Forecasting Innovations: Methods for Predicting Numbers of Patent Filings

Forecasting Innovations

Peter Hingley ´ Marc Nicolas (Editors)

Forecasting Innovations Methods for Predicting Numbers of Patent Filings

With 24 Figures and 71 Tables

12

Peter Hingley Marc Nicolas European Patent Office Erhardtstraûe 27 80469 Munich, Germany

ISBN 10 3-540-35991-5 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York ISBN 13 978-3-540-35991-3 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York Cataloging-in-Publication Data Library of Congress Control Number: 2006931133 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Physica-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer-Verlag is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springer.com ° Springer-Verlag Heidelberg 2006 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover: Erich Kirchner, Heidelberg Production: LE-TEX, Jelonek, Schmidt & Væckler GbR, Leipzig SPIN 11786023

Printed on acid-free paper ± 42/3100 ± 5 4 3 2 1 0



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±  WKHQ GHVFULEH WKH UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV 0HWKRGRORJLHVDQGVRIWZDUHDUHGLVFXVVHGDVZHOODVPRGHOVGDWDDQGUH VXOWV )LQDOO\ &KDSWHU  SURYLGHV D UHYLHZ ZLWK LQGLFDWLRQV RI ZD\V WKDW ZHKRSHWRSXWWKHLGHDVLQWRDFWLRQWRDXJPHQWWKHH[LVWLQJPHWKRGV $VSHFWVRIWKHUHVHDUFKZLOOEHDSSOLFDEOHLQRWKHUVHWWLQJV:HEHOLHYH WKDWWKHUHLVVRPHWKLQJKHUHIRUHYHU\RQHZLWKDQLQWHUHVWLQEXVLQHVVIRUH

YL3UHIDFH

FDVWLQJ %\ IRFXVLQJ RQ YDULRXV DVSHFWV RI D VLQJOH WKHPH IURP GLIIHUHQW DQJOHVPRUHFDQEHJDLQHGWKDQIURPDWH[WERRNRIXQFRQQHFWHGIRUHFDVW LQJUHFLSHV :HDUHOXFN\WRKDYHJRRGFRQWULEXWRUV'LHWPDU+DUKRIILVSURIHVVRUDW WKH,QVWLWXWHIRU,QQRYDWLRQ5HVHDUFK7HFKQRORJ\0DQDJHPHQWDQG(QWHU SULVH /XGZLJ 0D[LPLOLDQV 8QLYHUVLW\ 0XQLFK *HUPDQ\ DQG KHOSHG WR GUDZ XS WKH VSHFLILFDWLRQV IRU WKH UHVHDUFK SURJUDPPH 1LJHO 0HDGH LV SURIHVVRURITXDQWLWDWLYHILQDQFHDWWKH7DQDND%XVLQHVV6FKRRO,PSHULDO &ROOHJH/RQGRQDQGKDVEHHQDFKDQQHOWRFRQQHFWXVWRWKHZLGHUIRUH FDVWLQJZRUOG.QXW%OLQGDQG5DLQHU)ULHWVFKDUHUHVSHFWLYHO\VHQLRUUH VHDUFKHU DQG VFLHQWLVW DW WKH )UDXQKRIHU,QVWLWXWH 6\VWHPV DQG ,QQRYDWLRQ 5HVHDUFK&HQWUHLQ.DUOVUXKHZKLFKIUHTXHQWO\FDUULHVRXWVWXGLHVRQLQ WHOOHFWXDOSURSHUW\DQGSDWHQWLQJ*HUKDUG'LNWDLVSURIHVVRUIRUPDWKHPDW LFVDQGDSSOLHGPDWKHPDWLFVDWWKH$DFKHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI$SSOLHG6FLHQFHV DQGKDVZRUNHGERWKLQVLGHDQGRXWVLGHWKH(32RQIRUHFDVWLQJDQGWLPH VHULHVDQDO\VLV:DOWHU3DUNLVDSURIHVVRURIHFRQRPLFVDW$PHULFDQ8QL YHUVLW\:DVKLQJWRQ'&DQGKDVDFRQWLQXLQJLQWHUHVWLQHFRQRPHWULFDS SURDFKHVWRLQWHOOHFWXDOSURSHUW\ :H ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN -DFTXHV 0DLUHVVH 1LJHO 0HDGH DQG 8OULFK 6FKPRFK ZKR FRQVWLWXWHG WKH RULJLQDO DGYLVRU\ JURXS RI H[SHUWV &RO OHDJXHVDWWKH(32WKHQKHOSHGWRWDNHWKHSURJUDPPHIURPSRVVLELOLW\WR UHDOLW\ DQG RQ WR LWV VXFFHVVIXO FRPSOHWLRQ :H SDUWLFXODUO\ WKDQN 6WHHQ $QGHUVHQ5REHUW'XQVWDQ:ROIUDP)|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

