THE CRB COMMODITY YEARBOOK 2006
Commodity Research Bureau
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Copyright © 2006 by Commodity Research Bureau. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 5724002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. ISBN 13 978-0-471-77182-1 ISBN 10 0-471-77182-1 Printed in the United States of America 10
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CRB believes that the information and opinions contained herein are reliable, but CRB does not make any warranties whatsoever, expressed or implied, and CRB assumes no liability for reliance on or use of information and opinion contained herein. Commodity Research Bureau Editorial Board
Editor in Chief Christopher J. Lown
Associate Editor Amy L. Kelley
Commodity Research Bureau 330 South Wells Street, Suite 612 Chicago, Illinois 60606-7110 USA 800.621.5271 or 312.554.8456 Fax: 312.939.4135 Website: www.crbtrader.com Email:
[email protected] Contributing Author Richard W. Asplund
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
6T 26T 28T 29T 30T 32T 34T 36T 37T 38T 48T 60T 317
The Commodity Price Trend 2001-06 Commodity Bull Market Posts New Record Highs Reuters-CRB Index Is Revised to Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index Commodity Index Funds Have Growing Bullish Influence Crude Oil Prices Post a New Record High in 2005 US Dollar Recovers in 2005 But Remains Vulnerable US Economic Expansion Continues Despite Hurricane Katrina World Economic Expansion Gains Strength China Continues to Drive World Commodity Prices Futures and Options Volume Statistics, U.S. Futures and Options Volume Statistics, Worldwide Conversion Factors Yearbook CD Instructions
PAGE
1 5 6 7 8 11 12 13 14 16 17 20 21 22 29 30 32 33 36 37 42 44 49 50 56 63 64 72 76 78 86 87 91 93 95 98 102 104 107 111 116 118 119 123 126 131 132 143 149 154 156 160
Aluminum Antimony Apples Arsenic Barley Bauxite Bismuth Broilers Butter Cadmium Canola (Rapeseed) Cassava Castor Beans Cattle and Calves Cement Cheese Chromium Coal Cobalt Cocoa Coconut Oil and Copra Coffee Coke Copper Corn Corn Oil Cotton Cottonseed and Products CRB Futures Index Currencies Diamonds Eggs Electric Power Fertilizers (Nitrogen, Phosphate & Potash) Fish Flaxseed and Linseed Oil Fruits Gas Gasoline Gold Grain Sorghum Hay Heating Oil Hides and Leather Hogs Honey Interest Rates, U.S. Interest Rates, Worldwide Iron and Steel Lard Lead Lumber and Plywood
165 166 168 172 174 176 178 179 180 184 185 186 189 191 192 196 198 203 205 210 214 218 220 223 228 230 231 233 234 239 243 248 254 262 266 272 273 275 276 278 279 283 285 288 289 290 293 295 296 300 311 314
Magnesium Manganese Meats Mercury Milk Molasses Molybdenum Nickel Oats Olive Oil Onions Oranges and Orange Juice Palm Oil Paper Peanuts and Peanut Oil Pepper Petroleum Plastics Platinum-Group Metals Pork Bellies Potatoes Rayon and Other Synthetic Fibers Rice Rubber Rye Salt Sheep and Lambs Silk Silver Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Soybeans Stock Index Futures, U.S. Stock Index Futures, Worldwide Sugar Sulfur Sunflowerseed and Oil Tall Oil Tallow and Greases Tea Tin Titanium Tobacco Tung Oil Tungsten Turkeys Uranium Vanadium Vegetables Wheat and Flour Wool Zinc
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors wish to thank the following for source material: Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) American Bureau of Metal Statistics, Inc. (ABMS) American Forest & Paper Association (AF & PA) The American Gas Association (AGA) American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) American Metal Market (AMM) Bureau of the Census Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME / IMM / IOM)
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Futures Industry Association (FIA) International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) Johnson Matthey Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) Leather Industries of America MidAmerica Commodity Exchange (MidAm) Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) National Coffee Association of U.S.A., Inc. (NCA) New York Cotton Exchange (NYCE / NYFE / FINEX)
Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Commodity Futures Trading Commision (CFTC) The Conference Board Economic Research Service (ERS) Edison Electric Institute (EEI) E D & F Man Cocoa Ltd Farm Service Agency (FSA) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fiber Economics Bureau, Inc. Florida Department of Citrus Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) Oil World The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Random Lengths The Silver Institute The Society of the Plastics Industry, Inc. (SPI) United Nations (UN) United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) United States Geological Survey (USGS) Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
5T
THE COMMODITY PRICE TREND The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index in 2005 closed the year up +16.9%, which was the fourth consecutive positive annual close (2004 +11.2%, 2003 +8.9%, 2002 +23.0%). In the previous recessionary year of 2001, the RJ/CRB Index fell – 16.3%.
such as Illinois. US carry-over of inventories rose sharply in 2005-06 (+15% for corn, +98% for soybeans), as demand failed to keep pace with the bumper crops.
Five of the six Reuters-CRB Sub-indices posted gains in 2005: Energy (+54.3%), Industrials (+30.3%), Softs (+22.4%), Precious Metals (+20.5%), and Grains (+9.5%). The Livestock (-1.1%) was the only sector to close lower in 2005. These Reuters-CRB sub-indices are based on the old ReutersCRB Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), which was replaced by the new Reuters/Jefferies Index midway through 2005.
The Reuters-CRB Industrials Sub-index, which is comprised of Copper and Cotton, accounts for 12% of the overall Index. The Industrials Sub-index showed a +30.3% gain in 2005, which more than reversed the –9.6% loss seen in 2004. Copper soared by 45% in 2005 (adding to the +43% gain seen in 2004 and the 50% gain seen in 2003), driven higher by very strong demand from the US and particularly China, combined with lagging mining output. Cotton gained +21% in 2005, despite a record 200506 US cotton crop, because of strong global demand for cotton.
The RJ/CRB Index was driven higher in 2005 by strong physical demand in most commodity markets, concerns about inflation due to higher energy prices, and an influx of investment cash into commodity index funds by individual and institutional investors looking for an inflation hedge, strong returns, and portfolio diversification. The dollar index rallied by +12.6% in 2005 and was a bearish factor for commodity prices, unlike 2002-2004 when the 30% plunge in the dollar was the main driver behind higher commodity prices. The US and China were the main engines of world economic growth in 2005 with US GDP growth remaining firm at +3.5% and Chinese GDP growth in 2005 continuing at the torrid pace of +10.1%. Energy The Reuters-CRB Energy Sub-index, which is comprised of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Natural Gas, accounts for 18% of the overall CRB Index. The Energy Sub-index in 2005 closed +54.4%, showing double-digit gains for the fourth consecutive year (2004 +27.5%, 2003 +11.9%, 2002 +56.5%). Petroleum product futures prices (nearest future) showed sharp gains of the year with crude oil up +40.5%, gasoline +57.1%, and heating oil up +40.5%. However, natural gas also rallied sharply by +82.6% on the year after the slight loss of –0.6% seen in 2004. Energy prices were driven higher in 2005 mainly by strong demand and concerns that production will not be able to keep up with demand. Hurricane Katrina on August 29, 2005 caused massive damage and oil rig production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico, but petroleum prices fell after the hurricane because of a small drop in US demand and a sharp pickup in overseas imports. Grains The Reuters-CRB Grains and Oilseeds Sub-index, which is comprised of Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat, accounts for 18% of the overall Index. The Grains and Oilseeds Sub-index in 2005 closed +9.5% yr/yr, recovering about one-half of the sharp –21.6% decline seen in 2004. The soybean and corn crops in 2005 turned in another bumper year performance despite a drought in some areas of the corn and soybean belt
6T
Industrials
Livestock The Reuters-CRB Livestock Sub-index, which is comprised of Live Cattle and Lean Hogs, accounts for 12% of the overall Index. The Livestock Sub-index closed –1.1% in 2005, falling back after the sharp +27.7% rally seen in 2004. Live cattle futures prices (nearest future) rallied +9.7% in 2005, adding to the +19.4% gain seen in 2004, as demand remained strong and cattle numbers in the US remained weak. Lean hog prices fell –14.6% on the year due to weaker demand, high slaughter rates, and price competition from chicken stemming from bird flu and weaker US chicken export demand. Precious Metals The Reuters-CRB Precious Metals Sub-index, which is comprised of Gold, Platinum, and Silver, accounts for 17% of the overall Index. The Precious Metals Sub-index rallied by +20.5% in 2005, which is the fourth consecutive year of strong gains (2004 +8.9%, 2003 +25.9%, and 2002 +17.1%). Bullish factors centered on lagging mining output and strong investment and jewelry demand. Softs The Reuters-CRB Softs Sub-index, which is comprised of Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, and Sugar #11, accounts for 23% of the overall Index. The Softs Sub-index in 2005 closed +22.4%, adding to the sharp +37.2% gain seen in 2004. The sector gains were driven primarily by sugar (+62.4%) and orange juice (+45.4%). Sugar prices were driven sharply higher by the inability of production to keep up with strong global demand, which was boosted even farther in 2005 by rising ethanol production. Orange juice prices were boosted by the second straight year of severe orange crop damage from hurricanes in Florida. Coffee (+3.2%) and cocoa (-2.8%) closed mixed in 2005.
CRB INDEXES
Monthly Reuters-CRB Futures Index Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close
Source: Reuters
High, Low and Close (1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
247.56 238.63 247.53 244.30 238.93 238.99 235.36 221.56 234.28 198.96 187.18 189.74 213.70 201.43 210.46 232.58 223.02 224.12 195.97 186.38 187.29 248.92 234.58 248.45 271.08 257.49 262.57 288.38 277.07 284.75
251.21 245.62 248.77 243.91 236.14 242.41 236.08 223.97 227.65 191.45 182.76 182.95 215.29 206.74 208.78 228.34 219.68 221.78 193.53 187.19 192.33 251.59 245.39 247.25 275.02 258.94 274.73 305.00 280.19 305.00
253.50 242.72 251.40 248.01 241.64 245.17 231.74 223.04 228.88 193.28 183.38 191.83 217.88 209.61 214.37 225.75 210.24 210.26 205.45 192.26 204.92 247.23 228.10 232.15 285.28 270.52 283.77 323.33 304.22 313.57
263.79 250.19 256.09 249.00 237.64 248.29 229.09 223.42 223.99 192.89 187.14 192.39 214.15 207.61 211.03 216.39 208.87 214.50 208.39 195.21 201.16 236.62 228.77 232.53 284.42 268.53 272.54 313.23 297.47 303.74
261.24 251.79 254.07 254.79 245.54 250.96 226.67 214.03 215.90 193.99 185.05 186.72 226.12 211.86 222.27 219.29 208.43 209.00 205.33 197.42 204.20 242.16 231.26 235.55 277.94 266.80 277.25 304.25 292.06 300.83
252.92 246.64 248.67 249.98 238.52 239.42 216.75 208.42 214.63 193.43 185.07 191.54 227.29 222.23 223.93 212.39 203.86 205.56 209.33 199.56 209.29 238.25 231.39 233.78 282.03 264.34 265.94 315.79 300.76 306.91
251.90 240.09 241.99 243.38 232.01 242.75 216.75 205.99 206.00 192.91 182.67 190.36 225.69 217.42 218.61 209.27 201.84 202.70 215.10 207.24 210.97 237.20 230.36 234.21 275.38 265.50 267.78 316.46 302.71 315.24
252.04 242.83 249.46 245.30 236.69 241.98 207.48 195.18 195.68 199.59 190.14 199.35 228.02 217.76 227.41 202.90 197.02 199.63 219.24 208.46 219.20 243.74 233.96 243.70 278.10 265.20 276.50 321.60 309.21 318.99
250.35 243.10 245.63 244.50 240.03 243.06 205.03 196.31 203.30 209.41 199.03 205.19 232.20 224.74 226.57 202.34 188.24 190.49 229.62 217.60 226.53 246.07 236.79 243.66 285.37 269.12 284.98 333.58 317.05 333.33
249.59 237.78 237.83 247.62 238.34 240.04 206.57 201.34 203.28 209.91 199.66 201.52 234.38 218.38 219.28 191.09 182.83 185.66 231.67 223.82 228.91 250.67 241.68 247.58 289.29 280.53 283.70 338.19 326.36 326.68
247.08 235.99 243.36 243.52 235.27 235.92 206.73 195.18 195.42 207.54 202.23 204.07 231.46 220.93 229.79 192.74 181.83 192.66 231.83 223.29 230.64 257.54 244.79 248.44 292.49 280.20 290.94 332.58 326.09 332.49
D e c.
Range
246.85 263.79 238.12 235.99 239.61 ---238.39 254.79 228.84 228.84 229.14 ---197.29 236.08 187.89 187.89 191.22 ---206.20 209.91 200.74 182.67 205.14 ---233.37 234.38 225.46 201.43 227.83 ---193.94 232.58 187.73 181.83 190.61 ---238.39 238.39 230.17 186.38 234.52 ---263.60 263.60 249.60 228.10 255.29 ---291.02 292.49 276.15 257.49 283.90 ---349.20 349.20 332.62 277.07 347.89 ----
7T
CRB INDEXES
8T
CRB INDEXES
9T
CRB INDEXES
10T
CRB INDEXES
11T
CRB INDEXES
12T
CRB INDEXES
13T
CRB INDEXES
14T
CRB INDEXES
15T
CRB INDEXES
16T
CRB INDEXES
17T
CRB INDEXES Reuters-CRB Futures Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
243.22 241.57 228.96 192.49 207.65 228.30 191.44 242.04 266.65 282.96
248.65 239.75 230.59 187.21 211.28 223.42 190.91 247.89 264.93 289.01
248.38 245.29 227.27 188.50 213.87 218.06 201.86 237.81 278.19 312.70
257.84 244.60 225.62 189.83 211.29 213.43 200.74 231.73 276.48 305.26
257.85 250.45 221.19 190.04 220.42 214.69 201.69 237.38 272.78 298.11
249.64 243.78 213.19 191.16 224.73 208.37 203.92 235.11 270.78 308.07
245.88 236.30 209.86 187.16 220.51 204.98 211.42 234.05 270.41 311.47
248.27 240.99 202.06 196.72 220.84 200.18 214.01 238.13 271.18 315.00
246.26 242.24 202.19 202.20 228.23 195.34 226.00 241.44 276.47 324.05
244.56 243.67 203.75 203.88 226.36 186.20 227.52 246.15 285.36 333.46
241.95 240.06 201.76 203.90 226.56 188.42 228.54 250.66 286.02 330.39
242.55 234.27 191.76 204.10 228.98 190.42 234.62 258.44 283.28 343.83
247.92 241.91 213.18 194.77 220.06 205.98 211.06 241.74 275.21 312.86
Source: Reuters
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Futures Index1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
243.22 241.57 228.96 192.49 207.65 228.30 191.44 242.04 266.65 282.96
248.65 239.75 230.59 187.21 211.28 223.42 190.91 247.89 264.93 289.01
248.38 245.29 227.27 188.50 213.87 218.06 201.86 237.81 278.19 312.70
257.84 244.60 225.62 189.83 211.29 213.43 200.74 231.73 276.48 305.26
257.85 250.45 221.19 190.04 220.42 214.69 201.69 237.38 272.78 298.11
249.64 243.78 213.19 191.16 224.73 208.37 203.92 235.11 270.78 306.97
245.88 236.30 209.86 187.16 220.51 204.98 211.42 234.05 270.41 308.04
248.27 240.99 202.06 196.72 220.84 200.18 214.01 238.13 271.18 318.76
246.26 242.24 202.19 202.20 228.23 195.34 226.00 241.44 276.47 326.19
244.56 243.67 203.75 203.88 226.36 186.20 227.52 246.15 285.36 326.44
241.95 240.06 201.76 203.90 226.56 188.42 228.54 250.66 286.02 315.27
242.55 234.27 191.76 204.10 228.98 190.42 234.62 258.44 283.28 327.58
247.92 241.91 213.18 194.77 220.06 205.98 211.06 241.74 275.21 309.77
1
New calculation begins June 20, 2005.
Source: Reuters
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Total Return Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
188.83 213.40 218.70 174.03 179.91 203.36 168.68 206.09 232.53 248.88
195.24 214.34 220.31 168.19 184.26 201.01 167.57 212.02 232.63 255.26
198.53 220.88 216.50 167.75 185.75 195.92 176.25 204.98 243.99 275.12
208.97 220.95 216.38 168.26 184.91 192.85 175.30 200.88 243.01 269.25
212.70 227.21 212.56 167.90 192.79 193.22 175.60 205.98 239.65 262.15
208.38 222.93 203.76 167.79 196.58 187.33 176.90 203.97 238.51 270.11
207.94 217.83 198.67 162.71 193.58 184.07 182.67 203.20 237.98 271.15
210.28 224.70 190.58 170.56 194.90 180.47 184.84 206.86 239.34 281.23
210.51 226.54 188.10 174.40 200.34 175.05 193.03 209.00 242.08 288.68
209.04 229.04 188.33 176.55 201.69 166.56 193.63 213.19 249.59 289.74
208.71 227.08 185.97 176.57 201.20 167.80 194.30 217.06 249.77 280.70
210.91 223.55 175.45 176.74 203.34 168.76 199.36 224.06 248.58 292.65
205.84 222.37 201.28 170.95 193.27 184.70 182.34 208.94 241.47 273.74
Source: Reuters
Reuters-CRB Livestock Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
18T
(01/02/1982 = 100)
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
201.57 266.08 239.60 206.47 247.36 254.81 249.43 252.70 248.90 305.39
207.41 264.82 234.03 220.47 249.80 254.62 251.46 242.32 250.53 294.73
216.98 262.53 226.72 218.75 257.10 262.97 243.59 240.06 266.53 302.88
230.40 279.54 235.29 222.97 262.53 259.27 216.16 237.27 274.15 295.95
248.31 282.22 235.76 226.14 256.37 252.40 209.26 251.07 291.60 293.97
241.82 268.15 229.99 219.14 251.37 257.32 199.59 248.86 294.91 269.99
258.82 271.58 207.42 198.18 243.94 257.15 206.70 245.33 292.29 266.35
264.31 265.42 197.30 206.89 229.65 248.31 196.98 244.63 285.44 269.80
260.11 257.26 189.93 209.31 228.34 240.83 197.76 261.29 287.72 280.26
253.94 245.92 199.85 221.68 233.64 230.82 217.97 264.33 287.29 288.27
256.55 244.43 186.52 227.97 239.69 227.86 234.73 264.96 296.26 292.59
260.00 242.39 180.88 239.13 251.99 237.26 247.80 255.07 297.60 297.62
241.69 262.53 213.61 218.09 245.98 248.64 222.62 250.66 281.10 288.15
Source: Reuters
CRB INDEXES Reuters-CRB Grains and Oilseeds Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
267.57 215.98 214.52 174.76 167.48 171.45 164.09 187.57 237.68 173.61
271.40 221.87 214.79 165.92 170.65 163.23 160.38 189.29 243.83 175.50
271.53 237.07 213.25 170.54 174.94 164.33 163.97 183.12 261.79 198.55
301.95 238.69 199.56 166.69 174.44 158.41 160.53 185.98 267.95 189.30
307.91 230.18 196.08 163.22 180.96 155.93 162.97 194.62 247.24 190.57
282.07 215.02 190.83 163.11 169.12 156.71 171.11 193.35 234.25 203.73
278.63 205.02 182.58 152.45 152.62 170.42 188.10 181.84 203.40 209.28
263.07 212.19 166.56 166.33 150.32 168.74 199.34 192.82 188.28 193.48
253.05 216.58 169.78 170.88 160.91 167.95 213.65 201.68 186.93 187.59
232.64 224.63 179.47 161.96 162.60 161.37 204.33 209.28 176.69 186.48
219.07 226.06 184.47 158.72 167.06 163.22 200.95 222.27 176.41 181.90
214.39 218.68 177.89 155.35 171.37 162.14 193.39 226.46 175.24 186.72
263.61 221.83 190.82 164.16 166.87 163.66 181.90 197.36 216.64 189.73
Source: Reuters
Reuters-CRB Softs Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
307.43 327.64 415.43 337.91 268.52 269.11 256.23 320.55 265.93 336.40
325.93 350.54 413.98 307.51 254.77 274.59 246.71 326.00 259.29 355.04
319.41 372.52 404.35 285.94 259.39 265.27 259.73 302.23 265.98 382.92
327.69 382.78 387.22 267.35 260.26 254.72 256.73 302.05 259.39 360.12
331.92 413.76 393.07 264.74 267.91 268.62 254.63 293.41 256.91 352.93
330.58 401.03 365.64 281.81 280.26 255.68 252.54 272.95 266.95 356.99
322.33 394.65 367.69 263.21 285.20 251.01 270.15 275.12 285.81 354.86
328.79 398.59 372.51 272.47 273.72 244.01 278.25 273.77 289.61 348.25
320.57 399.18 348.36 277.53 270.43 238.45 307.15 271.84 304.70 351.72
316.11 389.98 351.86 276.51 270.05 231.91 311.84 257.57 309.01 372.25
317.36 401.19 365.91 285.29 257.94 254.36 311.53 258.78 318.42 385.16
317.84 419.17 353.12 284.51 255.68 254.63 311.73 263.99 339.23 407.59
322.16 387.59 378.26 283.73 267.01 255.20 276.44 284.86 285.10 363.69
Source: Reuters
Reuters-CRB Precious Metals Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Year
Average.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
282.94 247.53 248.47 234.41 247.16 265.48 241.90 295.57 377.11 388.68
287.42 253.11 264.43 242.14 266.43 259.23 245.33 298.35 375.30 397.96
282.22 258.96 260.37 236.84 256.51 253.04 254.47 290.78 400.41 405.72
277.93 247.44 268.39 232.19 253.53 252.17 261.61 279.76 390.82 400.86
276.71 250.59 249.46 232.87 255.44 261.28 266.59 295.52 351.29 396.71
269.07 253.42 237.82 225.71 268.03 254.87 276.27 294.54 354.67 408.05
267.44 239.26 245.86 224.55 267.08 243.70 268.03 302.39 366.98 398.70
271.57 246.69 236.52 225.82 266.97 232.22 264.27 310.85 380.85 407.77
264.94 250.85 233.80 232.58 269.50 239.24 269.19 321.35 377.08 420.18
262.25 255.18 231.20 253.20 263.47 232.66 267.88 321.26 394.42 435.92
259.36 245.16 231.77 246.60 261.97 227.06 272.29 333.13 408.67 446.08
253.98 246.46 229.92 246.81 266.96 237.71 281.24 355.31 402.12 474.28
271.32 249.55 244.83 236.14 261.92 246.56 264.09 308.23 381.64 415.08
Source: Reuters
Reuters-CRB Industrials Sub-Index 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
(1967=100)
Jan.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
267.19 270.41 210.53 182.97 201.37 206.86 150.49 185.33 262.68 232.07
269.93 270.19 207.84 178.44 202.67 199.04 151.21 190.29 269.43 236.01
270.69 270.85 217.25 180.15 204.59 186.19 156.49 193.39 273.02 253.38
274.19 263.10 210.75 184.41 194.18 174.20 152.31 188.69 256.62 258.44
274.91 268.38 212.15 184.94 207.18 173.72 152.59 186.75 249.14 249.39
257.12 267.49 217.89 176.40 200.83 162.54 167.27 190.80 234.34 252.99
253.62 258.50 215.99 182.58 207.37 158.63 172.54 201.85 224.38 261.77
261.06 251.84 211.93 184.71 217.64 153.43 164.08 198.23 226.27 263.66
263.27 243.77 216.96 191.68 224.10 145.27 161.79 212.04 233.50 267.00
266.47 238.57 206.76 190.18 217.16 131.33 162.28 236.48 227.52 285.21
267.86 230.50 200.15 187.34 217.11 140.85 176.79 243.08 223.80 285.66
268.97 215.60 188.18 187.10 219.27 146.56 178.53 244.56 223.54 298.25
266.27 254.10 209.70 184.24 209.46 164.89 162.20 205.96 242.02 261.99
Source: Reuters
19T
CRB INDEXES Reuters-CRB Energy Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
172.90 220.04 172.94 134.58 231.38 345.00 195.20 337.33 371.45 478.71
172.23 202.43 174.02 129.41 245.97 328.00 202.12 375.64 355.20 491.25
180.81 197.71 167.87 146.56 254.09 312.27 243.96 346.99 376.02 563.52
188.88 191.95 175.68 169.80 244.62 319.96 262.72 313.78 384.99 567.69
184.71 200.26 167.64 174.02 278.91 308.23 269.34 328.18 426.01 526.48
182.51 190.52 160.86 180.31 308.81 292.65 258.24 342.51 419.28 595.62
190.10 192.73 159.57 196.88 301.39 267.20 260.08 332.71 438.34 628.00
197.32 205.97 150.85 219.08 328.52 269.05 274.04 343.58 459.75 716.27
211.80 212.80 166.17 228.80 366.18 253.17 301.33 317.98 475.69 803.00
222.07 225.03 163.45 225.66 356.34 232.68 301.49 338.95 574.75 797.33
215.48 211.70 153.67 225.76 366.76 214.70 278.41 331.81 535.62 716.36
220.02 188.21 133.38 223.94 361.93 206.92 311.52 361.52 475.97 733.16
194.90 203.28 162.18 187.90 303.74 279.15 263.20 339.25 441.09 634.78
Source: Reuters
Reuters-CRB Currencies Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
(1977=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
141.69 134.61 125.06 130.97 127.65 118.42 110.20 125.37 143.44 150.16
141.01 130.30 126.10 128.48 124.37 116.58 109.38 126.36 143.23 148.99
141.12 129.56 125.65 126.37 124.01 114.25 110.40 126.61 140.68 150.81
139.61 128.71 124.96 125.74 123.43 113.01 111.33 126.42 139.36 148.53
138.11 130.83 124.33 125.32 119.42 112.24 114.54 132.07 137.62 146.39
138.37 131.75 122.86 124.63 122.54 110.92 117.39 133.04 140.48 143.52
139.53 130.14 121.89 124.08 121.59 111.29 121.30 130.30 141.81 141.21
140.52 126.84 120.65 126.89 119.04 114.02 119.68 128.77 140.92 143.74
139.51 128.02 126.18 128.89 117.11 115.21 119.54 130.93 141.25 144.42
138.74 129.07 130.98 130.66 115.99 114.04 119.02 135.96 144.04 141.94
139.92 129.58 128.86 128.24 114.89 112.69 120.77 136.23 149.66 139.32
137.47 126.93 130.69 127.71 117.55 112.01 121.97 140.44 152.54 140.48
139.63 129.70 125.68 127.33 120.63 113.72 116.29 131.04 142.92 144.96
Source: Reuters
Reuters-CRB Interest Rates Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
117.19 111.73 117.89 121.32 100.05 108.79 109.51 115.27 NA 121.38
116.20 112.69 117.38 119.62 101.51 108.94 110.34 116.68 NA 122.44
112.99 110.78 116.89 118.11 102.61 109.86 107.65 116.88 123.94 118.91
111.43 109.74 116.99 118.56 103.99 108.61 108.31 116.13 118.47 120.81
110.52 111.02 116.87 116.57 101.80 107.69 109.04 119.22 115.30 123.07
109.76 112.12 118.00 112.78 103.65 107.90 110.08 120.42 114.52 124.63
110.19 113.61 118.13 112.32 104.12 108.24 111.45 116.27 117.46 123.04
111.53 113.14 119.09 110.71 105.21 109.63 114.14 113.02 119.91 122.40
110.24 113.73 121.67 108.79 105.10 110.74 116.24 113.86 121.02 122.52
111.89 114.68 122.67 106.42 105.57 112.26 115.54 NA 121.71 120.07
113.96 115.77 121.23 107.46 105.94 112.29 115.44 NA 121.25 119.11
113.43 116.46 122.33 104.56 108.44 108.97 115.27 NA 120.64 119.85
112.44 112.96 119.10 113.10 104.00 109.49 111.92 116.42 119.42 121.52
I ndex not calculated for September 16, 2003 to March 17, 2004 due the non-trading status of the 90-day T-Bill futures .
Reuters-CRB Energy Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
20T
(1977=100)
Source: Reuters
(1977=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
164.97 206.58 161.58 121.00 220.53 251.05 185.01 279.06 300.37 415.65
163.44 190.96 157.72 116.39 237.09 256.70 190.86 307.09 298.35 428.72
171.10 186.85 151.69 136.44 241.29 246.06 224.68 282.73 314.50 493.69
179.54 179.95 154.94 152.20 221.42 258.47 234.25 243.10 322.72 497.67
174.63 186.96 153.95 153.53 247.72 264.15 233.13 243.92 359.33 461.97
171.72 177.03 146.54 157.52 263.67 248.51 226.56 256.78 342.21 515.29
178.55 179.48 140.94 176.40 255.40 231.56 234.70 264.31 367.52 537.91
184.68 183.81 133.79 185.48 268.97 238.47 240.27 275.82 389.41 593.73
196.42 181.21 143.89 196.52 292.15 231.53 256.04 248.55 402.57 624.18
206.02 189.93 140.22 192.71 287.36 201.64 250.75 265.44 460.54 584.79
201.08 184.01 131.31 202.36 286.70 180.55 228.78 271.25 430.64 538.28
206.38 172.65 118.14 207.81 249.86 180.49 258.02 284.02 389.95 548.87
183.21 184.95 144.56 166.53 256.01 232.43 230.25 268.51 364.84 520.06
Source: Reuters
CRB INDEXES CRB Metals Sub-Index
(1967=100)
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
299.42 301.63 268.29 213.74 261.71 212.47 174.76 199.71 287.40 355.95
299.46 314.62 264.16 221.29 248.29 212.90 176.41 204.17 306.07 364.50
301.22 313.30 267.94 220.66 240.26 210.59 181.22 206.72 320.96 371.99
301.43 307.82 272.68 222.50 237.57 204.94 186.31 202.78 321.90 371.31
308.34 314.72 270.55 227.01 241.56 205.14 189.12 205.57 314.73 365.83
300.32 316.61 265.39 223.50 239.24 205.60 189.38 207.77 308.28 369.32
291.72 316.07 261.89 234.41 232.04 197.04 192.66 212.24 312.29 361.39
294.20 319.28 255.45 237.06 226.20 188.09 184.51 214.09 318.21 363.75
293.15 310.95 243.16 243.65 228.82 181.32 184.03 220.24 333.97 364.70
289.90 296.58 232.73 242.77 225.15 179.50 185.61 240.20 350.45 369.68
290.94 290.01 224.78 247.19 216.25 172.96 183.21 248.49 359.77 370.47
289.87 271.76 218.73 253.77 215.36 173.80 186.27 266.70 361.92 425.84
296.66 306.11 253.81 232.30 234.37 195.36 184.46 219.06 324.66 371.23
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
CRB Textiles Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
276.49 269.52 257.45 237.40 226.56 244.74 218.08 231.25 257.58 239.93
272.70 271.25 253.08 233.67 227.69 241.84 216.84 235.31 253.15 240.36
273.40 274.25 259.10 235.09 234.87 233.40 218.40 235.04 252.37 247.12
275.41 271.49 254.41 234.94 234.25 225.97 214.72 234.64 247.97 247.73
276.87 270.16 249.87 234.45 242.70 224.47 211.21 231.66 249.74 246.60
277.40 270.89 250.57 229.24 243.76 222.12 220.16 235.24 242.65 244.69
275.16 271.97 249.00 225.02 241.28 222.44 222.95 240.88 233.48 247.21
279.64 273.21 246.35 226.43 243.73 218.55 221.74 237.50 233.58 243.08
277.22 272.06 244.38 222.21 244.33 214.74 219.02 244.30 237.31 246.64
273.05 270.64 243.39 223.51 244.90 207.79 220.10 256.99 235.03 251.24
269.86 269.23 242.46 227.73 248.17 215.86 225.85 257.59 235.88 248.96
268.40 262.34 240.31 222.63 248.57 218.99 227.76 254.25 236.39 250.83
274.63 270.58 249.20 229.36 240.07 224.24 219.74 241.22 242.93 246.20
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
CRB Raw Industrials Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
330.62 339.39 299.61 262.81 267.85 254.54 219.05 255.85 312.24 320.94
327.90 344.54 296.85 259.65 260.91 248.53 222.33 258.59 309.54 324.57
330.35 340.99 302.89 255.03 260.39 246.35 231.03 260.97 316.77 333.31
333.51 333.63 301.25 251.75 258.23 244.03 230.38 258.79 318.52 336.68
340.92 336.84 305.40 250.07 265.37 244.29 231.81 257.65 312.98 331.99
336.13 337.30 299.72 248.91 261.78 245.92 243.72 260.47 308.40 331.88
334.42 334.89 295.56 253.43 255.19 244.22 245.38 263.77 308.84 325.29
343.27 340.47 290.17 255.96 255.69 238.10 240.53 263.99 307.54 324.52
343.73 337.33 280.98 262.56 258.81 228.30 240.77 273.24 315.25 329.36
334.71 334.47 275.73 266.37 257.29 220.52 240.68 291.18 315.13 332.79
330.34 327.64 268.88 270.39 252.58 218.94 243.04 295.88 320.52 332.83
333.02 310.56 265.94 267.30 256.00 221.57 248.21 302.30 322.65 349.53
334.91 334.84 290.25 258.69 259.17 237.94 236.41 270.22 314.03 331.14
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
CRB Foodstuffs Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
233.28 235.11 227.01 206.75 180.37 189.68 203.33 238.60 263.90 252.84
232.57 237.80 224.06 196.53 175.68 192.93 202.39 237.01 275.85 246.44
233.26 244.45 227.68 189.81 183.76 200.48 204.04 234.16 287.49 253.58
246.69 240.91 229.62 187.94 189.88 203.57 197.88 234.55 287.41 252.19
265.58 238.45 239.15 191.60 194.32 210.24 195.85 239.15 285.33 254.21
274.54 241.03 238.54 195.96 190.42 213.09 207.11 239.53 278.05 255.43
276.66 237.75 229.77 182.09 176.52 222.61 218.25 232.81 273.83 251.31
276.53 239.92 223.56 191.60 171.63 232.42 222.32 234.30 270.42 247.65
265.72 239.66 221.42 192.12 175.02 224.06 226.98 244.69 272.10 249.22
251.50 247.60 224.02 190.13 183.53 199.51 230.63 251.04 257.76 253.37
229.80 251.08 209.87 183.46 186.75 200.24 230.76 255.36 268.47 252.74
230.02 238.97 193.10 178.24 186.58 203.40 237.99 257.99 261.77 242.54
251.35 241.06 223.98 190.52 182.87 207.69 214.79 241.60 273.53 250.96
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
21T
CRB INDEXES CRB Fats and Oils Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
218.89 251.33 243.27 230.99 171.15 170.49 169.64 222.39 305.30 248.45
204.00 258.86 234.23 194.96 154.77 158.27 165.91 209.89 300.47 238.13
204.69 251.94 243.63 172.59 161.97 165.77 177.34 215.72 318.53 252.70
217.16 227.72 242.61 174.97 165.37 177.63 167.61 216.91 330.54 263.98
241.13 232.31 268.84 176.78 177.74 177.95 164.38 219.56 302.31 262.93
268.92 248.87 271.10 187.84 171.57 196.02 193.38 229.01 295.32 266.01
282.65 248.32 265.68 178.61 152.26 232.89 193.29 225.83 304.60 245.81
296.26 249.72 272.81 191.19 153.11 259.60 192.85 223.36 290.52 243.51
301.95 252.10 280.06 209.68 157.52 237.33 193.20 251.40 302.51 259.50
264.15 283.11 277.37 209.53 160.41 177.05 193.90 285.47 267.12 268.43
216.42 288.95 249.93 194.38 165.44 174.66 211.97 288.08 279.42 269.77
232.10 269.92 231.77 177.98 167.35 184.78 230.05 292.22 271.36 231.17
245.69 255.26 256.78 191.63 163.22 192.70 187.79 239.99 297.33 254.20
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
CRB Livestock Sub-Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Year
Average.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
302.41 361.37 286.77 249.71 261.83 267.57 251.61 316.67 372.16 359.25
296.63 356.89 265.73 231.27 245.67 250.14 260.32 308.65 353.19 341.74
301.21 343.71 279.13 216.59 252.65 261.05 274.95 310.49 362.41 353.05
310.30 333.09 280.03 231.92 258.44 273.14 257.32 311.25 369.65 373.63
334.30 338.67 309.09 236.71 268.41 288.88 256.33 320.03 369.31 377.41
338.42 338.44 301.80 241.07 260.53 306.84 289.40 333.29 374.28 361.10
358.24 343.09 281.81 235.92 241.72 329.73 288.22 324.58 395.48 330.39
379.90 342.90 281.60 254.64 238.62 341.78 279.03 327.63 392.33 331.75
386.88 338.44 258.47 274.60 245.35 313.84 274.13 361.30 395.40 349.24
360.36 344.87 256.56 294.16 252.78 260.77 276.94 386.60 365.68 358.04
338.92 340.87 232.29 279.97 240.45 252.97 288.86 385.63 373.69 369.98
352.93 323.03 217.99 272.14 259.65 264.23 313.14 372.48 370.63 337.97
338.38 342.11 270.94 251.56 252.18 284.25 275.85 338.22 374.52 353.63
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
CRB Spot Index 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
(1967=100)
Jan.
(1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
286.76 292.16 267.54 238.31 227.91 225.75 212.55 248.72 291.55 291.19
285.00 296.14 264.66 231.76 222.00 224.13 214.02 249.60 295.38 290.08
286.60 297.68 269.59 226.07 225.85 226.51 219.65 249.73 304.54 298.13
294.89 292.11 269.67 223.61 227.78 226.66 216.54 248.66 305.49 299.24
307.90 292.54 276.42 224.55 233.68 229.81 216.43 250.00 301.44 297.73
309.50 294.07 273.07 225.83 229.89 231.98 228.09 251.77 295.70 298.26
309.55 291.18 266.71 221.44 219.54 235.20 233.96 250.71 294.10 292.80
314.30 295.14 260.89 227.35 217.28 235.83 232.98 251.49 291.86 290.63
309.47 293.41 254.96 231.10 220.60 226.62 235.10 261.25 296.90 293.94
297.86 295.82 253.34 232.12 224.15 211.72 236.59 274.11 290.35 297.75
284.84 294.16 242.99 230.78 223.29 211.15 238.01 278.66 298.19 297.48
286.33 279.06 233.36 226.54 224.99 214.01 244.06 283.38 296.26 301.05
297.75 292.79 261.10 228.29 224.75 224.95 227.33 258.17 296.81 295.69
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
22T
(12/31/1969=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
194.61 214.62 170.94 135.29 200.14 239.18 168.97 241.74 269.18 324.47
195.08 194.88 168.98 132.37 211.15 231.54 172.75 264.19 266.23 332.80
200.85 192.88 164.28 143.86 214.19 220.13 193.58 246.70 280.10 374.05
212.77 191.24 165.89 155.40 200.42 222.86 199.87 221.68 284.06 371.68
209.40 198.60 161.48 156.81 219.11 222.32 200.65 228.18 303.19 350.65
202.05 186.50 154.50 158.22 230.07 213.26 197.07 235.01 292.63 382.96
202.81 185.35 149.22 165.21 222.13 202.89 203.12 233.18 298.97 396.64
199.12 194.25 141.12 177.60 230.88 203.76 208.76 241.35 308.01 431.85
202.64 197.20 148.40 187.64 247.73 197.04 223.69 228.54 315.29 455.28
209.63 205.75 149.57 184.89 243.67 178.07 222.70 242.22 356.70 444.90
210.81 199.35 144.64 191.84 251.82 169.63 212.18 246.24 341.12 418.56
220.70 181.94 131.72 194.62 244.79 167.74 230.03 261.23 314.25 435.45
205.04 195.21 154.23 165.31 226.34 205.70 202.78 240.86 302.48 393.27
Source: Goldman Sachs
Ad Page 2 CRB InfoTech CD
CRB Futures Perspective CRB Historical Wall Charts and Desk Sets 23T
2001-06 COMMODITY BULL MARKET POSTS NEW RECORD HIGHS
The Reuters-CRB index in 2005 and early 2006 extended the rally that began in 2001 and posted a new record high, taking out the previous record high seen back in November 1980. Over the course of the 2001-06 bull market, the Reuters-CRB index has now rallied by a total of 91.6% through the end of January 2006. The extension of the rally seen in 2005 and early 2006 succeeded in moving the 2001-06 rally ahead of the 197780 rally and into second place, as seen in the table below. The current rally of 91.6% is now second only to the +146.7% rally seen in 1971-74. The rally in commodity prices during the 1970s stemmed mainly from a serious inflation outbreak driven by an expansive fiscal policy, a surge in oil prices, and an overly accommodative Fed monetary policy. The CPI finally peaked at +14.8% in March 1980 when Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s monetary crackdown started to succeed in slowing inflation. The Fed’s crack-down on inflation caused the double-dip recessions of 1979-80 and 198182, and also caused commodity prices to fall sharply in the first half of the 1980s. In the current commodity bull market, by contrast, the US CPI index continues to be relatively well-behaved, even including the surge in energy prices. The CPI ended 2005 at +3.4%, which is well below the 4-decade US average of +4.7%. The core CPI ended 2005 in even better shape at +2.2%, only slightly above the 2.0% level that
many central bankers consider to be the ceiling for acceptable inflation. In fact, during the current 2001-06 commodity bull market, the CPI has averaged a modest +2.4%, which is well below the average of +4.9% seen during the 1971-74 rally and the +10.2% average seen during the 1977-80 rally (see table below). The nearby chart shows how the Reuters-CRB index has shown much stronger growth than the CPI index since 1992 and particularly during the 200106 commodity bull market. The subdued behavior of inflation during the current commodity bull market illustrates that factors other than inflation are driving commodity prices higher. During the first 3 years of the commodity bull market in 200104, the dollar plunged by 33% and was the main factor driving commodity prices higher. Commodities, as real assets, typically rise in price when the currency in which they are quoted depreciates in value. The nearby chart shows how commodity prices rallied sharply during 200104 when the dollar plunged. In fact, the weekly correlation of the Reuters-CRB index and the dollar index over the 2001-04 period was remarkably strong with a negative correlation of -0.95, illustrating the close connection between the weak dollar and strong commodity prices. However, commodity prices in 2005 continued to rally even when the dollar reversed direction and went into an upward correction mode in 2005. The dollar index rallied
Commodity Bull Markets Ranked by Percentage Gain (1960-2006) ---------------------- Low ----------------------
1971-74 2001-06 1977-80 1986-88 1992-96
October 1971 October 2001 August 1977 July 1986 August 1992
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
24T
96.40 182.83 184.70 196.16 198.17
---------------------- High ----------------------
February 1974 January 2006 November 1980 Ju n e 1988 April 1996
237.80 350.38 337.60 272.19 263.79
Percent Rally
Rally Duration (months)
Avg CPI (yr-yr% )
146.7% 91.6% 82.8% 38.8% 33.1%
28 51 39 23 44
4.9% 2.4% 10.2% 3.2% 2.8%
by 12.8% in 2005, and yet commodity prices rallied in the face of dollar strength and closed +16.9% higher on the year. The main reason commodity prices rallied in 2005, even in the face of dollar strength, was simply strong underlying demand for physical commodities. In other words, macroeconomic effects such as inflation and the dollar took a back seat to fundamental supply and demand factors, in particular commodity markets. The energy and metals sectors were the main commodity sectors driving the commodity indices higher in 2005. China’s growing demand for energy, industrial, and construction commodities was the key factor driving these sectors higher. In addition to the strong demand, production supply in these sectors has been limited because of years of underinvestment in new production, refining, and extraction facilities. The sharp rise in prices will slowly cause producers to increase supply, but due to the large cost and size of such facilities, the process of boosting supply will be slow. In the meantime, prices could continue to rise.
tion of the record 1971-74 rally), strong physical demand can continue to push commodity prices even higher. It will be some time before production can catch up with demand in the energy and metals complexes. Moreover, there is the chance for a renewed weakness in the dollar in 2006, which by itself could propel commodity prices higher as it did in the 2001-04 period. Thus, commodity prices in 2006 could very well continue to rally, with any downside movement likely to constitute only a correction in an overall secular bull market. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
Chinese demand has had less impact in the agricultural markets. China is a large agricultural and meat producer in its own right, and China’s need to import agricultural products is therefore less than for energy, industrial, and construction products. Moreover, producers in the agricultural markets can respond more quickly with higher production when prices are high, meaning that prices can more quickly revert to the mean in agricultural markets. The fact that commodity prices continued to march higher in 2005, despite subdued inflation and a stronger dollar, suggests that the 2001-06 commodity bull market may have substantially further to go. Even though the current rally has already reached a record length of 51 months (which is much longer than the 28-month dura-
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REUTERS-CRB INDEX IS REVISED TO REUTERS-JEFFERIES CRB INDEX The Reuters-CRB index was renamed the Reuters/ Jefferies CRB index as of June 20, 2005. The index was also significantly revised. The commodities in the index were changed with the addition of aluminum, nickel and unleaded gasoline, and the removal of platinum. In addition, the weighting of each commodity was changed to a specific level versus the previous method of equal weightings. The 19 commodities in the new index are divided into 4 groups. Within each group, the weighting is the same for each commodity. Group 1 is the petroleum group, Groups 2 and 3 have liquid commodities, and Group 4 has commodities that may add diversification benefits. Looking at the commodities by sector, the big winner in the weighting change was the petroleum sector, which nearly tripled in weight to 33% from the old 12% level. The industrial metal sector rose to 13% from 12%. The other sectors fell in their weightings: grains to 13% from 18%, livestock to 7% from 12%, precious metals to 7% from 12%, and softs to 21% from 30%. The nearby chart shows how the new and old CRB indices have fared since the introduction of the new index on June 20, 2005. The new RJ/CRB index has clearly underperformed the old index (which is now called the “Continuous Commodity Index”) in the past several months. The new RJ/CRB index has lagged the old index Ne w Re ute rs /Je ffe rie s CRB Inde x: Commodity We ighting Change s Inde x We ight
Pre vious We ight
Change
WTI Crude Oil Heating Oil Unleaded Gas
23% 5% 5%
5.88% 5.88% 0
+17.1% - 0.9% - 5.0%
5.88% 5.88% 5.88% 5.88% 5.88% 0 5.88%
+.1% +.1% +.1% +.1% +.1% +6.0% +.1%
5.88% 5.88% 5.88% 5.88%
- 0.9% - 0.9% - 0.9% - 0.9%
0 5.88% 5.88% 5.88% 5.88%
+1.0% - 4.9% - 4.9% - 4.9% - 4.9%
Commodity
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group 4
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Total
33%
Natural Gas Corn Soybeans Live Cattle Gold Aluminum Copper
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Total
42%
Sugar Cotton Cocoa Cattle
5% 5% 5% 5%
Total
20%
Nickel Wheat Lean Hogs Orange Juice Silver
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Total
5%
mainly because energy prices, which are heavily weighted in the new index, moved lower in late 2005 and showed renewed weakness in early 2006. In addition, the new index gives less weight to precious metals, which have rallied sharply in recently months. Gold has about the same weighting, but silver’s weighting dropped to 1% from 5.88% and platinum was dropped altogether from the new index. Based on backward-looking simulations, however, the new RJ/CRB index has performed much better than the old Reuters-CRB index. According to data provided by Reuters/Jefferies, the RJ/CRB index showed an annualized return of +8.4% over the 10-year period ending 6/17/ 2005, which was better than the +2.8% annual return of the old Reuters-CRB index, the +6.9% annual return for the Goldman Sachs Commodity index, or the +5.1% annual return for the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index. The new RJ/CRB index also outperformed the other commodity indices in the 5-year period through 6/17/2005. The behavior of the new RJ/CRB index going forward will obviously be much more heavily dependent on energy prices. However, the new and old CRB indices have a fairly high correlation of 0.83, according to Reuters/ Jefferies. The intent of the index revision was to create a commodity index that commodity index funds can track more easily. The new index has a monthly arithmetic rebalancing schedule versus the old fixed geometric average averaging. In addition, the former 6-month forward pricing average has been changed to a nearby rollover schedule. Further information on the change in the RJ/CRB index is available at the New York Board of Trade web site at www.nybot.com. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
COMMODITY INDEX FUNDS HAVE GROWING BULLISH INFLUENCE Commodity Index Funds are having a growing influence in boosting commodity prices. Commodity Index Funds invest cash from investors in commodities through a “buy and hold” strategy. These “long-only” funds are different than the speculative futures funds that seek to earn large returns by trading frequently and going either long or short in the futures markets. Investor interest in Commodity Index Funds has stemmed in large part from the huge bull market in commodity prices seen in the past 4 years. The RJ/CRB index has rallied by a total of 91.6% from October 2001 through January 2006. The S&P 500, by contrast, has rallied by an overall 68.5% during the 2002-06 bull market, underperforming commodities by 23.1 percentage points. On an annualized basis, the RJ/CRB index since 2000 has shown an average annual return of 10.5 percentage points more than the S&P 500, meaning that an investor would have earned 10.5 percentage points more by investing in RJ/CRB commodities than the S&P 500. Moreover, the return on Commodity Index Funds is actually higher than the percentage annual price gain because additional returns can be earned by rolling futures month positions forward. The additional roll returns can be as much as 10-20% per year. Commodity Index Funds also provide portfolio benefits by lowering the overall risk of the portfolio since commodity prices typically have zero or even negative correlation with stock prices. The nearby chart shows how commodity returns have fared relative to stock returns. The chart shows the number of percentage points by which the RJ/CRB index has exceeded or fallen below the S&P 500. Since 1960, the RJ/CRB index has actually under-performed the S&P 500 by an average 4.7 percentage points per year. Since 2000, however, the RJ/CRB index has far outperformed the S&P 500, showing why investors are taking a strong interest in commodities. Specifically, the RJ/CRB index’s gain of 11.1% in 2000 exceeded the -10.1% decline in the S&P 500 index by +21.2 percentage points. In subsequent years, the RJ/CRB index’s annual excess return versus the S&P 500 was -3.3 percentage points in 2001 (i.e., the RJ/CRB’s annual return of -16.3% minus the S&P 500’s annual return of -13.0%), 46.4 pct points in 2002 (23.0% vs -23.4%), -17.5 pct points in 2003 (8.9% vs 26.4%), 2.2 pct points in 2004 (11.2% vs 9.0%) and 13.9 pct points in 2005 (16.9% vs 3.0%). To get an idea of the extent of new money flowing into Commodity Index Funds, Barclays Capital in London issued a reported on January 3, 2006 estimating that commodity index funds in 2005 rose by $25-30 billion to a total of about $80 billion. Moreover, Barclays is predicting that another $30 billion will flow into Commodity Index Funds in 2006, bringing the total to $110 billion.
The growing interest in commodity investing is causing more investment banks to open funds dedicated to tracking commodity indices. Scudder opened a fund in March 2005 called the Scudder Commodity Fund. This added to established commodity funds such as Pimco’s Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund, Oppenheimer’s Real Asset Fund, and Jim Rogers’ International Raw Materials Fund. At the end of Q1-2005, the Pimco fund had a hefty $4.6 billion of assets under management. The new money flowing into Commodity Index Funds has had a direct and immediate effect in boosting commodity prices, regardless of the supply/demand fundamentals of the particular marketplace. The heavy buying by Commodity Index Funds at the beginning of 2006 was a major factor boosting commodity prices in January 2006, when the RJ/CRB index rallied sharply by +22.4%. Seasonally, the bulk of the new cash coming into Commodity Index Funds arrives in the first half of the year. That means the buying generally tapers off as the year goes on. The Commodity Index Funds are likely to have an enduring and growing bullish influence on commodity prices in coming years. New money is flowing into the Funds, not only to capture the recent high returns, but also to diversify portfolio risk. As new fund vehicles are created and the capacity for commodity investing increases, more individual and institutional money is likely to flow into the sector. That new money will quickly translate into new buying in the commodity markets. The chances of any net selling from the Funds seems to be low for at least the next several years. That means that commodity prices should have continuing support from the Commodity Index Funds, pushing prices higher and in any case cushioning any downside corrections stemming from supply/demand factors, macroeconomic factors, or external shocks. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
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CRUDE OIL PRICES POST A NEW RECORD HIGH IN 2005
Crude oil futures prices in 2005 extended the rally that began in November 2001 and posted a record high of $70.85 on the nearest-futures chart on August 30, 2005. That was the day after Hurricane Katrina hit in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil prices during the 2001-05 rally have increased more than four-fold from the $16.70 per barrel level seen when the bull market began in November 2001. While oil prices hit a record high in nominal terms in August 2005, oil prices in real (inflation-adjusted) terms were still about 30% below the record high posted back in 1982, as seen in the nearby chart. Oil prices spiked higher in the early 1980s due to the Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. Thus while oil prices are currently near a record high in nominal terms, businesses and consumers are not being hit as hard in inflation-adjusted terms as they were back in the early 1980s. The current rally in oil prices is different than the rallies seen back in the 1970’s through the 1990’s, which were driven mainly by temporary supply disruptions. The current rally is being driven by strong demand and capacity restraints, factors that are likely to remain in place in coming years. The nearby chart shows how world oil demand reached a record high of 86.2 million barrels per day at the end of 2005. World oil demand has in fact grown sharply by 13% since the oil price bull market began in 2001. Much of the fresh demand is coming from
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China where oil imports rose steadily in 2003-04 and edged even higher in 2005. China’s rapidly expanding industrial and consumer sectors are demanding more petroleum every day. Meanwhile, supply has had trouble keeping pace with demand. OPEC boosted its production in 2003-04 but OPEC production through 2005 was flat near 30 million barrels per day. OPEC members are hitting capacity constraints and cannot pump any more oil to take advantage of high oil prices. Saudi Arabia has announced plans to boost its capacity so that it has a buffer in the event of a major supply disruption. However, expanding oil production capacity will take time.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC producers have failed to pick up the slack. There had been high hopes that Russia would be the producer that would come to the rescue and flood the market with new oil production. However, the Russian government meddled in the private oil industry by effectively expropriating Yukos in 2004 and overall Russian oil production has remained inefficient and stagnant. Moreover, Russia is now seen as an unreliable energy producer after it preemptively cut off natural gas shipments to eastern Europe in 2005 in a payment dispute. That created alarm in Europe about the need to secure more reliable sources of petroleum and natural gas. Oil prices rallied sharply in the first half of 2005 on speculative buying and concerns about production capacity constraints. Oil prices finally peaked at $70.85 on August 30, 2005, the day after Hurricane Katrina hit the Louisiana and Alabama coast in the Gulf of Mexico. Katrina caused massive damage to oil rigs and pipeline distribution systems in the Gulf of Mexico and also caused shutdowns of oil refineries in the area. Before oil production had a chance to recover from Katrina, Hurricane Rita hit the Texas coast on September 24, 2005, causing extensive damage to oil rigs on the Texas side of the Gulf of Mexico. Crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico came to a halt after each hurricane and then remained 60% shut down through October and 25% shut down even into February 2006 (see www.mms.gov). Nevertheless, oil prices fell in September through November 2005 because (1) President Bush opened the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, (2) international
oil reserves were also opened, (3) speculators were washed out of their large long positions, and (4) there was a sharp increase in imports into the US of crude oil and gasoline from overseas. The recovery of the oil market from Hurricane Katrina was an impressive display of the power of free markets to adjust to disruptions. High oil prices did their job in drawing in new supply and temporarily reducing oil demand in the US. Crude oil inventories showed a sharp decline of 6% in the month following Katrina, but those inventories were quickly replaced just a month later. Oil inventories then remained at comfortable levels for the remainder of 2005, allowing oil prices to drop. After steadily declining in September-November 2005, oil prices then rallied sharply again in December and January, mainly because talks with the Iranians about their nuclear research intentions broke down. The market was concerned that Iran might retaliate with an oil export cut-off in response to UN referral and possible sanctions. However, oil prices then fell back in February when Iran was referred to the UN Security Council but said it would not retaliate with oil. Yet the US and Europe will be applying progressively more pressure on Iran about its nuclear research program, and the possibility still exists that Iran might retaliate with an export shutdown, which would undoubtedly cause oil prices to soar to new record highs. The outlook for oil prices in coming years remains generally bullish because of strong demand and capacity constraints among producers. The age of cheap oil appears to be over. Moreover, the oil market will remain subject to sharp upward spikes based on any supply disruptions from wars, terrorist strikes, weather, or politically-inspired export cutoffs (e.g., from Iran). In addition, speculators and investors are piling into long positions in the oil market due to the talk in the media about a possible super-spike in oil prices in the future. However, the oil market is currently well-supplied and inventories are comfortable, meaning there is some near-term downward pressure on oil prices. Oil prices in any case are likely to remain volatile in 2006 and will continue to play a key role in influencing the global economy. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
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US DOLLAR RECOVERS IN 2005 BUT REMAINS VULNERABLE
The US dollar index in 2005 rallied by +12.8% and recovered 30% of the plunge seen in 2002-04. Despite the recovery in the dollar in 2005, however, commodity prices were able to rally sharply because of fundamental supply/demand factors in each particular commodity market. During the 2002-04 commodity bull market, by contrast, commodity prices were driven higher mainly by the 33% depreciation in the dollar. The dollar continues to be a critical factor for commodity prices looking ahead. If the dollar continues to rally in 2006, that would be a bearish factor for commodity prices. By contrast, if the dollar goes back into its bear trend later in 2006 when the US Federal Reserve is done tightening, then commodity prices will receive a major new bullish push that could drive commodity prices higher regardless of fundamental supply/demand factors in particular commodity markets. The main factor driving the dollar higher in 2005 was the sharp rise in US interest rate differentials, as seen in the nearby interest rate differential charts. Higher US short-term interest rates encouraged foreign investors to put their cash into the US money markets to earn a higher yield than they could earn in Europe or Japan. The Fed’s tighter monetary policy also meant that the Fed was pumping fewer dollar reserves into the nation’s banking system, making dollars a bit less plentiful. The US Federal Reserve started raising its federal funds rate target in June 2004 from the 1.00% level that prevailed during the previous year. The Fed from June
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2004 through January 2006 raised its funds rate target by a total of 3.50 percentage points, from 1.00% to 4.50%. As of early 2006, the market consensus was that the Fed would likely raise its funds rate target by another 50 basis points by summer 2006. Over the course of the Fed’s 350 basis point tightening, the European Central bank only implemented one small 25 basis point rate hike to 2.25% in December 2005, and the Bank of Japan left in place its extraordinarily accommodative zero-interest-rate monetary policy. That meant that US interest rate differentials rose by roughly 350 basis points against European and Japanese shortterm rates. Despite the rally in the dollar in 2005, the US trade deficit continues to be a major bearish factor for the dollar. The US trade deficit in 2005 widened to $726 billion, expanding to a new record for the fourth straight year. The 2005 US trade deficit amounted to a record 5.8% of US GDP. Meanwhile, the US current account balance, which is the broadest measure of US trade with the rest of the world and includes goods, services, and transfer payments, also expanded to a record high in 2005. As a percentage of US GDP, the US current account deficit hit a record high of -6.5% of GDP in Q1-2005 and then fell back slightly to -6.2% of GDP by Q3-2005. There are many reasons for the massive US current account deficit. Reasons include both short-term cyclical factors that will reverse in due course, and long-term structural factors that will not correct for years or even
decades. Short-term factors include (1) the surge in oil prices seen in the past 3 years which has sharply boosted the dollar value of imported oil, (2) the fact that the US business cycle remains ahead of its key trading partners which means that US demand for imports is relatively strong and foreign demand for US exports is relatively weak, and (3) importers into the US have not raised prices substantially in response to the weak dollar but have instead accepted lower profit margins, meaning import prices haven’t risen far enough to slash import demand. Long-term structural factors behind the US current account deficit include (1) the huge US appetite for foreign imported oil, (2) the improved comparative advantage of nations such as China and India which have cheap labor and the resources to employ that labor into export powerhouses, and (3) the poor US household savings rate and the massive US federal budget deficit, which means the US must import a huge amount of capital to cover its capital needs (boosting the capital account surplus and the US current account deficit as well). The US trade deficit with China continues to be a key factor behind the rising overall US trade deficit. The US trade deficit with China reached a new record high of $202 billion in 2005, up 25% from the $162 billion deficit in 2004. The US trade deficit with China by itself comprised 28% of the overall US trade deficit. The US trade deficit with China is a source of major discontent in the US because China is fixing its currency at an undervalued level, giving China a greater competitive advantage than it deserves. China revalued the yuan by a slight
2.1% in July 2005, but that was a drop in the bucket compared to estimates that the Chinese yuan is undervalued by as much as 20-30%. China appears to be intent on keeping the yuan at undervalued levels for at least the next several years. Looking ahead, the dollar could run into trouble later in 2006 when the US Federal Reserve is done tightening. The market is currently expecting the Fed to raise its funds rate target by another 50 basis points by summer 2006 and dollar strength is likely to continue until the Fed’s last tightening. But when the Fed is done tightening, US interest rate differentials will turn sideways and capital flows into the US may slow. The US will still be a highly attractive destination for foreign investment because of comparatively high short-term rates, a strong stock market, and deep and transparent markets. However, the foreign exchange market could then turn its attention back to the massive US current account deficit, with bearish consequences for the dollar. Market participants should therefore remain on guard for a possible drop in the dollar later in 2006, which would have bullish consequences for commodity prices and potentially bearish consequences for the US stock and bond markets. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
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US ECONOMIC EXPANSION CONTINUES DESPITE HURRICANE KATRINA
The US economy in 2005 powered along at a GDP growth rate of +3.5% despite major obstacles such as record oil prices, the Fed’s steady tightening regime, and Hurricane Katrina. The 2005 GDP growth rate of +3.5% was down from +4.2% in 2004, but was close to potential US GDP and the 5-decade US average GDP of +3.6%. As of early 2006, the market consensus was that US GDP in 2006 would remain firm at +3.4%. The Federal Reserve in 2005 continued the monetary tightening process that began in June 2004. From June 2004 through January 2006, the FOMC raised its federal funds rate target by a total of 350 basis points from the 1.00% level that prevailed in the year prior to June 2004 to the most recent level of 4.50% seen in February 2006. The marketplace is generally expecting another 50 basis points of tightening to 5.00% by summer 2006. Alan Greenspan finally stepped down as Fed Chairman on January 31, 2006 after 18-1/2 years at the helm. The marketplace was pleased with President Bush’s appointment of Ben Bernanke to take over as the new Fed Chairman. However, there is some concern that Mr. Bernanke may be relatively hawkish early in his term in order to establish his inflation-fighting credentials. Mr. Bernanke is also known to favor an inflation target. Since inflation is currently running near or slightly above the upper limit of an assumed inflation target range of about 1-2%, there is some concern that Mr. Bernanke may be in favor of more tightening than the market currently expects. The US CPI ended 2005 at +3.4%, which is well above the levels that most central banks believe is acceptable. However, the main reason for the elevated CPI was high
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energy prices. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, was in fact much better behaved at +2.2% as of the end of 2005. The core PCE deflator, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation target, also remained in decent shape, ending 2005 at +1.9%, at the lower end of the range seen from mid-2004 through 2005. The Fed has repeatedly said that it believes inflation is “contained” on a longer-term basis. However, the Fed in 2005 was worried that elevated energy prices might seep into generalized inflation and that inflation expectations might rise. The Fed therefore kept its tightening process going even through Hurricane Katrina in response to the high overall CPI rate. There is no evidence as yet that elevated energy prices are causing a generalized inflation breakout, but the Fed is nevertheless being cautious and is continuing its tightening regime. The Fed originally cut its federal funds rate to 1.00% in mid-2003, and left it at that extraordinarily low level for a year, to ensure that the US did not go into a deflationary mode after the US stock market bubble burst back in 2000 and the US economy experienced a brief recession from March to November 2001. The Fed has since raised its funds rate target sharply by 350 basis points to 4.50%. The current 4.50% funds rate target is 230 basis points above the core CPI rate of +2.2%. The current 230 basis point spread of the funds rate above the core CPI is 38 basis points more than the average spread of 192 basis points seen since 1985. However, the current 230 basis point spread is still 70 basis points lower than the average 304 basis point spread seen during the latter half of the 1990’s when US GDP averaged 4.0%. That suggests that while the Fed is getting closer to a so-called “neutral” funds rate target, another 50 basis points or so
of tightening is likely to get the funds rate to its historical averages. The US economy in 2005 performed remarkably well considering the surge in oil prices through 2004 and the first half of 2005. Over that time frame, crude oil prices more than doubled and hit a record high of $70.85 on August 30, 2005. Most economists would have predicted a recession if they had prior knowledge that oil prices would surge as high as $70 and remain above $50 per barrel for an extended period of time. Yet the US economy has so far been able to take in stride the surge in oil prices and continue moving ahead with a respectable GDP growth rate in the mid-3% area. The US economy also faced talk of a recession after Hurricane Katrina hit on August 29, 2005. Hurricane Katrina caused the evacuation and shut-down of New Orleans and caused US consumer confidence across the country to plunge. There was concern that Katrina might cause a further upward spike in oil and gasoline prices, although that never occurred. Still, the US labor market took a heavy hit for several months. Katrina, along with weak auto sales in Q4, did end up undercutting US GDP, which fell to +1.1% in Q4-2005. Looking ahead, the US economic outlook is generally favorable. Although the Fed has raised short-term rates by 350 basis points in the past 1-1/2 years, the 10-year Tnote yield has moved roughly sideways over that time frame. The low level of long-term US interest rates has been a major positive factor for the US stock market and for the US housing market by keeping mortgage rates low. As long as US inflation remains contained, and longterm US interest rates remain low, the US economy should
be able to maintain its forward momentum. Other positive economic factors in early 2006 included a pickup in consumer spending in January 2006, expectations for solid business investment, and improving economic growth in Europe and Japan. However, there are still a number of economic risks for the remainder of 2006. The most serious risk is the possibility of an oil price spike, possibly tied to conflict over Iran’s nuclear program. A new upward spike in oil and gasoline prices would cause US consumer sentiment to plunge, and would hurt corporate profits and the US stock market. An upward spike in oil prices could also prompt the Fed to tighten its funds rate target further in order to counter inflation expectations. Another risk is the US housing market. The US housing market has been incredibly strong over the past several years, stimulated by the extremely low level of mortgage rates and the introduction of high-risk mortgages (i.e., interest-only mortgages and home equity loans up to and even above the value of the home). The sharp rise in housing prices in the past several years has allowed US homeowners to use their homes as an ATM machine to withdraw cash and fuel current consumption. If US home prices flatten out or fall, that would remove a big stimulative factor for the US economy. Other risks include the possibility of the Fed overdoing its tightening regime and causing a recession, or a stumble in China’s economy. Yet despite these risk factors, we remain generally positive about the US economic outlook and the ability of the US economy to support commodity prices. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
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WORLD ECONOMIC EXPANSION GAINS STRENGTH
World GDP growth in 2006 will continue at the +4.3% pace seen in 2005, according to IMF forecasts. That is at the higher end of the range seen in past decades and indicates general strength in the global economy. The main engines of world growth continue to be the US and China. The consensus forecast for US GDP in 2006 is +3.4%, down just slightly from +3.5% in 2005. China is likely to see GDP growth near +9% in 2006 after showing growth near +10% in each of the last three years. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP is expected to improve to +1.9% from +1.4% in 2005, and Japan’s GDP is expected to remain firm at +2.4% in 2006 after +2.7% growth in 2005. The IMF expects world inflation in 2006 to remain relatively low at +3.7%, close to the average seen in the past four years. Oil prices have surged in the past two years, but have not translated into generalized inflation pressures. As long as the world inflation situation remains stable, the world’s central banks will be able to take their time in raising interest rates to neutral levels, thus allowing economic growth to continue. The stable inflation situation should also allow world bond yields to remain subdued in 2006. The MSCI World Developed 10-year Government Bond yield was stable near 4.40% in the last three quarters of 2005. Low world longterm interest rates should help offset the negative impact from elevated oil prices and allow the world economy to continue to expand at a relatively strong rate in 2006. The world stock markets rallied sharply in 2005 and
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edged to a record high in January 2006, taking out the previous high seen in 2000 before the stock market bubble burst. Corporate profit growth should continue at an above-trend rate in 2005, but stock market gains may be more difficult considering the sharp gains already seen in the past 3 years. World stock markets are still at reasonable valuations, meaning there is little risk of a major sell-off as long as no shocks emerge to hurt corporate earnings performance. The main risk for the world economy continues to be oil prices. The world economy has shown remarkable resilience thus far in adjusting to the doubling of crude oil prices in the past 2 years. The world economy appears to be able to function relatively well with oil prices above $40 per barrel and perhaps even above $50 per barrel. However, any rally in oil prices to new highs would present fresh challenges to the world economy and would surely cut world GDP growth by at least 1-2 percentage points. The other major risk for the world economy is a stumble in the Chinese economy where imbalances abound. But on the whole, we are optimistic about the prospects for world economic growth in 2006. That suggests that world commodity demand should remain relatively strong in 2006, underpinning support for commodity prices. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
CHINA CONTINUES TO DRIVE WORLD COMMODITY PRICES
China’s economy in 2005 put in another strong performance with real GDP growth of +9.9%. China’s GDP has now been very close to +10% for three consecutive years and the 10-year average of China’s GDP is +9.1%. China’s government is predicting +8.5% GDP growth in 2006. Growth rates aside, the Chinese economy suddenly became much larger in 2005 through a one-time upward adjustment. The Chinese government in December 2005 increased the size of China’s GDP by $285 billion to nearly $2 trillion. That was a one-time 17% increase in the size of China’s GDP, resulting from a government census that found numerous smaller businesses that had not been previously included in GDP. The upward revision moved China’s economy ahead of the UK and France in terms of size and into fourth place behind only the US, Japan and Germany. In terms of purchasing power parity (where GDP is translated at a more realistic exchange rate), the Chinese economy was already the world’s second largest, behind only the US. China’s extraordinary pace of economic growth continues to be the key factor driving demand in the energy, metals, and construction materials markets. The outlook for China’s economy is therefore a critical factor for commodity prices in 2006. The outlook for China’s economy should remain favorable as long as China’s inflation rate remains low. China’s CPI ended 2005 at +1.6%, which is a very low rate. As long as China’s CPI remains under control, the Chinese central bank will be able to keep interest rates relatively low. On the other hand, if China’s
CPI starts to creep higher, then the central bank will need to raise interest rates and the risks then increase for a hard landing, which China has experienced on several notable occasions in the past. The Chinese government on July 21, 2005, finally responded to international criticism about its fixed exchange rate and allowed a small 2.1% upward revaluation in the yuan against the dollar. However, that small upward revaluation was a drop in the bucket compared to estimates that the Chinese currency may be undervalued by as much as 20-30%. The undervalued currency allows China to promote its export-dominated economic development model. But in the process, the undervalued currency is artificially boosting Chinese exports to the detriment of producers in the US and elsewhere. China is rife with economic problems and imbalances, including over-investment is certain sectors, an undervalued currency, an exploding trade surplus, inadequate infrastructure, a poorly-functioning equity market, corruption, serious bad loan problems in the banking system, and a command-type psychology toward trying to control the economy. So far, Chinese authorities have been able to stave off any economic disasters. However, China could quickly become the source of significant volatility in the global markets if the Chinese economy suddenly stumbles. Still, any stumble is likely to be temporary, and China is likely to remain the key driver of world commodity markets in coming years. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist
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Volume U.S. U.S. Futures Volume Highlights 2005 in Comparison w ith 2004 2005 Top 50 Contracts Traded in 2005 R an k
2005 Contracts
%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
410,355,384 215,124,076 207,095,732 121,908,830 86,926,569 72,453,141 59,650,468 36,081,429 34,530,730 28,902,033 27,965,057 24,892,328 21,205,359 20,216,137 19,142,549 15,890,617 15,377,489 13,166,417 13,135,581 13,007,072 12,471,672 11,602,282 10,406,462 10,114,098 8,769,751 8,324,616 7,930,156 7,784,498 7,676,130 5,833,556 5,682,214 5,536,351 4,885,430 4,749,093 4,153,543 3,987,778 3,950,842 3,848,990 3,682,919 3,674,886 2,751,455 2,682,058 2,582,927 2,250,341 1,886,270 1,827,018 1,787,405 1,580,162 1,384,750 1,261,653
1,612,086,304 40,786,227 1,652,872,531
Eurodollars (3-month), CME T-Notes (10-year), CBT E-Mini S&P 500 I ndex, CME T-Notes (5-year), CBT T-Bonds (30-year), CBT E-Mini NASDAQ 100, CME Crude Oil, NYMEX Rogers I nternational TRAKRS, CME Euro FX, CME E-Mini Russell 2000 I ndex, CME Corn, CBT Mini ($5) Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex, CBT T-Notes (2-year), CBT Soybeans, CBT Natural Gas, NYMEX Gold (100 oz.), COMEX Div. of NYMEX S&P 500 I ndex, CME Unleaded Regular Gas, NYMEX Heating Oil #2, NYMEX Sugar #11, NYBOT Japanese Yen, CME Federal Funds (30-day), CBT Henry Hub Swap, NYMEX Wheat, CBT British Pound, CME Soybean Meal, CBT Canadian Dollar, CME Swiss Franc, CME Soybean Oil, CBT Live Cattle, CME E-Mini Crude Oil, NYMEX Silver (5,000 oz), COMEX Div. of NYMEX E-mini S&P SmallCap 600 I ndex, CME Australian Dollar, CME Lean Hogs, CME Coffee C, NYBOT High Grade Copper, COMEX Div. of NYMEX Cotton #2, NYBOT Wheat, KCBT Mexican Peso, CME Natural Gas Penultimate Swap, NYMEX NASDAQ 100, CME Cocoa, NYBOT TRAKRS Commodity, CME Nikkei 225 I ndex (CME) TRAKRS Gold, CME Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex, CBOT Socal Basis Swap, NTMEX Wheat, MGE Northwest Rockies Basis Swap, NYMEX
Top 50 Contracts Contracts Below the Top 50 TOTAL
2004 Contracts
%
2004 R an k
25.45% 13.34% 12.85% 7.56% 5.39% 4.49% 3.70% 2.24% 2.14% 1.79% 1.73% 1.54% 1.32% 1.25% 1.19% 0.99% 0.95% 0.82% 0.81% 0.81% 0.77% 0.72% 0.65% 0.63% 0.54% 0.52% 0.49% 0.48% 0.48% 0.36% 0.35% 0.34% 0.30% 0.29% 0.26% 0.25% 0.25% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23% 0.17% 0.17% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.11% 0.11% 0.10% 0.09% 0.08%
297,584,038 196,119,150 167,202,962 105,469,410 72,949,053 77,168,513 52,883,200
18.46% 12.17% 10.37% 6.54% 4.53% 4.79% 3.28%
1 2 3 4 6 5 7
20,456,672 17,121,233 24,038,233 20,695,848 9,454,774 18,846,021 17,441,942 14,959,617 16,175,584 12,777,442 12,884,511 9,766,550 7,395,322 11,940,120 5,353,792 7,955,155 4,676,512 8,569,243 5,611,328 4,067,767 7,593,314 4,510,128 720,421 5,006,125 3,282,347 2,672,733 3,204,186 4,193,303 3,190,625 3,156,018 2,833,370 3,247,222 294,011 4,011,983 2,389,050 4,138,262 1,239,010 4,868,842 2,577,138 569,540 1,378,694 652,511
1.27% 1.06% 1.49% 1.28% 0.59% 1.17% 1.08% 0.93% 1.00% 0.79% 0.80% 0.61% 0.46% 0.74% 0.33% 0.49% 0.29% 0.53% 0.35% 0.25% 0.47% 0.28% 0.04% 0.31% 0.20% 0.17% 0.20% 0.26% 0.20% 0.20% 0.18% 0.20% 0.02% 0.25% 0.15% 0.26% 0.08% 0.30% 0.16% 0.04% 0.09% 0.04%
10 13 8 9 20 11 12 15 14 17 16 19 24 18 27 22 30 21 26 34 23 31
97.53% 2.47% 100.00%
1,285,292,825 38,734,707 1,324,027,532
97.07% 2.93% 100.00%
* For 2004 Top 50 contracts totaled 1,324,027,532 including 5 contracts that are not among 2005's Top 50.
36T
28 36 44 38 32 39 40 42 37 35 46 33 50 29 45 48
VOLUME U.S. U.S. Futures Volume Highlights 2005 in Comparison w ith 2004 2005 2005 2004 RANK EXCHANGE CONTRACTS % CONTRACTS 1 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 883,118,526 53.43% 664,884,607 2 Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) 561,145,938 33.95% 489,230,144 3 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)** 166,608,642 10.08% 133,284,248 4 New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)* 29,013,416 1.76% 23,955,212 5 OneChicago 5,528,046 0.33% 1,922,726 6 Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) 3,690,025 0.22% 2,834,799 7 EUREX US 2,200,384 0.13% 6,186,008 8 Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) 1,389,922 0.08% 1,381,456 9 CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) 177,632 0.01% 91,332 10 NASDAQ LIFFE Markets (NQLX) 257,000 TOTAL 1,324,027,532 100.00% 1,042,968,664 * Includes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange. ** Includes Comex Division.
% 50.22% 36.95% 10.07% 1.81% 0.15% 0.21% 0.47% 0.10% 0.01% 0.02% 100.00%
2004 RANK 1 2 3 4 7 6 5 8 10 9
Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) FU TU R E W h ea t Mini Wheat Corn Mini Corn Oats Soybeans Mini Soybeans South American Soybeans Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Rice Mini Silver Mini Gold Silver Gold T-Bonds (30-year) Mini T-Bonds (30-year) T-Notes (10-year) T-Notes (5-year) T-Notes (2-year) Mini Eurodollars I nterest Rate Swap (10-year) I nterest Rate Swap (5-year) Municipal Note I ndex (10-year) 30-Day Federal Funds B und B ob l Schatz Ethanol Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex Mini ($5) Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex Dow Jones AI GCI I ndex Total Futures
CONTRACT UNIT 5,000 bu 1,000 bu 5,000 bu 1,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 1,000 bu 5,000 bu 60,000 lbs 100 tons 200,000 lbs 1,000 oz 33.2 troy oz 5,000 oz 1 0 0 oz 100,000 USD 50,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 200,000 USD 500,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 5,000,000 USD 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 29,000 US Gallons 10 USD x I ndex 5 USD x I ndex 100 x I ndex
2005 10,114,098 32,295 27,965,057 102,292 351,539 20,216,137 495,313 12,088 7,676,130 8,324,616 228,502 163,395 389,737 86,218 626,901 86,926,569 4,223 215,124,076 121,908,830 21,205,359 3 655,711 202,737 33,502 11,602,282 1,498 880 2,204 2,676 1,787,405 24,892,328 11,337 561,145,938
2004 7,955,155 31,044 24,038,233 86,771 416,448 18,846,021 362,829
2003 6,967,416 22,288 19,118,715 53,404 318,898 17,545,714 250,447
2002 6,872,891
2001 6,801,541
18,132,447
16,728,748
415,140 14,475,100
440,854 12,150,369
7,593,314 8,569,243 168,165 204,255 420,604 12,398 89,539 72,949,053 11,373 196,119,150 105,469,410 9,454,774 91 856,968 243,353 65,026 11,940,120 2,303 3,219 4,306
7,417,340 8,158,445 265,234 34,804 145,173
63,521,507 15,707 146,745,281 73,746,445 4,415,906 543 1,038,777 110,275 94,541 8,271,726
6,816,483 7,174,507 193,723 7,723 9,024 72 55 56,082,284 10,009 95,786,299 50,512,085 3,203,855 1,541 661,527 53,030 8,678 6,285,789
6,034,325 6,743,772 121,661 1,087 717 161 4,867 58,579,290 4,383 57,585,828 31,122,401 2,389,165 483 58,884
2,577,138 20,695,848 40,882 489,230,144
4,416,302 10,859,690 43,321 373,669,290
6,485,501 2,224,757 14,782 276,316,119
4,901,949 4,292 209,988,002
4,686,695
Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) FU TU R E W h ea t Value Line I ndex Total Futures
CONTRACT UNIT 5,000 bu 100 USD x I ndex
2005 3,682,919 7,106 3,690,025
2004 2,833,370 1,429 2,834,799
2003 2,632,033 2,391 2,634,424
2002 2,738,536 17,370 2,755,949
2001 2,357,004 17,773 2,375,133
CONTRACT UNIT 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu
2005 1,384,750 647 427 250 3,848 1,389,922
2004 1,378,694 56 2,521 69 116 1,381,456
2003 1,066,489
2002 1,199,149
2001 967,666
2,253 1,201,543
968,699
Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) FU TU R E Spring Wheat Hard Red Spring Wheat I ndex Hard Red Winter Wheat I ndex Soft Red Winter Wheat I ndex National Corn I ndex Total Futures
16,535 3,996 1,087,020
37T
VOLUME U.S. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Future Lean Hogs Pork Bellies, Frozen Butter Cash Butter Nonfat Dry Milk Class I I I Milk Class I V Milk Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Random Lumber Diamonium Phosphate Urea Ammonium Nitrate Urea Ethanol Eurodollar (3-month) Euroyen 2-Year SWAP 5-Year SWAP 10-Year SWAP Consumer Price I ndex Eurozone Harmonized CPI I ndex One Month LI BOR Australian Dollar British Pound Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar Czech Koruna Euro FX E-Mini Euro FX Hungarian Forint Japanese Yen E-Mini Japanese Yen Mexican Peso New Zealand Dollar Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Russian Ruble South African Rand Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar British Pound / Japanese Yen British Pound / Swiss Franc Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen Euro / Australian Dollar Euro / Canadian Dollar Euro / Czech Koruna Euro / Hungarian Forint Euro / Norwegian Krone Euro / Polish Zloty Euro / British Pound Euro / Japanese Yen Euro / Swedish Krona Euro / Swiss Franc Nikkei 225 I ndex (USD) Nikkei 225 I ndex (JPY) S&P 500 I ndex E-Mini S&P 500 I ndex S&P 500 Barra Growth I ndex S&P 500 Barra Value I ndex S&P Financial Sector I ndex S&P Technology-Telecomm Sector I ndex S&P MidCap 400 I ndex S&P SmallCap 600 I ndex E-mini S&P SmallCap 600 I ndex
NASDAQ 100 I ndex E-Mini NASDAQ 100 I ndex
38T
Contract Unit 40,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 20,000 lbs 44,000 lbs 200,000 lbs 200,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 50,000 lbs 100,000 bd ft 100 tons 100 tons 100 tons 30,000 US Gallons 1,000,000 USD 1,000,000,000 JPY
2,500 USD x CPI 10,000 EUR x I ndex 3,000,000 USD 100,000 62,500 100,000 100,000 125,000 62,500 30,000,000 12,500,000 6,250,000 500,000 100,000 227,000 500,000 2500000 500,000 193,600 125,000 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 125,000 GBP 125,000 GBP 200,000 CAD 250,000 CHF 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 4,000,000 EUR 30,000,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 500,000 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 5 USD x I ndex 5 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 50 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 125 USD x I ndex 125 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 200 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex
2005 4,153,543 124,418 7,708 2,337 217 182,509 138 5,833,556 1,017,348 236,241 38 55 208 4 410,355,384 200,958 30,485 35,315 35,170 41 835 1,048,468 4,749,093 8,769,751 23,144 7,930,156 118 34,530,730 642,857 77 12,471,672 4,887 3,674,886 187,437 3,966 15,046 45,835 63,379 1,884 7,784,498 1,797 836 1,990 830 3,209 452 338 823 1,032 56 10 522 18,548 39,069 123,805 394 12,264 1,886,270 952,618 15,377,489 207,095,732 2,533 8,049 1,600 68 205,058 1,882 4,885,430
2004 3,204,186 151,949 6,167
2003 2,164,155 161,329 8,544
2002 1,931,260 152,054 5,897
2001 2,018,339 196,359 1,374
114 345,973 690 4,510,128 741,265 242,873 62 218 300
230 191,351 137 4,436,089 704,852 223,891
12 103,375 4,714 3,851,736 585,517 164,423
48
297,284,038 224,821 26,240 56,438 65,281 5,264
208,771,164 179,573 6,640 43,616 40,030
202,080,832 231,723 5,671 13,301 7,234
184,015,496 494,519
2,886,987 2,672,733 4,676,512 2,911 5,611,328 31 20,456,672 190,554 10 7,395,322 5,466 3,247,222 162,370 2,122 4,461 30,620 65,749 812 4,067,767 676 1,066 639 651 689 344 110 769 901
1,138,358 1,609,289 2,595,155 277 4,219,618
1,110,934 1,049,220 2,166,469 4 3,134,963
1,315,593 832,707 2,078,834 3,937 2,961,680
11,193,922 16,860
6,986,600 7,252
5,898,429 13,244
6,085,209 2,740 2,123,623 120,235 388
4,394,982 2,557 1,354,256 54,148 303
4,552,599 2,023 1,069,327 21,766
4,420 73,542 4 3,596,658 220 94
55,275 1 2,830,738 16 16
65,327
98 3,859 43,635 118,614 318 7,290 1,239,010 260,128 16,175,584 167,202,962 2,754 8,852 2,527 197 260,764 2,354 3,282,347
6,513 4,279,273 616,988 206,840
2,901,939
894 103 102 247 554 247
519 263
65,696 161,600
7,166 58,768
127 98,970
1,794 765,463
949 571,241
182 476,274
20,175,462 161,176,639 5,119 14,131 4,093 60 302,817 1,635 1,417,513
23,699,667 115,741,691 7,756 17,238 5,052 1,410 387,800 191 343,087
22,478,152 39,434,843 12,408 24,319
54 306 5
378,526
500 USD x I ndex
2,682,058
4,011,983
4,421,221
4,903,287
5,586,750
20 USD x I ndex
72,453,141
77,168,513
67,888,938
54,491,180
32,550,233
VOLUME U.S. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Future Russell 2000 I ndex E-Mini Russell 2000 I ndex Russell 1000 I ndex Long-Short TRAKRS I ndex Long-Short TRAKRS I ndex I I Rogers I nternational TRAKRS TRAKRS Select 50 I ndex LMC TRAKRS I ndex TRAKRS Commodity TRAKRS Euro Currency TRAKRS Gold HDD Weather HDD Seasonal Weather HDD Seasonal Weather Strips CDD Weather CDD Seasonal Weather Euro HDD Weather Euro CAT Weather Euro Seasonal HDD Weather Euro Seasonal CAT Weather Goldman Sachs Commodity I ndex S&P 500 ETF Russell 2000 ETF E-Mini Nasdaq Bio-Tech I ndex Nasdaq 100 ETF Total Futures
(Continued)
Contract Unit 500 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 20 GBP x I ndex 20 GBP x I ndex 20 GBP x I ndex 20 GBP x I ndex 250 USD x I ndex 100 shares 200 shares 250 USD x I ndex 200 shares
2005 571,055 28,902,033 530,665 52,712 1,172,321 36,081,429 364,201 313,416 2,250,341 397,642 1,827,018 75,266 9,610 50 107,475 22,150 7,302 3,332 800 600 498,424 4,522 47 3 3,817 883,118,526
2004 614,040 17,121,233 51,437 1,070,408 5,693,223
2003 655,778 3,878,935 14,941 994,756
2002 843,479 859,885
2001 714,259 26,012
676,801 460,246 4,138,262 1,248,272 4,868,842 16,404 2,080
2,436,069 1,803,316 7,424,763 1,196,525 6,065,013 6,058 225
4,614,721 2,697,494
23,656 2,395 2,015 535 350
8,176
1,831
450,036
371,473
518,323
479,646
664,584,607
530,989,007
444,537,987
315,971,885
2004 4,193,303 276 9,766,550 114,619 2,389,050 3,156,018
2003 3,211,031 332 7,140,724 133,811 2,128,206 3,035,992
2002 2,718,508 784 6,173,756 141,017 2,079,980 2,327,960
2001 2,199,371 5,150,329 116,733 2,005,817 2,259,665
970,437 10 2,949 11,654 17,016 8,513 46,433 49,150 9,852 9,283 71,332 16,604 13,141 9,178 34,904 37,899 66,006 10,192 31,151 68,519 41,614 65,808 12,409 44,000 52,496 28,093 17,640 363,069 64,334 226,404 29,536 143,274 6,006 247
652,715
577,757
577,496
2,458 12,377 11,350 26,119 43,351 40,467 527 1,120 31,272 16,440 6,061 15,104 16,357 26,395 41,468
2,581 2,983 1,178 11,159 58,583 31,956
1,854 2,564 746 10,737 16,338 17,379
11,081 8,593 8,043 5,181 9,525 13,289 21,870
4,793 18,865 2,640 17,886 12,673 24,426 31,250
20,503 52,145 22,193 60,926 5,365 30,466 49,890 2,774 24 346,751 49,977 117,989 29,815 133,218
13,204 30,925 9,038 81,998 2,560 14,635 17,731
21,379 42,651 15,196 64,431 2,299 17,006 11,712
337,756 45,757 124,485 17,670 69,057
294,733 30,354 112,727 4,488 44,162
2,469,467
2,334
131
375
New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) FU TU R E Coffee 'C' Mini Coffee Sugar #11 Sugar #14 Cocoa Cotton #2 Pulp Orange Juice, Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice, Frozen Concentrate - Diff US Dollar / Canadian Dollar US Dollar / Swedish Krona US Dollar / Norwegian Krone US Dollar / Swiss Franc US Dollar / Japanese Yen US Dollar / British Pound US Dollar / Czech Koruna US Dollar / Hungarian Forint US Dollar / South African Rand Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Australian Dollar / US Dollar Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar Australian Dolar / New Zealand Dollar New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen Norwegian Krone / Swedish Koruna British Pound / Swiss franc British Pound / Japanese Yen Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen Euro Euro / US Dollar, Small Euro / Australian Dollar Euro / Canadian Dollar Euro / Czech Koruna Euro / Hungarian Forint Euro / Japanese Yen Euro / Swedish Krona Euro / British Pound Euro / Norwegian Euro / Swiss Franc Small British Pound / US Dollar Small US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
CONTRACT UNIT 37,500 lbs 12,500 lbs 112,000 lbs 112,000 lbs 10 metric tons 50,000 lbs 20 Airdry Metric Tons 15,000 lbs 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 125,000 GBP 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 100,000 USD 200,000 CAD 100,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 100,000 NZD 200,000 AUD 500,000 NOK 125,000 GBP 125,000 GBP 200,000 CHF 200,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 62,500 GBP 100,000 USD
2005 3,987,778 77 13,007,072 136,676 2,582,927 3,848,990 20,500 902,019 401 3,864 18,926 25,611 9,452 46,218 38,739 31,502 22,473 87,417 9,238 39,578 8,058 33,330 70,364 177,816 11,797 49,597 156,444 66,907 66,746 110,186 59,644 12,179 21,525 12,905 448,372 129,028 253,818 55,945 261,897 21,762 15,624
39T
VOLUME U.S. New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) FU TU R E Small US Dollar / Japanese Yen Small US Dollar / Swiss Franc US Dollar I ndex Revised NYSE Composite I ndex Russell 1000 I ndex Russell 1000 Growth I ndex Russell 1000 Value I ndex Russell 2000 I ndex Russell 2000 Growth I ndex Reuters-CRB Futures I ndex (CCI ) RJ/CRB Futures I ndex Total Futures*
(Continued) CONTRACT UNIT 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 1,000 USD x I ndex 50 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 200 USD x I ndex
2005 39,715 28,262 1,159,938 14,047 885,881 2,905 2,391 298 9 9,144 7,424 29,013,416
CONTRACT UNIT 1 0 0 oz 5,000 oz 25,000 lbs 44,000 lbs
CONTRACT UNIT 1 0 0 oz 5 0 oz 1,000 bbl 1,000 bbl 1,000 bbl 400 bbl 42,000 gal
2004 5,664 41 748,204 14,678 961,771 2,442 2,392 424 4 19,230
2003
2002
2001
563,032 7,143 677,626 836 415 10
411,571
342,948
646,455
313,318
23,156
14,283
16,878
23,955,212
18,822,048
16,272,144
14,034,168
2005 15,890,617 5,536,351 3,950,842 28,491 25,406,301
2004 14,959,617 5,006,125 3,190,625 72,169 23,228,536
2003 12,235,689 4,111,190 3,089,270 107,490 19,543,639
2002 9,018,183 3,135,564 2,807,286 74,000 15,035,033
2001 6,785,340 2,569,198 2,856,641 43,089 12,258,659
2005 321,923 376,179 13,135,581 13,166,417 59,650,468 5,682,214 1,964 14,761 986,534 4,010 19,142,549 522,439 652,077 28,058 118,351 15,580 62,913 8,060 40,495 3,160 217,349 36,900 85,922 13,860 13,500 18,020 59,640 5,830 900 1,740 260 119,569 41,573 9,780 5,840 41,931 126 4,700 15,163 37,792 1,800 6,137 21,515 704 1,875 615
2004 267,552 295,695 12,884,511 12,777,442 52,883,200 720,421
2003 95,613 268,305 11,581,670 11,172,050 45,436,931 277,411
2002 41,053 219,771 10,695,202 10,979,736 45,679,468 210,228
2001 25,925 205,969 9,264,472 9,223,510 37,530,568
135,385 14,764 17,441,942 136,123 234,207 7,490 91,067
30 14,710 19,037,118 115,502 142,859 5,235 88,826
1,516 12,826 24,357,792 67,981
49,565 10,566 16,468,355
4,124 1,268
2,209
26,018
52,996
4,848
13,214
10,245
758
190,591 18,725
30,221 3,963
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) COMEX Division FU TU R E Gold Silver High Grade Copper Aluminum Total Futures
NYMEX Division FU TU R E Palladium Platinum No. 2 Heating Oil, NY Unleaded Gasoline, NY Crude Oil E-Mini Crude Oil NY Harbor RBOB Gasoline Gas Oil Brent Crude Oil Propane Natural Gas E-Mini Natural Gas PJM Monthly C oa l NYI SO A NYI SO A Off-Peak NYI SO G NYI SO G Off-Peak NYI SO J NYI SO J Off-Peak PJM Daily PJM Weekly PJM Off-Peak LMP Swap AER-Dayton Hub Daily AER-Dayton Off-Peak Monthly AER-Dayton Hub Monthly Northern I llinois Off-Peak Monthly Dow Jones Mid-Columbia Dow Jones NP15 Dow Jones SP15 Dow Jones Palo Verde I SO New England Peak LMP Swap I SO New England Off-Peak LMP Swap Cinergy Hub Off-Peak Month Swap Cinergy Hub Peak Month Swap WTI Crude Oil Calendar Swap NYMEX Brent Calendar Swap NY Harbor Residual Fuel Oil Crack Swap NY Harbor Residual Fuel 1.0% Sulfur Swap NY Harbor No 2 Crack Spread Calendar Swap Gulf Coast Gas vs Heating Oil Spread Swap Gulf Coast Jet vs NYMEX HO Spread Swap Gulf Coast No 6 Fuel Oil 3.0% Swap US Gulf Coast No 2 Crack Spread Calendar Gulf Coast No 6 Fuel Oil Crack Swap Gulf Coast Jet Fuel Calendar Swap
40T
1,000 bbl 42,000 gal 10,000 MMBTU 4,000 MMBTU 1,500 tons
3,310 3,770 6,594 1,510 4,030
152,680
33,785
625 120,780 3,650 1,750 200 1,375
375
VOLUME U.S. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
(Continued)
NYMEX Division FU TU R E TD3 MEG to Japan 250k MT TC2 Rotterdam to USAC 37k MT TC4 Singapore to Japan 30k MT TD5 West Africa YO USAC 130k NY Harbor Conv Gas vs NY Harbor Gas Spread Swap NY Harbor Heating Oil Calendar Swap Gasoline vs. Heating Oil Swap NYMEX Gasoline Calendar Swap US Gulf Coast Unleaded 87 Crack Spread Calendar NY Harbor Unleaded Crack Spread Calendar Unleaded 87 Up-Down Calendar Swap Henry Hub Basis Swap AECO-C/NI T Basis Swap Chicago Basis Swap ANR - Louisiana Basis Swap ANR - Oklahoma Basis Columbia Gulf Onshore Basis Tennessee 500 Leg Basis Swap TETCO ELA Basis Michigan Basis Michigan Hub Off-Peak Calendar Swap TETCO STX Basis Tetco M-3 I ndex Transco Zone 3 Basis Swap Transco Zone 4 Basis Swap Houston Ship Channel Basis Swap San Juan Basis Swap San Juan I ndex San Juan Swing I ndex Sonat Basis Swap East/West Fuel Oil Spread Swap NW Europe Gasoline Swap-Argus Price New Europe Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel Swap Europe Gasoil 0.2 Med Calendar Swap Europe Naptha Calendar Swap Fuel Oil Swap: Cargoes vs. Barges Florida Gas Zone 3 Basis Swap Singapore Fuel Oil Spread Swap Singapore Gasoil Swap Singapore 380CST Fuel Oil Swap Singapore Naptha Swap Sumas Basis Sumas I ndex Sumas Swing Swap Future NGPL Mid-Continent WAHA Basis CI G Rockies Henry Hub Swap Northwest Rockies Basis Swap Natural Gas Penultimate Swap Tennessee Zone 0 Basis Swap Socal Basis Swap Socal Swing Swap Socal I ndex Kern River Opal Plant Swing Swap Rockies Kern Opal - NW I ndex Trunkline, LA Basis Swap Texas Eastern Zone M-3 Basis Texas Eastern Zone M-3 Swing NGPL Louisiana Basis Transco Zone 6 Basis Swap Transco Zone 6 I ndex Transco Zone 6 Swing Swap PG&E Malin Basis PG&E Citygate Basis PG&E Citygate Swing Swap PG&E Citygate I ndex NGPL TEX/OK Basis Northern Natural Gas Demarcation Basis
CONTRACT UNIT
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
125 460 30 810 98 24,760 12,307 21,697 5,876 32,542 2,525 337,152 1,247,570 324,560 6,869 57,584 27,332 8,600 8,196 158,667 240 36,481 19,601 92,944 1,394 778,513 160,530 924 248 8,966 668 603 587 128 140 592 972 95 305 118 150 429,597 13,088 1,434 160,828 338,241 181,241 10,406,462 1,261,653 2,751,455 56,197 1,580,162 11,528 23,512 3,380 8,562 3,972 716,299 498 11,619 529,577 8,796 914 682,135 642,845 4,147 14,878 401,241 73,501
900 51,347 20,795 20,279 45,775 45,336 6,675 98,408 488,699 174,498
2,355 150
52,967 24,272
8,235 3,526
24,755 94,137
4,872 81,074
19,790
13,132
56,993
2,750
856
856
429,266 62,048
320,144
172,313
5,890
69,854 184,909 69,555 5,353,792 652,511 294,011
32,580 134,632 7,026 2,356,600
1,666
278,235
178,591
7,702
3,724 480,197
2,260
334,230 209,906
241,769 110,812
11,564 186
60,266 17,651
13,418 35,901
2,072 4,950
569,540
41T
VOLUME U.S. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
(Continued)
NYMEX Division FU TU R E
CONTRACT UNIT
Northern Natural Gas Ventura Basis Dominion Transmission - Appalachian Basis Dominion Transmission - Appalachian Basis I ndex Dominion Transmission - Appalachian Swing Swap Panhandle Basis Swap Permian Basis Questar Basis Swap Texas Gas Zone SL Basis Swap TCO Basis Europe 3.5 Fuel Oil RDAM CALS Europe SI NPO Fuel 180CST CALS Europe 1% Fuel Oil NWE CALS Europe 1% Fuel Oil RDAM CALS Europe Gasoil 0.2 RDAM CALS Europe 3.5% Fuel Oil NWE CALS Europe Jet Kero NWE CALS Northern I llinois Hub Monthly Northern I llinois Hub Daily NYMEX WTI -Brent Calendar Swap Chicago Swing El Paso Permian Swing Henry Hub Swing Panhandle Swing Houston Ship Channel Swing WAHA Swing El Paso, Permian I ndex Swap Henry Hub I ndex Swap Houston Ship Channel I ndex Swap Panhandle I ndex Swap WAHA I ndex Swap NYMEX NOX Emissions Gulf Coast Gasoline Calendar Swap Gulf Coast Heating Oil Calendar Swap Chicago I ndex Swap No 2 Up-Down Spread Calendar Swap Total Futures Total Futures**
2005
2004
2003
2002
207,843 459,360 8,186 3,832 870,855 306,329 306 10,640 316,053 8,639 6,629 1,968 707 6 20 21 21,038 700 1,200 991 2,606 85,830 2,780 6,384 5,252 11,740 271,791 148,249 6,171 26,923 131 3,352 861 6,605 1,848 141,202,341 166,608,642
21,771 247,191
65,843 95,595
5,525 1,898
224,329 128,814
211,397
1,340
244,049
103,343
3,610
2,352 92,246,019 111,789,658
92,324,686 107,359,719
2001
102 40,102 599 1,078 1,310 2,250 65,860 12,791 1,798 4,549
1,581 2,352 110,054,812 133,283,348
72,781,325 85,039,984
Eurex US FU TU R E Russell 1000 I ndex Russell 2000 I ndex CAD / USD CHF / EUR CHF / USD GBP / EUR JPY / EUR JPY / USD USD / AUD USD / EUR USD / GBP Jumbo 2-Year Treasury Note T-Notes (2-year) T-Notes (3-year) T-Notes (5-year) T-Notes (10-year) T-Bonds Total Futures
CONTRACT UNIT 100 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 1,000,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD
2005 251,293 738,156 1,831 60,801 841 38,518 4 2,826 532 19,758 1,330 1,760 2,870 284 431,742 365,369 282,469 2,200,384
CONTRACT UNIT
2005 5,474,663 14,162 39,000 221 5,528,046
2004
2003
2002
2001
2004 1,890,097 29,585
2003 1,488,573 127,424
2002 151,878 32,203
2001
3,044 1,922,726
3,197 1,619,194
184,081
53,663 2,332,942 2,818,977 980,426 6,186,008
ONECHICAGO FU TU R E Single Stock Futures Exchange Traded Funds Narrow-Based Equity I ndex Dow Jones MicroSector I ndex Total Futures
42T
VOLUME U.S. Total US Futures Volume 2004 1,324,027,532
2002 851,310,387
2001 629,212,715
2000 491,451,073
PERCENT CHANGE 26.95% 22.51% 35.30% * I ncludes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange. ** I ncludes Commodity Exchange, I nc.
28.03%
2.83%
TOTAL FUTURES
2003 1,042,968,664
Options Traded on U.S. Securities Exchanges Volume Highlights 2005 in Comparison w ith 2004 2005 RANK EXCHANGE 1 Chicago Board of Options Exchange 2 I nternational Securities Exchange 3 American Stock Exchange 4 Philadelphia Stock Exchange 5 Pacific Stock Exchange 6 Boston Options Exchange Total Options
2005 CONTRACTS 468,249,301 448,695,669 201,631,832 162,596,932 144,780,498 78,202,185 1,504,156,417
% 39.61% 37.96% 17.06% 13.76% 12.25% 6.62% 100.00%
2004 CONTRACTS 361,086,774 360,852,519 202,680,929 133,401,278 103,262,458 20,741,271 1,182,025,229
% 39.77% 39.75% 22.33% 14.69% 11.37% 2.28% 100.00%
2004 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6
Options Traded on U.S. Futures Exchanges Volume Highlights 2005 in Comparison w ith 2004 2005 2005 2004 RANK EXCHANGE CONTRACTS % CONTRACTS 1 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 207,233,185 71.67% 140,457,074 2 Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) 113,505,455 39.25% 110,764,242 3 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) 38,002,895 13.14% 29,873,559 4 New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) 8,932,169 3.09% 7,774,379 5 Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) 263,511 0.09% 254,304 6 Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) 32,464 0.01% 34,826 7 EUREX US 0 0.00% 800 Total Options 367,969,679 100.00% 289,159,184 * I ncludes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange. ** I ncludes Commodity Exchange, I nc.
% 63.35% 49.96% 13.47% 3.51% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00% 100.00%
2004 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Options Volume on U.S. Futures Exchange 2001-2005 Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) Option W h ea t Corn Oats Soybeans Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Rice T-Bonds T-Notes (10-year) T-Notes (5-year) T-Notes (2-year) 30-Day Federal Funds Flexible US T-Bonds Flexible T-Notes (10-year) Flexible T-Notes (5-year) Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex Mini ($5) Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex Total Options
Contract Unit 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 60,000 lbs 100 tons 200,000 lbs 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 200,000 USD 5,000,000 USD
10 USD x I ndex 5 USD x I ndex
2005 1,870,541 6,257,027 22,320 6,817,588 682,825 685,830 17,834 15,661,021 55,648,782 17,691,564 23,251 6,534,587 600,641 259,295 4,000 114,353 613,996 113,505,455
2004 1,465,760 7,593,355 36,498 6,045,952 947,383 971,335 22,064 13,788,908 56,878,013 17,215,903 10,206 4,707,103 193,663 96,192 29,900 190,708 571,299 110,764,242
2003 1,788,500 4,515,240 36,163 4,885,399 665,532 546,267 34,978 15,180,025 41,165,629 9,697,455 11,874 1,614,319 57,442 56,920 200 263,629
2002 1,773,559 5,397,748 90,780 4,227,445 659,302 404,351 35,272 15,324,548 31,741,521 7,533,556 32,468
2001 1,714,041 4,864,294 70,218 3,829,236 672,284 606,187 23,233 13,478,771 19,983,876 4,681,604 44,185
38,456 60,577 4,225 234,219
38,160 45,700 2,200 288,364
80,521,459
67,566,482
50,345,068
43T
VOLUME U.S. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Option Lean Hogs Pork Bellies, Frozen Butter Mini BFP Milk Class I I I Milk Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Random Lumber Euroyen Eurodollar (3-month) British Pound Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen Mexican Peso Swiss Franc Australian Dollar Euro FX Euro FX European Japanese Yen European Nikkei 225 S&P 500 I ndex E-Mini S&P 500 I ndex S&P MidCap 400 I ndex NASDAQ 100 I ndex E-Mini NASDAQ 100 I ndex Russell 2000 I ndex E-Mini Russell 2000 I ndex CDD Weather HDD Weather HDD Seasonal Weather CDD Seasonal Weather HDD Seasonal Weather Strip Euro HDD Weather Euro CAT Weather Euro HDD Seasonal Weather Euro CAT Seasonal Weather Goldman Sachs Commodity I ndex
Contract Unit 40,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 100,000 lbs 200,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 50,000 lbs 100,000 bd ft 100,000,000 JPY 1,000,000 USD 62,500 100,000 12,500,000 500,000 125,000 100,000 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 12,500,000 EUR 5 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 50 USD x S&P I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 100 x CDD 100 x HDD 100 x HDDSW 100 x CDDSW 100 x HDDSW 20 GBP x I ndex 20 GBP x I ndex 20 GBP x I ndex 20 GBP x I ndex 250 USD x I ndex
Total Options
2005 198,274 3,228 203 796 71,431 502,021 142,253 25,171 48 188,001,048 146,893 231,329 419,232 1,284 50,107 109,970 2,100,595 72,119 50,996 44,458 9,810,489 4,289,038 670 35,306 110,093 4,779 175,226 28,725 16,400 310,925 225,550 13,674 200 900 33,625 5,400 729
2004 179,093 4,010 401 1,654 122,014 500,927 142,638 20,056 437 130,598,377 166,360 190,976 465,261 3,664 55,596 60,593 1,492,887
2003 129,227 7,991 800 1,269 79,901 664,291 179,347 18,139 53 100,823,779 156,569 206,862 489,123 5,050 53,766 42,495 1,187,819
2002 156,699 5,595 259 2,107 23,852 476,467 121,226 14,665 318 105,580,961 121,443 153,329 849,646 5,688 82,285 18,098 929,518
2001 171,472 6,901 38 2,836 688,149 186,247 25,752 2,225 88,174,799 147,205 109,908 839,069 5,331 119,051 30,050 655,991
8,774 5,834,225 477,712 375 37,612 10,015 6,205
8,564 4,986,456 112,864 780 50,439
4,197 5,235,388 46,355 2,573 71,991
3,339 4,381,924 21,777 4,007 121,895
4,048
4,602
10,941
3,475 11,527 39,650 5,650
230 501 3,390 150
32 281
1,392
1,492
1,318
3,343
207,233,185
140,457,074
109,220,627
113,909,833
95,740,352
2005 263,511
2004 254,304
2003 465,381
2002 570,823
2001 24,311
263,511
254,304
465,381
570,887
24,356
2005 27,245 447 1,746 329 2,697
2004 34,260 30 416 120
2003 39,764
2002 61,086
2001 29,112
32,464
34,826
46,711
61,226
29,830
2005 2,370,161 3,631,939 14,861 512,259 1,709,345 534 6,478 433,288 35,356 242 6
2004 1,970,068 2,854,683
2003 1,328,081 1,690,190
2002 1,063,090 1,380,300
2001 799,506 1,305,470
429,769 1,725,982
497,188 2,157,441
743,237 1,171,843
436,295 1,025,578
554,432 57,189 352 2
195,541 29,532 578 3
175,794 28,694 69 1
170,756 15,365 932
850 450 13,950
Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) Option W h ea t
Contract Unit 5,000 bu
Total Options
Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) Option American Spring Wheat Hard Red Spring Wheat I ndex Hard Red Winter Wheat I ndex Soft Red Winter Wheat I ndex National Corn I ndex
Contract Unit 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu
Total Options
5,773
New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)** Option Coffee 'C' Sugar #11 Sugar #11 Options on Futures Spreads Cocoa Cotton #2 Cotton #2 Options on Futures Spreads Pulp Orange Juice Frozen Concentrate US Dollar I ndex Euro Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar
44T
Contract Unit 37,500 lbs 112,000 lbs 10 metric tons 50,000 lbs 20 Airdry Metric Tons 15,000 lbs 500 USD x I ndex 200,000 EUR 200,000 AUD
VOLUME U.S. New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)** Option Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar Euro / Australian Dollar Euro / Canadian Dollar Euro / Swedish Krona Euro / British Pound Euro / Japanese Yen British Pound / Japanese Yen Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar US Dollar / Canadian Dollar US Dollar / British Pound Revised NYSE Composite I ndex Russell 1000 I ndex Russell 2000 I ndex Russell 3000 I ndex Reuters-CRB Futures I ndex (CCI ) RJ/CRB Futures I ndex
(Continued) Contract Unit 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 125,000 GBP 200,000 CAN 200,000 NZD 200,000 USD 125,000 GBP 50 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 200 USD x I ndex
2005 2 1 1 6 122 88 116 14 1 2 3 10 37,872 142,299 32,362 1,568 1,694 1,539
2004
2003
2002
2001
67 40 17
253 776 209
14 104 156
936 685 16
45 25 26,952 103,944 36,305 4,647 3,515
60 31 18,912 61,264 734
140
8,932,169
1,449
9,905
1,913
974
891
7,774,379
6,010,110
4,656,335
3,857,721
2005 2,889,803 1,131,812 143,609
2004 4,667,523 1,022,348 216,350
2003 4,310,318 560,018 47,326
2002 1,948,564 530,831 37,315
2001 1,975,019 483,386 50,826
4,165,224
5,906,221
4,920,341
2,516,710
2,509,231
2005 404 983,388 12,868 8,302 973,849 2,700 5,841 14,726,263 440,234 510 12,267 45,250 9,168,354 103,058 1,525 3,175 56,142 82,505 73,640 6,968,569 119,218 24,339 25,270
2004 637 800,277 1,880 1,134 904,466 3,175 300 11,512,918 357,156
2003 633 668,859 2,430
2002 456 602,170 747
2001 1,813 704,972
616,245 3,465
721,932 1,087
1,040,030
10,237,121 164,928
11,460,857 92,603
7,726,076
9,600 23,622 8,071,967 47,328
825 131 8,742,277 13,557
2,905 10,966,023 4,636
35,797 28,747
200 6,521 6,364
25,270
12,270
33,837,671 38,002,895
23,967,338 29,873,559
20,515,440 25,435,781
23,868,006 26,384,716
15,475,878 17,985,109
2005 367,969,679
2004 289,158,384
2003 221,700,069
2002 213,149,576
2001 167,992,323
PERCENT CHANGE 27.26% 30.43% 4.01% * I ncludes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange. ** I ncludes Commodity Exchange, I nc.
26.88%
63.21%
Total Options**
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)* COMEX Division Option Gold Silver High Grade Copper
Contract Unit 1 0 0 oz 5,000 oz 25,000 lbs
Total Options
NYMEX Division Option Platinum Heating Oil Heating Oil 1-month CSO Heating Oil APO Unleaded Gasoline Unleaded Gasoline 1-month CSO Unleaded Gasoline APO Crude Oil Crude Oil 1-month CSO Crude Oil 2-month CSO Crude Oil 12-month CSO Crude Oil APO Natural Gas Natural Gas 1-month CSO Natural Gas 2-month CSO Natural Gas 3-month CSO Gas-Crude Oil Spread Heating Oil-Crude Oil Spread PJM Monthly European Style Natural Gas European Style Crude Oil European Style Heating Oil European Style Unleaded Gasoline Total Options Total Options*
Contract Unit 5 0 oz 42,000 gal
1,000 bbl
1,000 bbl
10,000 MMBTU
1,000 bbl 1,000 bbl
500 79,664 98,503 3,985 2,012,703 17,080 8,023 12,270
5,974,240
14,992 13,014
Total US Options Volume TOTAL OPTIONS
45T
Volume Worldwide Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), Australia S&P/ASX I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures S&P / ASX I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 106,237 490,238 596,475 1,163,213 21,828,002 22,991,215
2004 66,256 460,501 526,757 794,121 19,164,851 19,958,972
2003 67,769 267,630 335,399 578,066 15,988,740 16,566,806
2002
2001
2005 2,257,756 73 266,362,631 268,620,460
2004 1,586,762 36 233,759,713 235,349,514
2003 1,600,261
2002 1,144,628
2001
175,622,679 177,223,140
89,740,269 90,884,897
BOVESPA, Braz il Ibovespa Index Exchange Traded Funds All Options on Individual Equities Total Options
Budapest Commodity Exchange (BCE), Hungary Corn CE Corn F eed W h ea t Feed Barley W h ea t C E W h ea t Sunflower Seed Rapeseed Ammonium Nitrate US Dollar Japanese Yen EUR British Pound Polish Zloty Swiss Franc EURCHF EURUSD EURJPY EURPLN GBPCHF GBPJPY GBPUSD USDCHF USDJPY USDPLN 3-Month BUBOR Total Futures Corn W h ea t Sunflower Seed US Dollar EUR EUR/CZK EUR/JPY EUR/PLN EUR/USD GBP/CHF GBP/JPY GBP/USD USD/PLN Total Options
2005 6,431 95 755 41
2004 9,617 6 1,351 366
2003 12,513
2002 9,450
2001 15,733
711 354
1,316 118
2,403 433 14,987
928 8 1,499 148 1 89,433 7,700 162,171 4,600 509 15,130 475 18,554 1,136 5,604 1,653 1,925 78,060 1,353 1,943 8,610 100 408,862 365 150 55 11,000 92,200 500 4,015 35,830 4,269 3,959 4,829 515 2,930 160,617
4,246 1 1,909 270 1 401,800 57,980 615,144 26,134 1,258 44,930 215 5,255 578 2,441 551 1,825 2,896 231 620 1,249 4,320 1,185,507 432 90
6,883
9,271
1,031 24 3 1,153,307 197,763 1,602,075 62,270 3,565 188,786 111 937 373 433 27
392
1,101
2 389,001 179,650 698,888 4,410 1,330 32,780
17 425,125 226,639 1,840,127 15,426
68 86 139 719 1,540 3,237,088 888 242
3,400 1,338,846 305 150
7,585 2,612,788 511 164
113,970
414,095
260,850
11,000
225 44
15
436,890
285,555
11,675
2005 21,859,732 40,035,707 541,093 36,738,182 99,174,714
2004 5,828,045 57,340,803 114,347 24,750,958 88,034,153
2003
2002
2001
60,000,808
12,689,935
14,953,398 74,973,493
4,404,134 48,407,404
63,010
10 448 115,219
Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), China Corn No 1 Soybeans No 2 Soybeans Soybean Meal Total Futures
46T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F), Braz il Arabica Coffee Live Cattle Live Cattle, Mini Feeder Cattle Sugar Crystal Cotton Corn Soybean Futures Gold Forward Gold Gold Spot Anhydrous Fuel Alcohol Bovespa Stock I ndex Futures I NrX-50 I PA C Bovespa Mini I ndex I nterest Rate I nterest Rate Swap I nterest Rate x Exchange Rate Swap I nterest Rate x Reference Rate Swap I nterest Rate x Price I ndex Swap (formerly I nflation) I nterest Rate x I bovespa I ndex Swap Exchange Rate Swap Price I ndex x Exchange Rate Swap Price I ndex I nterest Rate x I BrX-50 I D x US Dollar Spread Futures FRA on I D x US Dollar Spread I D x US Dollar Spread Swap Mini I D x US Dollar Swap with reset Global 2009 Global 2011 Global 2013 Global 2014 Global 2019 Global 2040 A-Bond 2018 C-Bond US Dollar Mini US Dollar US Dollar forward points Total Futures Gold on Actuals Gold Exercise US $ Denominated Arabica Coffee US $ Denominated Arabica Coffee Exercise Live Cattle Bovespa Stock Bovespa Stock Exercise Bovespa Stock Volatility I nterest Rate I nterest Rate (I DI ) I nterest Rate (I DI ) Exercise I nterest Rate (volatility) I DI I ndex (exercise) I DI I ndex (volatility) Fexible Bovespa Stock I ndex US Dollar on Actuals US Dollar Exercise US Dollar Volatility Flexible Currency Total Options
2005 485,902 311,459 24,984 3,031 63,385 3,338 97,795 47,360 668 2,640 42,336 25,466 6,065,361 6,362 5,220 606,582 121,249,186 260,404 382,326 18,536 829,982 1,760 21,035 42 5,401 776 926,171 20,642,962 232,609 37,330 888 200 80 460 760 232,883 396 12,965 33,466,104 827,427 908,062 187,850,634 149,932 28,540 22,341 1,662 71 6,344 9,380 43,815 268,819 2,058,806 147,840 539,825 237,895 351,575 85,279 6,251,235 391,221 793,665 207,585 11,595,830
2004 620,997 225,200
2003 478,544 113,473
2002 446,115 152,939
2001 475,034 92,365
1,024 47,347 60 52,600 7,225 15 2,742 57,609 40,453 7,063,923 6,265
9,475 40,257 172 43,902 2,917 483
1,295 48,326 75 16,616 624 4,425
93,904 15 4,588 83 484
98,386 49,158 6,630,407 85
65,892 62,896 5,231,780
42,971 67,527 5,151,572
2,892,016 100,290,263 1,005,212 1,189,805 9,762 775,591 1,175 27,069
1,158,155 57,641,625 888,957 3,520,170 5,052 666,988 435 9,778
592,342 48,568,401 474,713 3,185,443 1,628 183,647 224 1
110,943 46,241,111 964,419 3,645,863 27,953 99,900 1,392
14,255
13,200
536,358 33,326,518 126,525
731,544 22,823,905 234,958
586,143 18,571,494 981,454
1,375,846 16,524,996
79,645
160
25,919 23,943,757 608,772 365,914 173,533,508 236,058 62,378 50,148 3,206 550 21,730 11,350 56,885 1,253,545 2,224,832 154,100 879,575 131,099 143,180 687,412 2,708,961 147,645 255,150 866,474 9,894,430
35,903 16,784,939 625,382 227,097 113,895,061 173,142 82,728 37,423 1,143 764
13,696 16,132,798 182,673 116,199 95,912,579 213,130 102,904 34,689 2,720
2,605 18,636,578 10,845
182,183 1,772,583 155,263 9,810 1,185 1,216,418 2,148,440 130,187 30,030 949,200 6,890,541
94,175,252 156,447 58,316 12,818 1,130 1,204
2,539,353 15,910
1,129,060 89,013
578,467 947,759 152,174
273,888 1,211,601 139,057
1,098,543 5,703,209
570,739 3,696,233
47T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), Hungary Budapest Stock I ndex (BUX) Budapest Stock Mid & SmallCap I ndex (BUMI X) 3-Month BUBOR 5-Year Government Bond JPY/HUF CHF/HUF CZK/HUF EUR/HUF GBP/HUF PLN/HUF TRL/HUF TRY/HUF USD/HUF AUD/USD CAD/JPY CHF/JPY GBP/USD GBP/CHF GBP/JPY GBP/SEK EURO/CHF EURO/CZK EURO/GBP EURO/NOK EURO/JPY EURO/PLN EURO/ROL EURO/RON EURO/SEK EURO/TRY EURO/USD DAUD/USD DCAD/JPY DCHF/JPY DEUR/CHF DEUR/CZK DEUR/GBP DEUR/JPY DEUR/NOK DEUR/PLN DEUR/SEK DEUR/USD DGBP/CHF DGBP/JPY DGBP/USD DUSD/CAD DUSD/CHF DUSD/CZK DUSD/JPY DUSD/PLN NOK/JPY USD/CAD USD/CHF USD/CZK USD/JPY USD/PLN USD/TRY EUR (1 week) USD (1 week) DEUR/CZK (1 week) DEUR/JPY (1 week) DEUR/PLN (1 week) DEUR/USD (1 week) DGBP/JPY (1 week) DGBP/USD (1 week) DUSD/CAD (1 week) DUSD/CHF (1 week) DUSD/JPY (1 week) All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures
48T
2005 529,512 51 890 500 18,000 31,208 61,120 682,116 54,850 21,550 700 41,500 494,057 950 34,900 46,000 1,137,635 395,540 368,703 100,600 67,850 58,620 106,800 38,050 465,122 95,300 11,800 29,100 153,200 105,740 1,112,158 31,800 1,950 2,000 2,300 6,000 4,800 43,100 600 7,200 10,800 151,100 12,400 52,600 81,140 138,600 6,200 200 6,800 3,900 10,000 17,750 249,547 11,400 573,360 57,500 253,532 12,300 12,500 750 4,500 20,000 34,250 25,700 63,900 400 200 1,200 737,069 8,913,470
2004 376,679 51 3,445
2003 400,003
2002 292,128
2001 1,236,405
41,350 71,800 26,410 583,060 28,000 42,092
67,390 326,090 3,770 514,451 1,000 1,800
3,761 75,150
3,084 7,064
1,600
1,000
227,235
36,586
125,689
116,176
197,560 100,630 311,030 33,800 38,700 2,200 17,500 18,600 46,200 28,300 5,000
72,350 33,000 4,800 23,300 43,575
3,100
150
25,100 23,900 8,200 24,200
51,200 1,500 501,448
2,039,000
117,700
16,440
666,030 5,400 3,800
146,525
1,700
707,875 4,254,595
694,553 4,939,893
452,638 1,072,566
249,750
41,800
879,049 2,286,300
VOLUME WORLDWIDE EUREX, Frankfurt, Germany (formerly DTB and SOFFEX) DAX HEX 25 MDAX TecDAX DJ Global Titans 50 DJ Global I taly Titans 50 DJ Euro STOXX 50 DJ Euro STOXX Automobiles DJ Euro STOXX Banks DJ Euro STOXX Basic Resources DJ Euro STOXX Chemicals DJ Euro STOXX Construction DJ Euro STOXX Cyclical Goods and Services DJ Euro STOXX Energy DJ Euro STOXX Financial Services DJ Euro STOXX Food and Beverage DJ Euro STOXX Healthcare DJ Euro STOXX I ndustry Goods and Services DJ Euro STOXX I nsurance DJ Euro STOXX Media DJ Euro STOXX Non-Cyclical Goods and Services DJ Euro STOXX Media DJ Euro STOXX Technology DJ Euro STOXX Telecom DJ Euro STOXX Utilities DJ STOXX 50 DJ STOXX Mid 200 DJ STOXX 600 DJ STOXX 600 Automobiles & Parts DJ STOXX 600 Banks DJ STOXX 600 Basic Resources DJ STOXX 600 Chemicals DJ STOXX 600 Oil & Gas DJ STOXX 600 Construction & Materials DJ STOXX 600 Financial Services DJ STOXX 600 Food & Beverage DJ STOXX 600 Healthcare DJ STOXX 600 I ndustrial G&S DJ STOXX 600 I nsurance DJ STOXX 600 Media DJ STOXX 600 Personal & Household Goods DJ STOXX 600 Retail DJ STOXX 600 Technology DJ STOXX 600 Telecom DJ STOXX 600 Tracel & Leisure DJ STOXX 600 Utilities Swiss Market I ndex (SMI ) Swiss Market I ndex Mid-Cap (SMI M) Dax-New (VDAX) DJ Euro Stoxx 50 (VSTOXX) Swiss Government Bond (CONF) Euro-BUND Euro-BOBL Euro-BUXL 3-Month Euribor Euro-SCHATZ Exchange Traded Funds All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures DAX HEX 25 TecDAX DJ Global Titans 50 I ndex DJ I taly Titans 30 I ndex DJ Euro STOXX 50 DJ Euro STOXX Automobile DJ Euro STOXX Banks DJ Euro STOXX Chemicals DJ Euro STOXX Energy DJ Euro STOXX Financial Services
2005 32,722,572 41,761 72,351 269,354 2,038 27,079 139,983,083 82,203 233,955 31,221 9,464 2,343 12,963 118,601 5,111 22,700 9,694 11,220 169,198 26,035 5,910 9,568 218,982 177,863 75,356 807,761 3,554 895 30,368 84,118 30,441 3,861 35,459 4,103 9,695 24,807 117,720 21,844 65,660 14,955 7,187 6,161 55,280 112,686 9,706 63,814 8,639,822 4,638 166 109 372,385 299,287,916 158,262,122 470,831 688,831 141,228,207 13,425 77,802 784,896,954 53,633,130 1,201 23,923 15 14 90,808,086 35,719 119,125 458 90,726 250
2004 29,229,847 24,934
2003 27,181,218 32,589
2002 19,996,503 44,524
2001 14,686,359
456,346 333 70,403 121,661,944 99,776 243,541 18,018 5,254 573 5,358 118,457 1,050 16,382 4,288 844 236,325 8,863 2,035 1,983 160,160 182,949 12,705 798,106
181,954 2,017
965
871
116,035,326 152,714 483,451 10,185 54 481 40 105,614 995 8,538 3,281 230 323,207 8,339 444 42 281,967 192,907 16,927 970,107
86,354,731 83,677 560,757
37,828,500
303,315 279,535 1,304 690,719
452,830
8,595
25,376
11,259
41,394
100,674
11,968
32,222 647
113,478
77,762 110 9,037
2,399
151,250 698
82,321 47,967
3,261 166 347 70,931 1,527 18,803 305
170
15,887 19,596
8,331 20,537
13,306 20,403
5,152 6,900
29,622 8,098,575
9,651 8,969,235
7,019,626
5,099,537
308,206 239,787,517 159,166,394
275,392 191,263,413 114,678,996 12,668 527,815 108,760,955 56,126
416,883 178,011,304 99,578,068
585,142 122,928,076 78,393
284,809 244,414,274 150,087,139 666 503,951 117,370,528 187,996
684,630,502 42,184,611 1,050 27,370 29
668,650,028 41,521,920 7,128 13,477 48
536,013,920 44,027,830 14
435,141,707 44,102,502
40
104
71,406,377 24,536 150,913 2 46,243 160
61,794,673 50,673 413,834 2 63,427 307
39,477,430 35,303 898,989
19,046,893
663,980 92,637,630
20,434
64,012 146
49T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE EUREX, Frankfurt, Germany
(Continued)
(formerly DTB and SOFFEX) DJ Euro STOXX Food and Beverage DJ Euro STOXX Healthcare DJ Euro STOXX I ndustrial Goods & Services DJ Euro STOXX I nsurance DJ Euro STOXX Media DJ Euro STOXX Retail DJ Euro STOXX Technology DJ Euro STOXX Telecom DJ Euro STOXX Travel & Leisure DJ Euro STOXX Utilities DJ STOXX 50 DJ STOXX 600 Banks DJ STOXX 600 Basic Resources DJ STOXX 600 Healthcare DJ STOXX 600 I ndustrial Goods & Services DJ STOXX 600 I nsurance DJ STOXX 600 Media DJ STOXX 600 Oil & Gas DJ STOXX 600 Technology DJ STOXX 600 Telecom DJ STOXX 600 Travel & Leisure DJ STOXX 600 Utilities DJ STOXX Mid 200 I ndex Swiss Market I ndex (SMI ) Euro-BUND Euro-SCHATZ Euro-BOBL All Options on I ndividual SMI Component Equities All Options on Nordic Equities All Options on Dutch Equities All Options on Exchange Traded Funds All Options on French Equities All Options on German Equities All Options on I talian Equities All Options on US Equities Total Options
2005 17,910 5,250 1,050 46,600 22,492 2,500 58,830 113,758 18,700 33,230 29,052 10,887 13,966 32,984 1,360 8,399 310 29,824 600 27,723 486 13,679 1,584 4,134,470 39,014,844 11,546,405 7,990,587 58,463,793 16,109,249 12,834,633 42,278 4,867,961 162,437,728 785,918 419,511 463,851,198
2004 300 600
2003
2002
2001
19
2,456
96
91,371 799
269,736
114,021
28,102 39,396
86,830 110,664
382,141 314,976
19,031 9,677
14,952 1,865 3,850 20,017
55,417
39,594
44,400
11,270
45,040
1,000 3,405
4 2
1,000
1,633
3,645,596 30,896,920 9,782,863 10,829,250 47,714,268 17,836,215 8,364,977 85,478 2,743,950 134,857,678 187,948 15,207 381,008,508
3,983,918 27,316,536 11,723,090 10,498,534 46,302,221 13,265,471 6,862,703 70,350 1,487,428 120,211,761 80,041 30,198 346,282,284
4,230,082 18,125,981 8,954,263 4,529,387 34,496,338 20,601,113 2,708,256 6,069 246,562 85,111,674 16,675 123,966 265,186,953
38,196 239,052,063
2005 27,867 7,397,665 14,704 5,640 1,795 7,447,671 7,104 290,839 113,118 19,753,393 23,934 71,297,264 91,485,652
2004 11,876 5,651,747 5,827 2,026 1,959 5,701,122 2,426 139,758 99,322 17,093,573 34,539 60,196,898 77,566,516
2003
2002
2001
5,215,465 6,639 1,405 1,088 5,298,861
4,231,053 12,401 568 1,077 4,328,952
3,317,913 8,211 2,346 2,234 3,437,501
74,279 64,045 14,120,099 131,209 59,754,703 74,145,895
21,692 40,677 9,133,875 86,403 64,076,106 73,368,051
29,760 39,790 6,569,129 50,241 56,348,323 63,065,039
2005 603,069 603,069 117,795 392,377 510,172
2004 759,710 759,710 271,717 326,844 598,561
2003 328,673 328,673 320,540 319,850 640,390
2002 507,229 2,653,399 747,161 450,734 1,197,895
2001 543,501 3,438,621 727,853 404,559 1,132,412
2005 64,252 413,315 477,567
2004 114,955 520,966 635,921
2003 214,415 560,224 774,639
2002 346,134 2,928,883 3,275,017
2001
3,179,143 22,054,064 10,075,031 6,188,962 35,239,133 16,165,675 835,418
276,825
EURONEXT, Amsterdam (Formerly EOE, AFM and AEX, Netherlands) Potatoes (FAP) AEX Stock I ndex (FTI ) Light AEX Stock I ndex (FTI L) Euro/US Dollar (FED) US Dollar/Euro (FDE) Total Futures Potato (OPA) Euro / US Dollar (EDX) US Dollar / Euro EOE Stock I ndex Light AEX Stock I ndex (AEXL) All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
EURONEXT, Brussels (Formerly BELFOX) Bel 20 I ndex (BXF) Total Futures Bel 20 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
EURONEXT, Lisbon PSI -20 I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures
50T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE EURONEXT, United Kingdom (LCE merged w ith LIFFE in 1996) 3-Month Short Sterling 3-Month Euroswiss 3-Month Euroyen Tibor 1-Month Eonia 3-Month Euribor 3-Month Eurodollar Long Gilt 2-Year Swapnote EUR 5-Year Swapnote EUR 10-Year Swapnote EUR 10-Year Swapnote USD Japanese Government Bond FTSE 100 I ndex FTSE Eurotop 100 I ndex FTSE Eurotop 300 I ndex FTSEurofirst 80 I ndex MSCI Euro I ndex MSCI Pan-Euro I ndex FTSE Mid 250 I ndex Cocoa #7 Robusta Coffee W h ea t White Sugar All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures 3-Month Short Sterling 3-Month Sterling Mid-curve 3-Month Euroswiss 3-Month Euribor 3-Month Euribor Mid Curve 3-Month Eurodollar 3-Month Eurodollar Mid Curve FTSE 100 I ndex (ESX) FTSEurofirst 80 I ndex FTSE 100 I ndex FLEX Cocoa US Dollar Coffee W h ea t White Sugar All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 68,029,052 8,286,258 22 2,640 166,682,115 5,662,806 17,760,359 322,212 387,005 434,759 63,566 101,127 21,522,583 74,667 539,802 68,036 21,114 521,591 39,238 2,690,105 3,263,253 65,324 1,497,150 11,744,778 309,779,562 25,096,889 3,173,334 44,103 44,138,922 7,017,840 10,820 100 14,473,441 485 1,189,652 95,814 237,544 3,070 81,598 9,085,505 104,649,117
2004 51,324,125 7,296,932 736 35,152 157,746,684 4,666,508 14,045,404 458,492 688,952 653,046 2,968 80,569 20,772,878 88,475 814,030 277,661 60,414 474,949 32,896 2,643,199 3,054,386 75,455 1,251,233 12,929,406 279,474,981 16,139,006 1,461,723 49,251 52,245,463 6,433,100 376
2003 42,323,094 5,009,460
2002 34,307,727 4,976,206
2001 34,945,053 4,694,391
58,341 137,692,190
105,756,584
91,083,198
7,789,011 977,127 1,437,955 1,613,672 50,102 37,723 17,238,726 129,414
6,710,557 686,450 1,502,104 1,967,221 72,182 12,698,908 130,824
114,576 552,460 804 1,802,142 1,905,319 80,784 1,044,806 3,935,121 184,026,644 7,364,057 346,001 81,467 33,481,758 1,419,271
124,202 373,259 559 1,514,384 1,547,838 95,676 898,261 2,325,744 161,522,775 7,692,455 427,975 82,145 21,643,698 963,417
17,866,310 521 1,178,067 170,079 248,990 2,387 94,705 11,578,961 107,484,253
14,619,893 1,841 1,066,997 188,822 143,148 3,262 66,561 10,108,068 104,117,793
13,263,116
11,848,155
595,486 194,682 139,394 8,092 43,900 12,889,422 69,954,984
229,152 94,505 80,197 12,693 70,526 10,725,183 54,225,252
2005 217,171 81,965 211,281 25,011,372 25,521,789 8,192 9,810 1,622 31,069,890 2,802,039 183,560,708 217,452,261
2004 160,200 71,124 191,644 24,058,528 24,481,496 8,075 7,109
2003 114,758 90,973 174,538 29,319,624 29,711,816 7,003 7,643
2002 107,602 98,654 165,462 26,411,321 26,991,450 9,834 1,679
2001 57,159 57,664 135,655 22,923,597 42,042,673 7,554
63,152,339
73,668,131
84,342,670
107,251,388
230,863,609 294,031,132
174,487,319 248,170,096
246,165,884 330,520,413
178,330,328 285,592,240
2003 4,263,886 2,570,238 468,083 7,302,565 2,505,351 7,924,078 10,429,429
2002 4,877,464 2,132,937 59,853 7,071,028 2,588,402 7,587,199 10,175,601
2001 4,634,329 1,400,135
10,150,267 580,516 1,022,358 1,031,016 28,595 44,613 20,252,114 109,846 344,100 210,171 107,207 563,944 5,422 2,328,609 2,320,831 91,387 1,062,494 6,349,198 231,708,154 14,162,149 967,384 65,925 57,733,239 4,907,879
EURONEXT, Paris (Formerly MATIF and MONEP, France) W h ea t # 2 Corn Rapeseed CAC 40 Stock I ndex 10 Euro Total Futures Rapeseed W h ea t Corn CAC 40 I ndex, 1 EUR CAC 40 I ndex, 10 EUR All Options on I ndividual Equities* Total Options
Italian Derivatives Market of the Italian Stock Exchange, Italy MI B 30 I ndex Mini FI B 30 I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures MI B 30 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 3,580,695 1,294,606 5,957,674 10,832,975 2,597,830 12,439,716 15,037,546
2004 3,331,843 1,485,112 1,734,256 6,551,211 2,220,807 9,500,498 11,721,305
6,035,207 2,716,271 8,329,533 11,045,804
51T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), United Kingdom Crude Oil Gasoil Natural Gas - Seasons Natural Gas - Quarters Natural Gas Daily (NBP) Natural Gas Monthly (NBP) ECX European Emissions (Monthly) Electricity Baseload - Monthly Electricity Baseload - Quarters Electricity Baseload - Seasons Electricity Peak - Daily Electricity Peak - Monthly Electricity Peak - Quarters Electricity Peak - Seasons Total Futures Crude Oil Gasoil Total Options
2005 30,412,027 10,971,719 11,520 9,045 50 423,565 94,348 2,500 1,380 8,190 135 420 30 1,680 41,936,609 44,421 74,055 118,476
2004 25,458,259 9,355,767 15,090 24,045 90 609,350
2003 24,012,969 8,429,981 600 1,590 74,180 737,610
2002 21,493,486 8,156,358 450 4,155 180 578,925
2001 18,396,069 7,230,408 1,005 3,900 1,540 462,665
35,466,941 28,688 45,154 73,842
33,258,385 49,520 33,339 82,859
30,233,664 146,809 61,001 207,810
26,098,207 252,217 60,240 312,457
2005 11,223,244 567 2,757 43,848,706 37,200 103,619 2,667,005 57,883,098 2,535,201,692 3,655 2,535,205,347
2004 7,352,307 61 2,621 55,608,856 206,221
2003 10,285,042 171,538 207,209 62,204,783 727,997
2002 12,777,991
2001 9,323,430
1,688 42,868,164 380,491
31,502,184 466,479
2,090,291 65,261,326 2,521,557,274 1 2,521,557,276
1,506,123 75,159,690 2,837,724,953 8,159 2,837,734,344
1,434,591 57,465,025 1,889,823,786 57,918 1,889,908,138
1,676,979 42,971,090 823,289,608
2004 29,232,921 429,459 1,192,100 18,171,204 3,786,375 3,177,206 10,211,096 971,612
2003 26,953,102 703,356 833,022 19,437,740 4,504,246 4,220,434 10,470,171 1,448,083
2002 22,330,491 895,726 173,127 16,579,090 3,411,156 3,187,275 8,100,114 1,625,470
2001 23,767,595 819,206
67,171,973 2,217,021 288 2,385 1,721,914 76,342 119,942 471,097 3,227 55,539 37,438 10,653 4,014 475 1,632 12,571 4,734,928
68,570,154 1,618,895 541 50 1,239,523 95,967 144,489 386,652 8,070 137,598 90,381 1,551 4,950
56,303,779 877,429 379 22 888,068 50,413 67,781 300,347 14,671 74,943 32,939 1,697 6,642
56,224,495 1,547,829 5,787
768 8,738 3,738,173
14,884 2,330,225
14,807 3,188,755
1,070 900 2,280
Korea Futures Exchange (KFE), Korea * Transferred from KSE Korea Treasury Bonds 5-Year Treasury Bond Monetary Stabilization Bond *KOPSI 200 KOSDAQ 50 I ndex STAR I ndex US Dollar Total Futures *KOPSI 200 I ndex *All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
823,289,693
London Metal Exchange (LME), United Kingdom High Grade Primary Aluminum Aluminum Alloy North American Special Aluminum Alloy Copper - Grade A Standard Lead Primary Nickel Special High Grade Zinc Tin Polypropylene Linear Low Total Futures High Grade Primary Aluminum Aluminum Alloy North American Special Aluminum Alloy Copper - Grade A Standard Lead Primary Nickel Special High Grade Zinc Tin Primary Aluminum TAPOS Copper Grade A TAPOS Lead TAPOS Nickel TAPOS Tin TAPOS NASAA TAPOS Special High Grade Zinc TAPOS Total Options
52T
2005 30,426,465 501,960 1,001,412 19,231,371 4,061,819 3,482,593 10,620,618 1,095,031 15,770 7,626 70,444,665 4,107,102 369,068 10,069 2,091,198 128,283 189,903 1,011,429 14,012 129,657 55,907 8,116 12,610 2,014 33,194 21,625 8,184,187
17,797,929 3,096,929 3,194,758 6,113,484 1,432,814
1,053,373 86,098 133,039 188,147 27,150 80,244 39,472 1,512 10,937
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, Malaysia (formerly the KLCE and KLOFFE) Crude Palm Oil 3-Month KLI BOR 3-Year Malaysian Gov't Securities (FMG3) 5-Year Malaysian Gov't Securities (FMG5) 10-Year Malaysian Gov't Securities (FMG10) KLSE Composite I ndex (FKLI ) Total Futures
2005 1,158,510 162,592 9,753 17,215 100 1,111,575 2,459,745
2004 1,378,334 141,969 4,327 19,494
2003 1,434,713 126,289 781 116,221
2002 911,015 61,369
2001 479,799 54,914
1,088,419 2,632,543
331,445 2,009,460
231,444 1,276,787
287,528 822,241
2005 46 46
2004 95 95
2003 1,382 1,382
2002 46,771 46,771
2001 290,608 290,608
2005 4,591,196 1,490,080 18,813,689 24,894,965 4,407,465 10,915,227 15,322,692
2004 4,354,868 1,182,497 12,054,799 17,592,164 2,947,529 8,200,314 11,147,843
2003 3,545,942 1,070,853 12,492,568 17,109,363 2,981,593 11,378,992 14,360,585
2002 3,896,643 724,424 12,645,186 17,267,294 2,693,086 18,701,248 24,068,192
2001 4,305,035 22,423 8,766,165 13,108,293 557,306 22,628,132 23,628,446
2004 17,348 8,000 495 42,701 68,544 3,302 811 703 12,233 17,049
2003 9,014 2,694 161 17,569 29,438 1,960 538
2002
2001 44,607 36,421 8,440 59,436 148,987 20,492 8,140 1,764 16,864 47,286
2004 36
2003 859
2002 1,913
2001 11,632
56,468 309 7,679,077
11,912 615 2,694,348
11,811 555 385,139
145,655 1,107
7,735,890 59,449
2,708,313 1,134
399,432 4,636
159,935 55,304
368,182 427,655
132,871 134,183
3,957 9,038
63,898
2004 1,289,386
2003 81,395
2002 52,108
327,942 2,418,381 206,027,203 278,644 13,455 210,355,031 35,943
220,731 11,398,544 162,077,312 38,279
49,243 3,568,951 80,595,463
173,820,944
84,274,979
72,959
MEFF Renta Fija (RF), Spain 10-Year Notional Bond Total Futures
MEFF Renta Variable (RV), Spain I BEX 35 Plus I ndex Mini I BEX 35 I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures I BEX 35 Plus I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires (MATBA), Argentina W h ea t Corn Sunflower Soybean Total Futures W h ea t Corn Sunflowerseed Soybean Total Options
2005 34,863 10,535 824 68,598 114,820 7,074 569 126 13,146 20,915
7,675 10,173
Mercado a Termino de Rosario (ROFEX), Argentina W h ea t Corn Soybeans Rosafe Soybean I ndex (I SR) Rosafe Corn I ndex (I MR) US Dollar (DLR) Euro (EC) Total Futures Rosafe Soybean I ndex (I SR) Rosafe Corn I ndex (I MR) US Dollar (DLR) Total Options
2005 41 8 504 116,281 2,139 12,931,695 580 13,051,248 44,307 2,969 316,925 364,201
Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER), Mexico US Dollar Euro FX I PC Stock I ndex C E T E 91 T I I E 28 M10 Bond All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures I PC Stock I ndex Exchange Traded Funds All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 2,934,658 125 410,565 4,509,002 99,830,916 284,460 19,400 107,989,126 38,329 730 149,091 188,150
2001
4,290 40,233
53T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Montreal Exchange (ME), Canada 3-Month Bankers Acceptance (BAX) Canadian Government Bonds (OBA) 2-Year Canadian Gov't Bond (CGZ) 10-Year Canadian Gov't Bond (CGB) S&P Canada 60 I ndex (SXF) Gold I ndex (SXA) Banking I ndex (SXB) I nformation Technology I ndex (SXH) Energy I ndex (SXY) Total Futures 3-Month Bankers Acceptance (OBX) US Dollar (USX) S&P Canada 60 I ndex (SXF) i60 I ndex (XI U) Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold I ndex Fund (XGD) Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Financials I ndex Fund (XFN) Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped I T I ndex Fund (XI T) Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy I ndex Fund (XEG) All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 11,157,298 7 132,637 4,692,287 2,234,406 9,898 266 172 13,662 18,240,633 377,370 7,264 27,897 176,498 111,502 99,079 7,942 227,268 9,409,938 10,444,758
2004 7,765,060 605 218,069 3,005,359 1,906,038 774 186 726 2,524 12,900,821 265,937
2003 6,578,451 3,754
2002 4,789,319
2001 4,234,236
2,397,119 1,681,994 1,454 110 6,890 452 10,676,279 341,245
1,803,420 1,450,860 739 187 7,071 85 8,058,498 57,950
1,835,229 1,174,328
38,892 120,502 54,561 73,006 11,800 37,783 8,311,818 8,914,307
38,221 130,508 18,199 101,914 9,721 10,917 6,355,251 7,006,720
47,749 237,325
35,585 127,731
6,086,675 6,433,473
5,099,894 5,372,930
7,260,999 89,339
National Stock Exchange of India S&P CNX Nifty I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures S&P CNX Nifty I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 47,375,214 68,911,754 116,286,968 10,140,239 5,224,485 15,364,724
2004 23,354,782 44,051,780 67,406,562 2,812,109 4,874,958 7,687,067
2003 10,557,024 25,573,756 36,141,561 1,332,417 5,607,990 6,940,407
2002 1,641,779 8,557,332 10,199,111 314,478 2,773,524 3,088,002
2001 750,956 435,701 1,186,657 7,596 55,304 62,900
2004 104 788 491,706 492,666 4,515 4,515
2003
2002
2001
735 484,263 486,120 7,130 7,130
2,000 607,453 614,831 8,909 12,187
32,319 915,225 1,010,852 18,320 34,932
2002 5,586,173 13,331,795 1,290,181 22,799,941 4,916,726 35,795,942 41,302,030
2001 7,033,675 14,906,505 1,468,018 24,855,749 4,587,544 34,729,075 39,514,281
New Zealand Futures Exchange (NZFOE), New Zealand NZ Broad Wool 10-Year Government Stock 90-Day Bank Bill Total Futures 90-Day Bank Bill Total Options
2005 30 891 982,302 983,223 2,850 2,850
OMX Exchanges (OMX), Sw eden (formerly Copenhagen (FUTOP), FOME, Helsinki, Stockholm) I nterest Rate OMX I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures OMX I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 8,223,372 20,259,029 5,659,824 34,142,225 12,229,146 57,138,565 69,367,711
2004 6,546,035 16,460,920 4,257,168 27,819,175 8,946,939 58,171,571 67,267,464
2003 6,674,408 14,567,900 1,424,890 24,926,194 6,371,381 43,098,768 49,941,546
Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE), Norw ay Forwards OBX Total Futures OBX All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 1,796,570 562,591 2,359,161 515,538 3,325,368 3,840,906
2004 1,071,127 677,615 1,748,742 681,783 2,921,209 3,602,992
2003 436,943 764,376 1,201,319 543,090 2,079,405 2,622,495
2002 191,374 689,904 881,278 700,313 1,594,138 2,294,451
2001 302,497 521,314 837,341 662,394 2,346,339 3,008,733
2005 12,352,026 2,125,020 9,503,158 9,809,550 33,789,754
2004 21,248,370 6,829,499 9,680,649 2,818,855 40,577,373
2003 11,166,288 2,155,498 26,757,964
2002 5,796,300 2,355,796 4,020,987
2001 4,088,943 1,448,192 73,200
40,079,750
12,173,083
5,610,335
Shanghai Metal Exchange, China Copper Aluminum R u b b er Fuel Oil Total Futures
54T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Singapore Exchange (SGX), Singapore Eurodollar Singapore Dollar I nterest Rate Nikkei 225 I ndex Straits Times I ndex S&P CNX Nifty I ndex MSCI Singapore I ndex MSCI Taiwan I ndex Euroyen TI BOR Euroyen LI BOR 10-Year Japanese Gov't Bond Mini Japanese Gov't Bond Total Futures Japanese Government Bond MSCI Taiwan I ndex Nikkei 225 I ndex Total Options
2005 88,393 18,680 11,916,557 546 9,910 1,707,865 8,100,202 2,774,916 8,740 236 1,241,616 25,867,661 725 1,293 156,449 158,467
2004 8,241,545 42,486 7,769,675 1,830 38 1,658,600 6,998,626 2,490,390 34,547 86 931,110 28,169,379 1,990 41,971 205,417 249,378
2003 18,802,104 58,353 7,098,920 6,601
2002 19,504,044 128,034 4,857,565 7,329
2001 17,684,054 111,210 4,573,348 20,023 1,800 488,489 3,902,738 2,711,826 452,559
1,046,326 5,455,812 2,015,211 110,529 92 745,091 35,356,776 2,074 40,274 249,087 291,448
711,687 4,628,247 1,812,175 255,256 360 630,761 32,623,190 247 47,897 201,206 264,205
2004 969,838 228,709 200,663 56,285 3,054 9,289,443 37,117 9 15,931 4,892 3,103 37,596
2003 1,160,919 249,691 186,942 61,055 536 8,521,365 79,270 1,072 41,198
2002 918,764 290,921 86,057 60,271 464 6,975,380 480,497 6,505 146,945
344
668
2,004 15,798
12,053 36,323
35,249
2,933
8,332 1,942 3,872
5,844 1,340 1,856
4,065 846
1,788
8,897,187 19,811,664 333,285 33,385 62,434 5,089 52 11,267,046
4,585,919 14,947,523 535,408 82,062 22,306 7,224 80 10,501,861
2,224,684 11,233,002 443,624 120,599 41,192 7,207 170 10,916,338
811,156 11,868,242 269,887 27,785 8,694 5,775
16,785 2,430 1,980 6,877,254 18,054,220
19,119 3,567 1,800 8,102,185 19,733,581
545,189 30,606,546 228 42,899 291,052 383,316
JSE Securities Exchange (SAFEX), South Africa White Maize (WMAZ) Yellow Maize (YMAZ) WE A T SUNS SOYA All Share I ndex I ndustrial I ndex Gold Mining I ndex (GLDX) Financial I ndex (FI NI ) Financial I ndustrial I ndex (FI NDI ) Government Bond I ndex (GOVI ) FTSE/JSE Shareholder Weighted Top 40 I ndex (DTOP) FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property I ndex (SAPI ) FTSE/JSE RESI 20 I ndex Kruger Rand (KGRD) Kruger Rand Tenth (KGTT) R 153 R 157 R 194 R 201 All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures White Maize (WMAZ) Yellow Maize (YMAZ) WE A T SUNS SOYA FTSE/JSE Top 40 I ndex (ALSI ) FTSE/JSE 25 I ndex (I NDI ) FTSE/JSE FNDI 30 I ndex (FNDI ) FTSE/JSE Capped Top 40 I ndex (CTOP) FTSE/JSE Shareholder Weighted Top 40 I ndex (DTOP) FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property I ndex (SAPI ) FTSE/JSE RESI 20 I ndex R 153 R 157 R 194 All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 806,639 198,625 221,283 78,093 14,945 10,103,226 40,066 336 6,439 33,663 2,811 460,071 6,184 1,419 16,381 300 6,784 1,710 1,808 60 24,455,924 36,456,767 344,269 23,694 61,433 21,115 1,354 10,208,949 202 124,638 33,608 1,226,005 8,160 3,238 2,515 1,418 1,036 2,799,774 14,861,408
2001 563,510 77,933 23,992 25,249 8,044,557 2,304,176 10,585
17,926,295
1,717
3,349 2,227 80 6,827,533 18,536,197
9,449
5,705,719 24,307,477
55T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Taiw an Futures Exchange, Taiw an TAI EX Mini TAI EX Taiwan Stock Exchange Electronic Sector I ndex Taiwan Stock Exchange Bank & I nsurance Sector I ndex Taiwan 50 I ndex 10-Year Government Bond 30-Day Commercial Paper I nterest Rate Total Futures TAI EX TSE Electronic Sector I ndex TSE Financial Sector I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 6,917,375 1,088,523 1,179,643 909,621 9,483 2,887 217 10,107,749 80,096,506 680,026 756,570 1,018,917 82,552,019
2004 8,861,278 1,943,269 1,568,391 2,255,478 6,157 67,705 209,561 14,911,839 43,824,511
2003 6,514,691 1,316,712 990,752 1,126,895 4,068
2002 4,132,040 1,044,058 834,920 366,790
2001 2,844,707 413,343 635,661 452,541
9,953,118 21,720,083
6,377,808 15,664,464
4,346,252 5,137
6,237,079 50,061,590
201,733 21,921,816
15,664,464
5,137
2004 4,622,139
2003 4,288,848
2002 3,761,904
2001 3,881,745
41,862 659,926 14,213,188 22,805,279 8,557,437
25,566 53,141 11,435,471 19,246,934 6,705,904
29,076
40,654
8,486,560 16,459,043 5,200,290
9,108,108 15,718,248 5,296,233
3,700 2,693 1,378 1,630 1,142 1,466 994 358
2,730 2,766 1,335 1,420 1,927 1,762 660 235
160 100 80
2,467 2,003 9,095 1,175 47,822 41,831,862 585,620
1,755 2,756 14,180 175 29,286 33,987,967 414,598
250,876 220,382 1,151,097 583,719 38,972 6,307 86,313 10 177 2,923,478
227,208 237,509 1,048,753 277,905 24,037 1,880 22,629
267,808 301,782 618,011
1,038 2,255,557
20 1,770,371
2003
2002
2001
Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), Australia SPI 200 Listed Property I ndex Australian Dollar 30-Day I nterbank Cash Rate 90-Day Bank Bills 3-Year Treasury Bonds 10-Year Treasury Bonds AU/US 10-year Bond Spread d-cypha NSW Base Load Electricity d-cypha VI C Base Load Electricity d-cypha QLD Base Load Electricity d-cypha SA Base Load Electricity d-cypha NSW Peak Period Electricity d-cypha VI C Peak Period Electricity d-cypha QLD Peak Period Electricity d-cypha SA Peak Period Electricity d-cypha NSW Base $300 CAP d-cypha QLD Base $300 CAP d-cypha VI C Base $300 CAP Fine Wool Broad Wool Greasy Wool MLA/SFE Cattle All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures SPI 200 SPI 200 I ntra Day Cash Settled 90-Day Bank Bills 3-Year Treasury Bond Overnight 3-Year Treasury Bond 3-Year Bonds I ntra-Day 10-Year Treasury Bonds 10-Year Bonds I ntra-Day Overnight 10-Year Treasury Bond d-cypha SA Peak Period Electricity Greasy Wool Total Options
2005 5,597,066 10,300 3,446 1,399,499 16,119,237 22,862,363 11,021,452 1,160 5,692 2,341 2,956 1,322 1,254 4,104 793 161 52 595 308 2,207 409 15,767 1,167 38,156 57,091,807 673,899 6,404 244,940 477,764 1,212,700 508,754 40,041 10,700 57,700 60 197 3,233,159
10 2,013 826 9,520 1,354 29,986 50,968,901 518,511 4,917 175,286 369,708 1,262,942 534,302 60,619 1,845 71,140 50 1,159 3,000,544
310 160 230 45
2,385 944 8,621 12,545 34,075,508 516,432
36,341 29,671
Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), Poland MI DWI G I ndex TECHWI G I ndex WI G 20 I ndex 5-year T-note EURPLN USDPLN All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures WI G20 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
56T
2005 2,541 7,617 5,156,953 32,362 1,146 5,070 172,828 5,378,517 204,626 4,372 208,998
2004 25,424 7,961 3,484,397 1,211 2,244 87,888 3,609,125 78,752 78,752
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), Israel TA-25 I ndex Shekel-Euro Rate Shekel-Dollar Rate Total Futures TA-25 I ndex TA-Banks I ndex Shekel-Dollar Rate Shekel-Euro Rate Total Options
2005 10,910 36 140 11,086 63,096,635 36,781 6,640,621 303,822 70,077,859
2004 8,291
2003 10,210
2002 32,214
2001 53,198
44 8,335 36,921,511 596 5,847,295 598,206 43,367,608
85 10,295 29,352,985 610 8,343,368 391,221 38,088,184
67 32,281 29,425,456 3,453 11,542,803 415,712 41,387,424
53,198 26,871,775 35,940 6,049,954 23,940 32,981,609
2004 50,743 25,607 40,108 7,862 124,320 36,738 4,097 2,077,320 2,118,155
2003 49,441
2002 99,397
2001 271,741
63,439
68,542
164,278
112,880 27,608
167,939 68,903
436,019 123,757
1,252,041 1,279,649
1,090,225 1,159,145
1,239,969 1,365,633
20,568 23,841
2003 59,194 1,547,283 200,701 1,811,616 2,778 4 28,368 31,160
2002 89,136 1,828,122 212,019 2,155,796 1,819 101 35,470 37,487
2001 166,932 2,424,973 237,574 2,903,826 5,728 243 125,236 133,507
2004 8,601,559 1,457,681 1,743,700
2003 6,800,360 1,248,295 47,941
2002 4,802,422 1,107,964
2001 4,400,071 769,886
2,673 733 58,307 2,225 17,274 11,884,152 2,029,068 26,882
9,091 310 47,799 2,012 18,654 8,174,652 2,118,792 32,131
6,773 970 280,257 3,673 21,056 6,228,037 1,070,431 6,176
14,315 629,491 1,175 7,756 5,830,672 716,114
77,758 5,611,832 7,745,540
4,220,638 6,371,561
3,724,760 4,801,367
4,002,655 4,718,880
Wiener Borse - Derivatives Market of Vienna, Austria (formerly the AFOE) ATX I ndex ATF I ndex CeCe (5 Eastern European I ndices) All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures ATX I ndex ATF I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 68,704 35,973 63,722 23,748 192,147 34,631 2,496 816,032 853,159
Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE), Canada W h ea t Canola (Rapeseed) Western Barley Total Futures Western Barley F eed W h ea t Canola Total Options
2005 87,634 1,822,985 136,564 2,047,183 876 1,460 27,111 29,447
2004 87,758 1,737,972 204,635 2,030,455 3,273
Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE), Hong Kong Hang Seng I ndex Mini Hang Seng I ndex H-Shares I ndex FTSE/Xinhua China 25 I ndex Dow Jones I ndustrial Average 1-Month HI BOR 3-Month HI BOR 3-Year Exchange Fund Note All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures Hang Seng I ndex Mini Hang Seng I ndex FTSE/Xinhua China 25 I ndex H-Shares I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2005 9,910,565 1,501,342 1,978,673 2,882 424 246 24,935 1,250 13,069 13,433,386 3,071,822 30,595 7,386 257,425 8,722,393 12,089,621
Zhengz hou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), China Cotton #1 Strong Gluten Wheat Hard White Winter Wheat Total Futures
2005 10,870,825 16,620,096 981,649 28,472,570
2004 2,994,046 11,587,269 9,655,959 24,237,274
2003
2002
2001
2005 3,991 10,264 63,554 1,430 765,921 16,873 29,516 891,549
2004 8,297 31,310 308,943 1,427 2,406,808 92,022 187,926 3,036,733
2003 40,675 28,938 499,526 1,421 1,881,771 44,376 242,676 2,739,383
2002 42,650 30,108 824,629 1,432 1,331,933 754,626 185,608 3,170,986
2001 54,845 122,429 1,478,070 1,437 2,016,968 2,693,858
Fukuoka Futures Exchange (FFE), Japan (Formerly KCE) R ed B ea n s I mported Soybeans Non-GMO Soybeans Refined Sugar Corn Broiler Soybean Meal Total Futures
6,367,607
57T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Kansai Agricultural Commodities Exchange (KANEX), Japan (Formerly OGE, OSE and KGE) R ed B ea n s Non-GMO Soybeans Refined Sugar Raw Sugar Raw Silk (formerly at Kobe Raw Silk Exchange) Frozen Shrimp Corn 75 I ndex Coffee I ndex Total Futures Raw Sugar Total Options
2005 9,769 34,881 2,860 8,181 6,346 511,944 91,007 269,269 934,257 2,944 2,944
2004 12,851 276,396 2,860 36,822 6,665 1,385,143 350,029 726,741 2,803,812 2,928 2,928
2003 12,080 622,337 2,842 18,956 8,009 1,144,264 317,561 1,274,190 3,441,365 2,931 2,931
2002 45,786 767,206 2,864 42,736 69,609 1,937,842 499,912 961,715 4,488,914 3,040 3,040
2001 30,069 971,980 2,874 94,961 269,199 263,520 371,272 2,901,551 6,097 6,097
Central Japan Commodity Exchange (CJCE), Japan (formerly NGSE, NTE, and TDCE) Hen Egg Gasoline Gas Oil Kerosene Ferrous Scrap Total Futures
2005 65,142 11,972,407 37,087 9,790,465 84,465 21,949,566
2004 798,308 15,869,951 1,056,257 15,454,906
2003 399,167 16,705,638
2002 338,291 15,212,512
2001 596,415 14,392,478
13,984,740
14,338,356
12,346,595
33,193,259
31,538,530
30,011,863
27,846,712
2005 17,909,404 141,534 18,070,352 24,894,389 536 1,206,987 26,101,912
2004 14,415,884 167,399 14,583,283 16,560,874 491 1,481,415 18,042,780
2003 13,058,425 172,862 13,231,287 14,958,100 234 45,412 15,003,746
2002 10,841,300 293,438 11,134,754 9,428,235 568 21,415 9,450,218
2001 9,516,875 961,566 10,478,441 6,953,222 609 38,077 6,991,908
2005 581,293 212,805 320,871 459,244 28,044 1,602,257
2004 756,411 826,045 814,328 1,101,198 344,571 3,842,553
2003 1,550,423 1,985,225 1,423,491 963,464 220,618 6,162,589
2002 1,300,492 587,641 1,885,262 1,285,419 69,133 5,207,652
2001 710,872 66,268 967,915 1,438,450
2004 17,385,766 1,473,370 13,890,300 438,934 321,131 23,648,587 13,036,277 2,284,572 235,844 1,732,645 74,447,426 64,308 64,308
2003 26,637,897 1,160,565 14,211,824 275,322 329,565 25,677,079 13,208,350 1,809,711 372,977 3,568,929 87,252,219
2002 20,506,652 930,886 14,436,155 87,883 513,892 20,866,237 10,482,433 2,037,215
2001 9,791,711 660,864 16,244,583 117,098 735,366 16,441,056 8,301,559 911,597
5,551,837 75,413,190
3,334,411 56,538,245
2003 4,155,800 205,092 408,025
2002 4,470,763
2001 7,624,711
4,771,917
4,470,763
1,294 7,628,909
Osaka Securities Exchange(OSE), Japan Nikkei 225 I ndex Nikkei 300 I ndex Total Futures Nikkei 225 I ndex Nikkei 300 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME), Japan (formerly KRE and OTE) Rubber (RSS3) Rubber (TSR20) Rubber I ndex Aluminum Nickel Total Futures
3,387,170
Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), Japan Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Aluminum Gasoline Kerosene Crude Oil Gas Oil R u b b er Total Futures Gold Total Options
2005 17,958,240 817,624 8,573,313 323,347 219,694 17,448,561 7,295,741 1,981,389 6,312 7,156,225 61,780,446 33,843 33,843
Tokyo International Financial Futures Exchange (TIFFE), Japan 3-Month Euroyen TI BOR 5-Year Yen Swapnote 10-Year Yen Swapnote US Dollar /Japanese Yen Total Futures
58T
2005 10,977,591 42,500 36,443 600 11,057,134
2004 7,259,779 245,049 147,482 200 7,655,510
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE), Japan American Soybeans Non-GMO Soybeans Soybean Meal Arabic Coffee R ed B ea n s Corn Refined Sugar Robusta Coffee Raw Sugar Total Futures American Soybean Corn Raw Sugar Total Options
2005 2,050,803 10,964,812 9,503 5,591,946 659,002 5,165,693 2,860 662,994 465,625 25,573,238 16,678 7,467 2,956 27,101
2004 2,125,458 9,971,499 43,553 4,293,422 363,328 8,122,448 2,854 427,466 355,659 25,705,687 17,758 16,072 5,405 39,235
2003 1,745,697 6,735,421 52,039 5,019,572 555,190 5,984,743 2,842 617,327 371,896 21,084,727 17,548 12,214 5,979 35,741
2002 1,001,747 3,416,660 210,829 4,844,715 593,087 7,431,128 2,864 460,507 709,394 18,670,931 21,515 16,511 19,309 57,335
2001 1,740,613 3,342,542 268,513 4,465,044 1,093,922 10,341,897 2,874 420,873 1,031,530 22,707,808 19,040 52,012 37,544 108,596
2005 9,844,617 12,785,962 140 22,630,719 20,004 1,699,037 1,719,041
2004 8,025,268 10,305,318 741 18,331,928 17,643 1,262,994 1,280,637
2003 6,465,073 9,359,047 724 15,965,175 98,137 972,518 1,070,655
2002 6,356,612 7,131,178 466 13,630,046 93,249 1,036,395 1,129,644
2001 7,377,641 5,071,946 350 12,465,433 7,623 1,062,235 1,069,858
Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), Japan 10-Year Government Yen Bond TOPI X Stock I ndex Electric Appliance I ndex Total Futures TOPI X 10-Year Government Yen Bond Total Options
Yokohama Commodity Exchange (YCE), Japan (formerly Maebashi Dried Cocoon & Yokohama Raw Silk Ex.) Raw Silk I nternational Raw Silk Potato Vegetables Total Futures
Total Futures Percent Change Total Options Percent Change Total Futures and Options Percent Change
2005 113,938 1,641 95,392 173,098 384,069
2004 239,446 8,470 869,589 47,215 1,164,811
2003 919,049 11,581 894,160
2002 698,321 40,935 738,569
2001 602,727 241,004 399,351
1,852,158
1,507,210
1,312,871
2,305,012,488
2,167,519,755
1,927,572,094
1,473,598,607
1,173,033,623
6.34%
12.45%
30.81%
25.62%
23.10%
4,066,769,167
3,907,845,226
4,012,631,132
2,912,881,726
1,630,212,006
4.07%
-2.61%
37.75%
78.68%
125.33%
6,371,781,655
6,075,364,981
5,940,203,226
4,386,480,333
2,803,245,629
4.88%
2.28%
35.42%
56.48%
67.22%
59T
Conversion Factors Commonly Used Agricultural Weights and Measurements Bushel Weights: wheat and soybeans = 60 lbs. corn, sorghum and rye = 56 lbs. barley grain = 48 lbs. barley malt = 34 lbs. oats = 32 lbs.
1 tonne (metric ton) equals: 36.7437 bushels of wheat or soybeans 39.3679 bushels of corn, sorghum or rye 45.9296 bushels of barley grain 68.8944 bushels of oats 4.5929 cotton bales (the statistical bale used by the USDA and ICAC contains a net weight of 480 pounds of lint)
Bushels to tonnes: wheat and soybeans = bushels X 0.027216 barley grain = bushels X 0.021772 corn, sorghum and rye = bushels X 0.0254 oats = bushels X 0.014515
Area Measurements: 1 acre = 43,560 square feet = 0.040694 hectare 1 hectare = 2.4710 acres = 10,000 square meters 640 acres = 1 square mile = 259 hectares
1 tonne (metric ton) equals: 2204.622 lbs. 1,000 kilograms 22.046 hundredweight 10 quintals
Yields: wheat: bushels per acre X 0.6725 = quintals per hectare rye, corn: bushels per acre X 0.6277 = quintals per hectare barley grain: bushels per acre X 0.538 = quintals per hectare oats: bushels per acre X 0.3587 = quintals per hectare
Commonly Used Weights The troy, avoirdupois and apothecaries’ grains are identical in U.S. and British weight systems, equal to 0.0648 gram in the metric system. One avoirdupois ounce equals 437.5 grains. The troy and apothecaries’ ounces equal 480 grains, and their pounds contain 12 ounces. Troy weights and conversions: 100 kilograms = 1 quintal 24 grains = 1 pennyweight 20 pennyweights = 1 ounce 12 ounces = 1 pound 1 troy ounce = 31.103 grams 1 troy ounce = 0.0311033 kilogram 1 troy pound = 0.37224 kilogram 1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces 1 tonne = 32,151 troy ounces
Metric weights and conversions: 1,000 grams = 1 kilogram 1 tonne = 1,000 kilograms = 10 quintals 1 kilogram = 2.204622 lbs. 1 quintal = 220.462 lbs. 1 tonne = 2204.6 lbs. 1 tonne = 1.102 short tons 1 tonne = 0.9842 long ton U.S. dry volumes and conversions: 1 pint = 33.6 cubic inches = 0.5506 liter 2 pints = 1 quart = 1.1012 liters 8 quarts = 1 peck = 8.8098 liters 4 pecks = 1 bushel = 35.2391 liters 1 cubic foot = 28.3169 liters
Avoirdupois weights and conversions: 27 11/32 grains = 1 dram 16 drams = 1 ounce 16 ounces = 1 lb. 1 lb. = 7,000 grains 14 lbs. = 1 stone (British) U.S. liquid volumes and conversions: 100 lbs. = 1 hundredweight (U.S.) 1 ounce = 1.8047 cubic inches = 29.6 milliliters 112 lbs. = 8 stone = 1 hundredweight (British) 1 cup = 8 ounces = 0.24 liter = 237 milliliters 2,000 lbs. = 1 short ton (U.S. ton) 1 pint = 16 ounces = 0.48 liter = 473 milliliters 2,240 lbs. = 1 long ton (British ton) 1 quart = 2 pints = 0.946 liter = 946 milliliters 160 stone = 1 long ton 1 gallon = 4 quarts = 231 cubic inches = 3.785 liters 20 hundredweight = 1 ton 1 milliliter = 0.033815 fluid ounce 1 lb. = 0.4536 kilogram 1 liter = 1.0567 quarts = 1,000 milliliters 1 hundredweight (cwt.) = 45.359 kilograms 1 liter = 33.815 fluid ounces 1 short ton = 907.18 kilograms 1 imperial gallon = 277.42 cubic inches = 1.2 U.S. gal1 long ton = 1,016.05 kilograms lons = 4.546 liters
60T
ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS U.S. Crude Oil (average gravity) 1 U.S. barrel = 42 U.S. gallons 1 short ton = 6.65 barrels 1 tonne = 7.33 barrels
residual fuel oil lubricating oil grease white spirits paraffin oil paraffin wax petrolatum asphalt and road oil petroleum coke bitumen LPG
Barrels per tonne for various origins Abu Dhabi 7.624 Algeria 7.661 Angola 7.206 Australia 7.775 Bahrain 7.335 Brunei 7.334 Canada 7.428 Dubai 7.295 Ecuador 7.58 Gabon 7.245 Indonesia 7.348 Iran 7.37 Iraq 7.453 Kuwait 7.261 Libya 7.615 Mexico 7.104 Neutral Zone 6.825 Nigeria 7.41 Norway 7.444 Oman 7.39 Qatar 7.573 Romania 7.453 Saudi Arabia 7.338 Trinidad 6.989 Tunisia 7.709 United Arab Emirates 7.522 United Kingdom 7.279 United States 7.418 Former Soviet Union 7.35 Venezuela 7.005 Zaire 7.206
6.45 7 6.3 8.5 7.14 7.87 7.87 6.06 5.5 6.06 11.6
Approximate heat content of refined products: (Million Btu per barrel, 1 British thermal unit is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of 1 pound of water 1 degree F.) Petroleum Product Heat Content asphalt 6.636 aviation gasoline 5.048 butane 4.326 distillate fuel oil 5.825 ethane 3.082 isobutane 3.974 jet fuel, kerosene 5.67 jet fuel, naptha 5.355 kerosene 5.67 lubricants 6.065 motor gasoline 5.253 natural gasoline 4.62 pentanes plus 4.62 Petrochemical feedstocks: naptha less than 401*F 5.248 other oils equal to or greater than 401*F 5.825 still gas 6 petroleum coke 6.024 plant condensate 5.418 propane 3.836 residual fuel oil 6.287 special napthas 5.248 unfinished oils 5.825 unfractionated steam 5.418 waxes 5.537 Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Barrels per tonne of refined products: aviation gasoline 8.9 motor gasoline 8.5 kerosene 7.75 jet fuel 8 distillate, including diesel 7.46 (continued above)
Natural Gas Conversions Although there are approximately 1,031 Btu in a cubic foot of gas, for most applications, the following conversions are sufficient: Cubic Feet 1,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000
MMBtu (one thousand cubic feet) (one million cubic feet) (ten million cubic feet) (one billion cubic feet) (one trillion cubic feet)
= = = = =
1 Mcf 1 MMcf 10 MMcf 1 Bcf 1 Tcf
= = = = =
1 1,000 10,000 1,000,000 1,000,000,000
61T
CRB Futures Market Service CRB's "Futures Market Service" is a weekly publication designed to make you a more powerful trader through an understanding of the fundamental factors moving the commodity and financial futures markets. The CRB Futures Market Service has stood the test of time with its status as the industry's oldest and most respected fundamental newsletter. The first edition was published on February 3, 1934. Most traders make their trading decisions based on technical analysis and technical trading systems. However, combining both fundamentals and technicals gives you an even more powerful trading approach to the markets. Understanding the fundamentals helps you to gauge market direction, how far the market may move, and when the market may move. We help you to understand these factors through our fundamental commentary and our weekly commodity and financial calendars. We analyze factors such as Fed policy, inflation, interest rates, stock market earnings and valuation, the dollar, metal and petroleum fundamentals, crop reports and global crop conditions, and livestock and softs fundamentals. We also use the Commitment of Traders to analyze how the big funds are impacting the markets. Also included in the service is a weekly version of CRB's Electronic Futures Trend Analyzer, which is an automated trading system providing specific trade recommendations with exact market entry and exit points. For more information, visit www.crbtrader.com, or call 800.621.5271 Commodity Research Bureau • 330 South Wells Street, Suite 612 • Chicago IL, 60606 USA Phone: 312.554.8456 or 800.621.5271 • Fax: 312.939.4135 •
[email protected] • www.crbtrader.com
Aluminum Aluminum (symbol Al) is a silvery, lightweight metal that is the most abundant metallic element in the earth’s crust. Aluminum was first isolated in 1825 by a Danish chemist, Hans Christian Oersted, using a chemical process involving a potassium amalgam. A German chemist, Friedrich Woehler, improved Oersted’s process by using metallic potassium in 1827. He was the first to show aluminum’s lightness. In France, Henri Sainte-Claire Deville isolated the metal by reducing aluminum chloride with sodium and established a large-scale experimental plant in 1854. He displayed pure aluminum at the Paris Exposition of 1855. In 1886, Charles Martin Hall in the US and Paul L.T. Heroult in France simultaneously discovered the first practical method for producing aluminum through electrolytic reduction, which is still the primary method of aluminum production today. By volume, aluminum weighs less than a third as much as steel. This high strength-to-weight ratio makes aluminum a good choice for construction of aircraft, railroad cars, and automobiles. Aluminum is used in cooking utensils and the pistons of internal-combustion engines because of its high heat conductivity. Aluminum foil, siding, and storm windows make excellent insulators. Because it absorbs relatively few neutrons, aluminum is used in low-temperature nuclear reactors. Aluminum is also useful in boat hulls and various marine devices due to its resistance to corrosion in salt water. Aluminum futures and options are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum futures are traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), the Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). The NYMEX aluminum futures contract calls for the delivery of 44,000 pounds of aluminum and the contract is priced in
World Production of Primary Aluminum Year
Prices – NYMEX aluminum futures prices showed overall strength in 2005. Except for a 3-month slump to about 77 cents per pound in mid-year, aluminum rallied from around 89 cents per pound at the beginning of 2005 to about 105 cents per pound by year-end. Aluminum at the end of 2005 was up 75% from the major low of about 60 cents posted at the end of 2001. Supply – World production of aluminum rose +6.8% yr/ yr in 2004, the latest reporting year, to a record high of 29.800 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of aluminum are China with 22% of world production in 2004, Russia (12%), Canada (9%), US (8%), and Australia (6%). US production of primary aluminum in 2005 (through October, annualized) fell -1.3% yr/yr to 2.483 million metric tons, which was only about one-half of the record high of 4.654 million metric tons produced in 1980. US production of aluminum from secondary sources in 2004 rose +7.4% yr/yr to 3.030 million metric tons. Demand – World consumption of aluminum in 2001, the latest reporting year for the series, fell -4.8% yr/yr to 23.613 million metric tons, which was moderately below the record high of 24.811 million metric tons consumed in 2000. US consumption of aluminum in 2004 rose +7.5% yr/yr to 6.590 million metric tons, up from 2003’s 11-year low of 6.130. Trade – US exports in 2004 rose +18.2% yr/yr to a new record high of 1.820 million metric tons. US imports of aluminum in 2003 rose +14.3% yr/yr to a record high of 4.720 million metric tons. The US relied on imports for 47% of its consumption in 2005.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
Norway
Russia
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
Venezuela
World Total
1,372 1,495 1,627 1,718 1,769 1,797 1,836 1,857 1,900
1,195 1,200 1,208 1,250 1,277 1,140 1,318 1,381 1,457
2,283 2,327 2,374 2,390 2,373 2,583 2,709 2,792 2,592
1,770 1,960 2,340 2,530 2,800 3,250 4,300 5,450 6,670
380 399 424 455 441 462 463 443 450
576 572 612 634 644 652 653 661 675
863 919 996 1,020 1,026 1,068 1,096 1,192 1,322
2,874 2,906 3,005 3,146 3,245 3,300 3,347 3,478 3,593
362 360 362 364 366 376 380 389 398
240 248 258 272 305 341 344 343 360
3,577 3,603 3,713 3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707 2,703 2,516
629 634 585 570 571 571 605 601 624
20,800 21,700 22,600 23,600 24,300 24,300 26,100 27,900 29,800
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
terms of cents per pound.
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Production of Primary Aluminum (Domestic and Foreign Ores) in the U.S.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
301 305 309 315 329 256 210 242 216 209
283 277 280 287 308 220 197 220 202 191
303 307 312 320 327 232 220 238 217 214
293 295 305 309 316 225 216 225 209 211
303 304 316 319 327 229 228 228 217 214
293 296 307 310 299 215 225 221 204 206
301 305 319 319 296 214 238 226 209 210
302 304 318 324 296 212 237 225 210 208
292 294 309 310 291 206 227 217 203 199
304 307 315 323 300 214 235 224 211 207
295 298 307 316 289 208 232 215 207 204
305 310 317 328 291 205 241 221 211 208
3,577 3,603 3,713 3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707 2,702 2,516 2,481
1
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
ALUMINUM
Cents Per Pound ----- Pig Ingots, New York (Jan. 1910 - Nov. 1986) Pig Ingots, Midwest ( Dec. 1986 - date) ----- Scrap Clippings, New York (Jan. 1929 - Dec. 1984) Scrap Clippings, Midwest (Jan. 1985 - date) - - - Scrap, Old Sheet, Cast, New York (Jan. 1929 - Dec. 1984) Scrap, Old Sheet, Cast, Midwest (Jan. 1985 - date)
Salient Statistics of Aluminum in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons ---------------------------------- Net Shipments5 by Producers ---------------------------------
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
Net Import ----------- Wrought Products ----------- ----------------- Castings ----------------Reliance Total P r o d u c t i o n R e c o v e r y f r o m Plate, Rolled as a % of ExPermaPrimary Apparent All Net Apparent Secondtruded nent Ship- ------ Scrap -----Con- Sheet, Structural ShipFoil Shapes3 Shapes4 Consumption Primary ary OLd New sumption All Mold Die Sand All ments ments
23 22 23 25 30 33 35 39 41 41
3,375 3,577 3,603 3,713 3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707 2,703 2,516
3,189 8,258 3,310 8,330 3,550 8,880 3,440 9,260 3,700 9,840 3,450 9,830 2,970 9,310 2,930 9,640 2,820 9,760 3,030 10,400
1,510 1,570 1,530 1,500 1,570 1,370 1,210 1,170 1,070 1,160
1,684 1,730 2,020 1,950 2,120 2,080 1,760 1,750 1,750 1,870
6,295 6,610 6,720 7,090 7,770 7,530 6,230 6,320 6,130 6,590
4,900 4,430 4,710 4,760 5,000 4,840 4,370 4,450 4,400 4,780
526 350 315 551 549 592 512 559 532 585
1,540 1,540 1,610 1,560 1,640 1,640 1,550 1,550 1,520 1,660
7,130 6,480 6,800 7,040 7,360 7,240 6,580 6,710 6,610 7,200
442 473 468 511 484 549 484 693 724 766
627 612 670 584 1,020 991 873 1,280 1,210 1,290
207 180 153 134 158 152 251 279 287 222
1,440 1,390 1,410 1,350 1,790 1,850 1,760 2,450 2,410 2,440
8,580 7,860 8,210 8,390 9,150 9,080 8,340 9,160 9,030 9,630
Preliminary. 2 To domestic industry. 3 Also rod, bar & wire. 4 Also rod, bar, tube, blooms & tubing. 5 Consists of total shipments less shipments to other mills for further fabrication. NA = Not available. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Supply and Distribution of Aluminum in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1
2
Apparent Consumption
6,612 6,879 6,295 6,610 6,720 7,090
Preliminary.
2
---- Production ---From Primary Old Scrap
3,695 3,299 3,375 3,577 3,603 3,713 Estimate.
1,632 1,503 1,505 1,570 1,530 1,500 3
Inventories -- December 31 -GovernImports Exports Private ment2
2,545 3,382 2,975 2,810 3,080 3,550
1,207 1,365 1,610 1,500 1,570 1,590
National Defense Stockpile.
2,209 2,149 2,099 1,860 1,860 1,930 4
57 57 57 57 4
----
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Inventories Apparent ---- Production ----- December 31 -ConsumpFrom Governtion Primary Old Scrap Imports Exports Private Year ment2
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
Less than 1/2 unit.
7,770 7,530 6,230 6,320 6,130 6,590
3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707 2,703 2,516
1,570 1,370 1,210 1,170 1,070 1,160
4,000 3,910 3,740 4,060 4,130 4,720
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1,650 1,760 1,590 1,590 1,540 1,820
1,870 1,550 1,300 1,320 1,400 1,470
-------------------
ALUMINUM Aluminum Products Distribution of End-Use Shipments in the United States Year
Building & Construction
Consumer Durables
Containers & Packaging
Electrical
1,220 1,330 1,320 1,390 1,470 1,450 1,500 1,560 1,560 1,680
621 655 694 725 760 767 681 722 689 730
2,310 2,180 2,220 2,270 2,320 2,260 2,250 2,260 2,240 2,310
657 671 708 714 739 771 686 677 653 723
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 1
Preliminary.
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 1
Exports
Transportaion
Other
Total
1,310 1,290 1,360 1,260 1,330 1,280 902 1,070 905 929
570 569 626 629 661 679 641 616 659 730
2,610 2,640 2,990 3,250 3,600 3,600 3,190 3,410 3,540 3,860
279 291 318 273 293 293 367 390 415 416
9,570 9,610 10,200 10,500 11,200 11,100 10,200 10,700 10,700 11,400
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Wo rld C o n su mp tio n o f P rimary Alu min u m Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Machinery & Equipment
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
Canada
Chi na
France
Germany
India
Italy
Japan
Rep. of Korea
Russia
Uni ted Ki ngdom
Uni ted States
World Total
377.1 378.9 414.1 500.6 497.0 478.6 521.4 463.1 513.8 550.8
420.4 492.5 559.0 611.9 619.9 628.2 720.6 777.2 798.7 759.6
1,253.8 1,339.9 1,500.1 1,941.6 2,135.3 2,260.3 2,425.4 2,925.9 3,499.1 3,545.4
730.5 667.2 736.3 743.8 671.7 724.2 733.8 774.2 780.4 772.9
1,457.1 1,150.7 1,370.3 1,491.3 1,355.4 1,558.4 1,519.0 1,438.6 1,490.3 1,590.9
414.3 475.3 475.0 581.0 584.8 553.4 566.5 569.5 602.4 558.0
660.0 554.0 660.0 665.4 585.1 671.0 675.4 735.3 780.3 770.4
2,271.6 2,138.3 2,344.8 2,335.6 2,392.6 2,434.3 2,082.0 2,112.3 2,224.9 2,014.0
397.0 524.8 603.9 675.4 674.3 666.3 505.7 814.0 822.6 849.6
1,242.0 657.0 470.0 476.0 443.8 469.2 489.2 562.8 748.4 786.2
550.0 540.0 570.0 620.0 571.0 583.0 579.0 496.8 575.5 433.3
4,616.9 4,877.1 5,407.1 5,054.8 5,348.0 5,390.0 5,813.6 6,203.3 6,079.5 5,117.0
18,529.5 18,122.6 19,670.8 20,480.9 20,596.4 21,721.8 21,797.2 23,323.0 24,811.4 23,612.8
P reliminary.
S ource: American Met al Market (AMM)
Salient Statistics of Recycling Aluminum in the United States Year
New Old Recycled Apparent Scrap1 Scrap2 Metal3 Supply -------------------- In Thousands of Metric Tons -------------------
Percent Recycled
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
40 40 41 38 37 36 37 36 36 36
1,680 1,730 2,020 1,950 2,120 2,080 1,760 1,750 1,750 1,870
1,510 1,570 1,530 1,500 1,570 1,370 1,210 1,170 1,070 1,160
Scrap that results from the manufacturing process. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
2
3,190 3,310 3,550 3,440 3,700 3,450 2,970 2,930 2,820 3,030
7,980 8,340 8,740 9,040 9,890 9,610 7,990 8,070 7,880 8,460
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
3,190 2,730 3,430 2,810 3,070 3,420 2,670 2,510 2,620 3,640
Scrap that results from consumer products.
Producer Prices for Aluminum Used Beverage Can Scrap Year
New Old Recycled Apparent Scrap1 Scrap2 Metal3 Supply -------------------- Value in Millions of Dollars -------------------
3
2,850 2,480 2,590 2,160 2,280 2,260 1,830 1,680 1,610 2,140
6,040 5,200 6,020 4,970 5,350 5,670 4,500 4,190 4,230 5,600
15,100 13,100 14,800 13,100 14,300 15,800 12,100 11,500 11,800 15,700
Metal recovered from new plus old scrap.
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
57.73 56.98 54.53 44.50 58.58 54.26 44.50 50.50 57.44 64.80
56.00 59.00 57.00 44.50 62.90 55.50 44.66 52.30 61.64 65.79
56.24 59.00 57.00 44.20 61.50 55.45 47.21 52.45 61.65 71.91
58.90 58.27 52.95 45.68 56.85 54.50 49.41 49.43 63.00 71.40
59.00 58.05 49.85 47.45 54.50 54.23 48.68 50.17 57.85 64.75
49.70 58.05 47.09 46.50 54.50 50.79 48.50 49.75 60.00 62.23
47.50 58.32 45.50 48.40 56.50 46.93 46.89 49.22 62.23 60.05
49.25 59.60 44.50 49.00 57.00 45.50 45.06 49.83 60.57 62.96
50.20 59.50 46.21 49.00 57.00 45.50 46.36 47.43 59.48 60.40
48.50 59.13 44.50 53.79 56.20 44.63 47.07 50.17 62.07 61.76
49.03 59.00 44.50 55.50 53.50 44.50 49.76 52.00 61.45 65.25
53.50 57.12 46.14 57.64 53.50 44.50 50.29 53.73 63.81 72.90
52.96 58.50 49.15 48.84 56.88 49.71 47.37 50.58 60.93 65.35
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
3
ALUMINUM Average Price of Cast Aluminum Scrap (Crank Cases) in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
37.50 36.09 37.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 26.00 28.10 30.00 29.00
37.50 36.50 37.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 27.47 30.00 31.26 29.00
37.50 36.50 37.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 28.95 30.00 36.00 31.61
37.50 36.50 35.95 25.50 35.55 31.00 30.00 29.00 36.00 33.00
37.50 36.50 35.50 26.45 31.09 31.00 30.00 29.00 33.00 31.33
37.50 36.50 31.59 29.23 30.32 31.00 30.00 27.90 29.00 28.00
37.50 36.50 25.50 36.83 30.30 28.29 30.00 26.68 29.00 28.00
36.50 39.36 25.50 37.50 32.00 28.00 29.64 26.00 29.00 28.00
35.40 38.60 25.50 37.50 32.00 28.00 28.00 26.00 29.00 28.00
33.80 38.50 25.50 37.50 31.09 28.00 28.00 26.00 29.00 28.00
33.50 38.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 26.40 28.00 26.00 29.00 28.00
33.50 38.07 25.50 37.50 31.00 26.00 28.00 26.00 29.00 39.71
36.27 37.34 30.71 31.87 33.04 29.25 28.67 27.56 30.77 30.14
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Aluminum Exports of Crude Metal and Alloys from the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
23.1 31.0 21.2 18.6 18.7 19.6 17.1 14.3 18.2 26.5
27.9 25.5 21.4 26.7 27.2 16.1 15.2 14.8 20.8 23.4
31.2 22.5 21.8 23.9 30.2 18.9 15.6 14.5 24.3 24.3
34.3 33.0 17.4 22.7 21.9 14.7 16.4 16.9 25.2 27.0
46.2 24.1 22.6 25.2 24.4 16.8 19.4 17.0 25.1 28.9
54.3 34.9 21.8 27.7 22.4 15.6 18.3 17.8 27.6 29.6
36.3 23.9 20.9 23.7 20.5 12.4 15.0 16.5 23.7 25.9
33.7 33.2 21.5 27.5 24.2 14.5 15.5 20.4 23.0 33.1
30.2 34.4 28.0 26.1 20.5 12.6 17.5 18.7 28.3 27.2
40.3 26.5 23.9 31.4 20.7 18.9 19.8 22.9 26.9 29.5
33.2 33.0 20.4 30.3 20.7 16.7 19.4 20.4 28.0 29.6
26.2 30.0 24.7 34.8 21.6 15.1 16.4 19.7 27.4
416.9 352.0 265.6 318.6 273.0 191.9 205.6 213.9 298.5 332.7
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Aluminum General Imports of Crude Metal and Alloys into the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
158.0 145.0 220.0 191.0 246.0 193.0 272.0 215.0 211.0 334.0
150.0 147.0 204.0 200.0 213.0 200.0 205.0 246.0 288.0 289.0
148.0 209.0 202.0 240.0 206.0 237.0 223.0 350.0 248.0 262.0
188.0 196.0 200.0 311.0 211.0 197.0 221.0 202.0 254.0 372.0
176.0 198.0 189.0 281.0 233.0 209.0 221.0 265.0 282.0 372.0
169.0 167.0 243.0 258.0 234.0 179.0 263.0 261.0 309.0 324.0
139.0 157.0 170.0 213.0 250.0 201.0 228.0 233.0 297.0 324.0
149.0 152.0 204.0 219.0 206.0 198.0 279.0 194.0 225.0 264.0
136.0 150.0 198.0 178.0 189.0 252.0 235.0 215.0 279.0 282.0
170.0 175.0 198.0 202.0 186.0 220.0 196.0 210.0 286.0 298.0
147.0 146.0 189.0 178.0 181.0 248.0 264.0 233.0 272.0 240.0
180.0 222.0 177.0 180.0 137.0 227.0 186.0 243.0 294.0
1,910.0 2,060.0 2,394.0 2,651.0 2,490.0 2,561.0 2,793.0 2,867.0 3,245.0 3,666.5
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Open Interest of Aluminum Futures in New York Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Metric Tons
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
---794 2,446 3,277 9,573 8,815 8,183
---580 3,173 2,744 9,163 7,384 8,487
---254 3,450 2,738 6,960 9,666 7,464
---326 3,529 2,250 7,190 10,575 6,612
1,032 965 3,269 2,397 7,686 10,363 5,654
1,461 2,035 3,724 2,902 8,529 10,370 5,061
1,875 3,938 3,891 3,903 8,402 9,626 4,359
1,984 4,803 3,459 4,618 8,445 10,287 3,223
1,767 4,580 2,753 4,643 7,655 10,292 3,225
1,244 4,598 3,728 5,139 7,283 10,035 2,676
625 3,587 3,644 8,057 8,434 9,706 2,232
615 2,046 3,276 10,479 9,427 8,879 1,670
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX Division
Volume of Trading of Aluminum Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
---1,224 7,361 2,774 12,565 9,425 5,294
---2,394 1,694 4,635 9,625 9,621 2,829
---1,664 4,410 4,924 8,163 9,548 3,244
---1,901 2,822 2,593 5,440 9,770 2,627
6,179 3,859 2,853 5,388 10,567 5,438 2,613
5,875 3,566 4,634 5,389 8,463 5,453 1,832
5,275 6,295 4,404 8,953 11,797 5,280 1,247
3,373 3,767 3,794 4,194 9,451 2,063 902
3,114 5,993 1,428 2,571 5,119 5,533 1,625
2,801 6,365 2,887 7,328 6,222 4,822 623
639 5,055 4,251 16,185 8,536 2,525 3,135
722 4,016 2,551 9,066 11,542 2,691 2,520
27,978 46,099 43,089 74,000 107,490 72,169 28,491
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX Division
4
Antimony rose by +0.9% to 113,600 metric tons. China accounted for 89% of world antimony production in 2004, down from 91% in 2002. After China, the only significant producers are South Africa (4.7% of world production) and Bolivia (2.7%). China’s production level has held steady at about 100,000 metric tons per year for the last three years so the slight increase in 2004 came from Bolivia and Canada. US secondary production of antimony in 2004 rose by +12.7% yr/yr to 6,310 metric tons from 5,600 metric tons in 2003.
Antimony (symbol Sb) is a lustrous, extremely brittle and hard crystalline semi-metal that is silvery white in its most common allotropic form. Antimony is a poor conductor of heat and electricity. In nature, antimony has a strong affinity for sulfur and for such metals as lead, silver, and copper. Antimony is primarily a byproduct of the mining, smelting and refining of lead, silver, and copper ores. There is no longer any mine production of antimony in the US. The most common use of antimony is in antimony trioxide, a chemical that is used as a flame retardant in textiles, plastics, adhesives and building materials. Antimony trioxide is also used in battery components, ceramics, bearings, chemicals, glass, and ammunition.
Demand – US industrial consumption of antimony in 2004 rose +21.3% to 11,200 metric tons from 9,230 metric tons in 2003. Of the consumption in the US in 2004, 51% was used for flame-retardants, 27% was used for metal products, and 22% was used for non-metal products.
Prices – Antimony prices in 2005 rallied sharply by 19% to an average of 155.81 cents per pound. That was a 10-year high. Antimony prices in 2005 were more than double the 32-year low of 66.05 cents posted as recently as 1999. Bullish factors included stronger US and global economic growth, the weak dollar, and tight supplies.
Trade –US imports of antimony ore in 2004 more than quadrupled. (Gross weight quadrupled to 1,820 metric tons, and antimony content quadrupled to 1,750 metric tons). Imports of antimony oxide in 2004 increased +8.8% to 28,300 metric tons from 26,000 metric tons in 2003. US exports of antimony oxide rose by +11.3% to 3,240 metric tons from 2,910 metric tons in 2003.
Supply – World mine production of antimony in 2004
World Mine Production of Antimony (Content of Ore) Year
2001 2002 20031 20042
Australia
Bolivia
Canada
China2
1,380 1,200 1,300 1,800
2,264 2,336 2,911 3,000
234 143 88 90
140,000 100,000 100,000 100,000
Guatemala
Kyrgyzstan
In Metric Tons Mexico3
150 150 40 20
Peru4
Russia
South Africa
Thailand
Turkey
World Total
274 356 356 356
4,500 NA NA NA
4,927 5,746 5,310 5,300
18 1 38 40
330 250 650 500
157,000 113,000 112,000 113,000
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes antimony content of miscellaneous smelter products. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Salient Statistics of Antimony in the United States
Year
Avg. Price cents/lb. CIF U.S. Ports
2001 2002 20031 20042
----------- Production3 -----------
4
In Metric Tons
-- Imports for Consumption ------------ Ore ---------
-------------- Industry Stocks, December 313 --------------
------ Primary2 ------ Secondary (Alloys)2 Mine Smelter
Gross Weight
Antimony Content
Oxide (Gross Weight)
Exports (Oxide)
Metallic
Oxide
Sulfide
Other
Total4
9,080 W W W
2,610 1,320 428 1,820
2,290 1,310 412 1,750
27,700 27,900 26,000 28,300
5,880 3,260 2,910 3,240
645 729 578 463
4,090 4,080 3,540 2,310
W W W W
256 254 2,200 16
4,990 5,060 6,320 2,790
64.7 88.4 107.5 130.3
5,380 5,350 5,600 6,310
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Antimony content. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
4
I ncluding primary antimony residues & slag.
Industrial Consumption of Primary Antimony in the United States ---------------------------------- Metal Products ----------------------------------
Year
Ammu- Antimonial nition Lead
2001 2002 2003 20041 1
W W W W
Preliminary.
2
1,060 887 910 1,200
Sheet & P i pe
Bearing Metal & Bearings
Solder
Total All Metal Products
W W W W
52 42 43 36
78 89 85 85
2,800 2,760 2,410 3,010
Estimated coverage based on 77% of the industry.
Average Price of Antimony1 in the United States Year
2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Recoverable.
W = Withheld proprietary data.
In Metric Tons (Antimony Content) ----------------------- Non-Metal Products -----------------------
Flame ----- Retardents ----- Ceramics Plastics Total & Glass Pigments
6,210 4,930 3,680 4,690
7,570 6,310 4,720 5,740
518 505 487 524
W=Withheld proprietary data.
653 565 597 535
Plastics
Total
Grand Total
1,050 837 532 W
2,760 2,460 2,100 2,470
13,100 11,500 9,230 11,200
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
69.50 121.53 110.10 138.35
69.50 109.15 122.47 138.35
69.50 118.48 132.83 146.63
69.50 119.49 133.81 147.42
64.22 119.77 133.81 147.42
65.13 119.07 126.23 148.66
73.09 107.86 125.87 156.49
86.97 105.01 133.81 157.48
113.24 105.01 138.35 168.96
149.59 105.01 138.35 174.63
141.91 102.76 138.35 174.63
135.25 97.52 138.35 170.72
92.28 110.89 131.03 155.81
Prices are for antimony metal (99.65%) merchants, minimum 18-ton containers, c.i.f. U.S. Ports.
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
5
Apples The apple tree is the common name of trees from the rose family, Rosaceae, and the fruit that comes from them. The apple tree is a deciduous plant and grows mainly in the temperate areas of the world. The apple tree is believed to have originated in the Caspian and Black Sea area. Apples were the favorite fruit of the ancient Greeks and Romans. The early settlers brought apple seeds with them and introduced them to America. John Champman, also known as Johnny Appleseed, was responsible for extensive planting of apple trees in the Midwestern United States. Prices – The average monthly price of apples received by growers in the US fell by -23.1% yr/yr to 21.6 cents per pound in 2005.
Supply – World apple production in the 2004-5 marketing year fell –12.9% yr/yr to 38.981 million metric tons, which was a 7-year low. The world’s largest apple producers in 2004-05 were the US (with 11% of world production), Turkey (6%), Italy (5%), and Germany (5%). US apple production in 2004-05 rose +9.8% yr/yr to 4.290 million metric tons, recovering further from the 2-decade low of 3.866 million metric tons posted in 2002-03. Demand – The utilization breakdown of the 2003 apple crop showed that 63% of apples were for fresh consumption, 18% for juice and cider, 14% for canning, 3% for frozen apples, and 2% for dried apples. US per capita apple consumption in 2000 was 16.5 pounds.
World Production of Apples, Fresh (Dessert & Cooking) Argentina
Year
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
1,331 900 1,000 900 1,300
Preliminary.
2
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Canada
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Ja p a n
532 467 402 379 370 360
2,300 2,055 2,060 2,080
2,631 1,522 1,563 1,518 1,945 1,415
700 605 540 500 666 450
2,267 2,220 2,206 1,878 2,110 2,159
800 931 926 842 755 870
Estimate.
Netherlands
South Africa
500 500 370 385
668 591 682 725 706
Spain
Turkey
United States
World Total
699 962 651 791 577 720
2,400 2,450 2,200 2,600 2,100 2,500
4,801 4,274 3,866 3,988 4,726 4,254
47,935 43,691 41,588 43,219 44,253 37,678
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Apples2 in the United States ------ Foreign Trade4 -------
--------------- Utiliz ation of Quantities Sold ----------------- Production -- - Grow ers Prices -
Total
Fresh Utilized cents/lb.
Processing $/ton
--------------------- Processed --------------------5
Fresh Canned
Dried Frozen
Juice & Cider Other3
---------------------------------------- Millions of Pounds ----------------------------------------
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
10,632 10,447 10,581 10,320 9,423 9,209 8,524 8,374 8,793 8,703 10,420 10,331
21.3 17.8 22.9 25.8 29.4 21.7
128.0 101.0 108.0 130.0 131.0 107.0
5,996 6,266 5,468 5,366 5,462 6,562
1,319 1,184 1,257 1,079 1,236 1,238
263 248 221 208 182 202
271 196 249 192 283 256
2,473 2,334 1,945 1,479 1,435 1,935
126 93 71 51 106 91
Imports Farm Fresh Value Exports Dried5 & Dried5 Million Fresh ------ Metric Tons -----$
15.0 12.8 15.8 18.9 20.9 15.9
Preliminary. 2 Commercial crop. 3 Mostly crushed for vinegar, jam, etc. 4 Year beginning July. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
---- Domestic ----
Avg. Farm Price cents /lb.
