FOREIGN POLICY 2011 December

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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

year ago, N obel Peace Prize laureate and former International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed EIBaradei ranked 20th on FoREIGN PoLICY's list of top Global Thinkers as we saluted his audacity in returning to Egypt for the daunting task of somehow bringing democracy to his homeland. " I see a decaying temple, a lmost collapsing," we quoted ElBaradei saying of Hosni Mubarak's three-decade-old regime. "It will fall sooner rather than later." At the time, few heralded his prediction, which seemed as much the wishful thinking of a determined activist as an actual guide of events to come. But of course, E!Baradei was right. And this year, we salute him and an extraordinary collection of brave men and women who helped make 2011 the year that democracy- haltingly, incompletely to be sure, but also dazzlingly and astonishingly quickly-came to broad swaths of the Middle East that had long languished under despotism and decay. From ElBaradei and young Coogle marketing executive Wael Ghonim, who helped make Egypt's revolution, toppling Mubarak in a mere 18 days, to exceptional journalists and writers like AI Jazeera's Wadah Khanfar and novelist Alaa AI Aswany, to activists in countries where the revolutions remain bloody and incomplete, like Yemen's Tawakkol Karman and Syria's Ali Ferzat and Razan Zaitouneh- thi s group has demonstrated that ideas still have the power to transform our world, and for this we have named them 2011's top Global Thinkers. The Arab Spring they launched is, not surprisingly, a theme that runs throughout this special issue of FoREIGN PoLICY. We recognize many of the players whose ideas shaped this year's momentous events, from several ambassadors whose blu nt candor in the Wik iLeaked cables helped send activi sts into the streets to the decades-long work of intellectual agitators for revolution Srdja Popovic and Gene Sharp, who may not have exported democracy in a suitcase but certainly helped write the how-to manuals for it. At the same time, FP's third an nual Global Thinkers issue ranges widely across a world in transition to recognize those dominating the intellectual marketplace of ideas. With Europe's economy in crisis and the American recovery precariously perched on the brink of another recession, many on our list are economists helping us understand and navigate this great period of tumultwith a bias toward those, like the writing duo of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff and p erennial bear Nouriel Roubini, who called it right when others didn't. Some thinkers make our list because of the sheer power of their thinking to shape results, for better or worse: the troika of central bankers from China, Europe, and the United States, for instance, who must steer the global economy while always mindful of the disastro us failure their predecessors wrought in the Great Depression. And with a U.S. election season looming, we recognize, too, those whose ideas have set the battle lines, from Barack Obama to the feuding duo of Dick Cheney and Condoleezza Rice, whose Bush-era debates, for good or ill, still very much shape the world of American power we live in today. But for a ll those whose powerful positions put their ideas at center stage, there are many who are on our list for the sheer power of their ideas to assert themselves, fro m the audacity of Chinese artist Ai Weiwei, not silenced even by being hauled off to jail, to the un likely global publishing sensation Stephane Hessel who, a t age 94, has channeled the spirit of the French Resistance in which he participated to become the intellectua l agitator of choice for this year's economy-driven protests from Spain to Occupy Wall Street. We hope you' ll enjoy this special issue dedicated to their work. More than 70 of the Thinkers took the time to share their own ideas, and even their reading lists, with you in our annual survey; it's a unique collection of the wisdom of this very smart crowd. Last but certainly not least, don't forget to look at our special opening section on the year's most overlooked stories. (Hint: There's more than one Asian power spending billions of dollars on a new arms race.) Next year's Global Thinkers may have a lot to say about them.

A

-Susan Glasser

DE CEMB E R

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10 THE STORIES YOU MISSED IN 2011 1

India's Military Buildup • 'New Europe' Falls Out of Love With the Euro • Mexico's Drug War Moves South • Peak Camel? • The U.S. lmmigration Crackdown • Pakistan 's Other War • Piracy Goes Global • Asia's New DMZ • The War on Nukes Stalls • Rwanda 's Wrong Turn

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THE 2011 FP GLOBAL THINKERS INDEX

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THE COVER: ILLUSTRATION BY SEAN McCABE FOR FP

D ECEMBER

201

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Your Global Thinkers

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HIS YEAR'S GLOBAL THINKERS list is in the books, and we couldn't have done it without the nominations of our readers. H ere's a look at some of th e most interesting suggestions that ca me up just short. (There's a lways next year.. . . ) Go online to take the 2011 Global Thinkers survey for yourself, a nd check out their picks for what to read-and give-over the holidays. David Graeber, "anarchist anthropologist," University of London: "For his book, Debt: The First 5,000 Years.... H e reminds us that the economic system we have today is likely to be vastl y different from the one we will have 100 years fro m now and that it needs to be." -nominated by "PERRY_ D L"

Anatol Lieven, professor in the department of war studies at King's College London and author of Pakistan: AHard Country: "For writing the most well-timed book of the year. It's almost spooky: Anatol Lieven's new book on Pakistan came out [j ust] before the assassi nation of Osama bin Laden rerurned the country once again to the global spotlight. " -nominated by "MANDALAY"

Lars E.O. Svensson, deputy governor of Sweden's central bank: "For advocating creative monetary policies, notably negative interest rates, at a time when many centra l bankers (including one Ben Bernanke, who regularly populates your list) have chosen to eschew their roles as safeguards of economic growth. " - nominated by "SANC HK"

Richard A. Clarke, former special advisor to President George W. Bush on cybersecurity: For his book o n cyberwar. - nominated by

" DEBORAH SH ERIDAN"

The Secret Qadda~ Files How did the world look to the late Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi? FoREIGN PoLICY obtained an exclusive collection of never-before-seen historical photos and family snapshots taken fro m Qaddafi's private homes and intelligence ministries as his regime fell. Collected by Human Rights Watch emergencies director Peter Bouckaert a nd photographed by freelance photojo urnalist Michael Christopher Brown, the special report on ForeignPolicy.com includes hundreds of images, together adding up to a unique and intimate portrait of life with Muammar-from his famil y wedding celebrations to shocking photos of torture victims, from portraits of a young, handsome revolutionary to the bloated tyrant he would become.

fA~fB~~K fAV~Rilf:

"Haiti Doesn't Need

!~~:a!~s~~eMat"

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nothing if not charitable, but from parachuting Pop-Tarts into Afghanistan to sending clowns to the Balkans, ou r visual history of the West's misguided attempts to send its hand-me-downs to the developing world had aid skeptics all a-t w itter. Thanks but no thanks!

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WELCOME TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD GW's Elliott School of International Affairs is just steps from some of the most influential U.S., international, and nongovernmental organizations in the world. Our unique location in the heart of Washington, D.C. enriches our teaching and research by giving our students and faculty unparalleled opportunities to engage with the international leaders who walk through our doors on a regular basis. Learn more about our innovative undergraduate and graduate programs or view some of our superb special events online at www.elliott.gwu.edu. Now more than ever, there is no better place to study global issues than GW's Elliott School of International Affairs.

CONNECTED TO THE WORLD The Elliott School of International Affairs

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FOREIGN P OLICY

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FoREIGN Po LICY

l~mA'~ MllllARY Bml~~r China's new aircraft carrier-actually just a refitted Gor bachev-era Soviet model purchased fo r $20 million fro m the Russia ns-made interna tional head lines when it began sea tri als this year, signaling Beij ing's growing m ilitary am bitions in East Asia. But it isn't the only As ian giant investing heavily in new military ha rdware. India has kept pace with its neighbor to the north and, in some areas, is actually exceeding it-a development tha t, though much less noted, is a sign of the growing militarization of the region as a new genera tion of emerging powers with global ambitions jockeys for regional supremacy. India is now the world's largest weapons importer, according to a 2011 report by arms watchdog SI PRI , accounting for 9 percent of the world 's international arms transfers-most fro m R ussia- between 2006 a nd 2010. India will spend an estimated $80 billion on military modernization progra ms by 2015, according to an estimate from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. In particular, India is focusing on sea power, a crucial new area of competition. The country is planning to spend almost $45 billi on over the next 20 years on 103 new warships, incl uding

ASIA'S NAVAL BOOM

.............. •••••••• ............. ................. Planned expansion, 2011-2030.

-+ NUMBER OF NEW SHIPS

China: 135 • S. Korea: 128 • India: 103

................. ....................... ............ ........................... ............................

............... •••••••• ................ .................... L

-+ SPENDING ON NEW SHIPS

INDIA

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destroyers and nuclear submarines. By compari· son, China's in vestment over the same period is projected to be around $25 billion for 135 vessels, accord ing to data on both countries from maritime analysis firm AMI International. On top of long-running tensions with Pa kistan and festering insurgencies by Kashmiri separatists a nd M aoist rebels, India's military planners a re increasingly concerned about the prospect of military hostilities with Chinahence the new foc us on nava l power. For now, the United States seems much more comforta ble with India's military ambitions than China's. The Pentagon 's 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review welcomed "a more influential role in global affai rs" for India, incl uding in the Indian Ocean region. But there are some troubling signs that the area might not be big enough for two rising superpowers. In August, an unidentified Chinese warship confronted an Indian amphi bious assault ship near the coast of Vietnam and demanded t hat it expla in its presence in Chinese waters (the enco unter took place in a disputed part of the South China Sea claimed by Vietn am). Thankfully, the situation resulted in nothing more than some testy public statements from officials in all three countries, but it was yet another sign of an increasingly militarized Asia n seascape.

Source: AM I I nternational

''Acute famine in the horn of Afnca ... and an ongomg tadure to recognize and" ork "nh a largcl) tunct10nal ~omaldand and Punt land." • "The European banking crisis \\as )11\'en far too little .1ttent1on for the tirst SIX months of the )e.!r."

D ECEMBER 2011

11

THE NEW NEW EUROPE How the crisis is reshaping the continent.

For all the talk of Greeks and Italians seriously entertaining the though t of dumping Europe's common currency in exchange for good o ld drachmas and lira, the more troubling indicator for the decade-old euro may be all the Eastern European countries tha t have pushed for years to be part of the monetary union but are now having second tho ughts. On Ja n. 1, Estonia became the 17th country to adopt the euro, but it might be a w hile before it has company. Poland was du e to join the eurozone in 2012, but that goal has been indefi nitely postponed. ("If you base a monetary union on aspira tions a nd being proEuropean, yo u ma y have problems in 10 yea rs," Ja n Filip Sta nilk o, a Polish a nalyst, told CNBC.com.) In April, Bulgaria's ce nterright govern ment pushed back a plan to join in 2013, citing the need for more preparation. Romania's president also suggested its 201 5 target date could be pushed back by "one or two years." Latvia an d Lithuania had been

keen to follow Estonia into the eurozone as well, but both now say th eir cur ren t ta rget dates are unrealistic, and Lithuania's central bank chief has ca utioned tha t membership is " not a must-have-or-die thing." Only two years ago, eurozone membership was being touted as a solut ion to Eastern Europe's debt worries. A leaked IMF report even recommended that the process be accelerated, arguing tha t "euroisation " would not only help w ith the debt problem but also mea n "removing uncertainty and restoring confidence." But these countri es now worry about the straitj acket that being in a currency unio n has put on tro ubled European economies as they push t o recover. The shift in opinion in what U.S. Defense Secretary Dona ld Rumsfeld once defined as new Europe, where countries have long yearned for European integration, has been as rapid as it's surprising. Membership in the EU club isn 't what it used to be.

~ THE IRISH EXODUS: With its GDP falling nearly 8 percent in 2009, Ireland's emigration rate is currently the highest in the EU. Between April 2009 and 2010, 65,300 people left the Emerald Isle, the most since 1989. ~ BACK TO TURKEY: Germany's economic growth has remained impressive compared to its European counterparts, but inequality continues to rise and lower-income workers have seen stagnating wages. This may be why, after five decades of steady Turkish immigration into the country, 38 percent of ethnic Turkish graduates from German universities now say they want to return to thecountry their families left behind. More than half claim they don't feel at home in Germany. Some of this may be dueto lslamophobic sentiment in Germany, but many are also looking to participate in Turkey's recent economic boom-the country had the third-highest growth rate inthe G-20 last year. ~ COME HOME, POLAND: More than half of the 1.5 million Polish workers who left for Britain since 2004, taking advantage of the new freedom of movement under the EU, have now returned home, according to the Migration Policy Institute. This shouldn't be surprising: Poland's growth rate of 3.8 percent was stronger than any country in Western Europe last year, while British unemployment hovered around 8 percent. ~ THE END OF OPEN BORDERS?In May, Europe's interior ministers votedto allow countries once again to put emergency guard posts at some border crossings. The new rules mark the first major reversal in the trend toward moreopen borders that had been the signature achievement of European integration for 16 years.

