The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization
The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization Edited by
Vladimir Burdyuzha Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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Dedicated to the memory of Carl Sagan (USA) and Joseph Shklovskii (Russia)
Contents
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Preface Declaration “ Protection of Life and our Civilization” Part I
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Life as a Space Phenomenon
The Spread of Life Throughout the Cosmos Chandra Wickramasinghe
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Our Understanding of the Evolution of the Sun and its Death Nami Mowlavi
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Planetary Cosmogony: Creation of Homeland for Life and Civilization Alexander V. Bagrov
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Impact Phenomena: In the Laboratory, on the Earth, and in the Solar System Jacek Leliwa-Kopystyński
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Part II The Origin of Life The Structural Regularities of Encoding of the Genetic Information in DNA Chromosomes Anatolyj Gupal
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The Origin of Life on the Earth: As a Natural Bioreactor Might Arise Mark Nussinov and Veniamin Maron
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Volcanoes and Life: Life Arises Everywhere Volcanoes Appear Oleksandr S. Potashko
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Lessons of Life Christian de Duve
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Human Evolution: Retrodictions and Predictions David R. Begun
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Man’s Place in Nature: Human and Chimpanzee Behavior are Compared Toshisada Nishida
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Creative Processes in Natural and Artificial Systems (Third Signal System of Man) Abraham Goldberg
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Part III Conservation of Life Human Alteration of Evolutionary Processes John Cairns, Jr. The Danger of Ruling Models in a World of Natural Changes and Shifts Nils-Axel Mörner Ecological Limits of the Growth of Civilization Kim S. Losev The Potential of Conversion of Environmental Threats into Socioeconomic Opportunities by Applying an Ecohydrology Paradigm Maciej Zalewski Advances in Space Meteorology Modeling and Predicting - the Key Factor of Life Evolution Mauro Messerotti Ocean Circulations and Climate Dynamics Mojib Latif How We Are Far from Bifurcation Point of the Global Warming? Oleg Ivaschenko Mankind Can Strive Against the Global Warming Michel E. Gertsenstein, Boris N. Shvilkin
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Can Advanced Civilization Preserve Biodiversity in Marine Systems? Menachem Goren
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Can We Personally Influence the Future with Our Present Resources? Claudius Gros, Kay Hamacher, Wolfgang Meyer
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World Energy Development Prospects Anatoly Dmitrievsky
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Energy in the Universe and its Availability to Mankind Josip Kleczek
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Deuterium Explosion Power N.P. Voloshin, A.S. Ganiev, G.A. Ivanov, F.P. Krupin, S.Yu. Kuzminykh, B.V. Litvinov, Leonid Shibarshov, A.I. Svalukhin
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Accelerating Changes in our Epoch and the Role of Time-Horizons Kay Hamacher Mathematical and Spiritual Models: Scope and Challenges Jose-Korakutty Kanichukattu Future of our Civilization: Benefits and Perils of Advanced Science and Technology Ting-Kueh Soon
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Dark Energy and Life’s Ultimate Future Ruediger Vaas
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Digital Aspects of Nature and Ultimate Fate of Life Hoi-Lai Yu
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Spirals of Complexity - Dynamics of Change Don-Edward Beck
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Part IV How Can We Improve our Life? Nutrition, Immunity and Health Ranjit Chandra
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Human Races and Evolutionary Medicine Bernard Swynghedauw Bacteria in Human Health and Disease: From Commensalism to Pathogenicity Helena Tlaskalova-Hogenova Is there a Solution to the Cancer Problem? Jarle Breivik Are Embryonic Stem Cells Research and Human Cloning by our Future? Lyubov Kurilo
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Defeat of Aging - Utopia or Foreseeable Scientific Reality Aubrey de Grey
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Cardiology in XXI Century Sergei Konorskiy
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Cancer Problem in the Eyes of the Skin Multiparameter Electrophysiological Imaging Yuriy F. Babich Perspective of Quantum Medicine Volodymyr K. Magas There are 6 Million Tons of Brain Matter in the World, Why do We Use it so Unwisely Boris N. Zakhariev Conservation of Biological Diversity John Skinner Dialogue among Civilizations as a New Approach for International Relations Mohammad R. Hafeznia New Proposals to Conserve Life and Civilization Vladimir Burdyuzha, Oleg Dobrovol’skiy, Dmitriy Igumnov
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Part V
What is our Future
Eco-Ethics Must be the Main Science of the Future Brian Marcotte
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The Vital Tripod: Science, Religion and Humanism for Sustainable Civilization Bidare V. Subbarayappa
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HIV/AIDS and the Future of the Poor, Illiterate and Marginalized Populations Rajan Gupta
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Ocean Settlements are a Step in the Future Kenji Hotta
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Futurology: Where is Future going? Roman Retzbach
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Towards Sustainable Future by Transition to the Next Level Civilization Andrei P. Kirilyuk
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The Future of Solar System and Earth from Religious Point of View Kamel Ben Salem
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Part VI
Are We Alone?
