Essentials of Political Research

Essentials of Political Science jan~esA&.Thurber, A&rnericanUniversity, Ecfitor

The Essentials of Pcllitical Science Series will present faculty and students with co~lcisctexts designcrf as prirr~ersfor a given college course, Many will be 200 pages or shorter. Each will cover core concepts central to mastering the topic under scutly, I>rawing on their reaching as well as research cxgericnccs, the authors present narrative and analytical treatments designecf to fit well within the conf?-ines of a crt~wtlecJcourse syl'iabrts.

Essentials c?fAmericun Gover12ment, I>avid AMcKay

Essentia

RESEARCH

A Menlber of the Perseus Books Group

All rights reserved. fjrinted in the United Scates of America. No part of rhis publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, recording, or any information electronic or mechanical, inctudirzg phott~copy? sttlrage and retrieval systern, without permission in writi~lgfrom the putllisber, Copyri&t 82000 by Westview 13ress,A Member of the 13erseusBooks Group 13ublished in 2000 in the United Stares of Ainerira by Wesrview Press, 5SUIl Central Avenue, Boulder, Colorado 80301-2877, and in the United Kingdom by Wesrview Press, 12 Hid's Copse Road, Cumnor Hill, Clxford OX2 9JJ Find us on the WrIdWide Web at ww.westviewprerssorn L,lkrary of C:ongress Caratoging-in-Publicatic~nData Monroe, Alan D. Essentials of politicaI research / AIan 19. Monroe. p. em - (Essentials of political science) Includes biograpl~icalreferences and index. ISBN 0-8 133-6866-V(pbk.1 1. Political science-Research. 2. fjolirical science-Methodology 11. Series.

I. Tide.

The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials 239.48-1984.

For Paula, Ill'elissa, and Mollie

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Contents

List of Tables izzd Figures Preface

1

The Scienrific Study of Research Questiians What Does It Mean to Be Scientific?, 2 Distinguishing Empirical and Normative Questioils, 3 Reformulating Normative Questions as Empiricill, 6 Research Qt~estions,8 The Scietltific Research Process, 10 Exercises, 12 Suggested Answers to Exercises, 23

2

Building Blocks of the Research Process Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational Definitions: An Overview, 2 '7 Types of I-Iypotheses, 19 Theoretical Role, 20 Units of Analysis, 22 Operational Definitions, 25 Exercises, 28 Suggested Answers to Exercises, 29

3

Research Design

The Concept of Causality, 31 Types af Research Design, 32. Exercises, 43 Suggested Answers to Exercises, 44

1

4

Published Data Sources The Xnternet as Data Source, 48 The X~nyortanceof Units of Analysis, 48 Strategies for Finding Data Sources, SO Some Genera1 Data Sources, S2 Demographic Da ta, 52 Political and Governmental Data for Natioils, 54 Data 0x1 U,S, Government and Po!itics, S4 Survey Data, 5'7 Content Analysis, SS Steps in Content Analysis, S9 lssues in Content Analysis, 44 Exercises, 64 Suggested Answers to Exercises, 65

5

Survey Research

Sampling, 67 Interviewing, 71 Writing Survey Items, 73 Exercises, 78 Suggested Answers to Exercises, 79

Levels of Measurement, 83 Uilivariate Statistics, 90 The Concept of Relationship, 92 Multivatriate Statistics, 98 Exercises, 180 Suggested Answers to Exescises, 102 7

Graphic Display af Data Graphics far Univariate Distributions, 106 Graphics for Muftivariate Relationships, l U7 How Not to Lie with Grapl-rics, 1 OS) The Need far Standardization, 112 Principles for Good Graphics, 1 13 Exercises, 11S Suggested Answers to Exercise A, 116

8

Nominal and Ordinal Statistics

Correlations for No~ninalVariables, 1 1 7 Correlations for Ordinal Variables, 2 20 Chi-Square; A Significance Test, 124 Additional Correlations for Nominal Variables, 130 Interpreting Contingency Tables Using Statistics, 1 33 Exercises, 135 Suggested Answers to Exescises, 136

9

Interval Statistics

The Regression Line, 1 4 l Pearson" r, I44 Nonlinear Relationships, 147 Relationships Between Interval and Nominal Variables, "11 Exercises, 15X Suggested Answers to Exercises, 153

10

MuXtivariate Statistics

Coxztrolling with Corztingeliicy Tables, 1 59 What Can Happen When You Control, 160 Controlling with Ilntervali Variables: Partial Correiations, 167 The Multiple Correlation, 173 Significance Test for R" 176 Beta WeigI~ts,177 Causal Interpretation, 178 Exercises, 186 Suggested Answers to Exescises, 190

References Inda

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es and Figures

Tabke.c 5.1 C;,

faxnple size and accuracy

1 Common bivsriate statistics

8.1 Probability of chi-square

10.1 ProbahiIity of F for partial and multiple correlations (0.5 proba lsitiry Ievelj

Figure5 1 ,1 Stages in the research process 2.1

Types of hypotheses and exaxnples

3.1 The classic experiment and an exiil~~ple 3.2 The quasi-experimental design and an example 3.3 The correlatioilal design and examples 5.1

faxnple size and accuracy

Popular vote for presidetit, 1996 Popular vote for president, 1996; Reported voter turnout, by ethnicity, 1996 Reported voter turnout, by ethnicity and education, 1996 7.5 Turnout of voting-age population in presidetitial elections, 1960-2 996

7.1 '7.2 7.3 7.11

7.68 A U S , per pupil speriding on education, 1990-1 996-correctly presented 7.6B U.S, per pupil spending cm education, 1990-1 996-incorrectly presented '7.7 Percentage af persons below poverty level, by ethnic status, 1996 7.8 Percentage of persolis below poverty level, 19%-1996 9.1

10, I 10.2

Example of a curvilinear relationship Causal rnadefs for three variables and tests An example of a causai model: 1972 presidential election

Preface

This book is intended as a comprehensive text for an introductory course in research methods for the sr>cial sciences* While written with students of Political Science in mind, it would be appropriate for similar disciplines. The inteiltioil in this book is to concentrate on the essentza:als, Given the broad scope of this book and its relatively brief length, I have attexnpted to concentrate on wllat seem to be the most ixnporrailt pr>intsnecessary to understanding the research process, At the same time, I have attempted to cover those points in sufticie~~t depth tl-rat the reader will be able to understand them. Therefore, it has been necessary to dispense with some technical details that a longer and more advanced text inight include, In wrltir~gthis book, X have drawn on over twenty-five years of teaching this subject matter to students of Political Science at Hinois State University, Drafts of the manuscript have been used as a text for several semesters, and my students have been helpful in correcting and refining the text, Any errors that =main, hr~wever, are my respmsibility

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The Scientific Studv of Research Questions

The reason we have accumulated knowledge of any subjectwhether pl-rysics, philosopl-ry, or political science-is that others have undertaken systematic investigations of particuiar topics and reported the results. Brtt why is it important for people who are nut professionals in those fields, particularly students, to know about research methi>dology-that is, how research is done? There are several answers to this question. First of all, students in any subject spend most of their class time and study tirne Learning about the results of past research, They can better understand what those findings mean if they have sorrte familiarity with the rnethods used to obtain thern. When they ga beyond textbooks and the classroom, they may have to ~udgewhether a piece of research is valid and whether its results ought to be believed, Second, students are often asked to do some research on their own-tl-re dreaded term paper. Although they may be able to get by with just su~rtmarizirtgwhat others have said, their papers will be more meaniwful and rewarding if they can actually conduct original investiga tions. In advanced courses-and certainly in graduate school-this is a x~ecessity. The need to understand and to be able to use research metl-rods continues beyond one" formal education. In all sorts of occupations, particularly those into which students from political, science and related disciplines go, employees are asked to rnake decisions about the value of research methods and findings, Consultants often use such methods, and those contracting for their services

should be able to evaluate their reports and findings, Similarly, people may have to conduct some sort of research project on their own, such as a swvey of potential clients. Understanding research methods is useful to all of us beyond tile workplace as well-ffjr example, as citizens wl-ro rnay be asked to vote on a tax referendum for a project recommended by a consultant" rreearch findings, Those who become active in politics, in local government, and in citizen organizations have a particttfar need to know something about research methods. This book is an introduction to the process of research, Jt deals only with scielztific research, the meaning of whick is discussed below. Altl-rough the book is designed for students of politics and therefore uses examples f%omthat field and gives more attention to the techrliqrres that political scientists use most frequently, the rnethods are comxnon to all social sciences, including sociology, econt-jmics, and psychology,

What Does ]It Mean to Be Scientific? There are many definitions of science. Perhaps the simplest one would be an attempt to i d e ~ z b band test erapirictlf gerzemlirntions. The first key part here is e~npirical.The tenn refers to the facts, or the real world: that which exists and can he known through the experiences of our senses-what cart be seen, touched, heard, and smelted. Much of wllat we might believe about things is not empirical, but rather nornative-that is, it reflects our judgments about what should be, A vitally import'dnt point to understand is that scientific methods cannot deal directly with nonempirical questions; the next section of this chapter explains how to identify them, The purpose of the methods and techniques of scie~lceis to test empirical statements. The testing must be ol2jective, tbat is, its results must not be dependent on any particular researcher's biases, Under this requirement-which is known by its technical term, intersuhective &s~"al;ilit~~-a finding cannot be accepted unless it can be replicated by others. For that reason, political science journals are increasingly requiring that authors of articles reporting empirical researcl1 make their data available for analysis by otl-rers. Moreover, it: is always important tbat scientific research reports carefully explain how data were coltected and analyzed.

The Sciefztific Stzady nf Research Qzaestions

3

The other key part of science is genemlzzation. Scientists seek to rnake statements about entire classes of ab~ects,not just individual cases, though the observation must he of individuals. The f ~ t that s Mr, Smith has only a grade school education and does not vote, whereas MS,Jmes has an advanced degree and always votes, are of little value by themselves, But when we collect that information on a large number of people from many places and across time, we can make a generalization that people with rnore education are more likely to vote than people with less education. The main purpose of science is to explain and predict, and scientific explanation requires generalizations. Gonsicter this simple logical syllogisxn:

1. Jf there is a high rate of economic growth, the i n c u ~ ~ b e n t president is usually reelected. (Generalization) 2 , There was a high rate of growth in 1996, (Observation) 3. Therefore, President Glintt~n,the incumbent, was reelected in 1996, This argurnerit is an explanation, thoug;h not the only one, for the election outcome. Note that the same reason could also be a basis for a prediclion of who would win the election, assuming that the econrlmic data were availahfe befcjrehand, The point is chat we must have generalizations to explain what has happened and to predict what will happen-and indeed, to understand hst always implied.

Distinguishing Empirical and Normative Quesrcions As noted earlier, science can answer only empirical questions or test empirical statc;ments. Therefore, it is important to be able to dis-

4

The Scientific Strcciy o f Research Qzcestions

tinguish empirical statements from other kinds, particularly when one is selecting a topic for scientific research. Empirical statements refer to what is or is not true and can be confirmed or disproved by sense experience. Whether they are simple descriptive statements ("Bill Clinton was reelected in 1996") or deal with complex relationships ("Controlling for presidential popularity, the greater the increase in average real income, the higher the proportion of votes received by the incumbent partyn), they are empirical if objective analysis of data from sensory observation could potentially prove o r disprove them. It does not matter whether they are posed as questions o r as statements or if they deal with the past, present, or future ("Will the Democrats win the next election?"). Normative questions are different. They deal with value judgments, that is, questions of what is good or bad, desirable or undesirable, beautiful o r ugly. Examples could include: "Was Bill Clinton a good president?" "Should taxes be increased?" "Is democracy the best form of government?" According to the philosophy of science, these normative questions are fundamentally different because they cannot be answered objectively. The answers to normative questions depend on the value judgments of the individual who answers them. Even if we find a normative proposition with which virtually everyone agrees ("Murder is bad"), it still is normative and not empirically testable. There is one other classification of questions and statements: analytical. Analytical statements refer to propositions whose validity is completely dependent on a set of assumptions or definitions rather than on empirical observation. Mathematics, including classical geometry with its proofs from postulates, is an example of purely analytical reasoning familiar to most people. Social scientists, particularly economists, sometimes deal with analytical questions as a way of investigating the way things would be if abstract theories were true. This activity can help to develop empirical propositions whose testing would shed some light on the applicability of theories. Political scientists have often looked at different methods of casting and counting votes t o see what the consequences would be under these arrangements. Box 1.l presents some examples and comments on the rationale for their classification. Exercise A at the end of the chapter presents some additional examples for readers to test their understanding.

BOX, 1.1 Empirical, Normaaive, and Analytical Sentences 1. ""Sxty-two percent of the Arnerican people think the president is doing a good job." ((Empirical)Although the evaiuaticrrt is obviously normative, the statement is an empirical one about what value judgments people make, and it can be empiricaliy tested by surveys,

2, "iMost African Americans vote Republican.'" Empirical j As it l-rappens, tllis is a false empirical statement, but it is still empirical and could tested by observatioil, 3. ""Abortion is a fundamental right guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution." "c~rmative) The Supreme Court has in fact taken this position, but it is still a normative judgment, 4. "is it more impc~rtantto adopt policies that will protect the environment or policies that will maximize economic growth?" "ormative) Although the word "ixnportant" is not necessarily normative, it is used as a value ~udgmenthere, as the questiolz really asks which policy goal is more desirable, S. "is it possible for a candidate to be elected president by the electoral college without havi~zgthe ggreatest n u r ~ b e rof popular votes?" "nalyticalf This question asks wl~etl-rerit is possible, so it can he answered simply by looking at the way the electoral system is set up and constructing a hypothetical scenario about how it could l-rappen. (It actually has l-rappened several times, hut that is not the point.) 6, "It is better to have nonpartisan elections for local government, because then there would be Iess cc~rruptic>il." jn'czrmative) Afthough the extent of corruption under a nonpartisan system rnight be an empirical question, the judgment that llonpartisailship is therefore better is normative,

7. "A democratic political system is one in which government tends to respond to the wishes of tlze citizens." "naiytical) This is simply a definition and dues not require any empirical observation to test it,

Reformulating Normative Questions as Empirical On learning that scientific study does not attempt to answer normative questions, one might well abject that this excludes many of the moft interesting and important topics, especiatly in politics. Indeed, this was the basis of much of the objection to the scientific orientation that became dominant in political science in the 1950s and 1960s. Afrer all, the political process is largely concerned with questions about wllat ought to be. In fact scientific research can deal with normative phenomena, but it can do so only indirectly as it seeks to answer empirical questitms. This can be done by taking the normative qtlestions that motivate our interest and reformulating:them as empirica! questions in one of two ways. The first m e t h d , which is the easiest, tlzough often not the most valuable, is to change the frarne of reference. This means moving from a normative judgment to a question about the nomative ~udgme~its some persol1 or persms make, We have already seen an example of this in Box 1.1. Althougfi the question of wlzetizer the president is doing a good job or not is a normative one, the question of whether the public thinks his performance is good is an empifical one, Such refor1nu1ations can be made with any set of individualsthe public, political scientists, or Left-handed civil servants, Although chm~girrgthe frame of reference may be quite useful ftrr svrne topics, such as presidential approval ratings, far others tlze results produced would be trivial. Tlze other method of refc~rmularing normative into empirical questions is to ask empirical questions about the assumptions bel-rind narrna tive ~udgxnents. Most normative judgments are based in part on beliefs about what is empirically true. For instance, many people believe that democracy is a betcer form of government than dictatorship because they believe that democracies are more stable, are less likely But are to start wars, and produce greater econoi~icdevelop~~ent,

The Sciefztific Stzady nf Research Qzaestions

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BOX 1.2 Keformda tiag Normative Sentences as Empirical by the Frame of Reference and En?pirical Assumptions Meehads I. Should term limits he adopted far Gongresd (Normative) Do mtlst political scientists favor term limits? (Frame)VCiould term limits increase the influence of interest groups on congressional decisionmaking? (Assumptions)

2, Wc3ttld it be a gos~didea to legalize drugs? (Normative) Do most Arxtcricans favor legalization of drugs? (Frame) Would legalization of drugs decrease the occurrence of other crimes? (Assumptions) How tnuch would legalization of: drugs increase the frequency of addiction? (Assumptions) 3. The United States should csntinue to send troops to the third world to attempt to restore order. (Normative) Nations in the European Union favor the U.S. sending of troops in trtost cases. (Frame) The support of peacekeepiw activities with U.S. troops generally l-ras not resulted in long-term prevention of disorder in the past. (Assumptions) 4. Strict limits on campaign spending far congressional elections should be adopted. (Normative) Democrats favor spending limits more than do Republicatls, (Frame) Spending limits tend ta increase the reelection rate for incumbents. ( Assumptions) these asslullptio~lscorrect? Scientific investigatiorz trtay be able to test them, Similarly, most reco~rtmendationsfor public policy changes are based on. assumptions about wllat the effects of tl-rose decisioils wilt he, Advocates of a tax decrease may argkle that it will stimulate the economy; thereby creating lobs and ultimately increasing tax revenue, Whether or not these effects would occur is an empirical question that economists attempt to answer. Box 1.2 presents some examples of refc3rmulation rrsirlg both methods, and Exercise B at the end of the chapter offers more, The assumptions method can be valuable in formulating interesting and important research questions, but its limitations must be

kept in mind, Athctugh empirical reformulation may lead to research that will aid normative decisionmaking, ernpiricai research can never actually answer a normative question, To use the previous exatrtples, a believer in democracy trtight favor that fonn of governmetlr even if it were nor more stable, peaceful, or prosperous, and persons with particular economic i n t e ~ s t smay favor or oppose a tax cut regardless of its overal! effect t m the economy

Research Questions Scientific research, like any other serious intellect~~af investigation, begins with a question that the research is intended to answer, Since this starting point will determine the design and conduct of the inquiry, the formtrlatio~~ of a research question (also called a research problem) is of paramount importance, It is not only prokssional scientists who must articulate a research question, but also beginners, Mow often do stuclents start with term paper topicsbut not research questions-and assemble stacks of information and write extetlsive summaries, only to have instructors criticize the resulting papers for lack of focus? A thoughtfully chosen and clearly establisi-red researcl-r question can avoid this problem in both scientific and ntjnscientific inq~iiq. But what are the elements of a desirable research questioll? This is ctiffic~1i.r:to answer in the abstract, but several criteria shoufd be kept in mind in choosing a topic and Eormulating a scientific re, from siinply search question. The first criterion is c l ~ r i t y Aside being comprehensible in t l ~ eusual sense, this means that a question must be specific enough to give direction to the research, and general enough that it suggests what a possible answer would be. For instance, the question "Wl-ry is voter turnout low in the United States?" "ves no direction as to whether we should look at citizen attitudes, election laws, or any number of other possible factors. A inore useful version would be "Is voter ttlmout reduced by political aiieilation?'\or, even better, "Does the use of election day voter registration increase turnout?'Yimilarly3 a question such as ""Wow can poverty in less-developed nations be rernedied?'+ould be improved by asking, "Does foreign investment result in long-term increases in the standard of living?'" Although research questions require specificiry for clarity, limiting their scope in time or place is neither necessary nor generalily desirable, To restrict the e h v e examples to particular cities or elec-

The Sciefztific Stzady nf Research Qzaestions

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tions in the case of voter turnom, or a single n a t i o ~in~ the case ~f economic development, would reduce the theoretical significance and practical relevance of the findil-rgs (these two criteria are discussed beiowf. Although a given research project may weil be confined to a single time or place as a practical maccer, it is the more general question that science seeks to answer. The second criterion is testiabilifiu, and it is an absolute requirement. The research question must be one that can be potentially answered by empirical inquiry, First of all, it must be an empirical question, not a normative question; two methods for reformulating a normative question as an empirical one have already been presented. A second consideration is whether the necessary investigation can be devised and carried out with the resources available. Researching questiorls about attitudes of voters in presidential elections may require condt~ctingnational surveys, wl-rich is a costly enterprise beyond the budget of even professional political scientists, Brit those who lack this abilith including undergraduate students, may still pursue such questions by rnaking use of surveys conducted by others or by conducting surveys of limited popuiations. Anotlzer criterion is theoreticill siglzifiunce, Answering the question should potentially increase our general knowledge and understanding of the topic, Evaluating a potential research question therefore requires finding out what past research findings exist or, at least, what others have geilerally ass~lmedto be true. Although political scientists map not have corzducted much theorizing on a given subject, researchers in orher fields may have developed theories that can be applied. Wc~rkingfrom existing theories or past research does not mean that the irlvestigator necessarity believes tkexn to be correct. Indeed, tl-re suspicion that existing explanations are fundamentally inaccurate or no longer applicable in a changing world is often a major motivation h r research. But whether the research proves tlze past suppositions to be right or wrong, its significance would greater than if the question came only from the researcher" iimagination, because it represents building on previous research, A similar criterion is practiat relevance, Answering the research question should be useful in some real-life application. This is particularly true for questions dealing with causes of social yroblerns and their possible solutions ('"E-iave time limits on eligibility for welfare payments increased employment rates among past recipi-

ents?'". Athough there is a commtrn tendency to think of theoretical significance and practical relevance as opposing qualities, the strongest research questions have some of both. The point is that there should be some poteritial value in answering a research question-eitlzer it should increase our general knowledge of tlze world, or it should help in accomplishing sc~methingsomeone wants to do, If neither is true, then why pursue that topic? A final criterion is orzgiinulity. This does not mean that a research question must he completely new, but it does meall that the answer should riot be so weif established that there is fittie reason to expect a different outcome. For example, the generalization that people with mare education have a higher voter turnout rate than people with Iess education is so well estahlished-in the United States and in the world in generai-that pursuing it as a research topic would not be a wise use of resources, even for an undergraduate student, Howewr, there may well be refatc;d questions-such as why contemporary college students have low rates of political participation, or conditions under which members of ethnic minorities with limited education become activists-that wt>rrld be more promising, Thus there are five criteria to keep in mind in selecting a question for scientific research. It shouId be clear and reasonably specific. Xt must be empirical to be -&file, and it must be a q~zestion that can be investigated given available resources. Xr slzouid have some degree of either theoretical skrtificitnce or pmclical r e k uance, and prefcrahly both, Finally, it should have sorr.le degree of oriXinality, Box 1.3 presents several exarllples of passible research questions, their strengths and weaknesses, and ways in which they might be strengthened.. Exercise C at the end of the chapter does the same.

The Scientific Research Process Figure 2 . 1 presents an oudine of the entire research process, each stage of which will be covered in this book. As discussed earlier, we rnust always start with, a survey of past research and tlzeorizing on a topic. Then one or more =search questions that meet the five criteria can be formulated. From there, keeping in inincl what was already known, hypotheses are developed (Chapter 2). Then we prepare a research design that could test those hypotheses (Chapter 3).

The Sciefztific Stzady nf Research Qzaestions

ff

BOX 1.3 Evaluating and Improving Research Questions

I. Question: "How has Axnerican politics changed since the 1994 elections?'" This question is extremely vague, and so it does not meet the criterion of clarity, ff it were improved in spccificity-for example, ""Has congessional voting been rnore along party lines since 154943'"then it would be much clearer and reaclily testable. Moreover, it would have some degree of significance, since the extent of party regularity in legislatures is a variable that politicai scientists have long studied, and it would have practical relevance for those who seek to influence public policy 2 , Questioil: ""Slould the United States give military aid to Bolivia next year?'This question is obviously normative and therefore nut testable. Additionally, it deals with only a single case, and therefore would be low in significance. It could be transformed by using the a s s u ~ ~ p t i o nmethod s and further strengtlzened by posing it rnore generally, Improved: "Does receiving military aid cause less-developed nations to increase or decrease their spending on health and education"" 3. Question: "'Do the spouses of U.S. senators tend to have higher levels of education than the spouses of U,S, representatives?" This question is clear, easily testable, and probably original. However, it is completely lacking in any theoretical significance or practical relevance,

Next, we collect the necessary data (Ct~apters4 and 5 ) . Since empirical researchers in the social sciences typically collect large amourlts of infrirmation, swtistical artalysis usually is needed to evaluate it (Chapters Q, 8, 9, and 10). Finally, we draw our concltlsions and present them in a research report (infornation on presexitir-rgfindings graphicall y appears in Chapter 7). These findings then add to the body of existing knowledge and may lead us or others to raise new research questions.

FIGURE-,1.1 Stages in thc rcscarcf~process Formullate research questions

-1

Formulare hypotheses

-t

Research design

-1

llata collection

4

Data analysis

-t

Draw conctuslons

Exercises Suggested answers to these exercises appear at the end. It is strongly suggested that the reader attempt to complete the exercises before iookiag at the answers. Note that on Exercises B and C the answers provided are only suggestions, as the problerns could be answered well in a number of ways,

Identify each of the following as empirical, normative, or analyticrtl. 1, If a fareign palicy decision would increase U,f, exports, then that's what should be done. 2. Ptltting courtrooEE trials o n television distorts the ~udicial pracess and defeats justice, 3, Why do commui~istand socialist nations have lower irrcsmes than capitalist nations? 4, Allowing people to carry concealed weapons lowers the crime rate. 5. If guns are outlawed, only oudaws wili have guns. B, The current practice of campaign fund-raising is corrupting the character of American democracy, 7. PeopIe who think that potiticiarrs are dishonest are less likely to vote than those who trust government, 8, 1s affirmative action an unconstitutional form of reverse discrimination?

The Sciefztific Stzady of Research Qzaestions

f .?

9. Political parties have fulfilled a majority of their platform promises over the years, 10. Is political instability related to political change?

Each of the following sentences is normative. Reformulate them using the empirical assumptions method. 1. Should the United States increase the axnount of foreign aid it gives to poor natioils! 2. Would we be better off i f Congress and the presidency were controlled by the same political party! 3. Since poor education is the biggest problem facing the nation, spending for schools should be increased. 4. Negative ca~llpaigltadvertising is what's wrong with elections today, 5. Do we need a new political parry in this country to represent middle-of-the-road views Z

Exer~.I'seC Following are some pote~ltialresearch questions, Evaluate each on the critetria of clarity, testability, theoretical significance, practical relevance, and originality ff there are serious weaknesses, suggest an improved version,

I . How democratic is the U S , political sysrern? 2. Who shot President Kennedy? 3. Do appointed judges make fairer decisions than elected judges do? 4. Which member of the U.S. House had the poorest attendance record oil rotf calf votir-zg in the last session? 5. Are votersVecl.isions in recelit presidential elections influenced more by their attitudes on abortim or by their perceptions of the economic situation?

Suggested Answers to Exercises

I . Normative 2. Normative

3. Empirical 4. Ernpirical S. Analytical C;. Normative '7. Empirical 8, Normative 9. Empirical 10, Analytical 1. Is tl-re amount of U.S. econornic aid received by a nation reIated to subsequent grawtk in per capita income? 2 , Are federal budget deficits greater in years of unified party control than in years of divided control? 3. Do students in scl-rool. districts that spend mare on public education have higher test scores after the average education and income of parents in those districts are taken into account? 4. Was the hequency of negative advertising greater in the 1990s than in the 198QsZ S. Would a new political party with an ideologically centrist pc-~sitionon most issues receive more than 20 percent of the votes? 1. The problem here is a lack af clarity, as tl-re term democracy is used in rnany ways and each has many aspects. Xf made more specific, the question certainly could have considerable theoretical sigt~ificanceandlor practical relevance, for example, 'Wow much of the time are the policy decisions of the U.S. government in agreement with the preferences of a inajority of the people?'" 2. The yuescion is clear and specific, and its mswer could conceivably have some practical relevance. But it is not Likely to be testable, and it is definitively unoriginal. Xn addition, it lacks theoretical significance, as it deals with only a single event. Improved: ""Dopolitical assassinations in modern Jexrlocracies lead to changes in the governing political party Z" 3. The problem here is that fairness is a normative concept, so the question nut testable. Xf some empirical measure were

The Sciefztific Stzady nf Research Qzaestions

f5

subsrituted, then the q~zestioncould be testable, sigz~ificant, and relevant, for example, ""Are elected judges mare likely than appointed judges to render verdicts favoring the del'enbant in crirninail cases?" 4, This is a clear question that could easily be tested, but it lacks any theoretical significance and has little practical relevance, Improved: 'Wms a representative's attendance record affect his or her chances of reelectic~n?" S. This is a reaso~lablyclear and testable question that has considerable theoretical significance for our knowledge of voting behavior and same practical relevance for contemporary politics. Although it is not coxnpletely original, the question is still of interest, as the answer is not completely clear and it r~eedsto be reinvestigated fc~reach new election, Therefore, nu improvement is needed.

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ding Blocks o f the Research Process

This chapter presents a number of different concepts involved in the research process. The goal here is not to teach terminology but to help you keep these ideas straight as you work with them, The concepts discussed in tl-ris chapter constit~~te tlze very heart of social science research, and familiarity with them is not only helpful in understanding how others conduct research but also viral to being able to do it yourself. AIthough tlzese concepts might seem very abstract at first, by the end of the chapter you shouid be able to apply some of them to specific examples yourself.

Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational Definitions: An Overview One of tlze difticulties in simply describing these building blocks of researcfi is that science operates at several levels. Box 2.1 contains a diagram of these levels with two examples. Science starts and ends with theories, Although, the term theor;\! is used in wide variety of ways, it could be defined as a set of empirinll gcmemEixatiuns abuzgt a t q i c , A theory consists of very general statements about hr>w some phenomenon, such as voting decisions, ect~nomicdevelopments, or outbreaks of war, mcurs, But tlzearies are too general to test directly because they make statemetlts about the relatioilship between abstract concepts-sttch as economic development and political alienation-

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BOX 2.2

An Overview of the Levels o f Research

LEVEL THEORY: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2, HYPOTHESES: Variable 1 is related tc-,Variable 2. OPERATIONAL: Operational Definition l is related tct Operational Definition 2,

EXAMPLE 1; THEORY: Econo~nicdeveioprnerit is related to political development. HYPOTHESES: The mare industriafized a nation, the greater tl-re level al mass political participation, OPERATIONAL: The higher the percentage of the labor force engaged in manufacturing, according to the U~2tel-lNations Yearbook, the higher the percentage of the population of voting age that participated in the most recent national election, according the StatkrstnanUearbook.

EXAMPLE 2: THEORY: S~cioecoliomicstatus affects political particiption. HYPOTHESES: The higher a person" incorne, the rnore likely he or she is to vote. OPERATIONAL: The higher a survey respondent" answer when he or she is asked, "Wfiat is your household" ailnual income," the more likely that person wili ailswer "Yes" when asked, ""Did you vote in the election fast November?'"

that are co~nptexand not directly observable. To actually investigate the empirical apglicabitity of a theory, it inust be brought down to more specific terrns, This is done by testing h3~12otheses.A hypothesis is simply an empirical statemertt derived from a theory, The logic linking the two

is that if a genera1 theory is correct, then the more specific hypothesis derived from it ought to be true, Moreover, if the hypothesis is confirmed by empirical observation, then our confidence in the general theory is inrreased. However, if a hypothesis is not confirmed, we must question the validity of the theory Gorn which it was derived. Hypotheses are also related to our research questions, which were discussed in the yrevic>uschapter. Hypotheses are those answers to our research questions that seem to be the most pramising on the basis of theory and past research, Hypotheses are statements about v~rzables.A variable is an empirica/ proper9 that ca,z take on two or more differerzt vai~es.As the examples in Box 2.1 illttstrate, hypatlleses are much more specific than theoretical statements. But even variables are not specific enough lor observatitrn, Each variable in a hypothesis must have an operatio~laldlz(init-lo~,that is, la set of directions as t o how the variabkr is to be observed and measzdred. Constructing operatioilal deflnitiolls is a vital part of the research process and is discussed later in this chapter, The stages illustrated in Box 2.1 show hr>w we move from very gerieral theoretical propositions down to specific instructions about how to measure variables, whether by looking on a particular column in a reference book or asking a specific question in a survey

Types of Hypotheses Hypotheses rnake staternents about variables. These statements can take a variery of fcrrms, as shown in Figure 2.1. If the hypothesis makes a statement about only one property or variable, then it is referred to as a lilrszvarkte hypothesis. h rtzuitirrarilate hypothesz's rna kes a statement about l-row two or rnore variables are related. Most scieritific hypotheses are mrritivariate as well as directional, that is, they specify not just that the variables are related to one another but also what the direction of the relationship is, In a positive or direct relationship between two variables, as one variable rises, the other tends to rise; for exaxnple, ""The rnore education one has, the greater one% income," h1 negative or inverse relationships, the opposite ~ c c u r s ,that is, as one variable rises, tile other tends to fall; for example, ""Tbe wealthier a nation, the lower its Level of illiteracy," h ~nrzorni~ni relationships, the hypothesis does predict the direction, but one or both of the variabtes are

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20

FICiliRi-, 2.1 Types of hyporl~esesand exampies Hypo $heses

U~sivariate

Xblultiva~iatc

Turnout was 49%

Nonassociatiorzal Getlcter is n ~ refaced r to turnout, 1

Directional l

No~dzrecrional Agc is retated to

tQ turnout,

I3osz';cive The higher one's sinco~ne, the higher the turnout.

l Negative Thc rnorc alienated, the tower the turnout,

l

Nonzi~zaE Catholics have higher turnout than Protestants.

such that they can.tlot be described in quantitative terms. An example of such a oofrtinal reiatic~nshipwould be ""Catholics are rnore likely t l ~ a n13ratestants to vote Republican."

