The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) Series)

About Island Press Island Press is the only nonprofit organization in the United States whose principal purpose is the publication of books on environmental issues and natural resource management. We provide solutions-oriented information to professionals, public officials, business and community leaders, and concerned citizens who are shaping responses to environmental problems. In 2004, Island Press celebrates its twentieth anniversary as the leading provider of timely and practical books that take a multidisciplinary approach to critical environmental concerns. Our growing list of titles reflects our commitment to bringing the best of an expanding body of literature to the environmental community throughout North America and the world. Support for Island Press is provided by the Agua Fund, Brainerd Foundation, Geraldine R. Dodge Foundation, Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, Educational Foundation of America, the Ford Foundation, the George Gund Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Henry Luce Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Curtis and Edith Munson Foundation, National Environmental Trust, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, the New-Land Foundation, Oak Foundation, the Overbrook Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Winslow Foundation, and other generous donors. The opinions expressed in this book are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of these foundations.

About SCOPE The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) was established by the International Council for Science (ICSU) in 1969. It brings together natural and social scientists to identify emerging or potential environmental issues and to address jointly the nature and solution of environmental problems on a global basis. Operating at an interface between the science and decision-making sectors, SCOPE’s interdisciplinary and critical focus on available knowledge provides analytical and practical tools to promote further research and more sustainable management of the Earth’s resources. SCOPE’s members, forty national science academies and research councils and twenty-two international scientific unions, committees, and societies, guide and develop its scientific program.

SCOPE

62

The Global Carbon Cycle

The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE)

SCOPE Series SCOPE 1–59 in the series were published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., U.K. Island Press is the publisher for SCOPE 60 as well as subsequent titles in the series. SCOPE 60: Resilience and the Behavior of Large-Scale Systems, edited by Lance H. Gunderson and Lowell Pritchard Jr. SCOPE 61: Interactions of the Major Biogeochemical Cycles: Global Change and Human Impacts, edited by Jerry M. Melillo, Christopher B. Field, and Bedrich Moldan SCOPE 62: The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World, edited by Christopher B. Field and Michael R. Raupach

SCOPE

62

The Global Carbon Cycle Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World

Edited by Christopher B. Field and Michael R. Raupach

A project of SCOPE, the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, of the International Council for Science

Washington • Covelo • London

Copyright © 2004 Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: Island Press, 1718 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20009 Permission requests to reproduce portions of this book should be addressed to SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, 51 Boulevard de Montmorency, 75016 Paris, France). Inquiries regarding licensing publication rights to this book as a whole should be addressed to Island Press (1718 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20009, USA). ISLAND PRESS is a trademark of The Center for Resource Economics. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The global carbon cycle : integrating humans, climate, and the natural world / edited by Christopher B. Field and Michael R. Raupach. p. cm. –– (SCOPE series) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-55963-526-6 (cloth : alk. paper) -- ISBN 1-55963-527-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Atmospheric carbon dioxide. 2. Carbon cycle (Biogeochemistry) 3. Greenhouse gas mitigation. 4. Nature –– Effect of human beings on. I. Field, Christopher B. II. Raupach, M. R. III. SCOPE report ; 62 QC879.8.G55 2004 363.738'746 –– dc22 British Cataloguing-in-Publication data available. Printed on recycled, acid-free paper Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2003024792

Contents

List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxi Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxiii

1. The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Christopher B. Field, Michael R. Raupach, and Reynaldo Victoria

Part I: Crosscutting Issues 2. Current Status and Past Trends of the Global Carbon Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Christopher L. Sabine, Mar tin Heimann, Paulo Ar taxo, Dorothee C . E. Bakker, Chen-Tung Ar thur Chen, Christopher B. Field, Nicolas Gruber, Corinne Le Quéré, Ronald G. Prinn, Jeffrey E. Richey, Patricia Romero Lankao, Jayant A. Sathaye, and Riccardo Valentini

3. The Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21st Century: An Assessment of Carbon-Climate-Human Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Nicolas Gruber, Pierre Friedlingstein, Christopher B. Field, Riccardo Valentini, Mar tin Heimann, Jeffrey E. Richey, Patricia Romero Lankao, E.-Detlef Schulze, and Chen-Tung Ar thur Chen

4. Scenarios, Targets, Gaps, and Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 Jae Edmonds, For tunat Joos, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Richard G. Richels, and Jorge L. Sarmiento

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5. A Portfolio of Carbon Management Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103 Ken Caldeira, M. Granger Morgan, Dennis Baldocchi, Peter G. Brewer, Chen-Tung Ar thur Chen, Ger t-Jan Nabuurs, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, and G. Philip Rober tson

6. Interactions between CO2 Stabilization Pathways and Requirements for a Sustainable Earth System . . . . . . . . . .131 Michael R. Raupach, Josep G. Canadell, Dorothee C . E. Bakker, Philippe Ciais, Maria José Sanz, JingYun Fang, Jerr y M. Melillo, Patricia Romero Lankao, Jayant A. Sathaye, E.-Detlef Schulze, Pete Smith, and Jeff Tschirley

Part II: Overview of the Carbon Cycle 7. A Paleo-Perspective on Changes in Atmospheric CO2 and Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165 For tunat Joos and I. Colin Prentice

8. Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187 Mar tin Heimann, Christian Rödenbeck, and Manuel Gloor

9. Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205 Ronald G. Prinn

10. Climate–Carbon Cycle Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .217 Pierre Friedlingstein

11. Socioeconomic Driving Forces of Emissions Scenarios . . . . . .225 Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Part III: The Carbon Cycle of the Oceans 12. Natural Processes Regulating the Ocean Uptake of CO2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .243 Corinne Le Quéré and Nicolas Metzl

13. Variability and Climate Feedback Mechanisms in Ocean Uptake of CO2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .257 Jeffer y B. Greenblatt and Jorge L. Sarmiento

Contents | ix

Part IV: The Carbon Cycle of the Land 14. A Primer on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: What We Don’t Know But Should . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .279 Jonathan A. Foley and Navin Ramankutty

15. Geographic and Temporal Variation of Carbon Exchange by Ecosystems and Their Sensitivity to Environmental Perturbations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .295 Dennis Baldocchi and Riccardo Valentini

16. Current Consequences of Past Actions: How to Separate Direct from Indirect. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .317 Ger t-Jan Nabuurs

Part V: The Carbon Cycle of Land-Ocean Margins 17. Pathways of Atmospheric CO2 through Fluvial Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .329 Jeffrey E. Richey

18. Exchanges of Carbon in the Coastal Seas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .341 Chen-Tung Ar thur Chen

Part VI: Humans and the Carbon Cycle 19. Pathways of Regional Development and the Carbon Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .355 Patricia Romero Lankao

20. Social Change and CO2 Stabilization: Moving away from Carbon Cultures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .371 Louis Lebel

21. Carbon Transport through International Commerce . . . . . . . .383 Jeff Tschirley and Géraud Ser vin

Part VII: Purposeful Carbon Management 22. Near- and Long-Term Climate Change Mitigation Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .405 Jayant A. Sathaye

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23. Unanticipated Consequences: Thinking about Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .419 Jae Edmonds

24. International Policy Framework on Climate Change: Sinks in Recent International Agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .431 Maria José Sanz, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, and Riccardo Valentini

25. A Multi-Gas Approach to Climate Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .439 Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

26. Storage of Carbon Dioxide by Greening the Oceans? . . . . . . .453 Dorothee C . E. Bakker

27. Direct Injection of CO2 in the Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .469 Peter G. Brewer

28. Engineered Biological Sinks on Land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .479 Pete Smith

29. Abatement of Nitrous Oxide, Methane, and the Other Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: The Need for a Systems Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .493 G. Philip Rober tson

List of Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .507 SCOPE Series List . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .513 SCOPE Executive Committee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .517 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .519

List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes

Colorplates Colorplates follow page XXX. 1.

The current carbon cycle

2.

Mean annual net air-sea CO2 flux for 1995.

3.

Total column inventory of anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans.

4.

Characterics of SRES scenarios.

5.

Global primary energy requirements.

6.

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions for fossil fuels and land use change.

7.

Interannual variability of anomalous global ocean-atmosphere and landatmosphere CO2 fluxes.

8.

Total net surface-air CO2 flux and net non-fossil-fuel surface-air flux; average uncertainty reduction on the prior fluxes.

9.

Regional estimates of air-sea CO2 fluxes.

10.

Geographic distribution of the dominant environmental factors governing NPP.

Figures 1.1.

1.2.

(a) Schematic representation of the components of the coupled carbon-climate-human system and the links among them; (b) two complementary perspectives on human drivers of carbon emissions Effects of inertia in the coupled carbon-climate-human system

3

5 xi

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List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes

1.3.

The energy gap, showing the growing difference between the emissions projected in a widely used scenario (IS92a) and the emissions required to stabilize the atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm 9

2.1.

The distribution of sources for the world energy system in 2000

2.2.

A summary of the sources, quantities, lifetimes, and consequences of carbon containing non-CO2 gases in the atmosphere 28

2.3.

Historical composition of the world energy system, in (a) percent contributions and (b) energy contributions in EJ 36

3.1.

Cumulative fossil-fuel emissions and their redistribution among the three major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle over the period from 1920 to 2100 as modeled by two Earth system models 47

3.2.

Vulnerability of the carbon pools in the 21st century

3.3.

Global carbon cycle, its sink potential, and its vulnerability in the 21st century 70

4.1.

Carbon emissions, 1990–2100

4.2.

Effects of energy intensity improvements on energy demands in SRES illustrative scenarios 80

4.3.

Range of non-carbon-emitting energy supply in SRES illustrative scenarios 81

4.4.

Global carbon dioxide emissions in billion tons of carbon (PgC) per year since 1850 to present, plus emissions trajectories for the six SRES illustrative scenarios 82

4.5.

WRE CO2 emissions trajectories for five alternative CO2 concentrations

4.6.

The “gap” for five alternative CO2 concentrations

4.7.

Comparison of emissions trajectories consistent with various atmospheric CO2 concentrations 89

4.8.

Relationship between present discounted costs for stabilizing the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere at alternative levels 89

4.9.

(a) Allowed carbon emission for the WRE 550 pathway where atmospheric CO2 is stabilized at 550 ppm as simulated with the Bern CC model; (b) Cumulative carbon emissions allowance for the two WRE stabilization pathways leading to stabilization at 450 ppm and 1,000 ppm 92

21

48

78

83

84

List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes | xiii

4.10. Impact of a possible collapse of the formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) on the oceanic carbon uptake, and hence the carbon emission allowance to meet a stabilization target 97 5.1.

Cost of electricity presented as function of CO2 emissions per unit energy produced 112

5.2.

Representation of model results for direct injection of carbon into the ocean at three depths under two different boundary conditions 117

6.1.

Scenarios for directly human-induced C flux, compared with approximate stabilization trajectories 136

6.2.

Effects of economic, environmental, and social-institutional factors on the mitigation potential of a carbon management strategy 140

6.3.

Characteristics of the main SRES marker scenario families

7.1.

The evolution of proxies for local temperature in Greenland and Antarctica and the atmospheric concentration of the two greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 over the last glacial-interglacial transition 167

7.2.

The evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration and Greenland and Antarctic temperature, as indicated by δ 18O, during the period from 70 ka BP to 20 ka BP 170

7.3.

Holocene variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration, from measurements on air entrapped in ice from Taylor Dome, Antarctica, and from Dome Concordia 173

7.4.

Relationship between Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature change, climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, and variations in atmospheric CO2 176

8.1.

Annual mean atmospheric CO2 concentration difference between the Mauna Loa and the South Pole stations shown against interhemispheric difference in annual fossil-fuel emissions 192

8.2.

Annual mean latitudinal land-ocean breakdown of non-fossil-fuel carbon sources as determined in the TRANSCOM inversion intercomparison study of Gurney et al. 2002 194

8.3.

Time series of surface-atmosphere fluxes integrated over five continental areas and over three oceanic latitudinal bands 198

8.4.

Time series of anomalous non-fossil-fuel net land-atmosphere flux from the inversion compared with fire counts compiled by the European Space Agency, both aggregated over two continental areas 199

152

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List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes

10.1. Global feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the climate system

219

10.2. Cumulative carbon budgets for the IPSL and Hadley coupled simulations 221 11.1. Global carbon emissions: Historical development and scenarios

227

11.2. Global population projections: Historical development and scenarios

229

11.3. Global economic development measured by gross world product (GWP) measured at market exchange rates: Historical development and scenarios 231 11.4. GWP and population growth: Historical development and scenarios

232

11.5. Global primary energy requirements: Historical development and scenarios 233 11.6. Primary energy intensity versus GDP per capita measured at market exchange rates: Regional historical developments 234 11.7. Global decarbonization of primary energy: Historical development and scenarios 235 11.8. Global decarbonization and decline of energy intensity (1990–2100) 12.1. Sea-air CO2 flux by latitude band

237

244

12.2. Meridional distribution of ocean fCO2 measured in January 2000 and August 2000 in the southwestern Indian Ocean (OISO cruises) 246 12.3. Global mean current inventory and potential maximum of anthropogenic carbon for an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 368 ppm 248 13.1. Accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and fossil-fuel emissions 13.2. Anomalous sea-air fluxes of CO2 in the equatorial Pacific 13.3. Marginal airborne fraction vs. CO2 release

259

260

266

14.1. Relationships between terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric carbon pools 280 14.2. Estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance

286

14.3. A highly simplified model of the terrestrial carbon cycle

291

15.1. Relation between carbon content in the top meter of soil and mean annual temperature 296 15.2. Seasonal variation in net CO2 exchange of a temperate deciduous forest 298

List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes | xv

15.3. Impact of length of growing season on NEE of temperate broad-leaved forests 300 15.4. Seasonal variation of net CO2 exchange of temperate, boreal, and alpine conifer forests 301 15.5. Seasonal variation of net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a tropical forest growing in the Amazon near Manaus, Brazil 303 15.6. Seasonal variation of NEP of Mediterranean/subtropical woodland ecosystems and the environmental drivers that perturb the carbon fluxes 305 15.7. Seasonal variation in net CO2 exchange of a Mediterranean annual grassland and a temperate continental C4 grassland 306 15.8. Seasonal variation of net CO2 exchange of an agricultural crop

307

15.9. Seasonal variation in net CO2 exchange of a northern wetland and tundra 309 16.1. “An example of net changes in ecosystem carbon stocks over time”

318

16.2. Age class distribution of the European forests (140 million ha in 30 countries) in 1990 319 16.3. Comparison of the temporal development of the annual flux (positive = sink) in the total system of forest biomass, soils, and products for beech, Norway spruce, and the natural regeneration system 321 16.4. Temporal evolution of the net annual flux of carbon (sink = positive) for six global regional case studies 323 16.5. A possible approach for separating direct and indirect effects

325

17.1. Major reservoirs and pathways of atmospheric CO2 in fluvial systems

330

17.2. Scenarios of the fluxes of carbon through fluvial systems relative to atmospheric CO2 337 18.1. Schematic diagram for the annual carbon budget (in 1012 mol PgC y-1) for the continental margins of the world 344 18.2. Organic carbon cycle in global coastal oceans in its preanthropogenic state 346 18.3. Organic carbon balance and net exchange flux of CO2 across the air-seawater interface for the coastal margin system 348 19.1. Share of world’s GDP by region (1980–1999)

360

19.2. Primary energy consumption by region (1991, 1995, and 2000)

360

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19.3. Carbon dioxide emissions by region (1991, 1995, and 2000) 19.4. Demographic indicators (1993–1998)

361

361

19.5. Local governmental revenue and expenditures (1998)

361

19.6. Number of passenger cars per thousand people (1995)

362

19.7. Annual net carbon flux to the atmosphere from land use change (1960–1990) 363 19.8. Urban social indicators (1998) 19.9. Economic indicators (1998)

364 365

20.1. A simple conceptual framework for various social structures and processes influencing the global carbon cycle 372 21.1. Net carbon flow (X – M) for all regions (2000)

391

21.2. Net carbon flow (X – M) for North America (1989–2000) 21.3. Net carbon flow (X – M) for Europe (1989–2000) 21.4. Net carbon flow (X – M) for Asia (1989–2000)

392

392 393

22.1. Actual per capita CO2 emissions and per capita CO2 emissions indexed to the ratio of 1971 GDP (1990 US$1,000 purchasing power parity) to 1971 CO2 emissions for selected countries 406 22.2. Projections of (a) GDP losses and (b) marginal cost in Annex B countries in 2010 from global models 412 22.3. Rate of change in (a) energy intensity, and (b) carbon intensity, historically achieved levels (1860–1990) 414 25.1. Incremental value of emission rights for (a) carbon, (b) CH4, and (c) N2O, 2010–2100 (alternative temperature ceilings) 445 25.2. Prices of a ton of (a) CH4 and (b) N2O relative to carbon (alternative temperature ceilings) 446 25.3. Prices of a ton of (a) CH4 and (b) N2O relative to carbon (constraint on absolute decadal temperature change) 447 25.4. Prices of a ton of (a) CH4 and (b) N2O relative to carbon when the objective is balancing costs and benefits 448 26.1. Seasonally averaged concentrations of nitrate and chlorophyll in oceanic surface waters with contours at 2 µmol l-1 and 0.5 µmol l-1 intervals, respectively 455

List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes | xvii

26.2. Parameters inside and outside the iron-fertilized waters (or “patch”) in the Southern Ocean Iron RElease Experiment 456–457 27.1. The phase behavior of CO2 in seawater, showing the gas-liquid and hydrate phase boundaries with a typical in situ P-T profile 471 27.2. A “frost heave” of CO2 hydrate on the seafloor at 3,600 m depth resulting from massive hydrate formation 472 27.3. A 56 l carbon-fiber-wound CO2 delivery system installed on ROV Tiburon, showing end cap with gauges, delivery pumps on top, and valves to the left 474 27.4. A sketch of a deep-sea CO2 enrichment experimental site designed to investigate the response of marine organisms to locally elevated CO2 levels 475 27.5. The pH signals recorded at distances of 1 m, 5 m, and 50 m from a CO2 source placed on the seafloor 475 28.1. Relationships between reported carbon sequestration potentials depending on the number and type of constraints considered 481 28.2. Illustrative graph showing the possible time course of sink development 485 29.1. Estimated climate forcings (globally averaged) between 1750 and 1998 29.2. Estimated global budgets of the anthropic sources of CH4 and N2O 29.3. Seasonal CH4 emission in lowland rice as a function of grain yield

494 499

501

Tables 2.1.

