Being wrong: adventures in the margin of error

BEING WRONG

BEING WR0�6 ADVENTURES IN �HE MARGIN OF ERROR

KATHRYN SCHULZ

An Imprint of HarperCollinsPub/ishers

BEING WRONG.

Copyright© 2010 by Kathryn Schulz. All rights reserved. Printed

in the United States of America. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, address HarperCollins Publishers, 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022. HarperCollins books may be purchased for educational, business, or sales promo­ tional use. For information, please write: Special Markets Department, Harper­ Collins Publishers, 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022. FIRST EDITION

Desig;ned by Suet Yee Chong Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for. ISBN 978-0-06-117604-3 10

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For my family, given and chosen And for Michael and Amanda, at whose expense I wrote about what I knew

CONTENTS

PART I 1

THE IDEA OF ERROR

3

Wrongology

25

Two Models of Wrongness

2

THE ORIGINS OF ERROR

PART II 3

Our Senses

47

Our Minds, Part One: Knowing, Not Knowing, and Making It Up 4

s 6

Our Minds, Part Two: Belief

87

Our Minds, Part Three: Evidence Our Society

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133

The Allure o f Certainty

1 59

THE EXPERIENCE OF ERROR

PART Ill

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Being Wrong

183

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How Wrong?

201

Denial and Acceptance 12 13

Heartbreak

Transformation

220

247 273

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CONTENTS

PART IV 14 15

EMBRACING ERROR

299

The Paradox of Error

The Optimistic Meta-Induction from the History of Everything 320

Acknowledgments Notes

3 45

Index

393

341

Perhaps the history of the errors of mankind, all things considered, is more valuable and interesting than that of their discoveries. Truth is uniform and narrow; it constantly exists, and does not seem to require so much an active energy, as a passive aptitude of soul in order to encounter it. But error is endlessly diversified; it has no reality, but is the pure and simple creation of the mind that invents it. In this field, the soul has room enough to expand herself, to display all her boundless faculties, and all her beautiful and interesting ex­ travagancies and absurdities. -Benjamin Franklin, Report of Dr. Benjamin Franklin, and Other Commissioners, Charged by the King ofFrance, with the Examination of the Animal Magnetism, as Now Practiced in Paris (1784)

MAN:

You said pound cake.

WoMAN: I didn't say pound cake, I said crumb cake. MAN:

You said pound cake.

WoMAN: Don't tell me what I said. MAN:

You said pound cake.

WoMAN: I said crumb cake. MAN:

I actually saw the crumb cake but I didn't get it because you said pound cake.

WoMAN: I said crumb cake. MAN:

Well, I heard pound cake.

WoMAN: Then you obviously weren't listening. Crumb cake doesn't even sound like pound cake. MAN:

Well, maybe you accidentally said pound cake.

WoMAN: I said crumb cake. -overheard in Grand Central Station, November 13, 2008

PART

I

THE IDEA OF ERROR

1.

W ro n g olo g y

It infuriates me to be wrong when I know I'm right. -MO L I E R E

Why is it so fun to be right? As pleasures go, it is, after all, a second­ order one at best. Unlike many of life's other delights-chocolate, surfing, kissing-it does not enjoy any mainline access to our biochemistry: to our appetites, our adrenal glands, our limbic systems, our swoony hearts. And yet, the thrill of being right is undeniable, universal, and (perhaps most oddly) almost entirely undiscriminating. We can't enjoy kissing just anyone, but we can relish being right about almost anything. The stakes don't seem to matter much; it's more important to bet on the right foreign policy than the right racehorse, but we are perfectly capable of gloating over either one. Nor does subject matter; we can be equally pleased about correctly identifing an orange-crowned warbler or the sexual orientation of our coworker. Stranger still, we can enjoy being right even about dis-