Theoretical RaXe Trr mtlst mltivariate hypotheses, each variable takes on a particu-

lar theoretical role; the presumed causal relaionship between the variables is specified. Causality is discussed in greater detail in Chapter 3, but here an introduction to the concept is needed. Iadepe~zdentvauicables are those presumed in the theory underlying the hypothesis to be the caz.lse and dependent variablles are the effects or consequences, Although this distil~ctionis sometimes diffmft to make, in trtost hypotheses it is apparent, The statement may include explicit language to that effect-for example, "causes," ""ads to," or "resutrs in." h other instances, the substantive nature of the variables permits only one direction, For instance, if we hypothesize a relationship between a person" gender and his or her a~itudes,it is cr~nceivableonly that gender is the inde(Which peiident variable and attitude is the d e p e n d e ~ ~ variable. t

gerider you are might intluencr: your thoughts, but it is n ~ passible t for your thoughts to affect your gender,) Often the nature of the relationship lies in the timing between variables. Gender and race, for example, are determined before birth, As a practicai matter, most social characteristics of individuals, such as education, reiigion, and region of residence, are usually determined early in life. In contrast, aspects of political behavior, such as voting decisions and opinions, are subject to alteration with the passage of time. Hence we usually presume that the stjciai factors are independent variables and tlze behaviors are dependent variables. Similarly, if we hypothesize a relatit3nship betweell dernographic attributes (econoxnic development, urbanization, and the like) of geographic or political units (e.g., nations, states, or cities) on the one hand, and their behaviors (e.g., policies they adopt) on the other, then the dexnographics would probably be the independent variables. Ifitimateiy the decision as to which are the independent and whii-h the dependent variables is based on our theoretical tznderstanding of the phenomena in question, Tlze control variable takes on a third theoretical role. Control variables are additiurral! vwkbles that mkhr affect the relationship between the independ~ntand dependent variables, When control variables are used, the intent is to ensLtre that their effects are excluded-that is, to ensure that it is not these variables that are in fact responsible for the variations observed in the depellderrt variable. Control variahies in a hypotbesis are aiways expiicitly fabeled as such, ~zsuaflywith the terms cauttrolling Jar or holding constant. Control variables can go a Iollg way toward clarifying relationships between variables. It can be al! too easy, when we find that two variables are related and we look no further, to conclude that one caused the other. But we must always he alert to the possibility that other hctors rr.lay be involved. 7%)take a well-know example, African Americans l-rave lower rates of voter turnout than do whites. Otle might readily condude that race is somehow the cause of h w e r turnout and advance explarxations based cm racial discrixnination in voter registration or cultural Qifkrences in politicai attitudes, Yet, as a number of studies have shown, if we statistically control for other characteristics such as education, economic status, and region of' residence, the difference largely or even entirely disappears, In other words, if: we compare Afi.ican Americans and whites who have the same Xevel of education and inco~neand live

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in the same part of the courltry3each is as iikely as the other to vote (WoIfinger and Rosenstone, 1980, 90-91 j. This would lead us to conclude that the main reasons for racial disparity in voter turnout are these de~rtograghicfactors; certainly, any investigation of turnout should control for tbexn. Box 2.2 presents several examples of hypothaes, identifying the variables and their roles, Note that although most multivariate hypotheses l-rave only one independent and one dependent variable, it is possible to have more than one of each. Bttx 2.2 also identifies the anit ofn~czlysisimplied in the hypothesis, a collceyt discussed in the next section, Exercise A provides additional examples.

Units o f Analysis As mentioned earlier, variables are empirical. properties, hut of what arc they properties? The answer is the unit c>f analysis in the hypothesis, that is, the olrjects that the hypothesis describes. Jn rnany hypotl-reses the unit of analysis is explicit, If we say that people with one characteristic also tend tc-,have another characteristic, then the unit is the individual person. Tf the hypothesis says that some types of nations are higher in some factor than otlzers, then natioils are the unit of analysis, Sometimes the unit of analysis in a hypothesis is not so obvious. Indeed, there may be a choice, If the hypothesis is simply that "income is related to voter turnout," the unit of analysis could he individuais, or it could be groups of people, such as the populations of states or cities, for both individuals and groups have both incomes and voting, thc~ughin the case of groups it would he totals OF averages. The choice of which unit to use in testing a hypothesis is extrexnely important, In the example just given, the relationship between income and turnom may he very different, depending on which unit of analysis is used. One of the major pitfaits that can occur if the wrong choice of unit of analysis is made is committing the ecologictzt fallacy: ermrrecr~sEydrawing conchsiorrs about irrdividu~lsfrom J ~ t ao t z grozfps. "fhis error is well illustrated in a paper subxnitted by a student in a poiitical scieizce class at Illinois State tlniversity, The student collected data on counties in the Southern states for a xlumber of variables and coxnputed correlations for all the variables. One of his findings was a strong positive relationship between the proportion of a co~zntg'spoyuiation that was African Arrterican and

BOX 2.2 Examples of Hypotheses, Identifying Independent, Dependent, and Control Variables and the Unit of Analysis 1, Urban areas have lower crime rates than rural areas. Independent variable: Urbanization Dependent variable: Grime rates Unit of analysis: Geographic areas, such as states or counties

2. Wirh age held constant, edttcation and political particip"rion are po&tivety =lated. Independen t variable: Education Dependent variable: Political parcicipatian Cotltrol variable: Age Unit of analysis: Individuals

3. The more negative the advertising in a U.S. senatorial campaign, the lower the voter turnout rate. Independent variable: Negativity of campaign advertising Dependent variable: Turnort~rate Unit of analysis: U.f, states

4. With GNP hefd ci>nstant, communist nations spend inore tltan capitaiist nations for the military. Independeslt variable: Tiipecof economic system Deperidexit variable: Military sgeriding Control varia blie: GNP Unit vf analysis: Nations S. 'The better the stare of the economy, the greater the proportion of votes received by the party of the president. Independent variable: State of the economy Dependent variable: Proportion of votes for incumbent party Unit of analysis: Elections corzti~ilues

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6. Controlling for political party, a legisiator" vvotes on abortion are related to his or her religion and educatioil, Independent variable: Religion, Education Dependent variable: Votes on abortion Control variable: Po!itical Party Unit of analysis: Legislators

the proportion of the vote in the 1968 presidential election that was received by Ceorge Wallace, the American Illdependent Party candidate, The student conclrtded that it was African Americans who voted for wailace-an axnaaing finding since wallace was a well-known segregationist who opposed civil rights legislation, This conclusion also contradicted the surveys of the time, in which almost no minorities reported voting for \Vallace, This strange outcome was a result of the ecological fallacy, The studexlt" data and statistics were correct; indeed, others have found that areas in the South with higher nonwlaite papulations voted more for Wallace, His error l a y in drawing cunclusions about which individuals cast which votes. Tt may be that 30 percent of a county was African Axnerican and that 30 percent of the vote went to a particular candidate, hut this tells us wtfiing about how African Americans voted, This example & m i d serve t a rernind us of: the ixnportance of using the appropriate unit of analysis f>r testing hypotheses and drawing conclusit>ns. Committing the ecological fallacy trtay s f t m be texnpting, because data on groups, such as populations of geographic areas, are much easier to obtain from published sources than data on individuals, which usually must come from surveys, Tlae best way to avaid the problem is t a draw conclusions only about the units of analysis for which the data were actually collected. Xf the data coxlcern states, draw collclusions only about states. The decision about the appropriate unit af analysis becomes crucial at the next step of the research process, in which we construct operational definitiom.

Operational Definitions Testing hypotheses requires p ~ c i s eoperational definitions specifying just how each variable will he measured, Operational defirtitions are a cruciai part of the research process, Xf a variable cannot he operationally defined, it cannot be measured, the hypothesis cannot he tested, and the researcl1 question may have to be modified or even abandoned entirely, You will be better able to construct operationai definitions after learning the material in later chapters, particularly Chapters 4 and 5, hut the 1natc;rial here is critical to geteing started. Operational definitions have alrrtost nothing in common with the definitions one finds in a dictionary. Whereas a dictionary might say that "race" refers to ""anyof the major biological divisiolls of mankind, distinguished by color of texture and hair, color of skin and eyes, etc.," an operational definition could be '%ask survey respondents whether they csnsider themselves to be African American, White, Hispanic, Asian American, Native American, or other," Or, if the unit of analysis were a state, the operational definition might he ""the percentage of the population that is nonwhite, according to the U.S. census of 1990." As suggested in the previous section, the unit of analysis will often determi~lehow a variable is operationalizcd, so it is necessary first to determine wl-rat the appropriate unit is for the hypothesis, Often the unit of analysis will he individuals, that is, people for whom data are available on each of our variables, so that we wiif eventually be able to compare the frequency with which individuals who have one characteristic also have ailc~ther, Data on population groups, such as census figures and voting totals for cities and states, will not suffice. On the other band, if our units are population groups, or aggregates, then those g r o w data would he appropriate. A fundamental principle to be remembered is cllac all variLzbles in a hypothesirs must be operatiorsnlked firr the same zhnit of nnaIysis. Afler the unit of analysis has been selectc;d, constructing an s p erattional definition has two requirements, It must specify prer w a ~and t whew (or h o d we wit/ get it. In the excisely ~ h a we ample of race for individuals used above, what we want is to know which ethnic group each person identifies with, and how we will get it is through a survey. If the same hypothesis concerned states, then what we would want for race woutd be the

26

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proportion of the population that is nonwhite, and where we would get it could be the U,S. Bureau of the Census, As this example stlggests, two units of analysis are very common in political science, and each has a typical type of data source, 11 the unit of analysis is the individual, meaning people in general, then the source us~talfymust be a survey, for tl~ereare very few pieces of politically relevant information about ordinary people tkat can be obtained in other ways. The methodology of surveys will be presented in Chapter 5. Elowever, if the "iindividual" is a special type of person, such as the holder of a government office, then many other variables are readily available. For example, for mexnbers of Congress, persmal history data, campaigr.1 contributic->nsand spending, and votes on legislntive issues are a rr.latter of public record. ""lndividrrals'hs a unit of analysis can also be insticutians, sucl-r as interest groups, corporations, and political parties; often sources may be found of infclrmation already collectd on them, though surveys of institutions may aXso be necessary, Data sources for geclgraphic population groups and governments at ail levels are discussed in Chapter 4, An astonishing variety of information is collected by governments across the world as well as by other agencies. Ehwever, one prillciple to keep in mind when constructing operational definitions using data on This means groups is that the data usually must be st.r;l;r"td~rdz'x~d~ that it should be measured in a way that makes comparison of different cases meaningful, usually by standardizing to the population. Unstandardized xneasures usually reflect tl-re total size of the population group more than anything else. Thus if the variable is ''how Democratic a state voted," the appropriate rr.leasure would be the percentage of the vote tkat was Democratic, not tile total number u l vrltes, 11 we are concerned with the wealth of nations, then per capita gross rlatioxlal product (GNP) would be a better measure than total GNP. (If we do not standardize these aggregate measures, then almost any variable will correiate with any other, simply heca~zselarger states or rlations have more of almost everything than smaller ones.) Box 2.3 presents examples of hypotheses and of how the wriables might be operationalized, Exercise B at the end of the chapter presents other exaxnpies for self-testing.

BOX 2.3 Examples o f Hypotheses and Oprrarionat Definitions

1. The more a congressional calldidate spends, the more successful his or her campaign.

S p e n d i ~ g :Tlze amount of campaign spending reported to the Federal Election Commission. Succas: The percellrage o f the total votes received by the candidate according to America Votes, 2, The more econoxnicaily developed a nation, the lower the level of political instability

Economic development: Per capita GNP as reported by the United Nations Yearbook, Poiitical insmbility; The average number of coups d'itat, assassinations, and irregular execrltive transfers per year since 1970, according to the Worfd Haadbook of Political a ~ Social d Indicators. 3. The higher the level of: a person's education, the more likely he or she is to favor legal abortion.

Eiiucati~pl:Ask a survey respondent, "How far did you go in s c l ~ o o ~ ? " Opinion on abortion: Ask the survey respandent, "Do you believe that ahortion should be legal under any circu~nstancesor not?"

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4, The trtore csmpetitive political parties are in a state, the more the state spends on education,

Party cc~mpetz'tionzThe difference between the Republican and Democratic percentages of the vote k ~ goverrlor r subtracted from 100, citl~~lilwd fr01rt data in Anzeric~Votes, Spending fc~reducation: Per pupit spending for public elemeiltary and secondary education, according to the U.S, Statistical Abstract.

Exercises Suggested answers far these exercises appear at the end of the chapter. It is suggested that you attempt to complete the exercises before looking at the answers, For each af tl-re following hypotheses, identify wl-rat appear to be the independent, dependent, and (if any', control variables and the unit of analysis. l. Media attention is necessary for a candidate to succeed in a primary election, 2. With education, income, and region held constant, there is little difference in turnout between whites and African Americans. 3. Southern states have less party competition than Northern states. 4, W11en Length of time since i~~dependeilce is held constant, democracies are trtore stable than dictatctrships. 5. The Larger a city, the higher the crixne rate tends to be.

Far each of the following hypotheses, construct opemtional definitions for the variables,

1. Cantroiling for education, the more urban an area, the lower the voter ttlrnout, 2 , People who perceive that they are better off: economicalfy tend to vote for the incumbent candidate for president, 3. Nations that receive U.S. foreign aid are more likely to support the Uilited States in foreign policy. 4. Winning candidates have more positive perceptions of voters than do losing candidates. S. The better the state of the econr>my, the better the candidates s f the incumbent president" party do in congressional elections.

Suggested Answers ta Exercises l , Indepelldent variahle: media attention; dependent variable: electinn success; unit of analysis: candidates 2. Independent variable: race; dependent variable: voter turnout; controf variables: education, race, region; unit of analysis: individuals 3. Independent variable: region; dependent variable: party competition; unit of analysis: states 4, Independent waria ble: ty ye of government; dependent wariable: stability; control variable: time since independence; unit af analysis: nations S. Independent variahle: size; dependeilt variable: crime rate; ~ l r ~of i t ar~alysis:cities

1, Education: The median years of education af persons 25 years af age and over, according t a the U.S. Statistical Abstract. Urbanization: The proportion of persons living in places with poyulations of 2,500 or more, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Voter turnout: The proportion of persogls of voting age casting ballots in the 1996 presidential election, according to tlze U,S. Statistical Abstract.

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2. E c o n o ~ ~ perceytic~n: ic Ask swvey respondent, ""Do you think you and your hmily are better off eccrnotnically, worse off, or about the same as you were four years ago?" Presidential vote: Ask survey respondent, "Did you vote for Bill Clintan, Bob Dole, Ross 13erat,or surneone else in the electioil last Nc~vember?" 3. Foreigxl aid: Did a nation receive any military or economic assistance from the United States in 1997, according the U.S. State Department? Support in foreign policy: Percentage of time a nation voted with the United States in the United Nations General Assembly in 1997, calculated from data in the Uni&d RTatz'ons Yearbook, 4. Positive perceptions: Interview candidates for the state legislat~~re and ask, "Do you ttlink tl-rat voters in this district are highly ink>rmed,somewhat informed, or not very well informed about the issties?'" WinninglXosing: Look at the report of the State Election Crjmmission to see which of the candidates won the election and which iost, 5. State of the economy: The change in real per capita disposable personal income for the year of the election, according to the Annual Report of $he Council of Ecorromic AduiSe~s. Success of the incuxnbent president" party: CaXculate what percentage of House seats were wail by that party" scndidates in each election from results in Coqressionab Qsdauterly Weekly Report,

Research Design

Once we have selected a research question and set forth one: or more testable hypotheses, the next step is to fc~rmulatea research design. This step, along with the building blocks covered in the previous chapter, i s critically ixnportant in the research process. People use the term research design in two different ways. In this chapter, research design refers to the logical method by which we propose to test a hypothesk. But in a braader sense research design can refer to a whole proposal fur a research project that would also include the review of the literature, details of how data will be collected, a discussion of the statistical tests that will he used once the data are collected, and possibly even a budget far the proposed expenditures. This broader sort of research design i s what you would submit if you were asking for financial support for a projecc or approval Eor a graduate thesis proposal,

The Concept of Causality The types of research designs presented in this chapter are all intended to test wllether one variable causes anutl-rer or causes tl-re variatioil in another, As explained in the previous chapter, many hypotheses use the language of callsation-far example, "influences," ""leadsto," or "is a result of." The previous chapter itlcrodwed the idea of an independent variable (the cause) and a dependent variable (the effcct). Here we will see more completely what this idea of causality means and how it can be determined, In order to draw the conclusion that one thing causes another, we must determine that three criteria have been met, The first is co-

uaricatiorr, that is, evidence that two phenomena tend to occur at the same tirnes or for tl-re same cases. If we observe, for example, that every time there is a crisis in foreign policy, presidential popularity increases, or that people with high incomes are more likely than poor people to be Republicans, we are noting evidence of covariation. Govariation is also called correlagkon, and statistics that measure the strength of covariatic~nare referred to as correlatiofz coefficients-or simply curreliatiorzs, Ail types of research designs intellded to determine whether causation exists are set up to measure the extent of covariation, People s o ~ ~ e t i m have e s stopped there and assumed that covariation alone is grounds for concluding that causation exists. This kind of reasoning can lead to the conclusion, for example, that storks are respmsible for babies or that umbrellas cause rain. But, as is often repeated in methodology courses, correlation does not mean causality. Two other criteria must also he met, One is time order. fW;e rr.lust have evidence that the presumed cause (the independent variable) happened before tl-re presumed effect (the dependent variable), The third criterion is nonspurkousness, We must be sure that any c~variationwe observe betweeri the independent and dependent variables is not caused by other factors. As we will see, each type of research design attempts to fulfil! these criteria, with varying degrees of success,

Types of Research Design The "?).ueWExperirne~ztulDexigli~ When many people tl-rink of ""science," they think of experiments. It is true that the physical and biological sciences and some of the social sciences use experimentation frequently, though never exclusively. It is i~nporttlntto understand how an experiment is set up, not because experiments are terribly comxnon in political science, but because the logic involved is relevant to all types of research design. We sometimes use the modifier ""true'3ltecause the term experr'p~enir.is sometimes used to describe all sorts of tl-rings that are not experiments at ail, Figure 3.1 presents an outline of what is required bp the 'kciassic" experiment-the sixnpless version of a true experiment. Experimentation has its own vocabulary, employing such terms

FIGURE 3.1 The dassic experiment and an example A, The C:lassic Experiment Expcrimcntat group

Assip subjects f randomly or by matching

Stimulus { f~tdcpcrmdermt

variable)

Pasttcst i

L

il

Posttcst (Llepcndcnt varia blc)

Control group

B, An Example: Hypothesis: Taking an introctuctory American C;overnment course increases political interest, Expcrimsntal R'Oui?

Assign students /fl randomly

\ Control group

S t i ~ ~ ~ u t u s Posttcst {rake {Political coursef Interest score) $ {Do nor take courscf

130srrcst f ( ffolitical Interest score)

Compare

as sul2jecd.s and slinzulus; we will use them, but we will also see how they are translated into the terms we have used to describe hypotheses. The classic experiment starts with a group af subficts, tl-rat is, the units ofa~aIysis,whether individual people, laboratory animals, or anything else. These subjects or units are then divided into two groups by soxne method that would assure tl-rat the two groups are as identical as possible on the dependent variable in the hypothesis, The best: way to do this is to rartdomb iasskrz the subjects tct the two groups by same inethod such as flipping a coin, Xf this is done, then the two groups should, statisticalljf, be identical in their distribution on not only the depende~itvariable but. also on any otlzes variables, wllether or not those variables can be measured. Sornetimes randomization is not used, mainly because the number of

34

Research I>wign

subjects in the experiment is too small, Under those circumstances it is necessary to use a pretest to rneasure the dependent variable. Then a procedure catted "matching" is used to divide the subjects into two groups that have very similar distributions on the dependent variable. The subjects in the first group, often called the experimental or treatment group, then receive a stimuists. The stimulus (or lack of it) is the independent variable in the hypothesis. The other group, called the colztrol grow, does not receive the stimulus. After the stimulus has hacj time to work its expected effects, all subjects in both groups are given a posttest that measures the dependent variable, Finaliy, the results of the two groups' ppasttests are coxnpared. If they are significantly different in the way predicted by the hypothesis, then we can conclude that the hypothesis is confirmed, (""Significantly" k a statistical term that will be explained later in the bor>k,) Tc) understand how the classic exyerimerit can ""pove39he hyporhesis, it is useful to see how the three causaliq criteria are met. First, it is the posttest comparison that shows whether there is covariation. If, for example, the experimental group measures higher on the dependent variable in the posttest, tl-ren we see that she subjects who received the stimulus measure higher on the test than those who are not, Second, we inust be certain that the results are nonspurious. Tlnis is assured by the fact that the experi~nentaiand treatment groups were exactly the same in all ways before the stirnulus was applied. That is why it is so important that the sstbjetlts be assigned to groups by an appropriate method, suck as randarnization or matching. If they were assiglled to grt.>upsin any other way, then we could not be sure that any difference between groups was caused by the stixnulus. (It is aiso assumed that all sub~ectswere treated in the same way in all other regards.) Finally, the criterion of time order is clearly satisfied by the fact that the stimulus (independent variable) is applied before the posttest measures the depelldent variable, Thus, a properly conducted experilneat call provide a ct~nvincingtest of a hypothesis that one variahle causes has a causal effect on-another. Let us see how the classic exprirnellt could be used to test the hypothesis that taking an introductory American Govern~nentcourse increases the degree of political interest among college students. (This example is also diagrammed in Figure 3.1,) First of all, we might take as our subjects ail of the incoming freshmen at a college

one year, Using the ~zniversity" corrtputer, we randomly separate them into two groups, We schedule one group (tl-re experimental group) to take the course (let's call it PS IM), whereas those in the other group (the control group) are not allowed to take the course, At the end of the semesler, we require every freshman to fill out a questionnaire that asks a list of questions about their interest in politics. The questionnaire, which is the posttest in this experiment, is structured such that tl-re responses yield a score reflecting degree of political interest. If the experimental groupthe group that took PS 101-has a lzigher average score than the controt group, then we conclude that PS 101 caused greater interest, confirming our hypothesis. It is important to emphasize that m a n i p ~ f a f i of u ~subjects is a rlecessary part of any true experiment, Xn the PS 101 example, we had to tell students wl-rether or not they would take tl-re course, rather than allowing them tc-,make that decision, Such manipufation is necessary because self-selection would probably yield two groups tl-rat would not be identical in their political interest initially. Indeed, students who have more interest in politics are more t in American Government, so the fact that likely to choose t ~ enroll. they have more interest after taking the course than tl-rose wllo did not take the course would prove ~lothingin itself. Although true experiments are generally considered to be the best test of hypotheses, they are also subject to a number of practical limitations. One of the biggest problems is that it is difficult or impossible to trtanjpulate trtany independent variables. We cannot change a person's gender, race, age, a r rnany atlzer social characteristics or people" beliefs or attitudes. Nor can we manipulate larger social phenomena, such as wars, economic conditisns, elections, a r ather events. In fact, the use of experimentation in political science has largely been iimited to investigations of communications, for we can manipulate, at least temporariIy, individuals' exposure to sucl-t stimuli as campaign speeches, advertising, news reports, and instrwtional events such as lectures, Another problem with experimentation is a lack of representative saxnples, Whereas nonexperirnexltal researchers usually make a careful effort to use random samples of the entire adult populaticrn for surveys, it is rarely possible to involve anythir~glike a sa~rtpleof the general public in. an experiment. Typically researchers conducting an experiment advel-tise for people willing to spend a few hours of their time at a specified location participating in a study in exchange for a

36

Research I>wign

mtrdest fee, but this inevitably will excfude large segments of the population. In the PS I01 example this was not a problem, since the relevant population consisted only of college studems. Another freq~zentproEtlexrl is that experimeaits often are conducted in an artificial setting, Consider the typical. situation in experiments on effects of the mass media: Most people do not usually watch television in a strange place, surrounded by strangers, knowing that they will have to fill out a questionnaire afcerward. Indeed, the experiment may require watching material about politics by people who would never expose themselves to such stimuli on their own, Hence we can never he completely sure about wl-rether the effects observed in the experimental situation would be the same in real life. A related probkm is that of outside influences, Most experirnents in political science use hurnan beings as subjects, and human beings cannot he as closely controlled as Laboratory animals. Thus it is always possible that other stimuli, such as corrversations, news events, and personal experiences, might affect surne subjects. If the time between the stimulus and the posttest is minimal, as it might well be in a highlf artificial setting, then this corrcerrt is minimized. But if tl-re experiment runs far weeks or months, as in tl-re 13S 101 example, there are innumerable possibilities for other influences to exert an effect and contaminate the experiment, It is often a diternxna far the researcher as to wl-rether to construct a Iixnited, well-controlled experiment in a higMy artificial setting or to use a real-world setting over a longer period a i d run the risk of havixlg external influences affect the outcome. Finally, ethical considerations are of particular concern in human experimentation. Unlike other research designs, in which subjects are only observed, presumably with minimal or no disturbance to them, expriments do somethit~gto subjects that they might not otherwise experience, This is obviously a serious consideration in biological, medical, and even some psycholr~gicalresearch, where stimuii or other experimental conditions (suck as the withholding of medical treatment) could be very harmful. It is seldosrl a serious probiexn in political science experiments, where stimuli usually are limited to c.r>mmui~icatioils, but possil?ie dangers must aiwa y s be considered. Indeed, federal law requires that researcfi invoivitlg human subjects undertaken by any institution receiving federal funds (wi~ichincludes almost all colleges and universities) he approved by

a local panek (The rule even extends to nr)nexperimeiital research involving any contact with individuals, including survey research.) Despite all these potentiaf prc.>blems,experimentation does have consideratlte merit as a technique for testing hypotheses. Indeed, every method has its limitations. The preceding discussion should serve to point out that aithough experimellts are logically the best way to fulfil1 the causalit)i criteria, in many situations they are nut the best choice of research design, A number of variations in experimental design expand on the si~rtpleclassic model to circn~rtventsome of the potential problems. One addresses the possibility that giving a pretest inay have an effect on the subjects, If the subjects are initially given a yuestiuilnaire on some political topic, that alone may increase their interest or affect their opinions and thus potentially influence their responses on the posttest given an hour or two later, A solution to this problem is the Solomon four-group design, in which the experiment is done twice, once with pretests and once without. 13asttestcomparison can then determine the effect of the pretest as well as that of the stimulus. The Solomon four-group design is actually a version of the f;sctorial desigfs, which is used when there i s rnore than one stimulus (and thus mare than one independent variable) or difkring levels of the same stimulus. The experiment i s simply done two or more times with different subjects, so that each possible combination of stirnuli can be applied, An example would be a study on the effect of: precinct-level campaigning in which one group of subjects were exposed to politicat appeals only by Democrats, one only by Republicans, one by both parties, and a control group that received no appeals. Regardless of the number of groups and combination of stimuli, the logic of a11 experirnent is the same,

The Quaii Eperiment (Natgral Experiment) The second type of research design i s comrrtoniy called the quasi experiment or natural experiment, This is an unfortrli~ateiahel as it is not a true experiment. It can be presented in rnuch the same terms as a true experiment, hut it is [>hen used without any such references. A better name might he the before-and-after design, f c x that is clre essence: comparison of the dependent variable belore and after the independent variable has heten applied.

38

Research I>wign

Figure 3.2, diagrams the quasi-experimental design. It does look similar to the classic experiment, but it differs in two vital ways. First, the subjects are not assigned to groups. Rather, we observe which subjects have something happen to them and then go hack and sort them into the experi~xtenta!and control groups. Thus the quasi experiment lacks manipulation of the independent variable, which is the essence o f a true experiment, Second, the quasi experiment requires a pretest af the dependent variable, so that t11e amount of change can be measured for each group. It is a significant difference in change between groups that would lead to a conclusion that the independerit variable influences the dependent variable, In this way, the criterion of cova&tz'tzn is met in this desig~l,We can observe whether the stimulus fix., the independent variable) is associated with a different amouxlt of chaxlge in the dependent varia ble. But what about the other two criteria? The criterion of time order is met, as this before-and-after design always includes a rneasure of the dependent variable after the stixnulus-and so we always know that the independent variahle came before the dep e d e n t variable, But what about the criterion of nonspuriousness? A true experiment assures nonspurious results by starting out with identical experimentai and cnlltrol groups, But in the quasi-experimentd design, the two groups may be (and ~zsually are) quite different from one anather in many respects. Tile quasi experiment relies on the assumption that all of the other possible factors, kaiown and unknown, that might influence the dependent variable l-rave had their effects on all subjects at the time af the pretest, and therefore any differences between the grou ys in the extent of change frcrrn pretest to posttest is presumed to result from tl-re stixnulus, that is, the independent variable. Admittedly, this assumption is something we can be less sure about than the principle that large, randomly assigned groups will be identical, as is the case in a true experiment, But it makes possible the testing of causal hypotheses in situations where a true experiment would be difficult or even imyr>ssibfe, Figure 3.2 also outlines an example af a quasi experiment tl-rat is similar to the example of a classic experiment in Figure 3.1, The hypothesis to be tested is that watching a presidential debate increases intensity of support for candidates. The subjects are students enrolled in large sections of an introductory political science course. Before the debate, they are given a survey that measures

FIGURE-,3.2

The quasi-cxpcrimcntal dcsigrl and an cxarnpIc

A, The Quasi-experimental Llesign

Subjects are not ass~gncdto groups m advance; they are sorted after ~t is known whrcls experienced the sr~mulu?;

f

Stimulus 130srtesr f"feresr (Delsendcnt (Independent (Deperldent Varta ble) VdriabIe)

Stimulus (Delsendcnt (Independent Variable) VartabIe)

+ r

\\

"JI f"feresr

Compute Change

Compare Change

130srtesr Compute ' (ll"eper~dent Change %nabre)

B. An Example: Hypothesis: Watching a presidenral debaee increases itltensit-y of support, Stimulus f'rereur (Report (Intensity of sumart) watchmg debate) Suhjecn: all studerlts tn a ctass

ot support) Conzpare

\\ Stinzulus Pretest (Report (intensity of support) nor watchit: debate)

their attitudes about the candidates, including which catldidate they prefer and how strongly they hold that preference. After the debate, a second survey is administered, again asking for strength of preference and also asking whether or not the student watched the debate. The surveys include a coded means of identification so that the results of an individual's pretest can be compared with his or her posttest while guaranteeing confidentiality or anonymity. With matched pretests and postrests in hand, it is possible to calculate whether the intensicy of candidate preferences increased more in those who saw the debate (the experimental group) than in those who missed the debate (the control grttup). Tncidemall?i, a variet): of studies over the years, including one by the author using this design, have generally confirmed this hypothesis. Presidential debates, it seems, do not generally make voters favor one candidate over the

40

Research I>wign

other; rathes, they srrengthen the preference for the choice the voter has already made,

T h e Correlational Design The correlational design is very simple. At a hare minimum it requires only collecting data on an independent and a dependent variable and determining whether tl-rere is a pattern of relationship. I-.Iowever, it is usually advisable also to colfect data on other potentially relevant variables and statistically control for them, Figure 3.3 presents a11 outline of this sirtlple procedure, The correlational design differs from the quasi-experimental design in that it does not require any repeated measurements of a variable over time, (For that reason, it is also called a "crross-sectionaImdesign,) It is bp far the 111ost common a ~ p r o a c hin political scieltce research. To avoid confmion, it: shoutd be pointed out that "cr>rrelations,'"thnt is, statistical measurements of the strength of the relationsl~ipbetween variables, can be used not just in this type of design but also in quasi experiments and in true experiments. How does this si~npledesign fulfil1 the three criteria of carzstlfiw The extent of covariation is clearly deterrnined by rneasuring the extent of correlatioil between the independent and dependent variables. The correlational design attempts to meet the criterion of nonspuriousness by analyzing the effects of control variables. This method is nc>tas strong as that achieved by true experiments or even quasi experiments, because here we can control only k)ir those variables of which we are aware and can measure, A1tkougl-s.some correlational research may control for a considerable number of other factors, it is rlever possible to control for e v e ~ t h i n gthat rllight he relevant, Hawever, it is olren possible to ensure that some of the most prominent complicating hctors are not creating a spurious relationship between the independent and dependent variables. It is on the criterion of time order that the correlational design is weakest, Since no difference is required in the point in time when the indeyendent anif dependent variables are collected, we can never be sure that one must be the cause and the atl-rer the effect. Howeve4 as the discussion of independent and dependent variables in Chapter 2 poiltted out, our knowledge of many subjects makes that determination fairly easy, VVe know that although a person" gender or race might affect his or her vote, it: could nor be tile other way around, Hence, although the correlational desigr~is funda~nentally

FIGURE-,3.3 The corrclationaI dcsigrl and exaxnpIcs

A, The Correlational I3csign Control variabtes L\

i , h .