&RQWHQWV  &KDSWHU %DFNJURXQG  3+LQJOH\DQG01LFRODV  &KDSWHU $UHVHDUFKSURJUDPPHIRULPSURYLQJIRUHFDVWVRISDWHQW ILOLQJV '+DUKRII  &KDSWHU )URPWKHRU\WRWLPHVHULHV 

3+LQJOH\DQG:*3DUN

&KDSWHU $QDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHFRPSDUDWLYHDFFXUDF\RIWLPHVHULHV IRUHFDVWVRISDWHQWILOLQJVWKHEHQHILWVRIGLVDJJUHJDWLRQ LQVSDFHRUWLPH   10HDGH &KDSWHU 'ULYLQJIRUFHVRISDWHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVDWWKH(XURSHDQ 3DWHQW2IILFHDVHFWRUDODSSURDFK .%OLQG  &KDSWHU 7LPHVHULHVPHWKRGVWRIRUHFDVWSDWHQWILOLQJV  

*'LNWD

&KDSWHU ,QWHUQDWLRQDOSDWHQWLQJDWWKH(XURSHDQ3DWHQW2IILFH DJJUHJDWHVHFWRUDODQGIDPLO\ILOLQJV 

:*3DUN

&KDSWHU 0LFURGDWDIRUPDFURHIIHFWV  

5)ULHWVFK

&KDSWHU ,PSURYLQJIRUHFDVWLQJPHWKRGVDWWKH(XURSHDQ3DWHQW 2IILFH 3+LQJOH\DQG01LFRODV  

5HIHUHQFHV  1DPHLQGH[  ,QGH[



&KDSWHU %DFNJURXQG 3HWHU+LQJOH\DQG0DUF1LFRODV &RQWUROOLQJ2IILFH(XURSHDQ3DWHQW2IILFH0XQLFK*HUPDQ\

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

3HWHU+LQJOH\DQG0DUF1LFRODV

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• 1DWLRQDOSDWHQWSURFHGXUHV •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pWp ,QWHOOHF WXHOOH2$3, DQG(32 

%DFNJURXQG

     (XURGLUHFW

 (XUR3&7,3

            

)LJ1XPEHUVRISDWHQWILOLQJVDWWKH(32SHU\HDUIURPWRZLWKD EUHDNGRZQE\HXURGLUHFWDQGHXUR3&7,37KHWUHQGOLQHLVILWWHGE\VWUDLJKWOLQH UHJUHVVLRQIURPWRLQFOXVLYHEXWH[FOXGLQJ\HDUVDQG

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



3HWHU+LQJOH\DQG0DUF1LFRODV

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

%DFNJURXQG

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±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



3HWHU+LQJOH\DQG0DUF1LFRODV

 







 



(3&VWDWHV)) (32))

  

))





 







))



 

 











    









                      

))

)LJ)LUVWILOLQJV)) LQLQHDFKPDLQUHJLRQDOEORF(XURSH(3&FRQ WUDFWLQJVWDWHV -DSDQ86DQG2WKHUFRXQWULHVDQGWKHIORZVRIVXEVHTXHQWILOLQJV 6) EHWZHHQWKHEORFVLQ1RWHWKDWWKHH[LVWHQFHRIPRUHWKDQRQHRIILFHLQ DEORFFDQOHDGWRPXOWLSOHFRXQWLQJRISDWHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHVDPHLQYHQWLRQ 6)IORZVZLWKLQHDFKRIWKHIRXUEORFVDUHQRWVKRZQ

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

%DFNJURXQG

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

3HWHU+LQJOH\DQG0DUF1LFRODV

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

&KDSWHU $UHVHDUFKSURJUDPPHIRULPSURYLQJIRUHFDVWVRI SDWHQWILOLQJV 'LHWPDU+DUKRII ,QVWLWXWHIRU,QQRYDWLRQ5HVHDUFK7HFKQRORJ\0DQDJHPHQWDQG(QWUHSUHQHXUVKLS ,112WHF /XGZLJ0D[LPLOLDQV8QLYHUVLW\0XQLFK*HUPDQ\

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±PDGHRQWKHEDVLVRILQIRUPDWLRQDYDLODEOHDWWKDWWLPH±DVWR KRZVXFKDUHVHDUFKSURJUDPPHFRXOGEHVHWXSDQGZKLFKUHVHDUFKSDFN DJHVFRXOGEHVSHFLILHG7KHUHSRUWGHVFULEHGILYHUHVHDUFKPRGXOHVZKLFK

