John K. Warren Evaporites : Sediments, Resources and Hydrocarbons
John K. Warren
Evaporites : Sediments, Resources and Hydrocarbons With 654 Figures
123
Professor John K. Warren Department Petroleum Geoscience University Brunei Darussalam Brunei
E-mail :
[email protected] ISBN-10 ISBN-13
3-540-26011-0 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York 978-3-540-26011-0 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York
Library of Congress Control Number: 2005932089 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springer.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006 Printed in Germany The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Typesetting: Camera-ready by author Cover design: E. Kirchner, Heidelberg Production: Almas Schimmel Printing and binding: Stürtz AG, Würzburg, Germany Printed on acid-free paper 32/3141/as 5 4 3 2 1 0
3UHIDFH 0\DLPLQZULWLQJWKLVERRNLVWRRIIHUDFRPSUHKHQVLYHV\QWKHVLV RIWKHORZWHPSHUDWXUHVHGLPHQWDU\ UHDOPRIHYDSRULWHHYROX WLRQ,W·VQRZPRUHÀ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À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
,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNWKHIROORZLQJLQGLYLGXDOVDQGFRPSDQLHV ZKRDOORZPHWRZRUNDWWKHWKLQJV,HQMR\PRVWJHRORJLFDO UHVHDUFK DQG WUDLQLQJ )LUVW DQG IRUHPRVW P\ WKDQNV WR KLV 0DMHVW\6XOWDQ+DML+DVVDQDO%RONLDK0X L]]DGLQ:DGGDXODK 6XOWDQ
9LLMMYVU[HYLH [OYVTIVSP[LZ ,:, ZS
«T
;PTL
ZS
«T
;PTL
%,27$/
,VRSDFKRXVVWURPDWROLWHV
/DJRRQDOFDUERQDWHV
&DUERQDWHVZLWKHYDSRULWHV
2SHQPDULQHFDUERQDWHV
2UJDQLFULFKPHVRKDOLQHODPLQLWHV
6WURPDWROLWHSHORLGDO
&DOFLXPVXOSKDWHVKDOLWH
7DOXV
(
35(&,3,7$7(6
&RTXLQD
)LEURXVPDULQHFHPHQWV
ZS
«T
;PTL ;OYVTIVSP[LZ :[YVTH[VSP[LVWWVY[\UPZ[Z
)
6VSP[LZ
7YLKYH^KV^UTHYPUL
?b`nk^*'1'L\a^fZmb\lh_fZkbg^\Zk[hgZm^mh^oZihkbm^mkZglbmbhgl':"Mrib\ZemkZglbmbhgl%lahpbg`k^eZmbo^ihlbmbhglbgma^[Zlbg lmkZmb`kZiarh_ik^\bibmZm^]blhiZ\ahnllmkhfZmhebm^lZg]ma^ik^\bibmZm^]\Zk[hgZm^_Z[kb\lmaZmmrib_rl^]bf^gmlZ\\nfneZm& bg`f^lhaZebg^\Zk[hgZm^lbff^]bZm^erikbhkmh\hfie^m^[ZlbgblheZmbhgZg]]kZp]hpgmaZm]^Ûg^lma^hgl^mh_[Zlbgpb]^ \Ze\bnflneiaZm^Zg](hkaZebm^^oZihkbm^]^ihlbmbhg!Z_m^kIhi^^mZe'%+)))"';"IeZm_hkf^]`^]blmkb[nmbhgh_lmkhfZmhebm^l Zg]makhf[hebm^lk^eZmbo^mh\r\eb\l^Z&e^o^e\aZg`^l]nkbg`ma^BgmkZ&F^llbgbZgÜhh]bg`^o^gmbgZfZk`bgZeF^]bm^kkZg^Zg ln[&[Zlbg'Mbf^*"K^eZmbo^ab`al^Z&e^o^elmZg]pbmamakhf[hebm^`khpmabgma^ln[mb]Zeshg^Zmma^_khgmk^^_%hhebm^]^ihlbmbhg bgma^]^^i^kiZkmlh_ma^[Z\d&k^^_Zk^Z%Zg]lmkhfZmhebm^`khpmabgma^bgm^kmb]Zeshg^h_ma^[Z\d&k^^_Zk^Z'Mbf^+"K^eZmbo^ ehpl^Z&e^o^elmZg]ikhfhmbg`makhf[hebm^`khpmabgma^[ZlbgpZk]fb`kZm^]ln[mb]Zeshg^Zmma^_khgmk^^_Zg]hiihkmngblm lmkhfZmhebm^`khpmabgma^bgm^kmb]Zeshg^hg[hmama^ik^obhnler]^ihlbm^]hhb]lZg]lZg]makhf[hebm^l'Mbf^,"K^eZmbo^ab`a l^Z&e^o^elmZg]pbmamakhf[hebm^l`khpbg`ho^kma^ik^\^]bg`lmkhfZmhebm^lbgma^ln[mb]Zeshg^Zmma^_khgmk^^_%hiihkmngblm lmkhfZmhebm^`khpmabgma^bgm^kmb]Zeshg^h_ma^[Z\d&k^^_Zk^Z%Zg]lZg]]^ihlbmbhgbgma^]^^i^kpZm^kh_ma^[Z\d&k^^_Zk^Z !Z_m^k?^e]fZggZg]FZ\d^gsb^%*220"'
&+$37(5
7KXV WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI PLFURELDO VWUXFWXUHV GXULQJ WKH 0HVVLQLDQ VHHPV WR EH UHODWHG DOWKRXJK LQGLUHFWO\ WR WKH HQGRIHDFK´VDOLQLW\FULVLVµ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
=HKVZLWPZVSP[LZVVPKZHUKV[OLYJVH[LKNYHPUZ )HQHVWUDOFDUERQDWHVVRPHWLPHVLQWHUFDODWHGZLWKJUDLQVWRQHV DUHIUHTXHQWO\LQWHUSUHWHGDVSHULWLGDOVHGLPHQWV6KLQQ mbufsbm
vq
Ejsfdujpobm fmpohbujpot epxo
Qfsdife jodmvtjpot
Jo.qmbdf hspxui
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ÀWWLQJRISLVRLGVWKDWLPSO\WKH\IRUPHG´LQVLWXµ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ÀHGE\WKH´WRDQGIURµRIWKHVWUDQGOLQH HGJHRIDEULQHODNHRUVHDZD\LQD]RQHRIJURXQGZDWHUVHHS DJH7KHDVVRFLDWHGZDWHUWDEOHURVHDQGIHOODVSRUHZDWHU FRQGLWLRQVDOWHUQDWHGEHWZHHQYDGRVHDQGSKUHDWLF
3LVROLWHFUXVWFHPHQWVIRUPHGLQDVWUDQG]RQHUHWDLQLQÀOWUDWHG PLFULWHDQGSHQGXORXVJUDLQXQGHUKDQJVWKDWLQGLFDWHWKHVHGL PHQWVSHQWDWOHDVWDSDUWRILWVWLPHDERYHWKHZDWHUWDEOH7KH WHUP YDGRVH SLVROLWH LV VRPHWLPHV XVHG WR GLVWLQJXLVK WKHVH HYDSRULWLFSLVROLWHVIURPSHUPDQHQWO\VXEDTXHRXVLVRSDFKRXV ´PDULQHµSLVROLWHVRUWKHSHGRJHQLFDOO\IRUPHGFDOFUHWHSLVROLWHV Qpmzhpobm 7KH SUHÀ[ PDULQH LV D OLWWOH PLVOHDGLQJ ZKHQ GHVFULELQJ gjuujoh LVRSDFKRXV SLVROLWH FUXVWV 0RGHUQ H[DPSOHV RI LVRSDFKRXV SLVROLWHVDORQJZLWKÀWWHGSLVROLWKFUXVWVGHÀQH&D&2VDWX UDWHG SHULSKHUDO PDULQH VHHSDJH DUHDV RQ WKH VWUDQGSODLQ RI HYDSRULWHÀOOHGFRDVWDOODNHVLQZHVWHUQDQGVRXWKHUQ$XVWUDOLD Jo.qmbdf!hspxui Jowfstf :DUUHQDD+DQGIRUGHWDO DQGWKHWKHUPDO boe0ps hsbejoh jo.qmbdf!tpsujoh VSULQJIHG PDUJLQV RI ODUJH KDOLWHÀOOHG FRQWLQHQWDO VDODUV LQWKH$QGHDQ$OWLSODQR5LVDFKHUDQG(XJVWHU-RQHV DQG5HQDXW %RWKVHWWLQJVODFNDVXUIDFHFRQQHFWLRQWR ?b`nk^*'2'?Z[kb\lh_iblhb]l\k^Zm^][rbg&ieZ\^ikh\^ll^l' PDULQHZDWHUV7KHWHUPVHHSDJHVKRXOGSHUKDSVUHSODFHWKH :emahn`aZeema^l^_^Zmnk^laZo^[^^gbgm^kik^m^]Zlk^jnbkbg` oZ]hl^ihk^\hg]bmbhgl%hger]hpgpZk]]bk^\mbhgZe^ehg`Zmbhg WHUPPDULQHZKHQGHVFULELQJVWUDQG]RQHSLVROLWHV !fb\kh&lmZeZ\mbm^" k^jnbk^ ln\a Zg bgm^klmbmbZe \hg]bmbhg !Z_m^k >lm^[ZgZg]IkZr%*21,"'
,17(535(7,1*(9$325,7(7(;785(
$
%
&
?b`nk^*'*)'Iblhebm^l_khfI^kfbZgh_p^lmM^qZl':"Ihebla^]leZ[h_iblhebmb\]hehfbm^_khfma^nii^kfhlmRZm^l?hkfZmbhg' Ghm^k^o^kl^`kZ]bg`h_`kZbgl%Zg] Ûmm^]_Z[kb\bgpab\a`kZbglaZo^bgm^keh\d^][hng]Zkb^likh]n\^][r\hfikhfbl^ `khpmah_hnm^k\hZmbg`l'LZfie^_khfkhZ]lb]^hnm\khiZm aZbkibgmnkghgG^pF^qb\hAb`apZr0bghebZg`rilnfbgma^;hgg^obee^lZemÜZml%NmZa':" 3
SpsS
4
S
2
Njofsbmjtbujpo!pg!qsffyjtjujoh!gbvmut boe!cfeejoh!qmboft!.!tpnf!npujpo bddpnqbojft!njofsbmjtbujpo!. wfsujdbm!gjcsft!jo!wfjot!joejdbuf wfsujdbm!fyufotjpo
3
4
6XSHULPSRVHGRQWKHVHSURFHVVHVPD\ EHWKH IRUFH RI FU\VWDOOLVDWLRQRI J\S 4 4 VXP6KHDUPDQHWDO VXJJHVWHG 4 4 tbmu WKDW GLVSODFLYH VDWLQVSDU YHLQLQJ LV D 4 4 IHDWXUH RI DQK\GULWH K\GUDWLRQ ZKLFK 444 PD\KDYHEHHQGXHWRK\GURIUDFWXULQJ 4!>!tbmu!tpmvujpo E\RYHUSUHVVXUHGFRQÀQHGJURXQGZDWHU DV H[KXPHG DQK\GULWH UHFRQYHUWHG WR ?b`nk^*'-)'oZihkZmbhgiZmapZrh_fh]^kgl^ZpZm^klahpbg`ahp]^glbmrbg\k^Zl^lZg] ma^ikhihkmbhglh_oZkbhnlbhglbglhenmbhg\aZg`^Zlma^[kbg^\hg\^gmkZmbhgbg\k^Zl^l' FRPSOH[LW\,QWKHHQGPDQ\RIWKH K^\hfibe^]_khf]ZmZbgZii^g]b\^lbgF\n`lm^k%*20*"'
%&LVIROORZHGSURGXFLQJWKHUPRQDWULWHDQGWURQDDW&7KH UHPRYDORI+&2DORQJSDWK%&XQGHUWKHVHFRQGLWLRQVDOVR FDXVHV D PDUNHG ULVH LQ WKH S+ DONDOLQLW\ DV WKH VROXWLRQ FRPSHQVDWHVIRU+&2UHPRYDOE\WKHUHDFWLRQ &2+2 +&22+ ,Q VSLWH RI WKLV FRPSHQVDWLRQ WKH +&2&2 UDWLR LQ ODNH 0DJDGLEULQHVIDOOVZHOOEHORZWKDWRIDWPRVSKHULFHTXLOLE ULXP HVSHFLDOO\ LQ QXWULHQWULFK ZDWHUV ZLWK D Á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
(YLTVZ[JVU[PULU[HSZHS[SHRLZO`KYVSVNPJHSS`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ÀOOHGZLWKXSWRPRI+RORFHQHFDUERQDWHDQG VKRZPLQHUDORJLHVWKDWUDQJHIURPORZ0JFDOFLWHWRKLJK0J FDOFLWHWRFDOFLDQGRORPLWHWRPDJQHVLDQGRORPLWHPDJQHVLWH WR DUDJRQLWHK\GURPDJQHVLWH WR DUDJRQLWHJ\SVXP )LJXUH D &DOFLWHVDQGFDOFLDQGRORPLWHVWHQGWRGRPLQDWHLQODNHV ZLWK ORZHU DYHUDJH DQQXDO VDOLQLWLHV ZKLOH WKH PDJQHVLDQ
&+$37(5
FDUERQDWH SKDVHV DORQJ ZLWK DUDJRQLWHJ\SVXP WHQG WR GRPLQDWHODNHVZLWKKLJKHUDYHUDJHVDOLQLWLHV:DUUHQ 'XULQJWKHGHVLFFDWHGVWDJHRIWKHODWHVXPPHUKDOLWH0J62 HIÁRUHVFHQFHVIRUPDWRSFDUERQDWHPXGÁDWVLQPDQ\&RRURQJ ODNHVEXWDUHÁXVKHGIURPWKHV\VWHPE\ZLQWHUUDLQV0LQ HUDOYDULDWLRQLQWKH&RRURQJODNHVLOOXVWUDWHVWKHLPSRUWDQFH RIUHODWLYHUDWHVRIEULQHORVVUHVLGHQFHWLPHDQGOHDNDJH LQ FRQWUROOLQJPLQHUDORJ\LQWKLVK\GURORJLFDOO\RSHQFRQWLQHQWDO V\VWHP$YHUDJHEULQHUHVLGHQFHWLPHVLQWKHGLIIHUHQWODNHV XOWLPDWHO\FRQWUROPLQHUDORJLFDVVHPEODJH7KRVHODNHVZLWK OHDNLHUEDVHPHQWVDOORZDPRUHUDSLGWKURXJKÁXVKRIZDWHUV DQGVRVKRZORZHUORQJWHUPVDOLQLWLHVDQGVRDFFXPXODWHOHVV VDOLQHSUHFLSLWDWHV
WHQG WR KDYH VDOW ODNHV ZLWK VHDZDWHUOLNH 1D&O GRPLQDWHG EULQHV7\SH,,RUWKDODVVLFEULQHV 0DQ\$XVWUDOLDQSOD\DV DUHK\GURORJLFDOO\RSHQWKHRXWFURSSLQJSDUWVRIPL[HGORFDO DQGGHHSO\FLUFXODWLQJUHJLRQDOGLVFKDUJHV\VWHPV&KDSWHU $ULGLW\DQGGHHSO\ZHDWKHUHGVRLOSURÀOHVKDYHFKDUDFWHULVHG WKHVHDUHDVVLQFHWKHHDUO\WRPLG7HUWLDU\,RQLFSURSRUWLRQV DQGFKHPLFDOFRQVWLWXHQWVRIVXUIDFHZDWHUVDQGEULQHVYDU\ OLWWOHHYHQDFURVVUHJLRQVRIYDULDEOHEHGURFNOLWKRORJLHV7D EOH *\SVXPZLWKOHVVHUYROXPHVRIKDOLWHDUHFRPPRQ SUHFLSLWDWHVLQVRPHDQGDOOODNHÁRRUVVKRZYDU\LQJGHJUHHV RIEULQHOHDNDJH
-DQNRZVNL DQG -DFREVRQ DQG -DFREVRQ DQG -DQNRZVNL VKRZHGWKDWLQVXFKGHHSO\ZHDWKHUHGDQG LSS FRQWLQHQWDO UHGEHG LQWHULRU RI WKH ( AVULVMIYPULMPUNLYPUN 86$ LQ WKH 3HUPLDQ %HQLVRQ DQG ( ^H[LY SHRLZ\YMHJL >H[LY [HISL *ROGVWHLQ DUJXH VXFK DFLGLF S PVUH 9LN > VDOLQH GHSRVLWV DUH FRPPRQSODFH LQ . S UH :WYPUNaVULO`KYV PV WKHURFNUHFRUGEXWODUJHO\XQUHFRJ [ P 9LMS\_IYPUL Z L K`UHTPJZPU:WYPUN WS\TL HU YPU ;Y I QLVHG7KH\SURSRVHWKHIROORZLQJDV .YV\UK^H[LY FULWHULDIRUWKHUHFRJQLWLRQRIDQFLHQW KP]PKL DFLG VDOLQH ODNHV DQG JURXQGZDWHU 3HRL 3HRL 3HRL >H[LY GHSRVLWV KLJK +62 LQ IOXLG >HOWVVS ;PTIVYHT ;`YYLSS [HISL LQFOXVLRQV LQ GHSRVLWLRQDO DQG HDUO\ :.« >H[LY # GLDJHQHWLF KDOLWH RU RWKHU HYDSRULWH [HISL 7HYPSSH:HUK # PLQHUDOV HOHYDWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQV HX\PMLY :.« :.« RI $O DV ZHOO DV )H DQG 6L LQ WKH :.« VDPH ÁXLG LQFOXVLRQV LGHQWLÀHG .LLYH*SH` HX\PJS\KL UHPDLQV RI DFLGRSKLOLF EDFWHULD RU RWKHU DFLGRSKLOLF PLFUREHV DFLG ?b`nk^+'+):\b]eZd^_hkfZmbhg[Zl^]hgfh]^kggZmnkZeZ\b]eZd^Zg]`khng]pZm^k PLQHUDOVVXFKDVDOXQLWHRUMDURVLWHRU lrlm^fl\^gmk^]hgEZd^Mrk^eebglhnma^kg:nlmkZebZ!Z_m^kFZ\nf[^k*22+4Erhgl^m Ze'%*22."'Ma^l^k^][^]lbeb\b\eZlmb\l^]bf^gmlh_ma^IZkbeeZlZg]Zjnb_^kahlmlneiankb\& PRUH OLNHO\ WKH GLDJHQHWLFSURGXFWV Z\b]&kb\alZebg^eZd^lZg]`khng]pZm^kl!iAlh_+-"pab\aik^\bibmZm^Zengbm^%cZkhlbm^% RIDFLGPLQHUDOVVXFKDVJ\SVXPRU aZebm^%`rilnf%hiZebg^lbeb\Z%Zg]ihllb[erbkhghqrar]khqb]^l':\b]bÛ\ZmbhgfZrh\\nk DQK\GULWH SUHVHQFHRIFRQWLQHQWDO bgma^`khng]pZm^k[rikh\^ll^lln\aZlhqb]Zmbhgh_irkbm^%_^kkherlbl%Zg]fb\kh[bZe UHGEHGVDQG ODFNRIZLGHVSUHDG k^]n\mbhg h_ bkhg hqrar]khqb]^l' ;kbg^ Ûg`^kbg` mribÛ^l ma^ fbqbg` shg^ [^mp^^g k^`bhgZe`khng]pZm^khnmÜhpZg]ma^[kbg^k^Ünqikblf[^g^ZmaEZd^Mrk^ee!EZg]lZm FDUERQDWH PLQHUDOV 7KH\ JR RQ WR DUJXHWKDWPDQ\DQFLHQWUHGEHGKRVWHG bfZ`^\hnkm^lrh_G:L:"' HYDSRULWH VDOLQHSDQ DQG VDOLQHODNH R[LGHV LH JRHWKLWH RU KDHPDWLWH %LJKDP DQG 1RUGVWURP GHSRVLWV ZKLFK ODFN ZLGHVSUHDG VXOSKDWHV LH J\SVXP RU DQK\GULWH 9DQ %UHHPHQ EHGGHGFDUERQDWHVDUHOLNHO\DULG]RQHRXWSXWVIURPDQFLHQW DQGDOXPLQRVLOLFDWHVLHPLFURFOLQHRUDOELWH/RQJ DFLGLFK\GURORJLHV)LJXUH HWDOD :KDWPDNHWKHPLQWHUHVWLQJLVWKDWWKHVHODFXVWULQHUHGEHGV LQGLFDWHWKHLQÁXHQFHRIJURXQGZDWHUVFDUU\LQJHOHYDWHGOHYHOVRI VXOSKXULFDFLGS+LQWKHPRGHUQV\VWHPVRI$XVWUDOLDW\SLFDOO\ LQWKHUDQJH LQWHUDFWLQJZLWKWKHQHXWUDOK\SHUVDOLQHZDWHUV RIWKHODNHLWVHOI7KHUHJLRQDOZDWHUVRIWKHUHJROLWKDUHYHU\
7KHVSULQJVHHSUHJLRQLQWKH/DNH7\UHOORXWÁRZ]RQHZDVRQH RIWKHÀUVWZHWSOD\DVGRFXPHQWHGZLWKVLQNLQJEULQHSOXPH ÀQJHUVLQWKHD[LDOVDXFHUVRISRO\JRQVRIFRQYHFWLYHXSZHOOLQJ JURXQGZDWHUDFURVVWKH]RQHRISKUHDWLFPL[LQJDERXWWKHODNH HGJH)LJXUH/\RQVHWDO $VXSZHOOLQJUHJLRQDO JURXQGZDWHUUHDFKHVWKH/DNH7\UHOOGHSUHVVLRQLWHYDSRUDWHV
%5,1((92/87,21
DQGFRQFHQWUDWHVDQGVREHFRPHVGHQVHU,WWKHQVLQNVWRPL[ LQWRWKHUHJLRQDOJURXQGZDWHUFURVVÁRZDWRSWKH*HHUD&OD\ DTXLFOXGH5DWKHUWKDQVLQNLQJDVDKRPRJHQRXVIURQWWKHVH GHVFHQGLQJZDWHUVVLQNDVGHQVHUEULQHÀQJHUVVXUURXQGHGE\XS ZDUGÁRZLQJSRO\JRQDOFHOOVRIIUHVKHUUHVXUJLQJJURXQGZDWHU WKDWFRQWLQXDOO\UHVXSSO\WKHHYDSRUDWLQJZDWHUVXUIDFH)LJXUH 7KLVFRQYHFWLYHFRXQWHUÁRZFUHDWHVODUJHYDULDWLRQVLQ ÁXLGFRPSRVLWLRQLQVKRUWKRUL]RQWDOGLVWDQFHV0LJUDWLRQRIWKH ÀQJHUVRYHUWLPHFUHDWHVQXPHURXVODWHUDOO\PLJUDWLQJUHGR[DQG VDOLQLW\LQWHUIDFHVZKHUHGLDJHQHWLFPLQHUDOVFDQEDFNUHDFWDQG SUHFLSLWDWH7KLVSDWFK\GLDJHQHVLVIXUWKHUFRPSOLFDWHVVLPSOH PRGHOVIRUWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHRULJLQDO´UHGEHGµSUHFLSLWDWHV DQGH[SODLQVWKHFRPSOH[FRXQWHUSOD\VRIVDOLQLW\LQGLFDWRUV VHHQLQDQFLHQWVSULQJVHHSVWUDQG]RQHV&KDSWHU %DVHGXSRQWKHRUHWLFDODQGH[SHULPHQWDOHYLGHQFH:RRGLQJ DQG 7\OHU DQG :RRGLQJ SRVWXODWHG WKDW QHDU WKH HYDSRUDWLQJ ZDWHU VXUIDFH WKH GRZQZDUG PRYHPHQW RI GHQVHEULQHLVFRQÀQHGWRÀQJHUVRUSOXPHVRIGHQVHÁXLGV VXUURXQGHGE\DQXSZDUGÁRZRIIUHVKHUZDWHUVXSSO\LQJWKH HYDSRUDWLQJ VXUIDFH 6LPLODU FRQYHFWLYH SRO\JRQV FDQ DOVR RFFXU LQ IUHHVWDQGLQJ ]RQHV RI PL[LQJ QHDU WKH VWUDQG]RQH HGJHV RI FRDVWDO VDOLQDV DQG VDOWZRUNV 7\OHU DQG :RRGLQJ VKRZHGWKDWWKHFRQGLWLRQVQHFHVVDU\IRUWKHRQVHWRI ÀQJHUHG SRO\JRQDO FRQYHFWLRQ EHQHDWK DQ HYDSRUDWLYH ZHW SOD\DVXUIDFHDUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\DPRGLÀHG5D\OHLJKQXPEHU 5FRIWKHIRUP 5F NJ6l +¡ ZKHUHNLVWKHLQWULQVLFSHUPHDELOLW\LQFP 6lLVWKHGLIIHU HQFHLQGHQVLW\EHWZHHQWKHHYDSRUDWHGEULQHDQGWKHUHJLRQDO JURXQGZDWHULQJPFF +LVWKHG\QDPLFYLVFRVLW\¡LVWKH HYDSRUDWLRQUDWHDQGJLVWKHDFFHOHUDWLRQGXHWRJUDYLW\ )RU D SOD\D JURXQGZDWHU V\VWHP WR H[KLELW EULQH ÀQJHULQJ 7\OHUDQG:RRGLQJ DQG)HUJXVRQHWDO VXJJHVWHG WKDWWKH5D\OHLJKFULWHULD5F PXVWEHDURXQGRUKLJKHU &RQWUROOLQJ IDFWRUV OHDGLQJ WR EULQH LQVWDELOLW\ DQG FRQYHF WLYH ÀQJHULQJ DUH VHGLPHQW SHUPHDELOLW\ GHQVLW\ FRQWUDVW EHWZHHQWKHEULQHDQGUHJLRQDOJURXQGZDWHURXWÁRZDQGWKH HYDSRUDWLRQUDWH8VLQJW\SLFDOSOD\DSDUDPHWHUVRI6l JFPDQG¡ FP\HDUOWKHQWKHVHGLPHQWSHUPHDELOLW\ PXVWEHFPPG RUKLJKHUIRUWKHSOD\DJURXQGZDWHU V\VWHPWREHJLQWRSRO\JRQDOO\FRQYHFW7KLVSHUPHDELOLW\OLHV EHWZHHQWKDWRIXQFRQVROLGDWHGFOD\DQGVDQG)LJXUH VXJJHVWLQJWKDWVSULQJ]RQHVLQVDQG\RUSHUPHDEOHFDUERQDWH VHGLPHQWVVXFKDVWKRVHW\SLFDOO\IRXQGQHDUSOD\DDQGPDULQH VWUDQG]RQHPDUJLQVDUHOLNHO\WRH[KLELWEULQHÀQJHULQJDQG
ODWHUDOO\PLJUDWLQJUHGR[DQGVDOLQLW\LQWHUIDFHV3HUKDSVVRPH RIWKHPHJDSRO\JRQDOSDWWHUQVVHHQLQGRPDOVWURPDWROLWHVDQG WHSHHVDERXWWKHVWUDQG]RQHRI0DULRQODNHDQGRWKHUPRGHUQ FRDVWDOVDOLQDVDUHWKHUHVXOWRIVWDEOHFRQYHFWLYHSRO\JRQVLQ DUHVXUJHQWEULQHK\GURORJ\)LJXUHEF
*VU[YPI\[PVUZMYVTL]HWVYP[LILKYVJR 'LIÀFXOWLHVLQGLVWLQJXLVKLQJPDULQHYHUVXVQRQPDULQHVRXUFHV DUHIXUWKHUFRPSOLFDWHGE\RQJRLQJGLVVROXWLRQRIROGHUH[ KXPHGHYDSRULWHVZKLFKFDQDFWDVFKHPLFDOIHHGVLQWRSXUHO\ FRQWLQHQWDOK\GURJUDSKLFDOO\FORVHGEDVLQV,QDUHDVWRRFRQWL QHQWDOIRUVLJQLÀFDQWFRQWULEXWLRQVIURPPDULQHDHURVROVWKLV FDQVWLOOFUHDWHPDULQHOLNHVLJQDWXUHVLQWKHLRQLFSURSRUWLRQV 1D.0J62&O EULQHV )RU H[DPSOH FDUQDOOLWHV\OYLWH KDOLWHLVDPRGHUQODNHSUHFLSLWDWHLQ4DLGDP%DVLQQRUWKHUQ 4LQJKDL;L]DQJ RQ WKH 7LEHW 3ODWHDX &KLQD )LJXUH 7KLVEDVLQOLHVZLWKLQDODUJHWHFWRQLFDOO\DFWLYHUHJLRQWKDWLV WRWDOO\LVRODWHGIURPWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHRFHDQDQGLVÀOOHGZLWK 1HRJHQHFODVWLFVDQGHYDSRULWHV,WVPRGHUQDWVXUIDFHGLVFKDUJH SOD\DVDUHVXEMHFWWRLQWHQVHHYDSRUDWLRQDQGDUHFKDUDFWHULVHG E\HSKHPHUDOK\SHUVDOLQHEULQHVDVZHOODVKDOLWHSRWDVKDQG ERUDWHFUXVWVDQGOD\HUV 7KHFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQDQG1D&OUDWLRVRIWKHGLVVROYHG VROXWHVLQWKHPRGHUQEULQHVDQGZDWHUVLQWKHVDOWODNHVRI 4DLGDP %DVLQ UHYHDOV WKUHH PDLQ VRXUFHV 9HQJRVK HW DO ,QÁRZRIKRWVSULQJVHQULFKHGLQVRGLXPVXOSKDWH DQGERURQ(YDSRUDWLRQRIWKHVHZDWHUVOHDGVWRDKLJK1D&O UDWLR ! D 1D&O62 EULQH DQG DQ HYDSRULWH PLQHUDO DV VHPEODJH RI KDOLWHPLUDELOLWHERUDWH HJ /DNHV 'DTDLGDP DQG;LDRTDLGDP ,QÁRZVXUIDFHULYHUZDWHUVZKLFKDUH PRGLÀHGE\SUHIHUHQWLDOGLVVROXWLRQRIROGHUKDOLWHDQGSRWDV VLXPDQGPDJQHVLXPVDOWV(YDSRUDWLRQRIVXFKZDWHUVFUHDWHV 1D0J &OEULQHVZLWKORZ1D&O DQGORZ%U&O/L&O DQG%&OUDWLRV &D&OVXEVXUIDFHEULQHVZLWKFKHPLVWULHV FRQWUROOHGE\ERWKVDOWGLVVROXWLRQDQGGRORPLWL]DWLRQSURF HVVHV (YDSRUDWLRQ DQG VDOW FU\VWDOOLVDWLRQ IURP PL[WXUHV RI EULQHV DQG OHDGV WR D ´PDULQHOLNHµ 1D0J&O EULQH ZLWK 1D&O UDWLRV $OWKRXJK PRUH WKDQ NP IURP WKHQHDUHVWRFHDQWKHSUHFLSLWDWHGVHTXHQFHRIVDOWVLQWKHVH ODNHVLVVLPLODUWRWKDWSUHGLFWHGIRUSURJUHVVLYHHYDSRUDWLRQ RIVHDZDWHU/DNH'DEX[XPDQG4DUKDQSOD\DWRGD\FRQWDLQ KDOLWHV\OYLWHFDUQDOOLWHELVFKRÀWHVXFFHVVLRQV 7KHORZHUb%YDOXHVRIWKH4DLGDPEDVLQEULQHVDQGKDOLWHV FRPSDUHGWRVHDZDWHUb%§Æ LQGLFDWHWKDWWKHERURQ ZLWKLQWKHVHVDOWODNHVLVQRQPDULQH)LJXUH9HQJRVKHW DO 7KHb%YDOXHVRIWKHGLOXWHLQÁRZZDWHUVWRWKH
&+$37(5
:HS[SHRLZ
+LHK:LH
(Y[PMPJPHSWVUKZ VM8HOHUWSH`H ZHS[^VYRZ
,]HWVYH[LKZLH^H[LY
D)
:LH^H[LY
3HRL +HI\_\T
2HYZ[WVUK
:HSPUL.VST\K9P]LY
3HRL *OHRH
,]HWVYH[PVU
-YLZO^H[LY.VST\K9P]LY
+HXHPKHT OV[ZWYPUN 3HRL ?PHV8HPKHT
KDOLWHVDUHDOVRXVHIXOLQGLFDWRUVRIERWK WHPSHUDWXUHDQGVDOLQLW\HVSHFLDOO\ZKHQ PLFURDQDO\WLF WHFKQLTXHV DUH XVHG WR LQWHUSUHWWKHRULJLQDOEULQHFKHPLVWU\,Q WKHODVWWZRGHFDGHVWKHPLFURDQDO\VLVRI EULQHLQFOXVLRQVLQPDULQHKDOLWHVKDVOHG WRDSDUDGLJPVKLIWLQRXUQRWLRQVRIWKH LRQLF VWDELOLW\ RI 3KDQHUR]RLF VHDZDWHU )LJXUH
)YVTPULWYVÄSLZIYPULNLULZPZ VYZ[HIPSP[`&