Independent varia hle

Correlation?

Dependent variable

K, An example: Hypothesis: Voter turnout is Iower in urban arcas. Contrat for income, education age, party competition, etc.

\

/

*\,

Urbanization

Voter tumout

C , An example: Hyporl~esis:Campaign contact afiects voter;. Czontrat for respondent's party identif cation

/ Recall call-tpaign contact

\\

C:arrelation?

M- Voted for contacting party

weaker than the experimental and quasi-experiment4 designs, it can provide considerable evidence of causality. And since it does not require any manipulation or even continued measurernenrs over time, it can be applied in any situation where data can be collected a n two a r mare variables. Here is an example ot: a carrelational design (also diagrammed in Figr~re3.3).The a~zthorwished to test the hypothesis that voter turnout is tower in urban areas. The units af analysis were counties within a state. The indepellde~ltvariable, urbanization, was operationalized as the percentage of population Iivirlg in "iurhan places" according to U.S. census data, The dependent variable, voter turnout, was simply the number of votes cast divided by the votitlg-age population. When these two figr~reswere analyzed, the

42

Research I>wign

relationship was vesy apparent. The ct~untieswith no urban population had the l-rigl-restturnout, and turnout declined as urbanization increased; the Ic~westturnout was iil the metropolitail areas, which were almost entirety urban. But one trtight questiort whether it is realty urbanization that affects turnout; after all, urban and rural areas differ on many other characteristics known to he related to turnout. Therefore, several other variables, ail availabie from published sources, were used as control variables, including median income, median education, percentage employed in manufacturing, percentage in professic~naland managerial occ~tpaticjns,percentage nonwhite, median age, and a measure of party cs~rtpetition.When these other variable were controlled statistically (using multiple regressioil, a procedure that will be discussed in Chapter IQ),the relationship between urbanization and turnout was only slightly dirninisl~ed(Monroe 1977). Correlational designs are frequently used in connection with data from surveys, Here is an example (also diagrarrtmed in Figure 3.3) where a control variable proved to be important. The researcher (Mramer 1970) wished to test the hypothesis that conta~tlngvoters in a doocto-door campaign caused them to vote for the party that rnade the contact, The independent variable was measured by a survey question that asked whether the respondem remembered being contacted by any workers from either of the political parties before the election, The dependent variable was the respondent" reported vote. Analysis of these two variables revealed a definite pattern, Respondents who recalled having been contacted by Republican workers tended to vote Republican, and those wlla had heard from the Demo~cratsusually vr~tedfor the Democratic candidate. But did this mean that door-to-door contact really affected votes? When the respondents>party identification (i.e., whether respondents identified themselves as Republicans, Democrats, ar independents) was used as a control variable, the relationship between contact and vote disappeared. What had happened was that party workers tended to contact vtlters who had supported their party in the past, Those people voted for the party of the contact, but they would have anyway. Like many other studies of campaigning, this example showed that such attempts to persuade voters rarely change their prekrences. Tl1e example also ilfustrates the importance of using control variables. Some correlational research reports can he found in which, for one reason or another, the analyst does not attempt to

control for any variables, The results nevertheless have some value, because tlzey tell us that two variables da occur together. However, our ability to draw any cr~nclusionsabout causaliq between the variables is more limited. Methods of statistical controlling and their application to causal interpretation are presented in Cl~apter10,

Although there are a great number of vtariatic~ilson these three basic types of design as well as ways of combinkg them, there is also a great deal of research in the literature of political and social science that does not meet the requirexnents of even a correlational design without control variables, Often this research does not invc~fve: quantitative data (though it could do so), but it may be quite ernpirical. Essentially, such work is descriptive and may serve to increase our knowledge, hut it cannot "'prove" anything in a scientific sense. An example of such descriptive work is the case stgdy, in which the history of a particular event is recounted and analyzed, sometimes in great depth. There many examples of lengthy studies on how particular policy decisions were made, Their authors seek to shed some tight on why those decisions were reached, hut since only one case is studied, we have no way of knowialg what the outcome would have been if conditions and actions had beexi differexit. The weakness of a case study is that it Iacks the ability to measure covariation. Even il a case study could determine causality in some way, its conclusions would not he generalizations. However, case studies and other, similar types of research can be valut~biebecause they may suggest research questions and hypotheses to which more rigorous designs involving larger numbers of cases can be applied,

Exercises Suggested answers follow the exercise questions, It is suggested that you attempt to write these designs hefore you look at the answers.

Propose a hypothesis m d a research design of the type specified, l. Write an experimental desigil for the research question "Dc3ets negative political campaigning decrease voter turnout?'"

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Research I>wign

2. Write a quasi-experiment4 design for the research question ""Boes increasing speed limits increase the number of traffic fataiities? 3. Write a correlatiollal design for the research question ""Does election day registration lead to higher voter tt~rnout?" 13roposel-rypothesesand write research designs of each type for the research question ""Do the efforts of precinct workers contacting voters drrring a campaign g a k votes for their party" candidates?'" 1. Write an experi~nentaldesign for this question. 2 , Write a quasi-experimental design h r this question, 3. Write a correlational desigr~for this question,

Suggested Answers to Exercises 1. The hypatl-resis is that exposure to negative advertisernents will decrease tl-re intention to vote. Subjects are recruited by advertisements and offered $15 to participate in a stucly of iwal news, They are randomly assigned to tlze experimentai and control groups. The experimental group is shown a videotape of a recent local newscast into which has been inserted an advertisement far a U,S, Senate candidate tl-rat is ""negative" in nature, that is, it makes critical comments about the cmdidate's opporrent. The control group watches a tape with the same content except that a nonpoliticai product commercial has been inserted instead of the political ad. Afterward, the subjects are asked if they intend to vote in the Senate election or x~ot, The percentages of each group intending to vote are tl-ren compared, This experimental design was used by Ansolabehere et ai. ( 1994); the researchers also iwestigated the sarne research question with a quasi-experirnencal design using aggegate data, 2. The hypothesis is that increasinlg speed limits inrcreases highway fatdicies. When Congress allawed states to increase speed limits on interstate highways, some states did so and

others did not, This makes a quasi-experimental design possible. The pretest is the traffic fatality rate in each state during the last year that the speed limit was SS mifes per hour in aII states, States are then divided into tvvo groups: those that increased the speed Limit dtlring the next year and those that did not. The posttest is the traffic fatality rate in each state during the first year that some increased the limit. The cl-ranges in death rates from pretest to posttest Eor the two gn(>upsare then compared. 3. The hypothesis is that election day voter registration results in higher voter t u r n ~ u t .The units of analysis are states. Tl-re independent variable is whether or not a state had election day voter registration in 1496, The dependent varia bIe is the percentage of voting-age population casting batlots in tl-re 1996 presidential election, The relationship between these tvvo variables is analyzed, controlling for other characteristics of each state's population, includitlg medial1 years of education, xnedian hmity income, median age, degree of party competition, percentage living in ~lrbanareas, and whether it was a southerr-r state or not, 1. The l-rypothesis is tl-rat people contacted by someone working for a candidate will be xnore likely to vote for the candidate. A random sample of registered voters is selected, and the s m p l e is rmdomly divided into experimental and control groups. Workers go to the homes of voters in the experimental group and give a piece of Democratic party campaign literature to the selected voter arid deliver a short speech asking for support for the candidate b r Gongess* Those in the control groups receive a nonpartisan brochure and message urging them to vote, Xmmediately after the election, the postcesr is administered by using a tetepho~le survey asking whether each person in the sampte voted and, if so, fur whom they voted. The percentages voting for the Democratic candidate supported by the campaign workers is then compared for the two groups, 2. The hypothesis is that voters who recalt having been contacted by a campaign worker for a candidate will be more

Research I>wign

likely to vote for that candidate. A random sample of registered voters is selected. A panet survey is conducted three months beiore a gubernatorial election, and all respondents are asked their voting ilatenticzn in the coming election for governor, Immediately after the electian, the same individuals are interviewed and asked for whom they voted. They are also asked if they recalf havirtg been personally contacted by workers for either candidate. 'The voting intention fi-om the first survey for each individual is c o ~ ~ p a r to e dhis or her response from the postelection survey to see whether there was arty change. The data are then analyzed to see whether there was greater cl~ange amoilg those who were contacted by either party, contacted by both parties, or not contacted. Note that this is similar to the research by Krarner (1970) used as an example of a correlational design in Figure 3.3C. But the design proposed here is a quasi-experimental design because the dependent variable (voting intention) is measured both before and after the independent variable (possible contact by a party worker) is measured. 3. The l-rypathesis is that the more time put in by precinct workers fc~ra party during an eiection campaign, the better that party will do in the etection, The independent variable, worker time, is measured by surveying botlz the RepuI?.iicanand Democratic precinct committee members fro117 a random sample of precincts in a state at the time of an election. They are asked haw much time they put in during the campaip, and the net advantage in time to Republicans over the D e ~ ~ o c r a tiss computed for each precinct. Tlze dependent variable is the Republican percentage of the vote for a minor office in each precinct, The relatiomhip between these two variables is analyzed, controlling for otlzer clzaracteriscics of the precinct available from census data, including median income, percentage in professionat and managerial employment, percentage nonwhite, and median age. A number of studies have used this sort of design, includinf: Katz and Eldersveld (1961j and Cutright (1963); mtlst have found that precina campaigning had oniy a small impact on the vote,

Published Data Sources

How do we get the data rlecessary to execute our research designs and test hypotheses? Often it is possibie to use information others have collected and made available to the public. This is fortunar-e, because it is rare that even a very well funded project would allow the researcher to travel to many cities or states, let alone to aII the nations of the world, to collect information first-hand. Tl~iscllapter introduces some of the major published sources of data that political scientists use in their researctl and suggests some strategies for discovering other sources, The chapter concludes with a description of content analysis, a technique for turning verbal messages into quantitative data. An explanation of the term d n a is needed here. Data xnight be defined as empirical observations of; one or more zilnriables for a rr~mberof cases, collected acrordil.tg t o the same opercltional definitio~s.The examples of operalional definitions presented in Chapter 2 included several that were based oil published data frorrl a reference source. When we have to rely on existing sources for our data, we must construct our operational definitions in terms of the data available, P-iaving some familiarity with what kinds of data are available and where they might be found makes this task less difficult, Although we usually think of data as numerical, this is not necessarily the case. Many variables are actually a record of which category a case falls into-for example, Republican, Northeastern, Catholic, high, medium, or low-but since the infc~mationfc~und in published sorirces often csncerns groups or aggregates, the data

Published Data .Sozarccs

are in x~urnericalterms, usually as totals or in strine standardized form such as percentages or averages.

The Internet as Data Source This chapter is mainly collcertled with published data, which generatly can be found in a library or, increasingly9on the -Internet, In the saxnpling of data sources presented here, some Internet addresses are nt->tedthat can provide access to such sources. (The Internet addresses cited here were accurate at the tirne of this writing, but keep in mind that they may have changed,) Data obtained h a m the Internet should be used with caution, however, for several reasons, One is that since there is virtually nt->limitation, legal or practhere are ""data" to be tical, on what can be placed on the Inter~~et, found there that rnay be l-righfy misleading, if not completely inaccurate. Probabiy the safest strategy would be to limit one" use of the Internet for research purposes to those sites that contain inforrnation such as government documents and standard reference books of the type one would find in the library. Second, although searching for data over the -Internet offers the advantage of not having to travel to a library, actually going to a research library (s~tchas most college and universitjr libraries), armed with the kind of background provided in this chapter, is likely to be mucl-r less tirne consuming than randornly searching Web sites. A major advantage of searching the Internet for data is the possibility of finding informatio~~ that is more up-to-date than printed data.

The Importance of Units of Analysis As the discussion of hypotl-reses and variables in Chapter 2, should have rnade clear, the choice of unit of analysis is vitally imporcam in planning a research project. This is especially true for research that relies on published data, as these data sources usually are organized by type of unit of analysis. Much of such data is reported by geographic or pc>litical units, such as nations, states, counties, municipalities, districts, cexisus tracts, and precincts, In planning a research project that will use published data, it is necessary first to make sure that the information is reported for the particular unit of analysis needed. Often a given reference book includes data on

Published Data Sozdrces

49

many different kinds of variables (economic, political, social) but only for a single kind of unit, such as stavs or cities. Tlzerebre, the presentation of major sources of data below is organized not only by the substantive type of data but also by the units for which the data are reported. The sowces suggested in this chapter are primarily of the type that would provide the information necessary for testing hypotheses, Fur exaxnple, if you wish to test a hypothesis about the relationship between the per capita income of nations and their level of voter turnout, you obviously need to find sources that report these data for a large number of nations, preferably almost all of tfzem, If you had to reiy on individual sources fur each nation, your search would be much more time consuming, and you might wel! find that different sources use somewhat different definitions. Hence the sources sugested here report data for many cases, and often for d l possible cases, Most published data relevant to political research are aggregate data, that is, they report summary figures on the population of geographic a r political units, Therefure, two reminders of points made in Chapter 2 might be useful here, First, one must be careful to avoid the ecological fallacy: Do not attempt to draw conclusions about individuals from aggregate data. Second, aggregate data usually are meaningf~rlonly if they are standardized in some way, such as in terms of percemges. Aggregate data ofren are akeady in an appropriate standardized form, but not always. Usually the researcher can convert the data into a useful form, such as by dividing a total by the population of the unit of analysis to produce the percentage or per capita figure, Most published data are aggregate, but soEBe are irtdividual, rnainly where tl-re individuals are not ordinary peopie. For example, dara on a number of personal characteristics of members of the U,S, Congress, including their individual votes on bills, is reacliity avaita bie, And "individuals" h the sense of unit of analysis can include goverilment agencies, political parties, corporations, and unions, to name only a few institutions o n which published data can be found. But in general, published sowces provide little i h r mation of relevance to political research about ordinary people as individuals, though there is a great deal about groups of per~ple. Therefore, it is sometimes necessary to collect such inlormation nor from a library but through an original survey, the methodoIogy of which is presented in Chapter 5.

Published Data .Sozarccs

50

The following sectiorzs of the chapter; arranged by type of inforrnation and unit of analysis, are intended to introduce you to a few of the published data sources frequently used in political science research; it is just a sampling to get you started, Note also that the sources Listed here are suggested only as places to find data. They would not be helpfwfin locating research findings or generally doing the background Iiterature review rlecessary to formulate a research question.

Strategies for Finding Data Sources The resorirce to which many students turn first to find idormation in a library is the subject catalttg, ALtbough this is an appropriate resource for finding books that discuss research topics, it is nut necessarily the most promising for locating data sources a n those topics. Many of the most important collections of data, such as the Statistical! Abstract of the United States (discussed below), include information on so many topics that not ail would be inc1w&d in the catalog, Jn additiorz, you will probably be interested only in a particular unit of analysis, such as states, so information on cities or nations would not be useful fc~ryou, Here are some tips that might lead you to what you need more quickly,

G i n Familiarity with Major SourceThe mare ftzmiliarity you have with the important sources, whether you read them it1 the library or at an Jnternet site, the easier your search will be. This chapter is intended to provide the begir~ningsof that familiarity, Given the way libraries are organized, when you find one reference sowce, you may well find similar and possibly mtrre useful sorzrces nearby

As was emphasized in Chapter I, it is importa~ltto review past research literature when fomulating your research questions and hypotheses. The Iiterature review is also useful for loating data, because you can see wl-rere otl-rers found their information. This tells you what was avaihabie and where it was found. However, to get

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this information, often you will. need to go to the original report, typically a journal article, rather than relying on a summar)r, such as you might find in a textbook, Even when you have located a reference source, you may need to check the origind source of its datca for more detailed information, suck as exactly how the variables were defined..

Consult Librarians or Other "Expert.(" When at a loss for where to find inforrnatiorz on a particnlar type of variable, consult the library staff, Most college and university libraries have personnel who specialize in different subject areas. Your questions are likely to be better received if you have thought out exactly what yori need, including the unit of analysis. But he receptive for sugestions on alternative indicators for your variables. Cansuiting the library staff may he particularly important when using U.S. government documents, because fibraries often catalog this material in different ways from other publications. Your iibrary also may have databases on CD-ROAMS,and some material rnay be available only 0x3 inicrotitm or micrt~ficlne,so advice frt~ma staff member is partict~larlyuseful for the uninitiated, Faculty members are mother source of expertise. They have a great deal of experience with subjects in their disciplir~esand rnay be able to point you directly to the source you need, Muck help is available if you ask far it, Take (rcurefgl Note of the Soulz-6.c You F h d

Once you do find information that may fill your research needs, be sure to write down just where you found it, including all of the information about the publication. This is important for two reasuns. First, you may need to consult tl-rat source again. Second, and more importailt, any research you present using those data will require a full citati~rzof the source, Recorditzg complete information is particularly important for Xnterrlet sites, Although bibliographic formats for citing electroilic sources have not yet been staildardized, it is certainly necessary to include the author (if available), the title, and tl-re date as well as tl-re exact site address and tl-re date you accessed it f Scott and Garrison 1998, 123-1241,

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Some General Data Sources A few sources encompass a number of categories of both types of data and r~nitsof ax~a'iysis.The Statistical A h ~ t r a c tof the United States, published annut~llyby the U.S. Department of Coxnmerce, demoincludes data o n a wide variety of variables-political, graphic, economic, artd social-for the United States as a whole and for tl-re fifty states as well as a limited amount of inforrnation on U.S. metropolitan areas, m 4 o r cities, and other nations. Although most of the information in the Statistical Abstract comes frorn the U,S. Brtreau of the Census and sther government agencies, it includes xnaterial lrom a wide variety ol private sources as well. Also worthy of melltion is the World Almanac, which has been privately published every year for over a century. The Wc~rld Almarrac reports information on an enorxnous nuxnber of topics, and the latest edition will include some information more recent than other published books. it is also the most widely available reference book, and is reasonably priced and sold on newsstands. The America~Sriazisdw I ~ d e xis a comprehensive guide to data found in inost U.S. g u v e m e n t publications. it allows searches by subject matter as well as by geogaphic, econoxnic, and demographic categories, Iatrrrret sit-f.:Fedstats is an on-line source that provides access to statistical reports from many U,S. governxnent agencieschttpz fedstats.gov>.

Demographic Data This section lists some sources of data on general population characteristics, incl~~ding economic and social indicators-data such as income, employment, race, age, literacy rates, and government spending, The sources are preselited in terms Of units of analysis reported,

For the world as a whole and the nations as units, the primary sources are publications by the United Nations. The most general source is the United Nations Yearbook. More detailed inforrnation can be found in other UN volumes such as the Demogmphk Y e ~ r hook, Sd-atzstz'cal "Yearbook, and UNESCO Statistical Yearbook,

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Note that the information on individual x~atior~s in these (and most other sources) is compiled from reports submitted by the governments of those nations. Therehre, it is always possible that there are considerable irraccuracies in solBe of the data, whether by design or by accident, A number of other international agencies publish statistics on naic The International Monetar). tions, particularly e c o n o ~ ~indicators. Fund (IMF) publishes the lnterniational Financial Sli;ltistics Yearbook. The Wc~rlciBank publishes the World Develczgf~entReport and World Tables. The Organization for Econt~micCooperation and Development ( QECD) publishes the annual Economic O~tloi>k. A number of private pubiications also report these kinds of data, usually drawing them from the more ofGcial sources, but often p=setitir-rgthem in a more convenient farm, Examples include the annual Sr~atennan'sYearbook, Polibicnl H a ~ d b o o ka f t h e World, and World Econo1.7.iricDafa.

U.S. States and LOL-alitZeS The most convenient and coxnprel-rensive source for dexnographic, cconoxnic, atld social data for staees is the S~.arislicalA ~ S L ~ofCthe I' United States, described earlier, The basic source of almost all U,S. demographic inhnnation is the US. Bureau of the Census, which reports it in a nurnber of publications. The census af the United States is conducted every ten years, and each census produces a set of vofu~nes.Two overall volumes cover the x~atior~ as a whole and by state: U.S. General Population ChariacteriPstics and U.S. Social and Economic Characteristiw, Separate volumes Eor each state provide more detailed breakdowns for units within the state, including counties and xnunicipaiities, Soxnewhat easier to use is the county and City Dat;a Book, which includes a number of widely used variables for all counties and larger cities in every state, and the State and Metropolitan Area Data Book, which contains similar data for those units. Intt.rrlet size: The site fc~ron-line cetisus data is qhttp: cesus. gov>. Privately published reference books for demc~graphicdata on states and units within them include the Alfifanac of the Fifty States and Katlzleen 0, Morgan" State R ~ x n k i ~ g ~ , A list of scjurces for c~thernatiotls can he found in The Statistiat Abstract of the Ul-zitsd States,

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Political and Governmenr;ll Data for Nations This section lists a few sources of infc~rmationabout the governmental structure and politics fcjr a large number of nations. This sort of data is generally not found in United Nations publications, which are, as noted earlier, based on information reported by the rlations themselves. This is particularly true of indicators that might be used to measure variables such as political instability, democracy, and civil liberties, h a n g the possibfe sources that report some of this political information are the Politic~alHandbook of the World, World Enclyclopedia of Political S y s t e t ~ sand Parties, the Statesman's Yearbook, and the Ipzfernational Yearbook and Statesman2 W h o S W h o . Particularly valuabie for its data 0x1 variabies such as assassinations, politicai rights, and irregular executive transfers is Charles L, Taylor and David A, Jodice, World Handbook o(Politic7al and S o c i ~ Irtdiccltors, l Williarn D, Cr>plin and Mictzael M. O'Leary3 Political Risk Yearbook, offers up-to-date assessments and predictions about likely political and economic conditioils in all nations, Of considerable interest to students of international politics are data on milicary and defetlse activities. Sources for this sort of data include Ruth Silvard, World Military and Soczal Expenditures, Wcjrld Military Expendztures and Arms Transfers, World Arufamct3nts and Disl-krmanzct3n;ls Yearbook, and Military Balance. The largest collection of international voting results data is Thornas T. Mackie and Richard Rose, The l~ternatiulzalAlmanac oJ Electoral History, Kenneth janda" Political Parties contains data evaluating parties and related topics for fifty-three nations,

Data an U.S, Government and Politics This section lists a few of the most useful sources for finding infarmation on the branches of the U,S, federal government as well as state and loca1 units. One geileral, though hardly compreheilsive, source is Harsld W Stanley and Richard 6..Nierni, Vi;t~alStatbfics 0%A~ntrricnvrPolilics, wl~ickiis designed for undergraduate students.

Congre-~s and the Presidency As American political scientists have probably devoted more time to studgillg the U.S. Congress than any other institution; a vast

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xiumber of sources of data are available 0x1 the two houses, their members, and the districts tl-rey represent, The mast basic source for Coltgress is the Cclrzgressional Record, published every day Cotigress is in session. The Congressiovtisf Record reports everything said on the floor (and text that is inserred "into the record'" but was not said) as well as all of the votes cast by individual members. However, the Congrwstonal Record is large and not particularly well organized, and a nurnber of private publications are usuall); more useful for most research projects. The mtlst important referefices on C~ngressare the vario~zspublications of Corlgressional Quarterly, Inc. The basic source is the C Q Weekly Report, which includes news stories on what is l-rappening in Congress and in gowmmeitt and politics generally as well as the votes of each member on biifs and important procedural questions, If your research deals with past years, the annual Congressio~alQuar&rly Ajmanac compiles much of the weekly information systematically, The biennial Pi?l'itics in America provides profiles of mernbers m d el-reir districts, Cortgress alzd the N i l t i o ~is a set of books that compiles information over many years. Congressional: Quarterly has long provided measures such as the presidential support score, a measure of how often Congress has agreed with the administration. A competing weekly publication is the Nationai Jourvtal, which is similar to CQ Weeky Report but concentrates sornewhat rnore on. the executive branclt. To track down the content and status of hills currently under consideration, the researcher may consult a Commerce Ctearing House publication, the Congressional Index. There are malty other private publications on Congress. Particularly useful is the bienxiial Al-ma~zacofA8"tterican Politics, which includes personal data on every member of Congress, their votes, their districts, their campaign finances, and ratillgs of their voting records by interest groups. John F. Bibby and Norman J, Ornstein's Vital Statkttcs Co15gressassembles many useful sets of variables. More detailed data on campaign finance may be found in the Almanac of Federat' PACs arid Larry Makinsoxi arid Joshua Coldstein, Open Secre&: The DolEur Power of PACs in Coggress, The ultimate source fur the data on congressional. districts that appear in maliy of the aforementioned sources is a publication of the U.S. B~lreauof the Census called Population arzd Housing Characteristics far Congressional Districts, which presents data in separate volumes for each state,

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Many of the sources cited above for Crjngress, such as the CQ Weekly Report and the A l ~ ~ a n aare c also very useful far information on the presidenr. Other sources include Coilgressional Quarterly's Guide t o the Presiderscy and Lyn Ragsdale, Viul Statistics ciln the Presidency. I ~ t e r n e tsites: Information on the two houses of Congess, including documents and votes fc>r recent years, may be forzlxd at ~I-xttp://uvww.clerkwetn.X~otlse.g~vr and tesfOr federal offices and governor by county. America at the Polk does the same at the state level for tile earlier years of the twentieth century. Walter Dean Ballots, 2 8.36-1 842 has presidential results Bumham" Preszde~~iclJ by counties, The World Alrntzrt~zcprovides county-by-county returns for recent presidential elections, Many of the general sources cited above, including the Satistical Al~stract,also provide some state-level data. Results for state and focal elections are rnore problematic. Most state governments publish reports on each election for statewide and state legislative elections for the district and county level. For

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smaller llnits, such as wards and precincts, typically one must turn to Local sources, Sometimes election results are published in local newspapers shortly after the election. But for precinct returns it may well he necessav to go to the city or csunty office responsible h r administering elections to obtain such inbrmation, Tf you are contemplating a project that would require such localized election data, it is especially important to make sure that the data can be obtained before proceeding any further,

Survey Data Although political science research frequently relies on survey data, most researchers are nat in a position to conduct their own surveys on a large scale and must instead make use of the results of surveys conducted by others. The largest body of pubtished survey resuits is fc~undin the American Public Q p i ~ i o nIndm and the accompanying Americiarl P ~ b l i cOpirtion Datu, which begin with l 9 8 l data. The Igdex is just that, a topically arrangcd list of survey questions, To find out the answers to a question cited in the I ~ d e xone , must then consult the D a t ~ a, microfiche collection of survey reports from a wide variety of sources. A number of other sources are available, The Gallup Poll publishes The Ciallup Report (monthly since X 53651, which provides a breakdown of the responses to each question by a standard set of demographic variables. The Galiap Poil is a set of volumes going hack to X935 reporting all Gallup surveys in a more limited form* Elizabeth Hann Hastings and Philtip K, Hastings" Igdex to International Publr:c O p i ~ i o n(annual since 1978) reports surveys from the United States and many other nations, Floris W moll% A AAnzeric~~z ~ Profile reports results from a nurnber of questions repeated from 1972 to 1989 in surveys by the Natioilai Opinion Researcfr Genter, Although published results of srtrveys from sources such as those cited above are necessarily aggregated, they can be used as sources of data for research designs that compare the results of different e s this type of research include the many analysurveys. E x a ~ ~ p l of ses of how presidential popularity changes over time je.g+, Mueller 1973; Edwards 1983). There is also a body of research that uses results of surveys from many sources and coi~birtesthis with data on governxnent policy decisions to assess the relationship between public opinion and public policy (e.g., Page and Shapiro 1983; Mor~roe$5398).

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Jatenzet site: Recent survey results from the Gallup Poll may be found at . Otl~ersites include the Princetoil Srrrvey Research Center *1http:Nwww.pri~-~~etc1n~edul-ahe1sc~nl index>, The Qdu~rtXnstitute at the University of North Carolina , the Roger Center , and the Social Science Data Archives-Nl"ortt-2 Arrterica .=http:llwww,nsd.uib.no/cessda/namer, htrnlz. The National Election S t ~ ~ d i ediscussed s, below, may be consulted at *~http://www~umi&,ed~-nes;.. Political scientists also make considerable use of the individuai responses to surveys conducted by others, thus allowing them to test hypotl-reses about individual behavior. Indeed, a Iarge part of the research oil voting behavior in the United States since 19413 is based on the National Election Studies ( N E S )conducted every two years by tl-re Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan, Data files containing the answers gven by individual respondents to each of these extensive surveys are distrib~zted through the Inter-University Cansortiurn for Political and Social Research (ECPSR), an organization to which most uiliversities and many colleges belong, The TCPSR also archives the results of hundreds of other surveys as well as other data sets, all available in computer-readable form, The ECPSR representative at a member institution should be contacted for frrrther information, The complete set of NES survey data from 1948 to 199"7s available on CD-RO:V.

Content Analysis The sources cited in the previous sections provide information that is already in the fcjrm rleeded for data analysis s r can be turned into a data set relatively easily, But often researchers in the social sciences wish to make use of information structured very differently, such as the text of speeches, news articles, or o t h e r documents, Is it possible to analyze such material in the same objective and systematic way as aggregate data, including the use of statistical analysis? Xn fact it is. Textual data can be analy zed quantitatively througl-2 content analysis. This method has been defined as "any technique fir m~zkirzg i n f ; ? r ~ rby ~ ~objectively e~ am! sysztmnticc7EEy identif5ti~zgspecified cCf~7racteristics of messdges" "erelson 19"7it), Content: analysis is mast ctmmoniy associated with published verbal texts, but can also be used in conjunction with answers to spen-ended q~zestionson surveys.