The Life-Time of Technological Civilizations Guillermo A. Lemarchand
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Calculating the Number of Habitable Planets in the Milky Way Siegfried Franck, Werner von Bloh, Christine Bounama and Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber
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Participants
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Index
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Preface
Our second Symposium “The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization” was held in May of 2005 year in Germany (Frankfurt am Main). The first one “ The Future of the Universe and the Future of our Civilization” was held in July of 1999 year in Hungary (Budapest and Debrecen). The late professor George Marx from Eotvos University was Chairman of Local Organizing Committee (LOC) in Budapest. In Debrecen professor Denes Berenyi from Institute of Nuclear Research was Chairman of LOC. After Symposium in Hungary a thought was created to hold a new one to discuss the Future of Life. Practically 6 years came after Budapest’s meeting. At first the thought was to hold such Symposium in two stages. The Symposium might be begun in India (Rerikh’s places in Himalaya) and then might be continued in Greece since Greece is a motherland of our Civilization. But India and Greece were rejected owing to financial problems. It is necessary to remember the late French professor Michel Bounias from University of Avignon who took in participation on all stages of organization of these Symposiums. Professors Jiannis Seiradakis also as and Athina Geronikaki of Thessaloniki University helped me very much before transfer of Symposium of Greece in Germany. In January of 2004 year was a critical moment since Symposium in Thessaloniki might be wrecked (any money were absent). In this moment professor Claudius Gros of Saarland University proposed to transfer our Symposium in Germany. We quickly wrote the proposal to Volkswagen Foundation and in November of 2004 year a positive reply was already. Thus Claudius Gros saved this situation and our Symposium was held in Frankfurt/Main in May (2-6) of 2005 year where Claudius was Chairman of Local Organizing Committee. The Scientific Org. Committee (SOC) had 13 members: Mohammed AlMalki (S.Arabia); Michel Bounias (France); Vladimir Burdyuzha (Russia); Claudius Gros (Germany); Rajan Gupta (USA); Mohammad Reza Hafeznia (Iran); Hans Haubold (Austria); Vadim Kvitash (USA/Ukraine); Elia Leibowitz (Israel); Nils-Axel Morner (Sweden); Bidare Subbarayappa (India); Helena Tlaskalova (Czech Rep.) and Maciej Zalewski (Poland). Advisory Committee had 11 members: Georgio Bertorelle (Italy); John Cairns (USA); Anatoliy Dmitrievsky (Russia); Lev Fishelson (Israel);
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brey de Grey (UK); Guillermo Lemarchand (Argentina); Emil Skamene (Canada); Marcelo Sorondo (Vatican); Jiannis Seiradakis (Greece); HoiLai Yu (Taiwan) and Raymond Zeltz (France). The Symposium in Frankfurt/Main “The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization ” (modeling and predictions) was dedicated to the memory of outstanding Scientists: CARL SAGAN (USA) and JOSEPH SHKLOVSKII (RUSSIA). This Symposium was an interdisciplinary one. Questions of Life safety were discussed in detail. As the professor George Marx in Budapest as and the professor Claudius Gros in Frankfurt have shown self sacrifice practically in all questions of holding of the Symposiums. In Frankfurt more than 50 scientists of different countries have participated. Among participants a Nobel Prizeman -Christian de Duve (Belgium) was also. After long discussions we have prepared a Declaration “ Protection of Life and our Civilization” which is opened for a signature in Internet http://archive.future25.org/Symposium05/declaration.html In preparation of the Declaration Ruediger Vaas (Germany), Bidare Subbarayappa (India), Lev Fishelson (Israel), Aubrey de Grey (UK) and Rajan Gupta (USA) have taken in part very actively. The main thought of the last Symposium can be formulated as: conservation of the natural biota in the sufficient volume is the key problem of Life preservation and stability of our Civilization. Besides, an ecological sustainable development in our anthropogenic systems is impossible in principle after excess of a carrying ecological capacity. Unfortunately we have already overstepped the first ecological limit. Other words a new history of our Civilization must be built that would agree with laws of the biosphere. A superior science and technology and an inferior moral are a combination that dynamically unstable. Unfortunately this is our modern world. The analysis of Dr. G. Lemarchand has shown that we would need to wait between 30-500 years in order to generate a violent event at which the whole human population will disappear. In conclusion the quotation of Dr. J. Kleczek is appropriate: “ The Earth is our cosmic home moving around Sun like a lonely spaceship with 6 billion human beings on board. It is a blue fragile Beauty with its own energy sources which are limited and soon will be depleted ” Oleg Ivaschenko (Ukraine) and Alexei Alakoz have helped me very much for the preparation of the Proceedings. Besides, I would like to thank Professor C. Gros and Frau M. Kolokotsa for excellent organization of our Symposium in Goethe University of Frankfurt/Main in May of 2005 year. Vladimir Burdyuzha, Chairman of SOC, 20 March of 2006 year.
DECLARATION PROTECTION OF LIFE AND OUR CIVILIZATION
Preamble The world-wide community of scientists forms a unique society that aims to discover universal truths. Academic Andrei Sakharov once noted that “The formula E = mc 2 holds true on all continents ”. Sadly, some important discoveries of this community continue to be used for destructive purposes. The three particularly alarming issues that we wish to raise are: (I) The application of science for the production of armaments and other military technology that have not succeeded in preventing human conflicts and wars; (II) The fast pace of application of technology leading to degradation of the environment and emerging ecological imbalances that continue to erode the symbiotic relationship between man and nature; and (III) The continued poor state of value placed on life and on the basic human right to live with dignity, freedom and harmony. Today we are witness to many bloody conflicts and other destructive activities (trans-national criminals, drug-dealers, terrorism, etc). Even the basic human right - the right to life - is often not guaranteed. It is important that scientists all over the world collaborate to protect and improve our lives and our civilizations, based on the common moral principles as defined in the UN declaration of the rights of man. Many of these intertwined issues were deliberated upon by a group of scientists, technologists and environmentalists at an International Symposium “ The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization” held at the Goethe University in Frankfurt/Main (Germany) during 2-6 May 2005 and they unanimously adopted the following Declaration.