The global carbon budget

19

2.2.

Plant carbon, soil carbon, and net primary production in the world’s major biomes 23

3.1.

Summary of pools and their vulnerability over the next 20 years and over the course of the 21st century 50–51

3.2.

Summary of marine carbon cycle feedbacks

4.1.

The gap for the six SRES illustrative scenarios for atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 450 ppm to 750 ppm (PgC/year) 85

4.2.

The gap for the six SRES illustrative scenarios for atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 450 ppm to 750 ppm (EJ/year) 85

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List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes

4.3.

Allowed carbon emissions for WRE 450 and WRE 750 stabilization pathways 93

4.4.

Impact of climate feedback on carbon sinks and global warming in the Hadley and IPSL simulations 96

5.1.

Categorization of mitigation options by timescale to achieve a significant proportion of possible reductions and by potential magnitude of CO2 equivalent impact on radiative forcing 107

5.2.

Magnitude of R&D needed driven by CO2 mitigation needs

5.3.

Estimates of storage capacity of geologic reservoirs

5.4.

Potential for non-CO2 greenhouse gas abatement and biosphere carbon storage 120

6.1.

Current (1990–1999) global average values for terms in the global carbon budget and the quantities P, ge, f, i 134

6.2.

Assessment of positive and negative climate, economic, environmental, and sociocultural impacts associated with mitigation strategies 143

108–111

116

6.3a. Scenario drivers taken from the SRES scenarios and total carbon gap from Chapter 4, this volume 154 6.3b. Increase in food demand under each scenario

155

6.3c. Impacts of scenarios on the pressure on land for food production

155

9.1.

Chemically reactive greenhouse gases and their precursors: Abundances, trends, budgets, lifetimes, and GWPs 206–207

9.2.

Current global emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases expressed as equivalent amounts of carbon (Ceq) in CO2 using GWPs with a 100-year time horizon 208

12.1. Estimates of mean ocean CO2 uptake from various methods and recent time periods 249 13.1. Estimates of global ocean CO2 uptake variability

258

13.2. Cumulative ocean uptake of CO2 due to different climate-induced feedback effects 262 13.3. Biological effects on cumulative ocean uptake of CO2

265

13.4. Studies of THC slowdown under global warming scenarios

269

14.1. Estimates of global budget of anthropogenic carbon emissions, as reported by the IPCC Third Assessment Report 281

List of Colorplates, Figures, Tables, Boxes, and Appendixes | xix

14.2. Global budget of anthropogenic carbon emissions for the 1980s using Houghton (1999) land use emissions estimates 283 14.3. Comparison of global budget of anthropogenic carbon emissions for the 1980s 284 14.4. Breakdown of the terrestrial carbon budget for the 1980s, based on the CCMLP simulations 287 18.1. Fluxes relevant to continental margins

343–344

21.1. SITC framework for national export and import

385

21.2. Selected agricultural and forest product trade data availability 21.3. Carbon exports and imports by continent for 2000

385

387

21.4. Volume and value of cereals, paper, and wood products exports by continent for 2000 388 21.5. Carbon exports from region to region for 2000

389

22.1. Estimates of potential global greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 and 2020 408–409 22.2. Estimates of potential global greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010: Land use, land use change, and forestry 410 24.1. Major conferences on global climate change 25.1. Methane emissions, 1990

433

442

25.2. Potential sink enhancement in 2010 at a marginal cost of US$100 per ton of carbon 443 25.3. Anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions, 1990

444

26.1. The amount of added iron (Fe) and the observed drawdown of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the mixed layer during three iron fertilization experiments 458 29.1. Global warming potentials (mass basis) for major greenhouse gases over different time periods 495 29.2. Annual fluxes of CH4 and N2O in carbon-equivalent units

496

29.3. Sources of greenhouse gas flux in agricultural and forest systems at a U.S. Midwest site 503

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Boxes 28.1. Management options to enhance terrestrial carbon sinks

482–483

Appendixes 14.1 Methods of estimating terrestrial carbon fluxes

289

14.2 A highly simplified model of terrestrial carbon balance 21.1 Selected definitions

394

21.2 Crop carbon ratios

394

290

21.3 Top importers and exports of cereals, paper products, and wood products, 2000 395 21.4 Country groupings

396–397

21.5 Export and imports from reporter to partner, 2000

398–399

Foreword

The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) publishes this book as the second in a series of rapid assessments of the important biogeochemical cycles that are essential to life on this planet. SCOPE’s aim is to make sure that experts meet on a regular basis to discuss and summarize recent advances within disciplines and evaluate their possible significance in understanding environmental problems and potential solutions. The SCOPE rapid assessment series attempts to ensure that the information so generated is published and made available within a year from the date of the synthesis. These assessments provide timely, definitive syntheses of important issues for scientists, students, and policy makers. The present volume is intended to be a successor to SCOPE carbon books of the 1970s and 1980s and to complement recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports on the scientific basis of climate change, the impacts of climate change, and the potential for mitigation of climate change. This volume’s main concept is that the carbon cycle, climate, and humans work together as a single system. This type of system-level approach focuses the science on a number of issues that are almost certain to be important in the future. It should provide a timely examination of the practical consequences of this knowledge and facilitate its application in enhancing the sustainability of ecosystems affected by humans. This synthesis volume is a joint project of two bodies sponsored by the International Council of Science (ICSU): SCOPE and the Global Carbon Project (GCP). SCOPE is one of twenty-six interdisciplinary bodies established by the ICSU to address crossdisciplinary issues. In response to emerging environmental concerns, the ICSU established SCOPE in 1969 in recognition that many of these concerns required scientific input spanning several disciplines represented within its membership. Representatives of forty member countries and twenty-two international, disciplinary-specific unions, scientific committees, and associates currently participate in the work of SCOPE, which directs particular attention to developing countries. The mandate of SCOPE is to assemble, review, and synthesize the information available on environmental changes attributable to human activity and the effects of these changes on humans; to assess and evaluate methodologies for measuring environmental parameters; to provide an intelxxi

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Foreword

ligence service on current research; and to provide informed advice to agencies engaged in studies of the environment. The recently formed Global Carbon Project is a shared partnership between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The attention of the scientific community, policy makers, and the general public increasingly focuses on the rising concentration of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere and on the carbon cycle in general. Initial attempts, through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, are underway to slow the rate of increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These societal actions require a scientific understanding of the carbon cycle and are placing increasing demands on the international science community to establish a common, mutually agreed knowledge base to support policy debate and action. The Global Carbon Project aims to meet this challenge by developing a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them. John W. B. Stewart, Editor-in-Chief SCOPE Secretariat 51 Boulevard de Montmorency, 75016 Paris, France Executive Director: Véronique Plocq-Fichelet

Acknowledgments

The very able Scientific Steering Committee for the rapid assessment project (RAP) on the carbon cycle included Niki Gruber, Jingyun Fan, Inez Fung, Jerry Melillo, Rich Richels, Chris Sabine, Riccardo Valentini, and Reynaldo Victoria. Reynaldo was a superb local host, spreading the resources of Brazil before the meeting participants. The laboratory Reynaldo directs, the Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (CENA), provided a wealth of institutional support, including able assistance from Daniel Victoria, Vicki Ballaster, and Alex Krusche. Technical support from the Inter-American Institute (IAI) was invaluable, with Luis Marcelo Achite helping to keep the meeting on track. Without Luiz Martinelli’s contributions as beach patrol agent, the meeting’s sessions would have never reached a quorum. Jan Brown was a dedicated and efficient volunteer editor. The SCOPE editorial team, John Stewart (editor in chief ) and Susan Greenwood Etienne, crafted a smooth transition from meeting mode to book mode. The Island Press editorial team, including Todd Baldwin, James Nuzum, David Peattie, and Heidi Fritschel, was efficient and professional. Véronique Plocq-Fichelet, the executive director of SCOPE, and Pep Canadell, the project officer for the Global Carbon Project, both opened many doors by making this RAP a priority. The RAP for the carbon cycle was supported by funds from the A. W. Mellon Foundation, the National Science Foundation (USA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan), and the European Union. Additional travel funds came from the Electric Power Research Institute. Thanks to Yoshiki Yamagata for help with funding from the National Institute for Environmental Studies and to Riccardo Valentini for help with funding from the European Union. Critical support for the RAP concept came from the International Council for Science (ICSU), the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Jerry Melillo developed the RAP concept and assembled the resources to get it started. The city of Ubatuba, Brazil, provided a stimulating and enjoyable venue for developing the ideas discussed in this volume. The Carnegie Institution of Washington and xxiii

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the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) generously provided the time to let us steer this project. Finally, it is a privilege to work with and share the excitement of scientific discovery with the community of carbon cycle researchers. Their dedication and insight help lay the foundations for a sustainable future. Chris Field Stanford, California, USA October 2003

Mike Raupach Canberra, Australia

1 The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World Christopher B. Field, Michael R. Raupach, and Reynaldo Victoria

The Carbon-Climate-Human System It has been more than a century since Arrhenius (1896) first concluded that continued emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels could lead to a warmer climate. In the succeeding decades, Arrhenius’s calculations have proved both eerily prescient and woefully incomplete. His fundamental conclusion, linking fossil-fuel combustion, the radiation balance of the Earth system, and global climate, has been solidly confirmed. Both sophisticated climate models (Cubasch et al. 2001) and studies of past climates (Joos and Prentice, Chapter 7, this volume) document the link between atmospheric CO2 and global climate. The basic understanding of this link has led to a massive investment in detailed knowledge, as well as to political action. The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a remarkable accomplishment, signifying international recognition of the vulnerability of global climate to human actions (Sanz et al., Chapter 24, this volume). Since Arrhenius’s early discussion of climate change, scientific understanding of the topic has advanced on many fronts. The workings of the climate system, while still uncertain in many respects, are well enough known that general circulation models accurately reproduce many aspects of past and present climate (McAvaney et al. 2001). Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by humans are known with reasonable accuracy (Andres et al. 1996), including human contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases other than CO2 (Prinn, Chapter 9, this volume). In addition, a large body of literature characterizes land and ocean processes that release or sequester greenhouse gases in the 1

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context of changing climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities. Much of the pioneering work on land and ocean aspects of the carbon cycle was collected in or inspired by three volumes edited by Bert Bolin and colleagues and published by SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment) in 1979 (Bolin et al. 1979), 1981 (Bolin 1981), and 1989 (Bolin et al. 1989). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations as a vehicle for synthesizing scientific information on climate change, has released a number of comprehensive assessments, including recent reports on the scientific basis of climate change (Houghton et al. 2001), impacts of climate change (McCarthy et al. 2001), and potential for mitigating climate change (Metz et al. 2001). These assessments, which reflect input from more than 1,000 scientists, summarize the scientific literature with balance and precision. The disciplinary sweep and broad participation of the IPCC efforts are great strengths. This volume is intended as a complement to the IPCC reports and as a successor to the SCOPE carbon-cycle books of the 1970s and 1980s. It extends the work of the IPCC in three main ways. First, it provides an update on key scientific discoveries in the past few years. Second, it takes a comprehensive approach to the carbon cycle, treating background and interactions with substantial detail. Managed aspects of the carbon cycle (and aspects subject to potential future management) are discussed within the same framework as the historical and current carbon cycle on the land, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere. Third, this volume makes a real effort at synthesis, not only summarizing disciplinary perspectives, but also characterizing key interactions and uncertainties between and at the frontiers of traditional disciplines. This volume’s centerpiece is the concept that the carbon cycle, climate, and humans work together as a single system (Figure 1.1). This systems-level approach focuses the science on a number of issues that are almost certain to be important in the future and that, in many cases, have not been studied in detail. Some of these issues concern the driving forces of climate change and the ways that carbon-climate-human interactions modulate the sensitivity of climate to greenhouse gas emissions. Others concern opportunities for and constraints on managing greenhouse gas emissions and the carbon cycle. The volume is a result of a rapid assessment project (RAP) orchestrated by SCOPE (http://www.icsu-scope.org) and the Global Carbon Project (GCP, http://www.global carbonproject.org). Both are projects of the International Council for Science (ICSU, http://www.icsu.org), the umbrella organization for the world’s professional scientific societies. The GCP has additional sponsorship from the World Meteorological Organization (http://www.wmo.ch) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (http://ioc.unesco.org/iocweb/). The RAP process assembles a group of leading scientists and challenges them to extend the frontiers of knowledge. The process includes mutual education through a series of background papers and an intensive effort to develop cross-disciplinary perspectives in a series of collectively written synthesis papers. To provide timely synthesis on rapidly changing issues, the timeline is aggresInsertFigure1.1here

Figure 1.1. (a) Schematic representation of the components of the coupled carbonclimate-human system and the links among them. Solid lines and (+) indicate positive feedbacks, feedbacks that tend to release carbon to the atmosphere and amplify climate change. Dashed lines and (–) indicate negative feedbacks, feedbacks that tend to sequester carbon and suppress climate change. GHG, in the center box, is greenhouse gases. ARD, in the lower right of the land box, is afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, the suite of forestry activities identified as relevant to carbon credits in the Kyoto Protocol. Over the next century, the oceans will continue to operate as a net carbon sink, but the land (in the absence of fossil emissions) may be either a source or sink. (b) Two complementary perspectives on human drivers of carbon emissions. In the Kaya identity widely used for economic analysis (left), emissions are seen as a product of four factors: population, per capita gross world product, the energy intensity of the gross world product, and the carbon intensity of energy production. From a political science perspective (right), the drivers emerge from interactions among policy, institutions, social organization, and knowledge and values.

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sive. All of the authors worked with the editors and the publisher to produce a finished book within nine months of the synthesis meeting. The book is organized into seven parts. Part I contains the crosscutting chapters, which address the current status of the carbon cycle (Sabine et al., Chapter 2), the future carbon cycle of the oceans and land (Gruber et al., Chapter 3), possible trajectories of carbon emissions from human actions (Edmonds et al., Chapter 4), approaches to reducing emissions or sequestering additional carbon (Caldeira et al., Chapter 5), and the integration of carbon management in the broader framework of human and Earth-system activities (Raupach et al., Chapter 6). Part II surveys the carbon cycle, including historical patterns (Joos and Prentice, Chapter 7), recent spatial and temporal patterns (Heimann et al., Chapter 8), greenhouse gases other than CO2 (Prinn, Chapter 9), two-way interactions between the climate and the carbon cycle (Friedlingstein, Chapter 10), and the socioeconomic trends that drive carbon emissions (Nakicenovic, Chapter 11). Parts III through VII provide background and a summary of recent findings on the carbon cycle of the oceans (Le Quéré and Metzl, Chapter 12; Greenblatt and Sarmiento, Chapter 13), the land (Foley and Ramankutty, Chapter 14; Baldocchi and Valentini, Chapter 15; Nabuurs, Chapter 16), land-ocean margins (Richey, Chapter 17; Chen, Chapter 18), humans and the carbon cycle (Romero Lankao, Chapter 19; Lebel, Chapter 20; Tschirley and Servin, Chapter 21), and purposeful carbon management (Sathaye, Chapter 22; Edmonds, Chapter 23; Sanz et al., Chapter 24; Manne and Richels, Chapter 25; Bakker, Chapter 26; Brewer, Chapter 27; Smith, Chapter 28; and Robertson, Chapter 29). The key messages from this assessment focus on five main themes that cut across all aspects of the carbon-climate-human system. The overarching theme of the book is that all parts of the carbon cycle are interrelated. Understanding will not be complete, and management will not be successful, without a framework that considers the full set of feedbacks, a set that almost always transcends both human actions and unmanaged systems. This systems perspective presents many challenges, because the interactions among very different components of the carbon cycle tend to be poorly recognized and understood. Still, the field must address these challenges. To do that, we must start with four specific themes that link the ideas discussed throughout the book. These four themes are (1) inertia and the consequence of entrained processes in the carbon, climate, and human systems, (2) unaccounted-for vulnerabilities, especially the prospects for large releases of carbon in a warming climate, (3) gaps between reasonable expectations for future approaches to managing carbon and the requirements for stabilizing atmospheric CO2, and (4) the need for a common framework for assessing natural and managed aspects of the carbon cycle. Each of these themes is previewed here and discussed extensively in the following chapters.