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BEING WRONG

agreeable things: the downturn i n the stock market, say, or the demise of a friend's relationship, or the fact that, at our spouse's insistence, we just spent fifteen minutes schlepping our suitcase in exactly the opposite direc­ tion from our hotel. Like most pleasurable experiences, rightness is not ours to enjoy all the time. Sometimes we are the one who loses the bet (or the hotel). And some­ times, too, we are plagued by doubt about the correct answer or course of action-an anxiety that, itself, reflects the urgency of our desire to be right. Still, on the whole, our indiscriminate enjoyment of being right is matched by an almost equally indiscriminate feeling that we are right. Occasionally, this feeling spills into the foreground, as when we argue or evangelize, make predictions or place bets. Most often, though, it is just psychological backdrop. A whole lot of us go through life assuming that we are basically right, basically all the time, about basically everything: about our political and intellectual convictions, our religious and moral beliefs, our assessment of other people, our memories, our grasp of facts. As absurd as it sounds when we stop to think about it, our steady state seems to be one of uncon­ sciously assuming that we are very close to omniscient. To be fair, this serene faith in our own rightness is often warranted. Most of us navigate day-to-day life fairly well, after all, which suggests that we are routinely right about a great many things. And sometimes we are not just routinely right but spectacularly right: right about the existence of atoms (postulated by ancient thinkers thousands of years before the emer­ gence of modern chemistry); right about the healing properties of aspirin (recognized since at least 3 000 BC); right to track down that woman who smiled at you in the cafe (now your wife of twenty years). Taken together, these moments of rightness represent both the high-water marks of human endeavor and the source of countless small joys. They affirm our sense of being smart, competent, trustworthy, and in tune with our environment. More important, they keep us alive. Individually and collectively, our very existence depends on our ability to reach accurate conclusions about the world around us. In short, the experience of being right is imperative for our survival, gratifying for our ego, and, overall, one of life's cheapest and keenest satisfactions.

W R O N G O L O GY

5

This book is about the opposite of all that. It is about being wrong: about how we as a culture think about error, and how we as individuals cope when our convictions collapse out from under us. If we relish being right and regard it as our natural state, you can imagine how we feel about being wrong. For one thing, we tend to view it as rare and bizarre-an inexpli­ cable aberration in the normal order of things. For another, it leaves us feel­ ing idiotic and ashamed. Like the term paper returned to us covered in red ink, being wrong makes us cringe and slouch down in our seat; it makes our heart sink and our dander rise. At best we regard it as a nuisance, at worst a nightmare, but in either case-and quite unlike the gleeful little rush of being right-we experience our errors as deflating and embarrassing. And that's just for starters. In our collective imagination, error is associ­ ated not just with shame and stupidity but also with ignorance, indolence, psychopathology, and moral degeneracy. This set of associations was nicely summed up by the Italian cognitive scientist Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini, who noted that we err because of (among other things) "inattention, distrac­ tion, lack of interest, poor preparation, genuine stupidity, timidity, brag­ gadocio, emotional imbalance, . . . ideological, racial, social or chauvinistic prejudices, as well as aggressive or prevaricatory instincts." In this rather despairing view-and it is the common one-our errors are evidence of our gravest social, intellectual, and moral failings. Of all the things we are wrong about, this idea of error might well top the list. It is our meta-mistake: we are wrong about what it means to be wrong. Far from being a sign of intellectual inferiority, the capacity to err is crucial to human cognition. Far from being a moral flaw, it is inextricable from some of our most humane and honorable qualities: empathy, opti­ mism, imagination, conviction, and courage. And far from being a mark of indifference or intolerance, wrongness is a vital part of how we learn and change. Thanks to error, we can revise our understanding of ourselves and amend our ideas about the world. Given this centrality to our intellectual and emotional development, error shouldn't be an embarrassment, and cannot be an aberration. On the contrary. As Benjamin Franklin observed in the quote that heads this book, wrongness is a window into normal human nature-into our imaginative

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BEING WRONG

minds, our boundless faculties, our extravagant souls. This book i s staked on the soundness of that observation: that however disorienting, difficult, or humbling our mistakes might be, it is ultimately wrongness, not right­ ness, that can teach us who we are.