7UDFHHOHPHQWVLQKDOLWHDQGRWKHUVDOWVFDQ VRPHWLPHVKHOSVXSSRUWDQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ 5H*S RI D PDULQH RULJLQ RI WKH PRWKHU EULQH ?b`nk^+'+*';hkhgblhmhib\Zg]GZ(<ekZmbhlh_pZm^klZg][kbg^lbgma^JZb]Zf HVSHFLDOO\LIPLFURDQDO\WLFWHFKQLTXHVDUH ;Zlbg%H[LY [HISL
>H[LY [HISL
:(305,7(5
7LYTHULU[ )YPUL
:LKPTLU[Z\YMHJL
7,9,550(33(2,:,(
?b`nk^+',/'Ar]kheh`b\Zek^`bf^lZg]ikh\^ll^lbg^oZihkbmb\lrlm^fl':"=^imak^eZm^]f^\aZgblflZg]ikh\^ll^lbgÜn^g\bg` ^oZihkbm^l';"LbfiebÛ^]ar]kheh`rh_ma^mak^^]^ihlbmbhgZel^mmbg`lmaZmZ\\nfneZm^^oZihkbm^l'
%5,1((92/87,21
:KHUHDUHDVRIVWURQJWRSRJUDSKLFUHOLHIGHÀQHWKHEDVLQPDUJLQ DVLQDFRQWLQHQWDOULIWYDOOH\RULQDWUDQVWHQVLRQDOEDVLQDQG UDQJHVHWWLQJXQFRQÀQHGDQGFRQÀQHGPHWHRULFZDWHUW\SLFDOO\ GLVFKDUJHLQWRWKHHGJHVRIDEULQHVDWXUDWHGGHSUHVVLRQ)XU WKHURXWEHQHDWKWKHPRUHFHQWUDODQGWRSRJUDSKLFDOO\ORZHVW SDUWVRIWKHGHSUHVVLRQGHQVLW\LQGXFHGEULQHUHÁX[DQGQRW PHWHRULFWKURXJKSXWLVWKHGRPLQDQWSURFHVVGULYLQJVKDOORZ VXEVXUIDFHÁRZ)LJXUHD ,QDODUJHHYDSRULWHGUDZGRZQ EDVLQVXFKDVLQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQLQWKH/DWH0LRFHQHWKH OHYHORIWKHGLVFKDUJH]RQHDQGWKHZDWHUVXUIDFHRIWKHSHU HQQLDOEULQHGLVFKDUJHODNHZDVDWWLPHVWKRXVDQGVRIPHWUHV EHORZVHDOHYHO*UDYLW\VHHSDJHWKHQPRYHGKXJHYROXPHV RIPDULQHPHWHRULFZDWHUVLQWRWKHGHSUHVVLRQ
EULQHVKHHWVVDOWSDQ %HIRUHGLVFXVVLQJWKHVLJQLÀFDQFHRI K\GURORJ\ WR HYDSRULWLF VHGLPHQWDWLRQ ZH ÀUVW PXVW GHÀQH VRPHJHQHUDOK\GURORJLFDOSULQFLSOHV)LJXUH 7KHK\GURORJ\RIDQHYDSRULWLFVDOLQHPXGÁDWDQGLWVODQGZDUG VXUURXQGVGU\PXGÁDWRUVDQGÁDW LVFRQWUROOHGE\WKHSRVL WLRQRIWKHZDWHUWDEOHLQWKHVHGLPHQWV)LJXUHD 3RUHV EHORZWKHZDWHUWDEOHDUHÀOOHGE\ZDWHURIYDULDEOHVDOLQLW\ DQGFRQVWLWXWHWKHSKUHDWLFRUVDWXUDWHG]RQHZKHUHWKHZDWHU YROXPHVDWXUDWLRQLVWRWDOHTXDOVRU 7KHSKUHDWLF]RQH LVWKHUHJLRQZKHUHJUDYLW\GULYHQJURXQGZDWHUVVHHSGRZQWKH SRWHQWLRPHWULFVORSHWRZDUGGLVFKDUJH]RQHVIRUFHGFRQYHF WLRQ DQGGHQVHIUHHFRQYHFWLQJEULQHVZKLFKDUHFUHDWHGE\ WKHHYDSRUDWLRQRIIUHHVXUIDFHZDWHUVVLQNLQWRXQGHUO\LQJ VWUDWDEULQHUHÁX[
(J[P]LWOYLH[PJ]HKVZLYLNPTL $OO SULPDU\ DQG V\QGHSRVLWLRQDO HYDSRULWHV ÀUVW SUHFLSLWDWH IURPEULQHVRXWFURSSLQJDWWKHWRSRIWKHDFWLYHSKUHDWLF]RQH RULWVFDSLOODU\IULQJH7KLVVHWWLQJLVFDSDEOHRIPDLQWDLQLQJ WKHGHQVLW\RUJUDYLW\KHDGVQHFHVVDU\WRGULYHSRQGDQGFRQ FHQWUDWHODUJHYROXPHVRIEULQHVQHHGHGWRGHSRVLWDQGSUHVHUYH WKLFNVDOWEHGV$QDFWLYHSKUHDWLFÁRZUHJLPHHQFRPSDVVHV WKH]RQHVRIVHHSDJHRXWÁRZEULQHSRQGLQJEULQHUHÁX[DQG PHWHRULFÁRZ)LJXUHD 7KHVXUIDFHRIDSHUHQQLDOEULQH ODNHRUVHDZD\LVWKHRXWFURSSLQJH[SUHVVLRQRIWKHUHJLRQDO ZDWHUWDEOH,QWKHVXUURXQGVZKHUHWKHUHJLRQDOZDWHUWDEOH FRPHVQHDUWKHODQGVXUIDFHWKHWRSRIDFDSLOODU\IULQJHPD\ EHWKHRXWFURSH[SUHVVLRQRIWKHVDPHUHJLRQDOZDWHUWDEOHDQG HYDSRULWLFPXGÁDWVGRPLQDWH6RODUHYDSRUDWLRQGULYHVZDWHU ORVVDWWKHVXUIDFHRIERWKVHWWLQJVWRIRUPERWWRPQXFOHDWHG DQGSHODJLFVDOWVLQDVWDQGLQJZDWHUERG\DQGFDSLOODU\VDOWV LQDPXGÁDW'HSUHVVLRQVZLWKVXUIDFHDQGQHDUVXUIDFHEULQHV LQ DULG VHWWLQJV LQGLFDWH JURXQGZDWHU GLVFKDUJH ]RQHV DQG WKHLURQJRLQJGHVLFFDWLRQFUHDWHVGLVFKDUJHSOD\DVDQGDQFLHQW HYDSRULWH VHDZD\V :DWHU ORVW LV UHSODFHG E\ ZDWHU VHHSLQJ LQ IURP WKH VXUURXQGV FUHDWLQJ D UHSOHQLVKPHQW K\GURORJ\ VRPHWLPHVGHVFULEHGDVHYDSRUDWLYHGUDZGRZQ7KHUHSODFH PHQWZDWHUFDQEHFRQWLQHQWDORUPDULQHDQGFDQEHVXSSOLHG YLDXQFRQÀQHGQHDUVXUIDFHDTXLIHUVRUYLDGHHSO\FLUFXODWLQJ DUWHVLDQV\VWHPV
/`KYVSVNPLZPUZHSPULIHZPUZ +\GURORJLHVWKDWSUHFLSLWDWHVDOWVFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRWZRHQG PHPEHUV)LJXUHE DSHUHQQLDOEULQHODNHRUVHDZD\ VDOWHUQ WKDWDWWLPHVLVGHQVLW\VWUDWLÀHGDQG DQHYDSRULWLF PXGÁDW VDENKD ZLWK D ODQGVXUIDFH GHÀQHG E\ GHÁDWLRQ DW WKHWRSRIWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJH$FRPPRQLQWHUPHGLDU\VWDJH LVDQHYDSRULWLFPXGÁDWRFFDVLRQDOO\FRYHUHGE\WKLQVOXJJLVK
$ERYHWKHZDWHUWDEOHLVWKHYDGRVH]RQHZKHUHSRUHVDUHÀOOHG E\DFRPELQDWLRQRIVRLODLUDQGYDU\LQJOHYHOVRIZDWHUDQG EULQHZDWHUYROXPHVDWXUDWLRQLVOHVVWKDQRQH7KHYDGRVH ]RQHLQGU\PXGÁDWVRUVDQGÁDWVFRQWDLQVDQXSSHUPRVWLQWHUYDO NQRZQDVWKHVRLOPRLVWXUH]RQHZKHUHWKHZDWHUFRQWHQWFDQ YDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\RYHUVKRUWWLPHIUDPHV/LJKWUDLQVW\SLFDOO\ SHQHWUDWHWKHVRLOPRLVWXUH]RQHEXWDUHQRWVXIÀFLHQWWRVDWXUDWH WKHZKROHYDGRVH]RQH3RUHZDWHUUHWXUQVWRWKHDWPRVSKHUH YLD HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ ZLWKRXW HYHU UHSOHQLVKLQJ WKH ZDWHU WDEOH)OXFWXDWLQJHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQOHYHOVLQWKLV]RQHYDU\ ZLGHO\ EHWZHHQ VWRUPV UHÁHFWHG LQ YDULDEOH PHWDEROLF DF WLYLWLHVRIWKHVRLOELRWDYDULDEOHPHDQPRLVWXUHFRQWHQWVDQG YDU\LQJ2DQG&2OHYHOV3HGRJHQLFFDUERQDWHVDQGPRUH VROXEOHVDOWV DUH W\SLFDOO\SUHFLSLWDWHGDV VXUIDFH FUXVWV DQG QHDUVXUIDFHFHPHQWVDVDUHVXOWRIWKHVHÁXFWXDWLRQV:LWKWKH QH[WKHDY\UDLQWKHOHVVVROXEOHFDUERQDWHSUHFLSLWDWHVUHPDLQ ZKLOHDQ\PRUHVROXEOHVDOWVWHQGWREHÁXVKHGEDFNLQWRWKH VXEVXUIDFHWKURXJKDQRZVDWXUDWHGYDGRVHSURÀOHWRUHHQWHU WKHSKUHDWLFZDWHUPDVV
6HGLPHQWV
&DSLOODU\5LVHFP
)LQHVLOW
&RDUVHVLOW
9HU\ILQHVDQG
)LQHVDQG
0HGLXPVDQG
&RDUVHVDQG
9HU\FRDUVHVDQG
)LQHJUDYHO
MZ[e^+'*)K^ik^l^gmZmbo^mab\dg^llh_ma^\ZibeeZkrshg^bg oZkbhnlahlml^]bf^gml'
&+$37(5
*URXQGVXUIDFH
(YDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ GULYHVPRLVWXUHFKDQJHV
6RLOPRLVWXUH ]RQH
3RWHQWLDO IRU GHIODWLRQ 9DGRVH ]RQH
8QVDWXUDWHG ]RQH
0RLVWXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ 0DWUL[ZLWKDLUDQG
YDU\LQJZDWHUEULQH LQSRUHV
6WRNHV6XUIDFH VDENKDVXUIDFH
&DSLOODU\ IULQJH
6DWXUDWHG ]RQH
3KUHDWLF ]RQH
6DWXUDWLRQ
$
:DWHUWDEOH 3KUHDWLFVXUIDFH
0DWUL[ZLWKZDWHUEULQH ILOOHGSRUHV
K\SHUVDOLQH ERWWRPQXFOHDWHV
6DOLQLW\
7HPSHUDWXUH
6DOLQLW\
7HPSHUDWXUH
'HSWK
121675$7,),('
%ULQHUHIOX[
675$7,),(' )UHVKHU
KDORFOLQH
7KH ORZHU SDUW RI WKH YDGRVH ]RQH EHQHDWKDGU\PXGÁDWLVPDGHXSRIWKH FDSLOODU\IULQJHDNDWHQVLRQVDWXUDWHG RUZHWWLQJ]RQH ,QDVDOLQHPXGÁDW WKH FDSLOODU\ IULQJH H[WHQGV DOO WKH ZD\WRWKHODQGVXUIDFH7KHGLDPHWHU RISRUHWKURDWVLQWKHFDSLOODU\]RQH FRQWUROV WKH WKLFNQHVV RI WKH FDSLO ODU\]RQHWKHVPDOOHUWKHWKURDWWKH WKLFNHUWKHFDSLOODU\]RQH,WLVDIHZ PPWKLFNLQVDQGVDQGPHWUHVWKLFN LQÀQHFOD\V7DEOH 3RUHVLQWKH FDSLOODU\ IULQJH DUH QRW FRPSOHWHO\ ÀOOHGZLWKZDWHUXQWLOLWVORZHUPRVW UHJLRQVWKHUHZDWHUEULQHVDWX UDWLRQGHÀQHVWKHWRSRIWKHSKUHDWLF ]RQH DQG WKH SRVLWLRQ RI WKH ZDWHU WDEOH)LJXUHD :DWHUÀOPDQG JDVSKDVHVFRH[LVWLQWKHLQWHUVWLWLDO SRUHVSDFHRIPXFKRIWKHFDSLOODU\ ]RQH 7KH UHODWLYH KXPLGLW\ RI WKH JDVSKDVHVDWXUDWHGYDSRXUSUHVVXUH LVKRZHYHUHTXDOWRWKHWKHUPRG\ QDPLF DFWLYLW\ RI ZDWHU DQG VR QR HYDSRUDWLYHFRQFHQWUDWLRQFDQRFFXU LQWKHFDSLOODU\]RQHXQOHVVLWLVYHU\ FORVHWRWKHODQGVXUIDFH/RVVRISRUH ZDWHUIURPWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJHLQD PXGÁDW W\SLFDOO\ RQO\ RFFXUV LQ LWV XSSHUPRVWIHZFHQWLPHWUHV
WKHUPRFOLQH
%
ODNHVDQGVHDZD\V
'HSWK
7KHUHDUHVRPHVLPSOHSULQFLSOHVRI VRLOSK\VLFVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKFDSLOODU\ SHODJLFFXPXODWHV IULQJHV LQ JURXQGZDWHU GLVFKDUJH 0HURPLFWLFRU KHOLRWKHUPDO 2OLJRPLFWLF ]RQHV VDENKDV WKDW DW WLPHV KDYH EHHQ LJQRUHG LQ VHGLPHQWRORJLFDO ?b`nk^+',0'Ar]kheh`b\Ze\eZllbÛ\ZmbhgbglZebg^l^mmbg`l':"Ar]kheh`b\ZeshgZmbhgbg PRGHOVRIVDENKDGHSRVLWLRQ)LUVWLI ma^fn]ÜZmZg]bmleZg]pZk]lnkkhng]l';"PZm^kfZllshgZmbhgbgZi^k^ggbZe[kbg^ WKHFDSLOODU\IULQJHLVUHODWLYHO\WKLFN eZd^hkl^ZpZr' VD\PWKHQKRVWVHGLPHQWV PXVWE\GHÀQLWLRQ KDYHVPDOOSRUH 7KH SURFHVV RI ÁXVKLQJ VXUIDFH ZDWHUV WR WKH SKUHDWLF ]RQH LV NQRZQ DV LQÀOWUDWLRQ ,Q D KRPRJHQHRXV PHGLXP LW UH WKURDWV DQG VR PXVW KDYH ORZ SHUPHDELOLWLHV$ VDENKD E\ TXLUHVWKHZKROHYDGRVHSURÀOHWREHZDWHUVDWXUDWHG,QDQ GHÀQLWLRQLVD]RQHFKDUDFWHULVHGE\WKHJURZWKRIGLVSODFLYH LQKRPRJHQHRXVPHGLXPVXFKDVDNDUVWLFRUDIUDFWXUHGDQG DQG UHSODFLYH FDSLOODU\ VDOWV 6DOLQLW\ RI SRUH ZDWHU LQ WKLV ÀVVXUHGHYDSRULWLFODQGVFDSHUHSOHQLVKPHQWWRWKHZDWHUWDEOH FDSLOODU\IULQJHLVHOHYDWHGLQGLFDWHGE\WKHSUHVHUYDWLRQRI FDQEHPRUHIRFXVHG2QFHWKHPRUHVROXEOHLRQVDUHEDFNLQ J\SVXPDQK\GULWHKDOLWHHWF 7KLVORZSHUPHDELOLW\PHDQV WKHSKUHDWLFPDVVWKH\FRQWLQXHWRÁRZDVGLVVROYHGORDGGRZQ WKDWKLJKUDWHVRIWUDQVLHQWVKRUWWHUPUDSLGODWHUDORUYHUWLFDO WKHSRWHQWLRPHWULFJUDGLHQWDQGXOWLPDWHO\LQWRWKHGLVFKDUJH ÁRZWKURXJKDVDENKDFDSLOODU\IULQJHLVLPSRVVLEOH:KHQD GHSUHVVLRQ ZKHUH GULYHQ E\ VRODU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ HPHUJLQJ VKHHWÁRRGFRYHUVWKHPWKLFNVDOLQHFDSLOODU\IULQJH ZDWHUVRQFHDJDLQFDQSUHFLSLWDWHVDOWVLQVDENKDVSDQVEULQH RIDVDENKDZLWKDVKHHWRIIUHVKHUVXUIDFHZDWHUUDLQZDWHURU K\SHUVDOLQH
%5,1((92/87,21
VHDZDWHU WKLVZDWHUGRHVQRWEHJLQWRLQÀOWUDWHXQWLOLWVGHQVLW\ H[FHHGVWKDWRIZDWHULQWKHXQGHUO\LQJFDSLOODU\SRUHV7KHQ HYHQZKHQGHQVLWLHVGRH[FHHGWKDWRIWKHXQGHUO\LQJZDWHUV WKHORZSHUPHDELOLW\RIWKHQDUURZSRUHWKURDWVPHDQVWKHUDWH RIUHFKDUJHLVVORZ 7RDFFXPXODWHVDOWVLQWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJHWKHRYHUDOOVROXWH FDUU\LQJ ZDWHU ÁRZ YHFWRU RYHU WLPH PXVW EH XSZDUG QRW GRZQZDUG,WDOVRPHDQVWKDWDOPRVWDOORIWKHZDWHULQRF FDVLRQDOIUHVKHUZDWHUVKHHWVFRYHULQJDVDENKDDUHORVWWRWKH DWPRVSKHUH/RZSHUPHDELOLWLHVPHDQDVDENKDLVQRWFDSDEOHRI PDLQWDLQLQJORQJWHUPGRZQZDUGUHÁX[ÁRZRIZDWHURUVROXWH WRWKHSKUHDWLFPDVV7KLVLVWUXHLQDOOHYDSRULWLFPXGÁDWV7KLV QRWLRQRISHUDVFHQGXPUDWKHUWKDQSHUGHVFHQGXPK\GURORJLHV LV FRUUHFWO\ DFFRPPRGDWHG LQ ZDWHU ÁRZ PRGHOV IRU PRVW FRQWLQHQWDOVDENKDVDQGPXGÁDWV7KLVZDVOHVVVRLQVRPH VHGLPHQWRORJLFDOPRGHOVRIPRGHUQPDULQHPDUJLQVDENKDVRU DWOHDVWWKLVZDVVRXQWLOWKHODVWGHFDGHZKHQGHWDLOHGK\GUR ORJLFDOGDWDVHWVZHUHFROOHFWHGDQGFRDVWDOVDENKDK\GURORJLHV TXDQWLÀHGUDWKHUWKDQDVVXPHG $V:RRGHWDO KDVFOHDUO\VKRZQLQWKH$EX'KDELVDENKD )LJXUHE DQG'XWNLHZLF]HWDO GHPRQVWUDWHGLQ /DNH*UHHQO\PXGÁDWVDQGSDQV)LJXUH VROXWHÁX[LQ WKHFDSLOODU\IULQJHRIVDOLQHPXGÁDWVLVODUJHO\GHFRXSOHGIURP WKHHIIHFWVRIZDWHUF\FOLQJLQHSKHPHUDOVKHHWVRIVXUIDFHZDWHU DQGWKHLUVDOWFUXVWV0RVWRIWKHVROXWHORDGSUHFLSLWDWHGDVVDOWV LQDVDENKDFRPHVIURPULVLQJVRPHWLPHVGHHSO\FLUFXODWLQJ JURXQGZDWHU,WGRHVQRWFRPHIURPUHFKDUJHE\RFFDVLRQDO VXUIDFHÁRRGVDWRSWKHVDENKD)ORRGVPDULQHRUPHWHRULF LQ DVDENKDWHQGWRGROLWWOHPRUHWKDQUHGLVVROYHDQGUHSUHFLSLWDWH VXUIDFHVDOWFUXVWVDQGÁXVKWKHGLVVROYHGFRQWHQWVWRWKHVHD RUWKHEDVLQSDQ)ORRGVRIVXUIDFHZDWHUVWRDVDENKDÁDWWHQG WRHYDSRUDWHQRWLQÀOWUDWH:HVKDOOUHWXUQWRWKLVGLVFXVVLRQ LQPRUHGHWDLOLQ&KDSWHUIRUQRZZHZLOOMXVWQRWHWKDWDQ\ VHFRQGDU\VDOWVDFWLYHO\DFFXPXODWLQJLQDVDENKDRUHYDSRULWLF PXGÁDWDWGHSWKVRIPRUHWKDQDIHZFHQWLPHWUHVEHORZWKH ODQGVXUIDFHDUHSUHFLSLWDWHGE\SK\VLFDODQGFKHPLFDOFKDQJHV LQDVFHQGLQJQRWGHVFHQGLQJSRUHZDWHUV 4XDQWLÀHGK\GURORJLFDOREVHUYDWLRQVLQWKHFDSLOODU\]RQHRI 2ZHQV/DNHPXGÁDWVE\7\OHUHWDO XQGHUOLQHVRPH RWKHU VLJQLÀFDQW JHQHUDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH K\GURORJ\ RI HYDSRULWLFPXGÁDWV)LJXUH (IIHFWLYHHYDSRUDWLRQUDWHVDUHKLJKHURYHUEULQHSRROV WKDQHYDSRULWLFPXGÁDWVHVSHFLDOO\WKRVHPXGÁDWVFRY HUHGE\DVDOWFUXVW 'HSWKWRWKHZDWHUWDEOHLQDPXGÁDWLVDVLJQLÀFDQWFRQWURO
RQWKHYROXPHRIFDSLOODU\VDOWSUHFLSLWDWHGLQDQHYDSRULWLF PXGÁDWRUVDOLQHSDQ7KDWLVPXFKKLJKHUYROXPHVRIVDOW DFFXPXODWHLQUHJLRQVZKHUHWKHVDOLQHZDWHUWDEOHUHVLGHV FORVHUWRWKHVHGLPHQWVXUIDFHIRUORQJHUSHULRGVRIWLPH %HFDXVHZLQWHUDQGVSULQJZDWHUWDEOHVDUHKLJKHUW\SL FDOO\FRROHUZLWKPRUHSUHFLSLWDWLRQ WKDQVXPPHUZDWHU WDEOHVWKHUDWHRIFDSLOODU\VDOWDFFXPXODWLRQLQVRPHPXGÁDWV FDQEHJUHDWHUWKDQLQWKHKRWWHVWDQGGULHVWSDUWRID\HDU ZKHQZDWHUWDEOHVDUHORZHU 7KHWRSRIWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJHLVWKHODQGVXUIDFHLQWKRVHSDUWV RIDQHYDSRULWLFPXGÁ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ÁRUHVFHQWFUXVWVDW LWVVXUIDFH)LJXUH 7KHXQGHUO\LQJFDSLOODU\ZDWHUVVKRZ XSZDUGLQFUHDVLQJVDOLQLWLHVEXWQHYHUDWWDLQWKHVDOLQLWLHVRI WKLVXSSHUPRVWIHZFHQWLPHWUHVZKHUHVDOWVFDQHYDSRUDWLYHO\ SUHFLSLWDWH)LJXUH $QG \HW IURP WKH GLVSODFLYH HYDSRULWH WH[WXUHV VHHQ LQ WKH FDSLOODU\IULQJHRIPRVWVDENKDVDQGHYDSRULWLFPXGÁDWVLWLV REYLRXVWKDWVDENKDVDOWVGRQRWRQO\SUHFLSLWDWHDVVXUIDFHDQG XSSHUPRVWQHDUVXUIDFHHIÁ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´WUXHµ HYDSRULWHVLQWKDWWKHRYHUDOOSUHFLSLWDWLRQK\GURORJ\LVGULYHQ E\VRODUHYDSRUDWLRQEXWWKHORFDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQPHFKDQLVPLQ
&+$37(5
Wpmvnfusjd!xbufs!dpoufou 1/3
1
1/5
1/7
1/9
1
Cpsjoh!C2
Efqui!)dn*
61 211 261
Wpmvnfusjd!xbufs!dpoufou
311
Dimpsjef!dpodfousbujpo 361 1
1
61-111 211-111 261-111 Dimpsjef!dpodfousbujpo!)nh0lh*
Wpmvnfusjd!xbufs!dpoufou 1/3 1/5 1/7
1
311-111
1/9
Cpsjoh!C3
61 Efqui!)dn*
QLWLRQVDENKDSRUHZDWHUVDUHULVLQJDQG KHDWLQJ5DWKHUWKHSUHFLSLWDWLRQPHFKD QLVPLQ4DKDQVDOWÁDWVLVRQHRIVLQNLQJ DQG FRROLQJ GHQVH EULQHV SUHFLSLWDWLQJ SURJUDGH VDOWV IROORZLQJ DQ HSLVRGH RI KDOLWHNDUVWLÀFDWLRQ)LJXUHF 0RG HUQ FDUQDOOLWH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ LV D SDVVLYH SRUH ÀOOLQJ SURFHVV WKDW WDNHV SODFH SHU GHVFHQGXP EHQHDWK D IUHHVWDQGLQJ DQG FRQFHQWUDWLQJ KRORPLFWLF EULQH VKHHW ZKLFKLVIHHGLQJDGHQVHGHVFHQGLQJEULQH SOXPHEULQHUHÁX[ ,WLVDUHFKDUJHPHFKD QLVPDQGQRWDFDSLOODU\ULVHSURFHVV
211 261
Wpmvnfusjd!xbufs!dpoufou
311
Dimpsjef!dpodfousbujpo 361 1
61-111 211-111 261-111 Dimpsjef!dpodfousbujpo!)nh0lh*
311-111
?b`nk^+',1'F^Zlnk^]fhblmnk^Zg]\aehkb]^ikhÛe^lbgma^oZ]hl^shg^h_mph fhgbmhk^][hk^ahe^lbgma^lZem&\knlm^]\eZr&]hfbgZm^]lZebg^fn]ÜZmlbgHp^gl EZd^%__^\ml h_ ma^ l^ZlhgZe ]^o^ehif^gm h_ a^ebhma^kfb\ lmkZmbÛ\Zmbhg /DNH DUH SUREDEO\ WKH EHVW GRFXPHQWHG bgLheZkEZd^%Fb]]e^>Zlm!Z_m^kH[LY[HISL .`WZ\T
7YLZLU[:[HNL
;PTL
+LWVZP[PVUVMSHTPUH[LKN`WZHYLUP[LZ ^OPJOHYLISV^UPU[VS\UL[[LZHIV\[[OL ZHSPUHLKNL
9LNYV^[OVMN`WZ\TPUJY`Z[HSSVNYHWOPJ JVU[PU\P[`^P[OZ\IZ[YH[LWVPRPSP[PJHSS` LUJHZLZHUKI\YPLZ[OLSH`LYVMHYHNVUP[LWLSVPKZ
-YLZOLUPUNVMIYPULZH[VWYLJLU[S` WYLJPWP[H[LKN`WZ\TJYLH[LZH KPZZVS\[PVUZ\YMHJL^OPJOPZ[OLU JV]LYLKI`HYHNVUP[LWLSVPKZPUUL_[ JVUJLU[YH[PVULWPZVKL
6JLHU >H[LY[HISL /HSVJSPUL 3H[LY:[HNL
.`WZ\T
.`WZ\TNYV^[OPU[LYY\W[LKI`SVZZVMIV[[VT ZH[\YH[PVUK\YPUNMYLZOLUPUN)V[[VT IYPULPZWLYPVKPJHSS`\UKLYZH[\YH[LK
:LSLUP[L [^PUJY`Z[HS
;PTL
6JLHU +LWVZP[PVUHSZ\YMHJLH[VW[OL\W^HYK NYV^PUNN`WZ\TZ\YMHJLW\SZLZNYV^[O ZV[OH[JY`Z[HSZHUKWLSHNPJPTW\YP[PLZ TVZ[S`HYHNVUP[LTPTPJ[OLZ\YMHJL HZZ\JJLZZP]L¸aPNaHN¹SH`LYZ
:LSLUP[L [^PUJY`Z[HS
>H[LY[HISL /HSVJSPUL ,HYS`:[HNL
.`WZ\T
» ;» 5 :( gm^khebmab\Zgar]kbm^bgma^lnikZmb]\Ze lZ[dZapab\ablZeZm^kZe^jnboZe^gmh_`rilnfbg,'/[%ma^lbm^bleh\Zm^]Zkhng]+))fghkmap^lmh_ma^`rilnfbg,'/[' L\Ze^[Zkbl*)\fehg`'
0U[LY[PKHS-HJPLZ3HNVVULKNLT\KZ $ZD\ IURP WKH DFWLYH EHDFK ULGJHV WKH LQWHUWLGDO ]RQH LV GLYLGHG LQWR XSSHU DQG ORZHU LQWHUWLGDO IDFLHV DOWKRXJK WKH ORZHU LQWHUWLGDO IDFLHV RI VRPH ZRUNHUV LV HTXLYDOHQW WR WKH ODJRRQDOWHUUDFHIDFLHVRIRWKHUV7KHFRQIXVLRQVWHPVIURP WKHSUHVHQFHRIDZLGHFHPHQWHGÁDWDORQJWKHPDLQODQGVKRUH RIWKHYDULRXVNKRUVDÁDWWKDWLVFRYHUHGE\ULSSOHGSHORLGDO VDQGVRUPXGG\VDQGVSHORLGDOJUDLQVWRQHVDQGSDFNVWRQHV DQG KRVWV D GHQVH SRSXODWLRQ RI FHULWKLG JDVWURSRGV 6RPH DXWKRUVSODFHWKLVÁDWLQWKHVKDOORZVXEWLGDODVDQH[WHQVLRQ RIWKHODJRRQDOWHUUDFHZKLOHRWKHUVSODFHLWLQWKHORZHUPRVW LQWHUWLGDO7KHODFNRIÀUPGHÀQLWLRQRILWVGLVWULEXWLRQLVGXH WRWKHÁDWVKDOORZQDWXUHRIWKHVRXWKHUQ*XOI7KLVPHDQV PLQRUYDULDWLRQVLQZLQGGLUHFWLRQVSHHGDQGWKHEDURPHWULF
SUHVVXUHFDQFDXVHWKHSUHGLFWHGWLGHVLQWKHNKRUVWRUHPDLQ HLWKHU´RXWµRUWRDGYDQFHVHYHUDONLORPHWUHVIXUWKHU´LQµWKDQ SUHGLFWHG /RQJHU WHUP VHDVRQDO YDULDWLRQV IROORZ D PRUH GHÀQHGLIXQXVXDOSDWWHUQZLWKLQXQGDWLRQRIPDQ\RWKHUZLVH ´VXSUDWLGDOµDUHDVWKDWLVODUJHDUHDVRIVDENKDÁDWQRWRFFXU ULQJXQWLOODWHDXWXPQSRVWHTXLQR[ +HQFHWKHODWHUDOH[WHQW VWUDQG]RQH RIWKHLQWHUWLGDODUHDRIVHGLPHQWDWLRQLQWKH8$( LVODUJHEXWSRRUO\GHÀQHG(YHQWKHWHUPVWLGDOWRGHVFULEH VKHHWVRIODJRRQZDWHUWKDWDWWLPHVFRYHUWKHXSSHUPRVWSDUWV RIWKHVDENKD´LQWHUWLGDOµLVDOLWWOHPLVOHDGLQJDVWKHSURFHVV GULYLQJWKHVKHHWVODQGZDUGLVW\SLFDOO\WKHVKDPDO *HRORJLFDOO\ZKDWGHÀQHVWKHPXGG\LQWHUWLGDOIDFLHVLVHYL GHQFHRIF\DQREDFWHULDODNDDOJDO PDWV0DWVÀUVWRFFXUDV GHJUDGHGF\DQREDFWHULDOSHDWVLQDWUDQVLWLRQDOPZLGH
&+$37(5
.`WZ\TT\ZO 7VS`NVUHSTH[ 4H[KL]LSVWTLU[ 7VVSZ *LYP[OPK NYHaPUN
EHWZHHQ WR ZLWK K\GURJHQ LQGLFHV EHWZHHQ DQG LQ D UDQJH RI W\SH ,,, SURWRNHURJHQV ZLWK D b&3'% UDQJH IURP WRÆVHHLQVHW LQ )LJXUH DQG .HQLJ HW DO
,SL]H[PVUJT
([VTPJ/*
-SVVKPUNMYLX\LUJ`
0RVW RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH RQ WKH VDENKD JLYHV WKH LP SUHVVLRQ WKDW ODPLQDWHG F\DQREDFWHULDO PDW LV WKH ;`WL0 RQO\W\SHRIPDWDFFXPXODW LQJ LQ WKH XSSHU LQWHUWLGDO ;`WL00 ]RQH 7
.>7 :P[L
.>7 >LSSZJVTWSL[LKPU ;LY[PHY`MVYTH[PVUZ
.>7 :P[L .>7 .>7 .>7 ?» .>7
:P[L4L[LVYVSVNPJHSZ[H[PVU
(]LYHNLYH[LH[ZP[L$TTK (]LYHNLYH[LH[ZP[L$TTK :P[L:LW[ :P[L4HYJO :P[L6J[
5VVU
RT
+
) ;PKHS aVUL
97
97
9797 97
(LVSPHU ZHUK
T RT
97
:HIROH
+LW[O[V^H[LYJT
6WLU ^H[LY
>H[LY [HISL ;LY[PHY` -VYTH[PVUZ
;PTLOV\YZ
9HPUMHSS
+LW[O[V^H[LY
?»