5
1,563.6 1,320.8 1,453.1 1,572.2 1,817.2 1,648.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
195.3 180.6 193.9 231.5 186.6 207.4
18.5 17.5 15.6 16.0 16.9 18.6
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
21.8 15.8 22.1 25.8 30.4 21.6
20.3 15.2 21.6 24.6 30.0 20.3
19.8 14.6 22.0 22.6 30.4 18.6
19.3 15.7 21.8 23.4 29.8 17.0
17.8 15.2 21.5 21.8 29.6 17.2
16.1 14.9 22.0 22.4 30.1 16.2
16.2 15.2 20.6 20.8 30.0 15.3
19.5 17.3 24.5 34.6 26.8 20.2
23.3 21.2 30.0 27.1 26.8 28.8
21.8 24.8 30.1 27.9 26.1 28.6
18.5 23.5 26.8 29.7 24.5 28.2
18.1 23.1 26.3 27.9 22.2 26.5
19.4 18.0 24.1 25.7 28.1 21.5
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Cents Per Pound ----- Average Received by Growers, US (Jan. 1947 - date)
6
21.5 33.3 21.2 26.3 33.0
Fresh weight basis.
Price of Apples Received by Grow ers (for Fresh Use) in the United States Year
571.9 743.6 593.0 522.5 528.3 474.5
Fresh P er Capita Consumption L b s.
Arsenic materials. Since roughly 75% of US arsenic production used to be used for wood preservative treatments, the demand for arsenic was closely tied to new home construction, home renovation, and deck construction. However, future demand for arsenic is questionable given its toxicity and the possibility of tighter environmental regulations in the future. In fact, in 2004 the percent of arsenic used for wood preservative treatments was down to 65%.
Arsenic (symbol As) is a silver-gray, extremely poisonous, semi-metallic element. Arsenic, which is odorless and flavorless, has been known since ancient times, but it wasn’t until the Middle Ages that its poisonous characteristics first became known. Metallic arsenic was first produced in the 17th century by heating arsenic with potash and soap. Arsenic is rarely found in nature in its elemental form and is generally recovered as a by-product of ore processing. Recently, small doses of arsenic have been found to put some forms of cancer into remission. It can also help thin blood. Homoeopathists have successfully used undetectable amounts of arsenic to cure stomach cramps. The US does not produce any arsenic and instead imports all its consumption needs for arsenic metals and compounds. More than 95 percent of the arsenic consumed in the US is in compound form, mostly as arsenic trioxide, which in turn is converted into arsenic acid. Production of chromated copper arsenate, a wood preservative, accounts for about 90% of the domestic consumption of arsenic trioxide. Three companies in the US manufacture chromate copper arsenate. Another company used arsenic acid to produce an arsenical herbicide. Arsenic metal is used to produce nonferrous alloys, primarily for lead-acid batteries. One area where there is increased consumption of arsenic is in the semiconductor industry. Very high-purity arsenic is used in the production of gallium arsenide. High speed and high frequency integrated circuits that use gallium arsenide have better signal reception and lower power consumption. An estimated 30 metric tons per year of highpurity arsenic is used in the production of semiconductor
Supply –World production of white arsenic (arsenic trioxide) in 2004 fell by -16.0% to 49,500 metric tons from last year’s level of 58,900 metric tons. The world’s largest producer by far is China with 81% of world production, followed by Chile with 16% of world production, Peru with 7%, Mexico with 4%, and Russia with 3%. China’s production of arsenic has been fairly constant at about 40,000 metric tons in each of the last six consecutive years. US supply of arsenic in 2004 fell sharply by -68% to a 30-year low of 7,022 metric tons from last year’s level of 21,790 metric tons. Demand – US demand for arsenic in 2004 fell by -68% to a record low of 6,800 metric tons from last year’s level of 21,600 metric tons. Of that demand, 65% was for wood preservatives, 12% was for agricultural chemicals, 10% was for glass, 4% was for non-ferrous alloys and electric usage, and 5% was for other uses. Trade – US imports of trioxide arsenic in 2004 fell by – 70.4% to 8,090 metric tons from 27,300 metric tons in 2003. US exports of trioxide arsenic were negligible at 220 metric tons, but still up +27% from the 173 metric tons in 2003.
World Production of White Arsenic (Arsenic Trioxide) Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1 5
In Metric Tons
Belgium
Bolivia
Canada4
Chile
China
France
Germany
Mexico
Namibia3
Peru
Phillippines
Russia5
World Total
2,000 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
362 255 282 284 437 318 846 237 276 300
250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
4,076 8,000 8,350 8,400 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
21,000 15,000 15,000 15,500 16,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000
5,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
250 250 250 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
3,620 2,942 2,999 2,573 2,419 2,522 2,381 1,946 1,729 1,800
1,661 1,559 1,297 175 -------------------
285 111 637 624 1,611 2,495 2,800 2,970 3,000 3,500
-------------------------------
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
47,000 42,900 42,000 40,300 41,800 62,800 59,500 59,100 58,900 49,500
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Output of Tsumeb Corp. Ltd. only. Formerly part of the U.S.S.R.; not reported separately until 1992.
4 I ncludes low-grade dusts that were exported to the U.S. for further refining. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Arsenic in the United States
In Metric Tons (Arsenic Content)
Year
------------------ Supply ------------------ -- Distribution -- ------------------- Estimated Demand Pattern ------------------- -- Average Price -NonTrioxide Metal Wood Ferrous AgriculIndustry ---- Imports ---- Industry Mexican Chinese Com- Stocks Apparent Stocks Imports Preserv- Alloys & tural Metal pounds Jan. 1 Total Demand Dec.31 Chemicals Total -- Cents/Pound -- Trioxide3 Exports atives Electric Other Glass
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
557 252 909 997 1,300 830 1,030 879 990 872
1
Preliminary.
2
22,100 21,200 22,800 29,300 22,100 23,600 23,900 18,800 20,800 6,150
---- 22,700 ---- 21,400 ---- 23,700 ---- 30,300 ---- 23,400 ---- 24,430 ---- 24,930 ---- 19,679 ---- 21,790 ---- 7,022
Estimate.
3
22,300 21,400 23,700 30,100 22,000 24,400 24,900 19,600 21,600 6,800
For Consumption.
-------------------------------
1,000 950 1,400 1,500 1,100 ----------------
700 700 700 900 600 700 750 700 660 650
19,600 19,200 20,000 26,500 19,500 21,800 21,900 17,300 19,200 4,450
600 250 900 1,200 850 700 1,000 650 660 650
400 300 300 300 200 250 250 200 200 200
22,300 21,400 23,700 30,100 22,000 24,400 24,900 19,600 21,600 6,800
33 33 31 30 -------------------
66 40 32 40 -------------------
29,000 430 28,000 36 30,000 61 38,600 177 29,100 1,350 31,100 41 31,500 57 24,700 100 27,300 173 8,090 220
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
7
Barley Barley is the common name for the genus of cereal grass and is native to Asia and Ethiopia. Barley is an ancient crop and was grown by the Egyptians, Greek, Romans and Chinese. Barley is now the world’s fourth largest grain crop, after wheat, rice, and corn. Barley is planted in the spring in most of Europe, Canada and the United States. The U.S. barley crop year begins June 1. It is planted in the autumn in parts of California, Arizona and along the Mediterranean Sea. Barley is hardy and drought resistant and can be grown on marginal cropland. Salt-resistant strains are being developed for use in coastal regions. Barley grain, along with hay, straw, and several by-products are used for animal feed. Barley is used for malt beverages and in cooking. Barley, like other cereals, contains a large proportion of carbohydrate (67%) and protein (12.8%). Barley futures are traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE), the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) and the Budapest Commodity Exchange. Prices – The monthly average price for all barley received by US farmers in the 2005-06 marketing year (through December 2005) rose by +0.8% yr/yr to $2.49 per bushel. Supply – World barley production in the 2005-06 marketing year fell by –12.7% to a 5-year low of 133.566 million metric tons. The world’s largest barley crop of 179.162 million metric tons occurred in 1990-01. The world’s largest barley producers are the European Union with 39.3% of world production in 2005-06, Russia (11.7%), Canada (9.2%),
World Barley Supply and Demand
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
3,967 2,838 4,241 2,870 3,924 4,590 2,159 6,104 4,481 5,500
Trade – World exports of barley in 2005-06 fell by – 3.9% yr/yr to 16.200 million metric tons, but still better than the 7-year low of 15.311 million metric tons seen in 200304. The largest world exporters of barley in 2004-05 were Australia with 26% of world exports, the European Union with 20%, Canada with 12%, and the US with only 2%. The single largest importer of barley is Saudi Arabia with 6.000 million metric tons of imports in 2005-06.
2
Estimate.
23,012 12,826 17,785 18,780 16,910 17,589 16,751 14,824 17,314 16,950
5,887 4,026 5,814 5,900 5,100 6,000 7,502 5,900 6,500 6,500
737 483 809 110 537 489 39 305 345
22,342 12,826 17,785 18,780 16,910 17,106 16,464 14,638 17,087 16,790
16,435 16,494 12,900 11,441 12,700 14,250 15,500 18,600 16,500 16,100
8,459 6,879 7,207 6,752 6,407 5,661 5,179 4,990 5,672 4,572
149,480 146,037 138,916 132,559 134,173 135,130 136,048 144,988 143,563 141,026
2,919 2,383 23,761 2,459 2,596 32,137 2,737 3,084 28,850 2,838 2,424 24,026 2,516 2,314 22,755 2,047 2,006 28,400 1,475 1,510 26,594 2,102 2,619 22,034 3,489 2,796 32,478 2,919 2,402 24,771
Source: Foreign Agricutural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia
Belarus
Canada
China
European Union
India
Iran
Kazakstan
Russia
Turkey
Ukraine
United States
World Total
6,696 6,482 5,987 5,032 6,743 8,280 3,865 10,387 7,702 8,500
2,194 2,359 1,623 1,181 1,378 1,700 1,681 1,800 2,000 1,500
15,562 13,527 12,709 13,196 13,172 10,846 7,489 12,328 13,186 12,500
4,000 4,000 2,656 2,970 2,646 2,893 3,322 2,717 2,900 2,800
51,716 52,608 51,907 57,538 58,816 56,962 56,509 54,826 61,753 53,127
1,510 1,462 1,680 1,470 1,447 1,432 1,500 1,410 1,460 1,460
2,700 2,500 2,300 1,600 1,400 1,500 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
2,700 2,670 1,100 2,250 1,675 2,200 2,200 2,100 1,500 1,500
15,900 20,800 9,800 10,600 14,100 19,500 18,700 18,000 17,200 15,800
7,200 7,300 7,500 6,600 7,400 6,900 7,200 6,900 7,400 7,200
5,725 7,407 5,870 6,425 6,872 10,186 10,364 6,850 11,100 9,000
8,544 7,835 7,655 5,922 6,919 5,407 4,940 6,059 6,091 4,613
143,541 154,491 135,659 127,509 132,884 141,498 133,877 141,976 153,360 135,219
Year
8
Demand – U.S. total barley disappearance in 2005-06 fell –12.0% yr/yr to 250.0 million bushels, which is down from last year’s 4-year high of 284 million bushels. About 65% of barley is used for food and alcoholic beverages, 29% for animal feed, and 4% for seed, according the latest available figures from 2003-04.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
3,442 6,183 21,798 1,214 1,897 2,990 11,755 1,071 1,185 8,894 17,235 550 1,806 10,443 17,927 853 1,956 6,275 15,842 1,068 1,126 3,236 17,072 517 304 6,307 16,199 552 1,937 984 14,440 384 1,476 3,881 16,564 750 2,000 3,300 16,650 300
World Production of Barley
1
US barley production in the 2005-06 marketing year fell by -24.1% yr/yr to 212.196 million bushels. That was only about 35% of the record US barley crop of 608.532 million bushels seen in 1986-87. US farmers harvested 3.269 million acres of barley in 2005-06, which was the lowest acreage since the late 1800s (specifically, 1894-95). Furthermore, the barley yield in 2005-06 fell to 64.8 bushels per acre from last year’s record high of 69.4. Ending stocks for the 200506 marketing year fell to 101 million bushels which is –21.1% below last year’s 12-year high of 128.0 million bushels.
---------------------------------- Exports ---------------------------------- ------------- Imports ------------- ------------- Utiliz ation ------------- -------- Ending Stocks -------Total UtilTotal AusCanTotal Total Saudi UnacTotal ization Canada U.S. Stocks tralia ada EC-15 Non-US U.S. Exports Arabia ounted Imports Russia U.S.
Preliminary.
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
Ukraine (6.7%), Australia (6.3%), Turkey (5.3%), and the US (3.4%).
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
BARLEY Barley Acreage and Prices in the United States ---------------------- Seasonal Prices ---------------------- ------ Government Price Support Operations -----Year Beginning June 1
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
Acreage ----- 1,000 Acres ----Planted
Harvested for Grain
Yield Per Harvested Acre -- Bushels --
6,337 5,194 5,864 4,967 5,008 5,348 4,527 3,875
5,864 4,734 5,213 4,289 4,123 4,727 4,021 3,269
60.0 59.2 61.1 58.2 55.0 58.9 69.6 64.8
National Portland Average No. 2 Target Western Loan Rate All F eed4 Price Malting4 --------------------------------------- Dollars per Bushel ------------------------------------------------ Received by Farmers3 ---------
1.98 2.13 2.11 2.18 2.68 2.81 2.46 2.49
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Excludes support payments. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
4
1.55 1.65 1.74 1.74 2.16 2.27 1.76 1.87
2.33 2.50 2.36 2.58 2.96 3.07 2.79 2.77
1.96 2.11 2.25 2.31 2.71 2.71 2.38
Duluth through May 1998.
Salient Statistics of Barley in the United States
1.56 1.59 1.62 1.65 1.88 1.88 1.85
NA NA NA NA 2.21 2.21 2.21
Put Under Support (mil. Bu.)
% of Production
25.9 13.6 16.0 10.6 10.4 17.9
7.4 4.9 5.0 4.2 4.6 6.4
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Millions of Bushels
------------------------------------ Disappearance ----------------------------------Year Beginning June 1
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
-------------------- Domestic Use -------------------F ood & -------------------- Supply -------------------Beginning ProducTotal F eed & Acohol Stocks tion Imports Supply Beverages Seed Residual Total
119.2 141.7 111.0 106.0 92.0 69.0 120.0 128.0
352.1 280.3 318.7 249.4 226.6 278.3 279.7 211.9
29.8 25.0 29.0 24.0 18.0 21.0 12.0 5.0
501.2 448.5 459.0 379.0 337.0 368.0 412.0 345.0
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Uncommitted inventory. Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
161.4 162.5 164.0 164.0 164.0 163.0 145.0 140.0 4
8.6 9.5 8.0 8.0 9.0 7.0 7.0 NA
161.1 136.0 122.0 88.0 84.0 72.0 116.0 70.0
331.1 308.0 294.0 260.0 257.0 242.0 268.0 210.0
Total D i sa p Exports pearance
28.5 30.0 58.0 26.0 30.0 19.0 23.0 30.0
359.5 338.0 353.0 286.0 268.0 248.0 284.0 240.0
I ncludes quantity under loan & farmer-owned reserve.
---------- Ending Stocks --------Gov't Privately Total Owned3 Owned4 Stocks
0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
141.4 111.0 106.0 92.0 69.0 120.0 128.0 105.0
141.7 111.0 106.0 92.0 69.0 120.0 128.0 105.0
Source: Economic Research
Cents Per Bushel ----- Malting, Top Quality, Mpls. (Jan. 1972 - date) ----- No. 2 Mpls. (Jan. 1909 - June 1925) No. 3 Mpls. (July 1925 - June 1976) No. 2 Feed, Mpls. (July 1976 - Dec. 1986) No. 2 Feed, Duluth (Mar. 1987 - Dec. 1990) - - - No. 1 Western Feed, Lethbridge (Aug. 1991 - date)
9
BARLEY Average Price Received by Farmers for All Barley in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
1.93 1.70 2.04 1.98 2.09 2.99 2.63 2.57
2.01 2.04 2.70 2.00 2.14 2.74 2.54 2.38
2.07 2.37 2.23 2.41 2.68 2.91 2.77 2.52
2.01 2.03 1.81 2.24 2.64 2.88 2.43 2.36
1.91 1.96 1.97 2.29 2.64 2.74 2.29 2.41
2.05 2.14 2.15 2.30 2.79 2.83 2.45 2.64
2.03 2.25 2.22 2.21 2.91 2.93 2.49 2.49
1.89 2.04 2.00 2.09 2.85 2.69 2.41 2.47
1.90 2.13 2.10 2.17 2.87 2.73 2.31
2.00 2.23 2.07 2.17 2.83 2.77 2.46
1.78 2.09 2.05 2.09 2.85 2.78 2.32
1.82 2.19 2.12 2.24 2.91 2.78 2.46
1.95 2.10 2.12 2.18 2.68 2.81 2.46 2.49
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Feed Barley in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
1.82 1.55 1.73 1.77 1.83 2.33 2.20 2.07
1.62 1.48 1.71 1.63 1.88 2.22 2.21 1.98
1.49 1.50 1.50 1.54 2.05 2.39 1.83 1.79
1.40 1.64 1.54 1.71 2.23 2.27 1.64 1.82
1.46 1.61 1.71 1.86 2.26 2.24 1.58 1.81
1.47 1.66 1.87 1.79 2.32 2.43 1.78 1.77
1.55 1.64 1.90 1.77 2.14 2.26 1.66 1.74
1.58 1.63 1.80 1.67 2.17 2.15 1.65 1.93
1.60 1.68 1.77 1.69 2.20 2.16 1.60 1.90
1.49 1.78 1.76 1.75 2.30 2.19 1.68
1.54 1.68 1.73 1.79 2.20 2.17 1.54
1.62 1.94 1.91 1.89 2.33 2.39 1.71
1.55 1.65 1.74 1.74 2.16 2.27 1.76 1.87
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistical Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Open Interest of Western Feed Barley Futures in Winnipeg Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
15,789 8,231 16,709 19,453 9,771 8,559 6,731 9,321
17,337 10,635 20,500 20,515 10,653 8,203 6,881 8,164
18,039 10,579 21,100 19,163 11,255 8,546 6,262 9,144
14,706 9,713 22,501 19,458 11,113 9,028 9,779 9,476
12,666 8,333 20,299 16,020 11,141 9,631 10,497 9,475
10,847 8,993 17,402 15,778 11,068 10,290 9,930 9,140
9,915 10,348 15,128 16,475 11,271 10,676 9,992 6,481
10,384 11,959 15,095 17,202 13,046 9,580 9,743 6,880
11,420 13,206 15,885 16,926 13,845 8,409 11,140 6,046
11,460 15,014 14,921 13,577 12,172 7,154 11,956 5,839
11,338 15,662 17,192 11,407 9,000 7,524 12,786 6,538
8,622 15,031 19,605 10,480 8,027 5,346 10,916 7,281
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Volume of Trading of Western Barley Futures in Winnipeg Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
23,954 15,463 23,371 26,836 14,268 10,555 11,405 15,452
23,472 17,539 22,598 18,732 16,370 18,933 16,265 12,171
23,904 13,853 21,563 16,962 15,924 13,069 12,784 19,849
23,553 17,179 23,631 24,993 17,663 18,879 23,806 9,325
17,395 8,911 19,816 26,361 21,440 13,900 13,179 16,469
20,273 16,294 24,298 20,465 18,349 15,153 27,081 14,741
21,011 17,936 15,230 20,849 19,860 13,293 15,326 4,100
18,101 15,837 11,981 20,137 23,436 29,799 14,933 11,815
16,097 29,141 23,105 19,735 22,431 19,438 23,072 7,573
21,330 16,662 23,447 21,276 14,471 18,937 15,790 12,665
21,589 26,445 42,529 14,926 17,035 17,768 22,516 8,452
8,315 16,117 14,508 6,302 10,772 10,977 8,478 3,952
238,994 211,377 266,077 237,574 212,019 200,701 204,635 136,564
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
10
In Contracts
Jan.
Bauxite Bauxite is a naturally occurring, heterogeneous material comprised of one or more aluminum hydroxide minerals plus various mixtures of silica, iron oxide, titanium, alumina-silicates, and other impurities in trace amounts. Bauxite is an important ore of aluminum and forms by the rapid weathering of granite rocks in warm, humid climates. It is easily purified and can be converted directly into either alum or metallic aluminum. It is a soft mineral with hardness varying from 1 to 3, and specific gravity from 2 to 2.55. Bauxite is dull in appearance and may vary in color from white to brown. It usually occurs in aggregates in pea-sized lumps.
world’s largest producer of bauxite is Australia with 35% of world production in 2005, followed by Brazil (10.9%), China (10.3%), Guinea (9.7%), and Jamaica (8.5%). Chinese production of bauxite has quadrupled in the past 10 years. India’s bauxite production has also risen rapidly and is more than triple the amount seen 15 years ago. Demand – US consumption of bauxite in 2003 rose by +12.2% yr/yr to 11.200 million metric tons from 9.980 million metric tons in 2002, which was still well below the record high of 15.962 million metric tons seen in 1980. The alumina industry took 95% of bauxite production in 2003, or 10.600 million metric tons. The refractory industry took 1.3% of US bauxite supply in 2003 (150,000 metric tons), the abrasive industry took 0.5% (53,000 metric tons), and the chemical industry took the remainder.
Bauxite is the only raw material used in the production of alumina on a commercial scale in the United States. Bauxite is classified according to the intended commercial application, such as abrasive, cement, chemical, metallurgical, and refractory. Of all the bauxite mined, about 95 percent is converted to alumina for the production of aluminum metal with some smaller amounts going to nonmetal uses as various forms of specialty alumina. Small amounts are used in non-metallurgical bauxite applications. Bauxite is also used to produce aluminum chemicals and is used in the steel industry.
Trade – The US relies on imports for virtually 100% of its consumption needs. Domestic ore, which provides less than 1 percent of the US requirement for bauxite, was mined by one company from surface mines in the states of Alabama and Georgia. US imports of bauxite fell –1.0% yr/yr to 10.400 million metric tons in 2005, which was well below the record of 14.976 million metric tons seen in 1974. US exports of bauxite in 2005 were negligible at 75,000 metric tons.
Supply – World production of bauxite rose 3.8% yr/yr in 2005 to a new record high 165 million metric tons. The
World Production of Bauxite
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Australia
Brazil
China
Greece
Guinea
Guyana2
Hungary
India
Jamai ca 3
Russia3
Sierra Leone
Suriname
World Total
42,655 43,063 44,465 44,553 48,416 53,802 53,799 54,135 55,602 56,593
10,214 10,998 11,671 11,961 14,372 13,866 13,388 13,148 18,457 18,500
5,000 6,200 8,000 8,200 8,500 9,000 9,800 12,000 13,000 15,000
2,200 2,452 1,877 1,823 1,883 1,991 2,052 2,492 2,418 2,444
15,800 15,600 16,359 15,570 15,590 15,700 15,100 15,700 16,000 16,000
2,028 2,475 2,467 2,267 2,359 2,471 1,950 1,690 1,716 1,500
1,015 1,044 743 1,138 935 1,047 1,000 720 666 647
5,240 5,757 6,019 6,102 6,712 7,562 7,864 9,647 10,414 11,285
10,857 11,863 11,987 12,646 11,688 11,127 12,370 13,120 13,444 13,296
3,100 3,300 3,350 3,450 3,750 4,200 4,000 4,500 5,500 6,000
-------------------------------
3,530 3,695 3,877 3,931 3,715 3,610 4,394 4,002 4,215 4,052
112,000 117,000 122,000 123,000 129,000 136,000 137,000 144,000 155,000 159,000
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Dry Bauxite equivalent of ore processed.
Salient Statistics of Bauxite in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Net Import ----------- Dry Equivalent ----------- ------- Stocks, December 31 ------Reliance Average Price ------------------ Consumption by Industry -----------------Imports3 Producers as a % of & ConApparent FOB Mine (for ConConGovernTotal Alumina Abrasive Chemical Refractory sumption) Exports3 sumption sumers Consumption $ per Ton ment Total
99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
15-18 15-18 15-18 25 23 23 23 20 19 22
10,900 11,000 11,500 12,700 11,700 10,800 9,770 9,980 11,300 13,500
10,100 10,300 10,700 12,000 11,100 10,100 9,010 9,290 10,600 12,500
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncluding concentrates. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
133 117 98 135 113 111 61 52 53 53
201 W W W W W W W W W
394 380 466 332 251 160 175 115 150 260
10,582 10,552 11,069 11,393 10,189 8,550 8,300 7,340 8,390 10,000
108 132 85 99 149 133 67 27 55 42
10,900 11,000 11,500 12,700 11,700 10,800 9,770 9,980 11,300 13,500
1,730 1,930 2,260 1,860 1,440 1,300 1,740 1,280 3,830 3,120
16,300 15,700 14,300 11,000 6,800 5,710 2,070 1,770 66 ----
18,100 17,600 16,500 12,800 8,250 7,000 3,810 3,050 3,900 3,120
W = Withheld to avoid disclosing company proprietary data.
11
Bismuth Bismuth (symbol Bi) is a rare metallic element with a pinkish tinge. Bismuth has been known since ancient times, but it was confused with lead, tin, and zinc until the middle of the 18th century. Among the elements in the earth’s crust, bismuth is ranked about 73rd in natural abundance. This makes bismuth about as rare as silver. Most industrial bismuth is obtained as a by-product of ore extraction. Bismuth is useful for castings because of the unusual way that it expands after solidifying. Some of bismuth’s alloys have unusually low melting points. Bismuth is one of the most difficult of all substances to magnetize. It tends to turn at right angles to a magnetic field. Because of this property, it is used in instruments for measuring the strength of magnetic fields. Bismuth finds a wide variety of uses such as pharmaceutical compounds, ceramic glazes, crystal ware, and chemicals and pigments. Bismuth is found in household pharmaceuticals and is used to treat stomach ulcers. Bismuth is opaque to X-rays and can be used in fluoroscopy. Bismuth has also found new use as a nontoxic substitute for lead in various applications such as brass plumbing fixtures, crystal ware, lubricating greases, pigments, and solders. There has been environmental interest in the use of bismuth as a replacement for lead used in shot for waterfowl hunting and in fishing sinkers. Another use has been for galvanizing to improve drainage characteristics of galvanizing alloys. Zinc-
World Production of Bismuth Year
1
Canada
China
Ja p a n
Mexico
Peru
Total
196 186 311 243 258 189 145 145
550 240 2,680 1,120 1,250 1,700 2,100 2,500
30 24 24 26 28 24 26 23
1,642 1,204 548 1,112 1,390 1,126 1,064 1,100
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
4,360 3,980 4,860 3,800 4,300 4,400 4,700 5,100
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Prices – The average price of bismuth (99.99% pure) in the US in 2005 rose 19.7% to $3.57 per pound from $2.98 per pound in 2004. The increase is due primarily to the strengthening global economy over the past few years. Supply – World mine production of bismuth in 2004 rose +8.5% to a record high of 5,100 metric tons. The world’s largest producer in 2004 was China with 49% of world production, followed by Mexico with 22%, Peru with 20%, and Canada with 3%. Regarding production of the refined metal, China had 56% of production, Mexico had 14%, Belgium had 10%, and Peru had 7% in 2004. The US does not have any significant domestic refinery production of bismuth. Demand – US consumption of bismuth in 2004 rose +14.2% to a record high of 2,420 metric tons from the 2,120 metric tons in 2003. Of that consumption, 46% went for metallurgical additives, 29% for fusible alloys, 24% for chemicals, and 1% for other uses. Trade – US imports of bismuth fell –14.7% to 1,980 metric tons from last year’s 5-year high of 2,320 metric tons. Of US imports, 40% came from Belgium and 25% came from Mexico. US exports of bismuth and alloys were negligible in 2004 at 109 metric tons, up 1% from the 108 metric tons in 2003.
In Metric Tons (Mine Output=Metal Content)
-------------------------- Mine Output, Metal Content --------------------------
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
bismuth alloys have the same drainage properties as zinclead without being as hazardous.
------------------------------------------------- Refined Metal --------------------------------------KazakBelgium China hastan Ja p a n Mexico Peru Total
800 700 700 700 700 1,000 1,000 800
760 820 860 770 1,230 2,600 4,800 4,500
50 50 55 55 130 130 130 130
550 479 481 520 551 474 513 460
990 1,030 412 1,083 1,390 1,126 1,064 1,100
774 832 705 744 640 568 600 600
Source U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Bismuth in the United States
In Metric Tons
---------------------------- Bismuth Consumed, By Uses -----------------------------
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Metallurgical Additives
Other Alloys & Uses
Fusible Alloys
252 335 340 346 369 388 833 1,110
31 32 31 34 45 50 25 22
593 741 823 889 981 1,070 646 703
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
4,070 4,330 3,570 4,200 5,000 6,300 8,500 8,000
3
Chemicals3
Total Consumption
Consumer Stocks D e c. 3 1
Exports of Metal & Alloys
Belgium
Mexico
Peru
Total
Dealer Price $ P er Pound
655 884 855 861 805 813 616 584
1,530 1,990 2,050 2,130 2,200 2,320 2,120 2,420
213 175 130 118 95 111 279 117
206 245 257 491 541 131 108 109
691.0 739.0 742.0 832.0 728.0 724.0 778.0 793.0
601.0 807.0 277.0 516.0 605.0 518.0 532.0 495.0
163.0 68.8 6.8 20.4 ---19.5 0.1 39.8
2,170 2,720 2,110 2,410 2,220 1,930 2,320 1,980
3.50 3.60 3.85 3.70 3.74 3.14 2.87 3.22
I ncludes pharmaceuticals.
Imports from --------------- Metallic Bismuth from ---------------
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Price of Bismuth (99.99% ) in the United States
In Dollars Per Pound
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2002 2003 2004 2005
---2.90 2.98 2.98
3.20 2.90 2.98 2.98
3.20 2.90 2.98 2.98
3.10 2.92 2.98 2.98
3.05 2.98 2.98 2.98
3.05 2.98 2.98 2.98
2.94 2.98 2.98 3.20
2.90 2.98 2.98 4.10
2.90 2.98 2.98 4.17
2.90 2.98 2.98 4.30
2.90 2.98 2.98 4.54
2.90 2.98 2.98 4.63
3.00 2.96 2.98 3.57
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
12
Broilers Broiler chickens are raised for meat rather than for eggs. The broiler industry was started in the late 1950’s when chickens were selectively bred for meat production. Broiler chickens are housed in massive flocks mainly between 20,000 and 50,000 birds, with some flocks reaching over 100,000 birds. Broiler chicken farmers usually rear five or six batches of chickens per year. After just six or seven weeks, broiler chickens are slaughtered (a chicken’s natural lifespan is around seven years). Chickens marketed as pouissons, or spring chickens, are slaughtered after four weeks. A few are kept longer than seven weeks to be sold as the larger roasting chickens.
pound, from last year’s record high. Supply – Total production of broilers in 2005 rose by +3.2% yr/yr to 35.225 billion pounds, which was a new record high. The number of broilers raised for commercial production in 2004 (the latest data available) rose by +2.8% yr/yr to a new record of 8.740 billion birds. The average weight per bird rose by 1.4% to 5.246 pounds, which was a new record high and was nearly 50% heavier than the average bird weight of 3.62 pounds seen in 1970, attesting to the increased efficiency of the industry. Demand – US per capita consumption of broilers in 2005 rose to a new record high of 86.7 pounds (ready-to-cook) per person per year. US consumption of chicken has nearly doubled in the past two decades, up from 47.0 pounds in 1980, as consumers have increased their consumption of chicken because of the focus on low-carb diets and because chicken is a leaner and healthier meat than either beef or pork.
Prices – The average monthly price received by farmers for broilers (live weight) fell in 2005 by –4.1% yr/yr to 43.3 cents per pound from last year’s record high of 45.2. The average monthly price for wholesale broilers (ready-tocook) in 2005 (through July) fell –2.5% to 72.28 cents per
Broiler Supply and Prices in the United States ---------------------- Federally Inspected Slaughter ---------------------Certified Liveweight Average RTC Weight Pounds Weight Number (Mil. Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) (Pounds) (Millions)
Year & Quarters
2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
8,239 8,387 8,511 8,522 8,762 8,842 2,153 2,247 2,262 2,180
I II III IV Preliminary. condemnation.
1
2
5.00 5.04 5.12 5.19 5.26 5.37 5.32 5.35 5.32 5.49
38,417 42,337 43,529 44,247 46,097 47,475 11,445 12,025 12,033 11,971
30,397 31,257 32,190 32,700 34,064 35,238 8,476 8,941 8,931 8,891
Total Production RTC3 (Mil. Lbs.)
Per Capita Consumption RTC Basis (Mil. Lbs.)
30,495 31,266 32,240 32,749 34,063 35,293 8,571 8,941 8,931 8,850
77.4 76.6 80.5 81.6 84.3 85.6 21.3 21.7 21.6 21.1
------------------ Prices -----------------Farm
Geogia Dock4
---------- Cents per Pound ----------
35.20 39.58 30.42 35.33 45.17 43.33 43.33 44.00 44.67 41.33
58.14 62.08 61.65 64.80 74.69 72.83 72.70 73.25 73.79 71.56
Estimate. 3 Total production equals federal inspected slaughter plus other slaughter minus cut-up & further processing Ready-to-cook basis. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
4
Salient Statistics of Broilers in the United States ------------------------------------- Total Chickens3 Supply and Distribution --------------------------------
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
-------- Average -------------------- Production ------------Commercial Storage ----- Production ----- Liveweight Average Other Stocks Broiler ------ Consumption -----Value of Federally Total January 1 Exports Feed Ratio Number Liveweight Per Bird Total Per Capita4 Price Production Inspected Chickens (Mil. Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) (Pounds) (Cents/Lb.) (Mil. $) ----------------------- In Millions of Pounds ----------------------- (Pounds) (Mil. Lbs.) (Pounds)
8,146 8,263 8,389 8,591 8,493 8,741
Preliminary.
2
40,830 41,516 42,446 44,059 43,958 45,796
Estimate.
3
5.01 5.02 5.06 5.13 5.18 5.24 Ready-to-cook.
37.1 33.6 39.3 30.5 34.6 44.6 4
15,129 13,989 16,696 13,437 15,215 20,446
Retail weight basis.
Average Wholesale Broiler1 Prices RTC Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 1
29,468 30,209 30,938 31,895 32,313 33,542
554 531 515 547 502 490
30,022 31,740 31,453 32,442 32,815 34,032
717 804 807 720 768 611 716
4,978 5,138 5,737 4,941 4,920 4,768 5,211
6.7 7.8 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.9 7.0
24,965 25,606 25,819 27,467 32,749 34,063 35,293
77.00 77.40 76.60 80.50 81.60 84.30 85.60
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
(Ready-to-Cook)
(In Cents Per Pound)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
59.33 55.43 56.87 56.86 60.46 68.66 71.40
58.23 53.84 57.47 55.91 60.49 74.96 71.43
56.79 54.48 58.95 55.17 60.02 75.94 72.81
55.08 55.39 58.46 53.47 57.78 76.40 73.21
60.02 55.71 59.40 56.42 59.44 79.54 72.54
60.33 56.01 59.88 58.44 61.56 82.00 72.19
59.46 56.61 60.43 57.47 62.80 81.59 72.47
57.65 55.47 60.90 55.72 63.20 75.44 71.45
57.15 58.35 61.93 55.88 64.08 70.07 72.51
54.87 57.22 60.17 52.97 63.59 68.79 69.02
59.52 58.22 58.89 53.42 64.45 68.08 66.95
58.42 57.23 55.98 54.74 65.71 68.01 63.98
58.07 56.16 59.11 55.54 61.97 74.12 70.83
12-city composite wholesale price.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
13
Butter Butter is a dairy product produced by churning the fat from milk, usually cow’s milk, until it solidifies. In some parts of the world, butter is also made from the milk of goats, sheep, and even horses. Butter has been in use since at least 2,000 BC. Today butter is used principally as a food item, but in ancient times it was used more as an ointment, medicine, or illuminating oil. Butter was first churned in skin pouches thrown back and forth over the backs of trotting horses. It takes about 10 quarts of milk to produce 1 pound of butter. The manufacture of butter is the third largest use of milk in the US. California is generally the largest producing state, followed closely by Wisconsin, with Washington as a distant third. Commercially finished butter is comprised of milk fat (80% to 85%), water (12% to 16%), and salt (about 2%). Although the price of butter is highly correlated with the price of milk, it also has its own supply and demand dynamics. The consumption of butter has dropped in recent decades because pure butter has a high level of animal fat and cholesterol that have been linked to obesity and heart disease. The primary substitute for butter is margarine, which is produced from vegetable oil rather than milk fat. US per capita consumption of margarine has risen from 2.6 pounds in 1930 to recent levels near 8.3 pounds, much higher than US butter consumption. Futures on butter are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The CME’s butter futures contract calls for the delivery of 40,000 pounds of Grade AA butter and is priced in cents per pound.
Supply and Distribution of Butter in the United States
Year
------------------------ Supply -----------------------Cold Storage Stocks3 ProTotal Imports duction Supply Jan. 15
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
1,174 1,151 1,082 1,167 1,274 1,237 1,355 1,242 1,250
19 14 21 26 25 24 56 158 100
10.545 24.154 70.369 39.813 32.400 75.000 34.800 32.200 50.600
1,204 1,177 1,243 1,337 1,331 1,336 1,446 1,432 1,400
Prices – The average monthly price of butter at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2005 (through June) fell by 15.8% to 152.90 cents/pound, down from last year’s record high of 181.67. That was still sharply higher than the 8year low of 110.59 cents posted in 2002. Supply – World production of butter in 2005 rose +4.3% yr/yr to 6.960 million metric tons, which is the highest production level since the record high of 7.271 million metric tons was posted in 1986. The world’s largest producers of butter are India with 41% of the world production in 2005, the United States with 8%, New Zealand with 6%, and Russia with 4%. Production of creamery butter by US factories in 2005 (monthly average through November) rose +5.6% to1.320 billion pounds. However, that was far below the record of 1.365 billion pounds seen in 1992. Demand – US usage of butter in 2003 (the latest data available) fell by –7.8% yr/yr to 1.192 billion pounds. That was only about one-half of the usage levels above 2 billion seen in the 1930s and 1940s, illustrating the downtrend in US butter consumption. Per capita consumption of butter in the US in 2000, the latest reporting year for the series, was 4.4 pounds per person per year, little changed from 1980 but sharply lower than 7.5 pounds in 1960 and 17.3 pounds in 1930. Trade – US imports of butter in 2003 (the latest data available) fell by –8.8% yr/yr to 31.73 million pounds, accounting for only a very small portion of US usage. US butter exports in 2003 rose +267% to a 6-year high of 22 million pounds.
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------- Distribution -------------------------------------
-------- 93 Score --------
-- Domestic Disappearance -- --- Department of Agriculture --P er Removed Capita Jan. 1 Dec. 31 by USDA Stocks4 Total (Pounds) Exports Stocks4 Programs
AA Wholesale Price
1,148 1,115 1,220 1,307 1,329 1,268 1,293 1,307 1,326
4.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5
83 46 33 20 9 8 6 22
Preliminary. 2 Estimates. 3 I ncludes butter-equivalent. 4 I ncludes butteroil. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 5
Year
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
261.7 335.7 325.6 302.7 289.0 299.3
254.9 269.0 301.8 250.7 276.3 316.4
285.0 261.2 237.5 265.8 255.3 318.3
298.3 304.9 310.3 287.6 308.6 374.8
1,097.3 1,186.0 1,180.0 1,109.0 1,137.0 1,308.8
1
Preliminary.
14
0.1 38.4 12.6 3.7 8.9
1,190 1,156 1,229 1,314 1,289 1,275 1,288
29.1 -6.6
----------------------------
1.0824 1.1625 1.7685 1.2396 1.1768 1.6630 1.1059 1.1450 1.8166
I ncludes stocks held by USDA.
Commercial Disappearance of Creamery Butter in the United States First Quarter
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 0
California Chicago Total Use ----- $ per Pound -----
In Millions of Pounds
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
300.8 290.9 313.5 304.2 286.3 286.8
286.9 278.4 263.5 275.4 303.2 275.0
332.3 316.1 317.4 317.2 340.8 346.9
380.6 397.0 393.4 411.8 421.1 431.6
1,300.6 1,282.4 1,287.8 1,308.6 1,351.4 1,340.3
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
BUTTER World (Total) Butter3 Production Year
Australia
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
154 176 180 160 164 163 132 131
In Thousands of Metric Tons
France
Germany
India
Ireland
Netherlands
New Zealand
Poland
Russia
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
463 448 72 78 70 72 75 77
426 427 77 84 77 84 86 88
1,600 1,750 10 12 12 13 12 11
145 143 1,995 2,021 2,226 2,226 2,154 2,150
149 140 1,950 2,250 2,400 2,450 2,600 2,850
343 316 88 80 83 80 80 80
183 168 70 70 70 77 88 89
270 260 344 352 370 392 390 345
113 108 265 270 280 280 270 270
137 143 135 156 131 148 138 140
530 579 570 559 615 563 567 605
5,336 5,513 5,814 6,145 6,555 6,599 6,601 6,843
1 Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Factory (including creameries and dairies) & farm. U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service,
Production of Creamery Butter in Factories in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
117.8 123.3 139.9 127.4 140.1 141.9 129.3 128.7
105.7 111.5 128.2 111.8 124.2 128.1 108.6 113.5
106.7 113.7 121.0 111.4 127.7 126.4 100.4 122.1
107.1 106.4 111.7 109.0 131.6 122.8 100.3 115.7
92.6 104.7 108.9 111.0 125.5 114.9 110.1 119.5
69.9 86.0 89.1 86.8 95.8 84.2 99.2 106.4
63.8 75.8 85.4 84.2 94.4 80.1 92.6 95.3
64.3 66.1 83.7 75.6 88.9 70.9 90.3 91.6
68.2 78.8 89.9 86.7 92.8 73.3 94.2 100.1
88.5 93.0 103.9 109.9 102.6 96.8 104.4 107.2
91.1 90.4 100.4 100.1 103.9 88.4 101.4 111.0
106.3 117.2 111.6 123.0 127.6 114.6 118.8 126.2
1,081.9 1,166.8 1,273.6 1,236.8 1,355.1 1,242.4 1,249.7 1,337.3
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of Creamery Butter on First of Month in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
20.8 25.9 25.1 24.1 55.9 157.8 99.6 45.0
34.2 60.8 82.4 68.4 99.2 204.8 152.4 77.2
44.2 95.0 107.8 86.1 130.1 239.9 159.1 110.9
55.9 108.4 114.0 96.2 145.2 249.0 158.1 132.5
67.4 125.5 126.9 112.3 196.6 263.7 155.7 164.5
72.7 136.6 138.2 138.0 226.8 298.0 178.7 178.0
60.6 120.6 145.8 153.5 243.0 301.4 189.2 179.7
51.0 123.6 136.9 151.1 245.3 283.9 193.5 176.7
41.1 90.7 101.3 118.0 229.5 253.9 161.0 149.6
34.1 71.5 85.0 110.9 209.1 207.2 133.0 124.1
31.2 64.2 58.3 100.8 164.6 170.2 107.2 98.1
28.7 30.2 27.3 57.9 135.6 122.5 57.2 60.4
Preliminary.
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Average Price of Butter at Chicago Mercantile Exchange1 Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Millions of Pounds
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
109.2 144.4 91.6 122.3 134.5 108.2 143.2 157.8
139.8 133.1 92.9 138.1 124.3 104.1 171.3 161.5
134.1 130.3 99.7 154.9 124.7 109.2 213.5 155.3
136.4 103.9 108.7 174.7 117.1 109.1 222.0 149.3
153.2 111.0 122.2 190.4 105.9 109.2 203.6 140.4
186.7 147.7 128.6 197.4 104.3 111.4 193.0 153.1
203.1 134.7 120.3 192.4 103.0 119.9 174.6 162.1
216.6 141.4 120.3 204.5 97.5 117.1 154.1 168.6
273.1 135.8 119.1 219.7 96.4 117.3 176.6 169.9
242.3 113.8 116.9 151.9 103.2 118.5 164.8 162.0
187.9 109.6 151.7 135.2 104.3 120.6 192.4 142.6
140.8 94.2 150.0 130.2 112.0 129.7 170.8 135.5
177.6 125.0 118.5 167.6 110.6 114.5 181.7 154.8
Data from June 1998 through December 2001 are for Wholesale Price of 92 Score Creamery (Grade A) Butter, Central States; prior to June 1998 are for Grade AA in Chicago. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Cents Per Pound ----- New York (1831 - 1928) Grade AA, Chicago (Jan. 1929 - May 1998) 92 Score Creamery (Grade A), Central States (June 1998 - Dec. 2001) Chicago Mercantile Exchange (Jan. 2002 - date)
15
Cadmium Cadmium (symbol Cd) is a soft, bluish-white, metallic element that can easily be shaped and cut with a knife. Cadmium melts at 321 degrees Celsius and boils at 765 degrees Celsius. Cadmium burns brightly in air when heated, forming the oxide CdO. In 1871, the German chemist Friedrich Stromeyer discovered cadmium in incrustations in zinc furnaces. Rare greenockite is the only mineral bearing cadmium. Cadmium occurs most often in small quantities associated with zinc ores, such as sphalerite. Electrolysis or fractional distillation is used to separate the cadmium and zinc. About 80% of world cadmium output is a by-product from zinc refining. The remaining 20% comes from secondary sources and recycling of cadmium products. Cadmium recycling is practical only from nickel-cadmium batteries and from some alloys and dust from electric-arc furnaces. Cadmium is used primarily for metal plating and coating operations in transportation equipment, machinery, baking enamels, photography, and television phosphors. It is also used in pigments and lasers, and in nickel-cadmium and solar batteries. Prices – Cadmium prices in the past 7 years have been at severely depressed levels, reflecting the decreased demand for the substance. However, in 2004 cadmium prices rose sharply by +42.0% to 71 cents per pound from 50 cents per pound in 2003. That was far above the record low of 14 cents
World Refinery Production of Cadmium Year
In Metric Tons
Australia
Belgium
Canada
China
Finland
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Kazakhstan
Mexico
United Kingdom
United States3
World Total
632 585 462 552 378 350 350 350
1,420 1,318 1,235 1,148 1,236 117 120 120
2,260 2,090 1,911 1,941 1,493 1,706 1,759 1,888
1,980 2,130 2,150 2,370 2,510 2,440 2,710 2,800
650 520 700 683 604 4 -------
1,145 1,020 1,145 458 539 422 640 640
287 328 360 284 312 391 100 100
2,473 2,337 2,567 2,472 2,460 2,444 2,497 2,233
745 1,622 1,246 1,250 1,250 1,300 1,351 1,900
1,223 1,218 1,275 1,268 1,241 1,382 1,590 1,600
455 440 547 503 485 450 450 450
2,060 1,240 1,190 1,890 680 700 670 550
20,300 20,200 20,000 20,300 19,000 17,500 18,500 18,800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 Preliminary.
1
2
Estimate.
3
Primary and secondary metal.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Cadmium in the United States
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1 6
in 1999 but it was far below the 20-year average price of $1.59 per pound and the record high of $6.91 per pound in 1988. Supply – World cadmium production in 2004 rose +1.6% yr/yr to 18,800 metric tons, up from the 3-decade low of 17,500 metric tons in 2002. The largest producer was China with 15% of total world production followed by Japan with 12%. US production of cadmium in 2004 fell -17.9% yr/yr to 550 metric tons, which was a new record low. The US production level in 2003 was almost one-fourth the level seen as recently as 2000. The US in 2003 accounted for just 3% of world cadmium production. Demand – Consumption of cadmium has been declining fairly steeply in the last few years due to environmental concerns. US cadmium consumption fell by –5.7% yr/yr in 2004 to a record low of 500 metric tons. Of the total apparent consumption, about 75% is used for batteries, 12% for pigments, 8% for coatings and plating, 4% for nonferrous alloys, and 1% for other uses. Trade – The US in 2004 relied on imports for only 8% of its cadmium usage, down from 38% as recently as 1996. US imports of cadmium have plunged in the past 10 years and imports in 2004 were only 38 metric tons (up from 18 metric tons in 2003). That is down sharply from levels above 1,000 metric tons as recently as 1994. US exports of cadmium fell sharply to 132 metric tons in 2004 from 558 metric tons in 2003.
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Consumption
Production (Metal)
Producer Shipments
Cadmium Sulfide Production
2,060 1,240 1,190 1,890 680 700 670 550
1,370 1,570 1,020 1,580 954 776 320 44
113 125 64 42 31 33 -------
19 38 9 6 3 0 0 0
In Metric Tons of Contained Cadmium
Production Other Compounds
Imports of Cadmium Metal3
Exports4
607 638 604 417 -------------
790 514 294 425 107 25 18 38
554 180 20 314 272 194 558 132
Apparent Consumption
Industry Stocks D e c. 3 1 5
New York Dealer Price $ per Pound
2,510 2,100 1,850 2,010 659 561 530 496
1,090 729 893 1,200 1,090 1,750 1,460 1,420
.51 .28 .14 .16 .23 .29 .59 .55
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 For consumption. 4 Cadmium metal, alloys, dross, flue dust. 5 Metallic, Compounds, Distributors. Sticks & Balls in 1 to 5 short ton lots. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Price of Cadmium (99.95% ) in the United States Year
2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
58.33 57.50 62.50
55.00 62.24 62.50
55.00 62.50 79.46
55.00 62.50 92.50
59.29 62.50 92.50
67.50 62.50 110.80
67.50 62.50 159.50
67.50 62.50 200.76
67.50 62.50 205.00
63.15 62.50 194.76
57.50 62.50 195.00
57.50 62.50 195.00
60.90 62.06 137.52
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
16
In Dollars Per Pound
Jan.
Canola (Rapeseed) Canola is a genetic variation of rapeseed that was developed by Canadian plant breeders specifically for its nutritional qualities and its low level of saturated fat. The term Canola is a contraction of “Canadian oil.” The history of canola oil begins with the rapeseed plant, a member of the mustard family. The rape plant is grown both as feed for livestock and birdfeed. For 4,000 years, the oil from the rapeseed was used in China and India for cooking and as lamp oil. During World War II, rapeseed oil was used as a marine and industrial lubricant. After the war, the market for rapeseed oil plummeted. Rapeseed growers needed other uses for their crop, and that stimulated the research that led to the development of canola. In 1974, Canadian plant breeders from the University of Manitoba produced canola by genetically altering rapeseed. Each canola plant produces yellow flowers, which then produce pods. The tiny round seeds within each pod are crushed to produce canola oil. Each canola seed contains approximately 40% oil. Canola oil is the world’s third largest source of vegetable oil accounting for 13% of world vegetable oils, following soybean oil at 32%, and palm oil at 28%. The rest of the seed is processed into canola meal, which is used as high protein livestock feed. The climate in Canada is especially suitable for canola plant growth. Today, over 13 million acres of Canadian soil are dedicated to canola production. Canola oil is Canada’s leading vegetable oil. Due to strong demand from the US for canola oil, approximately 70% of Canada’s canola oil is exported to the US. Canola oil is used as a salad oil, cooking oil, and for margarine as well as in the manufacture of inks, biodegradable greases, pharmaceuticals, fuel, soap, and cosmetics. Canola futures and options are traded at the Winnipeg Exchange. The futures contract calls for the delivery of 20 metric tons of canola and 5 contracts are together called a “1 board lot.” The contract is priced in Canadian dollars per metric ton. Prices – Canola prices on the Winnipeg nearest-futures chart started 2005 at about CD$263 per metric ton, rallied into mid-year to post a high of CD$314 per metric ton, but then turned lower to close the year at about CD$230 per metric ton. The average monthly wholesale price of canola
World Production of Canola (Rapeseed) Year
Austrlia
Canada
China
Czechoslovakia
309 557 624 856 1,690 2,460 1,775 1,756 871 1,703 1,496 1,350
7,233 6,436 5,062 6,392 7,643 8,798 7,205 5,017 4,178 6,771 7,728 9,660
7,492 9,777 9,200 9,578 8,300 10,132 11,381 11,331 10,552 11,420 13,182 11,400
452 662 521 575 680 931 249 238 233 218 230 230
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
oil in the Midwest in 2004 rose +16.1% yr/yr to 33.21 cents per pound, which was a 7-year high. The average monthly wholesale price of canola meal (delivery Pacific Northwest) fell sharply by -26% to a 5-year low of $139.75 per short ton in the 2004/2005-crop year. By early in 2006, however, the price was up into the $150 dollar range so that for the first four months of the 2005/2006-crop year the average price was up to $144.45 per short ton. Supply – World canola production in the 2004-05 marketing year (the latest year for which complete data is available) rose by +9.1% yr/yr to a new record high of 43.027 million metric tons. The world’s largest canola producers were China with 28% of world production in 2004-05, Canada (18%), India (14%), Germany (12%), and France (9%). US production of canola in 2004-5 fell -10.6yr/yr to a 7-year low of 613,000 metric tons. Regarding canola products, world production of canola oil in 2004-05 (latest data available) rose +7.7% to 15.168 million metric tons, which was a new record high. US production of canola oil in 2004-05 rose +2.4% to 255,000 metric tons, which was a record high. World production of canola meal in 2004-05 rose +7.7% to a new record high of 23.589 million metric tons. Demand – World crush demand for canola in 2004-05 rose +8.0% yr/yr to 39.447 million metric tons, which was a new record high. World consumption of canola oil in 200405 rose +7.3% yr/yr to a new record high of 15.092 million metric tons. World consumption of canola meal in 2004-05 rose +7.4% to a new record high of 23.348 million metric tons. Trade – World canola exports in 2004-05 rose +9.2% to 5.910 million metric tons, world canola oil exports rose +5.0% to 1.389 million metric tons, and world canola meal exports fell –15.4% yr/yr to 2.015 million metric tons. World canola imports in 2004-05 rose +8.9% to 5.632 million metric tons, world canola oil imports rose +4.5% to 1.316 million metric tons, and world canola meal imports fell –16.8% to 1.825 million metric tons. Regarding US canola trade, US canola imports in 2004-05 rose +44.0% to 350,000 metric tons and US exports fell –28.0% to 219,000 metric tons.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
France
Germany
India
Pakistan
Poland
Sweden
United Kingdom
Former USSR
World Total
1,800 2,700 2,870 3,496 3,734 4,392 73 95 60 54 100 100
2,837 3,127 2,150 2,867 3,388 4,285 11,288 11,483 11,652 11,174 15,336 15,435
5,884 6,000 6,942 4,935 4,900 5,110 3,725 4,500 4,050 6,800 6,500 6,800
225 255 255 286 292 279 297 231 221 235 241 260
756 1,377 449 595 1,099 1,132 76 102 100 20 101 90
214 215 139 132 129 154 148 140 115 192 276 250
1,298 1,330 1,410 1,527 1,566 1,737 132 135 61 51 149 250
244 252 226 221 339 135 909 908 697 686 613 718
30,310 34,435 31,531 33,108 35,885 42,483 37,408 36,030 32,902 39,423 46,055 46,646
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA); The Oil World
17
CANOLA
Volume of Trading of Canola Futures in Winnipeg Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
99,542 121,433 100,926 129,758 137,528 196,137 164,945 129,903 145,339 116,678
95,034 133,056 144,309 59,772 182,744 292,226 179,753 152,738 204,567 207,198
76,704 131,473 110,708 132,732 163,038 286,463 166,889 108,991 178,516 141,717
128,169 148,647 140,789 143,282 169,807 247,744 159,981 153,528 192,429 124,636
148,189 117,219 130,551 102,838 168,164 205,798 133,202 120,178 120,218 102,424
103,892 116,117 121,829 134,179 152,358 188,175 139,256 152,979 128,843 178,001
135,652 80,867 107,816 94,256 79,071 163,901 132,524 90,909 73,417 87,724
87,896 72,602 89,457 113,913 91,762 155,531 174,527 66,768 97,483 121,749
108,490 93,967 121,573 130,505 146,890 143,220 131,034 109,760 113,368 138,701
161,894 150,065 181,002 184,973 208,639 205,016 170,873 217,310 175,776 200,004
90,105 97,984 127,120 157,428 154,727 174,910 105,661 90,950 110,922 145,231
110,453 124,245 181,278 179,798 204,045 165,852 169,477 153,269 196,094 258,922
1,346,020 1,387,675 1,557,358 1,563,434 1,858,773 2,424,973 1,828,122 1,547,283 1,736,972 1,822,985
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Average Open Interest of Canola Futures in Winnipeg Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
42,646 48,681 35,864 57,958 59,057 57,537 57,821 52,818 54,524 64,147
43,808 48,281 46,678 64,014 65,545 73,539 56,443 54,749 57,944 75,090
45,126 50,815 49,161 57,851 65,296 88,111 53,321 55,369 71,624 65,205
47,989 50,025 48,683 57,351 66,253 78,143 56,830 53,480 77,357 63,514
54,228 49,212 56,163 51,808 65,855 77,425 50,924 50,549 69,783 54,341
52,176 43,941 60,285 53,039 59,673 84,315 38,901 49,930 59,012 53,390
49,387 35,496 57,627 49,273 46,813 72,430 48,329 47,479 50,669 57,706
40,619 30,039 51,462 41,819 51,367 70,137 54,286 45,314 51,009 56,305
42,242 25,255 53,919 53,425 59,342 67,275 53,630 44,510 49,659 65,700
52,273 36,674 56,651 67,244 72,618 71,651 50,379 49,008 53,855 68,186
53,121 38,702 51,426 63,780 64,862 65,580 56,896 45,423 65,215 66,117
54,323 42,510 60,663 64,286 65,170 66,884 57,983 48,655 68,719 87,246
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
18
In Contracts
Jan.
CANOLA World Supply and Distribution of Canola and Products Year
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------- Canola ---------------------------- ------------------------ Canola Meal -----------------------ProEnding ProCon- Ending duction Exports Imports Crush Stocks duction Exports Imports sumption Stocks
35,812 6,836 42,483 8,207 37,408 7,196 36,030 4,918 32,902 4,106 39,423 5,478 46,055 5,033 46,646 6,354
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
6,990 8,170 7,021 4,978 4,021 5,249 4,963 6,191 3
31,952 37,138 35,425 33,486 31,597 36,527 40,432 41,475
Forecast.
2,241 4,204 2,693 2,786 1,839 1,855 3,963 5,023
19,173 22,083 21,141 19,795 18,713 21,653 24,081 24,692
2,052 2,315 1,834 1,483 1,587 2,415 2,188 2,247
2,167 2,251 1,713 1,419 1,569 2,287 2,143 2,083
19,365 21,972 21,115 19,717 18,729 21,543 24,033 24,477
1,844 1,738 1,137 1,050 907 1,248 1,261 1,400
1,625 1,736 1,232 1,102 934 1,322 1,180 1,416
11,586 13,744 13,415 13,187 12,336 14,355 15,592 16,276
488 690 699 626 570 493 488 434
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------------------- Canola Oil ---------------------------------------------
------------------------ Supply -------------------
------------------------- Supply ---------------------------- Disappearance ---------
--------- Disappearance ---------
Stocks June 1
Production
Imports
Total
Crush
Exports
Total3
Stocks June 1
Production
Imports
19 77 50 39 68 72 40 60
710 621 909 908 697 686 613 718
310 242 217 125 197 244 467 345
1,039 940 1,176 1,072 962 1,002 1,120 1,123
698 722 773 757 575 630 901 859
246 136 220 218 287 305 139 169
944 858 993 975 862 935 1,040 1,028
52 79 96 51 24 35 42 41
250 281 292 265 226 274 341 311
503 534 545 503 445 555 514 532
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
3
I ncludes planting seed and residual.
Wholesale Price of Canola Oil in Midw est2 Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
11,847 13,988 13,326 13,062 12,253 14,202 15,668 16,206
--------------------------------------------- Canola ---------------------------------------------
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
365 384 289 303 269 251 254 305
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA); The Oil World
Salient Statistics of Canola and Canola Oil in the United States
Year
------------------------- Canola Oil ------------------------ProCon- Ending duction Exports Imports sumption Stocks
Total Domestic
805 894 933 819 695 864 897 884
Exports
Total
123 129 85 116 73 126 120 124
726 798 882 795 660 822 839 851
603 669 797 679 587 696 719 727
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
90.00 28.00 25.31 17.31 14.81 20.81 24.30 33.44
90.00 29.00 21.44 16.50 15.19 21.31 28.88 37.19
90.00 30.30 20.69 17.25 16.69 27.44 27.63 38.19
90.00 30.58 21.50 18.69 16.69 21.94 27.44 36.81
90.00 31.13 20.38 17.75 18.00 21.95 28.13 35.60
90.00 28.45 20.58 16.45 19.25 23.19 27.13 32.88
90.00 28.44 19.33 15.50 22.50 25.06 26.56 31.63
90.00 26.85 19.75 15.69 21.80 28.45 26.30 29.50
90.00 29.75 19.25 15.60 19.94 29.81 28.44 31.38
82.00 28.20 18.44 15.00 19.00 30.75 31.88 28.35
82.00 27.19 18.19 15.31 20.56 34.19 32.67 31.75
82.00 26.10 17.95 15.50 21.88 41.19 33.92 31.75
88.00 28.67 20.23 16.38 18.86 27.17 28.61 33.21
Preliminary. 2 Data prior to 1998 are for Refined (Denatured), in Tanks in New York Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Average Price of Canola in Vancouver Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Canadian Dollars Per Metric Ton
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
416.48 402.74 286.09 279.07 329.23 396.78 345.51 261.56
428.88 368.17 277.92 285.05 328.38 380.81 370.53 250.02
434.68 363.24 280.97 302.04 329.39 351.97 402.02 270.29
441.44 362.16 287.34 299.59 316.74 362.89 395.92 273.13
450.56 353.21 284.59 310.00 318.67 344.59 384.09 275.58
443.11 356.53 274.12 320.79 330.21 333.48 378.62 286.78
404.86 317.36 265.32 356.98 369.42 322.64 360.93 279.45
387.05 305.73 262.24 368.33 401.78 319.37 349.57 259.58
389.34 302.93 269.17 351.01 408.43 324.07 341.29 240.30
400.40 302.68 265.32 332.16 413.64 338.93 288.64 235.00
412.17 297.76 267.75 328.99 436.25 343.65 275.37 233.21
417.41 287.62 278.59 334.53 418.74 338.57 265.15 226.39
418.87 335.01 274.95 322.38 366.74 346.48 346.47 257.61
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Average Wholesale Price of Canola Meal, 36% Pacific Northw est
In Dollars Per Short Ton
Crop Year
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
------122.58 142.85 131.50 169.65 133.39 130.13
------132.30 142.44 134.70 187.19 138.81 139.55
------142.34 129.48 142.17 181.35 135.13 158.06
------140.53 135.34 154.10 201.07 129.21 150.05
------132.90 137.33 155.80 205.50 139.55
------132.01 150.15 147.55 228.65 146.08
------140.25 146.60 145.60 214.40 140.85
------144.00 141.90 148.50 200.03 139.25
------149.30 142.10 146.95 189.00 153.98
------154.29 153.40 137.10 192.09 150.48
------142.60 149.10 135.50 146.99 138.12
------137.27 149.30 149.20 145.55 132.10
112.28 117.07 139.20 143.33 144.06 188.46 139.75 144.45
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
19
Cassava Cassava is a perennial woody shrub with an edible root. Cassava, which is also called manioc, mandioca, or yucca, grows in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Cassava has been known since the 1500s and originates in Latin America. The cassava’s starchy roots are a major source of dietary energy for more than 500 million people. Cassava is the highest producer of carbohydrates among staple crops, and it ranks fourth in food crops in developing countries. The leaves of the cassava plant are also edible and are relatively rich in protein and vitamins A and B. Cassava is drought-tolerant and needs less soil preparation and weeding than other crops. Because cassava can be stored in the ground for up to 3 years, it also serves as a reserve food when other crops fail. The cassava is propagated by cuttings of the woody stem, thereby resulting in a low multiplication rate compared to crops propagated by true seeds. One problem with cassava is the poisonous cyanides, which need to be destroyed before consumption. The cyanide content differs with each variety of cassava, but higher cyanide is usually correlated to high yields. The cyanide content can be destroyed through heat and various processing methods such as grating, sun drying, and fermenting.
World Cassava Production
1
Prices – The price of tapioca (hard pellets, FOB Rotterdam) rose by 17% in 2004 to an 8-year high of $128 per metric ton from $110 per metric ton in 2003. The 2004 price was 56% higher than the trough of $82 in 2001. Supply – World production of cassava in 2002, the latest full reporting year for that series, rose by +0.9% to 184.853 million metric tons from 183.289 million in 2001. The world’s largest producers of cassava in 2002 were Nigeria (with 18.7% of world production), Brazil (12.5%), Thailand (9.1%), and Indonesia (9.0%). Trade – World exports of tapioca in 2003 rose +33% to 4.717 million metric tons from 3.555 million in 2002. Thailand accounted for 85% of world exports in 2003, followed by Vietnam with 13% of world exports and Indonesia with 1%. The world’s two main importers of tapioca in 2003 were China with 51% of world imports and the European Union with 40% of world imports.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
China
Ghana
India
Indonesia
Mozambique
Nigeria
Paraguay
Tanzania
Thailand
Uganda
Dem. Rep. Congo2
World Total
25,423 24,584 24,305 19,503 20,864 23,336 22,479 23,108
3,501 3,601 3,651 3,701 3,751 3,801 3,851 3,851
6,612 7,111 7,000 7,227 7,845 8,107 8,966 9,731
5,929 5,443 5,868 6,000 6,700 6,800 6,900 6,900
15,442 17,002 15,134 14,696 16,438 16,089 17,055 16,723
4,178 4,734 5,337 5,639 5,353 5,362 5,400 5,400
31,404 31,418 30,409 32,695 32,697 32,010 32,586 34,476
3,054 2,648 3,155 3,300 3,694 2,719 3,568 4,142
5,969 5,992 5,700 6,128 7,182 7,120 6,884 6,888
17,388 17,388 18,084 15,591 16,507 19,064 18,396 16,870
2,224 2,245 2,291 3,204 4,875 4,966 5,265 5,300
17,500 18,000 16,973 17,060 16,500 15,959 15,436 14,929
165,436 164,711 164,373 162,856 171,918 178,567 183,289 184,853
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
Cassava is the primary source of tapioca. Cassava is also eaten raw or boiled, and is processed into livestock feed, starch and glucose, flour, and pharmaceuticals. One species of cassava has been successfully grown for its rubber.
Estimate.
2
Formerly Zaire.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Prices of Tapioca, Hard Pellets, F.O.B. Rotterdam
U.S. Dollars Per Tonne
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
133 96 104 94 83 86 91 138 147
118 100 102 90 80 82 92 132 149
112 98 101 88 77 82 95 121 153
108 104 102 92 78 84 96 118 145
114 106 108 85 80 87 101 117
110 104 104 88 82 91 101 118
100 105 99 88 84 96 103 120
97 106 102 81 84 97 108 122
100 112 100 78 87 95 114 128
102 122 99 74 83 93 134 134
102 124 100 76 84 93 138 139
100 109 97 79 84 89 143 148
108 107 102 84 82 90 110 128 149
Source: The Oil World
World Trade in Tapioca
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------ Exports -----------------------Year
China
Indonesia
Thailand
Viet Nam
Total World Exports
4 5 7 7 9 12 14 17
247 221 340 151 177 130 42 234
4,155 3,199 4,341 3,915 4,494 3,067 3,994 4,579
68 87 117 215 409 308 681 730
4,519 3,555 4,857 4,334 5,140 3,556 4,770 5,603
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
Estimate.
20
2
I ntra-EU trade is excluded.
Source: The Oil World
------------------------------------------- Imports ------------------------------------------Rep. of United Former Ja p a n Korea States USSR China EC-122
242 250 381 170 1,950 1,760 2,368 3,442
3,413 2,620 3,781 3,765 2,154 1,560 1,869 2,075
15 19 18 19 20 14 21 30
585 463 212 292 445 157 247 460
57 11 1 12 17 10 6 12
20 18 18 20 19 19 19 19
Total World Imports
4,605 3,536 4,501 4,543 4,714 3,588 4,646 6,140
Castor Beans Castor bean plants are native to the Ethiopian region of tropical east Africa. The seeds of the castor bean are used to produce castor oil. The average castor bean seed contains 35% to 55% oil. The oil is removed from the bean seeds by either pressing or solvent extraction. Castor oil is used in many products. In the US, the paint and varnish industry is the single largest market for castor oil. Castor oil is also used for coating fabrics, insulation, cosmetics, skin emollients, hair oils, inks, nylon plastics, greases, and hydraulic fluids.
envelope in February 2004. One non-deadly use for ricin is for medical research where it is being studied for use as a potential treatment for cancer. Supply – World production of castor-seed beans in the 2003/04 marketing year (the latest data available) rose by +12.6% to 1.080 million metric tons from the 16-year low of 959,000 metric tons in 2002/03. The world’s largest producer of castor-seed beans by far is India with 62% of world production in 2003 at 670,000 metric tons. The second and third largest producers are China with 24% of world production (258,000 metric tons) and Brazil with 7% of world production (78,000 metric tons).
Ricin is found in all parts of the castor bean plant, but the most concentrated amounts are found in the cake byproduct after oil extraction. Ricin is one of the most deadly, naturally occurring poisons known. Ricin received attention when it was used in a subway attack in Japan in 1995 and again when it was sent to a Congressional office in an
World Production of Castorseed Beans Crop Year
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
China
Ecuador
India
Mexico
Paraguay
Pakistan
Philippines
Sudan
Tanzania
Thailand
Former U.S.S.R.
World Total
17 33 116 100 72 78 150
230 250 300 260 265 258 250
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
840 910 867 610 640 690 853
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
19 8 11 13 7 11 11
6 3 1 2 1 8 8
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 3 3 3 3 3 3
7 7 9 9 9 9 9
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1,168 1,261 1,353 1,043 1,043 1,107 1,334
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Sources: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S.Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA); The Oil World
Castor Oil Consumption2 in the United States Year
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Demand – US consumption of castor oil in 2004/05 fell by –9% to 21.484 million pounds. It is estimated to fall another –22% in 2005/06 to 16.668 million pounds.
In Thousands of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
4,281 2,694 4,127 3,281 2,072 2,155 1,389
3,917 4,601 2,346 1,887 1,836 1,391 1,761
4,682 2,386 1,650 1,528 1,779 1,581 1,654
3,819 3,975 3,012 1,641 1,526 1,365
4,328 2,896 3,703 1,642 1,251 1,915
5,346 3,209 3,129 1,629 2,241 1,992
4,135 3,159 3,062 1,123 2,396 2,175
3,341 3,840 3,096 1,315 2,250 2,211
4,268 3,112 1,243 1,518 1,905 1,827
3,884 3,050 2,992 1,839 1,542 1,689
4,257 4,686 2,872 1,449 2,382 2,021
4,573 2,257 2,867 2,119 2,366 1,162
50,831 39,865 34,099 20,971 23,546 21,484 19,216
Preliminary.
2
I n inedible products (Resins, Plastics, etc.).
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Castor Oil Stocks in the United States, on First of Month Year
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
In Thousands of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
44,427 32,585 53,083 41,322 26,463 34,525 38,357
34,180 35,858 45,933 37,282 17,753 31,608 45,720
31,191 30,058 23,973 33,195 16,630 24,287 37,111
44,315 24,728 38,459 32,983 18,582 19,476 29,428
36,632 32,566 31,058 25,926 14,097 32,641
26,885 35,186 36,743 20,551 13,985 25,318
25,486 24,808 39,591 22,460 7,507 27,876
27,605 51,808 39,528 15,337 22,751 19,098
39,038 57,910 43,227 23,212 W 31,493
38,118 48,415 50,814 24,138 25,593 22,919
42,934 40,279 49,283 32,110 18,381 15,963
31,015 59,461 53,075 27,827 14,922 35,604
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Wholesale Price of Castor Oil No. 1, Braz ilian Tanks in New York Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00
48.00 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00
48.00 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 47.00
48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 47.00
48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 47.00
48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 47.00
48.00 48.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00 47.00
48.00 48.00 48.00 47.50 47.00 47.00 48.00
45.29 48.00 47.42 47.92 47.25 47.00 47.08
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
21
Cattle and Calves The beef cycle begins with the cow-calf operation, which breeds the new calves. Most ranchers breed their herds of cows in summer, thus producing the new crop of calves in spring (the gestation period is about nine months). This allows the calves to be born during the milder weather of spring and provides the calves with ample forage through the summer and early autumn. The calves are weaned from the mother after 6-8 months and most are then moved into the “stocker” operation. The calves usually spend 6-10 months in the stocker operation, growing to near full-sized by foraging for summer grass or winter wheat. When the cattle reach 600-800 pounds, they are typically sent to a feedlot and become “feeder cattle.” In the feedlot, the cattle are fed a special food mix to encourage rapid weight gain. The mix includes grain (corn, milo, or wheat), a protein supplement (soybean, cottonseed, or linseed meal), and roughage (alfalfa, silage, prairie hay, or an agricultural by-product such as sugar beet pulp). The animal is considered “finished” when it reaches full weight and is ready for slaughter, typically at around 1,200 pounds, which produces a dressed carcass of around 745 pounds. After reaching full weight, the cattle are sold for slaughter to a meat packing plant. Futures and options on live cattle and feeder cattle are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Both the live and feeder cattle futures contracts trade in terms of cents per pound. Prices – Live cattle futures prices in 2005 faded in the first half of the year but then rallied in the latter half of the year to close the year at a 2-year high of 92.45 cents per pound, up 2.9% yr/yr. Prices faded early in the year on the continued ban on US beef exports, which started in December 2003 when a Washington state dairy farm was found to have mad cow disease. In addition, the US in July dropped its ban on the import of live cattle from Canada, causing an influx of new supply. However, cattle prices were able to recover in the latter half of 2005 because of continued strong US domestic demand and anticipation of the ban on US exports being lifted by the end of the year. In fact, the Japanese government on December 12, 2005 finally lifted its ban on US beef for cattle under 20 months old, thus reopening the largest foreign market for US beef. South Korea, Hong
World Cattle and Buffalo Numbers as of January 1 Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 20062 1
Argentina
51,696 49,238 49,437 49,832 50,167 50,369 50,869 50,768 49,567 49,366
Preliminary.
22
2
Australia
Brazil
Canada
26,780 146,110 26,710 144,670 26,688 143,893 27,588 146,272 27,720 150,382 27,870 156,314 27,870 161,463 26,640 165,492 27,100 169,567 27,600 174,401
13,412 13,360 13,211 13,201 13,608 13,762 13,488 14,660 15,083 15,125
Forecast.
European China Union
110,318 121,757 124,354 126,983 128,663 128,242 130,848 134,672 137,818 140,383
84,526 83,271 94,570 93,772 91,419 90,339 88,719 87,478 86,674 85,900
Kong and South Korea followed suit soon thereafter and dropped their bans on US beef from cattle under 30 months old. Supply – The world cattle and buffalo figures showed a small +0.2% increase in 2005 (as of Jan 1) to 1.024 billion head, which is just slightly above the 4-decade low of 1.014 billion head seen in 2003. As of January 1, 2005 there were 95.848 million cattle and calves on US farms, up +1.0% y/yr and slightly above 94.888 million in 2004, which was the lowest level since 1959. World production of beef and veal in 2005 rose +1.3% to 51.978 million metric tons (carcass weight equivalent). The world’s largest beef producers are the US with 11.320 million metric tons of production in 2005, followed by Brazil (8.355 million metric tons), the European Union (7.825 million metric tons), and China (7.180 million metric tons). US commercial production of beef in 2005 rose by +2.6% to 25.197 billion pounds, recovering from the 11year low of 24.498 billion pounds in 2004. Demand – World consumption of beef and veal in 2005 rose slightly by +0.8% yr/yr to 50.135 million metric tons. US consumption of beef and veal in 2005 rose +0.6% yr/yr to 12.746 million metric tons. The other key consumers of beef are the European Union (8.190 million metric tons in 2005), China (7.111 million metric tons), and Brazil (6.600 million metric tons). Trade – US imports of live cattle in 2005 rose by +9.2% to 1.500 million head, but remained well below levels seen before mad cow caused the US to close the Canadian border to live cattle in 2003. US exports of live cattle in 2005 fell by –29% yr/yr to a multi-decade low of 21,992 head due to cattle trading bans by key US trading partners. By weight, US imports of beef in 2005 rose +0.6% yr/yr to 3.701 billion pounds, which was a record high. US exports of beef in 2005 rose +33% to 615 million pounds, but remained far below the levels near 2.5 billion pounds seen before mad cow hit in December 2003 and largely shut down US beef exports. The key countries to which the US normally exports its beef are Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada.
In Thousands of Head India
Mexico
Russia
South Africa
299,802 303,030 306,967 312,572 313,774 317,000 323,000 327,250 330,250 332,200
28,601 29,051 29,246 28,313 28,449 28,481 29,224 28,437 27,572 26,997
35,800 31,500 28,600 27,000 25,500 24,510 23,500 22,285 21,100 19,850
14,067 13,667 13,772 13,580 13,460 13,505 13,635 13,540 13,510 13,680
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Ukraine
15,313 12,579 11,722 10,627 9,424 9,433 9,108 7,712 6,992 6,712
World Total United States (Mil. Head)
101,656 99,744 99,115 98,199 97,298 96,723 96,100 94,888 95,848 97,882
1,047.0 1,045.9 1,049.6 1,054.0 1,049.0 1,057.9 1,026.6 1,031.1 1,035.7 1,044.7
CATTLE AND CALVES Cattle Supply and Distribution in the United States
Year
Imports
Calves Born
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
103,548 101,656 99,744 99,115 98,198 97,277 96,704 96,100 94,888 95,848
1,965 2,046 2,034 1,945 2,187 2,437 2,503 1,752 1,374 1,826
39,823 38,961 38,812 38,796 38,631 38,280 38,224 37,903 37,625 37,800
1
Preliminary.
2
In Thousands of Head
------------ Livestock Slaughter - Cattle and Calves ------------
Cattle & Calves on Farms January 1
Estimate.
3
---------------- Commercial ---------------Total Federally All Supply Inspected Other3 Commercial
145,336 142,663 140,590 139,856 139,016 137,994 137,431 135,754 133,887 135,474
Wholesale and retail.
37,436 37,101 36,209 36,738 36,720 35,751 36,139 35,883 32,979 32,550
917 792 714 695 658 625 641 611 592 565
38,351 37,893 36,923 37,432 37,378 36,377 36,780 36,494 33,571 33,114
Farm
224 218 215 210 210 200 190 192 189 184
Total Deaths Slaughter on Farms
38,575 38,111 37,138 37,642 37,588 36,577 36,970 36,686 33,760 33,306
Exports
4,572 4,676 4,210 4,114 4,097 4,209 4,076 4,030 4,003
174 282 285 329 481 678 243 100 31 21
Total D i sa p pearance
43,321 43,069 41,633 42,085 42,166 41,464 41,289 40,816 37,794
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Beef Supply and Utiliz ation in the United States Year/ Quarter
Total - Per Capita Disappearance --------- Production ---------Beginning Total Ending Carcass Retail D i sa p Stocks Commercial Total Imports Supply Exports Stocks Weight Weight pearance ------------------------------------------------------------------- Million Pounds ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------- Pounds --------------
2001
26,107 6,182 6,502 6,723 6,700 27,090 6,377 6,833 7,097 6,783 26,238 6,282 6,902 7,081 5,973 24,548 5,838 6,253 6,360 6,097 24,695 5,727 6,192 6,566 6,210
I II III IV 2002 I II III IV 2003 I II III IV 2004 I II III IV 2 0 0 51 I II III IV 1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
26,107 6,182 6,502 6,723 6,700 27,090 6,377 6,833 7,097 6,783 26,238 6,282 6,902 7,081 5,973 24,548 5,838 6,253 6,360 6,097 24,695 5,727 6,192 6,566 6,210
3,164 785 839 848 689 3,218 737 934 839 708 3,006 810 741 619 836 3,679 873 929 940 937 3,567 831 1,065 906 765
2002 I II III IV 2003 I II III IV 1
Preliminary.
2,269 569 509 583 610 2,447 572 601 662 612 2,518 582 678 680 578 461 36 120 138 167 644 130 189 150 175
66.2 16.1 16.8 17.0 16.3 67.6 16.2 17.5 17.3 16.6 64.9 16.2 16.9 16.9 15.0 66.1 16.0 16.9 16.9 16.3 65.4 15.6 16.8 17.0 16.0
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
United States Cattle on Feed in 13 States Year/ Quarter
29,268 6,967 7,341 7,571 7,389 30,308 7,114 7,767 7,936 7,491 29,244 7,092 7,643 7,700 6,809 28,227 6,711 7,182 7,300 7,034 28,262 6,558 7,257 7,472 6,975
In Thousands of Head
Number on F eed3
Placed on F eed
Marketings
Other Disappearance
Year/ Quarter
Number on F eed3
Placed on F eed
Marketings
Other Disappearance
11,565 11,565 11,587 10,507 10,452 10,658 10,658 10,713 9,923 10,218
23,576 5,952 5,374 6,262 5,988 24,930 5,771 5,849 6,855 6,455
23,637 5,709 6,243 6,176 5,509 23,467 5,508 6,450 6,377 5,132
846 221 211 141 273 868 208 189 183 288
20041 I II III IV 20052 I II III IV
11,253 11,253 10,763 10,132 10,502 11,299 11,299 10,870 10,402 10,482
23,267 5,176 5,617 6,196 6,278 23,556 5,161 5,652 6,026 6,717
22,849 5,436 6,002 6,196 5,215 22,171 5,369 5,881 5,766 5,155
917 230 246 175 266 878 219 249 170 240
2
Estimate.
3
Beginning of period.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
23
CATTLE AND CALVES
Cents Per Pound ----- All Grades, Chicago (Jan. 1909 - Dec. 1947) Good, Chicago (Jan. 1948 - Dec. 1964) Choice, Chicago (Jan. 1965 - July 1971) Choice, Average, Omaha (Aug. 1971 - Aug. 1987) Average, Texas-Oklahoma (Sept. 1987 - date)
United States Cattle on Feed, 1000+ Capacity Feedlots2, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
8,667 8,943 9,455 9,021 9,752 11,798 11,565 10,658 11,253 11,299
8,304 8,813 9,180 8,917 9,885 11,941 11,572 10,700 11,138 11,342
8,152 8,769 8,835 8,878 9,695 11,695 11,518 10,546 10,987 11,154
8,286 8,904 8,607 8,899 9,593 11,523 11,587 10,713 10,763 10,870
7,758 8,484 8,295 8,583 9,391 11,170 10,971 10,535 10,375 10,639
7,253 8,231 8,289 8,547 9,411 11,245 10,990 10,539 10,640 10,769
6,578 7,679 7,825 8,183 8,959 11,011 10,507 9,923 10,132 10,402
6,337 7,536 7,706 7,889 8,812 10,891 10,109 9,590 9,868 10,092
6,612 7,850 7,750 8,185 8,972 10,855 10,159 9,839 9,988 10,000
7,486 8,558 8,376 8,793 9,502 11,125 10,452 10,218 10,502 10,482
8,534 9,390 9,190 9,789 10,192 11,863 10,785 11,043 11,334 11,473
9,003 9,718 9,404 10,020 10,213 11,891 10,946 11,335 11,334 11,726
Preliminary.
2
7 States through 2000.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
United States Cattle Placed on Feed, 1000+ Capacity Feedlots2 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Head
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,312 1,663 1,492 1,681 1,931 2,263 2,179 2,089 1,754 1,888
1,441 1,552 1,290 1,563 1,606 1,580 1,810 1,650 1,612 1,523
1,666 1,694 1,421 1,741 1,736 1,842 1,963 2,032 1,810 1,750
1,150 1,296 1,358 1,443 1,470 1,551 1,463 1,870 1,600 1,660
1,242 1,612 1,740 1,733 1,998 2,372 2,267 2,307 2,370 2,223
1,068 1,224 1,314 1,515 1,413 1,965 1,644 1,672 1,647 1,769
1,483 1,751 1,677 1,565 1,674 1,986 1,840 1,997 1,719 1,678
1,965 2,111 1,773 2,085 2,091 2,204 2,228 2,384 2,102 1,993
2,267 2,278 2,254 2,345 2,286 2,141 2,194 2,474 2,375 2,355
2,536 2,454 2,396 2,629 2,387 2,702 2,396 2,781 2,701 2,788
1,953 1,826 1,732 1,823 1,678 1,908 1,982 1,926 1,743 2,045
1,423 1,304 1,250 1,408 1,440 1,578 1,610 1,748 1,834 1,884
19,506 20,765 19,697 21,531 21,710 24,092 23,576 24,930 23,267 23,556
Preliminary.
24
In Thousands of Head
2
7 States through 2000.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
CATTLE AND CALVES
United States Cattle Marketings, 1000+ Capacity Feedlots2 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,626 1,728 1,689 1,738 1,747 2,042 2,083 1,972 1,775 1,772
1,541 1,554 1,579 1,560 1,749 1,745 1,801 1,733 1,694 1,634
1,476 1,497 1,580 1,668 1,764 1,916 1,825 1,803 1,967 1,963
1,613 1,648 1,609 1,681 1,601 1,815 1,996 1,985 1,891 1,801
1,747 1,785 1,681 1,696 1,863 2,196 2,171 2,238 2,026 1,997
1,696 1,732 1,727 1,835 1,828 2,122 2,076 2,227 2,085 2,083
1,678 1,852 1,755 1,816 1,784 2,047 2,193 2,270 1,925 1,918
1,653 1,755 1,687 1,747 1,895 2,186 2,135 2,075 1,926 2,032
1,342 1,528 1,577 1,682 1,708 1,825 1,848 2,032 1,800 1,816
1,431 1,545 1,537 1,570 1,647 1,896 1,979 1,855 1,803 1,739
1,418 1,429 1,455 1,530 1,568 1,800 1,731 1,537 1,635 1,701
1,415 1,499 1,564 1,601 1,500 1,811 1,799 1,740 1,777 1,715
18,636 19,552 19,440 20,124 20,654 23,401 23,637 23,467 22,304 22,171
Preliminary.
2
7 States through 2000.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Quarterly Trade of Live Cattle in the United States
1
In Head
---------------------------------------- Imports ---------------------------------------First Second Third Fourth Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Annual
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2 0 0 51
In Thousands of Head
605,648 494,637 538,018 549,847 580,174 700,239 785,559 630,303 309,712 335,687
Preliminary.
467,059 500,052 503,547 424,182 537,009 612,645 398,072 408,833 315,800 348,897
391,633 423,838 373,451 313,211 346,087 444,637 474,128 142,780 281,020 341,834
501,108 627,825 618,993 657,836 724,016 679,194 845,214 569,669 467,236 799,640
1,965,448 2,046,352 2,034,009 1,945,076 2,187,286 2,436,715 2,502,973 1,751,585 1,373,768 1,826,058
---------------------------------------- Exports ---------------------------------------First Second Third Fourth Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Annual
33,906 63,217 69,824 51,830 117,889 111,549 73,401 38,246 4,091 5,128
42,796 58,153 63,459 59,195 67,895 75,152 62,140 34,145 20,955 6,446
42,757 81,095 53,145 47,049 72,028 297,069 49,930 10,953 2,216 5,977
54,848 79,879 98,781 171,245 223,430 194,683 57,472 16,926 3,652 3,780
174,307 282,344 285,209 329,319 481,242 678,453 242,943 100,270 30,914 21,331
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
25
CATTLE AND CALVES
Cents Per Pound ----- Oklahoma City (Jan. 1971 - date)
Average Slaughter Steer Price, Choice 2-4, Texas, 1100-1300 Lb. Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
61.46 69.07 78.79 67.25 77.18 80.36 87.77
63.17 68.88 79.40 70.72 78.77 79.15 87.73
64.75 71.74 79.44 72.59 77.52 86.96 91.78
65.34 73.13 76.50 67.79 79.24 87.04 91.98
65.00 71.28 74.93 65.32 79.50 88.22 88.83
66.15 69.41 72.64 63.64 76.73 89.19 83.06
64.51 67.22 70.71 62.49 76.89 84.27 79.37
65.29 65.02 69.07 62.96 81.74 84.15 80.80
66.05 65.43 68.75 64.43 90.59 82.33 85.19
69.63 68.51 66.30 64.93 105.50 84.03 87.40
70.28 72.19 63.60 70.12 101.88 84.64 90.32
69.01 76.41 63.62 72.24 90.75 86.60 93.08
65.89 69.86 71.98 67.04 84.69 84.75 87.28
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price of Feeder Steers in Oklahoma City Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2004
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
96.49 93.08 92.43 87.76 79.35 112.40 79.35
97.21 86.63 93.66 88.84 80.18 116.87 80.18
101.16 94.17 94.06 91.31 107.35 120.48 107.35
99.01 105.06 91.76 92.94 109.99 126.77 109.99
95.88 99.71 90.78 93.58 115.40 127.13 115.40
97.01 102.16 85.68 96.04 121.10 126.91 121.10
102.11 100.39 83.29 99.28 124.63 122.73 124.63
99.05 96.74 85.19 99.15 124.65 119.96 124.65
93.41 98.31 84.71 102.68 116.97 119.61 116.97
90.84 91.06 84.23 102.63 116.96 120.29 116.96
96.19 90.83 85.69 106.87 117.13 122.84 117.13
97.40 94.51 89.43 98.09 113.01 122.75 113.01
97.15 96.05 88.41 96.60 110.56 121.56 110.56
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Federally Inspected Slaughter of Cattle in the United States Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
2,904 2,878 2,947 2,999 2,950 2,527 2,477
2,665 2,883 2,533 2,564 2,519 2,381 2,297
2,990 3,078 2,867 2,688 2,725 2,818 2,674
2,916 2,735 2,667 2,899 2,918 2,654 2,517
2,947 3,128 3,152 3,098 3,201 2,792 2,751
3,154 3,191 3,075 3,017 3,208 2,949 2,893
3,037 2,918 2,898 3,141 3,245 2,745 2,677
3,099 3,211 3,193 3,163 3,094 2,775 2,948
3,045 2,984 2,758 2,816 3,082 2,689 2,731
3,033 3,082 3,103 3,205 2,953 2,693 2,625
2,882 2,879 2,854 2,812 2,387 2,492 2,623
2,814 2,665 2,726 2,719 2,626 2,642 2,619
35,486 35,631 34,771 35,120 34,907 32,156 31,832
Preliminary.
26
In Thousands of Head
Jan.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
CATTLE AND CALVES
Average Open Interest of Live Cattle Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
72,870 97,014 105,559 115,254 128,918 132,298 93,589 111,874 98,752 142,333
83,064 103,437 102,036 115,283 123,980 132,866 91,566 105,882 99,491 140,869
91,348 108,157 101,264 115,410 123,925 131,312 98,176 98,943 112,449 146,062
97,315 98,354 88,257 104,482 122,596 123,075 98,343 96,875 124,930 141,610
97,911 99,640 88,167 103,290 117,834 112,180 98,846 107,193 128,727 145,235
96,320 96,279 87,493 101,078 106,196 114,970 91,129 111,397 126,481 133,768
96,547 99,042 86,776 96,843 116,266 116,162 93,541 113,324 114,656 135,971
93,557 98,590 86,874 101,858 120,526 105,252 92,966 115,417 109,588 134,329
92,804 94,137 95,013 121,305 123,945 114,214 109,651 130,836 104,928 148,094
88,467 93,579 102,636 123,466 123,517 109,677 111,338 124,525 109,832 167,175
88,062 100,368 108,263 126,040 131,773 108,574 121,671 113,224 112,709 174,496
87,305 102,741 106,156 120,204 132,239 95,182 116,588 106,522 123,483 197,090
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Live Cattle Futures Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
312,018 361,620 355,728 298,814 347,290 511,050 331,026 378,862 362,295 519,794
275,399 352,173 400,210 342,572 323,524 357,474 275,699 343,931 265,370 395,847
333,200 312,113 327,169 338,076 356,258 385,581 387,115 334,007 442,636 598,171
457,536 331,948 400,584 320,457 236,494 302,829 448,508 306,713 353,886 377,494
385,875 285,885 296,651 296,512 302,001 348,294 304,900 391,477 419,888 503,753
303,091 303,369 321,370 342,854 244,755 289,093 247,940 311,239 345,611 405,687
319,815 387,526 334,424 287,557 248,377 318,564 286,248 449,966 381,151 506,253
299,498 324,943 369,604 266,544 293,450 324,614 288,525 319,677 340,973 406,010
278,083 316,822 370,282 371,735 277,913 340,969 314,927 473,218 382,536 569,040
339,419 374,632 373,207 345,269 293,972 403,101 352,487 469,405 344,517 438,631
312,577 238,003 318,152 375,960 397,879 403,009 315,658 324,732 511,516 627,585
309,681 330,608 349,125 253,198 359,599 294,695 298,703 332,862 359,749 485,291
3,926,192 3,919,642 4,216,506 3,839,548 3,681,512 4,279,273 3,851,736 4,436,089 4,510,128 5,833,556
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
27
CATTLE AND CALVES Beef Steer-Corn Price Ratio in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
25.8 30.2 37.5 40.1 36.1 33.4 35.7 44.5
24.8 31.0 35.9 40.2 38.1 33.4 31.5 47.7
25.2 31.8 36.2 41.1 38.2 32.9 32.0 47.3
27.5 32.4 37.0 42.1 37.0 33.7 30.8 49.2
28.3 32.8 34.7 42.5 35.3 33.4 32.3 48.4
28.3 33.9 37.4 43.6 34.0 33.6 33.6 45.3
27.9 37.5 42.9 40.1 31.2 36.4 36.4 41.9
31.6 37.8 44.7 38.7 28.3 38.6 38.9 45.0
32.2 38.3 42.6 37.7 27.4 40.6 40.7 48.6
32.1 41.5 40.5 38.1 29.3 46.1 42.6 53.1
32.3 41.7 39.7 36.6 31.5 45.4 44.0 55.0
30.0 38.9 39.0 34.6 32.3 41.4 45.0 52.0
28.8 35.7 39.0 39.6 33.2 37.4 37.0 48.2
1 Bushels of corn equal in value to 100 pounds of steers and heifers. U.S. Department of Agriculture
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service,
Farm Value, Income and Wholesale Prices of Cattle and Calves in the United States ----- January 1 ----Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
Per Head Dollars
Total Million $
594 683 725 747 728 818 916
58,834 67,099 70,495 72,284 69,949 77,595 87,821
Gross Income From C & C2 Million $
36,861 41,078 40,903 38,429 45,465
Cows, Cows, F eeder Wholesale Prices, Central U.S. Boning ComHeifers at ------- Steers3 ------- ------ Heifers4 ------ Oklahoma Utility mercial Choice Select Cow6, City5 Sioux Falls6 Sioux Falls 700-850 lb. 700-850 lb. Canner7 Choice Select Select Choice ------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars per 100 Pounds ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ At Oham a-------------------
65.64 69.52 67.68 66.39 82.37 84.78
65.68 69.55 67.81 67.39 82.06 84.40
71.90 82.23 84.19 76.70 85.88 100.09 106.87
38.40 41.71 44.39 40.47 49.74 55.20 55.52
40.61 44.45 52.20 39.63 46.62 52.35 54.36
110.91 117.45 122.17 113.59 143.20 141.33 145.78
103.07 108.83 114.42 107.66 130.07 132.65 136.36
1 Preliminary. 2 Excludes interfarm sales & Gov't. payments. Cash receipts from farm marketings + value of farm home consumption. 4 5 6 1,100 lb. 1,000 to 1,200 lb. 1992 to date are 700 to 750 lb., 1987 thru 1991 are 600 to 700 lb. All weights. 7 & Cutter. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Beef Cattle in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
3
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
62.50 59.00 67.80 74.80 67.10 73.20 80.90 89.40
60.40 60.60 67.60 74.70 70.00 73.90 78.50 88.80
61.30 62.40 69.80 76.00 70.60 72.60 83.70 91.30
63.00 62.70 71.30 75.40 67.30 74.50 85.00 94.00
63.00 62.10 69.40 73.60 65.10 75.50 88.50 92.40
61.80 63.70 68.50 73.60 64.00 74.90 89.80 88.50
58.40 62.60 67.50 71.80 63.70 75.80 88.10 85.30
57.40 63.50 65.50 70.60 64.40 79.30 87.70 84.50
56.10 63.80 65.30 69.00 64.50 84.90 85.90 88.20
58.00 66.20 66.70 66.50 64.60 91.50 86.50 91.10
58.10 66.20 69.10 64.00 67.30 93.40 85.40 91.30
56.80 66.60 71.90 64.80 70.40 90.40 86.80 93.60
59.70 63.28 68.37 71.23 66.58 79.99 85.57 89.87
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Calves in the United States
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
Year
1
1,000 to
Jan.
Preliminary.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
66.51 72.57 55.32 NA NA NA NA
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
86.60 83.20 103.00 108.00 102.00 96.80 110.00 125.00
88.70 86.90 105.00 109.00 105.00 97.20 111.00 129.00
89.80 87.30 109.00 112.00 105.00 96.70 115.00 135.00
90.80 88.20 111.00 112.00 101.00 98.90 117.00 140.00
88.90 87.60 107.00 111.00 99.50 100.00 121.00 141.00
81.70 89.00 104.00 110.00 96.50 101.00 125.00 138.00
76.60 89.20 106.00 108.00 92.40 102.00 130.00 132.00
76.90 89.60 106.00 106.00 94.90 106.00 131.00 131.00
74.10 90.90 103.00 107.00 92.40 109.00 128.00 133.00
75.70 91.90 102.00 99.70 92.00 112.00 126.00 134.00
77.50 93.00 106.00 96.70 91.90 111.00 123.00 133.00
80.20 98.60 106.00 101.00 95.30 112.00 122.00 134.00
82.30 89.62 105.67 106.70 97.33 103.55 121.58 133.75
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Federally Inspected Slaughter of Calves and Vealers in the United States
In Thousands of Head
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
125 103 91 89 86 92 77 66
111 98 92 77 71 81 70 61
125 115 97 82 76 83 75 67
107 95 75 72 80 77 69 60
99 87 86 77 76 74 63 57
115 102 91 75 74 72 65 58
131 109 92 81 94 83 67 57
122 115 98 92 94 78 71 64
132 117 91 77 87 80 66 60
121 102 95 91 98 85 61 54
109 100 91 85 88 76 66 55
127 110 90 82 96 95 73 59
1,422 1,252 1,088 981 1,019 976 823 718
1
Preliminary.
28
Source: Crop Reporting Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (CRB-USDA)
Cement Cement is made in a wide variety of compositions and is used in many different ways. The best-known cement is Portland cement, which is bound with sand and gravel to create concrete. Concrete is used to unite the surfaces of various materials and to coat surfaces to protect them from various chemicals. Portland cement is almost universally used for structural concrete. It is manufactured from lime-bearing materials, usually limestone, together with clays, blastfurnace slag containing alumina and silica or shale. The combination is usually approximately 60 percent lime, 19 percent silica, 8 percent alumina, 5 percent iron, 5 percent magnesia, and 3 percent sulfur trioxide. To slow the hardening process, gypsum is often added. In 1924, the name “Portland cement” was coined by Joseph Aspdin, a British cement maker, because of the resemblance between concrete made from his cement and Portland stone. The United States did not start producing Portland cement in any great quantity until the 20th century. Hydraulic cements are those that set and harden in water. Clinker cement is an intermediate product in cement manufacture. The production and consumption of cement is directly related to the level of activity in the construction industry.
World Production of Hydraulic Cement Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Prices – The average value (F.O.B. mill) of Portland cement in 2004 rose +6.0% yr/yr to $79.50 per ton, which is new record. Supply – World production of hydraulic cement in 2004 rose 5.4% yr/yr to a new record high of 2.130 billion metric tons. The world’s largest hydraulic cement producers are China with 44% of world production in 2004, India (6%), US (5%), and Japan (3%). US production of Portland cement in 2004 rose +4.9% yr/yr to a new record high of 92.424 million tons. US shipments of finished Portland cement from mills in the US in 2005 (through November, annualized) rose +3.3% to 98.056 million metric tons, which is a new record high. Demand – US consumption of cement in 2004 rose +6.9% to 121.910 million tons, which was a new record high. Trade – The US relied on imports for 25% of its cement consumption in 2005. The two main suppliers of cement to the US are Canada and Mexico. US exports of cement in 2003 fell –2.3% yr/yr to 818,000 tons.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Brazil
China
France
Germany
India
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Russia
Spain
Turkey
United States
World Total
38,096 39,942 40,270 39,208 38,927 38,027 34,010 38,000
511,730 536,000 573,000 597,000 661,040 725,000 862,080 933,690
19,780 19,500 20,219 20,137 19,839 19,450 19,660 20,960
35,945 36,610 35,912 35,414 32,118 31,009 32,349 31,954
80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 105,000 115,000 123,000 125,000
33,721 35,512 37,299 38,925 39,804 40,000 38,000 38,000
91,938 81,328 80,120 81,097 76,550 71,828 68,766 67,369
60,317 46,091 48,157 51,255 52,046 55,514 59,194 53,900
26,700 26,000 28,400 32,400 35,300 37,700 41,000 43,000
27,632 33,080 35,782 38,154 40,512 42,417 45,000 46,790
36,035 38,200 34,258 35,825 30,125 32,577 35,077 38,019
84,255 85,522 87,777 89,510 90,450 91,266 94,329 99,015
1,540,000 1,540,000 1,600,000 1,660,000 1,750,000 1,850,000 2,020,000 2,130,000
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Cement in the United States
Year
Net Import Average Capacity Reliance Shipments Imports for Consumption5 Apparent Value Stocks Used at as a % of ----------- Production -------------- From Mills ---Con- -------------------- by Country --------------------(F.O.B. at Mills (Portland Apparent 3 Total Total Mill) $ Dec. 31 Exports sumption Canada Japan Mexico Spain Mills) Con- Portland Others Total Value4 % sumption ------ 1,000 Metric Tons -----Mil. MT Mil. $ per MT ----- 1,000 Metric Tons ----- --------------- 1,000 Metric Tons ----------------
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
14 19 23 20 21 19 20 23
78,948 79,942 81,577 83,514 84,450 85,283 88,106 92,424
3,634 3,989 4,375 4,332 4,450 4,449 4,737 5,010
82,582 83,931 85,952 87,846 88,900 89,732 92,843 97,434
84.7 84.9 83.6 80.7 79.1 78.7 78.5 81.6
90,359 96,857 103,271 105,557 113,136 108,778 112,929 120,731
6,637 7,404 8,083 8,293 8,600 8,250 8,340 9,540
73.46 76.45 78.27 78.56 76.50 76.00 75.00 79.50
5,784 5,393 6,367 7,566 6,600 7,680 6,610 6,710
791 743 694 738 746 834 837 818
96,018 103,460 108,862 110,470 112,810 110,020 114,090 121,910
5,350 5,957 5,511 4,948 5,110 5,181 6,319 5,753
995 1,280 1,286 1,409 1,645 1,228 891 1,439
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Masonry, natural & pozzolan (slag-line). 4 Value received F.O.B. mill, excluding cost of containers. clinker cement for consumption. 6 Less than 1/2 unit. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Shipments of Finished Portland Cement from Mills in the United States Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
5
1,845 2,204 1,900 1,177 651 327 355 412
17,596 24,086 29,351 28,683 25,861 24,169 23,959 27,305
Hydraulic &
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
4,487.3 4,765.5 5,107.6 5,554.3 5,485.6 5,240.7 5,399.9
5,132.9 5,343.1 5,088.8 5,369.3 4,559.9 5,145.5 5,967.0
6,380.5 7,196.9 6,684.5 6,133.9 6,482.6 8,059.2 7,551.5
7,112.2 6,930.2 7,799.4 7,859.7 8,008.5 8,837.4 8,345.2
7,406.9 8,448.2 8,507.9 8,291.4 8,288.4 8,623.8 9,132.7
8,096.9 8,391.5 8,385.8 8,135.6 8,492.2 9,103.2 9,623.7
7,782.2 7,843.8 8,333.2 8,466.9 9,063.8 9,134.3 8,333.2
8,173.2 8,982.3 8,851.2 8,676.2 8,829.1 9,325.6 9,639.3
7,652.7 7,860.8 7,512.2 7,909.7 8,755.3 8,883.4 8,883.3
8,204.2 8,474.2 8,953.3 8,326.1 9,780.8 8,608.9 8,906.6
7,453.4 6,587.0 7,353.3 6,956.3 6,987.5 7,417.2 8,101.9
5,959.1 4,865.5 5,548.0 5,293.4 6,348.3 6,528.4
83,841.5 84,980.3 88,124.9 86,972.9 91,081.9 94,907.6 98,055.7
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
29
Cheese Since prehistoric times, humans have been making and eating cheese. Dating back as far as 6,000 BC, archaeologists have discovered that cheese had been made from cow and goat milk and stored in tall jars. The Romans turned cheese making into a culinary art, mixing sheep and goat milk and adding herbs and spices for flavoring. By 300 AD, cheese was being exported regularly to countries along the Mediterranean coast.
mostly Italian, now have had a combined level of production that easily exceeds American cheeses.
Cheese is made from the milk of cows and other mammals such as sheep, goats, buffalo, reindeer, camels, yaks, and mares. More than 400 varieties of cheese exist. There are three basic steps common to all cheese making. First, proteins in milk are transformed into curds, or solid lumps. Second, the curds are separated from the milky liquid (or whey) and shaped or pressed into molds. Finally, the shaped curds are ripened according to a variety of aging and curing techniques. Cheeses are usually grouped according to their moisture content into fresh, soft, semi-soft, hard, and very hard. Many classifications overlap due to texture changes with aging.
Supply – World production of cheese in 2005 rose +1.9% yr/yr to 16.632 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The US and Europe are the world’s largest producers of cheese, and US production in 2005 accounted for 30% of world production. US production of cheese in 2004 (annualized through November) rose +2.3% to 9.076 billion pounds, which was a new record high.
Cheese is a multi-billion-dollar a year industry in the US. Cheddar cheese is the most common natural cheese produced in the US, accounting for 35% of US production. Cheeses originating in America include Colby, cream cheese, and Monterey Jack. Varieties other than American cheeses,
Trade – US imports of cheese in 2005 was unchanged from the 2004 level of 474 million pounds. US exports of cheese in 2005 was unchanged from the 2004 level of 128 million pounds, which was a record high.
Prices – Average monthly cheese prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 2005 (through June fell by –7.3% yr/yr to 152.95 cents per pound, down from 2004’s 23-year high of 165.03 cents per pound. The all time record monthly average high of 167.20 cents per pound was posted in 1981.
Demand – US consumption of cheese in 2004 fell –0.8% to 8.933 billion pounds. US per capita cheese consumption in 2002, the latest reporting year for this series, rose to 30.60 pounds per person per year to a new record high.
World Production of Cheese
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Egypt
European Union
Ja p a n
Mexico
Zealand
Russia
Ukraine
United States
World Total
390 415 407 446 445 440 370 325 370 400
268 285 305 320 373 374 413 368 389 376
385 405 421 434 445 460 470 460 470 480
289 329 330 329 328 329 350 342 305 307
325 370 380 382 380 395 410 450 455 460
4,841 5,047 5,291 5,711 5,861 5,865 5,993 6,100 6,430 6,515
33 34 35 35 34 34 36 35 35 37
110 112 127 126 134 140 145 126 134 136
230 240 266 245 297 281 312 301 308 300
173 165 170 185 220 260 340 335 350 355
60 45 52 53 67 105 129 169 224 270
3,274 3,325 3,398 3,581 3,746 3,747 3,877 3,881 4,026 4,145
11,705 11,100 11,518 12,016 12,499 12,602 13,019 13,013 13,561 13,847
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Supply and Distribution of All Cheese in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1 5
Cheese ---------------------------------- Supply ----------------------------- 40-lb. Blocks January 1 Wisconsin ComAssembly ----- Production ----mercial Whole Points All Total Stocks Imports4 Milk2 Cheese3 cents/lb. Supply
3,131 3,281 3,286 3,315 3,533 3,642 3,544 3,691 3,622 3,739
Preliminary. Commercial.
30
6,917 7,218 7,330 7,492 7,894 8,258 8,261 8,547 8,557 8,876
437 412 487 481 518 621 706 659 730 715
340 7,695 338 7,968 312 8,130 371 8,344 436 8,847 416 9,295 445 9,412 475 9,681 476 9,763 474 10,065
132.80 146.80 132.40 158.10 142.28 116.14 144.93 118.22 131.24 164.92
In Millions of Pounds
--------------------------------------------- Distribution ---------------------------------------------
Exports & Shipments5
65 72 83 81 85 105 115 119 115 128
American --- Domestic Disappearance --Cheese Total American - Gov't - Removed Cheese D i sa p Dec. 31 by USDA P er Stocks Programs pearance Donated Total Capita
.4 .3 .5 .6 1.0 2.3 4.0 2.7 27.4 9.0
6.1 4.6 11.3 8.2 4.6 28.0 3.9 15.8 41.3 5.9
2 Whole milk American cheddar. 3 All types of cheese except cottage, pot and baker's cheese. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
7,279 7,478 7,646 7,797 8,219 8,580 8,744 9,001 9,007 8,933 4
0 0 0 0 0
7,174 7,365 7,510 7,664 8,086 8,406 8,586 8,819
I mports for consumption.
26.90 27.30 27.50 27.70 29.00 29.80 30.00 30.60
CHEESE Production of Cheese in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
----------- American ----------Year
Whole Milk
Part S ki m
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
3,131 3,281 3,286 3,315 3,533 3,642 3,544 3,691 3,622 3,739
24.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Swiss, Including Total Block Munster
3,155 3,281 3,286 3,315 3,533 3,642 3,544 3,691 3,622 3,739
221.7 219.0 207.6 206.4 221.0 229.3 245.5 254.1 264.7 281.2
Brick
109.1 106.8 100.2 94.6 80.3 85.5 82.2 81.1 79.4 72.2
Cream & Lim- Neufchatel Cheese burger
10.4 10.6 8.5 7.6 8.1 8.6 8.7 10.0 9.8 8.1
.9 .7 .7 .9 .7 .6 .7 .7 .7 .9
543.8 574.7 614.9 621.3 639.3 687.4 645.1 686.2 676.7 699.1
Italian Varieties
2,674.4 2,812.4 2,881.4 3,004.7 3,144.7 3,288.9 3,425.9 3,470.0 3,524.0 3,660.3
Total of All Blue All Other Mond Varieties Cheese2
36.6 38.3 42.8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
164.6 106.7 119.8 166.0 181.0 219.7 199.6 229.8 246.7 273.4
------- Cottage Cheese ------Lowfat
6,917 7,218 7,330 7,492 7,894 8,258 8,261 8,547 8,557 8,876
Curd3 Creamed4
325.9 329.9 346.7 361.2 359.3 363.7 370.2 374.3 384.4 391.2
458.9 448.3 458.5 465.8 464.8 461.0 453.2 436.6 448.0 458.1
384.9 360.4 359.5 366.8 360.6 371.5 371.6 374.2 385.2 377.2
Preliminary. 2 Excludes full-skim cheddar and cottage cheese. 3 I ncludes cottage, pot, and baker's cheese with a butterfat content of less than 4%. 4 I ncludes cheese with a butterfat content of 4 to 19 %. 5 I ncluded in All Other Varieties. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture ERS-USDA) 1
Average Price of Cheese, 40-lb. Blocks, Chicago Mercantile Exchange2 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
139.3 127.9 144.5 162.4 114.6 110.3 132.4 109.3 130.6 162.7
139.3 132.3 144.7 131.5 111.6 120.0 120.8 109.2 139.6 149.3
140.9 134.0 138.8 134.0 112.2 131.9 121.3 108.2 182.0 153.2
145.1 125.6 129.7 133.6 110.7 140.5 124.5 112.3 216.9 154.1
151.8 116.5 123.0 124.8 110.6 160.3 120.1 114.2 199.3 147.7
151.5 117.9 151.3 138.1 120.0 166.8 113.0 118.6 171.1 150.7
158.2 123.3 162.6 159.7 125.2 168.5 108.9 151.2 144.9 105.4
167.6 137.6 166.9 189.0 125.5 171.8 115.8 160.0 157.3 142.5
145.5 141.4 171.0 167.3 133.4 173.9 120.4 160.0 157.0 156.4
162.3 142.4 183.5 134.0 109.4 139.7 119.5 158.8 151.7 144.7
133.9 143.8 188.7 117.3 107.5 126.4 108.9 139.3 169.6 137.6
126.0 146.1 192.5 115.7 113.0 129.1 113.1 133.8 159.2 142.2
146.8 132.4 158.1 142.3 116.1 144.9 118.2 131.2 164.9 145.5
Preliminary. 2 Data through December 2001 are for Wholesale Price of Cheese, 40-lb. Blocks, Wisconsin Assembly Points. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Production2 of Cheese in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
590.0 598.1 617.2 631.6 692.9 680.3 717.5 714.8 738.0 754.7
576.0 577.1 574.3 591.7 649.5 625.3 667.9 648.6 705.5 707.4
625.4 638.0 646.7 698.2 714.8 713.7 742.8 730.3 785.6 799.3
606.0 598.5 636.9 663.8 694.0 670.2 719.2 718.8 761.0 756.9
636.5 642.0 650.4 668.9 730.4 706.8 748.3 737.0 752.1 785.5
595.8 623.4 639.9 664.4 695.7 678.5 708.3 712.3 715.3 762.7
582.2 613.2 607.9 641.3 687.6 676.0 692.2 718.3 708.7 737.7
589.5 596.5 596.4 642.6 683.8 660.0 714.3 700.1 719.5 754.1
584.5 604.3 583.8 637.6 653.8 641.8 683.9 708.7 714.4 741.9
612.2 615.5 633.2 666.5 688.5 682.1 732.2 740.0 748.0 758.2
595.5 594.5 637.8 683.4 675.0 691.2 725.4 710.0 754.3 761.5
623.9 627.9 667.4 704.2 688.4 703.1 747.2 758.9 773.9 791.3
7,218 7,329 7,492 7,894 8,255 8,129 8,599 8,598 8,876 9,111
Preliminary.
2
Excludes cottage cheese.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of All Varieties of Cheese in the United States, on First of Month Millions of Pounds Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
412.1 487.0 480.4 517.2 621.3 707.8 660.0 730.1 724.4 705.8
441.3 501.5 509.3 622.4 728.1 709.9 693.6 761.2 756.9 713.8
466.4 494.6 521.5 635.9 757.2 723.9 720.3 770.0 766.1 723.7
490.9 517.0 533.1 645.1 765.1 711.6 731.7 771.3 759.5 741.7
525.5 555.4 557.6 688.7 794.0 711.8 765.6 781.1 767.6 775.8
541.8 584.3 568.5 741.3 811.4 712.1 789.0 791.0 804.5 810.6
542.8 604.8 583.7 728.4 828.1 739.2 797.6 800.1 842.0 814.7
536.6 604.9 595.8 748.7 870.3 752.6 833.6 809.0 870.0 828.4
506.9 582.3 576.8 694.7 839.9 721.2 801.5 794.2 811.5 804.1
495.8 543.7 553.0 651.3 780.9 708.7 753.9 762.2 790.7 765.4
494.6 505.0 522.7 622.0 732.0 672.2 720.4 722.4 756.1 750.9
480.2 474.4 494.5 591.7 696.0 631.3 697.1 695.5 704.3 716.8
Quantities are given in net weight.
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
31
Chromium 4%. India has emerged as a major producer of chromium in the past two decades. India’s 2004 production level of 2.949 million metric tons was more than 8 times the level of 360,000 metric tons seen 20 years earlier. South Africa’s production in 2004 rose to a record 7.635 million metric tons, more than double the levels seen as recently as the early1990s. Kazakhstan’s production in 2004 of 3.627 million was a 12-year high. Zimbabwe’s chromium production in 2004 of 668,391 metric tons was moderately below the 3decade high of 780,150 metric tons posted in 2001. Government stocks of chromium as of Dec 31, 2004 fell -43% yr/yr to 134,600 metric tons.
Chromium (symbol Cr) is a steel-gray, hard, and brittle, metallic element that can take on a high polish. Chromium and its compounds are toxic. Discovered in 1797 by Louis Vauquelin, chromium is named after the Greek word for color, khroma. Vauquelin also discovered that an emerald’s green color is due to the presence of chromium. Many precious stones owe their color to the presence of chromium compounds. Chromium is primarily found in chromite ore. The primary use of chromium is to form alloys with iron, nickel, or cobalt. Chromium improves hardness and resistance to corrosion and oxidation in iron, steel, and nonferrous alloys. It is a critical alloying ingredient in the production of stainless steel, making up 10% or more of the final composition. More than half of the chromium consumed is used in metallic products, and about one-third is used in refractories. Chromium is also used as a lustrous decorative plating agent, in pigments, leather processing, plating of metals, and catalysts.
Demand – Based on the most recently available data, the metallurgical and chemical industry accounts for 94% of chromium usage in the US, with the remaining 6% used by the refractory industry. Trade – The US relied on imports for 69% of its chromium consumption in 2005, up from the record low of 63% seen in 2002. That is well below the record high of 91% posted back in the 1970s. US chromium imports in 2004 rose +2.8% yr/yr to 326,200 metric tons. That is about onehalf the record high of 640,000 metric tons posted in 1957. US exports of chromium in 2004 fell -25% yr/yr to 34.8 metric tons.
Supply – World production of chromium in 2004 rose +12.9% yr/yr to 17.500 million metric tons, which was up sharply from the 8-year low of 12.100 million metric tons in 2001. The world’s largest producers of chromium in 2004 were South Africa with 44% of world production, Kazakhstan with 19%, India with 17%, and Zimbabwe far behind with
World Mine Production of Chromite
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Year
Albania
Brazil
Cuba
Finland
India
Iran
Kazakhstan
Madag a sca r
Philippines
South Africa
Turkey
Zimbabwe
World Total
160 144 106 102 71 120 86 91 95 158
448 408 301 537 458 550 409 284 404 463
31 37 44 46 52 56 50 46 34 34
598 582 589 498 597 628 575 566 549 580
1,540 1,363 1,363 1,311 1,473 1,947 1,678 2,699 2,210 2,949
371 130 169 212 255 153 105 80 120 183
2,420 1,190 1,796 1,603 2,406 2,607 2,046 2,369 2,928 3,267
106 137 140 104 ---131 24 11 45 77
111 107 88 54 20 26 27 24 24 25
5,090 5,078 6,162 6,480 6,817 6,622 5,502 6,436 7,405 7,626
2,080 1,279 1,703 1,404 770 546 390 314 292 437
707 697 640 605 653 668 780 749 637 668
14,000 11,600 13,600 13,700 14,200 14,700 12,100 14,200 15,500 17,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Chromite in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Production Con- of Ferrosumption chromium
80 79 75 80 80 78 78 63 74 72
73 37 61 W W W W W W W
Consumption by - Primary Conumer Groups - - Government5 Stocks, Dec. 31--
Exports
24 47 27 55 53 86 43 29 46 35
Imports for Consumption Reexports
415 361 349 383 475 453 239 263 317 326
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Cr2O3, 44% (Transvaal). Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
32
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Metallurgical & Chemical Refractory
Total
W W W W W W W W W W 4
48% Cr2O3.
W W W W W W W W W W 5
W W W W W W W W W W
Metallurgical & Chemical Refractory
194 165 167 W W 396 396 78 79 46
Data through 1999 are for Consumer.
11 8 8 W W 241 241 126 156 88
Total Stocks
205 173 175 159 130 637 637 204 235 135
W = Withheld.
- $ per Metric Ton South Africa3
Turkish4
80 230 80 230 75 150 68 145 63 145 60-65 140-150 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Coal Coal is a sedimentary rock composed primarily of carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Coal is a fossil fuel formed from ancient plants buried deep in the Earth’s crust over 300 million years ago. Historians believe coal was first used commercially in China for smelting copper and for casting coins around 1,000 BC. Almost 92% of all coal consumed in the US is burned by electric power plants, and coal accounts for about 55% of total electricity output. Coal is also used in the manufacture of steel. The steel industry first converts coal into coke, then combines the coke with iron ore and limestone, and finally heats the mixture to produce iron. Other industries use coal to make fertilizers, solvents, medicine, pesticides, and synthetic fuels. There are four types of mined coal: anthracite (used in high-grade steel production), bituminous (used for electricity generation and for making coke), sub-bituminous, and lignite (both used primarily for electricity generation).
World Production3 of Coal (Monthly Average) Year
Australia
Canada
China
CzechRep.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052
16,120 17,235 18,424 18,643 19,958 22,018 23,123 30,000 31,250 32,667
3,336 3,435 3,190 3,043 2,817 2,845 5,573 5,177 5,499 5,519
116,417 114,402 94,806 80,200 70,782 80,040 92,339 109,602 130,434 148,243
1,378 1,339 1,343 1,193 1,238 1,261 1,206 1,137 1,109 1,100
Coal futures trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The contract trades in units of 1,550 tons and is priced in terms of dollars and cents per ton. Supply – US production of bituminous coal in 2005 (annualized through Sep) fell by –0.6% yr/yr to 1.104 billion short tons. Demand – US consumption of coal in 2004, the latest reporting year for the series, rose by +0.9% to 1.104 billion tons, which was a new record high. Trade – US exports of coal in 2004 rose +11.6% yr/yr to 47.998 million tons, and imports rose +5.2% yr/yr to 27.280 million tons. The key exporting destinations for the US are Canada and Europe.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Germany
India
4,428 4,267 3,776 3,657 3,111 2,406 2,197 2,396 2,429 2,273
23,840 24,764 24,356 25,004 25,802 26,563 27,938 29,036 31,438 32,316
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Poland
Russia
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
3,945 4,340 5,027 5,892 6,402 7,554 8,588 9,551 11,021
6,086 6,268 5,672 4,644 5,960 6,810 6,493 7,060 6,795 6,626
11,425 11,427 9,644 9,301 8,598 8,658 8,676 8,529 8,414 8,127
13,875 13,317 12,779 13,799 14,292 15,507 15,198 16,329 17,495 18,174
6,178 6,293 6,431 6,804 6,749 6,908 5,163 5,354 4,965 5,010
4,183 4,041 3,431 3,090 2,600 2,677 2,499 2,353 2,089 1,600
80,426 82,398 84,484 66,796 65,220 68,666 66,565 81,023 92,953 93,225
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 All grades of anthracite and bituminous coal, but excludes recovered slurries, lignite and brown coal.. NA = Not avaliable. Source: United Nations
1
Production of Bituminous & Lignite Coal in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052 1
Alabama
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky
Montana
Ohio
24,637 24,468 23,224 19,504 19,324 19,513 19,062 20,207 22,329 22,564
24,886 27,449 30,825 29,989 29,137 33,372 35,103 35,831 39,870 39,879
46,656 41,159 38,182 40,417 33,444 33,783 33,358 31,760 31,912 31,617
29,670 35,497 36,297 34,004 27,965 36,738 35,513 35,512 35,206 33,558
152,425 155,853 145,609 139,626 130,688 134,298 124,388 113,126 114,743 116,530
37,891 41,005 42,092 41,102 38,352 39,143 37,386 36,994 39,989 37,836
28,572 29,154 28,600 22,480 22,269 25,400 21,157 22,009 23,222 24,282
67,942 76,198 76,519 76,368 74,619 74,784 67,104 63,792 66,023 65,250
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Production of Bituminous Coal in the United States Year
1
Texas
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
Total
55,164 53,328 53,578 53,071 49,498 45,042 45,247 47,517 45,863 43,714
35,590 35,837 34,059 32,181 32,834 33,060 30,126 31,771 31,647 28,331
170,433 173,743 175,794 157,919 158,257 162,631 150,222 139,755 148,017 151,030
278,440 281,881 313,983 337,119 338,900 368,749 373,161 376,270 396,493 407,269
1,063,856 1,089,932 1,109,768 1,095,474 1,073,612 1,125,749 1,092,916 1,071,753 1,110,393 1,118,078
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Pennsylvania
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
83,013 92,425 97,012 90,928 87,222 96,721 101,939 92,649 93,182 90,697
83,671 88,028 86,167 92,015 86,846 86,802 90,208 82,130 86,306 86,965
90,392 92,265 95,091 98,672 99,045 99,176 90,108 88,976 94,876 98,749
88,158 87,909 91,735 88,630 81,793 89,954 90,039 89,202 91,739 91,454
88,562 94,296 90,397 84,436 88,715 94,840 91,673 90,435 87,210 88,356
83,824 86,382 92,099 89,734 90,583 92,657 85,555 88,348 94,835 93,384
88,331 88,666 90,497 87,759 84,442 89,037 86,190 88,301 92,260 89,603
94,664 89,319 91,212 92,600 96,361 99,048 92,054 89,355 95,209 95,423
87,388 92,298 95,442 92,248 88,848 88,985 92,212 90,344 93,525 93,293
94,195 94,562 96,723 89,146 92,542 99,529 94,033 93,928 92,618 90,982
86,400 83,344 90,544 90,885 94,035 93,736 87,836 84,155 92,268 92,226
86,493 94,913 94,567 92,450 87,272 88,234 91,058 94,154 95,478 90,168
1,059,104 1,085,254 1,106,128 1,089,503 1,077,704 1,118,719 1,092,905 1,071,977 1,109,506 1,101,300
Preliminary.
2
I ncludes small amount of lignite.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
33
COAL Production2 of Pennsylvania Anthracite Coal
In Thousands of Short Tons
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
302 351 306 355 271 302 131 108 197 128
349 366 305 369 283 275 117 98 183 124
367 492 309 389 382 323 116 98 147 143
371 374 405 354 342 283 121 115 111 160
361 351 384 459 375 300 122 114 101 158
335 390 388 402 383 297 240 107 214 183
367 407 525 343 366 328 116 97 141 210
418 423 454 436 430 358 126 95 145 234
385 415 452 479 412 318 119 101 150 226
557 448 533 414 417 375 130 130 145 210
505 384 167 407 402 349 120 111 151 241
434 415 167 406 366 173 126 116 127 171
4,751 4,678 4,612 4,808 4,432 3,681 1,584 1,290 1,812 2,188
1
Preliminary.
2
Represents production in Pennsylvania only.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Salient Statistics of Coal in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------- Exports ------------------------------------Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41
Production
Imports
Consumption
Brazil
Canada
Europe
A si a
Total
Total Ending Stocks2
1,032,974 1,063,856 1,089,932 1,117,535 1,100,431 1,073,612 1,127,689 1,094,283 1,071,753 1,111,479
7,201 7,126 7,487 8,724 9,089 12,513 19,787 16,875 25,044 27,280
962,039 1,005,573 1,030,453 1,038,972 1,038,648 1,084,094 1,060,146 1,066,355 1,094,861 1,104,267
6,351 6,540 7,455 6,475 4,442 4,536 4,574 3,538 3,514 4,361
9,427 12,029 14,975 19,901 19,826 18,769 17,633 16,686 20,760 17,760
48,620 47,193 41,331 33,773 22,508 24,969 20,821 15,574 15,148 15,211
19,095 17,980 14,498 12,311 9,157 6,702 3,246 1,735 266 7,475
88,547 90,473 83,545 77,295 58,476 58,489 48,666 39,601 43,014 47,998
169,083 151,627 140,374 164,602 188,590 140,282 181,912 192,127 165,468 147,247
L o sse s & Unaccounted For3
-7,863 -7,366 -4,418 -13,118 -11,592 -8,150 -2,966 -5,012 -14,419 4,715
Preliminary. 2 Producer & distributor and consumer stocks, excludes stocks held by retail dealers for consumption by the residential and commercial sector. 3 Equals production plus imports minus the change in producer & distributor and consumer stocks minus consumption minus exports. Source: Energy I nformation Administraion, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
Consumption and Stocks of Coal in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------------------------- Consumption ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Electric Utilities ------------------------- Industrial ------ Residential C o ke Other and Anthracite Bituminous Lignite Total Plants Industrial2 Commercial Total
978 1,009 1,014 867 686 NA NA NA NA NA
749,951 795,252 821,823 832,094 815,909 781,821 NA NA NA NA
78,078 850,230 78,421 896,921 77,524 921,364 77,906 936,619 77,525 940,922 75,794 985,821 NA 964,433 NA 977,507 NA 1,005,116 NA 1,015,126
33,011 31,706 30,203 28,189 28,108 28,939 26,075 23,656 24,248 23,670
73,055 71,689 71,515 67,439 64,738 65,208 65,268 60,747 61,261 61,235
5,807 6,006 6,463 4,856 4,878 4,127 4,369 4,445 4,236 4,236
962,104 1,006,321 1,029,544 1,037,103 1,038,647 1,084,095 1,060,146 1,066,355 1,094,861 1,104,267
------------------- Stocks, Dec. 313 ------------------Producers -------------- Consumer -------------and Electric C o ke Other Utilities Plants Industrials Distributors
126,304 114,623 98,826 120,501 141,604 102,296 138,496 141,714 121,567 106,669
2,632 2,667 1,978 2,026 1,943 1,494 1,510 1,364 905 1,344
5,702 5,688 5,597 5,545 5,569 4,587 6,006 5,792 4,718 4,842
34,444 28,648 33,973 36,530 39,475 31,905 35,900 43,257 38,277 41,151
Preliminary. 2 I ncluding transportation. 3 Excludes stocks held at retail dealers for consumption by the residential and commercial sector. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
Average Prices of Coal in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
------- End-Use-Sector ------Other IndustElectric C o ke rial2 Imports3 Utilities Plants
27.01 26.45 26.16 25.64 24.72
47.34 47.33 47.36 46.06 45.85
32.42 32.32 32.41 32.30 31.59
34.13 33.78 34.32 32.18 30.77
In Dollars Per Short Ton
------------- Exports ------------MetalTotal Steam lurgical Average3
34.51 34.09 32.45 30.27 29.91
44.30 45.49 45.47 44.53 41.91
40.27 40.76 40.55 38.89 36.50
------- End-Use-Sector ------Other IndustElectric C o ke rial2 Imports3 Year Utilities Plants
2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
24.28 24.68 24.74 25.29 NA
Preliminary. 2 Manufacturing plants only. 3 Based on the free alongside ship (F.A.S.) value. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
34
44.38 46.42 50.67 50.63 61.50
31.46 32.26 35.49 34.70 39.30
30.10 34.00 35.51 31.45 37.52
------------ Exports -----------MetalTotal Steam lurgical Average3
29.67 31.88 34.51 26.94 42.03
38.99 41.63 45.41 44.55 63.63
34.89 36.97 40.44 35.98 54.11
COAL Trends in Bituminous Coal, Lignite and Pennsylvania Anthracite in the U.S. ----------------------------------- Bituminous Coal and Lignite -----------------------------------
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------ Pennsylvania Anthracite ------------------
All Mines Labor Labor Product. Product. Miners1 Short Tons Short Tons Total Employed Miner/Hr. Miner/Hr.
------------ Labor Productivity --------------------------------- Production ----------------------Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Undergound
Surface
396,249 409,849 420,657 417,728 391,790 373,659 380,627 357,385 352,785 367,557
636,725 654,007 669,274 699,807 708,642 699,953 745,308 735,910 717,870 743,552
Underground Surface Average Miners1 Total Employed - Short Tons Per Miner Per Hour -
1,032,974 1,063,856 1,089,932 1,117,535 1,100,431 1,073,612 1,127,689 1,094,283 1,071,753 1,112,099
90,252 83,462 81,516 85,418 78,723 72,748 77,088 75,466 71,023 73,912
3.39 3.57 3.83 3.90 3.99 4.15 4.02 3.98 4.04 3.96
8.48 9.05 9.46 9.58 10.39 11.01 10.60 10.38 10.76 10.57
1 Excludes miners employed at mines producing less than 10,000 tons. U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Mine Prices of Coal in the United States ----- Average Mine Price by Method -----
Underground
Surface
428 391 419 408 377 301 341 305 282 271
4,254 4,360 4,259 4,823 4,376 4,271 1,143 998 961 1,408
5.38 5.69 6.04 6.20 6.61 6.99 6.82 6.80 6.95 6.80
4,682 4,751 4,678 5,231 4,753 4,572 1,484 1,303 1,243 1,679
2.08 1.92 1.76 2.04 1.76 1.89 .81 .78 .82 .97
5.38 5.69 6.04 6.20 6.61 6.99 6.82 6.80 6.95 6.80
Source: Energy I nformation Administration,
In Dollars Per Short Ton
--------------- Average Mine Prices by Rank ---------------
Year
Underground
Surface
Total
Lignite
Subbituminous
Bituminous
Anthracite1
Bituminous & Lignite FOB Mines2
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
26.18 25.96 25.68 25.64 24.33 23.84 25.37 26.68 26.71 30.36
14.25 13.82 13.39 12.92 12.37 12.26 13.18 13.65 13.42 14.75
18.83 18.50 18.14 17.67 16.63 16.44 17.38 17.98 17.85 19.93
10.83 10.92 10.91 10.80 11.04 11.41 11.52 11.07 11.20 12.27
8.10 7.87 7.42 6.96 6.87 7.12 6.67 7.34 7.73 8.12
25.56 25.17 24.64 24.87 23.92 24.15 25.36 26.57 26.73 30.56
39.78 36.78 35.12 42.91 35.13 40.90 47.67 47.78 49.55 39.77
25.56 25.17 24.64 24.87 23.92 24.15 25.36 26.57 26.73 30.56
Produced in Pennsylvania. 2 FOB = free on board. 3 CI F = cost, insurance and freight. Source: Energy I nformation Adminstration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
1,069 1,171 1,287 1,281 1,326 1,272 955 872 814 890
Anthracite FOB Mines2
39.78 36.78 35.12 42.91 35.13 40.90 47.67 47.78 49.55 39.77
All Coal CIF3 Electric Utility Plants
27.01 26.45 26.16 25.64 24.72 24.28 24.68 24.74 25.29
W = Withheld data.
Dollars Per Short Ton ----- Bituminous, F.O.B. Mines (1949 - date) - - - Anthracite, F.O.B. Preparation Plants (1949 - 1978) Anthracite, F.O.B. Mines (1979 - date)
35
Cobalt world production in 2004, Zambia (19%), Australia (13%), and Canada (10%). The US does not specifically mine or refine cobalt although some cobalt is produced as a by-product of mining operations. Imports, stock releases, and secondary materials comprise the US cobalt supply. Secondary production includes extraction from super-alloy scrap, cemented carbide scrap, and spent catalysts. In the US, there are two domestic producers of extra-fine cobalt powder. One company produces the powder from imported primary metal and the other from recycled materials. There are seven companies that produce cobalt compounds. US secondary production of cobalt in 2004 rose +8.0% yr/yr to 2,300 metric tons but is still well below the record high of 3,080 metric tons seen in 1998. Demand – US consumption of cobalt in 2004 fell –0.8% yr/yr to 9,920 metric tons, which was below the record high of 11,800 metric tons seen in 2001. The largest use of cobalt by far was for super-alloys with 3,650 metric tons of consumption in 2004. Other smaller-scaled applications for cobalt include cutting and wear-resistant materials (765 metric tons), welding materials (627 metric tons), and magnetic alloys (396 metric tons). Trade – US imports of cobalt in 2004 rose by +7.9% to 8,720 metric tons, but remained below the 19-year high of 9,410 metric tons seen in 2001 and far below the record high of 11,481 metric tons seen in 1984. The US relies on imports for 78% of its cobalt consumption, which is down from the 99% level seen in the early 1970s.
Cobalt (symbol Co) is a lustrous, silvery-white, magnetic, metallic element used chiefly for making alloys. Cobalt was known in ancient times and used by the Persians in 2250 BC to color glass. The name cobalt comes from the German word kobalt or kobold, meaning evil spirit. Miners gave cobalt its name because it was poisonous and troublesome since it polluted and degraded other mined elements, like nickel. In the 1730s, George Brandt first isolated metallic cobalt and was able to show that cobalt was the source of the blue color in glasses. In 1780, it was recognized as an element. Cobalt is generally not found in nature as a free metal and is instead found in ores. Cobalt is generally produced as a by-product of nickel and copper mining. Cobalt is used in a variety of applications: high temperature steel alloys; fasteners in gas turbine engines; magnets and magnetic recording media; drying agents for paints and pigments; and steel-belted radial tires. Cobalt-60, an important radioactive tracer and cancer-treatment agent, is an artificially produced radioactive isotope of cobalt. Prices – The price of cobalt rose sharply by +125.8% in 2004 to $23.93 per pound, which is more than triple the 17year low of $6.91 per pound in 2002. The 2004 price, however, is still well below the record high of $29.21 per pound posted in 1995. Supply – World production of cobalt in 2004 rose by +7.6% to a record high of 52,400 metric tons. The world’s largest cobalt mine producers are the Congo with 31% of
World Mine Production of Cobalt Year
Australia
Botswana
Canada
2,500 2,800 3,000 3,300 4,100 5,600 6,300 6,700 6,900 6,700
271 408 334 335 331 308 325 269 294 223
5,339 5,714 5,709 5,861 5,323 5,298 5,326 5,148 4,327 5,197
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
In Metric Tons (Cobalt Content) Finland France Ja p a n New Norway Cuba (Refinery) (Refinery) (Refinery) Caledonia (Refinery)
1,591 2,011 2,358 2,665 2,537 2,852 3,417 3,384 3,465 3,580
Formerly Zaire.
3,610 4,160 5,000 10,600 10,000 7,700 8,100 8,200 7,990 7,893
Year
36
1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400
2,804 3,098 3,417 4,500 4,500 3,433 3,314 3,994 4,556 4,670
Zambia
World Total
3,500 3,300 3,300 3,600 3,900 4,000 4,600 4,600 4,800 4,700
1,647 2,000 3,500 5,000 7,000 11,000 15,000 14,500 12,000 16,000
5,908 6,959 6,037 11,900 5,640 4,600 8,000 10,000 11,300 10,000
24,500 26,200 27,400 35,300 32,700 37,900 47,900 50,700 48,700 52,400
In Metric Tons (Cobalt Content)
Net Import ------------------------------------------------- Consumption by End Uses -----------------------------------------------Reliance Cobalt Processors and Imports as a % of SeconCutting Drier in & WearMagfor Ground Stainless Price dary Consumer Total Apparent netic Pig- Paints, Resistant Welding Apparent Coat & Heat Cata- Super- Tool ConStocks $ P er ProConetc.3 Material Materials lysts alloys Steel Alloys ments Frit Resisting Dec. 31 sumption Uses Pound4 sumption duction
79 76 76 73 73 74 78 75 78 76
1,860 2,280 2,750 3,080 2,720 2,550 2,780 2,800 2,130 2,300
818 770 763 750 738 820 852 917 649 719
6,440 6,710 8,430 7,670 8,150 8,770 9,410 8,450 8,080 8,720
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Or related usage. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
227 258 264 480 480 311 350 354 379 429
Congo3
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Cobalt in the United States
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
161 174 159 300 300 204 199 176 181 199
Russia
196 391 490 W W W W W W W 4
38 38 38 38 W W W W W W
732 652 734 W W W W W W W
2,940 3,360 4,170 4,060 3,830 4,070 4,850 3,700 3,400 3,650
Annual spot for cathodes.
146 95 112 96 W W W W W W
757 719 879 771 794 625 472 416 282 396
172 191 201 W W W W W W W
770 733 556 W W W W W W W
W = Withheld proprietary data.
748 722 789 844 755 760 720 618 662 765
287 347 342 421 291 867 661 634 632 627
8,970 9,380 11,200 11,500 10,700 11,600 11,800 9,830 10,000 9,920
29.21 25.50 23.34 21.43 17.02 15.16 10.55 6.91 10.60 23.93
Cocoa Cocoa is the common name for a powder derived from the fruit seeds of the cacao tree. The Spanish called cocoa “the food of the gods” when they found it in South America 500 years ago. Today, it remains a valued commodity. Dating back to the time of the Aztecs, cocoa was mainly used as a beverage. The processing of the cacao seeds, also known as cocoa beans, begins when the harvested fruit is fermented or cured into a pulpy state for three to nine days. The cocoa beans are then dried in the sun and cleaned in special machines before they are roasted to bring out the chocolate flavor. After roasting, they are put into a crushing machine and ground into cocoa powder. Cocoa has a high food value because it contains as much as 20 percent protein, 40 percent carbohydrate, and 40 percent fat. It is also mildly stimulating because of the presence of theobromine, an alkaloid that is closely related to caffeine. Roughly two-thirds of cocoa bean production is used to make chocolate and one-third to make cocoa powder. Four major West African cocoa producers, the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon, together account for about two-thirds of world cocoa production. Outside of West Africa, the major producers of cocoa are Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic. Cocoa producers like Ghana and Indonesia have been making efforts to increase cocoa production while producers like Malaysia have been switching to other crops. Ghana has had an ongoing problem with black pod disease and with smuggling of the crop into neighboring Ivory Coast. Brazil was once one of the largest producers of cocoa but has had problems with witches’ broom disease. In West Africa, the main crop harvest starts in the September-October period and can be extended into the January-March period. Cocoa trees reach maturity in 5-6 years but can live to be 50 years old or more. During the course of a growing season, the cocoa tree will produce thousands of flowers but only a few will develop into cocoa pods. Cocoa futures and options are traded at the CSCE Division of the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) and on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE). The futures contracts call for the delivery of 10 metric tons of cocoa and the contract is priced in US dollars per metric ton. Prices – Cocoa prices on the CSCE nearest-futures chart in 2005 continued the 2004 pattern of consolidating near the middle of the range established by the sharp rally from
World Supply and Demand Cocoa
the 3-decade low near $674 per metric ton posted in December 2000 to the 2-decade high of $2,420 posted in early 2003. Cocoa futures closed 2005 at $1504 per metric ton, down – 2.8% from the close of $1547 in 2004. Bullish factors for cocoa in 2005 included continued strong demand, the 6% decline in the cocoa crop in 2004-05 which pushed inventories down, and general strength in commodity prices in 2005. There was some continued sporadic violence in the Ivory Coast between government troops and rebels, although there was nothing on the scale of the temporary 25% cut in cocoa production seen in November 2004 when Ivory Coast troops broke the ceasefire, attacked French troops, and subsequently had their aircraft destroyed by the French military. The comparatively quiet situation in the Ivory Coast in 2005 allowed cocoa production to proceed unimpeded, thus putting some downward pressure on cocoa prices. Supply – The world net cocoa crop in 2004-05 fell – 6.1% yr/yr to 3.268 million metric tons from the record high of 3.480 million metric tons seen in 2003-04. The drop in production caused closing stocks in 2004-05 to fall –3.7% yr/ yr to 1.368 million metric tons, and the stocks/consumption ratio to fall to the low level of 41.2%. World grindings in 2004-05 rose by +2.8% yr/yr to 3.321 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest cocoa producer by far is the Ivory Coast where production in 2004-05 fell –8.2% yr/yr to 1.273 million metric tons from the record high of 1.386 million metric tons in 2003-04. The Ivory Coast accounted for 38.6% of world cocoa production in 2004-05. Other major cocoa producers include Ghana with 18% of world production, Indonesia with 14%, Cameroon with 5.7%, Brazil with 5.2%, and Nigeria with 5.0%. Demand – World consumption of cocoa in 2004-05 rose +2.8% yr/yr to a new record high of 3.321 million metric tons. The world’s largest cocoa consumers are the European Union with 40% of world consumption in 2004-05, followed by the US with 12% of world consumption. US consumption of cocoa in 2004-05 rose by +2.5% to 411,000 metric tons. There were large consumption increases in 2004-05 in Russia (+7.9%), the European Union (+5.7%), and Malaysia (+10.0%). There were large consumption declines in Japan (-12.3%), Canada (-5.6%), and Turkey (-12.7%). Trade – US imports of cocoa and cocoa products in 2005 rose sharply by +11.5% yr/yr to 1.306 million metric tons, which was a new record high. US imports of cocoa have soared in the past 15 years and are roughly 6 times the average of 225,000 metric tons of cocoa seen in the 1980s.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Crop Year Beginning October
Stocks Oct. 1
Net World Production4
Total Availability
Seasonal Grindings
Closing Stocks
Stock Change
Stock/ Consumption Ratio %
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
1,602 1,562 1,394 1,423 1,478 1,172 1,123 1,224 1,486 1,448
2,690 2,605 2,786 3,030 2,766 2,793 3,115 3,492 3,283 3,190
4,292 4,167 4,180 4,453 4,244 3,965 4,238 4,716 4,769 4,638
2,730 2,773 2,757 2,975 3,072 2,843 3,014 3,230 3,321 3,411
1,562 1,394 1,423 1,478 1,172 1,123 1,224 1,486 1,448 1,227
-40 -168 29 55 -306 -49 101 262 -38 -221
57.2 50.3 51.6 49.7 38.2 39.5 40.6 46.0 43.6 36.0
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd.
1
4
Obtained by adjusting the gross world crop for a one percent loss in weight.
37
COCOA World Production of Cocoa Beans Crop Year Beginning October
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
Brazil
Cameroon
Colombi a
Domini ca n Republic
183 173 138 124 163 124 163 163 171 165
121 114 123 115 133 131 155 165 185 170
39 38 39 37 36 34 36 37 37 37
47 60 22 28 37 45 45 46 33 44
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Canada
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053
39 35 53 42 56 58 56 57 72 65
European Brazil Union
183 180 188 191 202 195 173 196 207 209
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
1
3
1,225 1,203 1,228 1,186 1,235 1,263 1,159 1,190 1,256 1,328 Forecast.
Ecuador
101 28 72 92 81 72 81 111 110 120
Nigeria
Papua New Guinea
World Total
35 30 25 31 33 29 35 27 36 28
160 165 200 180 180 195 180 190 180 150
28 26 35 46 39 38 43 39 40 40
2,712 2,626 2,808 3,054 2,788 2,816 3,140 3,520 3,309 3,216
Ghana
Indonesia
Ivory C o a st
Malaysia
Mexico
323 409 398 435 395 340 497 737 583 630
327 322 396 428 381 459 418 464 471 450
1,130 1,090 1,175 1,404 1,185 1,240 1,360 1,386 1,273 1,195
102 57 79 37 29 10 10 10 10 10
Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
World Consumption of Cocoa4 Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons
4
In Thousands of Metric Tons Ghana
Indonesia
Cote d'Ivoire
Ja p a n
Malaysia
Singapore
Turkey
United States
Russia
World Total
60 68 67 65 75 80 80 69 78 76
60 72 74 83 88 91 108 115 122 111
130 145 195 210 230 285 265 290 321 320
49 53 43 47 48 49 50 64 57 53
96 103 94 109 117 121 93 129 200 228
63 61 68 63 60 59 62 71 59 57
16 16 22 22 25 39 39 50 71 58
345 394 399 406 439 445 393 400 401 409
75 74 50 48 62 67 69 60 63 68
2,655 2,730 2,773 2,757 2,975 3,072 2,843 3,014 3,230 3,321
Figures represent the grindings of cocoa beans in each country.
Imports of Cocoa Butter in Selected Countries
NA = Not available.
In Metric Tons
Year
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
NetherLands
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
12,150 14,316 14,896 16,305 22,573 20,591 20,634 20,800 22,307 23,516
7,425 7,124 6,922 5,984 5,363 4,425 3,814 3,638 3,963 4,467
26,185 23,771 34,222 25,722 42,278 52,917 51,576 49,467 58,076 55,840
11,146 12,166 16,782 16,941 17,323 22,005 23,307 24,397 26,314 27,632
40,245 47,349 46,516 43,610 49,722 48,033 51,029 58,949 58,651 61,613
69,928 69,298 71,094 76,057 70,323 71,985 80,839 82,313 77,880 84,269
12,027 11,178 9,706 8,957 8,281 11,106 11,764 12,101 13,343 13,966
12,898 16,096 16,609 15,363 17,824 21,696 21,663 20,212 22,579 22,164
38,300 39,193 29,023 28,523 35,602 27,253 36,643 37,569 55,820 50,097
7,078 5,698 6,937 7,403 6,884 5,986 6,350 6,401 6,564 6,667
17,835 18,690 19,058 19,857 21,278 19,923 18,901 20,187 21,455 22,960
30,654 32,781 37,021 32,951 39,648 36,360 40,668 39,117 38,799 47,979
57,210 68,761 87,687 65,306 80,475 94,649 80,808 54,788 78,315 94,891
1
Preliminary.
NA = Not available.
Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
Imports of Cocoa Liquor and Cocoa Pow der in Selected Countries Year
----------------------------------- Cocoa Liqour ----------------------------------NetherUnited United France Germany Ja p a n lands Kingdom States
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
46,570 62,938 61,148 70,883 74,721 67,812 67,500 64,820 71,337 72,057
1
Preliminary.
38
5,083 7,437 10,299 9,121 13,833 14,295 17,548 28,100 31,391 42,975
6,822 9,926 8,401 12,534 1,421 1,618 1,553 1,193 1,764 2,773
NA = Not available.
1,832 2,133 1,393 1,144 25,639 33,815 41,913 46,369 35,089 40,847
5,030 5,069 5,860 3,813 4,396 8,529 10,289 14,038 20,154 17,753
19,192 15,357 17,850 21,894 12,823 10,902 17,940 22,215 20,018 20,758
Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
In Metric Tons
------------------------------------------- Cocoa Pow der -------------------------------------------NetherUnited Denmark France Germany Italy Ja p a n lands States
3,229 3,711 4,189 3,865 3,676 3,348 4,014 NA NA NA
17,081 18,398 19,555 19,533 19,342 21,932 25,736 24,445 31,933 33,148
32,247 36,211 35,069 32,479 33,404 34,601 32,621 36,583 32,805 42,732
15,265 15,006 15,872 17,122 16,464 18,261 20,164 19,201 18,573 19,637
6,310 13,069 8,941 8,779 9,779 11,245 11,949 10,299 12,895 14,393
10,048 66,075 6,678 68,658 4,424 71,024 3,746 84,211 8,405 84,975 22,492 86,908 30,149 113,593 26,021 95,499 35,275 99,977 35,263 104,880
COCOA Imports of Cocoa and Products in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
90 80 86 100 111 108 87 115 110 129
87 47 105 79 128 97 74 74 82 109
90 77 90 81 101 77 73 92 130 156
80 71 71 93 91 47 61 71 100 108
55 64 55 51 70 68 76 68 101 104
49 54 65 60 67 61 72 74 103 93
62 59 65 77 70 80 87 95 94 91
53 47 62 62 70 78 98 82 94 103
53 64 72 68 86 76 61 79 100 86
60 61 63 67 76 86 66 95 90 87
60 56 54 82 59 92 90 85 80 112
86 88 77 102 69 118 72 116 89 129
821 768 865 922 999 989 916 1,046 1,171 1,308
1
Preliminary.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Visible Stocks of Cocoa in Port of Hampton Road Warehouses1, at End of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1,439.8 1,128.3 726.5 661.6 469.7 741.9 504.7 149.9 48.6 31.1
1,492.8 1,132.1 693.4 693.2 448.4 657.4 462.8 121.7 47.8 30.9
1,458.0 1,133.0 841.9 642.5 571.7 632.0 436.7 103.1 47.5 28.6
1,549.6 1,094.0 842.5 579.7 583.4 607.7 424.0 102.3 47.5 28.0
1,561.7 1,010.5 811.6 536.9 711.1 577.3 383.8 80.5 44.3 28.0
1,493.9 970.2 764.7 500.7 672.4 518.8 353.4 71.9 43.9 27.4
1,412.3 872.4 714.3 489.0 720.3 498.2 327.4 69.2 41.2 27.4
1,315.4 840.1 712.3 472.7 925.2 487.5 273.3 67.7 40.4 27.4
1,239.6 727.3 795.4 473.4 921.4 475.2 255.4 56.9 40.1 27.4
1,338.9 763.9 801.9 451.8 839.7 506.8 194.8 53.0 38.0 27.4
1,108.1 695.7 705.9 438.9 762.9 509.0 181.5 49.6 38.0 27.4
1,116.2 704.8 673.0 421.2 816.0 511.4 169.9 49.3 36.8 27.4
Licensed and unlicensed warehouses approved by the CSCE.
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Visible Stocks of Cocoa in Philadelphia (Del. River) Warehouses1, at End of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
960.2 1,753.0 1,420.3 1,763.0 1,619.0 1,844.0 1,701.5 1,347.2 1,294.9 1,588.9
1,005.2 1,634.4 1,435.7 1,832.8 1,801.7 2,082.3 1,876.7 1,422.0 1,061.5 1,809.8
1,205.6 1,579.6 1,592.6 1,982.7 2,466.4 2,173.3 1,849.3 1,327.9 1,259.1 2,066.3
1,658.8 1,641.0 1,555.3 2,217.8 2,582.0 1,960.0 1,708.0 1,326.5 1,187.1 2,264.5
1,871.3 1,578.7 1,398.5 2,019.4 2,581.6 1,785.9 1,746.4 1,217.2 1,238.8 2,439.3
1,851.7 1,625.9 1,287.8 1,999.6 2,363.7 1,610.4 1,689.5 1,202.3 1,342.0 2,258.3
1,969.1 1,696.2 1,279.8 2,084.6 2,168.3 1,391.6 1,793.1 1,229.2 1,432.6 2,465.0
1,816.2 1,637.6 1,376.9 2,133.4 2,101.6 1,543.0 1,832.7 1,123.7 1,529.3 2,481.0
1,851.1 1,530.9 1,373.7 2,144.1 2,105.1 1,391.3 1,750.9 930.6 1,366.4 2,470.5
1,705.1 1,491.8 1,260.6 2,015.5 2,039.1 1,131.4 1,334.5 798.9 1,569.4 2,373.5
1,671.7 1,414.2 1,406.7 1,774.4 1,697.4 1,303.2 1,162.7 723.7 1,312.8 2,635.5
1,696.5 1,394.0 1,637.1 1,608.5 1,589.4 1,682.1 1,250.6 806.0 1,335.7 2,712.8
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Visible Stocks of Cocoa in New York Warehouses1, at End of Month 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Thousands of Bags
Jan.
Licensed and unlicensed warehouses approved by the CSCE.
Year
In Thousands of Bags
Jan.
In Thousands of Bags
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
667.6 984.7 973.9 1,085.0 1,633.7 1,005.6 1,088.9 614.6 229.9 201.2
646.1 981.3 1,342.7 1,089.3 1,689.5 1,173.8 870.8 625.4 415.2 446.3
632.7 945.0 1,271.3 1,083.1 1,926.9 1,119.6 892.0 593.7 616.1 495.9
627.2 1,250.0 1,675.7 1,134.1 2,049.8 1,024.9 816.1 612.9 579.9 677.7
656.1 1,574.4 1,552.3 1,139.4 1,926.7 967.5 739.1 515.1 712.7 806.6
633.5 1,524.7 1,516.7 1,114.3 1,789.6 906.6 736.0 476.1 680.1 916.5
1,191.7 1,512.8 1,404.6 1,093.5 1,632.2 776.2 640.9 423.6 676.3 805.2
1,154.2 1,348.0 1,293.1 974.5 1,383.7 758.5 553.6 388.2 596.1 625.2
1,121.4 1,217.3 1,300.1 941.9 1,323.7 657.6 670.1 483.4 486.3 457.2
973.2 1,073.7 1,126.4 821.7 1,234.8 687.4 525.7 301.9 334.5 430.3
950.1 1,020.0 989.2 847.5 1,100.0 750.8 473.1 391.3 272.0 388.3
919.0 980.4 1,031.6 1,573.1 1,019.4 1,196.2 554.8 342.9 209.6 599.2
Licensed and unlicensed warehouses approved by the CSCE.
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
39
COCOA
USD Per Metruc Ton ----- Ivory Coast (Oct. 1980 - date) ----- Caracas, Philadelphia (1825 - 1854) Guayaquil, Philadelphia (1855 - 1897) Guayaquil, London (1898 - 1906) Bahia, New York (1907- 1912) Accra, New York (1913 - 1925) Exchange Standard, New York (Dec. 1926 - Dec. 1947) Accra, New York (Jan. 1948 - Dec. 1984)
Average Cash Price of Cocoa, Ivory Coast in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1,455 1,517 1,750 1,565 1,027 1,093 1,586 2,483 1,840 1,740
1,476 1,452 1,721 1,498 962 1,299 1,674 2,506 1,763 1,827
1,421 1,591 1,812 1,415 1,025 1,290 1,794 2,258 1,695 1,950
1,536 1,628 1,835 1,276 993 1,244 1,800 2,232 1,610 1,744
1,558 1,624 1,902 1,144 998 1,281 1,814 1,996 1,588 1,656
1,577 1,748 1,812 1,263 1,033 1,146 1,836 1,818 1,571 1,687
1,556 1,736 1,792 1,209 1,034 1,152 2,081 1,803 1,733 1,625
1,563 1,743 1,761 1,154 980 1,200 2,191 1,843 1,889 1,626
1,559 1,864 1,767 1,156 988 1,183 2,391 1,877 1,698 1,640
1,578 1,832 1,750 1,133 991 1,288 2,471 1,713 1,654 1,598
1,546 1,770 1,694 1,037 905 1,439 2,123 1,737 1,867 1,585
1,560 1,819 1,630 1,027 911 1,543 2,322 1,832 1,848 1,670
1,532 1,694 1,769 1,240 987 1,263 2,007 2,008 1,730 1,696
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
40
In Dollars Per Metric Ton
COCOA
Average Open Interest of Cocoa Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
90,478 86,960 90,574 77,067 100,540 132,711 97,563 96,375 88,879 117,091
93,533 90,589 82,205 72,324 110,316 119,459 98,169 91,944 84,078 115,007
98,049 96,771 78,022 69,221 106,056 114,036 96,336 83,625 99,918 144,055
95,390 96,956 73,237 65,856 102,382 102,275 98,851 83,230 100,429 124,417
96,346 94,651 79,294 71,990 113,239 107,008 103,746 95,307 108,150 124,925
88,232 97,385 74,347 75,195 111,948 111,224 100,701 96,813 99,476 128,203
80,873 101,815 74,295 70,787 112,864 104,473 107,080 89,846 103,350 126,388
77,134 101,138 73,975 69,939 117,260 99,280 102,441 78,197 111,318 129,562
77,942 106,487 71,978 74,572 123,463 92,235 107,294 76,468 101,998 118,468
79,572 108,263 74,139 79,770 138,523 96,204 107,880 86,392 119,033 132,629
77,139 99,544 74,127 89,035 139,141 93,088 82,236 99,038 117,876 131,733
78,592 97,009 73,480 92,609 138,266 92,326 82,844 94,010 118,769 123,302
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of Cocoa Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
177,720 180,669 175,844 136,109 156,812 311,900 155,699 172,845 174,684 185,624
226,701 172,510 145,311 155,090 231,562 168,587 187,550 215,240 180,693 239,511
213,189 219,896 171,333 141,090 232,803 164,131 129,833 136,564 181,667 231,917
242,988 235,020 192,120 180,837 186,837 136,021 217,590 179,956 244,946 249,209
164,749 130,041 143,602 130,019 147,072 154,397 160,364 176,969 174,452 134,330
183,544 251,471 183,719 230,925 267,470 201,299 220,289 207,255 238,201 288,809
159,070 186,280 131,642 125,360 124,906 108,189 176,450 143,888 219,018 151,339
164,719 200,707 156,737 144,290 191,849 207,569 209,249 206,428 260,025 252,868
107,634 168,981 115,066 147,124 111,740 118,428 138,394 146,113 146,090 222,122
167,227 204,394 125,320 143,335 174,216 124,884 207,310 197,316 150,443 182,337
185,226 180,805 155,280 209,608 186,515 202,847 162,982 209,775 290,227 283,663
128,809 143,735 114,606 124,249 98,266 107,565 114,270 135,857 128,604 191,198
2,121,576 2,274,509 1,810,580 1,868,036 2,110,048 2,005,817 2,079,980 2,128,206 2,389,050 2,612,927
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
41
Coconut Oil and Copra Coconut oil and copra come from the fruit of the coconut palm tree, which originated in Southeast Asia. Coconut oil has been used for thousands of years as cooking oil, and is still a staple in the diets of many people living in tropical areas. Until shortages of imported oil developed during WWII, Americans also used coconut oil for cooking. Copra is the meaty inner lining of the coconut. It is an oil-rich pulp with a light, slightly sweet, nutty flavor. Copra is used mainly as a source of coconut oil and is also used shredded for baking. High-quality copra contains about 65% to 72% oil, and oil made from the copra is called crude coconut oil. Crude coconut oil is processed from copra by expeller press and solvent extraction. It is not considered fit for human consumption until it has been refined, which consists of neutralizing, bleaching and deodorizing it at high heat with a vacuum. The remaining oil cake obtained as a by-product is used for livestock feed. Premium grade coconut oil, also called virgin coconut oil, is oil made from the first pressing without the addition of any chemicals. Premium grade coconut oil is more expensive than refined or crude oil because the producers use only selected raw materials and there is a lower production yield due to only one pressing. Coconut oil accounts for approximately 20% of all vegetable oils used worldwide. Coconut oil is used in margarines, vegetable shortening, salad oils, confections, and in sports drinks to boost energy and enhance athletic perfor-
World Production of Copra Year
India Indonesia
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 20053
720 720 735 718 700 710 713 690 700 650
1
Preliminary.
2
3
Year
1
Preliminary.
42
2
612 756 652 458 787 700 773 752 727 737
Estimate.
Trade – Copra is generally crushed in the country of origin, meaning that less than 4% of copra is exported and the rest is exported in the form of coconut oil. World exports of coconut oil in 2004-05 rose by +0.6% yr/yr to 1.862 million metric tons.
Mexico
Mozambique
New Guinea
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vanuatu
Vietnam
World Total
75 45 43 36 45 45 45 45 45 45
60 60 50 48 49 49 50 51 51 50
204 217 237 199 202 198 203 183 182 184
75 76 76 73 75 75 75 72 75 75
178 159 143 146 152 70 71 85 89 90
1,725 2,210 2,270 1,250 2,140 2,790 2,065 2,390 1,980 2,000
75 67 71 68 98 95 70 75 85 67
61 61 61 65 69 69 61 65 70 65
33 34 43 30 27 24 10 20 28 25
210 96 68 72 45 50 52 53 54 52
4,880 5,363 5,077 3,874 5,248 5,668 5,004 5,281 4,885 4,834
Forecast.
35 35 39 51 54 48 45 41 41 41 3
Demand – Virtually all of world production of copra in 2004-05 went for crushing into coconut meal and oil (99%). World consumption of coconut oil in 2004-05 fell –12.5% yr/ yr to a 5-year low of 2.990 million metric tons, well below the record of 3.350 million metric tons in 2000-01.
Malaysia
Source: The Oil World
--------------------- Production --------------------IndoMalPhilipIndia nesia aysia pines Total
397 424 442 431 421 419 421 417 419 398
Supply – World production of copra in 2005 fell –1.0% yr/yr to 4.834 million metric tons. That was well below the record high of 5.668 million metric tons posted in 2001. The world’s largest producers of copra are the Philippines with 41% of world production, Indonesia with 25%, India with 13%, and Mexico with 4%. World production of coconut oil in the 2004-5 marketing year fell –5.4% yr/yr to a 5-year low of 3.011 million metric tons.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
World Supply and Distribution of Coconut Oil
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053
Prices – The average monthly price of coconut oil (crude) in 2004 rose +47.1% to 38.05 cents per pound from the 14year low of 21.94 cents posted in 2002. The record high of 60.21 cents per pound was posted in 1984.
Ivory C o a st
1,155 1,300 965 860 1,330 1,180 1,290 1,250 1,220 1,220
Estimate.
mance. It is also used in the manufacture of soaps, detergents, shampoos, cosmetics, candles, glycerin and synthetic rubber. Coconut oil is very healthy, unless it is hydrogenated, and is easily digested.
1,206 1,257 1,628 783 1,198 1,731 1,441 1,428 1,379 1,270
Forecast.
2,912 3,150 3,411 2,370 3,084 3,497 3,242 3,200 3,134 3,011
Exports
1,374 1,726 2,125 1,040 1,788 2,159 1,850 1,968 1,856 1,862
Source: The Oil World
In Thousands of Metric Tons --------------------------- Consumption --------------------------- ------ Ending Stocks -----European Indo- PhilipUnited Philip- United Imports Union India nesia pines States Total pines States Total
1,405 1,658 2,111 1,142 1,718 2,173 1,884 1,960 1,833 1,871
606 396 688 432 771 440 578 446 770 435 751 439 706 448 762 454 706 441 690 426
373 213 211 110 110 277 280 270 269 205
306 339 302 295 299 348 370 356 311 280
427 504 540 461 420 437 516 371 413 361
3,005 3,067 3,184 2,750 2,921 3,350 3,344 3,287 3,187 2,990
100 92 32 58 112 60 62 53 58 63
38 68 178 69 62 118 103 99 60 74
368 384 598 319 411 572 505 410 334 364
COCONUT OIL AND COPRA Supply and Distribution of Coconut Oil in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
----- Rotterdam -----
Year
Copra Coconut Tonne Oil, CIF --------- $ U.S. --------
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 1
487 452 391 468 357 208 245 286 424 450
Preliminary.
2
746 693 625 748 539 323 388 450 630 662
Estimate.
---------- Disappearance ---------- -------- Production of Coconut Oil (Refined) --------
Imports For Consumption
Stocks Oct. 1
Total Supply
873 1,188 1,440 791 926 1,100 1,150 838 840 844
163 83 149 392 152 136 260 226 219 131
1,036 1,271 1,589 1,183 1,078 1,236 1,410 1,065 1,058 976
Total Exports Domestic
11 11 7 11 14 8 11 29 17 17
Edible Products
Inedible Products
Total
Oct.D e c.
Jan.Mar.
AprilJune
JulySept.
221 120 141 144 221 237 294 305 330 341
453 471 472 380 371 297 302 310 274 280
445.0 324.2 397.8 363.2 442.3 534.9 501.8 546.7 594.9 623.3
127.5 77.0 113.4 89.6 69.1 135.7 139.5 128.8 160.7 153.7
118.4 61.5 103.6 82.9 117.0 128.3 126.1 137.0 132.8 157.5
132.8 101.5 100.4 99.3 129.6 146.9 115.4 155.6 162.8 160.8
66.4 84.2 80.4 91.4 126.7 124.0 120.8 125.2 138.6 151.3
941 1,111 1,190 1,021 927 968 1,100
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Consumption of Coconut Oil in End Products (Edible and Inedible) in the U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
47.0 44.1 51.5 39.9 49.4 49.3 55.4 51.2 50.0 46.7
54.3 44.8 48.1 44.7 44.0 40.6 41.3 49.3 51.7 52.0
60.1 52.8 59.4 50.8 52.7 45.5 50.8 56.8 58.5 47.9
60.2 46.1 54.3 43.0 54.6 42.5 59.3 50.6 54.6 48.8
68.6 41.9 54.5 41.4 51.4 48.3 53.9 52.3 48.5 51.4
54.6 49.4 47.0 45.4 56.5 43.3 46.4 46.7 55.6 55.5
55.1 49.9 49.3 36.9 49.1 46.5 50.7 48.9 52.9 47.2
47.9 48.3 50.3 33.3 56.2 45.6 51.8 49.6 55.1 58.1
44.9 66.9 53.7 46.2 54.7 48.4 45.9 50.3 48.9 49.2
49.6 53.4 49.4 41.5 44.1 50.3 54.3 47.8 48.2 52.8
50.3 43.9 50.0 43.6 44.3 44.4 56.1 41.8 64.3 53.4
47.9 48.0 42.1 38.8 43.0 45.5 49.4 38.5 51.7 57.3
640.7 589.5 609.6 505.5 600.0 550.2 615.4 583.7 640.0 620.4
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Stocks of Coconut Oil (Crude and Refined) in the U.S., on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
164.7 125.9 274.2 401.7 93.6 245.4 245.9 195.2 167.2 225.9
229.1 147.4 332.4 446.5 123.6 280.3 238.8 194.0 160.3 163.7
200.4 141.1 344.5 387.5 100.1 357.8 249.6 214.3 192.6 188.4
217.7 204.5 337.4 366.3 99.6 276.5 251.3 224.9 181.7 191.0
173.6 174.5 318.8 309.8 102.3 286.9 233.5 223.7 131.4 170.6
175.9 161.3 300.6 240.5 104.0 194.3 231.6 187.8 108.7 187.7
171.5 143.8 366.3 134.7 137.7 254.4 303.3 162.2 90.6 263.5
116.7 143.4 424.6 197.5 163.6 260.9 301.6 202.9 132.8 250.4
113.8 154.3 434.4 191.8 161.4 246.4 245.8 195.6 149.2 253.7
84.0 149.6 392.6 152.0 136.4 259.7 226.5 218.9 131.3 242.1
78.6 162.1 431.8 106.4 178.1 234.1 273.8 184.6 147.7 252.3
65.0 194.2 447.3 142.2 161.6 231.3 264.1 186.1 182.5 273.3
NA = Not available.
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Price of Coconut Oil (Crude) Tank Cars in New York Year
1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
Preliminary.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
In Millions of Pounds
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
32.50 35.80 44.20 37.25 35.38 40.88 26.00 16.38 26.00 32.00
32.00 36.63 44.00 37.25 35.00 32.94 24.00 17.38 26.00 33.38
31.13 36.75 42.88 37.25 34.00 28.81 22.75 17.25 24.60 34.56
31.00 38.75 42.50 37.25 34.06 26.63 22.50 18.75 24.50 39.20
30.50 39.50 42.50 37.25 38.25 24.25 21.00 20.05 24.50 45.00
35.00 42.25 35.00 37.00 42.13 21.90 21.00 21.13 25.00 46.00
37.90 41.80 36.50 36.50 39.83 19.63 24.00 21.06 25.00 46.00
35.63 42.80 36.50 35.50 36.08 18.58 26.50 21.35 25.00 46.00
35.00 47.20 37.00 36.50 46.00 16.40 26.50 28.50 25.00 39.25
36.00 48.00 37.25 39.00 46.00 16.81 26.50 28.25 25.00 32.65
37.88 49.50 37.25 37.50 46.00 17.50 24.50 27.13 28.75 31.25
33.69 50.00 37.25 38.50 46.00 15.70 24.50 26.00 31.00 31.25
34.02 42.42 39.40 37.23 39.89 23.34 24.15 21.94 25.86 38.05
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
43
Coffee Coffee is one of the world’s most important cash commodities. Coffee is the common name for any type of tree in the genus madder family. It is actually a tropical evergreen shrub that has the potential to grow 100 feet tall. The coffee tree grows in tropical regions between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn in areas with abundant rainfall, year-round warm temperatures averaging about 70 degrees Fahrenheit, and no frost. In the US, the only areas that produce any significant amount of coffee are Puerto Rico and Hawaii. The coffee plant will produce its first full crop of beans at about 5 years old and then be productive for about 15 years. The average coffee tree produces enough beans to make about 1 to 1 ½ pounds of roasted coffee per year. It takes approximately 4,000 handpicked green coffee beans to make a pound of coffee. Wine was actually the first drink made from the coffee tree using the coffee cherries, honey, and water. In the 17th century, the first coffee house, also known as a “penny university” because of the price per cup, opened in London. The London Stock Exchange grew from one of these first coffee houses. Coffee is generally classified into two types of beans: arabica and robusta. The most widely produced coffee is arabica, which makes up about 70 percent of total production. It grows mostly at high altitudes of 600 to 2,000 meters, with Brazil and Colombia being the largest producers. Arabic coffee is traded on the New York Board of Trade. The stronger of the two types is robusta. It is grown at lower altitudes with the largest producers being Indonesia, West Africa, Brazil, and Vietnam. Robusta coffee is traded on the LIFFE exchange. Ninety percent of the world coffee trade is in green (unroasted) coffee beans. Seasonal factors have a significant influence on the price of coffee. There is no extreme peak in world production at any one time of the year, although coffee consumption declines by 12 percent or more below the year’s average in the warm summer months. Therefore, coffee imports and roasts both tend to decline in spring and summer and pick up again in fall and winter. The very low prices for coffee in 2000-03 created serious problems for coffee producers. When prices fall below the costs of production, there is little or no economic incentive to produce coffee. The result is that coffee trees are neglected or completely abandoned. When prices are low, producers cannot afford to hire the labor needed to maintain the trees and pick the crop at harvest. The result is that trees yield less due to reduced use of fertilizer and fewer employed coffee workers. One effect is a decline in the quality of the coffee that is produced. Higher quality Arabica coffee is often produced at higher altitudes, which entails higher costs. It is this coffee that is often abandoned. Although the pressure on producers can be severe, the market eventually comes back into balance as supply declines in response to low prices. Coffee prices are subject to upward spikes in June, July and August due to freeze scares in Brazil during the winter months in the Southern Hemisphere. The Brazilian coffee crop is harvested starting in May and extending for several weeks into what are the winter months in Brazil. A major freeze in Brazil occurs roughly every five years on average.
44
Coffee futures are traded on the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F), the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE), the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), and the CSCE Division of the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). Options are traded on the BM&F, the LIFFE and the CSCE. Prices – Coffee prices on the CSCE nearest-futures chart in early 2005 continued the 2004 rally and posted a new 5-year high, appearing to confirm the 5-year rounded bottom chart pattern. Coffee prices in 2005 settled back during mid-year but still closed +3.2% yr/yr at 107.10 cents per pound. Coffee prices were supported in early 2005 by expectations for a –6% yr/yr decline in the world coffee crop for 2005-06 to 113 million bags, and for a sharp drawdown in 2005-06 world ending stocks to 14.9 million bags from 21.3 million bags in 2004-05. However, coffee prices were capped later in 2005 by expectations for a large coffee crop in Brazil in 2006-07, with the Brazilian government predicting the 2006-07 crop at +15% yr/yr near 42 million bags. The International Coffee Organization in January 2006 forecasted the 2006-07 world coffee crop at 120-122 million bags (+7% yr/yr), further capping prices. However, the International Coffee Organization is expecting world demand to be strong in 2006-07 near 120.5 million bags, meaning that most of the increased crop size will be absorbed, leaving just a small increase in coffee stocks in 2006-07. Supply – World coffee production in the 2004-05 marketing year (July-June) rose +8.7% yr/yr to 119.020 million bags (1 bag equals 60 kilograms or 132.3 pounds). The 200405 production level of 119.020 million bags was well below the record production year seen in 2002-03 of 126.649 million bags. The rise in production allowed ending stocks to rise +14.4% to 25.803 million bags, reversing some of the – 24% yr/yr drop in stocks seen in 2003-04 to 22.551 million bags. World coffee imports in 2004-05 rose +4.6% to 1.625 million bags, which was a record high. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer by far with 41.7 million bags of production in 2004-05, accounting for 35% of total world production. Other key producers include Vietnam with 12% of world production and Columbia with 10%. Brazil’s coffee production in 2004-05 soared by +30.3% to 41.700 million bags. Columbia’s coffee production in 2004-05 rose by +4.9%, but production fell in Vietnam (-5.6%) and Indonesia (-3.3%). Vietnam in recent years has become a major coffee producer, boosting its production to 13.5 million bags in 2004-05 from only about 2 million bags in 1990. Demand – US coffee consumption was little changed near 22.0 million bags in 2005, mildly below the 4-decade high of 22.8 million bags seen in 2000. Trade – World coffee exports in 2004-05 fell –2.3% yr/ yr to 82.244 million bags, which was a 3-year low. The world’s largest exporters of coffee are Brazil with 30% of world exports in 2004-05, Vietnam with 15%, and Columbia with 11%. The key countries from which the US imported coffee in 2004 were Brazil (which accounted for 20% of US imports), Columbia (17%), Mexico (7%), and Guatemala (7%).
COFFEE World Supply and Distribution of Coffee Crop Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
Production
Imports
Supply
Total Exports
B ean Exports
Rst/Grn Exports
Soluble Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks
33,088 29,095 24,883 24,400 20,892 22,765 20,326 29,407 20,766 23,568
103,786 97,687 108,953 113,518 117,172 111,342 126,643 108,799 122,409 113,246
1,091 1,220 1,435 1,274 1,484 1,617 1,494 1,795 2,213 2,382
137,965 128,002 135,271 139,192 139,548 135,724 148,463 140,001 145,388 139,196
84,509 77,939 85,133 92,692 90,468 87,652 91,710 90,764 91,854 87,736
79,918 73,249 80,855 87,531 84,384 81,098 85,029 83,683 84,337 81,395
196 193 269 288 289 338 280 324 331 328
4,395 4,497 4,009 4,873 5,795 6,216 6,401 6,757 7,186 6,013
24,361 25,180 25,738 25,608 26,315 27,746 27,346 28,471 29,966 31,202
29,095 24,883 24,400 20,892 22,765 20,326 29,407 20,766 23,568 20,258
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Production of Green Coffee Crop Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Brazil Colombia
28,000 23,500 35,600 30,800 34,100 35,100 53,600 33,200 43,600 36,100
Preliminary.
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag)
Beginning Stocks
2
10,779 12,043 10,868 9,512 10,500 11,950 11,712 11,053 11,887 11,550
Estimate.
3
Costa El Rica Salvador
2,376 2,455 2,459 2,688 2,502 2,338 2,207 2,106 1,910 2,000 Forecast.
2,498 2,040 1,860 2,612 1,624 1,610 1,351 1,343 1,258 1,300
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag) Ethiopia
Guatemala
India
Indonesia
Ivory C o a st
Mexico
Uganda
Vietnam
World Total
3,800 3,833 3,867 3,833 2,768 3,756 3,693 3,874 5,000 4,500
4,141 4,200 4,300 4,364 4,564 3,530 3,802 3,671 3,771 3,675
3,417 3,805 4,415 4,870 5,020 5,010 4,588 4,500 4,590 4,630
7,900 7,000 6,950 6,660 6,495 6,160 6,140 6,000 6,600 6,750
5,333 4,080 2,217 5,700 5,100 3,568 2,119 1,610 1,550 2,500
5,300 4,950 5,010 6,193 4,800 4,200 4,350 4,428 3,980 4,200
4,297 3,032 3,640 3,097 3,205 3,166 2,900 2,510 2,650 2,750
5,750 7,000 7,500 11,010 15,333 12,833 11,167 15,000 14,500 12,333
103,788 97,652 108,453 113,819 117,172 111,342 126,643 108,799 122,409 113,246
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Exportable4 Production of Green Coffee Crop Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
Brazil Colombia
17,000 12,000 23,100 18,000 21,000 21,400 40,100 18,800 28,100 19,700
9,279 10,483 9,418 7,982 8,970 10,360 10,452 9,798 10,627 10,290
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Ethiopia
2,130 2,150 2,154 2,347 2,157 1,988 1,902 1,829 1,667 1,760
2,268 1,805 1,633 2,445 1,473 1,466 1,209 1,201 1,116 1,157
2,300 2,250 2,234 2,200 1,101 1,923 1,860 2,041 3,165 2,665
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag) Guatemala Indonesia
Ivory C o a st
Kenya
Mexico
Uganda
Vietnam
World Total
3,856 3,850 3,900 3,964 4,139 3,110 3,382 3,247 3,346 3,249
5,282 4,025 2,159 5,640 5,038 3,504 2,054 1,543 1,481 2,429
1,115 1,005 1,125 1,662 841 846 903 824 1,057 979
4,450 3,955 4,050 5,138 3,822 3,200 3,400 3,469 3,030 3,200
4,217 2,952 3,580 2,977 3,085 3,016 2,820 2,430 2,490 2,590
5,463 6,717 7,200 10,660 14,916 12,333 10,667 14,467 13,917 11,733
79,817 72,986 83,162 88,336 91,012 83,811 99,571 80,658 92,783 82,394
5,820 5,360 5,350 5,305 5,160 4,695 4,660 4,300 4,680 4,650
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. 4 Marketing year begins in October in some countries and April or July in others. Exportable production represents total harvested production minus estimated domestic consumption. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
1
Coffee Imports in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Brazil Colombia
2,042 2,446 2,804 4,847 2,747 3,007 5,060 5,321 4,475 4,464
Preliminary.
3,050 3,260 3,510 3,418 3,191 3,272 3,596 3,883 3,714 4,090
Costa Dominican Rica Republic
483 609 776 783 780 915 987 914 957 920
257 155 165 80 73 50 51 80 2 2
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag) Ecuador
El Salvador
Ethiopia
677 442 377 461 177 230 145 133 157 74
402 501 501 550 1,209 507 470 569 524 406
137 308 184 77 91 80 74 101 121 177
Guatemala Indonesia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Grand Total
1,750 1,922 1,565 2,149 2,380 2,040 1,626 2,023 1,624 1,752
3,822 3,039 2,589 3,276 3,725 2,057 2,034 1,510 1,477 1,285
441 652 774 766 868 692 842 807 788 587
446 65 146 372 32 4 170 180 103 0
18,721 19,673 20,101 21,787 22,840 20,490 20,631 21,694 22,047 21,791
1,251 1,328 1,274 724 693 887 759 966 1,636 1,599
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
45
COFFEE Monthly Coffee Imports in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags2
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,824 1,582 1,747 1,742 2,189 1,747 1,652 1,994 1,813 1,938
1,657 1,837 1,893 1,866 2,092 1,690 1,364 1,755 1,635 1,942
1,753 1,966 1,827 2,243 2,416 1,906 1,613 2,007 1,967 2,073
1,395 1,792 1,587 1,787 2,003 1,825 1,697 1,916 1,862 1,960
1,444 1,738 1,540 1,602 2,199 1,823 1,672 1,715 2,049 1,897
1,236 1,583 1,412 1,691 1,960 1,685 1,547 1,710 2,034 1,892
1,329 1,783 1,386 1,488 1,912 1,863 1,802 2,015 1,784 1,779
1,341 1,391 1,478 1,639 1,815 1,605 1,794 1,732 1,766 1,456
1,364 1,147 1,369 1,491 1,598 1,430 1,850 1,712 1,708 1,602
1,279 1,215 1,499 1,470 1,583 1,502 1,877 1,750 1,684 1,751
1,485 1,184 1,423 1,639 1,546 1,581 1,807 1,525 1,798 1,691
1,828 1,629 1,837 1,903 1,527 1,833 1,958 1,863 1,947 1,811
17,936 18,848 18,998 20,561 22,840 20,490 20,631 21,694 22,047 21,791
Preliminary.
2
132.276 pounds per bag.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Price of Braz ilian1 Coffee in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
127.54 127.28 179.83 99.43 97.68 62.38 42.56 49.14 64.32 94.00
144.05 160.21 177.78 91.72 91.51 62.50 42.79 48.54 66.08 108.05
140.99 179.75 154.84 88.90 89.93 60.35 48.79 43.77 65.79 117.03
132.92 183.73 141.11 86.14 86.46 55.11 49.90 48.71 62.89 112.82
134.76 209.62 124.89 96.29 87.23 57.19 45.19 51.06 64.31 111.89
125.44 184.21 104.09 91.69 78.32 51.86 42.96 47.11 67.62 105.08
106.93 158.52 96.04 78.13 79.89 46.43 43.58 49.64 59.39 94.66
108.28 158.25 101.92 76.67 70.57 46.49 40.55 52.88 60.25 95.66
103.10 167.77 92.76 70.43 71.14 42.42 44.46 55.19 69.46 87.02
105.77 152.12 91.32 78.74 72.28 38.63 45.28 53.51 68.63 94.54
103.76 149.07 96.67 98.41 68.95 42.28 48.37 54.15 80.20 99.35
103.71 171.12 100.28 109.47 64.39 41.60 46.70 56.92 89.17 96.23
119.77 166.80 121.81 88.84 79.86 50.60 45.09 50.89 68.18 101.36
And other Arabicas.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Cents Per Pound ----- Spot, New York (1826 - 1900) Santos No. 4 (Jan. 1901 - July 1975) Brazilian, New York (Aug. 1975 - date) - - - Colombian Maniz, New York (Jan. 1948 - July 1953) Colombian Medellin, New York (Aug. 1953 - Dec. 1977) Colombian, New York (Jan. 1978 - date)
Exchange Closed Sep. 1941 - Sep. 1946
46
COFFEE Average Monthly Retail 1 Price of Coffee in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
402.5 343.5 365.4 322.4 293.6 299.9 289.2 304.9
397.3 342.8 367.7 321.7 294.6 292.4 285.6 294.0
403.3 347.6 363.3 320.5 285.9 293.3 293.2 304.0
395.9 346.6 358.4 312.8 297.6 300.8 290.8 324.0
387.8 349.5 353.1 309.7 301.1 293.7 283.1 332.9
378.6 342.1 343.1 315.6 293.8 293.1 275.0 341.6
377.1 342.0 344.6 309.7 297.7 294.4 287.8 333.4
370.4 342.8 344.4 304.6 292.9 292.1 287.8 342.8
362.0 339.3 333.9 302.5 292.1 291.9 287.4 337.6
350.3 348.2 331.7 301.5 287.2 282.5 284.0 344.7
348.2 333.7 324.3 298.8 288.2 277.9 277.8 329.3
344.6 334.7 321.2 291.3 283.8 287.5 277.6 323.5
376.5 342.7 345.9 309.3 292.4 291.6 284.9 326.1
Roasted in 13.1 to 20 ounce cans.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Average Price of Colombian Mild Arabicas1 in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
184.21 123.07 130.13 75.33 63.46 69.68 76.61 110.03
190.59 116.92 124.73 76.70 65.64 69.60 79.34 124.34
166.07 117.05 119.51 76.94 71.16 61.82 80.12 137.10
158.17 114.02 112.67 78.25 70.17 66.12 77.08 129.80
146.33 123.95 110.31 80.92 63.44 67.56 80.61 128.36
135.83 121.45 100.30 74.38 60.86 65.01 85.62 122.47
125.03 107.05 101.67 69.70 59.60 67.84 78.27 112.48
129.45 105.28 91.87 73.50 58.98 68.65 78.85 111.21
117.56 97.77 89.98 68.80 62.49 68.37 85.71 101.31
115.01 103.69 90.25 62.88 66.54 66.59 85.52 108.77
121.74 126.76 84.01 65.72 72.83 67.04 95.63 111.66
123.96 140.35 75.81 62.57 67.92 69.38 106.48 106.54
142.83 116.45 102.60 72.14 65.26 67.31 84.15 117.01
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Average Price of Other Mild Arabicas1 in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
175.04 110.99 109.17 64.98 57.34 65.22 74.25 107.07
175.87 103.24 101.17 67.00 60.51 67.60 77.51 122.20
154.82 103.23 98.26 65.88 66.38 61.66 77.29 134.81
147.08 99.69 92.76 65.68 65.78 65.35 74.24 128.80
134.35 109.10 91.76 68.94 58.45 66.47 76.40 126.21
121.56 104.21 84.10 63.79 55.12 61.34 82.24 119.87
113.86 90.85 85.20 58.47 53.07 62.32 73.64 108.45
119.89 87.64 74.52 59.68 52.02 63.60 72.99 108.43
108.07 81.06 73.83 57.71 57.58 65.50 81.22 98.17
107.07 92.22 75.43 56.23 64.05 62.58 79.90 106.09
113.84 112.74 70.47 58.96 70.15 62.36 89.88 108.81
115.54 123.56 64.81 55.63 64.75 65.01 102.19 102.68
132.25 101.54 85.12 61.91 60.43 64.08 80.15 114.30
In Cents Per Pound
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
86.03 81.65 53.62 31.00 22.88 42.75 41.32 39.63
85.79 77.68 49.41 31.96 24.46 42.35 39.10 44.61
84.67 72.70 47.26 30.96 29.77 38.26 38.61 50.70
90.60 68.89 45.21 28.59 30.35 38.68 38.02 53.32
92.64 68.28 45.19 29.71 29.43 38.90 38.04 58.66
84.55 66.20 43.72 29.33 29.26 35.33 41.09 62.96
78.40 62.28 41.93 27.59 29.31 36.71 36.44 60.57
79.98 63.80 38.94 25.86 28.74 37.92 34.81 55.60
80.88 60.44 39.47 23.79 33.31 38.76 35.10 50.07
80.36 59.25 36.55 21.26 34.44 37.32 31.77 50.84
80.40 64.10 33.34 22.03 39.38 36.05 34.07 54.72
82.82 66.40 30.78 23.57 38.68 37.59 38.98 58.79
83.93 67.64 42.12 27.14 30.83 38.39 37.28 53.37
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Jan.
Average Price of Composite 19791 in the United States
1
In Cents Per Pound
F eb.
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Year
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Jan.
Average Price of Robustas 19761 in the United States
1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
130.61 97.63 82.15 49.19 43.46 54.04 58.69 79.35
130.78 92.36 76.15 49.39 44.30 54.07 59.87 89.40
119.93 89.41 73.49 48.52 49.49 49.61 60.80 101.44
119.66 85.72 69.53 47.31 50.19 51.87 58.80 98.20
114.23 89.51 69.23 49.38 47.30 53.19 59.91 99.78
103.84 85.41 64.56 46.54 45.56 48.90 64.28 96.29
97.32 78.21 64.09 43.07 44.70 50.89 58.46 88.48
101.25 77.22 57.59 42.77 42.79 52.22 56.98 85.31
95.82 71.94 57.31 41.17 47.96 54.10 61.47 78.79
95.01 76.36 56.40 42.21 50.79 51.72 61.10 82.55
98.26 88.22 52.18 44.24 54.69 49.81 67.74 85.93
100.73 95.63 48.27 43.36 51.68 52.44 77.72 86.85
108.95 85.64 64.25 45.60 47.74 51.91 62.15 89.36
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
47
COFFEE Average Open Interest of Coffee 'C' Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
28,430 38,516 30,042 36,194 47,829 48,914 57,897 69,508 92,388 102,163
28,224 42,888 30,539 36,693 50,620 53,050 66,825 71,682 103,966 107,715
28,127 39,092 30,211 41,294 50,565 58,111 66,798 76,934 102,281 117,419
28,793 32,644 32,617 43,846 53,662 57,722 66,207 77,954 98,430 105,245
28,394 30,324 36,345 45,947 49,692 53,481 66,289 72,716 96,738 96,063
25,096 22,552 36,651 45,675 50,293 58,311 68,994 72,155 102,276 94,139
26,188 21,497 37,531 45,411 45,513 57,888 69,197 72,110 89,446 93,303
25,799 19,818 30,074 46,725 40,177 57,243 69,635 68,259 88,021 89,662
23,929 22,788 30,429 46,255 40,133 55,674 70,079 73,809 83,001 85,518
26,202 25,109 32,940 47,956 42,906 58,345 73,753 79,038 78,047 86,489
27,599 23,636 31,677 46,271 43,187 55,317 73,431 81,253 83,360 81,525
27,201 28,577 32,816 46,764 45,086 53,953 69,343 76,670 107,832 81,234
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of Coffee 'C' Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
203,369 242,719 155,774 216,810 158,962 189,977 201,327 205,420 389,864 280,912
186,526 280,014 194,435 201,670 232,174 221,775 279,966 283,317 397,656 469,605
152,797 267,369 186,712 252,841 166,970 167,466 229,764 169,611 301,270 356,855
197,442 223,330 194,732 243,630 224,266 236,757 295,701 334,188 395,552 459,018
137,454 219,214 157,935 237,968 177,753 182,621 159,670 255,935 324,849 240,989
158,929 186,227 189,768 243,164 218,467 220,708 225,177 270,424 467,887 428,227
171,800 135,664 165,868 187,019 198,975 134,809 174,567 237,210 247,439 224,531
196,991 136,807 189,047 232,817 175,868 250,151 254,563 278,746 366,171 404,307
136,054 142,610 156,556 151,724 119,304 100,443 232,255 332,473 305,196 259,177
196,696 151,171 172,956 270,013 163,399 153,739 250,483 309,930 280,733 266,697
135,305 145,610 197,776 244,258 187,230 229,495 236,307 314,182 424,146 376,844
166,213 163,446 133,471 177,309 111,593 111,430 178,728 219,595 292,540 220,616
2,039,576 2,294,181 2,095,030 2,659,223 2,134,961 2,199,371 2,718,508 3,211,031 4,193,303 3,987,778
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
48
Coke Coke is the hard and porous residue left after certain types of bituminous coals are heated to high temperatures (up to 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit) for about 17 hours. It is blackish-gray and has a metallic luster. The residue is mostly carbon. Coke is used as a reducing agent in the smelting of pig iron and the production of steel. Petroleum coke is made from the heavy tar-like residue of the petroleum refining process. It is used primarily to generate electricity.
rels. That was down from 2004’s 3-decade high of 305.862 million barrels and far below the US production record of 369.305 million barrels posted back in 1957. US stocks at coke plants (Dec 31) in 2004 fell by -7.6% yr/yr to 351,000 tons. Trade – US coke exports in 2004 rose sharply by +82.7% to 1.319 million tons, and about one-half of those exports were to Canada. US coke imports in 2004 rose very sharply +149.2% yr/yr to 6.873 million tons. About 14% of the imports were from Japan.
Supply – Coke production in the US in 2005 (annualized through April) fell –0.5% yr/yr to 304.329 million bar-
Salient Statistics of Coke in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons
---------------------- Coke and Breez e Production at Coke Plants -------------------------------------------- By Census Division ------------------------Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
Middle Atlantic
East North East South Central Central
5,869 6,095 W W W W
10,115 10,835 10,272 8,287 8,642 8,614
2,821 2,558 1,979 1,925 2,068 2,104
Other
Total
C o ke Total
Breeze Total
Consumption2
2,448 2,608 7,893 7,712 7,738 7,356
21,253 22,096 20,144 17,924 18,448 18,074
20,016 20,808 18,949 16,778 17,173 16,909
1,237 1,289 1,195 1,146 1,275 1,165
22,423 23,242 20,202 19,603 19,436 22,492
Producer and Distributor -------- Exports -------- -------- Imports -------Stocks D e c. 3 1 Canada Total Ja p a n Total
852 1,054 981 606 380 351
686 795 793 610 436 596
898 1,146 1,069 792 722 1,319
2,012 1,884 1,508 1,554 1,395 943
3,224 3,781 2,340 3,242 2,759 6,873
Preliminary. 2 Equal to production plus imports minus the change in producer and distributor stocks minus exports. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
Production of Petroleum Coke in the United States Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
In Thousands of Barrels
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
22,312 21,502 23,970 24,543 23,420 25,640 25,093
20,084 20,017 21,112 22,849 20,030 22,380 23,806
22,148 21,654 23,299 23,529 23,810 24,025 26,896
21,444 21,161 23,713 23,850 23,768 25,086 25,648
21,410 21,785 42,465 24,713 24,831 26,789 27,209
20,943 22,095 23,345 23,305 24,054 25,874 26,950
21,741 23,321 23,838 24,556 26,080 26,263 26,612
22,180 22,835 23,339 23,939 25,746 26,151 26,410
21,249 22,455 22,321 23,465 24,072 24,259 22,209
22,166 22,121 23,306 22,527 24,588 25,899 22,039
21,695 22,628 23,350 23,497 24,208 25,897 24,372
22,866 24,262 24,203 24,913 26,560 27,599 26,575
260,238 265,836 298,261 285,686 291,167 305,862 303,819
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Coal Receipts and Average Prices at Coke Plants in the United States
Year
---------------------------- Coal Receipts at Coke Plants ---------------------------
---------------- Average Price of Coal Receipts at Coke Plants -----------------
------------- By Census Division, In Thousands of Short Tons -----------Middle East North East South Atlantic Central Central Other Total
------------------ By Census Division, In Dollars per Short Ton ----------------Middle East North East South Atlantic Central Central Other Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
7,784 7,971 W W W W
Preliminary.
13,524 14,020 13,084 11,184 11,252 11,591
3,571 3,209 2,678 2,335 2,452 2,710
W = Withheld proprietary data.
3,276 3,520 10,622 10,136 10,019 9,795
28,155 28,720 26,384 23,655 23,723 24,096
44.33 42.89 W W W W
47.74 45.62 47.53 52.80 52.94 63.30
------------------- Coal Carboniz ed at Coke Plants -------------------
Preliminary.
7,799 8,129 W W W W
13,404 13,971 12,981 11,154 11,410 11,322
3,584 3,290 2,608 2,319 2,541 2,644
W = Withheld proprietary data.
45.85 44.38 46.42 50.67 50.63 61.50
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------ Stocks at Coke Plants, Dec. 31 -----------------------------------
---------------------------- By Census Division ----------------------------- -------------------------- By Census Division ---------------------------Middle East North East South Middle East North East South Atlantic Central Central Other Total Atlantic Central Central Other Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
W W W W W W
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Coal Carboniz ed and Coke and Breez e Stocks at Coke Plants in the U.S.
Year
45.28 44.74 47.69 50.03 48.20 59.16
3,321 3,549 10,486 10,183 10,297 9,704
28,108 28,939 26,075 23,656 24,248 23,670
69 148 W W W W
500 628 637 424 233 166
157 166 266 155 135 154
277 255 607 169 144 144
1,003 1,197 1,510 748 512 464
C o ke Total
Breeze Total
852 1,054 981 606 380 351
150 143 88 141 132 113
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
49
Copper The word copper comes from name of the Mediterranean island Cyprus that was a primary source of the metal. Dating back more than 10,000 years, copper is the oldest metal used by humans. From the Pyramid of Cheops in Egypt, archeologists recovered a portion of a water plumbing system whose copper tubing was found in serviceable condition after more than 5,000 years.
included very strong copper demand, particularly from China, flat mining and scrap production, and continued production deficits. That pushed global copper inventories to the lowest levels seen in more than a decade and caused a scramble by copper consumers to secure physical supplies of the metal. Supply – World production of copper in 2005 rose by +2.1% yr/yr to 14.900 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest copper producers are Chile with 35.7% of world production, the US (7.7%), Indonesia (7.0%), Peru (6.7%), Australia (6.2%), and Canada (6.2%). US production of refined copper in 2005 (annualized through October) fell –6.3% yr/yr to 1.224 million short tons, which was far below the record US production level of 2.490 million short tons seen in 1998.
Copper is one of the most widely used industrial metals because it is an excellent conductor of electricity, has strong corrosion-resistance properties, and is very ductile. It is also used to produce the alloys of brass (a copper-zinc alloy) and bronze (a copper-tin alloy), both of which are far harder and stronger than pure copper. Electrical uses of copper account for about 75% of total copper usage, and building construction is the single largest market (the average US home contains 400 pounds of copper). Copper is biostatic, meaning that bacteria will not grow on its surface, and it is therefore used in air-conditioning systems, food processing surfaces, and doorknobs to prevent the spread of disease.
Demand – US consumption of copper in 2004 (the latest reporting year for the series) fell –3.4% yr/yr to 2.290 million metric tons, which was the lowest level since 1992. The primary users of copper in the US in 2003 by class of consumer are wire rod mills with 72% of usage, brass mills with 26% of usage, and nominal use of 1% or less by foundries, ingot makers, and chemical plants.
Copper futures and options are traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the COMEX Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). Copper futures are traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The Nymex copper futures contract calls for the delivery of 25,000 pounds of Grade 1 electrolyte copper and is priced in terms of cents per pound.
Trade – US exports of copper in 2005 (annualized through September) plunged by 65% yr/yr to 41,853 metric tons, falling from the 9-year high of 118,350 metric tons seen in 2004. US imports of copper in 2005 (annualized through September) rose by +15.2% yr/yr to 930,000 metric tons, recovering from the 7-year low of 807,000 metric tons seen in 2004.
Prices – Nymex copper futures prices in 2005 extended the rally that started in 2002 and soared to a new record high of $2.9990 per pound in December 2005. Copper prices have nearly quadrupled in the past 4 years. Bullish factors
World Mine Production of Copper (Content of Ore) Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
Australia
Canada3
Chile
397.8 547.3 558.0 607.0 739.0 829.0 871.0 883.0 830.0 854.0
726.3 688.4 659.5 705.8 620.1 633.9 633.5 603.5 557.6 564.0
2,488.6 3,115.8 3,392.0 3,686.8 4,391.2 4,602.4 4,739.0 4,581.0 4,900.0 5,410.0
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Recoverable. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
China
Indonesia
Mexico
Peru
Poland
Russia4
445 439 511 504 533 613 605 585 610 620
443.6 507.5 529.1 780.8 766.0 1,012.1 1,081.0 1,160.0 978.7 840.0
333.6 340.7 390.5 384.6 381.2 364.6 371.1 329.6 361.0 406.0
409.7 484.2 506.5 483.3 536.4 553.9 722.0 843.2 831.2 1,040.0
384.2 421.9 414.8 436.2 463.2 454.1 474.0 502.8 495.0 531.0
525 523 505 500 530 570 600 695 675 675
4
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Zambia
World Total
161.6 152.6 153.1 166.0 144.3 137.1 141.9 129.6 89.5
1,850 1,920 1,940 1,860 1,600 1,440 1,340 1,140 1,120 1,160
316.0 334.0 352.9 315.0 280.0 249.1 312.0 330.0 330.0 427.0
10,000 11,000 11,500 12,100 12,800 13,200 13,700 13,600 13,600 14,600
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
24.0 29.5 91.5 93.9 91.6 64.7 269.2 399.3 280.9 48.2
12.1 19.0 100.7 101.8 95.6 79.3 284.8 395.2 262.7 45.8
12.8 24.8 112.3 112.3 95.6 90.0 304.0 373.7 241.9 46.8
13.9 43.6 112.6 123.1 95.9 105.1 314.1 362.7 213.3 43.3
20.7 49.5 107.6 132.6 865.2 126.5 326.0 351.2 171.7 30.1
13.2 43.0 84.8 131.7 75.0 150.9 337.4 336.7 130.7 22.0
7.4 46.3 63.5 133.7 73.6 165.1 355.7 320.5 95.1 15.3
17.3 30.0 55.7 120.2 73.2 176.1 374.6 310.6 79.0 11.0
22.1 46.5 56.6 108.8 62.8 186.8 375.9 303.9 62.3 9.3
21.7 61.5 67.7 97.5 62.3 199.6 380.3 299.0 49.2 7.2
30.8 67.8 69.4 90.9 63.4 211.0 381.6 294.4 45.5 3.7
38.5 79.8 74.7 90.9 64.9 236.5 382.8 288.1 42.4 3.7
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
50
United States3
Formerly part of the U.S.S.R.; data not reported separately until 1992.