"Vladimir Putin's btc't asccnston 111 RmSia.·· • "Success of the IARI' and bailout' of the auto compamc,." • "Japan and Germany, the \\orld\ third and tourth largest economies, mmmg 3\\,1) trom nucle.u cncrg\."

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F o R E I G N P oL I C Y

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MEXICO'S DRUG WAR MOVES SOUTH

A While the drug violence near Mexico's V ' northern border has become a major

~ =political issue in the United States, less noticed has been the disastrous effect the conflict is having on countries to the south. Drug mafias such as the Sinaloa and Zetas cartels, in search of new territory and looking to escape the Mexican government's crackdown, are increasingly setting up shop in the politically fragile states of Central America. With the addition of Belize and El Salvador this year, all seven countries in Central America are now on the White House's list of major drugtrafficking states. Sixty percent of the cocaine that enters the United States through Mexico first travels through Central America, according to a Congressional Research Service report. Homicide rates in four of the seven countries have increased significantly in the last five years-in Honduras, they've more than doubled. In May, Guatemala saw its worst massacre since the 1996 end of its civil war, when 27 people were decapitated by drug gangs in the country's north. Entire regions are now effectively under the control of the Zetas, Mexico's second-largest drug carrel, which has access to machine gLms and rocket-propelled grenades and has even built its own airstrips in the jLmgle. The Guatemalan government launched a major military offensive against the Mexican carrels in the first few months of this year, bur failed to expel them. There are widespread reports that a number of Guatemalan politicians are receiving kickbacks from the gangs or otherwise tied up in cartel activity. Unti l now, the cocaine itself has been processed almost exclusively where coca is grown in the Andean region of South America. But in March, the first cocaineprocessing lab ever discovered in Central America was found in Honduras. In El Salvador, which has also seen its crime rate skyrocket, Sinaloa and the Zetas are believed to have established a lliances with local gangs such as the infamous Mara Salvatrucha. This isn't just Mexico's drug war a nymore.

\ \

'I

Shortly before his death in 1960, English explorer and Arabist St. John Philby predicted that the camel would disappear from Arabia within 30 years. At the time, he was laughed at, but today, ultramodern Saudi Arabia is increasingly relying on camel imports, a shift that has had the largely overlooked effect of putting a strain on herds around the world . The stock of meat-producing camels in the kingdom decreased from a high of 426,000 in 1997 to just 260 ,000 today, a drop of 39 percent, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Thousands of camels are slaughtered every year during the hajj pilgrimage-hence the need for imports. But where to get them? The animals were once as common as sq uirrels in Pakistan, but the country's camel population is now down to about 700,000 thanks largely to demand from the camel·racing industry in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Overall , the Asian camel population decreased nearly 20 percent between 1994 and 2004. The biggest winner has been Australia, which boasts the world's largest remaining population of w ild camels- descendants of the animals brought by British settlers from India in the 19th century-and has profited from the demand by shipping the animals to Saudi Arabia to be slaughtered for food. In fa mine-plagued Somalia , there has been a reported mass die-off of camels-a sou rce of transportation , livelihood, and sustenance for many families. Some tribesmen report losing more than half of their herds. In previous famines in Africa, camels have been considered an early warning system for human deaths. "Camels are the last animals to die, and once they start dying, it is only a matter of time before people start dying," a Somali elder told the U.N.'s IRIN news service in 2009. Sadly, his observation has proved prophetic.

D ECE MB ER

20 11 13

IN BOX STORIES YOU MISSED OBAMA THE HAWK It may be hard to remember now, but America's current president first distinguished himself as an anti-war candidate, winning a Nobel Peace Prize after only a few months on the job. But as president, Barack Obama has more often than not played the tough guy.

-+ AFGHANISTAN: By the end of this year, Obama will make good on his campaign promise to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq- though, as many have pointed out, on a timetable negotiated by his predecessor. In Afghani stan, however, it has been a different story. Obama ordered 30,000 additional troops to the country in 2009 as part of a "surge" strategy meant to give Afghan forces breathing room to increase their own capacity. The surge troops are due to be removed by the end of 2012. -+ WAR ON TERROR: The killings of Osama bin Laden and Anwar ai-Awlaki have gotten all the attention, but those were just the best-known examples of the Obama administration's massive assassination campaign targeting al Qaeda and the Taliban's leadership, mostly through the use of unmanned drones. As of October 2011, according to research by the New America Foundation, the United States had carried out 235 drone strikes in Pakistan under Obama, compared with only 42 such strikes during George W. Bush's second term. Up to 2,200 people may have been killed in these strikes, of whom about 20 percent were civilians. The administration has also ramped up drone strikes against militant targets in Yemen and Somalia. -+ INTERVENTION: Aself-described admirer of George H.W. Bush's foreign policy, Obama might have been fairly termed a Bush 1-style realist for his first two years. But in Libya this year, the administration tore up the playbook and committed itself to armed humanitarian intervention. Although critics accused Obama of foot-dragging, the beginning of airstrikes just a month after protests started in Libya was actually light speed by the standards of previous interventions. Near the end of the year, the administration also committed U.S. trainers to the fight against the brutal Lord's Resistance Army in Central Africa.

-+ DRUG WAR: The Obama administration had advertised agentler approach to drug enforcement. Early in his term, White House drug czar Gil Kerlikowske pushed to ban the term "drug war," saying, "We're not at war with people in this country." But the shift isn't reflected in the numbers. More than 1.6 million people were arrested on drug charges in each of the first two years of the Obama administration-the average for the Bush years was 1.8 million-and the vast majority of these were nonviolent possession cases. The administration has also proposed a substantial increase in funding for Mexico's heavily militarized drug war.

THE U.S. IMMIGRATION CRACKDOWN As the 2012 Republican presidential ) candidates fight it out over who would • ~ best secure the U.S.-Mexico border and blast states for providing services to illegal immigrants, the White House has been quietly waging the toughest-ever campaign on undocumented immigrants. Despite U.S. President Barack Obama's pledge to pass comprehensive immigration reform-a goal repeatedly stymied in Congressdeportations have reached all-time highs. A record 392,000 undocumented aliens were deported in fiscal 2010, and this past fiscal year that number was nearly 400,000. As of October, almost 1.2 million people had been deported under the Obama administration, compared with about 1.5 million over the eight years of George W. Bush's presidency. The administration has also been cracking down on the employers of illegal immigrants. Twice as many businesses were investigated in the first year of the Obama administration as in the last year of Bush's term. In August, under pressure from Hispanic groups, the administration announced new guidelines under which pending deportations will be reviewed and those who pose no threat to public safety and haven't flagrantly violated laws will have their cases deferred. (These constitute about 50 percent of recent deportations, according to Secretary of H omeland Security Janet Napolitano. ) The guidelines, however, still allow significant "prosecutorial discretion" to immigration officials to determine which immigrants are dangerous. The administration's strategy may have been to shore up Obama's right flank before undertaking a sweeping overha ul of immigration law. As Napolitano put it, "Smart, resolute enforcement by the department can keep Americans safe, foster legal immigration to America, protect legitimate commerce, and lay the groundwork for a more comprehensive reform. " But with progress on an immigration bill in Congress looking unlikely anytime soon, for now it's more stick than carrot.

~

-+ ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS DEPORTED

1.~ milliOn

BUSH PRESIDENCY (8 years) OBAMA PRESIDENCY(as of October)

l,l million

"Argentina's seem1ngl) sre.HI) ded111e row.1rd ngged eleu1on .lllroa.Kv." • "Fmergence of .1 global gas market.'' • "Ireland's IIKlplelll economK recm er)." • "The declme of fishing stocks 111 the oceans." • "Commodity price increases based on specula non not tood shortages."

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F O REI G N P O LI C Y

PAKISTAN'S OTHER WAR ·o/ ..

Baluchistan may be Pakistan's largest province, covering near~,- I "" !1!!7 ly half the country's land area, but the raging separatist violence in the regionsometimes called Pakistan's secret war-gets only a fraction of the attention that the country's other crises receive. Separatist groups, the largest of which is the Baluchistan Liberation Army, have been waging an insurgency since 2007 in the resource-rich province, which borders Iran and Afghanistan. It's the fifth Baluchi uprising since Pakistan's independence in 1947, and even by the country's standards, the province appears increasingly out of control. Baluchistan saw the highest number of militant attacks of any Pakistani province in 2010, and the trend has continued in 20 11, with multiple bombings of key gas pipelines, the murder of Punjab settlers who have moved to the region, and the assassinations of several prominent politicians and oil-company employees. The Pakistani state's response has also been brutal. A Human Rights Watch report documented the killings of 150 people between January and June-mostly young men active in Baluchi separatist politics-in "kill and dump" operations that were likely carried out by Pakistani security forces. Brad Adams, Human Rights Watch's Asia director, described the crackdown as an "abusive freeKabu'.. Islamabad for-all" that calls into question Afghanistan .' --·-·., Lahore the Pakistani government's "willPakistan • ingness or ability to control the military and intelligence agencies." Baluchistan's instability has inter·• Karachi national consequences. The Taliban, headquartered in t he provincial capital of Quetta, use Baluchistan's 800-mile-long border to slip in and out of Afgha nistan. The sparsely popul ated region also provides safe haven for dr ug smugglers and Ira nian rebel gro ups T he CIA is believed to la un ch drone strikes from bases in Baluchistan. And then, of course, there's India, which Pakistan has repea tedly accused of funding the rebels, a charge India vehemently denies. The mastermind of the 9/11 atta cks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, is an ethnic Baluchi, as is his nephew Ramzi Youse£, who plotted the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. For now, the Pakistani government is benefiting from the scant medi a attention given to the region and its problems. But it can't be swept under the rug forever.

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30 attacks off the coast of West Africa

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(asof Nov.2)

Somalia's pirates are on pace for another record year in 2011, with 199 attacks as of October versus 126 over the same period in 2010. And unfortunately, modern piracy, thought to have been successfully contained elsewhere in recent years, is not a phenomenon confined to Somali privateers in the Gulf of Aden. Global piracy is back in a big way. The hottest new zone for pirates is West Africa, whose oil-rich Gulf of Guinea ha s see n a spike in attacks this year. Nineteen attacks were reported off the coast of Benin in 2011, after none in 2010. There were also six off the Nigerian coast and three off the coast of Ghana. Many more likely go unreported. In October, the presidents of Nigeria and Benin held the region's first ever head-of-state summit devoted to piracy. West African pirates are a bit more traditional than their Somali counterparts-they tend to go after a ship's cargo rather than kidnapping for ransom money. Sailors have been tied up, beaten with Number of pirate rifle butts, and whipped with electrical cables. In attacks worldwide some cases, entire crews have been shot. Whereas during the first nine Somalia's piracy is often seen as a function of the months of 2011. country's on-land instability, the same can hardly be said of Ghana, one of Africa's most stable and peaceful democracies, with a projected growth rate of 13.5 percent in 2011. It's thought that the region's oil boom is proving a draw for modern-day pirates. And it's not just Africa. Indonesia's International Chamber of Commerce reported this year that pirate attacks are at their highest level since 2007. Even Peru , where piracy is virtually unheard of, saw an attack this year on a Japanese fishing trawler by a gang of criminals ca lling itself the "pirates of th e sea." Ove rall , the first nine months of this year saw 352 attacks-a record level. In the past two years, the United States, Europe, and even China have launched military initiatives to battle piracy. But as the numbers show, the potential riches of high-seas crime make it very hard to stop the rise of new-age buccaneers .