Inertia Many aspects of the carbon-climate-human system change slowly, with a strong tendency to remain on established trajectories. As a consequence, serious problems may be

1. The Global Carbon Cycle | 5

Figure 1.2. Effects of inertia in the coupled carbon-climate-human system. If there are delays associated with (1) assembling the evidence that climate has moved outside an acceptable envelope, (2) negotiating agreements on strategy and participation, and (3) developing new technologies to accomplish the strategies, then there will be additional delays associated with internal dynamics of the land and ocean system. As a consequence, the actual climate change may be far greater than that originally identified as acceptable.

effectively entrained before they are generally recognized (Figure 1.2). Effective management may depend on early and consistent action, including actions with financial costs. The political will to support these costs will require the strongest possible evidence on the nature of the problems and the efficiency of the solutions. The carbon-climate-human system includes processes that operate on a wide range of timescales, including many that extend over decades to centuries. The slow components have added tremendously to the challenge of quantifying human impacts on ocean carbon (Sabine et al., Chapter 2) and ocean heat content (Levitus et al. 2000). They also prevent the ocean from quickly absorbing large amounts of anthropogenic carbon (Sabine et al., Chapter 2) and underlie the very long lifetime of atmospheric CO2. Several new results highlight the critical role of inertia for the carbon cycle on land. It is increasingly clear that a substantial fraction of the current terrestrial sink, perhaps the majority, is a consequence of ecosystem recovery following past disturbances. Across much of the temperate Northern Hemisphere, changes in forestry practices, agriculture, and fire management have allowed forests to increase in biomass or area (Nabuurs, Chapter 16). Evidence that much of the recent sink on land is a result of land management has important implications for the future trajectory of the carbon InsertFigure1.2here

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cycle. Beginning with Bacastow and Keeling (1973), most estimates of future carbon sinks have assumed that recent sinks were a consequence of CO2 fertilization of plant growth and that past responses could be projected into the future with a CO2-sensitivity coefficient or beta factor (Friedlingstein et al. 1995). To the extent that recent sinks are caused by management rather than CO2 fertilization, past estimates of future sinks from CO2 fertilization are likely to be too optimistic (Gruber et al., Chapter 3). Eventual saturation in sinks from management (Schimel et al. 2001) gives them a very different trajectory from that of sinks from CO2 fertilization, especially those calculated by models without nutrient limitation (Prentice 2001). In the human system, inertia plays a number of critical roles. The dynamics of development tend to concentrate future growth in carbon emissions in countries with developing economies (Romero Lankao, Chapter 19). This historical inertia, combined with potentially limited resources for carbon-efficient energy systems (Sathaye, Chapter 22), creates pressure for massive future emissions growth. Slowly changing institutions and incentive mechanisms in all countries (Lebel, Chapter 20) tend to entrain emissions trajectories further. Inertia is profoundly important in the energy system, especially in the slow pace for introducing new technologies. The slow pace reflects not only the long time horizon for research and development, but also the long period required to retire existing capital stocks (Caldeira et al., Chapter 5). The long time horizon for bringing technologies to maturity and retiring capital stocks is only part of the timeline for the non-emitting energy system of the future, which also depends on the development of fundamentally new technologies (Hoffert et al. 2002). The search for fundamentally new energy sources cannot, however, constitute the entire strategy for action, because the entrained damage may be unacceptably large before new technologies are ready (Figure 1.2). A diverse portfolio of energy efficiency, new technologies, and carbon sequestration offers the strongest prospects for stabilizing atmospheric CO2 (Caldeira et al., Chapter 5).

Vulnerability A fundamental goal of the science of the carbon-climate-human system is to understand and eventually reduce the Earth’s vulnerability to dangerous changes in climate. This agenda requires that we understand the mechanisms that drive climate change, develop strategies for minimizing the magnitude of the climate change that does occur, and create approaches for coping with the climate change that cannot be avoided. Successful pursuit of this agenda is simpler when the carbon-climate-human system generates negative feedbacks (that tend to suppress further climate change), and it is more complicated when the system generates positive feedbacks (Figure 1.1). Positive feedbacks are especially challenging if they occur suddenly, as threshold phenomena, or if they involve coupled responses of the atmosphere, land, oceans, and human activities. We are entering an era when we need not—and in fact must not—view the ques-

1. The Global Carbon Cycle | 7

tion of vulnerability from any single perspective. The carbon-climate-human system generates climate change as an integrated system. Attempts to understand the integrated system must take an integrated perspective. Mechanistic process models, the principal tools for exploring the behavior of climate and the carbon cycle on land and in the oceans, are increasingly competent to address questions about interactions among major components of the system (Gruber et al., Chapter 3). Still, many of the key interactions are only beginning to appear in models or are not yet represented. For these interactions, we need a combination of dedicated research and other tools for taking advantage of the available knowledge. In assessing the vulnerability of the carbon cycle to the possibility of large releases in the future, we combine results from mechanistic simulations with a broad range of other kinds of information. Several new lines of information suggest that past assessments have underestimated the vulnerability of key aspects of the carbon-climate-human system. Several of these concern climate-carbon feedbacks. Simulations with coupled climate-carbon models demonstrate a previously undocumented positive feedback between warming and the terrestrial carbon cycle, in which CO2 releases that are stimulated by warming accelerate warming and further CO2 releases (Friedlingstein, Chapter 10, this volume). The experiments to date are too limited to support an accurate quantification of this positive feedback, but the range of results highlights the importance of further research. The behavior of two models of comparable sophistication is so different that, with similar forcing, they differ in atmospheric CO2 in 2100 by more than 200 parts per million (ppm). The models that simulate the future carbon balance of land are still incomplete. At least three mechanisms either not yet represented or represented in the models in a rudimentary way have the potential to amplify positive feedbacks to climate warming (Gruber et al., Chapter 3). The first of these is the respiration of carbon currently locked in permanently frozen soils. General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations indicate that much of the permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere may disappear over the next century. Because these soils contain large quantities of carbon (Michaelson et al. 1996), and because much of this carbon is relatively labile once thawed, potential releases over a century could be in the range of 100 PgC (Gruber et al., Chapter 3). Wetland soils are similar, containing vast quantities of carbon, which is subject to rapid decomposition when dry and aerated. Drying can allow wildfires, such as those that released an estimated additional 0.8 to 3.7 PgC from tropical fires during the 1997–1998 El Niño (Langenfelds et al. 2002). Drying wetland soils might result in a decrease in methane emissions, along with an increase in CO2 emissions, requiring a careful analysis of overall greenhouse forcing (Manne and Richels, Chapter 25). A third aspect of the terrestrial biosphere with the potential for massive carbon releases in the future is large-scale wildfire, especially in tropical and boreal forest ecosystems (Gruber et al., Chapter 3). Climate changes in both kinds of ecosystems could push large areas past a threshold where they are dry enough to support large wildfires (Nepstad et al. 2001), and a fundamental change in the fire regime could effectively eliminate large areas of forest. None

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of these three mechanisms is thoroughly addressed in current ecosystem or carbon-cycle models. As a consequence, it is not yet feasible to estimate either the probability of the changes or the likely carbon emissions. Still, ignoring the potential for these large releases is not responsible, and the vulnerability of the climate system to them should be explored. Vulnerability of ecosystems used for carbon management highlights other aspects of the need for an integrated perspective on the carbon-climate-human system. Ocean fertilization and deep disposal both create altered conditions for ocean ecosystems (Bakker, Chapter 26; Brewer, Chapter 27). To date, the consequences of these alterations are poorly known. Ecosystem alteration is also an issue for terrestrial sequestration through afforestation. Especially where afforestation involves plantations of a single tree species or non-native species, it is important to assess how any extra vulnerability to loss of ecosystem services alters the overall balance of costs and benefits (Raupach et al., Chapter 6).

The Energy Gap Humans interact with nearly every aspect of the carbon cycle. In the past, trajectories of emissions and land use change unfolded with little or no reference to their impacts on climate. Now much of the world is ready to make carbon management a priority. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol establish initial steps toward stabilizing the climate (Sanz et al., Chapter 24, this volume). In the future, however, much more will need to be done, especially if CO2 concentrations are to be stabilized at a concentration of 750 ppm or lower. The basic problem is that world energy demand continues to grow rapidly. With a business-asusual strategy, global carbon emissions could exceed 20 PgC per year (y-1) (about three times current levels) by 2050 (Nakicenovic, Chapter 11). Many technologies present options for decreasing emissions or sequestering carbon. Unfortunately, no single technology appears to have the potential to solve the energy problem comprehensively within the next few decades (Caldeira et al., Chapter 5, this volume). Indeed, meeting world energy demands without carbon emissions may require fundamental breakthroughs in energy technology (Hoffert et al. 2002). Even with future breakthroughs, the best options for managing the future energy system are very likely to involve a portfolio of approaches, including strategies for extracting extra energy from carbon-based fuels, technologies for generating energy without carbon emissions, and approaches to increasing sequestration on the land and in the oceans (Caldeira et al., Chapter 5). Increases in energy efficiency (measured as energy per unit of carbon emissions) typically accompany economic development, and it is reasonable to assume that efficiency increases will continue in the future (Sathaye, Chapter 22). Even with aggressive assumptions about increases in efficiency, reasonable scenarios for the future may result

1. The Global Carbon Cycle | 9

Figure 1.3. The energy gap, showing the growing difference between the emissions projected in a widely used scenario (IS92a) and the emissions required to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm (with the WRE 550 scenario [Edmonds et al., Chapter 4, this volume]). This energy gap is the target for climate policy. Also shown is the emissions trajectory for IS92a in the absence of endogenous technology improvements. The very large improvements can be expected based on past experience, but they may involve many of the options that are also candidates for closing the energy gap between the emissions scenario (IS92a) and the stabilization scenario (550 ppm constraint). Redrawn from Edmonds et al., Chapter 4.

in CO2 levels well above widely discussed stabilization targets (i.e., 450, 550, and 750 ppm CO2). This is the case for many of the scenarios explored in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakicenovic, Chapter 11), leading to a gap between emissions consistent with reasonable advances in energy technology and those required to reach a particular stabilization target. This gap needs to be filled through active policies and could include incentives for new technologies, sequestration, or decreased energy consumption (Edmonds et al., Chapter 4). The juxtaposition of the portfolio of future options for energy and carbon management with the gap between many economic scenarios and CO2 stabilization creates a problem. A priori, it is not possible to identify a set of options available for filling the energy gap because most or even all of the available options may have already been used in the increased energy efficiency that occurs as a natural part of technological advance (Figure 1.3). Because there is no way to predict the mechanisms that will appear endogenously, there is no simple way to identify an additional set that should be the targets for policy intervention. From a carbon management perspective, the efficiency

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increases that occur spontaneously make some aspects of the carbon problem simpler, and they make some aspects more difficult to solve. On the one hand, if economic pressures consistently lead to efficiency increases, additional policy tools may not be necessary, at least for some of the efficiency increases. On the other hand, if the efficiency increases in the economic scenarios consume most of the options for carbon management, the costs of developing options for closing the gap may be very high (Edmonds et al., Chapter 4) or they may entail unacceptable trade-offs with other sectors (Raupach et al., Chapter 6). InsertFigure1.3here

Toward a Common Framework Some of the greatest challenges in managing the carbon-climate-human system for a sustainable future involve establishing appropriate criteria for comparing options. Ultimately, we need a framework where any option can be explored in terms of its implications for the climate system, its implications for energy, and its other impacts on ecosystems and humans (Raupach et al., Chapter 6). Many of the challenges involve processes that operate on different timescales. The sensitivity to time frame of the relative value of mitigating CO2 and CH4 emissions illustrates the problem. On a timescale of a few years, decreasing CH4 emissions has a large impact on climate, but this impact decreases over decades as a consequence of the relatively short atmospheric life of CH4 (Manne and Richels, Chapter 25). Carbon management through reforestation and afforestation potentially yields benefits over many decades, but these benefits disappear or reverse when forests stop growing, are harvested, or are disturbed. A decision about using a plot for a forest plantation versus a photovoltaic array needs to be based on a common framework for assessing the options, a framework that includes not only time frames, but also ancillary costs and benefits (Edmonds, Chapter 23). All of the decisions that underlie the transition to a sustainable energy future require placing the decision in a larger context (Raupach et al., Chapter 6). Institutions, culture, economic resources, and perspectives on intergenerational equity all shape opportunities for and constraints on managing the carbon cycle.

Meeting Future Challenges Each of the themes that emerged from the RAP on the carbon cycle tends to make the climate problem more difficult to solve. The role of land management in current sinks suggests that future sinks from CO2 fertilization will be smaller than past estimates. Inertia in the human system extends the timeline for developing and implementing solutions. Land ecosystems appear to be vulnerable to large releases of carbon, including releases from several mechanisms that have been absent from or incomplete in the models used for past assessments. Strategies for increased energy efficiency, carbon sequestration, and carbon-free energy are abundant, but no single technology is likely

1. The Global Carbon Cycle | 11

to solve the climate problem completely in the next few decades. A portfolio approach is the best option, but many of the elements of the portfolio are implicitly present in economic scenarios that fail to meet stabilization targets. Finally, each of the strategies for increased energy efficiency, carbon sequestration, or carbon-free energy involves a series of ancillary costs and benefits. In the broad context of societal issues, the ancillary effects may dominate the discussion of implementation. How should an appreciation of the new dimensions of the climate problem change strategies for finding and implementing solutions? The most obvious conclusion is that the problem of climate change warrants more attention and higher priority. It also warrants a broader discussion of strategies, a discussion that should move beyond land, atmosphere, oceans, technology, and economics to include serious consideration of equity, consumption, and population.

Acknowledgments The very able Scientific Steering Committee for the RAP on the carbon cycle included Niki Gruber, Jingyun Fan, Inez Fung, Jerry Melillo, Rich Richels, Chris Sabine, and Riccardo Valentini. Assistance from Susan Greenwood, John Stewart, Véronique PloqFichelet, and Daniel Victoria made the process run smoothly. Jan Brown was a dedicated and efficient volunteer editor. The RAP for the carbon cycle was supported by funds from the A. W. Mellon Foundation, the National Science Foundation (USA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan), and the European Union. The city of Ubatuba, Brazil, provided a stimulating and enjoyable venue for developing the ideas discussed in this volume.

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Bolin, B., B. R. Döös, J. Jäger, and R. A. Warrick, eds. 1989. The greenhouse effect: Climatic change and ecosystems. SCOPE 29. Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley and Sons for the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment. Cubasch, U., G. A. Meehl, G. J. Boer, R. J. Stouffer, M. Dix, A. Noda, C. A. Senior, S. Raper, and K. S. Yap. 2001. Projections of future climate change. Pp. 525–582 in Climate change 2001: The scientific basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), edited by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Friedlingstein, P., K. C. Prentice, I. Y. Fung, J. G. John, and G. P. Brasseur. 1995. Carbon-biosphere-climate interactions in the last glacial maximum climate. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres) 100:7203–7221. Hoffert, M. I., K. Caldeira, G. Benford, D. R. Criswell, C. Green, H. Herzog, A. K. Jain, H. S. Kheshgi, K. S. Lackner, J. S. Lewis, H. D. Lightfoot, W. Manheimer, J. C. Mankins, M. E. Mauel, L. J. Perkins, M. E. Schlesinger, T. Volk, and T. M. L. Wigley. 2002. Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: Energy for a greenhouse planet. Science 298:981–987. Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, eds. 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Langenfelds, R., R. Francey, B. Pak, L. Steele, J. Lloyd, C. Trudinger, and C. Allison. 2002. Interannual growth rate variations of atmospheric CO2 and its δ13C, H2, CH4, and CO between 1992 and 1999 linked to biomass burning. Art. no. 1048. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16:1048. Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, and C. Stephens. 2000. Warming of the world ocean. Science 287:2225–2229. McAvaney, B. J., C. Covey, S. Joussaume, V. Kattsov, A. Kitoh, W. Ogana, A. J. Pitman, A. J. Weaver, R. A. Wood, and Z.-C. Zhao. 2001. Model evaluation. Pp. 471–523 in Climate change 2001: The scientific basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), edited by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. McCarthy, J. J., O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, and K. S. White, eds. 2001. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Asessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Metz, B., O. Davidson, R. Swart, and J. Pan, eds. 2001. Climate change 2001: Mitigation (Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Michaelson, G., C. Ping, and J. Kimble. 1996. Carbon storage and distribution in tundra soils of Arctic Alaska, USA. Arctic and Alpine Research 28:414–424. Nepstad, D., G. Carvalho, A. Barros, A. Alencar, J. Capobianco, J. Bishop, P. Moutinho, P. Lefebvre, U. Silva, and E. Prins. 2001. Road paving, fire regime feedbacks, and the future of Amazon forests. Forest Ecology and Management 154:395–407. Prentice, I. C. 2001. The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Pp. 183–237 in Climate change 2001: The scientific basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third

1. The Global Carbon Cycle | 13 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), edited by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Schimel, D. S., J. I. House, K. A. Hibbard, P. Bousquet, P. Ciais, P. Peylin, B. H. Braswell, M. J. Apps, D. Baker, A. Bondeau, J. Canadell, G. Churkina, W. Cramer, A. S. Denning, C. B. Field, P. Friedlingstein, C. Goodale, M. Heimann, R. A. Houghton, J. M. Melillo, B. M. Moore III, D. Murdiyarso, I. Noble, S. W. Pacala, I. C. Prentice, M. R. Raupach, P. J. Rayner, R. J. Scholes, W. L. Steffen, and C. Wirth. 2001. Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Nature 414:169–172.

PA R T I Crosscutting Issues

2 Current Status and Past Trends of the Global Carbon Cycle Christopher L. Sabine, Martin Heimann, Paulo Artaxo, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Chen-Tung Arthur Chen, Christopher B. Field, Nicolas Gruber, Corinne Le Quéré, Ronald G. Prinn, Jeffrey E. Richey, Patricia Romero Lankao, Jayant A. Sathaye, and Riccardo Valentini

In a global, long-term perspective, the record of atmospheric CO2 content documents the magnitude and speed of climate-driven variations, such as the glacial-interglacial cycles (which drove CO2 variations of ~100 parts per million [ppm] over 420,000 years). These observations also, however, document a remarkable stability, with variations in atmospheric CO2 of 10,000

10 0.0% Medium 15 0.6% Medium 10 0.4% Low

2 0.3%

Low

400 150 150

20

1% 6% 6%

3.3%

Medium Low

Low

Circulation Circulation/salinity/T Circulation/nutrients/ internal dynamics Circulation/ nutrients/internal dynamics

60–80 200–700 ?

?

Extremely low

Ocean temperature

Note: T = temperature; R = respiration; Ra = autotrophic respiration; Rh = heterotrophic respiration; NPP = net primary production aWe define vulnerability as the maximum part of the total carbon stock that could be released into the atmosphere over the time scale indicated. bSubjective assessment of our confidence cOnly the fraction that causes a change in atmospheric CO is given here. The true changes in the pool are about five times larger 2

None None Coastal eutrophication/ deliberate fertilization/ fisheries Coastal eutrophication/ deliberate fertilization/ fisheries

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While the past 10 years have seen a large increase in the understanding of the presentday global carbon cycle and its anthropogenic CO2 perturbation (Sabine et al., Chapter 2, this volume), scientists’ understanding of how the carbon cycle will evolve into the 21st century and how it will interact with human actions and the physical climate system is overall still poor. This chapter is intended as one step on a long road to accurately incorporating the full suite of carbon-climate-human feedbacks in numerical models. In assessing the future dynamics of the global carbon cycle, the natural starting point is the current status of the carbon cycle. This aspect is extensively reviewed by Sabine et al. (Chapter 2). We, therefore, concentrate only on those aspects that may cause a change in the carbon cycle over the next 100 years. In the next sections, we first briefly review the expected future trends in the climate system under typical IPCC scenarios. From these changes, we attempt to determine the strengths and vulnerability of the land and ocean carbon sinks in the 21st century.