'LHWPDU+DUKRII

ZHUHWREHHLWKHUGHOHJDWHGWRH[WHUQDOUHVHDUFKHUVRUXQGHUWDNHQDWOHDVW LQSDUWV E\(32H[SHUWV 7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVVXPPDUL]HWKHVXJJHVWLRQVPDGHSULRUWRWKHLQ FHSWLRQ RI WKH UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV GHVFULEHG LQ VXEVHTXHQW FKDSWHUV RI WKLV ERRN,Q6HFWWKHPDLQPRWLYDWLRQIRUWKHUHVHDUFKSURMHFWVLVGHVFULEHG ,Q6HFWSRWHQWLDODSSURDFKHVWRZDUGVHVWLPDWLQJSDWHQWILOLQJVDUHVXP PDUL]HG6HFWGHVFULEHVWKHSURSRVHGUHVHDUFKPRGXOHVDQG6HFWGLV FXVVHVWKHQHHGIRUFRRUGLQDWLRQDPRQJWKHGLIIHUHQWPRGXOHV6HFWFRQ FOXGHVZLWKDGGLWLRQDOVXJJHVWLRQV

0RWLYDWLRQDQGWDVNGHVFULSWLRQ 7KHEDVLFVWUXFWXUHXQGHUO\LQJWKHLQIORZRIILOLQJVDWWKH(32LVGHVFULEHG LQ)LJ6WDJHVZLWK(32LQYROYHPHQWDUHKLJKOLJKWHG  0RGHO$ 0RGHO% )LUVWILOLQJV 6XEVHTXHQWILOLQJV   1DWLRQDOILOLQJV 1DWLRQDOILOLQJV       (32(XURGLUHFW  (32(XURGLUHFW     3&7  UHJLRQDOSKDVH    3&7 3&7 LQWHUQDWLRQDOSKDVH  LQWHUQDWLRQDOSKDVH   3&7  QDWLRQDOSKDVH  )LJ  6RXUFHV DQG GHVWLQDWLRQV RI ILOLQJV  7KH VWDJHV ZKHUH (32 FDQ EH LQ YROYHGDUHKLJKOLJKWHG

$UHVHDUFKSURJUDPPHIRUIRUHFDVWV

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±ILUVWO\DSSOL FDQWVWKDWW\SLFDOO\ILOHDODUJHQXPEHURISDWHQWDSSOLFDWLRQVSHU\HDUDQG VHFRQGO\DUDQGRPVDPSOHRIDSSOLFDQWVZLWKDUHODWLYHO\VPDOOQXPEHURI ILOLQJVSHUDSSOLFDQW

  6WULFWO\VSHDNLQJWKLVPD\QRWEHFRUUHFWLIWKHDSSOLFDQWVWKHPVHOYHVXVHPHWK RGVIRUSUHGLFWLQJIXWXUHILOLQJVZKLFKGHSHQGRQORQJUXQWUHQGV,QDQ\FDVH WKHUHVSRQGHQWVRIWKHVXUYH\FDQVDIHO\EHDVVXPHGWRKDYHEHWWHULQIRUPDWLRQ RQVXFKWUHQGVDWWKHILUPOHYHOWKDQWKH2IILFH



  $QRWKHUJURXSRILQWHUHVWDUHILUPVZKLFKKDYHQRWEHHQDFWLYHO\SDWHQWLQJLQ WKHSDVWEXWPD\EHZLOOLQJWRLQLWLDWHWKHLUILUVWSDWHQWILOLQJVLQWKHIXWXUH,Q SULQFLSOHWKHH[LVWLQJGDWDDWWKH2IILFHZRXOGSHUPLWDQDQDO\VLVRIKRZODUJH WKLVJURXSLVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHWZRRWKHURQHV





'LHWPDU+DUKRII

3DWHQW ILOLQJV DUH KHDYLO\ FRQFHQWUDWHG ± WKH ODUJHVW DSSOLFDQWV DFFRXQW IRUDYHU\ODUJHSRUWLRQRIWRWDOILOLQJV6XUYH\LQJDYHU\VPDOOQXPEHURI DSSOLFDQWV FDQ WKHUHIRUH JHQHUDWH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D ODUJHVKDUHRIWRWDOIXWXUHILOLQJV7KH2IILFHKDVDOVRDVNHGWKHSDQHOILUPV IRUPRUHGLIIHUHQWLDWHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHQXPEHURI(XURGLUHFW3&7DQG WRWDOILOLQJV7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQPD\EHRILQFUHDVLQJLPSRUWDQFHVLQFHWKH JURZWK UDWHV IRU WKHVH W\SHV RI DSSOLFDWLRQV GLIIHU FRQVLGHUDEO\