THE CRB COMMODITY YEARBOOK 2004
Commodity Research Bureau
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
THE CRB COMMODITY YEARBOOK 2004
Commodity Research Bureau
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Copyright © 2004 by Commodity Research Bureau. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011, fax 201-748-6008, e-mail:
[email protected] Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services, or technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at 800-762-2974, outside the United States at 317-572-3993 or fax 317-572-4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. ISBN 0-471-64921-X Printed in the United States of America 10
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CRB believes that the information and opinions contained herein are reliable, but CRB does not make any warranties whatsoever, expressed or implied, and CRB assumes no liability for reliance on or use of information and opinion contained herein. Commodity Research Bureau Editorial Board Publisher Davidson C. Lowdon
Editor in Chief Christopher J. Lown
Contributing Author Richard W. Asplund
Commodity Research Bureau 330 South Wells Street, Suite 1112 Chicago, Illinois 60606-7104 USA 800.621.5271 or 312.554.8456 Fax: 312.939.4135 Website: www.crbtrader.com Email:
[email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
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The Commodity Price Trend CRB Indexes Major Commodity Bull Market Emerges in 2003 US Economic Surge Drives Global Economic Recovery China Breaks Out as Major Player in Global Commodity and Financial Markets Free-Trade Talks Produce Some Success but Move From Global to Regional Mad Cow Disease Arrives in North America in 2003 and Roils The Markets Futures and Options Volume Statistics, U.S. Futures and Options Volume Statistics, Worldwide Conversion Factors Yearbooks CD Instructions
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1 5 6 7 8 11 12 13 14 16 17 20 21 22 29 30 32 33 36 37 42 44 49 50 56 63 64 72 76 78 86 87 91 93 95 98 102 104 107 111 116 118 119 123 126 131 132 143 149 154 156 160
Aluminum Antimony Apples Arsenic Barley Bauxite Bismuth Broilers Butter Cadmium Canola (Rapeseed) Cassava Castor Beans Cattle and Calves Cement Cheese Chromium Coal Cobalt Cocoa Coconut Oil and Copra Coffee Coke Copper Corn Corn Oil Cotton Cottonseed and Products CRB Futures Index Currencies Diamonds Eggs Electric Power Fertilizers (Nitrogen, Phosphate & Potash) Fish Flaxseed and Linseed Oil Fruits Gas Gasoline Gold Grain Sorghum Hay Heating Oil Hides and Leather Hogs Honey Interest Rates, U.S. Interest Rates, Worldwide Iron and Steel Lard Lead Lumber and Plywood
165 166 168 172 174 176 178 179 180 184 185 186 189 191 192 196 198 203 205 210 214 218 220 223 228 230 231 233 234 239 243 248 254 262 266 272 273 275 276 278 279 283 285 288 289 290 293 295 296 300 311 314
Magnesium Manganese Meats Mercury Milk Molasses Molybdenum Nickel Oats Olive Oil Onions Oranges and Orange Juice Palm Oil Paper Peanuts and Peanut Oil Pepper Petroleum Plastics Platinum-Group Metals Pork Bellies Potatoes Rayon and Other Synthetic Fibers Rice Rubber Rye Salt Sheep and Lambs Silk Silver Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Soybeans Stock Index Futures, U.S. Stock Index Futures, Worldwide Sugar Sulfur Sunflowerseed and Oil Tall Oil Tallow and Greases Tea Tin Titanium Tobacco Tung Oil Tungsten Turkeys Uranium Vanadium Vegetables Wheat and Flour Wool Zinc
CRB Futures Market Service Fundamental Market Research Commonly known as the Blue Sheet, this weekly publication from CRB is the industry's oldest and most respected fundamental newsletter. A wealth of fundamental research and commentary not found anywhere else, this eight-page market letter covers over 35 major markets. Includes specific instructions on what to look for in each market, when to buy or go short, where to place stops, initial objectives, and much more to help make you a more profitable trader. Also featured is "Outlook on Futures," a penetrating front-page analysis of the week's most active commodity or general futuresrelated economic condition. Technical indicators, trends, patterns, and changes in the markets are identified and interpreted by experienced market analysts. When you combine fundamental and technical analysis you have the most complete picture of market activity possible. FMS is available as a weekly mailed, emailed, or online publication, and also as a daily download from the CRB DataCenter. Online and Email subscribers can view and download the weekly editions back to 1998!
For more information, visit www.crbtrader.com, or call 800-621-5271 Commodity Research Bureau • 330 South Wells Street, Suite 1112 • Chicago IL, 60606 USA Phone: 312.554.8456 or 800.621.5271 • Fax: 312.939.4135 •
[email protected] • www.crbtrader.com
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The editors wish to thank the following for source material: Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) American Bureau of Metal Statistics, Inc. (ABMS) American Forest & Paper Association (AF & PA) The American Gas Association (AGA) American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) American Metal Market (AMM) Bureau of the Census Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME / IMM / IOM) Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Commodity Futures Trading Commision (CFTC) The Conference Board Economic Research Service (ERS) Edison Electric Institute (EEI) E D & F Man Cocoa Ltd Farm Service Agency (FSA) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fiber Economics Bureau, Inc. Florida Department of Citrus Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Futures Industry Association (FIA) International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) Johnson Matthey Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) Leather Industries of America MidAmerica Commodity Exchange (MidAm) Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) National Coffee Association of U.S.A., Inc. (NCA) New York Cotton Exchange (NYCE / NYFE / FINEX) New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) Oil World The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Random Lengths The Silver Institute The Society of the Plastics Industry, Inc. (SPI) United Nations (UN) United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) United States Geological Survey (USGS) Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
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THE COMMODITY PRICE TREND The Reuters-Commodity Research Bureau Futures Index in 2003 closed the year at 255.29, up +8.86% from the 2002 close of 234.52. The rally in the Reuters-CRB Futures Index in 2003 produced the second consecutive yearly gain, adding to the +23.04% rally seen in 2002. In the recession year of 2001, the Reuters-CRB Futures Index fell –16.34%. Four of the six Reuters-CRB Futures Price Sub-indices posted gains in 2003: Industrials (+45.31%), Precious Metals (+25.94%), Grains (+19.93%), and Energy (+11.87%). Two of the six Sub-indices posted declines: Softs (-17.53%) and Livestock (-5.26%). The decline in two of the Sum-indices in 2003 contrasted with 2002 when all six Sub-indices posted gains. The Reuters-CRB Futures Index showed weakness in early 2003 due to the war with Iraq because it produced uncertainty and a weak US economy. However, the Index recovered after the war and stabilized through July of 2003. In late-July, the Index entered a 5-month-long bull market that continued into December. That bull market was driven by (1) the sharp recovery in the US economy in the latter half of 2003 which boosted demand for industrial goods, and (2) the severe weakness in the dollar. Because the dollar index in 2003 plunged by 15%, the cost of real goods was driven higher when priced in terms of the lower US dollar. Energy The Reuters-CRB Energy Sub-index, which is comprised of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Natural Gas, accounts for 18% of the overall Index. The Energy Sub-index in 2003 closed +11.87%, extending the gain of +56.52 seen in 2002. Crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas all showed strong gains during the year, boosted by the recovery in the global economy in the second half of the year and by supply concerns as OPEC kept its production tight and as Iraq production lagged. Grains The Reuters-CRB Grains and Oilseeds Sub-index, which is comprised of Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat, accounts for 18% of the overall Index. The Grains and Oilseeds Subindex in 2003 closed +19.93%, adding to the +18.35% gain seen in 2002. Corn prices closed the year moderately higher at $2.53 per bushel because of the hot and dry growing season in the US which resulted in lower than expected yields. Soybeans posted a 6-year high of $8.02 per bushel late in the year because of a tight supply situation and large Chinese purchases of soybeans from the US. China in 2003 had to import more than half of the soybeans that it consumed. Wheat posted a new 1-1/4 year high of $4.09 per bushel in November due to the hot and dry weather over the summer and tight supplies.
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Industrials The Reuters-CRB Industrials Sub-index, which is comprised of Copper and Cotton, accounts for 12% of the overall Index. The Industrials Sub-index showed a sharp gain of +45.31% in 2003, adding to the +24.51% gain seen in 2002. Copper staged a very sharp rally during the year because of the recovery in the US economy and then closed the year at a 6-year high of 104.30 cents per pound. Cotton rallied sharply during the year due in part to strong export demand to China, which saw a 14% decline in its own domestic cotton crop. Livestock The Reuters-CRB Livestock Sub-index, which is comprised of Live Cattle and Live Hogs, accounts for 12% of the overall Index. The Livestock Sub-index closed –5.26% in 2003, posting another weak year after showing a +1.44% increase in 2002 and a –2.43% decline in 2001. Live cattle rallied sharply in the July-November 2003 period but then plunged by about 20% in December after the first case of mad cow disease was found in the US. Live hogs closed the year slightly higher with the rally late in the year due to hopes for improved pork demand given the concerns about beef. Precious Metals The Reuters-CRB Precious Metals Sub-index, which is comprised of Gold, Platinum, and Silver, accounts for 17% of the overall Index. The Precious Metals Sub-index rallied sharply by +25.94% in 2003, adding to the +17.13% gain seen in 2002. Gold, silver, and platinum all staged sharp rallies during the year and hit new highs in the last week of 2003 due to improved consumer demand and the weakness in the dollar. Softs The Reuters-CRB Softs Sub-index, which is comprised of Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, and Sugar #11, accounts for 23% of the overall Index. The Softs Sub-index in 2003 closed sharply lower by –17.63%, nearly reversing the +20.13% gain seen in 2002. Cocoa closed the year -25% lower as the political situation stabilized in the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer of cocoa. Coffee closed the year at the top of its 55-70 cent trading range on tight supplies caused by a poor harvest in Brazil. Orange juice closed sharply lower on the year due to falling demand by calorie-conscious consumers and a 25% increase in Florida’s crop production. Sugar plunged during the year due to the 11th consecutive year of worldwide production surpluses.
CRB INDEXES
Monthly Reuters-CRB Futures Index Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close High L ow Close
Source: Reuters
High, Low and Close (1967=100)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
229.80 226.20 225.60 237.96 232.58 232.78 247.56 238.63 247.53 244.30 238.93 238.99 235.36 221.56 234.28 198.96 187.18 189.74 213.70 201.43 210.46 232.58 223.02 224.12 195.97 186.38 187.29 248.92 234.58 248.45
229.20 225.70 227.60 236.16 230.97 234.25 251.21 245.62 248.77 243.91 236.14 242.41 236.08 223.97 227.65 191.45 182.76 182.95 215.29 206.74 208.78 228.34 219.68 221.78 193.53 187.19 192.33 251.59 245.39 247.25
231.00 227.40 227.70 236.89 231.07 232.94 253.50 242.72 251.40 248.01 241.64 245.17 231.74 223.04 228.88 193.28 183.38 191.83 217.88 209.61 214.37 225.75 210.24 210.26 205.45 192.26 204.92 247.23 228.10 232.15
227.80 227.80 225.00 237.70 233.16 235.30 263.79 250.19 256.09 249.00 237.64 248.29 229.09 223.42 223.99 192.89 187.14 192.39 214.15 207.61 211.03 216.39 208.87 214.50 208.39 195.21 201.16 236.62 228.77 232.53
239.20 225.20 235.50 237.12 229.55 232.72 261.24 251.79 254.07 254.79 245.54 250.96 226.67 214.03 215.90 193.99 185.05 186.72 226.12 211.86 222.27 219.29 208.43 209.00 205.33 197.42 204.20 242.16 231.26 235.55
239.70 235.90 230.40 238.00 232.18 233.38 252.92 246.64 248.67 249.98 238.52 239.42 216.75 208.42 214.63 193.43 185.07 191.54 227.29 222.23 223.93 212.39 203.86 205.56 209.33 199.56 209.29 238.25 231.39 233.78
234.70 230.40 233.70 235.90 229.31 233.23 251.90 240.09 241.99 243.38 232.01 242.75 216.75 205.99 206.00 192.91 182.67 190.36 225.69 217.42 218.61 209.27 201.84 202.70 215.10 207.24 210.97 237.20 230.36 234.21
235.40 228.00 231.90 240.27 231.71 239.97 252.04 242.83 249.46 245.30 236.69 241.98 207.48 195.18 195.68 199.59 190.14 199.35 228.02 217.76 227.41 202.90 197.02 199.63 219.24 208.46 219.20 243.74 233.96 243.70
234.40 228.60 229.90 245.81 239.38 241.73 250.35 243.10 245.63 244.50 240.03 243.06 205.03 196.31 203.30 209.41 199.03 205.19 232.20 224.74 226.57 202.34 188.24 190.49 229.62 217.60 226.53 246.07 236.79 243.66
235.20 227.00 233.30 242.67 238.32 242.22 249.59 237.78 237.83 247.62 238.34 240.04 206.57 201.34 203.28 209.91 199.66 201.52 234.38 218.38 219.28 191.09 182.83 185.66 231.67 223.82 228.91 250.67 241.68 247.58
234.70 228.80 229.20 244.49 240.85 241.84 247.08 235.99 243.36 243.52 235.27 235.92 206.73 195.18 195.42 207.54 202.23 204.07 231.46 220.93 229.79 192.74 181.83 192.66 231.83 223.29 230.64 257.54 244.79 248.44
D e c.
Range
237.18 239.70 226.97 225.20 236.64 ---246.47 246.47 240.93 229.31 243.18 ---246.85 263.79 238.12 235.99 239.61 ---238.39 254.79 228.84 228.84 229.14 ---197.29 236.08 187.89 187.89 191.22 ---206.20 209.91 200.74 182.67 205.14 ---233.37 234.38 225.46 201.43 227.83 ---193.94 232.58 187.73 181.83 190.61 ---238.39 238.39 230.17 186.38 234.52 ---263.60 263.60 249.60 228.10 255.29 ----
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CRB INDEXES
8T
CRB INDEXES
9T
CRB INDEXES
10T
CRB INDEXES
11T
CRB INDEXES
12T
CRB INDEXES
13T
CRB INDEXES
14T
CRB INDEXES
15T
CRB INDEXES
16T
CRB INDEXES
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MAJOR COMMODITY BULL MARKET EMERGES IN 2003
The rally in commodity prices that began in 2001 is taking on major proportions and is now ranked as the third largest commodity rally seen in the past 4 decades. This report analyzes the reasons behind the rally and investigates the question of whether the rally will continue. The current bull market in commodity prices began in October 2001 when the Reuters-CRB Futures index posted a 4-1/2 year low of 182.83. That low was just marginally above the 7-year low of 182.67 posted in July 1999 and represented a double bottom for chart pattern followers. From the October 2001 low, the Reuters-CRB index rallied by a total of 44.2% to the 7-3/4 year high of 236.60 posted in December 2003. The current 2001-2003 rally of 44.2% is the third largest rally in percentage terms seen in the past four decades, falling behind only the 146.7% rally seen in 1971-1974 and the 82.8% rally seen in 1977-1980. The rally in commodity prices in the 1971-1980 period could actually be seen as a single rally if the consolidation period in 1974-1977 is seen as merely a pause before the rally continued in the 19771980 period. If the 1971-1980 rally in commodity prices is seen as a single rally, then the total percentage gain was 250% from the low of 96.40 in October 1971 to the high of 337.60 in November 1980. Then the current rally would be the second, rather than the third, largest rally seen in the past 4 decades. The bull market seen in commodities in the 1970s was primarily a monetary phenomenon driven by a stimulative monetary policy and a surge in inflation. The CPI in the 1970s surged to 12% in late 1974, fell back through 1977, but then surged to a peak of 14.8% in March 1980. The
surge in inflation was finally stopped by Paul Volcker who took over as Federal Reserve Chairman in 1979 and implemented a strict monetarist policy of controlling the money supply. That effort was successful in cracking the back of inflation, and the CPI fell back to hit a low of +1.1% in December 1986. Since the inflation debacle of the 1970s, the Federal Reserve has been very successful in containing inflation and has since kept the CPI mostly below 4%. In fact the CPI has averaged only +3.1% since 1983. The Fed’s success in containing inflation led to comparatively stable commodity prices in the last two decades. There have been two significant commodity rallies, but both were less than 40%. The rally in 1986-1988 totaled +38.8% and the rally in 1992-1996 totaled +33.1%. Both those rallies were less than the rally seen so far in the 2001-2003 period. The big question going forward is whether the current commodity rally will blossom into even larger dimensions. The duration of the current rally is only 26 months so far, which makes it the second shortest rally of the five largest rallies seen since 1960. That suggests that the current rally could easily last longer. The longest rally was the 1977-80 rally, which lasted more than 3 years (39 months) and was 13 months longer than the current rally. It is easy to argue that the current commodity bull market could last at least through 2004 and perhaps beyond. The driving force for the rally is the surge in world economic growth that started in mid-2003 and should continue at least through 2004. That surge in economic growth has boosted demand for basic commodities at a time when many suppliers were caught off-guard with their produc-
Commodity Bull Markets Ranked by Percentage Gain (1960-2003) ---------------------- Low ----------------------
1971-74 1977-80 2001-03 1986-88 1992-96
October 1971 August 1977 October 2001 July 1986 August 1992
Source: Commodity Research Bureau
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96.40 184.70 182.83 196.16 198.17
---------------------- High ----------------------
February 1974 November 1980 December 2003 Ju n e 1988 April 1996
237.80 337.60 263.60 272.19 263.79
Percent Rally
Rally Duration (months)
Correlation (Reuters-CRB CPI)
Avg CPI (yr-yr% )
146.7% 82.8% 44.2% 38.8% 33.1%
28 39 26 23 44
0.97 0.96 0.95 0.89 0.96
4.9% 10.2% 1.9% 3.2% 2.8%
tion levels at relatively low levels. It will take months if not years for producers to ramp supply back up to meet demand. The rally in commodity prices is also being driven by the severe weakness in the dollar against the world’s major currencies. The nearby chart shows that the dollar index, which shows the value of the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, has plunged by more than 25% in the past 2 years. Weakness in the dollar boosts the prices of commodities because commodities have a real, intrinsic value and when the value of the dollar falls, the price of those commodities appreciates when expressed in terms of weaker dollars. The price of commodities as expressed in dollars is important because the bulk of international trade in commodities is carried out between buyers and sellers in terms of prices set in US dollars. The weak dollar is being driven primarily by the Fed’s extraordinarily easy monetary policy whereby the Fed is targeting the federal funds rate at a 4-decade low of 1.00% and is aggressively pumping reserves and dollars into the US banking system. The market is only expecting the Fed to raise its funds rate target by one-half percentage point in 2004, which would still leave the funds rate target at an extraordinarily low 1.50%. That means that the Fed’s monetary policy through 2004 is likely to remain very easy, thus contributing to ongoing dollar weakness and commodity price strength. The weak dollar is also being driven by the massive US current account deficit, which is largely the result of structural problems such as the low US savings rate and the huge US demand for imported energy, factors that are unlikely to be resolved anytime in the foreseeable future.
But while the commodity rally may continue in coming months, the rally is unlikely to turn into anything approaching the size of the rally seen in the 1970s when commodity prices rallied by 250% over the course of the decade. The main reason is because the Fed still has inflation firmly under control and will quickly step in with a tighter monetary policy if inflation starts to get out of hand, in contrast to the 1970s when the Fed completely lost control of the situation. During the current commodity bull market, inflation has averaged only +1.9%, which is the lowest of any of the other five bull markets in the past 4 decades (see the table at the beginning of this report). The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is currently in even better shape and fell to a 4-decade low of +1.1% in December 2003. By contrast, inflation (CPI growth) averaged +4.9% during the 1971-1974 rally and +10.2% during the 1977-1980 rally. The current low inflation rate is the key factor allowing the Fed to maintain its 1.00% funds rate target. If the inflation rate does begin to creep higher, the Fed will undoubtedly respond by slowly raising interest rates to curb economic demand and raw commodity demand. It is unthinkable that the Fed would allow inflation to approach even 6%, let alone doubledigit levels, because the Federal Reserve, and indeed the entire political class in Washington, learned their lesson about the severe economic damage that flows from high inflation rates. That suggests that there is an eventual limit to the size of the current commodity bull market. But why hasn’t the surge in raw commodity prices shown up in the prices of the services and finished goods that the CPI measures? The answer is that most companies have been absorbing the higher commodity prices as a higher cost of doing business and haven’t yet raised their prices. For example, French tire-maker Michelin SA said in late February 2004 that the 41% jump in its naturalrubber costs in 2003 was the main reason its 2003 net income declined by 45%. Companies need to keep their prices down because competition is very keen in virtually all industries, and businesses want to maintain their sales and market shares. Most businesses can afford to hold down their prices for the time being because profits have improved sharply in the past year and because the surge in labor productivity since the mid-1990s means companies have lower per-unit labor costs, giving them some room to absorb higher raw commodity input prices. However, companies will not be able to absorb commodity price gains forever, and will eventually be forced to raise prices to maintain profit margins that are acceptable to their shareholders, thus leading to upward pressure on finished goods prices and the CPI index. That is why the CPI is likely to creep higher as 2004 wears on. In fact, the pricing of the Treasury’s inflation-indexed T-note currently suggests inflation expectations of +2.3%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the December CPI rate of +1.9% y/y. The strong correlation between the Reuters-CRB Futures Index and the CPI during bull markets supports the thesis that the CPI will move higher in 2004. The correlation between the Reuters-CRB Futures Index and the CPI index over a rolling, or backward-looking, 24-month period has averaged 0.69 since 1960, although it fluctuates widely and even turns negative fairly often. However, during bull markets, there is a very high correlation between the Reuters-CRB Futures Index and the CPI, as seen in the
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table at the beginning of this report. The correlation during the current 2001-2003 rally is 0.95, just slightly below the 0.96 and 0.97 correlations seen during the two rallies in the 1970s. Looking within the current 2001-2002 commodity bull market, the correlation during 2002 was negative for most of the year, but in 2003 the Reuters-CRB Futures Index and the CPI index became closely synchronized and showed an increasingly strong correlation through the end of 2003. That high correlation supports the thesis that the CPI will be moving higher in 2004 as higher commodity prices have a greater effect on the CPI. Looking at the components of the commodity price rally provides important information on the reasons behind the commodity rally and whether it will continue. Four of the six Reuters/CRB Futures Price sub-indices posted gains in 2003: Industrials (+45.31%), Precious Metals (+25.94%), Grains (+19.93%), and Energy (+11.87%). Two of the six sub-indices posted declines: Softs (-17.53%) and Livestock (-5.26%). There were different reasons behind the price movement in each sector. The fact that all the sectors didn’t rise together supports the theory that the commodity bull market is not being driven by monetary policy but rather by specific circumstances in each market. Energy rallied because of increased world demand for oil combined with restrictive OPEC production. Softs (coffee, cocoa, sugar, orange juice) were weak mainly because of weaker demand and/or supply factors in each particular market. Meats closed lower because of the mad cow disease found in December. The bulk of the rally in the grain sub-index was caused by Chinese buying of soybeans and by weather problems during the summer of 2003 in the US. The rally in the industrials sub-index (which includes copper) and the precious metals sub-index was caused by the generalized factors behind the commodity rally as a whole, i.e., increased US economic growth, the weak dollar, and Chinese demand. Chinese demand, in fact, is a key reason behind the current rally in the commodity indexes. China’s economy grew at a 9.1% GDP growth rate in 2003 and sucked in a huge amount of raw materials to fuel its growth. Chinese demand has been a key factor behind the rallies in such commodities as copper, nickel, steel, lumber, and many other raw materials for the manufacturing and construction sectors. For example, in the copper market, JP Morgan estimates that China now accounts for 19.6% of global copper
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demand versus only 14.7% for the US, which is a radical shift from just several years ago when the US consumed roughly 50% more copper than China. Chinese demand has helped drive copper prices to a new 8-year high in February 2004, which represents more than a doubling of copper prices since the low in 2001. Nickel prices have nearly doubled since mid-2003 and are at 14-year highs. Hot-rolled steel prices have rallied by roughly 80% in the past year. Platinum is at an all-time high. Lumber prices have nearly doubled in the past year. In the scrap steel markets, US steel consumers, who are being squeezed by sharply higher steel prices, are pressuring Washington for export restrictions on scrap steel because so much is being shipped out to the Far East to meet Chinese demand for steel. The fact that the third largest commodity bull market in four decades is in progress suggests that we are in the midst of fundamental global changes. The rally is due in part to business-cycle factors such as a US economic recovery and a weak dollar. However, there are fundamental structural factors behind the rally, primarily the globalization of commodity demand and the surge in emerging countries. Socialist economics has been relegated to the dustbin of history and it is now clear that the only way forward is through market-driven capitalism. The yoke of economic oppression is being thrown off by literally billions of people. Countries such as China and India, with more than a billion people each, are having a greater impact on the global economy every year. With the massive pent-up demand for basic consumer and industrial products in those countries, there will be a substantial and long-term increase in the demand for raw commodities to produce those goods. It seems a foregone conclusion that there will be substantial demand for raw commodities in the coming years, and that producers will be unable to respond quickly with higher supply. It also seems a sure bet that the Fed will not act quickly to curb the commodity price rally because the rally is not producing a generalized breakout in the CPI (inflation) and because the Fed is trying to promote healing in the US labor market. That suggests that as long as there are no major global external shocks (e.g., financial collapses or wars), the commodity rally will continue and perhaps reach even larger proportions. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist, February 2004.
US ECONOMIC SURGE DRIVES GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY World economic growth improved to +3.2% in 2003, up from +3.0% in 2002 and the 11-year low of +2.4% seen in 2001, according to statistics from the IMF. Stronger world economic growth in 2003 was mainly due to the sharp upward rebound in the US economy, which helped pull the rest of the world out of the 2000-2003 slump. However, there were independent sources of strength as well, such as the +9.1% growth rate in China and the +3.2% GDP growth rate in Japan. Japan finally appears to be turning around after the dismal +1.4% average annual GDP growth rate seen since 1990. The UK was also a source of strength with a 2003 GDP growth rate of +5.3% through Q3. However, the Euro-Zone lagged behind with a growth rate of only +0.6% in 2003 and expectations for meager growth of +1.8% in 2004. The German economy in 2003 in fact showed a decline of –0.1% and is expected to see a poor growth rate of +1.7% in 2004. The French economy showed a decline of –0.4% in Q2 and –0.3% in Q3 (year-on-year).
On balance, world economic growth is expected to improve significantly in 2004. The IMF is forecasting world growth at +4.1%, which would be a 4-year high. World growth in 2004 will benefit from expansionary monetary policies throughout the world and pent-up demand after the 2000-03 slowdown. There are factors that will likely limit world economic growth in 2004, such as high energy prices and the weak dollar which is depressing exports outside the US. However, the world economy is expected to shake off these negative factors to put in the best GDP performance in 4 years.
US economic optimism grows – Optimism on the US economy prevailed as 2003 ended. The US economy rebounded sharply higher in the second half of 2003 after the war with Iraq concluded in April. The US economy finally began firing on all cylinders after the shocks from the technology and stock market bust in 2000 and the 9/11 terrorist attack of September 11, 2001. The US economy was temporarily on the mend in 2002 but then the impending war with Iraq in 2003 delayed the recovery. But as 2003 ended, all signs were pointing upward with US economic growth surging, with the US labor market slowly improving, with commodity prices rising, and with world economic growth also on the mend. US GDP Overview – The US economy weakened in late 2002 because of the impending war with Iraq with GDP growth in Q4-2002 at a 2-year low of +1.3%. However, the US economy then began to improve in Q1-2003 to +2.0% and then to +3.1% after the war with Iraq ended in April. The US economy then soared by +8.2% in Q3, which was the strongest quarterly growth rate since 1984. The US economy remained strong at +4.1% in Q4. The upward rebound in the US economy seen in the second half of 2003 marked the end of the economic bust that started in mid-2000 when the US stock market bubble burst. The US economy was in an official recession in the March-November 2001 period, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter for dating US recessions. That 8-month recession was slightly shorter than the average recession seen since World War II. Despite the recession, US GDP in 2001 was still positive at +0.5%, but down sharply from +3.7% in 2000 and +4.5% in 1999. In 2002, the economy recovered to a modest growth rate of +2.2% and then improved further to +3.1% in 2003. Looking ahead, market participants are generally looking for the US economy to grow in the +4.0 to +4.5% area in 2004, which would be moderately above the +3.7% average growth rate seen in the 1992-2000 expansion period.
Fed policy – The Fed’s extremely accommodative monetary policy was a key factor behind the upward rebound in the US economy in 2003. The Fed came into 2003 with an extremely low federal funds target of 1.25% and then the Fed cut the rate by another 25 basis points to 1.00% on June 25, 2003. The funds rate target then stayed at that level through the remainder of 2003, which was the lowest level for the funds rate target in 40 years.
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The Fed implemented such an accommodative monetary policy because it was concerned about the US economy and the possibility of deflation. The Fed was clearly aware of the damage that deflation did to the Japanese economy throughout the 1990’s. The Fed was basically willing to do whatever it took to get the US economy back on track to healthy growth. There was even talk early in the year that the Fed might have to take extraordinary measures such as massive bond purchases to stimulate the economy since the funds rate was already near zero at 1%. However, by the end of 2003 with the economy rebounding, the Fed was moving toward a more neutral monetary policy. At the last FOMC meeting of 2003, the Fed kept its language that rates would remain low for a “considerable period” but the Fed adopted a nearly symmetrical view towards inflation which was viewed at the time as the Fed’s first step toward a tighter policy bias. As 2003 ended, the marketplace was expecting the Fed to raise the funds rate target by 25 basis points by summer 2004 and by another 25 basis points by autumn 2004. Fiscal Policy – Another key factor behind the surge in the US economy in the latter half of 2003 was the Bush tax cuts, which created a very stimulative fiscal policy. During the 2003 fiscal year (which ended September 30, 2003), the Bush tax cuts put an extra $117 billion of cash into taxpayers’ pockets, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The tax cut stimulus will continue into 2004 with some $120 billion in tax cuts in fiscal 2004. Although consumers typically spend only about one-third of their tax cuts (with the rest going to savings and debt payoffs), the tax cuts nevertheless represented an important shot in the arm for the economy in 2003.
Labor market – There was a great deal of talk during 2003 about a “jobless recovery” since the economy showed positive GDP growth during every quarter in 2003 and yet the US labor market worsened in early 2003 and only began to show a mild recovery in the latter half of the year. The US unemployment rate peaked in June 2003 at a 10year high of 6.4%. The unemployment rate then slowly tailed off through the end of 2003 and fell to 5.7% by December 2003. Still, that showed a much worse unemployment situation than the remarkable 34-year low of 3.8% posted just several years ago in April 2000. The payroll data also displayed the dismal US labor market seen during 2003. The US economy lost a net 53,000 jobs in 2003, following a loss of 563,000 jobs in 2002 and 1.782 million jobs in 2001. For the entire labor market recession, which began in earnest in April 2001, the US economy lost a net 2.464 million jobs through December
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2003 based on the establishment survey payroll data. The dismal US labor market seen in the 2000-2003 period undercut the overall economy by slashing personal income and by dampening consumer spirits. Businesses during the 2000-2003 period cut their labor forces as far as they could in order to minimize their expenses, repair their profit margins, and keep their risks down in the event of another external shock to the economy such as the 9/11 terrorist attack. Still, as 2003 ended, the US labor market was showing some signs of life. Payroll jobs rose in the last four months of the year and businesses were under pressure to hire more workers due to the sharp upturn in the US economy.
Inflation – The US consumer price index (CPI) peaked in early 2003 at a 2-1/4 year high of +3.0%, but then eased to a 14-month low of +1.8% by November 2003. That was only 0.7 points above the cyclical trough of +1.1% posted in 2002, which was the lowest CPI growth rate since 1965. The CPI was pushed higher in 2003 by strong energy prices, which surged in early 2003 in the run-up to the US-Iraq war and then rallied further later in 2003 as OPEC kept production levels tight and as the world economy started to recover. Excluding the impact of strong energy prices, the “core” CPI statistics (i.e., excluding the volatile energy and food categories) illustrated the trends toward disinflation. The core CPI fell steadily through 2002 and 2003 from the 8year high of 2.8% seen in December 2001 to the 40-year low of +1.1% seen in November and December 2003, the lowest level for core US inflation since 1963. The low US inflation rate was due to a combination of factors, including tepid economic demand, aggressive competition from overseas producers, downward pressure on US wages with the weak labor market, and a general psychology among US businesses of trying to hold the line on price hikes to boost sales. While the core PPI was still pointing downward as 2003 ended, the general consensus is that US inflation was close to hitting bottom and would likely turn slightly higher in 2004 in response to the stronger US and global economy. Productivity – The US economy in 2003 continued to show extraordinary levels of productivity. Non-farm productivity in Q3-2003 hit a 2-year high of 9.5%, which was only 0.2 points below the 20-year high of +9.7% posted in Q1-2002. The 12-quarter moving average for productivity in Q3-2003 rose to a 30-year high of +4.2%, going all the way back to 1973 when economists generally agree that US productivity showed a permanent downward shift. But since 1995, US productivity has shown a permanent upward shift,
which is thought to be the result of major technological improvements in information, communication and transportation systems. The permanent upward shift in US productivity means that more output is being produced for a given hour of employee labor. That has very favorable consequences for the US economy, including higher wages for employees, higher profits for businesses, and a firewall against inflation for the Fed. The high level of productivity also means that the Fed can allow a higher US GDP growth rate without worrying about the US economy overheating and producing an inflation surge. US Sector Analysis – Through the 2000-2003 economic slump, the US consumer was the hero that helped support the overall US economy and prevent a more serious recession from developing. The US housing sector was also a major contributor to economic growth during the 20002003 economic slump as low mortgage rates helped fuel a housing boom. The consumer and housing sectors were able to offset the sharp decline in business spending seen in 20002003 and weak overseas demand for US exports. But as 2003 ended, all the US economic sectors were looking strong and the US economy was firing on all cylinders. Consumer Spending – US consumer spending is critical to the US economy since it accounts for about two-thirds of the economy. US personal consumption came into 2003 on a weak note at +2.5% in Q1-2003 but then soared to a 13-year high of +6.9% by Q3, which was the strongest level since 1986. US consumer spending was driven by pent-up demand following the war with Iraq and by improved consumer confidence due to the stronger economy in the latter half of 2003 and the improvement in the US labor market. US consumer spending in 2003 was boosted by two key factors: (1) the ongoing mortgage refinancing boom into early 2003, and (2) by the Bush tax cuts. The refinancing boom of 2002 and early 2003 allowed consumers to cut their mortgage costs, thus putting more dollars to spend into their pocketbooks. Likewise, the Bush tax cuts in fiscal 2003 gave consumers an additional $117 billion of cash to either spend or save, thus providing another powerful stimulant to consumer spending. As 2003 ended, the Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index was at 91.7 in December, just mildly below the 15-month high of 92.5 seen in November. That was sharply higher than the 10-year trough of 61.4 seen during March at the height of the US-Iraq war. Still, US consumer confidence in 2004 has a long way to go before recovering to the 120-140 range seen in the late 1990s. US consumer confidence at the end of 2003 continued to be undercut by
the poor US labor market and concerns about job security. Housing – The US housing sector provided strong support for the overall US economy during the 2000-2003 US economic slump. The US housing sector was driven primarily by low mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to a 4-decade low of 5.21% in June 2003. Even though mortgage rates rose during the latter half of 2003, the 30year mortgage rate closed 2003 at 5.81%, which was lower than the rates seen at any time during the 1970s through 1990s. The low level of mortgage rates provided a powerful inducement to consumers to either buy a home for the first time or to trade up to a more expensive home. Existing and new home sales both hit record highs in late 2003. Existing home sales ended 2003 moderately below the record high of 6.68 million units posted in September. New home sales ended 2003 moderately below the record high of 1.200 million posted in June 2003. Housing starts in December posted a 19-year high of 2.088 million units. The boom in the US housing sector had significant carryover implications for the rest of the US economy since there is a strong multiplier effect as home purchasers stock their homes with new appliances and furnishings and renovate older homes. Although the US housing sector is likely to cool somewhat in 2004 if interest rates rise as expected, mortgage rates are still likely to be historically low and the US housing sector is still likely to be a major contributor to the US economy in 2004.
Manufacturing – The US manufacturing sector finally came alive by the end of 2003 after a long period of weakness from late 2000 to early 2003. Although the service sector increasingly dominates the US economy, the US goods manufacturing sector is still a critical sector that accounts for about one-seventh of the US economy. The sharp up-
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ward rebound in the US manufacturing sector towards the end of 2003 was best seen by the rally in the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index in December to a 20-year high of 63.4. The 17.2 point rally in the ISM index to the December 20-year high from the 2-year trough of 46.2 seen in April 2003 illustrated the much-improved fortunes for the US manufacturing sector. In November, US industrial production improved to +2.3% yearon-year, which was a 3-year high. The improvement in US industry production was partially the result of a very tight inventory situation. That meant that once demand emerged, businesses had to order new products quickly because their inventory buffers were already very low. The business inventories-to-sales ratio in December was at a record low of 1.34 months. Despite the improvement in output from the US manufacturing sector, the job situation in the US manufacturing sector remained dismal through the end of 2003. Payrolls through December 2003 fell for 41 straight months, going back to the last increase which was seen in July 2000. Over that time frame, a total of 3.014 million jobs were lost in the US manufacturing sector. There were cyclical factors behind those job losses, but in fact there were also permanent, structural factors during that period as US companies shifted production offshore and as the US imported cheaper manufactured products from overseas. The majority of those 3 million jobs will never come back to the US manufacturing sector. Still, the job situation in the US manufacturing sector should slowly improve in 2004 as the US manufacturing sector slowly regains some of its health.
Business Investment – US business investment fell off a cliff in late 2000 and early 2001 after the stock market bubble burst in mid-2000. US businesses slashed new investment spending in order to conserve cash and to hunker down for the recession that officially started in 2001. But business investment spending hit bottom in 2001, and has been on a steady upward recovery track ever since. In fact by Q3-2003, business investment in equipment and software recovered sharply to a 3-year high of +17.6% from the trough of –16.4% seen in Q2-2001. That helped worked off excess capacities that plagued the high-tech sector following the stock market bubble. The outlook for US business investment looks fairly strong given that many businesses have cut production capacity to the bone and now need to ramp up production in order to meet demand. However, US businesses will remain cautious in 2004 and are not likely to boost production capacity much past a 3-6 month forecast horizon since
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there is still concern about the possibility of another external shock and since there is still some reluctance to believe that the economic surge will last. US Trade – Global demand for US exports slowly improved in 2003, finishing the year at a 3-year high of +7.1% y/y. That was a dramatic improvement from the trough of –15.7% export growth seen in late 2001. The stronger demand for US exports provided a strong boost to the overall US economy. At the same time, US import growth was even stronger than export growth since the US economy was stronger than those of its overseas trading partners during 2003. Import demand during 2003 ranged from +18% early in 2003 to +10% late in the year. The cyclical imbalance caused by the strength of imports relative to exports produced a record high US trade deficit of $489 billion for 2003, or an average deficit of $40.8 billion per month. However, the US trade deficit was also due to the fundamental long-term factors of massive US demand for imported energy and by the weak US savings rate which creates the need to import foreign capital (which is the flip-side of the US trade and current account deficits).
The US current account deficit in 2003 hit record highs, leading to an overall deficit for the year near $550 billion. The fact that the US current account amounts to a record 5% of US GDP presents a severe macroeconomic problem for the US. The US must import about $1.5 billion in foreign capital every calendar day in order to support the US current account imbalance. To the extent that foreigners are reluctant to invest that much capital in dollar-denominated assets, the dollar must fall in order to make those investments cheaper and more attractive to foreign investors. As 2003 ended, the US dollar remained under severe downward pressure and there continued to be talk about the remote possibility of a run on US assets. The OECD in its November 2003 Economic Outlook projected that the US current account deficit would remain very high in 2004 at 5.1% of GDP, posing a continued challenge for the US dollar and for US macroeconomic policy. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist, February 2004.
CHINA BREAKS OUT AS MAJOR PLAYER IN GLOBAL COMMODITY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS It is difficult for Americans, with our relatively stable and comfortable political economy, to comprehend the scale of the changes occurring in China. China is on a remarkable growth path after its leaders in the late 1970s decided to throw off the burden of socialist economics and adopt an aggressive market-driven and export-driven growth model. This has led to a massive scale of economic growth in China, to the extent where two Goldman Sachs economists have predicted that the Chinese economy in 25 years will surpass that of the US. In fact, China is currently creating much of the ongoing rally in commodity prices and has become an increasingly important player in the global financial markets as well. This report will investigate the extent of China’s growing influence in the global commodity and financial markets. China’s demand potential is massive China has 1.287 billion people, according to the latest CIA World Factbook data, a population that is roughly 1 billion more than the US population of 290 million. China’s population, combined with its strong economic growth since the late 1970s, has pushed its $1.24 trillion economy into position as the sixth largest in the world, but still it is only 12% of the size of the US economy. However, these figures are understated because they ignore the fact that China has a severely undervalued currency, which makes the simple conversion of the size of its economy into dollars at the fixed currency rate deceptive. The more accurate way to convert the size of the Chinese economy into dollars is to use “purchasing-power parity”, which uses a currency rate based on equalized product prices rather than the fixed currency rate to convert the Chinese economy into dollar terms. When one uses the purchasing-power parity method of comparing China’s economy to the rest of the world, China’s economy is the second largest economy in the world next to the US. The CIA World Factbook, using purchasing-power parity, places the size of China’s GDP output in 2002 at $5.989 trillion, well ahead of Japan’s $3.651 trillion economy and Germany’s $2.16 trillion economy. Based on this method, China’s economy is 57% of the US GDP, which is $10.45 trillion. Despite the large size of China’s overall economy, however, its per-capita GDP was only $5,000 in 2003, as reported in the CIA World Factbook using purchasing-power parity. That is less than one-seventh of the US’s per capita GDP of $37,600. The $32,600 per-capita difference between Chinese and US GDP adds up to a total of nearly $42 trillion when multiplied by China’s population. That means that it would take an additional $42 trillion of GDP output for the average Chinese citizen to catch up to the living standard of the average US citizen. That is roughly four times the size of yearly US GDP output. But whatever numbers are used, there is a massive amount of economic demand in China that is waiting to be tapped. To repeat, it would take $42 trillion worth of GDP output (or four times the US economy) just to bring China up to current American living standards, and that does not include future population growth or any attempt to exceed
current US living standards. That demand includes all types of housing and personal property, such as cars, appliances, clothes, electronics etc, that Chinese consumers would undoubtedly like to acquire. Much of this demand will eventually come from the rural poor who are now moving into China’s cities in massive numbers. Chinese President and Communist party leader Hu Jintao, the successor in 2003 to former President Jiang Zemin, announced a “people first” program that includes bettering the lives of some 800 million rural residents. Part of the government’s plan is to transfer between 300 million and 500 million rural residents into cities by 2020. If the government’s goal is taken at face value of moving 300 million people into cities in the next 16 years, the lower end of its target range, that would involve nearly 19 million people per year. That is the equivalent of building more than two cities the size of metropolitan New York City every year. That is the source of the huge domestic demand for China’s construction industry and for the raw commodities that feed the construction industry such as lumber, concrete, steel, copper, plastic, etc. But the source of China’s economic growth is not coming from just internal domestic demand. In fact, much of China’s growth is coming from exports because China consciously adopted the export-driven method of economic development that has proven to be so successful in countries such as Japan and the Asian Tigers. China is aggressively developing its export industries in order to employ its citizens and pull its overall economy up by its bootstraps. As a result, China’s demand for raw commodities is due to domestic demand but also to its export industries. Chinese Economy Expected to Maintain Strong Growth The Chinese economy in 2003 grew by +9.1%, well above its average growth rate of +7.5% seen in the 1998-2002 period. The Chinese government expects GDP growth of more than +7% in 2004. The Chinese GDP growth rate in 2003 of +9.1% far outstripped that of any of the G7 countries of +5.6% in the UK, +4.3% in the US, +2.1% in Canada, +0.9% in Japan, and +0.6% in the Euro-Zone.
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Remarkably, China has been able to sustain its average GDP growth rate over the last six years without significant inflation. China’s inflation rate averaged near zero in the 6 years through mid-2003, but then started climbing in late 2003 to reach a 6-1/2 year high of +3.2% year-on-year in January 2004.
The strong Chinese GDP growth rate of +9.1% in 2003, combined with the rise in the CPI to the 6-1/2 year high of +3.2%, has led to fears that the Chinese economy is overheating. The money supply is growing at a torrid rate of +18% due in part to China’s effort to suppress the value of the yuan by aggressively buying dollars and pumping yuan into China’s banking system. Chinese authorities in late 2003 and early 2004 took some action to try to cool their economy by announcing that banks should limit lending growth to just +16% rather than the +21% growth seen in 2003. In addition, the government started refusing permits for new production facilities in some industries such as aluminum and cellular phones, and restricting lending in certain industries such as property and construction. But it is not clear whether this will be successful in curbing lending. Chinese authorities are very reluctant to raise interest rates to cool credit growth and thus slow the economy because that would put additional upward pressure on the yuan and hurt its export industries. Chinese authorities have so far put off an interest rate hike, but it appears likely that an interest rate hike will have to come in 2004 along with additional restrictions on lending. In short, Chinese authorities are doing a high-wire act as they try to foster strong economic growth in their country and boost employment without causing a bubble that will eventually collapse into a recession. The country is already seeing not only macroeconomic imbalances, but is also experiencing shortages in raw materials such as coal, oil, and steel. In addition, there has been a surge in industrial accidents and there are serious environmental problems. Nevertheless, China is expected to muddle through its various economic and social problems and maintain a strong GDP growth rate through 2004. Chinese trade surges As China pursues its export-led development model, its foreign trade has surged. As seen in the nearby chart, exports have quintupled in the past decade. Foreign trade now accounts for more than one-half of China’s GDP, compared with only about 23% of GDP in the US and 21% in
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Japan. In fact, in 2003 China eclipsed Japan to become the third largest trading nation in the world behind only the US and Germany.
China became a full member of the world’s trading system in December 2001 when it became a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). That gave China preferential trading status with the world’s key economies but also obligated China to cut its trade and tariff barriers.
With the surge in exports, China’s trade surplus has also grown in the past decade, as seen in the nearby chart. However, the Chinese trade surplus reached a peak in 1998 and has been more moderate since then. The reason behind the decline in the trade surplus was a surge in import growth, which has actually exceeded export growth. In 2003, Chinese exports grew about +33% while imports grew even faster by +39%. Thus while China is often excoriated by US politicians for its emphasis on exports, the data shows that China is also a huge importer as well.
China has also become a major exporter of plastic products, as seen in the nearby chart. This has led to China becoming a major importer of raw plastic and also of petroleum to be used as a source of domestically produced raw plastic. US trade deficit with China has grown but so have exports to China
China is heavily dependent on raw material imports to feed its domestic economy and its export industries. However, China also has many assembly plants that import parts and partially finished goods and then use cheap labor to assemble and export the final product. These assembly parts are in such industries as textiles, electronics, and machinery. As seen in the nearby charts, China’s exports of electrical and mechanical products, and new technology products, have grown rapidly in the past two years to record highs.
The US trade deficit with China has been steadily growing in the past decade, as seen in the nearby chart. This is due to the fact that US imports from China have been growing much faster than US exports to China in terms of absolute dollar amounts. US imports from China increased by $27 billion (a 22% increase) to $152 billion in 2003 from $125 billion in 2002. Meanwhile, US exports to China rose by $6 billion (+28%) to $28 billion in 2003 from $22 billion in 2002. The fact that US imports rose faster than exports in absolute dollar terms pushed the US trade deficit with China up by 20% in 2003 to $124 billion from $103 billion in 2002.
China has also become a major exporter of textile products, which has turned China into a major importer of cotton, prices for which rallied 47% in 2003. Chinese buying of cotton is expected to be especially heavy in 2004 since the US Department of Agriculture is forecasting that China’s domestic cotton crop will drop by 14% in 2004.
The growth in the US trade deficit with China has made China the new bogeyman for Washington’s politicians, much like Japan was back in the 1980s. Populist US politicians are claiming that China is using unfair trade practices and a cheap currency to steal both jobs and export opportunities from the US. However, US consumers are in fact benefiting from this trade with China since they are able to buyer cheaper goods and thus save money to buy other goods. Also lost in the political rhetoric about the threat posed by Chinese imports is the fact that US exports to China have more than tripled over the past decade. China is now the US’s fastest growing export destination, with US ex-
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ports to China rising 28% in 2003 from 2002. China is a particularly aggressive buyer of some US farm products like soybeans and, in fact, the US in 2003 actually ran a trade surplus with China in agriculture goods. China is also a key source of demand for goods exported from its trading partners in Asia. China accounts for more than one-third of the increase in total exports by countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and Taiwan. In order to curb the US trade deficit with China, the Bush Administration has been putting pressure on China to revalue its currency higher. This is because of complaints by US exporters that China is artificially depressing the value of its currency in order to keep its export prices cheap. The Chinese government has kept the yuan pegged at 8.28 yuan per dollar since 1995. In fact, the Chinese currency is severely undervalued as measured by the Economist magazine’s “Big Mac Index.” In a light-hearted, but surprisingly effective way, the Economist uses McDonald’s Big Mac as a benchmark product to apply the purchasing-power parity (PPP) theory to see whether currencies are over or under valued. The basic idea of purchasing-power parity is that goods should be similarly priced in different nations if their currencies are fairly aligned. The January issue of the Economist found that the cheapest comparable hamburger in China is $1.23, compared with the average price of $2.80 for a Big Mac in the US. The Economist says that suggests the Chinese yuan is undervalued against the dollar by a whopping 56%. Chinese authorities have been doing everything they can to resist an upward revaluation in the yuan because that might dent Chinese exports and also might cause problems within the Chinese banking system. However, there is little doubt that Chinese authorities will have to make at least a small upward adjustment in the yuan in coming quarters. Chinese demand for raw commodities is surging Chinese demand for raw commodities has been a key factor driving the sharp rally seen in commodity prices in the 2001-2003 period. China cannot produce all the raw commodities it needs to feed both its domestic and export industries, and thus Chinese imports of raw materials have surged in recent years. This has put sharp upward pressure on the global prices of those commodities. Several examples of how Chinese demand has pushed up commodity prices follow.
Steel – China is the world’s largest steel consumer. China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s steel consumption in 2003 was 260 million tons, which accounts for 36% of the world’s total consumption of 720 million tons. China has been unable to produce all that steel domestically and as a result its imports of iron ore and rolled steel have risen dramatically. Specifically, Chinese imports of iron ore, which is the main ingredient in steel, has grown by more than 60% in the past two years. Chinese imports of rolled steel have tripled in the past two years. Chinese steel consumption stems in large part from its fast-growing construction and auto industries. The number of Chinese-built autos and trucks is expected to soar to 6 million vehicles in 2005, up 33% from 2000. In response to the Chinese demand and the increased world demand, steel prices spiked upward in February 2004 by 30-50% from just a month earlier. In fact, US steel companies that use scrap steel as their raw material have been feeling severe pain as scrap steel prices soar. The price of scrap steel has more than doubled to $350 per ton from the $100-150 per ton a year earlier. US exports of steel scrap in 2003 rose 21% from 2002 to 12 million metric tons, according to the US Geological Survey. China has been buying up US scrap steel for use in its steel making plants, thus creating shortages and putting an upward squeeze on steel prices.
Copper – Copper provides an excellent proxy for industrial commodity demand in general, because it is a key metal used in the construction, electrical, manufacturing, and auto industries. For example, the average US singlefamily home contains about 400 pounds of copper in wiring and pipes, and an auto has about 50 pounds of copper, according to the Copper Development Association. As a re-
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sult, with China’s fast-growing construction and auto industries, among others, copper is in heavy demand in China. Copper consumption in China soared by an estimated 20% in 2003 and China consumed about 20% of the world’s copper in 2003. Chinese copper imports, as the nearby chart shows, have risen by 250% in the past three years. Chile is a major copper producer and its central bank reports that copper exports to China in January 2004 rose 37% year-onyear while exports to the US fell 54%, providing dramatic evidence of how copper exports from Chile are being diverted from the US to China. China’s aggressive buying has been a key reason behind the fact that copper prices have nearly doubled in the past year to hit a new 8-year high.
thus crowding out other world oil consumers. The source of the increasing demand for crude oil in China is for auto and truck gasoline, factories, raw material for the petrochemical and plastics industries, and electricity production. In the auto sector, for example, the number of autos in China is expected to quintuple to 100 million within the next decade, according to the Development Research Center, a Chinese research group, which would be about half of the autos in the US. Chinese demand for gasoline is likely to quintuple as well within the next decade. China’s heavy consumption of crude oil, combined with its own lackluster domestic production, has forced China out into the world oil markets to try to find new supplies. China has been trying to secure oil fields for its national oil companies, but has mostly been buying crude oil on the world oil markets, thus driving up prices. In fact, Chinese demand was a key factor keeping oil prices high through 2003. Coal is another key commodity in China because China relies on coal for 70% of its electricity production. China consumed about 1.5 billion tons of coal in 2003, accounting for more than 30% of world consumption. China has been experiencing serious electricity shortages in many parts of the country and its demand for coal for electricity production will grow in coming years.
Aluminum - Another key raw material for the construction and auto industries is aluminum. The nearby chart shows how Chinese aluminum imports have roughly doubled in the past two years. Aluminum prices in the past year have rallied to current levels near $1,700 per metric ton from about $1,400 per metric ton a year earlier, representing a rally of about 20%.
Energy – With its booming economy, China surpassed Japan in 2003 as the world’s second largest oil consumer. China’s consumption of 5.4 million barrels per day falls behind only the US’s consumption of 20.2 million barrels per day. To meet its needs, China’s oil imports in 2003 rose roughly 30% from the previous year to 2 million barrels per day. Chinese oil imports now account for more than a third of its total consumption. Moreover, China’s oil imports will double to 4 million barrels per day by 2010 and grow to 85% of its total consumption by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to Cambridge Energy Associates, China’s share of total world oil consumption will grow to 9% by 2010 from the current level of 7%,
Soybeans – China is also a major player in the agricultural markets with its need to feed 1.3 billion people. China grows only about one-half the soybeans it needs and must therefore import more than half of its soybean consumption from overseas. China is expected to import a record 808 million bushels of soybeans in 2004, which would be more than double its 2003 imports, according to a recent estimate from the US Department of Agriculture. Chinese buying was a major factor pushing soybean prices higher in 2003 as China imported $5.4 billion worth of soybeans according to Chinese government statistics. Commodity Exchanges – A key sign of China’s growing importance in the world commodities markets is the growing trading volume on China’s commodity futures exchanges. China had about 60 futures exchanges in the early 1990s but Chinese regulators became concerned about rampant speculation and forced the merger or closure of most of its commodity exchanges into the current three exchanges. Volume at China’s three futures exchanges hit a record high of $1.3 trillion in 2003, which compares favorably to the $2 trillion volume at the London Metals Exchange in 2003. The Shanghai Futures Exchange currently trades copper and plans to roll out a contract for fuel oil in the near
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future. The Dalian commodity exchange trades soybeans and plans to roll out a corn contract. The Zhengzhou commodity exchange trades cotton and plans to roll out a lowquality wheat contract. The Chinese futures exchanges are also planning to roll out futures contracts for sugar, rice, crude oil, and stock indices once the China Securities Regulatory Commission grants its permission. The Chinese government has moved very slowly in allowing the futures market to develop. Chinese nationals are not allowed to trade on foreign futures markets without a special hedging permit, and foreigners are generally not allowed to trade on Chinese exchanges. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Dalian commodity exchange on November 15, 2003, signed an information-sharing agreement with a view toward developing products together. Both exchanges currently have soybean contracts. The CBOT entered the agreement with the Dalian as a means to gain a foothold in China when regulators start to ease up on trading restrictions. With China’s massive trade in raw commodities, the local futures markets are likely to grow quickly for both hedging and speculative purposes, once regulators can ensure controlled growth and fair markets. Chinese Stocks Offer Opportunities and Risks The Chinese stock market is a tale of two markets — stocks traded outside China and stocks traded inside China. There are about 1,200 Chinese stocks listed on China’s two mainland stock exchanges, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Stocks traded inside China are represented in the nearby chart by the Shanghai Composite Index, which is comprised of A and B shares of Chinese companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Stocks traded outside China are represented in the same chart by the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which is comprised by 32 mainland state-owned Chinese companies (H-Shares) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The indices are plotted with a common percentage index scale with January 1995 set at 100. Stocks that trade inside China did well during the late 1990s and into early 2001 as seen by the rally in the Shang-
hai Composite Index. However, their performance since then has been poor, with a 21% loss in 2001 and an 18% loss in 2002. The losses in 2001 and 2002 have yet to be overcome by the 10% rally in 2003 and the 12% rally in January/February 2004. By contrast, the Hang Seng China Enterprises index, representing stocks listed outside mainland China, fared
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poorly in the late 1990s, traded sideways through 2002, but then rallied sharply by 152% in 2003. The index by early 2004 had more than doubled from the level seen at the beginning of 2003. The recent strong performance of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is representative of other Chinese stock benchmarks that trade outside China, such as US mutual funds that invest in Chinese stocks and the American Depository Receipts (ADRs) of Chinese companies that trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The domestic Chinese stock market has been hurt by a number of factors. The key factor is overhang from the fact that the Chinese government owns about two-thirds of the total stock in listed shares, representing about $300 billion in non-tradable shares. The markets are fearful of a bloodbath if the government starts to try to sell its shares into the marketplace. In addition, stocks listed inside China are not subject to strict rules on accounting, transparency, disclosure, and corporate governance, thus increasing the risks of those stocks. Moreover, there are concerns about spillover effects into the stock market from the poor health of China’s largest banks and brokerage firms. China also has yet to develop an educated investor class of individuals who have the money to invest in stocks. The Chinese government has taken some steps to try to attract foreign investment into China’s stock market in order to support prices. Prior to 2002, foreign investors were only allowed to buy B-shares in Chinese companies. Ashares, which generally trade at a higher premium, were reserved for Chinese investors. However, the Chinese government started a program in late 2002 called the Qualified Financial Institutional Investor (QFII) program that allowed 10 large global investment banks to buy A-shares and then resell those shares to global institutional investors. This program has brought some $800 million of new investment into China’s domestic stock market in the past year, about one-half of the authorized amount. However, the domestic Chinese stock market still suffers from difficult problems that will only be solved with dramatic reform measures from the government. Despite the problems on China’s domestic stock exchanges, global investors are eager to invest in China’s future with its huge population and strong economic growth. The solution for most investors has been to invest in Chinese companies that are listed on exchanges in Hong Kong or New York or to invest in China-focused mutual funds. Investors poured $475 million in new investment into Chinafocused mutual funds in 2003, funds that produced an average return for the year of +63%, according to mutual fund tracker Lipper Inc. Another way to play China is to buy the stocks of global companies that are benefiting with their trade with China or to invest in Asia-Pacific or Emerging Growth mutual funds that have large exposure to China. The sharp rally in Chinese stocks seen in the past year has led to concerns that the rally has overreached and that valuations have become much too high. Valuations on Ashare stocks in China are very high at 30 times trailing earnings. Speculative excess can also be seen by the fact that the closed-end investment company, The China Fund Inc., which trades on the New York Stock Exchange with the symbol of CHN and invests in small and mid-sized Chinese stocks, traded with a share price of 25% to 50% more than the value of its underlying portfolio in early 2004, showing that investors are bidding the closed-end fund up higher than its intrinsic value.
While there are questions about whether now is the time to invest in Chinese stocks, there is little doubt that some Chinese companies and other global companies selling into China will be big winners in coming years as they take advantage of the huge demand that is emerging in China. Chinese influence in debt markets grows with huge foreign exchange reserves
only Japan, which has $673.5 billion. If fact, Asia as a whole now holds $1.94 trillion of the world’s reserves of just over $3 trillion. This has prompted Asian central banks to purchase about two-thirds of the US government debt issued over the past 2 years. The nearby chart shows how foreign entities, primarily foreign central banks, have bought nearly $1 trillion in US Treasury T-bonds and T-notes just since January 1995 and how those purchases picked up sharply in 2002 and 2003 as the US budget deficit soared and Treasury debt sales increased.
China’s foreign exchange reserves have nearly tripled in the past several years to recent levels over $400 billion, giving China some serious clout in the US Treasury security market. There are concerns in the US that China can threaten to stop purchasing Treasury securities, or threaten to sell the Treasury securities it already owns, thus pushing up the key US government’s financing costs and a key US benchmark interest rate. How did China acquire these reserves? China is running a trade surplus of about 250 billion yuan or US$30
billion. Because China has a non-convertible currency, the government requires exporters to turn their dollars and other foreign currencies over to the central bank to be converted into yuan at the fixed rate of 8.277 yuan per dollar. Thus, by virtue of its trade surplus and its non-convertible currency, the Chinese central bank accumulates US dollars and other foreign currency reserves denominated in euros, yen, and other global currencies. Most of the Chinese central bank’s reserves are in dollars, however, because that is the preferred unit of trade for global commerce. The Chinese central bank wants to earn interest on those dollars and the safest and most liquid place to place those dollars is in US Treasury securities. The Chinese central bank has therefore become a huge buyer of US Treasury securities, with purchases in 2003 running more than $60 billion. As the nearby chart shows, China’s foreign exchange reserves have grown dramatically and totaled $403.3 billion as of January 2004. China’s reserves grew by $160 billion just in 2003. China now has the second highest foreign exchange reserves of any nation in Asia, falling behind
China’s rapid accumulation of reserves is causing a major macroeconomic problem for the nation because the Chinese central bank typically prints new yuan in order to buy the dollars from exporters. This has led to 18% growth in the Chinese money supply. Although Chinese inflation is currently only about 3%, there are concerns that the rapid growth in the money supply will overheat the economy and cause some serious inflation problems down the road. In fact, the Chinese central bank has been trying to cut back on money supply growth and credit creation by “sterilizing” its dollar purchases with offsetting T-bill sales to banks, and by encouraging banks to restrict credit to certain industries. However, the central bank has only achieved modest success in curbing credit and China’s macroeconomic imbalances are in fact growing. The rapid growth of its foreign exchange reserves and the inflationary implications of absorbing those reserves are putting serious pressure on the Chinese central bank to revalue the yuan higher. There is speculation that the Chinese central bank in 2004 will revalue the yuan higher by up to 5% and perhaps even move to a crawling peg against a basket of currencies in 2005 in order to protect itself from dollar weakness. Revaluing the yen will eventually bring some relief to the nation’s macroeconomic imbalances. But in the meantime, China will continue to be a major buyer in the US Treasury market and will wield influence in Washington as a significant financier of the US budget deficit. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist, February 2004.
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FREE-TRADE TALKS PRODUCE SOME SUCCESS BUT MOVE FROM GLOBAL TO REGIONAL Summary – Free trade is one of the cornerstones of the global market economy. Yet the current round of global trade talks, the Doha Round, is at a standstill due to the intractable problem of agriculture subsidies. The US, frustrated by an attack on its agriculture subsidies and by the difficulty of negotiating in the WTO multilateral platform, has instead turned its attention to negotiating a series of regional and bilateral trade agreements. The breakdown of the Doha Round in November 2003 was a big disappointment for those hoping for an extra boost to global GDP in coming years from a successful global trade agreement. Yet all is not lost, and the pressure on the US and EU to curb their agriculture subsidies may yet produce progress in coming years and a better free trade round if and when it finally concludes. Benefits of free trade Economic doctrine teaches that free trade benefits all parties involved by allowing the most efficient producers to produce goods and services that they are best in producing, thus boosting overall GDP output and allowing global consumers to benefit from low prices and good quality for the goods and services that they purchase. Imposing barriers to trade at the borders of nations results in inefficiencies and distortions, thus lowering output and raising prices. In fact, the benefits of free trade can be substantial. The World Trade Organization (WTO), for example, estimates that the 1994 Uruguay Round trade deal boosted world income by somewhere between $109 billion and $510 billion, depending on different assumptions. The WTO also cites economists as estimating that a one-third cut in current barriers to trade in agriculture, manufacturing, and services would boost the world economy by $613 billion, which is equivalent to adding an economy the size of Canada to the world economy. The costs of protectionism The cost of trade barriers can be substantial to consumers in the form of higher prices. The WTO estimates, for example, that European agricultural protectionism results in the average European family of four paying $1,500 per year more in food costs. US consumers may not notice that their sugar is over-priced, but US consumers pay an extra $3 billion per year for sugar, according to the WTO, because of US government policies in protecting the US sugar industry from global competition. Sugar prices in the US are near 20 cents per pound versus 7 cents elsewhere in the world. High US sugar prices decimated the US candy industry, a big consumer of sugar, and resulted in the loss of 7,500-10,000 jobs in the US, according to the Sugar Users Association. In another example, trade restrictions in the textile industry cost UK consumers an estimated 500 million pounds-sterling more for their clothing and about CD$780 million more for Canadian consumers, according to the WTO. Despite theoretical agreement on the overall benefits of free trade, there are concerns about the local dislocations that occur as production moves to more efficient locales,
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since that usually results in lost jobs. Lost jobs are a much more visible manifestation of free trade than the diffused benefits of higher overall GDP output and lower prices for consumers. Concerns about lost jobs often lead to calls for protectionism, which some politicians are only too happy to accommodate. Protectionist rhetoric sometimes wins more votes that promoting the benefits of free trade. Yet, protectionism causes insidious damage to an economy by raising prices and undercutting exports. The most notorious example of a disastrous protectionist policy was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 passed by the US Congress, which caused US trade to plunge and is widely blamed as a key factor that worsened the impact of the Great Depression. The Smoot-Hawley debacle traced its roots to promises by Herbert Hoover during the 1928 presidential election to help farmers who had seen tough times in the 1920s. That mistake provides an important and enduring lesson about the costs of bowing to agricultural protectionism. Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan, in testimony before Congress in March 2004, warned Congress not to succumb to recent signs that “creeping protectionism” was taking hold in Washington. Mr. Greenspan noted that capitalism involves the process of “creative destruction,” a term coined by famed economist Joseph A. Schumpeter. Mr. Greenspan admitted that global competition can be “disruptive” but he said that on balance the US has greatly prospered by being open and flexible. Mr. Greenspan testified, “Time and again through our history, we have discovered that attempting to merely preserve the comfortable features of the present, rather than reaching for new levels of prosperity, is a sure path to stagnation.” The current mishmash we call the world trading system reflects the conflicted views on the benefits of free trade. Many nations want free trade to boost their exports, but not when it comes to protecting themselves from imports. These countries want to protect their favored local industries, which provide jobs for their people and political support for their politicians, even if those industries are highly inefficient and consumers in their country could buy the same or better quality products from overseas at a lower cost. The governments in those countries keep protecting these favored local industries even though their consumers pay higher prices, and even though other industries in their country might benefit if they entered free trade agreements that gave their other industries better access to foreign markets. Adopting free trade requires political leadership and faith in the ability of a nation to adapt. The movement to global free trade only moves forward in fits and starts, with each major step forward only coming after long and difficult negotiations and compromises. Yet, there does continue to be progress toward a freer global trading system. Bush administration plays the reluctant free trader The Bush Administration has aggressively pursued free trade talks on a multitude of fronts, including within the WTO, within the Americas, and with a number of different countries in bilateral talks. The Bush Administration has
had a number of successes, including the Central American Free Trade Agreement, and bilateral agreements with Australia and other nations. Nevertheless, the Bush Administration has been criticized for playing politics with trade and for coddling selected US industries such as steel, sugar, cotton, and others. The Bush Administration soon after coming into office succumbed to pressure from the steel industry for tariff protection from foreign competitors. In an ill-conceived bow to protectionist political pressures, the Bush Administration and Congress in 2002 approved steel tariffs ranging from 8% to 30%, covering roughly 80% of steel products produced in the US. However, the Bush Administration was finally forced to lift the steel tariffs in December 2003 when the WTO ruled that the tariffs were illegal and authorized Europe and Asian nations to impose retaliatory tariffs against the US. Rather than challenge the authority of the WTO and take a hit on retaliatory tariffs on other US exporting industries, the Bush Administration backed down and repealed the steel tariffs. The timing was fortuitous because just two months later, steel consumers (as opposed to steel producers) were in Washington screaming about high steel prices, something the Bush steel tariffs actually promoted in the previous year. The steel tariff debacle provided another lesson highlighting the harmful overall effect of tariffs and reinforcing the benefits of letting the marketplace do its job by allowing buyers and sellers of products and services to mediate supply, demand and prices without undue interference from the government. In another protectionist move, the Bush Administration in November 2003 placed limits of the imports of Chinese-made knit fabric, dressing gowns, and bras, by invoking the highly questionable tactic of using a safeguard clause in WTO regulations to protect against a sudden surge in imports. The Bush Administration was roundly criticized by free trade observers for that unilateral action against China, which is at odds with the spirit of WTO rules. The Bush Administration has also engaged in other trade spats with China. Most recently, the Bush Administration in mid-March 2004 said that the US would file the first formal trade case against China at the WTO charging that China imposes an discriminatory tax on imported semiconductors. If the Bush Administration goes ahead with its plans, that would be the first formal trade case against China since China joined the WTO in 2001.
Growth in global trade outpaces GDP growth Despite difficult free talks and various trade spats, world trade on the whole has moved forward at an impressive rate. In the past 50 years, world trade has grown by an average of +6% per year, faster than GDP growth. The chart above shows how world trade has grown faster than GDP growth on average since 1980. Increased world trade has been sparked by lower trade barriers and technological improvements in global commerce in transportation, communications, information, and finance. The chart above also shows that world trade is highly dependent on the business cycle, rising in good economic times and falling in bad times. During the global economic slump in late 2000 to early 2003, world trade growth fell sharply. However, the IMF estimates that world trade in 2004 will improve to +5.5%, faster than projected world GDP growth of +4.1%. Development of the world trading system The current world trading system was built after World War II with the development of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT provided the fundamental rules and negotiating platform to promote free trade. The GATT Uruguay Round in 1986-94 then succeeded in creating the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, which has now taken over responsibility for world trade. Membership in WTO is voluntary, but upon joining, a nation agrees to abide by WTO trading rules. The WTO has nearly 150 member nations and accounts for 97% of world trade. The WTO key functions are as follows (see www.wto.org): • • • • • •
Administering trade agreements Acting as a forum for trade negotiations Settling trade disputes Reviewing national trade policies Technical assistance and training for developing nations Cooperating with other international organizations
Being a member of the WTO carries benefits such as lower-cost access to the markets of other members. But being a member also carries responsibilities such as lowering tariffs and other trade barriers. The most visible recent member was China who joined the WTO in 2001. China’s trade has soared in the past several years, in part because of its WTO membership and its full integration into the world trading system. Prospects for the Doha Round The Doha Round is the current round of global trade talks that began in November 2001 at the fourth WTO Ministerial Conference in Doha, Qatar. The stated deadline for the Doha Round is January 1, 2005. The Doha Round is focused on lowering trade barriers in agriculture, textiles, and services. The World Bank has estimated that a successful Doha Round could raise global GDP by more than $500 billion per year by 2015 and that 60% of that gain would go to poor countries. The Doha Round is currently at a standstill and the prospects look bleak for an agreement before the deadline in less than 10 months. The Doha Round broke down at the
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WTO ministerial meeting in Cancun, Mexico in September 2003 after an impasse between the poor nations and the rich nations. The trouble started when the proposal by the EU and the US on cutting agricultural support was far less than other key parties expected when the Doha Round began. The EU, for example, planned to keep in place its agricultural export subsidies, one of the worst types of trade protection. Support by developed nations to their farmers has been estimated to be running at $300 billion per year for the past 15 years. The protection of farmers in the developed countries means that there is excess production dumped on the world markets, thus depressing the world prices of agricultural products and forcing farmers in developing countries out of business. US support of the cotton industry is particularly egregious with the US government providing some $4 billion of subsidies to the cotton industry each year. The government subsidies have caused overproduction of cotton in the US, which is in turn dumped on world markets and depresses cotton prices. Weak cotton prices through early 2002 decimated cotton farmers in developing nations and infuriated African nations that depend on cotton exports as one of their primary sources of exports and foreign exchange. Cotton is only one example of how US taxpayer dollars are used to support the US agricultural industry and cause collateral damage outside the US. The US government spends an estimated $19 billion per year in total on farm subsidies. Agricultural subsidies in Europe are even larger than in the US. Under the EU’s common agricultural policy (CAP), the EU props up local agricultural prices to keep inefficient farmers in business and the excess production is then dumped on the world markets, driving even efficient producers overseas out of business because of artificially low world prices. The EU also imposes tariffs on agricultural imports to keep lower priced agricultural products out of the EU. In response to the paltry offer by the EU and the US on agriculture in the Doha Round talks, an alliance formed of emerging countries called the G21, led by Brazil, China, and India. The G21 group, which represents half the world’s population and two-thirds of the world’s farmers, demanded much more aggressive action by the EU and US on cutting agricultural protection. Yet the G21 offered little in exchange for big cuts in US and EU agricultural subsidies and most of the G21 countries wanted to keep intact their own agricultural trade protections. The EU and US responded to the G21 challenge by playing hardball on agriculture and other issues, and the Cancun ministerial meeting then quickly broke down in acrimony. In an effort to get the ball rolling again, US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick in January 2004 sent letters to all the member nations of the WTO expressing his desire to restart global trade talks and convene another ministerial meeting later in 2004. The US made clear that it would put more pressure on the EU to reform its CAP agricultural support policies. Yet progress on restarting the global trade talks will be difficult. Following up on its attack on US and EU agricultural subsidies, Brazil brought a legal challenge against the US at the WTO for its cotton subsidies. A decision is expected by spring. WTO members are now free to bring legal action at the WTO on farm issues now that the so-called peace period has ended whereby nations involved in the Uruguay
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Round agreed not to bring trade actions on agriculture until after 2003. Some nations such as Brazil believe that they are better off trying to have the WTO declare US and EU agriculture subsidies illegal, rather than trying to twist arms at the bargaining table. The breakdown of the Doha ministerial talks in Cancun in September raised larger questions about whether a global trade agreement can ever be reached under the WTO negotiating platform. A global trade agreement at the WTO must be reached by consensus and any single nation, or groups of nations, can basically torpedo the entire process. There are a few smaller nations that are more interested in grandstanding for their local political constituents than in seriously negotiating toward another world trade agreement. US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick has referred to several “won’t do” nations who he says are good at making demands but are poor at creating compromises. US strategy switches to bilateral and regional trade agreements After the Cancun debacle, the US moved toward a policy of focusing on bilateral and regional trade agreements, rather than a global agreement through the WTO. These agreements are easier for the US to negotiate and difficult issues such as agriculture can simply be left out of the agreement. In addition, if the US can negotiate enough bilateral and regional agreements, then eventually these trade blocs might be cobbled together into a global agreement. This is a clearly inferior approach to an all-encompassing world trade agreement, but at least nations are still making progress at lowering trade barriers, making compromise easier when it comes time to negotiate a grand global agreement.
Free trade talks in the Americas reach impasse Soon after the WTO talks broke down in September, the Bush Administration turned its attention to the “Free Trade Area of the Americas” (FTAA) trade negotiations ahead of the ministerial meeting that took place in late November 2003 in Miami. The FTAA initiative was formally launched nine years ago and seeks to combine 34 countries in the western hemisphere (North, Central and South America) into a free trade zone encompassing 800 million people. However, the same problems that torpedoed the WTO talks in Cancun quickly threatened the FTAA talks. In particular, Brazil made the same demands for the US to slash
its agricultural subsidies in return for considering extending free trade into services and protections for intellectual property. Brazil is a large agricultural producer and wants freer access to US markets. At present, for example, Brazil can’t sell raw beef to the US because of presumptive health reasons and Brazil’s sugar exports face quotas and tariffs as high as 200%. For its part, the US refused to negotiate in FTAA on agriculture except within the context of global negotiations also involving Europe and Japan. The US didn’t want to make concessions on agriculture in the FTAA without extracting concessions from the EU, Japan and other nations on agriculture as well. In order to avoid another embarrassing collapse at the Miami talks, the FTAA group agreed to water down the FTAA framework by adopting a two-tiered approach whereby members could agree to core requirements but opt out of more controversial free-trade issues. This has been referred to “FTAA-lite” or an “a la carte” approach to an FTAA trade agreement. FTAA negotiators held high-level talks in early February to discuss what should be in the core requirements. While the talks are progressing, any FTAA-lite agreement would clearly be much less than members had earlier hoped and there is no assurance that even an FTAA-lite can be finished by the deadline in early 2005.
NAFTA reaches 10th birthday Cafta is being viewed as an extension of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the 10-year-old free trade agreement among the US, Canada, and Mexico. NAFTA has generally been considered a success, although it has not lived up to some of the highest expectations when it was signed.
Central American Free Trade Agreement (Cafta) is reached in December After the FTAA meeting in Miami, the US turned its attention to regional and bilateral trade talks within the Americas. On December 17, 2003, the US announced the “Central American Free Trade Agreement,” or Cafta, involving El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The Cafta group was later expanded to include Costa Rico in late January and the Dominican Republican in mid-March 2004. The Cafta region includes about $30 billion worth of two-way trade with the US, i.e., $16.03 billion worth of US imports from the region and $14.09 billion of US exports to the region. President Bush has signaled that he will sign Cafta, allowing Congress to vote on the pact by the August recess. However, passage may be difficult given that 2004 is an election year when free trade and job losses are political hot potatoes. Aside from the framework of FTAA and Cafta, the US and Chile in 2003 completed a trade agreement that went into effect on January 1, 2004. The US is also pursuing a separate bilateral trade agreement with Panama. As the US was wrapping up Cafta, Brazil made its own moves within South America, seeking to band together with other South American countries to boost their bargaining position with the US in the FTAA talks. South America already has its own free trade zone called Mercosur, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. Associate members include Chile and Bolivia. Brazil is now seeking to bring Peru and Venezuela into Mercosur. Maneuvering between the US and Brazil will be a key to the success of the FTAA talks and indeed to the Doha Round. The marketplace will therefore be carefully watching how US and Brazilian trade relations play out in coming months.
Trade among the US, Canada, and Mexico has grown dramatically in the past 10 years, driven in part by the NAFTA free trade zone. US exports to Canada over the past 10 years have grown by 70% and US exports to Mexico have grown by nearly 250%. At the same time, Canadian exports to the US have nearly doubled, and Mexican exports to the US have more than tripled. The US trade deficits with Canada and Mexico have also grown sharply over the past decade, but that has been the case with US trade with all major trading partners. NAFTA has had a “miniscule” net effect on jobs in the US, according to a report by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, negating the fears fostered by H. Ross Perot in the 1992 presidential election who said NAFTA would cause “a giant sucking sound” of US jobs moving to Mexico. For the US, the benefits from NAFTA mainly come from US consumers being able to purchase goods more cheaply and from increasing US export business to Mexico and Canada. Also, US-based companies can operate more efficiently within North America by having access to tarifffree movement of goods and services through the Mexican and Canadian borders. There is controversy about how well Mexico has fared under NAFTA, but there is general agreement that Mexico is better off with NAFTA than without. Mexico has deepseated problems and a free trade agreement by itself has
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not been enough to pull Mexico out of poverty. In addition, Mexico is now losing ground to China in the competition for low-wage jobs. Yet, Mexico is not turning against trade. On the contrary, Mexico and Japan in early March 2004 agreed on the framework of a free trade agreement. US reaches bilateral agreements with Australia and Morocco The US has been pursuing bilateral trade agreements with a variety of countries outside the big trading blocs. Congress in 2003 approved bilateral trade agreements with Chile and Singapore. US trade negotiators in March 2004 completed a free-trade agreement with Morocco, which now goes to Congress. US negotiators are currently pursuing bilateral trade agreements with Thailand, Bahrain, and four countries in southern Africa. The US already has bilateral free trade pacts in place with Jordan and Israel. The US and Australia in February 2004 reached a free trade agreement. While Australia only has 20 million people, Australia is America’s ninth largest trading partner with $28 billion in two-way trade. The agreement was note-
worthy since Australia is only the second industrialized nation next to Canada to open its markets to the US and the US expects to significantly boost the export of manufactured goods to Australia. However, the US-Australian trade agreement left in place US protection of sugar and Australian subsidies of pharmaceuticals. European Union expansion means larger free trade zone The European Union is by definition a free-trade zone, and it is growing in size. The European Union, with its
economic and political integration, was established with the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. The EU currently consists of 15 nations and will expand to 25 nations in May 2004. A sub-set of the EU, the Euro-Zone nations, have gone further than free trade and have adopted a common currency, the euro. This is an even greater stimulus to free trade because it eliminates the uncertainties and inefficiencies associated with currency fluctuations. Asia negotiates its own free trade agreements Asian nations are also making a push for regional and bilateral trade agreements. As mentioned earlier, Japan in early 2004 reached a free trade agreement with Mexico, which it views as a foot-hold into the US and Canada. Japan also has a trade agreement with Singapore and is pushing for trade agreements with other nations. The nations of southeastern Asia, or ASEAN, entered into a free trade agreement back in 1992 that remains in progress and is due to be fully implemented by 2020. The nations in the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The ASEAN region has a population of about 500 million, combined GDP of $737 billion, and total trade of $720 billion. China is aggressively seeking free trade talks on a variety of fronts. China and ASEAN have agreed to negotiate a free trade agreement. A free trade agreement between China and ASEAN would include 1.7 billion people and $1.2 trillion in two-way trade. China is currently in talks with Australia about the feasibility of negotiating a free trade agreement. On the Indian subcontinent, seven nations in January 2004 entered into the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (Safta). Under Safta, the nations agreed to cut their interregional tariffs beginning on January 1, 2006, to between 0% and 5% over the next decade. The nations in Safta include erstwhile enemies India and Pakistan, along with Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The seven nations in the group, which is called the South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation, account for some 1.5 billion people, many of whom live in poverty. Looking forward There will undoubtedly be further progress on free trade through the remainder of 2004. The US will be pushing for progress in the Doha Round and on the FTAA talks. There will also likely be progress on additional regional and bilateral trade agreements. Progress in 2004 may be slowed, however, by the fact that 2004 is an election year in the US and that free trade and job exports are hot political issues. Nevertheless, world trade negotiators will continue plugging along with the knowledge that free trade is a way to boost world GDP and improve the quality of life for millions of people. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist, March 2004
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MAD COW DISEASE ARRIVES IN NORTH AMERICA IN 2003 AND ROILS THE MARKETS Summary – Mad cow disease, long a problem in Britain, arrived in Canada in March 2003 and in the US in December 2003. Although only one mad cow has been confirmed in the US so far, the fact that mad cow disease has breeched the US border means that the US can no longer consider itself immune from the mad cow problem. The discovery of the mad cow in Washington state resulted in a plunge in cattle prices and the shutdown of US beef exports to more than 50 countries, causing serious disruptions and financial losses in the US beef industry. The US government has so far responded to the problem by trying to reassure the public about the safety of US beef and taking some limited regulatory measures. At this point, however, the US government is not sure how widespread any mad cow problem may be in the US, and it would not be surprising if the government finds additional cases of mad cow with its more aggressive testing program. What is mad cow disease? Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is commonly known as “mad cow” disease because the disease affects the central nervous system and eats away a cow’s brain, causing the cow to act erratically before finally dying. BSE is caused by misfolded proteins called prions, which become infectious and accumulate in neural tissues, thus causing a fatal, degenerative, neurological disease. The disease is usually spread to other cattle by eating contaminated tissues. Tests have shown that the misfolded prions can survive all usual sterilization measures including boiling, cooking, radiation, and the high-pressure steam used on surgical instruments. BSE was first diagnosed in 1986 in Great Britain. The exact origins of BSE are still not known, but it is thought to have started when cattle were given feed that was contaminated with scrapie-infected sheep meat-and-bone meal. Scrapie is a prion disease in sheep that is similar to BSE in cattle. The first cases of transmission of mad cow disease to humans emerged in 1995 when two teenagers in the UK were diagnosed with a variant of the rare disorder known as Cruetzfeldt-Jacob disease (CJD). CJD is known to occur spontaneously in elderly humans, but the type of CJD found in patients that develop the disease from eating BSE-contaminated meat is a variant of spontaneous CJD and is referred to as vCJD. Mad cow disease arrives in Canada in May 2003 In May 2003, veterinary officials in Alberta confirmed that an 8-year-old cow tested positive for BSE. After the animal displayed typical signs of BSE at the slaughter house, the meat from that cow was declared unfit for human consumption and was kept from other meat bound for packing plants and stores, and the rendered byproduct was not mixed with byproduct from other cows. Nevertheless, the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other countries temporarily banned imports of Canadian beef. Three months later in August 2003, the US eased a ban on most types of processed Canadian beef, accounting for about 40%
of the total value of Canadian beef and cattle sales to the US, but still banned live cattle imports. The single case of mad cow disease cost the Canadian beef industry dearly. It is estimated that Canada’s beef industry lost $2.5 billion in the six months after its mad cow case was discovered and the Canadian cattle market is likely to stay depressed for the next several years. A surplus of milk currently exists in Canada because dairy cows cannot be exported due to the US ban on Canadian live cattle, thus putting downward pressure on Canadian milk prices and harming Canadian dairy farmers. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is currently considering whether to allow certain classes of live Canadian cattle and other ruminants to be imported into the US for the first time since May 20, 2003. A decision is expected sometime in April. Because of this, Canadian ranchers are holding onto more of their cattle, awaiting the removal of the ban, instead of sending them to processing plants. If the Canadian live cattle ban is lifted, it could add to the already-large US surplus of beef. It is perhaps surprising to note that Canada’s first brush with mad cow disease actually occurred more than a decade ago. In December 1993, a cow imported from Britain in 1987 was found to have BSE. Canada’s agriculture department (Agriculture Canada) decided to destroy the animal carcass and its 5 herd mates and additional measures were taken immediately to deal with any risk that Canadian cattle might have been affected. Although the disease is not contagious within a herd, other members of the herd may also contract the disease since they eat the same feed. Moreover, if the neural tissues, such as brain and spinal cord, of previously infected cows make it into the feed chain, then other cows could contract the disease. Despite the 1993 case of mad cow disease, Canadian officials did not impose a ban on the use of rendered cattle material in cattle feed until 1997. After the 1993 incident, the Canadian government destroyed any cow imported from Britain between 1982 and 1990 to reduce the risk of further cases. In total, 363 animals were destroyed, including any offspring of the cattle, and their owners compensated. Mad cow disease strikes the US Mad cow disease struck the US on December 22, 2003, when US officials announced that a four-year-old Holstein cow from a diary farm in Mabton, Washington, tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). The cow was considered a “downer” because it was unable to walk, and the Moses Lake plant, following federally mandated procedures, removed the brain and spinal cord for further testing and kept it apart from the meat. The Holstein was slaughtered along with 20 other head of cattle at a Moses Lake, Washington, meatpacking plant and quickly turned into hamburger that was distributed to retailers in eight states and one territory: Alaska, California, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington state. A day after the confirmation of BSE, the USDA ordered a recall of all of the 10,410 pounds of meat made at the plant on the day the infected cow was slaugh-
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tered. Unfortunately, by then much of the meat had already been consumed by humans.
Cattle prices initially plunge Cattle prices quickly plunged once the news emerged that mad cow disease was found in the cow in Washington state. More than 50 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Mexico, all top US beef importers, banned imports of US beef following the December 2003 announcement, threatening an export trade valued at up to $3.8 billion per year. In the matter of a week, February live cattle futures prices plunged by nearly 20 cents per pound or more than 20%. The cattle futures markets were locked limit down for several consecutive sessions. The BSE announcement had collateral effects in markets other than cattle and beef prices. Corn, a staple in the cattle diet, dropped due to fears that a large-scale slaughter of US cattle might be necessary, thus reducing the need for corn feed. At the same time, soybean prices were boosted by expectations that further restrictions on the use of cattle byproducts in the feed for other animals would boost the need for soybeans to add protein to animal feed. Prices were supported for beef-alternatives such as pork and poultry. The shares of publicly traded companies that process beef or own restaurants with beef as a mainstay, such as McDonald’s Corp., dropped as well. Companies and manufacturers of large farm equipment also saw stock prices fall. Companies that process alternatives to beef or sell diagnostic tests to detect BSE saw a gain in their stocks. Meat processing and packaging plants, such as Tyson Foods (with 49% of its business in beef), Cargill Inc., and Swift foods, began laying off workers and reducing the hours and shifts of thousands of workers. Up to 50,000 jobs in various related industries are in jeopardy if the import bans remain in place.
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Despite the initial panic, cattle prices by March 2004 were able recover more than one-third of their initial losses, as seen in the nearby nearest-futures chart of live cattle. The partial recovery in prices was due mainly to the fact that US consumers, who buy about 90% of the beef produced in the US, have maintained their strong consumption demand for US beef. With USDA assurances that US beef is safe to eat and promises for more extensive testing at processing plants this year, consumers are showing confidence in the government’s ability to police the food supply and are continuing to buy beef, thus preventing a melt-down in the US beef industry. Most of the 2.6 billion pounds of US beef that was marked for export will remain here, but the supply glut of beef hasn’t necessarily translated into substantially lower retail beef prices in stores and restaurants. Last year’s record prices for US beef were largely offset by grocers and restaurants that didn’t fully pass along their higher beef costs to consumers and therefore may not be inclined to pass along their savings this year. The US beef industry in 2003 enjoyed a sharp rally in cattle prices, thus providing a price buffer once mad cow disease hit. One of the main reasons for the rally in US cattle prices in 2003 was the discovery of mad cow disease in Alberta, Canada, in May 2003, which prompted the US to ban all imports of Canadian cattle, shrinking US supplies of beef. The US was a big importer of Canadian beef, importing some 1.7 million Canadian cattle in 2002, most of which ended up at meatpackers. Cattle prices in 2003 were also boosted by drought in some areas of the Midwest and Great Plains, which forced US ranchers to shrink the size of their herds due to thinning pastures and underweight cattle. Moreover, consumer demand increased in 2003 for beef due to low-carb, high protein diet trends. How can the US recover from its first mad cow episode? Efforts to recover from mad cow disease in the US fall into several categories. Progress in these areas may eventually convince Japan and other countries to drop their import ban on US cattle, and for US consumers to be fully confident in the safety of the beef supply. So far, only Mexico has eased its ban on US beef, allowing in certain types of processed beef. Tracking system – US investigators determined that the mad cow found Washington state was born in Alberta, Canada, in April 1997, where it most likely ate contaminated feed before being sold 2 years later to a US dairy farm along with a group of 80 other dairy cattle. US federal officials were able to locate and identify only 27 of the 80 cows from the group due to the lack of a national cattle-identification system, as is used in Canada. The USDA has been dragging its feed on considering the possibility of a national cattle-identification system due to the price tag and opposition from the cattle industry. Yet a tracking system would allow quick identification of any future mad cows, the likely source of their infection, and their herd mates. Slaughter-house rules – Since the mad cow discovery, the USDA has decided to ban cattle that are unable to walk from the food supply. The USDA has also banned for human food the most infectious parts of cattle by requiring the removal of brains, spinal cords, and intestines from older cows at slaughter. This will provide at least a first line of
defense that the sickest cows won’t make it into the US food chain. Feed restrictions – Immediately after the discovery of mad cow in December 2003, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which has responsibility for regulating animal feed and pet food, banned the use of cow blood as a milk-supplement for calves. This was due to the fact that studies have suggested that blood may also be infectious. The FDA is currently leaning toward banning the use of ruminant blood and blood products, as well as poultry litter, which could contain currently banned cattle proteins, and human “plate waste,” which consists of food discarded after human use in restaurants. Ruminants are animals such as cows and sheep whose stomachs include four chambers. In 1997, the FDA banned the use of ruminant proteins in feed for other ruminants. The US government has not adopted a blanket ban on the use of cattle or ruminant by-products in the feed for all livestock and pets. Through BSE-contaminated pet food, cats have proven to be susceptible to a feline-version of BSE. There are clearly risks in BSE-type diseases jumping from animal to animal and to humans, and for the diseases to mutate in the process. As mentioned earlier, BSE is thought to have developed when cattle were fed feed contaminated with scrapie-infected sheep remains, meaning scrapie may have transmutated into BSE. Because of the possibility of transmutations, the safest course of action would be to simply have a total ban on the use of cattle byproducts in the feed for any type of animal. So far, the FDA has stated that they want a better handle on the BSE risk situation before it considers any further feed restrictions. Testing – Prior to the outbreak of mad cow disease in the US, the US government was testing 20,000 cows out of the 35 million cows slaughtered each year (i.e., 1 out of every 1,700, or 0.06 of one percent). Immediately after the mad cow discovery, the USDA boosted its target testing number to 40,000 cows displaying the basic symptoms of BSE at slaughterhouses. Recently, the USDA announced a new, one-time plan to test more than 221,000 cattle beginning on June 1, 2004 and lasting 12 to 18 months. The tests will target the cattle that exhibit coordination problems, have died for unknown reasons, or show symptoms of nervous system disorders. The USDA estimates that this group totals 446,000, or 1.3% of the US cattle slaughtered each year. In addition, 40,000 cattle over 30 months old that appear healthy at the time of slaughter will also be tested. This one-time testing program is not designed to ensure that US beef is BSE-free, but to simply determine the statistical prevalence of the disease in the US. This is far short of Japan’s demands that testing be done on all US cattle. Japan requires BSE testing for every cow slaughtered in its country, but that is easier for Japan since Japan slaughters only 1.3 million cattle per year versus 35 million in the US. Since the US is not likely to expand testing to all cattle anytime soon, Japan has indicated that it may settle for allowing the import of cattle that have been tested for BSE. To help with the magnitude of new tests, the USDA plans to certify a network of state and university laboratories to handle mad cow testing. However, the USDA continues to ban testing by outside private laboratories. The USDA has expressed concern that any false positives might cause cattle prices to crash, upset overseas customers, and cause additional US consumer concern about beef safety. How-
ever, critics charge that the USDA is simply trying to preserve its bureaucratic turf and is moving too slowly. Several US companies have expressed their desire to test every cow that goes through their meat-packing plants, but the USDA has gone as far as to warn that anyone testing without its approval could face criminal charges. Consumer awareness – Although danger to the public of contracting variant Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease through mad cow disease is low, consumers can decrease their risks even further by avoiding any material that comes from the head as well as any meat that is taken from close to the spinal column or that contains bone that is part of the spinal cord (e.g., like T-bone). Experts also note that there may be risks in pizza toppings, taco fillings, hot dogs, salami, bologna and other products that contain ground beef and beef from machinery that squeezes out bits of meat that cling to the spinal column and other bones. The FDA also reminds the public that cooking meat will not kill mad cow disease if the meat is infected. UK experience with mad cow The UK is ground zero for the mad cow problem, meaning the UK provides important lessons for the US on what to expect from the disease. The UK outbreak occurred because calves in the UK were fed BSE-contaminated cattle meat-and-bone meal as a source of protein. The UK mad cow epidemic peaked in 1993, and in a decade’s time, caused the eventual destruction of 3.7 million British cattle. Before the infected herds were slaughtered and the outbreak was curbed, approximately 750,000 infected British cows entered the human food chain as hamburgers, sausages, and other meat products. In 1996, Great Britain banned the most infective portions of a cow, brain and spinal cord material, from the human food supply in order to prevent further animal-to-human transmission of mad cow disease. It also banned the use of meat-and-bone meal in animal feed. Britain is still in the final stages of its multiyear BSE epidemic, with 147 animals confirmed infected with mad cow disease in 2003. To date, a total of 139 Britons have died of variant Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease. The disease seems to have peaked and is possibly on the decline with 28 deaths reported in 2000, 17 deaths in 2002, and 18 deaths in 2003. The number of British vCJD cases could increase once again in the future because it is not clear whether the disease incubates in some people longer than in others. Recently, it was reported that a British man died from vCJD after receiving a blood transfusion from an infected donor who also died of vCJD. On the brighter side, the loss of human life was much less than early predictions that up to 500,000 deaths could occur. The British beef industry sustained billions of dollars of losses as countries around the world banned imports of all British beef and beef products. The US banned British beef in 1989 and has not yet lifted its ban. However, the UK beef industry is slowly recovering. UK consumers are becoming more confident about beef safety and Britain’s McDonald’s franchises, Burger Kings, and steakhouses are back to doing brisk business. In July 2003, Great Britain’s Food Standards Agency recommended that the government lift a ban preventing cattle older than 30 months from entering the food chain. The ban had been ordered because BSE tends to show in older cows and the incubation period
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is believed to be 2 to 8 years. As a precaution, the agency has recommended that all older cows must first test negative for BSE before they can be sold as beef, a practice currently followed by other European countries. Mad cow disease may emerge again in the US Although only one mad cow has so far been found in the US, the scope of any mad cow problem in the US is presently unknown because so few cows are tested for BSE in the US. The mad cow that was found in Washington State
was found more by accident than by any statistically accurate testing program since the US at that time only tested 0.06 of one percent of cows slaughtered in a year. The new testing program will be an improvement but it will take up to a year to determine the scope of any mad cow problem in the US. The markets need to be on guard that the steppedup testing program may find additional cases of mad cow disease in the US. Richard W. Asplund, CRB Chief Economist, March 2004
Volume U.S. U .S. Futures Volume H ighlights 2003 in C omparison w ith 2002 2003 R an k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
2003 C ontracts % Eurodollars (3-month), C ME 208,771,164 33.38% E-Mini S&P 500 I ndex, C ME 161,176,639 25.77% T-Notes (10-year), C BT 146,745,281 23.46% T-Notes (5-year), C BT 73,746,445 11.79% E-Mini NASDAQ 100, C ME 67,888,938 10.86% T-Bonds (30-year), C BT 63,521,507 10.16% C rude Oil, NYMEX 45,436,931 7.27% S&P 500 I ndex, C ME 20,175,462 3.23% C orn, C BT 19,118,715 3.06% Natural Gas, NYMEX 19,037,118 3.04% Soybeans, C BT 17,545,714 2.81% Gold (100 oz.), C OMEX Div. of NYMEX 12,235,689 1.96% Heating Oil #2, NYMEX 11,581,670 1.85% Euro FX, C ME 11,193,922 1.79% Unleaded R egular Gas, NYMEX 11,172,050 1.79% Mini ($5) Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex, C BT 10,859,690 1.74% Federal Funds (30-day), C BT 8,271,726 1.32% Soybean Meal, C BT 8,158,445 1.30% TR AKR S C ommodity, C ME 7,424,763 1.19% Soybean Oil, C BT 7,417,340 1.19% Sugar #11, NYBOT 7,140,724 1.14% Wheat, C BT 6,967,416 1.11% Japanese Yen, C ME 6,085,209 0.97% TR AKR S Gold, C ME 6,065,013 0.97% Live C attle, C ME 4,436,089 0.71% NASDAQ 100, C ME 4,421,221 0.71% Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex, C BOT 4,416,302 0.71% T-Notes (2-year), C BT 4,415,906 0.71% C anadian Dollar, C ME 4,219,618 0.67% Silver (5,000 oz), C OMEX Div. of NYMEX 4,111,190 0.66% E-Mini R ussell 2000 I ndex, C ME 3,878,935 0.62% Swiss Franc, C ME 3,596,658 0.58% C offee C , NYBOT 3,211,031 0.51% High Grade C opper, C OMEX Div. of NYMEX 3,089,270 0.49% C otton #2, NYBOT 3,035,992 0.49% Wheat, KC BT 2,632,033 0.42% British Pound, C ME 2,595,155 0.41% TR AKR S Select 50 I ndex, C ME 2,436,069 0.39% Henry Hub Swap, NYMEX 2,356,600 0.38% Lean Hogs, C ME 2,164,155 0.35% C ocoa, NYBOT 2,128,206 0.34% Mexican Peso, C ME 2,123,623 0.34% LMC TR AKR S I ndex, C ME 1,803,316 0.29% Australian Dollar, C ME 1,609,289 0.26% E-Mini S&P 400 I ndex, C ME 1,417,513 0.23% TR AKR S Euro C urrency I ndex, C ME 1,196,525 0.19% LI BOR (1-month), C ME 1,138,358 0.18% Wheat, MGE 1,066,489 0.17% I nterest R ate Swap (10-year), C BT 1,038,777 0.17% TR AKR S I ndex, C ME 994,756 0.16% Top 50 C ontracts 1,027,270,647 C ontracts Below the Top 50 15,698,017 1.51% T OT AL 1,042,968,664 100.00% * For 2002 Top 50 contracts totaled 842,704,977 including 5 contracts that are not among 2003's Top 50.
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Top 50 C ontracts Traded in 2003
2002 C ontracts 202,080,832 115,741,691 95,786,299 50,512,085 54,491,180 56,082,284 45,679,468 23,699,667 18,132,447 24,357,792 14,475,100 9,018,183 10,695,202 6,986,600 10,979,736 2,224,757 6,285,789 7,174,507
% 32.31% 18.51% 15.32% 8.08% 8.71% 8.97% 7.30% 3.79% 2.90% 3.89% 2.31% 1.44% 1.71% 1.12% 1.76% 0.36% 1.01% 1.15%
2002 R an k 1 2 3 6 5 4 7 9 10 8 11 14 13 16 12 36 20 15
6,816,483 6,173,756 6,872,891 4,394,982
1.09% 0.99% 1.10% 0.70%
18 21 17 24
3,851,736 4,903,287 6,485,501 3,203,855 3,134,963 3,135,564 859,885 2,830,738 2,718,508 2,807,286 2,327,960 2,738,536 2,166,469 4,614,721
0.62% 0.78% 1.04% 0.51% 0.50% 0.50% 0.14% 0.45% 0.43% 0.45% 0.37% 0.44% 0.35% 0.74%
25 22 19 26 28 27 45 29 32 30 35 31 37 23
1,931,260 2,079,980 1,354,256 2,697,494 1,049,220
0.31% 0.33% 0.22% 0.43% 0.17%
39 38 40 33 43
1,110,934 1,199,149 661,527 2,469,467 838,994,027 * 12,316,360 851,310,387
0.18% 0.19% 0.11% 0.39%
42 41 48 34
1.45% 100.00%
VOLUME U.S. U.S. Futures Volume Highlights 2003 in Comparison w ith 2002 2003 2003 2002 RANK EXCHANGE CONTRACTS % CONTRACTS 1 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 530,989,007 50.91% 444,537,987 2 Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) 373,669,290 35.83% 276,316,047 3 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)** 111,789,658 10.72% 107,359,719 4 New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)* 18,822,048 1.80% 16,272,144 5 Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) 2,634,424 0.25% 2,755,949 6 OneChicago 1,619,194 0.16% 184,081 7 BrokerTec Futures Exchange 1,356,825 0.13% 2,109,670 8 Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) 1,087,020 0.10% 1,201,543 9 NASDAQ LI FFE Markets 858,900 0.08% 90,091 10 MidAmerica Commodity Exchange 142,298 0.01% 483,156 TOTAL 1,042,968,664 100.00% 851,310,387 ** I ncludes Comex Division. * I ncludes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange.
% 52.22% 32.46% 12.61% 1.91% 0.32% 0.02% 0.25% 0.14% 0.01% 0.06% 100.00%
2002 RANK 1 2 3 4 5 9 6 7 10 8
BrokerTec Futures Exchange (BTEX) FU TU R E 30-Year T-Bonds 10-Year T-Notes 5-Year T-Notes T otal
CONTRACT UNIT 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD
2003 374,115 654,800 327,910 1,356,825
2002 870,832 764,667 474,171 2,109,670
2001 36,293 35,342 17,836 89,471
2000
1999
CONTRACT UNIT 5,000 bu 1,000 bu 5,000 bu 1,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 1,000 bu 60,000 lbs 100 tons 200,000 lbs 1,000 oz 33.2 troy oz 100,000 USD 50,000 USD 100,000 USD 50,000 USD 100,000 USD 200,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 500,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 5,000,000 USD 10 USD x I ndex 5 USD x I ndex 100 x I ndex
2003 6,967,416 22,288 19,118,715 53,404 318,898 17,545,714 250,447 7,417,340 8,158,445 265,234 34,804 145,173 63,521,507 15,707 146,745,281 49 73,746,445 4,415,906 89,342 2,000 543 1,038,777 110,275 94,541 8,271,726 4,416,302 10,859,690 43,321 373,669,290
2002 6,872,891
2001 6,801,541
2000 6,407,531
1999 6,570,025
18,132,447
16,728,748
17,185,442
15,724,845
415,140 14,475,100
440,854 12,150,369
402,190 12,627,950
371,406 12,481,947
6,816,483 7,174,507 193,723 7,723 9,024 56,082,284 10,009 95,786,299 96 50,512,085 3,203,855 486,300
6,034,325 6,743,772 121,661 1,087 717 58,579,290 4,383 57,585,828 213 31,122,401 2,389,165 1,189,389
5,369,903 6,317,988 169,133
5,663,895 6,326,897 139,592
62,750,843
90,042,282
46,700,538
34,045,758
23,331,981 1,477,253 1,334,340
16,983,812 1,047,348
1,541 661,527 53,030 8,678 6,285,789 6,485,501 2,224,757 14,782 276,316,119
483 58,884
4,686,695 4,901,949
1,443,665 3,572,428
1,023,716 3,896,086
4,292 209,988,002
189,662,407
195,147,279
2003 2,164,155 161,329 8,544 230 191,351 137 4,436,089 704,852
2002 1,931,260 152,054 5,897 12 103,375 4,714 3,851,736 585,517
2001 2,018,339 196,359 1,374 48
2000 2,111,807 309,576 5,366
1999 2,358,096 368,309 3,354
6,513 4,279,273 616,988
4,868 3,681,512 582,279
3,839,548 650,071
Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) FU TU R E W h ea t Mini Wheat Corn Mini Corn Oats Soybeans Mini Soybeans Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Rice Mini Silver Mini Gold T-Bonds (30-year) Mini T-Bonds (30-year) T-Notes (10-year) Mini T-Notes (10-year) T-Notes (5-year) T-Notes (2-year) Agency Debt (10-year) Agency Debt (5-year) Mini Eurodollars I nterest Rate Swap (10-year) I nterest Rate Swap (5-year) Municipal Note I ndex (10-year) 30-Day Federal Funds Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex Mini ($5) Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex Dow Jones AI GCI I ndex T otal
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Future Lean Hogs Pork Bellies, Frozen Butter Nonfat Dry Milk Class I I I Milk Class I V Milk Live Cattle Feeder Cattle
Contract Unit 40,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 44,000 lbs 200,000 lbs 200,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 44,000 lbs
41T
VOLUME U.S. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Future Random Lumber T-Bills (90-day) Eurodollar (3-month) Euroyen EuroYen LI BOR 2-Year SWAP 5-Year SWAP 10-Year SWAP 28-Day Mexican TI I E One Month LI BOR British Pound Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar CME $ I ndex Euro FX E-Mini Euro FX Japanese Yen E-Mini Japanese Yen Mexican Peso New Zealand Dollar Norwegian Krone Russian Ruble South African Rand Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Australian Dollar Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen British Pound / Japanese Yen British Pound / Swiss Franc Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen Euro / Australian Dollar Euro / Canadian Dollar Euro / British Pound Euro / Japanese Yen Euro / Swiss Franc Nikkei 225 S&P 500 I ndex E-Mini S&P S&P 500 Barra Growth I ndex S&P 500 Barra Value I ndex S&P Financial Sector I ndex S&P Technology-Telecomm Sector I ndex S&P MidCap 400 I ndex S&P SmallCap 600 I ndex E-mini S&P SmallCap 600 I ndex Fortune E-50 I ndex NASDAQ 100 I ndex E-Mini NASDAQ 100 I ndex E-Mini NASDAQ Composite I ndex Russell 2000 I ndex E-Mini Russell 2000 I ndex Russell 1000 I ndex TRAKRS Select 50 I ndex LMC TRAKRS I ndex TRAKRS Commodity TRAKRS Euro Currency TRAKRS Gold TRAKRS I ndex HDD Weather HDD Seasonal Weather CDD Weather Euro HDD Seasonal Weather Goldman Sachs Commodity I ndex T otal
42T
(Continued)
Contract Unit 80,000 bd ft 1,000,000 USD 1,000,000 USD 1,000,000,000 JPY 100,000,000 JPY
1,200,000 MXN 3,000,000 USD 62,500 100,000 100,000 1,000 USD x I ndex 125,000 62,500 12,500,000 6,250,000 500,000 100,000 227,000 500,000 193,600 125,000 100,000 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 125,000 GBP 125,000 GBP 250,000 CHF 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 125,000 EUR 5 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 50 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 125 USD x I ndex 125 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 200 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 20 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 100 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 1 USD x I ndex 100 x HDD 100 x HDD 100 x CDD 100 x EHDD 250 USD x I ndex
2003 223,891 3,974 208,771,164 179,573 1,650 6,640 43,616 40,030 3,506 1,138,358 2,595,155 277 4,219,618 457 11,193,922 16,860 6,085,209 2,740 2,123,623 120,235 388 4,420 73,542 4 3,596,658 1,609,289 220 94 894 103 102 247 554 247 65,696 161,600 1,794 765,463 20,175,462 161,176,639 5,119 14,131 4,093 60 302,817 1,635 1,417,513 32 4,421,221 67,888,938 6,444 655,778 3,878,935 14,941 2,436,069 1,803,316 7,424,763 1,196,525 6,065,013 994,756 6,058 225 8,176 375 371,473 530,989,007
2002 164,423 4,619 202,080,832 231,723 2,302 5,671 13,301 7,234
2001 206,840 31,113 184,015,496 494,519 17,474
2000 221,168 16,763 108,114,998 1,079,074 7,924
1999 287,856 41,260 93,418,498 945,419 3,869
110,934 2,166,469 4 3,134,963
1,315,593 2,078,834 3,937 2,961,680
896,269 2,029,542 2,067 2,460,134
843,054 2,738,600 59,104 2,573,762
6,986,600 7,252 4,394,982 2,557 1,354,256 54,148 303
5,898,429 13,244 4,552,599 2,023 1,069,327 21,766
4,267,408 29,942 3,965,377 6,166 1,117,304 32,862
3,002,453 1,775 5,935,843 1,072 1,143,641 42,646
55,275 1 2,830,738 1,049,220 16 16 519 263
65,327
40,701
51,762
2,901,939 832,707
3,241,207 749,555
4,114,824 861,023
127 98,970 182 476,274 22,478,152 39,434,843 12,408 24,319
973 4,289 2 455,298 22,467,859 19,211,355 16,733 31,121
3,332 2,018 398 513,848 27,003,387 10,953,551 11,015 26,698
378,526
332,438
326,117
3,694 5,586,750 32,550,233
19,838 5,094,042 10,817,277
2,360,938 682,059
714,259 26,012
508,726
363,041
131
67
336
54 306 5 7,166 58,768 949 571,241 23,699,667 115,741,691 7,756 17,238 5,052 1,410 387,800 191 343,087 392 4,903,287 54,491,180 843,479 859,885 4,614,721 2,697,494
2,469,467 2,334 1,831 518,323 443,537,987
20 479,646 315,971,885
1,002,673 195,106,470
926,933 168,013,693
VOLUME U.S. Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) FU TU R E W h ea t Value Line I ndex T otal
CONTRACT UNIT 5,000 bu 100 USD x I ndex
2003 2,632,033 2,391 2,634,424
2002 2,738,536 17,370 2,755,949
2001 2,357,004 17,773 2,375,133
2000 2,427,950 9,954 2,446,607
1999 2,321,059 1,264 2,375,271
CONTRACT UNIT 1,000 bu 1,000 bu 1,000 bu
2003 5,580 39,555 97,163 142,298
2002 74,454 107,388 299,694 483,156
2001 52,285 118,574 281,451 582,872
2000 77,477 270,890 572,672 1,649,549
1999 132,392 291,186 651,268 2,433,894
CONTRACT UNIT 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu
2003 1,066,489 16,535 3,996 1,087,020
2002 1,199,149
2001 967,666
2000 955,659
1999 1,119,812
2,253 1,201,543
968,699
958,420
1,134,945
MidAmerica Commodity Exchange (MidAm) FU TU R E W h ea t Corn Soybeans T otal
Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) FU TU R E W h ea t Hard Winter Wheat I ndex National Corn I ndex T otal
New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)* FU TU R E Coffee 'C' Mini Coffee Sugar #11 Sugar #14 Cocoa Cotton #2 Orange Juice Frozen Concentrate US Dollar / Canadian Dollar US Dollar / Swedish Krona US Dollar / Norwegian Krone US Dollar / Swiss Franc US Dollar / Japanese Yen US Dollar / British Pound US Dollar / Czech Koruna US Dollar / Hungarian Forint US Dollar / South African Rand Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Australian Dollar / US Dollar Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar Australian Dolar / New Zealand Dollar New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen British Pound / Swiss franc British Pound / Japanese Yen Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen Euro Euro / US Dollar, Small Euro / Australian Dollar Euro / Canadian Dollar Euro / Czech Koruna Euro / Hungarian Forint Euro / Japanese Yen Euro / Swedish Krona Euro / British Pound Euro / Norwegian Euro / Swiss Franc US Dollar I ndex NYSE Composite I ndex Revised NYSE Composite I ndex Russell 1000 I ndex Russell 1000 Growth I ndex Russell 1000 Value I ndex Russell 2000 I ndex Russell 3000 I ndex Reuters-CRB Futures I ndex T otal *
CONTRACT UNIT 37,500 lbs 12,500 lbs 112,000 lbs 112,000 lbs 10 metric tons 50,000 lbs 15,000 lbs 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 200,000 USD 125,000 GBP
100,000 USD 200,000 CAD 100,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 100,000 NZD 200,000 AUD 125,000 GBP 125,000 GBP 200,000 CHF
100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR
100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 1,000 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 50 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex
500 USD x I ndex
2003 3,211,031 332 7,140,724 133,811 2,128,206 3,035,992 652,715 2,458 12,377 11,350 26,119 43,351 40,467 527 1,120 31,272 16,440 6,061 15,104 16,357 26,395 41,468 20,503 52,145 22,193 60,926 5,365 30,466 49,890 2,774 24 346,751 49,977 117,989 29,815 133,218 563,032 34,021 7,143 677,626 836 415 10 96 23,156 18,822,048
2003 576,765 282,135 858,900
2002 2,718,508 784 6,173,756 141,017 2,079,980 2,327,960 577,757 2,581 2,983 1,178 11,159 58,583 31,956
2001 2,199,371
2000 2,134,961
1999 2,659,233
5,150,329 116,733 2,005,817 2,259,665 577,496 1,854 2,564 746 10,737 16,338 17,379
5,933,850 122,976 2,110,048 2,597,757 712,204 2,825 2,423 58 16,671 30,353 14,202
5,911,299 138,661 1,868,036 2,448,087 793,882 3,406
11,081 8,593 8,043 5,181 9,525 13,289 21,870 13,204 30,925 9,038 81,998 2,560 14,635 17,731
4,793 18,865 2,640 17,886 12,673 24,426 31,250 21,379 42,651 15,196 64,431 2,299 17,006 11,712
9,984 5,380 44,307 2,064 15,333 23,866 32,390 11,061 85,530 13,662 97,032 6,508 7,674 8,396
10,859
337,756 45,757 124,485 17,670 69,057 411,571 216,479
294,733 30,354 112,727 4,488 44,162 342,948 217,772
278,119 54,076 159,862 2,461 69,538 297,745 130,984
192,987 101,605 200,560 10,452 147,650 356,544 334,222
646,455
313,318
94,736
161,114
14,283 16,272,144
16,878 14,034,168
63,494 15,214,853
88,696 15,958,237
2002 72,897 17,194 90,091
2001
2000
1999
25,523 41,632 16,571
40,711 26,088 70,717 18,538 28,789 69,207 20,988 85,211 2,337
NASDAQ LIFFE Markets (NQLX) FU TU R E Single Stock Futures Exchange Traded Funds T otal
CONTRACT UNIT
43T
VOLUME U.S. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) COMEX Division FU TU R E Gold Silver High Grade Copper Aluminum T otal
CONTRACT UNIT 1 0 0 oz 5,000 oz 25,000 lbs 44,000 lbs
2003 12,235,689 4,111,190 3,089,270 107,490 19,543,639
2002 9,018,183 3,135,564 2,807,286 74,000 15,035,033
2001 6,785,340 2,569,198 2,856,641 43,089 12,258,659
2000 6,643,464 3,117,017 2,778,124 46,099 12,626,367
1999 9,575,788 4,157,500 2,852,962 27,978 16,645,688
CONTRACT UNIT 1 0 0 oz 5 0 oz 1,000 bbl 1,000 bbl 1,000 bbl 400 bbl 1,000 bbl 42,000 gal 10,000 MMBTU 4,000 MMBTU 1,500 tons
2003 95,613 268,305 11,581,670 11,172,050 45,436,931 277,411 30 14,710 19,037,118 115,502 1,586 142,859 2,356,600 33,785 88,826 52,996 10,245 30,221 3,963 3,649 3,526 4,872 8,235 95,595 81,074 134,632 2,260 32,580 13,418 65,843 35,901 211,397 110,812 241,769 172,313 103,343 178,591 13,132 2,750 2,355 150 7,026 375 92,246,019 111,789,658
2002 41,053 219,771 10,695,202 10,979,736 45,679,468 210,228 1,516 12,826 24,357,792 67,981 4,124
2001 25,925 205,969 9,264,472 9,223,510 37,530,568
2000 50,766 320,924 9,631,376 8,645,182 36,882,692
1999 75,394 567,268 9,200,703 8,701,216 37,860,064
49,565 10,566 16,468,355
26,075 17,875,013
37,544 19,165,096
NYMEX Division FU TU R E Palladium Platinum No. 2 Heating Oil, NY Unleaded Gasoline, NY Crude Oil E-Mini Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil Propane Natural Gas E-Mini Natural Gas Central Appalachian Coal (CAPP) PJM Monthly Henry Hub Swap WTI Crude Oil Calendar Swap NYI SO A NYI SO G NYI SO J PJM Daily PJM Weekly C oa l Columbia Gulf Onshore Basis TETCO ELA Basis ANR - Oklahoma Basis Dominion Trans - Appalachian Basis MichCon Basis WAHA Basis NGPL Louisiana Basis NGPL Mid-Continent NGPL TEX/OK Basis Northern Natural Gas Ventura Basis Northern Natural Gas Demarcation Basis Permian Basis PG&E Citygate Basis PG&E Malin Basis Sumas Basis TCO Basis Texas Eastern Zone M-3 Basis TETCO STX Basis Transco Zone 3 Basis Swap NY Harbor Heating Oil Calendar Swap Gasoline vs. Heating Oil Swap CI G Rockies NY Harbor Resid Fuel 1.0% Sulfur Swap T otal Total**
2,209
1,268 4,848 758
856 1,898 856
1,666 2,072 5,525 4,950 1,340 186 11,564 5,890 3,610 7,702
92,324,686 107,359,719
72,781,325 85,039,984
73,461,273 86,087,640
75,769,318 92,415,006
2003 1,488,573 127,424 3,197 1,619,194
2002 151,878 32,203
2001
2000
1999
1,042,968,664
851,310,387
629,212,715
491,451,073
477,919,308
PERCENT CHANGE 22.51% 35.30% 28.03% * I ncludes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange. ** I ncludes Commodity Exchange, I nc.