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Content analysis was developed in the early twentieth century and was first used for the analysis of newspapers, Later it was applied t o propaganda, particularly during World War II. It has been used by researchers in many fields, including literature, [inguistics, history, cornxnunications, and education as well as all of the social sciences.. Examples from pc-~liticaiscience include the analysis of diplomatic messages (North et a1, 1963), speeches by presidents, and political party platforms (Pomper 19&0),and countless studies of news media content (e.g., Patterson f 980; Robinson and Sheehax~$983). Content analysis is a valrtable research tool that should not be overir~okedin planning a research project. It is obviausly appropriate and often essential if the research question deals with content itself, such as the question of whether news coverage of a political caxnpaign is biased. But content analysis is also valuable as an indirect measure in situations where more direct observational methods camot be used. For instance, we cannot interview the popniation from past generations, but we can systexnatically analyze what they wrote in speeches, letters, Ilewspapers, and other documerrts. Content analysis is a datld collection method, not a type of research design. Indeed, content analysis can be used in conjunction with any of the research designs presented in Chapter 3, All of the usual stages in the research process apply when ~zsingcontent analysis, but some deserve particular ernpl-rasis. One is the importance of having a clear theoretical framework, research question, and hypotheses, These are highly advisable for any kind of research, but they are particularly important wl~enplanning content analysis, because faiiure to d o so could mean that the whole process of analyzing a large amount of textual material is wasted effort, The steps that must be taken in a content analysis are the same as those in any other scientific investigation, but they have some slightiy different twists,

Steps in Content Analysis In the following explanation, content analysis will he illustrated with the example of a simple research yuestion: Do newspapers give better coverage to incumbent candidates than to challe~~gers? This question rnight produce two hypotheses. One is that newspapers tend to give more coverage to incumbent candidates far local office, and the other is that newspapers tend to give more favorsthle

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coverage tct incumbents, These hypotheses csuld be tested with a correlational design, We would also need to control for other potentially relevant variables, such the party affiliation of each candidate for the eoffices we are studying.

Define the Population We must first define tl-re population, that is, specify the b o b of content to which we wiSh t o 6r(?~em&e.In our example, we are obviously interested in newspaper stories about candidates, but in which newspapers-air newspapers, all daily papers, only papers with a circulation over a certain number, papers in a single state, or only one particular paper? Our decision would be based on the arnourlt of time and effort we can devote to the content analysis as well as on how accessible the papers are to us, In tl-ris case we can, as discussed below, define a Iarge: population-say, all daily newspapers in the United States with a circulation of over 50,000-and then take a sample of that population-say, a random sample of twenty of those newspapers. Since we are not interested in everything prirtted irt those papers, we must specify wllat kind of stories we will analyze. For our example, we might: select all stories about candidates in any general elections for courltJr offices. Finallj~~ we must specify the time period to he c m ered, In this example, it miglzt be from May to the Novernkr election in a particular year.

Sele6.t the liecording Unit The recording unit is not necessarily the same as tl-re unit of analysis that the hypotl-resis would seem to imply. Rather, it is the segFEent of content for which data o n the variables wilE be collected.. Trr this respect, content analysis is s o ~ ~ e w hdifferent at from other data coIlection metl~ods,because verbal texts can be divided several different ways. The smallest recordirlg unit in content analysis is the word. We can do frequency counts on the occurrence of individual words, such as how many times an individual's name is me.tltioned, However, the context in which a word is used is so important that longer units are frequently needed. f econd, tl-rere is the sentence (or possibly the i~ldepelldentclause in a compound sentence). Each e r variables. P o ~ ~ p e r serltence could be classified o n a n u ~ ~ b of

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(1980) used the sentence as a unit in his analysis of Republican and Democratic platforrns froxn 1948 to 1 976, The must commonly used recording unit is the item, meailing a whofe unit of communication. What constitutes an item can vary greatly depending on the type of comxnunication being studied. With newspapers, the story is typically selected; in news broadcasts, it would also be the story or sqmsnt. An analpis of television entertainment programs, such as one investigating the axnount of violence depicted, might well use the program as the recording unit. Although an item can be of any length, far most purposes very long iterns, such as whole books, are problematic because of the difficulty of classifying such large bodies of content, Another possilsle unit is the theme, A theme is rather bard to define; it might be described as any occurrence of a particular idea that we are interested in. Themes might be used as recording units in analyzing, h r example, a single book, but more typically we woufd record the occurrence and frequency of a particular theme within each recording unit. These examples are just a sampling of the ways verbal content can be divided for the purposes of analysis. The choice of unit depends greatly on tl-re type of content to be analyzed as well as on the research question to be investigated. In the example of newspaper coverage of local elections, we would select each story about candidates for coumy office as our recording unit,

Identfi and Operationully Defi~zethe Variables Next come the variables. In our two hypotheses, the independent variable is whether the candidate was an i~~cumbent or a challenger. The dependent variables are the quantity of coverage and the quality of coverage, But there are several ways to operationalite each, and we might wish to use more than one. The qutlntity of coverage is an exaxnple of a st-iuctural characteristic of a message, a relatively objective and unambiguous variable. We can measure the quantity of newspaper coverage in terms of the nurnber of words or the 1errgtl-r of the story in coluxnn inches. Broadcast news stories are usually measured in terms of time, that is, minutc;s and seconds. The length-of-.story measure we select becomes our operational definition of quantity In our newspaper example, we might find it useful to measure other strucrural attributes as well, such as whether the story

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appeared on the front page or whether it was accompanied by a picture of the candidate, We would also need to record wl-rich candidate and office was the subject of the story, and it would be advisable to keep a record of which newspaper it appeared in, the date, and the page number, if only to rnake it possiHe to check for errors in data collection. VVe would have to know, preferably in advance, who a11 of the possible candidates were and which were incumbents. The other dependent variable, quality of coverage, involves the sgbstarttive characteristics of a message. We might attempt simply to classify each campaign story as positive or negative toward the candidate, but tl-ris can be difficult to do, More useful would be first to specify the catqories we will use to evaluate each story, After reading a good number of stories, we could identifr the cornrnon categories of commentary about local candidates-experience, persmai attributes, partisanship, and issues, plus the inevitable "iotf-ter.'"ach of these categories would then be subdivided into comments that were positive, negative, and neutral toward the candidate in question, We should then attempt to specify the kind of wc~rdsand phrases that would qualify for each subcategory, For example, ""hoesty" would be a positive persona! referetlee,

Sample the Pop# lution Whetl-rer or not we Ir~okat all of the content in the population we have defined is a question of how much time and other resources are available, In our example, we have already decided t o look at a sample of twenv daily newspapers, hut we might not have the resources to analyze all of the local campaign stories over a sixmonth period, Instead we c m take a random sample of those stories. Randonl sampling is discussed in Chapter S in connection with survey research, but with content analysis it is usually a simple process, as we usually can identify all of the possible text materid and specify where to find it, In tlze case of these newspapers, we know that they are published each day, so we could take a random sample of thirty days from each paper, either by using a random rlumher table or simply by taking every sixth day. (It would not be advisable to take every seventll day, as that would give us the same day of the week every time.)

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Glkect the D a t ~ We would then be ready to go through the selected issues of the newspapers. It would be advisable to prepare a form for the data collection, such as a sheet of payer that lists each variable, including all categories of the quality of the coverage, We would record that inlormation for each story we found about a local catrtpaignthis is referred to as coding. There are two ways to record the data on the various categories c>f pc~sitiveand negative coverage, One is simply to record whether or not there were any rekrences such as, for exmple, positive comrrtents on experience, Slightly more time consuming, but more valual>le, would be to record the rlttmber of rekrences in each category, When we have finally gone through all of the selected newspapers and csded all of the relevant data, the information from our coding sheets can be entered into an appropriate computer program for analysis.

Analyze the Data It is now passible to test our hypotheses. The metl-rods of statistical analysis to be used wilt be described in later chapters, but we can preview some of' it now. Data prc~ducedby content analysis, like m y other data, can he evaluated in two general ways. First of all is frequency analysis, anotl-rer name for univariate sta~istics (Chapter 4 ) . Tjfpically this entails simply tabulating how often different variables occur, In our example, frequency analysis would tell us such things as how much coverage the newspapers gave to the local campaigns and the extent to which it concentrated on the different categories of evaluation, such as issues and experience, But CO test our hyyocheses, we would have to perfor~n contingency anafysis, which is another name fur multivariate statistics (Chapters 8 a1-d 9). Contingency analysis wt~uldenable us to coxnpare incumbent candidates and challengers on the quantity of coverage each received, as measured both in the number of stories artd in their length in column inches, as well as the quality, as rneasured by the number of positive and negative comments each received. We could also control for the party of the candidate and the particular office being contested (Chapter 50).These analyses could be conducted for each newspaper as well as for tl-re sample as a whole.

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Issues in Content Analysis An inherent problem in any content analysis, particularly that of the substantive varieth is objectivity. A decisiorz as to whether or not a particular word or phrase fafis into one of our categories is often somewhat subjective, that is, it may depend on the personal j~ldgmentof the person dt.,intg the coding at that moment. Although this problexn cannot be avoided entirely, there are some steps that can be taken to minimize it. First of all, this is particularly a problem when several people are intvolved in the data collection. The solution is to have more than one person csde the same subsample of text and then compare their resuits to see whether they coded the same material in the same way, The extent of the similarity of their decisions is called intercoder reliability and can be evaluated by several statistical measures. Even if one individual will be doing all of the data colfection, the same approach could be used by having several other people code some of the same material to see if there are any subjectivity probfexns. It is also important to make as clear as possible what kinds of words and phrases should be included in each category Finally, when the results of the content analysis are presented, it is important to include as many examples as possible of how actual statements were coded. 1st using content analysis, as with many other methods of dam collection, it is val~lableto incorporate data from different sources. This is particularly important when a content analysis seeks to draw conclusions about the effects of communications. Thus researchers such as 13atterson (1980) and Graber (1988) have combined surveys of individuals with content analysis of the news coverage to which their responderlts were exposed. Pomper (1380) not only used the content analysis of party platbrxns to catalog the promises rnade by the parties hut also used documentary sources to determine the extent to which those promises were fulfilled in later years.

Exercises Answers to the exercises follow, It is suggested that you attempt to formulate solutions before fookirrg at the answers,

Follt~witlgare several variables that might appear in hypotheses. For each, one, the unit of analysis is given, Your task is to devise an

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operational definitiorl based olx a published data source, This datca source should be one that would provide the information for all or most of the possible cases. The exact data source should he cited with csmplete bibfiogragflic information. fn order to do this, it is necessary to actually look at that source to see exactly what informa tion is available.

1. The levei of mass political participation in U,S, states 2. Milit21ry spending of a nation 3. Liberalism of a U.S. representative's voting record 4. Economic development of a nation 5. f uccess of a U.S. president in dealing with Congress

Propose a research design using content analysis that could be used to investigate the research questions 'Tb what extent have American party platlorxns increased their attention to the problexn of crime over the years?" a d 'TElave Republican platforms given mtrre attention to crime than Democratic platfC~rmshave?"

Suggested Answers to Exercises

1. The percentage of the population eighteen years of age and older in each state castiw votes for presidential electors in 1996. Source: US. Bureau of the Census, Statktical Abstruct of the U ~ i t e dStates, 3998 (Washinrgton, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1998), 298. 2 , Military expenditures as a percentage of each nation" grc~ss national product in 1996 (or latest year available). Source: Ruth Leger Sivard, World Military arzd Sockl Expendilures, 1996 (Washington, DC: Wcjrld Pric~rities,19961,

45-47, 3. The rating given to each representative's voting record by the interest group Americans for Democratic Action in 1994, Source: Michaei Barc~neand Grant If~ifusa,The Almanac of Amertcapl Politics 2000 (Wi;nshington, BC: Nationai Journal, 1 9 9 ) . (Data on individual representatives are found throughout the bhook.)

66

Published Data .Sozarccs

4. The per capita gross domestic p r o d u ~ tJGDP) of each nation. Source: The World Almarzac and Book of Facts, 2 999 ( IWalnvvah, NJ: Wc~rldAimatlac Books), 760-861, 5. Averai&-epercentage total Mouse and Senate concurrence. Source: t;yn Ragsdale, Vi;taE Statktz'cs the Presidency, revised edition (Washington, DG: Congressional Quarterly, 1998f, 390-391. (These data are available only from 1953 on,)

The hypotheses to he tested could he that parties have gven more attetltion to crime since 1980 than they did in the 1960s and 19";;"s and that Republican platforms tend to give more attention to crime than Dcrnocratic piathrms, The unit of analysis would he the Reprtblican and Democratic platforms since 1960, the texts of which can be found in the annual Congrassictnal Quarterly Alitnnnrlc fsr each presidential election year and also in tl-re CQ Weekly Report after each national party convention, The content analysis could be conducted in several, ways. The recording unit could be the sentence, in which case one wauld count the number of sentetlees in which some reference to crime appears, Alternatively, (me could count the number of times the word "crime" (m a synonym) aypears or xneasure the length of the sections deaIi13g with crime (in words, lines, or inches). Whatever method is used, the measureEnent should be standardized, that is, computed in comparison to the total number of sentences, words, lines, or inches, This is important because party platforms vary in length, generally increasing over the years. If these data were collected, it would then be possible to calculate whether relatively more attention was given to criine in later platforms than earlier and whether there was a differelice between the politicai parties.

Survey Research

Survey research, also called ""polling,'kea~~s t i l k i ~ ga sample o f a l ~ q e popuhtiort, r asking qzresgiorrs, arsd recordi~gthe a;rzswers. Survey research is a such a cornrnon rnetliod of data coIXection-it is used not only in social science research hut also in political campaiglls and market research-that understanding how it is conducted is valuable for everyone, Survey interviews are used for large samples of the general population as weil as far specialized g r o u p such ;I$ hofders of govertlrrtent pr>sitions.The logic of sampling is tl-re same wl-retlzer one is selecting citizens for a survey, laboratory animals for experimental and control groups, or anything else.

Sampling Since researchers are us~talIIyinterested in drawing conclusions about poyuiatitlns that are so large that it would be impossible to interview ail of the individud members, they ~zsesamples. People sarnetimes express doubt that estimates based on only a tiny fraction, perhaps 2,000 out of a population of 209 million, can be accurate, but they usually are. Altkotlgh this is derntrnstrated by long experience with surveys, such as election predictions, tl-re rationale far savnplil~gis mathematical, based on probability theory Suppose you were faced with the task of determining the relative number of red m d black marbles in a very large basket. Tf you lcroked at only a single marble, that would tell you very little, If you started to draw more marbles out of the basket, a pattern would

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tend to emerge. By the time you had drawn 100 marbles, the percentages of red and black would resemble those of the whole basket. As the sample pew, the proportions would remain fairly constant hut would come closer and closer to the proportions of the total. For accuracy, however, this process must be free of bias, The researcher cannot select more marbles of one color on purpose, and the basket should be well mixed beforehand. Such considerations are necessary to assure a ""random sample." Note that the results are a matter vf chance, Even if the basket is evenly divided in color, it is possible to draw a sample of ten red marbles or even a bunclred, and no black marbles, tkorrgh that is extremely unlikely. The paint of this example is that if sufficiently Large random samples are taken horn a populatitril, they will rend to approximate the characteristics of that population. Furthemore, the dis~fibutionof these samples takes the form of a normal disfl'ibaidkn-a bell-shaped curve-which allows us to estimate the accuracy of a given sample, The larger the sample size, the emore accurate the measurement is likely to be, Table 5,1 illustrates this principle. The column t~eaded "95% Confidence Interval" &sht>wsthe maximum amouilt of error a sample would make 95 percent of the time. In other words, for a sample of 1,000, we could be 9.5 percent sure that a sample would be off by no more than 3.1 percentage points in either direction. If we were taking a survey of how people had voted in an election in which the total vote was 5.5 percent Republican, then a saxnple of 1,000 should almost always come out between about 52 and $8 percent Republican. (On average-----S0percent of the time-we would expect to not be off' more than about one percentage point.) Note that the figures in Table 5.1 are based on several assumptions, the most important of which is that a simple random sample is used. A frequently asked question is ""How large should a sample be?" As nc~tedabove, the ailswer is ""the larger the better," "but this requires some qualification. As Figure 5.1 shows, the relationship between sarnple size and accuracy is not a straight line. Increasing the size of small samples considerably increases accuracy, but the relative gains di~ninishwith larger samples. (This relationship occurs because the amount of sampling error is proportional to the square root of sample size,) I-fowever, the considerable costs of survey research are directly proportional to the number of interviews conducted. Hence even well-financed commercial surveys rarely exceed 2,000 cases unless there is some special need, such as a desire to ~ b t a i naccurate trteasurernents for sultsamples of the population.

Survey Research

69

TABL,E S , I Sample Size and Accuracy

Sample stzc

95% Confidence Xntervai f

NOTE: These figures assuxne simple rarldorn samplir~gfrom an it&nitely large population of a characteristic lzeltl by one-half the poptlfation.

Keep in mind also that the ranges sl-rown in Table 5.1 are what could be considered the ""maxixnuxn error," that is, nineteen tixnes out of twenty (another way of expressing 95 percent), the survey wiII be more accurate than the intervat s h o w . SampIes of a few hundred or even fewer c m be quite useful for many research yurposes. One factor that makes little difference is the size of the population from which the sarnple i s drawn. It i s true that a saiinpie of any given size taken from a single city wifL be more accurate than one drawn from the whole world, bm unless the sample size is one half or more of the population size, the gain in accriracp is very small. Sampling can he dune in several different ways. A simple or pure rundvm siznzpk i s a sample taken by a inethod ensuring that each mgnzber of a population has an equal chance of be&wselected, If we have a list of all of the members of a population, then there are many ways of selecting such a sample. ff our population is the students enrofted at a particular university, tl-zen we could number them and use a random llunlber table to select the needed sample; a csEnputer csuld readily perform the same frznction, The name of each student could be placed on a slip of paper and the saxnpie drawn from tbe figurative hat. A variation that produces essentially the same result is the systemtic sr-znzpk, in which a random start-

Survey R wearch

70

FIGURE 5.1 Sall-tple size and accuracy

0

20f2

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

90f2

1,000

Sample size

ing point is used and then every tenth name (or every hundredth, or whatever ir-rcrement is needed) is chosen, In short, if a list of the members of a population is available, it is easy to select a random sample, Hawevet; if the sample is to be drawn from the general population of the nation, or even h0117 a particular city, such lists are not available, Becmse of that and other practical considerations, mul~Y was developed for large surveys using pertistage C ~ B S ~ LsampI2'ng sonal interviews. Cluster sampling involves sampling of geographic areas dawn to the city block, resulting in the selection of a nuxnber of '"clusters" around the country where interviewing is done. Fur technical reasons, cluster sampling is somewhat less efficient than pure random saxnpling, so a survey that employs it, such as the Gallup poll, needs a sampIe of as many as 1,500 respondents to achieve the accuracy level of a pure random sample of I,OQQ, Large-scale telephone surveys that use random digit dialing, whereby tellephoile numbers are randomly coilstructed from the range of possible n~zmbers,actually use a fcjm of cluster sampii~~g of area codes and exchanges. Random and cluster samples arc both probabiIity samples, that is, ezier3l case in the popcejatiorz has ia know%cltlia~ceof selectiarz, A number of other methods are used that Qanot meet tl-ris test. In the "street corner sample99heinterviewer stands in a public piace and questions whoever will stop, Jn the ""strawpoll," individuals select

Survey Research

71

themselves to be respondents. One versiorz of the fatter is the practice of encouraging people to pl-rone in to express their opinions. Neither of these has any guarantee of relative accuracy, and they are not used for serious research, academic or athewise, The "exit polls'konducted by journalists on election day, in which iilterviewers approach people leaving the pc~llingplace, may appear to be a variation of ""street corner sampling," but they avoid tile usual bias of chat ayyroacl~in that everyone wl-ro is voting that day (aside from those casting absentee ballots) must leave a polling place. By sampling precincts and usinrg a predetermined formula br what proportion of voters should be approached, it is possible to select a reasona bly representa tive sample. The exit polls conducted by the television networks since 1980 appear t o be highly accurate, at least in their estimates of election outcomes.

There are two ways that people can be asked questioils, and each is commonly done by two different methc~ds,In intervieweradmir~istered surveys, the interviewer reads the question and records tile response, This can be done in a personal (or Eace-toface) interview, usually in the respondent's home, or over the telephone. Personal interviews are generally considered to result in a higher quality of measurement than telephone interviews, Respondents in personal interviews have been found to be somewhat rnore at ease, to understand questions better9 and to be rnore likely to express preferences. Personal interviews can he longer than telephone interviews, and visual displays can be shown to the respondent.. However, personal interviews conducted by going door-to-door are extremely expensive, and so most surveys in recent decades have been done by telept~one,Some degree of bias is built into this metl-rod, since some people do not have telephones, but today tl-ris is a relatively small problem, Telephc~nesurveys also offer the advantages being conducted more quickly, presenting fewer problems of access (such as respondents unwilling to open their doors to strangers), a i d allowing more callbacks to households where 110 one was horrte, in c ~ ~ l f p a r i with s ~ n personaI interviews. An alternative rneans of conducting a survey is the selfadministered srarvq, in which the respondent reads the questions and records his or her own answers. One problem with this

72

Survey R wearch

method is that a significant proportion of the adult population of the United States (as high as 30 percent by soxne estimates) has a low reading level. This mealls that some pote~ltialrespondents will not he able to resyo~rdat all to a self-.administered questionnaire, and many otl-rers will be reluctant to do so or not understand the q uestions, One method of conhcting self-administered surveys is to mail the questionnaires out and hope that the respondents return them. The great disadvantage of this approach is that response rates are typically very fow. The I o w a the response rate, the greater the probable bias in sample selection. Those who do choose to parricipa~einay well be different from tl-rose who do not; for example, they may he those with more intense feeli~lgs about the survey's general, topic* Respo~~se rates can be increased by including a cash payment or calling respondents to encourage their participation, but such steps erode the cost advantages of self-admirristered surveys. The self-administered survey also has a potential sarnpling problem, In a well-done mail survey, questionnaires are sent by first class inail addressed to a specific respondelrt. However, since cssrtplete lists ot the general population are not available, the mait survey is not a good approach far this population, Mail surveys can be mtrre useful in researching specialized populations, such as members of an organized group or occupation. In these circuxnstances a list of the population is available and those sampled Iikeiy have greater interest and possi hly a hove-average reading levels, feadirlg to higher response rates. Even tl-ren, a well-done mait survey requires sending one or more additional waves of surveys and followup reminders to those who have not responded, and the project will necessarily take several weeks or months. Another common method o f conducting a self-administered survey is to use a captive pupulatiurz, that is, a group that is assembled for soxne other purpose and over whom the researcl-rer has some millimal control. The most common example would be a classroom of stndelrts. People attending a meeting and employees on the job are other possibilities. The advantage of using a captive population is that it is inexpensive. The great disadvantage is that this method can never resuit in a random sample or even a representative sample of the whole population, However, it can be quire useful if the research question deals with a specific group whose members are available and willing to filf out a survey questionnaire.

Survey Research

Writing Survey Items The most critical step in survey research is writing the questions, or i&ms, to be presented to respondents, There are two basic types of questions: close~d-ended,in which respondents are given all of the possible answers, and oj>en-encklrl',in which respondents are given a more general question and asked to articnlate their own answers. Most surveys consist of closed-ended items. This is nut because closed-ended questions are better measurements, but becase they are easier and less costly to administer, process, and analyze, The case can be made that open-ended questions are often better h r xneasuring tile opinions, attitudes, and concerns of respondents. Most pe[~PIwvvilf make choices on long lists of typical yes-or-no questions even if they have no prekrevices 017 those topics. But i f they are given open-ended items, their real feelings can be expressed. The problem with open-ended items is that it is more difficult far the intenriewer to record the responses and fc~rthe analyst to classify the responses into categories for tabulation, The latter process is actually a form of content analysis, discussed in Chapter 4. Closed-ended items can take a variety of kxrns, with the yes-orno, agree-or-disagree, or other dichotoxnies being tl-re simplest, In an effort to measure more precise degrees of intensity, more complex sets of choices can be ~zsed,for example, '"Bo you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree?" When it is possible to show visual aids to respondents, various kinds of visual scales can be employed, in whch respondents indicate where along the scale their opinions fall, Whatever the format, the answers to a closedended question should meet two criteria: They must be mutanaliy exclusive and collectzvely exhaustive. In other words, the axlswers sl-roufd not overlap, and the categories must cover alt possibilities, so that anyone's opinion would fall into one of them, There are a number of common prohle~xlsin the csnstructio~~ of survey items, These are summarized in Box 5.1 along with examples and how the problems might be corrected. (Mditional examples can be ft2und in the exercise at the end of this chapter.) One of the most important considerations is that respotlitlmts m11st be competent to answer a question. This means that there is a reasoElable expectation that most of the population to be saiixlyled has some howledge of the subject matter and terminoiogp to be used. Asking members of the general public whether they favor passage of House Resolution 1314 is silly, even if the resolution refers to a

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Survey R wearch

prominent issue. However, it is permissible and often advisable to present a surnmary of a proposal before asking about preferences. In this way, all respondents are being asked about the same subject. Another technique is to use a flter questiorr?whereby respondents are first asked whether they are familiar with a topic, The problem of competency arises not only with technical knowledge, but even with personal: knowledge, as we cannot assume that most people know such things as tfte amount of incorne tax their family paid last year or the population of their own community. An obvious requisite is to avoid crsing any binsed or e~fotionali kangzkiage in survey questio~ls.The choice of wording should be as neutral as possible so that tfte phrasing of the question does not sway the respo~ldentto one side. Asking whether the death pellalty should be used for ""bloodthirsty killers who torture their innocexit victims" is inappropriate and unnecessary. Although such extreme emotionalism is ntjt iikely to be used, the problem of bias can be lntrre subtle when any csntroversial individual or gri~upis unnecessarily introduced into a question, such as associating a political figure with a substanthe policy proposai, A common pitfall in writing survey items is failure to avoid leading questions-items that f2il to present all of the possible alternatives. If we ask respondents only, ""Do you agree with this prop o s a l l ' k e are ""leading'9hern into a positive response, F-fence it is necessary to include phrases such as ""d you agree or disagree," "Id0 you f a v ~ r[or oppose,'" "would you say we should or should lot," Because some respondents are eager to agree with an interviewer, it is especialty irnparcant to xnake clear that negative responses are acceptable, Most surveys do not customarily present (ino opinion" to the respondent as a possible choice, but interviewers should always be ready to accept it as a response and not attempt to force a choice. 111 survey questions, short and s i m l e items are best, Tf a question is long and coxnplicated, it is harder for the respondent to understand what is Lteing asked, Admittedly, some topics are more complicated a1-d require more exylartation, hut the solution in such cases is to set forth the details, in several sentences if necessary, and then ask a simple yrrestion, h o t h e r rule is to rrever stutc qmestions in the negative. For exaxnple, asking ""Do you agree or disagree that the United States should not reduce its contributirons to the United Nations?" is likely to he csnfusing to the respondent,

BOX 5.1 Rtrfes for Writing Survey Iterns, with Examples

2 , Respondent must be competent to answer. Wrc)ng:" D o ycju think Section 14-B of the I947 TaftHartIey Act should be repealed or not?" Better: ""At the present time, states can prohibit contracts that require w r k e r s to join a ~znion.Wc3uld you favor or oppose taking away a state" power to prohibit such contracts?

2. Avoid biased or emotiorzal language. Wro~sg:"Do you favor or oppose the United States continu-

ing to waste your hard-earned tax dollars on foreign aid?9' Better: " D o you think that the aEnount of money the United States spends on foreign aid should he increased, decreased, or remain the same?"

3. "Avoid leading questions. Wro~sg: you agree tlzat there should he term lixnits for all elective c~ffices? " Better: " D o you agree or disagree with the idea that there sl-routd be term limits for all elective offices?" 4, Short and simple questions are best. Wrong: "Would you favor or oppose the idea that all empir~yersbe required to provide health insurance for all their employees meeting certain minimum staildards, with the goverrzment providing health insurance klr peopie who are unemployed?" Better: ""I has k e n proposed that all employers be required to provide health insurance for all their e m p k e e s meeting certain rninixnurn standards. The government would provide health insurance Eor people who are unemplcryed. Wc~uIdyou favor or oppose this idea?

5. Do not state questions in the negative, Wrong: ""Toyou think the United States should not decrease its invofvernerit in Bosnla or not?"

Better: "Do you think the United States should decrease its involvement in Bosnia or keep it at the current level? "

6. Avoid unhmiliar language. TXryo~g:"1s ideological proximity more important in your electmal decisit~nmakingthan fiscal c~~ilsiderati~ns?~' Better: "Which is more important to you in deciding how to vote-how liberal or conservative a candidate is, or how the candidate stailds on taxes and spending?"

7 , Avoid ambiguous questions, Wrong: ""DO you favor (12 t)ppOse the prt>ptxal to improve edticatit~n?" Better: "It has been proposed tlzat all public scllools test children in the third and sixth grades and the senior year in high school to make sure they have learned what they should. Would you favor or oppose this idea?" S, Minimize threats. TXryo~g:"Do YOU want to keep black people our: of your neigtzbcjrh~~c~d? '' Better: "'Suppose a family who had about the same income and education as you were going to move into your neighborhuad, but they were of a different race. Would this bother you or x~ot?'" 9, Avoid dr>ul.tle-barreledquestions. Wro~zg:((Should Central High Schoof and North HighSchool be merged and the new school be named Central or not? Better: "'Do you agree OF disagree with the proposal to merge Central Higlz School and North High School? X I the two schools were merged, should the new school t ~ something r eke?" be named Central OF NOTPI?

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77

h ~ b v i t consideratit~n ~~~s is vocabulary used: Never w e ''big9' worrl's that w~ukII!be t,nJanzilirlr to the avemgc person. Terms such as ""ideological," "recidivism," and "philanthropic"' might be appropriate in a college classroom, but certainly not in a survey In almost all cases, Language familiar to almost everyone can be substituted. If a technical term cannot be avoided, then it must he explained, Ambzguous questions must be avoided, An ambiguous question is one that could have more than one meatling. This is a matter not only of tlze wording but aiso of the substance of the qrzesrion. For instance, asking someone a question using the aphorism that "politics makes strange bedfellows" migl~tcause some respondents to come up with some very interesting interpretations today. Even a reference to such familiar phrases as "'Right to Life" a t ~ d"Freedom of Choice" might be misinterpreted if it was unclear whether the question concerned abortion, A c o m m ~ t lreason h r ambiguity is vagueness. It m s t be clear to the respondent just what the question is about. Some survey questions may be threatening to respondents; threafi shotjld be avoided, o r at least mzutivutixed, When asking a bout whether the respandent engages in socially unaccepta bte bebavior, such as use of dangerous or illegal substances or exhibiting racial prejudice, there is a risk that the respondent wilt refuse to answer or, more likely, be less than honest, This problem can occur with less controversial topics as well. For example, asking whether a person watched the presidential candidate debates may seem to imply that they were not good citizens if they did not, The threat in this case could he reduced by asking, "Were you able to watch the debates or not?" This offers an implied excuse for those who did not watch, and it extracts the same inlormatioil, A final rule is avoid do~lrk-barreledqmestions. These are i t e m that ar-tempt to get one answer to two different questions, for example, '90you think that the United States should reduce fc~reign aid and spend the money on welfare here at homel'TThese subjects can and should be covered in two separate questions, Writing good survey irems is a combination of good communication skills and experience, h e way to help ensure that questions are clearly worded and unlikely to be confusing to respondents is to try the questions a number of times hefore adrnin-

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715

i s ~ r i n gthe final: version. f ndeed, in well-do~~e surveys researchers ofken select a samyfe of actual respondents far a pretest and conduct a small-scale survey in the same way they proposed for the actual project. As for experience, even novices can draw clcl the experience of others by looking at questions that have been used in other surveys, (~Wanyof the sources of survey data presented in Chapter 4 include the wording of qrzestic>ns.)ff your survey uses the same wording as another survey has used, you may gain the added advantage of comparing your results with those from a differerit sample, Even if'the precise topic is not covered in another survey, similar wording can Often be adopted, This is not to say that all published surveys, cornrnercial and acadexnic, are well written, but they offer a good stafting paint fc~rthe researcher in training.

Exercises Following are soxne survey questions, each of which contains one or more of the common probterns discussed in this chaptea; Identify the problems in each and then write an improved version of the question that would avoid the problems.