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Declaration Being deeply concerned over the poor state of national and international affairs, global changes, ecological catastrophes, continued investment in ever more powerful weapons, arms races and international conflicts that are undermining the future of mankind; and recognizing the paramount importance of the active involvement of scientists, technologists and other intellectuals in addressing these problems and finding viable solutions to them: We, the participants in the Symposium on “ The Future of Life and the Future of our Civilization”, unanimously recommend at an “INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR STUDY OF THE FUTURE ” be established under the auspices of the UN or one of its Agencies. This Center should draw upon the expertise of leading scientists, technologists, economists, sociologists, and others from different parts of the world to suggest effective measures for the protection of life and our civilization. Such a Center should be international and independent of political and religious influences, and through careful and unbiased analysis create consensus that advises governments and other policy making bodies or individuals. The Center should track, analyze and provide long term prognosis of the spectrum of events that may affect the safety and well being of life on the Earth. These should include catastrophes due to military applications in space or to events of ecological, technological, atmospheric or hydrospheric nature. The Center should seek to bring together preeminent specialists from throughout the world, and bring to bear all available methodologies to provide solid, scientifically-based predictions and proposed solutions. THE OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSED CENTER SHOULD BE:
a. to collect and analyze information about any events with the potential to threaten the safety of life on Earth; b. to provide scientific and analytical support to the many branches of the UN; c. to reduce and mitigate losses due to ecological and socio-economic disasters; d. to reduce and eventually to stop the production and distribution of all weapons. In particular international controls and restrictions on the weapons of mass destruction should be adhered to, starting first by the actions of scientists.
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e. to strengthen efforts towards promotion of peace and harmony among all different peoples of the world. f. to protect basic human rights and to evolve an international order built upon a solid foundation of openness, dialogue, transparency and good-neighbourly relations. We express our hope that international laws will be enacted and acknowledged by all nations. Violation of the safety of our planet should be considered a grave crime against humanity. We propose that all countries reduce their military investments by 0.1 % every year and the money thus saved should be used to provide health care and education to all people. In addition, individuals, foundations, and nongovernmental organizations should be encouraged and empowered to continue to work with the poor and the needy. We consider that a scientific approach to analyzing, anticipating and resolving issues related to the long term health and safety of our planet and its citizens must constitute the very foundation of the center. We have a choice: to stress the environment beyond its capacity for regeneration and to live with conflict, war, poverty, hunger and disease, as we are doing today, or to embrace a new dawn and create freedoms and opportunities for all. It is time to take a stand! In full concurrence and support thereof, we affix our signature below. Affiliation
Name and Family Name
Country
Signature
This variant of Declaration was prepared by Rajan Gupta. It is practically the same as and in Internet and it is open for a signature.The Internet address is: http://archive.future25.org/Symposium05/declaration.html
I
LIFE AS A SPACE PHENOMENON
The Spread of Life Throughout the Cosmos
Chandra Wickramasinghe Cardiff Center for Astrobiology, Cardiff University, 2 North Road, Cardiff, CF10 3DY, UK
There is growing evidence for the widespread distribution of microbial material in the Universe. A minuscule ( IJH excluded); (III) Geodynamics of the Earth-like planet (t > tmax excluded); (IV) Tidal locking of the planet (non-trivial sub-domain excluded). The excluded realms are marked by light gray shading in case of the first three factors, and by gray hatching for the tidal-locking effect. The picture is taken from Franck et al. (2000b).
Based on Eq. 1, the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) is defined as the band of orbital distances where the planet is within the HZ for a given time interval IJ. In the next chapter we will use our results presented in Fig. 2 to calculate the average number of planets per a planetary system, which are suitable for the development of life. This number will be first used to calculate the number of habitable planets in the Milky Way with the help of a subset of the Drake equation. In a second approach we calculate the Number of habitable planets over cosmological time scales with the help of a convolution integral over the planet formation rate of Earth-like planets and the probability that a stellar system hosts a habitable Earth-like planet at a certain time after its formation.
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The Drake Equation How can we estimate the number of technological civilizations that might exist “out there”? A convenient scheme for extra-terrestrial intelligence prospecting is the Drake equation, which identifies specific factors considered to play a role in the development of such civilizations and allows estimating at least orders of magnitude:
N CIV
N MW f P nCHZ f L f CIV G .
(2)
This equation counts the number of contemporary technical civilizations in the Milky Way, NCIV, whose radio emissions may be detectable, but note that some factors in Eq. 3 are highly speculative: Depending on more pessimistic or more optimistic assumptions, one can end up with either no candidates at all or a surprisingly large number of possible entities. Let us discuss the specific factors in detail:
x NMW is the total number of stars in the Milky Way. x fP is the fraction of stars with Earth-like planets. x nCHZ is the average number of planets per a planetary system, which are suitable for the development of life. x fL is the fraction of habitable planets where life emerges and a full biosphere develops, i.e. a biosphere interacting with its environment on a global scale (Gaia’s sisters). x fCIV denotes the fraction of sisters of Gaia developing technical civilizations. Life on Earth began over 3.85 billion years ago. Intelligence took an extremely long time to develop. On other life-bearing planets, it may happen faster, it may take longer, or it may not develop at all. x G describes the average ratio of civilization lifetime to Gaia lifetime (Lemarchand, 2005). As already mentioned above, fCIV and G are highly speculative items: There is just no information available about the typical evolutionary path of life, or the characteristic “life span” of communicating civilizations. Regarding the fate of ancient advanced civilizations on Earth, the typical lifetime was limited by increasing environmental degradation or overexploitation of natural resources. One can also speculate that the development and utilization of certain techniques, which facilitate the emergence of a higher civilization, may be accompanied by new vulnerabilities or hazard potentials that jeopardize the very subsistence of advanced cultures. As a consequence, the lifetime of any communicating civilization may be limited to the range of few hundreds of years, yet this is not even an educated guess.
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On the other hand, the first three factors seem to be assessable by geophysiological theory and observation. Therefore, from the view of Earth system analysis, we will focus on estimation for the number of habitable planets in the Milky Way:
N hab : N MW f P nCHZ .