2.83%
-5.02%
ONECHICAGO FU TU R E Single Stock Futures Exchange Traded Funds Dow Jones MicroSector I ndex T otal
CONTRACT UNIT
184,081
Total US Futures Volume TOTAL FUTURES
44T
VOLUME U.S.
Options Traded on U.S. Securities Exchanges Volume Highlights 2003 in Comparison w ith 2002 2003 RANK EXCHANGE 1 Chicago Board of Options Exchange 2 I nternational Stock Exchange 3 American Stock Exchange 4 Philadelphia Stock Exchange 5 Pacific Stock Exchange TOTAL
2003 CONTRACTS 283,946,495 244,968,190 180,074,778 112,705,597 86,152,637 907,847,697
% 31.28% 26.98% 19.84% 12.41% 9.49% 100.00%
2002 CONTRACTS 267,616,496 152,399,279 186,039,445 88,955,247 85,426,649 780,437,116
% 34.29% 19.53% 23.84% 11.40% 10.95% 100.00%
2002 RANK 1 3 2 4 5
Options Traded on U.S. Futures Exchanges Volume Highlights 2003 in Comparison w ith 2002 2003 2003 2002 RANK EXCHANGE CONTRACTS % CONTRACTS 1 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 109,220,627 49.27% 113,909,833 2 Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) 80,521,459 36.32% 67,566,482 3 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) 25,435,781 11.47% 26,384,716 4 New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) 6,010,110 2.71% 4,656,335 5 Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) 465,381 0.21% 570,887 6 Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) 46,711 0.02% 61,226 7 MidAmerica Commodity Exchange (MidAm) 0 0.00% 97 TOTAL 221,700,069 100.00% 213,149,576 ** I ncludes Commodity Exchange, I nc. * I ncludes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange.
% 53.44% 31.70% 12.38% 2.18% 0.27% 0.03% 0.00% 100.00%
2002 RANK 2 1 3 4 5 6 7
Options Volume on U.S. Futures Exchange 1999-2003 Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) Option W h ea t Corn Oats Soybeans Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Rice T-Bonds T-Notes (10-year) T-Notes (5-year) T-Notes (2-year) I nterest Rate Swap (10-year) I nterest Rate Swap (5-year) 30-Day Federal Funds Flexible US T-Bonds Flexible T-Notes (10-year) Flexible T-Notes (5-year) Dow Jones I ndustrial I ndex T otal
Contract Unit 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 60,000 lbs 100 tons 200,000 lbs 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 200,000 USD 100,000 USD 100,000 USD 5,000,000 USD
10 USD x I ndex
2003 1,788,500 4,515,240 36,163 4,885,399 665,532 546,267 34,978 15,180,025 41,165,629 9,697,455 11,874 1,787 100 1,614,319 57,442 56,920 200 263,629 80,521,459
2002 1,773,559 5,397,748 90,780 4,227,445 659,302 404,351 35,272 15,324,548 31,741,521 7,533,556 32,468 8,453
2001 1,714,041 4,864,294 70,218 3,829,236 672,284 606,187 23,233 13,478,771 19,983,876 4,681,604 44,185
2000 1,563,557 5,135,111 52,760 3,890,510 490,666 657,709 32,955 17,267,458 10,629,021 3,733,542 3,824
1999 1,516,037 4,205,325 56,418 4,792,245 801,367 709,194 48,515 34,680,068 9,738,808 2,537,044 1,780
38,456 60,577 4,225 234,219 67,566,482
38,160 45,700 2,200 288,364 50,345,068
18,781 24,670 12,160 200,379 43,866,151
54,454 6,150 2,593 229,560 59,413,936
45T
VOLUME U.S. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Option Lean Hogs Pork Bellies, Frozen Butter Mini BFP Milk Class I I I Milk Class I V Milk Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Random Lumber Euroyen Eurodollar (3-month) One Month LI BOR British Pound Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen Mexican Peso Swiss Franc Australian Dollar CME $ I ndex Euro FX Nikkei 225 S&P 500 I ndex E-Mini S&P S&P MidCap 400 I ndex NASDAQ 100 I ndex Russell 2000 CDD Weather HDD Weather HDD Seasonal Weather CDD Seasonal Weather Goldman Sachs Commodity I ndex
Contract Unit 40,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 50,000 lbs 100,000 lbs 200,000 lbs 200,000 lbs 40,000 lbs 44,000 lbs 80,000 bd ft 100,000,000 JPY 1,000,000 USD 3,000,000 USD 62,500 100,000 12,500,000 500,000 125,000 100,000 1,000 USD x I ndex 125,000 EUR 5 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 50 USD x S&P I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 100 x CDD 100 x HDD 100 x HDDSW 100 x CDDSW 250 USD x I ndex
T otal
2003 129,227 7,991 800 1,269 79,901 41 664,291 179,347 18,139 53 100,823,779 4,191 156,569 206,862 489,123 5,050 53,766 42,495 1,000 1,187,819 8,564 4,986,456 112,864 780 50,439 4,048 230 501 3,390 150 1,492
2002 156,699 5,595 259 2,107 23,852 543 476,467 121,226 14,665 318 105,580,961 395 121,443 153,329 849,646 5,688 82,285 18,098
1,318
3,343
3,281
2,573
109,220,627
113,909,833
95,740,352
36,007,913
32,723,766
2003 1,328,081 1,690,190 497,188 2,157,441 195,541 29,532 578 3 3 1 10 2 253 776 209 13 60 1 112 3 31 3 25,320 18,912 358 1,578 61,264 734 1,913
2002 1,063,090 1,380,300 743,237 1,171,843 175,794 28,694 69 1 2
2001 799,506 1,305,470 436,295 1,025,578 170,756 15,365 932
2000 909,251 2,027,581 495,221 1,027,002 237,673 14,650 676
1999 1,369,021 2,275,704 364,450 706,589 351,763 11,654 7,137
936 685 16
1,232 1,492 0
2,228 5,200 291
867
0
2,431
1 89,791
78,053
93,912
112,052
1,449
9,905
48,245
69,990
974
891
3,306
8,868
6,010,110
4,656,335
3,857,721
4,922,626
5,519,619
929,518 4,197 5,235,388 46,355 2,573 71,991 4,602 32 281
2001 171,472 6,901 38 2,836
2000 161,931 29,712 385 263
1999 231,273 16,780 752 387
1,448 688,149 186,247 25,752 2,225 88,174,799 2,106 147,205 109,908 839,069 5,331 119,051 30,050
656 622,590 132,086 19,413 9,756 28,590,428 2,236 174,928 75,934 567,896 5,741 125,360 10,337
545,709 130,410 24,745 41,073 24,884,494 1,916 208,921 121,933 1,100,130 8,133 178,433 9,509
655,991 3,339 4,381,924 21,777 4,007 121,895 10,941
371,737 4,270 4,352,249 18,814 2,911 699,264 8,047
167,078 6,007 4,603,946 54,480 3,841 225,981 1,230
New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)** Option Coffee 'C' Sugar #11 Cocoa Cotton #2 Orange Juice Frozen Concentrate US Dollar I ndex Large Euro / US Dollar Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar Australian Dollar / US Dollar Euro / Swedish Krona Euro / British Pound Euro / Japanese Yen British Pound / Japanese Yen New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar US Dollar / Canadian Dollar US Dollar / South African Rand US Dollar / Japanese Yen US Dollar / Norwegian Krone US Dollar / British Pound US Dollar / Swedish Krona NYSE Composite I ndex Revised NYSE Composite I ndex Russell 1000 Growth I ndex Russell 1000 Value I ndex Russell 1000 I ndex Russell 2000 I ndex Reuters-CRB Futures I ndex T o t a l **
46T
Contract Unit 37,500 lbs 112,000 lbs 10 metric tons 50,000 lbs 15,000 lbs 500 USD x I ndex 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 200,000 AUD 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 100,000 EUR 125,000 GBP 200,000 NZD 200,000 USD 100,000 USD 12,500,000 JPY 200,000 USD 125,000 GBP 200,000 USD 500 USD x I ndex 50 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex 500 USD x I ndex
2 14 104 156 3 140 600 70
VOLUME U.S. Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) Option W h ea t
Contract Unit 5,000 bu
2003 465,381
2002 570,823
2001 24,311
2000 218,052
1999 143,974
465,381
570,887
24,356
218,062
146,105
2003 39,764 5,773 1,174
2002 61,086
2001 29,112
2000 41,441
1999 53,246
46,711
61,226
29,830
42,658
53,870
2003 4,310,318 560,018 47,326 2,679
2002 1,948,564 530,831 37,315
2001 1,975,019 483,386 50,826
2000 2,083,414 579,085 65,043
1999 2,815,831 725,885 160,857 642
4,920,341
2,516,710
2,509,231
2,727,542
3,703,215
2003 633 668,859 2,430 100 616,245 3,465 25 10,237,121 164,928 300 825 131 8,742,277 13,557 35,797 28,747
2002 456 602,170 747 275 721,932 1,087
2001 1,813 704,972
2000 7,065 1,385,968
1999 11,146 695,558
1,040,030
1,012,460
600,009
11,460,857 92,603 250 2,905
7,726,076
7,460,052
8,161,976
10,966,023 4,636 6,521 6,364
5,974,240
5,335,800
3,749,454
14,992 13,014
16,348 42,363
46,281 46,482
20,515,440 25,435,781
23,868,006 26,384,716
15,475,878 17,985,109
15,260,056 17,987,598
13,320,610 17,023,825
221,700,069
213,149,576
168,211,323
103,065,376
115,000,090
PERCENT CHANGE 4.01% 26.72% 63.21% * I ncludes the New York Futures Exchange, New York Cotton Exchange and Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange. ** I ncludes Commodity Exchange, I nc.
-10.38%
-9.79%
T otal
Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) Option American Spring Wheat Hard Winter Wheat I ndex National Corn I ndex
Contract Unit 5,000 bu 5,000 bu 5,000 bu
T otal
140
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)* COMEX Division Option Gold Silver High Grade Copper Aluminum
Contract Unit 1 0 0 oz 5,000 oz 25,000 lbs 44,000 lbs
T otal
NYMEX Division Option Platinum Heating Oil Heating Oil 1-month CSO Heating Oil 2-month CSO Unleaded Gasoline Unleaded Gasoline 1-month CSO Unleaded Gasoline 2-month CSO Crude Oil Crude Oil 1-month CSO Crude Oil 6-month CSO Crude Oil 12-month CSO Crude Oil APO Natural Gas Natural Gas 1-month CSO Gas-Crude Oil Spread Heating Oil-Crude Oil Spread T otal T otal *
Contract Unit 5 0 oz 42,000 gal
1,000 bbl
1,000 bbl
10,000 MMBTU 1,000 bbl 1,000 bbl
Total US Options Volume TOTAL OPTIONS
47T
Volume Worldwide Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), Australia S&P/ASX I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures S&P / ASX I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2003 67,769 267,630 335,399 630,900 15,988,740 16,619,640
2002
2001
2000
1999
2002 446,115 475 152,939 1,295 48,326 75 16,616 624 4,425 65,892 62,896 5,231,780
2001 475,034
2000 390,513
1999 317,722
92,365
149,795
123,442
93,904 15 4,588 83 484 42,971 67,527 5,151,572
52,552 306 8,084 2,257 1,520 95,494 53,963 7,000,335
33,764 5,115 10,432 13,424 25 155,947 5,551,918
46,241,111 964,419 3,645,863 27,953 99,900 1,392
37,626,151 6,656,112 2,216,247 33,753 67,468 33
22,235,992 8,224,534 2,440,318 80,140 17,163 42
586,143 18,571,494 981,454
1,375,846 16,524,996
5,059,141
2,126,164
8,986
602,431
370,747
13,696 16,132,798 182,673 116,199 125 95,912,579 213,130 102,904 34,689 2,720
2,605 18,636,578 10,845
983 20,208,454 0
646 11,420,923 110
170 94,175,252 156,447 58,316 12,818 1,130 1,204
80,073,865 119,512 34,114 8,137 1,041 1,533
52,797,466 283,221 35,634 42,918 4,856
2,539,353 15,910
1,129,060 89,013
661,218 58,100
0 22,461
578,467 947,759 152,174
273,888 1,211,601 139,057
116,976 1,328,215 75,685
257,870 694,483 50,741
1,098,543 5,703,209
570,739 3,696,233
458,631 3,455,810
807,153 3,133,632
2002 1,144,628
2001
2000
1999
Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F), Braz il Arabica Coffee Robusta Conillon Coffee Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Sugar Crystal Cotton Corn Soybean Futures Gold Forward Gold Spot Anhydrous Fuel Alcohol Bovespa Stock I ndex Futures I NrX-50 Bovespa Mini I ndex I GP-M I nterest Rate I nterest Rate Swap I nterest Rate x Exchange Rate Swap I nterest Rate x Reference Rate Swap I nterest Rate x Price I ndex Swap (formerly I nflation) I nterest Rate x I bovespa I ndex Swap Exchange Rate Swap Price I ndex I D x US Dollar Spread Futures FRA on I D x US Dollar Spread I D x US Dollar Spread Swap I D x US Dollar MI ni Swap with reset I D x I GP-M Spread Futures I D Forward with Reset Global 2040 C-Bond US Dollar Mini US Dollar US Dollar forward points Euro Total Futures Gold on Actuals Gold Exercise US $ Denominated Arabica Coffee US $ Denominated Arabica Coffee Exercise Live Cattle Live Cattle Exercise I nterest Rate I nterest Rate (I DI ) I nterest Rate (I DI ) Exercise I nterest Rate (volatility) I DI I ndex (volatility) Fexible Bovespa Stock I ndex US Dollar on Actuals US Dollar Exercise US Dollar Volatility Flexible Currency Total Options
2003 478,544 405 113,473 9,475 40,257 172 43,902 2,917 483 98,386 49,158 6,630,407 85 1,158,155 780 57,641,625 888,957 3,520,170 5,052 666,988 435 9,778 13,200 731,544 22,823,905 234,958 1,057,259 760 50 160 35,903 16,784,939 625,382 227,097 300 113,895,061 173,142 82,728 37,423 1,143 764 42 182,183 1,772,583 155,263 9,810 1,185 1,216,418 2,148,440 130,187 30,030 949,200 6,890,541
592,342 64,868 48,568,401 474,713 3,185,443 1,628 183,647 224 1
110,943
BOVESPA, Braz il I bovespa I ndex I brX-50 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
48T
2003 1,600,261 200 175,622,679 177,223,140
89,740,269 90,884,897
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Budapest Commodity Exchange (BCE), Hungary Corn F eed W h ea t Feed Barley W h ea t Black Seed Rapeseed Ammonium Nitrate US Dollar Japanese Yen EUR British Pound Czech Koruna Polish Zloty Swiss Franc EURCHF EURUSD EURJPY EURPLN GBPCHF GBPUSD USDCHF USDJPY USDPLN 3-Month BUBOR Total Futures Corn W h ea t US Dollar EUR EUR/USD Total Options
2003 12,513 711 354 6,883 1,031 24 3 1,153,307 197,763 1,602,075 62,270 3,370 3,565 188,786 111 937 373 433 27 68 86 139 719 1,540 3,237,088 888 242 21,650 414,095 15 436,890
2002 9,450 1,316 118 9,271 392
2001 15,733 2,403 433 14,987 1,101
2000 41,956 726 1,369 21,345 845
1999 48,918 48 2,518 65,823 7,351
2 389,001 179,650 698,888 4,410 8,720 1,330 32,780
17 425,125 226,639 1,840,127 15,426
67 486,860 232,844 1,306,688 42,380
470,550 101,884 596,258 17,103
63,010
38,901
72,500
3,400 1,338,846 305 150 24,250 260,850
7,585 2,612,788 511 164
2,174,480 697 19
1,588,047 1,665 3,464
285,555
11,675
859
5,649
2002 292,128
2001 1,236,405
2000 839,978
1999 1,555,939
74,800 3,761 75,150
41,722 3,084 7,064
22,536
33,527
7,064
120
1,600
1,000
1,000
150
125,689 3,100
116,176
74,790
25,106
879,049 2,286,300
456,510 1,402,378
181,031 1,814,078
2001
2000
1999
11,000
Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), Hungary Budapest Stock I ndex (BUX) Futures 3-Month BUBOR EUR/HUF JPY/HUF CHF/HUF CZK/HUF EUR/HUF GBP/HUF PLN/HUF USD/HUF GBP/USD GBP/CHF GBP/JPY GBP/SEK EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/NOK EUR/JPY EUR/PLN EUR/SEK EUR/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY USD/NOK USD/SEK CHF/JPY All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures
2003 400,003 150 178,460 67,390 326,090 3,770 514,451 1,000 1,800 36,586 72,350 33,000 4,800 23,300 43,575 25,100 23,900 8,200 24,200 2,039,000 249,750 16,440 146,525 5,000 300 200 694,553 4,939,893
200 452,638 1,072,566
2003 19,287 60,000,808 14,953,398 74,973,493
2002 31,313,335 12,689,935 4,404,134 48,407,404
41,800 1,700
Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), China Soybeans No 1 Soybeans Soybean Meal Total Futures
49T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE EUREX, Frankfurt, Germany (formerly DTB and SOFFEX) DAX HEX 25 NEMAX 50 TecDAX DJ Global Titans 50 DJ Euro STOXX 50 DJ Euro STOXX Automobiles DJ Euro STOXX Banks DJ Euro STOXX Basic R esources DJ Euro STOXX C hemicals DJ Euro STOXX Construction DJ Euro STOXX Cyclical Goods and Services DJ Euro STOXX Energy DJ Euro STOXX Financial Services DJ Euro STOXX Food and Beverage DJ Euro STOXX Healthcare DJ Euro STOXX I ndustry Goods and Services DJ Euro STOXX I nsurance DJ Euro STOXX Media DJ Euro STOXX Non-Cyclical Goods and Services DJ Euro STOXX Media DJ Euro STOXX Technology DJ Euro STOXX Telecom DJ Euro STOXX Utilities DJ STOXX 50 DJ STOXX 600 Banks DJ STOXX 600 Healthcare DJ STOXX 600 I nsurance DJ STOXX 600 Technology DJ STOXX 600 Telecom DJ STOXX 600 Utilities Swiss Market I ndex (SMI ) Exchange Traded Funds Swiss Government Bond (C ONF) Euro-BUND Euro-BOBL 3-Month Euribor Euro-BUXL Euro-SCHATZ Total Futures DAX HEX 25 NEMAX 50 TecDAX DJ Global Titans 50 DJ Euro STOXX 50 DJ Euro STOXX Automobile DJ Euro STOXX Banks DJ Euro STOXX C hemicals DJ Euro STOXX Energy DJ Euro STOXX Financial Services DJ Euro STOXX Healthcare DJ Euro STOXX I nsurnce DJ Euro STOXX Technology DJ Euro STOXX Telecom DJ STOXX 50 DJ STOXX 600 Healthcare DJ STOXX 600 Technology DJ STOXX 600 Telecom DJ STOXX 600 Utilities Swiss Market I ndex (SMI ) Euro-BUND Euro-SCHATZ Euro-BOBL All Options on I ndividual SMI C omponent Equities All Options on Nordic Equities All Options on Dutch Equities All Options on Exchange Traded Funds All Options on French Equities All Options on German Equities All Options on I talian Equities All Options on US Equities Total Options
50T
2003 27,181,218 32,589 750,125 181,954 2,017 116,035,326 152,714 483,451 10,185 54 481 40 105,614 995 8,538 3,281 230 323,207 8,339 444 42 281,967 192,907 16,927 970,107 8,595 41,394 170 8,331 20,537 9,651 8,969,235 187,996 284,809 244,414,274 150,087,139 503,951 666 117,370,528 668,650,028 41,521,920 7,128 48,969 13,477 48 61,794,673 50,673 413,834 2 63,427 307 19 269,736 86,830 110,664 55,417 11,270 4 2 1,633 3,983,918 27,316,536 11,723,090 10,498,534 46,302,221 13,265,471 6,862,703 70,350 1,487,428 120,211,761 80,041 30,198 346,282,284
2002 19,996,503 44,524 4,704,283
2001 14,686,359
2000 11,524,330
1999 12,876,982
5,409,482
702,873
965 86,354,731 83,677 560,757
871 37,828,500
14,315,518
5,341,864
355,801
326,136
113,478
77,762 110 9,037
2,399
151,250 698
303,315 279,535 1,304 690,719 25,376 100,674
452,830 11,259 11,968
13,306 20,403
5,152 6,900
7,019,626 56,126 275,392 191,263,413 114,678,996 527,815
5,099,537
4,586,219
6,515,036
416,883 178,011,304 99,578,068 663,980
479,350 151,326,295 62,502,582 1,224,877
577,030 121,311,878 45,481,843 3,031,138
108,760,955 536,013,920 44,027,830 14 634,195
92,637,630 435,141,707 44,102,502
42,822,290 289,952,183 31,941,562
17,748,784 244,754,731 32,613,783
1,726,251
473,297
40 39,477,430 35,303 898,989
104 19,046,893
8,197,999
3,791,738
61,530
80,254
3,179,143 22,054,064 10,075,031 6,188,962 35,239,133 16,165,675 835,418
3,474,369 26,291,123 1,954,183 2,436,491 35,648,521 4,536,186
3,669,386 24,940,113 450,836 1,787,840 28,570,528 111,332
276,825
9,905
38,196 239,052,063
164,119,313
64,012 146 2,456 114,021 382,141 314,976 39,594 45,040
4,230,082 18,125,981 8,954,263 4,529,387 34,496,338 20,601,113 2,708,256 6,069 246,562 85,111,674 16,675 123,966 265,186,953
82,321 47,967
20,434
96 19,031 9,677 44,400
134,392,178
VOLUME WORLDWIDE EURONEXT, Amsterdam (Formerly EOE, AFM and AEX, Netherlands) Live Hogs (AVC) Potatoes (APC) AEX Stock I ndex (FTI ) Light AEX Stock I ndex (FTI L) FTSE Eurotop 100 I ndex (FETI ) Euro/US Dollar (FED) US Dollar/Euro (FDE) All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures Euro / US Dollar (EDX) US Dollar / Euro EOE Stock I ndex Light AEX Stock I ndex (AEXL) FTSE Eurotop 100 I ndex (ETI ) All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2003 1,257 40,265 5,215,465 6,639 313 1,405 1,088 32,429 5,298,861 74,279 64,045 14,120,099 131,209 1,560 59,754,703 74,145,895
2002 4,959 39,285 4,231,053 12,401 1,073 568 1,077 37,042 4,328,952 21,692 40,677 9,133,875 86,403 5,919 64,076,106 73,368,051
2001 32,437 61,184 3,317,913 8,211 253 2,346 2,234 8,387 3,437,501 29,760 39,790 6,569,129 50,241 5,210 56,348,323 63,065,039
2000 32,020 63,184 2,674,824 20,700 2,112 989 3,656 773 2,801,241 30,835 63,560 4,953,037 37,782 9,940 50,345,697 55,488,681
1999 43,051 67,663 2,925,385 12,445 292 167 1,241 3,053,182 17,398 87,249 5,527,137 38,872 11,017 40,653,520 46,500,810
2003 42,323,094 5,009,460 58,341 137,692,190 10,150,267 2,543 580,516 1,022,358 1,031,016 1,120 17,660 28,595 44,613 20,252,114 109,846 344,100 210,171 107,207 563,944 5,422 1,058 2,328,609 2,320,831 91,387 1,062,494 6,349,198 231,708,154 14,162,149 967,384 65,925 57,733,239 4,907,879 15,904 2,452 7,888 14,619,893 55,215 1,841 1,166 1,066,997 188,822 143,148 3,262 66,561 10,108,068 104,117,793
2002 34,307,727 4,976,206
2001 34,945,053 4,694,391
2000 22,606,948 4,621,559
1999 27,272,559 5,956,797
105,756,584 7,789,011 228,125 977,127 1,437,955 1,613,672 8,191 13,399 50,102 37,723 17,238,726 129,414
91,083,198 6,710,557
58,016,852 5,350,705
35,657,690 8,421,533
72,182 12,698,908 130,824
379,541 10,142,828 153,792
465,727 8,704,574 139,552
114,576 552,460 804 2,708 1,802,142 1,905,319 80,784 1,044,806 3,935,121 184,026,644 7,364,057 346,001 81,467 33,481,758 1,419,271 8,816 5,992 2,730 13,263,116 110,800
124,202 373,259 559 5,614 1,514,384 1,547,838 95,676 898,261 2,325,744 161,522,775 7,692,455 427,975 82,145 21,643,698 963,417 450 1,730 2,429 11,848,155 320,461
77,140 166,135 8,706 3,567 1,636,322 1,470,980 87,387 907,399
41,746 22,172 47,663 6,526 1,862,119 1,565,708 100,127 990,595
105,712,717 4,167,648 127,080 68,922 7,900,121 432,445
97,689,714 6,451,680 112,735 89,777 4,819,366 3,200
6,285,819 531,389
4,858,373 843,100
595,486 194,682 139,394 8,092 43,900 12,889,422 69,954,984
229,152 94,505 80,197 12,693 70,526 10,725,183 54,225,252
71,898 7,119 119,200 15,610 121,671 5,484,873 25,342,092
58,878 22,758 186,155 41,436 105,932 3,601,383 22,350,317
EURONEXT, United Kingdom (LCE merged w ith LIFFE in 1996) 3-Month Short Sterling 3-Month Euroswiss 1-Month Eonia 3-Month Euribor Long Gilt Schatz 2-Year Swapnote EUR 5-Year Swapnote EUR 10-Year Swapnote EUR 2-Year Swapnote USD 5-Year Swapnote USD 10-Year Swapnote USD Japanese Government Bond FTSE 100 I ndex FTSE Eurotop 100 I ndex FTSE Eurotop 300 I ndex FTSEurofirst 80 I ndex MSCI Euro I ndex MSCI Pan-Euro I ndex FTSE Mid 250 I ndex Barley Cocoa #7 Robusta Coffee W h ea t White Sugar All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures 3-Month Short Sterling 3-Month Sterling Mid-curve 3-Month Euroswiss 3-Month Euribor 3-Month Euribor Mid Curve 2-Year Swapnote 5-Year Swapnote 10-Year Swapnote FTSE 100 I ndex (ESX) FTSE 100 I ndex (SEI ) FTSEurofirst 80 I ndex FTSEurofirst 100 I ndex FTSE 100 I ndex FLEX Cocoa US Dollar Coffee W h ea t White Sugar All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
686,450 1,502,104 1,967,221
51T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE EURONEXT, Brussels (Formerly BELFOX) Bel 20 I ndex Total Futures Bel 20 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2003 328,673 328,673 320,540 319,850 640,390
2002 507,229 2,653,399 747,161 450,734 1,197,895
2001 543,501 3,438,621 727,853 404,559 1,132,412
2000 780,301 30,299,351 911,275 589,218 1,503,453
1999 823,244 5,711,482 1,151,862 530,389 1,700,728
2003 214,415 560,224 774,639 74,664 74,664
2002 346,134 2,928,883 3,275,017 5,228 6,755
2001
2000
1999
2003 51 114,758 90,973 174,538 29,319,624 11,866 6 29,711,816 7,003 7,643 73,668,131 174,487,319 248,170,096
2002 5,910 107,602 98,654 165,462 26,411,321 187,623 1,896 26,991,450 9,834 1,679 84,342,670 246,165,884 330,520,413
2001 2,965 57,159 57,664 135,655 22,923,597 887,447 2,330 42,042,673 7,554
2000 195,169 33,038 27,677 115,840 18,249,903 999,596 23,603 62,968,563 5,313
1999 2,968,774 43,193 7,158 137,244 20,973,911 437,447 103,160 35,630,883 3,332
107,251,388 178,330,328 285,592,240
84,036,775 89,434,383 173,531,463
75,652,724 68,095,743 152,453,289
2003 1,648,009 79 1,648,088 320,255 320,255
2002 2,157,347 282 2,157,629 486,581 486,729
2001 988,503 41 988,544 152,052 155,092
2000 853,872
1999 820,574
874,862 324,526 332,154
1,101,616 1,263,363 1,533,496
2001 434,163 434,163 7,722 94,911 102,633
2000 459,007 459,007 5,529 26,041 31,570
1999 995,934 1,029,369 10,277 3,838 16,503
1998 1,093,917 1,135,288 18,128 2,656 27,920
2002 21,493,486 8,156,358 450 4,155 90 180 578,925 30,233,664 146,809 61,001 207,810
2001 18,396,069 7,230,408 1,005 3,900 2,570 1,540 462,665 26,098,207 252,217 60,240 312,457
2000 17,297,974 7,115,435 50 1,465 2,555 5,440 515,305 24,938,224 452,284 100,631 552,915
1999 15,982,355 6,150,912
EURONEXT, Lisbon PSI -20 I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
EURONEXT, Paris (Formerly MATIF and MONEP, France) 3-Month Euribor W h ea t # 2 Corn Rapeseed CAC 40 Stock I ndex 10 Euro DJ Euro STOXX(SM) 50 DJ STOXX 50 Total Futures Rapeseed W h ea t CAC 40 I ndex (Long Term) All Options on I ndividual Equities* Total Options
Helsinki Exchanges (HEX), Finland (formerly the Finnish Options Market Exchange) STOX Stock Future HEXTech I ndex Total Futures All Options on I ndividual Equities (STOX) Total Options
Copenhagen Stock Exchange / The FUTOP Market, Denmark KFX Stock I ndex Total Futures KFX Stock I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2002 610,908 610,908 8,440 142,702 151,142
International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), United Kingdom Crude Oil Gasoil Natural Gas - Seasons Natural Gas - Quarters Natural Gas BOM Natural Gas Daily (NBP) Natural Gas Monthly (NBP) Total Futures Crude Oil Gasoil Total Options
52T
2003 24,012,969 8,429,981 600 1,590 1,455 74,180 737,610 33,258,385 49,520 33,339 82,859
4,270 12,000 290,750 22,442,222 495,798 104,813 600,611
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Italian Derivatives Market of the Italian Stock Exchange, Italy MI B 30 I ndex Mini FI B 30 I ndex MI DEX All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures MI B 30 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2003 4,263,886 2,570,238 358 468,083 7,302,565 2,505,351 7,924,078 10,429,429
2002 4,877,464 2,132,937 774 59,853 7,071,028 2,588,402 7,587,199 10,175,601
2001 4,634,329 1,400,135 743
2000 4,260,085 358,439 2,044
1999 5,094,312
6,035,207 2,716,271 8,329,533 11,045,804
4,620,568 2,843,986 5,875,138 8,719,124
5,099,456 2,236,241 1,947,931 4,184,172
2003 10,290,042 171,538 207,209 652,712 56,998 15,606,123 26,984,622 1,229 3 1,232
2002 12,777,991
2001 9,323,430
2000 1,538,507
1999 295,833
466,479 608 1,676,979 11,468,906
62,936 1,355,730 2,959,974
40,509 259,249 945,403
85 85
16,705
61,398
2003 62,204,783 62,204,783 2,837,724,953 8,159 2,837,733,112
2002 42,868,164 42,868,164 1,889,823,786 57,918 1,889,881,704
2001 31,502,184 31,502,184 823,289,608
2000 19,666,518 19,666,518 193,829,070
1999 17,200,349 17,200,349 79,936,658
823,289,608
193,829,070
79,936,658
2003 26,953,102 703,356 833,022 19,437,740 4,504,246 4,220,434 10,470,171 1,448,083 68,570,154 1,618,895 541 50 1,239,523 95,967 144,489 386,652 8,070 137,598 90,381 1,551 4,950 768 8,738 3,738,173
2002 22,330,491 895,726 173,127 16,579,090 3,411,156 3,187,275 8,100,114 1,625,470 56,303,779 877,429 379 22 888,068 50,413 67,781 300,347 14,671 74,943 32,939 1,697 6,642
2001 23,767,595 819,206
2000 25,443,980 643,659
1999 22,211,729 740,955
17,797,929 3,096,929 3,194,758 6,113,484 1,432,814 56,224,495 1,547,829 5,787
17,565,260 3,222,766 5,126,919 7,549,121 1,846,413 61,413,076 2,437,147 3,101
16,789,674 3,310,109 5,396,342 7,341,620 1,770,807 57,563,009 1,502,276 1,037
1,053,373 86,098 133,039 188,147 27,150 80,244 39,472 1,512 10,937
1,172,551 76,256 415,373 555,127 71,845 251,846 46,498 329
1,156,929 114,498 250,823 520,942 147,615 299,167 41,261
14,884 2,330,225
14,807 3,188,755
1,948 5,032,171
4,034,548
2003 1,434,713 126,289 781 116,221 11 331,445 2,009,460
2002 911,015 61,369
2001 479,799 54,914
2000 308,622 44,812
1999 388,105 28,670
287,528 822,241
366,942 720,376
436,678 853,453
5,144
Korea Futures Exchange (KFE), Korea Korea Treasury Bonds 5-Year Treasury Bond Monetary Stabilization Bond KOSDAQ 50 I ndex Gold US Dollar Total Futures Korea Treasury Bond KOSDAQ 50 I ndex Total Options
1,688 380,491 1,434,591 14,596,861 24,790 44 26,434
Korea Stock Exchange (KSE), Korea KOPSI 200 Total Futures KOPSI 200 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
London Metal Exchange (LME), United Kingdom High Grade Primary Aluminum Aluminum Alloy North American Special Aluminum Alloy Copper - Grade A Standard Lead Primary Nickel Special High Grade Zinc Tin Total Futures High Grade Primary Aluminum Aluminum Alloy North American Special Aluminum Alloy Copper - Grade A Standard Lead Primary Nickel Special High Grade Zinc Tin Primary Aluminum TAPOS Copper Grade A TAPOS Lead TAPOS Nickel TAPOS NASAA TAPOS Special High Grade Zinc TAPOS Total Options
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, Malaysia (formerly the KLCE and KLOFFE) Crude Palm Oil 3-Month KLI BOR 3-Year Malaysian Gov't Securities (FMG3) 5-Year Malaysian Gov't Securities (FMG5) 10-Year Malaysian Gov't Securities (FMG10) KLSE Composite I ndex (FKLI ) Total Futures
72,959 231,444 1,276,787
53T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE MEFF Renta Fija (RF), Spain 10-Year Notional Bond Total Futures
2003 1,382 1,382
2002 46,771 46,771
2001 290,608 290,608
2000 1,094,548 1,094,922
1999 3,614,750 3,639,648
2003 3,545,942 1,070,853 12,492,568 17,109,363 2,981,593 11,378,992 14,360,585
2002 3,896,643 724,424 12,645,186 17,267,294 2,693,086 18,701,248 24,068,192
2001 4,305,035 22,423 8,766,165 13,108,293 557,306 22,628,132 23,628,446
2000 4,183,028
1999 5,101,588
4,183,028 766,078 16,580,519 17,346,597
5,101,588 861,255 8,091,728 8,952,983
2002 1,913 14 11,811 555 385,139
2001 11,632 222 145,655 1,107
2000
1999
399,432 2 4,636 443 3,957 9,038
159,935 7,596 55,304 998
2002 81,395 220,731 11,398,544 162,077,312 4,683 38,279 173,820,944
2002 52,108 49,243 3,568,951 80,595,463 9,214
2001
2000
1999
2003 6,578,451 6,055 3,754 2,397,119 1,681,994 1,454 110 6,890 452 10,676,279 341,245 744 38,221 130,508 18,199 101,914 9,721 10,917 6,355,251 7,006,720
2002 4,789,319 6,817
2001 4,234,236
2000 4,992,957
1999 6,047,542
1,803,420 1,450,860 739 187 7,071 85 8,058,498 57,950 3,774 47,749 237,325
1,835,229 1,174,328
1,501,264 1,272,244
1,598,463 262,058
7,260,999 89,339 20,369 35,585 127,731
7,766,687 249,976 8,877 88,923 120,556
7,931,831 168,903 9,190 40,650
6,086,675 6,433,473
5,099,894 5,372,930
4,753,495 5,221,827
1,439,476 1,660,886
2003 10,781 10,557,024 25,573,756 36,141,561 1,332,417 5,607,990 6,940,407
2002
2001
2000
1999
1,641,779 8,557,332 10,199,111 314,478 2,773,524 3,088,002
750,956 435,701 1,186,657 7,596 55,304 62,900
3,156,181
2,439,089
MEFF Renta Variable (RV), Spain I BEX 35 Plus I ndex Mini I BEX 35 I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures I BEX 35 Plus I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
Mercado a Termino de Rosario (ROFEX), Argentina W h ea t Corn Rosafe Soybean I ndex (I SR) Rosafe Corn I ndex (I MR) US Dollar (DLR) Euro (EC) Total Futures W h ea t Rosafe Soybean I ndex (I SR) Rosafe Corn I ndex (I MR) US Dollar (DLR) Total Options
2003 859 4 11,912 615 2,694,348 575 2,708,313 128 1,134 50 132,871 134,183
63,898
Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER), Mexico US Dollar I PC Stock I ndex C E T E 91 T I I E 28 M3 Bond M10 Bond Total Futures
84,274,979
Montreal Exchange (ME), Canada 3 Month Bankers Acceptance (BAX) 30-Day Overnight Repo Rate (ONX) Canadian Government Bonds (OBA) 10 Year Canadian Gov't Bond (CGB) S&P Canada 60 I ndex (SXF) Gold I ndex (SXA) Banking I ndex (SXB) I nformation Technology I ndex (SXH) Energy I ndex (SXY) Total Futures 3-Month Bankers Acceptance (OBX) 10-Year Canadian Gov't Bond (OBK,OBV,OBZ) S&P Canada 60 I ndex (SXF) i60 I ndex (XI U) Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold I ndex Fund Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Financials I ndex Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped I T I ndex Fund Barclays iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy I ndex Fund All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
National Stock Exchange of India I nterest Rate S&P CNX Nifty I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures S&P CNX Nifty I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
54T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE New Zealand Futures Exchange (NZFOE), New Zealand 3-Year Government Stock 10-Year Government Stock 90-Day Bank Bill NZSE-10 Captial Share Price I ndex Total Futures 90-Day Bank Bill Total Options
2003 1,101 735 484,263 21 486,120 7,130 7,130
2002 5,279 2,000 607,453 99 614,831 8,909 12,187
2001 62,521 32,319 915,225 637 1,010,852 18,320 34,932
2000 3,867 8,024 781,074 1,087 794,502 22,906 88,296
1999 2,356 2,853 816,931 1,842 825,546 11,600 36,221
2003 6,674,408 14,567,900 1,424,890 22,667,198 6,371,381 43,098,768 49,470,149
2002 5,586,173 13,331,795 1,290,181 20,208,149 4,916,726 35,795,942 40,712,668
2001 7,033,675 14,906,505 1,468,018 23,408,198 4,587,544 34,729,075 39,327,619
2000 5,371,720 11,477,162 2,144,767 18,993,709 4,167,448 30,691,587 34,874,575
1999 8,002,707 11,931,352 1,129,453 21,063,746 5,733,106 26,824,117 32,558,877
2003 436,943 764,376 1,201,319 543,090 2,079,405 2,622,495
2002 191,374 689,904 881,278 700,313 1,594,138 2,294,451
2001 302,497 521,314 837,341 662,394 2,346,339 3,008,733
2000 260,521 750,264 1,024,266 1,025,027 2,062,350 3,087,377
1999 170,950 675,240 875,530 978,014 2,580,178 3,558,192
2003 11,166,288 2,155,498 26,757,964 40,079,750
2002 5,796,300 2,355,796 4,020,987 12,173,083
2001 4,088,943 1,448,192 73,200 5,610,335
2000 2,674,016 455,206 1,000,299 4,129,521
1999 2,559,687 256,485 318,096 3,134,268
2003 18,802,104 58,353 7,098,920 6,601 1,046,326 5,455,812 2,590 2,015,211 110,529 14,598 92 745,091 549 35,356,776 13 2,074 40,274 249,087 291,448
2002 19,504,044 128,034 4,857,565 7,329 711,687 4,628,247 1,282 1,812,175 255,256 68,327 360 630,761 13,690 32,623,190 14,855 247 47,897 201,206 264,205
2001 17,684,054 111,210 4,573,348 20,023 488,489 3,902,738
2000 10,083,633 61,300 4,484,978 47,106 479,486 3,390,153
1999 8,999,879 18,725 5,429,843
2,711,826 452,559 79,246
7,149,469 326,849
6,777,548 374,198
545,189 6,575 30,606,546 47,127 228 42,899 291,052 383,316
718,353
168,829
26,804,964 57,095 299 1,107 708,498 766,999
24,480,004 234,630 1,962 8,828 1,137,716 1,383,136
2003 6,514,691 1,316,712 990,752 1,126,895 4,068 9,953,118 21,720,083 201,733 21,921,816
2002 4,132,040 1,044,058 834,920 366,790
2001 2,844,707 413,343 635,661 452,541
2000 1,339,908
1999 971,578
409,706 177,175
87,156 18,938
6,377,808 15,664,464
4,346,252 5,137
1,926,789
1,077,672
15,664,464
5,137
OM Stockholm (OMS), Sw eden I nterest Rate OMX I ndex All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures OMX I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE), Norw ay Forwards OBX Total Futures OBX All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
Shanghai Metal Exchange, China Copper Aluminum R u b b er Total Futures
Singapore Exchange (SGX), Singapore Eurodollar Singapore Dollar I nterest Rate Nikkei 225 I ndex Straits Times I ndex MSCI Singapore I ndex MSCI Taiwan I ndex Middle East Crude Oil Euroyen TI BOR Euroyen LI BOR 5-Year Singapore Gov't Bond 10-Year Japanese Gov't Bond Mini Japanese Gov't Bond All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures Euroyen TI BOR Japanese Government Bond MSCI Taiwan I ndex Nikkei 225 I ndex Total Options
291,527 2,362,385
Taiw an Futures Exchange, Taiw an TAI EX Mini TAI EX Taiwan Stock Exchange Electronic Sector I ndex Taiwan Stock Exchange Bank & I nsurance Sector I ndex Taiwan 50 I ndex Total Futures TAI EX All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
55T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), Africa White Maize (WMAZ) Yellow Maize (YMAZ) WEAT SUNS SOYA All Share I ndex I ndustrial I ndex Gold Mining I ndex (GLDX) Financial I ndex (FI NI ) Government Bond I ndex (GOVI ) JB A R RESI Kruger Rand (KGRD) R 150 R 153 R 157 R 194 All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures White Maize (WMAZ) Yellow Maize (YMAZ) WEAT SUNS SOYA All Share I ndex I ndustrial I ndex Financial I ndex (FI NI ) R 150 R 153 R 157 R 194 All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2003 1,160,919 249,691 186,942 61,055 536 8,521,365 79,270 1,072 41,198 344 2 12,053 36,323 1,794 5,844 1,340 1,856 4,585,919 14,947,523 535,408 82,062 22,306 7,224 80 10,501,861 4,108 2,132 590 16,785 2,430 1,980 6,877,254 18,054,220
2002 918,764 290,921 86,057 60,271 464 6,975,380 480,497 6,505 146,945 668
2001 563,510 77,933 23,992 25,249
2000 245,396 57,666 9,279 5,751
1999
8,044,557 2,304,176
5,817,231 3,303,760
10,585
25,788
6,037,573 2,838,168 1,260 80,497
35,249
2,933
460
14,120
1,640 4,065 846
2,055 1,788
1,600 1,063
1,723 1,026
2,224,684 11,233,002 443,624 120,599 41,192 7,207 170 10,916,338 44,100 32,180 1,500 19,119 3,567 1,800 8,102,185 19,733,581
811,156 11,868,242 269,887 27,785 8,694 5,775
29,991 9,505,060 116,714 12,117 3,429 1,904
82,901 9,064,389
17,926,295 337,289 15,804 780 9,449
12,137,585 898,320 12,894 0 3,099
8,511,293 973,633 123,585 955 2,720
5,705,719 24,307,477
1,992,579 15,178,641
82,576 9,701,962
2002 3,761,904 29,076
2001 3,881,745 40,654
2000 3,824,860
1999 3,819,800
8,486,560 16,459,043 300 5,200,290 1,300 160 100 80
9,108,108 15,718,248
7,700,381 12,359,076
7,184,423 10,787,444
5,296,233
4,981,880
5,345,640
2,385 944 8,621
3,063 417 11,126
4,106 699 16,108
12,545 34,075,508 516,432 267,808 301,782 618,011
8,817 28,901,368 1,098,919 326,638 319,383 477,192
8,658 27,183,166 1,237,294 453,048 289,196 217,959
36,341
104,948
242,732
29,671
47,373
169,347
20 1,770,371
3 2,375,579
30 2,610,167
Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), Australia SPI 200 & SPI Australian Dollar 30-Day I nterbank Cash Rate 90-Day Bank Bills 3-Year Treasury Bonds 3-Year I nterest Rate Swaps 10-Year Treasury Bonds 10-Year I nterest Rate Swaps d-cypha NSW Base Load Electricity d-cypha VI C Base Load Electricity d-cypha QLD Base Load Electricity d-cypha SA Base Load Electricity d-cypha NSW Peak Period Electricity d-cypha VI C Peak Period Electricity d-cypha QLD Peak Period Electricity d-cypha SA Peak Period Electricity Fine Wool Broad Wool Greasy Wool MLA/SFE Cattle All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures SPI 200 & SPI 90-Day Bank Bills 3-Year Treasury Bond Overnight 3-Year Treasury Bond 3-Year Bonds I ntra-Day 10-Year Treasury Bonds 10-Year Bonds I ntra-Day Overnight 10-Year Treasury Bond d-cypha SA Peak Period Electricity d-cypha VI C Peak Period Electricity Greasy Wool Total Options
56T
2003 4,288,848 25,566 53,141 11,435,471 19,246,934 401 6,705,904 200 2,730 2,766 1,335 1,420 1,927 1,762 660 235 2,467 2,003 9,095 1,175 47,822 41,831,862 585,620 250,876 220,382 1,151,097 583,719 38,972 6,307 86,313 10 5 177 2,923,478
310 160 230 45 1,755 2,756 14,180 175 29,286 33,987,967 414,598 227,208 237,509 1,048,753 277,905 24,037 1,880 22,629
1,038 2,255,557
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), Israel TA-25 I ndex Shekel-Dollar Rate Total Futures TA-25 I ndex TA-Banks I ndex Shekel-Dollar Rate Shekel-Euro Rate Total Options
2003 10,210 85 10,295 29,352,985 610 8,343,368 391,221 38,088,184
2002 32,214 67 32,281 29,425,456 3,453 11,542,803 415,712 41,387,424
2001 53,198
2000
1999
53,198 26,871,775 35,940 6,049,954 23,940 32,981,609
2002 99,397 68,542 167,939 68,903 1,090,225 1,159,145
2001 271,741 164,278 436,019 123,757 1,239,969 1,365,633
2000 431,048 227,829 658,877 205,286 0 218,099
1999 598,981 203,421 802,582 395,323 802,924 1,230,375
2002 89,136 25,586 1,828,122 212,019 2,155,796 101 97 1,819 35,470 37,487
2001 166,932 72,476 2,424,973 237,574 2,903,826 243 2,300 5,728 125,236 133,507
2000 164,981 101,216 1,858,773 266,077 2,391,565 210 6,437 6,656 63,641 76,944
1999 106,378 78,433 1,685,756 211,377 2,086,909 115 3,295 1,648 61,476 66,534
2003 6,800,360 1,248,295 47,941 190 9,091 310 47,799 2,012 18,654 8,174,652 2,118,792 32,131 4,220,638 6,371,561
2002 4,802,422 1,107,964
2001 4,400,071 769,886
2000 4,023,138 120,165
1999 5,132,332
1,869 6,773 970 280,257 3,673 21,056 6,228,037 1,070,431 6,176 3,724,760 4,801,367
3,141
2003 40,675 28,938 499,526 1,421 1,881,771 44,376 242,676 2,739,383
2002 42,650 30,108 824,629 1,432 1,331,933 754,626 185,608 3,170,986
Wiener Borse - Derivatives Market of Vienna, Austria (formerly the AFOE) ATX I ndex CeCe (5 Eastern European I ndices) Total Futures ATX I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
2003 49,441 63,439 112,880 27,608 1,252,041 1,279,649
Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE), Canada W h ea t Flaxseed Canola (Rapeseed) Western Barley Total Futures W h ea t Flaxseed Western Barley Canola Total Options
2003 59,194 4,438 1,547,283 200,701 1,811,616 4 10 2,778 28,368 31,160
Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE), Hong Kong Hang Seng I ndex Mini Hang Seng I ndex H-Shares I ndex MSCI China Free I ndex Dow Jones I ndustrial Average 1-Month HI BOR 3-Month HI BOR 3-Year Exchange Fund Note All Futures on I ndividual Equities Total Futures Hang Seng I ndex Mini Hang Seng I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
14,315 629,491 1,175 7,756 5,830,672 716,114
12,075 325,155
9,726 308,646
3,322 4,521,926 544,047
5,696 5,563,358 714,309
4,002,655 4,718,880
4,188,702 4,738,644
2,197,972 2,966,014
2001 54,845 122,429 1,478,070 1,437 2,016,968 2,693,858
2000 37,689 307,676 1,284,179 1,443 2,357,240 2,443,593
1999 92,622 498,795 1,421 2,897,402 1,203,656
6,367,607
6,431,820
4,693,896
2002 4,470,763
2001 7,624,711 2,904
2000 17,077,791 8,255
1999 14,572,255 57,479
4,470,763
7,628,909
17,089,946
14,658,415
Fukuoka Futures Exchange (FFE), Japan (Formerly KCE) R ed B ea n s I mported Soybeans Non-GMO Soybeans Refined Sugar Corn Broiler Soybean Meal Total Futures
Tokyo International Financial Futures Exchange (TIFFE), Japan 3-Month Euroyen TI BOR 3-Month Euroyen LI BOR 5-Year Yen Swapnote 10-Year Yen Swapnote Total Futures
2003 4,155,800 3,000 205,092 408,025 4,771,917
57T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Kansai Agricultural Commodities Exchange (KANEX), Japan (Formerly OGE, OSE and KGE) R ed B ea n s I mported Soybeans Non-GMO Soybeans Refined Sugar Raw Sugar Raw Silk (formerly at Kobe Raw Silk Exchange) Frozen Shrimp Corn 75 I ndex Coffee I ndex Total Futures Raw Sugar Total Options
2003 12,080 41,126 622,337 2,842 18,956 8,009 1,144,264 317,561 1,274,190 3,441,365 2,931 2,931
2002 45,786 161,244 767,206 2,864 42,736 69,609 1,937,842 499,912 961,715 4,488,914 3,040 3,040
2001 30,069 465,057 971,980 2,874 94,961 269,199
2000 47,563 872,373 856,623 2,886 231,550 188,091
1999 177,039 1,245,358
263,520 371,272 2,901,551 6,097 6,097
2,447,652 12,388 12,388
2,442,440 30,363 30,363
2003 30,100 409 418,476 399,167 16,705,638 13,984,740 31,538,530
2002 71,057 20,273 18,419 338,291 15,212,512 14,338,356 30,011,863
2001 29,614 60,759 22,471 596,415 14,392,478 12,346,595 27,846,712
2000 45,297 372,475 65,642 590,274 11,048,071 8,714,440 21,328,867
1999 147,511 348,567
1,327,024
2003 13,058,425 172,862 13,231,287 14,958,100 234 45,412 15,003,746
2002 10,841,300 293,438 11,134,754 9,428,235 568 21,415 9,450,218
2001 9,516,875 961,566 10,478,441 6,953,222 609 38,077 6,991,908
2000 7,426,478 1,281,029 8,707,853 5,715,856 674 103,556 5,820,086
1999 9,067,883 1,470,954 10,540,224 5,753,760 652 683,778 6,438,191
2003 11,681 7,687 1,550,423 1,985,225 1,423,491 963,464 220,618 6,162,589
2002 34,055 45,650 1,300,492 587,641 1,885,262 1,285,419 69,133 5,207,652
2001 113,074 90,591 710,872 66,268 967,915 1,438,450
2000 183,568 83,508 1,404,451 213,758 1,561,707 1,695,737
1999 189,240 34,378 1,546,297
3,387,170
5,142,913
5,352,572
2003 26,637,897 1,160,565 14,211,824 275,322 329,565 25,677,079 13,208,350 1,809,711 372,977 3,568,929 87,252,219
2002 20,506,652 930,886 14,436,155 87,883 513,892 20,866,237 10,482,433 2,037,215
2001 9,791,711 660,864 16,244,583 117,098 735,366 16,441,056 8,301,559 911,597
2000 7,841,692 558,770 13,577,201 1,007,307 543,015 14,370,266 6,741,173
1999 16,011,962 966,838 13,277,043 5,832,649 710,782 3,973,668 1,441,163
5,551,837 75,413,190
3,334,411 56,538,245
6,195,440 50,851,882
6,193,292 48,442,161
2003 6,465,073 9,359,047 724 140,331 15,965,175 98,137 972,518 1,070,655
2002 6,356,612 7,131,178 466 141,751 13,630,046 93,249 1,036,395 1,129,644
2001 7,377,641 5,071,946 350 13,298 12,465,433 7,623 1,062,235 1,069,858
2000 9,909,127 4,148,776 2,610 50,545 14,254,348 2,630 1,271,887 1,274,517
1999 9,727,855 3,157,441 182 25,719 13,023,411 2,030 1,137,319 1,139,349
2,842 462,427 178,114
Central Japan Commodity Exchange (CJCE), Japan (formerly NGSE, NTE, and TDCE) R ed B ea n s I mported Soybeans Non-GMO Soybeans Hen Egg Gasoline Kerosene Total Futures
390,475
Osaka Securities Exchange(OSE), Japan Nikkei 225 I ndex Nikkei 300 I ndex Total Futures Nikkei 225 I ndex Nikkei 300 I ndex All Options on I ndividual Equities Total Options
Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME), Japan (formerly KRE and OTE) Cotton Yarn (20S) Cotton Yarn (40S) Rubber (RSS3) Rubber (TSR20) Rubber I ndex Aluminum Nickel Total Futures
1,355,731 2,218,159
Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), Japan Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Aluminum Gasoline Kerosene Crude Oil Gas Oil R u b b er Total Futures
Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), Japan 10-Year Government Yen Bond TOPI X Stock I ndex Electric Appliance I ndex Bank I ndex Total Futures TOPI X 10-Year Government Yen Bond Total Options
58T
VOLUME WORLDWIDE Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE), Japan American Soybeans Non-GMO Soybeans Soybean Meal Arabic Coffee R ed B ea n s Corn Refined Sugar Robusta Coffee Raw Sugar Total Futures American Soybean Corn Raw Sugar Total Options
2003 1,745,697 6,735,421 52,039 5,019,572 555,190 5,984,743 2,842 617,327 371,896 21,084,727 17,548 12,214 5,979 35,741
2002 1,001,747 3,416,660 210,829 4,844,715 593,087 7,431,128 2,864 460,507 709,394 18,670,931 21,515 16,511 19,309 57,335
2001 1,740,613 3,342,542 268,513 4,465,044 1,093,922 10,341,897 2,874 420,873 1,031,530 22,707,808 19,040 52,012 37,544 108,596
2000 2,355,163 2,875,667
1999 3,279,175
4,231,369 680,751 8,341,227 2,886 729,618 1,561,657 20,778,338 84,819 113,888 85,957 284,664
3,508,798 1,378,169 8,107,879 2,842 699,153 1,042,427 18,018,443 79,955 141,578 153,285 374,818
Yokohama Commodity Exchange (YCE), Japan (formerly Maebashi Dried Cocoon & Yokohama Raw Silk Ex.) Raw Silk I nternaional Raw Silk Dried Cocoon Potato Total Futures Total Futures Percent Change Total Options Percent Change Total Futures and Options Percent Change
2003 919,049 11,581 27,368 894,160 1,852,158
2002 698,321 40,935 29,385 738,569 1,507,210
2001 602,727 241,004 69,789 399,351 1,312,871
2000 789,795 387,081 208,119
1999 704,657
1,384,995
895,705
1,927,472,371
1,473,598,607
1,173,022,823
952,905,056
781,797,938
30.80%
25.62%
23.10%
21.89%
-2.04%
4,012,673,793
2,898,783,708
1,630,793,276
722,899,112
523,145,631
38.43%
77.75%
125.59%
38.18%
51.70%
5,940,146,164
4,372,382,315
2,803,816,099
1,675,804,168
1,304,943,569
35.86%
55.94%
67.31%
28.42%
14.17%
191,048
59T
Conversion Factors Commonly Used Agricultural Weights and Measurements Bushel Weights: wheat and soybeans = 60 lbs. corn, sorghum and rye = 56 lbs. barley grain = 48 lbs. barley malt = 34 lbs. oats = 32 lbs.
1 tonne (metric ton) equals: 36.7437 bushels of wheat or soybeans 39.3679 bushels of corn, sorghum or rye 45.9296 bushels of barley grain 68.8944 bushels of oats 4.5929 cotton bales (the statistical bale used by the USDA and ICAC contains a net weight of 480 pounds of lint)
Bushels to tonnes: wheat and soybeans = bushels X 0.027216 barley grain = bushels X 0.021772 corn, sorghum and rye = bushels X 0.0254 oats = bushels X 0.014515
Area Measurements: 1 acre = 43,560 square feet = 0.040694 hectare 1 hectare = 2.4710 acres = 10,000 square meters 640 acres = 1 square mile = 259 hectares
1 tonne (metric ton) equals: 2204.622 lbs. 1,000 kilograms 22.046 hundredweight 10 quintals
Yields: wheat: bushels per acre X 0.6725 = quintals per hectare rye, corn: bushels per acre X 0.6277 = quintals per hectare barley grain: bushels per acre X 0.538 = quintals per hectare oats: bushels per acre X 0.3587 = quintals per hectare
Commonly Used Weights The troy, avoirdupois and apothecaries’ grains are identical in U.S. and British weight systems, equal to 0.0648 gram in the metric system. One avoirdupois ounce equals 437.5 grains. The troy and apothecaries’ ounces equal 480 grains, and their pounds contain 12 ounces. Troy weights and conversions:100 kilograms = 1 quintal 24 grains = 1 pennyweight 20 pennyweights = 1 ounce 12 ounces = 1 pound 1 troy ounce = 31.103 grams 1 troy ounce = 0.0311033 kilogram 1 troy pound = 0.37224 kilogram 1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces 1 tonne = 32,151 troy ounces Avoirdupois weights and conversions: 27 11/32 grains = 1 dram 16 drams = 1 ounce 16 ounces = 1 lb. 1 lb. = 7,000 grains 14 lbs. = 1 stone (British) 100 lbs. = 1 hundredweight (U.S.) 112 lbs. = 8 stone = 1 hundredweight (British) 2,000 lbs. = 1 short ton (U.S. ton) 2,240 lbs. = 1 long ton (British ton) 160 stone = 1 long ton 20 hundredweight = 1 ton 1 lb. = 0.4536 kilogram 1 hundredweight (cwt.) = 45.359 kilograms 1 short ton = 907.18 kilograms 1 long ton = 1,016.05 kilograms
60T
Metric weights and conversions: 1,000 grams = 1 kilogram 1 tonne = 1,000 kilograms = 10 quintals 1 kilogram = 2.204622 lbs. 1 quintal = 220.462 lbs. 1 tonne = 2204.6 lbs. 1 tonne = 1.102 short tons 1 tonne = 0.9842 long ton U.S. dry volumes and conversions: 1 pint = 33.6 cubic inches = 0.5506 liter 2 pints = 1 quart = 1.1012 liters 8 quarts = 1 peck = 8.8098 liters 4 pecks = 1 bushel = 35.2391 liters 1 cubic foot = 28.3169 liters U.S. liquid volumes and conversions: 1 ounce = 1.8047 cubic inches = 29.6 milliliters 1 cup = 8 ounces = 0.24 liter = 237 milliliters 1 pint = 16 ounces = 0.48 liter = 473 milliliters 1 quart = 2 pints = 0.946 liter = 946 milliliters 1 gallon = 4 quarts = 231 cubic inches = 3.785 liters 1 milliliter = 0.033815 fluid ounce 1 liter = 1.0567 quarts = 1,000 milliliters 1 liter = 33.815 fluid ounces 1 imperial gallon = 277.42 cubic inches = 1.2 U.S. gallons = 4.546 liters
ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS U.S. Crude Oil (average gravity) 1 U.S. barrel = 42 U.S. gallons 1 short ton = 6.65 barrels 1 tonne = 7.33 barrels
residual fuel oil lubricating oil grease white spirits paraffin oil paraffin wax petrolatum asphalt and road oil petroleum coke bitumen LPG
Barrels per tonne for various origins Abu Dhabi 7.624 Algeria 7.661 Angola 7.206 Australia 7.775 Bahrain 7.335 Brunei 7.334 Canada 7.428 Dubai 7.295 Ecuador 7.58 Gabon 7.245 Indonesia 7.348 Iran 7.37 Iraq 7.453 Kuwait 7.261 Libya 7.615 Mexico 7.104 Neutral Zone 6.825 Nigeria 7.41 Norway 7.444 Oman 7.39 Qatar 7.573 Romania 7.453 Saudi Arabia 7.338 Trinidad 6.989 Tunisia 7.709 United Arab Emirates 7.522 United Kingdom 7.279 United States 7.418 Former Soviet Union 7.35 Venezuela 7.005 Zaire 7.206
6.45 7 6.3 8.5 7.14 7.87 7.87 6.06 5.5 6.06 11.6
Approximate heat content of refined products: (Million Btu per barrel, 1 British thermal unit is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of 1 pound of water 1 degree F.) Petroleum Product Heat Content asphalt 6.636 aviation gasoline 5.048 butane 4.326 distillate fuel oil 5.825 ethane 3.082 isobutane 3.974 jet fuel, kerosene 5.67 jet fuel, naptha 5.355 kerosene 5.67 lubricants 6.065 motor gasoline 5.253 natural gasoline 4.62 pentanes plus 4.62 Petrochemical feedstocks: naptha less than 401*F 5.248 other oils equal to or greater than 401*F 5.825 still gas 6 petroleum coke 6.024 plant condensate 5.418 propane 3.836 residual fuel oil 6.287 special napthas 5.248 unfinished oils 5.825 unfractionated steam 5.418 waxes 5.537 Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Barrels per tonne of refined products: aviation gasoline 8.9 motor gasoline 8.5 kerosene 7.75 jet fuel 8 distillate, including diesel 7.46 (continued above)
Natural Gas Conversions Although there are approximately 1,031 Btu in a cubic foot of gas, for most applications, the following conversions are sufficient: Cubic Feet 1,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000
MMBtu (one thousand cubic feet) (one million cubic feet) (ten million cubic feet) (one billion cubic feet) (one trillion cubic feet)
= = = = =
1 Mcf 1 MMcf 10 MMcf 1 Bcf 1 Tcf
= = = = =
1 1,000 10,000 1,000,000 1,000,000,000
61T
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Aluminum Aluminum, symbol Al, is a silvery, lightweight metal that is the most abundant metallic element in the earth’s crust. Aluminum was first isolated in 1825 by a Danish chemist, Hans Christian Oersted, using a chemical process involving a potassium amalgam. A German chemist, Friedrich Woehler, improved Oersted’s process by using metallic potassium in 1827. He was the first to show aluminum’s lightness. In France, Henri Sainte-Claire Deville isolated the metal by reducing aluminum chloride with sodium and established a large-scale experimental plant in 1854. He displayed pure aluminum at the Paris Exposition of 1855. In 1886, Charles Martin Hall in the US and Paul L.T. Heroult in France simultaneously discovered the first practical method for producing aluminum through electrolytic reduction. The low-cost Hall-Heroult process is still the major method used for the commercial production of aluminum today. By volume, aluminum weighs less than one-third as much as steel. This high strength-to-weight ratio makes aluminum a good choice for construction of aircraft, railroad cars, and automobiles. Aluminum is used in cooking utensils and the pistons of internal-combustion engines because of its high heat conductivity. Aluminum foil, siding, and storm windows make excellent insulators. Because it absorbs relatively few neutrons, aluminum is used in lowtemperature nuclear reactors. Aluminum is also useful in boat hulls and various marine devices due to its resistance to corrosion in salt water. There were 23 primary aluminum reduction plants in the US as of 2001, operated by 12 different companies. Aluminum futures and options are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum futures are traded on the Tokyo Com-
World Production of Primary Aluminum Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
modity Exchange (TOCOM), the Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). The NYMEX aluminum futures contract calls for the delivery of 44,000 pounds of aluminum and the contract is priced in terms of cents per pound. Prices – NYMEX aluminum prices in 2003 staged a very sharp rally in the latter half of 2003 due to the sharp upward rebound in US economic activity and to the weak dollar. Aluminum futures closed 2003 at 74.6 cents per pound, up 16.6% from the 2002 close of 63.95 cents. The 2003 close of 74.6 cents was only mildly below the contract high of 76.95 cents posted in September 2000 before the 2000-03 economic slump began in earnest. Supply – World production of aluminum rose 6.6% in 2002, the latest reporting year for the data series, to a record high of 25.900 million metric tons, up from 24.300 million in 2001. The world’s largest producers of aluminum are China with 16.6% of world production, Russia (12.9%), US (10.5%), Canada (10.5%), and Australia (7.1%). US production of aluminum in 2003 was on track to rise slightly to 2.7 million metric tons, up from 2.707 million in 2002 but still well below the high near 4 million seen in the early 1990s. The US produced 2.930 million metric tons of aluminum from scrap in 2002, more than the 2.707 million metric tons produced from mined ore. Demand – US consumption of aluminum in 2002 rose to 6.310 million metric tons from 6.230 million in 2001, although the 2001-2002 levels were depressed from the previous several years due to weak US economic growth. Trade – US imports of aluminum in 2002 rose to 4.060 million metric tons from 3.740 million in 2001. US imports in 2002 rose slightly to 1.320 million metric tons from 1.300 million in 2001.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
Norway
Russia
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
Venezuela
World Total
1,317 1,297 1,372 1,495 1,627 1,718 1,769 1,798 1,836
1,185 1,188 1,195 1,200 1,208 1,250 1,271 1,131 1,318
2,255 2,172 2,283 2,327 2,374 2,390 2,373 2,583 2,709
1,450 1,680 1,770 1,960 2,340 2,530 2,800 3,250 4,300
437 372 380 399 424 455 441 462 450
505 575 576 572 612 634 644 652 650
857 847 863 919 996 1,020 1,026 1,068 1,096
2,670 2,724 2,874 2,906 3,005 3,146 3,245 3,300 3,347
338 361 362 360 362 364 366 376 380
231 238 240 248 258 272 305 341 340
3,299 3,375 3,577 3,603 3,713 3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707
585 630 629 634 585 570 569 571 570
19,211 19,668 20,800 21,700 22,600 23,600 24,400 24,300 25,900
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Production of Primary Aluminum (Domestic and Foreign Ores) in the U.S.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
293 281 301 305 309 315 329 256 210 242
261 253 283 277 280 287 308 220 197 220
286 280 303 307 312 320 327 232 220 238
269 272 293 295 305 309 316 225 216 225
277 285 303 304 316 319 327 229 228 228
268 277 293 296 307 310 299 215 225 221
275 288 301 305 319 319 296 214 238 226
274 286 302 304 318 324 296 212 237 225
267 280 292 294 309 310 291 206 227 217
277 289 304 307 315 323 300 214 235 224
270 285 295 298 307 316 289 208 232 215
280 299 305 310 317 328 291 205 241
3,299 3,375 3,577 3,603 3,713 3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707 2,707
1
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1
ALUMINUM
Cents Per Pound ----- Pig Ingots, New York (Jan. 1910 - Nov. 1986) Pig Ingots, Midwest ( Dec. 1986 - date) ----- Scrap Clippings, New York (Jan. 1929 - Dec. 1984) Scrap Clippings, Midwest (Jan. 1985 - date) - - - Scrap, Old Sheet, Cast, New York (Jan. 1929 - Dec. 1984) Scrap, Old Sheet, Cast, Midwest (Jan. 1985 - date)
Salient Statistics of Aluminum in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons ---------------------------------- Net Shipments5 by Producers ---------------------------------
Year
Net Import ----------- Wrought Products ----------- ----------------- Castings ----------------Total Reliance P r o d u c t i o n R e c o v e r y f r o m Primary Apparent Plate, Rolled All Net as a % of ExPermaShip- ------ Scrap -----Con- Sheet, Structural ShipApparent Secondtruded nent Foil Shapes3 Shapes4 ments Consumption Primary ary OLd New sumption All Mold Die Sand All ments
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021
19 30 23 22 23 25 30 33 35 39
3,695 3,299 3,375 3,577 3,603 3,713 3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707
2,944 3,086 3,189 3,310 3,550 3,440 3,700 3,450 2,970 2,930
7,326 8,169 8,258 8,330 8,880 9,260 9,840 9,830 9,310 9,640
1,630 1,500 1,510 1,570 1,530 1,500 1,570 1,370 1,210 1,170
1,312 1,583 1,684 1,730 2,020 1,950 2,120 2,080 1,760 1,750
6,612 6,879 6,295 6,610 6,720 7,090 7,770 7,530 6,230 6,310
4,030 4,810 4,900 4,430 4,710 4,760 5,000 4,840 4,380 4,510
297 296 526 350 315 551 549 592 354 369
1,300 1,420 1,540 1,540 1,610 1,560 1,640 1,640 1,460 1,450
5,770 6,690 7,130 6,480 6,800 7,040 7,360 7,240 6,330 6,470
225 645 247 551 442 627 473 612 468 670 511 584 484 1,020 549 991 489 871 NA NA
103 208 207 180 153 134 158 152 124 NA
994 1,050 1,440 1,390 1,410 1,350 1,790 1,850 1,650 NA
6,770 7,740 8,580 7,860 8,210 8,390 9,150 9,080 7,980 NA
1
Preliminary. 2 To domestic industry. 3 Also rod, bar & wire. 4 Also rod, bar, tube, blooms & tubing. 5 Consists of total shipments less shipments to other mills for further fabrication. NA = Not available. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Supply and Distribution of Aluminum in the United States
Year
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1
2
Apparent Consumption
5,043 5,715 6,612 6,879 6,295 6,610
Preliminary.
2
---- Production ---From Primary Old Scrap
4,121 4,042 3,695 3,299 3,375 3,577 Estimate.
1,317 1,612 1,632 1,503 1,505 1,570 3
Inventories -- December 31 -GovernImports Exports Private ment2
1,490 1,725 2,545 3,382 2,975 2,810
1,762 1,453 1,207 1,365 1,610 1,500
National Defense Stockpile.
1,945 2,156 2,209 2,149 2,099 1,860 4
2 57 57 57 57 57
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Inventories Apparent ---- Production ----- December 31 -ConsumpFrom Governtion Primary Old Scrap Imports Exports Private Year ment2
1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
Less than 1/2 unit.
6,720 7,090 7,770 7,530 6,230 6,310
3,603 3,713 3,779 3,668 2,637 2,707
1,530 1,500 1,570 1,370 1,210 1,170
3,080 3,550 4,000 3,910 3,740 4,060
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1,570 1,590 1,650 1,760 1,590 1,590
1,860 1,930 1,870 1,550 1,300 1,320
4
----------------
ALUMINUM Aluminum Products Distribution of End-Use Shipments in the United States Year
Building & Construction
Consumer Durables
Containers & Packaging
Electrical
1,240 1,400 1,220 1,330 1,320 1,390 1,470 1,450 1,500 1,560
563 647 621 655 694 725 760 767 681 722
2,180 2,270 2,310 2,180 2,220 2,270 2,320 2,260 2,250 2,260
609 682 657 671 708 714 739 771 686 677
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
Preliminary.
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 1
Exports
Transportaion
Other
Total
1,090 1,200 1,310 1,290 1,360 1,260 1,330 1,280 902 1,070
477 572 570 569 626 629 661 679 641 616
1,970 2,310 2,610 2,640 2,990 3,250 3,600 3,600 3,190 3,410
259 276 279 291 318 273 293 293 367 390
8,390 9,360 9,570 9,610 10,200 10,500 11,200 11,100 10,200 10,700
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Wo rld C o n su mp tio n o f P rimary Alu min u m Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Machinery & Equipment
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
Canada
Chi na
France
Germany
India
Italy
Japan
Rep. of Korea
Russia
United Ki ngdom
Uni ted States
World Total
377.1 378.9 414.1 500.6 497.0 478.6 521.4 463.1 513.8 550.8
420.4 492.5 559.0 611.9 619.9 628.2 720.6 777.2 798.7 759.6
1,253.8 1,339.9 1,500.1 1,941.6 2,135.3 2,260.3 2,425.4 2,925.9 3,499.1 3,545.4
730.5 667.2 736.3 743.8 671.7 724.2 733.8 774.2 780.4 772.9
1,457.1 1,150.7 1,370.3 1,491.3 1,355.4 1,558.4 1,519.0 1,438.6 1,490.3 1,590.9
414.3 475.3 475.0 581.0 584.8 553.4 566.5 569.5 602.4 558.0
660.0 554.0 660.0 665.4 585.1 671.0 675.4 735.3 780.3 770.4
2,271.6 2,138.3 2,344.8 2,335.6 2,392.6 2,434.3 2,082.0 2,112.3 2,224.9 2,014.0
397.0 524.8 603.9 675.4 674.3 666.3 505.7 814.0 822.6 849.6
1,242.0 657.0 470.0 476.0 443.8 469.2 489.2 562.8 748.4 786.2
550.0 540.0 570.0 620.0 571.0 583.0 579.0 496.8 575.5 433.3
4,616.9 4,877.1 5,407.1 5,054.8 5,348.0 5,390.0 5,813.6 6,203.3 6,079.5 5,117.0
18,529.5 18,122.6 19,670.8 20,480.9 20,596.4 21,721.8 21,797.2 23,323.0 24,811.4 23,612.8
P reliminary.
S ource: American Met al Market (AMM)
S alien t S tatistics o f R ecyclin g Alu min u m in th e U n ited S tates Year
New Old Recycled Apparent Scrap1 Scrap2 Metal3 Supply -------------------- In T h o u san d s o f Metric To n s -------------------
Percent Recycled
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
40 37 36 40 40 41 38 37 36 37
1,140 1,310 1,580 1,680 1,730 2,020 1,950 2,120 2,080 1,770
1,610 1,630 1,500 1,510 1,570 1,530 1,500 1,570 1,370 1,210
Scrap that results from the manufacturing process. S ource: U.S . Geolog ical S urvey (US GS )
1
2
2,760 2,940 3,090 3,190 3,310 3,550 3,440 3,700 3,450 2,980
6,870 7,920 8,460 7,980 8,340 8,740 9,040 9,890 9,610 8,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,450 1,540 2,480 3,190 2,730 3,430 2,810 3,070 3,420 2,680
Scrap that results from consumer products.
Producer Prices for Aluminum Used Beverage Can Scrap Year
New Old Recycled Apparent Scrap1 Scrap2 Metal3 Supply -------------------- Valu e in Millio n s o f D o llars -------------------
3
2,040 1,920 2,360 2,850 2,480 2,590 2,160 2,280 2,260 1,840
3,500 3,460 4,840 6,040 5,200 6,020 4,970 5,350 5,670 4,530
8,710 9,300 13,300 15,100 13,100 14,800 13,100 14,300 15,800 12,100
Metal recov ered from new plus old scrap.
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
38.45 74.85 57.73 56.98 54.53 44.50 58.58 54.26 44.50 50.50
43.08 72.24 56.00 59.00 57.00 44.50 62.90 55.50 44.66 52.30
42.50 65.00 56.24 59.00 57.00 44.20 61.50 55.45 47.21 52.45
46.60 65.00 58.90 58.27 52.95 45.68 56.85 54.50 49.41 49.43
45.50 65.00 59.00 58.05 49.85 47.45 54.50 54.23 48.68 50.17
48.98 65.00 49.70 58.05 47.09 46.50 54.50 50.79 48.50 49.75
56.40 65.00 47.50 58.32 45.50 48.40 56.50 46.93 46.89 49.22
56.00 67.98 49.25 59.60 44.50 49.00 57.00 45.50 45.06 49.83
56.00 64.80 50.20 59.50 46.21 49.00 57.00 45.50 46.36 47.43
62.64 58.45 48.50 59.13 44.50 53.79 56.20 44.63 47.07 50.17
70.40 57.00 49.03 59.00 44.50 55.50 53.50 44.50 49.76 52.00
71.00 58.50 53.50 57.12 46.14 57.64 53.50 44.50 50.29 53.73
53.13 64.91 52.96 58.50 49.15 48.84 56.88 49.71 47.37 50.58
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
3
ALUMINUM Average Price of Cast Aluminum Scrap (Crank Cases) in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
20.00 53.53 37.50 36.09 37.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 26.00 28.10
25.79 54.08 37.50 36.50 37.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 27.47 30.00
28.33 49.02 37.50 36.50 37.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 28.95 30.00
32.50 48.50 37.50 36.50 35.95 25.50 35.55 31.00 30.00 29.00
32.50 44.41 37.50 36.50 35.50 26.45 31.09 31.00 30.00 29.00
33.18 42.50 37.50 36.50 31.59 29.23 30.32 31.00 30.00 27.90
35.90 43.76 37.50 36.50 25.50 36.83 30.30 28.29 30.00 26.68
36.50 45.80 36.50 39.36 25.50 37.50 32.00 28.00 29.64 26.00
41.07 45.05 35.40 38.60 25.50 37.50 32.00 28.00 28.00 26.00
44.45 39.27 33.80 38.50 25.50 37.50 31.09 28.00 28.00 26.00
50.50 37.50 33.50 38.50 25.50 37.50 31.00 26.40 28.00 26.00
53.50 37.50 33.50 38.07 25.50 37.50 31.00 26.00 28.00 26.00
36.19 45.08 36.27 37.34 30.71 31.87 33.04 29.25 28.67 27.56
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Aluminum Exports of Crude Metal and Alloys from the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
22.1 26.1 23.1 31.0 21.2 18.6 18.7 19.6 17.1 14.3
18.3 32.7 27.9 25.5 21.4 26.7 27.2 16.1 15.2 14.8
28.3 25.4 31.2 22.5 21.8 23.9 30.2 18.9 15.6 14.5
17.9 31.1 34.3 33.0 17.4 22.7 21.9 14.7 16.4 16.9
37.5 31.4 46.2 24.1 22.6 25.2 24.4 16.8 19.4 17.0
30.5 20.7 54.3 34.9 21.8 27.7 22.4 15.6 18.3 17.8
30.6 26.6 36.3 23.9 20.9 23.7 20.5 12.4 15.0 16.5
38.3 39.2 33.7 33.2 21.5 27.5 24.2 14.5 15.5 20.4
40.3 38.9 30.2 34.4 28.0 26.1 20.5 12.6 17.5 18.7
24.8 33.0 40.3 26.5 23.9 31.4 20.7 18.9 19.8 22.9
26.1 30.4 33.2 33.0 20.4 30.3 20.7 16.7 19.4
24.1 33.6 26.2 30.0 24.7 34.8 21.6 15.1 16.4
338.9 369.1 416.9 352.0 265.6 318.6 273.0 191.9 205.6 208.6
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Aluminum General Imports of Crude Metal and Alloys into the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
200.2 214.0 158.0 145.0 220.0 191.0 246.0 193.0 272.0 215.0
157.8 168.0 150.0 147.0 204.0 200.0 213.0 200.0 205.0 246.0
282.0 204.0 148.0 209.0 202.0 240.0 206.0 237.0 223.0 350.0
206.9 195.0 188.0 196.0 200.0 311.0 211.0 197.0 221.0 202.0
251.9 184.0 176.0 198.0 189.0 281.0 233.0 209.0 221.0 265.0
179.3 172.0 169.0 167.0 243.0 258.0 234.0 179.0 263.0 261.0
202.8 136.0 139.0 157.0 170.0 213.0 250.0 201.0 228.0 233.0
198.3 134.0 149.0 152.0 204.0 219.0 206.0 198.0 279.0 194.0
160.0 117.0 136.0 150.0 198.0 178.0 189.0 252.0 235.0 215.0
183.4 137.0 170.0 175.0 198.0 202.0 186.0 220.0 196.0 210.0
240.1 139.0 147.0 146.0 189.0 178.0 181.0 248.0 264.0
222.2 133.0 180.0 222.0 177.0 180.0 137.0 227.0 186.0
2,484.9 1,933.0 1,910.0 2,060.0 2,394.0 2,651.0 2,490.0 2,561.0 2,793.0 2,869.2
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Open Interest of Aluminum Futures in New York Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
---794 2,446 3,277 9,573
---580 3,173 2,744 9,163
---254 3,450 2,738 6,960
---326 3,529 2,250 7,190
1,032 965 3,269 2,397 7,686
1,461 2,035 3,724 2,902 8,529
1,875 3,938 3,891 3,903 8,402
1,984 4,803 3,459 4,618 8,445
1,767 4,580 2,753 4,643 7,655
1,244 4,598 3,728 5,139 7,283
625 3,587 3,644 8,057 8,434
615 2,046 3,276 10,479 9,471
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX Division
Volume of Trading of Aluminum Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
---1,224 7,361 2,774 12,565
---2,394 1,694 4,635 9,625
---1,664 4,410 4,924 8,163
---1,901 2,822 2,593 5,440
6,179 3,859 2,853 5,388 10,567
5,875 3,566 4,634 5,389 8,463
5,275 6,295 4,404 8,953 11,797
3,373 3,767 3,794 4,194 9,451
3,114 5,993 1,428 2,571 5,119
2,801 6,365 2,887 7,328 6,222
639 5,055 4,251 16,185 8,536
722 4,016 2,551 9,066 11,542
27,978 46,099 43,089 74,000 107,490
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX Division
4
Antimony fell –14.2% to 143,000 metric tons from the record high production level of 167,000 metric tons in 2001. China accounted for 91% of world antimony production in 2002, with only South Africa (4.1% of world production) and Bolivia (1.5%), showing world production shares above 1%. The 14.2% drop in antimony production in 2002 was mainly due to the -13.3% drop in Chinese production to 130,000 metric tons from a record 150,000 tons in 2001. US secondary production of antimony in 2002 fell slightly to 5,350 metric tons from 5,380 metric tons in 2001. Demand – US industrial consumption of antimony in 2002 fell to 12,900 metric tons from 13,100 in 2001. Of that consumption in 2002, 57% was for flame-retardants at 7,420 metric tons, down from 7,570 metric tons in 2001. Trade – US imports in 2002 of antimony ore fell to 1,320 metric tons from 2,610 in 2001, with the antimony content falling to 1,310 metric tons from 2,290 in 2001. Imports of antimony oxide in 2002 rose to 27,900 from 27,700 in 2001. US exports of antimony oxide fell to 3,260 metric tons from 5,880 metric tons in 2001.
Antimony is a lustrous, extremely brittle and hard crystalline semi-mental that is silvery white in its most common allotropic form. Antimony is a poor conductor of heat and electricity. In nature, antimony has a strong affinity for sulfur and for such metals as lead, silver, and copper. Antimony is primarily a byproduct of the mining, smelting and refining of lead, silver, and copper ores. There is no longer any mine production of antimony in the US. The most common use of antimony is in antimony trioxide, a chemical that is used as a flame retardant in textiles, plastics, adhesives and building materials. Antimony trioxide is also used in battery components, ceramics, bearings, chemicals, glass, and ammunition. Prices – Antimony prices in 2003 rallied sharply to an average of 110.89 cents per pound. That was a 7-year high and was up sharply by 17% from the 2002 level of 94.83 cents. Bullish factors were the same as for other key metals in 2003—the weak dollar and much stronger US economic growth in the second half of the year. Supply – World mine production of antimony in 2002
World Mine Production of Antimony (Content of Ore) Year
1999 2000 20011 20022
Australia
Bolivia
Canada
China2
Guatemala
1,679 1,511 1,380 1,200
2,790 1,907 2,264 2,200
357 364 234 143
89,600 110,000 150,000 130,000
-------------
In Metric Tons
Kyrgyzstan
Mexico3
Peru4
Russia
South Africa
Thailand
Turkey
World Total
100 150 150 150
126 39 -------
255 461 274 300
4,000 4,500 4,500 ----
5,278 4,104 4,827 5,800
59 84 18 24
180 360 370 370
107,000 125,000 167,000 143,000
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes antimony content of miscellaneous smelter products. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Antimony in the United States
Year
Avg. Price cents/lb. CIF U.S. Ports
1999 2000 20011 20022
62.7 65.5 64.7 88.4
----------- Production3 ---------------- Primary2 ------ Secondary (Alloys)2 Mine Smelter
15,300 13,300 9,080 W
8,220 7,700 5,380 5,350
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Antimony content. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Metric Tons -------------- Industry Stocks, December 313 --------------
4
Gross Weight
Antimony Content
Oxide (Gross Weight)
Exports (Oxide)
Metallic
Oxide
Sulfide
Other
Total4
3,590 4,630 2,610 1,320
2,870 3,690 2,290 1,310
23,100 28,500 27,700 27,900
3,190 6,040 5,880 3,260
2,430 2,540 645 729
5,780 3,970 4,090 4,510
W W W W
2,720 270 256 253
10,900 6,780 4,990 5,490
I ncluding primary antimony residues & slag.
Industrial Consumption of Primary Antimony in the United States ---------------------------------- Metal Products ----------------------------------
Year
Ammu- Antimonial nition Lead
1999 2000 2001 20021
W W W W
1
2
Preliminary.
1,110 1,040 1,060 887
Sheet & P i pe
Bearing Metal & Bearings
Solder
Total All Metal Products
W W W W
29 42 52 42
136 135 78 89
2,440 2,980 2,800 2,760
Estimated coverage based on 77% of the industry.
Year
1
W = Withheld proprietary data.
In Metric Tons (Antimony Content) ----------------------- Non-Metal Products -----------------------
----- Retardents ----- Ceramics Plastics Total & Glass Pigments
6,370 8,940 6,210 6,060
7,140 9,910 7,570 7,420
1,120 1,020 518 505
W=Withheld proprietary data.
Average Price of Antimony1 in the United States 2000 2001 2002 2003
Recoverable.
-- Imports for Consumption ------------ Ore ---------
450 W -------
4
1,020 620 653 565
Plastics
Total
Grand Total
1,580 1,330 1,050 1,090
3,940 3,490 2,760 2,710
13,500 16,400 13,100 12,900
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
66.50 84.90 69.50 121.53
66.50 75.00 69.50 109.15
66.50 75.00 69.50 118.48
66.50 75.00 69.50 119.49
66.50 75.00 64.22 119.77
66.50 75.00 65.13 119.07
68.38 75.00 73.09 107.86
69.00 75.00 86.97 105.01
84.40 73.26 113.24 105.01
91.00 69.50 149.59 105.01
91.00 69.50 141.91 102.76
91.00 69.50 135.25 97.52
74.48 74.31 94.83 110.89
Prices are for antimony metal (99.65%) merchants, minimum 18-ton containers, c.i.f. U.S. Ports.
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
5
Apples The apple tree is the common name of trees from the rose family, Rosaceae, and the fruit that comes from them. The apple tree is a deciduous plant and grows mainly in the temperate areas of the world. The apple tree probably originated in the Caspian and Black Sea area. Apples were the favorite fruit of the ancient Greeks and Romans. The early settlers brought apple seeds with them and introduced them to America. John Champman, also known as Johnny Appleseed, was responsible for extensive planting of apple trees in the Midwestern United States. Supply – US production of apples in 2003 was forecast at 220.633 million bushels (42-pound units), up 8% from the poor crop level seen in 2002. Despite the 8% increase,
the 2003 crop size was the second lowest since 1988 and fell behind the 5-year average of 242.120 million bushels. The rise in US apple production in 2003 was mainly due to a sharp 63% increase in apple production in the US Midwest. Production in the eastern US rose 27%, but production in the key western US fell by 5%. Production of red and golden delicious apples in 2003 continued to fall and accounted for only 41% of total US apple production versus 50% in 2000. Demand – The utilization breakdown of the 2002 apple crop showed that 63% of apples were for fresh consumption, 18% for juice and cider, 13% for canning, 3% for dried apples, and 2% for frozen apples.
World Production of Apples3, Fresh (Dessert & Cooking)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Argentina
Canada
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Ja p a n
Netherlands
South Africa
Spain
Turkey
United States
World Total
1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
1,316 847 1,331 900 1,000 ----
523 582 532 467 402 440
1,794 2,166 2,300 2,055 2,060 2,080
1,980 1,936 2,631 1,522 1,563 1,407
482 420 700 605 540 480
2,243 2,196 2,267 2,220 2,210 1,989
879 928 800 931 926 892
507 575 500 500 370 385
675 581 668 584 600 ----
722 887 699 962 683 818
2,450 2,500 2,400 2,450 2,200 2,500
5,283 4,822 4,801 4,277 3,881 4,242
46,734 47,575 47,935 45,467 43,625 38,510
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Commercial crop.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Apples2 in the United States ------ Foreign Trade4 -------
--------------- Utiliz ation of Quantities Sold ---------------5
-- Production -- - Grow ers Prices Fresh Utilized cents/lb.
Total
Processing $/ton
--------------------- Processed ---------------------
Fresh Canned
Dried Frozen
Juice & Cider Other3
---------------------------------------- Millions of Pounds ----------------------------------------
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021
10,324 11,646 10,631 10,584 9,429 9,525
10,254 10,763 10,447 10,322 9,214 8,375
22.1 17.3 21.3 17.8 22.9 25.6
130.0 94.6 128.0 101.0 108.0 126.0
5,815 6,413 5,995 6,267 5,470 5,366
1,499 1,174 1,319 1,184 1,258 1,064
267 330 263 248 221 229
349 266 271 196 249 157
2,145 2,485 2,473 2,335 1,946 1,538
180 95 126 93 71 50
1
Preliminary. 2 Commercial crop. 3 Mostly crushed for vinegar, jam, etc. 4 Year beginning July. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Avg. Farm Price cents /lb.
15.4 12.2 15.0 12.8 15.8 18.8 5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
539.1 660.3 571.9 743.6 592.4 691.9
18.0 15.7 21.5 33.3 21.4
173.6 171.8 195.3 180.6 193.9 157.1
18.4 19.4 19.0 17.9
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
21.9 15.8 21.8 15.8 22.1 25.8
20.8 15.0 20.3 15.2 21.6 24.6
20.5 15.3 19.8 14.6 22.0 22.6
19.4 14.1 19.3 15.7 21.8 23.4
17.8 13.3 17.8 15.2 21.5 21.8
16.3 12.7 16.1 14.9 22.0 22.4
12.7 16.3 16.2 15.2 20.6 20.0
13.8 22.7 19.5 17.3 24.5 25.8
22.6 21.6 23.3 21.2 30.0 25.1
22.1 24.3 21.8 24.8 30.1 27.3
17.5 22.9 18.5 23.5 26.8 27.4
14.9 23.2 18.1 23.1 26.3 28.5
18.4 18.1 19.4 18.0 24.1 24.6
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Cents Per Pound ----- Average Received by Growers, US (Jan. 1947 - date)
6
1,575.4 1,316.2 1,563.6 1,320.8 1,453.1 1,572.2
Fresh weight basis.
Price of Apples Received by Grow ers (for Fresh Use) in the United States Year
---- Domestic ---Imports Farm Fresh Value Exports Dried5 & Dried5 Million Fresh ------ Metric Tons -----$
Fresh P er Capita Consumption L b s.
Arsenic ronmental concerns that could limit its use in the future. Demand for arsenic and arsenic compounds, therefore, derives from new home construction and from renovation and wooden deck construction. Arsenic and arsenic compounds are very toxic and increased scrutiny of products using arsenic is expected to result in more environmental regulations in the future, thus reducing future demand for arsenic. Recently, small doses of arsenic have been found to put some forms of cancer into remission. It can also help thin blood. Homoeopathists have successfully used undetectable amounts of arsenic to cure stomach cramps. Traditionally used as a nonferrous alloy for enhancing properties such as hardening of lead and resistance to corrosion. Arsenic is also used in the manufacture of glass and in the making of CCA pressure-treated wood. Supply – US supply of arsenic in 2002 fell to 19,700 metric tons from 25,000 metric tons in 2001. World production of white arsenic (arsenic trioxide) in 2002 was unchanged from 2001 at a 22-year low of 35,000 metric tons. The world’s largest producer by far is China with 46% of world production, followed by Chile with 23% of world production. Demand – Demand for arsenic fell to 19,600 metric tons in 2002 from 24,900 metric tons in 2001. Of that demand, 17,300 metric tons was for wood preservatives, 700 metric tons for glass, 650 metric tons for non-ferrous alloys and electric usage, and 200 for other uses. Trade – US imports of trioxide arsenic in 2002 fell to 24,700 metric tons from 31,500 metric tons in 2001. US exports were negligible at 100 metric tons, up from 57 metric tons in 2001.
Arsenic, symbol As, is a silver-gray, extremely poisonous, semi-metallic element. Arsenic, which is odorless and flavorless, has been known since ancient times, but it wasn’t until the Middle Ages that its poisonous characteristics first become known. Metallic arsenic was first produced in the 17th century by heating arsenic with potash and soap. Arsenic is rarely found in nature in its elemental form and is generally recovered as a by-product of ore processing. The U.S. Geological Survey reported that no arsenic was removed from domestic ores in the United States. All arsenic metals and compounds used in the U.S. are imported. More than 95 percent of the arsenic consumed is in compound form, mostly as arsenic trioxide, which in turn is converted into arsenic acid. Production of chromated copper arsenate, a wood preservative, accounts for over 90 percent of the domestic consumption of arsenic trioxide. Three companies in the US manufacture chromate copper arsenate. Another company used arsenic acid to produce an arsenical herbicide. Arsenic metal is used to produce nonferrous alloys, primarily for lead-acid batteries. One area where there is increased consumption of arsenic is in the semiconductor industry. Very high-purity arsenic is used in the production of gallium arsenide. High speed and high frequency integrated circuits that use gallium arsenide have better signal reception and lower power consumption. It is estimated that 30 metric tons per year of high-purity arsenic is used in the production of semiconductor materials. The largest domestic market for arsenic in the U.S. is in the production of arsenical wood preservatives. That is expected to continue, although there are increasing envi-
World Production of White Arsenic (Arsenic Trioxide) Year
Belgium
Bolivia
Canada4
Chile
China
France
Germany
Mexico
Namibia3
Peru
Phillippines
Russia5
World Total
2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000
663 341 362 255 282 284 437 318 846 850
250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
6,200 4,050 4,076 8,000 8,350 8,400 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
14,000 18,000 21,000 15,000 15,000 15,500 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000
3,000 6,000 5,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
300 300 250 250 250 200 200 200 100 100
4,447 4,400 3,620 2,942 2,999 2,573 2,419 2,522 2,381 2,300
2,290 3,047 1,661 1,559 1,297 175 -------------
391 286 285 111 637 624 1,611 2,495 1,958 2,000
2,000 ----------------------------
2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
42,100 46,800 47,000 42,900 42,000 40,300 41,800 38,800 35,000 35,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1 5
In Metric Tons
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Output of Tsumeb Corp. Ltd. only. Formerly part of the U.S.S.R.; not reported separately until 1992.
4
I ncludes low-grade dusts that were exported to the U.S. for further refining. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Arsenic in the United States
In Metric Tons (Arsenic Content)
Year
------------------ Supply ------------------ -- Distribution -- ------------------- Estimated Demand Pattern ------------------- -- Average Price -NonTrioxide Metal Wood Ferrous AgriculIndustry ---- Imports ---- Industry Mexican Chinese Com- Stocks Apparent Stocks Imports Preserv- Alloys & tural Metal pounds Jan. 1 Total Demand Dec.31 Chemicals Total -- Cents/Pound -- Trioxide3 Exports Glass atives Electric Other
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
767 1,330 557 252 909 997 1,300 830 1,030 879
1
Preliminary.
2
20,900 20,300 22,100 21,200 22,800 29,300 22,100 23,600 23,900 18,800
---- 21,667 ---- 21,630 ---- 22,700 ---- 21,400 ---- 23,700 ---- 30,300 ---- 23,400 ---- 24,500 ---- 25,000 ---- 19,700
Estimate.
3
21,300 21,500 22,300 21,400 23,700 30,100 22,000 24,400 24,900 19,600
For Consumption.
-------------------------------
3,000 1,200 1,000 950 1,400 1,500 1,100 ----------
900 700 700 700 700 900 600 700 750 700
16,200 18,000 19,600 19,200 20,000 26,500 19,500 21,800 21,900 17,300
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
800 1,300 600 250 900 1,200 850 700 1,000 650
400 300 400 300 300 300 200 250 250 200
21,300 21,500 22,300 21,400 23,700 30,100 22,000 24,400 24,900 19,600
33 32 33 33 31 30 -------------
44 40 66 40 32 40 -------------
27,500 364 26,800 79 29,000 430 28,000 36 30,000 61 38,600 177 29,100 1,350 31,100 41 31,500 57 24,700 100
7
Barley Barley is the common name for any of a genus of cereal grass and is native to Asia and Ethiopia. Barley is an ancient crop and was grown by the Egyptians, Greek, Romans and Chinese. Barley is now the world’s fourth largest grain crop, after wheat, rice, and corn. Barley is planted in the spring in most of Europe, Canada and the United States. The U.S. barley crop year begins June 1. It is planted in the autumn in parts of California, Arizona and along the Mediterranean Sea. Barley is hardy and drought resistant and can be grown on marginal cropland. Salt-resistant strains are being developed for use in coastal regions. Barley grain, along with hay, straw, and several by-products are used for animal feed. Barley is used for malt beverages and in cooking. Barley, like other cereals, contains a large proportion of carbohydrate (67%) and protein (12.8%). Barley futures are traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE), the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) and the Budapest Commodity Exchange. Prices – Barley prices on the Winnipeg nearest futures chart started out 2003 in the CD$180 per metric ton area, fell sharply by about 38% to the year’s low of CD$112 in July, and then recovered slightly to close the year at CD$135 per metric ton. Supply – World barley production in 2002/3 fell to 132.791 million metric tons, down from 141.788 million in 2001/2. World production is expected to recover in 2003/4
World Barley Supply and Demand
Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42 1
1,356 3,375 3,967 2,838 4,241 2,870 3,922 4,150 2,200 4,300
Preliminary.
Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
8
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------------- Exports ---------------------------------- ------------- Imports ------------- ------------- Utiliz ation ------------- -------- Ending Stocks -------Total AusCanTotal Total Saudi UnacTotal UtilTotal ization Canada U.S. Stocks tralia ada EC-15 Non-US U.S. Exports Arabia ounted Imports Russia U.S.
2
2,551 5,061 2,596 2,480 3,442 6,183 1,897 2,990 1,185 8,894 1,806 10,443 1,956 6,159 1,126 3,082 304 6,000 2,000 3,000
Estimate.
18,451 18,347 21,798 11,755 17,235 17,927 15,840 16,714 16,131 14,900
Preliminary.
Australia
Canada
China
2,913 5,823 6,696 6,482 5,987 5,032 6,743 8,423 3,713 8,000
11,690 13,035 15,562 13,527 12,709 13,196 13,172 10,846 7,489 12,300
4,411 4,089 4,000 4,000 2,656 2,970 2,646 2,893 2,470 2,200
2
Estimate.
1,355 1,182 1,214 1,071 550 853 1,068 517 551 625
19,806 19,529 23,012 12,826 17,785 18,780 16,908 17,231 16,682 15,525
4,235 3,876 5,887 4,026 5,814 5,900 5,100 6,000 7,300 5,500
99 214 737 483 809 110 535 121 125 755
19,167 19,172 22,342 12,826 17,785 18,780 16,908 17,231 16,682 15,525
24,087 17,566 16,435 16,494 12,900 11,441 12,700 14,250 15,500 17,500
8,726 7,635 8,459 6,879 7,207 6,752 6,427 5,669 5,187 5,618
165,712 150,965 149,480 146,037 138,916 132,559 134,508 136,258 135,036 144,131
1,820 1,749 2,919 2,459 2,737 2,838 2,516 2,047 1,441 2,191
2,451 2,168 2,383 2,596 3,084 2,424 2,314 2,021 1,510 2,012
28,570 19,700 23,761 32,137 28,850 24,026 22,775 28,305 26,061 19,182
Source: Foreign Agricutural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Production of Barley
1
to 139.652 million metric tons. The EU is by far the world’s largest producer of barley with 48.023 million metric tons in 2002/3, accounting for 36% of world production, followed by Russia at 18.700 million (14%), and the Ukraine at 10.350 million (8%). US production in 2002/3 fell to a record low of 4.933 million metric tons (only 3.7% of world production) from 5.430 million in 2001/2 but is expected to expand sharply to 6.011 million in 2003/4 (USDA). US planted acreage for barley has shown a steady contraction, averaging around 5 million acres in recent years versus 7 million in the mid-1990s. North Dakota and Montana are the largest producing states. Demand – U.S. total barley use in 2003/4 is expected to increase to 283.0 million bushels from the post-war record low of 269.0 million in 2002/3. Seed use has run at about 8.0 million bushels in the past several years, feed & residual use is expected to rise to 85.0 million in 2003/4 from 65.0 million in 2002/3, and demand for use in food and alcohol beverages remains steady at 164.0 million bushels. Trade – World trade in barley fell to 16.663 million metric tons from 17.231 million in 2001/2 and is expected to remain lower at 15.625 million in 2003/4. The European Union is the largest exporter with at least a third of the total, with Russia, the Ukraine, and Australia exporting much of the balance. Importing countries are many, with Saudi Arabia being the largest importer.
In Thousands of Metric Tons Denmark
France
Germany
India
Russia
Spain
3,446 3,864 3,953 3,887 3,565 3,680 3,980 3,980 4,150
7,646 7,739 9,540 10,181 10,591 9,540 9,950 9,800 11,000
10,902 11,891 12,074 13,399 12,512 13,300 12,110 13,500 11,000
1,310 1,730 1,510 1,462 1,680 1,470 1,447 1,432 1,500
27,000 15,800 15,900 20,800 9,800 10,600 14,100 19,500 18,700 15,500
7,596 5,200 9,600 8,600 10,902 7,430 11,280 6,250 8,200
Turke y
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
6,500 6,900 7,200 7,300 7,500 6,600 7,400 6,900 7,400 7,000
5,945 6,833 7,780 7,828 6,630 6,580 6,490 6,700 6,000
8,162 7,824 8,544 7,835 7,667 6,103 6,939 5,430 4,933 6,011
161,046 142,095 143,541 154,491 135,586 127,735 133,257 141,788 132,792 137,252
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
BARLEY Barley Acreage and Prices in the United States ---------------------- Seasonal Prices ---------------------- ------ Government Price Support Operations -----Year Beginning June 1
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
Acreage ----- 1,000 Acres ----Planted
Harvested for Grain
Yield Per Harvested Acre -- Bushels --
7,094 6,706 6,337 5,194 5,864 4,967 5,071 5,299
6,707 6,198 5,864 4,734 5,213 4,289 4,129 4,688
58.5 58.1 60.0 59.2 61.1 58.2 54.9 58.9
National Portland Average Target No. 2 All F eed4 Malting4 Price Western Loan Rate --------------------------------------- Dollars per Bushel ------------------------------------------------ Received by Farmers3 ---------
2.70 2.33 1.95 2.10 2.12 2.18 2.69 2.85
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Excludes support payments. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
4
2.32 1.86 1.55 1.65 1.74 1.74 2.16 2.31
2.86 2.69 2.33 2.50 2.36 2.58 2.97 3.12
3.07 2.49 1.96 2.11 2.25
Duluth through May 1998.
Salient Statistics of Barley in the United States
1.55 1.57 1.56 1.59 1.62 1.62
NA NA NA NA NA NA
Put Under Support (mil. Bu.)