?
4PKUPNO[
9HPUTT
*
5
(
:HIROHL]HWVYH[PVUYH[LTTK
&+$37(5
;PTLZPUJL1\S` KH`Z
)LJXUH+\GURORJ\RIWKH$EX'KDELVDENKDIURP6DQIRUGDQG:RRG:RRGDQG6DQIRUG:RRGHWDO:RRGHWDO $ /RFDOL WLHVRIVHOHFWHGPRQLWRULQJZHOOVWUDQVHFWVDQGVLWHV% 0HDVXUHGHYDSRUDWLRQUDWHDWVDENKDVXUIDFHXVLQJDKXPLGLW\FKDPEHU& *HRORJLFDOVHFWLRQ VKRZLQJWKLFNQHVVDQGSLH]RPHWHUQHVWVDORQJWUDQVHFW;; ' *URXQGZDWHUOHYHODQGUDLQIDOORYHUD\HDUEHJLQQLQJ-XO\ DWVLWHLQ6DENKD0DWWL
3RWHQWLDO SDQPHDVXUHG HYDSRUDWLRQ UDWHV RI IUHVK VXUIDFH ZDWHURQWKHVDENKDDUH§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ÀFLW RI § P\HDU 3XW VLPSO\ WKH VDENKD LV WDNLQJ XS 7HUWLDU\ JURXQGZDWHUVOLNHDVSRQJH 7KHKXPLGLW\FKDPEHUPHDVXUHPHQWVDOVRVKRZHGWKDWZD WHU ÁX[ GXULQJ WKH QLJKW FDQ EH UHYHUVHG DW WLPHV ZKHQ WKH KXPLGLW\LQWKHDLUDERYHWKHVDENKDH[FHHGVWKHDFWLYLW\RI
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§PG DQGLVUHODWLYHO\XQLIRUPDFURVVWKHVDENKD8VLQJDK\GUDXOLF FRQGXFWLYLW\ RI PG DQG D GHQVLW\FRUUHFWHG SLH]RPHWULF JUDGLHQWRIUHVXOWVLQDODWHUDOÁX[RIEHWZHHQDQG FP\U:RRGHWDO 'LYLGLQJWKHÁX[E\SRURVLW\IURP DQDYHUDJHRIWKHPHDVXUHGSRURVLWLHV JLYHVDVHHSDJH YHORFLW\RIFP\U7KLVUDQJHLQLWVHOIQHJDWHVDQ\QRWLRQ RIODWHUDOPDULQHVHHSDJHIURPWKHODJRRQHYHUEHLQJFDSDEOH RIVXSSO\LQJWKHYROXPHVRIVROXWHQHHGHGWRSUHFLSLWDWHWKH +RORFHQHHYDSRULWHVRIWKHVDENKDFRDVW7KHVHWUDQVPLVVLYLW\ FDOFXODWLRQVVKRZWKDWVROXWHFDUU\LQJZDWHUVLPSO\FDQQRWVHHS LQWRWKHVDENKDIURPLWVVLGHVLQVXIÀFLHQWYROXPHWRH[SODLQWKH
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
'HSWKWR ZDWHUP
&RQGXFWLYLW\ PG
'LVVROYHG VROLGVJO
'HQVLW\ JFF
7HUWLDU\
*:3$
7HUWLDU\
*:3
7HUWLDU\
*:3
7HUWLDU\
*:3$
7HUWLDU\
*:3
7HUWLDU\
*:3$
7HUWLDU\
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
'HSWKP
8QLWZHOO VFUHHQHG
:HOO1DPH *:3$
53
53
53
53
53
53
53
MZ[e^ ,'+' P^ee Bg_hkfZmbhg _khf :[n =aZ[b lZ[daZ !Z_m^k Phh]lZg]LZg_hk]%+))*"'Fbgnllb`glbg ]^imamhpZm^k \henfgbg]b\Zm^pZm^ke^o^eZ[ho^eZg]lnk_Z\^'
YROXPHVRIFDSLOODU\VDOWVQRZLQWKHVDENKD6ROXWHFDUU\LQJ ZDWHUVPXVWEHFRPLQJIURPEHORZ
,QWHUPVRIWKHZDWHUF\FOHQRWWKHVROXWHF\FOH GLUHFWUDLQIDOO RQWRWKHVDENKDDQGVXEVHTXHQWJURXQGZDWHUUHFKDUJHWRWKH XQGHUO\LQJDTXLIHUDFFRXQWVIRURIWKHDQQXDOZDWHULQSXW WR WKH V\VWHP WKH UHPDLQLQJ FRPHV IURP ERWK ODWHUDO DQGDVFHQGLQJVDOLQHJURXQGZDWHUÁRZ:RRGHWDO /HVV WKDQ P\U RI SRUH ZDWHU HQWHUV DQG H[LWV E\ ODWHUDO JURXQGZDWHUÁ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
(
:HIROH .
\SM
PHU
HI
(Y
9LJOHYNL
,]HWVYH[PVU
+\ULZ 3H[LYHS PUMSV^
3H[LYHS V\[MSV^
)
5
<W^HYKSLHRHNL
T
#T
T
5V[[VZJHSL
>H[LY
#T
T
T
RT
T %HWZHHQDQG\HDUVDUHUHTXLUHGIRUDPROHFXOH RIDFRQVHUYDWLYHLHQRQUHDFWLYH VROXWHWRWUDYHUVHWKH NPZLGWKRIWKHVDENKDLQWKHFRQVLGHUHGUHFWLOLQHDUYROXPH )LJXUH ,ILWLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHDYHUDJHUHVLGHQFHWLPH LVRQHKDOIRIWKHWRWDOWLPHUHTXLUHGIRUDFRQVHUYDWLYHVROXWH WRWUDYHUVHWKHIXOOOHQJWKNP RIWKHUHFWLOLQHDUYROXPH E\KRUL]RQWDOÁRZWKHDYHUDJHVWHDG\VWDWHUHVLGHQFHWLPHRI DFRQVHUYDWLYHVROXWHLQWKLVVHGLPHQWYROXPHLV§\U %HFDXVHWKHFDOFXODWHGUHVLGHQFHWLPHLVJUHDWHUWKDQWKHDJH RIWKHVDENKDDTXLIHUV\VWHPLWLVFOHDUWKDWVWHDG\VWDWHIRU WKHVROXWHÁX[KDVQRWEHHQDFKLHYHG&DSLOODU\VDOWVDUHVWLOO DFFXPXODWLQJDFURVVWKHVDENKDDQGLWLVWKLVPHFKDQLVPWKDW LVGULYLQJWKHMDFNXSDQGIRUPDWLRQRI6WRNHVVXUIDFHV
:VS\[LMS\_
RN
RN
RN ?b`nk^,'*+'Ar]kheh`b\Ünq^lbgma^\hZlmZelZ[daZZjnb& _^kh_ma^:[n=aZ[blZ[daZ':"L\a^fZmb\h_ar]kheh`b\ ikh\^ll^lbgma^:[n=aZ[blZ[daZ';"FZ`gbmn]^lh_ma^ oZkbhnlZggnZepZm^kÜnq^lbgZ*fq*)fq*)df\hgmkhe ohenf^!Z_m^kPhh]^mZe'%+))+"'
MZ[e^,','Ar]kh`^h\a^fblmkrh_lhnk\^h_lhenm^lbg:[n=aZ[blZ[daZ4ar]kh`^gZg]hqr`^gblhmhi^lbgLFHP'LneiankbgI=;!Z_m^kPhh]Zg]LZg_hk]% +))+4Phh]%+))."'
2LOILHOGEULQH -DP0J2+ DQG0J2+ @FDQFRQWUROWKHS+:RRG
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
7KLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRILRQLFSURSRUWLRQVDVVXPHVWKDWQRRWKHU SURFHVVVXFKDVEDFWHULRJHQLFVXOSKDWHUHGXFWLRQLVUHPRY LQJVXOSKDWHIURPVROXWLRQ7KHUHJLRQDOJURXQGZDWHUV\VWHP LVR[LGL]LQJZLWKGLVVROYHGR[\JHQYDOXHVEHWZHHQDQG
:\YMHJL[LTWLYH[\YL*
:\IZ\YMHJL[LTWLYH[\YL*
:\SWOH[LPUTLXS
9H[PVVMJVUJLU[YH[PVUPU[OLZHIROHIYPUL [V[OH[PU[OL;LY[PHY`HX\PMLY
HWDO 2EVHUYHGS+ 4N )Y LQ VDENKD EULQHV ZKLFK GHFOLQHV ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ 2 PDJQHVLXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQV *H W/ *S LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKLV K\ 5H SRWKHVLV )LJXUH E 7KHUHODWLYHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI FDOFLXP DQG VXOSKDWH :6 FDQ DOVR EH XVHG WR GHÀQH ) ( 4HNULZP\TTNS WKH VRXUFH RI WKH VROXWHV :VS\[LZ +\GURFKHPLFDO GLYLGHV DV FRQFHSWXDOLVHG E\ +DUGLH T DQG(XJVWHUPHDQWKDW PLQHUDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQLQDUHO T DWLYHO\FORVHGV\VWHPVXFK T :\YMHJL DVWKHVDENKDZLOOFDXVHWKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIRQHHOHPHQW TNYV\UK^H[LY RI D SUHFLSLWDWLQJ PLQHUDO WRDSSURDFK]HURZKLOHWKH RWKHU HOHPHQW RU HOHPHQWV * ;PTLPUOV\YZ1\S` + *HSJP\TPUTLXS ZLOO LQFUHDVH LQ FRQFHQWUD WLRQ )LJXUH 7KH ?b`nk^,'*,'Ar]kh`^h\a^fblmkrh_ihk^pZm^klbgma^:[n=aZ[blZ[daZ!Z_m^kPhh]^mZe'% +))+"':"LZ[LYU5PSLKLS[HJVHZ[4LKP[LYYHULHU,N`W[ ,QWHUGXQDOVDENKDVRIWKH1LOHGHOWDDUHIRUPLQJWRGD\DORQJ WKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQFRDVWQHDU(O+DPPDPDUHJLRQKDOIZD\ EHWZHHQ$OH[DQGULDDQG(O$ODPHLQ)LJXUH%HOODKDQG +DVVRXED 7KHUHWKHFRDVWDO]RQHFRQVLVWVRIQLQHRU PRUH4XDWHUQDU\VKRUHSDUDOOHOFDUERQDWHEHDFKGXQHULGJHV
Bmfyboesjb z!71!ln
Nfejufssbofbo Tfb
hf
sje ubm!
bt
!dp
je Pp
Fm!Bmbnfjo z!71!ln
qf
mp
6HGLPHQWEHKLQGWKHWKLUGULGJHEDFNIURPWKHFRDVWLVYHU\ LQWHUHVWLQJLQWKDWLWFRQWDLQVDODPLQDWHGJ\SVXPÀOOZKLFK LVSRVVLEO\WKHSUHVHUYHGUHPQDQWRID3OHLVWRFHQHVXEDTXHRXV GHSRVLW SHUVREV 7KH EHGV WKHUH DUH H[WHQVLYHO\ TXDUULHG DQGZHOOH[SRVHGEXWDV\HW LWVJHRORJ\LVSRRUO\GRFX PHQWHGDQGLWLVQRWNQRZQ LILWIRUPHGDVDPDULQHIHG VDOLQDRUDVDODFXVWULQHFKRWW ÀOO7KHIDFWWKDWWKLVODPLQDU J\SVXPDOWHUQDWHVZLWKWKLQ OLPHVWRQHOD\HUVSUHVHUYLQJ DUWLFXODWHGVKHOOVRI&DUGLXP VSDUJXHVSHUKDSVIRUDPD ULQHVHHSDJHRULJLQ
b
pof
n mpb po e po sfttj d Tf efq b! li 2!ln bc
ftu
n f!mj
eh
js!sj
f
pq
!tm
tj
sft
fq tu!e
!T Bcv
7KHÀUVWVDENKDGHSUHVVLRQLVVLWXDWHGLPPHGLDWHO\EHKLQGWKH ´FRDVWDOULGJHµRIRROLWLFVDQGDQGLVPRUHWKDQNPORQJDQG DIHZKXQGUHGPHWUHVZLGH)LJXUH$OLDQG:HVW :HVW HW DO 'LVSODFLYH QRGXODU J\SVXP ZLWK PLQRU SDO\JRUVNLWHDWWDSXOJLWH LVJURZLQJLQWKHFDSLOODU\]RQHRI WKHFDUERQDWHULFKGHVHUWORHVVWKDWKDVÀOOHGWKLVPRVWVHDZDUG LQWHUGXQDOGHSUHVVLRQ/DQGZDUGDQGWRWKHVRXWKEH\RQGWKH $EX6LUOLPHVWRQHULGJH3OHLVWRFHQH WKHUHDUHRWKHULQWHUGXQDO VDENKDV IRUPLQJ DERXW DQG ZLWKLQ YDULRXV KDOLWHHQFUXVWHG F\DQREDFWHULDOPDWIULQJHGODNHV
cli
tb po!
Gjs
tmp bn!
$OOWKHULGJHVDUHFHPHQWHGZLWKDKDUGFDOLFKHFDSH[FHSW WKHPRVWUHFHQWGXQHNQRZQDVWKH´FRDVWDOULGJHµ/DJRRQDO DQG GHVHUW ORHVV VHGLPHQWV ÀOO ODUJH VZDWKV RI WKH HORQJDWH GHSUHVVLRQVEHWZHHQWKHULGJHVDQGDFWDVKRVWPDWULFHVWRWKH VDENKDSUHFLSLWDWHV
t
?b`nk^,'++'>`rimbZg\hZlm\^gmk^]hgma^Gbe^=^emZ'Bgm^k]ngZe\hZlmZelZ[daZlh\\nkhg ma^^Zlm^kg^g]h_ma^o^`^mZm^]Gbe^\hg^!k^\mZg`neZkbgl^m%pabe^LZ[daZmRZmaZeRZfh\\nk hgma^lhnma^kglb]^h_;Zk]ZpbeEZ`hhg[^rhg]ma^^Zlm^kg^g]h_ma^Gbe^]^emZ!EZg]lZm bfZ`^\hnkm^lrh_G:L:%lnk_Z\^`^heh`rZ_m^kP^lm^mZe'%*202"'
$OO WKH VDENKDV LQ WKH LQ WHUULGJH GHSUHVVLRQV DUH FKDUDFWHULVHGE\J\SVLIHURXV FDSLOODU\ ]RQH XQLWV XS WR FP WKLFN PDGH XS RI D FRPELQDWLRQRIOHQWLFXODUWR SULVPDWLF J\SVXP FU\VWDOV DQGVPDOOVSKHULFDOWRHOOLSWL FDOQRGXOHVWRFPZLGH FRPSRVHGRIVLOWVL]HGJ\S VXP7KHUHLV QR DQK\GULWH JURZLQJ LQ WKH FDSLOODU\ IULQJH 0DWUL[ VHGLPHQW LV DPRVWO\EURZQODPLQDWHG YHU\ÀQHTXDUW]RVHVLOWDQG FDUERQDWHVDQG,WZDVGHSRV
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
1RRI VDPSOHV
1D
.
0J
&D
&O
62
+&2
6U
6DOLQLW\
=RQH9
WUDFH
Æ
=RQH,9
WUDFH
Æ
=RQH,,,
WUDFH
Æ
=RQH,,
WUDFH
Æ
6HDZDWHU
Æ
7DEOH$YHUDJHFRPSRVLWLRQVRILQWHUVWLWLDOZDWHUVVTXHH]HGIURPHYDSRULWLFVHGLPHQWVLQWKHILUVWLQWHUGXQDOFRUULGRU$EX6LUVDENKD1LOHFRDVW %LFDUERQDWHZDVEHORZWKHGHWHFWDEOHOLPLWLQDOOVDPSOHVDIWHU$OLDQG:HVW
JHWPSSHY`TV]LTLU[
+LW[OT
ZHSPUL «Ê
LWHGDVGHVHUWORHVVDQGLVRFFDVLRQDOO\UHZRUNHGE\VKHHWÁRRGV DUHDVZLWKFDOLFKH6DOLQLWLHVRISKUHDWLFJURXQGZDWHUVLQ=RQH VKHGIURPWKHDGMDFHQWULGJHV1RGXOHVJURZPRVWHIÀFLHQWO\ ,,YDU\IURPÆZLWKDPHDQRIÆ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Æ)LJXUH PDGHRIVPDOOJ\SVXPFU\VWDOVW\SLFDOO\RYHUOLHQRGXOHVFRP 7KHXSSHUPRVWSDUWRIWKHVDENKDLQWHUYDOKDVWKHKLJK SRVHGRIODUJHUFU\VWDOV7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFU\VWDOVL]H HVWVDOLQLW\SRUHZDWHUVDYHUDJLQJÆDVDOLQLW\YDOXHWKDW DQGGLVWDQFHIURPWKHVDENKDVXUIDFHVKRZVWKDWQRGXOHVDUH LVÀYHWLPHVWKDWRI]RQH,,1DDQG&OPDLQWDLQWKHLUUHODWLYH SUHFLSLWDWLQJLQWKHDFWLYHFDSLO ODU\ ]RQH DQG GR QRW IRUP E\ 0U[LYWYL[H[PVU UHSODFHPHQW RI DQ DQK\GULWH =L[YPJHS:LJ[PVU :HIROHaVULZ >H[LYMSV^ ZHSPUP[` *S *H T4N PKLHSPaLK
WYVJLZZLZ T*H SUHFXUVRU$VFDSLOODU\J\SVXP Ê NS NS L]HWVYH[PVU FU\VWDOV FRQWLQXH WR JURZ WKH .`WOHSP[LJY\Z[ =OHSP[L QRGXOHH[SDQGVE\SXVKLQJDVLGH .YL`IYV^USVLZZ WYLJPWP[H[PVU HSP[[SLOHSP[LHUK PUZ\WYH[PKHS DQGGHIRUPLQJDGMDFHQWVHGLPHQW N`WZ\T ZHUK ODPLQDH7KHÀQHJUDLQHGQDWXUH :THSSJY`Z[HS^OP[L 0=N`WZ\T N`WZ\TUVK\SLZ WYLJPWP[H[PVU RIWKHKRVWLQJORHVVHQFRXUDJHV HZUVK\SLZ 3HYNLJY`Z[HS GLVSODFLYH JURZWK UDWKHU WKDQ 000 N`WZ\TUVK\SLZ LUSHYNLTLU[ SDVVLYHLQWHUSDUWLFOHSRLNLORWRSLF HUKIHUKZPU VMN`WZ\T SHTPUH[LKIYV^U JURZWK 0LQRU DPRXQWV RI JY`Z[HSZI` V_PKPaLK Z`U[H_PHS KLZLY[SVLZZ DXWKLJHQLFFDOFLWHDQGGRORPLWH V]LYNYV^[O ZHIROH ^P[OPU DUHDOVRSUHFLSLWDWHG UVK\SLZ
$PDULQHVHHSDJHRULJLQIRUWKH J\SVXPQRGXOHVZDVLQIHUUHGE\ $OLDQG:HVW EDVHGRQWKH VHDZDWHUOLNHSURSRUWLRQVRIWKH LQWHUVWLWLDO EULQHV DQG SHULRGLF J\SVXPVDWXUDWLRQLQZDWHUVRI ]RQHV,,,DQG,9LQWKHZDWHUVRI WKH ÀUVW LQWHUULGJH GHSUHVVLRQ )LJXUH7DEOH %XWDV ZHVDZLQ&KDSWHUVHDZDWHU OLNHSURSRUWLRQVLQDJURXQGZDWHU GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PHDQ D VHDZDWHU RULJLQ LQ FRQWLQHQWDO
^H[LY[HISL
3PNO[IYV^UKLZLY[ SVLZZZVTL[PTLZ ^P[OSVJHSZTHSS N`WZ\TJY`Z[HSZ O`WLYZHSPULSHNVVU
:OLSS`NYL`NYP[ SHNVVUHS
00KPZZVS\[PVU VMºPU[LY[PKHS» ÊZ\SWOH[L N`WZ\T YPJOO`WLYZHSPUL JY`Z[HSZ[VMVYT HIHYYLUZHUK NYV\UK^H[LY
0THYPUL PUMS\LUJLK ZLKPTLU[H[PVU
?b`nk^,'+,'Bgm^k&kb]`^`rilnflZ[daZlhgma^Gbe^]^emZ%>`rimlahpbg`b]^Zebl^]o^kmb\Ze l^\mbhgmakhn`ama^ÛklmlZ[daZ]^ik^llbhgZg]ma^bgm^kik^m^]\ZibeeZkr&]kbo^gln[lnk_Z\^ ^oZihkZmbhgar]kheh`r_hkfbg`ma^`rilnfgh]ne^lmaZm]^Ûg^ma^lZ[daZl^jn^g\^!Z_m^k P^lm^mZe'%*2024:ebZg]P^lm%*21,"'
&+$37(5
?b`nk^,'+-'Lhnma^kg\hZlmh_;Zk]ZpbeeZ`hhg%ghkma^kgLbgZb%>`rim%lahpl[^Z\a&eZ`hhgZg]bgm^k]ngZelZ[daZlpbmabgma^ \hZlmZeihkmbhgh_ZlZg]l^Z]hfbgZm^][rehg`bmn]bgZe!l^b_"]ng^l'LZ[daZ]^ihlbmbhgpZlZk^lihgl^mhZkbl^bgma^k^`bhgZe pZm^kmZ[e^]kbo^g[rma^^g]&Ie^blmh\^g^kbl^bgl^Ze^o^emhbmlik^l^gmihlbmbhglhf^/dZ!BfZ`^\hnkm^lrh_G:L:"'
SURSRUWLRQVWLHGWREULQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ=RQHV,,WKURXJK9 À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´SHU DVFHQGXPµUDWKHUWKDQD´SHUGHVFHQGXPµPRGHODOWKRXJKDW WKHWLPHWKH\SXEOLVKHGWKHLUZRUNWKHODWWHUZDVWKHSUHYDLOLQJ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQIRUDVDENKDK\GURORJ\ 7KLVVHULHVRI(J\SWLDQFRDVWDOVDENKDVLVRILQWHUHVWDVLWLV DQDFWLYHVDENKDSODLQLQWKHORZÁXYLDOVXSSO\GHVHUWORHVV FRDVWDOSRUWLRQRIWKHSURJUDGLQJ1LOHGHOWD,WDOVRVKRZVWKDW H[WUHPHO\DULGFRQGLWLRQVDUHQRWDUHTXLUHPHQWIRUHYDSRULWH QRGXOHJURZWKLWRQO\QHHGVWKHDSSURSULDWHVHHSDJHK\GURORJ\ ZKHUHWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJHLQWHUVHFWVWKHODQGVXUIDFH7KHVH VDENKDVDUHDFWLYHO\DFFXPXODWLQJJ\SVXPLQDUHJLRQZKHUH DQQXDOUDLQIDOOLV§FP2QFHDJDLQOLNHWKH$W7DIVDENKD LWGHPRQVWUDWHVWKHODFNRISUHVHUYDWLRQSRWHQWLDORIDQ\VDOWV SUHFLSLWDWHGLQWKHVHHSDJHK\GURORJ\RIDOOPRGHUQFRDVWDO VDENKDV 2QFH WKH J\SVXP QRGXOHV DUH EXULHG LQWR =RQH ,, WKH\DUHVHHQWRGLVVROYHLQULVLQJSKUHDWLFEULQHVZKLFKDUH XQGHUVDWXUDWHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRJ\SVXP)LJXUH *\SVXP LVEHLQJUHF\FOHGWKURXJKWKHXSSHUSDUWVRIDVXEVLGLQJSURÀOH DQGLWVSUHVHUYDWLRQSRWHQWLDOLVORZLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKLVDUH GLVFXVVHGIXUWKHUODWHULQWKLVFKDSWHU
,HZ[LYU4LKP[LYYHULHU*VHZ[VM[OL5PSL+LS[HHUK 5VY[OLYU:PUHP 2QWKHRWKHUVLGHRIWKH1LOHGHOWDWKHQRUWKHUQ6LQDLFRDVW LVERUGHUHGIRUDERXWWZRWKLUGVRILWVOHQJWKE\WKH%DUGDZLO /DJRRQ )LJXUHV /HY\ D E ,W LV D EURDGPDULQHODJRRQZLWKVPDOOHUHYDSRULWLFVDENKDODJRRQV LQLQWHUGXQDOGHSUHVVLRQVDORQJLWVVRXWKHUQFRDVWDOLQWHUIDFH 7KHVRXWKHUQSDUWRIWKH%DUGDZLODOVRGHÀQHVWKHFRDVWDOGHVHUW HGJHRIDQH[WHQVLYHVDQGVHDRUHUJGRPLQDWHGE\ORQJLWXGLQDO RUVHLIGXQHV5HJLRQDOFOLPDWHLVDULGHYDSRUDWLRQUDWHVDUH KLJK§P\U DQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQLVORZ§PP\U 0DULQH LQÁXHQFHGVDENKDVRQWKHVRXWKHUQVLGHRIWKHODJRRQRFFXU ZKHUHYHU WKH FDSLOODU\ IULQJH LQWHUVHFWV WKH ODQGVXUIDFH DQG DUHRIWZRW\SHV FRDVWDOVDENKDVDOVRFDOOHGODJRRQEHDFK VDENKDVVHH:DUUHQ ZKLFKDUHDWSUHVHQWFRQQHFWHGWR WKHODJRRQDQGÁRRGHGRFFDVLRQDOO\E\VHDZDWHUH[DPSOHV LQFOXGHWKHLQQHUODJRRQVDQG1DKDOohenmbhgh_Z]^ihlbmbhgZe\r\e^bgZlZebg^iZgl^mmbg`!Z_m^kEhp^glm^bgZg]AZk]b^%*21."'