Setting the Stage: The Earth System in the 21st Century The vulnerability of many carbon cycle processes and pools depends on the magnitude of future climate change. The magnitude of future climate change, in turn, depends on the vulnerability of the carbon cycle. Therefore there is no unique answer, but it is nevertheless instructive for our ensuing analysis to put some bounds on the expected climate change. Cubasch et al. (2001) provide a comprehensive review of the projected climate change for the 21st century on the basis of coupled atmosphere-ocean-land climate models and for a large range of radiative forcing projections. For the IS92a emission scenario, they project a mean warming of 1.3˚C for the mid-21st century (2021–2050) relative to the 1961–1990 average, with a range from +0.8˚C to +1.7˚C. This estimate includes the effect of sulphate aerosols, whereas the effect from greenhouse gases alone would be about 0.3˚C higher. For the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 emission scenarios,1 the mean and range are very similar for the same time period. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2100), the mean global surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.0˚C, with a range from 1.3˚C to 4.5˚C, while for the B2 scenario the mean temperature change is +2.2˚C and the range is +0.9˚C to +3.4˚C. These individual scenarios can be compared with the full set of scenarios, for which Cubasch et al. (2001) give a range of +1.4˚C to +5.8˚C. Unfortunately, no comprehensive coupled climate models have simulated climate change using WRE (Wigley, Richels, Edmonds 1996) stabilization trajectories. Instead, to estimate the temperature changes associated with the WRE scenarios, Cubasch et al. (2001) used a simple climate model (Raper and Cubasch 1996) that has been tuned to the results of a number of comprehensive climate models. They find for the WRE 450 scenario (assuming stabilization at an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppm), a temperature change between +1.2˚C and +2.3˚C for the latter part of this century,

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increasing to +1.6˚C to +2.9˚C for WRE550, and +1.8˚C to +3.2˚C for WRE650. The general pattern of warming is relatively uniform across a large range of models and generally consists of maximum warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum in the Southern Ocean. There is also a general tendency for the land to warm more than the ocean. In some cases, even more important for the global carbon cycle is the projected change in the hydrological cycle. While uncertainties and intermodel differences are substantially larger for the hydrological cycle than for the projected temperature changes, the following trends appear to be quite robust: a general increase in the intensity of the hydrological cycle—that is, an increase in mean water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation; and a tendency for an increase in precipitation in the tropics and in the high latitudes and a reduction in precipitation in the subtropical latitudes (Cubasch et al. 2001). As the coupling between the carbon cycle and human systems is tight, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle, common features and regional differences in the development of population, the economy, and social systems in the 21st century are crucial in determining whether certain pools become at risk (Romero Lankao, Chapter 19, this volume). The SRES story lines of Nakicenovic et al. (2000) provide a basis for evaluating these interactions. In the A1 and B1 scenarios, global population is expected to increase to 9 billion people in 2050 and to decrease thereafter to about 7 billion people in 2100. In the A2 and B2 scenarios, global population is expected to grow continuously in the 21st century. Raupach et al. (Chapter 6, this volume) assess some impacts of these scenarios on land use change. We expect that the A2 scenario will lead to highest pressures on local resources, because of the underlying assumption of regionally different impacts on land, and “low incomes in developing countries lessening their ability to meet food demand by improved management or technology” (Raupach et al., Chapter 6). In summary, the expected stresses on the global carbon cycle might range from relatively small to very substantial, depending on greenhouse gas emission pathways, the magnitude of climate sensitivity, and the development of human systems with regard to their pressure on terrestrial carbon resources. Given this non-negligible risk, it is of great importance to assess the magnitude of the carbon system feedbacks in greater detail. We do not adopt any specific emission scenario or climate sensitivity but tend to use the upper-bound scenarios, consistent with quantifying the maximum expected vulnerability (note that these are nonintervention scenarios, i.e., scenarios that do not contain purposeful human action to curb emissions or increase sinks).

Land Sinks and Their Vulnerability How will future anthropogenic emission pathways affect the terrestrial carbon cycle? As summarized in Sabine et al. (Chapter 2, this volume), the land biosphere has acted as a substantial net sink for carbon over the past 20 years, removing on average about 0.6

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petagrams of carbon (PgC) per year (y-1) from the atmosphere. This net sink is the residual of a land use change flux of the order of 1.2 PgC y-1 (DeFries et al. 2002) and an inferred uptake of the order of 1.8 PgC y-1 (Table 2.1 and Colorplate 1 in Sabine et al., Chapter 2). Assessing the responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the projected climate and human factors in the 21st century will require separating the processes that lead to sources from those that lead to sinks. This attribution task is complicated, because the carbon balance on land is, in general, a small difference between large fluxes in and out. As a consequence, modest proportional changes in fluxes in or out of a pool can have a large impact on the magnitude of the residual sink.

Terrestrial Living Biomass Living biomass on land contains about 650 PgC, which is slightly less than the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. With an average residence time of about 10 years, the turnover of this pool is relatively fast, making a substantial fraction of this pool potentially vulnerable on timescales of decades to centuries. It is also likely that most of the carbon gained by the terrestrial biosphere over the past few decades has entered this pool and has not progressed in any substantial manner into the longer-lived soil pools (Schlesinger and Lichter 2001). The biomass pool can expand only slowly as a result of increased plant growth or decreased disturbance, but this pool can be degraded quickly, especially with natural and human-induced disturbances. Land Sinks in the 21st Century As discussed in Sabine et al. (Chapter 2), scientists’ perspective on the current terrestrial carbon balance has changed dramatically over the past decade. A decade ago, it was assumed that the entire land sink is a result of CO2 fertilization, and perhaps warming (Houghton et al. 1990). This view has been supplanted by an appreciation of the fact that the current and future land sinks are most likely the result of many factors, including land use history and land cover management, and that CO2 fertilization is likely smaller than previously assumed (e.g., Pacala et al. 2001). These changes in knowledge are only beginning to be incorporated into terrestrial carbon cycle models (McGuire et al. 2001). In both the Hadley and IPSL models discussed earlier (Cox et al. 2000; Dufresne et al. 2002), CO2 fertilization is assumed to be the main driver of the present and future terrestrial carbon sink. In the absence of climate change, the projection from these two models is that CO2 fertilization would be responsible for a cumulative land uptake of 600 PgC for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (Friedlingstein et al. 2003). In the Hadley model, a substantial fraction of the carbon that is being released back into the atmosphere as a result of surface warming comes from soil pools that have grown significantly during the 20th and 21st centuries as a result of CO2 fertilization. Projections of large sinks from CO2 fertilization are difficult to reconcile with the present understanding of the current land carbon cycle, where a

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number of constraints (Field et al. 1992) are likely to limit potential land sinks from CO2 fertilization to the order of 100 PgC over the next 100 years. The contribution of land use history to the future land sink is rather uncertain. In general, forest sinks due to regrowth of previously harvested forests tend to saturate as a forest matures or are rapidly converted to large sources in forests disturbed by fire, storms, or disease. Key controllers of the future trajectory of sinks in Northern hemisphere forests include the forest age structure, changes in the disturbance regime, and changes in management (Nabuurs, Chapter 16, this volume). The land sink in the 21st century as a result of historical land use change is, at maximum, on the order of 170 PgC (House et al. 2002). This amount assumes that all carbon lost as a result of the past land use change could be stored back on land. A realistic estimate should be less than half this number, since humans still use most of the land deforested in the past and since the land not used for food production is often of poor quality. From the perspective of the carbon budget of the 21st century, a slowing of deforestation has the same effect as a decrease in fossil emissions or an increase in a land or ocean sink. In addition, reforestation and afforestation may be increasingly important aspects of future carbon management. The extent to which new forest sinks can be realized must be consistent with other societal constraints on available land (Raupach et al., Chapter 6, this volume). The need for expanded areas for agriculture and for replacement of degraded agricultural lands, plus constraints of climate and water availability, are likely to be profoundly important. Given these constraints, reforestation and afforestation are likely to continue to generate carbon sinks throughout the 21st century, but their magnitudes are unlikely to be much more than a few Pg for the next 20 years and a few tens of Pg for the entire 21st century. Woody encroachment, including the establishment of trees and shrubs on grassland, as well as the thickening of open forests, has been an important aspect of land dynamics on several continents over the last century (Sabine et al., Chapter 2). The driving factors for woody encroachment are too poorly known to support a quantitative estimate of future changes, particularly since its net contribution to atmospheric CO2 can be positive or negative. We expect this process, however, to be a relatively small contributor, and one whose future carbon trajectory will be primarily determined by human actions. Fires are a major factor in the terrestrial carbon cycle, annually returning more than 3 PgC to the atmosphere (see Colorplate 1 of Sabine et al., Chapter 2). Because fire has always been a part of the land biosphere and recovery from fires is slow, its role as a carbon source or sink depends on fire frequency and intensity trends over decades to centuries rather than on present burning. Over the past few decades, some regions have probably experienced carbon sinks as a consequence of the success of fire suppression (Sabine et al., Chapter 2). It is unclear whether this trend will continue, as fuels accumulate. We believe that the carbon sink that arises from fire suppression is going to be very small in this coming century but that an increase in fire frequency and intensity is a significant concern (see below).

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In summary, the sink potential in living terrestrial biomass over the next 20 years is modest, on the order of a few tens of Pg. Terrestrial sinks may grow somewhat from current levels, but societal and natural limits from land use, fire, and nutrient availability will operate as constraints. Over the next 100 years, some mechanisms and societal drivers contributing to land sinks will continue to operate, but not all (see Raupach et al., Chapter 6, this volume) giving rise to a maximum potential sink of the order of 150 PgC. Potential Vulnerability of the Land Pools The carbon pools on land also have the potential to release substantial amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Many of the mechanisms that are responsible for generating current sinks are closely related to mechanisms that can lead to future sources of carbon to the atmosphere. Probably the largest future vulnerability of land pools arises from land use change and deforestation, particularly if the world develops along lines similar to those described in the A2 story line—that is, a world in which countries develop in a very heterogeneous pattern. The exact magnitude of the pools at risk is difficult to assess, but we expect that the carbon stored in the living biomass in tropical and subtropical ecosystems is the most vulnerable. Based on past trends, we estimate that on the order of 40 PgC carbon stored in the living biomass might be at risk over the next 20 years, and up to 100 PgC over the course of the 21st century. More subtle changes to land ecosystems, such as humaninduced degradation and increases in mortality due to pests might increase this estimate, but probably not by a significant amount. Deforestation has a number of other implications for climate and the carbon cycle. One set of effects concerns albedo. Boreal deforestation leads to large increases in albedo, with a cooling effect that may be larger than the warming related to the CO2 release (Bonan et al. 1992; Betts et al. 1997). In the tropics, the albedo effect is much smaller, and effects of rooting depth on transpirable soil moisture may feed back to increase local temperature and decrease precipitation (Shukla et al. 1990). Finally, deforestation also removes the potential that growth of an established forest can serve as a carbon sink. A second important mechanism that could lead to substantial losses of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere is the redistribution of species and biomes as a result of climate change. It is estimated that the entire terrestrial biosphere gained about 500 PgC between the last glacial maximum (about 20,000 years ago) and the ensuing Holocene (Sigman and Boyle 2000). Whereas the postglacial warming of about 5K occurred over 10,000 years, however, global warming over the next century might result in a similar temperature change, but over a timescale of 100 years. This climate perturbation is likely to occur at a rate exceeding the capacity of plant species to adapt, resulting in a total rearrangement of species and communities. This change will result in transient carbon losses that can eventually be recovered, but only over a much longer timescale (Smith and Shugart 1993).

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In the Northern Hemisphere, a warming may lead to a forest dieback at the southern boundaries of presently forested regions, although increase in spring or fall temperature may extend the growing season length of temperate and boreal ecosystems. Invasive species could spread in these regions. Direct human action on species composition, however, including establishment of plantations of non-native “exotic” species, is also likely to continue. The net effect on carbon reservoirs is difficult to estimate but is more likely to be a source than a sink, and the total forest area is more likely to shrink than to expand. In the tropics, warming and increased aridity may lead to a size reduction of the tropical forests (Cox et al. 2000). Given that tropical forests contain the largest carbon pool of terrestrial biota and also the largest net primary production (see Table 2.2 in Sabine et al., Chapter 2), this reduction will likely lead to a release of carbon to the atmosphere. In summary, we estimate that on the order of 40 PgC carbon stored in the living biomass might be at risk over the next 20 years, and up to 100 PgC over the course of the 21st century. This risk arises mostly from deforestation and other anthropogenic land use changes, An additional 10 PgC (20 years) and 100 PgC (100 years) is probably at risk as a result of climate change—that is, the inability of communities to adapt to a changed climate.

Soil Carbon Soil carbon is by far the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems. As summarized in Colorplate 1 of Sabine et al. (Chapter 2), about 2300 PgC is stored in the upper 3 meters (m) of tropical, temperate, and boreal soils. Carbon stocks in wetland and permanently frozen soils are much less certain and are usually not included in carbon cycle models. These stocks are in the range of 200–800 PgC in wetland soils and 200–800 PgC in (nonwetland) permafrost soils. There is therefore more than five times more carbon stored in soils than in the living biomass on land. This large organic carbon reservoir is the result of a delicate balance between biomass accumulation by photosynthesis and oxidation by respiration. Most of this soil carbon is in long-lived pools and therefore relatively inert. Over the course of this century, however, a substantial fraction of this pool might be mobilized. Given the very different dynamics of the various soil pools, we review separately the wetland, the frozen, and the “other” soil pools. Tropical, Temperate, and Boreal Soils: Potential Sinks and Vulnerability Carbon sequestration in soil can be achieved through changes in agricultural practices (i.e., no tillage) or with land use changes, such as reforestation of degraded lands. The global potential for carbon sequestration in soils is estimated to be about 0.9 ± 0.3 PgC y-1, with different patterns and rates in European cropland (Smith et al. 2000), U.S. cropland (Lal et al. 1998), and degraded lands (Lal 2003). These estimates of carbon sequestration potential do not account for limitations due to land use, erosion, climate

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change or economic, social, and political factors (Raupach et al., Chapter 6, this volume). Increased net primary production (NPP) resulting from fertilization of plant growth by elevated CO2 and nitrogen deposition will tend to increase soil carbon. If these increases are not offset by increased decomposition in a warmer climate, the equilibrium increases in soil carbon should reach the same proportional size as the NPP stimulation. Assuming a fertilization effect of the order of 20 percent of NPP and equilibrium conditions for organic matter decomposition, the maximum possible increase in soil C from CO2 and N effects is on the order of 300 PgC over the 21st century. This is considerably smaller than the more than 600 PgC accumulation simulated in the Hadley model. Losses of soil carbon can be caused by decreased inputs from NPP, accelerated decomposition, and increased losses from erosion and combustion. Each of these mechanisms has human and natural drivers (e.g., deforestation, increasing energy consumption, diversion of water bodies). Boreal soils contain huge stocks of carbon. These stocks could increase if tree growth increases in a warmer climate (Dufresne et al. 2002), but they could also decrease, especially if increases in decomposition are larger than increases in NPP or if an increase in fire frequency and magnitude reduces the input of carbon to the soil. Increasing temperature and more frequent droughts (due to increase of climate variability) can enhance desertification in subtropical and tropical regions, stimulating losses of soil carbon. Soil erosion due to changes in the hydrological cycle is also a major disturbance to soil carbon in the semi-arid regions. Climate regulates carbon release by soils through effects of temperature and soil moisture changes. The way in which these two factors interact, however, is highly nonlinear and often opposite (i.e., a temperature increase will increase soil carbon losses while a soil moisture decrease will reduce decomposition but increase soil temperature). In areas where increased temperature and associated drought are expected, the predictions of increased losses of soil carbon losses are debatable. The two coupled climate-carbon simulations from Hadley and IPSL simulate a total loss of soil carbon as high as 600 PgC by the end of the 21st century. As stated earlier, however, these estimates should be seen as unlikely upper estimates as the carbon release is fueled by a large accumulation of soil carbon, resulting from CO2 fertilization. We estimate from FLUXNET data (Sanderman et al. 2003) that about 8 kilograms (Kg) C per square meter (m-2) in 100 years could be potentially released by soils as a result of changes in climate, assuming a temperature change of 4˚C. This amount reflects a potential loss of about 280 PgC in the next century. Land use change, however, is the major driver of carbon losses in the soil. Since 1850 between 45 and 90 PgC (Houghton et al. 1999; Lal 1999), have been lost through cultivation and disturbances. One of the main characteristics of land use effects is that carbon fluxes are pulsed in response to disturbance frequency and intensity. The effects of such pulses can persist for several years after disturbances and are usually one of the major uncertainties in current models.

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Land use change pulses of carbon are also directly influenced by climate-human interactions (i.e., desertification, which is the result of human pressure and aggravated temperature and water impacts). Thus the interaction of direct human effects with climate impacts can amplify the carbon losses, particularly in developing regions. An analysis of recent studies on the impact of land use conversion on soil carbon stocks suggests that up to 50 percent of the total pool of soil carbon can be lost in 50–100 years after conversion (Schulze et al. 2003). Of course not all the land use changes occur in organic rich soils. We therefore estimate that about 25 percent of the total soil carbon pool is vulnerable over the course of this century, equivalent to about 400 PgC. Wetlands and Peatlands: Potential Sinks and Vulnerability Wetland carbon fluxes are controlled by climate and land use change. Climate drivers include temperature effects on carbon and other greenhouse gas (mainly CH4) fluxes. In addition, changes in hydrology can have pronounced effects on both carbon and other greenhouse gas fluxes. Temperature increases stimulate both CO2 and methane emissions, while changes in the water table have contrasting effects on those two fluxes. Drainage stimulates oxidation of organic material and release of CO2; in contrast, increasing water levels reduces CO2 emission but stimulates anaerobic decomposition and methane fluxes to the atmosphere. To estimate the vulnerability of wetland pools of carbon to climate effects requires a detailed analysis of the interaction between CO2 and other trace gases. The global warming potential (GWP) of methane is about 20 times larger than that of CO2. Therefore, a change in the ratio of methane to CO2 respiration will have a climate impact. Christensen et al. (1996) showed that large northern wetlands, for example, are leading to a net increase in radiative forcing because of their large methane emissions even though they are a net carbon sink. On a global scale, this net source of radiative forcing is equivalent to about 0.5 PgC y-1. Assessing the future evolution of the wetland and peatland emissions of CO2 and CH4 is very difficult, as this depends critically on temperature and water levels. If we accept the climate projections that regions that are already receiving substantial rainfall will receive even more in a future warmer climate, then we would expect an increase in the water level, stimulating the production of methane. In addition, higher temperatures would lead to an increase in respiration rates. Both factors conspire to give a relatively high sensitivity of the carbon pools in wetlands and peatlands. A rough estimate is that a CO2 equivalent of about 100 PgC will become vulnerable in the next 100 years. An interesting aspect of the interaction between CO2 and CH4 emissions in both natural and human-managed wetlands and peatlands is that drainage control provides the possibility of generating a sink potential, as a lowered water table reduces CH4 emissions at the expense of an increase in the CO2 emissions. Other environmental concerns (loss of biodiversity, habitats, etc.) should also be considered, however.