% of Production
28.7 33.3 25.9 13.6 16.0 NA
7.3 9.3 7.4 4.9 5.0 NA
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Millions of Bushels
------------------------------------ Disappearance ----------------------------------Year Beginning June 1
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
-------------------- Domestic Use -------------------F ood & -------------------- Supply -------------------Beginning ProducTotal F eed & Acohol Stocks tion Imports Supply Beverages Seed Residual Total
99.6 109.5 119.2 141.7 111.0 106.0 93.0 69.0
392.4 360.0 359.9 352.1 318.7 249.4 226.6 276.1
36.8 40.3 29.8 25.0 29.0 24.0 18.0 25.0
528.8 509.6 501.2 448.5 459.0 380.0 338.0 370.0
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Uncommitted inventory. Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
160.9 161.6 161.4 162.5 164.0 164.0 164.0 4
11.1 10.4 8.6 9.5 8.0 8.0 8.0
216.5 144.0 161.1 136.0 123.0 88.0 65.0 75.0
388.5 316.0 331.1 308.0 295.0 260.0 237.0
Total D i sa p Exports pearance
30.8 74.4 28.5 30.0 58.0 26.0 30.0 25.0
419.3 390.3 359.5 338.0 353.0 287.0 269.0 273.0
I ncludes quantity under loan & farmer-owned reserve.
---------- Ending Stocks --------Gov’t Privately Total Owned Owned3 Stocks
0 0 0.3 0 0 0 0 0
109.5 119.2 141.4 111.0 106.0 93.0 69.0 97.0
109.5 119.2 141.7 111.0 106.0 93.0 69.0 97.0
Source: Economic Research
Cents Per Bushel ----- Malting, Top Quality, Mpls. (Jan. 1972 - date) ----- No. 2 Mpls. (Jan. 1909 - June 1925) No. 3 Mpls. (July 1925 - June 1976) No. 2 Feed, Mpls. (July 1976 - Dec. 1986) No. 2 Feed, Duluth (Mar. 1987 - Dec. 1990) - - - No. 1 Western Feed, Lethbridge (Aug. 1991 - date)
9
BARLEY Average Price Received by Farmers for All Barley in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
3.55 2.26 1.93 1.70 2.04 1.98 2.09 3.01
3.18 2.27 2.01 2.04 2.70 2.00 2.14 2.74
2.99 2.35 2.07 2.37 2.23 2.41 2.68 2.91
2.78 2.38 2.01 2.03 1.81 2.24 2.64 2.88
2.69 2.44 1.91 1.96 1.97 2.29 2.64 2.77
2.65 2.61 2.05 2.14 2.15 2.30 2.79 2.86
2.67 2.43 2.03 2.25 2.22 2.21 2.91 2.94
2.52 2.42 1.89 2.04 2.00 2.09 2.85 2.70
2.45 2.40 1.90 2.13 2.10 2.17 2.87
2.37 2.13 2.00 2.23 2.07 2.17 2.83
2.29 2.16 1.78 2.09 2.05 2.09 2.87
2.31 2.13 1.82 2.19 2.12 2.24 2.91
2.70 2.33 1.95 2.10 2.12 2.18 2.69 2.85
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Feed Barley in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Average
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
3.22 2.31 1.82 1.55 1.73 1.77 1.83 2.35
2.79 2.04 1.62 1.48 1.71 1.63 1.88 2.23
2.60 2.10 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.54 2.05 2.40
2.34 2.29 1.40 1.64 1.54 1.71 2.23 2.30
2.10 2.05 1.46 1.61 1.71 1.86 2.26 2.25
1.90 1.98 1.47 1.66 1.87 1.79 2.32 2.44
1.96 1.66 1.55 1.64 1.90 1.77 2.14 2.30
1.95 1.58 1.58 1.63 1.80 1.67 2.17 2.20
2.01 1.56 1.60 1.68 1.77 1.69 2.20
2.22 1.51 1.49 1.78 1.76 1.75 2.30
2.33 1.42 1.54 1.68 1.73 1.79 2.22
2.45 NQ 1.62 1.94 1.91 1.89 2.33
2.32 1.86 1.55 1.65 1.74 1.74 2.16 2.31
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistical Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Open Interest of Western Feed Barley Futures in Winnipeg Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
13,803 22,718 15,789 8,231 16,709 19,453 9,771 8,559
12,979 19,290 17,337 10,635 20,500 20,515 10,653 8,203
15,746 15,080 18,039 10,579 21,100 19,163 11,255 8,546
18,022 14,620 14,706 9,713 22,501 19,458 11,113 9,028
19,045 14,385 12,666 8,333 20,299 16,020 11,141 9,631
18,502 12,291 10,847 8,993 17,402 15,778 11,068 10,290
15,504 10,023 9,915 10,348 15,128 16,475 11,271 10,676
14,190 13,641 10,384 11,959 15,095 17,202 13,046 9,580
16,647 12,909 11,420 13,206 15,885 16,926 13,845 8,409
20,143 13,147 11,460 15,014 14,921 13,577 12,172 7,154
21,233 14,473 11,338 15,662 17,192 11,407 9,000 7,524
24,590 13,576 8,622 15,031 19,605 10,480 8,027 5,346
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Volume of Trading of Western Barley Futures in Winnipeg Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
24,789 30,608 23,954 15,463 23,371 26,836 14,268 10,555
14,762 30,298 23,472 17,539 22,598 18,732 16,370 18,933
22,492 25,910 23,904 13,853 21,563 16,962 15,924 13,069
29,326 23,511 23,553 17,179 23,631 24,993 17,663 18,879
25,659 17,228 17,395 8,911 19,816 26,361 21,440 13,900
22,968 18,912 20,273 16,294 24,298 20,465 18,349 15,153
33,908 15,615 21,011 17,936 15,230 20,849 19,860 13,293
24,878 21,993 18,101 15,837 11,981 20,137 23,436 29,799
25,456 23,291 16,097 29,141 23,105 19,735 22,431 19,438
50,745 29,418 21,330 16,662 23,447 21,276 14,471 18,937
33,702 31,629 21,589 26,445 42,529 14,926 17,035 17,768
26,124 16,201 8,315 16,117 14,508 6,302 10,772 10,977
334,809 284,614 238,994 211,377 266,077 237,574 212,019 200,701
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
10
In Contracts
Jan.
Bauxite Bauxite is a naturally occurring, heterogeneous material comprised of one or more aluminum hydroxide minerals plus various mixtures of silica, iron oxide, titanium, alumina-silicates, and other impurities in trace amounts. Bauxite is an important ore of aluminum and forms by the rapid weathering of granite rocks in warm, humid climates. It is easily purified and can be converted directly into either alum or metallic aluminum. It is a soft mineral with hardness varying from 1 to 3, and specific gravity from 2 to 2.55. Bauxite is dull in appearance and may vary in color from white to brown. It usually occurs in aggregates in pea-sized lumps. Bauxite is the only raw material used in the production of alumina on a commercial scale in the United States. Bauxite is classified according to the intended commercial application, such as abrasive, cement, chemical, metallurgical, and refractory. Of all the bauxite mined, about 95 percent is converted to alumina for the production of aluminum metal with some smaller amounts going to nonmetal uses as various forms of specialty alumina. Small amounts are used in non-metallurgical bauxite applications. Quantities of bauxite are also used to produce aluminum chemicals and in the steel industries. Australia, Guinea, and Jamaica are large miners of bauxite. Supply – World production of bauxite in 2002 rose 5.1%
to a record high 144 million metric tons from 137 million metric tons in 2001. The world’s largest producer of bauxite is Australia with 38% of world production in 2002. Other key producers are Guinea (10.9%), Brazil (9.7%), Jamaica (9.1%), and China (8.3%). Chinese production rose sharply by 22% to 12.0 million metric tons in 2002 from 2001, and production has quadrupled in the past 10 years. India’s bauxite production is also rising rapidly and showed an 18% annual gain in 2002 to 9.274 million metric tons, more than triple the amount seen 15 years ago. Demand – US consumption of bauxite in 2002 rose slightly to 9.970 million metric tons from 9.770 million in 2001. The alumina industry took 93% of bauxite production in 2002, or 9.290 million metric tons. The refractory industry took 1.2% of US bauxite supply in 2002 (115,000 metric tons), the abrasive industry took 0.5% (52,000 metric tons), and the chemical industry took the remainder. Trade – The US relies on imports for virtually 100% of its consumption needs. Domestic ore, which is less than 1 percent of the US requirement for bauxite, was mined by one company from surface mines in the states of Alabama and Georgia. US imports of bauxite fell to 7.577 million metric tons in 2002 from 8.542 million metric tons in 2001. US exports of bauxite were negligible at 42,000 metric tons, down from 81,000 metric tons in 2001.
World Production of Bauxite
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Australia
Brazil
China
Greece
Guinea
Guyana2
Hungary
India
Jamai ca 3
Russia3
Sierra Leone
Suriname
World Total
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022
41,320 41,733 42,655 43,063 44,465 44,553 48,416 53,802 53,285 54,024
10,001 8,673 10,214 10,998 11,671 11,961 14,372 14,290 13,178 13,900
3,500 3,700 5,000 6,200 8,000 8,200 8,500 9,000 9,800 12,000
2,205 2,196 2,200 2,452 1,877 1,823 1,883 1,991 2,052 2,492
15,300 13,300 15,800 15,600 16,359 15,570 15,590 15,700 15,700 15,700
2,125 1,732 2,028 2,475 2,467 2,267 2,359 2,471 1,985 2,000
1,561 836 1,015 1,044 743 1,138 935 1,047 1,000 1,000
5,277 4,809 5,240 5,757 6,019 6,102 6,712 7,562 7,864 9,274
11,307 11,564 10,857 11,863 11,987 12,646 11,688 11,127 12,370 13,119
4,260 3,000 3,100 3,300 3,350 3,450 3,750 4,200 4,000 3,800
1,165 735 -------------------------
3,421 3,772 3,530 3,695 3,877 3,931 3,714 3,610 4,512 4,500
110,000 106,000 112,000 117,000 122,000 123,000 129,000 136,000 137,000 144,000
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Dry Bauxite equivalent of ore processed.
Salient Statistics of Bauxite in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Net Import ----------- Dry Equivalent ----------- ------- Stocks, December 31 ------Reliance Average Price ------------------ Consumption by Industry -----------------Imports3 Producers as a % of & ConApparent FOB Mine (for ConConGovernTotal Alumina Abrasive Chemical Refractory sumption) Exports3 sumption sumers Consumption $ per Ton ment Total
100 99 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
15-24 15-24 15-18 15-18 15-18 ----------------
11,917 11,200 10,900 11,000 11,500 12,700 11,700 10,800 9,770 9,970
11,002 10,400 10,100 10,300 10,700 12,000 11,100 10,100 9,010 9,290
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncluding concentrates. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
203 197 133 117 98 135 113 111 61 52
225 192 201 W W W W W W W
429 350 394 380 466 332 251 160 175 115
11,838 11,349 10,582 10,552 11,069 11,393 10,189 8,860 8,542 7,577
90 129 108 132 85 99 149 142 81 42
12,200 11,200 10,900 11,000 11,500 12,700 11,700 10,800 9,770 9,970
1,590 1,560 1,730 1,930 2,260 1,860 1,440 1,300 1,740 1,260
16,938 17,200 16,300 15,700 14,300 11,000 6,800 5,710 2,070 1,770
18,500 18,800 18,100 17,600 16,500 12,800 8,250 7,000 3,810 3,030
W = Withheld to avoid disclosing company proprietary data.
11
Bismuth Bismuth is a rare metallic element with a pinkish tinge. Bismuth has been known since ancient times, but it was confused with lead, tin, and zinc until the middle of the 18th century. Among the elements in the earth’s crust, bismuth is ranked about 73rd in natural abundance. This makes bismuth about as rare as silver. Most industrial bismuth is obtained as a by-product of ore extraction. Bismuth is useful for castings because of the unusual way it expands on solidifying. Some of bismuth’s alloys have unusually low melting points. Bismuth is one of the most difficult of all substances to magnetize. It tends to turn at right angles to a magnetic field. Because of this property, it is used in instruments for measuring the strength of magnetic fields. Bismuth finds a wide variety of uses such as pharmaceutical compounds, ceramic glazes, crystal ware, and chemicals and pigments. Bismuth is found in household pharmaceuticals and is used to treat stomach ulcers. Bismuth is opaque to X rays and can be used in fluoroscopy. Bismuth has also found new use as a nontoxic substitute for lead in various applications such as brass plumbing fixtures, crystal ware, lubricating greases, pigments, and solders. There has been environmental interest in the use of bismuth as a replacement for lead used in shot for waterfowl hunting and in fishing sinkers. Another use has been in galvanizing to improve drainage characteristics of galva-
World Production of Bismuth
In Metric Tons (Mine Output=Metal Content)
-------------------------- Mine Output, Metal Content -------------------------Year
Canada
China
Ja p a n
Mexico
Peru
Total
187 150 196 186 264 202 258 189
740 610 550 240 2,680 1,120 1,250 1,300
177 169 30 24 24 26 28 28
995 1,070 1,642 1,204 548 1,112 1,390 1,200
900 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
3,430 3,600 4,360 3,980 5,490 3,800 4,270 4,070
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
nizing alloys. Zinc-bismuth alloys have the same drainage properties as zinc-lead without being as hazardous. Prices – The dealer price of bismuth in 2002 fell to a 9-year low of $3.14 per pound from $3.74 in 2001. The weak price was due to the weak global economy in 2002, but prices were set to recover in 2003 along with most other basic commodities. Supply – World mine production of bismuth in 2002 fell to 4,070 metric tons from 4,270 metric tons in 2001. The world’s largest producer in 2002 was China with 32% of world production, followed by Mexico (30%), Peru (25%), and Canada (5%). As for refined metal, China had 24% of production, Mexico had 23%, Belgium had 19%, and Peru had 13% in 2002. There is no domestic refinery production of bismuth in the US currently. Demand – US consumption of bismuth in 2002 rose to 2,320 metric tons from 2,200 metric tons in 2001. Of that, 46% went for fusible alloys, 35% to chemicals, 17% to metallurgical additives, and 2% to other alloys and uses. Trade – US imports of bismuth fell to 1,930 metric tons in 2002 from 2,220 metric tons in 2001. Of US imports, 38% came from Belgium, 27% came from Mexico, and 1% came from Peru in 2002. Exports of bismuth and alloys was negligible in 2002 at 131 metric tons, down from 541 metric tons in 2001.
------------------------------------------------- Refined Metal --------------------------------------KazakBelgium China hastan Ja p a n Mexico Peru Total
800 800 800 700 700 700 700 1,000
800 750 760 820 860 770 1,230 1,250
33 50 50 50 55 55 130 130
591 562 550 479 481 518 550 560
924 957 990 1,030 412 1,083 1,390 1,200
581 939 774 832 705 744 640 650
Source U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Bismuth in the United States
In Metric Tons
---------------------------- Bismuth Consumed, By Uses -----------------------------
Year
Metallurgical Additives
Other Alloys & Uses
Fusible Alloys
257 231 252 335 340 346 369 388
27 35 31 32 31 34 45 50
544 401 593 741 823 889 981 1,070
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3,840 4,180 4,070 4,330 3,610 4,220 5,050 5,190
3
Chemicals3
Total Consumption
Consumer Stocks D e c. 3 1
Exports of Metal & Alloys
Belgium
Mexico
Peru
Total
Dealer Price $ P er Pound
1,320 855 655 884 855 861 805 813
2,150 1,520 1,530 1,990 2,050 2,130 2,200 2,320
390 122 213 175 130 118 95 111
261 151 206 245 257 491 541 131
636.0 584.0 691.0 739.0 742.0 832.0 728.0 724.0
444.0 453.0 601.0 807.0 277.0 516.0 605.0 518.0
10.9 19.5 163.0 68.8 6.8 20.4 ---19.5
1,450 1,490 2,170 2,720 2,110 2,410 2,220 1,930
3.85 3.65 3.50 3.60 3.85 3.70 3.74 3.14
I ncludes pharmaceuticals.
Imports from --------------- Metallic Bismuth from ---------------
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Price of Bismuth (99.99% ) in the United States
In Dollars Per Pound
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2000 2001 2002 2003
---------2.90
------3.20 2.90
3.93 4.15 3.20 2.90
------3.10 2.92
------3.05 2.98
3.53 3.73 3.05 2.98
------2.94 2.98
------2.90 2.98
3.38 3.58 2.90 2.98
------2.90 2.98
------2.90 2.98
4.00 3.43 2.90 2.98
3.71 3.72 3.00 2.96
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
12
Broilers Broiler chickens are raised for meat rather than for eggs. The broiler industry was started in the late 1950’s when chickens were selectively bred for meat production. Broiler chickens are housed in massive flocks mainly between 20,000 and 50,000 birds, with some flocks reaching over 100,000 birds. Broiler chicken farmers usually rear five or six batches of chickens per year. After just six or seven weeks, broiler chickens are slaughtered (a chicken’s natural lifespan is around seven years). Chickens marketed as pouissons, or spring chickens, are slaughtered after four weeks. A few are kept longer than seven weeks to be sold as the larger roasting chickens. Prices – The average price received by farmers for broilers (live weight) rose to an average 35.3 cents per pound in 2003. That was slightly below the 10-year average of 36 cents but represented a recovery from 2002 when the average price of 30.4 cents was the lowest level seen in more
than 10 years. Average wholesale broiler prices (ready-tocook) were on track to rise to about 61 cents per pound in 2003, up from the 10-year low of 55.54 cents seen in 2002. Supply – Total production of broilers in 2003 rose slightly by +0.9% to 32.533 billion pounds, up from 32.240 billion in 2002. The number of broilers raised for commercial production rose 2.6% to 8.732 billion in 2003, up from 8.511 billion in 2002. Furthermore, in addition to a larger number of broilers, the average weight per bird rose by 1.6% to 5.20 pounds, up from 5.12 pounds in 2002. Demand – US per capita consumption of broilers in 2003 was unchanged from 2002 at a record 80.5 pounds (ready-to-cook) per person per year. US consumption of chicken has nearly doubled in the past two decades, up from as little as 47.0 pounds in 1980, as consumers have switched to the leaner and healthier meat of chicken versus beef.
Broiler Supply and Prices in the United States ---------------------- Federally Inspected Slaughter ---------------------Certified Liveweight Average RTC Weight Pounds Weight Number (Mil. Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) (Pounds) (Millions)
Year & Quarters
1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 20032 I II III IV
7,825 8,112 8,239 8,387 8,511 8,509 2,039 2,145 2,215 2,114
1
Preliminary. condemnation.
2
4.86 4.99 5.00 5.04 5.12 5.19 5.17 5.20 5.15 5.25
38,016 40,444 38,417 42,337 43,529 44,185 10,537 11,152 11,408 11,102
27,832 29,741 30,397 31,257 32,190 32,666 7,770 8,238 8,454 8,200
Total Production RTC 3 (Mil. Lbs.)
Per Capita Consumption RTC Basis (Mil. Lbs.)
27,863 29,741 30,495 31,266 32,240 32,637 7,770 8,238 8,454 8,175
72.6 77.0 77.4 76.6 80.5 81.4 19.6 20.6 21.3 19.9
------------------ Prices -----------------Geogia Dock4
Farm
---------- Cents per Pound ----------
39.81 36.89 35.20 39.58 30.42 35.33 34.00 33.67 36.33 37.33
59.81 58.75 58.14 62.08 61.65 64.80 61.93 63.35 66.61 67.32
Estimate. 3 Total production equals federal inspected slaughter plus other slaughter minus cut-up & further processing Ready-to-cook basis. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
4
Salient Statistics of Broilers in the United States ------------------------------------- Total Chickens3 Supply and Distribution --------------------------------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
-------- Average -------------------- Production ------------Commercial Storage ----- Production ----- Liveweight Average F e derally Other Stocks Broiler ------ Consumption -----Value of Total January 1 Exports Feed Ratio Number Liveweight Per Bird Total Per Capita4 Price Production Inspected Chickens (Mil. Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) (Pounds) (Cents/Lb.) (Pounds) (Mil. $) ----------------------- In Millions of Pounds ----------------------- (Pounds) (Mil. Lbs.)
7,597 7,764 7,934 8,146 8,263 8,389 8,590
Preliminary.
2
36,479 37,541 38,554 40,830 41,516 42,446 44,050
Estimate.
3
4.80 4.84 4.86 5.01 5.02 5.06 5.13 Ready-to-cook.
38.1 37.7 39.3 37.1 33.6 39.3 30.5 4
13,903 14,159 15,145 15,129 13,953 16,694 13,435
Retail weight basis.
Average Wholesale Broiler1 Prices RTC Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 1
26,124 27,041 27,612 29,468 30,209 30,816 31,583
491 510 525 554 531 614 500
26,615 27,570 28,137 30,022 31,740 31,330 32,083
567 647 614 717 804 807 717
4,685 5,048 5,099 5,312 5,612 6,357 6,530
4.7 6.3 7.2 6.7 7.8 5.5 5.4
21,854 22,541 22,942 24,631 25,132 25,075 25,571
70.40 71.90 72.60 77.00 77.40 76.90 80.80
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
(Ready-to-Cook)
(In Cents Per Pound)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
61.99 54.66 59.33 55.43 56.87 56.86 60.46
59.53 56.40 58.23 53.84 57.47 55.91 60.49
58.41 58.10 56.79 54.48 58.95 55.17 60.02
59.77 58.52 55.08 55.39 58.46 53.47 57.78
58.53 60.08 60.02 55.71 59.40 56.42 59.44
59.05 64.26 60.33 56.01 59.88 58.44 61.56
63.04 68.53 59.46 56.61 60.43 57.47 62.80
63.25 72.13 57.65 55.47 60.90 55.72 63.20
59.86 70.53 57.15 58.35 61.93 55.88 64.08
55.39 68.04 54.87 57.22 60.17 52.97 63.59
54.62 64.13 59.52 58.22 58.89 53.42 64.45
52.25 60.45 58.42 57.23 55.98 54.74 65.71
58.81 62.99 58.07 56.16 59.11 55.54 61.97
12-city composite wholesale price.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
13
Butter Butter is a dairy product produced by churning the fat from milk, usually cow’s milk, until it solidifies. In some parts of the world, butter is also made from the milk of goats, sheep, and even horses. Butter has been in use since 2,000 BC. Today butter is used principally as a food item, but in ancient times it was used more as an ointment, medicine, or illuminating oil. Butter was first churned in skin pouches thrown back and forth or swung over the backs of trotting horses. It takes about 10 quarts of milk to produce 1 pound of butter. The manufacture of butter is the third largest use of milk in the US. California is generally the largest producing state, followed closely by Wisconsin, with Washington as a distant third. Commercially finished butter is comprised of milk fat (80% to 85%), water (12% to 16%), and salt (about 2%). Although the price of butter is highly correlated with the price of milk, it also has its own supply and demand dynamics. The consumption of butter has dropped in recent decades because pure butter has a high level of animal fat and cholesterol that has been linked to obesity and heart disease. Per capita consumption of butter in the US in 2000, the latest reporting year, was 4.6 pounds, little changed from 1980 but sharply lower than 7.5 pounds in 1960 and 17.3 pounds in 1930. The primary substitute for butter is margarine, which is produced from vegetable oil rather than milk fat. US per capita consumption of margarine has risen from 2.6 pounds in 1930 to recent levels near 8.3 pounds, much higher than US butter consumption.
Supply and Distribution of Butter in the United States
Year
------------------------ Supply -----------------------Cold Storage Stocks3 ProTotal Imports duction Supply Jan. 15
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022
1,296 1,264 1,174 1,151 1,082 1,167 1,274 1,237 1,355
244 80 19 14 21 26 25 24 56
2.745 1.537 10.545 24.154 70.369 39.813 32.400 75.000 34.800
1,543 1,348 1,204 1,177 1,243 1,337 1,331 1,336 1,445
Futures on butter are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The CME’s butter futures contract calls for the delivery of 40,000 pounds of Grade AA butter and is priced in cents per pound. Prices – Butter futures traded in a relatively narrow range early in the year, generally between $1.15 to $1.20 per pound. Butter then staged a sharp rally late in the year to post a new 2-year high and closed the year at $1.36, up 14% from the 2002 close of $1.19. Butter rallied late in 2003 and early in 2004 on concerns about mad cow disease and whether that would result in the slaughter of a large number of cows thereby cutting milk production. Butter also benefited from the general rally in commodity prices seen in late 2003 due to the weak dollar and stronger US economic growth. Supply – US production of butter in 2003 fell to 1.253 billion pounds, down from 1.360 billion in 2002. World production of butter in 2002 rose to 6.121 million metric tons, up from 5.737 million metric tons in 2001. India is by far the world’s largest producer of butter with 42.5% of the world’s production in 2002. After India, the world’s largest butter producers are the US with 9.5% of world production, France with 7.4%, New Zealand with 5.6%, and Russia with 4.7%. Demand – US usage of butter in 2003 fell to 1.192 billion pounds from 1.293 billion pounds in 2002. Trade – US imports of butter in 2003 fell to 31.73 million pounds from 34.80 million pounds in 2002, accounting for a meager 2% of US usage.
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------- Distribution -------------------------------------
-------- 93 Score --------
-- Domestic Disappearance -- --- Department of Agriculture --P er Removed Capita Jan. 1 Dec. 31 by USDA Stocks4 Total (Pounds) Exports Stocks4 Programs
AA Wholesale Price
1,255 1,186 1,148 1,115 1,220 1,307 1,329 1,268 1,293
4.8 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.6
203 100 83 46 33 20 7
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimates. 3 I ncludes butter-equivalent. 4 I ncludes butteroil. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
5
229 68 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
214.6 224.6 261.7 335.7 325.6 302.7
216.6 231.5 254.9 269.0 301.8 250.7
236.8 271.9 285.0 261.2 237.5 265.8
276.2 312.7 298.3 304.9 310.3 287.6
944.3 1,040.6 1,097.3 1,186.0 1,180.0 1,109.0
1
Preliminary.
14
204.3 77.8 0.1 38.4 12.6 3.7 8.8
1,463 1,329 1,190 1,156 1,229 1,314 1,307
.9581 -------------------------
.7068 .8188 1.0824 1.1625 1.7685 1.2396 1.1768 1.6630 1.1059
I ncludes stocks held by USDA.
Commercial Disappearance of Creamery Butter in the United States First Quarter
68 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
California Chicago Total Use ----- $ per Pound -----
In Millions of Pounds
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
289.0 299.3 300.8 290.9 313.5 304.2
276.3 316.4 286.9 278.4 263.5 275.0
255.3 318.3 332.3 316.1 317.4 315.7
308.6 374.8 380.6 397.0 393.4 406.5
1,137.0 1,308.8 1,300.6 1,282.4 1,287.8 1,301.4
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
BUTTER World (Total) Butter3 Production Year
Australia
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032
153 147 154 176 180 160 164 150
In Thousands of Metric Tons
France
Germany
India
Ireland
Netherlands
New Zealand
Poland
Russia
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
462 466 463 448 453 450 450 ----
480 442 426 427 426 425 420 ----
1,400 1,470 1,600 1,750 1,950 2,250 2,400 2,500
150 145 145 143 144 131 132 ----
122 134 149 140 126 128 120 ----
309 307 343 316 344 352 370 390
160 178 183 168 169 181 180 185
290 280 270 260 265 270 280 270
163 109 113 108 135 156 125 120
129 139 137 143 132 130 132 ----
533 522 530 579 570 559 615 610
5,136 5,171 5,336 5,513 5,688 6,015 6,296 6,349
1 Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Factory (including creameries and dairies) & farm. U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service,
Production of Creamery Butter in Factories in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
132.4 127.6 117.8 123.3 139.9 127.4 140.1 141.4
114.7 108.6 105.7 111.5 128.2 111.8 124.2 128.4
111.9 105.4 106.7 113.7 121.0 111.4 127.7 126.3
109.3 118.3 107.1 106.4 111.7 109.0 131.6 122.7
100.9 102.7 92.6 104.7 108.9 111.0 125.5 114.7
72.7 82.0 69.9 86.0 89.1 86.8 95.8 83.8
75.2 80.0 63.8 75.8 85.4 84.2 94.4 79.5
73.2 68.8 64.3 66.1 83.7 75.6 88.9 70.1
80.7 79.3 68.2 78.8 89.9 86.7 92.8 73.1
96.6 83.3 88.5 93.0 103.9 109.9 102.6 97.0
95.3 89.1 91.1 90.4 100.4 100.1 103.9 88.0
111.3 106.0 106.3 117.2 111.6 123.0 127.6 114.4
1,174.5 1,151.3 1,081.9 1,166.8 1,273.6 1,236.8 1,355.1 1,239.5
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of Creamery Butter on First of Month in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
18.6 13.7 20.8 25.9 25.1 24.1 55.9 157.8
25.5 23.2 34.2 60.8 82.4 68.4 99.2 202.7
33.7 36.0 44.2 95.0 107.8 86.1 130.1 238.2
48.7 50.3 55.9 108.4 114.0 96.2 145.2 248.6
39.8 86.8 67.4 125.5 126.9 112.3 196.6 266.4
34.0 104.2 72.7 136.6 138.2 138.0 226.8 289.8
29.7 93.7 60.6 120.6 145.8 153.5 243.0 292.0
31.7 85.6 51.0 123.6 136.9 151.1 245.3 283.9
27.3 69.5 41.1 90.7 101.3 118.0 229.5 253.9
21.4 43.9 34.1 71.5 85.0 110.9 209.1 207.2
20.5 26.6 31.2 64.2 58.3 100.8 164.6 170.2
17.6 15.4 28.7 30.2 27.3 57.9 135.6 122.5
Preliminary.
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Average Price of Butter at Chicago Mercantile Exchange1 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
75.4 81.9 109.2 144.4 91.6 122.3 134.5 108.2
66.4 98.4 139.8 133.1 92.9 138.1 124.3 104.1
65.5 106.3 134.1 130.3 99.7 154.9 124.7 109.2
69.0 95.6 136.4 103.9 108.7 174.7 117.1 109.1
87.8 86.1 153.2 111.0 122.2 190.4 105.9 109.2
129.3 105.5 186.7 147.7 128.6 197.4 104.3 111.4
145.3 102.7 203.1 134.7 120.3 192.4 103.0 119.9
145.5 102.5 216.6 141.4 120.3 204.5 97.5 117.1
145.5 101.6 273.1 135.8 119.1 219.7 96.4 117.3
128.6 135.3 242.3 113.8 116.9 151.9 103.2 118.5
74.1 148.8 187.9 109.6 151.7 135.2 104.3 120.6
71.9 120.1 140.8 94.2 150.0 130.2 112.0 129.7
100.4 116.2 177.6 125.0 118.5 167.6 110.6 114.5
1
Data from June 1998 through December 2001 are for Wholesale Price of 92 Score Creamery (Grade A) Butter, Central States; prior to June 1998 are for Grade AA in Chicago. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Cents Per Pound ----- Grade AA, Chicago (Jan. 1929 - May 1998) 92 Score Creamery (Grade A), Central States (June 1998 - Dec. 2001) Chicago Mercantile Exchange (Jan. 2002 - date)
15
Cadmium Cadmium is a soft, bluish-white, metallic element that can easily be shaped and cut with a knife. The atomic symbol is Cd, and the atomic number is 48. Cadmium melts at 321 degrees Celsius and boils at 765 degrees Celsius. Cadmium burns brightly in air when heated, forming the oxide CdO. In 1871, the German chemist Friedrich Stromeyer discovered cadmium in incrustations in zinc furnaces. Rare greenockite is the only mineral bearing cadmium. Cadmium occurs most often in small quantities associated with zinc ores, such as sphalerite. Electrolysis or fractional distillation is used to separate the cadmium and zinc. It is estimated that at least 80% of world cadmium output is as a by-product from zinc refining. The remaining 20% comes from secondary sources and recycling of cadmium products. Cadmium recycling has been practical only from nickel-cadmium batteries and from some alloys and dust from electric-arc furnaces. Cadmium is used primarily for metal plating and coating operations in transportation equipment, machinery, baking enamels, photography, and television phosphors. It is also used in pigments and lasers, and in nickel-cadmium and solar batteries. Prices – Cadmium prices in the past 6 years have been at severely depressed levels, reflecting the decreased demand for the substance. Cadmium prices in 2003 rose 26% to 29 cents per pound from 23 cents in 2002. The 2003 price
World Refinery Production of Cadmium Year
In Metric Tons
Australia
Belgium
Canada
China
Finland
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Kazakhstan
Mexico
United Kingdom
United States3
World Total
838 639 632 585 462 552 378 350
1,710 1,579 1,420 1,318 1,235 1,148 1,236 117
2,349 2,537 2,260 2,090 1,911 2,024 1,429 896
1,450 1,570 1,980 2,130 2,150 2,370 2,510 2,500
539 648 650 520 700 683 604 ----
1,150 1,150 1,145 1,020 1,145 1,130 540 422
308 296 287 328 360 284 312 300
2,652 2,344 2,473 2,337 2,567 2,472 2,486 2,500
794 800 745 1,622 1,246 257 170 600
689 784 1,223 1,218 1,275 1,268 1,241 1,200
549 541 455 440 547 503 485 450
1,270 1,530 2,060 1,240 1,185 1,890 680 700
20,100 18,900 20,300 20,200 20,200 20,100 18,000 15,800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
3
Estimate.
Primary and secondary metal.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Cadmium in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2 0 0 11 20022 1 6
of 29 cents was an improvement from the record low of 14 cents in 1999 but it was still far below the 20-year average price of $1.59 per pound. Supply – World cadmium production in 2002 fell to a 27-year low of 15,800 metric tons. China and Japan were the largest producers of cadmium in 2002, each producing 2,500 metric tons, representing 15.8% of world production. US production of cadmium in 2002 rose +3% to 700 metric tons from the record low of 680 metric tons in 2001. The US production level in 2002 was less than half the level seen just two years earlier. The US in 2002 accounted for just 4.4% of world production. Demand – Consumption of cadmium has been declining fairly steeply in the last few years due to environmental concerns. Of the total apparent consumption, some 75 percent was for batteries. Another 12 percent went into pigments while coatings and plating used 8 percent. Stabilizers for plastics took 4 percent while nonferrous alloys and other uses took 1 percent. Trade – The US in 2002 relied on imports for virtually none of its cadmium usage, down from 38% as recently as 1998. US imports of cadmium have plunged in recent years and in 2002 fell to a negligible 25 metric tons from 107 metric tons in 2001 and 425 metric tons in 2000. US exports of cadmium fell to 194 metric tons in 2002 from 272 metric tons in 2001.
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Consumption
Production (Metal)
Producer Shipments
Cadmium Sulfide Production
1,270 1,530 2,060 1,240 1,190 1,890 680 700
1,280 1,310 1,370 1,570 1,020 1,580 954 776
105 119 113 125 64 42 31 33
E 32 19 38 9 6 3 0
In Metric Tons of Contained Cadmium
Production Other Compounds
Imports of Cadmium Metal3
Exports4
936 720 607 638 604 417 -------
848 843 790 514 294 425 107 25
1,050 201 554 180 20 314 272 194
Apparent Consumption
Industry Stocks D e c. 3 1 5
New York Dealer Price $ per Pound
1,160 2,250 2,510 2,100 1,850 2,010 659 2,250
990 1,140 1,090 729 893 1,200 1,110 63
1.84 1.24 .51 .28 .14 .16 .23 .29
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 For consumption. 4 Cadmium metal, alloys, dross, flue dust. 5 Metallic, Compounds, Distributors. Sticks & Balls in 1 to 5 short ton lots. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Price of Cadmium (99.95% ) in the United States Year
2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
---58.33
30.50 55.00
30.07 55.00
27.50 55.00
27.50 59.29
27.50 67.50
27.59 67.50
29.50 67.50
31.15 67.50
43.15 63.15
56.58 57.50
64.52 57.50
35.96 60.90
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
16
In Dollars Per Pound
Jan.
Canola (Rapeseed) Canola is a genetic variation of rapeseed that was developed by Canadian plant breeders specifically for its nutritional qualities and its low level of saturated fat. The term Canola is a contraction of “Canadian oil.” The history of canola oil begins with the rapeseed plant, a member of the mustard family. The rape plant is grown both as feed for livestock and birdfeed. For 4,000 years, the oil from the rapeseed was used in China and India for cooking and as lamp oil. During World War II, rapeseed oil was used as a marine and industrial lubricant. After the war, the market for rapeseed oil plummeted. Rapeseed growers needed other uses for their crop, and that stimulated the research that led to the development of canola. In 1974, Canadian plant breeders from the University of Manitoba produced canola by genetically altering rapeseed. Each canola plant produces yellow flowers, which then produce pods. The tiny round seeds within each pod are crushed to produce canola oil. Each canola seed contains approximately 40% oil. The rest of the seed is processed into canola meal, which is used as high protein livestock feed. The climate in Canada is especially suitable for canola plant growth. Today, over 13 million acres of Canadian soil are dedicated to canola production. Canola oil is Canada’s leading vegetable oil. Due to strong demand from the US for canola oil, approximately 70% of Canada’s canola oil is exported to the US. Canola oil is used as a salad oil, cooking oil, and for margarine as well as in the manufacture of inks, biodegradable greases, pharmaceuticals, fuel, soap, and cosmetics. Canola futures and options are traded at the Winnipeg Exchange. The futures contract calls for the delivery of 20 metric tons of canola and 5 contracts are together called a “1 board lot.” The contract is priced in Canadian dollars per metric ton. Prices – Canola prices on the Winnipeg nearest-futures chart generally range-traded during 2003 between CD$330 and $390 per metric ton. Canola futures ended 2003 at CD$365, which was below the year’s high of $388.90 that was posted in late October 2003. Canola prices were pushed lower during the year due to a bumper crop, although de-
World Production of Canola (Rapeseed) Year
Austrlia
Canada
China
Czechoslovakia
179 305 309 557 624 856 1,690 2,460 1,905 1,797 841 1,400
3,872 5,480 7,233 6,436 5,062 6,392 7,643 8,798 7,205 4,926 4,178 6,670
7,653 6,940 7,492 9,777 9,200 9,578 8,300 10,132 11,381 11,331 10,552 11,600
375 377 452 662 521 575 680 931 844 973 710 400
1992-3 1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
mand rose to absorb almost all of that higher supply. As the year ended, prices were on the rise as stocks were being drawn down. Supply – World rapeseed production in 2003/4 was forecast by the USDA at 38.00 million metric tons, up sharply by 17% from 32.50 million in 2002/3. China is the world’s largest producer of rapeseed (canola) with 32% of world production (2003/4), followed by the European Union (25%), Canada (18%), and India (15%). China’s production in 2003/ 4 rose sharply by 10% to a forecasted 11.60 million metric tons from 10.55 million in 2002/3. Canada’s production soared by 60% to 6.67 million in 2003/4 from 4.18 million in 2002/3. EU production collectively rose slightly by 1.3% to 9.45 in 2003/4 from 9.33 in 2002/3. US production only accounted for 1.8% of world production and fell slightly by 1.4% to 700,000 metric tons in 2003/4 from 710,000 in 2002/ 3. Ending stocks of rapeseed in 2003/4 were forecast by the USDA at 1.85 million metric tons, down sharply by 32% from 2.71 million in 2002/3. Canola oil is the world’s third largest source of vegetable oil accounting for 13% of world vegetable oils, following soybean oil at 32%, and palm oil at 28%. Canola oil production in 2003/4 rose sharply by 12% to 13.25 million metric tons in 2003/4 from 11.78 million in 2002/3. Demand – Crush demand was strong in 2003/4 with a forecasted 35.29 million metric ton demand for canola for crushing into oil and meal, up by 13% from 31.11 million in 2002/3. The crush demand of 35.29 million accounted for 92% of world production in 2003/4. Consumption of rapeseed oil in 2003/4 rose by 11% to 13.21 million metric tons from 11.85 million in 2002/3. Consumption of rapeseed meal in 2003/4 rose by 12% to 21.09 million metric tons from 18.78 million in 2002/3. Trade – World exports of rapeseed rose by 16% to 5.43 million metric tons in 2003/4, up from 4.69 million. World exports in 2003/4 accounted for 14% of world production. The US is a net importer of rapeseed products. US imports of rapeseed oil in fiscal year 2003 fell to 445,000 metric tons from 503,000 in FY-2002/3. US imports of rapeseed meal in FY-2003 fell to 919,000 from 836,000 in 2002.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
France
Germany
India
Pakistan
Poland
Sweden
United Kingdom
Former USSR
World Total
1,810 1,550 1,800 2,700 2,870 3,496 3,734 4,392 3,481 2,874 3,317 ----
2,617 2,848 2,837 3,127 2,150 2,867 3,388 4,285 3,286 4,160 3,870 ----
4,872 5,390 5,884 6,000 6,942 4,935 4,900 5,110 3,725 4,500 3,600 5,800
243 225 225 255 255 286 292 279 297 231 221 241
758 594 756 1,377 449 595 1,099 1,132 958 1,064 995 750
247 313 214 215 139 132 129 154 112 112 165 ----
1,150 1,136 1,298 1,330 1,410 1,527 1,566 1,737 1,157 1,157 1,468 ----
329 211 244 252 226 221 339 505 522 440 493 ----
25,285 26,735 30,310 34,435 31,531 33,108 35,885 42,525 37,559 35,995 32,453 37,990
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA); The Oil World
17
CANOLA
Volume of Trading of Canola Futures in Winnipeg Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
119,691 75,068 99,542 121,433 100,926 129,758 137,528 196,137 164,945 129,903
103,517 87,113 95,034 133,056 144,309 59,772 182,744 292,226 179,753 152,738
85,125 86,340 76,704 131,473 110,708 132,732 163,038 286,463 166,889 108,991
100,923 67,937 128,169 148,647 140,789 143,282 169,807 247,744 159,981 153,528
111,962 95,447 148,189 117,219 130,551 102,838 168,164 205,798 133,202 120,178
79,307 85,126 103,892 116,117 121,829 134,179 152,358 188,175 139,256 152,979
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
83,903 95,712 94,576 70,904 135,652 87,896 80,867 72,602 107,816 89,457 94,256 113,913 79,071 91,762 163,901 155,531 132,524 174,527 90,909 66,768
July
54,893 94,794 108,490 93,967 121,573 130,505 146,890 143,220 131,034 109,760
87,350 126,210 161,894 150,065 181,002 184,973 208,639 205,016 170,873 217,310
101,727 84,991 90,105 97,984 127,120 157,428 154,727 174,910 105,661 90,950
96,797 107,177 110,453 124,245 181,278 179,798 204,045 165,852 169,477 153,269
1,120,907 1,075,683 1,346,020 1,387,675 1,557,358 1,563,434 1,858,773 2,424,973 1,828,122 1,547,283
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Average Open Interest of Canola Futures in Winnipeg Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
50,335 47,579 42,646 48,681 35,864 57,958 59,057 57,537 57,821 52,818
55,280 43,662 43,808 48,281 46,678 64,014 65,545 73,539 56,443 54,749
54,899 36,530 45,126 50,815 49,161 57,851 65,296 88,111 53,321 55,369
58,012 32,580 47,989 50,025 48,683 57,351 66,253 78,143 56,830 53,480
60,567 38,361 54,228 49,212 56,163 51,808 65,855 77,425 50,924 50,549
55,434 42,961 52,176 43,941 60,285 53,039 59,673 84,315 38,901 49,930
54,733 43,607 49,387 35,496 57,627 49,273 46,813 72,430 48,329 47,479
57,044 42,828 40,619 30,039 51,462 41,819 51,367 70,137 54,286 45,314
57,049 51,067 42,242 25,255 53,919 53,425 59,342 67,275 53,630 44,510
54,375 57,638 52,273 36,674 56,651 67,244 72,618 71,651 50,379 49,008
55,045 46,640 53,121 38,702 51,426 63,780 64,862 65,580 56,896 45,423
49,475 45,444 54,323 42,510 60,663 64,286 65,170 66,884 57,983 48,655
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
18
In Contracts
Jan.
CANOLA World Supply and Distribution of Canola and Products Year
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------- Canola ---------------------------- ------------------------ Canola Meal -----------------------ProEnding ProCon- Ending duction Exports Imports Crush Stocks duction Exports Imports sumption Stocks
31,531 33,108 35,885 42,525 37,559 35,995 32,453 37,990
Preliminary.
2
5,673 6,902 6,836 8,912 7,852 5,844 4,687 5,413
5,967 6,757 6,990 8,988 7,402 5,648 4,511 5,204 3
Estimate.
Forecast.
28,853 31,204 31,952 37,346 35,189 33,201 31,211 35,393
2,047 1,081 2,241 4,116 2,666 2,712 1,842 1,750
17,531 18,838 19,173 22,451 21,171 20,057 18,850 21,449
4,361 4,581 2,052 2,719 2,212 1,883 1,938 2,404
4,023 4,417 2,167 2,652 2,173 1,834 1,927 2,227
17,265 18,742 19,365 22,400 21,151 20,076 18,830 21,295
2,625 3,024 1,844 1,798 1,183 1,186 1,042 1,226
2,547 2,685 1,625 1,522 1,229 1,085 1,096 1,211
10,507 11,030 11,586 13,381 12,949 12,723 11,927 13,293
390 446 488 559 688 541 449 432
In Thousands of Metric Tons
---------------------------------------- Canola Oil ---------------------------------------------
------------------------ Supply -------------------
------------------------- Supply ---------------------------- Disappearance ---------
--------- Disappearance ---------
Stocks June 1
Production
Imports
Total
Crush
Exports
Total3
Stocks June 1
Production
Imports
40 36 19 77 50 39 68 72
219 355 710 621 909 908 706 686
259 355 310 242 217 125 197 290
518 746 1,039 940 1,176 1,072 971 1,048
395 589 698 722 773 757 587 764
79 126 246 136 220 218 284 195
474 715 944 858 993 975 871 959
35 30 52 79 96 51 24 38
155 205 250 281 292 266 246 299
502 504 503 534 545 503 445 600
Preliminary.
2
3
Forecast.
I ncludes planting seed and residual.
Wholesale Price of Canola Oil in Midw est2 Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
10,525 11,425 11,847 13,728 13,032 12,677 11,781 13,291
--------------------------------------------- Canola ---------------------------------------------
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42 1
510 442 365 349 330 262 271 248
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA); The Oil World
Salient Statistics of Canola and Canola Oil in the United States
Year
------------------------- Canola Oil ------------------------ProCon- Ending duction Exports Imports sumption Stocks
Total Domestic
692 739 805 894 933 820 715 937
Exports
Total
133 158 123 129 85 116 73 75
662 687 726 798 882 796 677 912
529 529 603 669 797 680 604 837
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
50.75 90.00 28.00 25.31 17.31 14.81 20.81 24.30
50.75 90.00 29.00 21.44 16.50 15.19 21.31 28.88
50.75 90.00 30.30 20.69 17.25 16.69 27.44 27.63
50.75 90.00 30.58 21.50 18.69 16.69 21.94 27.44
50.75 90.00 31.13 20.38 17.75 18.00 21.95 28.13
50.75 90.00 28.45 20.58 16.45 19.25 23.19 27.13
50.75 90.00 28.44 19.33 15.50 22.50 25.06 26.56
50.75 90.00 26.85 19.75 15.69 21.80 28.45 26.30
50.75 90.00 29.75 19.25 15.60 19.94 29.81 28.44
60.56 82.00 28.20 18.44 15.00 19.00 30.75
90.00 82.00 27.19 18.19 15.31 20.56 34.19
90.00 82.00 26.10 17.95 15.50 21.88 41.19
58.11 88.00 28.67 20.23 16.38 18.86 27.17 27.20
1
Preliminary. 2 Data prior to 1998 are for Refined (Denatured), in Tanks in New York Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price of Canola in Vancouver Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Canadian Dollars Per Tonne
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
424.07 441.96 416.48 402.74 286.09 279.07 329.23 396.78
422.60 441.68 428.88 368.17 277.92 285.05 328.38 380.81
417.55 457.95 434.68 363.24 280.97 302.04 329.39 351.97
443.94 448.09 441.44 362.16 287.34 299.59 316.74 362.89
473.04 446.00 450.56 353.21 284.59 310.00 318.67 344.59
469.28 428.47 443.11 356.53 274.12 320.79 330.21 333.48
470.38 395.58 404.86 317.36 265.32 356.98 369.42 322.64
453.86 400.68 387.05 305.73 262.24 368.33 401.78 319.37
453.53 390.38 389.34 302.93 269.17 351.01 408.43 324.07
444.01 398.81 400.40 302.68 265.32 332.16 413.64 338.93
432.30 419.12 412.17 297.76 267.75 328.99 436.25 343.65
439.79 410.21 417.41 287.62 278.59 334.53 418.74 338.57
445.36 423.24 418.87 335.01 274.95 322.38 366.74 346.48
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Average Wholesale Price of Canola Meal, 36% Pacific Northw est Crop Year
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
In Dollars Per Short Ton
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
------------122.58 142.85 131.50 169.65
------------132.30 142.44 134.70 187.19
------------142.34 129.48 142.17 181.35
------------140.53 135.34 154.10 201.07
------------132.90 137.33 155.80
------------132.01 150.15 147.55
------------140.25 146.60 145.60
------------144.00 141.90 148.50
------------149.30 142.10 146.95
------------154.29 153.40 137.10
------------142.60 149.10 135.50
------------137.27 149.30 149.20
192.02 131.15 112.28 117.07 139.20 143.33 144.06 184.82
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
19
Cassava Cassava is a perennial woody shrub with an edible root. Cassava, which is also called manioc, mandioca, or yucca, grows in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Cassava has been known since the 1500s and originates from Latin America. The cassava’s starchy roots are a major source of dietary energy for more than 500 million people. Cassava is the highest producer of carbohydrates among staple crops, and it ranks fourth in food crops in developing countries. The leaves of the cassava plant are also edible and are relatively rich in protein and vitamins A and B. Cassava is drought-tolerant and needs less soil preparation and weeding than other crops. Because cassava can be stored in the ground for up to 3 years, it also serves as a reserve food when other crops fail. The cassava is propagated by cuttings of the woody stem, thereby resulting in a low multiplication rate compared to crops propagated by true seeds. One problem with cassava is the poisonous cyanides, which need to be destroyed before consumption. The cyanide content differs with each variety of cassava, but higher cyanide is usually correlated to high yields. The cyanide content can be destroyed through heat and various processing methods such as grating, sun drying, and fermenting.
World Cassava Production
1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
China
Ghana
India
Indonesia
Mozambique
Nigeria
Paraguay
Tanzania
Thailand
Uganda
Congo
World Total
25,423 24,584 24,305 19,503 20,864 23,336 22,479 23,108
3,501 3,601 3,651 3,701 3,751 3,801 3,851 3,851
6,612 7,111 7,000 7,227 7,845 8,107 8,966 9,731
5,929 5,443 5,868 6,000 6,700 6,800 6,900 6,900
15,442 17,002 15,134 14,696 16,438 16,089 17,055 16,723
4,178 4,734 5,337 5,639 5,353 5,362 5,400 5,400
31,404 31,418 30,409 32,695 32,697 32,010 32,586 34,476
3,054 2,648 3,155 3,300 3,694 2,719 3,568 4,142
5,969 5,992 5,700 6,128 7,182 7,120 6,884 6,888
17,388 17,388 18,084 15,591 16,507 19,064 18,396 16,870
2,224 2,245 2,291 3,204 4,875 4,966 5,265 5,300
17,500 18,000 16,973 17,060 16,500 15,959 15,436 14,929
165,436 164,711 164,373 162,856 171,918 178,567 183,289 184,853
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
Cassava is the primary source of tapioca. Cassava is also eaten raw or boiled, and is processed into livestock feed, starch and glucose, flour, and pharmaceuticals. One species of cassava has been successfully grown for its rubber. Prices – The prices of tapioca (hard pellets, FOB Rotterdam) rose in the first quarter of 2003 to $94 per metric ton from $90 in 2002 and the recent trough of $82 in 2001. Still, tapioca prices are far below the 10-year average of $118 per metric ton. Supply – World production of cassava in 2000, the latest full reporting year for the series, rose by +2.2% to 172.737 million metric tons from 169.026 million in 1999. The world’s largest producers of cassava in 2000 were Nigeria (with 18.9% of world production), Brazil (13.3%), Thailand (10.7%), and Indonesia (9.5%). Trade – World exports of tapioca in 2002 fell to 3.560 million metric tons from 5.140 million in 2001. Thailand accounted for 86% of world exports in 2002, followed by Vietnam with 9% of world exports and Indonesia with 4%. The world’s two main importers of tapioca in 2002 were China with 49% of world imports and the European Union with 44% of world imports.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Estimate.
Prices of Tapioca, Hard Pellets, F.O.B. Rotterdam
U.S. Dollars Per Tonne
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
164 167 133 96 104 94 83 86 91
170 160 118 100 102 90 80 82 92
180 155 112 98 101 88 77 82 95
178 158 108 104 102 92 78 84 96
174 163 114 106 108 85 80 87
176 154 110 104 104 88 82 91
183 149 100 105 99 88 84 96
176 154 97 106 102 81 84 97
178 146 100 112 100 78 87 95
184 139 102 122 99 74 83 93
182 140 102 124 100 76 84 93
178 133 100 109 97 79 84 89
177 152 108 107 102 84 82 90 94
Source: The Oil World
World Trade in Tapioca
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------ Exports -----------------------Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 1
Estimate.
20
China
Indonesia
Thailand
Viet Nam
Total World Exports
10 11 11 10 10 10 10 ----
481 389 247 221 340 151 177 130
3,297 3,607 4,155 3,199 4,341 3,915 4,494 3,067
1 1 68 87 117 215 409 308
3,860 4,052 4,519 3,555 4,857 4,334 5,140 3,560
2
I ntra-EU trade is excluded.
Source: The Oil World
------------------------------------------- Imports ------------------------------------------Rep. of United Former Ja p a n Korea States USSR China EC-122
362 75 242 250 381 170 1,950 1,760
2,924 3,321 3,413 2,620 3,781 3,765 2,728 1,576
16 22 15 19 18 19 20 14
140 554 585 463 212 292 445 157
-------------------------
-------------------------
Total World Imports
3,590 4,174 4,605 3,536 4,501 4,555 5,288 3,601
Castor Beans Castor bean plants are native to the Ethiopian region of tropical east Africa. The seeds of the castor bean are used to produce castor oil. The average castor bean seed contains 35% to 55% oil. The oil is removed from the bean seeds by either pressing or solvent extraction. Castor oil is used in many products. In the US, the paint and varnish industry is the largest single market for castor oil. It is also used for coating fabrics, insulation, cosmetics, skin emollients, hair oils, inks, nylon plastics, greases, and hydraulic fluids. Ricin is one of the most deadly, naturally occurring poisons known. It received attention when it was used in a subway attack in Japan in 1995 and again recently when it was sent to a Congressional office in an envelope in February 2004. Ricin is found in all parts of the castor bean plant, but the most concentrated amounts are found in the
World Production of Castorseed Beans Crop Year
cake by-product after oil extraction. One non-deadly use for ricin is for medical research where it is being studied for use as a potential treatment for cancer. Supply – World production of castor-seed beans in 2002/ 3 fell to 989,000 metric tons from 1.033 million metric tons in 2001/2. The world’s largest producer of castor-seed beans by far is India with 59% of world production in 2002 at 580,000 metric tons. The second and third largest producers are China with 27% of world production (265,000 metric tons) and Brazil with 7% of world production (72,000 metric tons). Demand – US consumption of castor oil in 2002/3 fell sharply to 20.971 million pounds from 34.099 million pounds in 2001/2. US consumption of castor oil has fallen by more than half in the past three years.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
China
Ecuador
India
Mexico
Paraguay
Pakistan
Philippines
Sudan
Tanzania
Thailand
Former U.S.S.R.
World Total
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22 2002-33
41 97 17 33 116 100 72
222 180 230 250 300 260 265
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
770 829 840 910 867 600 580
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
15 16 19 8 11 13 12
5 5 6 3 1 2 2
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 3 3 3 3 3 3
15 11 7 7 9 9 9
3 2 2 2 2 2 2
1,116 1,189 1,168 1,261 1,353 1,033 989
1
2
Preliminary.
3
Estimate.
Forecast.
Sources: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S.Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA); The Oil World
Castor Oil Consumption2 in the United States Year
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
3,276 2,348 4,281 2,694 4,127 3,281 2,072
4,353 3,579 3,917 4,601 2,346 1,887 1,836
4,367 3,740 4,682 2,386 1,650 1,528 1,779
4,409 3,323 3,819 3,975 3,012 1,641
3,035 4,197 4,328 2,896 3,703 1,642
4,389 5,004 5,346 3,209 3,129 1,629
4,218 5,218 4,135 3,159 3,062 1,123
3,645 4,639 3,341 3,840 3,096 1,315
4,651 4,396 4,268 3,112 1,243 1,518
4,350 4,471 3,884 3,050 2,992 1,839
3,489 4,465 4,257 4,686 2,872 1,449
4,210 4,494 4,573 2,257 2,867 2,119
48,392 49,874 50,831 39,865 34,099 20,971 22,748
2
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
I n inedible products (Resins, Plastics, etc.).
Castor Oil Stocks in the United States, on First of Month Year
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
In Thousands of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
25,098 40,018 44,427 32,585 53,083 41,322 26,463
24,188 46,809 34,180 35,858 45,933 37,282 17,753
25,425 36,881 31,191 30,058 23,973 33,195 16,630
17,543 35,668 44,315 24,728 38,459 32,983 18,582
12,736 31,961 36,632 32,566 31,058 25,926
7,138 22,252 26,885 35,186 36,743 20,551
2,804 13,771 25,486 24,808 39,591 22,460
18,897 11,950 27,605 51,808 39,528 15,337
15,386 5,568 39,038 57,910 43,227 23,212
24,682 13,952 38,118 48,415 50,814 24,138
16,586 34,956 42,934 40,279 49,283 32,110
29,862 25,944 31,015 59,461 53,075 27,827
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Wholesale Price of Castor Oil No. 1, Braz ilian Tanks in New York Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
41.50 41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 41.50 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 48.00 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 48.00 48.00 47.00 48.00 47.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.00
41.50 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 48.00 48.00 48.00 47.50 47.00
41.50 45.29 48.00 47.42 47.92 47.25 47.00
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
21
Cattle and Calves The cattle and beef industry begins with the cow-calf operation, which breeds the new calves. Most ranchers breed their herds of cows in summer, thus producing the new crop of calves in spring (the gestation period is about nine months). This allows the calves to be born during the milder weather of spring thus having ample forage available through the summer and early autumn. The calves are weaned from the mother after 6-8 months and most are then moved into the “stocker” operation. The calves usually spend the next 6-10 months in the stocker operation, growing to near full-sized by foraging for summer grass or winter wheat. When the cattle reach 600-800 pounds, they are typically sent to a feedlot and become “feeder cattle”. In the feedlot, the cattle are fed a special food mix to encourage rapid weight gain. The mix includes grain (corn, milo, or wheat), a protein supplement (soybean, cottonseed, or linseed meal), and roughage (alfalfa, silage, prairie hay, or an agricultural by-product such as sugar beet pulp). The animal is considered “finished” when it reaches full weight and is ready for slaughter, typically at around 1,200 pounds, which produces a dressed carcass of around 745 pounds. After reaching full weight, the cattle are sold for slaughter to a meat packing plant. The beef industry as a whole is estimated at $175 billion. Futures on live cattle and feeder cattle are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Prices – Cattle prices rallied sharply through most of 2003, but then plunged in late December after a cow from a Washington state dairy farm was found to have mad cow disease. On the nearest futures chart, live cattle prices started 2003 at around 80 cents per pound, traded sideways in a choppy range between about 71-82 cents through July, and then rallied very sharply to an all-time record high of 104.25 cents/pound in November. Prices then plunged in late December by about 20% on the mad cow scare, finally closing the year mildly lower near 74 cents. Cattle prices rallied in the July-December period on a combination of events including (1) the fact that mad cow disease was found in a cow in Alberta, Canada in May, thus leading to increased demand for US cattle exports after most nations banned Canadian beef, (2) drought and poor grain-growing conditions in some parts of the US which
World Cattle and Buffalo Numbers as of January 1 Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 20042 1
Argentina
54,207 53,569 51,696 49,238 49,437 49,832 50,167 50,369 50,869 51,119
Preliminary.
22
2
Australia
Brazil
China
25,736 149,315 26,500 149,228 26,780 146,110 26,710 144,670 26,688 143,893 27,588 146,272 27,720 150,382 27,870 156,314 26,900 161,463 26,500 165,491
123,317 104,000 110,318 121,757 124,354 126,983 128,663 128,242 130,848 133,023
Forecast.
Colombi a
17,556 18,478 19,038 19,507 20,621 21,700 22,676 23,757
reduced cattle weights and herd sizes, (3) higher demand for choice cuts of beef with the increasing popularity of the high-protein Atkins and South Beach diets, and (4) low inventories as ranchers rushed their cattle to market to take advantage of high prices. But when mad cow disease hit the US on December 23, cattle prices gave back all their gains of the year, and then some. As of the end of 2003, 43 nations had banned the import of US beef. However, US consumer demand for beef did not show much of a dent from the mad cow scare as government officials insisted there was no risk from eating US beef. As 2003 ended, US officials in January were scrambling to determine what type of inspection and rules would assure US consumers of beef ’s safety and convince foreign countries to lift their ban on US beef. Supply – The US is the world’s largest producer of beef and veal with an estimated 12.226 million metric tons of production, accounting for about 25% of world production, which totaled 49.789 million metric tons in 2003 (USDA). The other key producers in 2003 were Brazil (7.530 million metric tons), European Union (7.360 million metric tons), and China (6.020 million metric tons). Demand – The US is by far the largest consumer of beef at 12.422 million metric tons in 2003, down slightly from 12.738 million in 2002. The USDA is forecasting US consumption to fall to 11.962 million metric tons in 2004 due in part to the mad cow disease scare. The other key consumers of beef are the European Union (7.598 million metric tons in 2003), Brazil (6.460 million metric tons), and China (6.007 million tons). Trade – Despite the fact that the US is the world’s largest producer of beef, the US is a net importer of beef. The beef the US exports is typically grain-fed, high-quality choice cut meat, whereas imports are typically lower-quality grass-fed beef that is destined for processing into items such as ground beef. The key countries to which the US exports its beef are Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada. The key countries from which the US imports beef are Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Argentina, and Brazil. US beef exports in 2003 were approximately 1.2 million tons (USDA), accounting for about 10% of production.
In Thousands of Head
France
Germany
20,524 20,662 20,557 20,154 20,097 20,197 20,518
15,962 15,890 15,760 15,227 14,942 14,657 14,557
India
Mexico
Russia
Ukraine
293,922 296,462 299,802 303,030 306,967 312,572 313,774 317,000 323,000 327,250
30,191 28,140 26,822 25,628 24,859 23,715 22,551 21,296 20,519 19,524
43,296 39,700 35,800 31,500 28,600 27,000 25,500 24,510 23,500 22,345
19,624 17,558 15,313 12,579 11,722 10,627 9,424 9,433 9,108 8,700
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Total United States (Mil. Head)
102,785 103,548 101,656 99,744 99,115 98,198 97,277 96,704 96,106 95,133
1,073 1,048 1,043 1,043 1,041 1,045 1,040 1,047 1,014 1,019
CATTLE AND CALVES Cattle Supply and Distribution in the United States
Year
Imports
Calves Born
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032
100,974 102,755 103,548 101,656 99,744 99,115 98,198 97,277 96,704 96,106
2,083 2,786 1,965 2,046 2,034 1,945 2,187 2,437 2,503 1,730
40,105 40,264 39,823 38,961 38,812 38,796 38,631 38,280 38,193 38,000
1
Preliminary.
2
In Thousands of Head
------------ Livestock Slaughter - Cattle and Calves ------------
Cattle & Calves on Farms January 1
Estimate.
3
---------------- Commercial ---------------Total Federally All Supply Inspected Other3 Commercial
143,799 145,805 145,336 142,663 140,590 139,856 139,016 137,994 137,400 135,836
Wholesale and retail.
34,719 36,272 37,435 37,101 36,209 36,737 36,720 35,752 36,140 35,840
745 798 917 792 714 695 658 625 641 616
35,464 37,069 38,351 37,893 36,923 37,432 37,378 36,377 36,780 36,455
Farm
227 225 224 218 215 210 210 200 190
Total Deaths Slaughter on Farms
35,691 37,294 38,575 38,111 37,138 37,642 37,588 36,577 36,970
Exports
4,254 4,382 4,572 4,676 4,210 4,114 4,097 4,211
231 95 174 282 285 329 481 678 243 100
Total D i sa p pearance
40,176 41,771 43,321 43,069 41,633 42,085 42,166 41,466
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Beef Supply and Utiliz ation in the United States
Year/ Quarter
Total - Per Capita Disappearance --------- Production ---------Beginning Total Ending Carcass Retail D i sa p Stocks Commercial Total Imports Supply Exports Stocks Weight Weight pearance ------------------------------------------------------------------- Million Pounds ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------- Pounds --------------
1999
296 296 309 293 294 314 314 367 380 406
I II III IV 2000 I II III IV 2001 I II III IV 2 0 0 21 I II III IV 20032 I II III IV 1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
26,386 6,399 6,627 6,838 6,522 26,777 6,653 6,699 6,914 6,511 26,107 6,182 6,502 6,723 6,700 27,090 6,377 6,833 7,097 6,783 26,772 6,287 6,907 7,078 6,500
27,579 6,695 6,936 7,131 6,816 28,244 6,967 7,066 7,294 6,917 26,107 6,182 6,502 6,723 6,700 27,090 6,377 6,833 7,097 6,783 26,772 6,287 6,907 7,078 6,500
2,874 628 812 742 692 3,031 720 820 775 700 3,164 785 839 848 689 3,218 737 934 839 708 2,860 810 741 619 690
2000 I II III IV 2001 I II III IV 1
Preliminary.
2,329 564 557 593 615 2,468 540 565 625 620 2,269 569 509 583 610 2,447 572 601 662 612 2,604 585 678 681 660
302 309 293 294 302 402 369 374 378 412
69.1 16.7 17.7 17.2 15.8 69.5 17.2 17.5 18.0 16.7 66.2 16.1 16.8 17.0 16.3 67.6 16.2 17.5 17.3 16.6 65.6 16.2 16.9 16.8 15.7
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
United States Cattle on Feed in 13 States Year/ Quarter
30,453 7,323 7,748 7,873 7,508 31,259 7,687 7,886 8,069 7,617 29,268 6,967 7,341 7,571 7,389 30,308 7,114 7,767 7,936 7,491 29,632 7,097 7,648 7,697 7,190
In Thousands of Head
Number on F eed3
Placed on F eed
Marketings
Other Disappearance
Year/ Quarter
Number on F eed3
Placed on F eed
Marketings
Other Disappearance
11,475 11,475 11,182 10,389 11,016 11,798 11,798 11,523 11,011 11,125
25,348 6,107 5,656 7,043 6,542 24,092 5,685 5,888 6,331 6,188
24,100 6,150 6,187 6,269 5,494 23,401 5,703 6,133 6,058 5,507
925 250 262 147 266 924 257 267 159 241
20021 I II III IV 20032 I II III IV
11,565 11,565 11,577 10,487 10,416 10,593 10,593 10,703 9,923 10,213
23,513 5,942 5,364 6,246 5,961 24,944 5,790 5,849 6,850 6,455
23,639 5,709 6,243 6,176 5,511 23,507 5,558 6,440 6,377 5,132
846 221 211 141 273 868 208 189 183 288
2
Estimate.
3
Beginning of period.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
23
CATTLE AND CALVES
Cents Per Pound ----- All Grades, Chicago (Jan. 1909 - Dec. 1947) Good, Chicago (Jan. 1948 - Dec. 1964) Choice, Chicago (Jan. 1965 - July 1971) Choice, Average, Omaha (Aug. 1971 - Aug. 1987) Average, Texas-Oklahoma (Sept. 1987 - date)
United States Cattle on Feed, 1000+ Capacity Feedlots2, on First of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
8,256 8,031 8,667 8,943 9,455 9,021 9,752 11,798 11,565 10,593
8,139 8,119 8,304 8,813 9,180 8,917 9,885 11,941 11,572 10,660
7,981 8,227 8,152 8,769 8,835 8,878 9,695 11,695 11,518 10,526
7,960 8,328 8,286 8,904 8,607 8,899 9,593 11,523 11,577 10,703
7,772 8,233 7,758 8,484 8,295 8,583 9,391 11,170 10,951 10,530
7,511 8,182 7,253 8,231 8,289 8,547 9,411 11,245 10,970 10,534
6,910 7,734 6,578 7,679 7,825 8,183 8,959 11,011 10,487 9,923
6,841 7,391 6,337 7,536 7,706 7,889 8,812 10,891 10,089 9,590
6,949 7,189 6,612 7,850 7,750 8,185 8,972 10,855 10,129 9,834
7,295 7,722 7,486 8,558 8,376 8,793 9,502 11,125 10,416 10,213
7,988 8,420 8,534 9,390 9,190 9,789 10,192 11,863 10,742 11,038
8,198 8,685 9,003 9,718 9,404 10,020 10,213 11,891 10,898 11,330
Preliminary.
2
7 States through 2000.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
United States Cattle Placed on Feed, 1000+ Capacity Feedlots2 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousands of Head
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,416 1,631 1,312 1,663 1,492 1,681 1,931 2,263 2,179 2,101
1,256 1,532 1,441 1,552 1,290 1,563 1,606 1,580 1,810 1,652
1,518 1,681 1,666 1,694 1,421 1,741 1,736 1,842 1,953 2,037
1,310 1,403 1,150 1,296 1,358 1,443 1,470 1,551 1,453 1,875
1,359 1,673 1,242 1,612 1,740 1,733 1,998 2,372 2,267 2,302
1,113 1,356 1,068 1,224 1,314 1,515 1,413 1,965 1,644 1,672
1,520 1,404 1,483 1,751 1,677 1,565 1,674 1,986 1,840 1,997
1,761 1,653 1,965 2,111 1,773 2,085 2,091 2,204 2,218 2,379
1,915 2,173 2,267 2,278 2,254 2,345 2,286 2,141 2,188 2,474
2,244 2,278 2,536 2,454 2,396 2,629 2,387 2,702 2,389 2,781
1,642 1,804 1,953 1,826 1,732 1,823 1,678 1,908 1,977 1,926
1,345 1,446 1,423 1,304 1,250 1,408 1,440 1,578 1,595 1,748
18,399 20,034 19,506 20,765 19,697 21,531 21,710 24,092 23,513 24,944
Preliminary.
24
In Thousands of Head
2
7 States through 2000.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
CATTLE AND CALVES
United States Cattle Marketings, 1000+ Capacity Feedlots2 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,481 1,484 1,626 1,728 1,689 1,738 1,747 2,042 2,083 1,959
1,357 1,372 1,541 1,554 1,579 1,560 1,749 1,745 1,801 1,715
1,467 1,513 1,476 1,497 1,580 1,668 1,764 1,916 1,825 1,798
1,430 1,437 1,613 1,648 1,609 1,681 1,601 1,815 1,996 1,985
1,542 1,667 1,747 1,785 1,681 1,696 1,863 2,196 2,171 2,233
1,632 1,754 1,696 1,732 1,727 1,835 1,828 2,122 2,076 2,222
1,550 1,698 1,678 1,852 1,755 1,816 1,784 2,047 2,193 2,270
1,602 1,815 1,653 1,755 1,687 1,747 1,895 2,186 2,135 2,075
1,525 1,594 1,342 1,528 1,577 1,682 1,708 1,825 1,848 2,032
1,504 1,529 1,431 1,545 1,537 1,570 1,647 1,896 1,979 1,855
1,370 1,478 1,418 1,429 1,455 1,530 1,568 1,800 1,731 1,537
1,432 1,412 1,415 1,499 1,564 1,601 1,500 1,811 1,801 1,740
17,892 18,753 18,636 19,552 19,440 20,124 20,654 23,401 23,639 23,421
Preliminary.
2
7 States through 2000.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Quarterly Trade of Live Cattle in the United States
1
In Head
---------------------------------------- Imports ---------------------------------------First Second Third Fourth Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Annual
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 0 0 31
In Thousands of Head
569,466 868,694 605,648 494,637 538,018 549,847 580,174 700,239 785,559 630,303
Preliminary.
540,845 804,686 467,059 500,052 503,547 424,182 537,009 612,645 398,072 408,833
386,596 488,515 391,633 423,838 373,451 313,211 346,087 444,637 474,128 142,780
585,597 624,350 501,108 627,825 618,993 657,836 724,016 679,194 845,214 548,112
2,082,504 2,786,245 1,965,448 2,046,352 2,034,009 1,945,076 2,187,286 2,436,715 2,502,973 1,730,028
---------------------------------------- Exports ---------------------------------------First Second Third Fourth Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Annual
51,803 26,597 33,906 63,217 69,824 51,830 117,889 111,549 73,401 38,246
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
43,115 18,441 42,796 58,153 63,459 59,195 67,895 75,152 62,140 34,145
62,729 19,794 42,757 81,095 53,145 47,049 72,028 297,069 49,930 10,953
73,144 29,716 54,848 79,879 98,781 171,245 223,430 194,683 57,472 16,571
230,791 94,548 174,307 282,344 285,209 329,319 481,242 678,453 242,943 99,915
25
CATTLE AND CALVES
Cents Per Pound ----- Oklahoma City (Jan. 1971 - date)
Average Slaughter Steer Price, Choice 2-4, Texas, 1100-1300 Lb. Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
65.07 64.57 61.46 69.07 78.79 64.00 78.24
65.35 60.77 63.17 68.88 79.40 71.24 80.39
67.44 64.52 64.75 71.74 79.44 71.97 77.34
67.66 65.00 65.34 73.13 76.50 67.63 78.98
67.36 64.52 65.00 71.28 74.93 65.49 78.90
63.53 63.85 66.15 69.41 72.64 63.85 76.49
63.80 60.28 64.51 67.22 70.71 63.57 75.61
65.19 60.00 65.29 65.02 69.07 63.41 79.77
66.04 57.93 66.05 65.43 68.75 65.63 87.37
66.93 61.54 69.63 68.51 66.30 65.64 97.63
67.66 62.23 70.28 72.19 63.60 70.21 100.31
65.91 59.97 69.01 76.41 63.62 73.11 91.11
66.00 62.10 65.89 69.86 71.98 67.15 83.51
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price of Steers (Feeder) in Oklahoma City Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
71.52 85.58 79.49 96.49 93.08 92.43 87.76
76.77 86.53 80.92 97.21 86.63 93.66 88.84
79.66 87.87 83.21 101.16 94.17 94.06 91.31
81.60 89.46 84.44 99.01 105.06 91.76 92.94
85.43 86.84 81.80 95.88 99.71 90.78 93.58
87.04 79.54 84.37 97.01 102.16 85.68 96.04
91.67 74.13 86.80 102.11 100.39 83.29 99.28
88.69 72.72 83.84 99.05 96.74 85.19 99.15
87.23 71.13 85.24 93.41 98.31 84.71 102.68
85.66 71.85 84.75 90.84 91.06 84.23 102.63
84.37 74.24 89.13 96.19 90.83 85.69 106.87
85.25 75.71 95.92 97.40 94.51 89.43 104.66
83.74 79.63 84.99 97.15 96.05 88.41 97.15
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Federally Inspected Slaughter of Cattle in the United States Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,169 2,977 2,904 2,878 2,947 2,999 2,950
2,726 2,691 2,665 2,883 2,533 2,564 2,519
2,795 2,838 2,990 3,078 2,867 2,688 2,725
2,998 2,872 2,916 2,735 2,667 2,899 2,918
3,125 2,906 2,947 3,128 3,152 3,098 3,201
3,003 3,050 3,154 3,191 3,075 3,017 3,205
3,127 2,987 3,037 2,918 2,898 3,141 3,240
3,050 2,987 3,099 3,211 3,193 3,163 3,088
2,909 2,938 3,045 2,984 2,758 2,816 3,074
3,156 2,991 3,033 3,082 3,103 3,205 2,946
2,698 2,717 2,882 2,879 2,854 2,812 2,380
2,811 2,834 2,814 2,665 2,726 2,719 2,618
35,567 34,787 35,486 35,631 34,771 35,120 34,863
Preliminary.
26
In Thousands of Head
Jan.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
CATTLE AND CALVES
Average Open Interest of Live Cattle Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
87,923 80,306 72,870 97,014 105,559 115,254 128,918 132,298 93,589 111,874
87,578 78,793 83,064 103,437 102,036 115,283 123,980 132,866 91,566 105,882
83,949 76,821 91,348 108,157 101,264 115,410 123,925 131,312 98,176 98,943
70,287 64,763 97,315 98,354 88,257 104,482 122,596 123,075 98,343 96,875
72,851 61,460 97,911 99,640 88,167 103,290 117,834 112,180 98,846 107,193
75,470 56,783 96,320 96,279 87,493 101,078 106,196 114,970 91,129 111,397
76,663 58,077 96,547 99,042 86,776 96,843 116,266 116,162 93,541 113,324
72,988 55,511 93,557 98,590 86,874 101,858 120,526 105,252 92,966 115,417
73,391 58,319 92,804 94,137 95,013 121,305 123,945 114,214 109,651 130,836
67,924 62,222 88,467 93,579 102,636 123,466 123,517 109,677 111,338 124,525
74,152 69,495 88,062 100,368 108,263 126,040 131,773 108,574 121,671 113,224
68,600 69,065 87,305 102,741 106,156 120,204 132,239 95,182 116,588 106,522
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Live Cattle Futures Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
280,820 289,710 312,018 361,620 355,728 298,814 347,290 511,050 331,026 378,862
291,834 259,210 275,399 352,173 400,210 342,572 323,524 357,474 275,699 343,931
262,399 391,721 333,200 312,113 327,169 338,076 356,258 385,581 387,115 334,007
264,242 287,194 457,536 331,948 400,584 320,457 236,494 302,829 448,508 306,713
372,913 285,686 385,875 285,885 296,651 296,512 302,001 348,294 304,900 391,477
363,935 290,224 303,091 303,369 321,370 342,854 244,755 289,093 247,940 311,239
318,198 245,250 319,815 387,526 334,424 287,557 248,377 318,564 286,248 449,966
317,127 266,793 299,498 324,943 369,604 266,544 293,450 324,614 288,525 319,677
270,048 233,402 278,083 316,822 370,282 371,735 277,913 340,969 314,927 473,218
308,879 220,130 339,419 374,632 373,207 345,269 293,972 403,101 352,487 469,405
275,875 246,655 312,577 238,003 318,152 375,960 397,879 403,009 315,658 324,732
254,626 241,130 309,681 330,608 349,125 253,198 359,599 294,695 298,703 332,862
3,580,896 3,257,105 3,926,192 3,919,642 4,216,506 3,839,548 3,681,512 4,279,273 3,851,736 4,436,089
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
27
CATTLE AND CALVES Beef Steer-Corn Price Ratio in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
20.3 24.2 25.8 30.2 37.5 40.1 36.1 33.4
18.1 24.6 24.8 31.0 35.9 40.2 38.1 33.4
17.2 24.3 25.2 31.8 36.2 41.1 38.2 32.9
15.1 24.3 27.5 32.4 37.0 42.1 37.0 33.7
13.9 25.4 28.3 32.8 34.7 42.5 35.3 33.4
14.2 25.4 28.3 33.9 37.4 43.6 34.0 33.6
14.0 27.0 27.9 37.5 42.9 40.1 31.2 36.3
15.0 26.6 31.6 37.8 44.7 38.7 28.3 38.8
19.1 26.6 32.2 38.3 42.6 37.7 27.4 40.6
23.6 26.5 32.1 41.5 40.5 38.1 29.3 46.1
25.8 27.1 32.3 41.7 39.7 36.6 31.5 45.5
24.9 26.5 30.0 38.9 39.0 34.6 32.3 41.3
18.4 25.7 28.8 35.7 39.0 39.6 33.2 37.4
1 Bushels of corn equal in value to 100 pounds of steers and heifers. U.S. Department of Agriculture
2
Source: Economic Research Service,
Preliminary.
Farm Value, Income and Wholesale Prices of Cattle and Calves in the United States ----- January 1 ----Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
Per Head Dollars
Total Million $
503 525 603 594 683 725 747
52,056 53,383 60,193 58,834 67,099 70,495 72,284
Gross Income From C & C2 Million $
31,251 36,322 33,720 36,861 41,078 40,803
F eeder Cows, Cows, Wholesale Prices, Central U.S. Heifers at Boning Com------- Steers3 ------- ------- Heifers ------- Oklahoma Utility mercial Choice Select Cow6, Choice Select Select Choice City5 Sioux Falls6 Sioux Falls 700-850 lb. 700-850 lb. Canner7 ------------------------------------------------------------ Dollars per 100 Pounds ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ At Ohama3 -------------------
74.50 65.92 60.07 65.64 69.52 67.68 66.39
61.83 63.85 56.17
61.22 63.36 55.17
64.18 65.66 59.23 65.68 69.55 67.81 67.39
57.21 72.04 67.89 71.90 82.23 84.19 76.70
30.45 34.27 36.19 38.40 41.71 44.39 40.47
33.70 36.14 38.93 40.61 44.45 46.65 39.63
102.01 102.56 98.42 110.91 117.45 122.17 113.59
95.70 95.92 92.20 103.07 108.83 114.42 107.66
1 Preliminary. 2 Excludes interfarm sales & Gov't. payments. Cash receipts from farm marketings + value of farm home consumption. 4 5 6 1,000 to 1,200 lb. 1992 to date are 700 to 750 lb., 1987 thru 1991 are 600 to 700 lb. All weights. 7 & Cutter. 1,100 lb. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Beef Cattle in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
59.10 61.40 62.50 59.00 67.80 74.80 67.10 73.20
57.90 61.90 60.40 60.60 67.60 74.70 70.00 74.00
56.80 64.80 61.30 62.40 69.80 76.00 70.60 72.70
54.90 64.80 63.00 62.70 71.30 75.40 67.30 74.60
54.70 65.10 63.00 62.10 69.40 73.60 65.10 75.50
56.40 62.30 61.80 63.70 68.50 73.60 64.00 74.90
59.10 62.80 58.40 62.60 67.50 71.80 63.70 75.80
61.30 63.90 57.40 63.50 65.50 70.60 64.40 79.90
63.80 63.60 56.10 63.80 65.30 69.00 64.50 85.10
63.30 63.30 58.00 66.20 66.70 66.50 64.60 92.00
63.40 63.30 58.10 66.20 69.10 64.00 67.30 93.70
61.00 62.90 56.80 66.60 71.90 64.80 70.40 90.50
59.30 63.30 59.70 63.28 68.37 71.23 66.58 80.16
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Calves in the United States Year
1
1,000 to
Jan.
Preliminary.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
3
58.16 64.30 61.49 66.51 72.57 55.32
In Dollars Per 100 Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
61.80 68.10 86.60 83.20 103.00 108.00 102.00 96.80
60.20 74.90 88.70 86.90 105.00 109.00 105.00 97.30
59.40 80.00 89.80 87.30 109.00 112.00 105.00 97.00
55.10 82.20 90.80 88.20 111.00 112.00 101.00 99.10
54.40 84.30 88.90 87.60 107.00 111.00 99.50 100.00
55.10 85.40 81.70 89.00 104.00 110.00 96.50 107.00
56.80 86.90 76.60 89.20 106.00 108.00 92.40 103.00
59.30 88.00 76.90 89.60 106.00 106.00 94.90 107.00
61.00 86.90 74.10 90.90 103.00 107.00 92.40 109.00
60.10 84.30 75.70 91.90 102.00 99.70 92.00 113.00
61.20 82.90 77.50 93.00 106.00 96.70 91.90 112.00
61.80 83.30 80.20 98.60 106.00 101.00 95.30 112.00
58.90 82.30 82.30 89.62 105.67 106.70 97.33 104.43
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Federally Inspected Slaughter of Calves and Vealers in the United States
In Thousands of Head
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
140 143 125 103 91 89 86 92
140 122 111 98 92 77 71 81
141 128 125 115 97 82 76 83
128 126 107 95 75 72 80 77
133 114 99 87 86 77 76 74
131 115 115 102 91 75 74 72
156 131 131 109 92 81 94 83
153 123 122 115 98 92 94 78
146 133 132 117 91 77 87 80
159 137 121 102 95 91 98 85
139 121 109 100 91 85 88 76
149 142 127 110 90 82 96 95
1,715 1,534 1,422 1,252 1,088 981 1,019 976
1
Preliminary.
28
Source: Crop Reporting Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (CRB-USDA)
Cement Cements are made in a wide variety of compositions and are used in many different ways The best-known cement is Portland cement, which is bound with sand and gravel to create concrete. Concrete is used to unite the surfaces of various materials and to coat surfaces to protect them from various chemicals. Portland cement is almost universally used for structural concrete. It is manufactured from lime-bearing materials, usually limestone, together with clays, blast-furnace slag containing alumina and silica or shale in a combination of approximately 60 percent lime, 19 percent silica, 8 percent alumina, 5 percent iron, 5 percent magnesia, and 3 percent sulfur trioxide. To slow the hardening process, gypsum is often added. In 1924, the name “Portland cement” was coined by Joseph Aspdin, a British cement maker, because of the resemblance between concrete made from his cement and Portland stone. The United States did not start producing Portland cement in any great quantity until the 20th century. Hydraulic cements are those that set and harden in water. Clinker cement is an intermediate product in cement manufacture. The production and consumption of cement is directly related to the level of activity in the construction industry.
World Production of Hydraulic Cement Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Brazil
China
France
28,256 34,597 38,096 39,942 40,270 39,208 38,927 39,500
475,910 491,190 511,730 536,000 573,000 597,000 661,040 704,720
19,692 19,514 19,780 19,500 20,219 20,137 19,839 20,000
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Prices – The average value (F.O.B. mill) of Portland cement in 2002 was $76.00 per ton, down from $76.50 in 2001. That was well above the 10-year average price of $71.50. Supply – World production of hydraulic cement in 2002, the latest reporting year, reached a record high of 1.80 billion metric tons. The world’s largest hydraulic cement producer is China with 39% of world production, followed by India with 5.6%, the US with 5.1%, and Japan with 4.0%. Other large producers include South Korea, Germany, and Brazil. US mills produced approximately 90.78 million metric tons of Portland cement in 2003, which was a record high and up from 86.97 million in 2002 and 88.12 million in 2001. Demand – US consumption of cement in 2002 fell to 110.02 million tons from 112.81 million in 2001. Trade – US exports of hydraulic and clinker cement rose to 834 million tons in 2002 from 746 million in 2001. The major suppliers of cement to the US are Canada, Thailand, China, Venezuela, and Greece. The US exports only a very small portion of cement, less than 1% of production.
In Thousands of Short Tons India
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Russia
Spain
Turkey
United States
World Total
33,302 62,000 31,533 75,000 35,945 80,000 36,610 85,000 35,912 90,000 34,727 95,000 30,989 100,000 30,000 100,000
33,715 33,327 33,721 35,512 37,299 38,925 39,804 40,000
90,474 94,492 91,938 81,328 80,120 81,097 76,550 71,800
55,130 58,434 60,317 46,091 48,157 51,255 52,046 55,514
36,500 27,800 26,700 26,000 28,400 32,400 35,300 37,700
26,423 25,157 27,632 33,080 35,782 38,115 40,512 42,500
33,153 35,214 36,035 38,200 34,258 35,825 30,125 32,577
76,906 80,818 84,255 85,522 87,777 89,510 90,450 91,266
1,445,000 1,493,000 1,540,000 1,540,000 1,600,000 1,650,000 1,730,000 1,800,000
Germany
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Cement in the United States
Year
Net Import Average Capacity Reliance Shipments Imports for Consumption5 Apparent Value Stocks Used at as a % of ----------- Production -------------- From Mills ----------------------- by Country --------------------C o n a t M i l l s (F.O.B. (Portland Apparent 3 Total Total Mill) Dec. 31 Exports sumption Canada Japan Mexico Spain Mills) Con- Portland Others Total Value4 % Mil. Tons Mil. $ $ per ton --------- Million Tons --------- --------- Thousands of Short Tons ---------sumption ------- Thousand Tons -------
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
11 12 14 19 23 20 21 19
73,303 75,797 78,948 79,942 81,577 83,514 84,450 85,283
3,603 3,469 3,634 3,989 4,375 4,332 4,450 4,449
76,906 79,266 82,582 83,931 85,952 87,846 88,900 89,732
81.2 83.4 84.7 84.9 83.6 80.7 79.1 78.7
78,518 83,963 90,359 96,857 103,271 105,557 112,510 108,500
5,329 5,952 6,637 7,404 8,083 8,293 8,600 8,250
67.87 70.89 73.46 76.45 78.27 78.56 76.50 76.00
5,814 5,488 5,784 5,393 6,367 7,566 6,600 7,680
759 803 791 743 694 738 746 834
86,003 90,355 96,018 103,460 108,862 110,470 112,810 110,020
4,886 5,351 5,350 5,957 5,511 4,948 5,110 5,181
6 6
1
850 1,272 995 1,280 1,286 1,409 1,645 1,228
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Masonry, natural & pozzolan (slag-line). 4 Value received F.O.B. mill, excluding cost of containers. clinker cement for consumption. 6 Less than 1/2 unit. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Shipments of Finished Portland Cement from Mills in the United States Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
5
1,501 1,595 1,845 2,204 1,900 1,177 651 327
13,848 14,154 17,596 24,086 29,351 28,683 25,861 24,169
Hydraulic &
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
4,111.3 4,552.0 4,487.3 4,765.5 5,107.6 5,554.3 5,489.6
4,487.1 4,559.7 5,132.9 5,343.1 5,088.8 5,369.3 4,559.9
5,739.1 5,867.4 6,380.5 7,196.9 6,684.5 6,133.9 6,511.6
7,009.5 7,009.7 7,112.2 6,930.2 7,799.4 7,859.7 8,009.0
7,489.3 7,420.2 7,406.9 8,448.2 8,507.9 8,291.4 8,290.4
7,733.7 8,095.1 8,096.9 8,391.5 8,385.8 8,135.6 8,521.9
8,132.4 8,295.6 7,782.2 7,843.8 8,333.2 8,466.9 9,078.5
7,909.2 7,963.3 8,173.2 8,982.3 8,851.2 8,676.2 8,837.0
8,186.1 8,089.5 7,652.7 7,860.8 7,512.2 7,909.7 8,758.7
8,678.9 8,404.6 8,204.2 8,474.2 8,953.3 8,326.1 9,777.7
6,108.6 6,640.5 7,453.4 6,587.0 7,353.3 6,956.3 6,983.4
5,471.9 6,059.4 5,959.1 4,865.5 5,548.0 5,293.4
81,064.3 82,956.8 83,841.5 84,980.3 88,124.9 86,972.9 92,528.3
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
29
Cheese Since prehistoric times, humans have been making and eating cheese. Dating back as far as 6,000 BC, archaeologists have discovered that cheese had been made from cow and goat milk and stored in tall jars. The Romans turned cheese making into a culinary art, mixing sheep and goat milk and adding herbs and spices for flavoring. By 300 AD, cheese was being exported regularly to countries along the Mediterranean coast. Cheese is made from the milk of cows and other mammals such as sheep, goats, buffalo, reindeer, camels, yaks, and mares. More than 400 varieties of cheese exist. There are three basic steps common to all cheese making. First, proteins in milk are transformed into curds, or solid lumps. Second, the curds are separated from the milky liquid (or whey) and shaped or pressed into molds. Finally, the shaped curds are ripened according to a variety of aging and curing techniques. Cheeses are usually grouped according to their moisture content into fresh, soft, semi-soft, hard, and very hard cheeses, with many classifications overlapping due to texture changes with aging. Cheese is a multi-billion dollar a year industry in the US. Cheddar cheese is the most common natural cheese produced in the US, accounting for 35% of US production. Cheeses originating in America include Colby, cream cheese,
and Monterey Jack. Varieties other than American cheeses, mostly Italian, now have had a combined level of production that easily exceeds American cheeses. Annual cheese consumption in the US totals about 29 pounds per person. Prices – Cheese prices in 2003 rallied to an average of 131.0 cents per pound from 118.2 cents in 2002. The average price of cheese in 2003 was mildly below the 10-year average price of about 135.0 cents. Cheese prices in 2003 recovered from the very weak years seen in 2000 (116.1 cents) and 2002 (118.2 cents), which were the lowest prices seen since 1975. Supply – US production of cheese in 2003 was on track to fall slightly to 8.595 billion pounds, down from 8.599 billion in 2002. The 2002 production level of 8.599 billion was an all-time record high for the US cheese industry. World production of cheese in 2002 rose to 12.680 million metric tons from 12.421 million in 2001. The US is the world’s largest producer of cheese with 29.9% of world production in 2002, followed by France (13.7%), and Germany (9.0%). Trade – US imports of cheese in 2002 rose to 475 million pounds from 445 million in 2001. US exports of cheese in rose to 119 million pounds in 2002 from 115 million pounds in 2001.
World Production of Cheese
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
385 370 390 415 407 446 445 440 370 340
234 241 268 285 305 320 373 374 413 371
330 360 385 405 421 434 445 460 470 480
282 277 289 329 330 329 328 329 335 330
286 311 298 290 289 293 305 312 317
1,541 1,579 1,594 1,645 1,648 1,658 1,720 1,740 1,740
855 875 947 990 1,008 1,006 1,098 1,125 1,145
913 942 950 985 1,003 969 958 972 980
648 680 688 693 638 655 683 650 640
192 197 230 240 266 245 297 281 312 272
326 354 364 368 358 361 332 365 365
3,054 3,138 3,274 3,325 3,398 3,581 3,746 3,747 3,900 3,975
11,194 11,345 11,059 11,388 11,378 11,750 12,223 12,313 12,649 12,647
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
2
Preliminary.
Estimate.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Supply and Distribution of All Cheese in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 1 5
Cheese ---------------------------------- Supply ----------------------------- 40-lb. Blocks January 1 Wisconsin ComAssembly ----- Production ----mercial Whole Points All Total Stocks Imports4 Milk2 Cheese3 cents/lb. Supply
2,957 2,974 3,131 3,281 3,286 3,315 3,533 3,642 3,544 3,709
Preliminary. Commercial.
30
2
6,528 6,735 6,917 7,218 7,330 7,492 7,894 8,258 8,261 8,599
470 466 437 412 487 481 518 621 706 659
321 335 340 338 312 371 436 416 445 475
7,303 7,536 7,695 7,968 8,130 8,344 8,847 9,295 9,412 9,733
131.50 131.50 132.80 146.80 132.40 158.10 142.28 116.14 144.93 118.22
In Millions of Pounds
--------------------------------------------- Distribution ---------------------------------------------
Exports & Shipments6
38 49 65 72 83 81 85 105 115 119
American --- Domestic Disappearance --Cheese Total American - Gov't - Removed Cheese D i sa p Dec. 31 by USDA P er Stocks Programs pearance Donated Total Capita
2.2 .9 .4 .3 .5 .6 1.0 2.3 4.0 2.7
8.3 6.9 6.1 4.6 11.3 8.2 4.6 28.0 3.9 15.1
Whole milk American cheddar. 3 All types of cheese except cottage, pot and baker's cheese. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
6,853 7,094 7,279 7,478 7,647 7,799 8,219 8,555 8,741 8,983 4
0 0
6,766 6,994 7,174 7,364 7,511 7,662 8,086 8,409 8,426
I mports for consumption.
26.24 26.82 26.90 27.30 27.50 27.70 29.00 29.80 29.60
CHEESE Production of Cheese in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
----------- American ----------Year
Whole Milk
Part S ki m
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021
2,957 2,974 3,131 3,281 3,286 3,315 3,533 3,642 3,544 3,709
3.7 24.7 24.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Swiss, Including Block Munster Total
2,961 2,999 3,155 3,281 3,286 3,315 3,533 3,642 3,544 3,709
231.4 221.2 221.7 219.0 207.6 206.4 221.0 229.3 245.5 254.1
Brick
117.5 113.6 109.1 106.8 100.2 94.6 80.3 85.5 82.2 80.4
Cream & Lim- Neufchatel Cheese burger
12.5 12.2 10.4 10.6 8.5 7.6 8.1 8.6 8.7 9.3
.9 .8 .9 .7 .7 .9 .7 .6 .7 .7
539.9 573.4 543.8 574.7 614.9 621.3 639.3 687.4 645.1 709.6
Italian Varieties
2,494.5 2,625.7 2,674.4 2,812.4 2,881.4 3,004.7 3,144.7 3,288.9 3,425.9 3,506.5
Total of All Blue All Other Mond Varieties Cheese2
33.3 36.5 36.6 38.3 42.8 5 5 5 5 5
137.2 152.1 164.6 106.7 119.8 166.0 181.0 219.7 199.6 208.3
------- Cottage Cheese ------Curd3 Creamed4
Lowfat
6,528 6,735 6,917 7,218 7,330 7,492 7,894 8,258 8,261 8,599
317.0 321.1 325.9 329.9 346.7 361.2 359.3 363.7 370.2 374.3
471.4 463.3 458.9 448.3 458.5 465.8 464.8 461.0 453.2 437.9
430.5 410.0 384.9 360.4 359.5 366.8 360.6 371.5 371.6 372.4
1
Preliminary. 2 Excludes full-skim cheddar and cottage cheese. 3 I ncludes cottage, pot, and baker's cheese with a butterfat content of less than 4%. 4 I ncludes cheese with a butterfat content of 4 to 19 %. 5 I ncluded in All Other Varieties. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture ERS-USDA)
Average Price of Cheese, 40-lb. Blocks, Chicago Mercantile Exchange2 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
132.2 124.5 139.3 127.9 144.5 162.4 114.6 110.3 132.4 109.3
134.2 130.4 139.3 132.3 144.7 131.5 111.6 120.0 120.8 109.2
140.0 131.1 140.9 134.0 138.8 134.0 112.2 131.9 121.3 108.2
143.3 122.8 145.1 125.6 129.7 133.6 110.7 140.5 124.5 112.3
125.7 122.1 151.8 116.5 123.0 124.8 110.6 160.3 120.1 114.2
120.2 126.9 151.5 117.9 151.3 138.1 120.0 166.8 113.0 118.6
129.1 126.7 158.2 123.3 162.6 159.7 125.2 168.5 108.9 151.2
132.2 132.2 167.6 137.6 166.9 189.0 125.5 171.8 115.8 160.0
135.6 141.3 145.5 141.4 171.0 167.3 133.4 173.9 120.4 160.0
135.4 145.0 162.3 142.4 183.5 134.0 109.4 139.7 119.5 158.8
127.9 145.8 133.9 143.8 188.7 117.3 107.5 126.4 108.9 139.3
121.3 144.6 126.0 146.1 192.5 115.7 113.0 129.1 113.1 133.8
131.5 132.8 146.8 132.4 158.1 142.3 116.1 144.9 118.2 131.2
1
Preliminary. 2 Data through December 2001 are for Wholesale Price of Cheese, 40-lb. Blocks, Wisconsin Assembly Points. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production2 of Cheese in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
538.3 559.3 590.0 598.1 617.2 631.6 692.9 680.3 717.5 717.8
505.8 523.3 576.0 577.1 574.3 591.7 649.5 625.3 667.9 653.5
591.8 596.0 625.4 638.0 646.7 698.2 714.8 713.7 742.8 735.4
554.3 559.6 606.0 598.5 636.9 663.8 694.0 670.2 719.2 721.4
590.4 595.3 636.5 642.0 650.4 668.9 730.4 706.8 748.3 742.2
558.7 579.2 595.8 623.4 639.9 664.4 695.7 678.5 708.3 714.5
550.7 556.5 582.2 613.2 607.9 641.3 687.6 676.0 692.2 717.2
562.4 550.8 589.5 596.5 596.4 642.6 683.8 660.0 714.3 709.0
565.5 571.3 584.5 604.3 583.8 637.6 653.8 641.8 683.9 712.1
574.5 588.6 612.2 615.5 633.2 666.5 688.5 682.1 732.2 741.4
559.3 584.7 595.5 594.5 637.8 683.4 675.0 691.2 725.4 710.4
578.3 618.4 623.9 627.9 667.4 704.2 688.4 703.1 747.2 753.1
6,730 6,883 7,218 7,329 7,492 7,894 8,255 8,129 8,599 8,628
Preliminary.
2
Excludes cottage cheese.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of All Varieties of Cheese in the United States, on First of Month Millions of Pounds Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
465.2 436.9 412.1 487.0 480.4 517.2 621.3 707.8 660.0 730.1
495.2 449.7 441.3 501.5 509.3 622.4 728.1 709.9 693.6 759.5
473.6 448.7 466.4 494.6 521.5 635.9 757.2 723.9 720.3 768.5
473.3 458.8 490.9 517.0 533.1 645.1 765.1 711.6 731.7 770.5
487.9 466.1 525.5 555.4 557.6 688.7 794.0 711.8 765.6 777.4
513.4 465.8 541.8 584.3 568.5 741.3 811.4 712.1 789.0 791.0
521.4 473.6 542.8 604.8 583.7 728.4 828.1 739.2 797.6 799.7
506.3 482.4 536.6 604.9 595.8 748.7 870.3 752.6 833.6 809.0
474.7 458.1 506.9 582.3 576.8 694.7 839.9 721.2 801.5 794.2
453.0 428.5 495.8 543.7 553.0 651.3 780.9 708.7 753.9 771.6
448.3 418.7 494.6 505.0 522.7 622.0 732.0 672.2 720.4 722.4
434.2 393.6 480.2 474.4 494.5 591.7 696.0 631.3 697.1 695.5
Quantities are given in net weight.
1
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
31
Chromium babwe with 6%. India has emerged as a major producer of chromium in the past two decades. India’s 2002 production level of 1.900 million metric tons was 5 times the level of 360,000 metric tons seen 20 years earlier. South Africa’s production in the late-1990s roughly doubled from the levels seen in the 1980s, but has flattened out in the past 8 years to an average year 6 metric tons per year. Kazakhstan’s production in 2002 of 2.300 million was slightly above its 10-year average production level of 2.14 million metric tons. Zimbabwe’s production in 2002 posted a new 25-year high of 780,000 metric tons. Demand – Based on the most recently available data, the metallurgical and chemical industry accounts for 94% of chromium usage in the US, with the remaining 6% used by the refractory industry. Trade – The US relied on imports for a record low 63% of its chromium consumption in 2002, down from 78% in 2000 and 2001 and 80% in 1998 and 1999. US chromium imports in 2002 fell to a record low 174,000 metric tons from 239,000 in 2001, and was less than half of the 453,000 metric ton import level in 2000. US exports of chromium are negligible and fell to 10,000 metric tons in 2002 from 38,000 in 2001.
Chromium is a steel-gray, hard, and brittle, metallic element that can take on a high polish. Its symbol is Cr and atomic number is 24. Chromium and its compounds are toxic. Discovered in 1797 by Louis Vauquelin, chromium is named after the Greek word for color, khroma. Vauquelin also discovered that an emerald’s green color is due to the presence of chromium, and many precious stones owe their color to the presence of chromium compounds. Chromium is primarily found in chromite ore. The primary use of chromium is to form alloys with iron, nickel, or cobalt. Chromium improves hardness and resistance to corrosion and oxidation in iron, steel, and nonferrous alloys. It is a critical alloying ingredient in the production of stainless steel, making up 10% or more of the final composition. More than half of chromium production is used in metallic products, and about one-third is used in refractories. Chromium is also used as a lustrous decorative plating agent, in pigments, leather processing, plating of metals, and catalysts. Supply – World production of chromium in 2002 rose +7.4% to 13.000 million metric tons from the 6-year low of 12.100 million metric tons in 2001. The world’s largest producers of chromium are South Africa with about 45% of world production, Kazakhstan with 17%, India with 14%, and Zim-
World Mine Production of Chromite
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Year
Albania
Brazil
Cuba
Finland
India
Iran
Kazakhstan
Madag a sca r
Philippines
South Africa
Turkey
Zimbabwe
World Total
115 118 160 144 106 102 71 63 130 135
308 360 448 408 301 537 488 603 409 280
18 29 31 37 44 46 52 56 50 46
511 573 598 582 589 498 597 628 575 566
1,000 909 1,540 1,363 1,363 1,311 1,473 1,947 1,678 1,900
124 354 371 130 169 212 255 153 105 80
2,900 2,100 2,420 1,190 1,796 1,603 2,406 2,607 2,046 2,369
144 90 106 137 140 104 ---119 52 11
62 76 111 107 88 54 20 26 27 24
2,840 3,640 5,090 5,078 6,162 6,480 6,817 6,622 5,502 6,436
767 1,270 2,080 1,279 1,703 1,404 770 546 390 314
252 517 707 697 640 605 653 668 780 749
9,300 10,400 14,000 11,600 13,600 13,700 14,300 14,700 12,200 13,500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Estimate.
Salient Statistics of Chromite in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Production Con- of Ferrosumption chromium
81 75 80 79 75 80 80 78 78 63
63 67 73 37 61 W W W W W
- Primary Conumer Groups - - Government5 Stocks, Dec. 31--
Exports
18 31 24 47 27 55 53 86 38 10
Imports for Consumption Reexports
329 272 415 361 349 383 475 453 239 174
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Cr2O3, 44% (Transvaal). Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
32
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Consumption by
2
4
Metallurgical & Chemical Refractory
Total
337 322 W W W W W W W W
48% Cr2O3.
314 302 W W W W W W W W 5
23 20 W W W W W W W W
Metallurgical & Chemical Refractory
259 250 194 165 167 W W 396 396 78
Data through 1999 are for Consumer.
16 17 11 8 8 W W 241 241 126
Total Stocks
275 266 205 173 175 159 130 637 637 204
W = Withheld.
- $ per Metric Ton South Africa3
Turkish4
60 110 60 110 80 230 80 230 75 150 68 145 63 145 60-65 140-150 NA NA NA NA
Coal Coal is a sedimentary rock composed primarily of carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Coal is a fossil fuel formed from ancient plants buried deep in the Earth’s crust over 300 million years ago. Historians believe coal was first used commercially in China for smelting copper and for casting coins around 1,000 BC. Almost 92% of all coal consumed in the US is burned by electric power plants, and coal accounts for about 55% of total electricity output. Coal is also used in the manufacture of steel. The steel industry first converts coal into coke, then combines the coke with iron ore and limestone, and finally heats the mixture to produce iron. Other industries use coal to make fertilizers, solvents, medicine, pesticides, and synthetic fuels. There are four types of mined coal: anthracite (used in high-grade steel production), bituminous (used for electricity generation and for making coke), sub-bituminous, and
World Production3 of Coal (Monthly Average) Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032
Australia
Canada
China
CzechRep.
14,721 15,921 16,120 17,235 18,247 18,751 25,292 27,409 21,739
3,054 3,216 3,336 3,435 3,190 3,043 2,817 2,845 2,537
103,325 113,394 116,417 114,402 94,806 80,200 70,782 80,040 92,339 104,686
1,448 1,431 1,378 1,339 1,343 1,193 1,238 1,261 1,206 1,133
lignite (both used primarily for electricity generation). Coal futures trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The contract trades in units of 1,550 tons and is priced in terms of dollars and cents per ton. Supply – US production of bituminous coal in 2003 fell slightly to 1.07 billion tons from 1.09 billion tons in 2002. Wyoming is the largest producer of coal in the US with 34% of the total, followed by West Virginia (14%), and Kentucky (11%). Demand – US consumption of coal in 2002 rose slightly to 1.07 billion tons. Trade – US exports of coal in 2002 totaled 39.6 million tons, accounting for about 4% of US production. The key exporting destinations for the US are Canada and Europe.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Germany
India
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Poland
Russia
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
4,802 4,905 4,428 4,267 3,776 3,657 3,111 2,406 2,197 2,095
20,974 22,785 23,840 24,764 24,356 25,004 25,802 26,563 27,938 28,297
2,603 3,460 3,945 4,340 5,027 5,892 6,402 7,554 8,588 7,641
8,298 6,626 6,086 6,268 5,672 4,644 6,239 6,355 5,884 6,248
11,094 11,349 11,425 11,427 9,644 9,301 8,598 8,658 8,676 8,541
14,730 14,743 13,875 13,317 12,779 13,799 14,292 15,507 15,198 16,068
7,608 6,796 6,178 6,293 6,431 6,804 6,749 6,908 6,838 6,491
4,149 4,420 4,183 4,041 3,431 3,090 2,600 2,677 2,482 2,482
78,131 78,091 80,426 82,398 84,484 83,191 81,164 84,771 81,139 81,139
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 All grades of anthracite and bituminous coal, but excludes recovered slurries, lignite and brown coal.. NA = Not avaliable. Source: United Nations
Production of Bituminous & Lignite Coal in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
Alabama
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky
Montana
Ohio
23,266 24,640 24,637 24,468 23,224 19,504 19,324 19,513 19,062 19,680
25,304 25,710 24,886 27,449 30,825 29,989 29,137 33,372 35,103 35,818
52,797 48,180 46,656 41,159 38,182 40,417 33,444 33,783 33,358 31,700
30,927 26,007 29,670 35,497 36,297 34,004 27,965 36,738 35,513 35,241
161,642 153,739 152,425 155,853 145,609 139,626 130,688 134,298 124,388 112,966
41,640 39,451 37,891 41,005 42,092 41,102 38,352 39,143 37,386 36,111
29,897 26,118 28,572 29,154 28,600 22,480 22,269 25,400 21,157 21,592
62,237 61,576 67,942 76,198 76,519 76,368 74,619 74,784 67,104 65,541
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Year
1
Texas
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming
Total
52,346 52,684 55,164 53,328 53,578 53,071 49,498 45,042 45,247 47,260
37,129 34,099 35,590 35,837 34,059 32,181 32,834 33,060 30,126 31,126
161,776 162,997 170,433 173,743 175,794 157,919 158,257 162,631 150,222 142,294
237,092 263,822 278,440 281,881 313,983 337,119 338,900 368,749 373,161 376,517
1,033,504 1,032,974 1,063,856 1,089,932 1,109,768 1,095,474 1,073,612 1,125,749 1,092,916 1,074,630
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production2 of Bituminous Coal in the United States 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Pennsylvania
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
76,578 88,351 83,013 92,425 97,012 90,928 87,222 96,721 101,939 92,649
81,569 83,893 83,671 88,028 86,167 92,015 86,846 86,802 90,208 82,130
95,969 93,020 90,392 92,265 95,091 98,672 99,045 99,176 90,108 88,994
87,534 80,092 88,158 87,909 91,735 88,630 81,793 89,954 90,039 88,819
82,105 83,291 88,562 94,296 90,397 84,436 88,715 94,840 91,673 90,055
86,223 84,210 83,824 86,382 92,099 89,734 90,583 92,657 85,555 87,982
77,421 79,511 88,331 88,666 90,497 87,759 84,442 89,037 86,190 88,231
93,881 88,035 94,664 89,319 91,212 92,600 96,361 99,048 92,054 89,285
88,346 89,052 87,388 92,298 95,442 92,248 88,848 88,985 92,212 90,131
85,085 90,573 94,195 94,562 96,723 89,146 92,542 99,529 94,033 96,148
86,317 86,779 86,400 83,344 90,544 90,885 94,035 93,736 87,836 86,052
87,856 81,292 86,493 94,913 94,567 92,450 87,272 88,234 91,058 94,154
1,028,884 1,032,974 1,059,104 1,085,254 1,106,128 1,089,503 1,077,704 1,118,719 1,092,905 1,074,630
Preliminary.
2
I ncludes small amount of lignite.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
33
COAL Production2 of Pennsylvania Anthracite Coal
In Thousands of Short Tons
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
318 304 302 351 306 355 271 302 131 108
335 304 349 366 305 369 283 275 117 98
415 372 367 492 309 389 382 323 116 98
380 332 371 374 405 354 342 283 121 115
375 335 361 351 384 459 375 300 122 114
379 353 335 390 388 402 383 297 240 107
346 307 367 407 525 343 366 328 116 97
457 396 418 423 454 436 430 358 126 95
412 428 385 415 452 479 412 318 119 100
453 445 557 448 533 414 417 375 130 139
452 388 505 384 167 407 402 349 120 119
395 347 434 415 167 406 366 173 126 124
4,717 4,682 4,751 4,678 4,612 4,808 4,432 3,681 1,584 1,314
1
2
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Represents production in Pennsylvania only.