I. Arenk yyou concerned about the state of the economy and in hvor of the bcziariced budget amendment? 2. Do you think we should do more to reduce crixne? 3. Do you think that people should be allowed to do things that are not good for them or not? 4. Do you agree or disagree that we stloufd not get involved in the situatioil in Kosovo? 5. Do you think that those money-hungry tobacco companies should be severely puaisl~edfor killing all those innocent people? 6. Which candidates for county office did you vote for in the election? '7, Should the United States use retaliatory tariff barriers tc-,reduce our balance of payinents deficit, or should we rely on bilateral negutia tions? 8, Do you agree that the death penalty should nc>the used as a punisl-rment for murder?

Survey Research

Suppose that you wished to test the hypothesis that the more education people have, the trtore liberal they tend tct be on social issues. Propose a research design using survey research to test tl-ris hypothesis. Uou should specify the type of design you would use, details of the survey (population, saiirtpling method, sarnple size, and interviewing inethod), and operational definitions of all variables (these wilf be the survey questions you would ask),

Suggested Answers to Exercises l. This is a leadirlg question and it is double-barreled Improved: 'V-Iow concerned are you about the state of the economy today-would you say that you are very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not very concerned at all?"" "'Do you favor or oppose the idea: of an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would require a balanced budget every year?'' 2 , This is an ambiguous question, as there are many proposals on this topic. Improved: "Do you fa:vor or sppose Icjnger prison sentences as a means to reduce crime?" 3. This is an ambiguous question, as the respol-rdent would not know what kinds of ""things" are being considered.. Tmproved: 'T~~outd it be a gaod idea or a bad idea if smoking cigarettes were made ijlegal??' 4, This question is stated in the negative and also map raise questions of coxnpetency to answer, as respondents may not he familiar with this situation is1 the former Yugoslavia. Improved: ""Asyou may have heard, there is a section of tile former Yugoslavia called Kosovo, where most of the people are of Aibas~ianancestry and where the Serbian government has been accrised of kiIling civilians. Do you think that the United States should send troops to try to keep the peace in the area or nat?" 5. The question includes emotional language and it is leading. Improved: "Would you firvor or oppose imposing heavy fines on tobacco companies to cover the costs of health care h r people who smoked cigarettes?"

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Respondents wouid not be competent to answer this question, because they would probably not remember their votes, Improved: ""Didyou happen to vote in the election last November for Sheriff?" "Did you vote I'c~rJohn Smith, tl-re Republican, or Bill jones, the Democrat?" 7. This question uses unfamiliar language, Improved: What should the United Seates do about the trade i~nbalancethat comes af our buying more from atl-rer countries than we sell to them-should we raise our taxes cm goods we import or should we try to work it out with those countries? f3, This is a leading qriestion and is stated in the negative, Improved: "Do you agree a r disagree that the death penalty should be used as a punishment for murder?"

C;.

The most appropriate design here would be a correlational design in wl-rich the independent variable is an individual" education, the dependent variable is the individual's degree of social Iiberalism, and control variables are the inrdividnal's age, social status, race, and religion, The pvpuiatlon to he surveyed wouid he the adult population of the United States. The data ctluld be obtained by means of telephone survey using random digit diaiing with a sample size of 1,500. The respoildent" seducation would be determined by asking, How far did you go in school-did you attend high school, graduate from high school, attend college, or graduate from college? Social liberalism could be determined by askirtg the following questions: 1, Would you favor or oppose adoption af a constitutional amendment that would make abortion illegal under any circu~nstances? 2. Would you favor a r appose making it illegal to discrixninate against hiring someone because he or she was a homosexual? 3. Would you favor a r appose a constitutional amendment that would allow prayer in the public schools? 4. T t has been proposed that the US. government make a payment to all African Americans to make up for what they suffered as a result of slavery in the United States. Would you hvor or oppose this?

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81

5. Would you favor or oppose stranger laws that would restrict the sale of yorn~grap~ly ?; The answers to these questions would then be coded as to which was liberal ( l , oppose; 2, favor; 3, oppose; 49 favor; 5, oppose), and each respondent h e n would be given a score equal to the number of liberal Rsponses, The control variables wc~uldbe measured by answers to the following questions: Age: HOWold are y ~ > u ? Social status: Wc~ufdyou describe yourself and your family as generally being in the upper class, rniddle class, working class, or lower class? Race: Would you describe your racial or ethnic status as white, black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, Asian Axnerican, or Native American? Religion: Is your religiorz Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, or something else?

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Statistics: An Introduction

Once the observations of tlze variables in a hygotlzesis have been rnade and assernbied into a data set, the next step in the research process is to analyze those data in order to draw conclusir>ilsabout the hypothesis. Mwever, the bits of data are often numerous ir~deed. This is particularly true in tlze social sciences, wlzere we may have stlrvey results a n dozens of questions from hundreds or even thousands of respondents. Tb look over such a vast array of data to "xe" what is there would he a very difficult task, In order to evaluate our data and determille what patterlls are present, we need statistics. There are many satistical measures, Chapters 8, 9, and 10 wilt show you how ta compute several of them. This chapter presents an overview, hegir-rning with some basic irlformation that is necessary to be able to use any statistical measures correctly.

Levels of Measurement The term Eevel o f n z e a s u r e ~ ~ erefers n ~ tc-,the classifications or units that result when a variable has been operationally defined. There are three levels of IneasureInent with which you need to be familiar: nominal, ordinal, and interval data.

The ""lowest" Ievef of measurement, that is, the feast precise, is the nominal level. 12 rtominal variable simply places each case into one

of several u~orderedc~tegories.Examples would include an individtlalk raclallethnic stattts (African American, wl-rite, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, or other), religious preference (Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, none, other), and vote for president (Clinton, Dole, Perat, other, nut voting), Note tkat it would make no sense to describe such variables in quantitative terms. Ti, speak of "'more religion,'"^ "more voting" 'from data t ~ nthese mearace,'"'Eess sures wauld be silly, Marninal variables contain inforrnation on "what kind," not ""hc>wmuch,"

As the name implies, ordilzal variables rank cases in relation to each other. This can take two fc~rms.The first, mnk order, puts the cases in exact order according to svrne characteristic. For example, we could rank states in order of population, with California being first, New Ycxk second, and so on. Note that these rank values do not carry as rnuch ir~formationas the actual population figures on which they are based would, A state that is railked tenth in population drxs not have twice as trtan)r people as the state ranked twentieth. Rank order is not rnuch used in analysis for research pwposes, In order to get an exact ranking, we usually would need numerical measures of the actual quantity of the variable. These would be it~&rz~al values (discussed below), and it is preferable to treat such variables as interval, In the rest of this hook any references to ordinal variables will mean ordr?red catggoYiesr the more common form of an ordinal variable. With ordered catqordes, variables are put into categories-as are noirtirtal variables-h~zt the categories have an inhererst order, This could be done by taking a variable for which numerical (interval) data are available and grouping the cases into categories, For example, states could be grouped by population into categories such as aver 10 million, 1 rnillian to 10 xnitlion, and under I million. Note that this sheds some of the information originally available, Ordinal category variables may also come directly from rneasures tkat do not have interval precision. For example, survey respondents might be ranked in social class by asking them if they consider themsefves to be upper class, middte class, or wt~rking class. litllike nominal variables, ordinal variables, whether rank order OF ordered categories, may he described in quantitative terms. It is

proper to say that some cases in a data set have more education tl-rall others, even tl-rough education is measured only in tenns of grade school, high schr~ol,or college, Jn determining whether a set of categories may be considered as ordinal, it is imyortmt to rexnetnber that all categories xnust fir a pattern of high to iovv (crr low to high) on the variable. The census categories of sccupation (professional and managerial, clerical and sales, skilled xnanual, and unskilled manual) could be used as an ordinal measure of social status. However, tlie addition of the categov of "farmers and farm laborers'kould render the level as only nominal. The addition of residual categories such as "dc)ri3t know," "not ascertained," or ""other" will always cause the ordinal quality to be lost, fn actual practice, this problem may he avoided if the researcher is willing to exclude all such cases from the analysis.

The highest Ievel of measurement is the interval level. An i n ~ r v a l variable provides an exact rlurnher of whatever is being measured. This xnay be an actual count? for example, the total number of votes received by a candidate in a district or a person" annual income. Or it may be a st;'zndardized form, such as the percentage of the district voting Wernocratic or the average income of families in a state, This means that not only may ir-rterval variables be described in quantitative terms ("the higher the income, the lower the percentage Wexnocratic" "j but also exact comparisons may be made. For example, the dirference between $5,000 and $10,000 of income is the safBe as the difference beween $I 0,000 and $15,000. There is also anotl-rer, similar level of measurexnent called a m~r'o s a l e , As the difference between interval and ratio levels is rarely importmt in social statistics, it will not be discussed here. Box 6.1 provides a number of examples of variables and their level of measurement. Exercise A at the end of the chapter provides additional examples for you to test your understanding.

Rulc~fi~r Using Levels of Mm:turement These three levels of measurement are relatively simple concepts, though which level applies in some actual cases may be debatabie, But the application is coi~pticatedby the fact that there are two

BOX 6.1 Exampies of Level of Measurement Interval level; * Gross national product (in r~illionsof U S , d ~ l l a r s ) * Voter turnout (as percentage of voting age population) e Perceiltage Ga tholic * Years of education * Crime rate (number of crimes per 100,000 population) Ordinal: e Seniority in the Senate (as of this writing, Senator Strorn Thurmox~dis first, etc.) * Level of econoxnic development (developed, newly industrialized, less developed) * Age ( Z 8-20,2 1-39, 40-59, 60 and older) * Opinion on dekrlse syendiw (increase, keep at present level, decrease, eliminate entirely) * Ideology (very conservative, somewhat conservative, middle of the road, somewl~atliberal, very liberal) Moxnina l: e Region (Northeast, midw west, South, West) * Farm of goverIIment (democrat).; monarchy, military authoritarian, marxist, other) e Source of political infc~rmation(television, radio, newspapers, r~agazines,talking to others, n o ~ ~ e ) * Party preference (Republican, Democrae, independent, other, noile) * Opinion on gays in the military (allow, not allow, no opinion)

Lowest rules that allow variables tc-,be treated as other levels under certain circumstailces, Rule I is that a tlavirzble may always be treated its a lower lezlel of measurement, This means that an interval variable rnay be treated as ail ordinal or nr~nzinalvariable, and an vrdiilal variable

as a nominal variable, Thus, the percentage of a state" vote that went to tl-re Democratic candidate, an interval variable, could be used to put the states into rank order from most Democratic to least Democratic, States csuld also be put into ordinal categories, such as aver 60 percent Democratic, SO percent to 60 percent Democratic, 40 percent to 49 percellt Democraic, and so on, 3% treat a l no changes are needed; one simthese categories as n o ~ ~ i n data, ply ignores tl-re fact that tl-rey l-rave an orderIn applying rule I, it is critical to keep in mind that although you may go down in level of measurement from interval ttr srdirlal to nominal, it is not permissible to go up, that is, to treat a nominal variable as ordinal a r an ordinal variables as interval. There is uile exception to that statement, and it constitutes the other rule, Rule 2 is that a dichotomy may be treated as a ~ z ylevel of measurement, A dickotomy is a variable that has two and only two possible values or categories. An example would be a perso~l'sgender (female or male), assuming that there were no cases in which that infamation was missing, A state could he classified as having a Republican or a Democratic governor. This would be a dichotomy as Long as no state had an independent a r third party gavernor, But if there are only two possible categories into which any cases can fall, the variable inay be treated as interval, ordinal, or nominal, regardless of i t s substantive concent. Thus, rule 2 might be expressed as "dichotomies are wildm-in the card-playing sense, of course, In order to take advantage of rule 2, it is common for researchers to modify their data tc-,create dichott3mies. The motivation for this is that the statistics that can be used only br interval variables are more powerful than those for ordinal and nominal data. Hence, for example, the ethnicity of individuals might he condensed from the nominal set of categories of white, African American, Hispanic, Asian American, and other into the dichotomy of wl-rite and nonwhite, In political analysis it is common to collapse the regions of d i c h o t o ~ ~ 50y, the United States into a S~uthern/Non-Sc)t~ther~l phisticated multivariate analyses sometimes create what is called a &mmy variable by using each categclry in a nominal variable, such as religious prefere~ice,to create new dichotomous variables-for example, Pratestantmon-Protest nt, CatholiclNon-Cat holic, and SO on.

Box 6.2 provides some examples of the application of these two rules, as does Exercise B at the end of tlze chapter,

Why LeveL of Meusuremmt Are Important The reason it is so important to be able to identif.y the level of measurement and correctly apply the rules is that each of the many statistics designed far data analysis makes assumptions about the variablesqwel of measurement. If you use an inappropriate statistic to evaluate your data, the results may be ~neaninglessand lead you to draw erroneous conclnsit>ns, This is something to bear in mind when using computers in staeisticaf analysis. The coxnpmer programs we use to calculate statistical values do not know what the content of your variables is and therefore caxlnot determine what statistics should be used. Since it is common to enter all kinds af data as numbers, the computer will readily treat any variable as interval data, even though the numbers may represent arbitrary codes for naxninal categories. A variable such as region may be coded 1 for Northeast, 2 for midw west, 3 for South, and 4 for West. To compute the ""average region" would be senseless, hut a sk~tistical program will do it if you request it. Therefr~re,always be aware of the level of measurement of your variables and of what leveIs the tvvo rufes will aiXow you to treat them as. As noted earlier, you may choose to modify a variable, such as by collapsing it into a dichotomy, tto take advantage of rule 2, Most computer programs can do this for you autctmaticaf!y.

What lls ~ S~ati~tic-7 As noted at the start of this chapter, in social science research we are often faced with the task of looking at a large collection of observatio~lsand trying to see what patterns are present. Such a task would be diff"icrtlt.and in many cases impossible if we did nor have statistics to assist us, A statistic may he defined as a nur~ericatmeasgre t/?at summarizes some characteristic of a larger bod$i of dcntil. That is why statistics are useful, They can reduce very Large amouilts of information, such as the census of the United States, to single numbers that convey information we need. Statistics are found in everyday life, and everyone uses tlzem. The most common statistic is the total, such as the total population of a nation or the total amount of Enolley in one" pocket. Anather

BOX 6.2 Rules far Using Level of Measurement and Exampies sf Their Application Rule k '""own, Bttt Not Up": A variable may always be treated as a Eower level of measurement (is., interval may he and ordinal may be treated as treated as ordinal, or nof~ir~aX a nominal. But never treat a variahle as a higher level.

Rule 2: ""r>ichotr>miesAre Witd" A dichotomy-a varia hle with only two possihie values-may be treated as any ieve) of measurement.

Percentage of a nation's budget spent on defense: This is an i~ltervalvariable, so it could also be treated as ordinal or ncminal (rule l f. Party competition in a state f highly competitive, less competitive, one party): This is an ordinal variable, so it could also be treated as x~ominal(rule l f . NATO membership (~nemkr,mnmember): This is a dichotomy, so it could be treated as nominal, urdir~al,or interval (rule 2 ) . Form 01 municipal government (strong mayor, councilmanager, cornmissinn, other): This is a ncjminal variable and not a dichotomy, so it could only be treated as nominal. Level of education, variation I (grade scl-rool, some kigl-2 school, high school gmdtrate, some college, college graduate): This is ordinal, so it could also be treated as nominal (rule I f . Level of education, variation 2 (grade schtlol, some high school, high school graduate, some coliege, college graduate, trade scbooi, stilt in school, unknown): TI.ris is a x~orninal variable because clre addition of m y of the last three cacegories deprives it of its otherwise ordinal quality, Therefore, it can be treated only as x~orninal, csl.tbfzzlc?s

Population density (number of people per square mile): This is an interval variable, so it could be treated as nominal and ordinal as well (rule 1). Legislator's vote oil bill f yea, nay): This is a dichotc.>my,sc.3 it map be treated as nominal, ordinal, or interval (rule 2 ) .

common statistic is the proportiorz, which can be expressed as a decimal, a fraction, or a percentage, Ra&s are also a familiar statistic, such as miles per gallon fclr automobile fuel consumption. The average, the term mast people use for tl-re arithmtt3tZc mean, is a well-knom statistic. Uewed in this way, the subject of statistics is not an exotic undertaking, hut simply an extensiorl of a tool you have been using far years, Since scientific research goes beyond sirnple descriptioil and attempts to analyze relationships and test hypotheses, you will need some new tools in your toolbox,

All of the examples of everyday statistics cited above are gniuariate, that is, they describe characteristics of one variable at a time, Since most readers already have some knowledge of them and since scientific research is usually concerned with multivariace questions, the discussion here wilf he brief,

Measures of Cmtml Tendency The mast familiar univariate statistics are measures of central tendency-r, as they are cornxnonly called, averages. There is a measure for each Level of measurement. Each one is way of describing what the "'typical" ccas in a set looks like on some variable. The best known is the mean, or arithxnetic average, which can be computed only for interval data. The mean is computed by adding up alt of the individual values and dividing by the number of cases. A, similar measure is the median, or "middle" value in a distribution: Half of the cases have higher values and half have lower values. Technically, a inedian can be determizzed froin ordinal data,

but it is usually computed for interval values. Suppose we have a very small town of five farnilies and their incarnes are $2,000, $2,000, $3,000, $4,000, and $89,000. The meail family income for this town wo~zldbe $20,000, but the median would be only $3,000. In cases such as this, with highly skewed distributions (i.e., where there are some extreme cases, which can geatly affect the mean), the median is often considered to be a better measure of central tendency, In this example, the median income of $3,000 better describes the typical family than the mean of $20,000. But it: should be remembered that the mean actually includes more information than the rnedian. A measure af central tendency that can be applied even to naminal data is the mode, which is simply the most frequently occurring value or category fn the example above, the mode would be $2,000, Modes are not very useful for inrerval data, especially when the values have a large potential range, ~Vodesare sometimes useful for describjng orditlaf category or nurni~taldata. For example, the modat ethnic category in the U.S. is white, because inore people fail into that category than any other.

Another characteristic af a set of observations is the extent t a which they are dispersed, that is, l-row closely- or widely cases are separated on a variable, Measures of dispersictn can be cc~mputed only for interval data, We could have two distributions of sbservations with the same mean and rnediall that are very differem from one another, For example, to take t w more very small towns, one might have five families with incssrtes of $2,000, $2,000, $20,000, $38,000, and $38,000, and the atl-rer five families with incornes af $18,000, $19,000, $20,000, $38,000, and $38,000. In both cornmunities the meal? and the rnediar? income is $20,000. But in the first cornmunitgr, income is dispersed over a wide range, whereas in the second the incomes are mtlre similar tc-,one ailother, The simplest rneasure of dispersion is the mlsge, which is simply the difkrerlce between the highest and the lowest values. In the first town the range is $36,000, and in the second it is $4,000, The range is not a very usefut measure, however, because it is so easily affected by the presence of even one extreme case, There are inore sophisticated versions such as the guartike range, which is half the difference betweeri the values of the cases that rank one-fourth and

three-fourths of the way between the highest and lowest scores, But even this sort of Ineastire is not as precise as one xnigbt wish. The most common measure of dispersion is the standard devzatz'on, which is based 0x3 a summation of the differexice of each case from the mean, Although tl-ris is sometimes useful as a measure in itself, it is most commonly used in performing certain tests of statistical significance,

The Concept of Relationship As sl-rauld be clear from earlier chapters, scientific research is ustially concerned with multz'vavht~:questions-the relationship between two or more variables, The concept of relationships between variables was introduced earlier, but x~owwe will see what such relationships look like. In order to do this, we must first understand how data can be assembled to view possible relatir>nships.

The way data on two nominal or ordinal category variables are customarily presented is by use of a cross-tabulation, or contingency table, This is a table showing the frequencies of each comhix~ationof categtjries on the two variables. Coxistructing one is simply a process of counting tip how xnany cases fall into each combinatioil, Box 6.3A shows a set of "raws3data and the resulting contingency table. 1st this example, one woufd first go through the data and count up how many males voted Republican, then how many females, and so on, Contingency tables are often presented in terms of percentages. This can be done in several ways; the percentages might add up to 100 for each column, ii>r each row, or for the elltire table, However, it is usually clearest for the reader if the fotlowjng conventions are followed: ( 1 ) Let the independent variable define the columns and the dependent variable define the rows, ( 2 ) Compute column percentages by dividing the frequency of each cell by the total for that coluxnn. (fl this is done, the percentages for each coluxnn will add up to 100,) Box 6,3B shows a contingency tahle with raw frequericies and their percentages in proper form, Note that it is desirable to include tl-re N, which is the number of cases on which each set of percentages is based, The variables and categories should also be clearly iabeled.

BOX 6.3 The Contingency Table A, Constructing thc Tabfc Contingency T3blr: GENDER GENDER VOTE Male Female M R VOTE Republican: 3 2 F R Democratic: 2 3 M R, F W 1 M D F D M R F R F D M W

B, Expressing the Table in Terms of Perccnttlges RAW FREQUENCIES PERCENTAGES GENDER GENDER, Male Female Male Female VOTE VOTE Republican: 557 423 Republican: 56 % 42% Democratic: 439 586 Democratic: 44 58 100 %, 100 %,

To show interval data in a contingency table would not make much sense, as there would have to be rows and columns for each of the individual values of the variables, and most cells would have a frequericy of l or 0.Instead, reiationships between two interval variables are shown in a scattergram (also called a scatterplot), Box 6,4 gives an example of a small set of interval data and the resulting scattergram, Note that the ehorizrr~fialaxis is a l w y s z-rsed fix the irt-

BOX 6.4 Constructing a Scattergram Data

MEDIAN INCOME $ z 0,000 $2"7"500 $72,000 $3 l ,900 $46,000 $40,700 $s2,500 $19,000

PERCENT" REPUBLICAN 33 46 73 S4 60 62 65 3s

Scattergram

Median Incaxne ( $ 1 000's)

dependent variable and the vertical axis for the dependent vanable. 70 construct this scattergram, one would first go acmss the horizontal axis to the value of the independent variable-income in rl-ris case-and then straight up to the height of the dependent variable--percent Republican--and at that intersection place a dot

indicating the positisn of the case. When this is done for all cases, the result is a scattergram, (In some cases, nuxnbers or letters identiityiag the cases are used instead of dots.)

What Doo- u Relationship Look Like? To say that there is a relationship between two variables implies that the cases are not distributed randomly, hut rather that there is some identifiable pattern, With ordinal or interval data this can be described in quantitative terms; for example, the more education one has, the higher one's income tends to be, Relationships between nominal variables may be described in terms of contrast between categories, for example, that Catholics are more likely to be Democrats than are Protestants, But the different types of possible relationsl-rips can best be illustrated with contingency tables and sca ttergrams. Box -6.5attempts to do this by shswitlg what contingency tahles and scattergrams would look like if there were absoluteiy no relationship between two wriables as compared with a "'perfect" rerelationship, which cart take either a positive or negative fonn with ordinal and interval variables. Consider part A for noxninal variables. m e r e there is no relationship, the percentage colum~lsin the contingency table are exactly the same. As one moves across a row, tl-re figures do not change. It makes no dit-tierence in this hypothetical data set whether a persc-~nis Protestant, Catholic, or Jewish; 37 percent of each religiuri is Republican. Religion would be of no value in predicting a person's party affiliation. On the other hand, the example of a perfect relationship shows a different situation entirely, All Protestants are Republican, all CathoIics are Wexnocratic, and all Jews are independent. This xneans that we could perfecrly predict a person" party identification by knowing his OF her religion. I he same is true of the examples for ordinal variables in part B of Box 6.5. The no-relationship example shows that each educational group has exactly the same income distribution. But in the example of a perfect positive relationship, all individuals who went to college have a high income, those who went to high schc~olall have a medium income, and those who went only to grade school all have a low incoxne. Therefore, for this ilypotl-recical data set, we can say that tile more education a person has, the higher his or her income, and one variable csuld perfectly predict the other, In the v T

BOX 6.5 Examples of No Relationship and Perfect Relationships

No Iielarionship REI,IC;IC)N Prot Cktj? feu) In

Ind

I

39

)

c

39

m

x

Perfect Iielarionship Prot

Cath

Jew

39

x

L

Tlem

100% 10001, 100% Correlation = 0.00

L 100 IOfb% 100% 100% Currclation = 1.00

R, Ordinal V~ria61es Pcrfecr Relatiotlships

Na Relationship EI3UCATIC)N m C O M E C d HS GS' -30% -30% 30% Hi Med 42 42 42 MeJ Low 28 28 28 tow 100% 100% 100% Correlation = 0.00 P P -

EI>UCATION IfFI$ GS Col HS C;S 100% 0% 0% Hi 0% 0% 100% O 100 O MeJ 0 100 O O 0 100 to\v10O O O 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% fO0% Correlation = + 1.00 Currclation = -1.00 C01

p

NO IiE:I,ATIONSHlI~

Perrcntage Urban

p

continued Perfect Positive Relationship

Perfect Negative Relationship

Percent Urban

example of a negative relationship, tl-re predictability is again perfect, but in the opposite direction. In this unlikely exaxnple, all college people have low incomes and ail those who went only to grade scboof have high incomes. In part C of Box 6.5, scattergrams are presented for a pair of interval variables. In the no-relationship example, the cases are randomly distributed with no patterzl. In the example of a perfect positive relationship, all the cases fall on a straight line, so it is clear that the more urban an area, the higher the Democratic percentage of the vote, This wouM allow us to compute the equation for that scraigfic line and therefore predict the vote for any case from its urbanization score (how to 40 this win be covered in Chapter 9 j. The same is true in the negative relationship example, except that the

line slopes downward, indicating that the more urban an area, the less Wexnocratic its voting pattern.

Three characteristics of a relationship between variabkes can he summarized by statistics: stre~zgth,dkection, and significrlnce, Jt is critical to understand the difkrence between tlzem.

Strength ofa Relationship The s t ~ n g t hof a relationship is a measure of where the relationship falls between no reiationship and a perkct relationship. It can also be thought of as a relative rBeasure of how good a predictor the independent variable is of the dependent variable. There are many statistics designed to meclsure strength of association. These are commonly called correlatiuns. (A nrlmber of them are summarized below in 'Table 6.1, and several are presented in detail in Chapters 8, 9, and 10,) Although these statistics are designed for difkrent c s ~ ~ b i n a t i o of n s levels of measurement and differ in their sensitivity to various aspects of the distribttcion of the variables, they all have two things in common, First, if there is absolutely n o relationship between the variables, they will have a value of zero. (However, soxne define ""no relacionship" a little difkrentliy than others,) Second, if there is a '"gerfect" relationship, all will have a value of one, though it might he either pius one or rninus one, depending on tlze direction of tlze relationship, as discussed below Thus, for example, the "no relationship" tables and graph in each part of Box 6.5 all would have a correlation of exactly zero, using any of tlze many measures of strengtl-r of association. The ""perfect relationship" tables and graphs would each have a correlatic~nvalue of plus one or rr.linus one, depending on wlzetlser the relationship is in a positive or negative direction.

Direction of u Relationship The diwctiovt of a relationship is a simple concept, Jt alswers the question of what happens to the dependent variable as the independent variable increases. If the dependent variable also increases, then the relatioi-rshipis said to be positive, If the dependent variable decreases, the relationship is negative.

Direction in this sense applies only to ordinal or interval variables. A purely nominal va ria ble, such as an individual's religious preference or ethnic it)^, cannot he said to increase or decrease. The direction of relationships as indicated by statistics computed on ordinal category data is completely dependent on the order of the columns and rows, In the example in part I3 of Box 6.5, reversing the order of the colu~nnson education or the rows on inco~ne(httt not both) would reverse the plus or minus sign for any correlation. That is one reason why it is always important to look closely at the contingency table, preferably one in terms of percentages, before drawing conclusions a bout relatiolls between categorized variables.

The term significdlzce has a special meaning in statistics. Significance refers to the probability that ca retattonshii~between variiables could h ~ v occurred e by d a m e irr.a rartdom s a ~ ~ p lift ) there . UI(?'JP EO rel~tio~shiit, between them in the p o p ~ l u t i ofiom ~ which the sample was dwwn. Recall f%omthe discussion of survey sampling in Chapter 5 that even properly taken samples are a matter of chance. For that reason, there is always a confidence interval around an estimate made from a sample, The same idea applies to relationships between variables in sample data, though it is expressed differently. The probability of a relationship occlrrring by chance is, essentially, the probability that one might make a mistake by drawing the conclusion that the relationship observed in the sample is true of the Larger population. Therefore, the smaller that p r o b a b i l i ~ , the more signifisan$ the relafl'onship. In most social science research, if the probabilit), is .05 or h s , the% the relationsh@ is s a d t u be s z g n i f i ~ ~ $There l;, are quite a nuxnber of significance tests, some of which are listed below in Table 6.1 and several of which are covered in detail in Chapters 8, 9, and I Q. But the .O.T lezjel of sigrziJicavrce lapplks t o all signjlicance tests, This, incidentally, is the same thing as the 9.5 percent level of confidence cited in the discussion of survey sampling in Chapter 5. It is important to re~nemberthat szg~zificancetests sliouM be zdsed only if the data are fiom a random sample, If the data are from a sample that has not been selected by one of the appropriate rnethods described in Chapter S, then significance tests have no validity But what if the data are not from a sample at all, but constitute a whofe population, such as all fifty U.S. states or all I Q0 Senators?

Then signiticarxcr: tests, while not necessarily inaccurate, are unnecessary If there is even a very weak correlation between two characteristics of the fifty states, then we can be sure that it exists, though it may not be of any importance. As will becorne clear when you learn how to conduct surne significance tests in iater chapters, the significance of a relationship is determined by two factors: the strc~gthof the correlcation and the sample size. The stronger tl-re correlation between two variables, the less the probability that it was a chance occurrence and, therefore, the more significant it will be. But it also depends on how large the s m y l e is. The same degree of ritrerigth might he significant in a large sample, but not achieve significance in a small sample. It is important to keep this in mind when interpreting data, whether in analyzing your own or reading the results of another person" rreearch. In large samples, such as surveys with over 1,000 eases, even very weak relationships map be "statistically significant," ever1 though they are of littfe substantive importance, With a11 of this background, we can now take a Look at Table 6.1, which summarizes a number of (hut certainly not all) the statistics designed to evaluate relationships. All of these are biwriate scatistics-they evaluate relationships becween two variables. TI~ere are also statistics that deal with the relatioilship between three or more variables, but these are al! extensions of Pearson" rr,so the same assumptions and interpretations apply, These statistics are discussed in Chapter 10. Table 6-1 can be useful when reading the results of someone else's rreearch and encountering m unfamiliar scatistic. It can also he useful when analyzing data using a computer program that offers a wide choice of possible statistics. But it is highly inadvisable to use a statistic with whicl-r one is not familiar, There are many details and variations that a simple summary like Table 6.1 cailnot cover,

Exercises For each of the fclllowing variables, identify the level of measurement (nominal, ordinal, or interval).

I , Opinion on legality of abortion (always, only under certain circumstances, never).

TABL,E 6.1 Cornrnc~nUivariate Statistics

Level oJ N easzdremenf

Measz-zres of Association

Tests of

Range

Sigazficilnce

T k o noxntnal variables

Thc ordinal variables

Two interval variables One nominal variable and one intavaf variable

*Chi"

*Lambda *l3l1i Cramer" V F&uB

if tocl.0

*[Gamma MendafPs Taug Mendati's Tau,

-1 .0 to 4-1.0 -Z.if to + 1.0 -1.0 to cl.0

*13earsr>nks

-l .O to c l ,O *F-test

Eta

if tocl.0

0 to+l .O Vt) to+ l .O if tocl.0 *iffcrenee of Means

*Statistics covered in detai! in Chapters 7, 8, and 9.

2. Outcoxne af a congressional vote on. a bill (pass, faif), 3. Nuxnber of irregular executive transfers in a nation since 1980, 4. Previous coionial power (Britain, France, Spain, other, none), S. Size of largest city (Over 1 million, 200,000 to 1 million, less than lOO,OQOf.