This idea is not new. Paradoxically, we live in a culture that simultaneously despises error and insists that it is central to our lives. We acknowledge that centrality in the very way we talk about ourselves-which is why, when we make mistakes, we shrug and say that we are human. As bats are batty and slugs are sluggish, our own species is synonymous with screwing up. This built-in propensity to err is also recognized within virtually every re­ ligious, philosophical, and scientific account of personhood. Nor are errors, in these accounts, just surface features or passing oddities, like hiccups or fingernails or deja vu. Twelve hundred years before Rene Descartes penned his famous "I think, therefore I am," the philosopher and theologian (and eventual saint) Augustine wrote "Jailor ergo sum ": I err, therefore I am. In this formulation, the capacity to get things wrong is not only part of being alive, but in some sense proof of it. For Augustine as for Franklin, being wrong is not just what we do. In some deep sense, it is who we are. And yet, if fallibility is built into our very name and nature, it is in much the same way the puppet is built into the jack-in-the-box: in theory wholly predictable, in practice always a jarring surprise. In this respect, fallibil­ ity is something like mortality, another trait that is implicit in the word "human." As with dying, we recognize erring as something that happens to everyone, without feeling that it is either plausible or desirable that it will happen to us. Accordingly, when mistakes happen anyway, we typi­ cally respond as if they hadn't, or as if they shouldn't have: we deny them, wax defensive about them, ignore them, downplay them, or blame them on somebody else. Our reluctance to admit that we are wrong is not just an individual failing. With the exception of those error-prevention initiatives employed in high-risk fields like aviation and medicine, our culture has developed remarkably few tools for addressing our propensity to err. If you commit

W R O N G O LO GY

7

a moral transgression, you can turn to at least a handful of established options to help you cope with it. Virtually every religious tradition in­ cludes a ritual for penitence and purification, along the lines of confession in Catholicism and Yom Kippur in Judaism. Twelve-step programs advise their participants to admit "to God, to ourselves, and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs." Even the criminal justice system, although far from reform-minded these days, has one foot rooted in a tradi­ tion of repentance and transformation. By contrast, if you commit an er­ ror-whether a minor one, such as realizing halfway through an argument that you are mistaken, or a major one, such as realizing halfway through a lifetime that you were wrong about your faith, your politics, yourself, your loved one, or your life's work-you will not find any obvious, ready-to-hand resources to help you deal with it. How could you? As a culture, we haven't even mastered the basic skill of saying "I was wrong." This is a startling deficiency, given the simplic­ ity of the phrase, the ubiquity of error, and the tremendous public service that acknowledging it can provide. Instead, what we have mastered are two alternatives to admitting our mistakes that serve to highlight exactly how bad we are at doing so. The first involves a small but strategic addendum: "I was wrong, but . . "-a blank we then fill in with wonderfully imagina­ .

tive explanations for why we weren't so wrong after all. (More on this in Part Three.) The second (infamously deployed by, among others, Richard Nixon regarding Watergate and Ronald Reagan regarding the Iran-Contra affair) is even more telling: we say, "mistakes were made." As that evergreen locution so concisely demonstrates, all we really know how to do with our errors is not acknowledge them as our own. '

*

Western culture has another mechanism for admitting mistakes, but its extreme ob­

scurity only underscores the point that such devices are woefully rare. In poetry, there is an entire form, the palinode, dedicated to retracting the sentiments of an earlier poem. (In Greek, palin means "again," and ode means "song," making a palinode lin­ guistically identical to a recantation: to "recant" means to sing again. We invoke this same idea when we say that someone who has shifted positions on an issue is "singing a different tune.") The most famous palinode-which isn't saying much-was written by the seventh-century poet Stesichorus, and serves to retract his earlier claim that Helen