Salient Statistics of Coal in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------- Exports ------------------------------------Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2 0 0 21
Production
Imports
Consumption
Brazil
Canada
Europe
A si a
Total
Total Ending Stocks2
945,424 1,033,504 1,032,974 1,063,856 1,089,932 1,117,535 1,100,431 1,073,612 1,127,689 1,093,806
7,309 7,584 7,201 7,126 7,487 8,724 9,089 12,513 19,787 16,875
944,081 951,461 962,039 1,005,573 1,030,453 1,038,972 1,044,536 1,080,894 1,060,789 1,071,862
5,197 5,482 6,351 6,540 7,455 6,475 4,442 4,536 4,574 3,538
8,889 9,193 9,427 12,029 14,975 19,901 19,826 18,769 17,633 16,686
37,575 35,825 48,620 47,193 41,331 33,773 22,508 24,969 20,821 15,574
19,500 17,957 19,095 17,980 14,498 12,311 9,157 6,702 3,246 1,735
74,519 71,359 88,547 90,473 83,545 77,295 58,476 58,489 48,666 39,601
120,458 169,358 169,083 151,627 140,374 164,602 183,523 140,020 181,926 181,885
L o sse s & Unaccounted For3
-13,924 -2,743 -7,863 -7,366 -4,418 -13,118 -6,525 -12,956 -3,885 -741
1
Preliminary. 2 Producer & distributor and consumer stocks, excludes stocks held by retail dealers for consumption by the residential and commercial sector. 3 Equals production plus imports minus the change in producer & distributor and consumer stocks minus consumption minus exports. Source: Energy I nformation Administraion, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Consumption and Stocks of Coal in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------------------------- Consumption ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Electric Utilities ------------------------- Industrial ------ Residential C o ke Other and Anthracite Bituminous Lignite Total Plants Industrial2 Commercial Total
951 1,123 978 1,009 1,014 867 686 NA NA NA
732,736 737,102 749,951 795,252 821,823 832,094 815,909 781,821 NA NA
79,821 79,045 78,078 78,421 77,524 77,906 77,525 75,794 NA NA
831,645 838,354 850,230 896,921 921,364 936,619 940,922 985,821 964,489 975,858
31,323 31,740 33,011 31,706 30,203 28,189 28,108 28,939 26,075 22,537
74,892 75,179 73,055 71,689 71,515 67,439 64,738 65,208 65,268 63,077
6,221 6,013 5,807 6,006 6,463 4,856 4,879 4,127 4,369 4,369
944,081 951,286 962,104 1,006,321 1,029,544 1,037,103 1,038,647 1,084,095 1,060,202 1,065,842
------------------- Stocks, Dec. 313 ------------------Producers -------------- Consumer -------------and Electric C o ke Other Utilities Plants Industrials Distributors
111,341 126,897 126,304 114,623 98,826 120,501 141,604 102,296 138,496 142,026
2,401 2,657 2,632 2,667 1,978 2,026 1,943 1,494 1,510 1,163
6,716 6,585 5,702 5,688 5,597 5,545 5,569 4,587 6,006 5,792
25,284 33,219 34,444 28,648 33,973 36,530 39,475 31,905 35,900 31,968
1
Preliminary. 2 I ncluding transportation. 3 Excludes stocks held at retail dealers for consumption by the residential and commercial sector. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Prices of Coal in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1
------- End-Use-Sector ------Other IndustElectric C o ke rial3 Imports4 Utilities Plants
28.58 28.03 27.01 26.45 26.16
47.44 46.56 47.34 47.33 47.36
32.23 32.55 32.42 32.32 32.41
29.89 30.21 34.13 33.78 34.32
In Dollars Per Short Ton
------------- Exports ------------MetalTotal Steam lurgical Average4
36.03 34.34 34.51 34.09 32.45
44.11 42.77 44.30 45.49 45.47
41.41 39.93 40.27 40.76 40.55
------- End-Use-Sector ------Other IndustElectric C o ke rial3 Imports4 Year Utilities Plants
1998 1999 2000 2001 20021
25.64 24.72 24.28 24.68 24.74
46.06 45.85 44.38 46.42 50.67
32.30 31.59 31.46 32.26 35.49
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Manufacturing plants only. 4 Based on the free alongside ship (F.A.S.) value. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
34
32.18 30.77 30.10 34.00 35.51
------------ Exports -----------MetalTotal Steam lurgical Average4
30.27 29.91 29.67 31.88 34.51
NA = Not available.
44.53 41.91 38.99 41.63 45.41
38.89 36.50 34.90 36.97 40.44
COAL Trends in Bituminous Coal, Lignite and Pennsylvania Anthracite in the U.S. ----------------------------------- Bituminous Coal and Lignite -----------------------------------
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------ Pennsylvania Anthracite ------------------
All Mines Labor Labor Product. Product. Miners1 Short Tons Short Tons Total Employed Miner/Hr. Miner/Hr.
------------ Labor Productivity --------------------------------- Production ----------------------Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Undergound
Surface
350,637 399,103 396,249 409,849 420,657 417,728 391,790 373,659 380,627 357,385
590,482 634,401 636,725 654,007 669,274 699,807 708,642 699,953 745,308 735,910
Underground Surface Average Miners1 Total Employed - Short Tons Per Miner Per Hour -
941,119 101,322 1,033,504 97,500 1,032,974 90,252 1,063,856 83,462 1,089,932 81,516 1,117,535 85,418 1,100,431 78,723 1,073,612 72,748 1,127,689 77,088 1,094,283 75,466
2.95 3.19 3.39 3.57 3.83 3.90 3.99 4.15 4.02 3.98
7.23 7.67 8.48 9.05 9.46 9.58 10.39 11.01 10.60 10.38
1 Excludes miners employed at mines producing less than 10,000 tons. U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Mine Prices of Coal in the United States ----- Average Mine Price by Method -----
Underground
Surface
416 343 428 391 419 408 377 301 341 305
3,889 4,278 4,254 4,360 4,259 4,823 4,376 4,271 1,143 1,189
4.70 4.98 5.38 5.69 6.04 6.20 6.61 6.99 6.82 6.80
4,306 4,621 4,682 4,751 4,678 5,231 4,753 4,572 1,484 1,494
1.85 1.93 2.08 1.92 1.76 2.04 1.76 1.89 .81 .78
4.70 4.98 5.38 5.69 6.04 6.20 6.61 6.99 6.82 6.80
Source: Energy I nformation Administration,
In Dollars Per Short Ton
--------------- Average Mine Prices by Rank ---------------
Year
Underground
Surface
Total
Lignite
Subbituminous
Bituminous
Anthracite1
Bituminous & Lignite FOB Mines2
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
26.92 26.39 26.18 25.96 25.68 25.64 24.33 23.84 25.37 26.68
15.67 15.02 14.25 13.82 13.39 12.92 12.37 12.26 13.18 13.65
19.85 19.41 18.83 18.50 18.14 17.67 16.63 16.44 17.38 17.98
11.11 10.77 10.83 10.92 10.91 10.80 11.04 11.41 11.52 11.07
9.33 8.37 8.10 7.87 7.42 6.96 6.87 7.12 6.67 7.34
26.15 25.68 25.56 25.17 24.64 24.87 23.92 24.15 25.36 26.57
32.94 36.07 39.78 36.78 35.12 42.91 35.13 40.90 47.67 47.78
20.56 25.68 25.56 25.17 24.64 24.87 23.92 24.15 25.36 26.57
1
1,124 1,183 1,069 1,171 1,287 1,281 1,326 1,272 955 872
Produced in Pennsylvania. 2 FOB = free on board. 3 CI F = cost, insurance and freight. Source: Energy I nformation Adminstration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Anthracite FOB Mines2
All Coal CIF3 Electric Utility Plants
37.80 36.07 39.78 36.78 35.12 42.91 35.13 40.90 47.67 47.78
28.58 28.03 27.01 26.45 26.16 25.64 24.72 24.28 24.68 24.74
W = Withheld data.
Dollars Per Short Ton ----- Bituminous, F.O.B. Mines (1949 - date) - - - Anthracite, F.O.B. Preparation Plants (1949 - 1978) Anthracite, F.O.B. Mines (1979 - date)
35
Cobalt Cobalt is a lustrous, silvery-white, magnetic, metallic element used chiefly for making alloys. Cobalt was known in ancient times and used by the Persians in 2250 BC to color glass. The name cobalt comes from the German word kobalt or kobold, meaning evil spirit. Miners gave cobalt its name because it was poisonous and troublesome since it polluted and degraded other mined elements, like nickel. In the 1730s, George Brandt first isolated metallic cobalt and was able to show that cobalt was the source of the blue color in glasses. In 1780, it was recognized as an element. Generally found in the form of ores, cobalt is not found as a free metal. It tends to be produced as a by-product of nickel and copper mining. Cobalt is used in high temperature steel alloys, fasteners in gas turbine engines, magnets and magnetic recording media, drying agents for paints, pigments, and in steelbelted radial tires. Cobalt-60, an important radioactive tracer and cancer-treatment agent, is an artificially produced radioactive isotope of cobalt. Prices – The price of cobalt plunged in 2002 to $6.90 per pound from $10.55 in 2001. The 2002 price was down by a dramatic 76% from the record high of $29.21 per pound posted in 1995. Supply – World mine production of cobalt in 2002 rose slightly by +0.5% to a 12-year high of 36,900 metric tons from 36,700 metric tons in 2001. Zambia was the world’s largest mine producer of cobalt in 2002 with 7,600 metric tons of production, followed by Australia with 6,600 metric
World Mine Production of Cobalt Year
Australia
Botswana
Canada
1,900 2,300 2,500 2,800 3,000 3,300 4,100 5,600 6,200 6,700
205 225 271 408 334 335 331 308 325 269
5,108 4,265 5,339 5,714 5,709 5,861 5,323 5,298 5,326 5,093
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
In Metric Tons (Cobalt Content) Finland France Ja p a n New Norway Cuba (Refinery) (Refinery) (Refinery) Caledonia (Refinery)
1,061 972 1,591 2,011 2,358 2,665 2,537 2,943 3,411 3,400
Formerly Zaire.
2,200 3,000 3,610 4,160 5,000 10,600 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Year
1
191 161 227 258 264 480 480 480 480 480
800 1,000 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,400 1,400
2,414 2,823 2,804 3,098 3,417 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500
Congo3
Zambia
World Total
3,500 3,000 3,500 3,300 3,300 3,600 3,900 4,000 4,600 4,600
2,459 826 1,647 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,000 10,000 13,000 12,500
4,840 3,600 5,908 6,959 6,037 11,900 5,640 4,600 8,000 10,000
21,900 18,000 24,500 26,200 27,400 35,300 31,600 37,200 45,800 47,600
In Metric Tons (Cobalt Content)
Net Import ------------------------------------------------- Consumption by End Uses -----------------------------------------------Reliance Cobalt Processors and Imports as a % of SeconCutting Drier in & WearMagfor Ground Stainless Price dary Consumer Total Apparent netic Pig- Paints, Resistant Welding Apparent Coat & Heat Cata- Super- Tool ConStocks $ P er ProConetc.3 Material Materials lysts alloys Steel Alloys ments Frit Resisting Dec. 31 sumption Uses Pound4 sumption duction
79 81 79 76 76 73 73 74 78 75
1,566 1,570 1,860 2,280 2,750 3,080 2,720 2,550 2,740 2,700
819 914 818 770 763 750 738 820 852 917
5,950 6,780 6,440 6,710 8,430 7,670 8,150 8,770 9,410 8,450
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Or related usage. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
36
144 146 161 174 159 300 300 300 300 300
Russia
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Cobalt in the United States
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
tons, Canada with 5,300 metric tons, and Russia with 4,600 metric tons. Russian production is on the upswing and rose by 21% in 2002 from 2001. Australian production rose 6.5% in 2002 to 6,600 metric tons, and tripled its output from 10 years earlier. When factoring in countries that are big refiners of cobalt, versus miners, Finland takes the world production record with 10,000 metric tons of production in 2001 and Norway had production of 4,500 metric tons. The United States does not mine or refine cobalt although some cobalt is produced as a by-product of mining operations. The US cobalt supply was made up of imports, stock releases, and secondary materials. Secondary production included extraction from super-alloy scrap, cemented carbide scrap and spent catalysts. In the US there were two domestic producers of extra-fine cobalt powder. One produced the powder from imported primary metal and the other from recycled materials. There were seven companies that produced cobalt compounds. US secondary production of cobalt in 2002 fell to 2,700 metric tons from 2,740 metric tons in 2001. Demand – US consumption of cobalt in 2002 fell to 10,800 metric tons from 11,800 metric tons in 2001. The largest use by far was for super-alloys with 4,850 metric tons of consumption. Trade – US imports of cobalt in 2002 fell slightly to 9,400 metric tons, but that was only mildly below the record high of 9,410 metric tons seen in 2001. The US relies on imports for 75% of its cobalt consumption.
W W 196 391 490 W W W W W 4
41 41 38 38 38 38 W W W W
935 871 732 652 734 W W W W W
2,530 2,810 2,940 3,360 4,170 4,060 3,830 4,070 4,850 3,700
Annual spot for cathodes.
59 84 146 95 112 96 W W W W
569 698 757 719 879 771 794 625 472 416
193 198 172 191 201 W W W W W
732 809 770 733 556 W W W W W
W = Withheld proprietary data.
569 723 748 722 789 844 755 760 720 617
171 312 287 347 342 421 291 867 661 634
7,350 8,730 8,970 9,380 11,200 11,500 10,700 11,600 11,800 9,860
13.79 24.66 29.21 25.50 23.34 21.43 17.02 15.16 10.55 6.91
Cocoa Cocoa is the common name for a powder derived from the fruit seeds of the cacao tree. The Spanish called cocoa “the food of the gods” when they came upon it in South America 500 years ago. Today, it remains a precious commodity. Dating back to the time of the Aztecs, cocoa was mainly used as a beverage. The processing of the cacao seeds, also known as cocoa beans, begins when the harvested fruit is fermented or cured into a pulpy state for three to nine days. The cocoa beans are then dried in the sun and cleaned in special machines before they are roasted to bring out the chocolate flavor. After roasting, they are put into a crushing machine and ground into cocoa powder. Cocoa has a high food value because it contains as much as 20 percent protein, 40 percent carbohydrate, and 40 percent fat. It is also mildly stimulating because of the presence of theobromine, an alkaloid that is closely related to caffeine. Roughly two-thirds of cocoa bean production is used to make chocolate and one-third to make cocoa powder. The four major West African cocoa producers are the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon, that together account for about two-thirds of world production. The Ivory Coast produces about 43 percent of the world’s cocoa. The next largest producer is Ghana with about 14 percent of the world’s output. Nigeria produces about 6 percent of the world’s cocoa. Outside of West Africa, the major producers of cocoa are Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic. Cocoa producers like Ghana and Indonesia have been making efforts to increase cocoa production while producers like Malaysia have been switching to other crops. Ghana has had an ongoing problem with black pod disease and with smuggling of the crop into neighboring Ivory Coast. Brazil was once one of the largest producers but has had problems with witches’ broom disease. In West Africa, the main crop harvest starts in the September-October period and can be extended into the JanuaryMarch period. Cocoa trees reach maturity in 5-6 years but can live to be 50 years old or more. During the course of a growing season, the cocoa tree will produce thousands of flowers but only a few will develop into cocoa pods. Cocoa futures and options are traded at the CSCE Division of the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) and on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE). The futures contracts call for the delivery of 10 metric tons of cocoa and the contract is priced in US dollars per metric ton.
World Supply and Demand Cocoa Crop Year Beginning October
Net World ProStocks Oct. 1 duction
1988-9 1989-90 1990-1 1991-2 1992-3 1993-4 1994-5 1995-6
959 1,283 1,477 1,616 1,581 1,532 1,520 1,372
1
2,460 2,425 2,510 2,269 2,360 2,472 2,353 2,941
Total Avail- Seasonal ability Grindings
3,419 3,708 3,987 3,885 3,941 4,004 3,873 4,313
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd.
2,118 2,212 2,351 2,284 2,395 2,465 2,483 2,655 4
Prices – Cocoa prices on the CSCE nearest-futures chart posted a new 20-year high of $2,420 per metric ton in early 2003 and then fell sharply early in the year, spending the latter half of the year consolidating in the range mainly between $1400-1800. However, that was still well above the all-time contract low of $674 posted as recently as December 2000. Cash cocoa in late 2000 hit lows not seen since the early 1970s. Prices were boosted in 2002 and early 2003 by tighter supplies and by unrest in the Ivory Coast. The cocoa market is very sensitive to developments in West Africa and particularly in the Ivory Coast where most of the world’s cocoa is produced. Developments there that would in any way hinder the harvesting and movement of cocoa to the market are seen as very bullish and result in higher prices. Prices in early 2003 fell back as the cocoa market moved into a surplus situation in 2002/3 versus the deficit seen in 2001/2. Production was strong in West Africa as producers responded to high prices by maximizing output, thus putting downward pressure on prices. Supply – The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimates that global cocoa production in the 2002/3 (Oct/ Sep) season was 3.102 million metric tons, up 8.4% from 2.861 million in 2001/2. Cocoa beans are processed or ground to produce the ingredients that are used in making chocolate and chocolate products. Those ingredients are mainly cocoa powder and cocoa butter. The trend among cocoa processors has been to grind beans to produce cocoa powder rather than butter because the demand for cocoa butter has been weaker since there are less expensive substitutes for making chocolate. World grindings are forecast in 2002/3 at 2.996 million metric tons, up 4.1% from 2.877 million in 2001/2. West Africa is expected to produce the most significant contribution to the rise in global output where production is forecast to increase by close to 9 percent (up 167,000 metric tons to 2.109 million metric tons), followed by the Americas (up 33,000 metric tons or 9 percent), while production in the Asia and Oceania regions is likely to remain the same. End-of-season stocks are forecast in 2002/3 at 1.191 million metric tons, up 6.7% from 1.116 million in 2001/2. The ICCO forecasts that the cocoa market in 2002/3 was in a surplus state of 75,000 metric tons, which is a bearish factor and a switch from a 45,000 metric ton deficit in 2001/ 2.
In Thousands of Metric Tons Closing Stocks
Stock Change
1,283 1,477 1,616 1,584 1,532 1,520 1,372 1,636
323 194 139 -32 -53 -12 -148 264
Crop Year Beginning October
Stocks Oct. 1
Net World Production
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43
1,636 1,598 1,440 1,470 1,495 1,210 1,097 1,166
2,712 2,635 2,808 3,036 2,803 2,773 3,045 3,068
Total Avail- Seasonal ability Grindings
4,348 4,233 4,248 4,506 4,298 3,983 4,142 4,234
2,730 2,773 2,756 2,988 3,067 2,865 2,954 3,042
Closing Stock Stocks Change
1,598 1,440 1,470 1,495 1,210 1,097 1,166 1,168
-39 -158 31 25 -285 -113 68 3
Obtained by adjusting the Gross World Crop for one percent loss in weight.
37
COCOA World Production of Cocoa Beans Crop Year Beginning October
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
Preliminary.
Brazil
Cameroon
Colombi a
Domini ca n Republic
215 222 183 173 138 124 163 124 162 170
109 117 121 114 123 115 131 126 140 130
48 45 39 38 39 37 42 42 43 42
57 55 47 60 22 28 37 44 45 45
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Year
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22 2002-33
Belgium
Brazil
50 53 54 55 55 55 55 55 NA NA
210 174 183 180 188 191 202 195 173 189
110 108 130 145 195 210 230 285 276 275
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
Ecuador
83 103 101 28 72 92 81 72 78 95
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 9 9 91 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 9 9 91
Total
World Total
43 30 35 30 25 31 33 31 32 30
145 165 160 165 200 175 177 167 150 160
29 35 28 26 35 46 39 38 40 40
2,353 2,941 2,712 2,635 2,808 3,036 2,803 2,773 3,045 3,068
Ghana
Ivory C o a st
Malaysia
Mexico
310 404 323 409 398 435 395 340 490 475
238 284 327 331 396 415 393 443 425 465
862 1,265 1,130 1,090 1,175 1,404 1,185 1,240 1,315 1,300
120 116 102 57 79 37 29 10 15 20
4
In Thousands of Metric Tons France
Germany
Italy
Malaysia
Netherlands
Singapore
United Kingdom
United States
Former U.S.S.R.
World Total
95 108 111 106 107 124 142 148 NA NA
310 280 270 255 240 197 215 225 NA NA
65 69 73 71 72 72 73 73 NA NA
103 101 96 103 94 109 117 121 93 123
331 350 385 402 425 415 437 440 NA NA
59 59 63 61 68 63 60 59 62 74
170 154 191 172 174 166 167 159 NA NA
317 331 345 394 399 406 439 445 393 402
75 75 75 74 50 48 62 67 70 60
2,465 2,483 2,655 2,730 2,773 2,756 2,988 3,067 2,865 2,954
Figures represent the grindings of cocoa beans in each country.
R aw C o co a Grin d in g s in S elected C o u n tries Fi rst Quarter
Nigeria
Papua New Guinea
Indonesia
Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
World Consumption of Cocoa4 Cote d'Ivoire
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Second Quarter
Thi rd Quarter
NA = Not available.
In Metric Tons Fourth Quarter
---------------------------------- Germa ny 2 ---------------------------------281,855 69,125 64,613 70,994 77,123 290,703 73,172 72,396 70,934 73,661 319,251 78,661 73,797 80,111 86,682 298,681 74,119 69,805 74,010 80,747 296,219 80,242 68,033 67,706 80,238 258,817 69,441 56,478 61,523 71,375 251,070 69,520 59,471 65,824 56,255 245,244 61,379 57,402 65,233 61,230 217,442 62,154 47,565 55,267 52,456 195,732 48,486 48,605 47,321 51,320 ---------------------------- United King do m -----------------------------124,791 32,116 29,322 29,419 33,934 148,191 32,902 36,016 41,863 37,410 159,284 39,831 37,903 37,120 44,430 171,343 44,575 41,975 37,496 47,297 163,170 44,131 39,063 39,591 40,385 159,877 43,410 35,348 34,431 46,688 189,037 50,500 44,535 48,855 45,147 173,522 44,059 42,702 41,180 45,581 171,773 45,787 42,338 40,047 43,601 167,556 42,557 39,758 40,238 45,003
Total
Fi rst Quarter
Second Quarter
Thi rd Quarter
------------------------------------ Netherla nds --------------------------------247,590 62,243 58,817 58,702 67,828 274,741 64,299 71,643 63,973 74,826 293,157 77,954 71,537 69,871 73,795 320,060 78,338 75,548 81,183 84,991 334,384 83,963 78,055 84,249 88,117 355,492 91,314 85,248 85,311 93,619 388,412 100,866 90,724 99,549 97,273 407,340 102,338 100,132 101,817 103,053 427,393 104,936 108,101 108,580 105,776 415,250 107,189 102,933 98,828 106,300 -------------------------------- United Sta tes3 --------------------------------216,740 51,559 51,683 58,278 55,220 255,781 51,191 64,365 66,544 73,681 313,921 70,335 74,515 84,109 84,962 321,905 78,968 77,720 84,593 80,624 322,629 71,398 78,805 86,247 86,179 338,401 78,835 78,886 87,360 93,320 351,042 79,044 82,713 93,933 95,352 397,895 95,435 97,223 105,984 99,253 397,389 99,189 96,341 104,359 97,500 418,996 98,218 102,488 107,568 110,722
P reliminary. 2 B eg inning October 1990, includes former E ast Germany. 3 Data incomplete January 1984-March 1991, ex cludes one maj or processor. S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
1
38
Fourth Quarter
COCOA Imports of Cocoa Butter in Selected Countries Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 1
In Metric Tons
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
NetherLands
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
10,697 13,129 13,030 12,150 14,316 14,896 16,305 22,573 20,591 20,632
5,249 5,417 5,410 7,425 7,124 6,922 5,984 5,363 4,425 NA
31,836 28,989 34,061 26,185 23,771 34,222 25,722 42,278 52,917 51,576
10,706 10,225 11,551 11,146 12,166 16,782 16,941 17,323 22,005 23,307
28,560 30,611 36,698 40,245 47,349 46,516 43,610 49,722 48,033 51,101
44,906 37,269 59,170 69,928 69,298 71,094 76,057 70,323 71,985 80,278
8,431 9,851 9,173 12,027 11,178 9,706 8,957 8,281 11,106 10,935
15,835 16,422 15,937 12,898 16,096 16,609 15,363 17,824 21,696 21,665
29,999 51,559 43,192 38,300 39,193 29,023 28,523 35,602 27,253 NA
5,885 6,390 7,079 7,078 5,698 6,937 7,403 6,884 5,986 NA
17,422 16,711 17,242 17,835 18,690 19,058 19,857 21,278 19,923 20,604
26,300 25,941 35,453 30,654 32,781 37,021 32,951 39,648 36,360 40,668
99,509 85,400 54,550 57,210 68,761 87,687 65,306 80,475 94,649 80,806
Preliminary.
NA = Not available.
Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
In Metric Tons
Imports of Cocoa Liquor and Cocoa Pow der in Selected Countries Year
----------------------------------- Cocoa Liqour ----------------------------------NetherUnited United France Germany lands Japan Kingdom States
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1
45,056 41,999 42,392 46,570 62,938 61,148 70,883 74,721 67,812 67,590
1
Preliminary.
2,540 1,694 2,682 5,083 7,437 10,299 9,121 13,833 14,295 17,548
7,130 15,543 14,913 6,822 9,926 8,401 12,534 25,639 33,815 NA
NA = Not available.
2,246 2,468 2,312 1,832 2,133 1,393 1,144 1,421 1,618 1,613
3,611 1,490 4,443 5,030 5,069 5,860 3,813 4,396 8,529 10,290
24,255 31,641 26,846 19,192 15,357 17,850 21,894 12,823 10,902 17,937
------------------------------------------- Cocoa Pow der -------------------------------------------NetherUnited Denmark France Germany Italy Ja p a n lands States
3,291 3,402 3,625 3,229 3,711 4,189 3,865 3,676 3,348 4,014
14,896 16,773 19,215 17,081 18,398 19,555 19,533 19,342 21,932 18,987
27,745 25,732 28,806 32,247 36,211 35,069 32,479 33,404 34,601 29,775
14,469 13,221 12,884 15,265 15,006 15,872 17,122 16,464 18,261 NA
6,067 5,771 6,461 6,310 13,069 8,941 8,779 9,779 11,245 11,424
9,412 5,626 10,078 10,048 6,678 4,424 3,746 8,405 22,492 NA
56,089 66,533 67,207 66,075 68,658 71,024 84,211 84,975 86,908 83,169
Source: ED&F Man Cocoa Ltd
Imports of Cocoa and Products in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
67 68 90 80 86 100 111 108 86 114
68 54 87 47 105 79 128 97 73 73
56 44 90 77 90 81 101 77 72 91
61 48 80 71 71 93 91 47 61 70
49 47 55 64 55 51 70 68 76 67
51 48 49 54 65 60 67 61 71 73
49 48 62 59 65 77 70 80 86 93
58 51 53 47 62 62 70 78 97 78
58 53 53 64 72 68 86 76 61 78
61 49 60 61 63 67 76 86 65 94
45 54 60 56 54 82 59 92 89 84
48 79 86 88 77 102 69 118 72 115
672 643 821 768 865 922 999 989 909 1,031
1
Preliminary.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Visible Stocks of Cocoa in Port of Hampton Road Warehouses1, at End of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Thousands of Bags
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
2,329.6 2,152.7 1,439.8 1,128.3 726.5 661.6 469.7 741.9 504.7 149.9
2,441.1 2,098.6 1,492.8 1,132.1 693.4 693.2 448.4 657.4 462.8 121.7
2,443.9 2,195.7 1,458.0 1,133.0 841.9 642.5 571.7 632.0 436.7 103.1
2,522.9 2,212.3 1,549.6 1,094.0 842.5 579.7 583.4 607.7 424.0 102.3
2,533.1 2,120.2 1,561.7 1,010.5 811.6 536.9 711.1 577.3 383.8 80.5
2,460.2 2,016.0 1,493.9 970.2 764.7 500.7 672.4 518.8 353.4 71.9
2,445.4 1,919.8 1,412.3 872.4 714.3 489.0 720.3 498.2 327.4 69.2
2,335.0 1,786.6 1,315.4 840.1 712.3 472.7 925.2 487.5 273.3 67.7
2,308.4 1,713.1 1,239.6 727.3 795.4 473.4 921.4 475.2 255.4 56.9
2,360.2 1,598.2 1,338.9 763.9 801.9 451.8 839.7 506.8 194.8 53.0
2,306.9 1,463.9 1,108.1 695.7 705.9 438.9 762.9 509.0 181.5 49.6
2,253.7 1,470.3 1,116.2 704.8 673.0 421.2 816.0 511.4 169.9 49.3
Licensed and unlicensed warehouses approved by the CSCE.
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
39
COCOA
USD Per Metruc Ton ----- Ivory Coast (Oct. 1980 - date) ----- Exchange Standard, New York (Dec. 1926 - Dec. 1947) Accra, New York (Jan. 1948 - Dec. 1984)
Visible Stocks of Cocoa in Philadelphia (Del. River) Warehouses1, at End of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
831.5 807.5 960.2 1,753.0 1,420.3 1,763.0 1,619.0 1,844.0 1,701.5 1,347.2
937.7 1,034.3 1,005.2 1,634.4 1,435.7 1,832.8 1,801.7 2,082.3 1,876.7 1,422.0
1,004.2 1,038.9 1,205.6 1,579.6 1,592.6 1,982.7 2,466.4 2,173.3 1,849.3 1,327.9
1,010.9 1,020.2 1,658.8 1,641.0 1,555.3 2,217.8 2,582.0 1,960.0 1,708.0 1,326.5
1,055.4 963.7 1,871.3 1,578.7 1,398.5 2,019.4 2,581.6 1,785.9 1,746.4 1,217.2
1,095.2 924.3 1,851.7 1,625.9 1,287.8 1,999.6 2,363.7 1,610.4 1,689.5 1,202.3
1,076.0 860.7 1,969.1 1,696.2 1,279.8 2,084.6 2,168.3 1,391.6 1,793.1 1,229.2
1,029.8 759.2 1,816.2 1,637.6 1,376.9 2,133.4 2,101.6 1,543.0 1,832.7 1,123.7
968.5 852.2 1,851.1 1,530.9 1,373.7 2,144.1 2,105.1 1,391.3 1,750.9 930.6
857.1 727.0 1,705.1 1,491.8 1,260.6 2,015.5 2,039.1 1,131.4 1,334.5 798.9
843.9 666.0 1,671.7 1,414.2 1,406.7 1,774.4 1,697.4 1,303.2 1,162.7 723.7
818.9 735.6 1,696.5 1,394.0 1,637.1 1,608.5 1,589.4 1,682.1 1,250.6 806.0
Licensed and unlicensed warehouses approved by the CSCE.
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Visible Stocks of Cocoa in New York Warehouses1, at End of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Thousands of Bags
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
271.0 560.5 667.6 984.7 973.9 1,085.0 1,633.7 1,005.6 1,088.9 614.6
275.0 634.5 646.1 981.3 1,342.7 1,089.3 1,689.5 1,173.8 870.8 625.4
280.8 559.2 632.7 945.0 1,271.3 1,083.1 1,926.9 1,119.6 892.0 593.7
296.6 539.4 627.2 1,250.0 1,675.7 1,134.1 2,049.8 1,024.9 816.1 612.9
358.6 510.4 656.1 1,574.4 1,552.3 1,139.4 1,926.7 967.5 739.1 515.1
394.1 561.1 633.5 1,524.7 1,516.7 1,114.3 1,789.6 906.6 736.0 476.1
447.5 579.3 1,191.7 1,512.8 1,404.6 1,093.5 1,632.2 776.2 640.9 423.6
447.5 595.4 1,154.2 1,348.0 1,293.1 974.5 1,383.7 758.5 553.6 388.2
467.3 459.9 1,121.4 1,217.3 1,300.1 941.9 1,323.7 657.6 670.1 483.4
427.3 598.7 973.2 1,073.7 1,126.4 821.7 1,234.8 687.4 525.7 301.9
407.2 679.7 950.1 1,020.0 989.2 847.5 1,100.0 750.8 473.1 391.3
556.1 598.7 919.0 980.4 1,031.6 1,573.1 1,019.4 1,196.2 554.8 342.9
Licensed and unlicensed warehouses approved by the CSCE.
40
In Thousands of Bags
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
COCOA
Average Open Interest of Cocoa Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
89,174 78,873 90,478 86,960 90,574 77,067 100,540 132,711 97,563 96,375
87,349 80,786 93,533 90,589 82,205 72,324 110,316 119,459 98,169 91,944
91,715 82,299 98,049 96,771 78,022 69,221 106,056 114,036 96,336 83,625
82,500 78,435 95,390 96,956 73,237 65,856 102,382 102,275 98,851 83,230
82,970 80,547 96,346 94,651 79,294 71,990 113,239 107,008 103,746 95,307
72,288 75,496 88,232 97,385 74,347 75,195 111,948 111,224 100,701 96,813
72,249 74,975 80,873 101,815 74,295 70,787 112,864 104,473 107,080 89,846
69,614 65,794 77,134 101,138 73,975 69,939 117,260 99,280 102,441 78,197
73,436 68,547 77,942 106,487 71,978 74,572 123,463 92,235 107,294 76,468
74,163 72,758 79,572 108,263 74,139 79,770 138,523 96,204 107,880 86,392
72,232 76,680 77,139 99,544 74,127 89,035 139,141 93,088 82,236 99,038
75,995 79,844 78,592 97,009 73,480 92,609 138,266 92,326 82,844 94,185
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of Cocoa Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
178,303 197,032 177,720 180,669 175,844 136,109 156,812 311,900 155,699 172,845
190,804 183,784 226,701 172,510 145,311 155,090 231,562 168,587 187,550 215,240
205,623 191,328 213,189 219,896 171,333 141,090 232,803 164,131 129,833 136,564
188,004 208,707 242,988 235,020 192,120 180,837 186,837 136,021 217,590 179,956
267,188 169,061 164,749 130,041 143,602 130,019 147,072 154,397 160,364 176,969
251,300 199,211 183,544 251,471 183,719 230,925 267,470 201,299 220,289 207,255
193,883 140,789 159,070 186,280 131,642 125,360 124,906 108,189 176,450 143,888
241,340 205,169 164,719 200,707 156,737 144,290 191,849 207,569 209,249 206,428
142,589 120,433 107,634 168,981 115,066 147,124 111,740 118,428 138,394 146,113
183,975 149,810 167,227 204,394 125,320 143,335 174,216 124,884 207,310 197,316
210,635 211,171 185,226 180,805 155,280 209,608 186,515 202,847 162,982 209,775
164,917 113,603 128,809 143,735 114,606 124,249 98,266 107,565 114,270 135,857
2,417,006 2,090,098 2,121,576 2,274,509 1,810,580 1,868,036 2,110,048 2,005,817 2,079,980 2,128,206
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
41
Coconut Oil and Copra Coconut oil and copra come from the fruit of the coconut palm tree, which originated in Southeast Asia. Coconut oil has been used for thousands of years as cooking oil, and is still a staple in the diets of many people living in tropical areas. Until shortages of imported oil developed during WWII, Americans also used coconut oil for cooking. Copra is the meaty inner lining of the coconut. It is an oil-rich pulp with a light, slightly sweet, nutty flavor. Copra is used mainly as a source of coconut oil and is also used shredded for baking. High-quality copra contains about 65% to 72% oil, and oil made from the copra is called crude coconut oil. Crude coconut oil is processed from copra by expeller press and solvent extraction. It is not considered fit for human consumption until it has been refined, which consists of neutralizing, bleaching and deodorizing it at high heat with a vacuum. The remaining oil cake obtained as a by-product is used for livestock feed. Premium grade coconut oil, also called virgin coconut oil, is oil made from the first pressing with out the addition of any chemicals. Premium grade coconut oil is more expensive than refined or crude oil because the producers use only selected raw materials and there is a lower production yield due to only one pressing. Coconut oil accounts for approximately 20% of all vegetable oils used worldwide. Coconut oil is used in margarines, vegetable shortening, salad oils, confections, and in sports drinks to boost energy and enhance athletic perfor-
World Production of Copra Year
India Indonesia
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 20033
592 655 720 720 735 718 700 710 720 690
1
Preliminary.
2
3
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Ivory C o a st
Malaysia
Mexico
Mozambique
New Guinea
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vanuatu
Vietnam
World Total
65 72 75 45 43 36 45 45 45 45
60 66 60 60 50 48 49 49 58 60
216 217 204 217 237 199 202 198 165 172
74 74 75 76 76 73 75 75 75 75
104 125 178 159 143 146 152 70 81 85
1,930 2,500 1,725 2,210 2,270 1,250 2,140 2,790 2,065 2,020
104 113 75 67 71 68 98 95 70 75
100 103 61 61 61 65 69 69 69 70
27 30 33 34 43 30 27 24 27 28
210 208 210 96 68 72 45 50 52 53
5,072 5,544 4,880 5,363 5,077 3,874 5,248 5,668 4,982 4,960
1,270 1,080 1,155 1,300 965 860 1,330 1,180 1,240 1,270
Estimate.
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
World Supply and Distribution of Coconut Oil Year
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22 2002-33 1
Preliminary.
42
--------------------- Production --------------------IndoMalPhilipIndia nesia aysia pines Total
343 383 397 424 442 431 421 431 421 435 2
704 638 612 756 652 458 787 700 746 756
Estimate.
32 36 35 35 39 51 54 49 49 55 3
mance. It is also used in the manufacture of soaps, detergents, shampoos, cosmetics, candles, glycerin and synthetic rubber. Coconut oil is very healthy, unless it is hydrogenated, and is easily digested. Prices – The price of coconut oil (crude) in December 2003 was 21.00 cents per pound, little changed from the 2002 average of 21.01 cents. The 2003 price was a 13-year low going back to 20.66 in 1990. Coconut prices in 2003 were down by more than 50% from the peak of 42.42 cents seen in 1996. Supply – World production of copra in 2003/4 was forecast at 5.38 million metric tons, up 5.3% from 5.11 million in 2002/3. Ending stocks were unchanged in 2003/4 from 2002/3 at 20,000 metric tons. World production of coconut oil in 2003/4 was forecast at 3.33 million metric tons, up 5.0% from 3.17 million 2002/3. The world’s largest producer of copra in 2003 by far was the Philippines with 41% of world production, followed by Indonesia with 26%. Demand – Virtually all of world production of copra in 2003/4 went for crushing into coconut meal and oil (98.7%). World consumption of coconut oil in 2003/4 rose 2.2% to 3.32 million metric tons. Trade – Copra is generally crushed in the country of origin, so exports of copra account for less than 4% of world production. However, exports of coconut oil in 2003/4 rose 7.3% to 1.91 million metric tons, accounting for 57% of world production.
1,242 1,564 1,206 1,257 1,628 783 1,198 1,731 1,441 1,292
Forecast.
3,009 3,312 2,912 3,150 3,411 2,369 3,100 3,517 3,213 3,085
Exports
1,361 1,775 1,374 1,726 2,125 1,040 1,805 2,182 1,828 1,782
Source: The Oil World
In Thousands of Metric Tons --------------------------- Consumption --------------------------- ------ Ending Stocks -----European Indo- PhilipUnited Philip- United Imports Union India nesia pines States Total pines States Total
1,437 1,760 1,405 1,658 2,111 1,136 1,725 2,179 1,878 1,784
547 346 660 384 606 396 688 432 771 440 578 446 754 435 729 448 693 448 634 458
337 492 373 213 211 110 110 280 304 245
294 309 306 339 302 295 299 348 372 362
483 491 427 504 540 461 420 437 516 463
2,962 3,325 3,005 3,067 3,184 2,744 2,927 3,357 3,346 3,187
181 99 100 92 32 58 112 60 60 55
74 74 38 68 178 69 62 118 103 67
457 430 368 384 598 319 412 570 486 387
COCONUT OIL AND COPRA Supply and Distribution of Coconut Oil in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
----- Rotterdam -----
Year
Copra Coconut Tonne Oil, CIF --------- $ U.S. --------
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 1
388 432 487 452 391 468 357 208 245 293
Preliminary.
2
564 656 746 693 625 748 539 323 388 458
Estimate.
---------- Disappearance ---------- -------- Production of Coconut Oil (Refined) --------
Imports For Consumption
Stocks Oct. 1
Total Supply
999 1,100 873 1,188 1,440 791 926 1,100 1,150 1,150
251 163 163 83 149 392 152 136 260 301
1,250 1,263 1,036 1,271 1,589 1,183 1,078 1,236 1,410 1,451
Total Exports Domestic
20 18 11 11 7 11 14 8 11 10
Edible Products
Inedible Products
Total
Oct.D e c.
Jan.Mar.
AprilJune
JulySept.
234 247 221 120 141 144 221 237 294 305
716 694 453 471 472 380 371 297 302 310
536.2 546.8 445.0 324.2 397.8 363.2 442.3 534.9 501.8 546.7
155.6 137.5 127.5 77.0 113.4 89.6 69.1 135.7 139.5 128.8
129.0 142.7 118.4 61.5 103.6 82.9 117.0 128.3 126.1 137.0
131.8 144.3 132.8 101.5 100.4 99.3 129.6 146.9 115.4 155.6
119.8 122.3 66.4 84.2 80.4 91.4 126.7 124.0 120.8 125.2
1,067 1,082 941 1,111 1,190 1,021 927 968 1,100 1,201
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Consumption of Coconut Oil in End Products (Edible and Inedible) in the U.S. Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
74.4 78.2 47.0 44.1 51.5 39.9 49.4 49.3 55.4 51.2
77.4 79.5 54.3 44.8 48.1 44.7 44.0 40.6 41.3 49.3
77.5 86.5 60.1 52.8 59.4 50.8 52.7 45.5 50.8 56.8
80.4 81.0 60.2 46.1 54.3 43.0 54.6 42.5 59.3 50.6
86.6 79.7 68.6 41.9 54.5 41.4 51.4 48.3 53.9 52.3
88.8 82.0 54.6 49.4 47.0 45.4 56.5 43.3 46.4 46.7
76.0 76.5 55.1 49.9 49.3 36.9 49.1 46.5 50.7 48.9
88.4 71.4 47.9 48.3 50.3 33.3 56.2 45.6 51.8 49.6
65.1 61.6 44.9 66.9 53.7 46.2 54.7 48.4 45.9 50.3
74.6 62.1 49.6 53.4 49.4 41.5 44.1 50.3 54.3 47.8
85.1 59.8 50.3 43.9 50.0 43.6 44.3 44.4 56.1 41.8
95.0 59.9 47.9 48.0 42.1 38.8 43.0 45.5 49.4 38.5
969.3 878.0 640.7 589.5 609.6 505.5 600.0 550.2 615.4 583.7
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Stocks of Coconut Oil (Crude and Refined) in the U.S., on First of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
316.5 173.6 229.1 147.4 332.4 446.5 123.6 280.3 238.8 194.0
284.5 168.1 200.4 141.1 344.5 387.5 100.1 357.8 249.6 214.3
251.5 163.7 217.7 204.5 337.4 366.3 99.6 276.5 251.3 224.9
237.6 148.5 173.6 174.5 318.8 309.8 102.3 286.9 233.5 223.7
199.9 183.5 175.9 161.3 300.6 240.5 104.0 194.3 231.6 187.8
151.4 163.8 171.5 143.8 366.3 134.7 137.7 254.4 303.3 162.2
163.7 136.9 116.7 143.4 424.6 197.5 163.6 260.9 301.6 202.9
156.0 124.1 113.8 154.3 434.4 191.8 161.4 246.4 245.8 195.6
164.1 162.9 84.0 149.6 392.6 152.0 136.4 259.7 226.5 218.9
166.2 199.7 78.6 162.1 431.8 106.4 178.1 234.1 273.8 184.6
152.9 187.7 65.0 194.2 447.3 142.2 161.6 231.3 264.1 186.1
NA = Not available.
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Price of Coconut Oil (Crude) Tank Cars in New York Year
1
In Millions of Pounds
291.7 155.6 164.7 125.9 274.2 401.7 93.6 245.4 245.9 195.2
Preliminary.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Millions of Pounds
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
30.30 32.50 35.80 44.20 37.25 35.38 40.88 26.00 16.38 26.00
29.69 32.00 36.63 44.00 37.25 35.00 32.94 24.00 17.38 26.00
27.31 31.13 36.75 42.88 37.25 34.00 28.81 22.75 17.25 24.60
28.19 31.00 38.75 42.50 37.25 34.06 26.63 22.50 18.75 24.50
29.45 30.50 39.50 42.50 37.25 38.25 24.25 21.00 20.05 24.50
30.25 35.00 42.25 35.00 37.00 42.13 21.90 21.00 21.13 25.00
29.56 37.90 41.80 36.50 36.50 39.83 19.63 24.00 21.06 25.00
30.35 35.63 42.80 36.50 35.50 36.08 18.58 26.50 21.35 25.00
30.63 35.00 47.20 37.00 36.50 46.00 16.40 26.50 28.50 25.00
30.60 36.00 48.00 37.25 39.00 46.00 16.81 26.50 28.25 21.00
34.19 37.88 49.50 37.25 37.50 46.00 17.50 24.50 27.13 21.00
33.69 33.69 50.00 37.25 38.50 46.00 15.70 24.50 26.00 21.00
30.35 34.02 42.42 39.40 37.23 39.89 23.34 24.15 21.94 24.05
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
43
Coffee Coffee is one of the world’s most important cash commodities and is second in value only to crude oil. Coffee is the common name for any type of tree in the genus madder family. It is actually a tropical evergreen shrub that has the potential to grow 100 feet tall. The coffee tree grows in tropical regions between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn in areas with abundant rainfall, year-round warm temperatures averaging about 70 degrees Fahrenheit, and with no frost. The coffee plant will produce its first full crop of beans at about 5 years old and then be productive for about 15 years. The average coffee tree produces enough beans to make about 1 to 1 ½ pounds of roasted coffee per year. It takes approximately 4,000 handpicked green coffee beans to make a pound of coffee. Actually, wine was the first drink made from the coffee tree using the coffee cherries, honey, and water. In the 17th century, the first coffee house, also known as a “penny university” because of the price per cup, opened in London. The London Stock Exchange grew from one of these first coffee houses. Coffee is generally classified into two types of beans – arabica and robusta. The most widely produced coffee is arabica, which makes up about 70 percent of total production. It grows mostly at high altitudes of 600 to 2,000 meters, with Brazil and Colombia being the largest producers. Arabic coffee is traded on the New York Board of Trade. The stronger of the two types is robusta. It is grown at lower altitudes with the largest producers being Indonesia, West Africa, Brazil, and Vietnam. Robusta coffee is traded on the LIFFE exchange. Ninety percent of the world coffee trade is in green (unroasted) coffee beans. Seasonal factors have a significant influence on the price of coffee. There is no extreme peak in world production at any one time of the year, although coffee consumption declines by 12 percent or more below the year’s average in the warm summer months. Therefore, coffee imports and roasts both tend to decline in spring and summer and pick up again in fall and winter. Coffee futures are traded on the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F), the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE), the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), and the CSCE Division of the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). Options are traded on the BM&F, the LIFFE and the CSCE. Prices – Coffee prices in 2003 on the CSCE nearestfutures chart remained in a relatively narrow 25-cent trading range between about 50 cents and 75 cents per pound. Coffee prices in the past 3 years have been trading in a narrow and depressed price range with the all-time contract low of 41.50 cents posted in December 2001. Some grades of cash coffee prices in late 2001 hit lows not seen since the 1960s. As 2004 began, however, coffee prices were perking up and posted new 3-1/2 year highs. The main bullish factor was tighter world supplies of coffee due to a small 2003/4 harvest by Brazil that was completed in September 2003. Brazil is the world’s leading producer of coffee, and its harvest was hurt by the biennial production cycle and
44
dry weather. Coffee prices in 2003 were also boosted by the weak dollar. The very low prices for coffee seen in the past several years have created serious problems for coffee producers. When prices fall below the costs of production, there is little or no economic incentive to produce coffee. The result is that coffee trees are neglected or completely abandoned. When prices are low, producers cannot afford to hire the labor needed to maintain the trees and pick the crop at harvest. The result is that trees yield less due to reduced use of fertilizer and fewer employed coffee workers. One effect is a decline in the quality of the coffee that is produced. Higher quality Arabica coffee is often produced at higher altitudes, which entails higher costs. It is this coffee that is often abandoned. Although the pressure on producers is severe, the market should eventually come back into balance as supply falls to meet demand, thus boosting prices. In fact, Brazil’s 2003/4 crop was sharply lower, in part, because of poor yields caused by the neglect of groves during the long period of weak prices. Supply – World coffee production in 2003/4 (July-June) was forecast by the USDA at 105.3 million bags (60 kilograms or about 132.3 pounds), down sharply by 15% from the 2002/3 season. The main reason for the decline in world production in 2003/4 was a poor crop in Brazil, the world’s leading producer of coffee with roughly 40% of world production. Being in the Southern Hemisphere, the Brazilian coffee crop is harvested starting in May and extending for several weeks into what are the winter months. Brazil is subject to frosts and freezes and a major freeze occurs about every five years. These events occur most often in June, July and August. Brazilian production in 2003/4 is forecast at 32.0 million bags, down 5% from forecasts back in June 2003. Brazilian production spiked up to 51.60 million bags in 2002/3, depressing world coffee prices, but then production in 2003/4 plunged to the lowest yearly level in 4 years (since 30.80 million in 1999/00). Other key coffee-producing countries are Columbia (with 9% of world production), Vietnam (8%), and Indonesia (5%). In the US, the only areas that produce any significant amount of coffee are Puerto Rico and Hawaii. World stocks of coffee at the end of the 2003/4 season are forecast to plunge by 24% to 21.4 million bags from 28.2 million bags at the beginning of the marketing year. Demand – World coffee consumption in 2002/3 was estimated by the USDA at 114.0 million bags, up less than 1% from the 2001/02 level. The U.S. is the largest consumer of coffee with consumption of 18.9 million bags in 2002, down from 19.3 million in 2001. Trade – World coffee exports in 2003/4 are forecasted by the USDA to fall to a 3-year low of 85.87 million bags, down 5% from 90.86 million in 2002/3. The main reason for the decline in exports was simply the lower overall production of coffee in 2003/4. Brazil’s exports in 2003/4 fell sharply by 17% to 24.5 million bags as a result of the poor harvest. The US imports virtually all of its coffee consumption.
COFFEE World Supply and Distribution of Coffee Crop Year
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag)
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply
Total Exports
B ean Exports
Rst/Grn Exports
Soluble Exports
Domestic Use
Ending Stocks
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43
34,301 41,215 33,088 29,095 24,883 24,399 21,262 22,888 20,421 28,219
97,042 88,946 103,786 97,687 108,453 113,433 116,896 110,756 124,179 105,262
1,070 1,079 1,091 1,220 1,435 1,274 1,484 1,617 1,566 1,444
132,413 131,240 137,965 128,002 134,771 139,106 139,642 135,261 146,166 134,925
68,672 74,103 84,509 77,939 84,759 92,400 90,663 87,388 90,860 85,873
64,432 69,021 79,918 73,249 80,491 87,250 84,598 80,846 84,070 79,199
230 231 196 193 259 275 268 324 328 361
4,010 4,851 4,395 4,497 4,009 4,875 5,797 6,218 6,462 6,313
22,526 24,049 24,361 25,180 25,613 25,444 26,091 27,452 27,087 27,673
41,215 33,088 29,095 24,883 24,399 21,262 22,888 20,421 28,219 21,379
1
2
3
Preliminary.
Estimate.
Forecast.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Production of Green Coffee Crop Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
Brazil Colombia
28,000 16,800 28,000 23,500 35,600 30,800 34,100 35,100 51,600 32,000
Preliminary.
2
13,000 12,939 10,779 12,043 10,868 9,512 10,500 11,950 11,712 11,800
Estimate.
3
Costa El Rica Salvador
2,492 2,595 2,376 2,455 2,459 2,688 2,502 2,338 2,188 2,220 Forecast.
2,314 2,325 2,498 2,040 1,860 2,612 1,624 1,610 1,302 1,300
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag) Ethiopia
Guatemala
India
Indonesia
Ivory C o a st
Mexico
Uganda
Vietnam
World Total
3,800 3,800 3,800 3,833 3,867 3,833 3,683 3,756 3,750 3,250
3,500 3,827 4,141 4,200 4,300 4,364 4,564 3,530 3,802 3,802
3,060 3,717 3,417 3,805 4,415 4,870 5,020 5,010 4,588 4,587
6,400 5,800 7,900 7,000 6,950 6,660 6,495 6,160 6,140 5,700
3,733 2,900 5,333 4,080 2,217 5,700 4,333 3,033 1,817 1,300
4,030 5,400 5,300 4,950 5,010 6,193 4,800 4,200 4,350 4,650
3,100 4,200 4,297 3,032 3,640 3,097 3,205 3,166 2,800 3,200
3,500 3,917 5,750 7,000 7,500 11,010 15,333 12,833 11,167 11,833
97,024 88,946 103,788 97,652 108,453 113,433 116,896 110,756 124,179 105,262
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Exportable4 Production of Green Coffee Crop Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43
Brazil Colombia
18,300 6,300 17,000 12,000 23,100 18,000 21,000 21,400 38,100 18,000
11,564 11,439 9,279 10,483 9,418 7,982 8,970 10,360 10,222 10,295
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Ethiopia
2,252 2,360 2,130 2,150 2,154 2,347 2,157 1,988 1,883 1,895
2,079 2,055 2,268 1,805 1,633 2,445 1,473 1,466 1,164 1,162
2,300 2,300 2,300 2,250 2,234 2,200 2,016 1,906 1,900 1,400
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag) Guatemala Indonesia
Ivory C o a st
Kenya
Mexico
Uganda
Vietnam
World Total
3,220 3,527 3,856 3,850 3,900 3,964 4,139 3,110 3,382 3,382
3,687 2,852 5,282 4,025 2,159 5,640 4,271 2,969 1,752 1,300
1,562 1,789 1,115 1,005 1,125 1,662 841 846 897 1,029
3,030 4,340 4,450 3,955 4,050 5,138 3,822 3,200 3,400 3,700
3,040 4,140 4,217 2,952 3,580 3,017 3,124 3,086 2,720 3,120
---3,700 5,463 6,717 7,200 10,660 14,916 12,333 10,667 11,300
74,957 65,393 79,817 72,986 83,162 88,121 90,965 83,528 97,371 77,882
4,440 3,750 5,820 5,360 5,350 5,305 5,160 4,695 4,660 4,205
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Forecast. 4 Marketing year begins in October in some countries and April or July in others. Exportable production represents total harvested production minus estimated domestic consumption. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Green C o ffee Imp o rts in th e U n ited S tates Year
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 1
Brazil Colombia
5,335 4,253 3,376 2,850 2,302 1,852 2,331 2,688 4,659 2,569
P reliminary.
3,048 4,852 2,957 2,372 2,485 3,011 3,179 3,410 3,359 3,147
Costa Domi nican Ri ca Republi c
603 662 437 325 388 482 608 771 684 705
343 254 213 207 266 255 150 164 35 28
In Thousands of 60 Ki logram Bags (132.276 Lbs. Per Bag)
Ecuador
El Salvador
Ethi opia
785 753 671 969 745 665 431 347 419 164
868 1,344 1,274 376 284 401 500 501 550 1,209
31 23 192 215 109 137 308 183 77 91
S ource: B ureau of C ensus, U.S . Depart ment of C ommerce
Guatemala Indonesi a
Mexi co
Peru
Venezuela
Grand Total
1,489 1,812 1,815 1,403 1,637 1,748 1,921 1,563 2,148 2,377
2,993 3,042 2,947 2,516 2,887 3,734 2,935 2,471 3,182 3,610
610 526 158 249 621 441 652 771 762 857
108 104 444 295 89 445 65 146 372 32
18,849 21,673 18,023 14,913 15,886 17,947 18,848 18,998 20,559 21,625
536 581 542 558 513 1,246 1,325 1,273 724 692
45
COFFEE Monthly Green Coffee Imports in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,538 1,469 1,824 1,582 1,747 1,742 2,094 1,654 1,554 1,882
1,152 1,253 1,657 1,837 1,893 1,866 2,012 1,602 1,290 1,679
1,409 1,702 1,753 1,966 1,827 2,243 2,317 1,811 1,497 1,883
1,077 1,221 1,395 1,792 1,587 1,787 1,922 1,717 1,600 1,797
1,082 1,190 1,444 1,738 1,540 1,602 2,079 1,723 1,574 1,605
1,151 1,240 1,236 1,583 1,412 1,691 1,858 1,599 1,460 1,592
1,195 1,117 1,329 1,783 1,386 1,488 1,793 1,767 1,686 1,895
1,560 1,094 1,341 1,391 1,478 1,639 1,699 1,521 1,687 1,623
1,266 1,220 1,364 1,147 1,369 1,491 1,496 1,335 1,741 1,615
1,127 1,326 1,279 1,215 1,499 1,470 1,480 1,378 1,765 1,625
1,103 1,492 1,485 1,184 1,423 1,639 1,431 1,465 1,698 1,407
1,213 1,563 1,828 1,629 1,837 1,903 1,445 1,722 1,833 1,725
14,872 15,886 17,936 18,848 18,998 20,561 21,625 19,294 19,384 20,329
Preliminary.
2
132.276 pounds per bag.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Price of Braz ilian1 Coffee in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
71.42 162.81 127.54 127.28 179.83 99.43 97.68 62.38 42.56 49.14
80.14 161.07 144.05 160.21 177.78 91.72 91.51 62.50 42.79 48.54
84.72 171.48 140.99 179.75 154.84 88.90 89.93 60.35 48.79 43.77
87.14 166.54 132.92 183.73 141.11 86.14 86.46 55.11 49.90 48.71
118.37 161.72 134.76 209.62 124.89 96.29 87.23 57.19 45.19 51.06
136.43 145.22 125.44 184.21 104.09 91.69 78.32 51.86 42.96 47.11
211.81 139.68 106.93 158.52 96.04 78.13 79.89 46.43 43.58 49.64
192.38 149.54 108.28 158.25 101.92 76.67 70.57 46.49 40.55 52.88
212.73 130.26 103.10 167.77 92.76 70.43 71.14 42.42 44.46 55.19
191.21 127.23 105.77 152.12 91.32 78.74 72.28 38.63 45.28 53.51
172.83 125.33 103.76 149.07 96.67 98.41 68.95 42.28 48.37 54.15
159.73 110.46 103.71 171.12 100.28 109.47 64.39 41.60 46.70 56.92
143.24 145.95 119.77 166.80 121.81 88.84 79.86 50.60 45.09 50.89
And other Arabicas.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Cents Per Pound ----- Santos No. 4 (Jan. 1901 - July 1975) Brazilian, New York (Aug. 1975 - date) - - - Colombian Maniz, New York (Jan. 1948 - July 1953) Colombian Medellin, New York (Aug. 1953 - Dec. 1977) Colombian, New York (Jan. 1978 - date)
Exchange Closed Sep. 1941 - Sep. 1946
46
In Thousands of 60 Kilogram Bags2
COFFEE Average Monthly Retail 1 Price of Coffee in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
357.7 330.0 402.5 343.5 365.4 322.4 293.6 299.9
359.0 331.6 397.3 342.8 367.7 321.7 294.6 292.4
355.0 351.2 403.3 347.6 363.3 320.5 285.9 293.3
352.7 389.4 395.9 346.6 358.4 312.8 297.6 300.8
344.4 410.9 387.8 349.5 353.1 309.7 301.1 293.7
343.8 442.8 378.6 342.1 343.1 315.6 293.8 293.1
338.0 462.8 377.1 342.0 344.6 309.7 297.7 294.4
339.0 466.9 370.4 342.8 344.4 304.6 292.9 292.1
333.3 461.7 362.0 339.3 333.9 302.5 292.1 291.9
334.4 439.2 350.3 348.2 331.7 301.5 287.2 282.5
328.3 430.3 348.2 333.7 324.3 298.8 288.2 227.9
330.7 416.1 344.6 334.7 321.2 291.3 283.8 NA
343.0 411.1 376.5 342.7 345.9 309.3 292.4 287.5
Roasted in 13.1 to 20 ounce cans.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Average Price of Colombian Mild Arabicas1 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
119.08 146.18 184.21 123.07 130.13 75.33 63.46 69.68
134.94 188.62 190.59 116.92 124.73 76.70 65.64 69.60
160.60 212.96 166.07 117.05 119.51 76.94 71.16 61.82
134.31 199.22 158.17 114.02 112.67 78.25 70.17 66.12
142.56 318.50 146.33 123.95 110.31 80.92 63.44 67.56
133.25 227.15 135.83 121.45 100.30 74.38 60.86 65.01
135.39 190.57 125.03 107.05 101.67 69.70 59.60 67.84
137.68 193.46 129.45 105.28 91.87 73.50 58.98 68.65
123.30 196.29 117.56 97.77 89.98 68.80 62.49 68.37
127.77 169.40 115.01 103.69 90.25 62.88 66.54 66.59
129.41 161.38 121.74 126.76 84.01 65.72 72.83 67.04
126.41 183.32 123.96 140.35 75.81 62.57 67.92 69.38
133.73 198.92 142.83 116.45 102.60 72.14 65.26 67.31
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Average Price of Other Mild Arabicas1 in the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
109.38 131.83 175.04 110.99 109.17 64.98 57.34 65.22
122.71 167.20 175.87 103.24 101.17 67.00 60.51 67.60
119.05 193.82 154.82 103.23 98.26 65.88 66.38 61.66
122.01 204.43 147.08 99.69 92.76 65.68 65.78 65.35
128.56 264.50 134.35 109.10 91.76 68.94 58.45 66.47
124.46 212.55 121.56 104.21 84.10 63.79 55.12 61.34
120.47 186.52 113.86 90.85 85.20 58.47 53.07 62.32
122.49 185.17 119.89 87.64 74.52 59.68 52.02 63.60
114.05 184.38 108.07 81.06 73.83 57.71 57.58 65.50
120.62 161.45 107.07 92.22 75.43 56.23 64.05 62.58
119.90 154.15 113.84 112.74 70.47 58.96 70.15 62.36
115.01 174.25 115.54 123.56 64.81 55.63 64.75 65.01
119.89 185.02 132.25 101.54 85.12 61.91 60.43 64.08
In Cents Per Pound
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
91.99 67.66 86.03 81.65 53.62 31.00 22.88 42.75
98.99 76.65 85.79 77.68 49.41 31.96 24.46 42.35
91.99 81.31 84.67 72.70 47.26 30.96 29.77 38.26
91.45 78.48 90.60 68.89 45.21 28.59 30.35 38.68
92.10 95.74 92.64 68.28 45.19 29.71 29.43 38.90
86.46 91.94 84.55 66.20 43.72 29.33 29.26 35.33
78.14 82.52 78.40 62.28 41.93 27.59 29.31 36.71
80.16 76.92 79.98 63.80 38.94 25.86 28.74 37.92
74.83 77.43 80.88 60.44 39.47 23.79 33.31 38.76
72.97 76.90 80.36 59.25 36.55 21.26 34.44 37.32
70.51 78.20 80.40 64.10 33.34 22.03 39.38 36.05
63.08 84.65 82.82 66.40 30.78 23.57 38.68 37.59
82.72 80.70 83.93 67.64 42.12 27.14 30.83 38.39
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Jan.
Average Price of Composite 19791 in the United States
1
In Cents Per Pound
F eb.
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Year
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
Jan.
Average Price of Robustas 19761 in the United States
1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
100.33 100.03 130.61 97.63 82.15 49.19 43.46 54.04
110.50 121.89 130.78 92.36 76.15 49.39 44.30 54.07
105.89 137.47 119.93 89.41 73.49 48.52 49.49 49.61
107.09 142.20 119.66 85.72 69.53 47.31 50.19 51.87
110.24 180.44 114.23 89.51 69.23 49.38 47.30 53.19
105.79 155.38 103.84 85.41 64.56 46.54 45.56 48.90
99.97 135.04 97.32 78.21 64.09 43.07 44.70 50.89
102.73 132.63 101.25 77.22 57.59 42.77 42.79 52.22
96.52 132.51 95.82 71.94 57.31 41.17 47.96 54.10
98.56 121.09 95.01 76.36 56.40 42.21 50.79 51.72
97.14 118.16 98.26 88.22 52.18 44.24 54.69 49.81
90.04 130.02 100.73 95.63 48.27 43.36 51.68 52.44
102.07 133.91 108.95 85.64 64.25 45.60 47.74 51.91
I CO monthly and composite indicator prices on the New York Market, 1979 I CA Agreement basis.
Source: Coffee Publications, I nc.
47
COFFEE Average Open Interest of Coffee 'C' Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
54,796 34,455 28,430 38,516 30,042 36,194 47,829 48,914 57,897 69,508
50,230 35,391 28,224 42,888 30,539 36,693 50,620 53,050 66,825 71,682
53,713 36,925 28,127 39,092 30,211 41,294 50,565 58,111 66,798 76,934
57,226 34,387 28,793 32,644 32,617 43,846 53,662 57,722 66,207 77,954
58,574 34,615 28,394 30,324 36,345 45,947 49,692 53,481 66,289 72,716
54,589 34,462 25,096 22,552 36,651 45,675 50,293 58,311 68,994 72,155
43,056 30,156 26,188 21,497 37,531 45,411 45,513 57,888 69,197 72,110
35,052 27,448 25,799 19,818 30,074 46,725 40,177 57,243 69,635 68,259
35,800 27,800 23,929 22,788 30,429 46,255 40,133 55,674 70,079 73,809
34,258 28,408 26,202 25,109 32,940 47,956 42,906 58,345 73,753 79,038
31,046 24,505 27,599 23,636 31,677 46,271 43,187 55,317 73,431 81,253
31,134 26,412 27,201 28,577 32,816 46,764 45,086 53,953 69,343 76,628
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of Coffee 'C' Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
188,508 169,250 203,369 242,719 155,774 216,810 158,962 189,977 201,327 205,420
219,455 191,352 186,526 280,014 194,435 201,670 232,174 221,775 279,966 283,317
208,113 213,326 152,797 267,369 186,712 252,841 166,970 167,466 229,764 169,611
284,734 156,191 197,442 223,330 194,732 243,630 224,266 236,757 295,701 334,188
380,119 163,248 137,454 219,214 157,935 237,968 177,753 182,621 159,670 255,935
304,542 186,550 158,929 186,227 189,768 243,164 218,467 220,708 225,177 270,424
210,479 162,562 171,800 135,664 165,868 187,019 198,975 134,809 174,567 237,210
196,685 161,076 196,991 136,807 189,047 232,817 175,868 250,151 254,563 278,746
159,574 165,337 136,054 142,610 156,556 151,724 119,304 100,443 232,255 332,473
177,424 152,959 196,696 151,171 172,956 270,013 163,399 153,739 250,483 309,930
184,172 157,240 135,305 145,610 197,776 244,258 187,230 229,495 236,307 314,182
142,713 123,923 166,213 163,446 133,471 177,309 111,593 111,430 178,728 219,595
2,658,073 2,003,014 2,039,576 2,294,181 2,095,030 2,659,223 2,134,961 2,199,371 2,718,508 3,211,031
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
48
Coke Coke is the hard and porous residue left after certain types of bituminous coals are heated to high temperatures (up to 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit) for about 17 hours. It is blackish-gray and has a metallic luster. The residue is mostly carbon. Coke is used as a reducing agent in the smelting of pig iron and the production of steel. Petroleum coke is made from the heavy tar-like residue of the petroleum refining process. It is used primarily to generate electricity. Supply – Coke production in the US rose to 285.686
Salient Statistics of Coke in the United States
million barrels in 2002 from 298.261 million in 2001. That was well below the production record of 369.305 million barrels posted in 1957. US stocks at coke plants (Dec 31) fell to 606,000 tons in 2002 from 981,000 tons in 2001. Trade – US exports fell sharply to 594,000 tons from 1.069 million tons in 2001. Most of those exports were to Canada. US imports rose to 3.096 million tons in 2002 from 2.340 million tons in 2001. About one-half of the imports were from Japan.
In Thousands of Short Tons Producer and Distributor -------- Exports -------- -------- Imports -------Stocks D e c. 3 1 Canada Total Ja p a n Total
---------------------- Coke and Breez e Production at Coke Plants -------------------------------------------- By Census Division ------------------------Year
Middle Atlantic
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
8,994 6,371 5,869 6,095 W W
East North East South Central Central
8,882 9,224 10,115 10,835 10,272 7,952
3,393 2,922 2,821 2,558 1,979 1,925
Other
Total
C o ke Total
Breeze Total
Consumption2
2,080 2,766 2,448 2,608 7,893 7,332
23,349 21,283 21,253 22,096 20,144 17,209
22,116 20,041 20,016 20,808 18,949 16,099
1,233 1,242 1,237 1,289 1,195 1,109
24,017 23,108 22,423 23,242 20,293 18,977
1,294 933 852 1,054 981 606
498 830 686 795 793 493
832 1,129 898 1,146 1,069 594
1,018 2,062 2,012 1,884 1,508 1,508
1,565 3,834 3,224 3,781 2,340 3,096
1
Preliminary. 2 Equal to production plus imports minus the change in producer and distributor stocks minus exports. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production of Petroleum Coke in the United States Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousands of Barrels
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
19,798 20,929 22,312 21,502 23,970 24,543 23,420
17,594 18,968 20,084 20,017 21,112 22,849 20,030
20,603 21,998 22,148 21,654 23,299 23,529 23,810
21,274 21,834 21,444 21,161 23,713 23,850 23,768
22,210 21,790 21,410 21,785 42,465 24,713 24,831
21,052 20,856 20,943 22,095 23,345 23,305 24,054
21,619 21,790 21,741 23,321 23,838 24,556 26,080
22,229 22,469 22,180 22,835 23,339 23,939 25,746
21,630 21,526 21,249 22,455 22,321 23,465 24,072
21,782 21,234 22,166 22,121 23,306 22,527 24,588
20,313 20,837 21,695 22,628 23,350 23,497
21,827 22,258 22,866 24,262 24,203 24,913
251,931 256,489 260,238 265,836 298,261 285,686 288,479
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Coal Receipts and Average Prices at Coke Plants in the United States
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
---------------------------- Coal Receipts at Coke Plants ---------------------------
---------------- Average Price of Coal Receipts at Coke Plants -----------------
------------- By Census Division, In Thousands of Short Tons -----------Middle East North East South Atlantic Central Central Other Total
------------------ By Census Division, In Dollars per Short Ton ----------------Middle East North East South Atlantic Central Central Other Total
11,555 8,430 7,784 7,971 W W
Preliminary.
10,825 12,442 13,524 14,020 13,084 10,657
4,290 3,777 3,571 3,209 2,678 2,335
W = Withheld proprietary data.
2,880 3,705 3,276 3,520 10,622 9,244
29,550 28,354 28,155 28,720 26,384 22,236
47.05 44.16 44.33 42.89 W W
49.12 48.39 47.74 45.62 47.53 52.88
------------------- Coal Carboniz ed at Coke Plants -------------------
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
W W W W W W
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------ Stocks at Coke Plants, Dec. 31 -----------------------------------
---------------------------- By Census Division ----------------------------- -------------------------- By Census Division ---------------------------Middle East North East South Middle East North East South Atlantic Central Central Other Total Atlantic Central Central Other Total
11,655 8,401 7,799 8,129 W W
Preliminary.
11,366 12,311 13,404 13,971 12,981 10,703
4,299 3,736 3,584 3,290 2,608 2,319
W = Withheld proprietary data.
47.61 46.06 45.85 44.38 46.42 51.27
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Coal Carboniz ed and Coke and Breez e Stocks at Coke Plants in the U.S.
Year
47.72 46.43 45.28 44.74 47.69 50.03
2,883 3,741 3,321 3,549 10,486 9,515
30,203 28,189 28,108 28,939 26,075 22,537
297 160 69 148 W W
509 526 500 628 637 492
159 176 157 166 266 288
465 215 277 255 607 383
1,430 1,077 1,003 1,197 1,510 1,163
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
C o ke Total
Breeze Total
1,294 933 852 1,054 981 606
135 144 150 143 88 141
49
Copper The word copper comes from name of the Mediterranean island Cyprus that was a primary source of the metal. Dating back more than 10,000 years, copper is man’s oldest metal. From the Pyramid of Cheops in Egypt, archeologists have recovered a portion of a water plumbing system whose copper tubing was found in serviceable condition after more than 5,000 years. Copper is one of the most widely used industrial metals because it is an excellent conductor of electricity, has strong corrosion-resistance properties, and is very ductile. It is also used to produce the two alloys of brass (a copperzinc alloy) and bronze (a copper-tin alloy), both of which are far harder and stronger than the pure metal. Electrical uses of copper account for about 75% of total copper usage and building construction is the single largest market. Copper is biostatic, meaning that bacteria will not grow on its surface, and is therefore used in air-conditioning systems, food processing surfaces, and doorknobs to prevent the spread of disease. Today the copper content of US coins is 2.6% for the penny, 75% for the nickel, and 91.67% for the dime, quarter, and half dollar. Known worldwide resources of copper are estimated at nearly 5.8 trillion pounds, of which only about 0.7 trillion (12%) have been mined. Copper futures and options are traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the COMEX Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Copper futures are traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The Comex copper futures contract calls for the delivery of 25,000 pounds of Grade 1 electrolyte copper and is priced in terms of cents per pound.
Prices – Comex copper futures prices traded sideways in the first half of 2003 but then staged an impressive rally late in 2003 as the US economy surged. Demand for copper has a strong correlation with US economic growth and with the US building industry. Copper prices were also boosted by the weakness in the dollar. Copper prices closed 2003 at a 6-1/2 year high of $1.04 per pound. That is, however, still well below the 13-year high on the copper nearest-futures chart of $1.46 posted in July 1995 and the record high of $1.65 posted in December 1988. Supply – World production of copper in 2001, the latest reporting year, rose by 3.8% to 13.700 million metric tons from 13.200 million in 2000. The world’s largest producer of copper is Chile with 34.6% of world production, followed by the US with 9.8%, Indonesia with 7.7%, and Australia with 6.3%. US production of refined copper in 2003 was on track to fall to 1.3 million tons from 1.508 million in 2002. Demand – US consumption of copper in 2001 fell to 2.620 million metric tons from 3.030 million in 2000. The primary consumer of copper in the US is wire rod mills with 74% of usage, followed by brass mills with 24% of usage. Trade – US exports of copper in 2003 were set to rebound sharply higher from the depressed levels of 22,500 metric tons in 2001 and 26,600 metric tons in 2002. US imports of copper in 2003 were set to fall slightly from 927,000 metric tons in 2002.
Wo rld Min e P ro d u ctio n o f C o p p er (C o n ten t o f Ore) Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 20012
Australi a
Canada3
Chi le
378.0 402.0 415.6 397.8 547.3 558.0 607.0 739.0 829.0 869.0
768.6 732.6 616.8 726.3 688.4 659.5 705.8 620.1 633.9 632.8
1,932.7 2,055.4 2,219.9 2,488.6 3,115.8 3,392.0 3,686.8 4,391.2 4,602.4 4,739.0
P reliminary. 2 E stimate. 3 R ecov erable. S ource: U.S . Geolog ical S urvey (US GS )
1
In Thousands of Metri c Tons
Chi na
Indonesi a
Mexi co
Peru
Poland
Russia4
South Afri ca
Uni ted States3
Zambi a
World Total
334 345 396 445 439 511 504 533 613 588
280.8 298.6 322.2 443.6 507.5 529.1 780.8 766.0 1,012.1 1,050.0
279.0 301.2 294.7 333.6 340.7 390.5 384.6 381.2 364.6 367.4
345.6 355.0 395.9 409.7 484.2 506.5 483.3 536.4 553.9 722.0
331.9 382.6 378.0 384.2 421.9 414.8 436.2 464.0 456.2 474.0
699 584 573 525 523 505 500 530 570 620
176.1 166.3 160.1 161.6 152.6 153.1 166.0 144.3 137.1 141.9
1,760 1,800 1,820 1,850 1,920 1,940 1,860 1,600 1,440 1,340
429.5 396.2 373.2 316.0 334.0 352.9 315.0 270.0 241.2 299.3
9,470 9,430 9,490 10,000 11,000 11,500 12,100 12,700 13,200 13,700
4
F ormerly part of the U.S.S.R .; data not reported separately until 1992.
Commodity Exchange Inc. Warehouse Stocks of Copper, on First of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
74.0 27.0 24.0 29.5 91.5 93.9 91.6 64.7 269.2 399.3
56.7 18.7 12.1 19.0 100.7 101.8 95.6 79.3 284.8 395.2
49.8 17.7 12.8 24.8 112.3 112.3 95.6 90.0 304.0 373.7
37.2 9.0 13.9 43.6 112.6 123.1 95.9 105.1 314.1 362.7
31.6 11.5 20.7 49.5 107.6 132.6 865.2 126.5 326.0 351.2
30.4 7.0 13.2 43.0 84.8 131.7 75.0 150.9 337.4 NA
36.0 13.1 7.4 46.3 63.5 133.7 73.6 165.1 355.7 320.5
37.4 16.7 17.3 30.0 55.7 120.2 73.2 176.1 374.6 310.6
28.5 16.5 22.1 46.5 56.6 108.8 62.8 186.8 375.9 303.9
17.9 11.2 21.7 61.5 67.7 97.5 62.3 199.6 380.3 299.0
20.3 6.1 30.8 67.8 69.4 90.9 63.4 211.0 381.6 294.4
21.5 5.4 38.5 79.8 74.7 90.9 64.9 236.5 382.8 288.1
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
50
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
COPPER S alien t S tatistics o f C o p p er in th e U n ited S tates
In Thousands of Metric Tons -- S to c k s , D e c 3 1 --
Ap p aren t
------ Imp o rts3 ------ ------ E xp o rts -----Bli ster & --- C o n su mp tio n --Refi ned Pri mary SeconOre, Pri mary Materi al & Old ConcenProducers Copper in Total dary Re- Unmanutrate6 Refi ned7 COMEX (Refi ned) Soluti on (Reported) Copper8 New covered4 factured Refi ned
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - N e w C o p p e r P ro d u c e d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20001 20012
--- F ro m D o mestic Ores --Refi nMInes Smelters eri es
1,760 1,800 1,850 1,850 1,920 1,940 1,860 1,600 1,450 1,340
1,180 1,270 1,310 1,250 1,300 1,440 1,490 1,090 W W
Forei gn Ores3
1,110 1,210 1,280 1,300 1,290 1,370 1,290 1,110 865 808
96 89 64 91 147 113 238 196 163 192
1,710 1,790 1,840 1,930 2,010 2,070 2,140 1,890 1,590 1,630
555 543 500 443 428 498 466 381 357 316
593 637 763 825 961 999 1,190 1,280 1,350 1,400
289 343 470 429 543 632 683 837 1,060 991
266 227 261 239 195 127 37 63 107 45
177 217 157 217 169 93 86 25 94 23
96 67 24 22 27 83 85 83 59 244
205 153 119 163 146 314 532 565 334 952
P reliminary. 2 E stimate. 3 A lso from matte, etc., refinery reports. 4 F rom old scrap only. 5 F or consumption. (copper content). 7 I ng ots, bars, etc. 8 Old scrap only. S ource: U.S . Geolog ical S urvey (US GS )
1
C o n su mp tio n o f R efin ed C o p p er3 in th e U n ited S tates Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 20012
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - B y - P ro d u c t s - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Wire Ingots & Cakes Cathodes Bars Ingot Bars & Slabs Bi llets Other4
1,974.9 2,130.0 2,410.0 2,250.0 2,320.0 2,490.0 2,600.0 2,710.0 2,730.0 2,360.0
W W W W W W W W W W
20.0 37.7 37.3 31.3 26.8 29.4 30.7 24.4 23.8 24.0
43.7 55.5 73.2 75.9 80.8 81.1 76.2 79.3 101.0 95.9
W W W W W W W W W W
6
166 146 167 171 173 180 160 138 122 98
2,178 2,360 2,680 2,530 2,610 2,790 2,890 2,980 3,030 2,620
B lister
In Thousands of Metri c Tons
------------------------------ B y C lass o f C o n su mer -----------------------------Wi re Rod Brass Chemi acl Ingot Mi scelMi lls Mi lls Plants Makers Foundri es laneous5
139.6 136.0 164.0 181.0 181.0 194.0 184.0 166.0 175.0 143.0
2,311 2,510 2,690 2,540 2,830 2,940 3,030 3,130 3,130 2,500
1,675.0 1,819.1 2,060.0 1,950.0 1,980.0 2,140.0 2,170.0 2,230.0 2,240.0 1,940.0
458.5 503.0 568.0 533.0 588.0 597.0 659.0 691.0 723.0 623.0
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
3.0 2.2 4.5 7.7 3.6 4.2 5.4 4.5 4.6 4.6
15.0 10.2 11.1 15.6 15.8 16.6 19.2 21.2 24.3 22.8
25.8 27.6 30.4 31.4 28.6 29.9 31.8 29.8 32.5 30.9
Total Consumpti on
2,178.2 2,360.0 2,680.0 2,530.0 2,610.0 2,790.0 2,890.0 2,980.0 3,030.0 2,620.0
P reliminary. 2 E stimate. 3 P rimary & secondary. 4 1991 to date include Wirebars and B illets. 5 I ncludes iron and steel plants, primary smelters producing alloy s other than copper, consumers of copper powder and copper shot, and other manufacturers. W - Withheld proprietary data. S ource: U.S . Geolog ical S urvey (US GS )
1
London Metals Exchange Warehouse Stocks of Copper, at End of Month
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
597.6 309.9 355.1 194.2 365.7 646.9 807.3 349.9 855.5 833.8
554.5 280.9 348.4 216.2 376.0 695.9 824.1 327.9 910.9 825.9
504.3 239.9 322.3 177.2 339.5 722.2 755.4 400.5 950.9 813.2
446.4 204.9 303.9 145.8 262.3 748.2 697.8 445.2 973.8 768.2
379.0 197.9 309.7 133.0 261.8 776.6 605.7 431.3 958.3 740.8
350.9 166.5 263.0 128.3 249.3 754.8 553.4 464.7 892.1 665.8
338.9 151.5 227.6 234.9 260.9 769.6 487.8 651.9 893.6 612.6
367.8 163.1 275.5 278.7 307.7 789.0 449.2 661.2 896.6 620.3
359.3 178.2 240.7 332.8 414.2 774.0 401.5 729.0 870.6 580.4
333.1 193.6 122.1 344.6 460.6 793.8 380.9 737.2 863.2 516.5
318.4 222.2 96.1 338.8 511.9 779.7 349.4 780.4 862.8 467.0
302.2 364.8 119.6 337.8 590.1 790.5 357.4 799.5 855.9
Preliminary.
Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
Copper Refined from Scrap in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
33.3 30.9 25.0 35.9 25.9 20.1 19.4 15.4 7.1 5.8
28.3 30.6 23.7 30.0 28.6 21.8 18.6 14.2 6.2 3.9
37.9 36.0 25.5 36.4 23.7 23.7 25.8 15.2 7.2 5.7
30.7 32.7 22.5 32.6 31.0 17.6 22.5 13.4 7.6 3.9
37.1 33.7 26.8 35.4 17.8 16.2 22.1 12.8 8.2 4.1
28.7 28.2 30.9 30.8 21.4 17.5 15.4 13.2 7.8 4.9
26.9 18.7 24.4 26.4 24.2 21.2 11.7 13.9 7.0 4.9
33.0 25.1 25.0 28.4 23.9 18.2 19.7 13.5 7.6 3.9
38.7 25.4 26.8 34.3 23.8 21.3 14.1 12.3 7.1 4.2
27.0 25.0 30.6 36.5 31.8 21.0 14.3 10.2 6.3 4.5
34.3 26.2 25.9 24.6 23.2 17.7 19.7 6.4 5.1 4.4
37.3 24.4 26.3 29.3 26.3 20.0 15.6 5.7 3.9
391.7 319.0 333.0 383.0 336.0 230.0 208.0 154.0 81.1 54.7
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
51
COPPER
Average Open Interest of Copper Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
65,518 52,632 47,771 54,468 69,607 76,861 82,289 77,952 72,823 81,820
65,446 50,770 45,706 56,022 72,302 73,109 73,778 76,721 79,806 81,499
66,177 47,267 42,732 58,205 67,154 75,318 68,026 78,034 79,156 72,484
59,346 47,793 46,771 50,574 68,670 70,534 75,520 83,647 75,229 85,485
63,825 50,089 47,284 56,740 65,033 76,341 69,531 72,970 74,350 77,704
60,383 48,200 52,558 56,774 66,002 70,842 63,786 85,495 80,981 81,509
51,616 40,968 56,564 47,767 63,271 75,640 71,389 83,690 82,661 82,868
46,855 37,744 56,549 44,632 61,116 70,084 79,565 88,782 102,056 94,517
56,344 33,709 55,408 49,612 60,520 80,188 83,546 87,004 99,225 92,768
59,060 36,476 58,124 54,912 62,944 72,240 73,609 88,166 99,470 106,924
59,158 38,475 61,031 67,026 67,984 69,179 74,161 85,809 89,213 103,218
51,078 35,996 55,807 67,502 76,846 69,819 70,349 68,981 79,218 90,310
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
Volume of Trading of Copper Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
197,959 242,760 184,431 193,543 172,133 159,147 220,488 240,588 217,598 232,921
233,016 267,883 173,689 221,504 223,117 288,394 276,374 246,052 233,704 269,806
231,239 232,229 157,553 190,000 197,652 230,716 195,668 247,722 164,747 249,306
207,963 242,302 210,836 218,607 264,061 296,162 261,971 279,348 254,259 274,079
247,143 195,554 200,469 164,728 175,956 224,221 232,971 260,697 218,091 221,364
297,393 274,587 255,172 238,918 217,316 319,157 241,854 317,001 267,201 301,709
188,644 167,836 150,445 191,609 202,596 244,567 187,453 159,394 263,395 252,713
242,393 213,110 174,351 198,156 213,541 267,325 283,328 298,639 303,642 324,175
219,788 169,689 166,537 197,746 196,355 220,958 171,080 129,622 195,637 196,481
208,957 181,945 250,420 202,615 195,255 193,628 243,342 190,469 232,731 230,413
290,585 185,141 227,800 203,376 250,986 231,399 266,051 337,589 276,492 363,865
178,887 146,378 160,216 135,368 174,642 177,288 197,544 149,520 179,789 172,438
2,737,967 2,519,414 2,311,919 2,356,170 2,483,610 2,852,962 2,778,124 2,856,641 2,807,286 3,089,270
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
52
In Contracts
Jan.
COPPER
Cents Per Pound ----- Electrolytic, New York (Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1983) Electrolytic, United States (Jan. 1984 - date) - - - Scrap No. 1, New York (Jan. 1927 - Dec. 1955) Scrap No. 2, New York (Jan. 1956 - Apr. 1988) Scrap No. 2, Chicago (May 1988 - Mar. 2002)
Producers' Price of Electrolytic (Wirebar) Copper, Delivered to U.S. Destinations Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
95.65 151.91 130.09 120.29 88.88 77.07 96.83 95.70 81.79 78.62
99.13 146.00 128.75 121.02 87.52 75.96 94.41 94.01 84.23 80.21
101.76 151.14 130.20 126.50 91.69 74.50 91.63 92.07 86.60 78.87
99.87 146.00 131.29 121.70 93.54 78.79 89.32 88.27 85.11 75.60
112.30 139.80 135.33 127.25 90.02 81.07 94.80 88.85 85.22 78.56
120.58 149.51 116.55 129.57 86.90 77.23 92.74 84.58 88.23 80.44
123.68 150.00 103.63 121.94 87.37 88.02 95.81 81.44 84.44 81.55
121.38 149.77 104.14 114.11 85.30 87.88 98.67 79.34 79.82 83.51
132.53 144.14 102.51 107.14 87.62 92.89 103.49 77.41 79.71 85.34
130.91 140.00 101.80 105.08 84.26 91.26 99.63 75.21 80.16 91.50
141.92 148.48 112.58 99.53 83.51 91.10 95.25 78.13 84.57 96.47
148.86 143.78 114.78 91.39 78.30 93.35 98.92 79.83 75.56 103.72
119.05 146.74 117.86 115.55 87.09 84.09 95.96 84.57 82.62 84.53
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Dealers' Buying Price of No. 2 Heavy Copper Scrap in Chicago1 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
50.80 89.48 87.17 68.73 53.26 36.32 50.00 51.62 41.00 41.00
56.11 90.79 82.90 71.63 52.58 36.00 50.00 49.16 41.00 41.00
59.61 89.39 83.24 77.50 53.09 36.00 50.00 49.00 41.00 41.00
62.00 91.75 83.29 79.18 54.00 36.00 49.15 49.81 41.00 41.00
64.86 85.91 82.95 77.33 52.60 39.60 49.00 50.00 41.00 41.00
72.32 88.73 71.48 78.19 49.64 41.77 49.00 50.00 41.00 41.00
76.40 92.32 61.43 72.64 48.00 41.00 49.30 49.14 41.00 41.00
74.30 92.65 62.00 70.24 47.71 45.09 52.65 44.00 41.00 41.00
75.69 92.70 62.00 65.67 46.00 46.19 54.60 44.00 41.00 41.00
76.45 90.64 63.00 63.74 44.00 48.00 55.00 43.48 41.00 48.17
78.10 92.00 64.84 61.31 40.00 48.00 52.65 41.45 41.00 56.00
82.95 92.00 66.00 58.43 40.00 48.67 51.00 41.47 41.00 56.00
69.13 90.70 72.53 70.38 48.41 41.90 51.04 46.93 41.00 44.10
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
53
COPPER Imports of Refined Copper into the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
28.7 34.9 43.1 55.4 62.8 64.7 84.9 105.0 82.5 60.7
33.6 30.0 41.2 48.0 49.6 53.2 67.8 91.6 87.8 87.8
49.8 37.1 48.2 43.6 59.9 68.1 85.5 90.1 53.0 69.9
36.8 36.9 49.6 43.6 64.7 59.9 92.1 94.4 92.6 78.5
36.1 36.5 56.8 61.0 57.6 62.3 83.6 70.3 59.9 72.7
46.8 37.9 44.6 42.0 52.8 63.8 84.5 72.7 76.2 62.3
35.6 31.5 53.8 53.1 45.0 73.0 89.4 61.7 80.3 74.0
34.4 31.8 64.8 73.3 51.7 84.5 83.0 66.3 90.5 78.1
34.7 28.7 62.3 53.8 71.1 90.3 98.6 83.5 69.9 81.7
62.4 38.7 46.1 55.0 52.7 81.0 112.0 71.0 79.0 82.0
35.9 44.4 61.8 53.4 62.0 59.0 100.0 110.0 82.0
36.2 40.3 47.2 42.0 63.4 77.5 73.7 74.4 73.0
470.0 429.0 543.0 632.0 683.0 837.0 1,060.0 991.0 927.0 897.2
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Preliminary.
Exports of Refined Copper from the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
13.0 11.1 13.7 11.1 6.2 2.4 1.6 1.2 .4 2.5
10.2 24.0 16.5 9.8 12.1 1.1 5.3 .9 .7 .8
10.7 25.6 12.7 6.5 12.2 1.8 22.0 .8 3.2 1.5
6.8 18.2 12.3 6.5 7.5 1.3 12.2 1.9 .7 .6
14.8 23.4 10.8 71.9 7.8 1.6 18.1 1.0 .8 15.9
9.1 38.9 10.7 8.2 6.4 4.2 12.8 .8 6.8 23.0
15.6 16.3 15.7 6.9 7.5 1.6 6.7 1.7 7.7 5.1
10.9 16.6 17.7 7.5 6.4 1.5 4.4 2.6 2.6 4.1
15.4 12.1 14.5 6.3 5.8 1.2 2.9 1.2 1.3 4.3
15.9 9.0 16.4 7.4 5.0 1.4 4.3 4.6 .6 4.6
13.1 12.5 12.8 8.2 3.6 3.7 1.2 5.3 .5
21.1 9.5 16.0 8.5 6.2 3.3 2.1 .6 1.5
157.0 217.0 170.0 93.3 86.2 25.2 93.6 22.5 26.6 74.9
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Preliminary.
Stocks of Refined Copper in the United States, on First of Month Year
1994 19952 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
103.0 55.8 120.0 88.2 281.5 562.6 619.2 383.8 1,045.1 1,119.8
87.7 39.6 131.4 98.8 282.2 593.1 620.8 408.4 1,096.2 109.7
83.6 37.0 125.5 104.4 312.7 614.6 619.5 416.2 1,132.4 1,038.8
72.8 22.6 123.1 116.0 315.7 653.5 582.9 481.9 1,155.3 1,042.1
70.7 33.1 126.3 117.9 304.5 676.6 537.0 552.6 1,175.0 998.3
70.4 30.8 107.9 121.7 308.6 687.8 508.8 585.7 1,158.8 959.8
73.3 27.0 102.8 122.9 306.2 668.4 467.8 626.7 1,126.7 891.8
81.1 50.0 106.2 148.8 319.0 657.2 418.0 733.1 1,132.2 848.9
74.6 60.6 104.7 177.1 334.1 639.7 397.7 767.4 1,123.0 855.6
66.5 71.1 68.0 197.9 367.4 611.2 394.3 895.6 1,123.7 825.2
52.7 69.4 76.0 227.6 407.2 626.5 379.1 916.6 1,110.5 760.9
53.6 73.4 77.5 253.3 444.6 608.2 344.2 985.7 1,109.0
Recoverable copper content. 1 Preliminary. Beginning January 1999, includes Consumers.
2
New reporting method beginning January 1995, includes Comex, London Metal Exchange, and Refiners. Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
Stocks of Refined Copper Outside the United States, on First of Month Year
1994 1995 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1,075.0 611.6 560.2 405.4 580.8 922.6 983.8 795.0 1,241.3 1,238.8
1,095.5 655.8 566.0 469.5 512.4 944.3 1,034.9 999.5 1,273.5 2,147.6
1,046.8 622.2 552.5 476.3 487.3 960.3 1,040.7 986.4 1,291.5 1,188.0
984.9 577.9 517.5 445.7 438.1 963.0 1,011.4 971.2 1,370.4 1,216.3
913.7 537.0 498.7 413.5 371.1 990.5 988.6 995.7 1,391.1 1,147.4
859.5 525.6 563.9 402.4 368.0 1,008.3 880.9 969.4 1,399.4 1,109.8
843.7 494.9 507.9 408.3 335.7 993.3 866.0 1,000.8 1,289.0 1,129.2
839.7 464.7 476.6 489.6 324.0 990.0 857.3 1,091.0 1,342.6 1,139.9
874.6 465.7 544.4 550.9 387.2 1,017.0 837.0 1,108.7 1,369.1 1,150.9
870.7 467.7 499.5 607.7 468.0 996.9 826.7 1,083.3 1,321.1 1,140.5
835.1 481.4 391.8 574.5 506.9 1,001.5 784.1 1,021.0 1,219.7 1,164.5
818.4 503.5 362.0 553.3 509.0 992.0 764.8 1,104.5 1,224.5
Recoverable copper content. 1 Preliminary. 2 New reporting method beginning January 1995, includes London Metal Exchange and Refiners. Beginning January 1999, also includes Shanghai Metal Exchange, Consumers and Other. Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
54
COPPER Production of Refined Copper in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
160.9 202.7 210.8 206.0 214.0 185.0 157.0 155.0 134.0 124.0
150.1 185.5 197.6 192.0 204.0 178.0 149.0 144.0 117.0 110.0
167.8 204.8 209.7 204.0 216.0 220.0 173.0 156.0 124.0 118.0
157.2 194.6 212.4 202.0 209.0 198.0 144.0 145.0 129.0 100.0
165.5 210.0 213.5 198.0 197.0 186.0 161.0 155.0 134.0 101.0
160.4 198.3 193.4 179.0 188.0 175.0 146.0 157.0 128.0 107.0
148.9 193.8 206.1 207.0 197.0 163.0 134.0 146.0 130.0 111.0
165.6 208.8 199.5 203.0 203.0 161.0 149.0 143.0 124.0 110.0
162.1 199.0 198.8 213.0 201.0 172.0 141.0 148.0 120.0 112.0
157.3 206.5 223.1 222.0 217.0 172.0 140.0 149.0 129.0 110.0
153.3 211.3 199.3 205.0 207.0 157.0 147.0 152.0 120.0 104.0
159.8 208.1 212.0 212.0 217.0 162.0 154.0 150.0 119.0
2,360 2,423 2,476 2,470 2,490 2,130 1,800 1,800 1,508 1,317
Recoverable copper content.
1
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Preliminary.
S to cks o f R efin ed C o p p er in th e U n ited S tates, o n F irst o f Mo n th Year
1992 1993 1994 19952 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
75.3 135.4 103.0 55.8 120.0 88.2 281.5 562.6 619.2 383.8
76.3 152.7 87.7 39.6 131.4 98.8 282.2 593.1 620.8 408.4
67.2 144.3 83.6 37.0 125.5 104.4 312.7 614.6 619.5 416.2
69.7 132.3 72.8 22.6 123.1 116.0 315.7 653.5 582.9 481.9
75.9 146.0 70.7 33.1 126.3 117.9 304.5 676.6 537.0 552.6
65.0 153.6 70.4 30.8 107.9 121.7 308.6 687.8 508.8 585.7
62.2 137.1 73.3 27.0 102.8 122.9 306.2 668.4 467.8 626.7
71.2 151.0 81.1 50.0 106.2 148.8 319.0 657.2 418.0 733.1
87.1 128.4 74.6 60.6 104.7 177.1 334.1 639.7 397.7 767.4
99.5 117.2 66.5 71.1 68.0 197.9 367.4 611.2 394.3 895.6
110.3 124.6 52.7 69.4 76.0 227.6 407.2 626.5 379.1
107.1 107.1 53.6 73.4 77.5 253.3 444.6 608.2 344.2
R ecov erable copper content. 1 P reliminary. B eg inning January 1999, includes C onsumers.
2
New reporting method beg inning January 1995, includes C omex , L ondon Metal E x chang e, and R efiners. S ource: American B ureau of Met al S t at ist ics (AB MS )
Deliveries of Refined Copper to Fabricators in the United States Year
1994 19952 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
193.3 233.8 221.6 246.3 284.5 199.6 166.8 166.1 152.1 136.4
168.6 209.2 227.2 234.5 248.4 202.8 161.3 150.8 126.0 123.4
204.6 239.1 240.0 240.6 288.1 235.0 176.3 167.4 140.7 124.6
178.3 200.9 242.2 247.4 289.2 221.4 157.0 148.4 149.3 106.6
187.8 230.0 270.7 254.9 278.7 206.3 173.7 167.6 148.6 107.7
171.9 210.5 222.1 228.1 258.0 201.9 161.3 165.2 136.2 117.0
154.3 187.1 233.8 241.1 252.4 188.0 145.2 162.7 147.9 127.1
194.6 208.8 246.8 258.2 242.1 186.8 149.7 154.0 141.1 120.6
188.2 202.9 277.5 252.3 260.7 193.7 150.6 151.6 129.5 125.8
188.7 224.7 239.7 259.2 232.0 182.3 154.8 160.7 141.6 125.9
167.5 222.4 240.6 256.0 251.9 182.4 149.8 154.7 124.5 112.4
175.1 175.5 231.9 236.6 220.0 175.2 162.7 147.5 129.7
2,173 2,545 2,896 2,959 3,106 2,375 1,909 1,897 1,667 1,448
Recoverable copper content. 1 Preliminary. 2 New reporting method beginning January 1995, includes crude copper deliveries. Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics (ABMS)
D eliveries o f R efin ed C o p p er to F ab ricato rs Ou tsid e th e U n ited S tates Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Total
419.9 405.0 453.7 427.9 399.8 758.5 875.2 862.2 1,091.7 314.5
466.3 404.4 408.9 392.9 429.5 810.1 859.4 889.7 973.8 745.5
436.7 391.5 441.8 452.3 481.2 892.8 934.3 977.9 1,062.0
392.9 361.2 416.4 361.7 466.5 882.2 907.2 1,007.1 1,055.5
408.3 406.3 413.4 422.2 468.9 853.0 816.7 991.1 995.7
466.7 433.5 432.4 442.6 428.1 867.3 950.7 982.7 1,014.8
303.7 368.5 410.4 384.4 387.9 863.7 908.3 897.8 986.8
373.5 323.4 364.7 347.9 369.2 814.1 817.4 873.9 924.8
370.8 420.7 432.6 387.5 423.5 803.4 911.5 886.2 913.3
448.9 499.1 403.5 414.8 448.9 835.1 1,056.0 1,009.0 987.9
469.1 391.4 406.1 463.4 457.1 796.6 922.7 980.4 982.1
420.7 483.4 461.3 458.5 436.0 726.2 918.3 966.6 1,023.0
4,972 4,807 5,045 4,956 5,197 9,903 10,878 11,349 12,011 6,360
R ecov erable copper content. 1 P reliminary. 2 New reporting method beg inning January 1995, includes crude copper deliv eries. S ource: American B ureau of Met al S t at ist ics (AB MS )
55
Corn Corn is a member of the grass family of plants and is a native grain of the American continents. Fossils of corn pollen that are over 80,000 years old have been found in the lake sediment under Mexico City. Archaeological discoveries show that cultivated corn existed in the southwestern US for at least 3,000 years, indicating that the indigenous people of the region cultivated corn as a food crop long before the Europeans reached the New World. Corn is a hardy plant that grows in many different areas of the world. It can grow at altitudes as low as sea level and as high as 12,000 feet in the South American Andes Mountains. Corn can also grow in tropical climates that receive up to 400 inches of rainfall per year or in areas that receive only 12 inches of rainfall per year. Corn is used primarily as livestock feed in both the United States and the rest of the world. Other uses for corn are alcohol additives for gasoline, adhesives, corn oil for cooking and margarine, sweeteners, and as a food for humans. Corn is the largest crop in the US, both in terms of the value of the crop and of the acres planted. The largest futures market for corn is at the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn futures also trade at the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F) in Brazil, the Budapest Commodity Exchange, the Marche a Terme International de France (MATIF), the Mercado a Termino de Buenos Aires in Argentina, the Kanmon Commodity Exchange (KCE) in Korea, and the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE). The CBOT futures contract calls for the delivery of 5000 bushels of No. 2 yellow corn at par contract price, No. 1 yellow at 1-1/2 cents per bushel over the contract price, or No. 3 yellow at 1-1/2 cents per bushel below the contract price. Prices – Corn prices in 2003 on the nearest futures chart fluctuated in a range between about $2.05 and $2.60 per bushel, with the year’s low of $2.04 being seen in late July. Prices then staged a rally in the latter half of 2003 and closed the year at $2.53, only mildly below the 1-1/2 year high of $2.62 posted in May. Prices fell during the summer due to a bumper crop of corn in the US. However, corn prices then firmed up during the latter half of the year as stronger export demand emerged. In 2004 US exports are expected to post a 5-year high because of a poor crop in Argentina (which may have the smallest crop in 8 years in its 2004 growing year) and because of lower exports from China, which in the latter part of 2003 restricted its corn exports due to tight domestic supplies. Supply – World production of corn in 2002/03 was 603.465 million metric tons, up slightly by 0.7% from 599.349 million in 2001/2 (USDA). World production is forecasted to rise by 0.6% to 607.118 million in 2003/04 (USDA). The US is the world’s largest producer of corn with 228.805 million metric tons in 2002/03, accounting for 38% of world production. The second largest producer is China with 121.300 million metric tons (20%), then Brazil with 45.000 million (7.5%), and then the EU with 40.089 million (6.6%). World ending-stocks in 2002/03 year period rose to 630.803
56
million metric tons from 621.830 million in 2001/02 and are expected to rise further to 641.930 million in 2003/04 (USDA). The crop year goes from September to August, but the international trade year goes from October to September. US farmers planted 79.054 million acres of corn (up from 75.752 million acres in 2001/02) and a slight increase to 79.066 million acres was forecast in 2003/4. Yields in 2002/03 fell sharply to 130.0 bushels per acre from 138.2 bushels in 2002/01, but are expected to recover to 143.2 bushels in 2003/4. US production in 2003/4, according to preliminary figures, was 10.278 billion bushels (11-1-03 USDA estimate), up by a hefty 14.1% from 9.008 billion bushels in 2002/3. The largest corn producing states in the US in 2003 were Iowa (18.7%), Illinois (17.0%), Nebraska (10.5%), Minnesota (9.9%), and Indiana (8.0%). Demand – World consumption of corn rose to 630.803 million metric tons in 2002/3 from 621.830 million in 2001/ 2 and is expected to rise further to 641.930 million in 2003/ 4. The US was the world’s largest consumer of corn in 2002/ 3 with 201.669 million metric tons (32% of world total), followed by China at 126.500 million (20%), Brazil at 36.500 million (5.8%), and Mexico at 24.700 million (3.9%). Corn is the leading U.S. feed grain with sorghums a distant second. Animal feed usage in 2001/02 of 5.80 billion bushels compares with 5.89 billion in 2000/01. Corn used to make ethanol in 2003/4 was 1.10 billion bushels, up 15% from 953 million in 2002/3, accounting for a hefty 45% of overall corn usage. Demand for corn as a sweetener (high fructose corn syrup or HFCS) was 530.0 million bushels in 2003/4, accounting for 22% of overall corn demand. Corn demand in 2003/4 for glucose/dextrose was 220.0 million bushels (9% of total consumption) and for starch was 260.0 million bushels (11%). Trade – World trade in corn was forecast at 77.520 million metric tons in 2003/4, slightly lower than the 77.924 million in 2002/3 and the 78.067 million in 2001/2. The US was the world’s largest exporter in 2002/3 at 41.177 million metric tons, accounting for 53% of total world exports. After the US, the world’s largest exporters in 2002/3 were China at 15.244 million (20%), Argentina at 12.349 million (16%), and Brazil a distant fourth at 3.181 million (4%). Argentine corn exports are volatile and are expected to be about 9.000 million metric tons in 2003/4, down from the record 12.349 million in 2002/3 but above 8.581 million in 2001/2. US exports in 2003/4 are forecasted to rise sharply to 50.000 million, more than recovering from the decline to 41.177 million seen in 2002/3 from 47.271 million in 2001/ 02. Importers of corn are spread among a variety of countries with the leaders in 2002/3 being Japan at 16.868 million metric tons (22%), South Korea with 8.786 million (11%), Mexico with 5.284 million (6.8%), and Taiwan at 4.758 million (6.1%). The US is a very small importer of corn at 374,000 metric tons (2002/3), accounting for only 0.5% of world imports.
CORN World Production of Corn or Maiz e
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Crop Year
China
France
India
Italy
Mexico
Romania
South Africa
United States
Yugoslavia
World Total
99,280 112,000 127,470 104,309 132,954 128,086 106,000 114,088 121,300 114,000
12,640 12,394 14,432 16,754 15,204 15,643 16,070 16,410 16,440 11,450
8,884 9,530 10,612 10,852 10,680 11,470 12,068 13,510 11,100 14,000
7,320 8,454 9,547 10,005 8,600 10,020 10,140 10,550 10,550 8,200
17,005 17,780 18,922 17,368 17,789 19,240 17,917 20,400 19,280 19,000
8,500 9,923 9,610 12,680 8,000 10,500 4,800 7,000 7,300 6,000
4,866 10,171 10,136 7,693 7,946 11,455 8,040 10,050 9,675 8,000
255,295 187,970 234,518 233,864 247,882 239,549 251,854 241,485 228,805 256,911
7,415 8,537 8,293 9,564 8,386 10,500 2,940 6,200 5,400
560,288 517,352 592,172 575,363 605,631 607,258 588,035 598,799 602,969 609,063
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
Argentina
11,360 11,100 15,500 19,360 13,500 17,200 15,400 14,700 15,500 12,500
Preliminary.
2
Brazil Canada
37,440 32,480 35,700 30,100 32,393 31,641 41,536 35,501 45,000 40,000
Estimate.
7,043 7,271 7,542 7,180 8,952 9,161 6,827 8,389 8,975 9,600
3
Forecast.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Supply and Demand of Course Grains
In Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares
Crop Year Beginning Oct.1
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
323.6 314.0 322.8 311.0 307.9 299.7 296.0 300.4 292.6 300.1
2.69 2.55 2.81 2.84 2.89 2.93 2.90 2.97 2.98 2.95
869.6 801.2 907.8 882.4 890.7 877.4 859.0 891.3 871.5 884.1
World Trade
Total Consumption
Ending Stocks
Stocks as % of Consumption3
98.5 88.1 94.3 85.8 96.7 104.8 104.4 102.2 104.4 103.0
857.9 840.4 874.0 871.8 870.9 883.7 881.6 904.0 902.0 929.3
192.1 152.9 186.7 197.4 217.2 210.8 188.2 175.5 145.0 99.8
22.4 18.2 21.4 22.6 24.9 23.9 21.3 19.4 16.1 10.7
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Represents the ratio of marketing year ending stocks to total consumption. U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Acreage and Supply of Corn in the United States ------- Harvested -------
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service,
In Millions of Bushels Carry-over,
Crop Year Beginning Sept. 13
F or F or Planted Grain Silage --------- In Thousands of Acres ---------
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
79,175 71,245 79,229 79,537 80,165 77,386 79,551 75,752 79,054 78,736
72,887 64,995 72,644 72,671 72,589 70,487 72,440 68,808 69,313 71,139
1
2 Estimate.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Preliminary.
5,601 5,295 5,607 6,054 5,913 6,037 6,082 6,148 7,490 6,528
Yield Per Harvested Acre Bushels
----------- Sept. 1 -----------
138.6 113.5 127.1 126.7 134.4 133.8 136.9 138.2 130.0 142.2
Off Farms
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
395.4 740.9 196.6 475.0 640.0 797.0 793.0 753.2 586.8 484.9
454.7 816.9 229.3 408.2 667.8 990.0 924.5 1,146.0 1,009.6 601.8
850 1,558 426 883 1,308 1,787 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087
10,051 7,400 9,233 9,207 9,759 9,431 9,915 9,507 9,008 10,114
10 16 13 9 19 15 7 10 14 10
10,910 8,974 9,672 10,099 11,088 11,239 11,693 11,416 10,619 11,211
Production of Corn (For Grain) in the United States, by State Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Michi gan
1,786.2 1,130.0 1,468.8 1,425.5 1,473.5 1,491.0 1,668.6 1,649.2 1,496.0 1,812.2
858.2 598.9 670.4 701.5 760.4 748.4 815.9 884.5 631.6 786.9
1,930.4 1,402.2 1,711.2 1,642.2 1,769.0 1,758.2 1,740.0 1,664.4 1,963.5 1,884.0
304.6 244.3 357.2 371.8 419.0 420.2 416.0 387.4 290.0 300.0
260.9 249.6 211.5 255.1 227.6 253.5 244.3 199.5 232.3 263.3
Preliminary.
