World Bank Atlas 2003 (World Bank Atlas)

03 26416 WORLD BANK ATLAS Preface 2 19 Improving the investment and business climate 40 The world by region 3 2...

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03

26416

WORLD BANK ATLAS

Preface

2

19 Improving the investment and business climate

40

The world by region

3

20 Improving the performance of government

42

21 Building sound infrastructure

44

Topics

1

The world’s growing population

4

22 Conflict and development

46

2

Longer lives

6

23 The integrating world

48

3

Rich countries—and poor

8

24 Reducing barriers to trade

50

4

Urban demands on the world’s environment

10

25 Aid for development

52

5

Many people are still poor

12

Data tables

6

Millennium Development Goals

14

1

Key indicators of development

54

7

Education opens doors

16

2

Poverty and mortality

56

8

Gender and development

18

3

Health

58

9

Children under five—struggling to survive

20

4

Education and gender

60

10 Improving the health of mothers

22

5

Environment

62

11

24

6

Economy

64

12 The education vaccine

26

7

Energy and infrastructure

66

13 Limited land and more mouths to feed

28

8

Business and investment climate and trade

68

14 Forests shrinking

30

9

Government finance, external debt, and aid

70

15 Energy use and a warmer world

32

Millennium Development Goals, targets, and indicators

72

16 Growth and opportunity

34

Definitions, sources, and notes

74

17

36

Data sources

79

38

Ranking of economies by GNI per capita

80

Global killers

The rise of the service economy

18 Investment for growth

PREFACE

Canada

For more than 30 years the World Bank Atlas has

emphasis on measuring results have increased

been a resource for students and others seeking

the demand for timely, reliable, and relevant data.

a global view of development indicators. The World

The Atlas still provides an overview of

Bank Atlas 2003 continues in that tradition, but it

development issues, highlighting key social,

has changed, just as our understanding of the

economic, and environmental data for 208

development process has grown.

economies. But it has been expanded and

United States

Bermuda (UK)

The Bahamas

Early editions of the Atlas included only three

substantially redesigned, offering more Cayman Is.(UK)

Mexico

indicators: population, gross national product

information in a stronger thematic structure.

(GNP) per capita, and growth of GNP per capita in

Each topic is presented on two facing pages—

136 economies. The principal development

illustrated by maps, graphs, and accompanying

Belize Jamaica Guatemala Honduras El Salvador Nicaragua

strategy was investment for industrialization. In

text to provide a multidimensional introduction.

Costa Rica Panama

the background hovered the concern that

The topics are organized in three sections:

population would rapidly outstrip economic

•

output, leading to declining standards of living

Not until the 18th edition of the Atlas in 1985

grow but also about how people’s lives change. By

welfare, use of environmental resources,

then coverage had expanded to 189 economies.

performance of the public sector, and

In 1992 the 25th edition added a section on the

integration of the global economy.

environment, recognizing the demands that

Drawing on the World Development Indicators

Brazil

Peru French Polynesia (Fr)

Bolivia

Paraguay Dominican Republic

provide more information on many of the indicators

Puerto Rico (US)

Antigua and Barbuda

U.S. Virgin Islands (US)

St. Kitts and Nevis Netherlands Antilles (Neth)

2003 database, the Atlas includes nine tables that

informative and engaging. You may also find it

set specific, quantified targets for reducing

challenging, not because it presents arcane

poverty and achieving progress in health,

material or complicated concepts, but because

education, and the use of environmental

improving the lives of billions of people is very

resources. These goals and the growing

real, touching us all.

2003 World Bank Atlas

Dominica Martinique (Fr)

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Barbados Grenada

We hope that you find the new Atlas

adopted by all members of the United Nations,

Guadeloupe (Fr)

St. Lucia Aruba (Neth)

that appear in the thematic discussions.

poverty. The Millennium Development Goals,

2

Ecuador

Measuring action—comprises 19 detailed presentations on health, education, social

efforts are now directed more toward alleviating

French Guiana (Fr)

Kiribati

targets of the Millennium Development Goals. •

development is not just about how economies

Much has happened since. Development

Guyana Suriname

Colombia

Measuring development—presents an assessment of progress toward some of the

infant mortality, primary school enrollment, and

development makes on the world’s resources.

R.B. de Venezuela

environment. •

did “social indicators” appear—life expectancy,

later literacy and fertility rates, signaling that

Haiti

Measuring the world—examines population, life expectancy, poverty, world economy, and

and, perhaps, widespread starvation.

Cuba

Trinidad and Tobago R.B. de Venezuela

Chile

Uruguay Argentina

The world’s growing population The 20th century saw unprecedented population growth—the world’s population grew from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion. Most of the increase was in developing countries. And the largest share of future increases will occur in the poorest regions of the world. When the population is growing fast, the average age is low. In 2001 there were 5.2 billion people living in developing countries and about a third of them were under the age of 15. In the fastest growing regions, the youth population is even larger—44 percent in SubSaharan Africa and 36 percent in the Middle East and Nor th Africa. In slow growing, highincome countries, youths make

up only 18 percent of the population and people over 65 make up 14 percent. Even when bir th rates begin to decline, population growth will continue as large numbers of young people move into child-bearing age. Countries like Bangladesh and India can expect to grow another 30 percent even once couples have only two children. By 2050 the world’s population will reach 8.8 billion.

Demographic windows of opportunity There is a “population effect” on economic growth. On average, developing countries with slower population growth have had faster economic growth. One reason is that investments in health and education and improvements in the status of women, which help to increase growth and reduce poverty, also set the stage for lower population growth. And slowing the growth of population creates an opportunity for further increases in economic growth. Given a choice, poor people in developing countries choose to have smaller families than their parents did. Educated women, in particular, are likely to have fewer children. When fertility rates drop, the proportion of young people—who are dependent on the working-age population—declines while the proportion of the elderly rises much more slowly. So a larger pool of workers is supporting fewer young and old dependents—a demographic window—creating an opportunity for increased personal savings and investment, faster economic growth, and rising incomes. To take advantage of this window, countries must pursue sound social and economic policies that enable the large pool of potential workers to find productive employment. The moment will not last. Eventually, the proportion of dependents rises as the share of the older population increases. Many countries in East Asia took advantage of this opportunity, but countries that are now making the transition to low fertility may not benefit unless they too encourage growth, investment, and human capital development.

Countries need to invest in growth and human capital before the demographic window of opportunity closes Percentage of working-age population (15–64 years)

Youth dependency

Old-age dependency

1960

2020

100

80

60

40

20

0 1960

1990

2020

Low-income countries

4


2050

1960

1990

2020

Lower-middle-income countries

2050

1960

1990

2020

Upper-middle-income countries

2050

1990

High-income countries

2050

1

Population growth rate, 2001–15 Average annual percentage 2.5% or more 2.0–2.4% 1.0–1.9% 0.0–0.9% Less than 0.0% No data

The next billion Between 2001 and 2015 approximately one billion people will be added to the world. Ninety-seven percent will be born in low- and middleincome countries and concentrated mainly in urban areas. The fastest growing region will be Sub-Saharan Africa, but the largest number of people will be added in Asia. And the population of some high-income and Eastern European countries will decline.

Most of the projected population increase in coming years is in the poorest countries Absolute population increase by country, 2001–15 (millions)

200

150

100

50

0

–50 India

China

Pakistan Nigeria Indonesia United Bangladesh Brazil Congo, Ethiopia Germany States Dem. Rep.

Japan

Italy

Ukraine Russian Federation


The population growth rate measures how fast a country’s population is changing. Rapid population growth can strain the capacity for handling a wide range of economic, social, and environmental issues. This is particularly so when it occurs with widespread poverty, poor access to resources, or unsustainable patterns of production and consumption.

5

Longer lives Life expectancy in developing countries has increased to 64 years, mainly because of large reductions in infant mortality. Higher life expectancy increases productivity and stimulates economic growth because people are more willing to invest in human and physical capital. Life expectancy in developing countries increased rapidly after World War II—reflecting modern health care and technology. And increases have come much faster than they did in Europe a centur y earlier. Life expectancy in Trinidad and Tobago jumped from 39 to 61 years in 34 years,

compared with the 110 years it took for such a change in Sweden. Recently, new and reemergent diseases have slowed improvements in life expectancy. Between 1960 and 2001 life expectancy increased by only 15 years in low-income countries.

Around the world, women outlive men—more in high-income countries and less in low-income countries

What affects life expectancy? Life expectancy at birth reflects the likelihood of surviving, averaged over all age groups. So changes in life expectancy are strongly influenced by improvements in health conditions that lower mortality rates for all age groups. But the fastest improvements have been a result of declining infant mortality. Infant mortality rates are often divided into two parts: those that occur in the first month of life and those that occur in the remainder of the first year. This distinction separates the biological from the socioeconomic factors that affect infant mortality, which require different kinds of efforts to control. Where people live affects infant mortality. Those living in cities have better access to health care and a lower incidence of infectious childhood diseases. Socioeconomic factors also play a role, including the occupation, income, and education of a child’s parents. High-income countries have made enormous progress in controlling infant mortality caused by environmental factors and are now focusing on reducing deaths among newborns.

In some South Asian countries men formerly outlived women, but that has recently changed Life expectancy at birth, South Asia (years)

Life expectancy at birth, 1960–2001 (years)

90 Women Men 80 High-income countries 70

60

World

50

Low-income countries 40 1960

6

1965


1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2001

Women outlive men by 6–8 years in richer countries and by 2–3 years in low-income countries. Why the gap? Females in some low-income countries are more likely to die in childhood and in their reproductive years. And often women do not get a fair share of health resources. This bias was most pronounced in South Asia, where female life expectancy did not catch up with male life expectancy until 1990.

80 70

Men 62

Women 63

60 50

Men 45

Women 43

40 30 20 10 0 1960

2001

Life expectancy at birth, 2001 Years Less than 55 55—64 65—69 70—74 75 or more No data

Infant mortality rate, 2001 Per 1,000 live births 100 or more 50–99 25–49 10–24 Less than 10 No data


2

Life expectancy at birth is a measure of mortality levels of populations. Improvements in health conditions are therefore mirrored in life expectancy at birth. This indicator reflects many social, economic, and environmental influences and is closely related to other demographic variables, particularly infant mortality.

In the second half of the 20th century rapid improvements in life expectancy resulted mainly from declining infant mortality. Given its association with GNI per capita, infant mortality is also considered one of the best indicators of the socioeconomic development of a community.

7

Rich countries—and poor More than 80 percent of the world’s people live in developing countries. In 2001 their economies produced goods and services worth $6.2 trillion, about one-fifth of the world’s total output. As these numbers suggest, world output and income are not distributed evenly. The 2.5 billion people in lowincome economies have an average annual income of $430 a person, with some economies as low as $80. For the 2.7 billion people in middle-income economies, the average is $1,860. And for the 960 million in high-income countries, it is $26,510. To make comparisons between countries, local currencies must be converted to a common value. The values of gross national income (GNI) per

Making comparisons: shares of global output . . .

capita shown in the map were converted to dollars using three-year average exchange rates (World Bank Atlas method), which reflect the values of currencies in world markets. But exchange rates do not always give an accurate picture of the purchasing power of incomes within domestic economies. One alternative is to convert GNI per capita to dollars using purchasing power parities (see below).

. . . and standards of living GNI per capita, 2001 ($)

Purchasing power parities (PPPs), estimated by comparing the prices of similar goods and services between countries, give a clearer picture of comparative standards of living. When they are used to convert the GNI of each country to a common currency, the share of world income in low- and middle-income countries is larger, reflecting the lower cost of many goods and Share of PPP GNI Low services in those income 12% countries. In 2001 world Lower middle GNI valued in PPP terms High income income 23% was $45.2 trillion, with 56% Upper 44 percent produced in middle income developing countries. 9%

8


Japan United States United Kingdom Germany France Canada Italy Spain Korea, Rep. Mexico Brazil Russian Federation China Indonesia India

Atlas method

Purchasing power parity

35,610 34,280 25,120 23,560 22,730 21,930 19,390 14,300 9,460 5,530 3,070 1,750 890 690 460

25,550 34,280 24,340 25,240 24,080 26,530 24,530 19,860 15,060 8,240 7,070 6,880 3,950 2,830 2,820

3

GNI per capita, 2001 Low-income countries ($745 or less) Lower-middle-income countries ($746–2,975) Upper-middle-income countries ($2,976–9,205) High-income countries ($9,206 or more) No data

GNI per capita converted to US$ using the World Bank Atlas method.


9

Urban demands on the world’s environment People are using more natural resources than ever, and demands on the environment will only increase. The global economy, having expanded more than sevenfold since 1950, is still expanding. By far the greatest expansion has come from activities in cities and towns. Cities, now home to almost half the world’s people, are growing rapidly in size and number, especially in developing regions. People flock to cities in search of work, access to public services, and a higher standard of living. In developing economies urbanization is greatest in Latin America, where the urban population accounts for 76

percent of the total. Sub-Saharan Africa, with only 32 percent of its people in urban areas, remains quite rural by comparison. By 2030, 60 percent of the world’s people will live in urban areas, resulting in further demand on natural resources and urban services, with environmental consequences, including pollution of air and water.