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Permafrost: Potential Vulnerability Permanently frozen soils contain a very large pool of carbon, the result of a gradual accumulation over thousands of years. As long as these soils are frozen, the carbon they contain is essentially locked away from the active part of the carbon cycle. When they thaw, however, the carbon becomes vulnerable to rapid loss. Using results from several climate models, all scaled to a global mean warming of 2˚C, Anisimov et al. (1999) estimate that the area of permafrost could shrink by about 25 percent. They also estimate an increased summer thaw depth in the areas that maintain permafrost. Current knowledge is too incomplete to convert this loss of area into a loss of carbon, but the pool of carbon vulnerable to this relatively modest warming could total more than 100 PgC. If a substantial fraction of the C loss occurs as methane emissions, as is typical of wetlands, the impact on radiative forcing will be amplified. Assuming that total permafrost carbon is 400 Pg and 20 percent is lost in the next century, the potential release is 80 PgC.

The Ocean Sink and Its Vulnerability The ocean represents the largest reservoir of carbon in the global carbon cycle (see Colorplate 1 of Sabine et al., Chapter 2) and has taken up approximately 30 percent of the total anthropogenic emissions since the beginning of the industrial period, constituting the second-largest sink of anthropogenic carbon after the atmosphere itself (Le Quéré and Metzl, Chapter 12; Sabine et al., Chapter 2). Therefore, relatively small changes in the oceanic reservoir and its current sink activity may have a large impact on the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2.

The Ocean Sink Potential in the 21st Century On millennial timescales, more than 95 percent of the anthropogenic CO2 will be taken up by the ocean (Archer et al. 1997). On timescales of decades to centuries, however, this large sink potential can be realized only to a limited degree, with the rate-limiting step being the transport of the anthropogenic carbon from the surface into the interior of the ocean (Sarmiento et al. 1992). Because the primary driving force for the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the magnitude of the oceanic sink in the 21st century depends on the magnitude of the atmospheric perturbation. In the absence of major feedbacks, paradoxically, the higher the anthropogenic CO2 burden in the atmosphere, the higher the oceanic sink is going to be. Throughout the anthropocene, the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 has scaled nearly linearly with the anthropogenic perturbation of atmospheric CO2 (Gloor et al. 2003) (0.027 ± 0.008 PgC y-1 ppm-1). This is because the atmospheric CO2 so far has grown quasi exponentially, and the rate-limiting process is linear. This scaling cannot be extrapolated far into the future, as the atmospheric growth rate may change sub-

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stantially. More important, this scaling is expected to decrease over time as the continued uptake of CO2 by the ocean decreases the oceanic uptake capacity for a given change in atmospheric CO2 (Greenblatt and Sarmiento, Chapter 13, this volume). Using this linear scaling and projected atmospheric CO2, we estimate the maximum oceanic sink potential for the next 20 years in the absence of climate change to be on the order of 60–80 PgC. This estimate compares well with estimates from ocean models that were forced using the IS92a scenario (Watson and Orr 2003). The maximum oceanic sink for the next 100 years is more difficult to estimate as it depends strongly on the atmospheric CO2 level attained. If we adopt 1,000 ppm as the upper envelope, the cumulative ocean uptake over the next century, in the absence of climate change, might approach 600–700 PgC. In the case of the stabilization scenarios, the oceanic sink is going to be substantially smaller, as the slower growth rate and the smaller atmospheric CO2 burden both lead to a reduction in the uptake.

Oceanic Carbon Pools and Processes at Risk How sensitive is this oceanic sink to natural and human-induced changes over the next 20 to 100 years? Greenblatt and Sarmiento (Chapter 13, this volume) review and discuss several detailed studies on the basis of coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Plattner et al. (2001) provide a very detailed analysis of the nature and magnitude of the various feedbacks using a model of intermediate complexity. The goal here is to put these results in perspective by analyzing and assessing the pools and processes that might become at risk in the 21st century from a systems perspective. It is thereby instructive to differentiate between the factors that affect the physical/chemical uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and those that change the natural carbon cycle in the ocean. The former feedbacks are associated with the anthropogenic CO2 perturbation in the atmosphere, whereas the latter feedbacks are independent of the anthropogenic CO2 changes in the atmosphere and arise because of changes in climate and other factors. Table 3.2 gives a summary of the six feedbacks that can either accelerate or decelerate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the ocean. InsertTable3.2

Chemistry Feedback The feedback that is understood and quantified best is the reduction of the oceanic uptake capacity as a consequence of the uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere (see Figure 13.3 in Greenblatt and Sarmiento, Chapter 13, this volume). In addition to lowering the uptake capacity for anthropogenic CO2, this reaction also lowers the pH of the ocean, which could have potentially important consequences for ocean biology and coral reefs (discussed later in this chapter). Sarmiento et al. (1995) demonstrated that the magnitude of the chemistry feedback for the next 20 years remains small but could lead to reduction of more than 30 percent in the cumulative uptake over the next 100 years, with the exact magnitude depending on the size of the anthropogenic perturba-

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Table 3.2. Summary of marine carbon cycle feedbacks Estimate for Process Anthropogenic CO2 uptake feedbacks Chemical feedback Circulation feedback (anthropogenic CO2) Natural carbon cycle feedbacks Temperature/salinity feedback Ocean biota feedback

Feedback

20 years 100 years Uncertainty/ (PgC) (PgC) understanding

Positive Positive

1 km) geological formations. Candidates include injection into spent gas fields, injection into depleted oil fields to stimulate additional (secondary) recovery, injection into deep briny aquifers, and injection into coal beds that are too deep for economic production. Table 5.3 provides a very preliminary estimate of reservoirs capacities. In some parts of the world, large-volume deep injection of fluids already occurs. For example, the United States already injects a mass of fluids into geologic reservoirs larger than the mass of all CO2 produced by U.S. power plants (Wilson and Keith 2002). These fluids are principally wastewaters from municipalities and oil and gas operations (and, to a lesser extent, CO2 for secondary oil recovery). InsertTable5.3here

Fraction of injected CO2 remaining in the ocean

5. A Portfolio of Carbon Management Options | 117 1 2,000 m

3,000 m

1,000 m

0.8

3,000 m

0.6 2,000 m

0.4

0.2

0

Atmospheric release

200

1,000 m

400 600 Time (y)

800

1000

Figure 5.2. Representation of model results for direct injection of carbon into the ocean at three depths under two different boundary conditions (Caldeira et al. 2001). The solid lines represent the fraction of carbon that would be found in the ocean at any time after an initial injection at 1,000 m, 2,000 m, or 3,000 m depth. Most of the CO2 added to the ocean through direct injection will remain in the ocean essentially forever. The dashed lines show all the carbon leaking out of the ocean on the timescale of several hundred years. This subtracts from the amounts shown in the solid lines the CO2 that has leaked to the atmosphere but was then reabsorbed by the ocean. The solid lines represent the amount of carbon found in the ocean, but the dashed lines show the amount of CO2 storage credited to ocean sequestration

We currently have a very limited understanding of how to accurately characterize and license geological reservoirs for CO2, monitor possible leakage of CO2 from reservoirs, and assess and deal with potential ecological and other risks (Wilson and Keith 2002). Direct Oceanic Injection of Carbon Dioxide The ocean is the principal sink for absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. This capacity arises from the alkalinity of seawater and the reaction of CO2 with dissolved carbonate to form bicarbonate in the ocean waters. The ocean surface waters now absorb ~25 million tons of CO2 per day. The ocean will eventually absorb up to 85 percent of all atmospheric fossil-fuel CO2. Most of the CO2 added to the ocean through direct injection will remain in the ocean over geological time periods. An important issue is how to credit ocean sequestration for carbon in the ocean, taking into account the fact that most of the CO2 released to the atmosphere would have entered the ocean on this timescale anyway (Figure 5.2). InsertFigure5.2

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Total fossil fuel CO2 emissions to the atmosphere today are ~6 petagrams of carbon (PgC) y-1, of which ~2 PgC y-1 enter the ocean. If we were to permit atmospheric CO2 levels to rise to ~ 600 parts per million (ppm), then surface ocean waters would experience an acidification of ~0.3 pH units. If all ocean waters were to experience ~0.3 pH reduction, then the quantity of CO2 absorbed would be ~1,800 PgC.1 Thus stabilization at an atmospheric pCO2 of ~600 ppm would commit us to ~1,800 PgC of ocean carbon storage. The ultimate capacity of the ocean is large, and direct injection of CO2 into deep (~3,000 m) ocean waters (bypassing the atmospheric step with its attendant global warming) would in theory be possible in very large quantities (Herzog et al. 2001). Technological capability for this already exists, making it a high-capacity and quickly available option. Possibilities exist for making ocean sequestration more permanent and reducing pH consequences using the dissolution of carbonate minerals; furthermore, it may be possible to use carbonate neutralization as a flue gas separation process with long-term ocean storage (Kheshgi 1995; Caldeira and Rau 2000). Significant barriers remain, however: There are a limited number of power plants close to deep ocean waters; public acceptance may not be forthcoming; the London Convention could prohibit this option; and the impact of increased CO2 on deep-sea ecosystems is poorly understood. Research to investigate the potential and risks of ocean storage options is an important priority. Accelerated Chemical Weathering A basic approach to neutralizing carbon acidity is to dissolve carbonate or silicate minerals. Accelerated weathering of carbonate minerals could be used to store carbon in the ocean for tens of thousands of years (Kheshgi 1995; Caldeira and Rau 2000). Like deep ocean injection, this approach raises legal, social, and environmental issues associated with the use of the oceans as a disposal site. In contrast, accelerated weathering of silicate minerals could potentially lead to carbon storage as a solid carbonate mineral (Lackner 2002). The process is exothermic, but the kinetics are very slow. Thus, the potential for accelerated weathering to make a difference in the next 50 years must be regarded as speculative.

Potential for Abating Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Sources Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and black carbon are responsible for about 45 percent of total anthropogenic radiative forcing (Houghton et al. 2001), a magnitude that provides substantial opportunities for abatement. These gases include CH4, N2O, tropospheric O3, and halocarbons (Prinn, Chapter 9, and Robertson, Chapter 29, both this volume). The total anthropogenic flux of CH4 is 344 Tg CH4 y-1, equivalent to 2.1 PgCequiv -1 y (based on a 100-year GWP time horizon). About half of this flux (1.1 PgCequiv) is

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of agricultural origin; the remainder is from energy extraction and production, industrial combustion, and landfills (Houghton et al. 2001; Robertson, Chapter 29, Table 29.3). There are multiple options for reducing the total CH4 flux; for example, industrial sources including landfills have declined in the United States by 7 percent since 1990 largely owing to the economic value of methane recovery. If these efficiencies were applied more broadly, we might expect to achieve a 10 percent global flux reduction in the next 20 years and a 25 percent reduction in the years following. The large agricultural CH4 flux is mainly from enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, biomass burning, and livestock waste treatment. Current technology is available to abate 10–30 percent of emissions from confined animals via nutritional supplements, as is now common in U.S. feedlots and dairies. With adoption of best management practices, methane in rice can be reduced substantially; recent results suggest a potential for 50–80 percent abatement based on irrigation management and management for high yields (Robertson, Chapter 29). Likewise, technology is available now to abate most CH4 from animal waste by storing waste in lagoons and generating power from the captured methane; such use has a net negative carbon cost. Modest abatement of these fluxes in the next 20 years and in some cases more aggressive abatement afterward, together with industrial savings, could generate a total abatement of 75 PgCequiv over 100 years. N2O fluxes can also be mitigated. The total anthropogenic flux of N2O is 8.1 TgN2O-N y-1, equivalent to 1.0 PgCequiv y-1. More than 80 percent of this flux (0.9 PgCequiv) is from agriculture; most of the rest is from the industrial production of adipic and nitric acids and combustion. Agricultural soils emit annually about half of the entire anthropogenic flux; waste handling in feedlots and dairies generates about 25 percent of the flux, and biomass burning and industry generates the remainder (Table 5.4). Technology is now available to abate most of the industrial sources of N2O, and N2O from waste handling could be largely comitigated with CH4 waste management abatement (as described above). Agricultural soils are more problematic; soils emit N2O largely as a function of available soil N, and although it is easy to reduce soil N, it is difficult to do so without affecting yields. Better nitrogen placement and timing could reduce current fertilizer needs and therefore N2O flux by perhaps 20 percent using today’s technology, which is the basis for our 20-year abatement estimate (Table 5.4); further mitigation using site-specific farming technologies, varietal improvements for plant nitrogen-use efficiency, and new forms of fertilizer and nitrification inhibitors could lead to 80 percent mitigation in 20–50 years. If so, total 100-year N2O abatement could reach 75 PgCequiv. Other non-CO2 greenhouse gases, notably the halocarbons, the ozone precursors CO and NOx, and black carbon, are also abatable. Although GWPs for the ozone precursors are at present uncertain and for black carbon unknown, best estimates suggest InsertTable5.4

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Table 5.4. Potential for non-CO2 greenhouse gas abatement and biosphere carbon storage

Gas/source CH4 Industry including landfills Agriculture Enteric fermentation Rice cultivation Biomass burning Animal waste treatment Total agricultural CH4 Total anthropogenic CH4 N2O Industry, transport Agriculture Soils Animal waste treatment Biomass burning Total agricultural N2O Total anthropogenic N2O Other Halocarbons Ozone precursors (CO, NOx) Black carbon Total other gases Biosphere carbon storage Agricultural soils Reforestation/agroforestry Improved management Agroforestry + afforestation Cessation of deforestation Total forestry Total biosphere C storage

Current flux strength (TgCeq y-1)

Feasible abatement rate (TgCeq y –1) 0–20 y 20–100 y >100 y

Total abatement (PgCeq /100y)

1,016

100

250

250

22

590 251 213 88 1,142 2,158

60 160 20 75

300 160 50 75

300 160 50 75

25 16 4 8 53 75

165

80

130

130

12

533 266 63 862 1,027

100 200 6 306 386

425 250 30 705 835

425 250 30 705 835

36 24 3 63 75

98 1650 nd 1748

10 150

75 750

90 1500

160

825

590

6 63 nd 69

0

300

500

0

46

0 0 0

170 200 100 470 770

150 100 200 450 950

0 0 0 0 0

15 12 18 45 91

Note: Current flux strengths are based on Houghton et al. (2001) and other sources (see Prinn, Chapter 9; Smith, Chapter 28; and Robertson, Chapter 29; all this volume). nd = currently not determinable because of GWP uncertainty.

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a total source strength >1.6 PgCequiv y-1, of similar importance to CH4 and N2O (Prinn, Chapter 9, this volume). Mitigation potentials appear to be of a similar magnitude.