---------------------------------- Supply ----------------------------------
On Farms
In Million of Bushels
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
Ohio
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Total
915.9 731.9 868.8 851.4 1,032.8 990.0 957.0 806.0 1,051.9 970.9
273.7 149.9 340.4 299.0 285.0 247.4 396.1 345.8 283.5 302.4
1,153.7 854.7 1,179.8 1,135.2 1,239.8 1,153.7 1,014.3 1,139.3 940.8 1,124.2
486.5 375.1 310.8 475.7 470.9 403.2 485.1 437.5 252.6 478.9
367.2 193.6 365.0 326.4 429.6 367.3 431.2 370.6 304.0 427.4
238.7 216.6 198.2 241.5 185.0 228.3 235.6 167.6 205.7 194.7
437.1 347.7 333.0 402.6 404.2 407.6 363.0 330.2 391.5 367.7
10,102.7 7,373.9 9,232.6 9,206.8 9,758.7 9,437.3 9,968.4 9,506.8 9,007.7 10,113.9
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
57
CORN Supply and Disappearance of Corn in the United States
In Millions of Bushels
---------------------------------- Disappearance ------------------------------------------------------ Domestic Use --------------------
Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
F ood, ------------------------- Supply ------------------------Beginning ProTotal Alcohol & Stocks duction Imports Supply Industrial
1999-00 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2000-1 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2001-2 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2002-31 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2003-42 Sept.-Nov.
1,787 1,787 8,039 5,602 3,586 1,718 1,718 8,522 6,043 3,924 1,899 1,899 8,265 5,795 3,597 1,596 1,596 7,638 5,132 2,985 1,087 1,087
9,431 9,431 ---------9,968 9,968 ---------9,507 9,507 ---------9,008 9,008 ---------10,114 10,114
15.0 3.5 3.0 6.0 2.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 14.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 10.0 2.0
11,232 11,221 8,043 5,607 3,588 11,693 11,687 8,523 6,046 3,925 11,416 11,408 8,266 5,799 3,599 10,619 10,608 7,642 5,137 2,987 11,211 11,203
1,913 459 447 512 496 1,967 466 465 524 512 2,054 489 480 544 540 2,346 552 564 619 612 2,510 598
S eed
19.9 0 0 0 0
F eed & Residual
Total
5,664 2,189 1,526 1,059 890 5,842 2,131 1,607 1,153 951 5,861 2,207 1,542 1,161 950 5,593 2,024 1,547 1,140 882 5,800 2,187
7,597 2,648 1,973 1,571 1,386 7,809 2,597 2,072 1,677 1,463 7,915 2,696 2,022 1,705 1,490 7,939 2,576 2,111 1,759 1,494 8,310 2,785
Total --------- Ending Inventory --------D i sa p Gov't Privately Exports pearance Owned3 Total Owned4
1,937 534 468 451 485 1,941 507 415 455 564 1,905 448 448 497 512 1,592 393 400 393 406 2,000 473
9,515 3,182 2,441 2,021 1,871 9,740 3,104 2,488 2,122 2,026 9,820 3,144 2,471 2,203 2,002 9,532 2,970 2,510 2,152 1,900 10,310 3,259
15.0 19.3 15.1
1,744 8,005 5,590
1,718 8,039 5,602 3,586 1,718 1,899 8,530 6,043 3,924 1,899 1,596 8,265 5,795 3,597 1,596 1,087 7,638 5,132 2,985 1,087 901 7,945
Gulf Kansas Average City Chicago Ports Omaha ----------------- Corn for Grain Production Estimates ----------------- St. Louis Farm No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 No. 2 Price2 Yellow White Yellow Yellow Aug. 1 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 Final Yellow -------------------------- In Thousands of Bushels -------------------------- ------------------------------ Dollars Per Bushel ------------------------------
Value of Production (Million Dollars)
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Uncommitted inventory. 4 I ncludes quantity under loan and farmer-owned reserve. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Corn Production Estimates and Cash Price in the United States
Year
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
8,121,520 7,832,140 7,541,400 7,373,700 7,373,876 8,694,628 8,803,928 9,012,148 9,265,288 9,232,557 9,275,870 9,267,655 9,311,705 9,359,485 9,206,832 9,592,089 9,737,949 9,743,399 9,836,069 9,758,685 9,560,919 9,380,947 9,466,977 9,537,137 9,437,337 10,369,369 10,362,374 10,191,817 10,053,942 9,968,358 9,266,397 9,238,356 9,429,543 9,545,513 9,506,840 8,886,009 8,848,529 8,969,836 9,003,364 9,007,659 10,064,452 9,944,418 10,207,141 10,277,932 10,113,887
4.06 2.90 2.60 1.99 2.02 2.01 2.15 2.24
3.87 2.70 2.36 1.88 1.80 1.82 1.95 2.24
1 Preliminary. 2 Season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings. U..S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Distribution of Corn in the United States Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
4.14 3.09 2.93 2.51 1.98 2.06 2.20 3.03
3.97 2.84 2.56 2.06 1.97 1.99 2.13 2.40
3.24 2.71 2.43 1.94 1.84 1.86 1.98 2.32 2.26
24,118 25,149 22,352 18,922 17,104 18,499 18,888 20,975 24,804
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Millions of Bushels
Livestock F eed4
Exports (Including Grain Equiv. of Products)
Domestic D i sa p pearance
Total Utilization
4,693 5,277 5,482 5,468 5,665 5,842 5,877 5,650
2,227.8 1,797.4 1,504.4 1,984.2 1,936.6 1,941.3 1,888.9 1,675.0
6,301 6,991 7,287 7,314 7,578 7,799 7,931 7,935
8,528 8,789 8,791 9,298 9,515 9,740 9,820 9,610
------------------------------------------ Food, Seed and Industrial Use ---------------------------------------------- Alcohol ----HFCS
Glucose & Dextrose
Starch
Fuel
Beverage3
482 504 513 531 540 530 541 532 535
237 246 229 219 222 218 217 225 225
219 229 246 240 251 247 246 256 260
396 429 481 526 566 628 706 996 1,150
125 130 133 127 130 130 131 131 132
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Also includes nonfuel industrial alcohol. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
58
4.30 3.07 2.78 2.35 2.23 2.26 2.35 2.71 2.72
S eed
20.2 20.3 20.4 19.8 20.3 19.3 20.1 20.1 4
Cereal & Other Products
Total
133 135 182 184 185 185 186 187 188
1,592 1,672 1,784 1,826 1,893 1,938 2,026 2,326 2,490
Feed and waste (residual, mostly feed). Source: Economic Research Service,
CORN
Cents Per Bushel ----- No. 3 Yellow, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - Apr. 1947) No. 2 Yellow, Chicago (May 1947 - Mar. 1982) No. 2 Yellow, Central, IL (Apr. 1982 - date)
Average Cash Price of Corn, No. 2 Yellow in Central Illinois
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
2.08 2.83 3.39 2.61 1.78 1.81 1.58 1.94 2.57 2.25
1.92 3.12 2.81 2.66 1.94 1.72 1.81 1.84 2.41 2.11
2.03 3.22 2.63 2.70 2.09 1.82 1.96 1.90 2.36 2.26
2.16 3.36 2.62 2.60 2.08 1.84 2.01 1.97 2.32 2.38
2.22 3.53 2.62 2.60 2.07 1.95 1.99 1.95 2.29
2.27 3.71 2.71 2.58 2.05 2.03 1.95 1.92 2.33
2.36 3.92 2.90 2.59 2.09 2.08 1.92 1.92 2.31
2.41 4.47 2.87 2.41 2.05 2.09 1.87 1.89 2.36
2.50 4.86 2.74 2.37 2.03 2.15 1.78 1.96 2.40
2.65 4.74 2.59 2.29 1.99 1.83 1.76 2.04 2.37
2.79 4.70 2.44 2.16 1.67 1.53 1.92 2.22 2.13
2.68 4.48 2.60 1.86 1.84 1.49 2.00 2.50 2.26
2.34 3.91 2.74 2.45 1.97 1.86 1.88 2.00 2.34 2.25
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Cash Price of Corn, No. 2 Yellow at Gulf Ports2
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
2.48 3.32 3.69 2.88 2.18 2.21 2.03 2.27 2.89 2.63
2.44 3.57 3.27 3.05 2.43 2.17 2.15 2.19 2.79 2.65
2.43 3.63 2.97 2.98 2.47 2.17 2.26 2.28 2.77 2.75
2.61 3.76 2.97 2.89 2.42 2.21 2.45 2.35 2.71 2.84
2.72 4.00 3.02 2.90 2.48 2.36 2.40 2.34 2.69
2.72 4.18 3.08 2.88 2.40 2.42 2.35 2.30 2.69
2.79 4.34 3.25 2.89 2.45 2.42 2.32 2.28 2.67
2.79 4.80 3.17 2.71 2.39 2.43 2.22 2.21 2.67
2.84 5.17 3.01 2.69 2.35 2.43 2.14 2.29 2.74
3.04 4.99 2.86 2.64 2.36 2.13 2.11 2.37 2.72
3.23 5.07 2.69 2.55 2.12 1.91 2.30 2.53 2.72
3.21 4.73 2.86 2.24 2.20 1.91 2.36 2.79 2.44
2.78 4.30 3.07 2.78 2.35 2.23 2.26 2.35 2.71 2.72
1
Preliminary.
2
Barge delivered to Louisiana Gulf.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
59
CORN Weekly Outstanding Export Sales and Cumulative Exports of U.S. Corn Marketing Year 2001/02 Week Ending
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan .
F eb .
Mar.
Apr.
May
Ju n e
July
A ug .
6 2001 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 2002 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29
2001/02 OutCumulative standing Exports Sales
7,090 6,692 6,553 7,018 6,862 6,944 7,074 6,788 7,028 6,838 6,824 6,603 7,635 7,541 7,399 7,596 7,347 6,830 7,110 7,432 7,415 7,944 8,339 8,530 8,410 7,285 7,338 7,283 7,090 6,788 6,302 6,315 6,281 6,522 6,405 6,836 6,814 6,582 6,219 6,469 6,414 6,335 6,623 5,933 5,717 5,402 5,026 4,596 4,271 3,592 2,848 2,082
567 1,660 2,992 3,780 4,552 5,287 6,059 6,909 7,569 8,566 9,261 10,131 10,618 11,595 12,339 13,051 13,825 14,456 15,092 16,075 16,834 17,637 18,278 19,260 20,187 21,710 22,704 23,849 24,831 26,090 27,020 27,893 28,841 29,726 30,601 31,637 32,618 33,979 34,761 35,819 36,917 37,922 38,618 39,667 40,599 41,687 42,732 43,489 44,621 45,706 46,634 47,460
Marketing Year 2002/03 Week Ending
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan .
F eb .
Mar.
Apr.
May
Ju n e
July
A ug .
2002/03 CumuOutstanding lative Exports Sales
5 2002 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 2003 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
60
6,206 6,418 6,352 6,852 7,024 6,890 6,584 6,973 7,629 7,986 8,119 8,308 7,922 7,415 7,081 6,635 6,561 5,860 5,635 5,596 5,219 5,267 5,029 4,827 4,775 5,465 5,631 6,013 6,066 5,571 5,458 5,380 5,152 5,379 5,431 5,879 5,804 5,640 5,289 5,302 5,178 5,264 5,117 5,075 4,839 4,532 4,238 3,851 3,684 3,180 2,653 1,900
439 1,276 2,080 2,536 3,034 3,836 4,659 5,299 5,729 6,521 7,322 8,285 9,345 10,399 11,444 12,568 13,013 13,998 14,839 15,551 16,241 16,938 17,793 18,462 19,183 19,904 20,444 21,231 21,880 22,732 23,706 24,469 25,283 25,955 26,483 27,099 27,923 28,723 29,608 30,325 31,191 31,918 32,834 33,596 34,309 35,086 35,928 36,739 37,238 38,006 38,728 39,646
In Thousands of Metric Tons Marketing Year 2003/04 Week Ending
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan .
F eb .
Mar.
Apr.
May
Ju n e
July
A ug .
4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26
2003
2004
2003/04 CumuOutlative standing Sales Exports
7,626 7,683 8,252 8,274 8,451 9,229 9,062 9,634 10,207 10,239 10,243 10,601 10,313 10,342 10,319 9,847 9,763 9,150 8,986 9,113 8,944 9,043 9,441 9,522
461 1,319 2,127 3,021 3,800 4,661 5,581 6,490 7,346 8,062 8,975 10,219 11,356 12,366 13,312 14,737 15,579 16,608 17,611 18,483 19,427 20,310 21,064 21,936
CORN Average Price Received by Farmers for Corn in the United States
In Dollars Per Bushel
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
2.19 2.69 3.55 2.52 1.83 1.75 1.61 1.91 2.47 2.20
2.06 2.79 2.89 2.54 1.91 1.69 1.74 1.84 2.34 2.12
1.99 2.87 2.66 2.51 1.93 1.70 1.86 1.85 2.28 2.20
2.13 3.07 2.63 2.52 2.00 1.82 1.97 1.98 2.32 2.32
2.19 3.09 2.69 2.56 2.06 1.91 1.98 1.97 2.33 2.46
2.23 3.37 2.65 2.55 2.05 1.98 1.96 1.93 2.34
2.30 3.51 2.79 2.54 2.06 2.03 1.96 1.94 2.33
2.36 3.85 2.80 2.41 2.04 2.03 1.89 1.91 2.34
2.41 4.14 2.69 2.34 1.99 2.11 1.82 1.93 2.38
2.51 4.20 2.56 2.28 1.97 1.91 1.76 1.97 2.34
2.63 4.43 2.42 2.19 1.74 1.64 1.87 2.13 2.17
2.63 4.30 2.50 1.89 1.75 1.52 1.90 2.38 2.15
2.26 3.53 2.74 2.40 1.94 1.84 1.86 1.98 2.32 2.26
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Corn Price Support Data in the United States Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
CCC Inventory ------- As of Dec. 31 ------Owned Placed CCC Under by C C C Under % of ProAcquired Owned C C C Loan Aug. 31 Loan duction by C C C -------------------------------------------- Millions of Bushels --------------------------------------------
National Average Target Loan Rate3 Price --- Dollars Per Bushel ---
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32
1.72 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.98
1
Preliminary. (NASS-USDA)
2
2.75 2.75 2.75 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2.60
Estimate.
3
618 2,002 970 561 1,132 823
9.7 19.8 9.2
Findley or announced loan rate.
0 0 0 0 19 0
45
54 44 42 30 2 15 26 36 24
Year Beginning Oct. 1
Algeria
Canada
Egypt
Irael
Ja p a n
Mexico
Rep. of Korea
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-32
1,095 798 507 862 829 947 1,099 1,180 1,343 1,009
574 1,108 736 879 1,404 898 1,080 2,797 3,979 3,814
1,402 2,342 1,854 2,364 1,951 2,954 3,542 4,116 4,283 2,920
268 658 625 556 141 395 748 621 847 313
11,923 16,030 14,900 15,425 13,957 15,375 14,939 14,091 14,817 14,511
1,678 3,165 6,268 3,141 4,423 5,576 4,910 5,928 4,025 5,235
631 8,866 7,333 5,404 3,364 6,659 2,822 3,109 1,085 272
Excludes exports of corn by-products.
2
Preliminary.
------------------------- On Farms -------------------------
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
13,697 26,318 677,115 970,590 1,129,915 1,129,915 1,420,878 1,393,947
26,052 53,474 1,232,669 1,764,291 2,062,308 2,062,308 2,590,443 2,562,172
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Russia
2,259 9 50 88 1 405 491 26 86
Saudi Arabia
851 864 844 1,025 883 1,175 1,197 1,003 670 222
Spain
Taiwan
Venezuela
Total
1,102 2,337 1,156 1,080 141 92 16 0 5
5,015 6,150 5,600 5,609 3,488 4,538 4,989 4,894 4,599 4,219
751 886 479 730 645 1,329 1,146 1,152 502 651
33,015 58,596 52,660 46,638 37,755 51,949 49,378 48,192 47,058 41,037
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Stocks of Corn (Shelled and Ear) in the United States Year
F a ce Amount (Thousands of Dollars)
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Exports1 of Corn (Including Seed), By Country of Destination
1
812 1,598 579 756 81
Quantity Pledged (Thousands of Bushels)
In Millions of Bushels
------------------------ Off Farms -----------------------
-------------------------- Total Stocks -----------------------
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
Mar. 1
June 1
Sept. 1
D e c. 1
2,210.2 3,502.0 2,000.2 2,870.0 2,975.0 3,570.0 3,300.0 3,600.0 3,355.0 2,940.0
1,203.0 2,072.0 780.1 1,501.0 1,830.0 2,257.0 2,029.8 2,230.8 2,020.6 1,620.2
395.4 740.9 196.6 475.0 640.0 797.0 793.0 753.2 586.8 484.9
5,417.5 3,960.0 4,800.0 4,822.0 5,320.0 5,195.0 5,550.0 5,275.0 4,800.0 5,286.0
1,785.5 2,089.7 1,799.3 1,624.1 1,964.9 2,128.4 2,301.9 2,443.0 2,440.3 2,191.9
1,156.9 1,342.9 937.8 995.6 1,209.8 1,359.2 1,556.1 1,693.2 1,576.3 1,364.7
454.7 816.9 229.3 408.2 667.8 990.0 924.5 1,146.0 1,009.6 601.8
2,663.0 2,145.8 2,103.0 2,424.8 2,731.8 2,844.4 2,972.2 2,989.7 2,838.0 2,658.8
3,995.7 5,591.7 3,799.5 4,494.1 4,939.9 5,698.4 5,601.9 6,043.0 5,795.3 5,131.9
2,359.9 3,414.9 1,717.9 2,496.6 3,039.8 3,616.2 3,585.9 3,924.0 3,596.9 2,984.9
850.1 1,557.8 425.9 883.2 1,307.8 1,787.0 1,717.5 1,899.1 1,596.4 1,086.7
8,080.5 6,105.8 6,903.0 7,246.8 8,051.8 8,039.4 8,522.2 8,264.7 7,638.0 7,944.8
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
61
CORN
Volume of Trading of Corn Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,251.4 787.2 1,992.2 1,160.6 1,250.2 955.1 1,502.2 1,397.2 996.3 1,204.0
1,035.6 832.4 1,819.6 1,483.0 1,276.5 1,374.2 1,580.9 1,197.4 1,449.6 1,559.1
1,045.6 973.7 1,607.6 1,693.3 1,432.8 1,440.1 1,713.1 1,329.5 944.7 1,156.9
1,108.8 987.7 2,655.2 1,780.1 1,620.3 1,420.6 1,386.3 1,518.7 1,498.0 1,633.1
1,079.2 1,213.7 2,085.2 1,291.7 1,148.5 975.1 1,789.7 1,173.2 1,434.5 1,657.0
1,455.0 1,759.5 1,545.1 1,347.5 1,771.0 1,597.4 1,830.7 1,612.1 1,851.5 1,951.2
747.6 1,293.7 1,590.5 1,527.7 1,415.3 1,708.0 1,178.3 2,023.5 1,958.4 1,499.3
601.8 1,318.6 1,144.6 1,318.3 1,231.4 1,669.8 1,291.8 1,549.0 2,158.7 1,830.6
615.0 1,220.2 1,183.4 1,060.2 1,126.3 1,131.9 1,057.4 1,072.3 1,635.4 1,389.7
703.0 1,613.2 1,435.7 1,700.2 1,319.3 1,096.2 1,256.1 1,223.3 1,523.3 2,057.7
1,025.4 1,743.1 1,514.7 1,434.4 1,217.2 1,500.9 1,612.8 1,741.2 1,801.4 1,815.9
861.4 1,356.0 1,046.3 1,188.0 986.6 855.6 986.1 891.4 880.5 1,364.3
11,529.8 15,105.1 19,620.2 16,985.0 15,795.5 15,724.8 17,185.4 16,728.7 18,132.4 19,118.7
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Average Open Interest of Corn Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
346,077 292,090 500,837 305,779 328,020 357,682 445,999 454,326 459,314 455,967
336,342 311,372 508,496 347,392 341,444 363,153 478,892 469,027 464,368 469,611
327,539 336,433 469,697 382,261 358,221 357,126 482,080 440,548 431,923 445,343
305,722 355,443 453,707 351,852 366,657 343,624 487,758 455,718 430,712 411,983
262,621 368,381 403,118 290,649 337,703 338,467 476,891 424,386 411,346 406,987
246,308 427,744 350,066 274,760 327,237 323,658 445,018 423,840 430,856 385,775
215,081 413,839 304,265 267,531 297,894 329,460 391,967 389,898 458,081 384,561
208,990 418,450 298,894 281,194 318,162 315,858 387,289 387,710 509,069 383,590
212,983 439,170 302,170 307,415 321,992 316,247 356,583 370,315 501,523 356,181
243,678 473,698 326,373 378,453 332,337 410,955 397,966 419,447 485,859 420,680
262,849 490,970 332,809 379,045 342,868 461,037 454,920 462,930 496,998 470,165
250,646 487,977 306,256 331,386 322,157 389,187 414,851 416,593 450,016 447,455
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
62
In Contracts
Jan.
Corn Oil Corn oil is a bland, odorless oil produced by refining the crude corn oil that is mechanically extracted from the germ of the plant seed. High-oil corn, the most common type of corn used to make corn oil, typically has oil content of 7% or higher compared to about 4% of normal corn. Corn oil is widely used as a cooking oil, for making margarine and mayonnaise, as well as for making soap, paints, inks, varnishes, and cosmetics. For humans, studies have shown that that no vegetable oil is more effective than corn oil in lowering blood cholesterol levels. Prices –The average corn oil price for 2002/3 of 28.17 cents was sharply higher than the range of 17-19 cents seen in 1999/2000 through 2001/02. Seasonally, prices tend to be highest around March/April and lowest late in the calen-
dar year. Supply – Corn oil production in 2002/3 rose by 4.7% to a record high 2.575 billion pounds from 2.459 billion in 2001/ 2. Seasonally, production tends to peak around December and March and reaches a low in July. Stocks on October 1 at the end of the 2002/3 marketing year were tight at 104 million pounds, down from 117 million in 2001/2 and 267 million in 2000/1. Demand – US usage was 1.400 billion pounds in 2002/ 3, up from 1.342 billion in 2001/2. Exports – Corn oil exports in 2002/3 accounted for nearly half of US production at 46%. US corn oil exports in 2002/3 rose to 1.200 billion pounds from 1.190 billion pounds in 2001/2.
Supply and Disappearance of Corn Oil in the United States Crop Year Beginning Oct. 1
----------------------------- Supply ----------------------------Stocks Oct. 1
Production
Imports
Total Supply
129 102 135 267 117 104 114
2,335 2,374 2,501 2,403 2,461 2,453 2,650
28.1 42.4 17.5 27.3 61.0 65.0 65.0
2,492 2,518 2,654 2,698 2,639 2,622 2,829
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
W = Withheld proprietary data.
W W W W W
Year
1
Preliminary.
375 384 800 956 W
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
1,272 1,394 1,417 1,630 1,363 1,618 1,804
1,118 989 970 951 1,172 890 900
2,390 2,383 2,387 2,581 2,535 2,508 2,704
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
199.2 209.2 204.3 208.6 196.0 218.6 209.1
207.5 199.4 212.3 192.7 203.3 195.0 196.5
202.0 189.2 218.6 190.4 206.5 212.3 193.2
171.4 182.9 214.8 198.9 200.1 206.8
162.7 177.0 199.0 180.5 183.8 181.7
201.0 201.0 214.9 201.6 187.1 206.0
203.9 201.1 210.5 200.7 189.4 199.7
201.2 205.3 213.6 206.2 219.8 203.6
201.4 205.7 204.3 204.0 227.3 207.1
192.8 194.8 226.4 205.7 220.2 216.5
202.8 212.5 225.3 211.1 217.0 202.5
188.9 196.3 201.9 203.2 211.0 203.2
2,335 2,374 2,546 2,404 2,462 2,453 2,395
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
87.5 106.6 96.2 136.2 W W W
83.8 104.4 97.1 112.2 W W W
100.6 105.0 114.7 129.3 W W W
83.0 82.0 94.9 106.7 W W W
89.2 W 89.2 122.6 W W
100.5 102.0 W 118.7 W W
92.5 94.6 W 111.9 W W
100.5 101.7 W 140.4 W W
104.2 104.3 W W W W
90.6 90.1 W W W W
101.7 97.0 134.2 W W W
94.6 103.5 129.6 W W W
1,129 1,190 1,296 1,467 W W
W = Withheld proprietary data.
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Average Corn Oil Price, Wet Mill in Chicago Year
492 496 953 1,298 950
In Millions of Pounds
Consumption Corn Oil, in Refining, in the United States Year
W W W W W
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production2 of Crude Corn Oil in the United States 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------------------------------------ Disappearance -----------------------------------------------------Salad Baking Total Domestic Total and and D i sa p D i sa p Edible Cooking MargFrying Exports pearance pearance Products Oil arine Fats
In Cents Per Pound
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Average
25.20 29.46 21.97 10.52 17.18 22.45 26.99
26.25 29.65 21.96 10.37 18.30 26.90 27.56
26.28 29.88 21.68 10.54 22.45 28.25 28.73
26.04 29.15 20.81 10.25 20.54 29.30 29.26
27.31 26.58 20.06 11.06 18.35 28.90
28.50 23.01 19.28 11.91 18.37 27.20
30.93 23.08 18.32 13.76 17.70 27.55
33.20 22.96 16.63 14.84 17.00 29.10
32.82 22.95 14.57 15.94 17.60 30.15
31.52 22.43 13.55 17.28 19.10 29.90
29.93 22.41 13.03 18.73 21.72 30.68
29.25 22.08 11.85 17.30 21.40 27.71
28.94 25.30 17.81 13.54 19.14 28.17 28.14
Source: Economic Research Service,U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
63
Cotton Cotton is a natural vegetable fiber that comes from small trees and shrubs of a genus belonging to the mallow family, one of which is the common American Upland cotton plant. Cotton has been used in India for at least the last 5,000 years and probably much longer, and was also used by the ancient Chinese, Egyptians, and North and South Americans. Cotton was one of the earliest crops grown by European settlers in the US. Cotton requires a long growing season, plenty of sunshine and water during the growing season, and then dry weather for harvesting. In the United States, the Cotton Belt stretches from northern Florida to North Carolina and westward to California. In the US, planting time varies from the beginning of February in Southern Texas to the beginning of June in the northern sections of the Cotton Belt. The flower bud of the plant blossoms and develops into an oval boll that splits open at maturity. At maturity, cotton is most vulnerable to damage from wind and rain. Approximately 95% of the cotton in the US is now harvested mechanically with spindle-type pickers or strippers and then sent off to cotton gins for processing. There it is dried, cleaned, separated, and packed into bales. Cotton is used in a wide range of products from clothing to home furnishings to medical products. The value of cotton is determined according to the staple, grade, and character of each bale. Staple refers to short, medium, long, or extra-long fiber length, with medium staple accounting for about 70% of all US cotton. Grade refers to the color, brightness, and amount of foreign matter and is established by the US Department of Agriculture. Character refers to the fiber’s diameter, strength, body, maturity (ratio of mature to immature fibers), uniformity, and smoothness. Cotton is the fifth leading cash crop of the US and is one of the nation’s principal agricultural exports. Cotton futures and options are traded on the New York Cotton Exchange, a division of the New York Board of Trade. Cotton futures are also traded on the Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F). Cotton yarn futures are traded on the Central Japan Commodity Exchange (CCOM) and the Osaka Mercantile Exchange (OME). The New York Cotton Exchange’s futures contract calls for the delivery of 50,000 pounds net weight (approximately 100 bales) of No. 2 cotton with quality of Strict Low Middling and a staple length of 1-and-2/32 inch. Delivery points include Texas (Galveston and Houston), New Orleans, Memphis, and Greenville/ Spartanburg in South Carolina. Prices – Cotton prices on the New York Board of Trade nearest futures chart started 2003 near 50 cents/pound and then showed a fairly steady rally during the year to post an 8-year high of 85 cents in October, finally closing the year near 75 cents. Bullish factors during 2003 included very tight stocks, aggressive Chinese import buying, the upward rebound in the US economy, and the weak US dollar. Supply – World cotton production in 2003/4 was forecast at 92.195 million bales (480 pounds per bale), up 4.5% from 88.184 million in 2002/3 (USDA as of Jan-2004). World ending stocks for 2003/4 are forecasted at 32.358 million bales, down 12.5% from 36.971 million in 2002/3. The world’s largest cotton producers are China with 30.200 million bales of production in 2003/4 (representing 24% of world
64
production), the US with 18.224 million bales (20%), India with 12.7 million bales (14%), and Pakistan with 7.600 million bales (8%). US cotton production for 2003/4 was forecast at 18.224 million bales, up 5.9% from 17.209 million in 2002/3. US ending stocks for 2003/4 are forecasted at 4.250 million bales, down 21.1% from 5.385 million in 2002/3. US farmers planted 13.631 million acres of cotton in 2003/4, down from 13.958 million in 2002/3, and harvested acres were also lower at 12.107 million versus 12.427 million in 2002/ 3. However, yields were higher in 2003/4 at 722 pounds/ acre versus 675 pounds in 2002/3, thus leading to the 6% increase in production in 2003/4. The leading states with US cotton production in 2002/3 were Texas (with 9.7% of US production), Georgia (5.0%), Mississippi (4.9%), Arkansas (4.1%), and California (3.5%). Texas saw a big 17% decline in production in 2002/3, but there were large increases in South Carolina (+152%), Alabama (+44%), Louisiana (+38%), Georgia (+36%) and North Carolina (+36%). US production of cotton cloth has fallen sharply in the past three years to below 4 billion square yards to 3.524 million in the latest full reporting year of 2002. That illustrates the movement of the textile industry out of the US to low-wage foreign countries. Demand – World consumption of cotton for 2003/4 was forecast at 97.111 million bales, down slightly by –0.8% from 97.923 million in 2002/3. That consumption of 97.111 million in 2003/4 far outstripped the production level of 92.195 million, a bullish factor for prices. That was the second consecutive year in which consumption was higher than production, thus leading to the sharp drawdown in stocks. Consumption of cotton continues to move toward countries with low wages, which are becoming the main producers of cotton products. The largest consumers of cotton are China (31%), India (14%), and Pakistan (10%). US consumption was forecast at 6.200 million bales in 2003/4, down -14.7% from 7.269 million in 2002/3. US consumption of 6.200 million in 2003/4 was far below US production of 18.224 million, allowing the US to be the number one world exporter of cotton by far. Trade – World trade in cotton in 2003/4 is forecasted to rise about 5% to 32 million bales from the previous year. The world’s largest exporters of cotton in 2003/4 are forecasted to be the US with 13.200 million bales (41% of world exports), Uzbekistan (9%), and Brazil (5%). Brazil in 2003/ 4 is projected to show a sharp 237% increase in cotton exports. A decline in exports of -38% is projected for Australia for 2003/4, -14% for Uzbekistan, and a -15% decline for Greece. US cotton exports in 2003/4 are projected to rise 11% to 13.200 million bales from 11.900 million in 2002/3, largely due to increased Chinese demand. The main destinations for US exports in 2003/4 were forecasted to be China (16%), Mexico (16%), Indonesia (7%), Taiwan (5%), and Thailand (5%). The world’s largest importers in 2003/4 are forecasted to be China with 7.000 million bales (22% of world imports) and Indonesia (7%). China’s imports in 2003/4 rose sharply by 124% from the previous year, clearly a major driving factor for world cotton demand and prices.
COTTON Supply and Distribution of All Cotton in the United States
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales Ending Stocks -- Cents per Lb. --
Value of Production MIllion $
2,650 2,609 3,971 3,887 3,939 3,915 6,000 7,448 5,385 4,250
6,796.7 6,574.6 6,408.1 5,975.6 4,119.9 3,809.6 4,260.4 3,121.8 3,777.1 5,581.6
---------------- Acre ----------------- --------------------- Supply --------------------- -------------------- Disappearance --------------------
Crop Year Yield Beginning Beginning Planted Harvested ---- 1,000 Acres ---- Lbs./acre Stocks3 Aug. 1
Production4 Imports
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
19,662 17,900 18,942 18,793 13,918 16,968 17,188 20,303 17,209 18,224
13,720 16,931 14,653 13,898 13,393 14,874 15,517 15,769 13,958 13,483
13,322 16,007 12,888 13,406 10,684 13,425 13,053 13,828 12,427 12,058
708 537 705 673 625 607 632 705 665 725
3,530 2,650 2,609 3,971 3,887 3,939 3,915 6,000 7,448 5,385
20 408 403 13 443 97 16 21 67 50
Total
Mill Use Exports
23,212 20,958 21,954 22,777 18,248 21,004 21,119 26,324 24,724 23,650
11,198 9,402 10,604 7,675 11,126 6,865 11,349 7,500 10,401 4,344 10,240 6,750 8,862 6,740 7,696 11,000 7,269 11,900 6,200 13,200
UnacTotal counted
20,600 18,322 17,991 18,849 14,699 16,944 15,602 18,696 19,169 19,400
38 -27 8 -41 394 145 483 -180 -170
Farm "A" Index Price5 Price6
72.0 76.5 70.5 66.2 61.7 46.8 51.6 32.0 45.7 63.8
92.66 85.61 78.66 72.11 58.97 52.85 57.25 41.88 55.81
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Excludes preseason ginnings (adjusted to 480-lb. bale net weight basis). 4 I ncludes preseason ginnings. Marketing year average price. 6 Average of 5 cheapest types of SLM 1 3/32 staple length cotton offered on the European market. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA) 5
World Production of All Cotton
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
Argentina
Brazil
China
Egypt
India
Iran
Mexico
Pakistan
Sudan
Turkey
United States
Uzbekistan
World Total
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
1,608 1,929 1,493 1,406 920 615 735 300 290 475
2,526 1,791 1,286 1,745 2,100 3,100 4,100 3,518 3,890 4,400
19,900 21,900 19,300 21,100 20,700 17,600 20,300 24,400 22,600 25,500
1,170 1,088 1,568 1,532 1,050 1,050 920 1,441 1,310 1,000
11,148 13,250 13,918 12,337 12,883 12,180 10,900 12,300 10,600 12,500
762 800 825 600 638 650 735 575 460 380
460 974 1,078 984 1,039 669 363 432 194 300
6,250 8,200 7,323 7,175 6,300 8,600 8,200 8,300 7,800 8,350
400 490 460 400 250 240 340 275 375 500
2,886 3,911 3,600 3,651 3,860 3,634 3,600 3,975 4,134 4,200
19,662 17,900 18,942 18,793 13,918 16,968 17,188 20,303 17,209 17,559
5,778 5,740 4,813 5,228 4,600 5,180 4,400 4,900 4,600 4,300
85,857 93,063 89,589 91,570 84,879 87,242 88,526 98,349 87,989 94,495
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Stocks and Trade of Cotton Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42 1
---------------- Beginning Stocks ---------------United UzbekWorld States istan China Total
3,530 4,028 2,609 3,971 3,887 3,939 3,922 6,001 7,448 5,385
Preliminary.
2
1,006 956 1,304 822 635 603 838 743 1,043 843
Estimate.
5,251 8,828 14,052 16,655 19,955 21,133 14,958 14,351 12,858 8,934
26,758 29,884 36,614 40,059 43,684 44,885 41,672 42,452 47,190 37,308
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales --------------------------------- Imports --------------------------------- ------------------------ Exports -----------------------IndoWorld United UzbekWorld nesia Mexico Russia Turkey Total States istan China Total
2,075 2,139 2,147 1,923 2,329 2,076 2,650 2,356 2,250 2,250
580 695 900 1,600 1,488 1,813 1,865 1,900 2,300 1,750
2,159 1,100 1,000 1,225 850 1,600 1,650 1,850 1,700 1,650
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42 1
Preliminary.
Brazil
China
Egypt
France
Germany
3,996 3,904 3,900 3,400 3,900 4,100 4,350 3,950 3,450 3,650
20,200 19,700 20,300 19,600 19,200 22,200 23,500 26,000 28,900 30,400
1,140 1,010 919 1,033 950 850 750 600 900 900
532 484 536 505 495 500 425 425 350 320
660 606 640 650 575 650 600 525 500 475
2
Estimate.
30,618 27,529 28,763 26,488 25,248 28,276 26,479 29,408 30,460 30,735
9,402 7,675 6,865 7,500 4,344 6,750 6,763 11,000 11,900 12,000
5,006 4,524 4,550 4,570 3,812 4,100 3,400 3,400 3,550 3,150
183 21 10 34 681 1,700 446 342 751 150
28,452 27,359 26,494 26,590 23,649 27,226 26,464 29,023 30,629 33,732
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
World Consumption of All Cottons in Specified Countries Year
1,060 574 1,150 1,450 1,139 2,400 1,750 2,868 2,100 2,350
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
India
Italy
Ja p a n
Mexico
Pakistan
United States
Uzbekistan
World Total
10,545 11,977 13,120 12,675 12,620 13,500 13,550 13,275 13,300 13,500
1,539 1,539 1,562 1,612 1,400 1,300 1,330 1,300 1,200 1,100
1,754 1,529 1,401 1,400 1,250 1,280 1,150 1,050 1,000 950
890 1,100 1,600 1,950 2,150 2,400 2,100 2,100 2,200 2,200
6,750 7,200 7,000 7,187 7,000 7,650 8,100 8,500 9,200 9,400
11,198 10,647 11,126 11,349 10,401 10,241 8,882 7,721 7,269 6,400
827 873 750 850 825 850 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,300
84,758 86,040 88,021 87,157 85,350 91,812 91,954 94,511 97,452 98,452
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
65
COTTON
Cents Per Pound ----- 7/8” Middling, Designated Markets (Aug. 1915 - July 1930) 15/16” Middling, Designated Markets (Aug. 1930 - Feb. 1967) 1 1/16” 7 Market Average (Mar. 1967 - date)
Averag e S p o t C o tto n P rices2, C .I.F. N o rth ern E u ro p e Crop Year Begi nni ng Aug. 1
Argentina "C"3 1 1/16"
Australia M 1 3/32"
Cotlook Index A
Cotlook Index B
1990-1 1991-2 1992-3 1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-001
77.06 55.08 64.31 80.20 101.88 82.98 79.71 69.96 57.19 ----
85.58 65.97 64.01 72.81 81.05 93.75 83.24 77.49 66.48 61.97
82.90 63.05 57.70 70.60 92.75 85.61 78.59 72.19 58.91 52.80
77.80 58.50 53.70 67.30 92.40 81.06 74.80 70.69 54.26 49.55
Egypt Gi za4 Greece 81 M 1 3/32"
177.43 128.10 99.24 88.35 93.70 ----------------
84.24 65.90 56.92 58.81 88.64 84.95 75.85 72.03 58.66 51.71
In U.S. Cents Per Pound Mexi co5 M 1 3/32"
Paki stan Si nd/ Punjab6
Tanzani a AR7 Type 3
84.46 68.19 ------82.65 94.94 79.60 81.70 65.78 56.43
77.19 58.14 52.66 54.42 73.75 81.86 73.37 72.93 -------
89.62 68.90 62.24 69.83 ---96.20 79.22 84.04 72.70 55.67
Turkey U.S. Calif. Izmi r8 ACALA 1 3/32" SJV9
81.32 74.66 ---59.80 ---90.38 -------------
92.84 74.47 68.37 77.55 106.40 103.49 89.55 85.11 78.57 68.76
U.S. U.S. Memphis Orleans/ Terr.10 Texas 11 M 1 3/32" M 1 1/32"
88.13 66.35 63.08 72.80 98.67 94.71 82.81 78.12 73.65 60.22
80.35 63.41 58.89 69.78 95.70 90.37 79.77 74.74 70.95 55.67
P reliminary. 2 Generally for prompt shipment. 3 1 1/32 prior to January 20, 1984; 1 1/16 since. 4 Dendera until 1969/70; Giz a 67 1969/70 until December 1983; Giz a 69/75/81 until Nov ember 1990; Giz a 81 since. 5 S. B raz il Ty pe 5, 1 1/32 prior to 1968-69; 1 1/16 until 1987/88; B raz ilian Ty pe 5/6, 1 1/16 since. 6 P unj ab until 1979/80; Sind SG until June 1984; Sind/P unj ab SG until January 1985; A fz al 1 until January 1986; A fz al 1 1/32 since. 7 8 No. 1 until 1978/79; No. 1/2 until F ebruary 1986; A R ' Mwanz a No. 3 until January 1992; A R ' Ty pe 3 since. I z mir ST 1 W hite 1 1/16 R G prior to 1981/82; 1 3/32 from 1981/82 until January 1987; I z mir/A ntaly a ST 1 W hite -3/32 R G since. 9 SM 1 3/32 prior to 1975/76; SM 1 1/8 since. 10 SM 1 1/16 prior to 1981/82; Middling 1 3/32 since. 11 Middling 1 prior to 1988/89; Middling 1 1/32 since. S ource: I nt ernat ional C ot t on Advisory C ommit t ee 1
Average Producer Price Index of Gray Cotton Broadw ovens Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
109.9 117.8 123.6 120.3 122.8 117.1 112.1 112.8 110.7 105.7
110.8 120.2 123.7 120.8 122.0 117.3 111.1 113.1 109.9 105.2
115.4 120.7 122.0 120.7 122.1 118.8 106.9 113.1 110.1 105.0
115.7 121.6 122.0 120.8 121.5 116.5 108.2 112.7 108.1 105.9
114.9 123.4 121.1 121.2 121.8 116.4 108.6 112.8 107.3 106.0
114.9 123.6 120.7 120.6 120.8 116.1 107.7 112.9 108.0 106.7
115.0 124.1 120.7 121.4 120.0 116.5 108.3 113.2 106.9 107.2
117.5 125.4 119.9 121.6 119.1 112.9 108.8 112.9 107.0 109.1
117.6 125.3 119.7 121.4 118.8 112.9 110.1 112.9 106.9 109.6
118.9 123.7 120.4 120.8 118.1 113.1 110.2 112.0 105.9 110.5
117.2 123.7 120.0 121.6 117.3 112.6 112.3 111.2 105.7 110.5
118.0 123.8 120.4 121.2 117.8 108.6 112.3 111.1 106.2 108.7
116.2 122.6 121.2 121.0 120.2 114.9 109.7 112.6 107.7 107.5
Preliminary.
66
Index 1982 = 100
Jan.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (0337-01), U.S. Department of Commerce
COTTON Average Price of Strict Low Midd. 11/16,Cotton at Designated U.S. Mkts Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
In Cents Per Pound (Net Weight)
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
70.32 85.90 76.15 71.61 71.87 49.72 59.33 36.05 39.20 51.94
71.10 90.00 75.24 70.75 71.75 48.39 60.62 33.22 37.91 58.02
67.58 84.65 72.21 69.46 67.61 49.46 60.54 28.42 39.62 69.38
72.00 84.16 70.12 68.90 64.95 48.12 62.16 31.23 44.98 68.88
81.92 82.18 71.98 64.57 59.88 46.65 61.04 32.21 46.38 65.09
88.11 81.81 70.53 62.75 56.20 51.92 56.66 32.13 48.60 68.21
91.89 81.56 70.53 63.66 55.46 54.29 54.10 31.60 51.35
104.20 81.13 71.12 67.04 58.17 57.67 47.22 33.23 53.82
104.94 84.69 69.09 61.88 57.01 53.76 42.19 31.86 53.38
105.38 83.22 69.30 65.21 55.54 58.31 40.02 31.14 48.94
106.96 80.23 71.03 73.50 53.74 54.97 37.38 36.36 50.92
93.26 76.84 71.83 74.18 49.23 55.13 37.48 39.78 54.45
88.14 83.03 71.59 67.79 60.12 52.36 51.56 33.10 47.46 63.59
1 2 Preliminary. Grade 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49 , strength 23.5-26.4. U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service,
Average Spot Cotton, 1 3/32 , Price (SLM) at Designated U.S. Markets
In Cents Per Pound (Net Weight)
Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-42 1
Preliminary.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
71.46 88.31 77.97 73.69 73.93 52.90 62.60 38.88 42.31 55.87
72.42 92.71 76.92 72.64 73.75 51.27 63.62 36.11 41.07 61.76
68.82 87.06 73.90 71.13 69.90 52.43 63.13 31.55 43.08 73.27
73.38 86.43 71.74 70.35 67.18 51.51 65.08 34.03 48.78 72.63
83.41 84.25 75.75 66.30 62.18 49.73 64.73 34.82 50.70 68.90
89.92 84.32 72.53 64.55 58.56 55.02 60.18 34.55 52.87
94.25 84.04 72.86 65.78 58.27 57.38 57.18 34.08 55.34
106.66 83.65 73.60 69.25 61.34 61.02 50.08 36.04 57.88
107.50 87.25 71.23 64.31 60.33 57.52 44.94 34.84 57.54
107.93 85.90 71.38 67.66 58.89 63.09 42.54 34.03 52.96
109.52 82.71 73.25 76.02 56.85 59.28 39.88 39.31 55.09
96.31 78.86 74.04 76.63 52.61 58.80 39.96 42.86 58.46
90.13 85.46 73.76 69.86 62.82 55.83 54.49 35.93 51.34 45.19
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
Average Spot Prices of U.S. Cotton1, Base Quality (SLM) at Designated Markets Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1993-42 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-33 1 3
In Cents Per Pound
Dallas (East Tex.-Okl.)
Fresno (San Joaquin Valley)
Greenville (Southeast)
Greenwood (South Delta)
Lubbock (West Texas)
Memphis (North Delta)
Phoenix Desert (Southwest)
Average
66.22 86.96 80.89 70.29 65.93 57.66 50.49 51.03 32.59 46.76
65.04 93.73 87.40 74.47 71.79 63.78 56.67 52.45 34.64 47.52
67.46 87.17 83.86 72.33 68.60 62.06 53.81 52.63 33.02 48.28
67.04 87.25 83.76 72.11 68.36 61.82 53.34 52.32 33.24 48.46
65.92 86.66 80.64 69.89 65.88 57.76 50.12 50.71 32.39 46.51
67.04 87.25 83.76 72.11 68.36 61.82 53.34 52.32 33.24 48.47
64.16 87.96 80.90 69.88 65.63 55.92 48.79 49.47 32.60 46.27
66.13 88.14 83.03 71.58 67.79 60.12 52.36 51.56 33.10 47.46
Prices are for mixed lots, net weight, uncompressed in warehouse. 2 1993 prices are for mixed lots, net weight, compressed, FOB car/truck. Preliminary. Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
Average Price1 Received by Farmers for Upland Cotton in the United States
In Cents Per Pound
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-42
66.8 72.2 71.9 67.0 66.0 52.7 51.4 37.3 33.0 46.3
65.9 74.8 71.6 69.6 66.2 45.3 50.6 36.5 35.2 55.7
66.2 74.2 71.5 69.4 65.9 46.3 55.5 30.7 39.4 68.0
68.5 75.0 69.7 67.9 64.6 44.3 58.0 27.8 43.0 63.4
73.3 75.7 69.3 63.8 60.6 42.8 57.8 30.8 44.3 64.1
78.7 76.4 67.9 61.1 58.1 43.1 52.1 27.3 45.5 63.8
80.2 75.7 68.1 62.5 55.6 46.8 48.5 28.0 45.2
82.6 76.8 69.3 63.9 55.1 47.7 41.1 28.4 47.3
77.6 78.9 67.6 63.6 55.6 45.4 42.6 27.2 45.0
76.2 76.7 68.3 63.5 55.0 47.6 40.9 26.7 45.6
86.5 76.9 67.1 69.7 54.6 45.1 39.2 33.7 45.3
80.1 73.6 67.5 68.0 53.8 48.8 38.9 35.3 46.9
72.0 75.4 69.3 65.2 60.2 45.0 49.8 29.8 43.0 60.2
1
Weighted average by sales.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
67
COTTON Purchases Reported by Exchanges in Designated U.S. Spot Markets1 Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
Aug.
Sept.
1994-5 92,401 1995-6 60,442 1996-7 62,884 1997-8 48,504 1998-9 27,193 1999-00 83,564 2000-1 63,607 2001-2 118,000 2002-3 43,047 2003-4 125,240
98,251 38,855 73,925 106,503 52,066 95,241 69,083 94,697 49,671 245,295
1
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
426,371 1,075,829 1,491,429 608,701 73,857 209,279 381,943 765,502 148,337 477,331 613,430 696,494 323,400 367,010 617,470 655,432 114,998 229,743 498,082 414,832 195,370 320,434 517,579 744,400 143,938 323,891 288,242 217,755 214,785 644,860 225,869 289,778 194,020 204,564 369,838 481,730 273,028 167,285 321,083 417,090
233,159 153,758 412,095 482,625 191,872 294,843 215,318 180,362 432,055
Mar.
May
149,762 49,192 44,228 241,197 225,797 73,459 242,606 72,234 130,163 396,946 92,072 210,906 236,762 71,993 63,335 189,460 89,473 129,879 191,667 274,185 193,774 278,853 84,259 155,391 169,064 170,951 213,679
Production of Cotton (Upland and American-Pima) in the U.S.
June
Market Total
July
43,821 13,244 59,042 31,324 201,557 93,205 105,139 39,647 62,192 64,092 49,012 33,942 152,905 167,647 143,422 93,489 149,780 86,830
4,326,388 2,314,455 3,224,261 3,445,654 2,027,160 2,743,197 2,302,012 2,523,765 2,565,229 3,098,042
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Upland ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------AlaArkanLouisMissisNorth South Tenbama Arizona sas California Georgia iana sippi Missouri Carolina Carolina nessee Texas
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
Apr.
Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (AMS-USDA)
seven markets.
Year
In Running Bales
726 492 789 550 553 625 543 920 570 820
Preliminary.
2
862 793 778 847 608 716 791 690 613 560
Forecasted.
1,772 1,468 1,636 1,683 1,209 1,428 1,425 1,833 1,669 1,780
2,902 2,312 2,390 2,191 1,146 1,580 2,210 1,770 1,460 1,500
1,537 1,941 2,079 1,919 1,542 1,567 1,663 2,220 1,578 2,150
1,512 1,375 1,286 986 641 901 911 1,034 739 1,020
2,132 1,841 1,876 1,821 1,444 1,731 1,711 2,396 1,935 2,100
615 513 591 565 350 472 540 695 610 690
829 798 1,002 930 1,026 816 1,429 1,673 806 1,100
393 376 455 410 350 281 379 423 131 330
885 724 675 662 546 595 710 978 818 860
Total AmericanPima
4,968 4,460 4,345 5,140 3,600 5,050 3,940 4,260 5,040 4,200
337.7 367.6 528.5 548.0 442.3 674.3 389.1 700.4 678.3 429.0
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Cotton Production and Yield Estimates ---------- Forecast of Production (1,000 Bales of 480 Lbs.1) ---------Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Jan. 1
Actual Crop
19,195 21,811 18,577 17,783 14,263 18,304 19,159 20,003 18,439 17,104
19,025 20,266 17,900 18,418 13,563 17,535 18,315 19,992 18,134 16,939
19,303 18,771 18,189 18,410 13,288 16,430 17,485 20,072 18,070 17,559
19,453 18,838 18,594 18,848 13,231 16,531 17,510 20,175 17,815 18,215
19,573 18,236 18,738 18,819 13,452 16,875 17,399 20,064 17,375 18,215
19,728 17,971 18,951 18,977 -------------------
19,662 17,900 18,942 18,793 13,918 16,968 17,220 20,084 17,209 18,224
Net weight bales.
------ Forecasts of Yield (Lbs. Per Harvested Acre) -----Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Jan. 1
Actual Crop
690 663 686 637 640 649 648 670 675 667
690 615 661 658 614 621 622 679 675 667
690 574 673 665 616 588 620 681 674 696
695 567 698 673 612 592 622 685 665 722
699 551 704 672 621 604 619 691 648 722
710 540 709 686 -------------------
708 537 705 673 625 607 631 698 665 725
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Supply and Distribution of Upland Cotton in the United States
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
-------------------- Area -------------------- --------------------------- Supply --------------------------- ---------------------- Disappearance ----------------------
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
13,552 16,717 14,376 13,648 13,064 14,584 15,347 15,499 13,714 13,304
1
Planted
Harvested
----- 1,000 Acres -----
13,156 15,796 12,612 13,157 10,449 13,138 12,884 13,560 12,184 11,880
Yield Lbs./Acre
Beginning Stocks3
Production4
Imports
705 533 701 666 619 595 626 694 651 719
3,303 2,588 2,543 3,920 3,822 3,836 3,665 5,879 7,120 5,140
19,324 17,532 18,413 18,245 13,476 16,294 16,799 19,603 16,530 17,795
18 400 403 13 431 53 8 5 8 20
Total
Mill Use
Exports
Total
Ending Stocks
22,645 20,520 21,359 22,178 17,729 20,183 20,472 25,487 23,659 22,933
11,109 10,538 11,020 11,234 10,254 10,055 8,738 7,592 7,166 6,110
8,978 7,375 6,399 7,060 4,056 6,303 6,303 10,603 11,266 12,675
20,087 17,913 17,419 18,294 14,264 16,358 15,041 18,195 18,432 18,785
2,588 2,543 3,920 3,822 3,836 3,665 5,879 7,120 5,140 4,148
Farm Price5 Cents/Lb.
72.0 75.4 69.3 65.2 60.2 45.0 49.8 29.8 44.5
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Excludes preseason ginnings (adjusted to 480-lb. bale net weight basis). 4 I ncludes preseason ginnings. 5 Marketing year average price. 6 Average of 5 cheapest types of SLM 1 3/32 staple length cotton offered on the European market. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
68
COTTON
Average Open Interest of #2 Cotton Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
54,424 71,353 58,001 59,909 89,358 79,598 63,987 71,849 64,096 83,775
55,558 75,100 60,231 65,392 86,739 75,794 67,720 73,383 64,572 89,852
53,724 79,090 57,542 72,130 81,236 62,857 69,788 71,389 63,451 91,336
54,670 71,488 61,795 76,779 85,505 60,384 56,038 70,407 63,827 78,658
52,830 71,714 64,555 73,464 84,562 61,470 54,058 66,680 67,601 73,146
51,001 68,159 62,342 70,296 90,178 66,789 48,024 64,032 65,848 69,137
52,357 65,656 61,921 73,893 81,652 68,975 53,621 61,183 74,892 62,565
50,597 69,653 60,182 79,309 78,571 65,690 63,069 65,257 72,612 62,781
50,955 69,528 58,168 87,134 85,378 63,976 73,735 65,496 69,554 80,348
51,561 65,768 58,415 92,430 88,970 60,369 67,767 59,777 71,526 108,981
53,563 38,475 57,397 89,150 88,917 63,746 65,017 56,896 82,802 97,809
59,065 35,996 47,652 87,120 77,873 61,474 62,931 58,156 74,685 79,437
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of #2 Cotton Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
210,011 223,073 215,882 201,610 221,308 179,049 270,792 267,930 156,834 202,615
207,421 290,600 196,225 253,475 289,222 244,300 279,566 270,876 248,299 267,234
210,363 286,098 147,393 302,609 310,075 209,127 248,017 237,356 162,781 217,791
252,614 219,187 251,786 258,851 362,688 250,622 220,222 215,903 237,861 325,627
179,591 214,052 236,684 175,227 218,595 157,552 232,947 175,808 188,340 249,314
208,945 185,276 264,047 314,406 407,922 260,649 272,023 214,513 234,442 271,822
161,688 183,171 131,183 234,718 226,138 187,631 147,878 132,065 170,893 164,027
128,879 199,050 177,430 202,008 230,752 178,236 175,707 118,685 128,185 127,080
140,574 191,534 166,629 212,966 195,690 175,282 154,735 98,947 145,946 283,988
179,604 196,676 229,305 216,771 303,849 193,552 172,875 152,702 199,779 422,132
205,936 195,601 229,281 266,800 272,775 298,531 242,013 258,847 296,859 356,052
203,021 141,116 128,010 197,839 161,816 120,120 180,982 116,033 157,741 148,310
2,289,998 2,525,434 2,373,855 2,837,280 3,200,830 2,454,651 2,597,757 2,259,665 2,327,960 3,035,992
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
69
COTTON Daily Rate of Upland Cotton Mill Consumption2 on Cotton-System Spinning Spindles in the U.S. In Thousands of Running Bales Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Average
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
41.0 38.8 40.5 40.7 39.3 36.1 36.4 28.8 27.1 22.7
41.4 39.4 40.7 42.4 38.7 36.4 35.6 28.1 27.8 22.5
41.1 37.6 40.5 42.0 39.9 37.3 34.5 27.5 27.3 22.5
41.8 38.1 41.5 42.4 37.4 37.2 33.0 26.3 27.7 24.0
41.7 37.9 41.1 43.9 37.5 37.6 34.4 27.1 28.5 24.2
42.6 37.5 41.3 41.8 38.6 36.8 33.5 27.1 26.8
42.1 38.1 40.4 41.7 38.2 37.5 31.9 27.5 26.7
42.4 39.5 39.4 41.1 37.9 37.6 31.8 27.9 26.4
41.1 39.4 41.0 40.5 37.8 37.5 30.6 27.4 25.7
40.2 39.6 41.0 40.8 37.5 37.0 29.7 28.1 24.6
39.2 40.5 40.9 40.0 37.7 38.1 27.6 29.0 24.2
37.2 39.8 42.5 41.5 36.8 36.5 28.6 31.9 25.7
41.0 38.9 40.9 41.6 38.1 37.1 32.3 28.1 26.5 23.2
1
Preliminary.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of the Census: U.S. Department of Commerce
Consumption of American and Foreign Cotton in the United States
In Thousands of Running Bales
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
870 829 847 868 835 762 766 616 574 476
1,070 1,020 1,028 1,100 1,013 949 929 751 733 599
873 798 829 872 834 793 741 600 585 482
838 761 816 855 758 757 663 521 545 468
897 801 858 951 796 801 749 563 598 508
858 744 810 848 979 736 661 541 671
878 787 819 861 795 769 657 580 556
1,097 1,029 1,014 1,068 983 966 837 759 708
847 810 834 839 777 772 641 575 541
842 824 840 854 793 771 628 594 523
999 1,040 1,044 1,017 970 990 727 754 616
681 731 781 770 678 670 510 571 456
10,750 10,216 10,519 10,902 10,210 9,735 8,510 7,425 7,106 6,078
1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Exports of All Cotton2 from the United States
In Thousands of Running Bales
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
531 315 257 458 402 254 430 612 472 810
333 245 171 299 280 146 336 824 653 555
341 452 277 400 265 167 382 678 373 446
710 733 573 581 795 455 435 649 626 758
1,098 1,230 899 774 1,027 654 541 927 935 1,116
1,115 1,262 666 734 156 658 564 964 1,206
1,383 1,295 728 777 182 736 614 1,042 873
1,392 777 848 888 221 978 720 1,225 1,597
1,104 576 711 669 169 708 568 999 1,174
684 343 631 477 256 659 692 842 1,150
410 263 604 574 260 508 784 1,067 1,273
300 183 501 571 330 479 648 679 1,231
9,402 7,675 6,866 7,202 4,344 6,402 6,715 10,505 11,561 8,845
1
Preliminary.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
U.S. Exports of American Cotton to Countries of Destination Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 1
Preliminary.
70
In Thousands of 480-Pound Bales
Canada
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Mexico
Philippines
Taiwan
Thailand
165 253 294 253 288 281 245 322 235 303
1,183 2,257 1,845 1,756 737 71 147 124 306 1,800
314 347 223 129 151 245 316 287 407 364
653 925 794 594 464 229 573 558 947 842
96 83 115 46 85 29 61 52 58 79
790 1,061 940 630 637 406 424 355 385 355
976 951 769 568 712 381 307 489 577 390
653 558 618 733 1,447 1,359 1,500 1,760 1,516 1,784
168 173 144 84 53 59 71 42 126 103
277 441 331 197 220 82 257 237 693 576
356 352 255 255 376 249 476 367 693 546
2
Estimate.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
United Kingdom
Total
65 6,847 89 9,401 85 7,674 66 6,862 13 7,202 6 4,298 4 6,401 1 6,740 0 10,397 4 11,235
COTTON Cotton1 Government Loan Program in the United States Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8
Support Target Put Under Price Price Support -- Cents Per Lb. -- Ths Bales
52.35 50.00 51.92 51.92 51.92
72.9 72.9 72.9 NA NA
% of Production
7,721 4,716 3,478 3,340 4,281
Owned Crop Year Acquired July 31 Beginning ----- Ths. Bales ----Aug. 1
49.0 24.4 19.8 18.1 23.5
1 Upland. 2 Preliminary. 3 Less than 500 bales. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
3
14
3
3
Support Target Put Under Price Price Support -- Cents Per Lb. -- Ths Bales
1998-9 1999-00 0 2000-1 0 2001-22 0 2002-32
0 0 0
NA = Not applicable.
Production of Cotton Cloth1 in the United States
51.92 51.92 51.92 51.92 52.00
NA NA NA NA 74.2
Owned Acquired July 31 ----- Ths. Bales -----
% of Production
4,724 8,721 8,837 13,655
36.8 54.9 52.6 69.7
31 2 6 2
3 1 5 2
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Millions of Square Yards
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total Year
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
1,073 1,169 1,182 1,211 1,226
1,125 1,137 1,230 1,276 1,167
1,131 1,090 1,198 1,283 1,218
1,143 1,093 1,187 1,309 1,142
4,473 4,488 4,796 5,078 4,753
1999 2000 2001 2002 20032
1,170 1,075 1,047 893 841
1,164 1,129 976 912 781
1,078 1,111 873 894 664
1,039 1,079 811 825
4,451 4,395 3,706 3,524 3,048
1
Cotton broadwoven goods over 12 inches in width.
2
Preliminary.
Cotton Ginnings1 in the United States To: Crop Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-42 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1 Sept. 15
113 17 48 2 146 81 245 99 56 29
Excluding linters.
680 433 342 359 523 561 842 609 537 567 2
943 898 637 683 739 1,018 1,454 802 898 958
Preliminary.
Oct. 15
Nov. 1
Nov. 15
D e c. 1
D e c. 1 5
Jan. 1
Jan. 15
F eb. 1
2,324 2,455 2,146 1,210 2,056 2,690 3,264 2,007 1,648 2,004
5,002 4,795 4,780 3,752 4,265 4,885 5,930 4,562 3,523 3,827
8,878 8,430 8,876 7,930 7,359 8,263 9,221 8,748 6,685 7,396
12,479 11,262 11,906 11,601 9,366 11,006 11,546 12,522 9,294 10,527
15,587 14,199 14,623 14,735 11,310 13,379 13,657 15,498 12,367 13,477
17,465 16,101 16,528 16,662 12,558 14,992 15,364 17,727 14,395 15,686
18,438 17,011 17,681 17,613 13,160 15,965 16,097 18,672 15,689 16,914
18,842 17,292 18,101 18,013 13,376 16,322 16,518 19,242 16,337 17,426
19,028 17,416 18,308 18,170 13,458 16,468 16,648 19,587 16,589 17,620
Jan . F eb . Mar. Apr. May Ju n e July A ug . Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
100.76 86.24 76.29 74.21 61.45 64.06 47.08 45.56 62.54 54.39 56.13 60.16 59.84 56.09 57.12 60.97 58.44 64.75 75.14 77.01 70.48
Total Crop
19,127 17,469 18,439 18,301 13,534 16,528 16,742 19,771 17,206
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
------------ Cotton1 -----------Raw5 Actual Equivalent
Year
In Thousands of Running Bales
Oct. 1
Fiber Prices in the United States
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20036
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
111.95 95.83 84.77 82.45 68.28 71.17 52.32 50.63 69.49 60.43 62.37 66.84 66.49 62.32 63.47 67.74 64.93 71.94 83.49 85.57 78.31
In Cents Per Pound --------------- Rayon2 --------------Raw5 Actual Equivalent
118.67 118.00 115.00 110.25 98.92 97.58 98.50 97.83 90.25 94.00 93.00 93.00 92.00 92.00 90.00 88.00 88.00 88.00 88.00 88.00 89.00
123.61 122.92 119.79 114.84 103.04 101.65 102.61 101.91 94.01 97.92 96.88 96.88 95.83 95.83 93.75 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 92.71
------------ Polyester3 -----------Raw5 Actual Equivalent
88.83 81.10 69.50 62.50 51.67 57.08 60.42 61.17 60.67 61.00 61.00 62.00 63.00 63.00 62.00 60.00 59.00 59.00 59.00 59.00 60.00
92.53 84.48 72.40 65.11 53.82 59.46 62.93 63.72 63.20 63.54 63.54 64.58 65.63 65.63 64.58 62.50 61.46 61.46 61.46 61.46 62.50
Price Ratios4 ---------- in Percent ---------Cotton/ Cotton/ Rayon Polyester
.91 .78 .71 .72 .66 .70 .52 .50 .74 .62 .64 .69 .69 .65 .68 .74 .71 .79 .91 .93 .85
1.21 1.14 1.17 1.29 1.27 1.19 .83 .79 1.11 .95 .98 1.04 1.04 1.01 .98 1.08 1.06 1.17 1.36 1.39 1.25
1
SLM-1 1/16 at group B Mill points, net weight. 2 1.5 and 3.0 denier, regular rayon staples. 3 Reported average market price for 1.5 denier polyester staple for cotton blending. 4 Raw fiber equivalent. 5 Actual prices converted to estimated raw fiber equivalent as follows: cotton, divided by 0.90, rayon and polyester, divided by 0.96. 6 Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
71
Cottonseed and Products Cottonseed is crushed to produce both oil and meal. Oil is typically used for cooking oil and the meal is fed to livestock. Before the cottonseed is crushed for oil and meal, it is delinted of its linters. Linters are used for padding in furniture, absorbent cotton swabs, and for manufacture of many cellulose products. The sediment left by cottonseed oil refining, called foots, provides fatty acids for industrial products. The value of cottonseeds represents a hefty 18% of a cotton producer’s income. Prices – The price of cottonseed oil in 2003 rose sharply by 59% to 37.00 cents/pound from 23.34 cents in 2002, and more than double the dismal 2001 price of 15.41. The price of cottonseed meal in 2003 rose to an average $149 per short ton, up from $141.37 in 2002. Cottonseed oil and meal prices were boosted throughout 2003 by the sharp 50% rally seen in cotton prices. Supply – World production of cottonseed was forecast
World Production of Cottonseed Crop Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 1
Preliminary.
at 34.83 million metric tons, up from 32.84 million in 2002/ 3. World ending stocks in 2003/4 are forecasted at 360,000 metric tons, down from 380,000 in 2002/3. World production of cottonseed oil was forecast to rise to 3.74 million metric tons in 2003/4 from 3.49 million in 2002/3. World production of cottonseed meal in 2003/4 was forecast to rise to 11.90 million metric tons from 11.17 million in 2002/3. US production of cottonseed in 2003/4 rose to 6.689 million short tons from 6.184 million in 2002/3. US stocks fell to 347,000 tons from 400,000 tons in 2002/3. A total of 2.750 million tons of cottonseed were forecasted to be crushed in 2003/4, up from 2.495 million tons in 2002/3. Trade – World trade in cottonseed was forecast at 1.07 million metric tons in 2003/4, a little higher than 1.06 million in 2002/3. That accounts for only 3% of world production, showing that most countries use the cottonseed domestically.
In Thousands of Metric Ton
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
Egypt
Greece
India
Mexico
Pakistan
Turkey
United States
Former USSR
World Total
638 748 564 542 337 223 257 102 85
474 595 859 941 1,012 1,047 1,062 968 371
980 690 568 763 961 1,310 1,720 1,407 1,520
7,727 8,487 7,481 8,193 8,012 6,817 7,868 9,470 8,758
411 384 560 564 379 375 340 518 475
574 725 540 590 665 730 720 700 650
4,709 5,339 5,890 5,150 5,420 5,300 4,800 5,370 4,700
187 344 421 348 369 237 128 154 68
2,959 3,604 3,189 3,124 2,990 3,824 3,651 3,610 3,400
930 1,288 1,220 1,193 1,282 1,315 1,289 1,240 1,370
6,898 6,213 6,480 6,291 4,867 5,764 5,838 6,761 5,823
3,380 3,150 2,707 2,692 2,580 2,832 2,530 2,716 2,581
33,129 35,290 34,557 34,522 32,868 33,695 34,021 37,055 33,568
2
Source: The Oil World
Estimate.
Salient Statistics of Cottonseed in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons -- Products Produced --
-------------------- Supply --------------------
Crop Year Beginning Aug. 1
------------------------ Disappearance -----------------------Total ProTotal D i sa p pearance Stocks duction Supply Crush Exports Other --------------------------------------------- In Thousands of Short Tons ------------------------------------------
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42 1
551 517 523 563 393 274 427 400 347
Preliminary.
2
6,849 7,144 6,935 5,365 6,354 6,436 7,452 6,184 6,694
Estimate.
7,399 7,681 7,553 6,135 7,055 7,084 8,206 6,688 7,266
3,882 3,860 3,885 2,719 3,079 2,753 2,791 2,495 2,700
114 116 149 68 198 235 274 371 300
2,886 3,182 2,957 2,955 3,505 3,669 4,742 3,475 3,931
6,882 7,158 6,990 5,742 6,781 6,657 7,807 6,341 6,931
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Meal Thousand Sh. Tons
106 126 121 129 89 105 91 101 117
731.0 914.6 835.4 687.2 565.5 675.7 667.3 616.4 784.2
1,229 1,310 1,224 832 939 847 876 725 850
1,748 1,807 1,769 1,232 1,390 1,338 1,294 1,114 1,215
In Dollars Per Short Ton
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
106.75 208.80 207.20 153.10 110.60 126.88 184.00 133.13 157.38
97.50 202.80 183.75 139.10 101.25 130.50 148.75 125.00 143.60
100.30 195.60 189.10 128.70 106.90 129.38 138.13 131.88 142.40
98.10 220.00 189.10 116.25 110.90 125.00 140.00 124.30 142.40
92.75 191.25 193.75 105.00 108.75 123.25 137.50 120.88 131.75
108.75 192.20 190.30 129.40 114.50 130.63 126.88 137.50 131.50
116.90 201.56 170.75 146.65 115.00 131.88 129.69 151.50 143.00
116.50 193.10 176.25 130.30 100.65 130.50 130.63 159.75 151.70
137.60 193.10 192.00 115.60 111.92 153.12 131.25 156.38 153.20
153.25 183.25 189.10 106.50 111.83 150.00 131.25 150.10 163.50
165.00 196.60 189.10 107.90 112.00 141.88 128.13 150.00 182.50
185.80 224.50 190.50 119.75 124.20 160.83 134.17 156.00 185.00
123.27 200.23 188.41 124.85 110.71 136.15 138.37 141.37 152.33
Preliminary.
72
Oil MIllion L b s.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Wholesale Price of Cottonseed Meal (41% Solvent)2 in Memphis Year
Farm Price $/Ton
Value of Production Mil. $
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
COTTONSEED AND PRODUCTS
USD Per Ton ----- 36% Protein, Memphis, TN (Aug. 1910 - Sept. 1920) 41% Protein, Memphis, TN (Oct. 1920 - Sept. 1946) 41% Protein (Expeller), Memphis, TN (Oct. 1946 - Dec. 1981) 41% Protein (Solvent), Clarksdale, MS (Jan. 1982 - date)
Supply and Distribution of Cottonseed Oil in the United States Crop Year Beginning Oct. 1
In Millions of Pounds
Per Capita Cunsump. ------------------------- Supply ------------------------- ----------- Disappearance ----------- of Salad & Cook Oils ProTotal Stocks duction Imports Supply Domestic Exports Total - In Lbs. -
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-31 2003-42
66 79 76 49 93 40 36
1,224 832 939 847 876 725 850
.1 48.2 8.1 ------21.0 ----
1,291 958 1,023 896 969 786 886
1,004 772 833 673 779 639 731
208 111 141 131 150 111 115
1,212 882 974 804 930 750 846
Utiliz ation ------------ Food Uses ------------ --------- Prices ---------
29 28 29 35
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Valley Points FOB; Tank Cars. 4 Rotterdam; US, PBSY, fob gulf. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Shortening
Salad & Cooking Oils
208 170 183 178 200 172
184 262 320 205 317 W
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
663 633 474 352 396 832 723
693 632 496 428 441 982
In Millions of Pounds
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Total
73.1 52.9 51.9 56.9 48.5 48.5 60.1
73.1 49.6 57.3 53.7 63.9 59.5 63.5
77.2 50.2 61.5 56.7 61.6 56.0 61.5
85.0 46.6 60.0 67.4 65.2 66.8
75.7 48.9 58.1 61.6 58.3 55.8
70.2 50.7 67.8 59.5 58.9 57.1
72.1 36.4 62.0 38.1 56.6 59.2
57.1 28.3 52.7 46.0 56.9 49.7
51.9 28.4 43.2 51.4 45.2 42.4
54.9 30.5 22.7 42.8 37.1 31.9
57.5 46.2 45.8 49.6 53.0 38.7
30.1 43.5 37.2 29.8 47.5 34.9
778.1 512.3 620.1 613.6 652.7 600.5 740.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Exports of Cottonseed Oil (Crude and Refined) from the United States Year
414 457 554 426 539 427
W = Withheld proprietary data.
Consumption of Crude Cottonseed Oil in Refining in the United States Year
U.S.3 Rott4 (Crude) (Cif) Total ------ $/Met. Ton ------
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
25,722 24,003 11,541 10,627 14,684 12,905 7,012
26,835 15,077 10,235 9,447 6,638 17,550 8,483
22,647 16,150 7,780 13,181 7,237 12,137 10,413
22,230 22,874 11,387 8,258 10,595 8,319 8,262
30,319 20,791 6,328 7,402 12,722 21,013 9,706
9,535 22,994 7,161 7,550 7,525 9,444 8,134
25,207 15,348 8,725 11,546 10,325 7,863 6,620
24,717 14,392 8,111 10,642 20,809 8,727 8,613
8,919 8,818 9,275 16,467 6,439 6,831 8,764
15,351 11,056 11,060 13,263 19,891 12,698 8,689
24,217 7,610 12,313 11,652 5,662 11,105 9,349
8,164 11,447 23,025 8,898 19,831 10,761 8,127
243,863 190,560 126,941 128,934 142,358 139,353 102,172
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
73
COTTONSEED AND PRODUCTS Cottonseed Crushed (Consumption) in the United States Year
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
264.4 229.2 244.4 246.0 166.8 170.8 186.8 195.1 138.7
245.5 225.0 178.6 174.9 230.7 141.1 147.6 131.4 98.9
337.1 331.7 329.7 272.7 281.6 265.9 267.5 207.8 251.6
386.7 355.1 374.5 254.3 302.5 252.3 287.0 242.5 254.8
362.4 352.6 371.3 262.7 296.4 241.5 273.1 236.6 252.0
402.3 381.0 428.4 282.2 300.2 295.2 281.3 274.5
373.5 362.8 352.3 259.5 299.4 268.7 253.2 224.5
381.4 362.2 370.8 280.2 297.7 261.9 251.8 230.4
349.6 334.4 359.1 205.5 263.5 186.0 243.0 241.5
325.2 351.3 309.1 172.0 250.3 228.3 233.3 203.6
223.7 280.8 278.8 159.9 221.3 241.9 200.3 179.4
209.2 294.0 277.6 149.2 153.5 199.2 166.3 127.4
3,861 3,860 3,875 2,719 3,064 2,753 2,791 2,495 2,390
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of Cottonseed Cake and Meal in the United States Year
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
120.1 100.9 128.2 114.7 82.1 74.1 83.9 92.4 74.9
113.6 99.1 92.1 77.1 107.5 79.3 70.8 79.3 59.5
159.9 146.1 147.8 118.7 132.1 134.1 118.5 95.5 112.3
178.2 161.5 168.7 115.9 140.8 121.4 126.5 112.6 111.0
161.0 158.2 178.2 122.5 138.3 117.1 118.2 108.0 112.5
183.8 174.5 194.4 130.2 135.3 136.0 129.0 123.0
169.8 164.6 158.5 114.8 137.7 118.9 112.5 100.3
168.3 162.1 170.4 127.2 140.2 120.3 115.0 96.7
158.7 152.2 162.3 90.6 120.0 83.4 109.2 108.9
147.1 160.7 141.8 75.6 109.4 101.0 107.9 89.8
102.4 128.6 128.8 75.6 109.3 114.3 96.3 81.4
102.7 123.2 124.0 71.0 79.5 89.7 73.7 63.0
1,766 1,732 1,795 1,234 1,432 1,290 1,261 1,151 1,129
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Production of Crude Cottonseed Oil2 in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
87.8 70.3 80.6 77.8 56.1 55.1 57.5 60.2 45.0
84.3 69.4 66.0 59.6 69.6 52.1 42.2 53.7 40.7
105.2 98.9 97.8 78.3 88.3 84.3 79.4 62.8 77.5
121.6 114.8 120.3 80.0 95.4 76.8 86.2 72.1 78.2
111.6 115.9 119.6 80.6 94.2 73.5 81.7 67.9 79.0
130.9 123.9 136.4 84.0 93.4 85.9 87.5 80.8
121.4 114.8 111.1 80.2 93.2 78.4 78.3 65.6
125.6 114.7 115.5 86.7 93.8 76.4 78.2 66.7
110.4 103.7 112.7 64.4 82.6 53.9 74.6 71.0
101.9 109.8 96.1 53.4 75.7 66.8 74.5 59.9
73.3 86.9 87.3 52.4 70.2 66.6 61.8 52.8
76.7 85.9 88.8 45.9 49.2 55.7 50.6 39.9
1,251 1,209 1,232 843 962 826 853 753 769
1
Preliminary.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Production of Refined Cottonseed Oil in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
Year
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Total
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
80.5 62.4 57.4 55.8 44.8 44.4 49.4 52.7 38.5
69.0 53.0 38.1 29.1 42.4 36.2 29.6 47.1 34.6
74.0 64.9 48.3 51.1 50.4 55.1 48.2 48.3 59.8
89.5 82.8 71.0 47.9 55.6 52.2 63.6 59.2 63.5
86.9 82.2 74.8 48.5 59.5 54.9 61.3 55.7 61.5
91.7 85.9 82.2 45.4 58.3 65.7 64.9 66.5
84.6 80.7 73.1 47.3 56.7 59.8 58.0 55.6
89.8 78.1 68.2 49.0 65.8 57.8 58.5 56.8
81.7 75.2 69.8 35.2 60.0 36.9 56.2 58.9
75.0 76.9 55.2 27.4 51.0 44.8 56.7 49.4
53.8 56.4 50.3 27.5 41.9 50.0 45.2 42.4
54.5 53.6 53.0 29.7 22.0 41.5 36.8 31.7
931 852 741 494 608 599 628 624 619
1
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Stocks of Cottonseed Oil (Crude and Refined) in the U.S., at End of Month Year
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
74
In Millions of Pounds
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
87.8 101.2 78.0 97.3 107.8 59.9 97.7 46.1 50.5
82.1 94.1 66.4 78.6 76.0 49.0 91.8 39.7 36.0
82.6 97.5 68.6 89.1 81.1 66.5 113.8 32.8 51.9
89.3 102.5 86.4 110.0 88.7 75.2 112.9 40.2 56.1
94.8 106.0 105.3 85.5 85.1 95.0 109.8 38.0 68.2
118.2 120.9 133.8 109.5 84.5 109.5 124.9 46.1
147.2 133.7 141.2 113.3 79.6 134.4 120.3 58.8
151.2 137.5 140.7 125.3 115.2 139.9 106.9 72.2
155.6 131.7 159.8 126.0 127.4 133.5 110.3 83.3
143.3 116.1 150.4 112.0 127.5 123.5 97.3 84.2
128.1 103.4 130.9 100.7 103.0 126.8 82.7 91.4
125.4 85.9 118.8 83.7 81.3 114.0 61.8 64.0
Source: Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
COTTONSEED AND PRODUCTS
Cents Per Pound ----- Crude, FOB Southeast Mills (Aug. 1909 - Dec. 1974) PBSY, Greenwood, MS (Jan. 1975 - date)
Average Price of Crude Cottonseed Oil, PBSY, Greenw ood, MS.1 in Tank Cars Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
33.16 28.70 24.45 25.21 27.69 31.72 21.98 16.24 16.38 49.82
29.96 29.95 24.35 25.44 29.37 28.21 22.65 15.20 15.89 49.90
29.60 27.14 24.25 26.18 30.46 26.27 23.70 15.53 16.77 47.52
29.06 27.61 26.77 25.10 32.47 24.39 24.57 14.03 16.98 44.57
29.66 27.51 28.46 25.19 33.13 24.25 22.97 14.53 17.95 42.33
27.55 30.04 27.94 25.01 30.22 25.19 21.54 13.27 19.48 28.69
24.20 30.63 28.25 26.53 29.40 24.70 21.03 16.78 21.30 24.38
23.71 30.26 27.81 27.11 30.11 21.39 20.17 17.18 22.32 25.51
24.51 28.61 26.13 28.03 33.26 20.22 18.52 15.78 22.32 29.64
23.64 27.61 24.55 28.47 33.99 20.15 18.16 14.44 26.84 32.93
24.85 26.27 24.28 29.11 34.16 19.69 17.83 15.91 36.90 32.24
25.50 26.10 24.29 26.78 33.40 21.25 17.25 16.07 46.89 33.26
27.12 26.36 25.96 26.51 31.47 23.95 20.86 15.41 23.34 36.73
Data prior to 1995 are F.O.B. Valley Points, Southeastern mills.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Exports of Cottonseed Oil to Important Countries from the United States Year
Canada
Dominican Republic
7.5 10.3
Mexico
29.8 17.9 15.8 11.3 6.0 4.2 7.6 6.5 5.4 3.5
10.3 5.7 3.3 2.5 6.1 5.4 7.9 8.6 6.9 7.2
El Salvador
South Korea
1.9 1.4
26.1 37.8 20.6 25.3 16.1 .8
16.9 19.2 7.2 1.9 2.1 .0 .1 2.5 4.7 .7
10.8 12.0 23.2 28.0 37.6 37.5 40.2 26.0 36.4 33.8
1
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
.0 .0 .1 .0 .0
12.3 1.9 1.7 .4
Ja p a n
.5 3.0
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Netherlands
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 Preliminary.
.0
Egypt
Guatemala
4.2 .5 .4 3.1
4.8 1.8 .0
Turkey
Venezuela
4.4 2.8 .0 2.5 .0
.3
Total
135.6 137.7 96.0 110.6 86.9 57.0 58.5 64.6 63.2 46.3
75
Reuters-CRB Futures Index The Reuters Commodity Research Bureau Futures Price Index was first calculated by Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. in 1957 and made its inaugural appearance in the 1958 CRB Commodity Year Book. The Index originally consisted of two cash markets and 26 futures markets which were traded on exchanges in the U.S. and Canada. It included barley and flaxseed from the Winnipeg exchange; cocoa, coffee “B”, copper, cotton, cottonseed oil, grease wool, hides, lead, potatoes, rubber, sugar #4, sugar #6, wool tops and zinc from New York exchanges; and corn, oats, wheat, rye, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, lard, onions, and eggs from Chicago exchanges. In addition to those 26, the Index also included the spot New Orleans cotton and Minneapolis wheat markets. Like the Bureau of Labor Statistics spot index, the Reuters-CRB Futures Price Index is calculated to produce an unweighted geometric mean of the individual commodity price relatives. In other words, a ratio of the current
price to the base year average price. Currently, 1967 is the base year the Index is calculated against (1967 = 100). The formula considers all future delivery contracts that expire on or before the end of the sixth calendar month from the current date, using up to a maximum of five contracts per commodity. However, a minimum of two contracts must be used to calculate the current price, even if the second contract is outside the six-month window. Contracts are excluded when in their delivery period. The 2003 closing value of 255.29 was 8.86 percent higher than the 2002 close of 234.52. 14 of the 17 component commodities finished higher for the year. Futures Markets Futures and options on the Reuters-CRB Futures Price Index are traded on the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT).
Reuters-CRB Futures Index Component Commodities by Group Groups: Energy:
Components Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Natural Gas
Grains and Oilseeds:
Corn, Soybeans, Wheat
Industrials:
Copper, Cotton
Livestock:
Live Cattle, Live Hogs
Precious Metals:
Gold, Platinum, Silver
Softs:
Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Sugar #11
The Reuters-CRB Futures Index is computed using a three-step process: 1) Each of the Index’s 17 component commodities is arithmetically averaged using the prices for all of the designated contract months which expire on or before the end of the sixth calendar month from the current date, except that: a) no contract shall be included in the calculation while in delivery; b) there shall be a minimum of two contract months for each component commodity (adding contracts beyond the six month window if necessary); c) there shall be a maximum of five contract months for each commodity (dropping the most deferred contracts to remain at five, if necessary). The result is that the Index extends six to seven months into the future depending on where one is in the current month. For example, live cattle’s average price on October 30, 1995 would be computed as follows:
Cattle Average =
Dec. ‘96 + Feb. ‘97 2
2) These 17 component averages are then geometrically averaged by multiplying all of the numbers together and taking the 17th root. Geometric Average = 17 √ Crude Avg. * Heating Oil Avg. * Sugar Avg.... 3) The resulting average is divided by 30.7766, the 1967 base-year average for these 17 commodities. That result is then multiplied by an adjustment factor of .8486. This adjustment factor is necessitated by the nine revisions to the Index since its inception in 1957. Finally, that result is multiplied by 100 in order to convert the Index into percentage terms:
Reuters-CRB Futures Index =
76
Current Geometric Average 1967 Geometric Avg. (30.7766)
* .8486 * 100
REUTERS-CRB FUTURES INDEX
Reuters-CRB Futures Index 17 Futures Markets Cattle (Live), Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold (NY), Heating Oil #2, Hogs (Lean), Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver (NY), Soybeans, Sugar #11 (World), Wheat (Chi.)
Average Open Interest of Reuters-CRB Futures Index in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
2,607 2,144 1,934 1,944 1,679 2,863 3,487 1,280 422 748
3,146 2,164 1,826 2,128 1,557 3,027 3,525 1,063 514 877
2,680 2,147 1,753 2,090 1,626 3,153 3,271 1,032 458 835
2,691 2,370 2,355 2,245 1,509 3,041 3,117 1,036 384 849
2,339 2,016 1,881 2,192 1,641 3,785 3,155 969 400 939
2,698 2,144 1,890 1,817 1,895 3,388 2,737 1,006 412 905
3,838 2,053 1,562 1,957 1,832 3,300 2,104 1,058 489 858
5,146 2,070 1,345 1,741 1,719 3,443 1,640 1,048 399 917
4,562 2,062 1,596 1,656 1,839 4,231 1,551 993 583 1,078
4,942 1,942 1,853 1,843 2,162 4,851 1,632 559 646 1,029
4,535 2,003 1,861 1,789 2,639 4,579 1,544 354 684 1,013
2,800 1,640 1,866 1,752 2,787 4,087 1,438 404 710 757
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
Volume of Trading of Reuters-CRB Futures Index in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
6,956 6,151 7,490 6,645 7,659 7,606 14,975 2,428 1,251 2,289
7,473 5,545 6,041 4,942 4,623 7,766 6,760 1,823 1,231 2,154
10,085 5,763 6,428 5,245 3,953 7,556 3,941 1,310 896 1,826
10,274 7,955 10,784 8,600 3,890 7,808 7,582 2,062 1,472 1,634
11,298 7,877 9,526 8,156 2,933 4,986 7,402 930 785 1,514
14,652 7,573 5,543 7,776 5,634 8,404 8,924 1,965 1,191 2,106
10,560 6,875 7,476 6,248 3,394 4,378 2,023 880 1,217 1,632
8,967 10,094 5,816 7,685 4,578 12,053 3,973 2,021 915 1,350
7,445 7,376 6,311 4,537 5,101 6,660 1,333 625 1,100 1,712
6,575 5,030 6,527 4,588 4,013 8,063 2,122 1,263 1,654 2,123
10,186 5,865 5,990 3,468 8,814 9,497 3,254 843 1,430 2,502
5,515 5,309 3,181 3,592 4,401 3,932 1,205 728 1,141 2,314
109,986 81,413 81,113 71,482 58,993 88,709 63,494 16,878 14,283 23,156
Source: New York Board of Trade (NYBOT)
77
Currencies A currency rate involves the price of the base currency (e.g., the dollar) quoted in terms of another currency (e.g., the yen) or in terms of a basket of currencies (e.g., the dollar index). The world’s major currencies have traded in a floating-rate exchange rate regime ever since the BrettonWoods international payments system broke down in 1971 when President Nixon broke the dollar’s peg to gold. The key factor affecting a currency’s value is central bank monetary policy. An easy monetary policy (low interest rates) is bearish for a currency because the central bank is aggressively pumping new currency reserves into the marketplace and because foreign investors are not attracted to the low interest rate returns available in the country. By contrast, a tight monetary policy (high interest rates) is bullish for a currency because of the tight supply of new currency reserves and attractive interest rate returns for foreign investors. Currency values are also affected by economic growth and investment opportunities in the country. A country with a strong economy and lucrative investment opportunities will typically have a strong currency because global companies and investors want to buy into that country’s investment opportunities. Another key factor driving currency values is the nation’s current account balance. A current account surplus is bullish for a currency due to the net inflow of the currency, while a current account deficit is bearish for a currency due to the net outflow of the currency. Futures on major currencies and on cross-currency rates are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the FINEX exchange. Dollar – The sharp sell-off in the dollar that began in early 2002 continued into 2003. The dollar index temporarily rebounded upward during summer of 2003 as the US economic rebound started, but then the dollar showed weakness again during autumn and the dollar index in December 2003 posted a new 7-year low. There were two major bearish factors for the dollar during 2003: (1) the Fed’s expansionary monetary policy, and (2) the massive US current account deficit. With its 1% federal funds target, the Fed aggressively pumped dollar reserves into the banking system, keeping interest rates low but also creating an oversupply of dollars that depressed the dollar’s value against other currencies as well as against real commodities. At the same time, the US in 2003 ran a record US current account deficit near $550 billion, which is roughly equal to 5% of US GDP. That meant that the US had to import
Reuters-CRB Currencies Index Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average.
78
more than $1.5 billion of capital every calendar day in order to cover its trade and services deficit. Cyclical factors such as weak overseas demand for US exports were partly to blame for the US current account deficit. However, structural issues were the main cause of the current account deficit. Those issues were the heavy US demand for imported energy, the need for the US to import capital to cover the burgeoning US federal budget deficit, and the perennially weak US household savings rate. The OECD expects the massive US current account deficit to continue near 5.1% in 2004, meaning the dollar will remain under a cloud. Euro – The euro rallied fairly steadily against the dollar starting in Q2-2002 and on through 2003. The euro in December 2003 posted a record high against the dollar of 1.1978 euros/USD. The euro’s rally was mainly driven by the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) held to a tighter monetary policy than the US Fed by keeping its refinancing rate pegged at 2% through the second half of 2003, a full percentage point higher than the Fed’s 1.00% funds rate target. Higher European interest rates encouraged European investors to keep their investment capital at home in higher-yielding debt instruments. Still, Europe had its share of problems during 2003 with very weak economic growth, ongoing structural problems related to heavy business regulation, a sclerotic labor market, and fiscal problems where Germany and France couldn’t keep their budget deficits below the 3% Euro-zone ceiling in 2003. Yen – The dollar/yen traded mostly sideways in early 2003 but then dropped sharply in late 2003 to post a new 3year low of 107.50 yen/$. The Bank of Japan spent much of 2003 intervening in support of the dollar/yen because Japanese government policy was to prevent a significant appreciation in the yen so that the Japanese economy could benefit from increased exports. In spite of that effort, the dollar dropped against the yen due to the dollar’s weak fundamentals. British Pound – The British pound rallied sharply against the dollar beginning in early 2002 and lasted through 2003. The British pound in December 2003 posted a 5-year high of $1.72, which was only about 1 cent below the 11-year high of $1.7325 posted in October 1998. The British pound was supported by the relative economic strength seen in Britain and by the fact that the Bank of England was the first of the major G7 central banks to raise interest rates, pushing the base rate up 0.25 percentage points to 3.75% on November 6, 2003.
1977 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
128.54 139.31 141.69 134.61 125.06 130.97 127.65 118.42 110.20 125.37
129.57 140.54 141.01 130.30 126.10 128.48 124.37 116.58 109.38 126.36
130.89 147.85 141.12 129.56 125.65 126.37 124.01 114.25 110.40 126.61
130.57 152.52 139.61 128.71 124.96 125.74 123.43 113.01 111.33 126.42
132.23 150.20 138.11 130.83 124.33 125.32 119.42 112.24 114.54 132.07
134.18 150.85 138.37 131.75 122.86 124.63 122.54 110.92 117.39 133.04
137.60 150.58 139.53 130.14 121.89 124.08 121.59 111.29 121.30 130.30
137.51 145.41 140.52 126.84 120.65 126.89 119.04 114.02 119.68 128.77
139.78 143.89 139.51 128.02 126.18 128.89 117.11 115.20 119.54 130.93
141.94 146.33 138.74 129.07 130.98 130.66 115.99 114.04 119.02 135.96
140.29 145.21 139.92 129.58 128.86 128.24 114.89 112.69 120.77 136.23
137.85 143.83 137.47 126.93 130.69 127.71 117.55 112.01 121.97 140.44
135.08 146.38 139.63 129.70 125.68 127.33 120.63 113.72 116.29 131.04
Source: Reuters
CURRENCIES
U.S. Dollars per British Pound Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.4933 1.5742 1.5289 1.6590 1.6347 1.6495 1.6395 1.4767 1.4314 1.6184
1.4787 1.5727 1.5376 1.6258 1.6402 1.6269 1.6007 1.4522 1.4233 1.6077
1.4921 1.6004 1.5278 1.6095 1.6615 1.6213 1.5810 1.4438 1.4233 1.5832
1.4832 1.6087 1.5159 1.6285 1.6720 1.6085 1.5807 1.4350 1.4434 1.5751
1.5038 1.5886 1.5154 1.6325 1.6370 1.6147 1.5084 1.4268 1.4601 1.6230
1.5261 1.5960 1.5417 1.6457 1.6509 1.5957 1.5102 1.4025 1.4849 1.6606
1.5446 1.5955 1.5538 1.6717 1.6429 1.5754 1.5082 1.4149 1.5566 1.6242
1.5421 1.5668 1.5501 1.6044 1.6355 1.6051 1.4885 1.4376 1.5375 1.5942
1.5647 1.5595 1.5595 1.6020 1.6814 1.6237 1.4341 1.4646 1.5562 1.6141
1.6073 1.5782 1.5863 1.6331 1.6933 1.6570 1.4509 1.4520 1.5576 1.6778
1.5864 1.5612 1.6629 1.6887 1.6613 1.6206 1.4252 1.4358 1.5718 1.6899
1.5582 1.5411 1.6660 1.6606 1.6713 1.6131 1.4657 1.4422 1.5882 1.7536
1.5317 1.5786 1.5622 1.6385 1.6568 1.6176 1.5161 1.4403 1.5029 1.6352
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of British Pound Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
278,825 295,416 239,698 240,280 174,345 182,398 199,577 125,643 182,013 158,326
359,264 263,900 270,247 168,714 126,907 151,829 179,811 126,230 168,158 161,822
367,818 351,089 350,969 289,352 231,941 350,218 270,898 198,749 230,355 217,383
311,269 124,103 287,349 185,273 175,668 205,348 138,872 126,975 168,201 158,137
241,414 195,292 316,413 236,648 217,110 285,044 133,307 166,262 174,050 164,674
348,188 264,635 341,492 279,338 322,996 332,107 225,758 248,926 239,757 288,625
259,710 133,691 216,712 265,125 211,706 250,328 136,227 164,219 133,306 214,871
261,557 219,644 181,815 194,612 277,322 178,203 155,884 183,572 138,290 163,548
308,111 271,815 332,895 234,092 291,374 275,899 245,069 197,117 185,291 284,467
274,492 129,859 209,828 202,058 201,960 177,921 100,723 178,944 177,535 212,596
294,803 191,694 183,558 144,975 146,837 163,232 100,684 161,367 160,887 206,163
329,995 334,952 326,369 286,099 255,545 181,470 152,465 187,388 198,017 364,543
3,635,446 2,776,090 3,257,345 2,726,566 2,633,711 2,733,997 2,039,275 2,065,392 2,155,860 2,595,155
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of British Pound Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
39,223 47,740 40,315 40,479 33,616 51,519 37,192 28,776 26,450 36,892
43,878 44,935 50,106 38,370 31,282 59,705 45,329 30,555 31,023 33,066
35,554 36,805 52,349 43,742 38,712 66,913 51,645 36,532 30,474 27,042
44,725 23,161 54,954 37,701 41,256 64,937 41,488 34,713 39,952 25,274
46,577 26,571 52,573 40,956 47,303 58,744 51,965 39,836 46,178 36,171
41,801 28,402 61,461 48,890 55,511 60,414 43,009 48,310 47,355 50,118
37,633 22,662 55,080 60,592 39,156 65,206 30,766 33,273 38,138 41,702
34,988 34,932 50,862 50,829 49,645 54,373 36,320 40,935 31,320 46,979
40,751 38,900 53,868 41,801 63,756 50,949 42,781 50,083 31,513 40,183
42,648 34,485 51,934 35,752 53,458 65,038 30,978 38,579 29,599 55,884
49,684 43,634 62,128 56,825 54,004 49,468 34,627 40,461 40,901 66,660
65,834 49,804 47,652 44,667 53,578 34,191 32,913 35,424 36,671 70,197
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
79
CURRENCIES
Canadian Dollars per U.S. Dollar Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.3175 1.4120 1.3664 1.3484 1.4407 1.5189 1.4480 1.5021 1.5996 1.5395
1.3419 1.3995 1.3753 1.3555 1.4335 1.4971 1.4499 1.5227 1.5961 1.5119
1.3645 1.4065 1.3651 1.3727 1.4159 1.5174 1.4600 1.5579 1.5872 1.4752
1.3821 1.3749 1.3591 1.3947 1.4294 1.4868 1.4681 1.5581 1.5814 1.4567
1.3805 1.3607 1.3690 1.3793 1.4449 1.4614 1.4944 1.5403 1.5491 1.3819
1.3831 1.3772 1.3649 1.3844 1.4647 1.4691 1.4762 1.5238 1.5312 1.3520
1.3818 1.3609 1.3687 1.3769 1.4865 1.4877 1.4778 1.5294 1.5447 1.3801
1.3777 1.3550 1.3717 1.3894 1.5344 1.4921 1.4819 1.5384 1.5685 1.3948
1.3536 1.3495 1.3691 1.3865 1.5212 1.4772 1.4841 1.5665 1.5747 1.3638
1.3495 1.3449 1.3501 1.3863 1.5430 1.4767 1.5119 1.5708 1.5783 1.3226
1.3649 1.3525 1.3382 1.4127 1.5400 1.4671 1.5425 1.5934 1.5715 1.3128
1.3896 1.3685 1.3621 1.4272 1.5429 1.4713 1.5219 1.5793 1.5588 1.3121
1.3656 1.3718 1.3633 1.3845 1.4831 1.4852 1.4847 1.5486 1.5701 1.4003
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of Canadian Dollar Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
114,908 126,828 124,219 189,879 172,027 170,975 184,171 194,738 222,878 270,811
124,120 138,251 124,654 127,310 202,027 173,034 182,462 201,075 191,493 256,672
188,569 188,703 186,534 295,170 277,089 279,945 280,898 317,860 338,303 475,496
108,066 91,458 129,105 151,141 142,616 203,427 155,044 188,203 249,581 289,192
97,771 119,567 149,127 230,733 143,170 164,352 162,780 228,359 222,156 353,096
237,920 148,314 179,150 276,764 291,488 309,740 295,480 350,967 358,727 494,150
103,086 128,002 123,604 146,870 153,415 216,066 165,972 221,558 278,828 331,345
172,988 131,981 138,816 187,149 214,046 186,031 188,459 235,883 204,168 266,189
191,563 261,402 194,077 262,260 288,749 263,380 241,197 265,096 279,134 393,329
105,815 213,286 179,652 268,428 148,714 167,703 161,625 214,085 245,261 285,682
128,899 97,156 194,001 130,528 148,906 165,587 150,275 218,108 207,379 294,352
209,631 174,511 263,924 322,879 209,962 277,211 265,763 287,335 324,380 509,304
1,783,336 1,819,459 1,986,863 2,589,111 2,392,209 2,577,451 2,434,126 2,923,267 3,122,288 4,219,618
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Canadian Dollar Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
28,277 55,863 31,028 55,949 63,300 50,061 66,374 54,369 68,927 82,870
38,157 44,677 37,674 56,600 67,862 71,819 64,528 58,660 72,132 105,051
48,411 33,706 38,551 72,803 61,528 63,782 58,621 72,051 70,484 107,507
42,730 45,394 41,411 82,732 58,938 73,773 60,389 64,550 68,120 97,515
44,363 47,832 46,470 73,747 64,859 84,885 76,444 65,407 81,574 96,689
42,845 36,677 37,141 57,243 74,027 71,923 69,033 62,489 86,250 85,665
35,370 44,930 37,522 43,937 71,313 65,877 67,198 54,742 74,347 68,741
39,582 42,629 42,063 59,112 75,193 71,458 65,370 54,580 63,116 63,518
49,312 49,526 44,014 56,387 60,863 61,994 65,779 73,647 63,605 70,261
40,706 43,032 68,674 59,265 51,967 58,749 81,995 71,610 57,031 79,754
42,353 40,047 82,817 75,027 61,318 59,941 77,746 82,083 60,648 82,366
59,763 40,592 72,586 74,221 50,271 51,967 65,452 67,578 71,852 74,271
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
80
CURRENCIES
Euro1 per U.S. Dollar Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.1138 1.2380 1.2629 1.2088 1.0859 1.1584 1.0135 .9380 .8828 1.0636
1.1183 1.2536 1.2543 1.1592 1.0896 1.1202 .9842 .9208 .8706 1.0778
1.1412 1.3030 1.2544 1.1460 1.0854 1.0882 .9644 .9085 .8767 1.0795
1.1390 1.3292 1.2430 1.1396 1.0931 1.0700 .9450 .8931 .8866 1.0875
1.1636 1.3085 1.2278 1.1441 1.1099 1.0622 .9080 .8747 .9179 1.1580
1.1819 1.3196 1.2386 1.1309 1.1015 1.0385 .9496 .8536 .9567 1.1670
1.2167 1.3340 1.2554 1.0999 1.0991 1.0366 .9394 .8616 .9924 1.1374
1.2182 1.2939 1.2686 1.0694 1.1041 1.0603 .9042 .9023 .9781 1.1154
1.2314 1.2782 1.2587 1.0976 1.1566 1.0501 .8706 .9123 .9810 1.1260
1.2559 1.2987 1.2532 1.1190 1.2015 1.0705 .8533 .9062 .9818 1.1701
1.2357 1.2947 1.2695 1.1418 1.1680 1.0327 .8554 .8882 1.0020 1.1714
1.2129 1.2757 1.2416 1.1114 1.1746 1.0117 .9004 .8913 1.0210 1.2314
1.1857 1.2939 1.2523 1.1306 1.1224 1.0666 .9240 .8959 .9456 1.1321
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
1
Data through December 1998 are theoretical based on DEM * 1.95583.
Volume of Trading of Euro FX Futures in Chicago Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
---68,961 404,903 453,510 567,785 610,612
---96,573 334,967 373,233 582,292 749,195
---288,397 452,393 556,379 783,331 977,919
---157,601 289,398 368,320 650,169 785,534
May
Source: FOREX
In Contracts
June
July
3 0 183,729 276,410 318,313 382,162 407,698 585,288 611,387 917,661 902,748 1,103,826
0 259,735 234,921 425,070 821,580 866,150
Aug.
Sept.
0 0 0 258,072 422,761 302,526 303,320 486,283 287,741 494,717 533,909 533,609 525,538 675,268 525,230 824,466 1,112,408 1,069,590
Total
0 3 36 303,117 382,954 3,000,836 297,038 466,719 4,258,158 545,042 781,066 6,057,841 426,665 625,372 7,712,278 958,905 1,232,569 11,193,922
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Euro FX Futures in Chicago Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
---8,261 63,124 89,049 100,258 105,762
---30,546 68,413 91,130 108,955 106,905
---37,837 61,180 90,127 113,075 100,759
---37,881 59,110 78,762 112,413 85,604
1 46,446 67,644 89,390 136,660 108,619
1 50,615 63,361 94,160 135,364 111,651
1 46,777 57,723 84,637 112,462 96,338
1 55,858 69,561 104,437 101,992 98,671
1 49,352 77,617 112,797 99,365 95,553
0 57,380 73,314 108,445 85,462 102,568
Nov.
D e c.
7 7 58,846 65,346 79,577 92,730 108,999 104,323 103,156 108,602 113,601 131,560
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
81
CURRENCIES
Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
111.33 99.67 105.66 117.93 129.39 113.23 105.29 116.83 132.77 118.76
106.22 98.14 105.57 122.90 125.71 116.62 109.49 116.17 133.50 119.39
105.00 90.40 105.90 122.72 129.04 119.49 106.34 121.44 131.11 118.76
103.36 83.59 107.23 125.66 131.79 119.73 105.65 123.64 130.75 119.81
103.76 84.96 106.42 118.93 135.01 121.88 108.19 121.66 126.29 117.37
102.37 84.55 108.91 114.25 140.40 120.69 106.15 122.38 123.25 118.31
98.65 87.22 109.21 115.30 140.75 119.38 108.03 124.45 118.02 118.64
99.88 94.72 107.84 117.90 144.51 113.16 108.06 121.29 119.04 118.61
98.78 100.49 109.87 120.85 134.45 107.00 106.79 118.64 120.88 114.94
98.36 100.76 112.40 121.06 120.49 105.94 108.39 121.35 123.92 109.51
98.08 101.93 112.35 125.35 120.41 104.62 108.94 122.39 121.50 109.17
100.08 101.84 114.01 129.62 117.01 102.64 112.18 127.72 121.83 107.70
102.16 94.02 108.78 121.04 130.75 113.70 107.79 121.50 125.24 115.91
Average.
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of Japanese Yen Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
585,097 604,876 431,105 411,601 557,789 418,110 433,899 258,575 415,702 423,901
590,993 499,587 412,270 457,171 500,854 524,625 299,111 223,715 417,497 388,298
620,463 839,134 473,070 564,776 636,600 672,674 569,748 598,374 630,832 634,434
444,750 450,204 415,810 402,703 480,331 400,434 250,482 295,424 391,668 453,373
May
In Contracts
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
504,329 748,201 451,565 465,660 438,466 566,723 604,616 564,155 453,351 1,017,003 473,385 687,098 265,785 427,445 351,158 459,419 318,478 461,712 495,643 621,041
596,535 305,499 461,813 424,281 515,927 476,937 248,759 307,350 301,232 518,764
570,601 499,051 328,638 528,237 590,808 422,277 285,889 369,357 234,168 426,979
537,083 662,417 549,694 611,843 895,764 679,114 367,085 518,622 499,210 730,977
486,731 363,440 343,145 529,557 551,920 310,526 213,903 286,191 349,451 396,636
492,217 407,842 388,033 425,817 386,306 390,508 222,692 350,088 255,356 353,359
554,317 370,287 482,170 644,814 467,196 469,118 405,187 595,855 535,807 641,804
6,731,317 5,919,562 5,290,937 6,169,571 7,053,849 5,924,806 3,989,985 4,614,128 4,811,113 6,085,209
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Japanese Yen Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
101,792 86,569 80,645 73,391 95,338 78,767 93,785 89,680 129,917 116,574
94,470 86,852 78,915 82,542 101,448 81,859 125,318 90,652 123,735 107,929
73,286 77,649 71,643 78,466 97,183 96,271 95,034 109,536 95,535 101,809
57,281 63,379 76,655 81,117 97,389 87,829 75,631 96,244 72,358 81,168
65,835 67,644 73,832 85,984 106,139 118,819 80,840 89,377 88,905 107,090
70,759 56,285 85,398 73,322 132,732 120,681 68,359 82,838 88,324 102,507
73,734 48,680 77,941 62,488 113,084 118,329 60,966 93,430 77,168 107,450
72,798 63,463 73,535 82,369 145,241 136,826 79,195 107,588 71,683 125,884
63,419 73,830 86,723 96,468 108,808 115,884 64,845 102,710 79,980 149,978
63,091 67,336 76,620 90,080 88,991 82,657 64,648 75,096 80,104 152,368
80,053 73,335 72,130 130,606 89,108 87,869 68,719 97,368 74,584 138,799
92,834 70,268 67,301 121,001 79,262 87,595 100,713 137,756 99,643 147,255
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
82
CURRENCIES
Sw iss Francs per U.S. Dollar Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
1.4707 1.2865 1.1810 1.3925 1.4756 1.3856 1.5888 1.6296 1.6710 1.3748
1.4558 1.2694 1.1942 1.4543 1.4616 1.4273 1.6326 1.6681 1.6972 1.3609
1.4295 1.1691 1.1945 1.4622 1.4896 1.4656 1.6624 1.6903 1.6741 1.3617
1.4363 1.1362 1.2194 1.4614 1.5050 1.4972 1.6638 1.7115 1.6527 1.3770
1.4120 1.1678 1.2546 1.4298 1.4782 1.5078 1.7151 1.7525 1.5868 1.3091
1.3723 1.1564 1.2574 1.4419 1.4951 1.5359 1.6422 1.7842 1.5389 1.3196
1.3256 1.1542 1.2324 1.4810 1.5126 1.5472 1.6503 1.7564 1.4731 1.3597
1.3176 1.1958 1.2022 1.5123 1.4927 1.5092 1.7146 1.6791 1.4968 1.3813
1.2895 1.1868 1.2333 1.4702 1.4002 1.5251 1.7564 1.6338 1.4929 1.3741
1.2636 1.1444 1.2583 1.4507 1.3376 1.4891 1.7727 1.6337 1.4922 1.3234
1.2974 1.1440 1.2757 1.4057 1.3856 1.5541 1.7772 1.6501 1.4647 1.3314
1.3275 1.1624 1.3296 1.4393 1.3600 1.5827 1.6778 1.6569 1.4360 1.2627
1.3665 1.1811 1.2361 1.4501 1.4495 1.5022 1.6878 1.6872 1.5564 1.3446
Average.
Source: FOREX
Volume of Trading of Sw iss Franc Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
467,930 441,183 321,668 360,482 308,046 294,598 326,213 193,487 195,322 236,109
498,186 439,121 301,971 316,346 256,815 262,128 313,127 203,006 183,156 289,893
534,057 579,510 317,936 436,807 448,008 416,987 385,297 280,280 281,307 412,709
394,814 321,736 314,692 343,582 318,515 284,021 252,122 168,700 211,505 256,871
350,355 402,216 329,676 432,533 319,210 323,252 247,653 191,601 208,078 277,835
521,986 374,352 349,509 389,458 367,417 384,664 301,236 325,961 297,010 384,893
423,700 249,013 345,546 316,105 310,745 351,105 214,594 257,565 187,191 314,997
414,561 353,817 247,502 305,189 360,394 311,835 216,576 229,380 218,533 252,056
492,822 417,160 393,374 394,103 438,052 482,425 344,515 261,837 323,067 349,889
397,617 328,248 333,207 429,683 300,715 407,570 176,202 227,481 237,559 237,163
426,432 311,200 339,849 220,959 251,266 287,172 185,388 238,232 207,825 283,751
368,155 289,039 451,999 344,886 290,785 304,493 267,322 297,281 271,584 300,492
5,290,615 4,506,595 4,046,929 4,290,133 3,969,968 4,110,250 3,230,245 2,874,811 2,822,137 3,596,658
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Average Open Interest of Sw iss Franc Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
41,914 39,726 42,280 51,652 57,740 39,434 55,660 50,121 35,116 56,268
46,280 44,364 42,902 54,114 46,160 58,279 69,983 44,405 44,388 57,099
44,134 39,358 36,924 51,121 67,722 66,250 57,703 46,470 45,434 50,008
37,450 30,270 39,233 45,725 67,303 66,530 41,732 41,641 38,248 37,451
42,071 30,586 46,810 48,651 63,477 73,322 46,159 53,265 55,039 53,642
49,162 26,766 44,848 42,530 77,564 75,322 41,727 60,943 54,573 49,688
45,223 23,121 38,300 55,279 85,984 66,603 36,894 53,687 42,060 41,489
43,746 30,267 40,298 58,098 70,569 71,060 50,595 60,986 38,102 50,677
44,495 34,228 43,695 49,296 81,465 60,214 57,439 61,689 37,675 52,641
39,587 34,889 47,613 43,585 57,413 65,020 47,313 48,962 35,796 54,259
51,539 38,033 53,581 51,822 44,810 67,936 48,870 53,445 48,951 62,584
55,424 44,741 59,405 48,560 43,436 64,507 55,982 46,771 50,107 60,475
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I MM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
83
CURRENCIES United States Merchandise Trade Balance Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
In Millions of Dollars
May
June
-11,999 -13,573 -11,477 -13,405 -14,079 -15,746 -14,221 -14,487 -16,051 -16,010 -15,623 -12,911 -14,574 -15,897 -16,826 -18,167 -16,780 -14,896 -16,505 -16,982 -17,187 -18,331 -20,615 -20,860 -22,236 -23,409 -25,233 -25,741 -25,851 -27,753 -34,116 -34,708 -37,215 -36,934 -36,910 -39,161 -34,648 -38,815 -37,270 -34,690 -33,467 -36,412 -36,663 -39,773 -41,698 -44,859 -43,654 -47,507 -46,359 -46,654 2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Preliminary.