...1he grm\lllg populanty and power of Turkey .1mong Ar.llh ... • '"Iran h." heen mt·r>h,Jdm\ed I" the Ar.1h Spnng, \et the '""e'nude.u proldcr.Hlon, "'ppon tor terror""'· nHenu l ch n.lllllcs, cumon11c troubles, .111d lc.1d-up to 20 I ) pre"dent1.1l clectlon-.uc no le" 1111porum." DE CEM BER 20 11

15

IN BOX STORIES YOU MISSED

ASIA'S NEW DMZ -

, While the world was transfixed by events in the Middle East this • """! February, a century-old territorial conflict in Southeast Asia briefly became a shooting war when Cambodia and Thailand came to blows over a long-disputed religious site, a clash that may foreshadow growing instability in an increasingly volatile region. The two neighbors have long argued over ownership of the 11th-century Preah Vihear Temple, a UNESCO World Heritage site, in a quarrel dating back to the drawing of the border between Siam and thenFrench Cambodia in the early 20th century. In 1962, the U.N.'s International Court of Justice awarded ownership of the templeoriginally Hindu, now Buddhist-to Cambodia, but Thailand has never completely accepted the judgment. In recent years, Abhisit Vejjajiva, w ho was prime minister ~

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from 2008 until last August, upped his aggressive rhetoric under pressure from the Thai nationalist " Yellow Shirt" movement and sent troops into rhe region. From Feb. 4 to 16, the two sides continually exchanged artillery fire in the disputed area-each cotmtry clain1s the other started it-with as many as 28 people killed and thousands of civilians displaced. "This is a real war. It is not a clash," proclain1ed Cam bodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. Thankfully, if it was a war, it was a very short and limited one. In July, the United Nations imposed a demilitarized zone around the temple and o rdered both countries to withdraw their forces. The truce is being monitored by Indonesian observers, but the dispute has led some to argue that Southeast Asia's regional body-ASEANneeds its own peacekeeping force. Tensions

have eased somewhat since Abhisit was voted out of office in favor of "Red Shirt"backed Yingluck Shinawatra. Although the crisis seems to have a bated for now, it's just one episode of a period of intense political tmmoil for Thailand, a key U.S. ally in counterterrorism and counternarcotics campaigns. The country has seen large-scale and often violent demonstrations by the largely rural Red Shirts and the royalist Yellow Shirts, and is facing an insurgency in the south by Islamist militants who were accused by Amnesty International this year of perpetrating war crimes against civilians. The possible return of Yingluck's brother Thaksin, the exiled former prime minister and business tycoon who is still wanted on corruption charges in his home country, is another potential flashpoint.

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THE WORLD'S MOST CONTROVERSIAL CULTURAL SITES

Where ancient history meets modern politics.

THE TEMPLE MOUNT

THE AMARNATH CAVES

TAWANG MONASTERY

One of the hoi iest sites for both Judaism and Islam, the Temple Mount in Jerusalem is the spot wherethe world was first created according to Jewish tradition and the sitewhere Mohammed ascended to Heaven according to the Quran. It's long been a flashpoint in the IsraeliPalestinian conflict, and access to the site, including its famous AI-Aqsa mosque, is tightly controlled by the Israeli government. The site has been the setting of clashes between government security forces and Palestinian worshippers, as well as hard-line Jewish nationalists, who favor rebuilding the temple, destroyed by the Romans around 70 A.D.

Every year, hundreds of thousands of Hindus make the long pilgrimage to these caves, high in the Kashmir Valley, which contain an ice stalagmite said to resemble the god Shiv a. Unfortunately, the site lies smack in the middle of the insurgency-racked state of Jammu and Kashmir. In 2000, 30 pilgrims to the caves were massacred by Kashmiri separatists. More recently, massive protests erupted when the Indian government attempted to allocate land from Jammu and Kashmir to house Hindu pilgrims visiting the shrine. Local Muslim activists, who described the plan as "Israel-like," eventually won their case.

Both the regional center of Tibetan Buddhist life- it's where the current Dalai Lama sought refuge immediately following his flight from Tibet in 1959- and the largest monastery in India, Tawang is today located in the Indian-Tibetan border state of Arunachal Pradesh. But Beijing argues that the region's historical links to Tibet should make it part of China. The Chinese government has for decades placed pressure on the monastery, ranging from outright invasion during the 1962 Sino-Indian war, when Chinese soldiers damaged large portions of it, to more recent diplomatic protests surrounding a 2009 visit by the Dalai Lama.

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This complex includes rare frescoes dating back to the eighth century and is considered one of the most historically important sites in Georgian Orthodox Christianity. Thanks to a Soviet-era cartographical quirk, however, half of it is located in Azerbaijan. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Georgia has been pushing to have the border shifted toallow Georgian monks- and the public- full access to the site. But owing to the area's military significance, Azerbaijan has been reluctant to part with it. Despite several rounds of negotiations, the situation remains unresolved. "There is no room for territorial exchange. There are no negotiations over this issue," Azerbaijan's deputy foreign minister has said.

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Government Accountabi lity Office redova for trying to sell a kilogram of stolen uranium worth at least $20 million. port issued in September. "Theoretically, There have been 500 cases of attempted we know [where the nuclear material cross-border smuggling of nuclear mais kept]. But we don't have a good accounting of where it a ll is," one source terials in the last 15 years, according to familiar with the report told Wired. U.N. data. Many more likely go uncleBudget-cutting in Congress may also tected. Meanwhile, a bill introduced in both the House and Senate in 2009 that be hampering the U.S. effort to secure dangerous nuclear materials, ac~ would strengthen penalties for nuclear cording to ana lysis by the Center smuggling is still stuck in commitfor Arms Control and Non-Protee. Congress also shows no sign liferation. A House bill this year of endorsing the Comprehensive would have slashed the White N uclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), an House funding request for the agreement signed 15 years ago by President Bill Clinton but never Global Threat Reduction lnitiarive (GTRI), a program to secure ratified. The administration has Pounds of "weaponpromised a renewed push to get nuclear facilities in the former usable" nuclear Soviet Union, by $85 million. material shipped CTBT passed but hasn't set a date The GTRI funding was pre- overseas that the for bringing it before the closely served in the Senate version of U.S. now can't divided Senate. account for. New START may have been the bill, but Congress already cut $123 million from GTRI in 2011. progress, but the finish line of a world The threats in question are quite real. without nuclear weapons is still a long way off. In June, six men were arrested in Mol-

THE WAR ON NUKES STAUS •

Speaking in Prague near the beginning of his presidency, ~ Barack Obama promised arenewed U.S. "commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." At the end of last year, the administration achieved two of the planned steps toward that goal with the ratification of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia and the hosting of a 47-nation conference on nuclear security. But progress on Obama's other major pledge, a "new international effort to secure a ll vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years," has been much slower gomg. The United States can't account for 5,900 pounds of " weapon-usable" nuclear material that it once shipped overseas to help other countries' civilian nuclear programs, according to a

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re\olunon. "I he world has gone from connected to hyperconnected.·· • ...

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IN BOX STORIES YOU MISSED

RWANDA'S WRONG TURN In September, the U.S. Senate .-; unanimously approved a bi• - ~ lateral investment treaty with Rwanda, the first such agreement with a sub-Saharan African country since 1998. The State Department praised the deal, calling it a demonstration of "Rwanda's conm1itment to the economic reforms that will help enable sustainable economic development and opportunity." Foggy Bottom hopes the agreement can be a model for similar treaties with other countries in the future. Rwanda's economic reforms have been widely touted as a rare African success story, with growth around 7 percent per year over the last five years. President Paul Kagame has also earned plaudits for his environmental initiatives and efforts to include women in government (they now make up more than 50 percent of the

•

lower house of parliament). He visits the United States frequently and has become a fixture on the tony-conference circuit. But disturbing signs have emerged about Kagame's commitment to democracy. During the lead-up to last year's presidential election-which the former Tutsi rebel leader won with 93 percent-the vice president of a major opposition party and ilie acting editor of a critical newspaper were murdered, prompting the United Nations to demand an investigation. Over the last two years, Kagame's re-

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>> Tour de Timor: A Resilient Nation Speeds Ahead » U.S.-Timor-Leste Relationship Expands >> Timor-Leste Leads g7+ at Busan Summit

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

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Members of the House Democracy Partnership visiting Timor-Leste in 2011.

A Strengthening Friendship U.S. Congress & Timor- Leste Parliament Set Up Exchange DILl/WASHINGTON, D.C. - Ask sitting Congressmen to share their opinions ofTimorLeste after recently meeting parliamentary and civil society leaders, and these are their responses: "We all have a place in our hearts for Timor-Leste:· Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) said. "I was impressed," said Rep. Sam Farr (DCA). "It's a beautiful place. I saw a people and a country getting a foothold," observed Rep. David Dreier (R-CA) . In a critical region of the world,limor-Leste has emerged as an important country to the U.S. for its nascent democracy; and, with every passing year, the relationship has strengthened. One symbol of the mutual commitment is the House Democracy Partnership (HDP).The Partnership is a bipartisan Congressional initiative that sets aside funding and provides institutional support for partner legislatures overseas, including limor-Leste. The current 2 TIMOR-LESTE

commission has 20 members, 10 Republicans and 9 Democrats with one vacant seat. Rep. Dreier is chairman and Rep. Price is the ranking Democratic member. Timor-Leste was selected to join the program in 2005, th e same year the initiative started. ForTimor-Leste, that support has translated into creating a new parliamentary research service, integrating information technology into parliamentary operations and encouraging greater governmental oversight and efficiency. Other countries that are part of the program include Kenya, Liberia and Indonesia. Since the partnersh ip with Timor-Leste began, three Congressional and seven staff visits between the two cou ntries have taken place. During one session, for exampl e, Congressional staffers shared best outreach practices with Timorese parliamentarians. The idea of Congressional members assisting in the techni cal development of young democracies, is not novel. HDP is the indirect successor to the Frost-Solomon Task Force, which assisted the parliaments of 10

We all have a place in our hearts for Timor-Leste. Rep. David Price {D-N.C.)

new democracies including Poland,the Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovakia and Ukraine during the early to mid 1990s. The current initiative in Timor-Leste works through USAID and the Asia Foundation to provide technical and material support to partner parliaments on a person-to-person basis in areas including defense oversight, constitutional services, procedure and information services. In February 20 II , Rep. Dreier led a delegation of five members to Dili to meet and engage with parliamentary members. Rep. Lois Capps ( D-CA) and Jim McDermott (DWA) also were part of the group. The delegation spent much of its time in Dili, but congressional members also visited USAID-funded programs in other cities. In 2010,

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retired staff from the Congressional Research Service met in Dili with staff of the Timorese National Parliament to discuss improvements in legislative research and analysis. In July 2009,a congressional delegation spent three days in Timor-Leste to discuss independent research in the policymaking process and the value of committee operations. In 2008, the exchange went the other way: Parliamentarians from Dili traveled to the U.S. for legislative strengthening seminars. Over the years,there have been nine training seminars held for parliamentarian s in Washington, D.C. "I felt a great deal of empathy and receptivity to us;' Price said of his recent visit. Rep. Farr, said the partnership between Timor-Leste and the U.S. is ideal and allows for capacity bu ilding and civil society development. "I've described the Hou se Democracy

Partnersh ip as the Peace Corps committee of Congress;' said HOP member Rep. Farr."This is constructive and was something that was needed:' The bilateral relationship has deepened because of the partnership and will continue to do so in the coming years.Representatives said supporti ng emerging democracies is essential and worthwhile. "Let's just juxtapose this to what happened 235 years ago in America," Dreier said . "I've interacted with di fferen t parliamentar- Above: Rep. David Dreier (r ) seated next to President ians, and they are going through the process

of the Timorese National Parliam ent Fernando Araujo.

of getting the country moving. Democracy is Below left: M embers of the congression al delegation a work i n progress.We have experience and want to share it." !:! For more information on the House Democracy Partnership, go to: http:/lhdac.house.govl.

m eet w ith members of the Timorese parliament. Below right: Rep. Jim McDermott (I) and Rep . David Price visit with a mother and her new baby at a USAIDsupported clinic in Manatutu. Bottom: Timor-Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta speaks to members of the Congressional House Democracy Partnership from his home in Dili.