Commodity Exchange Inc. Warehouse Stocks of Copper, on First of Month Year
South Africa
COPPER Salient Statistics of Copper in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons -- Stocks, Dec 31 --
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
1,850 1,920 1,940 1,860 1,600 1,450 1,340 1,140 1,120 1,160
1,250 1,300 1,440 1,490 1,090 W W W W
1,300 1,290 1,370 1,290 1,110 865 808 725 532
91 147 113 238 196 163 192 116 130
1,930 2,010 2,070 2,140 1,890 1,580 1,630 1,440 1,250 1,260
443 428 498 466 381 358 316 208 206 186
825 961 999 1,190 1,280 1,350 1,400 1,230 1,140 1,060
429 543 632 683 837 1,060 991 927 882 807
239 195 127 37 63 107 45 23 10 24
217 169 93 86 25 94 23 27 93 118
22 27 83 85 83 59 244 362 255
163 146 314 532 565 345 952 1,030 657 134
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Also from matte, etc., refinery reports. 4 From old scrap only. 5 For consumption. (copper content). 7 I ngots, bars, etc. 8 Old scrap only. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Consumption of Refined Copper3 in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 20032
Apparent
--------------- New Copper Produced --------------------- Imports5 ------ ------ Exports -----Blister & --- Consumption --Refined Primary SeconOre, Primary Material From --- From Domestic Ores --& Old C opper ConcenProducers in Refin- Foreign Total dary Re- Unmanutrate6 Refined7 COMEX (Refined) Solution (Reported) Copper8 Ores3 MInes Smelters eries New covered4 factured Refined
------------------------------------ By-Products -----------------------------------Wire Ingots & C a ke s Cathodes Bars Ingot Bars & Slabs Billets Other4
2,410.0 2,250.0 2,320.0 2,490.0 2,600.0 2,710.0 2,730.0 2,360.0 2,140.0 2,070.0
W W W W W W W W W W
37.3 31.3 26.8 29.4 30.7 24.4 23.8 24.0 22.8 20.6
73.2 75.9 80.8 81.1 76.2 79.3 101.0 95.9 72.6 41.8
W W W W W W W W W W
6
171 173 180 160 138 122 98 44 57
2,530 2,610 2,790 2,890 2,980 3,020 2,620 2,370 2,290 2,410
Blister
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------------ By Class of Consumer -----------------------------Wire Rod Brass Chemical Ingot MiscelMills Mills Plants Makers Foundries laneous5
164.0 181.0 181.0 194.0 184.0 166.0 175.0 140.0 126.0 153.0
2,540 2,830 2,940 3,030 3,130 3,090 2,500 2,610 2,430 2,550
2,060.0 1,950.0 1,980.0 2,140.0 2,170.0 2,230.0 2,240.0 1,940.0 1,710.0 1,640.0
568.0 533.0 588.0 597.0 659.0 691.0 723.0 623.0 593.0 587.0
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0
4.5 7.7 3.6 4.2 5.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
11.1 15.6 15.8 16.6 19.2 21.2 24.3 21.6 19.8 20.2
30.4 31.4 28.6 29.9 31.8 29.8 32.5 28.6 35.7 36.2
Total Consumption
2,680.0 2,530.0 2,610.0 2,790.0 2,890.0 2,980.0 3,030.0 2,620.0 2,370.0 2,290.0
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Primary & secondary. 4 1991 to date include Wirebars and Billets. 5 I ncludes iron and steel plants, primary smelters producing alloys other than copper, consumers of copper powder and copper shot, and other manufacturers. W - Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
London Metals Exchange Warehouse Stocks of Copper, at End of Month
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
355.1 194.2 365.7 646.9 807.3 349.9 855.5 833.8 358.2 46.4
348.4 216.2 376.0 695.9 824.1 327.9 910.9 825.9 281.6 52.5
322.3 177.2 339.5 722.2 755.4 400.5 950.9 813.2 187.5 45.3
303.9 145.8 262.3 748.2 697.8 445.2 973.8 768.2 151.3 61.0
309.7 133.0 261.8 776.6 605.7 431.3 958.3 740.8 132.3 44.4
263.0 128.3 249.3 754.8 553.4 464.7 892.1 665.8 101.5 28.9
227.6 234.9 260.9 769.6 487.8 651.9 893.6 612.6 87.7 31.6
275.5 278.7 307.7 789.0 449.2 661.2 896.6 620.3 111.3 68.0
240.7 332.8 414.2 774.0 401.5 729.0 870.6 580.4 91.8 79.9
122.1 344.6 460.6 793.8 380.9 737.2 863.2 516.5 77.9 65.1
96.1 338.8 511.9 779.7 349.4 780.4 862.8 467.0 59.8 72.6
119.6 337.8 590.1 790.5 357.4 799.5 855.9 430.7 48.9 92.3
Preliminary.
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
Copper Refined from Scrap in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
25.0 35.9 25.9 20.1 19.4 15.4 7.1 5.8 4.2 4.4
23.7 30.0 28.6 21.8 18.6 14.2 6.2 3.9 3.9 4.4
25.5 36.4 23.7 23.7 25.8 15.2 7.2 5.7 4.3 4.2
22.5 32.6 31.0 17.6 22.5 13.4 7.6 3.9 4.4 4.2
26.8 35.4 17.8 16.2 22.1 12.8 8.2 4.1 4.2 3.8
30.9 30.8 21.4 17.5 15.4 13.2 7.8 4.9 4.5 3.6
24.4 26.4 24.2 21.2 11.7 13.9 7.0 4.9 4.1 3.9
25.0 28.4 23.9 18.2 19.7 13.5 7.6 3.9 3.9 3.6
26.8 34.3 23.8 21.3 14.1 12.3 7.1 4.2 4.7 3.6
30.6 36.5 31.8 21.0 14.3 10.2 6.3 4.5 4.5 3.8
25.9 24.6 23.2 17.7 19.7 6.4 5.1 4.1 4.2
26.3 29.3 26.3 20.0 15.6 5.7 3.9 4.1 4.0
333.0 383.0 336.0 230.0 208.0 154.0 81.1 53.8 50.8 47.3
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
51
COPPER
Average Open Interest of Copper Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
47,771 54,468 69,607 76,861 82,289 77,952 72,823 81,820 91,726 85,363
45,706 56,022 72,302 73,109 73,778 76,721 79,806 81,499 88,136 96,537
42,732 58,205 67,154 75,318 68,026 78,034 79,156 72,484 77,158 116,004
46,771 50,574 68,670 70,534 75,520 83,647 75,229 85,485 71,705 120,138
47,284 56,740 65,033 76,341 69,531 72,970 74,350 77,704 65,531 98,240
52,558 56,774 66,002 70,842 63,786 85,495 80,981 81,509 64,879 106,218
56,564 47,767 63,271 75,640 71,389 83,690 82,661 82,868 65,310 109,156
56,549 44,632 61,116 70,084 79,565 88,782 102,056 94,517 71,096 109,481
55,408 49,612 60,520 80,188 83,546 87,004 99,225 92,768 81,162 102,652
58,124 54,912 62,944 72,240 73,609 88,166 99,470 106,924 85,421 106,829
61,031 67,026 67,984 69,179 74,161 85,809 89,213 103,218 81,928 110,972
55,807 67,502 76,846 69,819 70,349 68,981 79,218 90,208 88,822 104,062
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
Volume of Trading of Copper Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
184,431 193,543 172,133 159,147 220,488 240,588 217,598 232,921 213,536 199,938
173,689 221,504 223,117 288,394 276,374 246,052 233,704 269,806 385,848 391,949
157,553 190,000 197,652 230,716 195,668 247,722 164,747 249,306 265,312 298,181
210,836 218,607 264,061 296,162 261,971 279,348 254,259 274,079 340,236 469,849
200,469 164,728 175,956 224,221 232,971 260,697 218,091 221,364 203,906 288,399
255,172 238,918 217,316 319,157 241,854 317,001 267,201 301,709 280,882 475,756
150,445 191,609 202,596 244,567 187,453 159,394 263,395 252,713 208,415 227,917
174,351 198,156 213,541 267,325 283,328 298,639 303,642 324,175 310,299 435,848
166,537 197,746 196,355 220,958 171,080 129,622 195,637 196,481 212,082 252,733
250,420 202,615 195,255 193,628 243,342 190,469 232,731 230,413 245,011 265,234
227,800 203,376 250,986 231,399 266,051 337,589 276,492 363,865 317,220 458,258
160,216 135,368 174,642 177,288 197,544 149,520 179,789 172,438 207,878 186,780
2,311,919 2,356,170 2,483,610 2,852,962 2,778,124 2,856,641 2,807,286 3,089,270 3,190,625 3,950,842
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
52
In Contracts
Jan.
COPPER
Cents Per Pound ----- Ingot, Philadelphia (1840 - 1859) Lake, New York (1860 - 1900) Electrolytic, New York (1901 - 199 Electrolytic, New York (Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1983) Electrolytic, United States (Jan. 1984 - date) - - - Scrap No. 1, New York (Jan. 1927 - Dec. 1955) Scrap No. 2, New York (Jan. 1956 - Apr. 1988) Scrap No. 2, Chicago (May 1988 - Mar. 2002)
Producers' Price of Electrolytic (Wirebar) Copper, Delivered to U.S. Destinations Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
130.09 120.29 88.88 77.07 96.83 95.70 81.79 78.62 113.93 151.25
128.75 121.02 87.52 75.96 94.41 94.01 84.23 80.21 129.91 152.89
130.20 126.50 91.69 74.50 91.63 92.07 86.60 78.87 139.96 154.68
131.29 121.70 93.54 78.79 89.32 88.27 85.11 75.60 135.82 155.42
135.33 127.25 90.02 81.07 94.80 88.85 85.22 78.56 129.44 154.19
116.55 129.57 86.90 77.23 92.74 84.58 88.23 80.44 129.11 168.31
103.63 121.94 87.37 88.02 95.81 81.44 84.44 81.55 134.34 169.62
104.14 114.11 85.30 87.88 98.67 79.34 79.82 83.51 135.50 178.39
102.51 107.14 87.62 92.89 103.49 77.41 79.71 85.34 138.74 182.00
101.80 105.08 84.26 91.26 99.63 75.21 80.16 91.50 142.01 197.61
112.58 99.53 83.51 91.10 95.25 78.13 84.57 96.47 147.99 208.60
114.78 91.39 78.30 93.35 98.92 79.83 75.56 103.72 151.88 224.25
117.86 115.55 87.09 84.09 95.96 84.57 82.62 84.53 135.72 174.77
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Dealers' Buying Price of No. 2 Heavy Copper Scrap in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
87.17 68.73 53.26 36.32 50.00 51.62 41.00 41.00 56.65 90.00
82.90 71.63 52.58 36.00 50.00 49.16 41.00 41.00 69.00 90.00
83.24 77.50 53.09 36.00 50.00 49.00 41.00 41.00 69.00 90.00
83.29 79.18 54.00 36.00 49.15 49.81 41.00 41.00 69.32 90.00
82.95 77.33 52.60 39.60 49.00 50.00 41.00 41.00 76.00 90.00
71.48 78.19 49.64 41.77 49.00 50.00 41.00 41.00 76.00 94.09
61.43 72.64 48.00 41.00 49.30 49.14 41.00 41.00 76.64 100.00
62.00 70.24 47.71 45.09 52.65 44.00 41.00 41.00 90.00 100.00
62.00 65.67 46.00 46.19 54.60 44.00 41.00 41.00 90.00 100.00
63.00 63.74 44.00 48.00 55.00 43.48 41.00 48.17 90.00 100.00
64.84 61.31 40.00 48.00 52.65 41.45 41.00 56.00 90.00 100.00
66.00 58.43 40.00 48.67 51.00 41.47 41.00 56.00 90.00 129.52
72.53 70.38 48.41 41.90 51.04 46.93 41.00 43.99 78.55 97.80
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
53
COPPER Imports of Refined Copper into the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
43.1 55.4 62.8 64.7 84.9 105.0 82.5 60.7 55.4 85.2
41.2 48.0 49.6 53.2 67.8 91.6 87.8 87.8 48.8 66.5
48.2 43.6 59.9 68.1 85.5 90.1 53.0 69.9 70.7 75.8
49.6 43.6 64.7 59.9 92.1 94.4 92.6 78.5 59.3 63.7
56.8 61.0 57.6 62.3 83.6 70.3 59.9 72.7 70.8 107.0
44.6 42.0 52.8 63.8 84.5 72.7 76.2 62.3 51.3 64.7
53.8 53.1 45.0 73.0 89.4 61.7 80.3 74.0 83.9 75.8
64.8 73.3 51.7 84.5 83.0 66.3 90.5 78.1 78.7 79.4
62.3 53.8 71.1 90.3 98.6 83.5 69.9 81.7 91.7 79.4
46.1 55.0 52.7 81.0 112.0 71.0 79.0 82.0 68.4
61.8 53.4 62.0 59.0 100.0 110.0 82.0 73.2 77.0
47.2 42.0 63.4 77.5 73.7 74.4 73.0 61.1 51.1
543.0 632.0 683.0 837.0 1,060.0 991.0 927.0 882.0 807.1 930.0
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Exports of Refined Copper from the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
13.7 11.1 6.2 2.4 1.6 1.2 .4 2.5 11.0 4.5
16.5 9.8 12.1 1.1 5.3 .9 .7 .8 18.5 3.2
12.7 6.5 12.2 1.8 22.0 .8 3.2 1.5 23.9 2.8
12.3 6.5 7.5 1.3 12.2 1.9 .7 .6 28.4 1.9
10.8 71.9 7.8 1.6 18.1 1.0 .8 15.9 3.7 7.2
10.7 8.2 6.4 4.2 12.8 .8 6.8 23.0 2.7 4.3
15.7 6.9 7.5 1.6 6.7 1.7 7.7 5.1 5.5 3.0
17.7 7.5 6.4 1.5 4.4 2.6 2.6 4.1 9.4 2.7
14.5 6.3 5.8 1.2 2.9 1.2 1.3 4.3 .6 1.8
16.4 7.4 5.0 1.4 4.3 4.6 .6 4.6 3.9
12.8 8.2 3.6 3.7 1.2 5.3 .5 8.5 2.5
16.0 8.5 6.2 3.3 2.1 .6 1.5 22.3 8.4
170.0 93.3 86.2 25.2 93.6 22.5 26.6 93.2 118.4 41.9
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Stocks of Refined Copper in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
120.0 88.2 281.5 562.6 619.2 383.8 1,045.1 1,119.8 733.8 145.8
131.4 98.8 282.2 593.1 620.8 408.4 1,096.2 109.7 646.3 151.0
125.5 104.4 312.7 614.6 619.5 416.2 1,132.4 1,038.8 566.7 143.4
123.1 116.0 315.7 653.5 582.9 481.9 1,155.3 1,042.1 463.9 134.4
126.3 117.9 304.5 676.6 537.0 552.6 1,175.0 998.3 367.0 129.3
107.9 121.7 308.6 687.8 508.8 585.7 1,158.8 959.8 311.8 116.2
102.8 122.9 306.2 668.4 467.8 626.7 1,126.7 891.8 247.8 105.3
106.2 148.8 319.0 657.2 418.0 733.1 1,132.2 848.9 218.3 98.5
104.7 177.1 334.1 639.7 397.7 767.4 1,123.0 855.6 194.5 83.0
68.0 197.9 367.4 611.2 394.3 895.6 1,123.7 825.5 169.2 68.2
76.0 227.6 407.2 626.5 379.1 916.6 1,110.5 761.2 158.9 56.8
77.5 253.3 444.6 608.2 344.2 985.7 1,109.0 768.0 147.4 59.4
Recoverable copper content.
1
Preliminary.
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
Stocks of Refined Copper Outside the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
560.2 405.4 580.8 922.6 983.8 795.0 1,241.3 1,238.8 1,191.5 833.8
566.0 469.5 512.4 944.3 1,034.9 999.5 1,273.5 2,147.6 1,149.9 802.2
552.5 476.3 487.3 960.3 1,040.7 986.4 1,291.5 1,188.0 1,139.5 929.8
517.5 445.7 438.1 963.0 1,011.4 971.2 1,370.4 1,216.3 995.5 848.0
498.7 413.5 371.1 990.5 988.6 995.7 1,391.1 1,147.4 968.4 758.2
563.9 402.4 368.0 1,008.3 880.9 969.4 1,399.4 1,109.8 826.0 771.3
507.9 408.3 335.7 993.3 866.0 1,000.8 1,289.0 1,129.2 807.1 822.6
476.6 489.6 324.0 990.0 857.3 1,091.0 1,342.6 1,139.9 812.4 786.4
544.4 550.9 387.2 1,017.0 837.0 1,108.7 1,369.1 1,150.9 830.2 846.9
499.5 607.7 468.0 996.9 826.7 1,083.3 1,321.1 1,140.2 825.2 774.3
391.8 574.5 506.9 1,001.5 784.1 1,021.0 1,219.7 1,170.8 778.0 803.4
362.0 553.3 509.0 992.0 764.8 1,104.5 1,224.5 1,157.1 816.8 817.9
Recoverable copper content.
54
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
1
Preliminary.
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
COPPER Production of Refined Copper in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
210.8 206.0 214.0 185.0 157.0 155.0 134.0 124.0 104.0 102.0
197.6 192.0 204.0 178.0 149.0 144.0 117.0 110.0 98.9 102.0
209.7 204.0 216.0 220.0 173.0 156.0 124.0 118.0 105.0 104.0
212.4 202.0 209.0 198.0 144.0 145.0 129.0 98.7 111.0 105.0
213.5 198.0 197.0 186.0 161.0 155.0 134.0 98.8 109.0 109.0
193.4 179.0 188.0 175.0 146.0 157.0 128.0 106.0 113.0 101.0
206.1 207.0 197.0 163.0 134.0 146.0 130.0 110.0 104.0 100.0
199.5 203.0 203.0 161.0 149.0 143.0 124.0 110.0 107.0 102.0
198.8 213.0 201.0 172.0 141.0 148.0 120.0 112.0 112.0 100.0
223.1 222.0 217.0 172.0 140.0 149.0 129.0 108.0 111.0 95.2
199.3 205.0 207.0 157.0 147.0 152.0 120.0 101.0 109.0
212.0 212.0 217.0 162.0 154.0 150.0 119.0 111.0 123.0
2,476 2,470 2,490 2,130 1,800 1,800 1,508 1,308 1,307 1,224
Recoverable copper content.
1
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
S to cks o f R efin ed C o p p er in th e U n ited S tates, o n F irst o f Mo n th Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
75.3 135.4 103.0 55.8 120.0 88.2 281.5 562.6 619.2 383.8
76.3 152.7 87.7 39.6 131.4 98.8 282.2 593.1 620.8 408.4
67.2 144.3 83.6 37.0 125.5 104.4 312.7 614.6 619.5 416.2
69.7 132.3 72.8 22.6 123.1 116.0 315.7 653.5 582.9 481.9
75.9 146.0 70.7 33.1 126.3 117.9 304.5 676.6 537.0 552.6
65.0 153.6 70.4 30.8 107.9 121.7 308.6 687.8 508.8 585.7
62.2 137.1 73.3 27.0 102.8 122.9 306.2 668.4 467.8 626.7
71.2 151.0 81.1 50.0 106.2 148.8 319.0 657.2 418.0 733.1
87.1 128.4 74.6 60.6 104.7 177.1 334.1 639.7 397.7 767.4
99.5 117.2 66.5 71.1 68.0 197.9 367.4 611.2 394.3 895.6
110.3 124.6 52.7 69.4 76.0 227.6 407.2 626.5 379.1
107.1 107.1 53.6 73.4 77.5 253.3 444.6 608.2 344.2
R ecov erable copper content. 1 P reliminary. B eg inning January 1999, includes C onsumers.
2
New reporting method beg inning January 1995, includes C omex , L ondon Metal E x chang e, and R efiners. S ource: American B ureau of Met al S t at ist ics (AB MS )
Deliveries of Refined Copper to Fabricators in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
221.6 246.3 284.5 199.6 166.8 166.1 152.1 136.4 126.4 120.1
227.2 234.5 248.4 202.8 161.3 150.8 126.0 123.4 131.1 120.0
240.0 240.6 288.1 235.0 176.3 167.4 140.7 124.6 137.6 131.2
242.2 247.4 289.2 221.4 157.0 148.4 149.3 106.6 137.7 125.4
270.7 254.9 278.7 206.3 173.7 167.6 148.6 107.7 130.9 125.7
222.1 228.1 258.0 201.9 161.3 165.2 136.2 117.0 143.5 119.2
233.8 241.1 252.4 188.0 145.2 162.7 147.9 127.1 133.3 106.9
246.8 258.2 242.1 186.8 149.7 154.0 141.1 120.6 132.9 112.8
277.5 252.3 260.7 193.7 150.6 151.6 129.5 125.8 136.8 108.0
239.7 259.2 232.0 182.3 154.8 160.7 141.6 127.9 129.3 110.9
240.6 256.0 251.9 182.4 149.8 154.7 124.5 114.4 128.8 112.6
231.9 236.6 220.0 175.2 162.7 147.5 129.7 133.8 137.5 115.9
2,896 2,959 3,106 2,375 1,909 1,897 1,667 1,465 1,606 1,409
Recoverable copper content.
1
Preliminary.
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
D eliveries o f R efin ed C o p p er to F ab ricato rs Ou tsid e th e U n ited S tates Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Total
419.9 405.0 453.7 427.9 399.8 758.5 875.2 862.2 1,091.7 314.5
466.3 404.4 408.9 392.9 429.5 810.1 859.4 889.7 973.8 745.5
436.7 391.5 441.8 452.3 481.2 892.8 934.3 977.9 1,062.0
392.9 361.2 416.4 361.7 466.5 882.2 907.2 1,007.1 1,055.5
408.3 406.3 413.4 422.2 468.9 853.0 816.7 991.1 995.7
466.7 433.5 432.4 442.6 428.1 867.3 950.7 982.7 1,014.8
303.7 368.5 410.4 384.4 387.9 863.7 908.3 897.8 986.8
373.5 323.4 364.7 347.9 369.2 814.1 817.4 873.9 924.8
370.8 420.7 432.6 387.5 423.5 803.4 911.5 886.2 913.3
448.9 499.1 403.5 414.8 448.9 835.1 1,056.0 1,009.0 987.9
469.1 391.4 406.1 463.4 457.1 796.6 922.7 980.4 982.1
420.7 483.4 461.3 458.5 436.0 726.2 918.3 966.6 1,023.0
4,972 4,807 5,045 4,956 5,197 9,903 10,878 11,349 12,011 6,360
R ecov erable copper content. 1 P reliminary. 2 New reporting method beg inning January 1995, includes crude copper deliv eries. S ource: American B ureau of Met al S t at ist ics (AB MS )
55
Corn Corn is a member of the grass family of plants and is a native grain of the American continents. Fossils of corn pollen that are over 80,000 years old have been found in lake sediment under Mexico City. Archaeological discoveries show that cultivated corn existed in the southwestern US for at least 3,000 years, indicating that the indigenous people of the region cultivated corn as a food crop long before the Europeans reached the New World. Corn is a hardy plant that grows in many different areas of the world. It can grow at altitudes as low as sea level and as high as 12,000 feet in the South American Andes Mountains. Corn can also grow in tropical climates that receive up to 400 inches of rainfall per year, or in areas that receive only 12 inches of rainfall per year. Corn is used primarily as livestock feed in the United States and the rest of the world. Other uses for corn are alcohol additives for gasoline, adhesives, corn oil for cooking and margarine, sweeteners, and as food for humans. Corn is the largest crop in the US, both in terms of the value of the crop and of the acres planted.
into 2006, the market was looking for lower acreage planted with corn due to high fertilizer costs and farmers switching back to soybeans after soybean rust turned out to be less of a problem than expected in 2005.
The largest futures market for corn is at the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn futures also trade at the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F) in Brazil, the Budapest Commodity Exchange, the Marche a Terme International de France (MATIF), the Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires in Argentina, the Kanmon Commodity Exchange (KCE) in Korea, and the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE). The CBOT futures contract calls for the delivery of 5000 bushels of No. 2 yellow corn at par contract price, No. 1 yellow at 1-1/2 cents per bushel over the contract price, or No. 3 yellow at 1-1/2 cents per bushel below the contract price.
US corn production in the 2005-06 marketing year (SepAug) fell by –6% yr/yr to 11.112 billion bushels from the record level of 11.807 billion bushels seen in 2004-05. US farmers harvested 74.333 million acres of corn for grain usage in 2005-06, which was the largest crop area since 198182. Corn yield in 2005-06 fell to 147.9 bushels per acre from the record high of 160.2 bushels per acre seen in 2004-05. US carry-over stocks for the 2005-06 marketing year rose sharply by +14.7% to 2.425 million bushels from 2.114 billion bushels in 2004-05. The largest corn producing states in the US are Iowa with 19.7% of US production in 2005, Illinois (15.7%), Nebraska (11.7%), Minnesota (10.5%), and Indiana (7.9%). The value of the US corn crop in 2004-05 was $23.033 billion.
Prices – Corn futures prices came into 2005 near 4year lows due to supply overhang from the record crop size seen in 2004-05. Corn futures prices showed some strength during summer 2005 when drought caused concerns about large corn losses. However, the corn crop proved surprisingly resilient to the hot and dry weather, and the size of the crop turned out to be much larger than expected, causing corn prices to plunge during late summer and into autumn. Due to the dry weather, the corn yield in 2005-06 fell to 147.9 bushels per acre from the record of 160.4 bushels per acre, but that was still a very high level that was second only to the previous year. The 2005-06 crop of 11.112 billion bushels was down -6% from the 2004-05 record, but still exceeded demand and caused US carry-over to rise sharply. Specifically, the US carry-over in 2005-06 rose +15% yr/yr to 2.425 billion bushels from 2004-05’s 2.114 billion bushels and reached the highest level since 1987-88. US farmers struggled to find buyers for the surplus US corn, particularly since the rally in the dollar in 2005 made US corn more expensive for foreign buyers. On the world stage, corn production was roughly in line with demand, meaning the global corn carry-over in 2005-06 fell slightly by –2.1% yr/yr to 128.260 million metric tons. That was at the higher end of the recent 4-year range, but was well below the levels of about 160 million metric tons seen from 1996-2001. Going
56
Supply – World production of corn in the 2005-06 marketing year fell by –3.5% to 683.506 million metric tons from the record high of 708.325 million metric tons seen in 200405. The world’s largest corn producers are the US with 41% of world production, China (20%), and Brazil (6%). Corn production in both China and Brazil has nearly doubled since 1980. Production in the US over that time frame has risen by about 50%. The world area harvested with corn in 200506 fell –0.8% yr/yr to 300.2 million hectares, which was only mildly above the post-war record low of 293.0 million hectares seen in 2002-03. World ending stocks of corn and coarse grains in 2005-06 fell –6.9% to 164.9 million metric tons, which was below the 10-year average of 177 million metric tons.
Demand – World consumption of corn and rough grains in 2005-06 rose slightly by +0.02% yr/yr to 970.7 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The US distribution tables for corn show that the largest category of usage, aside from animal feed, is for ethanol production (alcohol fuel) with 1.575 billion bushels of usage in 2005-06, representing 53.6% of total non-feed usage. Corn usage for ethanol has nearly tripled in the past 7 years, and that usage category is likely to grow due to the high prices of crude oil and gasoline. After ethanol, the largest non-feed usage categories are for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) with 18.0% of US usage, corn starch (9.7%), glucose and dextrose sugars (7.7%), cereal and other corn products (6.5%), and alcoholic beverages (4.6%). Trade – US exports of corn in 2004-05 fell by –7.4% yr/ yr to 45.138 million metric tons, which remained far below the record high of 61.417 million metric tons posted in 197980. The largest destination countries for US corn exports are Japan, which accounted for 33.3% of US corn exports in 2004-05, Mexico (13.1%), Taiwan (9.9%), Egypt (8.3%), South Korea (4.9%), and Canada (4.9%).
CORN World Production of Corn or Maiz e Crop Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Argentina
15,500 19,360 13,500 17,200 15,400 14,700 15,500 15,000 19,500 16,800
Preliminary.
2
Brazil Canada
35,700 30,100 32,393 31,641 41,536 35,501 44,500 42,000 35,000 42,500
Estimate.
7,542 7,180 8,952 9,161 6,827 8,389 8,999 9,600 8,840 9,470
3
Forecast.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
European China Union
127,470 104,309 132,954 128,086 106,000 114,088 121,300 115,830 130,290 134,000
34,415 38,165 34,920 45,229 44,529 50,142 49,360 39,876 53,348 47,470
Egypt
India
Mexico
Romania
South Africa
United States
Ukraine
World Total
5,825 6,010 5,605 5,678 5,636 6,160 6,000 5,740 5,780 5,950
10,612 10,852 10,680 11,470 12,068 13,510 11,100 14,720 13,600 13,500
18,922 17,368 17,789 19,240 17,917 20,400 19,280 21,800 22,630 20,500
9,610 12,680 8,000 10,500 4,800 7,000 7,300 7,020 12,000 9,000
10,136 7,693 7,946 11,455 8,040 10,050 9,675 9,700 11,716 7,500
234,518 233,864 247,882 239,549 251,854 241,377 227,767 256,278 299,914 282,260
1,840 5,340 2,301 1,737 3,848 3,641 4,180 6,850 8,800 7,200
592,552 573,800 605,271 606,779 589,454 598,918 601,714 623,039 708,325 683,506
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Supply and Demand of Course Grains
In Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Crop Year Beginning Oct.1
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
323.4 311.2 308.5 300.0 296.9 301.2 293.0 306.7 302.6 300.2
2.81 2.83 2.89 2.92 2.90 2.96 2.98 2.98 3.33 3.19
909.0 881.2 890.5 876.9 861.3 891.8 873.6 912.9 1,008.2 958.5
World Trade
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Stocks as % of Consumption3
94.4 85.8 96.7 104.8 104.4 102.7 104.3 102.6 101.4 100.2
869.1 867.1 869.1 881.9 883.8 905.5 900.4 942.2 970.5 970.7
201.7 215.8 237.2 231.8 209.3 195.6 168.8 139.5 177.1 164.9
23.2 24.9 27.3 26.3 23.7 21.6 18.7 14.8 18.3 17.0
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Represents the ratio of marketing year ending stocks to total consumption. U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Acreage and Supply of Corn in the United States ------- Harvested -------
Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
F or F or Planted Grain Silage --------- In Thousands of Acres ---------
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
79,229 79,537 80,165 77,386 79,551 75,752 78,894 78,603 80,930 81,759
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
72,644 72,671 72,589 70,487 72,440 68,808 69,330 70,944 73,632 75,107
5,607 6,054 5,913 6,037 6,082 6,148 7,122 6,583 6,103 5,920
Yield Per Harvested Acre Bushels
In Millions of Bushels Carry-over,
----------- Sept. 1 -----------
127.1 126.7 134.4 133.8 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 147.9
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Off Farms
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
196.6 475.0 640.0 797.0 793.0 753.2 586.8 484.9 438.0 820.5
229.3 408.2 667.8 990.0 924.5 1,146.0 1,009.6 601.8 520.1 1,293.5
426 883 1,308 1,787 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114
9,233 9,207 9,759 9,431 9,915 9,507 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,032
13 9 19 15 7 10 14 14 11 10
9,672 10,099 11,088 11,239 11,693 11,412 10,578 11,190 12,776 13,236
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Michi gan
1,468.8 1,425.5 1,473.5 1,491.0 1,668.6 1,649.2 1,471.5 1,812.2 2,088.0 1,732.8
670.4 701.5 760.4 748.4 815.9 884.5 631.6 786.9 929.0 868.3
1,711.2 1,642.2 1,769.0 1,758.2 1,740.0 1,664.4 1,931.6 1,868.3 2,244.4 2,178.8
357.2 371.8 419.0 420.2 416.0 387.4 301.6 300.0 432.0 429.0
211.5 255.1 227.6 253.5 244.3 199.5 234.0 259.8 257.3 277.8
Preliminary.
---------------------------------- Supply ----------------------------------
On Farms
Production of Corn (For Grain) in the United States, by State Year
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service,
In Million of Bushels
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
Ohio
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Total
868.8 851.4 1,032.8 990.0 957.0 806.0 1,051.9 970.9 1,121.0 1,162.8
340.4 299.0 285.0 247.4 396.1 345.8 283.5 302.4 466.6 318.6
1,179.8 1,135.2 1,239.8 1,153.7 1,014.3 1,139.3 940.8 1,124.2 1,319.7 1,287.4
310.8 475.7 470.9 403.2 485.1 437.5 264.3 478.9 491.4 460.5
365.0 326.4 429.6 367.3 431.2 370.6 308.8 427.4 539.5 485.9
198.2 241.5 185.0 228.3 235.6 167.6 202.3 194.7 233.5 216.0
333.0 402.6 404.2 407.6 363.0 330.2 391.5 367.7 353.6 427.5
9,232.6 9,206.8 9,758.7 9,437.3 9,968.4 9,506.8 8,966.8 10,089.2 11,807.2 11,032.1
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
57
CORN Supply and Disappearance of Corn in the United States
In Millions of Bushels
---------------------------------- Disappearance ------------------------------------------------------ Domestic Use --------------------
Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
F ood, ------------------------- Supply ------------------------Beginning ProTotal Alcohol & Stocks duction Imports Supply Industrial
2001-2 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2002-03 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2003-04 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2004-051 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2005-062 Sept.-Nov.
1,899 1,899 8,265 5,795 3,597 1,596 1,596 7,638 5,132 2,985 1,087 1,087 7,954 5,271 2,970 958 958 9,451 6,756 4,321 2,114 2,114
9,503 9,503 ---------8,967 8,967 ---------10,114 10,114 ---------11,807 11,807 ---------11,112 11,112
10.1 2.4 1.7 4.2 1.9 14.4 3.4 4.1 5.2 1.8 14.0 2.5 3.0 5.0 3.0 11.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 10.0 2.0
11,412 11,404 8,266 5,799 3,599 10,578 10,567 7,642 5,137 2,987 11,190 11,178 7,957 5,277 2,973 12,776 12,767 9,452 6,760 42,324 13,236 13,228
2,026 492 482 521 531 2,320 549 563 598 610 2,537 589 609 676 664 2,686 643 637 700 706 2,960 685
S eed
F eed & Residual
Total
20.1 0 0 18.6 1.5 20.1 0 0 19.0 1.1 20.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5,864 2,200 1,540 1,166 958 5,558 1,986 1,547 1,141 884 5,795 2,166 1,571 1,166 892 6,162 2,175 1,618 1,312 1,057 6,000 2,251
7,911 2,692 2,023 1,706 1,491 7,899 2,535 2,110 1,759 1,494 8,352 2,755 2,180 1,842 1,556 8,848 2,818 2,255 2,012 1,763 8,960 2,936
Total --------- Ending Inventory --------D i sa p Gov't Privately Exports pearance Owned3 Owned4 Total
1,905 448 448 497 512 1,593 393 400 393 406 1,900 470 506 465 459 1,814 499 440 427 448 1,850 480
9,815 3,139 2,471 2,203 2,002 9,491 2,929 2,510 2,152 1,900 10,232 3,225 2,686 2,306 2,015 10,662 3,316 2,696 2,440 2,210 10,810 3,415
1,596 8,265 5,795 3,597 1,596 1,087 7,638 5,132 2,985 1,087 958 7,954 5,271 2,970 958 2,114 9,451 6,756 4,321 2,114 2,426 9,813
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Uncommitted inventory. 4 I ncludes quantity under loan and farmer-owned reserve. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Corn Production Estimates and Cash Price in the United States
Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
Gulf Kansas Average City Chicago Ports Omaha ----------------- Corn for Grain Production Estimates ----------------- St. Louis Farm No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 Price2 Yellow White Yellow Yellow Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Final Yellow -------------------------- In Thousands of Bushels -------------------------- ------------------------------ Dollars Per Bushel ------------------------------
9,275,870 9,267,655 9,592,089 9,737,949 9,560,919 9,380,947 10,369,369 10,362,374 9,266,397 9,238,356 8,886,009 8,848,529 10,064,452 9,944,418 10,923,099 10,960,710 10,349,841 10,638,661
9,311,705 9,743,399 9,466,977 10,191,817 9,429,543 8,969,836 10,207,141 11,613,226 10,857,440
9,359,485 9,206,832 9,836,069 9,758,685 9,537,137 9,430,612 10,053,942 9,915,051 9,545,513 9,506,840 9,003,364 8,966,787 10,277,932 10,089,222 11,740,920 11,807,217 11,032,105 11,032,105
2.60 1.99 2.02 2.01 2.15 2.49 2.49 2.73 2.13
2.36 1.88 1.80 1.82 1.95 2.29 2.23 2.50 1.82
1 Preliminary. 2 Season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings. U..S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Distribution of Corn in the United States Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
2.93 2.51 1.98 2.06 2.20 2.94 2.66 2.01 1.70
2.56 2.06 1.97 1.99 2.13 2.46 2.66 2.08 1.89
2.43 1.94 1.82 1.85 1.98 2.32 2.50 2.05 1.90
22,352 18,922 17,104 18,499 18,888 20,882 24,477 24,381 21,041
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Millions of Bushels
Livestock F eed4
Exports (Including Grain Equiv. of Products)
Domestic D i sa p pearance
Total Utilization
5,482 5,468 5,665 5,842 5,864 5,558 5,800
1,504.4 1,984.2 1,936.6 1,941.3 1,904.8 1,592.5 2,000.0
7,287 7,314 7,578 7,799 7,911 7,899 8,355
8,791 9,298 9,515 9,740 9,815 9,491 10,355
------------------------------------------ Food, Seed and Industrial Use ---------------------------------------------- Alcohol ----HFCS
Glucose & Dextrose
Starch
Fuel
Beverage3
513 531 540 530 541 532 530 521 535
229 219 222 218 217 219 228 222 220
246 240 251 247 246 256 272 278 285
481 526 566 628 706 996 1,168 1,323 1,575
133 127 130 130 131 131 132 133 135
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Also includes nonfuel industrial alcohol. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
58
2.78 2.35 2.23 2.26 2.35 2.71 2.94 2.48 2.52
Value of Production (Million Dollars)
S eed
20.4 19.8 20.3 19.3 20.1 20.1 20.0
4
Cereal & Other Products
Total
182 184 185 185 186 187 187 189 190
1,784 1,826 1,893 1,938 2,026 2,320 2,517 2,665 2,940
Feed and waste (residual, mostly feed). Source: Economic Research Service,
CORN
Cents Per Bushel ----- Contract Grade or better, Chicago (1863 - 1900) No. 3 Yellow, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - Apr. 1947) No. 2 Yellow, Chicago (May 1947 - Mar. 1982) No. 2 Yellow, Central, IL (Apr. 1982 - date)
Average Cash Price of Corn, No. 2 Yellow in Central Illinois
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
3.39 2.61 1.78 1.81 1.58 1.94 2.57 2.25 1.98 1.75
2.81 2.66 1.94 1.72 1.81 1.84 2.41 2.11 1.77 1.67
2.63 2.70 2.09 1.82 1.96 1.90 2.36 2.26 1.79 1.75
2.62 2.60 2.08 1.84 2.01 1.97 2.32 2.38 1.87 1.89
2.62 2.60 2.07 1.95 1.99 1.95 2.29 2.52 1.86
2.71 2.58 2.05 2.03 1.95 1.92 2.33 2.73 1.86
2.90 2.59 2.09 2.08 1.92 1.92 2.31 2.89 1.97
2.87 2.41 2.05 2.09 1.87 1.89 2.36 3.03 1.94
2.74 2.37 2.03 2.15 1.78 1.96 2.40 2.90 1.93
2.59 2.29 1.99 1.83 1.76 2.04 2.37 2.76 2.02
2.44 2.16 1.67 1.53 1.92 2.22 2.13 2.26 2.20
2.60 1.86 1.84 1.49 2.00 2.50 2.26 2.17 1.98
2.74 2.45 1.97 1.86 1.88 2.00 2.34 2.52 1.93 1.77
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Cash Price of Corn, No. 2 Yellow at Gulf Ports2
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
3.69 2.88 2.18 2.21 2.03 2.27 2.89 2.63 2.48 2.46
3.27 3.05 2.43 2.17 2.15 2.19 2.79 2.65 2.48 2.58
2.97 2.98 2.47 2.17 2.26 2.28 2.77 2.75 2.38 2.44
2.97 2.89 2.42 2.21 2.45 2.35 2.71 2.84 2.43 2.61
3.02 2.90 2.48 2.36 2.40 2.34 2.69 2.95 2.44
3.08 2.88 2.40 2.42 2.35 2.30 2.69 3.12 2.40
3.25 2.89 2.45 2.42 2.32 2.28 2.67 3.26 2.54
3.17 2.71 2.39 2.43 2.22 2.21 2.67 3.39 2.45
3.01 2.69 2.35 2.43 2.14 2.29 2.74 3.28 2.42
2.86 2.64 2.36 2.13 2.11 2.37 2.72 3.13 2.48
2.69 2.55 2.12 1.91 2.30 2.53 2.72 2.65 2.68
2.86 2.24 2.20 1.91 2.36 2.79 2.44 2.64 2.54
3.07 2.78 2.35 2.23 2.26 2.35 2.71 2.94 2.48 2.52
1
Preliminary.
2
Barge delivered to Louisiana Gulf.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
59
CORN Weekly Outstanding Export Sales and Cumulative Exports of U.S. Corn Marketing Year 2003/04 Week Ending
Sep 04, 2003 Sep 11, 2003 Sep 18, 2003 Sep 25, 2003 Oct 02, 2003 Oct 09, 2003 Oct 16, 2003 Oct 23, 2003 Oct 30, 2003 Nov 06, 2003 Nov 13, 2003 Nov 20, 2003 Nov 27, 2003 Dec 04, 2003 Dec 11, 2003 Dec 18, 2003 Dec 25, 2003 Jan 01, 2004 Jan 08, 2004 Jan 15, 2004 Jan 22, 2004 Jan 29, 2004 F eb 0 5 , 2 0 0 4 F eb 1 2 , 2 0 0 4 F eb 1 9 , 2 0 0 4 F eb 2 6 , 2 0 0 4 Mar 04, 2004 Mar 11, 2004 Mar 18, 2004 Mar 25, 2004 Apr 01, 2004 Apr 08, 2004 Apr 15, 2004 Apr 22, 2004 Apr 29, 2004 May 06, 2004 May 13, 2004 May 20, 2004 May 27, 2004 Ju n 03, 2004 Ju n 10, 2004 Ju n 17, 2004 Ju n 24, 2004 Ju l 01, 2004 Ju l 08, 2004 Ju l 15, 2004 Ju l 22, 2004 Ju l 29, 2004 A u g 05, 2004 A u g 12, 2004 A u g 19, 2004 A u g 26, 2004
Outstanding Sales
Outstanding Sales
7,625.7 7,682.7 8,251.7 8,274.1 8,451.1 9,228.5 9,062.1 9,633.6 10,206.7 10,238.5 10,243.0 10,600.5 10,312.9 10,341.5 10,318.8 9,846.9 9,763.3 9,150.0 8,985.7 9,112.7 8,944.2 9,043.2 9,441.2 9,521.8 9,512.4 9,094.4 8,330.2 8,706.6 8,829.1 8,449.5 9,050.5 9,143.6 9,657.2 9,921.4 10,214.9 9,698.9 9,781.1 9,893.6 9,449.6 8,519.6 8,093.5 7,523.6 7,533.2 7,158.1 6,791.2 6,203.0 5,775.4 5,170.1 4,677.7 3,861.7 3,019.1 2,177.1
460.8 1,318.8 2,127.3 3,021.0 3,800.4 4,660.7 5,581.1 6,490.0 7,345.8 8,062.2 8,974.8 10,219.2 11,356.4 12,365.7 13,311.5 14,737.0 15,578.8 16,607.5 17,611.1 18,483.4 19,427.3 20,309.7 21,064.4 21,936.2 22,932.5 23,721.9 25,059.6 25,995.3 27,065.3 28,139.1 28,853.9 29,983.5 30,619.0 31,280.3 32,080.6 33,102.7 33,754.7 34,904.5 35,759.1 36,742.4 37,762.9 38,492.4 39,292.9 40,187.5 41,212.1 42,157.6 42,963.9 43,981.7 44,747.1 45,793.6 46,769.6 47,704.2
Marketing Year 2004/05 Week Ending
Sep 02, 2004 Sep 09, 2004 Sep 16, 2004 Sep 23, 2004 Sep 30, 2004 Oct 07, 2004 Oct 14, 2004 Oct 21, 2004 Oct 28, 2004 Nov 04, 2004 Nov 11, 2004 Nov 18, 2004 Nov 25, 2004 Dec 02, 2004 Dec 09, 2004 Dec 16, 2004 Dec 23, 2004 Dec 30, 2004 Jan 06, 2005 Jan 13, 2005 Jan 20, 2005 Jan 27, 2005 F eb 0 3 , 2 0 0 5 F eb 1 0 , 2 0 0 5 F eb 1 7 , 2 0 0 5 F eb 2 4 , 2 0 0 5 Mar 03, 2005 Mar 10, 2005 Mar 17, 2005 Mar 24, 2005 Mar 31, 2005 Apr 07, 2005 Apr 14, 2005 Apr 21, 2005 Apr 28, 2005 May 05, 2005 May 12, 2005 May 19, 2005 May 26, 2005 Ju n 02, 2005 Ju n 09, 2005 Ju n 16, 2005 Ju n 23, 2005 Ju n 30, 2005 Ju l 07, 2005 Ju l 14, 2005 Ju l 21, 2005 Ju l 28, 2005 A u g 04, 2005 A u g 11, 2005 A u g 18, 2005 A u g 25, 2005
Outstanding Sales
Cumulative Exports
6,935.9 7,430.6 7,896.0 7,798.2 7,397.0 7,933.9 8,638.0 8,531.5 9,339.7 9,052.7 8,740.6 9,141.4 8,917.1 8,624.0 8,113.4 7,770.2 7,496.3 6,974.5 6,999.0 7,156.5 6,839.6 6,256.8 6,744.2 6,768.7 6,996.4 6,950.4 6,746.2 7,001.7 7,290.7 7,635.8 7,394.9 7,576.2 7,394.0 6,885.1 6,565.8 7,097.5 7,135.9 6,734.0 6,668.4 6,385.7 6,208.2 5,649.6 5,808.6 5,977.4 5,724.8 5,507.7 5,159.9 4,498.1 4,608.6 4,329.7 3,798.7 2,780.4
230.3 943.3 1,634.2 2,637.5 3,817.8 4,765.3 5,361.7 6,558.1 7,203.0 8,320.9 9,357.7 10,258.0 11,067.4 12,275.4 13,422.7 14,491.7 15,462.5 16,415.0 17,048.8 17,798.5 18,878.1 19,798.5 20,306.4 21,024.2 21,706.7 22,564.4 23,502.0 24,256.1 24,895.6 25,711.2 26,613.5 27,347.8 28,200.0 29,202.2 30,145.1 30,997.2 31,812.8 32,765.2 33,575.3 34,418.9 35,230.2 36,296.9 37,355.1 38,129.0 38,702.4 39,515.7 40,502.7 41,410.8 42,373.5 43,117.0 43,948.2 44,953.3
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
60
In Thousands of Metric Tons Marketing Year 2005/06 Week Ending
Sep 01, 2005 Sep 08, 2005 Sep 15, 2005 Sep 22, 2005 Sep 29, 2005 Oct 06, 2005 Oct 13, 2005 Oct 20, 2005 Oct 27, 2005 Nov 03, 2005 Nov 10, 2005 Nov 17, 2005 Nov 24, 2005 Dec 01, 2005 Dec 08, 2005 Dec 15, 2005 Dec 22, 2005 Dec 29, 2005 Jan 05, 2006 Jan 12, 2006 Jan 19, 2006 Jan 26, 2006 F eb 0 2 , 2 0 0 6 F eb 0 9 , 2 0 0 6 F eb 1 6 , 2 0 0 6 F eb 2 3 , 2 0 0 6 Mar 02, 2006 Mar 09, 2006 Mar 16, 2006 Mar 23, 2006 Mar 30, 2006 Apr 06, 2006 Apr 13, 2006 Apr 20, 2006 Apr 27, 2006 May 04, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 18, 2006 May 25, 2006 Ju n 01, 2006 Ju n 08, 2006 Ju n 15, 2006 Ju n 22, 2006 Ju n 29, 2006 Ju l 06, 2006 Ju l 13, 2006 Ju l 20, 2006 Ju l 27, 2006 A u g 03, 2006 A u g 10, 2006 A u g 17, 2006 A u g 24, 2006 A u g 31, 2006
Outstanding Sales
Cumulative Exports
7,863.6 7,985.8 7,817.6 7,564.1 7,735.2 7,645.1 7,379.6 7,149.9 7,353.7 7,315.0 7,748.1 7,813.5 7,759.2 7,432.4 7,334.4 7,037.3 6,618.9 5,991.3 5,905.2 6,184.1 7,115.7 7,858.4 8,455.0 8,829.4 9,280.8 8,934.8 9,246.3 9,442.6 9,141.4
10.3 436.0 1,350.7 2,307.1 3,088.6 4,111.8 5,343.4 6,291.6 7,303.4 8,220.8 9,284.0 10,251.3 10,917.4 11,938.5 12,955.0 14,137.5 14,916.1 16,013.8 16,713.4 17,656.8 18,582.6 19,502.3 20,517.6 21,340.4 22,379.6 23,328.2 24,379.9 25,213.1 26,425.7
CORN Average Price Received by Farmers for Corn in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
3.55 2.52 1.83 1.75 1.61 1.91 2.47 2.20 2.20 1.90
2.89 2.54 1.91 1.69 1.74 1.84 2.34 2.12 2.14 1.82
2.66 2.51 1.93 1.70 1.86 1.85 2.28 2.20 2.05 1.77
2.63 2.52 2.00 1.82 1.97 1.98 2.32 2.31 2.04 1.92
2.69 2.56 2.06 1.91 1.98 1.97 2.33 2.39 2.12 2.00
2.65 2.55 2.05 1.98 1.96 1.93 2.34 2.61 1.95 2.01
2.79 2.54 2.06 2.03 1.96 1.94 2.33 2.75 2.02
2.80 2.41 2.04 2.03 1.89 1.91 2.34 2.89 2.00
2.69 2.34 1.99 2.11 1.82 1.93 2.38 2.87 1.99
2.56 2.28 1.97 1.91 1.76 1.97 2.34 2.79 2.03
2.42 2.19 1.74 1.64 1.87 2.13 2.17 2.51 2.11
2.50 1.89 1.75 1.52 1.90 2.38 2.15 2.34 1.95
2.74 2.40 1.94 1.84 1.86 1.98 2.32 2.50 2.05 1.90
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Corn Price Support Data in the United States Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
CCC Inventory ------- As of Dec. 31 ------Owned Placed CCC Under by C C C Under % of ProAcquired Owned C C C Loan Aug. 31 Loan duction by C C C -------------------------------------------- Millions of Bushels --------------------------------------------
National Average Target Loan Rate3 Price --- Dollars Per Bushel ---
1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042
1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.98 1.98
Preliminary. (NASS-USDA)
1
2
2.75 2.75 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.60 2.60
Estimate.
3
2,002 970 561 1,132 823 -------------
19.9 13.1 6.1 12.3 8.4 -------------
Findley or announced loan rate.
0 0 0 19 0 -------------
----------------------------
44 42 30 2 15 26 36 24 18 16
1,598 579 756 81 ----------------
Quantity Pledged (Thousands of Bushels)
F a ce Amount (Thousands of Dollars)
26,318 677,115 970,590 1,129,915 1,129,915 1,420,878 1,393,947 1,394,561 1,366,513
53,474 1,232,669 1,764,291 2,062,308 2,062,308 2,590,443 2,562,172 2,557,874 2,622,823
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Exports1 of Corn (Including Seed), By Country of Destination
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year Beginning Oct. 1
Algeria
Canada
Egypt
Irael
Ja p a n
Mexico
Rep. of Korea
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Taiwan
Venezuela
Total
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-052
507 862 829 947 1,099 1,180 1,343 1,009 1,158 962
736 879 1,404 898 1,080 2,797 3,979 3,811 2,014 2,206
1,854 2,364 1,951 2,954 3,542 4,116 4,283 2,904 3,120 3,738
625 556 141 395 748 621 847 313 1,154 393
14,900 15,425 13,957 15,375 14,939 14,091 14,817 14,384 14,968 15,015
6,268 3,141 4,423 5,576 4,910 5,928 4,025 5,220 5,730 5,910
7,333 5,404 3,364 6,659 2,822 3,109 1,085 272 3,942 2,210
50 88 1 405 491 26 86 0 70 13
844 1,025 883 1,175 1,197 1,003 670 222 402 126
1,156 1,080 141 92 16 0 5 0 5 14
5,600 5,609 3,488 4,538 4,989 4,894 4,599 4,139 4,757 4,446
479 730 645 1,329 1,146 1,152 502 651 669 90
52,660 46,638 37,755 51,949 49,378 48,192 47,058 40,780 48,724 45,138
1
Excludes exports of corn by-products.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Stocks of Corn (Shelled and Ear) in the United States ------------------------- On Farms ------------------------Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Bushels
------------------------ Off Farms -----------------------
-------------------------- Total Stocks -----------------------
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
2,000.2 2,870.0 2,975.0 3,570.0 3,300.0 3,600.0 3,355.0 2,940.0 3,030.0 4,137.0
780.1 1,501.0 1,830.0 2,257.0 2,029.8 2,230.8 2,020.6 1,620.2 1,540.0 2,462.3
196.6 475.0 640.0 797.0 793.0 753.2 586.8 484.9 438.0 820.5
4,800.0 4,822.0 5,320.0 5,195.0 5,550.0 5,275.0 4,800.0 5,286.0 6,144.0 6,325.0
1,799.3 1,624.1 1,964.9 2,128.4 2,301.9 2,443.0 2,440.3 2,191.9 2,241.5 2,619.3
937.8 995.6 1,209.8 1,359.2 1,556.1 1,693.2 1,576.3 1,364.7 1,430.1 1,858.5
229.3 408.2 667.8 990.0 924.5 1,146.0 1,009.6 601.8 520.1 1,293.5
2,103.0 2,424.8 2,731.8 2,844.4 2,972.2 2,989.7 2,838.0 2,667.8 3,308.5 3,487.8
3,799.5 4,494.1 4,939.9 5,698.4 5,601.9 6,043.0 5,795.3 5,131.9 5,271.5 6,756.3
1,717.9 2,496.6 3,039.8 3,616.2 3,585.9 3,924.0 3,596.9 2,984.9 2,970.1 4,320.8
425.9 883.2 1,307.8 1,787.0 1,717.5 1,899.1 1,596.4 1,086.7 958.1 2,114.0
6,903.0 7,246.8 8,051.8 8,039.4 8,522.2 8,264.7 7,638.0 7,953.8 9,452.5 9,812.8
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
61
CORN
Volume of Trading of Corn Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,992.2 1,160.6 1,250.2 955.1 1,502.2 1,397.2 996.3 1,204.0 2,025.7 1,467.8
1,819.6 1,483.0 1,276.5 1,374.2 1,580.9 1,197.4 1,449.6 1,559.1 2,367.0 2,680.8
1,607.6 1,693.3 1,432.8 1,440.1 1,713.1 1,329.5 944.7 1,156.9 2,190.9 2,278.1
2,655.2 1,780.1 1,620.3 1,420.6 1,386.3 1,518.7 1,498.0 1,633.1 2,870.9 2,519.1
2,085.2 1,291.7 1,148.5 975.1 1,789.7 1,173.2 1,434.5 1,657.0 1,855.3 2,188.3
1,545.1 1,347.5 1,771.0 1,597.4 1,830.7 1,612.1 1,851.5 1,951.2 2,538.6 3,446.1
1,590.5 1,527.7 1,415.3 1,708.0 1,178.3 2,023.5 1,958.4 1,499.3 1,740.5 2,626.0
1,144.6 1,318.3 1,231.4 1,669.8 1,291.8 1,549.0 2,158.7 1,830.6 1,883.0 2,993.6
1,183.4 1,060.2 1,126.3 1,131.9 1,057.4 1,072.3 1,635.4 1,389.7 1,446.9 1,618.5
1,435.7 1,700.2 1,319.3 1,096.2 1,256.1 1,223.3 1,523.3 2,057.7 1,476.4 1,504.2
1,514.7 1,434.4 1,217.2 1,500.9 1,612.8 1,741.2 1,801.4 1,815.9 2,473.3 2,892.2
1,046.3 1,188.0 986.6 855.6 986.1 891.4 880.5 1,364.3 1,169.6 1,750.3
19,620.2 16,985.0 15,795.5 15,724.8 17,185.4 16,728.7 18,132.4 19,118.7 24,038.2 27,965.1
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Average Open Interest of Corn Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
500,837 305,779 328,020 357,682 445,999 454,326 459,314 455,967 543,985 629,286
508,496 347,392 341,444 363,153 478,892 469,027 464,368 469,611 641,380 654,066
469,697 382,261 358,221 357,126 482,080 440,548 431,923 445,343 678,041 659,684
453,707 351,852 366,657 343,624 487,758 455,718 430,712 411,983 704,868 673,818
403,118 290,649 337,703 338,467 476,891 424,386 411,346 406,987 637,417 677,308
350,066 274,760 327,237 323,658 445,018 423,840 430,856 385,775 621,898 702,369
304,265 267,531 297,894 329,460 391,967 389,898 458,081 384,561 566,465 713,077
298,894 281,194 318,162 315,858 387,289 387,710 509,069 383,590 562,172 733,578
302,170 307,415 321,992 316,247 356,583 370,315 501,523 356,181 548,816 714,197
326,373 378,453 332,337 410,955 397,966 419,447 485,859 420,680 606,307 794,427
332,809 379,045 342,868 461,037 454,920 462,930 496,998 470,165 639,531 852,459
306,256 331,386 322,157 389,187 414,851 416,593 450,016 447,455 588,889 774,187
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
62
In Contracts
Jan.
Corn Oil Corn oil is a bland, odorless oil produced by refining the crude corn oil that is mechanically extracted from the germ of the plant seed. High-oil corn, the most common type of corn used to make corn oil, typically has an oil content of 7% or higher compared to about 4% for normal corn. Corn oil is widely used as cooking oil, for making margarine and mayonnaise, and for making inedible products such as soap, paints, inks, varnishes, and cosmetics. For humans, studies have shown that no vegetable oil is more effective than corn oil in lowering blood cholesterol levels. Prices –The average monthly price of corn oil (wet mill price in Chicago) in the 2004-05 marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell –1.87% yr/yr to 27.86 cents per pound, which was well below the record high of 36.50 cents posted in 1973/74. Seasonally, prices tend to be highest around March/April and
lowest late in the calendar year. Supply – US corn oil production in the 2004-05 marketing year rose by +3.1% yr/yr to 2.470 billion pounds, which was 5 year high. Seasonally, production tends to peak around December and March and reaches a low in July. US stocks in the 2004-05 marketing year (Oct 1) rose +28.1% yr/yr to 153 million pounds. Demand – US usage (domestic disappearance) in 200405 rose +1.9% to 1.683 billion pounds. Exports – US corn oil exports in 2004-05 rose +10.7% to 860 million pounds. US corn oil imports in 2004-05 rose 6.1% to 70 million pounds, which is a new record high.
Supply and Disappearance of Corn Oil in the United States Crop Year Beginning Oct. 1
----------------------------- Supply ----------------------------Stocks Oct. 1
Production
Imports
Total Supply
102 135 267 117 104 119 153
2,374 2,501 2,403 2,461 2,453 2,396 2,470
42.4 17.5 27.0 61.0 66.0 66.0 70.0
2,518 2,654 2,698 2,639 2,623 2,582 2,693
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
W = Withheld proprietary data.
W W W W W W W
Production of Crude Corn Oil in the United States 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
384 800 502 W W 347 1,297
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
1,394 1,417 1,630 1,363 1,615 1,652 1,683
989 970 951 1,172 888 777 860
2,383 2,387 2,581 2,535 2,503 2,429 2,543
In Millions of Pounds
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
204.3 208.6 196.0 218.6 209.1 208.8 207.5
212.3 192.7 203.3 195.0 196.5 187.1 199.9
218.6 190.4 206.5 212.3 193.2 191.0 202.8
214.8 198.9 200.1 206.8 201.0 205.2
199.0 180.5 183.8 181.7 182.9 182.5
214.9 201.6 187.1 206.0 195.8 206.6
210.5 200.7 189.4 199.7 200.0 217.2
213.6 206.2 219.8 203.6 197.7 188.2
204.3 204.0 227.3 207.1 210.7 211.5
226.4 205.7 220.2 216.5 204.3 206.7
225.3 211.1 217.0 202.5 205.2 198.5
201.9 203.2 211.0 203.2 200.1 189.0
2,546 2,404 2,462 2,453 2,397 2,392 2,441
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
96.2 136.2 W W W W 148.4
97.1 112.2 W W W 165.4 140.4
114.7 129.3 W W W 131.6 139.6
94.9 106.7 W W W 140.3
89.2 122.6 W W W W
W 118.7 W W W 147.3
W 111.9 W W 134.6 132.2
W 140.4 W W W 124.8
W W W W 152.8 149.0
W W W W W 142.9
134.2 W W W W 142.4
129.6 W W W W 132.1
1,296 1,467 W W 1,724 1,690 1,714
W = Withheld proprietary data.
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Corn Oil Price, Wet Mill in Chicago Year
496 953 1,298 950
Oct.
Consumption Corn Oil, in Refining, in the United States Year
W W 56 W W W 21
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
2
Year
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------------------------ Disappearance -----------------------------------------------------Salad Baking Total Domestic Total and and D i sa p D i sa p Edible Cooking MargFrying Exports pearance pearance Products Oil arine Fats
In Cents Per Pound
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
21.97 10.52 17.18 22.45 26.99 23.10 27.50
21.96 10.37 18.30 26.90 27.56 24.24 27.08
21.68 10.54 22.45 28.25 28.73 26.67 26.08
20.81 10.25 20.54 29.30 29.26 27.41 25.22
20.06 11.06 18.35 28.90 30.16 27.58
19.28 11.91 18.37 27.20 30.56 28.08
18.32 13.76 17.70 27.55 30.36 29.29
16.63 14.84 17.00 29.10 30.34 30.65
14.57 15.94 17.60 30.15 28.36 30.73
13.55 17.28 19.10 29.90 27.33 30.01
13.03 18.73 21.72 30.68 25.61 28.83
11.85 17.30 21.40 27.71 25.07 27.75
17.81 13.54 19.14 28.17 28.36 27.86 26.47
Source: Economic Research Service,U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
63
Cotton Cotton is a natural vegetable fiber that comes from small trees and shrubs of a genus belonging to the mallow family, one of which is the common American Upland cotton plant. Cotton has been used in India for at least the last 5,000 years and probably much longer, and was also used by the ancient Chinese, Egyptians, and North and South Americans. Cotton was one of the earliest crops grown by European settlers in the US. Cotton requires a long growing season, plenty of sunshine and water during the growing season, and then dry weather for harvesting. In the United States, the Cotton Belt stretches from northern Florida to North Carolina and westward to California. In the US, planting time varies from the beginning of February in Southern Texas to the beginning of June in the northern sections of the Cotton Belt. The flower bud of the plant blossoms and develops into an oval boll that splits open at maturity. At maturity, cotton is most vulnerable to damage from wind and rain. Approximately 95% of the cotton in the US is now harvested mechanically with spindle-type pickers or strippers and then sent off to cotton gins for processing. There it is dried, cleaned, separated, and packed into bales. Cotton is used in a wide range of products from clothing to home furnishings to medical products. The value of cotton is determined according to the staple, grade, and character of each bale. Staple refers to short, medium, long, or extra-long fiber length, with medium staple accounting for about 70% of all US cotton. Grade refers to the color, brightness, and amount of foreign matter and is established by the US Department of Agriculture. Character refers to the fiber’s diameter, strength, body, maturity (ratio of mature to immature fibers), uniformity, and smoothness. Cotton is the fifth leading cash crop in the US and is one of the nation’s principal agricultural exports. The weight of cotton is typically measured in terms of a “bale,” which is deemed to equal 480 pounds. Cotton futures and options are traded on the New York Cotton Exchange, a division of the New York Board of Trade. Cotton futures are also traded on the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F). Cotton yarn futures are traded on the Central Japan Commodity Exchange (CCOM) and the Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME). The New York Cotton Exchange’s futures contract calls for the delivery of 50,000 pounds net weight (approximately 100 bales) of No. 2 cotton with a quality rating of Strict Low Middling and a staple length of 1-and-2/32 inch. Delivery points include Texas (Galveston and Houston), New Orleans, Memphis, and Greenville/Spartanburg in South Carolina. Prices – Cotton prices on the New York Board of Trade nearest futures chart came into 2005 on a weak note but strengthened during the year to close at 54.19 cents per pound, up 21% from 2004 and near the middle of the yearly range. Cotton prices were able to rally during 2005, despite another year of a huge US cotton crop, mainly because of strong demand. Demand for cotton has been strong, mainly from increased clothing demand in China and India where wealth is growing. Strong demand has absorbed supply and prevented cotton stocks from getting out of hand. The US
64
cotton crop in 2005-06 rose slightly by +1.9% to a new record high of 23.703 million bales. That pushed the US carryover sharply higher by 25% to 6.9 million bales. However, the global carry-over in 2005-06 fell slightly by –2% yr/yr to 50.77 million bales, showing that on a global scale, supply was roughly in balance with demand in 2005-06. Going into 2006, market analysts are looking for an even larger US cotton crop due to increased acreage and a continuation of the very high yields seen in the past 2 years. This is likely to cap cotton prices in 2006, barring any weather disasters. Supply – World cotton production in 2005-06 fell –6.7% yr/yr to 112.356 million bales (480 pounds per bale) from the record high of 120.377 million bales seen in 2004-05. The world’s largest cotton producers are China with 22% of world production in 2005-06, the US with 21%, India with 17%, and Pakistan with 9%. World beginning stocks in 200506 rose +27% yr/yr to 51.616 million bales, recovering further from the 9-year low of 38.223 million bales seen in 200304. The US cotton crop in 2005-06 rose by +1.9% yr/yr to a record high of 23.703 million bales. US farmers harvested 13.673 million acres of cotton in 2005-06, up 4.7% yr/yr and well above the 10-year average of 12.8 million acres. The US cotton yield in 2005-06 was 813 pounds per acre, down from the record of 828 pounds per acre in 2004-05 but still a very strong yield. The leading US producing states of Upland cotton are Texas with 36.5% of US production in 2005, Arkansas (9.9%), Mississippi (9.7%), Georgia (9.7%), and California (5.0%). US production of cotton cloth has fallen sharply by almost half in the past decade due to the movement of the textile industry out of the US to low-wage foreign countries. Specifically, US production of cotton cloth in 2004 (the last full reporting year) fell –12.1% yr/yr to a record low of 2.547 billion square yards. That was about one-fourth of the 10.012 billion square yard production level seen in 1950. Demand – World consumption of cotton in 2005-06 rose by +6.1% yr/yr to 115.244 million bales, which was a new record high. Consumption of cotton continues to move toward countries with low wages, where the raw cotton is utilized to produce textiles and other cotton products. The largest consumers of cotton in 2005-06 were China (37%), India (15%), and Pakistan (10%). US consumption of cotton by mills in 2005-06 fell –8.0% yr/yr to 6.000 million bales, and accounted for 27% of US production. The remaining 73% of US cotton production went for exports. Trade – World exports of cotton in 2005-06 rose +19.4% yr/yr to 41.435 million bales, which was a new record high. The US is the world’s largest cotton exporter by far and accounts for 40% of world cotton exports. Key world cotton importers include Turkey with 8.2% of total world imports in 2005-06, Indonesia with 5.5%, Mexico with 3.3%, and Russia with 3.4%. US cotton exports in 2005-06 rose by +13.8% yr/yr to 16.400 million bales, which was a new record high. The main destinations for US exports in 2004-05 were China (28%), Mexico (11%), Indonesia (8%), Taiwan (6%), and Thailand (5%).
COTTON Supply and Distribution of All Cotton in the United States
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales Ending Stocks -- Cents per Lb. --
Value of Production Million $
3,971 3,887 3,939 3,915 6,000 7,448 5,385 3,506 5,538 6,500
6,408.1 5,975.6 4,119.9 3,809.6 4,260.4 3,121.8 3,777.1 5,516.8 4,853.7 5,574.1
---------------- Acre ----------------- --------------------- Supply --------------------- -------------------- Disappearance --------------------
Crop Year Yield Beginning Beginning Planted Harvested ---- 1,000 Acres ---- Lbs./acre Stocks3 Aug. 1
Production4 Imports
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
18,942 18,793 13,918 16,968 17,188 20,303 17,209 18,255 23,251 23,719
14,653 13,898 13,393 14,874 15,517 15,769 13,958 13,480 13,659 14,195
12,888 13,406 10,684 13,425 13,053 13,828 12,417 12,003 13,057 13,703
705 673 625 607 632 705 665 730 855 831
2,609 3,971 3,887 3,939 3,915 6,000 7,448 5,385 3,506 5,538
403 13 443 97 16 21 67 45 29 40
Total
Mill Use Exports
21,954 22,777 18,248 21,004 21,119 26,324 24,724 23,685 26,786 28,739
11,126 6,865 11,349 7,500 10,401 4,344 10,240 6,750 8,862 6,740 7,696 11,000 7,273 11,900 6,221 13,758 6,523 14,409 6,000 16,200
UnacTotal counted
17,991 18,849 14,699 16,944 15,602 18,696 19,173 19,979 20,932 22,200
8 -41 394 -145 483 -180 -166 -200 -316 -39
Farm "A" Index Price5 Price6
70.5 66.2 61.7 46.8 51.6 32.0 45.7 63.0 43.5 49.0
78.66 72.11 58.97 52.85 57.25 41.88 55.81 69.24 53.53
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Excludes preseason ginnings (adjusted to 480-lb. bale net weight basis). 4 I ncludes preseason ginnings. Marketing year average price. 6 Average of 5 cheapest types of SLM 1 3/32 staple length cotton offered on the European market. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
5
World Production of All Cotton
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
Argentina
Brazil
China
Egypt
India
Iran
Mexico
Pakistan
Sudan
Turkey
United States
Uzbekistan
World Total
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
1,493 1,428 918 615 758 300 290 515 675 610
1,405 1,890 2,391 3,216 4,312 3,519 3,890 6,015 5,900 4,750
19,300 21,100 20,700 17,600 20,300 24,400 22,600 22,300 29,000 24,500
1,568 1,532 1,050 1,055 920 1,441 1,310 920 1,332 970
13,918 12,337 12,883 12,180 10,931 12,300 10,600 14,000 19,000 18,600
825 600 638 650 735 575 460 520 615 580
1,078 984 1,039 669 394 432 205 357 625 700
7,323 7,175 6,300 8,600 8,200 8,300 7,800 7,750 11,300 9,750
485 400 210 240 340 330 375 310 525 370
3,600 3,651 3,860 3,634 3,600 3,975 4,179 4,100 4,150 3,550
18,942 18,793 13,918 16,968 17,188 20,303 17,209 18,255 23,251 23,719
4,813 5,228 4,600 5,180 4,400 4,900 4,600 4,100 5,200 5,600
90,028 92,234 85,501 87,719 88,850 98,751 88,251 95,262 120,377 112,356
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Stocks and Trade of Cotton Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
---------------- Beginning Stocks ---------------United UzbekWorld States istan China Total
2,609 3,971 3,887 3,939 3,915 6,000 7,448 5,385 3,506 5,538
Preliminary.
2
1,304 822 635 603 738 668 918 1,018 923 1,298
Estimate.
16,616 19,897 23,997 26,103 21,328 18,466 17,323 13,099 12,808 10,563
36,614 40,059 43,684 44,885 41,672 42,452 47,190 38,223 40,717 51,616
--------------------------------- Imports --------------------------------- ------------------------ Exports -----------------------IndoWorld United UzbekWorld nesia Mexico Russia Turkey Total States istan China Total
2,147 1,910 2,323 2,076 2,650 2,356 2,228 2,150 2,400 2,300
894 1,371 1,422 1,813 1,865 2,065 2,330 1,858 1,810 1,400
1,000 1,225 850 1,600 1,650 1,800 1,650 1,475 1,450 1,500
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
Preliminary.
Brazil
China
Egypt
France
Germany
3,727 3,626 3,774 4,236 4,200 3,800 3,600 3,950 4,200 4,000
19,950 19,150 18,700 21,300 23,500 26,250 29,900 32,000 38,500 43,000
919 1,033 950 800 750 650 900 900 950 1,000
536 505 495 500 425 390 340 235 215 180
640 650 575 565 600 525 475 325 280 260
2
Estimate.
28,763 26,488 25,248 28,276 26,479 29,408 30,460 33,922 33,133 41,996
6,865 7,500 4,298 6,750 6,740 11,000 11,900 13,758 14,409 16,400
4,550 4,570 3,812 4,200 3,450 3,500 3,400 3,100 3,950 4,450
10 25 676 1,692 442 342 751 173 30 25
26,494 26,590 23,649 27,226 26,464 29,023 30,629 33,087 34,695 41,435
Uzbekistan
World Total
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Consumption of All Cottons in Specified Countries Year
1,355 1,450 1,139 2,411 1,758 2,977 2,265 2,370 3,409 3,450
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
India
Italy
Ja p a n
Mexico
Pakistan
United States
13,120 12,675 12,620 13,547 13,544 13,275 13,300 13,500 14,800 17,000
1,562 1,612 1,310 1,400 1,330 1,250 1,175 925 925 800
1,401 1,400 1,250 1,320 1,190 1,050 1,025 825 815 750
1,600 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,100 2,200 2,100 2,000 2,100 2,000
7,000 7,187 7,000 7,650 8,100 8,500 9,400 9,600 10,750 11,750
11,126 11,349 10,401 10,194 8,862 7,696 7,273 6,221 6,693 6,000
750 87,760 850 87,267 825 84,760 850 91,058 1,025 92,164 1,150 94,319 1,100 98,307 1,100 98,080 875 108,647 900 115,244
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
65
COTTON
Cents Per Pound ----- Spot Average, New York (1791 - 1914) 7/8” Middling, Designated Markets (Aug. 1915 - July 1930) 15/16” Middling, Designated Markets (Aug. 1930 - Feb. 1967) 1 1/16” 7 Market Average (Mar. 1967 - date)
Averag e S p o t C o tto n P rices2, C .I.F. N o rth ern E u ro p e Crop Year Begi nni ng Aug. 1
Argenti na "C"3 1 1/16"
Australi a M 1 3/32"
Cotlook Index A
Cotlook Index B
1990-1 1991-2 1992-3 1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-001
77.06 55.08 64.31 80.20 101.88 82.98 79.71 69.96 57.19 ----
85.58 65.97 64.01 72.81 81.05 93.75 83.24 77.49 66.48 61.97
82.90 63.05 57.70 70.60 92.75 85.61 78.59 72.19 58.91 52.80
77.80 58.50 53.70 67.30 92.40 81.06 74.80 70.69 54.26 49.55
Egypt Gi za4 Greece 81 M 1 3/32"
177.43 128.10 99.24 88.35 93.70 ----------------
84.24 65.90 56.92 58.81 88.64 84.95 75.85 72.03 58.66 51.71
In U.S. Cents Per Pound Mexi co5 M 1 3/32"
Paki stan Si nd/ Punjab6
Tanzani a AR7 Type 3
84.46 68.19 ------82.65 94.94 79.60 81.70 65.78 56.43
77.19 58.14 52.66 54.42 73.75 81.86 73.37 72.93 -------
89.62 68.90 62.24 69.83 ---96.20 79.22 84.04 72.70 55.67
Turkey U.S. Cali f. Izmi r8 ACALA SJV9 1 3/32"
81.32 74.66 ---59.80 ---90.38 -------------
92.84 74.47 68.37 77.55 106.40 103.49 89.55 85.11 78.57 68.76
U.S. U.S. Memphi s Orleans/ Terr.10 Texas 11 M 1 3/32" M 1 1/32"
88.13 66.35 63.08 72.80 98.67 94.71 82.81 78.12 73.65 60.22
80.35 63.41 58.89 69.78 95.70 90.37 79.77 74.74 70.95 55.67
P reliminary. 2 Generally for prompt shipment. 3 1 1/32 prior to January 20, 1984; 1 1/16 since. 4 Dendera until 1969/70; Giz a 67 1969/70 until December 1983; Giz a 69/75/81 until Nov ember 1990; Giz a 81 since. 5 S. B raz il Ty pe 5, 1 1/32 prior to 1968-69; 1 1/16 until 1987/88; B raz ilian Ty pe 5/6, 1 1/16 since. 6 P unj ab until 1979/80; Sind SG until June 1984; Sind/P unj ab SG until January 1985; A fz al 1 until January 1986; A fz al 1 1/32 since. 7 8 No. 1 until 1978/79; No. 1/2 until F ebruary 1986; A R ' Mwanz a No. 3 until January 1992; A R ' Ty pe 3 since. I z mir ST 1 W hite 1 1/16 R G prior to 1981/82; 1 3/32 from 1981/82 until January 1987; I z mir/A ntaly a ST 1 W hite -3/32 R G since. 9 SM 1 3/32 prior to 1975/76; SM 1 1/8 since. 10 SM 1 1/16 prior to 1981/82; Middling 1 3/32 since. 11 Middling 1 prior to 1988/89; Middling 1 1/32 since. S ource: I nt ernat ional C ot t on Advisory C ommit t ee 1
Average Producer Price Index of Gray Cotton Broadw ovens Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
123.6 120.3 122.8 117.1 112.1 112.8 110.7 105.7 109.9 112.6
123.7 120.8 122.0 117.3 111.1 113.1 109.9 105.2 111.2 112.0
122.0 120.7 122.1 118.8 106.9 113.1 110.1 105.0 110.6 111.9
122.0 120.8 121.5 116.5 108.2 112.7 108.1 105.9 111.5 111.8
121.1 121.2 121.8 116.4 108.6 112.8 107.3 106.0 112.3 111.2
120.7 120.6 120.8 116.1 107.7 112.9 108.0 106.7 112.6 111.2
120.7 121.4 120.0 116.5 108.3 113.2 106.9 107.2 113.7 111.1
119.9 121.6 119.1 112.9 108.8 112.9 107.0 109.1 113.2 111.2
119.7 121.4 118.8 112.9 110.1 112.9 106.9 110.1 113.5 111.3
120.4 120.8 118.1 113.1 110.2 112.0 105.9 111.0 113.6 111.0
120.0 121.6 117.3 112.6 112.3 111.2 105.7 110.6 113.3 111.1
120.4 121.2 117.8 108.6 112.3 111.1 106.2 108.9 112.5 110.7
121.2 121.0 120.2 114.9 109.7 112.6 107.7 107.6 112.3 111.4
Preliminary.
66
Index 1982 = 100
Jan.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (0337-01), U.S. Department of Commerce
COTTON Average Price of SLM 1 1/16",Cotton2 at Designated US Mkts Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
In Cents Per Pound (Net Weight)
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
76.15 71.61 71.87 49.72 59.33 36.05 39.20 51.94 44.92 45.38
75.24 70.75 71.75 48.39 60.62 33.22 37.91 58.02 47.48 47.43
72.21 69.46 67.61 49.46 60.54 28.42 39.62 69.38 44.55 51.02
70.12 68.90 64.95 48.12 62.16 31.23 44.98 68.88 42.62 48.80
71.98 64.57 59.88 46.65 61.04 32.21 46.38 65.09 41.68 49.53
70.53 62.75 56.20 51.92 56.66 32.13 48.60 68.21 43.21 51.91
70.53 63.66 55.46 54.29 54.10 31.60 51.35 63.35 42.90
71.12 67.04 58.17 57.67 47.22 33.23 53.82 61.78 48.19
69.09 61.88 57.01 53.76 42.19 31.86 53.38 57.50 49.58
69.30 65.21 55.54 58.31 40.02 31.14 48.94 60.22 48.57
71.03 73.50 53.74 54.97 37.38 36.36 50.92 52.35 45.92
71.83 74.18 49.23 55.13 37.48 39.78 54.45 45.05 47.78
71.59 67.79 60.12 52.36 51.56 33.10 47.46 60.15 45.62 49.01
1 2 Preliminary. Grade 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49 , strength 23.5-26.4. U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service,
Average Spot Cotton, 1 3/32", Price (SLM) at Designated U.S. Markets
In Cents Per Pound (Net Weight)
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
77.97 73.69 73.93 52.90 62.60 38.88 42.31 55.87 50.45 50.59
76.92 72.64 73.75 51.27 63.62 36.11 41.07 61.76 52.55 52.81
73.90 71.13 69.90 52.43 63.13 31.55 43.08 73.27 49.45 56.01
71.74 70.35 67.18 51.51 65.08 34.03 48.78 72.63 47.23 53.78
75.75 66.30 62.18 49.73 64.73 34.82 50.70 68.90 46.41 54.47
72.53 64.55 58.56 55.02 60.18 34.55 52.87 71.96 48.16
72.86 65.78 58.27 57.38 57.18 34.08 55.34 67.34 48.17
73.60 69.25 61.34 61.02 50.08 36.04 57.88 66.42 53.37
71.23 64.31 60.33 57.52 44.94 34.84 57.54 63.11 54.67
71.38 67.66 58.89 63.09 42.54 34.03 52.96 65.97 53.76
73.25 76.02 56.85 59.28 39.88 39.31 55.09 57.99 51.26
74.04 76.63 52.61 58.80 39.96 42.86 58.46 51.11 52.97
73.76 69.86 62.82 55.83 54.49 35.93 51.34 64.69 50.70 53.53
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
Average Spot Prices of U.S. Cotton2, Base Quality (SLM) at Designated Markets Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051
In Cents Per Pound
Dallas (East Tex.-Okl.)
Fresno (San Joaquin Valley)
Greenville (Southeast)
Greenwood (South Delta)
Lubbock (West Texas)
Memphis (North Delta)
Phoenix Desert (Southwest)
Average
80.89 70.29 65.93 57.66 50.49 51.03 32.59 46.76 59.95 44.22
87.40 74.47 71.79 63.78 56.67 52.45 34.64 47.52 59.71 47.38
83.86 72.33 68.60 62.06 53.81 52.63 33.02 48.28 60.80 45.91
83.76 72.11 68.36 61.82 53.34 52.32 33.24 48.46 60.85 46.02
80.64 69.89 65.88 57.76 50.12 50.71 32.39 46.51 59.71 44.08
83.76 72.11 68.36 61.82 53.34 52.32 33.24 48.47 60.78 46.02
80.90 69.88 65.63 55.92 48.79 49.47 32.60 46.27 59.23 45.66
83.03 71.58 67.79 60.12 52.36 51.56 33.10 47.46 60.15 45.61
Preliminary. 2 Prices are for mixed lots, net weight, uncompressed in warehouse. Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
1
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of
Average Price1 Received by Farmers for Upland Cotton in the United States
In Cents Per Pound
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062
71.9 67.0 66.0 52.7 51.4 37.3 33.0 46.3 53.7 42.1
71.6 69.6 66.2 45.3 50.6 36.5 35.2 55.7 49.3 44.3
71.5 69.4 65.9 46.3 55.5 30.7 39.4 67.8 50.6 48.5
69.7 67.9 64.6 44.3 58.0 27.8 43.0 63.0 43.2 48.5
69.3 63.8 60.6 42.8 57.8 30.8 44.3 63.3 39.3 47.9
67.9 61.1 58.1 43.1 52.1 27.3 45.5 62.2 38.5 48.6
68.1 62.5 55.6 46.8 48.5 28.0 46.5 61.9 38.3 48.3
69.3 63.9 55.1 47.7 41.1 28.4 48.6 61.6 41.5
67.6 63.6 55.6 45.4 42.6 27.2 45.4 60.3 43.1
68.3 63.5 55.0 47.6 40.9 26.7 45.9 59.7 42.0
67.1 69.7 54.6 45.1 39.2 33.7 45.5 59.9 44.0
67.5 68.0 53.8 48.8 38.9 35.3 46.3 53.8 43.2
69.3 65.2 60.2 45.0 49.8 29.8 43.2 59.6 43.9 46.9
1
Weighted average by sales.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
67
COTTON Purchases Reported by Exchanges in Designated U.S. Spot Markets1 Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
Oct.
Nov.
1996-97 62,884 73,925 148,337 1997-98 48,504 106,503 323,400 1998-99 27,193 52,066 114,998 1999-00 83,564 95,241 195,370 2000-01 63,607 69,083 143,938 2001-02 118,000 94,697 214,785 2002-03 43,047 49,671 194,020 2003-04 125,240 245,295 273,028 2004-05 135,568 46,749 91,390 2005-06 67,318 63,884 138,910
477,331 367,010 229,743 320,434 323,891 644,860 204,564 167,285 263,999 220,961
1
Aug.
Seven markets.
Sept.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
613,430 696,494 617,470 655,432 498,082 414,832 517,579 744,400 288,242 217,755 225,869 289,778 369,838 481,730 321,083 417,090 369,597 402,504 363,287 434,818
412,095 482,625 191,872 294,843 215,318 180,362 432,055 267,237 445,448
Mar.
Apr.
May
242,606 72,234 396,946 92,072 236,762 71,993 189,460 89,473 191,667 274,185 278,853 84,259 169,064 170,951 167,357 62,031 424,472 210,285
130,163 210,906 63,335 129,879 193,774 155,391 213,679 70,979 93,471
Market Total
July
201,557 93,205 105,139 39,647 62,192 64,092 49,012 33,942 152,905 167,647 143,422 93,489 149,780 86,830 79,061 58,400 95,154 20,398
3,224,261 3,445,654 2,027,160 2,743,197 2,302,012 2,523,765 2,565,229 2,254,086 2,599,035 2,578,356
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales Total AmericanPima
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Upland ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------AlaArkanLouisMissisNorth South Tenbama Arizona sas California Georgia iana sippi Missouri Carolina Carolina nessee Texas
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
June
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
Production of Cotton (Upland and American-Pima) in the U.S. Year
In Running Bales
789 550 553 625 543 920 570 820 814 870
Preliminary.
2
778 847 608 716 791 690 613 550 723 650
Forecasted.
1,636 1,683 1,209 1,428 1,425 1,833 1,669 1,804 2,089 2,190
2,390 2,191 1,146 1,580 2,210 1,770 1,460 1,495 1,790 1,100
2,079 1,919 1,542 1,567 1,663 2,220 1,578 2,110 1,797 2,150
1,286 986 641 901 911 1,034 739 1,027 885 1,120
1,876 1,821 1,444 1,731 1,711 2,396 1,935 2,120 2,346 2,160
591 565 350 472 540 695 610 700 830 895
1,002 930 1,026 816 1,429 1,673 806 1,037 1,360 1,400
455 410 350 281 379 423 131 326 390 430
675 662 546 595 710 978 818 890 984 1,140
4,345 5,140 3,600 5,050 3,940 4,260 5,040 4,330 7,740 8,100
528.5 548.0 442.3 674.3 389.1 700.4 678.3 432.3 745.6 674.0
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Cotton Production and Yield Estimates ---------- Forecast of Production (1,000 Bales of 480 Lbs.1) ---------Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Jan. 1
Actual Crop
18,577 17,783 14,263 18,304 19,159 20,003 18,439 17,104 20,183 21,291
17,900 18,418 13,563 17,535 18,315 19,992 18,134 16,939 20,895 22,282
18,189 18,410 13,288 16,430 17,485 20,072 18,070 17,559 21,545 22,717
18,594 18,848 13,231 16,531 17,510 20,175 17,815 18,215 22,545 23,161
18,738 18,819 13,452 16,875 17,399 20,064 17,375 18,215 22,815 23,703
18,951 18,977 -------------------------
18,942 18,793 13,918 16,968 17,188 20,303 17,209 18,255 23,251 23,719
Net weight bales.
------ Forecasts of Yield (Lbs. Per Harvested Acre) -----Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Jan. 1
Actual Crop
686 637 640 649 648 670 675 667 727 748
661 658 614 621 622 679 675 667 758 782
673 665 616 588 620 681 674 696 782 797
698 673 612 592 622 685 665 722 818 813
704 672 621 604 619 691 648 722 828 832
709 686 -------------------------
705 673 625 607 632 705 665 730 855 831
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Supply and Distribution of Upland Cotton in the United States
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
-------------------- Area -------------------- --------------------------- Supply --------------------------- ---------------------- Disappearance ----------------------
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
14,395 13,648 13,064 14,584 15,347 15,499 13,714 13,301 13,409 13,925
Planted
Harvested
----- 1,000 Acres -----
12,632 13,157 10,449 13,138 12,884 13,560 12,174 11,826 12,809 13,434
Yield Lbs./Acre
Beginning Stocks3
Production4
Imports
700 666 619 595 626 694 652 723 843 824
2,543 3,920 3,822 3,836 3,665 5,879 7,120 5,140 3,428 5,525
18,414 18,245 13,476 16,294 16,799 19,603 16,530 17,823 22,505 23,064
403 13 431 53 8 6 10 3 8 15
Total
Mill Use
Exports
21,359 22,178 17,729 20,183 20,472 25,488 23,661 22,966 25,941 28,057
11,020 11,234 10,254 10,055 8,738 7,592 7,170 6,159 6,461 5,940
6,399 7,060 4,056 6,303 6,303 10,603 11,266 13,220 13,618 15,630
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Excludes preseason ginnings (adjusted to 480-lb. bale net weight basis). year average price. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
68
4
Total
Ending Stocks
Farm Price5 Cents/Lb.
17,419 18,294 14,264 16,358 15,041 18,195 18,436 19,379 20,079 21,570
3,920 3,822 3,836 3,665 5,879 7,120 5,140 3,428 5,525 6,438
69.3 65.2 60.2 45.0 49.8 29.8 43.2 59.6 43.9 46.9
I ncludes preseason ginnings.
5
Marketing
COTTON
Average Open Interest of #2 Cotton Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
58,001 59,909 89,358 79,598 63,987 71,849 64,096 83,775 93,191 92,651
60,231 65,392 86,739 75,794 67,720 73,383 64,572 89,852 81,871 94,047
57,542 72,130 81,236 62,857 69,788 71,389 63,451 91,336 84,600 118,183
61,795 76,779 85,505 60,384 56,038 70,407 63,827 78,658 89,082 120,416
64,555 73,464 84,562 61,470 54,058 66,680 67,601 73,146 81,988 103,446
62,342 70,296 90,178 66,789 48,024 64,032 65,848 69,137 79,310 93,818
61,921 73,893 81,652 68,975 53,621 61,183 74,892 62,565 77,029 92,284
60,182 79,309 78,571 65,690 63,069 65,257 72,612 62,781 75,449 99,959
58,168 87,134 85,378 63,976 73,735 65,496 69,554 80,348 69,514 105,874
Nov.
D e c.
58,415 57,397 92,430 89,150 88,970 88,917 60,369 63,746 67,767 65,017 59,777 56,896 71,526 82,802 108,981 97,809 76,556 86,280 117,889 103,466
Oct.
47,652 87,120 77,873 61,474 62,931 58,156 74,685 79,627 84,409 100,660
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of #2 Cotton Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
215,882 201,610 221,308 179,049 270,792 267,930 156,834 202,615 272,948 356,817
196,225 253,475 289,222 244,300 279,566 270,876 248,299 267,234 359,105 407,277
147,393 302,609 310,075 209,127 248,017 237,356 162,781 217,791 300,820 317,486
251,786 258,851 362,688 250,622 220,222 215,903 237,861 325,627 376,669 465,210
236,684 175,227 218,595 157,552 232,947 175,808 188,340 249,314 184,869 306,971
264,047 314,406 407,922 260,649 272,023 214,513 234,442 271,822 357,548 456,584
131,183 234,718 226,138 187,631 147,878 132,065 170,893 164,027 159,924 171,139
177,430 202,008 230,752 178,236 175,707 118,685 128,185 127,080 195,886 189,584
166,629 212,966 195,690 175,282 154,735 98,947 145,946 283,988 196,739 271,268
229,305 216,771 303,849 193,552 172,875 152,702 199,779 422,132 224,431 290,650
229,281 266,800 272,775 298,531 242,013 258,847 296,859 356,052 341,709 408,580
128,010 197,839 161,816 120,120 180,982 116,033 157,741 148,310 185,370 207,424
2,373,855 2,837,280 3,200,830 2,454,651 2,597,757 2,259,665 2,327,960 3,035,992 3,156,018 3,848,990
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
69
COTTON Daily Rate of Upland Cotton Mill Consumption2 on Cotton-System Spinning Spindles in the U.S. In Thousands of Running Bales Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
40.5 40.7 39.3 36.1 36.4 28.8 28.0 23.0 25.2 22.4
40.7 42.4 38.7 36.4 35.6 28.1 28.3 22.7 24.9 22.2
40.5 42.0 39.9 37.3 34.5 27.5 27.9 22.6 24.9 22.1
41.5 42.4 37.4 37.2 33.0 26.3 27.4 23.0 24.3 20.9
41.1 43.9 37.5 37.6 34.4 27.1 27.2 22.7 25.1 19.8
41.3 41.8 38.6 36.8 33.5 27.1 26.5 21.8 24.8
40.4 41.7 38.2 37.5 31.9 27.5 26.8 22.7 24.0
39.4 41.1 37.9 37.6 31.8 27.9 26.4 22.7 24.0
41.0 40.5 37.8 37.5 30.6 27.4 26.0 22.2 24.2
41.0 40.8 37.5 37.0 29.7 28.4 25.0 22.7 23.9
40.9 40.0 37.7 38.1 27.6 29.3 24.3 23.0 25.7
42.5 41.5 36.8 36.5 28.6 30.6 24.7 24.2 25.0
40.9 41.6 38.1 37.1 32.3 28.0 26.5 22.8 24.7 21.5
1
Preliminary.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of the Census: U.S. Department of Commerce
Consumption of American and Foreign Cotton in the United States
In Thousands of Running Bales
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
847 868 835 762 766 616 574 476 484 454
1,028 1,100 1,013 949 929 751 733 599 604 574
829 872 834 793 741 600 585 482 483 472
816 855 758 757 663 521 545 468 460 415
858 951 796 801 749 563 598 504 500 432
810 848 979 736 661 541 671 478 470
819 861 795 769 657 580 556 475 472
1,014 1,068 983 966 837 759 708 609 601
834 839 777 772 641 575 541 461 469
840 854 793 771 628 594 523 473 463
1,044 1,017 970 990 727 754 616 582 581
781 770 678 670 510 571 456 446 449
10,519 10,902 10,210 9,735 8,510 7,425 7,106 6,053 6,035 5,633
1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Exports of All Cotton2 from the United States Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Running Bales
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
257 458 402 254 430 612 472 810 760 1,407
171 299 280 146 336 824 653 555 374 742
277 400 265 167 382 678 373 446 422 533
573 581 795 455 435 649 626 758 632 763
899 774 1,027 654 541 927 935 1,116 1,087 1,236
666 734 156 658 564 964 1,206 1,194 1,179
728 777 182 736 614 1,042 873 1,238 1,214
848 888 221 978 720 1,225 1,597 1,869 1,839
711 669 169 708 568 999 1,174 1,453 1,461
631 477 256 659 692 842 1,150 1,117 1,094
604 574 260 508 784 1,067 1,273 1,576 1,411
501 571 330 479 648 679 1,231 1,021 1,828
6,866 7,202 4,344 6,402 6,715 10,505 11,561 13,154 13,301 11,233
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
U.S. Exports of American Cotton to Countries of Destination
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
Canada
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Mexico
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
United Kingdom
Total
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052
294 253 288 281 245 322 235 303 303 311
1,845 1,756 737 71 147 124 306 1,840 4,919 4,076
223 129 151 245 316 287 407 364 169 272
794 594 464 229 573 558 947 869 889 1,134
115 46 85 29 61 52 58 81 63 75
940 630 637 406 424 355 385 380 284 301
769 568 712 381 307 489 577 480 469 642
618 733 1,447 1,359 1,500 1,760 1,516 1,777 1,620 1,586
144 84 53 59 71 42 126 104 100 110
331 197 220 82 257 237 693 592 527 846
255 255 376 249 476 367 693 556 396 712
85 66 13 6 4 1 0 4 20 60
7,674 6,862 7,202 4,298 6,401 6,740 10,397 11,607 13,758 14,409
1
Preliminary.
70
2
Estimate.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
COTTON Cotton1 Government Loan Program in the United States Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00
Support Target Put Under Price Price Support -- Cents Per Lb. -- Ths Bales
51.92 51.92 51.92 51.92 51.92
72.9 NA NA NA NA
% of Production
3,478 3,340 4,281 4,724 8,721
Owned Crop Year Acquired July 31 Beginning ----- Ths. Bales ----Aug. 1
19.8 18.1 23.5 36.8 54.9
1 Upland. 2 Preliminary. 3 Less than 500 bales. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
0 0 1 31 0
0 0 0 3 1
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-052
NA = Not applicable.
Production of Cotton Cloth1 in the United States
Support Target Put Under Price Price Support -- Cents Per Lb. -- Ths Bales
51.92 51.92 52.00 52.00 52.00
NA NA 74.2 74.2 72.4
% of Production
8,837 13,655 12,740 10,345
Owned Acquired July 31 ----- Ths. Bales -----
52.6 69.7 77.1 58.0
89 257 44 4
5 2 106 0
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Millions of Square Yards
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total Year
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1,182 1,211 1,226 1,170 1,075
1,230 1,276 1,167 1,164 1,129
1,198 1,283 1,218 1,078 1,111
1,187 1,309 1,142 1,039 1,079
4,796 5,078 4,753 4,451 4,395
2001 2002 2003 2004 20052
1,047 893 836 648 672
976 912 780 644 640
873 894 662 640 649
811 825 620 614
3,706 3,524 2,898 2,547 2,614
1
Cotton broadwoven goods over 12 inches in width.
2
Preliminary.
Cotton Ginnings in the United States To: 1
Crop Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1 Sept. 15
48 2 146 81 245 99 56 29 48 69
Excluding linters.
342 359 523 561 842 609 538 567 563 592 2
637 683 739 1,018 1,454 802 898 958 1,157 976
Preliminary.
Oct. 15
Nov. 1
Nov. 15
D e c. 1
D e c. 1 5
Jan. 1
Jan. 15
F eb. 1
Total Crop
2,146 1,210 2,056 2,690 3,264 2,072 1,656 2,001 2,227 2,286
4,780 3,752 4,265 4,885 5,930 4,616 3,520 3,819 4,788 4,573
8,876 7,930 7,359 8,263 9,221 8,806 6,697 7,393 8,758 8,697
11,906 11,601 9,366 11,006 11,546 12,558 9,265 10,507 12,019 12,583
14,623 14,735 11,310 13,379 13,657 15,564 12,368 13,466 14,754 16,057
16,528 16,662 12,558 14,992 15,364 17,606 14,392 15,678 17,072 18,412
17,681 17,613 13,160 15,965 16,097 18,759 15,654 16,883 18,925 20,114
18,101 18,013 13,376 16,322 16,518 19,268 16,285 17,409 20,155 21,400
18,308 18,170 13,458 16,468 16,648 19,532 16,576 17,601 21,249 22,321
18,439 18,301 13,534 16,528 16,742 19,771 16,710 17,709 22,556 23,259
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
------------ Cotton1 -----------Raw5 Equivalent Actual
Year
Jan . F eb . Mar. Apr. May Ju n e July A ug . Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
76.29 74.21 61.45 64.06 47.08 45.56 62.54 60.42 54.75 50.30 49.79 55.35 57.06 56.81 52.85 55.88 52.38 54.91 58.49 56.46 56.69
In Thousands of Running Bales
Oct. 1
Fiber Prices in the United States
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20056
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
84.77 82.45 68.28 71.17 52.32 50.63 69.49 67.13 60.00 55.89 55.32 61.50 63.40 53.12 58.72 62.09 58.20 61.01 64.99 62.73 62.99
In Cents Per Pound --------------- Rayon2 --------------Raw5 Actual Equivalent
115.00 110.25 98.92 97.58 98.50 97.83 90.25 99.08 114.58 111.00 113.00 118.00 118.00 118.00 118.00 113.00 113.00 110.00 115.00 115.00 113.00
119.79 114.84 103.04 101.65 102.61 101.91 94.01 103.21 119.36 115.63 117.71 122.92 122.92 122.92 122.92 117.71 117.71 114.58 119.79 119.79 117.71
------------ Polyester3 -----------Raw5 Actual Equivalent
69.50 62.50 51.67 57.08 60.42 61.17 60.67 62.67 67.75 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 68.00 65.00
72.40 65.11 53.82 59.46 62.93 63.72 63.20 65.28 70.57 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 70.83 67.71
Price Ratios4 ---------- in Percent ---------Cotton/ Cotton/ Rayon Polyester
.71 .72 .66 70.00 52.0 50.0 74.1 66.5 51.0 48.3 47.0 50.0 51.6 51.4 47.8 52.7 49.4 53.2 54.3 52.4 53.5
1.17 1.29 1.27 119.10 83.0 79.0 111.0 103.5 86.2 78.9 78.1 86.8 89.5 89.1 82.9 87.7 82.2 86.1 91.7 88.6 93.0
SLM-1 1/16 at group B Mill points, net weight. 2 1.5 and 3.0 denier, regular rayon staples. 3 Reported average market price for 1.5 denier polyester staple for cotton blending. 4 Raw fiber equivalent. 5 Actual prices converted to estimated raw fiber equivalent as follows: cotton, divided by 0.90, rayon and polyester, divided by 0.96. 6 Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
71
Cottonseed and Products Cottonseed is crushed to produce both oil and meal. Cottonseed oil is typically used for cooking oil and cottonseed meal is fed to livestock. Before the cottonseed is crushed for oil and meal, it is de-linted of its linters. Linters are used for padding in furniture, absorbent cotton swabs, and for the manufacture of many cellulose products. The sediment left by cottonseed oil refining, called foots, provides fatty acids for industrial products. The value of cottonseeds represents a substantial 18% of a cotton producer’s income. Prices – The monthly average price of cottonseed oil in 2005 (through November) rose by +5.2% yr/yr to 30.38 cents per pound, still below the 31-year high of 36.73 cents posted in 2003. The average monthly price of cottonseed meal in 2005 (through November) fell by –25.4% yr/yr to $126.48 per ton, down sharply from 2004’s 8-year high of $169.45 per ton. Supply – World production of cottonseed in the 200304 marketing year (latest data available) rose +6.1% yr/yr
World Production of Cottonseed Crop Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 1
Preliminary.
to 35.512 million metric tons, which was well below the record high of 37.691 million metric tons posted in 1991-92. The world’s largest cottonseed producers are China with 24% of world production, the US with 17%, India with 16%, and Pakistan with 10%. US production of cottonseed in the 200506 marketing year rose by +3.1% yr/yr to 8.496 million tons, which was a new record high. US production of cottonseed oil in 2005-06 rose by +1.5% yr/yr to an 8-year high of 970 million pounds. US production of cottonseed cake and meal in the 2004-05 marketing year (Aug-July) rose by +11.0% yr/yr to 1.333 million tons. Demand – US cottonseed crushed (consumed) in the US in the 2004-05 marketing year rose by +10.7% to 2.923 million tons, far below the levels of over 4 million tons seen in the 1970s. Trade – US exports of cottonseed in 2005-06 rose +12.1% to 425,000 metric tons, while imports were negligible at 25 metric tons.
In Thousands of Metric Ton
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
Egypt
Greece
India
Mexico
Pakistan
Turkey
United States
Former USSR
World Total
564 542 337 223 257 102 90 159 240
859 941 1,012 1,047 1,062 1,054 470 482 800
568 763 961 1,310 1,720 1,407 1,451 2,466 2,632
7,481 8,193 8,012 6,817 7,868 9,476 8,750 8,669 11,250
560 564 379 385 371 527 480 330 470
540 590 665 740 732 710 640 550 670
5,890 5,150 5,420 5,300 4,760 5,372 4,624 6,018 7,600
421 348 369 237 128 152 68 119 210
3,189 3,124 2,990 3,824 3,651 3,610 3,472 3,416 4,976
1,220 1,193 1,282 1,159 1,289 1,320 1,457 1,419 1,400
6,480 6,291 4,867 5,764 5,838 6,761 5,610 6,046 7,630
2,707 2,692 2,580 2,832 2,531 2,753 2,575 2,439 2,890
34,557 34,522 32,868 33,398 33,898 37,322 33,485 36,176 45,280
2
Estimate.
Source: The Oil World
Salient Statistics of Cottonseed in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons -- Products Produced --
-------------------- Supply --------------------
Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
------------------------ Disappearance -----------------------Total D i sa p ProTotal pearance Stocks duction Supply Crush Exports Other --------------------------------------------- In Thousands of Short Tons ------------------------------------------
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
523 563 393 274 427 400 347 421 592
Preliminary.
2
6,935 5,365 6,354 6,436 7,452 6,184 6,665 8,242 8,501
Estimate.
7,553 6,135 7,055 7,084 8,206 6,687 7,013 8,664 9,118
3,885 2,719 3,079 2,753 2,791 2,495 2,643 2,923 3,075
149 68 198 235 274 370 354 379 425
2,957 2,955 3,505 3,669 4,742 3,477 3,595 4,770 4,963
6,990 5,742 6,781 6,657 7,807 6,341 6,592 8,072 8,488
Year
1
Meal Thousand Sh. Tons
121 129 89 105 91 101 117 107 96
835.4 687.2 565.5 675.7 667.3 616.4 779.0 877.4 808.6
1,224 832 939 847 876 725 874 956 975
1,769 1,232 1,390 1,338 1,294 1,115 1,244 1,362 1,395
In Dollars Per Short Ton
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
207.20 153.10 110.60 126.88 184.00 133.13 157.38 188.00 112.50
183.75 139.10 101.25 130.50 148.75 125.00 143.60 193.00 111.25
189.10 128.70 106.90 129.38 138.13 131.88 142.40 205.10 110.80
189.10 116.25 110.90 125.00 140.00 124.30 142.40 219.67 108.00
193.75 105.00 108.75 123.25 137.50 120.88 131.75 203.00 110.40
190.30 129.40 114.50 130.63 126.88 137.50 131.50 185.40 138.75
170.75 146.65 115.00 131.88 129.69 151.50 143.00 177.50 151.00
176.25 130.30 100.65 130.50 130.63 159.75 151.70 156.20 143.00
192.00 115.60 111.92 153.12 131.25 156.38 153.20 142.75 140.00
189.10 106.50 111.83 150.00 131.25 150.10 163.50 126.75 133.13
189.10 107.90 112.00 141.88 128.13 150.00 182.50 119.00 132.50
190.50 119.75 124.20 160.83 134.17 156.00 185.00 117.00 175.00
188.41 124.85 110.71 136.15 138.37 141.37 152.33 169.45 130.53
Preliminary.
72
Oil MIllion L b s.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Wholesale Price of Cottonseed Meal (41% Solvent)2 in Memphis 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Farm Price $/Ton
Value of Production Mil. $
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
COTTONSEED AND PRODUCTS
USD Per Ton ----- 36% Protein, Memphis, TN (Aug. 1910 - Sept. 1920) 41% Protein, Memphis, TN (Oct. 1920 - Sept. 1946) 41% Protein (Expeller), Memphis, TN (Oct. 1946 - Dec. 1981) 41% Protein (Solvent), Clarksdale, MS (Jan. 1982 - date)
Supply and Distribution of Cottonseed Oil in the United States Crop Year Beginning Oct. 1
In Millions of Pounds
Per Capita Cunsump. ------------------------- Supply ------------------------- ----------- Disappearance ----------- of Salad & Cook Oils ProTotal Stocks duction Imports Supply Domestic Exports Total - In Lbs. -
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
76 49 93 39 36 109 77
939 847 876 725 874 956 975
8.1 0 0 21.0 0 2.0 0
1,023 896 969 786 910 1,067 1,052
833 673 779 640 690 934 892
141 131 150 110 111 57 85
974 804 930 750 801 990 977
Utiliz ation ------------ Food Uses ------------ --------- Prices ---------
29 34 36 38 37
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Valley Points FOB; Tank Cars. 4 Rotterdam; US, PBSY, fob gulf. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Shortening
Salad & Cooking Oils
183 188 185 195 165 170
320 304 203 299 251 247
Consumption of Crude Cottonseed Oil in Refining in the United States 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
474 352 396 832 688 617 709
496 428 441 920 814
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
51.9 56.9 48.5 48.5 60.1 60.0 72.7
57.3 53.7 63.9 59.5 63.5 66.4 79.0
61.5 56.7 61.6 56.0 61.6 67.0 75.6
60.0 67.4 65.2 66.8 64.5 73.7
58.1 61.6 58.3 55.8 58.6 69.2
67.8 59.5 58.9 57.1 68.5 66.8
62.0 38.1 56.6 59.2 55.1 72.6
52.7 46.0 56.9 49.7 55.2 52.9
43.2 51.4 45.2 42.4 52.5 64.7
22.7 42.8 37.1 31.9 43.8 57.0
45.8 49.6 53.0 38.7 53.6 71.8
37.2 29.8 47.5 34.9 52.2 55.2
620.1 613.6 652.7 600.5 689.1 777.1 909.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Exports of Cottonseed Oil (Crude and Refined) from the United States Year
554 426 539 427
W = Withheld proprietary data.
1
Year
U.S.3 Rott4 (Crude) (Cif) Total ------ $/Met. Ton ------
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
11,541 10,627 14,684 12,905 7,017 14,203 3,490
10,235 9,447 6,638 17,550 8,483 8,982 3,201
7,780 13,181 7,237 12,137 10,054 8,321 5,191
11,387 8,258 10,595 8,319 8,234 10,399 3,461
6,328 7,402 12,722 21,013 9,706 9,632 5,873
7,161 7,550 7,525 9,444 8,161 10,720 3,029
8,725 11,546 10,325 7,863 6,593 7,931 3,198
8,111 10,642 20,809 8,727 8,663 9,891 3,763
9,275 16,467 6,439 6,831 8,764 4,617 4,823
11,060 13,263 19,891 12,698 8,640 5,669
12,313 11,652 5,662 11,105 9,349 7,619
23,025 8,898 19,831 10,761 8,176 7,507
126,941 128,934 142,359 139,352 101,839 105,492 48,039
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
73
COTTONSEED AND PRODUCTS Cottonseed Crushed (Consumption) in the United States Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
244.4 246.0 166.8 170.8 186.8 195.1 138.7 193.8 240.7
178.6 174.9 230.7 141.1 147.6 131.4 98.9 141.0 170.3
329.7 272.7 281.6 265.9 267.5 207.8 251.6 247.9 272.2
374.5 254.3 302.5 252.3 287.0 242.5 254.8 260.3 289.4
371.3 262.7 296.4 241.5 273.1 236.6 252.0 263.5 296.9
428.4 282.2 300.2 295.2 281.3 274.5 265.2 283.1
352.3 259.5 299.4 268.7 253.2 224.5 242.3 266.3
370.8 280.2 297.7 261.9 251.8 230.4 278.0 270.2
359.1 205.5 263.5 186.0 243.0 241.5 217.1 287.7
309.1 172.0 250.3 228.3 233.3 203.6 240.2 221.0
278.8 159.9 221.3 241.9 200.3 179.4 217.7 266.6
277.6 149.2 153.5 199.2 166.3 127.4 182.4 221.6
3,875 2,719 3,064 2,753 2,791 2,495 2,639 2,923 3,047
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of Cottonseed Cake and Meal in the United States Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
128.2 114.7 82.1 74.1 83.9 92.4 74.9 95.3 116.4
92.1 77.1 107.5 79.3 70.8 79.3 59.5 82.5 91.1
147.8 118.7 132.1 134.1 118.5 95.5 112.3 105.4 109.6
168.7 115.9 140.8 121.4 126.5 112.6 111.0 110.4 134.6
178.2 122.5 138.3 117.1 118.2 108.0 112.5 118.7 129.3
194.4 130.2 135.3 136.0 129.0 123.0 113.9 125.7
158.5 114.8 137.7 118.9 112.5 100.3 105.1 119.3
170.4 127.2 140.2 120.3 115.0 96.7 123.4 120.4
162.3 90.6 120.0 83.4 109.2 108.9 94.2 124.4
141.8 75.6 109.4 101.0 107.9 89.8 104.7 103.6
128.8 75.6 109.3 114.3 96.3 81.4 97.7 121.0
124.0 71.0 79.5 89.7 73.7 63.0 91.0 106.2
1,795 1,234 1,432 1,290 1,261 1,151 1,200 1,333 1,394
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Production of Crude Cottonseed Oil2 in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
80.6 77.8 56.1 55.1 57.5 60.2 45.0 68.6 84.3
66.0 59.6 69.6 52.1 42.2 53.7 40.7 58.1 62.0
97.8 78.3 88.3 84.3 79.4 62.8 77.5 77.1 86.9
120.3 80.0 95.4 76.8 86.2 72.1 78.2 82.2 95.7
119.6 80.6 94.2 73.5 81.7 67.9 79.0 81.4 90.9
136.4 84.0 93.4 85.9 87.5 80.8 82.4 88.7
111.1 80.2 93.2 78.4 78.3 65.6 75.7 83.4
115.5 86.7 93.8 76.4 78.2 66.7 87.2 84.3
112.7 64.4 82.6 53.9 74.6 71.0 67.0 90.7
96.1 53.4 75.7 66.8 74.5 59.9 73.8 71.3
87.3 52.4 70.2 66.6 61.8 52.8 66.7 81.6
88.8 45.9 49.2 55.7 50.6 39.9 59.7 69.5
1,232 843 962 826 853 753 833 937 1,008
1
Preliminary.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Production of Refined Cottonseed Oil in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
57.4 55.8 44.8 44.4 49.4 52.7 38.5 53.4 71.2
38.1 29.1 42.4 36.2 29.6 47.1 34.6 52.0 54.7
48.3 51.1 50.4 55.1 48.2 48.3 59.8 59.7 72.8
71.0 47.9 55.6 52.2 63.6 59.2 63.5 66.1 78.5
74.8 48.5 59.5 54.9 61.3 55.7 61.4 66.9 75.1
82.2 45.4 58.3 65.7 64.9 66.5 64.3 73.4
73.1 47.3 56.7 59.8 58.0 55.6 58.4 68.8
68.2 49.0 65.8 57.8 58.5 56.8 68.3 66.6
69.8 35.2 60.0 36.9 56.2 58.9 55.1 72.3
55.2 27.4 51.0 44.8 56.7 49.4 55.1 52.7
50.3 27.5 41.9 50.0 45.2 42.4 52.4 64.6
53.0 29.7 22.0 41.5 36.8 31.7 43.8 56.6
741 494 608 599 628 624 655 753 846
1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Stocks of Cottonseed Oil (Crude and Refined) in the U.S., at End of Month Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
74
In Millions of Pounds
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
78.0 97.3 107.8 59.9 97.7 46.1 50.5 123.3 90.6
66.4 78.6 76.0 49.0 91.8 39.7 36.0 109.0 76.4
68.6 89.1 81.1 66.5 113.8 32.8 51.9 106.6 69.0
86.4 110.0 88.7 75.2 112.9 40.2 56.1 110.6 76.1
105.3 85.5 85.1 95.0 109.8 38.0 68.7 111.3 87.2
133.8 109.5 84.5 109.5 124.9 46.1 85.9 116.6
141.2 113.3 79.6 134.4 120.3 58.8 100.6 122.0
140.7 125.3 115.2 139.9 106.9 72.2 117.6 112.9
159.8 126.0 127.4 133.5 110.3 83.3 116.8 121.2
150.4 112.0 127.5 123.5 97.3 84.2 125.7 111.5
130.9 100.7 103.0 126.8 82.7 91.4 121.0 90.0
118.8 83.7 81.3 114.0 61.8 64.0 123.0 86.2
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
COTTONSEED AND PRODUCTS
Cents Per Pound ----- Prime Yellow Summer, New York (1875 - 1908) Crude, FOB Southeast Mills (Aug. 1909 - Dec. 1974) PBSY, Greenwood, MS (Jan. 1975 - date)
Average Price of Crude Cottonseed Oil, PBSY, Greenw ood, MS. in Tank Cars Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
24.45 25.21 27.69 31.72 21.98 16.24 16.38 49.82 32.76 23.70
24.35 25.44 29.37 28.21 22.65 15.20 15.89 49.90 34.21 24.38
24.25 26.18 30.46 26.27 23.70 15.53 16.77 47.52 34.91 28.19
26.77 25.10 32.47 24.39 24.57 14.03 16.98 44.57 34.47 29.80
28.46 25.19 33.13 24.25 22.97 14.53 17.95 42.33 32.57 30.63
27.94 25.01 30.22 25.19 21.54 13.27 19.48 28.69 30.72 33.13
28.25 26.53 29.40 24.70 21.03 16.78 21.30 24.38 27.83 34.15
27.81 27.11 30.11 21.39 20.17 17.18 22.32 25.51 25.29 30.44
26.13 28.03 33.26 20.22 18.52 15.78 22.32 29.64 23.29 31.25
24.55 28.47 33.99 20.15 18.16 14.44 26.84 32.93 22.74 34.44
24.28 29.11 34.16 19.69 17.83 15.91 36.90 32.24 23.88 34.09
24.29 26.78 33.40 21.25 17.25 16.07 46.89 33.26 23.81 30.50
25.96 26.51 31.47 23.95 20.86 15.41 23.34 36.73 28.87 30.39
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Exports of Cottonseed Oil to Important Countries from the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
Preliminary.
Canada
Dominican Republic
23.2 28.0 37.6 37.5 40.2 26.0 36.4 33.6 26.5 12.8
.0 .0 .1 0 .0 .0 0 0 0 0
Egypt
Guatemala
Ja p a n
0 0 0 0 0 0 3.0 0 0 0
1.7 .4 0 0 0 .5 0 0 0 0
15.8 11.3 6.0 4.2 7.6 6.5 5.4 3.5 11.6 1.0
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Mexico
Netherlands
El Salvador
South Korea
Turkey
3.3 2.5 6.1 5.4 7.9 8.6 6.9 7.2 8.6 6.5
0 4.2 0 .5 .4 3.1 0 0 0 0
20.6 25.3 16.1 .8 0 4.8 1.8 .0 0 0
7.2 1.9 2.1 .0 .1 2.5 4.7 .7 .0 .1
0 2.5 0 0 0 0 .3 0 0 0
Venezuela
.0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total
96.0 110.6 86.9 57.0 58.5 64.6 63.2 46.2 47.9 21.5
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
75
Reuters-CRB Futures Index The Reuters Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index was first calculated by Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. in 1957 and made its inaugural appearance in the 1958 CRB Commodity Year Book. The Index originally consisted of two cash markets and 26 futures markets which were traded on exchanges in the U.S. and Canada. It included barley and flaxseed from the Winnipeg exchange; cocoa, coffee “B”, copper, cotton, cottonseed oil, grease wool, hides, lead, potatoes, rubber, sugar #4, sugar #6, wool tops and zinc from New York exchanges; and corn, oats, wheat, rye, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, lard, onions, and eggs from Chicago exchanges. In addition to those 26, the Index also included the spot New Orleans cotton and Minneapolis wheat markets. Like the Bureau of Labor Statistics spot index, the Reuters-CRB Futures Price Index is calculated to produce an unweighted geometric mean of the individual commodity price relatives. In other words, a ratio of the current
price to the base year average price. Currently, 1967 is the base year the Index is calculated against (1967=100). The formula considers all future delivery contracts that expire on or before the end of the sixth calendar month from the current date, using up to a maximum of five contracts per commodity. However, a minimum of two contracts must be used to calculate the current price, even if the second contract is outside the six-month window. Contracts are excluded when in their delivery period. The 2005 closing value of 347.89 was 22.54 percent higher than the 2004 close of 283.90. 15 of the 17 component commodities finished higher for the year. Futures Markets Futures and options on the Reuters-CRB Futures Price Index are traded on the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT).
Reuters-CRB Futures Index Component Commodities by Group Groups: Energy:
Components Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Natural Gas
Grains and Oilseeds:
Corn, Soybeans, Wheat
Industrials:
Copper, Cotton
Livestock:
Live Cattle, Live Hogs
Precious Metals:
Gold, Platinum, Silver
Softs:
Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Sugar #11
The Reuters-CRB Futures Index is computed using a three-step process: 1) Each of the Index’s 17 component commodities is arithmetically averaged using the prices for all of the designated contract months which expire on or before the end of the sixth calendar month from the current date, except that: a) no contract shall be included in the calculation while in delivery; b) there shall be a minimum of two contract months for each component commodity (adding contracts beyond the six month window if necessary); c) there shall be a maximum of five contract months for each commodity (dropping the most deferred contracts to remain at five, if necessary). The result is that the Index extends six to seven months into the future depending on where one is in the current month. For example, live cattle’s average price on October 30, 1995 would be computed as follows:
Cattle Average =
Dec. ‘96 + Feb. ‘97 2
2) These 17 component averages are then geometrically averaged by multiplying all of the numbers together and taking the 17th root. Geometric Average = 17 √ Crude Avg. * Heating Oil Avg. * Sugar Avg.... 3) The resulting average is divided by 30.7766, the 1967 base-year average for these 17 commodities. That result is then multiplied by an adjustment factor of .8486. This adjustment factor is necessitated by the nine revisions to the Index since its inception in 1957. Finally, that result is multiplied by 100 in order to convert the Index into percentage terms:
Reuters-CRB Futures Index =
76
Current Geometric Average 1967 Geometric Avg. (30.7766)
* .8486 * 100
REUTERS-CRB FUTURES INDEX
Reuters-CRB Futures Index 17 Futures Markets Cattle (Live), Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold (NY), Heating Oil #2, Hogs (Lean), Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver (NY), Soybeans, Sugar #11 (World), Wheat (Chi.)
Average Open Interest of Reuters-CRB Futures Index in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1,934 1,944 1,679 2,863 3,487 1,280 422 748 838 540
1,826 2,128 1,557 3,027 3,525 1,063 514 877 870 561
1,753 2,090 1,626 3,153 3,271 1,032 458 835 942 710
2,355 2,245 1,509 3,041 3,117 1,036 384 849 704 663
1,881 2,192 1,641 3,785 3,155 969 400 939 357 644
1,890 1,817 1,895 3,388 2,737 1,006 412 905 305 683
1,562 1,957 1,832 3,300 2,104 1,058 489 858 413 861
1,345 1,741 1,719 3,443 1,640 1,048 399 917 412 1,023
1,596 1,656 1,839 4,231 1,551 993 583 1,078 539 1,016
1,853 1,843 2,162 4,851 1,632 559 646 1,029 600 1,024
1,861 1,789 2,639 4,579 1,544 354 684 1,013 581 1,016
1,866 1,752 2,787 4,087 1,438 404 710 760 604 1,035
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of Reuters-CRB Futures Index in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
7,490 6,645 7,659 7,606 14,975 2,428 1,251 2,289 2,477 1,154
6,041 4,942 4,623 7,766 6,760 1,823 1,231 2,154 1,695 861
6,428 5,245 3,953 7,556 3,941 1,310 896 1,826 3,169 2,023
10,784 8,600 3,890 7,808 7,582 2,062 1,472 1,634 2,672 1,891
9,526 8,156 2,933 4,986 7,402 930 785 1,514 1,209 1,027
5,543 7,776 5,634 8,404 8,924 1,965 1,191 2,106 1,618 2,105
7,476 6,248 3,394 4,378 2,023 880 1,217 1,632 792 1,623
5,816 7,685 4,578 12,053 3,973 2,021 915 1,350 1,341 1,931
6,311 4,537 5,101 6,660 1,333 625 1,100 1,712 759 605
6,527 4,588 4,013 8,063 2,122 1,263 1,654 2,123 813 707
5,990 3,468 8,814 9,497 3,254 843 1,430 2,502 1,630 1,258
3,181 3,592 4,401 3,932 1,205 728 1,141 2,314 979 882
81,113 71,482 58,993 88,709 63,494 16,878 14,283 23,156 19,154 16,067
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
77
Currencies A currency rate involves the price of the base currency (e.g., the dollar) quoted in terms of another currency (e.g., the yen), or in terms of a basket of currencies (e.g., the dollar index). The world’s major currencies have traded in a floating-rate exchange rate regime ever since the Bretton-Woods international payments system broke down in 1971 when President Nixon broke the dollar’s peg to gold. The two key factors affecting a currency’s value are central bank monetary policy and the trade balance. An easy monetary policy (low interest rates) is bearish for a currency because the central bank is aggressively pumping new currency reserves into the marketplace and because foreign investors are not attracted to the low interest rate returns available in the country. By contrast, a tight monetary policy (high interest rates) is bullish for a currency because of the tight supply of new currency reserves and attractive interest rate returns for foreign investors. The other key factor driving currency values is the nation’s current account balance. A current account surplus is bullish for a currency due to the net inflow of the currency, while a current account deficit is bearish for a currency due to the net outflow of the currency. Currency values are also affected by economic growth and investment opportunities in the country. A country with a strong economy and lucrative investment opportunities will typically have a strong currency because global companies and investors want to buy into that country’s investment opportunities. Futures on major currencies and on cross-currency rates are primarily traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Dollar – The dollar index in 2005 showed some recovery action after the plunge seen in 2002-04. The dollar index rallied by +15.2% in 2005 from the 10-year low of 80.39 seen in December 2004 to the 2-year high of 92.63 posted in November 2005. That produced a 30% retracement of the 33.6% plunge in the dollar index seen in 2002-04 from the 20-year high posted in July 2001. Although 2005 was a recovery year, the dollar has to prove that it has escaped from its long-term bear market trend. The dollar rallied in 2005 mainly because the US Federal Reserve during 2005 steadily tightened US monetary policy with eight consecutive 0.25 percentage point rate hikes, adding to the five rate hikes seen in 2004 (for a total rate hike in 2004 and 2005 of 3.25 percentage points). Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan clung to its zero interest rate monetary policy all during 2005 and the European Central Bank
Reuters-CRB Currencies Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
78
maintained an unchanged monetary policy until December 2005 when it implemented one small 0.25 percentage point rate hike in its refinancing rate to 2.25%. In short, interest rate differentials were strongly in the dollar’s favor in 2005 and global investors were attracted into reinvesting their dollars in higher-yielding US securities. The steady US stock market in 2005 also contributed to foreign investor confidence in dollar-denominated assets. Asian central banks also continued their heavy accumulation of US Treasury securities in 2005, mopping up the heavy outflow of dollars stemming from the US trade deficit. Strong investment demand for the dollar in 2005 allowed the dollar to survive another year in the face of the massive US current account deficit. The US current account deficit ballooned to a record 6.5% of US GDP in Q1-2005 before falling back slightly to 6.4% in Q2 and 6.2% in Q3. Looking ahead, the dollar may run into trouble later in 2006 when the Federal Reserve is done tightening monetary policy and US interest rate differentials turn sideways. At that point, attention in the foreign exchange market could shift back to the massive US current account deficit, with bearish implications for the dollar. Euro – The euro in 2005 faded from its record high of $1.3666 per euro posted in December 2004 to close the year at $1.1849, down -13.3% from 2004. The sell-off in the euro seen in 2005 retraced 37% of the 54.36 cent (+66%) rally seen in 2000-04 from the October 2000 low of 82.30 cents to the record high of $1.3666 posted in December 2004. The euro fell back in 2005 on poor interest rate differentials for the euro and on Europe’s poor economic performance. The Eurozone’s GDP growth rate in 2005 was only about +1.8%, well below the US GDP growth rate of +3.1%. Yen – The dollar showed more strength against the yen than the euro in 2005. The dollar/yen in 2005 rallied by 18.0% from the 6-year low of 101.68 yen seen in January 2005 to the 2-year high of 119.94 seen in December 2005. That rally retraced 55% of the 33.46 yen (-25%) sell-off seen in the dollar/yen from the 7-year high of 135.14 posted on January 2002 to the 6-year low of 101.68 posted in January 2005. The yen was undercut during 2005 by the Bank of Japan’s continued zero interest rate monetary policy, although the Japanese economy in 2005 finally appeared to be climbing out of its long hibernation period and the Nikkei index in 2005 rallied sharply to a new 5-year high.
(1977=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
141.69 134.61 125.06 130.97 127.65 118.42 110.20 125.37 143.44 150.16
141.01 130.30 126.10 128.48 124.37 116.58 109.38 126.36 143.23 148.99
141.12 129.56 125.65 126.37 124.01 114.25 110.40 126.61 140.68 150.81
139.61 128.71 124.96 125.74 123.43 113.01 111.33 126.42 139.36 148.53
138.11 130.83 124.33 125.32 119.42 112.24 114.54 132.07 137.62 146.39
138.37 131.75 122.86 124.63 122.54 110.92 117.39 133.04 140.48 143.52
139.53 130.14 121.89 124.08 121.59 111.29 121.30 130.30 141.81 141.21
140.52 126.84 120.65 126.89 119.04 114.02 119.68 128.77 140.92 143.74
139.51 128.02 126.18 128.89 117.11 115.20 119.54 130.93 141.25 144.42
138.74 129.07 130.98 130.66 115.99 114.04 119.02 135.96 144.04 141.94
139.92 129.58 128.86 128.24 114.89 112.69 120.77 136.23 149.66 139.32
137.47 126.93 130.69 127.71 117.55 112.01 121.97 140.44 152.54 140.48
139.63 129.70 125.68 127.33 120.63 113.72 116.29 131.04 142.92 144.96
Source: Reuters
CURRENCIES
U.S. Dollars per British Pound Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.5289 1.6590 1.6347 1.6495 1.6395 1.4767 1.4314 1.6184 1.8223 1.8783
1.5376 1.6258 1.6402 1.6269 1.6007 1.4522 1.4233 1.6077 1.8675 1.8883
1.5278 1.6095 1.6615 1.6213 1.5810 1.4438 1.4233 1.5832 1.8273 1.9034
1.5159 1.6285 1.6720 1.6085 1.5807 1.4350 1.4434 1.5751 1.8050 1.8961
1.5154 1.6325 1.6370 1.6147 1.5084 1.4268 1.4601 1.6230 1.7888 1.8538
1.5417 1.6457 1.6509 1.5957 1.5102 1.4025 1.4849 1.6606 1.8292 1.8179
1.5538 1.6717 1.6429 1.5754 1.5082 1.4149 1.5566 1.6242 1.8433 1.7518
1.5501 1.6044 1.6355 1.6051 1.4885 1.4376 1.5375 1.5942 1.8195 1.7947
1.5595 1.6020 1.6814 1.6237 1.4341 1.4646 1.5562 1.6141 1.7932 1.8078
1.5863 1.6331 1.6933 1.6570 1.4509 1.4520 1.5576 1.6778 1.8069 1.7649
1.6629 1.6887 1.6613 1.6206 1.4252 1.4358 1.5718 1.6899 1.8608 1.7355
1.6660 1.6606 1.6713 1.6131 1.4657 1.4422 1.5882 1.7536 1.9298 1.7454
1.5622 1.6385 1.6568 1.6176 1.5161 1.4403 1.5029 1.6352 1.8328 1.8198
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of British Pound Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
239.7 240.3 174.3 182.4 199.6 125.6 182.0 158.3 310.3 376.7
270.2 168.7 126.9 151.8 179.8 126.2 168.2 161.8 291.6 410.5
351.0 289.4 231.9 350.2 270.9 198.7 230.4 217.4 470.3 628.7
287.3 185.3 175.7 205.3 138.9 127.0 168.2 158.1 293.1 453.3
316.4 236.6 217.1 285.0 133.3 166.3 174.1 164.7 282.5 555.5
341.5 279.3 323.0 332.1 225.8 248.9 239.8 288.6 427.8 763.5
216.7 265.1 211.7 250.3 136.2 164.2 133.3 214.9 373.4 640.2
181.8 194.6 277.3 178.2 155.9 183.6 138.3 163.5 367.1 735.3
332.9 234.1 291.4 275.9 245.1 197.1 185.3 284.5 471.4 1,034.5
209.8 202.1 202.0 177.9 100.7 178.9 177.5 212.6 405.4 887.8
183.6 145.0 146.8 163.2 100.7 161.4 160.9 206.2 348.4 1,080.6
326.4 286.1 255.5 181.5 152.5 187.4 198.0 364.5 635.2 1,203.1
3,257.3 2,726.6 2,633.7 2,734.0 2,039.3 2,065.4 2,155.9 2,595.2 4,676.5 8,769.8
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of British Pound Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
40,315 40,479 33,616 51,519 37,192 28,776 26,450 36,892 61,694 67,140
50,106 38,370 31,282 59,705 45,329 30,555 31,023 33,066 68,173 70,872
52,349 43,742 38,712 66,913 51,645 36,532 30,474 27,042 51,968 81,799
54,954 37,701 41,256 64,937 41,488 34,713 39,952 25,274 43,830 80,850
52,573 40,956 47,303 58,744 51,965 39,836 46,178 36,171 45,843 88,397
61,461 48,890 55,511 60,414 43,009 48,310 47,355 50,118 53,615 79,278
55,080 60,592 39,156 65,206 30,766 33,273 38,138 41,702 68,262 75,387
50,862 50,829 49,645 54,373 36,320 40,935 31,320 46,979 71,503 73,199
53,868 41,801 63,756 50,949 42,781 50,083 31,513 40,183 60,274 81,479
51,934 35,752 53,458 65,038 30,978 38,579 29,599 55,884 66,565 79,854
62,128 56,825 54,004 49,468 34,627 40,461 40,901 66,660 87,487 84,884
47,652 44,667 53,578 34,191 32,913 35,424 36,671 70,197 86,572 91,497
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
79
CURRENCIES
Canadian Dollars per U.S. Dollar Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.3664 1.3484 1.4407 1.5189 1.4480 1.5021 1.5996 1.5395 1.2967 1.2248
1.3753 1.3555 1.4335 1.4971 1.4499 1.5227 1.5961 1.5119 1.3292 1.2386
1.3651 1.3727 1.4159 1.5174 1.4600 1.5579 1.5872 1.4752 1.3282 1.2157
1.3591 1.3947 1.4294 1.4868 1.4681 1.5581 1.5814 1.4567 1.3410 1.2368
1.3690 1.3793 1.4449 1.4614 1.4944 1.5403 1.5491 1.3819 1.3774 1.2553
1.3649 1.3844 1.4647 1.4691 1.4762 1.5238 1.5312 1.3520 1.3582 1.2402
1.3687 1.3769 1.4865 1.4877 1.4778 1.5294 1.5447 1.3801 1.3225 1.2239
1.3717 1.3894 1.5344 1.4921 1.4819 1.5384 1.5685 1.3948 1.3127 1.2048
1.3691 1.3865 1.5212 1.4772 1.4841 1.5665 1.5747 1.3638 1.2880 1.1781
1.3501 1.3863 1.5430 1.4767 1.5119 1.5708 1.5783 1.3226 1.2476 1.1777
1.3382 1.4127 1.5400 1.4671 1.5425 1.5934 1.5715 1.3128 1.1958 1.1813
1.3621 1.4272 1.5429 1.4713 1.5219 1.5793 1.5588 1.3121 1.2177 1.1619
1.3633 1.3845 1.4831 1.4852 1.4847 1.5486 1.5701 1.4003 1.3013 1.2116
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of Canadian Dollar Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
124,219 189,879 172,027 170,975 184,171 194,738 222,878 270,811 380,748 548,622
124,654 127,310 202,027 173,034 182,462 201,075 191,493 256,672 327,964 483,026
186,534 295,170 277,089 279,945 280,898 317,860 338,303 475,496 516,334 677,978
129,105 151,141 142,616 203,427 155,044 188,203 249,581 289,192 380,252 592,867
149,127 230,733 143,170 164,352 162,780 228,359 222,156 353,096 337,100 555,160
179,150 276,764 291,488 309,740 295,480 350,967 358,727 494,150 503,963 761,548
123,604 146,870 153,415 216,066 165,972 221,558 278,828 331,345 366,509 562,165
138,816 187,149 214,046 186,031 188,459 235,883 204,168 266,189 419,381 566,270
194,077 262,260 288,749 263,380 241,197 265,096 279,134 393,329 640,847 914,184
179,652 268,428 148,714 167,703 161,625 214,085 245,261 285,682 511,981 671,295
194,001 130,528 148,906 165,587 150,275 218,108 207,379 294,352 499,452 736,016
263,924 322,879 209,962 277,211 265,763 287,335 324,380 509,304 726,797 861,025
1,986,863 2,589,111 2,392,209 2,577,451 2,434,126 2,923,267 3,122,288 4,219,618 5,611,328 7,930,156
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Canadian Dollar Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
31,028 55,949 63,300 50,061 66,374 54,369 68,927 82,870 74,577 74,703
37,674 56,600 67,862 71,819 64,528 58,660 72,132 105,051 64,032 84,753
38,551 72,803 61,528 63,782 58,621 72,051 70,484 107,507 61,981 93,986
41,411 82,732 58,938 73,773 60,389 64,550 68,120 97,515 72,750 77,680
46,470 73,747 64,859 84,885 76,444 65,407 81,574 96,689 84,356 95,229
37,141 57,243 74,027 71,923 69,033 62,489 86,250 85,665 68,458 79,464
37,522 43,937 71,313 65,877 67,198 54,742 74,347 68,741 73,164 86,451
42,063 59,112 75,193 71,458 65,370 54,580 63,116 63,518 83,483 101,128
44,014 56,387 60,863 61,994 65,779 73,647 63,605 70,261 97,486 120,542
68,674 59,265 51,967 58,749 81,995 71,610 57,031 79,754 112,648 108,095
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
80
Nov.
D e c.
82,817 72,586 75,027 74,221 61,318 50,271 59,941 51,967 77,746 65,452 82,083 67,578 60,648 71,852 82,366 74,271 110,035 81,976 106,773 122,584
CURRENCIES
Euro1 per U.S. Dollar Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.2629 1.2088 1.0859 1.1584 1.0135 .9380 .8828 1.0636 1.2604 1.3110
1.2543 1.1592 1.0896 1.1202 .9842 .9208 .8706 1.0778 1.2633 1.3020
1.2544 1.1460 1.0854 1.0882 .9644 .9085 .8767 1.0795 1.2263 1.3178
1.2430 1.1396 1.0931 1.0700 .9450 .8931 .8866 1.0875 1.1999 1.2940
1.2278 1.1441 1.1099 1.0622 .9080 .8747 .9179 1.1580 1.2013 1.2685
1.2386 1.1309 1.1015 1.0385 .9496 .8536 .9567 1.1670 1.2147 1.2156
1.2554 1.0999 1.0991 1.0366 .9394 .8616 .9924 1.1374 1.2265 1.2049
1.2686 1.0694 1.1041 1.0603 .9042 .9023 .9781 1.1154 1.2192 1.2299
1.2587 1.0976 1.1566 1.0501 .8706 .9123 .9810 1.1260 1.2226 1.2246
1.2532 1.1190 1.2015 1.0705 .8533 .9062 .9818 1.1701 1.2504 1.2030
1.2695 1.1418 1.1680 1.0327 .8554 .8882 1.0020 1.1714 1.3001 1.1796
1.2416 1.1114 1.1746 1.0117 .9004 .8913 1.0210 1.2314 1.3415 1.1861
1.2523 1.1306 1.1224 1.0666 .9240 .8959 .9456 1.1321 1.2439 1.2448
1
Data through December 1998 are theoretical based on DEM * 1.95583.
Volume of Trading of Euro FX Futures in Chicago Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
------------0.0 69.0 96.6 288.4 157.6 183.7 404.9 335.0 452.4 289.4 318.3 453.5 373.2 556.4 368.3 407.7 567.8 582.3 783.3 650.2 611.4 610.6 749.2 977.9 785.5 902.7 1,487.3 1,469.2 1,837.7 1,326.7 1,328.9 2,646.0 2,266.4 2,772.9 2,992.0 2,771.6
Source: FOREX
In Thousands of Contracts
June
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
0 0 0 276.4 259.7 258.1 382.2 234.9 303.3 585.3 425.1 494.7 917.7 821.6 525.5 1,103.8 866.2 824.5 1,682.2 1,491.2 1,518.5 3,656.1 2,732.6 2,765.1
July
0 422.8 486.3 533.9 675.3 1,112.4 1,798.7 3,206.6
0 302.5 287.7 533.6 525.2 1,069.6 1,786.0 2,613.6
0 303.1 297.0 545.0 426.7 958.9 2,138.5 3,164.2
0.0 383.0 466.7 781.1 625.4 1,232.6 2,591.9 2,943.6
0.0 3,000.8 4,258.2 6,057.8 7,712.3 11,193.9 20,456.7 34,530.7
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Euro FX Futures in Chicago Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
---8,261 63,124 89,049 100,258 105,762 125,879 135,748
---30,546 68,413 91,130 108,955 106,905 133,690 152,110
---37,837 61,180 90,127 113,075 100,759 115,712 140,879
---37,881 59,110 78,762 112,413 85,604 112,361 130,131
1 46,446 67,644 89,390 136,660 108,619 138,193 154,751
1 50,615 63,361 94,160 135,364 111,651 120,281 163,584
1 46,777 57,723 84,637 112,462 96,338 140,430 142,826
1 55,858 69,561 104,437 101,992 98,671 160,315 148,309
1 49,352 77,617 112,797 99,365 95,553 121,180 149,184
0 57,380 73,314 108,445 85,462 102,568 136,959 142,879
7 58,846 79,577 108,999 103,156 113,601 202,074 171,035
7 65,346 92,730 104,323 108,602 131,560 175,374 160,065
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
81
CURRENCIES
Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
105.66 117.93 129.39 113.23 105.29 116.83 132.77 118.76 106.38 103.29
105.57 122.90 125.71 116.62 109.49 116.17 133.50 119.39 106.70 104.98
105.90 122.72 129.04 119.49 106.34 121.44 131.11 118.76 108.51 105.35
107.23 125.66 131.79 119.73 105.65 123.64 130.75 119.81 107.61 107.19
106.42 118.93 135.01 121.88 108.19 121.66 126.29 117.37 112.05 106.71
108.91 114.25 140.40 120.69 106.15 122.38 123.25 118.31 109.44 108.75
109.21 115.30 140.75 119.38 108.03 124.45 118.02 118.64 109.46 111.92
107.84 117.90 144.51 113.16 108.06 121.29 119.04 118.61 110.24 110.62
109.87 120.85 134.45 107.00 106.79 118.64 120.88 114.94 110.10 111.19
112.40 121.06 120.49 105.94 108.39 121.35 123.92 109.51 108.81 114.84
112.35 125.35 120.41 104.62 108.94 122.39 121.50 109.17 104.71 118.42
114.01 129.62 117.01 102.64 112.18 127.72 121.83 107.70 103.79 118.39
108.78 121.04 130.75 113.70 107.79 121.50 125.24 115.91 108.15 110.14
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of Japanese Yen Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
431.1 411.6 557.8 418.1 433.9 258.6 415.7 423.9 410.1 789.9
412.3 457.2 500.9 524.6 299.1 223.7 417.5 388.3 484.9 718.8
473.1 564.8 636.6 672.7 569.7 598.4 630.8 634.4 741.8 1,045.2
415.8 402.7 480.3 400.4 250.5 295.4 391.7 453.4 516.4 915.4
438.5 604.6 453.4 473.4 265.8 351.2 318.5 495.6 415.5 876.2
566.7 564.2 1,017.0 687.1 427.4 459.4 461.7 621.0 685.8 1,263.0
461.8 424.3 515.9 476.9 248.8 307.4 301.2 518.8 487.5 946.9
328.6 528.2 590.8 422.3 285.9 369.4 234.2 427.0 490.7 1,012.4
549.7 611.8 895.8 679.1 367.1 518.6 499.2 731.0 807.6 1,285.4
343.1 529.6 551.9 310.5 213.9 286.2 349.5 396.6 629.6 963.7
388.0 425.8 386.3 390.5 222.7 350.1 255.4 353.4 650.5 1,001.0
D e c.
Total
482.2 5,290.9 644.8 6,169.6 467.2 7,053.8 469.1 5,924.8 405.2 3,990.0 595.9 4,614.1 535.8 4,811.1 641.8 6,085.2 1,074.9 7,395.3 1,653.9 12,471.7
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Japanese Yen Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
80,645 73,391 95,338 78,767 93,785 89,680 129,917 116,574 156,929 164,708
78,915 82,542 101,448 81,859 125,318 90,652 123,735 107,929 156,416 155,593
71,643 78,466 97,183 96,271 95,034 109,536 95,535 101,809 120,848 132,268
76,655 81,117 97,389 87,829 75,631 96,244 72,358 81,168 117,483 134,802
73,832 85,984 106,139 118,819 80,840 89,377 88,905 107,090 108,078 172,574
85,398 73,322 132,732 120,681 68,359 82,838 88,324 102,507 105,505 164,580
77,941 62,488 113,084 118,329 60,966 93,430 77,168 107,450 106,280 161,763
73,535 82,369 145,241 136,826 79,195 107,588 71,683 125,884 110,234 170,290
86,723 96,468 108,808 115,884 64,845 102,710 79,980 149,978 93,780 159,227
76,620 90,080 88,991 82,657 64,648 75,096 80,104 152,368 127,644 186,631
72,130 130,606 89,108 87,869 68,719 97,368 74,584 138,799 181,093 202,939
67,301 121,001 79,262 87,595 100,713 137,756 99,643 147,255 172,526 191,591
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
82
CURRENCIES
Sw iss Francs per U.S. Dollar Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.1810 1.3925 1.4756 1.3856 1.5888 1.6296 1.6710 1.3748 1.2425 1.1802
1.1942 1.4543 1.4616 1.4273 1.6326 1.6681 1.6972 1.3609 1.2458 1.1906
1.1945 1.4622 1.4896 1.4656 1.6624 1.6903 1.6741 1.3617 1.2773 1.1763
1.2194 1.4614 1.5050 1.4972 1.6638 1.7115 1.6527 1.3770 1.2954 1.1955
1.2546 1.4298 1.4782 1.5078 1.7151 1.7525 1.5868 1.3091 1.2818 1.2183
1.2574 1.4419 1.4951 1.5359 1.6422 1.7842 1.5389 1.3196 1.2501 1.2663
1.2324 1.4810 1.5126 1.5472 1.6503 1.7564 1.4731 1.3597 1.2458 1.2935
1.2022 1.5123 1.4927 1.5092 1.7146 1.6791 1.4968 1.3813 1.2625 1.2626
1.2333 1.4702 1.4002 1.5251 1.7564 1.6338 1.4929 1.3741 1.2624 1.2657
1.2583 1.4507 1.3376 1.4891 1.7727 1.6337 1.4922 1.3234 1.2338 1.2872
1.2757 1.4057 1.3856 1.5541 1.7772 1.6501 1.4647 1.3314 1.1702 1.3100
1.3296 1.4393 1.3600 1.5827 1.6778 1.6569 1.4360 1.2627 1.1455 1.3056
1.2361 1.4501 1.4495 1.5022 1.6878 1.6872 1.5564 1.3446 1.2428 1.2460
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of Sw iss Franc Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
321,668 360,482 308,046 294,598 326,213 193,487 195,322 236,109 216,137 444,336
301,971 316,346 256,815 262,128 313,127 203,006 183,156 289,893 230,067 389,133
317,936 436,807 448,008 416,987 385,297 280,280 281,307 412,709 359,615 575,471
314,692 343,582 318,515 284,021 252,122 168,700 211,505 256,871 260,008 605,036
329,676 432,533 319,210 323,252 247,653 191,601 208,078 277,835 255,749 521,379
349,509 389,458 367,417 384,664 301,236 325,961 297,010 384,893 370,884 753,384
345,546 316,105 310,745 351,105 214,594 257,565 187,191 314,997 331,439 546,389
247,502 305,189 360,394 311,835 216,576 229,380 218,533 252,056 313,712 596,441
393,374 394,103 438,052 482,425 344,515 261,837 323,067 349,889 404,509 888,790
333,207 429,683 300,715 407,570 176,202 227,481 237,559 237,163 428,339 765,870
339,849 220,959 251,266 287,172 185,388 238,232 207,825 283,751 328,950 797,073
451,999 344,886 290,785 304,493 267,322 297,281 271,584 300,492 568,358 901,196
4,046,929 4,290,133 3,969,968 4,110,250 3,230,245 2,874,811 2,822,137 3,596,658 4,067,767 7,784,498
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Sw iss Franc Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
42,280 51,652 57,740 39,434 55,660 50,121 35,116 56,268 45,259 51,858
42,902 54,114 46,160 58,279 69,983 44,405 44,388 57,099 42,950 56,240
36,924 51,121 67,722 66,250 57,703 46,470 45,434 50,008 41,250 50,827
39,233 45,725 67,303 66,530 41,732 41,641 38,248 37,451 38,563 41,322
46,810 48,651 63,477 73,322 46,159 53,265 55,039 53,642 38,024 55,995
44,848 42,530 77,564 75,322 41,727 60,943 54,573 49,688 48,654 78,794
38,300 55,279 85,984 66,603 36,894 53,687 42,060 41,489 51,116 72,596
40,298 58,098 70,569 71,060 50,595 60,986 38,102 50,677 40,256 67,489
43,695 49,296 81,465 60,214 57,439 61,689 37,675 52,641 33,539 66,009
47,613 43,585 57,413 65,020 47,313 48,962 35,796 54,259 47,200 75,088
53,581 51,822 44,810 67,936 48,870 53,445 48,951 62,584 74,988 91,072
59,405 48,560 43,436 64,507 55,982 46,771 50,107 60,475 70,330 98,443
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
83
CURRENCIES United States Merchandise Trade Balance1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
In Millions of Dollars
May
-15,623 -12,911 -14,574 -15,897 -16,826 -18,167 -16,780 -14,896 -16,505 -16,982 -17,187 -18,331 -20,615 -20,860 -22,236 -23,409 -25,233 -25,741 -25,851 -27,753 -34,116 -34,708 -37,215 -36,934 -36,910 -39,161 -34,648 -38,815 -37,270 -34,690 -33,407 -31,405 -31,865 -39,875 -39,229 -43,619 -38,301 -43,538 -46,145 -43,275 -46,107 -42,624 -50,548 -52,313 -49,844 -57,594 -55,419 -56,774 -60,231 -60,759
Not seasonally adjusted.
2
Preliminary.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
-14,839 -17,757 -16,759 -17,976 -15,320 -15,610 -15,864 -16,909 -16,524 -16,270 -20,404 -21,066 -22,291 -21,611 -20,990 -30,381 -31,227 -30,518 -30,573 -31,576 -37,827 -38,091 -36,839 -39,682 -40,205 -35,760 -35,633 -34,458 -35,660 -35,034 -37,590 -46,642 -44,082 -43,241 -45,583 -43,882 -51,798 -45,166 -49,478 -51,812 -60,218 -60,065 -60,750 -57,763 -62,552 -65,095 -66,854 -70,394 -73,182 -77,572
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors
Nov.
Total
-191,270 -196,652 -246,853 -345,434 -452,423 -427,215 -482,298 -547,296 -665,389 -782,101
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Index of Real Trade-Weighted Dollar Exchange Rates for Total Agriculture2 Year
D e c.
-15,176 -17,695 -16,605 -16,962 -21,539 -21,059 -32,401 -32,255 -38,955 -39,360 -34,095 -31,534 -44,076 -45,303 -42,937 -47,345 -66,318 -56,287 -72,371 -65,856
2000 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
97.2 79.9 91.9 75.0 94.3 87.7 102.9 99.0 109.3 106.9 102.5 89.6 93.2 71.8 86.5 67.5
95.3 78.6 93.7 78.5 96.2 90.9 104.0 102.0 110.6 109.9 102.9 88.6 93.6 72.1 86.9 68.2
94.9 79.0 95.0 80.8 96.6 93.3 106.1 104.1 109.7 109.2 102.9 88.3 94.7 74.5 87.0 67.8
94.5 78.2 95.1 82.1 97.4 95.6 107.1 106.2 109.4 108.0 101.7 86.4 95.8 76.4 88.5 69.4
95.3 77.2 96.0 82.5 99.7 100.6 107.5 108.6 107.1 104.2 98.3 79.8 97.4 77.1 88.4 70.5
97.4 78.9 96.0 84.8 98.5 96.1 108.5 111.7 105.5 100.2 98.5 79.6 96.5 76.7 89.7 73.7
97.5 79.3 96.3 85.1 99.0 97.3 108.8 110.5 103.6 97.1 100.0 82.3 95.7 75.4 90.9 74.8
99.5 79.4 94.9 83.7 99.6 101.2 106.4 105.0 104.8 99.4 100.9 84.4 95.6 75.6 90.1 73.3
97.5 75.3 94.4 85.1 101.4 106.0 106.6 104.6 105.7 99.3 99.3 83.0 92.2 74.6 90.8 74.2
93.8 72.1 93.8 83.7 103.1 109.1 106.9 105.1 106.5 99.6 96.7 78.8 91.1 72.7 92.5 75.9
93.4 73.7 94.1 86.6 103.3 109.0 107.4 106.5 105.1 97.2 96.2 78.1 87.9 69.0 93.5 77.9
91.6 73.2 93.8 87.8 102.2 102.4 107.8 104.7 104.0 93.9 94.3 74.0 86.1 66.0 94.1 78.5
Preliminary. 2 Real indexes adjust nominal exchange rates for differences in rates of inflation, to avoid the distortion caused by high-inflation countries. A higher value means the dollar has appreciated. Federal Reserve Board I ndex of trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar against 10 major currencies. Weights are based on relative importance in world financial markets. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
1
United States Balance on Current Account1 Year
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Annual
-17,642 -25,771 -33,670 -53,439 -87,011 -95,904 -96,595 -121,840 -130,563 -177,690
-30,394 -29,428 -51,589 -72,220 -100,303 -99,111 -119,857 -130,281 -167,465 -200,181
-45,768 -44,017 -69,563 -90,368 -117,144 -102,232 -131,815 -140,505 -179,149 -209,703
-31,090 -41,690 -59,242 -84,033 -111,541 -92,209 -126,944 -127,053 -190,897
-124,894 -140,906 -214,064 -300,060 -415,999 -389,456 -475,211 -519,679 -668,074 -783,432
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 1
In Millions of Dollars
First Quarter
Not seasonally adjusted.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Merchandise Trade and Current Account Balances
In Billions of Dollars
----------------------------- Merchandise Trade Balance ----------------------------Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2 0 0 51 20062 1
Estimate.
84
2
------------------------------ Current Account Balance ------------------------------
Canada
Germany
Ja p a n
Switzerland
U.K.
Canada
Germany
Ja p a n
Switzerland
U.K.
12.6 12.3 24.2 41.6 41.2 32.1 33.5 41.6 40.5 50.3
26.9 29.7 17.9 6.9 38.4 92.9 99.8 134.4 143.7 148.8
47.4 72.4 69.4 68.0 26.2 51.2 69.3 89.0 56.8 62.3
14.7 13.4 15.1 14.3 11.3 18.0 21.5 26.6 25.6 25.6
1.4 -13.2 -25.0 -29.0 -38.8 -47.6 -50.8 -71.5 -84.5 -99.8
-8.2 -7.7 1.7 19.7 16.3 13.4 13.2 22.0 19.9 30.1
-9.5 -15.7 -26.4 -31.0 3.3 46.3 53.3 103.4 114.0 125.4
96.7 119.3 115.0 119.6 88.5 112.1 137.2 172.0 158.0 171.7
24.6 25.1 29.3 30.4 20.0 23.3 43.2 52.3 48.2 48.2
-3.0 -6.7 -39.3 -36.7 -31.9 -24.6 -27.6 -42.6 -40.5 -49.8
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
CURRENCIES
85
Diamonds The diamond, which is the mineral form of carbon, is the hardest, strongest natural material known on earth. The name diamond is derived from adamas, the ancient Greek term meaning “invincible.” Diamonds form deep within the Earth’s crust and are typically billions of years old. Diamonds have also have been found in and near meteorites and their craters. Diamonds are considered precious gemstones but lower grade diamonds are used for industrial applications such as drilling, cutting, grinding and polishing.
The world’s largest producers of natural gem diamonds are Botswana with 26% of world production in 2004, Russia with 24%, Australia with 10%, Congo with 7%, and South Africa with 7%. World production of natural industrial diamonds in 2004 fell by –5.4% yr/yr to 66.600 million carats. The main producer of synthetic diamonds is the US with 252.000 million carats of production in 2004, representing 45% of world production. Trade – The US relied on net imports for 85% of its consumption of natural diamonds, which totaled 2.0 million carats in 2004.
Supply – World production of natural gem diamonds in 2004 rose by +0.8% yr/yr to a record high of 89.400 million carats (one carat equals 1/5 gram or 200 milligrams).
World Production of Natural Gem Diamonds Year
Angola
Australia
Botswana
Brazil
Central African Republic
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
3,360 3,880 4,640 4,520 4,500 5,400
13,403 11,956 11,779 15,142 14,900 9,279
17,200 18,500 19,800 21,300 22,800 23,300
900 1,000 700 500 500 500
311 348 340 312 250 250
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Formerly Zaire.
In Thousands of Carats China
Congo3
Ghana
Namibia
Russia
Sierra Leone
South Africa
World Total
230 230 235 235 235 250
4,120 3,500 3,640 4,400 5,400 6,000
546 792 936 770 760 800
1,630 1,450 1,487 1,562 1,481 2,000
11,500 17,500 17,500 17,400 20,000 21,400
7 58 167 147 250 309
4,000 4,320 4,470 4,350 5,070 5,780
60,600 67,100 70,400 76,700 88,700 89,400
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
World Production of Natural Industrial Diamonds Year
Angola
Australia
Botswana
Brazil
Central African Republic
373 431 516 502 500 600
16,381 14,612 14,397 18,500 18,200 11,341
5,730 6,160 6,600 7,100 7,600 7,800
-------------------
120 116 113 104 83 83
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Formerly Zaire.
Year
Belarus
China
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
16,500 16,800 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000
3,000 ----------------
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
China
Congo3
Ghana
Russia
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Venezuela
World Total
920 920 950 955 955 960
16,000 14,200 14,560 17,456 21,600 22,000
136 198 234 193 190 200
11,500 11,700 11,700 11,600 13,000 14,200
2 19 56 205 257 304
6,010 6,470 6,700 6,530 7,600 8,670
36 80 28 61 24 60
57,600 55,400 56,200 63,600 70,400 66,600
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
World Production of Synthetic Diamonds Czech Republic
In Thousands of Carats
In Thousands of Carats
France
Greece
Ireland
Ja p a n
Russia
South Africa
Sweden
Ukraine
United States
World Total
3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
750 750 -------------
60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000
32,000 33,000 33,000 34,000 34,000 34,000
80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
------60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000
25,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
161,000 182,000 202,000 222,000 236,000 252,000
420,000 429,000 508,000 529,000 543,000 559,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Industrial Diamonds in the United States
In Millions of Carats
Bort, Grit & Pow der & Dust
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
---------------------------------------- Natural and Synthetic ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- Stones (Natural) ---------------------------------Net Import Price Price ----- Production ----Value of Reliance Value of Apparent Imports Apparent Imports Secon- Imports In ManuImports Manu% of Con- $ Per Gov't Confor Con- Exports & factured Gov't factured Con$ Per dary Pro- for Con- Exports & Diamond Secondary sumption Reexports Products Sales sumption Carat duction sumption Reexports Sales sumption Carat sumption
208.0 182.0 202.0 219.0 236.0 252.0
Preliminary.
86
2
10.0 10.0 10.0 5.7 4.7 4.6
Estimate.
208.0 291.0 281.0 185.0 250.0 240.0 3
98.0 98.0 88.0 82.0 74.0 86.0
Less than 1/2 unit.
-------------------
3
----------------
328.0 385.0 405.0 328.0 417.0 411.0
.44 .39 .31 .34 .26 .25
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
.4 3 3 3 3 3
3.1 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.8
.7 1.6 1.0 1.1 .3 .5
.6 1.0 .5 .4 .4 .4
3.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.1
4.61 5.31 3.54 5.43 3.09 7.77
88 86 91 88 80 85
Eggs Eggs are a low-priced protein source and are consumed worldwide. Each commercial chicken lays between 265-280 eggs per year. In the United States, the grade and size of eggs are regulated under the federal Egg Products Inspection Act (1970). The grades of eggs are AA, A, and B, and must have sound, whole shells and must be clean. The difference among the grades of eggs is internal and mostly reflects the freshness of the egg. Table eggs vary in color and can be determined by the color of the chicken’s earlobe— white earlobes lay white eggs, reddish-brown earlobes lay brown eggs, etc. In the US, egg size is determined by the weight of a dozen eggs, not individual eggs, and range from Peewee to Jumbo. Store-bought eggs in the shell stay fresh for 3 to 5 weeks in a home refrigerator, according to the USDA. Eggs are primarily used as a source of food, although eggs are also widely used for medical purposes. Fertile eggs, as a source of purified proteins, are used to produce many vaccines. Flu vaccines are produced by growing single strains of the flu virus in eggs, which are then extracted to make the vaccine. Eggs are also used in biotechnology to create new drugs. The hen’s genetic make-up can be altered so the whites of the eggs are rich in tailored proteins that form the basis of medicines to fight cancer and other diseases. The US biotech company Viragen and the Roslin Institute in Edinburgh have produced eggs with 100 mg or more of the easily-extracted proteins used in new drugs to treat various illnesses including ovarian and breast cancers. Prices – The average monthly price of all eggs received
Wo rld P ro d u ctio n o f E g g s
1
In Millions of Eggs
Brazil
Chi na
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Mexi co
Russia
Spain
Ukrai ne
Uni ted Ki ngdom
Uni ted States
World Total3
12,700 13,460 16,065 15,932 12,596 13,636 14,768 15,654 16,435
235,960 281,010 301,860 253,680 282,350 307,760 365,300 377,420 389,000
15,355 16,370 16,911 16,500 16,084 16,900 17,550 17,500 17,450
13,678 13,960 13,838 13,922 14,025 14,164 14,341 14,350 14,350
11,502 11,599 12,017 11,923 12,298 12,433 12,660 12,400 12,400
43,252 43,047 42,167 42,786 42,588 42,117 41,975 41,800 42,000
21,471 25,896 25,760 26,045 28,170 29,898 32,428 33,310 33,640
40,300 37,400 33,720 31,500 31,900 33,000 33,000 33,500 34,200
8,454 9,670 9,983 8,952 9,450 9,084 9,216 8,900 9,000
11,766 10,145 9,404 8,763 8,242 8,269 8,740 8,000 7,700
10,645 10,620 10,644 10,668 10,752 10,812 10,293 10,000 9,800
72,072 74,136 74,592 76,536 77,676 79,896 82,944 84,420 85,020
593,734 643,045 670,211 631,846 666,748 695,281 762,077 778,995 795,711
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 20012
by farmers in the US in 2005 fell by -22.4% yr/yr to 55.1 cents per dozen, which was down from the 15-year high of 73.8 cents posted in 2003. Supply – World egg production in 2001, the latest reporting year, rose +2.1% yr/yr to 795.711 billion eggs. The world’s largest egg producers are China with 49% of world production, the US with 11%, Japan with 5%, Russia with 4%, and Mexico with 4%. US egg production in 2005 (through November, annualized) rose +0.6% to 89.799 billion eggs, which was a new record high. The average number of hens and pullets on US farms in 2004 rose by +1.0% yr/yr to 342.279 million to a new record high. Demand – US consumption of eggs in 2005 rose +0.6% yr/yr to a new record high of 6.405 billion eggs. That was a new record high and was up 60% from 10-years earlier, reflecting sharply higher egg consumption in the post 2001 period due to the popularity of a low-carbohydrate diet since eggs are high in protein. US per capita egg consumption in 2005 rose +0.4% yr/yr to 255.7 eggs per year per person. Per capita egg consumption was at a high of 277.2 eggs in 1970, fell sharply in the 1990s to a low of 174.9 in 1995, and then began rebounding in 1997 to current levels of over 250 eggs per year. Trade – US imports of eggs in 2005 fell by –11.1% yr/yr to 12.0 million dozen eggs, falling from the 15-year high of 15.0 million posted in 2002. US export of eggs in 2005 rose by +20.1% yr/yr to 200.0 million dozen eggs, but that was still below the record export level of 253.1 million dozen eggs in 1996.
P reliminary.
2
F orecast.
3
Selected countries.
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
Salient Statistics of Eggs in the United States
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052
-- Hens & Pullets -Average Number On During Farm Year D e c. 1 3 ----- Thousands -----
312,137 321,718 329,320 332,410 338,628 339,827 340,979 343,922 347,917
304,230 312,035 322,354 327,985 335,012 339,024 338,393 341,956 343,501
Rate of Lay Per Layer During Year4 (Number)
255 255 257 257 256 257 259 261 262
--------- Eggs --------Price in Cents P er Total Dozen Produced ------- Millions -------
77,532 79,754 82,715 84,386 85,745 87,252 87,473 89,091 89,960
70.3 66.8 62.2 61.8 62.2 58.9 73.2 71.4
----- Consumption ----Value of Production5 Million Dollars
4,540 4,439 4,287 4,346 4,446 4,281 5,333 5,303
Total Egg ProUsed for Per Capita duction Imports6 Exports6 Hatching Total E g g s6 ----------------------------- Million Doz en ----------------------------(Number)
6,489 6,658 6,912 7,034 7,157 7,270 7,297 7,443 7,508
6.9 5.8 7.4 8.4 8.9 15.0 13.3 12.7 8.3
227.8 218.8 161.9 171.1 190.0 174.0 146.2 167.5 209.6
894.7 921.8 941.7 940.2 964.2 961.3 959.4 987.2 996.1
5,359 5,522 5,817 5,927 6,013 6,149 6,201 6,300 6,309
235.8 240.2 250.1 252.1 252.7 256.0 255.7 257.2 255.0
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 All layers of laying age. 4 Number of eggs produced during the year divided by the average number of all layers of laying age on hand during the year. 5 Value of sales plus value of eggs consumed in households of producers. 6 Shell-egg equivalent of eggs and egg products. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
1
87
EGGS
Cents Per Dozen ----- Fresh, Boston (1856 - 1899) Fresh, New York (1900 - 1909) Fresh Firsts, New York (Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1926) Fresh Firsts, Chicago (Jan. 1927 - June 1943) US Standards, Chicago (July 1943 - Dec. 1947) Large, Chicago (Jan. 1948 - date)
Average Price Received by Farmers for All Eggs in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
78.2 76.5 74.3 72.5 57.8 67.2 62.3 63.6 92.6 55.8
75.7 76.1 64.9 66.1 67.8 68.2 55.9 59.3 87.5 55.1
79.1 72.3 69.9 68.6 56.9 69.1 68.5 68.7 110.0 52.6
75.8 66.0 63.7 60.3 64.7 65.0 52.2 68.6 76.7 45.5
69.3 64.2 54.9 54.9 52.0 55.2 50.5 58.7 62.6 52.6
70.7 59.4 59.6 56.2 61.8 55.0 62.1 67.2 77.3 46.9
69.8 65.6 58.2 58.8 56.5 54.0 60.8 68.7 64.0 53.0
73.7 63.1 65.0 59.7 66.4 56.6 66.4 80.8 52.6 47.0
75.8 69.6 63.3 57.5 59.2 55.5 57.1 77.6 53.8 64.3
73.5 65.9 66.3 52.0 66.8 59.9 56.0 83.8 49.4 51.3
82.0 80.8 72.8 64.1 72.0 64.1 70.7 102.0 60.4 65.3
87.9 78.7 75.5 60.3 80.7 59.0 62.8 86.8 65.4 71.9
76.0 69.9 65.7 60.9 63.6 60.7 60.4 73.8 71.0 55.1
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Wholesale Price of Shell Eggs (Large) Delivered, Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents Per Dozen
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
85.25 79.77 75.20 72.34 54.97 68.52 60.43 69.57 105.10 54.78
80.00 75.18 64.92 62.13 59.65 64.45 52.00 65.39 103.89 60.26
86.12 77.25 74.68 67.85 52.93 69.00 68.00 71.05 115.00 48.32
78.88 68.55 63.64 52.74 61.71 66.12 47.23 68.83 86.88 42.00
69.77 64.40 51.91 51.35 42.59 50.61 43.73 59.10 67.28 41.57
73.00 61.02 61.86 47.86 55.18 49.81 56.40 68.76 70.00 40.72
74.73 74.66 65.00 58.40 52.80 52.83 53.02 72.39 63.12 51.38
80.59 66.07 68.76 59.30 64.39 55.46 57.16 88.26 59.45 42.78
83.80 74.26 67.76 52.86 58.08 50.21 53.20 86.21 55.81 61.19
79.13 68.39 71.45 48.38 66.45 57.41 54.43 92.07 53.79 48.38
93.68 89.87 75.85 59.26 74.26 62.50 74.00 113.16 60.36 62.41
94.60 82.68 75.27 56.38 84.90 58.05 66.38 101.09 69.83 70.21
81.63 73.51 68.03 57.40 60.66 58.75 57.17 79.66 75.88 52.00
Preliminary.
88
In Cents Per Dozen
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
EGGS Total Egg Production in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Eggs
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
6,398 6,577 6,766 6,979 7,157 7,226 7,264 7,390 7,386 7,626
5,954 5,909 6,109 6,281 6,648 6,524 6,581 6,665 6,901 6,928
6,495 6,625 6,869 7,052 7,234 7,336 7,417 7,424 7,547 7,738
6,243 6,355 6,603 6,784 7,013 7,099 7,105 7,187 7,358 7,407
6,340 6,519 6,665 6,941 7,104 7,240 7,297 7,327 7,513 7,572
6,169 6,292 6,456 6,742 6,801 6,992 7,126 7,105 7,289 7,346
6,440 6,457 6,720 6,903 7,061 7,195 7,347 7,403 7,557 7,563
6,447 6,500 6,694 6,971 7,104 7,221 7,356 7,367 7,538 7,528
6,235 6,366 6,480 6,860 6,854 7,044 7,147 7,112 7,344 7,348
6,495 6,664 6,791 7,131 7,130 7,347 7,412 7,439 7,659 7,665
6,409 6,572 6,723 7,016 7,027 7,191 7,226 7,326 7,482 7,514
6,696 6,841 7,047 7,279 7,287 7,420 7,451 7,554 7,721 7,791
76,321 77,677 79,923 82,939 84,420 85,835 86,729 87,299 89,295 90,026
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Per Capita Disappearance of Eggs4 in the United States
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Total Consumption (Million Dozen)
44.0 44.5 59.0 60.5 62.7 64.5
43.1 42.1 59.3 60.5 62.8 64.0
42.7 43.4 59.7 61.1 63.8 64.2
45.0 45.0 62.1 63.2 66.2 65.6
174.9 175.0 240.1 244.9 255.7 258.2
5,167 5,242 5,359 5,522 5,817 5,927
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast
In Number of Eggs
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
64.5 62.4 62.6 63.7 63.3 63.3
64.2 62.6 63.0 63.9 62.9 64.2
64.7 64.0 63.8 64.1 63.8 64.7
66.6 64.6 65.3 65.5 65.4 65.7
2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 20063
Total Consumption (Million Dozen) Total
252.7 255.5 254.7 257.2 254.3 256.2
6,013 6,148 6,177 6,365 6,405 6,540
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Egg-Feed Ratio1 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
9.8 10.1 10.1 11.7 8.9 10.9 10.2 9.0 12.9 7.2
8.7 9.9 8.3 10.6 11.3 11.4 8.4 8.0 10.7 7.4
9.1 8.6 9.4 11.3 8.0 11.6 11.6 9.5 13.2 6.3
7.9 7.4 8.5 9.2 9.9 11.3 7.4 9.3 7.8 5.0
6.5 7.1 6.7 7.8 6.4 8.6 6.7 6.9 6.0 4.5
6.7 6.6 8.0 8.2 9.5 8.5 9.5 8.8 6.6 4.2
6.3 8.2 7.9 9.9 9.2 7.9 7.5 9.8 5.9 5.8
6.9 7.8 10.8 10.1 12.9 8.4 7.9 12.7 5.6 5.0
8.1 9.3 10.7 9.3 10.3 8.5 7.1 11.6 6.5 9.4
9.3 8.7 11.3 8.0 12.2 10.3 6.6 12.6 5.8 6.5
11.3 11.4 12.6 11.9 13.1 11.5 10.5 15.7 8.8 10.2
12.5 11.0 12.8 10.1 15.0 9.3 8.9 12.2 9.8 11.3
8.6 8.8 9.7 9.8 10.6 9.9 8.5 10.5 8.3 6.9
Pounds of laying feed equivalent in value to one dozen eggs. (ERS-USDA)
1
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Hens and Pullets of Laying Age (Layers) in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
299,261 305,011 311,593 322,137 328,307 332,107 339,423 340,752 338,272 347,273
298,320 303,449 312,111 322,382 328,767 335,449 338,465 341,019 338,774 348,412
298,348 304,276 314,322 323,161 330,876 336,131 337,478 340,080 340,479 349,117
298,029 303,997 313,833 322,162 330,807 337,472 337,376 339,645 342,879 345,221
295,123 302,766 309,945 320,783 327,597 336,755 336,131 336,678 342,305 342,817
293,740 300,692 309,235 320,211 325,012 333,522 335,547 335,611 343,233 342,813
294,044 299,007 309,049 320,672 324,843 332,274 335,236 333,925 342,392 340,115
296,612 298,844 308,747 318,944 326,240 332,148 335,717 334,381 342,522 340,157
296,911 300,138 309,706 321,349 325,212 333,417 336,561 334,248 343,405 341,596
298,433 305,664 312,807 323,365 327,219 336,573 337,923 334,103 344,794 343,019
299,910 307,146 316,840 327,135 329,092 337,549 338,350 336,528 345,267 344,908
303,754 312,137 321,718 329,320 332,410 338,625 339,827 339,989 344,278 347,341
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
89
EGGS Eggs Laid Per Hundred Layers in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Number of Eggs
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2,141 2,161 2,169 2,165 2,178 2,165 2,143 2,168 2,182 2,192
1,996 1,943 1,950 1,946 2,016 1,943 1,947 1,957 2,032 1,986
2,178 2,176 2,187 2,185 2,186 2,178 2,198 2,184 2,209 2,225
2,105 2,093 2,117 2,110 2,130 2,106 2,110 2,125 2,148 2,146
2,153 2,156 2,153 2,166 2,177 2,160 2,173 2,180 2,192 2,205
2,099 2,093 2,088 2,104 2,093 2,100 2,125 2,122 2,126 2,151
2,180 2,155 2,175 2,158 2,169 2,166 2,190 2,215 2,207 2,230
2,172 2,165 2,165 2,177 2,181 2,170 2,188 2,203 2,198 2,219
2,094 2,096 2,082 2,128 2,101 2,103 2,119 2,128 2,134 2,155
2,171 2,172 2,157 2,192 2,173 2,180 2,192 2,218 2,220 2,239
2,124 2,122 2,109 2,138 2,125 2,130 2,139 2,166 2,170 2,176
2,199 2,193 2,190 2,214 2,193 2,188 2,189 2,223 2,234 2,235
2,134 2,127 2,129 2,140 2,144 2,132 2,143 2,157 2,171 2,180
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Egg-Type Chicks Hatched by Commercial Hatcheries in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
31,580 33,752 37,168 35,242 34,181 36,728 35,655 33,521 35,155 37,936
34,608 35,655 34,597 36,367 34,659 37,836 34,473 30,474 31,923 33,932
36,890 37,347 40,604 41,172 38,877 41,015 36,985 36,775 37,545 41,824
35,740 38,842 39,057 42,285 36,653 42,789 38,096 37,820 37,466 38,267
38,028 39,020 39,206 40,726 41,185 42,655 38,760 37,630 38,347 37,449
33,017 36,796 39,323 41,439 37,268 40,822 35,144 36,602 37,508 34,537
31,920 33,772 35,576 34,275 33,240 38,651 35,581 35,578 34,919 35,310
31,782 33,061 33,398 35,518 34,328 34,987 35,689 33,199 36,854 38,953
31,930 37,118 37,959 39,287 36,325 37,140 35,742 35,763 36,631 33,788
32,319 35,262 34,667 39,044 36,080 35,825 32,157 34,812 34,866 35,367
30,947 28,122 31,217 32,802 32,438 32,355 31,154 30,241 38,758 32,752
32,879 35,796 35,501 33,564 35,178 31,870 32,113 33,588 37,332 36,224
401,640 424,543 438,273 451,721 430,412 452,673 421,549 416,003 437,304 436,339
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of Froz en Eggs in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
13.8 10.2 9.7 11.0 10.1 15.0 13.7 13.5 18.0 19.1
15.6 11.0 12.0 11.0 17.6 16.9 13.1 15.3 21.3 18.6
16.2 11.5 12.3 10.8 14.8 15.5 13.9 17.1 21.1 17.9
12.4 8.5 10.4 9.2 14.0 14.6 11.7 17.0 19.2 18.5
11.5 8.5 9.2 9.4 12.8 15.9 10.2 15.7 20.9 18.9
11.4 8.2 12.9 9.7 13.5 15.8 11.1 17.7 20.6 17.7
11.7 8.3 10.2 11.3 14.1 14.4 12.7 18.0 18.3 19.7
13.5 8.9 11.8 11.1 14.4 16.7 12.9 18.6 16.7 19.7
15.0 11.1 9.0 8.8 14.9 17.8 13.2 18.0 17.3 19.9
14.9 10.8 8.2 9.5 14.4 17.7 13.2 16.6 18.7 18.8
12.6 10.9 9.0 9.0 16.6 15.5 13.1 16.9 17.9 17.6
10.4 10.3 9.3 8.5 15.4 13.9 11.2 14.9 17.3 17.6
Preliminary. 2 Converted on basis 39.5 pounds frozen eggs equals 1 case. Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
1
90
In Millions of Pounds2
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of
Electric Power the utility transmission systems of Pennsylvania Electric Co. and the Potomac Electric Co. The contract is priced in dollars and cents per megawatt hours. Supply – US electricity production in 2005 (through July, annualized) rose +1.2% yr/yr to 2.525 trillion kilowatthours. That was well below the record high of 3.212 trillion kilowatt-hours in 1998 and indicated that recent electricity production has been reduced by more efficient production and distribution systems, and to some extent by electricity conservation by business and residential consumers. US electricity generation in 2003 (latest data available) required the use of 1.870 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (-17.2% yr/ yr), 786 million short tons of coal (+2.4% yr/yr), and 107 million barrels of fuel oil (+21.0% yr/yr). In terms of kilowatt-hours, coal is the most widely used source of electricity production, accounting for 59% of US electricity production in 2001 (latest data available) , followed by nuclear (20%), natural gas (10%), hydro (7%), and fuel oil (3%). Alternative sources of fuel for electricity generation that are gaining favor include biomass, solar, wind, and fuel cells. Demand – Residential use of electricity accounts for the largest single category of electricity demand with usage of 1.202 trillion kilowatt hours in 2001 (latest data available) accounting for 36% of overall usage. Business users together use more electricity than residential users, but business users are broken into the categories of commercial with 32% of usage and industrial with 29% of usage.
The modern electric utility industry began in the 1800s. In 1807, Humphry Davy constructed a practical battery and demonstrated both incandescent and arc light. In 1831, Michael Faraday built the first electric generator proving that rotary mechanical power could be converted into electric power. In 1879, Thomas Edison perfected a practical incandescent light bulb. The electric utility industry evolved from gas and electric carbon-arc commercial and street lighting systems. In 1882, in New York City, Thomas Edison’s Pearl Street electricity generating station established the industry by displaying the four key elements of a modern electric utility system: reliable central generation, efficient distribution, successful end use, and a competitive price. Electricity is measured in units called watts and watthours. Electricity must be used shortly after it is generated and cannot be stored to any significant degree. That means the power utilities must match the level of electricity generation to the level of demand in order to avoid wasteful over-production. The power industry has been deregulated to some degree in the past decade and now major utility companies sell power back and forth across major national grids in order to meet supply and demand needs. The quick changes in the supply-demand situation means that the price of electricity can be volatile. Electricity futures trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The futures contract is a financially settled contract, which is priced based on electricity prices in the PJM western hub at 111 delivery points, mainly on
World Electricity Production (Monthly Average)
In Millions of Kilowatt Hours
Year
Australia
Canada
China
Germany
India
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Russia
South Africa
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052
14,806 15,256 14,974 15,399 15,712 15,548 15,646 15,564 16,095 16,278
46,307 47,929 54,393 55,809 58,337 56,576 57,873 56,294 56,844 49,301
90,109 94,539 97,183 100,345 109,426 118,439 133,513 153,229 176,169 195,269
46,277 45,961 46,367 45,820 46,417 47,107 47,211 49,060 44,439 47,781
32,991 35,146 37,379 40,148 41,725 42,434 44,141 52,773 48,968 50,579
20,340 20,898 21,659 22,136 22,986 23,242 23,638 24,386 24,975
84,113 86,676 76,763 76,755 78,391 77,742 77,139 76,661 71,574 77,422
17,125 18,704 17,942 19,944 22,200 23,768 25,500 26,856 28,472 29,858
70,600 69,511 68,930 70,611 73,117 74,031 74,078 76,158 77,562 76,306
16,096 16,108 17,119 16,961 17,557 17,508 18,142 17,534 20,238 19,223
15,166 14,834 14,402 14,342 14,287 14,414 14,477 15,030 15,180 15,019
27,191 27,012 27,928 28,095 28,484 29,415 29,220 35,006 34,924 35,871
287,250 291,185 301,489 308,572 316,845 311,387 321,538 307,250 316,000 314,833
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: United Nations
In stalled C ap acity, C ap ab ility & P eak L o ad o f th e U .S . E lectric U tility In d u stry
In Millions of Kilowatt Hours
----------------------------------- In stalled Gen eratin g C ap acity o n D ecemb er 31 -----------------------------------
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 1
Total Electri c Uti li ty Industry
735.1 740.0 741.7 744.7 746.0 750.5 756.5 759.9 728.3 678.0
P reliminary.
Capaci ty Capa- Non-Co- Margi n ---------------------- Typ e o f Ow n ersh ip ---------------------Power bi li ty i nci dent Non-CoDi stri cts, at Wi nter Muni cInternal Wi nter i nci dent State ipal Nuclear Com- Investor Cooper- Subtotal Peak Peak Peak ati ve Gov't Uti li ti es Federal Projects Power busti on Owned Load Load (%) Load
----------- Typ e o f P rime Mo ver ----Gas, Turbi ne Hydro & Steam
87.2 88.7 89.7 90.2 90.3 91.1 91.0 92.5 91.2 89.8
531.1 534.1 534.5 536.9 537.9 541.6 546.6 549.7 522.1 476.3
108.0 108.4 107.9 107.8 107.9 107.9 109.0 107.6 104.8 102.3
8.7 8.8 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.2 9.6
568.8 573.0 572.9 575.2 574.8 578.7 582.2 582.5 531.3 483.7
26.3 26.5 26.0 26.1 26.4 27.1 27.2 28.0 32.5 34.6
139.9 140.5 142.7 143.4 144.7 144.8 147.1 149.4 164.5 159.6
40.1 40.4 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 43.0 43.8 50.5 50.2
65.4 65.6 66.1 66.1 66.3 65.9 67.2 68.9 68.7 68.7
34.4 34.5 35.0 35.5 36.4 36.6 36.9 36.7 45.3 40.7
696.8 703.2 707.8 712.0 715.1 727.7 740.5 743.8 835.3 848.9
484.0 485.4 493.0 521.7 518.3 544.7 545.1 560.2 652.4 656.3
20.4 20.2 21.1 17.1 16.7 13.2 14.9 13.4 12.0 10.3
Total Electri c Annual Uti li ty Peak Load Industry Gen- Factor (%) erati on
2,808.2 2,825.0 2,797.2 2,882.5 2,910.7 2,994.5 3,073.1 3,119.1 3,212.2 3,173.7
60.4 60.9 61.1 61.0 61.2 59.8 61.0 61.3 62.0 61.2
S ource: E dison E lect ric I nst it ut e (E E I )
91
ELECTRIC POWER Available Electricity and Energy Sales in the United States ------------------------------------- Net Generation ----------------------------------------------------------- Electric Utility Industry ------------------------
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
Total2
Hydro
Natural Gas
2,995 3,077 3,123 3,212 3,174 3,015 2,630 2,549 2,462 2,505
310.8 347.2 356.5 323.3 319.5 275.6 217.0 264.3 275.8 268.4
307.3 262.7 283.6 309.2 296.4 290.7 264.4 229.6 187.0 199.7
C oal
Fuel Oil
Nu- Other clear Source3
1,653 60.8 673.4 1,737 67.3 674.7 1,788 77.8 628.6 1,807 110.2 673.7 1,768 86.9 725.0 1,697 72.2 705.4 1,560 78.9 534.2 1,515 59.1 507.4 1,500 69.9 458.8 1,514 73.7 475.7
6.4 7.2 7.5 7.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 3.6 3.9 4.1
Total
3,353 3,444 3,492 3,620 3,695 3,802 3,737 3,858 3,883 3,971
In Billions of Kilowatt Hours
------------------------------ Sales to Ultimate Customers -----------------------------Rail Street & Other InterResiways den- depart- Com- Indust- Highway Public & RailTotal Auth. roads rial Lighting tial mental mercial Million $ Total
207,717 212,609 215,334 219,848 219,896 233,163 247,325 250,189 258,861 270,456
3,013 3,101 3,146 3,264 3,312 3,421 3,382 3,466 3,489 3,548
1,043 1,083 1,076 1,130 1,145 1,192 1,201 1,265 1,274 1,294
2.1 862.7 2.5 887.4 2.6 928.6 4 979.4 4 1,002.0 4 1,055.2 4 1,088.0 4 1,104.7 4 1,197.2 4 1,229.0
1,013 1,034 1,037 1,051 1,058 1,064 985 990 1,012 1,019
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes internal combustion. 3 I ncludes electricity produced from geothermal, wood, waste, wind, solar, etc. NA = Not available. Source: Edison Electric I nstitute (EEI )
1
Electric Pow er Production by Electric Utilities in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
17.9 69.9 18.0 70.3 19.7 75.6 16.3 87.2 15.9 107.0 4 109.5 4 108.4 4 105.8 4 NA 4 NA 4
5.5 5.3 5.3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
I ncluded in Other.
In Millions of Kilowatt Hours
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
268,713 273,410 265,435 275,230 265,991 236,467 215,684 217,338 221,782 218,608
245,388 233,907 235,340 239,825 237,324 199,802 187,929 189,944 198,675 190,913
247,989 244,659 256,575 258,678 241,397 211,942 200,833 193,305 193,763 202,018
226,423 230,512 232,457 238,969 227,031 197,499 194,038 181,914 182,744 183,914
251,570 243,143 265,077 255,266 253,890 215,508 208,436 200,634 207,224 202,979
268,644 266,588 291,029 281,233 268,128 233,622 227,940 212,297 219,767 227,584
289,329 304,628 317,521 318,745 279,421 253,400 248,962 234,888 235,266 246,020
290,458 294,557 312,538 307,835 286,682 258,901 241,449 234,675 227,785 244,979
250,672 266,649 279,198 261,347 245,137 214,236 215,408 201,966 209,507 217,364
240,674 253,267 251,380 243,212 228,389 204,307 201,705 192,198 197,320 199,793
241,077 243,726 239,089 235,129 226,765 192,518 194,205 189,362 191,813 193,888
258,138 267,477 266,532 258,205 255,229 211,742 212,868 213,758 219,585
3,077,442 3,122,523 3,212,171 3,173,674 3,015,383 2,629,946 2,549,457 2,462,281 2,505,231 2,539,702
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Use of Fuels for Electric Generation in the United States ----- Consumption of Fuell -----
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20041
C oal (Thousand Short Tons)
Fuel Oil (Thousand Barels)2
Gas (Million Cubic Feet)
829,007 874,681 900,361 910,867 894,120 859,335 806,269 767,803 757,384 771,269
102,150 113,274 125,146 178,614 143,830 120,129 126,367 88,595 105,319 103,095
3,196,507 2,732,107 2,968,453 3,258,054 3,113,419 3,043,094 2,686,287 2,259,684 1,763,764 1,787,897
Total Fuel i n C oal Equivalent3 (Thousand Short Tons)
1,039,174 1,063,755 1,103,037 1,147,317 1,113,614
Average C o st o f Net C o st o f FossilGeneration Pounds of Fuel Per fuel at by Fuels4 C oal P er Elec. Util. Kiliowatthour (Million Kilowatthour (Cents) (Pounds) Cents/MBTU Kilowatthour)
2,021,064 2,066,666 2,148,756 2,226,860 2,150,989
1.003 1.007 1.005 .996 1.012
145.3 151.9 152.2 143.8 144.1 173.8 173.0 151.5
Preliminary. 2 42-gallon barrels. 3 Coal equivalents are calculated on the basis of Btu instead of generation data. Source: Edison Electric I nstitute (EEI )
1
92
1.48 1.55 1.53 1.49 1.48
4
Heat Rate BTU Per kilowatthour
C o st P e r Million BTU Consumed (Cents)
10,173 10,176 10,081 10,360 10,301
145.2 151.9 152.2 143.8 144.1
Excludes wood & waste fuels.
Fertilizer Fertilizer is a natural or synthetic chemical substance, or mixture, that enriches soil to promote plant growth. The three primary nutrients that fertilizers provide are nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus. In ancient times, and still today, many commonly used fertilizers contain one or more of the three primary ingredients: manure (containing nitrogen), bones (containing small amounts of nitrogen and large quantities of phosphorus), and wood ash (containing potassium).
World production of phosphate rock, basic slag and guano in 2004 rose +2.9% yr/yr to a 6-year high of 141.000 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of phosphate rock in 2004 were the US with 25% of world production, Morocco (19%), China (18%), and Russia (8%). US production in 2004 rose +2.3% y/y to 35.800 million metric tons, which was only 12% above the record low of 31.900 million in 2001. World production of marketable potash rose by +1.8% yr/yr in 2004 to a 15-year high of 28.900 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of potash in 2004 were Canada with 32% of world production, Russia (17%), Belarus (15%), and Germany (12%). US production of potash in 2004 rose +18.2% yr/yr to a 4-year high of 1.300 million metric tons.
At least fourteen different nutrients have been found essential for crops. These include three organic nutrients (carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen, which are taken directly from air and water), three primary chemical nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), and three secondary chemical nutrients (magnesium, calcium, and sulfur). The others are micronutrients or trace elements and include iron, manganese, copper, zinc, boron, and molybdenum.
Demand – US consumption of nitrogen in 2004 rose +9.1% yr/yr to 12.000 million metric tons, which was a 4year high. US consumption of phosphate rock in 2004 rose +0.5% to 39.000 million metric tons from the 17-year low of 35.300 million metric tons in 2001. US consumption of potash in 2004 rose 11.1% yr/yr to 6.000 million metric tons which is a 6-year high.
Prices – The average price of ammonia, a key source of ingredients for fertilizers, rose by 11.8% yr/yr in 2004 to a new record high of $274 per metric ton. The average price of phosphate rock in the US in 2004 rose by 3.0% yr/yr to $27.76 per metric ton. The average price of potash in the US in 2004 rose by +5.9% yr/yr to a record high of $180.00 per metric ton.
Trade – US imports of nitrogen in 2004 rose +3.1% to 5.900 million metric tons and the US relied on imports for 38% of consumption. US imports of phosphate rock in 2004 rose +4.2% yr/yr to 2.500 million metric tons, but remained below the 2002 record high of 2.700 million metric tons. US imports of potash rose +4.2% to 4.920 million metric tons in 2002, and imports accounted for 70% of US consumption.
Supply – World production of nitrogen (as contained in ammonia) in 2004 rose by +6.4% yr/yr to a new record high of 117.000 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of nitrogen in 2004 were China with 30% of world production, Russia (8.4%), and the US (7.6%). US nitrogen production in 2004 rose +7.6% to 8.850 million metric tons.
World Production of Ammonia Year
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Ja p a n
Mexico
Netherlands
Poland
Russia
United States
World Total
3,840 4,081 3,900 4,135 4,130 3,439 3,700 3,662 4,107
25,200 24,700 25,800 28,300 27,700 28,200 30,200 31,500 34,800
1,570 1,757 1,570 1,580 1,620 1,380 1,172 1,153 1,120
2,485 2,471 2,512 2,406 2,473 2,522 2,623 2,803 2,741
8,549 9,328 10,240 10,376 10,148 10,081 9,827 10,048 10,718
3,647 3,770 3,600 3,450 3,620 3,655 4,200 4,250 4,120
1,490 1,509 1,389 1,385 1,410 1,318 1,188 1,054 1,090
2,054 1,448 1,449 1,003 701 548 437 440 568
2,652 2,478 2,350 2,430 2,540 1,990 2,050 1,750 1,970
1,713 1,824 1,683 1,474 1,862 1,735 1,311 1,906 1,976
7,900 7,150 6,500 7,633 8,735 8,690 8,600 9,100 9,800
13,400 13,300 13,800 12,900 11,800 9,120 10,300 8,600 8,850
105,000 103,000 104,000 107,000 108,000 105,000 109,000 110,000 117,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons of Contained Nitrogen
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Nitrogen3 (Ammonia) in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons
- Stocks, Dec. 31-
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
Net Import Nitrogen5 Reliance Fixed Ammonia Conas a % of --- Production3 (Fixed) --Nitrogen --- Compounds --Apparent NonImports4 Com- sumption ConConsumption Fertilizer fertilizer Total (Fixed) Exports Produced sumption Ammonia pounds (Apparent)
16 19 21 21 31 29 39 38
11,400 11,800 11,400 10,300 8,190 9,300 7,590 8,180
1,900 1,950 1,550 1,510 929 1,030 1,020 672
13,300 13,800 12,900 11,800 9,120 10,300 8,600 8,850
3,530 3,460 3,890 3,880 4,550 4,670 5,720 5,900
395 614 562 662 647 437 400 381
11,441 11,712 11,303 10,272 7,852 9,937 9,122 9,110
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Anhydrous ammonia, synthetic. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
4
11,300 11,300 11,500 12,500 10,600 11,000 11,000 12,000
1,530 1,050 996 1,120 261 286 197 274
For consumption.
5
2,220 1,270 1,240 1,400 1,340 1,140 476 644
15,800 17,100 16,300 14,900 13,200 14,500 14,000 14,300
-- Average Price ($ Per Tonne) -------- Urea FOB Gulf6 C o a st
102-103 82-85 107-110 158-161 104-108 128-132 192-195 225-230
------- Ammonium Ammonia FOB FOB Nitrate: Corn FOB Corn Gulf Belt Belt C o a st
125-135 110-125 115-125 175-180 130-135 150-160 215-225 255-270
Major downstream nitrogen compounds.
122-125 110-115 110-115 140-150 120-130 120-130 190-195 195-210 6
173 121 109 169 183 137 245 274
Granular.
93
FERTILIZER World Production of Phosphate Rock, Basic Slag & Guano Brazil
China
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Morocco
Russia
Senegal
Syria
Togo
Tunisia
United States
World Total
3,888 3,823 4,276 4,421 4,344 4,725 4,685 5,084 5,790 5,400
19,300 21,000 24,500 25,000 20,000 19,400 21,000 23,000 25,200 25,500
765 808 1,067 1,076 1,018 1,096 972 1,550 2,183 2,219
4,063 3,839 4,047 4,067 4,128 4,110 3,511 3,476 3,208 2,947
4,984 5,355 5,896 5,925 6,014 5,526 5,843 7,179 6,763 6,223
20,684 20,855 23,084 23,587 22,163 21,463 21,983 23,041 22,877 26,700
9,000 8,300 9,800 10,100 11,400 11,100 10,500 10,700 11,000 11,000
1,500 1,340 1,565 1,478 1,814 1,738 1,708 1,545 1,472 1,600
1,551 2,189 2,392 2,496 2,084 2,166 2,043 2,483 2,414 2,883
2,570 2,731 2,631 2,250 1,600 1,370 1,067 1,271 1,471 1,115
7,241 7,167 6,941 7,901 8,006 8,339 8,144 7,735 7,890 8,050
43,500 45,400 45,900 44,200 40,600 38,600 31,900 36,100 35,000 35,800
131,000 135,000 143,000 144,000 134,000 132,000 126,000 135,000 137,000 141,000
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Phosphate Rock in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Mine Production
Marketable Production
165,000 179,000 166,000 170,000 161,000 163,000 130,000 154,000 153,000 146,000
43,500 45,400 45,900 44,200 40,600 38,600 31,900 36,100 35,000 35,800
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Imports Value F or Million Dollars Consumption
947 1,060 1,080 1,130 1,240 932 856 993 946 995
1,800 1,800 1,830 1,760 2,170 1,930 2,500 2,700 2,400 2,500
Exports
Apparent Consumption
Stocks, D e c. 3 1 (Producer)
2,760 1,570 335 378 272 299 9 62 64 ÑÑ
42,700 43,700 43,600 45,000 43,500 39,000 35,300 37,400 38,800 39,000
5,710 6,390 7,910 7,920 6,920 8,170 7,510 8,860 7,540 7,220
28.35 35.82 34.80 42.70 41.96 40.38 W W W W
21.75 23.40 24.50 25.87 31.49 24.29 26.81 27.69 26.95 27.76
Canada
China
France
Germany
Israel
Jordan
Russia
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
3,211 2,716 3,247 3,451 4,553 3,786 3,700 3,800 4,230 4,300
215 243 280 326 348 352 319 337 337 340
9,066 8,120 8,989 9,201 8,475 9,202 8,237 8,361 9,131 9,150
80 110 115 120 260 380 385 450 500 550
799 751 725 453 345 320 244 130
3,278 3,332 3,423 3,582 3,543 3,407 3,550 3,450 3,600 3,500
1,330 1,500 1,488 1,668 1,700 1,750 1,770 1,920 1,960 2,060
1,075 1,080 850 916 1,080 1,160 1,180 1,170 1,230 1,230
2,800 2,620 3,400 3,500 4,200 3,700 4,300 4,400 4,740 5,000
760 717 639 597 656 653 471 407 510 500
582 618 565 608 495 600 532 540 620 600
1,480 1,390 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,300
24,800 23,300 25,200 26,000 27,300 27,000 26,400 26,600 28,400 28,900
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Net Import Reliance as a % of Consumption
Production
75 77 80 80 80 70 80 80 80 70
1,480 1,390 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,300
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 Preliminary.
94
21.29 22.90 24.40 25.46 30.56 24.14 26.82 27.69 26.95 27.76
In Thousands of Metric Tons (K2O Equivalent)
Salient Statistics of Potash in the United States
1
21.75 23.40 24.50 25.87 31.49 24.29 26.82 27.47 27.01 27.79
Brazil
Preliminary.
Year
Avg. Price of Florida & N. Carolina Price - $ Avg. Per Metric Ton - $/Tonne - FOB Mine (-60% to +74% ) (FOB Mine) Domestic Export Average
Belarus
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
World Production of Marketable Potash Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
2
Estimate.
3
In Thousands of Metric Tons (K2O Equivalent)
Sales by Producers
Value Million Dollars
Imports F or Consumption
Exports
Apparent Consumption
1,400 1,430 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,300
284.0 299.0 320.0 330.0 280.0 290.0 260.0 280.0 280.0 340.0
4,820 4,940 5,490 4,780 4,470 4,600 4,540 4,620 4,720 4,920
409 481 466 477 459 367 366 371 329 235
5,820 5,890 6,500 5,600 5,100 5,600 5,300 5,300 5,400 6,000
Unit of K2O, standard 60% muriate F.O.B. mine.
----- $ Per Ton ----Producer Avg. Value Avg. Value of Avg. Price3 Stocks Per Ton of Dec. 31 Product ($) K2O Equiv. $ Per Tonne
312 265 200 300 300
98.58 101.08 110.00 115.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 125.00
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
202.43 208.57 230.00 250.00 230.00 230.00 230.00 230.00 230.00 260.00
137.99 134.07 138.00 145.00 150.00 157.50 165.00 155.00 170.00 200.00
Fish from 19.026 billion pounds in 2002. The US domestic catch in 2003 rose by +1.1% to 9.505, and comprised 48% of US supply (down from 49% in 2002). Of the US domestic catch in 2003, 67% of the catch was finfish for human consumption, 12% was shellfish for human consumption, and 21% of the catch was a variety of fish for industrial use. The principal species of US fishery landings in 2003 were Pollock (with 3.373 billion pounds landed), Menhaden (1.599 billion pounds), Pacific Salmon (674 million pounds), Flounder (365 million pounds), and Sea Herring (286 million pounds). More than 30% of the fish harvested are processed directly into fishmeal and fish oil. Fishmeal is used primarily in animal feed. Fish oil is used in both animal feed and human food products. World fishmeal production in the 2003/ 04 marketing year rose by 1.0% to 6.140 million metric tons. World production of fish oil in 2003 rose +1.3% to 985,000 metric tons. Peru and Chile are the world’s largest producers of fishmeal and fish oil. Trade – US imports of fishery products in 2003 rose 7.4% yr/yr to a 10-year high of 10.343 billion pounds, comprising 52.1% of total US supply.