Biological Sinks and Source Reduction Forest Management and Other Activities in the Biosphere Forests cover 42 × 1012 m2 globally (Sabine et al., Chapter 2, this volume); some 21 percent (~7 × 1012 m2) can be considered managed in some direct manner. Forest carbon storage can be achieved by three principal means: (1) improve the management of currently forested areas, (2) expand the area currently forested via afforestation and agroforestry, and (3) reduce the rate of deforestation. All of these measures aim to adapt management to alter the balance between carbon fluxes into the system (photosynthesis) and fluxes out (plant and soil respiration and harvest), resulting in increased carbon stocks or avoided emissions. Potential forest sequestration approaches 1 PgC y-1 (Watson et al. 2000); more realistic estimates of achievable sequestration are on the order of 0.17 PgC y-1 from improved management of existing forests and 0.2 PgC y-1 from establishment of new forests on formerly wooded and degraded lands (Watson et al. 2000). Financial costs are modest to high in Annex I countries (US$3 to $120 per ton C) and often small elsewhere (US$0.2 to $29 per ton C). Management measures to improve carbon storage in forestry include prolonging rotations, changing tree species, continuous-cover forestry, fire control, combined water storage with peat swamp afforestations, fertilization, thinning regimes, and mixed species rotations, among others. At some point management improvements will saturate forest carbon sinks; after 100 years of improved management, it is unlikely that any further net storage will occur. Cessation of deforestation is another major means for improving biosphere carbon storage in forests. Complete cessation of the current 1.8 PgC y-1 is unrealistic for a variety of reasons but nevertheless offers the single largest potential for forest carbon sequestration. Tropical forests and peatlands are at particular risk. With respect to peatlands, it is important to ensure that water tables are maintained so that C continues to be sequestered, especially in the face of global warming at high latitudes. Although reversing deforestation is a laudable goal, it will be difficult to implement, govern, or reinforce without tangible socioeconomic incentives. Verification also poses difficulties. Over the next 20 years we estimate that with proper incentives 0.1 PgC yr-1 could be saved from deforestation, and twice this amount in the period afterward. Once the biosphere is essentially deforested, of course, this potential savings becomes nil. Despite large attention for carbon storage measures in the political discussions before and after the Conference of the Parties in Kyoto, only a limited number of example projects are underway. Together they affect only some tens of millions of hectares. There are a number of reasons for this: (1) the biosphere inherently shows a large nat-

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ural dynamic, thus creating uncertainty and risk; (2) political discussions have been lengthy and outcomes uncertain; (3) biospheric sinks will eventually saturate in the future; (4) many other aims for land management exist (food, fiber, biodiversity, water storage), and all these aims have to be met in an integrated way; and (5) a verification infrastructure must be created and maintained. Agricultural Carbon Capture in Soils Some 40–90 PgC has been lost in agricultural soils since the onset of cultivation. Recapturing some portion of this carbon forms the basis for the soil carbon sequestration sink. The most optimistic estimates of soil carbon sequestration place potential rates of net carbon capture at 0.9 PgC y-1, which would restore most of the lost carbon within 50–100 years; more measured estimates place the potential at 0.3–0.5 PgC y-1 (Smith, Chapter 28, this volume). Soil carbon can be built through a variety of agronomic techniques, usually based on increasing plant carbon inputs, slowing soil carbon decomposition rates, or (more commonly) both. Carbon inputs can be enhanced by growing more high-biomass crops, by leaving more crop biomass to decompose in situ, by increasing belowground net primary production (NPP), and by growing cover crops during portions of the year that the soil would otherwise remain fallow. Decomposition rates can be slowed by reducing tillage and by growing crops with low residue quality—that is, containing organic carbon that is less susceptible to microbial attack. If financial incentives were sufficient, agronomic management for carbon storage could lead to the sequestration of 0.3 PgC y-1 within the first 20 years of adoption and on average 0.5 PgC y-1 for the following 80 years, providing a 100-year total of 46 PgC mitigation. After this period the soil sink will be essentially saturated and sequestration rates will be nil (Table 5.4). Iron Fertilization of the Ocean Sinking organic matter transports carbon from the near-surface ocean to the deep ocean. It has been suggested that the addition of trace nutrients such as iron could enhance this sinking flux and thus act as a way to store additional carbon in the deep ocean, where it is relatively isolated from the atmosphere. Field experiments of iron addition to the ocean have yielded convincing evidence (e.g., Coale et al. 1998) that productivity can increase several fold within weeks, and there is some evidence that export of organic matter from the surface ocean increases after both experimental and natural iron additions (Bishop et al. 2002). Theory and experimental evidence suggest, however, that most of the exported carbon will return to the surface layers within decades. It has been suggested that iron fertilization could represent an inexpensive carbon storage option; however, widely discussed cost estimates are questionable as they typically have been based on implausible assumptions including that exported carbon has high C/Fe ratios, that all of the added organic carbon exported from the euphotic zone

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is balanced by a corresponding CO2 influx from the atmosphere, and that CO2 taken up by the ocean through iron fertilization remains there for a long time. Model simulations involving extreme assumptions (e.g., complete phosphate utilization south of 31˚S) indicate maximum sustained carbon uptake rates of < 1 PgC y-1. Realizable sequestration potential is likely to be much less.

Advanced Noncarbon Technologies Advanced noncarbon technologies, such as nuclear fission or fusion, space solar power, and geoengineering, could potentially play an important role in climate stabilization. Several of these technologies are controversial, in early stages of development, or both. Until an option can be shown not to be viable, however, we should work to understand the option’s potential benefits and drawbacks. Nuclear Fission Nuclear fission is an existing technology that could help stabilize climate. In some countries (e.g., France) nuclear power generates a substantial fraction of electricity, thus displacing CO2 emissions that might otherwise occur. Fission involves generating electricity by splitting heavy atomic nuclei, most commonly U235, into lighter atomic nuclei. Present nuclear reactor technology provides CO2-free electricity while posing unresolved problems of waste disposal and nuclear weapons proliferation. The supply of fissile material, which depends on price, can be extended greatly through the use of breeder reactors; however, such reactors could greatly exacerbate nuclear weapons proliferation. Fission can potentially play a large role in providing carbon-free energy, if the issues of safety, waste disposal, weapons proliferation, resource availability, and public acceptance can be adequately addressed. Nuclear Fusion Fusion involves generating electricity through the joining or fusing of light atomic nuclei to form heavier atomic nuclei. Fusion power holds the promise of a nearly inexhaustible source of climate-neutral energy. It is unlikely, however, that fusion power will be commercially available in the time frame needed to stabilize climate (Hoffert et al. 2002), although it may play a role in maintaining climate stability in future centuries. Space Solar Power Solar power satellites could be constructed to generate power in Earth orbit or on the moon and beam that power to the Earth (Hoffert et al. 2002). Advantages of the space environment include higher and more consistent solar fluxes (avoidance of clouds, day-night cycle, etc.). Currently, however, launch costs make this approach uneconomical. In general, space power options require very large scales before economies of scale can be realized. Furthermore, there are environmental and public health concerns.

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Public resistance to beaming energy through the atmosphere to Earth’s surface is likely. Space power will probably not be economically feasible during this century. Geoengineering It has been suggested that climate change induced by anthropogenic CO2 could be costeffectively counteracted with geoengineering schemes designed to diminish the solar radiation incident on, or absorbed by, Earth’s surface. Several schemes have been proposed; these schemes typically involve placing reflectors or other light scatterers in the stratosphere or in orbit between the Earth and Sun, diminishing the amount of solar radiation incident on the Earth (Keith 2000; Govindasamy and Caldeira 2000). Less exotic, biosphere-based geoengineering approaches are possible, although they may be impractical or expensive or have other undesirable consequences. For example, the albedo of large-scale forests could be increased through selective logging. Changing C4 grasses to C3 grasses could partition more available energy into latent heat rather than sensible heat, thus cooling the planetary surface. There are serious ethical, environmental, legal, technical, and political concerns associated with intentional climate modification. For example, political tensions could be heightened if countries were to undertake geoengineering efforts without first obtaining international consensus. It has been suggested that geoengineering should be researched as an emergency backup strategy in case we needed to head off a truly threatening climate change catastrophe (e.g., runaway methane hydrate degassing [see Gruber et al., Chapter 3, this volume]). Any geoengineering scheme is likely to have negative consequences, which would need to be carefully studied before any serious consideration of deployment.

Cross-Cutting Issues The Role of Uncertainty Although we have tried in the preceding discussion to provide some rough quantification of the potential magnitude of the contribution that may be achieved through various management options, as well as the timescale on which it may be possible to achieve these contributions, it is important to recognize that there is great uncertainty about both the cost and the efficacy of many options. We do not view these uncertainties as a basis for delay or inaction (Caldeira et al. 2003). The evidence of a growing problem is sufficiently compelling that action is clearly needed today. Economic, business, and ecological theory suggests that when faced with large uncertainty, the best option is to invest in a broad portfolio that creates a diversity of future options. Our ability to project population, per capita GDP, political and social revolutions, and so on, is quite limited (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000). For example, the widely used IS92a scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was tech-

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nologically overoptimistic but failed to anticipate reduced CO2 emissions associated with the end of the Soviet Union; thus the IS92a scenario overestimated year 2000 CO2 releases. Experts meeting a century ago could not have anticipated developments like world wars, jet travel, nuclear power (and its rejection in many places), the computer, and the Internet. We assume we are in an equally disadvantageous position regarding the prediction of technical, social, and political innovation likely to occur this century.

The Essential Role of Research In contrast to other important industrial sectors, such as microelectronics and pharmaceuticals, which invest 10 percent or more of gross revenues in research, the energy sector has long had among the lowest research and development (R&D) investments of any major industrial sector.2 Although concern about the need to deal with the problem of climate change has begun to spark modest increases in private and public research investment, the magnitude of those investments remains dramatically low given the magnitude of the challenge the world faces. One of the issues that has been consistently lacking in the national and international discourse on greenhouse gas (GHG) policy has been a focus on finding ways to divert a modest portion of the large monetary flows that will be involved in any serious management program into investments into research, development, and demonstration.

Enabling Technologies As shown in some of the comments in the right column of Table 5.2, a number of technologies, although not direct options for managing radiative forcing, will be essential for implementing some of the options we have identified. For example, if cost-effective carbon-free strategies for producing hydrogen fuel can be developed, then cost-effective strategies for compact hydrogen storage and conversion (e.g., fuel cells) become important. Similarly, energy storage technologies and/or highly efficient long-distance transmission of electric power (e.g., by superconducting cables) will be critical to making large-scale use of wind or photovoltaics a practical reality.

Barriers to Implementation Engineers frequently adopt the view that “if we build it (so that it is cheap and effective) they will come.” The reality is that large-scale technology adoption and diffusion are often much more complicated and uncertain. Even when there are no major barriers to adoption, it may take several decades or more for a new technology to become widely used because old capital stock remains economically attractive and personnel are slow to understand and appreciate the benefits of new technology. Beyond this, in many cases large vested interests have a stake in sustaining old technologies. These interests

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often work actively to impede the introduction of new competing technologies. Frequently regulatory or similar barriers inhibit introduction. For example, in many countries electric utilities are granted exclusive service territories, making it illegal for a private entrepreneurial company to introduce microgrid systems built on small-scale combined heat and power distributed generation (which is more energy efficient than central station power). At the same time, traditional utility companies may see little or no incentive to invest in such technology. Social acceptability can also play an important role in the rate at which a new technology is adopted. As already noted, social concerns are often not founded on a full understanding of a technology, its strengths and weaknesses, and those of available alternatives. In such cases the professional community has an obligation to provide leadership and keep important options open for development and evaluation. But technology proponents also have a long history of arrogantly ignoring legitimate public concerns, consequently fostering a climate of mistrust and hostility that makes rational public decision making difficult or impossible.

Ancillary Benefits of CO2 Stabilization Technologies Probably the single greatest motivation for adopting a new technology is direct cost: If it is cheaper than existing technologies it is adopted quickly. Externalities rarely figure into private sector motivations unless encouraged with government incentives or regulatory structures. Nevertheless, a number of mitigation options have ancillary benefits that can substantially multiply their value to GHG mitigation per se. Biosphere sequestration of carbon and mitigation of non-CO2 fluxes are two areas that can have substantial societal value beyond GHG mitigation. Organic carbon sequestered in soil contributes to soil and hence ecosystem health, with benefits for soil and water conservation, nutrient storage, porosity, invertebrate biodiversity, plant health, and ground and surface water quality. Carbon sequestered in reestablished and regrowing forests has similar benefits for forested watersheds, in addition to abetting plant and animal biodiversity. Thus, organic carbon storage has important practical implications for drinking water quality, coastal fisheries, farmland quality, and flood protection. Reducing the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases also provides ancillary benefits. N2O suppression through the better management of nitrogen in cropping systems will help to keep exogenous nitrogen from environmental fates other than crop yields (e.g., air pollution). At present the amount of nitrogen fixed by anthropogenic means is close to that fixed biologically; because less than half of the fertilizer applied to cropping systems is taken up by the crop and the remainder is available to cause significant environmental harm. Likewise CH4 capture from waste handling can provide energy savings for individual farms and perhaps rural communities, and composted waste applied to soils can substitute for synthetic fertilizer, with its economic and CO2 manufacturing cost.

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Additionally, industrial capture of carbon and higher carbon use efficiency in the industrial and transport sectors will lead to the emission of fewer industrial non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Black carbon, while not a gas, is nonetheless responsible for about 7 percent of the radiative forcing attributable to anthropogenic sources, and cleaner power generation will reduce radiative forcings from this source. Likewise, lower emissions of the ozone precursors—namely NOx, CO, and the non-methane volatile organic carbons (NMVOCs)—will potentially reduce concentrations of tropospheric ozone, responsible for about 12 percent of total anthropogenic radiative forcing (see Prinn, Chapter 9, and Robertson, Chapter 29). NOx reductions will attenuate both rainfall acidity and much of the unintentional nitrogen deposition now occurring over much of the Earth’s surface (Holland et al. 1999).

Conclusions Stabilizing climate will require massive changes in the design and operation of the energy system, in the management of forests and agriculture, and in several other important human activities. Yet we do not currently have sufficient knowledge to efficiently and effectively make the changes necessary to stabilize climate at acceptable levels. A portfolio of options is required because no single technology or approach will be sufficient, although over time specific options may assume dominant roles. The development of expanded use of conservation and renewables is important, as is fossil-fuel carbon capture and sequestration. The suggestion that just one of these options could solve the entire problem, however, fails to recognize technical and economic realities. Furthermore, desirable portfolio options will vary by location. A failure to adopt a portfolio approach runs the risk of delaying implementation and dramatically increasing the cost of controls. Technologies and approaches for achieving stabilization will not arise automatically through market forces. Markets can effectively convert knowledge into working solutions, but the needed knowledge can only be developed with dramatically larger investments in basic technology research, in efforts to understand consequences of new energy systems, and in efforts to understand ecosystem processes. The technical community must provide leadership in a wide-ranging search for options. Incomplete expert or public understanding or short-term political or business agendas cannot be allowed to short-circuit the search for promising solutions. This search must include pilot experiments to gain hands-on experience with many different technologies and approaches. This approach would enable creation of essential skills and experience needed to develop systems of energy production and use to develop land management options, and to promote climate stabilization and vigorous economic growth.

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Notes 1. 1 PgC = 1015 gC = 1 GtC = 1,000 TgC = 3.7 Gt CO2 = 8.3 × 1013 mol C. 2. For example, the U.S. electricity industry invests on the order of 0.3 percent of gross sales in basic technology research.

Literature Cited Bishop, J. K. B., R. E. Davis, and J. T. Sherman. 2002. Robotic observations of dust storm enhancement of carbon biomass in the North Pacific. Science 298 (5594): 817–821. Caldeira, K., and G. H. Rau. 2000. Accelerating carbonate dissolution to sequester carbon dioxide in the ocean: Geochemical implications. Geophysical Research Letters 27:225–228. Caldeira, K., H. Herzog, and M. Wickett. 2001. Predicting and evaluating the effectiveness of ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection. In First national conference on carbon sequestration. Washington, DC: National Energy Technology Laboratory. http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/p48.pdf. Caldeira, K., A. K. Jain, and M. I. Hoffert. 2003.Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for non-CO2-emitting energy sources. Science 299 (5615): 2052–2054. Coale, K. H., K. S. Johnson, S. E. Fitzwater, S. P. G. Blain, T. P. Stanton, and T. L. Coley. 1998. IronEx-I, an in situ iron-enrichment experiment: Experimental design, implementation and results. Deep-Sea Research Part II–Topical Studies in Oceanography 45 (6): 919–945. Freund, P., and W. G. Ormerod. 1997. Progress toward storage of carbon dioxide. Energy Conversion and Management 38 (Supplement): S199–S204. Govindasamy, B., and K. Caldeira. 2000. Geoengineering Earth’s radiation balance to mitigate CO2-induced climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 27:2141–2144. Herzog, H. J., and E. M. Drake. 1996. Carbon dioxide recovery and disposal from large energy systems. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 21:145–166. Herzog, H., E. Drake, and E. Adams. 1997. CO2 capture, reuse, and storage technologies for mitigating global climate change: A white paper. DOE Order No. DE-AF2296PC01257. MIT Energy Laboratory, MIT, Cambridge, MA. http://sequestration.mit.edu/pdf/WhitePaper.pdf. Herzog, H., K. Caldeira, and E. Adams. 2001. Carbon sequestration via direct injection. Pp. 408–414 in Encyclopedia of ocean sciences, Vol. 1, edited by J. H. Steele, S. A. Thorpe, and K. K. Turekian. London: Academic Press. Hoffert, M. I., K. Caldeira, A. K. Jain, E. F. Haites, L. D. D. Harvey, S. D. Potter, M. E. Schlesinger, S. H. Schneiders, R. G. Watts, T. M. Wigley, and D. J. Wuebbles. 1998. Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content. Nature 395:881–884. Hoffert, M. I., K. Caldeira, G. Benford, D. R. Criswell, C. Green, H. Herzog, J. W. Katzenberger, H. S. Kheshgi, K. S. Lackner, J. S. Lewis, W. Manheimer, J. C. Mankins, G. Marland, M. E. Mauel, L. J. Perkins, M. E. Schlesinger, T. Volk, and T. M. L. Wigley. 2002. Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: Energy for a greenhouse planet. Science 295:981–987.

5. A Portfolio of Carbon Management Options | 129 Holland, E. A., F. J. Dentener, B. H. Braswell, and J. M. Sulzman. 1999. Contemporary and pre-industrial global reactive nitrogen budgets. Biogeochemistry 46:7–43. Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, eds. 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Keith, D. W. 2000. Geoengineering the climate: History and prospect. Annual Review of Energy and Environment 25:245–284. Keith, D. W., and M. G. Morgan. 2002. Industrial carbon management: A review of the technology and its implications for climate policy. Aspen Global Change Institute. http://www.agci.org/cfml/programs/eoc/ASPEN/science/eoc00/eoc00.cfm. Kheshgi, H. S. 1995. Sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide by increasing ocean alkalinity. Energy 20:915–922. Lackner, K. S. 2002. Carbonate chemistry for sequestering fossil carbon. Annual Review of Energy and Environment 27:193–232. Lightfoot, H. D., and C. Green. 2002. An assessment of IPCC Working Group III findings in climate change 2001: Mitigation of the potential contribution of renewable energies to atmospheric carbon dioxide stabilization. Report No. 2002-5. Montreal: McGill Centre for Climate and Global Change Research. McGrail, B. P., S. P. Reidel, and H. T. Schaef. 2002. Use and features of basalt formations for geologic sequestration. In Sixth international conference on greenhouse gas control technologies, edited by N. Matsumiya. Kyoto, Japan: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth. Metz, B., O. Davidson, R. Swart, and J. Pan, eds. 2001. Climate change 2001: Mitigation (Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Nakicenovic, N., and R. Swart, eds. 2000. IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Watson, R. T., I. R. Noble, B. Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, D. J. Verardo, and D. J. Dokken. 2000. Land use, land-use change, and forestry. A special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Wilson, E. J., and D. W. Keith. 2002. Geologic carbon storage: Understanding the rules of the underground. In Sixth international conference on greenhouse gas control technologies, edited by N. Matsumiya. Kyoto, Japan: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth.

