Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand

A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency 2010

Uranium 2009:

Resources, Production and Demand

N U C L E A R

E N E R G Y

A G E N C Y

A Joint Report by The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency And the International Atomic Energy Agency

Uranium 2009: Resources, Production and Demand

© OECD 2010 NEA No. 6891

NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 31 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members.

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NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1st February 1958 under the name of the OEEC European Nuclear Energy Agency. It received its present designation on 20th April 1972, when Japan became its first non-European full member. NEA membership today consists of 28 OECD member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the work of the Agency. The mission of the NEA is: –

to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international cooperation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally friendly and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as

–

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PREFACE

Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every two years) on world uranium resources, production and demand. These updates have been published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the “Red Book”. This 23rd edition of the Red Book replaces the 2007 edition and reflects information current as of 1st January 2009. The Red Book features a comprehensive assessment of current uranium supply and demand and projections to the year 2035. The basis of this assessment is a comparison of uranium resource estimates (according to categories of geological certainty and production cost) and mine production capability with anticipated uranium requirements arising from projections of installed nuclear capacity. In cases where longer-term projections of installed nuclear capacity were not provided by national authorities, projected demand figures were developed with input from expert authorities. Current data on resources, exploration, production and uranium stocks are also presented, along with historical summaries of exploration and production, and plans for future mine production. In addition, individual country reports provide detailed information on recent developments in uranium exploration and production, updates on environmental activities and information on relevant national uranium and nuclear energy policies. The Red Book also includes a compilation and evaluation of previously published data on unconventional uranium resources. Available information on secondary sources of uranium is presented and their potential market impact is assessed. This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through questionnaires sent by the NEA to OECD member countries (17 countries responded and one country report was prepared by the Secretariat of the Joint NEA/IAEA Group on Uranium) and by the IAEA for those states that are not OECD member countries (18 countries responded and four country reports were prepared by the Secretariat). The opinions expressed in Parts I and II do not necessarily reflect the position of the member countries or the international organisations concerned. This report is published on the responsibility of the OECD Secretary-General. Acknowledgement The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Paris, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, would like to acknowledge the co-operation of those organisations (see Appendix 2) which replied to the questionnaire.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE .............................................................................................................................................. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 9 I.

URANIUM SUPPLY ................................................................................................................. 15 A. URANIUM RESOURCES .................................................................................................. 15 • Identified Conventional Resources .............................................................................. 15 • Distribution of Identified Conventional Resources by Categories and Cost Ranges ... 16 • Distribution of Resources by Production Method ........................................................ 21 • Distribution of Resources by Deposit Type ................................................................. 22 • Proximity of Resources to Production Centres ............................................................ 26 • Undiscovered Resources .............................................................................................. 27 • Other Resources and Materials .................................................................................... 29 • Thorium........................................................................................................................ 32

II.

B.

URANIUM EXPLORATION ............................................................................................. 34 • Current Activities and Recent Developments .............................................................. 38

C.

URANIUM PRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 44 • Present Status of Uranium Production ......................................................................... 48 • Ownership .................................................................................................................... 49 • Employment ................................................................................................................. 51 • Production Methods ..................................................................................................... 52 • Projected Production Capabilities ................................................................................ 53 • Changes in Production Facilities.................................................................................. 54

URANIUM DEMAND .............................................................................................................. 59 A. CURRENT COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR GENERATING CAPACITY AND REACTOR-RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS .......................................... 59 B. PROJECTED NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY AND RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS TO 2035 ............................................................................................... 75 • Factors Affecting Capacity and Uranium Requirements ............................................. 75 • Projections to 2035....................................................................................................... 77 C.

URANIUM SUPPLY AND DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS .............................................. 84 • Primary Sources of Uranium Supply ........................................................................... 84 • Secondary Sources of Uranium Supply ....................................................................... 85 • Uranium Market Developments ................................................................................... 96 • Supply and Demand to 2035 ...................................................................................... 100

D. THE LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE ................................................................................ 103

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III.