Far the examples in Exercise A, apply rules 1 and 2 and identifii aSI of the levels of measurement the variable could be considered as,

incf udirrg the original: level,

Below are data on religion and turnout for fifteen people, Far these data:

1. Construct a contingency table showing the frequencies, 2 , Present the table in terms of percentages, using proper form, 3. Draw a conclusion about the relationship between religion and turnout for tl-rese individuals, Retiglsn P G

Turnout V

Retiglsn

V V W V

G G

.l X' G

J

Turnout V

X' X3

W V V V

Retigion 6" P

.l

G P

Turnout V W V W W

Codes for briables: Refigion: f3 = I)rotestant, C = C:achofic, j = Jcwisl~ Turnout: V = Vc?ter, N = Nctt~voter

Suggested Answers to Exercises

1. Ordinal 2. Moxninal 3, Interval 4. Nominal 5. Ordinal

I . Ordinal, nominal (rule 1 ) 2. Interval, ordinal, nominal (rule 2 ) 3. Interval, ordinal, nominal (rule I ) 4, Nominal (neither rule applies) S. Ordinal, nominal (rule 1 )

Frequency sable Reiigioil Prot Cath Jew lvumout: Voter 3 4 3 Nonvoter 3 2 0

Percentage ta hie Reiigioil Prot Cath Jew Xlmout:Voter 50% 67% 100% Nonvrlter SO 33 Q 100%) 100% 180%~

3. There is a relationship between religion and turnow in chat Catholics have higher turnout than 13ratestants, and Jews have the highest.

This page intentionally left blank

Graphic Display of Data

Popular media such as n e w s p a p e r ~ n dmagazines frequently use graphics to report the distribrrtion of resufts in some form of picture-a chart or graph instead of (or in addition to) reporting the relevant numbers. The purpose of these graphic displays is primarily to convey important characteristics trtore effectively than a verbat description or table of numhws would be able to do, The use of graphics bas increased markedly in the past decade, primarily hecause of the ease of constructing and printiilg graphs and charts with widely available computer programs. This chapter has t w prgrposes. ~ The first is to illustrate how to construct several common types of graphics. while avoiding inany common mistakes. The second is to explain how to interpret graphics you might ellcounter in your reading-and nat be mislied when others make the cofrtfrton mistakes, Construction of graphics may seem simple to do with a coxnputer, but doing it correctly involves undersranding concepts covered earlier in this book, includi~lgthe distinction between independent and dependent variables and tlie three levels of measurement discussed in Chapter 6, Since many people who pr~t graphics into their articles, reports, and papers are not familiar with tliese concepts, the grapl-rics that result are frequently meaningless or even misleading. Graphic displays of data can be very useful, both for conveying infornation to the reader and for re-

searchers to better understand their data, (The scattergram described in Chapter B is particularly useful for this latter function,) But from the standpt~intof scientific research, two disclaimers are in order. First, graphics of the type preserited in this chapter can almost never present information as complete as a numerical table can-and generatly they present much Less, Second, reports of scientific research such as those found in scho1arIy journals gerieraily do not use these sixnple grapl-rics. This chapter provides only a fimited introduction to the topic. (A brief yet comprehensive treatment of the subject c m be fou11d in Wallgren et ale 1996.)

Graphics for Univariate Distributions The simplest use of graphics is to display the distribution of cases on a single variable such as the proportion of people who belong to different religions, Typically what is being graphed is a nominal or ordinal category variable or a variable that has been made into one, such as by placing individt~alsYncornesinto different ranges. Such variables can be visually displayed in several ways, such as pie charts and bar charts.

Pie charts are circles that are divided into segments representing different categories, the relative size of:the segment being proportional to the frequelicy of the categov. Figure 7.1 is an example (all of the figures in this chapter were produced by Microsoft Excel). Often different colors or shadings are used to distinguish the categories. Mtlaough pie charts are frequently found in newspapers, magazines, and similar popular media, they are really not very useful, Most readers have trouble making a precise comparison of the size of circular wedges. For this reason, it is comInon to it-rciude the exact nuxnbers or percentages in tl-re pie chart-but tl-ris is exactly the same information that would he presented in a simple numerical table. A nrtlllber of authorities on graphic presentation advise against using pie charts (e.g., Tufre 1 983, 178).

A more useful method of displaying category fi-equencies is the bar chart. Here the relative frequency of each category is represented by

FICiliRi-, 7-1 130pularvote for president, 1996

Rtchard Al. Scammt>n,Mice V. McCitiivray, and Khodes V i ~ t e svol. , 22, Wasl~ington,13C:: Congressional Quarterly, 1998, p. 13,

SQURC;E:

M ,Cook, America

the height: of a bar. The bars are usually vertical, but may be horizontal. Bar charts are somewhat superior to pie charts in that most people can xnore easily cornpare the simple lengtlzs of bars ar lines than the relative sizes of segments of a circle, btlr again the iniormation communicated is less precise than would be a simple reporting of the actual frequencies, especially in terrns of percentagcs. Therefore, the bar chart, too, may we11 include the precise numbers. If a bar chart does not include the precise frequencies, then it sl~ould present a scale on the vertical axis, as was done in Figure '7.2. Unfortunately, such charts in popular media often fail to do this,

Graphics for Multivariate Relationships There are a nuxnber af ways the relationship between two or mare variables can be shown graphically, One is to use the bar chart. Here the different bars represent different categories of the indcpendent: variable, and their heights represent: the dependent variable, Hence, tl-re independent variable must be a norninal or ordinal category variable, and the dependent variable either frequencies-----whetheractual numbers or percetitages

FIGURE 7.2 X30pular vote for president, 1996

souacr,: Ric-hard M, Scalni~~on, Atice V. hfcGillivraj~,and Rhodes AM.

Cook, Anzerzlla Votes, vol. 22. Wa sfiington, DC: C:ongresstonat

val variable. Figure 7.3 is an example. As with the univariate bar chart, showing the exact nrlrnerical value of the height of the bar, or at least including a scale, is desirable but unfortunately is not always done. Bar charts can also be used to illustrate the relationship between three variables. These charts use bars whose height represents the frequency for interval value) of the dependent variable for each cornbillation of categories of the independent and control variables. (It does not matter wl~ichvariable is tl-re independent and which is the coiltrol variable,) Such charts could he constructed from the results of corttroiliq usizg contirtp~cyt~bles,which is discussed in Chapter 10, This approach could be extended to any number of independent and/or control variables, but the results would be very hard for the reader to interpret. Figure 7,4 is an example of a chart showing the effects of controlling.

Line Gruphs Another method of illustratir-rgthe relationship between an interval. dependent: variable and an ordinal category independent variable is

FIGURE-,7.3 Reportcci voter turnout, by ethnictry; 1996

White

/

SOURCL:

African Arncrican

C?rher

Center for Political Studies, L996 National ELection Study.

ll

the line graph, Essentially3 a line graph is the saiiBe as a bar chart, except that instead of using a bar to represent the value of the dependent variable, a single point takes the place af cl-re top of each bar, and then the points are connected with a line. Although line graphs can be used where the independent variabk categories are nominal (such as ethnic groups), it is best reserved for instances where the independent variable is ordinal. The line graph is prekrable to the bar chart when there are so many categories of the independent variable that a bar chart would be conftzsing, Therefore, line graphs o h n are used to display data over a iengthy time period, Figure 7 3 is an e x m p l e of a line graph. Note that line g r a p h sl-rauld ?;rotbe cc~nfgsedwith scat~ergrcams(Chapter 6 ) and the line connecting the points in a line graph should never be ~07.tfgsedwilFh the rqrsssion line (Chapter 8).

How Not to Lie with Graphics How to Lie with StatiStics w u l f 1954) is a famous hook first published nearly half a century ago but still available, Its purpose is to show how the popular media-par tic dart^.. advertising-frequentiy rnislead the reader tl-rrough tlzeir presentation of quantitative data, and frequently involving graphics. The kinds of problems I-fulf cited, whether committed intentionally or by mistake, are all the

FIGURE-,7.4 Reportcci voter turnout, by ethnictry and cciucation, 1996

White College

iZlrrcan

Amergcan Coifege

I

Clther Whre African Other College High School rimerrcan I-Ilgh School XIl& School

sor1,tci.: Center for Political Studies, L996 National ELection Study.

I

more common today, (A receilt attempt to make the same point can be found in Almer 2000,) It is important to he aware of these errors, both to avoid making them oneself and to prevent being misfed when Looking at tl-re work of otl-rers.

The Miislng Zero Point Perhaps the most frequent problem with bar charts and line graphs is that the vertical axis either does not go dawn to zero or part of the axis is omitted. The effect of this is to exaggerate the contrast between different categories of the independent variable. For example, if we were to draw a graph or chart of the budget of soiBe government agency over several years, and the budget increased from $100 million to $105 million, then a correctly rendered graphic would show what it should-that spending increased only very slightly, However, if we were to place the horizontal line that showed the years nat at the zero doltars point on the vertical axis but at the $95 miliion level, then the graph would at first sight give the impression that spending had doubled over this period. If we omitted any specific numbers or scales, the graph would he completely misleading, Including the numbers would ~ ~ a the k egraphic technically correct, but it still might rnislead tl-re casual reader. Figures 7,6A and 7.6B show an example of how such a gaphic should and should not be constructed,

Graphic Display

of

Data

fff

FIGURE-,7.5 Turnout of voting-age population in prcstdcntial elections, 1960-1 991;

A

Sri

60 50

G

40 Sri

30 20

3

l0

K. Abrtlmson, J o l ~ nH, Altlrich, and l3avid W. Rhode, C h a ~ g earzd C:onthzdit~~ t ~ zthe 2 996 and 2 998 EEections, Washington, 13C: CC) Press, 1999, p. 69. SCIEIRCE: I%ul

Sc;.ule~and Axes Line graphs can also he misleading because of problems with how the hr~rizontaland vertical axes are defined. Assigning the ixldeyendent and dependent variables to the wrong axes can be a major problem. When the independent variable is erroneously shown on the vertical axis and the dependent variable is erroneously shown a n the horizontal axis, the relationship between the two variables may appear completely the opposite of what it really is. Relationships also may he distorted if the range of possible values for one variable is sl~ownin a much sl-rorter length than that used for the other varia hie,

13ictorialsare graphics similar to bar charts, except that rather than simple bars whose length represents the value of a variable, a picture of some object is used, such as a sack of grain, a dollar sign, or a person, Pictorials are rlever used in scientific reporting, hut they

FIGURE-,7.6A U.S. per pupil spending on ed~rcation,1990-1 996correctly presented

U,S, Bureau of the Census, Statktical Abstract Urzited States, 1998. Washington, LX:, 1998, p. 298,

SIIURGE:

of

the

l

are found in popular media and advertising, They are particrrlarty likely to he misleading because the picture size is proportional to the variable" value nat only in lzeight but also in widtlz, and sometimes in depth, Thus if one category of the variable has a value twice as high as another, its picture would give the impression that the value was four (or even eight) tirxtes as great, And since these pictorials are sometimes presented with no specific values or scales attached, the reader would have n0 way of detecting the misrepresentation.

The Need for Standardization The x~eedfor standardization was de~nonstratedin the discussion of operational definitions in Chapter 2. Whenever we are presenting data on aggregates, suck as cities a r states, the measure is likely to be meaningful only if it is presented in some way that is standardized, usuaily to population, such as percentages or per capita figures. Since most geaphics present aggregate data, this is particularly important. A bar graph showing the total number of crimes comhtted in different states might give the impression that Cali-

Graphic Display of Data FIGURE-,7.6R U.S. pcr pupil spcrldtng on cciueadon, 1990-1 996incc~rrectfypresented

U.S, Rureacr of rhc Census, S;tatbtz"clalAbstract ofthe U~zE'tedS;tages, f 998. Washington, DC, 1998, p. 298.

SOIIRCE:

farnia and New York are far more dangerous places to live than smaller states, whereas the same chart based on crime rates f i x . , crimes per 100,000 population) would show trtuch less diflerence, and small states would not always I-rave the Ir~westrates. The same principle holds when our unit of analysis is time (i.e., comparing different time periods), because population sizes change. But when dealing with variables measured in dollars or any other unit u l currency, we also need to control far inflation, A graphic showing the incomes of my U.S. population gri~upin different years will generally show a significant increase over time, but that would be largely the result of decreases in the value of the dollar every year for many decades, Therefore, resyo~~sible grayf~ics (or verbal presentations of the same information) always present these figures in terms of consunt dollam, that is, the amounts are ad~ustedfor inflation.

Principles for Good Graphics Aside from avoiding the errors noted above (it is assumed that you would not want to mislead anyone), what are the rules for using graphic displays correctly and effectiveiyi

The purpose of a gaphic is to convey certain characteristics of data to the reader more effective15 and this is best done by making the graphic as sixnple as possible. Large numbers of categories in pie or bar charts are apt to be confusing. If a large number of categories are rlecessary fc~rfull presentation of the data, then a table i s a better choice tl-ran a chart or graph, Extensive verbal expianations in the body of a graphic shc~uldhe avoided, as should unnecessary arwork, hncy borders, and the like. If' you are printing a graphic such as a pie chart or a segmented bar chart where categories m s t be distinguished by their appearance and it is not possible to print them in diflerent colors, then dif'ferent shadings must he used. But keep the shadings as simple as possible, avoiding the use of crosshatcfning.

Although unnecessary wordirlg within a graphic sho~zld be avoided, some use of words is essential to any chart or graph. Witlain the graphic, it is essential that the variables be clearly Xabeled, including the uilits in which they are measured. Every graphic should have a titfe above it specifying what the graph is, again including the variables. Finaily, if the data are nut generated from the research you are presenting but are from another source, that source should be ideritified, ~zsuallyon a line below the graphic. The same rules, incidentally, also apply to any nuxnerical tahles you present.

Describing the Gruphi~.in the Tewt Too often graphics are tl-rrawn into a paper with little or no discussion in the text, There sho~lldalways be a description of the table, including the conclusioil that the author wishes the reader to draw. 117 same circles it is a maxim that every table, chart, or graph that appears in a scientific report ought to have at least a page of discussion. Although a page may be more thall is always necessary, certainly a paragraph i s needed, If there is nothing to be said about a graphic, then one would have to question wl-rether it is really worth iilcluding.

Jf you have more than one graphic, it should be fabeled in its title (e.g., Figure 1)and then specific reference can be made in the text to that figure so that the reader will be Looking at the appropriate picture. Again, these comments apply to tables as well as to graphics, Exercises Exerc3i3-eA Belr~wis a table sl-rowing tile frequency of poverty in different e h nic groups in the United States for several years. Design and produce two appropriate graphics (either by hand or on a computer) illustrating ( I ) the relative frequency of poverty in ethnic groups in 1996, and (2)tile change in the frequemy of poverty h r tile whole population ("'A11 Races") from 2976 to 1996 For each graphic, write a verbal description of what appears to he happening.

Persor~sBelow Poverty Level 1976-1996 (percentages)

l976 1986 1996

A El Races 11.8 13.6; 13.7

WI7ite 9.1 11.0 11.2

Black 31.1 31.4 28.4

Hispanic 26.9 29.0 29.4

sc3r~~cr;,: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the brrrited S t a t e , 3 998, Washington, DC, 1998, table '7.56.

Find an exaxnple of one of the types of graphics described in this chapter from a newspaper or magazine, Evaluate tl-ris graphic-is it misleading in any way? Are there any details or inbrmation that should have beer1 includedWas there an adequate discussion in the accompanying text (if any)? Could you suggest a better type of graphic to present this information?

Suggested Answers to Exercise A FIGURE-,7.7 status, 1996

I

Percentage of persons beiiow poverty Isvci, by ethnic

W

White

Black

Hispanic

,sertjXce: Bureau of the Census, Stagistical Abstrac~ofthe Ufzzted States, f 998, Washington, DC', 1998, p, 477.

FICiliRi-, 7-24 13ercenrage of persons be1tj-w poverty level, 1376-1396

of the Census, S&tistical Abslract of the I_ilzited States, 1998. Washington, DC:, 1998, p. 477. SOL~RCE:Bureau

I

Nominal and Ordinal Statistics

This chapter presents detailed explanations of several measures of strength of association (correlations) and one test of significance appropriate for contingency tables with nominal and ordhal variables. Students sometimes wonder whether it is practical to learn haw actually to compute such measures; after all, computer progralrts are almost afways used for the task, There are two reasons why it is useful to have some familiarity with methods of computation. One is that you may occasionalty find yourself looking at a simple frequency table for which it itlight be quicker sittlply to compute a statistic by hand than to enter the data into a computer, The more important reason, however, is that knowledge c>f how a statistic is defined and computed provides a deeper understanding of its meaning, wlzich is valtrahle in understanding how to apply and interpret it correctly.

Correlations for Naminaf Variables Lamkrdla (2)is a correlational statistic that measures the strength of assocktion between two nominal variables, TXierefore, it may be used for any contingency tabie, according to rule 1 for the use of levels of measurement. The range of possible values for lambda is from O to +I,that is, h a m nu relationship to a perfect relacionship. Therefore, a value of lambda that results in a negative number or a r~urllhergreater than 1 is a resutt of an error in cs~tlputation.

TAamhdameasures proportional redtaction of error; that is, it measures how much better one can predict the value of each case on the dependent variable if one knows the value of the independent variable. The formula for l a ~ ~ b dis aa simple one: b-a Lambda = b

where b is the nuxnber of errors one would make in predicting the value of each case a n the dependent variable if one did not know the value of the independent variables, and a is the nrlmber of errors one would make when the value of the independent variable is known, 'This is a simple idea, but it can he a Little tricky at first. Consider the c~ntingencytable below Since we will need the marginal row totals, they are included with the table,

VOTE

Clint-on

Prot 39

Cath

Jew

(Tc~taif

Suppose we had a group of l56 people and k~levvnothing abr~ut them except the overall distribution of their votes (the raw total4 from tl-re table above. Ef we had to guess haw any given individual voted, it would be best to guess that he or she voted for Glinton, We would be correct on the 76 who did vote for Clinton, but wrong on the 6.5 who voted for Dole and the 15 wl-ro voted far Perot; this would he a total of 80 errors, which is therefore the value of b. But then if we take account of the indeperident variable, religion, and look within each column of the table, we can xnake another set of predictions using the same method as before. We would predict that each Prr~testantvoted for Dole, as that is the best- guess, but- we would be wrong on the 39 Protestants who voted far Glinton and the 10 Protestants who voted for Perot. We would predict that aII Catholics. voted for Clinton, but ws~uldmake errors on tl-re 16 Catholic Dole voters and the 4 13erot-voters. Similarly, we would predict that all Jews voted for Clinton, hut he wrong on the 2 who voted for Dole and the I who voted for Perot,

Adding up a11 of these errors made within the religio~lscategories (39 + 10 + 16 + 4 + 2 + l),we arrive at a total of 72, which is the value of a. We can then use the formula to compute larnbda: b-a Lambda =b

80-2 8 = =.IQ 80

80

The value o f . 1 sl~owsthat there is some relationship, Knowing a person" religion improved our predictiorr by 10 percent, This is a relatively weak relationship, Brtt note that in comparison to soirte other correlations (particularly gatrtma, discussed below), values of lambda tend to be low, Certain other features of lambda should he kept in mind. First of all, iambda str~rtetimeshas a value of zero evexi though there is a relationship between the variables. Consider the following table:

VOTE Democratic Republican

GENDER .iMale Female 51 9.5 49 5

If you were to compute lambda (you might try this for practice), the value would prove to be 0, The reason is that the largest number of voters in each gender category voted Democratic, even though it was to a very different degree. Whenever all categories of the independent variable have their greatest fi-eyuency in the same categov of the depedent variable, larrrhda will be zero. Second, Eambcia is asy~~unetrtc, that is, it makes a difference which variable is considered the independent and which the dependent variable. For instance, if we used the data from the first example to try to predict a person" religion from his or her vote, we would find that the value of IIambda was Q, This is ant>ther reason one shouIct always set up a contingency ta hle with the independent variable defining the columns and the dependem variable defining the rows. Third, Eanzhda must he confpzated fronf a table with " r a z ~ ' ' Jreque~cies,not from a table expressed in percentages. This is because a table expressed in terms of column percentages will weight each column equally, even though that was not the case

for the raw data, Therefore, using a percentage table will ~zsuaflg result in an incorrect answer, Box 8.1 summarizes the critical informatioil about lambda and provides another example of its computation, Additional examples can be found in the Exercises A and B at the end of the chapccr, Goodman and Krrrskalk tau-h (z,J is similar to lambda. It uses a method of prediction that will riot fail tct detect certain relationships, as sametirnes occurs with lambda, Phi is anotlzer statistic fur measuring the stretlgth of association between two nr~minalvariables. It is discussed in detail later in this chapter,

Correlations for Ordinat Variables Suppose we have a table with only two rows and two columns, and both variables are ordinal. (Actualt);;since bat11 variables would be dichotr>mies,this could be any two-by-two table,) One way tc-,evaluate the strength of the relationship would be to csmpute a statistic called Y ~ l e kQ, The formula Eor Yule%Q is:

where a, h, c, and d are the frequencies in the h u r cells of the table arranged as shown below,

VARIABLE 1 INCOME High Low High Low VARIABLE 2 High a b PQLZTICAL High 8 4 INTEREST Low c ci LOW 2 6 Thus, to mmpute Yule's Q, one would simply multiply together the two diagonal pairs of cases and then divide the difference between these products by tl~eirsum. Using the frequencies in the table on the right, the computation would be:

BOX 8.1 Lambda and an Example of Its Computation Statistic: Zamhda (h) Type: Measure of association Assumptions: Two nominal variables Range: O to +l Interpretation: 13roportional reduction of error

Notes: Lambda is asymmetric. Tt should be computed only from raw frequencies, nor from percentage tables.

b-a Lambda = b7

where:

b = number of errors in predicting the dependent variable when the independent variable is not known. a = number of errors in predicting the dependent variable when the indeprildent variable is k~lown,

Example: State Party Competitbn, by Region

REGION

PARTY GQMPETIDOPIIF

NortJ? &lid East West SOU~J?West (Totals) 2 8 High 1 5 (16) Xlcdiurn 6 3 2 3 (14) Law 3 2 10 S (20)

Conclusion: There is a definite relationship between region and party competition. States in the Midwest tend to have high party competion, while states in the South are the most likely to l-rave low competition. If all tables had only two rows and two columns, Yule's Q could be used every time, Rut since marry tables are Larger, we need to use a statistic such as pmma. Yule's Q is actually a special case of gamma and was presented first in order to show how gamma depends on the extent to which cases are clustered along one diagorial more than the other. Gamma (y) is a correlational statistic that measures the strength of association between two ~rdiinalvariables. It has a range of possible values from -1 t+ g , with riegative values indicating a negative relationslnip Ltnd zero indicating no relationship. Althawgh it is not apparent from the computation procedure, the value for gamma may be interpreted as the proportionate reduction in error of prediction of one variable by the other, as was the case with lambda. Unlike tambda, gamma is symmefric, that is, it does not make a distinction betweeri the indeperident and Qeperident variables. Gamma lney also be cumpziteci!fiom percentage t.rzlik.s,The answer will be the same whether percentages or raw frequencies are used. The formula for gamiBa is;:

where P is the number of pairs of cases consistent with a positive relationship and Q is the number of pairs inconsistezlt with a positive relationship. The idea of "consistent pairs" and "inconsistetlt pairs" "requires some explanation. Consider the following table.

VARIABLE 1

INCOME bIigi9 Med Low

Hi@ Med Lout VARIABLE 2

X~QLXTICAL

Nigh a Medl'gnt J g Edow

b e

c f

h

t

C; XNTEREST H i h Mecfigm 3 Edow 2

4 8 7

1

S 9

I f there were a perfect positive relationship, every case that was higher on the first variable than another would also he higber on the second variable. Such comparisoils are therefore "c~~nsistei~t" with a positive relationship. They would include a coinparison of the higwhigh cases on each variable (cell a) with all of those in cells below and to the right (i.e., cells e, f, h, and i), Cells h, d, and e also have cases that are lower on both variables (i.e., helow and to the right on. t l ~ etable). We are not realty interested in individual comparisons, hut only in how many such comparisons could he made; the n~zmberof such pairs can be calculated by multiplying the frequencies in each pair of "cansistent" cells and adding up the total. In the example for income and political interest, the calculation would be P = 6(8 + S + 7 c 9) + 4(5 c 9) c 3(7 + 9) c 8 ( 9 )= 350. The number of ""inconsistent pairs" is the nuxnber of coxnparisons u l cases that are higher on uile variable but lower on the other, fn the exanlpfe above, cell c is iower olx variable 1, but higl-rer on variable 2 tllan ceits Q, e, h, and g, Celts b and f also may be compared to cases that are inconsistent, that is, below and to the left, Again, the total number of inconsistent pairs would be compu~edby xnuttiptying the frequencies of atl of such pairs and summing. In the income-pc.,iitical interest example, the calculation w o u l d b e Q = 1(3 + 8 c 2 c 7) + 4 ( 3c 2 f c S ( 2 c 7 ) c 8f2f = 101. 13utting tl-rese numbers into the formula, we have: P - Q 350-101 249 = 4-53 Gamma = P + Q - 350+101 -451 M

M

The value of .SS indicates that there is a xnoderately strong positive relationship between income and political i~lterest;that is, people with higher incomes tend to have more political interest.

T h ~ l sthe c s ~ ~ y u t a tof i ogamma ~~ is the saEBe as that of Yule's Q except that there are more possiHe comparisons. Note that whenever Q, the number of inconsistent pairs, is greater than P, the number of consistent pairs, the value of gamma will be negative* Garnma, Like laxnbda, has some drawbacks, One is that it ignores instances where there are "ties," that is, where cases are the same on one variable but difkrent o n the other. The effect can be seen in a table like this one:

POLITICAL INTEREST

INCOME Hi& Law kiigh 5 5 Low O 1

The value of gamma for this table would be a "perfect'" +l,even though the relatiollslzip might better he described as a weak one, For this reason, a similar statistic, Kendall"S.a~-6, may be used, Kendail's tau-b is essentially the same as gamxna, but it adjusts the value to take account of ties. The computed value of Kendall's taub will usually he iess than but never greater than the value of gamma for the same table. Box 8.2 s u m a r i z e s the critical information about gamma and provides another exafnple of its computation. Adctitional examples can be found in Exercises A and B at the end of the chapter.

Chi-Square: A Significance Test The most cornmonly used test of significance ior concillgency tables is chi-square jlC9).Since it assumes that the variables are rzt>mi~znE,it is a h y s appropriafe as far as level of measwement is concerned, However, like all significance tests, the results are meaningful only if tl-re data come from a random sample, Unlike any of the other statistics we have presented, chi-sqtxare has a range of O to N, where W i s the total number of cases in the table. This would make chi-square difficult to interpret, except that we rarely make use of the chi-square value directly. Rather, as we will see below, another step is taken to determine the associated

BOX 8.2 Information About Gamma and an Example of Its Computation Statistic: Gamma jy) Type: Measure of association Assumptions: Two ordinal variables Range: -1 to +l

Interpretation: Proportional reduction of error Formula:

where:

of pairs of cases consistent with a positive relationship, Q = number of pairs o f cases not consistent with a positive relationship.

I$ = number

Exztmpfe: Vocer turnout, by age

60

TURNOUT Voter Nonvoter

AGE 01der 50-59 4 0 4 9 30-39 12 9

13 6

I4 7

9 Il

38-29 7

l4

Conclusion: This indicates that there is a rnoderately weak positive relationship beween age and turnout. The older people are, the more likely they are to be voters. probabiliq-which is always the end product of a sigllificance test. Chi-square must be comgated from raw fiey~enczes,not from a table expressed in percentages. The formula for chi-square is:

where f 3 refers to the observed fieqtrency of each cell, that is, the numbers in the table, and fe refers to the expected freqgency of each cell, which is explained below, Sigma (C) is the summation sign, which indicates that one should perform the operation that hllows for each of the cells and then add up the results, To make this a little clearer, consider the example given in Dt~x 8.3 showing the relationship between race and voting for a sample of 100 people. (The row, coluxnn, and table totals are shown because they will he needed in the computation,) The observed f ~ e quencies are the number of cases each cell would contain if there were no relatz'tznship between the varkbles, given tl-re existing totals for each row and each column. In this table it is easy to see how the expected frequencies are determined, Since the overall distribution of the vote is split evenly between the parties, a perfect nonrelationship would mean that both racial g o u p s were evenly split as welt. In most tabtes, the value of tl-re expected frequencies is not so obvitrus. Although one could take the proportion of torai cases in each c o h n and then multiply it by the column tcttal, a quicker metl-rod tl-rat achieves the sane result is this:

(6))

fe

= (row

total x column total) t table total.

BOX 8.3 Compura~onof Clni-Square Observed Frequencies RACE NorzWj3il.e white (total's) VOTE Rep,

Dem.

STEP 1

L

40

IQ)

30

20

STEP 2

Expected Frequencies RACE NoniVhi~c:white (to~als)

(58) VOTE Kej>. (SO) Dcnz,

STEP 3

STEP 4

3.5

15

(58)

35

1.5

(SO)

STEP 5

O-te

(6 P

(6*-fePfJ

40

50~701100=35

40-35=5

(5)"=25

2.5135=0,71

10

.50~30/100=1.5

10-IS=--S

(-5)"=2

S2S/lS=1.67

30

5 0 ~ " 71./(10=35 50~301100=15

30-35=-5

(-.5)2=2.!i

20-I5=5

(5)"=25

25135=0.17;1 2.5115=1,67

20

fc

*-fp

For the upper left cell in the example (wl-ritelRepubiican), the computation would be fe = (50 x 70) i 200 = 35. The results for the other mIls and the remaining steps in the table are shown in Box 8.3, Setting up a table like that in Box 8.3 is recoxnmended when computing chi-square. In step 1, the observed frequencies from the original table are listed, fn step 2, the expected frequencies are cornpured as si~own.In step 3, the difference between the first two columns is calculated. (Note that the (fc,- fe) column in srep 3 must always total to zero.) 117 step 4, the values in the previous cslu r n are squared Nhich has the effect of eliminating the xninus signs), In step 5, the squared values from the previous column are each divided by the value of fe from step 2 in that line. Finally, srep

6 entails tcrtaling the values in step 5, which produces the value of chi-squt~re.In this exaxnple, chi-squt~reis 4.76. As noted earlier, the value of chi-square does not mean much in itself. In order ttr determine the prob~bility,it is necessary to consult a prc~babl'lity of chi-square table, a version of which is reproduced in Table 8 - 1 , Before looking up the value of chisquare in the table, though, one more calculation is needed: The degrees of freedom (do in the original table must be computed. This is done by multiplying the number of rows minus one by the x~umberof columns ininus one: df = (r - l f (c - I f . In the above exampfe, in which the table has twr) rows and two columns, the calculation is as follows: df = (2 - 1) ( 2 - I ) = 1, This means that we look to row I in the degrees of freedom columr~on the left side of the table, F r t ~ ~there, n we look across the table to see where our chi-square value of 4.67 would best fit. We see that it falls between 3.841, which is in the .OS coltirnn, and 5,412, in the .02 column. This means that the probability (p) associated wit11 our chi-square value is between that for 3.841, which is .OS, and that for 5.412, which is -02; hence .Q$ > p z .02. Recalling the discussion of significance in Chapter 6, we can conclude that this reiarionshiy is significant because the protlability of such a relationship occurring by chance in a random sa~npleis less than .05. When using a probability of chi-square table, you may sornetimes find that the chi-square you h a w calculated is larger than any value in the appropriate fine, This means that the probahility is less than the lowest probability found in the table. In Tabfe 8.1, this would mean that p p (significant)

8. Since phi requires only nominal variables, it is always appropriate, Since Min(r - 1, c - 1 ) = 1, Cramer" V would be the same as phi. 10, Tlzere is a moderately weak significant positive relationship between education and liberal ideology, The more education people have, they more likely they are t o be liberal.

Exet-6.i~H 1. Income

2. Yes, Lambda requires only nominal variables, so it may aiways he used. 3, h = 4 9 + 4 9 + 1 9 = 1 1 7 a = 11 c 9 c 1 7 c 1 9 + 2 3 e 7 + 8 +1 5 c 3 = 112

117-112. =- S = .04 Lambda = 117 127 4, No. Gamma requires two ordinal variables, Altl-rough income is ordinal, vote is nominal and not a dichotomy.