Latin America is the most urban— South Asia, the least

Population living in urban areas (%)

Share of global urban population

2001

(1,742 million)

(2,891 million)

Low income 22%

Population living in urban areas (%) 1980

1980

Upper middle 14%

In many towns and cities exposure to air pollution is the main environmental threat to human health. Long-term exposure to high levels of soot and small particles (fine suspended particulates less than 10 microns in diameter) in the air also contributes to a wide range of effects, including respiratory diseases, lung cancer, and heart disease. Urbanization by itself is not the environmental issue. Instead, environmental problems arise as a byproduct of transport, industrial activities, and the overcrowding of human habitation. The problems include pollution of the air and water and accumulation of solid waste. The largest and most important cost of urban pollution is to human health. Air and water pollution in many of the world’s major cities cause tens of thousands of deaths, millions of cases of moderate to severe sickness, and billions of dollars in lost productivity and other damages. Not only are the human and financial costs of pollution large, they tend to fall disproportionately on the poor. So addressing pollution is justified on equity grounds as well as economic and environmental grounds.

Urban populations rise with income

Lower-income countries are becoming more urban

High income 34%

Urbanization and environment

World

2001

Low income 27% Lower middle

Lower middle 30%

Upper middle 13%

Middle East & North Africa

Lower middle 34%

Upper middle

0


2001

South Asia

Europe & Central Asia

High income

10

1980

East Asia & Pacific

Low income

High income 26%

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America & Caribbean 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Particulate matter, 1999 Micrograms per cubic meter More than 80 46–80 31–45 22–30 Less than 22

Freshwater resources per capita, 2000 Cubic meters Less than 1,000 1,000–1,699 1,700–3,999 4,000–9,999 10,000 or more No data


4

Particulate matter refers to fine suspended particulates capable of penetrating deep into the respiratory tract and causing significant health damage. Particulate pollution, on its own or in combination with sulfur dioxide, leads to an enormous burden of ill health. Where coal is the primary fuel for power plants, steel mills, and heating, the result is usually high levels of urban air pollution and, if the coal’s sulfur content is high, widespread acid deposition.

Water is crucial to economic development— and to the survival of ecosystems. But more than 1 billion people lack access to safe water, and 600 million live in countries facing water stress (less than 1,700 cubic meters of water a year per person). Global per capita water supplies have declined by a third over the past 25 years. Further economic and population growth will boost the demand for water. By 2050 the share of the world’s population facing water stress could increase fivefold.

11

Many people are still poor Although poverty has many dimensions, income is the most common way of measuring it. The proportion of people in developing countries living on less than $1 a day declined from 29 percent in 1990 to 23 percent in 1999, which is still unacceptably high. The Millennium Development Goals aim to reduce the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day in 1990 by half in 2015—to 14.5 percent. If developing countries grow as projected, the proportion of poor people will fall to 13.3 percent, exceeding the goal. Such growth, based on good policies and productive investments, would reduce the number of poor people

from 1.2 billion in 1999 to about 800 million in 2015. But not all regions would succeed. East Asia and Pacific should readily achieve the target, but the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa will make little progress. In fact, Sub-Saharan Africa will fall far short, with more than 400 million people continuing to live on less than $1 a day.

With sustained growth, many regions will reach the goal, but Sub-Saharan Africa remains severely off-track Share of people living on less than $1 a day, actual and projected (%)

On target

Close to target

Sub-Saharan Africa

40

East Asia & Pacific

20

Latin America & Caribbean

South Asia

10 Middle East & North Africa

0

12

1990



1999

There is almost never just one way to measure an economic indicator, and income poverty is no exception. Most countries set their own poverty lines. But to measure poverty across countries, an international poverty line is needed. The $1 a day poverty line was chosen as representative of typical poverty lines prevailing in a sample of low-income countries. Poverty at this level is sometimes called “extreme poverty.” To estimate poverty in a country, the $1 a day poverty line is converted to local currency units using purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. However, PPP rates are themselves a product of a complex and error-prone data collection process. And different methods of deriving them can change the relative value of expenditures between countries. Poverty measures based on international poverty lines should not be confused with estimates based on national poverty lines. Most poverty analysis by the World Bank is based on national poverty lines. The PPP-based international poverty line is required only to estimate aggregate poverty across countries, so that people with the same purchasing power are treated the same no matter where they live.

Despite progress, millions remain in extreme poverty of less than $1 a day— and millions more live on less than $2 a day

Off target

50

30

Measuring poverty

2015

1990

1999

2015

Share of people living on less than $1 a day (%) East Asia & Pacific Excluding China Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Total

30.5 24.2 1.4 11.0 2.1 45.0 47.4 29.6

15.6 10.6 5.1 11.1 2.2 36.6 49.0 23.2

3.9 1.1 1.4 7.5 2.1 15.7 46.0 13.3

Share of people living on less than $2 a day (%) East Asia & Pacific Excluding China Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Total

69.7 64.9 6.8 27.6 21.0 89.8 76.0 62.1

50.1 50.2 20.3 26.0 23.3 84.8 74.7 55.6

16.6 18.4 9.3 18.9 16.0 68.0 70.4 38.1

Population below $1 a day, 1984–2001 50.0% or more 20.0–49.9% 10.0–19.9% 5.0–9.9% Less than 5.0% No data

Population below $2 a day, 1984–2001 50.0% or more 20.0–49.9% 10.0–19.9% 5.0–9.9% Less than 5.0% No data


5

A poverty line set at $1 a day (updated to $1.08 in 1993 prices) has been accepted as the working definition of extreme poverty in low-income countries. An estimated 1.2 billion people live below that poverty line.

A poverty line of $2 a day (updated to $2.15 in 1993 prices) is closer to national poverty lines in middle-income countries. In 1999 an estimated 2.8 billion people were living on less than $2 a day— more than half the population of the developing world.

13

Millennium Development Goals The Millennium Development Goals, adopted unanimously by the members of the United Nations in September 2000, summarize and give substance to the commitments embodied in the Millennium Declaration. The Goals underscore the paramount task of development as improving the welfare of all people on Earth.

Key to country progress The Millennium Development Goals set quantified time-bound targets. The graphs show the proportion of countries at each stage of progress measured by some of the key indicators over the period 1990–2001. See pages 72 and 73 for a complete list of the Millennium Development Goals, targets, and indicators. ■ Countries in dark green have already reached the target. The challenge for them is to continue forward and not fall back. ■ Countries in light green are on track to reach the target by the agreed date. ■ Countries in orange are off track. They are unlikely to reach the goals unless progress is accelerated. ■ Countries in red are seriously off track. For some, outcomes have worsened. They are very unlikely to reach the goals. ■ Countries in gray lack adequate data to measure progress. Their statistical systems need improvements to provide a complete and accurate picture of their progress. This is an assessment of where we stand now, not a prediction of where the regions will end up.

Ambitious, but achievable, and mutually reinforcing, the Goals should be viewed together: • Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Achieve universal primary education • Promote gender equality and empower women • Reduce child mortality

• Improve maternal health • Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and many other diseases • Ensure environmental sustainability • Develop a global partnership for development

East Asia & Pacific


23 countries

28 countries

100

100

50

50

0

0

Child malnutrition

14

(2,000 million people)

Primary school completion


Gender equality in school

Child mortality

Births attended by skilled personnel

Access to water

Child malnutrition

(480 million people)



Child mortality


Access to water

6 Latin America & Caribbean


33 countries


16 countries

100

100

50

50

0

0

Child malnutrition



Child mortality


Access to water

South Asia

Target: Achieve 100% primary school completion by 2015. Indicator: Percentage of children completing last grade of primary school.

Child malnutrition



Child mortality


Access to water

Sub-Saharan Africa

8 countries

(1,380 million people)

48 countries

100

100

50

50

0

0

Child malnutrition




Child mortality


Access to water

Target: Reduce child malnutrition by half between 1990 and 2015. Indicator: Prevalence among children under five.


Target: Achieve gender equality in enrollment ratios by 2005. Indicator: Ratio of girls to boys enrolled in primary and secondary school. Target: Reduce child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Indicator: Mortality rate for children under five. Target: Achieve attendance at 90% of deliveries by trained health personnel by 2015. Indicator: Percentage of births attended by skilled personnel.

Child malnutrition



Child mortality


Access to water


Target: Reduce the proportion of people without access to water by half between 1990 and 2015. Indicator: Percentage of population without access to an improved water source.

15

Education opens doors “Education can be the difference between a life of grinding poverty and the potential for a full and secure one; between a child dying from preventable disease, and families raised in healthy environments; …between countries ripped apart by poverty and conflict, and access to secure and sustainable development.”

Enrolling children and keeping them in school Education is development. It creates choices and opportunities for people, reduces the twin burdens of poverty and disease, and gives a stronger voice in society. For nations it creates a dynamic workforce and wellinformed citizenry able to compete and cooperate globally—opening doors to economic and social prosperity. The 1990 United Nations Conference on Education for All pledged to achieve universal primary education by 2000. But in 2000, 115 million school-age children were still not in school. Of those, 56 percent were girls and 94 percent were in developing countries—mostly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Development Goals set a more realistic, but still difficult, deadline of 2015. To reach the education Goal countries must first enroll all school-age children. Then they must keep them in school. While the majority of developing countries have already built sufficient schools to educate all their primary school-age children, only about a quarter of these countries retain all the children through primary graduation. According to a World Bank study, only 37 of 155 developing countries analyzed have achieved universal primary completion. Based on trends in the 1990s, another 32 are likely to achieve that goal. But 70 countries risk not reaching the goal unless progress is accelerated. In several of them completion rates have stagnated or even fallen in recent years.

—Nelson Mandela and Graca Machel In developing countries, investment in education is seen as the most important way out of poverty, and parents make considerable sacrifices to keep their children in school. This is because illiteracy limits the ability of individuals to secure employment and to take

advantage of government services. Poor people recognize that literacy would help them manage their lives better. But quality matters. Schooling has become a disappointment for many. In some countries poor parents find the costs of education greater than the benefits.

The world is not on track to achieve primary education for all

Not all who start primary school will finish

Primary school completion rate (%)

Primary school gross enrollment and completion rates, 2000 (%)

100

120

Enrollment

Completion

100 80

80 World 60

60

40 Sub-Saharan Africa Actual Current trend Required trend to achieve the goal

40

0 1990

16

20


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Bangladesh

Benin

Chad

Paraguay

Indonesia

Madagascar

7

Primary completion rate, 1995–2001 Percentage of relevant age group Less than 50% 50–74% 75–84% 85–94% 95% or more No data

In India rich students are far more likely to attend school . . .

. . . as are urban students . . .

Completion rate, 1999 (%) 100

. . . and male students . . .



Urban students

Richest 20% of students

Primary completion rates measure the proportion of all children of official graduation age who complete primary school.


Rich male students

Male students

80 Rural students

80

. . . creating a huge gap between rich male and poor female students

80

80

Female students 60

60

60

60

40

40

40

40

20

20

20

20

Poorest 20% of students

0

1

2

3

Poor female students

4

5 Grade

6

7

8

9

0

1

2

3

4

5 Grade

6

7

8

9

0

1

2

3

4

5 Grade

6

7

8

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Grade


17

Gender and development Women have an enormous impact on the well-being of their families and societies—yet their potential is not realized because of discriminatory social norms, incentives, and legal institutions. And while their status has improved in recent decades, gender inequalities remain pervasive. Women and girls bear the largest and most direct cost, but persistent inequalities limit the ability of societies to grow, reduce pover ty, and govern effectively. In 2000 65 million girls did not attend primar y school. Mothers’ illiteracy and lack of schooling directly disadvantage their young children. Women with no

education are half as likely as women with a secondar y education to immunize their children. Female illiteracy and low female education also hur t economic productivity. In Kenya raising the level of education and resources available to female farmers to the level of male farmers could increase yields by as much as 22 percent.

Closing the gender gap

In most regions, illiteracy is higher among young women

Recognizing that empowering women extends beyond the classroom and the household, the Millennium Development Goals include three additional indicators of gender equality: illiteracy rates, the proportion of women working outside agriculture, and the proportion of seats women hold in national parliaments.

Most members of parliaments are men

Unpaid family workers, most recent year available (% of employment)

Women in parliamentary seats, 2002 (% of total)

Mozambique South Asia

Bangladesh

Bulgaria Vietnam

Sub-Saharan Africa

Turkey


Ethiopia


Thailand

East Asia & Pacific

Egypt, Arab Rep.