VLWXDWHGLQWKHORZHVWSDUWVRIWKHSOD\DVXUIDFH$SDQLVW\SL FDOO\VXUURXQGHGE\DVDOLQHPXGÁDWDQGLVIUHTXHQWO\XQGHUODLQ E\ROGHUEHGGHGRUOD\HUHGVDOWXQLWV)LJXUHVG ,Q /DNH0DJDGLIRUH[DPSOHWKHSDQLVGHÀQHGE\DWURQDEHG PWKLFNZKLOHLQ%ULVWRO'U\ODNHWKHVDOLQHSDQIDFLHVFDQ EHIRXQGLQWHUFDODWHGZLWKVDOLQHPXGÁDWIDFLHVWKURXJKRXWWKH PHWUHVRIFRUHUHFRYHUHGIURPWKHEDVLQFHQWUH 3DQV UDQJH LQ VL]H IURP VPDOO IHDWXUHV D IHZ NP DFURVV WR JLJDQWLFFRQWLQHQWDOVDOWVLQNVDVLQ6DODUGL8\XQLZKHUHWKH SDQDUHDLVPRUHWKDQNP5HWWLJHWDO 7H[WXUHV LQ WKH VWDFNHG VDOW OD\HUV DUH D FRPELQDWLRQ RI VXEDTXHRXV DOLJQHGIHDWXUHVHJFKHYURQVDQGVZDOORZWDLOV DQGH[SRVXUH RYHUSULQWVHJPLFURNDUVWSLWVVXEKRUL]RQWDOHURVLRQDOEHYHOV DQGVDOWÀOOHGSRO\JRQV WKDWIRUPHGHDFKWLPHSDQGULHGDQG LWVVXUIDFHZDVH[SRVHG)LJXUHH 6WDFNHGFUXVWVDUHXVX DOO\GRPLQDWHGE\KDOLWHEXWRWKHUPLQHUDOVVXFKDVJ\SVXP PLUDELOLWHDQGWURQDFDQEHLPSRUWDQW :KHQWKHSDQGULHVHROLDQGXVWLVWUDSSHGE\FDSLOODU\DGKH VLRQ RQ LWV PRLVW URXJK VXUIDFH RU ÀOWHUV GRZQ FUDFNV DQG ÀVVXUHVLQWKHVDOWFUXVW6WRUPZDWHUVFRYHUWKHSDQDIWHUWKH QH[WODNHÁRRGDQGWKHXSSHUSDUWRIWKHVDOWFUXVWGLVVROYHV ZKLOHÁRFFXODWLQJPXGVVHWWOHRQWRWKHVROXWLRQVXUIDFHDQG VLQNLQWRLQWHUFU\VWDOOLQHNDUVWFDYLWLHV)LJXUH6WDJH, 6KHDUPDQ 2QJRLQJ HYDSRUDWLRQ WKHQ FUHDWHV D QHZ VXEDTXHRXVVDOWFUXVWDWRSWKHGLVVROXWLRQVXUIDFH7KHNQREEO\ VXUIDFHVHHQRQVRPHSOD\DVDOWFUXVWVLVWKHUHVXOWRIFRQWLQXDO SUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGIUHWWLQJRIDVXEDHULDOVDOWOD\HUIHGEULQHE\ ´FDSLOODU\ZLFNLQJµ 7KHKDOLWHLQWKHLQLWLDOFUXVWLVRIWHQFRPSRVHGRIXSZDUGSRLQW LQJVXEDTXHRXVKDOLWHFKHYURQV)LJXUH6WDJH,, 7KH IUHVKHQLQJHSLVRGHVSODQHRIIWKHXSSHUSDUWRIWKHFKHYURQVDV XQGHUVDWXUDWHGZDWHUVHDWLQWRWKHFUXVWDORQJWKHLQWHUFKHYURQ ERXQGDULHVDQGIRUPEULQHÀOOHGSRUHV&KDSWHU &DSLOODU\ HYDSRUDWLRQDQGEULQHUHÁX[WKHQÀOOVWKHSRURVLW\ZLWKFOHDU KDOLWHFHPHQW&RQWLQXHGGLVVROXWLRQDQGUHSUHFLSLWDWLRQRIKDOLWH DQGRWKHUVROXEOHVDOWVLQWKHYDGRVHDQGFDSLOODU\SRUWLRQVRI WKHFUXVWFDQGHVWUR\PXFKRIWKHLQLWLDODOLJQHGFKHYURQWH[WXUH 7KHHQGUHVXOWRIDOWHUQDWLQJIUHVKHQLQJDQGGU\LQJHSLVRGHV LVDEHGGHGVWDFNRIVDOWFUXVWVZLWKSRUHVÀOOHGE\KDOLWHVSDU RFFDVLRQDO UHOLFW ]RQHV RI DOLJQHG FKHYURQV DQG QXPHURXV LQWHUQDOWUXQFDWLRQVXUIDFHV)LJXUH6WDJH,,, $WWKHEURDGHUVFDOHWKHFRQWLQXDODGGLWLRQRIQHZVDOWFU\VWDOV IURPHYDSRUDWLQJSRUHZDWHUVFDXVHVDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHYROXPH RIWKHVXUIDFHFUXVWZKLFKRQFHWKHSDQGHVLFFDWHVOLHVDWWKH WRS RI WKH FDSLOODU\ ]RQH 7KLFNQHVV RI WKH FDSLOODU\ IULQJH
&+$37(5
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ÀOO RI QHZO\ IRUPHG ÀVVXUHV :LQGEORZQ GHWULWDO VHGLPHQW ÀOOV ÀVVXUHV ZLWKVXFFHVVLYHOLQLQJV 2QJRLQJFDSLOODU\SUHFLSLWDWLRQPHDQVSUHVVXUHULGJHVUDUHO\ UHWDLQWKHVLPSOHLQYHUWHG9FURVVVHFWLRQRIWKHLQÀOOIRUPHG LQWKHLQLWLDOEUHDNLQWKHVDOWFUXVW2QJRLQJVDOWJURZWKÀV VXULQJDQGGLVVROXWLRQDORQJZLWKLQÀOWUDWLRQRIHROLDQVLOWDQG VDQGLQWRFUDFNVDQGÀVVXUHVGHIRUPVDQGDQQHDOVWKHFUXVW LQWRDYDULHW\RINQREVULGJHVDQGSLQQDFOHVZLWKDUHOLHIRI XSWRDPHWUHDERYHWKHDGMDFHQWPXGÁDWÁRRU)LJXUHH 8QGHUO\LQJFOD\VRIWHQKHDYHXSDQGRXWWKURXJKWKHD[LVRI WKHPHJDSRO\JRQVXWXUH$QFLHQWFRXQWHUSDUWVWRVDOWKRVWHG SUHVVXUHULGJHVDQGPHJDSRO\JRQVKDYHEHHQUHFRJQLVHGLQWKH 0HVVLQLDQVDOWVRI6LFLO\/XJOLHWDO DQGWKH7ULDVVLF VDOWVRI&KHVKLUH8.7XFNHU ZKHUHWKH\DUHXVHGDV LQGLFDWRUVRIWLPHVRIH[SRVXUHLQWKLFNKDOLWHVHTXHQFHV)LV VXUHÀOOVLQWKHVHDQFLHQWFRXQWHUSDUWVFDQFXWXSWRPHWUHV YHUWLFDOO\DFURVVVWDFNHGKDOLWHEHGV (DFKVDOWOD\HULQDWKLFNVDOWSDQXQLWLVLQODUJHSDUWGHULYHG IURPWKHUHF\FOLQJRIROGHUVDOWOD\HUV/D\HUVDUHVHSDUDWHG DQGFURVVFXWE\PXGSDUWLQJVFRPSRVHGRIGHWULWDOPDWHULDO FDUULHG LQ E\ ÁRRGZDWHUV RU HROLDQ GHWULWXV EORZLQJ DFURVV WKHHPHUJHQWVDOWVXUIDFH7KHÀQDOEXULHGVHGLPHQWLVDWKLFN EHGGHGVDOW FRPSRVHG RI UDQGRPO\ DOLJQHG UHFU\VWDOOLVHG HYDSRULWHV6DOLQHSDQVIRUPUHODWLYHO\SXUHVDOWXQLWVZKLFK DUHPHWUHVWKLFNOD\HUHGDQGFURVVFXWE\ÀVVXUHVÀ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
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
:[`SLZVMJVU[PULU[HSZHIROHZ 0XGÁDWVVDENKDVDQGVDOLQHSDQVRFFXUDVSDUWVRIWKUHHVDOLQH ODFXVWULQHVHWWLQJV+DUGLHHWDO $OOXYLDOIDQ²HSKHPHUDOVDOLQHODNH (SKHPHUDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQGXQHÀHOG²HSKHPHUDO VDOLQHODNH 3HUHQQLDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQ²SHUHQQLDOVDOLQHODNH 6HWWLQJV DUH QRW VWDWLF DQG FKDQJHV LQ WHFWRQLFV RU FOLPDWH FDQFDXVHRQHVHWWLQJWRHYROYHLQWRDQRWKHU7H[WXUHRIWKH FDSLOODU\SUHFLSLWDWHVDUHVLPLODULQDOOWKUHHEXWGLIIHUHQFHV LQODFXVWULQHK\GURORJ\PHDQVFRQWLQHQWDOVDENKDVDUHPRUH ZLGHVSUHDGLQHSKHPHUDOODNHV\VWHPVWKDQLQSHUHQQLDOODNH V\VWHPVZKLFKVHHPWRUHTXLUHVWHHSHU VLGHGEDVLQV7DEOH
(SS\]PHSMHU¶LWOLTLYHSZHSPUL SHRL 7KHDOOXYLDOIDQ²HSKHPHUDOVDOLQHODNH GHSRVLWLRQDO FRPSOH[ W\SLILHV IDXOW ERXQGHGRURJHQLFEDVLQVLQWHFWRQLFDOO\ DFWLYH DULG DUHDV 7HFWRQLVP JHQHUDWHV WRSRJUDSK\ DQG LQFUHDVHG FRQWUDVW LQ WKHUPDOJUDGLHQWVVRWKDWZDWHUYROXPHV VHHSLQJ LQWR WKH HYDSRULWLF PXGIODW FRQWLQHQWDO VDENKD DQG DGMDFHQW SDQ FDQ EH TXLWH KLJK IHG SUHGRPLQDQWO\ IURPJURXQGZDWHUDQGRFFDVLRQDOVWRUP UXQRII6XFKDULGLQWHUPRQWDQHORZVFDQ EH FRYHUHG E\ H[WHQVLYH FRQWLQHQWDO VDENKDVZLWKDUHDVRIVDOLQHSDQVLQWKH ORZHUPRVWSRVLWLRQVRQWKHSOD\DÁRRU )LJXUH 0RGHUQH[DPSOHVUDQJH DFURVVYDULRXVWHFWRQLFVHWWLQJVDQGLQ FOXGHLQWHUPRQWDQHSOD\DVLQWKH%DVLQ DQG5DQJHRI1RUWK$PHULFDVDODUVRI WKH&HQWUDO$QGHVVRPH(DVW$IULFDQULIW YDOOH\VVDOLQHYDOOH\VDWWKHVRXWKHUQHQG RIWKH'HDG6HDWUDQVIRUPDQGSOD\DV RQWKH7LEHWDQ3ODWHDXDQG0RQJROLD2I WKHWZRHSKHPHUDOODNHVHWWLQJVLWLVWKH RQHZKHUHWKLFNVHTXHQFHVRIHYDSRULWLF VDOWVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WREHSUHVHUYHGGXH WRUDSLGVXEVLGHQFH$QFLHQWFRXQWHUSDUWV RIWKLVVW\OHRIGHSRVLWLQFOXGHWKHVDOLQH PXGÁDW DQG SDQ IDFLHV LQ WKH :LONLQV 3HDN0HPEHURIWKH(RFHQH*UHHQ5LYHU
)RUPDWLRQ8WDKWKH7HUWLDU\ERUDWHGHSRVLWVRI7XUNH\DQG &DPEULDQ/DNH3DUDNHHO\DRIWKH2IÀFHU%DVLQ6RXWK$XVWUDOLD )LVFKHUDQG5REHUWV+HOYDFL6RXWKJDWHHWDO /HWXVQRZORRNLQPRUHGHWDLODWWKHJHRORJ\RIIHZ 4XDWHUQDU\H[DPSOHV
:HIROH@V[]H[H0ZYHLS 6DENKD > HYROXWLRQ DV F\DQREDFWHULDO ZS :HU (YPaHYV OLPHVWRQHVRVWUDFRGHFDUDSDFHV RT (U[VUPV +PZ[HUJLMYVT[OLZLH DQG LQRUJDQLF SUHFLSLWDWHV KLSVZ *VIYLZ PRVWO\WUDYHUWLQHV5LVDFKHUHW 7HZ[VZ 0U[YHJYH[VUPJ .YHUKLZ DO %RURQSUHFLSLWDWHVDV IHZPUZ /VTIYL T 4\LY[V XOH[LWHVHH&KDSWHU ZKLOH (U[VMHSSH 6L2LVUHPRYHGE\LQFRUSRUD : WLRQLQWRZLGHVSUHDGGLDWRPWHVWV : (YNLU[PUH ZS LQ WKH IUHVKHU ZDWHU ODNHV DQG RT VSULQJ SRROV 7KH SURSRUWLRQV > > +PZ[HUJLMYVT[OLZLH RI/L.DQG0JWHQGWRUHPDLQ ?b`nk^,',1':">oZihkbm^[^emZg]iarlbh`kZiar%:g]^l%Lhnma:f^kb\Z':"@^g^kZebs^] FRQVWDQWLQDVLQJOHODNHEDVLQ eZmbmn]bgZe]blmkb[nmbhgh_Iebh\^g^&Fbh\^g^^oZihkbm^[^eml!Z_m^k:ehglh^mZe'%*22)"';" Iarlbh`kZiab\ikhÛe^lZmoZkbhnllhnma^kgeZmbmn]^lZ\khllma^:g]^l!Z_m^kKblZ\a^k^mZe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ÁDWV SHUKDSV UHÁHFWLQJ KLJKHU UHOLHI DQG ORZHUSHUPHDELOLW\VXEVWUDWHVLQWKLVUHJLRQFUHDW $WDFDPD 8\XQL +RPEUH 'HO (PSH[D $VFRWDQ 0XHUWR 5LQFRQ LQJPRUHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUÁRRGLQJIROORZHGE\ &O H[WHQGHGWLPHVRIEULQHSRQGLQJ
(
;YH]LY[PUL
.`WZ\T[YH]LY[PUL IVYH[L
)VSP]H
)
&GPZlp^eeZlhma^k_ZnemlZg]ebg^Zf^gmlbgZg]Zkhng]ma^lZeZk!EZg]lZmbfZ`^ E\ RSHQ IUDFWXUH QHWZRUNV \hnkm^lrG:L:"' RXWOLQHWHFWRQLF]RQHVLQWKH DQGGULHGWRZKHUHLWEHFDPHDVDODUÀOOLQJZLWKDQK\GULWHDQG VXUURXQGLQJDQGXQGHUO\LQJ KDOLWH'XULQJWKLVVWDJH/DWH0LRFHQH3OLRFHQH WKHHYROYHG EHGURFN7KHDSSHDUDQFHRIWKHIDXOWWUDFHDWWKHVXUIDFHRI EULQHVRIWKH/ODPDUD4XLOODJXDDUHDVHHSHGHDVWZDUGVDORQJ 6DODU*UDQGHLVLQPDUNHGFRQWUDVWWR6DODUGH$WDFDPDZKLFK VWUXFWXUDOSDWKVIUDFWXUHGEHGURFN" WRUHDFKWKH6DODU*UDQGH ODFNVDQ\H[SUHVVLRQRILWVDFWLYHIDXOWLQJDWWKHVXUIDFH7KDW EDVLQZKLFKDFWHGDVWKHLUÀQDOVLQN3URRIRIWKLVFRQQHFWLRQLV WKHUHJLRQDOIDXOWLQWHUVHFWVWKHVXUIDFHRI6DODU*UDQGHDQG WKHDQK\GULWHVHOHQLWHEHGWKDWRYHUOLHVWKHKDOLWHLQERWKODNHV QRWWKHVXUIDFHRI6DODUGH$WDFDPDVKRZVWKDWWKHKDOLWHDF DQGOLQNVWKHZHVWHUQ/ODPDUDWRWKHVRXWKHDVWHUQ6DODU*UDQGH FUHWLRQDU\SURFHVVLVWRGD\PXFKOHVVDFWLYHLQ6DODU*UDQGH DUHDVYLDWKH0RQWyQGH*ORULDSDVV'LD]HWDO $FFUHWLRQRIKDOLWHUHTXLUHVDVDOLQHZDWHUWDEOHZLWKLQDIHZ GHFLPHWUHVRIWKHODNHVXUIDFHWKHZDWHUWDEOHRI6DODU*UDQGH 3KUHDWLFEULQHVZHUHVXEVHTXHQWO\ORVWIURPWKHEDVLQLQ3OLRFHQH LVPXFKGHHSHU WLPHVZKHQWKH/RD5LYHUFDQ\RQUHDFKHGWKHVHD7KLVZDVWKH EHJLQQLQJRIWKHFXUUHQWH[RUKHLFK\GURORJ\DQGWKHRSSRVLWH 'ULSSLQJIRJVFDPDQFKDFRV LQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKGHÁDWLRQ RILWVSUHYLRXVHQGRUKHLFK\GURORJ\'UDLQDJHLQWRWKHRFHDQ FDSLOODU\HYDSRUDWLRQDQGUDLQKDYHVFXOSWHGDNQREEO\DQG ZDVUHÁHFWHGLQDIDOORIWKHUHJLRQDOZDWHUWDEOHWKHGU\LQJ SUHVVXUHULGJHGVXUIDFHWRWKHPRGHUQVDOWFUXVWZLWKUHOLHIXS RIWKHVDOWERG\DQGWKHXQGHUO\LQJDOOXYLXPDQGWKHFUHDWLRQ WRFP$WWKHODUJHUVFDOHVRPHSUHVVXUHULGJHVRXWOLQH RIDK\GURORJLFVLWXDWLRQLQ6DODU*UDQGHWKDWVWLOOH[LVWVWRGD\ PHJDSRO\JRQV LQ WKH VDOW ZLWK VDXFHU GLDPHWHUV PHDVXUHG (ULFNVHQ LQ WHQV WR KXQGUHGV RI PHWUHV DV ZHOO DV VPDOOHU SRO\JRQV PHDVXULQJ VHYHUDO PHWUHV EHWZHHQ ULGJHV (ULFNVHQ
&+$37(5
2QJRLQJUHZRUNLQJRIWKHXSSHUERXQGDU\RIWKHPDVVLYHVDOW FUXVWE\IRJPRLVWXUHDQGWKHLQFRUSRUDWLRQRIHROLDQGHWULWDO DQG LQVROXEOH FOD\V WKURXJK WLPH KDV FUHDWHG D GLUW\ EURZQ VDODUFDSSLQJKDOLWHFUXVWXSWRPHWUHWKLFNDWRSWKLFNHU GULHUSXUHUKDOLWH
DFFXPXODWLQJLQWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJHRIDSDQWKDWZDVVXEMHFW WRRQJRLQJGHVLFFDWLRQDQGHYDSRUDWLRQPXFKOLNHWKHPDMRULW\ RIWKHKDOLWHÀOOLQJ6DODUGH$WDFDPD
7KHWUDQVLWLRQEHWZHHQWKH/RZHU%DQGHG+DOLWHDQGWKH8S SHU0DVVLYH+DOLWHWDNHVSODFHRYHUDQLQWHUYDOVHYHUDOPHWUHV 0LQLQJDQGFRULQJLQWKHQRUWKHUQSDUWRI6DODU*UDQGHVKRZVWKH WKLFNZKLFKVKRZVDOWHUQDWLRQVRIERWKXQLWV/RZHUEDQGHG ORZHUPRIWKHVDOWÀOOZDVGHSRVLWHGRQWKHÁ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ÁRRGLQJ 0LQRUWKHQDUGLWH1D62 FU\VWDOVRFFXULQWKH8SSHU0DVVLYH RIWKHEDVLQ7KHRYHUO\LQJ0DVVLYH+DOLWHZDVGHSRVLWHGDV +DOLWHDWOHYHOVDQGLQWKH0LQD/REHUDVSLWZKHUHLWDS GLVSODFLYHRULQWUDVHGLPHQWKDOLWHVWLOOLQDVDOLQHSDQEXWQRZ SHDUVWREHDQHDUO\SHUKDSVV\QGHSRVLWLRQDOFHPHQWEHWZHHQ GLVSODFLYH KDOLWH FU\VWDOV 'LD] HW DO 7KHQDUGLWH ORFDOO\ UHSODFHV WKH KDOLWH EXW W\SLFDOO\ 6111n VKRZV SRLNLORWRSLF WH[WXUHV ZLWK Tbmbs Mmbnbsb.!Rvjmmbhvb wpmdbopft Hsboef cbtjo 4111 VROLGLQFOXVLRQVRIJODXEHULWHFOD\ DQGPLFULWH3RO\KDOLWH&D62 2111 0J62.62+2 LV WKH PRVW DEXQGDQWVXOSKDWHPLQHUDOLQ6DODU Tfb Dpsejmmfsb!ef!mb!Dptub Efqsftj o Qsfdpsejmmfsb!'!Bmujqmbop!)Bmub!Dpsejmmfsb* *UDQGHLWRXWOLQHVJUDLQERXQGD )Dpbtubm!Sbohf* Dfousbm ULHVDQGGLVVROXWLRQVXUIDFHVLQWKH 0DVVLYH+DOLWH
B/
Ibmjuf!dsvtu
Tbmbs!tvsgbdf!)748n!btm*
Mfwfm!1 Mfwfm!2
Vqqfs!nbttjwf!Ibmjuf !!!!Dsztubmt!=5!dn !!!!Dsztubmt!?5!dn
1n
Mpxfs!cboefe!ibmjuf
21
Ibmjuf!lbstu!)tfeu/!gjmmfe* Mfwfm!3
Uifobsejuf.sjdi!mfwfm
31
Mfwfm!4 Mfwfm!5
41 Mfwfm!6
Mpxfs!mfwfm pg!pqfo!qju
51
Mfwfm!7
C/
Hzqtvn!'!mvujuf!cfbsjoh!mfwfmt
?b`nk^ ,'-1' LZeZk @kZg]^' :" L\a^fZmb\ h_ fZbg iarlbh`kZiab\ ln[]boblbhgl Zg] ma^ k^eZmbo^ihlbmbhgh_ma^EeZfZkZ&JnbeeZ`nZ;Zlbg'MhmZel^\mbhge^g`mablZ[hnm*))df' ;"L^\mbhgmakhn`ahi^gibmZmFbgZEh[^kZlbgma^ghkma^kgiZkmh_ma^lZeZklahpbg` lmkZmb`kZiab\ ZkkZg`^f^gm h_ ]b__^k^gm ebmah_Z\b^l ]bl\nll^] bg m^qm' !Z_m^k =bZs ^m Ze'% *2224>kb\dl^g%*22,"'
3RFNHWVRIYHU\FRDUVHO\FU\VWDOOLQH KDOLWH!FPGLDPHWHU RFFXULQ WKH 0DVVLYH +DOLWH DQG LQ SDUWV RIWKHXQGHUO\LQJ%DQGHG+DOLWH 7KH\ VKRZ FHQWULSHWDO RU JHRGH OLNHSDWWHUQVRIKDOLWHJURZWKDQG LQÀOO 7KLV YHU\ FRDUVH KDOLWH LV WKRXJKW WR EH DQ HDUOLHU GLVVROX WLRQ WXEH ÀOO SUHFLSLWDWHG ZKHQ WKH ZDWHU WDEOH ZDV KLJKHU ,W LV DFRPPRQWH[WXUHLQPDQ\RWKHU 6RXWK $PHULFDQ VDODUV ZKHUH LW SUHFLSLWDWHVDVKDOLWHNDUVWÀOOFH PHQWLQWKH2MRGH'LDEOR :RUNRQWKHVHGLPHQWRORJ\RIWKH KDOLWHSDQVLQWKH6RXWK$PHULFDQ VDODUV RYHU WKH ODVW WZR GHFDGHV KDV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ LPSURYHG RXU
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
o
4/'
o
17
'LDPDQWLQD5LYHU
6LPSVRQ'HVHVW .DOODNRRSDK&N
6WXUW 6WRQ\ 'HVHUW
o ´&RRSHU&N )DQµ
Q
&N
0D 5LY FXPE HU D
&N HU RS
/DNH*UHJRU\ *R\GHU&KDQQHO
/DNH %ODQFKH
o
N H&
/DNH(\UH 6RXWK
HOH
FN
L&
N
&R
7LUDUL 'HVHUW
6W U]
1HDOHV 5LYHU
/DNH (\UH 1RUWK
)URP
/DNH &DOODERQQD
/DNH(\UH %DVLQ
6DOW&N
17 6$
4/' 16:
)OLQGHUV5DQJHV
0RVWRIWKHODUJHHSKHPHUDOODNHVLQWKLVVHWWLQJRFFXULQUH JLRQDORXWÁRZ]RQHVRIODUJHDUWHVLDQK\GURORJLHVRUUHJLRQDO DUWHVLDQ VHHSV LQ ORZ UHOLHI WHUUDQHV 7KH ULVH RI OHVV VDOLQH UHVXUJLQJZDWHULQKLELWVGHYHORSPHQWRIDWKLFNEULQHFXUWDLQ RUUHÁX[SOXPHEHQHDWKWKHSDQDQGWKHPXGÁDWDUHTXLUHPHQW IRU ORQJWHUP SUHVHUYDWLRQ RI VDOW EHGV &KDSWHU 6XUIDFH LQÁRZLVDFRPELQDWLRQRIORFDOVWRUPUXQRIIDQGORQJGLVWDQFH HSKHPHUDOÁRRGVZLWKLQWHQVHÁRRGHYHQWVRIWHQVSDFHG\HDUV DSDUW/DNHVHGLPHQWVDUHVXEMHFWWRWKHYDJDULHVRIFOLPDWLF FKDQJHV RXWVLGH WKH LPPHGLDWH YLFLQLW\ RI WKH VDOLQH ODNH 7KHVHODNHVJHQHUDOO\OLHDWWKHHGJHVRIVDQGVHDVRUHUJV7KH\ WHQGWRSUHVHUYHUHODWLYHO\WKLQODFXVWULQHVHGLPHQWSLOHVZLWK QXPHURXV WUXQFDWLRQV WKDW LQGLFDWH RQJRLQJ GHÁDWLRQ :LQG UHZRUNLQJRIYDGRVHODFXVWULQHDQGÁXYLDOVHGLPHQWVXSSOLHV VXEVWDQWLDOYROXPHVRIVHGLPHQWVWRWKHVHDGMDFHQWVDQGVHDV
o
UWR
7KHHSKHPHUDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQ²GXQHÀHOG²HSKHPHUDOVDOLQH ODNHFRPSOH[W\SLÀHVWHFWRQLFDOO\VWDEOHORZUHOLHIDUHDVXVX DOO\ORFDWHGZLWKLQDULG]RQHVXEWURSLFDOKLJKSUHVVXUHEHOWV &RQWLQHQWDO VDOLQH PXGÁDWV VDENKDV DUH FRPPRQSODFH LQ UHJLRQV RI VKDOORZ ZDWHU WDEOHV LQ WKLV ODFXVWULQH FRPSOH[ EXWORZUDWHVRIVXEVLGHQFHDQGKLJKUDWHVRIGHÁDWLRQPHDQ HYDSRULWHVDUHOHVVOLNHO\WREHSUHVHUYHGFRPSDUHGWRUDSLGO\ VXEVLGLQJDOOXYLDOIDQ²HSKHPHUDOVDOLQHODNHVHWWLQJV5DWKHU VHGLPHQWV DUH FRPSRVHG RI YDU\LQJ FRPELQDWLRQV RI VDOLQH PXGÁDWVRUVDQGÁDWVZLWKWKHPRUHVDOLQHLQWHUYDOVVKRZLQJ ZLGHVSUHDGKDORWXUEDWLRQEXWOLWWOHRUQRSUHVHUYHGVDOWV7KH ODWWHUZHUHUHF\FOHGDV§PWKLFNDWVXUIDFHFUXVWVGLVVROYHG DQGUHSUHFLSLWDWHGDIWHUHDFKÁRRGHYHQW
/LNHZLVH /DNH &KDG LQ 1RUWK &HQWUDO$IULFD DQRWKHU ZHOO GRFXPHQWHGH[DPSOHRIWKLVVW\OHLVIHGYLDWKH&KDUL/RJRQH ULYHUV\VWHPIURPPRQVRRQUDLQVWKDWW\SLFDOO\IDOOLQ-XQH -XO\DQG$XJXVW7KHVXEWURSLFDOSRVLWLRQRIDOOWKHVHH[DP SOHVPHDQVYHUWLFDOVHTXHQFHVUHWDLQHYLGHQFHRI3OHLVWRFHQH ÁXFWXDWLRQVLQPRQVRRQDOLQWHQVLW\0DQ\ODNHFRPSOH[HVLQ VRXWKHUQFHQWUDO$XVWUDOLD/DNH&DOODERQQD/DNH(\UH/DNH )URPH/DNH*DLUGQHUDQG/DNH7RUUHQV ZHUHIUHVKZDWHUWR EUDFNLVKZDWHUODNHVVRPH\HDUVDJR\HWWRGD\DUHVDOLQH
EX
,WOLTLYHSZ[YLHTÅVVKWSHPUK\ULÄLSK¶LWOLT LYHSZHSPULSHRL
(SKHPHUDOEUDLGHGVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQVVKHHWGHOWDVGXQHVDQG VDQGÁDWVDUHWKHGRPLQDQWIDFLHVLQWKHGHSRVLWLRQDOEDVLQQRW EHGGHG HYDSRULWHV /DNH (\UH NP /DNH$PDGHXV NP /DNH)URPHNP /DNH*DLUGQHU NP DQG /DNH7RUUHQV NP LQ LQODQG$XVWUDOLD DUH PRGHUQZHOOGRFXPHQWHGH[DPSOHVRIWKLVGHSRVLWLRQDOVW\OH )LJXUH3HOOHWDO 0DMRUÁRRGHYHQWVDUHPRVWO\IHG E\ORQJGLVWDQFHVRXWKZDUGWUDQVSRUWIURPLQWHQVHPRQVRRQDO RXWEXUVWVLQQRUWKHUQ$XVWUDOLD)LJXUH
: DU
XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHK\GURORJLFDOVLJQLÀFDQFHRIKDOLWHWH[WXUHV ,WKDVDGGHGDWKLUGJURXSRIWH[WXUHVWRSULRUQRWLRQVRI PDWUL[GRPLQDWHG GLVSODFHPHQW KDOLWH IRUPLQJ LQ WKH FDSLO ODU\IULQJHRIDVDENKDVLWWLQJLQD]RQHRIDVFHQGLQJZDWHUV DERYH D OHVV VDOLQH SKUHDWLF ZDWHU PDVV DQG VXEDTXHRXV FKHYURQVRYHUSULQWHGE\VXEDHULDOPLFURNDUVWIRUPLQJLQDUHDV RIHSKHPHUDOZDWHUVLQVDOLQHSDQV7KLVWKLUGWH[WXUDOVW\OH LVH[HPSOLÀHGE\WKHKDOLWHXQLWVFXUUHQWO\IRUPLQJLQ6DODU GH$WDFDPDDQGGRPLQDWLQJWKH0DVVLYH+DOLWHÀOORI6DODU *UDQGH,WLVDIRUPRIFKDRWLFGLVSODFHPHQWKDOLWHZLWKOLWWOH RUQRQRQHYDSRULWHPDWUL[DQGOLWWOHRUQRSUHVHUYHGFKHYURQ WH[WXUHV,WLVSRURXVDQGIRUPVPRVWO\LQWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJH DERYHDJURXQGZDWHUIHGKDOLWHVDWXUDWHGEULQHPDVVRUEULQH FXUWDLQ$VLWIRUPVLWFDQQLEDOLVHVLWVHOIWRVXFKDGHJUHHWKDW OLWWOHRUQRSULPDU\WH[WXUHLVSUHVHUYHG
/DNH )URPH /0LOO\DUD
NP
?b`nk^,'-2=kZbgZ`^bgmhZg][^mp^^geZd^lbgma^EZd^>rk^ ;Zlbgh_Lhnma:nlmkZebZ'
&+$37(5
o (
o (
VKHHWGHOWD VDOLQHPXGIODW VDOLQHSDQ
.DODZHHUXQD &UHHN
o6
:DUEXUWRQ &KDQQHO
&RRSHU &UHHN
0DGLJDQ *XOI
%HOW%D\
o6
NP
,QIORZYROXPHNP
NP
*R\GHU FKDQQHO
&RQWRXUVLQIHHWEVO
rk^[Zmarf^mkr%_Z\b^lZg]Ühh]bg`ablmhkr\hfibe^]_khfDhmpb\db!*21/"%Dhmpb\dbZg]:eeZg!*221"Zg] oZkbhnlk^_^k^g\^l\bm^]bgm^qm'EZd^Ühhk\hgmhnklZk^bgf^mk^l[^ehpl^Ze^o^e'
PXGÁDWVZLWKRQO\VKRUWWHUPHSLVRGHVRIÀOOLQJ/LNHZLVH /DNH &KDG KDV XQGHUJRQH PDVVLYH ÁXFWXDWLRQV LQ VL]H DQG VDOLQLW\DWRQHSRLQWGXULQJWKH3OHLVWRFHQHLWH[WHQGHGWRWKH 7LEHVWL0RXQWDLQVLQQRUWKZHVW&KDGDWDQRWKHUSRLQWLWZDV VXIÀFLHQWO\VDOLQHWRSUHFLSLWDWHQDWURQ(XJVWHUDQG0DJOLRQH 'URXJKWVVLQFHWKHVKDYHGHFUHDVHG/DNH&KDG OHYHOV VR WKDW LW LV QRZ H[WUHPHO\ VKDOORZ DQG GLYLGHG LQWR QRUWKHUQDQGVRXWKHUQSRROV7KLVGU\LQJLVQRWXQXVXDOWKH ODNH KDV GULHG XS FRPSOHWHO\ D QXPEHU RI WLPHV LQ WKH ODVW \HDUV:KDW LV XQXVXDO LQ WKH ODNH V ORQJ KLVWRU\ LV WKH HQYLURQPHQWDOVWUHVVFUHDWHGE\WRRPDQ\SHRSOHDWWHPSWLQJ WRHNHRXWDOLYLQJLQDQGDURXQGWKHODNH $QFLHQWFRXQWHUSDUWVWRWKHHSKHPHUDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQGXQH ÀHOGHSKHPHUDOVDOLQHODNHDVVRFLDWLRQLQFOXGHSRUWLRQVRIWKH /RZHU3HUPLDQ5RWOLHJHQGHRIQRUWKHUQ(XURSH3HUPLDQUHG EHGVRIWKH86LQWHULRUFHQWUHGRQ.DQVDVWKH/DWH7ULDVVLF RI QRUWKZHVW (XURSH DQG WKH 3DODHRSURWHUR]RLF :KLWZRUWK )RUPDWLRQRIWKH0W,VD%ORFN$XVWUDOLD*OHQQLHDE %HQLVRQ DQG *ROGVWHLQ 7DOERW HW DO 6LPSVRQ DQG(ULNVVRQ
3HRL,`YL(\Z[YHSPH /DNH(\UH1RUWKKDVDQDUHDRIVRPHNPDQGLV NPORQJDQGNPZLGH,WLVMRLQHGE\WKHQDUURZ*R\GHU &KDQQHOWR/DNH(\UH6RXWKZKLFKLVNPORQJDQGNP ZLGHZLWKDQDUHDRINP7KHORZHVWSDUWRI/DNH(\UH 1RUWKLVWKHHDVWHUQSDUWRI%HOW%D\ZLWKVRPHDUHDVVOLJKWO\ GHHSHUWKDQPDKGPDNLQJLWWKHORZHVWSRLQWRQWKH $XVWUDOLDQFRQWLQHQW )LJXUH 7KH ÁRRU RI WKH /DNH LV YHU\ÁDWZLWKERWWRPVORSHV§[VRWKHGHÀQLWLRQRI WKHH[DFWORFDWLRQRIWKHGHHSHVWSRLQWLVUDWKHUDUELWUDU\)RU WKHVDPHUHDVRQERXQGDULHVRILWVVHGLPHQWDU\IDFLHVWHQGWR PLJUDWH ODUJH GLVWDQFHV ZLWK OLWWOH FKDQJH LQ WKH ODNH ZDWHU OHYHO,QGU\WLPHVWKHORZHUSDUWVRI/DNH(\UH1RUWKLQ%HOW %D\DQG0DGLJDQ*XOIDUHFRYHUHGE\DEHGGHGKDOLWHFUXVW DURXQGPHWUHWKLFN7KH[WRQQHVRIVDOWKHOGLQWKLV FUXVWFRPSOHWHO\GLVVROYHVGXULQJPDMRUÁRRGVVRWKHODNHÁRRU DFWXDOO\ GHHSHQV WRSRJUDSKLFDOO\ GXULQJ D ÁRRG 'XOKXQW\ :KHQWKHODNHLVGU\WKHVDOLQHSDQFUXVWLVVXUURXQGHG E\DVDOLQHPXGÁDWIDFLHVZKHUHJ\SVXPJURZVGLVSODFLYHO\ LQWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJH)LJXUHV
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
?b`nk^,'.*'EZd^>rk^%Lhnma:nlmkZebZ'BfZ`^hge^_mmZd^ghgCZgnZkr*%+)))ZmZmbf^ikbhkmhZfZchkÜhh]bg`^o^gm' IZkmer\ehn]&h[l\nk^]bfZ`^hgkb`ammZd^ghg:ikbe/%+)))Z_m^kZfZchkfhglhhg&_^]Ühh]bgÜnqbgmheZd^_khfghkma^kg iZkmh_eZd^'Ma^^ehg`Zm^bgm^k]ngZelZ[daZlZg]iZglbgma^ghkma^kgiZkmh_ma^bfZ`^\hglmbmnm^ma^DZeeZdhhiZaIZgl' Ghm^ma^pZm^k&Ûee^]PZk[nkmhgrk^Zg]EZd^?khf^!Z_m^kAZ[^kf^ae%*21+" FLGHVZLWKWKHRQVHWRIJ\SVXP LQ DQG LQ /DNH (\UH UHFHLYHG VRPH NP IURP SUHFLSLWDWLRQ DURXQG 2FWREHU ZHVWHUQ WULEXWDULHV LQ WKUHH GD\V ZKLFK LPSOLHV GLVFKDUJHV ,WVVHDZDWHUOLNHEULQHHYROXWLRQLVW\SLFDORIPRVWLQODQG RIWKHRUGHURIP VRURQHVL[WKWKDWRIWKH$PD]RQ ZDWHUVLQ$XVWUDOLD7DEOHDQG&KDSWHU 7KH´ZHWµFRQWLQXHGLQWRZKHQDIWHUVRPHRIWKH ,QDQRWKHUZHVWHUQIHGÁRRGLQJHYHQWRFFXUUHGFRLQFLGLQJ PRVWGHYDVWDWLQJÁRRGVRIWKH&KDQQHO&RXQWU\LQ$XVWUDOLDQ ZLWKWKHÀOOLQJRI/DNH7RUUHQVRQWKHRWKHUVLGHRIWKH)OLQGHUV KLVWRU\ZDWHUIURPWKH&RRSHU&UHHNUHDFKHG/DNH(\UHIRU 5DQJHV/DNH7RUUHQVLVWKHVHFRQGODUJHVW$XVWUDOLDQSOD\D WKHÀUVWWLPHVLQFH DIWHU/DNH(\UHDQGLQLWÀOOHGIRUWKHÀUVWWLPHVLQFH 6KRUWWHUPLQÁRZUDWHVLQWR/DNH(\UHGXULQJERWKWKH DQGÁRRGLQJHYHQWVZHUHHQRUPRXVIRUH[DPSOH
$VZHOODVWKHEHLQJWKHUHJLRQDOVLQNIRULWVVXUIDFHUXQRII /DNH(\UH·VSRVLWLRQDOVRGHÀQHVWKHVRXWKHUQRXWÁRZRUVHHS DJHDUHDRIWKH*UHDW$UWHVLDQ%DVLQ*$% ZKLFKFRYHUVDQ
DUHDRIPLOOLRQNP )LJXUH 7KH*$%FRQVLVWVRI VHYHUDOFRQWLJXRXVVHGLPHQWDU\EDVLQVZLWKFRQÀQHGDTXLIHUV RI 7ULDVVLF -XUDVVLF DQG &UHWDFHRXV FRQWLQHQWDO TXDUW]RVH VDQGVWRQHV XQGHUODLQ E\ DQ LPSHUYLRXV SUH-XUDVVLF EDVH +DEHUPHKO ,W IRUPV D ODUJH V\QFOLQDO VWUXFWXUHXSOLIWHGDQGH[SRVHGDORQJLW·VHDVWHUQPDUJLQOHDYLQJ WKHRYHUDOOEDVLQWLOWHGVRXWKZHVW5HFKDUJHWRWKH*$%RFFXUV SULPDULO\DORQJWKHXSOLIWHGHDVWHUQPDUJLQVDQGDOVRRQWKH ZHVWHUQPDUJLQVZKHUHWKHDTXLIHUVDUHH[SRVHGRURYHUODLQE\ VDQG\VHGLPHQWV&RQÀQHGJURXQGZDWHUWKHQSHUFRODWHVYHU\ VORZO\WRZDUGVWKHWHUPLQDOEDVHOHYHORI/DNH(\UHDQGVDOLQH ODNHVXPSVUHDFKLQJWKH/DNH(\UHDUHDDIWHUDFDOFXODWHGWUDYHO WLPHRIXSWRWKUHHPLOOLRQ\HDUV)LJXUH 1DWXUDOGLVFKDUJHIURPWKH*$%FRPHVIURPWZRSULQFLSDO SURFHVVHV GLIIXVHYHUWLFDOOHDNDJHWRZDUGVWKHUHJLRQDOZDWHU WDEOHDQG IURPIRFXVHGRXWÁRZYLDVSULQJVORFDWHGLQ JURXSVDORQJWKHZHVWHUQDQGVRXWKHUQERXQGDULHVRIWKH /DNH(\UHEDVLQ)LJXUH 0DQ\VSULQJPRXQGVGHÀQH OLQHDUIDXOWFRQWUROOHGVXUIDFHWUHQGV)ORZIURPWKHPRXQGV WRWDOVNP\HDUDQGLVDPLQRUGLVFKDUJHFRPSRQHQWRI WKHRYHUDOOGLIIXVHDUWHVLDQGLVFKDUJHWRWKHZDWHUWDEOH%XWLW FUHDWHVGLVWLQFWFDUERQDWHVSULQJPRXQGVZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOWREH SUHVHUYHG3RQGHU0XGG 0HDVXUHGÁRZV IURPYDULRXVVSULQJVUDQJHIURPWRPVWRWDOOLQJ DURXQGPV6DOLQLWLHVUDQJHIURPWRSSPS+ IURPWRDQGZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHVIURPWR& $W\SLFDOPRXQGFRQVLVWVRIDFHQWUDOSRRORIZDWHUDQRXWHU ULPRIUHHGVDQGYHJHWDWLRQDQRXWÁRZFKDQQHODQGVXFFHV VLYHOD\HUVRIFDUERQDWH)LJXUH 7KH\DUHFRPSRVHGRI PLFULWLFPDUOVLQYHUWHEUDWHUHPDLQVPLFURELDOWXIDSLVROLWHV DQG PLFULWHFHPHQWHG HROLDQ VDQGV DQG DUH VXUURXQGHG E\ J\SVLIHURXV VDENKD PXGÁDWV 6SULQJ PRXQGV DUH HVSHFLDOO\ REYLRXVLQWKHVRXWKHUQSDUWRI/DNH(\UH+DEHUPHKORSFLW
:'
&+$37(5
$FWLYHPRXQGVDUHXSWRPLQKHLJKWDQGXSWRPDFURVV 7KHQRZH[WLQFW+DPLOWRQ+LOO6SULQJ0RXQGULVHVPRUHWKDQ PDERYHWKHVXUURXQGLQJK\SHUVDOLQHSOD\DÁRRUVXJJHVW LQJWKDWODWH3OHLVWRFHQHDUWHVLDQSUHVVXUHVKDYHEHHQKLJKHU +DEHUPHKORSFLW )ORZUDWHVIURP/DNH(\UHVSULQJVDUH GLUHFWO\SURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHDUHDRIZHWODQGYHJHWDWLRQWKDWWKH VSULQJVXSSRUWV:LOOLDPVDQG+ROPHV 7KHVKRUHVRIPRGHUQ/DNH(\UHHURGHWKHHGJHVRIVRPHQRZ LQDFWLYHVSULQJPRXQGVDQGDQXPEHURIOXQHWWHFRUHGLVODQGV ZLWKLQWKHODNH7KHVRXWKHDVWHUQODNHFRDVWOLQHZKLFKWRGD\ FRQVLVWVRIHURGHGGXQHVDQGFOLIIVLVEHLQJUDSLGO\FXWEDFN ZLWKDQHURVLRQUDWHLQWKHRUGHURIPSHUPDMRUÁRRG7KH SUHVHQFH RI VHYHUDO ROGHU VWUDQGOLQHV VRPH DQG PDERYHWKHZDWHUOHYHOLQGLFDWHSUHYLRXVXQUHFRUGHG PDMRUÁRRGHYHQWV$FFRUGLQJWR.RWZLFNL WKHDERYH OHYHOVUHSUHVHQWDSSUR[LPDWHVWRUDJHVRIDQGNP UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHKLJKHVWSRWHQWLDODYDLODEOHVWRUDJHLQWKH/DNH (\UHGHSUHVVLRQLVPRUHWKDQNPLHDOPRVWVHYHQWLPHV JUHDWHUWKDQWKHVWRUDJH7KHWHUPV´IXOOµRU´ÁRRGHGWR FDSDFLW\µVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHXVHGFDXWLRXVO\LQ/DNH(\UHLQ UHODWLRQWRKLVWRULFDOÁRRGLQJHYHQWV 7KH/DNH(\UHEDVLQKDVEHHQDQDUHDRIODFXVWUDOVHGLPHQ WDWLRQ VLQFH WKH 0HVR]RLF 7KH ÀUVW GRFXPHQWHG ODFXVWULQH VHGLPHQWVDUHRIIUHVKZDWHU/DNH:DOORRQZKLFKRFFXSLHG FHQWUDOHDVWHUQSDUWRIWKH$XVWUDOLDQFRQWLQHQWVRPH0D 0LGGOH-XUDVVLF %\WKHODWH&UHWDFHRXV0D LWKDG VKUXQNWREHFRPHWKHPXFKVPDOOHU[NP/DNH:LQWRQ %\WKHHDUO\0LRFHQH0D WKHIUHVKZDWHUODNHKDGDVVXPHG DSRVLWLRQFORVHO\UHVHPEOLQJWKDWRI/DNH(\UHLWHYHQKDG DQLQGLJHQRXVVSHFLHVRIIUHVKZDWHUGROSKLQ7KLVIUHVKZDWHU V\VWHPLQWXUQHYROYHGLQWR/DNH'LHULD3OHLVWRFHQH´JUHDWHU /DNH(\UHµZKLFKXQGHUZHQWODUJHVFDOHYDULDWLRQVLQVL]HDQG VDOLQLW\IURPDSHUHQQLDOIUHVKZDWHUODNHXSWRPHWUHVGHHS
;'
Tqjoh!wfou Vqqfs boe!qppm Mpxfs tmpqf Pvugmpx!diboofm tmpqf Ubjm Jodsfbtjohmz!tbmjof Nvegmbu
Dpogjojoh!cfet
Dpogjojoh!cfet
Xbufs!ubcmf
6!n
Gsbduvsf!{pof
Xbufs!ubcmf 41!n
?b`nk^,'.,':":\mbo^fhng]likbg`bgma^lhnma^kgfZk`bgh_ma^@k^Zm:km^lbZg;ZlbgZkm^lbZgpa^k^pZm^knimh,fbeebhg r^Zklhe]k^mnkglmhma^lnk_Z\^';"L\a^fZmb\\khlll^\mbhgh_mrib\ZeEZd^>rk^;Zlbgfhng]likbg`'
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
WRDJURXQGZDWHUFRQWUROOHGSOD\DPDUNHGE\VXEVWDQWLDOVHGL PHQWGHÁDWLRQWRHQWHUWKH+RORFHQHDVDGU\VDOWSDQVXEMHFW WRRFFDVLRQDOÁRRGLQJ0DJHHHWDO0DJHHDQG0LOOHU )RXU/DWH3OHLVWRFHQHVKRUHOLQHVKDYHEHHQUHFRJQLVHG LQWKRVHSDUWVRIWKHSUHVHQW/DNH(\UHVXUURXQGVQRWORFDWHG GRZQZLQGRIWKHGHSUHVVLRQ7KH\DUHDNDVKRUHOLQHDW P$+'$XVWUDOLDQ+HLJKW'DWXP DNDVKRUHOLQHDW P$+'DNDVKRUHOLQHDWP$+'VKRUHOLQHDQGD NDVKRUHOLQHDWP$+'ZKLFKFRUUHVSRQGVWR6WDJH HRQWKH4XDWHUQDU\HXVWDWLFFXUYH)LJXUH0DJHHHWDO 'H9RJHOHWDO
(NL 4HYPUL 3HRL,`YLSL]LSTYLSH[P]L[VZLHSL]LSHZ(/+ RH PZV[VWL Z[HNL
$IWHU WKLV DFPH OHYHO WKH ODNH WKHQ VKDOORZHG DQG EULHÁ\ GULHG DW OHDVW RQFH EXW QR HYLGHQFH LV VHHQ RI GHÁDWLRQ RU SHGRJHQHVLV0DJHHHWDO WKHQWKHODNHUHÀOOHGWR PUHODWLYHWR$+'EHWZHHQDQGND3KDVH,9 ZKHQ ODFXVWULQHGHHSZDWHUFOD\VFDOFDUHRXVQHDUVKRUHDQGEHDFK VDQGVDQGFODVWLFJ\SVXPHYDSRULWHVZHUHGHSRVLWHGFRHYDOO\ ZLWKUHQHZHGÁXYLDODJJUDGDWLRQ)OXFWXDWLRQVLQODNHOHYHO DQGVDOLQLW\QRWHGE\0DJHHHWDORSFLW VXJJHVWGHFUHDVLQJ UHJXODULW\RILQÁRZDQGJUDGXDOGLPLQXWLRQRIWKHPRQVRRQ WRZDUGWKHHQGRI3KDVH,9 6HGLPHQWVRI3KDVH,9ZHUHSHGRJHQLFDOO\PRGLÀHGDQGHYHQ WXDOO\WUXQFDWHGE\GHÁDWLRQZKHQWKHODNHGULHGDW²ND DQGGLVUXSWHGJ\SVLIHURXVSOD\DVHGLPHQWVZHUHWUDQVSRUWHG GRZQZLQG,QFLVLRQRIWULEXWDU\ULYHUVLQWRSUHYLRXVÁXYLDODQG ODFXVWULQHVHGLPHQWVH[WHQGLQJGRZQDOPRVWWRWKHPRGHUQ OHYHOGRFXPHQWVDWUDQVLWLRQWRVLJQLÀFDQWDULGLW\ /DFXVWULQHFRQGLWLRQVUHWXUQHGDW²NDSKDVH,,, GHSRV LWLQJODNHVHGLPHQWDQGDSURPLQHQWEHDFKVDQGULFKLQWKH EUDFNLVK ZDWHU JDVWURSRG &R[LHOODGD JLOHVLL DW P UHODWLYH WR$+'FRHYDOÁXYLDODJJUDGDWLRQDQGYHUWLFDODFFUHWLRQRI
7OHZL00
*UHDWHVW HIIHFWLYH DULGLW\ LQ /DNH (\UH LQ WKH SDVW N\ RFFXUUHGLQPDULQHR[\JHQLVRWRSHVWDJH0,6 ZKHQEDVLQ GHÁDWLRQZDVPORZHUWKDQWRGD\)LJXUH 7KLVDULG HYHQWZDVIROORZHGDEUXSWO\E\IRUPDWLRQRIWKHGHHSHVWSHU HQQLDOODNHSKDVH9DWPUHODWLYHWRWKH$XVWUDOLDQKHLJKW GDWXP >$+'³PHDQ VHD OHYHO@ D OHYHO PHWUHV DERYH VHDOHYHODQGVRPHPHWUHVDERYHWKHPRGHUQSOD\DÁRRU $WOHDVWPRIÀQHO\ODPLQDWHGJ\SVLIHURXVDQGFDOFDUHRXV FOD\ZHUHGHSRVLWHGDWWKLVWLPHLQFRQGLWLRQVFKDUDFWHULVHGE\ VDOLQLW\VWUDWLÀFDWLRQDQGVWURQJO\UHGXFLQJERWWRPFRQGLWLRQV 0DJHHHWDO $WWKHVDPHPHDQGHULQJLQÁRZLQJVWUHDPV GHSRVLWHGWKLFNODWHUDODFFUHWLRQVHGLPHQWVDQGÁXYLRGHOWDLF VHGLPHQWDWWKHVWUHDPPRXWKV
7OHZL0
H
I
7OHZL0= 74HNL
J K
7OHZL000 74HNL
L
7OHZL= 74HNL
?b`nk^,'.-'EZm^JnZm^kgZkr\aZg`^lbgeZd^e^o^ebgEZd^ >rk^!Z_m^kFZ`^^^mZe'%+))-"'
RYHUEDQNPXGVRFFXUUHG7KRXJKKDYLQJVKDOORZHUZDWHUDQG VKRUWHUGXUDWLRQWKDQ3KDVHV9DQG,93KDVH,,,KDGVLJQLÀFDQWO\ GHHSHUZDWHUDQGORQJHUGXUDWLRQWKDQWKHPRGHUQHSKHPHUDO HYHQWVDQGUHSUHVHQWVWKHODVWGHHSZDWHUSHUHQQLDOODNHLQWKH EDVLQDQGWKHODVWLQÁXHQFHRIPRGHUDWHO\HIIHFWLYHPRQVRRQ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ $PDMRUGHÁDWLRQHSLVRGHEHWZHHQDQGNDH[FDYDWHG WKHSUHVHQW/DNH(\UHEDVLQWRGHSRVLWJ\SVXPDQGFOD\ULFK OXQHWWHVDWDQXPEHURIVLWHVDURXQGWKHODNHHGJHDVZHOODV FRYHULQJIRUPHUVKRUHOLQHVRQWKHZLQGZDUGVLGHRIWKHODNH $IWHUGHÁDWLRQFHDVHGDWKLFNVHFRQGDU\J\SVXPVRLOSURÀOH J\SVLWH GHYHORSHGRQWKHGXQHVHDUO\LQR[\JHQLVRWRSHVWDJH %HWZHHQDERXWDQG\U%3/DNH(\UHZDVDW OHDVWDVGU\DVLWLVWRGD\$WPDQ\VLWHVDOXQHWWHOLNHSOD\D PDUJLQDOHROLDQXQLWIRUPHGIURPVDOLQHPXGÁDWVHGLPHQWV GHÁDWHG IURP WKH SOD\D ÁRRU$IWHU \U %3 D PLQRU ODFXVWUDOSKDVHRFFXUUHG3KDVH, XQWLOWKHPRGHUQHSKHPHUDO SOD\DUHJLPHEHFDPHHVWDEOLVKHGDW\U%3
&+$37(5
D C B
Nbejhbo Hvmg
nfusft BIE .25
B .26
Ibmjuf
Mbnjobufe!mbdvtusjof hzqtfpvt!dmbz
Sfe.cspxo!esz qmbzb!nve
Usbothsfttjwf!tboet
Fqifnfsbmmz gmppefe!qmbzb hzqtfpvt!nve
C
Fubevoob!Gpsnbujpo )Njpdfof*
D
XQDEOHWRDFFXPXODWHWKLFN VHTXHQFHVRIEHGGHGVDOWLQ WKHORZHVWSDUWVRIWKHGUDLQ DJH EDVLQ ,W VLPSO\ EORZV DZD\ +DORWXUEDWLRQ RI VLOLFLFODVWLFV LQ FRQWLQHQWDO VDENKDVLQDVVRFLDWLRQZLWK ZLGHVSUHDG UHGEHG ÁXYLDO DQGHROLDQGHSRVLWLRQLVWKH GRPLQDQW VLJQDWXUH RI WKLV VW\OHRIGHSRVLWLRQ
Hbq
.27
3HRL-YVTL(\Z[YHSPH
/DNH)URPH6RXWK$XVWUDO LDLVDQRWKHUH[DPSOHRIDQ HSKHPHUDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQ .29 ² GXQH ÀHOG ² HSKHPHUDO VDOLQH ODNH FRPSOH[ LQ WKH PDMRU RXWÁRZ ]RQH RI WKH .2: *UHDW$UWHVLDQ %DVLQ )LJ XUHV /DNH )URPH LV 1 6 21 26 31 DSSUR[LPDWHO\NPORQJ Ljmpnfusft DQGNPZLGHZLWKDQDUHD ?b`nk^,'..'=blmkb[nmbhgh_[nkb^]lZebg^iZgaZebm^[^]lZg]Zllh\bZm^]l^]bf^gmlbgFZ]b`Zg RINPDQGOLHVWRWKH @ne_%EZd^>rk^Ghkma!Z_m^kFZ`^^^mZe'%*22."' VRXWKRI/DNH(\UH)LJXUH 6HGLPHQWV FRPH *LYHQ WKH ODUJH YROXPHV RI ZDWHU SHULRGLFDOO\ HQWHULQJ WKH PDLQO\ IURP WKH ZHVW YLD D VHULHV RI VKRUW UHODWLYHO\ VWHHS ODNH GHSUHVVLRQ DQG LWV ORQJ KLVWRU\ H[WHQGLQJ EDFN WR WKH JUDGLHQWVWUHDPVRULJLQDWLQJLQWKH)OLQGHUV5DQJHVVRPH 0HVR]RLFRQHZRXOGSHUKDSVH[SHFWODUJHYROXPHVRIVDOWWR WRNPDZD\2YHUÁRZZDWHUVIURP/DNH(\UHVRPHWLPHV KDYHDWWLPHVDFFXPXODWHGLQWKHODNHVHGLPHQWV&HUWDLQO\ VSLOO LQWR WKH QRUWK RI WKH ODNH YLD :DUUDZRRFDUD &KDQQHO /DNH(\UH0DGLJDQ*XOI LVWKHRQO\$XVWUDOLDQSOD\DWRUHWDLQ ZKLFKDOVRFRQQHFWVODNHV*UHJRU\%ODQFKHDQG&DOODERQQD EXULHG3OHLVWRFHQHKDOLWHEHGV)LJXUH0DJHHHWDO 7KLVVSLOORYHUSUHYHQWV/DNH(\UHZDWHUIURPWRGD\ULVLQJWR EXWERWKEHGVDUHOHVVWKDQDPHWUHWKLFN7KHWRWDO3OHLVWRFHQH DKHLJKWRIPRUHWKDQPHWUHVDERYHWKH$XVWUDOLDQKHLJKW WKLFNQHVVLVRQO\PHWUHVLQWKLVWKHVDOWLHVWSDUWRI/DNH(\UH GDWXP$+' 1RUWK$ODFNRISUHVHUYDWLRQDFFRPPRGDWLRQVSDFHWLHGWR RQJRLQJ ODNH ÁRRU GHÁDWLRQ UHÁHFWV WKH PHWHRULFDUWHVLDQ 7KH ODNH FRQWDLQV PDQ\ LVODQGV PDLQO\ LQ WKH VRXWK ZKHUH UHF\FOLQJK\GURORJ\WKDWFKDUDFWHULVHVPRVWODUJHORZUHOLHI WKHODNHÁRRULVDWLWVORZHVWVRPHPEHORZPHDQVHDOHYHO SOD\DVRILQODQG$XVWUDOLD&KDSWHU )LJXUH 7KHVH LVODQGV DUH WKH HURVLRQDO UHPQDQWV RI HDUOLHU QRZ ODUJHO\ GHÁDWHG 3OHLVWRFHQH VHGLPHQWV DQG DUH *LOOHVSLHHWDO LQWHUSUHWHGWKHEXULHGKDOLWHLQ0DGLJDQ FRPSRVHG RI J\SVLIHURXV TXDUW] VDQGV DWRS D FOD\ VXUIDFH *XOILVDIRUPHUVDOWSDQXQLWZKLFKZDVSDUWLDOO\GLVVROYHG $URXQGWKHHGJHVRIWKHODNHWKHUHDUHTXDUW]RVHVSLWVDQGEDUV GXULQJWKHRQVHWRIDPLQRUKDOLWHSKDVHLQWKHHDUO\+RORFHQH EHDFKGHSRVLWVDQGGHOWDIDQVDVZHOODV3OHLVWRFHQHWUDQVYHUVH DQGWKHQSUHVHUYHGE\WKHGHSRVLWLRQRIWKHRYHUO\LQJJ\SVLIHURXV DQGORQJLWXGLQDOGHVHUWGXQHV'UDSHUDQG-HQVHQ $V FOD\V%XWZLWKWKLFNQHVVHVRIOHVVWKDQDPHWUHIRUHDFKRI LQ/DNH(\UHVKHHWGHOWDIDQVGHÀQHWKHHQWU\SRLQWVRIWKH WKH WZR SUHVHUYHG VDOLQH SDQ EHGV LW LV QRW D JHRORJLFDOO\ ODUJHUHSKHPHUDOVWUHDPVDQGDUHEXLOWE\WKHFRDOHVFHRIÁDW VLJQLÀFDQW ERG\ RI KDOLWH ,QKHUHQW ORZ UHOLHI DQG DUWHVLDQ OHQVHVRIHSKHPHUDOVWUHDPVHGLPHQWDQGGRPLQDWHGE\ORZ K\GURORJLHVPHDQVWKHHSKHPHUDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQ²GXQHÀHOG DQJOHOD\HULQJ6WUHDPFKDQQHOVDUHVKDOORZVWUDLJKWWRJHQWO\ ²HSKHPHUDOVDOLQHODNHSOD\DVRI$XVWUDOLDDQGHOVHZKHUHDUH FXUYHG IHDWXUHV ZLWK IHZ SRLQW EDUV 2[LGLVHG RUJDQLFULFK PXGVGHÀQHORZHVWSDUWVRIWKHFKDQQHOV)LQHWRFRDUVHVDQGV .28