S. Not applicable, Q, In terms of level of measurexnent, chi-squt~rerequires oniy llominal variables, so it always appropriate, But it is valid as a significance test m l y if the data come from a random sample.

Nominal and Ordinal Statistics

fo

f,

&-C 6.1

(fo- fJ2

(fo- fJ2/f,

37.21

2.34

22

15.9

19

19.9

-0.9

0.81

0.04

8

13.2

-5.2

27.04

2.05

11

15.9

-4.9

24.01

1.51

23

19.9

3.1

9.61

0.48

15

13.2

1.8

3.24

0.25

9

6.2

2.8

7.84

1.26

7

7.7

-0.7

0.49

0.06

3

5.1

-2.1

4.41

0.86

17

21.1

-4.1

16.81

0.80

25

26.4

-1.4

1.96

0.07

23

17.5

5.5

30.25

1.73 10.19 = chi-square

df = (3 - 1)(4- 1)= 6, 8.588 c chi-square c 10.645, .20 c p c .l0 (not significant)

8. Since phi requires only nominal variables, it is always appropriate. Since Min(r - 1, c - 1)= 2, Cramer's V would be a better measure. 9. Phi2 = 10.19 + 182 = .06 V = .06 i2 = .03 10. There is a weak relationship that is not significant. For the sample data, there is a tendency for people with higher incomes to be more likely to vote for Dole and Perot, and the lower people's income, the more likely they are to vote for Clinton or to be nonvoters.

1. Both variables are ordinal, so lambda, phi, and gamlBa could a'iI be used. 2 , GI-ime rate is ordinal, and largest minority group is nominal and not a dictlotsm!; so only lambda and phi could be used (and Cramer" V would he better tl-ran phi). 3, Social class is ordinal and vote is a dichc~tomy,so lambda, gaEBrna, and phi c ~ u l da11 be used. 4. Per capita GNP is ordinal, and religio~~ is nominral and not a dichotomy, so only lambda and phi coufd be used (and Gramer" V would he a better measure than phi), 5. Gerider is a dichotomy, and vote is nominal and i s not a dichotomy, so only lambda and phi could be used,

Interval Statistics

In this chapter we will fook at statistics that evaluate the relationship between two interval varialzles. These statistics are derived from a procedure called regresszon; they and their multivariate extensions fcr>veredin Chapter 10) are by far the mc-1st commonly used statistics in contemporary poliricaf scietice research.

The Regression Line The idea of regressir~ilis best illustrated with the use of scattergrams, which were introduced in Chapter 6, The examples of ""perfect" relationships shown there were instances in which all of the points representing the cases fell along single strai&t lines. If all relationships between variables we= perfect in that way-that is, perfecrly correlated-we wr~uldnot need many statistics. But in the imperfect world of the social sciences, mast relationships are far from perfect, and even careful visual inspection of a scattergram will tell us only so much about the relationship between the variables plotted. The key idea of regessian i s that there is a single, b6best-fitting,'a Iir-re that describes the relationship betweet1 the variables better than any other line would, Let us assume, for now, that this fine is a scraight one. Regression statistics define this as the least-sqgnrrrs line, that is, if we he 171.easur.e the distance of each case from that line and sq~lareeach ualzdc, the@the total wzll be less thart what the mtal wogM be fi~ran),ott~erh e , Fortunately, we do not have to du this with a rulier; there are formulas to determine the exact locatictil of the Iine and a measure of how good a fit the line is to the points.

Any straight line can be completeiy described by two facts: the 10cation of a single point through which it passes and the slope or angle at which it rises or falls, The equaticrn far a straight line may be written as Y = a + bX, where Y is the dependent variable, X is the independent variable, a is the height of the line where it crosses the y-axis, and h is the slope, Box 9.1 shows an example of a scattergram with the feast-squares fine. T e equation for the line is Y = 0.7 + 1.l)(;,This rneans that the line crosses the y-axis at a height of 0.7 and goes up by 1.1 for every increase of 1 unit in X, How did we determine the values of a and b? There are formulas for each, The value of b, the slope, is cafcnlated as follows:

where X and Y are values of the independent and dependent varie rcases, Sigma (C)9the stlmmation sign, ahles and N is the n u ~ ~ bof indicates that one rnust add up the value for all cases, Nate that ZXV is nof the same as /GX)JZU).GXY means that one must first multiply the value of X by the value of 3' for each case and then add up these producrs for all cases, (EX)JI;Y) means that one first adds up the miginal values of X and Y and then multiplies the products, SirniIarly, Z X q s different from (XX)L. To calculate b, a, and PearsonS r (discussed below), we need to find the value of five sums: those of the original values of X (i.e., E X ) and 3' (i.e., EY), those of the squared values of each variable (i.e., ZXband ET2), and tlnat of the product oi X times Y (i.e., CXY). W also use N, the number of cases, It is useful to set up a table like the one belou., which uses the data for the scattergram in Box 9,1 to itlustrate the procedure.

STEP 1 X Y 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 5 6 Sums:

"L

S20

STEP 2 X2 I 4 9 16 25 55

STEP 3 Y2 4 9 9 36 36 94

STEP 4 XV 2 Q 9 24 30 71

BOX 9.1 Example of a Scattergram and Regression Line

In step 1, we take the original values of X and V and add up each coluxnn, giving us ZX = 1.5 and ZV = 20, In step 2, we square each of the values of X and add up the column to get Z X L 5.5. In step 3, we do the same for the original values of Y to get Cl' = 94, In step 4, we multiply the value of X by the value of: Y for each case and then add up the column to get EXU = 73, Now we place these sums, along with the number of cases (N = 5) in the furrnula for b.

To calculate the value of a, often called the corzstanf or the yintercept, the formula is:

Thus, using the figures for this example, we have:

Another example of these computatic->ilsis showil in Box 9.2. The slt~peof the line, b, gives us a very important piece of information. T h e slope is a direct measure of the effect of the ipzdependent variable on the dependent variable. And whether it has a plus or a minus sign tells us whether the relationship is positive or negative. However, it has the disadvantage of being highly Jetpendent on the units in which tl-re variables are measured. Age can be measured is days and moilths as well as years; income in dollars, thousands of dollars, other currencies, artd so on, Making a different choice of units could drastically affect the value of b. For that reason, it is common to compute a standardized version of the slope called beta, a measure that will be discussed in Chapter 10.

Although the slope of the line is important, it does not give us a measure of strength of association in the way that other measwes such as gamma and phi do. For that we use a statistic called tlse Pearson product-moment correlatz'on, or Pearson's r, (It is so widely used that it is ofren reported simply as '"r,"and rehrences only to a ""correlation" probabfy refer to it as ts"ei1.j Pearson" r assumes that there are t w o interval variables, Its range is from -1 to +l,It is a measure of association, that is, of the strelsgth of the relatiorzship. Essentially, it measures how closely the case points cluster around the regression line. In this sense, it is a measure of hr>w good a predictor one variable is of the other, As was the case with Phi" rr is isqgal t o the pmporciorz of vurinnce in one varlialale explained b y the other. This idea of ""explained variance" is a crucial one in statistical theory. If we knew nothing about any other variables, then the best predictor of the value of every case of Y, the dependent variable, would be the mean value of Y, For example, in Box 9.1, picture a horizontal line across the scattergram at the height of the trtean, which in this example is 4 (computect by adding up the values of V and dividing by Nj,The total variance in U would be the sum of the sq~zareddeviations of the actual cases from this rrtean line. To the

BOX 9.2 Example of Regression and Computations of b and a %

%

URBAN TURNOUT X X2 Y 0 100 90 20 50 30 40 70 60 40 500

SUMS:

80 30 50 70 60 40 50 50 30 40 500

Y2

0 6,400 10,000 900 8,100 2,500 400 4,900 3,600 2,500 900 1,600 2,500 1,600 4,900 2,500 3,600 900 1,600 1,600 33,600 27,400

XY 0 3,000 4,500 1,400 3,000 1,200 2,000 3,500 1,800 1,600 22,000

90 80 W

9

U

r:

60

t;

50

J

Y = 67.5 -.35X

70

C* I I

40

0

30

F:

20

E

•

.

.

10 0 , 0

20

40

h0

80

100

120

Percent Urban

N CXY - ( C X )(CY) - 10(22,000)- (500)(500) N CX"(CX)L 10(33,600)-(SO0)' -30,000 = - 220,000 - 250,000 -.35 336,000 - 250,000 86,000

b=

a=

X Y - bX X - 500 - (-.35)(500) - 500 + 175 - 675 W

N

10

10

10

W

67.5

extretlt that an independent variable, X, is of some value as a predictor, tlzen the deviations around tlze least-squares regression fine will he less, Pearson's r2 directly measures this improvement in prediction. The formula for Pearson's s is similar to that for b and a in that it uses the sums of the values, tlzeir squares, and tlzeir products:

Although it may not seem immediately obvious from a look at the lormuia, note that Pearson" r is symmetrical. Although the lormuia requires that one variable be designated as independent ( X ) and the other as dependent (V), the answer will he the same no matter wlzich role the variables are placed in, To calculate r for the previous example, take the results of steps 1 through 4, which yielded X = IS, V = 20, X" 660, V" 94, XU =: '71, and N = 5. f ubstituting these values into the formula, we have:

This value or r, -93, shows that there is, as we would expect from the scattesgrarR?a very strong positive relationship, The proportion of variance explained is indicated by r" which is .SG. We can also test the significance of Pearson" r far significance using the F-mt.io, or F.-test, This test assumes, of course, that the data come from a randoxn sample. The value of F is computed as fcsltows:

Usirtg the values of r = 9 3 and

N = 5 from the previous exarrtple,

This value of F, like chi-square values, requires a table to determine the prohabilir):, which is reproduced in Table: 9.1. The table is used much like tl-re chi-square table, thougl-r in this one, M - 2 is the number of degrees of freedom. For this example, we go down to line 3 and look across. Our F value of 18-43 wt>uld fall between 10.13 and 34.12. Therefore, the probability would be between .OS and .01 and would be considered significant, This illustrates tl-re fact that even a tiny random sample of five cases can produce a sigrlificant correlation-if that correlation happens to be very strong, as this one was. Note in Table 9.1 that in the N - 2 column, after the values reach 30, they skip to 4O,f;O, 120, and then to ilafinir5i; This is silnyly ftrr convenience; as inspection of the values in the body of tl-re table shows, the numbers change very little, so including ir-ztermediate values would be a waste of space, Wheri you have an N - 2 value that does not appear in the table, the best way to proceed would be to use the next Lowest available value, Thus if N - 2 were SO, one could use the figures for line 40, and this would alrnost always lead to the correct conclusion. Box 9.3 summarizes the critical infarmation about Pearson" r and preserlts an additional exa~rtpleof its computation a1-d the Ftest, Other examples can be found in the exercises at the end of the chapter.

Nonlinear Relationships Thus far we have assumed tl-rat a ""perfect" relationsl-rip between two interval variables would take the form of a straight line a n a scattergram, But this is not necessarily the case far perftect relationships in the real world, Consider Figure 9.1, which shows the path of m object hurled in the air. It is a perfect relationship in that knowing the horizontal disrai-zce traveIed enables you to predict the height perfectly However, this path is not described by a straight fine, but by a curve (a parabola). This illustrates why it is impartant always to look at a scattergram when investigating interval re-

148

TARLE 9.1 Probability of F

PROBABILITY LEVELS N-2

.05

.01

.001

1 2 3 4 5

161.4 18.51 10.13 7.71 6.61

4,052.00 98.49 34.12 21.20 16.26

405,284.00 998.50 167.50 74.14 47.04

6 7 8 9 10

5.99 5.59 5.32 5.12 4.96

13.74 12.25 11.26 10.56 10.04

35.51 29.22 25.42 22.86 21.04

11 12 13 14 15

4.84 4.75 4.67 4.60 4.54

9.65 9.33 9.07 8.86 8.68

19.69 18.64 17.81 17.14 16.59

16 17 18 19 20

4.49 4.45 4.41 4.38 4.35

8.53 8.40 8.28 8.1 8 8.10

16.12 15.72 15.38 15.08 14.82

21 22 23 24 25

4.32 4.30 4.28 4.26 4.24

8.02 7.94 7.88 7.82 7.77

14.59 14.38 14.19 14.03 13.88 corrtirfrres

NOX'P.;: This table is destgncd for tesrir~gsignificance whcrc there is only one independent variahte. Table 10,1 may be used for rn~xftipleand partial correlations, Larger tables can be h u n d in many comprel~ensivc statistics texts,

Konald A, Fisher and Frank Vater;, Statistical Tables for Biulogzcal, Agricultural, l a d Medical Research, Sixth Editzon (Edinburgh: Clliver and Bayd, 19631, pp.53, SS, 57, O R, A., Fisher and E Yates.

SOURCE:

Kcprintect by permissitjn of Pearson Education, l,irnited.

fatianshigs, In an example like this one, the linear correlation and regression statistics described in the previous section (h and r) would indicate that there was nt->relationship between height and distlance. Viewing the scattergram could prevent accepting that erroneous concIusiotl. A variety of techniques-all beyond the scope of this hor>k+atl he used to analyze nonlinear or curviLinectr relationships. (The simplest approach for this example would be to divide the data at the midpoint of the independent variable and analyze each hall separately with linear regression, which would then yield a reasonahlp correct analysis.) But if one rlever looked ar the scaaergram, tlre need for this might never be apparent.

BOX 9.3 Information About Pearson's r, the F-Test, and an Example of ?'heir Computation Statistic: 13earsonk r Type: Measure of association Assumptions: Two interval variables Range: -1 to +l Interpretation: 13roportion of variance explained (r2) Formula:

Exaxnple (Continued from Box 5 3 2 ) ZX=500 EY=500 CXL33,6;00

N=IQ

F-test Assumptions: Random sampling

Formula:

F = 1 -rZ

CYZ=27,400 EXY=22,000

Example (from above)

532 .r F .c: 11.26, so .05

p > .01 (significant)

Conclusian: There is a strong significant negative relationship between % U r h n and Oio Turnout, The more urban an area, the lower its level of turnout.

Relationships Between Interval and Nominal Variables There are many instances wl-rere one may want to evalriate the relationship between a nc.>minaIor ordinal variable and an interval variable, qpically this occurs when we are co~nparingtwo groups defined by the noxninal or ordinal variable t o see whether they are &&rent a n the interval variable. VVe might, for example, have a sample of individuals and wish to determine wl-rether the difference in income between males and females was large enough to be considered significant. A number of statistical tests could be used tc_tdo this, such as the t-test and diffireace of merlgs, Altl~oughsignificance tests are the main s a tistics used far the comparisons of groups, a measure of strength of association similar to Pearson" r railed eta is useful. where there is a passibility that the relationship is curvilinear,

Exercises Answers to these exercises follow It is suggested that you attempt to cc~mpletethe exercises hefclre lor>kingat the answers.

Distance Tra veled

Using the data in the following table a n the relationship between years of education and nuxnber of times a person voted in the past five elections, complete items 2-5. k a r s of Education

# of Wtes

Years of Education

# of Votes

Years of Education

Jf of Votes

1 , Draw a scattergram. What sort of relationship does there appear to be? 2. Carngute b and a and draw the regression line on tl-re scattergram. 3. Compute Pearson's r. 4. Conduct the F-test and dererrnine the significance. S. Draw a conc2usioil about the relationship,

Using tile data in the failowing table on the relationship between per capita income (in thousands of dollars) and percentage of a nation%budget spent a n defense, complete items 1-5 korn Exercise A. Xncarnc

Dcfe'ense

Income

Defmse

Income

Dcfensc

Suppose a random sample of seventy-two counties showed a value for Pearsor~'~ c of: .l 3 between urbar~izatior~ and crime, Conduct a n F-test to determine the significance of this re'latiartship,

Suggested Answers to Exercises

Scattergram for Exercise A

lnterval Statistics

EDUCATION AND VOTES X 8 9 10 16 15 12 13 12 12 14 16 10 11 12 12 182

Y 4 1 0 5 5 3 3 2 4 4 4 2 3 5 0 45

X-' 64 81 100 256 225 144 169 144 144 196 256 100 121 144 144 2,288

Y2 16 1 0 25 25 9 9 4 16 16 16 4 9 25 0 175

XY 32 9 0 80 75 36 39 24 48 56 64 20 33 6 0 576

(TOTALS)

4.67

C

F C 9.07, so .05 > p > .Q1 (significant!)

5. There is a strong and significant positive relatiorlship between education and frequency of voting. The rnore education people have, the more electioils they tend to vote in. If the data were horn, a random sample, we could conclude that tl-ris positive relationship occurs in tl-re popufation from which the sample was drawn,

Per Capita Income ($1,000~)

Interval Statistics

156

INCOME AND DEFENSE

X

Y

X2

Y2

XY

10 3 2 1 20 30 25 7 6 4 12 9 22 15

10 5 1 3 15 15 16 8 7 6 11 3 14 15

100 9 4 1 400 900 625 49 36 16 144 81 484 225

100 25 1 9 225 225 256 64 49 36 121 9 196 225

100 15 2 3 300 300 400 56 42 24 132 27 308 225

166

N = 14

129

3,074

1,541 1,934

5. There is a scrong and significant positive relationship between a nation's per capita income and defense spending. The higher the inctlt~e,the more spent t ~ ndefense. ff these data were from a random srrxnple of nations, we could conclude that there is a positive reIatisnship between per capita income and defense spending aERong nations in general.

F .= 4.00, so p > .05 (NOT significant) Although tl-rere is a relationship between urbanization and crirne for the counties in this sample, we cannclt conclude that there is any relationship for the whole psptllaticzn from which this sample was drawn.

This page intentionally left blank

tivariate Statistics

This chapter presents techniques for dealing with the analysis of the relatioilship between three or more varidbfes. Give11the nature of tine social and political world, we freq~zetltlyface situations where there are several, or even many, possible causes of some pl-renomenon. Just think how many different factors might go into an individual's voting decisit>n, ranging from the party identification adopted in childhood, to a variety of a t t i t ~ ~ d eand s opinions, to news broadcasts and campaign appeals immedia tely before the electio~~, Sorting out potential independent variables is largely a matcer of controlling-and, as yaw know from Chapter 3, the use of control variables is essential in the correlational research design, Trr this chapter you will. learn techniques for iartyositlg those controls. We will begin with the method for nominal and ordinal category variables and then turn to intervai techniques.

Controlling with Contingency Tables As you have already learned, relationships between categorized nominal and ordinal variabtes are analyzed using contingency tables. Contingency tables also may be used to control for third variables, This is fairly easily done: For each category of the control variable, a table is constructed sl-rowing tlte relationship between the independent and dependent variables, Each of these tables may then he presented in terms of percentages and appropriate statistics may be calculated. Note that to evaluate the effect of the control variable, it is Ilecessary to compare the contrt>l tables to a table without a control variabie,

Box 10.1 illustrates this procedure for a simple case i r ~which all variables are dichotoxnized. Suppose we wanted to see wl-retl-rerthe relationship between religion and voting was affected by an individual's inco~rtelevel. First we would construct a table showing the relatiansl-rip between the independent variable (religion) and tlze dependent variable (vt~tef, Then we would construct the same table for each category (high and low) of the control variable (incssrte). Note that the frequencies far each cornbination of the independent and depildent variables (such as Protestant Republican) in the control tables add up to the frequency in the original table. Each tahlc could then be expressed in terms of percentages and appropriate statistics computed, For this exaxnple, larnbda, gamxna, and phi are reported. (Assuming the data were from a randc~msample, chi-square could have heerr used, but with the small nu~nberof cases it would not have been significmt,) What does the example in Box 10.1 shc-IW?For all of the cases, there is a weak relatio~ishipbetweeri religion and vote, Protestants tend to vote Republican, and Catholics tend to vote Democratic, Whe.tl we look at each of the control rabies, the same is true for both higher- and iowe~incomeresyondet~ts,The statistics measuring the strength of tl-re association vary slightly, but basically they show the same relatioilship as in the original table, This outcome demonstrates that the control variable (income) had little or n o effect on tl-re rela tionship between the independent variable (religion) and the dependent variable (vote), In other words, the effect of religious preference s n the vote was tot due ICIa person's income*

What Can Happen When You Control Several things can happen to a relationship between two variahles when you control for a third variable, Box 10.2 illustrates this with an exa~rtpleof the relationship betweeii income and voting as we control far h u r other characteristics of the individtials. The ""uriginal" ttahle for all of the cases (part A) shows that there is a moderatefy strong, hut significant, re'lationship: People with higher incomes were xnore likely to vote Republican, The first possible outcome of controlling is that nothing happens, that is, the relationship is unchanged. This is shown in part B of BOX 10.2 wl-ren we coltcrol for gender. The tables far xnales and females are exactly the same and therefore have the same strength of relationship, (The chi-square values are srrtaller because the control ta-

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 61

BOX 10.1 Coneofling Using Contingency Tables MCOME RELXG'N VOTE XNCOME RELZG9N VOTE XNCQME RELZG9N VOTE

High High I,ow 1,ow High

13rtlr. Catt~, Prot. Cath, Pror.

Rep.

Dem. Rep. L>ern.

Dem.

High I,ow High 1,ow I,ow

Carh. Pror. Cath,

13rtlr. Carh,

Rep, Rep. Tlern. l9em. Rep.

High I,ow I,ow High I,ow

13rtlr. Cath, Prot. Cath, Pror.

Rep.

Dem. Rep. L>ern. Dem.

B, Frequencies CQPITTROLLLPJG FOR INCOm ALL CASES ( H 0 CONTROLS)

RELIGION VOTE Prcit Cat/? Rep 5 2 IJrm 3 5

HIGH INCOME

KELXGXQN VOTE Prot Cath Rep 2 1 Dem 1 3

LOW WCOME

KELIGlQN VOTE Prot Ckth Rep 3 1 Ilent 2, 2,

C. Percellrage Tables and Statistics CQPITTROLLLPJG FOR INCOm ALL CASES ( H 0 CONTROLS)

HIGH INCOME

LOW WCOME

RELIGION VOTE Prcit Cat/? Rep 62% 29% IJrm 38 71 100% 100% N= 8 7

KELXGXQN W T E Prot Ckth Rep 67% 2.5% Ilent 33 75 100% 100% S 4

KELIGlQN W T E Prcit Rep 60% Ilet~t 40 100%

I,ambda ;: .29 Gamma = +.61

1-nmbda ;: .33 Gamma = +.71 Phi2 = .l 7

I,ambda = .25 C;amrna = +.50 Phi2 = .l 9

Phi"

-12

S

Cath 33% 67 IOOenzc>crat 40 68 1,ambda = .20 Gamma = - 1 - 3 3 f3hiL .04 Chi2 = 20.00 .001 > p

FEMALES INCOME HigCs Lout VOTE Repzdbliccan 60% 40% L>enzc>crat 40 68 1,ambda = .20 Gamma = - 1 - 3 3 1% = .04 C h i b 20.00 .001 > p

C. Relationship Weakened: Controlling for Ideulr~gy LIBERALS INCOME Low N2gi1 VOTE Repzdbliccan 36% 36%

CONSERVATIVES INCOME Lout High VOTE Repzdbliccan 63% 63%

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 63

Gamma = .Ol Phi" ..00 CbiL= .01 p > .C30

Gamma = .&l Phi2 = .Cl0 Chi2 = .@l p > .C30

D. Relationsl~ipStrengthened: Czantrolling for Education COLLEGE INCOME High Low VOTERepublican 58% 1 1 % Democrat 42 89

HIGH SCHOOL INCOME High 1 . o ~ VOTE Republican 86% 43% Democrat 14 89

1,arnbda = .I8 Garnma = +.g3 f3hi2= .07 Chi2 = 36.54 .@Q1 >p

1,arnbda = .OS Garnma = +.78 f3hi2= .05 Chi2 = 24.55 .@Q1> p

E, Interaction: Controlling for Region

NON-SOUTH SOUTH INCOME INCOME High Low High Low VOTE Republzcan 75% 17% VOTE Republzcan 33% 75% D e n z o m ~ 67 25 100% loo%, N = 320 300 N--180 170 1,axnbda = .l8 1,axnbda = .08 1,arnbda = .SS 1,arnbda = .48 Garnma = +.g8 Garnma = -.71 f3hi2= .03 f3hi2= .17 Chi2 = 21 , l 6 Chi" 66.61 .@01> p .001 > p

The second possibility is that the relationship is weakened, perhaps to the point sf disappearing. This is shown in part C, where we control: for ideology. A glance at the percentage tables shows that within the income categories there was no difference betweerl the voting of high- and Iow-income individuals, and this is

confirmed by all of the statistics. How is this possible? ft c m e about because most of the higl-r-incoxnerespondents were conservatives and most of the low-income respondents were liberals (as can be seen by the N's in the control tables), An3 since there was a strong tendency for conservatives to vote Republicail and liberals to vote Democratic, income did not make any difference within those categories of ideology When we have this sort of outcome, we conclude tl-rat the original relationship between the independent and dependent variable was caused by the control variable. If the relationship was weakened but did not disappear, we would say that it was partially caused by the corztrol variable, In this exaxnple, where the original relationship completely disappeared, tl-re control variable apparently was a complete cause of the relatir~nship. fn real-lik situations it is rare that a relatitznship would disappear as completely as in this example, but significance tests like chi-square (assuming raildom sampling) tell us whether the relationship still exists or not. There are two possible interpretations of this example. One is that the relationship is sptlcrioas-that the indepelldent variahle really does not affect the dependent. But it is also possible that the independent variable is an intervenzng factor between the other two variables. This is the more logical iilterpretatioil in this example, It would be reasonable to suppose that income affects a person's ideology and then ideology affects the vocing decision. Determining which interpretation applies in a particular case involves the assumptions one makes about the causal priority of the variables. This reasoning is presented in detail later in tl-ris chapter. A third possible outcome of controlling is that the origi~~al relationship is strengthened. This is illustrated by the example in part W of Box 10.2, where we control for education. As the percentage tables show3 the contrast in voting between high- and low-income responderits is greater within the college and high school education categories than it was when alt respondents were pooled in the original table, and this is confirmed by the higher value of the correlational statistics. This ineans that the effect of the control variable was to ""kde" h e relationship between tl-re independent and dependent variable to some extetlt. H w can this happen? It occurs beca~zsethe control variable has a relatiansl-rip with the dependent variable zn the opposite direction from that of the independent variable. In this example, re-

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 65

spondents with college experience actually tend to vote more for Wexnocrats, But there is a strong positive relationship between education and income; people who went to college tend t o have reduce higher incsmes. Therefore, the effect of education was the apparent correlation between income and voting, This makes an important point: Even when there appears to be little or no relationship between the indeperident and dependent variables when looking at all the rases at once, it may be valuable to control for other factors, The final possible owcome of controlling is that the relationship is dift'erent within the various categories of the control varialsle, Part E of Box 10.2 shows an example of this phenomenon, which is called interaction. Whe.tl we coiltrol for region, we see that the relationship between income a i d vote becomes stronger for nonSouth respondents, but actually reverses direction for respondents who live in the South. Among these southerners, high income is associated with Democratic votkg and IOW income with Repuklican voting, Interyreting interactive resulrs is difficult, but it often suggests that we need to look more closely at other factors that might account for the difference between the categories of the control variable. In this example of income, voting, and region, we might need to look at variables such as the respondent's race and religion, because the North and South have different distributions on those characteristics. Althougl-r.the exaxnple in part E would not he realistic today, it might have been found in earlier decades when there was a tendency h r Africa11 Americans (most of whom were low-income southerners) to vote Republican, wilereas highincome whites in the Somh typically suppr>rteda conservative Democra tic party, Additional examples of csntrof ling with contingency tables are found in Exercises A and B at tire end of the chapter. Given the range of effects third variables can have on relationskips, it is extremely important to control far additional variables, particulariy in the cc>rrelationd design. Although contrt.>iling techniques are riot an inherent part of the experimental and quasi-experirrtental designs, they can also be applied to tl-te data resulting from those methods, Flow does one know which variables should he selected as controlsflhere is no simple answer, for the decision must be based on our tlreoretical understanding of the suhject under study as well as on past research findings,

But it is important to remember one principle: A control variable can affect a relui~ionshipo ~ l ify it is velrzted to l>o~h the independent and depende~ztvariablese For example, if there is no difference between geographic regiolls and the relative proportion of males and females (and therefore no correiation between region and gender), then there would he nr> purpose in using gender as a control variable when investigating the effect of region on anything else. Our examples here have looked only at cc~ntrolfingfor one variable at a time. But it is theoretically possible to control simultaneously for the effect of several varisltltes using contingency tables. This is done by Looking at the independentldegendent relationship within each possible combination of the categories on two or more control vclriables. Thus, the example in Box 10.2 rllipht look like this:

&$ale

/"

Liberal

/

\ '

.

\

L i bertll

C:ot~servative

/ \

''

/ \

C:ot~servative

/

"--\

H.S. 1 , l\, N-S S(>, \ N-S SO. N-S SO. ! \ N-S So. / I N-S SO, N-S SO. N-S So, N-S S(>, College H.S.

\

I\\

College

\

H.S.

C p l l ~ g e H.S. /

\

Cyllege

i'/ \

The result would be sixteen tables, each relatir-rg income and voting for one of the combinations of' categories, such as inale conservatives with a college education living in the South. Although this could easily he do~le,especially by a computer, the drawback is that each of the resuiting tables would be based on relatively few cases, especially if some control variables l-rad highly unequal category frequencies. ~Voreover,the control variables in s have been dichotc~mies, the exatrtples we have looked at t h ~ faT but it is comxnon for control variables to l-rave three or more categories, Therefore, unless one bas an extremely large data set, contrcllling simultaneously for several variahles requires another approach. The interval tecl-rniques described in the next section provide such an alternative.

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 67

Controlling with Interval Variables: Partial Correlations The procedure presented in Chapter 9 for regression and calculation of the Pearson correlation for interval variables can be extended in several ways to look at the relationships between three or more variahles. The simplest: technique, and the one most similar to the results of controlling with contingency tables, is partldl correlation, The partial correlatio~~ measures the relationship betweer1 an independent variable and a dependent variable when one or rBore ocl-rer variables are controlfed. The partiai correlation coefficient is simply an extension of Pearson" r. It requires that the variables (three or more) he interval, Jt has the safBe range of -1 to + 1 and the same interpretation, tl-rat is, the squared value is equal to the proportion of variance explained, S~lbscriptsare used tct distinguish the different correlations involved. Althoud~normally 13earsonScorrelation is referred to simply as r, it must now be designated with subscripts, for example, r,,, meaning that it is the correlation hemeen variable Y and variable X, Any convenient symbols, wl-retl-rer fetters or numbers, may be used for this pwrpose. It is customary to list the dependent variable first, Mulrivariate analyses often use a correhtion rutatrh. This is a rectangular listing of a set of variables, so that the cell at which the row and column for two variables intersect reports the correlation coefficie~~t ftrr those variables. An example appears belowVV ELIFSCAnON

E E~ciz~ccati:~'u~z(E) 1-00 Irzccznzc?(1) .81 1,ibercalkm (J,) .43 Vote ((V) -23 re, = .81, rle= -43, r\re = -.23,

LWCQME

LIBERALISM

I I; .8 1 .4 3 1.00 -.S4 -. 54 1.00 -, 72 .4 1 = -.54> r\rf = -.72, rvl=-41

VOTE

V

-.23 -.72 .4 1 1.00

Note that tl-re values alr~ngthe diagonal are all 1.00. This is because they each represent the correlation of a variable with itself. Each of the other numbers appears twice because the correlation of

variable X with variable Y is the same as the correlation of variable Y with variable X . Therefore, it is common to see correlation matrices presented as only one diagonal half, The line under the matrix shows the use of subscripts to report the saiirte inhrmation. The correlation between education (E) and income (X) is written as re,, and the matrix shows it to be ,81. The correlation betweell liberalism and educatioli is r, = .4J, Wit11 this natation system, it is relatively easy to compute a partial correlation Erom the "'simple" "arson correlaticrns between variables. Here we will look only at the formula for the first-order p~artiikl,that is, the corvel~tionbetween the independerlt ai"ld depende~tvariables with o ~ l one y COF~~;Y(ZIviarlble, Tlie formula is:

where the subscript y denotes the dependent variables, x the indepeildeilt variable, and z the cc.,iltrol variable. As partial correlations can have any number of control variables, a period is used to separate them from the independent and dependent variables (e.g., r,.,,,). The iolfowrng example ilibrstrates the computation of partial r, Suppose we took a randoxn sample of I00 counties in eke United States and found that the dependent variable, crime rate (C), and the indeperident variable, per capita income (Jj, had a correlation, r,,, of .20, seemingly indicating that areas with higher-income residents had somewhat higher crime rates. HCWever, we wish to control for percentage urban (U). To do this, we need to employ the correlations of both cri~neand incorne with percentage urban, Suppose these were r,, = .6O and c,, = .80.'To cofrtpute the partial, we need t o substitute these three simple correlations into the formula above, as follows:

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 69

The result shows that co~itrollingfor urbanization clearly had an effect on the relationship between income and crime. The original correlation was positive jr,, = .20), but the partial, contrt.>iling for urbanimtion, was stronger and negative jr,,., = --.58). What occurred here? Altkougli the initial relationship between crirrte and i l ~ c ~ m ievel e was surprisingly negative, we see that an even stronger correlate of crime was urbanization; the more urban an area, the higher the crime rate, And the rnore urban the county, the higher the income. When we control for urbanization, thereby removing its effects, we see that the real relationship betweeri i n c o ~ ~and e crime is negative, that is, the higher the income, the lower the crixne rate. Box 10.3 summarizes the critical infarmation on partial r and gives another example of its cornputatio~,Additional exarllgles can be h u n d in Exercise C at the end of the chapter.