Is it East Timor or Timor-Leste? Most of the world knows this small Southeast Asian nation as East Timor. but the country changed its name to TimorLeste in 2002. "Timor" refers to the island area shared w ith Indonesia, and "leste" means "east" in Portuguese. The official name that the United Nations and the International Organization for Standardization uses is TimorLeste. SOURCE GO\IE'rnmeot of Timor 1.este

Tl MOR·LESTE 3

EN ERGY

Timor-Leste uses oil revenues to invest in human development en years after emerging from a costly conflict for its independence and securing its political stability, Timor-Leste is assiduously working to overcome another challenge: an oil curse. Oil is Timor-Leste's leading industry, and experts say it will continue to be for the foreseeable future.According to published reports, the annual budget has ballooned from $70 million in 2004 to $ 1.3 billion in 20 11 - with virtually all the revenue coming from the petroleum fund. Timor-Leste's hopes and ambitions are tied to its oil wealth,and government officials are eager to use that wealth to develop its social infrastructure and invest in education and other human services, thereby avoiding the paradox of plenty - when oil revenues spur corruption and inflation. These consequences have caused some developing countries to become worse off as sudden wealth can discourage long-term planning, fiscal responsibility and economic development. To avoid the oil curse,Timor-Leste set up a special Petroleum Fund in 2005 that was modeled on Norway's sovereign wealth fund

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The Greater Sunrise oil and gas field in the Timor Sea is situated within a disputed area between Timor-Leste. Australia and Indonesia. The Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) is owned 90% by Timor-Leste and 10% by Australia.

4 TIMOR-LESTE

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to ensure the sustainable use of its revenues over the long term and avoid waste and inefficiency. Assets from the Timorese fund surpassed $8 billion in 2011. "You can call it a curse; but, if it is managed well,it can be a blessing;' said Raymond Lee Orbach, the director of the University of Texas at Austin's Energy Institute and former first Undersecretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy. Some countries depend exclusively on revenues from oil without investing in their population, thus creating the paradox of plenty. That can be avoided, Orbach said,with sufficient investment in education and social development. "They have the potential to have a great future;' Orbach said."They recognize energy as their major resou rce." A project at the center of Timor-Leste's

ambitions: Greater Sunrise oil and gas field project, commonly known as Sunrise. Sunrise - a swath of area between Timor-Leste, Australia and Indonesia - has been the subject of controversy, exploration and negotiations since it was discovered in 1974. The current controversy is entangled in the history of maritime negotiations. At the heart of the debate is the question of where to liquefy the natural gas, thus allowing the energy to be exported. The united view in Timor-Leste is that the pipeline must be brought to Timor-Leste as a measure of fairness. In early 2010, the government of TimorLeste took a hard stance: they would not approve any development plan that didn't include a pipeline to Timor-Leste and a liquefied natu ral gas plant on the south coast. Deputy Prime Minister Jose Luis Guterres and other governm ent officials have said that Timor-Leste wants the Sunrise pipeline as the fairest distribution of resources in the region. "There have been a lot of robust discussions over the past three years since this government came to power," said Sunrise Commissioner Francisco da Costa Monteiro. He said the negotiations are ongoing. 1:1

National Petroleum Authority President Gualdino da Silva oversees the Greater Sunrise oil and gas field.

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EC ONOMY

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Timor-Leste Emerges as The Voice of g7+ Timor-Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao (r) looks on as Minister of Finance Emilia Pires addresses donor organizations in Juba, South Sudan, in October 2011.

Minister of Finance, Emilia Pires has been leading the g7+ since its inception

im Adams, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and the Pacific Region , was impressed .When Adams visited limor-Leste to discuss capacity building with key government leaders, the veteran development executive left the country telling a World Bank colleague how wowed he was that TimorLeste had achieved solid growth and political stability, despite the difficult global economic climate. It's true. This small Southeast Asian country is eager to share its experience and already has become a model for fragile countries. From November 29-December I, TimorLeste will lead the g7+countries in the 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea to address key development priorities. Representing more than 350 million people, the g7+ is a network of 19 countries collectively united to optimize international donor engagement and development assistance in fragile and conflict-affected states. Represented by Minister of Rnance, Her Excellency Emilia Pires, Timor-Leste has chaired the g7+ since its inception in 20 10, when countries signed the Dili Declaration that called for a fundamental shift in the way development partners interact with fragile states.The group also highlighted the need to prioritize peace-building and state-building as keys to achieving their development goals. The Busan summit is one of several global meetings taking place simultaneously. Dignitaries from around the world are expected to be in Busan for these meetings.

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Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to attend the forum, marking the first time the U.S. is represented at such a high level. While in Busan, member countries are expected to establish for the first time, their own national plans with development partners and to set clear development goals and priorities, culminating in the Busan Outcome Document. The meeting in South Korea builds on the October 18-19 session in Juba, South Sudan,where government leaders from across the world came together and hammered out a development agenda in preparation for Busan. During the sessions, Prime Minister

"The g7+ is nice way of attempting to get more consistent focus and attention to these problems;·Adams said. Adams is quick to point out that limorLeste doesn't have to be part of the consortium because its oil reserves qualify it as a mid-income country. "Timor has taken additional responsibilities, which is interesting for two reasons: One, Timor,because of its oil wealth and good policies has certainly put some of the fragility behind ," Adams said. "It's willingness to provide leadership as a former fragile state, if you could classify it that way, represents a level of generosity and vision which is important. Because of [Timor-Leste's] progress, it does have credibility in the international scene." He lauded the government ofTimor-Leste for its commitment to the g7+ and speci fically praised Pires for her leadership. "That she has spent time on this has been a tremendous compliment both to her and the government in terms of allowing her to do that;' Adams said of Pires."For the other countries, this is a particularly strong gesture because she could be talking in a different environment with middle-income and more successful countries." Timor-Leste has been active in leveraging the g7+ as a platform to improve the relationship between donor and aid countries. Pires firmly believes that the relationship can be transformed. During a recent presentation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., she spoke about aid effectiveness and said Ti mor-Leste strives to be transparent with donor countries. et

Because of [Timor-Leste's] progress, it does have credibility in the international scene. Jim Adams World Bonk Vice Presiden rjor Easr Asia and rhe Pacific Region

Xanana Gusmao encouraged donors to consider the priorities of each country when they provide aid . The need for such a co llective voice makes sense because these countries face similar challenges, said Adams, who was an early supporter of the g7+.

"Actually, the donors in my country appreciate it because we are honest.And now they are honest with us as well." For more information on the Fourth HighLevel Forum on Aid Effectiveness, check out www.aideffectiveness.org/busanhlf4. Tl MOR·LESTE 5

PR OFILES

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Looking Back, Looking Forward Deputy Prime Minister Jose Luis Guterres has watched his country achieve its freedom and become a beacon for other freedom-seeking peoples DILl - Midway through what would become a long day of budget hearings as part of a transparency initiative,Jose Lufs Guterres stood at the doorway, meeting and greeting concerned citizens in this capital city. The former Ambassador to the U.S. and the United Nations and current deputy prime minister, reflected on Timor-Leste's comm itment to democracy and its own progress. "''m sure we are setting the right goals," he said."The policies that we have implemented have in reality solved many problems." Over th e last thirty years, the former University of Cambridge student has been at the forefront of ensuring TimOJcLeste's place in the world. A career diplomat, negotiator and statesman, he advocated on behalf of TimorLeste before it was an independent country in 2002 and during some of its darkest days. Guterres was a member of the National Council of Timorese Resistance and also of 6 TIMOR-LESTE

the Central Committee of the Fretilin Congress, which is a major political party in Timo1cLeste. As former Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs he traveled widely and worked to ensure that Timor-Leste remained visible before the international community. He became the first Ambassador ofTimorLeste to the U.S. with a concurrent accreditation as Permanent Representative to the United Nations from 2002 to 2003.Perhaps his greatest achievement during his tenure was helping to lead the initiative to help the more than 150,000 internally displaced people living in Timor-Leste at the time of independence. Colleagues at th e United Nations cautioned him that it would take 10 to 15 years to solve the problem. Guterres shook his head and said Timor-Leste didn't have the luxury of time, and ultimately solved the problem in a couple of years by engaging with government ministries and civil society organizations. He credits the spirit of the Timorese in achieving their own independence, but he is equally quick to praise the international community. He specifically extolled President Bill

Clinton and former Secretary of State Madeline Albright for their assistance to Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste turns ten in 2012,and Guterres believes it is time forTimor-Leste to give back. Timor-Leste has signed onto major United Nations human rights conventions, establishing itself as a defender of human rights. In recent years, Timor-Leste has also provided financial support to other countries in need,

We have received so much, and it is time for us to give to other peoples who are suffering.

including $1 million in aid to Japan during the tsunami .Timor-Leste also leads the g7+,a consortium of weak and fragile states that aims to transform the way foreign aid is distributed. "We have received so much, and it is time for us to give to other peoples who are suffering;' he said. "We value freedom, human rights and democracy." a

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A Friend to the U.S., an Advocate for Timor-Leste Educated in the U.S., Ambassador Constancio Pinto wants to attract more Timorese to American universities and colleges WASHINGTON, D.C.- Ask His Excellency, Ambassador Constl:incio Pi nto about his credentials: He may quietly rattle off a few foreign languages, talk about his book or his degrees from Brown and Columbia Universities. Ask him about opportunities to strengthen the bilateral relationship through people-to-people programs,and the tenured ambassador's face lights up. "My goal is to bring more students here:· he said. "I would like more students - especially those interested in community colleges - to study in the U.S. It is in our interest to bring Timorese students to the United States. The United States offers a high class education and this will benefit people in the long run:· FewTimorese or Americans, for that matter, can speak about th e bilateral relationship from as deeply a personal perspective as Pinto, a father of two and lifelong advocate of Timor-Leste, who spends his days advancing relations between the U.S. and Timor-Leste. Even fewer are as well-qualified: Educated and trained in the U.S., Pinto is the first Ambassador of Timor-Leste to the United States to reside full-time in Washington, D.C. But, his current tour is not the first time that Pinto has lived in the U.S. or advocated on behalf to Timor-Leste to an American audience. A self-described accidental diplomat, Pinto joined the struggle to free Timor-Leste as a young man and soldier. He fought alongside otherTimorese against foreign invaders only to be captured during the fighting. He escaped prison,and during a trip to Portugal, he saw video footage of a massacre of Timorese that he credits for inspiring him to travel to the U.S. and speak about the atrocities committed against Timorese. "From then on, I started my own work as an activist and diplomat, meeting with government leaders and pushing for the cause of Timor-Leste. That has not stopped even today" He started the movement from Brown as

a student and focused his work on political science and development studies. Upon graduating, he intentionally chose the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University for its proximity to the United Nations. There, he laid the groundwork for an independent Timor-Leste as Secretary of the Executive Committee of the Timorese Resistance Movement in the Clandestine Movement from 1990-1991. In 200 1, he became Minister Counselor/Charge d'Affairs for the Embassy of Timor-Leste in Washington, D.C. He worked with dozens of students coming from Timor-Leste to the U.S. and held cultural gatherings from the embassy to promote understanding and friendship. He also co-authored the book,

East Timor 's Unfinished Struggle: Inside the East Timorese Resistance. "I want Americans to know Timor as they know their own country," Pinto said. "Timor-Leste is a country committed to democracy and human rights. We are a young cou ntry, and there are lots of opportunities. It's a place Americans have to discover. Democ racy doesn't only exist in America.It also exists in Timor-Leste:· He encourages Timorese youth to see life in America and then return to Timor-Leste to teach ,start a business or join public service. ''As Timorese, we have a strong bond with the community where we belong. For the community, it is a point of pride to have someone studying in the United States. The students have a sense of responsibility to their communities. I say,"'Study hard and go back!'" et

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Tour de Success Annual Tour de Timor mountain bike race closes another triumphant year

About 100 Timorese participated in the annual Tour de Timor mountain bike race that also attracted athletes from across the globe. 8 TIMOR-LESTE