Hbq
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
ZLWKPLQRUJUDYHOVIRUPWKHEXONRIWKHVKHHWGHOWDVHGLPHQW ,QWHUFKDQQHODUHDVDUHFRPSRVHGPRVWO\RIUHZRUNHGHROLDQ VDQGV0DUJLQZDUGHYDSRULWLFÁDWVZLWKZLGHVSUHDGFDSLOODU\ J\SVXPIRUPODUJHDUHDVSHULSKHUDOWREXWVRPHWLPHVDWRS WKHVKHHWGHOWDVDQGSULVPV )XUWKHURXWLQWRWKHODNHWKHFKDQQHOVGLHRXWDQGSDVVLQWRWKH VDQGVDQGPXGVRIWKHVDOLQHPXGÁDWZKLFKGRPLQDWHVWKH ODNHEDVLQ7KHEXONRIWKHPXGÁDWPDWUL[LVDTXDUW]RVHVDQG\
PXGRUPXGZLWKGLVSODFLYHJ\SVXPIRUPLQJLQWKHFDSLOODU\ IULQJHDQGGLVSODFLYHKDOLWHLQWKHXSSHUPRVWFP0XGÁDW VHGLPHQWVWHQGWREHPDVVLYHEXWFDQORFDOO\VKRZLQGLVWLQFW ZLVS\RUJDQLFODPLQDWLRQ,QWKHORZHVWSDUWRIWKHODNHÁRRU LVWKHVDOLQHSDQPDGHXSRIDQHSKHPHUDOKDOLWHFUXVWXSWR FPWKLFNDQGFRPSRVHGRIKDOLWHUDIWVDQGFKHYURQV7KH FUXVWFRPSOHWHO\GLVVROYHVGXULQJWLPHVRIÁRRGDQGLVFRQWLQX DOO\XQGHUODLQE\ZDWHUVDWXUDWHGPXGVZLWKODUJHFU\VWDOVRI OHQWLFXODUDQGSULVPDWLFJ\SVXP
/LNH /DNH (\UH WKH ODNH DOVR GLVSOD\V ODUJH DFWLYH VSULQJ PRXQGV DORQJ LWV HDVWHUQ VLGH 0RXQG VHGLPHQWV DUH PDGH XSRIYDU\LQJSURSRUWLRQVRIGHWULWDOVHGLPHQWDQGDXWKLJHQLF DUDJRQLWHFDOFLWHDQGGRORPLWHFHPHQWVIRUPLQJDQPLFURELDO WXIDELQGVWRQH$QDSURQRIJ\SVLWHIULQJHVWKHDFWLYHPRXQGV $VLQ/DNH(\UHWKHPRXQGVLQGLFDWHIDXOWIRFXVHGRXWÁRZ IHG IURP DTXLIHUV RI WKH *UHDW $UWHVLDQ %DVLQ DQG OLQH XS SDUDOOHO WR WKH PDMRU QRUWKVRXWK QRUPDO IDXOW V\VWHP WKDW FKDUDFWHULVHVWKHDUHD 7KHLQVHWLQ)LJXUHVKRZVWKHVDOLQLW\HYROXWLRQRIDEULQH VKHHWIURP$SULOXQWLOFRPSOHWHGHVLFFDWLRQPRQWKV ODWHULQ0DUFK7KHUDWHRIVDOLQLW\FKDQJHLQWKHEULQH VKHHWZDVFOLPDWLFDOO\FRQWUROOHG,Q$SULOLWZDVDVKHHW RIPHVRKDOLQHZDWHUÆ FRYHULQJWKHSUHYLRXVO\GU\ODNH ÁRRU0XFKRIWKHVDOLQLW\LQWKHZDWHUVKHHWVRRQDIWHUÁRRG LQJFDPHIURPGLVVROXWLRQRIWKHVDOWFUXVWWKDWKDGSUHYLRXVO\ RFFXSLHGWKHFHQWUDOGHSUHVVLRQ7KHEULQHVKHHWUHPDLQHGIRU PRQWKVWKURXJKWKHFRROPRQWKVRIZLQWHUDQGVSULQJZLWK OLWWOHFKDQJHLQLWVPHVRKDOLQHVDOLQLW\7KHQZLWKSDVVDJHLQWR WKHKRWVXPPHURIWKH$XVWUDOLDQLQWHULRUEULQHVKHHWVDOLQLW\ URVHUDSLGO\,QOHVVWKDQDPRQWKLWPRYHGIURPLWVSUHYLRXV VDOLQLW\SODWHDXLQWRJ\SVXPVDWXUDWLRQDQGWKHQLQWRWKHKDOLWH VDWXUDWLRQÀHOGEHIRUHGHVLFFDWLRQWKUHHPRQWKVODWHU%\HQG 0DUFKHDUO\$SULODOPRVWD\HDUDIWHUWKHÁRRG WKHODNH ÁRRUKDGGULHGRXWDQGLWVFPWKLFNVDOWFUXVWKDGUHIRUPHG 7KLVVW\OHRIVDOLQLW\LQFUHDVHZLWKDORQJSODWHDXRIPHVRKDOLQH ZDWHUVLVLPSRUWDQWWROLIHLQWKHODNHDVLWDOORZVVXIÀFLHQWWLPH IRUDKDORWROHUDQWPDFURDQGPLFURIDXQDWREUHHGDQGVXUYLYH LQWRDGXOWKRRG3ODWHDXVLQVDOLQLW\HYROXWLRQFDQFRQWUROWKH LQWHQVLW\RIWKH´IHDVWRUIDPLQHµUHVSRQVHLQPDQ\VDOLQHZDWHU ERGLHVZRUOGZLGH&KDSWHU
3HRL*HSSHIVUUH(\Z[YHSPH /DNH&DOODERQQDORFDWHGEHWZHHQ/DNH(\UHDQG/DNH)URPH )LJXUH LVDQRWKHUH[DPSOHRIFOLPDWHGHWHULRUDWLRQLQWKH HSKHPHUDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQVHWWLQJLQODUJHVDOLQHODNHVLQWKH $XVWUDOLDQLQWHULRU6RPH0DWKHODNHZDVDSUHGRPL QDQWO\IUHVKZDWHUODNHVXUURXQGHGE\JUDVV\SODLQVDQGVXEMHFW WRSHULRGLFVKULQNDJHDQGGHVLFFDWLRQ:HOOVDQG7HGIRUG &RPSDUHGWRWRGD\WKLVZDVDWLPHRIJUHDWHUPRQVRRQDOVXSSO\ WRWKH/DNH(\UH%DVLQ7RGD\/DNH&DOODERQQDLVDGU\SOD\D VXUURXQGHGE\GHVHUW7KHQWKH3OHLVWRFHQHODNHZDVRIYDULDEOH VDOLQLW\EXWZDVVHYHUDOWLPHVWKHVL]HRIWKHSUHVHQW&DOODERQQD VDOLQHPXGÁDWDQGQHYHUDVGU\DVLWLVWRGD\3ODQWUHPDLQV DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKLVWLPHVXJJHVWDPRUHDUERUHVFHQWÁRUDWKDQ WKDWQHDUWKHSUHVHQWGD\HGJHRIWKHHYDSRULWLFPXGÁDWEXW
&+$37(5
RQHFRQWDLQLQJWD[DWKDWVWLOOH[LVWLQWKHVXUURXQGLQJUHJLRQ 7KHVHIDFWVLQGLFDWHDVHDVRQDOFOLPDWHZLWKÁXFWXDWLQJZDWHU WDEOHEXWDUHJLRQDOO\PRUHHIIHFWLYHUDLQIDOOWKDQDWSUHVHQW WKH$XVWUDOLDQYHUVLRQRI/DNH&KDG" 7KLV VDYDQQDKVW\OH YHJHWDWLRQ VXSSRUWHG ODUJH QXPEHUV RI 'LSURWRGRQDKLSSRSRWDPXVVL]HGPDUVXSLDODQGWKHODUJHVW PDUVXSLDONQRZQWRHYHUH[LVWLQ$XVWUDOLDDVZHOODVRWKHU ODUJHPDUVXSLDOVLQFOXGLQJJLDQWNDQJDURRV7KHVHODUJHERGLHG YHUWHEUDWHVZHUHPLUHGLQWKHFOD\VGXULQJWLPHVRIORZZDWHU RUGHVLFFDWLRQZKLOHDWWHPSWLQJWRFURVVWKHÁRRURIWKHODNH 7RGD\ IRVVLO FDUFDVVHV FDQ EH IRXQG EHQHDWK WKRXVDQGV RI PXGFRYHUHGHYDSRULWHFHPHQWHGPRXQGVOLWWHULQJWKHH[SRVHG ODNHÁRRU*HRV\VWHPVPRGHOOLQJRIWKH3OHLVWRFHQHK\GURORJ\ E\ 'H9RJHO HW DO VKRZV WKDW ODNHV &DOODERQQD DQG QHDUE\ %ODQFKH ZHUH WKH ODVW WZR UHPDLQLQJ ZDWHU KROHV LQ WKHFDWFKPHQWZKHQHYHUWKHV\VWHPGULHGDWWKHHQGRIHDFK ZHWLQWHUYDO
7LYLUUPHSZ[YLHTÅVVKWSHPU¶WLYLUUPHSZHSPULSHRL 3HUHQQLDOVWUHDPÁRRGSODLQ²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ÁRZ5HVHDUFKHUV ZKRKDYHQRWH[SHULHQFHGDKHDY\GHVHUWUDLQVWRUPRIWHQGR QRWDSSUHFLDWHKRZPXFKDQGKRZTXLFNO\PRLVWXUHFDQHQWHU WKH V\VWHP DQG PRYH ODUJH YROXPHV RI VHGLPHQW ,W FUHDWHV GHEULVFKDUJHGUDJLQJWRUUHQWVLQQRUPDOO\GU\VWUHDPEHGVRI WKHKLQWHUODQGFURVVEHGGHGDQGULSSOHGVKHHWVDQGVYDVWDUHDV RIPXGG\ÁRRGSODLQDQGLQDGD\RUWZRFDQFRQYHUWDVDOLQH SDQVXPSLQWRDODNHÀOOHGZLWKEUDFNLVKZDWHUDQGWHHPLQJ ZLWKDKDORWROHUDQWELRWD&KDSWHU 7DEOHOLVWVH[WUHPH UDWHVRIUDLQIDOOLQVRPHRIWKHDUHDVWKDWRFFDVLRQDOO\FDQIHHG KXJHYROXPHVRIVXUIDFHÁRZLQWRWKHVDOLQHODNHGHSUHVVLRQV 2QFHWKLVKXJHYROXPHRIZDWHUKDVPRYHGODUJHYROXPHVRI
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
,GHÀ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À ,QQDPLQFND$XVWUDOLD -DQ PP PPLQGD\V QLWLRQ HROLDQ VDENKDV OLNHDOOVDENKDVUHTXLUH %DOFDQRRQD$XVWUDOLD 0DUFK PP PPLQGD\V WKHXSSHUSDUWRIWKHFDS &KLFDPD3HUX PP PPLQVLQJOHVWRUP LOODU\IULQJHWRLQWHUVHFW /LPD3HUX PP PPPRUHWKDQWLPHVDQQXDO WKHODQGVXUIDFH)OXFWX 7DEOH5DWHVRIH[WUHPHUDLQIDOOHYHQWVWKDWFUHDWHVKHHWIORRGVLQWKHDUUR\RVHSKHPHUDOIDQVDQG´FKDQQHOFRXQWU\µ DWLQJ ZDWHU OHYHOV DQG IOXYLDOV\VWHPVIHHGLQJVXUIDFHZDWHUVLQWRVDOLQHODNHVDQGSDQV ZDWHUWDEOHVZLOOPRYH DVDENKDVWUDQGOLQHEDFN VLOLFLFODVWLFVHGLPHQWLQWRWKHODNHGHSUHVVLRQLWGULHVRXWZLWKLQ DQGIRUWKRYHUWKHORZHUSDUWVRIDQDULGGUDLQDJHVRWKDWHROLDQ ZHHNVWRPRQWKVDQGWKHV\VWHPWKHQFDQVWD\GU\IRU\HDUV VDENKDVHGLPHQWVDUHRIWHQLQWHUFDODWHGZLWKXQLWVGHSRVLWHGLQ :LWKGHVLFFDWLRQWKHQHZO\GHSRVLWHGVHGLPHQWLVVXEMHFWWR HLWKHUWKHHSKHPHUDOVDOLQHSDQRULQVDQGVKHHWV7KHUDWLRRI WKHYDJDULHVRIGHÁDWLRQDQGZLWKORQJHUWHUPFOLPDWLFFKDQJH VLOLFLFODVWLFPDWUL[WRFDSLOODU\HYDSRULWHLQDQHROLDQVDENKD DQGORZHULQJRIWKHUHJLRQDOZDWHUWDEOHFDQHYROYHLQWRZKDW XQLWPHDQVLWFDQEHIXUWKHUFODVVLÀHGLQWR GHWULWDOO\GRPL FDQEHH[WHQVLYHHROLDQVDQGDQGGXVWVKHHWV QDWHGZHWHROLDQVDENKD ZLWKDFDSLOODU\VXFFHVVLRQVKRZLQJ KDORWXUEDWLRQEXWOLWWOHRUQRSUHVHUYHGFDSLOODU\VDOWVSRVVLEOH K\GURFDUERQUHVHUYRLU DQG FKHPLFDOO\GRPLQDWHGVDOLQH HROLDQVDENKD ZLWKDEXQGDQWFDSLOODU\VDOWVSUHVHUYHGSRV ,VSPHUZHIROHZ VLEOHVHDO 6RIDUWKLVFKDSWHUKDVGHVFULEHGDQGGHÀQHGVDENKDGHSRVL WLRQLQHLWKHUPDULQHPDUJLQRUFRQWLQHQWDOVHWWLQJV,QERWK 0DWUL[LQZHWHROLDQVDENKDVKDVDFKDUDFWHULVWLFDVVRFLDWLRQ VLWXDWLRQV WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI DQFLHQW FRXQWHUSDUWV FRPHV RIVHGLPHQWDU\VWUXFWXUHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHSKHPHUDOZDWHUDQG IURPWKHPDWUL[QRWWKHVDOWV3XWVLPSO\QRGXODUDQK\GULWH HROLDQRYHUSULQWVUDQJLQJIURPVXEDTXHRXVFXUUHQWDQGZDYH DFFXPXODWLQJLQDPDULQHVDENKDLVKRVWHGLQDQGLQWHUFDODWHG ULSSOHVZDY\ODPLQDHDQGFRQWRUWHGEHGGLQJZHWVXUIDFHFRQ ZLWKPDULQHIRVVLOLIHURXV ÀQHJUDLQHGVHGLPHQWZKLOHFRQWL GLWLRQV WKURXJKDGKHVLRQVWUXFWXUHVELRWXUEDWLRQVWUXFWXUHV QHQWDOVDENKDVDUHLQWHUFDODWHGZLWKDQGKRVWHGLQÀQHJUDLQHG GHVLFFDWLRQFUDFNVGDPSVXUIDFHFRQGLWLRQV PHJDSRO\JRQV QRQPDULQHÁXYLRODFXVWULQHPDWULFHV%XWWKHUHLVDWKLUGVDENKD DQG6WRNHVVXUIDFHVIDOOLQJZDWHUWDEOHV WRZLQGULSSOHODPL DVVRFLDWLRQWKDWRIHROLDQVDENKDVZKHUHQRGXODUDQK\GULWHV QDWLRQGU\VXUIDFHFRQGLWLRQVVHH&KDSWHU0RXQWQH\DQG J\SVXPV DQG GLVSODFLYH KDOLWHV DUH KRVWHG LQ PXGG\ HROLDQ 7KRPSVRQ*RRGDOOHWDO 6LPLODUVHGLPHQWDU\ PDWULFHV)LJXUH (ROLDQVDENKDVFDQIRUPLQHLWKHUPDULQH VWUXFWXUHVRFFXULQFKHPLFDOO\GRPLQDWHGHROLDQVDENKDVEXW PDUJLQRUFRQWLQHQWDOODFXVWULQHVHWWLQJV,QHLWKHUVHWWLQJWKHLU WKH\WHQGWREHRYHUSULQWHGDQGGLVWXUEHGE\SHUYDVLYHFKDRWLF GHSRVLWLRQDOSUR[LPLW\WRHROLDQVDQGVPHDQVHROLDQVDENKDV VDOWVDQGDVVRFLDWHGKDORWXUEDWLRQ WHQGWREHLQWHUFDODWHGZLWKSRWHQWLDOHROLDQUHVHUYRLUVDQGFDQ IRUPODWHUDOGLVFRQWLQXLWLHVLQWKHHROLDQVDQGV)LJXUH 3UREDEO\WKHEHVWPRGHUQDUHDWRVWXG\WKHLQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV )RUWKLVUHDVRQ,KDYHEURNHQRXWPRGHUQRFFXUUHQFHVRIHROLDQ EHWZHHQHROLDQVDENKDVDQGGXQHV\VWHPVLVWKH$UDELDQ3H VDENKDVDVDVHSDUDWHWRSLF QLQVXOD)LJXUH $WOHDVWVL[JHQHUDWLRQVRIGXQHVFDQEH /RFDWLRQRIHYHQW
'DWHRIHYHQW
$QQXDODY
6WRUPUDLQIDOOPPWLPH
LGHQWLÀHGRQVDWHOOLWHLPDJHVRIWKH8QLWHG$UDE(PLUDWHVDQG 6DXGL$UDELD*OHQQLH *HRPRUSKLFUHODWLRQVLQGLFDWH
WKDW ROGHU SHULRGV RI 3OHLVWRFHQH GXQH IRUPDWLRQ KDYH EHHQ PRGLÀHGE\ODWHUSHULRGVRIHROLDQDFWLYLW\LQFOXGLQJPRGHUQ ZLQGÁ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ÀOO EHWZHHQWKHSDUWLDOO\SUHVHUYHGWRSRJUDSK\RIWKHXQGHUO\LQJ
&+$37(5
GXQHULGJHV)LJXUH+DQGIRUG %XWGXQHVDUHPHUHO\ ORRVHVHGLPHQWEORZLQJDURXQGDERYHWKHZDWHUWDEOHLIWKH GXQHVEORZRQWKHUHPDLQLQJVHGLPHQWLVKHOGLQSODFHE\WKH FDSLOODU\IULQJHDQGVRWKLVW\SHRIHROLDQVDENKDFDQKDYHD VKHHWOLNHJHRPHWU\,WDOVRPHDQVWKHHGJHVRIPDQ\DFWLYH HUJVDUHÁDWODWHUDOO\H[WHQVLYHHURVLRQDOVDQGÁDWVZLWKGHÁD WLRQOLPLWHGE\WKHWRSRIWKHFDSLOODU\IULQJH7KXVVKHHWOLNH VDQGÁDWKRVWHGVW\OHVRIHROLDQVDENKDDERXWWKHHGJHRIDVDQG VHDDUHPXFKPRUHFRPPRQSODFHLQFRQWLQHQWDOLQWHULRUVWKDQ WKHPRUHW\SLFDOO\FLWHGHORQJDWHLQWHUGXQDOVDENKDJHRPHWULHV )LJXUH (ORQJDWHLQWHUGXQDOJHRPHWULHVWHQGWREHPRVW REYLRXVZKHUHFKDQJLQJFOLPDWHRUVXEVLGHQFHSXVKHVDULVLQJ ZDWHUWDEOHDQGÁXYLDOÁ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ÁRRGLQWR DVDQGVHD
:LHTHYNPUZ^P[O LSVUNH[LLVSPHU ZHIROH[ )RU DQ HORQJDWH LQWHUGXQDO JHRPHWU\ WR EH SUHVHUYHG GXULQJ D PDULQH WUDQVJUHV VLRQUHTXLUHVUHODWLYHO\ORZ HQHUJ\LQWKH]RQHRIPDULQH HQFURDFKPHQW 2WKHUZLVH WKH HQFURDFKLQJ KLJKHQ HUJ\ FRDVWDO VKRUHIDFH ZLOO HURGH DQG WUDQVIRUP WKH GHSRVLWLRQDO VLJQDWXUH DQG GHVWUR\ DQ\ VDENKD VDOWV 7KH ODQGZDUG VLGH RI WKH EDUULHUODJRRQ QRUWKHDVW RI $EX 'KDEL LV VXFK D ORZ HQHUJ\ VHWWLQJ ORFDWHG DW WKHVDQGÁDWHGJHRIDODUJH VDQGVHDHUJ LQWKHWULDQJOH EHWZHHQ$EX'KDEL'XEDL
6$%.+$6$1'3$16
DQG$O $\Q)LJXUHVD$EX=HLGHWDO7HOOHU HWDO*OHQQLH &ORVHWRWKHFRDVWDOSODLQWKHVH GXQHVFRQWDLQDKLJKSURSRUWLRQRIPDULQHGHULYHGFDOFDUHRXV VDQGJUDLQVPLOLROLWH 7KHGXQHVZHUHDWWKHLUPRVWDFWLYHLQ WKHODWH3OHLVWRFHQHJODFLDOPD[LPXPZKHQVWURQJZLQGVEOHZ IURPWKHZHVWDFURVVWKH(DVWHUQ(PLUDWHV'XQHVXUIDFHVKDYH EHHQVXEVHTXHQWO\PRGLÀHG E\WKHPRGHUQ11:6KDPDO ZLQGV $W WKH WLPH WKH\ ZHUHDWWKHLUPRVWDFWLYHWKH RFHDQKDGUHFHGHGIURPWKH $UDELDQ*XOIDQGWKH7LJULV (XSKUDWHV 5LYHU UHDFKHG WKHVHDHDVWRIWKH6WUDLWRI +RUPX]$ORQJ WKH$W 7DI WKLV IDFLOLWDWHG WUDQVSRUW RI H[SRVHG VKHOI VHGLPHQWV LQWRDVHULHVRI(:WUHQGLQJ VHLIGXQHVDQGGUDDV7KHQ EHWZHHQ DQG ND WKH VHDWUDQVJUHVVHGPRUHWKDQ NP IURP QRUWKZHVW WRÀ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
%
WUHQGRIWKH$EX'KDELDQG$O'X \\ED\DVSLWV,QIDFWPXFK RIWKHFODVVLFVDENKDFRDVWRIWKHVRXWKHUQ$UDELDQ*XOIVKRZV EURDGVFDOHWKLFNHQLQJSDWWHUQVLQWKH+RORFHQHVHFWLRQWKDW LQGLFDWHDQLQLWLDOUHODWLYHO\SDVVLYHPDULQHHQFURDFKPHQWLQWR LQWHUGUDDGHSUHVVLRQV:DUUHQ.LUNKDP
&
?b`nk^,'.1'>qZfie^lh_fh]^kg^hebZglZ[daZl\k^Zm^][rma^?eZg]kbZgl^Ze^o^ekbl^Zg]ma^ ^g\khZ\af^gmh_Zl^ZpZm^kp^]`^bgmhpaZmp^k^_hkf^ker\hgmbg^gmZebgm^k]ngZe\hkkb]hkl':" >f[Zr^]lZ[daZ&eZ`hhgZe\hZlmebg^bgma^\hZlmZeshg^[^mp^^g:[n=aZ[bZg]KZl@aZgZ]Z% N:>';">f[Zr^]bgm^k]ngZelZ[daZlbgma^\hZlmlhnmah_Fng_Za%LZn]b:kZ[bZg\hZlmh_ma^ :kZ[bZg@ne_'qmknlbhgm^i^^4GhkmaLmkhfZmhebm^EZd^"EZr^k^]`rilnf=hf^%G^pEZd^'?"EZfbgZm^]`rilnf%FZkbhgEZd^'@"@rilbm^lhbeZmhi`rilnf]ng^%LPNO[
'
T SH`LY «JTKLW[O
/HSP[L
+LNYLLVM ,]HWVYH[PVU
7SLPZ[VJLUL YLLM[LYYHJL
'HSWKFP
$
SH`LY «JTKLW[O
6XSHUVDWXUDWLRQ
*Y`Z[HSZPaLTT
?b`nk^-'*,KZlFnaZffZ]ihhe%lhnma^kgLbgZbI^gbglneZ':"@^g^kZebl^]\khlll^\mbhgmakhn`ama^ihhelahpbg`Zlrff^mkb\Ze l^]bf^gm]blmkb[nmbhg\hgmkhee^][rshg^lh_l^^iZ`^hnmÜhp';":ggnZe[kbg^\hg\^gmkZmbhg\r\e^h_lnk_Z\^pZm^kl_hk*201 &L^ZpZm^kblngbmrhgma^]^`k^^h_\hg\^gmkZmbhgl\Ze^'k\^d EZd^\Zg[^l^^gmhma^^Zlmh_EZd^OZg'Mhma^ghkmah_EZd^OZgblma^^qmbg\mLniaZgOhe\Zgh%Z\bk\neZkohe\Zgb\fZZk pbmaZg^e^oZmbhgh_-)/*f^mk^l'!EZg]lZmbfZ`^\hnkm^lrh_G:L:"';Zmarf^mkrblbgf^mk^lZg]ma^[eZ\d\bk\e^bg]b\Zm^l ma^ihlbmbhgh_iblmhg\hk^D*)'pbmabml`^heh`rZg]\akhgheh`rbeenlmkZm^]bg?b`nk^-'+1'
6$/,1$6$1'/$.(6
(
/DNH9DQGHHSERWWRPVHGLPHQWVZHUHFROOHFWHGE\DVHULHVRI SLVWRQFRUHVLQDQGWKHUHVXOWVSXEOLVKHGLQ/DQGPDQQHW DO DQG7KLHOHWDO 7KHLUZRUNDORQJZLWKWKH UHVXOWVRIDQHDUOLHUSLVWRQFRUHVWXG\E\.HPSHDQG'HJHQV DUHVXPPDULVHGLQWKHQH[WIHZSDUDJUDSKVDQGDNH\ FRUH. LVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUH6HGLPHQWVDFFXPXODWLQJ RQWKHGHHSHUSDUWVRIWKH/DNH9DQÁRRUDUHPDLQO\GDUNFRO RXUHGFDUERQDFHRXVVLOLFHRXVFDUERQDWHODPLQLWHVPXGVWRQHV ZLWKOD\HULQJWKDWLQGLFDWHVDQQXDOGHSRVLWLRQF\FOHVDQGVR DUHWUXHYDUYHV9DUYHFRXQWVLPSO\FRUH.UHFRYHUHGVRPH \HDUVRIODNHKLVWRU\)LJXUH /LJKWHUFRORXUHG ODPLQDHLQHDFKYDUYHFRXSOHWDUHGRPLQDWHGE\PLFULWLFFDU ERQDWHDQGRSDOLQHVLOLFD'DUNHUODPLQDHDUHFKDUDFWHULVHGE\ KLJKHUDPRXQWVRIRUJDQLFPDWHULDODQGKLJKSURSRUWLRQVRI QRQFKHPLFDOGHWULWDOVHGLPHQWPDWUL[ZKLFKZDVFDUULHGLQWR WKH ODNH E\ VSULQJ PHOW ZDWHUV 'RORPLWH RFFXUV LQ YDULRXV