Fish are the primary source of protein for a large portion of the world’s population. The worldwide yearly harvest of all sea fish (including aquaculture) is between 85 and 130 million metric tons. There are approximately 20,000 species of fish, of which 9,000 are regularly caught. Only 22 fish species are harvested in large amounts. Ground-fish, which are fish that live near or on the ocean floor, account for about 10% of the world’s fishery harvest, and include cod, haddock, pollock, flounder, halibut and sole. Large pelagic fish such as tuna, swordfish, marlin, and mahi-mahi, account for about 5% of world harvest. The fish eaten most often in the United States is canned tuna. Rising global demand for fish has increased the pressure to harvest more fish to the point where all 17 of the world’s major fishing areas have either reached or exceeded their limits. Atlantic stocks of cod, haddock and blue-fin tuna are all seriously depleted, while in the Pacific, anchovies, salmon and halibut are all over-fished. Aquaculture, or fish farming, reduces pressure on wild stocks and now accounts for nearly 20% of world harvest. Supply – The US supply of fishery products rose +4.3% to 19.848 billion pounds in 2003 (the latest reporting year)
Fishery Products -- Supply in the United States
In Millions of Pounds2
---------------------- Domestic Catch ----------------------
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
Grand - For Human Food Total Finfish Shellfish3
17,133 16,898 17,378 17,339 18,119 19,028 19,848
10,580 10,837 10,831 11,006 11,330 11,770 12,614
3,160 3,338 3,630 3,734 3,977 4,237 4,571
F or Industrial Use4
Total
3,393 2,723 2,916 2,599 2,812 3,022 2,663
9,843 9,194 9,339 9,068 9,492 9,397 9,505
------------------------------ Imports ------------------------------
F or % of Grand - For Human Food - Industrial Use4 Total Finfish Shellfish3
57.5 54.4 53.7 52.3 52.4 49.4 47.9
5,969 5,935 5,490 5,637 6,162 6,013 6,385
1,277 1,238 1,341 1,275 1,152 1,192 1,134
Total
F or Industrial Use4
% of Grand - For Human Food Total Finfish Shellfish3
2,598 7,290 2,021 7,704 2,507 8,039 2,157 8,271 2,178 8,627 2,193 9,631 1,986 10,343
42.5 45.6 46.3 47.7 47.6 50.6 52.1
4,612 4,901 5,341 5,369 5,168 5,757 6,229
1,883 2,100 2,289 2,459 2,825 3,045 3,437
795 702 409 442 634 829 677
Preliminary. 2 Live weight, except percent. 3 For univalue and bivalues mollusks (conchs, clams, oysters, scallops, etc.) the weight of meats, excluding the shell is reported. 4 Fish meal and sea herring. Source: Fisheries Statistics Division, U.S. Department of Commerce
1
Fisheries -- Landings of Principal Species in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
----------------------------------------------------------- Fish ------------------------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------- Shelfish ---------------------------------Year
C od, Atlantic Flounder
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
29 25 21 25 33 29 24
Preliminary.
Halibut
Herring, S ea
Manhaden
Pollock
Salmon, Pacific
Tuna
Whiting
Clams (Meats)
70 73 80 75 78 82 80
348 272 267 235 300 214 286
2,028 1,706 1,989 1,760 1,741 1,751 1,599
2,522 2,729 2,336 2,616 3,188 3,349 3,373
568 644 815 629 723 567 674
83 85 58 51 52 49 62
34 33 31 27 28 18 19
114 108 112 118 123 130 128
566 391 331 413 352 373 365
Lobsters Oysters Scallops Crabs (American) ------ (Meats) ------ Shrimp
430 553 458 299 272 308 339
84 80 87 83 74 82 72
40 34 27 41 33 34 37
15 13 27 33 47 53 56
290 278 304 332 324 317 314
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Fisheries: Quantity & Value of Domestic Catch & Consumption & World Fish Oil Production
Year
F or F or ----------------------------------- Disposition ----------------------------------Industrial Human Fresh & For Meal, Products F ood Frozen Canned Cured Oil, Etc. Total ------------------------------------------------ Millions of Pounds ------------------------------------------------
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
Preliminary.
6,873 6,870 6,416 6,657 7,085 6,826 7,264 2
648 516 712 530 536 652 498
108 129 133 119 123 117 119
2,213 1,679 2,078 1,763 1,748 1,802 1,624
Crop years on a marketing year basis.
9,842 9,194 9,339 9,069 9,492 9,397 9,505 3
7,244 7,173 6,832 6,912 7,314 7,205 7,519
At the Dock Prices.
2,598 2,021 2,507 2,157 2,178 2,192 1,986
Ex-vessel Value3
F i sh Per Capita Average Price Cunsumption
- Million $ - - Cents/Lb. -
3,448 3,128 3,467 3,550 3,228 3,092 3,342
35.0 34.0 37.1 39.1 34.0 32.9 35.2
World2 Fish Oil Production
- Pounds - - 1,000 Tons -
NA NA NA NA NA NA
1,214 886 1,413 1,428 1,132 942 979
Source: Fisheries Statistics Division, U.S. Department of Commerce
95
FISH Imports of Seafood Products into the United States ------------------- Fresh -------------------
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
Atlantic Salmon
Pacific Salmon2
190,131 217,948 257,218 316,837 356,164 349,474 324,358 352,778
38,486 26,467 19,908 17,472 23,210 22,462 22,387 22,522
In Thousands of Pounds
----------------- Froz en -----------------
Shrimp
Fresh & Frozen Trout
Atlantic Salmon
Pacific Salmon2
5,670 5,259 7,083 7,382 9,887 9,023 8,573 7,190
19,092 24,222 32,089 41,176 56,883 64,999 69,894 70,000
17,134 16,596 12,866 10,515 18,317 26,658 40,767 42,296
Canned & Prepared Shrimp Salmon3
599,466 617,089 621,231 714,706 730,002 878,124 871,638 871,902
3,430 5,627 8,893 11,298 16,378 25,177 24,418 25,421
Fresh & Prepared Shrimp4
Oysters5
Mussels6
Clams7
Tilapia8
95,942 114,191 139,526 167,877 216,439 234,084 269,502 293,970
18,049 18,325 20,810 18,438 19,084 22,257 23,121 22,932
34,099 34,969 43,141 39,973 45,695 43,236 50,855 51,669
6,541 7,537 8,074 8,007 7,457 8,752 7,875 6,708
61,336 82,837 89,218 124,202 148,122 198,957 248,986 297,331
Preliminary. 2 Also contains salmon with no specific species noted. 3 I ncludes smoked and cured salmon. 4 Shrimp, canned, breaded, or prepared. Oysters fresh or prepared. 6 Mussels fresh or prepared. 7 Clams, fresh or prepared. 8 Tilapia, frozen whole fish plus fresh and frozen fillets. Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
1
5
Exports of Seafood Products into the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1 5
Fresh & Frozen Trout
------------------- Fresh ------------------Atlantic Pacific Salmon Salmon2 Shrimp
7,978 10,717 15,942 18,417 8,456 11,337 13,606 10,949
34,645 40,683 38,750 20,651 29,672 38,902 33,863 18,537
In Thousands of Pounds
------------------- Froz en ------------------Atlantic Pacific Salmon Salmon2 Shrimp
1,453 1,697 1,816 1,077 1,163 2,592 1,118 945
243 182 299 84 84 99 197 379
105,869 157,278 161,515 167,933 132,646 150,766 172,476 260,159
11,323 13,607 15,162 13,905 13,890 16,466 12,711 9,106
Canned & Prepared Salmon3
Fresh & Prepared Shrimp4
Oysters5
Mussels6
Clams7
77,201 113,556 81,098 109,109 95,955 94,338 117,570 114,273
13,882 13,153 14,229 13,640 13,148 14,307 12,719 10,689
2,496 2,727 3,229 3,915 3,896 5,827 7,505 7,797
1,347 1,861 1,513 1,485 1,178 1,337 911 1,035
5,375 5,240 3,413 3,939 3,861 4,003 5,761 4,384
Preliminary. 2 Also contains salmon with no specific species noted. 3 I ncludes smoked and cured salmon. 4 Shrimp, canned, breaded, or prepared. Oysters fresh or prepared. 6 Mussels fresh or prepared. 7 Clams, fresh or prepared. Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
World Production of Fish Meal Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Chile
Spain
Denmark
EU-12
FSU-12
Iceland
Ja p a n
Norway
Peru
South Africa
Thailand
United States
World Total
708.5 823.4 890.0 731.0 766.0 818.1 850.7 880.0
92.8 86.1 110.8 116.6 92.5 92.0 93.0 96.0
317.2 319.1 314.2 311.9 308.2 238.9 255.9 270.0
544.7 542.7 582.6 582.8 557.7 494.1 520.5 544.6
206.7 147.1 132.3 102.8 72.2 75.3 80.3 85.3
221.6 240.6 281.2 282.0 308.3 273.8 226.5 245.0
383.4 388.5 390.0 350.0 323.0 326.0 323.0 319.0
296.7 352.6 315.0 238.8 222.9 193.5 224.2 214.0
697.2 1,597.4 2,449.4 2,144.2 1,688.1 1,344.6 1,862.2 1,855.0
89.3 76.2 113.7 97.8 115.7 131.8 126.3 110.0
403.8 398.0 392.4 385.9 390.9 400.0 420.0 423.0
339.9 389.9 346.8 337.1 349.8 322.4 294.7 320.0
5,218.4 6,341.6 7,383.5 6,751.9 6,370.7 6,046.7 6,608.2 6,700.0
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
World Production of Fish Oil Year
Canada
Chile
China
Denmark
Iceland
Ja p a n
Norway
Peru
South Africa
FSU-12
United States
World Total
Fish Oil CIF4
4.5 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2
91.4 176.8 166.0 142.9 140.2 134.0 133.0 135.0
7.2 28.8 20.6 17.6 22.7 30.0 31.5 32.6
126.7 135.2 139.7 121.3 108.7 104.9 113.0 115.0
95.1 92.1 98.0 98.0 84.6 122.0 74.2 91.8
70.7 72.8 69.7 65.8 64.7 65.6 68.1 67.0
89.0 99.2 98.3 66.4 61.2 49.2 59.0 56.0
86.3 376.5 699.4 400.8 162.2 208.0 263.2 290.0
7.8 6.8 8.9 7.9 10.0 9.0 9.2 9.0
14.3 14.5 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.6 9.2
101.3 141.6 81.3 123.3 103.9 89.6 81.7 80.0
825.5 1,277.3 1,523.4 1,212.8 924.6 987.7 1,017.8 1,068.3
722 408 268 375 593 560 648 718
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
4
Any origin, N.W. Europe.
NA = Not available.
Source: The Oil World
Monthly Production of Catfish--Round Weight Processed, in the US In Thousands of Pounds (Live Weight) Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
46,723 48,723 50,552 46,999 52,551 55,523 53,849 53,856
47,606 48,891 50,942 50,257 52,856 55,461 54,173 51,720
53,761 56,310 56,856 57,766 58,340 65,007 60,272 57,117
49,393 46,830 48,781 52,478 50,694 57,105 53,896 50,306
45,218 47,703 48,424 51,736 52,902 58,424 52,324 51,552
46,244 48,445 48,011 47,883 49,450 52,441 50,155 49,626
46,383 50,074 49,023 47,829 52,363 54,089 51,055 47,241
47,739 50,372 53,204 51,690 54,383 54,153 53,295 50,686
46,579 50,414 49,422 49,699 53,366 51,885 51,329 47,151
47,904 52,407 51,412 52,264 56,576 57,652 52,396 49,034
43,224 48,118 45,535 44,670 50,072 51,246 49,536 46,674
43,581 48,341 41,441 43,837 48,048 48,518 48,170 45,707
564,355 596,628 593,603 597,108 631,601 661,504 630,450 600,670
Preliminary.
96
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
FISH Average Price Paid to Producers for Farm-Raised Catfish in the US
In Cents Per Pound (Live Weight)
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
69.0 70.3 74.4 69.3 54.9 52.9 66.8 72.5
73.0 71.4 78.8 69.6 55.5 54.4 70.3 73.1
78.0 73.2 78.9 69.7 56.5 58.5 72.3 73.3
79.0 75.6 78.9 69.4 56.1 63.0 72.8 72.5
79.0 77.7 78.5 68.7 57.4 61.8 72.0 72.2
78.0 77.5 78.6 66.9 58.8 58.6 68.9 72.1
76.0 76.8 76.0 65.6 59.0 56.4 68.2 72.3
74.0 74.3 74.1 62.4 58.2 55.2 68.3 72.4
73.0 72.8 72.7 61.0 57.6 56.0 68.3 72.4
71.0 71.6 71.0 59.6 56.8 56.7 69.5 72.4
70.0 71.3 69.6 56.6 56.0 61.0 68.9 72.4
70.0 71.6 68.2 55.4 54.4 62.9 69.0 72.6
74.2 73.7 75.0 64.5 56.8 58.1 69.6 72.5
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Sales of Fresh Catfish in the United States Year
Whole 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 Fillets2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 Other3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,496 3,516 3,713 3,833 3,205 3,111
3,396 3,242 3,656 3,785 3,266 3,177
4,031 4,260 3,826 4,339 3,808 3,402
3,655 3,644 3,373 3,643 3,001 2,938
3,483 3,271 3,644 3,692 2,853 2,679
3,581 3,166 3,313 3,266 2,707 2,765
3,491 3,233 3,477 3,553 2,875 2,686
3,545 3,204 3,733 3,510 3,002 2,673
3,246 3,174 3,418 3,233 2,861 2,687
3,504 3,294 3,822 3,231 3,076 2,546
2,971 2,865 3,031 2,798 2,950 2,615
2,993 2,803 2,986 2,693 2,704 2,784
41,392 39,672 41,992 41,576 36,308 34,063
4,686 4,884 5,684 5,362 5,964 5,274
4,853 6,112 6,132 5,158 6,455 5,615
5,957 6,751 6,010 6,715 6,815 5,795
5,206 5,709 5,236 5,700 5,887 4,979
5,099 5,587 5,682 6,364 5,688 5,274
4,792 5,122 5,093 5,737 5,500 4,987
4,650 5,191 5,327 5,984 5,559 4,714
4,899 5,313 5,442 6,013 5,483 4,998
4,650 5,264 5,317 5,308 4,865 4,848
5,283 5,273 5,420 6,082 4,992 5,072
4,355 4,463 4,447 5,187 4,336 4,291
4,099 4,489 4,119 4,710 4,162 4,209
58,529 64,158 63,909 68,320 65,706 60,056
1,429 1,443 1,526 1,668 1,435 1,300
1,437 1,292 1,446 1,532 1,518 1,295
1,685 2,156 1,375 1,599 1,567 1,370
1,547 1,309 1,356 1,458 1,426 1,271
1,364 1,282 1,732 1,472 1,299 1,204
1,299 1,298 1,527 1,319 1,248 1,130
1,340 1,375 1,576 1,425 1,181 1,097
1,438 1,436 1,569 1,366 1,173 1,128
1,332 1,449 1,441 1,473 1,228 1,084
1,473 1,430 1,596 1,361 1,263 1,121
1,271 1,223 1,165 1,138 1,152 965
1,198 1,252 1,205 1,134 1,095 900
16,813 16,945 17,514 16,945 15,585 13,865
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes regular, shank and strip fillets; excludes breaded products. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Prices of Fresh Catfish in the United States Year
Whole 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 Fillets2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 Other3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
I ncludes steaks, nuggets and all other products not reported.
In Dollars per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.63 1.59 1.36 1.28 1.49 1.64
1.67 1.68 1.35 1.30 1.53 1.64
1.69 1.63 1.30 1.35 1.57 1.61
1.70 1.65 1.34 1.37 1.60 1.61
1.68 1.65 1.36 1.36 1.60 1.61
1.63 1.62 1.37 1.39 1.57 1.58
1.65 1.59 1.35 1.33 1.57 1.58
1.70 1.55 1.32 1.33 1.58 1.57
1.67 1.53 1.32 1.34 1.56 1.58
1.64 1.49 1.28 1.36 1.59 1.63
1.62 1.42 1.24 1.40 1.51 1.55
1.58 1.37 1.25 1.43 1.57 1.50
1.66 1.56 1.32 1.35 1.56 1.59
2.82 2.80 2.52 2.44 2.59 2.81
2.87 2.79 2.49 2.45 2.62 2.75
2.89 2.80 2.49 2.44 2.71 2.85
2.88 2.80 2.51 2.49 2.73 2.87
2.88 2.80 2.53 2.51 2.74 2.86
2.90 2.78 2.55 2.50 2.74 2.85
2.90 2.77 2.55 2.48 2.73 2.84
2.88 2.75 2.54 2.48 2.73 2.83
2.85 2.69 2.54 2.49 2.74 2.83
2.83 2.63 2.52 2.49 2.76 2.84
2.83 2.60 2.49 2.50 2.77 2.84
2.81 2.55 2.47 2.54 2.77 2.84
2.86 2.73 2.52 2.48 2.72 2.83
1.66 1.64 1.53 1.40 1.63 1.67
1.69 1.68 1.57 1.41 1.70 1.67
1.69 1.57 1.54 1.51 1.71 1.74
1.66 1.64 1.51 1.53 1.78 1.71
1.71 1.69 1.45 1.47 1.78 1.77
1.71 1.64 1.51 1.54 1.78 1.78
1.72 1.61 1.51 1.52 1.62 1.72
1.69 1.57 1.50 1.58 1.76 1.68
1.62 1.52 1.54 1.50 1.69 1.64
1.68 1.59 1.48 1.58 1.72 1.65
1.71 1.59 1.55 1.60 1.70 1.60
1.68 1.53 1.46 1.64 1.71 1.65
1.69 1.61 1.51 1.52 1.72 1.69
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes regular, shank and strip fillets; excludes breaded products. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
3
3
I ncludes steaks, nuggets and all other products not reported.
97
Flaxseed and Linseed Oil Flaxseed, also called linseed, is an ancient crop that was cultivated by the Babylonians around 3,000 BC. Flaxseed is used for fiber in textiles and to produce oil. Flaxseeds contain approximately 35% oil, of which 60% is omega-3 fatty acid. Flaxseed or linseed oil is obtained through either the expeller extraction or solvent extraction method. Manufacturers filter the processed oil to remove some impurities and then sell it as unrefined. Unrefined oil retains its full flavor, aroma, color, and naturally occurring nutrients. Flaxseed oil is used for cooking and as a dietary supplement as well as for animal feed. Industrial linseed oil is not for internal consumption due to possible poisonous additives and is used for making putty, sealants, linoleum, wood preservation, varnishes, and oil paints. Flaxseed futures and options trade at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange. The futures contract calls for the delivery of 20 metric tons of flaxseed. The contract is now priced in US dollars per metric ton. Prices – The average monthly price received by US farmers for flaxseed in the 2005/06 marketing year (through December 2005) fell sharply by –27.8%yr/yr to $6.76 per bushel from $9.36 per bushel in the 2004-05 marketing year. The current price, however, is still a 16-year high except for the unusual record high of $9.36 posted last year. Supply – World production of flaxseed in the 2003-04 (latest data available) marketing year rose +6.3% yr/yr to 2.222 million metric tons from the 11-year low of 2.090 mil-
World Production of Flaxseed Year
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
Preliminary.
lion metric tons posted in 2002-03. The world’s largest producer of flaxseed is Canada with 38% of world production in 2002-03, followed by China (21%), the US (12%), and India (10%). US production of flaxseed in 2004-05 fell by –0.4% yr/yr to 10.471 million bushels from the 23-year high of 11.863 million bushels posted in 2002-03. North Dakota is by far the largest producing state of flaxseed and accounted for 95.0% of flaxseed production in 2004, followed by South Dakota with 1.3% of production and Minnesota with 0.5% of production. World production of linseed oil in 2003-04 rose by +3.0% yr/yr to 614,300 metric tons. The world’s largest producers of linseed oil are China (with 20% of world production in 2003-04) the US (17%), and India (11%). US production of linseed oil in 2004-05 fell by –4.2% yr/yr to 203 million pounds. Demand – US distribution of flaxseed in 2004-05 fell – 5.9% yr/yr to 13.996 million bushels. The breakdown was 75% for crushing into meal and oil, 14% for exports, 7% for residual, and 4% for seed. US consumption of linseed oil (inedible products) in the 2005-06 marketing year (through Oct) fell –19.9% yr/yr to 51.723 million pounds. Trade – US exports of flaxseed in 2003-04 rose by +14.4% yr/yr to 2.013 million bushels. US imports of flaxseed in 2004-05 fell by –22.7% yr/yr to 3.537 million bushels.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Australia
Bangladesh
Canada
China
Egypt
France
Hungary
India
Romania
United States
Former USSR
World Total
149 72 75 85 47 22 16 11 29 36
15 7 9 10 9 9 9 6 7 7
49 46 50 50 46 48 50 50 50 50
1,105 851 1,038 1,210 1,100 775 770 750 835 600
420 480 393 523 404 520 253 463 450 460
16 17 19 24 30 30 26 19 22 21
27 29 31 29 34 38 29 49 53 54
4 4 ---1 2 1 1 1 1 1
308 319 275 265 289 240 240 200 230 200
5 5 5 3 3 1 2 2 2 2
56 41 62 170 200 273 291 301 265 266
113 86 47 55 42 74 82 60 77 109
2,518 2,300 2,370 2,828 2,868 2,361 2,006 2,099 2,254 2,029
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
Supply and Distribution of Flaxseed in the United States Crop Year Beginning June 1
Planted
------- 1,000 Acres -------
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
98
Harvested
96 151 336 387 536 585 784 595 523 983 2
Estimate.
Yield Per Acre (Bushels)
92 146 329 381 517 578 703 588 516 955 3
Forecast.
17.4 16.6 20.4 20.6 20.8 19.8 16.9 17.9 20.3 20.6
In Thousands of Bushels
------------------------- Supply ------------------------Beginning Stocks
Production
1,230 453 1,181 2,158 1,767 1,308 893 1,078 1,288
1,602 2,420 6,708 7,864 10,730 11,455 11,863 10,516 10,471 19,695
--------------------------------- Distribution -------------------------------
Imports
Total Supply
S eed
Crush
Exports
Residual
Total Distribution
8,390 9,636 5,992 6,629 2,849 1,904 2,901 4,573 3,537
11,222 12,509 13,881 16,651 15,346 14,667 15,657 16,167 15,296
122 272 313 434 474 635 482 509 529
10,000 10,500 10,600 11,500 12,000 10,000 10,500 10,860 10,410
144 174 476 201 1,017 2,386 3,181 2,516 2,013
503 382 333 2,735 572 753 416 994 1,041
10,769 11,328 11,723 14,884 14,038 13,774 14,579 14,879 13,996
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
FLAXSEED AND LINSEED OIL Production of Flaxseed in the United States, by States Crop Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Bushels
MInnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Other States
Total
Crop Year
MInnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Other States
Total
96 432 300 198 198
1,386 1,997 5,817 6,867 9,975
126 252 294 357 361
30 75 165 340 196
1,602 2,420 6,708 7,864 10,730
2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
52 64 161 51 132
10,900 11,560 9,990 9,840 18,165
323 44 144 135 480
180 195 221 445 918
11,455 11,863 10,516 10,471 19,695
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Factory Shipments of Paints, Varnish and Lacquer in the United States Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1997 1998 1999 2000 1999
3,515.2 3,600.7 3,926.2 4,073.1 3,926.2
4,023.4 4,216.4 4,452.2 4,573.5 4,452.2
3,924.1 4,063.9 4,216.5 4,082.0 4,216.5
3,323.0 3,804.4 3,925.7 3,474.7 3,925.7
14,786 15,685 16,521 16,203 16,521
1
Preliminary.
In Millions of Dollars
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
3,625.0 3,729.9 3,981.5 4,306.1 4,268.9
4,345.4 4,440.7 4,671.8 5,000.1 5,536.1
4,094.5 4,251.4 4,374.7 4,843.2 5,199.5
3,652.6 3,600.7 3,905.8 4,104.7
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Consumption of Linseed Oil (Inedible Products) in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
Year
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
Total
15,718 16,023 16,934 18,254 20,006
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total
7.2 5.4 6.5 9.6 11.7 7.9 7.3 4.8
6.8 6.2 7.2 8.4 9.6 6.9 7.3 4.5
6.4 5.5 7.3 9.2 10.0 6.0 6.7 4.2
5.6 5.2 7.5 7.4 7.0 6.8 5.6 3.7
4.6 5.6 6.5 5.3 5.7 3.5 4.8 2.7
6.6 4.5 5.7 5.0 7.3 5.0 5.1 2.9
5.9 4.2 8.0 8.2 6.8 5.6 3.7
4.7 6.1 6.7 7.1 6.4 7.3 4.8
6.8 5.8 7.7 6.9 8.7 6.0 4.9
6.4 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.5 7.7 4.0
5.6 7.6 9.3 7.7 6.6 8.1 5.7
7.9 6.6 9.4 8.7 6.7 8.2 4.7
74.6 69.8 89.3 91.3 94.9 79.1 64.6 45.7
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
USD Per Bushel ----- No. 1, Minneapolis (Jan. 1901 - Jan. 1986) CAD Per Metric Ton No. 1, Thunder Bay (Aug. 1991 - date) USD Per Bushel - - - Average Received by Farmers, US (July 1929 - date)
99
FLAXSEED AND LINSEED OIL Supply and Distribution of Linseed Oil in the United States Crop Year Beginning June 1
1
Stocks June 1
Production
Total
Exports
Domestic
Total Disappearance
Average Price at Minneapolis Cents/Lb.
45 50 35 42 48 49 43 45 45 45
180 200 205 207 224 234 195 205 212 203
229 256 247 261 285 295 249 263 272 263
26 66 58 63 74 73 50 70 76 78
153 155 147 150 162 179 153 148 151 140
179 221 205 213 236 252 204 218 227 218
36.5 36.0 36.3 36.4 35.8 36.0 38.1 39.9 41.8 38.5-40.5
-------------------------------- Supply ---------------------------------
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
Year
1
-------------------------------- Disappearance ---------------------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
World Production and Price of Linseed Oil
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Bangladesh
Belgium
China
Egypt
Germany
India
47.5 17.1 24.1 24.5 13.1 6.2 3.8 2.1 2.3 6.5
13.0 12.5 13.4 13.6 12.6 12.9 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6
44.3 52.1 54.7 59.2 68.8 75.2 95.0 92.1 126.0 96.0
125.1 142.5 120.0 150.0 118.3 133.0 81.3 124.9 124.0 127.0
8.0 9.6 11.1 15.2 15.0 23.0 16.4 15.1 10.9 10.8
72.0 52.2 66.9 74.1 73.6 63.4 57.3 64.4 66.6 44.3
88.1 90.0 84.3 80.1 85.9 74.7 72.4 63.3 67.7 62.7
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 Preliminary.
2
In Millions of Pounds
Forecast.
Ja p a n
United Kingdom
United States
Former USSR
World Total
Rotterdam Ex-Tank $/Tonne
30.0 31.0 31.3 26.5 23.8 21.1 18.9 8.6 7.5 5.9
28.9 34.1 35.1 34.3 34.1 17.0 9.9 5.9 6.8 6.3
80.0 97.9 100.7 107.6 124.9 114.7 95.7 105.5 105.5 130.5
12.7 16.5 7.2 10.7 7.9 16.4 18.7 13.0 15.3 23.8
665.3 676.7 678.6 731.1 709.4 669.0 588.9 596.7 629.0 603.6
579 560 686 575 413 378 454 679 757 1,225
Source: The Oil World
Average Price Received by Farmers for Flaxseed in the United States Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Dollars Per Bushel
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Average
6.19 6.07 6.17 4.40 3.25 4.28 5.38 6.38 7.33 10.40
6.15 5.53 5.45 3.86 3.05 4.09 5.27 5.30 6.90 6.28
5.89 5.72 5.09 4.00 3.10 4.10 5.55 5.43 7.19 6.10
6.49 5.81 4.86 3.76 3.17 4.21 5.76 5.77 7.36 6.05
6.38 5.71 4.97 3.66 3.39 4.33 6.04 6.02 8.62 5.93
6.77 5.72 5.00 3.61 4.45 4.55 5.92 6.15 8.42 5.82
6.43 5.82 5.05 3.75 3.42 4.22 5.71 6.08 8.89 5.64
6.74 6.27 5.05 3.43 3.43 4.75 6.25 6.39 10.90 5.10
6.66 6.26 4.94 3.70 3.90 4.75 6.47 6.53 11.50
6.43 6.23 4.93 3.66 3.68 4.80 6.57 7.01 12.30
6.45 6.33 4.89 3.77 3.91 5.02 6.05 7.10 11.60
5.99 6.17 4.38 3.64 4.10 5.29 6.02 7.23 11.20
6.38 5.97 5.07 3.77 3.57 4.53 5.92 6.28 9.35 6.42
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Stocks of Linseed Oil (Crude and Refined) at Factories and Warehouses in the US
In Millions of Pounds
Year
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Jan. 1
F eb. 1
Mar. 1
Apr. 1
May 1
June 1
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
51.3 39.9 49.6 68.7 39.5 29.1 27.8 30.2 15.1 38.1
50.9 35.2 45.3 65.5 42.5 30.2 17.7 27.2 15.8 24.8
59.0 40.3 38.5 68.9 41.3 22.6 12.8 22.3 8.0 14.1
46.1 33.3 55.4 74.0 54.3 38.4 21.8 78.5 13.0 33.9
38.8 38.6 35.7 92.4 58.7 32.4 30.5 42.0 17.1 31.1
41.8 40.3 44.5 69.6 87.0 29.9 29.0 35.0 26.9 21.0
49.2 46.9 53.2 72.0 61.6 33.4 31.9 40.0 31.3 29.4
48.1 60.8 68.2 69.5 50.1 36.6 35.9 43.4 35.4
53.9 55.8 54.6 65.7 50.5 26.8 34.6 37.6 35.4
50.5 63.1 68.2 53.9 51.2 33.4 36.2 32.9 41.0
44.5 54.6 65.3 49.1 39.2 32.3 33.7 24.5 43.9
45.6 49.4 76.2 44.2 44.8 31.1 33.7 19.9 47.2
1
Preliminary.
100
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
FLAXSEED AND LINSEED OIL
Wholesale Price of Raw Linseed Oil at Minneapolis in Tank Cars Year
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 1
Preliminary.
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Average
35.00 37.00 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 35.50 40.00 41.75 48.50
35.50 37.20 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 38.00 38.00 41.75 50.00
37.00 37.50 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 42.00 55.00
37.00 37.00 37.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 31.75 42.75 57.20
37.00 33.75 37.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 43.13 60.00
37.00 32.12 37.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 43.25 58.17
37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 42.60
37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 40.00
37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 40.00
37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 40.00
37.00 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.65 41.19 45.00
37.00 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 32.00 40.35 41.75 45.50
36.71 35.88 36.42 36.50 36.00 35.67 38.79 39.97 42.31 54.81
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Open Interest of Flaxseed Futures in Winnipeg Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
6,059 5,420 10,059 4,372 4,365 4,101 2,225 235 38 0
6,056 5,356 10,190 4,552 4,907 3,476 1,981 316 23 0
4,402 5,591 9,707 4,533 5,588 4,270 1,921 477 15 0
5,192 5,151 8,540 4,238 6,218 3,043 1,787 604 0 0
6,970 4,923 6,480 3,719 5,066 3,169 1,270 394 0 0
4,435 4,075 6,874 2,456 3,696 3,661 935 489 0 0
3,102 3,891 6,030 2,149 3,152 2,745 612 298 0 0
2,989 4,031 6,767 2,758 3,585 2,350 699 305 0 0
3,257 7,131 7,421 3,725 3,936 2,400 776 253 179 0
3,438 8,284 7,221 4,236 4,666 3,158 704 193 15 0
4,326 7,255 7,564 4,493 4,922 2,726 424 94 214 0
5,119 7,955 5,828 4,276 4,914 3,031 249 49 578 0
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Volume of Trading of Flaxseed Futures in Winnipeg Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
9,617 7,640 15,713 4,855 9,022 8,232 2,990 333 35 0
8,301 6,486 19,906 8,922 9,340 6,428 2,838 724 10 0
4,110 7,123 8,275 4,383 9,292 6,928 2,519 412 15 0
13,531 10,912 9,060 8,460 12,604 7,117 3,832 368 0 0
10,855 6,256 5,231 5,241 7,372 6,514 3,320 452 0 0
7,997 7,851 7,642 5,891 7,393 6,745 3,018 738 0 0
6,517 7,662 4,468 4,863 2,676 4,344 1,153 343 0 0
4,153 7,081 4,062 2,833 2,525 2,620 810 96 0 0
5,430 20,967 7,328 5,852 9,822 5,242 777 491 15 0
11,126 23,418 13,085 12,078 11,915 7,291 3,030 273 0 0
7,532 20,049 13,824 7,710 14,436 4,689 955 183 0 0
10,720 15,311 6,958 7,345 7,819 6,326 344 25 15 0
99,889 140,756 115,552 78,433 100,040 72,476 25,586 4,438 90 0
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
101
Fruits ons (-6.2% to $1.235 per pound), grapefruit (+13.3% to 81.9 cents per pound), navel oranges (+2.5% to 85.9 cents per pound), and Valencia oranges (+20.2% to 69.1 cents per pound). Supply – US commercial production of selected fruits in 2004, the last reporting year, rose +3.3% to 33.038 million short tons. By weight, oranges accounted for 39% of that US fruit production figure, followed by grapes at 19%, and apples at 16%. The value of US fruit production in 2004 rose +11.7% yr/yr to $14.944 billion. Demand – US per capita fresh fruit consumption in 2004 rose +0.6% to 101.97 pounds per year, which is a new record high. The highest per capita consumption categories for noncitrus fruits in 2004 were bananas (25.76 pounds) and apples (18.60 pounds). Per capital consumption of citrus fruits was the highest for oranges (10.78 pounds), grapefruit (4.14 pounds) and lemons (3.12 pounds). The utilization breakdown for 2004 shows that 42% of total US non-citrus fruit utilization went for fresh fruit, 23% for wine, 10% for canned fruit, 9% for juice, 8% for dried fruit, and 4% for frozen fruit. The value of utilized non-citrus fruit production in 2004 rose +3.5% yr/yr to $8.941 billion.
A fruit is any seed-bearing structure produced from a flowering plant. A widely used classification system divides fruit into fleshy or dry types. Fleshy fruits are juicy and include peaches, mangos, apples, and blueberries. Dry fruits include tree nuts such as almonds, walnuts, and pecans. Some foods that are commonly called vegetables, such as tomatoes, squash, peppers and eggplant, are technically fruits because they develop from the ovary of a flower. Worldwide, over 430 million tons of fruit are produced each year and are grown everywhere except the Arctic and the Antarctic. The tropics, because of their abundant moisture and warm temperatures, produce the most diverse and abundant fruits. Mexico and Chile produce more than half of all the fresh and frozen fruit imported into the US. In the US, the top three fruits produced are oranges, grapes, and apples. Virtually all US production of almonds, pistachios, and walnuts occurs in California, which leads the US in tree nut production. Prices – Fruit prices were fairly strong in 2004 with the fresh fruit Consumer Price Index rising +2.7% to 286.8 and the processed fruit CPI index rising +0.3% to 114.0. Fruit prices generally rose in 2004: Red Delicious Apples (+6.4% to $1.043 cents per pound), bananas (-2.8% to 49.5 cents per pound), Anjou pears (+18.0% to $1.168 cents per pound), Thompson seedless grapes (+8.4% to $2.059 per pound), lem-
Commercial Production for Selected Fruits in the United States Year
Apples Cherries2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
5,823 5,316 5,291 4,712 4,262 4,397 5,210
1
Preliminary.
2
371 344 352 415 213 359 390
Cranberries Grapes
272 318 286 267 285 310 309
Sweet and tart.
5,820 6,236 7,688 6,569 7,339 6,644 6,232 3
Grapefruit Lemons
2,593 897 2,513 747 2,763 840 2,462 996 2,424 801 2,063 1,026 2,165 798
Utilized production.
Nectarines Oranges Peaches
224 274 267 275 300 273 269
13,670 9,824 12,997 12,221 12,374 11,545 12,872
332 352 354 323 320 300 215
559 819 735 916 902 950 651 826 736 942 803 1,078 325 1,107
128 115 99 95 97 105 45
Tangerines
Total All Fruits
360 327 458 373 420 382 417
34,590 30,819 36,115 32,916 33,173 31,992 33,038
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
In Thousands of Short Tons
-------------------------------- Utiliz ed Production --------------------------------
--------------------------------------- Value of Production -------------------------------------
Noncitrus Tree Nuts3 Total Citrus2 ------------------------- In Thousands of Short Tons -------------------------
Citrus2 Noncitrus Tree Nuts3 Total ------------------------------------ In Thousands of Dollars ----------------------------------
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
Pine- Prunes StrawPears apples3 & Plums berries Tangelos
1,190 990 1,252 1,044 1,276 993 1,204 1,027 1,268 890 1,260 934 1,307 890
Utiliz ed Production for Selected Fruits in the United States
Year
In Thousands of Short Tons
17,770 13,633 17,276 16,216 16,194 15,180 16,360
16,552 17,347 18,854 16,740 17,122 16,853 16,827
908 1,288 1,086 1,304 1,448 1,458 1,524
35,230 32,267 37,216 34,260 34,764 33,491 34,711
2,600,066 2,431,179 2,513,174 2,319,917 2,610,559 2,259,976 2,500,539
7,251,032 8,077,404 7,883,036 7,918,636 8,137,640 8,641,476 8,940,903
1,365,349 1,505,926 1,496,584 1,513,063 2,078,670 2,472,480 3,502,996
11,216,447 12,014,509 11,892,794 11,751,616 12,826,869 13,373,932 14,944,438
Preliminary. 2 Year harvest was completed. 3 Tree nuts on an in-shell equivalent. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Annual Average Retail Prices for Selected Fruits in the United States
In Dollars Per Pound ------------- Oranges -------------
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 1
Estimate.
102
Red Delicious Apples
Bananas
.943 .897 .919 .868 .948 .980 1.043
.494 .491 .501 .507 .508 .509 .495
Anjou Pears
Thompson Seedless Grapes
Lemons
Grapefruit
Navel
Valenci a s
1.089 .950 .986 .966 .997 .990 1.168
1.589 1.841 1.745 1.850 1.887 1.899 2.059
1.198 1.236 1.289 1.265 1.391 1.317 1.235
.599 .612 .610 .651 .648 .723 .819
.565 .843 .613 .722 .836 .838 .859
.657 .947 .610 .524 .565 .575 .691
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
FRUITS Utiliz ation of Noncitrus Fruit Production, and Value in the U.S.
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 1
Preliminary.
1,000 Short Tons (Fresh Equivalent)
Utilized Production
Fresh
Canned
Dried
Juice
Frozen
Wine
Other
Value of utilized Production $1,000
16,348 16,103 18,400 16,552 17,347 18,854 16,740 17,122 16,853 16,827
6,285 6,313 6,642 6,514 6,691 7,015 6,488 6,549 6,676 7,156
1,753 1,873 2,130 1,845 1,986 1,812 1,859 1,727 1,762 1,701
2,400 2,275 2,660 1,911 2,154 3,023 2,290 2,582 2,293 1,419
1,857 1,582 1,666 1,786 1,887 1,712 1,462 1,251 1,295 1,451
647 604 699 711 717 691 665 591 716 685
2,992 3,043 4,035 3,315 3,351 4,130 3,568 3,999 3,582 3,818
205 180 293 198 244 191 169 138 219 289
6,815,962 7,265,788 8,189,821 7,251,032 8,077,404 7,883,036 7,918,636 8,137,640 8,641,476 8,940,903
--------------------------------------------------------- Processed ---------------------------------------------------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Indexes for Fruits in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
----------------------------------------- Producer Price Index ---------------------------------------Fresh Dried Canned Fruits Frozen Fruits Fruit Fruit and Juices and Juices ------------------------------------------------ 1982 = 100 -------------------------------------------------
Index of all Fruit and Nut Prices Received by Growers (1990-92=100)
97 118 110 111 115 98 109 105 106 120
Estimate.
85.6 100.8 99.4 90.5 103.6 91.4 97.7 91.5 84.1 104.9
116.1 119.1 123.3 121.8 122.9 122.4 120.3 120.7 122.1 NA
129.4 137.5 138.4 134.3 137.0 139.5 143.3 141.6 142.3 142.4
Year
200.3 234.4 236.3 246.5 266.3 258.3 265.1 270.2 279.1 286.8
137.0 83.1 148.5 101.9 105.4 106.9 109.0 111.5 113.7 114.0
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Fresh Fruit: Per Capita Consumption1 in the United States
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20042
136.7 83.6 148.2 101.5 106.1 108.9 111.9 111.2 115.7 112.1
------- Consumer Price Index ------Fresh Processed Fruit Fruit -------------- 1982-84 = 100 --------------
----------------------------------- Citrus Fruit ---------------------------------------Tangerines Oranges and Tangelos Lemons Grapefruit Total
11.83 12.58 13.91 14.61 8.38 11.74 11.88 11.73 11.89 10.78
1.99 2.15 2.52 2.17 2.30 2.86 2.72 2.55 2.72 2.76
2.84 2.86 2.76 2.46 2.61 2.44 2.95 3.32 3.33 3.12
6.00 5.85 6.18 5.94 5.75 5.09 4.85 4.63 4.10 4.14
23.84 24.58 26.52 26.58 20.37 18.43 23.89 23.33 23.95 22.68
In Pounds
---------------------------------------------- Noncitrus Fruit ---------------------------------------CranApples Apricots Avacados Bananas Cherries berries
18.69 18.67 18.09 18.98 18.50 17.46 15.60 16.00 16.91 18.60
.10 .09 .14 .12 .12 .15 .08 .09 .13 .13
1.58 1.58 1.73 1.52 1.92 2.21 2.50 2.33 2.74 2.88
27.08 27.60 27.16 28.01 30.70 28.44 26.63 26.77 26.15 25.76
.29 .40 .60 .52 .63 .60 .77 .70 .92 .99
.08 .08 .07 .07 .11 .14 .13 .11 .10 .11
All data on calendar-year basis except for citrus fruits; apples, August; grapes and pears, July; grapefruit, September; lemons, August of prior year; all other citrus, November. 2 Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Fresh Fruit: Per Capita Consumption1 in the United States Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20042
In Pounds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Noncitrus Fruit Continued -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Nectarines PinePlums & StrawTotal Total Grapes Kiwifruit Mangos & Peaches Pears apples Papaya Prunes berries Noncitrus Fruit
7.46 6.73 7.76 7.17 7.97 7.44 7.38 8.41 7.65 7.78
.55 .54 .48 .55 .55 .56 .57 .49 .39 .44
1.12 1.34 1.44 1.49 1.62 1.75 1.79 1.97 2.06 2.01
5.33 4.38 5.51 4.69 5.29 5.30 5.16 5.23 5.17 5.14
3.36 3.05 3.39 3.43 3.53 3.39 3.25 3.06 3.08 3.03
1.91 1.90 2.34 2.75 3.03 3.22 3.16 3.82 4.39 4.33
.37 .54 .47 .47 .62 .68 .78 .79 .87 1.03
.93 1.43 1.51 1.18 1.28 1.19 1.33 1.26 1.24 1.12
4.06 4.27 4.05 3.87 4.52 4.81 4.17 4.60 5.23 5.41
73.23 72.87 75.03 75.14 80.70 77.60 73.64 76.02 77.41 79.29
97.07 97.45 101.55 101.72 101.07 96.02 97.53 99.35 101.36 101.97
All data on calendar-year basis except for citrus fruits; apples, August; grapes and pears, July; grapefruit, September; lemons, August of prior year; all other citrus, November. 2 Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
103
Gas Natural gas is a fossil fuel that is colorless, shapeless, and odorless in its pure form. It is a mixture of hydrocarbon gases formed primarily of methane, but it can also include ethane, propane, butane, and pentane. Natural gas is combustible, clean burning, and gives off a great deal of energy. Around 500 BC, the Chinese discovered that the energy in natural gas could be harnessed. They passed it through crude bamboo-shoot pipes and then burned it to boil sea water to create potable fresh water. Around 1785, Britain became the first country to commercially use natural gas produced from coal for streetlights and indoor lights. In 1821, William Hart dug the first well specifically intended to obtain natural gas and he is generally regarded as the “father of natural gas” in America. There is a vast amount of natural gas estimated to still be in the ground in the US. Natural gas as a source of energy is significantly less expensive than electricity per Btu. Natural gas futures and options are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The NYMEX natural gas futures contract calls for the delivery of natural gas representing 10,000 million British thermal units (mmBtu) at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, which is the nexus of 16 intrastate and inter-state pipelines. The contract is priced in terms of dollars per mmBtu. NYMEX also has basic swap futures contracts available for 30 different natural gas pricing locations versus the benchmark Henry Hub location. Natural gas futures are also listed in London on the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
Prices – NYMEX natural gas futures on the nearestfutures chart in 2005 traded in a range of about $7.00-$15.78 per mmBtu to post the record high of $15.78 per mmBtu in December. The price then dropped sharply into the $8.00 range in early 2006. Supply –US recovery of natural gas in 2004 rose +0.2% to 24,113 billion cubic feet, which was just below the record high of 24,501 billion cubic feet recovered in 2001. The top US producing states of natural gas were Texas with 27.0% of US production in 2004, Oklahoma with 8.5%, New Mexico with 8.2%, Wyoming with 8.0%, and Louisiana with 7.0%. In 2005 the world’s largest natural gas producers were Russia with 2,016,097 terajoules of production and the US with 1,391,369 terajoules. Demand – US delivered consumption of natural gas in 2004 fell –0.3% yr/yr to 20,517 billion cubic feet, of which 24% was delivered to residences, 15% to commercial establishments, 26% to electrical utility plants, and 35% to industrial establishments. Trade – US imports (consumed) in 2004 fell –5.9% yr/ yr to 3,762 billion cubic feet from the record high of 4,015 billion cubic feet imported in 2002. US exports of natural gas in 2004 fell -1.0% yr/yr to 685 billion cubic feet from the 2003 record high of 692 billion cubic feet.
World Production of Natural Gas (Monthly Average Marketed Production3) Australia
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
99,461 99,077 95,265 92,440 92,746 96,523 96,841 99,771 104,731 110,108
Canada
China
Germany
530,891 72,609 537,295 81,954 538,273 84,033 569,819 79,523 588,447 90,287 550,463 98,431 553,183 106,720 534,434 111,352 537,643 132,281 546,184 159,614
62,479 61,804 60,748 62,651 59,164 60,463 61,147 61,441 55,108 52,161
Indonesia
248,574 248,585 274,281 282,485 267,707 258,122 280,939 289,371 282,364
India
Italy
Mexico
Netherlands
74,776 84,892 88,195 91,468 94,783 91,063 92,568 89,570 98,773 100,965
63,436 61,173 60,159 56,616 54,289 48,008 46,190 42,812 39,760 38,568
106,214 109,568 182,615 182,610 178,861 171,940 168,675 174,733 177,650 186,039
236,803 209,526 198,554 186,672 178,989 192,180 186,206 201,433 232,485 212,773
(In Terajoule4)
Romania
Russia
United Kingdom
United States
48,023 41,547 32,932 38,952 38,254 40,422 38,004 38,831 41,725 38,336
1,844,954 1,771,467 1,665,726 1,807,313 1,898,046 1,887,953 1,934,011 2,016,895 2,055,061 2,029,406
293,536 299,503 314,506 345,040 377,565 370,237 361,414 358,798 333,492 326,500
1,706,764 1,711,134 1,722,107 1,790,617 1,812,716 1,848,810 1,792,367 1,726,221 1,564,674 1,703,047
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Compares all gas collected & utilized as fuel or as a chemical industry raw material, including gas used in oilfields and/or gasfields as a fuel by producers. 4 Terajoule = 10 to the 12th power Joule = approximately 10 to the 9th power BTU. NA = Not available. Source: United Nations
1
Marketed Production of Natural Gas in the United States, by States Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
Alaska
469,550 480,828 468,311 466,648 462,967 458,995 471,440 463,301 489,757 471,213
Preliminary.
104
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan Mississippi
New Mexico
279,555 523,084 286,494 572,071 285,690 637,375 315,277 696,321 382,715 722,738 376,580 752,985 377,824 817,206 360,205 937,245 337,216 1,011,285 319,665 1,037,121
721,436 712,796 687,215 603,586 553,419 525,729 480,145 454,901 418,893 394,173
5,108,366 5,289,742 1,505,014 1,551,979 1,566,916 1,455,014 1,502,086 1,361,751 1,350,399 1,382,253
238,203 95,533 245,740 103,263 305,950 107,300 278,076 108,068 277,364 111,021 296,556 88,558 275,036 107,541 274,476 112,980 236,987 133,901 260,820 145,374
1,625,837 1,554,087 1,558,633 1,501,098 1,511,671 1,695,295 1,689,125 1,632,080 1,604,015 1,632,536
California
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
(In Million Cubic Feet) Oklahoma
Texas
Wyoming
Total
1,811,734 1,734,887 1,703,888 1,669,367 1,594,002 1,612,890 1,615,384 1,581,606 1,558,155 1,690,818
6,330,048 6,470,620 5,167,334 5,227,477 5,054,486 5,282,104 5,282,723 5,141,075 5,243,567 5,337,720
673,775 666,036 738,368 903,836 971,230 1,088,328 1,363,879 1,453,957 1,539,318 1,590,756
19,506,474 19,812,241 19,866,093 19,961,348 19,804,848 20,197,511 20,570,295 19,884,780 19,911,802 19,794,835
GAS World Production of Natural Gas Plant Liquids Year
Algeria
Canada
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
150 160 155 190 230 250 270 280 290 290
596 636 651 653 699 709 698 724 658 637
423 388 424 439 438 433 408 418 442 426
697 712 755 745 1,008 1,051 1,095 1,220 1,183 1,225
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
(Thousand Barrels per Day) Russia
United States
Persian Gulf2
OAPEC3
OPEC4
World
185 195 220 231 232 237 246 390 456 467
1,830 1,817 1,759 1,850 1,911 1,868 1,880 1,719 1,809 1,733
1,082 1,152 1,225 1,232 1,556 1,721 1,797 1,978 1,962 2,030
1,295 1,384 1,449 1,491 1,904 2,108 2,226 2,418 2,394 2,404
1,501 1,589 1,662 1,728 2,101 2,304 2,403 2,554 2,560 2,625
5,585 5,729 5,883 6,075 6,616 7,016 7,190 7,530 7,465 7,504
Preliminary. 2 Bahrain, I ran, I raq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 3 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. 4 Organization of Pertroleum Exporting Countries. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
Recoverable Reserves and Deliveries of Natural Gas in the United States
Year
Gross Withdrawals
Recoverable Reserves of Natural Gas D e c. 3 1 2
23,744 24,114 24,213 24,108 23,823 24,174 24,501 23,941 24,056 24,113
165,146 166,474 167,223 164,041 167,406 177,427 183,460 186,946 189,044 192,513
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41
----------------------------------------- Deliveries -----------------------------------------Electric Utility Total Plants3 Residential Commercial Industrial Deliveries
4,850 5,241 4,984 4,520 4,726 4,996 4,771 4,890 5,078 4,881
3,034 3,161 3,215 2,999 3,045 3,182 3,023 3,103 3,217 3,002
3,197 2,732 4,065 4,588 4,820 5,206 5,342 5,672 5,135 5,327
8,580 8,870 8,511 8,320 8,079 8,142 7,344 7,557 7,139 7,287
(in Billions of Cubic Feet) Heating Value BTU per Cubic Foot
------- Consumption ------Used as L e a se & Pipeline Plant Fuel Fuel
19,660 20,006 20,782 20,438 20,681 21,540 20,495 21,236 20,587 20,517
1,220 1,250 1,203 1,173 1,079 1,151 1,119 1,113 1,123 1,105
700 711 751 635 645 642 624 667 665 662
1,027 1,027 1,026 1,031 1,027 1,025 1,028 1,028
Preliminary. 2 Estimated proved recoverable reserves of dry natural gas. 3 Figures include gas other than natural (impossible to segregate); therefore, shown separately from other consumption. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
Gas Utility Sales in the United States by Types and Class of Service Total Number of Utility Customers Sales (Millions)
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
9,248 9,221 10,242 9,722 8,781 8,975 9,232 8,667 8,864
Preliminary.
2
------------------------- Class by Service ------------------------Resi- CommerElectric dential cial Industrial Generation Other
57.9 58.7 60.0 61.0 61.5 60.8 61.3 61.4 62.0
Estimate.
4,845 4,803 5,333 5,056 4,534 4,622 4,741 4,525 4,589
2,253 2,281 2,518 2,341 2,063 2,067 2,077 2,053 2,055
1,690 1,591 1,748 1,593 1,370 1,553 1,698 1,461 1,748
420 328 641 728 810 729 709 620 459
159 218 3 4 5 5 6 8 13
(In Trillions of BTUs)
------------ Revenue - Million $ From Sales to Customers -----------Resi- CommerElectric Total dential cial industrial Generation Other
49,852 46,436 53,630 54,876 47,084 47,202 59,243 69,150 57,112
30,552 28,742 32,942 34,187 30,130 30,095 35,828 42,454 35,062
12,276 11,573 13,250 13,203 11,020 10,731 13,338 16,848 13,512
5,529 4,816 5,812 5,556 4,189 4,715 7,432 7,513 6,840
1,170 836 1,615 1,912 1,726 1,641 2,612 2,286 1,639
597 549 12 18 20 21 33 49 59
Source: American Gas Association (AGA)
Salient Statistics of Natural Gas in the United States
Year
------------------------------- Supply ------------------------------- ---------------- Disposition ---------------- --------- Average Price Delivered to Consumers --------MarWellTotal A dded Dry Storage Imports keted Extrachead Resi- Com- Indus- Electric D i sto Total ConWith- (ConProtion Protrial Utilities Loss duction drawals sumed) Supply sumption Exports Storage position Price Imports Exports dential mercial duction ------------------------------------------- In Billions of Cubic Feet ------------------------------------------------ --------------- USD Per Thousand Cubic Feet ---------------
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
19,506 908 18,599 19,812 958 18,854 19,866 964 18,902 24,108 938 19,024 23,823 973 18,832 24,174 1,016 19,182 24,501 954 19,616 23,941 957 18,928 24,119 876 19,099 24,055 927 18,757
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3,025 2,981 2,894 2,432 2,808 3,550 2,344 3,180 3,161 3,088
2,841 2,937 2,994 3,152 3,586 3,782 3,977 4,015 3,944 4,259
24,837 25,635 25,502 25,826 25,699 26,815 26,697 26,767 26,963 26,985
22,207 22,610 22,737 22,246 22,405 23,333 22,239 23,007 22,277 22,430
154 153 157 159 163 244 373 516 680 854
2,610 2,979 2,870 2,961 2,636 2,721 3,510 2,713 3,358 3,202
23,744 24,114 24,213 25,826 25,699 26,815 26,697 26,767 26,963 26,985
1.55 1.49 2.17 1.97 2.32 2.17 1.96 1.97 2.19 2.24 3.68 3.95 4.00 4.43 2.95 3.14 4.88 5.17 5.46 5.81
2.39 6.06 2.97 6.34 3.02 6.94 2.45 6.82 2.61 6.69 4.10 7.76 4.19 9.63 3.41 7.89 5.54 9.63 6.09 10.75
5.05 5.40 5.80 5.48 5.33 6.59 8.43 6.63 8.40 9.41
2.71 3.42 3.59 3.14 3.12 4.45 5.24 4.02 5.89 6.56
2.02 2.69 2.78 2.40 2.62 4.38 4.61 3.68 5.57 6.11
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
105
GAS Average Open Interest of Natural Gas Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
155,024 156,231 192,652 244,472 262,845 364,532 458,924 415,642 322,762 401,829
150,521 162,567 198,853 268,649 266,826 346,343 491,215 420,329 312,475 405,692
149,809 171,467 203,402 284,312 295,176 360,032 527,765 367,673 322,366 458,013
159,132 181,745 251,344 315,336 313,739 380,632 559,413 354,154 338,786 479,880
147,616 206,685 255,837 332,398 342,455 421,145 556,277 365,838 382,160 480,318
156,959 197,637 264,517 330,725 347,353 456,512 526,016 366,610 366,135 472,631
151,913 199,296 255,878 316,034 330,604 473,675 494,133 357,299 373,853 498,440
135,191 213,640 273,350 353,767 339,025 497,972 437,285 343,622 378,787 524,235
138,657 235,509 275,868 336,622 373,654 494,475 419,532 354,568 393,477 544,165
144,944 242,184 252,827 316,157 369,448 488,187 413,312 352,685 392,626 551,121
147,854 231,556 236,292 309,130 389,363 455,766 393,953 356,622 383,712 545,270
151,498 210,259 240,832 292,161 377,470 415,882 391,424 340,756 387,605 551,444
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Volume of Trading of Natural Gas Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
887.2 922.8 1,005.6 1,296.7 1,388.8 1,044.4 1,942.5 2,134.4 1,162.1 1,442.2
655.7 693.6 1,089.1 1,158.6 1,470.9 1,044.6 1,668.6 1,909.1 1,125.1 1,490.4
694.6 664.7 1,193.5 1,788.5 1,505.0 1,131.7 2,381.1 1,362.4 1,420.3 1,653.3
620.0 836.3 1,625.9 1,655.8 1,179.3 1,144.8 2,421.7 1,321.3 1,443.1 1,586.0
590.7 945.4 1,245.2 1,465.3 1,822.2 1,632.5 2,281.4 1,521.7 1,587.5 1,504.1
681.3 803.7 1,568.8 1,474.2 1,853.7 1,536.9 1,911.7 1,584.8 1,588.5 1,931.9
829.0 812.9 1,310.4 1,865.8 1,331.4 1,350.3 2,266.1 1,543.7 1,508.8 1,528.4
628.8 1,313.8 1,237.0 1,892.1 1,483.9 1,510.9 2,115.6 1,315.3 1,724.1 2,044.4
679.1 1,377.1 1,656.3 1,978.6 1,510.2 901.1 1,990.0 1,503.7 1,885.6 1,587.6
924.4 1,394.0 1,339.5 1,676.5 1,594.9 1,639.7 2,103.4 1,948.9 1,458.3 1,433.1
802.8 1,104.8 1,243.1 1,552.3 1,759.5 1,891.7 1,569.2 1,376.6 1,320.0 1,449.5
820.4 1,054.6 1,464.0 1,360.7 975.1 1,639.6 1,706.4 1,515.2 1,218.6 1,491.7
8,813.9 11,923.6 15,978.3 19,165.1 17,875.0 16,468.4 24,357.8 19,037.1 17,441.9 19,142.5
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Average Price of Natural Gas at Henry Hub
In Dollars Per MMBtu
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2.93 3.31 2.10 1.85 2.42 8.18 2.25 5.49 6.17 6.13
4.82 2.22 2.22 1.77 2.65 5.62 2.31 7.41 5.39 6.13
2.95 1.89 2.24 1.79 2.79 5.16 3.03 6.08 5.38 6.91
2.23 2.03 2.43 2.15 3.03 5.16 3.42 5.27 5.71 7.22
2.24 2.24 2.14 2.25 3.58 4.21 3.49 5.81 6.30 6.48
2.49 2.20 2.17 2.30 4.28 3.71 3.22 5.83 6.29 7.15
2.48 2.19 2.17 2.31 3.96 3.11 2.98 5.03 5.93 7.63
2.03 2.48 1.85 2.79 4.41 2.95 3.09 4.97 5.44 9.46
1.84 2.85 2.02 2.54 5.11 2.15 3.55 4.61 5.11 11.87
2.37 3.04 1.89 2.72 5.02 2.45 4.12 4.66 6.39 13.42
3.03 3.02 2.10 2.35 5.54 2.35 4.04 4.47 6.15 10.28
3.91 2.36 1.72 2.36 8.95 2.43 4.75 6.13 6.64 13.05
2.78 2.49 2.09 2.27 4.31 3.96 3.35 5.48 5.91 8.81
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
106
Gasoline Gasoline is a complex mixture of hundreds of lighter liquid hydrocarbons and is used chiefly as a fuel for internal-combustion engines. Petroleum crude, or crude oil, is still the most economical source of gasoline with refineries turning more than half of every barrel of crude oil into gasoline. The three basic steps to all refining operations are the separation process (separating crude oil into various chemical components), conversion process (breaking the chemicals down into molecules called hydrocarbons), and treatment process (transforming and combining hydrocarbon molecules and other additives). Another process, called hydro treating, removes a significant amount of sulfur from finished gasoline as is currently required by the state of California. Octane is a measure of a gasoline’s ability to resist pinging or knocking noise from an engine. Most gasoline stations offer three octane grades of unleaded fuel—regular at 87 (R+M)/2, mid-grade at 89 (R+M)/2, and premium at 93 (R+M)/2. Additional refining steps are needed to increase the octane, which increases the retail price. This does not make the gasoline any cleaner or better, but yields a different blend of hydrocarbons that burn more slowly. In an attempt to improve air quality and reduce harmful emissions from internal combustion engines, Congress in 1990 amended the Clean Air Act to mandate the addition of ethanol to gasoline. Some 2 billion gallons of ethanol are now added to gasoline each year in the US. The most common blend is E10, which contains 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline. Auto manufacturers have approved that mixture for use in all US vehicles. Ethanol is an alcohol-based fuel produced by fermenting and distilling crops such as corn, barley, wheat and sugar.
Unleaded gasoline futures and options trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The NYMEX gasoline futures contract calls for the delivery of 1,000 barrels (42,000 gallons) of unleaded gasoline in the New York harbor and is priced in terms of dollars and cents per gallon. Price – NYMEX gasoline futures prices rallied through most of 2005 to post a record high on the nearest-futures chart of $2.92 per gallon on August 31, 2005, which was a record high going back to the beginning of futures trading in 1984. Gasoline prices then traded lower until November when they rallied into December to close the year at $1.72 per gallon. The average monthly retail price of regular unleaded gasoline in 2005 (through September) rose +19.5% yr/yr to $2.25 per gallon, which was a record high. The average monthly retail price of unleaded premium motor gasoline in the US in 2005 (through September) rose by +17.8% to $2.44 per gallon, which was a new record high. The average monthly refiner price of finished aviation gasoline to end users in 2005 (through July) rose by +14.6% yr/yr to a record high of $2.25 per gallon. Supply – US production of gasoline in 2005 (through September, annualized) rose +1.2% yr/yr to 8.361 million barrels per day, which was a new record high. Gasoline stocks in July 2005 were 135.1 million barrels, down from 140.5 million barrels in July 2004. Demand – US consumption of finished motor gasoline in 2005 (through September, annualized) rose +0.1% yr/yr to 9.115 million barrels per day, which was a new record high.
Average Spot Price of Unleaded Gasoline in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
50.70 67.64 47.85 34.24 70.43 83.32 54.30 87.56 99.66 123.85
53.26 62.49 45.14 31.81 81.30 82.56 55.41 99.62 104.63 122.42
58.56 61.28 44.13 42.33 89.11 78.18 69.64 95.51 109.12 143.90
69.17 58.59 46.98 50.11 73.15 94.95 74.66 80.08 112.02 147.06
65.10 62.08 48.26 48.86 89.06 92.37 70.32 76.16 133.98 137.06
58.03 55.17 43.95 48.65 96.18 71.85 71.65 80.65 115.70 151.02
61.65 58.58 42.29 58.35 86.76 68.31 76.62 87.17 122.65 158.89
61.17 70.42 40.14 63.89 86.97 77.18 76.75 100.42 120.89 191.13
62.43 62.17 42.70 69.37 96.04 75.00 78.36 90.41 126.17 214.78
65.52 58.35 43.71 62.63 94.71 59.79 82.34 87.12 137.75 170.87
69.23 55.60 36.78 69.57 93.94 51.34 76.08 87.33 126.96 147.73
68.58 51.75 30.92 70.55 73.66 51.85 80.56 88.37 106.90 159.88
61.95 60.34 42.74 54.20 85.94 73.89 72.22 88.37 118.04 155.72
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Open Interest of Unleaded Regular Gasoline Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
64,561 68,188 106,353 105,532 89,049 117,540 136,795 117,558 125,207 162,432
64,990 84,693 102,656 113,683 103,586 126,762 139,191 124,288 141,837 161,603
70,100 92,520 108,667 111,449 105,448 124,631 133,649 113,380 150,573 172,012
71,895 97,619 117,521 110,531 105,133 124,162 129,274 98,627 146,375 166,620
66,172 90,407 107,235 107,644 103,831 111,576 120,224 96,405 148,782 145,587
52,882 78,492 100,792 102,927 96,772 103,058 114,663 93,285 138,248 148,482
55,394 83,082 89,846 113,619 80,886 101,249 106,463 95,433 140,691 156,730
55,618 103,538 86,902 120,468 66,598 92,156 94,648 99,394 146,532 156,282
57,119 103,250 85,188 120,328 74,735 87,841 95,754 85,457 147,088 140,270
59,993 94,602 81,991 111,758 80,446 102,414 100,427 90,007 150,643 134,738
Nov.
D e c.
58,416 62,760 92,852 103,497 87,306 103,079 109,428 96,652 88,509 92,041 115,699 126,634 105,175 109,737 95,002 105,919 138,280 153,907 138,464 143,293
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
107
GASOLINE
USD Per Gallon ----- Unleaded, New York (Jan. 1976 - date) - - - Leaded, New York (Oct. 1973 - Apr. 1991)
Volume of Trading of Unleaded Regular Gasoline Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
In Thousands of Contracts
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
543.8 449.5 590.1 563.2 613.6 612.3 561.5 619.7 693.6 721.9 825.2 701.2 795.0 744.7 1,054.1 968.7 956.1 998.7 974.6 1,000.9
570.3 605.1 766.4 876.4 921.6 809.2 942.7 1,010.9 1,169.2 1,193.5
676.2 623.2 789.3 741.5 730.0 981.0 1,019.3 909.0 1,169.0 1,252.5
623.3 618.3 681.1 721.1 927.5 1,056.5 985.2 933.7 1,203.8 1,060.2
468.0 555.5 753.1 737.7 838.5 895.0 834.5 944.0 1,194.5 1,104.7
533.8 721.4 680.6 822.0 650.6 737.3 967.8 987.5 1,027.0 1,103.2
463.8 795.4 592.0 800.4 677.2 790.8 893.6 1,021.5 1,177.7 1,341.3
469.0 664.9 654.2 751.3 641.2 581.9 867.6 943.0 1,052.9 1,221.3
527.6 613.6 670.2 705.1 635.7 664.9 1,105.0 877.1 983.7 999.0
487.6 509.9 577.8 748.8 612.1 613.3 865.9 760.8 849.0 927.9
499.3 614.6 601.7 615.7 595.1 567.2 958.4 761.6 995.9 987.4
6,312.3 7,475.1 7,992.3 8,701.2 8,645.2 9,223.5 10,979.7 11,172.1 12,777.5 13,166.4
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Production of Finished Motor Gasoline in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
7,333 7,308 7,749 7,886 7,798 7,888 8,160 7,870 7,956 8,094
7,303 7,315 7,485 7,607 7,658 7,822 8,117 7,800 7,979 8,204
7,242 7,322 7,591 7,531 8,032 8,011 8,072 7,724 8,102 8,040
7,475 7,822 8,029 8,138 8,130 8,450 8,626 8,161 8,233 8,488
7,724 8,056 8,057 8,207 8,398 8,651 8,729 8,311 8,447 8,411
7,820 8,180 8,372 8,402 8,550 8,637 8,661 8,293 8,336 8,537
7,811 7,947 8,287 8,280 8,320 8,481 8,665 8,320 8,370 8,289
7,696 8,048 8,200 8,183 8,251 8,277 8,666 8,355 8,357 8,245
7,585 8,147 8,029 8,187 8,358 8,381 8,320 8,228 7,993 8,009
7,496 8,039 7,995 8,266 8,031 8,446 8,190 8,253 8,384 7,904
7,835 7,984 8,263 8,142 8,394 8,366 8,738 8,450 8,346 8,400
7,784 8,143 8,395 8,471 8,298 8,301 8,734 8,540 8,659 8,474
7,647 7,870 8,082 8,111 8,186 8,312 8,475 8,194 8,264 8,258
Preliminary.
108
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
GASOLINE Disposition of Finished Motor Gasoline, Total Product Supplied in the U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
7,254 7,312 7,590 7,701 7,653 8,099 8,227 8,414 8,705 8,775
7,552 7,651 7,755 8,031 8,291 8,234 8,607 8,525 8,838 8,798
7,729 7,808 7,956 8,128 8,305 8,532 8,655 8,602 9,024 8,996
7,869 8,067 8,137 8,506 8,375 8,575 8,766 8,838 9,126 9,130
7,998 8,128 8,070 8,420 8,661 8,706 9,078 9,042 9,179 9,257
8,089 8,260 8,437 8,886 8,824 8,690 9,140 9,170 9,322 9,380
8,135 8,471 8,659 8,942 8,642 9,023 9,143 9,192 9,357 9,451
8,216 8,195 8,500 8,579 8,921 8,953 9,313 9,411 9,327 9,454
7,641 8,004 8,308 8,305 8,518 8,557 8,687 8,926 9,015 8,897
8,038 8,166 8,405 8,542 8,417 8,655 8,814 9,108 9,097 9,013
7,875 7,955 8,136 8,240 8,384 8,677 8,829 8,946 9,055 9,079
7,775 8,093 8,401 8,859 8,670 8,585 8,893 9,011 9,206 9,246
7,891 8,017 8,253 8,431 8,472 8,610 8,848 8,935 9,104 9,123
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Stocks of Finished Gasoline2 on Hand in the United States, at End of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
168.7 164.9 175.3 185.2 165.3 158.7 169.7 157.2 138.7 144.8
168.4 161.3 172.8 178.4 156.4 154.6 165.5 151.1 133.5 148.4
158.3 153.8 166.4 167.8 157.1 144.7 159.8 144.7 132.1 137.8
159.8 152.0 168.3 168.9 160.6 150.3 167.0 151.4 133.1 141.6
161.8 157.8 174.9 176.5 162.2 160.1 168.3 155.2 137.2 141.0
163.8 163.9 177.7 172.3 164.5 169.4 167.6 153.0 140.2 141.9
163.7 150.6 172.5 163.6 164.6 162.3 164.8 150.1 140.5 135.1
154.9 149.6 168.8 158.6 151.0 150.6 157.3 145.2 137.9 125.0
161.3 158.1 164.7 159.2 154.2 158.0 157.4 146.1 135.7 128.1
149.1 158.0 160.0 158.8 147.4 160.2 148.2 140.4 138.4 130.0
150.7 161.1 167.5 160.5 156.7 161.2 158.0 146.3 141.5 132.9
157.0 166.1 172.0 151.6 153.0 161.5 161.9 146.9 143.2 135.0
Preliminary.
2
I ncludes oxygenated and other finished.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Refiner Price of Finished Motor Gasoline to End Users1 in the U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 1
In Millions of Barrels
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
74.6 86.6 73.3 59.2 91.7 106.8 70.6 106.0 117.3 139.8
74.8 86.1 69.0 56.8 98.7 106.7 71.8 122.1 125.6 146.8
79.8 84.3 65.6 65.1 113.1 103.9 87.2 130.0 133.8 163.6
88.1 83.9 67.4 79.0 108.7 117.7 100.4 120.1 139.6 180.1
92.7 84.5 71.0 78.2 110.3 130.1 99.9 110.0 157.1 171.2
90.3 83.3 70.4 75.6 121.3 120.7 99.1 109.3 154.7 172.1
87.5 81.5 69.4 80.6 117.3 103.2 100.3 110.6 148.6 184.9
84.9 86.8 66.7 86.5 110.3 102.5 100.1 123.1 145.4 207.9
84.4 87.2 65.4 88.8 117.5 1,009.2 100.1 126.5 145.2 242.1
84.4 84.3 66.4 87.1 115.5 89.9 104.0 115.0 158.6 226.3
86.7 81.6 64.0 88.4 113.5 76.9 101.2 109.5 155.3 182.3
85.9 77.8 60.0 90.3 106.3 68.5 98.1 106.5 141.5
84.7 83.9 67.3 78.1 110.6 103.2 94.7 115.7 143.6 183.4
Excludes aviation and taxes.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
109
GASOLINE Average Retail Price of Unleaded Premium Motor Gasoline2 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
131.7 144.1 131.9 117.1 148.6 165.7 132.3 166.6 177.9 201.7
131.1 143.4 127.1 115.5 155.1 167.1 133.0 182.8 185.8 210.5
134.8 141.5 122.9 118.6 172.3 163.8 145.0 192.4 194.9 225.1
143.1 141.3 123.7 136.7 169.8 174.8 162.2 184.6 201.2 246.8
150.7 140.9 127.5 137.0 168.2 193.4 162.5 172.9 218.6 240.3
148.1 141.1 127.9 133.9 178.6 188.1 160.8 170.0 222.5 236.5
145.3 138.8 126.8 137.8 177.3 169.5 160.7 171.0 213.0 250.2
142.1 143.3 124.4 144.1 168.9 163.6 162.0 180.8 209.1 270.1
141.7 145.8 123.0 146.8 176.4 172.6 161.9 191.1 208.2 313.0
140.8 142.6 123.6 146.4 174.4 156.0 164.3 178.9 221.5 300.1
142.8 139.7 122.5 145.4 173.8 142.7 164.3 172.4 220.3 256.0
143.8 136.3 118.7 148.6 167.9 131.2 158.9 168.6 208.0 239.3
141.3 141.6 125.0 135.7 169.3 165.7 157.8 177.7 206.8 249.1
Preliminary.
2
I ncluding taxes.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Retail Price of Unleaded Regular Motor Gasoline2 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
112.9 126.1 113.1 97.2 130.1 147.2 113.9 147.3 159.2 182.3
112.4 125.5 108.2 95.5 136.9 148.4 113.0 164.1 167.2 191.8
116.2 123.5 104.1 99.1 154.1 144.7 124.1 174.8 176.6 206.5
125.1 123.1 105.2 117.7 150.6 156.4 140.7 165.9 183.3 228.3
132.3 122.6 109.2 117.8 149.8 172.9 142.1 154.2 200.9 221.6
129.9 122.9 109.4 114.8 161.7 164.0 140.4 151.4 204.1 217.6
127.2 120.5 107.9 118.9 159.3 148.2 141.2 152.4 193.9 231.6
124.0 125.3 105.2 125.5 151.0 142.7 142.3 162.8 189.8 250.3
123.4 127.7 103.3 128.0 158.2 153.1 142.2 172.8 189.1 292.7
122.7 124.2 104.2 127.4 155.9 136.2 144.9 160.3 202.9 278.5
125.0 121.3 102.8 126.4 155.5 126.3 144.8 153.5 201.0 234.3
126.0 117.7 98.6 129.8 148.9 113.1 139.4 149.4 188.2 218.6
123.1 123.4 105.9 116.5 151.0 146.1 135.8 159.1 188.0 229.5
Preliminary.
2
I ncluding taxes.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Retail Price of All-Types2 Motor Gasoline3 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
118.6 131.8 118.6 103.1 135.6 152.5 120.9 155.7 163.5 186.6
118.1 131.2 113.7 101.4 142.2 153.8 121.0 168.6 171.5 196.0
121.9 129.3 109.7 104.8 159.4 150.3 132.4 179.1 180.9 210.7
130.5 128.8 110.6 123.2 156.1 161.7 149.3 170.4 187.5 232.5
137.8 128.4 114.6 123.3 155.2 181.2 150.8 158.7 205.0 225.7
135.4 128.6 114.8 120.4 166.6 173.1 148.9 155.8 208.3 221.8
132.8 126.3 113.4 124.4 164.2 156.5 149.6 156.7 198.2 235.7
129.8 131.0 110.8 130.9 155.9 150.9 150.8 167.1 194.1 254.8
129.3 133.4 109.1 133.4 163.5 160.9 150.7 177.1 193.4 296.9
128.7 130.0 109.9 132.9 161.3 144.2 153.5 164.6 207.2 283.0
130.8 127.1 108.6 131.9 160.8 132.4 153.4 157.8 205.3 238.7
131.8 123.6 104.6 135.3 154.4 120.0 147.7 153.8 192.6 223.0
128.8 129.1 111.5 122.1 156.3 153.1 144.1 163.8 192.3 233.8
1 Preliminary. 2 Also includes types of motor oil not shown separately. U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
3
I ncluding taxes.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration,
Average Refiner Price of Finished Aviation Gasoline to End Users2 in the U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
97.6 113.7 104.3 87.1 118.7 128.5 111.8 139.7 W W
100.6 114.9 101.1 85.1 119.5 129.2 110.6 W W W
105.0 113.8 98.2 90.1 129.1 124.5 122.6 W W 201.6
111.2 114.7 98.6 101.4 124.3 134.9 129.8 W 177.4 222.2
114.4 115.7 99.9 104.2 126.8 150.9 128.9 139.8 194.4 212.8
113.5 114.6 99.0 104.1 139.8 145.1 127.3 145.1 192.3 212.1
113.7 112.5 98.4 107.9 142.6 134.6 139.2 151.9 185.4 223.0
114.4 114.6 95.9 113.2 NA 136.3 136.9 162.2 184.9 238.6
114.3 115.6 94.1 115.4 138.2 142.4 139.1 158.9 187.8 280.7
115.0 113.9 95.1 117.6 134.9 125.3 143.0 150.8 195.5 272.8
115.1 113.0 93.2 116.4 134.9 119.4 141.8 W 187.0 220.6
115.3 107.7 88.5 119.6 126.1 115.8 139.8 146.6 176.7
111.6 113.8 97.2 105.9 130.6 132.3 128.8 149.4 186.8 231.6
Preliminary.
110
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
2
Excluding taxes.
W = Withheld.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department Energy (EI A-DOE)
Gold Gold is a dense, bright yellow metallic element with a high luster. Gold is an inactive substance and is unaffected by air, heat, moisture, and most solvents. Gold has been coveted for centuries for its unique blend of rarity, beauty, and near indestructibility. The Egyptians mined gold before 2,000 BC. The first known, pure gold coin was made on the orders of King Croesus of Lydia in the sixth century BC. Gold is found in nature in quartz veins and secondary alluvial deposits as a free metal. Gold is produced from mines on every continent with the exception of Antarctica, where mining is forbidden. Because it is virtually indestructible, much of the gold that has ever been mined still exists above ground in one form or another. The largest producer of gold in the US by far is the state of Nevada, with Alaska and California running a distant second and third. Gold is a vital industrial commodity. Pure gold is one of the most malleable and ductile of all the metals. It is a good conductor of heat and electricity. Gold melts at 1,064 degrees Celsius and boils at about 2,808 degrees Celsius. The prime industrial use of gold is in electronics. Another important sector is dental gold where it has been used for almost 3,000 years. Other applications for gold include decorative gold leaf, reflective glass, and jewelry. In 1792, the United States first assigned a formal monetary role for gold when Congress put the nation’s currency on a bimetallic standard, backing it with gold and silver. Under the gold standard, the US government was willing to exchange its paper currency for a set amount of gold, meaning the paper currency was backed by a physical asset with real value. However, President Nixon in 1971 severed the convertibility between the US dollar and gold, which led to the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international payments system. Since then, the prices of gold and of paper currencies have floated freely. US and other central banks now hold physical gold reserves primarily as a store of wealth. Gold futures and options are traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures are traded on the Bolsa de Mercadorias and Futuros (BM&F) and on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Korea Futures Exchange (KOFEX). The Nymex gold futures contract calls for the delivery of 100 troy ounces of gold (0.995 fineness), and the contract trades
World Mine Production of Gold 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
253,504 289,530 314,500 310,070 301,070 296,410 285,030 273,010 282,000 259,000
64,424 60,011 58,488 49,567 52,634 50,393 42,884 41,730 40,438 40,500
152,032 166,378 171,479 165,599 157,617 156,207 158,875 151,904 140,861 128,504
44,585 53,174 49,459 44,980 48,069 54,143 42,673 38,688 38,954 40,000
140,000 145,000 175,000 178,000 173,000 180,000 185,000 192,000 205,000 215,000
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Prices – Nymex gold futures prices in 2005 extended the rally that began in 2001 and posted a new 18-year high of $538.50 in December 2005, closing the year up +18% yr/ yr at $518.90. Unlike 2002-04, when the gold rally was driven mainly by weakness in the dollar, gold in 2005 rallied even in the face of dollar strength due to bullish fundamentals of its own, namely strong demand and limited supply. World gold mine production has been stagnant since 2000 while gold demand soared in 2005. World investment and jewelry demand for gold in the first three quarters of 2005 was very strong at +12% in tonnage terms and +20% in dollar terms, according to the World Gold Council. Supply – World mine production of gold rose +0.8% yr/ yr to 2.450 million kilograms in 2005, which was just below the record high of 2.600 million kilograms in 2001 (1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces). The world’s largest producers of gold are South Africa with 12.2% of world production in 2005, followed by Australia (10.4%), the US (10.2%), China (9.2%), Russia (6.7%), and Canada (4.7%). Gold mine production has been moving lower in most major gold-producing countries such as South Africa, Australia, Canada and the US. South Africa’s production of 300,000 kilograms in 2005 was down 12.0% yr/yr and was less than half the production levels above 600,000 kilograms seen in the 1980s and early 1990s. However, China’s gold production in 2005 rose +4.7% to a record 225,000 kilograms and is twice the level seen 15 years ago. US gold mine production fell by 3.1% yr/yr in 2005 to 250,000 kilograms, which was the lowest production level since 1988. US refinery production of gold from domestic and foreign ore sources in 2005 rose by +3.6% yr/yr to 230,000 kilograms. US refinery production of gold from secondary scrap sources in 2005 rose by +8.7% yr/yr to 100,000 kilograms. Demand – US consumption of gold in 2005 rose +5.4% yr/yr to 195,000 kilograms, which was a 6-year high. The most recent data available from the early 1990s showed that 71% of gold demand came from jewelry and the arts, 22% from industrial uses, and 7% from dental uses. Trade – US exports of gold (excluding coinage) in 2005 rose by +12.8% yr/yr to 290,000 kilograms from the 16-year low of 257,000 kilograms seen in 2004. US imports of gold for consumption in 2005 rose +11.3% yr/yr to 315,000 kilograms, which was a 19-year high.
In Kilograms (1 Kilogram = 32.1507 Troy Ounces)
Australia
Year
in terms of dollars and cents per troy ounce.
Ghana
IndoPapua nesia N. Guinea
53,087 64,031 49,211 83,564 54,662 86,927 72,541 124,018 79,946 127,184 72,100 124,596 68,341 166,091 69,271 142,238 69,600 141,019 60,000 92,936
53,405 51,119 45,418 61,641 65,747 74,540 67,043 65,200 64,000 73,000
Russia
South Africa
United States
Uzbekistan
World Total
132,170 123,300 124,000 114,900 125,870 143,000 152,500 168,411 170,068 169,237
523,809 496,846 491,680 465,100 451,300 430,800 394,800 395,173 375,787 341,485
317,000 326,000 362,000 366,000 341,000 353,000 335,000 298,000 277,000 258,000
65,000 72,000 81,700 80,000 85,000 85,000 87,000 90,000 90,000 93,000
2,230,000 2,290,000 2,450,000 2,500,000 2,570,000 2,570,000 2,560,000 2,550,000 2,550,000 2,430,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
111
GOLD
USD Per Troy Ounce ----- Bullion, London (1833 - 1939) Bullion, London (Jan. 1940 - Feb. 1968) Handy & Harman, N.Y. (Mar. 1968 - May 1990) Composite (June 1990 - date)
Salient Statistics of Gold in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
Mine Production
317,000 326,000 362,000 366,000 341,000 353,000 335,000 298,000 277,000 258,000
In Kilograms (1 Kilogram = 32.1507 Troy Ounces)
Refinery Production Exports Imports Domestic Secondary (Old (Excluding for ConValue & Foreign Scrap) Coinage) sumption Ores Million $
3,950.0 4,090.0 3,870.0 3,480.0 3,070.0 3,180.0 2,940.0 2,980.0 3,250.0 3,400.0
NA NA 347,000 NA NA 471,000 270,000 100,000 476,000 277,000 163,000 522,000 265,000 143,000 523,000 197,000 81,600 547,000 191,000 82,700 489,000 196,000 78,100 257,000 194,000 89,100 352,000 222,000 91,700 257,000
126,000 159,000 209,000 278,000 221,000 223,000 194,000 217,000 249,000 283,000
---------- Stocks, Dec. 31 ----------------------- Consumption --------------Treasury Official DeparWorld Futures Jewelry & Arts Total tment3 Exchange Industry Reserves4 Dental Industrial5
8,140,000 45,400 NA 8,140,000 20,700 NA 8,140,000 15,200 17,300 8,130,000 25,200 16,600 8,170,000 37,900 14,700 8,140,000 52,900 9,300 8,120,000 38,000 3,670 8,140,000 63,900 3,490 8,140,000 97,100 3,590 8,140,000 180,000 1,080
34,600 34,400 34,000 33,600 33,500 33,000 33,000 32,200 31,800 31,400
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA 137,000 NA 219,000 NA 245,000 183,000 179,000 163,000 183,000 185,000
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes gold in Exchange Stabilization Fund. 4 Held by market economy country central banks and governments andinternational monetary orgainzations. 5 I ncluding space and defense. NA = Not available. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Monthly Average Gold Price (Handy & Harman) in New York
In Dollars Per Troy Ounce
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
399.59 355.10 289.18 287.05 284.26 265.58 281.47 356.91 414.09 424.39
404.73 346.71 297.49 287.22 299.60 261.99 295.40 359.60 404.52 423.15
396.21 351.67 295.90 285.96 286.39 263.03 294.06 340.55 405.99 433.91
392.96 344.47 308.40 282.45 279.75 260.56 302.68 328.25 403.96 429.23
391.98 343.75 299.39 276.94 275.10 272.07 314.08 355.03 383.94 422.53
385.58 340.75 292.31 261.31 285.73 270.23 321.81 356.35 392.73 430.66
383.69 324.08 292.79 255.81 281.01 267.53 313.51 351.01 398.08 424.33
387.43 324.03 283.76 256.56 274.44 272.40 310.18 359.91 400.86 438.03
382.97 322.74 289.01 265.23 273.53 283.78 319.49 379.07 405.45 456.52
381.07 324.87 295.92 310.72 270.00 283.06 316.56 378.92 420.46 469.90
378.46 307.10 293.89 292.74 266.05 276.49 319.14 389.13 438.21 474.87
369.02 288.65 291.29 283.69 271.68 275.98 333.21 407.44 442.20 510.01
387.81 331.16 294.12 278.81 278.96 271.06 310.13 363.51 409.21 444.79
Preliminary.
112
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
GOLD
Average Open Interest of Gold in New York (NYMEX) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
210,695 199,710 180,994 179,726 149,606 134,401 124,222 221,495 283,813 277,112
226,160 190,524 171,507 185,345 158,026 142,673 142,763 210,247 238,816 263,191
203,968 167,595 183,358 178,456 160,325 126,558 142,638 186,656 256,873 301,758
201,826 157,176 180,267 198,202 155,188 120,111 159,892 176,033 274,898 283,546
203,056 160,512 158,157 193,978 162,516 118,426 190,845 191,459 250,963 277,469
192,423 170,640 172,250 207,122 144,099 116,788 174,123 198,808 225,001 275,508
185,374 207,352 169,180 205,687 133,087 114,098 166,042 199,741 239,579 268,068
159,435 198,099 192,623 193,023 126,893 116,687 146,596 224,694 237,940 304,000
185,907 201,267 183,351 206,186 132,731 125,907 167,620 284,906 259,181 339,269
192,606 188,365 186,680 216,034 132,546 125,639 162,456 258,238 306,522 356,526
187,145 212,757 164,304 189,433 134,630 114,238 164,581 275,346 344,665 334,562
185,994 188,558 153,063 156,754 113,830 111,622 191,594 277,183 329,669 331,527
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
Volume of Trading of Gold Futures in New York (NYMEX) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,384.7 1,102.8 1,078.2 860.8 616.4 755.2 733.6 1,260.1 1,581.3 1,502.3
987.5 830.2 534.2 517.4 833.5 483.3 613.2 1,007.5 962.6 944.4
943.6 899.4 877.2 1,147.6 767.7 766.6 717.7 987.6 1,649.5 1,599.0
647.1 508.5 698.1 561.1 362.2 438.1 559.8 667.8 1,202.9 858.1
858.5 762.1 845.2 1,069.6 701.5 971.6 1,089.6 1,160.3 1,344.8 1,451.7
582.1 522.7 718.7 573.6 625.5 481.4 775.5 824.3 960.6 1,240.0
749.8 1,147.5 712.4 964.3 532.5 578.3 998.9 1,191.7 1,405.0 1,432.4
541.9 667.8 680.0 709.6 374.4 547.4 585.8 837.5 953.0 1,234.4
541.9 715.8 851.7 1,067.3 403.2 341.0 621.8 1,034.0 944.9 1,380.2
528.5 988.0 769.6 993.8 424.9 481.4 669.0 1,091.3 1,067.2 1,174.0
795.2 808.8 705.6 674.7 625.7 573.6 844.8 1,397.3 1,864.7 1,852.7
458.8 588.1 519.0 436.1 349.0 367.4 808.5 776.3 1,053.2 1,221.5
8,694.5 9,541.9 8,990.1 9,575.8 6,643.5 6,785.3 9,018.2 12,235.5 14,989.6 15,890.6
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
113
GOLD Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) Depository Warehouse Stocks of Gold Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Troy Ounces
Jan. 1
F eb. 1
Mar. 1
Apr. 1
May 1
June 1
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
1,459.8 665.8 488.4 809.5 1,219.4 1,701.2 1,220.3 2,056.5 3,122.2 5,795.6
1,868.5 837.1 445.9 809.1 1,392.9 1,775.3 1,186.7 2,159.8 3,324.0 5,962.6
1,412.0 582.9 480.9 859.7 1,373.9 1,653.7 1,285.7 2,262.4 3,476.9 5,913.9
1,428.7 1,000.1 719.8 1,034.0 1,968.1 1,302.4 1,322.3 2,383.9 3,677.1 5,960.7
1,335.4 946.0 658.5 895.9 1,966.7 858.3 1,372.3 2,460.7 4,142.0 6,156.7
1,710.6 878.2 1,077.3 879.3 1,900.6 864.2 1,764.1 2,474.9 4,391.8 6,036.6
1,263.0 850.2 1,054.7 818.3 1,890.1 891.3 1,850.7 2,675.1 4,399.6 5,751.0
1,273.0 914.0 1,092.3 936.1 2,012.6 901.1 1,835.6 2,743.8 4,657.0 5,713.8
1,401.5 733.1 911.3 1,198.2 1,961.1 793.6 1,915.0 2,729.4 4,880.1 6,008.5
1,283.3 894.4 958.4 928.0 1,918.1 824.3 1,892.4 2,822.6 5,122.4 6,737.1
1,060.0 614.7 827.1 874.4 1,865.5 1,164.6 1,994.9 2,912.1 5,334.7 6,351.5
1,103.7 760.8 819.3 1,137.4 1,863.6 1,425.7 2,046.5 3,058.9 5,374.3 6,614.3
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
C en tral Go ld B an k R eserves
In Millions of Troy Ounces Bank for Int'l SettleIMF2 ments
-------------------------------------------------------- In d u strial C o u n tries -------------------------------------------------------Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 1
Germany
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 119.0 111.5 111.5 112.0
66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 83.4 78.8 78.8 79.0
24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.6 24.6
43.9 35.1 34.8 34.8 34.8 27.1 33.8 31.6 29.3 29.0
Belgi um Canada France
25.0 25.0 25.0 20.5 15.3 15.3 9.5 8.3 8.3 8.0
P reliminary.
2
9.9 81.9 6.1 81.9 3.9 81.9 3.4 81.9 3.1 81.9 3.1 81.9 2.5 102.4 1.8 97.2 1.2 97.3 1.2 97.0
I n t e r n a t io n a l M o n e t a r y F u n d .
Swi terUni ted land Ki ngdom
83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 78.8 74.6
18.6 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 23.0 20.6 16.5 13.4
Montana
Nevada
Alaska
Colorado
South Dakota
New Mexico
1,920 1,740 2,140 1,840 786 442 W W W W
25,600 23,800 24,200 18,700 17,500 17,200 13,800 9,180 4,270 3,260
8,850 7,410 7,490 W W W W W W W
12,400 9,110 10,200 8,200 7,540 9,310 W W W W
210,000 213,000 243,000 273,000 9,310 268,000 253,000 240,000 227,000 216,000
4,410 5,020 18,400 18,300 16,200 15,600 16,700 W W W
W W W W W W W W W W
W W 16,400 12,100 10,300 8,230 W W W W
W W W W W W W W W W
W = Withheld proprietary data, included in Other States.
------------------------ Jew elry and the Arts -----------------------Gold-Filled ElectroKarat & Other plating Gold Total
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1 9 9 41 19951 19961 Preliminary.
114
9,256 7,598 7,364 8,132 3,848 3,546 3,530 3,650 NA NA
3,133 1,469 1,283 429 373 581 373 369 NA NA
100.3 108.1 106.6 111.9 115.5 115.8 115.7 112.9 112.0 111.3
103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4
6.8 8.6 7.0 7.3 6.6 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5
1,129.9 1,123.0 1,116.2 1,113.2 1,108.2 1,089.7 1,076.1 1,074.5 1,060.1 1,054.7
In Kilograms
Idaho
58,635 57,959 60,877 69,952 79,875 79,381 61,700 49,700 NA NA
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
71,024 67,027 69,524 78,514 84,096 83,508 65,600 53,700 NA NA
Other States
Total
W 53,820 W 57,920 W 40,170 W 33,860 W 279,364 W 34,218 W 51,500 W 48,820 W 45,730 W 38,740
317,000 318,000 362,000 366,000 341,000 353,000 335,000 298,000 277,000 258,000
Utah
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumption of Gold, By End-Use in the United States
1
42.0 42.4 42.4 41.9 42.5 42.3 41.6 41.2 41.6 42.3
California
Preliminary.
Year
877.4 860.4 856.9 848.7 840.1 821.9 809.0 810.4 796.5 791.3
Arizona
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
261.8 261.8 261.7 261.7 261.7 261.6 261.6 261.7 261.6 261.6
World Total
S ource: American Met al Market (AMM)
Mine Production of Recoverable Gold in the United States Year
DeveUni ted Industri al Deve- lopi ng States Total lopi ng Oi l Non-Oi l
Dental
6,944 7,576 7,927 8,700 8,485 6,543 6,170 5,430 NA NA
In Kilograms --------------------------------- Industrial --------------------------------Gold-Filled ElectroKarat & Other plating Gold Total
21,010 21,034 15,723 12,725 8,102 8,802 9,470 7,450 NA NA
12,343 15,088 20,684 17,251 12,624 10,476 9,090 9,470 NA NA
1,892 1,104 1,215 1,020 1,068 1,082 1,100 96 NA NA
35,245 37,226 37,621 30,996 21,793 20,360 19,700 17,000 NA NA
Grand Total
113,319 111,836 115,078 118,216 114,375 110,410 91,400 76,100 NA NA
GOLD
115
Grain Sorghum but remained well above the 52.570 million metric ton crop in 2002-03 which was the smallest crop since 1968-69. US grain sorghum production in 2005-06 fell by -13.1% yr/yr to 394.000 million bushels. Sorghum acreage harvested in 2005-06 fell -12.0% to 5.736 million acres, which was the smallest sorghum acreage harvested since the 1950s. Yield was excellent in 2005-06 with 68.7 bushels per acre, but down from last year’s 10-year high of 69.8.
Grain sorghums include milo, kafir, durra, feterita, and kaoliang. Grain sorghums are tolerant of drought by going into dormancy during dry and hot conditions and then resuming growth as conditions improve. Grain sorghums are a staple food in China, India, and Africa but in the US they are mainly used as livestock feed. The two key US producing states are Texas and Kansas, each with about one-third of total US production. US sorghum production has become more popular with the breeding of dwarf grain sorghum hybrids which are only about 3 feet tall (versus up to 10 feet tall for wild sorghum) and are easier to harvest with a combine. The U.S. sorghum crop year begins September 1.
Demand – World utilization (consumption) of grain sorghum in the 2005-06 marketing year fell -1.5% to 57.272 million metric tons, but that is still up from the 53.638 million metric ton utilization level seen in 2002-03, which was the lowest since 1967-68.
Prices – The monthly average price for sorghum grain received by US farmers in the 2004-05 marketing year (Sep 04-Aug 05) fell by –26.0% yr/yr to $3.27 per hundred pounds, down from the previous year’s 8-year high. Sorghum prices in the first four months of the 2005-06 marketing year (annualized through January 2006) fell another –6.5% to an average of $3.06 per hundred pounds. The value of US grain sorghum production in the 2004-05 marketing year (latest data available) was $839.2 million.
Trade – World exports of sorghum in the 2005-06 marketing year fell –0.9% to 5.348 million metric tons, which is a 34-year low. US exports in 2005-06 fell by –7.6% yr/yr to 4.318 million metric tons, and accounted for 81% of total world exports. Argentina is the world’s other major exporter with 300,000 metric tons of exports in 2005-06, accounting for 6% of world exports. Major world importers are Mexico with 64% of world imports and Japan with 25% of world imports.
Supply – World production of sorghum in the 2005-06 marketing year fell by –0.4% to 57.615 million metric tons,
World Supply and Demand Grain Sorghum Year
------------------ Exports ------------------ ------------------ Imports -----------------ArgenNonUnactina U.S. U.S. Total Japan Mexico counted Total
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
439 419 639 192 325 300
Preliminary.
2
1,333 980 1,028 1,490 720 1,030
6,009 6,142 4,681 5,049 4,673 4,318
Estimate.
3
7,342 7,122 5,709 6,539 5,393 5,348
Forecast.
1,983 1,776 1,562 1,434 1,374 1,350
5,037 4,837 3,384 3,002 2,912 3,500
57 202 36 13 145
7,600 7,034 5,511 6,519 5,206 5,436
Total ----------------- Utiliz ation ----------------- ------ Ending Stocks -----ProNonduction China Mexico U.S. Total U.S. U.S. Total
53,787 58,320 52,728 58,908 57,828 57,615
2,561 2,700 2,825 3,000 2,400 2,400
11,200 10,750 9,900 9,800 9,300 9,600
6,543 6,427 4,939 5,638 6,257 5,207
55,304 57,193 53,449 58,071 58,153 57,272
2,695 3,246 2,783 3,841 2,735 2,686
1,061 1,549 1,093 852 1,446 1,926
3,756 4,795 3,876 4,693 4,181 4,612
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Grain Sorghum in the United States
Year
Acreage ------------------------------- For Grain ------------------------------- ------------- For Silage ------------- --------------- Sorghum Grain Stocks --------------Planted4 ProValue Acreage Pro- Yield Per ---------- Dec. 1 ---------- --------- June 1 --------for All Acreage of Pro- Harvested duction Yield Per Price in duction Harvested Purposes Harvested 1,000 Harvested On Farms Off Farms On Farms Off Farms 1,000 duction Acre Cents Per 1,000 ----- 1,000 Acres ----Acre -------------------- 1,000 Bushels ---------------------Tons Acres Bushel Million $ Bushels Bushels
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
9,195 10,252 9,589 9,420 7,486 6,454
Preliminary.
2
7,726 8,584 7,125 7,798 6,517 5,736
Estimate.
3
470,526 514,524 360,713 411,237 453,650 394,000
Forecast.
60.9 189 59.9 194 50.6 232 52.7 239 69.8 179 68.7 155-185 NA = Not available.
847.1 979.8 855.1 965.0 843.5 715.3
278 336 408 343 352 311
2,932 3,728 3,913 3,552 4,763 4,218
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Arkansas
Colorado
Illinois
9,940 14,620 17,710 17,220 4,704 5,146
6,720 9,460 1,800 4,320 5,400 3,240
8,075 8,085 6,308 8,610 8,938 7,820
Preliminary.
116
Kansas Louisiana
188,800 232,500 135,000 130,500 220,400 187,500
17,845 17,850 13,365 14,025 5,200 8,670
74,300 72,400 53,600 45,200 78,700 55,000
187,681 241,477 178,252 190,736 203,505 233,891
19,000 17,300 11,150 7,650 16,000
57,411 88,178 70,744 72,944 97,170
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of All Sorghum for Grain in the United States, by States Year
10.5 11.1 9.6 10.4 13.5 13.6
Missi ssi p p i
6,708 7,134 6,237 6,132 1,422
In Thousands of Bushels
Missouri Nebraska
New Mexico Oklahoma
24,840 20,680 16,150 16,170 15,660 9,230
1,625 6,300 2,450 1,674 4,232 4,050
35,000 35,700 16,000 31,000 33,615 21,250
13,680 15,120 13,500 9,250 14,400 11,880
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
South Dakota
Texas
Total
5,880 8,850 3,060 6,750 6,300 7,040
143,350 130,000 122,400 153,900 127,100 112,100
470,526 514,524 360,713 411,237 453,650 394,000
GRAIN SORGHUM Grain Sorghum Quarterly Supply and Disappearance in the United States
In Millions of Bushels
----------------------------------- Disappearance ---------------------------------------------------- Domestic Use -------------------
Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
F ood ------------------------- Supply ------------------------Beginning ProTotal Alcohol & Stocks duction Imports Supply Industrial
2002-3 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2003-04 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2004-051 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2005-062 Sept.-Nov.
61.0 61.0 232.0 163.0 82.0 43.0 43.0 235.9 158.7 80.6 33.6 33.6 282.2 203.5 113.2 57.0 56.9
361.0 361.0 ---------411.2 411.2 ---------453.7 453.7 ---------394.0 393.9
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 0
422.0 422.0 232.0 163.0 82.0 454.3 454.3 235.9 158.7 80.6 487.2 487.2 282.2 203.5 113.2 451.0 450.8
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Uncommitted inventory. Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
S eed
F eed & Residual
Total
Export
170.0 134.0 18.0 33.0 -14.0 182.1 148.6 11.4 21.1 1.1 191.3 147.5 10.0 25.0 8.9 150.0 103.2
379.0 190.0 69.0 81.0 39.0 420.7 218.3 77.3 78.1 47.1 430.3 205.0 78.7 90.4 56.2 375.0 161.9
184.0 51.0 46.0 40.0 48.0 198.8 60.8 55.9 46.5 35.6 184.0 44.0 55.3 51.2 33.6 170.0 40.0
24.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 6.0 39.9 9.0 10.0 10.5 10.4 55.0 13.6 13.4 14.2 13.8 55.0 18.7 4
----------- Ending Stocks ----------Gov't Privately Total Total Owned3 Owned4 Stocks
563.0 241.0 115.0 121.0 87.0 619.5 279.1 133.2 124.6 82.6 614.3 249.0 134.0 141.5 89.8 545.0 201.9
I ncludes quantity under loan & farmer-owned reserve.
Average Price of Sorghum Grain, No. 2, Yellow in Kansas City
43.0 232.0 163.0 82.0 43.0 33.6 235.9 158.7 80.6 33.6 56.9 282.2 203.5 113.2 56.9 76.0 288.9
Source: Economic Research
In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds (Cwt.)
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
2.98 2.97 2.67 3.55 4.86 4.15 3.45 3.22
3.17 2.71 3.14 3.38 4.70 4.18 3.21 3.08
3.45 2.75 3.41 3.44 4.72 4.50 3.17 3.30
3.41 2.87 3.66 3.59 4.62 4.61 3.21 3.30
3.41 3.20 3.64 3.61 4.52 4.71 3.13
3.43 3.28 3.63 3.55 4.43 4.88 3.23
3.48 3.51 3.56 3.58 4.07 5.18 3.44
3.37 3.53 3.45 3.47 4.24 5.37 3.30
3.35 3.75 3.30 3.44 4.12 4.94 3.30
3.32 3.18 3.26 3.57 4.06 4.67 3.56
2.92 2.71 3.59 3.97 3.71 3.92 3.90
2.92 2.76 3.65 4.60 3.71 3.75 3.53
3.30 3.10 3.41 3.65 4.31 4.57 3.37 3.23
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Exports of Grain Sorghum, by Country of Destination from the United States Year Beginning Oct. 1
Canada
Ecuador
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052
3,484 4,061 4,170 4,912 5,921 8,025 5,276
0 0 0 0 91 210 0
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Israel
Ja p a n
Jordan
Mexico
South Africa
0 92,335 21,940 167,816 24,117 82,776 0 25,082 48,000 65,725 54,320 105,170 53,540 26,654
1,480,220 1,045,253 853,211 1,233,799 1,035,634 889,054 1,088,171
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3,290,663 4,773,760 4,864,414 4,695,814 3,150,014 2,814,386 2,864,835
0 12,857 0 37,272 43,918 156 2,000
Ethiopia
In Metric Tons Sudan
Turkey
World Total
196,110 0 178,829 0 0 0 8,193 0 266,892 5,880 267,691 11,430 167,896 110,327
101 0 0 0 0 0 0
5,194,028 6,297,344 5,866,340 6,014,304 4,690,875 4,626,171 4,461,807
Spain
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Grain Sorghum Price Support Program and Market Prices in the United States
Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042
------------------------------------ Price Support Operations -----------------------------------Findley B a si c Owned by ---- Price Support ---% of ProAquired Target Loan Loan C C C at Quantity duction by CCC Year End Price Rate Rate ----------------------- Million Cw t. ---------------------- ------------- $ Per Bushel -------------
9.8 12.0 9.6 8.6 9.6 3.7 3.5
2.8 4.1 2.9 3.3 3.3 1.8 1.5
.1 .6 1.0 .4 .1 0 0
.1 .2 ------.1 0 0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NA NA NA NA NA 2.54 2.54
1.76 1.74 1.74 1.71 1.71 1.98 1.98
Partici- ------------ No. 2 Yellow ($ Per Cw t.) -----------Effective Texas pation B a se 3 High Los Gulf Kansas Rate4 Million Plains Angeles Ports City Acres % of Base
13.1 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.6 12.1 12.1
98.8 98.8 98.8 -------------
4.11 3.29 3.10 3.41 3.65 4.34 4.57
4.72 3.78 3.36 3.94 4.05 4.69 5.01
----------------------
4.76 3.97 3.79 4.22 4.34 5.01 5.36
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 National effective crop acreage base as determined by ASCS. 4 Percentage of effective base acres enrolled in acreage 5 reduction programs. Beginning with the 1996-7 marketing year, target prices are no longer applicable. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
117
Hay Hay is a catchall term for forage plants, typically grasses such as timothy and Sudan-grass, and legumes such as alfalfa and clover. Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures account for nearly half of all hay production. Hay is generally used to make cured feed for livestock. Curing, which is the proper drying of hay, is necessary to prevent spoilage. Hay, when properly cured, contains about 20% moisture. If hay is dried excessively, however, there is a loss of protein, which makes it less effective as livestock feed. Hay is harvested in virtually all of the lower 48 states.
in 1997-98. The farm production value of hay produced in 2004-05 was $12.197 million. Supply – US hay production in 2005-06 fell –3.1% yr/ yr to 152.9 million tons. US farmers harvested 61.723 million acres of hay in 2005-06, down –0.3% yr/yr. The yield in 2004-05 was 2.48 tons per acre, down from last year’s record high of 2.55. US carryover (May 1) in 2004-05 (latest data available) rose +17.5% to 25.9 million tons. The largest hay producing states in the US are Texas (with 7.8% of US hay production in 2004), California (5.7%), Missouri (6.0%), Iowa (4.0%), Nebraska (3.9%), Oklahoma (3.8%), Minnesota (3.7%), Idaho (3.4%), and South Dakota (2.3%).
Prices – The average monthly price of hay received by US farmers rose by +8.3% yr/yr to $98.60 per ton in the first eight months of the 2005-06 marketing year (i.e., May 2005 through December 2005). The record high is $100.00 posted
Salient Statistics of All Hay in the United States Crop Year Beginning May 1
Acres Harvested 1,000 Acres
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
59,854 63,521 63,942 63,383 61,916 61,649
D i sa p Yield Supply pearance Pro- Carryover D i sa p P er Per Animal Unit May 1 pearance Acre duction Tons ---------- Millions of Tons ---------- -------- In Tons --------
2.54 2.47 2.34 2.49 2.55 2.44
151.9 156.8 149.5 157.6 158.2 150.6
28.8 21.1 22.5 22.0 25.9 27.8
161.3 155.1 149.9 152.7
2.52 2.46 2.39 2.52 2.60
2.23 2.15 2.08 2.16
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Roughage-consuming animal units fed annually. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of All Hay in the United States, by States Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
California
Idaho
8,568 8,915 9,774 9,485 9,220 8,935
5,292 4,938 5,288 4,950 5,350 5,382
Preliminary.
Iowa
Minnesota
6,000 5,565 5,645 5,515 6,240 5,860
6,840 6,195 5,810 5,245 5,895 6,055
Retail Price Paid by Farmers -------------- for Seed, April 15 -------------Farm Farm ProAlfalfa Red Sudanduction Price Clover Grass Value (Certified) Timothy $ P er Ton Million $ --------------- Dollars Per Cw t. ---------------
Animal Units F ed3 Millions
72.4 72.1 72.0 70.7 70.8
84.6 96.5 93.7 85.7 91.6 97.5
11,417 12,597 12,338 12,007 12,197
NA = Not available.
277.00 278.00 280.00 286.00 291.00
115.00 105.00 90.00 107.00 110.00
143.00 132.00 130.00 144.00 145.00
53.00 53.00 56.00 55.30 55.60
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Thousands of Tons
Missouri
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Total
6,657 7,853 8,323 8,122 9,420 6,718
6,055 7,578 5,750 7,600 6,423 6,945
5,110 5,065 3,920 4,598 3,666 5,646
4,521 4,275 3,400 3,974 3,232 3,630
4,659 4,025 5,985 5,304 5,958 5,084
7,393 9,150 4,815 7,210 6,870 7,560
8,880 10,837 13,410 12,388 12,295 9,140
6,000 4,790 5,340 4,380 4,880 4,470
151,921 156,764 149,467 157,585 158,247 150,590
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Hay Production and Farm Stocks in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------------------------------ Production ---------------------------------------------------------------------Year
Alfalfa & Mixtures
All Others
All Hay
Corn for Silage1
Sorghum Silage1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052
80,347 80,327 83,014 76,273 75,383 75,771
71,574 76,437 76,453 81,312 82,391 74,819
151,921 156,764 149,467 157,585 158,247 150,590
102,156 102,077 102,293 107,378 107,336 106,311
2,773 3,728 3,913 3,552 4,763 4,218
1
Not included in all tame hay.
2
Preliminary.
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
118
May 1
D e c. 1
28,848 21,106 22,458 22,013 25,947 27,758
106,412 110,384 102,978 111,027 114,516 105,056
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Mid-Month Price Received by Farmers for All Hay (Baled) in the United States Year
----------------- Farm Stocks -----------------
In Dollars Per Ton
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
Average2
91.0 106.0 103.0 98.0 101.0 107.0
82.5 95.8 95.8 94.6 95.2 102.0
80.2 96.3 93.6 89.0 90.4 99.7
80.5 97.4 92.4 85.0 92.2 99.7
83.0 99.0 93.0 84.4 91.4 99.0
84.9 98.0 93.8 83.7 92.8 97.7
84.0 95.9 93.2 81.5 88.7 91.7
84.9 95.6 91.1 80.6 86.0 92.0
85.2 91.7 91.4 80.1 87.8 91.2
86.8 91.7 91.4 81.2 88.2 95.0
87.2 92.3 92.8 81.8 89.1
94.8 98.3 92.9 88.9 96.9
85.4 96.5 93.7 85.7 91.6 97.5
2
Marketing year average.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Heating Oil Heating oil is a heavy fuel oil that is derived from crude oil. Heating oil is also known as No. 2 fuel oil and accounts for about 25% of the yield from a barrel of crude oil. That is the second largest “cut” after gasoline. The price to consumers of home heating oil is generally comprised of 42% for crude oil, 12% for refining costs, and 46% for marketing and distribution costs (Source: EIA’s Petroleum Marketing Monthly, 2001). Generally, a $1 increase in the price of crude oil translates into a 2.5-cent per gallon rise in heating oil. Because of this, heating oil prices are highly correlated with crude oil prices, although heating oil prices are also subject to swift supply and demand shifts due to weather changes or refinery shutdowns. The primary use for heating oil is for residential heating. In the US, approximately 8.1 million households use heating oil as their main heating fuel. Most of the demand for heating oil occurs from October through March. The Northeast region, which includes the New England and the Central Atlantic States, is most reliant on heating oil. This region consumes approximately 70% of US heating oil. However, demand for heating oil has been dropping as households switch to a more convenient heating source like natural gas. In fact, demand for heating oil is down by about 10 billion gallons/year from its peak use in 1976 (Source: American Petroleum Institute). Refineries produce approximately 85% of US heating oil as part of the “distillate fuel oil” product family, which includes heating oil and diesel fuel. The remainder of US heating oil is imported from Canada, the Virgin Islands, and Venezuela. Recently, a team of Purdue University researchers developed a way to make home heating oil from a mixture of soybean oil and conventional fuel oil. The oil blend is made by replacing 20% of the fuel oil with soybean oil, potentially saving 1.3 billion gallons of fuel oil per year. This soybean heating oil can be used in conventional furnaces without altering existing equipment. The soybean heating oil is relatively easy to produce and creates no sulfur emissions. The “crack-spread” is the processing margin earned when refiners buy crude oil and refine it into heating oil and gasoline. The crack-spread ratio commonly used in the industry is the 3-2-1, which involves buying 1 heating oil contract and 2 gasoline futures contracts, and then selling 3 crude oil contracts. As long as the crack spread is positive, it
Average Price of #2 Heating Oil Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
is profitable for refiners to buy crude oil and refine it into products. The NYMEX has a crack-spread calculator on their web site at www.NYMEX.com. Heating oil futures and options trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The heating oil futures contract calls for the delivery of 1,000 barrels of fungible No. 2 heating oil in the New York harbor. In London, gas/oil futures and options are traded on the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Prices – NYMEX heating oil futures prices on the nearest-futures chart started the year 2005 at around $1.20 per gallon but steadily rallied and posted a new record high of $2.2100 in September. Heating oil prices then backed off to close the year at $1.7935. Supply – US production of distillate fuel oil in 2005 (through September, annualized) rose by +4.4% yr/yr to 3.981 million barrels per day, which was a new record high. Stocks of distillate fuel oil in August 2005, the latest reporting month, were 132.0 million barrels, up from 122 million barrels in August 2004. US production of residual fuel in 2005 (through September, annualized) fell by –6.6% yr/yr to 576,000 barrels per day, which less than half the production levels of well over 1 million barrels per day produced in the 1970s. US stocks of residual fuel oil as of August 2005 fell slightly to 37.4 million barrels from 37.5 million barrels a year earlier. Demand – US usage of distillate fuel oil in 2004 (through September, annualized) rose +0.4% yr/yr to 4.077 million barrels per day, which was a new record high. That figure includes both heating oil and diesel fuel usage. Trade – US imports of distillate fuel oil in 2005 (through September, annualized) fell -16.5% to 272,000 barrels per day from the 3-decade high of 344,000 barrels per day seen in 2001. US exports of distillate fuel oil in 2005 (through September, annualized) rose by +42.9% yr/yr to 156,000 barrels per day, which was the highest level since 173,000 barrels per day in 2000. US imports of residual fuel oil in 2004 rose +30.3% yr/yr to 426,000 barrels per day, which was less than a third of the levels of over 1 million barrels per day seen back in the 1970s. US exports of residual fuel oil in 2004 rose +4.1% to 205,000 barrels per day, which was moderately below the record high of 226,000 barrels per day seen in 1991.
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
55.64 69.90 46.59 33.41 91.32 84.30 53.52 90.09 97.91 132.01
61.24 61.15 44.26 30.48 94.37 78.55 54.03 112.84 91.19 134.26
65.19 54.83 42.12 38.74 77.29 74.17 63.52 99.70 90.88 155.44
67.90 57.74 42.97 43.07 75.32 78.02 66.60 79.75 91.87 152.35
57.59 56.31 41.07 41.68 75.88 77.11 66.54 74.31 101.65 140.89
51.56 52.32 37.88 43.36 78.32 75.74 64.50 75.95 99.41 161.20
55.58 53.11 36.24 50.02 78.14 69.88 67.79 79.03 109.42 163.71
60.42 54.02 34.48 54.81 89.13 73.41 69.81 81.61 116.86 180.75
67.61 53.19 40.15 60.27 98.87 71.65 77.25 73.54 125.73 196.50
72.34 57.24 38.29 58.34 97.46 62.63 76.55 81.97 148.55 188.75
70.13 56.23 35.59 64.89 102.70 54.37 72.14 83.35 138.16 168.67
72.13 51.09 31.38 67.36 94.08 52.60 81.70 89.04 127.32 170.32
63.11 56.43 39.25 48.87 87.74 71.04 67.83 85.10 111.58 162.07
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
119
HEATING OIL
Average Open Interest of #2 Heating Oil Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
114,324 100,333 171,177 167,686 135,431 138,980 166,824 178,932 153,794 155,528
95,745 105,223 163,114 160,388 132,407 127,219 173,110 174,224 145,924 152,479
90,080 122,149 177,158 166,472 108,646 120,899 160,205 134,616 161,945 174,437
94,161 139,981 174,587 172,127 100,389 127,395 144,936 111,706 174,618 179,923
98,038 135,523 176,663 170,842 117,055 130,328 139,979 118,822 176,784 176,770
97,699 141,864 196,903 168,307 129,872 141,436 136,201 124,675 167,331 185,831
109,524 151,403 205,071 182,383 153,914 149,577 131,742 127,273 193,291 182,710
119,366 149,243 198,527 188,726 169,092 145,605 141,084 146,821 206,099 185,185
138,513 151,407 188,096 192,883 177,997 145,692 147,692 150,893 197,783 174,229
141,217 141,008 188,019 179,040 168,388 155,540 153,739 156,142 188,843 172,772
127,512 126,528 192,835 165,334 155,475 162,392 161,137 145,857 176,298 178,199
108,558 145,153 184,100 146,997 142,145 153,850 156,268 145,555 163,629 178,008
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Volume of Trading of #2 Heating Oil Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
977.2 794.4 793.6 738.9 914.0 914.4 998.5 1,340.1 1,153.8 1,090.6
768.1 719.0 641.8 662.3 770.3 650.7 810.8 1,158.9 1,059.7 1,046.1
666.2 588.6 776.4 973.3 645.2 758.0 885.5 965.9 1,139.9 1,204.2
586.5 710.1 578.4 706.3 556.1 728.6 844.1 757.7 1,007.8 1,062.5
530.9 592.0 688.5 768.1 673.3 722.8 789.8 811.6 910.0 999.7
402.0 679.4 904.9 802.7 705.9 849.9 720.1 802.9 1,100.5 1,193.5
530.2 679.6 720.2 770.4 663.0 712.9 798.8 849.9 920.7 1,058.5
624.4 694.7 683.0 707.9 1,004.4 745.8 866.0 891.3 1,105.7 1,150.4
766.5 828.3 748.2 720.1 954.9 694.0 794.4 1,118.5 1,060.8 1,165.1
1,014.2 742.7 768.2 819.6 878.1 853.8 1,017.9 1,095.5 1,148.6 1,019.5
725.0 619.3 766.5 818.6 939.0 835.5 1,039.5 817.3 1,112.7 1,009.5
750.7 722.9 793.9 712.7 927.3 798.1 1,129.9 971.8 1,164.4 1,136.0
8,341.9 8,371.0 8,863.8 9,200.7 9,631.4 9,264.5 10,695.2 11,581.7 12,884.5 13,135.6
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
120
In Thousand of Contracts
Jan.
HEATING OIL
USD Per Gallon ----- No. 2, New York Harbor
Stocks of Distillate and Residual Fuel in the United States, on First of Month
In Millions of Barrels Residual Fuel ----- Oil Stocks -----
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan. 1
July 1
130.2 126.7 139.0 156.2 124.1 118.0 144.5 134.1 136.5 126.3
113.8 111.3 133.1 147.9 106.7 118.2 137.8 112.6 122.8 121.4
97.3 105.9 127.9 142.3 105.2 117.0 130.0 97.7 112.2 116.4
89.7 101.8 124.4 125.7 96.0 105.0 123.0 98.6 104.4 104.5
90.1 97.5 125.7 125.3 100.1 104.9 122.6 97.2 101.5 104.5
95.7 108.4 136.8 134.8 105.4 107.1 127.4 106.7 107.5 111.0
101.6 118.2 139.1 133.2 106.4 113.9 130.9 112.2 114.3 118.8
106.8 123.0 148.8 138.1 112.9 125.2 133.4 118.0 121.9 132.0
110.3 132.9 150.5 142.0 111.0 122.0 130.6 126.5 130.8 139.4
115.0 138.9 152.5 145.2 115.3 127.0 126.9 131.3 123.1 127.7
114.7 136.2 147.5 137.6 116.5 128.9 121.4 132.1 118.3 124.8
121.8 140.5 154.6 140.6 121.1 138.9 124.4 136.1 123.2 133.8
36.8 45.9 40.4 44.9 35.8 36.2 41.0 31.3 37.8 42.4
34.8 39.2 39.8 42.5 37.0 41.7 32.7 35.3 37.5 37.4
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration; U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production of Distillate Fuel Oil in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3,110 3,119 3,323 3,176 3,123 3,609 3,508 3,403 3,592 3,772
3,145 3,089 3,280 3,253 3,348 3,612 3,498 3,459 3,446 3,783
3,110 3,258 3,397 3,183 3,342 3,483 3,360 3,732 3,550 3,852
3,305 3,291 3,468 3,407 3,533 3,650 3,647 3,796 3,874 4,033
3,258 3,525 3,560 3,458 3,650 3,652 3,709 3,833 3,857 4,183
3,291 3,517 3,520 3,374 3,481 3,702 3,679 3,728 3,956 4,274
3,139 3,362 3,569 3,521 3,520 3,837 3,561 3,673 3,902 4,236
3,295 3,427 3,482 3,419 3,678 3,654 3,538 3,730 3,981 4,115
3,403 3,452 3,399 3,482 3,844 3,625 3,536 3,721 3,625 3,570
3,626 3,488 3,215 3,506 3,774 3,796 3,380 3,750 3,808 3,579
3,665 3,543 3,438 3,608 3,785 3,968 3,768 3,800 4,004 3,951
3,558 3,578 3,431 3,401 3,872 3,744 3,922 3,845 4,159 4,025
3,325 3,389 3,424 3,399 3,580 3,695 3,592 3,707 3,813 3,948
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
121
HEATING OIL Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil in the United States
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
195 304 218 789 298 325 370 352
213 322 510 635 248 503 507 344
237 248 260 348 234 460 449 253
209 213 234 288 219 246 267 264
185 261 316 310 193 287 275 280
202 238 258 302 204 337 324 236
229 234 199 209 188 299 283 243
181 273 234 212 205 375 313 262
203 249 283 317 196 352 272 263
239 216 259 253 350 281 243 507
179 265 332 244 373 241 319 485
245 188 447 241 496 305 292 435
210 250 295 344 267 333 326 327
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Exports of Distillate Fuel Oil in the United States
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
131 117 132 67 109 119 72 49
120 116 112 77 279 132 86 102
135 159 211 75 67 161 99 165
168 191 178 107 68 139 92 192
227 187 127 146 74 162 100 199
152 180 149 120 93 101 163 227
124 123 132 113 44 103 113 189
105 130 253 140 119 80 120 163
133 162 194 152 127 43 88 108
139 192 255 99 96 62 101 109
110 170 191 132 114 81 102 92
108 212 135 202 171 100 176 65
138 162 173 119 112 107 109 138
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Disposition of Distillate Fuel Oil, Total Product Supplied in the U.S. Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3,566 3,788 3,818 4,325 3,940 4,301 4,334 4,226
3,598 3,542 3,794 4,212 3,714 4,362 4,232 4,203
3,606 3,785 3,693 4,143 3,750 4,001 4,152 4,323
3,465 3,415 3,455 3,834 3,821 3,951 4,145 4,106
3,268 3,314 3,681 3,746 3,679 3,651 3,840 4,055
3,574 3,407 3,549 3,659 3,587 3,781 3,888 4,023
3,294 3,479 3,369 3,569 3,683 3,680 3,827 3,865
3,446 3,437 3,726 3,829 3,728 3,752 3,887 3,974
3,377 3,431 3,786 3,624 3,730 3,871 4,065 4,114
3,547 3,749 3,712 3,888 3,808 3,945 4,104 4,072
3,320 3,608 3,829 3,746 3,929 3,824 4,058 4,044
3,484 3,892 4,250 3,604 3,934 4,037 4,176 4,323
3,461 3,572 3,722 3,847 3,776 3,927 4,059 4,111
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production of Residual Fuel Oil in the United States
In Thousands Barrels per Day
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
765 775 640 809 625 658 656 697
672 726 627 743 613 683 659 686
790 683 649 750 617 652 635 629
857 679 620 817 601 632 701 636
766 725 640 786 582 729 668 639
739 706 679 783 540 666 648 663
778 736 741 639 566 632 618 607
782 701 760 622 583 663 631 582
749 702 702 653 607 662 617 551
676 658 747 710 593 640 610 526
753 596 778 685 648 616 703 634
805 690 768 655 641 686 723 647
762 698 696 721 601 660 656 625
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Supply and Disposition of Residual Fuel Oil in the United States
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
----------------------- Supply ----------------------- ----------------------------------- Disposition ----------------------------------Total Stock Product Production Imports Change Exports Supplied ------------------------------------------------------ Thousand Barrels Per Day ------------------------------------------------------
762 698 696 721 601 660 655 622
275 237 352 295 249 327 426 535
12 -25 1 13 -27 18 12 -10
138 129 139 191 177 197 205 242
Preliminary. 2 Less than +500 barrels per day and greater than -500 barrels per day. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
122
887 830 909 811 700 772 865 924 3
Refiner price excluding taxes.
Ending Stocks Million Barrels
Average Sales to End Users3 Cents per Gallon
45 36 36 41 31 38 42 39
30.5 37.4 60.2 53.1 56.9 69.8 73.9
Hides and Leather Hides and leather have been used since ancient times for boots, clothing, shields, armor, tents, bottles, buckets, and cups. Leather is produced through the tanning of hides, pelts, and skins of animals. The remains of leather have been found in the Middle East dating back at least 7,000 years.
US production of leather footwear has been dropping off sharply in recent years due to the movement of production offshore to lower cost producers. US production of leather footwear in 2003 fell -46% yr/yr to 22.3 million pairs and was a mere 4% of the 562.3 million pairs produced in 1970.
Today, most leather is made of cowhide but it is also made from the hides of lamb, deer, ostrich, snakes, crocodiles, and even stingray. Cattle hides are the most valuable byproduct of the meat packing industry. US exports of cowhides bring more than $1 billion in foreign trade, and US finished leather production is worth about $4 billion.
Demand – World consumption of cowhides and skins in 2000, the last reporting year for the series, rose +1.4% to 4,774 metric tons, which was a record high for the data series, which goes back to 1983. The world’s largest consumers of cowhides and skins in 2000 were the US with 13.0% of world consumption, Italy (10.6%), Brazil (8.9%), Mexico, (6.0%), Argentina (6.0%), and South Korea (5.9%).
Prices – The average monthly price of wholesale cattle hides (packer heavy native steers FOB Chicago) in 2005 fell -2.3% yr/yr to 80.47 cents per pound. That was well below the record high of 90.06 cents per pound posted in 1989. Supply – World production of cattle and buffalo hides in 2002, the last reporting year for the series, rose by +1.5% yr/yr to 8.222 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of cattle and buffalo hides in 2002 were the US with 13% of world production, Brazil with 9% and Argentina with 5%. US new supply of cattle hides from domestic slaughter in 2003 fell –0.8% yr/yr to 35.454 million hides, which was far below the record high of 43.582 million hides posted in 1976.
World Production of Cattle and Buffalo Hides Year
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
388 384 338 364 372 348 345 375 432 432
206 219 233 241 238 254 243 248 243 255
605 622 637 667 670 725 750 770 792 792
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052 1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
Canada Colombia
88 91 94 98 96 95 96 88 111 115
84 81 81 86 82 76 72 72 80 80
Trade – US net exports of cattle hides in 2002 (latest data available) fell –10.4% yr/yr to 19.484 million hides from the 13-year high of 21.750 million hides posted in 2001. The total value of US leather exports in 2002 fell –4.8% yr/yr to $1.162 billion. The largest destinations for US exports in 2004 were South Korea (which took 22% of US exports), Taiwan (10%), Mexico (8%), Thailand (4%), and Italy (2%). World imports of cowhides and skins in 2000 (latest data available) rose +2.8% yr/yr to a record high of 2,058 metric tons. The world’s largest importers of cowhides and skins in 2000 were South Korea (with 13% of world imports in 2000), Italy (11%) and Taiwan (7%).
In Thousands of Metric Tons France
Germany
Italy
Mexico
Russia
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
164 163 154 151 150 150 160 157 150 150
176 176 161 162 152 153 151 141 141 141
150 148 142 145 143 130 132 130 132 132
160 161 170 170 175 176 176 176 176 176
325 294 275 229 232 220 224 229 223 220
67 64 65 64 68 61 65 63 66 66
1,065 1,063 1,070 1,099 1,116 1,031 1,054 1,046 1,046 1,046
6,927 7,195 7,214 7,304 7,416 7,266 7,444 7,642 7,894 8,033
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Salient Statistics of Hides and Leather in the United States --------- New Supply of Cattle Hides --------------- Domestic Slaughter ------
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
760 177 751 677 664 615 599 614 590
35,639 36,760 36,492 35,637 36,320 36,416 35,370 35,734 35,493 32,728
Wholesale Leather
-- Cents Per Pound -- ------ Production -------
Federally UninTotal Net Inspected spected4 Production Exports ------ Thousands of Equivalent Hides ------
34,879 36,583 35,567 34,787 36,150 36,246 34,771 35,120 34,907 32,156
In Thousands of Equivalent Hides
Wholesale Prices
18,336 18,626 17,562 15,937 15,700 19,670 21,750 19,484 18,177 17,388
Heavy Native Cows2
93.69 92.15 90.99 75.45 73.80 83.41 85.52 85.73 88.34
All U.S. CattleHeavy Tanning hide Native Steers3 In 1,000 Equiv. Hides
87.6 86.4 86.1 69.5 73.1 81.2 89.8 82.3 83.8 82.2
18,092 18,769 19,592 20,297 21,342 17,332 14,212
17,480 18,135 18,930 19,706 20,620 16,746 13,779 16,403 17,470 15,492
-------- Indexes- -------- ------- Footw ear -----Value of ProLeather --------- Upper ---------duction5 Men Women Exports Exports $1,000 ------ 1982 = 100 ------- ----- Million Pairs -----
870,247 950,510 1,145,664 1,289,547 1,137,534 1,125,957 1,221,131 1,161,944 1,150,212 1,344,017
150.1 152.4 156.4 158.0 157.0 157.2 158.4 158.8 161.4 161.7
129.0 132.1 132.2 132.4 133.0 133.6 133.8 133.5 132.1 129.2
147,550 127,315 124,444 108,536 78,581 58,870 55,600 41,100 22,300
20,571 23,726 21,958 19,009 18,176 20,157 19,472 21,582 21,319 21,464
Preliminary. 2 Central U.S., heifers. 3 F.O.B. Chicago. 4 I ncludes farm slaughter; diseased & condemned animals & hides taken off fallen animals. 5 Other than rubber. Sources: Leather I ndustries of America (LI A); Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
1
123
HIDES AND LEATHER Production of All Footw ear (Shoes, Sandals, Slippers, Athletic, Etc.) in the U.S. Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1
Preliminary.
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
42.5 37.2 33.2 31.4 32.8
40.8 38.3 31.8 33.1 31.8
40.1 34.8 29.7 28.6 29.3
39.5 36.7 33.2 30.6 28.6
163.0 147.0 128.0 124.4 108.5
In Millions of Pairs
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
26.7 -------------
26.1 -------------
24.5 -------------
21.7 -------------
78.6 68.7 54.8 41.1 22.3
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Factory Price2 of Footw ear in the United States
In Dollars Per Pair
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
25.77 19.61 23.65 22.42 24.39
23.60 21.46 22.78 21.56 24.21
21.49 25.37 22.14 22.21 20.27
22.44 21.26 20.38 22.24 19.78
23.22 21.79 22.07 22.11 21.84
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
23.33 -------------
22.70 -------------
19.90 -------------
19.50 -------------
21.19 24.14 25.66 24.12 45.95
1
Preliminary.
2
Average value of factory shipments per pair.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Imports and Exports of All Cattle Hides in the United States Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 1
2,165 2,927 1,496 1,909 1,906 1,972 1,721 1,298
Preliminary.
1,656 2,710 1,405 1,808 1,742 1,876 1,615 1,227
20,095 20,328 19,195 17,867 17,621 21,658 23,471 20,784 19,139 18,795
952 1,149 1,320 1,126 829 875 716 837 530 346
332 522 469 1,164 738 1,163 920 1,099 779 417
3,246 2,372 1,802 1,407 1,252 1,529 1,343 584 483 468
8,283 7,956 7,470 4,897 6,038 7,673 7,602 5,812 4,784 4,218
Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 20002 P reliminary.
Brazil
Canada
Hong Kong
11 21 16 33 20 13 10 8 8
17 26 28 35 34 39 42 34 36
80 81 95 100 79 64 71 91 93
2
F orecast.
Italy
Japan
Mexi co
131 141 243 250 263 254 249 215 220
188 188 139 152 123 114 96 95 95
71 71 60 30 71 96 110 115 115
1
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Germany
144 142 96 85 93 115 111 115 108
71 76 84 148 174 216 220 230 250
74 87 79 90 97 97 86 83 85
38 40 24 34 33 35 31 28 31
75 76 93 100 72 60 69 90 92
P reliminary.
124
63 171 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
215 189 148 440 262 189 159 189 63 16
3,017 2,871 2,866 2,701 2,863 2,844 2,751 2,145 1,982 1,842
781 455 323 336 343 562 888 914 788 684
2
F orecast.
In Metric Tons
Portugal
Spain
Tai wan
Turkey
Uni ted States
World Total
32 39 56 43 42 37 39 42 43
385 372 356 342 341 323 229 254 260
26 35 29 42 33 44 44 29 30
91 94 112 112 124 140 142 142 142
28 37 17 43 50 68 45 55 60
65 57 49 57 60 60 59 57 57
1,266 1,426 1,556 1,715 1,692 1,985 1,876 2,002 2,058
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
Hong Kong
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 20002
111 64 55 91 46 37 54 14 6 4
Rep. of Korea
E xp o rts o f B o vin e H id es an d S kin s b y S elected C o u n tries Year
899 2,123 2,501 2,846 2,723 2,196 1,647 1,470 1,257 1,419
Source: Leather I ndustries of America
Imp o rts o f B o vin e H id es an d S kin s b y S elected C o u n tries
1
In Thousands of Hides
-------- Imports -------- ------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Exports - by Country of Destination -----------------------------------------------------------From Rep. of Total Canada Total Canada Italy Ja p a n Korea Mexico Portugal Romania Spain Taiwan Thailand
In Metric Tons
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Poland
Russia
Uni ted Ki ngdom
Uni ted States
World Total
9 7 10 10 20 16 24 7 8
66 35 37 47 47 48 32 30 25
31 21 22 22 28 27 28 30 30
17 5 2 2 3 3 6 7 7
28 150 216 195 212 210 202 190 170
19 25 22 22 24 25 17 15 15
610 581 455 510 506 473 443 436 427
1,261 1,374 1,271 1,351 1,423 1,475 1,400 1,389 1,399
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
HIDES AND LEATHER
Cents Per Pound ----- Heavy Native Steers, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - date) - - - Light Native Steers, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - Feb. 1966)
U tiliz atio n o f B o vin e H id es an d S kin s b y S elected C o u n tries Year
Argenti na
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 20002 1
308 298 302 304 300 308 332 285 300 285
P reliminary.
2
Brazil Colombia
396 382 510 505 493 461 387 412 415 425
F orecast.
98 97 94 96 89 91 89 91 89 89
In Metric Tons
Germany
Italy
Japan
Mexi co
Rep. of Korea
143 129 100 83 79 80 101 100 102 103
435 435 435 550 570 615 570 540 500 505
253 229 226 200 191 165 150 135 130 130
225 231 232 226 200 230 251 275 280 285
400 400 385 374 355 353 347 265 280 283
Spain
Tai wan
Turkey
Uni ted States
World Total
119 98 98 94 98 95 106 108 104 108
101 91 94 112 112 124 140 142 142 142
78 90 95 85 100 110 120 100 110 120
491 528 554 536 523 548 572 603 623 623
4,009 3,977 4,322 4,282 4,365 4,332 4,609 4,584 4,707 4,774
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
Wholesale Price of Hides (Packer Heavy Native Steers) F.O.B. Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
73.67 89.77 66.88 69.42 75.92 85.33 68.23 83.77 85.17 78.14
75.11 93.47 77.33 69.97 76.29 84.12 72.39 85.81 81.79 80.90
77.96 99.44 82.61 70.84 77.86 93.02 80.41 86.04 82.89 79.04
84.58 99.40 83.72 67.36 78.83 102.64 83.21 85.81 79.15 80.45
87.56 89.44 85.05 65.96 79.24 106.19 84.32 79.42 80.16 79.49
82.51 81.45 83.13 66.89 75.18 97.31 86.72 77.64 82.43 83.07
89.45 80.20 81.17 68.17 77.25 87.59 84.43 80.53 85.11 82.70
96.06 83.92 81.11 72.41 81.64 77.28 85.77 84.09 84.54 81.78
98.91 84.86 75.23 77.52 85.60 73.51 85.84 86.78 85.05 80.58
101.51 86.35 67.95 80.43 84.89 70.58 85.75 86.13 82.23 80.44
94.60 89.20 67.53 79.67 84.41 73.30 83.35 85.89 81.42 80.07
90.65 82.61 68.26 78.00 85.31 69.16 85.18 86.05 78.02 79.03
87.71 88.34 76.66 72.22 80.20 85.00 82.13 84.00 82.33 80.47
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
125
Hogs Hogs are generally bred twice a year in a continuous cycle designed to provide a steady flow of production. The gestation period for hogs is 3-1/2 months and the average litter size is 9 pigs. The pigs are weaned at 3-4 weeks of age. The pigs are then fed so as to maximize weight gain. The feed consists primarily of grains such as corn, barley, milo, oats, and wheat. Protein is added from oilseed meals. Hogs typically gain 3.1 pounds per pound of feed. The time from birth to slaughter is typically 6 months. Hogs are ready for slaughter at about 254 pounds, producing a dressed carcass weight of around 190 pounds and an average 88.6 pounds of lean meat. The lean meat consists of 21% ham, 20% loin, 14% belly, 3% spareribs, 7% Boston butt roast and blade steaks, and 10% picnic, with the remaining 25% going into jowl, lean trim, fat, miscellaneous cuts, and trimmings. Futures on lean hogs are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The futures contract is settled in cash based on the CME Lean Hog Index price, meaning that no physical delivery of hogs occurs. The CME Lean Hog Index is based on the 2-day average net price of slaughtered hogs at the average lean percentage level. Price Action – Lean hog futures prices on the nearest futures chart in early 2005 initially sustained the sharp rally seen in 2004 to an 8-1/2 year high, but then faded through most of the rest of the year and closed 2005 at 59.25 cents/ pound, down -22% yr/yr from 76.40 cents at the end of 2004. Lean hog prices rallied sharply in 2004 and early 2005 due to strong foreign export demand tied to the ban on US beef exports by major US trading partners. US pork exports soared by 27% in 2004 and +24% in 2005 but will likely be flat in 2006 due to the end of the US beef ban in late 2005. Pork prices received a boost in 2005 on hopes that bird flu would boost demand for pork as an alternative, although in the short-term, consumers in Europe and Asia cut their demand for US poultry imports, thus causing lower poultry prices in the US and forcing pork prices lower as well.
yr to 92.537 million metric tons. The USDA is forecasting a further +2.8% rise in 2006 to 95.167 million metric tons. The world’s largest pork producers are China with 48.900 million metric tons of production in 2005, the European Union with 20.720 million metric tons, and the US with 9.402 million metric tons. US pork production in 2005 rose +1.0% to 9.402 million metric tons, and is forecasted by the USDA to rise by another +2.0% to 9.591 million metric tons in 2006. The number of hogs and pigs on US farms in 2005 (Dec 1) rose slightly by +0.4% to 61.197 million, which was the highest level since 1980. The federally-inspected hog slaughter in the US in 2005 (annualized through November) fell –0.5% to 101.859 million head, down from the record high of 102.361 million head in 2004. Demand – World consumption of pork in 2005 rose by +1.5% yr/yr to 91.605 million metric tons. The USDA is forecasting a further +2.8% rise in world pork consumption in 2006 to 94.207 million metric tons. US consumption of pork in 2005 fell by –2.2% to 8.619 million metric tons, but the USDA is forecasting a rise of +1.7% in 2006 to 8.763 million metric tons. The US accounted for 9.4% of world consumption in 2005. Trade – World pork exports in 2005 rose by +19.9% yr/ yr to 5.003 million metric tons, but the USDA is forecasting a sharp drop-off in growth to +1.9% in 2006 to 5.100 million metric tons. The world’s largest pork exporters are the European Union with 29% of world exports in 2005, the US with 25%, Canada with 21%, and Brazil with 15%. US pork exports in 2005 rose +24.3% yr/yr to 1.229 million metric tons and the USDA is forecasting a further +2.8% rise in 2006 to 1.263 million metric tons. World pork imports in 2005 fell –0.4% to 4.067 million metric tons, but the USDA is forecasting a +1.5% in 2006 to 4.129 million metric tons. The world’s largest pork importers are Japan, which accounted for 31% of world imports in 2005, Russia (16%), Mexico (12%), the US (11%), and South Korea (7%).
Supply – World pork production in 2005 rose +2.1% yr/
Salient Statistics of Pigs and Hogs in the United States --------------------------- Pig Crop -------------------------------------- Spring3 ----------- ------------ Fall4 --------------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Value of Hogs Quantity Hog Sows Pig Pigs on Farms, Dec. 1 Marketings Produced Sows P i g P i gs Crop Per $ Per Farrowed Crop Per Farrowed Total Thousand (Live Wt.) --- 1,000 Head --- Litter --- 1,000 Head --- Litter Head Million $ Head Mill. Lbs.
5,648 5,595 6,015 5,877 5,683 5,619 5,776 5,655 5,706 5,716
Preliminary.
126
2
47,887 48,393 52,469 51,519 50,087 49,472 50,858 50,029 50,737 51,330
Estimate.
8.46 8.65 8.73 8.77 8.81 8.81 8.81 8.85 8.89 8.98 3
5,449 5,885 6,047 5,764 5,727 5,767 5,716 5,773 5,793 5,787
46,571 51,190 52,536 50,835 50,660 51,031 50,820 51,462 52,043 52,355
December-May.
4
8.55 94.0 8.70 82.0 8.69 44.0 8.82 72.0 8.85 77.0 8.85 77.0 8.89 71.0 8.91 67.0 8.98 102.0 9.05 June-November.
5,281 4,986 2,766 4,254 4,542 4,590 4,231 4,025 6,179
101,852 104,301 117,240 121,137 118,418 119,262 124,013 124,383 127,599
23,267 23,979 25,715 25,791 25,717 25,884 26,274 26,260 26,678
-- Hogs Slaughtered in Thousand Head -Value --------- Commercial --------of Production Federally Mil. $ Inspected Other Total Farm Total
12,013 90,534 12,552 90,228 8,674 99,285 7,766 99,739 10,791 96,436 11,430 96,528 8,691 98,915 9,663 99,685 13,072 102,361 102,510
1,860 1,733 1,745 1,806 1,540 1,434 1,348 1,233 1,103 1,046
92,394 91,960 101,029 101,544 97,976 97,962 100,263 100,931 103,463 103,554
175 92,569 165 92,125 165 101,194 150 101,694 130 98,106 120 98,082 115 100,378 116 101,047 114 103,577
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
HOGS World Hog Numbers in Specified Countries as of January 1 Brazil
Canada
China
Denmark
France
Germany
Philippines
31,369 31,427 31,427 31,860 32,440 32,710 32,655 32,081 32,323 32,938
11,480 11,985 12,429 12,904 13,576 14,367 14,672 14,623 14,675 14,805
362,836 400,348 422,563 430,198 446,815 457,430 462,915 466,017 481,891 500,324
116,043 118,450 152,006 156,534 152,825 152,473 154,311 152,793 151,657 152,500
9,823 9,904 9,879 9,805 9,788 9,612 9,725 9,724 9,600 9,600
6,516 7,096 6,700 7,000 7,350 7,856 8,110 8,367 8,044 7,960
10,250 10,520 10,860 10,781 10,649 10,569 10,549 10,668 10,303 10,038
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 20062 1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
In Thousands of Head Poland
Russia
Spain
Ukraine
9,750 10,210 10,398 10,764 11,715 11,816 12,218 12,518 12,139 12,090
19,500 16,579 16,400 16,100 15,780 16,570 17,000 17,200 16,500 17,330
10,698 7,967 6,539 7,243 7,495 7,165 6,794 6,779 6,819 7,100
11,236 9,479 10,083 10,073 7,652 8,317 9,204 7,321 6,461 6,480
Geargia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
800 520 480 480 380 315 345 295 275 270
4,400 4,700 4,850 4,050 4,150 4,250 4,150 4,000 4,100 4,000
3,750 3,950 4,050 3,250 3,350 3,200 3,250 3,100 3,200 3,200
12,200 14,600 15,300 15,400 15,100 15,400 15,500 15,900 16,300 16,400
1,450 1,530 1,590 1,460 1,520 1,570 1,530 1,650 1,710 1,780
4,850 5,700 5,700 5,500 5,800 5,800 6,100 6,500 6,500 6,600
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
World Total
56,124 701,300 61,158 741,044 62,204 770,055 59,335 777,122 59,110 783,883 59,722 796,947 59,554 806,822 60,444 807,370 60,975 819,773 60,900 840,515
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Hogs and Pigs on Farms in the United States on December 1 Year
United States
In Thousands of Head
Missouri Nebraska
3,450 3,550 3,300 3,150 2,900 3,000 2,950 2,950 2,900 2,750
3,600 3,500 3,400 3,000 3,050 2,900 3,000 2,900 2,850 2,850
North Carolina
Ohio
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Total
9,300 9,600 9,700 9,500 9,300 9,800 9,700 10,000 9,900 9,800
1,500 1,700 1,700 1,480 1,490 1,430 1,440 1,520 1,450 1,550
1,200 1,400 1,400 1,260 1,320 1,290 1,330 1,280 1,340 1,480
800 740 690 570 610 540 520 480 430 430
56,171 61,158 62,206 59,342 59,138 59,804 59,554 60,444 60,975 61,197
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Hog-Corn Price Ratio2 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
13.8 20.0 14.1 12.8 19.3 18.8 19.1 14.2 15.4 25.1
13.8 19.9 14.1 13.5 20.2 20.0 19.9 14.7 16.3 26.0
13.9 17.7 13.7 13.6 20.5 23.5 18.6 14.9 17.2 25.4
12.9 19.2 14.8 14.8 23.3 25.3 16.6 14.9 16.4 25.6
13.7 21.6 18.1 18.4 22.9 27.7 17.2 17.4 19.7 27.6
13.4 22.6 18.6 17.3 25.6 29.7 18.2 19.2 20.3 24.4
13.2 24.3 16.8 18.2 29.5 27.6 18.4 19.7 22.7 23.6
13.9 22.1 18.6 20.7 28.8 26.6 13.4 18.4 23.6 26.2
15.4 20.0 16.1 19.4 25.8 23.7 10.7 18.0 24.9 26.1
19.3 18.6 14.6 20.2 23.8 21.8 13.2 17.3 24.4 25.8
20.5 18.0 9.7 19.6 19.8 18.9 12.2 15.8 27.1 24.6
21.1 16.5 7.3 19.6 20.2 16.8 13.1 14.8 25.7 23.1
15.4 20.0 14.7 17.3 23.3 23.4 15.9 16.6 21.1 25.3
1 Preliminary. 2 Bushels of corn equal in value to 100 pounds of hog, live weight. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Source: Economic Research Service,
Cold Storage Holdings of Froz en Pork2 in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
334.8 313.8 346.4 503.5 415.4 411.5 465.0 468.5 470.7 482.9
382.2 342.2 446.1 510.3 481.4 471.4 503.9 512.7 504.1 498.7
385.5 383.9 464.5 540.9 523.5 468.3 510.9 519.7 477.1 541.2
352.9 404.7 458.8 552.8 534.7 432.3 531.5 530.5 447.3 543.7
385.5 440.2 487.0 596.9 532.1 432.6 567.7 520.0 448.6 563.8
381.3 413.4 477.4 572.7 537.9 421.5 548.0 499.7 412.8 512.7
351.8 406.2 426.8 528.6 495.5 374.1 497.8 460.0 373.0 492.6
322.7 388.7 414.6 494.6 478.5 339.5 472.2 440.7 366.8 449.1
322.9 371.8 392.6 432.6 455.6 332.6 464.4 430.2 382.1 414.4
340.3 346.6 388.9 430.6 439.5 366.9 480.2 435.2 413.8 431.6
333.3 354.2 411.9 438.1 438.6 430.6 489.8 446.8 423.1 446.5
316.4 334.1 443.4 422.5 445.6 432.7 463.9 438.9 436.3 437.5
2
Excludes lard.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
127
HOGS
Cents Per Pound ----- Top, Chicago (Jan. 1909 - Mar 1968) Farrowing, Chicago (Apr. 1968 - May 1970) Average, Omaha (June 1970 - date)
Average Price of Hogs, National Base 51-52% lean2 In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds (Cwt.) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
42.39 52.96 35.60 28.58 38.32 38.61 40.16 34.39 39.02 53.36
46.93 51.36 34.53 29.65 41.58 41.47 40.65 35.64 45.21 51.11
49.06 48.52 37.22 28.25 43.52 48.41 37.47 36.11 48.30 51.30
50.88 54.41 37.22 31.69 49.59 49.28 32.97 36.42 48.34 51.00
58.29 57.84 45.51 38.45 50.21 52.34 34.64 43.62 58.45 55.40
56.45 57.43 45.32 35.39 51.48 54.53 37.32 47.88 57.95 49.86
59.47 58.89 39.85 32.84 50.45 53.75 40.53 44.98 58.21 49.96
60.49 54.17 37.98 38.56 45.35 52.47 34.00 41.90 56.19 51.60
54.60 49.45 32.00 35.71 43.49 46.93 26.98 41.82 55.34 49.98
55.41 46.12 29.60 35.84 43.09 41.27 31.69 38.63 53.68 47.49
54.42 44.86 19.95 35.34 37.84 35.49 29.99 36.02 56.23 37.70
55.47 40.33 16.62 37.70 41.40 35.14 32.35 36.02 53.15 43.00
53.66 51.36 34.28 34.00 44.69 45.81 34.90 39.45 52.51 49.31
Preliminary.
2
Data Prior to January 1998 are for Sioux City.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Hogs in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
128
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
42.6 53.8 36.0 26.5 36.8 37.2 37.7 33.0 36.8 53.2
46.5 52.8 35.9 27.7 39.9 39.2 38.5 34.3 42.6 50.7
48.7 49.4 34.9 28.0 41.7 45.9 36.0 34.7 47.2 51.2
49.7 53.8 35.6 30.1 47.4 47.8 31.7 34.8 47.4 51.2
56.8 58.2 42.4 36.6 48.3 50.4 33.2 41.3 56.6 54.9
56.4 57.8 42.5 34.1 48.9 52.2 35.8 45.0 56.7 49.6
58.6 58.9 36.9 31.6 48.3 51.7 39.2 42.7 57.1 49.8
59.7 55.3 35.2 36.2 43.8 50.8 31.9 39.6 55.3 51.0
54.7 50.4 29.5 33.9 41.6 45.2 26.5 39.7 54.8 49.5
55.6 47.3 27.8 34.2 41.4 40.2 30.8 36.7 52.2 47.0
54.4 45.1 18.9 33.4 36.8 35.0 27.8 34.7 55.6 43.6
55.6 41.6 15.0 35.6 39.8 33.3 30.3 34.2 52.4 44.3
53.3 52.0 32.6 32.3 42.9 44.1 33.3 37.6 51.2 49.7
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
HOGS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in the United States, 10 States Year2
Inventory3
Breeding3
1996 I II III IV 1997 I II III IV 1998 I II III IV 1999 I II III IV 2000 I II III IV
58,264 58,264 55,741 56,038 56,961 56,124 56,141 55,049 57,366 60,456 61,158 61,158 60,163 62,213 63,488 62,206 62,206 60,191 60,896 60,776 59,342 59,342 57,782 59,117 59,495
6,839 6,839 6,701 6,682 6,577 6,578 6,667 6,637 6,789 6,858 6,957 6,957 6,942 6,958 6,875 6,682 6,682 6,527 6,515 6,301 6,234 6,234 6,190 6,234 6,246
Market3 Farrowings
Pig Crop
Year2
51,425 51,425 49,040 49,356 50,384 49,546 49,474 48,412 50,577 53,598 54,200 54,200 53,220 55,254 56,612 55,523 55,523 53,663 54,380 54,474 53,109 53,109 51,593 52,884 53,250
94,458 23,054 24,833 23,244 23,327 99,583 23,164 25,229 25,696 25,494 104,981 25,480 26,989 26,634 25,878 102,354 25,247 26,272 25,862 24,973 100,747 24,522 25,565 25,548 25,112
2001 I II III IV 2002 I II III IV 2003 I II III IV 2004 I II III IV 20051 I II III IV
11,114 2,735 2,930 2,718 2,731 11,480 2,684 2,911 2,946 2,939 12,062 2,929 3,086 3,054 2,993 11,641 2,891 2,986 2,920 2,844 11,410 2,798 2,885 2,889 2,838
In Thousands of Head
Inventory3
Breeding3
59,138 59,138 57,524 58,603 59,777 59,804 59,804 59,256 60,391 60,753 59,554 59,554 58,183 59,602 61,009 60,444 60,444 59,520 60,698 61,519 60,975 60,975 59,699 60,698 61,636
6,270 6,270 6,232 6,186 6,158 6,209 6,209 6,230 6,208 6,051 6,058 6,058 6,027 6,026 5,938 6,009 6,009 5,961 5,937 5,962 5,969 5,969 5,941 5,937 5,972
Preliminary. 2 Quarters are Dec. preceding year-Feb.(I ), Mar.-May(I I ), June-Aug.(I I I ) and Sept.-Nov.(I V). Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
1
Federally Inspected Hog Slaughter in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
3
Market3 Farrowings
Pig Crop
52,868 52,868 51,292 52,417 53,619 53,594 53,594 53,026 54,183 54,702 53,496 53,496 52,156 53,576 55,071 54,434 54,434 53,558 54,760 55,556 55,005 55,005 53,757 54,760 55,663
100,503 23,963 25,509 25,539 25,492 101,677 24,857 26,001 25,725 25,094 101,491 24,400 25,629 25,974 25,488 102,781 25,105 25,633 26,162 25,881 103,685 25,343 25,986 26,276 26,080
11,385 2,748 2,870 2,878 2,889 11,492 2,835 2,941 2,883 2,833 11,429 2,769 2,886 2,918 2,856 11,499 2,836 2,870 2,905 2,888 11,504 2,835 2,882 2,899 2,888
Beginning of period.
In Thousands of Head
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
8,129 7,610 8,454 8,373 8,010 8,521 8,552 8,680 8,704 8,402
7,506 6,836 7,590 7,746 7,955 7,491 7,400 7,587 7,805 8,031
7,549 7,437 8,335 8,945 8,695 8,207 7,879 8,069 8,942 8,858
7,886 7,590 8,198 8,386 7,108 7,722 8,321 8,238 8,567 8,369
7,485 6,971 7,443 7,303 7,816 7,836 8,215 7,715 7,494 7,939
6,395 6,859 7,596 8,176 7,823 7,368 7,425 7,665 8,415 8,470
7,187 7,169 8,130 7,778 7,235 7,333 7,957 8,008 8,008 7,582
7,509 7,197 8,024 8,256 8,481 8,247 8,425 7,951 8,616 8,880
7,541 7,872 8,443 8,501 7,992 7,687 8,384 8,466 8,897 8,777
8,423 8,625 9,192 8,806 8,746 9,210 9,276 9,547 8,883 9,027
7,469 7,601 8,650 8,750 8,633 8,610 8,548 8,506 8,881 9,038
7,455 8,461 9,231 8,719 7,943 8,298 8,534 9,254 9,150 9,138
90,534 90,228 99,285 99,739 96,436 96,528 98,915 99,685 102,361 102,510
Preliminary. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Live Weight of all Hogs Slaughtered Under Federal Inspection
In Pounds Per Head
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
257 257 259 259 262 265 268 268 269 270
254 256 258 259 262 264 267 267 268 270
255 256 257 259 263 264 267 268 268 271
255 256 257 260 263 265 268 268 268 271
255 256 256 260 264 264 267 268 266 270
256 257 255 260 263 264 266 266 265 269
251 253 252 257 260 261 261 263 263 265
250 252 252 254 258 258 259 261 263 263
250 255 253 256 260 262 261 263 266 265
255 257 257 259 263 267 264 268 267 269
258 261 262 262 266 269 268 270 270 272
257 260 261 262 265 268 268 269 270 272
254 256 257 259 262 264 265 267 267 269
1
Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
129
HOGS
Data through December 1996 contract are for Live Hogs * .74 Adjusted to correspond to the Lean Hogs contract.
Average Open Interest of Lean Hog1 Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
35,253 33,105 45,908 46,003 49,209 41,425 28,720 40,660 46,380 102,580
34,823 33,953 42,241 44,211 54,094 41,892 31,662 39,862 55,058 97,550
38,730 31,289 38,965 43,803 57,472 48,381 33,056 40,446 63,889 95,841
42,900 34,071 33,610 48,277 68,535 45,296 33,472 37,883 77,756 94,008
41,916 41,978 34,257 55,951 64,938 41,910 33,161 43,672 80,271 96,662
36,620 37,398 32,456 52,398 54,208 45,715 28,719 47,338 81,370 91,871
35,616 36,141 32,085 54,723 45,730 51,661 29,338 39,706 79,860 97,160
32,541 33,712 31,199 49,915 38,233 47,760 32,030 37,700 84,840 95,841
32,591 31,483 34,165 53,055 38,802 42,072 36,136 49,469 86,092 107,617
34,329 36,928 34,051 54,089 38,254 36,983 35,245 46,295 86,423 113,754
Data through December 1996 are Live Hogs and Lean Hogs.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
D e c.
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total2
177,299 180,241 180,241 218,608 175,399 183,493 145,266 186,436 212,420 347,467
138,002 159,600 182,698 171,108 186,352 159,020 120,994 137,479 170,270 237,079
150,117 200,118 174,752 196,825 231,532 197,004 168,929 186,511 249,205 380,658
216,476 212,810 132,952 189,773 158,765 142,892 196,956 156,370 211,501 287,828
208,696 222,759 155,737 214,852 218,222 165,220 163,816 209,740 295,271 412,655
177,359 188,615 167,767 237,240 235,036 184,421 158,074 210,901 304,279 398,201
185,872 181,637 185,427 239,096 172,725 198,503 166,064 199,782 315,197 354,819
157,540 146,297 157,973 167,787 145,849 164,712 140,154 124,677 215,233 315,949
158,077 149,950 164,964 190,238 146,240 152,178 174,797 232,705 356,295 391,121
203,789 175,135 173,163 187,794 142,240 177,601 167,065 207,247 242,204 295,817
170,586 152,876 218,950 205,505 153,043 163,798 165,039 164,190 376,823 421,714
152,098 130,871 241,767 139,270 146,404 129,497 164,106 148,117 255,488 310,235
2,095.9 2,100.9 2,136.3 2,358.1 2,111.8 2,018.3 1,931.3 2,164.2 3,204.2 4,153.5
Data through December 1996 are Live Hogs and Lean Hogs.
130
Nov.
33,148 32,163 39,363 39,394 42,224 45,241 54,432 50,691 40,075 45,141 32,821 27,687 42,852 43,974 43,552 43,352 94,336 98,328 116,005 124,492
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Lean Hog1 Futures in Chicago Year
In Contracts
2
I n thousands of contracts.
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Honey value of US honey production in 2004 fell –20.3% to $202 million from the record $253 million in 2003.
Honey is the thick, supersaturated sugar solution produced by bees to feed their larvae. It is composed of fructose, glucose and water in varying proportions and also contains several enzymes and oils. The color of honey varies due to the source of nectar and age of the honey. Light colored honeys are usually of higher quality than darker honeys. The average honeybee colony can produce more than 700 pounds of honey per year but only 10 percent is usually harvested by the beekeeper. The rest of the honey is consumed by the colony during the year. American per capita honey consumption is 1 pound per person per year. Honey is said to be humanity’s oldest sweet, and beeswax the first plastic.
Supply – World production of honey in 2002, the latest reporting year for the series, rose +1.2% to a record 1.270 million metric tons from 1.255 million metric tons in 2001. The world’s largest producer of honey by far is China with 258,000 metric tons of production in 2002, representing about 20% of total world production, followed by the US with 90,000 metric tons, and Argentina with 85,000 metric tons. US production of honey in 2004 rose by +1.0% to 183.6 million pounds, but remained well below the 10-year high of 220.3 million pounds posted in both 1998 and 2000. Stocks rose sharply by 50.1% to 61.2 million pounds in 2004 (Jan 1) from the 23-year low of 39.4 million pounds posted in 2002. Yield per colony rose +2.6% to 71.8 pounds per colony in 2004. The number of colonies, however, fell –1.7% to 2.556 million in 2004, not much above the record low of 2.506 million colonies posted in 2001.
Honey is used in many ways, including direct human consumption, baking, and medicine. Honey has several healing properties. Its high sugar content nourishes injured tissues, thus enhancing faster healing time. Honey’s phytochemicals create a form of hydrogen peroxide that cleans out the wound, and the thick consistency protects the wound from contact with air Honey has also proven superior to antibiotic ointments for reducing rates of infection in people with burns.
Trade – The US in 2002 imported much more honey than it produced, with imports in 2003 at 200.3 million pounds versus US domestic production in that year of 181.7 million pounds. US exports of honey are small and totaled only 6.9 million pounds in 2003, accounting for only 3.8% of US production.
Prices – US average domestic honey prices in 2004 fell by –21.8% to 108.5 cents per pound from 2003, but is still almost double the 10-year low of 59.7 cents in 2000. The
World Production of Honey Year
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Germany
Ja p a n
Mexico
Russia
United States
Total
57,000 70,000 65,000 93,000 93,000 80,000 85,000
26,000 27,000 22,000 19,000 21,000 22,000 22,000
18,000 18,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 22,000 22,000
27,000 31,000 46,000 37,000 32,000 35,000 33,000
189,000 215,000 211,000 236,000 252,000 255,000 258,000
15,000 15,000 16,000 20,000 20,000 26,000 22,000
3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
49,000 54,000 55,000 55,000 59,000 59,000 55,000
46,000 49,000 50,000 51,000 54,000 53,000 55,000
90,000 89,000 100,000 94,000 100,000 84,000 90,000
1,091,000 1,148,000 1,178,000 1,234,000 1,246,000 1,255,000 1,270,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
In Metric Tons
Preliminary.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Honey in the United States
Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Imports Domestic Total D i sa p Stocks U.S. Pro- for Conduction sumption pearance Jan. 1
Number of Yield Per Colonies Colony (1,000) Pounds
2,620 2,506 2,574 2,599 2,556 2,410
Preliminary.
2
84.1 74.0 66.7 70.0 71.8 72.5
Forecast.
85.3 64.6 39.4 40.8 61.2 62.4 3
220.3 185.5 171.7 181.7 183.6 174.6
Fiscal year.
198.5 144.8 202.6 200.4 178.8
In Millions of Pounds
Exports
Total Supply
10.1 7.4 6.9 6.9 7.8
----------------
----------------
------- Program Activity ------Net Gov't ExpendCCC Placed iture3 Take Under Over Loan Mil. $
----------------
----------------
National Domestic Avg. Price Avg. Price Support All Honey - Cents Per Pound -
----------------
59.7 70.4 132.7 138.7 106.9 90.4
----------------
P er Capita Consumption Pounds
----------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production and Yield of Honey in the United States Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
------------------------ Production in Thousands of Pounds ----------------------CaliMinneNorth South fornia Florida sota Dakota Dakota Total
30,800 27,625 23,500 32,160 17,550 30,000
Preliminary.
24,360 22,000 20,460 14,910 20,090 13,760
13,500 10,935 8,541 9,960 10,125 8,880
34,500 26,880 24,000 29,580 30,420 33,670
28,435 15,275 11,475 15,050 22,575 17,380
220,339 185,461 171,718 181,727 183,582 174,643
Value of -------------------- Yield per Colony in Pounds---------------------Production CaliMinneNorth South $1,000 fornia Florida sota Dakota Dakota Average
132,742 132,225 228,338 253,106 196,259 157,795
70 65 50 67 45 75
105 100 93 71 98 86
90 81 73 83 75 74
115 96 75 87 78 91
121 65 51 70 105 79
84.1 74.0 66.7 70.0 71.8 72.5
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
131
Interest Rates, U.S. US interest rates can be characterized in two main ways, by credit quality and maturity. Credit quality refers to the level of risk associated with a particular borrower. US Treasury securities, for example, carry the lowest risk. Maturity refers to the time at which the security matures and must be repaid. Treasury securities carry the full spectrum of maturities, from short-term cash management bills, to Tbills (4-weeks, 3-months, and 6-months), T-notes (2-year, 3year, 5-year and 10-year), and 30-year T-bonds. The most active futures markets are the Treasury note and bond futures traded at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Eurodollar futures traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Prices – 10-year US Treasury note yields traded in a narrow range in 2005, remaining within the slightly wider range seen in 2004. The 10-year T-note yield posted the year’s high of 4.69% in March 2005 and the low of 3.80% in June 2005, closing the year at 4.39%, up 17 basis points from the 2004 close of 4.22%. The 5-year T-note showed more of an upward trend during the year, moving higher to post a new 3-1/2 year high yield of 4.57% in November 2005 and closing 2005 at 4.35%, up 74 basis points from the 2004 close of 3.61%. The 30-year T-bond yield moved lower in the first half of the year to post a new 2-1/2 year low of 4.15%, but then moved higher in the latter half of the year to close 2005 at 4.54%, down 29 basis points from the 2004 close of 4.83%. The 3-month cash Eurodollar rate moved steadily higher during 2005 to close at 4.54%, up 198 basis points from the 2004 close of 2.56% and up 344 basis points from the 1.10% level that prevailed before the Fed’s tightening started in June 2004.
U.S. Producer Price Index2 for All Commodities Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
1982 = 100
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
126.3 129.7 125.4 122.9 128.3 140.0 128.5 135.3 141.4 150.9
126.2 128.5 125.0 122.3 129.8 137.4 128.4 137.6 142.1 151.6
126.4 127.3 124.7 122.6 130.8 135.9 129.8 141.2 143.1 153.7
127.4 127.0 124.9 123.6 130.7 136.4 130.8 136.8 144.8 155.0
128.1 127.4 125.1 124.7 131.6 136.8 130.8 136.7 146.8 154.3
128.0 127.2 124.8 125.2 133.8 135.5 130.9 138.0 147.2 154.3
128.0 126.9 124.9 125.7 133.7 133.4 131.2 137.7 147.4 156.3
128.3 127.2 124.2 126.9 132.9 133.4 131.5 138.0 148.0 157.6
128.2 127.5 123.8 128.0 134.7 133.3 132.3 138.5 147.7 162.2
128.0 127.8 124.0 127.7 135.4 130.3 133.2 139.3 150.0 166.2
128.2 127.9 123.6 128.3 135.0 129.8 133.1 138.9 151.4 163.6
129.1 126.8 122.8 127.8 136.2 128.1 132.9 139.5 150.2 163.0
127.7 127.6 124.4 125.5 132.7 134.2 131.1 138.1 146.7 157.4
Year
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
1982-84 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.8 175.1 177.1 181.7 185.2 190.7
154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.8 175.8 177.8 183.1 186.2 191.8
155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.2 176.2 178.8 184.2 187.4 193.3
156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.3 176.9 179.8 183.8 188.0 194.6
156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.5 177.7 179.8 183.5 189.1 194.4
156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.4 178.0 179.9 183.7 189.7 194.5
157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.8 177.5 180.1 183.9 189.4 195.4
157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.6 189.5 196.4
157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.2 189.9 198.8
158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 185.0 190.9 199.2
158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.3 184.5 191.0 197.6
158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 180.9 184.3 190.3 196.8
156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0 188.9 195.3
Preliminary.
132
Treasury yields were also held down in 2005 by continued heavy buying by foreign central banks (mainly from China, Japan and South Korea), which were forced to mop up the glut of dollars that flowed into their countries via the massive US current account deficit. China was a huge buyer of Treasury securities as it struggled to maintain its official yuan fix and prevent the yuan from appreciating in response to China’s growing trade surplus. Foreign central banks bought about 41% of the Treasury’s coupon auctions in 2005.
F eb.
U.S. Consumer Price Index2 for All Urban Consumers
1
Due to elevated energy prices, the US CPI index moved higher in 2004 and 2005 to a 14-year high of +4.7% in September 2005 but then fell back to +3.4% in December 2005. In any case, elevated energy prices did not seep into core prices in 2005, allowing the core CPI to remain subdued and allowing T-note yields to remain low. Specifically, the core CPI rose from +1.1% in late 2003 to a 3-year high of +2.4% in February 2005, but then fell back to the low 2% area later in 2005.
Jan.
Preliminary.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Short-term interest rates in 2005 extended the rise that began in June 2004 when the US Federal Reserve started its monetary policy tightening process by raising its federal funds rate target. The Fed raised its funds rate target by a total of 325 basis points in 2004 and 2005 to the 4.25% level by the end of 2005. The 3-month Libor rate marched steadily higher in line with the Fed’s rate increases. However, the 10-year T-note yield remained remarkably flat in 2005, moving sideways despite the tighter Fed policy. The 10-year Tnote yield remained subdued because core US inflation remained under control despite the surge in energy prices seen in 2004-2005.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Average Open Interest of 3-month Eurodollar Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
2,519.4 2,190.8 2,713.4 2,917.9 2,971.3 3,576.4 4,592.0 4,007.1 5,128.0 7,163.3
2,638.6 2,333.2 2,821.5 3,039.5 3,261.4 3,878.6 4,937.0 4,500.1 5,624.1 7,858.5
2,511.4 2,423.1 2,797.9 2,973.5 3,138.7 4,117.4 4,727.9 4,517.3 5,640.5 8,124.1
2,483.5 2,523.1 2,892.6 2,894.7 3,156.6 4,109.3 4,411.6 4,448.6 5,602.2 8,244.1
2,571.8 2,671.3 3,089.0 3,183.2 3,331.7 4,316.3 4,421.0 5,098.7 6,060.0 8,604.5
2,590.1 2,706.5 3,093.9 3,208.8 3,272.1 4,471.7 4,295.5 5,514.2 6,117.3 8,045.7
2,504.4 2,699.2 3,027.7 3,064.4 3,160.3 4,452.4 4,123.7 5,218.4 6,026.7 7,416.0
2,485.5 2,788.0 3,223.0 3,115.6 3,225.7 4,753.5 4,482.4 5,277.9 6,236.3 8,044.7
2,392.4 2,769.3 3,359.9 2,904.0 3,181.8 4,567.8 4,243.4 5,034.1 5,992.8 8,054.2
2,349.7 2,815.1 3,303.4 2,918.2 3,067.2 4,524.0 4,237.9 4,935.4 5,968.9 8,471.9
2,378.2 2,799.5 3,297.4 2,879.7 3,201.1 4,950.8 4,553.7 5,024.2 6,527.8 9,264.8
2,225.7 2,661.6 3,000.1 2,859.4 3,349.7 4,559.1 4,072.5 4,936.1 6,706.7 9,145.1
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of 3-month Eurodollar Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
7,486 7,903 10,908 7,471 8,380 17,515 19,487 13,534 20,809 27,794
9,267 6,918 7,861 7,675 9,723 12,908 14,491 12,315 16,042 28,549
9,526 8,936 8,842 8,719 10,198 15,479 17,987 18,275 22,584 34,472
6,872 9,352 9,488 7,347 10,172 15,192 17,947 15,393 26,674 42,437
7,414 8,447 7,202 8,957 10,261 15,691 18,717 19,403 25,549 36,600
7,415 8,050 8,350 9,650 9,791 14,310 17,932 21,163 28,067 37,997
8,323 7,292 5,452 7,746 7,385 12,673 20,367 18,733 25,114 26,795
6,968 9,295 9,811 8,898 7,010 14,948 17,758 18,724 24,859 32,921
8,232 7,635 13,594 7,629 8,205 16,776 15,310 18,817 32,283 45,483
7,014 12,570 11,757 7,501 9,276 14,139 18,496 20,004 25,737 35,149
5,057 6,314 9,628 6,223 7,561 21,150 13,349 15,432 27,945 34,776
5,308 7,058 6,579 5,604 10,152 13,234 10,240 16,978 21,920 27,382
88,883 99,770 109,473 93,418 108,115 184,015 202,081 208,771 297,584 410,355
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
133
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
20,194 20,599 39,649 39,971 34,325 82,168 86,505 107,084 161,948 287,341
26,865 23,027 40,462 40,747 43,026 79,389 103,331 114,234 195,229 345,687
21,125 22,750 40,840 40,339 44,512 81,688 103,568 123,909 186,836 329,608
17,494 24,090 40,899 40,078 43,772 72,517 87,850 108,979 172,374 307,013
16,606 29,379 46,833 34,731 49,033 66,185 102,040 120,264 198,864 341,492
17,547 33,225 47,241 35,959 51,216 63,601 105,931 118,776 210,667 372,896
15,758 36,047 44,701 35,349 55,806 56,610 99,383 112,052 191,740 362,299
16,849 47,253 48,888 37,624 53,449 72,951 107,955 149,099 207,103 371,076
17,792 44,003 47,030 38,693 47,912 74,353 110,434 151,922 216,394 364,420
17,730 40,960 37,245 38,157 53,338 65,433 108,089 144,646 205,549 351,255
19,247 37,785 38,222 38,702 60,894 72,697 115,503 149,014 221,643 357,270
20,309 37,701 40,303 34,135 77,860 71,270 113,618 156,506 248,517 363,186
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
38.7 98.9 32.4 93.9 77.1 104.3 64.5 132.7 51.5 159.3 174.6 299.2 195.0 332.9 146.8 392.9 310.4 829.8 953.7 1,997.5
Mar.
134
May
In Thousands of Contracts
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
51.9 28.1 60.1 46.0 79.0 44.5 100.2 102.7 107.1 52.0 140.9 123.3 67.0 62.9 132.3 93.6 97.9 76.9 160.2 105.2 160.9 194.8 274.0 163.3 290.4 159.2 377.0 242.9 292.5 153.3 513.9 339.2 630.0 462.4 872.2 788.8 1,706.1 1,548.3 2,306.3 1,811.4
38.0 53.1 59.4 46.5 43.0 93.4 177.0 274.1 406.7 1,153.0
61.8 138.5 177.4 139.2 181.0 316.4 377.0 514.0 1,009.9 2,144.2
58.7 97.0 160.1 71.3 107.4 198.1 253.0 522.8 1,014.5 2,118.0
25.5 68.5 93.1 44.0 97.4 122.9 174.8 281.1 678.0 1,344.1
69.0 107.8 140.7 124.1 287.6 303.8 387.2 496.7 1,393.3 2,451.5
61.0 100.6 72.9 72.3 126.5 160.6 232.3 488.5 1,058.5 1,671.3
637.8 1,018.3 1,308.4 1,050.1 1,493.8 2,462.0 3,198.7 4,415.9 9,454.8 21,205.4
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Apr.
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
163.0 176.7 257.1 290.4 387.0 377.7 507.2 685.1 874.2 1,160.2
184.5 208.9 270.0 268.6 475.5 392.0 576.2 743.2 1,008.1 1,237.0
200.3 219.5 282.3 247.5 420.8 374.5 585.6 777.8 987.2 1,325.0
191.7 235.5 277.5 246.9 417.9 376.9 632.2 835.5 1,043.0 1,383.0
180.0 227.9 274.1 311.1 428.2 436.3 656.4 856.3 1,145.4 1,320.9
177.4 225.7 257.2 348.6 379.6 422.0 594.9 827.5 1,118.5 1,127.9
174.5 226.3 264.8 325.3 402.7 461.0 554.9 781.7 1,217.3 1,247.7
179.6 225.8 389.1 341.5 405.1 483.3 652.8 840.4 1,322.5 1,450.3
154.8 234.3 382.9 298.9 372.8 451.4 655.0 737.0 1,168.1 1,190.2
138.2 233.5 383.8 328.6 373.7 463.2 662.5 819.4 1,099.4 1,342.0
155.8 248.4 353.4 272.6 381.4 554.6 720.7 925.6 1,290.7 1,397.6
154.8 257.9 326.9 288.5 380.2 491.1 692.8 880.1 1,318.7 1,126.8
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago
In Thousands of Contracts
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
837 928 1,452 1,120 1,801 2,423 2,868 4,436 5,857 7,798
1,312 1,157 1,482 1,554 2,874 2,592 3,826 5,178 7,389 11,168
1,085 1,271 1,391 1,337 2,010 2,281 3,848 5,534 7,776 11,849
816 984 1,155 1,115 1,708 2,063 3,092 4,624 7,793 10,720
1,135 1,191 1,281 1,906 2,548 3,222 4,638 7,268 10,979 12,320
878 1,144 1,377 1,544 1,757 2,264 4,096 6,166 9,458 9,164
882 761 944 1,166 1,189 1,702 4,437 6,463 7,110 7,698
1,062 1,245 2,481 2,164 2,253 2,697 5,354 7,090 10,656 12,663
979 1,244 1,913 1,034 1,516 2,617 4,859 7,454 10,312 11,000
690 1,314 1,583 1,245 1,774 2,526 5,027 6,364 7,686 8,511
831 1,068 1,723 1,607 2,260 4,053 5,013 6,885 11,037 11,996
957 1,183 1,279 1,193 1,643 2,684 3,453 6,286 9,417 7,021
11,463 13,489 18,060 16,984 23,332 31,122 50,512 73,746 105,469 121,909
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
135
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
260.4 332.3 430.3 528.5 595.2 550.3 572.9 772.9 1,145.9 1,671.3
297.9 343.7 508.0 549.5 653.8 541.6 643.9 896.9 1,320.6 1,888.6
285.5 324.0 474.9 515.4 571.9 560.0 679.6 914.9 1,312.9 1,980.2
319.2 348.7 494.4 510.1 615.6 595.1 699.1 897.1 1,347.7 2,003.5
331.0 350.8 533.2 541.1 621.4 628.7 806.5 968.1 1,392.4 2,140.8
293.4 336.9 513.4 574.5 583.9 512.1 793.0 993.6 1,300.3 1,869.0
302.3 363.7 512.2 588.3 608.4 550.2 877.6 1,009.5 1,348.2 1,859.3
326.4 407.1 604.9 623.8 602.1 627.3 958.3 1,032.5 1,456.6 1,992.8
291.2 387.3 555.3 607.3 547.6 610.4 888.7 856.2 1,503.6 1,749.4
284.6 398.6 482.9 653.1 564.6 590.3 970.2 985.7 1,626.9 1,677.7
313.3 405.0 508.3 582.0 555.2 662.0 938.0 1,140.7 1,767.4 1,778.6
303.7 374.4 503.5 487.9 508.9 559.9 751.6 965.0 1,642.0 1,635.6
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,649 1,781 2,394 2,269 3,557 4,633 5,540 9,121 13,608 13,901
2,313 1,940 2,749 3,562 4,975 4,915 6,407 10,746 14,569 19,565
2,076 2,052 2,817 2,994 3,750 4,501 6,521 11,321 16,984 21,133
1,632 1,703 2,342 2,145 3,530 4,299 5,463 9,377 16,478 19,487
2,211 2,026 2,696 3,519 4,712 5,483 8,309 13,817 17,786 22,689
1,716 1,942 2,682 3,153 3,706 4,084 7,548 12,149 15,184 16,779
1,556 1,510 1,704 2,438 2,581 3,493 8,981 15,285 12,954 13,895
1,866 2,536 3,632 3,736 4,460 5,683 10,590 14,249 17,419 20,120
1,810 2,063 3,560 2,509 3,780 4,390 8,529 13,707 18,468 18,348
1,495 2,594 2,883 2,471 3,824 4,145 11,199 13,587 16,622 15,357
1,905 1,826 2,912 3,202 4,514 7,270 9,679 12,475 21,006 20,705
1,711 1,991 2,112 2,048 3,313 4,690 7,020 10,912 15,039 13,144
21,940 23,962 32,483 34,046 46,701 57,586 95,786 146,745 196,119 215,124
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
136
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
382,001 497,539 744,894 657,180 637,023 413,244 468,455 420,797 488,484 674,170
403,403 545,775 764,309 801,115 612,298 479,165 520,573 506,910 571,445 792,247
395,338 509,573 766,233 664,131 530,957 519,987 479,939 487,277 557,595 749,403
381,926 493,511 806,559 618,453 503,412 509,558 463,100 449,286 488,921 710,061
May
June
July
In Contracts
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
413,944 443,644 464,145 471,203 554,418 480,669 530,011 608,474 888,215 1,040,659 1,084,889 1,061,223 717,453 674,225 672,983 748,974 434,771 390,928 394,075 440,437 503,194 455,799 458,613 531,098 472,778 458,020 427,896 465,971 566,887 596,186 554,632 521,928 553,721 512,566 517,893 594,905 735,910 665,235 579,724 600,565
420,622 624,231 837,986 647,816 402,156 525,972 496,815 423,995 584,416 595,736
409,950 723,321 769,932 621,816 399,880 567,177 467,440 443,177 594,353 586,653
463,731 719,186 782,677 637,656 443,282 602,647 459,877 489,185 640,026 618,647
479,086 737,703 662,025 561,919 445,386 478,418 440,225 471,848 634,008 574,121
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
7,528.6 8,781.4 8,104.7 7,522.8 9,595.3 9,368.1 8,075.2 10,031.5 7,966.4 8,157.4 5,123.0 5,545.9 4,132.7 4,721.1 3,625.3 4,840.9 5,025.4 5,762.8 6,134.8 8,973.5
7,199.3 7,493.3 9,763.9 8,667.5 5,378.6 5,196.3 4,504.8 5,106.9 6,687.9 8,573.7
6,010.6 7,519.9 8,516.7 7,196.9 5,282.3 4,584.0 3,932.8 3,795.0 5,983.2 7,293.5
May
June
7,932.3 6,520.6 8,339.1 7,400.2 9,054.1 10,208.6 9,555.8 8,072.1 5,972.9 4,458.6 6,022.2 4,233.2 5,191.4 4,722.2 7,188.4 5,896.2 6,463.8 5,556.9 8,558.9 7,407.2
July
Aug.
In Thousands of Contracts Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
6,422.1 6,625.8 6,926.1 6,772.4 7,679.8 10,228.1 8,356.2 12,467.6 8,070.9 12,024.8 11,159.2 10,698.1 6,415.1 7,995.2 6,559.6 6,301.1 3,080.0 4,709.9 4,529.2 4,460.4 3,347.0 4,965.6 4,331.0 4,598.6 5,157.9 5,666.5 4,534.5 5,190.1 6,352.1 6,198.0 5,738.4 5,121.8 4,540.1 6,343.5 7,638.7 5,658.6 5,367.0 7,771.3 7,193.6 6,450.4
7,297.7 7,735.5 8,155.0 6,909.0 5,072.8 6,746.4 4,722.8 4,823.4 7,374.2 7,928.8
D e c.
Total
6,708.4 84,725.1 6,980.4 99,827.7 5,609.2 112,224.1 4,263.5 90,042.3 3,682.3 62,750.8 3,886.0 58,579.3 3,605.6 56,082.3 4,835.2 63,521.5 5,914.0 72,949.0 5,274.0 86,926.6
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
137
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
U.S. Federal Funds Rate
In Percent
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5.56 5.25 5.56 4.63 5.46 5.98 1.73 1.24 1.00 2.28
5.22 5.19 5.51 4.76 5.73 5.49 1.74 1.26 1.01 2.50
5.31 5.39 5.49 4.81 5.85 5.31 1.73 1.25 1.00 2.63
5.22 5.51 5.45 4.74 6.02 4.80 1.75 1.26 1.00 2.79
5.56 5.50 5.49 4.74 6.27 4.21 1.75 1.26 1.00 3.00
5.27 5.56 5.56 4.76 6.53 3.97 1.75 1.22 1.03 3.04
5.40 5.52 5.54 4.99 6.54 3.77 1.73 1.01 1.26 3.26
5.22 5.54 5.55 5.07 6.50 3.65 1.74 1.03 1.43 3.50
5.30 5.54 5.51 5.22 6.52 3.07 1.75 1.01 1.61 3.62
5.24 5.50 5.07 5.20 6.51 2.49 1.75 1.01 1.76 3.78
5.31 5.52 4.83 5.42 6.51 2.09 1.34 1.00 1.93 4.00
5.29 5.50 4.68 5.30 6.40 1.82 1.24 0.98 2.16 4.16
5.30 5.46 5.35 4.97 6.24 3.89 1.67 1.13 1.35 3.21
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
U.S. Municipal Bond Yield1
In Percent
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5.43 5.72 5.06 5.02 6.08 5.10 5.16 4.90 4.61 4.41
5.43 5.63 5.10 5.03 6.00 5.18 5.11 4.81 4.55 4.35
5.79 5.76 5.21 5.10 5.83 5.13 5.29 4.76 4.41 4.57
5.94 5.88 5.23 5.08 5.75 5.27 5.22 4.74 4.82 4.46
5.98 5.70 5.20 5.18 6.00 5.29 5.19 4.41 5.07 4.31
6.02 5.53 5.12 5.37 5.80 5.20 5.09 4.33 5.05 4.23
5.92 5.35 5.14 5.36 5.63 5.20 5.02 4.74 4.87 4.31
5.76 5.41 5.10 5.58 5.51 5.03 4.95 5.10 4.70 4.32
5.87 5.39 4.99 5.69 5.56 5.09 4.74 4.92 4.56 4.29
5.72 5.38 4.93 5.92 5.59 5.05 4.88 4.89 4.49 4.48
5.59 5.33 5.03 5.86 5.54 5.04 4.95 4.73 4.52 4.57
5.64 5.19 4.98 5.95 5.22 5.25 4.85 4.65 4.48 4.46
5.76 5.52 5.09 5.43 5.71 5.15 5.04 4.75 4.68 4.40
1
20-bond average.
138
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
U.S. Industrial Production Index1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
1997 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
112.4 121.3 130.3 134.1 143.6 143.9 109.0 111.2 113.2 106.9
113.8 122.1 130.2 134.5 144.3 143.5 109.2 111.6 114.4 107.4
113.2 122.5 130.7 135.1 145.2 142.9 109.6 110.8 114.1 107.3
114.3 123.1 131.3 135.5 146.3 142.0 110.1 110.1 114.7 107.2
114.8 123.3 131.9 136.2 147.2 141.6 110.4 110.0 115.5 107.4
115.5 123.5 130.6 136.6 147.9 140.3 110.8 110.0 115.1 108.3
115.5 124.5 130.5 137.4 147.6 140.4 111.6 110.8 115.9 108.3
115.8 125.2 132.4 137.7 148.7 140.0 111.3 110.9 116.0 108.6
116.0 125.6 131.9 138.1 148.8 138.5 111.2 111.5 105.1 107.2
116.2 129.3 134.1 139.1 146.3 137.7 111.0 111.8 105.8 108.2
120.6 129.9 133.8 141.9 145.8 108.8 111.2 112.7 106.0 109.1
120.9 130.3 133.8 142.8 145.1 108.3 110.6 112.9 106.7 109.8
119.5 127.0 132.4 139.2 145.7 111.5 111.0 110.9 111.9 108.0
Total I ndex of the Federal Reserve I ndex of Quantity Output, seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
1
2
Preliminary.
U.S. Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 1
--------------- Gross Domestic Product --------------First Second Third Fourth Annual Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Average
7,624 8,114 8,587 9,067 9,629 10,022 10,333 10,717 11,457 12,199
7,777 8,250 8,658 9,174 9,823 10,129 10,427 10,845 11,666 12,378
7,866 8,382 8,790 9,314 9,862 10,135 10,527 11,087 11,819 12,606
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates.
8,000 8,471 8,954 9,520 9,954 10,226 10,591 11,236 11,995 2
In Billions of Constant Dollars1
-------------------- National Income -------------------First Second Third Fourth Annual Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Average
-------------------- Personal Income -------------------First Second Third Fourth Annual Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Average
7,817 6,677 6,797 6,877 7,010 6,840 6,371 6,491 6,566 6,655 6,521 8,304 7,115 7,220 7,361 7,473 7,292 6,773 6,847 6,957 7,084 6,915 8,747 7,573 7,688 7,823 7,927 7,753 7,247 7,376 7,486 7,583 7,423 9,268 8,074 8,161 8,255 8,456 8,237 7,658 7,729 7,824 7,999 7,802 9,817 8,681 8,750 8,858 8,892 8,795 8,266 8,372 8,514 8,566 8,430 10,128 8,988 9,002 8,890 9,040 8,980 8,689 8,720 8,733 8,755 8,724 10,470 9,131 9,212 9,248 9,327 9,229 8,815 8,892 8,895 8,926 8,882 10,971 9,434 9,573 9,732 9,905 9,661 9,014 9,119 9,215 9,329 9,169 11,734 10,091 10,211 10,242 10,559 10,276 9,485 9,614 9,729 10,025 9,713 12,394 10,750 10,878 10,720 10,783 10,073 10,186 10,231 10,163
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
139
INTEREST RATES, U.S. U.S. Money Supply M12 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Billions of Dollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1,122.8 1,080.0 1,073.5 1,096.3 1,121.6 1,096.5 1,188.7 1,224.3 1,303.4 1,364.3
1,118.3 1,077.5 1,077.7 1,096.7 1,109.6 1,102.4 1,191.9 1,239.6 1,321.8 1,371.6
1,122.1 1,071.0 1,076.9 1,097.3 1,109.2 1,111.1 1,194.8 1,242.6 1,334.5 1,378.5
1,124.8 1,062.6 1,076.2 1,101.1 1,113.8 1,115.5 1,185.9 1,250.1 1,334.3 1,361.0
1,116.3 1,062.9 1,077.6 1,102.2 1,106.0 1,120.1 1,190.9 1,271.7 1,338.6 1,373.5
1,114.6 1,065.1 1,076.0 1,098.7 1,103.7 1,127.3 1,193.8 1,282.7 1,345.0 1,374.4
1,111.6 1,065.3 1,074.4 1,097.9 1,103.5 1,139.6 1,199.4 1,286.3 1,337.4 1,354.4
1,100.9 1,073.8 1,074.3 1,097.9 1,100.1 1,149.9 1,186.6 1,295.4 1,355.0 1,371.0
1,094.8 1,066.7 1,078.4 1,095.6 1,098.2 1,203.1 1,193.9 1,295.5 1,359.1 1,363.4
1,085.1 1,065.1 1,084.3 1,101.2 1,097.4 1,164.7 1,202.6 1,296.4 1,360.2 1,367.6
1,081.9 1,069.1 1,093.0 1,110.3 1,091.6 1,170.3 1,208.5 1,297.8 1,375.8 1,372.7
1,079.8 1,072.2 1,094.8 1,122.6 1,087.0 1,182.0 1,219.2 1,305.1 1,373.5 1,372.3
1,106.1 1,069.3 1,079.8 1,101.5 1,103.5 1,140.2 1,196.3 1,273.9 1,344.9 1,368.7
Preliminary. 2 M1 -- The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. Seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
1
U.S. Money Supply M22 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Billions of Dollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3,658.1 3,828.7 4,054.2 4,404.0 4,675.8 4,987.8 5,481.5 5,836.6 6,098.7 6,449.1
3,672.8 3,839.5 4,086.5 4,431.1 4,691.7 5,028.5 5,510.5 5,873.3 6,139.0 6,464.3
3,697.5 3,854.5 4,113.6 4,441.4 4,722.4 5,089.5 5,519.7 5,889.9 6,178.0 6,484.5
3,708.7 3,870.8 4,136.7 4,472.1 4,770.6 5,149.1 5,521.1 5,926.0 6,215.2 6,481.5
3,719.3 3,883.9 4,157.3 4,491.5 4,764.1 5,150.9 5,547.3 5,980.6 6,273.2 6,482.8
3,732.6 3,902.0 4,183.6 4,512.8 4,781.7 5,188.6 5,567.8 6,022.4 6,284.1 6,515.6
3,747.9 3,921.7 4,202.0 4,537.1 4,793.4 5,218.8 5,611.1 6,067.0 6,285.7 6,525.1
3,756.5 3,950.6 4,227.4 4,558.0 4,828.2 5,253.0 5,649.8 6,112.5 6,306.5 6,554.4
3,766.3 3,970.0 4,269.3 4,573.7 4,860.1 5,362.0 5,674.8 6,094.1 6,341.2 6,588.0
3,780.0 3,987.8 4,310.7 4,592.2 4,878.8 5,357.5 5,726.2 6,086.2 6,369.3 6,627.2
3,794.3 4,008.9 4,349.9 4,618.1 4,889.1 5,402.0 5,772.4 6,081.6 6,406.5 6,652.9
3,814.7 4,030.0 4,382.2 4,647.5 4,930.7 5,451.1 5,802.9 6,085.2 6,430.7 6,691.6
3,737.4 3,920.7 4,206.1 4,523.3 4,798.9 5,219.9 5,615.4 6,004.6 6,277.3 6,543.1
Preliminary. 2 M2 -- M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. Seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
1
U.S. Money Supply M32 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Billions of Dollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
4,670.1 5,013.2 5,508.8 6,080.7 6,605.8 7,237.4 8,067.4 8,594.0 8,942.5 9,502.9
4,698.4 5,041.7 5,541.3 6,129.5 6,637.7 7,306.2 8,113.2 8,631.4 9,006.6 9,539.0
4,734.5 5,080.2 5,611.5 6,133.6 6,705.9 7,373.0 8,122.8 8,649.1 9,081.9 9,568.9
4,752.4 5,119.8 5,647.3 6,172.3 6,766.1 7,506.1 8,144.2 8,680.2 9,144.3 9,620.7
4,788.7 5,147.1 5,686.9 6,201.0 6,776.9 7,564.2 8,177.2 8,737.1 9,233.2 9,662.8
4,811.9 5,177.4 5,728.4 6,237.7 6,823.9 7,643.7 8,191.2 8,790.5 9,270.8 9,748.2
4,838.1 5,235.8 5,750.0 6,269.0 6,874.4 7,688.2 8,240.8 8,882.7 9,273.2 9,776.8
4,858.2 5,291.4 5,815.0 6,299.1 6,944.4 7,691.9 8,296.8 8,913.5 9,308.5 9,878.8
D e c.
Average
4,884.9 4,926.1 4,946.0 4,985.3 5,332.3 5,376.3 5,417.1 5,460.5 5,882.0 5,953.7 6,010.1 6,051.9 6,323.0 6,378.4 6,464.1 6,551.8 7,002.7 7,027.0 7,037.7 7,117.7 7,849.9 7,893.5 7,969.7 8,037.2 8,334.3 8,373.2 8,500.2 8,575.6 8,909.2 8,904.1 8,885.0 8,885.3 9,358.8 9,369.9 9,401.4 9,450.5 9,976.3 10,058.2 10,099.0 10,191.6
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
4,824.6 5,224.4 5,765.6 6,270.0 6,860.0 7,646.7 8,261.4 8,788.5 9,236.8 9,801.9
Preliminary. 2 M3 -- M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
1
U.S. Money Supply MZM2 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Billions of Dollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2,995.8 3,207.3 3,490.9 4,004.2 4,365.8 4,767.7 5,709.8 6,173.1 6,410.8 6,683.1
3,017.0 3,224.0 3,527.7 4,049.0 4,375.3 4,868.8 5,758.3 6,203.9 6,444.2 6,668.7
3,048.2 3,245.9 3,564.0 4,061.6 4,413.7 4,956.8 5,777.4 6,210.2 6,493.5 6,671.4
3,061.4 3,262.0 3,602.9 4,106.4 4,458.9 5,055.3 5,796.1 6,233.5 6,541.3 6,667.9
3,075.0 3,275.6 3,638.5 4,135.1 4,455.0 5,109.0 5,831.4 6,276.4 6,606.3 6,648.7
3,093.2 3,296.4 3,676.9 4,164.5 4,471.3 5,188.0 5,852.7 6,328.9 6,616.4 6,682.3
3,112.9 3,322.2 3,704.6 4,189.2 4,500.1 5,243.1 5,897.8 6,425.4 6,602.8 6,687.4
3,123.2 3,356.5 3,745.6 4,218.2 4,544.9 5,273.9 5,934.4 6,455.0 6,616.5 6,717.5
3,135.0 3,384.4 3,804.1 4,234.5 4,594.2 5,447.0 5,957.8 6,451.2 6,643.8 6,765.3
3,148.0 3,406.9 3,866.9 4,257.4 4,611.2 5,509.0 5,975.1 6,426.9 6,644.2 6,802.8
3,166.0 3,430.2 3,925.1 4,293.8 4,623.0 5,587.3 6,092.9 6,407.3 6,669.0 6,813.1
3,192.0 3,459.4 3,972.3 4,332.1 4,677.8 5,675.4 6,161.5 6,396.9 6,688.1 6,862.3
3,097.3 3,322.6 3,710.0 4,170.5 4,507.6 5,223.4 5,895.4 6,332.4 6,581.4 6,722.5
Preliminary. 2 MZM (money, zero maturity) -- M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, those included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM was coined by William Poole (1991); the aggregate itself was proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
1
140
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Percent ----- Prime Rate - - - Discount Rate
Percent ----- Municipal Bonds - - - Corporate AAA Bonds
141
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
-------------
142
Percent Prime Rate 30-Year Bond Discount Rate 3-Month Treasury Bill
Interest Rates, Worldwide Interest rate futures contracts are widely traded throughout the world. The most popular futures contracts are generally 10-year government bonds and the 3-month interest rate contracts. In Europe, futures on German interest rates are traded at the all-electronic Eurex Exchange in Frankfurt. Futures on UK interest rates are traded at the Liffe Exchange in London. Futures on Canadian interest rates are traded at the Montreal Exchange. Futures on Japanese interest rates are traded at the Singapore Exchange (Simex) and at the Tokyo Stock Exchange. A variety of other interest rate futures contracts are traded throughout the rest of the world (please see the front of this Yearbook for a complete list). Euro-Zone – The Eurex 10-year Euro Bund futures contract in early 2005 extended the rally that began in mid2004 and reached a record high of 124.60 in September 2005. However, the Bund contract then backed off in late 2005 and closed the year at 121.84, up 3.25 points from the 2004 close of 118.59. The German 10-year government bond yield in 2005 fell through most of the year and hit a multi-year low of 3.00% in September 2005 but then rose through yearend to close 2005 at 3.31%, down 37 basis points from the 2004 close of 3.68%. The 3-month Euribor rate in 2005 remained locked just above the European Central Bank’s 2week refinancing rate of 2.00% during most of the year, but then started rising near year-end as the market discounted a rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). The 3month Euribor closed 2005 at 2.49%, up 34 basis points from the 2004 close of 2.15%. The ECB left its refinancing rate unchanged at 2.00% through most of 2005 due to weak GDP growth. However, the ECB finally raised its refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on December 1, 2005, in response to stronger GDP growth and concern about above-target inflation. The Eurozone GDP growth rate was weak at +1.2% yr/yr in the first half of 2005 but then improved to +1.6% yr/ yr in Q3. The Eurozone CPI moved higher during 2005 to post a 4-1/2 year high of +2.6% in September 2005 but then fell back to +2.2% by December. Still, that was the seventh consecutive year that inflation has remained above the ECB’s ceiling of 2.0% and the ECB in response finally raised its refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on December 1. Looking into 2006, the market as of January 2006 was expecting another 25 basis point rate hike to 2.50% in March 2006 and a second 25 basis point rate hike to 2.75% by the end of 2006. UK – The Liffe 10-year Gilt futures contract in 2005 extended the rally that started in mid-2004 and closed the year at 114.45, up 2.89 points from the 2004 close of 111.56. The 10-year Gilt yield fell during most of 2005 and closed the year at 4.10%, which was a 2-1/2 year low and was down 44 basis points from the 2004 close of 4.54%. The 3-month UK Libor rate traded just below 5.0% in the first half of 2005
but then dropped about 50 basis points during spring and trade sideways near 4.60% through the second half of the year, closing 2005 at 4.64%. The drop in UK rates in the latter half of 2005 was due to the Bank of England’s 25 basis point cut in the base rate on August 4, 2005 from the 4.75% rate that prevailed in late 2004 and the first half of 2005 to the 4.50% level that then extended through the end of 2005. The Bank of England cut interest rates a notch as UK GDP eased and as inflation remained contained. Canada – The Canadian 10-year T-note futures contract traded at the Montreal Exchange rallied through most of 2005 to post a record high of 117.78 in September 2005 but then fell back late in the year to close at 114.38, up 2.22 points on the year. The 10-year Canadian bond yield fell to a multi-decade low of 3.716% in June and then moved higher later in the year to close the year at 3.91%, down 70 basis points from the 2004 close of 4.21%. The 3-month Canadian Libor rate moved sideways near 2.60% in the first half of the year but then moved sharply higher by about 100 basis points to close 2005 at a 4-year high of 3.49%, up 84 basis points from the 2004 close of 2.65%. The rise in interest rates in the latter half of 2005 was driven by the Bank of Canada’s three 25 bp rate hikes at the end of the year from the 2.50% level that prevailed in the first 8 months of 2005 to 3.25% by the end of the year. Canada’s GDP averaged about +2.6% during the year, and by the end of the year the Bank of Canada became concerned about rising inflation due to energy prices. Japan – The 10-year JGB futures contract at the Simex rallied in the first half of 2005 to post a 2-year high of 141.35 during June and July, but then faded through the second half of the year to close 2005 at 137.35, down slightly by 1.03 points from the 2004 close of 138.38. The 10-year JGB yield moved lower in the first half of 2005 to post a 2-1/4 year low of 1.170% in June, but then moved higher in the latter half of the year to close 2005 at 1.44%, unchanged from the 2004 close. The 3-month Japanese Libor rate during 2005 remained locked below 0.10% where it has been since mid-2001. The Bank of Japan maintained its zero interest rate monetary policy all through 2005. However, Japan’s economy in 2005 finally appeared to be climbing out of hibernation for the first time in a decade. Japan’s real GDP was very strong above +5.0% (qtr-qtr annualized) in the first half of the year before dropping back to +1.0% in Q3-2005. The Japanese stock market rallied sharply in 2005 by 40% to post a new 5-year high on optimism that the Japanese economy was finally on the mend after more than a decade of stagnation. In late 2005, the Bank of Japan started signaling that it was ready to start raising interest rates from the level of essentially zero seen since 1999, but deferred the move after opposition from Japanese politicians.