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BEING WRONG

By contrast, we positively excel at acknowledging other people's errors. In fact, if it is sweet to be right, then-let's not deny it-it is downright savory to point out that someone else is wrong. As any food scientist can tell you, this combination of savory and sweet is the most addictive of fla­ vors: we can never really get enough of reveling in other people's mistakes. Witness, for instance, the difficulty with which even the well-mannered among us stifle the urge to say "I told you so." The brilliance of this phrase (or its odiousness, depending on whether you get to say it or must endure hearing it) derives from its admirably compact way of making the point that not only was I right, I was also right about being right. In the instant of uttering it, I become right squared, maybe even right factorial, logarith­ mically right-at any rate, really, extremely right, and really, extremely delighted about it. It is possible to refrain from this sort of gloating (and consistently choosing to do so might be the final milestone of maturity), but the feeling itself, that triumphant ha!, can seldom be fully banished. Of course, parading our own brilliance and exulting in other people's errors is not very nice. For that matter, even wanting to parade our own brilliance and exult in other people's errors is not very nice, although it is certainly very human. This is where our relationship to wrongness begins to show its stakes. Of all the strife in the world-strife of every imaginable variety, from conflict over crumb cake to conflict in the Middle East-a staggering amount of it arises from the clash of mutually incompatible, entirely unshakable feelings of rightness. Granted, we find plenty of other reasons to fight with one another as well, ranging from serious and painful breaches in trust to resource scarcity to the fact that we haven't had our coffee yet. Still, an impressive number of disputes amount to a tug-of-war over who possesses the truth: w� fight over the right to be right. Likewise, it is surprisingly difficult to get angry unless you are either convinced that you are correct, or humiliated and defensive about being wrong.

ofTroy was solely responsible for the carnage of the Trojan War. My personal favorite example, however, comes from Ogden Nash. Having famously observed that "Candy I Is dandy I But liquor I Is quicker," and apparently living to regret it, Nash followed up with this: "Nothing makes me sicker I Than liquor I And candy I Is too expandy."

W R O N G O LOGY

9

Our default attitude toward wrongness, then-our distaste for error and our appetite for being right-tends to be rough on relationships. This applies equally to relationships among nations, communities, colleagues, friends, and (as will not be lost on most readers) relatives. Indeed, an old adage of therapists is that you can either be right or be in a relationship: you can re­ main attached to Team You winning every confrontation, or you can remain attached to your friends and family, but good luck trying to do both. If insisting on our rightness tends to compromise our relationships, it also reflects poorly on our grasp of probability. I've already suggested that error isn't rare, yet it often seems remarkably scarce in our own lives­ enough so that we should take a moment to establish exactly how un-rare it really is. By way of example, consider the domain of science. The his­ tory of that field is littered with discarded theories, some of which are among humanity's most dramatic mistakes: the flat earth, the geocentric universe, the existence of ether, the cosmological constant, cold fusion. Science proceeds by perceiving and correcting these errors, but over time, the corrections themselves often prove wrong as well. As a consequence, some philosophers of science have reached a conclusion that is known, in clumsy but funny fashion, as the Pessimistic Meta-Induction from the History of Science. The gist is this: because even the most seemingly bul­ letproof scientific theories of times past eventually proved wrong, we must assume that today's theories will someday prove wrong as well. And what goes for science goes in general-for politics, economics, technology, law, religion, medicine, child-rearing, education. No matter the domain of life, one generation's verities so often become the next generation's falsehoods that we might as well have a Pessimistic Meta-Induction from the History of Everything. What is true of our collective human pursuits is also true of our indi­ vidual lives. All of us outgrow some of our beliefs. All of us hatch theories in one moment only to find that we must abandon them in the next. Our tricky senses, our limited intellects, our fickle memories, the veil of emo­ tions, the tug of allegiances, the complexity of the world around us: all of this conspires to ensure that we get things wrong again and again. You might never have given a thought to what I'm calling wrongology; you

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BEING WRONG

might b e the farthest thing i n the world from a wrongologist; but, like it or not, you are already a wrongitioner. We all are.

A book about being wrong can't get very far without first making its way across a definitional quagmire: Wrong? About what? Says who? We can be wrong about the integrity of our money manager, the identity of the murder suspect, or the name of the shortstop for the '62 Mets; about the structure of a hydrogen molecule or the date of the Second Coming; about the location of our car keys or the location of weapons of mass destruction. And that's just the straightforward stuff. There are also all those things about which we can never be proved wrong, but about which we tend to believe that people who disagree with us are wrong: the author of the Bible, the ethics of abortion, the merits of anchovies, whether it was you or your girlfriend who left the laptop in front of the window before the storm. As arbitrary as this list is, it raises some important questions about any project that proposes to treat error as a coherent category of human experi­ ence. The first question concerns the stakes of our mistakes. The difference between being wrong about your car keys and being wrong about weapons of mass destruction is the difference between "oops" and a global military crisis-consequences so dramatically dissimilar that we might reasonably wonder if the errors that led to them can have anything in common. The second question is whether we can be wrong, in any meaningful sense, about personal beliefs. It's a long way from the Mets to the moral status of abortion, and some readers will suspect that the conceptual distance between being wrong about facts and being "wrong" about convictions is unbridgeable. Other readers, meanwhile, will raise a different objection: that we can never be completely sure of the truth, and therefore can't le­ gitimately describe anything as "right" or "wrong." In short, trying to forge a unified theory out of our ideas about error is akin to herding cats. Nor is the opposite approach, divvying up wrongness into categories, much easier. Still both tactics have been attempted. The former is a pet project of Western philosophy, which has been attempt­ ing to define the essential nature of error from the get-go. For at least