China India Brazil Thailand Indonesia Russian Federation Kenya Nigeria

Male

Boys Guatemala

Female

Girls 0


Gender inequality star ts early and keeps women at a disadvantage throughout their lives. In some countries, infant girls are less likely to sur vive than infant boys because of parental discrimination and neglect—even though biologically infant girls should sur vive in greater numbers. Girls are more likely to drop out of school and to receive less education than boys because of discrimination, education expenses, and household duties. Later in life, low education levels and their responsibilities for household work prevent women from participating in high-income employment and decisionmaking. Although women’s participation in the labor force has increased in almost every region, women typically occupy low-paid, low-status jobs or work in family enterprises. Even when women work in the same sector as men, their wages are usually lower. Women’s participation in politics and government also remains limited, making it difficult for them to influence policy. Yet investing in women significantly boosts family well-being and economic growth. Educated mothers tend to start their families later, have fewer children, and take better care of them. And when women and men are relatively equal, economies generally grow faster—benefiting both sexes. Because women’s contributions are so crucial for a country’s development, active measures are needed to achieve gender equality. Women account for a much larger share of unpaid family workers

Youth illiteracy, 2001 (% of 15- to 24-year-olds)


18

Gender equality is important throughout women’s lives

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

Yemen 0

10

20

30

40

50

8

Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary school, 2000 Less than 90% 90–94% 95–99% 100–104% 105% or more No data

Fewer children under five die as mothers’ education increases

Loans to women can boost family welfare more than loans to men

Growth would have been faster had education been more nearly equal

Deaths per 1,000

As Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank shows, providing credit directly to women can empower them within the household, helping to increase their consumption and that of their children and contributing to other measures of welfare. Effect of female borrowing

Effect of male borrowing

Increase in boys’ schooling

6.1

7.2

Increase in girls’ schooling

4.7

3.0

Welfare change (% increase)

Increase in per capita spending

4.3

1.8

Reduction in recent fertility

3.5

7.4

10.4

0.0

Increase in women’s labor supply

Average annual growth in GNI per capita, 1960–92

Actual Eritrea, 1995 Sub-Saharan Africa Bolivia, 1998

Indonesia, 1997

South Asia

Turkey, 1998 No education

19.9


Primary Jordan, 1997

Increase in women’s nonland assets

Estimated growth with narrower gender gap

The ratio of girls to boys in school has increased considerably over the past two decades, especially in Latin America and East Asia. But it remains low in much of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Secondary and above

0.0 0

50

100

150

200

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0


19

Children under five—struggling to survive More than 10 million children die each year in the developing world, the vast majority from causes preventable through a combination of good care, nutrition, and medical treatment. Mortality among children under five has been declining at an average rate of 1 percent a year. Mortality rates for children under five dropped by 19 percent in the past two decades, but the rates remain high in developing countries. In low-income countries, one child in eight dies before its fifth birthday, compared with 1 in 143 in high-income countries. Child deaths have dropped rapidly in the past 25 years, but progress everywhere slowed in the 1990s, and a few countries have experienced increases in the same period.

Significant challenges remain in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. At current rates of progress, only a few countries are likely to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing child mortality to one-third of their 1990 levels. At the end of the 20th century fewer than 30 countries—most of them middleincome—were on a path to do so. Current trends raise the possibility that many developing countries will not reach the goal.

Malnutrition weakens children, reducing their resistance to disease Although child mortality rates have been declining in every region, progress has not been even. In 2001, 47 countries had child mortality rates greater than 100 per 1,000 live births. Ten countries—eight in Sub-Saharan Africa—had mortality rates of more than 200. A major factor contributing to child mortality is malnutrition, which weakens children and reduces their resistance to disease. Malnutrition plays a role in more than half of all child deaths. Educating girls is the best What are children dying of? strategy for reducing child deaths. Deaths among children under five, global, 1999 Babies of mothers with no formal Acute education are twice as likely to die Other 29% respiratory infections 20% before age five as are babies of mothers with more than primary Deaths education. Other effective intervenassociated with Diarrhea tions include immunizations against malnutrition 12% 60% major endemic diseases, and access to appropriate care, reliable water, and improved sanitation. In all countries the poorest are least likely to receive health care, and so have the highest mortality rates. Urban children tend to be healthier

Developing regions still see many children die before the age of five

300

Rural children

250

200

East Asia & Pacific

Sub-Saharan Africa Mid

dle

Eas

t&

150 Latin America & Caribbean

Nor

th A

Male

Egypt, 2000

Bangladesh, 1999–2000

Armenia, 2000

Cambodia, 2000

Cambodia, 2000

Bolivia, 2000

Haiti, 2000

Ethiopia, 2000

Malawi, 2000

Female

South Asia

fric

a

100

50 Europe & Central Asia


Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

Urban children

Armenia, 2000

Malaria 8%

HIV/AIDS 4%

In most of the world child mortality is higher for boys



Measles 5%

Perinatal causes 22%

0 1960

20

1965


1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2001

0

50

100

150

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

9

Under-five mortality rate, 2001 Per 1,000 live births 100 or more 50–99

Kazakhstan

20–49

Under-five mortality Per 1,000 live births

10–19 Less than 10

99

No data

52

1990

2001

Tanzania Under-five mortality Per 1,000 live births

Côte d’Ivoire Under-five mortality Per 1,000 live births

163

India Under-five mortality Per 1,000 live births

165

175

123

155

93

Bolivia Under-five mortality Per 1,000 live births

1990 1990

77

Good health care reduces child mortality Deaths of children under five years old are a sensitive indicator of the availability, quality, and use of health care. Moreover, given the association with income per capita, family income, mother’s education, and nutrition, deaths of children under five are also a good indicator of a community’s overall socioeconomic development.

1990

2001

Under-five mortality Per 1,000 live births

122

1990

2001

Zambia

2001

192

202

1990

2001

2001

Richer children have better access to treatment for diarrhea . . .

. . . and immunization

Children receiving treatment in a public facility (%) Poorest 20%

Turkey, 1993

Richest 20%

So they are less likely to die

Children lacking immunization coverage (%)


Poorest 20%

Turkey, 1993

Richest 20%

Colombia, 1995

Colombia, 1995

Turkey, 1993



Bolivia, 1998

Burkina Faso, 1992–93

Burkina Faso, 1992–93

India, 1992–94

Côte d’Ivoire, 1994

Côte d’Ivoire, 1994

Malawi, 1992

0

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

Poorest 20%

Indonesia, 1997

Richest 20%

0

100

200

Child deaths have dropped rapidly in the past 25 years, but progress slowed everywhere in the 1990s. Under-five mortality rates remain high in developing countries, and a few countries experienced increases in child deaths.

300


21

Improving the health of mothers Worldwide, more than 50 million women suffer from poor reproductive health and serious pregnancy-related illness and disability. And every year more than 500,000 women die from complications of pregnancy and childbirth. Most of the deaths occur in Asia, but the risk of dying is highest in Africa. Women in high-fertility countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have a 1-in-16 lifetime risk of dying from maternal causes, compared with women in low-fertility countries in Europe, who have a 1-in-2,000 risk, and in North America, who have a 1-in3,500 risk of dying. High maternal mortality rates in many countries are the result of inadequate reproductive health care for

Why do mothers die? The higher rates of maternal mortality throughout much of the developing world are the result of serious neglect of women’s reproductive health, particularly for the poorest women, as well as ineffective interventions. Maternal deaths reflect the disparities between the standing of men and women in society and the inequities in access to education, health, and nutrition resources. Recent progress on maternal health in developing countries has been mixed, with maternal mortality rates remaining fairly constant globally. Greater access to family planning can help reduce the maternal mortality rate by reducing the number of pregnancies. In addition to contraception, women need access to a broad range of services. The primary means of preventing maternal deaths is to provide rapid access to emergency obstetrical care, including treatment of hemorrhages, infections, hypertension, and obstructed labor. It is also important to ensure that a midwife, nurse, or doctor is present at every delivery. In developing countries only about half of deliveries are attended by professional health staff. Skilled attendants must be supported by the right environment. Lifesaving interventions—such as antibiotics, surgery, and transportation to medical centers—are unavailable to many women, especially in rural areas. These women may lack the money for health care and transport, or they may simply lack their husbands’ permission to seek care.

women. Compounding the risks that high fertility poses to maternal health are poorly timed and inadequately spaced births. Even where fertility rates are low, the timing and spacing of pregnancies, and the extent to which the births are wanted, warrant attention. Contraception to limit, space, or time pregnancies can help reduce these risks.

Sub-Saharan Africa suffers a huge number of maternal deaths

Contraceptive use is much lower in the Middle East and Africa

Number of women who die during pregnancy and childbirth, 2000 (per 100,000 live births)

Women using or with partners using contraception, 1991–2000 (%)

70

1,000

60 800 50 600

40 30

400

20 200 10 0

22

East Asia & Pacific



Latin America Middle East & Caribbean & North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

0

East Asia & Pacific


Latin America Middle East & & Caribbean North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

10

Total fertility rate, 2001 Births per woman 4.5 or more 3.5–4.5 2.5–3.5 1.5–2.5 Less than 1.5 No data

Medical care is often lacking during pregnancy

Many pregnancies result in abortions or unplanned births Latin America & Caribbean, 1994

Richer women are more likely to have a skilled attendant at delivery

Pregnant women ages 15–49 receiving prenatal care (%)

Middle East & North Africa, 1994

Births attended by skilled health staff (%)

12% 28%

Bangladesh

18%

38%

58% 19%

Egypt

12% 15% Sub-Saharan Africa, 1994

3% Wanted births

Japan, 1992

11%

Colombia

25%

10% 3%

Mis-timed births Unwanted births

Kenya

76%

1993–94

Poorest 20%

Chad, 1996–97

1999–2000 1992

Richest 20%

Morocco, 1993

2000 1993

India, 1992–93

1998 1990

Indonesia, 1997

2000

The total fertility rate, the number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime, has important impacts on maternal health. In high-fertility countries a woman risks pregnancy-related death many times during her reproductive lifetime.

36% Kazakhstan

1995

Dominican Rep., 1996

1999

36% Cambodia

1998

Uzbekistan, 1996

2000

Abortions

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100


23

Global killers HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria are the world’s biggest killers, and all have their greatest impact among poor countries and poor people. These diseases interact in ways that make their combined impact worse. Effective prevention and treatment programs will save lives, reduce poverty, and help economies develop. The economic burden of epidemics such as tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV/AIDS on families and communities is enormous. Estimates suggest that tuberculosis costs the average patient three to four months of lost earnings, which can represent up to 30 percent of annual household income. Malaria slows economic growth in Africa by about 1.3 percent a year. Compounded over 35 years in

Big threats to health With an estimated 42 million people living with HIV/AIDS and more than 20 million deaths, the epidemic poses a great threat to public health and to development. In many countries it is swiftly dismantling the development achievements of the past 50 years by infecting the young disproportionately and killing adults in their prime. UNAIDS projects that an additional 45 million people will become infected with HIV in developing countries between 2002 and 2010, with more than 40 percent of the cases occurring in the East Asia and Pacific region. Tuberculosis is the main cause of death from a single infectious agent among adults 15–45 years old. Africa has the highest tuberculosis rates, but Asia carries the greatest absolute burden and the epidemic is worsening in Europe and Central Asia. Poor people are especially vulnerable because of their underlying health problems and limited access to treatment. And people with weak immune systems are at greater risk—up to 60 percent of tuberculosis patients are HIV positive in some Sub-Saharan African countries. Malaria is endemic in more than 100 countries. It disproportionately affects poor people and contributes to poverty by reducing the productivity of infected people and their caretakers. Approximately 60 percent of all deaths from malaria occur among the poorest 20 percent of the world’s population.

countries where malaria is endemic, this means that GDP is about a third lower than it might have been. And when the prevalence of HIV/AIDS reaches 8 percent— about where it is for 13 African countries today—the cost in economic growth is estimated at about 1 percent a year. The fiscal cost is as much as 2–3 times per capita GDP (without antiretrovirals) annually in the poorest countries.

Averting infection saves many years of life

Bednets keep malaria-carrying mosquitos away

Years of expected life lost

Children under five who sleep under an insecticide-treated bednet (%)

20

60 50

15

40 30

10 20 10 5

24


R

r

PD o

as ca

La

Ch ad

ag ad M

an Sã d o Pr To in m ci é pe M al aw i Ni ge Th r e Ga m bi a Vi et na m Ta jik is ta n Ca m er oo n Se ne ga l Gu ya n a Az er ba Si ija er n ra Le on e Ta nz an ia

0

0 Malaria

Measles

Tuberculosis

HIV infection

11

Adult HIV prevalence, 2001 8.00% or more 5.00—7.99% 1.00—4.99% 0.50—0.99% Less than 0.50% No data Tuberculosis cases, 2000

Dominican Republic 147 cases per 100,000 people

Kenya

Cameroon

484 cases

341 cases

Cambodia 572 cases per 100,000 people

per 100,000 people

per 100,000 people

Botswana

Chile

757 cases

25 cases

per 100,000 people

South Africa

per 100,000 people

576 cases per 100,000 people

It is also reducing life expectancy . . .

AIDS is decimating the workforce in several African countries Workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and 2020, selected African countries (%)

2005

2020

Impact of AIDS on life expectancy at birth, 2000–05 (years lost compared with “no-AIDS” case)

. . . and leaving many orphans

The most common measure of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is the percentage of adults living with HIV. Because HIV/AIDS reduces resistance to tuberculosis, the map also shows, for selected countries, the tuberculosis prevalence rate.