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uick: In just three months, put together an international mountain bike race to help commemorate a major historical milestone with no staff, money or cycling experience. OK? It was May 2009 and Michael Stone, an assistant to President Jose Ramos-Horta, received th is directive to bu ild the Tour de Timor, a c ross-country bike race that commemorates the l Oth anniversary of the Timor-Leste vote for independence. Stone didn't ask many questions; the clock was ticking. "It was a major challenge to say the least;' he said. "A lot of good people came together to make the impossible possible." That was in 2009, and with every passing year, the Tour de Timor has grown in attendance and international popularity. The 2011 race wrapped up in September and clocked in as the most successful year yet: More than 350 cyclists from across the world, including 100 Timorese, participated in the international event. Australian rider Luke Fletch was the race winner, while Peta Mullins was the top female rider. The grueling &

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If there is a living symbol of this year's Mediterranean meltdown, it is Silvio Berlusconi, whose "bunga bunga" parties and maladroit governance have made Italy a global laughingstock- and, more seriously, a major drag on the entire European project. The Italian prime minister, finally headed for the exits after 24 dodged lawsuits since he first took power in 1994. In no small measure it was thanks to llda Boccassini, a prosecutor based in Milan. Dubbed "llda Ia Rossa" ("I Ida the Red") for her fiery hair and left-leaning politics,

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Boccassini is known for her daring investigations into some of Italy's most notorious mafia clans. Since the early 1990s, however, Berlusconi has been her chief quarry, and she finally seems to have caught him this year for allegedly paying a 17 -yearold for sex and abusing his position to hide the act. The prime minister denies it, but tens of thousands of wiretaps, ordered by Boccassini's office, have revealed the decadence of Berlusconi's bacchanals-a nd the corruption and callousness of Italian politics in the midst of a financial crisis. Berlusconi's unforgettable quotes rank up there with the worst scandals exposed by Wikileaks. Despite strenuous pushback from the flamboyant PM's media empire, Boccassini has quietly proceeded with putting the entire corrupt system of Berlusconismo on trial. As she said last year of the mafia, "Either you are with the state or you are against the state." Even if you think you own the state.

as the world's greatest nation. In That Used to Be Us, co-authored with Johns Hopkins University professor Michael Mandelbaum, Friedman delivers what he describes as a "wake-up call" to America, making the case that the war against al Qaeda was a dangerous distraction from the home front and that a third party is needed to restore American greatness. For Friedman, American anxiety over the "rise of the rest" is caused primarily by the realization that the U.S. political system is increasingly bogged down in partisan infighting and bureaucratic paralysis. Commenting on Republican presidential candidates Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann's climatechange denialism , he implored them to sell their wares elsewhere-as he put it, "we really are all stocked up on crazy right now." STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Both. AMERICA OR CHINA? America. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? It is an Arab Awakening and will take all four seasons for many years.

Jens Stoltenberg provided a case study in how to guide a nation through trauma. Stoltenberg emphasized the principles that have made Norway the envy of the world in the first place. "We will never abandon our values," he told Norwegians two days later. "Our reply is: more democracy, more openness, and more humanity. But never naivete." In the months since, Stoltenberg has resisted pressures to institute greater domestic surveillance measures and maintained a proimmigration stance. As he put it: "We need to accept that there are extreme views out there, too. They cannot be silenced to death, but de bated to death."

FOREIGN POLICY

article this year. From Indonesian villages to rural Morocco, they met people who would fall comfortably within the international definition of hungry, yet were forsaking needed nutrients for better-tasting treats or a DVD player. What to do? For starters, they suggest leaving the grand, onesize-fits-all solutions where they belong: back at the academy.

BANERJEE MUSE: Voltaire. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? China. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Spring.

For their brilliant book on the world's poorest. Economists, Massachusetts lmtitute of Technology I Cambridge, Mass.

Within the world of development economics, Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Foreign-affairs columnist, Duflo are known as the New York Times I Washington "randomistas" for eschewing Thomas Friedman popularized For meeting terror grandiose solutions to with humanity. eradicate poverty in favor the idea that the world is flat- and now he thinks Prime minister I Norway of randomized field trials. it's cracking up. The New Through their Poverty Action York Times foreign-affairs Wealthy, tranquil Norway Lab, they have studied columnist argues that today's seemed a world apart from how the world's poor make hyperconnected world has the violence and extremism economic decisions- in the made the planet's havethat has wracked other parts process redrawing the battle nots more aware of their of the planet. That illusion lines between those who was shattered in July when call for massive infusions of predicament and thus more eager to rebel against the Anders Behring Breivik-a government aid and those indolent and corrupt elites far-right madman obsessed who reject the usefulness of above them. But Friedman with a purported Muslim aid altogether. has done more than catalog takeover of Europe-set off a In their book this year, the wreckage of the Great bomb in Oslo and went on a Poor Economics, Banerjee Recession- he has laid out a killing spree at an island youth and Duflo argue that hunger blueprint for how the United camp, killing 77 people. In is not solely the result of States can reclaim its status----'L--the aftermath, Prime Minist~ being unable to afford

For holding out hope of American renewal.

enough food. Just like every other consumer on the planet, they found , the world's poor purchase goods based on the human desire for short-term pleasure over long-term gain. "What if the poor aren't starving, but choosing to spend their money on other priorities?" they asked in a

READING LIST: Open City, by Teju Cole; Our Lady of Alice Bhatti, by Mohammed Han if; Shah of Shahs, by Ryszard Kapuscinski.

DUFLO STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? China. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Spring. READING LIST: Shah of Shahs, by Ryszard Kapuscinski; Richard Ill, by William Shakespeare; Trespass, by Rose Tremain.

For helping us understand the new threats of the cyber era. Chie(research officer, F-Secure I Finland

Mikko Hypponen spends his days waist-deep in worms and viruses-of the virtual kind. A leading expert on cybersecurity, he has played a key role in helping us understand-and then stop-some of the dangerous menaces of the digital age. There

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were the worms Sobig.F, which Hypponen and his team dismantled in 2003, and Sasser, which they spotted in 2004; more recently, he has monitored hacking at Sony, as well as security threats to mobile devices. Hypponen's most highprofile case by far, however, is Stuxnet (and Duqu, its recent clone), and here his investigations shed much-needed light on the complex new world of cyberwar, where the bad guys and good guys alike- from shadowy computer hacks to major world powers- are now fighting. Last year, Stuxnet was discovered to have attacked nuclear centrifuges in Iran beginning in 2009. Some suspected Israel , but Hypponen has posited that it was the U.S. government. " If you look at who has the know-how, who has the technology, who has the motive, it's pretty obvious," he told Forbes this year. For Hypponen, who has been consulted by law-enforcement officials on three continents, Stuxnet proves that cyberattacks can affect the offline world- the increasingly networked water, power, and transportation systems that we all rely on. As he put it, "If the Internet doesn't work, or if computers don't work, our society doesn't work." MUSE: Twitter. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Neither. AMERICA OR CHINA? Neither. Superpowers were a 20th-century phenomenon. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Arab Spring. READING LIST: DarkMarket, by Misha Glenny; Kingpin: How One Hacker Took Over the Billion-Dollar Cybercrime Underground, by Kevin Poulsen. WORST IDEA: Social networks that don't actually delete your data when you press "delete."

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~~ ~mMA~ c~1~mv-~~~f For bringing Africa into the mobile age. Software entrepreneur I Ghana

Twenty years ago, when Herman Chinery-Hesse returned home after studying in the United States with plans to start a Ghanaian software company, his friends told him he was crazy. But his company, SOFTtribe, is now West Africa 's leading software company, helping imagine a new Africa for a digital age. Today, ChineryHesse is working to develop a payment system via mobilephone text messages that will allow African entrepreneurs to sell their products abroad . Ghana can be a world-class center of technological innovation, he insists- a Singapore for the continent-but the tech no logy has to meet local needs by being what he calls "tropically tolerant." His ambition is nothing less than the reimagining of an entire continent: more techsavvy, more prosperous, but always African. "Our colonial education systems gave us a legacy of rote learning; now we need to liberate innovative thinking to reinvent Africa ," he says.

~J Mfl~ ~A~A~ For being the last man in Israel to stand up to Benjamin Netanyahu. Former director, Massad I Israel

With a right-wing coalition installed in Jerusalem and the chaos of the Arab Spring putting Israelis in a defensive mood, Israel's hawks are ascendant. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has a surprising new critic: former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. After nearly a decade in the shadows, the spymaster this year embarked on an extraordinary media blitz, challenging what he called Netanyahu's march to war against Iran and unwillingness to pursue peace with the Palestinians. "I am afraid that there is no one to stop Bibi and [Defense Minister Ehud] Barak," Dagan said. Netanyahu quickly yanked Dagan's diplomatic passport. But as the man likely responsible for sabotaging Iranian nuclear research and orchestrating the assassination of a top Hezbollah operative in 2008, Dagan can't be dismissed as a mere peacenik. Ariel Sharon is said to have hired him in 2002 because he wanted a Mossad with "a knife between its teeth ." So when Dagan refers to an Israeli airstrike on Iran's nuclear installations as "the stupidest thing I have ever heard," we should pay attention.

~4 JO~fr~ ~Yf For seeing the future of power. Political scientist, Harvard University I Cambridge, Mass.

ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Can't tell yet. WORST IDEA: Continued construction of nuclear plants.

When FOREIGN POLICY asked 10 prominent American political scholars what prospective 2012 presidential candidates should read, four picked books by Joseph Nye, the longtime Harvard University

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agrees with critics of foreign aid that the system is broken: poorly administered from afar based on donor priorities, damaging to local institutions, and a sap on motivation. Unlike most critics, though, Birdsall- an economist by training who spent years at the World Bank and working on Latin American economic development- has an answer. Send money, she says, but pay only for results. In their 2010 book, Cash on Delivery, she and co-author William Savedoff argued that foreign aid should be based on a contract system in which aid is only disbursed after certain agreed-upon goals are met. This year, COD is catching on, with Britain's Department for International Development sponsoring pilot programs in Ethiopia and India. Cash on Delivery now has a chance to deliver. MUSE: Bob Dylan (the times they are a-changin'). STIMULUS OR AUSTER 1m For the U.S., short-term stimulus plus Medicare reforms to bend the cost curve and avoid long-term austerity. AMERICA OR CHINA?America for my lifetime. My children's? ARAB SPRING DR ARAB WINTER? Spring. READING LIST: Lords of Finance, by Liaquat Ahamed; How to Live, by Sarah Bakewell; Eclipse, by Arvind Subramanian; Grand Pursuit, by Sylvia Nasar. BEST IDEA: Alittle more emigration from poor to rich countries would add trillions of dollars to the world's GOP.

explaining the fall of the dollar as a global currency-and why it might not matter- has made him a "go-to economist on the continuing global financial crisis ," according to Pulitzerwinning New York Times columnist David Leonhardt. Barry Eichengreen's new book, Exorbitant Privilege, is an eye-opening look at the history and future of global currency. The bad news, for Americans at least, is that the dollar will soon lose its status as the world's dominant reserve currency, gradually sharing the role with the euro and the renminbi. The good news is that this shift won't necessarily hurt Americans. "[T]he fundamental fallacy behind the notion that the dollar is engaged in a death race with its rivals is the belief that there is room for only one international currency, " Eichengreen writes. His latest book presents a sorry picture-but one with a silver lining: American decline, he says, could be better for everyone. MUSE: Aimee Mann. STIMULUS OR AUSTER 1m Stimulus now, austerity later. AMERICA OR CHINA?Both. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Winter comes before spring. READING LIST: Poor Economics, by Abhijit Bane~ee and Esther Duflo; The Enlightened Economy, by Joel Mokyr; The Museum of Innocence, by Orhan Pamuk.

WORST IDEA: Debt prison for the Greek middle class.