Sign$cance Test f i r Partial u Assuming that the data are from a random sample, the F-test can be used to determine significmice in much the same way as with 13earsonkreThere are two differences, however, both resulting from the fact that a partial correlarian is based on more variables than a simple Pearson's re The forrnula for X; is:

where N is the nuxnber of cases and k is the number of independent and control variables. This is actualfy the same formula as was used to calculate F for the simple Pearson's r, but since there was only one independent variable, the value of (N - k - I ) was always fN - 2). The formula above can be used Eor partials with any number of control variables, Also dilferent is cllac in this case we must use a probability of F table that takes into account the number of variables as well as the number of cases. This necessitates a different table for each level of probability. The table for the .OS level is reproduced in Table 10.1.

BOX 20.3 XnformL-ionAbout Padal and Muldple Correlations, the F-Test, and Examples of Computations Statistic: Partial r Type: Measure of association Assumption: Three or more interval variables Range: -1 to + 1 Interpretation: Proportion of variance explained (r,,.,L) Formula:

Exaxnple: Given tl-re following correlation matrix af 13earson's r's, calculate the partial correlatiw between a respondent's reported Frequency af Voting (V) with Incoxne (X), controlling for Years of Education (E), i.e., r,,,. Data are from a random sample of 500, rGTatrix af Pearsun" r 1 Income (If 1.00 Education (E) .80 Frequency of voting (V) .SO

E .80 1.00 .QO

V .50 .Q0 2.00

Conclusion: Although there was an initial fairly strong positive correlation between income and voting frequency, it almost wrupletely disappeared when educatior~was controtled for, This suggests chat the tendency Eor respondents with higher education

to vote more frequently is almost entirely due to their higher level al edmcatian. Statistic: F-test for partial R Assumption: Random sampliq Interpretation: The probability of F is the probability that the partial correlation observed in the sample data could occur by chance if there were no relationship in the population from which the sample was drawn. r;l>rmula:

Example: Using the partial correlation computed above, r,,, = .04, N = S00, and k = 2 Ithere are two independent variables). We substitute the vaiues into the formula for F:

Using Table 10.1, we locate the F value for N - k - 1 = 120 (the next-lowest to 497) and the column under the heading k = 2. The vaiue &ere is 3.07, which is much larger tlzan the E for this example. Therefore, the probability is greater than -05 and this partial correlation is not significant. Statistic: multiple R Type: Measure of association Assumption: Three or more interval variables Range: 0 to 4-1 Interpretation: Pn~portionof variance explained (RL) Formula:

Example: Using the correlation matrix in the first part of this table, we can calculate the multiple correlation of the independent: variable, voting frequency (V) with two independent variables, income (I) and education (E). The Pearsank r correlations needed are rvi = .50, rve = .&Q,and r,, = .W.

Conclusion: Income and edtlcation together explain 36 percent of the variance in kequency of voting. This is virtualIy n o improvement over the explanatory value of education alone. Statistic: F-test for multiple R Assumption: Random sampling Interpretation: The probability of F is the probabilbty that the partial correlation observed in the sample data could occur by chance if there were no relationship in the population from which the sample was drawn.

where N = sample size, and k = number of independent variables, Example: To test the multiple R previously computed for voting frequency, income, and education, we substitute the relevant values: , rv:, = .36,N = 500, and k = 2.

We then go to Table 10.1. We look down to the line to N - k - 1 = 120 (the next-lowest value to 4337") and to the coiuxnn beaded k = 2. The value there is 3.07, Since our F is much larger, we can conclude that the probability of chance occurrence i s less than .OS,Therefore, R2 is significant. 1

Tc? find the significance for the partial we just computed, we insert the values into the formul;~for F: N = 100, r = -,SS, and k = 2. This resuks in the following:

We now lr~okin Table 10.1. We go down to the fine opposite 60 (the closest one tc-,the value of 97 far N - k - 1) and look at the second column, because k, the e~umberof independent and corztrol variables is 2, We see that an F value of onfy 3.1 5 would be required to assure that the probability of chance occurrence of this relationship m u I d be less than .M, Since our F i s much iarger, we are sure that the retationship is significant at the .05 level, Other examples of the F-test for the partial correlation can he fc~undin Box 10.3 and in the Exercises at the end of the clzapter.

The Multiple Correlation Depeildent variables in social research conznzr~nlyhave several distinct but related causes. Consider, for example, an individua19svote for a presidential candidate, This decision c m be partially predicted or explained by each of a considerable number of factors, including the person" party identification, illcome, race, religion, idealog): and attitudes rovvard a numher of specific issues. But these factors are themselves interrelated; for example, a Republicail identifier will tend to have a higher inct>meand a more conservative ideology*Simply adding up the explanatory value of these separate independent

TABLE 10.1 Probability of F for Partial and Multiple Correlations (0.5 Probability Level)

k = Number of independent and control variables k = l

k=2

k=3

k=4

k=5

k=6

1 2 3 4 5

161.4 18.51 10.13 7.71 6.61

199.5 19.00 9.55 6.94 5.79

215.7 19.16 9.28 6.59 5.41

224.6 19.25 9.12 6.39 5.19

230.2 19.30 9.01 6.26 5.05

234.0 19.33 8.94 6.16 4.95

6 7 8 9 10

5.99 5.59 5.32 5.12 4.96

5.14 4.74 4.46 4.26 4.10

4.76 4.35 4.07 3.86 3.71

4.53 4.12 3.84 3.63 3.48

4.39 3.97 3.69 3.48 3.33

4.28 3.87 3.58 3.37 3.22

11 12 13 14 15

4.84 4.75 4.67 4.60 4.54

3.98 3.88 3.80 3.74 3.68

3.59 3.49 3.41 3.34 3.29

3.36 3.26 3.18 3.11 3.06

3.20 3.11 3.02 2.96 2.90

3.09 3.00 2.92 2.85 2.79

16 17 18 19 20

4.49 4.45 4.41 4.38 4.35

3.63 3.59 3.55 3.52 3.49

3.24 3.20 3.16 3.13 3.10

3.01 2.96 2.93 2.90 2.87

2.85 2.81 2.77 2.74 2.71

2.74 2.70 2.66 2.63 2.60

21 22 23 24 25

4.32 4.30 4.28 4.26 4.24

3.47 3.44 3.42 3.40 3.38

3.07 3.05 3.03 3.01 2.99

2.84 2.82 2.80 2.78 2.76

2.68 2.66 2.64 2.62 2.60

2.57 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49

26 27 28 29 30

4.22 4.21 4.20 4.18 4.17

3.37 3.35 3.34 3.33 3.32

2.89 2.96 2.95 2.93 2.92

2.74 2.73 2.71 2.70 2.69

2.59 2.57 2.56 2.54 2.53

2.47 2.46 2.44 2.43 2.42

N-k-l

continues

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 75

N W E : I,argcr tables showing additional stgrlificancc Ievcls may bc fo~rndin many coil-tprefiensivestatistics texts.

s o u ~ c ;Rorlald ~: A. Fisher and Frank Yares, Statistical Tables fir BioEogilraE, Agvicz--tlturaE,and Medical Research, SZXgh EEdiL-ion (Edinburg1.t: Ofiver and Boyd, 19631, pp 53, 5.5, 57,

O R. A. Fisl-ter and E rates. Reprinted by perlltission of Pearson Education, Limited.

variables would be misleading, for their contributir causal interpretation. However, one should not draw such a conclusion until the appropriate partials have been computed, because it is possible for the value of Pearson's r between two variables to be zero while the partial is significamly positive or negative. Although examples such as these-in whictl correlations turn out to be exactly zero-can occur with real data, usually they do not, How clr~seto zero must a correlation be? If the data are from a random sample, then the F-test may be used for Pearson" r a d the partial correlations. If the probability is greater than .OS, then the correlation can be assumed to be zero for the population, But one may be working with nonsample data, where any correlation, however small, is, in a statistical sense, significant, or with data from a such large sarnple that even rninute correlations indicating no practical relatirrnship are still significant at tile .05 level. In such instances, one may look at aIX o f the tests and see that because one of the test statistics is extremely weak, the corresponding model is, indeed, the '"best fitting." Box 10.4 illustrates the process of causal modeling with an example using data on nations. The dependent variable is military spending (measured as a percentage of:national budget). The causal priority of the other two variables is not obvious, as both wealth (measured as per capita. GNP) and democracy (measured on a tenpoint scale) would have a lengthy history, To keep the example simple, we will assurr.le that wealth causes democracy, Hence the causal priority is wealth, dexnocracy, military spending. As Box 10.4 shows, model 1, indepelldent causation, clearly does not apply, because wealth and denlocraq are strongly correlated. Model 2, spurious correlation, also does not apply$because the partial r between military spending and wealth, controiling fc~rdemocracy (rgnW,&)r is quite strong. But when we test model 3, Intervening Variable, we

find that the partiat correlation between military spending and = .05f. wealtl-r, controllix far dernocritcy, is very nearly zero (rmdSw Elence we conclude that model 2 is the best fit, The wealthier a nation, the more democratic it tends to be, and the more democratic, the higher tl-re military spending. In other words, tl-re apparent relationship of wealth to military spending is a result of the effect of wealth on the type of g u v e m e n t . Another example of causal trtodeling can be fotjnd in Exercise C at the end of tlze chapter, The relatively simple three-variahle example in Box 10.4 illustrates how controlling allows us to understand these basic patterns in statistical anatgsis, particularly to distinguish cases of intervening variables from spurious correlations. More elaborate models may he constructed for larger numbers of variables. Although that is best done by writing simultaneous equations for all of the possible patterns (BXalock 1964), tl-re relatively simple approach using partial correlations can easily be extended to more complex problems (Blalock 1962). Figure 10.2 shows a causal model that fchutman and 130mper (197.5)constructed tc-, analyze votillg belravior in the 1972 presidential election. As is ccjmmon in the presentation of such models, measures of the relative stretlge1-r (in this case, beta weights) are included for each of the causal arrows. This mc~delshows how the effects s f social hackground and family partisallship are mediated largely through an individual's party identification. Party identification then has both a direct effect cm the vote and an indirect effect through i t s influence on attitudes toward particnlar issues and evalut~tionof the candidates. Interestingly, almost identical causal patterns were found far elections in three different decades, but the relative strength of the different linkages showed that party idetitification declined somewhat as an influewe on votiw while the importance of issues increased. Thus, causal modcling can reveal important generalizations about complex phenomena.

Causul Interpretution Using Contingmcy ?bble~ Although the complete cartsal modeling procedure requires interval data and partial correlatioils, the same logic can be applied to nominal and ordinal category data, in which controlIing is dcrr-re usirlg contingency tables as explained in the first part of this chapter, To do this for three variables, explicit ass~tmptivnsmust be made about causal priorities. Then three sets of contingency tables m s t

l

BOX 10.4 An Example of Causal Modeling Correlation Matrix (X)earsank sr) W D M Wealth (W) 1.00 -85 ,S1 Democracy (D) .85 L.80 .62 Military spending (1M) -51 -62 1.00 W = l 86 Nations

Relevant Partiais: r,,,,, = -78 r mw>,c = -.Q5

Assumed causal priority: Wealth, democracy, military spending

I

Model 1 : Independent Causation Test: Does rdw= O! No, rd, = .g5 Conclusion: Model 1 does not apply-

1Vodel2: Spurious Correla tion Test: Does rmdSw = O! No, rmdew = -78. Conclusion: LWodel 2 does not apply.

W *D

J

iZ/1

f i s t : Does r

= 01 rtnd+,= -.OS, wllicb is very close to zero, Gonclusictn: LMc~del3 may apply.

1Vodei 4: Complete Causation W *D

'I/ M

Test: Are rdw9rn,d,r, and rmsd a11 not equal to =so? Since rrrrdew = .OS, Mc~del4 does not apply very well.

~vtzliszzled

Conclusion:

Model 3 is the best fitting causal model:

3"

&M

be constructed: (1)tables cross-tabulating each pair of variables without controls; ( 2 ) tables cross-tabulating the second independent ('"middle") variabie with the depelldeat variahle while controlling for the first independent variable; and (3) tables crosstabulating the first independent variable witl-r the dependent variable while controlling for the second independent (""middle"') variable, Appropriate statistical measures of association and (if randorn sarnple data are used) significance levels are then cornputed. When all of this has been done, it may be possible to distinguish the four possible causal models previously presenwd, The results of this procedure may be more ambiguous than those obtained In causal modelinfi for interval variables, The problem is that there may be substantial ilzteracticm, that is, the relationship may be of different strengrhs within different categories of a control variable, On the other hand, this can be ail advailtage of the contingency table method, since partial correlations do nut reveal whether interaction is present.. The contingency table approach also may be extetlded tc-,a larger number of variables, which would require controlling for two or more variables at once, As noted earlier, simultaneously controlling for several variables produces numerous tables, many with inadequate numbers of cases. Box 10.5 presents the contingency tables rlecessary to mdertake this version of causal analysis. The example deals with the question of racial differences in voting participation and the extent to which these differences can be attributed to education, We assume that the causal priority is race, education, turnout, That ttlmout could only be a consequence of the other two is O~VIQLIS, It also makes sense to assume that race more lilcely influences education (i.e., members of minority groups tend to have less education) for a variety of reasoils, whereas the nt>tioilthat educatioil could influence race and ethnicity does not make sense.

Mzaltivariate Statistics 0.2

F

f 85

An example t>f a causal model: 1972 presidential election

,285

FAiZilILY SOCIOECONOMIC PARTXSAN PREDIf POSITION

IDENTIFICATION

RESPONDEN SOCIOECONO PARTISAN PREDISPOSITXC3N -i

A/'

X3ARTISAN ISSUES INDEX

\-:*

",

/'

/

i

' I

.l38

Y

RESPONDENT" PARTY IDENTIFICATION .249 .3lZ

,/

/

/

/+-CANDIDATE EVALUATION

,/*S l 0

RESPONDENT'S VOTE

N = 827 RL= ,4713 (p < .OO f ) NOTE:

Figures by arrows are beta weights,

Addagtcd from hlark A. Scbutman and Gerald brnper, "hriabitity in Electoral Behavior: Longitudinal Perspectives from Causal &lodeling," Amerzcan jozar~talof Politic~alS~ie$?ceI9 ( f 975), 1-1 7.

SOURCE:

Box 10.5 first presents the relationsl-rips between each pair of variables. It tl-ren explores the relationship between tl-re dependent variable burnout) and each of the independent varirtbles (race and education), Recatlirlg the four causal models presented earfier, we can easily see that rnodel 1, independent causation, is not a possibility, because the two independent variables (race and education) are strongly related. The second set of tables jtrtrnout with education, controlling foe race) would test rnodel 2, spurious correlation, because it determines whether the relationship between the second and third variables disappears when corztroiling kjr the first. Modet

2, does not fit the data, as the turnoutleducation relationship re-

mains about the same strength and is significant for both racial categories. But when we look at the relationship between turnout and race, controlling for education, the relationship within each education category virtually disappears, in both strengeh and significance. When we compare individuals of a given level of education, there is virtually no difference in the turnout rates of whites and nonwhites. Since we l-rave assumed that race i s causally prior to education, model 3, intervening variable, fits these data very well, This analysis aids in our substarttive interpretation of: turnout, Race is not irrelevant to turxlout, because it is ultimately a cause, but it had i t s entire effect tl-rrougk education, This might suggest that if we are concerned about increasing tumout among racial minorities, we shsulct address the larger question of why there are racial differences in educational attainment,

Exercises Answers to the exercises follow. T t is recom~neridedthat you attempt to complete the exercises before looking at the answers.

Below are tables showing the relationship between party competition and spending Eor education in the fifty states with a control for the state" per capita income. Wl-rat conclusion would you draw about the hypotl-resis that higher Levels of party competition calrse states to spend more on education? C:QNTRCILLING FOR ZNGCjM1t-i (ALL CASES) COMPETITION SLrEmMC E-IlgI? Lozv H~gi? 72% 36% 1-ow

28 64 100% 100% N = 25 25 p

p

HIGH INCOME: COMPETITION SL3EmIIPJG Hzgh Low

85% 83% 15 17 100% lot>% N = 20 4

LOW INCOME COMPETITION SPEmING E-ItgI? Low

20% 80 100% N=5

21% 79 2110% 19

BOX 10.5 Using Contingency Tables for Causal Xnterprearion Assuxnccl causal priority: Race, education, turnout

A. Tables with N o Controls RACE

RACE

W R N O U T WC~ite Non-whzte \Toter "73% 50%

30

50 100% 100% M = 1,OIlO 4110 Garnlna = .40 Chi" 49.51 ( p c . W l ) Phi2 = .C14

Non-voter

College Voter 7 2 "0 N ~ P z -ter vo 29 100% IiJ = 700

TURNOUT

EuUc~TiQr\l White Non-whzte

60% 25'% 40 75 100% 100% = 1,000 400 = .63 140.00 (p < .001) .1C)

(JolEege High School

N Gamma Ghi"

Phi"

EDUCATION High School 29% Ciamrma = .72 71 C:l-iiL = 257.14 (p < ,001) 1C)O% Phi" . l 8 700

B, Turnout by Education, C:antrolling for Race WHITES EDUCATION High TURNOUT Collegre School Voter 72% 30% 70 Non-voter 213 100% 100% N = 600 400 Ciarnma = .71 ChtZ= 168.3.5 (p < .001) Phi2 = .17

NON-WHTES EDUCATION High TURNOUT g Schorjl WO ter 7Q1' 30% Non-voter 70 100% 100% is;i = 100 300 Ciarnma = .68 Cht" 50.00 ( p < .001 ) Phi2 = .12

6". Tumour: by Raec, Controllir~gfor Education

COLLEGE HIGH SCHOOL RACE RACE TUKNQm W/?l'te Non-white TURNBUT White Non-whit@ Vc~ter 72% 70% Voter 30% 30% Nc11.t-voter 28 SO P$ol.t-voter '7'0 70 100% 100% IOt7% 10OC% N=600 100 N = 400 300

The best-fitting model would look like tl~is:

Below are tables showing the relatioilship between a responderrt's approval rating of the president and his or her vote in the next election with a control far the respondent" party identification. What conclusion would you draw about the hypothesis that people who approve of the president's perhrmance in office are more likely to vote for the calldidate af the president" party? (As you migl-rc guess, the president in this example was a Democrat.) Data are from a survey using random sampling, (ALL isappruve VOTE Approve Disappfiwe 20% 90% 50% 88 I0 5() 100% 100% 100%

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 89

cot~tmussl!

N = 500 500 1,arnbda = .Q0 Ciarnma = +.88 Chi = 680.00 (p < .a01) Phi b -68

VOTE

L3emo.

N = 200 100 I,alnbda = .Q9 (iarnma = c. 80 Cht = 61.43 (p < .a01) Phi L .20

REPIJBHCANS INDEPENDENTS APPROVAL APPROVAL Approve t)&apprave Approve Disapprove 60% 10% VOTE 80% 15%

1,ambcfa = .25 Gamma = +.86 Czki h 83.22 (p .:.ifQlf 1% G .28

1,ambda = .63 Gamma = +.86 Czl-rih 169.42 (p c: .Q01f 1% G .42

Below is a matrix of Pearson's r data on a r a r z d o ~sample ~ of fifty nations that were a11 a t some time in the past under the csntrsl of a colonial power, The variables are the number of years since independe~lce,ewnomic developmellt (measured as per capita GDP), and political instability Measured as the relative nur~berof "irregtilar executive transfers" f i a t have occurred in the nation, Using the correlations in the matrix; 1. Calct~iatethe partial correlation between instability and development, controlling for years since independence (r,,l,,). Use the F-test to determine significance, 2. Calculate the partial correlation between instability and years since independence, cantrolling fur development (rtYd).Use the F-test to determine significance.

3. Calculate the multiple correlation with instability as the dependent variable wit11 development and years since indepelldence as the independent variables. Use the F-test to determine significance, 4. Assuming tl-re causal priority years since independence, development, instability3 determine the hest-fitting causal model for these variables, YEARS V

Ueam (yl)

1.00

DEVELOPMENT I>

INSTABILITY I

,34

-.52

Suggested Answers to Exercises

When we loc>k at all the states, there appears to be a fairly strong positive relationship between party c s ~ ~ p e t i t i oand n spending on educacian, that is, states with high competition are more likely to be states with high vending than states with low competition. However, when we control for states>er c q i t a income, the relationsl-rip almost completely disappears. This indicates that the reiationship between cc~mpetitionand spending was due to the effect of income and that these two variables do x~otaffect each other.

When we look at all respondents, we see that there is a strong and significant relationship between approval and the vote, that is, those who approwd of presidential performance voted Democratic, and those who disapproved voted Republican, When we control for the respondent" party identification, the relationship remains strong and significant within each group of party identifiers. Therefore, we c m col~clndethat presidetitial approval does affect voting in the next election, Note that (as you can tell horn the N's in the control tables) party is related tc, both variaMes, Democratic identifiers are more likely to approve of presider~tiaiperformance

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 91

and are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, But the effect of approval is clear even within the party identification cat-

F 3. 3.21, so p c .OS. This partial is significant.

F ;> 3-21 , so p

.r

.OS, This partial is significant.

Mode1 1

Made1 2

Made! 3

Model 4

The test for m d e l 2 , independent causation, is whether the simple Pearson correlation between years since ixldepe~iderlceand development is zero. As the inatrix shows, rd, = -34 (and an F-test shows that this is significant at the .Q5level), Therefore, model 1 does not apply. The test for model 2, spurious correlation, is wketl-rer the partial correlation between instability and development, controlling for years since independence, is zero. As. the calculations in question 1 above show, r,&, = -.71 and it is significant. Therefore, model 2 does not apply,

Mzaltivariate Statistics

f 93

The test for model 3, intervening variable, is whether the partial correlation between instability and years since independence, controlling for development, is zero. As the calculations in question 2 above show, r,,:, = -.42 and it is significant. Therefore, model 3 does not apply. Since the data fail to meet any of the tests for the first three mtrdels, we conclude that model il, complete ca~zsation,is the most applicable. Bottl years since independence and econaxnic develr~pment (which are themselves interrelated) have a direct effect on political instability,

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References

Alxner, Ennis C. 2000, Statistical Tricks and Traps, Los Angeles: Pyrczak Pu blishing. Ansolahehere, Stephen, et al, 1994. "hoes Attack Advertising Demobilize the EIectorate?" American Political Science Review 88: 829-838. Bereison, Bernard. 19";;". Content Analysis in Cr>mmuilicatioil Research, Mew York: Hafner. Bfaiock, Huberr: M. 1962, ""Four-Variable Causal Models and Partial Correlations," American Journal of' Sociology 68: 182-194, 510-512, -1964. Causal Inferences in Nonexperixnentd Research. Chapel I-fill:University of North Carolina Press. Cutright, Phillips, 1963. ""Measuring the Impact of Local Party Activity a n the General Election Vote," Pubtic Opinion QtiarterIy 2";7 372-3861, Edwards, Ceorge C. 2983. The Public Presidency New York: Sr. Martin's. Graber, Doris A. 1988. Processing the News, 2d ed, New Yark: 1,oxigman. Huff, Darrell. 1954. How to Lie with Statistics. New York: W W. Norton, Katz, Daniel, and Sarr.luel J, Eldersveld, ()The Impact of Party Activity a n the Electorate," h b f l c Opinion Quarterly 25: 1-24. Kramer, Geratd H. 1970, "The Impact u l Party Activity on the Electorate," PPulzlic Opirtio~iQuarterly 34: 560-572. Monroe, Alan D. 1977. 'TJrbt~nismand Voter Turnout: A Mote on Some Unexpected Findings," Americican Journal of Political Scierice 21: 71-81. -- . 1998, ""Public Opinion and Pu blic Policy, 1 980-1 9939'a Pul-tlic Opinir~nQuarterly, 62: 6-28. S

Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Prestde~ztj,and PubEic Opinio~z.New York: WiXey. North, Robert C,, et al., 1963. Content Analysis: A Elandlsr>ok with Applications for the Study of international Crisis. Evanston, IL: Northwestern University 13ress. Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Shapiro. 1983. "Effects of Public Opinion on Policy," American Political Science Review 77: 1071-1089. Patterson, Thomas E. 1980. The mass IVedia Election, New York: Praeger. Pomper, Gerald M,, with Susan S. Lederman. 1980. Electiolls in America, 2d ed. Mew York: Longman, Robinson, Michael J., and ~MargaretA. Sheehan. 1983. Over the Wire and trrr TV. New York: RrrsselI Sage, Schufman, Mark A., a d Gerald M. Pomper, 1975, "kriability in Electoral Behavior: Longitudinal Perspectives from Causal Modelirtg," Arnerican Journal of Political Science 2 l : 1 - 1 8. Scott, Gregory M., and Stephen M. Garrison. 1998. The Student Politicat Science Writer" ~Vanual,2d ed, Upper Saddte River, NJ: Prentice Hall, nlfte, Edward R. 1983. The Visual Display of Q~~ancicative Xnlormation. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press. Wallgren, Anders, et al. 1996. Graphing Statistics and Data: Cresting Better Charts. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone. 1980. Who Wjtes? New haver^: Yale University Press.

Index Abramson, Paul R., 1 1 1 Aldrich, John H., 1 1 1 Almer, Ennis C. 1 10 Analytical sentences, 4 Ansolabehere, Stephen, 44 Balachandran, IV., 56 Balachax~dran,S,, 56 Bar chart, 106-108 Bar one, LVichael, 65 Bereison, Bernard, 58 Beta weight, 177-1 78 Bibby3John E, 5.5 Btaiock Hubert M,, 182 Burnhaxn, Walrer D,, 56 Captive population, 72 Causaiiry, 31-32. 178 Causal modeling, 178-190 Case study, 43 Chi-square, 101,124-3 32 Cluster sample, 70 Congressional data sources, 54-56 Content Analysis, 5 8-64 Contingency tables, 92-93, 159-166,182-186 Controll variable, 21-22, 4 0 4 3 , 159-1166,167-173 Cook, Rl-rodes M,, 107, 108 Coplin, William D,, 54 Cramer" V, 101, 132-134

Cutright, Philiips, 46 Data, 47 Demographic data sources, 52-54 Dichotomy, 87 Difference of means test, 101, 151 Ecological fallacy322, 24, 49 Edwards, George C., 57 Eldersveld, Samuel J., 46 Electicjn return sources, 56-57 Empirical sentences, 2, 3-8 Eta, 101, 151 Exit poll, 71 Explanation, 3 Experimental design, 32-37 Factorial design, 37 Fisher, Rona'id A., 149, 175 F-test, 101, 146-149, 169-17.5, 176-3 77 Gamma, 122-124 Garrison, Cregory M., 5 1 Carwood, Alfred N., 56 Generaliizations, 2, 3 Goldstein, Joshua, 55 Craber, Doris A., 64 Graphics, principles for, 1i 3 3.--1.55

Index

Graphics, problems with, 109-1 l 2 Elastings, Elizabeth Hann, 5 7 Hastings, Phillip K., 57 Hovey, Harold A. S6 Elovery, Kendra A., 56 Huff, Darrell, 109 Hypothesis, 12, 17-20 Interaction, 184 Inrternational data sources, 52-33 Internet sources, 48, S 1, 52, 53, 56, 58 Intersubjective testhilit5 2 Interval variable, 85 Intervening variable, 1 80 Interviewing, 71-72 Janda, Kenneth, 54 Jodice, David A,, 54 Katz, Daniel, 46 Kendall's Tau B, 101, 124 Kendall's Tau C, 181 Kramer, Cerald H., 46 Lambda, 101, 117-120, 121-122 Level of measurement, 83-89 Line graph, 108-189 Local data sources, 56 McGilfivray, AIice V, 187, 108 ~Vackie,Tbomas X, 54 Mackinson, Larry, 55 Mait survey, 72 ~Vean,90 Median, 90.-9 2

IVode, 91 Mt~nroe,AIan D., 42, 57 Morgan, Katkleen O,, 53,56 IVueller, John E,, 57' Multiple R, 173-1 77 Multivariate statistics, 98-1 Q 1 Natural experiment, See Qt~asi-experiinentatdesign Niemi, Ricbard G., 54 Nominai variabie, 83-.-84 Noniinear relationship, 147-149,151 Normative sentence, 2, 3-8 North, Robert C,, S9 O' Lear)i Michael K., 54 Operational definition, 18-1 9, 23-28 Ordinal variable, 84-85 Ornstein, Norman J,, S5 Page, Benjamin I,, 5 7 Partial correlation, 1 67-1 n3, 179-1 82 Patterson, Thornas E., 59, 64 Pearsun's r, 101, 1 44-147 Personal interview, 71 Phi, 101, 130-232 Pie chart, 106 Pomper, Gerald IV., 59, 60"-61 , 64, 1 82 Prediction, 3 Quasi-experime~ita!design, 37-40 Ragsdaie, Lyn, 56, 64 Random digit Qialing, 70 Random sample, 68-70 Range, 9 1-92

Recording unit, 60-6 1 Regression, 141-145 Research desigil, 12, 3 1-43 Research problem. See Research question Research question, 8-1 l Rhode, %>avidW., 111 Rubinson, ~VichaelJ,, 59 Rose, Richard, S4 Rosenstone, Sreven J., 22 Sampling, 62, 67-71 Scarnmon, Richard M,, 107, 108 Schulmail, IVark A., I82 Scott, Stepher1 M., S1 Seff-administered survey, 71-72 Scattergram, 93-95 Science, 2, 10-1 1 Shapiro, Rohert, 5 7 Sheefran, Margaret A., 59 Significance, 99- 100 Significance test. See Cbisquare; F-test; T-rest; Difference of Means test Silvard, Ruth, 54, 65 S o l o ~ ~fo~zr-group o~l design, 37 Spurious correlation, 180 Standard deviation, 92

Standardization, 26, 49, 112-113 ft-anley, Harold W*, S4 Statistic, 90 State data sources, 56 f tirvey data sources, 57-58 Survey items, 73-78 Survey research, 67-78 Tau B, 101 Taylor, Charles L., S4 Theoretical role of variables, 20-22 Theor)i 17-19 T-test, 101, 151 Tufte, Edward R,, 178 Ujifusa, Grant, Q5 Univariate statistics, 90-92 United States data sources, 53-54 Unit of analysis, 22-25, 48-49

Wallgren, Anders, f 06 Wolfirtger, Raymond E., 22 Woad, Floris W,, 5 7 b t e s , Frank, 149, 175 Yule" Q, 120-122