AIDS orphans as share of total orphans, selected countries

35 South Africa

Botswana

Malawi

Zimbabwe

Cameroon

Malawi

15

Cambodia

Haiti

10

Thailand

Thailand

Brazil

Cambodia

30 25 20

5

2001 2010

0 Botswana

Cameroon

Guinea-Bissau

Mozambique

South Africa

Zimbabwe

0

10

20

0

20

40

60

80 100


25

The education vaccine The education of young people merits the highest priority in a world afflicted by HIV/AIDS. Why? Because education is the most effective—and the most cost-effective—means of preventing new cases. But the disease is destroying education systems in developing countries. HIV/AIDS appears to be doing the most damage to education supply and quality in Africa, where mortality rates are increasing sharply among teachers and administrators at all levels. An estimated 860,000 children in Sub-Saharan Africa lost teachers to AIDS in 1999. Moreover, many teachers are sick, ineffective, or underqualified because schools must make do with available staff or cut corners on training. Less

Education can protect girls and women from HIV Girls and young women are highly vulnerable to HIV/AIDS—and a lack of education makes them more so. Girls are at greater risk than boys because of gender inequalities in status, power, and access to resources. Education is among the most powerful tools for reducing the social and economic vulnerabilities that expose women to a higher risk of HIV/AIDS than men. An analysis of demographic and household surveys from 32 countries conducted since the early 1990s found that nearly half of all illiterate women lacked the basic knowledge to protect themselves against HIV/AIDS. Studies also show that: • Women with a post-secondary education are three times more likely than uneducated women to know that HIV can be transmitted from mother to child. • In Zimbabwe secondary education had a protective effect against HIV infection for women that extended at least into early adulthood. • In 17 countries in Africa and 4 in Latin America better-educated girls tended to start having sex later, and were more likely to require male partners to use condoms. • In Uganda infection rates fell among young women of all educational backgrounds—but the decline was greatest among those with a secondary education.

clear is the epidemic’s impact on the demand for education. School-age populations are expected to grow in almost all developing countries, though they will be smaller than in the absence of HIV/AIDS. Only in the worst-affected countries will school-age populations be smaller in 2015. But in all countries AIDS orphans are less likely to enroll in school and more likely to drop out.

Why action on HIV/AIDS is so urgent for education

Many teachers in Africa will die of AIDS Percentage of teachers who will die of AIDS, selected African countries, 2000–2010

25

HIV prevalence grows

Teacher deaths rise, teaching quality falls, and AIDS orphans and out-of-school youth increase

Public budgets for health and education dry up

The vicious cycle of HIV/AIDS and education

23

20

18 15

15

10 Economic growth declines

Illiteracy expands, skilled workforce shrinks, and human capital deteriorates

5 5

Country’s ability to compete in the knowledge economy suffers

0 Zimbabwe

26


Zambia

Kenya

Uganda

12

Adult illiteracy, 2001 Percentage of population ages 15 and older 50% or more 25–49% 15–24% 5–14% Less than 5% No data

Morocco

China

Illiteracy among ages 15–24, 2001 (%)


40 23

Male

Ethiopia

Female

1


Pakistan

3 Female


50

Nigeria

Male

38

57


28 Male

Brazil

10


Male

6

A basic education can inform children and youth and equip them to make decisions about their lives, bring about longterm behavioral change, and give them the opportunity for economic independence. So, by strengthening education systems, countries can offer a window of hope unlike any other for escaping the grip of HIV/AIDS.

15 Male

Female

Female

3

Male

Education—a window of hope

Female

Female

AIDS reduces the demand for schooling

Enrollment would be higher without AIDS

Projected reduction in size of primary school–age population by 2010, selected African countries (%)

Men know more than women about AIDS

Net enrollment ratio in Zambia (%)

Illiterate people are less likely to understand how diseases are transmitted and how to protect themselves. Also shown for selected countries are the illiteracy rates for a narrower age group of males and females 15 to 24 years old—the age group that are particularly vulnerable to HIV/AIDS.

Percentage points by which men’s awareness exceeds that of women

100

Niger, 1998

Zimbabwe 80

In absence of HIV/AIDS

Chad, 1997 In presence of HIV/AIDS

Zambia

60

Kenya


40

Eritrea, 1995

20

Nigeria, 1999

Uganda Turkey, 1998

0 0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


27

Limited land and more mouths to feed Land is one of the world’s most important natural resources, yet it is increasingly degraded—mainly because of human activities. And although food production outpaces population growth in most regions, the demand for food is mounting and many of the world’s people are going hungry. Whether the world will continue to be able to feed itself will largely depend on how land and other natural resources are managed. The world’s growing population means that intense pressure on land will continue, particularly in Africa and Asia. This requires increasing crop and livestock yields and intensifying land use. In addition, the harvesting and processing of agricultural

products must be made more efficient. But current projections indicate that meeting the growing demand for food will also require expanding arable areas in developing countries. Such expansions must come from converting additional forests and woodlands or from bringing into cultivation fragile semi-arid areas. Both approaches raise serious environmental concerns.

Food production has outpaced world population growth globally and in every region except Sub-Saharan Africa

Causes and extent of land degradation Degradation significantly reduces land’s productive capacity and threatens current and future global food security. Among the causes of land degradation are overgrazing, deforestation, bad farming practices (including improper crop rotation and poor irrigation methods), removal of natural vegetation, poor soil and water management, and frequent use of heavy machinery. Around the world, land degradation stands at: • 680 million hectares degraded by overgrazing. About one-fifth of the world’s pastures and rangelands have been damaged. Recent losses have been most severe in Africa and Asia. • 580 million hectares degraded by deforestation. Vast swaths of forests have been degraded by large-scale logging and by clearance for farm and urban uses. During 1975–1990 more than 220 million hectares of tropical forests were destroyed, mainly for food production. • 550 million hectares degraded by agricultural mismanagement. Water erosion causes 25 billion tons of soil to be lost each year, and some 40 million hectares of land suffer from soil salinization and waterlogging. • 137 million hectares degraded by fuelwood consumption. Each year 1.7 billion cubic meters of fuelwood are harvested from forests and plantations. In many developing regions wood is the primary source of energy. Land degradation is a serious problem in many regions

Population growth and food production (1980 = 100)

Millions of hectares

180

World Population Food production

2,000

Sub-Saharan Africa Population Food production

1,500

160

Degraded land

1,000

140

500

120

0 100 1980

28

Nondegraded land

1982


1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Africa

Asia

Latin America

Forest & woodland

Africa

Asia

Latin America

Permanent pasture

Africa

Asia

Latin America

Agricultural land

13

Arable land, 1998–2000 Hectares per capita Less than 0.10 0.10–0.19 0.20–0.29 0.30–0.49 0.50 or more No data

China Cereal yield (kilograms per hectare)

4,869

3,022

India

Sub-Saharan Africa

1979–81

Cereal yield (kilograms per hectare)


1999– 2001

2,321

Argentina

1,324


895

1,188 1979–81

1979–81

3,397

1999– 2001

1999– 2001

2,184

1979–81

1999– 2001

Although low-income countries are using more land to produce food . . .

. . . agricultural land per capita has fallen . . .

Land under cereal production (millions of hectares)

Land under cereal production (hectares per 1,000 people)

Low-income 1979–81 countries 1999–2001

. . . and agricultural yields have changed only modestly . . .

. . . despite an increase in the use of agricultural machinery

Cereal yields (thousands of kilograms per hectare)

Low-income 1979–81 countries 1999–2001

Agricultural machinery per 1,000 hectares of arable land

1979–81


Lower-middleincome countries



Upper-middleincome countries








100

200

300

0

50

100

150

200

0

1

2

3

1979–81


1999–2001


0

4

Over the last two decades arable land per capita has declined globally. Arable land areas traditionally have been the main sources of agricultural growth. With increasing demand for diversified crop and livestock products, the world is now largely dependent on increased yields to expand agricultural supply.

5

1999–2001

0

10

20

30

40

50


29

Forests shrinking Forests contribute to the livelihoods of 90 percent of the 1.2 billion people living in extreme poverty. They nourish the natural systems supporting the agriculture and food supplies on which many more people depend. They account for as much as 90 percent of terrestrial biodiversity. But in most countries they are shrinking. The Earth Summit in 1992 recognized that forests provide essential public goods including ecosystem of global value, such as carbon sequestration, nutrient and hydrological cycling, and biodiversity preservation. The loss in the tropics, alone, is responsible for between 10 and 30 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, with the great majority of this destruction from human actions.

Some loss of forest is an inevitable par t of economic development. But because forests are under valued in many places, they are subject to more destructive and unsustainable activities than is economically or environmentally justified. And forest loss is taking a terrible toll on both the natural and economic resources of many countries.

Forests now cover about 30 percent of all land

They shrank by 94 million hectares in the last decade

Forest as percentage of land

Change in forest areas, 1990–2000 (million hectares)



Europe

Europe

Protecting land areas to slow the loss of biodiversity Biological diversity, or biodiversity, refers to the variety of life on Earth, including the variety of plant and animal species, the genetic variability within each species, and the variety of different ecosystems. The Earth’s biodiversity is the result of millions of years of evolution of life on this planet. But human activities are causing losses in biodiversity 50 to 100 times faster than would be expected in the absence of human activities. The two most species-rich ecosystems are tropical forests and coral reefs. Tropical forests are under threat largely from conversion to other land uses, while coral reefs are experiencing increasing levels of overexploitation and pollution. The pressure on biodiversity is largely driven by economic development and related demands, including those for biological resources, habitat conversion and destruction, fragmentation of large ecosystems into smaller disconnected patches of original vegetation, and introduction or accidental release of exotic species that prove harmful to indigenous species. In response, several international conventions have been developed to conserve threatened species. One of the most widely used approaches for conserving habitat is to designate protected areas, such as national parks. The total area of protected sites has increased steadily in the past three decades. But protected land area is increasing Global area of protected sites (million square kilometers)

Number of protected sites (thousands)

1970

1980 North America

North America

Asia & Pacific

Asia & Pacific

Africa

Africa

1990

0

30

10


20

30

40

50

–60 –50 –40 –30 –20 –10

2000

0 10

0

3

6

9

12

15 0

3

6

9

12

Forest cover, 2000 Percentage of total land area Less than 5.0% 5.0–14.9% 15.0–29.9% 30.0–49.9%

14

Forest ecosystems play multiple roles globally and locally as providers of environmental services—and as sources of economically valued products.

50.0% or more No data

Deforestation, 1990–2000 Average annual percent 1.0% or more 0.5–0.9% 0.1–0.4% –0.4–0.0% Less than –0.4% No data

Over the past several centuries an estimated 60 percent of European forests, 30 percent of North American forests, and 35 percent of the former Soviet Union’s forest have been cleared, primarily for agricultural purposes. The greatest forest loss is now occurring in the speciesrich tropics. More than a fifth of the world’s tropical forests have been cleared since 1960.

Note: Negative numbers indicate increases in forest area. 2003 World Bank Atlas

31

Energy use and a warmer world The Earth’s climate has warmed by about half a degree Celsius this century and much scientific evidence suggests that human activities have contributed to this. The burning of coal, oil, and natural gas and the cutting of forests are changing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, changing our planet’s climate, with far-reaching consequences. Global warming shrinks glaciers, changes the frequency and intensity of rainfall, shifts growing seasons, advances the flowering of trees and emergence of insects, and causes the sea level to rise. The direction and magnitude of climate change

impact vary across regions, but developing countries are likely to suffer most because of their dependence on climate-sensitive activities—such as agriculture and fisheries. They also have limited capacity to respond to climate change.

Less oil, more coal used for electricity

Energy use, 2000

Others 0.2% Gas 9%

Others 1%

Coal 32% Nuclear 17% Hydropower 17%

India 5%

India 5% Other low-income 8%

Gas 17%

Oil 29%

Carbon dioxide emissions, 1999

2000

1980

Hydropower 21%

The extensive use of fossil fuels in recent decades has boosted carbon dioxide emissions—a major contributor to global warming. The heattrapping carbon (in the form of carbon dioxide) released each year by human activities is estimated at 6 to 7 billion tons. Some 2 billion tons are absorbed by oceans, and another 1.5 to 2.5 billion by plants, with the rest released in the atmosphere. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is up by some 30 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the rate and duration of warming in the 20th century are unprecedented in the past thousand years. The global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius, with the 1990s being the warmest decade since 1861. Increases in the maximum temperature and the number of hot days have been observed over nearly all regions. The warming is expected to continue, with increases projected to be in the range of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius between 1990 and 2100.

High-income economies use half the energy and emit half the carbon dioxide

Global sources of electricity generation

Nuclear 9%

Carbon dioxide emissions mean faster warming

Coal 40%

Oil 8%

Other high-income 29%

China 12%


China 13%

United States 24%

United States 23% Other middle-income 23%

32

Other high-income 27%

Other low-income 6%

Other middle-income 25%

Energy use per capita, 2000 Kilograms of oil equivalent 5,000 or more 2,500–4,999 1,000–2,499 500–999 Less than 500 No data

Carbon dioxide emissions, 1999 Metric tons per capita 10.0 or more 5.0–9.9 2.5–4.9 1.0–2.4 Less than 1.0 No data


15

The world’s growing population, with its desire for economic growth and a better quality of life, is raising the demand for energy. By far the most common way to satisfy the need for energy in modern economies is through burning fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Since 1950 fossil fuel use has increased more than fourfold.