July
-14,009 -15,831 -15,862 -15,887 -14,839 -17,757 -15,610 -15,864 -20,404 -21,066 -30,381 -31,227 -37,827 -38,091 -35,760 -35,633 -40,830 -39,304 -45,076 -45,032
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
-14,232 -14,566 -14,926 -13,415 -13,243 -13,108 -16,759 -17,976 -15,320 -16,909 -16,524 -16,270 -22,291 -21,611 -20,990 -30,518 -30,573 -31,576 -36,839 -39,682 -40,205 -34,458 -35,660 -35,034 -42,070 -41,938 -40,647 -44,721 -46,574 -47,113
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors U.S. Markets U.S. Competitors
Nov.
Total
-166,192 -173,729 -191,270 -196,652 -246,853 -345,434 -452,423 -427,215 -482,872 -546,713
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Index of Real Trade-Weighted Dollar Exchange Rates for Total Agriculture2 Year
D e c.
-15,292 -13,272 -12,324 -12,600 -15,176 -17,695 -16,605 -16,962 -21,539 -21,059 -32,401 -32,255 -38,955 -39,360 -34,095 -31,534 -44,147 -47,447 -43,605
2000 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
81.6 66.1 84.8 70.8 95.3 82.7 92.1 78.6 95.0 88.5 103.0 99.2 109.7 106.8 103.6 90.3
81.0 65.6 85.6 73.3 94.5 81.7 94.1 81.8 96.7 91.6 104.8 102.7 111.1 109.9 104.3 89.5
81.3 66.1 86.6 74.3 93.8 81.8 94.9 84.0 97.2 94.2 107.0 104.9 110.1 109.3 103.8 89.7
81.4 67.2 86.9 74.9 93.4 81.1 94.6 85.2 98.2 96.7 107.4 106.9 109.7 109.2 102.3 87.6
82.1 68.0 84.8 73.6 95.3 81.1 95.8 86.2 100.3 101.6 107.8 109.1 107.6 105.6 99.0 80.9
82.4 67.7 84.7 74.2 96.9 82.7 95.8 87.7 99.2 97.1 109.0 112.3 106.3 101.0 99.0 80.2
81.8 66.7 86.3 76.6 96.7 82.7 95.5 87.6 99.4 98.0 108.9 110.8 104.7 98.0 100.4 82.7
81.3 66.3 87.6 78.8 98.7 83.4 94.5 86.5 100.4 102.2 107.0 105.7 105.9 100.2 101.2 84.9
82.1 67.4 87.5 77.5 96.6 79.8 94.5 87.4 102.1 107.0 107.5 105.8 107.0 100.2 99.7 83.4
83.0 68.0 88.1 76.9 91.6 76.1 93.5 86.0 104.0 110.3 106.6 106.1 107.3 100.3 97.3 79.5
82.7 67.5 90.5 77.1 92.5 78.0 93.8 88.5 104.2 110.0 107.9 106.6 106.1 97.9 96.7 78.8
83.4 68.8 94.1 80.3 91.0 77.1 93.9 89.4 103.2 103.4 108.6 105.2 104.9 94.7 95.7 76.8
1
Preliminary. 2 Real indexes adjust nominal exchange rates for differences in rates of inflation, to avoid the distortion caused by high-inflation countries. A higher value means the dollar has appreciated. Federal Reserve Board I ndex of trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar against 10 major currencies. Weights are based on relative importance in world financial markets. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
United States Balance on Current Account1 Year
In Millions of Dollars
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Annual
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032
-16,427 -20,975 -15,904 -23,367 -31,519 -51,124 -84,780 -104,004 -106,728 -138,707
-26,893 -30,122 -28,569 -26,380 -49,176 -70,268 -97,915 -99,964 -122,827 -139,394
-38,521 -33,230 -44,161 -40,586 -67,690 -89,564 -116,015 -103,636 -122,724 -135,041
-36,403 -21,496 -29,187 -38,039 -55,442 -81,900 -111,631 -86,140 -128,586
-118,244 -105,823 -117,821 -128,372 -203,827 -292,856 -410,341 -393,744 -480,865 -550,856
1
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
Merch an d ise Trad e an d C u rren t Acco u n t B alan ces
In Billions of Dollars
----------------------------- Merch an d ise Trad e B alan ce ----------------------------Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 20032 1
E stimate.
84
2
------------------------------ C u rren t Acco u n t B alan ce ------------------------------
Canada
Germany
Japan
Switzerland
U.K.
Canada
Germany
Japan
Switzerland
U.K.
14.8 25.8 31.1 18.6 15.3 25.9 39.9 39.8 33.9 36.6
50.9 65.1 70.6 71.3 77.8 70.9 58.6 89.5 104.0 109.3
144.1 132.1 83.7 101.6 122.5 123.2 116.6 70.3 88.7 112.2
1.6 .9 .9 -.3 -1.6 -.2 -2.5 -2.1 1.4 1.8
-17.0 -19.0 -21.4 -20.2 -36.2 -44.6 -45.4 -47.6 -50.2 -50.0
-13.0 -4.4 3.4 -8.2 -8.3 1.2 18.1 18.9 13.1 14.6
-24.3 -20.7 -7.9 -3.1 -6.7 -19.1 -20.4 2.1 26.8 30.2
130.3 111.2 65.8 94.3 121.0 107.0 116.8 91.1 124.1 159.9
17.5 21.4 21.9 25.5 26.0 28.4 31.0 24.6 26.3 28.1
-10.3 -14.3 -13.5 -2.9 -8.0 -31.0 -25.6 -25.1 -29.1 -32.4
P r o j e c t io n .
S ource: Org anizat ion for E conomic C ooperat ion and Development (OE C D)
CURRENCIES
85
Diamonds The diamond, which is the mineral form of carbon, is the hardest, strongest natural material known on earth. The word diamond is derived from adamas, the ancient Greek term meaning “invincible.” Diamonds form deep within the Earth and are typically billions of years old. Diamonds have also have been found in and near meteorites and their craters. Diamonds are considered precious gemstones but lower grade diamonds are used for industrial applications such as drilling, cutting, grinding and polishing. The South African De Beers cartel controls the largest portion of the world’s natural diamond production. Supply – World production of natural gem diamonds in 2001, the latest reporting year, rose sharply to 68.500
World Production of Natural Gem Diamonds Year
Angola
Australia
Botswana
Brazil
Central African Republic
1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
1,110 2,400 3,360 3,914 4,653 5,400
18,100 18,400 13,400 12,000 10,700 15,100
15,111 14,800 17,200 18,500 19,800 21,300
100 100 900 1,000 1,000 700
400 330 311 346 360 375
1
2
Preliminary.
3
Estimate.
million carats from 62.0 million in 2000. The world’s largest producers of natural gem diamonds in 2001 were Botswana (representing 29% of world production), Russia at 17%, and Australia at 16%. World production of industrial diamonds fell to 48.0 million carats in 2001 (the latest reporting year) from 55.7 million in 2000. The world’s largest producers of industrial diamonds are Australia (27%), Russia (24%), Congo (19%), South Africa (14%), and Botswana (11%). Trade – The US relied on net imports for 89% of its consumption of natural diamonds, which totaled 1.8 million carats in 2002.
In Thousands of Carats China
Congo3
Ghana
Namibia
Russia
Sierra Leone
South Africa
World Total
230 230 230 230 235 235
3,300 5,080 4,120 3,500 9,100 9,100
664 658 546 792 936 770
1,350 1,350 1,630 1,450 1,487 1,350
11,200 11,500 11,500 11,600 11,600 11,500
300 200 450 450 450 450
4,500 4,280 4,010 4,320 4,470 4,350
57,200 60,400 61,100 61,600 69,500 76,500
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Formerly Zaire.
World Production of Natural Industrial Diamonds4 Year
Angola
Australia
Botswana
Brazil
Central African Republic
124 364 373 435 517 600
22,100 22,500 16,381 14,700 13,100 18,500
5,000 5,000 5,730 6,160 6,600 7,100
-------------------
100 200 120 115 120 125
1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
2
Preliminary.
3
Estimate.
Formerly Zaire.
Year
Belarus
China
1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
16,000 16,500 16,500 16,800 17,000 17,000
5,000 5,000 3,000 ----------
1
2
Preliminary.
China
Congo3
Ghana
Russia
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Venezuela
World Total
900 900 920 920 950 955
18,677 21,000 16,000 14,200 9,100 9,100
166 165 136 198 234 193
11,200 11,600 11,500 11,600 11,600 11,500
100 50 150 150 150 150
5,540 6,420 6,010 6,470 6,700 6,530
85 17 36 80 38 40
64,500 68,700 57,800 55,500 49,500 55,200
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
World Production of Synthetic Diamonds Czech Republic
In Thousands of Carats
In Thousands of Carats
France
Greece
Ireland
Ja p a n
Russia
South Africa
Sweden
Ukraine
United States
World Total
3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
750 750 750 750 -------
60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000
32,000 32,000 32,000 33,000 33,000 34,000
80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
60,000 60,000 ------60,000 60,000
25,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
125,000 140,000 161,000 182,000 202,000 222,000
450,000 463,000 420,000 429,000 508,000 529,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Estimate.
Salient Statistics of Industrial Diamonds in the United States
In Millions of Carats
Bort, Grit & Pow der & Dust
Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
---------------------------------------- Natural and Synthetic ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- Stones (Natural) ---------------------------------Net Import Price Price ----- Production ----Value of Reliance Value of Apparent Imports Apparent Imports Secon- Imports Imports In ManuManu% of Con- $ Per Gov't Confor Con- Exports & factured Gov't Confactured $ Per dary Pro- for Con- Exports & Diamond Secondary sumption Reexports Products Sales sumption Carat duction sumption Reexports Sales sumption Carat sumption
125.0 140.0 208.0 248.0 308.0 310.0
Preliminary.
86
2
10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 8.4
Estimate.
254.0 221.0 208.0 291.0 281.0 195.0 3
126.0 104.0 98.0 98.0 88.0 81.0
Less than 1/2 unit.
-------------------
.7 3 3
----------
264.0 267.0 328.0 451.0 511.0 432.0
.43 .44 .44 .39 .31 .34
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
.5 .5 .4 3 3 3
2.8 4.7 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.2
.6 .8 .7 1.6 1.0 1.0
1.2 .8 .6 1.0 .5 .4
3.9 5.2 3.4 2.2 2.2 1.8
7.69 3.92 4.61 5.31 3.54 5.43
87 90 88 86 83 89
Eggs Eggs are a low-priced protein source that are consumed worldwide. Each commercial chicken lays between 265-280 eggs per year. In the United States, the grade and size of eggs are regulated under the federal Egg Products Inspection Act (1970). The grades of eggs are AA, A, and B, and must have sound, whole shells and must be clean. The difference among the grades of eggs is internal and mostly reflects the freshness of the egg. Table eggs vary in color and can be determined by the color of the chicken’s earlobe—white earlobes lay white eggs, reddish-brown earlobes lay brown eggs, etc. In the US, egg size is determined by the weight of a dozen eggs, not individual eggs, and range from Peewee to Jumbo. Store-bought eggs in the shell stay fresh for 3 to 5 weeks in a home refrigerator, according to the USDA. Eggs are primarily used as a source of food, although eggs are also widely used for medical purposes. Fertile eggs, as a source of purified proteins, are used to produce many vaccines. Flu vaccines are produced by growing single strains of the flu virus in eggs, which are then extracted to make the vaccine. Eggs are also used in biotechnology to create new drugs. The hen’s genetic make-up can be altered so the whites of the eggs are rich in tailored proteins that will form the basis of medicines to fight cancer and other diseases. The US biotech company Viragen and the Roslin Institute in Edinburgh have produced eggs with 100 mg or more of the easily-extracted proteins used in new drugs to treat various illnesses including ovarian and breast cancers. Prices – The average wholesale price of shell eggs
Wo rld P ro d u ctio n o f E g g s
1
In Mi lli ons of Eggs
Brazil
Chi na
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Mexi co
Russia
Spain
Ukrai ne
Uni ted Ki ngdom
Uni ted States
World Total3
12,700 13,460 16,065 15,932 12,596 13,636 14,768 15,654 16,435
235,960 281,010 301,860 253,680 282,350 307,760 365,300 377,420 389,000
15,355 16,370 16,911 16,500 16,084 16,900 17,550 17,500 17,450
13,678 13,960 13,838 13,922 14,025 14,164 14,341 14,350 14,350
11,502 11,599 12,017 11,923 12,298 12,433 12,660 12,400 12,400
43,252 43,047 42,167 42,786 42,588 42,117 41,975 41,800 42,000
21,471 25,896 25,760 26,045 28,170 29,898 32,428 33,310 33,640
40,300 37,400 33,720 31,500 31,900 33,000 33,000 33,500 34,200
8,454 9,670 9,983 8,952 9,450 9,084 9,216 8,900 9,000
11,766 10,145 9,404 8,763 8,242 8,269 8,740 8,000 7,700
10,645 10,620 10,644 10,668 10,752 10,812 10,293 10,000 9,800
72,072 74,136 74,592 76,536 77,676 79,896 82,944 84,420 85,020
593,734 643,045 670,211 631,846 666,748 695,281 762,077 778,995 795,711
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 20012
(large) recovered to 79.66 cents per dozen in 2003 from the 15-year low of 57.17 cents seen in 2002. Supply – US egg production in 2003 was on track to fall 0.4% to 86.345 billion eggs from the record high of 86.659 billion in 2002. World production of eggs in 2002, the last full reporting year, rose +2.1% to a record high of 795.711 billion eggs. China produced 49% of the world’s eggs in 2002, with production in 2003 rising +3.1% from 2002 to 389.000 billion eggs, and more than tripling since 1986. US egg production, which accounts for 10.7% of world production, has risen by about 23% over that same time frame. Russia is the world’s third largest producer of eggs with 4.3% of world production. Mexico, the world’s fourth largest producer of eggs, is an emerging force in the egg market with 4.2% of world production and has nearly doubled its production in the past 15 years. Demand – US consumption of eggs in 2003 fell slightly by 0.4% to 6.160 billion dozen eggs from the record high of 6.184 billion in 2002. The forecast is for consumption to rise to a new record high of 6.205 billion in 2004. US consumption of eggs has increased due to the focus on a lowcarbohydrate diet since eggs are high in protein. Trade – US imports of eggs fell sharply by 42% to 8.0 million dozen eggs in 2003, returning to more normal levels after the 14-year high spike of 13.8 million seen in 2002. US exports of eggs in 2003 fell –7.9% to 168.0 million dozen from 182.5 million in 2002. US exports represent only about 2% of overall US production, showing that most US-produced eggs are consumed domestically.
P reliminary.
2
F orecast.
3
Selected countries.
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
Salient Statistics of Eggs in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032
-- Hens & Pullets -Average Number On During Farm Year D e c. 1 3 ----- Thousands -----
298,753 303,754 312,137 321,718 329,320 332,410 338,628 339,827 339,989
293,854 297,958 304,230 312,035 322,354 327,985 335,012 339,024 337,262
Rate of Lay Per Layer During Year4 (Number)
253 256 255 255 257 257 256 257 259
--------- Eggs --------Price in Cents P er Total Dozen Produced ------- Millions -------
74,591 76,281 77,532 79,754 82,715 84,386 85,745 87,179 87,196
62.4 74.9 70.3 66.8 62.2 61.8 62.2 59.0
----- Consumption ----Value of Production5 Million Dollars
3,880 4,762 4,540 4,439 4,287 4,345 4,446 4,263
Total Egg ProUsed for Per Capita duction Imports6 Exports6 Hatching Total E g g s6 ----------------------------- Million Doz en ----------------------------(Number)
6,216 6,367 6,489 6,671 6,928 7,050 7,172 7,240 7,260
4.1 5.4 6.9 5.8 7.4 8.4 8.9 13.8 8.0
208.9 253.1 227.8 218.8 161.9 171.1 190.0 182.5 168.0
847.2 863.8 894.7 921.8 941.7 940.2 953.0 959.8 975.0
5,167 5,242 5,359 5,522 5,817 5,927 6,019 6,086 6,105
235.7 234.6 235.8 240.1 250.0 251.8 252.6 252.6 251.0
1
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 All layers of laying age. 4 Number of eggs produced during the year divided by the average number of all layers of laying age on hand during the year. 5 Value of sales plus value of eggs consumed in households of producers. 6 Shell-egg equivalent of eggs and egg products. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
87
EGGS
Cents Per Dozen ----- Fresh Firsts, New York (Jan. 1910 - Dec. 1926) Fresh Firsts, Chicago (Jan. 1927 - June 1943) US Standards, Chicago (July 1943 - Dec. 1947) Large, Chicago (Jan. 1948 - date)
Average Price Received by Farmers for All Eggs in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
In Cents Per Dozen
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
62.3 61.1 78.2 76.5 74.3 72.5 57.8 67.2 62.3 63.6
64.0 60.7 75.7 76.1 64.9 66.1 67.8 68.2 55.9 59.3
65.7 60.4 79.1 72.3 69.9 68.6 56.9 69.1 68.5 68.7
61.3 60.8 75.8 66.0 63.7 60.3 64.7 65.0 52.2 69.0
58.7 55.5 69.3 64.2 54.9 54.9 52.0 55.2 50.5 58.7
57.7 57.3 70.7 59.4 59.6 56.2 61.8 55.0 62.1 78.8
58.4 60.9 69.8 65.6 58.2 58.8 56.5 54.0 60.8 72.6
60.3 62.9 73.7 63.1 65.0 59.7 66.4 56.6 66.4 81.5
60.8 66.4 75.8 69.6 63.3 57.5 59.2 55.5 57.1 78.3
57.7 66.3 73.5 65.9 66.3 52.0 66.8 59.9 56.0 84.1
61.7 75.7 82.0 80.8 72.8 64.1 72.0 64.1 70.7 105.0
62.0 79.0 87.9 78.7 75.5 60.3 80.7 59.0 62.8 86.8
60.9 63.9 76.0 69.9 65.7 60.9 63.6 60.7 60.4 75.5
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Wholesale Price of Shell Eggs (Large) Delivered, Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
62.07 58.55 85.25 79.77 75.20 72.34 54.97 68.52 60.43 69.57
64.89 58.24 80.00 75.18 64.92 62.13 59.65 64.45 52.00 65.39
68.28 60.22 86.12 77.25 74.68 67.85 52.93 69.00 68.00 71.05
58.34 59.87 78.88 68.55 63.64 52.74 61.71 66.12 47.23 68.83
55.12 52.50 69.77 64.40 51.91 51.35 42.59 50.61 43.73 59.10
55.05 56.84 73.00 61.02 61.86 47.86 55.18 49.81 56.40 68.76
58.75 68.10 74.73 74.66 65.00 58.40 52.80 52.83 53.02 72.39
60.63 65.93 80.59 66.07 68.76 59.30 64.39 55.46 57.16 88.26
59.21 71.10 83.80 74.26 67.76 52.86 58.08 50.21 53.20 86.21
55.93 71.34 79.13 68.39 71.45 48.38 66.45 57.41 54.43 92.07
61.50 83.93 93.68 89.87 75.85 59.26 74.26 62.50 74.00 113.16
62.88 86.35 94.60 82.68 75.27 56.38 84.90 58.05 66.38 101.09
60.22 66.08 81.63 73.51 68.03 57.40 60.66 58.75 57.17 79.66
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
88
In Cents Per Dozen
Jan.
EGGS Total Egg Production in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
In Millions of Eggs
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
6,186 6,369 6,398 6,577 6,766 6,979 7,157 7,226 7,264 7,390
5,598 5,714 5,954 5,909 6,109 6,281 6,648 6,524 6,581 6,665
6,320 6,448 6,495 6,625 6,869 7,052 7,234 7,336 7,417 7,424
6,073 6,177 6,243 6,355 6,603 6,784 7,013 7,099 7,105 7,187
6,189 6,251 6,340 6,519 6,665 6,941 7,104 7,240 7,297 7,327
5,992 6,010 6,169 6,292 6,456 6,742 6,801 6,992 7,126 7,105
6,205 6,145 6,440 6,457 6,720 6,903 7,061 7,195 7,347 7,403
6,272 6,146 6,447 6,500 6,694 6,971 7,104 7,221 7,356 7,367
6,125 5,990 6,235 6,366 6,480 6,860 6,854 7,044 7,147 7,112
6,377 6,260 6,495 6,664 6,791 7,131 7,130 7,347 7,412 7,439
6,265 6,232 6,409 6,572 6,723 7,016 7,027 7,191 7,226 7,326
6,516 6,523 6,696 6,841 7,047 7,279 7,287 7,420 7,451 7,520
74,121 74,265 76,321 77,677 79,923 82,939 84,420 85,835 86,729 87,265
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Per Capita Disappearance of Eggs4 in the United States
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Total Consumption (Million Dozen)
46.1 45.0 44.0 44.5 59.0 60.5
44.0 43.0 43.1 42.1 59.3 60.5
43.8 43.9 42.7 43.4 59.7 61.1
46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 62.1 63.2
179.7 177.9 174.9 175.0 240.1 244.9
3,825 3,864 3,834 3,893 3,894 3,993
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast
In Number of Eggs
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
62.7 64.5 64.5 62.4 62.5 62.8
62.8 64.0 64.2 62.6 62.9 62.7
63.8 64.2 64.7 64.0 63.6 63.8
66.2 65.6 66.6 64.6 65.1 65.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 20043
Total Consumption (Million Dozen) Total
255.7 258.2 252.7 255.5 254.1 254.4
4,070 4,124 6,077 6,184 6,160 6,205
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Egg-Feed Ratio1 in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
7.9 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.1 11.7 8.9 10.9 10.2 9.0
8.0 9.3 8.7 9.9 8.3 10.6 11.3 11.4 8.4 8.6
8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 9.4 11.3 8.0 11.6 11.6 9.5
7.7 8.9 7.9 7.4 8.5 9.2 9.9 11.3 7.4 9.4
7.2 7.5 6.5 7.1 6.7 7.8 6.4 8.6 6.7 6.9
7.0 7.6 6.7 6.6 8.0 8.2 9.5 8.5 9.5 8.8
8.0 8.0 6.3 8.2 7.9 9.9 9.2 7.9 7.5 9.8
9.0 8.5 6.9 7.8 10.8 10.1 12.9 8.4 7.9 12.8
9.2 8.9 8.1 9.3 10.7 9.3 10.3 8.5 7.1 11.6
8.9 8.6 9.3 8.7 11.3 8.0 12.2 10.3 6.6 12.6
10.3 10.1 11.3 11.4 12.6 11.9 13.1 11.5 10.5 15.7
9.9 10.0 12.5 11.0 12.8 10.1 15.0 9.3 8.9 12.1
8.5 8.8 8.6 8.8 9.7 9.8 10.6 9.9 8.5 10.6
1
Pounds of laying feed equivalent in value to one dozen eggs. (ERS-USDA)
2
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Hens and Pullets of Laying Age (Layers) in the United States, on First of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
In Thousands
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
290,413 300,331 299,261 305,011 311,593 322,137 328,307 332,107 339,423 340,752
289,625 298,202 298,320 303,449 312,111 322,382 328,767 335,449 338,465 341,019
290,416 297,689 298,348 304,276 314,322 323,161 330,876 336,131 337,478 337,647
290,979 296,290 298,029 303,997 313,833 322,162 330,807 337,472 337,376 337,234
289,125 294,697 295,123 302,766 309,945 320,783 327,597 336,755 336,131 334,285
288,398 290,806 293,740 300,692 309,235 320,211 325,012 333,522 335,547 333,233
287,454 289,018 294,044 299,007 309,049 320,672 324,843 332,274 335,236 331,560
288,484 286,519 296,612 298,844 308,747 318,944 326,240 332,148 335,717 332,034
292,116 289,595 296,911 300,138 309,706 321,349 325,212 333,417 336,561 332,181
294,576 290,889 298,433 305,664 312,807 323,365 327,219 336,573 337,923 331,913
295,719 294,486 299,910 307,146 316,840 327,135 329,092 337,549 338,350 334,355
298,509 298,293 303,754 312,137 321,718 329,320 332,410 338,625 339,827 339,989
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
89
EGGS Eggs Laid Per Hundred Layers in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Number of Eggs
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
2,199 2,130 2,141 2,161 2,169 2,165 2,178 2,165 2,143 2,168
1,987 1,919 1,996 1,943 1,950 1,946 2,016 1,943 1,947 1,959
2,246 2,173 2,178 2,176 2,187 2,185 2,186 2,178 2,198 2,181
2,160 2,092 2,105 2,093 2,117 2,110 2,130 2,106 2,110 2,123
2,204 2,137 2,153 2,156 2,153 2,166 2,177 2,160 2,173 2,180
2,142 2,075 2,099 2,093 2,088 2,104 2,093 2,100 2,125 2,122
2,222 2,137 2,180 2,155 2,175 2,158 2,169 2,166 2,190 2,214
2,230 2,135 2,172 2,165 2,165 2,177 2,181 2,170 2,188 2,202
2,152 2,065 2,094 2,096 2,082 2,128 2,101 2,103 2,119 2,127
2,227 2,140 2,171 2,172 2,157 2,192 2,173 2,180 2,192 2,218
2,180 2,108 2,124 2,122 2,109 2,138 2,125 2,130 2,139 2,166
2,176 2,183 2,199 2,193 2,190 2,214 2,193 2,188 2,189 2,223
2,177 2,108 2,134 2,127 2,129 2,140 2,144 2,132 2,143 2,157
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Egg-Type Chicks Hatched by Commercial Hatcheries in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousands
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
33,236 32,374 31,580 33,752 37,168 35,242 34,181 36,728 35,647 33,499
31,086 32,743 34,608 35,655 34,597 36,367 34,659 37,836 34,465 29,988
33,489 36,019 36,890 37,347 40,604 41,172 38,877 41,015 36,977 36,726
35,657 35,078 35,740 38,842 39,057 42,285 36,653 42,789 38,088 37,531
35,322 37,540 38,028 39,020 39,206 40,726 41,185 42,655 38,751 38,206
31,985 34,996 33,017 36,796 39,323 41,439 37,268 40,822 35,136 36,344
29,613 29,572 31,920 33,772 35,576 34,275 33,240 38,651 35,573 35,593
31,295 31,442 31,782 33,061 33,398 35,518 34,328 34,987 35,681 33,179
31,587 33,586 31,930 37,118 37,959 39,287 36,325 37,140 35,734 35,777
32,066 33,383 32,319 35,262 34,667 39,044 36,080 35,825 32,149 34,999
26,075 29,129 30,947 28,122 31,217 32,802 32,438 32,355 31,146 30,129
30,166 30,639 32,879 35,796 35,501 33,564 35,178 31,870 31,973 33,856
381,577 396,501 401,640 424,543 438,273 451,721 430,412 452,673 421,320 415,827
Preliminary.
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Cold Storage Holdings of Froz en Eggs in the United States, on First of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
13.7 19.5 13.8 10.2 9.7 11.0 10.1 15.0 13.7 13.5
14.8 19.5 15.6 11.0 12.0 11.0 17.6 16.9 13.1 15.3
15.8 18.3 16.2 11.5 12.3 10.8 14.8 15.5 13.9 17.1
15.6 18.5 12.4 8.5 10.4 9.2 14.0 14.6 11.7 17.0
16.3 17.3 11.5 8.5 9.2 9.4 12.8 15.9 10.2 15.7
15.2 18.1 11.4 8.2 12.9 9.7 13.5 15.8 11.1 17.7
15.4 22.9 11.7 8.3 10.2 11.3 14.1 14.4 12.7 18.0
19.0 20.6 13.5 8.9 11.8 11.1 14.4 16.7 12.9 18.6
19.7 18.0 15.0 11.1 9.0 8.8 14.9 17.8 13.2 18.0
17.8 16.2 14.9 10.8 8.2 9.5 14.4 17.7 13.2 16.6
20.0 14.4 12.6 10.9 9.0 9.0 16.6 15.5 13.1 16.9
19.1 12.5 10.4 10.3 9.3 8.5 15.4 13.9 11.2 14.9
Preliminary. 2 Converted on basis 39.5 pounds frozen eggs equals 1 case. Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
90
In Millions of Pounds2
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of
Electric Power the utility transmission systems of Pennsylvania Electric Co. and the Potomac Electric Co. The contract is priced in dollars and cents per megawatt hours. Supply – US electricity production in 2002 was approximately 2.6 trillion kilowatt-hours, little changed from the 2001 level. The 2001-2002 levels were down from the 3.0-3.1 trillion kilowatt-hour range seen in the 1996-2000 period. The lower supply and demand for electricity in 2001 and 2002 was caused by the weaker US economy since there is a direct correlation between economic growth and electricity generation and usage. US electricity generation in 2001 required the use of 2.686 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 806 million short tons of coal, and 126 million barrels of fuel oil. In terms of kilowatt-hours, coal is the most widely used source of electricity production, accounting for about 56% of US electricity production. The other fuels in order of electricity production share are nuclear (23%), natural gas (9%), hydro (9%), and fuel oil (3%). Alternative sources of fuel for electricity generation that are gaining favor include biomass, wind, and fuel cells. Demand – Residential use of electricity accounts for the largest single category of electricity demand with usage of 1.141 trillion kilowatt hours in 1999, followed by industrial (1.018 trillion kilowatt hours), commercial (971 billion kilowatt hours), public authorities other than street lighting (91 billion kilowatt hours), and street and highway lighting (16 billion kilowatt hours).
The modern electric utility industry began in the 1800s. In 1807, Humphry Davy constructed a practical battery and demonstrated both incandescent and arc light. In 1831, Michael Faraday built the first electric generator proving that rotary mechanical power could be converted into electric power. In 1879, Thomas Edison perfected a practical incandescent light bulb. The electric utility industry evolved from gas and electric carbon-arc commercial and street lighting systems. In 1882, in New York City, Thomas Edison’s Pearl Street electricity generating station established the industry by displaying the four key elements of a modern electric utility system: reliable central generation, efficient distribution, a successful end use, and a competitive price. Electricity is measured in units called watts and watthours. Electricity must be used shortly after it is generated and cannot be stored to any significant degree. That means the power utilities must match the level of electricity generation to the level of demand in order to avoid wasteful over-production. The power industry has been deregulated to some degree in the past decade and now major utility companies sell power back and forth across major national grids in order to meet supply and demand needs. The quick changes in the supply-demand situation means that the price of electricity can be volatile. Electricity futures trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The futures contract is a financially settled contract, which is priced based on electricity prices in the PJM western hub at 111 delivery points, mainly on
World Electricity Production (Monthly Average) Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 1
In Millions of Kilowatt Hours
Australia
Canada
China
Germany
India
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Russia
South Africa
Ukraine
13,959 14,449 14,806 15,256 14,737 15,399 15,712 15,495 15,646 15,659
44,954 45,206 46,307 47,929 45,259 46,496 48,563 47,009 49,521
75,312 83,977 90,109 94,539 97,183 100,345 109,426 118,439 133,513 149,680
37,786 44,754 46,277 45,961 46,367 45,820 46,417 47,107 45,375
29,250 31,656 32,991 35,146 37,379 40,148 41,725 42,434 44,141 44,907
19,323 20,228 20,340 20,898 21,659 22,136 22,986 23,242 23,660 24,752
80,361 82,490 84,113 86,676 76,763 76,755 78,391 77,742 77,521 75,394
13,749 15,388 17,125 18,704 17,942 19,944 22,200 23,768 25,500 26,476
72,993 71,669 70,600 69,511 68,930 70,611 73,117 74,031 74,078 73,295
15,825 16,016 16,096 16,108 17,119 16,961 17,557 17,508 18,142 17,534
16,910 16,193 15,166 14,834 14,402 14,342 14,287 14,414 14,477 15,299
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
United Kingdom
United States
27,042 27,970 27,191 27,012 27,914 28,095 28,484 28,825
271,150 279,820 287,250 291,185 301,489 308,712 316,662 314,876 292,134
Source: United Nations
In stalled C ap acity, C ap ab ility & P eak L o ad o f th e U .S . E lectric U tility In d u stry
In Millions of Kilowatt Hours
----------------------------------- In stalled Gen eratin g C ap acity o n D ecemb er 31 -----------------------------------
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19 9 91 1
Total Electri c Uti li ty Industry
735.1 740.0 741.7 744.7 746.0 750.5 756.5 759.9 728.3 678.0
P reliminary.
Capaci ty Capa- Non-Co- Margi n ---------------------- Typ e o f Ow n ersh ip ---------------------Power bi li ty i nci dent Non-CoDi stri cts, at Wi nter Muni cInternal Wi nter i nci dent State ipal Nuclear Com- Investor Cooper- Subtotal Peak Peak Peak ati ve Gov't Uti li ti es Federal Projects Power busti on Owned Load Load (%) Load
----------- Typ e o f P rime Mo ver ----Gas, Turbi ne Hydro & Steam
87.2 88.7 89.7 90.2 90.3 91.1 91.0 92.5 91.2 89.8
531.1 534.1 534.5 536.9 537.9 541.6 546.6 549.7 522.1 476.3
108.0 108.4 107.9 107.8 107.9 107.9 109.0 107.6 104.8 102.3
8.7 8.8 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.2 9.6
S ource: E dison E lect ric I nst it ut e (E E I )
568.8 573.0 572.9 575.2 574.8 578.7 582.2 582.5 531.3 483.7
26.3 26.5 26.0 26.1 26.4 27.1 27.2 28.0 32.5 34.6
139.9 140.5 142.7 143.4 144.7 144.8 147.1 149.4 164.5 159.6
40.1 40.4 41.6 41.8 42.0 42.2 43.0 43.8 50.5 50.2
65.4 65.6 66.1 66.1 66.3 65.9 67.2 68.9 68.7 68.7
34.4 34.5 35.0 35.5 36.4 36.6 36.9 36.7 45.3 40.7
696.8 703.2 707.8 712.0 715.1 727.7 740.5 743.8 835.3 848.9
484.0 485.4 493.0 521.7 518.3 544.7 545.1 560.2 652.4 656.3
20.4 20.2 21.1 17.1 16.7 13.2 14.9 13.4 12.0 10.3
Total Electri c Annual Uti li ty Peak Load Industry Gen- Factor (%) erati on
2,808.2 2,825.0 2,797.2 2,882.5 2,910.7 2,994.5 3,073.1 3,119.1 3,212.2 3,173.7
60.4 60.9 61.1 61.0 61.2 59.8 61.0 61.3 62.0 61.2
91
ELECTRIC POWER Available Electricity and Energy Sales in the United States ------------------------------------- Net Generation ----------------------------------------------------------- Electric Utility Industry ------------------------
Year
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20001
Total2
Hydro
Natural Gas
C oal
Fuel Oil
2,572 2,704 2,784 2,808 1,825 2,797 2,883 2,911 2,995 3,073 3,119 3,212 3,174 3,015
249.7 222.9 265.1 279.9 275.5 239.6 265.1 243.7 293.7 324.5 333.5 304.4 293.9 248.0
272.6 252.8 266.6 264.1 264.2 263.9 258.9 291.1 307.3 262.3 283.1 309.2 296.4 291.0
1,464 1,541 1,554 1,560 1,551 1,576 1,639 1,635 1,653 1,737 1,789 1,807 1,768 1,697
118.5 148.9 158.3 117.0 111.5 88.9 99.5 91.0 60.8 67.0 77.1 110.2 86.9 72.0
Nu- Other clear Source3
455.3 527.0 529.4 576.9 612.6 618.8 610.3 640.4 673.4 674.7 629.4 673.7 725.0 705.0
12.3 12.0 11.3 10.7 10.1 10.2 9.6 8.9 6.4 7.2 7.5 7.2 3.7 2.0
Total
2,719 2,879 2,985 3,041 3,071 3,083 3,197 3,254 3,358 3,447 3,494 3,618 3,705 3,800
In Billions of Kilowatt Hours
------------------------------ Sales to Ultimate Customers -----------------------------Rail InterStreet & Other ways Residen- depart- Com- Indust- Highway Public & RailTotal Auth. roads tial mental mercial rial Lighting Million $ Total
155,734 162,449 169,903 176,929 186,359 188,480 198,220 202,706 207,717 212,455 215,059 218,346 219,873 228,313
2,441 2,561 2,636 2,705 2,762 2,763 2,861 2,935 3,013 3,101 3,146 3,264 3,312 3,413
846 886 899 916 955 936 995 1,008 1,043 1,083 1,076 1,130 1,145 1,193
4.5 4.2 4.3 4.2 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.1 2.5 2.6
658.4 697.8 715.9 738.9 765.7 761.3 794.6 820.3 862.7 887.4 928.6 4 979.4 4 1,002.0 4 1,037.9
844 882 913 932 947 973 977 1,008 1,013 1,034 1,038 1,051 1,058 1,071
1
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes internal combustion. 3 I ncludes electricity produced from geothermal, wood, waste, wind, solar, etc. NA = Not available. Source: Edison Electric I nstitute (EEI )
Electric Pow er Production by Electric Utilities in the United States Year
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
14.4 14.6 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.8 18.1 18.5 17.9 18.0 19.7 16.3 15.9 4 4
63.0 64.6 69.3 72.8 76.1 77.2 69.7 70.6 69.9 70.3 75.6 87.2 90.9 110.6
4.9 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.3 4 4 4
I ncluded in Other.
In Millions of Kilowatt Hours
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
232,747 237,289 248,455 243,970 245,782 261,697 253,077 268,713 273,410 265,435 275,230 265,991 236,467 215,684 219,933
219,826 212,880 210,821 217,761 224,617 225,011 228,127 245,388 233,907 235,340 239,825 237,324 199,802 187,929 193,289
226,742 226,034 221,400 224,665 234,801 231,544 233,675 247,989 244,659 256,575 258,678 241,397 211,942 200,833 197,193
208,042 211,070 209,004 210,837 211,374 214,817 217,381 226,423 230,512 232,457 238,969 227,031 197,499 194,038 186,681
220,124 222,908 234,373 220,355 222,396 227,703 236,381 251,570 243,143 265,077 255,266 253,890 215,508 208,436 206,434
235,689 249,175 248,427 236,842 249,633 263,859 256,083 268,644 266,588 291,029 281,233 268,128 233,622 227,940 217,934
257,050 266,375 271,976 266,148 282,292 278,149 292,827 289,329 304,628 317,521 318,745 279,421 253,400 248,962 242,259
258,687 268,527 268,115 255,203 279,132 274,645 304,709 290,458 294,557 312,538 307,835 286,682 258,901 241,449 241,738
227,150 237,017 233,885 234,760 236,603 237,663 245,574 250,672 266,649 279,198 261,347 245,137 214,236 215,408 208,026
219,910 224,694 223,430 221,289 223,629 227,972 234,409 240,674 253,267 251,380 243,212 228,389 204,307 201,705 198,244
219,300 213,748 221,377 221,263 225,855 224,745 234,117 241,077 243,726 239,089 235,129 226,765 192,518 194,205
259,038 237,434 233,760 244,126 246,412 242,906 258,170 258,138 267,477 266,532 258,205 255,229 211,742 212,868
2,784,304 2,808,151 2,825,023 2,797,219 2,882,525 2,910,712 2,994,529 3,077,442 3,122,523 3,212,171 3,173,674 3,015,383 2,629,944 2,549,457 2,534,077
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Use of Fuels for Electric Generation in the United States ----- Consumption of Fuell -----
Year
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
C oal (Thousand Short Tons)
Fuel Oil (Thousand Barels)2
Gas (Million Cubic Feet)
766,888 773,549 772,268 779,860 813,508 817,270 829,007 874,681 900,361 910,867 894,120 859,335 806,269 767,803
267,451 200,152 188,494 152,329 168,556 155,377 105,956 116,680 132,147 187,461 151,868 125,788 133,456 99,219
2,787,012 2,787,332 2,789,014 2,765,608 2,682,440 2,987,146 3,196,507 2,732,107 2,968,453 3,258,054 3,113,419 3,043,094 2,686,287 2,259,684
Total Fuel i n C oal Equivalent3 (Thousand Short Tons)
1,004,964 988,300 987,469 983,484 1,017,086 1,033,575 1,039,174 1,063,755 1,103,037 1,147,317 1,113,614
Average C o st o f Net C o st o f FossilGeneration Pounds of Fuel Per fuel at by Fuels4 C oal P er Elec. Util. Kiliowatthour (Million Kilowatthour (Cents) (Pounds) Cents/MBTU Kilowatthour)
1,978,577 1,940,712 1,926,801 1,928,683 1,997,605 2,017,646 2,021,064 2,066,666 2,148,756 2,226,860 2,150,989
.987 .997 .996 .990 .993 .999 1.003 1.007 1.005 .996 1.012
167.5 168.9 160.3 159.0 159.5 152.6 145.3 151.9 152.2 143.8 144.1 173.8 173.0 151.5
Preliminary. 2 42-gallon barrels. 3 Coal equivalents are calculated on the basis of Btu instead of generation data. Source: Edison Electric I nstitute (EEI )
92
1.79 1.80 1.75 1.72 1.72 1.59 1.48 1.55 1.53 1.49 1.48
4
Heat Rate BTU Per kilowatthour
C o st P e r Million BTU Consumed (Cents)
10,312 10,366 10,322 10,340 10,351 10,425 10,173 10,176 10,081 10,360 10,301
174.0 174.1 169.6 166.6 166.6 152.6 145.2 151.9 152.2 143.8 144.1
Excludes wood & waste fuels.
Fertilizer Fertilizer is a natural or synthetic chemical substance or mixture that enriches soil to promote plant growth. The three primary nutrients that fertilizers provide are nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus. In ancient times, and still today, many commonly used fertilizers contain one or more of the three primary ingredients: manure (containing nitrogen), bones (containing small amounts of nitrogen and large quantities of phosphorus), and wood ash (containing potassium). At least fourteen different nutrients have been found essential for crops. These include three organic nutrients (carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen, which are taken directly from air and water), three primary chemical nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), and three secondary chemical nutrients (magnesium, calcium, and sulfur). The others are micronutrients or trace elements include iron, manganese, copper, zinc, boron, and molybdenum. Prices – The price of ammonia, a key source of ingredients for fertilizers, in 2002 fell to a 4-year low of $137 per metric ton from $183 in 2001, and was well below the 10year average price of $161 per metric ton. The average price of phosphate rock in the US rose 3% to $27.69 per metric ton from $26.81 per metric ton in 2001 and was above the 10-year average price of $24.98 per metric ton. The average price of potash in the US fell to a 3-year low of $155.00 per metric ton from $165.00 in 2001, and was right on the 10-year average price. Supply – World production of nitrogen in 2002 rose +3.8% to a record high 109.000 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of nitrogen in 2002 were China with 27.6% of world production, the US (9.9%), India (9.0%),
World Production of Ammonia Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons of Contained Nitrogen
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Ja p a n
Mexico
Netherlands
Poland
Russia
United States
World Total
3,470 3,773 3,840 4,081 3,900 4,135 4,130 3,439 3,594
20,100 22,600 25,200 24,700 25,800 28,300 27,700 28,200 30,100
1,480 1,470 1,570 1,757 1,570 1,580 1,620 1,380 1,050
2,170 2,518 2,485 2,471 2,512 2,406 2,599 2,522 2,560
7,503 8,287 8,549 9,328 10,240 10,376 10,148 10,081 9,827
3,012 3,336 3,647 3,770 3,600 3,450 3,620 3,655 4,200
1,483 1,584 1,490 1,509 1,389 1,385 1,410 1,318 1,188
2,030 1,992 2,054 1,448 1,449 1,003 701 548 537
2,479 2,580 2,652 2,478 2,350 2,430 2,540 1,940 1,970
1,230 1,726 1,713 1,824 1,683 1,474 1,862 1,735 1,311
7,300 7,900 7,900 7,150 6,500 7,633 8,735 8,690 8,600
13,300 13,000 13,400 13,300 13,800 12,900 11,800 9,350 10,800
93,600 100,000 105,000 103,000 104,000 107,000 108,000 105,000 109,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
and Russia (7.9%). US nitrogen production in 2002 rose +16% to 10.800 million metric tons. World production of phosphate rock, basic slag and guano rose +7.1% to a 4-year high of 135.000 million metric tons in 2002 from 126.000 million metric tons in 2001. The world’s largest producers are the US with 26.7% of world production in 2002, China (17.0%), Morocco (17.0%), and Russia (7.9%). US production in 2002 rose +13.2% to 36.100 million metric tons from the record low of 31.900 million in 2001. World production of marketable potash rose by +0.4% to 26.500 million metric tons in 2002 from 26.400 million metric tons in 2001. The world’s largest producers of potash in 2002 were Canada with 30.9% of world production, Russia (16.6%), Belarus (14.3%), and Germany (13.0%). US production of potash in 2002 was unchanged from 2001 at 1.200 million metric tons and accounted for only 4.5% of world production. Demand – US consumption of nitrogen in 2002 rose +3.8% to 11.000 million metric tons. US consumption of phosphate rock in 2002 rose +5.9% to 37.400 million metric tons. US consumption of potash in 2002 was unchanged from 2001 at 5.300 million metric tons. Trade – US imports of nitrogen in 2002 rose +2.6% to 4.670 million metric tons and the US relied on imports for 29% of consumption. US imports of phosphate rock in 2002 rose +8.0% to 2.700 million metric tons from 2.500 million metric tons in 2001. US imports of potash rose +7.7% to 4.620 million metric tons in 2002, and imports accounted for 80% of US consumption.
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Nitrogen3 (Ammonia) in the United States
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
- Stocks, Dec. 31Net Import Nitrogen5 Reliance Fixed Ammonia Conas a % of --- Production3 (Fixed) --Nitrogen --- Compounds --Apparent NonImports4 Com- sumption ConConsumption Fertilizer fertilizer Total (Fixed) Exports Produced sumption Ammonia pounds (Apparent)
15 19 16 19 21 20 29 29
11,600 11,500 11,400 11,800 11,400 10,300 8,420 9,730
1,410 1,720 1,900 1,950 1,550 1,510 929 1,100
13,010 13,220 13,300 13,800 12,900 11,800 9,350 10,800
2,630 3,390 3,530 3,460 3,890 3,880 4,550 4,670
319 435 395 614 562 662 647 437
10,400 11,502 11,441 11,712 11,303 10,272 7,852 8,474
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Anhydrous ammonia, synthetic. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
4
10,700 11,100 11,300 11,300 11,500 12,500 10,600 11,000
959 881 1,530 1,050 996 1,120 916 771
For consumption.
5
1,580 1,390 2,220 1,270 1,240 1,400 1,340 1,100
15,300 16,400 15,800 17,100 16,300 14,900 13,500 15,200
-- Average Price ($ Per Tonne) -------- Urea FOB Gulf6 C o a st
217-222 188-190 102-103 82-85 107-110 158-161 104-108 128-132
------- Ammonium Ammonia FOB FOB Nitrate: Corn FOB Corn Gulf Belt Belt C o a st
220-235 197-210 125-135 110-125 115-125 175-180 130-135 150-160
Major downstream nitrogen compounds.
162-170 160-170 122-125 110-115 110-115 140-150 120-130 120-130 6
191 190 173 121 109 169 183 137
Granular.
93
FERTILIZER World Production of Phosphate Rock, Basic Slag & Guano Brazil
China
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Morocco
Russia
Senegal
Syria
Togo
Tunisia
United States
World Total
3,419 3,937 3,888 3,823 4,276 4,421 4,344 4,725 4,805 4,850
21,200 24,100 19,300 21,000 24,500 25,000 20,000 19,400 21,000 23,000
1,585 632 765 808 1,067 1,076 1,018 1,096 972 1,500
3,680 3,961 4,063 3,839 4,047 4,067 4,128 4,110 3,511 3,500
4,129 4,217 4,984 5,355 5,896 5,925 6,014 5,526 5,843 7,179
18,193 19,764 20,684 20,855 23,084 23,587 22,163 21,463 21,983 23,000
9,400 8,000 9,000 8,300 9,800 10,100 11,400 11,100 10,500 10,700
1,667 1,587 1,500 1,340 1,565 1,478 1,814 1,739 1,708 1,500
931 1,203 1,551 2,189 2,392 2,496 2,084 2,166 2,043 2,400
1,794 2,149 2,570 2,731 2,631 2,250 1,600 1,400 1,060 1,281
5,500 5,699 7,241 7,167 6,941 7,901 8,006 8,339 8,144 7,750
35,494 41,100 43,500 45,400 45,900 44,200 40,600 38,600 31,900 36,100
119,000 127,000 131,000 135,000 143,000 144,000 134,000 132,000 126,000 135,000
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Salient Statistics of Phosphate Rock in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2 0 0 11 20022 1
Mine Production
Marketable Production
107,000 157,000 165,000 179,000 166,000 170,000 161,000 163,000 130,000 154,000
35,500 41,100 43,500 45,400 45,900 44,200 40,600 38,600 31,900 36,100
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Imports Value F or Million Dollars Consumption
759 869 947 1,060 1,080 1,130 1,240 932 856 993
534 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,830 1,760 2,170 1,930 2,500 2,700
Exports
Apparent Consumption
Stocks, D e c. 3 1 (Producer)
3,200 2,800 2,760 1,570 335 378 272 299 9 39
38,300 42,900 42,700 43,700 43,600 45,000 43,500 39,000 35,300 37,400
9,220 5,980 5,710 6,390 7,910 7,920 6,920 8,170 7,510 8,860
28.51 25.60 28.35 35.82 34.80 42.70 41.96 40.38 38.58 W
21.89 22.08 21.75 23.40 24.50 25.87 31.49 24.29 26.81 27.69
Canada
China
France
Germany
Israel
Jordan
Russia
Spain
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
1,947 3,021 3,211 2,716 3,247 3,451 4,553 3,786 3,700 3,800
168 234 215 243 280 326 348 352 352 352
3,836 8,037 9,066 8,120 8,989 9,201 8,475 9,202 8,224 8,200
25 74 80 110 115 120 260 380 385 450
890 870 799 751 725 453 345 320 244 130
2,861 3,286 3,278 3,332 3,423 3,582 3,543 3,407 3,550 3,450
1,309 1,259 1,330 1,500 1,488 1,668 1,702 1,747 1,774 1,930
822 930 1,075 1,080 850 916 1,080 1,160 1,177 1,200
2,628 2,498 2,800 2,620 3,400 3,500 4,200 3,700 4,300 4,400
661 684 760 717 639 597 656 653 471 407
555 580 582 618 565 608 495 600 532 540
1,510 1,400 1,480 1,390 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,200
20,400 23,100 24,800 23,300 25,200 26,000 27,200 27,000 26,400 26,500
2
Estimate.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Net Import Reliance as a % of Consumption
Production
72 76 75 77 80 80 80 70 80 80
1,510 1,400 1,480 1,390 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 Preliminary.
94
21.26 21.79 21.29 22.90 24.40 25.46 30.56 24.20 26.81 27.69
In Thousands of Metric Tons (K2O Equivalent)
Salient Statistics of Potash in the United States
1
21.38 21.14 21.75 23.40 24.50 25.87 31.49 24.29 26.81 27.69
Brazil
Preliminary.
Year
Avg. Price of Florida & N. Carolina Price - $ Avg. Per Metric Ton - $/Tonne - FOB Mine (-60% to +74% ) Domestic Export Average (FOB Mine)
Belarus
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
World Production of Marketable Potash Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
2
Estimate.
3
In Thousands of Metric Tons (K2O Equivalent)
Sales by Producers
Value Million Dollars
Imports F or Consumption
Exports
Apparent Consumption
1,480 1,470 1,400 1,430 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,200
286.0 284.0 284.0 299.0 320.0 330.0 280.0 290.0 260.0 280.0
4,360 4,800 4,820 4,940 5,490 4,780 4,470 4,600 4,540 4,620
415 464 409 481 466 477 459 367 366 371
5,430 5,810 5,820 5,890 6,500 5,600 5,100 5,600 5,300 5,300
Unit of K2O, standard 60% muriate F.O.B. mine.
----- $ Per Ton ----Producer Avg. Value Avg. Value of Avg. Price3 Stocks Per Ton of Dec. 31 Product ($) K2O Equiv. $ Per Tonne
305 234 312 265 200 300 300
94.36 95.93 98.58 101.08 110.00 115.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 110.00
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
192.72 193.50 202.43 208.57 230.00 250.00 230.00 230.00 230.00 230.00
130.74 125.34 137.99 134.07 138.00 145.00 150.00 157.50 165.00 155.00
Fish products. Supply – Of the US supply of fishery products of 18.119 billion pounds in 2001, the latest full reporting year, 52.4% came from the domestic catch, which rose to 9.492 billion pounds in 2001 from 9.068 billion pounds in 2000. Of the domestic catch, 6.162 billion pounds of the catch was finfish, 1.152 billion pounds shellfish, and 2.178 billion pounds for industrial use. The principal species of US fishery landings in 2001 were Pollock (with 3.188 billion pounds landed), Menhaden (1.741 billion pounds), Pacific Salmon (723 million pounds), Flounder (352 million pounds), Sea Herring (300 million pounds), and crabs (272 million pounds). World fishmeal production in 2002/3 fell –0.8% to 6.360 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of fishmeal in 2001/2 were Peru with 24% of world production, Chile (12.1%), European Union (8.6%), and the US (5.3%). World production of fish oil in 2002/3 rose +7.4% to 1.024 million metric tons. The world’s largest producers of fish oil are Peru (with 17.1% of world production), Chile (16.0%), and the US (11.7%). Trade – US imports of fishery products in 2001 rose to a 14-year high of 8.627 billion pounds.
Fish is the primary source of protein for a large proportion of the world’s population. The worldwide yearly harvest of all sea fish (including aquaculture) is between 85 and 130 million metric tons. There are approximately 20,000 species of fish, of which 9,000 are regularly caught, with only 22 species harvested in large amounts. Ground-fish, which are fish that live near or on the ocean floor, account for nearly 10% of the world’s fishery harvest, and include cod, haddock, pollock, flounder, halibut and sole. Large pelagic fish such as tuna, swordfish, marlin, and mahi-mahi, account for nearly 5% of world harvest. The fish eaten most often in the United States is canned tuna. Rising global demand for fish has increased the pressure to harvest more fish, to the point where all 17 of the world’s major fishing areas have either reached or exceeded their limits. Atlantic stocks of cod, haddock and blue-fin tuna are all seriously depleted, while in the Pacific, anchovies, salmon and halibut are all being over-fished. Aquaculture, or fish farming, reduces pressure on wild stocks and now accounts for nearly 20% of world harvest. Over 30% of the fish harvested is processed directly into fishmeal and fish oil. Fishmeal is used primarily in animal feed. Fish oil is used in both animal feed and human food
In Millions of Pounds2
Fishery Products -- Supply in the United States
---------------------- Domestic Catch ----------------------
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1
Grand - For Human Food Total Finfish Shellfish3
16,484 16,474 17,133 16,898 17,378 17,339 18,119
10,692 10,699 10,580 10,837 10,831 11,006 11,330
2,891 2,927 3,160 3,338 3,630 3,734 3,977
F or Industrial Use4
Total
2,900 2,848 3,393 2,723 2,916 2,599 2,812
9,788 9,565 9,843 9,194 9,339 9,068 9,492
------------------------------ Imports ------------------------------
F or % of Grand - For Human Food - Industrial Use4 Total Finfish Shellfish3
59.4 58.1 57.5 54.4 53.7 52.3 52.4
6,414 6,205 5,969 5,935 5,490 5,637 6,162
1,252 1,271 1,277 1,238 1,341 1,275 1,152
2,121 2,089 2,598 2,021 2,507 2,157 2,178
Total
F or Industrial Use4
% of Grand - For Human Food Total Finfish Shellfish3
6,696 6,909 7,290 7,704 8,039 8,271 8,627
40.6 41.9 42.5 45.6 46.3 47.7 47.6
4,278 4,494 4,612 4,901 5,341 5,369 5,168
1,639 1,656 1,883 2,100 2,289 2,459 2,828
779 759 795 702 409 442 634
1
Preliminary. 2 Live weight, except percent. 3 For univalue and bivalues mollusks (conchs, clams, oysters, scallops, etc.) the weight of meats, excluding the shell is reported. 4 Fish meal and sea herring. Source: Fisheries Statistics Division, U.S. Department of Commerce
Fisheries -- Landings of Principal Species in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
----------------------------------------------------------- Fish ------------------------------------------------------------ ---------------------------------- Shelfish ---------------------------------Year
C od, Atlantic Flounder
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 1
30 31 29 25 21 25 33
Preliminary.
Halibut
Herring, S ea
Manhaden
Pollock
Salmon, Pacific
Tuna
Whiting
Clams (Meats)
45 49 70 73 80 75 78
265 318 348 272 267 235 300
1,847 1,755 2,028 1,706 1,989 1,760 1,741
2,853 2,630 2,522 2,729 2,336 2,616 3,188
1,137 877 568 644 815 629 723
14 85 83 85 58 51 52
34 35 34 33 31 27 28
134 123 114 108 112 118 123
423 460 566 391 331 413 352
Lobsters Oysters Scallops Crabs (American) ------ (Meats) ------ Shrimp
364 392 430 553 458 299 272
66 71 84 80 87 83 74
40 38 40 34 27 41 33
20 18 15 13 27 33 47
307 317 290 278 304 332 324
Source: National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Fisheries: Quantity & Value of Domestic Catch & Consumption & World Fish Oil Production
Year
F or F or ----------------------------------- Disposition ----------------------------------Industrial Human Fresh & For Meal, Products F ood Frozen Canned Cured Oil, Etc. Total ------------------------------------------------ Millions of Pounds ------------------------------------------------
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 1
Preliminary.
7,099 7,054 6,873 6,870 6,416 6,657 7,085 2
769 678 648 516 712 530 536
90 93 108 129 133 119 123
1,830 1,740 2,213 1,679 2,078 1,763 1,748
Crop years on a marketing year basis.
9,788 9,565 9,842 9,194 9,339 9,069 9,492 3
7,667 7,474 7,244 7,173 6,832 6,912 7,314
At the Dock Prices.
2,121 2,091 2,598 2,021 2,507 2,157 2,178
Ex-vessel Value3
F i sh Per Capita Average Price Cunsumption
- Million $ - - Cents/Lb. -
3,770 3,487 3,448 3,128 3,467 3,550 3,228
38.5 36.5 35.0 34.0 37.1 39.1 34.0
World2 Fish Oil Production
- Pounds - - 1,000 Tons -
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1,302 1,337 1,214 886 1,413 1,422 1,132
Source: Fisheries Statistics Division, U.S. Department of Commerce
95
FISH Imports of Seafood Products into the United States
In Thousands of Pounds
Year
------------------- Fresh ------------------- ----------------------------- Froz en ----------------------------Atlantic Pacific Atlantic Pacific Salmon Salmon Shrimp Trout Salmon Salmon Shrimp
Oysters2
Mussels3
Clams4
Canned Prepared Salmon Shrimp5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
116,606 150,135 190,131 217,948 257,218 316,837 356,164 349,474
14,222 14,531 18,049 18,325 20,810 18,438 19,084 22,257
21,241 26,903 34,099 34,969 43,141 39,973 45,695 43,236
6,596 5,703 6,541 7,537 8,074 8,007 7,457 8,752
4,182 3,675 3,430 5,627 8,893 11,298 16,378 25,177
43,962 38,999 38,486 26,467 19,908 17,472 23,210 22,462
-------------------------
4,552 5,403 5,670 5,259 7,083 7,382 9,887 9,023
10,752 14,956 19,092 24,222 32,089 41,176 56,883 64,999
8,514 25,662 17,134 16,596 12,866 10,515 18,317 26,658
507,823 572,111 599,466 617,089 621,231 714,706 730,002 878,124
1
Preliminary. 2 Oysters fresh or prepared. 3 Mussels fresh or prepared. 4 Clams, fresh or prepared. NA = Not available. Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Exports of Seafood Products into the United States Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
42,999 25,529 34,645 40,683 38,750 20,651 29,672 38,902
-------------------------
1,867 1,709 1,453 1,697 1,816 1,077 1,163 2,592
322 322 243 182 299 84 84 99
223,346 152,516 105,869 157,278 161,515 167,933 132,646 150,766
Oysters2
Mussels3
Clams4
2,097 2,890 2,496 2,727 3,229 3,915 3,896 5,827
1,603 1,157 1,347 1,861 1,513 1,485 1,178 1,337
5,126 4,916 5,375 5,240 3,413 3,939 3,861 4,003
11,180 11,967 11,323 13,607 15,162 13,905 13,890 16,466
1
Preliminary. 2 Oysters fresh or prepared. 3 Mussels fresh or prepared. 4 Clams, fresh or prepared. NA = Not available. Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
World Production of Fish Meal
1
17,665 14,826 13,882 13,153 14,229 13,640 13,148 14,307
Shrimp, canned, breaded or prepared.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Denmark
EU-12
FSU-12
Iceland
Ja p a n
Norway
Peru
South Africa
Thailand
United States
World Total
1,387.6 1,209.9 708.5 823.4 890.0 731.0 766.0 770.0
76.4 86.1 92.8 86.1 81.5 88.0 90.0 92.0
322.9 334.6 317.2 319.1 314.2 311.9 308.2 310.0
532.5 555.5 544.7 542.7 531.1 534.4 535.8 544.5
209.8 206.3 206.7 147.1 148.8 137.4 147.2 147.2
271.0 272.5 221.6 240.6 281.2 284.0 311.0 305.0
195.0 363.5 383.4 388.5 390.0 350.0 323.0 338.0
233.8 259.7 296.7 352.6 315.0 238.8 222.9 232.0
1,702.7 2,150.5 697.2 1,597.4 2,449.4 2,144.2 1,688.1 1,550.0
49.6 52.6 89.3 76.2 113.7 97.8 115.8 116.0
380.9 384.4 403.8 398.0 392.4 385.0 390.0 400.0
331.1 366.1 339.9 389.9 346.8 337.1 347.6 338.0
6,332.9 6,992.7 5,218.4 6,324.6 7,334.3 6,771.8 6,412.5 6,360.0
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
World Production of Fish Oil
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Canada
Chile
China
Denmark
Iceland
Ja p a n
Norway
Peru
South Africa
FSU-12
United States
World Total
Fish Oil CIF4
10.6 4.8 4.5 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.5
280.2 192.6 91.4 176.8 166.0 142.9 140.2 164.0
12.0 9.0 7.2 28.8 26.7 26.3 28.0 30.0
120.0 138.0 126.7 135.2 139.7 121.3 112.7 124.0
120.5 143.2 95.1 92.1 98.0 99.0 85.0 89.0
45.8 47.6 70.7 72.8 69.7 65.0 65.0 67.0
93.7 86.4 89.0 99.2 98.3 66.4 61.2 78.0
410.0 413.3 86.3 376.5 699.4 400.8 179.5 175.0
3.7 4.1 7.8 6.8 8.9 7.9 10.0 9.0
43.0 41.0 14.3 14.5 12.0 11.1 11.0 11.0
110.4 119.8 101.3 141.6 81.3 123.3 106.0 120.0
1,363.4 1,289.0 825.5 1,277.3 1,533.3 1,217.3 953.4 1,023.7
461 502 722 408 268 375 593
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22 2002-33 1
94,842 81,407 77,201 113,556 81,098 109,109 95,955 94,338
Spain
Preliminary.
Year
5
Canned Prepared Salmon Shrimp5
Chile
Year
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22 2002-33
Shrimp, canned, breaded or prepared.
In Thousands of Pounds
------------------- Fresh ------------------- ----------------------------- Froz en ----------------------------Atlantic Pacific Atlantic Pacific Salmon Salmon Shrimp Trout Salmon Salmon Shrimp
7,280 7,504 7,978 10,717 15,942 18,417 8,456 11,337
5
74,648 76,213 95,942 114,191 139,526 167,877 216,439 234,084
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
4
Any origin, N.W. Europe.
NA = Not available.
Source: The Oil World
Monthly Production of Catfish--Round Weight Processed, in the US In Thousands of Pounds (Live Weight) Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
38,475 42,409 46,723 48,723 50,552 46,999 52,551 55,523
38,004 45,067 47,606 48,891 50,942 50,257 52,856 55,461
46,376 48,431 53,761 56,310 56,856 57,766 58,340 65,007
38,557 45,721 49,393 46,830 48,781 52,478 50,694 57,105
39,583 43,409 45,218 47,703 48,424 51,736 52,902 58,424
36,810 42,282 46,244 48,445 48,011 47,883 49,450 52,441
39,025 43,376 46,383 50,074 49,023 47,829 52,363 54,089
40,463 44,154 47,739 50,372 53,204 51,690 54,383 54,153
38,807 43,472 46,579 50,414 49,422 49,699 53,366 51,885
42,070 46,275 47,904 52,407 51,412 52,264 56,576 57,652
37,210 40,137 43,224 48,118 45,535 44,670 50,072 51,246
36,874 40,216 43,581 48,341 41,441 43,837 48,048 48,518
472,254 524,949 564,355 596,628 593,603 597,108 631,601 661,504
Preliminary.
96
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
FISH Average Price Paid to Producers for Farm-Raised Catfish in the US
In Cents Per Pound (Live Weight)
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
77.0 73.0 69.0 70.3 74.4 69.3 54.9 52.9
78.0 73.0 73.0 71.4 78.8 69.6 55.5 54.4
78.0 73.0 78.0 73.2 78.9 69.7 56.5 58.5
78.0 73.0 79.0 75.6 78.9 69.4 56.1 63.0
79.0 73.0 79.0 77.7 78.5 68.7 57.4 61.8
79.0 72.0 78.0 77.5 78.6 66.9 58.8 58.6
79.0 71.0 76.0 76.8 76.0 65.6 59.0 56.4
78.0 70.0 74.0 74.3 74.1 62.4 58.2 55.2
77.0 69.0 73.0 72.8 72.7 61.0 57.6 56.0
76.0 69.0 71.0 71.6 71.0 59.6 56.8 56.7
75.0 69.0 70.0 71.3 69.6 56.6 56.0 61.0
73.0 69.0 70.0 71.6 68.2 55.4 54.4 62.9
77.3 71.2 74.2 73.7 75.0 64.5 56.8 58.1
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Sales of Fresh Catfish in the United States Year
Whole 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Fillets2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Other3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Thousands of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,700 3,650 3,496 3,516 3,713 3,833
4,049 3,957 3,396 3,242 3,656 3,785
4,308 4,467 4,031 4,260 3,826 4,339
3,856 3,459 3,655 3,644 3,373 3,643
3,421 3,492 3,483 3,271 3,644 3,692
3,340 3,380 3,581 3,166 3,313 3,266
3,342 3,471 3,491 3,233 3,477 3,553
3,270 3,271 3,545 3,204 3,733 3,510
3,332 3,583 3,246 3,174 3,418 3,233
3,431 3,561 3,504 3,294 3,822 3,231
3,152 3,209 2,971 2,865 3,031 2,798
3,254 3,313 2,993 2,803 2,986 2,693
42,455 42,813 41,392 39,672 41,992 41,576
4,292 4,581 4,686 4,884 5,684 5,362
4,784 5,030 4,853 6,112 6,132 5,158
5,130 5,768 5,957 6,751 6,010 6,715
4,634 4,897 5,206 5,709 5,236 5,700
4,371 4,918 5,099 5,587 5,682 6,364
4,220 4,707 4,792 5,122 5,093 5,737
4,542 4,846 4,650 5,191 5,327 5,984
4,622 5,002 4,899 5,313 5,442 6,013
4,626 4,550 4,650 5,264 5,317 5,308
4,588 4,811 5,283 5,273 5,420 6,082
4,092 4,171 4,355 4,463 4,447 5,187
3,975 4,142 4,099 4,489 4,119 4,710
53,876 57,423 58,529 64,158 63,909 68,320
1,499 1,243 1,429 1,443 1,526 1,668
1,712 1,614 1,437 1,292 1,446 1,532
1,721 1,724 1,685 2,156 1,375 1,599
1,509 1,153 1,547 1,309 1,356 1,458
1,395 1,227 1,364 1,282 1,732 1,472
1,453 1,126 1,299 1,298 1,527 1,319
1,246 1,305 1,340 1,375 1,576 1,425
1,369 1,495 1,438 1,436 1,569 1,366
1,314 1,354 1,332 1,449 1,441 1,473
1,345 1,676 1,473 1,430 1,596 1,361
1,117 1,299 1,271 1,223 1,165 1,138
1,081 1,227 1,198 1,252 1,205 1,134
16,761 16,443 16,813 16,945 17,514 16,945
1
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes regular, shank and strip fillets; excludes breaded products. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Prices of Fresh Catfish in the United States Year
Whole 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Fillets2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 Other3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
3
I ncludes steaks, nuggets and all other products not reported.
In Dollars per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1.52 1.54 1.63 1.59 1.36 1.28
1.57 1.55 1.67 1.68 1.35 1.30
1.63 1.57 1.69 1.63 1.30 1.35
1.61 1.59 1.70 1.65 1.34 1.37
1.65 1.63 1.68 1.65 1.36 1.36
1.60 1.60 1.63 1.62 1.37 1.39
1.60 1.59 1.65 1.59 1.35 1.33
1.63 1.63 1.70 1.55 1.32 1.33
1.59 1.61 1.67 1.53 1.32 1.34
1.59 1.63 1.64 1.49 1.28 1.36
1.56 1.59 1.62 1.42 1.24 1.40
1.52 1.59 1.58 1.37 1.25 1.43
1.59 1.59 1.66 1.56 1.32 1.35
2.71 2.73 2.82 2.80 2.52 2.44
2.75 2.71 2.87 2.79 2.49 2.45
2.85 2.76 2.89 2.80 2.49 2.44
2.86 2.75 2.88 2.80 2.51 2.49
2.86 2.84 2.88 2.80 2.53 2.51
2.85 2.86 2.90 2.78 2.55 2.50
2.84 2.86 2.90 2.77 2.55 2.48
2.82 2.85 2.88 2.75 2.54 2.48
2.78 2.85 2.85 2.69 2.54 2.49
2.78 2.83 2.83 2.63 2.52 2.49
2.75 2.84 2.83 2.60 2.49 2.50
2.73 2.83 2.81 2.55 2.47 2.54
2.80 2.81 2.86 2.73 2.52 2.48
1.61 1.61 1.66 1.64 1.53 1.40
1.65 1.55 1.69 1.68 1.57 1.41
1.72 1.59 1.69 1.57 1.54 1.51
1.78 1.70 1.66 1.64 1.51 1.53
1.78 1.74 1.71 1.69 1.45 1.47
1.76 1.76 1.71 1.64 1.51 1.54
1.79 1.66 1.72 1.61 1.51 1.52
1.71 1.62 1.69 1.57 1.50 1.58
1.72 1.66 1.62 1.52 1.54 1.50
1.69 1.57 1.68 1.59 1.48 1.58
1.73 1.65 1.71 1.59 1.55 1.60
1.69 1.66 1.68 1.53 1.46 1.64
1.72 1.65 1.69 1.61 1.51 1.52
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes regular, shank and strip fillets; excludes breaded products. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
3
I ncludes steaks, nuggets and all other products not reported.
97
Flaxseed and Linseed Oil Flaxseed, also called linseed, is an ancient crop that was cultivated by the Babylonians around 3,000 BC. Flaxseed is used for fiber in textiles and to produce oil. Flaxseeds contain approximately 35% oil, of which 60% is omega3 fatty acid. Flaxseed or linseed oil is obtained through either expeller extraction or solvent extraction method. Manufacturers filter the processed oil to remove some impurities and then sell it as unrefined. Unrefined oil retains its full flavor, aroma, color, and naturally occurring nutrients. Flaxseed oil is used for cooking and as a dietary supplement as well as for animal feed. Industrial linseed oil is not for internal consumption due to possible poisonous additives and is used for making putty, sealants, linoleum, wood preservation, varnishes, and oil paints. Flaxseed futures and options trade at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange. The futures contract calls for the delivery of 20 metric tons of flaxseed. The contract is now priced in US dollars per metric ton. Prices – Flaxseed prices received by US farmers in December 2003 ended the calendar year at $5.97 per bushel, slightly higher than the 2002/3 marketing year (July/June) average of $5.91 and far higher than $4.53 in 2001/2 and $3.57 in 2000/1. Supply – World production of flaxseed in 2002/3 fell to 2.064 million metric tons from 2.159 million in 2001/2 and was sharply below the recent peak of 2.868 million in 1999/
World Production of Flaxseed
00. By far, the world’s largest producer of flaxseed is Canada with 35% of world production (2002/3), followed by China (23%), the US (16%), and India (10%). Chinese production in 2002/3 rose by 11% to 465,000 metric tons from 2001/2, while Canadian production fell 5% to 730,000 metric tons. US production rose by 10% to 319,000 metric tons. North Dakota is the king of US flaxseed production, accounting for 97% of US production. The 2003/4 US flaxseed crop promises to be small since farmers harvested only 572,000 acres, down from 704,000 in 2002/3. US production of linseed oil in 2002/3 rose slightly to 198 million pounds from 195 million in 2001/2. Demand – The demand (distribution) breakdown for the US flaxseed supply of 16.507 million bushels in 2002/3 was 10.150 million bushels for crushing into flaxseed oil and meal (accounting for 62% of overall supply), 3.150 million bushels for export (19%), 2.842 million as residual consumption (17%), and 365,000 bushels for seed (2%). US consumption of linseed oil in 2002/3 rose by 4% to 94.9 million pounds from 91.3 million in 2001/2. Trade – US exports of flaxseed in 2002/3 rose sharply by 32% to 3.150 million bushels from 2.386 million in 2001/ 2. US imports of flaxseed in 2002/3 fell even more sharply by 56% to 844,000 bushels from 1.903 million in 2001/2. The US is a net exporter of flaxseed, exporting more than three times what it imports.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Argentina
Australia
Bangladesh
Canada
China
Egypt
France
Hungary
India
Romania
United States
Former USSR
World Total
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22 2002-33
112 152 149 72 75 85 47 22 16 9
8 6 15 7 9 10 9 9 9 6
49 48 49 46 50 50 46 48 50 50
627 960 1,105 851 1,038 1,210 1,100 775 770 730
410 511 420 480 393 523 404 520 420 465
22 18 16 17 19 24 30 30 26 19
27 44 27 29 31 29 34 38 31 31
4 4 4 4 ---1 2 1 1 1
330 325 308 319 275 265 289 240 240 200
28 7 5 5 5 3 3 1 2 3
88 74 56 41 62 170 200 273 291 319
120 110 113 86 47 55 46 76 82 61
2,191 2,474 2,518 2,300 2,370 2,828 2,868 2,358 2,159 2,064
1
2
Year
Preliminary.
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
Supply and Distribution of Flaxseed in the United States Crop Year Beginning June 1
Planted
------- 1,000 Acres -------
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
Preliminary.
98
Harvested
178 165 96 151 336 387 536 585 785 595 2
Estimate.
Yield Per Acre (Bushels)
171 147 92 146 329 382 517 578 704 583 3
Forecast.
17.1 15.0 17.4 16.6 20.4 20.6 20.8 19.8 17.9 17.9
In Thousands of Bushels
------------------------- Supply ------------------------Beginning Stocks
Production
1,155 1,170 1,230 453 1,181 2,158 1,767 1,308 893
2,922 2,212 1,602 2,420 6,708 7,864 10,730 11,455 12,569 10,426
--------------------------------- Distribution -------------------------------
Imports
Total Supply
S eed
Crush
Exports
Residual
Total Distribution
6,005 7,248 8,390 9,636 5,992 6,629 2,850 1,903 2,650
10,082 10,630 11,222 12,509 13,881 16,651 15,347 14,666 18,157
134 78 122 272 313 434 474 636 472
8,550 9,000 10,000 10,500 10,600 11,500 12,000 10,000 10,300
72 119 144 174 476 215 1,015 2,386 2,900
156 203 503 382 333 2,735 572 751 890
8,912 9,400 10,769 11,328 11,723 14,884 14,039 13,773 14,562
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
FLAXSEED AND LINSEED OIL Production of Flaxseed in the United States, by States Crop Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Bushels
MInnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Other States
Total
Crop Year
MInnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Other States
Total
126 171 60 96 432
2,450 1,725 1,386 1,997 5,817
304 260 126 252 294
42 55 30 75 165
2,922 2,211 1,602 2,420 6,708
1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
300 198 52 90 161
6,867 9,975 10,900 12,240 9,900
357 361 323 44 144
340 196 180 195 221
7,864 10,730 11,455 12,569 10,426
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Factory Shipments of Paints, Varnish and Lacquer in the United States Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
3,039.8 3,330.3 3,438.6 3,515.2 3,600.7
3,783.0 3,838.0 4,161.9 4,023.4 4,216.4
3,736.2 3,814.5 3,954.9 3,924.1 4,063.9
3,240.8 3,423.4 3,428.9 3,323.0 3,804.4
13,800 14,406 14,984 14,786 15,685
1
Preliminary.
In Millions of Dollars
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
3,926.2 4,073.1 3,625.0 3,729.9 3,790.7
4,452.2 4,573.5 4,345.4 4,440.7 4,450.2
4,216.5 4,082.0 4,094.5 4,251.4 4,168.2
3,925.7 3,474.7 3,652.6 3,600.7 3,715.6
16,521 16,203 15,718 16,023 16,125
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Consumption of Linseed Oil (Inedible Products) in the United States
In Millions of Pounds
Year
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Total
9.0 8.9 7.2 5.4 6.5 9.6 11.7 7.9
10.8 7.7 6.8 6.2 7.2 8.4 9.6 6.9
7.8 8.6 6.4 5.5 7.3 9.2 10.0 6.0
6.0 6.7 5.6 5.2 7.5 7.4 7.0 6.8
6.7 7.5 4.6 5.6 6.5 5.3 5.7 3.5
6.1 6.4 6.6 4.5 5.7 5.0 7.3 5.0
6.7 8.0 5.9 4.2 8.0 8.2 6.8 5.6
7.1 6.0 4.7 6.1 6.7 7.1 6.4
6.3 6.2 6.8 5.8 7.7 6.9 8.7
8.3 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.5
8.9 6.8 5.6 7.6 9.3 7.7 6.6
8.5 5.7 7.9 6.6 9.4 8.7 6.7
92.3 84.3 74.6 69.8 89.3 91.3 94.9 71.5
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
USD Per Bushel ----- No. 1, Minneapolis (Jan. 1901 - Jan. 1986) CAD Per Metric Ton No. 1, Thunder Bay (Aug. 1991 - date) USD Per Bushel - - - Average Received by Farmers, US (July 1929 - date)
99
FLAXSEED AND LINSEED OIL Supply and Distribution of Linseed Oil in the United States Crop Year Beginning June 1
1
Stocks June 1
Production
Total
Exports
Domestic
Total Disappearance
Average Price at Minneapolis Cents/Lb.
54 63 45 50 35 35 45 49 43 45
174 172 180 200 205 207 224 234 195 201
228 235 225 250 240 249 272 293 238 246
7 24 26 66 58 63 76 100 90 92
162 166 149 149 140 138 147 150 103 109
165 190 175 215 198 201 223 250 193 201
31.8 33.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 37.5 37.8 36.0 36.0 33.0
-------------------------------- Supply ---------------------------------
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
Argentina
Bangladesh
1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32
32.2 46.8 47.5 17.1 24.1 24.5 13.1 6.2 3.8 2.0
12.7 13.0 13.0 12.5 13.4 13.6 12.6 12.9 13.5 13.6
1
2
Preliminary.
Forecast.
-------------------------------- Disappearance ---------------------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
World Production and Price of Linseed Oil Year
In Millions of Pounds
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Belgium
China
Egypt
Germany
India
28.8 35.2 44.3 52.1 54.7 59.2 68.8 75.2 95.0 88.9
121.8 137.4 125.1 142.5 120.0 150.0 118.3 134.5 125.8 124.9
8.6 8.2 8.0 9.6 11.1 15.2 15.0 23.0 16.4 15.8
77.2 104.0 72.0 52.2 66.9 74.1 73.6 63.4 57.3 55.0
90.7 91.4 88.1 90.0 84.3 80.1 85.9 74.7 73.7 65.0
Ja p a n
United States
Former USSR
World Total
30.7 29.2 30.0 31.0 31.3 26.5 23.8 21.1 18.9 11.2
35.2 41.4 28.9 34.1 35.1 34.3 34.1 17.0 9.9 8.1
78.7 81.7 80.0 97.9 100.7 107.6 124.9 114.7 98.8 107.3
11.2 10.6 12.7 16.5 7.2 10.7 7.9 15.1 17.8 11.8
617.9 697.5 665.3 676.7 678.6 731.2 709.6 668.3 632.4 602.7
476 657 579 560 686 575 413 378 454
Source: The Oil World
Average Price Received by Farmers for Flaxseed in the United States Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
Rotterdam Ex-Tank $/Tonne
United Kingdom
In Dollars Per Bushel
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Average
4.28 5.11 6.19 6.07 6.17 4.40 3.25 4.28 5.38 6.38
4.52 5.21 6.15 5.53 5.45 3.86 3.05 4.09 5.27 5.30
4.54 5.11 5.89 5.72 5.09 4.00 3.10 4.10 5.55 5.43
4.49 5.11 6.49 5.81 4.86 3.76 3.17 4.21 5.76 5.77
4.51 5.17 6.38 5.71 4.97 3.66 3.39 4.33 6.04 6.06
4.71 5.03 6.77 5.72 5.00 3.61 4.45 4.55 5.92 6.22
4.76 5.26 6.43 5.82 5.05 3.75 3.42 4.22 5.71 6.09
4.94 5.21 6.74 6.27 5.05 3.43 3.43 4.75 6.25 6.20
5.13 5.28 6.66 6.26 4.94 3.70 3.90 4.75 6.48
5.10 5.31 6.43 6.23 4.93 3.66 3.68 4.80 6.58
4.91 6.13 6.45 6.33 4.89 3.77 3.91 5.02 6.04
5.03 5.90 5.99 6.17 4.38 3.64 4.10 5.29 6.04
4.74 5.32 6.38 5.97 5.07 3.77 3.57 4.53 5.92 5.93
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Stocks of Linseed Oil (Crude and Refined) at Factories and Warehouses in the US
In Millions of Pounds
Year
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
D e c. 1
Jan. 1
F eb. 1
Mar. 1
Apr. 1
May 1
June 1
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
60.3 39.5 51.3 39.9 49.6 68.7 39.5 29.1 27.8 30.2
56.5 44.6 50.9 35.2 45.3 65.5 42.5 30.2 17.7 27.2
49.4 37.4 59.0 40.3 38.5 68.9 41.3 22.6 12.8 22.3
60.6 46.0 46.1 33.3 55.4 74.0 54.3 38.4 21.8 78.5
48.1 48.0 38.8 38.6 35.7 92.4 58.7 32.4 30.5 42.0
39.3 44.5 41.8 40.3 44.5 69.6 87.0 29.9 29.0 35.0
38.6 45.3 49.2 46.9 53.2 72.0 61.6 33.4 31.9 40.0
38.9 58.9 48.1 60.8 68.2 69.5 50.1 36.6 35.9 43.4
31.0 64.0 53.9 55.8 54.6 65.7 50.5 26.8 34.6
35.7 62.0 50.5 63.1 68.2 53.9 51.2 33.4 36.2
37.9 60.6 44.5 54.6 65.3 49.1 39.2 32.3 33.7
44.8 47.2 45.6 49.4 76.2 44.2 44.8 31.1 33.7
1
Preliminary.
100
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
FLAXSEED AND LINSEED OIL
Wholesale Price of Raw Linseed Oil at Minneapolis in Tank Cars Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Average
30.31 35.00 37.00 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 35.50 40.00 41.75
32.00 35.50 37.20 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 38.00 38.00 41.75
32.00 37.00 37.50 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00 42.00
33.50 37.00 37.00 37.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 31.75
35.00 37.00 33.75 37.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00
35.00 37.00 32.12 37.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00
35.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00
35.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00
35.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00
35.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.00 41.00
35.00 37.00 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 39.65 41.19
35.00 37.00 36.00 37.00 36.00 36.00 32.00 40.35 41.75
33.98 36.71 35.88 36.42 36.50 36.00 35.67 38.79 39.97 41.83
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Open Interest of Flaxseed Futures in Winnipeg Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Pound
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
6,118 6,242 6,059 5,420 10,059 4,372 4,365 4,101 2,225 235
6,201 8,731 6,056 5,356 10,190 4,552 4,907 3,476 1,981 316
5,946 7,505 4,402 5,591 9,707 4,533 5,588 4,270 1,921 477
5,519 7,121 5,192 5,151 8,540 4,238 6,218 3,043 1,787 604
4,683 8,107 6,970 4,923 6,480 3,719 5,066 3,169 1,270 394
3,945 7,212 4,435 4,075 6,874 2,456 3,696 3,661 935 489
4,301 6,436 3,102 3,891 6,030 2,149 3,152 2,745 612 298
4,654 5,557 2,989 4,031 6,767 2,758 3,585 2,350 699 305
4,997 6,230 3,257 7,131 7,421 3,725 3,936 2,400 776 253
3,077 5,245 3,438 8,284 7,221 4,236 4,666 3,158 704 193
4,888 5,937 4,326 7,255 7,564 4,493 4,922 2,726 424 94
5,251 4,414 5,119 7,955 5,828 4,276 4,914 3,031 249 49
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
Volume of Trading of Flaxseed Futures in Winnipeg Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
10,671 10,707 9,617 7,640 15,713 4,855 9,022 8,232 2,990 333
7,839 15,819 8,301 6,486 19,906 8,922 9,340 6,428 2,838 724
9,929 10,676 4,110 7,123 8,275 4,383 9,292 6,928 2,519 412
8,553 15,315 13,531 10,912 9,060 8,460 12,604 7,117 3,832 368
6,103 12,569 10,855 6,256 5,231 5,241 7,372 6,514 3,320 452
9,389 9,235 7,997 7,851 7,642 5,891 7,393 6,745 3,018 738
7,580 6,579 6,517 7,662 4,468 4,863 2,676 4,344 1,153 343
4,455 5,922 4,153 7,081 4,062 2,833 2,525 2,620 810 96
6,580 11,790 5,430 20,967 7,328 5,852 9,822 5,242 777 491
12,415 11,051 11,126 23,418 13,085 12,078 11,915 7,291 3,030 273
15,820 15,064 7,532 20,049 13,824 7,710 14,436 4,689 955 183
6,004 7,798 10,720 15,311 6,958 7,345 7,819 6,326 344 25
105,338 132,525 99,889 140,756 115,552 78,433 100,040 72,476 25,586 4,438
Source: Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE)
101
Fruits less grapes which rallied +6.0% to $1.85 per pound. The largest declines were seen in Valencia oranges, which fell – 14.1% to 52.4 cents per pound, and Delicious apples, which fell 5.5% to 86.8 cents per pound. Supply – US commercial production of selected fruits in 2001, the last reporting year, fell –8.8% to 32.992 million tons from 36.182 million tons in 2000. Oranges accounted for 37% of that US fruit production figure, followed by grapes at 20%, and apples at 15%. The value of US fruit production in 2001 was $11.694 billion. Demand – US per capita fresh fruit consumption in 2001 fell 3.0% to 97.53 pounds from 100.50 pounds in 2000 and the record high of 101.58 pounds in 1998. The highest per capita consumption categories for non-citrus fruits in 2001 were bananas (26.53 pounds), apples (15.81 pounds), grapes (7.59 pounds), nectarines and peaches (5.25 pounds), and strawberries (4.23 pounds). Per capital consumption of citrus fruits was the highest for oranges (12.32 pounds), followed by grapefruit (4.82 pounds) and lemons (2.96 pounds). The utilization breakdown for 2001 shows that 39% of total US fruit utilization went for fresh fruit, 21% for wine, 14% for dried fruit, 11% for canned fruit, 9% for juice, and 4% for frozen fruit.
A fruit is any seed-bearing structure produced from a flowering plant. A widely used classification system divides fruit into fleshy or dry types. Fleshy fruits are juicy and include peaches, mangos, apples, and blueberries. Dry fruits include tree nuts such as almonds, walnuts, and pecans. Some foods that are commonly called vegetables, such as tomatoes, squash, peppers and eggplant, are technically fruits because they develop from the ovary of a flower. Worldwide, over 430 million tons of fruit are produced each year and are grown everywhere except the Arctic and the Antarctic. The tropics, because of their abundant moisture and warm temperatures, produce the most diverse and abundant fruits. Mexico and Chile produce more than half of all the fresh and frozen fruit imported into the US. In the US, the top three fruits produced are oranges, grapes, and apples. Virtually all US production of almonds, pistachios, and walnuts occurs in California, which leads the US in tree nut production. Prices – Fruit prices were strong in 2001, the last reporting year, with the fresh fruit CPI index rising +2.6% to 265.1 and the processed fruit CPI index rising +2.0% to 109.0. The largest price increases in 2001 were seen in navel oranges which rallied 18% to 72.2 cents per pound, grapefruit which rallied +6.7% to 65.1 cents per pound, and seed-
Commercial Production for Selected Fruits in the United States Year
Apples Cherries2
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021
5,191 5,162 5,823 5,315 5,332 4,714 4,263
1
Preliminary.
2
290 373 371 344 351 415 213
Cranberries Grapes
234 275 272 318 286 267 284
Sweet and tart.
5,554 7,291 5,820 6,236 7,688 6,570 7,339 3
Grapefruit Lemons
2,718 2,885 2,593 2,513 2,763 2,462 2,424
992 962 897 747 840 996 801
Utilized production.
Nectarines Oranges Peaches
247 264 224 274 267 275 300
11,426 12,692 13,670 9,824 12,997 12,221 12,374
Pine- Prunes Strawapples & Plums berries Tangelos
347 324 332 352 354 323 320
952 899 559 735 902 651 736
813 814 820 916 979 826 943
110 178 128 115 99 95 97
Tangerines
Total All Fruits
349 425 360 327 458 373 420
30,904 35,507 34,582 30,802 36,105 32,908 33,264
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
In Thousands of Short Tons
-------------------------------- Utiliz ed Production --------------------------------
--------------------------------------- Value of Production -------------------------------------
Noncitrus Tree Nuts3 Total Citrus2 ------------------------- In Thousands of Short Tons -------------------------
Citrus2 Noncitrus Tree Nuts3 Total ------------------------------------ In Thousands of Dollars ----------------------------------
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
Pears
1,052 821 1,312 1,043 1,200 970 1,263 1,016 1,300 967 1,217 1,002 1,288 869
Utiliz ed Production for Selected Fruits in the United States
Year
In Thousands of Short Tons
15,712 17,271 17,770 13,633 17,276 16,216 16,194
16,103 18,363 16,545 17,331 18,923 16,734 17,126
831 1,210 908 1,288 1,086 1,304 1,448
32,646 36,844 35,223 32,252 37,209 34,254 34,856
2,517,394 2,582,767 2,600,066 2,431,179 2,513,174 2,319,917 2,610,559
7,265,788 8,158,095 7,257,288 8,070,840 7,930,668 7,924,741 8,136,447
1,663,574 2,093,697 1,365,349 1,505,926 1,496,584 1,513,063 2,053,290
11,446,756 12,834,559 11,222,703 12,007,945 11,898,193 11,743,693 12,819,421
Preliminary. 2 Year harvest was completed. 3 Tree nuts on an in-shell equivalent. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Annual Average Retail Prices for Selected Fruits in the United States
In Dollars Per Pound ------------- Oranges -------------
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
Estimate.
102
Red Delicious Apples
Bananas
.930 .907 .943 .897 .919 .868 .948
.490 .487 .494 .491 .501 .507 .508
Anjou Pears
Thompson Seedless Grapes
Lemons
Grapefruit
Navel
Valenci a s
.916 .985 1.089 .950 .986 .966 .997
1.685 1.712 1.589 1.841 1.745 1.850 1.887
1.114 1.154 1.198 1.236 1.289 1.265 1.391
.574 .520 .599 .612 .610 .651 .648
.707 .592 .565 .843 .613 .722 .836
.703 .682 .657 .947 .610 .524 .565
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
FRUITS Utiliz ation of Noncitrus Fruit Production, and Value in the U.S.
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2 0 0 21 1
Preliminary.
1,000 Short Tons (Fresh Equivalent)
Utilized Production
Fresh
Canned
Dried
Juice
Frozen
Wine
Other
Value of utilized Production $1,000
16,554 17,339 16,348 16,103 18,363 16,545 17,331 18,847 16,734 17,215
6,391 6,710 6,285 6,313 6,643 6,505 6,674 7,002 6,477 6,607
2,042 2,090 1,753 1,873 2,130 1,845 1,986 1,812 1,860 1,720
2,339 2,816 2,400 2,275 2,660 1,911 2,150 3,023 2,290 2,610
1,749 1,886 1,857 1,582 1,675 1,786 1,887 1,713 1,462 1,281
627 665 647 604 699 713 719 695 669 576
3,029 2,711 2,992 3,043 4,035 3,315 3,351 4,130 3,569 3,999
181 228 205 180 247 198 248 193 169 137
6,130,119 6,268,176 6,815,962 7,265,788 8,158,095 7,257,288 8,070,840 7,888,435 7,910,713 8,163,929
--------------------------------------------------------- Processed ---------------------------------------------------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Indexes for Fruits in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
----------------------------------------- Producer Price Index ---------------------------------------Fresh Dried Canned Fruits Frozen Fruits Fruit Fruit and Juices and Juices ------------------------------------------------ 1982 = 100 -------------------------------------------------
Index of all Fruit and Nut Prices Received by Growers (1990-92=100)
93 90 97 118 110 111 115 99 109 112
Estimate.
84.5 82.7 85.8 100.8 101.3 90.5 103.2 91.4 97.7 91.5
113.0 116.1 116.1 119.1 119.8 119.3 116.2 117.9 118.5 ----
126.1 126.0 129.4 137.5 137.5 138.6 130.0 131.7 143.4 141.7
Year
188.8 201.2 219.0 234.4 236.3 246.5 266.3 258.3 269.3 276.5
132.3 133.1 137.2 145.2 148.8 101.9 105.4 106.9 109.0 111.5
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Fresh Fruit: Per Capita Consumption1 in the United States
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022
110.9 111.9 115.8 123.9 117.3 ----------------
------- Consumer Price Index ------Fresh Processed Fruit Fruit -------------- 1982-84 = 100 --------------
----------------------------------- Citrus Fruit ---------------------------------------Tangerines Oranges and Tangelos Lemons Grapefruit Total
14.15 12.94 11.83 12.58 13.91 14.61 8.38 11.74 11.88 10.63
1.86 2.09 1.99 2.15 2.52 2.17 2.21 2.84 2.95 2.98
2.64 2.66 2.84 2.86 2.76 2.46 2.61 2.44 2.96 3.33
6.20 6.07 6.00 5.85 6.18 5.94 5.75 5.11 4.82 4.82
25.81 24.74 23.86 24.60 26.54 26.61 20.31 23.42 24.11 22.85
In Pounds
---------------------------------------------- Noncitrus Fruit ---------------------------------------CranApples Apricots Avacados Bananas Cherries berries
19.00 19.36 18.69 18.67 18.09 18.98 18.50 17.46 15.59 15.97
.13 .15 .10 .09 .14 .12 .12 .15 .08 .09
1.33 1.35 1.58 1.58 1.73 1.52 1.92 2.21 2.50 2.33
26.60 27.78 27.08 27.60 27.16 28.01 30.70 28.44 26.61 26.73
.43 .52 .29 .40 .60 .52 .63 .60 .77 .70
.07 .08 .08 .08 .07 .08 .11 .14 .13 .11
1
All data on calendar-year basis except for citrus fruits; apples, August; grapes and pears, July; grapefruit, September; lemons, August of prior year; all other citrus, November. 2 Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Fresh Fruit: Per Capita Consumption1 in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022
In Pounds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Noncitrus Fruit Continued -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Nectarines PinePlums & StrawTotal Total Grapes Kiwifruit Mangos & Peaches Pears apples Papaya Prunes berries Noncitrus Fruit
7.25 7.42 6.82 7.89 7.14 8.01 7.28 7.61 8.58
.57 .55 .54 .48 .55 .55 .56 .57 .49
.97 1.12 1.34 1.44 1.49 1.62 1.75 1.79 1.97
5.42 5.33 4.38 5.51 4.77 5.37 5.40 5.24 5.34
3.44 3.36 3.05 3.39 3.29 3.33 3.21 3.07 2.91
2.02 1.91 1.90 2.34 2.75 3.03 3.22 3.16 3.81
.30 .37 .54 .47 .47 .62 .68 .78 .79
1.60 .93 1.43 1.51 1.18 1.28 1.19 1.32 1.25
4.05 4.06 4.27 4.05 3.88 4.52 4.81 4.17 4.89
75.13 73.18 72.96 75.13 75.07 80.63 77.35 73.73 76.37
99.87 97.04 97.56 101.70 101.68 100.94 100.77 97.84 99.22
1
All data on calendar-year basis except for citrus fruits; apples, August; grapes and pears, July; grapefruit, September; lemons, August of prior year; all other citrus, November. 2 Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
103
Gas York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The NYMEX natural gas futures contract calls for the delivery of natural gas representing 10,000 million British thermal units (mmBtu) at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, which is the nexus of 16 intrastate and inter-state pipelines. The contract is priced in term of dollars per mmBtu. NYMEX also has basic swap futures contracts available for 30 different natural gas pricing locations against the benchmark Henry Hub location. Natural gas futures are also listed in London on the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Prices – NYMEX natural gas futures on the nearestfutures chart in 2003 showed an upward spike to a record high of $11.90 per mmBtu related to the start of the Iraq war, but then quickly settled back down to the $5-7 area through Q2 and Q3 2003. Natural gas prices then moved higher in December to post a 10-month high of $7.55 and closed the year at $6.19, up 16% from the 2002 close of $5.34. The rally late in the year was generally attributed to higher demand with the stronger economy, the weak dollar, and early cold weather in the US. However, inventories were also rising during that period and federal authorities started an investigation into allegations of price manipulation. Supply – The US recovered 24,130 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2002, down 1.4% from 2001. The world’s largest natural gas producers are Russia (with about 34% of world production), the US (30%), and Canada (10%).
Natural gas is a fossil fuel that is colorless, shapeless, and odorless in its pure form. It is a mixture of hydrocarbon gases formed primarily of methane, but it can also include ethane, propane, butane, and pentane. Natural gas is combustible, clean burning, and gives off a great deal of energy. In about 500 BC, the Chinese discovered that the energy in natural gas could be harnessed. They passed it through crude bamboo-shoot pipes and then burned it to boil sea water to create potable fresh water. Around 1785, Britain became the first country to commercially use natural gas produced from coal for streetlights and indoor lights. In 1821, William Hart dug the first well specifically intended to obtain natural gas, and is regarded by many as the “father of natural gas” in America. There is a vast amount of natural gas estimated to still be in the ground in the US, concentrated in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. In the US, the industrial sector accounts for 43% of natural gas used, with the residential sector coming in second. The major industries using natural gas include pulp and paper, metals, chemicals, petroleum refining, stone, clay and glass, plastic, and food processing. Natural gas as a source of energy has always been much cheaper than electricity for residential consumers. Natural gas costs less than 30% of the cost of electricity per Btu. Natural gas accounts for roughly one-quarter of all US energy consumption. Natural gas futures and options are traded on the New
World Production of Natural Gas (Monthly Average Marketed Production3) Australia
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 20032
87,178 96,912 99,461 99,077 95,265 92,440 92,746 96,523 96,841 93,959
Canada
China
Germany
Indonesia
480,577 511,447 530,891 537,295 538,273 569,819 588,447 594,397
57,036 58,261 72,609 81,954 84,033 79,523 90,287 98,431 106,720 109,099
52,911 55,714 62,479 61,804 60,748 62,651 59,164 60,463 61,147
190,775 203,633 248,574 248,585 274,281 282,485 267,707 258,122 276,990
India
Italy
Mexico
55,355 72,796 74,776 84,892 88,195 91,468 94,783 91,063 92,568 99,711
64,122 63,371 63,436 61,173 60,159 56,616 54,289 48,008 45,782 42,097
95,250 93,473 106,214 109,568 182,615 182,610 178,861 171,940 168,675 173,896
Netherlands
207,317 209,229 236,803 209,526 198,554 186,672 178,989 192,180 186,206
(In Terajoule4)
Romania
Russia
51,720 50,401 48,023 41,547 32,932 38,952 38,254 40,422 38,004 36,600
1,657,151 1,891,583 1,844,954 1,771,467 1,665,726 1,807,313 1,898,046 1,887,953 1,934,011 1,962,552
United Kingdom
United States
214,710 246,818 293,536 299,503 314,506 345,040 377,565 370,237 397,129
1,703,771 1,683,674 1,706,764 1,711,134 1,722,107 1,704,788 1,726,861 1,759,236 1,722,443
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Compares all gas collected & utilized as fuel or as a chemical industry raw material, including gas used in oilfields and/or NA = Not available. gasfields as a fuel by producers. 4 Terajoule = 10 to the 12th power Joule = approximately 10 to the 9th power BTU. Source: United Nations
Marketed Production of Natural Gas in the United States, by States Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 1
Alaska
California
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
430,350 555,402 469,550 480,828 468,311 466,648 462,967 458,995 471,440 464,669
315,851 309,427 279,555 286,494 285,690 315,277 382,715 376,580 377,824 360,559
400,985 453,207 523,084 572,071 637,375 696,321 722,738 752,985 696,237 605,384
686,347 712,730 721,436 712,796 687,215 603,586 553,419 525,729 480,145 450,801
4,991,138 5,169,705 5,108,366 5,289,742 5,229,821 5,277,188 5,275,730 5,068,863 5,456,463 1,537,769
Preliminary.
104
Michigan Mississippi
204,635 222,657 238,203 245,740 305,950 278,076 277,364 296,556 275,036 275,363
80,695 63,448 95,533 103,263 107,300 108,068 111,021 88,558 107,541 112,812
(In Million Cubic Feet)
New Mexico
Oklahoma
1,409,429 1,557,689 1,625,837 1,554,087 1,558,633 1,501,098 1,511,671 1,695,295 1,689,125 1,579,130
2,049,942 1,934,864 1,811,734 1,734,887 1,703,888 1,669,367 1,594,002 1,612,890 1,615,384 1,623,152
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Wyoming
Total
6,249,624 634,957 6,353,844 696,018 6,330,048 673,775 6,470,620 666,036 6,453,873 738,368 6,408,444 903,836 6,211,613 971,230 6,205,249 1,088,328 6,335,794 1,363,879 5,251,807 1,436,692
Texas
18,981,915 19,709,525 19,506,474 19,812,241 19,866,093 19,961,348 19,804,848 20,197,511 20,630,412 19,968,906
GAS World Production of Natural Gas Plant Liquids Year
Algeria
Canada
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
140 145 150 160 155 190 230 250 250 250
529 581 596 636 651 653 699 709 698 725
461 447 423 388 424 439 438 433 408 418
698 701 697 712 755 666 705 680 810 1,011
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031
(Thousand Barrels per Day) Russia
United States
Persian Gulf2
OAPEC3
OPEC4
World
200 180 185 195 220 231 232 237 236 257
1,727 1,762 1,830 1,817 1,759 1,850 1,911 1,868 1,880 1,720
1,071 1,106 1,082 1,152 1,225 1,153 1,253 1,347 1,508 1,756
1,267 1,301 1,295 1,384 1,449 1,412 1,578 1,706 1,873 2,119
1,465 1,506 1,501 1,589 1,662 1,648 1,798 1,933 2,098 2,328
5,299 5,492 5,585 5,729 5,883 5,995 6,289 6,601 6,812 7,102
1
Preliminary. 2 Bahrain, I ran, I raq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 3 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. 4 Organization of Pertroleum Exporting Countries. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Recoverable Reserves and Deliveries of Natural Gas in the United States
Year
Gross Withdrawals
Recoverable Reserves of Natural Gas D e c. 3 1 2
22,726 23,581 23,744 24,114 24,213 24,108 23,823 24,174 24,476 24,130
162,415 163,837 165,146 166,474 167,223 164,041 167,406 177,427 183,460 186,946
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2 0 0 21
----------------------------------------- Deliveries -----------------------------------------Electric Utility Total Plants3 Residential Commercial Industrial Deliveries
4,956 4,848 4,850 5,241 4,984 4,520 4,726 4,996 4,776 4,906
2,863 2,897 3,034 3,161 3,215 2,999 3,045 3,218 3,037 3,154
2,682 2,987 3,197 2,732 4,065 4,588 4,820 5,206 5,343 5,672
7,981 8,167 8,580 8,870 8,511 8,320 8,079 8,142 7,363 7,222
(in Billions of Cubic Feet) Heating Value BTU per Cubic Foot
------- Consumption ------Used as L e a se & Pipeline Plant Fuel Fuel
18,483 18,899 19,660 20,006 20,782 20,436 20,679 21,538 20,477 20,969
1,172 1,124 1,220 1,250 1,203 1,173 1,079 1,151 1,089 1,053
624 685 700 711 751 635 645 642 624 635
1,027 1,028 1,027 1,027 1,026 1,031 1,027 1,025 1,028
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimated proved recoverable reserves of dry natural gas. 3 Figures include gas other than natural (impossible to segregate); therefore, shown separately from other consumption. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Gas U tility S ales in th e U n ited S tates b y Typ es an d C lass o f S ervice Total Number of Uti li ty Customers Sales (Mi lli ons)
Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 20002 1
9,907 10,151 9,248 9,221 9,532 8,880 8,630 8,889 9,052
P reliminary.
2
------------------------- C lass b y S ervice ------------------------Resi - CommerElectri c denti al ci al Industri al Generati on Other
56.1 57.0 57.9 58.7 59.8 59.8 60.4 64.0 64.1
E stimate.