0DWHULDOFDXJKWLQVHGLPHQWWUDSVLQWKHFHQWUDOSDUWVRIWKHODNH VKRZWKDWPRVWRIWKHPLFULWLFFDUERQDWHLQWKHFRUHGODPLQLWH ZDVDQQXDOSUREDEO\SUHFLSLWDWHGLQWKHHYDSRUDWLYHVXUIDFH OD\HUHDFKVXPPHUWRIDOO/DQGPDQQHWDO $UDJRQLWH FDOFLWHUDWLRVGHWHUPLQHGE\;UD\GLIIUDFWLRQDQDO\VLVRQFRUH .VFDWWHUEHWZHHQDQGLQVHGLPHQWV\RXQJHUWKDQ \U%3DQGIURPWRLQROGHUVHGLPHQWV)LJXUH 7KH RWKHUPDLQFKHPLFDOFRPSRQHQWLQWKHVHGLPHQWWUDSVLVRSDOLQH VLOLFDODUJHO\GHULYHGIURPSK\WRSODQNWRQLFGLDWRPWHVWV
7RGD\ WKH ODNH ZDWHU OHYHO LV DURXQG P DVODQGÁXFWXDWHVDURXQG FP DQQXDOO\ EHLQJ ORZHVWGXULQJWKHZLQWHU 6TNS PRQWKV DQG ULVLQJ DIWHU ?b`nk^-'+/'M^fi^kZmnk^%hqr`^g Zg]ZedZebgbmrikhÛe^lbgma^EZd^ WKHVSULQJWKDZWRUHDFK OZg pZm^k \henfg !Z_m^k Mab^e ^m LWVKLJKHVWOHYHOHDFK-XO\ Ze'%*220"' )LJXUH D /RQJHU WHUPODNHOHYHOVRYHUWKH ODVWIHZGHFDGHVKDYHEHHQULVLQJDWUDWHVDVKLJKDVPSHU GHFDGHOHDGLQJWRPDMRUSUREOHPVIRUDJULFXOWXUDOLVWVZRUN LQJODQGVDERXWWKHVWUDQG]RQHRUODNHÁRRGSODLQ0LOOHQQLDO ODNH OHYHO FKDQJHV DUH HYHQ PRUH VLJQLÀFDQW 6RPH ND WKHODNHKDGGULHGLQWRDVHULHVRIVDOLQHSDQVDQGWKHZDWHU OHYHOZDVPRUHWKDQPHWUHVEHORZWKDWRIWRGD\)LJXUH E/DQGPDQQHWDO $IHZWKRXVDQG\HDUVHDUOLHU DWWKHKHLJKWRIWKHODVWJODFLDOVRPHNDWKHZDWHUOHYHOLQ /DNH9DQZDVPDERYHLWVSUHVHQWSRVLWLRQ'HJHQVHWDO 7KHUDSLGLW\RIQDWXUDOZDWHUOHYHOFKDQJHVDUHRIWKH VDPHPDJQLWXGHDVWKRVHFXUUHQWO\RFFXUULQJLQWKH'HDG6HD %DVLQ)LJXUH
+LW[OT
&RORXUVLQWKHUHFRYHUHGFRUHDUHPRVWO\GDUNDQGUDQJHIURP GDUNEURZQWRGDUNJUH\LVKJUHHQWKH\UHÁHFWODUJHO\DQR[LF GHHSZDWHU FRQGLWLRQV (K RI WR P9 ZKLFK KDYH SUHYDLOHGRQWKHVXEDTXHRXVODNHÁRRUIRUWKHODVWND$F FRUGLQJO\RUJDQLFFRQWHQWVLQWKHERWWRPVHGLPHQWVDUHKLJK WKHRUJDQLFVDUHRLOSURQHDQG72&UDQJHVXSWR7KLHO HWDO 7KHEDVHRIWKHODPLQLWHXQLWLVDWDURXQGP LQFRUH.DQGLVGHÀQHGE\DVDQG\OD\HUWKRXJKWWRLQGLFDWH WKHGUDZGRZQVWDJHLQWKHGHHSHUSDUWVRIWKHODNHVRPH ND)LJXUHE
ODPLQDEXWLVGHWULWDOQRWDXWKLJHQLFDQGFRPHVIURPHURGHG &UHWDFHRXVGRORPLWHV
3HRLSL]LST
ODNHZDWHUVKRVWDORZGL YHUVLW\ODUJHO\HQGHPLF SK\WRSODQNWRQ SRSXOD WLRQ GRPLQDWHG E\ GLD WRPV DQG F\DQREDFWHULD SULPDU\ SURGXFHUV &RSHSRGVDQGFLOLDWHVDUH WKHPDLQFRQWULEXWRUVWR WKH]RRSODQNWRQ
(S[P[\KLHIV]LTLHUZLHSL]LS
(SRHSPUP[`TLXS ;LTW*
@LHY
)
@LHYZRH
?b`nk^-'+0'PZm^ke^o^elbgEZd^OZg!OZg`hen"%Mnkd^r':" PZm^ke^o^el\aZg`^lbgma^i^kbh]*2--&*22,!Z_m^kDZ]bh`en ^mZe'%*220"';"PZm^ke^o^e\aZg`^lbgma^eZlm+)%)))r^Zkl !Z_m^kEZg]fZgg^mZe'%*22/"'
250
CHAPTER 4
The current condition of Vangolu is a useful analog for the Pleistocene freshwater stages in many of the world's soda lakes that are currently in a hypersaline (trona) stage and for many pre-Quaternary alkaline lakes. It serves as a useful analog for the laminites of High Magadi Beds of the Lake Magadi and Lake Natron and for the oil shales of the Eocene Green River Fm, USA.
A.
Age (yr BP)
B. 0
Dark brown laminite mudstone
Depth (m)
Brown laminite mudstone (2.2-2.7 m lamina indistinct) Grey laminite mudstone (3.2-2.7 m lamina indistinct)
602 1070 1960
3600 4530 5160 6110
Greenish-grey laminite mudstone
6888 7192
Brownish-grey laminite mudstone Lt.-grey lam. mdst.
8240
Grey laminite mudstone
2
2607 2820
10060
4 Age (varve kyr BP)
Brown laminite mudstone
6 8 10
10590 11730 12840
12
Lt.-bwn,. lam. mdst. Grey lam. mdst. lam. indinstinct with depth Top sandy Grey mdst.
14570
14
Water content (wt %) 60 70 80
Salda Lake, Turkey Saldagolu is another highly alkaline (pH >9) saline lake in southern Turkey, located in a collision belt at an elevation of 1139 m asl. It is bowl-shaped and occupies the lowest part of a fluvial and seepage-fed endorheic depression at the foot of the Esler Mountains. Lake waters are up to 184 metres deep and cover an area of 43.7 km2 (Figure 4.29). Lake levels rise about 50-70 cm each spring, but longterm levels are falling and have been doing so for decades exposing widespread beach-rock like terraces and stromatolites of hydromagnesite and aragonite. Inflow waters to Salda Golu are enriched in magnesium and carbonate and when compared to Lake Van are much fresher, they are even capable of supporting the local livestock. The lake drainage is rimmed on three sides by serpentinites (ophiolites) and on the fourth by a downfaulted block of Upper Cretaceous limestone. Hazburgite is the dominant country rock, though in places it has been metamorphosed to lizardite (Mg3Si2O5(OH)4) and subsidiary dunite, all Mg-rich phases. All the rivers draining into the lake follow faults, flow across peridotites, and under the lowered water levels of today are losing streams. Waters typically seeping into fan deltas or into the lake surrounds before ever reaching the strandzone of Salda Golu (Russell et al., 1999).
Accumulation Detrital sediment CH2O (wt%) (mm yr-1) SDR (nonchemical) 0.5 1.0 1.5 (kg m3 yr-1) 30 45 60 Opal (wt%) 5 10 15 CaCO3 (wt%) 0.1 0.3 0.5 12 22 32 24 36 48
0 2 4 6 8
Age (varve kyr BP)
Because present lake waters are supersaturated with respect to alkaline earth carbonates, carbonate precipitation is most obvious in the lake at positions of calcium input where fresher waters mix with more saline lake waters. This can be at the mouths of rivers, where whitings have been documented, or it can occur on the shallow lake floor down to depths of 120 metres, where the degassing of resurging calcium-rich groundwaters escaping into the lake waters creates tufa towers or pinnacles, up to 40m high. These structures constitute some of the largest active microbialite buildups in the world today (Kempe et al., 1991). Lake Van does suffer from severe winters, but these aragonite/calcite tufa samples described by Kempe et al. (1991) were collected in the summer. The possibility of primary ikaite was not considered. So, it not known if some of the initial tufa in Lake Van was once ikaite, which then converted to CaCO3. A textural comparison with similar structures in Mono Lake suggests this may be so, especially in older colder stages in the lake history.
10 12 14
Figure 4.28. Lake Van Core K10 (see figure 4.25 for location. A) Laminite lithology plotted against depth and varve-determined ages. B) Core properties plotted against varve determined time. SDR = rate of sediment deposition. Opal is dominantly from diatom tests and CaCO3 is mostly from aragonite with lesser calcite (after Landmann et al., 1996).
6$/,1$6$1'/$.(6
uijdl!ufssbdf
0DJQHVLXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DYHUDJHVSSPLQZHOOV 3:¢51Ö DQGFROGVSULQJVLQWKHODNH Opsui 3:¢51Ö VXUURXQGV WHPSHUDWXUHV UDQJH XS WR & DQG S+ OLHV LQ WKH UDQJH %UDLWKZDLWH DQG =HGHI Qfsfoojbm 6RGLXP OHYHOV LQ Tbmeb mblf!xbufst WKH JURXQGZDWHUV RI WKH mtu/ ODNHVXUURXQGVDUHORZ§ SSP DV DUH PRVW RWKHU Izespnbhoftjuf LRQVZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRI dfnfoufe!gbo!efmub +&2,QFRQWUDVWODNHZD 21!ln WHUVFRQWDLQSSPRI0J DQGSSPRI1DGRZQWR DGHSWKRIPHWUHVZLWK ?b`nk^-'+2'LZe]ZEZd^%Mnkd^r':i^k^ggbZe\Zk[hgZm^ik^\bibmZmbg`eZd^%\nkk^gmerZ\\nfneZm& bg` ar]khfZ`g^lbm^ Zg] ZkZ`hgbm^' Ma^ eZd^ bl [^lm dghpg _hk ma^ ln[Zjn^hnl lmkhfZmhebm^l DS+DURXQG0JLQWKH Z\\nfneZmbg`[ZlbgpZk]h_ar]khfZ`g^lbm^lmkZg]ebg^m^kkZ\^l%pbmafhlmikhebÛ\h\\nkk^g\^l ODNHKDVLQFUHDVHGE\DIDF bg]b\Zm^][rmkbZg`e^l!_hk]^mZbehgma^lmkhfZmhebm^ll^^ALYXH4HPU RXVDQGSHUPDQHQWEULQHFRYHUHGZDWHUERG LHVWKH1RUWKHUQDQG6RXWKHUQEDVLQVODUJHO\ .LKP /`KYVNYHWOPJ :WYPUNZ VHSDUDWHGE\DGLDSLUFRUHGVKDOORZVLOOWKH Z[H[PVU,. /LVDQULGJHDQGMRLQHGDWWKH/LVDQ6WUDLWV %XWFRQWLQXLQJIDOOLQJZDWHUOHYHOVPHDQVWKDW 4\QPI9P]LY WRGD\WKH1RUWK%DVLQLVWKHRQO\SHUPDQHQW QDWXUDO ZDWHU PDVV ZLWK ZDWHUV VRPH PGHHS)LJXUHD 7KH6RXWKHUQ%DVLQ 5 LVWRGD\DVDOLQHSDQPXGÁDWZKLFKZRXOG EHDVXEDHULDOO\H[SRVHGSODLQH[FHSWWKDW AVOHY EULQHÀOOHGVDOWZRUNVQRZFRYHUPXFKRIWKH :WYPUNZ >2HYHR IRUPHU6RXWKHUQ%DVLQODNH3HUHQQLDOEULQH VKHHWVDUHDUWLÀFLDOO\PDLQWDLQHGLQWKHVHSDQV 3PZHU:[YHP[Z E\FRQWLQXDOO\SXPSLQJRIEULQHVIURPWKH 1RUWKHUQ%DVLQ)LJXUH :V\[OLYU )HZPU
4[ :LKVT
9LNPVU\UKLYSHPU I`ZOHSSV^ OHSVRPUL[PJZHS[ *VU[V\YZPU TL[YLZILSV^ZS
?b`nk^-'-)'=^Z]L^Z]^ik^llbhg%Fb]]e^>Zlm':"=^Z]L^ZOZee^r'BfZ`^h_ ma^]^ik^llbhgbgma^^Zker*22)l%lahpbg`ma^=^Z]L^Zl^iZkZm^]bgmhZ]^^i Ghkma^kg;Zlbgl^iZkZm^][rma^EblZgLmkZbml_khfma^Lhnma^kg;Zlbgpbmabml lheZkihg]l'Ma^Chk]ZgKbo^k^gm^klma^=^Z]L^ZZmbmlghkma^kg^g]'L^Zh_ @Zebe^^bloblb[e^bgma^ghkma^kg^g]h_bfZ`^!BfZ`^\hnkm^lrh_G:L:"';" ;Zmarf^mkrh_eZd^Ühhkbgf^mk^l[^ehpl^Ze^o^e%ma^[Zlbglahpl>&P[Zlbg Zlrff^mkrpbmaZlhf^paZmlm^^i^k^Zlm^kgfZk`bg'
7KH EDVLQ ÁRRU EHQHDWK WKH ZDWHUV RI WKH 1RUWKHUQ%DVLQLVDV\PPHWULFZLWKWKHZHVW HUQVORSHVDURXQGDQGWKHHDVWHUQVORSHV DERXW7KHQRUWKHUQSDUWRIWKH1RUWKHUQ %DVLQLVÁDWWHUDQGVPRRWKHUWKDQHLWKHULWV HDVWHUQ DQG ZHVWHUQ VORSHV DQG LV FRYHUHG E\GHOWDLFFOD\VRIWKH-RUGDQ5LYHURXWIDOO )LJXUHD $ZD\IURPWKHQRUWKHUQVORSH WKHRXWÁRZ]RQHVRIWKHYDULRXVVWUHDPVDQG
6$/,1$6$1'/$.(6
:HVWHUQ %RXQGDU\ )DXOW
1VYKHU 9P]LY
>LZ[ 0ZYHLS
0:9(,3
+LHK: LH
169+(5
*VSSHWZLK 4HYNPU
:LKVT KPHWPYPZT
$UDYD IDXOW
RT RT
(Z`TTL[Y`
RT
5VY[O
(
+,(+:,(
,HZ[ 1VYKHU
+LHK:LHKLWVZP[Z 3PZHU- (TVYH-T :LKVT-TZHS[ 3PKV-T ;LY[PHY` VSKLY
)
?b`nk^-'-*'=^Z]L^Z%Fb]]e^>Zlm':"IeZgob^plahpma^eh\Zmbhgh_ma^=^Z]L^Z]^ik^llbhgbgk^eZmbhgfZchkmkZglm^glbhgZe _Znembg`';"L\a^fZmb\\khlll^\mbhgh_eZd^`^heh`rlahpbg`ma^bfihkmZg\^h_ln[lb]^g\^%bgk^eZmbhgmhlZemm^\mhgb\lZg] lmkbd^&lebi_ZnemlZl\hgmkhelhgl^]bf^gm]blmkb[nmbhgbgma^]^ik^llbhg!bgiZkmZ_m^kSZd%*21)"'
ZDGLVDUHGHÀQHGE\ORFDOFODVWLFDSURQVRUIDQGHOWDVPRVWRI ZKLFKDUHQRZ´KXQJµLQUHVSRQVHWRWKHORZHUHGODNHOHYHOV )LJXUHD
.LVSVNPJHS:L[[PUN 7KH'HDG6HDGHSUHVVLRQLVDODUJHVWULNH²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k`^gsbg`^k%+))+4:[n&CZ[Zk%*2214DZk\s%*210"'
GHSRVLWHG )LJXUH 7KH 3OHLVWRFHQH$PRUD )P LQ WKH UHJLRQRIWKH'HDG6HDLVDÁXYLRODFXVWULQHFKDON\PDUOZLWK HQWUDLQHGJ\SVXPDQK\GULWHVDQGVFRQJORPHUDWHVDQGWKLQ KDOLWHOD\HUV7KHRYHUO\LQJ/LVDQ6DPUD)PZDVGHSRVLWHGLQ WKHODVWODUJHODNHWKDWÀOOHGWKHPDMRULW\RIWKH'HDG6HD-RUGDQ 5LIW9DOOH\GXULQJWKHODWHU3OHLVWRFHQH,WFRQVLVWVPRVWO\RI ÀQHO\OD\HUHGPDUOVODPLQLWHVDQGFKDONVZLWKJ\SVXPLQLWV PRUHHYDSRULWLFSRUWLRQV 8QOLNHWKHPDULQHLVRWRSLFVLJQDWXUHVRIWKHVDOWVLQWKH6HGRP )RUPDWLRQLVRWRSHVLQWKHHYDSRULWHVRIWKHYDULRXV3OHLVWRFHQH VHTXHQFHVLQGLFDWHWKHLUSUHFLSLWDWLRQIURPODFXVWUDO&D&OULFK FRQQDWHEULQHV*URXQGZDWHULQÁRZFKHPLVWULHVZHUHFUHDWHG E\URFNZDWHULQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKDQRULJLQDOFRQQDWHVHDZDWHU EULQHVÀUVWWUDSSHGLQVHGLPHQWVRIWKHULIWZDOOVLQ´6HGRP WLPHµ5DDEHWDO $IWHUWKHÀQDO3OLRFHQHGLVFRQQHFWLRQ IURPWKHVHDDQGDORZHULQJRIWKHODNHOHYHOVWKHVHUHVLGXDO EULQHVJUDGXDOO\VHHSHGDQGOHDFKHGEDFNLQWRWKH6HGRPEDVLQ 7KHUHZDVQHYHUDK\GURJUDSKLFFRQQHFWLRQRIWKH'HDG6HDWR WKH*XOIRI$TDEDLQWKHVRXWKDQGDOORIWKH3OHLVWRFHQHVDOWV LQ WKH GHSUHVVLRQ FRPH IURP WKH HYDSRUDWLRQ RI FRQWLQHQWDO JURXQGZDWHUVQRWIURPRQJRLQJPDULQHIHGVHHSDJH1HRJHQH SDUWVRIWKHLQWHUYHQLQJULIWYDOOH\ZHUHDOZD\VDERYHVHDOHYHO DQGHYHQWRGD\WKH$UDYD9DOOH\LVFKDUDFWHULVHGE\ULGJHVXS WRPHWUHVDERYHVHDOHYHOLQWKH*XOIRI$TDED 7KHUDSLGDFFXPXODWLRQRI$PRUDDQG6DPUDVHGLPHQWVZLWKLQ DVXEVLGLQJDQGH[WHQGLQJYDOOH\DWRSWKLFNEHGGHGHYDSRULWHV RIWKH6HGRP)PLQLWLDWHGVHYHUDOVDOWGLDSLUVDORQJWKHYDOOH\ ÁRRUWKHEHVWNQRZQEHLQJ0W6HGRP)LJXUHE/DUVHQ HWDO 7KH0RXQW6HGRPGLDSLUKDVSLHUFHGWKHVXUIDFH DWRSDPKLJKVDOWZDOO7KURXJKRXWWKH+RORFHQHVDOWKDV
EHHQULVLQJLQ0W6HGRPDWDUDWHRIPPD)UXPNLQ D
>H[LYSL]LSJOHUNLZ 7KHKLJKHVWUHFRUGHGOHYHORIWKH'HDG6HDPDVO ZDV UHDFKHGLQWKHV)LJXUHD VLQFHWKHQWKHODNHOHYHO KDVEHHQGHFUHDVLQJDQGWRGD\LVDURXQGPDVODQGVWLOO IDOOLQJ$WWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHIDOOLQJZDWHUVUHDFKHG DOHYHORIPDVOZKLFKGULHGRXWWKH/LVDQ6WUDLWVDQG GLYLGHGWKHZDWHUFRYHUHGDUHDRIWKH'HDG6HDLQWRVHSDUDWH 1RUWKHUQDQG6RXWKHUQEDVLQV)LJXUHD 6LQFHWKH VXUIDFHOHYHORIWKH'HDG6HDKDVEHHQIDOOLQJDWDUDWH§ FP\HDU7KHODNHZDWHUVXUIDFHUHDFKHGPPVO LQ DQGIURPWRWKHORZHULQJUDWHUHDFKHGFP\HDU 6LQFHWKHVWKHWUHQGRIZDWHUOHYHOVLQWKH'HDG6HDODNH KDVEHHQIDOOLQJRU´GURXJKW\µ)LJXUHD ,QD´GURXJKW\µ \HDUWKHWRWDOOHYHOULVHLQZLQWHULVVPDOOHUWKDQWKH\HDUO\GURS DQGLQD´UDLQ\µ\HDUODUJHU)RUH[DPSOHLQWKHGURXJKW\SHULRG ²WKHQHWOHYHOGURSLQZDWHUOHYHOLQHYHU\VLQJOH \HDULVLQWKHUDQJH²FP\Uï)LJXUHE$QDWL ohenmbhgh_=^Z]L^ZlmkZmbÛ\Zmbhgbgma^i^kbh] *2.2&*202lahpbg`ma^ehllh_[kbg^lmkZmbÛ\ZmbhgobZe^ll^gbg` h__k^la^g^]bgÜhp_khfChk]ZgKbo^kZg]^gmkrh_[kbg^pZlm^ _khflhnma'Mablk^lnem^]bgbg\k^Zl^]lZebgbmrh_lnk_Z\^pZm^kl% Z]^^i^gbg`h_ma^aZeh\ebg^Zg]ÛgZe^jnZeblZmbhgh_]^glbmb^l h_ma^mphfZll^lZg]ma^bkho^kmnkgbg*202'
*LYHQ WKH PDUNHG IDOO LQ EULQH OHYHO RYHU WKH ODVW \HDUV bg@^]b%obeeZ`^eh\Zm^]hgZ aZg`bg`_Zg]^emZh_EZm^Ie^blmh\^g^Z`^Zg]bl^ob]^g\^h_ ab`a^keZd^e^o^elZmmaZmmbf^';"BgmkZl^]bf^gm`rilnfkhl^`khpbg`bg[hmmhfl^]bf^gmbg[kbg^]^imalh_fhk^maZg+)) f^mk^l';kbg^lfZr[^lniieb^]_khf[kbg^ienf^l_khf]bllheobg`lZem]bZibk\k^lml'HKP 4\QPI
4HZHKH 3:4 3PZHU 7LUPUZ\SH
5
3HRL3PZHU )V\UKHY`
»,
RT
? b ` n k ^ - ' . + ' > q m ^ g m h _ Ie^blmh\^g^ EZd^ EblZg bg ma^ =^Z]L^ZmkZgl_hkf'Ihlbmbhgl h_ lbm^l ELF* Zg] ELF+ Zk^ bg]b\Zm^]!l^^Û`nk^-'.._hk ]^mZbe"'
&+$37(5
/DQGPDQQHWDO
"
%DUWRYHWDO
"
/DNHOHYHOPEHORZVHDOHYHO
"
6HH )LJ G
" " " WRPDVO"
oZihkbm^]blmkb[nmbhg&fh]^kgZg]Zg\b^gm':":^kbZe^qm^gmh_JnZm^kgZkrZg]Zg\b^gm^oZihkbm^l^mmbg`l!bgiZkm Z_m^kCZf^lZg]D^g]Zee%*22+4PZkk^g*222"';":k^ZZg]mab\dg^llh_JnZm^kgZkrZg]Zg\b^gm^oZihkbm^l!Z_m^kA^k]^g]hk_% *21-4AZk]b^%*22)4PZkk^g%*222"Ghm^maZmma^l\Ze^bl^qihg^gmbZe%ghmebg^Zk'
&+$37(5
$UHD NP
/RFDOLW\
$JH
(YDSRULWHVW\OH
5HIHUHQFHV
&RQWLQHQWDO 6DODUGH8\XQL
%ROLYLD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
5LVDFKHUDQG)ULW]
/DNH(\UH
$XVWUDOLD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
$OOH\0DJHHHWDO
*UHDW6DOW/DNH
86$
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
(DUGOH\6SHQFHUHWDO
4DLGDP%DVLQ
&KLQD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
6FKXEHODQG/RZHQVWHLQ
/DNH7RUUHQV
$XVWUDOLD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
6FKPLGDE:LOOLDPVHWDO
/DNH8UPLD
,UDQ
4XDWHUQDU\
EULQHODNH
.HOWVDQG6KDKUDEL
&KRWW'MHULG
7XQLVLD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
%U\DQWHWDODE*XHGGDUL
/DNH*DLUGQHU
$XVWUDOLD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
+HUGHQGRUI-RKQV
/DNH&KDGVDOLQH
&KDG
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
(XJVWHUDQG0DJOLRQH0DJOLRQH
9DQ*ROX7XUNH\
7XUNH\
4XDWHUQDU\
EULQHODNH