Each year the use of fossil fuels releases billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. High income economies, with 15 percent of the world’s population, produce more than half the global emission of carbon dioxide—the most important contributor to global warming.

33

Growth and opportunity Without economic growth there can be no longterm poverty reduction. Economies that have achieved sustained growth—through productive investments in physical, social, and human capital—have significantly reduced poverty. Economies that have not grown have experienced stagnant or increasing rates of poverty. Between 1990 and 1999 GDP per capita in all developing countries grew by 1.2 percent a year, but growth was not evenly distributed and the effect on poverty varied widely. The greatest gains were made in the two fastest growing regions, East Asia and Pacific and South Asia. In Europe and Central Asia, which experienced a painful economic contraction, both the number and the proportion of

people living on less than $1 a day increased sharply. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa, growth rates were low, and poverty rates also remained stagnant. Whether growth helps to reduce poverty depends on how growth is distributed. A continuing challenge for development is to ensure that poor people are not left behind.

Some of the 30 poorest countries in 1960 experienced the fastest growth rates in the following 40 years, lifting millions out of poverty

After 40 years of slowdown, is the rate of growth accelerating? A faster rate of growth can have a profound effect on the welfare of people within a single generation. Even a small improvement can make a difference. An increase in annual growth from 1.75 percent to 3.5 percent reduces the time needed to double output from 40 years to 20 years. Between 1990 and 1999 gross domestic product per capita in East Asia and Pacific grew by 6.4 percent a year—75 percent in 9 years—and the poverty rate fell by half. Economic growth does not follow a smooth path, but for most of the last 40 years the rate of growth has been slowing—in both high-income and developing economies. Why? Growth opportunities from postwar reconstruction ran out. The energy crises of the 1970s interrupted growth in oil consuming countries. The growth slowdown contributed to increasing debt in developing economies, which, combined with poor macroeconomic management, left many with fewer opportunities for investment. But growth did not slow everywhere. The export-oriented economies of East Asia grew rapidly, creating new jobs and raising incomes. India, which liberalized its trade and investment policies, also began to grow faster. There are other signs of faster growth ahead. In the last two years, nine countries in Sub-Saharan Africa had per capita growth rates greater than 4 percent. As more countries recognize the need for an environment that encourages productive investment, more widespread growth will be possible. Weak policies and investor uncertainty caused a financial crisis in 1997–98 that spread from Asia to other vulnerable economies

GDP per capita (1995 dollars)

Annual growth of GDP per capita (%)

5,000

15 Botswana

4,000

10

Thailand

5

Malaysia

Korea, Rep.

Thailand

3,000

0

Philippines

2,000 –5 Indonesia 1,000 Low income cutoff, 2001

–10

Russian Federation

China Indonesia

Other 26 0

–15 1960

34


1970

1980

1990

2001

1990

1995

2001

16

GDP per capita growth, 1990–2001 Average annual percent Less than 0.0% 0.0–0.9% 1.0–1.9% 2.0–2.9% 3.0% or more No data

Over many years average growth rates have fallen, and low-income countries were frequently the slowest-growing—but that pattern is starting to change Annual growth in GDP per capita (%)

High income

Middle income

Low income

World trend

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The last 12 years saw a surge of growth, especially among countries that opened their economies to trade and investment. The transition economies of Europe and Central Asia experienced setbacks, but many are now growing rapidly.

–1 –2 –3 1961

1971

1981

1991

2001 2003 World Bank Atlas

35

The rise of the service economy Services are the fastest growing sector of the world economy. Since 1970 global output of services has increased by more than 250 percent. The service sector now accounts for two-thirds of global economic output. In developing countries the share of services in GDP increased from 42 percent in 1970 to more than 52 percent in 2001. Services form the backbone of a modern economy and make important contributions to economic growth and human welfare. Banking and financial services guide investment and savings to productive uses. Software development and computer services make possible the growth of a knowledge economy. Telecommunications

spread knowledge and improve the operation of markets. Transportation services contribute to the efficient distribution of goods. Wholesale and retail services are a vital link between producers and consumers and increase the efficiency of trade. Health and education services and the services provided by government improve the quality of people’s lives.

Services now account for two-thirds of global output . . .

Trade in services is growing Merchandise trade still accounts for about 80 percent of all world trade, but trade in services is growing in importance. Unlike merchandise, services are often intangible, invisible, and perishable. And they often require the supplier and consumer to be near to each other. For trade to take place, one of them must move. Trade in services is thus divided into four modes of supply: • Cross-border supply is similar to merchandise trade: the product (such as software or an insurance policy) moves from supplier to consumer. • Consumption abroad occurs when consumers travel abroad to purchase services such as tourism, education, or health care. • Commercial presence involves establishing a subsidiary in another country, which supplies the services locally. • Movement of individuals occurs when individuals move temporarily from their own country to another to supply services. Data on trade in ser vices are collected from balance of payments records, which cover primarily cross-border supply and consumption abroad. Commercial presence, involving foreign direct investment, is thought to be increasing. Trade through the movement of individuals is par ticularly impor tant for developing countries. Many more would be able to “expor t” their labor if rules governing temporar y immigration were liberalized. . . . and a fifth of global trade

Value added in services as share of GDP (%)

Exports of commercial services as share of total exports (%)

80

30

70 20

High income

High income

60

50

Middle income 10

Middle income

Low income

40 Low income 30

0 1980

36


1985

1990

1995

2001

1980

1985

1990

1995

2001

17

Services value added, 2001 Percentage of GDP Less than 35% 35–44% 45–54% 55–64% 65% or more No data

Services are the largest part of gross domestic product, except in East Asia and Pacific, where China’s manufacturing sector dominates Shares of value-added (%) 80

Services Services

60

Services

Industry

The service sector produces the largest share of gross domestic product in most high- and middle-income economies. Low-income economies are catching up.

Services

40

Industry

Industry

Agriculture Agriculture

Agriculture

Industry

20

Agriculture

0

1980

1985

1990

1995

East Asia & Pacific

2001

1980

1985

1990

1995


2001

1980

1985

1990

1995

South Asia

2001

1980

1985

1990

1995

2001

Sub-Saharan Africa 2003 World Bank Atlas

37

Investment for growth Almost a quarter of world output adds new assets needed for economic growth or replenishes those used up in production. Investment rates are highest in rapidly growing economies of East Asia and Pacific and lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. But demand is greatest in high-income economies, where investment exceeded $5 trillion in 2001. Investment is financed out of saving. Countries with high savings rates usually have high investment rates. But not all investment is financed from domestic sources. Countries can obtain financing from the savings of foreigners through lending or direct investment. If countries cannot obtain adequate external financing, they may not be able to achieve their desired level of investment,

limiting oppor tunities for growth. Investment generally refers to the acquisition of buildings and equipment, improvements to proper ty, and net changes in stocks of goods. Other investments—not measurable directly in monetar y terms— may be even more impor tant. Investments in people and in the institutions that help people work together raise productivity and incomes.

Domestic savings exceed investment needs in three regions

Foreign direct investment flows to countries with a good investment climate Foreign direct investment provides much needed capital for poor countries whose savings rates are low. It is also important for the transfer of new technology and management skills. Companies make foreign direct investments to establish a lasting interest in an enterprise or exert effective management control over it. They thus share in the risk of the enterprise and have a greater stake in its success. This makes foreign direct investment a stable source of investment. But it also means that developing country governments and businesses must create a sound investment climate, able to attract and hold foreign investors. That implies an open economy without burdensome restrictions, access to markets and links to the global economy, the absence of internal or external conflicts, and favorable macroeconomic policies to encourage economic growth. In 2001 foreign direct investment fell to $747 billion, a 49 percent drop from 2000 that reversed a steady increase since 1991. Almost 77 percent of the world’s foreign direct investment goes to developed countries. Among developing regions, Latin America and East Asia receive the largest share, with Brazil, China, and Mexico accounting for more than half the flows to developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where most of the poor live and with the greatest need to accelerate economic growth, receive less than 3 percent of foreign direct investment. Latin America and East Asia have been the largest recipients of foreign direct investment in the last decade

Savings minus investment as share of GDP, 1997–2001 (%)

Foreign direct investment ($ billions)

200

6

South Asia 175


4

Sub-Saharan Africa

150 2


125 100

East Asia & Pacific

0 75 50

–2

25 –4

Latin America & Caribbean South Asia

38



Sub-Saharan Africa



East Asia & Pacific

0 1990

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

2001

18

Gross capital formation, 2001 Percentage of GDP Less than 15% 15–19% 20–24% 25–29% 30% or more No data

Investment has increased rapidly in some developing countries, slowly in others Gross capital formation Billions of 1995 dollars

Share of GDP (%)

15

50

12

40

9

30

6

20

3

10

0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Mozambique

2001

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Bangladesh

2001

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Vietnam

2001

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

2001

Investment rates have been highest in East Asia and the Pacific and lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. But exceptions occur everywhere as domestic and foreign investors pursue new opportunities.

0

Albania 2003 World Bank Atlas

39

Improving the investment and business climate Investment is the foundation of growth. To attract and sustain investment, an economy must provide a good investment climate in which entrepreneurs take risks, markets work, governments deliver public services efficiently, and people have the confidence to invest in their own and their children’s futures.

Helping smaller enterprises create more jobs

Most investment comes from the private sector, but governments play an important role by providing a predictable environment in which people, ideas, and money work together productively and efficiently. This allows private firms operating in competitive markets to be the engines of growth and job creation, providing opportunities to escape poverty. A good investment climate requires sound macroeconomic management and trade and

investment policies that foster openness, productivity, and growth. And businesses require a well-functioning legal and regulator y system—with protection of proper ty rights, ready access to credit, and efficient judicial, taxation, and customs systems. Reliable and affordable infrastructure—power, communications, transpor t, water—lowers costs and helps attract new investment, as does a well-educated workforce.

Foreign direct investment goes to countries with macro stability . . .

. . . less goes to countries with poor macro performance

2001 (%)

In a poor business climate, the informal sector and smaller firms may be the only place poor people can make a living Manufacturing jobs created or lost in Nigeria, 1990–2000 (%)

2001 (%) FDI net inflows (% of GDP) Inflation

Estonia

Small and medium-size enterprises, including small farms, can improve lives and reduce poverty by creating jobs in local communities—where poor people live and work. This is true in urban areas as well as rural areas, where smaller enterprises can help farmers market their produce and earn income from off-farm employment. This is an important way out of poverty for poor people who have few opportunities in large firms or the public sector. Yet small and medium-size enterprises often lack the resources and clout to circumvent official corruption, unreliable power supplies, and burdensome taxes and regulations. To improve their business prospects, these enterprises need a better business environment, increased technical assistance and capacity building, stronger business associations, closer links with larger firms, and easier access to capital. Microcredit is filling the financing needs of many micro, small, and medium-size enterprises. Such firms normally have to pay high interest rates for borrowing or they have to rely on family, friends, and other informal sources of funds. Around the world, microcredit is developing into a thriving, self-sustaining industr y. In Cambodia the Association of Cambodian Local Economic Development Associations has some 84,000 borrowers and has lent $24 million to micro and small businesses.

180 Sri Lanka

150

GDP growth

120 90

Trinidad & Tobago

Haiti 60 30

Morocco

Zimbabwe

0

70.1

–30 0

40

5


10

15

20

–10 –5

0

5

10

15

20

Very small firms

Small firms

Medium-size firms

Large firms

Very large firms

(20–49 employees)

(50–99 employees)

(100–199 employees)

(200–499 employees)

(500+ employees)

19

Time to start a new business, 2002 Days 100 or more 70–99 50–69 20–49 Less than 20 No data

Countries with many start-up procedures . . .

. . . tend to have high registration costs . . .

Number of start-up procedures

. . . expensive contract enforcement . . .

Costs to register a business (% of GNI per capita)

. . . and a long time to resolve insolvency

Costs to enforce a contract (% of GNI per capita)

Time to resolve insolvency (days)

Belarus

Belarus

Belarus

Belarus

Madagascar

Madagascar

Madagascar

Madagascar

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Egypt, Arab Rep.

India

India

India

India

Latvia

Latvia

Latvia

Latvia

Canada

Canada

Canada

Canada

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

20

40

60

80

0

50

100

150

200

250

To start a new business in Mozambique, an entrepreneur must complete 16 procedures taking an average of 214 business days. In Italy such procedures take an average of 62 business days. But Canada requires only 2 start-up procedures—and the process takes just 2 days.