143
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE
9% through March 1998 contract 7% June 1998 contract to December 2003 contract 6% March 2004 contract to date
144
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE
145
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE
9% through March 2000 contract 6% June 2000 contract to date
146
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE Australia -- Economic Statistics
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
5.4 4.3 3.3 2.7 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.6
5.7 4.9 7.7 6.1 6.5 6.1 7.3 6.4 6.2
4.5 4.9 3.1 2.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 3.6 3.3
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
3.5 2.2 4.8 .6 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.1 3.2
8.3 6.4 .6 -1.9 15.7 8.2 6.1 4.4 4.8
6.9 5.2 2.1 1.3 6.2 6.1 4.9 3.8 3.7
-.2 4.7 10.9 1.8 .3 -2.6 6.4 8.3 9.8
6.0 9.3 7.5 -4.2 11.9 11.0 13.5 7.6 9.1
.9 1.5 4.5 4.4 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.6
7.8 6.9 6.3 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.5
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
1
Canada -- Economic Statistics
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
4.1 5.5 5.2 1.8 3.4 2.0 3.0 3.3 3.1
3.7 7.4 9.6 2.9 4.5 5.3 6.5 6.2 5.3
2.8 3.8 4.0 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.9
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
3.6 3.2 4.2 2.1 1.1 .5 2.1 2.0 2.3
4.4 3.7 5.0 3.8 3.6 2.0 4.0 3.8 4.0
3.6 3.5 2.9 2.8 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.2
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
3.2 2.1 3.1 3.7 2.8 3.8 2.8 3.1 3.1
2.4 7.3 4.7 4.1 2.4 4.9 6.2 5.3 4.5
2.5 4.3 4.8 1.2 3.7 4.6 3.0 3.9 3.2
9.1 10.7 8.9 -2.8 1.1 -2.4 7.7 6.8 5.6
5.1 7.8 8.1 -5.0 1.4 3.8 8.4 9.1 6.3
1.0 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.8 1.9 2.0 1.8
8.3 7.6 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.2
Year
2
Estimate.
3
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
-.1 1.5 3.0 2.9 4.6 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.7
7.2 8.3 8.4 2.1 -1.8 .1 3.5 3.1 3.3
4.2 3.7 4.5 2.0 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.5 2.3
8.4 4.2 13.4 1.9 1.7 -2.6 3.4 6.0 7.5
11.5 6.1 15.2 1.6 3.3 .3 7.7 7.7 7.5
.7 .6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.8
11.5 10.7 9.4 8.7 9.0 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.2
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real Private Consumption
Germany -- Economic Statistics
Projection.
Grossed Fixed Investment
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Year
3
Real Public Consumption
1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
Estimate.
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real Private Consumption
France -- Economic Statistics
2
2
Estimate.
3
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
1.7 1.9 3.1 1.0 .1 -.1 1.2 1.4 2.3
2.8 2.4 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.0 2.1 2.2 3.3
1.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 -.7 .0 -.7 .8 1.9
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
1.9 .8 1.1 1.0 1.9 .1 .1 .0 .1
2.3 3.8 3.4 -4.0 -6.3 -2.2 -2.0 .6 3.4
2.2 2.7 2.1 -.6 -1.9 .5 .3 .9 1.8
6.4 5.1 14.2 6.1 4.1 1.8 8.1 5.7 8.1
8.6 8.1 11.1 1.4 -1.6 3.9 6.4 4.9 7.5
.6 .6 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 .6
8.7 8.0 7.3 7.4 8.2 9.1 9.2 9.3 8.9
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. 2 Estimate. 3 Projection. Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
1
147
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE Italy -- Economic Statistics
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
1.7 1.7 3.2 1.7 .4 .4 1.3 1.7 2.1
4.5 3.3 5.4 4.4 3.4 3.3 4.1 3.8 4.1
3.2 2.6 2.8 .8 .4 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.6
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
.2 1.3 1.7 3.9 1.9 2.2 .7 .6 .3
3.8 5.1 7.3 1.6 1.3 -2.1 3.8 4.9 4.2
3.1 3.2 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.1 2.5
3.4 .1 9.7 1.6 -3.4 -3.9 4.5 6.1 5.4
8.9 5.6 7.1 .5 -.2 -.6 4.3 7.5 6.7
2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.1 2.5 2.2
11.9 11.5 10.7 9.6 9.1 8.8 8.1 7.5 7.3
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
1
Japan -- Economic Statistics
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
-1.1 .1 2.8 .4 -.3 2.5 4.0 2.1 2.3
-1.2 -1.4 .8 -1.1 -1.4 -.1 1.6 .9 2.0
-.1 .2 1.0 1.7 1.0 .8 3.4 2.2 1.7
Sw itz erland -- Economic Statistics
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
2.0 4.6 4.9 3.0 2.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 2.0
-3.9 -.9 2.7 -1.1 -6.1 3.2 2.8 1.2 2.2
-1.5 .2 2.4 1.2 -1.0 1.8 3.2 1.9 1.9
-2.4 1.5 12.4 -6.1 8.0 10.1 14.4 7.4 8.0
-6.6 3.3 9.2 .1 1.9 5.0 9.9 7.1 6.9
.7 -.3 -.7 -.7 -.9 -.3 -.1 .1 .6
4.1 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.2
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
2.8 1.3 3.6 1.0 .3 -.4 1.9 1.9 2.0
2.5 2.0 4.4 1.7 2.0 .5 3.0 3.0 3.1
2.4 2.3 2.3 2.0 .3 .5 1.8 1.6 1.9
2
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
3.1 2.9 3.9 2.3 1.8 2.2 3.2 2.6 2.4
6.0 5.2 5.2 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.4 4.8 4.7
3.9 4.4 4.6 2.9 3.3 2.3 3.0 1.8 1.7
3
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
-.9 .3 2.6 4.2 3.2 1.4 1.0 .2 .4
6.5 1.2 4.3 -3.1 .3 -.3 5.0 4.2 3.8
4.0 .3 2.1 2.3 -.8 .2 2.0 2.2 2.0
3.9 6.5 12.2 .2 -.2 .0 4.1 5.1 5.6
7.5 4.3 9.6 3.2 -2.8 1.4 4.7 6.1 6.0
.0 .8 1.6 1.0 .6 .6 .8 1.2 .9
3.4 2.9 2.5 2.5 3.1 4.0 4.0 3.6 2.8
2
Estimate.
3
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
1.2 3.5 2.3 2.6 3.8 3.5 3.8 1.9 2.0
12.7 1.6 3.6 2.6 2.7 2.2 6.5 5.3 3.5
4.8 3.9 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.5 3.8 2.4 2.0
2.8 4.3 9.4 2.9 .1 .1 2.6 7.9 8.2
9.3 7.9 9.1 4.9 4.1 1.3 4.7 6.5 6.3
1.6 1.3 .8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.1
6.2 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.7 5.0
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
148
Estimate.
Percentage Change from Previous Period
United Kingdom -- Economic Statistics
1
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Real Total Domestic Demand
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Year
Projection.
Grossed Fixed Investment
1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
3
Real Public Consumption
National accounts implicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Year
Estimate.
Percentage Change from Previous Period
1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 20063
2
2
Estimate.
3
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Iron and Steel Iron (symbol Fe) is a soft, malleable, and ductile metallic element. Next to aluminum, iron is the most abundant of all metals. Pure iron melts at about 1535 degrees Celsius and boils at 2750 degrees Celsius. Archaeologists in Egypt discovered the earliest iron implements dating back to about 3000 BC, and iron ornaments were used even earlier.
Australia (17.2%). The US accounted for only 4.0% of world iron ore production in 2004. World production of raw steel (ingots and castings) in 2004 rose +4.9% to 1,020 million metric tons, with the largest producers being China (with 26.7% of world production), Japan (11.1%), and the US (9.8%). US production of steel ingots in 2005 (annualized through August) fell by –5.9% to101.9 million short tons from 108.3 million short tons in 2004. US production of pig iron (excluding ferro-alloys) in 2005 (annualized though August) fell by –8.3% to 40.841 million short tons from 44.520 million short tons in 2004.
Steel is an alloy of iron and carbon, often with an admixture of other elements. The physical properties of various types of steel and steel alloys depend primarily on the amount of carbon present and how it is distributed in the iron. Steel is marketed in a variety of sizes and shapes, such as rods, pipes, railroad rails, tees, channels, and I-beams. Steel mills roll and form heated ingots into the required shapes. The working of steel improves the quality of the steel by refining its crystalline structure and making the metal tougher. There are five classifications of steel: carbon steels, alloy steels, high-strength low-alloy steels, stainless steel, and tool steels.
Demand – US consumption of ferrous scrap and pig iron rose +2.6% yr/yr in 2004 to 105.600 million metric tons, up from 102.900 million metric tons in 2003, which was the lowest level since 1986. The largest consumers of ferrous scrap and pig iron were the manufacturers of pig iron and steel ingots and castings with 90% of consumption at 94.700 million metric tons in 2004. Iron foundries and miscellaneous users accounted for 9% of consumption, and manufacturers of steel castings (scrap) accounted for 1% of consumption.
Prices –In 2005 the average wholesale price for No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap in Chicago fell by -10.5% to $197.07 per metric ton. Steel prices in 2004 had rallied sharply to $220.28 per metric ton due to strong demand from China and the weak dollar.
Trade – The US imported 11.8 million metric tons of iron ore in 2004, down –6.3%yr/yr from 12.6 million metric tons in 2003. The bulk of US iron ore imports came from Canada (5.830 million metric tons) and Brazil (5.020 million metric tons).
Supply – World production of iron ore in 2004 rose by +12.9% to 1.342 billion metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest producers of iron ore are China (with 23.1% of world production in 2004), Brazil (19.0%), and
World Production of Raw Steel (Ingots and Castings) Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Russia
Ukraine
25,076 25,237 26,153 25,800 24,600 27,865 26,718 29,605 31,200 31,200
14,415 14,735 15,554 15,930 16,300 15,900 16,300 16,300 17,000 17,000
95,360 101,237 108,911 115,590 124,260 128,500 151,630 182,370 222,340 272,450
18,100 17,633 19,767 20,126 20,211 21,002 19,431 20,524 19,578 20,770
42,051 39,793 45,007 44,046 42,056 46,376 44,775 44,999 44,809 46,374
27,766 23,910 25,842 25,798 24,964 26,544 26,483 25,930 26,832 28,317
101,640 98,801 104,545 93,548 94,192 106,444 102,866 107,745 110,511 112,718
36,772 38,903 42,554 39,896 41,042 43,107 43,852 45,390 46,310 47,500
51,589 49,253 48,502 43,822 51,524 59,098 59,030 59,777 62,710 64,300
22,309 22,332 25,629 23,461 27,390 31,780 33,110 34,538 36,900 38,740
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
17,604 95,191 752,260 17,992 95,535 749,992 18,489 98,486 798,892 17,066 98,600 770,000 16,634 97,400 790,000 15,022 102,000 850,000 13,610 90,100 853,000 11,718 91,600 906,000 13,128 93,700 972,000 13,766 100,000 1,020,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Wholesale Prices of Iron and Steel in the United States No. 1 Heavy Melting
------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pittsburg Prices -----------------------------------------------------------------------H ot Railroad GalvanCold Carbon Hot Used ------ Sheet Bars -----Rolled Steel ized Rolled Steel Rolled Steel Hot Cold Sheet2 Scrap3 Sheets Strip Plates Strip Cans4 Pittsburg Chicago Rolled Finished ---- $ Per Gross Ton ---- -------------------------------------------------- Cents Per Pound -------------------------------------------------- ------ $ Per Gross Ton ------------ Steel Scrap -------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
137.28 133.38 110.10 97.86 103.73 79.34 101.06 128.32 221.05 199.10
136.07 139.40 118.76 102.49 96.07 74.17 89.92 113.82 220.13 196.75
23.94 18.12 15.57 14.74 15.67 11.71 16.46 14.80 30.84 27.83
-------------------------------
26.46 25.65 25.50 23.50 23.08 22.76 23.26 25.15 38.67 44.96
Preliminary. 2 10 gauge; thru 1992,list prices;1993 to date, market prices. NA = Not available. Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
1
25.00 ---------------------------3
31.58 32.00 22.50 14.00 15.69 12.94 -------------
Specialties scrap.
------------------------------4
35.05 28.62 24.11 21.20 21.38 16.41 22.00 20.08 36.69 33.77
169.00 169.00 164.29 150.00 150.00 ----------------
121.27 108.13 109.44 68.94 82.23 68.52 66.71 116.21 192.80 172.00
Consumer buying prices.
149
IRON AND STEEL Salient Statistics of Steel in the United States
Year
Producer Price Index for Steel Mill Products Pig Iron Production (1982=100)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
54,485 54,679 53,164 51,002 52,787 46,424 44,341 43,122 44,731 40,036
Preliminary.
2
115.7 116.4 113.8 105.3 108.4 101.3 104.8 109.5 147.2 159.7
In Thousands of Short Tons
---------------------------------------- Raw Steel Production ---------------------------------------B a si c Oxygen
Open Hearth
Electric2
60,433 61,053 59,686 57,722 59,485 52,204 50,114 50,942 50,613 45,231
-------------------------------
44,876 47,508 49,067 49,673 52,756 47,118 51,564 48,751 58,456 57,599
I ncludes crucible steels.
Stainless
Carbon
Alloy
Total
2,061 93,649 2,382 95,933 2,214 97,054 2,086 98,694 2,104 102,141 1,836 92,946 1,894 92,518 1,952 98,772 2,073 105,161 1,903 96,636
9,599 10,246 9,484 5,421 5,379 4,666 4,779 4,901 4,851 4,935
105,309 108,561 108,752 107,395 111,903 99,322 101,679 99,693 109,069 102,830
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
1
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
92.2 85.3 90.0 77.2 89.7 77.6 84.5 83.1 88.0 90.9
92.6 89.3 95.2 79.5 89.4 82.3 88.4 87.3 90.9 92.9
93.8 89.6 93.1 81.7 91.2 81.8 86.7 85.0 93.8 88.4
90.5 89.2 92.5 81.8 92.0 82.9 90.3 87.8 93.3 89.2
89.7 87.9 89.1 81.7 91.3 81.5 89.4 81.1 92.9 84.2
91.3 87.0 86.1 79.7 89.6 81.6 92.5 86.2 94.4 79.8
86.6 85.1 83.0 79.4 85.3 79.8 86.8 78.9 93.5 77.1
87.1 86.4 86.4 82.8 83.5 80.4 91.0 78.3 95.0 81.3
87.7 91.2 83.0 82.3 82.7 80.5 94.0 80.7 97.3 86.4
88.0 86.9 81.0 88.2 81.0 77.5 90.8 82.8 97.5 89.3
87.0 89.6 74.4 89.1 75.1 73.5 86.8 82.8 94.8 88.1
87.9 86.3 74.8 88.5 72.0 65.9 83.9 81.9 91.5 85.0
89.5 89.4 85.7 82.7 85.2 78.8 88.8 83.0 93.6 86.1
2
Preliminary.
Sources: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI );
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
8,981 8,735 9,510 8,422 9,838 8,475 8,050 8,617 8,656 9,123
8,438 8,266 9,087 7,837 9,170 8,122 7,609 8,175 8,400 8,419
9,136 9,175 9,839 8,854 10,009 8,932 8,261 8,817 9,268 9,028
8,588 8,882 9,524 8,643 9,843 8,685 8,214 8,692 8,901 8,757
8,798 9,048 9,483 8,914 10,097 8,832 8,401 8,047 9,163 8,543
8,661 8,662 8,863 8,413 9,592 8,550 8,414 8,534 9,006 7,837
8,585 8,692 8,832 8,619 9,411 8,459 8,510 8,163 9,164 7,896
8,627 8,818 9,194 8,993 9,213 8,525 8,918 8,096 9,314 8,330
8,407 9,006 8,548 8,650 8,830 8,263 8,916 8,026 9,234 8,562
8,702 9,128 8,681 9,574 8,978 8,125 9,015 8,514 9,551 9,032
8,276 9,116 7,710 9,357 8,054 7,226 8,340 8,347 8,989 8,629
8,689 9,071 8,013 9,604 7,982 6,695 8,329 8,414 8,660 8,599
104,356 107,488 107,643 105,882 111,015 98,889 100,976 100,442 108,305 102,754
Preliminary.
Year
In Percent
Mar.
Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI )
Shipments of Steel Products1 by Market Classifications in the United States
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20054
32,115 34,389 41,520 35,731 37,957 30,080 32,686 23,125 35,808 32,108
F eb.
Production of Steel Ingots in the United States Year
6,168 7,369 5,520 5,426 6,529 6,144 6,009 8,220 7,933 9,393
Jan.
1 Based on tonnage capability to produce raw steel for a full order book. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
100,878 105,858 102,420 106,201 109,050 99,448 99,191 105,625 112,085 103,474
Sources: American I ron & Steel I nstitute (AI SI ); U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Production of Steel Ingots, Rate of Capability Utiliz ation1 in the United States Year
Total Net S t e e l Products ----Shipments Steel Mill Products Exports Imports
------ By Type of Furnace ------
Appliances Utensils & Cutlery
1,713 1,635 1,729 1,712 1,530 1,675 1,734 1,891 1,919 1,895
ConMachinery, Constainers, Industrial Con- Electrical Packaging truction Equipment EquipAuto- & Shipping Including tractors & Tools ment Export Maint. Products motive Materials
14,665 15,251 15,842 15,639 14,697 12,767 12,562 11,937 12,527 13,031
4,101 4,163 3,829 3,768 3,684 3,193 3,251 2,949 2,978 2,504
15,561 15,885 15,289 14,685 14,763 16,339 15,729 14,403 15,114 15,858
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
2,401 2,434 2,255 2,260 2,039 1,694 1,336 1,200 1,139 1,088
2,328 2,610 2,556 2,292 2,752 2,281 1,844 2,572 2,426 2,592
2,410 2,355 2,147 1,547 1,513 1,210 1,137 1,108 1,332 1,300
Rail Oil Transand Gas portaion
3,254 3,811 2,649 1,544 2,268 2,134 1,658 1,800 2,043 2,056
1,400 1,410 1,657 876 994 720 751 799 957 1,019
In Thousands of Short Tons
Steel for Converting & Processing2
Steel Service Center & D i stributors
All Other3
Total Shipments
10,245 11,263 9,975 7,599 7,753 7,462 7,201 6,798 7,295 7,559
27,124 27,800 27,751 21,439 22,537 23,887 22,828 24,266 25,385 23,213
15,676 17,241 16,741 32,840 35,093 26,086 29,160 35,905 38,969 31,359
100,878 105,858 102,420 106,201 109,624 99,448 99,191 105,628 112,085 103,474
All grades including carbon, alloy and stainless steel. 2 Net total after deducting shipments to reporting companines for conversion or resale. 3 I ncludes agricultural; bolts, nuts rivets & screws; forgings (other than automotive); shipbuilding & marine equipment; aircraft; mining, quarrying & lumbering; other domestic & commercial equipment machinery; ordnance & other direct military; and shipments of non-reporting companies. 4 Preliminary. Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI )
1
150
IRON AND STEEL Net Shipments of Steel Products2 in the United States
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Cold Finished Bars
Rails & A cce ssories
1,685 1,809 1,780 1,775 1,756 1,369 1,404 1,426 1,520 1,495
722 875 938 646 783 630 789 739 843 920
Preliminary.
2
Wire Tin Mill Drawn Products
652 619 725 611 579 481 733 684 428 560
Sheet & Strip Plates (Cut & Galv. (Hot D i pped) Coils)
4,108 8,672 4,057 8,855 3,714 8,864 3,771 8,200 3,742 8,898 3,202 8,349 3,419 8,769 3,513 9,230 3,247 10,740 2,874 10,274
11,456 12,439 13,481 14,870 14,917 14,310 14,944 15,221 16,306 15,249
Hot Rolled Bars
Structural Shapes Pipe & & Steel Piling Tubing
Reinforcing Bars
Hot Rolled Sheets
6,999 8,153 8,189 8,078 7,901 7,032 6,581 6,486 7,181 6,674
5,895 6,548 5,409 4,772 5,385 5,377 4,809 4,597 5,328 5,096
5,762 6,188 5,909 6,183 6,893 6,976 6,359 7,970 8,274 7,464
17,466 18,221 15,715 17,740 19,236 18,866 19,243 22,218 23,106 20,569
All grades, including carbon, alloy and stainless steel.
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Belgium
Brazil
China
France
9,199 8,628 8,077 8,730 8,472 8,472 7,732 8,053 8,000 8,000
25,090 23,978 25,336 25,111 25,060 27,952 27,623 29,899 32,500 32,500
105,293 107,225 115,110 118,600 125,390 131,010 155,540 170,850 213,660 251,850
12,860 12,108 13,424 13,603 13,854 13,621 12,004 13,217 12,756 13,000
29,828 30,012 30,939 30,162 27,931 30,846 29,184 29,427 29,481 30,018
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
6,140 6,029 5,595 5,995 7,402 6,789 6,729 7,437 7,812 8,070
Year
1
Alloy
Stainless
14,089 93,019 5,948 13,322 97,509 6,282 13,185 94,536 5,847 13,874 98,694 5,421 14,802 102,141 5,379 12,352 92,314 4,789 12,673 92,518 4,779 13,485 98,772 4,901 14,762 105,161 4,851 12,793 96,636 4,935
1,912 2,067 2,037 2,086 2,104 1,837 1,894 1,952 2,073 1,903
Carbon
In Thousands of Metric Tons
India
Italy
Ja p a n
Russia
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
18,626 19,864 19,898 20,194 20,139 21,321 21,900 24,315 24,000 25,000
11,684 10,347 11,348 10,704 10,509 11,223 10,650 9,736 10,000 10,000
74,905 74,597 78,519 74,981 74,520 81,071 78,836 80,979 82,092 82,974
39,762 36,061 37,327 34,827 40,854 44,618 44,980 46,060 48,368 50,000
20,000 18,143 20,561 20,840 21,937 25,700 26,400 27,560 29,570 31,000
12,238 12,830 13,057 12,574 12,399 10,891 9,861 8,579 8,561 10,200
50,900 49,400 49,600 48,200 46,300 47,900 42,100 40,200 40,600 42,300
536,000 549,000 577,000 572,000 578,000 616,000 624,000 653,000 708,000 788,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Production of Pig Iron (Excludes Ferro-Alloys) in the United States 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Cold Rolled Sheets
Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI )
World Production of Pig Iron (Excludes Ferro-Alloys) Germany
In Thousands of Short Tons
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
4,811 4,489 4,955 4,140 4,571 3,808 3,493 3,832 3,682 3,773
4,476 4,243 4,433 3,802 4,325 3,691 3,308 3,631 3,524 3,592
4,813 4,713 4,881 4,257 4,793 4,255 3,616 3,906 4,018 4,030
4,430 4,440 4,600 4,157 4,741 4,183 3,480 3,810 3,749 3,397
4,556 4,690 4,731 4,352 4,887 4,278 3,584 3,381 3,670 3,395
4,578 4,452 4,299 4,045 4,577 4,143 3,612 3,569 3,633 2,962
4,524 4,420 4,418 4,204 4,454 4,048 3,854 3,395 3,590 2,895
4,498 4,443 4,502 4,280 4,387 4,121 3,983 3,253 3,839 3,183
4,404 4,605 4,170 4,167 4,262 3,920 4,006 3,289 3,818 3,127
4,443 4,662 4,212 4,572 4,138 3,837 4,018 3,527 3,940 3,237
4,307 4,717 3,837 4,447 3,675 3,202 3,710 3,530 3,668 3,310
4,523 4,861 4,119 4,722 3,781 2,965 3,677 3,733 3,389 3,135
54,485 54,680 53,174 51,145 52,591 46,451 44,341 42,856 44,520 40,036
Preliminary.
Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute
Salient Statistics of Ferrous Scrap and Pig Iron in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------------- Consumption: Ferrous Scrap & Pig Iron Charged To ------------------------------Mfg. of Pig Iron & Steel
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
Mfg. of Steel -------------- All Uses -------------------- Ingots & Castings ------- -------- & Misc. Users -------Pi g Pi g Pi g Grand Castings Ferrous Scrap Iron Total Scrap Iron Total (Scrap) Scrap Iron Total
56,000 56,000 58,000 58,000 56,000 59,000 57,000 56,000 54,800 56,700
51,000 50,000 51,000 49,000 48,000 49,000 47,000 42,000 39,700 38,000
107,000 106,000 109,000 107,000 104,000 108,000 104,000 98,000 94,500 94,700
13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 4,460 8,490
1,100 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,100 1,500 655 1,020
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes tinplate and terneplate. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Stocks -- Dec. 31
Iron Foundries
3
14,100 14,100 14,200 14,200 14,100 14,200 13,100 12,500 5,115 9,510
2,000 2,700 1,800 2,000 1,900 2,200 2,200 1,800 2,680 1,330
72,000 72,000 73,000 73,000 71,000 74,000 71,000 69,000 61,900 66,500
52,000 52,000 52,000 50,000 49,000 50,000 48,000 44,000 41,000 39,100
124,000 124,000 125,000 123,000 120,000 124,000 119,000 113,000 102,900 105,600
Ferrous Scrap & Pig Imports of Scrap2
Exports ---- Iron at Consumers ---of Pi g Total Scrap3 Scrap Iron Stocks
2,090 10,400 2,600 8,440 2,870 8,930 3,060 5,570 3,360 5,000 3,040 5,230 2,390 6,750 3,130 8,950 3,480 10,800 4,660 11,800
4,200 5,200 5,500 5,300 5,450 5,300 4,920 4,960 4,430 5,410
620 600 510 570 724 930 787 754 381 722
4,820 5,800 6,010 5,870 6,174 6,230 5,707 5,714 4,811 6,132
Excludes used rails for rerolling and other uses and ships, boats, and other vessels for scrapping.
151
IRON AND STEEL
USD Per Ton ----- No. 1 Heavy, Chicago (Dec. 1900 - date) - - - No. 1 Heavy, Pittsburg (Jan. 1907 - date)
Consumption of Pig Iron in the U.S., by Type of Furnace or Equipment Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Open Hearth
Electric
Cupola
B a si c Oxygen Process
-------------------------------
1,700 2,200 2,400 4,000 3,100 2,900 2,700 3,200 2,310 3,030
500 530 400 590 520 530 500 520 792 354
50,000 49,000 50,000 46,000 45,000 47,000 45,000 40,000 37,900 35,700
Estimate.
W = Withheld.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Direct Casting
Total
W W W W W W W W W W
72 42 41 36 36 35 36 36 36 36
52,272 52,000 52,000 50,000 49,000 50,000 48,000 44,000 41,000 39,100
In Dollars Per Metric Ton
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
143.41 131.14 144.29 89.66 120.50 83.55 70.21 96.93 187.75 203.00
144.50 143.50 140.39 101.50 111.10 74.50 75.03 101.97 219.92 190.00
139.50 139.70 135.50 90.89 110.50 74.50 75.50 105.07 250.85 190.00
139.50 132.59 133.50 90.50 108.15 74.50 85.05 105.50 224.55 217.14
142.50 136.50 135.30 100.00 101.50 73.23 93.09 101.69 181.90 180.95
139.50 136.50 135.50 104.32 94.59 72.50 97.10 96.88 180.00 124.32
134.50 143.50 131.50 100.98 92.50 75.93 97.50 101.05 222.50 135.50
136.95 146.50 120.88 105.95 92.50 76.50 97.50 116.79 249.32 189.78
140.35 139.60 107.79 106.50 92.50 76.50 100.50 122.02 217.38 241.19
130.89 139.63 85.64 106.50 82.59 72.54 98.85 122.50 237.62 204.29
120.76 142.50 78.71 113.40 72.80 67.50 93.50 138.22 248.00 246.25
120.50 142.50 76.68 120.17 74.20 67.50 93.50 159.74 223.57 242.43
136.07 139.51 118.81 102.49 96.07 74.17 89.78 114.03 220.28 197.07
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
152
Ai r & Other Furnace
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Wholesale Price of No. 1 Heavy Melting Steel Scrap in Chicago Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons
IRON AND STEEL World Production of Iron Ore3 Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
India
Mauritania
Russia
South Africa
Sweden
Ukraine
United States
Venezuela
World Total
142,936 147,100 157,766 155,731 154,268 167,935 181,553 182,704 187,219 230,955
183,839 174,157 184,970 197,500 194,000 212,576 201,430 214,560 234,470 255,000
38,560 34,400 37,277 37,808 33,900 35,427 27,119 30,902 33,322 28,256
249,350 249,550 268,000 247,000 237,000 223,000 220,000 231,000 261,000 310,000
65,173 66,657 69,453 72,532 70,220 75,950 79,200 86,400 99,100 120,600
11,610 11,360 11,700 11,400 10,400 11,345 10,302 9,553 10,100 10,600
78,300 72,100 70,900 72,343 81,311 86,630 82,500 84,236 91,760 96,980
31,946 30,830 33,225 32,948 29,508 33,707 34,757 36,484 38,086 39,333
19,058 21,020 21,893 20,930 18,558 20,557 19,486 20,300 21,500 22,300
50,400 47,600 53,000 50,758 47,769 55,883 54,650 58,900 62,498 65,550
62,501 62,083 62,971 62,931 57,749 63,089 46,192 51,570 48,554 54,724
18,955 18,480 18,503 16,553 14,051 17,353 16,902 16,684 17,954 21,600
1,034,539 1,018,436 1,070,000 1,050,000 1,016,289 1,078,746 1,042,657 1,093,417 1,187,901 1,341,677
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
I ron ore, iron ore concentrates and iron ore agglomerates.
Salient Statistics of Iron Ore3 in the United States
Year
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Consumption
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
14 14 14 17 17 19 15 11 11 8
In Thousands of Metric Tons ----- Stocks -- Dec. 31 -----
---------- Production ----------
Total
60,898 62,132 63,000 62,900 57,700 63,100 46,200 51,600 48,600 54,700
L a ke Other Superior Regions
60,462 61,748 62,600 62,591 57,410 62,983 46,100 51,500 NA NA
435 383 327 327 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Shipments
Average Value Value $ MIllion $ at Mine (at Mine) Per Ton
1,700.0 1,750.0 1,860.0 1,970.0 1,550.0 1,560.0 1,210.0 1,340.0 1,490.0 2,080.0
61,100 62,200 62,800 63,200 58,500 61,000 50,600 51,500 46,100 54,900
28.00 28.07 29.60 31.14 26.47 25.57 23.87 26.04 32.30 37.92
Mines
C on suming Plants
L a ke Erie D o cks
Imports
Exports
4,240 4,650 4,860 6,020 5,710 9,150 3,800 4,090 4,910 3,930
17,100 18,800 20,200 20,500 17,900 16,800 12,300 12,400 10,900 NA
2,140 2,260 2,890 4,080 2,770 2,860 1,960 1,820 1,630 NA
17,600 18,400 18,500 16,900 14,300 15,700 10,700 12,500 12,600 11,800
5,270 6,260 6,340 6,000 6,120 6,150 5,610 6,750 6,770 8,400
Value Con- Million $ sumption Imports
83,100 79,600 79,500 78,200 75,100 76,500 67,300 59,700 61,600 64,500
491.0 556.0 551.0 517.0 399.0 420.0 293.0 313.0 328.0 371.0
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Usable iron ore exclusive of ore containing 5% or more manganese and includes byproduct ore. NA = Not available. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
U.S. Imports (for Consumption) of Iron Ore2
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Mauritania
Peru
Sweden
Venezuela
Total
570 511 742 807 694 755 576 567 128
4,810 5,170 4,970 5,980 5,540 6,090 4,260 5,750 4,980 5,020
9,050 9,800 10,000 8,520 6,860 7,990 4,530 5,540 6,970 5,830
57 164 228 48 69 135 711 319 296 244
317 275 -------------------------
54 43 252 126 63 40 71 86 77 56
47 48 149 373 421 250 70 44 88 111
2,500 2,140 2,090 970 327 349 87 49 21 262
17,600 18,400 18,600 16,900 14,300 15,700 10,700 12,500 12,600 11,800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 1
3
Preliminary.
2
I ncluding agglomerates.
3
Less than 1/2 unit.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Total2 Iron Ore Stocks in the United States, at End of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
22,277 25,913 27,977 29,631 24,885 27,583 16,980 17,640 4,220 4,060
20,744 25,262 26,317 28,463 24,810 26,076 15,970 19,790 7,260 6,770
19,779 24,745 24,039 28,614 23,556 24,570 14,660 21,100 8,780 8,410
20,104 24,812 25,251 28,292 23,714 23,800 14,920 18,560 8,360 7,690
23,426 25,001 25,576 29,151 24,032 23,600 15,680 17,690 7,660 7,730
21,822 25,620 26,197 29,021 24,613 21,664 16,090 17,880 7,080 7,370
22,445 26,076 27,605 28,857 24,993 21,010 16,120 17,950 5,670 7,420
23,663 26,971 29,037 27,840 26,278 20,440 16,080 18,360 4,500 7,240
24,116 27,562 30,301 26,506 26,815 20,050 15,520 17,220 3,470 6,550
24,866 28,029 30,095 25,528 27,530 19,660 15,790 17,140 3,850 5,840
25,465 28,053 30,199 25,290 27,987 18,690 16,740 17,440 3,700 6,250
25,701 27,912 30,624 26,371 28,779 18,000 17,410 16,460 2,990
Preliminary.
2
All stocks at mines, furnace yards and at U.S. docks.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
153
Lard Lard is the layer of fat found along the back and underneath the skin of a hog. The hog’s fat is purified by washing it with water, melting it under constant heat, and straining it several times. Lard is an important byproduct of the meatpacking industry. It is valued highly as cooking oil because there is very little smoke when it is heated. However, demand for lard in cooking is declining because of the trend toward healthier eating. Lard is also used for medicinal purposes such as ointments, plasters, liniments, and occasionally as a laxative for children. Lard production is directly proportional to commercial hog production, meaning the largest producers of hogs are the largest producers of lard.
Supply – World production of lard in the 2003-04 marketing year (latest data available) rose by +2.7% yr/yr to 7.276 million metric tons, which was a record high. The world’s largest lard producers are China (with 43% of world production), United States (7%), Germany (6%), former USSR (5%), Poland (4%), Spain (4%), and Brazil (4%). US production of lard in 2004-05 rose +2.5% yr/yr to 1.117 billion pounds. Demand – US consumption of lard in 2005 (through October, annualized) fell –13.6% to 231.655 million pounds which is a record low. The current level of consumption is less than one-fifth of the consumption seen in 1971 of 1.574 billion pounds.
Prices – The average monthly wholesale price of lard in 2005 (through November) fell by -18.9% to 21.37 cents per pound, down from last year’s 20-year high of 26.35 cents per pound. The record price of 29.654 cents was seen in 1975.
World Production of Lard Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
Preliminary.
Exports – US exports of lard in 2002-03 rose by +146.2% to 288 million pounds, and accounted for 26% of US production.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Poland
Romania
Spain
United States
Former USSR
World Total
197.4 214.3 234.3 325.7 336.8 353.3 353.4 359.0 368.6
83.1 91.5 99.7 107.5 112.6 112.1 126.5 129.7 133.4
2,400.2 2,624.8 2,665.5 2,771.4 2,832.1 2,918.6 3,019.2 3,105.9 3,209.6
157.3 162.3 167.4 164.7 155.7 157.4 156.6 155.3 152.1
396.5 413.4 444.5 423.5 415.2 422.3 433.7 444.5 452.5
197.6 194.0 201.3 200.9 195.9 199.3 204.8 208.3 214.1
74.1 67.9 66.4 65.1 62.3 61.8 59.3 59.3 59.6
259.4 266.4 270.1 254.7 239.5 252.0 272.5 257.7 253.5
99.1 96.9 92.9 81.1 72.7 76.9 79.2 77.6 78.8
211.8 238.5 258.1 262.0 264.9 263.9 280.9 280.3 287.4
437.0 478.9 501.7 491.6 488.6 508.1 510.0 531.7 534.1
351.5 339.7 336.6 328.4 314.8 324.6 345.8 334.5 323.7
6,065.0 6,406.1 3,593.0 6,750.9 6,754.3 6,949.9 7,166.7 7,280.3 7,430.0
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
Supply and Distribution of Lard in the United States
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------ Supply ------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ Disappearance -----------------------------------------------------------P er Baking Total Capita & Frying MarD i sa p Direct ProStocks Total (Lbs.) Fats pearance Use duction Oct. 1 Supply Domestic garine3 Exports
979.0 1,064.7 1,106.1 1,091.0 1,058.0 1,058.0 1,083.0 1,090.0 1,117.0
22.7 19.9 40.4 20.8 27.0 16.0 14.0 11.0 13.0
1,002.9 1,086.7 1,148.4 1,097.8 1,087.0 1,077.0 1,105.0 1,108.0 1,136.0
1 Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 I ncludes edible tallow. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
879.6 924.6 987.6 917.8 897.0 960.0 1,010.0 977.0 834.0
262.0 285.0 250.0 234.0 W W W W W
NA = not avaliable.
15.0 17.0 26.0 14.0 12.0 7.0 16.0 10.0 5.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
154
982.9 1,046.4 1,127.5 1,072.8 1,071.0 1,064.0 1,094.0 1,094.0 1,122.0
602.4 623.3 654.0 675.0 561.0 659.0 709.0 708.0 566.0
3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.9
Source: Economic Research Service,
Consumption of Lard (Edible and Inedible) in the United States Year
103.3 121.8 139.9 155.0 174.0 103.0 84.0 117.0 288.0
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
26.5 34.1 34.6 27.3 27.8 26.4 22.6 22.9 19.0
30.5 29.9 30.2 25.7 22.2 26.1 22.3 25.8 15.4
31.0 31.1 28.8 29.1 28.3 21.8 23.4 25.9 21.4
36.5 29.6 31.1 23.3 24.5 26.7 21.4 23.9 18.7
39.9 28.5 30.5 30.3 22.5 24.8 23.3 23.5 19.9
36.2 35.9 32.9 27.6 23.3 21.2 24.0 22.0 20.4
36.1 33.0 28.9 24.4 21.8 22.9 23.0 19.1 18.9
35.0 33.0 33.0 31.3 27.1 26.4 21.4 19.7 19.5
37.4 37.1 29.2 31.1 23.2 23.6 22.5 21.3 20.1
39.0 37.7 31.2 32.6 27.9 26.4 24.3 22.4 19.7
41.5 38.9 31.3 29.6 26.7 28.1 20.2 21.9 22.2
40.4 33.9 30.3 31.7 24.4 28.7 21.0 19.9 17.8
429.8 402.7 372.1 343.9 299.8 303.2 269.5 268.1 233.0
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
LARD
Cents Per Pound ----- Chicago (Jan. 1910 - date)
Average Wholesale Price of Lard, Loose, Tank Cars, in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
20.52 24.93 19.09 16.89 15.66 13.57 12.69 18.61 26.50 22.10
18.17 25.47 16.03 13.91 12.38 11.92 12.50 17.11 25.83 18.30
18.01 24.69 17.36 11.98 11.99 11.07 13.07 16.85 23.77 17.71
18.67 20.82 17.64 13.12 11.96 12.09 12.42 16.72 22.58 20.72
20.47 20.94 18.66 13.43 12.68 11.84 11.38 17.29 21.31 22.95
22.61 22.68 19.38 12.98 12.64 13.38 14.64 18.90 22.50 21.30
24.55 23.83 17.93 11.87 10.32 18.05 14.60 18.93 27.53 18.08
26.30 23.95 18.65 13.89 10.35 24.11 15.00 20.08 32.06 17.75
27.09 23.14 16.58 17.44 11.14 22.00 15.21 23.98 32.38 20.97
23.11 23.41 17.39 20.55 13.04 13.04 14.39 27.50 27.95 27.38
19.70 23.97 17.60 17.74 12.06 13.18 16.28 26.40 27.26 27.76
22.17 22.85 16.27 16.12 12.14 14.92 18.42 25.18 26.50 18.60
21.78 23.39 17.72 14.99 12.20 14.93 14.22 20.63 26.35 21.14
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
United States Cold Storage Holdings of all Lard1, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
38.4 18.9 22.2 28.4 26.7 16.0 13.2 10.5 13.3 13.7
38.6 16.3 30.1 30.4 27.8 14.9 18.0 14.0 19.8 14.6
25.8 18.5 38.3 30.6 29.2 14.9 16.4 19.6 18.6 20.6
28.8 19.2 42.5 34.0 30.1 17.9 16.5 18.7 20.3 19.0
21.5 18.9 41.6 27.1 20.2 13.7 20.3 16.5 20.5 17.8
23.2 18.7 47.6 39.9 22.5 13.1 22.4 13.5 15.0 12.3
23.7 23.0 43.7 30.7 18.9 10.3 18.9 11.9 12.9 12.0
30.5 23.2 44.8 25.5 19.3 12.4 18.3 9.7 10.8 12.3
20.7 21.5 38.8 29.4 17.3 11.8 12.0 8.4 10.3 12.5
22.7 19.9 40.4 20.8 17.4 13.6 10.5 9.3 11.8 13.0
20.1 21.3 34.8 19.1 16.3 13.0 14.6 10.1 11.4 12.2
18.8 19.7 26.3 22.8 16.8 11.7 11.3 12.4 13.2 14.7
Stocks in factories and warehouses (except that in hands of retailers).
2
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
155
Lead Lead (symbol Pb) is a dense, toxic, bluish-gray metallic element, and is the heaviest stable element. Lead was one of the first known metals. The ancients used lead in face powders, rouges, mascaras, paints, condiments, wine preservatives, and water supply plumbing. The Romans were slowly poisoned from lead because of its diverse daily usage. Lead is usually found in ore with zinc, silver, and most often copper. The most common lead ore is galena, containing 86.6% lead. Cerussite and angleside are other common varieties of lead. More than half of the lead currently used comes from recycling. Lead is used in building construction, bullets and shot, tank and pipe lining, storage batteries, and electric cable sheathing. Lead is used extensively as a protective shielding for radioactive material (e.g., X-ray apparatus) because of its high density and nuclear properties. Lead is also part of solder, pewter, and fusible alloys. Lead futures and options trade at the London Metal Exchange (LME). The LME lead futures contract calls for the delivery of 25 metric tons of at least 99.970% purity lead ingots (pigs). The contract is priced in US dollars per metric ton. Lead first started trading on the LME in 1903. Prices – Through the last half of 2004 and the first half of 2005 the cash price for lead was generally level at about $900 to $1,000 per metric ton. Lead prices in mid2005 then sank briefly to about $800 per metric ton but then rallied the rest of the year to end 2005 at a high of about $1,400 per metric ton. In early 2006, however, prices fell sharply to the $1,100 to $1,200 range. Supply – World smelter production of lead (both primary and secondary) in 2003 (latest data available) rose
+2.9% yr/yr to 6.820 million metric tons and easily posted a new record production level. The world’s largest smelter producers of lead (both primary and secondary) are China with 23% of world production in 2003, followed by the US with 20%, Germany with 5%, and the UK with 5%. US mine production of recoverable lead rose +2.0% yr/ yr to 449,000 metric tons in 2003, recovering from the 6year low of 440,000 metric tons posted in 2002. Missouri was responsible for 96% of US production, with the remainder produced mainly by Idaho and Montana. Lead recovered from scrap in the US (secondary production) fell –3.9% yr/yr in 2005 (through September, annualized) to 1.105 million metric tons, down from the record high of 1.149 million metric tons seen in 2004. The amount of lead recovered from scrap is more than twice the amount of lead produced in the US from mines (primary production). The value of US refined lead production in 2003 fell to $236 million, which was a 9-year low and was well below the record high of $668 million posted back in 1979. Demand – US lead consumption in 2005 (through September, annualized) rose + 3.0% to 1.460 million metric tons, recovering from the 9-year low of 1.417 million metric tons seen in 2004. The record level of US lead consumption was 1.680 million metric tons posted in 1999. Trade – The US relied on imports for 11% of its lead consumption in 2003. US imports of lead pigs and bars in 2004 fell –16.7% yr/yr to a 12-year low of 175,000 metric tons. US lead exports in 2003 were comprised by ore concentrate (253,000 metric tons), scrap (92,800 metric tons), unwrought lead (92,100 metric tons), and wrought lead (30,500 metric tons).
World Smelter (Primary and Secondary) Production of Lead Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia3
Belgium4
Canada3
China2
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Mexico3
237.0 241.0 228.0 238.0 206.0 272.8 251.8 303.0 211.0 350.0
123.5 122.0 125.0 110.8 91.5 103.2 118.0 96.0 88.0 65.0
251.6 281.4 309.4 271.4 265.5 266.4 284.8 230.9 251.3 272.0
467.9 608.0 706.0 707.0 757.0 918.0 1,100.0 1,200.0 1,330.0 1,580.0
260.5 296.7 302.8 302.3 318.0 279.0 258.0 238.0 204.0 100.0
331.7 311.2 238.1 329.2 380.2 373.6 415.0 374.0 390.0 357.0
205.9 180.4 209.8 211.6 199.3 215.3 235.0 203.0 205.0 214.0
292.2 287.6 287.4 296.8 302.1 293.4 311.7 302.4 285.8 295.3
171.0 176.0 160.0 178.0 173.0 221.1 253.2 253.5 237.2 250.0
2
Estimate.
3
Refinded & bullion.
4
I ncludes scrap.
Year
Ammun- Bearing ition Metals
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
62,400 70,900 52,100 52,400 52,800 58,300 63,700 53,600 57,600 48,800
5,560 6,490 4,350 2,490 2,210 1,570 1,490 837 406 406
3,370 2,210 1,810 1,860 3,130 2,020 2,010 2,370 2,250 1,670
Cable Calking Covering Lead
16,000 5,640 W 4,930 4,630 2,410 W W W W
764 935 767 1,390 1,350 971 1,140 927 1,060 822
140.0 80.0 86.0 74.9 90.0 96.0 120.0 98.0 116.0 102.0
352.5 320.7 345.6 391.0 348.9 348.1 337.2 366.0 370.0 340.0
United States
World Total
1,280 1,390 1,400 1,450 1,450 1,460 1,470 1,390 1,380 1,390
5,360 5,590 5,630 5,880 5,970 6,280 6,660 6,580 6,630 6,820
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumption of Lead in the United States, by Products P i p e s, Traps & Bends2
United Spain Kingdom3
In Metric Tons
Other Casting Metal Metals Products3
Total Other Oxides4
Sheet Lead
18,900 18,100 18,900 34,000 32,600 34,300 35,100 31,800 34,800 31,700
62,700 61,700 62,100 67,000 53,400 58,200 52,400 43,900 51,900 35,700
21,500 27,900 19,400 19,100 15,500 15,400 23,800 22,400 25,600 24,200
5,330 5,220 5,220 7,570 8,160 7,130 25,800 17,100 24,200 22,800
--- Storage Battery --- Brass Grids, and Total Solder Post, etc. Oxides Bronze Consumption
12,200 16,200 9,020 9,580 10,900 13,100 11,500 6,120 6,450 6,310
797,000 711,000 635,000 634,000 685,000 765,000 796,000 655,000 554,000 523,000
425,000 618,000 706,000 761,000 742,000 707,000 690,000 694,000 641,000 642,000
6,320 5,260 5,460 4,410 3,460 3,940 3,670 2,590 2,730 2,810
1,450,000 1,560,000 1,540,000 1,620,000 1,630,000 1,680,000 1,720,000 1,550,000 1,440,000 1,390,000
Preliminary. 2 I ncluding building. 3 I ncluding terne metal, type metal, and lead consumerd in foil, collapsible tubes, annealing, plating, galvanizing and fishing weights. 4 I ncludes paints, glass and ceramic products, and other pigments and chemicals. W = Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
156
LEAD Salient Statistics of Lead in the United States
Year
Net Import Reliance Production as a % of Apparent ---- of Refined Lead From ---Con- Domestic Foreign Total Ores3 sumption Ores3 Primary
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
17 17 14 21 20 24 20 18 11 0
374.0 326.0 343.0 337.0 350.0 341.0 290.0 262.0 245.0 148.0
W W W W W W W W W W
Total Value of Refined Million $
374.0 326.0 343.0 337.0 350.0 341.0 290.0 262.0 245.0 148.0
348.0 351.0 352.0 336.0 337.0 328.0 279.0 252.0 236.0
In Thousands of Metric Tons
----- Secondary Lead Recovered ----As Soft Lead
In Antimonial Lead
In Other Alloys
584.0 625.0 663.0 667.0 635.0 651.0 734.0 754.0 829.0
400.0 420.0 411.0 417.0 444.0 428.0 291.0 289.0 303.0
19.2 9.2 14.2 16.1 18.1 36.8 75.9 72.8 15.6
Average Price Total Value of - Stocks, Dec. 31 - - Cents Per Pound Secondary ConNew Total Million $ Primary sumer4 York London5
1,020.0 1,070.0 1,110.0 1,120.0 1,110.0 1,130.0 1,100.0 1,120.0 1,150.0
951.0 1,150.0 1,130.0 1,110.0 1,070.0 1,090.0 1,060.0 1,070.0 1,110.0
14.2 8.1 11.9 10.9 12.3 18.6 W W W W
79.4 72.1 89.1 77.9 78.7 106.0 100.0 111.0 85.0 59.0
42.28 48.83 46.54 45.27 43.72 43.57 43.64 43.56 43.76 55.10
28.08 31.22 28.29 23.96 22.78 20.57 21.58 20.52 23.34 40.20
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 And base bullion. 4 Also at secondary smelters. 5 LME data in dollars per metric ton beginning July 1993. W = Withheld Proprietary data. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
United States Foreign Trade of Lead
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------- Imports for Consumption ------------ --------------------- General Imports From: --------------------Ores, Ore, Flue ReFlue claimed Ash Dust or -------- Dust & Matte -------- --------- Pigs & Bars --------& Re- Fume & Base Pigs & Scrap, Value etc. Million $ Australia Canada Bars Peru Canada Mexico Peru Scrap sidues Mattes Bullion
------------------------- Exports -------------------------
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 20032 1
Unwrought Wrought Lead3 Lead4
Ore Concentrate
38.7 65.5 59.7 42.2 72.4 93.5 117.0 181.0 241.0 253.0
Preliminary.
2
48.2 48.2 44.0 37.4 24.1 23.4 21.4 17.0 31.4 92.1 Estimate.
5.3 9.0 16.7 15.9 15.4 13.9 27.2 17.7 11.7 30.5 3
88.1 105.0 85.3 88.4 99.2 117.0 71.6 108.0 106.0 92.8
20.6 8.0 19.4 16.8 9.0 1.4 11.3 14.2 -------
And lead alloys.
4
0.5 2.6 6.6 17.8 32.7 12.3 31.2 2.2 0.0 ----
0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 ----------
230.8 264.0 268.0 265.0 267.0 311.0 356.0 271.0 210.0 175.0
Blocks, pigs, etc.
6
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 6
---0.0 10.2 2.6 4.2
146.6 191.7 217.0 200.3 191.9 196.5 217.1 166.8 124.9 112.6
Less than 1/2 unit.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 20032 1
Preliminary.
2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
6
----------
---0.1 ---3.4 18.5 8.8 10.8 ----------
159.0 182.0 192.0 186.0 181.0 198.0 216.0 167.0 172.0 167.0
31.9 54.3 56.9 70.4 63.6 27.2 18.4 12.4 7.5 8.3
25.6 22.1 17.1 6.4 11.4 6.9 1.8 2.3 -------
In Metric Tons
Total
Idaho
Missouri
Montana
Other States
Missouri's % of Total
363,443 386,000 426,000 448,000 481,000 503,000 449,000 454,000 440,000 449,000
W W W W W W W W W W
290,738 359,000 397,000 412,000 439,000 464,000 410,000 423,000 428,000 432,000
9,940 8,350 7,970 9,230 7,310 7,950 W W W W
63,100 18,200 21,200 26,600 35,100 31,200 38,700 30,900 12,300 17,200
80% 93% 93% 92% 91% 92% 91% 93% 97% 96%
Estimate.
W = Withheld, included in Other States.
NA = Not Avaliable.
Mine Production of Recoverable Lead in the United States Year
0.2 ---4.4 0.8 6.5 1.2
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Annual Mine Production of Recoverable Lead in the United States Year
0.5 1.5 ------2.4 0.1 -------------
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
36.9 36.7 37.4 41.2 35.1 42.9 39.5 33.7 33.4 28.2
36.4 36.7 35.4 42.1 36.7 37.8 35.5 34.9 32.8 31.1
35.6 37.2 37.8 44.4 43.0 39.4 41.2 38.5 33.5 34.6
35.9 38.6 37.3 43.1 37.5 33.7 36.1 36.2 35.1 35.2
37.5 38.6 35.7 41.7 37.4 35.0 39.3 38.8 31.2 33.4
33.8 35.1 34.7 42.6 37.8 32.2 36.1 39.2 33.1 41.4
35.6 33.4 34.3 47.2 33.0 38.2 35.0 41.3 33.8 39.5
34.1 33.7 35.6 43.6 36.8 39.6 39.6 38.0 36.9 37.4
26.9 34.4 36.1 41.5 36.8 32.4 33.2 38.3 36.9 38.2
35.2 35.4 40.3 41.2 32.4 39.5 34.8 37.2 36.2 37.9
33.6 31.7 37.8 37.8 38.8 32.1 34.1 34.0 35.0
35.7 32.8 39.2 38.1 36.9 35.4 34.2 33.9 31.8
426.0 448.0 449.0 505.0 447.0 450.0 438.6 444.0 409.7 428.3
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
157
LEAD
Cents Per Pound ----- Pig, New York (Jan. 1910 - date) - - - Scrap, Smelters’ Heavy, Soft, New York (Dec. 1985 - date)
Average Price of Pig Lead, U.S. Primary Producers (Common Corroding)1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
48.00 50.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 23.14 38.48 50.46
49.50 50.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 24.65 44.79 52.20
50.96 48.70 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 23.81 45.30 54.00
52.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 23.13 39.93 53.25
52.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 24.56 42.44 53.41
52.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 24.77 45.16 53.26
50.29 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 26.93 48.20 47.22
49.18 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 26.05 47.46 47.53
50.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 27.23 48.08 49.76
50.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 30.16 48.01 54.01
50.00 48.00 45.47 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 32.09 49.54 54.68
50.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 35.46 49.75 59.63
50.33 48.39 47.54 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 26.83 45.60 52.45
New York Delivery.
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Refiners Production1 of Lead in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
In Cents Per Pound
In Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
34,700 28,800 29,200 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
30,400 28,500 25,900 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
30,900 31,900 30,000 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
28,600 30,400 29,700 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
27,500 30,800 29,500 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
21,700 28,700 20,300 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
25,500 25,900 28,900 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
24,700 28,000 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
25,400 21,600 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
25,300 30,500 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
26,100 29,000 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
25,500 28,700 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
326,000 343,000 337,000 350,000 341,000 290,000 262,000 245,000 NA
Represents refined lead produced from domestic ores by primary smelters plus small amounts of secondary material passing through these smelters. I ncludes GSA metal purchased for remelt. 2 Preliminary. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
158
LEAD Total Stocks of Lead1 in the United States at Refiners, at End of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
15,000 8,460 13,000 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
15,000 11,800 15,900 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
15,000 21,400 18,700 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
15,000 19,900 20,900 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
15,000 15,000 11,400 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
19,600 10,900 11,400 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
19,900 6,530 13,700 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
14,200 7,790 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
12,200 5,370 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
7,060 7,310 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
7,830 8,710 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
8,160 11,900 10,900 12,300 18,600 NA NA NA NA
Primary refineries.
2
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Total1 Lead Consumption in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
107.0 139.0 116.0 128.0 139.0 145.0 132.0 134.0 119.0 117.0
100.0 138.0 115.0 129.0 139.0 135.0 131.0 129.0 118.0 117.0
106.0 138.0 119.0 130.0 139.0 133.0 133.0 126.0 119.0 109.0
111.0 140.0 128.0 127.0 139.0 130.0 142.0 120.0 119.0 108.0
113.0 137.0 127.0 128.0 140.0 138.0 142.0 121.0 117.0 134.0
106.0 141.0 129.0 130.0 140.0 136.0 144.0 121.0 119.0 130.0
104.0 116.0 128.0 137.0 135.0 135.0 143.0 121.0 118.0 124.0
146.0 119.0 128.0 136.0 141.0 136.0 145.0 122.0 118.0 129.0
140.0 122.0 129.0 141.0 139.0 142.0 141.0 123.0 117.0 126.0
147.0 123.0 129.0 136.0 139.0 146.0 145.0 127.0 117.0 126.0
163.0 117.0 134.0 140.0 136.0 138.0 142.0 122.0 117.0
143.0 117.0 125.0 133.0 132.0 138.0 133.0 125.0 119.0
1,530 1,600 1,550 1,680 1,660 1,652 1,673 1,491 1,417 1,464
Represents total consumption of primary & secondary lead as metal, in chemicals, or in alloys.
Lead Recovered from Scrap in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2 1
2
Preliminary. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Lead Content)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
75.7 88.0 95.0 89.5 91.0 90.3 89.3 95.7 94.0 95.5
76.2 89.8 92.0 89.1 88.0 90.4 82.3 83.6 94.2 95.1
84.2 91.7 92.6 88.9 91.1 86.7 88.2 86.2 96.3 86.8
83.7 86.0 94.1 91.0 91.4 92.6 93.1 85.1 97.9 86.8
84.7 88.2 92.5 90.2 90.5 93.7 93.9 94.0 94.4 87.1
80.7 85.7 89.7 91.1 91.3 93.6 93.6 94.8 96.6 94.6
81.2 86.7 89.3 81.3 88.6 90.4 88.0 95.7 97.4 94.7
89.0 94.7 95.7 91.9 95.1 95.1 96.1 93.9 96.3 94.8
92.1 97.3 94.4 91.6 94.0 93.9 93.3 93.3 94.8 93.0
98.8 96.2 95.0 93.5 96.0 96.7 97.5 102.0 96.8 95.9
97.3 95.2 95.1 91.4 95.4 94.6 95.0 93.7 94.9
93.2 91.7 90.7 93.1 93.7 94.6 95.7 95.2 95.4
1,100.0 1,110.0 1,110.0 1,110.0 1,110.0 1,112.6 1,106.0 1,113.2 1,149.0 1,109.2
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
D o mestic S h ip men ts1 o f L ead in th e U n ited S tates, b y R efin ers Year
In Metric Tons
Jan.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Total
33.5 29.3 39.3 35.4 31.3 24.6 35.9 36.5 37.2 31.5
29.5 28.5 33.9 33.8 23.9 23.6 32.8 30.3 32.4 27.8
39.2 32.2 39.1 34.3 30.4 32.5 35.2 35.1 29.5 24.7
33.0 35.7 33.5 39.8 26.3 30.0 32.7 31.1 30.2 35.2
41.4 45.1 38.4 33.9 25.6 31.3 34.7 33.7 29.4 39.2
44.7 36.4 32.9 26.0 27.2 35.1 36.7 31.9 26.7 36.1
32.0 32.8 32.6 31.8 27.3 28.9 31.6 28.6 27.7 33.4
34.7 41.5 38.9 37.9 28.7 34.0 33.4 40.3 33.5 29.4
33.7 40.0 36.6 35.1 26.3 35.5 34.8 34.9 30.1 26.4
43.0 44.2 38.9 35.7 28.5 35.5 34.3 40.9 33.5 31.5
38.5 40.2 37.9 28.7 26.3 31.7 34.0 33.2 28.1 30.4
35.5 31.1 31.7 26.7 21.7 33.5 33.3 29.8 27.6 28.1
438.7 437.1 433.7 399.2 323.5 376.2 409.3 406.4 366.0 377.8
I ncludes GSA metal.
2
P reliminary.
S ource: American Met al Market (AMM)
159
Lumber & Plywood Humans have utilized lumber for construction for thousands of years, but due to the heaviness of timber and the manual methods of harvesting, large-scale lumbering didn’t occur until the mechanical advances of the Industrial Revolution. Lumber is produced from both hardwood and softwood. Hardwood lumber comes from deciduous trees that have broad leaves. Most hardwood lumber is used for miscellaneous industrial applications, primarily wood pallets, and includes oak, gum, maple, and ash. Hardwood species with beautiful colors and patterns are used for such highgrade products as furniture, flooring, paneling, and cabinets and include black walnut, black cherry, and red oak. Wood from cone-bearing trees is called softwood, regardless of its actual hardness. Most lumber from the US is softwood. Softwoods, such as southern yellow pine, Douglas fir, ponderosa pine, and true firs, are primarily used as structural lumber such as 2x4s and 2x6s, poles, paper and cardboard. Plywood consists of several thin layers of veneer bonded together with adhesives. The veneer sheets are layered so that the grain of one sheet is perpendicular to that of the next, which makes plywood exceptionally strong for its weight. Most plywood has from three to nine layers of wood. Plywood manufacturers use both hard and soft woods, although hardwoods serve primarily for appearance and are not as strong as those made from softwoods. Plywood is primarily used in construction, particularly for floors, roofs, walls, and doors. Homebuilding and remodeling account for two-thirds of US lumber consumption. The price of lumber and plywood is highly correlated with the strength of the US home-building market. The forest and wood products industry is dominated by Weyerhaeuser Company (ticker symbol WY), which has about $20 billion in annual sales. Weyerhaeuser is a forest products conglomerate that engages not only in growing and harvesting timber, but also in the production and distribution of forest products, real estate development, and construction of single-family homes. Forest products include wood products, pulp and paper, and containerboard. The timberland segment of the business manages 7.2 million acres of company-owned land and 800,000 acres of leased commercial forestlands in North America. The company’s Canadian division has renewable, long-term licenses on about 35 million acres of forestland in five Canadian provinces. In order to maximize its long-term yield from its acreage, Weyerhaeuser engages in a number of forest management activities such as extensive planting, suppression of nonmerchantable species, thinning, fertilization, and operational pruning.
Lumber futures and options are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The CME’s lumber futures contract calls for the delivery of 111,000 board feet (one 73 foot rail car) of random length 8 to 12 foot 2 x 4s, the type used in construction. The contract is priced in terms of dollars per thousand board feet. Prices – CME lumber futures prices continued the 2004 rally into early 2005 to post a 5-month high of $418.50 in February 2005 but then sold off to a low of $267.00 in August. Lumber futures had posted an 8-year high of $464.00 in May 2004. Lumber futures closed the year at $359.00. Lumber futures posted their record high of $493.50 in March 1993. Supply – The US leads the world in the production of industrial round wood with an increase of +2.2% yr/yr to 414.702 million cubic meters of production in 2004, followed by Canada with 196.667 million cubic meters (+5.0% yr/yr), and Russia with 134.000 million cubic meters (+5.8% yr/yr). The US also leads the world in the production of plywood with 14.926 million cubic meters of production in 2004 (+0.4% yr/yr), followed by Canada with 2.344 million cubic meters (+6.3% yr/yr), and Russia with 2.233 million cubic meters (+12.9% yr/yr). US softwood lumber production in 2005 (through September, annualized) rose +6.3% yr/yr to a 10year high of 40.576 billion board feet. Demand – US consumption of softwood lumber in 2004, the last full reporting year, rose by +15.3% yr/yr to 65.524 billion board feet, which was a new record high. Trade – US total lumber imports in 2004, the last full reporting year, rose +15.9% to 25.515 billion board feet, which was a record high. US imports of hardwood in 2004 rose by +25.5% to 995 million board feet. US imports of softwood in 2004 rose by +15.6% to 24.438 billion board feet. The leading softwood import was spruce with 1.182 billion board feet of imports in 2004, followed by pine at 697 million board feet. Total US exports of lumber in 2004 rose +70.7% yr/yr to 4.056 billion board feet, which is a 15-year high. The record high was 4.528 billion board feet in 1988. US exports of hardwood in 2004 rose by +144.4% yr/yr to 3.021 billion board feet. US exports of softwood in 2004 fell by –14.3% yr/yr to 820 million board feet. The largest types of US softwood exports are southern pine with 157 million board feet of exports, Ponderosa white pine (92 million board feet), and Douglas Fir (88 million board feet). The world’s largest exporter of plywood is Russia with 1.438 million cubic meters of exports in 2004, followed by Finland with 1.234 million cubic meters, and Canada with 1.028 million cubic meters.
World Production of Industrial Roundw ood by Selected Countries Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Austria
Canada
Czech Repulic
11,346 11,812 11,902 10,858 10,988 10,416 10,562 11,810 13,719 12,943
183,027 177,943 183,531 173,901 190,988 197,357 184,689 189,194 187,302 196,667
11,716 11,882 12,881 13,171 13,363 13,501 13,364 13,534 13,960 14,411
Preliminary.
160
2
Estimate.
In Thousands of Cubic Meters
Finland
France
Germany
Poland
Romania
Russia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
United States
46,124 42,178 47,757 49,541 49,593 50,147 47,727 48,529 49,246 49,281
33,561 30,643 32,162 32,718 33,237 43,440 37,471 32,736 30,540 32,450
36,914 34,538 35,488 36,441 35,063 51,088 36,502 37,755 45,415 48,657
19,240 18,824 20,097 21,793 22,842 24,489 23,375 24,995 27,204 29,234
10,015 9,441 9,837 8,629 9,484 10,116 9,806 12,092 12,537 12,762
83,050 73,005 67,508 77,400 94,600 105,800 117,800 118,600 126,600 134,000
12,997 12,433 12,433 13,164 13,160 12,721 13,276 13,850 14,075 14,235
59,800 52,500 56,400 54,700 52,800 57,400 57,300 60,700 61,200 61,400
10,745 10,229 9,773 9,979 10,065 10,429 9,976 11,191 10,729 11,225
408,948 406,625 416,092 422,034 423,298 420,619 403,212 404,958 405,613 414,702
NA = Not available.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
LUMBER & PLYWOOD Lumber Production and Consumption in the United States Year
---------------------------------------- Production --------------------------------------California Inland Southern West Other Total Redwood Region Pine Coast Softwood Softwood
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 I II III IV 20051 I II III 1
1,511 1,391 1,325 1,320 1,121 1,035 977 1,020 261 234 272 253 286 268 276
Preliminary.
7,383 7,298 7,580 7,078 6,563 6,759 6,716 6,672 1,593 1,616 1,811 1,652 1,761 1,667 1,666
16,113 16,151 16,922 16,672 16,094 16,686 16,841 17,999 4,406 4,679 4,610 4,304 4,722 4,937 4,717
NA = Not available.
7,772 7,797 8,625 8,782 8,764 9,244 9,904 10,957 2,675 2,837 2,791 2,654 2,954 2,968 2,915
1,888 2,040 2,153 2,115 2,035 2,106 2,151 2,292 559 586 593 554 607 615 599
34,667 34,677 36,605 35,967 34,577 35,830 36,591 38,941 9,494 9,952 10,077 9,418 10,330 10,455 10,173
7,180 7,256 7,445 6,926 6,490 6,641 6,709 6,543 1,534 1,648 1,758 1,603 1,687 1,616 1,670
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
1,499 1,409 1,358 1,257 1,132 1,056 976 993 221 261 288 223 259 233 261
15,993 15,788 16,525 16,374 15,937 16,571 16,743 17,934 4,368 4,686 4,568 4,312 4,578 4,255 4,695
7,012 7,502 8,115 8,300 8,471 8,966 9,585 10,739 2,508 2,806 2,786 2,639 2,713 2,626 2,829
In Thousands of Units
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1,467 1,355 1,525 1,748 1,636 1,600 1,698 1,853 1,927 2,188
1,491 1,486 1,584 1,670 1,737 1,625 1,829 1,629 1,852 2,228
1,424 1,457 1,567 1,710 1,604 1,590 1,642 1,726 2,007 1,833
1,516 1,492 1,540 1,553 1,626 1,649 1,592 1,643 1,968 2,027
1,504 1,442 1,536 1,611 1,575 1,605 1,764 1,751 1,974 2,041
1,467 1,494 1,641 1,559 1,559 1,636 1,717 1,867 1,827 2,065
1,472 1,437 1,698 1,669 1,463 1,670 1,655 1,897 1,986 2,062
1,557 1,390 1,614 1,648 1,541 1,567 1,633 1,833 2,025 2,081
1,475 1,546 1,582 1,635 1,507 1,562 1,804 1,939 1,912 2,160
1,392 1,520 1,715 1,608 1,549 1,540 1,648 1,967 2,062 2,051
1,489 1,510 1,660 1,648 1,551 1,602 1,753 2,083 1,807 2,136
1,370 1,566 1,792 1,708 1,532 1,568 1,788 2,057 2,050 1,989
1,469 1,475 1,621 1,647 1,573 1,601 1,710 1,854 1,950 2,072
Year
Total Privately owned.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
4,435 4,019 3,970 3,595 3,704 3,864 3,735 3,177 2,904 2,994
4,459 4,113 4,048 3,688 3,811 4,013 3,826 3,202 2,904 3,076
4,357 4,067 4,062 3,726 3,887 3,951 3,756 3,249 2,873 3,056
4,251 3,963 4,158 3,698 3,960 4,095 3,273 3,308 2,966 2,866
4,153 4,017 4,084 3,581 2,738 3,955 3,316 3,211 2,966 2,687
4,156 3,915 NA 3,512 3,902 NA 3,242 3,075 2,966 2,554
4,038 3,871 NA 3,485 3,936 3,961 3,230 3,085 2,966 2,641
3,918 3,875 NA 3,533 3,878 3,938 3,136 3,081 3,030 2,497
3,965 3,927 NA 3,491 3,848 4,076 3,098 3,158 3,030 2,986
3,939 3,925 NA 3,562 3,957 4,100 3,173 3,076 3,031 3,059
3,906 3,865 NA 3,536 3,875 4,248 3,127 3,055 2,450
NA = Not available.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
Lumber (Softw ood)2 Production in the United States Year
1
In Millions of Board Feet
4,293 3,973 3,884 3,519 3,639 3,919 4,784 3,175 2,904 2,912
Preliminary.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
50,863 52,209 54,262 53,934 53,828 56,050 56,952 61,828 14,310 16,172 16,232 15,114 16,047 14,673 16,046
F eb.
Stocks (Gross) of Softw ood Lumber in the United States, on First of Month
1
18,002 18,686 19,178 19,449 20,075 20,986 21,188 24,498 5,214 6,656 6,758 5,870 6,741 5,474 6,067
Jan.
Preliminary.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
1,179 1,567 1,641 1,629 1,724 1,832 1,750 1,966 464 519 517 466 512 469 525
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
U.S. Housing Starts: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Year
In Millions of Board Feet
--------------------------------------- Domestic Consumption ------------------------------Inland California Southern West Other Softwood Total Region Redwood Pine Coast Softwood Imports Softwood
In Millions of Board Feet
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
2,600 3,012 2,767 2,783 3,020 2,832 3,019 2,971 3,037 3,233
2,606 2,791 2,760 2,921 3,128 2,457 2,761 2,801 2,978 3,169
2,757 2,866 2,928 3,190 3,474 2,918 3,074 2,937 3,380 3,596
2,903 3,149 3,084 3,227 3,058 2,928 3,284 2,994 3,434 3,486
2,833 2,890 2,647 3,071 3,276 NA 3,126 2,931 3,021 3,339
2,819 3,027 3,051 3,318 3,249 3,032 3,200 3,109 3,329 3,535
2,942 3,097 3,079 3,115 2,730 2,812 3,104 3,088 3,227 3,248
3,077 2,889 2,930 3,054 2,971 3,240 3,128 2,981 3,271 3,490
2,858 2,905 2,953 2,992 2,839 2,743 2,862 3,052 3,147 3,385
3,179 3,094 3,167 3,096 3,041 3,188 3,386 3,335 3,321 3,574
2,758 2,536 2,667 2,954 2,761 2,740 2,599 2,793 3,082 3,135
2,424 2,487 2,754 2,795 2,342 2,372 2,482 2,740 2,931
33,756 34,743 34,787 36,516 35,889 34,104 36,025 35,732 38,158 40,571
Preliminary.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
161
LUMBER & PLYWOOD
Lumber: USD Per 1,000 Board Feet ----- White-Fir, 2x4 (Jan. 1959 - Dec. 1970) Spruce-Hem-Fir, 2x4 (Jan. 1971 - Mar. 1980) Spruce-Pine-Fir, 2x4 (Apr. 1980 - date) Plywood: USD Per 1,000 Square Feet - - - Sheathing, 1/2”-B (Aug. 1975 - date)
Lumber (Softw ood)2 Shipments in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Board Feet
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
2,460 2,966 2,685 2,689 2,953 2,859 3,032 3,018 3,067 3,264
2,581 2,697 2,685 2,829 3,039 2,372 2,815 2,742 2,840 3,087
2,863 2,890 2,863 3,177 3,394 2,981 3,049 2,843 3,262 3,506
3,002 3,253 3,019 3,227 2,974 2,974 3,212 3,134 3,582 3,506
2,934 2,834 2,684 3,071 3,292 NA 3,064 2,969 3,061 3,542
2,813 3,126 3,175 3,383 3,309 2,961 3,260 3,173 3,385 3,696
3,058 3,139 3,132 3,141 2,686 2,936 3,234 3,209 3,485 3,389
3,196 2,885 2,963 3,004 3,027 3,279 3,111 3,137 3,372 3,512
2,813 2,852 2,948 3,037 2,871 2,644 2,858 3,030 3,086 3,413
3,206 3,096 3,205 3,021 2,931 3,166 3,299 3,413 3,345 3,542
2,792 2,598 2,703 2,944 2,752 2,732 2,675 2,787 3,135 3,100
2,353 2,461 2,865 2,691 2,444 2,396 2,501 2,722 2,964
34,071 34,797 34,927 36,214 35,672 34,145 36,110 36,177 38,584 40,971
Preliminary.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
Imports and Exports of Lumber in the United States, by Type
In Millions of Board Feet
------------------------------------------ Exports2 -------------------------------------------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 I II III
------------------------------------------------ Imports2 ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- Softw ood -------------------------Pond-------------------------------- Softw are --------------------------------erosa/ Douglas Total Total Douglas White Southern Total C edar Fir Hemlock Pine Spruce Total Hardwood Lumber Fir Hemlock Pine Pine Total Hardwood
727 586 514 591 694 667 648 536 630 151 196 155
264 264 417 426 455 471 385 356 587 100 140 147
257 250 268 259 184 199 69 53 67 16 19 21
133 314 363 449 450 365 445 472 697 121 122 106
1,989 1,040 849 803 812 838 1,046 854 1,183 322 554 458
18,214 18,014 18,686 19,178 19,449 20,075 20,986 21,188 24,498 5,632 6,686 6,345
397 465 589 708 795 645 739 794 995 260 289 279
18,641 18,506 19,306 19,903 20,268 20,737 21,774 22,023 25,515 5,897 6,985 6,646
685 436 252 249 232 168 111 96 88 21 19 18
195 105 39 54 46 26 19 18 19 4 3 7
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes sawed timber, board planks & scantlings, flooring, box shook and railroad ties. Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
1
162
97 122 113 140 116 86 83 100 93 31 30 28
315 299 279 326 298 232 205 132 156 41 47 46
1,935 1,820 1,265 1,431 1,355 968 848 948 821 202 228 229
1,141 1,281 1,119 1,242 1,319 1,222 1,219 1,236 3,021 828 943 835
Total Lumber
3,173 3,189 2,601 2,867 2,822 2,351 2,313 2,368 4,058 1,079 1,299 1,278
LUMBER & PLYWOOD
Average Open Interest of Random Lumber1 Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
3,378 3,745 4,249 4,864 3,004 4,605 2,106 3,238 2,884 3,759
4,040 3,211 3,332 5,497 3,131 4,494 2,382 3,222 3,996 5,169
3,752 3,048 3,394 4,698 2,728 3,654 2,441 2,521 3,790 5,040
4,395 3,337 4,102 4,456 3,175 3,644 2,011 2,804 5,414 4,705
5,666 2,895 4,353 4,927 3,171 3,867 1,502 2,937 5,436 3,463
4,972 3,137 4,773 6,405 3,218 3,733 2,136 3,188 5,042 3,576
3,280 2,767 4,048 6,263 3,064 2,612 1,879 2,370 5,123 3,401
5,243 3,119 4,081 4,882 3,638 2,949 2,265 2,827 6,216 4,227
4,743 3,267 3,466 3,457 3,845 2,148 2,654 3,492 4,667 3,913
4,797 4,006 4,295 3,704 4,277 2,102 2,974 3,033 3,826 3,883
4,341 3,606 3,434 2,963 4,208 2,173 3,315 1,824 3,489 4,713
3,691 4,068 3,893 2,868 4,405 2,416 3,249 1,887 3,540 5,202
Through March 1996, Lumber and Random Lumber.
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Random Lumber1 Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Contracts
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
22,954 28,561 19,556 25,962 19,871 21,567 15,328 24,241 17,921 20,838
19,960 20,946 20,339 22,184 19,486 15,076 13,239 17,533 17,713 20,257
20,956 21,071 20,881 28,151 18,936 24,561 16,401 17,027 22,544 24,595
27,094 24,624 24,673 22,618 16,136 22,458 13,910 11,573 25,743 20,360
28,271 18,248 20,519 23,835 21,003 23,681 12,427 20,132 19,951 17,338
26,100 24,797 24,112 30,410 18,057 18,878 11,950 21,840 17,190 17,115
19,302 20,308 21,763 30,791 16,636 15,210 12,046 21,097 22,672 16,244
27,792 18,503 20,453 25,683 16,563 16,440 10,154 22,418 20,902 19,590
31,982 21,736 19,412 24,177 19,037 12,882 13,518 22,891 24,238 22,895
32,042 24,416 19,578 18,125 17,155 11,608 13,442 19,387 17,111 15,896
25,236 15,131 22,002 20,802 20,706 11,989 15,828 12,480 17,271 23,404
22,525 21,977 16,559 15,118 17,582 12,490 16,180 13,272 19,617 17,709
304,214 260,318 249,847 287,856 221,168 206,840 164,423 223,891 242,873 236,241
Through March 1996, Lumber and Random Lumber.
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
163
LUMBER & PLYWOOD Production of Plyw ood by Selected Countries
In Thousands of Cubic Meters
Year
Austria
Canada
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Poland
Romania
Russia
Spain
Sweden
United States
150 150 155 155 186 186 186 186
2,128 2,049 2,228 2,244 2,326 2,176 2,206 2,344
908 992 1,076 1,096 1,140 1,240 1,300 1,355
539 541 546 558 509 459 415 435
448 428 364 357 321 285 245 283
414 420 450 450 418 450 441 415
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
226 178 223 261 242 261 289 295
87 76 65 72 79 90 94 117
884 1,102 1,324 1,484 1,590 1,821 1,978 2,233
210 382 382 380 380 360 370 375
123 114 105 110 106 87 75 75
17,554 17,468 17,551 17,271 15,417 15,307 14,870 14,926
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
NA = Not available.
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Imports of Plyw ood by Selected Countries
In Thousands of Cubic Meters
Year
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
110 121 136 151 138 156 180 143
684 539 530 534 526 505 573 613
256 273 222 230 520 489 509 723
226 302 222 247 250 254 394 461
353 359 365 348 358 220 218 220
1,095 1,105 1,021 1,149 1,088 905 1,103 1,156
312 378 367 422 425 558 558 581
5,326 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
394 528 558 594 600 541 527 527
148 147 152 178 157 152 161 164
138 143 150 153 143 128 130 140
967 969 972 1,041 1,145 1,297 1,253 1,474
1,592 1,964 2,494 2,385 3,010 3,890 4,249 6,126
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
NA = Not available.
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Exports of Plyw ood by Selected Countries Year
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
Russia
Spain
United States
172 180 192 246 286 240 262 262
198 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
101 371 403 380 378 371 438 468
557 755 956 941 1,030 1,056 1,017 1,028
725 832 939 1,006 1,009 1,117 1,172 1,234
201 222 243 231 200 190 187 190
152 166 160 210 232 167 200 232
125 139 139 146 125 204 208 201
68 56 51 55 57 43 32 32
95 93 95 109 128 138 149 149
559 736 913 974 1,032 1,157 1,201 1,438
77 331 220 152 86 82 84 114
984 833 712 673 530 523 512 617
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
In Thousands of Cubic Meters
Baltic States
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
NA = Not available.
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Imports of Industrial Roundw ood by Selected Countries
In Thousands of Cubic Meters
Year
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United States
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
5,277 5,113 7,093 8,451 7,493 7,289 7,498 8,402
2,823 2,823 3,393 3,992 4,505 2,653 2,755 2,755
6,685 6,955 6,157 6,507 7,557 6,941 6,615 6,696
6,734 9,235 10,160 9,875 11,869 12,586 12,869 12,961
1,806 1,980 2,154 2,012 1,994 1,993 2,250 2,140
1,770 2,255 2,722 3,549 3,493 2,623 2,519 1,916
4,504 5,223 4,952 5,805 5,211 4,703 4,323 4,614
2,855 3,494 3,037 3,315 2,772 2,561 2,722 2,866
288 371 590 732 882 726 663 663
1,679 2,122 1,432 1,340 1,109 901 468 364
2,116 4,136 3,228 3,771 4,128 3,374 3,295 2,973
7,655 9,172 10,280 11,721 9,505 9,705 9,021 9,398
582 970 1,855 2,453 2,430 2,687 2,551 2,322
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Exports of Industrial Roundw ood by Selected Countries Year
Canada
Estonia
France
Germany
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Russia
Slovakia
Sweden
Switzerland
United States
701 2,029 2,213 2,903 3,835 4,471 5,004 4,746
2,657 2,497 2,626 1,857 2,276 2,302 2,955 2,858
2,915 3,792 3,903 4,257 3,482 3,132 3,029 2,297
2,282 2,857 3,093 5,522 5,116 4,244 4,111 3,726
4,032 4,871 4,552 5,558 4,906 4,907 4,592 4,748
701 1,204 1,079 1,282 1,227 1,210 1,366 1,366
2,124 2,760 2,953 4,190 3,990 4,225 3,922 4,058
765 792 938 1,200 1,314 1,420 1,378 1,177
17,845 19,972 27,600 30,835 31,693 36,800 37,518 41,553
850 714 1,193 1,550 1,550 1,187 1,034 1,142
1,393 1,420 1,315 1,431 1,303 1,755 1,520 865
1,147 1,006 1,220 3,754 3,149 1,970 1,748 2,058
10,864 12,290 11,739 11,952 11,412 11,068 10,288 10,401
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
164
In Thousands of Cubic Meters
Czech Republic
2
Estimate.
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Magnesium Magnesium (symbol Mg) is a silvery-white, light, and fairly tough, metallic element and is relatively stable. Magnesium is one of the alkaline earth metals. Magnesium is the eighth most abundant element in the earth’s crust and the third most plentiful element found in seawater. Magnesium is ductile and malleable when heated, and with the exception of beryllium, is the lightest metal that remains stable under ordinary conditions. First isolated by the British chemist Sir Humphrey Davy in 1808, magnesium today is obtained mainly by electrolysis of fused magnesium chloride. Magnesium compounds, primarily magnesium oxide, are used in the refractory material that line the furnaces used to produce iron and steel, nonferrous metals, glass, and cement. Magnesium oxide and other compounds are also used in the chemical, agricultural, and construction industries. Magnesium’s principal use is as an alloying addition for aluminum. These aluminum-magnesium alloys are used primarily in beverage cans. Due to their lightness and considerable tensile strength, the alloys are also used in structural components in airplanes and automobiles. Prices – The price of magnesium in 2005 rose to an average of $1.44 per pound, up 1.3% from $1.42 in 2004 and up sharply by 38% from $1.04 in 2003. However, the recent price of magnesium is still well below the record high of in the $1.93-2.25 range seen in 1995.
2004 rose sharply by +17.7% yr/yr to a new record high of 584,000 metric tons. The current level of magnesium production has more than doubled since the mid-1970s (production was 249,367 metric tons in 1976). The world’s largest primary producers of magnesium are China with 426,000 metric tons of production in 2004, the US with production of 72,000 metric tons, Russia with 50,000 metric tons, and Canada with 54,000 metric tons. China’s production has increased six-fold over the past 5 years from 70,500 metric tons in 1998 to 426,000 metric tons in 2004. Brazil’s production has grown by six-fold from the early 1980s. Canada’s production has grown by more than seven-fold from the mid1980s. Demand – Total US consumption of primary magnesium in 2004 rose +0.6% to 50,300 metric tons. US consumption of magnesium for structural products in 2004 rose +36.2% yr/yr to 71,843 metric tons. Of the structural product consumption category, 97% was for castings and the remaining 3% was for wrought products. US consumption of magnesium for aluminum alloys rose +0.3% yr/yr in 2004 to 33,900 metric tons. The consumption category for magnesium of “other uses” rose by +1.2% yr/yr in 2004 to 16,400 metric tons. Trade – US exports of magnesium in 2004 fell –42.2% yr/yr to a record low of 11,400 metric tons. US imports of magnesium in 2004 rose +18.3% yr/yr to a record high of 98,700 metric tons.
Supply – World primary production of magnesium in
World Production of Magnesium (Primary and Secondary) Year
------------------------------------------------ Primary Production --------------------------------------------------- ---------------------- Secondary Production ---------------------United World United United Former World Brazil Canada China France Norway Russia States Total Japan Kingdom States USSR Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
In Metric Tons
8,000 5,700 5,500 6,000 6,000 6,000
Preliminary.
2
73,700 80,000 83,000 88,000 54,000 54,000
Estimate.
120,000 190,000 200,000 250,000 340,000 426,000
16,200 16,500 4,000 ----------
40,800 41,400 36,000 10,000 -------
W = Withheld proprietary data.
45,000 45,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 50,000
W W W W W W
341,000 422,000 428,000 452,000 496,000 584,000
7,732 7,900 7,800 ----------
500 500 500 ----------
86,100 82,300 65,800 ----------
NA NA NA ----------
96,000 92,300 75,700 ----------
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Magnesium in the United States
In Metric Tons
------------------- Production ---------------------- Secondary ---Year
Primary (Ingot)
New Scrap
Old Scrap
W W W W W W
52,000 52,200 38,600 47,100 44,700 51,600
34,200 30,100 27,200 26,400 25,400 20,500
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 Preliminary. Valasco, Texas.
1
2
Total Total Exports3
86,100 82,300 65,800 73,600 70,100 72,100
29,100 23,800 19,600 25,400 20,400 11,800
Imports for Consumption
Stocks D e c. 3 1 4
90,700 91,400 68,500 88,000 83,400 98,700
W W W W W W
$ Price -------- Domestic Consumption of Primary Magnesium -------Total Aluminum Other Per Castings Wrought Pound5 ----- Structural Products ----Alloys Uses6 Total
1.40-1.55 1.23-1.30 1.21-1.28 1.10-1.22 1.10-1.17 1.55-1.60
49,181 29,457 44,712 46,362 49,565 69,603
9,380 2,120 3,280 4,350 3,190 2,240
58,561 31,577 47,992 50,712 52,755 71,843
57,800 55,400 35,000 34,900 33,800 33,900
14,900 17,400 12,700 16,000 16,200 16,400
72,700 72,800 47,700 50,900 50,000 50,300
Estimate. 3 Metal & alloys in crude form & scrap. 4 Estimate of I ndustry Stocks, metal. 5 Magnesium ingots (99.8%), f.o.b. 6 Distributive or sacrificial purposes. W = Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Price of Magnesium
In Dollars Per Pound
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1.10 1.08 1.02 1.08 1.60
1.10 1.08 1.03 1.11 1.57
1.10 1.08 1.03 1.23 1.57
1.10 1.08 1.03 1.30 1.57
1.09 1.08 1.03 1.42 1.54
1.08 1.08 1.03 1.55 1.48
1.08 1.08 1.03 1.55 1.40
1.08 1.08 1.03 1.55 1.40
1.08 1.08 1.04 1.55 1.33
1.08 1.08 1.05 1.55 1.32
1.08 1.06 1.05 1.60 1.29
1.08 1.02 1.05 1.60 1.25
1.09 1.07 1.04 1.42 1.44
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
165
Manganese Manganese (symbol Mn) is a silvery-white, very brittle, metallic element used primarily in making alloys. Manganese was first distinguished as an element and isolated in 1774 by Johan Gottlieb Gahn. Manganese dissolves in acid and corrodes in moist air. Manganese is found in the earth’s crust in the form of ores such as rhodochrosite, franklinite, psilomelane, and manganite. Pyrolusite is the principal ore of manganese. Pure manganese is produced by igniting pyrolusite with aluminum powder or by electrolyzing manganese sulfate. Manganese is used primarily in the steel industry for creating alloys, the most important ones being ferromanganese and spiegeleisen. In steel, manganese improves forging and rolling qualities, strength, toughness, stiffness, wear resistance, and hardness. Manganese is also used in plant fertilizers, animal feed, pigments, and dry cell batteries. Prices – The average monthly price of ferromanganese (high carbon, FOB plant) fell sharply by 52% yr/yr in 2005 to $637.69 per gross ton from the record high of $1,355.90 per gross ton posted in 2004. The 2005 price, however, was still far above the 17-year low of $447.44 per gross ton posted as recently as 2001. Supply – World production of manganese ore in 2004
World Production of Manganese Ore
rose by +9.1% to 26.3 million metric tons, which was a 23year high. That was well above the record low of 17.8 million metric tons posted in 1999. The world’s largest producers of manganese ore are China with 17% of world production in 2004, South Africa with 16%, Australia with 13%, Brazil with 10%, and the Ukraine with 9%. China’s production in 2004 was 4.0 million metric tons, and that was down sharply from its record production level of 7.6 million metric tons in 1996. Demand – US consumption of manganese ore in 2004 rose +10.8% to 441,000 metric tons, continuing to recover from the record low of 360,000 metric tons in 2002. US consumption of ferromanganese in 2004 rose 27.0% yr/yr to a 7year high of 315,000 metric tons, but that was still almost a third less than US consumption of 908,000 metric tons in 1970. Trade – The US still relies on imports for 100% of its manganese consumption, as it has since 1985. US imports of manganese ore for consumption in 2004 rose +30.0% yr/ yr to 451,000 metric tons. US imports of ferromanganese for consumption in 2004 rose +80.3% yr/yr to a 15-year high of 429,000 metric tons. US imports of silico-manganese in 2004 rose +58.1% yr/yr to 422,000 metric tons. The primary sources of US imports of manganese ore in 2004 were Gabon with 188,000 metric tons of imports, Australia (27,700 metric tons), and South Africa (13,200 metric tons).
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Year
Australia2 37-534
Brazil 374
China 20-304
Gabon 45-534
Georgia 29-304
Ghana 32-344
India 10-544
Kazakstan 29-304
Mexico 27-504
South Africa 30-48+4
Ukraine 29-304
Other
World Total
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
2,180 2,109 2,136 1,500 1,892 1,614 2,069 2,187 2,555 3,381
2,398 2,506 2,124 1,940 1,656 1,925 1,970 2,529 2,544 2,732
6,900 7,600 6,000 5,300 3,190 3,500 4,300 4,500 4,600 4,500
1,930 1,983 1,904 2,092 1,908 1,743 1,791 1,856 2,000 2,500
100 97 -------------------------
217 448 437 537 639 896 1,077 1,136 1,509 1,624
1,764 1,797 1,596 1,557 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,700 1,650 1,700
428 430 400 634 980 1,136 1,387 1,792 2,361 2,400
472 485 534 510 459 435 277 233 310 376
3,199 3,240 3,121 3,044 3,122 3,635 3,266 3,322 3,501 4,207
3,200 3,070 3,040 2,226 1,985 2,741 2,700 2,470 2,591 2,362
607 632 608 522 458 433 490 474 490 494
23,300 24,300 21,900 19,900 17,800 19,600 20,900 22,200 24,100 26,300
1
Preliminary.
2
Metallurgical Ore.
3
Concentrate.
4
Ranges of percentage of manganese.
Salient Statistics of Manganese in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Consumption
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Manganese Ore ---------------- (35% or More Manganese) ---------------- ------------- Ferromanganese ------------Imports Imports for ConConStocks, for ConConsumption Exports sumption D e c. 3 1 3 sumption Exports sumption
394 478 355 332 460 447 358 427 347 451
15 32 84 8 4 10 9 15 18 123
486 478 510 499 479 486 425 360 398 441
309 319 241 163 172 226 138 151 156 159
310 374 304 339 312 312 251 275 238 429
11 10 12 14 12 8 9 9 11 9
348 326 337 290 281 300 266 253 248 315
Avg. Price Mn. Metallurgical ---- Silicomanganese ---Ore $ Lg. Ton Unit4 Exports Imports
2.40 2.55 2.44 2.40 2.26 2.39 2.44 2.30 2.41 2.89
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncluding bonded warehouses; excludes Gov't stocks; also excludes small tonnages of dealers' stocks. C.I .F. U.S. Ports. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
166
7.8 5.3 5.4 6.7 3.7 1.9 3.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 4
305.0 323.0 306.0 346.0 301.0 378.0 269.0 247.0 267.0 422.0
46-48% Mn,
MANGANESE
USD Per Gross Ton ----- Baltimore, (Jan. 1908 - Dec. 1920) FOB Plant (Jan. 1921 - date)
No Quotes Oct. 1984 - Apr. 1987
Imports3 of Manganese Ore (20% or More Mn) in the United States Year
Australia
Brazil
Gabon
Mexico
Morocco
South Africa
31,600 48,900 16,400 18,700 23,500 18,100 18,000 18,400 12,900 27,700
7,080 5,640 9,100 12,100 1 3,250 3,480 12,900 7 ----
104,000 140,000 99,400 94,900 142,000 188,000 158,000 140,000 123,000 188,000
23,600 16,100 30,100 14,600 9,130 3,250 1,720 1,100 1,520 1,640
37 9 37 ----------------------
13,100 20,800 ---13,800 39,100 ---17,400 41,800 36,900 13,200
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
I mports for consumption.
Average Price of Ferromanganese Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Metric Tons (Mn Content)
Jan.
560.00 477.50 175.00 510.00 482.50 473.93 430.00 509.52 610.00 904.50
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
Total
Customs Value Thous. $
187,000 231,000 156,000 160,000 224,000 219,000 199,000 214,000 175,000 234,000
33,300 42,400 30,800 27,800 37,200 32,100 28,000 29,200 27,000 37,700
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Dollars Per Gross Ton D e c.
Average
552.50 550.00 550.00 541.00 535.00 533.13 527.50 527.50 527.50 501.25 477.50 467.50 470.00 482.50 490.00 490.00 490.00 492.50 475.00 475.00 475.00 475.00 175.00 175.00 190.00 190.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 510.00 498.75 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 482.50 501.63 505.00 509.00 510.00 510.00 477.50 467.89 460.00 454.29 450.00 450.00 446.90 444.57 430.79 430.00 430.00 430.00 430.00 437.14 447.73 449.55 456.75 481.82 556.14 597.00 589.67 552.89 518.93 510.00 502.38 497.61 492.50 481.79 477.27 470.00 478.57 497.83 516.67 559.76 790.00 1,382.61 1,700.00 1,700.00 1,674.43 1,490.34 1,488.64 1,500.00 1,371.43 1,207.50 1,019.52 818.68 739.46 651.67 586.19 547.39 528.13 512.07 522.14 550.24 597.75 694.05
531.91 480.00 497.92 495.21 492.40 447.44 495.64 499.49 1,327.87 637.69
Domestic standard, high carbon, FOB plant, carloads.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
167
Meats US commercial red meat includes beef, veal, lamb, and pork. Red meat is a good source of iron, vitamin B12, and protein, and eliminating it from the diet can lead to iron and zinc deficiencies. Today, red meat is far leaner than it was 30 years ago due to newer breeds of livestock that carry less fat. The leanest cuts of beef include tenderloin, sirloin, and flank. The leanest cuts of pork include pork tenderloin, loin chops, and rib chops. The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) grades various cuts of meat. “Prime” is the highest USDA grade for beef, veal, and lamb. “Choice” is the grade designation below Prime for beef, veal, and lamb. “Commercial” and “Cutter” grades are two of the lower designations for beef, usually sold as ground meat, sausage, and canned meat. “Canner” is the lowest USDA grade designation for beef and is used primarily in canned meats not sold at retail. Supply – World meat production in 2005 rose +1.8% to a new record high of 142.901 million metric tons. China is by far the world’s largest meat producer with 54.610 million metric tons of production in 2005 (+4.6% yr/yr), accounting for 38% of world production. Other major world meat producers include the US with 14% of world production. US production of meat in 2005 rose by +1.4% yr/yr to 46.082 billion pounds, which was still below the record high
World Total Meat Production3 Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 20062 1 4
of 47.305 billion pounds produced in 2002. US production of beef in 2005 rose +1.4% yr/yr to 24.876 billion pounds, which was moderately below the record of 27.192 billion pounds in 2002. Beef accounted for 59.0% of all US meat production. US production of pork in 2005 rose +1.3% yr/yr to a new record high of 20.821 billion pounds. Pork accounts for 43.0% of US meat production. Veal accounts for only 0.4% of US meat production, and lamb and mutton also account for only 0.4% of US meat production. Demand – US per capita meat consumption in 2005 rose 0.8% to 120.0 pounds per person per year, but that is only slightly above the record low of 118 pounds per person reflecting the trend towards eating more chicken and fish and the availability of meat substitutes. Per capita beef consumption in 2005 remained at 66.0 pounds per person per year, which was about one-half the record high of 127.5 pounds seen in 1976. Per capita pork consumption in 2005 remained at 52.0 pounds per person per year for the fourth year in a row, which was only slightly above the record low of 50.0 pounds posted in 2001. Trade – World red meat exports in 2005 rose +4.3% to a new record high of 10.797 million metric tons. The world’s largest red meat exporters are Brazil with 20% of world exports in 2005, Australia with 13%, and the US with 11%.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China4
France
Germany
Italy
Mexico
Russia
2,648 2,890 2,928 2,640 2,700 2,800 3,130 3,200 3,100
2,973 2,940 2,986 2,428 2,496 2,493 2,476 2,510 2,150
7,830 8,105 8,530 9,125 9,805 9,945 10,575 11,392 11,585
2,544 2,802 2,886 2,981 3,148 3,072 3,432 3,390 3,360
45,982 47,670 48,292 47,333 49,112 51,491 53,775 56,825 59,575
4,065 4,086 3,966 3,740
5,244 5,532 5,331 5,195
2,595 2,707 2,692 2,475
2,852 2,999 3,045 2,990 3,015 3,050 3,249 3,320 3,375
3,775 3,544 3,494 3,320 3,370 3,380 3,315 3,280 3,255
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
2,367 2,238 2,134 1,642
20,541 20,994 20,991 20,674 21,356 21,095 20,573 20,709 21,523
135,368 138,510 139,351 133,527 138,043 139,227 142,720 146,449 150,799
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Data through 2000, includes beef, veal, pork, sheep and goat meat. Beginning 2001, excludes sheep and goat. Predominately pork production. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Production and Consumption of Red Meats in The United States ----------------- Beef ----------------- --------------- Veal --------------- ------- Lamb & Mutton ------- ---- Pork (Excluding Lard) ---- ------------- All Meats -------------
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 20062
CommerCommerCommerci a l ci a l ci a l -- Consumption -- Consumption - Consumption ProProProP er P er P er Total Capita duction duction Total Capita duction Total Capita
CommerCommerci a l ci a l -- Consumption --- Consumption -ProProP er P er duction duction Total Capita Total Capita
-- Million Pounds --
-- Million Pounds --
25,760 26,493 26,888 26,212 27,192 26,339 24,650 24,796 26,052
26,305 26,936 27,338 27,026 27,877 27,000 27,750 27,761 28,642
Lbs.4 - Million Pounds -
93.3 68.0 68.0 66.0 68.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 67.0
262 235 225 205 205 202 176 165 180
265 235 225 204 204 204 177 164 181
Lbs.4 - Million Pounds -
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
251 248 234 227 223 203 200 192 206
360 358 354 368 381 367 372 352 378
Lbs.4
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
19,011 19,308 18,952 19,160 19,685 19,966 20,529 20,702 21,235
18,309 18,954 18,643 18,492 19,146 19,436 19,437 19,097 19,457
Lbs.4 -- Million Pounds --
65.3 53.0 51.0 50.0 52.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 50.0
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 4 Data through 1998, are for Carcass weight. Beginning 1998, data are for Retail-weight basis. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
168
45,284 46,284 46,299 45,804 47,305 46,710 45,555 45,855 47,673
45,239 46,483 46,560 46,089 47,608 47,006 47,735 47,374 48,658
Lbs.4
160.6 122.0 121.0 118.0 121.0 118.0 119.0 117.0 119.0
MEATS Total Red Meat Imports3 (Carcass Weight Equivalent) of Principal Countries Year
Canada
France
Germany
303 296 319 331 390 398 365 216 272 285
47 44 53 53 19
132 125 135 138 72
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 20062
Hong Kong
217 267 284 318 331 346 383 399 420
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
64 57 61 61 56
1,767 1,783 1,939 2,067 2,023 1,840 1,984 1,949 2,039 1,937
303 191 398 498 369 586 597 438 571 487
Netherlands
56 32 25 21 32
Russia
1,951 1,429 1,705 1,033 1,210 1,460 1,445 1,359 1,355 1,410
In Thousands of Metric Tons Singapore
United Kingdom
United States
Total
36 31 39 38 32
293 255 256 260 164
1,383 1,557 1,729 1,865 1,866 1,945 1,901 2,168 2,096 2,037
6,707 7,771 8,859 8,606 8,096 8,898 8,925 8,921 9,212 9,068
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Data through 2000, includes beef, veal, pork, sheep and goat meat. Beginning 2001, excludes sheep and goat. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
1
Total Red Meat Exports3 (Carcass Weight Equivalent) of Principal Countries Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Denmark
France
India
Ireland
Netherlands
460 304 360 358 169 348 386 623 759 500
1,465 1,596 1,672 1,762 1,466 1,444 1,338 1,453 1,466 1,455
314 411 573 654 1,085 1,471 1,778 2,249 2,628 2,425
802 860 1,046 1,183 1,302 1,474 1,359 1,532 1,636 1,660
267 242 141 133 199 260 325 444 422 400
531 490 594 590 555
282 214 333 222 185
231 263 236 360 370 417 439 499 620 675
271 308 369 284 77
202 150 209 214 147
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 20062
New Zealand
United States
World Total
979 977 892 905 516 505 558 606 589 625
1,446 1,546 1,677 1,705 1,737 1,841 1,921 1,198 1,520 1,661
9,003 9,168 10,052 9,856 9,008 10,065 10,459 11,180 12,060 11,947
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Data through 2000, includes beef, veal, pork, sheep and goat meat. Beginning 2001, excludes sheep and goat. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
1
United States Meat Imports by Type of Product ---------------- Beef and Veal ----------------
Fresh
Frozen
Other Prepared or Preserved
175,540 227,874 262,985 295,820 337,899 336,117 368,529 400,484 285,772
466,378 412,805 469,949 527,063 542,524 608,737 618,897 586,500 612,569
65,399 66,719 63,181 68,884 82,669 73,750 73,713 84,640 85,439
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 0 0 31 1
Preliminary.
NSE = Not specified elsewhere.
Lamb, Mutton and Goat, Except Canned
29,844 33,009 37,848 51,630 50,209 59,968 66,785 73,863 77,546
------------------------- Pork -------------------------
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
262,381 273,276 316,534 346,403 370,184 395,588 393,105 407,599 430,071
Preliminary.
319,416 324,329 359,460 352,050 414,458 417,538 362,972 393,836 390,543
13,651 14,577 15,227 17,966 19,323 21,791 23,932 27,232 37,572
Fresh and Chilled
Frozen
Other Prepared or Preserved
133,101 125,220 126,061 146,965 188,556 229,395 240,275 276,639 293,169
61,286 58,336 65,000 70,227 77,638 91,446 84,687 90,423 107,749
79,155 72,650 72,903 76,230 84,207 92,672 83,724 87,876 104,387
Variety Meats, Fresh, hilled and Frozen
Other Livestock Meats NSE
Total
26,081 32,579 44,317 47,031 51,640 57,388 62,541 55,384 47,688
12,539 13,744 14,215 13,058 13,625 14,281 16,723 19,401 21,367
1,049,324 1,042,934 1,156,457 1,296,907 1,428,966 1,563,753 1,615,873 1,675,210 1,635,686
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
United States Meat Exports by Type of Product --------------- Beef and Veal --------------Prepared Fresh and and Preserved Chilled Frozen
In Metric Tons
Lamb and Mutton, Fresh or Frozen
2,511 2,478 2,545 2,528 2,219 2,184 2,770 3,042 2,909
In Metric Tons
------------------------ Pork ---------------------------Prepared Fresh and and Preserved Chilled Frozen
100,235 101,975 134,684 147,006 160,910 208,055 227,807 235,548 237,120
127,835 166,058 151,121 209,134 225,492 185,241 247,461 231,274 257,360
35,766 38,481 38,301 43,789 47,898 44,836 52,788 83,167 83,687
Variety Meats, Fresh, Chilled or Frozen
Other Meats
Total
466,213 495,343 469,789 495,643 524,325 604,738 685,063 592,185 598,726
353,207 434,759 435,258 423,980 455,561 503,942 513,969 619,491 567,565
1,681,215 1,851,276 1,922,918 2,038,500 2,220,369 2,380,912 2,509,866 2,593,374 2,605,553
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
169
MEATS
Cents Per Pound ----- Choice, 1-3, 550-700 Pound (Jan. 1975 - date)
Exports and Imports of Meats in the United States (Carcass Weight Equivalent)3 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------------- Exports ------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------- Imports ----------------------------------------------All B eef Lamb and All B eef Lamb and Meat and Veal Mutton Pork3 Meat and Veal Mutton Pork3
1,877 2,136 2,171 2,412 2,468 2,269 2,447 2,519 434 640
6 5 6 5 5 7 7 7 7 4
970 1,044 1,230 1,277 1,287 1,560 1,611 1,717 2,135 2,145
2,853 3,185 3,407 3,694 3,760 3,836 4,065 4,243 2,576 2,789
2,073 2,343 2,643 2,873 3,032 3,164 3,218 3,006 3,562 3,660
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes meat content of minor meats and of mixed products. U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Average Wholesale Prices of Meats in the United States Composite ------ Retail Price -----Wholesale
Year
of Beef, Choice, Grade 3
of Pork
3
B eef
Pork
Net Farm Value of Pork5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
279.53 277.12 287.76 306.42 337.73 331.53 374.62 406.53 409.09
244.97 242.69 241.44 258.20 269.39 265.75 265.82 279.16 282.69
158.20 153.80 171.55 182.27 192.12 180.02 222.90
123.10 97.30 99.00 114.50 117.80 100.70 107.40
95.30 61.20 60.40 79.40 81.30 61.90 69.60
---------- Value4 ----------
C ow B eef Canner & Cutter, Central US
64.30 61.33 66.51 72.57 79.50 NA NA NA
72 83 112 112 130 146 160 168 182 190
620 634 705 827 967 951 1,070 1,185 1,111 1,215
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Cents Per Pound
Boxed Beef Cut-out, Choice 1-3, Central US, 550-700 L b s.
Pork Carcass Cut-out, US No. 2
103.26 99.86 111.06 117.51 122.61 114.42 143.58 142.15 145.78
70.87 53.08 53.45 64.07 66.83 53.49 58.87 73.53 69.84
Lamb Carcass, Pork ChoiceLoins, Prime, East Coast, Central US, 55-65 Lbs. 14-18 Lbs.
178.67 156.75 170.29 177.78 148.96 151.28 185.21 189.08 209.88
108.89 101.63 100.38 117.13 116.97 97.98 100.96 117.14 113.22
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Sold as retail cuts (ham, bacon, loin, etc.). 4 Quantity equivalent to 1 pound of retail cuts. minus farm by-product allowance. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
170
2,764 3,061 3,461 3,813 4,128 4,260 4,448 4,359 4,855 5,055
5
Skinned Ham, Central US, 20-26 Lbs.
Pork Bellies, Central US, 12-14 Lbs.
69.99 53.07 51.35 60.85 64.86 47.52 45.48 64.98 64.07
73.91 52.38 57.12 77.46 78.61 69.91 86.42 99.35 81.46
Portion of gross farm value
MEATS Average Wholesale Price of Boxed Beef Cut-Out1, Choice, at Central Markets Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
101.71 101.90 100.26 101.37 114.74 129.78 111.99 128.59 138.60 148.93
98.86 98.98 96.27 99.37 112.59 128.87 111.53 128.77 129.29 143.02
96.36 104.87 95.34 103.62 118.42 129.58 120.54 126.35 141.34 150.66
96.01 104.17 98.32 107.55 123.45 128.93 116.61 133.03 157.53 157.34
96.90 105.97 102.09 110.89 124.88 129.03 115.14 141.44 155.70 156.82
100.70 101.83 100.38 115.39 123.30 126.82 114.06 141.16 148.54 140.02
101.53 102.38 99.96 111.14 115.85 118.93 109.88 130.13 140.27 131.19
104.43 105.14 104.28 114.00 111.20 120.20 110.93 139.91 139.33 132.85
105.93 104.06 99.28 115.13 108.68 119.30 111.83 156.64 137.82 137.97
109.10 103.72 102.08 119.21 112.58 115.93 111.64 176.06 138.45 144.30
117.53 104.63 102.61 117.38 118.05 110.95 116.41 167.15 135.64 148.81
108.03 101.50 97.49 117.71 126.41 113.04 122.45 153.71 143.31 157.49
103.09 103.26 99.86 111.05 117.51 122.61 114.42 143.58 142.15 145.78
Choice 1-3, 550-700 pounds.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production (Commercial) of All Red Meats in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Pounds (Carcass Weight)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,823 3,735 3,836 3,833 3,784 3,935 4,081 4,075 3,713 3,648
3,519 3,278 3,476 3,535 3,767 3,761 3,501 3,496 3,404 3,423
3,512 3,444 3,726 4,016 4,044 3,761 3,677 3,705 3,944 3,879
3,690 3,592 3,701 3,824 3,460 3,506 3,902 3,845 3,713 3,622
3,767 3,571 3,582 3,604 3,878 3,881 4,018 3,944 3,597 3,714
3,439 3,492 3,732 3,940 3,941 3,758 3,813 3,948 3,928 3,963
3,585 3,657 3,781 3,781 3,644 3,643 4,016 4,046 3,708 3,616
3,707 3,619 3,770 3,913 4,113 4,060 4,141 3,913 3,878 4,100
3,396 3,665 3,827 3,933 3,861 3,664 3,873 4,007 3,905 3,933
3,827 4,005 4,033 4,002 4,096 4,264 4,382 4,155 3,921 3,926
3,435 3,453 3,725 3,895 3,919 3,970 3,908 3,524 3,770 3,942
3,432 3,715 3,945 3,862 3,619 3,813 3,859 3,876 3,931 3,954
43,132 43,226 45,134 46,138 46,126 46,016 47,171 46,534 45,412 45,719
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of All2 Meats in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
749.7 621.3 722.4 821.0 748.3 836.2 946.8 1,011.5 879.0 979.0
779.5 655.9 802.8 833.0 853.1 907.8 982.6 1,015.2 953.7 966.8
781.6 669.9 825.8 863.1 913.9 852.6 970.7 978.2 926.9 956.2
729.3 719.5 816.3 883.5 934.3 787.9 961.9 951.9 879.4 931.6
748.6 752.5 849.3 936.4 951.3 771.4 996.6 926.8 883.6 909.5
716.2 719.7 814.3 901.2 963.5 772.5 973.0 901.5 829.3 848.5
687.9 742.9 771.0 843.9 926.7 742.2 918.0 847.5 797.9 851.8
642.7 726.3 747.2 810.4 896.2 717.4 912.6 825.0 807.7 857.5
657.4 731.5 728.2 834.9 881.0 732.6 950.7 817.3 841.9 848.8
678.4 728.2 738.8 746.3 871.1 775.3 997.8 832.1 886.1 890.9
655.5 739.1 794.9 780.3 868.0 849.0 1,038.9 836.9 889.2 905.9
627.1 741.0 794.1 750.5 883.0 880.9 997.7 828.1 912.6 888.2
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes beef and veal, mutton and lamb, pork and products, rendered pork fat, and miscellaneous meats. Excludes lard. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Cold Storage Holdings of Froz en Beef in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan. 1
F eb. 1
Mar. 1
Apr. 1
May 1
June 1
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
389.6 284.9 350.2 296.4 314.2 401.7 460.7 524.6 395.1 484.3
367.9 290.3 331.1 301.1 350.9 410.9 455.5 482.4 434.4 453.3
362.6 261.7 334.9 300.1 369.0 360.2 439.0 441.9 435.0 400.2
347.3 290.4 329.7 309.2 378.2 332.6 410.5 403.1 416.8 372.4
335.6 285.4 335.5 316.8 396.1 315.3 405.7 389.7 421.2 329.5
307.4 278.7 310.2 306.7 401.1 325.1 401.8 385.1 402.8 318.3
306.7 305.6 316.5 293.1 405.1 340.8 396.9 371.5 411.8 342.2
291.1 302.8 303.0 292.7 391.5 351.4 416.5 368.2 427.0 385.8
305.2 324.6 306.7 377.9 398.8 373.2 461.8 371.0 446.0 410.6
312.2 349.1 323.1 294.4 405.7 382.8 494.9 379.8 457.2 438.8
295.9 351.6 358.2 322.5 404.4 395.1 525.2 375.2 452.6 439.2
288.1 378.2 328.2 308.9 411.8 427.6 512.6 373.8 463.3 729.8
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
171
Mercury Mercury (symbol Hg) was known to the ancient Hindus and Chinese, and was also found in Egyptian tombs dating back to 1500 BC. The ancient Greeks used mercury in ointments, and the Romans used it in cosmetics. Alchemists thought mercury turned into gold when it hardened. Mercury, also called quicksilver, is a heavy, silvery, toxic, transitional metal. Mercury is the only common metal that is liquid at room temperatures. When subjected to a pressure of 7,640 atmospheres (7.7 million millibars), mercury becomes a solid. Mercury dissolves in nitric or concentrated sulfuric acid, but is resistant to alkalis. It is a poor conductor of heat. Mercury has superconductivity when cooled to sufficiently low temperatures. It has a freezing point of about –39 degrees Celsius and a boiling point of about 357 degrees Celsius. Mercury is found in its pure form or combined in small amounts with silvers, but is found most often in the ore cinnabar, a mineral consisting of mercuric sulfide. By heating the cinnabar ore in air until the mercuric sulfide breaks down, pure mercury metal is produced. Mercury forms alloys called amalgams with all common metals except iron and platinum. Most mercury is used for the manufacture of industrial chemicals and for electrical and electronic applications. Other uses for mercury include its use in gold recovery from ores, barometers, diffusion pumps, laboratory instruments, mercury-vapor lamps, pesticides, batteries, and catalysts. A decline in mercury production and usage since the 1970s reflects a trend for using mercury substitutes due to its toxicity.
World Mine Production of Mercury Year
Preliminary.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
Demand – The breakdown of domestic consumption of mercury by particular categories is no longer available, but the data as of 1997 showed that chlorine and caustic soda accounted for 46% of US mercury consumption, followed by wiring devices and switches (17%), dental equipment (12%), electrical lighting (8%), and measuring control instruments (7%). Substitutes for mercury include lithium and composite ceramic materials. Trade – US foreign trade in mercury is small. US imports of mercury in 2004 rose by 100% yr/yr to 92 metric tons but still far below the 7-year high of 209 metric tons seen in 2002. US imports were mostly from Chile and Peru. US exports of mercury in 2004 fell by –3.1% to 278 metric tons, from last year’s 10-year high of 287 metric tons.
In Metric Tons (1 tonne = 29.008216 flasks)
China
Finland
Kyrgyzstan
Mexico
Spain
Tajikistan
Russia
Ukraine
368 447 224 240 216 321 307 176 110
510 830 230 200 200 190 435 610 610
88 63 54 40 76 71 51 65 65
584 550 250 300 257 300 300 300 300
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
862 389 675 433 500 500 300 150 150
45 40 35 35 40 40 20 30 30
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
30 25 20
2
Estimate. W = Withheld to avoid disclosing company proprietary data.
Salient Statistics of Mercury in the United States Year
Supply – World mine production of mercury in 2004 fell –10.6% yr/yr to a record low of 1,260 metric tons. The record high of 10,364 metric tons was posted in 1971. The world’s largest miners of mercury are China with 48% of world production, Kyrgyzstan with 24%, Spain with 12%, and Algeria with 9%. China’s production held at 610 metric tons in 2004, which is more than triple the record low of 190 metric tons seen in 2001, but well below its record of 1,200 metric tons posted in 1989.
Algeria
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Prices – The average monthly price of mercury in 2005 rose sharply by +107.3% yr/yr to a record high of $774.04 per flask (34.5 kilograms). That was nearly six times the 13-year low of $131.14 posted in 1991.
446 389 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
----------------------------
172
W W
2,560 2,410 1,580 1,320 1,360 1,500 1,490 1,410 1,260
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumer & Dealer Stocks, Dec. 31
Industrial Demand
Exports
Imports
446 203 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
372 346 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
45 134 63 181 182 108 201 287 300
340 164 128 62 103 100 209 46 50
----------------------------
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Secondary mercury shipped from the Department of Energy. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
World Total
In Metric Tons
-------------------- Secondary Production -------------------Producing GovernNDS4 Mines Industrial ment3 Shipments
6 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA = Not available.
United States
4
National Defense Stockpile.
NA = Not available.
MERCURY
USD Per 76 Lb. Flask ----- 75 Lb. Flask, New York (Dec. 1910 - Dec. 1931) 76 Lb. Flask, New York (Jan. 1932 - date)
Average Price of Mercury in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Dollars Per Flask of 76 Pounds (34.5 Kilograms)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
250.00 233.98 187.00 175.00 150.00 142.00 154.00 165.43 200.00 678.57
250.00 232.76 187.00 152.63 157.88 142.00 154.00 175.00 256.25 747.50
261.67 228.88 187.00 150.00 167.50 142.00 154.00 175.00 297.61 867.39
268.33 228.64 187.00 150.00 167.50 142.00 154.00 175.00 305.00 873.81
265.00 220.00 187.00 150.00 167.50 142.00 154.00 185.23 305.00 850.00
265.00 199.05 181.55 150.00 158.23 143.71 154.00 187.50 305.00 817.05
265.00 200.00 175.00 150.00 142.00 154.00 154.00 187.50 305.00 759.52
265.00 198.10 175.00 150.00 142.00 154.00 154.00 187.50 305.00 750.00
265.00 190.83 175.00 150.00 142.00 154.00 154.00 187.50 417.05 813.64
265.00 198.83 175.00 150.00 142.00 154.00 154.00 187.50 485.12 730.95
262.63 191.47 175.00 150.00 142.00 154.00 154.00 195.63 649.24 700.00
235.48 187.00 175.00 150.00 142.00 154.00 154.00 200.00 650.00 700.00
259.84 209.13 180.55 152.09 151.90 148.12 154.00 184.07 373.36 774.04
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Mercu ry C o n su med in th e U n ited S tates Year
Batteri es3
Catalysts, Mi sc.
Dental Equi p.
Electri cal Li ghti ng3
General Lab Use
Measuri ng Contraol Instrument
448 250 106 18 13 10 6 -------------
354 379 247 184 209 180 135 154 136 160
86 40 29 26 20 18 25 -------------
53 39 44 41 42 35 24 32 31 40
31 31 33 39 55 38 27 30 29 29
26 18 32 30 28 26 24 -------------
77 87 108 90 80 65 53 43 41 24
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19961 19972 1
In Metric Tons
Chlori ne & Causti c Soda
P reliminary.
2
E stimate.
W = Withheld proprietary data.
Pai nts
Wi ri ng Devi ces & Swi tches3
Other Uses
Total
197 192 14 6 -------------------------
176 141 70 71 82 83 79 84 49 57
55 32 38 49 92 103 110 93 86 36
1,503 1,212 720 554 621 558 483 436 372 346
S ource: U.S . Geolog ical S urvey (US GS )
173
Milk Evidence of man’s use of animal milk as food was discovered in a temple in the Euphrates Valley near Babylon, dating back to 3,000 BC. Humans drink the milk produced from a variety of domesticated mammals, including cows, goats, sheep, camels, reindeer, buffaloes, and llama. In India, half of all milk consumed is from water buffalo. Camels’ milk spoils slower than other types of milk in the hot desert, but the vast majority of milk used for commercial production and consumption comes from cows. Milk directly from a cow in its natural form is called raw milk. Raw milk is processed by spinning it in a centrifuge, homogenizing it to create a consistent texture (i.e., by forcing hot milk under high pressure through small nozzles), and then sterilizing it through pasteurization (i.e., heating to a high temperature for a specified length of time to destroy pathogenic bacteria). Condensed, powdered, and evaporated milk are produced by evaporating some or all of the water content. Whole milk contains 3.5% milk fat. Lowerfat milks include 2% low-fat milk, 1% low- fat milk, and skim milk which has only 1/2 gram of milk fat per serving. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has three different milk futures contracts: Milk Class III which is milk used in the manufacturing of cheese, Milk Class IV which is milk used in the production of butter and all dried milk products, and Nonfat Dry Milk which is used in commercial or consumer cooking or to reconstitute nonfat milk by the consumer. The Milk Class III contract has the largest volume and open interest. Prices – The average monthly price received by farmers for all milk sold to plants in 2005 fell by –5.6% yr/yr to
World Fluid Milk Production (Cow 's Milk) Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
9,450 10,300 9,800 9,500 8,500 7,950 8,750 9,375
9,722 10,483 11,172 10,864 11,608 10,636 10,377 10,500
21,630 21,700 22,134 22,300 22,635 22,860 23,100 24,016
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
European China Union
6,620 7,176 8,274 10,255 12,998 17,463 22,052 23,700
113,753 129,503 129,392 130,069 131,040 132,044 131,119 132,072
Year
India
Ja p a n
Mexico
New Zealand
Russia
Ukraine
35,500 36,000 36,250 36,400 36,200 36,500 37,500 38,500
8,573 8,457 8,497 8,300 8,385 8,400 8,360 8,320
8,366 8,877 9,305 9,501 9,560 9,784 9,900 10,020
11,640 11,070 12,235 13,162 13,925 14,346 15,000 15,375
33,000 32,000 31,900 33,000 33,500 33,000 32,200 32,200
13,800 13,140 12,400 13,169 13,860 13,400 13,280 13,240
United States
World Total
71,334 373,627 73,750 380,277 75,929 386,769 74,994 391,409 77,140 402,266 77,253 406,582 77,525 411,330 78,950 416,444
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Milk in the United States
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
$15.14 per hundred pounds from last year’s record high of $16.04. The average monthly price received by farmers for fluid grade milk in 2005 fell by –5.5% yr/yr to $15.16. The average monthly price received by farmers for manufacturing grade milk in 2005 fell by -6.1% to $14.47. Supply – The world’s largest milk producers are the European Union with 132.072 million metric tons of production in 2005, the US with 78.950 million metric tons of production, and Russia with 32.200 million metric tons of production. US milk production in 2005 (through November, annualized) rose +3.3% yr/yr to 176.398 billion pounds, which was a new record high. The number of dairy cows on US farms has fallen sharply in the past 3 decades from the 12 million level seen in 1970. In 2005, there were 9.025 million dairy cows on US farms, which was a new record low. Dairy farmers have been able to increase milk production even with fewer cows because of a dramatic increase in milk yield per cow. In 2005, the average cow produced a record 19,528 pounds of milk per year, more than double the 9,751 pounds seen in 1970. Demand – Per capita consumption of milk in the US fell to a new record low of 206 pounds per year in 2002 (the latest data available), down sharply by 26% from 277 pounds in 1977. The utilization breakdown for 2002 shows the largest manufacturing usage categories are cheese (64.504 billion pounds of milk) and creamery butter (30.250 billion pounds). Trade – US imports of milk in 2004 rose +3.5% yr/yr to 5.215 billion pounds, which was moderately below the record of 5.716 billion pounds posted in 2001.
In Millions of Pounds
Average Farm Price P er Number ----- Received Per Cw t. ----Capita of Milk Cows on -------------------------------- Supply -------------------------------- -------------------- Utiliz ation -------------------Milk, ConsumpMilk All Milk, Eligible Farms3 ----- Production ----Manution6 ----- Domestic ----(Thou- Per Cow4 Beginning Fed to Total Whole- for Fluid facturing (Fluid Milk Total sale Market Grade sands) (Pounds) Stocks5 Imports Humans Use in Lbs.) Total4 Supply Exports5 Calves
9,156 9,206 9,114 9,139 9,083 9,010 9,040
17,772 18,202 18,158 18,608 18,761 18,958 19,577
162,716 167,559 165,497 170,063 170,394 170,805 176,989
5,300 6,186 7,010 7,259 9,891 8,333 7,154
4,700 4,445 5,716 5,103 5,040 5,278 4,600
172,716 178,190 178,223 182,425 185,325 184,416 188,743
1,303 1,109 1,107 1,036 959 964 956
163,316 166,256 164,123 168,944 169,276 169,699
165,728 167,363 165,159 169,903 170,240 170,655
14.37 12.33 14.98 12.10 12.52 16.04 15.15
14.43 12.38 14.99 12.10 12.53 16.04 15.16
13.78 10.54 14.78 10.92 11.77 15.41 14.47
213 210 208 206
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Average number on farms during year including dry cows, excluding heifers not yet fresh. 4 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 5 Government and commercial. 6 Product pounds of commercial sales and on farm consumption. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA) 1
174
MILK Utiliz ation of Milk in the United States
In Millions of Pounds (Milk Equivalent) Bulk Condensed
Year
Butter from Whey Creamery Cream Butter2
Cottage Cheese Cheese3 (Creamed)
5,094 5,392 5,538 5,612 5,791
56,827 60,154 62,257 61,804 64,504
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
26,211 28,657 28,059 27,557 30,250
Canned Milk4
Unsweetened
Sweetened
Dry Whole Milk Products
1,017 1,037 965 991 593 595
222 216 180 170 77 76
186 171 163 163 56 75
1,050 868 815 303 47 39
------ Whole Milk ------
NA NA NA NA NA
Ice Cream5
Other Frozen Dairy Products
2,151 2,305 2,218 2,220 2,320
14,301 14,370 14,447 14,395 14,373
Other Manu- --- Used on Farms --factured FarmPor- Churned ducts6 Butter Total
697 682 700 701 706
244 219 196 170 160 151
1,406 1,328 1,303 1,181 1,119 1,114
Preliminary. 2 Excludes whey butter. 3 American and other. 4 I ncludes evaporated and sweetened condensed. 5 Milk equivalent of butter and condensed milk used in ice cream. 6 Whole milk equivalent of dry cream, malted milk powder, part-skim milk, dry or concentrated ice cream mix, dehydrated butterfat and other miscellaneous products using milkfat. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA) 1
Milk-Feed Price Ratio1 in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
In Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2.75 4.09 3.07 3.08 3.03 2.40 2.70 3.45
2.77 3.67 2.94 3.03 3.00 2.35 2.60 3.50
2.73 3.57 2.91 3.24 2.89 2.27 2.80 3.38
2.70 2.97 2.84 3.29 2.81 2.25 3.11 3.21
2.58 2.89 2.63 3.41 2.64 2.19 3.15 2.95
2.89 3.17 2.96 3.74 2.54 2.21 3.12 2.89
3.00 3.61 3.29 3.60 2.34 2.60 2.96 2.93
3.60 3.85 3.38 3.62 2.27 2.89 2.93 3.06
3.98 4.09 3.34 3.75 2.30 3.16 3.22 3.26
4.18 3.96 3.12 3.55 2.46 3.23 3.27 3.38
4.22 3.87 3.03 3.29 2.44 3.05 3.57 3.46
4.27 3.24 3.04 2.99 2.44 2.89 3.67 3.27
3.31 3.58 3.05 3.38 2.60 2.62 3.09 3.23
1 Pounds of 16% protein mixed dairy feed equal in value to one pound of whole milk. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Milk Production1 in the United States Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
13,628 14,263 13,998 14,304 14,584 14,402 14,614
12,607 13,606 12,894 13,229 13,441 13,595 13,530
14,270 14,761 14,375 14,864 15,044 14,762 15,206
13,938 14,390 14,078 14,580 14,634 14,519 15,047
14,458 14,791 14,646 15,118 15,003 15,012 15,697
13,633 14,008 13,957 14,317 14,328 14,293 15,087
13,444 14,117 13,877 14,196 14,263 14,405 14,978
13,357 13,798 13,564 14,128 14,015 14,215 14,896
12,970 13,246 13,129 13,467 13,468 13,619 14,260
13,412 13,708 13,611 13,866 13,898 14,070 14,611
13,140 13,212 13,305 13,478 13,470 13,610 14,205
13,854 13,758 13,902 14,211 14,164 14,303 14,858
162,711 167,658 165,332 170,063 170,394 170,805 176,989
Excludes milk sucked by calves.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by U.S. Farmers for All Milk (Sold to Plants) In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds (Cwt.) Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
17.40 12.00 13.20 13.40 11.70 13.20 15.90
15.50 11.80 13.00 13.10 11.40 13.60 15.50
15.00 11.90 13.90 12.70 11.00 15.40 15.60
12.60 11.90 14.60 12.50 11.00 18.10 15.20
12.70 12.00 15.50 12.10 11.00 19.30 14.80
13.10 12.30 16.20 11.50 11.00 18.20 14.50
13.80 12.60 16.20 11.10 12.10 16.10 14.80
15.10 12.50 16.50 11.30 13.30 14.90 14.80
15.70 12.90 17.10 11.60 14.50 15.50 15.30
14.90 12.50 15.60 12.10 15.00 15.60 15.50
14.40 12.60 14.40 11.90 14.40 16.20 15.10
12.20 13.00 13.50 11.90 13.80 16.40 14.80
14.37 12.33 14.98 12.10 12.52 16.04 15.15
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Farm Price of Milk Eligible for Fluid Market Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds (Cwt.)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
17.50 12.00 13.20 13.40 11.80 13.20 15.90
15.60 11.90 13.10 13.10 11.40 13.60 15.50
15.10 12.00 13.90 12.70 11.00 15.40 15.60
12.60 11.90 14.60 12.50 11.00 18.10 15.20
12.80 12.10 15.50 12.10 11.00 19.30 14.80
13.20 12.30 16.20 11.50 11.00 18.20 14.50
13.90 12.60 16.20 11.10 12.10 16.10 14.90
15.00 12.50 16.50 11.30 13.30 14.90 14.80
15.70 13.00 17.10 11.60 14.50 15.50 15.30
15.00 12.60 15.60 12.10 15.00 15.60 15.50
14.50 12.60 14.50 11.90 14.40 16.20 15.10
12.30 13.10 13.50 11.90 13.80 16.40 14.80
14.43 12.38 14.99 12.10 12.53 16.04 15.16
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
175
Molasses Molasses is a dark-brown, heavy liquid obtained as a by-product of sugar processing. Sugarcane accounts for about 80% of molasses production, while sugar beets account for about 20% of production. In the sugar refining process, blackstrap molasses is produced by the third and final separation process. Blackstrap molasses is used worldwide mostly as a feed supplement for livestock. Other uses for molasses include cooking or baking and the production of alcohol. Molasses, for example, is a key ingredient in pumpernickel bread. Molasses is also a key ingredient in some brands of rum. Molasses was a very popular sweetener during the American Colonial days through World War I because it was cheaper than sugar. Prices – The price of molasses rose in 2004 (latest data available) due to the sharp rally in sugar prices during the year. World sugar futures prices at the New York Board of Trade rose from a 2-1/2 year low of 5.27 cents per pound in February 2004 to a 3-year high of 9.37 cents per pound in
October 2004. Molasses and sugar prices have shown a fairly high correlation of 0.64 over the past 3 decades because molasses is a by-product of sugar production. The wholesale price of blackstrap molasses (cane) at Orleans averaged $58.67 per ton in 2004 (through August), up +1.7% from $57.71 per ton in 2003. Supply –The production of molasses is highly correlated with the production of sugar, and by extension, sugarcane and sugar beets. World production of sugarcane in 2002-03 rose +1.3% yr/yr to 1.288 billion metric tons. The world’s largest producers of sugarcane are Brazil with 28% of world production in 2002-03, followed by India with 22% of world production. US production of sugarcane amounts to 2.5% of world production. World production of sugar beets in 200203 rose +7.5% yr/yr to 246.5 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of sugar beets are France with 14% of world production in 2002-03, Germany with 11%, and the US with 10%.
World Production of Sugarcane, by Selected Countries Crop Year
Australia
Brazil
China
Cuba
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32
37,438 35,889 38,463 39,531 38,534 38,165 31,228 32,260
303,699 325,929 337,195 345,255 333,848 327,705 345,942 360,556
70,279 71,260 83,012 87,204 78,108 69,299 77,966 82,278
36,000 41,300 38,900 32,800 34,000 36,400 32,100 32,100
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
India Indonesia
271,230 282,900 277,250 262,090 295,730 299,230 299,210 279,000
31,427 29,486 27,764 27,180 24,000 23,900 25,185 23,400
Mexico
Pakistan
Philippines
South Africa
Thailand
United States
World Total
42,562 43,352 45,220 48,895 46,880 44,150 47,275 46,000
47,168 45,230 41,998 53,104 55,191 46,333 43,606 48,042
26,000 27,000 26,813 26,287 23,780 24,491 24,962 25,835
16,714 20,951 22,155 22,930 21,223 23,876 21,157 22,349
50,597 58,977 56,394 50,332 50,332 59,436 60,013 62,350
27,938 26,727 28,751 31,486 32,023 32,762 31,377 32,597
1,172,160 1,226,666 1,253,052 1,259,659 1,266,330 1,255,801 1,271,484 1,288,403
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
World Production of Sugarbeet, by Selected Countries Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons
BelgiumLuxembourg
China
France
Germany
Italy
Poland
Russia
Spain
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
6,051 6,125 6,545 5,366 7,112 5,311 5,614 5,898
13,984 16,726 14,970 14,466 8,639 8,073 10,889 11,562
30,571 31,211 34,372 31,156 32,919 31,121 26,841 33,331
26,077 26,064 25,769 26,787 27,578 27,870 24,730 26,786
13,188 12,250 13,803 13,382 14,505 11,569 11,107 11,500
13,309 17,846 15,886 15,171 12,564 13,134 11,364 11,652
19,072 16,166 13,880 10,798 15,227 14,054 14,556 15,500
7,438 8,236 8,530 8,866 8,162 7,930 6,775 7,877
11,171 14,543 18,553 22,283 16,854 18,821 12,633 13,000
29,650 23,009 17,663 15,523 14,064 13,199 15,575 14,400
8,431 10,420 11,084 10,002 10,584 9,079 8,335 9,435
25,460 24,204 27,112 29,483 30,318 29,521 23,373 24,993
264,852 265,925 268,248 263,165 260,331 244,819 229,292 246,476
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
U.S. Annual Average Prices of Molasses, by Types (F.O.B. Tank Car or Truck)
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 20051
---------------------------------------------------------------------- Blackstrap --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- Beet Molasses ------------Red Montana, River Wyoming New South Upper California Valley4 & Nebraska Orleans Florida Baltimore Mississippi Savannah Ports3 Houston
46.35 33.77 44.64 67.97 64.57 57.67 58.67
59.92 49.15 58.34 76.79 74.23 66.72 66.06 70.00
63.37 51.06 61.73 90.12 87.02 81.11
78.00 65.50 71.66 85.45 84.01 78.78
68.75 56.63 65.42 83.30 87.50 81.18
Preliminary. 2 To convert dollars per short ton to cents per gallon divide by 171. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
1
176
In Dollars Per Short Ton2
69.30 58.32 71.78 92.82 84.81 78.61
3
48.85 36.30 48.94 72.33 68.76 62.92 69.43 95.88
Los Angeles and Stockton.
------------------------4
North Dakota and Minnesota.
-------------------------
MOLASSES
-----
USD Per Ton Blackstrap, New York (Oct. 1925 - Dec. 1967) Blackstrap, New Orleans (Jan. 1968 - date)
Salient Statistics of Molasses3 in the United States
In Metric Tons
-------------------------------------- Production --------------------------------------
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
------------------------ Mainland -----------------------Refiners Mainland BlackPuerto Hawaii Hills4 strap B eet Rico
In Shipments From Hawaii
-------------- Inedible Imports From -------------Total Dominican Imports Brazil Republic Mexico
180,884 824,453 114,000 1,200,000 18,531 151,172 1,556,640 146,000 886,826 114,000 1,040,000 16,156 146,000 1,048,726 NA NA NA NA NA 900,000 100,000 1,200,000 100,000 1,583,755 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Mainland Exports5
Production of Edible Total Molasses (1,000 U.S. Supply Gallons)
0 121,320 197,753 277,098 3,459,167 0 132,983 172,177 274,868 2,960,684 NA NA 300,000 3,583,755 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1,500 1,500 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Feed and industrial molasses. 4 I ncludes high-test molasses from frozen cane. 5 Excluding exports from Hawaii and Puerto Rico. NA = Not available. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
1
Wholesale Price of Blackstrap Molasses (Cane) at New Orleans Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Dollars Per Short Ton
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
80.00 60.00 57.50 37.50 35.25 57.50 72.50 60.00 53.75 NQ
80.00 60.00 55.63 36.25 36.11 57.50 70.60 60.00 53.75 NQ
80.00 59.00 51.00 35.00 37.50 59.38 67.50 60.00 53.75 NQ
78.00 56.56 50.00 34.38 37.50 60.25 67.50 58.75 53.75 NQ
77.50 56.88 50.00 32.50 37.50 63.75 64.40 57.50 54.69 NQ
77.50 60.31 46.00 32.50 37.12 66.25 62.50 57.50 66.00 NQ
77.50 57.50 45.00 32.50 42.75 70.75 63.50 57.50 NQ NQ
77.50 57.50 45.00 32.50 46.25 73.75 62.50 57.50 75.00 NQ
75.00 57.50 45.00 32.50 40.35 76.25 62.50 57.50 NQ NQ
70.00 57.50 37.50 32.50 57.50 77.50 62.50 56.25 NQ NQ
65.63 57.50 37.50 33.75 57.50 77.50 60.00 56.25 NQ NQ
60.75 57.50 37.50 33.75 57.50 75.00 60.00 53.75 NQ NQ
74.88 58.14 46.35 33.80 43.57 67.95 64.67 57.71 58.67 NQ
Preliminary.
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
177
Molybdenum Molybdenum (symbol Mo) is a silvery-white, hard, malleable, metallic element. Molybdenum melts at about 2610 degrees Celsius and boils at about 4640 degrees Celsius. Swedish chemist Carl Wilhelm Scheele discovered molybdenum in 1778. Molybdenum occurs in nature in the form of molybdenite and wulfenite. Contributing to the growth of plants, it is an important trace element in soils. Approximately 70% of the world supply of molybdenum is obtained as a by-product of copper mining. Molybdenum is chiefly used as an alloy to strengthen steel and resist corrosion. It is used for structural work, aircraft parts, and forged automobile parts because it withstands high temperatures and pressures and adds strength. Other uses include lubricants, a refractory metal in chemical applications, electron tubing, and as a catalyst. Prices – The average monthly US merchant price of molybdic oxide in 2005 rallied sharply by +109.6% yr/yr to a record high of $32.70 per pound. That was almost 14 times the decade low of $2.37 seen in 2001. Supply – World production of molybdenum in 2004 rose by +8.5% yr/yr to 141,000 metric tons, continuing the recovery from the 9-year low of 121,000 metric tons seen in 2002.
World Mine Production of Molybdenum Year
In Metric Tons (Contained Molybdenum)
Armenia
Canada3
Chile
China
Iran
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Mongolia
Peru
Russia
United States
Uzbekisten
World Total
2,300 2,800 3,820 2,943 2,884 2,763 2,950
8,469 6,250 7,457 8,556 7,953 8,887 5,681
25,297 27,309 33,639 33,492 29,467 33,375 41,483
30,000 29,700 28,800 28,200 29,300 31,000 29,000
1,400 1,600 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,400 1,500
100 155 215 225 230 230 230
5,949 7,961 6,886 5,518 3,428 3,524 3,730
2,000 1,910 1,335 1,514 1,590 1,793 1,650
4,344 5,470 7,193 9,499 8,613 9,561 9,600
2,000 2,400 2,400 2,600 2,900 2,900 2,900
53,343 42,400 40,900 37,600 32,300 33,500 41,500
500 500 500 500 500 500 500
136,000 129,000 135,000 132,000 121,000 130,000 141,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
The world’s largest producers of molybdenum are the US with 29% of world production in 2004, Chili also with 29%, and China with 21%. US production of molybdenum concentrate in 2004 rose +25.0% yr/yr to 42,000 metric tons, continuing the recovery from the 20-year low of 32,000 metric tons posted in 2002. US production of molybdenum primary products in 2004 rose +105.9% to 24,300 metric tons, with 23,400 metric tons of that production in molybdic oxide and 868 metric tons in molybdenum metal powder. Demand – US consumption of molybdenum concentrate in 2004 rose sharply by +40.7% yr/yr to 38,700 metric tons, continuing to recover from the 9-year low of 21,200 metric tons posted in 2002. US consumption of molybdenum concentrate has more than doubled over the last 10 years. US consumption of molybdenum primary products rose by +6.1% yr/yr in 2004 to 17,400 metric tons, continuing to recover from the 16-year low of 15,300 posted in 2002. Trade – US imports of molybdenum concentrate for consumption in 2004 rose +69.2% yr/yr to 8,780 metric tons, continuing to recover from the 9-year low of 4,710 metric tons posted in 2002.
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Shipments.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Molybdenum in the United States
In Metric Tons (Contained Molybdenum) ---------------------------------------- Primary Products4 -----------------------------------------
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
--------------------------------------- Concentrate --------------------------------------- -------------- Net Production -------------- ----- Shipments ----Price To Oxide for Moly----------- Shipments ----------Imports Total Producer bolic Average Domestic Exports Value F or Con- For Con- Stocks, Pro- (Includes (Groos Value DestGrand Molybolic Metal Con- Stocks, duction Exports) Million $ Exports sumption sumption Dec. 313 Total Oxide5 Powder $ / Kg.6 inations Weight) sumption Dec. 31
53,300 42,400 40,900 37,600 32,300 33,500 41,500
52,100 200.0 42,800 251.0 40,400 210.0 37,000 192.0 32,300 232.0 33,600 324.0 42,000 1,420.0
----------------------
35,900 34,500 33,800 33,300 21,200 27,500 38,700
6,570 6,390 6,120 6,010 4,710 5,190 8,780
6,270 4,580 4,030 4,210 3,870 2,520 2,610
33,900 19,200 19,700 15,700 10,500 11,800 24,300
31,600 2,270 17,400 1,880 17,500 2,190 14,900 771 10,000 513 11,000 760 23,400 868
5.90 5.90 5.64 5.20 8.27 11.65 29.67
38,000 39,000 34,600 32,600 27,500 30,100 39,300
1,100 1,130 1,190 940 1,670 2,580 5,280
18,800 18,700 18,300 15,800 15,300 16,400 17,400
7,780 5,340 5,360 5,600 4,300 2,760 2,840
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 At mines & at plants making molybdenum products. 4 Comprises ferromolybdenum, molybdic oxide, & molybdenum salts & metal. 5 I ncludes molybdic oxide briquets, molybdic acid, molybdenum trioxide, all other. 6 U.S. producer price per kilogram of molybdenum oxide contained in technical-grade molybdic oxide. W = Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
US Merchant Price of Molybdic Oxide Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3.53 2.86 2.38 2.33 3.63 7.63 33.00
2.73 3.55 2.38 2.33 3.74 8.15 30.15
2.73 3.40 2.38 2.33 4.62 8.93 33.59
2.73 2.55 2.38 2.75 5.20 13.11 34.79
2.73 2.55 2.38 2.99 5.20 14.00 36.41
2.73 2.55 2.38 6.93 5.77 15.03 38.32
2.73 2.55 2.38 5.32 5.86 15.75 32.79
2.73 2.64 2.38 4.75 5.60 16.70 30.00
2.73 2.70 2.38 4.73 5.84 18.27 31.93
2.73 2.70 2.40 4.70 6.25 19.50 32.33
2.73 2.70 2.33 3.82 6.25 22.66 30.33
2.73 2.39 2.33 3.48 6.25 27.50 28.72
2.79 2.74 2.37 3.87 5.35 15.60 32.70
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
178
In Dollars Per Pound
Jan.
Nickel 1.400 million metric tons. That is about double the production seen in 1970. The world’s largest mine producers of nickel in 2003 were Russia (with 23% of world production), Australia (15%), Canada (12%), Indonesia (10%), and New Caledonia (8%). In 2003, US secondary nickel production fell –12.0% to 93,460 metric tons, down from the record high of 106,260 metric tons in 2002. Demand – US consumption of nickel in 2003 fell –8.6% to 180,000 metric tons, down from last year’s record high of 197,000 metric tons. The primary US nickel consumption use is for stainless and heat-resisting steels, which accounted for 69% of US consumption in 2003. Other consumption uses were nickel alloys (8.1%), super alloys (7.0%), electro-plating anodes (6.3%), copper base alloys (2.9%), alloy steels (1.9%), chemicals (1.3%), and cast irons (0.3%). Trade – The US relied on imports for 48% of its nickel consumption in 2003, down from 56% in 2001. US imports of primary and secondary nickel in 2003 rose +4.9% to 136,500 metric tons, up from last year’s 10-year low of 130,110 metric tons. US exports of primary and secondary nickel in 2003 rose 16.8% to 53,630 metric tons, which was still below the record high of 58,050 metric tons posted in 2000.
Nickel (symbol Ni) is a hard, malleable, ductile metal that has a silvery tinge that can take on a high polish. Nickel is somewhat ferromagnetic and is a fair conductor of heat and electricity. Nickel is primarily used in the production of stainless steel and other corrosion-resistant alloys. Nickel is used in coins to replace silver, in rechargeable batteries, and in electronic circuitry. Nickel plating techniques, like electro-less coating or single-slurry coating, are employed in such applications as turbine blades, helicopter rotors, extrusion dies, and rolled steel strip. Nickel futures and options trade at the London Metal Exchange (LME). The nickel futures contract calls for the delivery of 6 metric tons of primary nickel with at least 99.80% purity in the form of full plate, cut cathodes, pellets or briquettes. The contract is priced in terms of US dollars per metric ton. Prices – Nickel prices in 2005 opened the year around $14,000 per metric ton and then rallied to a high of about $17,800 in May. Prices moved lower to about $11,500 in October but then rallied later in the year to around $14,000. Prices continued to rally into early 2006. Strong demand pushed nickel prices higher in 2005. Supply – World mine production of nickel in 2003, the latest reporting year for the data series, rose +3.7% yr/yr to
World Mine Production of Nickel Year
Australia3 Botswana
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
143,513 119,226 166,500 205,000 207,800 210,000 178,000
1
Preliminary.
2
21,700 33,733 38,420 26,714 28,600 32,740 33,000
Estimate.
3
In Metric Tons (Contained Nickel)
Brazil
Canada
China
Dominican Republic
36,764 41,522 45,317 47,097 45,029 45,000 45,200
208,201 186,236 190,793 194,058 189,297 162,756 187,000
48,700 49,500 50,300 51,500 53,700 60,000 64,000
40,311 39,997 39,943 39,120 38,859 45,400 47,000
Year
56 64 63 58 52 52 50
16,000 68,400 4,290 63,100 71,000 83,900 101,500 106,260 93,460
9,290 9,590 8,100 7,700 7,590 3,920 3,460
654 6,530 908 7,470 495 10,500 198 9,940 886 7,190 427 5,280 460 5,160
15,900 16,400 15,400 15,700 12,500 12,300 11,400
Average Price of Nickel1 in the United States
1
125,319 110,062 128,789 117,554 99,650 111,895 118,000
Russia
South Africa
World Total
23,713 20,689 17,388 27,359 26,532 21,150 17,000
290,000 300,000 315,000 325,000 310,000 315,000 315,000
36,679 36,202 36,616 36,443 38,546 40,842 39,900
1,180,000 1,160,000 1,290,000 1,350,000 1,350,000 1,400,000 1,400,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Metric Tons (Contained Nickel)
19,400 105,000 17,500 93,000 15,200 102,000 18,200 108,000 17,900 121,000 14,200 135,000 14,600 124,000
Exclusive of scrap. 2 Preliminary. 3 Estimate. 4 Smelter & refinery. data. NA = Not avaliable. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
74,063 89,111 98,200 102,000 123,000 143,000 133,000
Phillippines
Net ----------------------------- Nickel Consumed1, By Uses ---------------------------------Import Stocks, Stainless Reliance ------ Dec. 31 -----& Heat as a % of Avg. Primary & Apparent At Con- At ProCopper ElectroReApparent --- Production --Price Secon- Alloy Cast Base plating Nickel sisting Super Chemducer Secondary Nickel LME Con- sumers' Condary5 Sheets Irons Alloys Anodes Alloys Steels Alloys icals sumption Plants Plants Exports Imports $/Lb. sumption Plant4
1
Year
16,985 16,050 19,535 20,830 22,670 21,410 21,700
Content of nickel sulfate and concentrates.
Salient Statistics of Nickel in the United States
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022 20033
New Greece Indonesia Caledonia
5
19,000 18,600 18,900 19,400 18,400 12,600 12,600
3,720 1,970 1,580 991 1,630 1,280 2,400
191,000 186,000 190,000 189,000 188,000 197,000 180,000
16,070 15,960 10,050 14,260 13,910 13,670 8,890
12,600 13,100 12,700 12,300 12,600 6,150 8,040
From purchased scrap (ferrous & nonferrous).
56,600 43,540 38,840 58,050 57,050 45,920 53,630
158,000 156,500 148,480 166,700 144,760 130,110 136,500
3.14 2.10 2.73 3.92 2.70 3.07 4.37
W = Withheld proprietary
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
336.00 261.00 365.17 720.75 685.93
328.00 261.00 406.25 714.31 723.02
309.00 261.00 397.38 650.28 763.44
289.00 261.00 377.72 615.29 761.75
332.00 288.00 395.63 532.52 804.52
324.00 320.00 424.56 638.94 779.54
284.00 331.00 427.68 705.77 700.08
269.00 332.00 454.67 646.11 709.31
244.00 322.00 482.62 630.61 684.33
237.00 310.00 530.81 679.95 601.56
248.00 342.00 574.10 662.30 584.44
261.00 351.00 665.26 645.37 644.94
288.42 303.33 458.49 653.52 703.57
Plating material, briquettes.
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
179
Oats Oats are seeds or grains of a genus of plants that thrive in cool, moist climates. There are about 25 species of oats that grow worldwide in the cooler temperate regions. The oldest known cultivated oats were found inside caves in Switzerland and are believed to be from the Bronze Age. Oats are usually sown in early spring and harvested in mid to late summer, but in southern regions of the northern hemisphere, they may be sown in the fall. Oats are used in many processed foods such as flour, livestock feed, and furfural, a chemical used as a solvent in various refining industries. The oat crop year begins in June and ends in May. Oat futures and options are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). Prices – Oat prices on the CBOT weekly nearest futures chart started the year at $1.70 per bushel, showed weakness through April to post a low of $1.27, rallied into the summer to hit a high of $1.83, sank again to a low of $1.40 in August and then recovered through the remainder of the year to a high of $2.21 in mid-December. Oat futures closed 2005 lower at $1.95. Regarding cash prices, the average monthly price received by farmers for oats in the US in the first 7 months of the 2005-06 marketing year (i.e., June to December 2005) fell +5.6% yr/yr to $1.64 per bushel. Supply – World oat production in 2004-05 (latest data available) fell –2.3% yr/yr to 26.060 million metric tons, which was only mildly above the record low of 24.000 million metric tons posted in 1999-00. World oat production in the past decade has dropped very sharply from levels above 40 million metric tons in the 1960s through the 1980s. The
World Production of Oats Year
US oat production in the 2005-06 marketing year fell by –0.6% yr/yr to 115.002 million bushels, which was a new record low. US oat production in the past decade has fallen sharply from levels mostly above 1 billion bushels seen from the early 1900s through the 1960s. US farmers harvested only 1.823 million acres of oats in 2005-06, which was up +2.0% from the previous year’s record low but still far below the levels above 30 million acres seen from the early 1900s through the 1950s. The oat yield in 2004-05 was down – 2.5% to 63.1 bushels per acre, which was below the record of 65.0 bushels seen in 2003-04. Oat stocks in the US as of September 1, 2005 were 113.503 million bushels, which was down from the year-earlier level of 115.758 million bushels. The largest US oat-producing states are the northern states of North Dakota (with 14.0% of US production in 2005), South Dakota (12.5%), and Wisconsin (12.1%), and Minnesota (11.3%). Demand – US usage of oats in 2005-06 fell –3.8% yr/yr to 202.0 million bushels. Based on the last complete set of data in 2001, feed and residual accounts for 66% of oat usage, 27% for food, alcohol and residual, 6% for feed, and 1% for exports. Trade – US exports of oats were nominal at only 3.0 million bushels in 2005-06. US imports of oats in 2005-06 fell –14.8% yr/yr to a 10-year low of 75.0 million bushels.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Australia
Belarus
Brazil
Canada
China
EU-25
Norway
Turkey
Ukraine
United States
Russia
World Total
310 517 383 555 645 645 500 348 508 350
1,653 1,634 1,798 1,118 1,050 1,434 957 2,018 1,321 1,100
707 822 501 368 495 530 575 500 770 600
214 286 250 250 330 277 390 413 411 400
4,361 3,485 3,958 3,641 3,389 2,691 2,911 3,691 3,683 3,350
600 400 650 600 600 600 600 600 600 600
6,886 6,665 6,147 8,117 8,383 8,091 9,280 8,623 8,754 7,586
385 360 387 356 397 333 400 400 400 400
275 280 310 290 314 265 290 285 290 290
730 1,062 778 760 881 1,116 943 925 1,000 800
2,224 2,428 2,406 2,114 2,165 1,707 1,684 2,096 1,679 1,667
8,300 9,400 4,600 4,400 6,000 7,700 5,700 5,200 4,950 4,600
30,641 31,035 25,691 24,110 25,977 27,036 25,720 26,639 25,948 23,337
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
world’s largest oat producers are the European Union with 34% of world production in 2004-05, the former USSR with 21%, Canada with 14%, the US with 7%, and Australia with 4%.
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Official Oats Crop Production Reports in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1
July 1
248,151 181,508 154,968 182,672 183,201 ----
Preliminary.
180
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
In Thousands of Bushels
Oct. 1
D e c. 1
Final
Year
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
247,753 247,753 229,717 186,167 186,167 ---157,663 ------187,127 ------177,211 ------162,096 -------
-------------------
229,008 162,027 153,245 167,246 165,981 146,218
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
151,380 132,150 147,584 147,895 121,860 131,314
152,745 135,445 142,580 151,345 127,950 127,819
-------------------
-------------------
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
D e c. 1
Final
---- 149,545 ---- 117,024 ---- 116,002 ---- 144,383 ---- 115,695 ---- 114,878
OATS Oat Stocks in the United States
In Thousands of Bushels
-------------------------- On Farms -------------------------- -------------------------- Off Farms -------------------------- ------------------------- Total Stocks ------------------------Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
57,350 56,200 58,800 61,700 53,300 55,800 40,200 35,000 45,600 43,500
32,600 33,100 34,500 40,700 36,000 32,050 28,650 20,600 27,500 25,350
93,400 107,950 110,300 97,300 101,200 74,800 70,500 82,100 74,300 71,700
80,650 83,200 81,500 79,800 86,900 58,100 52,500 64,400 60,400 60,100
55,268 39,362 52,418 50,850 48,500 54,128 53,158 47,879 49,414 38,946
33,708 33,576 39,498 40,678 40,031 40,677 34,552 29,233 37,348 32,592
38,716 48,972 51,502 51,151 49,177 41,592 41,212 49,637 41,458 41,803
45,218 61,051 61,835 53,872 57,237 56,117 51,284 54,900 44,513 35,635
112,618 95,562 111,218 112,550 101,800 109,928 93,358 82,879 95,014 82,446
66,308 66,676 73,998 81,378 76,031 72,727 63,202 49,833 64,848 57,942
132,116 156,922 161,802 148,451 150,377 116,392 111,712 131,737 115,758 113,503
125,868 144,251 143,335 133,672 144,137 114,217 103,784 119,300 104,913 95,735
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Supply and Utiliz ationof Oats in the United States
In Millions of Bushels
Findley F ood, Loan Target Total Ending Farm ProTotal Feed & Alcohol & Yield Per Planted Harvested Rate Price Use Stocks Price Acre duction Imports Supply Residual Industrial Seed Exports ----- 1,000 acres ----- (Bushels) -------------------------------------------- In Millions of Bushels -------------------------------------------- ----- Dollars Per Bushel ----------- Acreage -------
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
4,638 5,068 4,892 4,668 4,473 4,403 4,995 4,597 4,085 4,246
Preliminary.
2
2,655 2,813 2,755 2,445 2,325 1,905 2,058 2,220 1,787 1,823
Forecast.
57.7 59.5 60.2 59.6 64.2 61.4 56.4 65.0 64.7 58.0
153.2 167.2 166.0 145.6 149.5 117.0 116.0 144.4 115.7 114.9
NA = Not available.
97.5 98.4 108.0 99.0 106.0 96.0 95.0 90.0 88.0 75.0
317.1 332.3 347.7 326.0 332.0 286.0 274.0 284.0 268.0 248.0
171.7 184.6 195.6 180.0 189.0 148.0 150.0 144.0 134.0 120.0
Illinois
Iowa
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
4,620 5,550 3,920 4,260 4,015 3,200 3,285 4,450 2,450 3,160
12,920 16,790 10,915 11,375 12,060 9,100 13,300 10,790 10,080 9,875
1
Preliminary.
Michigan Minnesota Nebraska New York
3,600 4,880 4,800 4,875 4,800 3,520 4,160 5,250 4,420 4,575
15,120 17,400 19,530 17,700 22,320 12,600 14,840 18,815 13,300 12,710
13.1 12.6 12.0 11.2 11.0 13.0
2.5 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0
250.4 258.3 266.3 250.0 259.0 223.0 224.0 219.0 210.0 197.0
66.7 1.96 74.0 1.60 81.4 1.10 76.0 1.12 73.0 1.10 63.0 1.59 50.0 1.81 65.0 1.48 58.0 1.48 51.0 1.50-1.60
1.03 1.11 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.21 1.35 1.35 1.33 1.33
NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.40 1.40 1.44 1.44
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of Oats in the United States, by States Year
63.0 59.0 57.0 56.8 57.0 59.0
7,455 5,850 5,320 4,650 1,890 3,660 2,365 6,570 3,400 4,380
3,850 5,850 6,510 4,760 3,900 5,520 4,160 4,410 3,250 4,050
In Thousands of Bushels North Dakota
Ohio
Pennslyvania
South Dakota
19,000 18,700 25,200 16,830 19,845 14,880 12,600 21,240 14,080 14,160
5,130 6,660 6,500 7,000 6,840 6,205 3,355 3,960 3,150 3,600
7,560 8,990 8,480 7,975 8,265 7,475 7,015 6,490 6,050 6,050
21,600 14,850 20,100 12,800 13,420 7,800 5,400 15,640 13,940 12,960
Texas Wisconsin
3,400 6,760 6,890 4,840 4,300 7,200 6,160 6,300 6,400 4,730
17,400 20,160 18,300 18,600 19,040 12,480 15,000 15,410 13,650 13,760
Total
153,245 167,246 165,981 146,218 149,165 117,024 116,002 144,383 115,695 114,878
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Cash Price of No. 2 Heavy White Oats in Toledo
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
NQ 2.12 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.45 1.79 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.34 1.84 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.19 1.80 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.02 1.77 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
1.96 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
1.96 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
1.99 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.16 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.26 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.12 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.08 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
2.14 1.86 NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
1
Preliminary.
NQ = No quotes.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
181
OATS
Volume of Trading in Oats Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
61,451 34,238 21,150 23,747 27,073 26,377 41,516 26,149 33,743 26,439
52,079 51,608 51,247 35,706 43,332 38,040 46,435 31,892 34,605 35,921
34,608 39,607 25,551 43,671 29,707 24,903 30,662 27,766 55,216 36,808
77,395 41,988 65,381 44,974 31,653 41,482 51,889 26,022 49,746 35,199
47,161 27,028 23,490 22,399 38,647 20,516 32,386 20,442 38,951 24,696
34,498 29,632 55,376 40,722 50,461 41,926 39,229 24,113 35,356 33,748
38,960 25,473 29,870 35,812 30,885 50,440 35,217 23,230 25,451 28,353
33,316 26,486 42,156 27,928 42,814 22,883 29,647 21,562 31,023 26,134
30,801 21,241 27,131 17,893 21,846 31,252 23,968 26,658 32,322 17,708
37,579 42,630 31,426 16,155 21,476 50,580 32,847 33,621 25,443 27,080
37,856 38,187 51,172 42,029 48,890 53,578 35,412 30,273 33,942 32,687
16,154 19,214 18,924 20,370 15,406 38,877 15,932 27,170 20,650 26,766
501,858 397,332 442,874 371,406 402,190 440,854 415,140 318,898 416,448 351,539
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Average Open Interest of Oats in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
13,253 8,088 12,782 17,126 15,343 14,093 12,640 6,929 6,284 7,691
14,095 9,650 15,368 17,019 17,521 15,060 13,137 6,715 6,314 8,482
14,231 12,649 16,553 16,677 17,719 14,873 11,833 5,945 10,018 7,346
14,497 11,024 17,748 15,398 18,183 14,962 10,976 6,135 12,988 8,110
13,897 9,830 17,441 13,491 176,686 14,875 9,047 5,833 11,903 7,746
11,697 9,395 16,437 12,705 16,178 13,695 10,381 5,640 11,339 7,686
11,336 8,131 14,255 11,927 15,550 11,861 10,230 5,811 10,293 7,779
11,803 8,606 15,052 11,670 15,225 11,707 10,970 5,958 9,153 6,721
11,457 8,618 14,771 9,802 13,176 10,059 9,881 6,261 6,669 5,847
11,918 10,953 16,263 10,638 13,985 12,111 9,550 6,194 7,010 6,914
11,150 11,816 18,466 12,754 14,377 14,453 9,134 6,268 7,753 7,565
8,550 10,964 17,048 12,360 14,119 12,142 6,008 5,122 6,724 9,385
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
182
In Contracts
Jan.
OATS
-----
---
Cents Per Bushel No. 3 White, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - Dec. 1947) No. 2 White, Chicago (Jan. 1948 - Nov. 1948) No. 1 White, Heavy, Chicago (Dec. 1948 - Dec. 1974) No. 2 White, Heavy, Chicago (Jan. 1975 - Aug. 1999) No. 2 Milling, Minneapolis (Jan. 1975 to date)
Average Cash Price of No. 2 Heavy White Oats in Minneapolis
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
2.11 1.89 1.52 1.34 .73 .83 1.40 1.05 1.04 .99
2.48 1.76 1.42 1.25 .72 .95 1.24 NQ .96 1.20
2.36 1.80 1.21 1.20 .69 1.08 1.23 .98 .99 1.12
2.08 1.78 1.30 1.17 .68 1.04 1.36 1.01 1.11 1.09
2.06 1.75 1.29 1.20 .70 1.29 1.36 1.00 1.01 1.16
1.87 1.65 1.32 1.20 .72 1.41 1.33 .99 1.04 1.16
1.86 1.71 1.31 1.28 .70 1.48 1.36 1.04 1.13 1.37
1.89 1.68 1.33 1.21 .70 1.41 1.44 .99 1.18
1.94 1.59 1.26 1.19 .75 1.47 1.28 1.14 1.15
1.99 1.65 1.35 1.34 .77 1.51 1.28 1.08 1.16
1.88 1.54 1.36 1.45 .80 1.31 1.22 1.22 1.13
1.81 1.58 1.39 NQ .82 1.29 1.08 1.08 .99
2.03 1.70 1.34 1.26 .73 1.26 1.30 1.05 1.07 1.16
1
Preliminary.
NQ = No quote.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by U.S. Farmers for Oats
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
2.17 1.81 1.39 1.22 1.24 1.38 1.95 1.83 1.61 1.91
2.13 1.68 1.19 1.08 1.07 1.33 1.69 1.46 1.36 1.59
2.00 1.57 1.02 .97 .93 1.25 1.67 1.39 1.32 1.47
1.83 1.47 1.07 1.08 .95 1.39 1.80 1.39 1.42 1.54
1.84 1.62 1.09 1.06 1.08 1.64 1.80 1.44 1.45 1.59
1.85 1.66 1.10 1.12 1.22 1.79 1.91 1.29 1.51 1.63
1.72 1.57 1.19 1.18 1.14 1.92 1.95 1.58 1.60 1.73
1.83 1.60 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.93 2.04 1.48 1.64 1.73
1.81 1.60 1.20 1.27 1.28 1.91 2.11 1.58 1.67 1.78
1.91 1.64 1.20 1.28 1.24 1.99 2.08 1.60 1.74
1.87 1.61 1.18 1.35 1.28 1.99 1.98 1.63 1.65
1.86 1.53 1.31 1.31 1.28 1.99 1.95 1.70 1.64
1.96 1.61 1.18 1.18 1.16 1.71 1.91 1.53 1.55 1.66
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
183
Olive Oil Olive oil is derived from the fruit of the olive tree and originated in the Mediterranean area. Olives designated for oil are picked before ripening in the fall. Olive picking is usually done by hand. The olives are then weighed and washed in cold water. The olives, along with their oil-rich pits, are then crushed and kneaded until a homogeneous paste is formed. The paste is spread by hand onto metal plates, which are then stacked and pressed hydraulically to yield a liquid. The liquid is then centrifuged to separate the oil. It takes 1,300 to 2,000 olives to produce 1 quart of olive oil. The best olive oil is still produced from the first pressing, which is usually performed within 24 to 72 hours after harvest and is called extra virgin olive oil. Supply – World production of olive oil (pressed oil) in the marketing year 2004-05 fell -13.9% to 2.730 million metric tons, from last year’s record high. The world’s largest producers of olive oil in 2003-04 were Spain (with 37% of world production), Italy (21%), Greece (17%), Syria (7%), and
World Production of Olive Oil (Pressed Oil) Year
Algeria Argentina
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
6.5 54.5 33.5 26.5 25.5 15.0 69.5 40.0
Preliminary.
2
8.5 7.0 11.5 3.0 10.0 11.0 13.5 7.0
Estimate.
3
Trade – World olive oil imports in 2004-05 fell –12.7% to 621,000 metric tons. The US was the world’s largest importer in 2004-05 with 248,200 metric tons, representing 40% of world imports. The world’s largest exporters are Italy (with 32% of world exports), Spain (17%), Tunisia (16%), and Turkey (11%).
Greece
Italy
Jordan
Libya
Morocco
Portugal
Spain
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey
World Total
405.0 511.0 454.0 467.0 388.3 449.0 332.0 453.0
585.0 427.2 670.0 508.0 500.0 620.0 470.0 563.0
16.0 23.5 7.0 29.5 16.0 30.0 21.0 27.0
6.0 8.0 7.0 4.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 5.5
75.0 71.0 45.0 39.5 66.0 48.5 110.0 54.0
45.5 40.3 58.3 28.5 36.7 31.9 38.2 34.7
1,212.0 804.0 694.1 1,040.0 1,468.0 949.4 1,566.0 1,000.0
78.0 129.0 88.0 183.0 104.0 184.5 121.5 197.0
99.0 231.0 225.0 141.0 40.0 76.0 296.0 130.0
45.0 188.0 61.0 197.5 71.0 187.0 80.0 162.0
2,615.5 2,537.1 2,412.4 2,731.7 2,780.1 2,685.0 3,170.1 2,730.0
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
In Thousands of Metric Tons
----------------------------------------------- Imports ----------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- Exports ------------------------------------------AustUnited World World ralia Brazil Italy Ja p a n Spain States Total Greece Italy Spain Tunisia Turkey Total
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
Demand – World consumption of olive oil in the 200405 marketing year rose +2.0% to a new record high of 2.957 million metric tons. The US is the world’s largest consumer of olive oil with 7.9% of world consumption in 2004-05. US consumption of olive oil reached a record 233,800 metric tons in 2004-05 and was about five times the consumption level seen 20 years earlier.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
World Imports and Exports of Olive Oil (Pressed Oil) Year
Turkey (6%). Production levels in the various countries are highly volatile from year-to-year depending on various weather and crop conditions.
17.7 23.7 24.2 29.5 26.4 32.0 30.5 31.5
Preliminary.
2
28.9 23.5 25.6 24.7 24.0 21.1 23.2 25.3
Estimate.
89.4 150.4 105.1 110.5 50.8 70.1 178.2 83.2 3
Forecast.
35.5 28.1 27.2 29.6 31.2 31.4 33.1 35.0
28.0 76.8 23.4 13.3 6.6 16.6 49.1 26.3
161.0 169.9 189.3 212.5 218.1 220.1 244.8 248.2
467.8 573.5 507.1 545.5 483.0 530.1 711.5 621.0
9.3 6.3 8.8 6.3 9.5 10.6 9.7 7.7
Preliminary.
184
126.8 172.5 122.4 101.0 33.0 42.9 197.0 100.0
42.2 99.0 25.8 77.5 35.8 60.8 47.1 70.2
469.4 572.9 496.9 554.7 477.7 535.7 712.4 631.7
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------------------------ Consumption ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------- Ending Stocks ------------------------------------United World World Brazil Morocco Syria Tunisia Turkey States Total Greece Italy Spain Syria Turkey Total
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
82.0 70.9 95.6 97.9 116.9 118.5 123.3 110.5
Source: The Oil World
World Consumption and Ending Stocks of Olive Oil (Pressed Oil) Year
140.2 141.6 176.8 194.1 199.6 198.3 201.0 202.6
28.9 23.5 25.6 24.7 24.0 21.1 23.2 25.3 2
61.3 62.5 55.7 46.6 61.8 64.7 74.3 69.9
Estimate.
106.9 107.8 99.0 122.4 108.1 131.2 136.1 147.0 3
Forecast.
61.0 64.8 63.3 61.3 38.4 31.3 58.8 59.1
82.9 74.3 76.3 79.9 75.2 91.6 70.4 75.0
Source: The Oil World
154.8 160.9 180.1 205.5 211.5 218.7 225.3 233.8
2,406.9 2,538.0 2,614.0 2,734.7 2,728.1 2,806.3 2,899.0 2,957.0
118.3 132.0 143.0 126.0 131.0 138.0 108.0
204.1 120.8 177.5 134.4 78.0 167.0 79.0
533.1 554.0 320.0 289.5 488.0 207.0 397.0
24.0 46.0 36.6 87.2 70.7 98.0 55.0 57.0
35.0 50.0 9.9 50.0 12.0 47.0 10.0 27.0
1,053.7 1,033.2 836.4 824.2 881.4 754.4 1,024.6 786.9
Onions Onions are the bulbs of plants in the lily family. Onions can be eaten raw, cooked, pickled, used as a flavoring or seasoning, or dehydrated. Onions rank in the top 10 vegetables produced in the US in terms of dollar value. Since 1629, onions have been cultivated in the US, but are believed to be indigenous to Asia.
February, rallied to $22.40 in June, but then faded after that to close 2005 at $12.30 due to ideal summer growing conditions in the US. Supply – US production in 2004 rose sharply by 9.0% to a record 7.633 billion pounds. The farm value of the US production crop in 2004 was $863 million, down from $982 million in 2003. US farmers harvested 166,950 acres in 2004, up 3% from 2003. The yield per acre in 2004 was a record high 457 pounds per acre.
The two main types of onions produced in the US are yellow and white onions. Yellow varieties comprise approximately 75% of all onions grown for bulb production in the US. Onions that are planted as a winter crop in warm areas are milder in taste and odor than onions planted during the summer in cooler regions.
Demand – US per capita consumption of onions in 2004 rose to 20.5 pounds from 20.3 pounds in 2002. Trade – US exports of fresh onions in 2003 totaled 678 million pounds, and imports were not far behind at 646 million pounds.
Prices – Onion prices in 2005 averaged a record $13.46 per hundred pounds, up +14.1% from $11.80 in 2004. Onion prices were weak in early 2005 reaching a low of $7.29 in
Salient Statistics of Onions in the United States Crop Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Harvested Acres
Yield Per Acre
Production 1,000 Cwt.
167,070 164,990 162,720 160,090 168,950 161,520
432 419 429 442 491 457
72,948 69,961 69,844 73,636 83,007 73,769
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
3
Price Per Cwt.
Farm Value $1,000
11.30 11.40 12.10 13.70 10.50 13.70
735,939 680,350 764,994 929,274 777,339 922,369
I ncludes fresh and processing.
Production of Onions in the United States Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
Per Capita3 Annual Jan. 1 Utiliz ation P a ck Imports Exports Imports P a ck Frozen Canned (Fresh) (Fresh) -- Lbs., Farm Weight -Frozen ---------------------- In Millions of Pounds ----------------------All Fresh
58.3 54.9 29.9 39.5 38.6 39.9
226.2 142.6 387.1 309.6
5.0 5.0 7.1 10.3 10.5
763.5 708.2 637.1 679.0 620.1
1,376 1,290 690 750 800 920
3,089 2,666 2,708 3,675 3,586 3,468
4,185 4,615 4,725 3,520 3,875 4,650
11,812 11,136 9,561 10,133 12,031 11,243
16,154 12,069 11,562 14,700 13,200 11,815
Year
18.9 18.5 19.3 19.5 21.7 20.3
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agiculture (ERS-USDA)
In Thousands of Hundredweight (Cwt.)
4,083 4,140 4,400 3,696 5,500 4,180
4,810 4,992 6,272 5,880 8,008 6,080
945 999 897 1,152 928 962
19 73 78 65 -------
-------------------
4,674 4,224 2,829 3,808 5,200 3,808
6,960 7,006 7,800 7,198 8,658 7,616
-------------------
59,909 56,517 60,283 63,230 70,976 62,526
Grand Total
71,721 67,653 69,844 73,363 83,007 73,769
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agiculture (ASB-USDA)
Cold Storage Stocks of Froz en Onions in the United States, on First of Month
1
20.4 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.8 21.6
--------------------- Spring --------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Summer ------------------------------------------------------------------Total MinneNew New Oregon Total Arizona California Texas (All) California Colorado Idaho Michigan sota Mexico York (Malheur) Texas (All)
Preliminary.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
476.9 632.6 595.8 646.1 689.2
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
41,236 40,420 29,893 39,480 38,632 39,865
40,730 39,722 33,646 39,764 32,515 40,428
44,029 39,407 34,851 43,624 34,080 44,191
45,874 36,925 35,477 37,569 36,724 48,695
52,691 36,503 40,789 35,625 39,364 50,579
55,340 38,705 41,066 35,617 41,525 47,418
53,537 38,275 40,762 36,529 37,408 45,605
42,910 29,993 33,370 35,590 34,845 47,231
40,792 28,912 36,895 35,907 34,888 44,834
34,318 26,133 36,120 33,844 35,826 40,718
37,408 27,726 39,796 38,693 38,098 43,751
39,909 28,987 39,310 39,467 39,789 38,240
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agiculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Grow ers for Onions in the United States In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds (Cwt.) Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
5.86 11.40 9.48 12.30 18.20 6.29
4.86 10.60 8.27 14.90 21.30 5.61
4.38 10.70 6.92 21.80 12.80 7.62
10.00 12.80 16.20 39.30 20.80 16.30
12.50 15.50 16.10 32.00 18.10 17.40
12.10 15.30 15.60 22.10 16.50 22.40
13.30 15.50 15.10 16.70 16.40 20.10
12.10 12.30 12.20 13.80 13.40 17.20
10.60 10.70 10.00 12.20 11.30 11.60
10.10 9.20 9.61 12.60 9.22 11.30
10.70 7.41 9.79 13.90 9.01 10.60
11.10 9.35 11.50 12.70 8.58 12.30
Preliminary.
S e a so n Average
11.30 11.40 12.10 13.70 10.50
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agiculture (ERS-USDA)
185
Oranges and Orange Juice The orange tree is a semi-tropical, non-deciduous tree, and the fruit is technically a hesperidium, a kind of berry. The orange originated in India and was called na rangi in Sanskrit. The original fruit was bitter compared to modern varieties. The three major varieties of oranges include the sweet orange, the sour orange, and the mandarin orange (or tangerine). In the US, only sweet oranges are grown commercially. Those include Hamlin, Jaffa, navel, Pineapple, blood orange, and Valencia. Sour oranges are mainly used in marmalade and in liqueurs such as triple sec and curacao. Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) was developed in 1945, which led to oranges becoming the main fruit crop in the US. The world’s largest producer of orange juice is Brazil, followed by Florida. Two to four medium-sized oranges will produce about 1 cup of juice, and modern mechanical extractors can remove the juice from 400 to 700 oranges per minute. Before juice extraction, orange oil is recovered from the peel. Orange oil is used to produce flavors, perfumes, wood furniture conditioners, and cleaning agents. Approximately 50% of the orange weight is juice, the remainder is peel, pulp, and seeds, which are dried to produce nutritious cattle feed. Frozen concentrated orange juice future and options are traded on the NYCE division of the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). The NYCE orange juice futures contract calls for
the delivery of 15,000 pounds of orange solids and is priced in terms of cents per pound. Prices – NYCE orange juice futures prices in 2005 rallied sharply during the year to post a new 7-year high and close the year at 125.2 cents per pound, up 45% from 2004. Orange juice futures prices in 2005 extended the rally that began in late 2004 on hurricane damage that slashed the size of the 2004-05 Florida orange crop by 25%. In 2005, Hurricane Wilma hit Florida on October 24, 2005, causing the second year of severe damage to the Florida orange crop and allowing a recovery of only 5% in the crop size. The Florida orange crop sizes in 2004-05 and 2005-06 were only about two-thirds of the average crop size seen in 1994-2003. In addition, the popularity of the Atkins low-carb diet waned in 2005, meaning OJ demand picked up. Supply – World production of oranges in the 2004-05 marketing year fell –11.3% yr/yr to 45.434 million metric tons, falling back from the record level of 51.220 million metric tons seen in 2003-04. The world’s largest producers of oranges are Brazil with 37% of world production, followed by the US (18%), and Mexico (9%). US production of oranges in 2005-06 rose +4% yr/yr to 9.44 million tons from 9.11 million tons in 2004-05. Florida’s production in 2005-06 rose +5% yr/yr to 158 million boxes from 150 million boxes in 2004-05.
World Production of Oranges
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Egypt
Greece
Italy
Mexico
Morocco
South Africa
Spain
Turkey
United States
World Total
703 841 921 660 789 913 780 700 750 770
416 556 448 515 624 437 633 407 461 500
16,973 18,972 15,912 18,360 17,136 14,729 18,360 15,382 19,054 16,606
1,555 1,613 1,350 1,442 1,637 1,610 1,696 1,734 1,740 1,750
838 946 987 795 1,040 976 1,076 1,145 950 820
1,800 2,100 2,100 1,422 1,750 1,800 1,724 1,723 1,835 1,997
3,590 3,917 3,331 2,903 3,385 3,885 4,020 3,734 3,901 4,120
1,013 774 1,131 900 845 693 720 800 705 813
930 895 961 1,048 1,119 1,119 1,263 1,148 1,113 1,120
2,573 2,200 2,744 2,442 2,828 2,688 2,822 2,950 3,052 2,700
842 890 740 970 1,100 1,070 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,280
10,453 11,618 12,495 8,989 11,875 11,139 11,290 10,527 11,734 8,293
44,526 48,438 46,282 43,961 48,286 44,588 49,828 45,829 51,220 45,434
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
NA = Not available.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Oranges & Orange Juice in the United States Froz en Concentrated ----------- Florida Crop Processed ----------- --------------- Orange Juice - Florida --------------------------- Production4 -------------
Year
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053
Total California Florida U.S. ------------ Million Boxes ------------
58.0 64.0 69.0 36.0 64.0 54.5 51.5 62.0 50.5 61.0
203.3 226.2 244.0 186.0 233.0 223.3 230.0 203.0 242.0 149.6
263.9 293.0 315.5 224.6 299.8 280.9 283.8 267.0 294.6 212.8
Farm Price $ P er B ox
Farm Value Million $
6.85 6.16 6.13 7.41 5.56 5.88 6.37 5.80 5.90 6.87
1,821.6 1,836.7 1,965.4 1,687.9 1,666.1 1,682.8 1,846.2 1,564.7 1,782.2 1,498.1
Yield Total Total Frozen Pro- Per Box S e a so n ConcenChilled Total cessed Gallons5 Carry-in P a ck trates Products Supply Movement ------------------- Million Boxes ------------------- ----- In Millions of Gallons (42 Deg. Brix) -----
132.9 153.8 160.9 97.2 134.2 124.1 136.0 102.1 139.7 54.3
64.5 65.7 74.8 80.1 90.1 89.6 85.9 92.5 93.4 88.5
197.7 220.4 236.6 175.1 226.7 215.9 223.2 196.0 233.6 145.0
1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. 4 Fruit ripened on trees, but destroyed prior to picking not included. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA); Florida Department of Citrus
1
186
42.4 41.2 69.7 104.7 105.2 112.6 128.3 120.2 124.0 151.8 5
284.5 289.6 290.2 216.9 254.0 245.2 253.2 203.3 249.7 86.3
326.9 342.9 359.9 321.6 359.2 357.8 381.5 323.5 373.7 238.1
42 deg. Brix equivalent.
285.7 273.9 263.8 209.1 239.7 226.0 249.9 200.1 213.8 175.2
ORANGES AND ORANGE JUICE
Average Open Interest of Froz en Concentrated Orange Juice Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
22,943 29,171 38,885 25,917 23,727 28,852 15,716 25,080 36,079 33,821
21,670 26,929 37,893 28,965 24,647 28,011 16,593 26,588 35,325 33,619
25,232 26,331 36,843 28,707 19,684 28,073 18,515 22,707 32,806 30,008
23,788 28,955 33,146 31,199 22,475 27,794 22,328 21,466 36,112 32,523
21,724 29,868 35,749 26,669 23,456 24,199 23,498 20,634 34,704 26,171
20,934 33,639 32,608 28,362 27,087 24,428 26,581 23,794 42,299 28,730
20,159 31,799 25,503 28,087 27,386 22,591 28,137 25,467 39,970 32,221
19,834 34,339 26,394 30,021 30,272 22,073 33,206 26,518 38,259 29,034
18,029 36,057 28,017 28,922 30,090 17,789 27,323 27,788 39,877 23,603
18,000 40,365 26,506 27,498 32,328 18,026 23,758 30,767 38,990 28,602
22,513 41,811 21,984 26,893 30,192 21,506 22,651 31,575 33,342 34,966
26,405 46,169 24,562 25,887 30,757 19,275 23,461 36,336 36,072 35,795
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of Froz en Concentrated Orange Juice Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
59,666 84,982 96,020 64,149 45,680 46,655 31,709 45,945 52,908 54,140
82,057 89,875 81,554 92,868 78,532 66,561 50,898 63,224 86,600 85,349
Mar.
Apr.
46,272 65,752 66,340 82,772 66,235 101,651 40,027 92,522 33,617 71,024 27,994 63,012 30,316 58,644 23,926 70,846 41,941 99,532 57,557 87,595
May
June
July
Aug.
62,247 44,827 40,884 58,346 62,890 78,690 47,242 118,286 70,909 79,319 48,844 85,544 49,180 78,627 48,177 99,531 50,475 80,372 46,548 67,312 38,447 66,773 40,870 64,860 37,283 52,238 45,316 78,111 35,791 64,209 27,056 73,792 45,741 123,815 105,220 118,021 40,785 94,913 61,610 92,195
Sept.
In Contracts Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
44,239 40,680 39,291 70,676 654,937 55,081 108,413 100,941 134,349 1,029,861 81,187 98,639 29,541 75,171 914,614 49,323 71,914 42,532 68,734 797,584 38,485 64,831 45,966 89,362 712,204 22,246 68,364 23,376 48,338 577,496 36,053 71,635 24,111 61,443 577,757 40,782 87,055 42,084 78,005 652,715 65,655 89,064 56,502 85,438 970,437 46,868 117,355 50,098 113,574 902,039
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
187
ORANGES AND ORANGE JUICE Cold Storage Stocks of Orange Juice Concentrate2 in the U.S., on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1,050.6 1,069.4 1,503.4 1,791.9 1,330.7 1,382.0 1,571.7 1,673.6 1,585.8 1,468.8
1,295.4 1,522.6 1,945.9 1,999.4 1,540.6 1,610.8 1,721.3 1,851.9 1,613.0 1,553.8
1,353.0 1,677.6 2,029.7 2,204.2 1,632.7 1,825.1 1,770.9 1,833.4 1,646.1 1,578.9
1,322.3 1,752.9 2,025.0 2,191.3 1,857.9 1,735.5 1,794.4 1,856.6 1,790.5 1,578.2
1,443.9 1,993.4 2,487.0 2,485.7 1,812.5 1,872.2 1,886.0 1,936.8 1,987.6 1,652.4
1,596.9 2,176.0 2,627.5 2,115.6 1,965.6 2,061.8 1,982.8 2,102.6 2,128.7 1,668.1
1,535.0 1,977.7 2,457.7 1,969.7 2,037.9 2,035.6 1,934.0 2,021.2 2,075.7 1,548.8
1,423.6 1,761.8 2,249.0 1,823.0 1,843.7 1,913.2 1,870.9 1,848.9 1,953.4 1,501.6
1,238.6 1,571.8 2,025.1 1,618.5 1,457.7 1,691.1 1,680.9 1,672.2 1,823.3 1,397.3
965.6 1,287.8 1,803.9 1,443.4 1,346.6 1,537.7 1,543.6 1,529.9 1,644.2 1,243.3
732.7 1,140.9 1,470.7 1,182.0 1,169.4 1,398.9 1,409.6 1,335.6 1,516.8 1,139.9
691.0 1,214.4 1,540.2 1,102.7 1,202.0 1,406.7 1,471.2 1,428.5 1,458.0 1,027.6
Preliminary. 2 Adjusted to 42.0 degrees Brix equivalent (9.896 pounds per gallon). Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
1
Producer Price Index of Froz en Orange Juice Concentrate Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of
1982 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
109.4 106.9 94.9 119.7 110.0 98.9 103.0 110.2 103.4 103.3
112.5 106.9 101.2 118.6 108.9 99.2 102.9 110.2 103.2 103.3
117.2 106.0 104.1 118.0 108.0 98.3 103.1 110.7 102.7 105.0
119.5 107.6 103.2 115.5 107.1 96.8 102.9 110.4 101.6 109.0
119.5 107.7 108.8 113.3 106.9 96.8 102.8 108.5 101.6 109.0
119.5 107.3 109.1 113.2 106.6 97.4 103.2 109.4 101.6 109.0
115.3 105.3 109.5 112.5 105.4 97.3 103.2 109.1 98.9 109.3
113.6 105.8 109.6 111.3 104.8 97.2 103.5 108.9 98.9 109.3
113.6 102.7 109.5 112.4 101.5 97.3 107.4 107.1 98.9 107.6
112.8 101.4 110.2 112.5 100.4 97.3 107.4 106.6 98.9 NA
112.8 95.0 119.1 113.1 99.8 99.6 109.7 105.1 103.3 NA
108.8 94.2 121.2 112.4 99.1 102.5 110.2 103.0 103.3 118.2
114.5 103.9 108.4 114.4 104.9 98.2 104.9 108.3 101.4 108.3
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor (BLS)
Average Price of Oranges (Equivalent On-Tree) Received by Grow ers in the U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
188
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
In Dollars Per Box
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3.97 3.59 3.14 4.52 3.35 2.85 3.75 3.00 2.45 3.39
4.39 3.67 3.55 4.99 3.18 3.20 4.05 3.14 3.02 3.69
5.20 4.82 5.05 5.90 3.24 4.93 4.64 4.17 3.68 4.26
6.11 4.68 5.44 5.96 4.20 4.84 4.65 4.43 3.68 5.02
6.63 4.74 5.70 6.48 4.39 4.64 4.47 4.43 3.60 5.07
6.72 4.62 6.05 8.04 4.34 4.47 4.00 4.41 4.13 5.40
6.97 6.48 6.77 8.58 2.45 4.63 4.06 3.91 8.85 7.11
8.15 7.45 5.56 6.66 0.35 5.01 6.61 4.27 8.49 4.90
13.70 7.15 5.64 9.96 0.29 6.20 5.33 2.80 15.85 4.57
10.94 4.48 5.98 9.50 1.43 4.99 5.18 2.78 20.87 4.85
4.17 3.09 5.03 4.70 3.20 2.90 3.11 2.32 5.34 8.82
3.52 3.14 4.82 3.42 2.95 3.20 3.23 2.55 3.27 4.42
6.71 4.83 5.23 6.56 2.78 4.32 4.42 3.52 6.94 5.13
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Palm Oil Palm oil is an edible vegetable oil produced from the flesh of the fruit of the oil palm tree. The oil palm tree is a tropical palm tree that is a native of the west coast of Africa and is different from the coconut palm tree. The fruit of the oil palm tree is reddish, about the size of a large plum, and grows in large bunches. A single seed, the palm kernel, is contained in each fruit. Oil is extracted from both the pulp of the fruit (becoming palm oil) and the kernel (palm kernel oil). About 1 metric ton of palm kernel oil is obtained for every 10 metric tons of palm oil. Palm oil is commercially used in soap, ointments, cosmetics, detergents, and machinery lubricants. It is also used worldwide as cooking oil, shortening, and margarine. Palm kernel oil is a lighter oil and is used exclusively for food use. Crude palm oil and crude palm kernel oil are traded on the Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange. Prices – The monthly average wholesale price of palm oil (CIF, bulk, US ports) in 2004 rose by +6.4% yr/yr to a record high of 34.09 cents per pound. That was just slightly above the previous record high of 34.08 cents per pound posted in 1984. Supply – World production of palm oil in the 2004-05 marketing year rose by +9.6% to 32.500 million metric tons.
World Production of Palm Oil Crop Year
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053 1
Preliminary.
World palm oil production has grown by almost 17 times from the production level of 1.922 million metric tons seen back in 1970. Malaysia and Indonesia are the world’s two major global producers of palm oil. Malaysian production in 2004-05 rose +13.0% to 15.160 million metric tons and Malaysian production accounted for 47% of world production. Indonesian production rose +7.4% to 12.600 million metric tons in 2004-05 and Indonesian production accounted for 39% of world production. Other minor global producers include Nigeria with 2.5% of world production, Thailand (2.2%), and Papua New Guinea with (1.1%). Demand – US total disappearance of palm oil in 200405 rose +24.6% yr/yr to 295,000 metric tons from 227,800 metric tons in 2003-04. Trade – World palm oil exports in 2004-05 rose by 9.0% to 25.465 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest exporters are Malaysia with a 54% share of world exports, followed by Indonesia with a 35% share. The world’s largest importers are China with a 17% share of world imports, followed by Pakistan (6%), the Netherlands (6%), UK (3%), and Germany (3%), and India (1%).
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
Cameroon
Colombi a
Costa Rica
Ecuador
Ghana
Indonesia
Ivory C o a st
Malaysi a
Nigeria
Papua/N Guinea
Thailand
World Total
90 90 88 91 105 109 115 128 134 151
130 161 140 133 136 138 143 142 148 152
393 440 439 466 513 561 517 537 614 650
93 97 108 117 136 147 131 148 192 196
220 200 205 247 228 226 231 246 264 272
79 83 107 110 109 108 108 111 110 116
4,587 5,078 5,320 6,011 6,855 7,775 9,060 10,300 11,730 12,600
277 258 270 265 283 211 241 224 247 276
8,264 9,000 8,509 9,759 10,492 11,940 11,856 13,180 13,418 15,160
667 678 688 713 735 763 774 782 789 798
236 248 206 257 300 334 338 310 344 355
369 438 469 540 533 601 606 630 664 710
16,152 17,569 17,305 19,501 21,266 23,803 25,027 27,669 29,646 32,500
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
World Trade of Palm Oil
Source: The Oil World
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Crop Year
---------------------------------------------- Imports ---------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------- Exports ----------------------------------------NetherUnited World Hong IndoMalay- Papua/N SingaWorld China Germany India lands Pakistan Kingdom Total Kong nesia si a Guinea pore Total
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053
1,178 1,851 1,490 1,433 1,474 2,147 2,600 3,167 3,570 4,200
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
446 498 370 406 431 497 592 562 654 792 3
970 1,300 1,684 2,762 3,482 3,856 3,233 4,110 3,574 3,320
Forecast.
544 649 670 738 780 907 1,101 1,132 1,139 1,423
1,166 1,020 1,210 1,053 1,086 1,191 1,333 1,442 1,405 1,450
500 516 457 528 558 610 721 776 819 875
10,558 11,751 11,971 12,977 14,759 17,415 18,743 21,621 23,341 25,250
160 145 120 113 130 180 302 209 154 150
2,082 2,419 2,459 3,219 3,898 4,577 6,094 7,107 8,580 9,010
6,896 7,794 7,847 8,482 9,051 10,707 10,758 12,133 12,186 13,700
191 203 207 248 292 334 332 329 336 350
829 829 253 289 251 228 217 253 227 250
10,582 11,974 11,795 13,246 14,628 17,280 18,891 21,520 23,357 25,465
Source: The Oil World
189
PALM OIL Supply and Distribution of Palm Oil in the United States
Year Beginning Oct. 1
Stocks Oct. 1
Imports
Total Supply
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-031 2003-042 2004-053
7.4 14.0 21.4 16.1 21.1 25.7 27.5 24.1 22.5 64.0
106.9 146.4 128.0 128.8 156.6 175.5 218.7 189.3 282.5 315.0
114.3 160.4 149.4 144.9 177.7 201.2 246.2 213.4 305.0 379.0
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------- Consumption ------------Edible Inedible Total End Products Products Products ------- In Millions of Pounds -------
6.7 W W W W W W W 51.9 62.3
103.9 91.8 93.8 72.4 55.0 36.0 22.6 W 37.5 W
110.6 W W W W W 75.1 76.7 67.9 62.3
Total D i sa p pearance
Exports
91.1 134.8 128.8 118.6 148.5 167.7 215.9 182.8 227.8 295.0
9.2 4.2 4.4 5.2 3.4 6.0 6.2 8.1 13.1 22.0
---------------------- Prices ----------------------Palm Kernal U.S. Malaysia, Oil, Malaysia, Import F.O.B., Value4 RBD C.I.F. Rotterdam ----------- U.S. $ Per Metric Ton -----------
511 432 464
545 544 640 514 338 272 359 428 489 422
729 680 653 708 533 313 379 439 619 661
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. 4 Market value in the foreign country, excluding import duties, ocean freight and marine insurance. Sources: The Oil World; Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Average Wholesale Palm Oil Prices, CIF, Bulk, U.S. Ports Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
34.26 27.08 28.68 29.30 31.06 18.65 18.05 17.75 31.75 34.00
33.82 26.52 29.25 29.59 28.58 17.66 18.05 17.06 31.75 35.38
36.18 26.33 28.00 30.53 25.52 17.73 13.50 17.30 31.35 35.25
35.56 27.52 28.18 32.10 25.52 18.21 13.50 17.75 31.25 36.40
32.80 28.57 28.93 31.11 24.50 18.12 12.50 18.85 31.25 36.50
33.06 25.43 27.25 31.42 21.30 16.52 13.00 21.44 31.75 36.50
33.68 24.78 26.17 32.33 18.15 16.85 15.50 20.50 32.25 36.50
32.59 24.46 25.55 33.14 18.70 16.23 18.00 21.85 32.25 36.50
30.86 27.24 25.37 33.14 21.00 15.90 16.75 32.00 32.25 34.00
31.45 26.13 27.33 33.06 20.00 13.19 15.60 31.75 32.25 30.00
31.96 26.95 27.28 33.30 20.00 13.56 16.85 31.75 32.44 29.00
30.00 27.45 25.05 34.00 20.00 12.75 17.45 31.75 33.75 29.00
33.02 26.54 27.25 31.92 22.86 16.28 15.73 23.31 32.02 34.09
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
190
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
Paper The earliest known paper that is still in existence was made from cotton rags around 150 AD. Around 800 AD, paper made its appearance in Egypt but was not manufactured there until 900 AD. The Moors introduced the use of paper to Europe, and around 1150, the first papermaking mill was established in Spain, followed by England in 1495, and the US in 1690.
Prices – The average monthly index price for paperboard in 2005 (through August) rose +4.4% yr/yr to 177.7, recovering from the 5-year low of 162.7 posted in 2003. The average monthly producer price index of standard newsprint paper in 2005 (through August) rose by +7.7% to 134.2, continuing the upward rebound from the 18-year low of 105.7 posted in 2002.
During the 17th and 18th centuries, the increased usage of paper created a shortage of cotton rags, which were the only source for papermaking. The solution to this problem lead to the introduction of the ground-wood process of pulpmaking in 1840 and the first chemical pulp process 10 years later.
Supply – US production of paper and paperboard in 2003 (latest data available) fell slightly by –1.3% yr/yr to a new 8-year low of 80.800 million metric tons. The US is the world’s largest producer of paper and paperboard by far, followed by Canada with 20.100 million metric tons and Germany with 19.310 million metric tons.
Today, the paper and paperboard industries, including newsprint, are sensitive to the economic cycle. As the economy strengthens, paper use increases, and vice versa.
US production of newsprint fell by –2.4% yr/yr to a record low of 416.6 metric tons per month in 2005. US production of newsprint is second in the world, after Canada, which had production of 657.200 metric tons per month in 2005.
Production of Paper and Paperboard by Selected Countries Year
Austria
Canada
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
4,142 4,386 4,250 4,419 4,565 4,852
20,280 20,921 19,834 20,226 20,120 20,578
12,947 13,509 12,502 12,789 13,058 14,036
9,603 10,006 9,625 9,809 9,939 10,249
16,742 18,182 17,879 18,526 19,310 20,392
8,568 9,129 8,926 9,317 9,491 9,667
3,256 3,332 3,174 3,346 3,339 3,459
1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons Norway
Russia
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
2,241 2,300 2,220 2,114 2,186 2,294
4,535 5,310 5,625 5,978 6,377 6,789
4,435 4,765 5,131 5,365 5,437 5,490
10,071 10,786 10,534 10,724 11,062 11,589
6,576 6,868 6,467 6,481 6,489 6,503
88,670 86,252 81,249 81,879 80,712 83,612
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Production of New sprint by Selected Countries (Monthly Average) Year
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Finland
France
Germany
India
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Russia
Sweden
United States
96.0 98.0 97.0 102.0 104.0 112.0
20.3 22.2 19.4 20.6 13.6 11.1 10.7
766.4 768.5 697.7 671.4 673.3 648.0 657.2
93.4 121.0 127.4 156.0 170.9 248.4 277.9
124.2 116.1 106.5 87.3 78.9 60.2 47.9
79.2 86.6 86.0 82.0 60.0 93.8 96.3
136.9 150.5 170.5 173.5 178.1 185.9 226.0
32.4 48.9 53.0 49.6 58.2 58.1 70.6
274.6 284.9 288.7 299.7 292.9 307.6 307.8
144.8 151.5 136.6 137.9 133.3 145.4 136.3
135.2 141.2 144.3 142.8 151.2 164.8 166.8
209.0 211.5 205.3 202.0 210.7 220.8 213.3
543.0 547.5 480.8 437.4 429.2 424.7 414.6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: United Nations
Index Price of Paperboard Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
1982 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
142.2 163.1 179.4 165.0 166.8 157.8 179.7
142.3 163.6 176.6 164.0 166.5 157.4 180.0
146.4 173.6 175.8 162.6 164.4 157.5 180.1
148.1 176.6 175.2 162.8 163.5 162.2 180.7
149.3 180.4 174.1 161.1 163.6 165.5 180.9
149.5 180.3 172.4 161.1 163.4 170.0 176.6
154.5 180.9 172.3 161.8 162.5 175.2 174.6
158.6 181.2 169.8 165.8 162.5 178.5 168.5
161.0 180.9 169.0 166.7 160.5 179.2 166.9
162.1 180.4 167.1 167.1 159.9 179.4 167.2
162.2 180.2 166.8 167.3 159.6 180.1 173.9
162.3 179.5 167.0 166.6 159.7 179.3 173.2
153.2 176.7 172.1 164.3 162.7 170.2 175.2
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS) (0914)
Producer Price Index of Standard New sprint Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
1982 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
143.0 117.2 140.6 113.6 106.1 116.5 130.3
135.9 116.8 141.4 106.2 107.4 116.7 131.9
128.1 116.5 143.0 106.5 106.3 118.8 131.6
125.0 118.3 150.9 105.7 110.2 122.4 132.8
117.8 123.1 146.8 98.9 112.6 125.0 133.2
117.7 127.1 148.5 100.5 112.5 126.0 135.9
110.3 127.6 146.6 101.0 111.0 125.6 138.8
111.7 130.7 142.4 101.8 114.3 125.7 141.4
111.4 131.5 134.5 104.7 116.8 125.8 152.3
NA 139.4 130.1 112.2 118.1 129.5 140.3
NA 141.2 121.6 109.6 114.6 129.8 145.2
NA 140.5 117.3 107.9 115.0 132.4 145.0
122.3 127.5 138.6 105.7 112.1 124.5 138.2
Preliminary.