6 Interactions between CO2 Stabilization Pathways and Requirements for a Sustainable Earth System Michael R. Raupach, Josep G. Canadell, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Philippe Ciais, Maria José Sanz, JingYun Fang, Jerry M. Melillo, Patricia Romero Lankao, Jayant A. Sathaye, E.-Detlef Schulze, Pete Smith, and Jeff Tschirley

Efforts to stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration take place within a fully coupled Earth system in which there are major interactions between the carbon cycle, the physical climate, and human activities. Hence it is necessary to consider atmospheric CO2 mitigation in the context of the Earth system as a whole and its long-term sustainability. “Sustainability” and “sustainable development” have been defined in a number of ways. The Brundtland Report (World Commission on Environment and Development 1987) defined sustainable development as “development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” In practice, definitions of sustainable development hinge on several key issues: what has to be sustained, what has to be developed, for how long, and with what tradeoffs. It is necessary to consider economic, social, and environmental dimensions and to accommodate the different perspectives of each dimension as well as the interrelations between them. For the purposes of this chapter, we will follow the consensus of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (1996), which identified the major challenges for global sustainable development as (1) combating poverty; (2) protecting the quality and supply of freshwater resources; (3) combating desertification and drought; (4) combating deforestation; (5) promoting sustainable agriculture and rural development; and (6) conserving biological diversity. To this list may be added the goal of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system, 131

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implying the need to stabilize the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and CO2 in particular. This chapter examines the challenge of achieving CO2 stabilization in the context of the requirements for a sustainable Earth system, broadly defined as above. We have three objectives, each the topic of a major section. First, we sketch a systems framework for analyzing CO2 stabilization pathways within the full range of carbon-climatehuman interactions. Second, we identify the wider economic, environmental, and sociocultural implications of a large number of carbon management options in order to provide information about these implications for the systems analysis. Third, we consider a particular important case (land-based mitigation) in more detail. An overall synthesis concludes the chapter.

A Systems Analysis The Carbon Cycle and the Stabilization Challenge We begin with the familiar aggregate atmospheric CO2 budget, written in the form

dt

= FLand + FOcean + FFoss + FLULUC + FSeq + FDisp

(1)

             

dCA

Indirect human influence

Direct human influence

where CA is the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere. The fluxes on the right-hand side, which change CA, include the land-air and ocean-air fluxes (FLand , FOcean ); industrial (mainly fossil fuel) emissions (FFoss ); fluxes from land use and land use change (FLULUC ) excluding managed sequestration; managed terrestrial and ocean biological carbon sequestration (FSeq ); and engineered disposal of CO2 in land or ocean reservoirs (FDisp ). Fluxes from the atmosphere (uptake to land and ocean pools) are negative. All these fluxes are influenced by human activities, in the sense that they are different from what they would have been without human intervention in the carbon cycle. We can, however, distinguish different levels of human influence. Some fluxes are linked with identifiable human actions as proximate causes: for instance, fossil-fuel burning, land clearing, or managed CO2 sequestration. Others are influenced by human actions only through changes in the Earth system, such as rising atmospheric CO2, rising average temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and changes in nutrient cycles. The distinction is not absolute, but it is important because the directly human-influenced fluxes are candidates for carbon management. Therefore we identify some fluxes in equation (1) (FFoss , FLULUC , FSeq, FDisp ) as “directly influenced” by human activities and others (FLand , FOcean ) as “indirectly influenced,” with the fluxes in former group being actually or potentially directly manageable.

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Most of the fluxes in equation (1) depend on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. These dependencies (often called “feedbacks”) are both direct and indirect. The direct feedbacks occur through physical and biological mechanisms like CO2 fertilization of carbon uptake into terrestrial and marine pools, while the indirect feedbacks occur through climate properties like temperature, light, precipitation, and ocean circulation, which influence the fluxes. Climate, in turn, is responding to a range of “climate forcings,” including CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse forcing, solar variability, and volcanogenic aerosols. The result is that the fluxes in equation (1) depend on the atmospheric CO2 level (CA ) both directly through physics and biology and indirectly through climate. Through this dual set of dependencies, the behavior of the fluxes in response to rising CA can potentially change drastically as CA itself rises; for example, negative (stabilizing) feedbacks can be replaced by positive (destabilizing) feedbacks through mechanisms like a shift in the land-air flux toward CO2 emission as respiration increases with warming, or a substantial change in the oceanic thermohaline circulation. Such possible changes in system behavior, or “vulnerabilities” in the carbon-climatehuman system, are associated with nonlinearities or thresholds in the relationships between fluxes (F ), atmospheric CO2 (CA ), and climate (see Gruber et al., Chapter 3, this volume, for more discussion of vulnerabilities). Their significance here is that they have major implications for efforts to stabilize atmospheric CO2. At present, the largest of the directly human-influenced fluxes in equation (1) is the fossil-fuel emission (FFoss ). This can be expressed1 as a product of five driving factors:

  

e

  

  

     

  

g

E F  Foss  Foss = Pgefi E E Pri Foss   

P

E  Pri G

  

G

FFoss = P 

f

i

(2)

where P is population, G is gross world economic product, EPri is global primary energy,2 and EFoss is the primary energy generated from fossil fuels. Key ratios among these variables are the per capita gross economic product ( g = G/P), primary energy per unit economic product (e = EPri /G ), fraction of primary energy from fossil fuel ( f = EFoss/EPri ), and carbon intensity of energy generation from fossil fuel (I = FFoss/EFoss ). We note that ge = EPri /P is the per capita primary energy. The sum of the directly humaninfluenced fluxes in equation (1) now becomes FDHI = FFoss + FLULUC + FSeq + FDisp = Pgefi + FLULUC + FSeq + FDisp

(3)

Table 6.1 gives current global average values for quantities in equations (3) and (1). Of course, these averages mask huge regional differences (Romero Lankao, Chapter 19, this volume). InsertTable6.1here

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Table 6.1. Current (1990–1999) global average values for terms in the global carbon budget and the quantities P, ge, f, i Quantity DCA/dt F = FOcean +FLand FDHI =

FFoss +FLULUC +FSeq +FDisp

EPri P ge = EPri /P f i

Description

Value

Unit y-1

Growth rate of atmospheric CO2 +3.3 PgC Indirect human-induced C flux to atmosphere –4.7 PgC y-1 = ocean-air flux –1.7 + land-air flux –3.0 Direct-human-induced C flux to +8.0 PgC y-1 atmosphere = industrial (mainly fossil fuel) emission +6.4 + disturbance flux from land use change +1.7 + managed terrestrial C sequestration –0.1 + engineered disposal of CO2 –0.0 Primary energy 12 TW 3.8 × 1014 MJ y-1 Population 6.0 × 109 Humans Per capita primary energy 2.0 kW human-1 6.3 × 104 MJ y-1 human-1 Fraction of energy from fossil fuel 0.85 — Carbon intensity of energy generation from fossil fuel

19.9

gC MJ-1

Reference Prentice et al. (2001) Prentice et al. (2001)

Prentice et al. (2001)

Hoffert et al. (2002) Calculated using ge = EPri /P Hoffert et al. (2002) Calculated using FFoss = Pgefi

Of the eight quantities (P, g, e, f, i, FLULUC , FSeq , FDisp ) determining the directly human-influenced fluxes through equation (3), six are associated with strategies for carbon mitigation: • e: energy conservation and efficiency (while maintaining economic well-being, g); • f: use of non-fossil-fuel energy sources; • i: more carbon-efficient energy generation from fossil fuels; • FLULUC : reduction of carbon emissions from land disturbance; • FSeq : managed sequestration of carbon in terrestrial or oceanic biological sinks; and • FDisp : engineered disposal of CO2 in geological or oceanic repositories. The other two quantities (P and g) are not regarded here as carbon mitigation strategies. That is, we do not consider options for reducing fossil-fuel emissions by lowering population (P) or economic well-being (g). Nakicenovic (Chapter 11, this volume) discusses trends in both variables. We turn now to the stabilization challenge. A stabilization trajectory for directhuman-induced emissions, FStab(t), is a (non-unique) trajectory for the directly humaninfluenced carbon flux, FDHI (t) = FFoss + FLULUC + FSeq + FDisp, such that the atmospheric CO2 level (CA ) is eventually stabilized (dCA /dt = 0) at a given target level (Wigley et al.

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1996; Houghton et al. 2001, Figures 3.13 and 9.16). Examples are shown in Figure 6.1. Stabilization trajectories are determined by the feedbacks between the fluxes in equation (1), particularly FLand and FOcean , and the atmospheric CO2 level (CA ). Stabilization trajectories have several important features: first, FStab(t) increases initially and then peaks and declines to near zero in the far future (and for low stabilization CO2 targets FStab can actually become negative). Second, the lower the stabilization CO2 target, the sooner and lower is the allowed emissions peak. Third, short-term trajectories of FStab(t) (over the next decade) do not depend much on the selected stabilization CO2 target. Fourth, it is crucial to note the implications of the vulnerabilities associated with possible positive feedbacks in the relationships between CO2, fluxes, and climate. These vulnerabilities add considerable uncertainty to stabilization trajectories, especially when the stabilization CO2 target is high. The higher the target, the greater is the magnitude of likely climate change and the greater the probability of carbon-climate feedbacks becoming important. In extreme cases, positive feedbacks could prevent stabilization from being achieved at all. A quite different picture emerges from consideration of the direct-human-induced C flux FDHI (equation (3)), especially its fossil-fuel component. At present, fossil fuels represent about 85 percent of the 12 TW of primary energy generated by human societies (Table 6.1). Future human energy demand will increase substantially (though far from uniformly across regions and scenarios), in response to both increasing population (P) and increasing globally averaged per capita energy use (EPri /P = ge) associated with globally rising standards of living. If a significant fraction of this demand is met from fossil fuels, the trajectory for FDHI is likely to be far from that required for stabilization. Emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al. 2000; Edmonds et al., Chapter 4, this volume; Nakicenovic, Chapter 11, this volume) give an internally consistent set of assumptions for the time trajectories of the quantities P, g, e, f, i, FLULUC , FSeq , and FDisp , which influence FDHI . Under most (though not all) scenarios, FDHI (t) substantially exceeds the human-induced C flux required for stabilization, FStab(t). The difference FDHI (t) – FStab(t) is called the carbon gap. To give an idea of the relationship between stabilization requirements and possible trajectories of the terms in equation (3), Figure 6.1 shows how these terms evolve over the next century from their current values (Table 6.1) under simple growth assumptions for three cases (see Figure 6.1 caption). Case 1 approximates the well-known IS92a scenario (Houghton et al. 1996) and includes no mitigation through FLULUC, FSeq, and FDisp except for a decreasing land disturbance emission. It does include some “default” or “business-as-usual” mitigation through negative values for the growth rates of f and i, as is commonly done in baseline scenarios (Edmonds et al., Chapter 4, this volume). Case 2 includes major mitigation through FLULUC , FSeq , and FDisp but is otherwise the same as Case 1. Case 3 includes major mitigation in all terms (e, f, i, FLULUC , FSeq , FDisp ) and produces a trajectory for FDHI that approximates a stabilization trajectory. This figure shows that major mitigation through sequestration and disposal (Case 2) cannot InsertFigure6.1

Figure 6.1. (a) Scenarios for the directly human-induced C flux (FDHI ) in three cases,

compared with approximate stabilization trajectories (FStab ) for stabilization at 450, 650, and 1000 ppm (Wigley et al. 1996). (b, c, d) Carbon fluxes contributing to FDHI for Cases 1, 2, 3, respectively. Cases assume that per capita primary energy ge grows geometrically, f, i and FLULUC decline geometrically, and FSeq and FDisp grow linearly, at constant rates shown in the inset table. Case 1 is a typical “business as usual” case approximating the IS92a scenario (see text). Case 2 includes major land-based mitigation. Case 3 additionally includes major energy-sector mitigation.

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achieve stabilization unless there is also major mitigation in the energy sector (Case 3). Our intention here is not to construct self-consistent scenarios like those described in Edmonds et al. (Chapter 4, this volume), but only to indicate the orders of magnitude of the terms in equation (3), their trends under simple constraining assumptions, and how those trends relate to stabilization requirements.

Trajectories of the Carbon-Climate-Human System as Emergent Properties It might seem that closing the carbon gap is simply a matter of managing the future values of the quantities P, g, e, f, i, FLULUC , FSeq , and FDisp , which determine the total directhuman-induced flux FDHI (t), so that its trajectory conforms with a stabilization trajectory FStab(t). Of course, the real world is not like this “command and control” or “rational” decision-making model (Keely and Scoones 1999). All these quantities are internal variables in a coupled carbon-climate-human system and are constrained by numerous interactions with other variables. The future trajectory of the system, and of each of its components, is an emergent property—that is, a property of component interactions rather than the result of external control. To explore these constraints and interactions, we consider the multiple effects of a portfolio of mitigation options or technologies. These options may include any of those listed after equation (3), together with abatement of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and other sectors. The effect of any one mitigation technology can be described by its technical potential (T ) and its uptake proportion (u), where T is the maximum mitigation or carbon equivalent avoided emission (in tCeq per year) that can be achieved by the technology, subject only to biophysical constraints such as resource availability; and u is a number between 0 and 1 determining how much of the technical potential is actually utilized, subject to additional economic, environmental, and sociocultural factors. The achieved mitigation from a portfolio of options will then be u1T1 + u2T2 + . . . , where the subscripts refer to different technologies. A range of constraints and driving factors influence the uptake of a mitigation technology, and the effort devoted to maximizing its technical potential. Briefly (pending more detailed discussion in the next subsection), these include: • climate factors: the need to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system by minimizing CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions (the direct purpose of mitigation); • economic factors, including the competitiveness of energy options, the material and energy intensities of economic growth, access to markets, and industrialization pathways; • non-greenhouse environmental factors, including the provision and maintenance of ecosystem services such as clean air, clean water, and biodiversity; and

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• social, cultural, and institutional factors, including consumption patterns, lifestyles, class structures, incentives, policy climates, and demographics at scales from local to global. To account for these influences, we consider “utility functions” or “benefit functions” UClim , UEcon , UEnv , and USoc that quantify the effects of the portfolio of mitigation options in climate, economic, environmental, and sociocultural spheres. These functions may be either positive (net benefits) or negative (net costs). They reflect all aspects of societal well-being and are not confined to measurement in economic terms. They depend on the uptake proportions of the various mitigation options: thus, UEcon = UEcon (uk ) (where the subscript k distinguishes the various technologies) and similarly for UEnv and USoc . A major part of the climate utility UClim is clearly the total achieved mitigation u 1T1 + u 2T2 + . . ., though there may be climate costs as well, for instance through adverse effects of land use change on regional climates (Betts et al. 2000) or increased N2O emissions from higher fertilizer use. It is possible to consider the overall utility or net benefit from the portfolio of mitigation options, UTotal , accounting for benefits and costs in all spheres. This is a combination of the utilities UClim , UEcon , UEnv , and USoc . There is a substantial literature from the discipline of welfare economics on the formulation and properties of such overall utility measures (see, for example, Brock et al. 2002). Here it suffices to assume that UTotal is the weighted sum UTotal = wClim UClim (uk ) + wEconUEcon(uk ) + wSocUSoc(uk ) + wEnvUEnv(uk ) (4) where the weight factors w describe the relative importance that a society gives to each component of the overall utility of the portfolio of options. The uptake proportions uk can now be formally specified as the quantities uk(t), which maximize the overall utility, integrated over some time period, subject to several basic constraints: that energy supply meets demand and that requirements are met for other basic resources such as water, food, and land. It is also possible to regard the technical potentials Tk as variable to maximize UTotal , to the extent that the technical potentials are influenced by societal choices such as investment in research and development. Thus, both uk and Tk emerge as “control variables” in a constrained optimization. This is merely an indicative analysis rather than a quantitative recipe. Even so, several features emerge. First, major variables determining the outcome are the weights w, which express the economic, environmental, sociocultural, and policy priorities emerging from societal institutions and structures. These weights are key “levers” influencing future trajectories of the energy system and more generally the carbon-climate-human system. Second, diverse societies have different institutions, structures, and priorities. The analysis and the outcomes are therefore both regionally specific. A major point of intersection between regions is that they all share the atmosphere as a global commons and hence all pay a climate-change cost as a result of global fossil-fuel emissions. Even so, climate-change impacts and hence the nature of this cost are different among regions.

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Third, the existence of benefits as well as costs is of great significance. Here are two examples: (1) a switch to clean fuels or renewables is likely to have benefits for regional air quality, and (2) more efficient transport systems in cities usually confer net social and urban-environment benefits. Such benefits in the non-greenhouse aspects of the overall utility are crucial in adding to the likelihood that real greenhouse mitigation will occur through changes in energy use. Fourth, there are synergisms between different constraints (or different components of the overall utility in equation (4)). For example, if the technology for a massive switch to biofuels were available at reasonable cost, consequences would include declines in the availability of land for agriculture, biodiversity, and carbon stocks in forest ecosystems. This point is expanded later. Finally, the uptake of mitigation options is constrained by technological and institutional inertia or contingent history: for example, it is not usually practical to change technologies at a rate faster than the turnover time of the infrastructure (see Caldeira et al., Chapter 5, this volume).