(3)
The key factor in Eq. 3 is nCHZ. For the assessment of this factor it is necessary to investigate the habitability of an extra-solar planetary system. Now we can start to calculate N hab by discussing the three factors in Eq. 3: 1. The total number of stars in the Milky Way is rather well known (see, e.g. Dick, 1998). It can be derived from the star formation rate (Zinnecker et al., 1993). We pick the value NMW | 41011. According to Gonzalez et al. (2001) there exists also a so-called “Galactic Habitable Zone” (GHZ), i.e. that region in the Milky Way, where an Earth-like planet can be habitable at all. The inner limit of the GHZ is defined by exogenous perturbations destroying life (e.g. supernovae, gamma ray bursts, comet impacts). The outer limit is set by the chemical evolution of the galaxy, in particular the radial disk metallicity gradient. Up to now, Gonzalez et al. (2001) have investigated only the outer limit quantitatively. Therefore, a quantitative estimation of the GHZ is still not possible and we cannot reduce the value for NMW given above. 2. Current extra-solar planet detection methods are sensitive only to giant planets. According to Marcy and Butler (2000) and Marcy et al. (2000) approximately 5% of the Sun-like stars surveyed possess giant planets. These discoveries show that our solar system is not typical. Several stars are orbited by giant planets very close and highly eccentric. Up to now, the fraction of stars with Earth-like planets can be estimated only by theoretical considerations. Lineweaver (2001) combines star and Earth formation rates based on the metallicity of the host star. Using his results we can find a rough approximation for the fraction of stars with Earth-like planets from the ratio of Earth formation rate to star formation rate. Since the Sun has formed this ratio is always between 0.01 and 0.014. In the framework of a conservative approximation we pick the value fP | 0.01. 3. The average number of Earth-like planets per a planetary system which are suitable for the development of life, i.e. residing in the CHZ, can be calculated in the following way (Franck et al., 2001): First one computes the probable number of planets, Phab(M,t), which are within the CHZ, [Rinner(W), Router(W)], of a central star with mass M at a certain time t. For this calculation it is assumed that the planets
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are distributed uniformly on a logarithmic scale (Kasting, 1996). This distribution is a good approximation for the solar system and not in contradiction to our knowledge of already discovered planetary systems. Knowing Phab(M,t), one has to integrate over all stellar ages t on the main sequence, and after that over all central star masses that are relevant for HZs, i.e. between 0.4 Ms and 2.2 Ms. The stellar masses M are distributed according to a power law M-2.5 (Scheffler and Elsässer, 1988). Introducing certain normalization constants and using W = 500 Myr as the necessary time interval for the development of life (Jakosky, 1998), Franck et al. (2001) find, for the geodynamic model, nCHZ = 0.012. This means that only about 1% of all the extra-solar planets are habitable. This calculated number is actually one order of magnitude smaller than the number 1/4 implied by the situation in our solar system. With the help of the three numbers just discussed we finally arrive at
N hab | 4.8 10 7 ,
(4)
which is indeed a rather large number (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3. Determination of the number of habitable planets N hab , bases on the number of stars in the Milky Way by application of the factors in Eq. 3.
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Star Formation, Planet Formation Rates and Panspermia The question of the star formation history (SFH) has been the subject of a number of studies. While some authors favor a smooth and constant SFH, others favor a bursty SFH fluctuating around a constant mean (Twarog, 1980; Scalo, 1987; Barry, 1988; Rocha-Pinto et al., 2000). However, cosmological simulations result in an exponentially decaying star formation rate (SFR) with intermittent spikes (Nagamine et al., 2001). Based on the most recent observational data, Lineweaver (2001) fits the SFR for the universe to an exponentially increasing function for the first 2.6 Gyr after Big Bang followed by an exponential decline. He uses this fit to quantify star metalicity as an ingredient for the formation of Earth-like planets. The metalicity ȝ is built up during cosmological evolution through stars, i.e., t
P ~ ³ SFR(t c) dt c . 0
(5)
Then the planet formation rate (PFR) can be parameterized in the following way:
PFR
0.05 SFR p E ( P ) >1 p J ( P )@ ,
(6)
where pE is the probability that Earth-like planets are formed and pJ the probability for hot Jupiter formation with orbits at which they would destroy Earth-like planets. The pre-factor 0.05 reflects the assumption that 5% of the stars are in the range of 0.8…1.2 solar masses (Ms). The relation between metalicity and the probability pE (1-pJ) is a so-called Goldilocks problem: if the metalicity is too low, there is not enough material to build Earth-like planets; if the metalicity is too high, there is a high probability of forming hot Jupiters. Taking all these effects into account, one can derive the time-dependent PFR. The number of stellar systems containing habitable planets in the Milky Way, P(t), can be calculated with the help of a convolution integral:
P(t )
³
t o
PFR(t c) u p hab (t t c) dt c ,
(7)
where phab is the probability that a stellar system hosts a habitable Earthlike planet at time ǻt after its formation. The probability that an Earth-like planet is in the HZ, pHZ, is (Whitmire and Reynolds, 1996):
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p HZ ( M , 't )
1 C1
³
Router ( M , 't ) Rinner ( M , 't )
R 1 dR ,
(8)
where C1 is a normalization factor. phab can be expressed as follows:
p hab ('t )
1.2 M s 1 N NP ³ M 2.5 1 1 p HZ M , 't P dM , M 0 . 8 s C2
(9)
where C2 is again a normalization factor, and Np is the average number of Earth-like planets per stellar system. Under the condition of small pHZ Eq. 9 can be simplified to:
p hab ('t )
1.2 M s 1 NP ³ M 2.5 p HZ ( M , 't ) dM . 0.8 M s C2
(10)
The product of the normalization factors C1 C2 = 1.57Ms-1.5 results from solving Eq. 10 between the central-star-mass-dependent minimum and maximum HZ boundaries 0.1·M/Ms AU and 4·M/Ms AU, respectively. With this definition of phab Eq. 7 yields also the number of habitable planets in the Milky Way. In order to estimate phab , the following assumptions are made:
x The stellar masses M are distributed according to a power law (Scheffler and Elsässer, 1988) ~M-2.5 ; x the distribution of planets can be parameterized by p(R)~R-1, i.e. their distribution is uniform on a logarithmic scale in the distance R from the central star (Whitmire and Reynolds, 1996; Kasting, 1996); x following Lineweaver (2001) we restrict our attention to the set of Sunlike stars in the mass range from 0.8 to 1.2Ms; x Rinner and Router are the inner and outer boundaries of the HZ, respectively. They are explicit functions of the central star mass and the age of the corresponding planetary system (Franck et al., 2000b); and x the average number of Earth-like planets per stellar system, Np, is set to 4 according to the number of Earth-like planets in our solar system. In Fig. 4a we show the PFR recalculated from Lineweaver (2001) and rescaled to the present star formation rate in the Milky Way of about one solar mass per year. The results for the calculation of the number of stellar systems containing habitable planets in the Milky Way, P(t), are presented in Fig. 4b. The value P(t = 13.4 Gyr) of about 4·107 is of the same order of magnitude as given in Eq. 4. In principle, P(t) depends on the chosen function for
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the star formation history. The assumption of a constant SFH would lead to qualitatively different results. In contrast, the addition of “spikes” to our applied SFH has only minor effects. This results from the convolution integral, which damps out fluctuations in the PFR in the sense of a low-pass filter.