NA = Not available.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS) (0913-02)
191
Peanuts and Peanut Oil Peanuts are the edible seeds of a plant from the pea family. Although called a nut, the peanut is actually a legume. Ancient South American Inca Indians were the first to grind peanuts to make peanut butter. Peanuts originated in Brazil and were later brought to the US via Africa. The first major use of peanuts was as feed for pigs. It wasn’t until the Civil War that peanuts were used as human food when both Northern and Southern troops used the peanut as a food source during hard times. In 1903, Dr. George Washington Carver, a talented botanist who is considered the “father of commercial peanuts,” introduced peanuts as a rotation crop in cotton-growing areas. Carver discovered over 300 uses for the peanut including shaving cream, leather dye, coffee, ink, cheese, and shampoo. Peanuts come in many varieties, but there are four basic types grown in the US: Runner, Spanish, Valencia, and Virginia. Over half of Runner peanuts are used to make peanut butter. Spanish peanuts are primarily used to make candies and peanut oil. Valencia peanuts are the sweetest of the four types. Virginia peanuts are mainly roasted and sold in and out of the shell. Peanut oil is extracted from shelled and crushed peanuts through hydraulic pressing, expelled pressing, or solvent extraction. Crude peanut oil is used as a flavoring agent, salad oil, and cooking oil. Refined, bleached and deodorized peanut oil is used for cooking and in margarines and shortenings. The by-product called press cake is used for cattle feed along with the tops of the plants after the pods are removed. The dry shells can be burned as fuel. Prices – The average monthly price received by farmers for peanuts (in the shell) in the first 5 months of the 2005-06 marketing year (i.e., Aug-Dec 2005) fell by –6.3% to 17.4 cents per pound. The record high is 34.7 cents posted in 1990-91. The average monthly price of peanut oil in the 2005-06 marketing year (through November) fell –14.3% yr/ yr to 45.50 cents per pound. The average monthly price of peanut meal (50% Southeast Mills) fell by –9.9% yr/yr in 2005-06 to a record low of $104.00 per short ton.
+7.6% yr/yr to a new record high of 33.741 million metric tons. The world’s largest peanut producers are China with 45% of world production, India with 22%, US with 6%, and Nigeria with 4%. US peanut production in the 2005-06 marketing year rose by +8.6% to 4.658 billion pounds, which was a 14-year high but still below the record high of 4.927 billion pounds posted in 1991-92. US farmers harvested 1.607 million acres of peanuts in 2005-06, up +15.3% yr/yr and well above the 22-year low of 1.292 million acres seen in 2002-03. US peanut yield in 200506 fell –0.5% yr/yr to 3,061 pounds per acre from the record high of 3,159 pounds seen in 2003-04. The largest peanut producing states in the US are Georgia (with 44% of US production in 2005), Texas (20%), Alabama (12%), Florida (8%), and North Carolina (6%). US peanut oil production in 2005 (through November annualized) rose to +9.6% to 156.103 million pound. This was well above the record low level of 108.200 million pounds in 1984. Demand – US disposition of peanuts in 2004-05 rose by +7.0% yr/yr to 4.213 billion pounds. Of that disposition, 64% of the peanuts went for food, 13% for exports, 13% for seed, loss and residual, and 10% for crushing into peanut oil. The most popular type of peanut grown in the US is the Runner peanut with 87% of US production in 2004-05. This was followed by the Virginia peanut with 12% of production and the Spanish peanut far behind with only 2% of production. Peanut butter is a primary use for Runner and Virginia peanuts. It accounts for 53% of Runner peanut usage and 54% of Virginia peanut usage. In a poor third place, only 6% of Spanish peanuts are used for peanut butter. Snack peanuts is also a key usage category and accounts for 34% of Virginia peanut usage, 50% of Spanish peanut usage, and 22% of Runner peanut usage. Candy accounts for 50% of Spanish peanut usage, 22% of Runner peanut usage, and 12% of Virginia peanut usage. Trade –US exports of peanuts in 2004-05 rose by +5.6% yr/yr to 545 million pounds. US imports of peanuts rose by +28.2% yr/yr in 2004-05 to 50 million pounds.
Supply – World peanut production in 2004-05 rose by
World Production of Peanuts (in the Shell) Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
Preliminary.
192
Argentina
Burma
China
401 897 486 600 564 517 316 420 585 380
593 559 540 562 634 731 756 710 715 715
10,140 9,648 11,886 12,639 14,437 14,415 14,818 13,420 14,340 13,800
2
Estimate.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
India
Indonesia
Nigeria
Senegal
South Africa
Sudan
Thailand
United States
Zaire
World Total
9,024 7,580 7,450 5,500 5,700 7,600 5,400 7,700 6,800 6,600
985 990 930 1,020 1,040 1,033 1,086 1,130 1,150 1,170
950 1,250 1,430 1,450 1,470 1,490 1,510 1,510 1,520 1,520
646 506 541 764 1,003 903 260 445 573 700
140 97 138 165 186 120 60 115 64 90
370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370
147 130 135 137 132 107 112 120 130 130
1,661 1,605 1,798 1,737 1,481 1,940 1,506 1,880 1,945 2,187
570 400 410 396 382 368 355 360 364 365
29,059 27,561 29,951 29,417 31,426 33,809 30,816 32,611 33,142 32,617
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
PEANUTS AND PEANUT OIL Salient Statistics of Peanuts in the United States Crop Year
Acreage Harvested Agreage for Nuts Planted ----- 1,000 Acres -----
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
1,401.5 1,434.0 1,521.0 1,534.5 1,536.8 1,541.2 1,353.0 1,344.0 1,430.0 1,657.0
1
Preliminary.
2
Average Yield Per Acre In Lbs.
Production 1,000 Lbs.
S e a so n Farm Price Cents/Lb.
Farm Value Million Dollars
2,653 2,503 2,702 2,667 2,444 3,029 2,571 3,159 3,076 2,960
3,661,205 3,539,380 3,963,440 3,829,490 3,265,505 4,276,704 3,321,040 4,144,150 4,288,200 4,821,250
28.1 28.3 28.4 25.4 27.4 23.4 18.2 19.3 18.9 17.4
1,029.8 1,002.7 1,125.9 971.6 896.1 1,000.5 599.7 799.4 877.4 808.6
1,380.0 1,413.8 1,467.0 1,436.0 1,336.0 1,411.9 1,291.7 1,312.0 1,394.0 1,629.0
Estimate.
----- Thousand Pounds (Year Beginning August 1) ----------------- Exports -------------- ------------- Imports ------------Unshelled
Shelled
Unshelled
Shelled
668,000 682,000 562,000 727,000 527,000 700,000 490,000 516,000 545,000
440,438 455,264 ----------------------
127,000 141,000 155,000 178,000 216,000 203,000 75,000 39,000 50,000
95,041 101,792 ----------------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Supply and Disposition of Peanuts (Farmer's Stock Basis) & Support Program in the United States -------------------------------- Disposition --------------------------- -------- Government Support Program ------------------------------- Supply ------------------------Crop Year
Amount Put Total S eed, ProStocks Crushed Support Addi- --- Under Support --D i sa p L o ss & Total Exports Food pearance duction Imports Aug. 1 fior Oil Residual Price tional Quantity % of Pro-------------------------------------------------- In Millions of Pounds ----------------------------------------------------------- ---- Cents per Lb. ---- Mil. Lbs. duction
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 1
3,661 3,539 3,963 3,829 3,266 4,277 3,321 4,144 4,288
Preliminary.
2
127 141 155 178 216 203 75 39 50
Estimate.
758 795 848 1,392 1,233 1,097 1,476 875 1,121
4,546 4,475 4,966 5,399 4,715 5,576 4,873 5,058 5,433
668 682 562 727 527 700 490 516 545
692 544 460 713 548 693 857 536 442
363 303 374 493 360 482 410 429 525
2,029 2,099 2,153 2,233 2,184 2,225 2,241 2,456 2,701
3,750 3,627 3,574 4,166 3,618 4,100 3,998 3,937 4,213
Year
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
New Mexico
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2 0 0 51
449,805 372,490 432,415 448,050 271,180 532,325 379,800 508,750 557,200 613,250
236,160 228,060 233,100 260,380 213,710 250,100 197,800 345,000 364,000 410,400
1,433,770 1,333,830 1,511,655 1,400,800 1,328,400 1,711,620 1,313,000 1,863,000 1,817,800 2,152,500
37,950 46,710 62,040 61,600 54,990 67,044 54,000 45,900 59,500 62,700
Preliminary.
6.6 6.6 8.8 8.8 6.6 6.6 ----------
320 417 ----------------------
8.7 11.8 ----------------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of Peanuts (Harvested for Nuts) in the United States, by States
1
30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 30.50 ----------
In Thousands of Pounds
North Carolina
Okla homa
South Carolina
Texas
Virgina
Total
367,500 329,640 397,155 298,840 338,250 356,475 210,000 320,000 367,500 288,000
195,210 184,800 159,750 189,600 120,600 197,890 159,600 98,000 102,300 105,600
32,550 30,450 28,175 25,300 29,500 30,600 19,140 57,800 112,200 168,000
689,000 822,150 917,900 926,800 698,500 895,900 868,000 810,000 803,700 910,000
219,260 191,250 221,250 218,120 210,375 234,750 119,700 95,700 104,000 66,000
3,661,205 3,539,380 3,963,440 3,829,490 3,265,505 4,276,704 3,321,040 4,144,150 4,288,200 4,821,250
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Supply and Reported Uses of Shelled Peanuts and Products in the United States In Thousands of Pounds Shelled Peanuts Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051
Shelled Peanuts
---------------------------------- Reported Used (Shelled Peanuts -- Raw Basis) ----------------------------------C a ke & Shelled Crude Oil Meal Peanuts ProProOil Sandwich Other duction duction Stock2 Candy3 Snacks4 Spread Butter5 Products Total Crushed6
--- Stocks, Aug. 1 --- ------- Production ------- ----------------------------- Edible Grades Used In -----------------------------
Edible
Oil Stock2
Edible
370,431 498,954 580,370 855,572 707,672 680,850 504,186 603,529 621,190
126,318 41,000 14,091 16,587 14,463 16,648 24,231 17,686 17,686
1,692,581 1,694,016 2,227,037 2,157,828 1,939,736 2,090,776 1,983,016 2,439,231 2,357,871
305,674 290,882 310,459 448,875 337,324 485,092 611,627 390,893 250,517
360,846 351,017 380,177 354,953 355,610 349,729 354,232 365,983 389,686
290,102 306,908 349,806 394,121 361,516 360,916 344,913 414,588 450,585
----------------------------
727,531 760,230 744,706 772,104 753,239 818,927 828,529 901,637 937,117
33,825 35,471 22,131 20,227 19,998 17,284 24,379 15,930 22,560
1,412,304 1,453,626 1,496,820 1,541,405 1,490,363 1,546,856 1,552,053 1,698,138 1,799,948
520,413 409,249 345,825 536,164 411,558 521,173 644,194 402,958 295,769
220,877 175,853 145,254 228,839 178,523 230,791 285,685 172,977 126,249
294,590 228,276 192,425 291,491 230,099 296,874 356,888 226,995 172,668
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes straight run oil stock peanuts. 3 I ncludes peanut butter made by manufacturers for own use in candy. 4 Formerly titled Salted Peanuts. 5 I ncludes peanut butter made by manufacturers for own use in cookies and sandwiches, but excludes peanut butter used in candy. 6 All crushings regardless of grade. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
1
193
PEANUTS AND PEANUT OIL Shelled Peanuts (Raw Basis) Used in Primary Products, by Type
In Thousands of Pounds
Year
------------------------- Virginia ------------------------- ------------------------------ Runner ------------------------------ ------------------------- Spanish ------------------------Snack Peanut Snack Peanut Snack Peanut Peanuts Butter3 Peanuts Butter3 Peanuts Butter3 Candy2 Total Candy2 Total Candy2 Total
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051
24,158 48,428 36,178 23,173 19,101 26,640 26,930 23,580 25,468
91,882 64,274 80,309 59,228 99,401 57,864 100,384 73,926 100,650 102,050 97,046 106,573 75,100 77,018 68,257 88,053 70,169 112,147
193,166 182,100 196,935 200,804 225,072 233,356 183,226 181,559 209,486
318,924 302,791 321,838 315,467 320,304 303,668 312,192 328,560 349,437
176,851 206,718 234,486 278,440 247,739 250,079 257,259 333,198 367,548
634,387 676,839 670,705 690,564 643,229 702,454 734,844 805,852 823,359
1,149,347 1,206,946 1,244,748 1,300,393 1,227,156 1,269,776 1,323,846 1,481,457 1,561,065
17,764 19,798 22,161 16,313 16,205 19,421 15,110 13,843 14,781
21,369 19,581 15,919 15,297 13,127 13,791 12,555 13,133 12,868
28,870 24,163 16,137 7,614 7,960 9,900 16,667 7,732 1,611
69,791 64,580 55,137 40,208 38,135 43,724 44,981 35,122 29,397
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes peanut butter made by manufacturers for own use in candy. 3 I ncludes peanut butter made by manufacturers for own use in cookies and sandwiches, but excludes peanut butter used in candy. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA) 1
Production, Consumption, Stocks and Foreign Trade of Peanut Oil in the U.S. Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
--------------- Production --------------- -------------- Consumption -------------- -------------- Stocks Dec. 31 -------------
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
Preliminary.
2
Crude
Refined
In Refining
144.3 172.9 262.9 222.1 278.5 267.7 180.7 135.7 180.6
104.0 118.3 195.9 206.3 179.1 166.3 115.8 91.0 115.1
111.6 123.7 238.9 258.9 291.9 W W W W
Forecast.
In End Products
Crude
121.6 180.1 260.4 277.3 282.5 277.6 203.8 181.9 192.2
42.6 47.2 19.7 23.1 8.2 52.9 23.0 40.3 15.4
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 Preliminary.
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
6.6 30.3 9.6 19.5 ----------------
8.8 4.3 5.8 5.5 ----------------
In Millions of Pounds
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
29.2 19.9 16.0 16.2 35.2 17.3 24.8 21.7 12.6 14.4
31.9 16.1 14.5 18.2 32.1 15.7 25.5 16.6 15.7 13.1
36.8 18.8 14.3 15.8 27.4 20.1 32.8 19.4 13.0 9.9
36.8 17.9 13.0 18.2 31.9 15.3 28.5 20.5 14.7 11.3
36.7 13.3 10.8 16.4 30.4 12.4 33.8 20.0 11.8 13.3
33.3 15.9 10.0 20.7 28.0 19.1 24.3 23.2 13.7 14.6
31.4 9.9 9.5 20.8 24.1 16.3 22.6 19.8 10.7 8.9
31.5 12.1 6.3 17.8 28.8 16.7 27.7 17.3 9.8 14.5
27.1 6.1 5.8 16.3 21.5 12.9 27.2 18.3 5.8 11.3
21.1 12.2 6.9 13.5 25.4 17.1 26.5 24.1 10.0 15.3
20.6 11.6 13.6 22.6 16.4 13.8 24.9 15.6 11.9 16.4
21.8 14.0 13.9 22.7 15.2 25.6 20.2 13.2 12.6 17.7
358.2 167.7 134.5 219.2 316.3 202.4 319.0 229.6 142.4 160.8
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
In Dollars Per Short Ton
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
170.00 210.00 161.00 98.00 118.00 115.00 NA 147.10 100.38 105.50
146.13 210.00 100.00 103.00 118.00 111.25 130.00 161.00 99.25 102.50
172.67 210.00 103.75 103.00 118.00 100.00 122.50 163.25 93.50 100.88
221.00 210.00 105.00 104.00 142.50 102.50 118.50 163.35 93.25
228.13 210.00 102.50 104.75 120.00 100.00 114.25 168.75 99.25
225.00 210.00 91.25 110.00 118.00 105.00 124.00 200.40 112.00
233.75 210.00 94.50 115.00 110.75 110.00 125.00 226.00 122.75
222.00 210.00 93.75 115.00 112.50 105.00 135.00 237.50 137.25
235.00 210.00 100.00 119.60 NA NA 135.00 204.00 145.25
220.00 210.00 100.00 118.00 123.50 130.00 135.75 199.33 140.83
213.00 207.50 105.00 118.00 130.50 135.00 130.00 143.33 132.50
210.00 205.00 102.50 118.00 126.25 136.88 130.00 133.00 109.00
232.00 209.60 104.94 108.15 121.64 113.69 127.27 178.92 115.43 102.96
Preliminary.
194
Exports
3.0 3.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 3.5 1.8 2.4 3.7
Jan.
Average Price of Peanut Meal 50% Southeast Mills Year
Refined
Imports for Consumption
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Production of Crude Peanut Oil in the United States
1
In Millions of Pounds
NA = Not available.
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
PEANUTS AND PEANUT OIL
-----
Cents Per Pound Received by Farmers, U.S. (Sept. 1930 - date)
Average Price Received by Producers for Peanuts (in the Shell) in the U.S.
In Cents Per Pound
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average1
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062
NQ 23.3 NQ 25.7 NQ 24.1 NQ NQ 19.0 16.9
27.6 27.1 26.8 27.0 27.7 24.9 17.9 18.3 19.2 17.4
25.8 25.4 26.3 25.4 26.5 22.8 17.9 18.5 20.1 17.5
27.1 25.0 24.6 24.1 26.1 21.0 18.0 18.4 20.3 17.6
28.1 30.7 27.2 21.8 27.3 19.5 17.5 19.6 18.3 17.7
24.3 24.7 NQ 14.9 31.4 13.5 19.1 20.6 18.9 17.6
NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ 10.7 19.6 18.9 18.6 18.2
NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ 22.6 18.6 18.5
NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ 18.4 19.8 18.0
NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ 19.6 20.6 17.8
NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ 17.7 20.3 17.6
NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ 17.4 16.0
26.6 26.0 26.2 23.2 27.8 19.5 18.8 19.2 18.5 17.6
1 Weighted average by sales. 2 Preliminarly. U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
NQ = No quote.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service,
Average Price of Domestic Crude Peanut Oil (in Tanks) F.O.B. Southeast Mills Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Cents Per Pound
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
41.50 49.63 45.40 40.40 34.63 36.25 NA 61.60 55.00 45.50
39.20 51.00 45.00 41.00 35.50 37.00 42.00 63.25 55.00 45.50
40.75 51.25 44.25 35.40 36.40 37.00 43.67 64.50 55.67 45.00
43.50 51.60 44.00 33.00 37.25 35.00 45.75 65.00 56.00 42.50
43.88 51.00 39.75 32.50 37.00 28.00 46.00 61.67 55.00
44.75 51.00 34.75 31.60 35.90 27.50 47.00 60.00 50.00
45.00 50.00 35.20 33.00 34.00 27.00 50.25 60.00 50.00
46.20 47.20 35.00 36.25 33.00 27.00 52.75 56.50 53.25
47.88 45.50 37.75 36.00 33.00 30.00 56.60 NA 52.50
48.06 44.00 39.00 35.63 33.00 34.00 58.25 56.00 52.38
48.00 43.75 38.75 35.00 34.00 35.20 60.00 53.75 52.25
47.25 43.88 38.00 34.90 34.00 36.25 60.67 55.00 50.06
44.66 48.32 39.74 35.39 34.81 32.52 51.18 59.75 53.09 44.63
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
195
Pepper The pepper plant is a perennial climbing shrub that originated in India and Sri Lanka. Pepper is considered the world’s most important spice and has been used to flavor foods for over 3,000 years. Pepper was once considered so valuable that it was used to ransom Rome from Attila the Hun. Black pepper alone accounts for nearly 35% of the world’s spice trade. Unlike many other popular herbs and spices, pepper can only be cultivated in tropical climates. The pepper plant produces a berry called a peppercorn. Both black and white pepper are obtained from the same plant. The colors of pepper are determined by the maturity of the berry at harvest and by different processing methods. Black pepper is picked when the berries are still green and immature. The peppercorns are then dried in the sun until they turn black. White pepper is picked when the berries are fully ripe and bright red. The red peppercorns are then soaked, washed to remove the skin of the berry, and dried to produce a white to yellowish-white peppercorn. Black pepper has a slightly hotter flavor and stronger aroma than white pepper. Piperine, an alkaloid of pyridine, is the active ingredient in pepper that makes it hot. Black pepper oil is obtained from crushed berries using solvent extraction. Black pepper oil is used in the treatment of pain, chills, flu, muscular aches, and in some perfumes. It is also helpful in promoting digestion in the colon. The world’s key pepper varieties are known by their
place of origin. Popular types of pepper include Lampong Black and Muntok White from Indonesia, Brazilian Black, and Malabar Black and Tellicherry from India. Prices – The average monthly price for black pepper in 2004 fell sharply by –11.6% to 75.8 cents per pound, which was an 11-year low and less than 30% of the record high of 254.5 cents seen in 1999. The average monthly price for white pepper in 2004 also fell sharply by –12.8% to 121.5 cents per pound, which was only 34% of the record of 356.5 cents seen in 1998. Trade – The world’s largest exporters of pepper in 2003 were Vietnam (with 74,100 metric tons of exports), Indonesia (51,546 metric tons), Brazil (38,972 metric tons), Malaysia (18,346 metric tons), and India (15,318 metric tons). US imports of black pepper in 2000, the latest reporting year for the series, fell –8.6% to 43,479 metric tons from 47,591 metric tons in 1999, which was a record high. The primary source of US imports of black pepper was Indonesia, which accounted for 36% of US imports, followed by India with 25%, Brazil with 18%, and Malaysia with 10%. US imports of white pepper in 2000 rose +7.7% to a record high of 7,311 metric tons. The primary source of US imports of white pepper was Indonesia, which accounted for 87% of US imports, followed by 3% shares each from Singapore, Malaysia and China.
World Exports of Pepper (Black and White) and Prices in the United States
In Metric Tons
-------- New York Spot Prices (Cents Per Pound) ----------------------------------------------- Exports (In Metric Tons) ---------------------------------------- ------ Indonesian -----IndoMadaMalaySri Lampong Muntok Brazil India nesia g a sca r si a Mexico Lanka Vietnam Black White
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 1
22,158 24,178 13,962 17,249 19,617 20,469 36,975 38,230 38,972
Preliminary.
2
25,270 47,211 35,403 32,859 35,635 19,125 19,641 21,066 15,319
Extra bold.
57,781 36,849 33,386 38,723 36,293 47,502 53,432 63,214 51,546
1,274 1,570 894 339 619 588 811 880 863
14,869 28,124 29,000 18,717 21,804 23,684 25,537 22,840 18,346
3,085 4,200 4,210 3,365 4,026 4,534 4,658 4,344 3,861
2,082 2,612 3,485 5,493 3,754 4,855 2,161 7,915 6,676
17,900 25,300 24,713 15,000 34,800 36,400 57,000 78,400 74,100
Year
1
116.8 114.8 206.7 239.5 254.5 228.1 116.2 92.9 85.8 75.6
116.8 114.8 206.7 239.5 254.5 228.1 116.2 92.9 85.8 75.6
150.9 140.0 225.8 286.6 296.3 282.6 179.3 127.8 128.8 118.8
In Metric Tons
------------------------------------------ B lack P ep p er ----------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- Wh ite P ep p er ------------------------------------IndoMalaySi ngaSri IndoMalaySi ngaBrazil India nesi a si a pore Lanka Total Brazil Chi na nesi a si a pore Total
15,069 6,601 4,580 8,215 3,165 4,267 4,328 5,806 7,093 7,853
P reliminary.
196
182.3 178.9 304.6 356.5 334.9 227.1 132.6 120.6 139.3 120.9
--------- Indian --------Malabar TelliBlack cherry2
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
U n ited S tates Imp o rts o f U n g ro u n d P ep p er fro m S p ecified C o u n tries
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1
116.8 114.8 206.7 239.5 254.5 228.1 116.2 92.9 85.8 75.6
Brazilian Black
2,308 9,892 21,985 21,097 10,836 18,350 23,404 15,540 24,931 10,981
11,330 20,768 7,666 11,877 19,630 17,213 13,610 13,045 8,429 15,713
8,154 2,073 209 829 268 1,084 2,203 422 2,392 4,148
391 52 ---90 30 101 678 185 525 306
396 310 539 386 327 411 285 578 441 516
38,860 40,590 35,969 43,011 34,465 41,602 45,319 36,508 47,591 43,479
2 51 322 312 414 519 75 32 32 15
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
7 2 114 756 280 54 522 108 451 210
4,938 5,089 4,304 3,974 4,037 4,370 3,755 4,571 5,202 6,345
37 29 137 228 164 150 199 195 420 185
96 261 363 302 211 391 750 203 342 215
5,174 5,544 5,481 6,102 5,266 5,765 5,751 5,393 6,789 7,311
PEPPER
-----
Cents Per Pound Brazilian Black, New York (Dec. 1919 - date)
Average Black Pepper in New York (Braz ilian) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
99.3 138.6 199.4 222.5 260.0 157.5 85.0 93.8 78.0 73.0
103.3 151.8 205.5 225.8 256.3 146.3 80.0 89.0 75.5 73.0
109.2 149.0 243.8 252.5 246.0 144.0 81.4 88.5 75.5 73.8
108.3 161.8 262.8 248.0 260.0 150.0 100.5 85.5 75.4 75.2
111.2 173.4 262.8 252.5 265.0 143.8 101.0 83.8 77.3 75.5
109.5 193.8 247.5 250.0 265.0 123.0 92.0 89.0 78.0 77.0
108.0 229.5 253.0 229.0 263.8 97.3 84.8 90.0 76.8 77.0
119.8 255.0 253.8 249.3 252.5 87.0 86.8 86.6 75.0 77.0
126.5 251.3 246.3 263.8 205.0 90.0 93.5 83.5 75.0 77.6
127.5 264.8 243.0 282.0 167.5 89.3 103.5 81.6 74.2 78.0
127.6 266.3 231.3 297.5 147.5 81.6 106.0 80.0 73.3 77.0
128.0 245.0 225.0 281.0 149.0 85.3 100.8 78.0 73.0
114.8 206.7 239.5 254.5 228.1 116.2 92.9 85.8 75.6 75.8
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Average White Pepper in New York (Indonesian)1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
174.5 256.0 348.0 361.3 295.0 159.0 111.3 152.4 118.0 119.0
177.5 264.5 346.3 355.0 293.8 151.3 100.3 148.8 118.0 118.0
181.6 255.0 362.5 365.0 264.0 144.0 95.6 150.0 125.8 118.0
179.5 250.0 390.0 355.0 253.8 133.8 108.8 150.0 130.0 116.4
172.6 241.0 393.0 352.5 246.3 130.0 108.0 142.6 130.0 115.0
164.8 248.8 358.8 335.0 242.0 127.0 105.0 133.0 125.0 115.0
154.0 280.3 354.0 310.0 226.3 122.5 104.5 133.0 127.0 115.0
169.6 324.0 356.3 313.8 227.5 129.6 118.8 138.2 120.5 115.0
181.5 332.5 348.8 325.0 205.0 128.0 130.0 137.5 119.0 115.2
193.5 362.0 340.0 327.0 171.3 125.5 154.0 133.6 113.8 115.0
191.8 433.8 340.0 316.3 150.0 120.0 157.5 127.5 109.5 115.0
205.8 407.5 340.0 303.0 150.0 120.0 153.0 125.0 114.6
178.9 304.6 356.5 334.9 227.1 132.6 120.6 139.3 120.9 116.1
Muntok White.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
197
Petroleum Crude oil is petroleum that is acquired directly from the ground. Crude oil was formed millions of years ago from the remains of tiny aquatic plants and animals that lived in ancient seas. Ancient societies such as the Persians, 10th century Sumatrans, and pre-Columbian Indians believed that crude oil had medicinal benefits. Around 4,000 BC in Mesopotamia, bitumen, a tarry crude, was used as caulking for ships, as a setting for jewels and mosaics, and as an adhesive to secure weapon handles. The walls of Babylon and the famed pyramids were held together with bitumen, and Egyptians used it for embalming. During the 19th century in America, an oil find was often met with dismay. Pioneers who dug wells to find water or brine, were disappointed when they struck oil. It wasn’t until 1854, with the invention of the kerosene lamp, that the first large-scale demand for petroleum emerged. Crude oil is a relatively abundant commodity. The world has produced approximately 650 billion barrels of oil, but another trillion barrels of proved reserves have yet to be extracted. Crude oil was the world’s first trillion-dollar industry and accounts for the single largest product in world trade. Futures and options on crude oil trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) and at the International Petroleum Exchange in London (IPE). The Nymex trades two main types of crude oil: light sweet crude oil and Brent crude oil. The light sweet futures contract calls for the delivery of 1,000 barrels of crude oil in Cushing, Oklahoma. Light sweet crude is preferred by refiners because of its low sulfur content and relatively high yield of high-value products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel. The Brent blend crude is based on a light, sweet North Sea crude oil. Brent blend crude production is approximately 500,000 barrels per day, and is shipped from Sullom Voe in the Shetland Islands. Prices – NYMEX crude oil prices on the nearest-futures chart in 2005 extended the rally that started in 2002 and posted a record high of $70.85 in early September 2005. Oil prices rallied in the first half of the year on strong demand, flat production, and speculative buying. Crude oil demand in 2005 remained very strong, due in large part to torrid GDP growth in China, and reached a record high of 86.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2005. Meanwhile, production during the year was relatively flat with OPEC production averaging 30.0 million barrels per day, and non-
World Production of Crude Petroleum Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052
Canada
China
Indonesia
1,837 1,893 1,981 1,907 1,977 2,029 2,171 2,306 2,398 2,343
3,131 3,200 3,198 3,206 3,249 3,300 3,390 3,409 3,485 3,617
1,547 1,520 1,518 1,472 1,423 1,340 1,249 1,151 1,095 1,069
I ncludes lease condensate.
198
1
Preliminary.
OPEC production averaging about 48.0 million barrels per day. Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf of Mexico on August 29, 2005. Crude oil prices initially surged on the devastation caused by Katrina, but that turned out to be the year’s peak as oil prices then sold off sharply in September through December. Oil prices were able to fall in late 2005, despite the shut-down of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, because of a small drop in demand and a large increase in petroleum imports from overseas, which succeeded in keeping US petroleum inventories at comfortable levels. Hurricane Rita hit the Texas coast on September 24, 2005, and caused further damage and shutdowns of oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Crude oil prices stabilized in December 2005 and then started to rally in January 2006 as concern grew about reduced Nigerian oil production due to rebel attacks and about the increasingly tense standoff with Iran about its nuclear research intentions. Supply – World crude oil production in 2004, the latest full reporting year, rose +4.8% yr/yr to 72.501 million barrels per day, which was a new record high. The world’s largest oil producers are Saudi Arabia (with 12.6% of world production in 2004), Russia (12.1%), the United States (7.5%), Iran (5.5%), China (4.8%), and Mexico (4.7%). US crude oil production in 2004 fell –4.4% yr/yr to 5.430 million barrels per day, which was the lowest level in at least the last 3 decades. Alaskan production in 2004 fell –6.8% yr/yr to 908,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since 1977 and less than one-half of the peak level of 2.107 million barrels per day seen in 1988. Demand – US demand for crude oil in 2004 rose +1.1% yr/yr to 15.475 million barrels per day, which was a new record high. Most of that demand went for US refinery production into products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, aviation fuel, heating oil, kerosene, asphalt, and lubricants. Trade – The US is highly dependent on imports of crude oil to meet its energy needs. US imports in 2004 rose +3.6% yr/yr to 10.010 million barrels per day, which was a new record high. US imports of petroleum products in 2004 rose +17.6% to 3.057 million barrels per day, imports of distillate fuel oil fell –3.7% yr/yr to 320,000 barrels per day, and imports of residual fuel oil rose +13.5% yr/yr to 371,000 barrels per day.
In Thousands of Barrels Per Day
Iran
Kuwait
Mexico
Nigeria
Russia
Saudi Arabia
United Kingdom
United States
Venezuela
World Total
3,686 3,664 3,634 3,557 3,696 3,724 3,444 3,743 4,001 4,146
2,062 2,083 2,085 1,898 2,079 1,998 1,894 2,178 2,376 2,515
2,855 3,023 3,070 2,906 3,012 3,157 3,177 3,371 3,383 3,330
2,188 2,317 2,153 2,130 2,165 2,256 2,118 2,241 2,509 2,614
5,850 5,920 2,854 6,079 6,479 6,917 7,408 8,132 8,805 9,007
8,218 8,562 8,389 7,833 8,404 8,031 7,634 8,848 9,101 9,560
2,568 2,517 2,616 2,684 2,275 2,282 2,292 2,093 1,845 1,649
6,465 6,452 6,252 5,881 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,173
3,053 3,315 3,167 2,826 3,155 3,010 2,604 2,335 2,557 2,570
63,711 65,690 66,921 65,848 68,342 67,942 66,784 69,154 72,488 73,544
2
Estimate.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
PETROLEUM Refiner Sales Prices of Residual Fuel Oil Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
55.3 64.5 51.8 86.6 84.3 84.6
59.2 61.9 52.2 97.2 80.6 88.1
53.2 57.2 53.5 98.1 76.3 95.1
52.3 57.3 59.4 77.3 75.7 103.4
58.9 58.2 63.5 74.9 80.7 109.0
65.8 53.0 61.4 71.9 80.5 108.6
65.1 50.0 63.2 74.5 78.2 116.8
61.5 50.4 67.4 75.4 81.8 129.2
71.9 51.2 67.8 72.0 90.3 138.4
73.7 44.8 72.7 70.7 91.5 142.7
71.3 40.5 73.6 76.7 96.6 134.3
66.6 40.0 73.9 79.3 87.2
62.7 51.7 64.0 80.4 83.6 113.7
Sulfur 1% or less, excluding taxes.
1
Preliminary.
Refiner Sales Prices of No. 2 Fuel Oil Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
84.1 90.3 57.6 90.0 97.0 131.1
92.4 82.5 57.8 108.6 93.0 134.1
79.6 76.3 64.5 105.3 93.6 153.7
76.4 79.2 68.3 83.0 95.4 155.4
78.4 82.7 68.4 75.8 103.0 144.4
80.3 79.3 66.0 76.9 101.9 159.7
81.0 72.8 68.9 78.9 109.5 164.7
88.3 77.0 71.3 83.6 118.8 177.8
100.9 79.0 78.3 77.3 127.0 198.2
98.8 68.5 79.6 84.2 147.9 205.8
100.4 60.6 74.8 84.2 139.4 174.2
94.1 56.6 80.8 88.6 129.9
88.6 75.6 69.4 88.1 113.0 163.6
Excluding taxes.
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Refiner Sales Prices of No. 2 Diesel Fuel Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
77.7 90.7 54.6 89.2 96.2 131.0
85.2 85.8 56.7 107.8 96.8 139.3
85.1 78.1 66.6 102.5 101.0 159.1
79.9 82.6 70.9 86.4 107.6 164.0
81.4 89.8 70.6 79.2 112.1 152.4
82.4 85.3 68.2 81.0 107.1 167.1
83.6 75.5 71.0 83.7 115.4 171.4
92.1 80.8 75.7 88.8 124.4 189.7
105.0 84.1 83.4 80.7 133.0 213.0
104.0 71.4 85.7 87.0 153.0 232.8
103.2 61.6 78.9 86.5 142.2 182.7
93.8 54.7 82.0 89.2 127.2
89.8 78.4 72.4 88.3 118.0 173.0
Excluding taxes.
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Refiner Sales Prices of Kerosine-Type Jet Fuel Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
80.4 88.2 57.2 89.8 99.7 131.7
83.6 86.8 57.1 103.1 100.0 137.9
83.4 80.5 63.9 102.4 101.4 157.8
77.4 79.5 69.1 82.3 103.3 165.4
77.9 83.5 69.6 75.1 114.9 155.9
79.9 82.6 67.8 76.9 108.5 164.4
83.6 75.9 71.4 81.3 115.6 171.3
87.9 77.6 73.8 86.2 126.9 185.1
105.1 80.7 81.5 80.8 132.6 206.6
104.4 68.5 84.5 83.7 155.1 235.1
105.1 61.9 75.1 86.5 145.2 181.5
99.0 55.3 79.9 90.7 132.8
88.0 76.3 71.6 87.1 119.7 172.1
Excluding taxes.
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Refiner Sales Prices of Propane Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
49.4 86.4 37.4 60.5 71.7 79.5
60.2 66.9 36.4 72.7 70.1 79.0
52.9 60.1 39.7 69.2 61.9 86.2
48.8 58.6 41.6 53.8 60.4 85.7
49.3 56.2 40.8 54.3 65.5 81.7
53.9 48.7 37.9 57.1 66.1 82.6
54.8 43.6 37.5 55.9 72.2 86.2
60.3 45.6 41.5 58.6 83.0 93.2
65.9 46.4 47.1 56.7 80.4 107.8
64.3 46.1 48.9 59.7 88.6 111.9
63.3 41.6 49.4 58.7 88.3 103.5
76.7 38.1 53.3 64.8 83.5
59.5 54.1 43.1 60.7 74.3 90.7
Consumer Grade, Excluding taxes.
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Supply and Disposition of Crude Oil in the United States
In Thousands of Barrels Per Day
------------------------------------------- Supply -------------------------------------------- Field Production -Yearly Average
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Unaccounted ---------- Stock ---------- ------ Disposition ------ ------------ Ending Stocks -------------------------- Imports --------------Withdraw al3 Refinery Other Total for Crude 2 Alaskan Total SPR Inputs Primary Other SPR2 Other Exports Total SPR2 Domestic Oil -------------------------------------------------------- In Thousands of Barrels Per Day -------------------------------------------------------- ------- In Millions of Barrels -------
6,252 5,881 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,121
1,175 1,050 970 963 984 974 908 864
8,706 8,731 9,071 9,328 9,140 9,665 10,010 10,017
0 8 8 11 16 0 77 38
8,706 8,722 9,062 9,318 9,124 9,665 10,088 10,056
115 191 155 117 110 54 143 195
22 -11 -73 26 134 108 102 25
52 -107 3 73 -94 -24 46 101
14,889 14,804 15,067 15,128 14,947 15,304 15,475 15,204
110 118 50 20 9 12 27 41
895 852 826 862 877 907 961 1,008
571 567 541 550 599 638 676 685
324 284 286 312 278 269 286 323
Preliminary. 2 Strategic Petroleum Reserve. 3 A negative number indicates a decrease in stocks and a positive number indicates an increase. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
199
PETROLEUM Crude Petroleum Refinery Operations Ratio1 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Percent of Capacity
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
90.6 89.3 93.3 90.4 85.7 90.2 87.7 87.2 89.1 91.3
89.1 87.3 91.3 90.0 86.4 90.5 86.6 87.4 88.8 90.6
90.6 90.7 94.4 90.9 89.8 89.4 87.9 90.5 88.5 90.2
93.7 92.6 96.4 94.6 92.6 94.9 93.0 94.1 92.5 92.6
94.4 97.3 97.1 93.9 94.7 96.4 91.5 95.8 95.6 94.1
95.4 97.7 98.9 93.5 96.2 95.6 93.1 94.7 97.5 96.7
93.9 97.1 99.2 94.9 96.9 93.9 93.5 94.0 96.8 94.0
95.0 98.6 99.8 95.5 95.9 93.3 92.9 95.0 97.1 92.1
95.5 99.7 95.0 94.1 94.3 92.2 90.4 93.1 90.1 83.9
94.6 96.7 89.7 91.1 92.4 92.0 87.5 92.4 90.2 81.6
94.7 95.6 94.7 92.0 92.7 92.2 92.6 93.6 94.4 89.0
94.3 97.2 95.1 90.4 94.0 90.2 91.1 93.0 95.0 89.0
93.5 95.0 95.4 92.7 92.6 92.6 90.7 92.6 93.0 90.4
Based on the ration of the daily average crude runs to stills to the rated capacity of refineries per day. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
Crude Oil Refinery Inputs in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
2
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Barrels Per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
13,708 13,632 14,313 14,442 13,779 14,789 14,487 14,338 14,782 15,201
13,529 13,425 14,034 14,309 14,028 14,813 14,306 14,381 14,706 15,110
13,755 14,047 14,590 14,498 14,613 14,649 14,526 14,933 14,787 15,140
14,263 14,283 14,961 15,094 15,053 15,536 15,325 15,575 15,541 15,489
14,401 15,083 15,104 14,973 15,494 15,763 15,301 15,910 15,992 15,892
14,535 15,139 15,368 14,959 15,643 15,650 15,397 15,620 16,240 16,404
14,319 14,958 15,496 15,237 15,819 15,369 15,430 15,546 16,142 15,905
14,423 15,217 15,660 15,299 15,640 15,259 15,338 15,693 16,142 15,624
14,483 15,297 14,854 15,107 15,407 15,005 14,861 15,446 14,980 13,974
14,276 14,790 14,001 14,589 15,029 15,002 14,303 15,342 14,941 13,646
14,276 14,654 14,769 14,704 15,023 15,001 15,155 15,455 15,664 15,024
14,194 14,898 14,832 14,410 15,232 14,688 14,900 15,345 15,750 15,033
14,195 14,662 14,889 14,804 15,067 15,128 14,947 15,304 15,472 15,204
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production of Major Refined Petroleum Products in Continental United States Gasoline
Je t Fuel
Kerosene
Natural Gas Plant Liquids
2,769 2,826 2,865 2,896 2,664 2,913 2,983 2,992 3,013 3,014
554.5 567.3 554.6 571.3 536.6 558.2 552.3 543.1 566.3 561.5
22.8 23.9 28.6 24.4 20.4 26.7 20.8 20.4 23.2 23.6
669.8 663.3 639.9 675.1 649.4 680.3 686.5 626.7 662.7 623.9
---------- Fuel Oil ---------Year
Asphalt
Aviation Gasoline
Distillate
Residual
167.8 177.0 179.7 184.3 180.6 177.3 179.9 181.0 185.6 186.0
7.3 7.2 7.3 7.5 6.2 6.5 6.4 5.8 6.2 6.1
1,213.6 1,238.0 1,248.6 1,240.8 1,189.9 1,348.4 1,309.8 1,355.5 1,397.6 1,441.4
265.5 258.3 278.0 254.8 234.3 262.8 218.8 241.8 238.0 227.9
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
2
Gas processing plants.
3
Refineries.
In Millions of Barrels
Lubricants
63.3 65.9 67.2 66.8 60.9 64.1 63.3 60.6 62.0 60.8
------------ Liquified Gasses -----------at at Total L.P.G.2 L.P.G.3
789.1 799.4 771.2 811.0 788.0 810.1 822.5 766.1 797.2 736.9
546.7 547.3 526.3 564.5 545.5 569.1 576.8 526.4 561.3 527.2
242.5 252.2 244.9 246.5 242.5 241.0 245.7 239.6 235.9 209.8
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Stocks of Petroleum and Products in the United States on January 1
In Millions of Barrels
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Refined Products ----------------------------------------------------------------------------Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1
Crude Petroleum
Strategic Reserve
Total
849.7 868.1 894.9 851.7 826.2 862.2 876.7 906.3 961.9 1,007.8
565.8 563.4 571.4 567.2 540.7 550.2 599.1 638.4 675.6 684.5
452.6 451.6 407.1 407.1 415.7 445.6 425.1 413.1 405.6 403.6
----- Fuel Oil ----Aviation Asphalt Gasoline Distillate Residual
20.5 22.1 21.4 16.9 25.0 20.6 21.3 19.3 22.1 21.0
2.3 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2
126.7 138.4 156.1 125.5 118.0 144.5 134.1 136.8 126.0 136.0
1 Preliminary. 2 I ncludes ethane & ethylene at plants and refineries. U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
200
45.9 40.5 44.9 35.8 36.2 41.0 31.3 37.8 42.4 37.3 3
Finished Gasoline
Je t Fuel
Kerosene
Liduified Gases2
157.0 166.4 171.8 154.1 153.0 161.5 161.9 146.8 143.1 134.8
39.9 44.0 44.7 40.5 44.5 42.0 39.2 38.7 40.2 41.8
7.0 7.3 6.9 4.9 4.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 4.9 5.1
86.2 89.5 115.1 89.3 82.5 120.9 105.7 94.4 111.0 117.6
I ncludes oxygenated.
Lubri- --- Motor Gasoline --cants Total Finished3
12.7 12.9 13.2 11.8 12.1 13.8 12.0 10.0 10.4 9.7
202 213 219 196 207 214 199
Source: Energy I nformation Administration,
157 166 172 154 153 161 162 147 143 135
PETROLEUM Stocks of Crude Petroleum in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
894.9 849.7 868.1 894.4 851.6 826.2 862.2 876.7 907.3 961.3
894.7 865.9 884.3 896.6 852.4 836.0 874.9 873.2 912.8 968.3
892.9 862.1 885.7 897.4 855.2 824.2 887.4 870.3 931.2 985.6
888.8 877.6 899.8 908.0 866.5 850.8 895.0 880.8 949.4 1,007.0
889.7 883.9 914.6 902.3 873.2 873.0 891.3 891.0 961.5 1,022.5
889.7 890.5 916.1 914.8 864.1 871.7 898.3 888.6 965.8 1,026.5
898.9 885.3 896.4 902.8 859.5 851.5 894.1 893.1 967.2 1,025.6
891.3 873.0 902.6 906.0 852.6 856.6 882.8 897.3 960.1 1,018.5
890.8 864.2 893.5 889.1 858.7 851.6 878.5 897.8 947.6 1,012.1
875.8 866.6 873.0 878.0 848.2 854.1 857.8 911.1 943.3 1,000.8
881.5 879.3 897.4 875.7 842.4 858.4 881.1 925.5 957.0 1,006.9
869.1 886.9 906.2 866.2 833.9 859.5 884.0 914.8 961.0 1,007.4
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration; U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production of Crude Petroleum in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Barrels
Jan.
In Thousands of Barrels Per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
6,495 6,402 6,541 5,963 5,784 5,799 5,848 5,785 5,570 5,394
6,577 6,514 6,476 5,966 5,852 5,780 5,871 5,791 5,556 5,469
6,571 6,452 6,408 5,883 5,918 5,880 5,883 5,817 5,607 5,498
6,444 6,441 6,483 5,887 5,854 5,863 5,859 5,774 5,527 5,488
6,394 6,474 6,347 5,875 5,847 5,829 5,924 5,733 5,548 5,494
6,458 6,442 6,267 5,760 5,823 5,766 5,915 5,701 5,398 5,428
6,338 6,409 6,194 5,798 5,739 5,749 5,770 5,526 5,458 5,244
6,360 6,347 6,203 5,780 5,789 5,725 5,811 5,595 5,333 5,273
6,482 6,486 5,789 5,804 5,758 5,709 5,411 5,683 5,062 4,214
6,481 6,467 6,143 5,947 5,809 5,746 5,363 5,635 5,156 4,248
6,476 6,459 6,140 5,960 5,833 5,881 5,597 5,560 5,396 4,736
6,506 6,531 6,043 5,959 5,855 5,887 5,699 5,579 5,413 4,975
6,465 6,452 6,252 5,881 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,122
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
U.S. Foreign Trade of Petroleum and Products
In Thousands of Barrels Per Day
Year
----- Exports ----- ---------------------------- Imports ---------------------------PetroPetroleum Distillate Residual Net leum Crude Products Fuel Oil Fuel Oil Imports3 Total2 Products
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
785 764 815 859 857 1,001 950 1,003 942 949
631 613 661 717 748 885 861 904 843 855
4,178 4,674 5,107 5,843 5,894 5,782 6,083 6,787 7,063 7,230
2,045 2,004 2,295 2,217 2,123 1,844 1,805 1,833 1,933 1,605
1 Preliminary. 2 I ncludes crude oil. U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
3
247 255 302 306 278 205 216 184 203 193
669 565 644 629 504 453 375 373 314 187
5,439 5,914 6,587 7,202 7,161 6,626 6,938 7,618 8,054 7,886
Equals imports minus exports.
------ Exports ------ ---------------------------- Imports ---------------------------PetroPetroleum Distillate Residual Net leum Crude Products Fuel Oil Fuel Oil Imports3 Year Total2 Products
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
981 1,003 945 940 1,040 971 984 1,027 1,048 1,174
871 7,508 896 8,225 835 8,706 822 8,731 990 9,071 951 9,328 975 9,140 1,014 9,665 1,021 10,088 1,133 10,056
1,971 1,936 2,002 2,122 2,389 2,543 2,390 2,599 3,057 3,471
In Dollars Per Barrel
Year
1
248 194 275 237 352 295 249 327 426 535
8,498 9,158 9,764 9,912 10,419 10,900 10,546 11,237 12,097 12,353
Source: Energy I nformation Administration,
Domestic First Purchase Price of Crude Petroleum at Wells1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
230 228 210 250 295 344 267 333 325 323
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
15.43 21.76 13.48 8.57 23.53 24.58 15.89 28.35 30.35 40.18
15.54 19.38 12.16 8.60 25.48 25.27 16.92 31.85 31.21 42.06
17.63 17.85 11.53 10.76 26.19 23.02 20.04 30.09 32.86 47.39
19.58 16.64 11.64 12.82 23.20 23.41 22.14 25.46 33.23 47.23
17.94 17.24 11.49 13.92 25.58 24.06 23.51 24.96 36.07 44.00
16.94 15.90 10.00 14.39 27.62 23.43 22.59 26.83 34.53 49.87
17.63 15.91 10.46 16.12 26.81 22.94 23.51 27.53 36.54 53.31
18.29 16.21 10.18 17.58 27.91 23.08 24.76 27.94 40.10 58.79
19.93 16.44 11.28 20.03 29.72 22.37 26.08 25.23 40.62 59.60
21.09 17.68 11.32 19.71 29.65 18.73 25.29 26.52 46.28 56.97
20.20 16.84 9.65 21.35 30.36 16.49 23.38 27.21 42.81 53.17
21.34 15.06 8.05 22.55 24.46 15.54 25.29 28.54 38.22
18.46 17.23 10.87 15.56 26.72 21.84 22.51 27.54 36.90 50.23
Buyers posted prices.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
201
PETROLEUM
Volume of Trading of Crude Oil Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
2,260.1 1,949.9 2,468.3 2,533.6 3,139.0 3,035.0 3,481.1 4,552.9 4,117.8 4,352.1
1,928.3 1,973.7 2,208.3 2,326.0 3,076.6 2,855.2 3,150.4 4,039.2 3,887.3 4,032.4
2,399.3 2,086.6 2,902.8 3,767.7 3,380.2 3,448.7 3,790.4 4,150.7 4,495.3 5,720.8
2,489.9 2,033.7 2,451.1 3,166.8 2,578.9 3,312.1 4,315.3 3,354.8 4,326.0 5,404.3
2,161.3 2,134.9 2,603.6 3,037.9 3,001.8 3,468.5 4,317.4 3,329.1 4,250.2 5,044.9
1,601.7 2,098.6 3,079.5 3,306.8 3,232.2 3,572.4 3,428.8 3,533.6 4,633.3 5,326.1
1,732.1 2,221.4 2,375.0 3,471.3 2,749.7 3,170.1 3,465.5 3,401.3 4,062.9 4,629.4
1,657.0 2,053.7 2,066.7 3,354.8 3,149.3 3,315.8 3,882.6 3,732.3 4,987.4 6,091.1
1,912.6 2,027.5 2,617.8 3,388.4 3,712.0 2,773.2 3,938.7 3,825.6 4,710.9 5,251.9
2,098.0 2,574.0 2,592.4 3,571.2 3,418.0 2,912.7 4,397.0 4,247.7 4,793.8 5,022.0
1,643.1 1,770.2 2,552.9 3,465.1 2,824.5 3,210.3 3,477.9 3,623.8 4,510.2 4,487.9
1,604.3 1,847.2 2,577.3 2,470.4 2,620.5 2,454.6 4,034.4 3,646.0 4,108.3 4,287.6
23,487.8 24,771.4 30,495.6 37,860.1 36,882.7 37,530.6 45,679.5 45,436.9 52,883.2 59,650.5
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Average Open Interest of Crude Oil Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
389,935 365,522 424,810 501,655 512,049 432,892 448,063 608,254 647,658 707,934
400,236 384,737 445,167 524,677 519,090 437,188 454,154 640,979 656,889 745,226
427,306 408,751 468,438 581,072 513,359 432,627 497,405 568,526 673,520 829,222
460,841 409,719 463,961 611,727 467,259 419,904 488,061 495,456 690,021 833,759
424,994 401,663 450,611 594,032 453,042 442,950 512,413 478,886 722,494 799,038
376,164 397,245 467,998 582,058 462,476 462,321 474,087 494,078 705,104 785,384
367,405 411,292 476,516 601,212 432,571 451,005 457,033 517,539 692,850 820,131
364,458 424,529 486,499 584,962 416,934 461,851 454,219 542,573 705,577 901,639
395,358 405,389 486,047 622,257 461,298 434,967 505,530 507,191 684,819 870,641
410,387 419,821 481,657 595,743 478,242 430,774 528,548 532,024 716,973 848,728
385,415 404,597 487,175 564,488 479,008 435,178 482,227 550,369 705,218 832,329
368,331 424,333 501,591 531,567 438,118 436,332 531,078 580,586 676,250 841,290
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
202
In Contracts
Jan.
Plastics Plastics are moldable, chemically fabricated materials produced mostly from fossil fuels, such as oil, coal, or natural gas. The word plastic is derived from the Greek plastikos, meaning “to mold,” and the Latin plasticus, meaning “capable of molding.” Leo Baekeland created the first commercially successful thermosetting synthetic resin in 1909. More than 50 families of plastics have since been produced. All plastics can be divided into either thermoplastics or thermosetting plastics. The difference is the way in which they respond to heat. Thermoplastics can be repeatedly softened by heat and hardened by cooling. Thermosetting plastics harden permanently after being heated once. Prices – Plastics prices in 2005 showed the third consecutive year of strong gains following the recessionary lows seen in 2001 and 2002. Specifically, the average monthly producer price index of plastic resins and materials in the US in 2005 rose +18.6% yr/yr to 193.5, rebounding farther from the 5-year low of 130.7 posted in 2002. The average monthly producer price index of thermoplastic resins in the US in 2005 rose +19.4% yr/yr to 196.1, rebounding farther from the 6-year low of 129.1 posted in 2002. The average monthly producer price index of styrene plastic materials (also a thermoplastic) in the US in 2003 (the last available data year) rose +21.2% to 115.7 from the 25-year low of 95.5 posted in 2002. The average monthly producer price index of thermosetting resins in the US in 2005 rose sharply by
Plastics Production by Resin in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
+15.2% yr/yr to a record high of 193.2. Supply – Total US plastics production in 2004 rose by +7.1% yr/yr to a new record high of 113.940 billion pounds. US plastics production has more than doubled in the past two decades. By sector, the thermoplastics sector is by far the largest, with 2004 production rising by +7.8% yr/yr to 92.317 billion pounds and accounting for 81% of total US plastic production. Production in the thermosetting plastic sector (polyester unsaturated, phenolic, and epoxy) rose +4.6% yr/yr in 2004 to 8.152 billion pounds and accounted for 7% of total US plastics production. The category of “other plastics” rose +7.3% to 13.471 billion pounds and accounted for 12% of total US plastics production. Demand – The breakdown by market for the usage of plastic resins shows that the largest single consumption category is “packaging” with 25.952 billion pounds of usage in 2004, accounting for 30% of total US consumption. After packaging, the largest categories are “commercial and industrial” (22% of US consumption), and “building and construction” (18% of US consumption). Trade – US exports of plastics in 2004 rose +9.9% yr/yr to 9.900 billion pounds, not far below the record high of 10.048 billion pounds seen in 2002. US exports accounted for 11% of US supply disappearance in 2004.
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------------ Thermoplastics -----------------------------------------High Low ----------------- Thermosets ----------------Total Total Total ThermoPolyester Density Density plastic Polyvinyl PolyPolyThermoUnsatPolye- Thermo- Selected Polyesets Polyester Chloride styrene propylene Nylon thylene1 urated Phenlic Epoxy thylene plastics Plastics
1,577 1,557 1,621 1,713 2,985 3,149 3,021 3,197 3,152 3,294
3,204 3,476 3,734 3,940 4,388 3,965 3,894 4,076 4,015 4,200
I ncludes LDPE and LLDPE.
632 662 654 639 657 669 597 620 587 658
7,519 8,129 8,647 9,163 8,030 7,783 7,512 7,893 7,754 8,152
3,785 4,031 4,260 4,423 6,735 7,239 6,972 7,480 7,950 8,632
12,295 13,220 14,084 14,502 14,912 14,364 14,626 15,250 14,938 15,883
5,656 6,065 6,380 6,237 7,075 6,676 6,223 6,768 6,478 6,765
10,890 11,991 13,320 13,825 15,493 15,583 16,135 17,084 17,497 18,523
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
12,886 14,145 14,579 14,805 15,807 19,588 18,389 19,515 18,915 20,390
11,211 12,373 12,557 12,924 13,864 16,439 15,195 16,190 15,906 17,519
59,331 66,850 64,526 72,655 67,872 76,519 71,209 78,659 78,457 86,487 84,553 92,336 81,726 89,238 86,762 94,655 86,071 93,825 92,317 100,469
Total Plastics
11,834 11,640 12,287 13,026 13,467 13,604 12,720 13,607 12,641 13,471
78,684 84,295 88,806 91,685 99,954 105,940 101,958 108,262 106,466 113,940
Source: American Plastics Council (APC)
Total Resin Sales and Captive Use by Important Markets Year
1,020 1,103 1,222 1,285 1,349 1,395 1,159 1,284 1,306 1,357
Other Plastics
Adhesive, Inks & Coatings
Building & Construction
Consumer & Industrial
Electrical & Electronics
1,795 1,833 1,713 1,758 1,753 1,167 1,143 1,165 1,170 1,196
13,551 15,413 11,418 12,077 13,793 14,439 13,988 14,729 14,495 15,676
8,921 9,662 10,357 11,031 11,645 13,495 13,409 17,649 17,571 18,714
2,872 3,022 2,806 2,816 3,036 2,787 2,501 3,037 2,862 3,096
In Millions of Pounds (Dry Weight Basis)
Exports
Furniture & Furnishings
Industrial & Machinary
P a ckaging
Transportation
Other
Total
7,162 7,997 8,647 8,208 8,424 9,771 9,295 10,048 9,009 9,900
3,189 3,468 3,099 3,293 2,885 3,572 3,226 3,507 3,361 3,458
805 965 729 710 802 1,084 968 998 962 1,042
17,107 18,691 19,135 19,396 21,210 23,933 25,948 24,170 24,087 25,952
3,376 3,469 3,411 3,588 3,632 4,389 4,207 4,738 4,732 4,899
7,421 8,701 8,640 9,211 10,189 3,003 2,705 2,283 2,021 2,168
66,200 73,221 69,955 71,994 77,123 77,640 77,390 82,324 80,270 86,101
Source: American Plastics Council (APC)
203
PLASTICS Average Producer Price Index of Plastic Resins and Materials (066) in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
129.9 137.0 134.0 115.9 133.2 137.8 122.0 137.2 146.2 190.3
128.4 137.5 132.2 115.8 135.7 139.3 121.3 141.8 150.4 190.8
128.4 138.7 131.0 117.3 139.4 141.4 123.1 149.6 151.4 192.1
127.7 138.9 130.7 118.6 143.7 141.9 125.4 153.2 154.8 192.3
130.6 139.1 128.8 122.1 147.4 139.9 128.0 152.4 156.5 190.3
132.1 139.6 126.8 123.1 147.8 137.6 130.1 149.2 159.6 186.3
133.2 139.3 125.0 127.9 146.4 135.1 135.3 144.9 161.1 185.0
135.2 137.4 123.7 130.0 146.3 131.3 136.4 143.6 164.9 183.4
137.9 136.0 119.6 133.8 142.4 126.8 136.7 144.9 170.6 191.4
138.0 135.9 118.6 135.6 140.7 128.3 138.2 146.2 175.6 204.1
138.0 134.6 117.1 135.8 138.8 126.6 137.0 145.8 181.4 209.1
137.7 133.9 115.9 134.3 137.3 123.9 135.3 144.0 185.2 206.5
133.1 137.3 125.3 125.8 141.6 134.2 130.7 146.1 163.1 193.5
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
Average Producer Price Index of Thermoplastic Resins (0662) in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
(1982 = 100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
128.4 136.7 133.0 112.3 133.8 136.3 118.4 136.3 146.7 193.2
126.7 137.3 130.7 112.5 136.0 138.0 117.8 142.2 151.9 193.8
126.8 138.6 129.5 114.4 140.4 140.2 120.3 151.4 152.6 195.3
125.9 138.8 129.2 116.1 145.2 140.8 123.8 155.8 156.4 194.9
129.4 139.0 127.0 120.4 149.3 138.4 126.2 153.6 157.5 192.0
131.1 139.7 124.7 121.6 149.6 135.7 128.6 149.5 160.9 187.0
132.5 139.3 122.5 127.5 147.6 133.1 135.0 144.3 162.3 185.4
134.8 137.0 121.0 129.9 147.4 128.6 135.9 142.8 165.5 183.7
137.8 135.5 116.4 134.5 142.7 123.4 136.2 144.7 171.3 193.6
137.9 135.3 115.3 136.7 140.3 125.7 137.6 146.3 176.6 208.6
137.9 133.8 113.7 137.0 137.9 123.9 136.1 146.2 182.3 214.4
137.6 133.0 112.2 135.2 136.0 120.8 133.8 143.9 186.9 211.0
132.2 137.0 122.9 124.9 142.2 132.1 129.1 146.4 164.2 196.1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
Average Producer Price Index of Styrene Plastics Materials (0662-06) in the United States Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20041 1
(1982 = 100)
Jan.
(1982 = 100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
129.0 125.7 120.6 113.3 103.5 103.0 110.5 85.7 102.9 NA
127.0 123.5 123.1 113.9 102.4 104.3 109.2 85.8 110.2 NA
132.5 125.0 123.0 115.5 103.5 110.5 107.9 87.9 119.5 NA
134.7 118.3 121.6 114.9 104.7 113.0 108.0 88.5 127.2 NA
135.9 120.1 121.6 114.1 103.0 116.2 101.8 90.4 126.7 NA
137.5 122.7 121.6 112.8 102.3 116.9 99.9 91.7 119.1 NA
135.1 123.4 122.7 111.3 103.1 118.5 97.6 93.7 118.0 NA
133.2 123.3 117.7 111.2 101.5 116.5 95.7 100.6 113.3 NA
132.1 123.6 118.0 107.6 101.4 115.0 87.3 100.5 112.8 NA
130.1 122.8 116.5 107.9 99.8 114.1 89.4 108.9 113.6 NA
127.9 122.0 113.5 107.1 99.4 112.1 90.0 108.1 113.7 NA
126.1 120.9 113.7 106.3 100.5 110.4 85.4 103.9 111.6 NA
131.8 122.6 119.5 111.3 102.1 112.5 98.6 95.5 115.7 NA
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
Average Producer Price Index of Thermosetting Resins (0663) in the United States
(1982 = 100)
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
141.8 142.1 143.6 139.9 136.8 152.1 146.2 150.4 154.0 189.9
141.9 142.3 144.0 138.1 141.1 152.9 144.6 149.7 154.2 190.3
141.2 142.7 143.2 137.7 141.3 154.5 143.8 151.7 155.9 190.5
141.3 143.1 142.9 137.4 142.8 154.4 141.2 152.0 158.3 193.5
141.4 143.2 142.6 136.9 144.9 154.2 144.1 156.8 162.2 195.8
141.2 143.0 142.7 136.5 146.0 154.2 145.5 157.9 164.3 195.8
140.6 142.8 142.5 136.2 147.6 152.3 145.8 157.1 166.4 195.5
141.5 142.9 142.2 136.5 147.8 151.3 147.6 156.4 173.2 194.6
141.7 143.0 141.2 136.5 147.5 150.4 148.4 155.7 179.0 194.7
142.0 143.1 140.9 136.5 149.5 148.2 150.3 155.6 183.0 198.1
142.0 142.9 140.1 136.3 150.3 146.3 150.3 153.8 189.3 199.4
142.2 142.9 140.3 136.2 151.0 146.1 150.6 153.8 189.8 200.2
141.6 142.8 142.2 137.0 145.6 151.4 146.5 154.2 169.1 194.9
Preliminary.
204
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
Platinum-Group Metals Platinum is a relatively rare, chemically inert metallic element that is more valuable than gold. Platinum is a grayish-white metal that has a high fusing point, is malleable and ductile, and has a high electrical resistance. Chemically, platinum is relatively inert and resists attack by air, water, single acids, and ordinary reagents. Weighing almost twice as much as gold, platinum is the heaviest of the precious metals. Platinum is the most important of the sixmetal group, which also includes ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, and iridium. The word “platinum” is derived from the Spanish word platina meaning silver. Platinum is one of the world’s rarest metals with new mine production totaling only about 5 million troy ounces a year. All the platinum mined to date would fit in the average-size living room. Platinum is mined all over the world with supplies concentrated in South Africa. South Africa accounts for nearly 80% of world supply, followed by Russia, and North America. Because platinum will never tarnish, lose its rich white luster, or even wear down after many years, it is prized by the jewelry industry. The international jewelry industry is the largest consumer sector for platinum, accounting for 51% of total platinum demand. In Europe and the US, the normal purity of platinum is 95%. Ten tons of ore must be mined and a five-month process is needed to produce one ounce of pure platinum. The second major consumer sector for platinum is for auto catalysts, with 21% of total platinum demand. Catalysts in autos are used to convert most of vehicle emissions into less harmful carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and water vapor. Platinum is also used in the production of hard disk drive coatings, fiber optic cables, infra-red detectors, fertilizers, explosives, petrol additives, platinum-tipped spark plugs, glassmaking equipment, biodegradable elements for household detergents, dental restorations, and in anti-cancer drugs. Palladium is very similar to platinum and is part of the same general metals group. Palladium is mined with platinum, but it is somewhat more common because it is also a by-product of nickel mining. The primary use for palladium is in the use of automotive catalysts, with that sector accounting for about 63% of total palladium demand. Other uses for palladium include electronic equipment (21%), dental alloys (12%), and jewelry (4%). Rhodium, another member of the platinum group, is also used in the automotive industry in pollution control devices. To some extent palladium has replaced rhodium. Iridium is used to process catalysts and it has also found use in some auto catalysts. Iridium and ruthenium are used in the production of polyvinyl chloride. As the prices of these metals change, there is some substitution. Therefore, strength of platinum prices relative to palladium should lead to the substitution of palladium for platinum in catalytic converters. Platinum futures and options and palladium futures are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Platinum and palladium futures are traded on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). The NYMEX platinum futures contract calls for the delivery of 50 troy ounces of platinum (0.9995 fineness) and the contract trades in terms of dollars and cents per troy ounce. The NYMEX palladium futures contract calls for the delivery of 50 troy ounces of palladium (0.9995 fineness) and the contract is priced in terms of dollars and cents per troy ounce. Prices – NYMEX platinum futures prices started out 2005 at $843.20 per troy ounce and then extended the rally seen in 2004 to a record high of $996.80 by December of 2005. The rally continued into 2006 and the metal briefly hit almost $1,100 before falling back into the $1,000 range by February of 2006. NYMEX palladium futures prices started out 2005 at $177.50 per troy ounce and then rallied sharply all year to post a 3-1/2 year high of $267.45 in December. The rally continued into 2006 and the metal briefly hit a high of about $325 before falling back into the $280 range by February of 2005. Supply – World mine production of platinum in 2004, the latest reporting year, rose by +4.4% yr/yr to 214,000 kilograms, which was a record high production level. South Africa is the world’s largest producer of platinum by far with 75% of world production in 2004, followed by Russia (17%), Canada (3%) and the US (2%). World mine production of palladium in 2004 rose +3.9% to 188,000 kilograms, which was a record high production level. The world’s largest palladium producers are South Africa with 42% of world production in 2004, Russia with 39%, the US with 7%, and Canada with 6%. World production of platinum group metals other than platinum and palladium in 2004 fell –2.0% yr/yr to 64,500 kilograms, down from last year’s record high of 65,800 kilograms. South Africa accounted for 74% of that production and Russia accounted for 23%. US mine production of platinum in 2004 fell by –3.1% yr/yr to 4,040 kilograms, down farther from the record high of 4,390 kilograms posted in 2002. US mine production of palladium in 2004 fell by –2.1% yr/yr to 13,700 kilograms, down farther from the record high of 14,800 kilograms posted in 2002. US refinery production of scrap platinum and palladium in 2004 fell by –8.5% to 22,180 kilograms, which was just above the record low of 20,900 kilograms in 2002. Demand – The total of platinum-group metals sold to consuming industries in the US in 2004 rose +7.1% to 91,434 kilograms. The two main US industries that use platinum are the auto industry, which accounts for more than 74% of US platinum usage, and the jewelry industry, which accounts for about 27% of US platinum usage. Trade – US imports of refined platinum and palladium for consumption rose +11.2% yr/yr to 248,705 kilograms, which was well above the 9-year low of 222,356 kilograms seen in 2002. US exports of refined platinum and palladium rose +16.1% yr/yr to 52,388 kilograms, up from the 7year low of 45,124 kilograms seen in 2003. The US relied on imports for 91% of its platinum and palladium consumption in 2004.
205
PLATINUM-GROUP METALS World Mine Production of Platinum Year
Australia
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
100 300 150 90 171 174 200 225 230
1
Preliminary.
2
In Kilograms
Canada
Colombi a3
Finland
Ja p a n
Russia
Serbia/ Montenegro
South Africa
United States
Zimbabwe
World Total
5,155 4,813 5,640 5,663 6,302 7,410 7,400 6,930 7,000
672 406 411 448 339 674 661 1,393 1,400
62 60 500 500 441 510 508 505 500
816 693 533 737 782 791 762 770 780
25,000 30,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 35,000 35,000 36,000 36,000
10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5
105,000 115,861 116,483 121,304 114,459 130,307 133,796 151,022 160,013
1,840 2,610 3,240 2,920 3,110 3,610 4,390 4,170 4,040
100 345 2,730 479 505 519 2,306 4,400 4,438
139,000 155,000 160,000 164,000 160,000 179,000 185,000 205,000 214,000
Estimate.
3
Placer platinum.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
World Mine Production of Palladium and Other Group Metals Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
In Kilograms
------------------------------------------------------------------------ Palladium ------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------- Other Group Metals -------AustSerbia/ South United World South World ralia Canada Finland Ja p a n Russia Montenegro Africa States Zimbabwe Total Russia Africa Total
400 400 800 816 812 828 810 820 830
Preliminary.
2
8,082 7,545 8,905 8,939 9,949 11,700 11,500 10,785 12,000
Estimate.
182 180 150 150 ----------------
2,182 1,899 4,151 5,354 4,712 4,805 5,618 5,500 5,600
80,000 70,000 70,000 67,000 71,000 72,000 73,000 74,000 74,000
50 50 50 25 25 25 25 20 20
52,600 55,675 56,608 58,164 55,818 62,601 64,244 72,758 78,455
6,100 8,430 10,600 9,800 10,300 12,100 14,800 14,000 13,700
120 245 1,855 342 366 371 1,943 3,170 3,564
150,000 144,000 153,000 151,000 153,000 164,000 172,000 181,000 188,000
3,500 13,500 13,500 13,400 14,100 14,500 14,500 14,600 14,600
30,363 25,068 26,862 37,011 36,493 35,839 41,721 49,594 48,264
34,800 39,200 41,300 51,200 51,400 51,100 57,400 65,800 64,500
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Platinum-Group Metals Sold to Consuming Industries in the United States Dental &
In Kilograms
Jew elry &
--- Automotive --- ---- Chemical ---- ----- Electrical ----- ----- Medical ----- --- Decorative --- ---- Petroleum ---- ------ All Platinum-Group Metals -----Year
Platinum
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
28,550 28,923 29,483 31,100 32,344 33,411 17,727 27,524 24,880
Other3 Platinum
19,282 20,402 26,528 29,390 31,100 34,832 19,904 37,476 44,940
2,115 2,239 2,301 2,364 2,457 2,644 3,110 2,955 2,799
Other3 Platinum
2,457 2,426 2,488 2,519 2,139 715 2,333 2,177 2,644
4,541 4,945 5,194 5,443 5,691 5,909 2,955 2,644 2,799
Other3 Platinum Other3 Platinum
17,665 19,997 20,215 21,148 19,282 17,354 6,531 6,687 6,376
778 840 902 933 964 995 1,244 778 622
6,285 6,376 6,376 6,065 3,732 3,670 6,687 6,998 7,309
1,493 2,115 2,333 3,110 3,670 4,043 9,641 9,641 9,019
Other3 Platinum
1,493 1,617 1,617 1,679 1,400 1,431 ----------
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes Palladium, iridium, osmium, rhodium, and ruthenium. American Metal Market (AMM)
1
Salient Statistics of Platinum and Allied Metals3 in the United States
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
Net Import Reliance as a % of Mine Apparent ---- Production ---Consumption Platinum Palladium
84 84 94 ---83 66 93 96 91
1,840 2,610 3,240 2,920 3,110 3,610 4,390 4,170 4,040
6,100 8,430 10,600 9,800 10,300 12,100 14,800 14,000 13,700
Refinery Production (Secondary)
Total Refined Platinum Palladium
NA NA NA 23,300 23,780 24,790 20,900 24,250 22,180
NA ---NA 14,100 NA 13,700 23,300 7,060 23,780 5,190 24,790 3,680 20,900 649 24,250 649 22,180 649
206
902 871 809 778 660 715 ----------
44,489 46,184 47,396 50,310 52,808 55,399 33,433 37,476 33,588
Other3
45,157 50,227 61,827 65,248 61,889 62,293 28,768 47,894 57,846
In Kilograms
Refiner, Importer & Dealer Imports for ----------- Stocks as of Dec. 31 ----------- ---- Consumption ----- ------- Exports -------
---39,300 38,800 28,200 19,000 16,300 5,870 1,170 568
Other4
Total
---920 920 784 784 784 784 562 501
---54,320 53,420 36,044 24,974 20,764 7,303 2,381 1,718
Total
---- 89,646 ---- 96,411 ---- 109,223 ---- 115,558 ---- 114,697 ---- 117,692 ---- 62,200 ---- 85,370 ---- 91,434
Sources: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS);
Total
Refined
Total
Apparent Consumption
248,860 255,880 253,114 258,424 297,101 303,351 337,973 ---316,633 ---267,957 ---222,356 ---223,653 ---248,705 ----
39,709 67,656 52,716 64,165 84,087 67,334 70,943 45,124 52,388
48,836 81,249 73,162 -------------------
----------------------------
Refined
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes platinum, palladium, iridium, osmium, rhodium, and ruthenium. ruthenium. W = Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Other3 Platinum Palladium
3,514 3,390 3,390 3,514 3,639 4,199 1,400 1,244 1,089
4
I ncludes iridium, osmium, rhodium, and
PLATINUM-GROUP METALS
-----
---
Platinum: USD Per Troy Ounce Producer, New York (Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1977) Merchant, New York (Jan. 1978 - date) Palladium: USD Per Troy Ounce Dealer, New York (Jan. 1968 - date)
Average Merchant's Price of Platinum in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
416.59 360.13 375.30 353.53 432.95 623.43 471.52 629.52 851.28 859.03
421.45 362.35 390.56 361.55 517.02 453.56 470.68 681.79 846.33 865.16
412.39 382.82 396.18 370.80 478.28 566.67 511.95 675.00 900.26 865.89
405.71 371.18 412.82 357.30 493.53 589.63 539.20 624.48 880.14 864.55
402.86 385.20 392.60 354.75 519.57 611.07 533.66 649.43 807.28 866.26
393.18 427.12 357.38 357.75 557.45 588.91 554.70 661.43 807.55 880.36
392.00 409.93 379.34 350.30 558.53 643.88 526.32 682.02 809.60 876.60
400.97 423.48 372.24 352.24 572.76 457.37 545.48 692.48 848.43 901.04
391.43 424.00 361.40 365.62 592.53 453.50 556.05 705.33 847.88 918.10
385.53 428.59 347.27 421.52 576.91 437.43 580.11 732.65 841.43 933.76
383.92 396.68 348.42 436.48 592.73 427.25 588.15 760.08 853.81 962.19
372.97 369.55 352.76 438.00 608.28 450.24 594.89 807.10 850.89 977.25
398.24 395.42 373.85 376.44 541.49 531.93 539.39 691.78 845.41 897.52
Preliminary.
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Average Dealer2 Price of Palladium in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Dollars Per Troy Ounce
In Dollars Per Troy Ounce
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
130.47 121.48 222.55 317.28 447.45 1054.10 412.62 258.19 221.00 188.45
138.77 134.26 237.25 351.38 607.33 984.37 377.79 255.68 237.95 184.16
138.77 151.13 258.01 351.78 687.72 792.68 377.15 226.38 272.43 200.55
137.10 152.75 310.81 358.83 580.00 699.15 372.50 164.76 299.52 200.57
132.83 167.52 353.58 330.70 574.89 663.41 360.00 168.90 249.55 191.29
129.70 203.62 284.34 339.84 640.80 619.67 339.20 181.76 231.86 188.36
132.69 176.84 307.53 333.17 686.63 525.90 325.41 174.91 222.95 186.95
128.12 210.90 287.48 341.64 759.63 459.83 327.55 185.76 217.36 188.13
122.55 190.17 283.88 358.55 731.15 444.47 330.50 213.24 213.95 191.24
118.35 206.52 277.89 387.05 734.91 340.52 319.09 204.17 220.43 209.71
118.21 209.93 281.82 400.38 778.73 333.14 289.20 200.17 216.00 246.45
117.91 200.70 306.73 420.17 887.33 405.95 243.57 200.86 193.09 266.00
128.79 177.15 284.32 357.50 676.55 610.27 339.55 202.90 233.01 203.49
Preliminary.
2
Based on wholesale quantities, prompt delivery.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
207
PLATINUM-GROUP METALS
Volume of Trading of Platinum Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
80,545 60,515 38,198 37,700 33,226 19,278 12,848 15,545 16,337 15,410
70,260 83,325 35,538 53,698 31,352 12,885 13,807 15,157 15,574 20,253
86,258 86,242 65,871 68,350 35,013 31,617 24,434 38,170 42,249 41,297
54,151 57,719 36,169 36,900 28,057 14,961 11,066 13,472 29,228 16,267
47,929 67,000 36,208 26,507 22,741 15,714 12,294 18,968 13,125 20,135
88,806 72,481 47,464 75,444 47,197 23,245 27,176 30,961 28,495 55,588
53,312 37,836 35,223 57,536 16,527 14,494 14,198 10,852 15,598 25,132
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
53,654 90,140 36,391 62,462 27,505 58,302 36,115 102,196 14,739 36,643 12,477 17,040 18,583 29,762 11,878 37,686 18,180 34,076 26,604 52,535
Aug.
47,116 46,188 44,381 30,637 12,122 9,957 11,834 19,275 24,393 21,827
41,970 28,913 42,658 32,176 12,662 11,401 9,878 14,040 18,606 30,447
88,327 58,625 60,752 40,009 30,645 22,890 33,891 42,301 39,834 50,684
802,468 698,597 528,629 597,268 320,924 205,969 219,771 268,305 295,695 376,179
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Average Open Interest of Platinum Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
23,130 25,890 10,791 12,311 10,858 8,449 6,587 8,694 8,210 6,800
21,535 26,092 10,932 14,481 10,952 7,311 6,213 8,132 7,379 7,486
23,156 22,364 13,220 16,493 9,218 6,855 7,121 8,034 8,879 8,047
25,081 16,568 13,559 11,471 8,484 6,715 6,823 6,322 7,698 8,132
26,343 18,933 12,048 12,256 9,057 7,436 6,031 6,599 5,555 8,496
27,720 18,440 11,471 12,436 10,585 5,751 6,901 6,847 5,590 10,109
25,861 13,280 10,607 14,703 9,566 6,210 5,516 7,450 5,376 8,497
25,455 14,180 9,733 13,777 9,731 5,996 6,405 8,556 6,282 11,729
28,511 13,639 11,950 15,014 9,716 5,646 6,930 8,794 6,091 12,478
28,305 13,466 14,601 14,892 8,106 5,395 7,211 8,489 6,092 13,024
27,423 12,396 15,709 13,402 8,163 6,102 7,406 9,421 7,208 12,377
29,143 13,501 13,289 12,017 8,507 6,033 8,388 9,373 7,184 11,327
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
208
In Contracts
Jan.
PLATINUM-GROUP METALS
Volume of Trading of Palladium Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
13,725 13,908 11,506 3,092 4,584 2,171 1,275 4,200 17,093 7,728
33,519 43,160 17,786 11,614 13,976 6,090 3,372 7,266 41,036 43,268
11,931 22,796 18,678 4,082 2,803 1,397 1,538 3,256 20,508 16,979
16,416 21,604 14,042 7,097 1,833 1,121 1,527 3,971 30,214 13,316
27,467 36,422 17,942 8,890 7,034 3,325 6,126 8,420 27,343 46,112
8,989 17,647 7,370 3,411 2,622 1,013 2,166 3,430 11,433 13,594
9,896 18,097 4,241 5,053 3,120 1,173 2,154 4,221 7,606 17,185
23,740 18,751 8,737 6,868 5,169 3,221 8,971 15,645 28,895 49,268
10,721 8,331 6,214 5,826 2,523 523 1,452 8,152 10,690 17,747
8,149 13,094 4,962 3,722 2,460 1,255 1,710 7,587 15,036 21,680
28,870 13,143 12,839 10,670 3,041 3,261 8,118 18,323 41,269 50,643
12,187 11,763 6,933 5,069 1,601 1,375 2,644 11,142 16,429 24,403
205,610 238,716 131,250 75,394 50,766 25,925 41,053 95,613 267,552 321,923
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Average Open Interest of Palladium Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
6,365 8,291 4,062 2,846 3,129 1,828 1,217 2,000 9,119 12,824
7,539 10,946 4,873 3,234 3,101 1,666 1,208 2,039 11,878 13,821
6,682 10,528 5,220 2,957 2,367 1,525 1,042 1,948 11,465 12,946
7,099 9,759 5,369 3,015 2,359 1,577 1,199 1,997 11,039 13,116
8,713 9,947 4,371 2,796 2,628 1,613 1,554 2,315 8,828 13,345
8,143 7,072 4,219 2,757 2,015 1,385 1,806 2,609 7,861 13,527
7,977 5,538 4,166 2,823 2,118 1,420 2,103 2,680 8,055 13,794
8,805 4,973 3,488 2,496 1,974 1,318 2,298 3,605 8,688 14,465
8,129 3,822 2,959 2,755 1,757 1,383 1,878 5,184 8,933 13,340
7,971 4,282 3,048 3,210 1,905 1,286 1,976 5,533 9,965 13,488
8,227 4,291 2,938 3,301 1,859 1,477 1,977 6,096 11,192 14,676
7,727 4,030 2,700 3,045 1,837 1,244 2,025 6,737 12,188 14,477
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
209
Pork Bellies Pork bellies are the cut of meat from a hog from which bacon is produced. A hog has two belly slabs, generally weighing 8-18 pounds each, depending on the hog’s commercial slaughter weight. Total hog slaughter weights average around 255 pounds, equal to a dressed carcass weight of about 190 pounds. Bellies account for about 12% of a hog’s live weight, but represent a larger 14% of the total cutout value of the realized pork products. Pork bellies can be frozen and stored for up to a year before processing. The pork belly futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange calls for the physical delivery of 40,000 pounds of frozen pork bellies, which have been slaughtered at USDA federally inspected slaughtering plants. Each deliverable belly typically weighs 12-14 pounds each. There are definite seasonal patterns in pork belly prices. Bellies are storable and the movement into cold storage builds early in the calendar year, peaking about mid-year. Net withdrawals from storage then carry stocks to a low around October. The cycle then starts again. Retail bacon demand also follows a time worn trend, peaking in the summer and tapering off to a low during the winter months. While demand patterns would suggest the highest prices in the summer and the lowest in the winter, just the opposite is not unusual. Such contra-seasonal price moves can be partially attributed to supply logistics, notably the availability of frozen storage stocks deliverable against futures at CME exchange-approved warehouses. When stocks prove either too large or small, the underlying demand variables for bacon can be relegated to the backburner as a marketmoving factor. The fact that no contract months are traded
Average Retail Price of Bacon, Sliced Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
between August and the following February adds to the late fall futures price distortion. Belly prices (cash and futures) are sensitive to the inventory in cold storage and to the weekly net movement in and out of storage, which affords some insight to demand, although a better measure is the weekly quantity of bellies being sliced into bacon. Higher retail prices tend to encourage placing more supply into storage because of lower retail bacon demand. Bacon is not a necessary foodstuff so demand can be buoyed by favorable consumer disposable income. However, dietary standards have changed dramatically in recent years and do not favor the consumption of high fat and salt content food, such as bacon. In addition, alternatives to pork bacon have emerged in recent years such as turkey bacon, which has lower fat and calorie content. Prices – Pork belly futures prices on the nearest futures chart fell sharply in early 2005 from the record high of 126 cents per pound posted in mid-2004 but then recovered some of those losses later in the year to close 2005 at 82.15 cents/pound, down –13% on the year. The average monthly price of cash pork bellies (Midwest) fell by –18% in 2005 from the record of 99.35 cents seen in 2004. The average retail price of bacon in 2005 (through November) rose by +0.6% to a record high of $3.40 per pound. Supply – The average monthly level of frozen pork belly storage stocks rose sharply in 2005 to 54.012 million pounds, up +45% from 2004. As of December 2005, there were 28.687 million pounds of pork bellies in storage.
In Dollars Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2.14 2.66 2.64 2.52 2.75 2.99 3.27 3.20 3.16 3.37
2.20 2.65 2.62 2.52 2.87 3.07 3.32 3.28 3.19 3.40
2.20 2.66 2.54 2.51 2.93 3.16 3.27 3.22 3.13 3.36
2.24 2.66 2.44 2.45 2.95 3.11 3.26 3.29 3.20 3.33
2.35 2.63 2.44 2.47 3.01 3.26 3.18 3.09 3.33 3.56
2.49 2.69 2.46 2.50 3.13 3.25 3.19 3.14 3.42 3.46
2.54 2.72 2.52 2.50 3.17 3.32 3.23 3.16 3.47 3.48
2.68 2.76 2.51 2.93 3.20 3.47 3.29 3.23 3.62 3.44
2.81 2.75 2.58 2.58 3.21 3.49 3.16 3.22 3.59 3.40
2.72 2.73 2.57 2.57 3.07 3.34 3.24 3.16 3.61 3.33
2.66 2.67 2.62 2.66 3.05 3.30 3.21 3.23 3.44 3.26
2.64 2.61 2.58 2.75 3.03 3.30 3.24 3.18 3.37 3.33
2.47 2.68 2.54 2.58 3.03 3.25 3.24 3.20 3.38 3.39
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Froz en Pork Belly Storage Stocks in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
47,587 37,930 44,763 72,657 40,300 47,099 44,301 28,254 49,017 56,026
46,498 38,030 55,249 82,605 43,802 50,145 50,849 35,354 63,095 63,417
46,381 44,277 55,368 93,323 49,983 47,154 57,569 38,278 57,123 75,321
47,655 54,767 54,441 106,194 60,527 45,440 60,721 42,971 50,126 81,265
57,174 54,015 58,600 109,521 63,461 43,878 63,293 48,542 48,363 89,360
63,522 55,274 59,462 108,257 68,292 46,029 62,269 45,870 41,366 81,694
56,767 52,274 52,010 93,383 60,097 39,552 51,019 43,504 37,185 70,634
28,533 33,657 31,433 69,675 50,515 24,996 29,925 32,075 23,383 50,315
18,996 18,346 14,786 34,814 33,005 12,754 14,250 17,900 15,230 22,098
12,702 11,148 9,452 19,273 21,341 8,960 9,452 10,180 11,344 14,117
16,206 14,408 16,440 22,489 20,589 28,216 10,354 21,135 15,970 15,211
30,943 25,365 41,711 26,170 38,674 36,297 18,059 33,073 33,955 28,613
Preliminary.
210
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
PORK BELLIES Weekly Pork Belly Storage Movement -------------------------- Stocks1 In Thousands of Pounds -------------------------Net MoveWeek On ment Ending In Out Hand
Jan 03, 2004 Jan 10, 2004 Jan 17, 2004 Jan 24, 2004 Jan 31, 2004 F eb 0 7 , 2 0 0 4 F eb 1 4 , 2 0 0 4 F eb 2 1 , 2 0 0 4 F eb 2 8 , 2 0 0 4 Mar 06, 2004 Mar 13, 2004 Mar 20, 2004 Mar 27, 2004 Apr 03, 2004 Apr 10, 2004 Apr 17, 2004 Apr 24, 2004 May 01, 2004 May 08, 2004 May 15, 2004 May 22, 2004 May 29, 2004 Ju n 05, 2004 Ju n 12, 2004 Ju n 19, 2004 Ju n 26, 2004 Ju l 03, 2004 Ju l 10, 2004 Ju l 17, 2004 Ju l 24, 2004 Ju l 31, 2004 A u g 07, 2004 A u g 14, 2004 A u g 21, 2004 A u g 28, 2004 Sep 04, 2004 Sep 11, 2004 Sep 18, 2004 Sep 25, 2004 Oct 02, 2004 Oct 09, 2004 Oct 16, 2004 Oct 23, 2004 Oct 30, 2004 Nov 06, 2004 Nov 13, 2004 Nov 20, 2004 Nov 27, 2004 Dec 04, 2004 Dec 11, 2004 Dec 18, 2004 Dec 25, 2004 1
2,906 3,596 2,364 1,675 1,433 716 242 221 14 89 860 0 78 747 203 726 851 239 1,084 1,440 NA 306 295 1,160 367 1,245 146 939 370 859 103 484 59 229 229 193 134 85 156 325 286 17 1,152 3,082 2,424 2,389 3,466 5,023 6,416 3,105 6,112 5,403
-253 -250 -294 -78 -453 -1,641 -804 -1,059 -951 -879 -408 -804 -797 -1,367 -757 -828 -161 -901 -549 -1,910 -2,128 -893 -2,158 -871 -1,442 -1,070 -1,536 -1,856 -2,505 -2,486 -2,163 -2,321 -1,495 -2,029 -2,029 -1,102 -1,092 -848 -711 -391 -283 -279 -537 -279 -150 -366 -1,072 -24 -128 -2,347 -123 -3,634
28,248 31,594 34,009 35,606 36,586 35,561 35,099 34,261 33,324 32,533 23,662 31,218 30,499 29,879 29,325 29,223 29,913 29,251 29,786 29,316 27,187 27,828 25,964 26,254 25,179 25,354 23,964 20,650 18,515 16,888 14,828 12,458 11,022 9,222 9,222 8,313 7,356 6,593 6,038 5,972 5,975 5,713 6,327 9,131 11,405 13,427 15,821 20,820 27,108 27,866 33,855 35,625
2,653 3,346 2,070 1,597 980 -925 -562 -838 -937 -790 452 -804 -719 -620 -554 -102 690 -662 536 -470 -2,128 -587 -1,863 289 -1,075 175 -1,390 -917 -2,135 -1,627 -2,060 -1,837 -1,436 -1,800 -1,800 -909 -958 -763 -555 -66 3 -262 615 2,803 2,274 2,023 2,394 4,999 6,288 758 5,989 1,769
------------------------------ Stocks1 In Thousands of Pounds -----------------------------Net MoveWeek On ment Ending In Out Hand
Jan 01, 2005 Jan 08, 2005 Jan 15, 2005 Jan 22, 2005 Jan 29, 2005 F eb 0 5 , 2 0 0 5 F eb 1 2 , 2 0 0 5 F eb 1 9 , 2 0 0 5 F eb 2 6 , 2 0 0 5 Mar 05, 2005 Mar 12, 2005 Mar 19, 2005 Mar 26, 2005 Apr 02, 2005 Apr 09, 2005 Apr 16, 2005 Apr 23, 2005 Apr 30, 2005 May 07, 2005 May 14, 2005 May 21, 2005 May 28, 2005 Ju n 04, 2005 Ju n 11, 2005 Ju n 18, 2005 Ju n 25, 2005 Ju l 02, 2005 Ju l 09, 2005 Ju l 16, 2005 Ju l 23, 2005 Ju l 30, 2005 A u g 06, 2005 A u g 13, 2005 A u g 20, 2005 A u g 27, 2005 Sep 03, 2005 Sep 10, 2005 Sep 17, 2005 Sep 24, 2005 Oct 01, 2005 Oct 08, 2005 Oct 15, 2005 Oct 22, 2005 Oct 29, 2005 Nov 05, 2005 Nov 12, 2005 Nov 19, 2005 Nov 26, 2005 Dec 03, 2005 Dec 10, 2005 Dec 17, 2005 Dec 24, 2005 Dec 31, 2005
60 Chicago and Outside Combined Chicago Mercantile Exchange approved warehouses.
8,459 7,156 1,494 2,176 1,462 1,032 2,217 2,332 2,645 NA 1,472 492 218 1,542 1,483 2,119 2,268 1,391 632 2,382 101 631 95 44 318 86 112 42 489 675 462 116 367 1,315 181 105 76 30 55 55 56 48 215 1,480 2,280 1,403 2,087 3,304 1,989 4,633 1,919 0 4,608
-42 0 -3,754 -4,460 -162 -40 -162 -905 -108 NA -41 -452 -337 -246 -84 -81 -368 -294 -318 -1,666 -4,655 -1,841 -610 -1,088 -1,718 -1,944 -1,096 -1,866 -3,227 -5,173 -6,440 -7,415 -7,732 -5,577 -3,919 -4,945 -2,326 -1,388 -1,764 -1,400 -677 -264 -480 -169 0 -202 -162 -200 0 -201 -342 0 -287
44,042 51,197 48,937 46,653 49,515 50,507 52,648 53,332 55,868 58,843 60,274 60,315 60,196 61,492 62,891 64,929 66,829 67,926 68,241 68,957 64,403 63,193 63,473 62,429 61,029 59,171 58,186 56,314 53,624 49,126 43,148 35,848 28,483 24,220 20,483 15,643 13,392 12,034 10,326 8,981 8,360 8,263 7,998 9,309 11,438 12,639 14,442 17,668 19,656 24,088 25,665 0 34,892
8,417 7,156 -2,260 2,284 1,300 992 2,055 1,427 2,537 2,975 1,431 40 -119 1,296 1,399 2,038 1,900 1,097 314 716 -4,554 -1,210 -515 -1,044 -1,400 -1,858 -984 -1,824 -2,738 -4,498 -5,978 -7,299 -7,365 -4,262 -3,738 -4,840 -2,250 -1,358 -1,709 -1,345 -621 -97 -265 1,311 2,280 1,201 1,925 3,104 1,989 4,432 1,577 0 4,321
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
211
PORK BELLIES
Average Open Interest of Pork Belly Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
7,094 7,504 9,187 7,217 5,872 2,719 2,574 2,842 2,431 2,013
8,028 7,930 9,145 6,192 6,011 2,908 2,768 2,805 3,213 3,010
10,521 7,260 9,082 4,623 6,320 2,935 2,879 2,915 3,491 2,858
10,753 7,165 7,825 5,113 6,563 3,138 3,271 3,082 3,998 2,891
10,018 8,950 6,786 6,030 5,836 2,808 3,224 3,383 3,880 3,743
8,136 7,203 5,406 6,639 5,306 2,354 2,821 3,410 3,158 3,725
6,432 5,905 4,185 5,003 3,650 2,526 1,885 2,858 2,675 2,507
6,296 4,791 3,493 2,415 1,877 2,579 986 1,632 1,473 1,599
6,056 5,242 2,933 2,320 1,860 2,695 1,116 1,899 1,399 1,143
6,395 7,520 3,841 3,206 2,093 2,321 1,329 1,885 1,200 1,451
6,050 8,302 4,987 4,011 2,409 2,441 2,020 2,075 1,491 1,323
6,480 9,009 7,085 4,868 2,610 2,451 2,548 2,484 1,900 1,868
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Pork Belly Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
48,563 60,761 41,894 39,925 37,650 15,861 16,495 13,635 11,519 7,736
56,623 53,604 50,105 36,293 38,943 16,200 16,650 13,956 14,738 13,995
61,669 56,750 47,249 33,322 39,061 16,675 14,279 13,137 17,699 10,767
61,703 76,072 61,910 31,558 31,464 18,274 17,758 18,279 18,412 13,713
61,868 62,190 36,058 31,321 40,311 18,708 13,648 18,112 17,366 11,020
55,337 54,043 48,913 45,030 31,229 16,989 15,764 16,993 15,136 15,226
55,121 55,043 41,133 36,513 25,051 20,187 16,773 19,540 16,012 12,869
45,399 36,153 33,832 23,536 17,875 18,823 7,490 9,967 10,518 11,275
39,182 31,154 24,006 16,544 10,711 12,719 6,857 7,909 9,410 5,099
48,973 44,277 30,538 20,392 11,854 12,905 8,107 10,235 5,713 9,370
42,709 31,663 30,093 28,920 11,737 15,984 8,659 8,542 7,643 6,438
35,502 33,609 35,521 24,955 13,690 13,034 9,574 11,024 7,783 6,910
612,649 595,319 481,252 368,309 309,576 196,359 152,054 161,329 151,949 124,418
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
212
In Contracts
Jan.
PORK BELLIES
-----
Cents Per Pound 12-14 Lb., Chicago (Jan. 1949 - Sept. 1975) 12-14 Lb., Midwest (Oct. 1975 - date)
Average Price of Pork Bellies (12-14 lbs.), Central U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
52.33 72.04 43.00 48.80 80.45 66.61 70.87 78.02 79.78 78.00
56.33 68.42 45.89 50.76 82.40 66.68 70.75 79.54 90.76 82.13
64.50 59.05 42.28 46.51 85.00 78.04 72.55 85.80 103.67 84.20
69.86 80.54 54.65 49.23 93.70 85.80 63.48 84.94 109.15 78.13
79.50 82.58 57.87 53.76 97.85 77.91 58.65 96.58 117.53 87.31
72.64 80.68 63.10 53.41 91.99 91.50 65.90 97.05 113.00 68.73
89.49 86.70 68.46 47.78 90.38 102.42 81.06 102.37 118.22 77.48
88.40 85.43 72.99 67.29 75.64 98.39 67.98 85.65 99.92 94.00
68.12 72.25 57.49 57.87 63.94 81.91 57.05 83.15 92.00 89.67
63.07 57.97 42.05 70.83 57.83 61.30 76.24 84.46 88.90 84.07
65.27 53.77 39.13 67.81 51.97 63.68 75.50 78.53 91.50 78.82
70.07 47.52 36.31 71.37 58.36 69.13 78.92 81.00 87.81 75.00
69.97 70.58 51.94 57.12 77.46 78.61 69.91 86.42 99.35 81.46
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price of Pork Loins (12-14 lbs.)2 Central, U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents Per Pound
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
110.00 112.50 76.50 105.82 99.29 110.80 106.95 91.83 111.98 116.08
116.43 109.50 103.03 92.35 110.66 114.32 105.73 95.75 117.30 114.83
120.49 106.58 104.56 83.47 110.06 128.53 100.08 92.43 110.00 115.88
119.70 117.16 102.51 99.35 127.48 117.98 94.13 96.90 115.48 115.03
131.61 125.68 130.64 107.44 115.38 130.72 101.71 108.93 140.65 133.45
115.73 116.28 113.13 97.62 132.53 132.33 104.80 126.51 130.30 115.62
126.16 122.53 106.51 105.72 131.73 126.41 108.64 102.50 121.36 115.03
118.18 119.28 105.90 111.55 120.45 121.22 97.85 104.85 116.93 119.82
112.28 112.07 97.23 104.99 119.22 116.21 87.17 111.38 119.22 111.31
115.40 99.68 99.63 98.98 119.90 108.69 93.04 97.71 110.00 103.78
115.39 85.99 79.90 94.64 104.19 97.87 82.60 89.06 102.92 96.72
120.45 79.44 72.49 102.75 114.68 98.50 93.03 93.72 109.50 101.12
118.49 108.89 99.34 100.39 117.13 116.97 97.98 100.96 117.14 113.22
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
213
Potatoes The potato is a member of the nightshade family. The leaves of the potato plant are poisonous and a potato will begin to turn green if left too long in the light. This green skin contains solanine, a substance that can cause the potato to taste bitter and even cause illness in humans. In Peru, the Inca Indians were the first to cultivate potatoes around 200 BC. The Indians developed potato crops because their staple diet of corn would not grow above an altitude of 3,350 meters. In 1536, after conquering the Incas, the Spanish Conquistadors brought potatoes back to Europe. At first, Europeans did not accept the potato because it was not mentioned in the Bible and was therefore considered an “evil” food. But after Marie Antoinette wore a crown of potato flowers, it finally became a popular food. In 1897, during the Alaskan Klondike gold rush, potatoes were so valued for their vitamin C content that miners traded gold for potatoes. The potato became the first vegetable to be grown in outer space in October 1995. The potato is a highly nutritious, fat-free, cholesterolfree and sodium-free food, and is an important dietary staple in over 130 countries. A medium-sized potato contains only 100 calories. Potatoes are an excellent source of vitamin C and provide B vitamins as well as potassium, copper, magnesium, and iron. According to the US Department of Agriculture, “a diet of whole milk and potatoes would supply almost all of the food elements necessary for the maintenance of the human body.” Potatoes are one of the largest vegetable crops grown in the US, and are grown in all fifty states. The US ranks about 4th in world potato production. The top three types of potatoes grown extensively in the US are white, red, and Russets (Russets account for about two-thirds the US crop). Potatoes in the US are harvested in all four seasons, but the vast majority of the crop is harvested in fall. Potatoes harvested in the winter, spring and summer are used mainly to supplement fresh supplies of fall-harvested potatoes and are also important to the processing industries. The four principal categories for US potato exports are frozen, potato chips, fresh, and dehydrated. Fries account for approximately 95% of US frozen potato exports. Prices – The average monthly price received for pota-
toes by US farmers in 2005 rose +16.0% to $6.52 per hundred pounds, but that is still below the 15-year high of $6.99 posted in 2001. Bearish factors included favorable summer growing conditions and the emphasis on lower carbohydrate diets. Supply –The total potato crop in 2004 fell by –2.0% to 45.017 billion pounds, which was well below the record high of 51.362 billion pounds posted in 2000. The fall crop in 2004 fell by -1.4% to 40.779 billion pounds, accounting for 91% of the total crop. Stocks of the fall crop (as of Dec 1) were estimated at 25.340 billion pounds. In 2005, the spring crop fell sharply by –20.1% to 1.810 billion pounds, the summer crop fell -11.9% to 1.612 billion pounds, and the winter crop rose by +1.5% to 489 million pounds. The largest producing states for the fall 2005 crop were Idaho (with 30.6% of the crop), Washington (25.0%), Wisconsin (7.6%), Colorado (5.6%), and North Dakota (5.4%). For the spring crop, the largest producing states were Florida (with 36.2% of the crop), and California (with 31.5% of the crop). Farmers harvested 1.085 million acres in 2005, down – 7.0% from 2004 and the lowest acreage planting since 1980. The yield per harvested acre in 2005 fell by –0.5% to 38,900 pounds per acre. Demand – Total utilization of potatoes in 2004 fell slightly by -0.4% yr/yr to 45.604 billion pounds. The breakdown shows that the largest consumption category for potatoes is frozen french fries with 28.9% of total consumption, followed closely by table stock (28.6%), chips and shoestrings (11.0%), and dehydration (10.6%). US per capita consumption of potatoes in 2005 fell by –2.3% to 134.0 pounds, which was well below the record high of 145.0 pounds seen in 1996. Trade – US exports of potatoes in 2003, the latest reporting year for the series, fell sharply by –14.9% to 589.756 million pounds. US exports hit a record high of 693.196 million pounds in 2003. US imports rose +2.2% to 634.971 million pounds. The US record high for imports of 737.223 million pounds was posted in 1998.
Salient Statistics of Potatoes in the United States -- Foreign Trade4 --
Farm Disposition Yield Per ------ Acreage ------- Harvested Crop Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1 4
Planted Harvested ---- 1,000 Acres ----
1,455 1,384 1,417 1,377 1,384 1,247 1,300 1,273 1,193 1,107
1,426 1,354 1,388 1,332 1,348 1,221 1,266 1,249 1,167 1,085
Acre Cwt.
350 345 343 359 381 358 362 367 391 388
---- Used Where Grow n -----
----- Value of -----
Consumption4 Total (Fresh) Per Capita Seed Shrinkage P r o ProD o m e s t i c Stocks on Farm & L o ss duction & Feed Sold2 Price duction3 Sales Imports -- In Pounds -Jan. 1 Exports ---------- In Thousands of Cw t. ---------- $/Cwt. ----- Million $ ----- 1,000 Cwt. -- Millions of Lbs.-- Fresh Total
499,254 467,091 475,771 478,216 513,621 437,673 458,171 457,814 456,041 420,879
6,221 41,222 451,190 5,475 32,183 429,433 5,766 35,454 434,551 5,569 35,531 437,116 5,288 43,688 464,645 5,387 31,208 401,293 5,622 30,905 421,644 5,543 35,294 416,977 4,796 37,408 413,837
4.91 5.64 5.56 5.77 5.08 6.99 6.67 5.89 5.67 6.90
2,425 2,623 2,635 2,746 2,591 3,058 3,045 2,686 2,575 2,903
2,220 2,421 2,416 2,522 2,360 2,805 2,812 2,458 2,344
261,320 246,550 246,230 239,910 275,270 224,680 231,690 233,590 236,700 218,900
564,010 670,270 650,918 599,066 676,577 636,176 693,196 589,756 478,900 646,800
690,768 512,321 737,223 610,538 502,706 487,889 621,475 634,971 575,400 617,700
49.9 145.0 48.5 141.4 47.0 138.1 48.0 136.5 47.1 137.9 46.6 138.8 44.3 132.1 47.2 138.7 46.5 135.5
Preliminary. 2 For all purposes, including food, seed processing & livestock feed. 3 Farm weight basis, excluding canned and frozen potatoes. Calendar Year. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
214
POTATOES Cold Storage Stocks of All Froz en Potatoes in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1,123.7 1,098.4 1,163.5 1,151.3 1,165.4 1,189.7 1,239.8 1,131.2 1,120.4 1,074.8
1,147.2 1,111.5 1,147.2 1,219.7 1,140.9 1,228.6 1,274.2 1,173.1 1,167.3 1,168.8
1,172.5 1,180.1 1,235.7 1,272.9 1,270.1 1,254.7 1,271.5 1,211.0 1,207.4 1,152.8
1,164.6 1,177.1 1,278.3 1,278.8 1,283.4 1,220.9 1,271.4 1,217.4 1,192.5 1,091.9
1,112.1 1,195.8 1,225.1 1,236.2 1,239.4 1,280.4 1,222.7 1,150.5 1,158.7 1,174.3
1,076.4 1,213.3 1,282.8 1,255.5 1,250.4 1,270.3 1,182.3 1,106.6 1,185.9 1,178.1
1,059.7 1,271.4 1,316.5 1,234.1 1,186.3 1,355.0 1,223.5 1,181.8 1,128.7 1,190.5
907.1 1,214.3 1,234.7 1,142.3 1,180.3 1,282.6 1,106.6 1,130.4 1,117.1 1,151.4
957.8 1,130.8 1,204.5 1,169.8 1,185.7 1,197.5 1,040.6 1,070.4 1,127.0 1,121.3
1,124.9 1,270.0 1,266.8 1,235.5 1,291.5 1,323.8 1,141.4 1,151.7 1,178.6 1,180.4
1,225.2 1,354.7 1,341.0 1,307.8 1,351.5 1,338.5 1,252.2 1,248.0 1,274.9 1,200.0
1,146.3 1,313.5 1,290.5 1,254.5 1,285.9 1,297.4 1,214.4 1,232.8 1,219.3 1,122.5
Preliminary.
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Potato Crop Production Estimates, Stocks and Disappearance in the United States
In Millions of Cwt.
------------------------------ Fall Crop ------------------------------------------- 1,000 Cw t. --------------------- Crop Production Estimates -------- ------------------- Total Storage Stocks2 --------------------------- Total Crop --------- ---------- Fall Crop ---------- ------------------ Follow ing Year -----------------Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Oct. 1
-------------------------------
491.5 459.4 471.0 481.5 509.4 441.8 459.7 459.2 450.2 421.3
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
Preliminary.
2
Nov. 1 Dec. 1
447.9 417.5 429.0 435.6 463.4 400.7 415.0 413.5 407.8 382.2
295.1 278.8 280.9 275.1 310.3 258.8 264.5 267.9 271.1 251.8
Jan. 1
F eb. 1
Mar. 1
261.3 246.6 246.2 239.9 275.3 224.7 231.5 233.6 236.7 218.9
226.1 212.6 209.6 207.2 234.3 192.1 199.0 200.2 203.5 187.6
189.2 175.9 173.7 169.6 197.7 158.6 165.2 166.3 168.0 153.7
Held by growers and local dealers in the fall producing areas.
Apr. 1
May 1
147.6 103.2 134.2 92.8 131.2 87.9 128.4 86.9 153.5 109.2 120.0 81.2 125.8 83.0 126.1 85.0 128.9 88.6
Year
1
443,704 413,513 423,170 420,567 467,504 393,631 413,581 410,588 410,253 381,026
408,247 387,089 392,922 390,210 420,279 358,812 378,796 371,755 369,781
Value of Sales $ 1,000
Average Dec. 1 Price Stocks $/Cwt.
295,100 278,830 280,910 275,100 310,300 258,750 264,485 267,900 271,100 251,800
4.35 5.20 5.07 5.29 4.55 6.54 5.89 5.23 5.08 5.82
1,772,037 2,011,004 1,994,030 2,064,564 1,910,833 2,348,006 2,232,627 1,943,986 1,877,912
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Production of Potatoes by Seasonal Groups in the United States
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
D i sa p Pro- pearance duction (Sold)
In Thousands of Cwt.
- Winter - ------------- Spring ------------- --------- Summer ---------- ---------------------------------------------------------- Fall ----------------------------------------------------------CaliNew ColoMinneNorth WashingWisTotal fornia Florida Total Mexico Virginia Total rado Idaho Maine sota Dakota Oregon ton consin Total
3,273 3,431 2,980 4,070 4,960 4,115 4,206 4,027 4,818 4,892
Preliminary.
7,538 8,073 6,198 7,600 7,426 6,045 7,695 8,360 8,313 6,116
7,765 7,150 7,358 8,820 6,343 7,970 7,883 8,008 7,678 6,527
22,417 22,299 21,121 25,327 21,921 21,814 22,452 24,433 22,663 18,724
1,404 1,248 962 1,247 1,050 770 736 532 340
1,463 1,268 1,380 1,050 1,292 1,386 1,386 1,550 1,200 1,127
19,176 18,171 18,933 18,972 19,236 18,209 17,932 18,766 18,307 16,123
29,175 142,800 24,993 140,314 25,360 138,000 25,762 133,330 27,972 152,320 21,357 120,200 27,885 133,385 23,652 123,180 23,791 131,970 22,292 116,975
21,175 19,080 18,060 17,813 17,920 16,430 16,960 17,030 19,065 15,820
24,600 20,440 21,170 18,020 21,240 18,425 18,810 22,330 18,920 17,430
28,820 22,000 28,670 26,400 26,950 26,400 23,460 27,440 26,765 20,500
30,124 94,990 27,319 88,160 26,229 93,225 28,020 95,200 30,683 105,000 20,730 94,400 24,936 92,340 20,991 93,150 19,775 93,810 21,652 95,480
33,150 454,388 30,175 423,190 30,895 432,737 34,000 429,847 33,800 467,504 31,955 393,631 30,750 413,581 32,800 410,588 30,450 410,253 29,050 381,026
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Utiliz ation of Potatoes in the United States
In Thousands of Cwt.
Crop Year
---------------------------------------------------------------------- Sales -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------ Non-Sales ------------------------------------------------------ For Processing ------------------------------------ ---------- Other Sales ---------- Used on Other Other Frozen F or Chips, Total ShrinkLiveFarms French Frozen Canned Canned Starch stock Shoe- DehydTable Nonage Total Where Fries Products Potatoes Products2 & Flour ration strings Stock Sales Total & L o ss F eed S eed Sales Grown
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
124,875 131,446 131,670 125,413 134,130 139,590 122,552 131,889 133,143 130,418
1
Preliminary.
2
47,284 48,305 48,130 51,471 52,916 52,405 54,080 51,640 52,790 50,068
45,065 54,261 48,389 55,522 50,831 54,332 40,759 51,357 48,418 48,527
129,029 145,489 131,628 142,932 140,196 146,869 126,711 124,875 126,515 131,592
Hash, stews and soups.
27,073 28,972 33,397 24,964 23,593 26,723 23,598 28,951 23,870 23,003
3,342 2,785 2,822 2,730 3,311 2,368 2,590 2,744 3,086 2,843
2,385 2,167 2,675 1,964 2,394 2,709 1,722 2,089 1,168 998
1,668 3,224 1,956 12,073 1,311 3,603 1,585 3,111 1,310 3,141 1,966 14,265 1,015 3,496 1,050 3,044 1,379 2,005 1,531 1,942
25,769 24,341 25,808 24,859 25,294 23,345 24,537 24,005 24,603 22,915
409,714 451,795 429,433 434,551 437,116 464,572 401,060 421,644 416,977 413,837
4,792 29,630 35,385 4,797 41,238 47,459 4,167 32,183 37,658 4,358 35,454 41,220 4,415 35,531 41,100 3,792 43,685 48,972 4,088 31,227 36,613 4,144 30,905 36,527 4,000 35,294 40,837 3,614 37,408 42,204
445,099 499,254 467,091 475,771 478,216 513,544 437,673 458,171 457,814 456,041
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
215
POTATOES
-----
USD Per Cwt. No. 1 White, New York (Jan. 1913 - Dec. 1960) Received by Farmers, U.S. (Jan. 1961 - date)
Per Capita Utiliz ation of Potatoes in the United States
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Preliminary.
2
Total
Fresh
145.0 137.8 137.7 136.2 137.9 138.8 132.1 138.2 134.6 130.3
49.9 47.3 46.9 47.7 47.1 46.6 44.3 46.8 45.8 42.8
Forecast.
In Pounds (Farm Weight)
-------------------------------------------------------------- Processing ---------------------------------------------------------------Chips & ShoeDehystring drating Canning Total Freezing
60.2 57.8 58.1 58.5 57.5 58.2 55.2 57.2 56.4 55.1
16.4 15.5 14.7 15.9 15.9 17.6 16.5 17.3 17.0 17.1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
216
1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5
95.1 90.5 90.8 88.5 90.8 92.2 87.8 91.4 88.8 87.5
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Potatoes in the United States Year
16.7 15.5 16.5 12.4 15.7 14.8 14.7 15.5 14.1 14.0
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
6.65 4.22 5.40 5.50 5.68 4.56 6.90 6.67 5.75 5.59
6.92 4.56 5.94 5.75 5.92 5.26 7.34 6.33 5.87 5.79
7.51 4.64 6.41 6.12 6.26 5.12 8.26 6.87 6.09 6.21
7.82 4.67 6.27 6.50 6.46 5.47 8.00 6.94 6.62 6.17
8.09 5.31 6.45 6.13 6.31 5.24 8.62 6.96 6.47 6.72
8.16 5.67 6.16 6.54 6.14 5.75 9.39 6.68 6.16 7.66
7.79 5.66 5.81 7.35 6.93 6.46 10.40 6.30 6.46 8.69
5.58 6.31 5.46 6.02 5.56 7.61 8.00 5.75 5.77 6.84
4.92 5.08 4.97 5.09 4.49 6.04 6.14 5.24 5.32 6.16
4.75 4.93 4.47 4.86 4.27 5.15 5.44 5.03 4.70 5.54
4.44 5.12 4.86 5.52 4.31 5.96 6.38 5.46 5.02 6.31
4.28 5.36 5.30 5.44 4.48 6.66 6.67 5.77 5.36 6.93
4.91 5.64 5.56 5.77 5.08 6.99 6.67 5.89 5.67 6.90
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
POTATOES Potatoes Processed1 in the United States, Eight States States
Storage S e a so n
In Thousands of Cwt.
to D e c. 1
to Jan. 1
to F eb. 1
to Mar. 1
to Apr. 1
to May 1
to June 1
Entire S e a so n
I daho and OregonMalheur Co
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
26,880 27,510 27,970 29,290 20,940 28,380 24,310 24,360 22,590
33,950 34,700 34,490 35,720 27,330 34,860 30,730 30,840 28,960
41,050 42,670 40,790 43,470 33,620 41,200 36,260 36,820 35,570
49,470 51,210 49,220 50,580 40,860 48,600 43,640 44,610 42,800
57,620 60,040 57,820 58,910 47,710 56,240 49,570 51,000
65,750 68,550 66,080 66,760 54,150 63,840 56,380 58,090
---76,410 74,110 75,270 61,200 71,280 63,770 65,800
91,450 92,860 88,210 93,460 73,390 85,390 77,530 84,600
Maine2
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
1,250 1,430 1,270 1,845 1,975 2,230 1,590 1,540 1,290
1,720 1,935 1,700 2,475 2,440 2,715 2,085 1,970 1,805
2,265 2,530 2,385 3,105 3,110 3,345 2,720 2,600 2,405
2,735 2,985 3,070 3,695 3,700 3,905 3,420 3,135 3,015
3,355 3,595 3,765 4,225 4,285 4,505 4,095 3,700
3,900 4,180 4,560 4,760 4,775 5,225 4,740 4,340
---4,705 5,150 5,340 5,515 5,905 5,400 4,910
5,870 5,945 6,670 7,015 7,195 7,835 7,270 6,590
Wash. & OregonOther
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
28,580 33,630 33,320 34,770 29,320 33,680 32,670 32,305 30,310
33,990 38,890 39,620 40,970 35,310 39,490 38,520 38,130 35,895
38,690 45,650 45,500 47,720 40,540 44,190 43,610 43,570 40,545
46,400 53,290 53,350 55,250 47,910 51,920 51,210 50,730 48,285
53,720 60,930 61,080 62,860 54,970 58,710 58,500 57,140
59,780 67,180 67,230 69,850 61,360 64,300 64,160 63,855
---74,190 74,840 78,010 69,400 71,480 72,350 71,355
76,930 83,730 83,210 91,130 77,180 79,110 79,800 78,680
Other States3
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
11,645 11,570 12,455 12,665 13,170 12,675 13,835 12,490 11,820
13,960 14,465 15,035 16,215 14,925 15,530 16,505 15,000 15,030
17,115 18,030 17,950 18,975 19,000 18,735 19,590 17,965 17,980
19,905 20,850 20,855 22,095 22,115 21,780 22,685 20,910 21,180
23,515 24,850 24,305 25,410 24,655 24,810 25,920 24,150
26,365 28,190 27,220 28,695 27,815 27,405 29,480 27,480
---31,365 30,410 31,765 30,460 30,655 32,845 30,945
37,842 39,865 36,435 39,020 37,740 38,700 42,160 41,175
Total
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
68,355 74,140 75,015 78,570 65,405 76,965 72,405 70,695 66,010
83,620 89,990 90,845 95,380 80,005 92,595 87,840 85,940 81,690
99,120 108,880 106,625 113,270 96,270 107,470 102,180 100,955 96,500
118,510 128,335 126,495 131,620 114,585 126,205 120,955 119,385 115,280
138,210 149,415 146,970 151,405 131,620 144,265 138,085 135,990
155,795 168,100 165,090 170,065 148,100 160,770 154,760 153,765
---186,670 184,510 190,385 166,575 179,320 174,365 173,010
212,092 222,400 214,525 230,625 195,505 211,035 206,760 211,045
Dehydrated4
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
---15,675 14,250 14,525 12,180
---19,660 18,440 18,540 15,920
---23,710 22,050 21,875 19,515
---27,950 26,090 25,970 23,210
---31,915 30,290 30,020
---36,105 34,630 33,685
---40,455 39,070 38,505
38,581 48,940 47,750 47,805
Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin. 2 I ncludes Maine grown potatoes only. 3 Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota and Wisconsin. 4 Dehydrated products except starch and flour. I ncluded in above totals. I ncludes CO, I D, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI . Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
1
217
Rayon and Other Synthetic Fibers World Cellulosic Fiber Production
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Brazil
Bulgaria
China
CIS
Czech Republic
India
Indonesia
Ja p a n
Mexico
Taiwan
Thailand
United States
World Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052
34.4 36.4 29.2 34.6 36.2 28.7 34.2 47.2 46.8 47.9
4.7 4.2 13.1 13.5 15.0 12.2 5.6 5.2 5.0 6.0
432.0 450.0 451.5 472.1 552.3 608.6 682.1 800.2 966.1 1,150.0
92.4 108.7 99.6 88.0 83.7 64.4 72.9 78.8 79.9 109.2
31.4 27.3 26.9 17.6 7.1 7.6 7.3 9.1 9.0 9.2
251.9 242.4 264.4 248.5 297.5 251.9 285.7 283.0 311.3 360.9
179.6 212.9 222.0 195.6 207.0 205.0 214.0 223.0 250.0 260.0
198.2 184.1 164.5 135.5 126.2 107.1 68.1 68.3 67.1 96.6
13.6 14.8 15.5 13.5 14.8 22.6 16.8 14.8 12.3 13.0
144.7 148.4 142.6 143.7 141.5 127.4 114.2 121.5 134.9 145.2
61.0 60.2 45.7 55.3 65.0 65.0 71.1 73.8 79.4 80.0
213.1 208.1 165.5 134.7 158.8 103.0 80.7 75.3 66.4 75.0
2,270 2,314 2,227 2,074 2,215 2,083 2,125 2,271 2,492 2,877
1
Preliminary.
2
Producing capacity.
Source: Fiber Economics Bureau, I nc. (FEB)
World Noncellulosic Fiber Production (Except Olefin) Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
229.6 248.3 268.6 292.6 311.1 288.8 293.1 314.2 332.2 429.1
2,729.6 3,527.2 4,406.8 5,235.1 6,158.4 7,322.9 8,849.4 10,441.1 12,875.3 19,389.0
916.4 1,240.7 1,361.3 1,493.3 1,568.4 1,570.2 1,695.3 1,792.0 1,913.9 2,638.5
779.6 956.1 881.5 1,037.8 1,142.7 1,190.6 1,132.8 1,144.2 1,064.5 1,420.0
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Preliminary.
2
Producing capacity.
3
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Ja p a n
Korea
Mexico
Pakistan
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
United States3
World Total
1,399.0 1,433.6 1,363.6 1,299.7 1,307.9 1,239.5 1,129.1 1,030.3 989.2 1,296.4
2,025.2 2,403.3 2,446.0 2,592.8 2,659.0 2,471.9 2,455.7 2,418.0 2,191.3 2,565.3
584.6 612.7 591.1 571.2 586.8 536.4 509.6 457.6 468.6 567.5
312.8 322.7 427.8 478.0 503.9 528.4 581.5 612.5 570.3 808.0
2,561.0 2,932.4 3,111.5 2,927.7 3,122.9 2,977.5 3,091.3 3,060.9 2,965.0 3,494.2
533.0 575.4 542.6 694.2 769.5 784.5 852.6 872.5 910.6 1,087.2
478.5 500.7 529.8 613.5 744.5 669.2 728.1 766.9 824.4 1,010.2
3,284.1 3,420.0 3,222.7 3,169.5 3,149.2 2,687.6 2,805.0 2,693.2 2,823.9 3,172.3
19,765 22,396 23,254 24,885 26,219 26,243 28,052 29,432 31,689 42,555
Beginning 1995; data for USA and Canada.
World Production of Synthetic Fibers
Source: Fiber Economics Bureau, I nc. (FEB)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------ Noncellulosic Fiber Production (Except Olefin) ------------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
------------------- By Fibers ------------------Nylon Acrylic Other & & Modacrylic Aramid Polyester Fibers3
2,604 2,706 2,656 2,513 2,634 2,562 2,708 2,693 2,727 3,228
Preliminary.
2
3,858 4,028 3,792 3,800 4,117 3,784 3,941 3,959 4,076 4,907
13,047 15,406 16,539 17,879 19,155 19,563 21,048 22,358 24,401 33,800
Producing capacity.
256 256 268 294 313 335 350 422 484 621 3
---------- World Total ---------Yarn & Staple, ------------------------------ Glass Fiber Production ------------------------------ Cigarette Tow & MonofilOther United ExTow Proaments Fiberfill Total Europe Japan Americas States China USSR Total duction
10,529 12,093 12,959 13,660 14,771 14,968 15,993 16,882 18,256 25,608
9,236 10,303 10,295 10,825 11,448 11,276 12,059 12,550 13,433 16,947
19,765 22,396 23,254 24,485 26,219 26,243 28,052 29,432 31,689 42,555
585 610 660 674 728 701 718 724 740 740
Alginate, azion, spandex, saran, etc.
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
Preliminary.
218
168.9 145.9 111.2 111.0 109.9 81.3 72.7 66.0 63.0
6.3 4.1 3.5 3.0 5.1 6.7 2.3 2.0 2.0
175.2 150.0 114.7 114.0 115.0 88.0 75.0 68.0 65.0
39.3 42.9 38.1 28.2 23.2 14.5 12.7 11.7 12.2
Source: Fiber Economice Bureau, I nc. (FEB)
208.2 188.8 149.3 139.3 133.1 95.8 85.4 77.7 75.2
94 100 96 96 96 93 96 100 104 104
996 1,007 1,018 1,126 1,143 1,016 1,222 1,307 1,363 1,363
98 75 60 60 60 67 90 120 150 150
25 27 30 30 28 32 34 37 40 40
2,387 2,431 2,416 2,538 2,580 2,431 2,661 2,790 2,903 2,903
584 582 551 544 570 590 603 595 604 -----
Source: Fiber Economics Bureau, I nc. (FEB)
Artificial (Cellulosic) Fiber Distribution in the United States ------------------------------ Yarn & Monofilament ------------------------Domestic -------------- Producers' Shipments -------------ConDomestic Exports Total Imports sumption
316 328 300 300 280 273 251 250 250 250
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------ Staple & Tow -----------------------------Domestic --------------- Producers' Shipments -------------ConDomestic Exports Total Imports sumption
225.4 205.3 184.4 168.8 162.3 117.2 91.1 86.7 77.4
20.0 60.1 31.4 29.9 69.3 35.5 12.6 13.1 9.9
245.4 265.4 215.8 198.7 231.5 152.7 103.7 99.8 87.2
35.3 51.6 47.4 47.5 37.5 33.9 56.2 44.5 63.9
260.7 256.9 231.8 216.3 199.7 151.2 147.4 131.2 141.3
Glass F i ber Shipments
2,196.0 2,275.0 ----------------------
RAYON AND OTHER SYNTHETIC FIBERS Man-Made Fiber Production in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
-- Artificial (Cellulosic) Fibers --- Rayon & Acetate --
Year
Staple & Tow
Total Cellulosic
219 187 144 115 114 ----------------
245 266 216 199 232 153 104 100 -------
464 453 360 314 345 153 104 100 -------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
--------------------------------------------------------- Synthetic (Noncellulosic) Fibers ---------------------------------------------------------
Filament Yarn & Monofilament
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
---------- Yarn & Monofilament ---------Total Nylon Polyester Olefin Yarn
1,917 2,039 1,887 1,896 1,947 1,642 1,772 1,762 1,837 1,788
1,571 1,644 1,541 1,595 1,509 1,188 1,218 1,145 1,166 994
1,951 2,058 2,212 2,278 2,406 2,181 2,331 2,349 2,383 2,394
5,438 5,740 5,640 5,769 5,860 5,011 5,321 5,255 5,386 5,175
---------------------- Staple & Tow ---------------------Acrylic Total & ModNylon Polyester Olefin Staple acrylic
883 797 799 787 733 606 681 697 680 598
2,260 2,446 2,357 2,291 2,405 2,040 2,050 1,886 2,064 2,019
465 461 346 316 339 310 340 270 240 140
610 623 712 797 816 721 749 680 676 692
Total Total ManuNoncel- factured lulosic Fibers
4,217 9,655 4,327 10,067 4,214 9,853 4,192 9,960 4,293 10,153 3,676 8,687 3,820 9,141 3,533 8,788 3,660 9,047 3,449 8,624
Total Glass F i ber
9,979 10,465 10,314 10,263 10,236 ----------------
2,326 2,408 2,490 2,570 2,738 2,638 2,759 2,789 -------
Source: Fiber Economics Bureau, I nc. (FEB)
Domestic Distribution of Synethic (Noncellulosic) Fibers in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------------- Staple & Tow -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yarn & Monofilament ------------------------------------- ------------------------- Producers' Shipments ------------------------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
------------------ Domestic -----------------PolyNylon ester Olefin Total Exports
1,801 1,877 1,790 1,765 1,795 1,606 1,668 1,666 1,722
Preliminary.
1,429 1,528 1,426 1,463 1,353 1,189 1,113 1,051 1,061
1,954 2,015 2,167 2,251 2,371 2,144 2,289 2,318 2,347
5,184 5,421 5,383 5,480 5,519 4,938 5,070 5,035 5,130
251 239 218 244 250 155 189 179 249
Dome- ---------------------- Domestic ---------------------stic Acrylic Poly- & ModConTotal Imports sumption Nylon ester acrylic Olefin Total Exports
Domestic Consumption
-------------------- Producers' Shipments ---------------------
5,435 5,659 5,601 5,724 5,769 5,093 5,259 5,214 5,379
482 589 637 719 790 697 765 766 785
5,666 6,010 6,020 6,199 6,309 5,635 5,834 5,801 5,915
844 757 763 756 674 607 637 673 658
2,016 2,250 2,105 2,138 2,174 1,881 1,823 1,688 1,788
288 289 267 233 244 228 255 211 200
515 542 596 726 757 673 723 635 641
3,662 3,837 3,732 3,852 3,849 3,389 3,438 3,206 3,287
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
Total Imports
4,128 4,229 4,072 4,190 4,176 3,698 3,791 3,452 3,583
608 673 777 788 727 757 875 829 766
4,270 4,510 4,509 4,640 4,576 4,146 4,312 4,035 4,053
Source: Fiber Economice Bureau, I nc. (FEB)
Mill Consumption of Fiber & Products and Per Capita Consumption in the U.S.
Year
465 392 340 338 327 308 353 246 296
-------- Cellulosic Fibers Yarn & Monofil- Staple Net ament & Tow Waste
208 189 149 139 133 96 85 78 75
261 257 232 216 200 151 147 131 141
4.0 2.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.5
-------- ---- Noncellulosic Fibers ---Total Total Cellu- NoncelluNet Noncellulosic losic losic Waste
473 9,936 448 10,520 383 10,529 357 10,839 335 10,884 249 9,838 235 10,050 210 9,778 218 9,934
100 103 165 177 190 193 280 266 251
10,036 10,623 10,694 11,016 11,075 10,031 10,329 10,045 10,185
Total Manufactured Fibers2
Other Cotton Wool Fibers3
10,509 11,071 11,077 11,373 11,409 10,281 10,564 10,255 10,403
5,340 5,448 5,225 4,996 4,754 3,983 3,609 3,115 2,994
164 164 126 99 101 87 56 43 38
46.0 42.8 44.2 40.1 38.2 30.1 28.7 35.4 35.2
In Millions of Pounds
Per Capita4 Mill Consumption (Lbs.) ManTotal All Grand made Other Total Fibers2 Cotton Wool Fibers3 Fibers
16,059 16,726 16,472 16,509 16,302 14,381 14,257 13,449 13,469
43.5 45.7 46.4 48.0 48.5 44.5 47.6 48.6 49.2
29.7 31.9 33.7 34.5 34.9 33.0 34.4 34.5 34.8
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5
1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.5 3.1
76.3 80.9 83.1 85.5 86.8 80.5 85.2 86.9 88.6
Preliminary. 2 Excludes Glass Fiber. 3 I ncludes silk, linen, jute and sisal & others. 4 Mill consumption plus inports less exports of semimanufactured and unmanufactured products. Source: Fiber Economics Bureau, I nc. (FEB)
1
Producer Price Index of Grey Synthetic Broadw ovens Year
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 1
(1982 = 100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
114.3 115.6 115.7 119.0 119.6 113.5 114.8 114.3 117.9 120.1
112.0 115.7 114.7 119.9 119.1 112.8 116.8 114.1 118.3 120.4
112.2 115.6 114.4 120.3 119.1 112.9 116.7 116.9 118.3 119.7
112.2 115.7 114.1 120.9 119.2 113.2 116.3 117.9 117.9 120.2
112.1 115.5 114.3 121.8 117.1 113.2 116.6 116.8 118.4 119.8
113.1 115.6 113.9 122.0 118.4 113.3 117.1 115.7 119.0 119.7
114.7 115.7 114.8 122.6 118.0 113.1 115.4 116.1 118.8 118.0
115.0 115.2 116.4 122.0 118.0 113.3 114.8 117.1 118.5 118.1
115.0 115.3 116.5 121.7 116.9 114.1 116.9 116.9 119.4 116.7
115.8 115.6 116.5 120.8 117.3 111.8 116.4 117.2 118.7 114.2
115.9 115.8 116.8 119.4 115.2 112.9 114.7 116.6 117.6 115.1
115.3 116.1 118.2 119.9 114.5 113.8 116.2 117.0 119.6 115.0
114.0 115.6 115.5 120.9 117.7 113.2 116.1 116.4 118.5 118.1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS) (0337-03)
219
Rice still below the record high of 607.880 million metric tons in 1999-2000. The world’s largest rice producers were China with 30% of world production in 2004-05, India with 21% of world production, Indonesia with 9%, Bangladesh with 7%, Vietnam with 5%, and Thailand with 4%. US production of rice in 2005-06 fell –4.4% yr/yr to 220.7 million cwt. (hundred pounds), down from last year’s record high of 230.8 million cwt.
Rice is a grain that is cultivated on every continent except Antarctica and is the primary food for half the people in the world. Rice cultivation probably originated as early as 10,000 BC in Asia. Rice is grown at varying altitudes (sea level to about 3,000 meters), in varying climates (tropical to temperate), and on dry to flooded land. The growth duration of rice plants is 3-6 months, depending on variety and growing conditions. Rice is harvested by hand in developing countries or by combines in industrialized countries. Asian countries produce about 90% of rice grown worldwide. Rough rice futures and options are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
Demand – World utilization of rice in 2004-05 was unchanged at a record high of 412.009 million metric tons. US rice consumption in 2004-05 rose +5.4% yr/yr to a new record high of 126.2 million cwt. (hundred pounds).
Prices – Rough rice prices on the CBOT nearest futures chart in early 2005 continued the decline that began in mid 2004 to hit a 2-year low of $6.11 per 100 pounds (cwt or hundredweight) in July of 2005. Rough rice prices then rallied in the latter half of 2005 to close the year at a 1-1/2 year high of $7.935. Regarding cash prices, the average monthly price of rice received by farmers in the US in the first 5 months of the 2005-06 marketing year (i.e., August through December 2005) fell by -3.4% yr/yr $7.09 per hundred pounds (cwt.).
Trade – World exports of rice in 2004-05 fell -6.9% yr/ yr to 24.370 million metric tons, which was below the record high of 28.617 million metric tons posted in 2002-03. The world’s largest rice exporters are Thailand with 34% of world exports, Vietnam with 16%, the US with 14%, India with 11%, and Pakistan with 8%. US rice imports in 2005-06 rose by +6.1% yr/yr to 14.05 million cwt. (hundred pounds), but still below the record of 15.0 million cwt. seen in 200304. US rice exports in 2005-06 rose by +9.6% yr/yr to 121.0 cwt., but that is still below the record of 124.6 million cwt. posted in 2002-03.
Supply – World rice production in the 2004-05 marketing year rose +2.1% to 592.525 million metric tons, but was
World Rice Supply and Distribution Year
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------------------------- Imports ---------------------------------------------- ---------------- Utiliz ation ----------------- ------------ Ending Stocks -----------European Saudi Brazil Indonesia Union Iran Nigeria Arabia Total China India Total China India Total
654 625 1,117 813 550 700
Preliminary.
2
1,500 3,500 2,750 650 500 800
Estimate.
3
1,204 1,138 1,198 1,020 1,000 975 Forecast.
765 964 900 950 950 950
1,250 1,906 1,897 1,448 1,369 1,700
Year
Brazil
Burma
China
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
37,633 36,469 37,784 39,232 38,854 40,054
10,196 10,393 10,368 12,807 13,200 11,471
18,571 18,000 18,600 18,500 16,500 18,000
187,909 177,580 174,543 160,660 179,090 182,000
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
1
127,483 140,024 107,741 132,433 127,978 127,513
Australia
Burma
378 134 175 294 325 350
617 247 150 175 115 450
670 1,002 388 130 175 150
1,847 1,963 2,583 880 700 700
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
392,327 409,205 404,083 413,128 413,638 413,239
94,103 82,169 67,224 44,928 35,091 27,191
25,051 24,480 11,000 10,800 8,500 9,000
150,356 139,360 110,321 86,024 73,069 66,103
51,500 51,101 51,800 54,301 53,101 54,109
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Pakistan
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
World Total
11,863 11,321 11,111 9,740 10,912 10,989
7,197 7,407 6,687 6,151 6,737 6,435
7,204 5,824 6,719 7,273 7,531 8,101
12,515 13,000 13,000 14,154 14,531 14,615
25,844 26,514 26,058 27,289 25,864 27,121
31,020 31,873 32,617 33,458 34,283 34,091
593,156 593,790 562,079 583,752 598,419 605,669
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Preliminary.
220
India Indonesia
European China Union
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
75,960 87,611 79,860 85,380 83,110 81,000
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Exports of Rice (Milled Basis) Year
134,356 134,581 134,800 135,000 135,100 135,200
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Banglad e sh
Preliminary.
21,849 25,985 26,190 24,860 26,133 25,585
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Production of Rough Rice
1
992 1,053 938 1,150 1,500 1,250
286 336 250 225 175 175
Guyana
India
Pakistan
Thailand
Uruguay
Vietnam
United States
World Total
167 175 150 175 175 175
1,685 6,300 5,440 3,100 4,500 3,500
2,429 1,628 1,992 1,950 2,450 2,825
7,521 7,245 7,552 10,137 7,250 7,000
736 475 615 725 775 625
3,528 3,245 3,795 4,295 5,100 4,500
2,590 2,954 3,860 3,310 3,540 3,842
24,077 26,848 28,617 27,411 27,603 26,188
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
RICE
-----
---
USD Per Cwt. Fancy (Honduras), New Orleans (Oct. 1914 - Dec. 1924) Fancy (Blue Rose), New Orleans (Jan. 1925 - Dec. 1933) Medium to Good (Blue Rose), New Orleans (Jan. 1934 - July 1947) Fancy, No. 2 Zenith Milled, New Orleans (Aug. 1947 - Apr. 1972) No. 2 Medium, Southwest Louisiana (May 1972 - date) Received by Farmers, U.S. (Aug. 1982 - date)
Average Wholesale Price of Rice No. 2 (Medium)1 Southw est Louisiana Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062 1
In Dollars Per Cwt. Bagged
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
19.50 18.25 18.35 18.60 13.00 11.06 11.13 16.75 18.60 17.00
19.50 18.35 18.75 17.50 12.34 11.50 11.50 17.70 15.69 17.50
19.25 18.63 19.00 14.88 12.48 11.50 12.25 19.00 15.25 18.45
19.25 19.00 19.00 14.70 12.41 11.50 12.25 19.75 15.13 20.13
19.00 19.00 20.00 14.67 12.38 11.08 12.25 21.08 15.13
18.81 19.00 20.00 14.35 12.38 11.50 12.63 21.38 15.03
19.19 19.00 20.00 14.00 12.25 11.50 13.50 22.25 14.88
19.25 18.20 20.00 13.83 12.00 11.44 14.05 22.47 14.88
19.25 18.00 20.00 13.75 11.82 11.03 14.25 22.50 14.88
19.25 18.13 20.00 13.40 11.53 11.13 14.44 23.25 14.88
18.40 18.50 20.00 12.50 11.25 11.13 14.50 21.60 14.88
19.00 18.50 20.00 12.63 11.25 11.13 14.88 21.50 14.94
19.14 18.55 19.59 14.57 12.09 11.29 13.13 20.77 15.35 18.27
U.S. No. 2 -- broken not to exceed 4%.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Rice (Rough) in the United States Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average2
10.10 9.94 9.01 6.91 5.72 5.10 3.71 5.47 8.96 6.54
10.00 9.92 9.42 6.17 5.53 4.78 3.94 6.18 8.47 6.95
9.66 10.00 9.31 5.91 5.57 4.36 3.69 6.44 7.60 6.94
9.41 9.82 9.02 5.96 5.72 4.08 3.70 6.99 7.36 7.44
9.82 9.77 9.10 6.01 5.69 4.07 4.13 7.57 7.37 7.49
9.95 9.57 9.09 5.98 5.86 4.30 4.66 8.57 7.39 7.67
10.10 9.75 9.02 5.82 5.72 4.16 4.24 8.23 6.90 7.73
10.20 9.67 8.93 5.64 5.66 3.99 4.31 8.45 6.88
10.30 9.40 8.49 5.75 5.68 3.94 4.61 8.65 6.97
10.20 9.38 8.21 5.62 5.40 3.98 4.84 9.30 6.94
9.90 9.58 8.25 5.69 5.14 3.92 5.43 9.37 6.74
10.00 9.58 8.26 5.59 5.32 3.81 5.31 8.79 6.78
9.96 9.70 8.89 5.93 5.61 4.21 4.38 7.83 7.36 7.25
2
Weighted average by sales.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
221
RICE Salient Statistics of Rice, Rough & Milled (Rough Equivalent) in the United States
In Millions of Cwt.
-------------- Government Support Program ------------- Loan Rate ($ Per Cw t.) --------------------------------- Disappearance ----------------------------Put Crop 3 -------------------- Supply -------------------Total Under ---------- Rough ---------CCC Year Disap- Stocks Price ResiAll Milled Beginning Stocks ProTotal ------------- Domestic ------------Total dual Exports pearance July 31 Support Long Medium Classes Long Aug. 1 Aug. 1 duction Imports Supply Food Brewers Seed
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
27.5 28.5 39.0 26.8 23.7 37.7
190.9 215.3 211.0 199.9 232.4 223.2
10.9 13.2 14.8 15.0 13.2 13.5
229.2 113.4 256.9 119.3 264.8 109.7 241.7 110.8 269.3 117.0 274.4 123.0
4.1 4.0 3.7 4.1 4.2 3.9
4 4 4 4 4 4
117.5 123.3 113.4 115.0 121.2 126.9
83.2 94.7 124.6 103.1 110.4 121.0
4 4 4 4 4 4
200.7 218.0 238.0 218.0 231.6 247.9
0 0 0 0 0 0
-------------------
6.66 6.67 6.66 6.64 6.66 6.66
6.12 6.09 6.06 6.09 6.04 6.04
6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
10.71 10.69 10.66 10.65 10.61 10.54
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Loan rate for each class of rice is the sum of the whole kernels' loan rate weighted by its milling yield (average 56%) and the broken kernels' loan rate weighted by its milling yield (average 12%). 4 I ncluded in food. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Acreage, Yield, Production and Prices of Rice in the United States Yield Acreage Harvested
Milled Rice, Average
Per Harvested
Wholesale Prices ----- C.I.F. at Rotterdam ------
Production
Value U.S. of Pro- ---- ($ Per Cw t.) ---No. 24 Thai "A"5 Thai "B"5 duction ArkanHous$1,000 sa s 2 ton3 ------ $ Per Metric Ton -------
---------- (1,000 Acres) ---------- --- Acre (In Lbs.) --- --------------- 1,000 Cw t. --------------Crop Year
Southern States California
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
2,491 2,843 2,679 2,490 2,735 2,856
548 471 528 507 590 508
United States California
United States
Southern States California
3,039 3,314 3,207 2,997 3,325 3,364
6,281 6,496 6,578 6,670 6,942 6,636
147,351 176,780 167,971 160,861 180,059 186,151
7,940 8,170 8,140 7,700 8,600 7,300
43,521 38,490 42,989 39,036 50,759 37,084
United States
190,872 215,270 210,960 199,897 230,818 223,235
1,049,961 925,055 979,628 1,628,948 1,701,822 1,789,225
11.75 11.25 13.39 21.18 14.36 18.46
14.92 12.88 11.76 17.60 17.46 16.11
Preliminary. 2 F.O.B. mills, Arkansas, medium. 3 Houston, Texas (long grain). 4 Milled, 4%, container, FAS. NA = Not available. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
U.S. Exports of Milled Rice, by Country of Destination
5
274 208 221 358 316 293
-------------------
234 225 NA NA NA NA
SWR, 100%, bulk.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year Beginning October
Canada
Haiti
Iran
Ivory C o a st
Jamaica
Mexico
Netherlands
Peru
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Total
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051
181.1 182.4 174.5 168.6 208.4 230.3
221.0 212.3 247.1 324.8 242.2 285.6
---------10.3 -------
21.1 22.2 25.0 65.8 32.7 32.6
38.2 32.0 28.7 60.7 44.5 42.1
525.8 516.0 740.4 740.6 738.0 725.0
60.6 50.8 52.9 71.7 30.4 43.7
19.5 1.0 11.2 23.8 3.5 48.6
164.8 156.3 97.0 97.6 87.7 109.5
70.6 65.9 67.3 73.1 .0 .6
30.2 33.2 18.0 26.2 10.6 18.0
141.9 104.0 106.0 126.4 100.2 128.4
3,307 3,058 3,536 4,469 3,690 4,290
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
U.S. Rice Exports by Export Program
F i sca l Year
P L 480
Section 416
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
209 144 241 263 129 125
147 30 56 0 0 0
In Thousands of Metric Tons
CCC Credit Programs2
CCC African Reliel Exports
225 ----------------
0 0 0 0 0 0
EEP3
Export Programs4
Exports Outside Specified Export Programs
Total U.S. Rice Exports
% Export Programs as a Share of Total Exports
0 0 0 0 0 0
393 231 356 310 214 149
2,914 2,828 3,181 4,169 3,484 4,150
3,307 3,059 3,537 4,478 3,699 4,299
12 8 10 7 6 4
Preliminary. 2 May not completely reflect exports made under these programs. 3 Sales not shipments. 4 adjusted for estimated overlap between CCC export credit and EEP shipments. Source: Economice Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Production of Rice (Rough) in the United States, by Type and Variety Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1
Preliminary.
222
Long Grain
Medium Grain
Short Grain
Total
113,629 124,485 139,328 151,863 128,756
56,901 57,091 43,404 50,540 59,514
1,069 1,416 1,711 3,624 2,602
171,599 182,992 184,443 206,027 190,872
In Thousands of Cwt.
Year
Long Grain
Medium Grain
Short Grain
Total
2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
167,555 157,243 149,011 168,901 173,171
46,105 52,201 48,180 58,689 44,136
1,610 1,516 2,706 3,228 3,424
215,270 210,960 199,897 230,818 220,731
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Rubber Rubber is a natural or synthetic substance characterized by elasticity, water repellence, and electrical resistance. Pre-Columbian Native South Americans discovered many uses for rubber such as containers, balls, shoes, and waterproofing for fabrics such as coats and capes. The Spaniards tried to duplicate these products for many years but were unsuccessful. The first commercial application of rubber began in 1791 when Samuel Peal patented a method of waterproofing cloth by treating it with a solution of rubber and turpentine. In 1839, Charles Goodyear revolutionized the rubber industry with his discovery of a process called vulcanization, which involves combining rubber and sulfur and heating the mixture. Natural rubber is obtained from latex, a milky white fluid, from the Hevea Brasiliensis tree. The latex is gathered by cutting a chevron shape through the bark of the rubber tree. The latex is collected in a small cup, with approximately 1 fluid ounce per cutting. The cuttings are usually done every other day until the cuttings reach the ground. The tree is then allowed to renew itself before a new tapping is started. The collected latex is strained, diluted with water, and treated with acid to bind the rubber particles together. The rubber is then pressed between rollers to consolidate the rubber into slabs or thin sheets and is air-dried or smoke-dried for shipment. During World War II, natural rubber supplies from the Far East were cut off, and the rubber shortage accelerated the development of synthetic rubber in the US. Synthetic rubber is produced by chemical reactions, condensation or polymerization, of certain unsaturated hydrocarbons. Synthetic rubber is made of raw material derived from petroleum, coal, oil, natural gas, and acetylene and is almost identical to natural rubber in chemical and physical properties. Natural rubber and Rubber Index futures are traded on the Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME). The OME’s natural rubber contract is based on the RSS3 ribbed smoked sheet No. 3. The OME’s Rubber Index Futures Contract is based on a composite of 8 component grades from 6 rubber markets in the world. Rubber futures are also traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).
ber (No.1 smoked sheets, ribbed, plantation rubber), basis in New York, rose +12.2% to a record high of 75.64 cents per pound in 2005. A 3-decade low of 33.88 cents was seen as recently as 2001 which was a recessionary year. Supply – World production of rubber in 2005 rose +0.4% to 8.682 million metric tons from 8.645 million metric tons in 2004. The world’s largest producers of rubber in 2005 were Thailand with 33.5% of world production, Indonesia (26.1%), India (8.9%), Malaysia (13.0%), China (4.9%), and Vietnam (5.0%). In 2005 world production of synthetic rubber fell by –0.1% to 11.965 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of synthetic rubber in 2005 were the US with 19.8% of world production, Japan (13.6%), Russia (9.6%), and Germany (7.0%). US production of synthetic rubber in 2005 increased by +1.3% to 2.366 metric tons from the 13-year low of 2.064 million metric tons posted in 2001. US production of car and truck tires in 2005 fell by –4.3% to 223.203 million tires from 233.259 million tires in 2004. Demand – World consumption of natural and synthetic rubber in 2005 rose by +5.1% to 8.742 million metric tons from 8.319 million metric tons in 2004. The largest consumers of natural and synthetic rubber in 2005 were the US with 13.3% of consumption, Japan with 9.8%, Brazil with 3.6%, France with 2.7%, and Germany with 3.0%. US consumption of natural rubber in 2005 rose by +1.3% to 1.159 million metric tons, up from the 11-year low of 974,100 metric tons in 2001. US consumption of synthetic rubber in 2005 rose by +2.5% to 1.955 million metric tons from 1.907 million metric tons in 2004. Trade – World exports of natural rubber in 2005, rose +2.2% to a record 6.309 million metric tons. The world’s largest exporters of natural rubber in 2005 were Thailand with 40.9% of world exports, Indonesia with 32.9%, and Malaysia with 10.5%. Together, these three countries accounted for over 84% of all world exports. US imports of natural rubber in 2005 rose +1.4% to 1.159 million tons, up from the 12-year low of 972,100 tons posted in 2001. US exports of synthetic rubber in 2005 rose by +2.4% to a record high of 1.105 million metric tons.
Prices – The average monthly price for spot crude rub-
U.S. Imports of Natural Rubber (Includes Latex & Guayule) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
105.4 94.2 104.4 91.8 127.4 85.2 104.8 104.1 116.2 99.8
86.1 92.0 76.6 90.7 88.2 69.1 71.2 86.2 76.6 101.9
82.2 93.9 102.8 93.4 114.1 93.9 79.2 106.8 101.7 97.1
90.6 88.2 81.0 101.6 107.9 80.0 90.8 99.8 96.5 115.5
65.1 93.0 98.0 84.8 114.9 74.9 106.1 91.4 112.6 80.9
70.4 65.1 92.9 80.0 120.1 63.8 92.2 97.6 92.0 95.7
79.0 76.8 96.4 76.6 65.9 101.1 108.6 94.5 87.6 84.5
81.0 90.1 100.8 112.2 96.2 109.2 109.7 67.4 81.7 91.7
82.1 87.5 123.2 88.7 79.2 69.9 81.1 100.1 85.5 113.5
113.6 86.8 104.8 127.5 96.2 92.4 94.7 70.6 120.4 92.2
73.5 87.6 84.5 83.1 92.2 69.2 83.0 72.3 71.0 82.7
85.0 89.0 111.4 85.9 89.3 63.4 88.9 86.2 101.8 103.7
1,014.0 1,044.2 1,176.8 1,116.3 1,191.6 972.1 1,110.3 1,077.0 1,143.6 1,159.2
Preliminary.
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
223
RUBBER World Production1 of Rubber Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------------------------------------- Natural ---------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------- Synthetic -------------------------------IndoSri World GerUnited World China India nesia Malaysia Lanka Thailand Vietnam Total many Ja p a n States Russia Total
430.0 444.0 450.0 460.0 445.0 464.0 468.0 480.0 486.0 428.0
540.1 580.3 591.1 620.1 629.0 631.5 640.8 707.1 742.6 770.5
1,527.0 1,504.8 1,714.0 1,599.2 1,501.1 1,607.3 1,630.0 1,792.2 2,066.2 2,269.8
I ncluding rubber in the form of latex.
2
1,082.5 971.1 885.7 768.9 927.6 882.1 889.8 985.6 1,168.7 1,130.7 Preliminary.
112.5 105.8 95.7 96.6 87.6 86.2 90.5 92.0 94.7 94.7
1,970.4 2,032.7 2,075.9 2,154.6 2,346.4 2,319.6 2,615.1 2,876.0 2,984.3 2,910.8
220.0 212.0 220.0 262.0 293.0 331.0 372.0 380.0 415.0 435.5
160.7 161.0 185.3 184.1 226.6 215.9 233.4 255.5 281.5 310.9
Preliminary.
775.1 724.9 621.0 737.0 837.1 919.2 919.0 1,070.0 1,116.1 1,147.1
9,760 10,080 9,840 10,336 10,819 10,485 10,882 11,448 11,978 11,965
182.2 192.3 223.0 240.0 270.0 282.0 230.7 300.2 230.1 233.9
193.0 214.0 247.0 226.0 250.0 246.0 247.0 260.3 242.3 260.1
714.5 713.0 707.3 734.2 751.8 729.2 749.0 784.2 814.8 859.4
111.0 119.0 139.0 127.0 122.5 98.0 76.0 90.9 86.3 82.3
1,001.7 1,044.1 1,157.4 1,116.3 1,194.8 974.1 1,110.8 1,078.5 1,143.6 1,159.2
6,110 6,470 6,580 6,646 7,315 7,223 7,546 7,967 8,319 8,742
436.1 416.2 451.4 434.3 481.5 464.5 469.3 493.2 420.1 350.7
497.0 509.0 582.0 565.0 632.0 613.0 612.0 615.0 624.5 635.0
Preliminary.
1,124.5 1,163.0 1,115.7 1,132.9 1,137.5 1,085.1 1,096.0 1,110.7 1,146.3 1,180.9
230.0 235.0 177.0 189.0 188.0 167.0 210.0 203.9 211.2 206.5
2,186.6 2,322.7 2,354.4 2,217.5 2,189.5 1,839.5 1,895.0 1,926.4 1,906.8 1,954.6
9,590 10,010 9,830 10,196 10,764 10,253 10,723 11,381 11,860 11,917
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
Total Synthetic
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1 1
2,486.0 2,589.0 2,600.0 2,354.0 2,396.8 2,062.1 2,164.4 2,270.1 2,325.1 2,365.8
In Thousands of Metric Tons
World Stocks1 of Natural & Synthetic Rubber (by Countries) on January 1 Year
1,519.9 1,591.5 1,520.1 1,576.7 1,591.7 1,465.5 1,522.0 1,577.4 1,616.1 1,626.9
--------------------------------------------------- Natural -------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- Synthetic ---------------------------------------GerUnited United World GerUnited United World Brazil France many Japan Kingdom States Total France many Japan Kingdom States Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
548.1 555.1 619.0 720.1 849.2 828.4 869.2 888.0 905.0 842.5
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
World Consumption of Natural and Synthetic Rubber Year
6,440 6,470 6,820 6,872 6,739 7,261 7,345 7,992 8,645 8,682
1,057 1,081 1,116 1,103 1,159 1,139 1,161 1,127 1,040 988
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------------- In Producing Countries --------------------------------------- ------ In Consuming Countries (Reported Stocks) -----IndoSri ThaiTotal United Africa nesia Malaysia Lanka land Vietnam Natural Brazil India Ja p a n States Total
20.5 25.5 25.3 28.2 28.9 29.1 27.7 28.0 29.6 33.1
70 40 30 33 48 26 25 15 18 20
190.3 209.5 234.2 236.6 151.1 138.2 135.6 162.6 195.0 166.2
17.6 17.9 18.6 18.6 18.7 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
147.7 159.4 209.5 250.9 188.6 213.0 196.7 202.2 249.4 258.0
28.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 27.0 26.0 19.0 14.0 17.0 20.0
510 510 750 929 595 566 482 471 559 549
13.0 13.0 13.0 34.0 40.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0
123.4 157.0 194.0 215.1 203.3 225.5 151.7 123.3 122.9 65.0
86.8 87.2 58.0 79.1 95.2 46.9 65.0 73.0 58.1 47.3
79.3 57.2 70.4 46.0 44.6 42.6 42.1 40.6 40.9 40.9
427 385 406 475 484 429 301 279 264 245
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
Net Exports of Natural Rubber from Producing Areas
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Cambodi a
Guatemala
Indonesia
Liberia
Malaysia
Nigeria
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam
Other Africa2
Other A si a 3
World Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
31.0 32.0 29.0 42.0 39.0 38.0 40.0 41.0 40.5 41.0
29.2 28.3 24.6 27.7 31.8 33.0 40.1 41.0 52.9 54.0
1,434.3 1,403.8 1,641.2 1,494.6 1,379.6 1,496.9 1,502.2 1,660.5 1,875.1 2,074.5
30.0 67.2 75.0 75.0 73.5 71.7 73.0 71.5 71.3 69.1
709.7 586.8 424.9 435.5 196.4 162.1 430.0 509.7 679.9 659.9
48.8 53.0 46.5 38.0 36.0 30.0 24.0 19.0 24.0 23.0
72.1 61.4 41.4 42.7 32.6 32.0 36.1 35.2 40.3 29.9
1,763.0 1,837.1 1,839.4 1,886.3 2,166.2 2,042.1 2,354.4 2,573.4 2,637.1 2,580.7
194.5 194.2 181.0 218.0 254.0 283.0 325.0 325.0 352.0 371.0
166.7 186.1 181.7 200.4 205.7 212.4 199.8 210.8 222.0 233.0
65.3 58.6 62.8 60.5 62.8 76.5 83.2 94.7 84.3 86.3
4,380 4,580 4,650 4,648 4,977 5,113 5,233 5,687 6,175 6,309
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes Cameroon, Cote d'I voire, Gabon, Ghana and Zaire. Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
1
224
3
I ncludes Myanmar, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines.
RUBBER
-----
Cents Per pound Para, New York (1860 - 1907) Smoked Sheets, New York (Jan. 1908 - date)
Average Spot Crude Rubber Prices (Smoked Sheets1) in New York Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
40.21 38.99 38.16 35.98 32.21 47.95 65.63 64.20
43.96 38.58 40.36 35.66 34.45 49.25 67.28 66.18
41.70 36.34 38.17 34.78 36.50 54.96 68.09 66.80
41.23 34.98 37.80 34.50 36.38 52.04 68.84 66.70
42.65 35.75 37.76 34.80 36.93 49.32 70.40 68.07
41.28 34.64 37.07 35.00 43.53 51.76 69.90 73.75
40.03 33.60 36.65 34.80 44.32 51.99 68.10 80.50
38.58 33.63 37.90 34.48 45.20 53.71 66.50 82.34
38.62 34.45 37.35 33.07 47.90 57.61 66.39 85.51
40.26 37.58 37.61 31.98 45.70 65.88 67.30 87.90
39.96 42.57 37.02 31.14 44.97 67.63 66.80 83.75
38.20 38.88 36.90 30.35 45.39 65.20 63.90 81.99
40.56 36.67 37.73 33.88 41.12 55.61 67.43 75.64
No. 1, ribbed, plantation rubber.
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
Natural Rubber Prices in London Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Buyers' Price RSS 1 (CI F) 2001 490.5 494.0 477.3 2002 461.8 502.5 522.1 2003 1,058.7 1,133.6 1,211.6 2004 1,446.8 1,483.2 15,401.2 2005 1,415.4 1,459.1 1,472.7 Buyers' Prices RSS 3 (CI F) 2001 464.2 467.3 450.2 2002 444.2 486.5 511.3 2003 930.6 987.3 1,046.6 2004 1,063.3 1,084.9 1,172.4 2005 957.2 992.6 1,066.7 Sellers' Prices SMR 20 (CI F) 2001 468.8 461.3 433.8 2002 428.0 461.3 510.6 2003 915.0 937.7 942.2 2004 1,030.2 1,072.0 1,104.7 2005 950.5 985.8 991.1 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
In Euro1 Per Metric Ton
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
479.9 511.9 1,147.2 1,517.6 1,470.5
498.8 518.9 1,087.4 1,552.1 1,500.7
509.5 NQ 1,141.2 1,541.0 1,626.0
493.3 NQ 1,146.1 1,501.3 1,774.7
471.3 NQ 1,184.2 1,466.1 1,815.2
443.9 NQ 1,270.0 1,463.6 1,885.2
440.2 NQ 1,452.5 1,483.7 1,937.8
430.3 NQ 1,491.0 1,472.7 1,846.4
409.1 NQ 1,437.5 1,408.8 1,807.5
469.8 503.4 1,230.1 2,644.8 1,667.6
455.6 500.2 968.7 1,219.8 1,094.0
482.5 515.4 905.6 1,206.4 1,142.5
497.3 959.9 949.7 1,204.9 1,292.6
477.3 893.4 956.9 1,123.4 1,492.2
450.7 932.2 1,021.4 1,101.9 1,405.8
423.6 981.1 1,086.1 1,051.4 1,484.3
418.3 ---1,197.3 1,045.6 1,525.3
411.4 ---1,182.0 1,026.6 1,454.3
389.4 ---1,091.5 973.2 1,528.5
449.0 691.6 1,027.0 1,106.2 1,286.3
411.9 500.6 888.2 1,118.2 1,012.1
414.5 503.5 795.4 1,094.0 1,018.7
418.8 921.3 800.0 1,042.5 1,138.6
416.3 864.6 834.4 996.8 1,292.6
422.5 898.5 911.0 1,006.9 1,254.0
400.0 978.9 1,040.7 1,008.1 1,385.5
400.0 ---1,174.7 1,037.3 1,410.0
406.3 ---1,166.0 1,000.2 1,442.3
397.5 ---1,087.6 959.5 1,485.8
421.0 674.1 957.7 1,039.2 1,197.3
Data prior to June 2002 are in British Pound per metric ton.
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
225
RUBBER Consumption of Natural Rubber in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
102.5 94.2 104.4 92.0 110.0 85.5 104.9 104.2 116.0 99.8
85.8 92.0 76.6 92.0 110.0 69.4 71.3 86.3 76.5 101.9
81.2 93.9 102.7 93.0 110.0 94.1 79.2 106.9 101.5 97.1
87.9 88.2 81.0 88.0 114.0 80.2 90.4 100.1 96.5 115.5
65.6 93.0 98.0 88.0 114.0 75.1 106.3 91.2 112.5 80.9
76.7 65.1 92.9 88.0 114.0 64.1 92.3 97.7 92.5 95.7
81.9 76.8 96.4 92.0 80.0 101.2 108.7 94.6 87.5 84.5
88.1 90.1 91.7 92.0 80.0 109.3 109.7 67.5 82.0 91.7
83.3 87.5 119.1 92.0 80.0 70.0 81.2 101.3 86.0 113.5
108.4 86.8 104.8 100.0 93.0 92.4 94.7 69.9 120.0 92.2
72.1 87.5 78.4 100.0 93.0 69.4 83.1 72.5 71.0 82.7
68.2 89.0 111.4 100.0 93.0 63.4 89.0 86.3 101.8 103.7
1,001.7 1,044.1 1,157.4 1,116.3 1,194.8 974.1 1,110.8 1,078.5 1,143.8 1,159.2
Preliminary.
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
Stocks of Natural Rubber in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
Preliminary.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
67.1 79.3 57.2 70.4 46.0 46.6 42.6 42.1 40.6 40.9
70.0 74.2 61.2 68.0 63.4 44.3 42.5 42.0 40.8 40.9
70.3 74.2 65.5 66.0 41.6 44.0 42.4 41.9 40.9 40.9
71.2 76.9 63.5 64.0 45.7 43.8 42.4 41.8 40.9 40.9
73.9 77.5 60.9 62.0 39.6 43.6 42.8 41.5 40.9 40.9
73.4 62.2 66.7 60.0 40.5 43.4 42.6 41.7 40.9 40.9
67.1 55.2 53.6 58.0 46.6 43.1 42.5 41.6 40.9 40.9
64.2 53.6 57.9 56.0 32.5 43.0 42.4 41.5 40.9 40.9
57.2 52.1 54.7 54.0 48.7 42.9 42.4 41.4 40.9 40.9
56.0 51.2 58.3 52.0 47.9 42.8 42.3 40.2 40.9 40.9
61.1 52.4 58.9 50.0 51.1 42.8 42.3 40.9 40.9 40.9
62.4 55.2 66.5 48.0 50.3 42.6 42.2 40.7 40.9 40.9
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
Stocks of Synthetic Rubber in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
366.2 400.5 377.7 409.3 406.0 433.0 392.0 390.0 343.0 260.0
355.3 400.4 382.2 404.0 416.0 451.0 377.0 325.0 347.0 255.0
342.0 408.4 375.7 404.0 413.0 467.0 379.0 330.0 335.0 240.0
354.8 412.7 379.5 406.0 402.0 4,559.0 393.0 325.0 315.0 240.0
365.4 411.9 387.5 399.0 405.0 448.0 398.0 336.0 310.0 235.0
360.0 403.5 402.8 420.0 416.0 433.0 384.0 336.0 300.0 235.0
367.0 393.1 394.6 410.0 409.0 426.0 385.0 332.0 300.0 240.0
377.3 376.9 406.8 419.0 418.0 420.0 381.0 332.0 290.0 245.0
366.0 378.4 394.2 413.0 400.0 394.0 364.0 331.0 280.0 245.0
362.8 364.4 398.7 390.0 412.0 400.0 375.0 328.0 280.0 245.0
354.1 365.2 395.7 391.0 407.0 394.0 364.0 317.0 280.0 245.0
370.6 377.7 396.5 389.0 419.0 379.0 358.0 338.0 270.0 245.0
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
Production of Synthetic Rubber in the United States Year
1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
200.0 220.0 230.0 200.0 202.0 203.0 176.1 185.6 208.3 206.9
190.0 200.0 200.0 181.0 202.0 188.6 171.9 180.9 199.0 204.8
220.0 220.0 230.0 209.0 214.0 184.3 192.3 193.6 203.5 209.4
210.0 230.0 220.0 195.0 193.0 172.1 190.6 179.8 193.5 202.7
200.0 220.0 240.0 205.0 216.0 175.5 187.0 182.9 187.1 196.9
210.0 200.0 210.0 190.0 202.0 162.3 184.6 166.3 183.5 188.9
200.0 220.0 220.0 199.0 198.0 166.7 183.5 174.2 183.5 187.3
210.0 220.0 210.0 192.0 187.0 164.7 177.3 172.9 184.1 193.7
200.0 230.0 230.0 180.0 193.0 174.3 175.1 188.4 193.5 182.7
210.0 210.0 210.0 204.0 197.0 178.6 175.0 189.7 198.5 185.8
220.0 210.0 200.0 197.0 194.0 155.1 160.4 192.0 202.1 206.9
216.0 203.0 210.0 202.0 184.0 139.2 176.4 185.6 188.5 199.8
2,486 2,589 2,610 2,354 2,382 2,064 2,150 2,192 2,325 2,366
Preliminary.
226
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
Preliminary.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
RUBBER Consumption of Synthetic Rubber in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
188.0 191.7 196.5 164.0 173.0 170.8 155.5 166.1 170.0 174.7
173.7 181.4 192.5 166.0 185.0 149.6 146.8 156.4 166.2 184.0
186.9 190.0 214.8 195.0 202.0 166.8 153.0 167.7 176.0 180.6
176.8 187.9 194.4 178.0 178.0 153.3 165.8 157.8 156.5 171.5
184.9 192.2 199.8 170.0 194.0 159.8 173.4 162.0 152.2 156.8
178.5 187.7 201.4 186.0 196.0 148.6 160.4 163.0 141.9 147.9
177.0 205.9 192.0 177.0 177.0 156.4 161.5 163.3 158.8 145.2
197.3 208.0 204.5 176.0 189.0 173.0 169.3 152.3 149.2 148.9
182.9 204.2 202.2 191.0 172.0 145.7 154.8 159.0 152.9 153.7
201.0 203.0 200.3 171.0 182.0 162.7 166.7 175.6 155.0 161.2
177.8 181.9 181.2 178.0 168.0 140.8 148.2 147.3 170.0 166.8
165.5 188.8 174.8 161.0 147.0 112.0 139.6 155.9 158.1 163.3
2,187 2,323 2,354 2,218 2,190 1,840 1,895 1,926 1,907 1,955
Preliminary.
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
U.S. Exports of Synthetic Rubber Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
61.1 63.1 61.1 57.6 64.3 74.6 67.9 73.1 82.0 86.3
57.7 58.2 60.8 63.3 73.4 67.3 71.6 70.1 87.3 89.6
64.0 57.5 62.8 65.0 83.8 76.4 69.5 80.1 97.0 91.8
68.0 74.2 59.8 70.5 70.2 78.2 74.9 85.2 90.9 98.4
48.2 66.9 66.9 64.7 73.2 75.1 78.5 78.4 96.8 98.3
66.8 61.6 61.8 66.0 72.3 69.6 73.6 75.3 92.6 96.9
62.3 64.1 60.1 61.5 72.4 70.6 74.5 74.4 88.9 91.5
57.1 70.0 64.4 68.2 78.6 71.6 72.8 72.4 91.6 100.4
63.9 65.6 63.7 65.1 78.6 68.1 70.9 73.9 94.8 76.4
65.2 65.6 62.3 79.0 75.2 70.7 73.1 83.7 89.0 87.0
58.6 63.0 59.2 70.2 73.3 62.4 70.8 74.5 87.0 101.3
58.6 58.7 59.2 65.7 70.7 59.4 66.3 79.3 81.6 87.5
731.5 768.5 742.1 796.8 886.0 844.4 864.4 920.4 1,079.5 1,105.4
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
Production of Tyres (Car and Truck) in the United States
In Thousands of Units
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
54,677 56,716 55,915 51,296 57,890 61,809 63,586 63,800 64,000
52,986 56,626 53,856 52,796 57,319 60,752 63,331 63,800 64,000
51,195 50,086 51,163 49,183 57,554 57,702 57,018 63,800 64,000
52,493 49,444 49,729 51,115 57,487 57,184 59,442 63,754 63,700
211,351 212,870 210,663 202,391 230,250 237,447 243,696 255,521 255,723
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 20052
------------65,367 62,937 62,686 60,272 57,377
------------62,809 64,362 59,311 59,774 58,832
------------62,366 60,524 58,441 58,389 54,920
------------56,106 58,241 55,565 54,824 52,074
263,860 270,905 267,652 276,765 255,700 246,064 236,003 233,259 223,203
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group I RSG)
U.S. Foreign Trade of Tyres (Car and Truck) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 20052 1
In Thousands of Units
-------------------------------------------- Imports ------------------------------------------First Second Third Fourth Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Total
Preliminary.
13,163 13,359 17,046 19,471 24,200 19,563 21,554 26,310 28,996 32,704 2
Estimate.
13,864 14,487 17,728 22,295 24,698 22,251 25,831 28,557 31,998 36,924
12,543 15,314 18,016 22,194 23,561 22,072 24,868 28,472 30,788 34,391
13,186 16,064 19,346 23,784 22,123 20,956 24,950 27,536 32,707 33,584
----------------------------------------------- Exports ---------------------------------------------First Second Third Fourth Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Total
52,756 59,434 72,124 87,768 94,019 84,842 97,203 110,875 124,489 137,603
8,244 9,466 12,840 9,874 11,200 10,087 10,438 9,293 10,272 9,808
10,013 11,386 10,678 9,580 10,200 10,362 10,379 2,648 10,902 10,071
8,672 10,456 10,018 10,480 10,200 11,004 10,167 10,263 10,108 10,659
9,401 11,085 10,372 10,537 10,100 10,691 10,380 10,794 10,299 10,570
36,330 42,452 43,923 40,945 44,164 42,144 41,363 32,998 41,581 41,108
Source: I nternational Rubber Study Group (I RSG)
227
Rye Rye is a cereal grain and a member of the grass family. Hardy varieties of rye have been developed for winter planting. Rye is most widely grown in northern Europe and Asia. In the US, rye is used as an animal feed and as an ingredient in bread and some whiskeys. Bread using rye was developed in northern Europe in the Middle Ages where bakers developed dark, hearty bread consisting of rye, oat and barley flours. Those were crops that grew more readily in the wet and damp climate of northern Europe, as opposed to wheat which fares better in the warmer and drier climates in central Europe. Modern rye bread is made with a mixture of white and rye flours. Coarsely ground rye flour is also used in pumpernickel bread and helps provide the dark color and course texture, along with molasses. The major producing states are North and South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Georgia. The crop year runs from June to May.
US production of rye fell off in the 1970s, and fell to a record low of 6.971 million bushels in 2001-02. US acreage harvested with rye in 2005-06 fell –7.0% to 279,000 acres, which was only modestly above the record low of 255,000 acres in 2001-02. US farmers in the late 1800s through the 1960s typically harvested more than 1 million acres of rye, showing how domestic planting of rye has dropped off sharply in the past several decades. Rye yield in 2005-06 fell -1.8% to 27.0 bushels per acre, which was well below the record high of 33.1 bushels per acre posted in 1984-85. Modern rye production yields are more than double the levels in the teens seen prior to the 1960s when yields started to rise. Demand – Total US domestic usage of rye in 2004-05 fell -6.0% yr/yr to 11.515 million bushels. The breakdown of domestic usage shows that 29% of rye in 2004-05 was used for food, 26% by industry, 26% as seed, and 19% as feed and residual.
Supply – World rye production in 2004-05 (latest data available) rose sharply by +24.0% yr/yr to 17.415 million metric tons, recovering from the record low of 14.041 million metric tons seen in 2003-04. The world’s largest producers of rye are the European Union with 58% of world production in 2004-05, followed by Russia with 19%, Belarus with 9%, and the Ukraine with 8%. US production of rye accounted for only 1.3% of world production in 2004-05.
Trade – World exports of rye in the 2004-05 marketing year fell –9.6% yr/yr to a 7-year low of 928,000 metric tons. US imports of rye in 2004-05 fell –9.5% yr/yr to 76.0 million metric tons, which was a 15-year low. US exports of rye in 2004-05 were negligible but rose +50.0% yr/yr to 300,000 bushels.
US production of rye in 2005 fell -8.7% to 7.537 million bushels. That was far below the production levels above 20 million bushels seen from the late 1800s through the 1960s.
World Production of Rye Year
Argentina
Australia
Belarus
Canada
Union
Kazakhstan
Romania
Russia
Switzer land
Turkey
Ukraine
United States
World Total
36 62 66 116 125 81 80 37 89 55
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
1,794 1,788 1,384 929 1,360 1,294 1,600 1,200 1,400 1,300
309 320 408 387 260 228 134 327 420 360
5,680 6,021 6,345 11,413 10,203 11,891 9,190 6,907 9,967 7,674
29 60 20 20 50 75 50 50 50 50
48 50 45 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
5,900 7,500 3,300 4,800 5,450 6,600 7,150 4,200 2,850 3,600
46 46 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
245 235 232 233 260 220 255 240 240 240
1,100 1,348 1,140 919 966 1,822 1,511 625 1,600 1,200
227 207 309 280 213 175 165 219 210 191
22,041 24,125 20,074 19,278 19,064 22,568 20,310 13,976 17,000 14,844
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Imports and Exports of Rye
In Thousands of Metric Tons
--------------------------------------------------- Imports -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Exports -----------------------------------------European Rep. of United World European United World Crop Year Union Ja p a n Korea Turkey Russia States Total Belarus Canada Union Russia States Total
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
228
2 4 368 486 433 501 42 25 10 2
267 323 391 397 337 335 414 341 300 150
Estimate.
3
242 4 175 476 57 121 31 114 50 25 Forecast.
---------183 ---20 43 16 61 20
185 2 306 464 193 7 ---6 172 50
110 141 84 87 82 126 156 83 143 114
1,262 676 1,470 2,276 1,224 1,150 1,433 827 954 439
8 ---------50 30 110 60 50 50
158 142 68 87 91 66 53 171 122 150
1,046 487 939 2,085 1,288 730 748 626 575 250
21 1 ---------4 291 156 ---5
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
1 2 1 7 10 5 3 1 4 3
1,388 651 1,443 2,387 1,440 1,129 1,493 1,025 855 533
RYE
-----
Cents Per Bushel No. 2 Minneapolis (July 1909 to Dec. 1997)
Production of Rye in the United States Year
Georgia
Kansas
1,820 1,430 1,050 1,050 1,170 875 560 800 600 810
150 300 375 300
351 450 420 756
480 400 837 775
323 240 288 405
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
In Thousands of Bushels
Preliminary.
2
Michigan Minnesota Nebraska
Estimates not published beginning in 2000.
975 1,080 1,540 1,045 1,470 1,150 1,300 1,540 1,620 1,400
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
216 400 495 600
520 250 400 500
190 330 400 450
384 432 360 384
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1,476 728 1,400 1,012 546 350 270 672 649
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Texas Wisconsin
Total
8,936 8,132 12,161 11,038 8,386 6,971 6,488 8,634 8,255 7,537
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
In Thousands of Bushels
-------------------------------------- Disappearance -------------------------------------- ------- Acreage ------------------------------ Supply ----------------------- ----------------------- Domestic Use ------------------------
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
528 513 2,562 1,517 704 340 210 750 780 2
Salient Statistics of Rye in the United States Crop Year Beginning June 1
North Dakota Oklahoma
Preliminary.
Stocks June 1
Production
898 754 764 2,449 1,589 1,190 568 445 594
8,936 8,132 12,161 11,038 8,386 6,971 6,488 8,634 8,255 7,537
2
Estimate.
3
Imports
Total Supply
F ood
Industry
4,327 5,562 3,322 3,424 3,230 4,945 6,140 3,300 3,000
14,161 14,448 16,247 16,911 13,205 13,106 13,196 12,379 11,849
3,459 3,298 3,639 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300
2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Forecast
F eed & Seed Residual
3,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
4,916 5,306 4,392 5,736 2,307 2,970 3,329 2,425 2,215
Total
13,375 13,604 14,031 15,036 11,607 12,270 12,629 11,725 11,515
Yield Per Harvested Harvested Total Disap- Planted for Grain Acre Exports pearance ----- 1,000 Acres ----Bushels
32 80 33 286 390 193 122 60 100
13,407 13,684 14,064 15,322 11,997 12,463 12,751 11,784 11,615
1,457 1,400 1,566 1,582 1,329 1,328 1,355 1,348 1,380 1,433
345 316 418 383 296 255 263 319 300 279
25.9 25.7 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.3 24.8 27.1 27.5 27.0
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
229
Salt Supply – World production of salt in 2004, the last full reporting year, rose +4.5% yr/yr to 208.0 million metric tons. The world’s largest salt producers are the US with 22% of world production in 2004. US salt production in 2004 rose +6.4% yr/yr to 46.500 million metric tons.
Salt, also known as sodium chloride, is a chemical compound that is an essential element in the diet of humans, animals, and even many plants. Since prehistoric times, salt has been used to preserve foods and was commonly used in the religious rites of the Greeks, Romans, Hebrews, and Christians. Salt, in the form of salt cakes, served as money in ancient Ethiopia and Tibet. As long ago as 1450 BC, Egyptian art shows records of salt production.
Demand – US consumption of salt in 2004 rose +4.9% to a new record high of 55.800 million metric tons, recovering from the 10-year low of 45.100 million metric tons seen in 2002.
The simplest method of obtaining salt is through the evaporation of salt water from areas near oceans or seas. In most regions, rock salt is obtained from underground mining or by wells sunk into deposits. Salt is soluble in water, is slightly soluble in alcohol, but is insoluble in concentrated hydrochloric acid. In its crystalline form, salt is transparent and colorless, shining with an ice-like luster.
Trade – The US relied on imports for 21% of its salt consumption in 2004, up from 20% in 2003. US imports of salt for consumption in 2004 fell –7.8% yr/yr to 11.900 million metric tons, moving down from 2003’s record high of 12.9 million metric tons. US exports of salt in 2004 rose sharply by +54.6% to 1.110 million metric tons, with the bulk of those exports (971,000 metric tons) going to Canada.
Prices – Salt prices in 2004 (vacuum and open pan, FOB mine) rose +3.3% yr/yr to $128.39 per ton, which was a new record high.
World Production of All Salt Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Italy
Mexico
Poland
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
8,883 9,033 9,888 8,778 9,536 9,887 9,800 11,221
13,264 13,296 12,686 12,164 13,725 12,736 13,952 14,125
30,830 22,420 28,124 31,280 34,105 36,024 32,424 37,101
7,085 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000
15,787 15,700 15,700 937 851 873 743 746
14,251 11,964 14,453 14,453 14,503 14,503 15,003 15,003
3,510 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600
7,933 8,412 8,236 8,884 8,501 7,802 7,547 8,180
3,859 4,005 1,623 1,576 1,484 1,566 1,604 1,600
4,000 3,500 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200
6,600 6,600 5,800 5,800 5,800 5,800 5,800 5,800
41,500 41,300 45,000 45,600 44,800 40,300 43,700 46,500
221,000 200,000 207,000 195,000 199,000 195,000 199,000 208,000
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of the Salt Industry in the United States
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Consumption
17 17 16 15 17 18 23 20
Preliminary.
119.61 114.93 112.49 113.95 120.02 120.02 124.24 128.39 2
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Average Value ---------------------- Production ----------------------- ----- Sold or Used Producers -----FOB Mine Imports ---- Exports ---- Apparent Open & Vacuum & Open & Rock Total Value3 for ConConVacuum Open Pan Vacuum To Total Rock Brine Salt Brine Salt Million $ sumption P an $ Per Ton Pan Solar Total Canada sumption
Estimate.
41,400 41,200 44,900 45,600 44,800 40,300 43,700 46,500 3
3,980 4,040 4,190 4,200 4,120 4,100 4,070 4,100
3,170 3,190 3,580 3,810 3,310 3,390 3,330 3,520
12,900 12,900 14,400 15,000 17,000 13,500 16,300 18,300
21,400 21,100 22,700 22,500 20,400 19,300 20,000 20,500
3,990 4,040 4,190 4,190 4,090 4,070 4,010 4,040
12,200 12,700 14,700 13,600 14,600 11,400 14,100 17,400
21,400 21,100 22,700 22,500 20,400 19,300 20,000 20,500
40,600 40,800 44,400 43,300 42,200 37,700 41,100 45,000
993.0 9,160 748 986.0 8,770 731 1,110.0 8,870 892 1,040.0 8,960 642 1,110.0 12,900 1,120 1,010.0 8,160 689 1,130.0 12,900 718 1,270.0 11,900 1,110
Values are f.o.b. mine or refinery & do not include cost of cooperage or containers.
624 533 730 500 984 585 585 971
49,000 48,800 52,400 51,600 54,000 45,100 53,200 55,800
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Salt Sold or Used by Producers in the U.S. by Classes & Consumers or Uses In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
AgriF eed cultural DistriFeed ManuMeat Chem- Tanning Textile & ical2 Leather Dyeing Packers Canning Baking bution Dealers facturers Rubber
22,400 22,000 22,400 22,400 20,100 19,500 20,100 20,300
Preliminary.
230
2
78 93 103 82 87 79 71 61
273 250 235 209 172 154 151 150
416 440 405 402 411 395 374 387
334 275 225 220 213 230 231 225
167 219 234 234 242 215 210 210
Chloralkali producers and other chemical.
307 362 254 262 280 245 215 234
1,110 1,190 1,210 1,240 1,170 1,040 1,090 1,090
683 536 533 540 533 507 460 455
68 68 72 71 61 61 67 69
Metal ProP aper Oil & Pulp cessing
2,440 2,320 2,430 2,510 2,260 2,010 2,210 2,340
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
107 115 112 106 100 93 88 89
177 170 153 112 124 118 126 108
Water Ice CondiWater Treat- Grocery tioning ment Stores Distrib.
471 531 899 589 512 662 777 856
800 807 831 823 824 781 802 808
624 598 600 568 560 525 537 514
Control and/or Stabilization
15,000 9,490 15,300 19,700 16,800 13,300 18,500 18,900
Sheep & Lambs Sheep and lambs are raised for both their wool and meat. In countries that have high wool production, there is also demand for sheep and lamb meat due to the easy availability. Production levels have declined in New Zealand and Australia, but that has been counteracted by a substantial increase in China. Prices – The average monthly price received by farmers for lambs in the US in 2005 (through November) rose by +9.9% to 111.55 cents per pound, recovering further from the 10-year low of 67.61 cents seen in 2001. The average monthly price received by US farmers for sheep in 2005 (through November) rose by +1.2% to 45.25 cents per pound, recovering further from the 12-year low of 29.03 cents in 2002. The average monthly wholesale price of slaughter
lambs (choice) at San Angelo, Texas in 2004 (through July) rose by 4.9% to a new record high of 101.41 cents per pound. Supply – World sheep and goat numbers in 2002 fell by –0.1% to 1.770 billion, down farther from the record high of 1.777 billion in 2001. The world’s largest producers of sheep and goats are China with 16% of world production in 2002, India (10%), Australia (7%), and New Zealand (3%). The number of sheep and lambs on US farms in 2005 (Jan 1) rose +0.5% to 6.135 million head, up slightly from last year’s record low of 6.105 million head. The US states with the most sheep and lambs were Texas (with 17% of the US total), California (11%), Wyoming (7%), South Dakota (6%), and Colorado (6%).
World Sheep and Goat Numbers in Specified Countries on January 1 Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
Argentina
Australia
China
India
Kazakhstan
24,500 23,500 21,626 17,956 17,295 15,232 13,953 17,550 16,887 17,052
140,542 120,900 121,100 121,200 120,228 117,494 117,091 113,310 116,495 118,812
207,329 217,314 240,528 279,535 236,961 255,055 268,143 298,464 290,521 279,495
162,155 169,569 171,626 173,519 175,976 178,462 180,130 182,800 181,700 180,900
34,420 34,208 25,132 19,600 13,742 10,896 9,556 10,479 9,981 9,656
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
New Zealand
Romania
52,568 50,298 50,135 48,816 47,394 46,970 46,150 43,325 45,568 45,568
12,079 12,276 12,119 11,086 10,317 9,747 9,167 7,776 8,195 8,679
In Thousands of Head
Russia
South Africa
Spain
Turkey
51,368 43,700 34,500 28,336 23,519 20,697 18,213 15,327 14,772 14,751
35,770 33,800 33,385 35,145 35,830 36,821 34,910 35,939 35,350 35,257
24,615 23,872 23,058 21,322 23,981 24,857 24,199 27,415 27,230 26,592
44,600 44,000 43,000 42,400 41,100 39,500 37,300 33,994 35,693 38,030
With Without New Crop New Crop Lambs Lambs
8,024 7,825 7,215 7,032 6,965 6,685 6,300 6,105 6,135
8,024 7,825 7,215 7,032 6,965 6,685 6,321 6,105 6,135
---------- Slaughter ---------Lamb Crop
5,356 5,013 4,733 4,622 4,495 4,357 4,140 4,096 4,125
3 Total --- Marketings --Supply Sheep Lambs
13,380 12,838 11,948 11,654 11,460 11,042 10,461 10,201 10,260
1,011 977 790 788 711 855 828 695
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Excludes interfarm sales. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
4
5,709 5,510 5,208 4,827 4,795 4,794 4,387 4,201
Farm
62 57 65 67 68 66 67 65
Commercial
3,907 3,804 3,701 3,460 3,222 3,286 2,979 2,839 2,700
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 20062
California
Colorado
Idaho
800 810 800 840 800 730 680 670 650
575 440 440 420 370 380 360 365 390
285 265 275 275 260 260 260 270 260
Iowa Minnesota
265 260 265 270 250 255 250 245 235
Total4
3,969 3,861 3,766 3,527 3,290 3,352 3,046 2,904
I ncludes all commercial and farm.
Sheep and Lambs3 on Farms in the United States on January 1 Year
165 175 165 170 160 145 140 145 155
Total Net D i sa p Exports pearance
1,361 618 393 329 299 266 105
6,162 5,260 4,922 4,554 4,303 4,380 3,804
ProFarm Value duction --------- Jan. 1 --------(Live Weight) All $ P er Mil. Lbs. Million $ Head
591.3 555.7 533.6 508.9 495.6 485.1 470.1 464.5
761.7 797.8 637.6 668.8 694.5 618.1 656.6 723.8 799.3
96.0 102.0 88.0 95.0 100.0 94.0 104.0 119.0 130.0
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Thousands of Head
Montana
New Mexico
Ohio
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
Total
415 380 370 360 335 310 300 305 295
290 275 290 255 230 175 160 145 155
135 125 134 142 140 150 140 142 141
420 420 420 420 400 380 370 375 385
1,530 1,350 1,200 1,150 1,130 1,040 1,100 1,070 1,090
420 400 400 390 365 310 265 270 280
710 630 570 530 480 460 430 450 450
7,825 7,215 7,032 6,965 6,685 6,300 6,105 6,135 6,230
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes sheep & lambs on feed for market and stock sheep & lambs. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
29,493 900,400 29,333 881,258 29,484 874,912 28,797 897,009 28,256 842,179 30,027 853,061 31,080 897,310 35,832 1,777,382 36,697 1,772,173 42,261 1,769,851
In Thousands of Head
-- Inventory, Jan. 1 --
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
World Total
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Sheep & Lambs in the United States (Average Live Weight)
Year
United Kingdom
Source: Economic Research Service,
231
SHEEP & LAMBS Average Wholesale Price of Slaughter Lambs (Choice) at San Angelo Texas Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
94.63 74.38 69.31 73.71 81.25 65.85 89.25 99.44 107.25
100.81 74.31 67.88 76.83 87.00 70.00 90.25 99.94 109.69
97.50 71.50 68.54 78.17 82.63 64.00 96.25 102.50 101.37
95.50 63.00 70.50 78.25 83.30 65.15 88.13 92.31 99.37
83.17 73.00 82.70 89.65 86.07 64.06 95.75 97.50 96.94
83.25 91.21 81.06 78.30 75.21 68.75 97.25 101.37 99.50
78.94 82.21 77.29 84.17 69.82 75.83 87.88 97.50 95.00
90.25 82.05 81.17 82.20 54.47 74.35 85.81 91.12 92.14
85.45 69.50 77.00 82.00 56.50 73.69 91.44 92.25 91.56
82.75 67.20 74.81 77.50 57.67 76.20 91.31 91.75 93.00
80.33 63.33 78.00 76.70 59.00 83.00 91.00 95.58 93.33
83.52 71.44 83.29 75.33 71.60 86.88 96.17 99.12 94.00
88.01 73.59 75.96 79.40 72.04 72.31 91.71 96.70 97.76
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Federally Inspected Slaughter of Sheep & Lambs in the United States
In Thousands of Head
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
294 301 260 271 258 244 227 207 195
317 300 291 284 236 244 211 199 204
386 377 411 334 316 311 252 295 268
321 367 295 330 275 263 280 238 208
308 270 260 248 227 267 209 175 198
293 283 259 247 221 216 216 220 210
295 269 253 229 229 241 225 207 188
288 263 283 269 258 246 226 219 216
310 295 294 257 230 259 241 231 219
324 312 293 266 274 284 251 228 217
299 290 317 286 273 255 223 228 213
337 344 341 287 266 262 246 229 219
3,771 3,671 3,557 3,308 3,065 3,092 2,805 2,676 2,555
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of Lamb and Mutton in the U.S., on First of Month Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
8,899 13,741 11,721 8,740 13,455 11,905 7,124 3,795 3,497
9,473 13,920 10,452 10,394 13,833 13,110 6,232 3,671 7,549
9,862 15,284 12,134 10,335 13,141 11,269 4,063 3,355 7,585
11,163 16,226 12,374 11,437 13,729 10,528 3,900 3,164 7,650
13,027 16,306 13,146 13,345 13,551 13,172 5,016 3,251 8,739
15,220 16,666 12,313 13,137 14,586 12,938 5,838 3,504 9,719
16,594 16,040 12,459 13,984 15,443 13,553 5,427 3,872 9,362
18,535 16,188 11,975 13,557 15,744 14,215 5,929 3,376 11,756
19,383 14,530 12,240 14,042 15,266 14,458 5,855 3,878 11,790
16,119 12,253 9,815 12,867 13,979 11,961 6,210 4,179 10,942
16,894 12,558 9,210 12,195 13,238 12,004 4,485 4,166 10,137
16,534 11,914 9,446 12,486 11,336 9,255 4,883 3,715 9,332
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Sheep in the United States Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
41.80 42.00 32.40 36.80 43.30 36.20 41.30 43.80 53.50
41.30 39.60 30.20 39.50 47.50 34.30 44.00 40.80 52.40
42.50 41.00 32.70 38.80 46.60 31.80 40.90 36.70 48.20
37.50 34.40 31.80 35.00 36.90 26.00 31.10 36.70 44.40
34.00 30.30 31.50 30.50 36.30 25.30 31.30 36.00 44.50
36.60 30.20 28.90 30.00 31.70 23.50 29.40 31.30 40.90
39.40 29.40 32.00 34.20 34.10 25.60 28.60 37.10 40.30
38.40 28.30 29.80 30.70 32.20 25.60 29.20 37.30 42.30
33.90 26.80 29.20 30.30 29.90 24.50 32.50 41.20 43.30
35.80 26.10 26.40 29.50 27.20 25.60 35.00 40.40 43.70
38.90 26.40 30.20 33.60 27.10 31.30 40.50 41.40 45.40
37.70 30.10 33.40 36.20 34.00 38.70 45.10 44.60 46.90
38.15 32.05 30.71 33.76 35.57 29.03 35.74 38.94 45.48
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Lambs in the United States
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
94.60 78.40 68.20 70.90 74.10 65.50 92.00 104.00 114.00
99.80 75.00 67.20 72.00 80.10 67.80 92.40 106.00 114.00
99.70 70.10 67.40 80.20 84.00 66.70 97.10 103.00 114.00
96.40 66.00 67.40 82.60 84.30 64.70 93.70 100.00 114.00
90.80 63.00 82.80 96.40 80.00 64.40 97.60 103.00 115.00
86.50 88.90 81.30 89.70 71.60 72.90 89.30 105.00 114.00
81.10 81.30 77.00 87.00 64.30 75.60 89.40 101.00 109.00
92.70 80.10 80.30 83.60 54.80 75.30 88.60 97.90 108.00
90.20 71.80 75.30 80.80 52.50 76.30 95.10 100.00 110.00
87.20 67.60 72.60 76.80 51.40 79.60 96.80 97.70 108.00
83.10 62.60 76.30 71.50 52.80 84.00 99.70 99.90 107.00
83.90 64.70 77.60 71.80 61.40 87.20 97.70 101.00 102.00
90.50 72.46 74.45 80.28 67.61 73.33 94.12 101.54 110.75
Preliminary.
232
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Silk Silk is a fine, tough, elastic fiber produced by caterpillars, commonly called silkworms. Silk is one of the oldest known textile fibers. Chinese tradition credits Lady HsiLing-Shih, wife of the Emperor Huang Ti, with the discovery of the silkworm and the invention of the first silk reel. Dating to around 3000 BC, a group of ribbons, threads, and woven fragments was found in China. Also found, along the lower Yangzi River, were 7,000 year-old spinning tools, silk thread, and fabric fragments. Silk filament was first woven into cloth in Ancient China. The Chinese successfully guarded this secret until 300AD, when Japan, and later India, learned the secret. In 550 AD, two Nestorian monks were sent to China to steal mulberry seeds and silkworm eggs, which they hid in their walking staffs, and then brought them back to Rome. By the 17th century, France was the silk center of the West. Unfortunately, the silkworm did not flourish in the English climate, nor has it ever flourished in the US. Sericulture is the term for the raising of silkworms. The blind, flightless moth, Bombyx mori, lays more than 500 tiny eggs. After hatching, the tiny worms eat chopped mulberry leaves continuously until they are ready to spin their cocoons. After gathering the complete cocoons, the first step in silk manufacturing is to kill the insects inside the cocoons with heat. The cocoons are then placed in boiling water to loosen the gummy substance, sericin, holding
World Production of Raw Silk Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
Supply – World production of silk in 2002, the latest reporting year, rose +0.8% to 132,000 metric tons, which was a record high and was sharply above the 12-year low of 85,000 posted in 1997. China is the world’s largest producer of silk by far with 71% of world production in 2002. Other key producers include India with 11% of world production, Vietnam (9%), and Turkmenistan (3%). Trade – The world’s largest exporters of silk are China with 62% of world exports in 2003, Japan with 2.4%, and Brazil with 1.5%. The world’s largest importers of silk in 2003 were India (with 33% of world imports), Italy (13%), Japan (10%), and South Korea (6%).
Brazil
China
India
Iran
Ja p a n
North Korea
South Korea
Kyrgyzstan
Thailand
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
V i et Nam
World Total
2,450 2,450 2,450 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000
76,801 84,001 80,001 51,000 51,000 68,000 70,000 78,000 94,000 94,000
14,168 14,500 15,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
480 600 600 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
4,254 2,400 2,400 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
4,600 4,700 4,700 5,000 4,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 -------
683 700 700 ----------------------
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 ----
1,500 1,600 1,600 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000
500 500 500 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 4,000
2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
550 600 650 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 10,000 12,000
109,790 115,796 112,350 88,000 85,000 102,000 98,000 107,000 131,000 132,000
2
Estimate.
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
In Metric Tons
-------------------------------------------------- Imports -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Exports -----------------------------------------Hong South World Hong North World France Kong India Italy Ja p a n Korea Total Brazil China Kong Ja p a n Korea Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Raw silk is traded on the Kansai Agricultural Commodities Exchange (KANEX) in Japan. Dried cocoons are traded on the Chuba Commodity Exchange (CCE). Raw silk and dried cocoons are traded on the Yokohama Commodity Exchange.
In Metric Tons
World Trade of Silk by Selected Countries Year
the filament together. The filament is unwound, and then rewound in a process called reeling. Each cocoon’s silk filament is between 600 and 900 meters long. Four different types of silk thread may be produced: organzine, crepe, tram, and thrown singles. During the last 30 years, in spite of the use of man-made fibers, world silk production has doubled.
Preliminary.
1,047 663 675 582 592 579 481 452 706 312
6,165 4,775 3,978 4,320 2,030 1,258 866 256 51 88
5,750 4,276 2,980 2,437 2,846 5,120 4,732 6,929 9,266 9,539
9,235 5,612 4,400 5,482 4,088 4,985 5,906 4,506 3,498 3,687
5,772 4,331 6,098 4,229 3,357 3,792 4,020 2,823 2,853 2,852
4,128 3,513 3,737 2,796 1,510 2,265 1,843 1,628 2,108 1,704
44,136 37,854 37,615 45,817 31,908 35,352 32,279 26,876 26,877 28,810
1,739 966 1,071 905 780 408 370 232 331 416
21,004 16,788 15,791 14,384 12,250 16,251 17,520 14,485 17,842 17,264
6,149 5,176 4,165 4,501 2,105 1,153 936 259 128 43
1,265 925 946 936 612 227 239 124 116 684
1,400 1,000 1,000 1,000 180 130 120 90 170 296
41,998 40,633 38,587 37,233 29,611 35,041 35,033 26,329 30,767 27,935
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
233
Silver Silver is a white, lustrous metallic element that conducts heat and electricity better than any other metal. In ancient times, many silver deposits were on or near the earth’s surface. Before 2,500 BC, silver mines were worked in Asia Minor. Around 700 BC, ancient Greeks stamped a turtle on their first silver coins. Silver assumed a key role in the US monetary system in 1792 when Congress based the currency on the silver dollar. However, the US discontinued the use of silver in coinage in 1965. Today Mexico is the only country that uses silver in its circulating coinage. Silver is the most malleable and ductile of all metals, with the exception of gold. Silver melts at about 962 degrees Celsius and boils at about 2212 degrees Celsius. Silver is not very chemically active, although tarnishing occurs when sulfur and sulfides attack silver, forming silver sulfide on the surface of the metal. Because silver is too soft in its pure form, a hardening agent, usually copper, is mixed into the silver. Copper is usually used as the hardening agent because it does not discolor the silver. The term “sterling silver” refers to silver that contains at least 925 parts of silver per thousand (92.5%) to 75 parts of copper (7.5%). Silver is usually found combined with other elements in minerals and ores. In the US, silver is mined in conjunction with lead, copper, and zinc. In the US, Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, and Arizona are the leading silver-producing states. For industrial purposes, silver is used for photography, electrical appliances, glass, and as an antibacterial agent for the health industry. Silver futures and options are traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and the London Metal Exchange (LME). Silver futures are traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). The Nymex silver futures contract calls for the delivery of 5,000 troy ounces of silver (0.999 fineness) and is priced in terms of dollars and cents per troy ounce. Prices – Nymex silver futures prices rallied sharply during 2005 and posted a new 18-year high on the nearestfutures chart. Silver futures closed 2005 at $8.89 per ounce, up 30% from 2004. The highest month-end price ever reached for cash silver was $38 per troy ounce back in January 1980. In the past 4 years, silver futures prices have
World Mine Production of Silver Year
Demand – US consumption of silver in 2003, the latest reporting year, fell –1.0% yr/yr to 175.3 million troy ounces. The largest source of silver usage by far comes from photographic materials with 35.1% of total usage, followed by electrical contacts and conductors (22.5%), jewelry (8.6%), coinage (7.1%), and brazing alloys and solders (4.5%). The world’s largest consuming nation of silver for industrial purposes is the US with 19.7% of world consumption in 2003, followed India (14.9%), Japan (14.1%), and Italy (6.7%). Trade – US exports of refined silver in 2004 rose +81% yr/yr to 12.346 million troy ounces, which was far below the record high of 99.022 million troy ounces seen in 1997. The main destinations for US silver exports are Canada (7.009 million troy ounces), Switzerland (2.321 million troy ounces), and Japan (585,000 troy ounces). US imports of silver ore and concentrates fell –13% yr/yr to 71,000 troy ounces in 2004. US imports of refined silver bullion fell –11.3% yr/yr to 120.884 million troy ounces in 2004. The bulk of those imports came from Mexico (59.156 million troy ounces), Canada (37.616 million troy ounces), and Peru (17.297 million troy ounces).