0

2,500

5,000


41

Improving the performance of government Good governance—good management of a country’s economic and social resources in fostering development and fair treatment of its citizens—makes governments more effective, creates a better investment climate, improves public services, and enables poor people to participate in a country’s economic growth. Effective development requires that states complement markets, not substitute for them. States should focus on providing a good business environment—in which contracts are enforced, markets can function, basic infrastructure is provided, and people (especially poor people) are empowered to participate. When a country’s key policies and institutions are weak, it undermines government efforts

Governance, participation, and development assistance Development assistance works best in countries with sound or improving policies and institutions. Good governance is important for economic growth and for service delivery. But it has to be complemented by a strong civil society with local organizations capable of holding government institutions accountable for high-quality service delivery. Institutional and governance reforms should reflect country-specific issues and priorities, including the role of culture—the shared values, beliefs, knowledge, skills, and practices of social groups. The most effective strategy for reform may require focusing on a broad agenda of political accountability and transparency and an independent media. Recognizing and giving voice to participatory community development and diverse cultures can make for a more dynamic society that contributes to economic growth, looks toward a more prosperous future, and preserves its cultural heritage. In Monterrey, Mexico, in March 2002 developing countries committed to improving their governance, institutions, and policies, and rich countries committed to increasing aid, opening trade, and supporting capacity building. Bilateral and multilateral donors are trying to direct assistance to countries that govern justly, promote economic freedom, and invest in people. The countries of Sub-Saharan Africa—recognizing that they must take responsibility for improving their governance, institutions, and policies—recently established the New Partnership for Africa’s Development.

to mobilize revenue, deliver services, and improve governance. Policies and institutions and the services they deliver—healthcare, education, law enforcement, judicial functions, roads, and postal, telephone, and power services—affect how people live and how efficiently businesses operate. Small businesses and farmers are especially vulnerable to weak governance.

Government effectiveness lags in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Budgetary potholes—much needed, little provided

Proportion of countries in the world that score below selected region on quality of public service delivery (%). A higher score shows a better governance outcome.

Percentage of budget for road maintenance

Estimated need

Actual

20

60 50

15 40 10

30 20

5 10 0

0 South Asia

42


Sub-Saharan Africa


Eastern Europe


East Asia

Albania

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia

Yugoslavia, Fed. Rep.

Macedonia, FYR

Bulgaria

Romania

20

Firms rating government services as bad, 1999–2000 60.0% or more 45.0–59.9% 30.0–44.9% 15.0–29.9% Less than 15.0% No data

Community-driven projects—good outcomes, but often unsustainable

Improvements in public services through information

Percent, fiscal year 1988–99

Surveyed firms rating services as bad (%)

In Uganda in the mid-1990s monthly education transfers to districts were published in newspapers and broadcast on the radio. But reports from local school districts showed that only 13 percent of the funding reached the schools. This information empowered local organizations to press for action—and by the late 1990s the share of funds received by local schools had risen to 80 percent.

Community-driven projects

Satisfactory outcomes All World Bank projects

Substantial institutional development impact

Likely sustainable

0

20

40

Firms rate the quality and efficiency of courts and customs—with very different results

60

80

100

Customs

Courts

100

80

60

40

20

In 1999–2000 more than 10,000 firms in 80 countries were asked to rate the quality and efficiency of such public services as customs, courts, roads, utilities, and healthcare. The map shows the percentage of firms in each country that rated government services as slightly bad, bad, or very bad.

0 Botswana

South Africa

Romania

Philippines

Bolivia


43

Building sound infrastructure Roads, rails, power, communications, and water and sanitation systems deliver services that promote better health and education. Better housing increases people’s earning capacity and assets. And good transportation and schooling help advance gender equality and the empowerment of women. Infrastructure investment needs are large. About 1.5 billion people will have to be provided affordable access to safe water and about 2 billion people will require basic sanitation during 2000–2015 to meet the Millennium Development Goals. This will require about $30 billion a year, twice current annual investments. The public

sector is—and will remain—the main player in the development of infrastructure and services. But new partnerships with the private sector are showing the way to more effective investment that enables businesses to grow, creates jobs, raises worker productivity, and improves health and education.

More access to personal computers in Latin America & the Caribbean

Private participation in infrastructure is concentrated in some sectors

Personal computers per 1,000 people

Sector distribution of infrastructure investment with private participation All developing countries, 1990–2001

Latin America & Caribbean Europe & Central Asia

Water and sewerage 5%

Natural gas 5%

Roads, water, sewerage, electricity, and health care are at the top of poor people’s list In developing countries, 2 of 10 people (1.1 billion) lack affordable access to safe water, and 5 of 10 (2.4 billion) lack adequate sanitation. About 90 children die every 15 minutes because of unsafe water and inadequate sanitation. Most die from diarrhea. In 1990 there were 4 billion episodes of diarrhea, and some 3 million deaths worldwide were attributed to diarrhea. Affordable access to safe water and sanitation not only improves health and saves lives, it can also affect a child’s chances of getting an education. In Bangladesh, where facilities with clean water and sanitation for girls were installed in schools, girls’ attendance increased by 15 percent. And in parts of Africa researchers found that a lack of piped water could reduce school attendance by nearly 20 percent—because the time-consuming chore of fetching water for the household usually falls on the family’s school-age children. Improving access to other infrastructure, such as electricity supply, roads, and information and communications services, and enhancing its quality also raise living standards. And better access and quality also contribute to the success of manufacturing and agricultural businesses by strengthening employment prospects, productivity, and income growth.

Water is reaching more people Population with access to an improved water source (%)

1990

2000

100

80

60

Middle East & North Africa Transport 18%

East Asia & Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa

Electricity 28%

Telecommunications 44%

40

20

South Asia 0 0 10 20

44


30

40

50

60

Sub--Saharan Africa

East Asia & Pacific

South Asia

Latin America Middle East & & Caribbean North Africa

Europe Central Asia

21

Fixed line and mobile phone subscribers, 2001 Per 1,000 people Less than 50 50–199 200–499

Czech Republic Subscribers per 1,000 people

500–999

Fixed line 375 Mobile 675

1,000 or more No data

Austria Subscribers per 1,000 people


Venezuela, RB Subscribers per 1,000 people

Malaysia Subscribers per 1,000 people


Water, sanitation, and electricity are good for health and education • In Bangladesh, installing facilities with clean water and sanitation for girls increased their school attendance by 15 percent. • Access to sewerage in some urban Nicaraguan communities reduced child mortality by 50 percent. • Electricity makes it possible to refrigerate vaccines and use electric lights for medical treatment and reading.


Electrification rates—high and low Population with access to electricity, 2000 (%)

Egypt, Arab Rep. Colombia Sudan Zambia Lesotho Uganda Afghanistan 0

20

40

60

80 100

Transport is important for school attendance and health care • In Morocco, girls’ attendance in primary school more than tripled after a paved road was built. • In Africa, 11 percent of people sur veyed say that the high cost of transpor t—or its absence—is the major barrier to health care. • In central Peru, a rural road project reduced travel time by half for more than 2.5 million people, providing access to health clinics, schools, and jobs.

Transport affects school attendance in Peru

The combined mobile and fixed telephone lines per 1,000 people is a measure of access to information and communications technology. In 2001 almost 100 countries had more mobile than fixed line subscribers, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Malaysia, and Venezuela.

Children attending school (%)

Travel time to school: 1 hour or less

1 to 2 hours

2 to 4 hours

4 hours or more

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


45

Conflict and development Of the more than 20 major armed conflicts in 2001, most were civil wars. Civil conflicts have devastating economic and social costs, reversing years of development, mainly in the world’s poorest countries. What are the economic and social costs and spillovers, and what can be done to reduce risk of conflict? The incidence of civil war—the proportion of countries that are in civil war at any given time— increased during the past 40 years. In 1964 the incidence of civil war was around 5 percent, with a peak in the early 1990s of about 17 percent. Civil wars last a long time—on average about 7

Conflict and civil war are inimical to development During 1990–2002 there were 56 major armed conflicts in 44 locations in the world. Most of today’s conflicts are internal wars, and civilians—including women and children—account for 90 percent of the casualties. And after a conflict ends, people continue to suffer and die of conditions brought on by the conflict, including landmines and the spread of infectious diseases. The effects of armed conflicts also spill over into neighboring countries. As refugees flee conflicts in their home country, and seek asylum in neighboring countries, they often are put into crowded conditions without adequate food, safe water, and sanitation and are at risk of contracting infectious diseases and spreading them to the host population. At the beginning of 2002, 20 million people were displaced as refugees in another country or were displaced within their own country. Links between poverty and conflict are strong. Of the world’s 20 poorest countries, 80 percent have suffered from a major conflict in the past 15 years. Economic instability, poverty, political and social exclusion, dependence on “lootable” natural resources, and weak institutions—all contribute to increased risk and persistence of conflict. How can these risks be reduced? If governments and the international community help to provide the environment for generating economic growth, strengthen democratic institutions, improve transparency and provide credible guarantees to minorities, the risk of conflict can be greatly reduced.

years—and the duration has increased, at least up to the early 1990s. Civil war is heavily concentrated in the poorest countries. Low-income countries, where about a billion people live, face the greatest risk of civil war—about 15 times that of high-income countries.

The risk of civil war in low-income countries increases as the share of primary commodity exports increases

The incidence of ongoing civil wars peaked in the early 1990s and has fallen since

%

Proportion of countries in civil war by year (%)

Primary commodity exports as a share of GDP

30

20

25 15 20 Ongoing wars 10

15 10

5 New wars

0

0 1950

46

5

1955


1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2001

Risk of civil war

22

Refugee population by country of origin, 2001 200,000 or more 30,000–199,999 3,000–29,999 500–2,999 Less than 500 No data

Colombia The conflict in Colombia has been going on for four decades. During the nineties, the annual number of violent deaths has been between 25,000 and 30,000. About 720,000 Colombians are internally displaced.

In January 2002, there were 19.8 million displaced persons

Angola The civil war in Angola, which ended in 2002, caused as many as one and a half million deaths. The extraction of diamonds has been an important source of funding for the UNITA armed opposition.

12 million of them were refugees . . .

Asylum-seekers, refugees, internally displaced persons, and others of concern to UNHCR (millions)

Asia

Burundi

Top Top 10 10 countries countries of of origin origin

Afghanistan

8.82

Europe

4.86

Africa

4.17

North America

1.09


0.77

Oceania 0.08 0

2

4

6

8

. . . seeking asylum in these countries . . .

. . . and 5 million were internally displaced persons

Countries of asylum

Top 10 countries

Pakistan, Iran

Afghanistan

554,000

Tanzania

Colombia

720,000

Iraq

530,100

Iran

Sri Lanka

683,300

Sudan

489,500

Uganda, Ethiopia, Congo, Dem. Rep., Kenya, Central African Rep.

Azerbaijan

573,000

Angola

470,600

Zambia, Congo, Dem. Rep., Namibia

Russian Federation

443,300

Somalia

439,900

Kenya, Yemen, Ethiopia, USA, U.K.

Bosnia-Herzegovina

438,300

Bosnia-Herzegovina

426,000

Yugoslavia, Fed. Rep., USA, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands

Georgia

264,200

Congo, Dem. Rep.

392,100

Tanzania, Congo Rep., Zambia, Rwanda, Burundi

Yugoslavia, Fed. Rep.

263,600

Vietnam

353,200

China, USA

Angola

202,000

Eritrea

333,100

Sudan

Liberia

196,100

Burundi

3,809,600

Since 1993, some 200,000 Burundians have perished in the widespread ethnic violence. Hundreds of thousands have been internally displaced or have become refugees in neighboring countries.

1,200,000

Refugees are people who are outside their country and cannot return owing to a well-founded fear of persecution because of race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. In 2001, there were more than 20 ongoing civil conflicts, including those in Angola, Burundi, and Colombia.

10 2003 World Bank Atlas

47

The integrating world In an integrated global economy, it is easier for people in different countries to do business with each other and for people and goods to move between countries. The links between economies have grown in the past 20 years as transportation costs and trade barriers have fallen and international financial markets have expanded. New technologies have altered longstanding patterns of production and employment. Increasingly, products are produced in multiple locations and distributed all over the world. Developing countries have become important suppliers of manufactured goods and services, spurring new opportunities for investment. Like trade and financial flows, the movement of labor is likely to

A global trade agenda focusing on development The rules of the global trading system are overseen by the World Trade Organization, the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Through a series of trade “rounds” the members of GATT negotiated substantial reductions in tariffs and other trade barriers, but the new trade round resulting from the World Trade Organization meeting in Doha, Qatar, in 2001, is the first to take development as its primar y goal. And China’s accession to the World Trade Organization should help keep market access issues at the forefront. Although par ticipants at Doha did not agree unanimously on all points, the declaration emerging from the negotiations gave developing countries reason to hope for a more welcoming trade environment and promised a focus on implementation. Several key agreements at Doha relate to market access: • To reduce all forms of export subsidies (with a view to phasing them out), and to substantially reduce trade-distorting domestic support. • To support growth in service trade for developing countries. • To reduce or, as appropriate, eliminate tariffs. This includes reducing or eliminating tariff peaks, high tariffs, and tariff escalation as well as nontariff barriers, particularly on nonagricultural products of export interest to developing countries.

increase in an open, integrated economy. Immigrants are often more productive in the host country, reducing labor costs there, while remittances sent to their home countries boost incomes there. Integration, by opening new markets, sharing knowledge, and increasing the efficiency of resources, can increase opportunities for people and reduce poverty.