Fig. 4. (a) Earth-like planet formation rate (PFR) (Lineweaver, 2001), and (b) number of stellar systems containing habitable planets, P(t), as a function of cosmological time for the Milky Way. The vertical dotted lines denote the time of Earth’s origin and the present time, respectively.
The probability of interstellar panspermia depends on several factors. First of all, the emitting planet must be habitable because it must be a source of viable microorganisms. Secondly, the microorganisms must survive the interstellar journey. This depends strongly on their survival rate. At least, the target planet must be also habitable to allow the seeding by a
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single organism. In a Gaian perspective a habitable planet is related to the instability of a terrestrial planet in a dead state, i.e. a small perturbation by a seed forces the system to a state with a globally acting biosphere. Therefore, interstellar panspermia events are related to the average density of stellar systems containing habitable planets (Fig. 4b). On the basis of our results (von Bloh et al., 2003) and the results of Melosh (2001) we can calculate the average number of interstellar panspermia events in the Milky Way, N(t).The result is shown in Fig. 5.
Fig. 5. The number of interstellar panspermia events in the Milky Way, N(t), rescaled to Nmax as a function of cosmological time. Dotted vertical lines denote the time of Earth’s origin and the present time, respectively. If at all, panspermia was most probable at the time around Earth’s origin.
Conclusions The present number of habitable planets in the Milky Way is in the order of magnitude of 107, while there was a distinct maximum at the time of Earth’s origin. In this way the number of interstellar panspermia events has also a maximum at the time of Earth’s origin. Therefore, if at all, panspermia was most probable at this time. This supports the idea that panspermia might have caused a kick start to the processes by which life originated on Earth: there is palaeogeochemical evidence of a very early appearance of life on Earth leaving not more than approximately 1 Gyr for the evolution of life from the simple precursor molecules to the level of the prokaryotic photoautotrophic cells (Schidlowski, 1990; Brasier et al., 2002).
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Participants
Yuri Babich Center of Biomedical Engineering, Kurska 12A/38, Kiev 03049, Ukraine,
[email protected] David Begun Department of Anthropology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3G3, Canada,
[email protected] Vladimir Burdyuzha Astro-Space Center of Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya 84/32, Moscow, Russia,
[email protected] Siegfried Franck Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany,
[email protected] Claudius Gros Department of Physics, Frankfurt University, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany,
[email protected] Don-Edward Beck Box 797, Denton, Texas 76202, USA,
[email protected] 483
Jarle Breivik Interactive Life Science Laboratory and Section for Immunotherapy, University of Oslo at the Norwegian Radium Hospital, 0310 Oslo, Norway.
[email protected] Christian de Duve Christian de Duve Institute of Cellular Pathology, ICP 75.50, Avenue Hippocrate 75, B-1200 Brussels, Belgium,
[email protected] Menachen Goren Department of Zoology, The George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, 69978 Tel Aviv, Israel,
[email protected] Anatoly Gupal V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, Kyiv, Ac.Glushkov str. 40, Ukraine,
[email protected] 484
Rajan Gupta Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA,
[email protected] Kay Hamacher Center for Theoretical Biological Physics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA,
[email protected] Andrei Kirilyuk Solid State Theory Department, Institute of Metal Physics, 36 Vernadsky Avenue, 03142 Kiev-142, Ukraine;
[email protected] Mojib Latif Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University (IFM-GEOMAR), Dusternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany,
[email protected] Guillermo Lemarchand Centro de Estudios Avanzados and FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires; C.C. 8 Sucursal 25; C1425FFL Buenos-Aires, Argentina,
[email protected] Participants
Kenji Hotta Nihon University College of Science & Technology, 8-14, Kanda-Surugadai 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308, Japan,
[email protected] Josip Kleczek Astronomical Institute Czech Ac. Sci., 25165 OndĜejov, Czech Republic,
[email protected] Jacek Leliwa-Kopystinskiy Warsaw University, Institute of Geophysics, ul. Pasteura 7, 02093 Warszawa, Poland, and Space Research Center of Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. BartyBartycka 18A, 00-716 Warszawa, Poland,
[email protected] Kim Losev Geological Department of Moscow State University, Leninskie gori, 119992 Moscow, Russia,
[email protected] Brian Marcotte Eco-Ethics International Union, Volodymir Magas Strategic Analysis, Inc., 401 Departament de Fisica Teorica, Univer- Cumberland Avenue, Suite 1102, sitat de Valencia, C. Dr. Moliner 50, Portland, ME 04101-2875, USA, E-46100, Burjassot (Valencia), Spain.