In Thousands of Kilograms In Metric Tons
Bolivia
Canada3
Chile
China
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Peru
Poland
Russia
Sweden
United States
World Total2
939 1,013 1,106 1,474 1,720 2,060 2,100 2,077 1,872 2,237
425 384 387 404 422 434 411 83 85 85
1,285 1,309 1,224 1,196 1,174 1,212 1,320 1,408 1,310 1,336
1,041 1,047 1,091 1,340 1,381 1,242 1,349 1,210 1,313 1,360
910 1,140 1,300 1,300 1,320 1,600 1,910 2,200 2,400 2,450
489 468 690 726 905 927 982 893 827 733
2,324 2,528 2,679 2,686 2,467 2,620 2,760 2,747 2,569 2,700
1,929 1,970 2,090 2,025 2,231 2,438 2,571 2,870 2,921 3,060
1,001 935 1,038 1,108 1,100 1,148 1,194 1,229 1,237 1,250
600 400 400 350 375 370 380 400 700 1,277
268 272 304 299 284 329 306 293 307 293
1,560 1,570 2,180 2,060 1,950 1,980 1,740 1,350 1,240 1,250
14,900 15,100 16,500 17,200 17,100 18,100 18,900 18,500 18,400 19,700
Preliminary.
234
Supply – World mine production of silver in 2004, the latest reporting year for the series, rose +7.1% yr/yr to a new record high of 19,700 metric tons, finally showing some improvement after flat production figures in 2000-03. The world’s largest silver producers are Peru with 16% of world production in 2004, Mexico (14%), China (12%), Australia (11%), and the US (6%). US production of refined silver in 2005 (through August, annualized) rose by +35.3% to 6,010 metric tons, recovering from the 8-year low of 4,442 metric tons seen in 2004.
Australia
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
more than doubled in price. The rally in silver in 2002-04 was fueled mostly by the weak dollar. But in 2005, silver rallied in sympathy with other metal prices on strong demand and lagging supply. Demand for silver was very strong for investment, jewelry and industrial purposes. Investment demand stemmed from inflation concerns and new money pouring into commodity index funds. Industrial metal demand was particularly strong in China with its blistering GDP growth rate of +9.5%. At the same time, supply has not been keeping pace with demand, causing production deficits and soaring prices.
2
Estimate.
3
Shipments.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
SILVER
-----
Cents Per Troy Ounce Bullion, London (1833 - 1909) Handy & Harman, New York (Jan. 1910 - May 1990) Composite (June 1990 to date)
Average Price of Silver in New York (Handy & Harman) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Troy Ounce (.999 Fine)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
547.03 483.70 584.58 511.61 523.47 470.19 450.17 485.62 637.13 665.45
562.75 508.76 672.61 554.55 529.65 457.34 444.79 468.11 647.71 709.18
551.38 519.88 617.18 519.85 510.15 439.93 457.00 454.74 729.48 728.50
540.14 476.41 628.86 509.21 510.37 439.25 460.50 453.40 708.57 715.74
536.02 475.80 558.65 529.83 504.30 443.59 473.55 475.29 589.19 705.29
513.58 474.60 526.05 507.73 505.20 436.79 492.13 455.62 588.38 733.64
502.95 435.96 546.82 522.81 501.82 425.45 494.57 486.48 637.55 704.40
510.50 451.36 516.45 529.36 492.76 420.72 456.16 502.90 670.98 702.72
501.57 472.69 502.67 527.86 494.50 441.09 458.93 520.62 641.93 719.33
492.76 501.15 500.18 541.67 488.14 441.87 442.28 503.91 717.55 769.90
481.69 507.30 498.39 519.20 471.93 412.35 453.87 520.64 751.43 786.35
480.14 571.53 476.85 521.95 466.40 437.98 465.78 565.33 712.43 865.88
518.34 489.07 552.68 524.75 499.89 438.88 462.39 491.06 669.36 733.87
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Average Price of Silver in London (Spot Fix) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Pence Per Troy Ounce (.999 Fine)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
359.20 287.63 359.62 312.69 316.08 315.87 315.08 297.21 347.36 354.28
367.64 311.95 416.55 340.46 327.90 312.57 310.55 289.23 339.49 375.57
362.03 323.99 375.76 320.27 320.87 304.50 318.27 287.39 395.67 382.74
392.85 293.08 378.77 315.12 319.61 304.36 316.61 285.06 391.14 377.48
354.25 291.43 339.42 326.80 330.53 310.19 322.58 292.05 327.03 380.46
334.68 289.16 319.05 315.51 331.24 309.54 329.32 272.79 320.36 403.56
325.81 272.73 331.87 328.86 329.35 300.97 316.07 295.53 342.32 402.10
330.93 280.36 317.74 327.98 327.80 277.97 295.93 313.01 368.78 391.55
322.98 295.67 297.40 322.20 340.75 297.93 292.38 320.30 356.35 397.90
310.78 308.69 295.41 326.42 332.24 289.21 282.49 298.01 392.94 436.23
290.51 300.76 298.72 317.53 327.71 286.92 286.93 306.53 402.52 453.10
289.77 348.90 291.77 319.87 317.47 306.25 291.52 320.48 368.43 496.09
336.79 300.36 335.17 322.75 326.94 302.43 306.48 298.13 362.70 404.26
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
235
SILVER
Average Open Interest of Silver Futures in New York (COMEX) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
99,316 91,385 95,717 77,946 76,187 69,408 67,442 98,561 109,860 97,744
107,667 94,539 108,284 97,593 81,398 72,798 65,355 94,472 113,764 98,644
92,186 90,531 91,730 82,435 75,765 74,337 67,405 84,485 117,848 101,200
101,011 97,434 83,045 82,824 76,213 71,589 76,158 87,445 113,172 103,562
99,529 87,510 79,451 78,745 75,001 67,328 82,525 85,232 90,493 104,680
110,247 90,145 91,563 78,943 76,466 67,429 100,837 80,001 87,201 124,317
105,627 96,777 78,353 78,151 75,199 75,019 94,731 91,544 89,062 124,521
103,618 89,250 82,530 86,601 91,083 75,830 82,349 108,118 97,844 121,133
93,448 79,344 74,848 77,490 73,441 65,533 80,511 110,423 85,245 117,121
95,809 100,464 74,451 86,577 78,222 66,530 89,094 92,216 108,762 135,335
93,238 96,695 76,440 80,564 83,142 74,228 85,434 101,303 121,221 146,409
83,879 93,761 78,716 70,275 73,644 66,903 78,174 103,007 107,136 136,502
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX Division
Volume of Trading of Silver Futures in New York (COMEX) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
415,801 401,995 352,688 315,165 258,053 175,026 265,773 291,120 385,058 285,449
583,767 530,514 550,800 550,271 425,910 302,035 271,293 409,737 544,939 513,617
368,175 360,871 368,127 355,559 231,336 155,658 163,898 216,660 408,447 370,338
547,629 493,999 360,130 424,822 318,752 252,486 325,889 315,240 671,204 485,832
334,973 280,536 310,130 274,002 216,938 204,552 243,475 251,096 278,703 392,156
549,631 472,306 393,971 373,662 407,455 281,846 389,798 352,729 425,501 621,647
296,905 340,245 278,774 288,480 175,235 112,956 281,214 407,931 316,264 334,903
460,686 425,471 367,257 422,653 370,739 267,711 296,579 442,762 427,973 600,961
316,366 335,400 283,475 328,907 146,007 160,329 164,537 335,508 281,737 455,033
321,781 430,397 280,066 318,256 149,252 210,266 209,249 373,493 364,158 424,972
415,441 488,024 319,216 344,289 303,673 266,077 292,861 464,244 541,366 652,917
259,653 333,762 229,982 161,434 113,667 180,256 230,998 250,835 360,775 398,526
4,870,808 4,893,520 4,094,616 4,157,500 3,117,017 2,569,198 3,135,564 4,111,355 5,006,125 5,536,351
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
236
In Contracts
Jan.
SILVER Mine Production of Recoverable Silver in the United States Year
Arizona California
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
183 W W W W W
Preliminary.
New
South
Colorado
Idaho
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
Mexico
Dakota
Washington
States
Total
W 3 3 W W W
416 W W W W W
W W W W W W
W W W W W W
597 734 544 424 322 302
W W W W W W
W W W W W W
W 2 W W W W
748 1,240 1,180 927 916 943
1,950 1,980 1,740 1,350 1,240 1,250
Sterling Ware
Total Net Industrial Consumption
Coinage
Total Consumption
4.2 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.7 5.8 5.6 4.6 NA NA
130.1 136.2 146.7 160.5 172.3 178.5 181.9 157.6 162.9 162.8
8.1 7.5 5.0 5.3 5.6 10.0 13.4 12.3 14.2 12.5
138.2 143.7 151.7 165.8 177.9 188.5 195.3 169.9 177.1 175.3
8 8 8 3 1 1
W = Withheld proprietary data; included in Other States.
Brazing Alloy & Solders
Catalysts
Batteries
7.5 7.7 8.2 8.9 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.4 7.9
4.2 4.9 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.1 NA NA
3.6 4.1 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 NA NA
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
Preliminary.
2
I ncluded in Jewelry.
Mirrors
Electrical ContactsConductors
Photographic Materials
1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 NA NA
19.5 20.9 22.3 26.5 28.4 29.2 50.6 34.1 37.6 39.5
71.0 72.9 78.3 84.6 91.0 96.0 73.9 65.8 66.2 61.6
In Millions of Troy Ounces Silverplate
Jewerly
3.1 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.0
3.7 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.7 6.1 4.9
2
2
2
2
Source: The Silver I nstitute
Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) Warehouse of Stocks of Silver Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Other
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumption of Silver in the United States, by End Use
Year
In Metric Tons
In Thousands of Troy Ounces
Jan. 1
F eb. 1
Mar. 1
Apr. 1
May 1
June 1
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
159,695 204,051 110,437 75,807 75,945 93,983 104,547 107,394 124,271 103,590
143,426 195,450 103,778 75,108 73,948 93,195 102,395 107,610 124,181 102,390
151,336 193,381 89,458 78,135 93,782 98,659 100,983 109,153 123,195 101,494
139,059 191,676 86,926 79,605 104,259 96,694 102,540 108,521 122,087 103,627
141,789 189,498 89,715 78,819 102,589 95,745 104,526 108,168 122,687 103,995
150,141 201,682 89,628 77,512 99,285 96,090 107,766 105,092 118,442 104,257
168,079 184,691 85,911 73,514 102,713 98,700 105,938 107,222 118,369 104,719
155,441 169,079 79,136 77,592 102,291 100,494 105,563 105,406 116,253 109,467
151,283 164,296 78,681 79,606 97,879 102,770 108,090 104,862 109,311 115,588
141,673 138,775 73,142 79,391 99,552 101,538 107,495 106,283 107,789 116,687
129,911 133,470 74,260 79,155 95,749 103,982 107,440 118,238 104,624 116,257
148,451 128,252 76,818 78,416 95,717 105,235 107,090 124,498 102,831 117,608
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX Division
Production2 of Refined Silver in the United States, from All Sources
In Metric Tons
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
373 343 338 424 436 405 544 483 407 402
299 262 486 420 1,177 343 387 426 418 505
332 296 426 441 551 405 465 320 460 515
321 331 372 356 399 360 532 412 337 568
327 250 377 368 431 360 509 357 361 450
316 326 374 394 390 331 398 431 177 558
354 292 394 404 361 395 398 430 175 556
314 344 324 316 402 380 419 373 351 440
333 331 463 354 400 338 473 361 433 349
344 281 443 371 469 403 437 809 255 364
304 340 469 364 386 442 394 363 390 310
403 382 447 396 401 383 485 471 678
4,020 3,778 4,860 4,608 5,780 4,545 5,441 5,235 4,442 5,473
1
Preliminary.
2
I ncludes U.S. mine production of recoverable silver plus imports of refined silver.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
237
SILVER U.S. Exports of Refined Silver to Selected Countries Year
Hong Kong
Canada
France
1,665 489 1,861 669 2,180 1,906 1,598 466 524 7,009
431
2
2
2
2 2 347 1 2 ---1 ---3
646 797 45 ------11 4 3 24
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
Germany
Preliminary.
2
2
2,205 2 22 ------3 1
I ncluded in other countries, if any.
Ja p a n
5,819 4,662 6,044 585 585 3,504 1,202 466 17 585
Singapore
South Korea
Switzerland
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
2,209 3,601
2,932 383 547 ---31 ---------16 1
1,177 2,413 5,369 604 624 727 354 727 630 2,321
10,288 15,850 16,750 3,569 4,244 ----------------
63,980 35,366 62,693 62,693 7,716 3,311 20,029 14,532 3,086 3
2
210 37 1 2 10 2 166
Other Countries
Total
Canada
Chile
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
338 256 7 24 11 46 243 149 82 71
6,655 4,662 4,437 5,851 334 ------1,813 -------
243 ---90 427 2 ----------------
7,236 4,918 4,533 6,301 347 46 243 1,961 82 71
27,649 35,365 29,385 34,722 43,403 38,902 44,046 48,868 41,795 37,616
2,003 1,874 608 813 1,048 225 2,054 2,331 1,987 2,042
31,957 30,285 28,774 41,152 33,115 44,689 41,152 67,837 62,050 59,156
13,728 12,153 8,873 9,388 5,433 2,787 5,498 6,430 18,261 17,297
2
2
I ncluded in other countries, if any.
World Silver Consumption
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20042 2
5 40 57 38 5 1 10,472 12,937 3,083 9,912
90,462 93,346 99,022 80,375 19,804 12,217 30,960 28,196 6,816 12,346
2
-------------------------
Other Countries
Total
9,197 3,122 518 3,945 2,521 35,899 1,771 6,350 12,223 4,774
84,534 82,799 68,158 90,020 85,519 122,502 94,521 131,815 136,316 120,884
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics, I nc. (ABMS)
In Millions of Troy Ounces
--------------------------------------------- Industrial Uses ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------- Coinage -------------------------------GerUnited United World GerUnited World Canada France many India Italy Japan Mexico Kingdom States Total Austria Canada France many Mexico States Total
2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1
Preliminary.
238
World Total
In Thousands of Troy Ounces
Mexico
Preliminary.
Year
939 624 402 688 180 109 105 ------108
Canada
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1
Other Uruguay Countries
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics, I nc. (ABMS)
U.S. Imports of Silver From Selected Countries Year
In Thousands of Troy Ounces
30.0 26.9 28.3 28.4 26.6 28.8 28.7 27.1 25.6 12.0
43.6 41.0 42.3 38.4 35.1 31.8 32.4 29.4 29.4 30.7
101.3 122.2 122.9 114.7 121.5 131.0 154.0 122.5 122.5 79.2
49.5 51.7 56.1 55.9 61.8 65.1 58.2 56.0 55.0 54.8
Source: The Silver I nstitute
112.7 112.1 119.9 112.8 122.5 135.0 119.3 118.7 115.9 125.1
16.9 20.3 23.3 21.7 21.3 16.6 15.9 17.0 18.7 18.6
31.6 33.8 34.9 38.6 39.3 42.7 45.9 43.1 44.1 52.2
148.7 155.0 166.3 162.9 175.5 179.1 157.3 161.6 160.8 164.8
752.7 785.8 828.2 801.5 840.6 871.8 836.5 807.0 817.5 807.0
.5 .5 .4 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 .5
.7 .7 .6 1.1 1.4 1.0 .9 1.0 .3 1.3
1.2 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .5
2.4 4.6 3.7 10.0 7.0 8.8 8.1 6.0 10.3 10.3
.6 .5 .4 .2 .4 .6 1.1 1.1 1.1 .9
9.0 7.1 6.5 7.0 10.7 13.4 12.3 15.3 14.5 15.5
24.7 23.3 28.5 27.8 29.2 32.1 30.5 31.6 35.8 41.1
Grand Total
777.4 809.1 856.7 829.3 869.8 904.0 867.0 838.6 853.4 836.6
Soybean Meal Soybean meal is produced through processing and separating soybeans into oil and meal components. By weight, soybean meal accounts for about 35% of the weight of raw soybeans (at 13% moisture). If the soybeans are of particularly good quality, then the processor can get more meal weight by including more hulls in the meal while still meeting the 48% protein minimum. Soybean meal can be further processed into soy flour and isolated soy protein, but the bulk of soybean meal is used as animal feed for poultry, hogs and cattle. Soybean meal accounts for about two-thirds of the world’s high-protein animal feed, followed by cottonseed and rapeseed meal, which together account for less than 20%. Soybean meal consumption has been moving to record highs in recent years. The soybean meal marketing year begins in October and ends in September. Soybean meal futures and options are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The CBOT soybean meal futures contract calls for the delivery of 100 tons of soybean meal produced by conditioning ground soybeans and reducing the oil content of the conditioned product and having a minimum of 48.0% protein, minimum of 0.5% fat, maximum of 3.5% fiber, and maximum of 12.0% moisture. Soybean crush – The term soybean “crush” refers to both the physical processing of soybeans and also to the dollar-value premium received for processing soybeans into their component products of meal and oil. The conventional model says that processing 60 pounds (one bushel) of soybeans produces 11 pounds of soybean oil, 44 pounds of 48% protein soybean meal, 3 pounds of hulls, and 1 pound of waste. The Gross Processing Margin (GPM) or crush equals (0.22 times Soybean Meal Prices in dollars per ton) + (11 times Soybean Oil prices in cents/pound) – Soybean prices in $/bushel. A higher crush value will occur when the price of the meal and oil products are strong relative to soybeans, e.g., because of supply disruptions or because of an increase in demand for the products. When the crush value is high, companies will have a strong incentive to buy raw soybeans and boost the output of the products. That supply increase should eventually bring the crush value back into line with the long-term equilibrium.
World Supply and Distribution of Soybean Meal
Prices – Soybean meal futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade in 2005 continued near the lower price range seen in late 2004. Prices at the beginning of 2005 were near the low of $154.80 per ton, moved higher for the first six months to a high of $238.00 in June, but then turned and drifted lower the rest of the year to finally close at $203.40 per ton in December. That represented an increase during the year of 31%. Regarding cash prices, the average price of soybean meal (48% solvent) in Decatur, Illinois in the first two months of the 2005-06 marketing year (i.e., October and November 2005) averaged $168.27 per short ton, down by – 8.0%yr/yr. Supply – World soybean meal production in 2004-05 (latest data available) rose +8.9% yr/yr to 141.075 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest soybean meal producers are the US with 25% of world production in 2004-05, Brazil with 18%, China with 16%, and the European Union with 9%. US production of soybean meal in 2005-06 rose +0.4% yr/yr to a record high of 41.240 million short tons. US soybean meal stocks in 2005-06 (Oct 1) fell –18.5% yr/yr to an 11-year low of 172,000 short tons. Demand – World consumption of soybean meal in 200405 rose +8.4% to 140.116 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The US accounted for 22% of that consumption and the European Union accounted for 26%. US consumption of soybean meal in 2004-05 rose +5.1% yr/yr to 30.754 million metric tons, which was a new record high. Trade – World exports of soybean meal in 2004-05 rose +8.4% to 48.330 million metric tons, which was a new record high. Brazil accounted for 35% of world exports in 2004-05 and the US accounted for 11%. World imports of soybean meal in 2004-05 rose +6.4% yr/yr to 47.759 million metric tons, which was a new record high. US exports of soybean meal in 2004-05 rose +31.2% yr/yr to 5.700 million short tons, recovering from the 3-decade low of 4.344 million short tons seen in 2003-04. US imports of soybean meal in 2004-05 fell –38.9% yr/yr to 165,000 short tons from the record high of 270,000 short tons seen in 2003-04.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year ------------------------ Production ------------------------ ----------- Exports ------------ ----- Imports -----Beginning United United Oct. 1 Brazil China EU States Total Brazil States Total EU Total
--------- Consumption --------- --- Ending Stocks --United United EU States Total Brazil States Total
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
22,340 24,562 27,258 28,991 30,375 33,006 33,026 32,641 33,208 33,675
1
15,728 15,729 16,651 16,478 17,725 19,407 21,449 22,360 22,418 23,170
Preliminary.
2
5,963 6,717 10,023 11,975 15,050 16,300 21,000 20,190 24,026 27,499
Forecast.
11,428 12,126 12,354 11,213 13,073 13,885 12,825 11,100 11,578 11,325
31,035 90,330 34,633 98,135 34,285 107,132 34,102 107,016 35,730 116,191 36,552 125,153 34,649 130,507 32,953 128,320 36,938 138,344 37,025 145,182
10,557 9,587 9,813 9,950 10,673 11,862 13,612 14,761 14,242 14,192
6,451 8,722 6,979 6,912 7,335 7,271 5,728 4,690 6,659 5,987
30,057 11,420 33,245 13,640 35,366 16,425 34,569 17,806 36,107 17,502 41,534 19,691 42,671 20,361 45,405 21,911 46,153 22,000 48,024 22,750
30,651 34,035 35,672 35,010 36,008 40,559 42,323 44,948 45,725 47,761
24,678 25,955 27,294 27,269 28,359 29,541 29,096 28,530 30,448 31,116
91,275 98,591 106,180 108,654 116,112 123,592 129,727 128,467 137,527 144,838
972 1,298 1,540 1,080 1,253 1,548 1,647 1,779 1,333 1,545
191 198 300 266 348 218 200 191 155 227
3,912 4,246 5,504 4,307 4,287 4,873 5,305 4,701 5,090 5,171
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
239
SOYBEAN MEAL
Average Open Interest of Soybean Meal Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
95,903 86,204 114,243 123,041 115,285 111,880 146,674 154,821 183,462 154,984
90,010 97,618 122,979 130,473 124,822 108,047 137,425 168,036 186,137 165,403
87,468 107,763 131,390 121,435 120,157 107,253 134,880 157,670 185,647 146,326
101,204 111,413 137,251 112,155 123,957 116,888 130,138 163,532 175,069 133,578
91,453 113,848 136,212 104,176 123,691 119,644 132,376 163,096 162,284 129,372
88,641 110,780 136,216 108,134 112,425 135,046 143,956 154,985 149,584 149,882
77,961 114,372 126,108 116,464 105,230 134,982 142,728 152,121 135,675 122,088
80,727 108,923 139,239 121,202 94,469 129,536 132,996 146,582 134,987 109,976
93,373 111,447 140,904 120,462 105,240 123,644 137,799 153,505 133,045 121,833
88,969 118,409 141,426 112,426 103,263 121,845 131,249 169,709 137,447 135,970
90,007 125,201 134,095 117,523 120,164 145,996 137,836 170,707 152,846 140,102
84,399 116,760 122,788 104,246 127,529 147,576 140,902 176,191 147,307 140,959
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of Soybean Meal Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
496,414 479,001 458,519 420,240 455,335 530,193 610,275 639,628 648,690 658,702
442,937 481,841 454,310 509,348 537,527 431,822 398,294 551,401 767,052 857,564
435,764 509,515 449,806 476,104 556,010 470,608 424,684 527,723 740,696 713,368
655,984 576,564 592,614 477,102 467,698 485,106 618,880 676,739 819,600 661,831
I n thousands of contracts.
240
May
In Contracts
June
July
Aug.
439,212 442,370 581,886 569,760 499,468 749,765 390,527 646,806 566,607 606,190 584,352 625,089 567,221 664,687 599,614 749,844 795,793 821,580 571,341 1,024,952
507,240 579,748 675,104 710,110 488,172 709,973 806,395 772,104 873,226 632,797
490,349 452,188 536,650 597,026 469,017 630,909 673,705 692,778 638,941 693,398
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Nov.
D e c.
Total1
425,850 581,126 491,917 531,299 589,542 561,133 504,088 553,224 521,231 568,859 511,503 572,194 484,617 483,174 690,313 491,398 652,931 659,328 581,155 613,701 657,822 677,194 896,429 700,676 547,282 559,711 703,500 602,947 497,895 694,042
Sept.
Oct.
452,139 512,471 559,067 447,078 513,328 472,063 557,688 674,315 653,172 715,779
5,861.3 6,424.9 6,553.8 6,326.9 6,318.0 6,743.8 7,174.5 8,158.4 8,569.2 8,324.6
SOYBEAN MEAL Supply and Distribution of Soybean Meal in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons -------------------- $ Per Metric Ton ----------------$ Per Ton RotterBrazil FOB Decatur Decatur dam 45-46% 48% Protein 44% Protein CIF Protein Solvent Solvent
--------------------- Supply --------------------Year Beginning Oct. 1
F or Stocks Oct. 1
Production
Total Supply
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
212 210 218 330 293 383 240 220 211 172
34,211 38,176 37,797 37,591 39,385 40,292 38,194 36,324 40,717 40,613
34,525 38,442 38,114 37,970 39,729 40,818 38,600 36,830 41,075 40,950
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
------------------ Distribution -----------------Domestic
Exports
Total
27,321 28,894 30,662 30,346 31,643 33,070 32,361 31,449 33,563 34,100
6,994 9,330 7,122 7,331 7,703 7,508 6,019 5,170 7,340 6,600
34,316 38,224 37,784 37,677 39,346 40,578 38,380 36,619 40,903 40,700
270.90 185.28 138.55 167.70 173.60 167.73 181.57 256.05 182.90 155-180
Algeria
Australia
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
203.4 250.8 263.2 213.2 202.0 178.8 219.2 184.7 176.2 63.0
157.5 136.7 135.7 167.1 167.7 157.5 243.7 384.3 209.4 74.9
1
Preliminary.
289 201 150 182 187 174 163 211 155
Dominican Canada Republic
698.8 662.9 791.8 796.7 827.2 1,050.6 1,133.6 1,091.4 1,212.9 1,198.4
260.7 261.5 221.8 309.9 357.4 364.9 358.8 317.5 156.9 264.7
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Italy
Ja p a n
Mexico
Netherlands
96.1 295.8 227.7 60.9 19.0 132.8 34.4 0.4 1.1 0.5
234.1 288.1 267.1 209.6 219.7 279.1 116.0 331.0 220.9 523.7
374.1 220.1 198.6 425.4 264.5 419.8 506.5 762.4 944.1 1,519.8
501.3 508.5 298.2 231.5 94.6 241.1 107.4 84.3 127.6 46.5
Philippines
Russia
Spain
Venezuela
Total
423.4 483.2 758.7 825.5 851.8 689.0 756.2 238.5 299.0 442.0
5.8 8.3 ---289.4 90.1 102.2 112.8 60.7 18.2 16.8
51.9 345.0 296.9 77.7 96.5 132.4 79.7 5.6 48.4 26.1
274.9 337.1 447.1 359.6 248.1 137.8 60.3 190.5 193.5 112.5
6,133 7,309 8,230 6,839 6,462 7,426 6,672 5,951 5,526 6,893
Source: The Oil World
Production of Soybean Cake & Meal2 in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
2,992.8 3,344.0 3,365.1 3,573.4 3,573.9 3,534.4 3,499.3 3,462.1 3,685.2 3,700.9
3,151.8 3,390.6 3,368.4 3,400.4 3,432.8 3,538.7 3,424.7 3,465.9 3,584.2 3,562.3
3,263.8 3,624.2 3,422.4 3,413.5 3,399.4 3,655.3 3,526.8 3,483.7 3,567.9 3,509.3
3,251.7 3,592.1 3,214.4 3,332.8 3,521.6 3,703.1 3,358.4 3,479.3 3,553.6
2,966.8 3,279.2 3,027.7 2,998.2 3,083.0 3,313.2 3,048.4 3,144.9 3,293.3
3,089.1 3,484.0 3,302.7 3,123.6 3,412.5 3,589.7 3,360.1 3,092.4 3,547.6
2,709.1 3,172.5 3,044.2 2,906.1 3,152.3 3,315.7 2,994.7 2,682.4 3,328.0
2,618.1 2,956.7 3,024.4 2,882.5 3,181.0 3,344.2 3,072.4 2,792.4 3,396.8
2,573.2 2,795.2 2,844.0 2,845.4 3,091.6 3,194.1 2,873.4 2,616.2 3,160.9
2,517.4 2,941.5 3,011.9 3,118.8 3,256.6 3,085.4 3,064.4 2,752.2 3,320.4
2,465.2 2,665.6 3,003.5 2,906.8 3,203.6 3,106.7 2,966.6 2,480.2 3,122.1
2,611.0 2,930.7 3,167.8 3,089.7 3,076.8 2,911.3 3,023.5 2,872.6 3,157.0
34,211 37,176 37,797 37,591 39,385 40,292 38,213 36,324 40,717 43,090
Preliminary.
2
At oil mills; including millfeed and lecithin.
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 Preliminary.
Yield in lbs.
47.36 47.41 47.25 47.76 48.06 44.27 43.90
Sources: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Stocks (at Oil Mills)2 of Soybean Cake & Meal in the U.S., on First of Month
1
278 197 150 180 188 174 197 273 215
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
U.S. Exports of Soybean Cake & Meal by Country of Destination Year
289 204 153 185 191 180 200 282 176
In Thousands of Short Tons
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
212.4 206.6 218.1 330.2 292.9 383.3 240.0 219.9 210.7 171.8
200.2 218.2 271.9 467.6 317.4 305.5 285.2 317.8 357.7 316.1
291.8 412.2 352.3 460.2 343.8 302.9 371.7 432.4 286.8 304.9
254.4 262.0 313.9 436.5 423.7 393.7 337.0 280.7 271.3
263.0 269.3 380.5 489.8 333.9 289.7 299.1 328.9 340.9
198.5 280.7 436.4 482.5 325.8 272.0 259.5 415.8 310.4
322.6 238.0 341.0 350.2 309.1 336.5 335.7 375.0 248.0
280.1 210.4 316.0 441.2 313.3 253.8 263.5 338.6 307.5
256.5 290.2 447.7 325.0 286.9 212.7 311.8 465.5 349.0
317.3 193.1 284.2 260.2 341.3 343.3 271.6 314.9 244.8
303.2 205.3 394.8 305.8 338.1 202.4 228.4 344.6 362.3
257.4 187.2 279.4 225.9 273.9 256.5 266.9 196.3 238.3
2
I ncluding millfeed and lecithin.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
241
SOYBEAN MEAL
-----
USD Per Ton Chicago (Oct. 1929 - Oct. 1936) 41% Protein, Chicago (Nov. 1936 - June 1950) 44% Protein, Chicago (July 1950 - Sept. 1965) 44% Protein, Decatur (Oct. 1965 - Oct. 1992) 48% Protein, Decatur (Nov. 1992 - date)
Average Price of Soybean Meal (44% Solvent) in Decatur Illinois Year
1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02
In Dollars Per Short Ton -- Bulk
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
168.6 180.6 156.4 183.4 238.0 216.0 129.4 147.2 166.0 157.7
170.9 195.7 150.9 194.1 242.7 231.6 139.3 148.1 173.7 157.2
176.4 192.5 145.4 213.6 240.9 214.9 139.6 145.4 187.9 146.6
175.6 185.9 145.1 220.5 240.7 193.1 131.0 155.0 175.6 Disc.
167.5 184.4 149.4 216.7 253.6 182.1 124.4 163.6 158.3 Disc.
172.4 182.0 145.7 215.7 270.4 165.3 127.2 166.6 149.1 Disc.
175.6 176.4 151.0 237.9 277.7 152.8 128.6 168.1 149.7 Disc.
181.7 191.1 148.1 232.3 296.0 150.3 127.0 180.1 155.6 Disc.
181.3 183.0 149.1 227.9 275.9 157.8 131.7 170.2 163.1 Disc.
217.6 168.1 160.1 242.3 261.5 173.3 125.7 156.8 183.9 Disc.
206.9 165.6 157.5 251.1 261.6 135.7 135.9 151.4 170.6 Disc.
186.5 162.5 171.8 265.5 265.7 126.9 144.1 166.9 163.5 Disc.
181.8 180.7 152.5 225.1 260.4 175.0 132.0 160.0 166.4 153.8
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price of Soybean Meal (48% Solvent) in Decatur Illinois Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
248.50 229.30 135.70 153.57 171.52 165.45 168.20 225.20 155.37 166.22
251.50 245.30 144.45 154.70 179.95 166.10 163.20 242.00 153.90 170.32
250.60 222.50 146.40 154.00 195.65 154.18 163.60 231.54 161.60 193.17
249.20 202.85 138.80 163.41 183.17 158.01 167.40 252.15 167.34 183.64
262.40 192.75 132.30 170.85 166.08 153.11 176.80 257.39 167.95
280.50 174.20 133.00 175.50 156.32 160.49 175.40 301.14 187.96
288.60 162.50 134.50 177.53 158.48 161.57 182.10 311.83 193.19
306.40 160.00 133.20 189.34 165.14 164.28 195.40 300.69 198.68
287.90 168.55 139.10 177.45 172.60 170.33 191.90 285.81 219.28
273.60 183.40 132.70 163.38 184.43 187.45 187.30 284.05 215.75
273.30 146.25 141.70 157.48 178.46 186.25 189.70 205.34 198.43
278.30 135.80 150.65 174.60 171.67 185.45 217.95 175.51 175.40
270.90 185.28 138.54 167.65 173.62 167.72 181.58 256.05 182.90 178.34
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
242
In Dollars Per Short Ton -- Bulk
Oct.
Soybean Oil Soybean oil is the natural oil extracted from whole soybeans. Typically, about 19% of a soybean’s weight can be extracted as crude soybean oil. The oil content of US soybeans correlates directly with the temperatures and amount of sunshine during the soybean pod-filling stages. Edible products produced with soybean oil include cooking and salad oils, shortening, and margarine. Soybean oil is the most widely used cooking oil in the US. It accounts for 80% of margarine production and for more than 75% of total US consumer vegetable fat and oil consumption. Soy oil is cholesterol-free and high in polyunsaturated fat. Soy oil is also used to produce inedible products such as paints, varnish, resins, and plastics. Of the edible vegetable oils, soy oil is the world’s largest at about 32%, followed by palm oil and rapeseed oil. Soybean oil futures and options are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Prices – Soybean oil futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade in 2005 continued near the lower price range seen in late 2004. Prices in 2005 were near the low of 19.70 cents per pound in January. Prices moved higher into midyear and posted a high of 26.18 cents per pound in June. However, for the rest of the year prices moved lower to close 2005 +8% yr/yr at 21.30 cents. Regarding cash prices, the average monthly price of crude domestic soybean oil (in tank
World Supply and Demand of Soybean Oil
cars) in Decatur (F.O.B.) rose +1.6% yr/yr to 23.39 cents per pound. Supply – World production of soybean oil in 2004-05 (latest data available) rose +8.7% yr/yr to a new record high of 32.647 million metric tons, which was roughly five times the level of 6.511 million metric tons seen in 1970-71. The US accounts for 26% of world soybean oil production, while Brazil accounts for 19%, and the European Union accounts for 8%. US production of soybean oil in 2005-06 rose +2.6% yr/yr to a record high of 19.865 billion pounds. Demand – World consumption of soybean oil in 200405 rose +6.5% yr/yr to a record high of 31.832 million metric tons. The US accounted for 25% of world consumption in 2004-05, while Brazil accounted for 10%, the European Union for 7%, and India for 7%. US consumption of soybean oil in 2005-065 rose +2.9% yr/yr to 17.950 billion pounds, which was a new record high. Trade – World exports of soybean oil in 2004-05 rose +8.5% yr/yr to 9.753 million metric tons, which was a record high. US exports of soybean oil in 2005-06 rose +2.0% yr/yr to 1.350 billion pounds, but that was still well below the record of 3.079 billion pounds seen in 1997-98.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year Beginning Oct. 1
---------------- Production ---------------- ----------- Exports ------------ ----- Imports ----- --------------------- Consumption --------------------- ----- Stocks3 ----European United United European United United Brazil Union States Total Brazil States Total India Total Brazil Union India States Total States Total
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
3,736 3,728 3,960 3,943 4,333 4,700 5,205 5,588 5,560 5,651
1
Preliminary.
2
2,582 2,746 2,753 2,504 2,961 3,165 2,922 2,535 2,643 2,584
Forecast.
7,145 8,229 8,202 8,085 8,355 8,572 8,360 7,748 8,781 9,142 3
20,472 22,398 24,479 24,521 26,736 28,906 30,535 29,830 32,458 34,146
End of season.
1,273 1,184 1,441 1,137 1,533 1,775 2,394 2,718 2,414 2,575
922 1,397 1,076 624 636 1,143 1,027 425 600 612
5,559 6,544 7,526 6,397 7,169 8,436 9,513 8,987 9,350 9,805
49 236 833 790 1,400 1,550 1,255 759 2,025 1,900
5,229 6,227 7,280 6,205 7,127 8,020 8,511 8,450 9,160 9,756
2,735 2,724 2,783 2,899 2,952 2,949 2,920 2,954 3,079 3,100
1,784 1,706 1,694 1,639 2,123 2,256 2,271 2,059 2,261 2,377
706 1,095 1,805 1,582 2,020 2,387 1,946 1,782 2,850 2,800
6,471 6,922 7,101 7,283 7,401 7,635 7,748 7,650 7,910 8,210
20,557 690 22,081 627 24,344 689 23,998 904 26,427 1,255 28,445 1,070 30,120 676 29,750 488 32,013 771 33,788 1,120
2,349 2,349 2,238 2,569 2,836 2,881 2,294 1,837 2,092 2,401
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Supply and Distribution of Soybean Oil in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------------------------- Domestic Disappearance -------------------------------------------------------Year Beginning Oct. 1
Production
Imports
Stocks Oct. 1
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
15,752 18,143 18,078 17,825 18,420 18,898 18,430 17,080 19,360 20,155
53 60 83 83 73 46 46 306 26 65
2,015 1,520 1,382 1,520 1,995 2,767 2,359 1,489 1,076 1,699
1
Preliminary .
2
Forecast.
Total Exports Domestic
2,033 3,079 2,372 1,376 1,401 2,519 2,261 936 1,324 1,350
14,267 15,262 15,651 16,057 16,210 16,833 17,085 16,864 17,439 18,100
------------------------------- Food ------------------------------- ---------------------- Non-Food ---------------------Total Cooking D i sa p Other Total Paint & Resins & Total ShortMar- & Salad Oils Edible F ood Varnish Plastics Non-Food pearance ening garine
4,578 4,688 4,842 7,153 7,908 8,234 8,566 8,296 7,900
1,667 1,623 1,589 1,481 1,465 1,298 1,212 1,138 1,210
6,119 6,188 6,191 7,075 7,361 7,373 7,900 7,889 7,730
68 78 120 132 125 125 119 NA NA
12,432 12,576 12,743 15,841 16,859 17,030 17,797 17,323 16,840
51 49 37 65 60 60 64 71 81 104
132 128 117 96 86 85 88 100 81 65
333 490 576 586 535 519 520 623 747 688
16,300 18,341 18,023 17,433 17,611 19,352 19,346 17,800 18,762 19,450
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
243
SOYBEAN OIL Stocks of Crude Soybean Oil in the United States, at End of Month Crop Year
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
1,873.6 2,553.4 2,097.1 1,236.8 1,019.5 1,641.0
1,961.8 2,606.0 2,114.3 1,329.7 1,013.1 1,706.5
2,035.0 2,658.1 2,197.2 1,390.1 1,111.1 2,036.5
2,140.0 2,815.7 2,186.9 1,737.3 1,348.2
2,262.4 2,686.6 2,062.5 1,797.5 1,425.3
2,304.1 2,741.9 2,028.7 1,675.7 1,588.7
2,321.7 2,661.2 1,916.0 1,452.3 1,560.0
2,455.2 2,757.5 1,843.0 1,410.3 1,658.1
2,587.4 2,529.3 1,706.4 1,296.4 1,622.4
2,718.3 2,350.9 1,595.1 1,198.0 1,715.6
2,698.2 2,338.2 1,458.4 1,001.8 1,525.2
2,692.4 2,176.7 1,282.4 887.7 1,505.9
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Stocks of Refined Soybean Oil in the United States, at End of Month Crop Year
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
187.2 171.4 197.1 175.0 235.8 254.1
205.7 181.4 212.0 200.8 178.4 178.9
263.1 210.0 202.3 189.9 200.3 199.6
239.3 222.9 209.8 208.3 212.6
211.5 209.8 209.5 190.5 222.0
199.9 210.8 215.9 180.2 222.7
184.1 195.6 204.1 191.9 243.4
200.9 185.7 210.8 241.2 236.6
189.3 206.5 222.1 217.7 216.2
177.2 178.7 199.1 214.0 273.8
171.7 183.5 196.0 178.8 200.7
184.8 183.2 208.3 187.8 193.6
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Exports of Soybean Oil1, by Country of Destination Year Beginning Oct. 1
In Millions of Pounds
In Metric Tons
Canada
Ecuador
Ethiopia
Haiti
India
Mexico
Morocco
Pakistan
Panama
Peru
Turkey
Venezuela
Total
1996-97 58,756 1997-98 26,711 1998-99 11,316 1999-00 22,715 2000-01 54,909 2001-02 87,047 2002-03 124,667 2003-04 96,450 2004-052 68,134
6,587 10,897 4,858 0 9,849 0 0 10 0
19,492 4,175 2,933 13,627 5,224 2,225 11,997 3,665 1,529
36,436 14,191 44,957 25,214 5,793 9,452 1,997 1,298 4,378
26,675 38,610 71,685 23,413 54,062 88,529 42,727 14,561 29,385
81,902 102,950 99,112 118,079 72,456 161,760 188,993 97,099 162,665
46,682 30,493 43,346 14,091 0 39,439 26,517 15,518 6,579
0 0 0 0 62,999 59,999 38,215 17 15,506
3,623 13,591 1,369 299 4,558 12,616 2,241 2,834 7,247
37,726 49,426 62,085 66,686 60,606 37,677 20,349 25,097 15,459
6,952 2,452 8,497 15,680 0 85,199 26,500 0 21
517 654 1,464 414 577 635 311 169 6,063
922,336 1,396,755 1,075,699 623,651 635,493 1,142,755 1,026,638 424,554 600,393
1
Crude & Refined oil combined as such.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of Crude Soybean Oil in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
Year
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
1997-98 1,590.6 1998-99 1,598.4 1999-00 1,687.1 2000-01 1,672.7 2001-02 1,680.1 2002-03 1,692.6 2003-04 1,630.8 2004-05 1,759.6 2005-061 1,828.6
1,579.9 1,598.0 1,596.6 1,590.8 1,629.0 1,631.5 1,610.6 1,688.0 1,756.7
1,689.3 1,610.6 1,599.2 1,579.0 1,696.4 1,696.0 1,604.6 1,682.3 1,716.1
1,684.3 1,527.5 1,579.8 1,642.3 1,706.7 1,612.8 1,618.3 1,680.2
1,557.7 1,438.6 1,417.2 1,435.7 1,543.7 1,473.6 1,462.4 1,564.1
1,654.7 1,586.9 1,481.8 1,602.4 1,661.9 1,633.3 1,461.4 1,686.4
1,525.8 1,452.7 1,367.9 1,485.2 1,550.6 1,447.5 1,260.3 1,579.6
1,417.9 1,450.3 1,396.0 1,478.7 1,574.0 1,491.7 1,314.6 1,620.1
1,337.2 1,383.1 1,359.6 1,448.8 1,506.1 1,391.0 1,236.0 1,497.3
1,409.5 1,451.2 1,485.5 1,525.6 1,461.2 1,482.4 1,304.0 1,586.7
1,285.6 1,452.4 1,388.0 1,506.1 1,474.8 1,440.4 1,185.9 1,484.4
1,410.3 1,528.4 1,466.0 1,452.5 1,413.8 1,445.2 1,391.7 1,531.1
18,143 18,078 17,825 18,420 18,898 18,438 17,081 19,360 21,206
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of Refined Soybean Oil in the United States Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
1,173.9 1,200.6 1,201.1 1,260.3 1,383.2 1,451.2 1,393.0 1,377.6 1,389.3
1,156.3 1,108.8 1,195.2 1,159.7 1,363.5 1,367.2 1,350.9 1,331.1 1,307.4
1,110.1 1,042.2 1,150.4 1,093.4 1,266.9 1,262.2 1,226.6 1,243.2 1,249.8
1,092.6 1,016.7 1,056.9 1,107.5 1,231.8 1,224.5 1,205.6 1,243.4
1,047.4 976.7 1,045.1 1,166.8 1,183.9 1,181.0 1,196.0 1,188.1
1,148.2 1,138.2 1,173.7 1,211.3 1,330.0 1,308.2 1,330.6 1,321.6
1,094.8 1,073.2 1,109.6 1,170.0 1,270.5 1,238.6 1,210.3 1,324.5
1,140.7 1,087.7 1,141.4 1,234.1 1,297.9 1,378.8 1,267.4 1,287.4
1,053.1 1,060.7 1,063.8 1,204.6 1,287.7 1,316.1 1,195.9 1,253.6
1,083.9 1,058.6 1,080.2 1,222.8 1,272.8 1,293.8 1,246.8 1,295.9
1,173.4 1,122.6 1,176.0 1,317.4 1,308.4 1,290.5 1,268.8 1,324.1
1,114.5 1,116.2 1,177.7 1,201.2 1,362.4 1,334.8 1,306.3 1,324.7
13,389 13,002 13,571 14,349 15,559 15,647 15,198 15,515 15,786
Preliminary.
244
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
SOYBEAN OIL
-----
---
Coconut Oil: Cents Per Pound Crude, New Orleans (Sept. 1918 - date) Corn Oil: Cents Per Pound F.O.B. Decatur (July 1924 - June 1985) Crude, Wet, Milling, Chicago (July 1985 - date)
Consumption of Soybean Oil in End Products in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
964.9 1,086.0 1,045.8 1,031.5 1,096.6 1,065.9 1,461.5 1,418.1 1,388.1 1,365.4
927.4 979.7 1,020.2 979.0 1,050.5 1,151.7 1,395.3 1,347.4 1,417.6 1,609.2
1,026.4 1,104.9 1,129.7 1,156.1 1,217.9 1,308.8 1,568.0 1,490.0 1,555.2 1,609.2
999.8 1,060.4 1,066.5 1,087.7 1,158.9 1,202.4 1,505.1 1,494.9 1,468.0 1,587.2
1,020.6 1,034.1 1,101.6 1,091.9 1,183.6 1,224.2 1,549.7 1,552.6 1,506.7 1,589.5
946.2 995.2 1,070.1 1,079.5 1,102.9 1,261.6 1,492.4 1,493.1 1,421.1 1,496.2
959.9 991.4 1,062.2 1,082.9 1,121.1 1,307.6 1,490.5 1,509.5 1,429.2 1,523.3
1,123.3 1,126.1 1,123.4 1,185.0 1,226.4 1,557.5 1,545.5 1,483.5 1,473.6 1,570.4
1,042.8 1,067.8 1,122.0 1,185.7 1,163.6 1,411.0 1,543.7 1,577.7 1,483.2 1,527.2
1,137.1 1,128.5 1,231.5 1,183.0 1,306.1 1,687.3 1,710.2 1,660.7 1,558.3 1,589.6
1,080.9 1,100.0 1,150.2 1,199.3 1,139.7 1,624.0 1,587.2 1,544.2 1,533.7 1,546.9
1,093.1 1,087.8 1,057.0 1,135.6 1,079.6 1,485.8 1,458.8 1,451.4 1,368.9 1,421.4
12,322 12,762 13,180 13,397 13,847 16,288 18,308 18,023 17,604 18,435
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Exports of Soybean Oil (Crude and Refined) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Pounds
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
189.1 190.7 449.4 246.1 103.0 130.4 249.9 277.5 71.2 78.1
97.0 239.2 387.6 231.1 146.1 184.5 446.7 319.1 62.8 216.9
68.0 301.1 268.6 130.8 161.3 142.4 233.3 273.9 73.5 74.8
75.3 84.9 191.1 230.8 91.5 105.8 233.3 211.6 38.8 73.3
63.9 28.9 148.1 91.3 48.3 51.2 87.3 109.5 44.0 71.7
16.1 44.9 204.7 135.0 109.8 109.9 345.4 966.5 39.3 68.0
27.1 144.1 161.8 111.7 105.8 89.1 180.8 234.5 53.9 52.4
28.0 212.9 316.0 91.2 57.0 96.3 95.3 116.0 68.8 138.7
56.7 152.1 108.9 196.2 69.0 70.6 109.8 105.9 86.8 65.8
121.0 217.2 189.6 209.1 43.9 233.9 113.5 152.5 59.9 76.0
303.8 424.0 343.5 114.9 115.2 138.6 194.9 111.3 184.5 154.2
213.3 199.7 376.7 157.6 261.6 164.8 210.2 133.2 239.5 107.6
1,259 2,240 3,146 1,946 1,313 1,518 2,501 3,011 1,023 1,178
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
245
SOYBEAN OIL
-----
Cents Per Pound Crude, New York (Jan. 1911 - Sept. 1929) Crude, Decatur (Oct. 1929 - date)
Stocks of Soybean Oil (Crude & Refined) at Factories and Warehouses in the U.S. Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Jan. 1
F eb. 1
Mar. 1
Apr. 1
May 1
June 1
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
2,015.4 1,520.2 1,382.4 1,519.6 1,995.3 2,877.2 2,358.6 1,490.6 1,075.6 1,699.5
1,992.9 1,525.6 1,416.8 1,616.4 2,060.8 2,724.9 2,280.1 1,411.8 1,255.3 1,895.1
1,898.4 1,525.5 1,406.5 1,663.6 2,167.5 2,787.4 2,326.1 1,530.4 1,191.5 1,885.4
2,027.1 1,679.6 1,312.9 1,791.1 2,298.0 2,868.1 2,398.0 1,579.9 1,311.4
2,172.3 1,787.9 1,505.6 2,013.7 2,379.7 3,038.5 2,395.7 1,945.6 1,560.9
2,203.2 1,711.2 1,607.6 2,099.8 2,474.0 2,896.4 2,271.9 1,988.0 1,647.3
2,171.3 1,762.6 1,716.2 2,092.7 2,504.0 2,952.7 2,244.6 1,855.9 1,811.4
2,163.8 1,857.6 1,640.5 2,099.2 2,505.8 2,856.8 2,120.2 1,644.1 1,803.3
2,143.2 1,857.0 1,767.3 1,991.9 2,656.1 2,943.2 2,053.9 1,651.6 1,894.7
2,137.9 1,712.6 1,647.4 2,028.3 2,776.7 2,735.9 1,928.5 1,514.0 1,838.6
1,978.1 1,779.1 1,671.2 2,120.4 2,895.5 2,529.7 1,794.2 1,412.0 1,989.4
1,699.9 1,453.2 1,630.8 2,018.1 2,869.9 2,521.7 1,654.4 1,180.6 1,725.9
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price of Crude Domestic Soybean Oil (in Tank Cars) F.O.B. Decatur Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
246
In Millions of Pounds
In Cents Per Pound
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
21.95 24.31 25.20 16.08 13.50 14.38 20.75 27.40 23.23 24.26
21.80 25.73 25.20 15.63 13.37 15.23 23.00 27.76 22.95 22.52
21.60 25.08 24.00 15.30 13.12 15.10 22.60 29.54 21.79 21.00
22.45 25.09 22.90 15.63 12.53 14.82 21.50 30.34 20.46 21.63
22.41 26.51 20.00 15.09 12.38 14.15 21.20 33.05 20.70
23.29 27.09 19.50 16.21 13.90 14.75 21.56 34.66 23.60
23.17 28.10 18.80 17.52 13.53 15.31 22.40 34.19 23.09
23.68 28.28 17.85 16.75 13.53 15.98 23.17 32.68 23.38
22.97 25.83 16.50 15.65 14.21 17.69 22.90 30.07 24.70
21.89 24.88 15.30 14.70 16.49 19.12 21.80 28.05 25.46
22.06 23.99 16.50 14.34 17.08 20.61 20.40 25.98 23.59
22.88 25.13 16.80 14.24 15.46 20.32 23.20 25.87 23.19
22.50 25.84 19.88 15.60 14.09 16.46 22.04 29.97 23.01 22.35
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
SOYBEAN OIL
Average Open Interest of Soybean Oil Futures in Chicago
In Contracts
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
87,214 89,112 105,798 115,407 131,948 134,677 149,103 143,607 198,361 159,229
85,611 89,348 121,657 131,875 135,196 133,497 158,157 140,272 212,204 174,091
87,859 102,388 142,100 136,967 143,699 123,770 149,913 131,323 186,745 161,971
95,954 101,191 160,004 133,404 155,114 128,360 136,198 142,123 159,478 145,808
95,422 101,544 159,248 131,993 134,093 142,877 128,707 147,584 141,772 135,515
86,366 104,433 139,934 147,749 140,582 151,713 129,480 143,218 136,887 155,962
81,440 105,346 117,487 157,999 134,392 162,395 135,762 147,610 135,649 147,542
80,090 95,282 112,177 147,280 135,506 166,318 143,144 157,066 142,574 132,351
83,211 94,521 115,879 146,239 136,590 159,467 146,759 141,596 132,936 139,489
98,514 107,471 115,260 155,768 135,584 164,521 139,626 161,556 147,046 165,634
97,496 119,877 110,386 163,439 142,712 167,803 169,978 183,747 154,316 175,229
86,119 106,406 104,738 144,798 134,873 154,589 155,871 191,176 151,800 186,760
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of Soybean Oil Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total1
354,602 473,290 443,562 367,303 424,232 327,570 474,824 522,939 521,293 475,115
355,220 381,921 556,982 555,097 451,677 458,445 497,396 540,645 722,580 799,873
375,237 503,998 497,887 520,622 483,212 416,718 468,878 473,694 736,173 579,599
443,408 445,848 673,091 463,236 438,526 443,454 496,990 618,483 760,153 636,304
376,716 389,741 624,518 350,850 451,162 403,110 526,918 520,043 631,157 565,511
423,089 439,626 648,098 489,184 533,376 541,194 588,386 740,549 642,917 852,259
512,563 442,846 629,642 516,205 422,418 751,299 701,455 761,460 657,542 548,334
449,014 375,122 491,155 552,198 456,195 612,349 648,853 594,687 549,538 637,067
425,850 417,970 558,032 523,376 436,841 447,390 529,442 636,469 565,439 594,781
414,018 413,722 383,844 395,243 378,419 550,995 549,942 733,405 552,890 607,054
396,233 489,541 450,073 497,090 507,044 579,460 705,373 656,464 654,338 672,849
454,327 511,369 540,379 433,491 386,801 502,341 628,026 618,502 599,294 707,384
4,980.3 5,285.0 6,498.3 5,663.9 5,369.9 6,034.3 6,816.5 7,417.3 7,593.3 7,676.1
I n thousands of contracts.
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
247
Soybeans Soybean is the common name for the annual leguminous plant and its seed. The soybean is a member of the oilseed family and is not considered a grain. The soybean seeds are contained in pods and are nearly spherical in shape. The seeds are usually light yellow in color. The seeds contain 20% oil and 40% protein. Soybeans were an ancient food crop in China, Japan, and Korea and were only introduced to the US in the early 1800s. Today, soybeans are the second largest crop produced in the US behind corn. Soybean production in the US is concentrated in the Midwest and the lower Mississippi Valley. Soybean crops in the US are planted in May or June and are harvested in autumn. Soybean plants usually reach maturity 100-150 days after planting depending on growing conditions. Soybeans are used to produce a wide variety of food products. The key value of soybeans lies in the relatively high protein content, which makes it an excellent source of protein without many of the negative factors of animal meat. Popular soy-based food products include whole soybeans (roasted for snacks or used in sauces, stews and soups), soy oil for cooking and baking, soy flour, protein concentrates, isolated soy protein (which contains up to 92% protein), soy milk and baby formula (as an alternative to dairy products), soy yogurt, soy cheese, soy nut butter, soy sprouts, tofu and tofu products (soybean curd), soy sauce (which is produced by a fermentation process), and meat alternatives (hamburgers, breakfast sausage, etc). The primary market for soybean futures is at the Chicago Board of Trade. The CBOT’s soybean contract calls for the delivery of 5,000 bushels of No. 2 yellow soybeans (at contract par), No. 1 yellow soybeans (at 6 cents per bushel above the contract price), or No. 3 yellow soybeans (at a 6 cents under the contract price). Soybean futures are also traded at exchanges in Brazil, Argentina, China, and Tokyo. Prices – Soybean futures prices came into 2005 in generally weak shape after the record soybean crop seen in the 2004-05 marketing year (i.e., over summer 2004). That record crop caused soybean prices to plunge in late 2004, reversing the rally seen in late-2003 and early-2004 (which was caused by the small crop seen in 2003-04). After price weakness early in 2005, soybean prices rallied going into summer 2005 as dry weather conditions threatened the soybean crop. However, soybean prices then fell during late summer and autumn 2005 after there was rain in August and yields turned out to be much better than initially expected, thus producing another huge harvest that was second only to the previous year’s record 2004-05 crop. The soybean yield in 2005-06 was a record 43.3 bushels per acre. The huge US crop caused the US carry-over in 2005-06 to almost double from the previous year to 505 million bushels, which was the highest carry-over since 1986-87. Moreover, the world carry-over in 2005-06 rose sharply to a new record of 53.150 million metric tons, showing that the surplus of soybeans was a worldwide phenomenon. Going into
248
the 2006-07 year, market participants were expecting another large US soybean crop for summer 2006 assuming the weather is favorable. Asian soybean rust disease was seen only on a limited basis in some areas of the South during summer 2005, but it did not spread north and did not turn out to be a major factor for US farmers. Therefore, market participants are expecting US farmers to plant more soybean acres in spring 2006. Supply – World soybean production during the 200506 marketing year (Sep-Aug) rose by +3.6% yr/yr to 223.021 million metric tons, which was a new record high. World soybean production has more than doubled from the 81 million metric ton level seen in 1980. The world’s largest soybean producers are the US with 38% of world production in 2005-06, Brazil (26%), Argentina (18%), China (8%), and India (3%). China’s soybean production has roughly doubled since 1980. Brazil’s production has risen by roughly 4 times since 1980. US soybean production in 2005-06 fell slightly by –2.6% yr/yr to 3.043 billion bushels from the record high of 3.124 billion bushels seen in 2004-05. U.S. farmers harvested 71.270 million acres of soybeans in 2005-06, down from the record high of 73.958 million acres seen in the previous year in 2004-05. The average yield of 43.3 bushels per acre in 2005-06 was a new record high. US ending stocks for the 2005-06 marketing year (September 1), rose sharply to 505 million bushels from 256 million bushels in 2004-05 and recovered further from the 3-decade low of 112 million bushels seen in 2003-04. Demand – The distribution tables for US soybeans for the 2005-06 marketing year show that 60% of US soybean usage went for crushing into soybean oil and meal, 35% for exports, and 5% for seed and residual. The quantity of soybeans that went for crushing rose +1.4% yr/yr in 2005-06 to 1.720 billion bushels. The world soybean crush rose +5.0% yr/yr in 2005-06 to 184.770 million metric tons, which was a new record high and was more than double the level seen in 1980. Trade – World exports of soybeans in 2005-06 rose +2.6% yr/yr to 66.823 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest soybean exporters are the US with 39% of world exports in 2005-06, Brazil with 38% of world exports, and Argentina with 15% of world exports. US soybean exports in 2005-06 fell –13.8% yr/yr to 25.855 million metric tons, which was well below the record of 29.204 million metric tons seen in 2001-02. Brazil’s soybean exports have more than quadrupled in the past decade and in 2005-06 rose +24% yr/yr to a new record high of 25.415 million metric tons. The world’s largest importers of soybeans in 2005-06 were China with 41% of world imports, Europe with 23%, Japan with 6%, and Mexico with 6%. China’s imports in 2005-06 rose +6.6% yr/yr to a record high of 27.500 million metric tons from negligible levels prior to 1994.
SOYBEANS World Production of Soybeans Crop Year4
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
China
India
Indonesia
Mexico
Paraguay
Thailand
United States
Russia
World Total
11,200 19,500 20,000 21,200 27,800 30,000 35,500 33,000 39,000 40,500
995 1,120 970 1,200 1,150 1,245 1,650 1,850 2,030 2,000
27,300 32,500 31,300 34,700 39,500 43,500 52,000 51,000 53,000 58,500
2,165 2,738 2,737 2,776 2,703 1,635 2,336 2,263 3,042 3,160
13,220 14,728 15,152 14,290 15,400 15,410 16,510 15,394 17,400 17,000
4,100 5,350 6,000 5,200 5,250 5,400 4,000 6,800 5,500 6,000
1,460 1,306 1,300 1,300 1,020 870 780 820 825 835
61 189 143 123 103 66 89 125 125 125
2,771 2,988 2,980 2,911 3,502 3,547 4,500 3,911 3,800 4,800
360 338 335 330 312 270 250 220 240 250
64,780 73,176 74,598 72,224 75,055 78,672 75,010 66,778 85,013 83,999
279 280 297 334 342 350 423 393 555 600
132,304 158,240 160,055 160,629 175,998 185,094 197,033 186,757 215,335 223,021
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. 4 Spilt year includes Northern Hemisphere crops harvested in the late months of the first year shown combined with Southern Hemisphere crops harvested in the early months of the following year. Sources: Oil World; Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA) 1
World Crushings and Ending Stocks of Soybeans Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
11,050 12,886 17,507 17,075 17,300 20,859 23,527 25,039 27,308 28,450
Preliminary.
2
20,023 19,946 21,174 21,084 22,742 24,693 27,168 29,323 28,972 29,487
Estimate.
3
7,500 8,450 12,607 15,070 18,900 20,250 26,540 25,439 30,362 34,550 Forecast.
14,381 15,278 15,344 13,994 16,598 17,636 16,290 14,129 14,730 14,400
3,650 4,770 5,400 4,400 4,525 4,629 3,420 5,534 4,710 4,977
Year
1
3,810 3,720 3,700 3,750 3,775 3,885 4,217 3,536 3,149 3,100
2,690 3,600 3,950 4,100 4,450 4,610 4,336 3,892 3,590 3,790
39,080 43,464 43,262 42,927 44,625 46,259 43,948 41,632 46,160 47,083
113,940 123,439 134,849 135,222 146,706 158,183 165,596 163,628 176,039 184,770
4,199 7,796 8,032 9,352 9,431 12,108 16,033 15,391 16,475 17,676
3,588 5,438 9,484 7,897 6,743 5,663 4,853 3,059 6,960 13,740
14,567 25,914 27,527 28,574 31,914 33,262 40,498 35,683 44,896 53,148
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------------------------------ Imports ------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ Exports -----------------------------------------European Rep. of World ArgenUnited World China Union Ja p a n Korea Mexico Taiwan Total tina Brazil Canada Paraguay States Total
2,274 2,940 3,850 10,100 13,245 10,385 21,417 16,933 25,802 27,500
Preliminary.
2
14,572 15,137 14,859 14,129 17,525 18,539 16,872 14,638 15,400 15,000
Estimate.
3
5,043 4,873 4,807 4,907 4,767 5,023 5,087 4,688 4,295 4,300 Forecast.
1,620 1,349 1,400 1,606 1,389 1,434 1,516 1,368 1,240 1,300
2,720 3,502 3,766 4,039 4,381 4,510 4,230 3,797 3,500 3,700
2,632 2,387 2,124 2,408 2,330 2,578 2,351 2,218 2,256 2,240
35,625 38,463 38,775 45,730 53,161 54,453 62,924 54,246 64,801 66,806
------------------------------------------------ Supply ----------------------------------------------------Crop Year -------------------- Stocks, Sept. 1 -------------------Mills, Beginning ProTotal Farms Elevators3 Sept. 1 Total duction Supply
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 Preliminary.
59.5 43.6 84.3 145.0 112.5 83.5 62.7 58.0 29.4 99.7 2
Estimate.
123.9 88.2 115.5 203.5 177.7 164.2 145.3 120.3 83.0 156.0 3
750 3,230 3,233 4,131 7,415 6,005 8,713 6,710 9,513 10,000
8,424 8,760 8,931 11,101 15,469 15,000 19,734 19,816 20,538 25,415
478 769 876 949 747 495 700 914 1,025 1,085
2,150 2,293 2,299 2,025 2,509 2,285 2,806 2,776 2,600 3,000
24,110 23,760 21,898 26,537 27,103 28,948 28,423 24,128 30,011 25,855
36,757 39,684 38,097 45,628 53,862 53,406 61,177 55,861 65,161 66,823
Sources: Oil World; Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Supply and Distribution of Soybeans in the United States
1
2,362 2,043 1,874 2,098 2,128 2,187 2,135 2,046 2,013 2,000
Sources: Oil World; Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Imports and Exports of Soybeans
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
In Thousands of Metric Tons
--------------------------------------------------------------------- Crushings --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Ending Stocks ---------ArgenEuropean United World United World tina Brazil China Union India Ja p a n Mexico Taiwan States Total Brazil States Total
183.5 131.8 199.8 348.5 290.2 247.7 208.0 178.3 112.4 255.7
Also warehouses.
2,380.3 2,688.8 2,741.0 2,653.8 2,757.8 2,890.7 2,756.1 2,453.7 3,123.7 3,086.4
2,572.6 2,825.6 2,945.0 3,006.0 3,052.0 3,141.0 2,969.0 2,638.0 3,242.0 3,346.0
In Millions of Bushels ----------------------------------- Distribution ----------------------------------Total S eed, DistriF eed & bution Residual Crushings Exports
1,436.0 1,597.0 1,590.0 1,578.0 1,640.0 1,700.0 1,615.0 1,530.0 1,696.0 1,720.0
886.0 874.0 805.0 973.0 996.0 1,064.0 1,044.0 887.0 1,103.0 910.0
118.0 155.0 202.0 165.0 168.0 169.0 131.0 109.0 187.0 161.0
2,440.0 2,626.0 2,597.0 2,716.0 2,804.0 2,933.0 2,791.0 2,525.0 2,986.0 2,791.0
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
249
SOYBEANS Salient Statistics & Official Crop Production Reports of Soybeans in the U.S.
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
Acreage HarPlanted vested ---- 1,000 Acres ----
64,205 70,005 72,025 73,730 74,266 74,075 73,963 73,404 75,208 72,142
Preliminary.
2
63,409 69,110 70,441 72,446 72,408 72,975 72,497 72,476 73,958 71,361
Forecast.
Yield P er Acre (Bu.)
Farm Price ($ / Bu.)
Farm Value (Million Dollars)
37.6 38.9 38.9 36.6 38.1 39.6 38.0 33.9 42.2 43.3
7.35 6.47 4.93 4.63 4.54 4.38 5.64 7.95 5.90 5.73
17,495 17,396 13,513 12,287 12,548 12,606 15,253 18,014 17,895 16,928
Yield of Oil
In Millions of Bushels
Crop Production Reports Yield of -------------------------------- In Thousands of Bushels ---------------------------------Meal Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Final
10.91 11.25 11.30 11.34 11.24 11.14 11.39 11.20
47.36 47.41 47.25 47.76 48.06 44.27 43.90 44.32
2,299,675 2,744,451 2,824,744 2,869,519 2,988,669 2,867,474 2,628,387 2,862,039 2,876,627 2,791,133
2,269,505 2,745,891 2,908,604 2,778,392 2,899,571 2,833,511 2,655,819 2,642,644 2,835,989 2,856,449
2,346,220 2,721,843 2,768,919 2,696,272 2,822,821 2,907,042 2,653,798 2,468,390 3,106,861 2,967,075
2,402,610 2,736,115 2,762,609 2,672,972 2,777,036 2,922,914 2,689,691 2,451,759 3,150,441 3,043,116
-------------------------------
2,380,274 2,688,750 2,741,014 2,653,758 2,757,810 2,890,682 2,756,147 2,453,665 3,123,686 3,086,432
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Stocks of Soybeans in the United States
In Thousands of Bushels
------------------------ On Farms ------------------------ -------------------------- Off Farms1 -------------------------- ------------------------- Total Stocks -------------------------Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Mar. 1
512,000 514,000 637,000 815,000 730,000 780,000 687,000 636,500 355,900 795,000
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
Jun. 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
Jun. 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
234,100 59,523 935,100 216,000 43,600 1,048,000 318,000 84,300 1,187,000 458,000 145,000 1,150,000 370,000 112,500 1,217,000 365,000 83,500 1,240,000 301,200 62,700 1,170,000 272,500 58,000 820,000 110,000 29,400 1,300,000 356,100 99,700 1,345,000
Jun. 1
Sept. 1
678,356 541,754 565,922 642,338 665,986 623,908 648,987 565,528 549,947 586,364
388,701 283,890 275,654 390,573 404,425 343,180 383,721 329,862 300,604 343,174
123,935 88,233 115,499 203,482 177,662 164,247 145,320 120,329 83,014 156,038
889,984 951,417 999,440 1,032,666 1,022,791 1,035,713 943,641 868,653 1,004,640 1,157,389
1,190,356 1,055,754 1,202,922 1,457,338 1,395,986 1,403,908 1,335,987 1,201,028 905,847 1,381,364
622,801 499,890 593,654 848,573 774,425 708,180 684,921 602,362 410,604 699,274
183,458 131,833 199,799 348,482 290,162 247,747 208,020 178,329 112,414 255,738
1,825,084 1,999,417 2,186,440 2,182,666 2,239,791 2,275,713 2,113,641 1,688,653 2,304,640 2,502,389
1 I ncludes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals and processors. U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
NA = Not avaliable.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service,
Commercial Stocks of Soybeans in the United States, on First of Month
In Millions of Bushels
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
57.2 32.6 35.3 39.1 34.1 34.5 29.6 25.9 35.5 26.5
57.2 28.8 31.2 31.5 28.3 28.8 27.0 13.2 26.2 21.5
59.2 22.9 22.9 29.0 30.0 25.2 22.2 13.9 26.0 19.5
54.7 26.0 18.4 28.7 23.9 22.5 21.0 12.8 19.4 16.0
56.2 29.2 14.5 25.0 23.8 16.3 18.4 9.7 15.7 14.8
44.9 24.7 14.2 18.9 20.6 15.0 15.4 9.4 13.5 12.1
36.9 14.3 10.2 16.1 17.0 12.9 14.4 11.7 8.0 11.5
32.7 12.8 9.7 17.3 12.3 13.4 10.2 7.6 5.9 8.8
12.0 6.3 8.7 14.1 8.6 11.9 4.6 4.5 4.4 5.4
5.3 4.5 18.6 19.5 15.5 9.6 8.4 7.0 10.8 17.0
55.2 50.2 43.5 46.9 38.2 34.7 26.9 33.0 31.1 36.7
50.6 49.4 40.6 42.3 37.9 38.2 28.4 36.7 32.9 36.1
Source: Livestock Division, U.S. Department of Agriculture (LD-USDA)
Stocks of Soybeans at Mills in the United States, on First of Month
In Millions of Bushels
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041
47.9 52.8 40.7 28.3 32.8 41.7 52.1 69.0 46.4 35.3
46.8 54.2 23.4 37.0 66.5 70.8 56.8 41.3 36.3 31.9
114.1 125.6 101.1 126.4 175.0 162.9 179.4 152.8 114.5 129.9
124.3 129.1 117.4 124.3 154.3 144.7 166.8 137.1 113.5 121.0
108.0 120.0 106.0 110.3 131.0 144.2 137.8 121.4 106.0 121.7
114.7 123.3 112.6 98.7 109.6 140.3 143.3 129.6 109.2 125.6
114.3 121.9 122.2 93.4 102.5 137.8 127.0 128.2 102.9 124.5
112.6 110.6 104.9 72.0 93.7 129.6 120.6 112.9 91.5 134.3
94.1 104.2 89.2 56.9 80.5 98.7 94.9 104.2 91.6 114.8
81.2 92.5 78.2 41.0 56.9 78.7 86.1 88.2 76.0 91.2
69.1 70.4 64.0 42.5 55.5 78.4 79.3 67.9 64.9 76.0
55.1 57.4 43.6 44.1 48.1 52.1 69.0 65.4 55.6 61.4
1
Preliminary.
250
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
SOYBEANS Production of Soybeans for Beans in the United States, by State Crop Year
Arkansa s
Illinois
Indiana
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
112.0 109.8 85.0 92.4 80.3 91.2 96.5 111.3 122.9 102.0
398.9 427.9 464.2 443.1 459.8 477.9 453.7 379.6 495.0 434.7
203.7 230.6 231.0 216.5 252.1 273.9 239.5 204.1 284.3 257.8
1
Preliminary.
In Millions of Bushels
Iowa
Kentucky
Michi gan
Minnesota
Missi ssi p p i
Missouri
Nebraska
Ohio
Tenne sse e
Total
415.8 478.4 496.8 478.4 464.6 480.5 499.2 342.9 497.4 532.7
44.8 42.1 36.0 24.4 45.2 48.8 42.6 53.9 57.2 52.5
46.7 71.6 73.7 77.6 73.1 63.9 78.5 54.7 75.2 77.6
224.2 255.5 285.6 289.8 293.2 266.4 308.9 238.4 232.7 299.2
54.3 64.2 48.0 44.7 34.8 37.0 43.8 55.8 61.5 56.5
149.9 174.6 170.0 147.1 175.0 186.2 170.0 146.0 223.2 178.2
135.5 143.8 165.0 180.6 173.9 223.0 176.3 182.3 218.5 227.9
157.2 191.0 193.2 162.0 186.5 187.8 151.0 164.8 207.7 196.7
38.5 40.8 35.1 22.8 28.8 35.4 34.7 47.0 48.4 41.8
2,380.3 2,688.8 2,741.0 2,653.8 2,757.8 2,890.7 2,756.1 2,453.7 3,123.7 3,086.4
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
United States Exports of Soybeans
In Millions of Bushels
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Total
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
41.6 42.6 27.9 69.4 51.4 31.7 30.9 34.0 47.2 32.3
95.8 174.3 135.6 122.8 141.4 158.9 136.7 165.3 177.7 143.1
152.4 150.4 106.3 104.5 123.0 158.0 152.8 186.4 181.0 140.1
121.6 121.2 90.4 109.1 106.6 133.2 114.7 143.2 155.0 83.1
106.5 91.1 84.3 104.0 103.3 157.2 159.3 109.3 121.9
105.7 94.8 66.8 103.1 126.5 132.0 151.5 82.6 123.2
68.2 56.9 72.4 109.7 135.2 63.8 92.1 69.9 96.4
58.8 36.7 52.5 50.6 52.8 46.0 66.4 28.7 65.2
43.0 27.3 37.8 45.6 39.8 45.6 35.9 19.1 49.6
32.4 24.7 36.4 46.0 39.5 43.2 31.9 20.2 35.2
23.2 27.9 36.7 50.3 33.1 56.0 37.9 14.8 20.0
36.5 26.6 57.5 58.4 43.4 38.0 34.3 10.8 30.3
885.9 874.3 804.7 973.4 995.9 1,063.7 1,044.4 884.2 1,102.7 1,195.8
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Spread Betw een Value of Products and Soybean Price in the United States Year
1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041
In Cents Per Bushel
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
117 68 84 177 53 48 81 102 77 117
134 82 92 96 53 61 76 108 73 88
114 58 105 108 38 64 77 106 52 94
107 64 92 87 40 58 89 83 60 81
104 53 74 57 33 75 85 86 53 84
103 48 74 51 30 61 59 65 52 81
85 53 62 35 35 70 65 65 61 96
72 67 54 33 37 70 72 65 53 96
58 44 82 33 34 80 67 57 62 85
74 50 67 29 36 81 81 63 59 97
62 52 94 53 47 69 96 64 72 150
65 47 123 43 45 62 92 89 74 127
91 57 83 67 40 66 78 79 62 99
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Soybean Crushed (Factory Consumption) in the United States Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
In Millions of Bushels
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Total
100.9 110.8 123.9 133.8 128.9 128.2 122.3 127.6 121.0 133.2
127.0 142.2 142.4 150.2 149.1 150.2 149.5 146.2 155.3 157.7
133.1 142.8 143.0 142.8 143.1 149.1 145.7 145.6 151.1 151.5
138.1 153.1 144.6 143.0 142.3 153.4 150.2 145.8 150.0 148.0
137.3 151.8 136.4 139.2 146.7 155.1 142.7 146.0 148.6
125.1 138.3 127.6 125.4 128.9 139.0 129.2 131.4 137.6
130.1 147.0 140.0 130.4 141.8 149.8 142.8 129.6 148.5
114.8 134.0 128.4 121.5 131.1 139.2 127.0 112.5 139.4
110.7 123.9 128.0 121.0 132.7 140.6 129.8 117.5 142.8
108.9 117.5 121.2 117.9 128.0 134.6 121.4 109.4 132.0
106.1 123.8 127.3 130.2 133.6 129.8 129.3 115.3 139.5
103.8 111.9 126.9 122.2 133.5 130.6 125.1 103.0 130.3
1,436 1,597 1,590 1,578 1,640 1,700 1,615 1,530 1,696 1,771
One Bushel = 60 Pounds.
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
251
SOYBEANS
Average Open Interest of Soybean Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
198,731 157,728 135,340 152,757 149,468 160,730 156,898 201,536 258,708 244,197
199,150 176,242 142,778 166,003 172,494 164,017 169,242 217,680 267,482 266,745
192,927 189,352 147,900 162,690 174,465 148,190 169,882 226,421 263,737 295,324
207,284 188,617 152,732 166,565 195,189 156,781 164,388 251,314 262,919 268,081
191,989 186,792 143,994 164,777 193,500 137,227 156,548 230,325 222,310 252,582
179,548 159,720 149,563 163,663 167,678 153,190 188,692 222,185 199,108 313,724
180,817 141,658 133,532 157,433 140,894 181,194 220,758 190,206 172,194 278,738
182,324 133,732 140,236 134,105 126,952 165,630 201,494 190,533 171,791 256,853
196,361 150,606 158,627 146,087 149,074 167,677 201,808 232,030 190,006 249,030
178,872 172,098 163,759 174,583 183,734 195,366 210,033 265,088 242,654 285,070
155,937 148,760 143,814 164,306 168,023 175,522 208,099 241,320 228,700 275,308
152,966 150,201 146,463 153,693 177,324 173,116 213,868 252,874 241,972 290,370
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of Soybean Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,302.6 1,119.8 875.7 871.1 1,071.9 935.0 1,078.8 1,267.3 1,509.7 1,398.6
1,122.9 1,254.2 971.2 1,025.3 1,099.3 947.4 899.9 1,222.9 1,879.6 2,085.8
1,009.4 1,405.9 935.9 1,440.1 1,191.6 843.1 1,065.7 997.1 1,957.2 1,959.9
1,683.2 1,585.5 1,116.2 963.5 1,079.1 916.3 1,238.6 1,588.9 2,036.2 1,656.5
1,149.3 1,391.1 973.6 823.6 1,321.6 909.5 1,048.3 1,368.2 1,593.2 1,454.6
989.5 1,355.6 1,378.8 1,149.5 1,302.0 1,155.6 1,311.8 1,723.4 1,601.7 2,577.3
1,295.9 1,217.4 1,286.3 1,502.5 883.4 1,508.1 1,762.2 1,385.7 1,551.3 1,675.4
989.8 835.0 884.5 1,669.8 801.4 1,122.0 1,346.4 1,193.5 1,107.6 1,487.2
1,050.2 852.3 864.4 903.0 860.9 648.7 1,002.9 1,308.5 1,052.8 1,069.1
1,002.7 1,505.8 1,264.6 1,158.6 1,188.8 1,356.1 1,486.1 2,416.3 1,635.3 1,765.0
1,695.6 1,010.7 867.0 839.4 932.5 964.7 1,070.9 1,535.4 1,395.3 1,241.5
940.1 1,006.6 1,012.9 872.3 895.3 844.1 1,163.5 1,538.5 1,526.1 1,845.1
14,231 14,540 12,431 12,482 12,628 12,150 14,475 17,546 18,846 20,216
Source: Chicago Board of Trade
252
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
SOYBEANS
-----
Cents Per Bushel U.S. Farm Price (Jan. 1913 - Sept. 1947) No. 2 Yellow, Chicago (Oct. 1947 - Dec. 1956) No. 1 Yellow, Chicago (Jan. 1957 - Mar. 1982) No. 1 Yellow, Central Illinois (Apr. 1982 - date)
Average Cash Price of No. 1 Yellow Soybeans at Illinois Processor Year
1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 1
Preliminary.
In Cents Per Bushel
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
557 632 820 703 533 485 484 469 579 639
531 656 711 684 536 470 468 430 541 729
566 686 704 727 572 464 483 441 575 763
567 717 708 699 558 460 506 438 566 772
558 737 737 679 532 473 477 437 570 823
560 730 769 680 490 500 457 440 590 872
574 726 833 662 475 513 451 464 580 975
578 791 854 649 480 529 441 471 611 992
580 808 878 649 468 542 457 492 640 958
577 778 837 640 462 510 474 519 635 890
623 795 769 642 425 474 517 575 601 809
602 816 741 556 465 463 510 567 589 641
573 739 780 664 500 490 477 479 590 822
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Soybeans in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
7.79 6.72 5.25 4.57 4.59 4.53 5.39 6.06 5.83 5.77
6.94 6.50 5.18 4.48 4.45 4.09 5.20 6.60 5.56 5.67
6.90 6.85 5.40 4.45 4.55 4.16 5.46 7.05 5.36 5.62
6.91 6.71 5.37 4.43 4.78 4.20 5.46 7.17 5.45 5.77
7.13 6.69 5.32 4.62 4.68 4.22 5.51 7.35 5.57 5.88
7.38 6.57 4.80 4.79 4.46 4.22 5.55 8.28 5.42 5.68
7.97 6.40 4.61 4.91 4.39 4.38 5.59 9.28 5.95
8.23 6.26 4.63 5.00 4.22 4.47 5.82 9.62 6.03
8.40 6.26 4.51 5.19 4.33 4.64 6.07 9.56 6.20
8.16 6.16 4.44 4.93 4.46 4.88 6.09 9.08 6.58
7.52 6.14 4.20 4.53 4.79 5.35 5.82 8.46 6.65
7.25 5.43 4.39 4.45 4.85 5.53 5.68 6.83 6.15
7.35 6.47 4.93 4.63 4.54 4.38 5.64 7.95 5.90 5.73
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
253
Stock Index Futures, U.S. A stock index simply represents a basket of underlying stocks. Indices can be either price-weighted or capitalization-weighted. In a price-weighted index, such as the Dow Jones Industrials Average, the price of each of the stocks are simply added up and then divided by a divisor, meaning that stocks with higher prices have a higher weighting in the index value. In a capitalization-weighted index, such as the Standard and Poor’s 500 index, the weighting of each stock corresponds to the size of the company as determined by its capitalization (i.e., the total dollar value of its stock). Stock indices cover a variety of different sectors. For example, the Dow Jones Industrials Average contains 30 bluechip stocks that represent the industrial sector. The S&P 500 index includes 500 of the largest blue-chip US companies. The NYSE index includes all the stocks that trade at the New York Stock Exchange. The Nasdaq 100 includes the largest 100 companies that trade on the Nasdaq Exchange. The most popular US stock index futures contract is the S&P 500 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
stocks in 2005 easily posted a new record high and closed up +3.3% on the year.
Prices – The US stock market in 2005 extended the bull market that began in October 2002 and rallied to a new 4-1/2 year high, finally closing +3.0% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite closed +1.4% on the year, and the Dow Industrials Index closed slightly lower on the year by –0.6%. By posting a 4-1/2 year high of 1275.80 in December 2005, the S&P 500 rallied by a total of 66.0% from the bear market low posted in October 2002 and retraced 64.5% of the 2000-02 bear market sell-off. The S&P 500 on its December 2005 high of 1275.80 would have had to rally by another 21.7% to match its record high posted in March 2000. US small-cap stocks in 2005 out-performed large-cap stocks for the seventh consecutive year. The Russell 2000 small-cap
The stock market in 2005 was held back by the surge in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices in 2005 rallied sharply and posted a record high of $70.85 on August 30, finally closing the year up 40% at $61.04 per barrel. Rising oil prices cause a double-whammy for the US stock market, reducing profits by increasing input costs and by causing revenue to drop through weaker US economic demand. The stock market was also held back in 2005 by the Fed’s steady rate hikes. Over the course of 2005, the 3-month Libor rate rose by about 2 full percentage points. However, the longterm yields remained relatively constant, thus preventing the interest rate situation from greatly damaging the stock market.
The US stock market traded mostly sideways during 2005 with a slight upward trend. The stock market was supported by another year of solid US GDP growth and doubledigit earnings growth. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies was about +13.4% in 2005, according to Thomson First Call. That was the third consecutive year of doubledigit earnings growth after +20.2% growth in 2004 and +18.4% growth in 2003. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies has averaged only +7.5% over the last two decades, illustrating the extraordinary 3-year stretch of earnings performance. The strength in earnings allowed stock market valuation to remain reasonable during 2005 with a price/earnings ratio based on forward-looking earnings near 16 all year. That was at the lower end of the range seen over the last decade, giving stock prices some room on the upside to rally.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (30 Stocks) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
5,179.4 6,707.0 7,808.4 9,345.9 11,281.3 10,682.7 9,923.8 8,474.4 10,540.1 10,539.5
5,518.7 6,917.5 8,323.6 9,323.0 10,541.9 10,774.6 9,891.1 7,916.2 10,601.5 10,723.8
5,612.2 6,901.1 8,709.5 9,753.6 10,483.4 10,081.3 10,501.0 7,977.7 10,323.7 10,682.1
5,579.9 6,657.5 9,037.4 10,443.5 10,944.4 10,234.5 10,165.2 8,332.1 10,419.9 10,283.2
5,616.7 7,242.4 9,080.1 10,853.9 10,580.3 11,005.0 10,080.5 8,623.4 10,083.8 10,377.2
5,671.5 7,599.6 8,873.0 10,704.0 10,582.9 10,767.2 9,492.4 9,098.1 10,364.9 10,486.6
5,496.3 7,990.7 9,097.1 11,052.2 10,663.0 10,444.5 8,616.5 9,154.5 10,152.1 10,545.4
5,685.5 7,948.4 8,478.5 10,935.5 11,014.5 10,314.7 8,685.5 9,284.8 10,032.8 10,554.3
5,804.0 7,866.6 7,909.8 10,714.0 10,967.9 9,042.6 8,160.2 9,492.5 10,204.6 10,532.5
5,995.1 7,875.8 8,164.3 10,396.9 10,441.0 9,220.8 8,048.1 9,683.6 10,001.6 10,324.3
6,318.4 7,677.4 9,005.8 10,809.8 10,666.1 9,721.8 8,625.7 9,762.2 10,411.8 10,695.3
6,435.9 7,909.8 9,018.7 11,246.4 10,652.4 9,979.9 8,526.7 10,124.7 10,673.4 10,827.8
5,742.8 7,441.1 8,625.5 10,464.9 10,734.9 10,189.1 9,226.4 8,993.7 10,317.5 10,547.7
Source: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
Dow Jones Transportation Average (20 Stocks) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
254
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1,932.7 2,295.0 3,275.8 3,172.0 2,812.2 3,029.9 2,735.3 2,297.3 3,021.0 3,587.0
2,030.0 2,341.4 3,456.8 3,188.3 2,483.4 3,010.2 2,719.1 2,102.5 2,889.4 3,614.5
2,136.0 2,427.8 3,521.5 3,296.4 2,534.5 2,792.5 2,942.9 2,094.6 2,838.3 3,779.4
2,180.0 2,464.0 3,586.5 3,477.7 2,823.9 2,776.6 2,776.0 2,278.7 2,941.1 3,527.8
2,229.1 2,635.1 3,401.9 3,628.2 2,813.2 2,908.2 2,734.8 2,429.9 2,877.1 3,548.8
2,213.4 2,711.4 3,373.2 3,396.1 2,717.2 2,770.4 2,702.2 2,459.6 3,069.0 3,542.1
2,053.1 2,858.0 3,459.3 3,423.7 2,822.3 2,887.3 2,432.1 2,554.5 3,099.8 3,663.1
2,060.4 2,925.8 3,021.1 3,207.0 2,835.6 2,852.1 2,318.5 2,617.3 3,065.8 3,726.1
2,050.8 3,086.0 2,763.0 3,006.2 2,641.5 2,344.8 2,216.0 2,744.7 3,205.1 3,637.0
2,100.1 3,239.9 2,647.8 2,928.7 2,491.0 2,217.3 2,216.6 2,841.3 3,372.6 3,673.1
2,224.3 3,155.7 2,953.4 2,988.7 2,792.3 2,404.6 2,321.6 2,920.0 3,589.4 4,051.7
2,273.9 3,233.5 3,027.6 2,902.1 2,822.9 2,603.0 2,331.7 2,969.3 3,750.0 4,152.1
2,123.7 2,781.1 3,207.3 3,217.9 2,715.8 2,716.4 2,537.2 2,525.8 3,143.2 3,708.6
Source: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, U.S.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (30 Stocks) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
5,179.4 6,707.0 7,808.4 9,345.9 11,281.3 10,682.7 9,923.8 8,474.4 10,540.1 10,539.5
5,518.7 6,917.5 8,323.6 9,323.0 10,541.9 10,774.6 9,891.1 7,916.2 10,601.5 10,723.8
5,612.2 6,901.1 8,709.5 9,753.6 10,483.4 10,081.3 10,501.0 7,977.7 10,323.7 10,682.1
5,579.9 6,657.5 9,037.4 10,443.5 10,944.4 10,234.5 10,165.2 8,332.1 10,419.9 10,283.2
5,616.7 7,242.4 9,080.1 10,853.9 10,580.3 11,005.0 10,080.5 8,623.4 10,083.8 10,377.2
5,671.5 7,599.6 8,873.0 10,704.0 10,582.9 10,767.2 9,492.4 9,098.1 10,364.9 10,486.6
5,496.3 7,990.7 9,097.1 11,052.2 10,663.0 10,444.5 8,616.5 9,154.5 10,152.1 10,545.4
5,685.5 7,948.4 8,478.5 10,935.5 11,014.5 10,314.7 8,685.5 9,284.8 10,032.8 10,554.3
5,804.0 7,866.6 7,909.8 10,714.0 10,967.9 9,042.6 8,160.2 9,492.5 10,204.6 10,532.5
5,995.1 7,875.8 8,164.3 10,396.9 10,441.0 9,220.8 8,048.1 9,683.6 10,001.6 10,324.3
6,318.4 7,677.4 9,005.8 10,809.8 10,666.1 9,721.8 8,625.7 9,762.2 10,411.8 10,695.3
6,435.9 7,909.8 9,018.7 11,246.4 10,652.4 9,979.9 8,526.7 10,124.7 10,673.4 10,827.8
5,742.8 7,441.1 8,625.5 10,464.9 10,734.9 10,189.1 9,226.4 8,993.7 10,317.5 10,547.7
Source: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Price Index Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
614.4 766.1 963.4 1,248.7 1,425.6 1,335.6 1,140.2 895.8 1,132.5 1,181.4
649.5 798.4 1,023.7 1,246.6 1,388.9 1,305.8 1,100.7 837.6 1,143.4 1,199.6
647.1 792.2 1,076.8 1,281.7 1,442.2 1,185.9 1,153.8 846.6 1,124.0 1,194.9
547.2 763.9 1,112.2 1,334.8 1,461.4 1,189.8 1,112.0 890.0 1,133.1 1,164.4
661.2 833.1 1,108.4 1,332.1 1,418.5 1,270.4 1,079.3 936.0 1,102.8 1,178.3
668.5 876.3 1,108.4 1,322.6 1,462.0 1,238.8 1,014.1 988.0 1,132.8 1,202.3
644.1 925.3 1,156.6 1,381.0 1,473.0 1,204.5 903.6 992.5 1,105.9 1,222.2
662.7 927.7 1,074.6 1,327.5 1,485.5 1,178.5 912.6 989.5 1,088.9 1,224.3
674.9 937.0 1,020.7 1,318.2 1,468.0 1,047.6 867.8 1,019.4 1,117.7 1,225.9
701.5 951.2 1,032.5 1,300.0 1,390.1 1,076.6 854.6 1,038.7 1,118.1 1,192.0
735.7 938.9 1,144.5 1,391.0 1,375.0 1,129.7 909.9 1,049.9 1,168.9 1,237.3
743.3 962.4 1,190.0 1,428.7 1,330.9 1,144.9 899.2 1,080.6 1,199.2 1,262.1
662.5 872.7 1,084.3 1,326.1 1,426.8 1,192.3 995.6 963.7 1,130.6 1,207.1
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
255
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, U.S. Composite Index of Leading Indicators Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
(1992 = 100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
100.5 102.8 104.8 104.5 110.7 108.9 111.0 111.0 114.7 135.8
101.4 103.3 105.2 104.7 110.3 109.0 111.0 110.6 114.8 136.3
101.6 103.4 105.4 104.8 110.5 108.7 111.0 110.4 115.7 135.4
101.8 103.3 105.4 104.7 110.5 108.6 110.8 110.5 115.8 135.5
102.1 103.6 105.4 105.0 110.5 109.3 111.4 111.6 116.3 135.6
102.3 103.6 105.2 105.3 110.4 109.5 111.2 112.0 134.5 137.1
102.3 103.9 105.6 105.6 109.8 109.8 111.0 112.8 135.0 136.9
102.4 104.0 105.6 105.5 109.9 109.7 110.9 113.2 135.1 137.0
102.5 104.3 105.6 105.4 109.9 109.1 110.4 113.3 135.2 135.8
102.5 104.4 105.7 105.5 109.5 109.2 110.4 113.9 135.2 136.9
102.5 104.7 106.2 105.7 109.2 110.1 111.0 114.2 136.0 138.2
102.6 104.6 106.4 110.3 108.8 110.5 111.1 114.3 136.1 138.6
102.0 103.8 105.5 105.6 110.0 109.4 110.9 112.3 127.0 136.6
Preliminary.
Source: The Conference Board (TCB) Copyrighted.
Consumer Confidence, The Conference Board Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
88.4 118.7 128.3 128.9 144.7 115.7 97.8 78.8 97.7 105.1
98.0 118.9 137.4 133.1 140.8 109.3 95.0 64.8 88.5 104.4
98.4 118.5 133.8 134.0 137.1 116.9 110.7 61.4 88.5 103.0
104.8 118.5 137.2 135.5 137.7 109.9 108.5 81.0 93.0 97.5
103.5 127.9 136.3 137.7 144.7 116.1 110.3 83.6 93.1 103.1
100.1 129.9 138.2 139.0 139.2 118.9 106.3 83.5 102.8 106.2
107.0 126.3 137.2 136.2 143.0 116.3 97.4 77.0 105.7 103.6
112.0 127.6 133.1 136.0 140.8 114.0 94.5 81.7 98.7 105.5
111.8 130.2 126.4 134.2 142.5 97.0 93.7 77.0 96.7 87.5
107.3 123.4 119.3 130.5 135.8 85.3 79.6 81.7 92.9 85.2
109.5 128.1 126.4 137.0 132.6 84.9 84.9 92.5 92.6 98.3
114.2 136.2 126.7 141.7 128.6 94.6 80.7 94.8 102.7 103.8
104.6 125.4 131.7 135.3 139.0 106.6 96.6 79.8 96.1 100.3
Preliminary.
Source: The Conference Board (TCB) Copyrighted.
Capacity Utiliz ation Rates (Total Industry) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
In Percent
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
82.1 83.3 84.2 82.0 82.5 79.2 74.3 75.5 77.2 79.8
83.0 83.9 83.7 82.0 82.5 78.4 74.1 75.6 77.8 80.0
82.5 84.1 83.3 81.8 82.5 77.9 74.7 75.4 77.6 79.9
82.9 83.6 83.1 81.7 82.7 77.6 74.9 74.9 78.1 79.7
83.1 83.6 83.1 82.0 82.7 76.9 75.2 74.9 78.8 79.8
83.5 83.5 82.2 81.7 82.5 76.3 75.8 75.1 78.4 80.3
83.0 83.5 81.5 81.9 82.0 75.9 75.6 75.4 78.8 80.2
83.2 84.0 82.8 82.0 81.4 75.4 75.6 75.5 79.0 80.3
83.3 84.3 82.3 81.3 81.5 75.0 75.6 76.0 78.7 79.1
82.9 84.3 82.5 82.1 80.9 74.5 75.3 76.1 79.2 79.9
83.3 84.6 82.1 82.2 80.7 74.0 75.5 76.8 79.3 80.5
83.5 84.4 81.9 82.6 80.1 73.9 75.2 76.9 79.7 81.2
83.0 83.9 82.7 81.9 81.8 76.3 75.2 75.7 78.6 80.1
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Manufacturers New Orders, Durable Goods Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
(1985 = 100)
Jan.
In Billions of Constant Dollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
158.86 171.73 184.33 211.18 225.14 197.36 190.08 194.21 201.03 215.03
155.10 174.80 183.87 203.31 221.12 205.41 194.99 192.26 208.36 214.09
157.67 170.02 184.17 209.39 230.44 209.56 191.78 194.57 219.67 210.62
156.01 173.13 187.35 204.68 217.17 198.11 192.65 190.00 212.63 213.77
162.59 177.05 181.58 206.78 232.76 201.86 193.48 189.13 209.43 226.21
162.67 176.93 182.22 207.27 254.20 196.99 184.76 194.23 211.13 230.86
168.25 175.82 186.22 216.02 220.74 196.53 200.59 197.39 214.32 218.57
162.76 181.08 190.39 218.02 227.27 194.41 198.62 197.18 212.78 227.14
170.45 181.15 193.18 214.83 232.41 174.92 189.66 201.29 214.36 222.31
170.59 181.33 189.33 212.77 217.30 199.09 192.67 208.82 211.53 228.76
169.34 189.71 190.21 215.34 221.14 187.14 190.66 203.42 215.33 240.51
166.02 181.44 197.11 229.47 220.90 188.34 190.01 206.56 218.24 244.21
163.48 177.03 194.42 209.76 220.55 195.44 192.80 197.41 212.40 224.34
Average
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Corporate Profits After Tax -- Quarterly
In Billions of Dollars
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Average
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
354.8 446.4 504.0 599.1 562.9 593.2
407.4 467.4 518.4 619.4 547.6 592.9
423.7 494.2 526.2 641.5 554.2 582.1
440.4 504.1 544.3 629.6 548.6 602.5
406.6 478.0 523.2 622.4 553.3 592.7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
551.8 556.2 654.5 727.6 889.4 925.6
560.5 565.2 675.8 783.3 887.3 975.0
551.5 516.9 698.5 822.2 858.2 932.8
547.2 614.4 746.0 865.6 926.4
1
Preliminary.
256
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
552.8 563.2 693.7 799.7 890.3 944.5
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, U.S. Change in Manufacturing and Trade Inventories Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Billions of Dollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
66.2 107.0 27.8 10.4 69.5 1.7 -0.9 -118.4 16.6 130.5
14.2 103.4 86.1 36.8 59.5 -40.5 -31.5 -60.3 108.5 75.1
-27.7 76.3 85.7 66.7 17.5 -73.0 -47.8 -18.3 107.0 60.3
61.5 56.2 38.5 31.2 38.8 -36.6 -20.1 0.1 101.2 40.0
-8.4 25.2 5.5 44.4 82.8 -38.9 33.6 111.8 88.6 21.7
80.3 76.8 11.4 61.6 129.5 -105.1 27.8 89.5 153.5 -5.7
123.6 20.9 -91.6 67.2 8.7 -68.2 78.5 24.1 139.9 -66.0
-272.1 19.1 47.9 42.5 87.4 -34.2 3.5 -39.4 373.6 57.9
90.6 91.5 67.6 58.0 10.1 -75.3 -106.8 78.7 -12.2 73.0
143.4 55.2 36.3 50.4 77.7 -200.6 18.5 54.4 54.3 60.3
86.1 43.1 51.0 121.1 26.4 -139.2 33.0 57.5 166.0 90.6
72.0 28.2
19.9 47.1 34.0 50.6 63.7 -65.2 17.6 17.6 110.5 53.8
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Productivity: Index of Output per Hour, All Persons, Nonfarm Business -- Quarterly Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Average
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
101.8 101.7 103.9 105.1 108.5 111.6
101.7 101.9 104.9 106.3 108.8 111.7
101.0 102.0 105.2 107.2 110.1 112.5
102.0 102.9 105.4 107.7 110.6 114.5
101.6 102.1 104.9 106.6 109.5 112.6
1
Preliminary.
70.9 5.8 -78.7 -86.0 45.7 29.5 107.5
(1992 = 100)
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
113.9 116.6 122.5 124.9 130.8 134.5
115.9 118.2 122.7 126.9 132.2 135.3
115.6 118.7 123.9 129.9 132.7 136.8
116.7 120.5 124.0 130.1 133.5
115.5 118.5 123.3 128.0 132.3 135.5
Average
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Civilian Unemployment Rate Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
5.7 5.4 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.2 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.2
5.5 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.2 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.4
5.5 5.2 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.3 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.1
5.5 4.9 4.3 4.3 3.9 4.5 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.1
5.5 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.4 5.8 6.1 5.6 5.1
5.3 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.5 5.9 6.4 5.6 5.0
5.4 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.5 5.9 6.2 5.5 5.0
5.2 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.1 5.4 4.9
5.2 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.9 4.9 5.6 6.1 5.4 5.1
5.2 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 5.5 4.9
5.3 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.0 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.0
5.3 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.0 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.4 4.9
5.4 5.0 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1
1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
257
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, U.S.
258
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, U.S. Volume of Trading of S&P 500 Stock Index Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,520 3,371 2,270 1,994 1,911 1,552 1,459 1,443 945 764
3,872 2,857 1,878 2,145 1,917 1,631 1,677 1,343 839 874
4,011 4,163 3,018 3,018 2,956 2,781 2,251 2,900 2,487 2,330
2,722 3,608 2,237 1,960 1,651 1,624 1,473 1,257 880 916
3,456 3,203 2,253 2,007 1,685 1,653 1,585 1,416 938 892
3,530 3,955 3,524 2,768 2,226 2,154 2,721 2,782 2,136 2,090
3,215 2,617 2,139 1,756 1,079 1,320 2,206 1,223 837 618
2,577 2,848 3,019 2,200 1,358 1,598 1,615 1,079 965 979
3,739 3,556 3,802 3,017 2,149 2,571 2,943 2,412 2,076 2,090
3,298 3,136 2,598 2,150 1,681 1,798 1,931 1,118 866 902
2,916 1,994 1,831 1,675 1,636 1,692 1,374 921 1,105 880
3,751 2,982 2,835 2,322 2,212 2,124 2,465 2,281 2,101 2,041
40,607 38,290 31,404 27,013 22,461 22,498 23,700 20,175 16,176 15,377
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of S&P 500 Stock Index Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
406,400 393,086 394,410 399,093 369,295 488,284 495,352 596,064 612,911 678,739
428,058 396,528 408,851 406,516 374,365 495,621 519,023 619,738 614,843 686,413
419,688 417,542 417,721 410,164 400,089 517,666 542,358 658,749 624,209 719,141
368,620 377,100 365,746 381,402 379,651 498,594 513,048 622,917 595,593 681,149
399,070 392,034 371,732 391,035 383,677 490,148 542,839 643,030 587,717 697,818
407,914 417,006 412,739 400,503 409,448 505,063 592,888 691,003 604,154 700,618
369,248 372,274 370,410 372,455 380,118 485,839 594,727 611,564 586,760 656,266
382,266 392,812 385,820 385,809 391,867 501,281 621,558 611,578 597,581 653,430
413,944 423,449 434,838 408,176 416,600 556,737 644,806 631,509 632,050 669,849
374,726 391,922 405,395 394,316 413,912 529,730 607,848 582,111 636,566 642,704
416,102 402,044 421,928 408,751 447,245 550,201 631,224 589,392 686,531 657,097
448,382 417,717 435,907 416,425 498,049 551,175 647,022 633,997 714,420 681,868
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of S&P 400 Midcap Stock Index Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
25,322 13,698 13,622 18,752 16,918 21,527 22,322 18,827 13,647 6,486
21,781 14,968 12,896 20,938 15,298 19,884 22,814 18,392 10,361 5,736
46,382 33,860 42,781 43,395 45,942 58,286 43,819 44,454 46,214 36,685
13,417 16,993 15,623 27,664 23,892 18,061 23,019 15,841 13,921 5,130
19,190 15,463 17,023 16,574 19,863 19,258 22,484 15,194 13,078 7,235
33,720 33,287 38,656 42,709 42,514 50,331 51,775 40,603 45,940 39,025
20,338 12,162 15,345 17,790 12,140 22,029 30,607 15,153 12,602 4,603
17,112 14,923 19,967 18,188 12,515 23,805 23,075 12,082 13,582 7,699
37,149 39,164 44,913 39,723 42,658 50,706 52,375 43,112 36,701 42,503
12,510 18,063 23,591 18,341 21,701 23,741 25,593 15,253 7,923 5,736
12,459 10,776 16,713 19,974 25,334 19,591 21,262 13,109 9,824 4,988
36,798 43,242 48,870 42,073 59,265 51,641 48,105 50,797 36,971 39,232
296,178 266,599 310,000 326,121 338,040 378,860 387,250 302,817 260,764 205,058
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of S&P 400 Midcap Stock Index Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
11,088 11,215 12,688 16,191 12,810 15,246 13,691 13,793 15,911 13,078
10,474 11,825 13,319 16,309 13,119 15,461 14,109 13,498 15,988 13,313
11,375 11,258 14,363 14,573 13,965 17,235 14,954 14,530 16,554 14,861
8,700 9,721 14,130 12,154 12,495 16,953 14,340 13,120 15,870 11,812
9,254 10,807 13,352 12,705 13,355 15,623 16,402 13,353 15,819 11,832
10,403 10,877 13,940 14,422 14,040 16,606 16,611 13,986 17,148 13,811
9,763 11,292 12,964 14,263 12,957 16,334 15,121 13,123 13,939 12,380
10,867 12,346 13,589 13,496 13,162 16,132 16,213 13,029 13,600 12,420
11,168 13,505 14,893 13,182 15,026 16,718 17,006 13,726 14,213 14,477
9,641 11,595 16,645 12,699 16,143 15,109 14,695 14,014 13,339 12,890
10,596 11,874 16,768 13,933 16,510 15,307 15,394 15,465 14,046 12,955
11,107 13,329 17,569 14,902 17,479 15,337 16,432 17,446 14,755 13,822
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
259
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, U.S. Volume of Trading of NASDAQ 100 Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
111,120 349,813 422,811 380,076 360,307 271,404 254,437
132,436 366,408 416,445 367,561 301,454 268,590 198,956
169,368 575,942 650,488 436,495 487,916 591,556 375,435
181,776 503,064 498,026 378,294 301,395 321,242 217,304
172,840 460,085 487,334 443,579 330,640 297,320 170,882
226,193 432,062 542,305 529,496 519,597 427,805 281,483
164,822 296,944 369,731 454,630 350,514 286,693 125,500
176,429 310,549 369,845 334,242 251,058 245,050 159,789
242,149 445,334 474,133 466,898 488,363 433,251 289,113
209,007 490,863 516,469 367,750 322,898 286,048 200,952
218,672 400,412 391,042 315,925 259,960 226,853 155,141
317,418 464,454 434,690 428,341 447,119 356,171 253,066
2,322,230 5,095,930 5,573,319 4,903,287 4,421,221 4,011,983 2,682,058
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of NASDAQ 100 Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
10,669 27,242 46,582 49,992 71,219 73,805 72,299
14,766 34,555 49,495 52,883 79,905 74,892 81,327
19,786 37,795 59,916 52,617 87,252 89,874 78,387
21,286 36,512 56,328 51,157 71,636 81,220 56,668
23,028 37,578 49,337 65,219 77,717 80,905 57,116
26,938 35,314 54,394 73,151 88,914 83,282 56,836
21,646 29,974 50,854 60,625 80,002 69,818 49,357
22,765 32,922 55,234 67,760 83,940 71,711 53,270
21,808 34,754 61,665 84,317 91,685 84,355 61,369
19,946 35,559 51,977 72,229 75,191 74,161 60,918
23,429 44,022 61,196 77,451 85,651 83,675 59,754
27,876 48,757 67,769 76,660 86,480 87,172 63,712
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Dow Jones Industrials Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
284,341 322,046 275,814 409,009 452,579 224,713 149,353
262,932 340,377 310,088 472,893 426,198 207,423 107,824
341,744 472,179 594,326 538,804 559,372 362,668 226,113
365,209 321,026 411,767 467,571 428,972 203,745 157,010
364,417 284,005 377,620 456,210 410,967 208,229 124,999
365,429 270,374 389,919 616,754 473,432 246,564 192,165
279,381 215,234 320,335 811,518 368,277 183,469 96,885
342,753 211,612 410,927 539,507 286,508 149,931 121,793
386,373 277,620 573,479 639,154 367,845 230,829 188,541
378,531 319,636 520,885 699,005 218,394 169,627 133,636
266,183 267,051 375,793 427,235 157,726 152,412 108,737
257,805 268,010 329,898 407,665 266,032 237,528 180,349
3,895,098 3,569,170 4,890,851 6,485,325 4,416,302 2,577,138 1,787,405
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Average Open Interest of Dow Jones Industrials Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
16,794 13,713 21,830 23,862 27,032 34,656 47,754
19,401 16,331 23,423 35,588 30,429 44,306 48,665
19,807 20,443 28,340 37,582 34,371 50,172 48,423
20,492 18,157 32,497 28,714 31,160 44,494 40,068
25,890 19,253 33,767 32,810 34,936 45,304 41,367
22,198 17,394 29,357 34,482 36,352 46,641 36,909
21,556 14,367 26,792 32,412 36,773 42,790 29,042
25,333 15,748 33,015 32,272 43,974 42,042 30,921
23,977 14,840 35,451 34,665 41,747 45,940 37,232
24,847 15,087 31,997 31,923 34,066 41,250 36,378
22,342 19,113 30,598 34,045 37,835 43,662 37,588
17,299 20,966 27,018 31,892 39,727 53,469 43,819
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of E-mini NASDAQ 100 Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
---304 1,845 3,719 5,200 6,157 7,174
---382 1,942 3,649 4,620 5,640 6,149
---604 2,603 3,652 5,749 8,011 7,336
---628 2,873 4,227 5,132 6,387 7,256
---745 2,908 4,625 5,075 6,749 5,735
29 762 2,969 4,713 6,323 5,646 6,233
62 756 2,529 5,789 6,369 7,139 4,895
83 883 2,568 4,225 4,816 6,123 5,171
90 1,508 2,387 4,337 7,095 6,476 5,624
105 1,589 3,935 6,252 6,601 7,322 6,583
113 1,446 3,151 4,812 5,254 5,844 5,288
193 1,512 2,595 4,490 5,655 5,675 5,008
675 11,118 32,304 54,491 67,889 77,169 72,453
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of E-mini NASDAQ 100 Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
---8,582 45,370 78,070 169,160 205,078 339,077
---9,250 65,061 94,150 227,905 251,011 419,715
---11,117 79,962 98,159 258,023 251,486 382,805
---15,625 78,094 100,849 196,739 257,573 310,664
---23,465 90,822 153,348 240,759 304,034 331,447
894 26,095 95,236 176,394 257,390 261,067 290,759
2,410 23,863 90,803 130,337 262,564 213,080 270,134
4,320 31,506 131,259 171,043 316,032 256,749 325,508
3,867 30,956 132,349 162,133 287,936 299,794 307,007
3,037 33,123 75,686 110,952 214,659 279,170 365,277
5,051 58,709 115,350 154,104 279,379 374,750 382,667
8,685 54,420 124,023 155,987 244,333 384,492 371,388
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
260
In Contracts
Jan.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, U.S. Volume of Trading of E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
576 1,306 2,226 4,933 13,584 13,087 15,447
636 1,388 2,231 5,337 12,631 11,355 12,561
775 1,489 3,191 5,609 15,820 18,033 18,478
602 1,462 3,067 7,165 13,520 14,993 20,182
843 1,676 2,931 7,564 12,846 15,889 16,591
868 1,550 2,905 9,772 15,040 12,428 17,371
887 1,403 2,925 14,277 14,854 14,361 14,400
1,065 1,439 3,478 11,200 10,860 12,921 17,759
1,144 1,683 3,601 11,765 15,354 12,755 18,786
1,237 2,109 5,255 17,175 14,558 14,636 22,929
1,072 1,843 4,021 11,054 11,002 13,705 16,088
964 1,673 3,289 9,892 11,108 13,039 16,503
10,669 19,021 39,119 115,742 161,177 167,203 207,096
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures in Chicago Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
16,215 17,180 55,514 86,278 265,170 510,518 827,306
F eb.
Mar.
24,969 20,971 25,282 29,645 68,516 79,934 120,099 139,965 356,616 490,037 576,446 643,118 901,656 1,013,623
Apr.
May
June
44,037 20,790 28,738 38,257 91,866 110,788 156,392 225,593 567,591 741,790 545,385 579,876 943,262 1,014,855
22,077 39,918 91,638 246,288 718,511 645,794 986,841
July
In Contracts Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
16,960 25,551 24,960 25,056 30,013 26,544 33,696 45,619 42,442 49,468 66,143 63,052 97,093 126,197 152,253 134,662 224,754 178,681 291,654 349,037 319,341 312,885 418,964 385,220 399,502 492,470 513,398 460,938 467,668 525,310 603,841 697,956 693,529 708,359 979,884 969,343 932,564 1,060,846 1,110,079 1,042,151 1,166,371 1,211,347
Source: I ndex and Option Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of NYSE Composite Stock Index Futures1 in New York Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
30,430 15,324 5,490 20,273 3,917 3,427 610
31,482 16,603 4,307 21,056 5,622 1,127 2,469
49,055 21,235 19,300 26,949 9,210 2,532 5,022
29,219 14,394 6,594 27,801 7,718 159 3,272
26,201 10,637 4,091 24,166 2,794 56 50
27,103 11,210 10,353 22,325 4,366 1,705 900
15,653 4,307 23,855 21,873 628 76 44
22,556 5,574 32,182 14,561 553 412 22
28,433 5,085 23,399 13,193 1,940 1,766 802
23,058 6,145 22,276 10,821 408 46 73
16,528 5,170 19,231 5,897 726 915 31
17,848 9,974 34,661 7,564 3,282 2,457 752
317,566 125,658 205,739 216,479 41,164 14,678 14,047
Data thru Feb 2003 are Old I ndex ($500), Mar 2003 thru Sep 2003 are Old ($500) and New I ndex ($50).
Source: New York Futures Exchange (NYFE)
Average Open Interest of NYSE Composite Stock Index Futures1 in New York Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
8,299 3,653 2,387 4,341 1,255 1,180 1,108
8,661 3,715 2,648 4,215 1,496 1,230 668
5,457 3,747 3,510 5,147 1,898 999 711
4,050 3,285 3,694 4,141 1,670 733 659
4,169 2,533 2,929 3,605 1,391 758 340
3,849 2,597 2,408 3,178 1,294 734 344
3,419 2,452 5,271 5,157 936 696 300
3,882 2,793 5,802 5,772 1,009 717 296
3,730 2,463 5,451 3,649 1,106 703 313
3,958 1,690 6,448 1,567 533 656 298
4,447 1,943 6,884 2,209 604 837 300
4,260 2,406 6,617 2,065 752 739 309
Data thru Feb 2003 are Old I ndex ($500), Mar 2003 thru Sep 2003 are Old ($500) and New I ndex ($50).
Volume of Trading of Mini-Value Line Stock Index Futures in Kansas City Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
Source: New York Futures Exchange (NYFE)
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
2,938 1,397 1,248 1,513 376 130 84
3,241 1,097 1,470 1,237 181 134 68
4,800 1,468 2,441 1,598 721 159 45
3,958 1,054 1,650 1,283 264 175 6
1,915 1,280 902 1,794 90 63 247
3,546 811 1,325 1,511 88 215 584
1,792 698 1,183 1,878 46 77 437
1,739 642 1,071 1,113 153 33 320
2,184 1,003 1,982 974 80 126 408
1,908 1,328 1,591 1,472 94 76 532
1,225 1,526 1,104 1,467 94 67 2,109
1,547 1,460 1,387 1,530 204 174 2,266
30,793 13,764 17,354 17,370 2,391 1,429 7,106
Source: Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT)
Average Open Interest of Mini-Value Line Stock Index Futures in Kansas City
In Contracts
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
746 273 233 299 376 47 32
738 284 333 348 328 64 33
699 246 377 367 169 49 18
725 135 233 372 89 48 10
900 155 275 359 45 47 17
967 148 285 229 33 56 49
515 155 283 142 26 61 71
503 216 268 161 33 56 59
381 179 222 100 48 40 68
314 182 125 127 36 15 104
300 181 249 300 40 22 166
283 185 368 417 46 32 185
Source: Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT)
261
Stock Index Futures, Worldwide World stocks – World stock markets in 2005 put in the third consecutive year of strong gains following the 2000-02 bear market and many stock indices rallied to new record highs in 2005. The MSCI World Index, a benchmark for large companies based in 23 developed countries, rallied by +10.0% in 2005, adding to the +15.2% gain seen in 2004 and the +33.8% gain seen in 2003. That 3-year gain followed the three consecutive years of declines in 2002 (-19.5%), 2001 (-16.5%), and 2000 (-12.9%). In January 2006, the MSCI World index rallied to a new record high of 3867.81, taking out the previous record high of 3772.66 that was established in March 2000 before the stock market bubble burst. The world stock markets traded sideways in the first several months of 2005, but then rallied sharply starting in April. Oil prices rallied sharply in 2005 and the US Federal Reserve steadily raised its federal funds rate target. Nevertheless, world stock prices were able to rally on a combination of improving world GDP growth and strong earnings. The European Central Bank fostered a sustained economic expansion in Europe by keeping its refinancing rate low at 2.00% through most of the year until a small rate hike to 2.25% on December 1, 2005. The Bank of Japan maintained its zero interest rate monetary policy all year, and the Japanese economy responded by finally appearing to enter a sustainable expansion after more than a decade of negligible growth. China was once again a major factor in driving the world economy with its blistering GDP growth rate of +10.1%. Strong demand from China for all manner of world products and services was the major engine of world economic growth, and particularly boosted its neighbors in Asia such as Japan and South Korea. Small-Capitalization Stocks – World small-cap stocks did better than the large-cap stocks in 2005 and easily rallied to a new record high. The small-caps performed well mainly because earnings growth in small-cap companies remained well in excess of large-caps. The MSCI World Small-Cap Index, which tracks companies with market caps between $200 million and $1.5 billion, rallied +14.3% in 2005, beating the MSCI World Index’s return of +10.0% by 4.3 percentage points. That was the third straight year that small-caps beat large-caps, with the MSCI World Small-Cap Index beating the MSCI World Index by 7.4 percentage points in 2004 (+22.6% vs +15.2%) and by 22.3 percentage points in 2003 (+55.5% vs +33.2%). World Industry Groups – The Morgan Stanley Industry Sectors performed as follows in terms of ranking: Energy +26.2%, Materials +17.1%, Industrials +10.2%, Utilities +9.7%, Financials +8.7%, Health Care +7.6%, Information Technology +4.2%, Consumer Staples +3.9%, Consumer Discretionary unchanged, Telecom –12.5%. The energy and materials sectors performed extremely well due to the sharp rise in oil prices, metal prices, and commodity prices in general. The Industrials sector came in third as the world business cycle picked up. Information technology had another poor year as earnings growth decelerated to more normal levels. Emerging markets – Emerging stock markets did very well again in 2005 as the bull market encouraged investors to reach for riskier and potentially more rewarding stocks. The stronger world economy put the emerging countries on
262
a more solid footing, particularly emerging countries that export oil or commodities, or that produce cheap-labor products that are becoming more attractive in the global marketplace as trade barriers fall. The MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index, which tracks companies based in 26 emerging countries, rallied +30.3% in 2005, beating the MSCI World Index gain of +10.0% by a hefty 20.3 percentage points. G7 – All of the G7 stock markets saw double-digit gains except for the US, which saw negligible gains. Of the G7 countries, the ranked stock market gains are as follows: Japan Nikkei 225 +40.2%, German DAX index +27.1%, France CAC40 +23.4%, Canada Toronto Composite +21.9%, UK FTSE 100 +16.7%, Italy MIB +15.5%, and US S&P 500 +3.0%. North America – In North America, Mexico’s stock market beat both the US and Canadian stock markets for the second straight year. The Mexican Bolsa index closed 2005 up +37.8%, beating the S&P 500 gain in the US of +3.0% and the Toronto Exchange Composite index gain of +21.9%. Latin America –Latin America stock markets generally closed sharply higher in 2005, except for Venezuela which closed sharply lower: Columbia’s General Index +118.9%, Peru’s Lima General Index +29.4%, Costa Rica’s Stock Market Index +28.4%, Brazil’s Bovespa Index +27.7%, Ecuador’s Guayaqui Bolsa Index +25.9%, Argentina’s Merval Index +12.2%, Chile’s Stock Market Select Index +9.4%, Venezuela’s Stock Market Index –31.9%. Europe – European stocks in 2005 put in the strongest year of performance since the stock market bubble burst in 2000. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 index closed +20.7% in 2005 after gains of +4.3% in 2004 and +10.5% in 2003. European stocks were helped by the European Central Bank’s accommodative monetary policy and the improving Eurozone economy. The five big European powers all saw double-digit gains: Germany +27.1%, France +23.4%, Spain +18.2%, UK +16.7%, and Italy +15.5%. Asia – Asia saw strong stock market gains in 2005 for the third consecutive year, as Asia continued to be boosted by torrid economic demand from China. The Morgan Stanley Far East Index showed a sharp gain of +24.2%, adding to the 16.7% gain seen in 2004 and the +36.3% gain seen in 2003. Japan’s Nikkei index soared by +40.2% in 2005, improving after the lackluster gain of +7.6% seen in 2004. South Korea’s stock market put in a stellar year with a +54.0% gain. A long list of Asian stock markets posted double-digit gains in 2005: Pakistan’s 100 Index +53.7%, India’s Mumbai Sensex 30 index +42.3%, Australia’s AllOrdinaries index +16.2%, Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index +16.2%, Philippines’ Composite index +15.0%, Singapore’s Straights Times index +13.6%, and New Zealand’s Exchange 50 index +10.0%. Asian countries showing single-digit gains in 2005 included: Thailand’s Stock Exchange index +6.8%, Taiwan’s TAIEX index of +6.7%, and Hong Kong Hang Seng +4.5%. There were declines in Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur Composite index –0.8%, and China’s Shanghai Composite index -8.3%. China’s stock market continued to be hurt by structural problems in the stock market and overhang from government stock ownership.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, WORLDWIDE Comparison of International Stock Price Indexes Year
Jan.
United States 1999 384.6 2000 419.2 2001 410.6 2002 339.7 2003 257.2 2004 340.0 2005 1 355.1 Canada 1999 196.7 2000 247.9 2001 272.5 2002 223.6 2003 192.0 2004 249.1 2005 1 269.0 France 1999 233.9 2000 311.4 2001 330.0 2002 245.5 2003 161.6 2004 200.2 215.3 2005 1 Germany 1999 305.1 2000 404.2 2001 401.8 2002 302.0 2003 162.5 2004 240.0 2005 1 251.6 I taly 1999 231.7 2000 276.8 2001 303.3 2002 223.6 2003 162.6 2004 201.3 2005 1 234.9 Japan 1999 50.3 2000 67.8 2001 48.0 2002 34.7 2003 28.9 2004 37.4 2005 1 39.5 United Kingdom 1999 249.0 2000 274.9 2001 279.9 2002 230.6 2003 159.1 2004 202.0 2005 1 225.5 1
Preliminary.
(1990 = 100)
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
372.2 410.7 372.7 332.7 252.8 344.2 361.8
386.7 450.5 348.8 344.9 255.0 338.5 354.9
401.3 436.6 375.6 323.7 275.6 332.8 347.7
391.3 427.0 377.5 320.8 289.6 336.9 358.2
412.6 437.2 368.0 297.5 292.9 342.9 358.1
399.4 430.1 364.1 274.0 297.7 331.2 371.0
396.9 456.2 340.7 275.4 303.0 331.9 366.8
385.6 431.8 312.9 245.1 299.4 335.0 369.4
409.7 429.7 318.6 266.2 315.8 339.7 362.8
417.5 395.3 342.5 281.4 318.1 352.8 375.6
441.6 396.9 345.1 264.5 334.2 364.3 375.2
400.0 426.8 356.4 297.2 290.9 340.9 363.1
184.5 266.8 236.1 223.2 191.6 256.9 282.6
192.9 276.6 222.4 229.5 185.4 251.0 281.0
205.0 273.2 232.3 224.0 192.5 241.0 273.9
200.0 270.4 238.6 223.8 200.5 246.0 280.8
204.9 298.0 226.1 208.9 204.1 249.8 289.5
207.0 304.2 224.8 193.1 212.2 247.2 304.7
203.8 328.8 216.3 193.3 219.5 244.9 311.9
203.4 303.3 199.9 180.7 216.9 253.4 321.9
212.1 281.8 201.3 182.7 227.2 259.3 303.5
219.9 257.8 217.1 192.1 229.7 264.0 316.4
245.9 261.1 224.7 193.3 240.3 270.3 329.5
206.3 280.8 226.0 205.7 209.3 252.7 297.1
225.2 340.6 295.3 245.6 151.5 205.0 221.6
231.0 345.9 285.0 257.9 144.1 199.5 223.8
242.4 353.2 310.3 245.5 162.5 202.2 215.2
239.4 353.6 300.1 235.2 164.6 201.9 226.7
249.6 354.7 287.5 214.5 169.7 205.4 232.7
241.1 360.0 279.8 187.9 176.6 200.7 244.9
252.5 364.5 258.0 185.2 182.2 197.8 242.1
252.6 344.8 224.4 152.8 172.5 200.3 253.1
269.0 352.0 238.9 173.3 185.6 204.0 244.1
293.9 326.2 246.3 183.0 188.4 206.5 251.3
327.8 326.1 254.5 168.6 195.8 210.2 259.4
254.9 344.4 275.8 207.9 171.3 202.8 235.9
290.4 452.0 367.1 297.9 150.6 237.6 257.2
288.8 449.3 344.7 319.1 143.3 228.0 257.1
318.9 438.4 370.4 298.1 173.9 235.6 247.4
299.8 420.4 362.0 284.9 176.4 231.9 263.7
318.0 407.9 358.2 259.1 190.4 239.6 271.2
301.6 425.1 346.5 218.8 206.2 230.3 288.9
311.6 426.7 306.8 219.5 206.0 223.8 285.6
304.5 401.9 254.7 163.7 192.6 230.2 298.2
326.7 418.5 269.6 186.4 216.2 234.1 291.4
348.6 376.8 295.0 196.3 221.5 243.9 307.1
411.4 380.4 305.1 171.0 234.4 251.6 319.8
318.8 416.8 331.8 243.1 189.5 235.6 278.3
234.1 330.7 276.4 220.8 166.3 203.3 237.8
245.4 308.7 267.4 233.9 157.2 199.4 241.0
245.9 303.1 278.1 227.6 173.3 204.9 230.5
237.1 307.1 266.1 214.5 180.5 200.5 237.0
237.5 309.0 254.1 196.7 181.1 206.5 241.1
221.5 308.5 249.1 182.7 181.6 202.1 251.9
230.4 320.5 237.9 183.2 184.4 199.1 249.5
231.0 307.2 197.7 157.1 181.5 206.4 261.7
226.5 318.8 208.7 170.0 189.0 212.2 242.9
241.3 316.3 220.9 185.9 196.3 218.6 252.5
282.8 298.3 223.1 170.0 195.6 229.6 261.4
238.8 308.8 248.6 197.2 179.1 207.0 245.2
49.8 69.2 44.7 36.7 29.0 38.3 40.7
54.9 70.6 45.1 38.2 27.7 40.6 40.5
57.9 62.4 48.3 39.9 27.2 40.8 38.2
55.9 56.7 46.0 40.8 29.2 39.0 39.1
60.8 60.4 45.0 36.8 31.5 41.1 40.2
62.0 54.6 41.1 34.3 33.2 39.3 41.3
60.5 58.5 37.2 33.4 35.9 38.4 43.1
61.1 54.6 33.9 32.6 35.5 37.5 47.1
62.2 50.4 36.0 30.0 35.5 37.4 47.2
64.4 50.8 37.1 32.0 35.0 37.8 51.6
65.7 47.8 36.6 29.8 37.0 39.9 55.9
58.8 58.7 41.6 34.9 32.1 39.0 43.7
261.0 276.2 264.9 227.9 162.5 207.2 230.5
267.4 287.3 250.5 236.2 160.3 202.9 227.0
279.8 277.3 265.0 232.1 174.7 206.7 221.4
266.9 278.7 259.7 228.7 181.9 203.4 229.4
272.2 279.9 252.0 209.1 182.1 205.9 236.5
270.2 282.9 246.1 189.4 189.0 202.5 244.3
271.5 296.3 239.3 189.0 190.7 204.5 245.6
261.1 279.8 216.2 166.4 187.3 209.8 253.6
268.3 284.4 222.9 179.1 196.3 212.2 246.1
285.2 272.1 232.2 185.0 198.3 216.6 253.2
299.5 275.6 233.1 174.9 203.9 222.7 263.0
271.0 280.5 246.8 204.0 182.2 208.0 239.7
Not Seasonally Adjusted.
Source: Economic and Statistics Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (ESA)
263
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, WORLDWIDE
264
STOCK INDEX FUTURES, WORLDWIDE
265
Sugar The white crystalline substance called “sugar” is the organic chemical compound sucrose, one of several related compounds all known as sugars. These include glucose, dextrose, fructose, and lactose. All sugars are members of the larger group of compounds called carbohydrates and are characterized by a sweet taste. Sucrose is considered a double sugar because it is composed of one molecule of glucose and one molecule of fructose. While sucrose is common in many plants, it occurs in the highest concentration in sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) and sugar beets (Beta vulgaris). Sugarcane is about 7 to 18 percent sugar by weight while sugar beets are 8 to 22 percent. Sugarcane is a member of the grass family and is a perennial. Sugarcane is cultivated in tropical and subtropical regions around the world roughly between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. It grows best in hot, wet climates where there is heavy rainfall followed by a dry season. The largest cane producers are Florida, Louisiana, Texas, and Hawaii. On a commercial basis, sugarcane is not grown from seeds but from cuttings or pieces of the stalk. Sugar beets, which are produced in temperate or colder climates, are annuals grown from seeds. Sugar beets do best with moderate temperatures and evenly distributed rainfall. The beets are planted in the spring and harvested in the fall. The sugar is contained in the root of the beet, but the sugars from beets and cane are identical. Sugar beet production takes place mostly in Europe, the US, China, and Japan. The largest sugar beet producing states are Minnesota, Idaho, North Dakota, and Michigan. Sugar beets are refined to yield white sugar and very little raw sugar is produced. Sugar beets and sugarcane are produced in over 100 countries around the world. Of all the sugar produced, about 25 percent is processed from sugar beets and the remaining 75% is from sugar cane. The trend has been that production of sugar from cane is increasing relative to that produced from beets. The significance of this in that sugarcane is a perennial plant while the sugar beet is an annual, and due to the longer production cycle, sugarcane production and the sugar processed from that cane, may not be quite as responsive to changes in price. Sugar futures are traded on the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F), Kansai Commodities Exchange (KANEX), the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE), the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), and the CSCE Division of the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). Options are traded on the BM&F, the TGE, the LIFFE and the NYBOT. Raw sugar is traded on the CSCE Division of the New York Board of Trade while white sugar is traded on the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE). The most actively traded contract is the No. 11 (World) sugar contract at the CSCE. The No. 11 contract calls for the delivery of 112,000 pounds (50 long tons) of raw cane centrifugal sugar from any of 28 foreign countries of origin and the United States. The CSCE also trades the No. 14 sugar contract (Domestic), which calls for the delivery of raw centrifugal cane sugar in the United States. Futures on white sugar are traded on the London International Financial Futures Exchange and call for the delivery of 50 metric tons of white
266
beet sugar, cane crystal sugar, or refined sugar of any origin from the crop current at the time of delivery. Prices – World sugar prices on the CSCE No.11 sugar nearest-futures chart in 2005 extended the rally that started in 2004 and closed 2005 up +62% yr/yr at $14.68 cents per pound. World sugar prices rallied further to 18.61 cents in January 2006, posting a new 24-year high on the nearestfutures chart. Bullish fundamentals for sugar in 2005 included strong world demand, tight US supply due to cane crop destruction by Hurricane Wilma, strong sugar cane demand for ethanol production in Brazil, Brazil’s smallerthan-expected sugar crop due to dryness in northeastern Brazil, and planned cuts in European sugar farmer subsidies and production to assuage world trade complaints. Due to the combination of strong demand and reduced supply, the sugar market experienced another production deficit in 2005-06. Recent production deficits have caused ending stocks to steadily fall from the peak seen in 2002-03 and the USDA is expecting ending stocks in 2005-06 to drop another –10% yr/yr to 31.5 million metric tons, which would be the smallest ending stock level since 1998-99. The stocks-toconsumption ratio is at the tightest level in a decade. Strong demand, combined with limited supply, caused sugar prices to soar in 2005. Supply – World production of centrifugal (raw) sugar in the 2005-06 marketing year (Oct 1 to Sep 30) rose +2.4% to 144.151 million metric tons. That followed two consecutive years of production declines (-1.1% in 2004-05 and -4.2% in 2003-04) from the record high of 148.656 million metric tons posted in 2002-03. The world’s largest sugar producers are Brazil with 20% of world production in 2005-06, the European Union with 14%, and India with 10%. US centrifugal sugar production in 2005-06 fell –3.6% to 7.593 million metric tons. World ending stocks in 2005-06 fell sharply by –10.3% to 31.506 million metric tons, adding to the declines of –9.7% seen in 2004-05 and –4.9% in 2003-04. The stocks/ consumption ratio fell to 22.1% in 2005-06, the tightest level since 1994-95. US production in 2005-06 of cane sugar fell – 3.3% to 3.158 million short tons, and beet sugar production fell –3.8% yr/yr to 4.435 million short tons. Demand – World domestic consumption of centrifugal (raw) sugar in 2005-06 rose by +1.2% yr/yr to 142.781 million metric tons. US domestic disappearance (consumption) of sugar in 2004-05 rose by +1.4% yr/yr to 9.815 million short tons. The latest available figures show US per capita sugar consumption at 61.9 pounds per year in 2004-05, which is only about two-thirds of the levels seen in the early 1970s. Exports – World exports of centrifugal sugar in 200506 rose +0.3% yr/yr to 45.727 million metric tons, which was just below the record high of 45.828 million metric tons posted in 2003-04. The world’s largest sugar exporter is Brazil, where exports in 2005-06 rose +19% to 18.100 million metric tons and accounted for 40% of world exports. The next largest exporters are Thailand with 11% of world exports, the European Union with 10%, and Australia with 9%. US sugar imports in 2005-06 rose +32.2% yr/yr to a 9year high of 2.770 million short tons. US sugar exports in 2005-06 fell –32.4% yr/yr to a 3-year low of 175,000 short tons.
SUGAR World Production, Supply & Stocks/Consumption Ratio of Sugar Marketing Year
Beginning Stocks
Production
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
26,569 29,398 28,263 33,342 37,292 39,578 36,608 40,923 38,826 35,141
122,496 125,405 130,919 136,321 130,528 134,270 148,656 142,400 140,811 144,151
1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
Imports
Total Supply
32,803 33,588 36,192 36,217 39,565 39,123 40,311 40,105 42,869 42,706
184,990 188,391 195,374 205,880 207,385 212,971 225,575 223,428 222,506 221,998
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
Australia
Brazil
China
5,049 5,659 5,567 4,997 5,448 4,162 4,662 5,461 5,178 5,388
13,700 14,650 15,700 18,300 20,100 17,100 20,400 23,810 26,400 28,175
6,686 7,789 8,631 8,969 7,525 6,849 8,305 11,380 10,734 9,826
2
Estimate.
Exports
Domestic Consumption
Ending Stocks
Stocks/ Consumption Percentage
35,925 37,446 37,420 41,629 38,064 41,917 46,345 45,862 46,317 47,720
119,667 122,682 124,612 126,959 129,743 134,446 138,307 138,641 141,048 142,773
26,276 28,263 33,342 37,292 39,578 36,608 40,923 38,925 35,141 31,505
22.0 23.0 26.8 29.4 30.5 27.2 29.6 28.1 24.9 22.1
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Production of Sugar (Centrifugal Sugar-Raw Value) Year
In 1000's of Metric Tons (Raw Value)
European Cuba Union
4,400 4,200 3,200 3,760 4,060 3,500 3,600 2,250 2,450 1,300
17,234 18,221 19,305 17,818 19,498 18,519 16,153 18,675 17,132 21,825
In Thousands of Metric Tons
India
Indonesia
Mexico
Pakistan
Thailand
United States
Ukraine
World Total
18,225 14,616 14,592 17,436 20,219 20,480 20,475 22,140 15,150 14,210
2,090 2,094 2,190 1,492 1,690 1,800 1,725 1,755 1,730 2,050
4,642 4,818 5,486 4,982 4,979 5,220 5,169 5,229 5,330 6,149
2,643 2,560 3,805 3,791 2,595 2,648 3,453 3,944 4,047 2,937
6,223 6,013 4,245 5,386 5,721 5,107 6,397 7,286 7,010 5,187
6,686 6,536 7,276 7,597 8,203 7,956 7,167 7,644 7,847 7,146
3,800 2,935 2,032 2,000 1,720 1,687 1,790 1,550 1,580 1,900
122,496 125,405 130,919 136,321 130,528 134,270 148,656 142,400 140,811 144,151
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Stocks of Centrifugal Sugar at Beginning of Marketing Year In Thousands of Metric Tons (Raw Value) Year
Australia
Brazil
China
Cuba
European Union
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
152 101 228 253 183 518 634 507 662 543
710 510 860 560 1,010 710 860 210 270 1,030
3,215 2,684 2,784 2,515 2,548 1,851 1,004 869 2,021 2,323
647 567 484 568 488 438 302 282 182 132
1,794 2,006 2,535 3,001 3,107 3,730 3,420 2,717 3,581 4,699
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Iran
Mexico
Philippines
Russia
United States
World Total
270 425 485 365 405 207 207 157 392 422
1,587 1,403 1,055 991 941 1,063 1,548 1,172 1,194 1,237
100 511 345 183 454 330 322 239 277 405
875 1,035 705 1,105 2,650 3,000 3,100 2,130 1,050 440
1,126 1,354 1,350 1,523 1,487 2,013 1,978 1,386 1,515 1,721
26,569 29,398 28,263 33,342 37,292 39,578 36,608 40,923 38,826 35,141
India Indonesia
5,990 8,455 6,979 5,850 7,374 10,710 11,985 11,670 12,430 9,070
365 474 559 520 908 1,330 1,415 1,385 1,340 1,170
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Centrifugal Sugar (Raw Value) Imported into Selected Countries Year
Algeria
Canada
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063
920 925 925 940 900 975 1,020 1,410 1,350 1,350
1,156 1,062 1,056 1,129 1,207 1,211 1,235 1,378 1,364 1,345
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
European China Union
1,775 1,014 420 543 687 1,083 1,375 842 1,235 1,250
1,813 1,808 1,829 1,867 1,786 1,839 2,025 2,150 1,900 2,257
Iran
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
919 1,091 921 1,702 1,949 1,591 1,600 1,600 1,500 1,450
1,065 1,230 970 1,085 960 1,000 1,000 950 600 600
1,673 1,608 1,592 1,542 1,650 1,486 1,407 1,483 1,364 1,431
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Malaysia
Morocco
Nigeria
Russia
United States
World Total
1,411 1,497 1,424 1,403 1,514 1,574 1,590 1,590 1,682 1,660
1,120 1,166 1,065 1,188 1,256 1,325 1,385 1,406 1,484 1,520
542 555 660 700 825 714 775 1,000 1,150 1,200
3,200 3,600 4,210 5,400 5,170 5,650 4,850 4,000 3,670 4,300
2,536 2,517 1,962 1,655 1,484 1,443 1,393 1,569 1,591 1,870
32,803 33,588 36,192 36,217 39,565 39,123 40,311 40,105 42,869 42,706
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
267
SUGAR
-----
---
Cents Per Pound "Fair Refining", Duty Paid, New York (1846 - 1888) Raw (96%), Duty Paid, New York (1889 - 1900) Spot Raw (cif) New York (Jan. 1901 - Jan. 1961) No. 8 World Raw, New York (Feb. 1961 - Dec. 1970) No. 11 World Raw, New York (Jan. 1971 - date) Refined Beet, Midwest (Jan. 1975 - date)
Centrifugal Sugar (Raw Value) Exported From Selected Countries Australia
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
3,985 4,374 4,374 3,896 4,028 2,966 3,499 3,975 4,017 4,248
Preliminary.
2
Brazil Colombia
2,600 1,300 4,500 5,900 7,400 6,100 8,400 9,990 10,820 13,570
Estimate.
434 434 661 569 601 680 651 663 620 640
Dominican European Cuba Republic Union
3,830 3,598 2,426 3,120 3,400 2,980 3,000 1,800 1,900 700
323 362 268 189 183 183 183 183 183 183
4,631 5,228 6,361 5,329 6,138 6,607 4,793 5,600 4,900 5,382
India
Mauritius
South Africa
Swaziland
Thailand
Total
923 1,075 1,361 1,086 1,140 1,190 1,310 1,335 1,335 1,386
940 422 21 10 25 1,360 1,130 1,410 250 50
560 645 560 649 426 544 526 567 590 540
399 1,056 1,160 1,355 1,410 1,580 1,235 1,296 1,070 1,020
307 293 267 283 284 287 208 278 285 298
4,537 4,194 2,839 3,352 4,147 3,394 4,157 5,280 4,860 3,620
35,925 37,446 37,420 41,629 38,064 41,917 46,345 45,862 46,317 47,720
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Average Wholesale Price of Refined Beet Sugar1--Midw est Market Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
28.69 29.00 25.50 27.20 23.38 23.13 26.75 27.80 23.70 23.50
29.00 29.00 25.50 27.13 22.25 22.75 26.00 26.50 23.50 23.50
29.50 28.13 25.50 27.00 21.50 22.00 25.95 27.13 23.50 23.25
29.50 28.00 25.50 27.00 21.00 20.50 24.63 27.63 23.50 23.80
29.70 28.00 26.00 27.00 19.75 21.38 24.50 28.00 23.50 24.75
29.50 27.50 26.00 27.00 19.00 21.90 24.00 28.00 23.50 25.88
29.50 27.00 26.00 27.00 19.00 22.50 24.00 27.63 23.50 26.00
29.00 26.65 26.00 27.00 19.00 22.50 25.40 25.50 23.50 26.75
29.00 26.38 26.50 27.00 20.70 24.63 26.25 24.00 23.50 40.10
29.00 24.90 26.90 26.00 21.25 25.75 26.75 24.70 23.50 40.00
29.00 25.00 27.00 26.00 21.00 26.20 27.40 23.94 23.38 40.00
29.00 25.50 27.00 25.20 21.80 26.50 27.88 23.63 23.20 36.90
29.20 27.09 26.12 26.71 20.80 23.31 25.79 26.21 23.48 29.54
These are f.o.b. basis prices in bulk, not delivered prices.
268
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Guatemala
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS)
SUGAR Average Price of World Raw Sugar1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
12.57 11.13 11.71 8.40 5.64 10.63 7.96 8.56 6.42 10.33
12.97 11.06 11.06 7.05 5.51 10.26 6.81 9.14 7.01 10.51
13.07 11.17 10.66 6.11 5.54 9.64 7.27 8.50 8.23 10.57
12.43 11.50 10.27 5.44 6.48 9.27 7.12 7.92 8.21 10.19
11.94 11.54 10.17 5.83 7.33 9.96 7.33 7.41 8.08 10.23
12.54 12.02 9.33 6.67 8.72 9.80 7.07 6.85 8.41 10.45
12.83 12.13 9.70 6.11 10.18 9.48 8.02 7.18 9.19 10.89
12.33 12.54 9.50 6.39 11.14 8.77 7.86 7.30 8.99 11.09
11.87 12.65 8.21 6.98 10.35 8.60 8.54 6.70 9.10 11.59
11.65 12.86 8.24 6.90 10.96 7.15 8.84 6.74 9.84 12.40
11.29 13.19 8.73 6.54 10.02 7.80 8.87 6.83 9.65 12.86
11.38 12.90 8.59 6.00 10.23 8.02 8.81 6.95 10.19 15.09
12.24 12.06 9.68 6.54 8.51 9.12 7.88 7.51 8.61 11.35
1 Contract No. 11, f.o.b. stowed Caribbean port, including Brazil, bulk spot price. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service,
Average Price of Raw Sugar in New York (C.I.F., Duty/Free Paid, Contract #12/#14) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
22.39 21.88 21.85 22.41 17.70 20.81 21.03 21.62 20.54 20.57
22.68 22.07 21.79 22.38 17.24 21.18 20.69 21.91 20.57 20.36
22.57 21.81 21.74 22.55 18.46 21.40 19.92 22.14 20.86 20.54
22.71 21.79 22.14 22.57 19.43 21.51 19.73 21.87 20.88 21.21
22.62 21.70 22.31 22.65 19.12 21.19 19.52 21.80 20.69 21.96
22.48 21.62 22.42 22.61 19.31 21.04 19.93 21.62 20.03 21.89
21.80 22.04 22.66 22.61 17.64 20.64 20.86 21.32 20.14 21.94
22.51 22.21 22.19 21.24 18.12 21.10 20.91 21.26 20.10 20.49
22.38 22.30 21.92 20.10 18.97 20.87 21.65 21.34 20.47 21.10
22.37 22.27 21.67 19.50 21.15 20.90 21.94 20.92 20.31 21.71
22.12 21.90 21.83 17.45 21.39 21.19 22.22 20.91 20.40 21.83
22.14 21.93 22.19 17.87 20.56 21.43 22.03 20.37 20.55 21.74
22.40 21.96 22.06 21.16 19.09 21.11 20.87 21.42 20.46 21.28
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Supply and Utiliz ation of Sugar (Cane and Beet) in the United States
In 1,000's of Short Tons (Raw Value)
----------------------------------------- Utiliz ation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply ------------------------------------------------------ Offshore Receipts -------------- Production ----------Cane
B eet
Total
Foreign
Territories
Total
Beginning Stocks
Total Supply
3,632 3,945 4,076 4,089 3,985 3,964 3,957 3,266 3,108
4,389 4,421 4,974 4,680 3,915 4,462 4,692 4,611 4,428
8,021 8,366 9,050 8,769 7,900 8,426 8,649 7,877 7,536
2,163 1,823 1,636 1,590 1,535 1,730 1,750 2,096 2,770
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2,163 1,823 1,636 1,590 1,535 1,730 1,750 2,096 2,770
1,488 1,679 1,639 2,216 2,180 1,528 1,670 1,897 1,349
11,672 11,868 12,325 12,575 11,615 11,684 12,073 11,870 11,975
Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
4
I ncludes feed use.
- Domestic Disappearance Net P er Changes Refining In PolyTotal hydric Capita in Invisible Loss AdUse Exports Total Pounds Stocks justment Alcohol4
9,992 10,238 10,090 10,396 10,087 10,014 10,176 10,521 10,465
179 230 124 141 137 142 288 259 175
-1 -67 -126 113 -24 161 23 48 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 24 32 33 33 24 41 48 40
9,672 9,873 9,993 10,000 9,785 9,504 9,678 10,019 10,150
64.9 64.9 66.3 65.5 64.5 63.3 61.0 61.9 NA
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Sugar Cane for Sugar & Seed and Production of Cane Sugar and Molasses in the United States
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052 1
Acreage Harvested 1,000 Acres
914.0 947.1 993.3 1,023.3 1,027.8 1,023.2 992.3 938.2 922.9
Preliminary.
2
Yield of ------------ Production -----------Sugar Cane Per for for Yield Per Harvested Sugar S eed Total Acre Acre Net Tons ------------ 1,000 Tons ------------ Short Tons
34.7 36.6 35.5 35.0 33.7 34.7 34.1 30.9 29.6
Estimate.
30,003 32,743 33,577 34,291 32,775 33,903 31,942 27,243 25,444 3
1,706 1,964 1,722 1,823 1,812 1,650 1,916 1,770 1,839
31,709 34,707 35,299 36,114 34,587 35,553 33,858 29,013 27,283
Excludes edible molasses.
----------------------------
Farm Price $ P er Ton
28.1 27.3 25.6 26.1 29.0 28.4 29.5 28.3
------ Farm Value ------ ----- Sugar Production ------of Cane ---- Raw Value ---Used for of Cane Refined --- Molasses Made --Sugar Used for Total Per Ton B a si s Edible Total3 & S eed Sugar 1,000 of Cane 1,000 ----- 1,000 Dollars ----Tons in Lbs. Tons ---- 1,000 Gallons ----
842,840 890,257 893,049 944,562 859,175 901,900 895,917 941,791 951,813 1,003,046 961,896 1,007,142 943,646 998,269 771,734 821,118
----------------------------
----------------------------
----------------------------
----------------------------
----------------------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
269
SUGAR U.S. Sugar Beets, Beet Sugar, Pulp & Molasses Produced from Beets and Raw Sugar Spot Prices ------- Acreage --------
Year of Harvest
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
Yield Per Harvested Planted Harvested Acre ----- 1,000 Acres ----Ton
1,368 1,459 1,498 1,561 1,564 1,371 1,427 1,365 1,346 1,295
1,323 1,428 1,451 1,527 1,373 1,243 1,361 1,348 1,307 1,239
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 1.07. 5 F.O.B. Europe.
20.2 20.9 22.4 21.9 23.7 20.7 20.4 22.7 22.9 22.3
Production 1,000 Tons
Sugar Yield Per Acre Sh. Tons
Price3 Dollars
26,680 29,886 32,499 33,420 32,541 25,764 27,707 30,583 29,956 27,654
3.06 3.00 ----------------------
45.40 38.80 36.40 37.20 34.20 39.80 39.60 41.40 36.90
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
Quota Allocation
2,339.1 1,791.3 1,289.7 ----------------------
1,211,001 1,160,029 1,181,494 1,242,895 1,113,030 1,025,306 1,097,329 1,270,026 1,106,878
3,900 -------------------------
2,276.9 1,733.3 1,254.2 ----------------------
Bakery & Cereal Products Beverages
1,993 2,161 2,301 2,312 2,264 2,273 2,069 2,108 2,180 2,353
5,539 5,553 5,349 5,419 5,508 5,172 5,407 5,232 4,989 5,110
3,923 3,997 4,313 4,536 4,433 4,680 4,291 4,219 4,668 4,710
33 27 24 41 36 58 109 60 64 201
14 ---------------------------4
9,496 9,578 9,686 9,996 9,977 9,911 9,808 9,511 9,722 10,021
Refined.
196 158 165 179 168 158 189 214 242 239
Hotels, Restaurant Ice Cream & Dairy Confec& Institionery2 tutions Products
9,619 9,755 9,854 10,167 10,091 10,075 9,994 9,713 9,901 10,183
1,335 1,350 1,336 1,361 1,328 1,316 1,221 1,130 1,125 1,153
80 78 79 72 71 59 53 52 76 110
195 196 212 255 208 262 288 298 326 368
0 0 0 0 0 767 634 246 0 28
22.40 21.96 22.06 21.16 19.09 21.11 20.87 21.42 20.46 21.28
334 323 322 332 356 274 351 299 286 245
14.46 10.70 10.58 11.71 11.32 11.90 13.05 13.24 13.20 13.58
Wholesale Grocers4
Non-food Uses
Nonindustrial Uses
318 308 331 346 330 310 297 303 315 344
849 793 907 862 817 800 727 632 697 609
1,263 1,281 1,230 1,263 1,242 1,255 1,322 2,387 2,398 2,411
2,241 2,283 2,223 2,257 2,241 2,250 2,374 1,279 1,267 1,270
66 66 76 71 85 74 99 99 91 132
3,759 3,828 3,761 3,804 3,893 3,927 4,122 4,039 3,956 4,046
Jobbers, sugar dealers.
Year
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2,121 2,105 2,191 2,143 2,233 2,208
2,265 2,311 2,355 2,401 2,428 2,553
2,532 2,542 2,519 2,591 2,565 2,655
2,260 2,379 2,430 2,443 2,458 2,580
8,646 8,801 8,964 9,100 9,213 9,996 2
Preliminary.
Industrial Total Uses Deliveries
5,202 5,272 5,556 5,630 5,491 5,414 5,132 5,034 5,254 5,419
8,962 9,100 9,317 9,434 9,383 9,341 9,253 9,073 9,210 9,466
Source: Economic Research Service,
Deliveries1 of All Sugar by Primary Distributors in the U.S., by Quarters First Quarter
2,909 3,195 3,377 3,421 3,855 4,337 4,525 3,432 4,088 4,029
In Thousands of Short Tons Retail Grocers3
4
996 1,156 1,308 1,335 1,737 1,533 1,781 1,289 1,659 1,635
Source: Economic Research Service,
All Other F ood Uses
445 436 438 499 499 484 530 548 603 590
Raw Value. 1 I ncludes for domestic consumption and for export. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1,383 1,520 1,535 1,499 1,554 1,500 1,472 1,300 1,817 1,753
Canned, Bottled & Frozen F oods
1 Preliminary. 2 And related products. 3 Chain stores, supermarkets. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
270
12.24 12.06 9.68 6.54 8.51 9.12 7.88 7.51 8.61 11.35
In Thousands of Short Tons (Raw Value)
Sugar, Refined--Deliveries to End User in the United States
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
16.64 14.33 11.59 9.10 9.97 11.29 10.35 9.74 10.87 13.19
----------- Deliveries by Primary Distributors ----------Importers ------------------------------ Stocks , Jan. 1 -----------------------------of Direct Mainland Total Cane ConB eet Cane Mainland Domestic Cane B eet Sugar Sugar sumption Sugar Cane Con- Sugar ReSugar Refiners' Actual Total Mills3 Deliveries sumption Sugar Mills Total fineries4 Factories CCC Raw Imports Refineries Factories
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Sugar for direct consumption only. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Year
----------------------------
-------- Raw Sugar Prices -------- Wholesale World5 ----- CSCE ----- List Price #11 N.Y. Duty Refined HFCS World P ai d #5 (42%) ------- In Cents Per Pound ------ Midwest
3 I ncludes support payments, but excludes Government sugar beet payments. 4 Refined sugar multiplied by factor of Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Sugar Deliveries and Stocks in the United States
Year
- Sugar Production EquivRefined Farm alent Raw Value4 B a si s Value $1,000 -- 1,000 Short Tons --
In Thousands of Short Tons
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052
2,318 2,370 2,227 2,183 2,286 2,335
2,484 2,486 2,439 2,360 2,368 2,471
2,611 2,580 2,645 2,464 2,520 2,666
2,564 2,474 2,497 2,504 2,547 2,549
9,977 9,911 9,808 9,511 9,722 10,021
Source: Economic Research Service,
SUGAR
Average Open Interest of World Sugar No. 11 Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
156,047 155,156 206,100 165,717 191,464 157,478 184,096 244,036 246,347 375,713
159,563 147,198 212,072 176,465 199,031 158,192 205,138 265,758 269,863 391,006
150,093 143,623 183,472 168,624 193,554 158,448 194,541 220,971 268,250 357,056
142,773 166,143 182,770 188,324 187,810 167,555 187,415 192,497 275,423 352,521
137,897 150,480 171,555 196,864 201,756 131,640 157,738 170,867 267,362 355,922
148,447 175,139 186,978 177,266 200,973 126,426 158,276 184,257 282,842 366,568
144,527 165,884 149,536 142,416 172,361 112,483 149,202 180,898 300,961 404,141
153,845 197,331 152,754 151,621 171,808 128,181 170,667 196,857 309,436 473,757
153,202 187,477 155,076 189,606 160,809 139,915 202,144 195,200 292,917 468,737
144,830 158,065 138,762 161,760 154,101 146,058 207,456 185,917 322,079 464,829
150,866 200,486 139,896 167,549 148,035 163,358 207,598 200,605 304,462 478,097
150,573 201,922 148,983 175,125 145,760 170,710 217,904 207,995 332,803 523,820
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of World Sugar No. 11 Futures in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
550,780 544,514 341,940 526,255 436,935 493,199 268,343 618,176 601,378 688,036 431,818 551,628 683,891 543,477 452,485 688,181 422,527 609,793 501,115 617,633 410,492 545,538 380,640 567,921 568,789 629,533 417,314 693,589 566,040 797,616 443,842 729,453 513,562 1,018,664 1,181,124 993,743 981,457 1,279,305 957,116 1,258,629
May
June
384,302 496,745 308,563 575,264 364,203 686,997 361,895 762,271 523,939 717,700 426,987 515,561 412,150 610,338 489,195 719,819 617,324 1,100,639 657,601 1,366,754
July
In Contracts Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
279,707 290,732 562,082 400,150 427,082 580,551 294,354 370,179 527,270 346,534 408,289 657,572 376,769 420,611 622,350 356,483 419,123 447,349 529,509 381,027 756,038 535,892 545,886 760,213 614,596 679,522 1,248,663 779,245 1,198,290 1,803,508
264,290 440,208 303,951 344,434 507,562 348,896 402,811 475,322 626,476 915,772
203,921 323,286 358,096 405,495 371,824 413,965 432,100 403,091 539,501 816,569
D e c.
Total
306,584 4,751,852 413,214 5,284,971 346,201 5,524,111 256,775 5,911,299 242,027 5,933,850 317,374 5,150,329 340,558 6,173,756 674,355 7,140,724 632,736 9,766,550 992,826 13,007,072
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
271
Sulfur +5.2% yr/yr in 2004 to 10.100 million metric tons, continuing to recover from the 3-decade low of 9.270 million metric tons seen in 2002. Demand – US consumption of sulfur in all forms rose by +7.6% in 2004 to 12.800 million metric tons, continuing to recover from the 17-year low of 10.900 million metric tons seen in 2001. US consumption of elemental sulfur rose by +3.7% in 2004 to 11.300 million metric tons. US consumption of sulfuric acid fell –8.0% yr/yr in 2004 to 9.290 million metric tons. Trade – US exports of recovered sulfur in 2004 rose +13.0 yr/yr to 949,000 metric tons, recovering further from the 10-year low of 675,000 metric tons seen in 2001. US imports of recovered sulfur in 2004 fell by –0.7% yr/yr to 2.850 million metric tons, down from last year’s record high of 2.870 million metric tons.
Sulfur (symbol S) is an odorless, tasteless, light yellow, nonmetallic element. As early as 2000 BC, Egyptians used sulfur compounds to bleach fabric. The Chinese used sulfur as an essential component when they developed gunpowder in the 13th century. Sulfur is widely found in both its free and combined states. Free sulfur is found mixed with gypsum and pumice stone in volcanic regions. Sulfur dioxide is an air pollutant released from the combustion of fossil fuels. The most important use of sulfur is the production of sulfur compounds. Sulfur is used in skin ointments, matches, dyes, gunpowder, and phosphoric acid. Supply – World production of sulfur (all forms) in 2004 rose +3.6% yr/yr to 64.100 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest producers of sulfur are the US with 16% of world production, Canada (14%), Russia (11%), and China (10%). US production of sulfur rose by
World Production of Sulfur (All Forms)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Canada
China
France
Germany
Iraq
Ja p a n
Mexico
Poland
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Spain
United States
World Total
9,480 9,694 9,815 9,452 8,916 8,374 8,505 8,892
7,670 6,170 5,770 5,560 5,380 5,730 6,090 6,630
1,060 1,110 1,100 1,150 1,100 1,020 1,010 961
1,160 1,180 2,358 2,401 2,494 2,499 2,362 2,150
450 450 -------------------
3,391 3,428 3,462 3,456 3,743 3,191 3,232 3,150
1,340 1,387 1,334 1,325 1,450 1,465 1,591 1,825
1,985 1,675 1,524 1,831 1,352 1,220 1,210 1,180
3,750 4,651 5,265 5,790 6,130 6,500 6,720 6,920
1,750 2,050 1,940 2,101 2,350 2,360 2,180 2,230
967 993 955 708 668 685 706 634
12,000 11,700 11,500 10,500 9,470 9,270 9,600 10,100
56,900 57,400 58,500 59,300 59,500 60,600 61,900 64,100
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Sulfur in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Sulfur Content)
--------------------------------------- Production of ------------------------------------------------------------ Elemental Sulfur ----------------Native ----- Recovered ----Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1 6
- Sulfur3 - Petroleum Frasch & C o ke
2,820 1,800 1,780 900 -------------
5,230 6,060 6,210 6,360 6,480 6,750 6,970 7,390
Natural Gas
Total
2,420 2,160 2,010 2,020 2,000 1,760 1,950 1,990
7,650 8,220 8,220 8,380 8,490 8,500 8,920 9,380
Other BySulfuric product Sulfuric Acid Compounds A ci d
1,550 1,610 1,320 1,030 982 772 683 739
-------------------------
Production (All Forms)
Imports Sulfuric A ci d 4
12,000 11,700 11,500 10,500 9,470 9,270 9,600 10,100
2,010 2,040 1,370 1,420 1,410 1,060 908 2,400
Exports Producer Sulfuric Stocks A ci d 4 D e c. 3 1 5
118 155 155 191 210 147 205 204
761 283 451 208 232 181 206 185
Apparent Con- Sales Value of Shipments sumption --------- F.O.B. Mine/Plant --------Frasch Recovered Average (All Forms) --------- $ Per Metric Ton ---------
13,900 14,200 13,800 12,700 10,900 11,400 11,900 12,800
4 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Or sulfur ore; Withheld included in natural gas. Basis 100% H2SO4, sulfur equivalent. Data 1996 to date includes Frasch. W = Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Sulfur Consumption & Foreign Trade of the United States
W W W ---------------5
W W W ----------------
36.06 29.14 37.81 24.73 10.01 11.84 28.71 32.50
Frasch & recovered.
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Sulfur Content)
---------- Consumption ---------- ---------- Sulfuric Acid Sold or Used, by End Use ----------- ----------------------------- Foreign Trade -----------------------------Total Pulpmills Inorganic Synthetic Petro- ------------- Exports ------------- ------------- Imports ------------Total PhoReNative Chem- Rubber sphatic leum Sulfur covered Elemental Sulfuric & Paper ReValue ReValue icals3 & Plastic Fertilizers Refining4 Frasch covered Acid Product Form Sulfur Frasch 1,000 $ Frasch covered 1,000 $ 2
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 1 4
W W W W W W W W
11,800 11,900 11,700 11,100 9,520 10,400 10,900 11,300
11,800 11,900 11,700 11,100 9,520 10,400 10,900 11,300
10,700 10,600 10,400 9,620 9,530 8,380 10,100 9,290
334 134 138 136 194 122 225 272
232 174 174 152 158 27 71 154
85 69 68 68 68 66 82 70
7,000 7,590 7,770 7,110 6,840 6,660 6,660 3,870
610 632 508 497 591 90 140 248
-------------------------
703 889 685 762 675 687 840 949
36,000 35,400 35,800 53,700 48,800 40,000 54,400 63,300
-------------------------
2,060 2,270 2,580 2,330 1,730 2,560 2,870 2,850
64,900 58,400 51,600 39,400 22,100 26,800 70,600 76,800
Preliminary. 2 Sulfur equivalent. 3 I ncluding inorganic pigments, paints & allied products, and other inorganic chemicals & products. I ncluding other petroleum and coal products. W = Withheld proprietary data. NA = Not available. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
272
Sunflowerseed, Meal and Oil Sunflowers are native to South and North America, but are now grown almost worldwide. Sunflower-seed oil accounts for approximately 14% of the world production of seed oils. Sunflower varieties that are commercially grown contain from 39% to 49% oil in the seed. Sunflower crops produce about 50 bushels of seed per acre on average, which yields approximately 50 gallons of oil.
04 marketing year (latest data available) rose +10.8% yr/yr to 26.320 million metric tons, which was only mildly below the record high of 27.405 million metric tons posted in 199899. The world’s largest sunflower-seed producers are the former USSR with 38% of world production, Argentina with 12%, China with 7%, and France with 6%. The US accounted for 4.6% of world production in 2003-04.
Sunflower-seed oil accounts for around 80% of the value of the sunflower crop. Refined sunflower-seed oil is edible and used primarily as a salad and cooking oil and in margarine. Crude sunflower-seed oil is used industrially for making soaps, candles, varnishes, and detergents. Sunflowerseed oil contains 93% of the energy of US No. 2 diesel fuel and is being explored as a potential alternate fuel source in diesel engines. Sunflower meal is used in livestock feed and when fed to poultry, increases the yield of eggs. Sunflower seeds are also used for birdfeed and as a snack for humans.
US production of sunflower seeds in 2004-05 fell by – 23.2% yr/yr to 929,000 metric tons, which was far below the record production level of 3.309 million metric tons posted in 1979-80. US farmers harvested 2.581 million acres of sunflowers in 2005-06. That was up sharply by +50.8% yr/ yr and was a 6-year high.
Prices – The average monthly price received by US farmers for sunflower seeds in the first four months of the 2005-06 marketing year (i.e., September through December 2005) was $12.40 per hundred pounds. That was down – 13.2% from the record high of $14.29 seen in the 2004-05 marketing year. Supply – World sunflower-seed production in the 2003-
World Production of Sunflow erseed
Demand – Total US disappearance of sunflower seeds in 2004-05 fell -16.6% yr/yr to 1.113 million metric tons, of which 47% went to non-oil and seed use, 41% to crushing for oil and meal, and 12% to exports. Trade – World sunflower-seed exports in 2003-04 rose +26.7% yr/yr to a 5-year high of 3.235 million metric tons. The world’s largest exporters are the former USSR which accounted for 43% of world exports in 2003-04 and Hungary which accounted for 15% of world exports. US exports of 116,000 metric tons accounted for only 3.6% of world exports in 2003-04.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Crop Year
Argentina
Bulgaria
China
France
Hungary
India
Romania
South Africa
Spain
Turkey
United States
ExUSSR
World Total
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052
5,600 5,450 5,630 7,180 5,760 2,970 3,730 3,340 2,980 3,500
650 527 438 524 606 425 405 645 713 750
1,270 1,333 1,176 1,465 1,765 1,954 1,478 1,946 1,820 1,750
1,900 1,996 1,995 1,713 1,868 1,833 1,584 1,497 1,530 1,440
730 905 540 718 793 484 632 777 992 1,221
1,400 1,250 890 944 694 646 726 1,060 1,160 1,300
933 1,096 869 1,073 1,301 721 824 1,003 1,506 1,240
755 560 585 1,109 531 638 929 643 648 665
575 1,178 1,373 1,097 579 848 871 757 763 785
750 670 672 850 820 630 530 830 560 640
1,819 1,614 1,668 2,392 1,969 1,608 1,551 1,112 1,209 929
7,368 5,316 5,442 5,762 7,396 7,824 5,467 7,846 10,203 8,582
25,720 24,410 23,452 27,405 26,718 23,201 21,309 23,957 26,886 25,566
1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
World Imports and Exports of Sunflow erseed Crop Year
1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------------------------Imports ------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------Exports ------------------------------------------------NetherWorld ArgenExUnited World France Germany lands Spain Turkey Total tina France Hungary USSR States Uraguay Total
Preliminary.
300 338 208 395 128 174 45 74 305 51 2
366 406 278 364 124 193 73 79 89 51
Forecast.
617 496 439 477 576 413 189 210 215 121
681 296 312 576 443 368 200 232 244 144
500 532 554 766 486 322 164 287 630 310
3,972 3,343 3,049 4,015 2,772 2,462 1,312 1,885 2,761 1,324
550 65 504 940 265 94 342 232 45 80
480 78 64 29 27 11 24 3 25 17
249 212 104 152 23 6 16 20 15 44
1,750 2,422 1,744 1,977 1,295 1,865 186 577 1,374 68
224 117 265 291 168 153 176 122 136 117
---91 60 106 28 21 130 223 127 143
3,647 3,310 3,049 4,080 2,620 2,462 1,309 1,940 2,736 1,318
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
273
SUNFLOWERSEED, MEAL AND OIL Sunflow erseed Statistics in the United States Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
Harvested Acres 1,000
Harvested Yield Per Cwt.
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
3,492 3,441 2,647 2,555 2,167 2,197 1,711 2,610
15.10 12.62 13.39 13.38 11.31 12.13 11.98 15.40
1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
Farm Price $ P er Metric Ton
In Thousands of Metric Tons
--------------------- Disappearance --------------------Value Non-oil of Pro- ---------------------------- Supply --------------------------duction Stocks, ProUse & Million $ Sept. 1 duction Imports Total Crush Exports S eed Total
233 166 151 212 266 266 280-302
559.0 326.9 244.2 326.0 294.6 316.2 272.7 472.5
92 231 231 156 109 199 163 90
2,392 1,969 1,608 1,551 1,112 1,209 930 1,823
2,166 2,356 2,143 1,463 1,308 1,368 1,201 1,414
Preliminary.
2
543 591 614 645 471 487 565 464
Forecast.
617 612 527 503 444 454 459 440
544 628 520 400 299 404 510 387
1,258 1,469 2,220 2,383 2,083 2,929 3,412 3,196
Crop Year Beginning Oct. 1
Preliminary.
8,440 9,303 9,544 8,693 7,436 8,708 9,637 9,077
2,300 2,426 2,111 1,441 1,268 1,342 1,177 1,391
697 759 749 797 604 599 734 566
717 711 613 585 516 527 534 512
2
2
Minneapolis, Crude $ Per Metric Ton
------------------------- Disappearance ------------------------Imports
Total
Exports
Domestic
Total
27 55 71 62 10 12 18 10
534 474 396 305 138 270 120 347
2 2 4 16 28 11 35 14
563 531 471 383 176 293 173 371
363 286 247 205 51 107 57 132
145 174 162 168 113 168 106 202
563 531 471 383 176 293 173 371
443 368 350 513 730 737 860-904
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Stocks, Oct. 1
Production
Imports
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
617 549 458 358 172 308 136 394
---------26 63 20 -------
Forecast.
10,056 11,011 10,970 10,012 8,584 9,858 11,035 10,394
In Thousands of Metric Tons
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Total
Exports
Domestic
Total
622 554 463 389 240 333 141 399
41 21 8 26 3 12 3 18
576 528 450 358 232 316 133 376
622 554 463 389 240 333 141 399
28% Protein $ P er Metric Ton
71 83 100 96 116 122 105-117
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Sunflow er2 in the United States
Preliminary.
1,306 1,479 2,205 2,320 2,104 2,852 3,402 3,315
------------------------- Disappearance -------------------------
Preliminary.
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
507 624 555 464 364 173 305 180
Production
Forecast.
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
Year
607 701 583 449 336 454 572 435
------------------------------------------ Supply ------------------------------------------
Crop Year Beginning Oct. 1
274
2,287 2,010 1,749 1,674 1,120 1,335 1,047 1,741
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Stocks, Oct. 1
Sunflow er Meal Statistics in the United States
1
849 666 625 679 635 538 631 747
----------------------------------------- Supply ------------------------------------------
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
1
260 205 201 235 166 170 140 196
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Sunflow er Oil Statistics in the United States
1
1,178 1,139 923 760 319 627 276 798
----------------------------------- Sunflow erseed Oil ------------------------------ ---------------------------------------- Sunflow erseed Meal ---------------------------------------ArgenExWorld ArgenUnited ExWorld tina France Spain Turkey USSR Total tina France Spain Turkey States USSR Total
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 1
2,518 2,241 1,905 1,783 1,319 1,498 1,137 1,990
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
World Production of Sunflow erseed Oil and Meal Year
34 41 66 76 98 90 44 77
In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
6.31 8.64 13.10 10.40 12.90 13.20
5.76 8.19 12.00 11.40 12.40 12.80
6.20 9.10 12.00 11.50 12.80 12.30
6.49 9.71 12.30 11.70 13.40 11.60
6.92 9.52 12.10 12.10 13.70 11.20
7.29 10.00 12.50 12.80 15.00 11.10
7.46 10.20 12.50 13.10 15.60
7.67 10.50 12.30 13.50 15.20
7.99 10.50 12.20 13.70 15.50
8.40 11.80 12.00 13.50 15.60
8.71 13.80 11.60 13.30 15.10
9.48 12.90 10.90 13.60 14.20
7.39 10.41 12.13 12.55 14.28 12.03
2
KS, MN, ND and SD average.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Tall Oil Tall oil is a product of the paper and pulping industry. Crude tall oil is the major byproduct of the kraft or sulfate processing of pinewood. Crude tall oil starts as tall oil soap which is separated from recovered black liquor in the kraft pulping process. The tall oil soap is acidified to yield crude tall oil. The resulting tall oil is then fractionated to produce fatty acids, rosin, and pitch. Crude tall oil contains 40-50 percent fatty acids such as oleic and linoleic acids; 5-10 percent sterols, alcohols, and other neutral components. The
demand is for the tall oil rosin and fatty acids which are used to produce adhesives, coatings, and ink resins. The products find use in lubricants, soaps, linoleum, flotation and waterproofing agents, paints, varnishes, and drying oils. Since tall oil and its production are derived from the paper and pulping industry, the amount of tall oil produced is related in part to the pulp industry and in part to the U.S. economy.
Consumption of Tall Oil in Inedible Products in the United States Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
111.5 86.7 99.4 91.7 97.7 93.4 136.1 126.8 134.9
89.0 114.4 115.1 88.1 96.4 132.9 119.9 109.4 115.4
91.0 113.2 111.0 106.4 104.4 115.0 136.9 136.1 124.5
99.5 120.0 114.0 97.5 101.6 121.3 126.3 123.7 97.3
97.0 108.0 99.9 90.9 105.1 109.3 121.7 135.7 144.4
105.8 101.8 109.2 98.8 100.7 121.6 121.9 160.5 128.3
103.7 117.2 119.1 91.8 99.9 128.5 119.3 166.9 125.0
94.4 114.8 113.0 106.6 98.3 130.2 111.6 140.8 127.5
84.7 120.3 103.9 94.9 102.4 121.5 131.4 125.3 115.6
87.2 111.6 108.4 93.7 81.4 141.9 124.1 124.6 137.0
87.3 119.0 106.4 89.4 87.7 115.5 104.9 129.4 120.3
88.4 121.0 102.2 96.2 74.4 118.6 120.1 110.7 118.1
1,139 1,348 1,302 1,146 1,150 1,450 1,474 1,590 1,488
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Production of Crude Tall Oil in the United States Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
122.7 118.4 93.8 92.3 99.1 102.5 102.1 88.1 95.5
115.4 113.4 101.6 91.6 100.7 87.3 87.9 93.7 92.1
135.4 119.3 107.8 81.4 86.5 101.8 109.0 99.6 100.3
137.7 118.0 101.3 94.9 101.8 108.7 113.7 110.0
126.6 115.2 104.6 83.7 93.7 89.8 96.1 97.9
127.5 134.6 115.2 103.7 105.5 111.5 112.1 109.4
132.3 121.0 95.4 99.7 104.2 108.3 102.8 107.3
131.2 103.8 91.8 99.9 96.0 99.6 106.8 109.8
131.1 100.7 99.5 95.1 88.5 91.8 99.2 101.5
132.0 103.2 94.5 94.1 94.7 109.2 94.4 101.0
120.2 103.5 97.0 105.4 103.6 100.8 108.9 101.0
121.1 113.6 86.5 93.0 91.4 97.1 104.1 98.9
1,540.6 1,364.8 1,202.6 1,134.8 1,165.6 1,208.6 1,236.9 1,218.1 1,152.0
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Stocks of Crude Tall Oil in the United States, on First of Month Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 Preliminary.
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
208.6 268.7 146.8 110.5 132.7 160.2 210.7 174.1 107.5
187.9 219.8 130.9 102.4 125.6 154.1 207.3 140.3 97.3
209.7 200.3 135.3 105.4 142.1 155.7 203.0 124.4 83.4
202.1 197.5 121.5 117.0 127.9 160.5 210.2 95.0 86.0
202.8 164.8 131.8 118.9 135.8 176.0 209.6 109.9
219.4 156.9 153.5 118.2 155.2 167.4 216.3 108.8
256.8 163.3 136.6 134.4 165.6 156.3 205.3 134.0
254.1 177.5 138.5 139.6 177.4 173.4 207.1 132.1
239.1 183.0 154.6 171.7 190.7 163.7 194.1 130.5
259.1 180.7 130.5 132.0 175.4 180.3 190.5 126.3
278.4 183.6 136.7 160.5 161.8 199.3 196.1 122.0
245.2 152.7 117.1 145.4 155.1 209.5 162.2 121.8
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Stocks of Refined Tall Oil in the United States, on First of Month
1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
32.3 15.1 7.5 9.6 22.4 13.3 13.1 14.8 18.7
25.6 14.9 7.0 9.0 17.2 16.5 20.1 16.6 28.1
34.9 17.0 8.5 9.9 17.1 18.7 19.6 16.9 26.9
21.4 12.5 9.1 10.2 19.9 20.1 19.9 17.0 W
30.4 14.8 9.8 10.7 20.7 20.1 19.2 15.2
17.0 9.9 11.0 12.5 20.9 18.6 13.7 20.4
14.2 7.2 9.8 11.8 21.5 20.4 14.3 16.0
13.0 7.6 13.7 13.9 22.7 19.7 12.7 18.2
13.1 7.2 10.4 12.6 20.9 15.8 16.3 16.9
15.1 7.3 7.8 19.5 18.6 14.5 14.2 17.2
14.7 6.3 11.9 13.4 18.4 13.5 16.6 14.5
15.3 7.0 8.2 21.6 16.0 13.9 17.7 17.5
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
275
Tallow and Greases Tallow and grease are derived from processing (rendering) the fat of cattle. Tallow is used to produce both edible and inedible products. Edible tallow products include margarine, cooking oil, and baking products. Inedible tallow products include soap, candles, and lubricants. Production of tallow and greases is directly related to the number of cattle produced. Those countries that are the leading cattle producers are also the largest producers of tallow. The American Fats and Oils Association provides specifications for a variety of different types of tallow and grease, including edible tallow, lard (edible), top white tallow, all beef packer tallow, extra fancy tallow, fancy tallow, bleachable fancy tallow, prime tallow, choice white grease, and yellow grease. The specifications include such characteristics as the melting point, color, density, moisture content, insoluble impurities, and others. Prices– The monthly average price of tallow (inedible, No. 1 Packers-Prime, delivered Chicago) in 2005 fell –2.8% yr/yr to 17.46 cents per pound. That was mildly below the record high of 21.60 cents posted in 1979. The wholesale price of edible tallow in 2005 fell –4.1% yr/yr to 18.99 cents per pound from 19.81 cents in 2004, and remained well below the record high of 30.3 cents per pound posted in 1981. Supply – World production of tallow and greases (edible and inedible) in 2004, the latest available reporting
year, rose by +1.0% yr/yr to 8.108 million metric tons, but was still down slightly from the record high of 8.202 million metric tons posted in 2000. The world’s largest producer of tallow and greases by far is the US with 45% of world production, followed by Australia with 6%, Brazil with 6%, and Canada with 4%. U.S. production of edible tallow in 2004 fell –6.4% yr/yr to 1.842 billion pounds, down from the 2002 record high of 1.974. US production of inedible tallow and greases in 2004 rose by +0.9% yr/yr to 6.228 billion pounds, which was well below the record high of 7.156 billion pounds posted in 2002. Demand – US consumption of inedible tallow and greases in 2004 fell –2.0% yr/yr to 2.484 billion pounds, of which virtually all went to animal feed. US consumption of edible tallow in 2004 rose +2.5% yr/yr to a record high of 1.591 billion pounds. US per capita consumption of edible tallow rose +5.3% to 4.0 pounds per person per year in 2004 which matched the record high first posted in 2000. Trade – US exports of inedible tallow and grease in 2005 fell –14.8% yr/yr to 286 million pounds, and accounted for 4.4% of total US supply. US exports of edible tallow in 2004 fell -39.3% yr/yr to 255 million pounds, and accounted for 13.7% of US supply.
World Production of Tallow and Greases (Edible and Inedible) Year
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
147 142 159 146 160 161 144 149 154 173
410 438 461 462 471 503 507 469 456 488
301 314 368 379 394 430 446 463 474 492
218 228 244 256 285 293 296 307 291 336
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
France
Germany
Rep. of Korea
Netherlands
New Zealand
Russia
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
161 165 165 160 160 151 140 154 164 166
134 139 136 135 140 132 126 124 121 125
13 14 17 19 18 17 15 14 15 14
158 161 191 203 178 171 151 143 141 133
164 162 187 154 167 170 173 162 174 192
253 232 215 202 186 178 172 179 185 178
197 163 166 173 158 148 115 123 120 123
3,757 3,581 3,510 3,679 3,979 3,948 3,503 3,826 3,724 3,636
7,507 7,417 7,591 7,806 8,171 8,202 7,694 8,073 8,029 8,108
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Tallow and Greases (Inedible) in the United States
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 20052
------------------------- Supply ------------------------ProStocks, duction Jan. 1 Total
6,242 6,249 6,644 7,079 7,035 6,870 7,156 6,246 6,173 6,209
373 266 339 437 405 347 327 240 282 281
6,615 6,515 6,983 7,516 7,440 7,217 7,482 6,486 6,455 6,490
In Millions of Pounds
--------------------- Consumption ---------------------Exports
S oap
F eed
Total
1,807 775 1,041 877 791 616 384 307 336 296
245 245 228 229 146 107 W W W W
2,389 2,401 2,533 2,847 2,727 2,834 2,886 2,434 2,536 2,455
2,634 2,646 2,761 3,076 2,849 2,843 2,886 2,434 2,536 2,455
Wholesale --------- Prices, Cents/Lb. -------Inedible, Edible, No. 1 (Loose) Chicago Chicago
22.0 23.5 19.1 15.1 11.7 13.7 14.8 20.3 19.8 19.0
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. Sources: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA); Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
276
20.1 20.8 17.5 13.0 10.0 12.0 13.5 18.3 18.0 17.5
TALLOW AND GREASES
-----
Cents Per Pound Inedible Prime, Chicago (Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1948) Bleachable, Chicago (Jan. 1949 - date)
Supply and Disappearance of Edible Tallow in the United States
Year
-------------------------- Supply -------------------------Stocks Jan. 1 Production Total
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
36 43 33 47 39 33 37 40 25 25
1,536 1,520 1,416 1,537 1,729 1,825 1,792 1,974 1,967 1,842
In Millions of Pounds, Rendered Basis
--------------------------------------------------------- Disappearance -----------------------------------------------------------P er Baking Diret Capita or Frying Domestic Exports Total Use (Lbs.) Fats
1,590 1,568 1,455 1,586 1,775 1,866 1,859 2,023 1,997 1,868
1,268 1,317 1,223 1,301 1,425 1,581 1,455 1,487 1,552 1,591
279 218 185 246 317 248 364 511 420 255
1,548 1,535 1,408 1,547 1,742 1,829 1,819 1,998 1,972 1,846
533 602 585 868 998 1,125 869 974 1,109 1,188
374 320 312 259 262 283 W W W W
2.0 2.2 2.1 3.1 3.6 4.0 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.0
1 Preliminary. 2 Forecast. Sources: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA); Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Wholesale Price of Tallow, Inedible, No. 1 Packers (Prime), Delivered, Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
19.45 23.40 18.20 16.30 11.89 12.17 10.00 17.13 23.23 16.20
17.00 22.88 16.88 12.53 10.14 9.46 10.54 15.65 16.72 16.03
17.03 19.35 17.58 11.18 10.67 9.62 12.64 16.60 17.80 18.73
17.54 17.39 17.70 11.38 10.21 10.26 11.06 16.54 21.05 20.95
19.37 18.09 20.35 10.40 11.60 10.19 11.59 16.48 18.01 19.38
19.50 19.64 19.63 11.49 10.74 12.35 15.47 17.30 18.08 18.23
20.98 19.65 17.31 11.50 9.19 15.44 14.80 16.08 19.55 15.11
22.40 20.10 17.57 11.69 9.48 16.83 14.00 15.85 16.92 15.31
25.98 20.88 16.69 14.38 10.07 13.75 14.23 18.70 17.20 17.54
21.05 22.13 16.98 16.37 10.05 11.24 13.98 22.78 14.33 17.40
19.65 22.88 16.90 14.95 9.35 10.60 15.91 23.37 15.61 17.96
21.63 22.60 16.70 13.88 11.23 12.34 18.08 23.08 16.97 16.67
20.13 20.75 17.71 13.00 10.39 12.02 13.53 18.30 17.96 17.46
Preliminary.
Sources: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
277
Tea Tea is the common name for a family of mostly woody flowering plants. The tea family contains about 600 species placed in 28 genera and they are distributed throughout the tropical and subtropical areas, with most species occurring in eastern Asia and South America. The tea plant is native to Southeast Asia. There are more than 3,000 varieties of tea, each with its own distinct character, and each is generally named for the area in which it is grown. Tea may have been consumed in China as long ago as 2700 BC and certainly since 1000 BC. In 2737 BC, the Chinese Emperor Shen Nung, according to Chinese mythology, was a scholar and herbalist. While his servant boiled drinking water, a leaf from the wild tea tree he was sitting under dropped into the water and Shen Nung decided to try the brew. Today, half the world’s population drinks tea. Tea is the world’s most popular beverage next to water. Tea is a healthful drink and contains antioxidants, fluoride, niacin, folic acid, and as much vitamin C as a lemon. The average 5 oz. cup of brewed tea contains approximately 40 to 60 milligrams of caffeine (compared to 80 to 115 mg in brewed coffee). Decaffeinated tea has been available since the 1980s. Herbal tea contains no true tea leaves but is actually brewed from a collection of herbs and spices. Tea grows mainly between the tropic of Cancer and the tropic of Capricorn, requiring 40 to 50 inches of rain per year and a temperature ideally between 50 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit. In order to rejuvenate the bush and keep it at a convenient height for the pickers to access, the bushes must be pruned every four to five years. A tea bush can produce
World Tea Production, in Major Producing Countries Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
Argentina
Bangladesh
China
47.0 54.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 63.0 63.0
48.0 53.0 51.0 56.0 46.0 52.0 52.0
617.0 637.0 688.0 697.0 704.0 722.0 760.0
tea for 50 to 70 years, but after 50 years, the yield is reduced. The two key factors in determining different varieties of tea are the production process (sorting, withering, rolling, fermentation, and drying methods) and the growing conditions (geographical region, growing altitude, and soil type). Black tea, often referred to as fully fermented tea, is produced by allowing picked tea leaves to wither and ferment for up to 24 hours. After fermenting, the leaves are fired, which stops oxidation. Green tea, or unfermented tea, is produced by immediately and completely drying the leaves and omitting the oxidization process, thus allowing the tea to remain green in color. Supply – World production of tea in 2002, the latest full reporting year for the series, rose +4.0% to 3.100 million metric tons, which was a record high. The world’s largest producers of tea in 2002 were India (with 25.0% of world production), China (25%), Sri Lanka (10%), Kenya (9%), Turkey (5%), and Indonesia (5%). Trade – US tea imports in 2005, through September annualized, rose +1.0% to 195,490 metric tons, which was a new record high. World tea imports in 2002 rose by +3.7% to 1.436 million metric tons. The world’s largest tea importers in 2003 were Russia (with 13% of total world imports), the United Kingdom (12%), Pakistan (8%), and the US (7%). The world’s largest exporters in 2003 were Kenya (with 21% of world exports), China (19%), India (13%), Sri Lanka (12%), Indonesia (6%), Vietnam (4%), and Argentina (4%).
In Thousands of Metric Tons
India
Indonesia
Iran
Ja p a n
Kenya
Malawi
Sri Lanka
Turkey
ExUSSR2
World Total
780.0 811.0 870.0 870.0 835.0 848.0 826.0
166.0 149.0 166.0 161.0 162.0 163.0 163.0
62.0 69.0 60.0 80.0 50.0 51.0 51.0
89.0 91.0 83.0 88.0 85.0 85.0 85.0
257.0 221.0 294.0 249.0 236.0 217.0 287.0
37.0 44.0 40.0 48.0 45.0 37.0 38.0
258.0 277.0 280.0 284.0 306.0 295.0 310.0
115.0 140.0 178.0 178.0 139.0 143.0 150.0
42.0 39.0 52.0 65.0 27.0 25.0 23.0
2,710 2,791 3,040 3,078 2,947 2,980 3,100
Preliminary. 2 Mostly Georgia and Azerbaijan. Sources: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
1
World Tea Exports from Producing Countries Argentina
Bangladesh
Brazil
China
56,806 58,987 52,144 50,000 58,110 57,643 59,062
21,740 25,049 21,494 11,000 6,400 3,964 7,348
3,404 3,208 2,914 3,714 4,082 3,979 4,209
205,381 219,325 202,681 230,696 252,204 254,875 262,663
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Year
1
Malawi
P. New Guinea
Sri Lanka
191,472 66,843 201,798 67,219 177,507 97,847 200,868 105,581 177,603 99,797 181,617 100,185 174,246 88,176
199,224 263,685 245,716 217,282 207,244 88,311 293,751
39,824 40,518 30,000 69,600 32,200 36,631 37,945
6,500 6,600 8,200 8,500 8,800 5,200 6,600
267,726 270,938 268,330 287,005 293,524 290,500 161,773
Vietnam Zimbabwe
32,901 33,000 37,300 55,600 67,900 77,000 59,800
13,057 11,076 15,722 16,916 6,162 18,855 13,355
World Total
1,315,534 1,415,223 1,372,179 1,489,215 1,446,657 1,375,260 1,383,544
In Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
10,831 14,596 14,785 15,051 15,089 16,713
13,475 11,917 14,237 13,519 14,716 14,001
18,217 15,237 16,029 15,651 18,355 17,876
15,929 16,772 17,326 17,810 19,279 20,500
19,861 15,802 18,747 18,863 18,813 16,698
18,367 16,426 15,158 15,089 18,782 18,431
14,396 16,041 15,189 15,290 16,511 15,714
13,008 14,415 11,977 13,778 14,116 13,728
10,725 11,917 9,777 11,240 14,530 12,958
10,873 14,072 14,384 16,417 13,851 14,561
11,662 14,548 12,148 11,439 14,876 11,313
10,611 11,150 12,073 13,054 14,698 11,749
167,952 172,893 171,829 177,201 193,615 184,241
Preliminary.
278
Kenya
India
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Imports of Tea in the United States 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Metric Tons Indonesia
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Tin Tin (symbol Sn) is a silvery-white, lustrous gray metallic element. Tin is soft, pliable and has a highly crystalline structure. When a tin bar is bent or broken, a crackling sound called a “tin cry” is produced due to the breaking of the tin crystals. People have been using tin for at least 5,500 years. Tin has been found in the tombs of ancient Egyptians. In ancient times, tin and lead were considered different forms of the same metal. Tin was exported to Europe in large quantities from Cornwall, England, during the Roman period, from approximately 2100 BC to 1500 BC. Cornwall was one of the world’s leading sources of tin for much of its known history and into the late 1800s. The principal ore of tin is the mineral cassiterite, which is found in Malaya, Bolivia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Nigeria. About 80% of the world’s tin deposits occur in unconsolidated placer deposits in riverbeds and valleys, or on the sea floor, with only about 20% occurring as primary hardrock lodes. Tin deposits are generally small and are almost always found closely allied to the granite from which it originates. Tin is also recovered as a by-product of mining tungsten, tantalum, and lead. After extraction, tin ore is ground and washed to remove impurities, roasted to oxidize the sulfides of iron and copper, washed a second time, and then reduced by carbon in a reverberatory furnace. Electrolysis may also be used to purify tin. Pure tin, rarely used by itself, was used as currency in the form of tin blocks and was considered legal tender for taxes in Phuket, Thailand, until 1932. Tin is used in the manufacture of coatings for steel containers used to preserve food and beverages. Tin is also used in solder alloys, electroplating, ceramics, and in plastic. The world’s major tin research and development laboratory, ITRI Ltd, is funded by companies that produce and consume tin. The focus of the research efforts have been on possible new uses for tin that would take advantage of tin’s relative non-toxicity to replace other metals in various products. Some of the replacements could be lead-free solders, antimony-free flameretardant chemicals, and lead-free shotgun pellets. No tin is currently mined in the U.S. Tin futures and options trade on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Tin has traded on the LME since 1877 and
the standard tin contract began in 1912. The futures contract calls for the delivery of 5 metric tons of tin ingots of at least 99.85% purity. The contract trades in terms of US dollars per metric ton. Prices – The average monthly price of tin (straights) in 2005 fell by –10.8% yr/yr to $4.80 per pound, down from last year’s 20-year high of $5.38 per pound. The 2005 price of $4.80 is almost 70% higher than the 3-decade low of $2.83 per pound seen as recently as 2002. The average monthly price of ex-dock tin in New York in 2005 fell by –12.0% yr/yr to $3.58 per pound, but that is still 80% higher than the 3decade low of $1.99 per pound posted in 2002. Supply – World mine production of tin in 2003 (latest data available) fell by 13.3% yr/yr to an 8-year low of 209,000. The world’s largest mine producers of tin are Indonesia with 34% of world production in 2003, China with 24%, and Peru with 19%. World smelter production of tin fell –0.4% in 2003 to 279,000 metric tons, which was mildly below the record high of 300,000 metric tons produced in 2001. The world’s largest producers of smelted tin are China with 36% of world production in 2003, Indonesia with 23%, and Malaysia with 7%. The US does not mine tin, and therefore supply consists only of scrap and imports. US tin recovery in 2004 fell –0.6% to 7,700 metric tons, which was a new record low. Demand – US consumption of tin (pig) in 2005 (through October) rose to an annualized 46,913 metric tons from the 8-year low of 45,840 metric tons posted in 2003. The breakdown of US consumption of tin by finished products in 2005 shows that the largest consuming industry of tin is solder (with 28% of consumption), followed by chemicals (23%), tin plate (21%), and bronze and brass (7%). Trade – The US relied on imports for 93% of its tin consumption in 2005. US imports of unwrought tin metal in 2004 rose +28.3% to 47,600 metric tons, up from last year’s 7-year low of 37,100 metric tons. The largest sources of US imports in 2003 were China (5,310 metric tons), Bolivia (with 5,060 metric tons of imports), Indonesia (4,660 metric tons), and Brazil (4,330 metric tons). US exports of tin in 2003 fell –1.1% yr/yr to 3,650 metric tons.
World Mine Production of Tin
In Metric Tons (Contained Tin)
Year
Australia
Bolivia
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Nigeria
Peru
Portugal
Russia
Thailand
United Kingdom
World Total
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
8,656 8,828 10,169 10,204 10,011 9,146 9,602 6,268 6,500
14,419 14,802 12,898 11,308 12,417 12,464 12,298 15,242 15,000 16,800
17,317 61,900 19,617 69,600 19,065 67,500 14,238 70,100 13,202 80,100 13,773 99,400 14,200 95,000 14,200 62,000 14,200 50,000 12,200 110,000
46,058 52,304 55,175 53,959 47,754 51,629 61,862 88,142 70,000 66,000
6,402 5,174 5,065 5,754 7,339 6,307 4,972 4,215 3,359 3,000
357 139 150 200 3,300 2,760 2,870 2,800 2,000
22,331 27,004 27,952 49,574 59,191 70,901 69,696 38,815 38,800 42,000
4,627 4,637 2,667 3,100 2,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 500
9,000 8,000 7,500 4,500 2,500 2,500 2,000 1,300 2,000 2,500
2,201 1,300 746 1,656 2,712 1,930 1,950 1,130 817 600
1,973 2,103 2,396 376 -------------------
201,000 220,000 217,000 231,000 246,000 277,000 281,000 241,000 209,000 264,000
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Brazil
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
279
TIN World Smelter Production of Primary Tin Year
Australia
Bolivia
Brazil
China
570 460 605 655 600 775 1,171 611 600 800
17,709 16,733 16,853 11,102 11,166 9,353 11,292 10,976 11,000 16,800
16,787 18,361 17,525 14,900 12,787 13,825 13,800 11,675 11,700 12,200
67,700 71,500 67,700 79,300 90,800 112,000 105,000 82,000 100,000 110,000
38,628 39,000 52,658 53,401 49,105 46,432 53,470 67,455 65,000 66,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 1
In Metric Tons
Indonesia
Preliminary.
Ja p a n
Malaysia
Mexico
Russia
South Africa
Spain
Thailand
630 524 507 500 568 593 668 659 662
39,433 38,051 34,822 27,201 28,913 26,228 30,417 30,887 18,000
770 1,234 1,188 1,078 1,262 1,204 1,789 1,756 1,800
9,500 9,000 6,700 3,000 4,500 4,800 4,569 4,615 5,500
----------------------------
500 150 150 100 50 -------------
8,243 10,981 11,986 15,353 17,306 17,076 22,387 17,548 12,000
World Total
223,000 211,000 241,000 247,000 267,000 288,000 300,000 280,000 279,000 264,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
United States Foreign Trade of Tin
In Metric Tons
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Imports for Consumption -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year
Exports (Metal)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 1
2,790 3,670 4,660 5,020 6,770 6,640 4,350 2,940 3,690 3,650
Preliminary.
2
------- Concentrates2 (Ore) ------- -------------------------------------------------------- Unw rought Tin Metal -------------------------------------------------------Total Total IndoSingaUnited All Ore Bolivia Peru All Metal Bolivia Brazil China nesia Malaysia pore Thailand Kingdom
--------57 -----------------------------
Tin content.
-----------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
33,200 30,200 40,600 44,000 47,500 44,900 37,500 42,200 37,100 47,600
6,630 6,290 6,680 5,160 3,850 6,330 6,040 6,150 5,720 5,060
8,070 9,460 8,610 4,710 4,700 5,860 5,510 4,840 3,000 4,330
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
--------600 540 20 ----------------500
97 243 20 790 60 514 118 2 143 97
In Metric Tons
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,862 4,953 4,410 4,660 4,362 4,252 3,965 3,814 3,851 4,097
3,938 4,025 4,493 4,667 4,466 4,185 3,866 3,808 3,632 3,990
3,940 4,023 4,445 4,790 4,430 4,095 3,868 3,851 3,887 4,027
3,878 4,067 4,508 4,790 4,377 4,141 3,819 3,891 3,837 3,874
3,894 3,999 4,388 4,760 4,466 4,148 4,087 3,701 3,874 3,825
3,976 4,079 4,483 4,700 4,470 4,128 3,887 3,814 4,001 3,918
3,926 3,936 4,273 4,254 4,398 4,055 3,887 3,841 3,844 3,806
3,996 3,912 4,300 4,396 4,476 4,163 3,842 3,850 3,871 3,900
3,687 4,050 4,404 4,340 4,397 4,153 3,835 3,803 3,850 3,824
3,779 4,098 4,402 4,316 4,460 4,197 3,966 3,816 3,870 3,833
3,908 3,964 4,348 4,275 4,244 4,129 3,822 3,764 3,947 3,849
3,730 4,250 4,268 4,227 4,157 3,974 3,811 3,887 3,772 3,877
48,800 44,350 52,720 55,100 47,040 49,620 46,655 45,840 46,236 46,820
Year
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
4,580 4,670 6,100 5,620 8,300 8,140 7,700 7,280 6,520 6,140
6,000 5,100 5,570 8,120 8,330 8,330 7,320 6,980 6,010 5,260
5,200 5,610 5,390 7,770 7,960 8,360 7,020 6,690 6,130 5,570
4,390 5,600 5,840 7,760 7,580 8,460 6,990 6,640 6,280 5,420
4,880 5,070 6,170 7,760 7,810 8,270 6,870 6,390 5,850 5,770
5,590 5,270 5,940 7,510 7,930 8,640 6,600 6,400 6,000 5,400
5,760 5,180 5,830 7,750 8,090 8,760 6,540 6,380 5,900 5,670
5,640 5,650 5,580 7,560 8,240 8,760 6,590 6,420 6,290 5,830
4,790 5,590 6,660 7,870 7,820 8,920 6,670 6,250 6,110 5,540
4,580 5,420 6,270 7,790 8,210 9,030 7,130 6,180 6,030 5,350
4,810 5,290 5,880 8,390 7,200 7,630 6,880 6,190 5,900 5,330
6,810 5,590 5,710 8,800 7,970 7,470 6,950 6,340 6,410 5,410
Preliminary.
280
40 120 120 822 60 20 145 -------------
F eb.
Tin Stocks (Pig-Industrial) in the United States, on First of Month
1
3,810 965 1,640 1,870 944 214 674 122 490 6,600
Jan.
