Decision-making in Complex Environments

DECISION MAKING IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS

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Decision Making in Complex Environments

Edited by MALCOLM COOK University of Abertay Dundee, UK JAN NOYES University of Bristol, UK YVONNE MASAKOWSKI Naval Undersea Warfare Center Division, Rhode Island, USA

© Malcolm Cook, Jan Noyes and Yvonne Masakowski 2007 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Malcolm Cook, Jan Noyes and Yvonne Masakowski have asserted their moral right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the editors of this work. Published by Ashgate Publishing Limited Gower House Croft Road Aldershot Hampshire GU11 3HR England

Ashgate Publishing Company Suite 420 101 Cherry Street Burlington, VT 05401-4405 USA

Ashgate website: http://www.ashgate.com British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Decision making in complex environments 1. Decision making I. Cook, Malcolm II. Noyes, Janet M. III. Masakowski, Yvonne 658.4'03 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Decision making in complex environments / Edited by Malcolm Cook, Jan Noyes and Yvonne Masakowski. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN-13: 978-0-7546-4950-2 1. Decision making. 2. Multiple criteria decision making. 3. Decision making--Data processing. 4. Decision support systems. I. Cook, Malcolm (Malcolm James), 1960- II. Noyes, Janet M. III. Masakowski, Yvonne. T57.95.D43 2006 153.8'3--dc22 2006021150 ISBN 978-0-7546-4950-2

Printed and bound in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall.

Contents List of Figures List of Tables List of Contributors Foreword

ix xiii xv xxxi

Part 1: Characteristics of Complex Decision Making 1

Decisions about “What” and Decisions about “How” Erik Hollnagel

3

2

Corruption and Recovery of Sensemaking During Navigation Gary Klein

13

3

Time and Design in Decision Making Environments Göran Pettersson

33

4

Risk and Decision Making Damien J. Williams

43

5

Extreme Risk-taking and Decision Making Bruno Sicard, Elisabeth Jouve and Olivier Blin

55

Part 2: Areas of Application 6

Human Requirements in Automated Weapons Systems Jennifer McGovern Narkevicius and Peggy Heffner

65

7

Automation and Decision Making Jan Noyes

73

8

The Flightdeck of the Future: Field Studies in Datalink and Freeflight Gemma Cox, Sarah Sharples, Alex Stedmon, John Wilson and Tracey Milne

83

9

The Flightdeck of the Future: Perceived Urgency of Speech and Text Alex Stedmon, Sarah Sharples, Edward Nicholson, Gemma Cox and John Wilson

93

vi

10

Decision Making in Complex Environments

Operator Interface Research Testbed for Supervisory Control of Multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Gloria Calhoun, Mark Draper and Heath Ruff

105

11

Virtual Environments for Military Decision Making John Kostaras and Georgios Detsis

117

12

ROLF 2010: A Swedish Command Post of the Future Berndt Brehmer

129

Part 3: Complex Decision Making in Civil Applications 13

14

15

Human Information Processing Aspects of Effective Emergency Incident Management Decision Making Jim McLennan, Mary Omodei, Alina Holgate and Alexander Wearing Decision Making by Operational Incident Commanders in a Nuclear Emergency Response Organisation: Decision Strategy Selection Margaret Crichton, Peter McGeorge and Rhona Flin Presentation of Verbal Material: The Impact of Modality on Situation Awareness and Performance on the Flightdeck Alastair Nicholls, Tracey Milne, Eric Farmer and Anne Melia

16

Air Traffic Controller Strategies in Holding Scenarios Lynn Springall

17

How Roles Change when Disaster Strikes: Lessons Learnt from the Manufacturing Domain Carys Siemieniuch and Murray Sinclair

143

153

163

171

179

Part 4: Complex Decision Making in Military Applications 18

A History Lesson on the Use of Technology to Support Military Decision Making and Command and Control Robert Bolia, Michael Vidulich, Todd Nelson and Malcolm Cook

191

19

The Intuitive vs. Analytic Approach to Real World Problem Solving: Misperception of Dynamics in Military Operations 201 Bjørn Tallak Bakken, Stig Johannessen, Dag Søberg and Morten Ruud

20

Critical Thinking in Tactical Decision Games Training Karel van den Bosch and Anne Helsdingen

213

Contents

vii

Part 5: Teams and Complex Decision Making 21

Why Training Team Decision Making is Not as Easy as You Think: Guiding Principles and Needs Eduardo Salas, Joseph Guthrie and Shawn Burke

225

22

The Migration of Authority in Tactical Decision Making Sidney Dekker and Nalini Suparamaniam

233

23

The Analysis of Team Decision Making Architectures Richard Breton and Robert Rousseau

243

24

Surgical Team Self-Review: Enhancing Organisational Learning in the Royal Cornwall Hospital Trust 259 Simon Henderson, Matt Mills, Adrian Hobbs, Alan Bleakley, James Boyden and Linda Walsh

Part 6: Assessment and Measurement 25

A Method for Need Analysis before Decision Making Based on Ecological Psychology Thierry Morineau

271

26

Operational Net Assessment: A Canadian Human Factors Analysis Philip Farrell

279

27

Psycho-physiological Measures of Situation Awareness Han Tin French, Elizabeth Clarke, Diane Pomeroy, Melanie Seymour and C. Richard Clark

291

28

Signal Detection Theory and the Assessment of Situation Awareness Barry McGuinness

299

29

Psycho-physiological Measurements of Mental Activity, Stress Reactions and Situation Awareness in the Maritime Full Mission Simulator Thomas Koester

30

31

Measures of Attention and Cognitive Effort in Tactical Decision Making Sandra Marshall Crew Mental Workload for the Vetronics Technology Testbed Vehicle Christopher Smyth

311

321

333

viii

Decision Making in Complex Environments

32

Full Spectrum Analysis: Practical Operational Research in the Face of the Human Variable Graham Mathieson

33

Effective Taxonomies in Organisational Safety Brendan Wallace and Alastair Ross

34

Using Signal Detection Theory to Measure Situation Awareness: The Technique, the Tool (QUASATM), the Test, the Way Forward Graham Edgar and Helen Edgar

349

361

373

Part 7: A Final Comment 35

Index

Intelligence, Uncertainty, Interpretations and Prediction Failure Malcolm Cook, Corinne Adams and Carol Angus

389

411

List of Figures 1.1

The contextual control model applied to decision making

2.1 2.2

Data/frame model of sensemaking Map of Indianapolis

15 23

3.1 3.2 3.3

What is time? The optimal shape of the TEARS pentagon? Temporal Plan and Action Model (TPAM)

35 35 38

5.1

5.3

BASE jump Sensation Seeking Scale (SSS) scores compared to general population BASE pre and post jump and non BASE population EVAR scores comparison between BASE jumpers pre and post jump scores b p