NATIONAL REPORTS ON URANIUM EXPLORATION, RESOURCES, PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND THE ENVIRONMENT ................................................. 109 Argentina ................................................................................................................................... 110 Armenia ..................................................................................................................................... 120 Australia .................................................................................................................................... 122 Botswana ................................................................................................................................... 134 Brazil ......................................................................................................................................... 136 Bulgaria ..................................................................................................................................... 146 Canada ....................................................................................................................................... 154 China ......................................................................................................................................... 168 Czech Republic.......................................................................................................................... 179 Denmark .................................................................................................................................... 190 Egypt ......................................................................................................................................... 192 Finland ....................................................................................................................................... 195 France ........................................................................................................................................ 203 Germany .................................................................................................................................... 208 Hungary ..................................................................................................................................... 213 India ........................................................................................................................................... 221 Indonesia ................................................................................................................................... 235 Iran, Islamic Republic of ........................................................................................................... 240 Japan .......................................................................................................................................... 247 Jordan ........................................................................................................................................ 253 Kazakhstan ................................................................................................................................ 255 Korea, Republic of..................................................................................................................... 270 Malawi ....................................................................................................................................... 272 Mongolia ................................................................................................................................... 276 Namibia ..................................................................................................................................... 286 Niger .......................................................................................................................................... 302 Peru............................................................................................................................................ 312 Poland ........................................................................................................................................ 315 Portugal ..................................................................................................................................... 319 Russian Federation .................................................................................................................... 325 Slovak Republic ........................................................................................................................ 338 Slovenia ..................................................................................................................................... 343 South Africa .............................................................................................................................. 348 Spain .......................................................................................................................................... 364 Sweden ...................................................................................................................................... 371 Tanzania .................................................................................................................................... 376 Turkey ....................................................................................................................................... 381 Ukraine ...................................................................................................................................... 384 United Kingdom ........................................................................................................................ 396 United Sates of America............................................................................................................ 399

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APPENDICES 1.

Members of the Joint NEA-IAEA Uranium Group................................................................... 419

2.

List of Reporting Organisations and Contact Persons ............................................................... 423

3.

Glossary of Definitions and Terminology ................................................................................. 427

4.

Acronym List ............................................................................................................................. 439

5.

Energy Conversion Factors ....................................................................................................... 441

6.

Listing of all Red Book Editions (1965-2010) and National Reports ....................................... 445

7.

Currency Exchange Rates.......................................................................................................... 453

8.

Grouping of Countries and Areas with Uranium-related Activities .......................................... 455

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Uranium 2009 – Resources, Production and Demand presents, in addition to updated resource figures, the results of the most recent review of world uranium market fundamentals and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry as of 1 January 2009. First published in 1965, this is the 23rd edition of what has become known as the “Red Book.” It contains official data provided by 35 countries (and five Country Reports prepared by the Secretariat) on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactorrelated uranium requirements through 2035 are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. Exploration Worldwide exploration and mine development expenditures in 2008 totalled about USD 1.641 billion, an increase of 133% compared to updated 2006 figures, despite declining market prices since mid-2007. Most major producing countries reported increasing expenditures, as efforts to identify new resources and bring new production centers online moved forward. The majority of global exploration activities remain concentrated in areas with potential for hosting unconformityrelated and ISL (in situ leach; sometimes referred to as in situ recovery, or ISR) amenable sandstone deposits, primarily in close proximity to known resources and existing production facilities. However, generally higher prices for uranium since 2003, compared to the preceding two decades, have stimulated “grass roots” exploration, as well as increased exploration in regions known to have good potential based on past work. About 80% of the exploration and development expenditures in 2008 were devoted to domestic activities. Non-domestic exploration and development expenditures, although reported by only China, France, Japan and the Russian Federation, declined to USD 324.3 million in 2008 from USD 352.5 million in 2007, but remain significantly above the USD 19.2 million reported in 2003. Domestic exploration and development expenditures are expected to decline somewhat but remain strong throughout 2009, amounting to about USD 1.342 billion. Resources1

1.

Uranium Resources are classified by a scheme (based on geological certainty and costs of production) developed to combine resource estimates from a number of different countries into harmonised global figures. “Identified Resources” (RAR and Inferred) refer to uranium deposits delineated by sufficient direct measurement to conduct prefeasibility and sometimes feasibility studies. For Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR), high confidence in estimates of grade and tonnage are generally compatible with mining decision making standards. Inferred Resources are not defined with such a high a degree of confidence and generally require further direct measurement prior to making a decision to mine. “Undiscovered Resources” (Prognosticated and Speculative) refer to resources that are expected to occur based on geological knowledge of previously discovered deposits and regional geological mapping. Prognosticated Resources refer to those expected to occur in known uranium provinces, generally supported by some direct evidence. Speculative Resources refer to those expected to occur in geological provinces that may host uranium deposits. Both Prognosticated and Speculative Resources require significant amounts of exploration before their existence can be confirmed and grades and tonnages can be defined. For a more detailed description see Appendix 3.

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Total Identified Resources (Reasonably Assured & Inferred) as of 1 January 2009 declined slightly to 5 404 000 tonnes of uranium metal (tU) in the