[email protected] [email protected] Mohammad Hafeznia Department of political geography, Tarbiat Modarres University (TMU), Tehran, Islamic Republic Iran,
[email protected] Mauro Messerotti INAF-Trieste Astronomical Observatory, Loc. Basovizza n. 302, 34012 Trieste, Italy and Department of Physics, University of Trieste, Via A.Valerio. N. 1, 34133 Trieste, Italy,
[email protected] Participants
Nami Mowlavi INTEGRAL Science Data Center, Ecogia, 1290 Versoix, Switzerland, Observatoire de Gen`eve, Sauverny, 1290 Versoix, Switzerland,
[email protected] 485
Boris N. Zakhariev Nils-Axel Morner Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden,
[email protected] Roman Retzbach ZUKUNFT-INSTITUT / FutureInstitute & Trend-Institute international, Franzosische Str. 8-12, 10117 Berlin, Germany,
[email protected] Olexandr Potashko Marine Geology and Sedimetory Ore Formation Section of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine,
[email protected] Ting-Kueh Soon Malaysian Scientific Association, Room 2, 2nd Floor, Bangunan Sultan Salahuddin Abdul Aziz Shah, 16, Jalan Utara, 46200 Petaling Jaya, Malaysia,
[email protected] John Skinner University of Pretoria, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Private Bag X04, ONDERSTEPOORT, 0110, South Africa Republic,
[email protected] Bernard Swynghedauw Hôpital Lariboisière. 41 Bd de la Chapelle. 75475, Paris Cedex 10, France,
[email protected] Bidare Subbarayappa Science and Spiritual Research in India, 30, M. N. Krishna Rao Road, Basavangudi, Bangalore560004, India,
[email protected] Chandra Wickramasinghe Cardiff Center for Astrobiology, Cardiff University, 2 North Road, Cardiff, CF10 3DY, UK,
[email protected] Rudiger Vaas Center for Philosophy and Foundations of Science, University of Gießen, Germany,
[email protected] 486
Hoi-Lai Yu Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan,
[email protected] Maciej Zalewski Bogolyubov’s Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, 6 Joliot Curie, 141980 Dubna, Russia,
[email protected] Participants
International Centre for Ecology Polish Academy of Sciences, Tylna str. 3, 90-364 Lodz, Poland; Department of Applied Ecology, University of Lodz, Banacha str. 12/16, 90-237 Lodz, Poland,
[email protected] Index
arrhythmia 293, 300 asteroid 14, 34-35, 37-38, 42-46, 48, 50-52, 135 astrobiology 3, 20 astroblemes 34 atherosclerosis 255 atmosphere 13, 15-16, 48-49, 50-52, 109-110, 132, 134-136, 145, 194, 196, 445-446 axiom 86
abiotic way 74 acupuncture 323 adapiformes 69-70 adenin 57 adjuvant 285 aerobiology 14 aerogel 16 aggravation 89 AIDS 219, 258, 380-384, 386, 394-398, 400 alcohol 364, 385-387 alga 159 algae 159 allotropic 285 alteration 97 amino acid 285 amyloid 282, 284 Anaxagoras 106 ancestral 15 angiogenesis 293, 298-301 anonymity 382 anthropoid 69-71 anthropoidea 69 antibiotics 99 antibody 380 anticodon 58 antipodal 314 antigravity 232 apartheid 342 ape 67 Aristarkos 105 Aristotle 105
bacteria 3, 263 barracudas 384 benefit 168-171, 182, 184-185, 211, 216, 221, 224, 227, 229, 275, 287, 293, 295, 297, 347, 354, 375, 380, 393, 396, 398, 441 bifurcation 145, 148, 411, 422-423, 432 Big Bang 24, 87, 92, 190-191, 201, 231, 234, 237, 239, 372, 439, 477 Big Crunch 231, 236, 238-240 Big Rip 233, 239-240, 242, 246 Big Whimper 231, 235, 237, 239 binding energy 188, 192 bioastronomy 133-134, 458, 467 biodiversity 65, 124, 127-128, 155-157, 161-163, 349, 392, 394 biogens 116
489
490
biogeocenoses 115-117 biogerontologist 270 biological weapon 219 biomass 6, 124-125, 160, 186, 196, 198-200 bioniche 65 biopolymers 63 bioreactor 63 biosphere 14, 45, 52, 61, 99, 115-116, 119, 141, 155, 163, 187-188, 322, 375, 460, 472-474, 480-481 bipedalism 73 blastocysta 267 bonobos 69 brain matter 335 braneworld 239 Brownian motion 321 calamities 111, 223 cancer 101, 104, 255, 259, 261, 265, 275, 284, 286, 290, 292, 307, 309, 319-320, 380 carbon dioxide 8, 149-150, 197, 296 cardiac tissue 291 cardiomyocytes 291-293, 295-296, 300, 302, 304-306 cardiomyoplasty 292, 294, 305 catalysis 89, 134 catarrhini 70, 72, 126 catchment 122-124, 126-127, 129 ceramics 226 cercopithecoidea 66 chemical compound 201 chemical fuel 201 chemical weapon 363 chicken 60, 399 chimney 65 chimpanzee 61, 69, 74, 76, 83
Index