+HUGHQGRUI.LSIHUHWDO
6DODUGH$WDFDPD
&KLOH
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
$OVRQVRDQG5LVDFKHU
/RS1RU
&KLQD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
+HUGHQGRUI
/DNH)URPH
$XVWUDOLD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
1DQVRQHWDO
6DODUGH&RLSDVD
%RORYLD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
5LVDFKHUDQG)ULW]
7X]*ROX
7XUNH\
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
%UDLWKZDLWHDQG=HGHI
&KDUKDQPDUVK
&KLQD
4XDWHUQDU\
VDOLQHSDQWRPXGIODW
&KHQDQG%RZOHUH[LYJVS\TUPZZ\WLYZH[\YH[LK^P[OYLZWLJ[[V )V[[VTU\JSLH[LK FRDUVHO\ FU\VWDOOLQH DQG ODPLQDWHG ZHS[VMPU[LYLZ[HSS[OL^H`[V[OLHPYIYPULPU[LYMHJL PUJS\ZPVUWVVYJVHYZL ([TVZ[JVS\TUPZVJJHZPVUHSS`SH`LYLK HYDSRULWH VHTXHQFHV PHDQV ZDWHU WYPZTTLZO^VYRZ GHSWKGHWHUPLQDWLRQVDUHGLIÀFXOWLQ :367, :(3;,95 )(:05 DQFLHQW VORSH DQG EDVLQ HYDSRULWHV 9DU\LQJ LQWHQVLWLHV RI GUDZGRZQ ?b`nk^ .'/' =^ihlbmbhgZe l^mmbg` Zg] \aZkZ\m^kblmb\l h_ ]^^i pZm^k ^oZihkbm^l' :" DV HYDSRULWHV DFFXPXODWH LQ D EDVLQ =^ihlbmbhgZeli^\mknfZ\\nfneZmbg`[^g^Zma]^^iZg]eZr^k^][kbg^l';"=^ihlbmbhgZe li^\mknfZ\\nfneZmbg`[^g^ZmaZ]^^iahehfb\mb\Zg]lZmnkZm^][kbg^\henfg!l^^ FHQWUHSOD\VKDYRFZLWKWKHDVVXPS (;,9 +,,7)(:05
(
J\T\SH[LZSHTPUP[LZHUK NYH]P[`KPZWSHJLKKLWVZP[Z
WLYPVKPJV]LYMSV^ :3 *VU[PULU[HS NYV\UK^H[LYPUMSV^
L
WHN
WKDWSDVVHVXSZDUGDFURVVDGLVFRQIRUPLW\ RUXQFRQIRUPLW\LQWRDOWHUQDWLQJVWDFNHG VDOWHUQDQGGHHSHUZDWHUHYDSRULWHV1RU PDOPDULQHSHODJLFVZHUHGHSRVLWHGEHIRUH WKHEDVLQGHSUHVVLRQZDVK\GURJUDSKLFDOO\ LVRODWHGIURPWKHRFHDQDQGFDQUHWXUQWR GRPLQDWHWKHEDVLQÀOOLIDK\GURJUDSKLF FRQQHFWLRQLVUHHVWDEOLVKHG7KHWUDQVLWLRQ IURPDGHHSHUPDULQHEDVLQWRHYDSRULWLF FDQEHPDUNHGE\RUJDQLFULFKUHVWULFWHG PDULQHLQIOXHQFHG GHSRVLWV )LJXUHV %DVLQPDUJLQUHJLRQVFDQFRQ WDLQ UHHIDO GHSRVLWV IURP WKH SUHFHGLQJ PDULQHSKDVH
6KDOORZHUZDWHUGHHSEDVLQÀOOVGRPLQDWH WKHHYDSRULWHÀOOLQPDQ\PDULQHIHGULIW :033 VXFFHVVLRQVVXFKDVWKH$SWLDQ6RXWK$W :HS[LYUHUKT\KMSH[^P[O ) VJJHZPVUHSKLLWLYKLWYLZZPVUZ ODQWLF6DOW%DVLQ7KLFNVDOWVSUHFLSLWDWHG DWRS DQ HQGRUKHLF ULIW YDOOH\ ÁRRU WKDW ZDV KXQGUHGV RI PHWUHV EHORZ VHDOHYHO 6]DWPDUL 8QOLNH WKH UHODWLYHO\ 7YVNYHKPUN VPDOOYROXPHVRIPDULQHIHGVDOWVEHLQJ T\KMSH[ IYPULSL]LS GHSRVLWHGLQWRGD\·VEHVWH[DPSOHRIDVKDO ORZZDWHUGHHSEDVLQPDULQHIHGULIW/DNH :/(336>>(;,9 :/(336>)(:05 :HS[LYU $VDOGHSUHVVLRQ)LJXUH WKHYROXPHV * RIVDOWGHSRVLWHGLQDQFLHQWULIWVDJVFRXOG EHKXJH&RQVLGHUWKHZHGJHVKDSHGERG\ ?b`nk^ .'+/' ;Zlbgpb]^ ^oZihkbm^ l^mmbg`l% l^^ ?b`nk^ .'/ _hk fhk^ ]^mZbe hg RI8SSHU$SWLDQVDOWWKDWZDVGHSRVLWHG .'+/Z%pab\ahgerk^ik^l^gmlma^f^khfb\mb\lmZ`^!fh]bÛ^]_khfPZkk^g%*2124 LQWKH6RXWK$WODQWLF6DOW%DVLQDV$IULFD D^g]Zee%*22+"' VHSDUDWHG IURP 6RXWK $PHULFD DERXW D URWDWLRQDO SROH LQ 1( %UD]LO 6]DWPDUL 7KH VKDOORZHU ZDWHU²GHHS EDVLQ VHTXHQFH LV GRPLQDWHG E\ VKDOORZZDWHUHYDSRULWHVGHSRVLWHGDVVWDFNHGVDOWHUQWRPXGÁ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ÁRRUVRPHNP VXWXUH FROOLVLRQ EHOWV DQG VRPH LQWUDFRQWLQHQWDO ULIWV 7KLV EHORZVHDOHYHO0DULQHÁRRGLQJHQGHGWKHGHSUHVVLRQ·VLVRODWLRQ VW\OHRIHYDSRULWHÀOOLVRIWHQLQWLPDWHO\UHODWHGWRWKHGHHSHU IURPWKHVHDLQWKHODWH$SWLDQ,WUHTXLUHGQHDUO\RQHPLOOLRQ ZDWHUGHHSEDVLQVW\OHRIGHSRVLWVDQGLQGLFDWHVDPRUHDULG FXELFNLORPHWUHVRIZDWHUWRÀOOWKHGHSUHVVLRQWRVHDOHYHODQ SHULRGLQWKHVDPHGHSRVLWLRQDOEDVLQ7KDWLVLWVK\GURORJLFDO HYHQWWKDWZRXOGKDYHFDXVHGDJHRORJLFDOO\LQVWDQWDQHRXVGURS HTXLOLEULXPLVUHDFKHGZKHQPXFKVKDOORZHUZDWHUVFRYHUWKH RIPLQJOREDOVHDOHYHO6]DWPDUL EDVLQFHQWUHDQGWKHUHDUHPDQ\WRSRJUDSKLFDOO\GHHSHYDSRULWH 7KHVKDOORZHUZDWHU²VKDOORZEDVLQDVVRFLDWLRQIRUPVXQGHU EDVLQVZKHUHGHHSHUÀOOVDOWHUQDWHZLWKVKDOORZHUÀOOV FRQGLWLRQVRIRQJRLQJVXEVLGHQFHZKHUHWKHUDWHRIHYDSRULWH ,QWKHFROOLVLRQVHWWLQJWKHXQGHUO\LQJEDVLQFHQWUHVXFFHVVLRQ DJJUDGDWLRQNHHSVSDFHZLWKWHFWRQLFVXEVLGHQFH)LJXUHF LVW\SLFDOO\DGHHSPDULQHVHGLPHQWRIWHQDSHODJLFFDUERQDWH 7KHEDVLQGHSRVLWLRQDOVHWWLQJVWDUWVRIIVKDOORZDQGUHPDLQV VKDOORZWKURXJKRXWWKHGHSRVLWLRQRIWKHHYDSRULWHVHTXHQFH :/(336>,9>(;,9 +,,7)(:05
IYPULSL]LS
ZLL
$1&,(17(9$325,7(6
6HGLPHQWDU\VLJQDWXUHVDUHGRPLQDWHGE\LQWHUÀQJHULQJVDOWHUQ VDOLQHSDQDQGPXGÁDWVXFFHVVLRQVRIWHQFURVVFXWE\NDUVWLF HURVLRQDOVXUIDFHV7KHUHLVOLWWOHRUQRHYLGHQFHRIGHHSHUZDWHU HYDSRULWHV6KDOORZZDWHU²VKDOORZEDVLQHYDSRULWHVDUHW\SLFDO RILQWUDFUDWRQLFVDJÀOOVVXFKDVLQWKH:LOOLVWRQ%DVLQLQWKH 86$DQGWKH6LOXULDQ2UGRYLFLDQ&DQQLQJ%DVLQLQ$XVWUDOLD 6DOWEHGVLQLQWUDFUDWRQLFÀOOVDUHW\SLFDOO\LQWHUFDODWHGZLWK VKDOORZZDWHURSHQPDULQHFDUERQDWHVDQGVLOLFLFODVWLFVDQG WHQG WR IRUP VWDFNHG F\FOLF XQLWV ZLWK WKLFNQHVVHV EHWZHHQ PDQGPXQOLNHWKHWKLFNULIWDQGFROOLVLRQVXFFHVVLRQV ! P WKLFN 8VLQJ GDWD IURP RQH RU WZR ZHOOV LW FDQ EH YHU\ GLIÀFXOW WR GLVWLQJXLVK LQWUDFUDWRQLF EDVLQZLGH HYDSRULWHVIURPPDULQHPDUJLQSODWIRUPHYDSRULWHV7KHGLV WLQFWLRQUHTXLUHVDWKRURXJKNQRZOHGJHRIWKHEDVLQ·VWHFWRQLF KLVWRU\DQGDUFKLWHFWXUHDQGLVRIWHQEHVWUHVROYHGXVLQJUHJLRQDO VHLVPLFDQGZHOOGDWD7KLVVW\OHRIGHSRVLWLRQDOVRGRPLQDWHV WKHODWHUVWDJHVRIEDVLQLQÀOOLQZKDWZHUHSUHYLRXVO\GHHS K\GURJUDSKLFDOO\LVRODWHGHYDSRULWHEDVLQVDVGHVFULEHGLQWKH RWKHUWZRPHPEHUVRIWKLVFODVVLÀFDWLRQ
PRVWEDVLQZLGHORZVWHQGWREHPDLQWDLQHGE\DFRQWLQXRXV LQÁRZRIPDULQHJURXQGZDWHUVLQWRWHFWRQLFGHSUHVVLRQVPD ULQHIHGK\GURORJLFDOV\VWHPV 7KLVK\GURORJ\LVFUHDWHGLQ DQDULGVHWWLQJZKHUHYHUWHFWRQLFDOO\GULYHQVXEVLGHQFHPRYHV WKHEDVLQÁRRUWRVXEVHDOHYHOHOHYDWLRQVZLWKRXWDOORZLQJD VXUIDFHFRQQHFWLRQWRWKHRSHQRFHDQ %DVLQZLGHHYDSRULWHVW\OHFKDQJHVDVFRQWLQHQWVDFFUHWHDQG VXWXUH7KHYDULRXVVDOWÀ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
,QUHDOLW\LQWHUSUHWLQJEDVLQÀOOLQJHYDSRULWHVLVQHYHUDVVLPSOH QRUDVSUHGLFWDEOHDVDWKUHHHQGPHPEHUFODVVLÀFDWLRQVXJJHVWV &DUERQLIHURXVEDVLQZLGHHYDSRULWHVZHUHSUHFLSLWDWHGLQWKH &KDQJHVLQEULQHOHYHOVXEVLGHQFHUDWHVRUFOLPDWHSOD\KDYRF :LOOLVWRQ%DVLQDQGQRUWKHUQ(OOHVPHUHUHJLRQLQ1RUWK$PHULFD ZLWKDVLPSOHWULSDUWLWHEUHDNGRZQRIHYDSRULWHEDVLQV:DWHU LQQRUWKHUQ%UD]LO1RUWK$IULFDWKH(DVW(XURSHDQ3ODWIRUP GHSWKVLQDQHYDSRULWHEDVLQDUHQHYHUFRQVWDQWWKH\ULVHDQGIDOO DQG.D]DNKVWDQ7UDSSH (DUO\3HUPLDQHYDSRULWHEDVLQV LQUHVSRQVHWRLQWHQVLW\RIWHFWRQLVPFOLPDWHVHDOHYHOFKDQJH IRUPDEURDGEHOWDORQJZHVWHUQ3DQJDHDEXWDOVRLQQRUWKHDVWHUQ SOD\DFDSWXUHDQGDVVRFLDWHGFKDQJHVLQWKHGHJUHH RIVHHSDJHHYDSRUDWLRQLQWHQVLW\DQGVXUIDFHUXQRII /DWH3DODHR]RLF 3HQQV\OYDQLDQFROOLVLRQRI/DXUXVVLD.D]DNKVWDQLDDQG LQWKHLQÁRZ]RQHV%DVLQZLGHSURYLQFHVVXFKDV IRUPDWLRQRI3DQJHDQ 6LEHULDWRIRUP/DXUDVLD§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ÀOOFDQFRQWDLQH[DPSOHVRI 0HVR]RLFEUHDNXSRI %UHDNXSRI3DQJHD DOOWKUHHHQGPHPEHUV 3DQJHDQVXSHUFRQ WLQHQW
;LJ[VUPJZ[`SLZ 7KURXJKRXW HDUWK KLVWRU\ EDVLQZLGHV WHQG WR DF FXPXODWH LQ WKUHH WHFWRQLF VHWWLQJV $UHDV RI ULIWLQJFRQWLQHQWDOSODWHV $UHDVRIFRQYHUJLQJ FRQWLQHQWDO SODWHV FROOLVLRQ EHOWV $UHDV RI LQWUDFRQWLQHQWDORULQWUDSODWHVDJVZKLFKDUHRIWHQ WKHUHVXOWRIIDUÀHOGSODWHVWUHVVLQGXFHGE\FRQWLQHQ WDORURJHQ\DFWLQJRQ]RQHVRISUHH[LVWLQJFUXVWDO ZHDNQHVVVXFKDVDQROGULIWEHOWRUIRUHODQGGHSUHV VLRQ7DEOH)LJXUH (YDSRUDWLQJEULQHVLQ
0D1HZDUNDQGRWKHUULIWEDVLQVLQQRUWKHDVW 1RUWK$PHULFDDQGQRUWKZHVW$IULFD 0D2SHQLQJRI1HR7HWK\V 0D6HSDUDWLRQRI6RXWK$PHULFDIURP$IULFDRSHQLQJ RIVRXWK$WODQWLF %UHDNXSRI*RQGZDQDDVLWXQ]LSVDURXQG$QWDUFWLFD 0D5LIWLQJRI$IULFDIURP$QWDUFWLFD 0D6HSDUDWLRQRI,QGLDIURP$QWDUFWLFD 0D6HSDUDWLRQRI$XVWUDOLDIURP$QWDUFWLFD 0D6HSDUDWLRQRI1HZ=HDODQGIURP$QWDUFWLFD %UHDNXSRI/DXUDVLD 0D2SHQLQJRIWKHQRUWK$WODQWLFEHWZHHQ1RUWK $PHULFDDQG(XUDVLD*UHHQODQG
MZ[e^ .'0' Mbfbg` h_ ma^ Zll^f[er Zg] ]blZll^f[er h_ ma^ IZg`^Zg lni^k\hgmbg^gm'
&+$37(5
*VU[PULU[HSSHJ\Z[YPULL]HWVYP[LZ 8\H[LYUHY`^P[OHUJPLU[JV\U[LYWHY[Z
-LSZPJIH[OVSP[OZMYVTMYHJ[PVUHS TLS[PUNVMSV^LYJVU[PULU[HSJY\Z[
/V[:WV[;OLYTHS+VTPUN THYPULZLLWHNLUV[WVZZPISL >PSZVUJ`JSLZ[HNL)
:[HNL*VU[PULU[*VU[PULU[ *VSSPZPVU
*VU[PULU[HS;LYYHJL OPUNLaVUL
(_PHSYPM[ Z\IZLHSL]LSZLLWHNLIHZPU
ZLHSL]LS
:[HNL) ,HYS`YPM[PUN
>03:65 *@*3,
:[HNL, *SVZPUN9LTUHU[ 6JLHU)HZPU
4HYPULTHYNPUYPM[L]HWVYP[LZ (\SVJVNLUHUKPU[YHJYH[VUPJZHN 5V8\H[LYUHY`JV\U[LYWHY[Z 24
0ZVSH[LK Z\ IZL *VU HSL
5VYTHSMH\S[Z
ZLHSL]LS
:[HNL+ :\IK\J[PVUAVUL 6JLHUILNPUZ[VJSVZL
(SS\]PHSMHUHUK SHRLKLWVZP[Z
HWHY[
/VYZ[ .YHILU
Y [Z MH ULU U[P *V
2T
:[HNL( :[HISLJYH[VU :[HNL. 7LULWSHPULK [PULU[ WYV_PTP[ ` TV\U[HPUZ [VJVU [ PUZ WVZ LU NL IHZ ZPI [PU ZLLWH SL SL ]
=VSJHUV!THMPJPMMYVTOV[ZWV[ -LSZPJPMMYVTTLS[PUNVMJVU[PULU[HSJY\Z[
:[HNL* -\SS6JLHUIHZPU
: L H 3 L ] L S )YPULSL]LS
-V\UKLYPUNVM9PM[=HSSL` 4HYPUL0U]HZPVUMPYZ[]PHZLLWHNLZWPSSV]LY >PSZVUJ`JSLZSH[LYZ[HNL)HUKLHYS`*
*VU[PULU[HSSHJ\Z[YPULL]HWVYP[LZ 8\H[LYUHY`^P[OHUJPLU[JV\U[LYWHY[Z :[YPRLZSPW )HZPU
*VU[PULU[HSSHJ\Z[YPULL]HWVYP[LZ 8\H[LYUHY`^P[OHUJPLU[JV\U[LYWHY[Z
)HJRHYJ THYNPUHS IHZPU
*VSSPZPVUHUKVYZHNILS[IHJRI\SNLL]HWVYP[LZ 5V8\H[LYUHY`JV\U[LYWHY[Z
/PU[LYSHUK [OY\Z[Z
=VSJHUPJMYVU[
:\[\YLAVUL
-VYLSHUKIHZPU Z\IZLHSL]LS
2T ZLHSL]LS
NYLLUZJOPZ[ HTWOPIVSP[L
NYHU\SP[L
;YHUZ[LUZPVUHSVY[YHUZWYLZZPVUHSIHZPU VM[LU[PLK[V>PSZVU*`JSLZ[HNL-
(UJPLU[JVU[PULU[HSTHYNPU ZLKPTLU[^LKNL[OY\Z[ MH\S[LKHUKMVSKLK
(UJPLU[ H_PHSNYHILU
*VU[PULU[*VU[PULU[*VSSPZPVU THYPULZLLWHNLPZWVZZPISL >PSZVUJ`JSLZ[HNLZ, -
?b`nk^.'+0'M^\mhgb\l^mmbg`lh_[Zlbgpb]^^oZihkbm^]^ihlbmbhgbgma^iZlm!gh\nkk^gm\hngm^kiZkml"Zg]JnZm^kgZkrl^mmbg` h_eZk`^\hgmbg^gmZe^oZihkbm^[Zlbglbgma^_kZf^phkdh_ma^Pbelhg\r\e^!lmZ`^l:&@"'Lmkbd^&lebi[ZlbglZk^Zllh\bZm^]pbma eh\Zek^Z]cnlmf^gmlmhlmk^ll^l\k^Zm^][rieZm^lfhobg`iZlm^Z\ahma^k'>oZihkbm^l\Zghger_hkfbgar]kh`kZiab\ZeerblheZm^] !mrib\Zeer^g]hka^b\"^gobkhgf^gmlZg]lh]hghm_hkfbghi^gfZkbg^lmZ`^lPU
7PZVSP[PJNYH]LSZVM[LUZ[HJRLKPU[V [LWLLV]LYWYPU[LKHUKJLTLU[LKOHYKNYV\UKZ Z[YHUKSPULZLLWHNLMHJPLZ +PZWSHJP]LHUKYLWSHJP]L*H:6 L]HWVYP[PJT\KMSH[Z /HSP[LZHS[LYUMHJPLZ
<W^LSSPUNVM\UJVUMPULK HUKJVUMPULKTHYPUL HX\PMLYZ
ZV MR T :LLWJHWH[VW I\YPLKIPVOLYTJYLZ[
?b`nk^.',+'>oZihkZmbo^]kZp]hpg]hehfbmbsZmbhg':"Ar]kheh`rh_[Zlbglahpbg`l^^iZ`^_Z\b^lZg]aZebm^bg[Zlbg\^gmk^' Ghm^ma^ihm^gmbZe_hkma^fbqbg`h_l^ZpZm^kl^^iZ`^pbmak^Ünqbg`[kbg^l[hmaZ[hnmma^fZk`bgh_ma^]kZp]hpg[ZlbgZg] [^g^Zmama^k^Ünq\nkmZbgZ\khllfn\ah_ma^[ZlbgÜhhk'=bZ`kZfblghm]kZpgmhZgr\hglblm^gmeZm^kZel\Ze^';"<ehl^&nih_ _Z\b^liZmm^kgZllh\bZm^]pbmal^^iZ`^hnmÜhpshg^lZg]ma^ihm^gmbZeihlbmbhglh_fZkbg^(f^m^hkb\Zg]fZkbg^(ari^klZebg^ fbqbg`shg^l!bgiZkmZ_m^kPZkk^g%+)))ZZg]D^g]Zee%*212"'
&+$37(5
$1
1RQUHHIVNHOHWDO FDUERQDWHV 7HUPLQDO&DUERQDWH 6 &RPSOH[ '6 5HHI P 3OLRFHQHOLPH JUDLQVWRQH '& '6 '6 '6 P
%
D&Æ3'%
D2Æ3'%
P
(QHZHWDN +RSH*DWH 6HURH'RPL 0LGZD\ %DUEDGRV -DPDLFD 6XEVXUIDFH%DKDPDV 1DSSP
0HWHRULF PL[LQJ
%DIILQ%D\7[
(YDSRULWLF EULQHV
0DOORUFD 7XUNVDQG&DLFRV 1LMDU <XFDWDQ 6HURH'RPL &OSSP
/LQHRI 0L[LQJ
0DOORUFD 1HRJHQH,VUDHO
1LMDU6SDLQ
0HWHRULF PL[LQJ
NP
(YDSRULWLF EULQHV
'63UH'6
&
%ULQH
PHWHRULF
$UDELDQ*XOI
'
/RZEULQHOHYHO0D[LPXPGUDZGRZQ :LGHVSUHDGHYDSRULWHGHSRVLWLRQ 6XEDHULDO
*\SVXP %ULQHOHYHO
&RQQDWHWRK\SHUVDOLQH EULQHLQWHUIDFH ,QWHUPHGLDWHEULQHOHYHO6ROXWLRQRIPRUHVROXEOH VDOWVDQGPDUOGHSRVLWLRQ
6XEDHULDO PDUJLQ
%ULQHOHYHO (YDSRULWLF EULQHV
0DOORUFD 7XUNVDQG&DLFRV
%UDFNLVKDQGFRQQDWH WRVDOLQHLQWHUIDFH
1LMDU
0HWHRULF PL[LQJ
<XFDWDQ 6HURH'RPL 62SSP
&RQQDWHWRK\SHUVDOLQH EULQHLQWHUIDFH
?b`nk^.',,'GbcZk]hehfbm^lbgma^F^llbgbZgh_LiZbg':"!tfrvfodf!cpvoebsz nbsjof.gfe!fwbqpsjuft dpoujofoubm fwbqpsjuft Usjqpmj!Gpsnbujpo dmbz Ufssbwfddijp!Gn
tvcbrvfpvt ijbuvt
mpxtuboe gbo effq!cbtjo tbmufso
wfsz!mjnjufe efqptjujpo
@
Nfttjojbo
H
)zpvohfs*
effq Nfejufssbofbo Qmjpdfof
Gpsf. effq
Qfsdife!cbtjot!po!uisvtu!cfmu
CBTF!MFWFM fvtubujd!dzdmft nbsjof!sfdpoofdujpo sjwf dib sjof shf Esbxepxo!pg Nfejufssbofbo Jtpmbujpo!pg Nfejufssbofbo Tfb Jtpmbujpo pg!qfsdife cbtjot
tvcbrvfpvt!ijbuvt fvtubujd!dzdmft
?b`nk^.'-,'FZk`bgZemaknlmmhi^oZihkbm^lbgLb\ber!fh]bÛ^]Z_m^k;nme^k^mZe'%*22."':"K^`bhgZefh]^e_hklmkZmb`kZiar Z\khll]b__^k^gmmaknlmmhi[Zlbgl]nkbg`]^ihlbmbhgh_ma^Ehp^k>oZihkbm^l!l^^?b`nk^.'-*"'Ghm^ma^^oZihkbm^_hkfbg` [ZlbglZk^blheZm^]_khfZlnk_Z\^\hgg^\mbhgpbmama^F^]bm^kkZg^Zg%[nmaZo^Zl^^iZ`^\hgg^\mbhg'K^lmkb\m^]lnk_Z\^ fZkbg^\bk\neZmbhg_Z\bebmZm^l]^ihlbmbhgh_ma^Mkbiheb?hkfZmbhg'Ikh`k^llbo^maknlmbg`e^Z]lmhikh`k^llbo^k^]n\mbhgh_bfihkm h_fZkbg^bgÜhpZg]ÛgZeermh]^ihlbmbhgh_ihmZla^oZihkbm^lng]^k\hg]bmbhglh_ari^kZkb]bmrZg]ik^]hfbgZgmer\hgmbg^gmZe k^\aZk`^';":k^eZmbo^\akhghlmkZmb`kZiab\fh]^e_hkF^llbgbZgZg]Ehp^kIebh\^g^]^ihlbmlh_Lb\berZg]ma^bk\hkk^eZmbhg pbma[Zlbgpb]^]^ihlbmlh_ma^\^gmkZeF^]bm^kkZg^Zgln[&[Zlbgl'Ghm^maZm]^ihlbmbhgh_[Zlbgpb]^^oZihkbm^lhgma^Ühhk h_ma^F^]bm^kkZg^Zg\hkk^lihg]lmhZgng\hg_hkfbmr!l^jn^g\^[hng]Zkr"maZml^iZkZm^lma^Ehp^kZg]Nii^k>oZihkbm^l' Mablbgm^kik^mZmbhg\hgmkZlmlpbmamaZmh_<eZnshg^mZe'!*22/"'
F\FOH0D DW6HUUD3LUFLDWDF\FOH0D DW 7RUUHQWH9DFFDUUL]]RDQGF\FOH0D DW0DULDQRSROL
7KHVH FKDQJHV UHSUHVHQW WKH K\GURORJLFDO DQG VHGLPHQWDU\ UHVSRQVHWRWKHWKUXVWLQGXFHGIUDJPHQWDWLRQRIDODUJHUPDULQH
$1&,(17(9$325,7(6
7ULSROL EDVLQ LQWR GLIIHUHQW VXEEDVLQV ZKLFKHQGHGLQWKHPRUHRUOHVVLQFRP SOHWHHQGRUKHLFFORVXUHDVUHFRUGHGE\WKH GHSRVLWLRQRIWKHRYHUO\LQJHYDSRULWHULFK &DOFDUHGL%DVH)RUPDWLRQWUXHRQVHWRI WKHHYDSRULWLFHYHQW
:69)(:)(:05 ( 4,+0;,99(5,(52YPNQZTHUL[HS 9PKPUNL[HS .H\[PLYL[HS )LUZVUL[HS 4
SSLYHUK/Z\ +YVURLY[
2YPNQZTHUL[HS
7SPVJLUL
7SPVJLUL
7SPVJLUL
7SPVJLUL
7SPVJLUL
7SPVJLUL
7SPVJLUL
<WW,]HW 3V^,]HW
7KHUHLVDOVRDGHJUHHRIFKURQRVWUDWLJUDSKLF FRQIXVLRQLQUHODWLQJWKHHYDSRULWHÀOOVRI PDQ\RIWKHPDUJLQZDUGEDVLQVRI6SDLQWR WKHPDLQ0HGLWHUUDQHDQGUDZGRZQHYHQW 7KH6RUEDVEDVLQ6SDLQLVDJRRGLOOXV WUDWLRQRIWKLV'HSHQGLQJRQWKHDXWKRU WKH PDLQ VDOWHUQ XQLW oZihkbm^l';"Ma^F^llbgbZgIebh\^g^ln\\^llbhg bgma^Lhk[Zl;Zlbg':\\hk]bg`mhKb]bg`^mZe'!*221"ma^ LZebgbmr,
3(;,4,::050(5
-
:7(05
6YPO\LSH4[Z
UH [\ VY 4Z
VY
L HN
JV
LU [PU
5
>,
=LYH IHZ PU
HS
(N\PSHZ H L : HU UL H Y LY
RT
4HYNPUHS
5LVNLULHUK8\H[LYUHY`
I
HY
* QHY
=VSJHUPJZ5LVNLUL
5P
)L[PJIHZLTLU[
(STLYPH
THQVYMH\S[Z
*HIVKL.H[H
:(540.LUSVJRPHU 5PHNHYH .YH`5PHNHYHU PHURXV FRUHV /HLEROG DQG 5PHNHYH 3VJRWVY[-T >OP[L5PHNHYHU +RZHOODQG/HLEROG GHÀQHG 3SHUKV]LYPHU *SPU[VU-T 4HUPZ[X\L-T IRXUFRPSRVLWHVHTXHQFHV1LDJDUDQ $ 8QLW$ 8QLW DQG WKH % 8QLW ?b`nk^ .'.*' LbenkbZg ^oZihkbm^l bg ma^ Fb\ab`Zg ;Zlbg% NL:' :" Eh\Zmbhg h_ LZebgZ @khni% ma^ ^oZihkbm^&Ûee^] \^gmkZe Fb\ab`Zg ;Zlbg bl b]^gmbÛ^] [r ma^ ]hmm^] hoZe% )LJXUH 7KH 1LDJDUD *URXS Zg]ma^^oZihkbm^&l^Ze^]ghkma^kgZg]lhnma^kgibggZ\e^k^^_mk^g]lZk^lahpg[r FDUERQDWHV FRPSULVH D GRPLQDQWO\ ma^eZk`^k]hml':elhlahpgblma^ihlbmbhgh_ma^C>FI^mkhe^nf