Uranium 2003: Resources, Production And Demand

2004

AIEA IAEA

A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency

AIEA

IAEA

Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand

Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand paints a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactorrelated requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe and North America and for the first time, a report for Turkmenistan. Also included are international expert analyses and projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2020. The long lead times required to bring resources into production underscore the importance of making timely decisions to pursue production capability well in advance of any supply shortfall.

AIEA

(66 2004 08 1 P) E 85.00 ISBN 92-64-01673-2

Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand

The “Red Book”, jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. This edition, the 20th, presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand as of 1 January 2003 based on official information received from 43 countries.

Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand

IAEA

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N U C L E A R • E N E R G Y • A G E N C Y

A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency

Uranium 2003: Resources, Production and Demand

© OECD 2004 NEA No. 5291

NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30 September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: x to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; x to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and x to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996), the Republic of Korea (12th December 1996) and the Slovak Republic (14th December 2000). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention). th

NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1st February 1958 under the name of the OEEC European Nuclear Energy Agency. It received its present designation on 20th April 1972, when Japan became its first non-European full member. NEA membership today consists of 28 OECD Member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the work of the Agency. The mission of the NEA is: x to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally friendly and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as x to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues, as input to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD policy analyses in areas such as energy and sustainable development. Specific areas of competence of the NEA include safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries. In these and related tasks, the NEA works in close collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, with which it has a Co-operation Agreement, as well as with other international organisations in the nuclear field. Publié en français sous le titre : URANIUM 2003 : RESSOURCES, PRODUCTION ET DEMANDE – ÉDITION 2004 Photos: Uranium processing plant at Ranger mine, Alligator Rivers region, Northern Territory, Australia. Kombolgie sandstone escarpment in the distance. Courtesy of Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. © OECD 2004 Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom use should be obtained through the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CCF), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, Tel. (33-1) 44 07 47 70, Fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, for every country except the United States. In the United States permission should be obtained through the Copyright Clearance Center, Customer Service, (508)750-8400, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, or CCC Online: http://www.copyright.com/. All other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this book should be made to OECD Publications, 2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.

PREFACE

Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodical updates (currently every two years) on world uranium resources, production and demand. These updates have been published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the “Red Book”. This 20th edition of the Red Book replaces the 2001 edition and reflects information current as of 1 January 2003. The Red Book offers a comprehensive assessment of the uranium supply and demand situation up to the year 2020. The basis for the assessment consists of estimates of uranium resources in several categories of existence and economic attractiveness, projections of production capability, installed nuclear capacity and related uranium requirements. Annual statistical data and projections of uranium resources, exploration, production, installed nuclear capacity, annual uranium requirements, uranium stocks and relevant uranium policies are presented. In addition, detailed national reports are provided that include information on environmental activities. This publication analyses the uranium supply and demand situation throughout the world by evaluating data on uranium resources, past and present production, and plans for future production, comparing that data with projected future reactor-related uranium requirements. The impact of secondary sources of uranium is considered. Longer-term projections of uranium demand, based on expert opinion rather than on information submitted by national authorities, are qualitatively discussed in the report. This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through questionnaires sent by the NEA to its member countries (18 countries responded) and by the IAEA for those states that are not OECD member countries (25 countries responded). The opinions expressed in Parts I and II do not necessarily reflect the position of the countries or international organisations concerned. This report is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. Acknowledgement The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Paris, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, would like to acknowledge the co-operation of those organisations (see Annex 2), which replied to the questionnaire.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ............................................................................................................................................

3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................

9

I.

URANIUM SUPPLY ..................................................................................................................

13

A. URANIUM RESOURCES .................................................................................................... x Known Conventional Resources............................................................................... x Distribution of Known Conventional Resources by Categories and Cost Ranges ... x Distribution of Resources by Production Method..................................................... x Availability of Resources.......................................................................................... x Undiscovered Conventional Resources .................................................................... x Unconventional Resources and Other Materials.......................................................

13 13 13 14 20 20 22

B. URANIUM EXPLORATION ............................................................................................... x Current Activities and Recent Developments...........................................................

22 23

C. URANIUM PRODUCTION.................................................................................................. x Present Status of Uranium Production...................................................................... x Production Techniques ............................................................................................. x Projected Production Capabilities............................................................................. x Changes in Production Facilities ..............................................................................

28 31 34 34 36

II. URANIUM DEMAND.................................................................................................................