For redrawing the global map of our future. For showing us that money isn't everything. Economist, University of California I Berkeley, Calif

This Berkeley professor's work

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journalist I Washington

Just as Robert D. Kaplan's book Balkan Ghosts and seminal 1994 article "The Coming Anarchy" were

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year has been about grappling with the most profound question in political philosophy: how to create legitimate central authority. In one Arab country after another-Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syriapopulations have taken to the streets to demand the downfall of their rulers, even as it is unclear what will follow in their wake. And the question applies not only to the Arab world. It is unclear, for example, whether Iran's quasi-clerical system of revolutionary rule has a long-term future, given

z .... t he intense infighting wit hin the regime and the intense dislike it stirs within significant swaths of the population. Can China's one-party system of control last indefinitely? Can Burma's? Whereas the United States basically inherited its democratic system from the British, and its main drama over more than two centuries has been about limiting central authority, the cha llenge in too many other places is the opposite: how to erect responsive government in the first place. No thinker has tackled these questions as painstakingly and as eloquently as the 19th-

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IRAQ. WITH ITS MIXTURE OF DEMOCRACY. CREEPING AUTHORITARIANISM. AND ANARCHY. IS A PLACE MADE FOR MILL- AND HOBBES. century English philosopher John Stuart Mill , which is why he is such an appropriate guide for these complicated times. Mill asserts, in On Uberty, and especia lly in Considerations on Representative Government, that whi le democratic government is surely to be preferred in theory, it is incredibly problematic in its particulars. This, of course, is part of Mill's larger exploration of liberty, and why ultimately the only justification a government has to curtail that liberty is when a person's behavior impinges on the rights of others. Despotism may work better in some instances, if only as a temporary measure, he writes; democracy is not suited for each and every society during significant periods of its development. I am crudely simplifying Mill, who is so clear while being so incredibly nuanced, and thus immensely readable. "Progress includes Order," Mill writes in Considerations, "but Order does not include Progress." Tyranny may be the pol itical building block of all human societies, but if t hey don't get beyond tyranny, the result is moral chaos and stagnation. Middle Eastern despots of our day too often supplied only Order; Asian ones have brought Progress, too. Thus China's rulers, who must retire at a certain point, who bring technical expertise to t heir ru le, and who govern in a collegial style, are much to be preferred over the North African variety, to say nothing of those in Syria or Yemen. Yet even in those cases, the prospect of a collapse of central authority indicates that, pace Mill, there may be no alternative to some sort of dictatorship, at least in the very short term. Mill's philosophy actually builds on that of his 17th-century compatriot, Thomas Hobbes, another thinker all too relevant for our times. Hobbes is often regarded as a preacher of doom and gloom. In fact, he wasn't. He stared into the abyss of anarchy and realized there was, indeed, a solution that

required reading in Bill Clinton's White House, the prolific journalist's current writing may become defining texts for the conflicts of the 21st century- which, he says, will be centered in Asia . Kaplan's latest book,

could lead to order and progress. That solution was the state. Hobbes extols the moral benefits of fear and sees violent anarchy as the chief threat to society. For Hobbes-best known for observing that the lives of men are "nasty, brutish, and short"fear of violent death is the cornerstone of enlightened selfinterest. By establishing a state, men replace the fear of violent death with the fear that only those who break the law need face. So while Hobbes made the case for central authority, Mill built on him to help us understand how humanity must get beyond mere authority in order to erect a liberal regime. Such concepts are sometimes difficult to grasp for today's urban middle class, which has long since lost any contact with man's natural condition. But the horrific violence of a disintegrating Iraq, or this year's fears of state collapse in places such as Yemen and Syria, have allowed many of us to imagine man's original state. In fact, as more and more nondemocratic systems find it harder and harder to survive in this age of instant electronic communications, Mill and Hobbes will top the dead thinkers list for years to come. Iraq, with it s mixture of democracy, creeping authoritarianism, and anarchy, is a place made for Mill and Hobbes, while Afghanistan is pure Hobbes. Imagine the relevance of Hobbes in the event of a regime collapse in North Korea; or of Mill as Egypt struggles for years to transform a mi litary dictatorship into a civil democracy. These men may be long dead, but their philosophy is a sure guide to today's headlines. The need for order-even as order must be made free from tyrannyis precisely the issue that hangs over the Greater Middle East.

Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, predicts a world

where ethnic disputes and the battle for resources make the Indian Ocean the new center of global instability- with a strong role left to play for the United States. According to Kaplan, the Indian Ocean region "may comprise a map as iconic to the new century as Europe was to the last one." And Barack Obama 's administration seems to agree, making much of what Hillary Clinton has called a "strategic turn" east. Whatever the region, Kaplan remains committed to his long-standing faith in pragmatic realism. He writes in FP, "It is realism in the service of the national interest ... that has saved lives over the span of history far more than humanitarian interventionism." STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA?America. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Arab Winter. READING LIST: China: AHistory, by John Keay; Doctor Faustus, by Thomas Mann; Nothing to Envy, by Barbara Demick. BEST IDEA: The U.S. presidential system, with its separation of powers, may not be as well suited to the rigors of the 21stcentury postmodern age as the parliamentary system used by most other democracies. WORST IDEA: Realism is dead because of the Arab Spring.

For applying his prophet's eye to the problem of dictatorship. Political scientist, New York University I New York

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita doesn't have a crystal ball. But through mathematical modeling and a keen understanding of the nature of political power, the New York University professor has proved remarkably adept at predicting events, from the Tiananmen Square crackdown to the Second Intifada to the failure of international attempts to stymie Iran's nuclear program. Bueno de Mesquita has consulted with the CIA and State Department using his modeling method, which simulates leaders' behavior while making stressful decisions. In May 2010, he and colleague Alastair Smith told a group of investors that Hosni Mubarak's regime was likely to collapse soon. This year, Bueno de Mesquita and Smith released The Dictator's Handbook, which reduces the art of staying in power to a set of surprisingly simple rules, most of which boil down to knowing which supporters are crucial and figuring out how to placate them. At the end of the day, he believes, leaders will do whatever it takes to retain power. He writes: " It is surprisingly easy to grasp most of what goes on in the political world as long as we are ready to adjust our thinking ever so modestly." READING LIST: Freedom, by Jonathan Franzen; Ultimatum, by Matthew Glass; The Warmth of Other Suns, by Isabel Wilkerson. BEST IDEA: Amnesty for dictators who step down trumps pursuit and punishment. WORST IDEA: Foreign assistance will help Libya or Egypt become more democratic.

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For putting the muscle back in human rights.

For creating new forms for a new age.

For exploring why we make the mistakes we do.

Executive director, Human Rights Watch I New York

Architect I Britain

Psychologist, Princeton Un iversity I Prince!Oit, N .J.

In many ways, 2011 was a banner year for the enforcement of human rights. After 16 years on the run, Bosnian Serb war-crimes fugitive Ratko Mladic was arrested and sent to The Hague for trial. Dictatorships fell across North Africa , and, in the case of Libya, with a considerable push from Western military might. And the United States has committed its military know-how to taking down central Africa's infamous Lord's Resistance Army. Led for the last 18 years by Kenneth Roth, a tenacious former prosecutor, Human Rights Watch has been at the center of all these issues, taking bold risks to produce damning reports from inside closed regimes and putting pressure on governments and the media to keep their eye on abuses. And it's doing so with more resources and staff in more countries than ever after an eye-popping $100 million grant from financier George Soros in 2010. At the end of last year, Roth called on Washington to show that "the humanitarian use of force remains a live option at the Obama White House." After two years when realpolitik seemed to be the president's guiding strategy, Obama now seems to have done just that in Libya and Uganda. Roth's positions can often be controversial- he supported calls for Canada to arrest former U.S. President George W. Bush on torture charges-but nobody can deny that his views carry more weight than ever.

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In 2006, the New York Times architecture critic Nicolai Ouroussoff wrote that Iraqi-born British architect Zaha Hadid' s utopian and international vision was "as close to a manifesto for the future as we have." Five years later, we are all living in that future- and it is fabulous . Hadid's snaking, geometric, fluid structures now grace cities from Guangzhou to London to, soon enough, her native Baghdad, where Hadid has been commissioned to replace the bombed-out Central Bank of Iraq . And the lushly reptilian visual signature of her buildings now influences everything from Lady Gaga's footwear to the spaceship-style architecture coming into fashion across the developing world, offering a democratic and highly modern alternative to the ubiquitous glass towers preferred by the neoauthoritarians of China and the Gulf. The global economic decline has done nothing to slow down her inexorable march into the bolder, better, faster, and newer. "We are in a period of economical decline- so we should do bad stuff?" she told Newsweek this year. " What kind of bullshit is that? Show restraint? Why?" MUSE: The people of Japan, for their resilience and dignity in coping with the aftermath of the devastating tsunami. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? Both- America and China. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Spring.

Long before Malcolm Gladwell tipped over into celebrity or Freakonomics was a gleam in Steven Levitt' s eye , Daniel Kahneman was enthralling readers with surprising insights into the cognitive routines and in he rent biases that drive human decisionmaking. A psychologist by training, he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics for illuminating the motivations behind risky decision-making. In his highly anticipated book Thinking, Fast and Slow, published this year, Kahneman sketches a model of the human mind as driven by two systems of thinking: one that makes fast, intuitive judgments and choices, and one that is slower and more deliberative. In Kahneman's view, "gutlevel" intuitive thinking drives an astonishingly high number of human decisions, from what car a consumer buys to what company a broker invests in to whether two countries go to war. In the wake of the global financial crisis, his warning that "organizations that take the word of overconfident experts can expect costly consequences" is particularly welcome. Here's hoping it encourages world leaders to let their two-track brains do the thinking.

nlYlmCOW[~ For finding markets in everything.

Economist, George Mason University I Fairfax, Va.

In an age when academics are increasingly pushed to specialize in ever-more-arcane subtopics, Tyler Cowen's output is delightfully eclectic. In his books, his New York Times columns, and especially on Marginal Revolution , the blog he co-authors with colleague Alex Tabarrok, Cowen riffs as comfortably on Cantonese cuisine and classical music as on monetary policy and interest rates. Most importantly, the blog has become a kind of central gateway to the growing world of blogging economists. When a reader suggested that Cowen's uncanny information recall might be a sign of mild autism, rather than take offense, he wrote an entire book exploring the topic. This year, Cowen released a widely discussed 15,000-word ebook, The Great Stagnation, in which he argued that the current economic slump is structural, rather than the result of specific policies, and that there's little hope of recovery anytime soon. Cowen thinks the United States has already picked the " lowhanging fruit" of growth-

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For trying to drag diplomacy into the 21st century. Director, Coogle Ideas I N ew York Advisor for innovation, State Departmwt I \Vashingtmt

The U.S. State Department's headquarters in Foggy Bottom is a musty, World War 11-era building that famously commands a corps of Foreign Service officers only as large as the Pentagon's marching bands. Jared Cohen and Alec Ross, however, have begun to imagine a new future for diplomacy, one that would harness the power of new technology and social media to ensure that the department punches far above its increasingly anemic budgetary weight. The two have relentlessly pushed the idea that international events are no longer determined by world leaders sitting at the top of mammoth bureaucracies, but by networks largely outside governments' control- a fact driven home this year by the Arab Spring. And they set about the difficult job of moving Foggy Bottom beyond the archaic world of diplomatic cables, elevating Internet freedom as a U.S. priority and encouraging diplomats to use social media like Facebook- a technique that paid dividends this year when U.S. envoy to Damascus Robert Ford used these tools to go over the Syrian regime's head and express outrage at President Bashar ai-Assad 's brutal crackdown on his own people. Cohen, author of a prescient book on Middle Eastern youth movements, recently brought his ideas to the private sector, launching a "think/do tank" at Google. Its first project brought together a motley crew of former lslamists, neo-Nazis, and gang members in Dublin to discuss the factors that contribute to radicalization and violence. "I believe the greater one's network, the more change one can effect," he told an interviewer. "It is amazing what you can get, who you can meet with, if you just ask."

COHEN STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? America. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER?Arab Winter.

Join a community of 400 students from more than 60 countries-in a multidisciplinary graduate program combining theory, practice, fieldwork, and a commitment to social responsibility. Also offering master's programs in Urban Policy Analysis and Management and Environmental Policy and Sustainability Management.

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READING LIST: Ghost Wars, by Steve Coli; On China, by Henry Kissinger; Start-Up Nation, by Dan Senor and Saul Singer. BEST IDEA: To tackle corruption by moving salary disbursements of civil servants and law enforcement to mobile payments to remove the middlemen. WORST IDEA: The Iranian regime plotting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S.