Trade is an important avenue for integration

Ten countries received 79 percent of net private capital flows to the developing world in 2001

Exports and imports of goods (% of GDP) * Data for Europe and Central Asia are for 1994 and 2001.

1990

2001

Net private capital flows ($ billions)

50

70 60

40 50 30 40 30

20

20 10 10 0

0 Europe & Central Asia*

48


East Asia & Pacific

Sub-Saharan Africa



South Asia

China

Mexico

Brazil

Poland

South Africa

Chile

Czech Kazakhstan Hungary Colombia Republic

23

Merchandise trade flows, 2001 US$ billions 30–49 50–149

Europe and Central Asia Canada

150–249 250 or more

European Union United States Japan

Middle East and North Africa East Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and Caribbean

Money sent home far exceeds aid in the 10 countries with the highest worker remittances in 2001

Country India

Net worker remittances ($ millions) 9,001

Immigrants play an important role in OECD economies Foreign population in selected OECD countries, 2000 (thousands)

Net aid ($ millions) 1,705

% of total

United States

28,400

Germany

7,297

10 9

Mexico

8,896

75

Australia

Morocco

3,234

517

United Kingdom

Egypt, Arab Rep.

2,877

1,255

Japan

Turkey

2,786

167

Italy

1,388

2

Bangladesh

2,092

1,024

Switzerland

1,384

19

El Salvador

1,911

234

Dominican Republic

1,808

105

Jordan Colombia

1,640 1,564

4,517

24

2,342

4

1,686

1

Spain

896

2

Belgium

862

8

Austria

758

9

432 380

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Trade in goods is a major avenue of global integration. The arrows show the value of trade (exports plus imports) between major trading partners. Flows of less than $30 billion are not shown. Trade between developing countries and regions has been increasing, but more than half of world trade still occurs between highincome countries.

30,000


49

Reducing barriers to trade An open and equitable global trading system is essential for development. But after many rounds of multilateral trade negotiations, significant barriers remain. Trade barriers impose costs on both high-income countries and the developing world. Developing countries face tariffs that are on average more than twice those faced by high-income countries. They also confront nontariff barriers, such as quotas, rules of origin, and antidumping actions. A reduction in trade barriers often results in significant growth oppor tunities for low- and middle-income countries. Most of these

Barriers to developing country agricultural exports Agricultural products are the most important exports of many developing countries, but these exports face numerous obstacles in high-income countries. Some of the highest tariffs imposed in both developing and high-income countries are on agricultural products. Developing country agricultural exports face average tariffs of 16 percent in rich countries and 20 percent in developing countries. “Peak” tariffs on some sensitive commodities exceed 100 percent. In addition to tariff and nontariff barriers, the United States, the European Union, and Japan provide large subsidies to domestic agricultural producers, further distorting the market. Agricultural subsidies by OECD members exceeded $300 billion in 2001—six times their contributions of foreign aid. Consider this: the average subsidy per cow is about $2.50 a day in Europe and nearly $7 a day in Japan. Then recall that three-quarters of the people in Sub-Saharan Africa live on less than $2 a day. Improving market access in agriculture will produce real income gains for both high-income and developing countries.

countries’ expor ts are in laborintensive goods, so encouraging expor t-led growth can help reduce pover ty. Not only will increased expor t earnings help raise national income levels, but growth in labor-intensive sectors will lead to more employment oppor tunities for poor people. Safety nets help ensure that liberalization will be pro-poor.

Further trade liberalization could reduce poverty substantially Reduction in number of poor by 2015 relative to baseline (millions)

Some high-income countries give large subsidies to agricultural producers $1 a day

$2 a day

120

Total support to agriculture as share of GDP, 1999 (%)

2.5

100

2.0

80 1.5 60 1.0 40

0.5

20

0

0.0 Sub-Saharan Africa

50


East Asia & Pacific

South Asia

Eastern Europe Middle East & Latin America & & Central Asia North Africa the Caribbean

Switzerland European Union

Japan

Norway

United States

Canada

Australia

New Zealand

Weighted mean tariffs, pre-1998 20.0% or more 15.0–19.9% 10.0–14.9% 5.0–9.9% Less than 5.0% No data

Weighted mean tariffs, 1998–2001 20.0% or more 15.0–19.9% 10.0–14.9% 5.0–9.9% Less than 5.0% No data


24

Weighted mean tariffs are weighted by the value of the country’s trade with its trading partners. Some countries set fairly uniform tariff rates across all imports. Others are more selective, setting high tariffs to protect favored domestic industries. For the time covered in this map (latest year available for 1988–97) the lowered trade barriers of the Uruguay Round had not yet taken effect.

In recent years— 1998–2001—tariffs have dropped in most countries, reflecting the international commitment to freer trade. Nontariff barriers such as quotas, licensing, and prohibitions have also been decreasing, but the use of antidumping measures to restrict imports has increased.

51

Aid for development Development is a partnership between developing and high-income countries. Donor countries help recipient countries build capacity to foster change. And recipient countries invest in their people and create an environment that sustains growth. Aid is one way for rich countries to transfer resources to developing countries. But aid to poorest countries has fallen from $58 billion in 1990 to $52 billion in 2001 and now represents less than a quarter of 1 percent of donor GNI. Aid is most effective in reducing poverty when it goes to poor countries with good policies and sound governance. To help the poorest countries reach the Millennium Development Goals, official development assistance Much external financing comes from private sources

More aid to developing countries is coming as grants

Total net flows to countries receiving development assistance, 2001 ($ billions) Bilateral official development assistance Multilateral official development assistance Other official flows

will need to double from its current level, and countries themselves will have to supply several times more than that. More than aid is needed. Rich countries can increase debt relief, market access, and the volume and predictability of aid. Developing countries can strengthen governance, improve the climate for private investment, and increase human capital through more effective delivery of basic and social services.

Bilateral official development assistance ($ billions) 40 35

35

30

Grants

16

25 20

–1

15 Net private flows

53

Net grants by nongovernmental organizations

5

7

0 –10 0 10

52

10


20

30

40

50

60

Loans

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

The Monterrey Consensus In March 2002 leaders from developing and high-income countries came together in Monterrey, Mexico, to discuss new strategies for attacking global poverty. Rich countries made new commitments that would increase official development assistance in real terms by about $16 billion a year by 2006: • Members of the European Union: to strive to raise development assistance to at least 0.33 percent of gross national income (GNI) by 2006, with the EU average rising to 0.4 percent or more of GNI. • United States: to achieve a $5 billion increase (almost 50 percent) over current levels by 2006. • Canada: to double its aid by 2010. • Japan: to reduce its development assistance budget in fiscal 2002 and 2003 as part of necessary fiscal consolidation. • Norway: to increase its development assistance to 1 percent of GNI by 2005. • Switzerland: to increase its development assistance to 0.4 percent of GNI by 2010. • Australia: to increase its development assistance by 3 percent in real terms in 2002–03.

Debt relief for poor countries The Debt Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) provides debt relief to the world’s poorest and most heavily indebted countries. By March 2003, 26 countries had qualified for debt relief amounting to about $42 billion. The savings in debt service have allowed average annual social spending in these countries to rise from 6 percent of GDP to 8 percent.

The total debt burden of heavily indebted poor countries has declined Total external debt of HIPCs ($ billions)

250

200

150

100

50

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

25

Aid per capita, 2001 $50 or more $20–49 $5–19 Less than $5 Net aid donor No data

Only five countries provide as much as 0.7 percent of GNI for official development assistance—and the shares of most major aid donors have declined Net official development assistance (% of donor country GNI)

1990

2001

1.2

0.9

0.6

St at es

ly Ita

ce ee

Un

ite

d

Gr

da na

n Ca

pa Ja

al ug rt Po

Ze w Ne

Au

st

al

ra l

an

d

ia

y an rm Ge

n ai

st ria Au

ng ite

d

Ki

Fr Un

Sp

m do

ce an

d an nl Fi

nd la Ire

nd er la

m iu lg Be

Sw itz

en

s er la th Ne

Sw ed

nd

g ur bo Lu xe m

No r

De n

m

ar k

0.0

wa y

0.3

In most countries aid plays a relatively small role. But for the very poorest countries it can be very important. In 2001 43 developing countries received more than $50 per capita. Additional aid—together with good policies—could help countries lift millions of people out of poverty.


53

Key indicators of development Economy

Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas, The Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Brunei Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Channel Islands Chile China Hong Kong, China Macao, China Colombia Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Costa Rica Côte d’Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador

Total population

Surface area

Population density

millions 2001

thousand sq. km 2001

people per sq. km 2001

years 2001

27.2 c 3.2 30.8 0.1 0.1 13.5 0.1 37.5 3.8 0.1 19.4 8.1 8.1 0.3 0.7 133.3 0.3 10.0 10.3 0.2 6.4 0.1 0.8 8.5 4.1 1.7 172.4 0.3 8.0 11.6 6.9 12.3 15.2 31.1 0.4 0.0 3.8 7.9 0.1 15.4 1,271.8 6.7 0.4 43.0 0.6 52.4 3.1 3.9 16.4 4.4 11.2 0.8 10.2 5.4 0.6 0.1 8.5 12.9

652.1 28.8 2,381.7 0.2 0.5 1,246.7 0.4 2,780.4 29.8 0.2 7,741.2 83.9 86.6 13.9 0.7 144.0 0.4 207.6 31.0 23.0 112.6 0.1 47.0 1,098.6 51.1 581.7 8,547.4 5.8 110.9 274.0 27.8 181.0 475.4 9,970.6 4.0 0.3 623.0 1,284.0 0.2 756.6 9,598.1 i .. 0.4 1,138.9 2.2 2,344.9 342.0 51.1 322.5 56.5 110.9 9.3 78.9 43.1 23.2 0.8 48.7 283.6

42 115 13 350 140 11 156 14 135 474 3 98 94 31 917 1,024 624 48 313 11 58 1,200 18 8 80 3 20 65 73 42 270 69 33 3 111 135 6 6 768 21 136 .. .. 41 256 23 9 76 52 78 102 82 132 126 28 96 176 47

43 74 71 .. .. 47 .. 74 74 .. 79 78 65 70 73 62 75 68 78 74 53 .. 63 63 74 39 68 76 72 44 42 54 49 79 69 .. 43 48 79 76 70 80 79 72 61 45 51 78 46 74 77 78 75 77 45 76 67 70

54


Life expectancy at birth

Gross national income

$ billions 2001 b

.. 4.2 51.0 .. .. 6.7 0.6 260.3 2.2 .. 385.9 194.7 5.3 4.5 7.2 48.6 2.6 12.9 245.3 0.7 2.4 .. 0.5 8.1 5.0 5.3 528.9 .. 13.2 2.5 0.7 3.3 8.7 681.6 0.6 .. 1.0 1.6 .. 70.6 1,131.2 170.3 6.3 j 81.6 0.2 4.2 2.0 15.7 10.3 19.9 .. 9.4 54.3 164.0 0.6 0.2 19.0 14.0

per capita $ 2001 b

.. d 1,340 1,650 .. f .. g 500 9,150 6,940 570 .. g 19,900 23,940 650 14,860 11,130 360 9,750 h 1,290 23,850 2,940 380 .. g 640 950 1,240 3,100 3,070 .. g 1,650 220 100 270 580 21,930 1,340 .. g 260 200 .. g 4,590 890 25,330 14,380 j 1,890 380 80 640 4,060 630 4,550 .. k 12,320 5,310 30,600 890 3,200 2,230 1,080

PPP gross national income a

Youth unemployment

per capita $ 2001

% ages 15–24 2000

.. 3,810 5,910 e .. .. 1,690 e 9,550 10,980 2,730 .. 24,630 26,380 2,890 15,680 15,390 1,600 15,110 7,630 26,150 5,150 970 .. .. 2,240 6,250 7,410 7,070 .. 6,740 1,120 e 680 1,790 1,580 26,530 e 5,540 e .. 1,300 e 1,060 .. 8,840 3,950 25,560 21,630 6,790 1,890 630 680 9,260 1,400 8,930 .. 21,110 e 14,320 28,490 2,420 4,920 6,650 2,960

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 12.3 5.9 .. 15.8 .. .. 21.8 .. 22.6 22.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. 18.3 .. 34.2 .. .. .. .. 14.0 .. .. .. .. .. 21.2 3.1 10.3 9.9 36.3 .. .. .. 11.7 .. 29.8 .. .. 17.0 10.0 .. .. .. 23.5

Economy

Egypt, Arab Rep. El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Faeroe Islands Fiji Finland France French Polynesia Gabon Gambia, The Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Greenland Grenada Guam Guatemala Guinea-Bissau Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep. Iraq Ireland Isle of Man Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Korea, Dem. Rep. Korea, Rep. Kuwait Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia, FYR Madagascar Malawi