Chinese medicine 324 chromosome 57-62, 260, 268, 273 cladocerans 125 clayey kernel 63 climatology 107, 133 cloning 78, 267, 271-275, 364, 407 coal 151, 180, 183, 185-186, 197, 202, 222, 396 colossus 364 comet 12-16, 34, 37, 45, 48, 51, 476 cometary dust 14 cometary nuclei 35, 42, 46 condom 395 contractile cells 290, 295 controlled fusion 201 convergence 205,212 coral 97, 157-159, 161-162 core 6, 25, 28,42, 50,64, 113, 187-188, 181, 194-196, 203, 250, 358,364, 459 coronary occlusion 290 corruption 101, 343-344, 385, 390 cosmetics 387 cosmological constant 231-232, 234, 237, 239-240 crab 65 crania 73,75 crater 44-45, 47-49, 52, 54 creative processes 85-86, 94 credential 99, 101 crystal grid 332 cutaneous 301-302, 305, 307, 319 cytoplasmic membranes 323 cytosine 57 damage 5-6, 52, 97, 107, 117, 138, 148-150, 155-158, 160, 222, 275-281, 287, 292, 295, 297, 299, 303, 321, 325, 340, 345, 363, 394
Index
dark energy 94, 187, 231-234, 237, 240-242, 246 deceleration parameter 231 defeat 276, 288, 340, 344 degradation 7-8, 10, 49, 97, 115, 126, 133, 217, 222, 285, 369, 374, 391, 422-424, 426, 431, 459, 461, 475 dehumanization 372, 374 democracy 90, 170-171, 174, 176, 343, 428-430, 461, 463-464 demographers 277 deterioration 179, 219, 371 deuterium 151-153, 201-204 deuterium fission 151 diamonds 335, 385 dilaton 239 dimerization 5-6 DNA 6, 57-58, 61-62, 67, 270, 273, 283-284, 308, 319, 323, 329, 369 DNA replication 58, 323 Drake equation 457, 459, 466, 469, 473-474, 481 D-ribosa 63 dryopithecus 73-74 earthquakes 224, 362 ecohydrology 121-124, 127-131 ecological catastrophe 98-99, 103 ecological cycles 119 econophysics 206, 211, 214 ecospace 133, 135, 141 ecosystem 98, 116-119, 121-124, 126-128, 130, 155-156, 158-162, 164, 393-394, 424, 427 ecotone 125-126, 129 eigenfield 321-328, 330, 332
491
embryo 41, 47, 193-194, 230, 267-275, 297 embryonic stem cells 269-270, 297, 302, 306 enzymic system 6 Eocene 70-71 eschatology 239, 244 eutrophication 124, 126, 158 exobiology 458 exogenous cells 292 explosion power 151, 203 extinction 9-11, 18, 52, 54, 78, 222, 229, 375, 464, 466 extradimension 234, 238, 240 extrasolar 32, 469, 481-482 fanatics 384 fertilization 267-268, 272 fishery 155-156, 162 fission 150-151, 192, 203 foetus 266-267 foreign policy 351-353, 355, 360 fry 124, 129 fuel 8, 67, 101, 128, 149-153, 180-188, 190, 194, 196-197, 199-204, 221-222, 392, 396 fungi hyphae 117 fusion 25, 151, 167, 168, 189, 193, 195, 202-203, 258, 295, 299 301, 303, 305, 407, 427, 448, 457 future 25 165, 169, 174-177 garbage 238, 283 genome 15, 57-62, 78, 91, 217, 226, 257, 272-274, 290, 321, 323, 325, 329, 333, 369, 424 geological evolution 65 geophysiological theory 475 geriatrics 279-281 germ cells 267, 270-271
492
gerontology 279-280, 289 geterothroph organism 118 glaciation period 109 global warming 98-101, 104, 110-111, 147, 149-150, 375 globalization 92, 103-104, 219, 221, 251, 336, 393 glucoses 63 golden minority 341 gorilla 69 graft 272, 292-300, 304 greenhouse effect 147, 149-150, 153, 179, 183, 460 guanine 57 habitable zone 469, 473, 481-482 haplorhines 70 heaven 437-440, 442-443, 451, 453 heidelbergensis 75 helioseismology 22, 27-29 hemoglobin 258 herbivore 157, 159, 161 hominoids 69, 72-73 Homo erectus 75, 77, 81 Homo ergaster 75 Homo floresiensis 77 Homo habilis 75-76, 81 Homo sapiens 75, 100, 102, 118, 260 Homohelicity 63 human body 263, 321-322, 325-328, 331-333 human history 379, 466 hurricane 362, 384 hydrosphere 133, 199 hydrostatic equilibrium 25 hylobatidae 70 hypermutation 284 hypertension 259
Index
identifiability 285 immittance 317-318 immune system 255, 263, 380 immunization 388, 397 immunodeficiency virus 380 impactor 35, 43-52, 54 industrialization 180, 219-220 infarct 259, 291-293, 295, 297-298 inflation 231, 235, 241-243, 245, 246-247, 249-250, 339 information complexes 338 infrastructure 36, 177, 182, 221, 222, 226, 230, 382, 383, injury 292-294, 297 inorganic substance 65 international relations 351-353, 354, 359-360 invasive 98, 161, 163-164, 307, 311 irrigation 129, 204, 389, 392, 396, 400 ischemic heart disease 291 justice 224, 337, 340-342, 354, 358, 374 Kolmogorov-entropy 211, 213 Kyoto protocol 150, 384 left ventricle 291, 295 lemming 90 lemurs 70 leukocytosis 298 levee 121, 129 lifespan 69, 277, 280, 282-285, 287-288 lithosphere 124 litigation 101 lorises 70
Index