Diversity of Influences on Carbon Mitigation Strategies We now consider in more detail the diverse factors affecting the uptake of a particular carbon mitigation strategy. Figure 6.2 is a graphical representation of the factors influencing the difference between the technical potential of a particular mitigation strategy and the actual, achieved mitigation. The horizontal axis is the mitigation potential, measured by the total amount of carbon-equivalent greenhouse forcing avoided (in tCeq per year, for example), and the vertical axis is the price of carbon (in dollars per tCeq), a measure of the weight ascribed to carbon mitigation relative to other goals. The maximum mitigation that can be achieved by a strategy is its technical mitigation potential, based solely on biophysical estimates of the amount of carbon that may be sequestered or greenhouse gas emissions avoided, without regard to other environmental or human constraints. This amount is not dependent on the price of carbon and hence is a straight line. There is also a minimum mitigation achieved by baseline or business-asusual technological development (as reflected, for example, in the family of scenarios appearing in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES], Nakicenovic et al. 2000), which already include assumed mitigation such as through shifts toward non-fossil fuels). This baseline mitigation is likewise independent of the price of carbon. Between these limits, the actual, achieved mitigation is a price-dependent curve. It is less (often very much less) than the technical potential, because of a range of economic, environmental, and social drivers and constraints. In more detail than before, these include the following: InsertFigure6.2

• Economics: Economic factors include (1) access to markets for carbon-relevant products; (2) the nature of those markets; (3) the influence of pathways of industrialization and urbanization on existing and new carbon-relevant economic sectors; (4) the

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Figure 6.2. Effects of economic, environmental, and social-institutional factors on the mitigation potential of a carbon management strategy. The technical potential (independent of cost) is reduced a combination of economic factors (markets, trade, economic structures, urbanization, industrialization); environmental factors (need for land, water and other resources, waste disposal, property rights); and social and institutional factors (class structure, politics and formal policies, informal rules, lifestyles, attitudes, behaviour). The end result is a sustainably achievable mitigation potential for the carbon management strategy being considered. This depends on the cost of carbon, which is a measure of the weight ascribed to carbon mitigation relative to other goals. The uptake proportion for the strategy is the ratio of the sustainably achievable potential to the technical potential. The figure also shows a baseline potential, representing the extent to which the carbon management strategy is deployed in a “business-as-usual” scenario.

existence or absence of crisis-prone economic conditions; and (5) the indebtedness of many countries, especially in the developing world. Economic markets play an important role in governing access to resources and, used intelligently by governments, can provide important incentives to switch to lower-carbon energy portfolios. • Environmental requirements for other resources: The need for resources to supply essentials, such as food, timber, and water, can reduce the estimated technical potential. • Environmental constraints: Mitigation activities can incur environmental costs such as waste disposal and ecological impacts. • Social factors: Differences in social factors between countries and between urban and rural locations exert strong influences on mitigation outcomes. On a personal level, class structure and lifestyles are often related on one hand to increasing consumption and use of carbon-relevant commodities as cultural symbols, such as cars, mobility, and

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travel to exotic places (Lebel, Chapter 20, this volume). On the other hand, lifestyles are linked to poverty and lack of access, for instance, to technical alternatives. On a public level, societal values and attitudes determine the level of support for carbon management strategies, through education and societal self-image (such as frontier, pro-modernization, pro-conservation). • Institutional factors: Institutions determine the structure of incentives influencing any management option, both in terms of taxes, credits, subsidies, sectoral strategies, property rights regimes, and other formal components and in terms of the policy climate or informal policies within which management strategies are designed and implemented. Examples of policy climate include the level of performance, the presence or absence of corruption, and the extent and nature of powerful vested interests. To illustrate the last point, significant constraints can arise within both public and private sectors that affect the speed of technology deployment and the choices of alternative systems. Owners of existing energy technologies can use their considerable financial and technological influence to block the development or deployment of alternative systems. Similarly, government regulators may use their powers to control the flow of investment in mitigation technology or its application in their country in order to protect perceived national interests. • Institutional and timing aspects of technology transfer: Some features of technology transfer systems, like the patenting system, do not allow all countries and sectors to gain access to the best available technology rapidly or at all. The timing of technology transfer is an issue, as many technological paradigms need 50–70 years to be completely established (Nakicenovic, Chapter 11, and Romero Lankao, Chapter 19, both this volume). • Demography: The density, growth, migration patterns, and distribution of the population can form another constraint, especially in countries with high levels of social segregation. For instance, in regions with a high concentration of land in few hands, population pressure on land can pose an obstacle to a reforestation strategy. Some of these constraints are price dependent, implying that a higher carbon price would increase the viability of the carbon management strategy. Hence, in general, the relationship between the sustainable mitigation potential and the price of carbon is a curve in Figure 6.2. After considering these factors, the remaining amount of mitigated carbon emission or sequestration is the sustainably achievable potential at a given price of carbon. In the schematic analysis of the previous subsection, the price of carbon is a measure of the relative weights (w) between the climate cost and other components of the overall cost in equation (4), and the uptake proportion (u) is the ratio of the sustainably achievable potential to the technical potential. Figure 6.2 again emphasizes the importance of the weighting between carbon mitigation and other societal goals in determining the uptake of mitigation technologies and hence mitigation outcomes.

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Implications of Carbon Management Options A large portfolio of carbon management options is needed to give flexibility in designing a practical pathway for achieving stabilization of atmospheric CO2 (Caldeira et al., Chapter 5, this volume). As already emphasized, all carbon management options bring both positive and negative environmental, economic, and sociocultural impacts, in addition to greenhouse mitigation. In designing carbon management strategies it is necessary to take advantage of beneficial synergies between mitigation and other impacts. Our discussion of the wider implications of mitigation is intended to supplement the more technically oriented contributions of Caldeira et al. (Chapter 5) and the engineering-oriented review of Hoffert et al. (2002), by providing some analysis of collateral effects. We consider four classes of impact corresponding to the four terms in equation (4): climate change and greenhouse, economic, environmental, and sociocultural. The technical options are organized into five categories identifiable with the six mitigation-oriented terms in equation (3): conservation and efficiency (combining the factors e and i into one category), non-fossil-fuel energy sources (factor f ), land-based options including disturbance reduction and biological sequestration (terms FLULUC and FSeq ), biological sequestration in oceans (term FSeq ), and engineered CO2 disposal (term FDisp ). We restrict discussion to options that are currently technically feasible, at least at moderate scales, omitting (for example) nuclear fusion and spaceborne solar power. Also, although the focus is on carbon mitigation toward CO2 stabilization, we include discussion of other greenhouse gases where these are closely related to carbon mitigation options, for example in land use. The results of our analysis are summarized in Table 6.2, where we have somewhat subjectively estimated the collateral costs and benefits for each strategy in each impact class as minor, moderate, or major. InsertTable6.2

Conservation and Efficiency A number of changes in technology, policy, and human behavior will reduce energy demands, with benefits or at most small costs for economic productivity. These influence the factor e (primary energy per unit economic product) in equation (3). Examples include: • more efficient appliances (light-emitting diodes, low-power computers, . . .); • more efficient indoor environments (passive lighting, heating, cooling, insulation . . .); • urban microclimate design to minimize energy demand in extreme weather conditions (for example, using trees to lessen both heating and cooling demands); • better urban planning (improving public transport, shortening travel distances, . . .); • shifts toward diets that require less energy inputs (shifting diets toward vegetarianism). Technological changes that will reduce the carbon intensity of fossil-fuel energy generation (factor i in equation (3)) include

Table 6.2. Assessment of positive and negative climate, economic, environmental, and sociocultural impacts associated with mitigation strategies Impact Mitigation strategy

Climate change and greenhouse

Conservation and efficiency More efficient appliances More efficient indoor environments More efficient automotive transport (+++) Better urban travel planning Urban microclimate design Better use of fossil fuels Cogeneration Changes to diets Non-fossil-fuel energy sources Hydropower (++) and (–)

       

Solar power Wind power Bioenergy Geothermal power Nuclear energy Land-based options Afforestation, reforestation, and land restoration Reduction of net deforestation

Economic

Environmental

Sociocultural

(++) and (–)

(+++) and (–)

(++) and (–)

(+) and (–)

(++) and (––)

Incentives needed Incentives needed (+) and (–)

(++) and (–)

(++) and (––)

(++)

(++)and (––)

Developed: (–) Developing: (–––) (+++) (–) (+++) and (–) ? (++) (+) and (–) (+++) and (–) (+) and (–) (+++) and (––) (+) and (–) (+++) and (––) (+) and (––) (+) ? (++) and (–) ? (+++) (++) and (––) (++) and (–––) (–––) (++) and (–) (+++)

Forest management and fire (+) and (–) (++) and (–) suppression Changing agricultural management (++) (++) and (–) (++) and (––) (++) (++) and (–) (++) and (–) Non-CO2 mitigation from land biosphere Bioengineering solutions ? (++) and (––) (+) and (–––) Biological sequestration in the oceans Ocean fertilization (++) and (––) ? (––) CO2 disposal on land and oceans C separation with ocean storage (+++) and (––) ? (––) C separation with geological storage (+++) and (––) ? (––)

? ? ? (––) (–––) (–––) (–)

Note: Symbols (+), (++), and (+++) indicate minor, moderate, and major positive impacts (benefits); likewise, (–), (––), and (–––) indicate minor, moderate, and major negative impacts (costs). Where distinct benefits and costs occur, these are indicated separately. Impacts in the climate change and greenhouse area refer to technical potential, indicated as minor (< 0.3 PgC y-1), moderate (0.3 to 1 PgC y-1), and major (> 1 PgC y-1). A question mark indicates that insufficient information is available to make a judgment.

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• more efficient automotive transport (hybrid vehicles that electrically recover lost mechanical energy, use of smaller cars rather than sports utility vehicles in cities, . . .); • better use of fossil fuels (natural gas, highly efficient coal combustion); and • cogeneration (recovery and use of low-grade heat from electric power stations, usually with smaller and more distributed power stations). The technical potential for gains in energy efficiency from these options are large, in many cases from tens to hundreds of percentage points on a sectoral basis, and in most cases the technology is readily deployable (Hoffert et al. 2002; Edmonds et al., Chapter 4, this volume). As a group, these options have significant environmental and sociocultural benefits, including lower urban air pollution, more efficient urban transport networks, more congenial and livable cities, and improvements to population health. Some involve changes to lifestyles (such as reducing car sizes) that may be seen as sociocultural drawbacks. They also involve some transfers of economic power (for instance, away from oil suppliers), although many oil companies, particularly in Europe, are turning this change to advantage by repositioning themselves as energy service providers, including renewables and conservation. Because of the magnitude and generally rapid uptake time of these mitigation options, and also recognizing the significant collateral benefits and minimal costs, many future scenarios include significant continuing mitigation from this area. Although scenarios vary widely, it is common to assume improvements in energy efficiency in the order of 1 percent per year while maintaining economic growth of 2–3 percent per year (Edmonds et al., Chapter 4, this volume; Figure 6.1). A key question is whether these uptake rates can be improved.

Non-Fossil-Fuel Energy Sources These options reduce f (the fraction of primary energy from fossil fuel) in equation (3). Hydropower At present about 19 percent of the world’s electricity is produced from hydropower (McCarthy et al. 2001). Although this source is reaching saturation in developed countries, continued deployment is likely in many developing countries. Hydropower is a renewable energy source with important benefits, such as flood control and regulation of river flows for agricultural, industrial, and urban use. From the power-engineering viewpoint, hydropower is fast to start in peak electricity consumption periods and can store surplus energy from other sources during low consumption periods, thus increasing overall system efficiency. There can, however, also be a range of negative sociocultural, environmental, economic, and ancillary greenhouse-gas consequences. During dam construction and first filling, few or many (up to millions) of people are displaced from their homes, often leading to impoverishment (World Commission on Dams 2000). Dams alter downstream nutrient cycling patterns, ecosystems, and food-web structures,

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reduce biodiversity in rivers, affect the viability of fishing industries, and accumulate sediment. WBGU (2003) suggests that at least 20 percent of global rivers should remain undammed. From the greenhouse-gas perspective, the global production of greenhouse gases from hydropower systems is relatively low, but lakes in vegetated areas can incur significant methane production in anoxic sediments (McCarthy et al. 2001). Solar Power The solar option has low sociocultural and environmental impacts compared with many other energy systems. Available energy densities are moderate, about 15 W per square meter (m-2) for electric power (Hoffert et al. 2002), so that current global electricity consumption could be met from a square less than 400 kilometers on a side (WBGU 2003). The resource is most concentrated in subtropical semiarid to arid areas, implying development opportunities in these areas, which are largely in the developing world. Extensive decentralization is also possible and is very efficient in some sectors (such as solar hot water), leading to substantial social benefits and microeconomic opportunities. On the cost side, large-scale solar energy deployment may involve significant land use changes with consequences for ecosystems; water supply may be an issue in arid regions; energy transport over large distances and across national borders is both a technical and an institutional hurdle; and environmental issues can arise in the production and disposal of photovoltaic cells (silica crystal with traces of heavy metals). Wind Power Like solar energy, wind power is considered a clean energy. Its technology is rapidly deployable to many suitable regions around the world, making it the world’s fastest growing energy source at present. Its energy density is comparable to solar, but areas for deployment are more restricted. Wind power has very limited negative effects on the environment. The largest concern is probably the visual impact of large-scale wind farms with turbines up to 200 meters tall on mountain ridges or in coastal regions with aesthetic and cultural values. Wind turbines, especially older models, can be noisy. A controversial impact is that on bird communities through killings by turbine blades. Bioenergy An important option is the substitution of biofuels for fossil fuels, both for transport and for electricity generation from biofuels alone or with fossil fuels in co-fired plants. Biofuels have minimal net carbon emissions because atmospheric CO2 is continuously recycled. The technical potential is large: up to 500 megahectares (Mha) of land (around 3 percent of the global land area) could be made available for biofuel crop production by 2100 (Watson et al. 2000b). This amount would produce in the range of 150–300 EJ y-1 and displace 2–5 petagrams (Pg) C y-1 of carbon emissions. Biofuel production offers many ancillary benefits: with good design, soil erosion can be reduced and water quality improved through increased vegetation cover. From a

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national viewpoint, dependence on imported oil can be reduced, rural investment increased, work opportunities created, and agricultural products diversified. There are few negative impacts when biomass sources are by-products (organic waste and residues) from agriculture and forestry, though transport infrastructure is an issue because of low energy densities (0.3–0.6 W m-2). The large-scale production of dedicated biofuels can, however, have negative impacts, including competition for other land uses, primarily food production; soil sustainability (extraction of residues should not exceed 30 percent of total production to maintain soil fertility); poor resilience of monocultural plantations; and the implications for biodiversity and amenity (Watson et al. 2000b). The full greenhouse gas balance of biofuel production also needs to account for significant emissions from mechanization, transport, use of fertilizers, and conversion to usable energy. Taking into account some of these constraints, especially competition for other land uses, Cannell (2003) estimated the range 0.2–1 PgC y-1 to be a more conservative achievable mitigation capacity for C substitution using biofuels. This amount is about 15 percent of the potential mitigation described earlier. Other estimates are even lower (WBGU 2003). Geothermal Power Geothermal power is a niche option with small mitigation potential but significant environmental benefits where available because of the clean energy yield. There are some environmental concerns over the depletion of geothermal resources. Nuclear Power Nuclear energy is a non-fossil-fuel source with significant mitigation potential. Environmental concerns include waste and plant (old reactor) disposal and the potential for accidents. There is also a major sociocultural or political issue with weapons proliferation, especially where breeder reactors are used to create additional fissile material. This issue is too large to be explored here. It is notable that the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP 7 and 8) has agreed not to include nuclear power in the Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms.

Terrestrial Biological Sequestration and Disturbance Reduction In equation (3), these options reduce emissions from FLULUC and promote CO2 uptake in the land component of FSeq. Reforestation, Afforestation, and Land Restoration The potential global carbon sequestration due to increased forest extension and other land uses is in the order of 1 PgC y-1 by 2010 (Watson et al. 2000b). In the past few decades major plantation has occurred in many countries, often where previous deforestation took place. During the 1990s alone, the global area of plantations increased by

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3.1 Mha y-1 (Braatz 2001). Regionally, reforestation and afforestation in China during the past two decades is contributing 80 percent of the total current Chinese carbon sink (Fang et al. 2001), and the return of abandoned farmland to native vegetation is estimated to be responsible for 98 percent of the current sink in the eastern United States (Caspersen et al. 2000). If done with proper regard for the ecology and history of human land use in a region, expansion of forest area usually brings a number of collateral benefits: preservation of biodiversity, decreased soil erosion and siltation, decreased salinization, and watershed protection with associated water supply and flooding regulation. These benefits will most likely come with little adverse effect on agricultural production, employment, economic well-being, and cultural and aesthetic values in countries with agricultural surpluses such as Europe and the United States. In developing countries, however, which are usually dependent on exports of raw materials and confronted with high levels of social segregation, diverting land for reforestation may have negative consequences if it is not adapted to the local environment, land use patterns, and institutional settings. In these regions, land for afforestation is usually created by logging primary forest (Schulze et al. 2003). This practice affects vulnerable communities such as small-holding farmers (Silva 1997). There are also some environmental concerns: reduction of runoff during dry periods (due to increased soil infiltration and transpiration) may have impacts downstream, for instance in farmlands and wetlands. In boreal regions, changes in albedo due to darker forest canopies may lead to positive climate forcing and regional warming (Betts 2000; Betts et al. 2000). Taking into account a set of institutional and socioeconomic constraints only, Cannell (2003) estimated that only 10–25 percent of the potential C sequestration could realistically be achieved by 2100. Managing Wood Products Managing wood products is an important part of a terrestrial sequestration strategy. It involves recycling paper, making use of long-lasting wood products that can substitute for high fossil-carbon-content materials, and other steps to increase the residence time of carbon sequestered as utilized wood. Reduction of Net Deforestation and Emissions from Land Use Deforestation over the past 200 years has contributed 30 percent of the present anthropogenic increase of atmospheric CO2. Current estimates of emissions from deforestation are 1.6 PgC y-1, or about 20–25 percent of total anthropogenic emissions (Houghton et al. 2001). Therefore, reduction of deforestation has large carbon mitigation potential: a 3 to 10 percent reduction of deforestation in non–Annex I (developing) countries by 2010 would result in 0.053–0.177 PgC y-1 carbon mitigation, equivalent to 1 to 3.5 percent of Annex I base-year emissions (Watson et al. 2000b). The environmental benefits of slowing down deforestation are numerous, including most of the benefits mentioned for reforestation, with maximum value for biodiversity conser-

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vation in pristine forests, particularly in the tropics. Although ending forest deforestation is a laudable goal, it has, however, proved difficult or impossible to implement in many regions unless there are tangible socioeconomic incentives and the other drivers of deforestation (such as markets and policy climate) are specifically addressed. This is especially so in developing countries, where most deforestation occurs (Lambin et al. 2001). Another unintended outcome of rewarding the preservation of carbon stocks in forests could be a more relaxed emphasis on reduction of energy emissions, the most important pathway for long-term CO2 stabilization (Figure 6.1). Forest Management and Fire Suppression Changes in forest management could increase carbon stocks with an estimated global mitigation of 0.175 PgC y-1 (Watson et al. 2000b). One management activity being suggested is fire suppression. Fire is a natural factor for large forest areas of the globe, and therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle. Fire is a major short-term source of atmospheric carbon, but it adds to a small longer-term sink (