4,694 5,054 4,845 4,803 5,198 5,013 4,828 4,865 4,941
2,209 2,397 2,253 2,281 2,395 2,234 2,157 2,087 2,116
1,959 2,009 1,690 1,591 1,519 1,279 1,153 1,200 1,382
813 524 420 328 271 245 336 644 522
231 168 159 218 148 123 117 69 91
(In Tri lli ons of BTUs)
------------ R even u e - Millio n $ F ro m S ales to C u sto mers -----------Resi - CommerElectri c Total denti al ci al i ndustri al Generati on Other
46,178 50,137 49,852 46,436 51,115 51,531 47,930 48,423 59,667
26,702 29,787 30,552 28,742 32,021 33,175 31,333 31,472 37,446
10,865 12,076 12,276 11,573 12,726 12,632 11,523 11,133 13,648
5,837 6,162 5,529 4,816 5,039 4,518 3,779 3,883 6,011
2,077 1,480 1,170 836 783 766 899 1,664 2,058
698 632 597 549 545 488 391 272 504
S ource: American Gas Associat ion (AGA)
Salient Statistics of Natural Gas in the United States
Year
------------------------------- Supply ------------------------------- ---------------- Disposition ---------------- --------- Average Price Delivered to Consumers --------MarWellTotal A dded Dry Storage Imports keted Extrachead Resi- Com- Indus- Electric to D i sTotal ConWith- (Contion ProProtrial Utilities Loss duction drawals sumed) Supply sumption Exports Storage position Price Imports Exports dential mercial duction ------------------------------------------- In Billions of Cubic Feet ------------------------------------------------ --------------- USD Per Thousand Cubic Feet ---------------
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
18,982 886 19,710 889 19,506 908 19,812 958 19,866 964 19,961 938 19,805 973 20,198 1,016 20,630 954 19,969 922
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
18,095 18,821 18,599 18,854 18,902 19,024 18,832 18,182 19,676 19,047
2,799 2,579 3,025 2,981 2,894 2,432 2,808 3,550 2,344 3,126
2,350 2,624 2,841 2,937 2,994 3,152 3,586 3,782 3,977 4,008
23,578 24,207 24,837 25,635 25,502 24,859 25,055
20,790 21,247 22,207 22,610 22,737 22,246 22,405 23,368 22,246 22,534
140 162 154 153 157 159 163 244 373 516
2,835 2,865 2,610 2,979 2,870 2,961 2,636 2,721 3,509 2,679
22,726 23,581 23,744 24,114 24,213 24,108 23,823 24,174 24,476 24,130
2.04 2.03 1.85 1.87 1.55 1.49 2.17 1.97 2.32 2.17 1.96 1.97 2.19 2.24 3.69 3.95 4.02 4.43 2.95 3.15
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
2.59 2.50 2.39 2.97 3.02 2.45 2.61 4.10 4.19 3.41
6.16 6.41 6.06 6.34 6.94 6.82 6.69 7.76 9.64 7.88
5.22 5.44 5.05 5.40 5.80 5.48 5.33 6.59 8.43 6.57
3.07 3.05 2.71 3.42 3.59 3.14 3.12 4.45 5.28 3.99
2.61 2.28 2.02 2.69 2.78 2.40 2.62 4.38 4.61 3.78
105
GAS Average Open Interest of Natural Gas Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
127,254 148,448 155,024 156,231 192,652 244,472 262,845 364,532 458,924 415,642
128,336 151,882 150,521 162,567 198,853 268,649 266,826 346,343 491,215 420,329
118,480 157,097 149,809 171,467 203,402 284,312 295,176 360,032 527,765 367,673
119,908 150,101 159,132 181,745 251,344 315,336 313,739 380,632 559,413 354,154
120,894 148,797 147,616 206,685 255,837 332,398 342,455 421,145 556,277 365,838
120,956 144,402 156,959 197,637 264,517 330,725 347,353 456,512 526,016 366,610
111,044 143,942 151,913 199,296 255,878 316,034 330,604 473,675 494,133 357,299
135,652 140,297 135,191 213,640 273,350 353,767 339,025 497,972 437,285 343,622
156,238 135,226 138,657 235,509 275,868 336,622 373,654 494,475 419,532 354,568
145,766 133,969 144,944 242,184 252,827 316,157 369,448 488,187 413,312 352,685
139,471 140,301 147,854 231,556 236,292 309,130 389,363 455,766 393,953 356,622
139,054 166,227 151,498 210,259 240,832 292,161 377,470 415,882 391,424 341,871
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Volume of Trading of Natural Gas Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
(In Thousands of Contracts)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
667.6 733.0 887.2 922.8 1,005.6 1,296.7 1,388.8 1,044.4 1,942.5 2,134.4
470.9 557.8 655.7 693.6 1,089.1 1,158.6 1,470.9 1,044.6 1,668.6 1,909.1
373.5 676.1 694.6 664.7 1,193.5 1,788.5 1,505.0 1,131.7 2,381.1 1,362.4
344.7 524.5 620.0 836.3 1,625.9 1,655.8 1,179.3 1,144.8 2,421.7 1,321.3
411.1 621.3 590.7 945.4 1,245.2 1,465.3 1,822.2 1,632.5 2,281.4 1,521.7
465.8 622.5 681.3 803.7 1,568.8 1,474.2 1,853.7 1,536.9 1,911.7 1,584.8
438.8 641.8 829.0 812.9 1,310.4 1,865.8 1,331.4 1,350.3 2,266.1 1,543.7
724.2 745.6 628.8 1,313.8 1,237.0 1,892.1 1,483.9 1,510.9 2,115.6 1,315.3
578.7 548.3 679.1 1,377.1 1,656.3 1,978.6 1,510.2 901.1 1,990.0 1,503.7
594.2 664.4 924.4 1,394.0 1,339.5 1,676.5 1,594.9 1,639.7 2,103.4 1,948.9
621.9 763.0 802.8 1,104.8 1,243.1 1,552.3 1,759.5 1,891.7 1,569.2 1,376.6
721.8 988.5 820.4 1,054.6 1,464.0 1,360.7 975.1 1,639.6 1,706.4 1,515.2
6,413.2 8,086.7 8,813.9 11,923.6 15,978.3 19,165.1 17,875.0 16,468.4 24,357.8 19,037.1
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Average Price of Natural Gas at Henry Hub
In Dollars Per MMBtu
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2.49 1.51 2.93 3.31 2.10 1.85 2.42 8.18 2.25 5.49
2.59 1.58 4.82 2.22 2.22 1.77 2.65 5.62 2.31 7.41
2.08 1.54 2.95 1.89 2.24 1.79 2.79 5.16 3.03 6.08
2.05 1.63 2.23 2.03 2.43 2.15 3.03 5.16 3.42 5.27
1.87 1.64 2.24 2.24 2.14 2.25 3.58 4.21 3.49 5.81
1.96 1.62 2.49 2.20 2.17 2.30 4.28 3.71 3.22 5.83
1.88 1.44 2.48 2.19 2.17 2.31 3.96 3.11 2.98 5.03
1.59 1.56 2.03 2.48 1.85 2.79 4.41 2.95 3.09 4.97
1.48 1.64 1.84 2.85 2.02 2.54 5.11 2.15 3.55 4.61
1.54 1.77 2.37 3.04 1.89 2.72 5.02 2.45 4.12 4.66
1.54 2.04 3.03 3.02 2.10 2.35 5.54 2.35 4.04 4.47
1.69 2.71 3.91 2.36 1.72 2.36 8.95 2.43 4.75 6.13
1.90 1.72 2.78 2.49 2.09 2.27 4.31 3.96 3.35 5.48
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
106
Gasoline Gasoline is a complex mixture of hundreds of lighter liquid hydrocarbons and is used chiefly as a fuel for internal-combustion engines. Gasoline is the single largest volume refined product sold in the US. Petroleum crude, or crude oil, is still the most economical source of gasoline with refineries turning more than half of every barrel of crude oil into gasoline. The three basic steps to all refining operations are the separation process (separating crude oil into various chemical components), conversion process (breaking the chemicals down into molecules called hydrocarbons), and treatment process (transforming and combining hydrocarbon molecules and other additives). Another process, called hydro treating, removes a significant amount of sulfur from finished gasoline as is currently required by the state of California. Octane is a measure of a gasoline’s ability to resist pinging or knocking noise from an engine. Most gasoline stations offer three octane grades of unleaded fuel—regular at 87 (R+M)/2, midgrade at 89 (R+M)/2, and premium at 93 (R+M)/2. Higher octane ratings mean less engine knock. Additional refining steps are needed to increase the octane. This does not make the gasoline any cleaner or better, but yields a different blend of hydrocarbons that burn more slowly. The additional refining steps also increase the price per gallon. In an attempt to improve air quality and reduce harmful emissions from internal combustion engines, Congress in 1990 amended the Clean Air Act to mandate the addition of ethanol to gasoline. Some 2 billion gallons of ethanol is now added to gasoline each year in the US. The most common blend is E10, which contains 10% ethanol and 90%
gasoline and that mixture is approved by all auto manufacturers for use in US vehicles. Ethanol is an alcohol-based fuel produced by fermenting and distilling crops such as corn, barley, wheat and sugar. Unleaded gasoline futures and options trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The NYMEX gasoline futures contract calls for the delivery of 1,000 barrels (42,000 gallons) of unleaded gasoline in the New York harbor and is priced in terms of dollars and cents per gallon. Prices – Gasoline prices generally followed crude oil prices during 2003, rallying early in the year ahead of the Iraq war, dipping in spring, and then showing a sustained rally late in the year on tight supplies and strong demand. NYMEX unleaded gasoline futures closed 2003 at $1.02 per gallon, mildly higher than the 92-cent close in 2002. However, that was at the upper end of the range seen in the past two decades. The retail price of regular unleaded gasoline averaged $1.61 per gallon in 2003 (through October), the highest level of the past three decades and up from $1.36 in 2002. The retail price of aviation gasoline rose to an average $1.50 in 2003 from $1.29 in 2002. Supply – US production of gasoline in 2003 averaged 8.467 million barrels per day, slightly lower than 8.475 million barrels per day in 2002. Gasoline stocks in September 2003 were tight at 145 million barrels, down from 162 million in 2002 and 2001. Demand – US consumption of finished motor gasoline in 2003 averaged 8.929 million barrels per day, up +0.9% from 2002. Gasoline accounts for about one-half of US national oil consumption.
Average Spot Price of Unleaded Gasoline in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
42.40 50.99 50.70 67.64 47.85 34.24 70.43 83.32 54.30 87.56
43.75 51.43 53.26 62.49 45.14 31.81 81.30 82.56 55.41 99.62
44.04 50.74 58.56 61.28 44.13 42.33 89.11 78.18 69.64 95.51
48.98 61.01 69.17 58.59 46.98 50.11 73.15 94.95 74.66 80.08
50.62 64.76 65.10 62.08 48.26 48.86 89.06 92.37 70.32 76.16
52.84 59.47 58.03 55.17 43.95 48.65 96.18 71.85 71.65 80.65
54.52 51.45 61.65 58.58 42.29 58.35 86.76 68.31 76.62 87.17
55.61 53.45 61.17 70.42 40.14 63.89 86.97 77.18 76.75 100.42
46.53 56.10 62.43 62.17 42.70 69.37 96.04 75.00 78.36 90.41
51.14 48.89 65.52 58.35 43.71 62.63 94.71 59.79 82.34 87.12
52.32 51.15 69.23 55.60 36.78 69.57 93.94 51.34 76.08 87.33
46.87 53.44 68.58 51.75 30.92 70.55 73.66 51.85 80.56 88.37
49.14 54.41 61.95 60.34 42.74 54.20 85.94 73.89 72.22 88.37
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Open Interest of Unleaded Regular Gasoline Futures in New York
In Contracts
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
135,366 61,015 64,561 68,188 106,353 105,532 89,049 117,540 136,795 117,558
120,204 67,631 64,990 84,693 102,656 113,683 103,586 126,762 139,191 124,288
118,977 65,201 70,100 92,520 108,667 111,449 105,448 124,631 133,649 113,380
122,092 76,323 71,895 97,619 117,521 110,531 105,133 124,162 129,274 98,627
96,525 76,269 66,172 90,407 107,235 107,644 103,831 111,576 120,224 96,405
89,854 69,676 52,882 78,492 100,792 102,927 96,772 103,058 114,663 93,285
86,401 64,379 55,394 83,082 89,846 113,619 80,886 101,249 106,463 95,433
76,213 58,426 55,618 103,538 86,902 120,468 66,598 92,156 94,648 99,394
67,881 62,089 57,119 103,250 85,188 120,328 74,735 87,841 95,754 85,457
70,258 58,782 59,993 94,602 81,991 111,758 80,446 102,414 100,427 90,007
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Nov.
D e c.
71,245 63,679 57,902 70,098 58,416 62,760 92,852 103,497 87,306 103,079 109,428 96,652 88,509 92,041 115,699 126,634 105,175 109,737 95,002 105,895
107
GASOLINE
USD Per Gallon ----- New York Harbor
Volume of Trading of Unleaded Regular Gasoline Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
634.0 592.3 543.8 590.1 613.6 561.5 693.6 825.2 795.0 1,054.1
526.5 506.6 449.5 563.2 612.3 619.7 721.9 701.2 744.7 968.7
615.6 736.7 570.3 605.1 766.4 876.4 921.6 809.2 942.7 1,010.9
677.9 663.7 676.2 623.2 789.3 741.5 730.0 981.0 1,019.3 909.0
637.0 780.6 623.3 618.3 681.1 721.1 927.5 1,056.5 985.2 933.7
673.0 680.8 468.0 555.5 753.1 737.7 838.5 895.0 834.5 944.0
602.0 565.7 533.8 721.4 680.6 822.0 650.6 737.3 967.8 987.5
748.4 556.6 463.8 795.4 592.0 800.4 677.2 790.8 893.6 1,021.5
569.4 573.6 469.0 664.9 654.2 751.3 641.2 581.9 867.6 943.0
684.7 473.0 527.6 613.6 670.2 705.1 635.7 664.9 1,105.0 877.1
582.4 480.5 487.6 509.9 577.8 748.8 612.1 613.3 865.9 760.8
520.0 461.7 499.3 614.6 601.7 615.7 595.1 567.2 958.4 761.6
7,470.8 7,071.8 6,312.3 7,475.1 7,992.3 8,701.2 8,645.2 9,223.5 10,979.7 11,172.1
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Production of Finished Motor Gasoline in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
7,097 7,303 7,333 7,308 7,749 7,886 7,798 7,888 8,160 8,038
6,790 7,243 7,303 7,315 7,485 7,607 7,658 7,822 8,117 8,031
6,760 7,168 7,242 7,322 7,591 7,531 8,032 8,011 8,072 7,917
7,195 7,529 7,475 7,822 8,029 8,138 8,130 8,450 8,626 8,449
7,348 7,678 7,724 8,056 8,057 8,207 8,398 8,651 8,729 8,780
7,455 7,843 7,820 8,180 8,372 8,402 8,550 8,637 8,661 8,694
7,380 7,747 7,811 7,947 8,287 8,280 8,320 8,481 8,665 8,653
7,432 7,642 7,696 8,048 8,200 8,183 8,251 8,277 8,666 8,773
7,385 7,785 7,585 8,147 8,029 8,187 8,358 8,381 8,320 8,524
7,151 7,544 7,496 8,039 7,995 8,266 8,031 8,446 8,190 8,578
7,849 7,739 7,835 7,984 8,263 8,142 8,394 8,366 8,738 8,764
7,867 7,821 7,784 8,143 8,395 8,471 8,298 8,301 8,734 8,759
7,312 7,588 7,647 7,870 8,082 8,111 8,186 8,312 8,475 8,497
Preliminary.
108
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
GASOLINE Disposition of Finished Motor Gasoline, Total Product Supplied in the U.S. Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
6,980 7,163 7,254 7,312 7,590 7,701 7,653 8,099 8,227 8,504
7,275 7,481 7,552 7,651 7,755 8,031 8,291 8,234 8,607 8,540
7,395 7,788 7,729 7,808 7,956 8,128 8,305 8,532 8,655 8,585
7,564 7,651 7,869 8,067 8,137 8,506 8,375 8,575 8,766 8,785
7,644 7,894 7,998 8,128 8,070 8,420 8,661 8,706 9,078 9,097
7,922 8,220 8,089 8,260 8,437 8,886 8,824 8,690 9,140 9,165
7,884 7,888 8,135 8,471 8,659 8,942 8,642 9,023 9,143 9,209
7,975 8,187 8,216 8,195 8,500 8,579 8,921 8,953 9,313 9,410
7,615 7,786 7,641 8,004 8,308 8,305 8,518 8,557 8,687 8,927
7,548 7,781 8,038 8,166 8,405 8,542 8,417 8,655 8,814 9,037
7,464 7,866 7,875 7,955 8,136 8,240 8,384 8,677 8,829 8,949
7,924 7,742 7,775 8,093 8,401 8,859 8,670 8,585 8,893 9,004
7,601 7,789 7,891 8,017 8,253 8,431 8,472 8,610 8,848 8,934
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Stocks of Finished Gasoline2 on Hand in the United States, at End of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
194.1 182.7 168.7 164.9 175.3 185.2 165.3 158.7 169.7 158.4
186.2 180.0 168.4 161.3 172.8 178.4 156.4 154.6 165.5 152.1
175.6 167.8 158.3 153.8 166.4 167.8 157.1 144.7 159.8 145.0
176.4 167.1 159.8 152.0 168.3 168.9 160.6 150.3 167.0 151.9
179.0 167.1 161.8 157.8 174.9 176.5 162.2 160.1 168.3 156.1
176.9 163.5 163.8 163.9 177.7 172.3 164.5 169.4 167.6 153.4
172.9 166.0 163.7 150.6 172.5 163.6 164.6 162.3 164.8 149.6
167.6 154.6 154.9 149.6 168.8 158.6 151.0 150.6 157.3 144.7
169.2 158.9 161.3 158.1 164.7 159.2 154.2 158.0 157.4 144.8
161.7 155.6 149.1 158.0 160.0 158.8 147.4 160.2 148.2 140.3
176.6 155.6 150.7 161.1 167.5 160.5 156.7 161.2 158.0 145.9
175.9 161.3 157.0 166.1 172.0 151.6 153.0 161.5 161.9
Preliminary.
2
I ncludes oxygenated and other finished.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Average Refiner Price of Finished Motor Gasoline to End Users1 in the U.S. Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 1
In Millions of Barrels
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
66.8 74.5 74.6 86.6 73.3 59.2 91.7 106.8 70.6 106.0
67.6 73.3 74.8 86.1 69.0 56.8 98.7 106.7 71.8 122.1
67.3 73.1 79.8 84.3 65.6 65.1 113.1 103.9 87.2 130.0
69.5 77.3 88.1 83.9 67.4 79.0 108.7 117.7 100.4 120.1
71.1 83.4 92.7 84.5 71.0 78.2 110.3 130.1 99.9 110.0
74.1 83.9 90.3 83.3 70.4 75.6 121.3 120.7 99.1 109.3
77.0 80.0 87.5 81.5 69.4 80.6 117.3 103.2 100.3 110.6
81.5 76.9 84.9 86.8 66.7 86.5 110.3 102.5 100.1 123.1
79.6 75.8 84.4 87.2 65.4 88.8 117.5 1,009.2 100.1 126.5
76.9 73.6 84.4 84.3 66.4 87.1 115.5 89.9 104.0 115.0
77.5 71.8 86.7 81.6 64.0 88.4 113.5 76.9 101.2 109.5
75.1 73.0 85.9 77.8 60.0 90.3 106.3 68.5 98.1
73.8 76.5 84.7 83.9 67.3 78.1 110.6 103.2 94.7 116.6
Excludes aviation and taxes.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
109
GASOLINE Average Retail Price of Unleaded Premium Motor Gasoline2 in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
124.0 132.4 131.7 144.1 131.9 117.1 148.6 165.7 132.3 166.6
124.5 131.6 131.1 143.4 127.1 115.5 155.1 167.1 133.0 182.8
124.3 130.6 134.8 141.5 122.9 118.6 172.3 163.8 145.0 192.4
126.0 132.5 143.1 141.3 123.7 136.7 169.8 174.8 162.2 184.6
127.4 138.3 150.7 140.9 127.5 137.0 168.2 193.4 162.5 172.9
130.0 141.1 148.1 141.1 127.9 133.9 178.6 188.1 160.8 170.0
132.7 138.4 145.3 138.8 126.8 137.8 177.3 169.5 160.7 171.0
136.7 135.2 142.1 143.3 124.4 144.1 168.9 163.6 162.0 180.8
136.4 133.2 141.7 145.8 123.0 146.8 176.4 172.6 161.9 191.1
134.5 131.5 140.8 142.6 123.6 146.4 174.4 156.0 164.3 178.9
135.4 129.2 142.8 139.7 122.5 145.4 173.8 142.7 164.3 172.4
133.7 129.0 143.8 136.3 118.7 148.6 167.9 131.2 158.9 168.6
130.5 133.6 141.3 141.6 125.0 135.7 169.3 165.7 157.8 177.7
Preliminary.
2
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
I ncluding taxes.
Average Retail Price of Unleaded Regular Motor Gasoline2 in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
104.3 112.9 112.9 126.1 113.1 97.2 130.1 147.2 113.9 147.3
105.1 112.0 112.4 125.5 108.2 95.5 136.9 148.4 113.0 164.1
104.5 111.5 116.2 123.5 104.1 99.1 154.1 144.7 124.1 174.8
106.4 114.0 125.1 123.1 105.2 117.7 150.6 156.4 140.7 165.9
108.0 120.0 132.3 122.6 109.2 117.8 149.8 172.9 142.1 154.2
110.6 122.6 129.9 122.9 109.4 114.8 161.7 164.0 140.4 151.4
113.6 119.5 127.2 120.5 107.9 118.9 159.3 148.2 141.2 152.4
118.2 116.4 124.0 125.3 105.2 125.5 151.0 142.7 142.3 162.8
117.7 114.8 123.4 127.7 103.3 128.0 158.2 153.1 142.2 172.8
115.2 112.7 122.7 124.2 104.2 127.4 155.9 136.2 144.9 160.3
116.3 110.1 125.0 121.3 102.8 126.4 155.5 126.3 144.8 153.5
114.3 110.1 126.0 117.7 98.6 129.8 148.9 113.1 139.4 149.4
111.2 114.7 123.1 123.4 105.9 116.5 151.0 146.1 135.8 159.1
Preliminary.
2
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
I ncluding taxes.
Average Retail Price of All-Types2 Motor Gasoline3 in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
110.9 119.0 118.6 131.8 118.6 103.1 135.6 152.5 120.9 155.7
111.4 118.1 118.1 131.2 113.7 101.4 142.2 153.8 121.0 168.6
110.9 117.3 121.9 129.3 109.7 104.8 159.4 150.3 132.4 179.1
112.8 119.7 130.5 128.8 110.6 123.2 156.1 161.7 149.3 170.4
114.3 125.6 137.8 128.4 114.6 123.3 155.2 181.2 150.8 158.7
116.7 128.1 135.4 128.6 114.8 120.4 166.6 173.1 148.9 155.8
119.9 125.2 132.8 126.3 113.4 124.4 164.2 156.5 149.6 156.7
124.3 122.2 129.8 131.0 110.8 130.9 155.9 150.9 150.8 167.1
123.7 120.6 129.3 133.4 109.1 133.4 163.5 160.9 150.7 177.1
121.2 118.5 128.7 130.0 109.9 132.9 161.3 144.2 153.5 164.6
122.2 116.1 130.8 127.1 108.6 131.9 160.8 132.4 153.4 157.8
120.3 116.0 131.8 123.6 104.6 135.3 154.4 120.0 147.7 153.8
117.4 120.5 128.8 129.1 111.5 122.1 156.3 153.1 144.1 163.8
1 Preliminary. 2 Also includes types of motor oil not shown separately. U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
3
I ncluding taxes.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration,
Average Refiner Price of Finished Aviation Gasoline to End Users2 in the U.S. Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
88.6 99.6 97.6 113.7 104.3 87.1 118.7 128.5 111.8 139.7
88.4 99.8 100.6 114.9 101.1 85.1 119.5 129.2 110.6 NA
89.0 99.0 105.0 113.8 98.2 90.1 129.1 124.5 122.6 NA
91.3 101.3 111.2 114.7 98.6 101.4 124.3 134.9 129.8 NA
92.3 105.8 114.4 115.7 99.9 104.2 126.8 150.9 128.9 139.8
95.6 106.4 113.5 114.6 99.0 104.1 139.8 145.1 127.3 145.1
95.9 101.8 113.7 112.5 98.4 107.9 142.6 134.6 139.2 151.9
101.7 99.2 114.4 114.6 95.9 113.2 NA 136.3 136.9 162.2
101.1 101.3 114.3 115.6 94.1 115.4 138.2 142.4 139.1 158.9
100.0 96.8 115.0 113.9 95.1 117.6 134.9 125.3 143.0 150.8
100.0 95.4 115.1 113.0 93.2 116.4 134.9 119.4 141.8
99.2 96.0 115.3 107.7 88.5 119.6 126.1 115.8 139.8
95.6 100.5 111.6 113.8 97.2 105.9 130.6 132.3 128.8 149.8
Preliminary.
110
In Cents per Gallon
Jan.
2
Excluding taxes.
NA = Not available.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department Energy (EI A-DOE)
Gold Gold is a dense, bright yellow metallic element with a high luster. Gold is an inactive substance and is unaffected by air, heat, moisture, and most solvents. Gold has been coveted for centuries for its unique blend of rarity, beauty, and near indestructibility. It is known that the Egyptians mined gold before 2,000 BC. The first pure gold coin was made on the orders of King Croesus of Lydia in the sixth century BC. In 1792, the United States first assigned a formal monetary role for gold when Congress put the nation’s currency on a bimetallic standard, backing it with gold and silver. Under the gold standard, the US governance was willing to exchange its paper currency for a set amount of gold, thus ensuring that the paper currency was backed by a physical asset with real value. However, President Nixon in 1971 severed the convertibility between the US dollar and gold, which led to the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international payments system. That meant that the prices of gold and of paper currencies floated freely according to supply and demand factors in their own markets. The US and other central banks now only hold physical gold reserves as a psychological backing for their paper currencies. World central banks hold a little over 1 billion troy ounces of gold, which equates to roughly $400 billion worth of gold (assuming a gold price of $400 per ounce). The US holds the most gold with roughly 262 million troy ounces, followed by Germany (112 million), and France (97 million). Although the US holds roughly $100 billion worth of gold, that is a mere fraction of the total US debt or the amount of outstanding US currency, illustrating that gold now plays an insignificant role in backing the dollar or paper currencies. Gold is found in nature in quartz veins and secondary alluvial deposits as a free metal. Gold is produced from mines on every continent with the exception of Antarctica, where mining is forbidden. Because it is virtually indestructible, all the gold that has ever been mined still exists above ground in some form or another. South Africa remains the world’s largest producing nation. The largest producer of gold in the US by far is the state of Nevada, with Alaska and California running a distant second and third. Gold is a vital industrial commodity. Pure gold is one of the most malleable and ductile of all the metals. It is a
World Mine Production of Gold 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
In Kilograms (1 Kilogram = 32.1507 Troy Ounces)
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
247,196 256,188 253,504 289,530 314,500 310,070 301,070 296,410 285,030 273,010
69,894 72,397 64,424 60,011 58,488 49,567 52,634 50,393 53,207 50,500
152,929 146,428 152,032 166,378 171,479 165,599 157,617 156,207 158,875 148,860
33,638 38,786 44,585 53,174 49,459 44,980 48,069 54,143 42,673 40,000
130,000 132,000 140,000 145,000 175,000 178,000 173,000 180,000 185,000 190,000
Year
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
good conductor of heat and electricity. Gold melts at 1,064 degrees Celsius and boils at about 2,808 degrees Celsius. The prime industrial use of gold is in electronics. Another important sector is dental gold where it has been used for almost 3,000 years. Other applications for gold include decorative gold leaf, reflective glass, and jewelry. Gold futures and options are traded on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures are traded on the Bolsa de Mercadorias and Futuros (BM&F) and on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and he Korea Futures Exchange (KOFEX). The COMEX gold futures contract calls for the delivery of 100 troy ounces of gold (0.995 fineness), and the contract trades in terms of dollars and cents per troy ounce. Prices – Comex gold futures prices rallied early in 2003 on geopolitical concerns caused by the war with Iraq, but then fell back through early April. Gold prices in August then began a steady rally that took the contract to an 8year high of $417 in the last week of December. That was only mildly below the 14-year high of $425 posted in February 1990. The record high for cash gold prices was $675.75 posted in September 1980. Bullish factors for gold in the latter half of 2003 centered on the weak dollar and improved industrial demand with the rebounding global economy. The weak dollar was a key reason for gold’s strength, since the dollar depreciated not only against other world paper currencies but also against a store of wealth such as gold. Supply – World mine production of gold fell -1.9% in 2002 to 2.550 million kilograms (1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces) from 2.600 million in 2001. The world’s largest producers of gold are South Africa (with 16% of world production), followed by the US (12%), Australia (11%), China (7.5%), Russia (6.2%), and Canada (5.8%). US gold mine production in 2002 fell to 298,000 kilograms from 335,000 kilograms in 2001. US refinery production in 2002 was 196,000 kilograms for domestic and foreign ores and 78,100 kilograms from secondary (old scrap). Demand – US consumption of gold in 2002 fell to 163,000 kilograms from 179,000 kilograms in 2001. Trade – US exports of gold in 2002 (including coinage) fell sharply to 257,000 kilograms from 489,000 kilograms in 2001. US imports of gold for consumption in 2002 rose to 217,000 kilograms from 194,000 kilograms in 2001.
Ghana
IndoPapua nesia N. Guinea
38,911 42,097 43,478 42,600 53,087 64,031 49,211 83,564 54,662 86,927 72,541 124,018 79,946 127,184 72,100 124,596 68,700 166,091 69,707 135,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
61,671 59,286 53,405 51,119 45,418 61,641 65,747 74,540 67,043 65,200
Russia
South Africa
United States
Uzbekistan
World Total
149,500 146,600 132,170 123,300 124,000 114,900 125,870 143,000 152,500 158,000
619,201 580,201 523,809 496,846 491,680 465,100 451,300 430,800 394,800 399,234
331,000 327,000 317,000 326,000 362,000 366,000 341,000 353,000 335,000 298,000
70,000 65,000 65,000 72,000 81,700 80,000 85,000 85,000 87,000 90,000
2,280,000 2,250,000 2,230,000 2,290,000 2,450,000 2,500,000 2,570,000 2,590,000 2,600,000 2,550,000
111
GOLD
USD Per Troy Ounce ----- U.S. Gov’t Price Controls (1901 - 1933)($20.67) U.S. Gov’t Price Controls (1934 - 1939)($35.00) London Market Prices (Jan. 1940 - Feb. 1968) Handy & Harman, N.Y. (Mar. 1968 - May 1990) Composite (June 1990 - date)
Salient Statistics of Gold in the United States
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022
Mine Production
331,013 327,000 317,000 326,000 362,000 366,000 341,000 353,000 335,000 298,000
In Kilograms (1 Kilogram = 32.1507 Troy Ounces)
Refinery Production Exports Imports Domestic Secondary (Old (Excluding for ConValue & Foreign Scrap) Coinage) sumption Million $ Ores
3,840.0 4,050.0 3,950.0 4,090.0 3,870.0 3,480.0 3,070.0 3,180.0 2,940.0 2,980.0
243,000 241,000 NA NA 270,000 277,000 265,000 197,000 191,000 196,000
152,000 148,000 NA NA 100,000 163,000 143,000 81,600 82,700 78,100
792,680 471,000 347,000 471,000 476,000 522,000 523,000 547,000 489,000 257,000
169,305 114,000 126,000 159,000 209,000 278,000 221,000 223,000 194,000 217,000
---------- Stocks, Dec. 31 ----------------------- Consumption --------------Treasury Official DeparWorld Futures Jewelry tment3 Exchange Industry Reserves4 Dental Industrial5 & Arts Total
8,143,000 8,142,000 8,140,000 8,140,000 8,140,000 8,130,000 8,170,000 8,140,000 8,120,000 8,140,000
78,514 49,100 45,400 20,700 15,200 25,200 37,900 52,900 38,000 63,900
34,400 32,700 NA NA 17,300 16,600 14,700 9,300 3,700 3,500
34,900 6,173 34,800 5,430 34,600 NA 34,400 NA 34,000 NA 33,600 NA 33,500 NA 33,000 NA 33,000 NA 32,200 NA
19,663 65,600 17,013 53,700 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
91,400 76,100 NA NA 137,000 219,000 245,000 183,000 179,000 163,000
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 I ncludes gold in Exchange Stabilization Fund. 4 Held by market economy country central banks and governments andinternational monetary orgainzations. 5 I ncluding space and defense. NA = Not available. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Monthly Average Gold Price (Handy & Harman) in New York
In Dollars Per Troy Ounce
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
387.02 378.55 399.59 355.10 289.18 287.05 284.26 265.58 281.47 356.91
382.01 376.51 404.73 346.71 297.49 287.22 299.60 261.99 295.40 359.60
384.13 382.12 396.21 351.67 295.90 285.96 286.39 263.03 294.06 340.55
378.20 391.11 392.96 344.47 308.40 282.45 279.75 260.56 302.68 328.25
381.21 385.46 391.98 343.75 299.39 276.94 275.10 272.07 314.08 355.03
385.64 387.56 385.58 340.75 292.31 261.31 285.73 270.23 321.81 356.35
385.44 386.40 383.69 324.08 292.79 255.81 281.01 267.53 313.51 351.01
380.43 383.63 387.43 324.03 283.76 256.56 274.44 272.40 310.18 359.91
391.80 382.22 382.97 322.74 289.01 265.23 273.53 283.78 319.49 379.07
389.77 383.14 381.07 324.87 295.92 310.72 270.00 283.06 316.56 378.92
349.43 385.53 378.46 307.10 293.89 292.74 266.05 276.49 319.14 389.13
379.60 387.42 369.02 288.65 291.29 283.69 271.68 275.98 333.21
384.14 384.22 387.81 331.16 294.12 278.81 278.96 271.06 310.13 359.52
Preliminary.
112
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
GOLD
Average Open Interest of Gold in New York (NYMEX) Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
156,045 184,549 210,695 199,710 180,994 179,726 149,606 134,401 124,222 221,495
139,354 170,972 226,160 190,524 171,507 185,345 158,026 142,673 142,763 210,247
146,269 168,651 203,968 167,595 183,358 178,456 160,325 126,558 142,638 186,656
144,386 191,667 201,826 157,176 180,267 198,202 155,188 120,111 159,892 176,033
147,738 173,805 203,056 160,512 158,157 193,978 162,516 118,426 190,845 191,459
146,255 174,075 192,423 170,640 172,250 207,122 144,099 116,788 174,123 198,808
148,915 175,727 185,374 207,352 169,180 205,687 133,087 114,098 166,042 199,741
155,641 176,135 159,435 198,099 192,623 193,023 126,893 116,687 146,596 224,694
167,981 185,128 185,907 201,267 183,351 206,186 132,731 125,907 167,620 284,906
166,041 185,854 192,606 188,365 186,680 216,034 132,546 125,639 162,456 258,238
166,536 170,674 187,145 212,757 164,304 189,433 134,630 114,238 164,581 275,346
178,998 141,751 185,994 188,558 153,063 156,754 113,830 111,622 191,594 277,073
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
Volume of Trading of Gold Futures in New York (NYMEX) Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
981.8 881.9 1,384.7 1,102.8 1,078.2 860.8 616.4 755.2 733.6 1,260.1
584.0 420.0 987.5 830.2 534.2 517.4 833.5 483.3 613.2 1,007.5
889.5 1,087.5 943.6 899.4 877.2 1,147.6 767.7 766.6 717.7 987.6
589.2 613.0 647.1 508.5 698.1 561.1 362.2 438.1 559.8 667.8
922.6 777.0 858.5 762.1 845.2 1,069.6 701.5 971.6 1,089.6 1,160.3
740.2 588.1 582.1 522.7 718.7 573.6 625.5 481.4 775.5 824.3
723.8 669.9 749.8 1,147.5 712.4 964.3 532.5 578.3 998.9 1,191.7
626.0 500.5 541.9 667.8 680.0 709.6 374.4 547.4 585.8 837.5
645.6 495.5 541.9 715.8 851.7 1,067.3 403.2 341.0 621.8 1,034.0
651.2 387.7 528.5 988.0 769.6 993.8 424.9 481.4 669.0 1,091.3
687.8 982.5 795.2 808.8 705.6 674.7 625.7 573.6 844.8 1,397.3
461.5 378.1 458.8 588.1 519.0 436.1 349.0 367.4 808.5 776.3
8,503.2 7,781.6 8,694.5 9,541.9 8,990.1 9,575.8 6,643.5 6,785.3 9,018.2 12,235.5
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), COMEX division
113
GOLD C o mmo d ity E xch an g e, In c. (C OME X ) D ep o sito ry Wareh o u se S to cks o f Go ld
In Thousands of Troy Ounces
Year
Jan. 1
Feb. 1
Mar. 1
Apr. 1
May 1
June 1
July 1
Aug. 1
Sept. 1
Oct. 1
Nov. 1
Dec. 1
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1,507 2,524 1,577 1,460 666 488 809 1,219 1,701 1,220
1,340 2,955 1,498 1,869 837 446 809 1,393 1,775 1,187
1,365 2,958 1,386 1,412 583 481 860 1,374 1,654 1,286
1,426 2,862 1,360 1,429 1,000 720 1,034 1,968 1,302 1,322
1,383 2,802 1,391 1,335 946 658 896 1,967 858 1,372
2,231 2,434 1,488 1,711 878 1,077 879 1,901 864 1,764
2,247 2,665 1,505 1,263 850 1,055 818 1,890 891 1,851
2,448 2,574 1,608 1,273 914 1,092 936 2,013 901 1,836
2,437 2,030 1,448 1,402 733 911 1,198 1,961 794 1,915
2,425 1,904 1,745 1,283 894 958 928 1,918 824 1,892
2,349 1,843 1,395 1,060 615 827 874 1,865 1,165 1,995
2,552 1,867 1,315 1,104 761 819 1,137 1,864 1,426 2,046
S ource: New York Mercant ile E xchang e (NYME X), C OME X division
C en tral Go ld B an k R eserves
In Millions of Troy Ounces Bank for Int'l SettleIMF2 ments
-------------------------------------------------------- In d u strial C o u n tries -------------------------------------------------------Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 1
Germany
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 95.2 119.0 111.5 111.5 112.0
66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 83.4 78.8 78.8 79.0
24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.6 24.6
43.9 35.1 34.8 34.8 34.8 27.1 33.8 31.6 29.3 29.0
Belgi um Canada France
25.0 25.0 25.0 20.5 15.3 15.3 9.5 8.3 8.3 8.0
P reliminary.
2
9.9 81.9 6.1 81.9 3.9 81.9 3.4 81.9 3.1 81.9 3.1 81.9 2.5 102.4 1.8 97.2 1.2 97.3 1.2 97.0
I n t e r n a tio n a l M o n e t a r y F u n d .
Swi terUni ted land Ki ngdom
83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 78.8 74.6
18.6 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 23.0 20.6 16.5 13.4
Montana
Nevada
Alaska
Colorado
South Dakota
New Mexico
2,710 2,050 1,920 1,740 2,140 1,840 786 442 W W
35,800 30,100 25,600 23,800 24,200 18,700 17,500 17,200 13,800 9,180
4,324 3,610 8,850 7,410 7,490 W W W W W
14,300 12,600 12,400 9,110 10,200 8,200 7,540 9,310 W W
211,000 214,000 210,000 213,000 243,000 273,000 9,310 268,000 253,000 240,000
2,780 5,660 4,410 5,020 18,400 18,300 16,200 15,600 16,700 W
W 4,420 W W W W W W W W
19,200 W W W 16,400 12,100 10,300 8,230 W W
995 W W W W W W W W W
W = Withheld proprietary data, included in Other States.
------------------------ Jew elry an d th e Arts -----------------------Gold-Fi lled ElectroKarat & Other plati ng Gold Total
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 P reliminary.
114
9,256 7,598 7,364 8,132 3,848 3,546 3,530 3,650 NA NA
3,133 1,469 1,283 429 373 581 373 369 NA NA
100.3 108.1 106.6 111.9 115.5 115.8 115.7 112.9 112.0 111.3
103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4
6.8 8.6 7.0 7.3 6.6 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5
1,129.9 1,123.0 1,116.2 1,113.2 1,108.2 1,089.7 1,076.1 1,074.5 1,060.1 1,054.7
In Kilograms
Idaho
58,635 57,959 60,877 69,952 79,875 79,381 61,700 49,700 NA NA
71,024 67,027 69,524 78,514 84,096 83,508 65,600 53,700 NA NA
So urce: U.S. Geo lo g ica l Surv ey (USGS)
Other States
Total
W 39,891 W 33,560 W 53,820 W 57,920 W 40,170 W 33,860 W 279,364 W 34,218 W 51,500 W 48,820
331,000 306,000 317,000 318,000 362,000 366,000 341,000 353,000 335,000 298,000
Utah
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
C o n su mp tio n o f Go ld , B y E n d -U se in th e U n ited S tates
1
42.0 42.4 42.4 41.9 42.5 42.3 41.6 41.2 41.6 42.3
California
Preliminary.
Year
877.4 860.4 856.9 848.7 840.1 821.9 809.0 810.4 796.5 791.3
Arizona
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
261.8 261.8 261.7 261.7 261.7 261.6 261.6 261.7 261.6 261.6
World Total
S ource: American Met al Market (AMM)
Mine Production of Recoverable Gold in the United States Year
DeveUni ted Industri al Deve- lopi ng States Total lopi ng Oi l Non-Oi l
Dental
6,944 7,576 7,927 8,700 8,485 6,543 6,170 5,430 NA NA
In Kilograms --------------------------------- In d u strial --------------------------------Gold-Fi lled ElectroKarat & Other plati ng Gold Total
21,010 21,034 15,723 12,725 8,102 8,802 9,470 7,450 NA NA
12,343 15,088 20,684 17,251 12,624 10,476 9,090 9,470 NA NA
1,892 1,104 1,215 1,020 1,068 1,082 1,100 96 NA NA
35,245 37,226 37,621 30,996 21,793 20,360 19,700 17,000 NA NA
Grand Total
113,319 111,836 115,078 118,216 114,375 110,410 91,400 76,100 NA NA
GOLD
115
Grain Sorghum duction), Nigeria with 7.850 million metric tons (15%), India with 7.060 million (14%), and Mexico with 6.338 million (12%). US production in 2003/4 was forecast at 10.446 million metric tons, up 11% from 9.392 million in 2002/3. US ending stocks in 2003/4 are forecasted to rise to 1.378 million metric tons from 1.093 million in 2002/3. Demand – World consumption of grain sorghum was forecast to rise slightly by 0.4% to 53.147 million metric tons in 2003/4 from 52.949 million in 2002/3. Forecasted consumption of 53.147 million metric tons in 2003/4 will be slightly below forecasted production of 53.730 million in 2003/4, a slightly bullish factor for prices. In 2002/3, consumption of 52.949 million was well above production of 51.403 million, a bearish factor for prices. The world’s main consumers of sorghum are Mexico, Nigeria, and India. Trade – World trade in grain sorghum was forecast to rise to 6.205 million metric tons in 2003/4 from 5.849 million in 2002/3. The world’s main exporter by far is the US. US exports are forecasted to rise to 5.200 million metric tons from 4.911 million in 2002/3, accounting for 84% of world exports. The U.S. generally consumes only about half its production and exports the balance. The world’s two main importers are Mexico and Japan.
Grain sorghums include milo, kafir, durra, feterita, and kaoliang. Grain sorghums are tolerant of drought by going into dormancy during dry and hot conditions and then resuming growth as conditions improve. Grain sorghums are a staple food in China, India, and Africa but in the US they are mainly used as livestock feed. The two key US producing states are Texas and Kansas, each with about one-third of total US production. US sorghum production has become more popular with the breeding of dwarf grain sorghum hybrids which are only about 3 feet tall (versus up to 10 feet tall for wild sorghum) and are easier to harvest with a combine. The U.S. sorghum crop year begins September 1. Prices – Grain sorghum prices (No. 2 yellow in Kansas City) in 2003 were on track to average above $4 per hundred pounds, the highest level since 1997/8 when prices averaged $4.18. Supply – World production of sorghum in 2003/4 was forecast to rise to 53.730 million metric tons, up 4.5% from 51.403 million in 2002/3. World ending stocks in 2003/4 are forecasted at 3.864 million metric tons, up 18% from 3.281 million in 2002/3. The world’s largest producers of grain sorghum in 2002/3 were the US with 9.392 million metric tons of production (accounting for 18% of world pro-
World Supply and Demand Grain Sorghum Year
------------------ Exports ------------------ ------------------ Imports -----------------ArgenNonUnactina U.S. U.S. Total Japan Mexico counted Total
1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
565 920 439 419 600 500
Preliminary.
2
1,467 1,660 1,607 1,090 1,134 1,021
Estimate.
4,996 6,463 6,484 8,144 6,009 7,616 6,142 7,232 4,715 5,849 5,334 6,355 3
Forecast.
2,453 2,206 1,983 1,776 1,562 1,500
3,291 4,890 5,037 4,837 3,394 3,100
71 54 120 281 24 235
6,463 8,144 7,616 7,232 5,849 6,355
Total ----------------- Utiliz ation ----------------- ------ Ending Stocks -----ProNonduction China Mexico U.S. Total U.S. U.S. Total
59,905 4,134 59,044 3,319 52,818 2,561 57,660 2,700 52,027 2,700 54,720 2,500
9,746 11,200 11,200 10,750 9,900 8,800
7,798 8,628 6,543 6,440 5,134 4,827
59,046 60,364 54,165 56,325 53,638 54,022
3,773 3,225 2,478 3,325 2,170 2,583
1,655 1,661 1,061 1,549 1,093 1,378
5,428 4,886 3,539 4,874 3,263 3,961
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Grain Sorghum in the United States
Year
Acreage ------------------------------- For Grain ------------------------------- ------------- For Silage ------------- --------------- Sorghum Grain Stocks --------------Planted4 ProValue Acreage Pro- Yield Per ---------- Dec. 1 ---------- --------- June 1 --------for All Acreage of Pro- Harvested duction Yield Per Price in duction Harvested O n Farms Off Farms On Farms Off Farms Purposes Harvested 1,000 Harvested 1,000 Acre Cents Per duction 1,000 ----- 1,000 Acres ----Acre -------------------- 1,000 Bushels ---------------------Acres Tons Bushel Million $ Bushels Bushels
1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32 2003-43 1
9,626 9,288 9,195 10,252 9,580 9,420
Preliminary.
2
7,723 8,544 7,723 8,584 7,299 7,798
Estimate.
3
519,933 595,166 470,070 514,524 369,758 411,237
Forecast.
67.3 166 69.7 157 60.9 189 59.9 194 50.7 232 51.0 220-250 NA = Not available.
905.5 937.4 847.1 979.8 876.5 965.8
308 320 265 336 352 343
3,526 3,716 2,863 3,728 3,360 3,552
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Arkansas
Colorado
Illinois
6,890 9,750 9,940 14,620 17,710 17,220
10,545 8,610 6,720 9,460 1,800 4,320
7,918 9,215 8,075 8,085 6,391 8,610
Preliminary.
116
Kansas Louisiana
264,000 258,400 188,800 232,500 135,000 130,500
7,500 19,270 17,845 17,850 13,365 14,025
95,900 90,300 74,300 72,400 53,600 45,200
239,416 259,136 187,681 241,477 178,252 188,507
27,400 27,300 19,000 17,300 11,150
88,680 99,606 57,411 88,178 70,744
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of All Sorghum for Grain in the United States, by States Year
11.4 11.6 10.8 11.1 9.5 10.4
In Thousands of Bushels
Missi ssi p p i
Missouri Nebraska
New Mexico Oklahoma
2,340 4,872 6,708 7,134 6,237 6,132
26,560 22,010 24,840 20,680 15,725 16,170
2,925 7,425 1,625 6,300 2,800 1,674
56,400 42,770 35,000 35,700 15,000 31,000
15,300 18,000 13,680 15,120 14,850 9,250
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
South Dakota
Texas
Total
9,940 4,640 5,880 8,850 3,060 6,750
105,800 185,850 143,350 130,000 130,050 153,900
519,933 595,166 470,070 514,524 369,758 411,237
GRAIN SORGHUM Grain Sorghum Quarterly Supply and Disappearance in the United States
In Millions of Bushels
----------------------------------- Disappearance ---------------------------------------------------- Domestic Use -------------------
Crop Year Beginning Sept. 1
F ood ------------------------- Supply ------------------------Beginning ProTotal Alcohol & Stocks duction Imports Supply Industrial
2000-1 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2001-2 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2002-31 Sept.-Nov. Dec.-Feb. Mar.-May June-Aug. 2003-42 Sept.-Nov.
65.0 65.0 262.0 167.0 76.0 42.0 42.0 314.0 194.0 105.0 61.0 61.0 232.0 163.0 82.0 43.0 43.0
471.0 471.0 ---------515.0 515.0 ---------370.0 370.0 ---------411.0 411.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
536.0 536.0 262.0 167.0 767.0 556.0 556.0 314.0 194.0 105.0 431.0 431.0 232.0 163.0 82.0 454.0 454.0
1
Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 Uncommitted inventory. Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
35.0 17.0 11.0 4.0 3.0 45.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 45.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 25.0 7.0 4
S eed
F eed & Residual
Total
Export
220.0 194.0 15.0 23.0 -10.0 208.0 164.0 26.0 26.0 -8.0 158.0 133.0 7.0 31.0 -13.0 165.0 154.0
494.0 274.0 95.0 91.0 35.0 495.0 242.0 120.0 89.0 45.0 388.0 199.0 69.0 81.0 39.0 400.0 221.0
237.0 63.0 69.0 63.0 42.0 242.0 63.0 78.0 53.0 47.0 186.0 51.0 47.0 40.0 48.0 210.0 60.0
1.0 0 0 1.0 0 0 0
----------- Ending Stocks ----------Gov't Privately Total Total Owned3 Owned4 Stocks
731.0 337.0 164.0 154.0 77.0 737.0 305.0 198.0 142.0 92.0 574.0 250.0 116.0 121.0 87.0 610.0 281.0 Source: Economic Research
I ncludes quantity under loan & farmer-owned reserve.
Average Price of Sorghum Grain, No. 2, Yellow in Kansas City
42.0 262.0 167.0 76.0 42.0 61.0 314.0 194.0 105.0 61.0 43.0 232.0 163.0 82.0 43.0 54.0 234.0
In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds (Cwt.)
Year
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Average
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41
5.29 4.13 2.98 2.97 2.67 3.55 4.86 4.15
4.64 4.36 3.17 2.71 3.14 3.38 4.70 4.18
4.31 4.30 3.45 2.75 3.41 3.44 4.72 4.50
4.22 4.26 3.41 2.87 3.66 3.59 4.62
4.24 4.33 3.41 3.20 3.64 3.61 4.52
4.46 4.36 3.43 3.28 3.63 3.55 4.43
4.88 4.40 3.48 3.51 3.56 3.58 4.07
4.83 4.10 3.37 3.53 3.45 3.47 4.24
4.63 4.09 3.35 3.75 3.30 3.44 4.12
4.48 4.03 3.32 3.18 3.26 3.57 4.06
4.48 4.03 2.92 2.71 3.59 3.97 3.71
4.18 3.74 2.92 2.76 3.65 4.60 4.00
4.55 4.18 3.30 3.10 3.41 3.65 4.34 4.28
1
Preliminary.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Exports of Grain Sorghum, by Country of Destination from the United States Year Beginning Oct. 1
Canada
Ecuador
1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32
3,347 5,076 3,484 4,061 4,170 4,912 5,921
0 0 0 0 0 0 91
1
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
Israel
Ja p a n
Jordan
Mexico
South Africa
Spain
10,020 456,271 49,999 82,583 0 92,335 21,940 167,816 24,117 82,776 0 25,082 48,000 65,725
2,207,304 1,451,123 1,480,220 1,045,253 853,211 1,233,799 1,059,424
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2,091,131 3,287,628 3,290,663 4,773,760 4,864,414 4,695,814 3,160,313
0 0 0 12,857 0 37,272 43,918
125,827 203,896 196,110 178,829 0 8,193 266,892
Ethiopia
In Metric Tons Turkey
World Total
8,000 138,590 0 94 0 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,880 0
5,210,569 5,164,844 5,194,028 6,297,344 5,866,340 6,014,304 4,724,964
Sudan
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Grain Sorghum Price Support Program and Market Prices in the United States
Year
1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22
------------------------------------ Price Support Operations -----------------------------------B a si c Findley Owned by ---- Price Support ---% of ProAquired Loan Target Loan C C C at Quantity duction by CCC Year End Rate Price Rate ----------------------- Million Cw t. ---------------------- ------------- $ Per Bushel -------------
4.0 11.4 9.8 12.0 9.6 8.6
1.6 2.6 2.8 4.1 2.9 3.3
1.84 5
.1 .6 .5 .4
.1 .2
5 5 5 5
2.61 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1.80 1.81 1.76 1.74 1.74 1.71 1.71
Effective Partici- ------------ No. 2 Yellow ($ Per Cw t.) -----------Texas B a se 3 pation High Los Gulf Kansas Rate4 Million Plains Angeles Ports City Acres % of Base
13.3 13.2 13.1 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.6
76.9 98.8 98.8 98.8 98.8
6.66 4.55 4.11 3.29 3.10 3.41
7.30 5.02 4.72 3.78 3.36 3.87 3.90
----------------------
7.19 5.03 4.76 3.97 3.79 4.35 4.23
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 National effective crop acreage base as determined by ASCS. 4 Percentage of effective base acres enrolled in acreage 5 reduction programs. Beginning with the 1996-7 marketing year, target prices are no longer applicable. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
117
Hay Hay is a catchall term for forage plants, typically grasses such as timothy and Sudan-grass, and legumes such as alfalfa and clover. Hay is generally used to make cured feed for livestock. Curing, which is the proper drying of hay, is necessary to prevent spoilage. Hay, when properly cured, contains about 20% moisture. If hay is dried excessively, however, there is a loss of protein, which makes it less effective as livestock feed. Hay is harvested in virtually all of the lower 48 states, but the top producing states are Texas (with 9% of US production), California (6%), Missouri (5%), and Minnesota (4%). Prices – Hay prices as of December 2003 were $81.30 per ton, down from the $94.00 average price seen in 2002/3
and from $96.50 seen in 2001/2. Supply – US hay production in 2003/4 was forecast at 160.7 million tons, up from 151.0 million tons in 2002/3 and 156.8 million in 2001/2. That production is well above the annual production average of 151 million tons seen in the 1990’s. Higher production in 2003/4 is expected due to a rise in yields to 2.50 tons per acre versus the previous year’s 2.34 tons. Acres harvested in 2003/4 is actually expected to decline to 64.379 million acres from 64.497 million in 2002/ 3. However, that is still significantly above the average 60.6 million acres harvested in the 1990’s. Carry-over in 2002/3 was slightly higher at 22.5 million tons, up from 21.1 million tons in 2001/2.
Salient Statistics of All Hay in the United States Crop Year Beginning May 1
Acres Harvested 1,000 Acres
1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32
61,084 60,076 63,220 59,854 63,521 64,497
D i sa p Yield Supply pearance Pro- Carryover D i sa p P er Per Animal Unit May 1 pearance Acre duction Tons ---------- Millions of Tons ---------- -------- In Tons --------
2.50 2.53 2.53 2.54 2.47 2.34
152.5 151.8 159.7 151.9 156.8 151.0
17.4 21.8 24.8 28.8 21.1 22.5
148.1 148.8 155.7 159.6 159.6
2.27 2.33 2.52 2.49 2.46 2.40
1.98 2.00 2.12 2.20 2.15 NA
1 Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Roughage-consuming animal units fed annually. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production of All Hay in the United States, by States California
Idaho
8,554 8,782 8,568 8,915 9,594 9,310
5,549 5,132 5,292 4,938 5,608 4,950
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
Iowa
Minnesota
5,332 5,970 6,000 5,565 5,645 5,515
7,110 7,130 6,840 6,195 6,610 5,245
Retail Price Paid by Farmers -------------- for Seed, April 15 -------------Farm Farm ProAlfalfa Red Sudanduction Price Clover Grass Value (Certified) Timothy $ P er Ton Million $ --------------- Dollars Per Cw t. ---------------
Animal Units F ed3 Millions
74.9 74.5 73.3 72.5 72.0
100.0 85.0 76.7 85.4 96.5 93.8
13,250 11,607 11,014 11,417 12,597 12,450
NA = Not available.
282.00 73.00 288.00 71.20 287.00 78.80 277.00 115.00 278.00 105.00 157.00 90.00
184.00 194.00 178.00 143.00 132.00 130.00
51.40 53.70 52.20 53.00 53.00 56.00
Source: Economic Research Service,
In Thousands of Tons
Missouri
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Total
7,703 7,225 6,657 7,853 7,840 8,168
7,680 7,700 6,055 7,578 5,950 7,600
4,190 5,511 5,110 5,065 3,920 4,598
3,875 3,060 4,521 4,275 3,750 3,974
3,380 5,000 4,659 4,025 5,030 4,992
8,160 9,440 7,393 9,150 4,800 7,210
6,870 13,135 8,880 10,837 13,850 12,388
6,370 7,510 6,000 4,790 5,340 4,380
151,780 159,707 151,921 156,764 150,962 157,123
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Hay Production and Farm Stocks in the United States
In Thousands of Short Tons
------------------------------------------------------------ Production ---------------------------------------------------------------------Year
Alfalfa & Mixtures
All Others
All Hay
Corn for Silage1
Sorghum Silage1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032
82,310 84,385 80,347 80,327 73,824 76,307
69,470 75,322 71,574 76,437 77,138 80,816
151,780 159,707 151,921 156,764 150,962 157,123
95,479 95,633 102,156 102,077 104,979 105,864
3,526 3,716 2,773 3,728 3,360 3,552
1
Not included in all tame hay.
2
Preliminary.
1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-41 1
Preliminary.
118
May 1
D e c. 1
21,827 24,817 28,817 21,106 22,494 22,168
112,066 108,922 105,582 110,510 103,692 110,752
Source: Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ASB-USDA)
Mid-Month Price Received by Farmers for All Hay (Baled) in the United States Year
----------------- Farm Stocks -----------------
In Dollars Per Ton
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
Average2
103.0 91.6 91.0 106.0 103.0 99.2
91.8 81.7 82.5 95.8 95.8 94.6
88.6 78.4 80.2 96.3 93.6 89.0
88.5 77.4 80.5 97.4 92.4 85.3
86.5 74.5 83.0 99.0 93.0 84.2
85.2 73.7 84.9 98.0 93.8 84.4
81.4 74.0 84.0 95.9 93.2 80.7
77.5 71.1 84.9 95.6 91.1 81.3
78.5 71.8 85.2 91.7 91.4 79.3
79.0 72.6 86.8 91.7 91.4 79.9
78.5 74.8 87.2 92.3 92.8
81.9 78.2 94.8 98.3 94.5
85.0 76.7 85.4 96.5 93.8 85.8
2
Marketing year average.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Heating Oil Heating oil is a petroleum product. Heating oil is also known as No. 2 fuel oil and accounts for about 25% of the yield from a barrel of crude oil. That is the second largest “cut” after gasoline. The price to consumers of home heating oil is generally comprised of 42% for crude oil, 12% for refining costs, and 46% for marketing and distribution costs (source: EIA’s Petroleum Marketing Monthly, 2001). Generally, a $1 increase in the price of crude oil translates into a 2.5-cent per gallon rise in heating oil. Because of this, heating oil prices are highly correlated with crude oil prices, although heating oil prices are also subject to swift supply and demand shifts due to weather or refinery shutdowns. The primary use for heating oil is residential space heating. In the US, approximately 8.1 million households use heating oil as their main heating fuel. Most of the demand for heating oil occurs from October through March. The Northeast region, which includes the New England and the Central Atlantic States, is most reliant on heating oil. This region consumes approximately 70% of US heating oil. However, demand for heating oil has been dropping as households switch to a more convenient heating source like natural gas. In fact, demand for heating oil is down by about 10 billion gallons/year from its peak use in 1976 (source: American Petroleum Institute). The US has two suppliers of heating oil, domestic refineries and imports from foreign countries. Refineries produce approximately 85 % of US heating oil as part of the “distillate fuel oil” product family, which includes heating oils and diesel fuel. The remainder of US heating oil is imported from Canada, the Virgin Islands, and Venezuela. Recently, a team of Purdue University researchers developed a way to make home heating oil from a mixture of soybean oil and conventional fuel oil. The oil blend is made by replacing 20% of the fuel oil with soybean oil, potentially saving 1.3 billion gallons of fuel oil per year. This soybean heating oil can be used in conventional furnaces without altering existing equipment. The soybean heating oil is relatively easy to produce and creates no sulfur emissions. The “crack-spread” is the processing margin earned when refiners buy crude oil and refine it into heating oil and gasoline. The crack-spread ratio commonly used in the industry is the 3-2-1, which involves buying 1 heating oil contract and 2 gasoline futures contracts, and then selling
Average Price of #2 Heating Oil Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
3 crude oil contracts. As long as the crack spread is positive, it is profitable for refiners to buy crude oil and refine it into products. The NYMEX has a crack-spread calculator on their web site at www.nymex.com. Heating oil futures and options trade at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The heating oil futures contract calls for the delivery of 1,000 barrels of fungible No. 2 heating oil in the New York harbor. In London, gas/ oil futures and options are traded on the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Prices – NYMEX heating oil futures prices on the nearest-futures chart posted a record high (going back to the 1982 start of the NYMEX futures contract) of $1.31in February 2003 in conjunction with the Iraq war, but then quickly fell back as it became clear that the Iraq war would be short and would not create major oil supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and Middle East. Heating oil prices then entered a sustained rally in Q3-2003 and closed the year at 91 cents, little changed from the 2002 close of 92 cents. Still, heating oil prices closed 2003 at the upper end of the price range seen over the last 20 years. Bullish factors were basically the same as for crude oil (weak dollar, higher global economic growth, tight inventories) but were also boosted by a cold start to winter which boosted demand for heating oil in the northeastern US which is the primary consumer of heating oil for home heating. Supply – Production of distillate fuel oil in the US in 2003 averaged 3.7 million barrels per day, up 3.0% from 3.592 million in 2002. Stocks of distillate fuel oil in October 2003, the latest reporting month, were 130.9 million barrels, up from 124.4 million barrels in December 2002. US production of residual fuel in 2003 rose to an average 657,000 barrels per day, up 9.2% from 601,000 in 2002. US stocks of residual fuel oil in July 2003 rose to 35.6 million barrels from 32.7 million a year earlier. Demand – US usage of distillate fuel oil in the US in 2003 averaged 3.944 million barrels per day, up 4.4% from 3.776 million in 2002. Trade – US imports of distillate fuel oil in 2003 rose to an average 337,000 barrels per day, up 26% from 267,000 in 2002. US exports of distillate fuel oil in 2003 fell slightly to 109,000 per day from 112,000 in 2002.
In Cents Per Gallon
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
49.93 47.98 55.64 69.90 46.59 33.41 91.32 84.30 53.52 90.09
55.81 47.64 61.24 61.15 44.26 30.48 94.37 78.55 54.03 112.84
49.18 45.95 65.19 54.83 42.12 38.74 77.29 74.17 63.52 99.70
48.01 49.40 67.90 57.74 42.97 43.07 75.32 78.02 66.60 79.75
47.98 50.31 57.59 56.31 41.07 41.68 75.88 77.11 66.54 74.31
49.37 47.75 51.56 52.32 37.88 43.36 78.32 75.74 64.50 75.95
49.93 46.65 55.58 53.11 36.24 50.02 78.14 69.88 67.79 79.03
49.51 49.14 60.42 54.02 34.48 54.81 89.13 73.41 69.81 81.61
47.90 50.21 67.61 53.19 40.15 60.27 98.87 71.65 77.25 73.54
48.23 48.89 72.34 57.24 38.29 58.34 97.46 62.63 76.55 81.97
49.62 51.89 70.13 56.23 35.59 64.89 102.70 54.37 72.14 83.35
48.41 57.76 72.13 51.09 31.38 67.36 94.08 52.60 81.70 89.04
49.49 49.46 63.11 56.43 39.25 48.87 87.74 71.04 67.83 85.10
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
119
HEATING OIL
Average Open Interest of #2 Heating Oil Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
196,390 128,664 114,324 100,333 171,177 167,686 135,431 138,980 166,824 178,932
185,607 112,508 95,745 105,223 163,114 160,388 132,407 127,219 173,110 174,224
186,539 118,700 90,080 122,149 177,158 166,472 108,646 120,899 160,205 134,616
164,417 121,974 94,161 139,981 174,587 172,127 100,389 127,395 144,936 111,706
140,658 115,501 98,038 135,523 176,663 170,842 117,055 130,328 139,979 118,822
129,005 122,163 97,699 141,864 196,903 168,307 129,872 141,436 136,201 124,675
124,764 136,722 109,524 151,403 205,071 182,383 153,914 149,577 131,742 127,273
149,571 140,214 119,366 149,243 198,527 188,726 169,092 145,605 141,084 146,821
172,071 149,934 138,513 151,407 188,096 192,883 177,997 145,692 147,692 150,893
165,475 152,244 141,217 141,008 188,019 179,040 168,388 155,540 153,739 156,142
152,570 139,232 127,512 126,528 192,835 165,334 155,475 162,392 161,137 145,857
148,298 138,596 108,558 145,153 184,100 146,997 142,145 153,850 156,268 146,085
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
Volume of Trading of #2 Heating Oil Futures in New York Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,085.7 779.8 977.2 794.4 793.6 738.9 914.0 914.4 998.5 1,340.1
875.7 608.7 768.1 719.0 641.8 662.3 770.3 650.7 810.8 1,158.9
766.8 716.0 666.2 588.6 776.4 973.3 645.2 758.0 885.5 965.9
631.7 622.8 586.5 710.1 578.4 706.3 556.1 728.6 844.1 757.7
629.3 729.8 530.9 592.0 688.5 768.1 673.3 722.8 789.8 811.6
723.7 618.8 402.0 679.4 904.9 802.7 705.9 849.9 720.1 802.9
612.3 612.7 530.2 679.6 720.2 770.4 663.0 712.9 798.8 849.9
783.2 563.6 624.4 694.7 683.0 707.9 1,004.4 745.8 866.0 891.3
706.8 714.2 766.5 828.3 748.2 720.1 954.9 694.0 794.4 1,118.5
721.4 650.8 1,014.2 742.7 768.2 819.6 878.1 853.8 1,017.9 1,095.5
652.3 659.5 725.0 619.3 766.5 818.6 939.0 835.5 1,039.5 817.3
798.1 990.1 750.7 722.9 793.9 712.7 927.3 798.1 1,129.9 971.8
8,986.8 8,266.8 8,341.9 8,371.0 8,863.8 9,200.7 9,631.4 9,264.5 10,695.2 11,581.7
Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
120
In Thousand of Contracts
Jan.
HEATING OIL
USD Per Gallon ----- No. 2, New York Harbor
Stocks of Distillate and Residual Fuel in the United States, on First of Month
In Millions of Barrels Residual Fuel ----- Oil Stocks -----
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Jan. 1
July 1
140.9 145.2 130.2 126.7 139.0 156.2 124.1 118.0 144.5 134.1
117.5 140.2 113.8 111.3 133.1 147.9 106.7 118.2 137.8 112.2
102.9 122.1 97.3 105.9 127.9 142.3 105.2 117.0 130.0 97.2
99.4 115.4 89.7 101.8 124.4 125.7 96.0 105.0 123.0 98.5
102.6 114.6 90.1 97.5 125.7 125.3 100.1 104.9 122.6 97.1
112.4 118.3 95.7 108.4 136.8 134.8 105.4 107.1 127.4 106.1
119.5 114.7 101.6 118.2 139.1 133.2 106.4 113.9 130.9 111.8
134.2 125.0 106.8 123.0 148.8 138.1 112.9 125.2 133.4 117.7
138.6 130.9 110.3 132.9 150.5 142.0 111.0 122.0 130.6 126.4
144.7 131.7 115.0 138.9 152.5 145.2 115.3 127.0 126.9 130.9
146.0 131.4 114.7 136.2 147.5 137.6 116.5 128.9 121.4 131.4
147.3 135.4 121.8 140.5 154.6 140.6 121.1 138.9 124.4 137.2
44.2 41.9 36.8 45.9 40.4 44.9 35.8 36.2 41.0 31.3
39.4 36.0 34.8 39.2 39.8 42.5 37.0 41.7 32.7 35.6
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration; U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production of Distillate Fuel Oil in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3,114 3,054 3,110 3,119 3,323 3,176 3,123 3,609 3,508 3,403
3,018 2,954 3,145 3,089 3,280 3,253 3,348 3,612 3,498 3,455
3,096 3,157 3,110 3,258 3,397 3,183 3,342 3,483 3,360 3,743
3,249 3,126 3,305 3,291 3,468 3,407 3,533 3,650 3,647 3,817
3,317 3,111 3,258 3,525 3,560 3,458 3,650 3,652 3,709 3,860
3,285 3,109 3,291 3,517 3,520 3,374 3,481 3,702 3,679 3,728
3,191 3,056 3,139 3,362 3,569 3,521 3,520 3,837 3,561 3,673
3,187 3,145 3,295 3,427 3,482 3,419 3,678 3,654 3,538 3,750
3,285 3,287 3,403 3,452 3,399 3,482 3,844 3,625 3,536 3,721
3,203 3,169 3,626 3,488 3,215 3,506 3,774 3,796 3,380 3,750
3,270 3,341 3,665 3,543 3,438 3,608 3,785 3,968 3,768 3,800
3,232 3,344 3,558 3,578 3,431 3,401 3,872 3,744 3,922 3,845
3,205 3,155 3,325 3,389 3,424 3,399 3,580 3,695 3,592 3,712
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
121
HEATING OIL Imports of Distillate Fuel Oil in the United States
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
243 293 195 304 218 789 298 324
271 246 213 322 510 635 248 498
253 245 237 248 260 348 234 460
258 256 209 213 234 288 219 246
215 220 185 261 316 310 193 287
185 219 202 238 258 302 204 337
194 223 229 234 199 209 188 299
195 202 181 273 234 212 205 375
187 210 203 249 283 317 196 352
246 213 239 216 259 253 350 293
192 161 179 265 332 244 373 256
253 232 245 188 447 241 496 305
224 227 210 250 295 344 267 336
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Exports of Distillate Fuel Oil in the United States
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
216 133 131 117 132 67 109 119
256 107 120 116 112 77 279 132
139 120 135 159 211 75 67 161
166 166 168 191 178 107 68 139
176 153 227 187 127 146 74 162
81 174 152 180 149 120 93 101
134 151 124 123 132 113 44 103
182 185 105 130 253 140 119 68
256 160 133 162 194 152 127 43
300 133 139 192 255 99 96 62
171 149 110 170 191 132 114 81
206 192 108 212 135 202 171 100
190 152 138 162 173 119 112 106
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Disposition of Distillate Fuel Oil, Total Product Supplied in the U.S. Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousand Barrels per Day
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3,681 3,780 3,566 3,788 3,818 4,325 3,940 4,325
3,722 3,422 3,598 3,542 3,794 4,212 3,714 4,359
3,453 3,515 3,606 3,785 3,693 4,143 3,750 4,000
3,385 3,523 3,465 3,415 3,455 3,834 3,821 3,972
3,118 3,240 3,268 3,314 3,681 3,746 3,679 3,692
3,194 3,235 3,574 3,407 3,549 3,659 3,587 3,775
3,046 3,279 3,294 3,479 3,369 3,569 3,683 3,678
3,184 3,124 3,446 3,437 3,726 3,829 3,728 3,778
3,178 3,302 3,377 3,431 3,786 3,624 3,730 3,878
3,575 3,659 3,547 3,749 3,712 3,888 3,808 3,966
3,460 3,411 3,320 3,608 3,829 3,746 3,929 3,782
3,434 3,665 3,484 3,892 4,250 3,604 3,934 4,064
3,368 3,430 3,461 3,572 3,722 3,847 3,776 3,939
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Production of Residual Fuel Oil in the United States
In Thousands Barrels per Day
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
774 800 765 775 640 809 625 660
776 789 672 726 627 743 613 682
701 639 790 683 649 750 617 653
671 617 857 679 620 817 601 634
732 618 766 725 640 786 582 731
731 727 739 706 679 783 540 668
646 645 778 736 741 639 566 634
732 643 782 701 760 622 583 663
713 688 749 702 702 653 607 662
693 711 676 658 747 710 593 661
712 786 753 596 778 685 648 616
753 810 805 690 768 655 641 686
719 705 762 698 696 721 601 663
1
Preliminary.
Source: Energy I nformation Administration U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
Supply and Disposition of Residual Fuel Oil in the United States
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
----------------------- Supply ----------------------- ----------------------------------- Disposition ----------------------------------Total Stock Product Production Imports Change Exports Supplied ------------------------------------------------------ Thousand Barrels Per Day ------------------------------------------------------
726 708 762 698 696 721 601 663
248 194 275 237 352 295 249 325
24 -15 12 -25 1 13 -27 18
102 120 138 129 139 191 177 197
Preliminary. 2 Less than +500 barrels per day and greater than -500 barrels per day. Source: Energy I nformation Administration, U.S. Department of Energy (EI A-DOE)
122
3
848 797 887 830 909 811 700 772 Refiner price excluding taxes.
Ending Stocks Million Barrels
Average Sales to End Users3 Cents per Gallon
46 40 45 36 36 41 31 38
45.5 42.3 30.5 37.4 60.2 53.1 56.8
Hides and Leather Hides and leather have been used since ancient times for boots, clothing, shields, armor, tents, bottles, buckets, and cups. Leather is produced through the tanning of hides, pelts, and skins of animals. Dating back at least 7,000 years, remains of leather have been found in the Middle East. The leather-tanning craft can be traced back for almost 500,000 years. Today, most leather is made of cowhide but it is also made from the hides of lamb, deer, ostrich, and even stingray. Cattle hides are the most valuable byproduct of the meat packing industry. US exports of cowhides bring more than $1 billion in foreign trade, and US finished leather production is worth about $4 billion. Prices – The price of wholesale cattle hides (packer heavy native steers FOB Chicago) in 2003 rose +2.3% to 84.00 cents per pound from 82.13 cents in 2002, slightly above the 10-year average price of 83.12 cents per pound. Supply – World production of bovine hides and skins in 2000, the last reporting year, rose slightly by +0.2% to 4.139 million metric tons from the previous year. The world’s largest producers of bovine hides and skins is the US with 24% of world production in 2000, Brazil with 16% and Argentina with 7%. US new supply of cattle hides from domestic slaughter in 2001 fell –2.9% to 35.370 million hides from 36.416 million in 2000.
World Production of Cattle and Buffalo Hides Year
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
351 357 356 347 388 384 338 364 369 369
215 212 207 207 198 211 230 230 230 230
420 461 448 475 496 515 637 667 670 670
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 20012 1
Preliminary.
2
Forecast.
Canada Colombia
82 76 77 79 88 91 94 99 98 98
80 81 77 81 84 81 81 86 84 84
US production of leather footwear has been dropping off sharply in recent years due to the movement of production offshore to lower cost producers. US production of leather footwear in 2002 fell to 41.2 million pairs from 55.6 million in 2001 and was only about one-fourth of the production level seen 10 years earlier. Demand – World consumption of cowhides and skins in 2000, the last reporting year for the data series, rose +1.4% to 4,774 metric tons, which was the highest level seen in the data series which goes back to 1983. The world’s largest consumers of cowhides and skins are the US with 13.0% of world consumption in 2000, Italy (10.6%), Brazil (8.9%), Mexico, (6.0%), Argentina (6.0%), and South Korea (5.9%). Trade – US net exports of cattle hides in 2001 rose +10.6% to a 12- year high of 21.750 million hides from 19.670 million in 2000. The total value of US leather exports rose to a record high $1.221 billion in 2001. The largest destinations for US exports are South Korea (which took 28.0% of US exports in 2000), Taiwan (10.8%), Mexico (6.2%), and Italy (5.3%). World imports of cowhides and skins in 2000 rose to a record high of 2,058 metric tons from 2,002 metric tons in 1999. The world’s largest importers of cowhides and skins are South Korea (with 12.6% of world imports in 2000), Italy (10.7%) and Taiwan (6.9%).
In Thousands of Metric Tons France
Germany
Italy
Mexico
Russia
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
177 162 160 159 164 163 154 151 150 150
198 198 190 176 176 176 161 160 160 160
154 150 149 150 150 148 142 145 143 145
160 161 165 170 160 161 170 170 175 176
320 315 376 376 357 294 275 229 233 232
94 96 96 107 67 67 67 64 68 61
938 921 974 1,011 1,065 1,174 1,070 1,099 1,120 1,120
6,799 6,835 7,060 7,658 7,539 7,872 7,950 8,061 8,173 8,221
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
Salient Statistics of Hides and Leather in the United States --------- New Supply of Cattle Hides --------------- Domestic Slaughter ------
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
731 713 760 177 751 677 664 615 599 614
33,324 34,196 35,639 36,760 36,318 35,464 36,150 36,246 35,370 35,735
Wholesale Leather
-- Cents Per Pound -- ------ Production -------
Total Net Federally UninExports Inspected spected4 Production ------ Thousands of Equivalent Hides ------
32,593 33,483 34,879 36,583 35,567 34,787 35,486 35,631 34,771 35,120
In Thousands of Equivalent Hides
Wholesale Prices
17,117 16,259 18,336 18,626 17,562 15,937 15,700 19,670 21,750 19,484
Heavy Native Cows2
82.16 94.99 93.89 92.15 90.99 75.45 73.80 83.41
All U.S. CattleHeavy Tanning hide Native Steers3 In 1,000 Equiv. Hides
78.9 87.3 87.6 86.4 86.1 69.5 73.1 81.2 89.8 82.3
18,057 18,842 18,092 18,769 19,592 20,297 21,342 17,332 14,212
16,931 18,117 17,480 18,135 18,930 19,706 20,620 16,746 13,779 16,403
-------- Indexes- --------
------- Footw ear -----Value of U p p e r ProLeather duction5 Men Women Exports Exports $1,000 ------ 1982 = 100 ------- ----- Million Pairs -----
764,120 811,951 870,247 950,510 1,145,664 1,289,547 1,137,534 1,125,957 1,221,131 1,161,943
142.8 144.7 150.1 152.4 156.4 158.0 157.0 157.2 158.4 158.8
126.9 127.2 129.0 132.1 132.2 132.4 133.0 133.6 133.8 133.5
171,733 163,000 147,550 127,315 124,444 108,536 78,581 58,870 54,757
Preliminary. 2 Central U.S., heifers. 3 F.O.B. Chicago. 4 I ncludes farm slaughter; diseased & condemned animals & hides taken off fallen animals. 5 Other than rubber. Sources: Leather I ndustries of America (LI A); Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
20,700 22,505 20,571 23,726 21,958 19,009 18,176 20,157 19,472 21,582
1
123
HIDES AND LEATHER Production of All Footw ear (Shoes, Sandals, Slippers, Athletic, Etc.) in the U.S. First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
43.3 42.5 37.2 33.2 31.4
44.6 40.8 38.3 31.8 33.1
42.8 40.1 34.8 29.7 28.6
41.0 39.5 36.7 33.2 30.6
171.7 163.0 147.0 128.0 124.4
1
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Year
Preliminary.
In Millions of Pairs
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1998 1999 2000 2001 20021
32.8 26.7 ----------
31.8 26.1 ----------
29.3 24.5 ----------
28.6 21.7 ----------
108.5 78.6 68.7 55.6 41.2
Average Factory Price2 of Footw ear in the United States
In Dollars Per Pair
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
Year
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Total
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
21.62 25.77 19.61 23.65 22.42
21.67 23.60 21.46 22.78 21.56
21.37 21.49 25.37 22.14 22.21
21.79 22.44 21.26 20.38 22.24
21.61 23.22 21.79 22.07 22.11
1998 1999 2000 2001 20021
24.39 23.33 ----------
24.21 22.70 ----------
20.27 19.90 ----------
19.78 19.50 ----------
21.84 21.19 24.14 25.66 24.29
1
Preliminary.
2
Average value of factory shipments per pair.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Imports and Exports of All Cattle Hides in the United States Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 1
1,660 1,731 1,759 1,702 1,633 1,930 1,921 1,988 1,721 1,299
Preliminary.
1,597
18,777 17,990 20,095 20,328 19,195 17,867 17,621 21,658 23,471 20,784
965 995 952 1,149 1,320 1,126 829 875 716 837
354 309 332 522 469 1,164 738 1,163 920 1,099
4,167 3,133 3,246 2,372 1,802 1,407 1,252 1,529 1,343 584
7,919 7,472 8,283 7,956 7,470 4,897 6,038 7,673 7,602 5,812
Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 20002 P reliminary.
Brazil
Canada
Hong Kong
11 21 16 33 20 13 10 8 8
17 26 28 35 34 39 42 34 36
80 81 95 100 79 64 71 91 93
2
F orecast.
Italy
Japan
Mexi co
131 141 243 250 263 254 249 215 220
188 188 139 152 123 114 96 95 95
71 71 60 30 71 96 110 115 115
1
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Germany
144 142 96 85 93 115 111 115 108
71 76 84 148 174 216 220 230 250
74 87 79 90 97 97 86 83 85
38 40 24 34 33 35 31 28 31
75 76 93 100 72 60 69 90 92
P reliminary.
124
1 72 63 171
60 141 215 189 148 440 262 189 159 189
1,950 2,491 3,017 2,871 2,866 2,701 2,863 2,844 2,751 2,145
386 332 781 455 323 336 343 562 888 914
2
F orecast.
In Metri c Tons
Portugal
Spain
Tai wan
Turkey
Uni ted States
World Total
32 39 56 43 42 37 39 42 43
385 372 356 342 341 323 229 254 260
26 35 29 42 33 44 44 29 30
91 94 112 112 124 140 142 142 142
28 37 17 43 50 68 45 55 60
65 57 49 57 60 60 59 57 57
1,266 1,426 1,556 1,715 1,692 1,985 1,876 2,002 2,058
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
Hong Kong
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 20002
79 168 111 64 55 91 46 37 54 14
Rep. of Korea
E xp o rts o f B o vin e H id es an d S kin s b y S elected C o u n tries Year
2,217 1,553 899 2,123 2,501 2,846 2,723 2,196 1,647 1,470
Source: Leather I ndustries of America
Imp o rts o f B o vin e H id es an d S kin s b y S elected C o u n tries
1
In Thousands of Hides
-------- Imports -------- ------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Exports - by Country of Destination -----------------------------------------------------------From Rep. of Total Canada Total Canada Italy Ja p a n Korea Mexico Portugal Romania Spain Taiwan Thailand
In Metri c Tons
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Poland
Russia
Uni ted Ki ngdom
Uni ted States
World Total
9 7 10 10 20 16 24 7 8
66 35 37 47 47 48 32 30 25
31 21 22 22 28 27 28 30 30
17 5 2 2 3 3 6 7 7
28 150 216 195 212 210 202 190 170
19 25 22 22 24 25 17 15 15
610 581 455 510 506 473 443 436 427
1,261 1,374 1,271 1,351 1,423 1,475 1,400 1,389 1,399
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
HIDES AND LEATHER
Cents Per Pound ----- Heavy Native Steers, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - date) - - - Light Native Steers, Chicago (Jan. 1901 - Feb. 1966)
U tiliz atio n o f B o vin e H id es an d S kin s b y S elected C o u n tries Year
Argenti na
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 20002 1
308 298 302 304 300 308 332 285 300 285
P reliminary.
2
Brazil Colombia
396 382 510 505 493 461 387 412 415 425
F orecast.
98 97 94 96 89 91 89 91 89 89
In Metric Tons
Germany
Italy
Japan
Mexi co
Rep. of Korea
143 129 100 83 79 80 101 100 102 103
435 435 435 550 570 615 570 540 500 505
253 229 226 200 191 165 150 135 130 130
225 231 232 226 200 230 251 275 280 285
400 400 385 374 355 353 347 265 280 283
Spain
Taiwan
Turkey
Uni ted States
World Total
119 98 98 94 98 95 106 108 104 108
101 91 94 112 112 124 140 142 142 142
78 90 95 85 100 110 120 100 110 120
491 528 554 536 523 548 572 603 623 623
4,009 3,977 4,322 4,282 4,365 4,332 4,609 4,584 4,707 4,774
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
Wholesale Price of Hides (Packer Heavy Native Steers) F.O.B. Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
75.07 90.10 73.67 89.77 66.88 69.42 75.92 85.33 68.23 83.77
75.08 91.42 75.11 93.47 77.33 69.97 76.29 84.12 72.39 85.81
79.00 97.99 77.96 99.44 82.61 70.84 77.86 93.02 80.41 86.04
84.75 102.32 84.58 99.40 83.72 67.36 78.83 102.64 83.21 85.81
87.33 99.64 87.56 89.44 85.05 65.96 79.24 106.19 84.32 79.42
88.77 92.45 82.51 81.45 83.13 66.89 75.18 97.31 86.72 77.64
90.38 85.74 89.45 80.20 81.17 68.17 77.25 87.59 84.43 80.53
89.76 82.46 96.06 83.92 81.11 72.41 81.64 77.28 85.77 84.09
93.90 82.45 98.91 84.86 75.23 77.52 85.60 73.51 85.84 86.78
93.67 82.16 101.51 86.35 67.95 80.43 84.89 70.58 85.75 86.13
93.19 78.02 94.60 89.20 67.53 79.67 84.41 73.30 83.35 85.89
91.13 73.02 90.65 82.61 68.26 78.00 85.31 69.16 85.18 86.05
86.84 88.15 87.71 88.34 76.66 72.22 80.20 85.00 82.13 84.00
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
125
Hogs Hogs are generally bred twice a year in a continuous cycle designed to provide a steady flow of production. The gestation period for hogs is 3-1/2 months and the average litter size is 9-10 pigs. The pigs are weaned at 3-4 weeks of age. The pigs are then fed so as to maximize weight gain. The feed consists primarily of grains such as corn, barley, milo, oats, and wheat. Protein is added from oilseed meals. Hogs typically gain 3.1 pounds per pound of feed. The time from birth to slaughter is typically 6 months. Hogs are ready for slaughter at about 254 pounds, producing a dressed carcass weight of around 190 pounds and an average 88.6 pounds of lean meat. The lean meat consists of 21% ham, 20% loin, 14% belly, 3% spareribs, 7% Boston butt roast and blade steaks, and 10% picnic, with the remaining 25% going into jowl, lean trim, fat, miscellaneous cuts, and trimmings (USDA). Futures on lean hogs are traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The futures contract is settled in cash based on the CME Lean Hog Index price, meaning that no physical delivery of hogs occurs. Prices – Lean hog prices on the weekly nearest futures chart moved sideways in the first quarter of 2003 in the narrow range of about 48-55 cents/pound. Hog prices then rallied sharply in the April-June period to post a 2-year high of 68.20 cents in mid-June. Prices then trended lower through the rest of the year and closed the year at 55.42 cents. That close was very close to the average price of 55 cents seen over the past 3 years. The decline in hog prices in the latter half of the year was due mainly to higher than expected hog counts and slaughter rates, which put downward pressure on cash pork prices. Furthermore, hogs coming to market were several pounds heavier on average than in the previous year. Downward pressure on hog prices also stemmed from a sharp increase in the number of feeder pigs and market hogs being imported from Canada (7 million in 2003, up 1.25 million from 2002, USDA). Offsetting the bearish supply situ-
ation was an increase in US consumer demand for pork, boosted in the latter half of 2003 by some switching away from beef. The switch from beef to pork was due to high beef prices into November and then by beef safety concerns after US mad cow scare hit in late December. Supply – World production of pork in 2003 totaled 87.204 million metric tons, according to the USDA, up by 1.4% from 86.030 million tons in 2002. The USDA is forecasting a continued rise in production to 88.303 million tons in 2004. The US in 2003 produced 8.931 million metric tons of pork, up slightly from 8.929 million tons in 2002. US pork production in 2003 accounted for about 10% of world production. China was the world’s largest pork producer in 2003 at 44.100 million metric tons, followed by the European Union at 17.850 million tons, and then the US. Demand – World consumption of pork in 2003 totaled 86.732 million metric tons, up from 85.639 million in 2002. China is the largest consumer of pork at 43.856 million tons, followed by the European Union at 16.940 million tons, and the US at 8.733 million tons. The US accounts for about 10% of world pork consumption. Trade – World pork exports in 2003 reached a record 4.061 million metric tons, up 1.3% from 4.008 million tons in 2002. The largest exporters of pork in 2003 were the European Union (1.000 million tons), Canada (975,000 tons), the US (762,000 tons), and Brazil (620,000 tons). The largest export markets for US pork products in 2003 were Japan (accounting for 49% of US exports), Mexico (accounting for 19% of US exports), and Canada (accounting for 11% of US exports). World imports in 2003 fell 4.3% to 3.591 million tons from 3.752 million tons in 2002 and a continued slight decline to 3.584 million is expected in 2004. The world’s largest importers of pork in 2003 were Japan (1.150 million tons), Russia (600,000 tons), the US (567,000 tons), and Mexico (335,000 tons).
Salient Statistics of Pigs and Hogs in the United States --------------------------- Pig Crop -------------------------------------- Spring3 ----------- ------------ Fall4 --------------
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 20032 1
Value of Hogs Quantity Hog Sows Pig Pigs on Farms, Dec. 1 Marketings Produced Sows P i g P i gs Crop Per $ Per Farrowed Crop Per Farrowed Total Thousand (Live Wt.) --- 1,000 Head --- Litter --- 1,000 Head --- Litter Head Million $ Head Mill. Lbs.
6,257 6,046 5,648 5,595 6,015 5,877 5,683 5,619 5,779 5,645
Preliminary.
126
2
51,217 50,077 47,887 48,393 52,469 51,519 50,087 49,472 50,752 49,942
Estimate.
8.18 8.28 8.46 8.65 8.73 8.77 8.81 8.81 8.78 8.85 3
6,139 5,843 5,449 5,885 6,047 5,764 5,727 5,767 5,704 5,660
50,262 48,739 46,571 51,190 52,536 50,835 50,660 51,031 50,592 50,464
December-May.
4
8.19 8.35 8.55 8.70 8.69 8.82 8.85 8.85 8.87 8.92
53.2 70.7 94.0 82.0 44.0 72.0 77.0 77.0 71.0
June-November.
3,178 4,115 5,281 4,986 2,766 4,254 4,542 4,590 4,201
100,747 102,684 101,852 104,301 117,240 121,137 118,418 119,262 123,677
24,437 24,426 23,267 23,979 25,715 25,791 25,717 25,884 26,254
-- Hogs Slaughtered in Thousand Head -Value --------- Commercial --------of Production Federally Mil. $ Inspected Other Total Farm Total
9,692 9,829 12,013 12,552 8,674 7,766 10,791 11,430 8,679
93,435 94,203 90,534 90,228 99,285 99,739 96,436 96,528 98,915 99,535
2,261 2,123 1,860 1,733 1,745 1,806 1,540 1,434 1,348 1,242
95,696 96,325 92,394 91,960 101,029 101,544 97,976 97,962 100,263 100,777
208 95,905 210 96,535 175 92,569 161 92,121 163 101,192 141 101,685 125 98,101 119 98,081 114 100,377
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
HOGS Wo rld H o g N u mb ers in S p ecified C o u n tries as o f Jan u ary 1 Brazil
Canada
Chi na
Denmark
France
Germany
Phi li ppi nes
33,050 31,050 31,200 31,338 32,068 31,369 31,427 31,427 31,860 32,440
10,498 10,577 10,534 11,291 11,588 11,480 11,985 12,409 12,242 12,137
369,646 384,210 393,000 414,619 345,848 362,836 400,348 422,563 430,198 446,815
9,767 10,345 10,870 10,864 10,709 11,081 11,442 11,991 11,914 12,125
12,067 13,015 14,791 14,593 14,523 14,968 15,473 15,869 15,991 15,911
26,063 26,514 26,075 24,698 23,737 24,283 24,845 26,299 26,043 25,862
8,022 7,954 8,227 8,941 9,023 9,750 10,210 10,398 10,764 11,715
Year
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1 20012 1
P reliminary.
2
F orecast.
In Thousands of Head Poland
Russia
Spain
Ukrai ne
Uni ted States
World Total
20,725 21,059 17,422 19,138 20,343 17,697 18,498 19,275 18,224 16,988
35,384 31,520 28,600 24,859 22,630 19,500 16,579 16,400 16,100 15,780
17,209 18,260 18,234 18,295 18,600 18,651 18,970 21,715 22,597 22,700
17,839 16,175 15,298 13,946 13,144 11,236 9,479 10,083 10,073 7,652
57,469 58,202 57,940 59,738 58,201 56,124 61,158 62,206 59,342 59,138
728,789 740,758 743,930 758,461 782,425 695,133 731,575 762,206 774,451 652,022
S ource: F oreig n Ag ricult ural S ervice, U.S . Depart ment of Ag ricult ure (F AS -US DA)
Hogs and Pigs on Farms in the United States on December 1 Year
Geargia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
1,020 900 800 520 480 480 380 315 345 295
5,350 4,800 4,400 4,700 4,850 4,050 4,150 4,250 4,150 3,950
4,500 4,000 3,750 3,950 4,050 3,250 3,350 3,200 3,200 3,100
14,500 13,400 12,200 14,600 15,300 15,400 15,100 15,400 15,600 15,800
1,310 1,230 1,450 1,530 1,590 1,460 1,520 1,570 1,530 1,630
4,850 4,950 4,850 5,700 5,700 5,500 5,800 5,800 6,000 6,400
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
In Thousands of Head
Missouri Nebraska
3,500 1,100 3,450 3,550 3,300 3,150 2,900 3,000 2,950 2,950
4,350 4,050 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,000 3,050 2,900 2,950 2,900
North Carolina
Ohio
South Dakota
Wisconsin
Total
7,000 8,200 9,300 9,600 9,700 9,500 9,300 9,800 9,700 9,900
1,800 1,800 1,500 1,700 1,700 1,480 1,490 1,430 1,440 1,520
1,740 1,450 1,200 1,400 1,400 1,260 1,320 1,290 1,310 1,260
1,040 900 800 740 690 570 610 540 520 490
59,990 58,264 56,171 61,158 62,206 59,342 59,138 59,804 59,513 60,040
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Hog-Corn Price Ratio1 in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
16.1 16.8 13.8 20.0 14.1 12.8 19.3 18.8 19.1 14.2
17.2 17.5 13.8 19.9 14.1 13.5 20.2 20.0 19.9 14.7
16.2 16.4 13.9 17.7 13.7 13.6 20.5 23.5 18.6 14.9
16.1 15.1 12.9 19.2 14.8 14.8 23.3 25.3 16.6 14.9
16.4 15.3 13.7 21.6 18.1 18.4 22.9 27.7 17.2 17.4
16.4 16.8 13.4 22.6 18.6 17.3 25.6 29.7 18.2 19.2
18.4 17.6 13.2 24.3 16.8 18.2 29.5 27.6 18.4 19.7
19.4 18.5 13.9 22.1 18.6 20.7 28.8 26.6 13.4 18.4
16.2 18.0 15.4 20.0 16.1 19.4 25.8 23.7 10.7 18.0
15.4 16.4 19.3 18.6 14.6 20.2 23.8 21.8 13.2 17.4
14.1 13.9 20.5 18.0 9.7 19.6 19.8 18.9 12.2 15.8
14.5 14.2 21.1 16.5 7.3 19.6 20.2 16.8 13.1 14.7
16.4 16.4 15.4 20.0 14.7 17.3 23.3 23.4 15.9 16.6
1 Bushels of corn equal in value to 100 pounds of hog, live weight. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
2
Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service,
Cold Storage Holdings of Froz en Pork2 in the United States, on First of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
299.2 365.3 334.8 313.8 346.4 503.5 415.4 411.5 465.0 468.5
348.8 389.6 382.2 342.2 446.1 510.3 481.4 471.4 503.9 512.7
356.9 395.1 385.5 383.9 464.5 540.9 523.5 468.3 510.9 519.7
393.1 416.8 352.9 404.7 458.8 552.8 534.7 432.3 531.5 530.5
429.7 422.3 385.5 440.2 487.0 596.9 532.1 432.6 567.7 520.0
437.6 434.9 381.3 413.4 477.4 572.7 537.9 421.5 548.0 499.7
410.8 431.1 351.8 406.2 426.8 528.6 495.5 374.1 497.8 455.0
393.7 408.3 322.7 388.7 414.6 494.6 478.5 339.5 472.2 440.7
364.0 354.0 322.9 371.8 392.6 432.6 455.6 332.6 464.4 430.2
352.7 332.6 340.3 346.6 388.9 430.6 439.5 366.9 480.2 435.2
385.4 321.6 333.3 354.2 411.9 438.1 438.6 430.6 489.8 446.8
383.2 347.1 316.4 334.1 443.4 422.5 445.6 432.7 463.9 438.9
2
Excludes lard.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
127
HOGS
Cents Per Pound ----- Top, Chicago (Jan. 1909 - Mar 1968) Farrowing, Chicago (Apr. 1968 - May 1970) Average, Omaha (June 1970 - date)
Average Price of Hogs, National Base 51-52% lean2 In Dollars Per Hundred Pounds (Cwt.) Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
43.99 37.82 42.39 52.96 35.60 28.58 38.32 38.61 40.16 34.39
48.12 39.09 46.93 51.36 34.53 29.65 41.58 41.47 40.65 35.64
44.30 37.94 49.06 48.52 37.22 28.25 43.52 48.41 37.47 36.11
42.72 35.88 50.88 54.41 37.22 31.69 49.59 49.28 32.97 36.42
42.27 37.35 58.29 57.84 45.51 38.45 50.21 52.34 34.64 43.62
42.76 43.03 56.45 57.43 45.32 35.39 51.48 54.53 37.32 47.88
42.62 47.18 59.47 58.89 39.85 32.84 50.45 53.75 40.53 44.98
42.37 49.46 60.49 54.17 37.98 38.56 45.35 52.47 34.00 41.90
35.49 48.67 54.60 49.45 32.00 35.71 43.49 46.93 26.98 41.82
32.56 45.42 55.41 46.12 29.60 35.84 43.09 41.27 31.69 38.63
28.25 40.02 54.42 44.86 19.95 35.34 37.84 35.49 29.99 36.02
31.59 43.80 55.47 40.33 16.62 37.70 41.40 35.14 32.35 36.02
39.75 42.14 53.66 51.36 34.28 34.00 44.69 45.81 34.90 39.45
Preliminary.
2
Data Prior to January 1998 are for Sioux City.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Average Price Received by Farmers for Hogs in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
128
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
43.5 36.8 42.6 53.8 36.0 26.5 36.8 37.2 37.7 33.0
47.9 39.1 46.5 52.8 35.9 27.7 39.9 39.2 38.5 34.3
44.4 37.8 48.7 49.4 34.9 28.0 41.7 45.9 36.0 34.7
42.7 35.6 49.7 53.8 35.6 30.1 47.4 47.8 31.7 34.8
42.7 37.1 56.8 58.2 42.4 36.6 48.3 50.4 33.2 41.3
42.7 42.2 56.4 57.8 42.5 34.1 48.9 52.2 35.8 45.0
42.2 46.3 58.6 58.9 36.9 31.6 48.3 51.7 39.2 42.8
41.8 48.6 59.7 55.3 35.2 36.2 43.8 50.8 31.9 39.5
35.4 48.4 54.7 50.4 29.5 33.9 41.6 45.2 26.5 39.6
31.8 45.7 55.6 47.3 27.8 34.2 41.4 40.2 30.8 36.8
28.0 39.9 54.4 45.1 18.9 33.4 36.8 35.0 27.8 34.8
30.9 43.5 55.6 41.6 15.0 35.6 39.8 33.3 30.3 34.2
39.5 41.8 53.3 52.0 32.6 32.3 42.9 44.1 33.3 37.6
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
HOGS Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report in the United States, 10 States Year2
Inventory3
Breeding3
1994 I II III IV 1995 I II III IV 1996 I II III IV 1997 I II III IV 1998 I II III IV
57,904 57,904 57,350 60,715 62,320 59,990 59,990 58,465 59,560 60,540 58,264 58,264 55,741 56,038 56,961 56,124 56,141 55,049 57,366 60,456 61,158 61,158 60,163 62,213 63,488
7,130 7,130 7,210 7,565 7,415 7,060 7,060 6,998 7,180 6,898 6,839 6,839 6,701 6,682 6,577 6,578 6,667 6,637 6,789 6,858 6,957 6,957 6,942 6,958 6,875
Market3 Farrowings
Pig Crop
Year2
50,739 50,739 50,140 53,150 54,905 52,930 52,930 51,467 52,380 53,642 51,425 51,425 49,040 49,356 50,384 49,546 49,474 48,412 50,577 53,598 54,200 54,200 53,220 55,254 56,612
101,400 23,368 27,984 25,547 24,517 98,516 23,851 26,373 24,813 23,479 94,458 23,054 24,833 23,244 23,327 99,583 23,164 25,229 25,696 25,494 104,981 25,480 26,989 26,634 25,878
1999 I II III IV 2000 I II III IV 2001 I II III IV 2002 I II III IV 2003 1 I II III IV
12,376 2,885 3,390 3,107 2,997 11,847 2,886 3,170 2,976 2,815 11,114 2,735 2,930 2,718 2,731 11,480 2,684 2,911 2,946 2,939 12,062 2,929 3,086 3,054 2,993
In Thousands of Head
Inventory3
Breeding3
62,206 62,206 60,191 60,896 60,776 59,342 59,342 57,782 59,117 59,495 59,138 59,138 57,524 58,603 59,777 59,804 59,804 59,248 60,288 60,725 59,513 59,513 58,207 59,586 60,103
6,682 6,682 6,527 6,515 6,301 6,234 6,234 6,190 6,234 6,246 6,270 6,270 6,232 6,186 6,158 6,209 6,209 6,236 6,209 6,054 6,012 6,012 6,021 5,960 5,902
1
Preliminary. 2 Quarters are Dec. preceding year-Feb.(I ), Mar.-May(I I ), June-Aug.(I I I ) and Sept.-Nov.(I V). Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Federally Inspected Hog Slaughter in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
3
Market3 Farrowings
Pig Crop
55,523 55,523 53,663 54,380 54,474 53,109 53,109 51,593 52,884 53,250 52,868 52,868 51,292 52,417 53,619 53,594 53,594 53,011 54,078 54,670 53,501 53,501 52,186 53,626 54,201
102,354 25,247 26,272 25,862 24,973 100,747 24,522 25,565 25,548 25,112 100,503 23,963 25,509 25,539 25,492 101,345 24,794 25,959 25,700 24,892 125,556 24,359 25,583 25,150 50,464
11,641 2,891 2,986 2,920 2,844 11,410 2,798 2,885 2,889 2,838 11,385 2,748 2,870 2,878 2,889 11,483 2,836 2,943 2,887 2,817 11,307 2,765 2,881 2,825 2,836
Beginning of period.
In Thousands of Head
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
7,285 7,882 8,129 7,610 8,454 8,373 8,010 8,521 8,552 8,680
6,783 7,157 7,506 6,836 7,590 7,746 7,955 7,491 7,400 7,580
8,148 8,628 7,549 7,437 8,335 8,945 8,695 8,207 7,879 8,052
7,609 7,379 7,886 7,590 8,198 8,386 7,108 7,722 8,321 8,230
7,383 8,012 7,485 6,971 7,443 7,303 7,816 7,836 8,215 7,705
7,452 7,731 6,395 6,859 7,596 8,176 7,823 7,368 7,425 7,649
6,941 6,918 7,187 7,169 8,130 7,778 7,235 7,333 7,957 7,995
7,997 8,083 7,509 7,197 8,024 8,256 8,481 8,247 8,425 7,936
8,192 7,752 7,541 7,872 8,443 8,501 7,992 7,687 8,384 8,445
8,585 8,358 8,423 8,625 9,192 8,806 8,746 9,210 9,276 9,534
8,516 8,424 7,469 7,601 8,650 8,750 8,633 8,610 8,548 8,490
8,547 7,881 7,455 8,461 9,231 8,719 7,943 8,298 8,534 9,236
93,435 94,203 90,534 90,228 99,285 99,739 96,436 96,528 98,915 99,532
Preliminary. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
Average Live Weight of all Hogs Slaughtered Under Federal Inspection
In Pounds Per Head
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
254 258 257 257 259 259 262 265 268 268
254 256 254 256 258 259 262 264 267 267
254 257 255 256 257 259 263 264 267 268
256 258 255 256 257 260 263 265 268 268
255 258 255 256 256 260 264 264 267 268
256 258 256 257 255 260 263 264 266 266
252 256 251 253 252 257 260 261 261 263
252 253 250 252 252 254 258 258 259 261
255 252 250 255 253 256 260 262 261 263
259 255 255 257 257 259 263 267 264 268
261 259 258 261 262 262 266 269 268 270
260 258 257 260 261 262 265 268 268 269
256 257 254 256 257 259 262 264 265 267
1
Preliminary. Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
129
HOGS
Data through December 1996 contract are for Live Hogs * .74 Adjusted to correspond to the Lean Hogs contract.
Average Open Interest of Lean Hog1 Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
31,899 36,705 35,253 33,105 45,908 46,003 49,209 41,425 28,720 40,660
32,123 30,958 34,823 33,953 42,241 44,211 54,094 41,892 31,662 39,862
31,012 30,736 38,730 31,289 38,965 43,803 57,472 48,381 33,056 40,446
31,713 28,035 42,900 34,071 33,610 48,277 68,535 45,296 33,472 37,883
30,889 28,294 41,916 41,978 34,257 55,951 64,938 41,910 33,161 43,672
27,327 28,729 36,620 37,398 32,456 52,398 54,208 45,715 28,719 47,338
26,414 29,959 35,616 36,141 32,085 54,723 45,730 51,661 29,338 39,706
25,335 31,599 32,541 33,712 31,199 49,915 38,233 47,760 32,030 37,700
28,957 34,183 32,591 31,483 34,165 53,055 38,802 42,072 36,136 49,469
32,077 31,312 34,329 36,928 34,051 54,089 38,254 36,983 35,245 46,295
36,304 31,519 33,148 39,363 42,224 54,432 40,075 32,821 42,852 43,552
33,516 35,127 32,163 39,394 45,241 50,691 45,141 27,687 43,974 43,352
1
Data thru October 1995 are Live Hogs, November 1995 thru December 1996 are Live Hogs and Lean Hogs. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Lean Hog1 Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total2
144,701 155,766 177,299 180,241 180,241 218,608 175,399 183,493 145,266 186,436
96,736 115,800 138,002 159,600 182,698 171,108 186,352 159,020 120,994 137,479
146,934 181,919 150,117 200,118 174,752 196,825 231,532 197,004 168,929 186,511
93,105 116,767 216,476 212,810 132,952 189,773 158,765 142,892 196,956 156,370
127,381 145,350 208,696 222,759 155,737 214,852 218,222 165,220 163,816 209,740
144,373 155,295 177,359 188,615 167,767 237,240 235,036 184,421 158,074 210,901
116,181 139,013 185,872 181,637 185,427 239,096 172,725 198,503 166,064 199,782
122,058 144,590 157,540 146,297 157,973 167,787 145,849 164,712 140,154 124,677
110,697 135,262 158,077 149,950 164,964 190,238 146,240 152,178 174,797 232,705
128,980 132,122 203,789 175,135 173,163 187,794 142,240 177,601 167,065 207,247
150,744 142,460 170,586 152,876 218,950 205,505 153,043 163,798 165,039 164,190
172,132 136,191 152,098 130,871 241,767 139,270 146,404 129,497 164,106 148,117
1,554.0 1,700.7 2,095.9 2,100.9 2,136.3 2,358.1 2,111.8 2,018.3 1,931.3 2,164.2
Data thru October 1995 are Live Hogs, November 1995 thru December 1996 are Live Hogs and Lean Hogs. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
130
2
I n thousands of contracts.
Honey Honey is the thick, supersaturated sugar solution produced by bees to feed their larvae. It is composed of fructose, glucose and water in varying proportions and also contains several enzymes and oils. The color of honey varies due to the source of nectar and age of the honey. Light colored honeys are usually of higher quality than darker honeys. The average honeybee colony can produce more than 700 pounds of honey per year but only 10 percent is usually harvested by the beekeeper. The rest of the honey is consumed by the colony during the year. American per capita honey consumption is 1 pound per person per year. Honey is said to be humanity’s oldest sweet, and beeswax was the first plastic. Honey is used in many ways, including direct human consumption, for baking, and as medicine. Honey has several healing properties. Its high sugar content nourishes injured tissues, thus enhancing faster healing time. Honey’s phytochemicals create a form of hydrogen peroxide that cleans out the wound, and the thick consistency protects the wound from contact with air Honey has also proven superior to antibiotic ointments for reducing rates of infection in people with burns. Prices – US average domestic honey prices in 2001 rose to 70.4 cents per pound from the 7-year low of 59.7 cents posted in 2000. The value of US honey production in
World Production of Honey Year
In Metric Tons
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Germany
Ja p a n
Mexico
Russia
United States
Total
57,000 70,000 65,000 93,000 93,000 80,000 85,000
26,000 27,000 22,000 19,000 21,000 22,000 22,000
18,000 18,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 22,000 22,000
27,000 31,000 46,000 37,000 32,000 35,000 33,000
189,000 215,000 211,000 236,000 252,000 255,000 258,000
15,000 15,000 16,000 20,000 20,000 2,600 22,000
3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
49,000 54,000 55,000 55,000 59,000 59,000 55,000
46,000 49,000 50,000 51,000 54,000 53,000 55,000
90,000 89,000 100,000 94,000 100,000 84,000 90,000
1,091,000 1,148,000 1,178,000 1,234,000 1,246,000 1,255,000 1,270,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
Preliminary.
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS-USDA)
Salient Statistics of Honey in the United States
Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 20032 1
2002 was $222 million, up sharply from $132 million in 2001. Supply – World production of honey in 2000, the latest reporting year for the series, rose +1.4% to 1.241 million metric tons from 1.224 million metric tons in 1999. World honey production has been stable in the 1.0-1.2 million metric ton range over the last 15 years. The world’s largest producer of honey by far is China with 256,000 metric tons of production in 2000, representing 21% of total world production. US production of honey in 2002 fell –7.7% to 171.1 million pounds from 185.5 million in 2001, and was sharply below the recent 9-year high of 220.3 million pounds posted in both 1998 and 2000. Stocks in 2002 (Jan 1) fell to a 22year low of 39.0 million pounds from 64.6 million pounds in 2001. The drop in production in 2002 was mostly due to a sharp decline in yield per colony to a 12-year low of 67.8 pounds per colony, down from 74.0 in 2001 and 84.1 pounds in 2000. The number of colonies in 2002, however rose +0.7% to 2.524 million. Trade – The US imports almost as much honey as it produces, with imports in 2001 at 145.0 million pounds, down from 198.5 million pounds in 2000. US exports of honey are small and totaled only 7.4 million pounds in 2001, accounting for only 4% of US production.
Imports Domestic Total D i sa p Stocks U.S. Pro- for Conduction sumption pearance Jan. 1
Number of Yield Per Colonies Colony (1,000) Pounds
2,633 2,688 2,620 2,506 2,574 2,590
Preliminary.
2
83.7 76.4 84.1 74.0 66.7 69.9
Forecast.
69.1 79.4 85.3 64.6 39.4 40.7 3
220.3 205.3 220.3 185.5 171.7 181.1
Fiscal year.
132.4 182.5 198.5 144.8 202.5
In Millions of Pounds
Exports
Total Supply
10.4 11.1 10.1 7.4 7.3
397.5 -------------
332.9 -------------
------- Program Activity ------Net Gov't ExpendCCC Placed iture3 Take Under Over Loan Mil. $
----------------
----------------
Domestic National Avg. Price Avg. Price All Honey Support - Cents Per Pound -
----------------
65.5 60.1 59.7 70.4 132.7 140.4
----------------
P er Capita Consumption Pounds
----------------
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
Production and Yield of Honey in the United States Year
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
------------------------ Production in Thousands of Pounds ----------------------CaliMinneNorth South fornia Florida sota Dakota Dakota Total
37,350 30,300 30,800 27,625 23,500 32,160
Preliminary.
22,540 23,256 24,360 22,000 20,460 14,910
11,060 11,890 13,500 10,935 8,541 9,960
29,440 26,775 34,500 26,880 24,000 29,580
21,375 23,296 28,435 15,275 11,475 14,000
220,316 205,250 220,339 185,461 171,718 181,096
Value of -------------------- Yield per Colony in Pounds---------------------Production CaliMinneNorth South $1,000 fornia Florida sota Dakota Dakota Average
144,304 126,075 132,742 132,225 228,338 255,791
83 60 70 65 50 67
98 102 105 100 93 71
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (NASS-USDA)
79 82 90 81 73 83
128 105 115 96 75 87
95 104 121 65 51 70
83.7 76.4 84.1 74.0 66.7 69.9
131
Interest Rates, U.S. US interest rates can be characterized in two main ways, credit quality and maturity. Credit quality refers to level of risk associated with a particular borrower, with US Treasury securities carrying the lowest risk. Maturity refers to the point in time when the security matures and must be repaid. Treasury securities, for example, carry the full spectrum of maturities, from short-term cash management bills, to T-bills (3-months, 6-months, and 4-weeks), Tnotes (2-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-years), and 30-year Tbonds. The most active futures markets are Treasury note and bond futures traded at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Eurodollar futures traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Fed policy – US interest rates during 2003 trended lower early in the year due to weak economic growth tied to the impending Iraq war. Interest rates then moved higher over the summer after the economy started to recover. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) came into 2003 with its overnight federal funds rate at 1.25% but the FOMC then cut its funds rate target by another 0.25% to a 45-year low of 1.00% on June 25 to ensure an economic recovery. As 2003 ended, the market was expecting the Fed to raise its funds rate target by 25 bp by summer 2004 and by another 25 bp by autumn 2004. The Fed’s extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy during 2003 was designed to ensure that the US economy would get back on its feet. The US economy had taken some major hits in the previous two years, with the stock market bubble bursting in 2000, the 9/11 terrorist attack in September 2001, and the corporate scandals seen through 2002 and 2003. Those external shocks, combined
U.S. Producer Price Index2 for All Commodities Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
1982 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
122.9 126.3 129.7 125.4 122.9 128.3 140.0 128.5 135.3
123.5 126.2 128.5 125.0 122.3 129.8 137.4 128.4 137.6
123.9 126.4 127.3 124.7 122.6 130.8 135.9 129.8 141.2
124.6 127.4 127.0 124.9 123.6 130.7 136.4 130.8 136.8
124.9 128.1 127.4 125.1 124.7 131.6 136.8 130.8 136.7
125.3 128.0 127.2 124.8 125.2 133.8 135.5 130.9 138.0
125.3 128.0 126.9 124.9 125.7 133.7 133.4 131.2 137.7
125.1 128.3 127.2 124.2 126.9 132.9 133.4 131.5 138.0
125.2 128.2 127.5 123.8 128.0 134.7 133.3 132.3 138.5
125.3 128.0 127.8 124.0 127.7 135.4 130.3 133.2 139.4
125.4 128.2 127.9 123.6 128.3 135.0 129.8 133.1 138.9
125.7 129.1 126.8 122.8 127.8 136.2 128.1 132.9 139.4
124.8 127.7 127.6 124.4 125.5 132.7 134.2 131.1 138.1
Preliminary.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
U.S. Consumer Price Index2 for All Urban Consumers Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
1982-84 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
150.3 154.4 159.1 161.6 164.3 168.8 175.1 177.1 182.2
150.9 154.9 159.6 161.9 164.5 169.8 175.8 177.8 183.3
151.4 155.7 160.0 162.2 165.0 171.2 176.2 178.8 183.9
151.9 156.3 160.2 162.5 166.2 171.3 176.9 179.8 183.3
152.2 156.6 160.1 162.8 166.2 171.5 177.7 179.8 183.3
152.5 156.7 160.3 163.0 166.2 172.4 178.0 179.9 183.6
152.5 157.0 160.5 163.2 166.7 172.8 177.5 180.1 183.9
152.9 157.3 160.8 163.4 167.1 172.8 177.5 180.7 184.5
153.2 157.8 161.2 163.6 167.9 173.7 178.3 181.0 185.0
153.7 158.3 161.6 164.0 168.2 174.0 177.7 181.3 185.0
153.6 158.6 161.5 164.0 168.3 174.1 177.4 181.4 184.6
153.5 158.6 161.3 163.9 168.3 174.0 176.7 181.6 185.0
152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0
Preliminary.