39

A. CURRENT COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR GENERATING CAPACITY AND REACTOR-RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS ....................................................

39

B. PROJECTED NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY AND RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS TO 2020 ................................................................................................. x Factors Affecting Capacity and Uranium Requirements .......................................... x Projections to 2020.........................................................................................................

47 47 48

C. URANIUM SUPPLY AND DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS ............................................... x Primary Sources of Uranium Supply............................................................................. x Secondary Sources of Supply ........................................................................................ x Uranium Market Developments .................................................................................... x Supply and Demand to 2020..........................................................................................

52 52 55 61 63

D. THE LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ....................................................................................

65

5

III. NATIONAL REPORTS ON URANIUM EXPLORATION, RESOURCES, PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND THE ENVIRONMENT ...................................................

69

Algeria ............................................................................................................................................ Argentina ........................................................................................................................................ Armenia .......................................................................................................................................... Australia ......................................................................................................................................... Belgium .......................................................................................................................................... Brazil .............................................................................................................................................. Canada ............................................................................................................................................ Chile................................................................................................................................................ China............................................................................................................................................... Czech Republic .............................................................................................................................. Denmark (Greenland) .................................................................................................................... Egypt............................................................................................................................................... Estonia ............................................................................................................................................ Finland............................................................................................................................................ France ............................................................................................................................................. Gabon ............................................................................................................................................. Hungary .......................................................................................................................................... India ................................................................................................................................................ Indonesia......................................................................................................................................... Iran, Islamic Republic of................................................................................................................ Japan ............................................................................................................................................... Jordan.............................................................................................................................................. Kazakhstan ..................................................................................................................................... Korea, Republic of ......................................................................................................................... Lithuania......................................................................................................................................... Namibia .......................................................................................................................................... Niger ............................................................................................................................................... Peru................................................................................................................................................. Philippines ...................................................................................................................................... Portugal........................................................................................................................................... Russian Federation......................................................................................................................... Slovak Republic ............................................................................................................................. Slovenia .......................................................................................................................................... South Africa ................................................................................................................................... Spain ............................................................................................................................................... Sweden ........................................................................................................................................... Switzerland..................................................................................................................................... Turkey............................................................................................................................................. Turkmenistan.................................................................................................................................. Ukraine ........................................................................................................................................... United Kingdom............................................................................................................................. United States of America ............................................................................................................... Uzbekistan ...................................................................................................................................... Vietnam ..........................................................................................................................................

70 71 76 77 87 90 97 108 111 117 125 126 128 130 133 138 140 144 152 154 157 161 163 171 173 175 180 185 186 188 191 199 201 204 212 216 219 221 223 224 230 234 243 250

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ANNEXES 1.

Members of the Joint NEA-IAEA Uranium Group ..................................................................... 253

2.

List of Reporting Organisations and Contact Persons .................................................................. 257

3.

Glossary of Definitions and Terminology..................................................................................... 261

4.

Acronym List.................................................................................................................................. 273

5.

Energy Conversion Factors............................................................................................................ 275

6.

Index of National Reports in Red Books....................................................................................... 279

7.

Currency Exchange Rates .............................................................................................................. 285

8.

Grouping of Countries and Areas with Uranium-related Activities............................................. 287

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Uranium 2003 – Resources, Production and Demand, presents the results of the most recent review of world uranium market fundamentals and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry as of 1 January 2003. First published in 1965, this, the 20th edition of what has become known as the “Red Book”, contains official data provided by 43 countries along with unofficial data for one additional country on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2020 are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. Exploration Worldwide exploration expenditures in 2002 totalled about USD 95 million, an increase of about 7% over 2001 expenditures, but still less than expenditures of between USD 110 million and USD 155 million recorded from 1996 to 1998. Exploration activities remain concentrated in areas with potential for unconformity-related deposits and ISL-amenable sandstone deposits, primarily in close proximity to known resources. Limited expenditures were directed toward “grass roots” exploration. Over 80% of the exploration expenditures in 2002 were devoted to domestic activities. Non-domestic exploration expenditures, although reported by two countries only (Canada and France), rose to almost USD 17 million in 2002, reversing a declining trend in non-domestic exploration expenditures that began in 1997. Exploration spending is expected to rise slightly in 2003, with expenditures projected to total over USD 98 million. Resources Total Known Conventional Resources (RAR & EAR-I) in both the