Preliminary.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
7,230 7,550 7,610 7,880 7,930 5,320 3,880 3,340 3,070 4,660
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumption (Total) of Tin (Pig) in the United States Year
5,610 2,760 4,710 9,870 13,900 10,200 6,360 7,600 4,340 5,310
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
TIN
-----
Cents Per Pound Composite, New York (Jan. 1910 - date)
Average Price of Ex-Dock Tin in New York1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
299.55 281.91 249.39 244.46 283.63 249.32 189.23 212.68 305.34 376.37
297.45 281.34 252.65 251.04 271.70 246.91 183.23 217.98 313.55 393.05
296.68 281.51 262.36 255.13 263.42 243.14 187.65 219.58 357.66 408.41
308.49 274.36 271.65 256.97 259.59 238.33 195.36 217.90 418.57 395.40
306.71 274.23 279.50 269.42 259.70 238.53 201.95 225.40 449.29 394.68
296.20 267.31 284.27 253.64 260.16 231.14 208.01 223.69 438.72 367.81
298.47 261.03 268.87 251.09 257.77 210.17 211.51 225.81 439.24 347.78
291.30 259.85 270.98 251.32 255.92 188.42 188.36 229.58 437.68 347.96
292.13 262.56 260.79 256.38 262.54 179.53 193.79 233.59 438.91 331.01
285.11 266.77 259.17 260.70 254.56 181.38 206.67 248.22 436.80 313.73
285.87 268.33 261.82 278.24 253.64 194.77 205.94 252.93 439.24 300.96
280.61 262.61 251.75 274.51 252.19 195.90 206.63 285.40 414.16 323.43
294.88 270.15 264.43 258.73 261.24 216.46 199.15 232.73 407.43 358.38
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Average Price of Tin (Straights) in New York Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
418.68 396.18 356.97 348.77 400.90 356.37 271.59 304.44 422.33 500.93
415.65 395.50 359.76 356.50 384.13 352.87 263.91 312.32 433.50 519.61
414.71 395.64 370.96 361.11 372.50 348.19 270.54 314.52 485.99 539.30
429.34 386.52 381.99 363.01 368.42 341.59 280.98 312.26 557.29 522.71
427.24 386.58 392.16 372.62 370.13 340.61 288.74 321.92 575.39 522.18
413.65 377.83 397.36 359.05 370.81 329.68 296.02 319.67 570.99 492.64
416.63 369.97 377.72 359.96 366.49 302.57 299.39 322.10 565.68 467.71
409.12 369.01 380.02 357.35 364.65 276.55 269.30 327.16 568.14 466.67
407.79 372.45 368.89 366.06 375.25 263.17 277.60 332.21 572.72 444.80
400.25 377.39 366.87 370.68 363.54 264.88 293.79 350.90 573.79 426.36
400.65 378.00 370.49 392.04 362.94 281.23 292.40 356.46 577.07 411.23
394.46 371.35 357.69 288.77 360.68 279.46 292.95 396.46 550.97 440.30
412.35 381.37 373.41 357.99 371.70 311.43 283.10 330.87 537.82 479.54
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
281
TIN Tin Plate Production & Tin Recovered in the United States
In Metric Tons
------ Tin Content of Tinplate Produced ------------- Tinplate (All Forms) -------- --------------------------------- Tin Recovered from Scrap by Form of Recovery --------------------------------Tin Per Anti- Chemical Tonne Tin Tin Bronze Type Commonial of Plate Content Grand ---- Gross Weight ---- (Tonne) (Kilograms) Metal & Brass Solder Metal Babbitt pounds Misc.2 Lead Total
Tinplate Waste Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
205,000 181,100 157,000 W W 119,000 97,800 45,900 W W
1,660,000 1,551,000 2,010,000 1,700,000 1,750,000 1,320,000 2,000,000 2,450,000 2,500,000 2,550,000
9,600 9,617 9,300 8,900 9,080 8,800 7,800 7,750 7,750 7,700
5.8 6.2 4.6 5.2 5.2 6.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.0
W W W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
11,200 11,400 12,200 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
W W W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
39 37 W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes foil, terne metal, cable lead, and items indicated by symbol W. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumption of Primary and Secondary Tin in the United States
Year
Industry Stocks Jan. 12
83 84 83 85 85 85 86 88 79 91
9,540 8,480 9,300 9,180 9,280 9,290 8,910 8,830 8,500 7,940
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 0 0 31 1
Preliminary.
2
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
Primary
Secondary
Scrap
Total
Available Supply
Stocks Dec. 31 (Total Available Less Total Processed)
35,400 39,400 39,200 39,000 39,900 40,500 41,400 34,500 34,200 32,400
4,210 5,020 2,750 2,360 2,490 2,790 2,990 2,180 1,610 1,370
4,940 6,240 6,140 6,010 6,240 6,360 6,050 4,770 4,230 3,420
44,500 50,600 48,100 47,300 48,600 49,700 50,400 41,400 40,100 37,200
54,100 59,100 57,300 56,500 57,900 58,900 59,300 50,200 48,600 45,200
11,600 13,000 12,500 11,900 12,000 11,900 12,200 8,220 8,550 7,540
---------------------------- Net Receipts -----------------------------
I ncludes tin in transit in the U.S.
282
W W W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
11,600 11,600 12,300 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Total Processed
Consumed in Manufacturing Products
42,500 46,100 44,900 44,600 45,800 47,000 47,100 42,000 40,000 37,600
42,200 46,000 44,700 44,400 45,700 46,900 47,000 41,900 39,800 37,400
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Tinplate2
Solder
Babbitt
Bronze & Brass
Tinning
Chemicals3
9,480 9,670 9,340 9,350 8,900 9,150 8,800 7,800 7,750 7,790
15,100 17,700 15,600 15,900 16,900 18,700 18,800 17,000 13,800 10,600
831 871 851 909 1,020 1,610 1,660 770 1,310 2,570
3,080 2,830 2,760 3,160 3,610 3,410 3,360 3,430 3,040 2,600
1,230 1,110 2,050 1,210 1,100 905 1,200 1,070 679 833
5,740 7,060 7,520 8,170 8,180 8,220 8,040 7,590 8,400 8,720
In Metric Tons (Contained Tin)
Tin Bar Tin Powder & Anodes
625 W 573 W W W W W W W
1,190 1,200 1,150 684 704 721 714 570 617 849
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes small quantity of secondary pig tin and tin acquired in chemicals. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
W W W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
In Metric Tons
Consumption of Tin in the United States, by Finished Products Year
335 171 149 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
W = Withheld Proprietary data.
1
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Consumption
W 34 W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
3
------------ Total ------------
White Metal
Other
Total
Primary
Secondary
992 965 1,340 754 778 943 1,260 1,390 1,320 1,220
3,990 4,550 3,230 3,980 4,260 3,220 3,210 2,230 2,920 2,180
42,200 46,000 44,700 44,400 45,700 46,900 47,000 41,900 39,800 37,400
33,700 35,200 36,500 36,200 37,100 38,000 38,100 34,200 34,000 32,900
8,530 10,800 8,180 8,250 8,620 8,890 8,940 7,630 5,830 4,490
I ncluding tin oxide.
W = Withheld proprietary data.
Titanium Titanium (symbol Ti) is a silver-white, metallic element used primarily to make light, strong alloys. It ranks ninth in abundance among the elements in the crust of the earth but is never found in the pure state. It occurs as an oxide in various minerals. It was first discovered in 1791 by Rev. William Gregor and was first isolated as a basic element in 1910. Titanium was named after the mythological Greek god Titan for its strength. Titanium is extremely brittle when cold, but is malleable and ductile at a low red heat, and thus easily fabricated. Due to its strength, low weight, and resistance to corrosion, titanium is used in metallic alloys and as a substitute for aluminum. It is used extensively in the aerospace industry, in desalinization plants, construction, medical implants, paints, pigments, and lacquers. Prices – The price of the mineral ilmenite, a primary source of titanium, traded in the range of $72-90 per metric ton in 2004 versus $80-100 in 2003. The price of titanium metal sponge traded in the range of $3.55-6.44 per pound in 2004 versus $2.72-3.95 in 2003. The price of titanium dioxide pigments (Anatase) traded in the range of 90-95 cents per pound in 2004 versus 85-95 cents per pound in 2003. Supply – World production of titanium ilmenite con-
centrates in 2004 fell –0.9% to 5.640 million metric tons, down from last year’s record high. The world’s largest producers of titanium ilmenite concentrates are Australia with 35% of world production in 2004, China with 15%, Norway with 15%, India with 9%, and the Ukraine with 7%. World production of titanium rutile concentrates in 2004 fell –2.2% yr/yr to 353,000 metric tons, which was well below the record high of 545,000 metric tons seen in 1994. The world’s largest producers are Australia with 46% of world production in 2004, followed by South Africa with 31% and the Ukraine with 17%. Demand – US consumption of titanium dioxide pigment in 2004 rose +9.3% yr/yr to 1.170 million metric tons, up from last year’s 7-year low. US consumption of ilmenite in 2004 rose +13.8% to 1.480 million metric tons, which was a 7-year high. US consumption of rutile in 2004 fell –9.0% yr/ yr to a 6-year low of 445,000 metric tons. Trade – US imports of titanium dioxide pigment in 2004 rose +10.0% to a new record high of 264,000 metric tons. US imports of ilmenite in 2004 fell –12.8% yr/yr to an 11-year low of 701,000 metric tons. US imports of rutile in 2004 fell –15.7% yr/yr to 360,000 metric tons.
Average Prices of Titanium in the United States
Year
Average Price of Grade A Rutile Rutile Slag, 85% Ilmenite Titanium Dioxide Titanium Titanium Bagged F.O.B. Large Lots TiO2 F.O.B. F.O.B. Pigments, F.O.B. Metal Sponge, F.O.B. Australian Bulk, F.O.B. Richards Bay, Australian Sponge --------------- U.S. Plants ----------------Shipping Point Ports South Africa U.S. East Coast Ports --------------------------------- Dollars Per Metric Ton --------------------------------- -------------------------------------- Dollars Per Pound --------------------------------------
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
81-85 82-92 68-81 72-77 90-103 83-105 90-110 85-100 80-100 72-90
Preliminary.
2
349 353 391 386 406 425 419 445 401 ----
Estimate.
550-650 525-600 500-550 470-530 435-510 470-500 450-500 430-470 415-445 430-480
NA = Not available.
650-800 700-800 650-710 570-620 500-530 480-570 475-565 400-540 430-540 550-650
4.06 ----------------------------
4.25-4.50 4.25-4.50 4.25-4.50 4.25-4.50 3.70-4.80 3.95 3.58 3.64 2.72-3.95 3.55-6.44
.92-.96 1.06-1.08 1.01-1.03 .96-.98 .92-.94 .92-.94 .92-.94 .85-.95 .85-.95 .90-.95
.99-1.03 1.08-1.10 1.04-1.06 .97-.99 .99-1.02 .99-1.02 1.00-1.09 .85-.95 .85-.90 .90-.95
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Titanium in the United States
In Metric Tons
Year
----- Titanium Dioxide Pigment -------- Exports of Titanium Products ---Ingots, Apparent ---------- Ilmenite ---------- ---- Titanium Slag ---- ---------- Rutile4 ---------- Ores & ProConConConCon- ConcenDioxide & Billets, duction Imports3 Etc. trates sumption sumption Imports3 sumption Imports3 sumption Scrap Pigments Imports3
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
1,250,000 1,230,000 1,340,000 1,330,000 1,350,000 1,400,000 1,330,000 1,410,000 1,420,000 1,540,000
1
Preliminary.
2
183,000 167,000 194,000 200,000 225,000 218,000 209,000 231,000 240,000 264,000
Estimate.
3
1,130,000 861,000 1,070,000 939,000 1,130,000 952,000 1,140,000 1,010,000 1,160,000 1,070,000 1,150,000 918,000 1,100,000 1,060,000 1,110,000 840,000 1,070,000 804,000 1,170,000 701,000
For consumption.
4
1,410,000 1,400,000 1,520,000 1,300,000 1,280,000 1,250,000 1,180,000 1,300,000 1,300,000 1,480,000
388,000 582,000 421,000 ---430,000 ---626,000 ---678,000 ---533,000 ---594,000 ---445,000 ---409,000 ---457,000 ----
Natural and synthetic.
318,000 324,000 336,000 387,000 344,000 438,000 325,000 390,000 427,000 360,000
480,000 398,000 489,000 421,000 494,000 537,000 483,000 487,000 489,000 445,000
W = Withheld proprietary data.
32,300 15,500 23,800 59,700 9,380 18,900 7,800 3,810 10,300 8,690
3,420 3,410 5,500 7,010 8,130 5,060 7,500 6,000 5,320 9,780
306,000 292,000 362,000 356,000 344,000 423,000 349,000 485,000 518,000 576,000
2,560 3,130 3,860 3,780 3,390 2,980 3,260 3,460 3,960 4,990
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
283
TITANIUM World Production of Titanium Illmenite Concentrates Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia2
Brazil
China
Egypt
India
Malaysia
Norway
2,011 2,061 2,265 2,433 2,008 2,173 2,047 1,956 2,063 1,966
102 98 97 103 96 123 165 177 170 170
160 165 170 175 180 250 300 750 800 840
---124 125 125 130 125 125 125 125 125
290 330 332 378 378 380 430 460 500 520
152 245 168 125 128 125 130 106 95 100
833 747 750 590 600 750 750 750 840 860
Ukraine
United States
Vietnam
World Total
359 500 500 507 537 436 485 512 421 370
W W W W W 400 500 400 500 500
50 50 50 80 91 174 180 180 180 190
4,010 4,380 4,470 4,560 4,150 4,940 5,110 5,420 5,690 5,640
-- Titaniferous Slag3 -South Canada Africa
815 825 850 950 950 910 1,010 900 873 865
990 1,000 1,100 1,100 1,168 1,090 1,025 973 1,010 1,020
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes leucoxene. 3 Approximately 10% of total production is ilmenite. Beginning in 1988, 25% of Norway's ilmenite production was used to produce slag containing 75% TiO2. W = Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
World Production of Titanium Rutile Concentrates Australia
Brazil
India
Sierre Leone
195,000 180,000 233,000 238,000 179,000 208,000 206,000 218,000 173,000 162,000
1,985 2,018 1,742 1,800 4,300 3,162 1,791 1,878 2,337 2,350
14,000 15,000 14,000 16,000 16,000 17,000 19,000 18,000 18,000 19,000
-------------------------------
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 1
Preliminary.
NA = Not available.
In Metric Tons South Africa
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Ukraine
World Total
90,000 115,000 123,000 130,000 100,000 100,000 90,000 138,000 108,000 110,000
2,697 3,532 2,970 1,930 -------------------
-------------------------------
112,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 49,000 58,600 60,000 70,000 60,000 60,000
416,000 366,000 425,000 438,000 348,000 387,000 377,000 446,000 361,000 353,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
World Production of Titanium Sponge Metal & U.S. Consumption of Titanium Concentrates -- U.S. Consumption of Titanium Concentrates, by Products (In Metric Tons) ----------------- Rutile (TiO2 Content) ----------------
Production of Titanium (In Metric Tons) ---------------------------------- Sponge Metal2 ---------------------------------Year
China
Ja p a n
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
2,000 2,000 2,000 ----------------------
16,000 21,100 24,100 ----------------------
United Russia Kingdom
12,000 18,000 20,000 ----------------------
Total
Pigments
Misc.
W W W ----------------------
35,000 51,000 58,000 ----------------------
1,010,000 1,010,000 1,410,000 1,290,000 1,270,000 1,240,000 1,160,000 1,280,000 1,280,000 1,460,000
3
-------------------------------
Preliminary. 2 Unconsolidated metal in various forms. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
3
I ncluded in Pigments.
Average Price of Titanium1 in United States Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
Pigments
Misc.
Total
1,010,000 1,010,000 1,410,000 1,300,000 1,280,000 1,250,000 1,180,000 1,300,000 1,300,000 1,480,000
W W W W -------------------
417,000 341,000 406,000 384,000 469,000 513,000 455,000 464,000 466,000 418,000
22,300 24,200 27,600 37,300 25,800 24,100 28,500 22,900 22,500 26,700
439,300 365,000 434,000 421,000 494,000 537,000 483,000 487,000 489,000 445,000
3 3
14,000 13,400 13,900 15,400 16,000 16,700 19,300
NA = Not available.
W = Withheld proprietary data.
In Dollars Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
5.50 5.25 7.25 4.90 4.90 10.60
5.50 5.79 6.78 4.90 4.90 11.25
5.50 6.95 6.13 4.90 5.60 11.25
5.50 6.95 6.13 4.90 5.75 15.44
5.50 6.95 6.13 4.90 7.61 17.25
5.50 7.11 6.13 4.90 7.75 20.25
5.48 7.25 5.58 4.90 7.89 20.25
5.25 7.64 5.38 4.90 8.50 20.33
5.25 7.75 5.38 4.90 8.64 22.00
5.25 7.75 5.38 4.90 9.25 22.00
5.25 7.73 5.28 4.90 9.25 22.00
5.25 7.25 4.90 4.90 9.92 22.13
5.39 7.03 5.87 4.90 7.50 17.90
I ngot, 6A1 - 4V
284
Total
Welding Rod Coatings
------- Ilmenite (TiO2 Content) -------
United States
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Tobacco Tobacco is a member of the nightshade family. It is commercially grown for its leaves and stems, which are rolled into cigars, shredded for use in cigarettes and pipes, processed for chewing, or ground into snuff. Christopher Columbus introduced tobacco cultivation and use to Spain after observing natives from the Americas smoking loosely rolled tobacco-stuffed tobacco leaves. Tobacco is cured, or dried, after harvesting and then aged to improve its flavor. The four common methods of curing are: air cured, fire cured, sun cured, and flue cured. Flue curing is the fastest method of curing and requires only about a week compared with up to 10 weeks for other methods. Cured tobacco is tied into small bundles of about 20 leaves and aged one to three years. Virginia tobacco is by far the most popular type used in pipe tobacco since it is the mildest of all blending tobaccos. Approximately 60% of the US tobacco crop is Virginia-type tobacco. Burley tobacco is the next most popular tobacco. It is air-cured, burns slowly and provides a relatively cool smoke. Other tobacco varieties include Perique, Kentucky, Oriental, and Latakia. Prices – Tobacco prices (Types 11-37) three quarters through the 2004-05 marketing year (July-June), which is the latest data available, rose +1.7% to an average of $1.87 per pound from $1.84 per pound in 2003-04. That is just below the record high of $1.90 posted in 2001-02. Supply – World production of tobacco in 2004 (latest data available) rose by +6.7% yr/yr to 6.651 million metric tons, rebounding upward from the 18-year low of 6.232 million metric tons seen in 2003. The world’s largest producers of tobacco are China with 36% of world production, followed at a distance by Brazil (with 13% of world production), India (10%), and the US (6%). US production in 2004 rose by +5.4% yr/yr to 397,347 metric tons, where it was down by more than half from the 2-decade high of 810,154 metric tons posted in 1997. Tobacco in the US is primarily grown in the Mid-Atlantic States, which account for the vast majority of US production. Specifically, the largest tobacco producing states in the US are North Carolina (with 40% of US production in 2004), Kentucky (27%), Virginia (8%), Tennessee (8%), South Carolina (7%), and Georgia (5%). Flue-cured tobacco (type 11-14) is the most popular tobacco type grown in the US and US production in 2004 rose
World Production of Leaf Tobacco Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Brazil Canada
398,000 439,000 576,600 447,000 595,000 589,000 542,400 674,000 636,700 890,500
Preliminary.
2
79,287 65,320 71,110 69,300 64,864 48,271 53,112 49,015 42,683 39,870
Estimate.
sharply by +13.1% to 516.420 million pounds. The second most popular type is burley tobacco (type 31), which saw US production in 2004 rise +6.1% to 298.811 million pounds. US production of tobacco in 2004 rose +10.0% to 883 million pounds, which is half of the 2-decade high of 1.787 billion pounds posted in 1997. US farmers have sharply reduced the planting acreage for tobacco. In 2005 harvested tobacco acreage fell by –21.8% to 319,860 acres which is a new record low and far below the 22-year high of 836,230 posted just 8 years ago in 1997. Yields have been fairly constant and have averaged about 2,100 pounds per acre in the past 10 years. The farm value of the US tobacco crop in 2004 rose by +11.0% to $1.752 billion. US marketings of flue-cured tobacco (Types 11-14) in the 2004-05 marketing year rose by +0.8% yr/yr to 511.7 million pounds. US marketings of burley tobacco (Type 31) in the 2004-05 marketing year rose by +11.0% yr/yr to 301.5 million pounds. US production of cigarettes in 2004 fell by –1.0% to 495.0 billion cigarettes, which was down sharply from the record high of 754.5 million posted in 1996. US production of cigars rose by +5.2% yr/yr to 4.017 billion in 2003, which was the highest level since 1977. US production of chewing tobacco in 2004 fell by -6.5% to 40.5 million pounds, which was a record low. Demand – US per capita consumption of tobacco products in 2004 fell by -0.8% to a record low of 3.89 pounds per person per year. That is less than half of the record high of 9.68 pounds, which occurred at the beginning of the series in 1970. Per capita cigarette consumption in 2004 fell -2.5% to 1,791 cigarettes per person per year, which was a record low. Per capita consumption of cigars in 2004 fell -6.8% to 37.51 cigars per person per year, which was well below the 2-decade high of 40.5 cigars posted in 2002. Per capita consumption of loose smoking tobacco in 2004 fell -9.1% yr/yr to a record low of 0.10 pounds. Trade – US tobacco exports in 2004 rose +3.5% yr/yr to 354.0 million pounds, rebounding further from the record low of 325.8 million pounds seen in 2002. Meanwhile, US tobacco imports in 2004 fell –10.9% yr/yr to 561.7 million pounds from the 11-year high of 630.1 million pounds see in 2003. The US exported 125.0 billion cigarettes and 190 million cigars in 2004.
In Metric Tons
China
Greece
India
Indonesia
Italy
2,404,700 3,234,000 3,234,000 2,365,000 2,469,300 2,552,000 2,349,627 2,447,000 2,257,000 2,369,100
131,875 131,000 132,450 132,200 129,700 126,700 126,000 123,000 124,000 124,000
587,100 562,750 623,700 633,200 648,600 661,600 585,600 650,000 660,000 665,000
171,400 177,000 17,500 148,980 156,882 185,121 172,200 170,000 169,000 169,000
124,492 130,590 140,634 132,030 130,762 129,937 131,761 125,811 122,235 120,900
Pakistan
Turkey
United States
Zimbabwe
World Total
78,212 80,917 66,031 80,760 68,504 86,279 63,959 92,728 64,727 103,430 60,803 104,096 60,565 82,854 58,174 92,880 50,662 86,411 50,000 95,600
204,900 229,400 310,850 260,750 250,484 250,495 207,261 151,722 163,482 153,750
575,380 688,258 810,154 671,257 586,355 453,600 449,510 398,707 376,935 397,347
209,042 207,767 192,144 223,977 198,967 245,214 207,253 169,844 84,022 60,750
6,452,451 7,467,560 7,882,078 7,214,471 7,263,347 7,240,343 6,769,761 6,620,190 6,231,737 6,648,077
Ja p a n
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
285
TOBACCO Production and Consumption of Tobacco Products in the United States
Year
---- Chew ing Tobacco ----------------------------- Consumption5 of Per Capita6 -------------------------CigarCigarSmoking Chewing Total CigarL o o se Smoking ettes Cigars3 ettes Cigars3 Tobacco Tobacco Products ettes Cigars3 Plug Twist leaf Total Tobacco Snuff4 - Billions - - Millions - ---------------------- In Millions of Pounds ---------------------- ------ Number ------ -------------------------- In Pounds --------------------------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20052
754.5 719.6 679.7 606.6 594.1 562.8 532.0 500.0 492.7 NA
2,413 2,324 2,751 2,938 2,825 3,741 3,819 4,017 4,428 NA
3.9 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.3
1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
56.0 53.7 49.2 47.2 46.0 43.9 40.2 37.9 37.0 37.0
61.1 58.1 53.3 50.9 49.4 47.0 43.0 40.3 39.3 39.0
12.0 11.4 11.7 14.7 13.6 12.8 15.5 17.8 16.1 15.5
61.5 64.3 65.5 67.0 69.5 70.9 72.7 73.8 79.3 91.5
2,482 2,423 2,320 2,136 2,092 2,026 1,979 1,837 1,770 NA
32.7 36.9 38.0 39.5 38.1 40.5 40.1 40.3 37.5 NA
4.20 4.10 3.70 3.60 3.50 3.40 3.50 3.20 3.20 NA
.54 .61 .62 .65 .63 .66 .66 .53 .62 NA
.12 .12 .12 .14 .15 .15 .15 .11 .10 NA
.43 .41 .37 .35 .33 .31 .29 .25 .24 NA
4.70 4.55 4.49 4.32 4.14 4.11 4.23 3.92 3.89 NA
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Large cigars and cigarillos. 4 I ncludes loose-leaf. 5 Consumption of tax-paid tobacco products. Unstemmed processing weight. 6 18 years and older. NA = Not available. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS)
1
Production of Tobacco in the United States, by States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
20,100 19,053 17,102 15,312 11,475 11,700 11,960 11,000 9,800 5,500
113,620 89,225 90,200 64,020 68,820 64,206 53,000 59,400 46,690 27,760
14,972 18,690 17,000 11,700 7,980 9,450 7,800 8,190 8,610
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Pounds
Maryland
North Carolina
Ohio
395,542 10,000 497,928 12,000 443,628 9,100 408,492 9,100 283,065 8,265 254,653 3,300 222,991 1,800 225,042 1,595 235,003 1,870 267,260
585,542 731,199 551,730 448,980 406,500 386,920 347,920 299,995 350,560 278,900
12,640 22,230 17,934 17,052 13,200 11,956 9,625 8,745 10,976 6,732
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Tenne sse e
Virginia
16,817 117,810 109,888 103,543 17,020 126,360 114,292 117,576 15,720 92,250 111,100 95,898 11,170 78,000 122,601 88,855 10,170 81,260 95,958 56,613 6,166 78,400 86,893 63,415 6,815 59,475 71,331 64,407 7,880 63,000 65,632 38,818 8,100 63,450 65,381 67,285 10,700 42,000 51,670 39,840
Wisconsin
Total
5,162 1,518,704 5,690 1,787,399 4,230 1,479,867 2,818 1,292,692 2,255 1,052,999 3,619 991,223 3,817 871,122 4,255 802,560 3,541 881,973 680 639,709
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Tobacco in the United States Stocks of Tobacco5 ----- Tobacco ----- ---------------- U.S. Exports of ---------------- --------------- Various Types ---------------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041 20051 1 6
ProAcres (July - June) All Fire Cigar MaryCigar- Cigars & All Smoking Farm Farm Harvested Yield Per duction 2 3 Filler7 land ettes Cheroots Tobacco Tobacco4 Tobacco Cured6 Value Exports Imports Price Acre Million 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Cents/Lb. Million $ - Million Pounds - -------- Millions -------- ------------------------ In Millions of Pounds ------------------------
733.1 836.2 717.7 647.2 472.4 432.3 427.3 411.2 408.1 298.0
2,072 2,137 2,061 1,997 2,229 2,293 2,039 1,952 2,161 2,147
1,519 1,787 1,480 1,293 1,053 991 871 803 882 640
188.2 180.2 182.8 182.8 191.0 195.7 193.6 196.7 198.7 164.7
2,854 3,217 2,701 2,356 2,002 1,940 1,687 1,576 1,752 1,053
Preliminary. 2 Domestic. 3 For consumption. Kentucky-Tennessee types 22-23. 7 Types 41-46.
4
533.1 450.1 461.9 394.7 351.4 386.7 325.8 342.1 354.0
717.2 565.8 529.6 480.2 457.8 568.0 549.7 630.1 561.7
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
486 487 467 423 397 411 338 343 361
110.4 118.2 142.5 151.1 136.1 118.2 144.0 121.2 45.4
2,225 2,031 2,250 2,301 2,388 1,893 1,738 1,584 1,283
80.2 83.3 84.8 86.7 87.8 93.8 99.5 100.5 101.5
17.9 13.2 13.0 11.4 9.5 12.1 12.3 10.7 9.7
11.7 15.0 18.7 20.6 16.0 13.4 9.7 8.2 7.2
In Thousands of Pounds (Farm-Sale Weight)
11-14
21
22
23
31
32
35-36
37
41
41-61
51
54
55
61
908,345 1,047,438 812,797 656,752 598,915 579,091 514,385 456,690 521,535 383,510
1,738 1,968 2,340 2,672 2,548 2,202 1,471 839 1,345 680
29,461 27,952 25,922 24,773 34,167 30,720 23,292 23,504 24,800
13,029 12,342 11,573 10,630 14,920 12,377 10,145 10,165 11,006
520,483 648,633 582,336 555,185 362,788 334,066 293,537 281,698 292,172 195,362
16,545 18,240 15,370 14,350 13,395 5,346 4,205 4,195 5,830 3,000
8,550 8,196 9,663 11,640 15,896 13,949 10,570 11,230 11,584
112 119 122 155 165 154 116 84 124
10,272 10,780 9,450 5,920 5,040 4,120 4,410 5,280 4,140 2,860
20,441 22,511 19,744 16,535 10,205 13,318 13,401 14,155 13,363
2,901 3,637 3,633 4,169 1,070 3,822 4,021 3,386 3,767 4,065
3,610 4,194 3,270 2,252 1,825 3,042 3,151 3,472 2,744 2,805
1,552 1,496 960 566 430 577 666 783 797 780
2,106 2,404 2,431 3,628 1,840 1,757 1,153 1,234 1,915 1,895
Preliminary.
286
67 86 93 84 113 124 123 155 190
I n bulk. 5 Flue-cured and cigar wrapper, year beginning July 1; for all other types, October 1. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Tobacco Production in the United States, by Types Year
243,900 217,000 201,300 151,400 148,300 133,900 127,400 121,500 125,000
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
TOBACCO U.S. Exports of Unmanufactured Tobacco Year
Australia
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland
Thailand
United Kingdom
Total
5.6 4.2 5.0 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.5 6.3 3.6 2.9
39.7 38.9 25.2 18.3 23.2 49.7 29.4 61.7 27.4 12.7
15.1 15.5 14.8 14.9 15.7 12.2 13.6 13.5 10.2 8.2
3.2 7.0 6.6 5.6 5.5 11.5 10.3 8.8 16.3 10.7
60.1 72.2 84.6 71.9 86.1 94.8 59.5 55.8 53.5 52.6
17.3 18.3 13.6 15.1 15.8 6.2 8.6 7.6 6.6 5.8
88.7 80.5 85.3 60.3 63.6 51.6 49.6 42.4 34.6 21.7
40.4 30.2 43.9 64.5 19.7 21.6 10.3 9.8 15.8 25.4
3.7 5.2 2.6 3.9 3.5 3.6 1.2 1.6 .6 .7
14.9 11.4 10.3 16.1 9.5 14.4 27.3 34.8 9.4 15.5
15.9 21.6 14.2 6.8 7.3 7.7 12.6 3.6 8.5 4.1
34.4 18.2 15.6 9.0 7.3 1.6 6.0 4.8 4.0 3.0
485.5 487.4 466.3 417.5 402.4 409.7 338.0 343.3 360.9 335.5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Pounds (Declared Weight)
BelgiumLuxem.
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
U.S. Salient Statistics for Flue-Cured Tobacco (Types 11-14) in the United States
Crop Year
Acres Harvested 1,000
Yield Per Acre Pounds
Marketings
Stocks July 1
Total Supply
422.2 458.3 368.8 303.8 250.0 238.1 245.6 233.4 228.4 175.5
2,151 2,285 2,204 2,162 2,396 2,432 2,094 1,957 2,283 2,185
897 1,014 815 654 564 544 565 508 512 389
1,166 1,117 1,253 2,162 1,189 1,036 916 838 823 796
2,063 2,130 2,068 2,816 1,754 1,581 1,481 1,345 1,335 1,185
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
NA = Not available.
391 336 341 262 238 276 220 216 189 NA
555 541 492 437 479 389 423 333 338 NA
947 877 834 699 717 665 643 523 526 NA
Acres Harvested 1,000
Yield Per Acre Pounds
Marketings
Stocks Oct. 1
Total Supply
268.3 335.3 307.1 303.6 193.8 167.6 157.7 152.3 153.2 100.1
1,940 1,934 1,896 1,829 1,957 2,033 1,861 1,850 1,908 1,952
516 628 590 551 315 344 300 272 302 192
890 751 832 901 1,040 689 648 578 527 491
1,407 1,379 1,422 1,453 1,355 1,033 948 850 829 683
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Preliminary.
112,797 116,457 110,435 86,838 84,980 89,930 73,125 70,669 67,183 62,477
Before Christmas holidays.
2
Forecast.
786,473 832,381 776,640 611,054 606,145 660,924 532,713 519,732 490,547 418,225 NA = Not available.
160.1 162.1 162.8 163.2 164.0 166.0 165.6 166.3 169.0 NA
181.0 145.3 311.5 318.3 256.9 93.2 17.8 70.6 108.2 NA
.0 .0 182.7 144.9 135.9 65.0 12.8 68.7 128.5 NA
209 168 169 139 142 140 149 174 230 NA
446 379 349 273 524 245 221 136 99 NA
NA = Not available.
656 548 520 413 666 385 370 310 329 NA
192.2 188.5 190.3 182.9 196.3 197.3 197.4 197.7 199.4 NA
Price ----- Loan Stocks ----Support Gross Level UncomSales3 Cents/Lb. Nov. 30 mitted
422.6 337.9 431.6 356.6 169.7 258.5 217.7 197.3 202.3 NA
52,202 56,803 50,167 49,398 36,649 42,464 40,170 41,876 58,764 61,096
380,012 454,849 409,773 404,564 306,883 361,567 334,621 346,504 373,001 408,626
173.7 176.0 177.8 178.9 180.5 182.6 183.5 184.9 187.3 NA
216.8 105.6 183.8 226.6 420.7 119.3 124.2 91.7 115.1 NA
27.1 38.5 142.2 186.7 336.5 74.8 46.1 26.5 8.5 NA
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
In Metric Tons
----------------------------------------------------------------- Unmanufactured ---------------------------------------------------------------FlueValue Value Value Cured 1,000 USD Burley 1,000 USD Total 1,000 USD
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 0 0 41 20052 1
1.8 195.5 82.4 136.4 27.4 15.0 24.8 59.8 94.9 NA
In Millions of Pounds
Farm Total Domestic Price D i sa p D i sa p Exports pearance pearance Cents/Lb.
Exports of Tobacco from the United States (Quantity and Value) Year
183.4 172.0 175.5 173.7 179.3 185.7 182.5 184.9 184.6 NA
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Salient Statistics for Burley Tobacco (Type 31) in the United States Crop Year
In Millions of Pounds
Placed Price ----- Loan Stocks ----Under Support Gov't Farm Total Domestic Level UncomLoan Price D i sa p D i sa p Exports pearance pearance Cents/Lb. Million Lb. Cents/Lb. Nov. 30 mitted
222,316 221,510 211,930 191,975 179,892 186,302 153,427 155,722 163,693 152,197
1,390,311 1,553,314 1,458,877 1,311,643 1,204,085 1,268,839 1,049,709 1,038,073 1,044,440 983,213
Manufactured
Value 1,000 USD
83,383 85,734 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5,238,340 4,956,392 4,517,500 3,232,862 4,012,711 2,734,377 1,950,188 1,843,922 1,566,223 1,298,291
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
287
Tung Oil Tung oil is a yellow drying oil produced from the seed of the tung tree. The seeds or nuts of the tung tree are harvested and pressed to yield tung oil. Tung oil is used mostly as an industrial lubricant and drying agent, and is the most powerful drying agent known. It is also used in paints and varnishes, soaps, inks, and electrical insulators. Tung oil is poisonous, containing glycerol esters of unsaturated fats. The oil is also used as a substitute for linseed oil in paints, varnishes, and linoleum, and as a waterproofing agent. Prices – The price of tung oil in 2004 rose by +12.9% yr/yr to 85.42 cents per pound, recovering further from the 15-year low of 43.77 cents per pound seen in 2002. Demand – US consumption of tung oil has fallen
World Tung Oil Trade Year
In Metric Tons
---------------------------------------------------------- Imports ---------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------- Exports --------------------------------Hong NetherSouth United World ArgenHong ParaWorld Germany Kong Ja p a n lands Korea Taiwan States Total tina China Kong guay Total
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
sharply over the past decade. In 2005 (through October), US consumption fell sharply by –41.9% yr/yr to 1.973 million pounds. The 2005 consumption level was only 9% of 1996’s 15-year high of 21.645 million pounds. Trade – World imports of tung oil in 2004 fell sharply by –9.1% yr/yr to 25,000 metric tons. US imports of tung oil in 2004 fell sharply by –30.6% to 2,975 metric tons. The world’s largest importers of tung oil are South Korea with 22% of world imports, Taiwan with 14%, the US with 12%, Japan with 8%, and the Netherlands with 7%. The world’s largest exporter of tung oil by far is China with 18,850 metric tons of exports in 2004, accounting for 74% of total world exports.
601 1,002 885 582 325 303 100
Preliminary.
2
1,101 470 416 36 702 306 207
Estimate.
3,813 2,455 2,225 1,647 1,930 2,023 1,900
2,738 2,488 2,156 1,904 1,793 1,687 1,778
4,410 3,560 4,900 3,390 6,968 6,396 5,486
5,730 6,699 4,346 2,113 5,185 3,974 3,529
3,880 5,822 3,554 4,429 4,166 4,287 2,975
31,672 31,528 28,273 23,594 29,760 27,489 25,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
21,743 24,172 24,213 17,615 23,334 19,509 18,850
In Thousands of Pounds
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
862 1,065 1,044 427 685 428 128
797 1,083 842 476 276 400 110
967 1,064 533 583 508 350 144
1,071 1,193 366 410 317 402 151
2,137 1,159 281 471 322 264 371
1,140 1,176 431 454 233 324 127
1,519 1,107 253 428 270 338 161
1,043 1,224 430 877 349 310 189
1,012 733 399 695 406 186 92
933 711 411 978 269 186 171
962 700 243 862 376 101 146
937 648 235 886 228 109 W
13,380 11,863 5,468 7,547 4,239 3,398 1,953
Year
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
2,010 691 685 W 490 W 90
3,427 910 2,438 W W W 128
5,427 611 2,181 W 858 W 107
3,740 2,555 2,131 W 763 519 182
3,078 2,254 1,881 1,341 722 229 130
2,788 1,982 1,727 1,206 790 209 141
2,710 1,658 1,578 885 398 226 134
2,346 1,381 1,168 516 W 137 122
2,047 1,262 1,046 483 W 91 114
1,959 1,217 714 551 W 161 93
1,359 1,011 W 560 W 121 116
1,002 827 W 478 W 117 70
W = Withheld proprietary data.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Price of Tung Oil (Imported, Drums) F.O.B. in New York Year
1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
110.00 100.00 59.00 60.50 60.50 45.00 85.00
110.00 100.00 59.00 62.00 44.50 45.00 85.00
110.00 100.00 59.00 62.00 44.50 52.80 85.00
110.00 100.00 59.00 62.00 42.00 84.75 85.00
100.00 100.00 59.00 62.00 40.00 85.00 85.00
100.00 74.00 59.00 62.00 40.00 85.00 85.00
100.00 74.00 59.00 62.00 40.00 85.00 85.00
100.00 74.00 59.00 62.00 40.00 85.00 85.00
100.00 74.00 59.00 62.00 40.00 85.00 85.00
100.00 74.00 59.00 62.00 43.75 85.00 85.00
100.00 74.00 59.00 60.50 45.00 85.00 85.00
100.00 74.00 59.00 60.50 45.00 85.00 90.00
103.33 84.83 59.00 61.63 43.77 75.63 85.42
Preliminary.
288
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
Preliminary.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
28,643 30,890 30,649 21,991 30,351 25,951 25,500
F eb.
Stocks of Tung Oil at Factories & Warehouses in the U.S., on First of Month
1
2,161 2,303 2,799 1,974 4,390 2,479 3,626
Jan.
Preliminary.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
552 560 494 108 589 323 240
Source: The Oil World
Consumption of Tung Oil in Inedible Products in the United States Year
2,205 1,425 1,870 1,061 916 2,299 1,299
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Tungsten Tungsten (symbol W) is a grayish-white, lustrous, metallic element. The atomic symbol for tungsten is W because of its former name of Wolfram. Tungsten has the highest melting point of any metal at about 3410 degrees Celsius and boils at about 5660 degrees Celsius. In 1781, the Swedish chemist Carl Wilhelm Scheele discovered tungsten.
ports in 2005 rose sharply by +155.4% yr/yr to a record high of $213.97 per short ton. Supply – World concentrate production of tungsten in 2004 rose by +10.5% yr/yr to 73,700 metric tons. That was a new record high. The world’s largest producer of tungsten by far is China with 67,000 metric tons of production in 2004, which is 90% of total world production. Russia is the next largest producer with a miniscule amount of 3,000 metric tons.
Tungsten is never found in nature but is instead found in the minerals wolframite, scheelite, huebnertite, and ferberite. Tungsten has excellent corrosion resistance qualities and is resistant to most mineral acids. Tungsten is used as filaments in incandescent lamps, electron and television tubes, alloys of steel, spark plugs, electrical contact points, cutting tools, and in the chemical and tanning industries.
Trade – The US in 2004 relied on imports for 73% of its tungsten consumption, up from 69% in 2003. US imports for consumption in 2004 fell sharply by –50.7% yr/yr to 2,310 metric tons, which was an 11-year low. US exports in 2004 were negligible at 43 metric tons.
Prices – The average monthly price of tungsten at US
World Concentrate Production of Tungsten
In Metric Tons (Contained Tungsten3)
Year
Austria
Bolivia
Brazil
Burma
Canada
China
Mongolia
North Korea
Portugal
Russia
Rwanda
Thailand
World Total
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
1,400 1,423 1,610 1,600 1,237 1,400 1,400 1,400
513 497 334 382 533 399 441 440
40 ---13 18 22 24 17 20
272 178 87 74 48 83 93 100
---------------2,295 3,636 ----
25,000 30,000 31,100 37,000 38,500 55,100 55,500 67,000
26 35 27 52 63 35 40 40
900 500 500 500 500 600 600 600
1,036 831 434 743 698 693 715 746
3,000 3,000 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,400 3,900 3,000
33 109 41 108 142 153 78 120
30 35 30 30 53 31 208 200
33,200 37,000 37,700 44,000 45,300 64,200 66,700 73,700
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Conversion Factors: WO3 to W, multiply by 0.7931; 60% WO3 to W, multiply by 0.4758. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
Salient Statistics of Tungsten in the United States
Year
Net Import -------------------- Consumption of Tungsten Products by End Uses -------------------Reliance Cutting Products as a % of --------------- Steel --------------Stainless Chemical & Wear Made from Apparent & Heat Alloy and Metal MiscelCon- Total ConSuper- Resistant Tool Assisting Steel3 Powder laneous Ceramic sumption sumption alloys Materials
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
84 78 81 68 59 70 69 73
Preliminary. Miscellaneous.
1
In Metric Tons (Contained Tungsten)
6,590 3,210 2,100 W W W W W
361
151 532 486 408 389 313 312 259
4
W W W W W W
Estimate. 3 Other than tool. Source: U.S. Geological Survey
2
277 219 189 W W W W W 4
366 333 306 498 599 426 W W
6,280 6,640 5,910 5,960 5,650 4,820 5,210 6,020
828 1,270 1,860 W W W W W
I ncluded with stainless & heat assisting.
Average Price of Tungsten at U.S. Ports (Including Duty) Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
151 532 -------------------
123 97 93 89 80 133 129 130
Stocks at End of Year --- Concentrates ---
Exports
Imports for Consumption
Consumers
Producers
12 10 26 70 220 94 20 43
4,850 4,750 2,870 2,370 2,680 4,090 4,690 2,310
658 603 376 W W W W W
44 W W W W W W W
W = Withheld proprietary data; included with
In Dollars Per Short Ton
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
64.00 49.50 53.75 83.50 ---60.25 63.00 97.08
64.00 49.50 53.75 86.00 70.00 61.55 63.00 109.32
64.00 49.50 53.75 90.00 70.00 63.00 66.83 134.13
64.00 49.50 53.29 93.00 70.00 63.00 89.77 178.21
64.00 48.57 50.50 96.15 70.00 63.00 92.50 272.26
62.44 48.75 50.50 96.50 68.13 63.00 92.50 277.61
57.00 49.16 51.88 93.88 57.88 63.00 88.95 275.25
57.00 50.88 53.50 92.88 59.88 63.00 86.09 237.28
57.00 51.50 69.00 91.00 60.25 63.00 87.00 232.50
57.00 54.44 74.00 89.89 60.25 63.00 89.86 244.05
54.43 54.75 76.00 83.84 60.25 63.00 92.00 255.00
49.88 54.75 78.92 79.57 60.25 63.00 93.83 255.00
57.19 52.00 64.67 87.72 64.26 62.65 83.78 213.97
U.S. Spot Quotations, 65% WO3, Basis C.I .F.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
289
Turkeys During the past three decades, the turkey industry has experienced tremendous growth in the US. Turkey production has more than tripled since 1970, with a current value of over $7 billion. Turkey was not a popular dish in Europe until a roast turkey was eaten on June 27, 1570, at the wedding feast of Charles XI of France and Elizabeth of Austria. The King was so impressed with the birds that the turkey subsequently became a popular dish at banquets held by French nobility. The most popular turkey product continues to be the whole bird, with heavy demand at Thanksgiving and Christmas. The primary breeders maintain and develop the quality stock, concentrating on growth and conformation in males and fecundity in females, as well as characteristics important to general health and welfare. Turkey producers include large companies that produce turkeys all year round, and relatively small companies and farmers who produce turkeys primarily for the seasonal Thanksgiving market. Prices – The average monthly price received by farmers for turkeys in the US in 2005 rose by +7.7% yr/yr to a 20 year high of 45.2 cents per pound, slightly below the 1985 record high of 47.2 cents per pound. The monthly average retail price of turkeys (whole frozen) in the US in 2005 (through June) fell –2.3% yr/yr to 106.5 cents per pound,
down from last year’s record high of 109.0 cents per pound. Turkey prices have nearly tripled from the low 40-cent area seen in the early 1970s. Supply – World production of turkeys in 2005 rose by +2.1% yr/yr to 4.956 million metric tons, which was a new record high. World production of turkeys has grown by more than two and one-half times since 1980 when production was 2.090 million metric tons. The US is the largest producer of turkeys by far with 2.541 million metric tons of production in 2003, representing 50% of world production. The value of US turkey production in 2004 was $3.065 billion. Demand – World consumption of turkeys in 2005 rose +1.0% to 4.779 million metric tons, which was just below the record high of 4.827 million metric tons posted in 2002. US turkey consumption of 2.281 million metric tons in 2005 accounted for 48% of world consumption. US per capita consumption of turkeys in 2005 fell – 3.5% yr/yr to 16.5 pounds per person per year. US per capital consumption of turkeys has been in the range of 17-18 pounds since 1990, but has now dropped below that level and the USDA is projecting that per capita consumption will continue to drop.
Production and Consumption of Turkey Meat, by Selected Countries Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 20062 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons (RTC)
------------------------------------------ Production ------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ Consumption -----------------------------------------European United World European United World Brazil Canada Union Mexico Russia States Total Brazil Canada Union Mexico Russia States Total
101 107 115 137 165 182 200 240 280 310
Preliminary.
2
142 139 139 152 149 147 148 145 155 156
Forecast.
1,638 1,700 2,100 2,019 2,098 2,102 2,025 2,038 2,030 2,035
11 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 13
12 9 8 7 7 9 12 15 17 18
2,455 2,366 2,372 2,419 2,490 2,557 2,529 2,441 2,461 2,487
4,587 4,571 4,839 4,844 4,934 5,018 4,936 4,901 4,965 5,028
78 87 89 93 96 92 88 104 110 120
134 139 136 137 135 142 136 141 145 147
1,486 1,526 1,890 1,818 1,931 1,910 1,912 1,931 1,925 1,940
124 127 136 146 157 153 171 156 182 191
163 156 169 170 171 174 126 92 98 104
2,141 2,214 2,224 2,223 2,269 2,316 2,301 2,272 2,221 2,194
4,387 4,519 4,807 4,753 4,827 4,835 4,786 4,750 4,732 4,749
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Turkeys in the United States
Poults Placed3 Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042
Number Raised4
---- In Thousands ----
320,882 325,375 305,612 297,798 297,387 298,094 301,721 296,877 289,542 277,717
292,356 302,713 301,251 285,204 270,494 269,969 272,059 275,477 274,048 264,207
----- Livew eight ----Produced Price Mil. Lbs. Cents/Lb.
6,761.3 7,222.8 7,225.1 7,050.9 6,886.4 6,942.8 7,154.8 7,494.9 7,487.3 7,304.8
41.0 43.3 39.9 38.0 40.8 40.7 39.0 36.5 36.1 42.0
Value of Production Million $
2,769.4 3,124.5 2,884.4 2,683.5 2,806.6 2,828.5 2,796.8 2,732.5 2,699.7 3,065.4
Wholesale ------------------- Ready-to-Cook Basis -------------------- Ready-to-Cook -Production B e3-Region --- Consumption --- ---------- Costs ---------Pro- ginning Pro- Weighted P er F eed Total duction Stocks Exports Total duction Average Capita ----------- In Millions of Pounds ----------L i v e w e i g h t B a s is -Price5 Costs L b s.
5,069 5,401 5,412 5,215 5,231 5,334 5,489 5,638 5,576 5,372
254 271 328 415 304 254 241 241 333 354
348 438 606 446 378 445 487 439 484 443
4,705 4,907 4,720 4,880 4,905 4,903 5,004 5,108 5,074 5,003
17.6 18.2 17.3 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.4 17.1
21.90 31.60 28.20 22.96 19.00 19.98 20.55 20.85 22.59
35.60 45.30 41.90 36.66 32.70 33.68 34.25 34.55 36.29
60.80 72.90 68.70 62.12 57.17 58.40 59.11 59.48 61.66
66.20 66.80 63.80 62.15 67.81 68.06 63.63 61.09 60.41
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Poults placed for slaughter by hatcheries. 4 Turkeys place August 1-July 31. 5 Regions include central, eastern and western. Central region receives twice the weight of the other regions in calculating the average. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA) 1
290
TURKEYS Turkey-Feed Price Ratio in the United States
In Pounds2
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
5.3 5.4 5.4 6.5 7.6 7.3 7.2 5.7 5.1 6.9
5.2 5.1 5.2 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.2 5.7 4.6 6.9
5.1 5.0 5.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 6.8 5.9 4.5 6.6
4.8 5.1 5.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 6.8 5.9 4.5 6.7
4.6 5.3 5.8 8.2 7.8 8.1 7.3 5.7 4.8 7.0
4.9 5.6 6.1 8.7 8.5 8.3 7.3 5.8 5.2 7.0
4.9 6.0 6.5 9.7 9.5 7.9 6.9 5.9 5.8 7.3
4.8 5.9 7.6 9.5 10.0 7.8 6.3 5.7 7.0 8.1
5.3 6.1 8.1 9.6 10.1 8.3 6.0 6.0 7.9 9.1
6.2 6.2 8.3 10.0 10.0 9.6 6.1 6.3 8.4 9.6
6.4 6.2 8.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 6.5 6.3 8.7 10.1
6.1 5.8 7.5 9.2 8.1 8.1 6.4 5.7 8.2 9.6
5.3 5.7 6.7 8.6 8.7 8.2 6.7 5.9 6.2 7.9
Preliminary. 2 Pounds of feed equal in value to one pound of turkey, liveweight. Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Average Price Received by Farmers for Turkeys in the United States (Livew eight) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
40.9 38.6 35.5 34.8 36.4 36.6 34.1 34.6 34.9 39.3
42.4 36.4 34.0 35.7 35.7 36.3 34.1 34.5 35.0 38.0
41.8 37.8 34.6 37.0 38.2 37.1 32.9 35.1 36.6 38.1
42.2 39.7 35.7 38.7 40.0 37.6 32.9 35.6 38.4 39.2
43.2 41.3 35.5 39.4 40.8 38.2 35.8 34.9 40.1 41.1
44.4 41.6 35.9 41.3 41.8 38.3 37.2 34.9 41.7 42.5
45.0 41.1 37.5 42.0 42.2 38.5 38.6 33.6 43.3 45.0
44.3 41.0 38.6 43.0 43.2 38.7 38.2 32.7 45.1 46.9
44.2 41.1 40.2 44.3 44.8 40.5 37.2 36.2 46.2 50.7
45.1 41.0 42.7 45.3 46.1 44.2 37.2 39.1 48.1 52.9
45.5 41.9 43.8 45.3 47.1 44.5 39.8 41.2 48.7 54.9
43.2 38.7 40.3 42.2 40.5 38.7 38.7 38.2 45.9 54.3
43.5 40.0 37.9 40.8 41.4 39.1 36.4 35.9 42.0 45.2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Wholesale Price of Turkeys1 (Hens, 8-16 Lbs.) in New York
In Cents Per Pound
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
64.60 59.71 55.65 57.67 61.58 61.50 60.86 61.04 62.13 67.63
64.65 57.84 54.04 58.84 61.84 61.18 60.03 61.13 61.61 65.34
65.07 59.30 55.49 61.69 65.35 62.38 59.00 61.24 62.62 64.68
64.82 62.93 55.49 63.02 67.38 63.45 59.52 61.43 64.52 65.86
65.39 66.64 58.68 65.55 69.18 65.65 63.52 60.36 66.41 67.69
65.85 68.60 58.14 68.89 70.36 66.00 65.68 60.12 68.95 69.50
65.66 68.59 58.68 71.62 71.55 66.10 66.52 58.18 71.21 72.56
64.94 68.20 63.17 73.57 73.61 66.38 66.56 57.74 73.32 75.98
64.16 67.89 65.65 76.28 76.53 68.81 67.15 61.52 74.69 80.90
69.09 67.33 71.52 79.30 78.74 72.86 67.75 66.08 76.89 82.40
73.58 70.07 72.95 78.99 79.58 73.48 69.79 69.33 78.29 85.75
70.05 62.18 69.00 72.39 70.31 67.71 66.96 66.85 76.05 82.60
66.49 64.94 61.54 68.98 70.50 66.29 64.45 62.09 69.72 73.41
Ready-to-cook.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Certified Federally Inspected Turkey Slaughter in the U.S. (RTC Weights) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
412.4 439.7 430.5 408.9 396.9 458.3 477.2 473.6 435.5 439.0
426.5 389.5 407.7 361.0 412.4 405.9 442.1 427.1 389.0 396.3
422.3 399.6 437.8 428.8 466.2 458.7 447.8 464.6 466.6 459.4
430.9 448.8 444.0 435.8 413.5 425.1 487.2 471.1 445.2 439.7
483.0 465.8 419.1 438.6 489.2 485.1 496.7 475.8 445.1 456.3
454.7 481.4 454.2 452.4 479.4 460.7 448.0 478.0 462.8 485.8
484.8 488.8 456.0 434.7 422.8 465.1 474.7 483.9 455.4 427.5
476.6 453.0 409.9 464.3 481.6 481.7 475.9 449.3 462.2 483.7
440.9 457.6 425.3 451.3 423.0 409.2 439.4 453.6 451.2 450.6
518.1 510.0 470.5 468.7 494.7 536.2 519.0 522.8 461.5 479.1
465.9 450.6 459.5 487.6 478.2 477.7 488.2 450.3 479.6 478.2
406.1 457.9 428.2 425.4 396.5 413.2 457.9 436.1 434.4 435.9
5,422 5,443 5,243 5,257 5,354 5,477 5,654 5,586 5,389 5,431
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
291
TURKEYS Per Capita Consumption of Turkeys in the United States Year
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
3.6 3.7 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.7
3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.2
4.2 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4
6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5
17.9 18.5 17.6 18.1 18.0 17.8
2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 20062
3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4
3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7
4.3 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.9
5.6 5.9 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2
17.5 17.7 17.4 17.1 16.7 16.2
Estimate.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1
Preliminary.
In Pounds
First Quarter
2
Storage Stocks of Turkeys (Froz en) in the United States on First of Month Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
271.3 328.0 415.1 304.3 254.3 241.3 240.5 333.0 354.0 288.4
339.2 401.0 497.6 363.8 319.4 291.4 327.1 451.9 420.5 332.9
423.1 446.4 512.7 375.6 353.9 333.5 413.2 492.7 471.7 379.4
445.4 496.5 527.0 374.9 391.4 355.8 457.6 549.3 504.6 416.8
514.5 543.3 579.7 455.4 416.9 392.6 515.2 573.5 548.8 443.1
587.4 611.8 614.1 494.3 480.3 456.0 578.2 658.8 571.1 469.1
679.7 667.9 656.5 556.1 506.8 506.7 644.1 718.2 597.6 509.7
718.2 714.3 701.8 599.0 524.0 534.2 706.2 722.5 599.6 522.2
723.2 742.0 706.8 580.3 524.9 545.3 685.6 706.5 600.2 526.6
721.0 770.7 699.5 596.4 528.1 542.0 672.4 647.5 527.4 477.8
658.3 736.6 658.7 494.5 473.9 497.9 624.9 582.7 472.3 417.6
347.8 438.6 310.4 252.3 261.1 260.0 334.3 350.7 294.9 195.2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Retail Price of Turkeys (Whole froz en) in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
103.5 106.3 103.4 96.9 101.3 108.8 102.2 106.6 108.4 105.8
104.7 106.7 100.1 100.1 102.5 112.5 105.1 105.8 109.4 106.3
106.9 104.7 99.6 98.4 101.5 112.7 106.6 105.5 113.4 106.1
101.4 103.2 97.2 93.6 99.7 109.7 104.0 100.1 108.4 105.8
104.3 104.5 95.7 97.5 102.9 109.4 102.5 106.0 109.0 106.9
104.1 107.8 99.1 100.5 106.5 110.9 107.3 110.6 111.7 108.0
104.4 107.4 100.8 103.1 109.5 111.0 108.0 113.4 112.9 116.5
108.6 109.2 102.4 101.5 104.5 113.5 106.8 116.2 114.2 116.6
106.5 108.9 105.2 101.8 104.4 116.2 106.6 116.7 108.8 112.1
107.4 106.2 102.5 102.5 106.7 114.6 111.7 111.2 112.3 113.7
98.1 97.6 93.4 96.4 98.1 98.0 103.8 100.6 99.6 102.3
102.0 98.2 95.4 97.6 99.4 99.5 98.8 105.4 100.3 106.6
104.3 105.1 99.6 99.2 103.1 109.7 105.3 108.2 109.0 108.9
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Retail-to-Consumer Price Spread of Turkeys (Whole) in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
292
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
30.4 38.3 38.8 29.9 32.1 39.5 34.2 38.4 39.4 31.3
30.7 40.7 37.2 32.7 33.9 43.3 37.9 37.6 40.4 33.4
33.6 37.5 35.2 28.6 29.1 42.5 40.7 36.8 42.5 33.3
28.0 32.0 31.2 21.3 25.9 39.1 38.3 31.2 35.0 31.5
29.3 29.6 29.4 22.5 27.6 37.7 32.9 38.1 33.5 30.9
28.0 32.0 30.7 22.6 29.5 38.7 35.9 42.9 33.9 29.4
27.9 32.0 29.6 23.2 30.9 38.6 35.9 47.1 33.3 25.6
32.1 34.5 29.0 29.1 23.7 40.5 34.9 50.0 32.5 22.4
30.3 34.3 29.3 18.5 21.1 41.0 35.4 47.2 25.7 24.1
28.9 31.9 21.3 17.6 21.7 35.6 40.2 37.8 26.9 22.9
18.0 20.0 10.3 12.0 13.4 18.7 29.8 25.1 14.0 8.7
26.6 26.9 19.0 19.6 23.1 27.0 24.6 33.2 18.0 16.8
28.7 32.5 28.4 23.1 26.0 36.9 35.1 38.8 31.3 25.9
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Uranium Uranium (symbol U) is a chemically reactive, radioactive, steel-gray, metallic element and is the main fuel used in nuclear reactors. Uranium is the heaviest of all the natural elements. Traces of uranium have been found in archeological artifacts dating back to 79 AD. Uranium was discovered in pitchblende by German chemist Martin Heinrich Klaproth in 1789. Klaproth named it uranium after the recently discovered planet Uranus. French physicist Antoine Henri Becquerel discovered the radioactive properties of uranium in 1896 when he produced an image on a photographic plate covered with a light-absorbing substance. Following Becquerel’s experiments, investigations of radioactivity led to the discovery of radium and to new concepts of atomic organization. The principal use for uranium is fuel in nuclear power plants. Demand for uranium concentrates is directly linked to the level of electricity generated by nuclear power plants. Uranium ores are widely distributed throughout the world and are primarily found in Canada, DRC (formerly Zaire), and the US. Uranium is obtained from primary mine production and secondary sources. Two Canadian companies are the primary producers of uranium from deposits in the Athabasca Basin of northern Saskatchewan. Specifically, the companies Cameco accounted for 19% of global mine production in 2000 and Cogema Resources accounted for 15% of world production. Secondary sources of uranium include excess inventories from utilities and other fuel cycle participants, used reactor fuel, and dismantled Russian nuclear weapons.
Prices – The average price of delivered uranium in 2002 (the latest data available) rose by +2.1% yr/yr to $10.36 per pound from $10.15 in 2001. The 2001 price of $10.15 was a record low for the data series that goes back to 1981. The price of delivered uranium in 2002 of $10.36 was roughly one-third of the price of $30 per pound and above seen in the 1980s through 1986 when the price started falling. Supply – World production of uranium oxide (U308) concentrate in 2003 rose +7.3% yr/yr to a 13-year high of 56,552 short tons from last year’s 52,709 short tons. The world’s largest uranium producers are Canada with 17,050 short tons of production in 2003 (30% of world production), the US with 10,200 short tons of production (18% of world production), and Australia with 9,326 short tons of production (16% of world production). US production in 2003 was the highest since 1983. US uranium production in 2003 rose +64.4% yr/yr to a 20-year high of 10,200 short tons, up sharply from the record low of 1,315 short tons in 2001. US production had reached a peak of 21,850 short tons in 1980 and production had since fallen steadily to the record low in 2001, which was only 6% of the record level of production. Trade – US imports of uranium in 2003 (latest data available) rose +0.7% yr/yr to a record high of 53.044 million pounds. The US is being forced to import more uranium as domestic production steadily declines. US exports of uranium fell –14.3% yr/yr to 13.187 million pounds, which was still well above the 7-year low of 8.510 million pounds posted in 1999.
World Production of Uranium Oxide (U3O8) Concentrate Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
Australia
Canada
China
Czech Rep. & Slovakia
3,050 4,900 6,450 7,150 6,350 7,875 9,830 10,035 10,857 9,326
11,950 13,600 15,250 15,650 14,200 10,680 13,875 16,270 17,153 17,050
------------------655 650 W W
------------------795 595 0 W
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
In Short Tons (Uranium Content)
France
Gabon
Germany
Namibia
Niger
South Africa
United States
ExUSSR
World Total
1,700 1,250 1,200 940 660 450 525 195 -------
750 800 750 600 950 380 ------W 0
------------------45 ---W 0
2,500 2,600 3,150 3,770 3,590 3,495 2,430 2,910 1,082 1,034
3,800 3,750 4,300 4,500 4,850 3,790 3,270 3,795 W 0
2,250 1,850 2,200 1,065 1,250 1,195 1,305 1,135 764 1,438
1,950 3,050 3,150 2,900 2,435 2,325 1,890 1,315 6,206 10,200
------------------655 1,050 W W
41,750 43,050 46,650 46,550 44,110 39,640 43,475 47,395 52,709 56,552
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics, I nc. (ABMS)
Commercial and U.S. Government Stocks of Uranium, End of Year
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
------------------ Utility -----------------Natural Enriched Uranium Uranium1
41.2 42.2 47.1 42.1 44.8 36.0 34.4 31.0 22.7 27.3
17.5 23.9 18.8 23.7 13.5 18.9 21.2 22.4 23.0 29.1
---------- Domestic Supplier ---------Natural Enriched Uranium Uranium1
13.2 13.0 10.3 35.0 29.5 12.6 9.2 15.0 2 2
.5 1.0 30.1 35.7 39.4 43.8 39.0 32.9 39.9 38.0
In Millions of Pounds U3O8 Equivalent Total Commercial Stocks
72.5 80.0 106.2 136.5 127.1 111.3 103.8 102.1 85.2 94.3
DOE Ow ned --------------- & USEC Held --------------Natural Enriched Uranium Uranium1
82.0 83.2 53.2 24.5 53.1 53.1 53.1 51.8 W W
28.8 25.3 ------------------W W
I ncludes amount reported as UF6 at enrichment suppliers. 2 I ncluded in Enriched beginning 2003. DOE = Department of Energy USEC = U.S. Energy Commission Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
293
URANIUM Reported Average Price Settlements for Purchases by U.S. Utilities and Domestic Suppliers Year of Delivery
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
10.68 10.58 13.40 13.33 12.53
9.76 10.19 13.66 11.20 9.33
20.03 17.86 16.13 14.52 13.50
10.57 12.05 14.91 12.11 10.31
In $/Pound
Contract Market Price & Contract Price Price1 Cost Floor Total & Market Year of Delivery ---------------------- Averages of Reported Prices ----------------------
Contract Market Price & Contract Price Price1 Cost Floor Total & Market ---------------------- Averages of Reported Prices ----------------------
10.63 10.79 13.72 13.13 12.37
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
12.72 12.31 11.72 10.73 ----
9.52 9.11 8.04 9.79 ----
14.75 -------------
11.16 11.04 10.15 10.36 10.81
12.57 -------------
No floor. Note: Price excludes uranium delivered under litigation settlements. Price is given in year-of-delivery dollars. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
1
Uranium Industry Statistics in the United States ----- Production -----
Year
Mine
Concentrate
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2.5 3.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.5 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.2
3.352 6.000 6.300 5.600 4.700 4.600 4.000 2.600 2.300 2.000
1
Average Price Concent- ----------------- Employment -- Person Years -----------------Deliveries Delivered rate to U.S. Uranium ShipExplorProUtilities1 $/Lb. U3O8 ments ation Mining Milling cessing Total
6.319 5.500 6.000 5.800 4.900 5.500 3.200 2.200 3.800 1.600
From suppliers under domestic purchases.
41 27 27 30 30 7 1 0 W W
157 226 333 413 518 310 157 81 W W
105 121 155 175 160 201 106 42 104 W
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
149 161 175 175 203 132 137 122 100 W
980 1,107 1,118 1,097 1,120 848 627 423 426 321
38.3 43.4 47.3 42.0 42.7 47.9 51.8 55.4 52.7
10.40 11.25 14.12 12.88 12.14 11.63 11.04 10.15 10.36
Avg. Price Delivered Uranium Imports Imports $/Lb. U3O8
36.6 41.3 45.4 43.0 43.7 47.6 44.9 46.7 52.7 53.0
8.95 10.20 13.15 11.81 11.19 10.55 9.84 9.51 10.05 10.59
Exports
17.7 9.8 11.5 17.0 15.1 8.5 13.6 11.7 15.4 13.2
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Month-End Uranium (U3O8) Transaction Values1 Year
In Millions of Pounds U3O8
In Dollars Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
10.20 15.33 10.63 9.03 9.03 6.78 9.58 10.20 14.85 20.55
10.48 15.08 10.63 9.08 8.70 6.83 9.72 10.10 15.47 21.18
10.93 14.85 10.60 9.20 8.55 6.83 9.90 10.10 16.50 21.20
11.70 14.75 10.05 9.20 8.50 7.25 9.76 10.16 17.52 21.20
13.03 14.43 10.00 9.53 8.40 7.38 9.90 10.84 17.75 21.20
13.25 10.95 9.80 9.48 8.18 7.45 9.90 10.90 17.86 21.20
14.93 10.68 9.80 9.48 8.13 7.83 9.88 10.90 17.90 21.20
15.18 10.45 9.73 9.40 7.98 7.95 9.85 11.13 17.90 21.20
15.40 10.55 9.55 9.35 7.88 9.00 9.79 11.47 18.60 21.20
15.53 10.48 9.35 9.23 7.40 9.47 9.85 12.32 20.80 21.20
15.48 10.43 9.25 9.18 7.15 9.44 9.86 13.18 20.20 21.20
15.38 10.53 9.05 9.13 6.80 9.50 9.97 13.98 20.50 21.20
13.45 12.37 9.87 9.27 8.06 7.97 9.83 11.27 17.99 21.14
Transaction value is a weighed average price of recent natural uranium sales transactions, based on prices paid on transactions closed within the previous three-month period for which delivery is scheduled within one year of the transaction date; at least 10 transactions involving a sum total of at least 2 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent. Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
1
-----
294
USD Per Pound U.S. Spot Market (Jan. 1976 - date)
Vanadium Vanadium (symbol V) is a silvery-white, soft, ductile, metallic element. Discovered in 1801, but mistaken for chromium, vanadium was rediscovered in 1830 by Swedish chemist Nils Sefstrom, who named the element in honor of the Scandinavian goddess Vanadis. Never found in the pure state, vanadium is found in about 65 different minerals such as carnotite, roscoelite, vanadinite, and patronite, as well as in phosphate rock, certain iron ores, some crude oils, and meteorites. Vanadium is one of the hardest of all metals. It melts at about 1890 degrees Celsius and boils at about 3380 degrees Celsius. Vanadium has good structural strength and is used as an alloying agent with iron, steel, and titanium. It is used in aerospace applications, transmission gears, photography, as a reducing agent, and as a drying agent in various paints. Prices – The price of vanadium in 2004 rose sharply to the range of $2.75-9.80 per pound from the $1.50-$2.80 per pound posted in 2003. Supply – Virtually all (99%) of vanadium is produced from ores, concentrates, and slag, with the remainder coming from petroleum residues, ash, and spent catalysts. World production of vanadium in 2004 fell –0.2% yr/yr to 40,400 metric tons. That was moderately below the record high
World Production of Vanadium
production level of 46,000 posted in 2002. The world’s largest producer of vanadium is South Africa with 17,200 metric tons of production in 2004 representing 43% of world production. The two other major producers are China with 35% of world production and Russia with 20% of world production. Production in Russia and South Africa has been relatively stable in recent years, while China’s production grew sharply in the late 1990s. China’s production level of 14,000 metric tons in 2004 was below the record high of 15,500 metric tons posted in 1998, but was more than double the levels seen in the early 1990s. Japan is the only significant producer of vanadium from petroleum residues, ash, and spent catalysts with 245 metric tons of production in each of the last 10 years. Trade – The US exports very little vanadium. US imports of vanadium were mainly in the form of ore, slag and residues with 9,200 metric tons of imports in 2004, up very sharply by 314.4% yr/yr. Other key import categories of vanadium were ferro-vanadium (3,740 metric tons, +121% yr/ yr), vanadium pent-oxide, anhydride (1,230 metric tons, +81% yr/yr), and oxides and hydroxides (133 metric tons, +80% yr/yr).
In Metric Tons (Contained Vanadium)
------------------------------------- From Ores, Concentrates and Slag -------------------------------------
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1 6
Australia
China3
Kazakhstan
Russia
South Africa
---1,520 2,660 3,060 160 ----
10,400 12,000 12,000 13,200 13,200 14,000
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
7,000 7,500 7,500 8,000 5,800 8,000
17,612 18,021 18,184 20,500 20,100 17,200
36,000 40,000 41,300 45,800 40,300 40,200
245 245 245 245 245 245
-------------------
World Total
245 245 245 245 245 245
36,300 40,300 41,600 46,000 40,500 40,400
5 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I n vanadiferous slag product. 4 Excludes U.S. production. I n vanadium pentoxide product. I n vanadium pentoxide and ferrovanadium products. Source: U.S. Geological Survey(USGS)
Salient Statistics of Vanadium in the United States
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
From Petroleum Residues
--------------- Ash, Spent Catalysts ----------United Total4 States6 Japan5 Total
In Metric Tons (Contained Vanadium)
Con- ----------- Vanadium Consumption by Uses in the U.S. ----------High Stainless sumer & Strength, & Heat Producer Re- SuperFull Low Stocks, Tool Cast Total Alloy sisting alloys Carbon Alloy Dec. 31 Steel Irons
348 303 251 221 250 305
Preliminary.
2
344 225 146 270 143 239
W W W W W W
Estimate.
865 944 797 900 938 1,160
W W W 38 70 60
14 17 18 12 13 17
1,050 861 1,090 773 1,030 689 731 748 1,030 808 1,300 1,060
W = Withheld proprietary data.
3,620 3,510 3,210 3,080 3,240 4,050
------------ Exports ----------- ------------------ Imports -----------------Ores, Vanadium Vanadium Pent- Oxides FerroPent- Oxides Ferro- Slag, Average oxide, & Hydr- VanaReoxide, & Hydr- Vana$ P er Lb. dium V2O5 Anhydride oxides dium sidues Anhydride oxides
1.99 1.82 1.37 1.34 2.21 5.28
747 653 670 453 791 598
70 100 385 443 438 823
213 172 70 142 424 285
1,650 1,890 1,670 1,870 2,220 9,200
208 902 600 406 679 1,230
---21 57 66 74 133
1,930 2,510 2,550 2,520 1,690 3,740
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Price of Vanadium Pentoxide in United States
In Dollars Per Pound
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2.09 1.43 1.23 1.55 2.50 9.65
2.09 1.41 1.11 1.55 3.43 10.24
2.09 1.38 1.26 1.55 3.74 13.75
2.30 1.41 1.24 1.55 5.25 15.00
2.30 1.44 1.55 1.55 5.25 20.36
2.30 1.46 1.75 1.55 5.25 26.16
2.30 1.46 1.75 1.55 5.26 19.96
2.11 1.45 1.45 1.55 4.64 11.63
1.83 3.52 1.45 1.55 4.40 11.10
1.61 3.90 1.45 1.55 5.15 13.74
1.52 2.08 1.45 1.95 7.00 13.75
1.46 1.30 1.52 2.10 8.63 11.00
2.00 1.85 1.43 1.63 5.04 14.70
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
295
Vegetables Vegetables are the edible products of herbaceous plants, which are plants with soft stems. Vegetables are grouped according to the edible part of each plant including leaves (e.g., lettuce), stalks (celery), roots (carrot), tubers (potato), bulbs (onion), fruits (tomato), seeds (pea), and flowers (broccoli). Each of these groups contributes to the human diet in its own way. Fleshy roots are high in energy value and good sources of the vitamin B group, seeds are relatively high in carbohydrates and proteins, while leaves, stalks, and fruits are excellent sources of minerals, vitamins, water, and roughage. Vegetables are an important food for the maintenance of health and prevention of disease. Higher intakes of vegetables have been shown to lower the risks of cancer and coronary heart disease. Vegetables are best consumed fresh in their raw state in order to derive the maximum benefits from their nutrients. While canned and frozen vegetables are often thought to be inferior to fresh vegetables, they are sometimes nutritionally superior to fresh produce because they are usually
processed immediately after harvest when nutrient content is at its peak. When cooking vegetables, aluminum utensils should not be used, because aluminum is a soft metal that is affected by food acids and alkalis. Scientific evidence shows that tiny particles of aluminum from foods cooked in aluminum utensils enter the stomach and can injure the sensitive lining of the stomach. Prices – The monthly average index of fresh vegetable prices received by growers in the US in 2005 (through August) rose by +3.6% to147.2 from last year’s level of 142.1. The record high of 152.0 was posted in 2003. Demand – The leading vegetable in terms of US per capita consumption in 2004 was the potato with 136.0 pounds of consumption. Runner-up vegetables were tomatoes (88.9 pounds), sweet lettuce (31.3 pounds), corn (27.8 pounds), and onions (20.5 pounds). Total US per capita vegetable consumption in 2004 was 445.6 pounds, up +0.6% from 2003. That is up about 25% from the 356.2 pounds consumed in 1980.
Index of Prices Received by Grow ers for Commercial Vegetables1 in the United States Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
98 121 158 112 126 95
86 147 192 113 144 121
107 138 272 123 115 164
135 137 120 129 131 183
131 144 115 138 112 134
117 120 109 152 111 140
119 125 115 119 124 114
129 145 121 138 133 119
143 134 119 144 134 132
125 103 105 143 159 114
144 109 110 156 166 118
115 171 104 175 121 169
121 133 137 137 131 134
Not seasonally adjusted. 1990-92=100. 1 I ncludes fresh and processing vegetables. Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
2
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics
Index of Prices Received by Grow ers for Fresh Vegetables (0113-02) in the United States Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
111.3 147.0 146.1 147.8 143.8 122.0
100.5 168.6 188.7 127.5 125.9 152.8
122.3 178.7 242.5 153.0 140.3 168.5
126.8 145.6 101.7 167.7 133.1 174.7
152.0 144.9 107.2 165.0 132.9 144.2
128.1 129.4 123.2 138.8 101.0 160.0
127.2 109.7 127.1 133.3 102.8 126.8
136.7 127.2 125.4 136.6 128.3 132.3
155.9 132.3 116.7 164.7 141.9 153.8
165.0 112.3 126.9 156.9 200.0 144.0
173.9 105.9 127.4 148.4 211.1 155.5
120.3 121.0 119.0 184.7 143.7 194.9
135.0 135.2 137.7 152.0 142.1 152.5
Not seasonally adjusted.
1990-92=100.
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS)
Producer Price Index of Canned1 Processed Vegetables (0244) in the United States Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
121.3 121.4 128.3 128.8 131.5 135.7
120.8 121.4 128.2 129.0 131.7 135.9
121.2 121.3 128.0 128.9 131.9 136.1
120.9 121.3 128.2 129.3 131.9 136.3
121.2 121.4 128.3 129.4 131.7 137.6
121.5 121.9 128.0 129.3 132.8 137.6
121.1 124.1 127.7 129.4 133.0 137.7
120.9 124.9 129.4 129.1 133.3 137.7
121.1 125.3 128.7 130.0 133.4 137.7
121.6 126.5 129.5 130.7 134.6 137.8
121.7 128.0 129.1 131.1 135.4 137.4
121.3 128.1 129.1 131.3 135.5 138.2
121.2 123.8 128.5 129.7 133.1 137.1
Not seasonally adjusted. 1 I ncludes canned vegetables and juices, including hominy and mushrooms. Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor (BLS)
2
Preliminary.
Producer Price Index of Froz en Processed Vegetables (0245) in the United States Year
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
Source: Bureau of Labor
1982 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
125.4 127.6 130.0 133.4 135.1 137.3
126.2 128.5 131.1 134.1 136.0 137.3
125.7 127.7 130.1 133.3 135.3 137.4
126.3 128.7 131.2 134.0 135.3 137.5
126.3 128.4 130.7 134.1 134.3 137.5
124.9 127.7 129.7 133.9 134.7 137.4
125.9 128.9 131.4 134.9 135.4 137.2
126.4 128.8 131.3 134.2 135.8 136.8
126.2 128.8 131.5 134.2 136.8 136.5
126.9 130.0 132.2 135.2 138.1 136.9
126.1 129.2 131.9 135.1 137.2 137.6
126.2 129.1 132.6 135.0 137.0 137.8
Not seasonally adjusted.
296
1982 = 100
Jan.
1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor (BLS)
126.0 128.6 131.1 134.3 135.9 137.3
VEGETABLES Per Capita Use of Selected Commercially Produced Fresh and Processing Vegetables in the U.S. In Pounds, farm weight basis Crop Asparagus, All Fresh Canning Freezing Snap beans, All Fresh Canning Freezing Broccoli, All1 Fresh Freezing Cabbage, All Fresh Canning (kraut) Carrots, All2 Fresh Canning Freezing Cauliflower, All1 Fresh Freezing Celery Sweet Corn, All3 Fresh Canning Freezing Cucumbers, All Fresh Pickling Melons Watermelon Cantaloupe Honeydew Lettuce, All Head lettuce Romaine & Leaf Onions, All Fresh Dehydrating Green Peas, All4 Canning Freezing Peppers, All Bell Peppers, All Chile Peppers, All Tomatoes, All Fresh Canning Other, Fresh5 Other, Canning6 Other, Freezing7 Subtotal, All8 Fresh Canning Freezing Potatoes, All Fresh Processing Sweet Potatoes Mushrooms Dry Peas & Lentils9 Dry Edible Beans
1994 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 6.8 1.6 3.5 1.7 6.9 4.3 2.6 9.5 8.1 1.4 15.4 11.2 1.6 2.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 6.9 28.5 7.8 10.4 10.3 10.6 5.6 5.0 26.1 15.2 9.0 1.9 28.1 22.2 5.9 19.1 17.8 1.3 3.7 1.6 2.1 9.9 6.2 3.7 91.4 16.8 74.6 8.4 2.4 2.8
1995 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 7.2 1.5 3.8 1.9 7.0 4.5 2.5 9.3 8.3 1.0 16.9 12.4 1.7 2.8 2.2 1.7 0.5 7.0 29.1 8.3 10.4 10.4 10.0 5.9 4.1 28.9 16.6 10.3 2.0 27.4 21.6 5.8 19.1 18.3 0.8 3.4 1.5 1.9 11.7 7.1 4.6 90.8 17.4 73.4 8.8 2.2 3.1
1996 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 6.7 1.3 3.6 1.8 7.3 5.0 2.3 10.4 9.0 1.4 18.2 14.1 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.8 0.4 6.5 27.5 8.3 9.1 10.1 11.6 6.4 5.2 28.2 15.5 10.5 2.2 30.5 23.9 6.6 19.7 18.8 0.9 3.5 1.5 2.0 10.9 6.4 4.5 89.9 17.3 72.6 9.2 2.3 3.0
1997 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 7.4 1.6 3.8 2.0 7.1 5.0 2.1 9.8 8.4 1.4 13.7 9.5 1.4 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 6.5 28.4 9.3 9.2 9.8 10.5 6.5 4.0 27.3 14.3 10.6 2.3 28.9 22.3 6.6 19.5 18.4 1.1 3.3 1.4 1.9 11.1 6.4 4.7 92.5 18.5 74.0 10.0 2.1 2.9
1998 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 7.6 1.9 3.7 2.0 8.3 6.2 2.1 8.8 7.6 1.2 13.1 9.3 1.4 2.4 2.3 1.8 0.5 6.5 28.3 9.1 9.1 10.1 10.9 6.7 4.2 29.0 15.2 11.4 2.5 32.5 24.9 7.6 20.8 18.5 2.3 3.4 1.4 2.0 11.4 6.7 4.7 90.3 19.1 71.2 10.5 2.5 3.2
1999 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 7.9 2.0 4.0 1.8 8.1 5.9 2.3 10.3 8.9 1.4 13.0 9.2 1.1 2.7 2.3 1.7 0.6 6.3 27.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.2 6.4 4.9 27.2 13.8 11.1 2.3 31.8 23.5 8.4 20.4 18.9 1.6 3.7 1.5 2.1 12.1 7.0 5.1 89.1 19.0 70.1 17.7 2.6 3.2
2000 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 7.8 2.2 3.8 1.9 7.4 5.4 2.0 10.1 8.8 1.3 11.9 9.4 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 6.4 27.2 9.2 8.7 9.3 10.0 6.3 3.7 28.1 15.0 11.2 2.0 31.0 23.0 8.0 19.5 18.5 1.0 3.3 1.4 2.0 12.0 6.9 5.1 84.7 19.2 65.5 16.6 2.8 3.2
2001 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 7.2 2.1 3.4 1.8 7.5 5.4 2.1 9.5 8.3 1.2 12.2 8.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 0.3 6.3 26.1 9.0 7.8 9.3 11.9 6.5 5.4 27.3 14.0 11.1 2.2 32.1 22.5 9.6 20.4 19.3 1.1 2.8 1.1 1.7 12.5 6.8 5.7 89.6 20.3 69.3 17.2 2.4 4.3
2002 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 7.5 2.0 3.7 1.9 8.1 5.5 2.6 8.7 7.6 1.1 11.5 8.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.4 6.3 26.8 9.5 8.3 9.0 10.5 6.1 4.4 26.7 13.6 10.8 2.2 33.4 22.2 11.2 21.3 19.5 1.8 3.2 1.3 1.9 12.4 6.9 5.5 89.3 19.5 69.8 17.9 2.5 3.8
20039 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 7.5 1.9 3.7 1.9 8.5 5.9 2.7 9.5 8.3 1.1 12.0 8.9 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 0.4 6.0 26.9 9.6 8.2 9.1 10.9 6.3 4.6 24.6 13.0 9.5 2.2 34.5 22.5 12.0 22.8 21.7 1.2 2.9 1.2 1.6 13.1 7.1 6.0 89.7 19.3 70.4 18.6 2.7 4.3
200410 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 7.6 2.0 3.8 1.9 8.5 5.9 2.6 9.4 8.3 1.1 11.8 8.7 1.4 1.6 2.2 1.8 0.4 6.0 26.8 9.7 8.2 8.9 10.8 6.5 4.3 26.0 13.4 10.4 2.2 34.4 22.1 12.2 21.6 20.3 1.3 3.0 1.2 1.8 12.8 7.1 5.8 90.1 19.4 70.8 18.5 2.7 4.6
279.7 151.1 104.5 22.8
285.0 158.1 102.9 23.2
288.6 163.5 101.9 22.3
284.2 158.6 102.2 22.3
290.5 166.1 99.6 22.5
295.3 172.0 100.0 21.8
285.3 170.3 93.5 20.4
292.4 171.4 98.4 21.5
293.0 172.0 98.1 21.1
297.9 175.4 99.8 21.6
298.0 175.5 99.4 21.8
136.9 49.2 87.7 4.2 3.8 0.7 7.6
145.0 49.9 95.1 4.3 3.9 0.5 7.5
137.8 47.3 90.5 4.3 4.0 0.9 7.4
137.7 46.9 90.8 3.8 3.9 0.8 7.3
136.2 47.7 88.5 3.7 4.1 0.6 7.8
137.9 47.1 90.8 4.2 4.1 0.8 7.6
138.8 46.6 92.2 4.4 3.9 0.6 7.0
132.1 44.3 87.8 3.8 4.1 0.9 6.7
138.2 46.8 91.4 4.7 4.1 0.6 6.6
134.6 45.8 88.8 4.8 4.1 0.7 5.7
130.3 42.8 87.5 4.6 4.2 0.9 6.3
Total, All I tems 432.9 446.2 442.9 437.7 442.9 449.9 440.0 439.9 447.2 447.8 444.3 All production for processing broccoli and cauliflower is for freezing. 2 I ndustry allocation suggests that 27 percent of processing carrot production is for canning and 73 percent is for freezing. 3 On-cob basis. 4 I n-shell basis. 5 I ncludes artichokes, brussels sprouts, eggplant, endive/escarole, garlic, radishes, and spinach. 6 I ncludes beets, chile peppers (1980-94, all uses), and spinach. 7 I ncludes green lima beans, spinach, and miscellaneous freezing vegetables. 8 Fresh, canning, and freezing data do not add to the total because onions for dehydrating are included in the total. 9 Preliminary. 10 Forecast. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
297
VEGETABLES Average Price Received by Grow ers for Broccoli in the United States Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
34.90 27.70 22.60 22.70 55.30 25.20 33.60 22.60
27.10 20.10 20.10 32.30 44.40 40.90 28.50 33.30
31.70 23.20 27.40 24.70 33.80 28.10 21.60 42.70
40.50 20.20 23.20 26.90 24.00 27.10 24.00 40.20
27.10 18.60 44.30 25.50 20.80 29.70 27.20 22.40
29.60 23.10 30.00 27.00 28.40 24.60 28.70 39.70
23.30 18.70 31.50 23.60 27.00 27.00 24.20 22.40
27.60 27.40 25.20 27.10 29.60 29.80 29.70 30.50
29.20 29.30 27.70 22.90 40.60 49.10 57.00 27.70
32.80 23.00 34.10 24.20 24.00 38.90 43.90 22.40
25.80 21.60 56.00 22.20 37.10 48.00 44.20 20.90
31.20 39.20 34.10 20.00 35.00 40.00 45.40 34.10
30.20 24.10 31.20 26.50 31.40 32.70 33.20 28.50
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Grow ers for Carrots in the United States
1
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
14.00 16.10 22.60 22.70 55.30 25.20 33.60 22.60
13.00 19.60 20.10 32.30 44.40 40.90 28.50 33.30
13.00 21.50 27.40 24.70 33.80 28.10 21.60 42.70
12.60 26.50 23.20 26.90 24.00 27.10 24.00 40.20
12.00 25.40 44.30 25.50 20.80 29.70 27.20 22.40
11.90 22.80 30.00 27.00 28.40 24.60 28.70 39.70
10.60 17.20 31.50 23.60 27.00 27.00 24.20 22.40
10.80 13.30 25.20 27.10 29.60 29.80 29.70 30.50
10.60 10.10 27.70 22.90 40.60 49.10 57.00 27.70
10.90 10.50 34.10 24.20 24.00 38.90 43.90 22.40
11.60 11.30 56.00 22.20 37.10 48.00 44.20 20.90
11.00 11.50 34.10 20.00 35.00 40.00 45.40 34.10
12.20 16.80 31.20 26.50 31.40 32.70 33.20 28.50
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Grow ers for Cauliflow er in the United States Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
39.10 29.40 22.60 22.70 55.30 25.20 33.60 22.60
43.20 31.10 20.10 32.30 44.40 40.90 28.50 33.30
49.10 42.80 27.40 24.70 33.80 28.10 21.60 42.70
44.70 46.40 23.20 26.90 24.00 27.10 24.00 40.20
35.50 23.40 44.30 25.50 20.80 29.70 27.20 22.40
26.40 25.50 30.00 27.00 28.40 24.60 28.70 39.70
23.20 19.60 31.50 23.60 27.00 27.00 24.20 22.40
26.10 25.40 25.20 27.10 29.60 29.80 29.70 30.50
32.30 21.70 27.70 22.90 40.60 49.10 57.00 27.70
25.90 22.30 34.10 24.20 24.00 38.90 43.90 22.40
33.20 35.10 56.00 22.20 37.10 48.00 44.20 20.90
37.50 55.50 34.10 20.00 35.00 40.00 45.40 34.10
34.50 29.70 31.20 26.50 31.40 32.70 33.20 28.50
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Grow ers for Celery in the United States
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
11.20 9.51 22.60 22.70 55.30 25.20 33.60 22.60
11.40 8.47 20.10 32.30 44.40 40.90 28.50 33.30
16.40 8.35 27.40 24.70 33.80 28.10 21.60 42.70
13.80 10.20 23.20 26.90 24.00 27.10 24.00 40.20
15.40 12.80 44.30 25.50 20.80 29.70 27.20 22.40
12.40 18.30 30.00 27.00 28.40 24.60 28.70 39.70
10.60 14.00 31.50 23.60 27.00 27.00 24.20 22.40
10.30 10.30 25.20 27.10 29.60 29.80 29.70 30.50
10.50 10.60 27.70 22.90 40.60 49.10 57.00 27.70
10.40 9.14 34.10 24.20 24.00 38.90 43.90 22.40
11.90 12.80 56.00 22.20 37.10 48.00 44.20 20.90
14.00 17.20 34.10 20.00 35.00 40.00 45.40 34.10
11.70 12.00 31.20 26.50 31.40 32.70 33.20 28.50
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Grow ers for Sw eet Corn in the United States Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
18.70 19.60 31.50 32.70 24.80 29.00 30.80 21.30
31.60 23.30 25.10 34.00 23.50 24.00 20.70 28.60
24.20 21.80 19.30 26.10 26.30 18.90 20.20 26.00
20.10 18.90 18.70 18.10 19.40 14.90 17.60 25.40
17.10 18.50 14.40 24.60 20.80 16.60 18.10 25.60
14.00 15.00 18.00 18.60 18.80 23.20 22.80 26.40
16.40 17.30 22.00 19.80 27.90 21.30 21.80 25.30
16.40 16.60 20.70 19.20 21.80 20.10 22.90 21.20
18.10 17.30 20.10 19.00 22.50 19.70 24.10 26.20
25.30 16.50 24.00 23.80 25.80 23.70 33.50 30.30
24.80 28.40 16.80 24.80 15.50 30.70 46.70 35.60
14.30 40.70 33.00 22.60 18.30 22.60 36.80 21.20
17.20 16.90 18.50 19.50 19.20 19.30 20.80 22.10
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
298
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
VEGETABLES Average Price Received by Grow ers for Head Lettuce in the United States Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
11.30 14.90 19.00 10.30 14.60 13.60 26.20 12.10 15.40 11.50
14.90 9.58 10.90 15.50 9.28 22.80 44.10 11.80 19.80 11.70
16.50 13.50 12.50 16.30 14.10 15.10 86.40 9.64 10.40 26.30
13.20 15.70 27.20 20.20 22.80 21.60 14.10 12.50 14.80 29.70
13.30 10.40 14.30 14.00 23.60 18.80 10.20 21.20 10.50 13.90
15.20 14.90 11.80 11.40 13.50 12.10 10.60 32.20 13.30 17.30
12.70 17.10 15.50 12.70 15.00 16.40 11.30 11.90 10.70 11.00
23.50 22.80 16.40 12.00 19.20 26.90 14.60 21.50 17.10 13.50
13.70 22.30 14.00 13.10 29.40 26.20 14.30 23.90 15.20 12.70
15.40 34.80 21.00 13.10 16.20 11.50 13.50 26.30 24.10 12.40
17.70 22.20 10.80 10.70 19.90 10.90 11.90 31.70 14.90 9.66
8.87 25.10 12.50 16.20 12.00 10.00 30.00 21.30 15.70 16.60
14.70 17.50 16.20 13.30 17.30 17.90 21.10 18.10 16.90 15.60
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Grow ers for Tomatoes in the United States
1
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
S e a so n Average
18.40 32.10 26.40 33.50 21.40 43.80 40.50 47.20 34.50 15.40
40.00 45.90 44.00 23.40 21.10 29.10 26.60 31.70 36.30 40.90
81.70 57.40 34.00 22.30 33.00 56.40 38.50 53.30 42.20 44.10
50.50 24.90 37.20 23.70 34.80 19.00 34.30 30.00 44.20 62.50
24.40 32.20 36.50 21.00 23.10 37.80 29.60 23.70 32.20 53.00
24.20 30.30 29.00 29.00 21.80 28.50 33.00 45.70 21.70 38.70
26.00 29.20 40.90 23.10 24.60 27.40 28.50 37.60 23.40 30.20
22.10 27.60 25.10 25.00 33.90 27.60 25.80 41.00 37.80 28.60
23.40 25.90 28.40 26.50 29.50 23.50 23.70 35.70 38.20 43.40
28.30 26.50 43.00 21.30 42.60 28.60 27.60 30.10 67.90 37.50
29.70 43.60 42.10 26.00 47.80 28.50 40.10 30.50 89.00 39.70
30.40 40.80 42.20 28.90 37.60 25.00 38.00 29.10 47.10 96.80
28.10 31.70 35.20 25.80 30.70 30.00 31.60 37.40 37.50 41.50
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
In Dollars Per Cwt.
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Froz en Vegetables: January 1 and July 1 Cold Storage Holdings in the U.S. Crop
Asparagus Limas, Fordhook Limas, Baby Green Beans, Reg. Cut Green Beans, Fr. Style Broccoli, Spears Broccoli, Chopped & Cut Brussels sprouts Carrots, Diced Carrots, Other Cauliflower Corn, Cut Corn, Cob Mixed vegetables Okra Onion Rings Onions, Other Blackeye Peas Green Peas Peas and Carrots Mixed Spinach Squash, Dummer/Zucchini Southern greens Other Vegetables
2001 July 1
2002 Jan. 1
14,705 6,742 17,169 49,355 8,955 35,926 89,062 12,244 60,047 101,103 26,866 97,601 74,548 47,647 42,863 7,799 38,277 3,257 240,139 8,571 97,278 31,839 28,131 248,289
10,686 14,304 50,358 140,311 20,517 38,035 76,491 17,595 89,361 186,831 36,443 351,820 263,457 51,453 35,939 6,978 29,893 4,473 224,715 8,847 63,368 43,198 35,861 336,555
July 1
2003 Jan. 1
10,954 7,323 30,017 48,312 7,398 56,679 66,486 10,645 47,110 91,705 25,589 137,242 85,566 45,248 35,964 8,619 32,143 5,896 198,452 6,746 106,198 36,878 26,478 24,187
6,988 13,068 45,544 167,669 19,726 49,326 67,727 20,220 99,188 143,368 35,635 402,164 262,338 41,396 46,616 9,636 29,844 6,323 171,161 6,597 56,193 44,617 22,986 313,421
In Thousands of Pounds
July 1
2004 Jan. 1
July 1
2005 Jan. 1
July 1
20061 Jan. 1
10,977 4,646 20,570 55,559 7,272 53,689 81,782 11,053 36,340 90,741 16,083 176,505 108,477 42,360 35,847 7,772 28,757 5,340 162,836 7,897 104,522 33,549 20,243 265,556
7,368 5,984 46,383 126,175 23,166 30,185 47,135 18,961 98,398 154,404 28,146 494,490 288,957 43,537 37,596 6,915 31,717 3,292 180,850 6,581 46,492 43,614 18,749 329,499
14,064 1,960 21,716 51,147 6,596 50,314 58,843 11,588 49,485 75,288 12,518 227,404 109,612 56,156 33,111 8,426 28,862 3,004 206,413 5,674 83,287 31,326 16,330 248,416
9,280 8,450 48,955 151,229 22,925 35,882 57,607 23,519 117,745 140,440 37,123 502,025 242,271 46,892 33,875 6,587 33,278 2,693 230,326 5,641 34,724 45,724 17,328 363,579
13,943 3,502 27,360 76,655 8,157 45,581 62,382 16,028 63,871 93,702 19,916 234,965 78,525 49,493 28,097 6,181 39,424 1,878 227,162 5,416 87,983 39,164 18,905 267,205
9,029 7,687 40,867 171,319 22,341 35,814 62,561 21,660 128,877 150,317 43,836 464,177 263,818 55,236 31,734 4,757 43,349 2,348 214,851 5,227 42,464 61,518 13,750 353,315
Total
1,388,413 2,137,489 1,369,523 2,081,751 1,388,373 2,118,594 1,411,540 2,218,098 1,515,495 2,250,852
Potatoes, French Fries Potatoes, Other Frozen Potatoes, Total
1,083,484 1,010,098 937,933 877,292 900,194 869,521 864,111 838,438 947,971 848,595 271,650 229,659 285,605 253,920 281,594 250,897 263,341 236,381 242,493 202,504 1,355,134 1,239,757 1,223,538 1,131,212 1,181,788 1,120,418 1,127,452 1,074,819 1,190,464 1,051,099
Grand total
2,743,547 3,377,246 2,593,061 3,212,963 2,570,161 3,239,012 2,538,992 3,292,917 2,705,959 3,301,951
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
299
Wheat Wheat is a cereal grass, but before cultivation it was a wild grass. It has been grown in temperate regions and cultivated for food since prehistoric times. Wheat is believed to have originated in southwestern Asia. Archeological research indicates that wheat was grown as a crop in the Nile Valley about 5,000 BC. Wheat is not native to the US and was first grown here in 1602 near the Massachusetts coast. The common types of wheat grown in the US are spring and winter wheat. Wheat planted in the spring for summer or autumn harvest is mostly red wheat. Wheat planted in the fall or winter for spring harvest is mostly white wheat. Winter wheat accounts for nearly three-fourths of total US production. Wheat is used mainly as a human food and supplies about 20% of the food calories for the world’s population. The primary use for wheat is flour, but it is also used for brewing and distilling, and for making oil, gluten, straw for livestock bedding, livestock feed, hay or silage, newsprint, and other products.
keting year fell –1.6% to 616.427 million metric tons from the record high of 626.641 million metric tons seen in 200405. The world’s largest wheat producers are the European Union with 19.9% of world production in 2005-06, China (15.7%), India (11.7%), the US (9.3%), Russia (7.7%), Australia (6.2%), and Canada (4.3%). China’s wheat production in 2005-06 rose +5.5% yr/yr to 97.0 million metric tons, well below its record of 113.880 million metric tons in 1999-00. India’s wheat production fell –0.1% yr/yr to 72.000 million metric tons, which was well below its record of 76.369 million metric tons. The world land area harvested with wheat in 2005-06 fell –0.6% yr/yr to 217.3 million hectares (1 hectare equals 10,000 square meters or 2.471 acres), remaining well above 209.5 million hectares in 2003-04, which was the smallest wheat harvest area since 1970-71. World wheat yield in 2005-06 fell –1.0% to 2.84 metric tons per hectare, falling back from the record high of 2.87 metric tons per hectare seen in 2004-05.
Wheat futures and options are traded on the Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires (MAT), Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Marche a Terme International de France (MATIF), Budapest Commodity Exchange (BCE), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT), the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) and the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). The Chicago Board of Trade’s wheat futures contract calls for the delivery of soft red wheat (No. 1 and 2), hard red winter wheat (No. 1 and 2), dark northern spring wheat (No. 1 and 2), No.1 northern spring at 3 cents/bushel premium, or No. 2 northern spring at par.
US wheat production in 2005-06 fell –2.8% yr/yr to 2.098 billion bushels, which was well below the record US wheat crop of 2.785 billion bushels seen in 1981-82. The US winter wheat crop in 2005 fell –0.4% yr/yr to 1.494 billion bushels, which was well below the record winter wheat crop of 2.097 billion bushels seen in 1981-82. US production of durum wheat in 2005 rose +3.4% yr/yr to 92.955 million bushels. US production of other spring wheat fell –2.7% yr/yr to 553.375 million bushels. The largest US producing states of winter wheat are Kansas with 25.1% of US production in 2005, Oklahoma with 8.6%, Washington with 8.5%, and Texas with 6.6%. US farmers planted 57.091 million acres of wheat in 2005, which was down –4.3% yr/yr and was the smallest wheat acreage since 1972. US wheat yield in 200506 was 42.0 bushels per acre, which was mildly below the record yield of 44.2 bushels per acre seen in 2003-04. Ending stocks for US wheat for 2005-06 are projected by the USDA at 542 million bushels, up +0.4% yr/yr from 540 million bushels in 2004-05.
Prices – Wheat prices on the CBOT nearest futures chart came into 2005 on a weak note after favorable growing conditions during summer 2004 caused prices to drop sharply in the latter half of 2004. Wheat prices showed some strength in early 2005 on short-covering and the hot and dry weather seen during early summer 2005, but then fell late in the year due to improved weather conditions towards the end of summer. The US wheat crop in 2005-06 fell slightly by –2.8% to 2.098 billion bushels from 2.158 billion bushels in 2004-05, but the crop was close to the 10-year average and was roughly in line with demand. The US carryover in 2005-06 rose just slightly by +0.4% to 542 million bushels, marking the fourth straight year in which the US wheat carry-over showed almost no change. Meanwhile, on the world stage, demand was slightly greater than supply and the world carry-over in 2005-06 fell by –3.6% to 144.700 million metric tons from 150.120 million metric tons in 200405. Winter wheat prices in early 2006 saw some support on lower than expected winter wheat acreage and a drought in the southern Plains. However, wheat prices were restrained due to competition from foreign wheat producers and from carry-over weakness from corn and soybeans. Supply – World wheat production in the 2005-06 mar-
300
Demand – World wheat utilization in 2005-06 rose +2.2% yr/yr to a new record high of 621.8 million metric tons. US consumption of wheat in 2005-06 rose +1.3% yr/yr to 1.188 billion bushels, which was well below the record of 1.381 billion bushels seen in 1998-99. The consumption breakdown shows that 77% of US wheat consumption in 2005-06 went for food, 17% for feed and residuals, and 6% for seed. Trade – World trade in wheat in 2005-06 fell –2.1% yr/ yr to 110.6 million metric tons from the record of 113.0 million metric tons seen in 2004-05. US exports of wheat in 2005-06 fell –5.9% yr/yr to 1.000 billion bushels from 1.062 billion bushels in 2004-05 and were well below the record of 1.771 billion bushels of exports seen in 1981-82. US imports of wheat in 2005-06 rose +13.3% to 80.0 million bushels and showed a further recovery from the 14-year low of 63.0 million bushels seen in 2003-04.
WHEAT World Production of Wheat Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Australia
Canada
China
European Union
India
Iran
Pakistan
Kazakhstan
Russia
Turkey
United States
World Total
15,900 15,740 13,300 16,400 16,230 15,500 12,300 14,500 16,000 12,100
22,925 19,224 21,465 24,757 22,108 24,299 10,132 26,132 22,600 24,000
29,801 24,280 24,082 26,941 26,519 20,568 16,198 23,552 25,860 26,800
110,570 123,289 109,726 113,880 99,640 93,873 90,290 86,490 91,950 97,000
98,506 94,181 103,085 114,741 124,197 113,553 124,830 106,878 136,773 122,845
62,097 69,350 66,350 70,780 76,369 69,680 71,810 65,100 72,060 72,000
11,000 10,000 12,000 8,500 8,000 9,500 12,450 13,500 14,000 14,500
7,700 8,950 4,700 11,200 9,100 12,700 12,600 11,000 9,950 11,000
16,907 16,650 18,694 17,854 21,079 19,023 18,226 19,192 19,000 21,000
34,900 44,200 27,000 31,000 34,450 46,900 50,550 34,100 45,300 47,600
16,000 16,000 18,000 16,500 18,000 15,500 16,800 16,800 18,500 18,000
61,980 67,534 69,327 62,475 60,641 53,001 43,705 63,814 58,738 57,280
582,609 609,958 589,960 585,813 581,500 581,131 567,689 554,593 626,641 616,427
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Supply and Demand of Wheat Crop Year
Yield
Production
World Trade
Utilization Total
Ending Stocks
Stocks as a % of Utilization
230.2 228.4 225.1 215.4 217.6 214.6 214.6 209.9 218.6 217.3
2.53 2.67 2.62 2.72 2.67 2.71 2.65 2.64 2.87 2.84
582.6 610.0 590.0 585.8 581.5 581.1 567.7 554.6 626.6 616.4
104.0 104.5 102.0 112.6 104.0 110.7 109.9 104.5 113.0 110.6
573.4 577.3 579.0 585.0 583.9 585.2 604.0 588.5 608.7 621.8
164.5 197.1 208.1 208.9 206.5 202.5 166.1 132.2 150.1 144.7
28.7 34.1 35.9 35.7 35.4 34.6 27.5 22.5 24.7 23.3
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041 2004-052 2005-063 1
Preliminary.
2
In Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Area Harvested
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Wheat in the United States -------------- Acreage Harvested -------------Crop Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
Planting Winter Spring All Intentions ------------------------------ 1,000 Acres ------------------------------
75,105 70,412 65,821 62,664 62,549 59,597 60,318 62,141 59,674 57,229
39,574 41,340 40,126 35,436 35,002 31,295 29,742 36,753 34,462 33,794
23,245 21,500 18,876 18,337 18,061 17,338 16,166 16,310 16,324 16,771
62,819 62,840 59,002 53,773 53,063 48,633 45,824 53,063 49,999 50,119
Average - All Yield Per Acre in Bushels
36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 42.0 40.2 35.0 44.2 43.2 42.0
------- Foreign Trade5 ------Domestic Value of Imports3 Exports2 Production $1,000 -- In Millions of Bushels --
9,782,238 8,286,741 6,780,623 5,593,989 5,782,107 5,440,217 5,637,416 7,929,039 7,283,324 7,140,357
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes flour milled from imported wheat. 3 Total wheat, flour & other products. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Supply and Distribution of Wheat in the United States Crop Year Beginning June 1
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062
1,001.5 1,040.4 1,045.7 1,086.5 1,062.0 962.3 850.2 1,158.3 1,062.7 1,000.0 4
Civilian only.
Per Capita4 ------- Consumption ------Flour Cereal ---------- In Pounds----------
92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 89.8 107.6 77.4 63.0 70.6 85.0 5
147.0 147.0 143.0 144.0 146.0 141.0 137.0 138.0 -------
4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 -------
Year beginning June.
In Millions of Bushels
-------------------------------------------- Supply -------------------------------------------- --------------------------------- Domestic Disappearance --------------------------------F eed & Total ----------- Stocks, June 1 ----------On Mills, ResDisappearTotal Total Farms Elevators3 idual5 ance Stocks Production Imports4 Supply F ood S eed Total Exports4
74.6 154.6 224.2 277.7 226.8 197.3 216.8 132.1 131.9 161.3
301.4 289.0 498.3 668.2 723.0 678.9 560.3 359.3 414.6 378.8
376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 876.2 777.1 491.4 546.4 540.1
2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,232.5 1,957.0 1,605.9 2,344.8 2,158.2 2,104.7
92.3 94.9 103.0 94.5 89.8 107.6 77.4 63.0 70.6 85.0
2,745.7 3,020.0 3,372.8 3,336.0 3,267.7 2,931.2 2,460.4 2,899.2 2,775.3 2,729.8
890.7 914.1 909.7 921.0 949.6 926.4 918.6 911.9 904.7 910.0
102.3 92.5 80.4 91.7 79.5 83.4 84.4 79.7 79.0 78.0
307.6 250.5 390.7 279.3 300.4 182.0 115.7 202.9 188.9 200.0
1,300.6 1,257.1 1,381.1 1,299.7 1,329.5 1,191.8 1,118.7 1,194.4 1,172.5 1,188.0
1,001.5 1,040.4 1,045.7 1,086.5 1,062.0 962.3 850.2 1,158.3 1,062.7 1,000.0
2,302.1 2,297.5 2,426.9 2,386.2 2,391.6 2,154.1 1,968.9 2,352.8 2,235.2 2,188.0
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Also warehouses and all off-farm storage not otherwise designated, including flour mills. 4 I mports & exports are for wheat, including flour & other products in terms of wheat. 5 Mostly feed use. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
1
301
WHEAT Stocks, Production and Exports of Wheat in the United States, by Class Year Beginning June 1
In Millions of Bushels
---------- Hard Spring ----------- ------------ Durum2 ------------- ---------- Hard Winter ----------- ------- Soft Red Winter -------- ------------- White -------------Stocks ProStocks ProStocks ProStocks ProStocks ProJune 1 duction Exports3 June 1 duction Exports3 June 1 duction Exports3 June 1 duction Exports3 June 1 duction Exports3
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
106 166 220 233 218 210 230 145 157 159
631 491 486 448 502 476 351 500 525 467
300 240 247 230 230 216 259 272 314 280
25 31 26 55 50 45 33 28 26 38
116 88 138 99 110 84 80 97 90 101
38 57 40 44 50 50 32 44 31 30
154 143 307 435 458 411 363 188 227 193
759 1,098 1,180 1,051 846 767 620 1,071 856 930
286 358 453 486 403 349 309 512 388 445
35 45 80 136 133 135 78 55 64 88
1 Preliminary. 2 I ncludes Red Durum. 3 I ncludes four made from U.S. wheat & shipments to territories. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
420 472 443 454 471 400 321 380 380 309
140 180 105 170 176 199 105 140 122 75
55 59 90 87 91 75 73 75 72 63
352 332 301 247 303 232 233 297 306 298
237 205 198 160 203 147 148 192 207 170
Source: Economic Research Service,
Seeded Acreage, Yield and Production of all Wheat in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
----------- Seeded Acreage -- 1,000 Acres ----------- ----- Yield Per Harvested Acre (Bushels) ----- ----------- Production (1,000,000 Bushels) ----------Other Other Other Winter Spring Durum All Winter Spring Durum All Winter Spring Durum All
51,445 47,985 46,449 43,331 43,393 41,078 41,766 45,384 43,350 40,433
Preliminary.
20,030 19,117 15,567 15,348 15,299 15,609 15,639 13,842 13,763 14,036
3,630 3,310 3,805 4,035 3,937 2,910 2,913 2,915 2,561 2,760
75,105 70,412 65,821 62,714 62,629 59,597 60,318 62,141 59,674 57,229
37.1 44.6 46.9 47.8 44.7 43.5 38.2 46.7 43.5 44.4
35.1 29.9 34.9 34.1 38.4 35.2 29.1 39.5 43.2 37.1
32.6 27.6 37.0 27.8 30.7 30.0 29.5 33.7 38.0 37.2
Year
Colorado
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
70,400 86,400 99,450 103,200 68,150 66,000 36,300 77,000 45,900 52,800
68,800 68,800 63,140 53,960 65,700 51,830 48,510 57,600 63,000 66,430
41,800 66,490 57,600 60,600 52,440 43,920 30,870 52,650 53,100 36,600
255,200 501,400 494,900 432,400 347,800 328,000 270,600 480,000 314,500 380,000
48,750 58,320 57,500 44,160 49,400 41,040 33,440 53,070 48,360 29,160
61,380 55,100 48,750 36,860 44,550 19,140 21,840 67,340 66,830 94,500
73,500 70,300 82,800 81,600 59,400 59,200 50,160 83,720 61,050 68,640
Preliminary.
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
302
691.7 548.2 528.5 503.1 556.6 512.0 388.9 531.4 568.9 504.5
116.1 87.8 138.1 99.3 109.8 83.6 80.0 96.6 89.9 101.1
2,277.4 2,481.5 2,547.3 2,299.0 2,232.5 1,957.0 1,605.9 2,344.8 2,158.2 2,104.7
In Thousands of Bushels Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Texas
Washington
Total
51,870 68,670 74,240 72,100 79,920 60,300 50,220 68,000 55,180 58,930
93,100 169,600 198,900 150,500 142,800 122,100 103,600 179,400 164,500 128,000
58,680 53,790 52,930 29,610 45,260 28,000 29,820 47,940 47,580 47,580
75,400 118,900 136,500 122,400 66,000 108,800 78,300 96,600 108,500 96,000
164,500 141,900 136,500 96,860 131,400 106,750 104,400 117,000 117,250 120,600
1,469,618 1,845,528 1,880,733 1,696,580 1,562,733 1,361,479 1,137,001 1,716,721 1,499,434 1,499,129
Source: Crop Reporting Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (CRB-USDA)
Official Winter Wheat Crop Production Reports in the United States Crop Year
1,469.6 1,845.5 1,880.7 1,696.6 1,562.7 1,361.5 1,137.0 1,716.7 1,499.4 1,499.1
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of Winter Wheat in the United States, by State
1
36.3 39.5 43.2 42.7 42.0 40.2 35.0 44.2 43.2 42.0
In Thousands of Bushels
May 1
June 1
July 1
August 1
September 1
Current December
Final
1,363,851 1,561,470 1,706,784 1,614,799 1,648,805 1,341,381 1,300,726 1,563,314 1,550,395 1,590,862
1,369,861 1,603,580 1,743,294 1,611,559 1,621,966 1,321,126 1,237,671 1,626,376 1,530,742 1,545,971
1,484,836 1,780,554 1,898,719 1,673,222 1,588,376 1,366,192 1,178,320 1,715,912 1,469,735 1,525,302
1,494,716 1,855,474 1,914,359 1,688,582 1,594,321 1,385,048 1,158,710 1,712,150 1,489,408 1,520,848
-----------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
1,477,058 1,845,528 1,880,733 1,696,580 1,561,723 1,361,479 1,137,001 1,716,721 1,499,434 1,499,129
Source: Crop Reporting Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (CRB-USDA)
WHEAT Production of All Spring Wheat in the United States, by State Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
14,760 8,010 15,120 7,275 8,075 7,917 8,928 11,500 9,603 7,900
Preliminary.
13,800 13,680 15,750 8,925 9,700 8,505 9,000 11,500 9,000 6,555
7,000 7,540 12,040 9,450 13,160 11,880 12,995 14,490 17,985 16,380
79,380 720 116,090 57,860 513 87,783 94,400 624 138,119 72,000 1,512 99,322 78,300 468 109,805 54,600 576 83,556 48,750 147 79,960 58,410 621 96,637 52,800 450 89,893 68,250 260 101,105
Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 Preliminary.
50,400 105,000 45,030 75,200 39,270 78,720 50,560 78,000 42,750 95,550 33,320 79,200 29,900 61,200 27,060 104,400 38,710 88,550 32,400 70,930
106,600 118,900 108,000 108,000 77,500 65,550 75,900 60,500 88,350 81,600
313,500 210,000 211,200 168,000 233,600 234,600 165,200 252,800 243,950 224,400
6,405 6,600 4,560 5,049 8,280 4,650 4,680 5,600 8,400 5,980
83,250 63,000 59,200 59,850 60,040 64,350 24,000 56,280 71,910 67,600
18,170 23,220 20,925 27,280 33,480 25,830 25,370 22,345 26,250 18,700
691,680 548,155 528,469 503,108 556,632 512,008 388,917 531,402 568,918 504,456
Source: Crop Reporting Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (CRB-USDA)
Grindings of Wheat by Mills in the United States
1
In Thousands of Bushels
-------------------------------- Durum Wheat -------------------------------- --------------------------------------------- Other Spring Wheat ---------------------------------------------MonNorth South Total MinneMonNorth South WashTotal Arizona California tana Dakota Dakota Durum Idaho sota tana Dakota Oregon Dakota ington Other
In Millions of Bushels (60 Pounds Each)
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total
73.6 76.4 ---------------------------------
77.4 75.8 224.7 234.0 244.7 230.2 230.3 231.8 224.8 228.6
75.1 78.4 ---------------------------------
82.7 82.7 ---------------------------------
73.7 75.3 238.6 242.2 247.7 238.7 224.4 224.2 222.1 222.4
71.3 74.8 ---------------------------------
69.6 -------------------------------------
66.9 215.5 213.5 225.6 223.8 217.0 215.8 210.9 212.8
70.3 -------------------------------------
73.2 -------------------------------------
72.5 216.6 228.0 226.8 221.3 217.6 217.4 212.3 212.2
72.2 -------------------------------------
878.6 895.5 904.9 928.7 937.5 903.6 888.0 879.1 871.9 902.2
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Wheat Stocks in the United States
In Millions of Bushels
------------------------ On Farms ------------------------ ------------------------- Off Farms -------------------------
--------------------------- Total Stocks ---------------------------
Year
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
220.6 320.8 399.9 471.2 424.7 384.8 338.5 236.3 257.9 304.7
74.6 154.6 224.2 277.7 226.8 197.3 216.8 132.1 131.9 161.3
824.5 794.4 885.7 888.1 808.4 696.9 580.2 687.3 790.6 721.4
584.2 604.0 680.2 647.4 623.4 517.9 384.8 491.9 531.0 513.0
602.9 501.1 766.6 979.2 991.8 953.6 871.3 670.3 762.7 679.7
301.4 289.0 498.3 668.2 723.0 678.9 560.3 359.3 414.6 378.8
899.7 1,282.0 1,499.6 1,557.0 1,544.3 1,459.0 1,170.8 1,351.7 1,147.8 1,201.9
634.7 1,015.2 1,215.5 1,236.3 1,182.7 1,105.6 935.1 1,028.4 899.3 916.5
823.5 821.8 1,166.6 1,450.4 1,416.5 1,338.4 1,209.8 906.6 1,020.6 984.4
376.0 443.6 722.5 945.9 949.7 876.2 777.1 491.4 546.4 540.1
1,724.2 2,076.3 2,385.3 2,445.0 2,352.7 2,155.8 1,751.0 2,039.0 1,938.4 1,923.3
1,218.8 1,619.2 1,895.7 1,883.7 1,806.1 1,623.5 1,319.9 1,520.3 1,430.3 1,429.5
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Wheat Supply and Distribution in Canada, Australia and Argentina
In Millions of Metric Tons
--------- Canada (Year Beginning Aug. 1) --------- --------- Australia (Year Beginning Oct. 1) --------- ------- Argentina (Year Beginning Dec. 1) -------------------- Supply ------------Crop Year
Stocks Aug. 1
New Crop
6.7 9.0 6.0 7.4 7.3 9.7 6.7 5.7 6.1 8.0
29.8 24.3 24.1 26.9 26.5 20.6 16.2 23.6 25.9 26.8
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051 2005-062 1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
------------- Supply -------------
Total -- Disappearance -- Stocks Supply Domestic Exports3 Oct. 1
36.5 33.3 30.1 34.4 33.8 30.2 22.9 29.3 31.9 34.8 3
8.2 7.3 8.1 8.1 7.0 7.6 8.2 7.6 9.2 9.2
I ncluding flour.
19.5 20.1 14.7 19.2 17.3 16.3 9.4 15.8 15.0 16.5
2.0 2.4 2.3 2.8 4.6 5.5 8.0 3.1 5.4 6.9
New Crop
22.9 19.2 21.5 24.8 22.1 24.3 10.1 26.1 22.6 24.0
------------ Supply -------------
Total -- Disappearance -Supply Domestic Exports3
24.9 21.6 23.8 27.6 26.7 29.8 18.2 29.3 28.0 30.9
3.3 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.6
19.2 15.3 16.5 17.8 15.9 16.4 9.1 18.0 14.7 16.5
Stocks D e c. 1
New Crop
.2 1.0 .8 .7 .6 .6 1.1 1.5 1.4 .7
15.9 15.7 13.3 16.4 16.2 15.5 12.3 14.5 16.0 12.1
Total -- Disappearance -Supply Domestic Exports3
16.1 16.7 14.1 17.1 16.8 16.1 13.4 16.0 17.4 12.8
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
10.2 11.2 8.6 11.6 11.3 10.1 6.8 9.4 11.5 7.0
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
303
WHEAT Quarterly Supply and Disappearance of Wheat in the United States Crop Year Beginning June 1
1995-6 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 1996-7 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 1997-8 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 1998-9 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 1999-00 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 2000-1 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 2001-2 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 2002-03 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 2003-04 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 2004-05 1 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May 2005-062 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. 1 5
In Millions of Bushels
---------------------------------- Disappearance ---------------------------------Total ----------- Ending Stocks ----------------------------------- Supply ------------------------- ------------------ Domestic Use ------------------Beginning D i sa p Total F eed & Gov't Privately Total Stocks Production Imports3 Supply F ood Seed Residual6 Owned4 Owned5 Stocks Total Exports3 pearance
506.6 506.6 1,881.1 1,338.3 823.5 376.0 376.0 1,724.2 1,218.8 821.8 443.6 443.6 2,076.3 1,619.2 1,166.6 722.5 722.5 2,385.3 1,895.7 1,450.4 945.9 945.9 2,445.0 1,885.6 1,415.3 949.7 949.7 2,352.7 1,806.1 1,338.4 876.2 876.2 2,155.8 1,623.5 1,209.8 777.1 777.1 1,749.0 1,319.9 906.6 491.4 491.4 2,039.0 1,520.3 1,020.6 546.0 546.0 1,938.0 1,430.0 981.0 2,105.0
2,182.6 2,182.6 ------------2,277.4 2,277.4 ------------2,481.5 2,481.5 ------------2,547.3 2,547.3 ------------2,299.0 2,299.0 ------------2,228.2 2,228.2 ------------1,947.5 1,947.5 ------------1,605.9 1,605.9 ------------2,344.8 2,344.8 ------------2,158.0 2,158.0 ------------2,105.0 2,105.0 ----
67.9 22.7 16.3 11.8 17.2 92.3 14.9 20.7 27.1 29.7 94.9 22.7 22.8 23.8 25.7 103.0 24.4 23.9 27.7 27.0 94.5 30.6 19.5 19.4 25.0 89.8 20.4 25.1 21.4 22.9 107.6 25.7 29.0 27.6 25.2 77.4 26.7 23.1 12.7 14.9 63.1 15.7 17.8 12.9 16.7 71.0 17.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 78.0 19.0 20.0
2,757.1 2,711.9 1,897.4 1,350.0 840.7 2,745.7 2,668.3 1,744.9 1,245.9 851.6 3,020.0 2,947.8 2,099.1 1,643.0 1,192.2 3,372.8 3,294.2 2,409.2 1,923.4 1,477.4 3,339.4 3,275.5 2,464.5 1,905.1 1,440.3 3,267.7 3,198.3 2,377.8 1,827.5 1,361.3 2,931.2 2,849.3 2,184.9 1,651.0 1,235.0 2,460.4 2,409.6 1,772.1 1,332.6 921.6 2,899.3 2,851.9 2,056.7 1,533.2 1,037.3 2,775.0 2,722.0 1,957.0 1,448.0 1,001.0 4,288.0 2,663.0 1,944.0
882.9 215.3 232.2 215.8 219.6 890.7 223.7 233.8 212.7 220.5 914.1 227.9 238.7 219.2 228.3 909.7 225.7 240.7 213.2 230.1 924.7 230.5 241.1 220.9 232.2 949.6 238.8 253.0 228.2 229.7 926.4 233.8 245.1 221.1 226.4 918.6 233.2 237.8 218.9 228.4 906.6 230.5 239.6 213.4 223.1 904.0 227.0 236.0 216.0 225.0 938.0 229.0 240.0
104.1 8.0 64.9 3.0 28.2 102.3 8.7 59.9 1.8 31.8 92.5 3.1 58.6 2.1 28.7 80.5 1.0 54.9 1.4 23.2 91.6 6.4 54.6 2.3 28.4 79.5 1.1 49.8 3.5 25.2 83.4 3.5 51.6 2.0 26.3 84.4 2.7 54.6 3.1 23.9 79.6 2.1 53.3 2.2 22.0 78.0 4.0 48.0 2.0 24.0 106.0 2.0 51.0
153.0 305.0 -98.7 13.3 -66.5 307.6 377.5 -76.0 30.3 -24.2 250.5 352.2 -113.4 .3 11.4 542.1 424.9 73.8 11.6 31.8 283.8 270.0 -8.0 30.7 -8.8 300.4 317.9 -24.5 11.4 -4.5 182.0 237.9 -23.1 -6.6 -26.2 115.7 184.5 -74.7 14.1 -8.2 207.1 315.3 -61.6 4.3 -50.9 189.0 265.0 -57.0 8.0 -27.0 404.0 266.0 -64.0
1,139.9 528.3 198.3 232.1 181.3 1,300.6 610.0 217.8 244.7 228.1 1,257.1 583.2 183.9 221.6 268.4 1,532.4 651.6 369.5 226.2 285.1 1,300.1 506.9 287.7 253.9 251.8 1,329.5 557.8 278.4 243.1 250.3 1,191.8 475.2 273.6 216.5 226.4 1,118.7 420.4 217.7 236.1 244.5 1,193.3 547.9 231.3 219.9 194.2 1,171.0 496.0 227.0 226.0 222.0 1,448.0 497.0 227.0
1,241.1 302.5 360.8 294.5 283.4 1,001.5 334.1 308.3 179.3 179.8 1,040.4 288.2 296.0 254.9 201.3 1,042.2 257.3 291.8 246.8 246.3 1,089.5 323.6 291.3 235.9 238.8 1,062.0 287.8 293.3 246.1 234.8 962.3 218.3 287.8 224.7 231.5 850.2 240.2 234.5 189.8 185.7 1,159.4 265.0 305.1 292.7 296.6 1,063.0 287.0 300.0 237.0 239.0 1,062.0 243.0 288.0
2,381.1 830.8 559.1 526.6 464.6 2,302.1 944.1 526.1 424.1 407.9 2,297.5 871.4 479.9 476.4 469.8 2,574.6 908.9 661.2 473.0 531.5 2,389.6 830.5 579.0 489.8 490.6 2,391.6 845.6 571.6 489.1 485.1 2,154.1 693.5 561.4 441.2 457.9 1,968.9 660.7 454.2 425.9 430.2 2,352.7 812.9 536.4 512.6 490.8 2,234.0 783.0 527.0 463.0 461.0 2,510.0 740.0 515.0
118.2 141.5 141.2 137.5 118.2 93.0 109.5 96.1 95.3 93.0 94.2 93.2 93.1 93.0 94.2 127.9 99.8 126.6 124.2 127.9 103.9 132.2 115.0 108.7 103.9 97.0 108.9 102.9 104.4 97.0 99.0 97.7 96.9 96.9 99.0 66.4 91.4 80.9 74.1 66.4 60.9 60.3 60.4 60.0 60.9
257.8 1,739.6 1,197.1 686.0 257.8 350.6 1,614.7 1,122.7 726.5 350.6 628.3 1,983.1 1,526.1 1,073.6 628.3 818.0 2,285.5 1,769.1 1,326.2 818.0 845.8 2,312.8 1,770.6 1,306.6 845.8 779.2 2,243.8 1,703.2 1,234.0 779.2 678.1 2,058.1 1,526.6 1,112.9 678.1 425.0 1,657.6 1,239.0 832.5 425.0 485.5 1,978.7 1,459.6 960.6 485.5
376.0 1,881.1 1,338.3 823.5 376.0 443.6 1,724.2 1,218.8 821.8 443.6 722.5 2,076.3 1,619.2 1,166.6 722.5 945.9 2,385.3 1,895.7 1,450.4 945.9 949.7 2,445.0 1,885.6 1,416.5 949.7 876.2 2,352.7 1,806.1 1,338.4 876.2 777.1 2,155.8 1,623.5 1,209.8 777.1 491.4 1,749.0 1,319.9 906.6 491.4 546.4 2,039.0 1,520.3 1,020.6 546.4 540.0 1,938.0 1,430.0 984.0 540.0 1,923.0 1,923.0 1,430.0
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 I mports & exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 4 Uncommitted, Government only. I ncludes total loans. 6 I ncludes alcoholic beverages. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
304
WHEAT Wheat Government Loan Program Data in the United States
Loan Rates (Cents Per Bushel)
----------------- Farm Loan Prices ------------------
Crop Year Beginning June 1
National Average3
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-03 2003-04 2004-051
258 258 258 258 258 280 280 275
----------------- Stocks Ending May 31 ----------------Acquired ---- Outstanding ---Central & Total by C C C Placed FarmerSouthern Northern CCC Under Under % of Owned Total CCC Pacific Plains Plains Corn Belt Stocks Loan Production Program Stocks Loans Reserve "Free" (Spring Northwest (Hard Target (Soft Red (White) ----------------------------------------- In Millions of Bushels ----------------------------------------Winter) & Durum) Winter) Rate4
NA NA NA NA NA 386 386 392
253 253 253 253 NA NA NA NA
257 257 257 257 NA NA NA NA
258 258 258 258 NA NA NA NA
271 271 271 271 NA NA NA NA
264 363 154 181 197 120 186
10.6 14.2 6.7 8.1 9.9 7.5 7.9
0 0 0 0 0 2 2
722 946 950 876 777 491 546 540
94 128 104 97 99 66 61 54
134 140 62 42 78 51 45
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
629 818 846 779 678 425 485 486
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 The national average loan rate at the farm as a percentage of the parity-priced wheat at the beginning of the marketing year. 4 1996-97 through 2001-02 marketing years, target prices not applicable. NA = Not avaliable. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
1
Exports of Wheat (Only)2 from the United States Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
July
Aug.
65,654 92,465 67,372 86,605 90,594 110,814 88,581 82,739 59,190 64,911 63,219 78,013 54,665 88,042 80,599 97,962 64,553 90,760
June
123,141 96,664 107,168 104,944 89,582 92,345 115,869 103,222 83,173
Preliminary.
2
Grains.
Sept.
In Thousands of Bushels
Oct.
Nov.
119,029 89,331 90,507 109,168 91,438 96,154 113,785 82,716 86,941 94,598 73,606 78,866 125,312 101,168 119,965 92,634 102,761 103,423
79,528 81,913 89,211 86,034 99,800 75,678 76,222 83,947 77,164
Jan.
F eb.
80,906 97,090 96,486 73,017 84,460 71,763 94,705 60,743 81,369 72,114 69,485 62,769 79,811 109,607 81,718 77,349
D e c.
68,972 63,794 64,198 85,797 63,446 48,618 94,480 73,131
Apr.
May
Total
63,914 64,623 65,522 86,066 68,836 73,815 71,502 83,157 78,070 84,211 65,990 55,764 96,685 102,588 76,612 81,885
Mar.
68,359 85,057 87,789 68,908 58,449 59,438 91,917 75,575
1,013,012 1,002,171 1,036,240 1,023,611 932,681 823,791 1,136,366 1,044,599 1,043,668
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
United States Wheat and Wheat Flour Imports and Exports
In Thousands of Bushels
------------------------------------ Imports ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- Exports -----------------------------------------------------Crop Year Beginning June 1
--------- Wheat --------Unfit for Flour & Human Suitable Grain Products2 Confor Milling sumption --- Wheat Equivalent ---
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-041
71,727 73,245 79,766 72,408 66,313 82,615 52,889 41,662
-------------------------
71,727 73,245 79,768 72,407 66,313 82,615 49,741 37,181
Foreign Donations P.L. 480 Sec. 416
A i d3
CCC Export Credit
Total Concessional
Export Exhancement Programs
Total U.S. Wheat Exports
Total ------------------------------------- In Thousands of Metric Tons -------------------------------------
20,605 21,556 23,219 22,104 23,511 24,935 27,633 25,862
92,333 94,801 102,987 94,512 89,824 107,551 77,374 63,043
1,009 1,453 556 674 1,294 1,093 1,475 1,211
0 0 4,682 2,635 1,638 875 213 20
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1,155 1,727 5,334 3,436 3,109 2,035 2,081 1,628
4,844 5,460 3,621 3,691 4,026 4,614 3,633 3,578
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24,526 25,791 28,806 27,838 25,275 25,411 24,395 31,157
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes macaroni, semolina & similar products. 3 Shipment mostly under the Commodity I mport Program, financed with foreign aid funds. NA = Not available. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Comparative Average Cash Wheat Prices
Crop Year Beginning June 1
--- Minneapolis --No. 1 No. 1 Hard Red No. 1 Dark No. 2 No. 2 Ordinary Hard Received Soft Red Protein, Soft Red Northern Spring Amber Winter, by U.S. Winter, Kansas 14% Durum City St. Louis Farmers Chicago
1998-99 2.65 1999-00 2.48 2000-01 2.62 2001-02 2.78 2002-03 3.56 2003-04 3.40 2004-05 3.40 2005-061 3.35-3.45 1
In Dollars Per Bushel
Preliminary.
2
2.46 2.19 2.39 2.69 3.40 3.66 3.01 3.02
Calendar year.
3.08 2.87 3.30 3.25 4.22 4.03 3.99 4.26
2.40 2.39 2.39 2.80 3.50 3.76 3.37 3.09
3.83 3.65 3.62 3.61 4.47 4.39 4.66 4.97
NA = Not available.
4.06 4.22 4.59 4.99 4.25 5.31 NQ NQ
-------- Export Prices2 (U.S. $ Per Metric Ton) -------No. 2 No. 1 Western Soft White White, Pacific Portland, Oregon Northwest
3.02 3.02 2.99 3.56 3.95 3.95 3.93 3.54
2.64 2.72 2.72 3.67 4.58 4.24 4.04 4.17
Canada Aust- Vancouver No. 2 U.S. Gulf No. 1 Argentina ralian Soft No. 2 CWRS White, Standard Hard F.O.B. 13 1/2% Wheat Toledo Winter B.A.
2.27 1.94 2.98 2.67 3.34 3.59 3.10 3.07
154 143 145 157 185 182 178
163 152 149 149 194 188 206
120 114 118 121 158 161 124
126 112 114 125 160 156 151 161
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Rotterdam C.I.F. U.S. No. 2 Hard Winter
181 NA 163 161 189 204 201
305
WHEAT
-----
Cents Per Bushel Cash, Chicago (1862 - 1900) No. 2 Red, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - Mar. 1982) No. 2 Soft, Red, St. Louis (Apr. 1982 - date)
Average Price of No. 2 Soft Red Winter (30 Days) Wheat in Chicago
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
4.94 3.38 2.72 2.20 2.41 2.40 2.81 3.11 3.46 3.09
4.64 3.30 2.51 1.94 2.14 2.56 3.19 3.23 3.26 3.22
4.49 3.52 2.39 2.09 2.08 2.57 3.42 3.63 2.92 3.04
4.33 3.49 2.32 2.12 2.13 2.57 3.92 3.46 2.97 2.93
3.96 3.51 2.56 1.98 2.36 2.68 3.89 3.42 2.82 2.99
3.57 3.44 2.58 1.96 2.42 2.75 3.85 3.87 2.79 2.83
3.54 3.31 2.49 2.12 2.47 2.83 3.53 3.92 2.88 2.98
3.47 3.27 2.46 2.34 2.57 2.96 3.32 3.90 2.93 3.11
3.29 3.26 2.28 2.38 2.49 2.74 3.44 3.84 2.95
3.49 3.25 2.63 2.34 2.56 2.76 3.14 3.85 3.28
3.77 2.91 2.31 2.30 2.52 2.75 3.08 3.92 2.92
3.57 2.87 2.24 2.45 2.51 2.73 3.25 3.73 2.96
3.92 3.29 2.46 2.19 2.39 2.69 3.40 3.66 3.01 3.02
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price1 Received by Farmers for Wheat in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-062
5.25 3.52 2.77 2.50 2.50 2.74 2.92 3.08 3.55 3.23
4.73 3.23 2.56 2.22 2.32 2.70 3.21 2.95 3.37 3.20
4.58 3.56 2.39 2.53 2.41 2.73 3.63 3.35 3.27 3.24
4.37 3.67 2.41 2.58 2.44 2.85 4.21 3.39 3.36 3.35
4.18 3.55 2.79 2.57 2.68 2.87 4.38 3.44 3.43 3.43
4.14 3.50 2.97 2.66 2.83 2.87 4.25 3.61 3.46 3.47
4.06 3.45 2.87 2.52 2.87 2.88 4.06 3.68 3.40 3.54
4.03 3.33 2.80 2.51 2.85 2.87 3.89 3.68 3.43 3.52
3.88 3.27 2.74 2.54 2.83 2.83 3.70 3.77 3.36 3.66
3.93 3.32 2.65 2.59 2.87 2.87 3.55 3.83 3.41
4.11 3.15 2.62 2.57 2.86 2.83 3.37 3.88 3.35
4.09 3.06 2.53 2.59 2.98 2.81 3.33 3.82 3.31
4.28 3.38 2.68 2.53 2.70 2.82 3.71 3.54 3.39 3.40
1
I ncludes an allowance for unredeemed loans and purchases.
306
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
WHEAT Average Price of No. 1 Hard Red Winter (Ordinary Protein) Wheat in Kansas City
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
6.12 4.08 3.16 2.93 3.07 3.32 3.55 3.63 4.13 3.87
5.34 3.57 3.02 2.68 2.97 3.20 3.92 3.34 3.97 3.83
5.01 3.84 2.74 2.85 2.89 3.15 4.29 3.87 3.73 3.96
4.70 3.86 2.81 2.92 3.13 3.18 5.04 3.74 4.01 4.30
4.76 3.88 3.30 2.80 3.41 3.28 5.10 3.79 3.95 4.57
4.78 3.87 3.42 2.89 3.45 3.37 4.76 4.21 4.22 4.53
4.70 3.72 3.31 2.81 3.47 3.26 4.40 4.31 4.22 4.52
4.61 3.61 3.27 2.90 3.54 3.29 4.06 4.32 4.14 4.46
4.52 3.64 3.05 2.94 3.35 3.25 4.08 4.25 4.00
4.58 3.61 3.02 2.91 3.45 3.23 3.80 4.30 4.00
4.78 3.39 2.94 2.84 3.41 3.24 3.79 4.35 3.76
4.61 3.41 2.89 2.95 3.49 3.21 3.87 4.28 3.80
4.88 3.71 3.08 2.87 3.30 3.25 4.22 4.03 3.99 4.26
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price of No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (14% Protein) Wheat in Minneapolis
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
6.73 4.44 4.01 3.73 3.78 3.81 3.64 4.12 4.56 5.03
6.04 4.36 3.89 3.68 3.50 3.72 4.03 4.00 4.31 4.71
5.29 4.49 3.58 3.58 3.29 3.54 4.37 4.15 4.12 4.83
4.63 4.36 3.53 3.55 3.17 3.52 5.24 4.03 4.68 4.80
4.69 4.35 4.03 3.70 3.69 3.71 5.20 4.31 4.87 5.11
4.64 4.42 4.15 3.78 3.77 3.69 4.99 4.59 5.14 5.11
4.51 4.27 3.97 3.64 3.52 3.59 4.47 4.43 4.93 5.28
4.62 4.12 3.92 3.37 3.79 3.55 4.34 4.44 5.01 4.87
4.45 4.15 3.78 3.59 3.68 3.51 4.52 4.64 4.13
4.62 4.26 3.79 3.65 3.63 3.51 4.36 4.63 4.79
4.78 4.29 3.65 3.69 3.73 3.55 4.22 4.69 4.69
4.58 4.24 3.61 3.80 3.88 3.59 4.20 4.69 4.69
4.97 4.31 3.83 3.65 3.62 3.61 4.47 4.39 4.66 4.97
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Farm Prices of Winter Wheat in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
2.68 2.32 2.43 2.68 2.90 2.94 3.46 3.15
2.47 2.12 2.23 2.67 3.19 2.89 3.31 3.15
2.25 2.35 2.31 2.71 3.63 3.28 3.19 3.16
2.29 2.46 2.37 2.81 4.15 3.31 3.26 3.28
2.66 2.47 2.63 2.82 4.32 3.37 3.34 3.33
2.76 2.42 2.70 2.82 4.18 3.56 3.39 3.29
2.68 2.27 2.76 2.78 3.87 3.62 3.34 3.46
2.70 2.32 2.77 2.81 3.66 3.66 3.28 3.45
2.55 2.37 2.74 2.75 3.52 3.67 3.27 3.67
2.53 2.37 2.85 2.81 3.30 3.76 3.32
2.48 2.32 2.77 2.75 3.19 3.79 3.27
2.34 2.44 2.94 2.73 3.19 3.72 3.23
2.53 2.35 2.63 2.76 3.59 3.46 3.31 3.33
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Farm Prices of Durum Wheat in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
3.98 2.93 2.71 3.37 3.41 3.99 4.35 3.67
3.39 2.89 2.90 2.74 3.44 3.85 4.09 3.71
3.23 2.76 2.33 2.38 3.54 3.78 3.86 3.39
3.03 2.29 2.32 3.02 4.18 3.95 3.89 3.40
3.04 2.30 2.42 2.91 4.43 3.89 3.87 3.40
3.08 2.64 2.97 3.04 4.52 3.95 3.79 3.25
3.05 2.96 3.03 3.41 4.26 3.95 3.67 3.39
3.20 2.90 2.94 3.44 4.23 3.96 3.64 3.29
2.84 2.88 2.60 3.49 4.28 4.08 3.72 3.33
2.82 2.63 2.40 3.33 4.14 4.14 3.67
2.80 2.89 2.52 3.33 3.93 4.19 3.63
2.84 3.02 2.53 3.41 3.99 4.21 3.67
3.11 2.76 2.64 3.16 4.03 4.00 3.82 3.43
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Farm Prices of Other Spring Wheat in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061
3.22 3.01 2.90 3.03 2.98 3.45 3.83 3.53
3.08 2.93 2.74 2.78 3.31 3.31 3.55 3.45
2.69 2.86 2.59 2.84 3.66 3.42 3.38 3.43
2.62 2.86 2.59 2.87 4.30 3.42 3.48 3.50
3.04 2.79 2.80 2.96 4.45 3.53 3.50 3.62
3.23 2.94 2.97 2.91 4.26 3.68 3.57 3.73
3.19 2.87 2.98 2.96 4.15 3.72 3.48 3.69
3.12 2.82 2.96 2.88 4.03 3.67 3.61 3.69
3.09 2.82 2.99 2.86 3.82 3.84 3.49 3.70
3.00 2.85 2.99 2.90 3.72 3.90 3.51
2.95 2.89 3.05 2.91 3.48 3.94 3.39
2.92 2.92 3.13 2.91 3.55 4.01 3.37
3.01 2.88 2.89 2.90 3.81 3.66 3.51 3.59
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
307
WHEAT
Average Open Interest of Wheat Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
102,718 63,388 96,870 119,096 127,419 145,802 118,192 92,679 130,101 201,297
104,807 71,304 99,103 131,961 135,316 146,927 118,484 99,882 137,459 223,108
91,378 76,747 97,585 118,503 123,980 137,377 112,469 95,464 141,239 218,153
98,260 85,516 114,193 117,905 128,462 138,876 112,870 99,500 155,383 208,149
93,378 84,721 115,199 111,541 130,938 134,051 96,050 97,750 127,086 207,407
81,211 83,675 116,008 117,075 133,527 151,951 98,047 96,230 135,322 223,014
69,222 92,815 121,794 120,365 139,194 142,399 118,041 92,484 154,623 239,219
66,128 105,320 127,240 129,748 144,953 143,574 131,303 119,817 166,422 256,533
65,561 104,587 125,747 128,403 141,803 136,514 129,913 110,703 154,431 276,741
65,639 108,480 131,322 135,884 150,592 126,772 114,544 109,449 156,290 297,319
60,810 101,089 130,186 140,798 153,287 113,456 101,354 125,335 172,064 301,838
58,533 90,386 116,249 124,063 134,997 104,975 82,934 120,376 182,402 298,523
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of Wheat Futures in Chicago Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
628,340 510,138 312,680 373,411 363,511 473,114 426,524 597,448 467,050 691,068 551,756 595,312 602,956 593,112 438,021 526,001 656,879 771,699 612,980 1,053,567
455,981 368,547 452,186 710,375 522,394 536,141 501,142 411,017 783,139 827,814
660,722 567,099 514,557 559,211 490,694 579,992 563,072 496,770 786,167 937,548
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
308
May
June
531,979 512,883 422,935 469,158 432,167 601,149 444,696 674,580 627,722 759,371 537,836 720,350 419,272 689,807 638,590 661,840 606,051 786,542 694,695 1,088,042
In Contracts Aug.
Sept.
452,690 345,626 470,992 493,225 401,508 490,242 523,516 665,897 461,068 572,879 695,339 600,341 586,449 651,607 585,073 689,593 501,733 747,393 690,345 1,024,773
July
305,448 401,277 475,766 536,014 388,237 385,930 682,906 536,452 520,923 659,963
Nov.
D e c.
Total
362,047 359,005 405,978 432,621 543,680 539,488 437,689 613,633 466,328 596,581 629,479 614,734 609,435 594,373 778,863 739,791 478,674 913,669 717,423 1,164,543
Oct.
261,108 340,722 394,201 380,442 364,139 354,331 378,760 465,405 402,286 642,408
5,385,967 5,058,645 5,681,569 6,570,025 6,407,531 6,801,541 6,872,891 6,967,416 7,955,155 10,114,101
WHEAT Commercial Stocks of Domestic Wheat1 in the United States, on First of Month Year
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
In Millions of Bushels
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
86.3 80.1 209.8 248.6 285.5 271.0 193.9 133.3 118.3 127.5
112.9 186.3 265.0 294.9 310.3 296.6 207.7 171.9 147.6 138.6
128.0 235.2 314.9 335.8 335.3 318.7 237.2 212.0 174.3 159.9
145.3 268.1 325.6 354.0 335.5 321.9 241.0 226.3 173.5 163.5
117.2 258.1 307.3 334.6 306.2 291.9 237.7 220.7 161.6 158.5
94.9 231.4 291.3 301.5 286.6 251.8 218.8 198.1 137.8 147.8
89.0 196.8 272.9 277.4 263.7 224.5 195.1 145.0 129.8 137.9
80.4 178.1 265.7 273.7 251.7 224.6 179.7 126.3 122.5 130.9
77.0 170.6 256.8 267.8 243.2 217.2 158.3 113.1 113.4 128.8
75.6 158.0 251.5 266.3 243.7 195.6 133.1 94.0 103.8
68.1 146.4 236.7 247.6 224.5 177.3 107.2 89.6 92.2
64.6 145.7 218.3 240.3 221.0 176.0 93.8 85.4 88.8
Domestic wheat in storage in public and private elevators in 39 markets and wheat afloat in vessels or barges at lake and seaboard ports, the first Saturday of the month. Source: Livestock Division, U.S. Department of Agriculture (LD-USDA)
1
Stocks of Wheat Flour Held by Mills in the United States
In Thousands of Sacks -- 100 Pounds
Year
Jan. 1
April 1
July 1
Oct. 1
Year
Jan. 1
April 1
July 1
Oct. 1
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
5,611 7,060 6,869 6,671 6,343 7,544
5,904 6,496 6,927 6,040 6,245 5,920
5,834 6,312 6,400 5,820 6,210 5,697
6,020 6,582 6,350 6,330 7,345 4,265
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
5,099 5,241 5,377 4,265 4,764 5,085
5,217 5,506 5,164 4,707 4,666 4,805
5,062 5,178 4,632 4,622 4,700 5,101
5,244 5,393 4,184 4,554 4,868 5,256
1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Producer Price Index of Wheat Flour (Spring2) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
130.4 119.4 106.8 104.8 99.9 104.7 109.6 119.4 123.5 128.5
138.0 119.3 108.1 102.7 99.9 105.1 109.6 121.6 125.1 130.4
136.6 116.6 111.5 105.0 100.2 106.2 110.6 120.2 123.9 130.8
137.6 121.8 110.1 100.5 99.4 105.7 106.5 120.3 124.0 127.6
160.1 120.8 109.9 102.2 100.1 106.9 108.2 122.6 127.6 129.6
146.8 117.4 106.4 102.7 101.7 108.2 108.8 121.6 126.4 130.8
138.0 112.1 105.5 100.7 100.2 107.9 112.6 119.2 125.2 130.3
127.0 113.5 101.8 103.5 100.4 106.8 115.5 122.2 121.0 129.7
121.5 115.1 100.9 101.4 101.2 107.4 120.9 120.4 128.5 130.5
125.7 112.6 106.6 99.8 105.2 110.0 123.0 117.2 127.2 131.4
121.7 111.5 107.8 101.4 103.6 109.5 119.3 121.1 130.2 134.1
121.4 111.1 104.8 96.8 104.4 108.8 116.6 122.4 128.5 131.6
133.7 115.9 106.7 101.8 101.4 107.3 113.4 120.7 125.9 130.4
Preliminary.
2
Standard patent.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS) (0212-0301)
World Wheat Flour Production (Monthly Average) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 20052 1
June 1983 = 100
Jan.
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia
France
Germany
Hungary
India
Ja p a n
Kazakhstan
Rep. of Korea
Mexico
Poland
Russia
Turkey
United Kingdom
123.8 129.7 146.8 154.8 NA NA NA NA NA NA
450.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
394.2 404.8 407.5 423.6 405.5 403.1 415.3 424.4 427.3 408.9
75.1 77.7 69.5 69.1 73.5 72.4 67.6 70.7 67.6 72.3
400.0 412.5 302.1 196.6 202.5 197.2 211.6 234.1 239.9 211.6
389.6 388.1 382.0 386.5 383.0 387.2 389.4 391.0 390.1 382.0
132.7 127.3 128.5 104.9 120.8 116.5 143.4 137.3 138.5 178.7
141.2 145.9 143.5 152.8 155.9 142.8 151.2 149.3 157.5 152.4
215.9 216.0 213.2 204.8 206.0 221.1 218.1 218.6 217.6 213.0
164.1 175.3 172.1 125.0 125.4 126.8 135.2 143.1 135.2 129.4
309.7 361.9 872.7 899.1 864.0 866.6 794.3 821.3 799.5 429.9
132.1 159.1 152.7 156.6 162.0 145.2 139.6 159.8 178.4 181.7
371.0 369.0 377.0 NA 374.0 374.0 368.0 364.0 369.0 354.5
2
Estimate. NA = Not available.
Source: United Nations (UN)
309
WHEAT Production of Wheat Flour in the United States Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
Preliminary.
In Millions of Sacks (100 Pounds Each)
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total
34.0 ---------------------------------
34.3 100.2 104.2 108.8 102.1 102.1 103.1 100.9 102.7
35.1 ---------------------------------
37.2 ---------------------------------
33.8 106.5 108.2 109.7 105.8 100.3 100.5 99.7 99.6
33.5 ---------------------------------
-------------------------------------
96.0 96.1 101.1 99.4 96.0 95.9 95.7 95.8
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------
96.2 103.5 101.6 97.2 96.3 96.8 95.8 95.0
-------------------------------------
400.1 406.3 415.2 415.1 400.2 395.0 395.1 391.4 404.7
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
United States Wheat Flour Exports (Grain Equivalent2) Year
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-061 1
In Thousands of Bushels
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Total
1,803 1,971 4,160 3,620 1,412 1,474 824 742 859
2,900 1,740 3,638 3,805 661 1,547 1,074 1,220 686
1,621 2,027 2,586 1,623 1,990 753 3,444 885 839
3,101 2,914 6,503 3,174 1,005 1,373 1,087 770 720
2,524 3,812 4,576 4,165 3,226 2,437 765 834 840
1,634 2,354 2,332 2,332 2,534 2,854 1,295 1,005 871
3,118 6,838 3,023 2,741 2,479 4,645 1,673 1,347
1,426 2,551 2,924 2,236 2,207 1,049 1,789 955
2,725 3,341 6,108 2,365 3,294 884 1,342 617
1,309 4,126 2,615 2,200 2,301 1,146 1,020 756
1,269 3,105 3,193 3,868 2,802 1,083 732 722
963 1,948 1,286 2,163 2,759 541 1,386 781
25,393 36,728 42,944 34,292 26,670 19,786 16,431 10,634 9,630
Preliminary.
2
I ncludes meal, groats and durum.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Supply and Distribution of Wheat Flour in the United States
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
Wheat Ground - 1,000 Bu. -
885,843 902,532 917,797 944,868 914,036 889,412 889,188 876,047 876,076
Domestic Flour & ---------- Exports ---------DisappearProduct Total Millfeed Flour Flour Products ance Imports Supply Production Production2 - 1,000 Tons - -------------------------------------------------- In 1,000 Cw t. --------------------------------------------------
6,886 7,301 7,040 7,374 7,273 6,893 7,029 6,764 6,784
404,143 403,880 411,968 421,270 404,521 394,700 396,215 393,925 393,129
8,684 9,830 9,295 9,666 10,130 11,287 11,241 10,717
412,827 413,625 416,354 430,936 414,651 405,987 407,456 400,582
11,038 12,574 21,297 16,005 10,507 9,226 5,768 5,107
1,167 1,353 1,633 1,693 1,695 2,683 3,953 4,635
Total Population July 1 - Millions -
Per Capita Disappearance - P ounds -
272.8 276.0 279.3 282.4 285.4 288.2 291.1 293.9
146.9 145.9 142.6 146.3 141.0 136.7 136.6 133.0
400,622 394,817 393,377 413,238 402,449 394,077 397,734 390,840
Preliminary. 2 Commercial production of wheat flour, whole wheat, industrial and durum flour and farina reported by Bureau of Census. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Wheat and Flour -- Price Relationships at Milling Centers in the United States
In Dollars
-------------------------------------- At Kansas City ---------------------------------------
--------------------------------------- At Minneapolis ---------------------------------------
------------------------ Wholesale Price of -----------------------Cost of Wheat By-Products ------- Total Products ------to Produce Bakery Flour Obtained Crop Year Over Cost (June-May) 100 lb. Flour1 100 lb. Flour2 100 lb. Flour3 Actual of Wheat
------------------------ Wholesale Price of -----------------------Cost of Wheat By-Products ------- Total Products ------to Produce Bakery Flour Obtained Over Cost 100 lb. Flour1 100 lb. Flour2 100 lb. Flour3 Actual of Wheat
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 June-Aug. Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb.
11.22 9.03 7.91 7.74 7.95 7.64 9.66 9.43 9.44 9.29 9.59
11.89 9.99 9.06 8.86 9.36 8.98 11.04 10.58 10.88 10.67 11.08
1.92 1.43 1.08 .98 1.06 1.14 1.16 1.36 1.05 1.12 .98
13.81 11.41 10.15 9.84 10.42 10.11 12.20 11.95 11.92 11.78 12.07
2.60 2.38 2.23 2.10 2.48 2.48 2.54 2.52 2.48 2.49 2.48
11.32 9.83 8.76 8.29 8.24 8.20 9.80 9.98 10.52 9.87 11.16
11.68 10.62 9.80 9.30 9.28 9.11 11.03 10.67 10.99 10.48 11.50
1.87 1.34 1.02 .95 .97 1.10 1.15 1.15 1.12 1.19 1.05
13.54 11.96 10.82 10.24 10.24 10.21 12.17 11.82 12.11 11.67 12.55
2.22 2.12 2.06 1.95 2.01 2.01 2.38 1.84 1.59 1.80 1.38
1 Based on 73% extraction rate, cost of 2.28 bushels: At Kansas City, No. 1 hard winter 13% protein; and at Minneapolis, No. 1 dark northern spring, 14% protein. 2 quoted as mid-month bakers' standard patent at Kansas City and spring standard patent at Minneapolis, bulk basis. 3 Assumed 5050 millfeed distribution between bran and shorts or middlings, bulk basis. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
310
Wool the past decade due to the increased use of polyester fabrics. Wool production in 2002, the latest reporting year for the data series, fell -1.4% yr/yr to a new record low of 1.292 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of degreased wool in 2002 were Australia with 31% of world production, followed by New Zealand (15%), and China (12%). US wool production of 10,000 metric tons in 2002 accounted for only 0.8% of world production. US production of wool goods rose +18.1% yr/yr in 2005 (6 months annualized) to 23.4 million yards, up from the record low of 19.8 million yards in 2004. However, that was only 11% of the 2-decade high in wool goods production seen in 1998. The US sheep herd in 2003 fell –7.7% yr/yr to a record low of 5.057 million sheep, which is roughly half the herd size seen 10 years ago. Demand – US consumption of apparel wool has dropped sharply, along with production, and fell to a record low of 36.015 million pounds in 2002, which is the latest data available. The breakdown of US mill consumption in 2003 showed that wool usage for carpets was 6.017 million pounds, which was a new record low. Wool usage for apparel production rose +21.8%, up from the 2002 record low of 36.015 million pounds. Trade – US exports of domestic wool in 2003 rose +31.2 to 11.100 million pounds, while imports fell –52.6% to 4.986 million pounds.
Wool is light, warm, absorbs moisture, and is resistant to fire. Wool is also used for insulation in houses, for carpets and furnishing, and for bedding. Sheep are sheared once a year and produce about 4.3 kg of “greasy” wool per year. Greasy wool is wool that has not been washed or cleaned. Wool fineness is determined by fiber diameter, which is measured in microns (one millionth of a meter). Fine wool is softer, lightweight, and produces fine clothing. Merino sheep produce the finest wool. Wool futures and options are traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), where there are futures and options contracts on greasy wool, and futures on fine wool and broad wool. All three futures contracts call for the delivery of merino combing wool. Wool yarn futures are traded on the Chubu Commodity Exchange (CCE), the Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME) and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). Prices – Average monthly wool prices at US mills in 2004 (through September) fell –17.9% yr/yr to $1.93 per pound from the 10-year high of $2.41 posted in 2003. Wool prices in 2005 were still almost double the 3-decade low of $1.09 posted in 2000. The value of US wool production was $27.408 million, up 79% from the record low of $15.311 million in 2001. Supply – World production of wool has been falling in
World Production of Wool Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
In Metric Tons--Degreased
Argentina
Australia
China
Kazakhstan
New Zealand
Pakistan
Romania
Russia
South Africa
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
Total
48,000 44,000 39,000 36,000 34,000 36,000 32,000 32,000 31,000
570,000 475,000 457,000 472,000 452,000 437,000 452,000 416,000 395,000
130,000 141,000 152,000 130,000 141,000 144,000 146,000 149,000 152,000
55,000 35,000 25,000 21,000 15,000 13,000 14,000 14,000 14,000
214,000 214,000 199,000 228,000 219,000 220,000 202,000 199,000 199,000
31,000 32,000 32,000 34,000 23,000 23,000 23,000 24,000 24,000
17,000 16,000 16,000 13,000 12,000 13,000 11,000 10,000 12,000
73,000 56,000 46,000 36,000 29,000 24,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
40,000 35,000 37,000 34,000 32,000 34,000 32,000 32,000 32,000
47,000 48,000 46,000 46,000 48,000 47,000 45,000 39,000 42,000
16,000 15,000 13,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 10,000
50,000 46,000 43,000 46,000 42,000 34,000 32,000 32,000 27,000
1,693,000 1,512,000 1,459,000 1,440,000 1,388,000 1,369,000 1,356,000 1,310,000 1,292,000
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Production of Wool Goods2 in the United States Year
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
44.8 42.7 38.8 25.0 17.9
43.6 49.7 37.5 20.9 18.0
30.8 42.3 29.6 17.4 13.4
32.8 40.5 26.3 14.6 17.4
152.0 175.2 132.2 77.9 66.7
2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
20.8 7.4 6.5 5.5 4.9
12.4 8.6 6.4 5.9 6.9
11.0 6.2 5.2 4.2 5.4
9.0 5.5 4.9 4.2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1
In Millions of Yards
First Quarter
Preliminary.
2
Woolen and worsted woven goods, except woven felts.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Consumption of Apparel Wool2 in the United States Year
In Millions of Pounds--Clean Basis
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
39.1 33.1 29.3 17.3 17.4
36.2 33.8 29.6 16.8 16.1
27.4 30.6 21.9 15.8 14.6
26.8 32.8 17.5 13.6 13.9
129.5 130.4 98.4 63.5 63.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 20051
17.0 11.0 W W W
13.5 10.5 W W W
11.6 6.5 W W W
10.9 W W W W
53.0 36.0 W W W
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1
Total
53.2 27.7 23.0 19.8 22.9
Preliminary.
2
Woolen and worsted woven goods, except woven felts.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
311
WOOL Salient Statistics of Wool in the United States
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041
Shorn Sheep Weight & Lambs Per Wool Production Shorn4 Fleece -1,000's- -In Lbs.- 1,000 Lbs.
7,279 7,032 6,428 6,150 6,100 5,700 5,476 5,074 5,073
7.79 7.70 7.70 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.50 7.50 7.40
Price P er Lb.
Value of Production 1,000 $
70.0 84.0 60.0 38.0 33.0 36.0 53.0 73.0 80.0
39,659 45,172 29,415 17,860 15,377 15,311 21,876 28,126 29,931
56,669 53,889 49,255 46,549 46,400 43,000 41,322 38,229 37,622
---------------- Raw Wool (Clean Content) ---------------Dutiable Imports for Total Duty Free Mill Wool Domestic Exports ConsumpImports -- Consumption -ProPro- Domestic tion3 48's Total New (Not Finer Payment Wool Support Rate duction duction & Finer Supply2 than 46's) Apparel Carpet --Cents Per Lb.-- -------------------------------------- In Thousands of Pounds --------------------------------------
------------------100 100 100
---------20.0 40.0 ---18.0 20.0
56,159 53,578 49,255 46,549 46,446 43,016 41,322 38,100
29,921 5,715 28,630 4,732 30,321 1,700 24,800 3,694 24,500 6,629 22,712 6,154 21,818 8,461 20,100 11,100
54,063 99,575 51,484 100,003 45,760 94,814 21,251 63,955 23,874 62,785 15,843 52,128 10,526 38,042 4,986
20,971 24,295 23,121 20,723 20,003 19,727 14,159 15,841
129,525 130,386 98,373 63,535 62,041 52,969 36,015 43,869
12,311 13,576 16,331 13,950 15,205 13,310 6,891 6,017
Preliminary. 2 Production minus exports plus imports; stocks not taken into consideration. 3 Apparel wool includes all dutiable wool; carpet wool includes all duty-free wool. 4 I ncludes sheep shorn at commercial feeding yards. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
Shorn Wool Prices
Year
U.S. Farm ----------------------- Australian Offering Price, Clean2 -----------------------Grade Grade Grade Grade Price Shorn Grade Market 60/62's 58's-56's 64/70's 64's Wool Greasy 70's 433-34 Indicator3 Type 62 Type 64A Type 63 B a si s1 Type 61 -Cents/Lb.- ----------------------- In Dollars Per Pound ----------------------- -Cents/Kg.-
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
70.0 84.0 60.0 38.0 33.0 36.0 53.0 73.0 80.0
2.81 3.56 2.60 2.53 2.80 2.42 2.87 3.23 3.21
2.34 2.57 1.84 1.48 1.50 1.66 2.68 3.14 2.75
2.54 2.90 1.92 1.66 1.69 1.69 2.70 3.16 2.89
1.96 2.06 1.64 1.36 1.37 1.60 2.63 3.02 2.49
1.84 1.95 1.60 1.33 1.30 1.54 2.55 2.81 2.33
----------- Graded Territory Shorn Wool, Clean Basis4 -----------64's Staple 60's Staple 58's Staple 56's Staple 54's Staple 2 3/4" & up 3" & up 3 1/4" & up 3 1/4" & up 3 1/2" & up ---------------------------- In Dollars Per Pound -----------------------------
619 615 663 524 764 841 1,051 821
1.93 2.38 1.62 1.10 1.08 1.21 1.90 2.41 2.35
1.54 1.78 1.31 .85 .75 .91 1.41 1.73 1.59
1.43 1.64 1.21 .74 .65 .77 1.40 1.79 1.74
1.31 1.43 1.06 .66 .57 .66 1.19 1.48 1.50
1.22 1.14 .94 .59 .53 .65 1.02 1.24 1.25
Annual weighted average. 2 F.O.B. Australian Wool Corporation South Carolina warehouse in bond. 3 I ndex of prices of all wool sold in Australia for the crop year July-June. 4 Wool principally produced in Texas and the Rocky Mountain States. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA) 1
Average Wool Prices1 --Australian-- 64's, Type 62, Duty Paid--U.S. Mills
In Cents Per Pound
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
240 234 218 158 154 160 218 344 304 273
237 261 225 150 146 168 243 346 294 271
238 254 247 157 144 164 250 326 288 268
234 261 205 156 156 158 251 333 281 242
242 279 214 150 156 164 249 296 261 265
245 287 179 149 154 166 259 326 275 266
236 NA NA 152 155 167 255 316 277 270
234 270 144 148 151 172 254 308 263 259
228 262 144 139 149 169 268 306 255 252
220 250 140 139 146 159 312 292 255 244
225 245 156 143 140 166 322 285 270 233
232 240 147 137 148 183 328 290 271 236
234 258 184 148 150 166 267 314 275 257
1
Raw, clean basis.
NA = Not available.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Wool Prices --Domestic1-- Graded Territory, 64's, Staple 2 3/4 & Up--U.S. Mills In Cents Per Pound Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
188 190 236 115 95 95 134 236 233 215
192 190 195 115 95 100 150 260 239 207
197 208 195 115 101 108 170 258 240 200
197 228 188 110 110 129 181 250 240 185
195 248 177 117 125 137 189 223 235 185
192 255 170 122 125 125 200 234 229 185
192 255 170 116 125 127 200 239 233 179
192 255 150 110 120 122 200 243 236 186
192 255 115 105 107 126 198 243 240 195
192 255 115 100 105 130 204 243 236 181
190 260 115 110 105 122 223 232 230 168
190 260 115 95 97 127 233 233 230 140
192 238 162 111 109 121 190 241 235 186
1
Raw, shorn, clean basis.
312
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
WOOL
-----
---
Cents Per Pound Fine Scoured Fleece, Ohio (1851 - 1902) Fine Combing, Scoured (64's), Boston (1903 - 1909) Fine Combing, Scoured (64’s), Boston (Jan. 1910 - date) Tops (Jan. 1924 - date)
Wool: Mill Consumption, by Grades in the U.S., Scoured Basis
In Millions of Pounds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apparel Class1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year
------------------------- Woolen System ------------------------ ------------------------- Worsted System ------------------------60's & Coarser 60's & Coarser Finer Than 60's Total Finer Than 60's Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20023 20034
35,960 30,211 42,141 49,038 31,258 18,379 18,503 16,062 9,627 6,681
26,038 27,089 27,575 21,303 15,079 10,772 13,432 9,849 8,482 5,309
Domestic & duty-paid foreign. Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
1
2
61,998 57,300 69,716 70,341 46,337 29,151 31,935 25,911 18,109 11,990
Duty-free foreign.
3
59,599 54,980 46,057 48,153 42,243 27,429 NA NA NA NA
Preliminary.
4
16,966 17,019 13,752 11,892 9,793 6,955 NA NA NA NA
Estimate.
76,565 71,999 59,809 60,045 52,036 34,384 30,106 27,058 17,906 NA
All Total
Carpet Wool2
138,563 129,299 129,525 130,386 98,373 63,535 62,041 52,969 36,015 NA
14,739 12,667 12,311 13,576 16,331 13,950 15,205 13,310 6,891 6,017
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
United States Imports2 of Unmanufactured Wool (Clean Yield)
In Millions of Pounds
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1
9.6 5.1 8.8 6.2 4.9 4.9 1.9 2.5 1.3 2.3
9.1 5.8 5.4 3.6 3.8 4.3 1.8 2.8 1.5 1.1
8.8 5.8 5.4 3.9 3.8 4.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0
5.6 6.6 7.2 7.9 4.6 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.5
7.0 5.8 5.9 3.5 5.1 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.5
5.9 4.2 5.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 1.5 1.8 2.8 2.0
5.3 4.9 5.7 3.7 3.2 4.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.5
6.6 4.2 4.4 3.1 3.7 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.4
3.1 4.8 3.3 2.6 4.3 2.0 1.9 0.8 2.7 1.0
4.6 8.5 7.3 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.6 2.4 1.7
4.6 7.3 4.9 2.8 3.5 1.3 2.1 1.1 1.9 1.5
5.1 8.6 4.3 2.5 2.4 1.3 3.1 1.2 1.2 1.0
75.3 71.5 68.0 46.3 45.0 34.1 24.6 20.8 22.7 18.4
1
Preliminary.
2
For consumption.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
313
Zinc Zinc (symbol Zn) is a bluish-while metallic element that is the 24th most abundant element in the earth’s crust. Zinc is never found in its pure state but rather in zinc oxide, zinc silicate, zinc carbonate, zinc sulfide, and in minerals such as zincite, hemimorphite, smithsonite, franklinite, and sphalerite. Zinc is utilized as a protective coating for other metals, such as iron and steel, in a process known as galvanizing. Zinc is used as an alloy with copper to make brass and also as an alloy with aluminum and magnesium. There are, however, a number of substitutes for zinc in chemicals, electronics, and pigments. For example, with aluminum, steel and plastics can substitute for galvanized sheets. Aluminum alloys can also replace brass. Zinc is used as the negative electrode in dry cell (flashlight) batteries and also in the zinc-mercuric-oxide battery cell, which is the round, flat battery typically used in watches, cameras, and other electronic devices. Zinc is also used in medicine as an antiseptic ointment.
796,300 metric tons seen in 1970. US mine production of recoverable zinc in 2005 rose +1.9% yr/yr to an annualized (through November) level of 720,218 metric tons. US production in 2005 of slab zinc on a primary basis rose sharply by +32.3% to 250,000 metric tons, while secondary production rose +32.5% yr/yr to 155,000 metric tons. Demand – US consumption of slab zinc in 2005 fell by –3.4% yr/yr to 1.120 million metric tons. US consumption of all classes of zinc fell by –2.1% yr/yr in 2005 to 1.37 million metric tons. US consumption of slab zinc by fabricators in 2005 (through November) fell by –3.9% yr/yr to an annualized 404,291 metric tons. That was mildly above the record low of 403,600 metric tons in 2002. The breakdown of consumption by industries for 2003 (latest data available) showed that 52% of slab zinc consumption was by galvanizers, 22% by the zinc-base industry, 17% for brass products, and the rest for other miscellaneous industries. The consumption breakdown by grades for 2004 (latest data for this series) showed that 63% was special high grade, 19% prime western, 12% high grade, and 7% re-melt and other. Within that grade breakdown, prime Western consumption has fallen by nearly half in the past 4 years.
Zinc futures and options are traded on the London Metals Exchange (LME). The LME zinc futures contract calls for the delivery of 25 metric tons of at least 99.995% purity zinc ingots (slabs and plates). The contract trades in terms of US dollars per metric ton. Zinc first started trading on the LME in 1915. Prices – Zinc prices in 2005 rose to a 15-year high monthly average of 67.03 cents per pound, up sharply by +28.2% from 2004. The record average monthly high price for zinc is 83.00 cents posted in 1989.
Trade – The US in 2005 relied on imports for 52% of its consumption of zinc, up sharply from the 35% average seen in the 1990s. US imports for consumption of slab zinc fell by –13.8% yr/yr to 700,000 metric tons in 2005, while imports of zinc ore fell by –22.1% yr/yr to 180,000 metric tons, down sharply from last year’s 22-year high of 231,000 metric tons. The dollar value of US zinc imports in 2003 (latest data available) fell by –5.4% yr/yr to a 10-year low of $840 million.
Supply – World smelter production of zinc in 2005 rose +1.0% to 10.100 million metric tons, which was a new record high. The world’s largest producer of zinc is China with 25% of world smelter production, followed by Canada with 8.1%, Japan with 6.7%, and Australia with 4.8%. US smelter production accounted for only 3.1% of world production in 2004. Australia’s production rose rapidly in the 1999-2002 period and the 2003 level of 557,000 metric tons was just below the record high of 571,500 metric tons seen in 2002. China’s production of 2.300 million metric tons in 2003 was more than four times its production level of 550,000 metric tons seen in 1990. US zinc smelter production in 2003 of 303,000 metric tons was less than half of its production of
Salient Statistics of Zinc in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042
Primary
Secondary
232,000 226,000 226,000 234,000 241,000 228,000 203,000 182,000 187,000 189,000
131,000 140,000 141,000 134,000 131,000 143,000 108,000 113,000 116,000 117,000
603,000 856,000 10,300 586,000 827,000 15,100 605,000 876,000 49,600 722,000 879,000 46,300 808,000 1,060,000 74,600 805,000 915,000 52,800 799,000 813,000 84,000 701,000 874,000 122,000 738,000 758,000 164,000 715,000 812,000 231,000
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. make zinc dust and chemicals.
1
314
In Metric Tons
Imports for ----- Consumption ----Ore Mine (Zinc Slab Production Zinc Content) (Recovered)
Slab Zinc ----- Production -----
3
The breakdown of imports in 2004 shows that most zinc is imported for blocks, pigs and slabs (812,000 metric tons), followed by ores (231,000 metric tons), dust, powder and flakes (24,800 metric tons), dross, ashes and fume (16,100 metric tons), waste and scrap (10,800 metric tons), and sheets, plates and other (2,500 metric tons). ----- Exports -----
Net Import HighReliance Grade, as a % of Price All ConClasses3 sumption -Cents/Lb.-
---------- Consumption ---------Slab Zinc
Ore (Zinc Content)
3,080 1,970 3,630 2,330 1,880 2,770 1,180 1,160 1,680 3,300
424,000 425,000 461,000 552,000 531,000 523,000 696,000 822,000 841,000 745,000
Slab Consumed Zinc as Ore
1,230,000 1,210,000 1,260,000 1,290,000 1,430,000 1,330,000 1,150,000 1,170,000 1,080,000 1,160,000
2,400 1,400 -------------------------
1,460,000 1,450,000 1,500,000 1,590,000 1,700,000 1,630,000 1,420,000 1,420,000 1,340,000 1,400,000
35 33 35 35 30 60 60 60 57 56
55.83 51.11 64.56 51.43 53.48 55.61 43.96 38.64 40.63 52.47
Based on apparent consumption of slab zinc plus zinc content of ores and concentrates and secondary materials used to Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
ZINC World Smelter Production of Zinc3 Year
Australia
Belgium
Canada
China
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Spain
United States
World Total
325.0 331.0 317.0 322.0 348.5 494.5 558.5 571.5 557.5 477.5
301.1 234.4 243.6 205.0 232.4 251.7 259.3 260.0 244.0 263.0
720.3 715.6 703.8 745.1 776.9 779.9 661.2 793.5 761.2 805.1
300.0 324.3 346.1 321.0 1,700.0 1,980.0 2,040.0 2,100.0 2,320.0 2,500.0
322.5 327.0 251.7 334.0 333.1 350.0 347.0 350.0 253.0 260.0
180.4 269.0 227.7 231.6 333.0 327.5 358.3 378.6 388.1 364.0
711.1 642.3 650.2 652.7 152.8 170.3 177.8 176.0 123.0 130.0
169.2 190.0 189.0 240.7 683.6 698.8 684.1 673.9 686.1 667.2
222.7 221.7 231.4 230.3 249.3 262.2 277.1 286.3 279.0 316.5
162.7 163.1 171.0 175.0 218.9 235.1 303.8 302.1 320.4 320.0
358.0 360.8 364.2 360.0 393.0 386.3 418.0 488.0 519.0 525.0
363.0 366.0 367.0 368.0 371.0 371.0 311.0 294.0 303.0 305.0
7,370 7,610 7,920 8,170 8,550 9,020 9,270 9,690 9,860 10,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Secondary metal included.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumption (Reported) of Slab Zinc in the United States, by Industries and Grades ----------------------------------------- By Industries -----------------------------------------GalBrass Zinc-Base Zinc Total vanizers Products Alloy3 Oxide Other
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 20042 1
1,240,000 788,000 672,000 647,000 614,000 640,000 543,000 496,000 506,000 510,000
Preliminary.
2
390,000 398,000 347,000 320,000 308,000 293,000 281,000 265,000 264,000 248,000
Estimated.
3
91,500 87,400 76,800 60,300 78,200 82,800 74,400 86,800 87,400 96,700
Die casters.
4
I ncluded in other.
United States Foreign Trade of Zinc
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 20043 1
194,000 142,000 107,000 122,000 105,000 123,000 91,200 103,000 113,000 W
Zinc content.
2
856,000 827,000 876,000 879,000 966,000 915,000 813,000 874,000 758,000 812,000
332 16,900 19,200 16,900 22,600 9,380 7,240 1,640 1,790 2,500
Preliminary.
3
42,300 31,900 29,600 29,200 26,600 36,500 39,300 31,200 10,300 10,800
Estimate.
90,800 161,000 141,000 145,000 124,000 NA NA NA NA NA
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
135,000 385,000 319,000 331,000 317,000 332,000 294,000 294,000 310,000 321,000
98,200 111,000 88,700 72,800 58,400 60,600 54,000 61,400 60,000 58,800
54,400 54,000 57,200 51,700 55,400 41,500 30,300 28,000 27,600 33,600
251,000 238,000 207,000 192,000 184,000 206,000 165,000 113,000 109,000 96,200
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
10,900 14,500 ------20,000 15,500 12,000 15,500 14,100 16,100
---------------------------- Zinc Ore & Manufactures Exported ----------------------Blocks, Pigs, Wrought & -------------------------------- --- Anodes, etc. --- ---------- Alloys ---------Zinc Ore Dust Angles, Un- Sheets, Total Dust, & Con(Blue Bars, Waste Plates Value Un- wrought Powder Alloys & Strips Rods, etc. & Scrap Powder) centrates $1,000 wrought & Flakes
11,700 10,300 11,700 17,600 21,300 26,700 26,700 30,900 27,400 24,800
NA = Not available.
1,018,620 1,001,800 1,340,390 1,098,690 1,133,890 1,272,750 937,110 887,785 839,705
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
55,900 8,840 45,500 11,100 46,100 9,980 35,000 5,530 28,200 5,050 36,100 4,830 44,000 4,690 47,700 5,660 50,200 6,550 53,900 7,640
424,000 425,000 461,000 552,000 531,000 523,000 696,000 822,000 841,000 745,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Mine Production of Recoverable Zinc in the United States Year
--------------------------------- By Grades ---------------------------------Remelt Special and High High Prime Other Grade Grade Western
In Metric Tons
-------------------------------- Imports for Consumption Dross, Blocks, Sheets, Waste Ashes, Pigs, Plates, Fume Other & Scrap Slabs Ores1
10,300 15,100 49,600 46,300 74,600 52,800 84,000 122,000 164,000 231,000
70,900
In Metric Tons
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
52.4 46.2 50.1 61.4 64.4 68.4 61.3 65.2 60.4 53.6
48.9 45.7 48.3 57.6 56.6 60.5 60.4 60.2 55.3 56.0
49.7 45.8 56.5 63.0 68.5 62.2 67.8 62.7 57.9 64.1
45.5 47.9 56.2 67.0 64.5 65.2 55.2 54.0 58.5 56.7
50.7 49.7 56.7 61.7 70.2 66.9 63.4 65.2 56.1 53.3
49.9 45.3 55.0 62.8 65.3 66.1 63.8 64.0 59.0 64.6
53.7 45.9 59.5 68.2 68.1 66.7 66.0 64.5 60.8 64.5
48.1 49.8 57.2 72.1 71.4 67.6 67.2 59.6 62.0 68.9
46.8 53.0 60.1 60.8 59.6 60.9 54.4 63.3 61.6 61.8
43.4 47.6 55.7 67.8 62.3 67.1 68.3 58.6 61.6 64.4
43.1 44.2 62.0 61.2 63.5 54.0 61.3 61.0 56.8 52.3
42.6 48.4 61.9 65.9 67.2 55.4 65.5 60.5 56.5
600.0 574.0 722.0 808.0 814.0 799.0 754.6 738.8 706.5 720.2
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
315
ZINC
-----
Cents Per Pound Prime Western, East St. Louis (Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1970) Prime Western, Domestic (Jan. 1971 - date)
Consumption of Slab Zinc by Fabricators in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
56.3 47.2 46.3 40.5 41.8 45.4 31.2 33.1 35.1 33.6
55.6 43.1 45.2 45.4 44.6 43.5 31.3 33.1 36.2 33.9
59.3 48.6 47.4 43.8 47.7 44.1 30.4 34.4 36.6 34.1
55.7 50.1 44.8 40.3 45.6 42.7 33.1 35.2 36.7 33.5
56.3 48.1 45.4 42.5 44.4 43.6 34.9 34.7 35.9 33.8
55.9 45.3 49.0 47.1 49.1 38.2 34.4 38.2 37.0 34.1
48.9 45.1 46.0 37.8 42.0 30.6 34.3 34.2 33.7 31.3
48.1 45.5 45.0 40.1 43.3 39.2 35.8 35.5 33.6 33.7
54.4 50.9 45.9 42.0 42.6 37.7 36.1 36.8 33.8 34.8
56.4 49.6 45.9 42.8 47.5 35.7 36.1 36.8 34.6 34.7
54.2 44.3 40.5 41.1 43.8 32.1 32.7 35.3 34.3 33.1
53.1 46.2 43.9 39.7 40.2 27.3 33.3 36.4 33.4
788.0 588.0 647.0 614.0 640.0 543.0 403.6 423.7 420.9 404.3
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Price of Zinc, Prime Western Slab (Delivered U.S. Basis) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
51.38 55.64 55.43 47.29 58.44 51.82 40.98 38.88 49.61 61.10
51.86 59.82 51.86 51.11 54.67 51.29 39.97 38.46 53.31 64.57
52.66 63.28 51.98 51.68 55.60 50.55 42.15 38.48 54.63 66.59
51.03 62.62 54.31 51.07 56.14 48.95 41.66 36.99 51.89 63.55
50.76 65.65 52.77 52.20 57.44 47.54 39.97 37.86 51.88 60.70
49.75 67.78 50.78 50.35 55.67 45.56 39.70 38.57 51.53 61.97
49.86 75.29 52.23 53.73 56.52 43.62 41.01 40.30 49.85 58.26
50.86 80.89 51.64 56.28 58.04 42.53 38.91 39.77 49.31 62.76
51.22 78.96 50.29 59.12 60.53 41.14 39.26 39.84 49.37 67.73
51.76 62.55 47.63 57.07 54.67 39.53 39.08 43.44 53.36 72.10
53.81 57.83 48.74 56.91 53.07 39.99 36.99 44.11 54.61 77.60
53.39 54.45 48.44 58.75 53.00 39.25 38.52 47.60 58.32 87.45
51.53 65.40 51.23 53.84 56.15 45.15 39.64 40.36 52.31 67.03
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
316
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
CRB Yearbook CD Table of Contents Chapter 1: Installation QuickSearch .................................................. Chapter 2: Searching and Browsing Selecting Text to Search .............................. Types of Searches ......................................... Search Operators .......................................... Conducting a Search .................................... Search Results .............................................. Reader Preferences ...................................... Table of Contents Browsing ......................... Chapter 3: Viewing Images Finding Images ............................................. Finding Embedded Images .......................... Zooming Hyper-linked Images ....................
317 317 317 318 318 319 319 319
Chapter 4: Printing Print Hints .................................................... Printing Text or Images ............................... Print Setup ................................................... Page Layout .................................................. Chapter 5: User Annotations Using Bookmarks ......................................... Using Notes ..................................................
321 321 322 322 322 322
320 320 320
CRB Yearbooks CD Copyright © Commodity Research Bureau All rights reserved. QuickSearch is a trademark of dataDisc, Inc. Segments of this manual reprinted with permission by dataDisc, Inc. Factual information contained in the CRB Yearbooks CD has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not necessarily inclusive and are not guaranteed in any way and should not be construed as a representation by us.
Chapter 1: Installation Installing QuickSearch
Fielded Search - searches a specific field and ignores all text outside of that field. To specify a fielded search: 1) Click Selected field under Select where to search. 2) Select a field from the list of available fields.
To run QuickSearch, you will need: • A computer with a 120 Mhz or faster processor, running any current Windows or Macintosh operating system • At least 32 MB of total RAM installed on your computer; for best performance, we recommend at least 64 MB • A CD-ROM drive
Current Table of Contents section - restricts a research only to a Table of Contents (TOC) section.
To Install: 1) Place the disc in the CD-ROM drive. If installation does not start automatically proceed to step 2. 2) Click Start; Select Run 3) Type D:\Autoplay, where D is the letter representing your CD-ROM drive. Press the enter key and follow the instructions.
Note: Search results will represent the selected TOC Section and its sublevels.
Chapter 2: Searching and Browsing Selecting Text to Search Searches can be conducted across all the text in a QuickSearch document (full-text), restricted to a specific field (fielded search), or restricted to a selected table of contents section. Everywhere in text - searches the full text of the QuickSearch document (except for user-defined notes and bookmarks). Choose Everywhere in text in the Search dialog box to specify a full-text search.
1) Click the TOC section in the TOC window. 2) Click the Search button on the toolbar OR select Search/Search from the main menu. 3) Click Current Table of Contents section under Select where to search.
Types of Searches Search for Phrase Type an exact phrase you wish to find, e.g. “Business is the key.” Use quotation marks around the search text to distinguish a phrase search from a word search or choose Search for phrase in the Search/More>> dialog box. The QuickSearch default setting is a phrase search. Search for Words Two types of word searches may be conducted - single words or words in proximity as determined by Search Operators. To conduct a word search, choose Search for word(s) in the Search/More>> dialog box.
317
1) Single Word - Enter any single word, e.g. BUSINESS, to find all occurrences in the document. 2) Words in Proximity - Enter any series of words that you wish to find near each other (e.g. BUSINESS INCREASE). Before conducting a proximity search, define a search range/proximity in the Search/ More>> dialog box. The default setting is 4 words. A typical sentence has 10 words, a typical paragraph has 25 words, and a typical page has 500 words. Refine Last Search The Refine last search feature can be used to modify your most recent search. (See the Advanced Searching section of this chapter.) Search Operators Boolean, wildcard and phrase search operators are available by selecting MORE>> in the Search dialog box. Double-click on any operator to add it to the Search command line or type the operator in the Type the text to find box. To see example of each operator: • Click the Search button and then the More>> button. OR • Select Search/Search from the main menu and More>>. • Click once on the operator you wish to view. The following operators are available for a word search: AND (&) - BUSINESS AND INCREASE - Returns all occurrences of BUSINESS and INCREASE in the specified search range that are near each other. “Near” is defined using the Word Proximity setting in the Search/ More>> dialog box. OR (|) - BUSINESS OR INCREASE - Returns all occurrences of the words in the specified search range without regard to proximity. NOT (~) - BUSINESS NOT INCREASE - Returns all occurrences of the word BUSINESS that are not near the word INCREASE in the specified search range. “Near” is defined using the Word Proximity setting in the Search/ More>> dialog box. Wildcard (*) - Use the asterisk (*) at the end of any part of a word to represent any character or combination of characters. For example, BUSI* may return hits such as business, businesses, busing, and Businowski. The wildcard operator cannot be used in a phrase search.
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Conducting a Search Basic Searching 1) Click the Search button on the Reader toolbar OR select Search/Search from the main menu. 2) In the Search dialog box, select where to search choosing one of the following: • Everywhere in text • Selected field* • Current Table of Contents *Note: Click a field or a TOC entry before choosing Selected field or Current Table of Contents section. 3) Type the search text (word, words within proximity or phrase) in the Type the text to find box or double click on any entry in the Word Wheel to select it as search text. 4) Click Search in the dialog box. “Hits” will be highlighted in the text and displayed in context in a separate Hit List window. The number of hits also will be displayed on the status bar at the bottom of the screen. Advanced Searching Search for Words 1) Begin a search by completing steps 1-3 of a Basic Search. 2) Select More>> to expand the Search dialog box and change to a Search for Word(s) and/or select other Search Operators which alter the nature of the search to be conducted. A Search for Phrase is conducted unless you select another type of search. 3) Specify the Word Proximity in the Search/ More>> dialog box, if you are conducting an AND or NOT search. The default proximity is 4 words. 4) Click Search in the dialog box. “Hits” will be highlighted in the text and displayed in context in a separate Hit List window. The number of hits also will be displayed on the status bar at the bottom of the screen. Refine Last Search To refine the last research: 1) Begin a search by completing steps 1-3 of a Basic Search. Click the More>> button on the Search dialog box to access all search parameters. 2) Click the Refine last search box in the lower left corner of the Search dialog box. 3) Select the Boolean operator to be applied to the refined search (just to the right of the Refine last search check box). 4) Preview the format for the refined search in the Refined Search box at the bottom of the Search dialog box. 5) Type the [New text to Find] word(s) in the Type the text to find box at the top of the Search dialog box. 6) Click Search.
Example: Your first search in the Constitution was for the word “House.” If you want to narrow the search results to include only hits of “House” which are not near “senate,” you can return to the Search dialog box, select Refine last search, select the NOT operator, specify the word proximity, type “Senate” in the Type the text to find box at the top of the Search dialog box and click the Search button. The Hit List will display only hits of “House” which were not located near “Senate” (“near” depends on the proximity that you specified). The final search command would look as follows: (House) ~ (Senate) This search could be further refined by selecting Refine last search and repeating the steps above. Example: If you want to find only occurrences of “House NOT Senate” which are near “Representative,” return to the Search dialog box, select Refine last search, select the AND operator, specify the word proximity, type “Representatives” in the Type the text to find box at the top of the Search dialog box and click on the Search button. The Hit List would display only hits of “House” which were near “Representatives” but not located near “Senate” (“near” depends on the proximity that you specified). The final search command would look as follows: [(House) ~ (Senate)] & (Representatives)
Reader Preferences Select Edit/Preferences from the main menu to open the Document Preference dialog box. The box includes three tabs: Reader, Author, and Stopper Word List. Reader Preferences include: CD-ROM Drive Letter Every CD-ROM player is assigned a drive letter. (It is usually the last drive letter after your other drives.) Default Word Search Proximity Set the default proximity (the number of words between selected words) to be applied in multiple word (non-phrase) searches. Show Hit List? Click Show Hit List? to open a Hit List automatically after conducting a Search. The Hit List shows “hits” items found - when you do a search. Browse hits by clicking the Next/Previous Hit buttons on the toolbar or selecting Search/Search from the main menu. All hits will be highlighted in the text even if a Hit List is not activated. TOC Window Color Click the TOC Window Color button to open a dialog box containing table of Contest background color options. Select from a present color chart, or create a custom color and select it. Click OK. SAVE YOUR DOCUMENT after you select preferences!
Search Results Table of Contents Browsing Browsing Search Results Hit List After conducting a search, each occurrence of the e search text in the document will be displayed in context in a separate Hit List window. Double click on any entry in the Hit List to move to the corresponding section of text. Highlighted Hits in the Text After conducting a search, each occurrence of the search text is highlighted in the text of the document. 1) Click the First/Previous/Next/Last (Hit) buttons to move between highlighted hits in the text. 2) The number of the current hit being viewed and the total number of hits are displayed in the Status bar at the bottom of the screen. Removing the Hit List 1) Click the Clear button on the toolbar OR select Search/Clear Search from the main menu to remove the current Hit List window and the highlighting from the hits in the text. 2) Turn off the Hit List for future searches by selecting Edit/Preferences to open the Document Preferences dialog box. Click the Reader tab to open Reader Preferences. Deselect Show Hit List?.
Hyperlinks The Table of Contents (TOC) provides a convenient method for accessing any section of the QuickSearch document. Each TOC entry is hyper-linked to the corresponding section of text; just click on an entry and QuickSearch automatically will move the corresponding section to the text window. Multiple Levels QuickSearch TOC’s may include up to 32 levels. If there are sublevels in a TOC section, a “+” will appear in front of the TOC entry. To open the next level, click on the “+”. Automatic Tracing As you move through a QuickSearch document (scroll, Next Hit, Previous Hit, etc.) the Table of Contents will “track” your location in the document automatically. A box outline indicates the current TOC section.
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Chapter 3: Viewing Images A QuickSearch document may contain hyperlinked or embedded images. Different methods are used for finding and viewing each type of image Finding Images Finding Hyperlinked Images You can find hyperlinked images in a QuickSearch document by using any of the following options: • List of images • Next/Previous Image buttons or menu selections • Search feature • Special formatting/camera icon Image List - Open a comprehensive list of hyperlinked images in the document. 1) Click the Image List button on the Toolbar OR select Search/Image List from the main menu. 2) Double click on an image title in the Image List to open the image. Browsing Images - You can browse through images using the Next/Previous Image buttons or menu selections. 1) Select Nest/Previous Image buttons OR Search/ First (Nest, Previous, Last) Image from the main menu. 2) The Next and Previous Image buttons or menu selections move the reader sequentially through images in the document. 3) The First and Last Image menu selections move only to the first or last image in the document. Searching for Words in Hyperlinked Image Titles - As each hyper-linked image file is added to a QuickSearch document, it is given an Image Title. The Image Title appears with an optional camera icon at the point you have chosen in the text window. The Image Title is indexed with other text and may be found using a word or phrase search (see Chapter 1 - Searching & Browsing). Look for Special Formatting/Camera Icon – Hyperlinked images can be found by looking for words that have special formatting (the default is double-underlined text). Double click on the specially formatted text to open the image. A camera icon may precede the specially formatted image title. The image can also be opened by clicking on the camera icon. Finding Embedded Images Embedded images appear in the text at the point you have chosen. They may be found by: • Scrolling through text • Conducting a search for words/phrases that appear near the image. Scrolling for an Embedded Image Use the vertical scroll bar to scan text and locate embedded images.
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Searching for an Embedded Image* Search for text that has been placed near an image and marked as hidden. *Note: Titles of embedded images will NOT appear on an Image List. The Image List feature is only for hyperlinked images. Zooming Hyper-linked Images Marquee Image Zooming* Marquee Image Zooming allows you to select a portion of a hyper-linked image and enlarge it to the size of the image window. QuickSearch allows you to zoom to a single pixel. *Note: Marquee Image Zooming is available ONLY for hyper-linked images. 1) Click a hyperlinked image title or camera icon to open the image window. 2) Click on and hold the left mouse button and drag a box around the image area you want to enlarge. 3) When the area is defined, release the mouse button. The area selected will fill the Image Window. 4) Steps 2 and 3 may be repeated to continuing zooming. 5) To return the image to its original size, click once on the image with the left mouse button. Image Panning Image Panning allows you to use the horizontal/vertical scroll bars* to move around a hyperlinked image that has been enlarged by Marquee zooming. Click an arrow on the scroll bar OR click and drag the horizontal or vertical scroll bar button to move the image across the screen. *Note: Scroll bars do not appear on-screen until an image has been zoomed. Scale to Gray Some 1 bit (black & white) hyperlinked images can be sharpened by using the Scale to Gray feature. Scale to Gray will fill in missing pixels to improve the quality of an image. This feature is particularly useful for viewing scanned document images. To use Scale to Gray: 1) Open a hyperlinked image 2) Select View/Scale to Gray from the main menu 3) Scale to Gray will remain active until it is deselected.
Chapter 4: Printing The Print feature will print text and images in the following forms: • Highlighted lines or blocks of text • Selected Tables of Contents section(s) • Search results (“hit” lists) • Embedded images • Hyper-linked images • Zoomed portions of Hyper-linked images Print Hints Highlighted text, images and TOC sections will print in order as they are found in the document. The printed size of Zoomed and Hyper-linked images may vary between portrait and landscape page orientation settings (found via File/Print Setup). You can print multiple TOC sections by: • Using the Shift key to select a series of adjacent TOCs. • Using the CTRL key to individually select specific TOCs. • Using the Shift and CTRL keys alternately to select specific TOC groupings. Printing specifications can be set from the Windows Print Manager utility. Make Print Setup modifications before you Print. Printing Text or Images To Print portions of a document: 1) Highlight lines and/or block(s) of text. 2) Click the Print button on the toolbar. OR Select the File/Print from the main menu. OR Press CTRL+P. To Print a Single TOC section: 1) Click the TOC heading in the Table of Contents window. 2) Click the Print button on the toolbar. OR Select the File/Print TOC selection(s) from the main menu. OR Click the right mouse button and select Print TOC selection(s). OR Press CTRL+P. *Note: All the sublevels in the TOC section will be printed.
To Print Multiple TOC sections: 1) Click the first TOC section you want to print from the Table of Contents window. 2) Press and hold the CTRL key while you click the order TOC sections you want to print. They do not have to be adjacent. 3) When you have finished selecting TOCs, click the Print button on the toolbar. OR Select File/Print TOC selection(s) from the main menu. OR Click the right mouse button and select Print TOC selection(s). OR Press CTRL+P. To Print adjacent TOC sections: 1) Click the first TOC section you want to print from the Table of Contents window. 2) Press and hold the Shift key, and click the last TOC section in the series (all TOC sections between the first and last will be selected automatically). 3) Click the Print button on the toolbar. OR Select File/Print TOC selection from the main menu. OR Click the right mouse button and select Print TOC selection(s). OR Press CTRL+P. *Note: Multiple TOC Selection functions (highlighting using the Shift and/or CTRL keys) can be used in combination to select specific TOC groupings. To Print Embedded Images: 1) Highlight (double click) the embedded image(s) you want ant to print. 2) Click the Print button on the Toolbar. OR Select File/Print from the main menu. OR Press CTRL+P. To Print a Hyperlinked Image: You can print a Hyperlinked Image or a zoomed portion of a Hyperlinked Image. 1) Open the image by double clicking the Image title and/or the camera icon. OR Click the Image List button on the toolbar and double click the Image title from the list. 2) Click the Print button on the Toolbar. OR Select File/Print from the main menu. OR Press CTRL+P.
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Print Setup The Print Setup option allows you to select printer type, page orientation, paper size, paper source, and printer properties (paper, graphics, fonts, device options). Make these selections before you print. To change the Print Setup: 1) Select File/Print Setup from the main menu. 2) In the Print Setup dialog box, click the down arrow in the Name pull down menu, select a printer type and enter it in the Name window (or click Network to access Network printer options). 3) To select new printer properties select Properties and make modifications. 4) Select Landscape or Portrait. 5) Select OK to exit. Page Layout You can adjust the top, bottom, left, and right margins of a printed page as follows: 1) Select File/Page Layout from the main menu. 2) In the Page Parameters dialog box, set margins (in inches) and click OK.
Chapter 5: User Annotations The reader may customize a QuickSearch document by adding “margin” Bookmarks and Notes. Annotate functions enable the reader to make customized Bookmarks in the text and make private, unsearchable comments about a document with Notes. The Bookmark feature enables the reader to “save his place,” while the Notes feature allows the reader to “write in the margins” of the text. Using Bookmarks To add a Bookmark to a document: 1) Highlight a portion of text or place the cursor where you would like to add the Bookmark. 2) Click on the Bookmark icon on the Reader toolbar OR select Annotate/Bookmark from the main menu or select Insert Bookmark from the right mouse button menu. If text has been highlighted, it is shown in the Edit Bookmark/Name text box. If not, enter a name for the bookmark in the text box. 3) Click Add to place the selected text in the Current Bookmarks list. 4) Click Go to to scroll text to the point where the bookmark appears. 5) Click Close to close the Bookmark dialog box. To go to a Bookmark: 1) Click on the Bookmark button on the toolbar OR select Insert Bookmark from the right mouse button menu to open the list of Current Bookmarks. 2) Highlight the bookmark you want to move to in the text. 3) Click Go to. The selected text will move to the top of the text window.
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To edit a Bookmark: 1) Click on the Bookmark icon on the toolbar OR select Annotate/Bookmark from the main menu OR select Insert Bookmark from the right mouse button menu to open the dialog box containing current bookmarks. 2) In the Current Bookmarks list, click on the bookmark you wish to edit. It will appear in the Edit Bookmark/Name window. 3) Make changes and click Add. To remove a Bookmark: 1) Click the Bookmark icon on the Reader toolbar or select Insert Bookmark from the right mouse button menu to open the dialog box containing current bookmarks. 2) In the Current Bookmarks list, click on the bookmark you wish to remove. It will appear in the Edit Bookmark/Name text box. 3) Click Remove. Using Notes To add a Note to a document: 1) Place the cursor in the text window where you want the note to appear. 2) Click on the Notepad button OR select Annotate/ Notes/Insert from the main menu OR select Insert Note from the right mouse button menu to open the Notepad dialog box. 3) Type in the note and click Save; a Notepad icon appears in the left margin next to the specified line of text. To View a Note: 1) Double click the Notepad icon in the left margin. 2) The Notepad dialog box displays the note. To Edit a Note: 1) Double click the icon of the note you want to edit. 2) Make changes to text. 3) Click Save. To Remove a Note: 1) Place the cursor on the Notepad icon and select Annotate/Note/Delete from the main menu OR select Delete Note from the right mouse button menu. 2) A dialog box will ask you to confirm the note deletion. 3) Click Yes. The icon will disappear after scrolling in the document.