132
with the impending war with Iraq in early 2003, caused concern that the US might slip into another recession and that deflation could become a serious problem. But by late 2003, the Fed’s extremely stimulative monetary policy, combined with the expansive fiscal policy, helped create an economic boom and US GDP soared to +8.2% by Q3. Treasury supply – The Treasury in 2003 made some substantial changes to its debt auction schedule due to the US budget deficit, which soared to $401 billion in fiscal 2003 and is expected to be near $480 billion in fiscal 2004. The higher budget deficit is due to three main factors: (1) lower revenues with the weak economy, (2) high expenses from the war on terror and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and (3) the Bush tax cuts. The Treasury in 2003 revised its auction mix by (1) selling 5-year T-notes monthly versus its previous pattern of eight sales per year, (2) reinstating a quarterly sale of 3-year T-notes (after a 5-year hiatus), (3) increasing the frequency of 10-year T-note sales to eight per year from four per year, and (4) increasing the frequency of inflation-indexed 10-year T-notes to four per year. Treasury yield curve – The Treasury yield curve was extremely steep during 2003. The Fed’s extraordinarily easy monetary policy and the funds rate target of 1.00% kept short-term interest rates locked down to extremely low levels. Longer-term rates, however, were higher as the market discounted a return to a more normal inflation and interest rate situation in coming years. The spread between the 10-year T-note and the 2-year T-note, a widely-watched indicator of yield curve steepness, rose to 2.73 percentage points in July 2003, which was a record high going back to the beginning of the data series in 1977.
2
Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Commerce (BLS)
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Average Open Interest of 3-month Eurodollar Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
2,300.5 2,443.6 2,519.4 2,190.8 2,713.4 2,917.9 2,971.3 3,576.4 4,592.0 4,007.1
2,529.5 2,535.4 2,638.6 2,333.2 2,821.5 3,039.5 3,261.4 3,878.6 4,937.0 4,500.1
2,568.1 2,463.9 2,511.4 2,423.1 2,797.9 2,973.5 3,138.7 4,117.4 4,727.9 4,517.3
2,627.3 2,447.4 2,483.5 2,523.1 2,892.6 2,894.7 3,156.6 4,109.3 4,411.6 4,448.6
2,734.3 2,503.3 2,571.8 2,671.3 3,089.0 3,183.2 3,331.7 4,316.3 4,421.0 5,098.7
2,565.2 2,390.8 2,590.1 2,706.5 3,093.9 3,208.8 3,272.1 4,471.7 4,295.5 5,514.2
2,599.1 2,279.5 2,504.4 2,699.2 3,027.7 3,064.4 3,160.3 4,452.4 4,123.7 5,218.4
2,703.8 2,374.6 2,485.5 2,788.0 3,223.0 3,115.6 3,225.7 4,753.5 4,482.4 5,277.9
2,699.6 2,347.2 2,392.4 2,769.3 3,359.9 2,904.0 3,181.8 4,567.8 4,243.4 5,034.1
2,561.2 2,290.3 2,349.7 2,815.1 3,303.4 2,918.2 3,067.2 4,524.0 4,237.9 4,935.4
2,660.3 2,405.5 2,378.2 2,799.5 3,297.4 2,879.7 3,201.1 4,950.8 4,553.7 5,024.2
2,606.3 2,480.5 2,225.7 2,661.6 3,000.1 2,859.4 3,349.7 4,559.1 4,072.5 4,936.1
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of 3-month Eurodollar Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
6,075 10,341 7,486 7,903 10,908 7,471 8,380 17,515 19,487 13,534
8,745 10,429 9,267 6,918 7,861 7,675 9,723 12,908 14,491 12,315
9,469 9,549 9,526 8,936 8,842 8,719 10,198 15,479 17,987 18,275
9,639 6,069 6,872 9,352 9,488 7,347 10,172 15,192 17,947 15,393
11,494 9,897 7,414 8,447 7,202 8,957 10,261 15,691 18,717 19,403
9,348 10,105 7,415 8,050 8,350 9,650 9,791 14,310 17,932 21,163
7,810 6,670 8,323 7,292 5,452 7,746 7,385 12,673 20,367 18,733
7,128 7,013 6,968 9,295 9,811 8,898 7,010 14,948 17,758 18,724
7,641 7,171 8,232 7,635 13,594 7,629 8,205 16,776 15,310 18,817
7,992 6,478 7,014 12,570 11,757 7,501 9,276 14,139 18,496 20,004
9,715 6,055 5,057 6,314 9,628 6,223 7,561 21,150 13,349 15,432
9,766 5,952 5,308 7,058 6,579 5,604 10,152 13,234 10,240 16,978
104,823 95,730 88,883 99,770 109,473 93,418 108,115 184,015 202,081 208,771
Source: I nternational Monetary Market (I OM), division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
133
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
24,696 43,794 20,194 20,599 39,649 39,971 34,325 82,168 86,505 107,084
36,184 41,932 26,865 23,027 40,462 40,747 43,026 79,389 103,331 114,234
39,818 33,705 21,125 22,750 40,840 40,339 44,512 81,688 103,568 123,909
37,306 29,109 17,494 24,090 40,899 40,078 43,772 72,517 87,850 108,979
36,331 26,227 16,606 29,379 46,833 34,731 49,033 66,185 102,040 120,264
32,673 18,721 17,547 33,225 47,241 35,959 51,216 63,601 105,931 118,776
29,963 19,346 15,758 36,047 44,701 35,349 55,806 56,610 99,383 112,052
33,038 18,657 16,849 47,253 48,888 37,624 53,449 72,951 107,955 149,099
36,606 16,756 17,792 44,003 47,030 38,693 47,912 74,353 110,434 151,922
31,385 17,057 17,730 40,960 37,245 38,157 53,338 65,433 108,089 144,646
35,929 25,740 19,247 37,785 38,222 38,702 60,894 72,697 115,503 149,014
40,344 19,362 20,309 37,701 40,303 34,135 77,860 71,270 113,618 156,506
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago
In Contracts
Year
Sept.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
39,855 60,170 38,710 32,403 77,139 64,460 51,539 174,603 195,004 146,797
99,669 93,842 98,916 93,921 104,312 132,651 159,339 299,158 332,884 392,934
Mar.
Apr.
May
127,658 38,595 131,682 29,273 51,861 28,135 79,008 44,548 107,051 52,038 66,958 62,860 97,880 76,889 160,898 194,758 290,410 159,242 292,515 153,316
90,394 73,610 60,097 100,191 140,903 132,319 160,157 273,983 376,968 513,945
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
134
June
July
Aug.
102,460 43,231 68,363 34,073 46,049 37,971 102,651 53,120 123,312 59,360 93,555 46,547 105,192 43,017 163,314 93,386 242,925 177,001 339,209 274,095
65,330 68,666 61,838 138,498 177,445 139,182 180,980 316,446 376,991 513,993
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
98,060 31,830 37,805 34,181 58,688 25,530 96,988 68,512 160,102 93,117 71,284 43,987 107,353 97,403 198,066 122,944 253,009 174,779 522,811 281,118
94,659 81,013 69,046 107,780 140,650 124,064 287,602 303,778 387,153 496,714
104,291 49,033 61,006 100,630 72,923 72,262 126,469 160,646 232,287 488,459
936,032 761,711 637,847 1,018,250 1,308,352 1,050,129 1,493,820 2,461,980 3,198,653 4,415,906
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
200,812 206,539 163,026 176,691 257,094 290,373 387,008 377,692 507,207 685,117
213,037 210,192 184,523 208,928 270,048 268,561 475,464 391,989 576,204 743,152
200,626 199,357 200,253 219,540 282,327 247,526 420,789 374,481 585,576 777,801
185,083 200,087 191,690 235,543 277,540 246,916 417,929 376,929 632,211 835,470
192,659 213,531 179,951 227,882 274,145 311,106 428,239 436,278 656,402 856,337
186,026 189,332 177,370 225,691 257,193 348,627 379,628 421,968 594,924 827,497
189,828 176,329 174,484 226,306 264,756 325,348 402,658 460,960 554,875 781,691
182,027 173,897 179,599 225,792 389,118 341,495 405,087 483,252 652,799 840,392
181,518 163,419 154,764 234,309 382,855 298,861 372,779 451,429 655,029 737,028
181,578 162,121 138,246 233,480 383,809 328,581 373,698 463,247 662,475 819,361
176,322 177,915 155,820 248,377 353,399 272,628 381,432 554,640 720,688 925,644
205,150 171,023 154,764 257,886 326,860 288,523 380,248 491,105 692,750 880,093
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago
In Thousands of Contracts
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
696 988 837 928 1,452 1,120 1,801 2,423 2,868 4,436
1,235 1,296 1,312 1,157 1,482 1,554 2,874 2,592 3,826 5,178
1,295 1,387 1,085 1,271 1,391 1,337 2,010 2,281 3,848 5,534
917 783 816 984 1,155 1,115 1,708 2,063 3,092 4,624
1,202 1,291 1,135 1,191 1,281 1,906 2,548 3,222 4,638 7,268
1,155 1,403 878 1,144 1,377 1,544 1,757 2,264 4,096 6,166
835 829 882 761 944 1,166 1,189 1,702 4,437 6,463
945 1,100 1,062 1,245 2,481 2,164 2,253 2,697 5,354 7,090
1,107 1,009 979 1,244 1,913 1,034 1,516 2,617 4,859 7,454
841 770 690 1,314 1,583 1,245 1,774 2,526 5,027 6,364
1,157 996 831 1,068 1,723 1,607 2,260 4,053 5,013 6,885
1,078 785 957 1,183 1,279 1,193 1,643 2,684 3,453 6,286
12,463 12,637 11,463 13,489 18,060 16,984 23,332 31,122 50,512 73,746
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
135
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
264,848 282,978 260,374 332,285 430,335 528,538 595,180 550,287 572,937 772,919
258,643 285,187 297,850 343,661 507,986 549,518 653,822 541,619 643,864 896,941
300,080 265,747 285,501 323,982 474,916 515,404 571,932 560,035 679,635 914,943
328,821 263,816 319,234 348,683 494,417 510,091 615,618 595,103 699,051 897,057
294,091 273,945 331,032 350,814 533,214 541,057 621,361 628,693 806,458 968,072
June
July
In Contracts
Aug.
Sept.
254,612 232,373 253,233 289,052 306,046 323,078 293,416 302,330 326,391 336,927 363,744 407,147 513,369 512,173 604,862 574,514 588,272 623,806 583,900 608,358 602,068 512,127 550,155 627,305 792,956 877,642 958,338 993,643 1,009,484 1,032,497
273,564 277,011 291,208 387,284 555,268 607,305 547,582 610,435 888,696 856,204
Nov.
D e c.
277,313 301,000 278,832 270,527 284,581 313,298 398,645 404,980 482,928 508,299 653,080 582,003 564,606 555,189 590,328 661,963 970,176 938,028 985,673 1,140,655
Oct.
271,992 249,073 303,702 374,448 503,533 487,888 508,888 559,949 751,575 965,049
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
1,484 1,753 1,649 1,781 2,394 2,269 3,557 4,633 5,540 9,121
1,936 1,979 2,313 1,940 2,749 3,562 4,975 4,915 6,407 10,746
2,572 2,459 2,076 2,052 2,817 2,994 3,750 4,501 6,521 11,321
2,213 1,368 1,632 1,703 2,342 2,145 3,530 4,299 5,463 9,377
2,399 2,236 2,211 2,026 2,696 3,519 4,712 5,483 8,309 13,817
2,250 2,496 1,716 1,942 2,682 3,153 3,706 4,084 7,548 12,149
1,622 1,589 1,556 1,510 1,704 2,438 2,581 3,493 8,981 15,285
2,029 2,029 1,866 2,536 3,632 3,736 4,460 5,683 10,590 14,249
1,933 1,859 1,810 2,063 3,560 2,509 3,780 4,390 8,529 13,707
1,635 1,460 1,495 2,594 2,883 2,471 3,824 4,145 11,199 13,587
2,254 1,731 1,905 1,826 2,912 3,202 4,514 7,270 9,679 12,475
1,750 1,488 1,711 1,991 2,112 2,048 3,313 4,690 7,020 10,912
24,078 22,445 21,940 23,962 32,483 34,046 46,701 57,586 95,786 146,745
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
136
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Prior to the March 2000 contract, prices are theoretical based on a 6% coupon.
Average Open Interest of 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
380,057 384,356 382,001 497,539 744,894 657,180 637,023 413,244 468,455 420,797
422,902 389,908 403,403 545,775 764,309 801,115 612,298 479,165 520,573 506,910
454,539 369,989 395,338 509,573 766,233 664,131 530,957 519,987 479,939 487,277
500,790 367,964 381,926 493,511 806,559 618,453 503,412 509,558 463,100 449,286
May
June
July
In Contracts
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
497,296 421,286 441,884 451,462 399,500 421,234 438,267 381,237 413,944 443,644 464,145 471,203 554,418 480,669 530,011 608,474 888,215 1,040,659 1,084,889 1,061,223 717,453 674,225 672,983 748,974 434,771 390,928 394,075 440,437 503,194 455,799 458,613 531,098 472,778 458,020 427,896 465,971 566,887 596,186 554,632 521,928
447,924 361,394 420,622 624,231 837,986 647,816 402,156 525,972 496,815 423,995
436,684 395,346 409,950 723,321 769,932 621,816 399,880 567,177 467,440 443,177
449,642 447,409 463,731 719,186 782,677 637,656 443,282 602,647 459,877 489,185
397,554 426,384 479,086 737,703 662,025 561,919 445,386 478,418 440,225 471,848
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
Volume of Trading of 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Thousands of Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
7,288 7,058 7,529 8,105 9,595 8,075 7,966 5,123 4,133 3,625
8,430 7,714 8,781 7,523 9,368 10,031 8,157 5,546 4,721 4,841
10,837 9,624 7,199 7,493 9,764 8,667 5,379 5,196 4,505 5,107
9,557 5,835 6,011 7,520 8,517 7,197 5,282 4,584 3,933 3,795
9,999 8,722 7,932 8,339 9,054 9,556 5,973 6,022 5,191 7,188
9,804 8,447 6,521 7,400 10,209 8,072 4,459 4,233 4,722 5,896
6,987 5,790 6,422 7,680 8,071 6,415 3,080 3,347 5,158 6,352
7,910 7,084 6,626 10,228 12,025 7,995 4,710 4,966 5,667 6,198
7,913 7,317 6,926 8,356 11,159 6,560 4,529 4,331 4,534 5,738
7,004 6,927 6,772 12,468 10,698 6,301 4,460 4,599 5,190 5,122
8,533 6,626 7,298 7,736 8,155 6,909 5,073 6,746 4,723 4,823
5,699 5,232 6,708 6,980 5,609 4,263 3,682 3,886 3,606 4,835
99,960 86,376 84,725 99,828 112,224 90,042 62,751 58,579 56,082 63,522
Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBT)
137
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
U.S. Federal Funds Rate
In Percent
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
3.05 5.53 5.56 5.25 5.56 4.63 5.46 5.98 1.73 1.24
3.25 5.92 5.22 5.19 5.51 4.76 5.73 5.49 1.74 1.26
3.34 5.98 5.31 5.39 5.49 4.81 5.85 5.31 1.73 1.25
3.56 6.05 5.22 5.51 5.45 4.74 6.02 4.80 1.75 1.26
4.01 6.01 5.56 5.50 5.49 4.74 6.27 4.21 1.75 1.26
4.25 6.00 5.27 5.56 5.56 4.76 6.53 3.97 1.75 1.22
4.26 5.85 5.40 5.52 5.54 4.99 6.54 3.77 1.73 1.01
4.47 5.74 5.22 5.54 5.55 5.07 6.50 3.65 1.74 1.03
4.73 5.80 5.30 5.54 5.51 5.22 6.52 3.07 1.75 1.01
4.76 5.76 5.24 5.50 5.07 5.20 6.51 2.49 1.75 1.01
5.29 5.80 5.31 5.52 4.83 5.42 6.51 2.09 1.34 1.00
5.45 5.60 5.29 5.50 4.68 5.30 6.40 1.82 1.24 0.98
4.20 5.84 5.30 5.46 5.35 4.97 6.24 3.89 1.67 1.13
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
U.S. Municipal Bond Yield1
In Percent
Year
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
5.31 6.53 5.43 5.72 5.06 5.02 6.08 5.10 5.16 4.90
5.40 6.22 5.43 5.63 5.10 5.03 6.00 5.18 5.11 4.81
5.91 6.10 5.79 5.76 5.21 5.10 5.83 5.13 5.29 4.76
6.23 6.02 5.94 5.88 5.23 5.08 5.75 5.27 5.22 4.74
6.19 5.95 5.98 5.70 5.20 5.18 6.00 5.29 5.19 4.41
6.11 5.84 6.02 5.53 5.12 5.37 5.80 5.20 5.09 4.33
6.23 5.92 5.92 5.35 5.14 5.36 5.63 5.20 5.02 4.74
6.21 6.06 5.76 5.41 5.10 5.58 5.51 5.03 4.95 5.10
6.28 5.91 5.87 5.39 4.99 5.69 5.56 5.09 4.74 4.92
6.52 5.80 5.72 5.38 4.93 5.92 5.59 5.05 4.88 4.89
6.97 5.64 5.59 5.33 5.03 5.86 5.54 5.04 4.95 4.73
6.80 5.45 5.64 5.19 4.98 5.95 5.22 5.25 4.85 4.65
6.18 5.95 5.76 5.52 5.09 5.43 5.71 5.15 5.04 4.75
1
20-bond average.
138
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
U.S. Industrial Production Index1 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2
1997 = 100
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
105.7 111.9 112.4 121.3 130.3 134.1 143.6 143.9 109.0 111.2
106.2 111.6 113.8 122.1 130.2 134.5 144.3 143.5 109.2 111.6
107.0 111.7 113.2 122.5 130.7 135.1 145.2 142.9 109.6 110.8
107.4 111.4 114.3 123.1 131.3 135.5 146.3 142.0 110.1 110.1
108.1 111.5 114.8 123.3 131.9 136.2 147.2 141.6 110.4 110.0
108.6 111.7 115.5 123.5 130.6 136.6 147.9 140.3 110.8 110.0
109.1 111.7 115.5 124.5 130.5 137.4 147.6 140.4 111.6 110.8
109.2 112.6 115.8 125.2 132.4 137.7 148.7 140.0 111.3 110.9
109.3 113.0 116.0 125.6 131.9 138.1 148.8 138.5 111.2 111.5
109.9 112.5 116.2 129.3 134.1 139.1 146.3 137.7 111.0 111.9
110.6 112.7 120.6 129.9 133.8 141.9 145.8 108.8 111.2 113.1
111.6 112.8 120.9 130.3 133.8 142.8 145.1 108.3 110.6 113.2
108.6 114.5 119.5 127.0 132.4 139.2 145.7 111.5 110.9 111.3
1
Total I ndex of the Federal Reserve I ndex of Quantity Output, seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
2
Preliminary.
U.S. Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 1
--------------- Gross Domestic Product --------------First Second Third Fourth Annual Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Average
-------------------- National Income -------------------First Second Third Fourth Annual Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Average
6,888 7,016 7,096 7,218 7,054 7,298 7,343 7,433 7,529 7,401 7,630 7,783 7,859 7,981 7,813 8,124 8,280 8,391 8,479 8,318 8,628 8,697 8,817 8,985 8,782 9,093 9,172 9,317 9,516 9,274 9,650 9,821 9,875 9,954 9,825 10,028 10,050 10,098 10,153 10,082 10,313 10,377 10,506 10,589 10,446 10,688 10,803 11,063 10,852
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates.
2
Preliminary.
In Billions of Constant Dollars1
5,373 5,775 6,067 6,455 6,874 7,343 7,860 8,092 8,269 8,496
5,525 5,834 6,178 6,556 6,986 7,406 7,955 8,110 8,328 8,618
5,609 5,920 6,255 6,676 7,109 7,476 8,048 8,089 8,350 8,796
5,720 5,978 6,343 6,787 7,197 7,650 8,075 8,197 8,414
5,557 5,877 6,210 6,618 7,041 7,462 7,984 8,122 8,340 8,637
-------------------- Personal Income -------------------First Second Third Fourth Annual Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Average
5,714 6,110 6,405 6,792 7,255 7,656 8,212 8,658 8,803 9,080
5,861 6,163 6,509 6,879 7,383 7,722 8,350 8,676 8,914 9,156
5,935 6,226 6,597 6,979 7,491 7,808 8,488 8,706 8,959 9,249
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA)
6,042 6,305 6,678 7,098 7,576 7,960 8,577 8,701 9,013
5,888 6,201 6,547 6,937 7,426 7,787 8,407 8,685 8,922 9,162
139
INTEREST RATES, U.S. U .S. Money Supply M12 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Bi lli ons of D ollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1,131.8 1,151.0 1,122.8 1,080.9 1,073.7 1,095.8 1,120.3 1,095.3 1,182.7 1,218.4
1,136.3 1,147.0 1,118.3 1,077.6 1,077.7 1,096.6 1,108.6 1,099.4 1,184.6 1,232.9
1,140.3 1,146.4 1,122.1 1,070.3 1,076.5 1,097.4 1,108.9 1,107.7 1,188.4 1,238.2
1,141.2 1,149.8 1,124.8 1,062.7 1,076.7 1,101.2 1,111.9 1,110.6 1,177.5 1,243.4
1,143.2 1,144.8 1,116.4 1,062.9 1,076.6 1,100.7 1,104.8 1,115.6 1,182.0 1,255.5
1,145.3 1,143.5 1,114.8 1,064.6 1,075.6 1,098.8 1,104.3 1,123.6 1,186.3 1,268.7
1,149.7 1,145.0 1,111.5 1,065.9 1,074.9 1,097.7 1,103.1 1,135.6 1,192.6 1,273.3
1,150.0 1,145.1 1,100.7 1,072.8 1,073.3 1,097.3 1,101.4 1,147.3 1,181.1 1,282.3
1,151.3 1,140.7 1,095.0 1,066.6 1,078.9 1,096.6 1,098.7 1,199.2 1,188.7 1,282.3
1,150.0 1,136.2 1,086.4 1,066.4 1,085.2 1,101.5 1,099.0 1,161.5 1,200.0 1,284.6
1,150.2 1,133.3 1,081.6 1,068.8 1,092.7 1,109.8 1,092.4 1,164.9 1,202.6 1,283.8
1,150.5 1,127.0 1,079.3 1,072.5 1,096.1 1,124.0 1,087.9 1,177.2 1,215.0 1,293.0
1,145.0 1,142.5 1,106.1 1,069.3 1,079.8 1,101.5 1,103.4 1,136.5 1,190.1 1,263.0
1
2 Preliminary. M1 -- The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal R eserve B anks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (ex cept demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal R eserve float. Seasonally adjusted. Source: B oard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
U.S. Money Supply M22 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Billions of Dollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
3,485.1 3,501.8 3,658.0 3,829.8 4,055.3 4,407.3 4,678.2 4,989.7 5,480.3 5,838.2
3,485.7 3,499.4 3,673.3 3,840.9 4,088.2 4,434.1 4,692.3 5,029.2 5,510.4 5,881.0
3,491.6 3,500.6 3,698.6 3,856.3 4,114.9 4,444.5 4,723.1 5,088.6 5,521.5 5,906.4
3,496.2 3,510.6 3,709.9 3,873.2 4,140.1 4,475.3 4,775.3 5,152.8 5,527.6 5,949.7
3,504.3 3,532.5 3,720.5 3,884.9 4,159.4 4,494.3 4,766.8 5,154.7 5,558.6 5,998.5
3,492.6 3,557.8 3,734.2 3,903.1 4,183.9 4,514.8 4,783.6 5,193.0 5,580.6 6,035.7
3,497.3 3,577.9 3,748.4 3,922.7 4,203.7 4,538.8 4,798.9 5,224.5 5,623.0 6,079.5
3,494.8 3,599.5 3,756.6 3,951.9 4,230.2 4,560.8 4,833.2 5,257.2 5,658.3 6,118.1
3,495.4 3,610.2 3,767.7 3,970.4 4,271.5 4,577.1 4,863.9 5,368.5 5,684.9 6,096.3
3,495.0 3,622.2 3,780.8 3,989.1 4,312.3 4,595.5 4,881.1 5,360.3 5,730.7 6,080.3
3,497.1 3,631.2 3,794.6 4,011.0 4,351.9 4,619.8 4,892.8 5,403.3 5,777.2 6,076.0
3,496.3 3,640.2 3,815.5 4,031.0 4,383.7 4,649.4 4,933.3 5,452.8 5,805.8 6,070.8
3,494.3 3,565.3 3,738.2 3,922.0 4,207.9 4,526.0 4,801.9 5,222.9 5,621.6 6,010.9
1
Preliminary. 2 M2 -- M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. Seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
U .S. Money Supply M32 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Bi lli ons of D ollars
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
4,275.2 4,383.7 4,658.8 4,999.9 5,493.0 6,063.4 6,585.1 7,213.1 8,033.2 8,550.6
4,259.8 4,385.1 4,687.4 5,028.8 5,526.1 6,111.4 6,614.3 7,279.2 8,077.6 8,587.8
4,271.2 4,405.7 4,723.0 5,066.9 5,595.7 6,117.1 6,686.8 7,351.8 8,097.4 8,619.4
4,282.4 4,428.3 4,741.2 5,107.2 5,634.0 6,156.6 6,751.1 7,486.7 8,119.3 8,655.9
4,292.7 4,466.3 4,777.1 5,132.7 5,671.7 6,185.1 6,760.0 7,543.5 8,155.4 8,711.3
4,290.7 4,504.5 4,800.4 5,162.9 5,710.8 6,219.1 6,804.4 7,618.4 8,166.6 8,761.5
4,310.5 4,531.5 4,825.9 5,221.3 5,733.6 6,249.0 6,855.2 7,657.8 8,208.5 8,837.9
4,311.4 4,566.0 4,845.3 5,277.3 5,799.6 6,281.0 6,927.1 7,666.2 8,271.6 8,876.2
4,320.0 4,585.1 4,873.2 5,317.4 5,866.6 6,305.8 6,984.0 7,821.8 8,308.0 8,865.2
4,331.7 4,602.8 4,913.6 5,362.3 5,937.3 6,360.6 7,006.8 7,864.9 8,335.9 8,835.6
4,346.3 4,614.6 4,932.7 5,403.6 5,995.4 6,447.5 7,024.2 7,943.4 8,467.5 8,821.9
4,360.2 4,625.4 4,972.1 5,446.0 6,036.2 6,535.1 7,102.3 8,012.2 8,540.6 8,813.6
4,304.3 4,508.2 4,812.6 5,210.5 5,750.0 6,252.6 6,841.8 7,621.6 8,231.8 8,744.7
2 Preliminary. M3 -- M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in C anada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
140
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
Percent ----- Prime Rate - - - Discount Rate
Percent ----- Municipal Bonds - - - Corporate AAA Bonds
141
INTEREST RATES, U.S.
-------------
142
Percent Prime Rate 30-Year Bond Discount Rate 3-Month Treasury Bill
Interest Rates, Worldwide Interest rate futures contracts are widely traded throughout the world. The most popular futures contracts for each country are generally the 10-year government bond and the 3-month interest contract. In Europe, futures on German interest rates are traded at the all-electronic Eurex Exchange in Frankfurt. Futures on UK interest rates are traded at the Liffe Exchange in London. Futures on Canadian interest rates are traded at the Montreal Exchange. Futures on Japanese interest rates are traded at the Singapore Exchange (Simex) and at the Tokyo Stock Exchange. A variety of other interest rate futures contracts are traded throughout the rest of the world (please see the front of this Yearbook for a complete list). Euro-Zone – The 10-year German Bund futures contract traded at the Eurex and rallied sharply and posted a record high of 120.00 in June 2003. However, the Bund then backed off through November and traded sideways into December, finally closing the year at 112.53, only slightly above the 2002 close of 112.23. The Bund in 2003 basically tracked the movement in US T-Notes, rallying early in the year on the Iraq war and then trailing off later in the year due to the upward rebound in the European and general world economies. The 3-month Euribor contract rallied sharply into June and then traded sideways for the remainder of the year in the narrow range between 97.80 (2.20%) and 98.00 (2.00%) on the weekly nearest futures chart. The European Central Bank (ECB) in 2003 cut its key refinancing rate by a total of 75 basis points, with a 25 basis point cut to 2.50% on March 7 and a 50 basis point cut to 2.00% on June 6. Despite the 75 basis point rate cut, the ECB’s key rate of 2.00% in the latter half of the year was still a full 100 basis points higher than the US Federal Reserve’s federal funds target rate of 1.00%, even though the European economy during 2003 was weaker than the US economy. That left the ECB open to charges of being overly hawkish with its monetary policy. Moreover, the sharp rally in the euro during the year also had the effect of dampening the European economy via lower exports. The euro ended 2003 more than 50% above its record low against the dollar in 2000 and was up 34% from its 2002 average. As 2003 ended, the ECB was under pressure to counteract the impact on the strong euro, either through talking down the euro, through currency intervention, or through some easing of monetary policy. UK – The 10-year Gilt contract traded at the Liffe Exchange in London and rallied into June to post a record high of 124.77 but then sold off sharply through November, finally closing the year near 117.07. Gilts in the latter half of 2003 were much weaker than the German Bund because the UK economy in 2003 proved to be much stronger than in continental Europe. The Bank of England in early 2003 cut its base rate by a total of 50 basis points with a 25 basis point cut on February 6 to 3.75% and another 25 basis point cut on July 10 to 3.50%. However, the BOE was then forced to raise the base rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on Novem-
ber 6 due to the strong UK economy, strong consumer credit growth, and a torrid real estate sector. With its base rate at 3.75%, the UK key reference rate was a hefty 275 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s 1.00% federal funds rate target. Canada – The Canadian 10-year T-note futures contract traded at the Montreal Exchange and rallied in April and May to peak at a record high of 114.09 in June. The contract then fell back into the relatively narrow trading range of 107-110 through the remainder of the year, tracking US T-Note prices fairly closely. The 3-month Bankers Acceptance futures contract traded at the Montreal Exchange and rallied from April through October and closed the year near 1-3/4 year highs of 97.425 (or 2.575%). The Bank of Canada in 2003 raised its overnight target range by a total of 50 basis points in early 2003 (+25 basis points on March 4 and +25 basis points on April 15) to 3.25%, but then reversed that with a 50 basis point rate cut during mid-year (-25 basis points on July 15 and –25 basis points on September 3). The Canadian economy was hurt during the year by the impact from mad cow disease and from the SARS outbreak that hit Toronto. In addition, the Canadian dollar rallied sharply against the US dollar during 2003, causing concern about lower exports to the US. However, as 2003 ended, the Bank of Canada was fairly confident about the prospects for the Canadian economy. Japan – The 10-year JGB futures contract at the Simex rallied steadily in early 2003 to post a 145.03 on the weekly nearest futures chart. However, the contract then sold off sharply in the July-September period as signs finally emerged of a recovery in the Japanese economy. JGBs finally closed the year at 137.41, about 4-1/2 points lower than the 2002 close of 141.98. The 3-month Euroyen contract at the Simex traded sideways all year in the extraordinarily narrow range of 99.90 to 99.95 (10-15 basis points). Short-term rates were locked near zero due to the Bank of Japan’s continued zero-interest-rate monetary policy. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) in 2003 left its monetary policy unchanged all year with its overnight rate set only a few basis points above zero. The Bank of Japan in 2003 finally appeared to be making a little headway in stimulating the economy and trying to get a sustainable economic expansion going. The 1990’s were basically a lost decade for Japan which suffered from the severe hangover from the real estate and stock market bubble of the late 1980’s. Japanese monetary policy was basically caught in a classic liquidity trap through 2003 whereby even zero interest rates and a huge amount of excess reserves were ineffective in stimulating the economy because of the crippled banking system and the lack of credit demand from Japanese consumers and businesses. However, as 2003 ended, the Japanese government was making some headway on reforming the Japanese banking system and the Japanese economy was picking up, raising hopes that the Japanese economy in 2004 might finally display the long-awaited recovery.
143
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE
9% through March 1998 contract 7% June 1998 contract to December 2003 contract 6% March 2004 contract to date
144
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE
145
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE
9% through March 2000 contract 6% June 2000 contract to date
146
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE Australia -- Economic Statistics
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 0 0 32 20043
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
4.1 3.7 5.4 4.4 3.0 2.7 3.3 2.4 3.7
5.1 5.4 5.7 5.2 7.4 5.8 6.2 5.3 6.1
3.2 4.0 4.5 4.9 3.2 3.0 4.1 3.8 3.6
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
2.9 2.6 3.4 2.9 5.8 1.6 4.0 3.0 3.5
4.2 9.4 8.3 6.9 -.4 -1.7 13.6 7.5 3.6
3.1 3.2 6.9 5.4 2.0 1.6 5.8 5.3 3.6
10.6 11.5 -.2 4.6 10.8 1.4 -.1 -2.7 7.1
8.3 10.5 6.0 9.2 7.1 -4.1 12.0 9.4 6.8
2.6 .3 .9 1.5 4.5 4.4 3.0 2.8 2.0
8.2 8.3 7.8 7.0 6.3 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.9
Estimate.
3
1
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Canada -- Economic Statistics
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 20043
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
1.6 4.2 4.1 5.5 5.3 1.9 3.3 1.8 2.8
3.3 5.5 3.7 7.4 9.5 3.0 4.3 5.4 4.4
2.6 4.6 2.8 3.8 4.0 2.6 3.4 3.4 3.1
France -- Economic Statistics
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
-1.2 -1.0 3.2 2.1 2.6 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.4
4.4 15.2 2.4 7.3 5.5 4.3 1.3 3.3 4.9
1.3 6.2 2.5 4.3 4.8 1.4 3.8 4.1 3.1
5.6 8.3 9.1 10.7 8.8 -3.1 -.1 -1.8 5.0
5.1 14.2 5.1 7.8 8.0 -5.0 .6 3.8 6.2
1.6 1.6 1.0 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.8 1.4
9.6 9.1 8.3 7.6 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.8 7.8
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
1.0 1.9 3.6 3.2 4.2 2.1 1.3 .1 1.7
2.5 3.2 4.5 3.7 5.0 3.8 3.2 1.6 3.0
1.3 .2 3.6 3.5 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.6 1.6
Germany2 -- Economic Statistics
1 4
Estimate.
3
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
2.2 2.1 -.1 1.5 3.0 2.9 4.1 2.0 1.5
-.1 -.2 7.2 8.3 8.4 2.1 -1.4 -1.1 1.6
.7 .7 4.2 3.7 4.5 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.7
3.2 12.0 8.3 4.2 13.4 1.8 1.3 -2.2 4.6
1.6 7.3 11.6 6.2 15.3 1.4 .8 1.2 5.0
2.1 1.3 .7 .6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.4
12.0 12.1 11.5 10.7 9.4 8.7 9.0 9.6 9.8
Estimate.
3
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Year
2
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real Private Consumption
1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 20043
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Real Public Consumption
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Year
Projection.
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real Private Consumption
1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 20043
2
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.1 1.0 .2 .0 1.4
1.8 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.3 1.8 .9 2.7
.9 .7 1.7 3.6 2.2 1.5 -1.0 .7 1.2
2
Projection.
Percentage Change from Previous Period Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
1.8 .3 1.9 .8 1.0 1.0 1.7 .8 .1
-.7 .9 2.3 3.8 3.2 -3.9 -6.5 -2.1 1.4
.3 .7 2.2 2.7 2.0 -.7 -1.6 .8 1.2
5.3 11.4 6.4 5.1 14.4 6.1 3.4 .3 4.6
3.3 8.4 8.6 8.1 11.0 1.2 -1.6 2.9 4.4
1.2 1.5 .6 .6 1.4 1.9 1.3 .9 .8
8.4 9.2 8.7 8.0 7.3 7.4 8.1 8.9 9.1
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. 2 Data are for Western Germany only, except for foreign trade statistics. Projection. Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
3
Estimate.
147
INTEREST RATES, WORLDWIDE Italy -- Economic Statistics
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 20043
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
1.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 3.3 1.7 .4 .5 1.6
6.4 4.5 4.5 3.2 5.4 4.5 3.1 3.2 3.6
1.3 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.7 1.1 .4 1.9 1.7
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
1.0 .2 .2 1.3 1.6 3.6 1.7 1.3 .8
3.4 2.1 3.8 5.0 7.5 2.4 .7 -2.1 2.3
.8 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.8
.6 6.4 3.4 .1 11.7 1.1 -1.0 -2.6 4.9
-.3 10.1 8.9 5.6 8.9 1.0 1.5 1.6 5.5
4.0 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.0
11.7 11.8 11.9 11.5 10.7 9.6 9.1 8.9 8.9
1
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Japan -- Economic Statistics
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 0 0 32 20043
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
3.4 1.8 -1.1 .1 2.8 .4 .2 2.7 1.8
2.6 2.2 -1.2 -1.4 .9 -1.2 -1.5 .1 .4
2.4 .9 -.1 .2 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1
Sw itz erland -- Economic Statistics
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
2.9 1.0 2.1 4.4 4.7 2.5 2.3 1.6 2.0
6.4 .9 -3.9 -.9 2.9 -1.2 -4.7 4.4 .2
3.9 .9 -1.5 .2 2.4 1.1 -.5 2.3 1.1
6.5 11.3 -2.3 1.5 12.3 -6.0 8.1 7.5 9.5
13.2 1.2 -6.8 3.0 9.4 .1 2.0 4.5 5.2
.1 1.7 .7 -.3 -.7 -.7 -.9 -.2 -.2
3.4 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.2
Estimate.
3
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
.3 1.7 2.4 1.5 3.2 .9 .2 -.5 1.2
.7 1.5 2.3 2.2 4.4 2.0 .8 -.6 1.0
.7 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 .7 .4 1.2
2
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Real Private Consumption
2.7 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.7
6.1 6.2 6.0 5.2 5.2 4.5 5.0 4.8 4.9
3.6 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.6 3.1 3.6 2.4 2.4
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
2.0 .0 1.3 1.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 .9 .4
-2.4 1.5 4.5 2.7 5.8 -3.3 -4.1 -2.1 .6
.1 .8 3.5 2.5 2.5 .7 -1.2 -1.4 1.3
2.4 8.4 5.4 5.1 10.1 .0 -.4 -.5 3.8
1.9 6.1 8.3 7.4 8.4 -.3 -3.5 -2.4 4.4
.8 .5 .0 .8 1.6 1.0 .6 .6 .3
3.8 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.9 3.9
Estimate.
3
2
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Percentage Change from Previous Period
Real Public Consumption
Grossed Fixed Investment
Real Total Domestic Demand
Real Exports of Goods & Services
Real Imports of Goods & Services
Consumer Prices1
Unemployment Rate
.7 -.3 1.3 3.2 1.9 1.7 2.4 3.4 1.7
5.7 6.8 12.7 1.6 3.6 3.6 1.8 2.9 4.9
3.0 3.6 4.9 3.8 3.8 2.7 2.9 2.4 3.0
8.6 8.4 2.8 4.3 9.4 2.5 -.9 -.9 6.5
9.7 9.8 9.3 7.9 9.1 4.5 3.6 1.1 7.0
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.8 2.6
8.0 6.9 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.9
Estimate.
3
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
148
Projection.
Percentage Change from Previous Period
United Kingdom -- Economic Statistics
1
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Real Total Domestic Demand
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Year
Projection.
Grossed Fixed Investment
1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 20043
3
Real Public Consumption
National accounts inplicit private consumption deflator. Development (OECD)
Year
Estimate.
Percentage Change from Previous Period
1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 0 0 32 20043
2
2
Projection.
Source: Organization for Economic Co-opertation and
Iron and Steel China with 20.8% of world production, followed closely by Brazil (19.8%), and Australia (17.1%). The US accounted for only 4.4% of world iron ore production in 2001. World production of raw steel (ingots and castings) in 2002 fell – 0.1% to 846.972 million metric tons, with the largest producers being China (with 17.6% of world production), Japan (12.1%), and the US (10.6%). US production of steel in 2003 was on track to match or fall slightly below the 2002 production level of 100.976 million short tons, which was up from the 10-year low of 98.889 million short tons in 2001. US production of pig iron (excluding ferro-alloys) in 2003 was on track to fall -3.7% to 42.712 million short tons. Demand – US consumption of ferrous scrap and pig iron fell –5.0% in 2002 to 113.000 million metric tons from 119.000 million metric tons in 2001. The largest consumers of ferrous scrap and pig iron in 2002 were the manufacturers of pig iron and steel ingots and castings with 87% of consumption at 98.000 million metric tons. Iron foundries and miscellaneous users accounted for 11% of consumption and manufacturers of steel castings (scrap) accounted for 2% of consumption. Trade – The US imported 10.70 million metric tons of iron ore in 2001, down sharply from 15.700 million metric tons in 2000. The bulk of 2001 imports came from Canada (4.530 million metric tons) and Brazil (4.260 million metric tons).
Iron is a soft, malleable, and ductile metallic element. Next to aluminum, iron is the most abundant of all metals. Pure iron melts at about 1535 degrees Celsius and boils at 2750 degrees Celsius. Archaeologists in Egypt discovered the earliest iron implements dating to about 3000 BC, and iron ornaments were used even earlier. Steel is an alloy of iron and carbon, often with an admixture of other elements. The physical properties of various types of steel and steel alloys depend primarily on the amount of carbon present and how it is distributed in the iron. Steel is marketed in a variety of sizes and shapes, such as rods, pipes, railroad rails, tees, channels, and Ibeams. Steel mills roll and form heated ingots into the required shapes. The working of steel improves the quality of the steel by refining its crystalline structure and making the metal tougher. There are five classifications of steel: carbon steels, alloy steels, high-strength low-ally steels, stainless steel, and tool steels. Prices – Steel prices in 2003 recovered sharply, mainly due to import tariffs imposed by President Bush, which allowed US producers to push prices higher. The average wholesale price of No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap rose to $114.03 per metric ton from the depressed levels of $89.78 seen in 2002 and $74.17 seen in 2001. Supply – World production of iron ore in 2001 fell slightly to 1.060 billion metric tons from 1.080 billion in 2000. The world’s largest producers of iron ore in 2001 were
World Production of Raw Steel (Ingots and Castings) Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Rep. of Korea
Russia
Ukraine
25,207 25,747 25,076 25,237 26,153 25,800 24,996 27,865 26,717 29,604
14,387 13,897 14,415 14,735 15,554 15,930 16,300 15,900 16,300 16,300
89,539 92,613 95,360 101,237 108,911 115,590 124,260 128,500 151,630 181,550
17,106 18,031 18,100 17,633 19,767 20,126 20,211 21,002 19,431 20,524
37,625 40,837 42,051 39,793 45,007 44,046 42,056 46,376 44,775 44,999
25,720 26,151 27,766 23,910 25,842 25,798 24,964 26,544 26,483 25,930
99,623 98,295 101,640 98,801 104,545 93,548 94,192 106,444 102,866 107,745
33,026 33,745 36,772 38,903 42,554 39,896 41,042 43,107 43,852 45,390
58,346 48,812 51,589 49,253 48,502 43,822 51,524 59,098 59,030 59,777
32,609 24,081 22,309 22,332 25,629 23,461 27,390 31,780 33,110 34,538
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
16,625 88,793 17,286 91,244 17,604 95,191 17,992 95,535 18,489 98,486 17,066 98,600 16,634 97,400 15,022 102,000 13,610 90,100 11,718 91,600
727,549 725,107 752,260 749,992 798,892 770,000 784,000 845,000 847,000 898,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Average Wholesale Prices of Iron and Steel in the United States No. 1 Heavy Melting
------------------------------------------------------------------------ Pittsburg Prices -----------------------------------------------------------------------H ot GalvanRailroad Cold Carbon Hot Used ------ Sheet Bars -----Rolled ized Steel Rolled Steel Rolled Steel Hot Cold Sheet2 Scrap3 Sheets Strip Strip Plates Cans4 Pittsburg Chicago Rolled Finished ---- $ Per Gross Ton ---- -------------------------------------------------- Cents Per Pound -------------------------------------------------- ------ $ Per Gross Ton ------------ Steel Scrap -------
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 1
136.76 142.34 137.28 133.38 110.10 97.86 103.73 79.34 101.06 128.32
131.91 143.17 136.07 139.40 118.76 102.49 96.07 74.17 89.92 113.82
22.93 25.32 23.94 18.12 15.57 14.74 15.67 11.71 16.46 14.80
-------------------------------
25.70 25.70 26.46 25.65 25.50 23.50 23.08 22.76 23.26 25.15
Preliminary. 2 10 gauge; thru 1992,list prices;1993 to date, market prices. NA = Not available. Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
23.50 24.88 25.00 ---------------------3
27.61 29.98 31.58 32.00 22.50 14.00 15.69 12.94 -------
Specialties scrap.
39.40 39.40 ------------------------4
32.24 34.47 35.05 28.62 24.11 21.20 21.38 16.41 22.00 20.08
169.00 169.00 169.00 169.00 164.29 150.00 150.00 NA NA ----
102.33 126.32 121.27 108.13 109.44 68.94 82.23 68.52 66.71 116.21
Consumer buying prices.
149
IRON AND STEEL Salient Statistics of Steel in the United States
Year
Producer Price Index for Steel Mill Pig Iron Products Production (1982=100)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
54,426 56,097 54,485 54,679 53,164 51,002 52,787 46,424 44,341 43,122
Preliminary.
2
113.4 120.1 115.7 116.4 113.8 105.3 108.4 101.3 104.8 109.6
In Thousands of Short Tons
---------------------------------------- Raw Steel Production ---------------------------------------B a si c Oxygen
Open Hearth
Electric2
61,028 62,523 60,433 61,053 59,686 57,722 59,485 52,204 50,114 50,942
-------------------------------
39,551 42,407 44,876 47,508 49,067 49,673 52,756 47,118 51,564 48,751
I ncludes crucible steels.
Stainless
Carbon
Alloy
Total
2,022 89,535 2,265 92,656 2,061 93,649 2,382 95,933 2,214 97,054 2,086 98,694 2,104 102,141 1,836 92,946 1,894 92,518 1,952 98,772
9,022 10,009 9,599 10,246 9,484 5,421 5,379 4,666 4,779 4,901
100,579 104,930 105,309 108,561 108,752 107,395 111,903 99,322 101,679 99,693
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2
1
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
87.7 93.8 92.2 85.3 90.0 77.2 89.7 77.6 84.5 83.1
92.2 95.6 92.6 89.3 95.2 79.5 89.4 82.3 88.4 87.3
91.3 96.0 93.8 89.6 93.1 81.7 91.2 81.8 86.7 85.0
91.4 92.9 90.5 89.2 92.5 81.8 92.0 82.9 90.3 87.8
91.2 91.6 89.7 87.9 89.1 81.7 91.3 81.5 89.4 81.1
88.7 90.1 91.3 87.0 86.1 79.7 89.6 81.6 92.5 86.2
87.1 86.8 86.6 85.1 83.0 79.4 85.3 79.8 86.8 78.9
87.7 88.3 87.1 86.4 86.4 82.8 83.5 80.4 91.0 78.3
90.0 93.6 87.7 91.2 83.0 82.3 82.7 80.5 94.0 80.7
92.0 90.3 88.0 86.9 81.0 88.2 81.0 77.5 90.8 82.8
92.6 92.1 87.0 89.6 74.4 89.1 75.1 73.5 86.8 83.9
94.3 90.2 87.9 86.3 74.8 88.5 72.0 65.9 83.9 81.9
93.0 91.7 89.5 89.4 85.7 82.7 85.2 78.8 88.8 83.1
2
Preliminary.
Sources: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI );
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
8,003 8,918 8,981 8,735 9,510 8,422 9,838 8,475 8,050 8,617
7,598 8,211 8,438 8,266 9,087 7,837 9,170 8,122 7,609 8,175
8,323 9,131 9,136 9,175 9,839 8,854 10,009 8,932 8,261 8,817
8,180 8,548 8,588 8,882 9,524 8,643 9,843 8,685 8,214 8,692
8,437 8,696 8,798 9,048 9,483 8,914 10,097 8,832 8,401 8,047
7,941 8,286 8,661 8,662 8,863 8,413 9,592 8,550 8,414 8,534
7,996 8,308 8,585 8,692 8,832 8,619 9,411 8,459 8,510 8,163
8,053 8,455 8,627 8,818 9,194 8,993 9,213 8,525 8,918 8,096
7,993 8,668 8,407 9,006 8,548 8,650 8,830 8,263 8,916 8,026
8,477 8,685 8,702 9,128 8,681 9,574 8,978 8,125 9,015 8,514
8,256 8,574 8,276 9,116 7,710 9,357 8,054 7,226 8,340 8,347
8,684 8,678 8,689 9,071 8,013 9,604 7,982 6,695 8,329 8,414
100,579 103,142 104,356 107,488 107,643 105,882 111,015 98,889 100,976 100,442
Preliminary.
Year
1
In Percent
Mar.
Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI )
Shipments of Steel Products1 by Market Classifications in the United States
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20034
32,705 27,270 32,115 34,389 41,520 35,731 37,957 30,080 32,686 23,125
F eb.
Production of Steel Ingots in the United States 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
4,852 8,157 6,168 7,369 5,520 5,426 6,529 6,144 6,009 8,220
Jan.
1 Based on tonnage capability to produce raw steel for a full order book. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Year
95,084 97,494 100,878 105,858 102,420 106,201 109,050 99,448 99,191 105,625
Sources: American I ron & Steel I nstitute (AI SI ); U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Production of Steel Ingots, Rate of Capability Utiliz ation1 in the United States Year
Total Net S t e e l Products ----Shipments Steel Mill Products Exports Imports
------ By Type of Furnace ------
Appliances Utensils & Cutlery
1,736 1,589 1,713 1,635 1,729 1,712 1,530 1,675 1,734 1,891
ConMachinery, Constainers, Industrial Con- Electrical Packaging truction Equipment EquipAuto- & Shipping Including tractors & Tools ment Export Maint. Products motive Materials
14,753 14,622 14,665 15,251 15,842 15,639 14,697 12,767 12,562 11,937
4,495 4,139 4,101 4,163 3,829 3,768 3,684 3,193 3,251 2,949
10,935 11,761 15,561 15,885 15,289 14,685 14,763 16,339 15,729 14,403
3,348 3,337 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
2,299 2,397 2,401 2,434 2,255 2,260 2,039 1,694 1,336 1,200
1,710 4,442 2,328 2,610 2,556 2,292 2,752 2,281 1,844 2,572
2,427 2,310 2,410 2,355 2,147 1,547 1,513 1,210 1,137 1,108
Rail Oil Transand Gas portaion
1,703 2,643 3,254 3,811 2,649 1,544 2,268 2,134 1,658 1,800
1,248 1,373 1,400 1,410 1,657 876 994 720 751 799
In Thousands of Short Tons
Steel for Converting & Processing2
Steel Service Center & D i stributors
10,502 10,440 10,245 11,263 9,975 7,599 7,753 7,462 7,201 6,798
24,153 23,751 27,124 27,800 27,751 21,439 22,537 23,887 22,828 24,266
All Other3
Total Shipments
15,775 95,084 14,690 97,494 15,676 100,878 17,241 105,858 16,741 102,420 32,840 106,201 35,093 109,624 26,086 99,448 29,160 99,191 35,905 105,628
All grades including carbon, alloy and stainless steel. 2 Net total after deducting shipments to reporting companines for conversion or resale. 3 I ncludes agricultural; bolts, nuts rivets & screws; forgings (other than automotive); shipbuilding & marine equipment; aircraft; mining, quarrying & lumbering; other domestic & commercial equipment machinery; ordnance & other direct military; and shipments of non-reporting companies. 4 Preliminary. Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI )
150
IRON AND STEEL Net Shipments of Steel Products1 in the United States
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 1
Cold Finished Bars
Rails & A cce ssories
1,786 1,782 1,685 1,809 1,780 1,775 1,756 1,369 1,404 1,426
631 630 722 875 938 646 783 630 789 739
Wire Tin Mill Drawn Products
788 654 652 619 725 611 579 481 733 684
4,137 3,942 4,108 4,057 3,714 3,771 3,742 3,202 3,419 3,513
Hot Rolled Bars
Structural Shapes Pipe & & Steel Piling Tubing
Reinforcing Bars
Hot Rolled Sheets
Cold Rolled Sheets
Carbon
Alloy
Stainless
8,556 9,043 8,672 8,855 8,864 8,200 8,898 8,349 8,769 9,230
7,088 6,902 6,999 8,153 8,189 8,078 7,901 7,032 6,581 6,486
4,966 5,437 5,895 6,548 5,409 4,772 5,385 5,377 4,809 4,597
4,929 5,048 5,762 6,188 5,909 6,183 6,893 6,976 6,359 7,970
15,654 16,978 17,466 18,221 15,715 17,740 19,236 18,866 19,243 22,218
13,016 12,347 14,089 13,322 13,185 13,874 14,802 12,352 12,673 13,485
88,505 90,485 93,019 97,509 94,536 98,694 102,141 92,314 92,518 98,772
4,859 5,115 5,948 6,282 5,847 5,421 5,379 4,789 4,779 4,901
1,720 1,894 1,912 2,067 2,037 2,086 2,104 1,837 1,894 1,952
10,943 11,329 11,456 12,439 13,481 14,870 14,917 14,310 14,944 15,221 2
All grades, including carbon, alloy and stainless steel.
Preliminary.
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Belgium
Brazil
China
France
Germany
8,178 8,974 9,199 8,628 8,077 8,730 8,472 8,472 7,732 8,053
23,982 25,177 25,090 23,978 25,336 25,111 25,060 27,723 27,441 27,781
87,390 97,410 105,293 107,225 115,110 118,600 125,390 131,010 155,540 170,750
12,679 13,293 12,860 12,108 13,424 13,603 13,854 13,621 12,004 13,217
26,970 29,923 29,828 30,012 30,939 30,162 27,931 30,846 29,184 29,419
Preliminary.
2
5,942 6,278 6,140 6,029 5,595 5,995 7,402 6,789 6,729 7,437
Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute (AI SI )
World Production of Pig Iron (Excludes Ferro-Alloys) Year
In Thousands of Short Tons
Sheet & Strip Plates (Cut & Galv. (Hot D i pped) Coils)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
India
Italy
Ja p a n
Russia
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
World Total
15,674 17,808 18,626 19,864 19,898 20,194 20,139 21,321 21,900 22,000
11,066 11,157 11,684 10,347 11,348 10,704 10,509 11,223 10,650 9,736
73,738 73,776 74,905 74,597 78,519 74,981 74,520 81,071 78,836 80,979
40,871 36,116 39,762 36,061 37,327 34,827 40,854 44,618 44,980 46,060
26,999 21,200 20,000 18,143 20,561 20,840 21,937 25,700 26,400 27,560
11,534 11,943 12,238 12,830 13,057 12,574 12,399 10,891 9,861 8,579
48,200 49,400 50,900 49,400 49,600 48,200 46,300 47,900 42,100 40,200
531,000 544,000 536,000 549,000 577,000 572,000 578,000 616,000 616,000 642,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Estimate.
Production of Pig Iron (Excludes Ferro-Alloys) in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,970 4,820 4,811 4,489 4,955 4,140 4,571 3,808 3,493 3,832
3,858 4,453 4,476 4,243 4,433 3,802 4,325 3,691 3,308 3,631
3,957 4,916 4,813 4,713 4,881 4,257 4,793 4,255 3,616 3,906
4,099 4,568 4,430 4,440 4,600 4,157 4,741 4,183 3,480 3,810
4,394 4,674 4,556 4,690 4,731 4,352 4,887 4,278 3,584 3,381
4,519 4,499 4,578 4,452 4,299 4,045 4,577 4,143 3,612 3,569
4,518 4,576 4,524 4,420 4,418 4,204 4,454 4,048 3,854 3,395
4,446 4,688 4,498 4,443 4,502 4,280 4,387 4,121 3,983 3,253
4,320 4,727 4,404 4,605 4,170 4,167 4,262 3,920 4,006 3,289
4,564 4,687 4,443 4,662 4,212 4,572 4,138 3,837 4,018 3,527
4,619 4,738 4,307 4,717 3,837 4,447 3,675 3,202 3,710 3,530
4,928 4,762 4,523 4,861 4,119 4,722 3,781 2,965 3,677 3,733
54,426 56,115 54,485 54,680 53,174 51,145 52,591 46,451 44,341 42,856
Preliminary.
Source: American I ron and Steel I nstitute
Salient Statistics of Ferrous Scrap and Pig Iron in the United States
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------------------------- Consumption: Ferrous Scrap & Pig Iron Charged To ------------------------------Mfg. of Pig Iron & Steel
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20021 1
Mfg. of Steel -------------- All Uses -------------------- Ingots & Castings ------- -------- & Misc. Users -------Castings Ferrous Pi g Pi g Pi g Grand Scrap Iron Total Scrap Iron Total (Scrap) Scrap Iron Total
53,084 53,801 56,000 56,000 58,000 58,000 56,000 59,000 57,000 56,000
48,092 50,257 51,000 50,000 51,000 49,000 48,000 49,000 47,000 42,000
101,176 104,057 107,000 106,000 109,000 107,000 104,000 108,000 104,000 98,000
Stocks -- Dec. 31
Iron Foundries
12,658 14,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000 12,000 11,000
676 1,000 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,200 1,100 1,500
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes tinplate and terneplate. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
3
13,334 15,000 14,100 14,100 14,200 14,200 14,100 14,200 13,100 12,500
1,900 2,000 2,000 2,700 1,800 2,000 1,900 2,200 2,200 1,800
68,000 70,000 72,000 72,000 73,000 73,000 71,000 74,000 71,000 69,000
48,777 51,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 50,000 49,000 50,000 48,000 44,000
116,777 121,000 124,000 124,000 125,000 123,000 120,000 124,000 119,000 113,000
Ferrous Scrap & Pig Imports of Scrap2
Exports ---- Iron at Consumers ---of Pi g Total Scrap3 Scrap Iron Stocks
1,390 9,805 1,740 8,813 2,090 10,400 2,600 8,440 2,870 8,930 3,060 5,570 3,670 5,520 3,350 5,760 2,630 7,440 3,130 8,950
3,725 4,100 4,200 5,200 5,500 5,300 5,500 5,300 4,900 5,100
220 400 620 600 510 570 720 800 790 800
3,945 4,500 4,820 5,800 6,010 5,870 6,220 6,100 5,690 5,900
Excludes used rails for rerolling and other uses and ships, boats, and other vessels for scrapping.
151
IRON AND STEEL
USD Per Ton ----- No. 1 Heavy, Chicago (Dec. 1900 - date) - - - No. 1 Heavy, Pittsburg (Jan. 1907 - date)
Consumption of Pig Iron in the U.S., by Type of Furnace or Equipment Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2 0 0 11 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
Open Hearth
Electric
Cupola
B a si c Oxygen Process
-------------------------------
519 1,700 1,700 2,200 2,400 4,000 3,100 2,900 2,700 3,200
292 520 500 530 400 590 520 530 500 520
47,848 49,138 50,000 49,000 50,000 46,000 45,000 47,000 45,000 40,000
Estimate.
W = Withheld.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Direct Casting
Total
34 4 W W W W W W W W
84 39 72 42 41 36 36 35 36 36
48,777 51,401 52,272 52,000 52,000 50,000 49,000 50,000 48,000 44,000
In Dollars Per Metric Ton
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
138.00 152.05 143.41 131.14 144.29 89.66 120.50 83.55 70.21 96.93
138.00 147.50 144.50 143.50 140.39 101.50 111.10 74.50 75.03 101.97
138.00 140.20 139.50 139.70 135.50 90.89 110.50 74.50 75.50 105.07
138.00 141.50 139.50 132.59 133.50 90.50 108.15 74.50 85.05 105.50
123.64 144.50 142.50 136.50 135.30 100.00 101.50 73.23 93.09 101.69
110.50 141.64 139.50 136.50 135.50 104.32 94.59 72.50 97.10 96.88
117.20 141.50 134.50 143.50 131.50 100.98 92.50 75.93 97.50 101.05
133.63 149.76 136.95 146.50 120.88 105.95 92.50 76.50 97.50 116.79
134.50 144.90 140.35 139.60 107.79 106.50 92.50 76.50 100.50 122.02
132.50 141.50 130.89 139.63 85.64 106.50 82.59 72.54 98.85 122.50
137.50 136.50 120.76 142.50 78.71 113.40 72.80 67.50 93.50 138.22
141.50 136.50 120.50 142.50 76.68 120.17 74.20 67.50 93.50 159.74
131.91 143.17 136.07 139.51 118.81 102.49 96.07 74.17 89.78 114.03
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
152
Ai r & Other Furnace
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Wholesale Price of No. 1 Heavy Melting Steel Scrap in Chicago Year
In Thousands of Metric Tons
IRON AND STEEL World Production of Iron Ore3 Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Gross Weight)
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
120,534 128,493 142,936 147,100 157,766 155,731 154,268 167,935 181,553 182,704
150,000 177,331 183,839 174,157 184,970 197,500 194,000 210,000 210,000 210,000
31,830 37,703 38,560 34,400 37,277 37,808 33,900 33,740 27,119 30,969
234,660 240,200 249,350 249,550 268,000 247,000 237,000 223,000 220,000 231,000
Preliminary.
2
Estimate.
3
Mauritania
Russia
South Africa
Sweden
Ukraine
United States
Venezuela
World Total
57,375 9,360 60,473 11,440 65,173 11,610 66,657 11,360 69,453 11,700 72,532 11,400 70,220 10,400 75,950 10,400 79,200 10,300 80,000 9,600
76,100 73,300 78,300 72,100 70,900 72,343 81,311 86,630 82,500 84,236
29,385 30,489 31,946 30,830 33,225 32,948 29,508 33,707 34,757 36,484
18,728 19,663 19,058 21,020 21,893 20,930 18,558 20,557 19,486 20,000
65,500 51,300 50,400 47,600 53,000 50,758 47,769 55,883 54,650 58,900
55,676 58,454 62,501 62,083 62,971 62,931 57,749 63,089 46,192 51,570
16,871 18,318 18,955 18,480 18,503 16,553 14,051 17,353 16,902 18,000
953,316 991,858 1,034,539 1,018,436 1,070,000 1,050,000 1,020,000 1,060,000 1,040,000 1,080,000
India
I ron ore, iron ore concentrates and iron ore agglomerates.
Salient Statistics of Iron Ore3 in the United States
Year
Net Import Reliance as a % of Apparent Consumption
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022
14 18 14 14 14 17 17 19 15 11
In Thousands of Metric Tons ----- Stocks -- Dec. 31 -----
---------- Production ----------
Total
55,661 58,215 60,898 62,132 63,000 62,900 57,410 62,983 46,100 51,500
L a ke Other Superior Regions
54,814 57,848 60,462 61,748 62,600 62,591 57,410 62,983 46,100 51,500
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Shipments
848 367 435 383 327 327 NA NA NA NA
56,300 57,600 61,100 62,200 62,800 63,200 58,500 61,000 50,600 51,500
Average Value Value $ MIllion $ at Mine (at Mine) Per Ton
1,380.0 1,410.0 1,700.0 1,750.0 1,860.0 1,970.0 1,550.0 1,560.0 1,210.0 1,340.0
24.50 24.49 28.00 28.07 29.60 31.14 26.47 25.57 23.87 26.04
Mines
C on suming Plants
L a ke Erie D o cks
Imports
Exports
2,500 2,790 4,240 4,650 4,860 6,020 5,710 9,150 3,800 3,210
16,500 16,300 17,100 18,800 20,200 20,500 17,900 16,800 12,300 12,400
2,290 2,230 2,140 2,260 2,890 4,080 2,770 2,860 1,960 1,820
14,100 17,500 17,600 18,400 18,500 16,900 14,300 15,700 10,700 12,500
5,060 4,980 5,270 6,260 6,340 6,000 6,120 6,150 5,610 6,750
Value Con- Million $ sumption Imports
76,800 80,200 83,100 79,600 79,500 78,200 75,100 76,500 67,300 59,000
419.0 499.0 491.0 556.0 551.0 517.0 399.0 420.0 293.0 313.0
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 Usable iron ore exclusive of ore containing 5% or more manganese and includes byproduct ore. NA = Not available. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
U.S. Imports (for Consumption) of Iron Ore2
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Year
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Mauritania
Peru
Sweden
Venezuela
Total
254 675 570 511 742 807 694 755 576 567
2,872 3,610 4,810 5,170 4,970 5,980 5,540 6,090 4,260 5,750
7,442 10,073 9,050 9,800 10,000 8,520 6,860 7,990 4,530 5,540
68 134 57 164 228 48 69 135 711 319
206 124 317 275 -------------------
1 2 54 43 252 126 63 40 71 86
60 45 47 48 149 373 421 250 70 44
3,170 2,778 2,500 2,140 2,090 970 327 349 87 ----
14,097 17,466 17,600 18,400 18,600 16,900 14,300 15,700 10,700 12,500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2 0 0 21 1
Preliminary.
2
I ncluding agglomerates.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Total1 Iron Ore Stocks in the United States, at End of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
19,013 20,316 22,277 25,913 27,977 29,631 24,885 27,583 16,980 17,640
17,816 19,361 20,744 25,262 26,317 28,463 24,810 26,076 15,970 19,790
15,950 18,193 19,779 24,745 24,039 28,614 23,556 24,570 14,660 21,100
14,880 18,293 20,104 24,812 25,251 28,292 23,714 23,800 14,920 18,560
15,251 19,371 23,426 25,001 25,576 29,151 24,032 23,600 15,680 17,690
16,592 20,905 21,822 25,620 26,197 29,021 24,613 21,664 16,090 17,880
17,864 22,336 22,445 26,076 27,605 28,857 24,993 21,010 16,120 17,950
18,931 23,632 23,663 26,971 29,037 27,840 26,278 20,440 16,080 18,360
20,554 23,414 24,116 27,562 30,301 26,506 26,815 20,050 15,520 17,220
20,760 24,389 24,866 28,029 30,095 25,528 27,530 19,660 15,790 15,790
21,552 24,123 25,465 28,053 30,199 25,290 27,987 18,690 16,740
21,339 23,576 25,701 27,912 30,624 26,371 28,779 18,000 17,410
All stocks at mines, furnace yards and at U.S. docks.
2
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
153
Lard Lard is the layer of fat found along the back and underneath the skin of a hog. The hog’s fat is purified by washing it with water, melting it under constant heat, and straining it several times. Lard is an important byproduct of the meatpacking industry. It is valued highly as cooking oil because there is very little smoke when it is heated. However, demand for lard in cooking is declining because of the trend toward healthier eating. Lard is also used for medicinal purposes such as ointments, plasters, liniments, and occasionally as a laxative for children. Lard production is directly proportional to commercial hog production, meaning the largest producers of hogs are the largest producers of lard. Prices – The average wholesale price of lard in early 2003 fluctuated in the range of 16.7-18.6 cents/pound. That was higher than the average prices seen in the past 4 years but below the recent average yearly high price of 23.39 cents
World Production of Lard Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-11 2001-22 2002-33 1
Preliminary.
seen in 1997. Supply – World production of lard was 7.016 million metric tons in the latest reporting year, up 2.3% from the 2001/2 level of 6.858 million tons. China is by far the largest consumer of lard at 3.023 million metric tons, followed by the US (506 million tons), Germany (427 million tons), and the former USSR (343 million tons). US production of lard in 2001/2 was 1,058 million pounds, with about 963 million pounds of that production going to domestic use and about 103.0 million pounds to exports (down from 174 million in 2000/1). Demand – US consumption of lard was on track to hit about 330 million pounds in 2003, which would be up 9% from the 2002 level of 303.2 million pounds. Still, that is much lower than the levels over 400 million pounds seen prior to 1998.
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Poland
Romania
Spain
United States
Former USSR
World Total
181.6 194.3 197.4 214.3 234.3 250.5 262.1 270.3 277.8
86.3 83.0 83.1 91.5 99.3 109.2 113.7 119.7 121.7
1,931.8 2,136.6 2,400.2 2,624.8 2,665.5 2,771.4 2,832.1 2,918.6 3,022.6
153.2 154.6 157.3 162.3 167.4 164.7 155.7 157.1 159.3
404.8 405.6 396.5 413.4 444.5 423.5 415.2 422.4 426.6
191.3 198.5 197.6 194.0 201.3 200.9 195.9 199.3 202.5
83.8 76.3 74.1 67.9 66.4 65.1 62.3 61.8 63.5
267.9 284.9 259.4 266.4 270.1 254.7 240.1 244.1 249.6
106.9 105.1 99.1 96.9 92.9 81.1 72.7 69.5 69.0
196.7 206.5 211.8 238.5 258.1 262.0 264.9 266.9 276.8
471.2 449.3 437.0 478.9 501.7 491.6 488.6 508.1 506.0
414.0 385.0 351.5 339.7 337.4 346.3 334.9 338.9 342.9
5,640.7 5,860.4 6,065.0 6,406.1 6,597.9 6,680.1 6,690.3 6,857.6 7,016.0
2
Estimate.
3
Forecast.
Source: The Oil World
Supply and Distribution of Lard in the United States
Year
1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-00 2000-1 2001-21 2002-32
In Millions of Pounds
------------------------ Supply ------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------ Disappearance -----------------------------------------------------------P er Total Baking Capita & Frying MarD i sa p Direct ProStocks Total (Lbs.) pearance Use Fats garine2 Exports duction Oct. 1 Supply Domestic
1,052.4 1,012.6 979.0 1,064.7 1,106.1 1,091.0 1,058.0 1,058.0 1,083.0
34.4 24.3 22.7 19.9 40.4 20.8 27.0 18.0 18.0
1,089.0 1,038.8 1,002.9 1,086.7 1,148.4 1,097.8 1,087.0 1,080.0 1,109.0
1 Preliminary. 2 Forecast. 3 I ncludes edible tallow. U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
924.4 921.8 879.6 924.6 987.6 917.8 895.0 963.0 1,012.0
332.2 295.9 262.0 285.0 250.0 234.0 NA NA
NA = not avaliable.
43.0 33.0 15.0 17.0 26.0 14.0 5.0 14.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
154
1,064.7 1,016.1 982.9 1,046.4 1,127.5 1,072.8 1,069.0 1,066.0 1,096.0
561.9 593.0 602.4 623.3 654.0 675.0 644.0 661.0 706.0
3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.4
Source: Economic Research Service,
Consumption of Lard (Edible and Inedible) in the United States Year
140.4 94.3 103.3 121.8 139.9 155.0 174.0 103.0 84.0
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
37.5 30.5 26.5 34.1 34.6 27.3 27.8 26.4 22.6
34.7 35.4 30.5 29.9 30.2 25.7 22.2 26.1 22.3
41.2 36.7 31.0 31.1 28.8 29.1 28.3 21.8 23.4
36.2 46.9 36.5 29.6 31.1 23.3 24.5 26.7 21.4
42.2 36.8 39.9 28.5 30.5 30.3 22.5 24.8 23.3
44.4 31.4 36.2 35.9 32.9 27.6 23.3 21.2 24.0
34.9 32.6 36.1 33.0 28.9 24.4 21.8 22.9 23.0
35.9 33.9 35.0 33.0 33.0 31.3 27.1 26.4 21.4
35.9 30.9 37.4 37.1 29.2 31.1 23.2 23.6 22.5
40.1 34.5 39.0 37.7 31.2 32.6 27.9 26.4 24.3
38.9 34.7 41.5 38.9 31.3 29.6 26.7 28.1 20.2
36.8 33.6 40.4 33.9 30.3 31.7 24.4 28.7 21.0
458.7 417.9 429.8 402.7 372.1 343.9 299.8 303.2 269.5
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
LARD
Cents Per Pound ----- Chicago (Jan. 1910 - date)
Average Wholesale Price of Lard, Loose, Tank Cars, in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
In Cents Per Pound
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
14.50 21.21 20.52 24.93 19.09 16.89 15.66 13.57 12.69 18.61
14.62 21.13 18.17 25.47 16.03 13.91 12.38 11.92 12.50 17.11
15.35 19.25 18.01 24.69 17.36 11.98 11.99 11.07 13.07 16.85
15.74 18.34 18.67 20.82 17.64 13.12 11.96 12.09 12.42 16.72
15.75 18.25 20.47 20.94 18.66 13.43 12.68 11.84 11.38 17.29
16.25 19.02 22.61 22.68 19.38 12.98 12.64 13.38 14.64 18.90
17.24 20.25 24.55 23.83 17.93 11.87 10.32 18.05 14.60 18.93
18.91 21.30 26.30 23.95 18.65 13.89 10.35 24.11 15.00 20.08
20.14 21.48 27.09 23.14 16.58 17.44 11.14 22.00 15.21 23.98
20.39 20.90 23.11 23.41 17.39 20.55 13.04 13.04 14.39 27.50
20.35 21.38 19.70 23.97 17.60 17.74 12.06 13.18 16.28 26.40
20.91 21.35 22.17 22.85 16.27 16.12 12.14 14.92 18.42 25.18
17.51 20.32 21.78 23.39 17.72 14.99 12.20 14.93 14.22 20.63
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA)
United States Cold Storage Holdings of all Lard1, on First of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 1
In Millions of Pounds
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
37.7 40.6 38.4 18.9 22.2 28.4 26.7 16.0 13.2 10.5
38.0 50.3 38.6 16.3 30.1 30.4 27.8 14.9 18.0 14.0
31.8 46.4 25.8 18.5 38.3 30.6 29.2 14.9 16.4 19.6
28.8 43.0 28.8 19.2 42.5 34.0 30.1 17.9 16.5 18.7
25.1 36.8 21.5 18.9 41.6 27.1 20.2 13.7 20.3 16.5
27.4 27.1 23.2 18.7 47.6 39.9 22.5 13.1 22.4 13.5
27.0 25.8 23.7 23.0 43.7 30.7 18.9 10.3 18.9 11.9
25.5 22.1 30.5 23.2 44.8 25.5 19.3 12.4 18.3 9.7
29.7 30.2 20.7 21.5 38.8 29.4 17.3 11.8 12.0 8.4
34.4 24.3 22.7 19.9 40.4 20.8 17.4 13.6 10.5 9.3
34.0 19.9 20.1 21.3 34.8 19.1 16.3 13.0 14.6 10.1
35.8 21.6 18.8 19.7 26.3 22.8 16.8 11.7 11.3 12.4
Stocks in factories and warehouses (except that in hands of retailers).
2
Preliminary.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
155
Lead Lead is a dense, toxic, bluish-gray metallic element, and is the heaviest stable element. Lead was one of the first known metals. The ancients used lead in face powders, rouges, mascaras, paints, condiments, wine preservatives, and water supply plumbing. The Romans were slowly poisoned from lead because of its diverse daily usage. Lead is usually found in ore with zinc, silver, and most often copper. The most common lead ore is galena, containing 86.6% lead. Cerussite and angleside are other common varieties of lead. More than half of the lead currently used comes from recycling. Lead is used in building construction, bullets and shot, tank and pipe lining, storage batteries, and electric cable sheathing. Lead is used extensively as a protective shielding for radioactive material, i.e., X-ray apparatus, because of its high density and nuclear properties. Lead is also part of solder, pewter, and fusible alloys. Lead futures and options trade at the London Metal Exchange (LME). The lead futures contract calls for the delivery of 25 metric tons of at least 99.970% purity lead ingots (pigs). The contract is priced in terms of US dollars per metric ton. Lead first started trading on the LME in 1903. Prices – Lead prices took off in the latter half of 2003 along with the rest of the basic metals complex. Lead prices between 2000 and the middle of 2003 bounced back and forth within a range of approximately $400 to $520 per metric ton. However, in mid-2003, lead prices entered a major bull market and rallied from the $500 area all the way up to approximately $850 by the end of the year, a rally of about 70%.
Supply – World smelter production of lead (both primary and secondary) in 2002 fell –1.2% to 6.390 million metric tons from 6.470 million metric tons in 2001, but was only modestly lower than the record production level of 6.580 million metric tons in 2000. The world’s largest smelter producers of lead (both primary and secondary) in 2002 were the US with 21.6% of world production, followed by China with 20%, Germany with 6.1%, and the UK with 5.8%. US mine production of recoverable lead fell to a 6-year low of 440,000 metric tons in 2002 from 454,000 in 2001. Missouri was responsible for 97% of US production, with the remainder produced mainly by Idaho and Montana. Lead recovered from scrap in the US (secondary production) fell to a 6-year low of 1.106 million metric tons in 2002 from 1.113 million metric tons in 2001. That is more than twice the amount of lead produced in the US from mines (primary production). The value of US refined lead production in 2002 was $252 million, down from $279 million in 2001 and well below the record high of $668 million posted back in 1979. Demand – US lead consumption in 2002 rose slightly to 1.673 million metric tons from 1.652 million metric tons in 2001, and that was only slightly below the record consumption level of 1.680 million metric tons posted in 1999. Trade – The US relied on imports for 18% of its lead consumption in 2002. US imports of lead pigs and bars in 2002 fell to a 9-year low of 210,000 metric tons. US lead exports in 2002 were comprised by ore concentrate (241,000 metric tons), scrap (106,000 metric tons), unwrought lead (31,400 metric tons), and wrought lead (11,700 metric tons).
World Smelter (Primary and Secondary) Production of Lead Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
Belgium4
Canada3
China2
France
Germany
Italy
Ja p a n
Mexico3
243.0 237.0 241.0 228.0 238.0 206.0 272.8 251.8 303.0 211.0
131.1 123.5 122.0 125.0 110.8 91.5 103.2 118.0 96.0 96.0
217.0 251.6 281.4 309.4 271.4 265.5 266.4 284.8 230.9 251.3
412.0 467.9 608.0 706.0 707.0 757.0 918.0 1,100.0 1,200.0 1,250.0
258.7 260.5 296.7 302.8 302.3 318.0 279.0 258.0 238.0 204.0
334.2 331.7 311.2 238.1 329.2 380.2 373.6 415.0 374.0 390.0
182.8 205.9 180.4 209.8 211.6 199.3 215.3 235.0 203.0 205.0
309.5 292.2 287.6 287.4 296.8 302.1 293.4 311.7 302.4 280.4
188.0 171.0 176.0 160.0 178.0 173.0 121.0 153.0 154.0 155.0
2
Estimate.
3
Refinded & bullion.
4
I ncludes scrap.
Year
Ammun- Bearing ition Metals
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1
65,100 62,400 70,900 52,100 52,400 52,800 58,300 63,700 53,600 57,600
4,830 5,560 6,490 4,350 2,490 2,210 1,570 1,490 837 406
P i p e s, Traps & Bends2
5,740 3,370 2,210 1,810 1,860 3,130 2,020 2,010 2,370 2,250
Cable Calking Covering Lead
17,165 16,000 5,640 W 4,930 4,630 2,410 W W W
961 764 935 767 1,390 1,350 971 1,140 927 1,060
United Spain Kingdom3
123.0 140.0 80.0 86.0 74.9 90.0 96.0 120.0 98.0 98.0
363.8 352.5 320.7 345.6 391.0 348.9 348.1 337.2 366.0 370.0
United States
World Total
1,230 1,280 1,390 1,400 1,450 1,450 1,460 1,470 1,390 1,380
5,420 5,360 5,590 5,630 5,880 5,970 6,170 6,580 6,470 6,390
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Consumption of Lead in the United States, by Products
1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Australia3
In Metric Tons
Other Casting Metal Metals Products3
Total Other Oxides4
Sheet Lead
18,500 18,900 18,100 18,900 34,000 32,600 34,300 35,100 31,800 34,800
63,600 62,700 61,700 62,100 67,000 53,400 58,200 52,400 43,900 51,900
21,200 21,500 27,900 19,400 19,100 15,500 15,400 23,800 22,400 25,600
5,360 5,330 5,220 5,220 7,570 8,160 7,130 25,800 17,100 24,200
--- Storage Battery --- Brass Grids, and Total Solder Post, etc. Oxides Bronze Consumption
14,400 12,200 16,200 9,020 9,580 10,900 13,100 11,500 6,120 6,450
677,000 797,000 711,000 635,000 634,000 685,000 765,000 796,000 655,000 554,000
374,000 425,000 618,000 706,000 761,000 742,000 707,000 690,000 694,000 641,000
5,750 6,320 5,260 5,460 4,410 3,460 3,940 3,670 2,590 2,730
1,290,000 1,450,000 1,560,000 1,540,000 1,620,000 1,630,000 1,680,000 1,720,000 1,550,000 1,440,000
Preliminary. 2 I ncluding building. 3 I ncluding terne metal, type metal, and lead consumerd in foil, collapsible tubes, annealing, plating, galvanizing and fishing weights. 4 I ncludes paints, glass and ceramic products, and other pigments and chemicals. W = Withheld proprietary data. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
156
LEAD Salient Statistics of Lead in the United States
Year
Net Import Reliance Production as a % of Apparent ---- of Refined Lead From ---Con- Domestic Foreign Total Ores3 sumption Ores3 Primary
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022
15 19 17 17 14 21 20 24 20 18
310.7 328.0 374.0 326.0 343.0 337.0 350.0 341.0 290.0 262.0
24.9 23.4 W W W W W W W W
Total Value of Refined Million $
335.6 351.4 374.0 326.0 343.0 337.0 350.0 341.0 290.0 262.0
234.4 288.0 348.0 351.0 352.0 336.0 337.0 328.0 279.0 252.0
In Thousands of Metric Tons
----- Secondary Lead Recovered ----As Soft Lead
In Antimonial Lead
In Other Alloys
444.0 527.0 584.0 625.0 663.0 667.0 635.0 651.0 734.0 754.0
417.0 371.0 400.0 420.0 411.0 417.0 444.0 428.0 291.0 289.0
17.0 16.1 19.2 9.2 14.2 16.1 18.1 36.8 75.9 71.9
Average Price Total Value of - Stocks, Dec. 31 - - Cents Per Pound Secondary ConNew Total Million $ Primary sumer4 York London5
893.0 931.0 1,020.0 1,070.0 1,110.0 1,120.0 1,110.0 1,130.0 1,100.0 1,120.0
625.0 763.0 951.0 1,150.0 1,130.0 1,110.0 1,070.0 1,090.0 1,060.0 1,070.0
14.3 9.3 14.2 8.1 11.9 10.9 12.3 18.6 W W
80.5 68.8 79.4 72.1 89.1 77.9 78.7 106.0 100.0 105.0
31.74 37.17 42.28 48.83 46.54 45.27 43.72 43.57 43.64 43.56
18.42 24.83 28.08 31.22 28.29 23.96 22.78 20.57 21.58 20.52
1
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 And base bullion. 4 Also at secondary smelters. 5 LME data in dollars per metric ton beginning July 1993. W = Withheld Proprietary data. E = Net exporter. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
United States Foreign Trade of Lead
In Thousands of Metric Tons
------------- Imports for Consumption ------------ --------------------- General Imports From: --------------------Ores, Ore, Flue ReFlue claimed Ash Dust or -------- Dust & Matte -------- --------- Pigs & Bars --------& Re- Fume & Base Pigs & Scrap, Value etc. Million $ Australia Canada Bars Peru Canada Mexico Peru Scrap sidues Mattes Bullion
------------------------- Exports -------------------------
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022
Unwrought Wrought Lead3 Lead4
Ore Concentrate
41.8 38.7 65.5 59.7 42.2 72.4 93.5 117.0 181.0 241.0
51.4 48.2 48.2 44.0 37.4 24.1 23.4 21.4 17.0 31.4
7.1 5.3 9.0 16.7 15.9 15.4 13.9 27.2 17.7 11.7
54.1 88.1 105.0 85.3 88.4 99.2 117.0 71.6 108.0 106.0
1
1.7 20.6 8.0 19.4 16.8 9.0 1.4 11.3 14.2 ----
Preliminary. 2 Estimate. 3 And lead alloys. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
4
0.5 0.5 2.6 6.6 17.8 32.7 12.3 31.2 2.2 0.0
---0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 -------
195.6 230.8 264.0 268.0 265.0 267.0 311.0 356.0 271.0 210.0 5
Blocks, pigs, etc.
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 6
---0.0 10.2 2.6
99.4 146.6 191.7 217.0 200.3 191.9 196.5 217.1 166.8 124.9
Formerly drosses & flue dust.
Annual Mine Production of Recoverable Lead in the United States Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 20011 20022 1
Preliminary.
2
Year
1
Preliminary.
6
55.7 0.2 ---4.4 0.8 6.5 1.2 6
-------
13.6 ---0.1 ---3.4 18.5 8.8 10.8 -------
Less than 1/2 unit.
130.8 159.0 182.0 192.0 186.0 181.0 198.0 216.0 167.0 172.0
40.3 31.9 54.3 56.9 70.4 63.6 27.2 18.4 12.4 7.5
18.3 25.6 22.1 17.1 6.4 11.4 6.9 1.8 2.3 ----
NA = Not avaliable.
In Metric Tons
Total
Idaho
Missouri
Montana
Other States
Missouri's % of Total
353,607 363,443 386,000 426,000 448,000 481,000 503,000 449,000 454,000 440,000
W W W W W W W W W W
276,569 290,738 359,000 397,000 412,000 439,000 464,000 410,000 423,000 428,000
W 9,940 8,350 7,970 9,230 7,310 7,950 W W W
77,800 63,100 18,200 21,200 26,600 35,100 31,200 38,700 30,900 12,300
78% 80% 93% 93% 92% 91% 92% 91% 93% 97%
Estimate.
W = Withheld, included in Other States.
NA = Not Avaliable.
Mine Production of Recoverable Lead in the United States 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
---0.5 1.5 ------2.4 0.1 ----------
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
27.6 29.6 36.9 36.7 37.4 41.2 35.1 42.9 39.5 39.0
28.8 30.3 36.4 36.7 35.4 42.1 36.7 37.8 35.5 34.9
33.0 35.2 35.6 37.2 37.8 44.4 43.0 39.4 41.2 38.5
31.3 28.9 35.9 38.6 37.3 43.1 37.5 33.7 36.1 36.2
32.4 32.7 37.5 38.6 35.7 41.7 37.4 35.0 39.3 38.8
29.1 34.8 33.8 35.1 34.7 42.6 37.8 32.2 36.1 39.2
29.4 32.5 35.6 33.4 34.3 47.2 33.0 38.2 35.0 41.3
30.4 33.5 34.1 33.7 35.6 43.6 36.8 39.6 39.6 38.0
31.2 29.9 26.9 34.4 36.1 41.5 36.8 32.4 33.2 38.3
28.0 34.1 35.2 35.4 40.3 41.2 32.4 39.5 34.8 37.2
31.7 31.6 33.6 31.7 37.8 37.8 38.8 32.1 34.1 37.7
29.9 32.1 35.7 32.8 39.2 38.1 36.9 35.4 34.2
363.4 385.0 426.0 448.0 449.0 505.0 447.0 450.0 438.6 457.2
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
157
LEAD
Cents Per Pound ----- Pig, New York (Jan. 1910 - date) - - - Scrap, Smelters’ Heavy, Soft, New York (Dec. 1985 - date)
Average Price of Pig Lead, U.S. Primary Producers (Common Corroding)1 Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
34.00 44.00 48.00 50.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 23.14
34.00 44.00 49.50 50.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 24.65
34.00 42.00 50.96 48.70 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 23.81
34.00 42.00 52.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 23.13
34.00 42.00 52.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 24.56
35.73 42.00 52.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 24.77
37.70 42.00 50.29 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 26.93
38.00 43.65 49.18 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 26.05
40.00 44.00 50.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 27.23
42.00 44.00 50.00 48.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 30.16
43.70 46.10 50.00 48.00 45.47 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 32.09
44.00 48.00 50.00 48.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 35.46
37.59 43.65 50.33 48.39 47.54 45.00 45.00 45.00 45.00 26.83
New York Delivery.
Source: American Metal Market (AMM)
Refiners Production1 of Lead in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 1
In Cents Per Pound
In Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
29,908 32,100 34,700 28,800 29,200 NA NA NA NA NA
30,685 29,100 30,400 28,500 25,900 NA NA NA NA NA
31,420 32,600 30,900 31,900 30,000 NA NA NA NA NA
29,059 32,300 28,600 30,400 29,700 NA NA NA NA NA
31,588 32,600 27,500 30,800 29,500 NA NA NA NA NA
31,707 28,300 21,700 28,700 20,300 NA NA NA NA NA
30,661 31,000 25,500 25,900 28,900 NA NA NA NA NA
27,335 29,300 24,700 28,000 NA NA NA NA NA NA
31,185 30,600 25,400 21,600 NA NA NA NA NA NA
32,874 34,200 25,300 30,500 NA NA NA NA NA NA
29,301 30,100 26,100 29,000 NA NA NA NA NA NA
30,447 31,500 25,500 28,700 NA NA NA NA NA
366,170 374,000 326,000 343,000 337,000 350,000 341,000 290,000 262,000
Represents refined lead produced from domestic ores by primary smelters plus small amounts of secondary material passing through these smelters. I ncludes GSA metal purchased for remelt. 2 Preliminary. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
158
LEAD Total Stocks of Lead1 in the United States at Refiners, at End of Month Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20032 1
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
11,964 8,200 15,000 8,460 13,000 NA NA NA NA NA
12,633 9,750 15,000 11,800 15,900 NA NA NA NA NA
12,048 11,500 15,000 21,400 18,700 NA NA NA NA NA
11,445 14,500 15,000 19,900 20,900 NA NA NA NA NA
11,598 16,700 15,000 15,000 11,400 NA NA NA NA NA
10,251 16,200 19,600 10,900 11,400 NA NA NA NA NA
12,368 21,300 19,900 6,530 13,700 NA NA NA NA NA
9,256 14,000 14,200 7,790 NA NA NA NA NA NA
8,897 12,800 12,200 5,370 NA NA NA NA NA NA
10,659 9,820 7,060 7,310 NA NA NA NA NA NA
9,060 9,830 7,830 8,710 NA NA NA NA NA NA
9,271 14,200 8,160 11,900 10,900 12,300 18,600 NA NA
Primary refineries.
2
Preliminary.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Total1 Lead Consumption in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2 1
In Thousands of Metric Tons
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
107.0 119.0 107.0 139.0 116.0 128.0 139.0 145.0 132.0 134.0
115.2 119.0 100.0 138.0 115.0 129.0 139.0 135.0 131.0 129.0
112.8 119.0 106.0 138.0 119.0 130.0 139.0 133.0 133.0 126.0
111.6 109.0 111.0 140.0 128.0 127.0 139.0 130.0 142.0 120.0
113.5 110.0 113.0 137.0 127.0 128.0 140.0 138.0 142.0 121.0
115.2 113.0 106.0 141.0 129.0 130.0 140.0 136.0 144.0 121.0
114.3 115.0 104.0 116.0 128.0 137.0 135.0 135.0 143.0 121.0
115.5 105.0 146.0 119.0 128.0 136.0 141.0 136.0 145.0 122.0
115.9 115.0 140.0 122.0 129.0 141.0 139.0 142.0 141.0 123.0
121.2 116.0 147.0 123.0 129.0 136.0 139.0 146.0 145.0 127.0
118.7 118.0 163.0 117.0 134.0 140.0 136.0 138.0 142.0 120.0
113.0 116.0 143.0 117.0 125.0 133.0 132.0 138.0 133.0
1,384 1,370 1,530 1,600 1,550 1,680 1,660 1,652 1,673 1,488
Represents total consumption of primary & secondary lead as metal, in chemicals, or in alloys.
Lead Recovered from Scrap in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
Preliminary.
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2 1
2
Preliminary. Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
In Thousands of Metric Tons (Lead Content)
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
74.0 82.5 75.7 88.0 95.0 89.5 91.0 90.3 89.3 95.7
76.0 80.8 76.2 89.8 92.0 89.1 88.0 90.4 82.3 83.6
84.2 84.4 84.2 91.7 92.6 88.9 91.1 86.7 88.2 86.2
81.7 72.8 83.7 86.0 94.1 91.0 91.4 92.6 93.1 85.1
81.1 73.7 84.7 88.2 92.5 90.2 90.5 93.7 93.9 94.0
79.0 72.5 80.7 85.7 89.7 91.1 91.3 93.6 93.6 94.8
78.9 79.9 81.2 86.7 89.3 81.3 88.6 90.4 88.0 95.7
79.8 71.5 89.0 94.7 95.7 91.9 95.1 95.1 96.1 93.9
78.4 82.3 92.1 97.3 94.4 91.6 94.0 93.9 93.3 93.3
76.4 80.0 98.8 96.2 95.0 93.5 96.0 96.7 97.5 102.0
81.0 82.3 97.3 95.2 95.1 91.4 95.4 94.6 95.0 93.7
80.4 82.1 93.2 91.7 90.7 93.1 93.7 94.6 95.7
949.0 945.0 1,100.0 1,110.0 1,110.0 1,110.0 1,110.0 1,112.6 1,106.0 1,110.5
Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
D o mestic S h ip men ts1 o f L ead in th e U n ited S tates, b y R efin ers Year
In Metric Tons
Jan.
In Thousands of Short Tons
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Total
33.5 29.3 39.3 35.4 31.3 24.6 35.9 36.5 37.2 31.5
29.5 28.5 33.9 33.8 23.9 23.6 32.8 30.3 32.4 27.8
39.2 32.2 39.1 34.3 30.4 32.5 35.2 35.1 29.5 24.7
33.0 35.7 33.5 39.8 26.3 30.0 32.7 31.1 30.2 35.2
41.4 45.1 38.4 33.9 25.6 31.3 34.7 33.7 29.4 39.2
44.7 36.4 32.9 26.0 27.2 35.1 36.7 31.9 26.7 36.1
32.0 32.8 32.6 31.8 27.3 28.9 31.6 28.6 27.7 33.4
34.7 41.5 38.9 37.9 28.7 34.0 33.4 40.3 33.5 29.4
33.7 40.0 36.6 35.1 26.3 35.5 34.8 34.9 30.1 26.4
43.0 44.2 38.9 35.7 28.5 35.5 34.3 40.9 33.5 31.5
38.5 40.2 37.9 28.7 26.3 31.7 34.0 33.2 28.1 30.4
35.5 31.1 31.7 26.7 21.7 33.5 33.3 29.8 27.6 28.1
438.7 437.1 433.7 399.2 323.5 376.2 409.3 406.4 366.0 377.8
I ncludes GSA metal.
2
P reliminary.
S ource: American Met al Market (AMM)
159
Lumber & Plywood Humans have utilized lumber for construction for thousands of years, but due to the heaviness of timber and the manual methods of harvesting, large-scale lumbering didn’t occur until the mechanical advances of the Industrial Revolution. Total world harvest, including softwood and hardwood, is currently around 4 billion cubic meters per year. Lumber is produced from both hardwood and softwood. Hardwood lumber comes from deciduous trees that have broad leaves. Most hardwood lumber is used for miscellaneous industrial applications, primarily wood pallets, and includes oak, gum, maple, and ash. Hardwood species with beautiful colors and patterns are used for such high-grade products as furniture, flooring, paneling, and cabinets and include black walnut, black cherry, and red oak. Wood from cone-bearing trees is called softwood, regardless of its actual hardness. Most lumber from the US is softwood. Softwoods, such as southern yellow pine, Douglas fir, ponderosa pine, and true firs, are primarily used as structural lumber such as 2 x 4s and 2 x 6s, poles, paper and cardboard. Plywood consists of several thin layers of veneer bonded together with adhesives. The veneer sheets are layered so that the grain of one sheet is perpendicular to that of the next, which makes plywood exceptionally strong for its weight. Most plywood has from thee to nine layers of wood. Plywood manufacturers use both hard and soft woods, although hardwoods serve primarily for appearance and are not as strong as those made from softwoods. Plywood is primarily used in construction, particularly for floors, roofs, walls, and doors. Homebuilding and remodeling account for two-thirds of US lumber consumption. The price of lumber and plywood is highly correlated with the strength of the US home-building market. The forest and wood products industry is dominated by Weyerhaeuser Company (ticker symbol WY), which has nearly $20 billion in annual sales and a market capitalization of over $13 billion. Weyerhaeuser is a forest products conglomerate that engages not only in growing and harvesting timber, but also in the production and distribution of forest products, real estate development, and construction of single-family homes. Forest products include wood products, pulp and paper, and containerboard. The timberland segment of the business manages 7.2 million acres of company-owned land and 800,000 acres of leased commercial forestlands in North America. The company’s Canadian division has renewable, long-term licenses on about
35 million acres of forestland in five Canadian provinces. In order to maximize its long-term yield from its acreage, Weyerhaeuser engages in a number of forest management activities such as extensive planting, suppression of nonmerchantable species, thinning, fertilization, and operational pruning. Lumber futures and options are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The CME’s lumber futures contract calls for the delivery of 111,000 board feet (one 73 foot rail car) of random length 8 to 12 foot 2 x 4s, the type used in construction. The contract is priced in terms of dollars per thousand board feet. Prices – Lumber futures prices rallied through most of 2003, with the market posting a new 2-1/2 year high late in the year. Lumber prices closed 2003 at $312.60, up 44% from the 2002 close of $217.70. The market was driven by the extremely strong US home-building market seen all year. Despite the rally, the market remained slightly below the 3-year high of $376.00 posted in May 2001 and well below the record high of $493.50 posted in March 1993. Supply – US softwood lumber production in 2003 was on track to fall 1.2% to 35.607 billion board feet from 36.025 billion in 2002. The US leads the world in the production of industrial round wood with 405 million cubic meters of production in 2002, followed by Canada with 197 million cubic meters and Russia with 128 million cubic meters. The US also leads the world in the production of plywood with 15.494 million cubic meters of production in 2002, followed by Canada with 2.475 million cubic meters and Russia with 1.808 million cubic meters. Trade – US imports of softwood in 2002 rose to 20.986 billion board feet from 20.075 billion board feet in 2001. US imports of hardwood in 2002 rose to 739 million board feet from 645 million board feet in 2001. Total US lumber imports in 2002 rose to 21.774 billion board feet from 20.737 billion in 2001. The majority of US imports were of spruce with 1.046 billion board feet in 2002, and cedar came in second with 648 million board feet. US exports of softwood in 2002 fell to 848 million board feet from 968 million board feet in 2001. US exports of hardwood in 2002 fell to 1.219 billion board feet from 1.222 billion board feet in 2001. Total US exports in 2002 fell to 2.312 billion board feet from 2.351 billion board feet in 2001. The largest US export of softwood was of southern pine with 205 million board feet in 2002, followed by Douglas fir with 111 million board feet.
World Production of Industrial Roundw ood by Selected Countries Austria
Canada
Czech Repulic
9,707 11,701 11,346 11,812 11,902 10,858 10,988 10,416 10,562 11,809
169,770 177,346 183,027 177,943 183,531 173,901 190,846 197,373 197,373 197,373
9,706 11,172 11,716 11,882 12,881 13,171 13,363 13,501 13,364 13,534
Year
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1 20022 1
Preliminary.
160
2
Estimate.
In Thousands of Cubic Meters
Finland
France
Germany
Poland
Romania
Russia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
United States
38,083 44,644 46,124 42,178 47,757 49,541 49,593 50,147 47,727 48,529
29,563 32,442 33,561 30,643 32,162 32,718 33,237 43,440 37,471 33,500
29,357 36,018 36,914 34,538 35,488 36,441 35,063 51,088 36,502 37,755
15,940 16,711 19,240 18,824 20,097 21,793 22,842 24,489 23,375 25,040
7,740 9,640 10,015 9,441 9,837 8,629 9,484 10,116 9,806 12,092
136,030 83,650 83,050 73,005 67,508 77,400 94,600 105,800 118,700 128,100
11,419 12,990 12,997 12,433 12,433 13,164 13,160 12,721 13,276 13,850
50,200 52,100 59,800 52,500 56,400 54,700 52,800 57,400 57,300 61,600
9,408 9,211 10,745 10,229 9,773 9,979 10,065 10,429 9,976 11,305
401,520 410,781 408,948 406,625 416,092 422,034 425,659 427,654 398,225 404,735
NA = Not available.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN)
LUMBER & PLYWOOD Lumber Production and Consumption in the United States
In Millions of Board Feet
----------------------------------- Production ----------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- Domestic Consumption -------------------------------------
Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 I II III IV 2003 1 I II III 1
---------------------------- Softw ood ------------------------------------------------------- Softw ood ---------------------------California Inland Southern West Total Inland Southern West Softwood U.S. Hardwood Redwood Region Pine C o a st Total Hardwood Region Pine C o a st Imports Total Hardwood Imports
1,305 1,371 1,511 1,391 1,325 1,320 1,121 1,035 245 294 269 227 194 216 234
Preliminary.
7,015 7,079 7,383 7,298 7,580 7,078 6,563 6,760 1,650 1,767 1,730 1,613 1,752 1,656 1,675
14,708 15,262 16,113 16,151 16,922 16,672 16,094 16,686 4,068 4,526 4,333 3,759 3,985 4,383 4,152
7,452 7,745 7,772 7,797 8,625 8,782 8,764 9,244 2,264 2,401 2,356 2,223 2,370 2,397 2,496
32,233 33,266 34,667 34,677 36,605 35,967 34,577 35,831 8,741 9,549 9,230 8,311 8,819 9,193 9,091
12,434 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
6,956 7,073 7,180 7,256 7,445 6,926 6,490 6,643 1,616 1,761 1,715 1,551 1,678 1,737 1,706
U.S. Housing Starts: Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
6,530 6,821 7,012 7,502 8,115 8,300 8,471 8,966 2,117 2,330 2,326 2,193 2,200 2,336 2,455
17,396 18,214 18,002 18,686 19,178 19,449 20,075 20,986 5,170 5,716 5,104 4,996 4,725 5,622 5,511
47,749 49,883 50,863 52,209 54,262 53,934 53,828 56,054 13,645 14,998 14,269 13,142 13,101 14,689 14,621
In Thousands of Units
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Average
1,272 1,407 1,467 1,355 1,525 1,804 1,744 1,666 1,713 1,822
1,337 1,316 1,491 1,486 1,584 1,738 1,822 1,623 1,788 1,640
1,564 1,249 1,424 1,457 1,567 1,737 1,630 1,592 1,675 1,748
1,465 1,267 1,516 1,492 1,540 1,561 1,626 1,636 1,587 1,630
1,526 1,314 1,504 1,442 1,536 1,649 1,573 1,604 1,735 1,738
1,409 1,281 1,467 1,494 1,641 1,562 1,560 1,633 1,709 1,845
1,439 1,461 1,472 1,437 1,698 1,704 1,477 1,664 1,666 1,892
1,450 1,416 1,557 1,390 1,614 1,657 1,531 1,562 1,630 1,826
1,474 1,369 1,475 1,546 1,582 1,628 1,508 1,582 1,810 1,905
1,450 1,369 1,392 1,520 1,715 1,636 1,527 1,531 1,653 1,977
1,511 1,452 1,489 1,510 1,660 1,663 1,559 1,604 1,760 2,054
1,455 1,431 1,370 1,566 1,792 1,769 1,532 1,583 1,847
1,446 1,354 1,477 1,474 1,621 1,676 1,591 1,607 1,714 1,825
Year
Total Privately owned.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA)
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
4,207 4,403 4,293 3,973 3,884 3,519 3,639 3,919 4,784 3,175
4,512 4,336 4,435 4,019 3,970 3,595 3,704 3,864 3,735 3,177
4,656 4,344 4,459 4,113 4,048 3,688 3,811 4,013 3,826 3,202
4,816 4,653 4,357 4,067 4,062 3,726 3,887 3,951 3,756 3,249
4,883 4,352 4,251 3,963 4,158 3,698 3,960 4,095 3,273 3,308
4,649 4,663 4,153 4,017 4,084 3,581 2,738 3,955 3,316 3,211
4,738 4,508 4,156 3,915 NA 3,512 3,902 NA 3,242 3,075
4,432 4,323 4,038 3,871 NA 3,485 3,936 3,961 3,230 3,085
4,349 4,342 3,918 3,875 NA 3,533 3,878 3,938 3,136 3,081
4,539 4,359 3,965 3,927 NA 3,491 3,848 4,076 3,098 3,158
4,235 4,361 3,939 3,925 NA 3,562 3,957 4,100 3,173
4,294 4,335 3,906 3,865 NA 3,536 3,875 4,248 3,127
NA = Not available.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
Lumber (Softw ood)2 Production in the United States Year
1
In Millions of Board Feet
Jan.
Preliminary.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
59,501 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
F eb.
Stocks (Gross) of Softw ood Lumber in the United States, on First of Month
1
380 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Jan.
Preliminary.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2 0 0 31
11,372 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
NA = Not available.
Year
14,384 15,112 15,993 15,788 16,525 16,374 15,937 16,571 4,060 4,420 4,343 3,748 3,897 4,336 4,258
Total Lumber
In Millions of Board Feet
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,839 4,084 2,600 3,012 2,767 2,783 3,020 2,832 3,019 2,971
3,662 3,577 2,606 2,791 2,760 2,921 3,128 2,457 2,761 2,801
4,097 3,931 2,757 2,866 2,928 3,190 3,474 2,918 3,074 2,937
3,735 3,675 2,903 3,149 3,084 3,227 3,058 2,928 3,284 2,994
3,972 3,805 2,833 2,890 2,647 3,071 3,276 NA 3,126 2,931
4,113 3,897 2,819 3,027 3,051 3,318 3,249 3,032 3,200 3,109
3,785 3,641 2,942 3,097 3,079 3,115 2,730 2,812 3,104 3,088
4,124 3,866 3,077 2,889 2,930 3,054 2,971 3,240 3,128 2,981
4,135 3,757 2,858 2,905 2,953 2,992 2,839 2,743 2,862 3,052
4,145 4,105 3,179 3,094 3,167 3,096 3,041 3,188 3,386 3,241
3,636 3,549 2,758 2,536 2,667 2,954 2,761 2,740 2,599
3,851 3,297 2,424 2,487 2,754 2,795 2,342 2,372 2,482
47,094 45,184 33,756 34,743 34,787 36,516 35,889 34,104 36,025 36,126
Preliminary.
2
Data prior to 1996 are Softwood and Hardwood.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
161
LUMBER & PLYWOOD
Lumber: USD Per 1,000 Board Feet ----- White-Fir, 2x4 (Jan. 1959 - Dec. 1970) Spruce-Hem-Fir, 2x4 (Jan. 1971 - Mar. 1980) Spruce-Pine-Fir, 2x4 (Apr. 1980 - date) Plywood: USD Per 1,000 Square Feet - - - Sheathing, 1/2”-B (Aug. 1975 - date)
Lumber (Softw ood)2 Shipments in the United States Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 1
In Millions of Board Feet
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
3,576 3,971 2,460 2,966 2,685 2,689 2,953 2,859 3,032 3,018
3,663 3,584 2,581 2,697 2,685 2,829 3,039 2,372 2,815 2,742
3,912 3,855 2,863 2,890 2,863 3,177 3,394 2,981 3,049 2,843
3,761 3,831 3,002 3,253 3,019 3,227 2,974 2,974 3,212 3,134
4,192 3,765 2,934 2,834 2,684 3,071 3,292 NA 3,064 2,969
4,091 4,026 2,813 3,126 3,175 3,383 3,309 2,961 3,260 3,173
4,039 3,826 3,058 3,139 3,132 3,141 2,686 2,936 3,234 3,209
4,163 3,870 3,196 2,885 2,963 3,004 3,027 3,279 3,111 3,137
3,914 3,760 2,813 2,852 2,948 3,037 2,871 2,644 2,858 3,030
4,321 4,055 3,206 3,096 3,205 3,021 2,931 3,166 3,299 3,413
3,603 3,478 2,792 2,598 2,703 2,944 2,752 2,732 2,675
3,696 3,367 2,353 2,461 2,865 2,691 2,444 2,396 2,501
46,931 45,388 34,071 34,797 34,927 36,214 35,672 34,145 36,110 36,802
Preliminary.
2
Data prior to 1996 are Softwood and Hardwood.
Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
Imports and Exports of Lumber in the United States, by Type
In Millions of Board Feet
------------------------------------------ Exports2 -------------------------------------------
Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031 I II III 1
------------------------------------------------ Imports2 ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- Softw ood -------------------------Pond-------------------------------- Softw are --------------------------------erosa/ Douglas Total Total Douglas White Southern Total C edar Fir Hemlock Pine Spruce Total Hardwood Lumber Fir Hemlock Pine Pine Total Hardwood
703 768 727 586 514 591 694 667 648 140 157 131
336 395 264 264 417 426 455 471 385 65 98 110
399 258 257 250 268 259 184 199 69 11 12 14
97 97 133 314 363 449 450 365 445 108 134 118
2,949 2,828 1,989 1,040 849 803 812 838 1,046 186 225 208
16,380 17,395 18,214 18,014 18,686 19,178 19,449 20,075 20,986 4,725 5,622 5,511
394 380 397 465 589 708 795 645 739 184 191 191
16,787 17,787 18,641 18,506 19,306 19,903 20,268 20,737 21,774 4,923 5,826 5,711
592 638 685 436 252 249 232 168 111 31 23 20
283 227 195 105 39 54 46 26 19 6 4 4
Preliminary. 2 I ncludes sawed timber, board planks & scantlings, flooring, box shook and railroad ties. Source: American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA)
162
157 107 97 122 113 140 116 86 83 27 24 25
357 335 315 299 279 326 298 232 205 34 29 33
2,187 1,988 1,935 1,820 1,265 1,431 1,355 968 848 254 242 238
1,041 1,101 1,141 1,281 1,119 1,242 1,319 1,222 1,219 320 314 300
Total Lumber
3,333 3,193 3,173 3,189 2,601 2,867 2,822 2,351 2,313 621 613 593
LUMBER & PLYWOOD
Average Open Interest of Random Lumber1 Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
2,571 1,757 3,378 3,745 4,249 4,864 3,004 4,605 2,106 3,238
2,814 1,923 4,040 3,211 3,332 5,497 3,131 4,494 2,382 3,222
2,638 2,142 3,752 3,048 3,394 4,698 2,728 3,654 2,441 2,521
2,563 2,509 4,395 3,337 4,102 4,456 3,175 3,644 2,011 2,804
1,936 2,742 5,666 2,895 4,353 4,927 3,171 3,867 1,502 2,937
1,838 3,252 4,972 3,137 4,773 6,405 3,218 3,733 2,136 3,188
1,705 2,896 3,280 2,767 4,048 6,263 3,064 2,612 1,879 2,370
1,854 2,918 5,243 3,119 4,081 4,882 3,638 2,949 2,265 2,827
2,102 2,809 4,743 3,267 3,466 3,457 3,845 2,148 2,654 3,492
2,169 3,039 4,797 4,006 4,295 3,704 4,277 2,102 2,974 3,033
1,702 2,626 4,341 3,606 3,434 2,963 4,208 2,173 3,315 1,824
1,967 2,940 3,691 4,068 3,893 2,868 4,405 2,416 3,249 1,887
July 1995 thru March 1996, Lumber and Random Lumber.
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Volume of Trading of Random Lumber1 Futures in Chicago Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1
In Contracts
In Contracts
Jan.
F eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
D e c.
Total
16,837 12,150 22,954 28,561 19,556 25,962 19,871 21,567 15,328 24,241
15,204 12,909 19,960 20,946 20,339 22,184 19,486 15,076 13,239 17,533
17,323 15,088 20,956 21,071 20,881 28,151 18,936 24,561 16,401 17,027
17,380 12,139 27,094 24,624 24,673 22,