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DEFEATING DICTATORS FIGHTING TYRANNY IN AFRICA AND AROUND THE WORLD

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MUSE: Theodore Roosevelt. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Neither. Cut to the bone in certain areas and invest significantly in others. AMERICA OR CHINA?America. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER?Arab Spring. READING LIST: Empire of the Mind, by Jared Cohen and Eric Schmidt (2012); The Giving Tree, by Shel Silverstein; The Master Switch, by Tim Wu. BEST IDEA: Launch a global campaign for clean cookstoves. WORST IDEA: Require the equivalent of a driver's license to use the Internet.

~4 M~~TA~A ~AR~H~~TI For believing in a different politics for Palestine. Po litician I West Ballk

Decades of terrorist attacks may have cemented the Palestinian cause in the world's consciousness, but they never delivered the Palestinians' national dream-a state of their own. More than anyone else, politician and human rights activist Mustafa Barghouti has pioneered an alternative path that emphasizes nonviolent tactics to delegitimize the Israeli occupation and demands that the Palestinian national movement live up to its ideals. He was the only political figure to contest Yasir Arafat's anointed successor, Mahmoud Abbas, in the 2005 Palestinian presidential election, and he won a seat in the Palestinian Legislative Council in 2006 on a platform that promoted an alternative to Arafat's Fatah and the militant group Hamas. Barghouti has been an enthusiastic supporter of the Palestinians' bid this year for member-state status at the United Nations, framing the move as part of the "diplomatic resistance" to Israel. At the same time, he has pressed the Palestinian Authority to revitalize its often-ignored democratic institutions and provide a transparent accounting of its budget, while urging Fatah and Hamas to set

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Scholars of International Affairs: IPSI is an inlensive , hands-on workshop tbal l eaches scholars how lo produce and disseminat e policy-relevant research . At I PSI, s uccessfu l academic and policy prac titioners will show you

- Wll AT policymakers look for in intermdional affairs scholarship - l:VHO is the itleal audi-ence for y our research - HOW to get y our work read by the people who matter. Join us Lo build t he tools and networks you need to make your voice heard.

~J rfRVU ~OODB~OY For his bold secular defiance. Physicist, Q uaid-i-AZLJm University I Pak istan

Pakistan has caused international alarm by expanding its nuclear arsenal-it is now believed to have more nukes than Israel-even as the government becomes more unstable and less able to hold onto these powerful weapons. But one Pakistani scientist from within the nuclear program, Pervez Hoodbhoy, head of the physics department at Quaid-i-Azam University, has become a powerful voice in denouncing his country's growing religious fundamentalism. In his book Islam and Science: Religious

Application available at www.bridgingthegapproject.org Open to faculty (all ranks) and posL- docLoral scholars fro m all relevant disciplines. Accommodations and meals provide d. Bridging the Gap is co-sponsored by American University, Duke University, and UC Berke ley, with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

BRIDGING THEGAP

Orthodoxy and the Battle for Rationality,

Hoodbhoy questions why a culture that produced some of the most significant early advancements in science and mathematics now lags behind. Rather than better technology or faster Internet access, Hoodbhoy has written, "Muslims need freedom from dogmatic beliefs and a culture that questions rather than obeys." Hoodbhoy is also known for his fearless critiques of the Pakistani military establishment at a time when others remain silent. Following the death of Osama bin Laden, when most public discourse in Pakistan condemned the American incursion, he expressed hope that it could be a turning point for the generals: "The country must decide whether to decisively confront Isla mist violence, or continue with the military's current policy of supporting jihadi militants with one hand even as it

Scoville Fellows work with one of twenty-seven participating public-interest organizations. They may undertake a variety of activities, including research, writing, and advocacy on a range of security issues including nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, non-proliferation, missile defense, weapons lrade, environmental and energy security, and regional security and peacekeeping, that support the goals of their host organization, and may attend coalition meetings, policy briefings and Congressional hearings. Fellows

are supervised by and learn from senior level staff and often have the opportunity to publish articles or reports. The program also arranges meetings for the fellows with policy experts. Many former Scoville Fellows have gone on to pursue graduate degrees in international rela· lions and taken prominent positions in the field of peace and security with publicinterest organizations, the Federal Government, and in academia.

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PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR TOMORROW'S LEADERS IN PEACE AND SECURITY

slaps them with the other." Let's hope Pakistan listens. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA?China. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER?Arab Spring. READING LIST: Our Lady of Alice Bhatti, by Mohammed Hanif; The Kite Runner, by Khaled Hosseini; Bloodmoney, by David Ignatius. BEST IDEA: For the U.S. to exit Afghanistan. WORST IDEA: For the U.S. to exit Afghanistan in indecent haste.

~~ A~~y S~M~m For finding the new "bottom billion." Econo mist, University of Sussex I Britain

His research means a radical redrawing of the aid map-a complex challenge that involves not just old-fashioned handouts but everything from new trade deals to revised political partnerships. Still, finding out where the poor really are is a good first step. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Something new altogether. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER?A Global Spring. READING LIST: Where Good Ideas Come From, by Steven Johnson; The Haves and the Have-Nots, by Branko Milanovic; Arrival City, by Doug Saunders. BEST IDEA: The "catalytic class," the new middle-class revolutionaries or those newly non-poor and emerging lower-middle classes in many countries who are fed up and in the mood for protesting. WORST IDEA: Too many to mention.

In his influential 2007 book, The Bottom Billion , Paul Collier (No. 56) argued that the world's poorest 1 billion people are concentrated in just 58 badly governed countries . Now, fellow economist Andy Sumner says he has identified a "new bottom billion," and his findings, released last year, stand to reshape how we think about poverty. In 1990, an estimated 93 percent of the world's poor lived in low-income countries, according to Sumner. But that has radically changed ; by 2007, more of the world's 1.3 billion poor-almost three-quarters of them- lived in countries now classified by the World Bank as middle income, a diverse group that includes China, India, and Indonesia, as well as Pakistan, Cameroon, and Angola . In comparison, only 370 million poor people live in low-income countries, primarily in subSaharan Africa. Poverty, in other words, is no longer just "a poor country issue," as Sumner has put it.

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FoREIGN P oLICY

~1 JO~A~~A SIG~R~AR~OTIIR For showing how good women are at fixing what men break. Prime minister I lee/and

In 2009, Iceland's government became the first casualty of the global economic crisis. And following decades of ill-advised deregulation and financial speculation under the country's male-dominated political elite, Iceland went in a radically different direction-backing a former flight attendant turned union rep turned legislator, Johanna Sigurdardottir, as its first female prime minister and the world's first openly gay country leader. Sigurdardottir has since presided over a feminist revolution. Nearly half the country's legislature is now female, as are four of

its 10 cabinet members. She has supported high-profile campaigns against rape and domestic violence, and a law legalizing same-sex marriage passed unanimously-allowing Sigurdardottir to marry her longtime partner in 2010. Prostitution and strip clubs have been banned. It seems to be working: Iceland's economy is finally starting to show signs of life after much lighter cuts to social welfare programs than in other European countries. Maybe it's time for them to dump the boys' club, too.

~~ Jo~~ mr~o~Go For working to build a nation of watchdogs. Anti-corruption campaigner I Kenya

Kampala's slums," he wrote. "They are Africa's overwhelming majority: poor, marginalized and angry about corruption and soaring food and fuel prices." ARAB SPRINGOR ARAB WINTER?Arab Spring but with lots of rain. READING LIST: Africa: The Politics of Suffering and Smiling, by Patrick Chabal; The Spirit Level, by Kate Pickett and Richard Wilkinson; How Rich Countries Got Rich.. . and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor, by Erik Reinert. BEST IDEA: From a young Kenyan: "Africa is the final frontier in economic growth, democracy, and development." WORST IDEA: let only economists explain what's wrong with the economy.

~~ rA~l fARMm For reminding the world of Haiti's continuing struggle.

Once forced out of his country Medical anthropologist, Harvard for blowing Unive rsity I Boston the whistle on a massive Haiti only government tends to make graft scandal, international John Githongo has become a headlines global symbol of the struggle following a against government corruption massive global since returning to Kenya in cataclysm . That's why the work 2008 and beginning a crusade of Paul Farmer, who has for for transparency in one of the years argued that the country's world's more venal countries. misery is the result of human Githongo had been the corruption and mismanagement, government's anti-corruption not the wrath of nature, is czar but fled in 2005 after essential to reminding the world accusing top ministers of that the Western Hemisphere's fraud. Now he has adopted most failed state hasn't gone a more grassroots approach, away. But Farmer isn't just an launching a campaign called advocate for providing aid-he's Ni Sisi! ("It is us!") to empower a trenchant critic of how it is local businesses and act doled out. In his new book, as a watchdog on opaque Haiti After the Earthquake, government contracts. If Farmer points a finger at the successful, it's a model that U.S. government, whose could be exported to other policies over the last century, countries where corruption is he says, have contributed rampant. enormously to Haiti's instability. Githongo believes Africa may Take his critique of Haiti's be ripe for the kind of uprisings massive cholera outbreak recently seen in the Arab world. over the past year, its largest "The Tunisian street vendor who ever. Farmer, who is also the set himself alight was not so co-founder of the international different from the disaffected medical NGO Partners in Health young men of Nairobi's and ~d was deputy to U.N. Haiti

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envoy Bill Clinton (No. 22), has ripped the international community for not anticipating the possibility of such a catastrophe in a country with such poverty and poor sanitation, not to mention down playing the crisis once it hit. "If any country was a mine-shaft canary for the reintroduction of cholera, it was Haiti- and we knew it," Farmer says. MUSE: FOR. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? Not an either-or question. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER?Spring. READING LIST: To End All Wars, by Adam Hochschild; Deep China, by Arthur Kleinman, et al.; ASong of Ice and Fire, by George R.R. Martin. BEST IDEA: The Tobin tax on financial transactions. WORST IDEA: America vs. China.

For using new tools to advocate for a new foreign policy. Political scientist, Princeto n University I Princeton, N.J.

This year, AnneMarie Slaughter showed there's life after politics. After stepping down in February as head of the State Department's policy planning shop-where she oversaw a major review of America's diplomatic and development efforts-Slaughter returned to her perch at Princeton University, but if anything her public profile has only expanded as she has transformed herself into a public intellectual for a new-media world . Between her new blog on the Atlantic's website and lively Twitter feedrecent output includes debates with fellow Global Thinkers Clay Shirky (No. 82) and Ethan Zuckerman (No. 73)-she

regularly argues for the creation of a newly networked , globalized foreign policy, one that takes into account the immense changes reshaping the world of diplomacy. "[T]he traditional tools of fighting, talking, pressuring, and persuading government-togovernment really aren't working so well," she wrote in July. "Thirty years of urging reform produced next to nothing; 6 months of digitally and physically organized social protests and a political earthquake is shaking the broader Middle East." MUSE: Franklin D. Roosevelt, for continually learning and adapting to change. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? America. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Arab Spring. READING LIST: Thinking About Leadership, by Nannerl 0. Keohane; Wikileaks and the Age of Transparency, by Micah L. Sifry; Everything Is Obvious*: *Once You Know the Answer, by Duncan J. Watts. BEST IDEA: Passing a constitutional amendment to ban private money in federal elections. WORST IDEA: Ending the euro.

mKI~~ORf MA~B~BA~I For being the muse of the Asian Century. Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School o f Public Policy I Singapo re

For years , Kishore Mahbubani has been arguing that Asian powers are ascending while the influence of Western democracies is decliningand that Western countries have as much to learn from Asia as vice versa. Back in 2001, he wrote, "If my

intuition is proven right, we will begin to see, for the first time in 500 years, a two-way flow in the passage of ideas between the East and the West early this century." With the United States mired in economic crisis and political dysfunction while China and India continue to grow at a healthy clip, this Singaporean diplomat turned academic is now taking a well-deserved victory lap on op-ed pages from Tokyo to New York . Mahbubani argues that Western governments, instead of rigidly adhering to free market orthodoxy, should "relearn the virtue of pragmatism" from India and China , which found prosperity by abandoning Nehruvian socialism and Maoism. "I used to be regularly lectured by Westerners on the inability of Asians to slay their sacred cows. Today, the Western intelligentsia seems equally afraid to attack their own sacred cows," he wrote this year. More controversially, he thinks that U.S. congressional dysfunction and the growing influence of the Tea Party are evidence that American democracy is no longer adequate to meet the challenges of the global economy. "Only one phrase," he writes, "captures the current Asian perception of the West: sheer incredulity." MUSE: Niccolo Machiavelli.