Total population

Surface area

Population density

millions 2001



65.2 6.4 0.5 4.2 1.4 65.8 0.1 0.8 5.2 59.2 0.2 1.3 1.3 5.3 82.3 19.7 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 11.7 1.2 7.6 0.8 8.1 6.6 10.2 0.3 1,032.4 209.0 64.5 23.8 3.8 0.1 6.4 57.9 2.6 127.0 5.0 14.9 30.7 0.1 22.4 47.3 2.0 5.0 5.4 2.4 4.4 2.1 3.2 5.4 0.0 3.5 0.4 2.0 16.0 10.5

1,001.5 21.0 28.1 117.6 45.1 1,104.3 1.4 18.3 338.2 551.5 4.0 267.7 11.3 69.7 357.0 238.5 132.0 341.7 0.3 0.6 108.9 36.1 245.9 215.0 27.8 112.1 93.0 103.0 3,287.3 1,904.6 1,648.2 438.3 70.3 0.6 21.1 301.3 11.0 377.8 89.2 2,724.9 580.4 0.7 120.5 99.3 17.8 199.9 236.8 64.6 10.4 30.4 111.4 1,759.5 0.2 65.2 2.6 25.7 587.0 118.5

65 309 17 42 32 66 36 45 17 108 65 5 134 76 231 87 82 0 295 285 108 44 31 4 295 59 110 3 347 115 39 54 56 133 309 197 239 349 57 6 54 127 186 480 115 26 23 38 429 68 33 3 188 54 170 80 27 112


years 2001

68 70 51 51 71 42 .. 69 78 79 73 53 53 73 78 56 78 .. 73 78 65 45 46 63 52 66 72 80 63 66 69 62 77 .. 79 79 76 81 72 63 46 62 61 74 77 66 54 70 71 43 47 72 .. 73 77 73 55 38


$ billions 2001 b

99.6 13.0 0.3 0.7 5.3 6.7 .. 1.8 123.4 1,380.7 4.1 4.0 0.4 3.1 1,939.6 5.7 121.0 .. 0.4 .. 19.6 0.2 3.1 0.6 3.9 5.9 49.2 8.2 477.4 144.7 108.7 .. 87.7 .. 106.6 1,123.8 7.3 4,523.3 8.8 20.1 10.7 0.1 .. 447.6 37.4 1.4 1.6 7.6 17.6 1.1 0.5 .. .. 11.7 17.6 3.5 4.2 1.7

per capita $ 2001 b

1,530 2,040 700 160 3,870 100 .. g 2,150 23,780 22,730 i 17,290 3,160 320 590 23,560 290 11,430 .. g 3,610 .. g 1,680 160 410 840 480 900 4,830 28,910 460 690 1,680 .. k 22,850 .. f 16,750 19,390 2,800 35,610 1,750 1,350 350 830 .. d 9,460 18,270 280 300 3,230 4,010 530 140 .. f .. g 3,350 39,840 1,690 260 160


Youth unemployment

per capita $ 2001

% ages 15–24 2000

3,560 5,160 .. 1,030 9,650 800 .. 4,920 24,030 24,080 28,020 5,190 2,010 e 2,580 25,240 2,170 e 17,520 .. 6,290 .. 4,380 890 1,900 4,280 e 1,870 2,760 11,990 28,850 2,820 2,830 5,940 .. 27,170 .. 19,630 24,530 3,490 25,550 3,880 6,150 970 .. .. 15,060 21,530 2,630 1,540 e 7,760 4,400 2,980 e .. .. .. 8,350 48,560 6,040 820 560

.. .. .. .. 16.1 .. .. .. 21.6 26.6 .. .. .. .. 7.7 .. 29.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 6.3 12.4 4.4 .. .. .. .. 8.5 .. 17.2 32.9 34.0 9.2 .. .. .. .. .. 14.2 .. .. .. 23.1 .. .. .. .. .. 24.9 6.8 .. .. ..

Total population

Surface area

Population density

Economy

millions 2001



Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mexico Micronesia, Fed. Sts. Moldova Monaco Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nepal Netherlands Netherlands Antilles New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Northern Mariana Islands Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Samoa San Marino São Tomé and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Slovak Republic Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka St. Kitts and Nevis

23.8 0.3 11.1 0.4 0.1 2.7 1.2 0.1 99.4 0.1 4.3 0.0 2.4 29.2 18.1 48.3 1.8 23.6 16.0 0.2 0.2 3.8 5.2 11.2 129.9 0.1 4.5 2.5 141.5 0.0 2.9 5.3 5.6 26.3 78.3 38.6 10.0 3.8 0.6 22.4 144.8 8.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 21.4 9.8 0.1 5.1 4.1 5.4 2.0 0.4 9.1 43.2 41.1 18.7 0.0

329.8 0.3 1,240.2 0.3 0.2 1,025.5 2.0 0.4 1,958.2 0.7 33.9 0.0 1,566.5 446.6 801.6 676.6 824.3 147.2 41.5 0.8 18.6 270.5 130.0 1,267.0 923.8 0.5 323.9 309.5 796.1 0.5 75.5 462.8 406.8 1,285.2 300.0 323.3 92.0 9.0 11.0 238.4 17,075.4 26.3 2.8 0.1 1.0 2,149.7 196.7 0.5 71.7 0.6 49.0 20.3 28.9 637.7 1,221.0 506.0 65.6 0.4

72 934 9 1,234 263 3 591 388 52 172 130 15,789 2 65 23 73 2 165 473 275 12 14 43 9 143 160 15 8 183 42 39 12 14 21 263 127 110 433 54 97 9 352 61 300 157 10 51 183 72 6,772 112 99 15 14 35 82 290 125


years 2001

73 69 41 78 65 51 72 .. 73 68 67 .. 65 68 42 57 44 59 78 .. 73 78 69 46 46 .. 79 74 63 .. 75 57 71 70 70 74 76 76 75 70 66 40 69 .. 65 73 52 73 37 78 73 76 69 47 47 78 73 71


$ billions 2001 b

79.3 0.6 2.5 3.6 0.1 1.0 4.6 .. 550.2 0.3 1.5 .. 1.0 34.7 3.8 .. 3.5 5.8 390.3 .. 3.2 51.0 .. 2.0 37.1 .. 160.8 14.9 60.0 0.1 9.5 3.0 7.6 52.2 80.8 163.6 109.3 42.1 .. 38.6 253.4 1.9 0.3 .. 0.0 181.1 4.7 0.5 0.7 88.8 20.3 19.4 0.3 .. 121.9 588.0 16.4 0.3

per capita $ 2001 b

3,330 2,000 230 9,210 2,190 360 3,830 .. f 5,530 2,150 400 .. g 400 1,190 210 .. d 1,960 250 24,330 .. g 15,060 13,250 .. d 180 290 .. g 35,630 6,180 420 6,780 3,260 580 1,350 1,980 1,030 4,230 10,900 10,950 h .. g 1,720 1,750 220 1,490 .. g 280 8,460 490 6,530 140 21,500 3,760 9,760 590 .. d 2,820 14,300 880 6,630


Youth unemployment

per capita $ 2001

% ages 15–24 2000

7,910 .. 770 13,140 .. 1,940 9,860 .. 8,240 .. 2,300 .. 1,710 3,500 1,050 e .. 7,410 e 1,360 27,390 .. 25,200 18,250 .. 880 e 790 .. 29,340 10,720 1,860 .. 5,440 e 2,450 e 5,180 e 4,470 4,070 9,370 17,710 18,090 .. 5,780 6,880 1,240 6,130 .. .. 13,290 1,480 .. 460 22,850 11,780 17,060 1,910 e .. 10,910 e 19,860 3,260 10,190

.. .. .. .. .. 44.9 .. .. 3.4 .. .. .. .. 35.0 .. .. .. .. 7.4 35.5 .. 13.2 .. .. .. .. 10.2 .. .. .. 28.7 .. .. .. 21.2 30.0 8.7 20.3 .. 19.5 26.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 7.1 32.2 18.2 .. .. 55.8 28.5 28.2 ..

Economy

Total population

Surface area

Population density

millions 2001



St. Lucia 0.2 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 0.1 Sudan 31.7 Suriname 0.4 Swaziland 1.1 Sweden 8.9 Switzerland 7.2 Syrian Arab Republic 16.6 Tajikistan 6.2 Tanzania 34.4 Thailand 61.2 Timor-Leste 0.8 Togo 4.7 Tonga 0.1 Trinidad and Tobago 1.3 Tunisia 9.7 Turkey 66.2 Turkmenistan 5.4 Uganda 22.8 Ukraine 49.1 United Arab Emirates 3.0 United Kingdom 58.8 United States 285.3 Uruguay 3.4 Uzbekistan 25.1 Vanuatu 0.2 Venezuela, RB 24.6 Vietnam 79.5 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0.1 West Bank and Gaza 3.1 Yemen, Rep. 18.0 Yugoslavia, Fed. Rep. 10.7 Zambia 10.3 Zimbabwe 12.8 World Low income Middle income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low & middle income East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Carib. Middle East & N. Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa High income Europe EMU

0.6 0.4 2,505.8 163.3 17.4 450.0 41.3 185.2 143.1 945.1 513.1 14.9 56.8 0.8 5.1 163.6 774.8 488.1 241.0 603.7 83.6 242.9 9,629.1 176.2 447.4 12.2 912.1 331.7 0.3 .. 528.0 102.0 752.6 390.8

6,130.1 s 133,781.2 s 2,505.9 34,245.8 2,667.2 67,121.8 2,163.5 45,709.0 503.6 21,412.9 5,172.3 101,352.8 1,822.5 16,300.7 474.6 24,066.4 523.6 20,459.5 300.6 11,134.9 1,377.8 5,139.5 673.9 24,266.7 957.0 32,413.6 306.7 2,568.9


years 2001

1



Youth unemployment

% ages 15–24 2000

$ billions 2001 b

per capita $ 2001 b

per capita $ 2001

257 297 13 3 62 22 183 90 44 39 120 51 86 140 255 62 86 12 116 85 36 244 31 19 61 17 28 244 322 .. 34 108 14 33

72 73 58 70 45 80 80 70 67 44 69 .. 49 71 72 72 70 65 43 68 75 77 78 74 67 68 74 69 78 72 57 73 37 39

0.6 0.3 10.7 0.8 1.4 225.9 277.2 17.3 1.1 9.4 m 118.5 0.4 1.3 0.2 7.8 20.0 167.3 5.1 5.9 35.2 .. 1,476.8 9,780.8 19.2 13.8 0.2 117.2 32.8 .. 4.2 8.2 9.9 3.3 6.2

3,950 2,740 340 1,810 1,300 25,400 38,330 1,040 180 270 m 1,940 520 270 1,530 5,960 2,070 2,530 950 260 720 .. g 25,120 34,280 5,710 550 1,050 4,760 410 .. g 1,350 450 930 320 480

4,960 4,980 1,750 .. 4,430 23,800 30,970 3,160 1,140 520 6,230 .. 1,620 .. 8,620 6,090 5,830 4,240 1,460 e 4,270 .. 24,340 34,280 8,250 2,410 3,110 5,590 2,070 .. .. 730 .. 750 2,220

47 w 76 40 48 24 52 115 20 26 27 288 29 31 121

67 w 59 70 69 72 64 69 69 71 68 63 46 78 78

31,400 t 1,069 4,957 2,672 2,291 6,025 1,640 935 1,876 669 618 311 25,372 6,339

5,120 w 430 1,860 1,230 4,550 1,160 900 1,970 3,580 2,220 450 460 26,510 20,670

7,370 w 2,190 5,390 4,700 8,500 3,830 3,790 6,320 6,900 5,430 2,570 1,750 26,650 23,800

44.0 .. .. 23.1 .. 14.2 5.6 .. .. .. 7.4 .. .. .. 25.4 .. 14.6 .. .. 22.5 .. 12.3 9.9 24.3 .. .. 25.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

a. PPP is purchasing power parity; see Definitions. b. Calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. c. Estimate does not account for recent refugee flows. d. Estimated to be low income ($745 or less). e. The estimate is based on regression; others are extrapolated from the latest International Comparison Programme benchmark estimates. f. Estimated to be upper-middle-income ($2,976–$9,205). g. Estimated to be high income ($9,206 or more). h. Included in the aggregates for upper-middle-income economies on the basis of earlier data. i. Includes Taiwan, China; Macao, China; and Hong Kong, China. j. Refers to GDP or GDP per capita. k. Estimated to be lower middle income ($746–2,975). l. GNI and GNI per capita estimates include the Frehch overseas departments of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Réunion. m. Data refers to mainland Tanzania only.


55

Poverty and mortality International poverty line

Economy

Afghanistan Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas, The Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Brunei Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Channel Islands Chile China Hong Kong, China Macao, China Colombia Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Costa Rica Côte d’Ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador

Survey year

1995

1998

2001

2000 2000

1999 1993 1998 2001 1994 1998 1996

1993

1998 2000

1998

1998 1995 2000

1996

1998 1995

56

Population Poverty below gap at $1 a day $1 a day % %

.. ..

World Bank Atlas 2003 (World Bank Atlas)

World Bank Atlas (Atlas of Global Development)

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