Russia and the New States of Eurasia: The Politics of Upheaval

RUSSIA AND THE NEW STATES OF EURASIA The Politics of Upheaval

RUSSIA AND THE NEW STATES OF EURASIA The Politics of Upheaval KAREN DAWISHA and BRUCE PARROTT

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

Published by the Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpingion Street, Cambridge CB2 40 West 20lh Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 10 Stamford Road. Oaklcigh, Mclborne 3166, Australia © Karen Oawisha and Bruce Parrott 1994 First published 1994 Reprinted with corrections 1994 Reprinted 1994, 1995 Printed in the United Slates of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available. A catalogue record for Ihis book is available from the British Library. ISBN 0-521-45262-7 hardback ISBN 0-521-45895-1 paperback

To my wonderful family and great friends K. D. To Gordon Schloming, who stands firmly, feels fully, and lives in the spirit B. P.

Contents

Preface Maps

page ix xii

Introduction The Tsarist Experience From Lenin to Stalin The Post-Stalin Era From Soviet Reform to Soviet Collapse

1 5 S 13 17

1. The Legacies of History Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

23 25 35 45 55

2. National Identity and Ethnicity Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

57 60 70 80 88

3. The Impact of Religion Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

90 92 102 111 120

4. Political Culture and Civil Society Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

123 126 135 147 157

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viii

Contents

5. The Impact of Economics Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

161 i63 176 186 192

6. Foreign Policy Priorities and Institutions Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

195 198 207 218 228

7. Military Issues Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

231 233 245 252 255

8. The Nuclear Factor Russia The Western Newly Independent States The Southern Newly Independent States Conclusion

258 267 270 275 279

Conclusion The Eurasian Upheaval as Process The Upheaval in Comparative Perspective Russia, the West, and the Future of Eurasia

281 281 289 294

Appendix A: Chronology of Events, January 1992 to October 1993

298

Appendix B: Compendium of Leadership and Institutional Changes in the Eurasian States, January 1992 to October 1993

311

Appendix C: Soviet Census Data, Union Republic and ASSR, 1989

331

Notes

342

Index

423

Preface

This study is the first book produced by the Russian Littoral Project, sponsored jointly by the University of Maryland at College Park and the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and directed by Drs. Dawisha and Parrott. Both the book and the project emerged from the authors' conviction that the transformation of the former Soviet republics into independent states demands a thorough study of the determinants of the domestic and foreign policies of these new countries. The book and the project attempt to lay the basic groundwork for future study of these issues. This book is an outgrowth of a November 1992 report written for the U.S. Department of State by Drs. Dawisha and Parrott. Of course, the views contained in the book do not necessarily reflect the views of that department. The authors wish to acknowledge the superb research assistance of Griffin Hathaway, Petr Lunak, Stephen Guenther, Ibrahim Arafat, and Michael Cully. Florence Rotz spent untold hours assisting in the preparation of the manuscript. For their generosity in reading and commenting on various parts of the manuscript, or in providing materials, the authors would like to thank Muriel Atkin, Bohdan Bociurkiw, Oleg Bukharin, Patricia Carley, Adeed Dawisha, Richard Dobson, Raymond Garthoff, Steven Grant, John Hardt, Dale Herspring, James Millar, Peter Murrell, Ilya Prizel, and Steve Sestanovich. The errors in the book are our own, but we know there are fewer for their assistance. Karen Dawisha also wishes to thank the U.S. Institute of Peace and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for individual research awards prior to 1992 that allowed her to begin the collection and analysis of data for the book. Russian Littoral Project The objective of the Russian Littoral Project is to foster an exchange of research and information in fields of study pertaining to the interix

x

Preface

national politics of Eurasia. The interaction between the internal affairs and foreign policies of the new states is to be studied in a series of workshops in Washington, D.C., between May 1993 and April 1995. Scholars are invited from the new states, North America, and Europe to present papers at the workshops. The workshops focus on the following determinants of foreign policy, which correspond to the chapters of this book, for the geographic areas of Russia, the Western newly independent states (NIS), and the Southern NIS: history, ethnicity and national identity, religion, political culture and civil society, economics, foreign policy priorities and institutions, military issues, and the nuclear factor. A series of volumes containing the papers presented at each workshop will be published by M. E. Sharpe beginning in 1994. The authors wish to acknowledge the generous and timely contributions of the project's Coordinating Committee. The members have provided invaluable advice and expertise on earlier versions of the manuscript and on the project. The Coordinating Committee members are: Dr. Adeed Dawisha (George Mason University); Dr. Bartek Kaminski (University of Maryland); Dr. Catherine Kelleher (The Brookings Institution); Ms. Judith Kipper (The Brookings Institution); Dr. Nancy Lubin (Carnegie Mellon University); Dr. Michael Mandelbaum (The School of Advanced International Studies); Dr. James Millar (The George Washington University); Dr. Peter Murrell (University of Maryland); Dr. Martha Brill Olcott (Colgate University); Dr. Ilya Prizel (The School of Advanced International Studies); Dr. George Quester (University of Maryland); Dr. Alvin Z. Rubinstein (University of Pennsylvania); Dr. Blair Ruble (The Kennan Institute); Dr. S. Frederick Starr (Oberlin College); Dr. Roman Szporluk (Harvard University); and Dr. Vladimir Tismaneanu (University of Maryland). The authors also wish to acknowledge the excellent work of the executive director of the Russian Littoral Project, Janine Ludlam, who kept the project on course during the writing of this book. Drs. Dawisha and Parrott are grateful for the support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the Pew Charitable Trusts, and the National Endowment for the Humanities, and especially wish to thank Kennette Benedict, Dieter Dettke, and Kevin Quigley, for without their generosity, the Russian Littoral Project would not have been possible. Finally, the authors are grateful to President William Kirwan, Dean Irwin Goldstein, Associate Dean Stewart Edelstein, Director of the Office of International Affairs Marcus Franda, and Department of Government and Politics Chair Jonathan Wilkenfeld at the University of

Preface

xi

Maryland at College Park; President William C. Richardson, Provost Joseph Cooper, Vice-Provost for Academic Planning and Budget Stephen M. McClain at the Johns Hopkins University; and Dean George Packard and Associate Dean Stephen Szabo at The School of Advanced International Studies, who have all provided invaluable and continuing support for the Russian Littoral Project. Michael Holdsworth at Cambridge University Press in Cambridge was a constant encouragement and promoted the idea of the book from the beginning. Richard Hollick, Sophia Prybylski, Cary Groner, and Patricia Woodruff at Cambridge University Press's New York offices worked diligently to get the book out in a timely fashion.

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The New States of Central Asia

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S i n : 2,717.300 aqutn kUometore (1.049,1 SO tquw* m-t). BoundHlM: 13.906 km loul: HuMia 6,846 km. Chlra 1.533 km, Kyrgyntwi 1.051 km. UdMkistut 2^03 km, TuiMTMnmn 37» Poputatkw: 17.037.000 Pofwkrtkm growth I U K 0 7%

Kyrgyzstan S l a : 198.500 iquara kllomeuni (76.641 tquara mlkw). Boundwkn: 3,876 km loul: KuiWistan 1,051 km, C l * « 6SS km. Tajikistan 670 km. Uzbekistan 1,099 km. Population: 4.552,000 S PopuWion growthrat.:1.6* P~»ntun > » ^ ' °**'"» PopuWion growth rat*: 2 . 8 * A i r 'j^^^.'SS', I T P»o>f