~~ ~~Oll OKO~JO-IW~lA For returning home to clean house. Finance minister I Nigeria

Ngozi Okonjo-lweala has spent her career shuttling between the rarified world of international economic institutions and the rough-andtumble politics of her native Nigeria. Most recently, she served for four years as managing director of the World Bank, where she pushed initiatives like "diaspora bonds" that would allow immigrants in the West to invest in their home countries. In July, the Harvard- and MIT-educated Okonjo-lweala returned to Nigeria as President Good luck Jonathan's finance minister, a job she had held once before. Last time under Okonjo-Wahala, or "Trouble Woman ," as she's nicknamed , the country cut inflation in half and averaged 6 percent growth per year. This time her focus is on reducing Nigeria's debt burden and creating jobs, despite the slump in the global economy and considerable challenges at home, including entrenched corruption and a string of terrorist attacks. "Africa is the next BRIC," she told the Washington Post. "There is value in Africa for those who have the appetite to look in new directions."

STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Austerity. AMERICA OR CHINA? Both. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Arab Spring. READING LIST: ADifferent Sky, by Meira Chand; Ill Fares the Land, by Tony Judt; Zero-Sum World, by Gideon Rachman. BEST IDEA: $1 a gallon gasoline tax for Americans. WORST IDEA: The American Tea Party's proposal to keep reducing taxes.

~J lA~l rRilC~ffi For explaining why the developing world isn't developing. Economist, Harva rd University I Cambridge, Mass.

Lant Pritchett is known for pairing careful empiricism with willful provocation: Several years ago he likened the notion

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105

of restricting immigration to apartheid. In his recent research, the former World Bank economist has advanced a similarly blunt argument-that many poor countries, though they appear to be struggling towa rd a better future, are simply faking it. By measuring the development of institutions rather than actual outcomes, Pritchett argues, international organizations and aid donors have given rise to the phenomenon of " isomorphic mimicry": Like the viceroy butterfly, which mimics the appearance of a poisonous monarch to avoid being eaten, weak states are merely aping the institutional trappings of developed countries. In reality, many countries are stuck in a state of suspended evolution. , "At the current rate of progress, Pritchett said this year, "it will take literally thousands of years for many developing countries to reach Singapore's level of capability." Pritchett's solution is straightforward: Do a better job of measuring the things that matter. Rather than counting post offices, ask whether the mail is getting delivered. Rather than ta llying the numbers of enrolled students, find out if they're learning anything. This may be easier sa id than done, but at least it's a start. MUSE: Still Springsteen. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? Has to be both. READING LIST: The Pale King, by David Foster Wallace; Flourish, by Martin E.P. Seligman; ASecular Age, by Charles Taylor. BEST IDEA: Some of my students have founded an organization- IDinsightto help organizations use the feedback from rigorous evaluation to improve their practices. WORST IDEA: Arizona's immigration law seems aimed at undermining America's greatest strength-openness to ideas and people.

106

FoREIGN P oLICY

~~ MARl K~RAI~~I

~4 AR~~~~All ROY For being the voice of India's voiceless.

For giving a kinder face to euroskepticism.

For crowdsourcing world saving.

Author I India

Mayor of Lo ndon I Britain

President, Globa/Givi1tg Foundation I Washingto n

Arundhati Roy began writing her debut novel , The God of Small Things, in 1992 , the yea r after India's near-bankrupt government embarked upon an ambitious agenda of economic liberalization. By the time Roy's book landed her a $ 1 million advance and the prestigious Man Booker Prize , India was riding a wave of economic growth that has quintupled the country's GOP since 1991. But a collision between the outspoken left-wing artist and the rising Indi a n tiger was all but inevitable. A passionate critic of Hindu nationalism and India ' s nuclear and Kashmir policies, Roy pushed one too many buttons with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's administration last year by visiting a training camp run by Maoist guerrillas. The government clamped down, threatening pro-rebel activists with jail time . Undeterred, Roy published a short book of essays on the Maoists, Walking with the Comrades-so far staying out of jail in spite of doing so-and made similarly incendiary visits to Kashmir to protest the Indian military campaign there. Roy's support for the Maoists-who are hardly blameless in a conflict that has now c laimed 6,000 lives-may be misgu ided , but she has put her finger on the very real cost of India 's economic boom. "We are watching a democracy turning on itself, trying to eat its own limbs," she warns.

No one expected the unga inly, towheaded London mayor and Telegraph columnist, previously best known for his bike-share programs and scandalous personal life, to turn into a global heavyweight. But as Europe collapsed around him-and his own city erupted with anti-austerity riots- Boris Johnson's lifelong bent toward a kinder, gentler euroskepticism started to seem inc redibly prescient. In October, he defied his Conservative Party-and leader and riva l David Cameron (No. 39)-to call for a referendum on bringing Britain out of the EU. " The Briti sh people haven't had a say on Europe since 197 5 ," he pointed out. Johnson spent the yea r pushing back against what he ca lled "snooty europhiles" in Berlin and Brusse ls who would belttighten the continent's way into monetary unity. About the London riots, when he was c riticized for stay ing on vacation during the first rash of violence but responded with a string of very un-Tory stimulus measures including afterschool programs for at-risk youth, he wrote, " We can be less squeamish about police violence, or we can be less squeamish about the rea Iities of young people's needs." It's no surprise that Johnson seems headed for reelection next yea r-and after that, many say, the top of the Conservative ticket.

Mari Kuraishi has proved that, thanks to the Internet, everyone can be a philanthropist-and the giant development institutions no longer have a monopoly on efforts to improve the lot of the world 's poorest. In 2000, the Japanese native left a successful career at the World Bank to found GlobaiGiving-a website she describes as an "eBay for philanthropy" that revolutionized the field by connecting a worldwide community of donors with ventures in need of funding. A decade later, hundreds of thousa nds of donors have pooled their funds- the average donation is around $25-to give more than $50 million to more than 4,500 projects. Kuraishi's interactive approach has allowed innovations to flourish in a way that has been impossible at bureaucratic and top-down institutions such as the World Bank. "With masses of active people," she has said , "we'll get more innovation, more creativity, more of a shot at solving the problem of global poverty." MUSE: lady Gaga. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus. AMERICA OR CHINA? America. ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Arab Spring. READING LIST: Bossypants, by Tina Fey; The Lost Books of the Odyssey, by Zachary Mason; The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks, by Rebecca Skloot. BEST IDEA: Repealing "don't ask, don't tell." WORST IDEA: Forgiving student debts.

~1 A~VI~~ S~BMMA~IA~

For standing up to Hugo Chavez.

For soundingthe alarm on China's economic ascendancy.

Ed itor, Tal Cual I Venezuela

Senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Ec01zomics I Washington

One cold February morning in 2021, the U .S. president comes hat in hand to the China-dominated International Monetary Fund to request emergency financing to shore up an American economy racked by more than a decade of anemic grow th and spiraling debt. In exchange, the Chinese demand-and receive- the w ithdrawal of American naval bases from the Pacific and an onerous restructuring of the U.S. budget. That, at least, is the gloomy scenario that begins econom ist Arvind Subramanian's new book,

ARAB SPRING OR ARAB WINTER? Prolonged autumn. READING LIST: To the End of the Land, by David Grossman; The Prospector, by Jean-Marie Gustave le Clezio; Why the West Rules- for Now, by lan Morris. BEST IDEA: Need to tether China to the multilateral system. WORST IDEA: Government is the problem in the United States.

Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China 's Economic Dominance. To hear

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Subramanian tell it, China is not just looming ever larger in America 's rearview mirror- it has already sped by. He argues that most estimates greatly understate China's economic weight and that the Asian powerhouse's purchasing power actually surpassed that of the United States in 2010. And China's demographic advantages mean there's not much the United States can do about it. "Dominance," he warns, "might be more China's to lose than America' s to retain."

For taking pirates into politics.

MUSE: As for all times, Gandhi. STIMULUS OR AUSTERITY? Stimulus now, austerity later. AMERICA OR CHINA? America.

Founder, Pirate Party I Sweden

" It's more fun to be a pirate than to join the navy," the late Steve Jobs once sa id. No one had to tell Rick Falkvinge , founder and chief evangelist of the growing global Pirate Party movement. A former software entrepreneur and Microsoft employee, Falkv inge founded the original party in Sweden in 2006. It rose to prominence following a government crackdown on the Pirate Bay file-sharing site , and Pirate Parties are now active in more than 25 countries. Indeed, 2011 may be remembered as the year Falkvinge's big idea

broke through into the public consciousness. His Pirates still aren't exactly mainstream, but the issues they focus on-government transparency, Internet privacy, and copyright law- are very much in the zeitgeist, and their ranks are growing. The Swedish and Swiss Pirate Parties have aided Wikileaks, offering the controversial site server space and web hosting; a self-described Pirate Party activist was named secretary of youth and sports in Tunisia's revolutionary cabinet; and in September, the Pirates won a shocking 8. 9 percent of the vote in Berlin's state elections. Falkvinge also made Internet waves this year with his highprofile advocacy of Bitcoin, a digital currency that is either the future of global commerce or a hightech form of money launderingdepending on whom you ask. MUSE: John Stuart Mill. AMERICA OR CHINA? Neither. Brazil and India. READING LIST: Guns, Germs, and Steel, by Jared Diamond; Peopleware, by Tom DeMarco and Timothy lister; Information Feudalism, by Peter Drahos with John Braithwaite. BEST IDEA: Bitcoin. Distributed cryptocurrency will change the economic game entirely. WORST IDEA: Anything related to harder enforcement of the copyright monopoly.

If Teodoro Petkoff's resumestudent demonstrator, guerrilla fighter, economic policymaker, j ourna listis an archetypal Latin American intellectual's , so is his role in Hugo Chavez's Venezuela : the newspaper editor-cum-opposition leader. Since quitting government service 12 years ago, the irrepressible Petkoff has u sed his editorial posts-as well as a short-lived 2006 presidential bid- to establish himself as one of the most prominent and persistent critics of Venezuela's red shirted president. When a pro-Chavez National Assembly granted t he president expanded executive powers over the economy, courts, and individual rights last December, Petkoff wrote, "Chavez has begun to take the path of dictatorship." When the government pushed through a minimumwage hike in April, complicating efforts to control Venezuela 's alarming 27 percent inflation , Petkoff warned that policymakers had gotten themselves "stuck in a swamp of quicksand." After Chavez returned f rom cancer treatment this summer as a self-professed changed man just in time for next year's polls, Petkoff wryly noted the "very clear electoral campaign message" in the president's newfound moderation . Against a backdrop of steadily shrinking media freedom in Venezuela , Petkoff' s c rusade is an increasingly necessary one.

__L DECEMBER

2011

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For bringing the spirit of the French Resistance to aglobal society that has lost its heart. Author I Frmtce

Stephane Hessel has a fair claim to being the world's most interesting man: He's the son of the real-life model for the woman in Jules et Jim, a French Resistance fighter during World War II who survived torture in Buchenwald, and a concentrationcamp escapee who later helped Eleanor Roosevelt edit the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Even at 94, when he talks, people listen. So when he published a pamphletlength book last year, lndignez-Vous! (published in English as Time for Outrage), people bought it-by the millions around the world, making Hessel a bona fide publishing phenomenon. The book is a short polemic, an old lefty's impassioned cri de coeur against a society that has forgotten the postwar values of

tolerance and social responsibility and fallen under what Hessel calls the "international dictatorship of the financial markets." It struck a major chord in a year when everyone, it seemed, was indignant about something. When protesters in Spain began calling themselves los indignados, it was clear that Hessel's message had leapt borders. "The basic motive of the Resistance was indignation," Hessel writes. "We, veterans of the French Resistance ... call on you, our younger generations, to revive and carry forward the heritage and ideals of the Resistance. Here is our message: It's time to take over!"

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