Lyapunov-exponents 211, 213 lysosome 283 macrocosm 373 malignization 271, 311 marrow 271, 297-301, 304-305 masticatory 74 medieval age 205 memories 239 mesenchymal cells 299-300 metabolism 67, 130, 226, 279-282, meteorite 13, 34, 37, 43, 51, 53, 63, 407, 441, 449-450, 482 microbe mats 65 microbiota 14, 263 micrococcus 17 microcosm 373 microfungus 17 microwave resonance therapy 321, 334 migration 125, 260, 303, 390-391, 393-394, 400,406 Miocene 70, 72-73, 80 mitochondrial mutation 282, 284, 286 mortality 164, 245, 259, 277, 288, 407 morula 268 mosquito 388 moulding 33-34 mouse 61, 270, 285, 292, 300, 302 mutability 290, 361, 363-364 myoblasts 293-294, 296, 297-298, 300, 304 myocardium 291-292, 295-296, 298, 300, 302-304 nanobacteria 10-11, 15 nanomaterials 434 nanoscience 205, 434
493
narcotics 363, 385-386, 396 natural gas 181-186, 201-202, 392 neandertals 75-77 nuclear summer 65 nuclear tests 204 nuclear transfer 271-273 nuclear waste 105, 108, 110, 114, 149, 151-152 nuclear winter 65 nucleic acids 63 nucleosynthesis 4, 17, 26-27, 29 oil 63, 170, 179-185, 187, 197, 201-202, 240, 335, 339-340, 389-390, 392, 394, 396, 437 Oligocene 72 orangutans 69, 73 ovum 267, 271 ozone holes 179 paleoatmosphere 137-138 panspermia 4-6, 8-9, 13, 15-17, 19, 469, 477, 479-480, 482 pathology 67, 279-281, 284 perch 125 peril 219 permittivity 308 phantom energy 231, 234, 239-240, 246 phosphate 63, 258 photodissociation 137 photoionization 137 photosynthesis 6, 33, 150, 155, 187, 197, 199, 471 pike 125 planetesimals 31, 32-33, 35, 37 planktivore 125, 157 plasmoid 136-137 Platoon 106 Platyrrhini 70, 72 pluripotent stem cells 270
494
political leadership 352 pollutants 8, 1121,124, 128, 155, 158 polyaromatic 8 polymorphism 260, 273 polypeptides 63 pond 3, 158 population 10, 15, 29, 37, 42, 73, 77-78, 97, 118, 122, 124-125, 150, 157, 179, 181-182, 187, 219-223, 225, 229, 259, 260, 262, 291, 294, 297-298, 300, 331-332, 337-339, 342, 362, 370, 379, 383, 386, 388, 391, 394-395, 398-399, 404-405, 457, 460-463, 482 prebiotic chemistry 3 predator 157, 164, 457 predictions 8, 23-28, 69, 79, 98, 109, 139, 212, 243, 246, 408 pre-islamic epoch 438 prevention 52, 227, 263, 308, 319, 353, 381, 388, 395 primates 69-72, 81, 298 proconsul 72-73 productivity 207-208, 336, 340, 344, 369, 386, 430, 470-471 prokaryotic 480 prophet Muhammad 442-443 prosperity 379, 383, 398 protein translation 324 proteomics 164, 226-227 protostar 32, 194, 482 quantum medicine 321-326, 333-334 quantum organization 321 quantum-mechanical system 328-329 quintessence 231, 234-235, 237-238 Qur’an 437-439, 441-443, 445-453
Index
radioactivity 7, 33, 152, 204 reefs 98, 158-160, 163 regolith 63-64 renascence 107 retrodictions 69 safety 105, 109, 203-204, 294, 298-299, 301-302, 362-363, 386 scar 125, 149, 300-301 scavenger 374 Schrodinger equation 329 seawater 152, 203-204, 312 security 104, 203-204, 225, 342, 351, 353, 358-359, 369, 379, 381, 383, 385-386, 398-400, 404 seismicity 114, 204 shampoo 387 shark 3340, 384-385, 387-388 siamangs 70 sickle 258 sivapithecus 73 skeleton 71, 73, 81, 268, 323, 325-326, 333 soap 387 social pyramid 341, 344 Socrates 106 soft tissue 65 solar energy 116, 187, 197-200 space meteorology 133-135, 141 space-time 241 Spanish influenza 361 spermatozoon 268 spirituality 217, 375, 406 stability 86-88, 99, 116, 118-119, 134, 149, 156, 165, 173-175, 182 193, 344, 361, 363-364, 383-384, 411, 430, 450-451, 480 statesman 353, 359 stellar embryo 193-194
495
Index
stem cells 269-271, 274-275, 284-285, 293, 296-298, 302, 304-306 strepsirhines 70-72 strife 399 sulphide 14 Sun 5-7, 23-30, 34, 41-42, 98, 103-104, 106-107, 111, 134, 136-142, 187-189, 191, 195197, 224, 329, 335, 342-343, 404, 437, 439, 441-447, 449, 450-452, 465, 475, 478, 481 supergravity 239 symbiotic relationship 347, 351 synergization 135 superorganism 123 sura 438, 444, 451 susceptance 317-318 symbiosis 63, 171 synergy 129, 387 tarsiiformes 70-71 technological Big Bang 206 telomerase 273, 286 terrorism 91-92, 224, 339, 356, 358-359, 363, 383, 386, 388, 396-399 thermodynamics laws 190 thermonuclear reactions 25, 194 thermophiles 6 third millennium 322, 354
thorium 202-203 thymine 57 timber 128, 385 tobacco 259, 364, 385-387 totipotent SC 270 traditional biology 321, 324 transcriptase 381 transmembrane 286 trawling 157, 163 tritium 202-203 tropopause 28 tsunamis 224, 362 uranium-235 201 urbanization 124, 219-221, 223 vaccine 286-287, 381, 395, 397 vent 6, 14 verdict 388 versatile 384-285 verse 439-440 viroids 15 virus complexes 63 volcanic activity 49, 65 willow 128 yeasts 61 zooplankton 125, 130 zygote 267, 269