W R O N G O LOGY

11

the first two thousand years of its existence, philosophy understood itself as the pursuit of knowledge and truth-a job description that obliged its practitioners to be almost equally obsessed with error and falsity. (You can't define error, Socrates observes in Plato's Theaetetus, without also defining knowledge; your theory of one hinges entirely on your theory of the other.) As philosophy diversified and formalized its areas of inquiry­ into ethics, metaphysics, logic, and so forth-the branch concerned with the study of knowledge became known as epistemology. Epistemologists disagree among themselves about many aspects of error, but from Plato onward they have shared a rough consensus on how to define it: to be wrong is to believe something is true when it is false-or, conversely, to believe it is false when it is true. This admirably straightforward defini­ tion will be useful to us, partly because it will help us eavesdrop on philo­ sophical conversations about error, and partly because it captures what we typically mean by wrongness in everyday life. Still, as we'll soon see, this definition is bedeviled by a problem so significant that I will choose not to rely on it. If philosophy has traditionally sought to unify and define wrongness, a far newer field-the multidisciplinary effort known sometimes as human factors research and sometimes as decision studies-has sought to subdivide and classify it. "Decision studies" is something of a euphemism; the field focuses primarily on bad decisions, without which it wouldn't need to exist. Likewise, the "human factors" in question-stress, distraction, disorgani­ zation, inadequate training, lack of information, and so forth-are those that contribute to inefficiencies, hazards, and mistakes. For these reasons, the field is also (although less often) referred to as error studies, which, for clarity's sake, is the name I'll use here. Error-studies practitioners are a motley crew, ranging from psycholo­ gists and economists to engineers and business consultants, and the work they do is similarly diverse. Some seek to reduce financial losses for corpo­ rations by eliminating mistakes in manufacturing processes. Others try to improve safety procedures in situations, ranging from angioplasties to air traffic control, where human error poses a major threat to life and health. As that suggests, error studies, unlike epistemology, is an applied science.

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BEING WRONG

Although its researchers look at the psychological as well as the structural reasons we get things wrong, their overall objective is practical: they seek to limit the likelihood and impact of future mistakes. In service of this goal, these researchers have become remarkable tax­ onomists of error. A brief survey of their literature reveals a dizzying prolif­ eration of categories of wrongness. There are slips and lapses and mistakes, errors of planning and errors of execution, errors of commission and errors of omission, design errors and operator errors, endogenous errors and ex­ ogenous errors. I could go on, but only at the expense of plunging you into obscure jargon and precise but-it must be said-painful explication. (A sample: "Mistakes may be defined as deficiencies or failures in the judgmen­ tal and/or inferential processes involved in the selection of an objective or in the specification of the means to achieve it, irrespective of whether or not the actions directed by this decision-scheme run according to plan.") Mistakes may be defined this way, but not by me. Don't misunderstand: I'm grateful to the error-studies folks, as we all should be. At a moment in history when human error could easily unleash disaster on a global scale, they are trying to make our lives safer and easier. And, because they are among the few people who think long and hard about error, I count them as my colleagues in wrongology. The same goes for epistemologists, whose project has somewhat more in common with my own. Still, I depart from both groups of thinkers in important ways. My own interest lies neither in totalizing nor in atomizing error; and my aim is neither to eliminate mis­ takes nor to illuminate a single, capital-T Truth. Instead, I'm interested in error as an idea and as an experience: in how we think about being wrong, and how we feel about it. This attention to how we think and feel about error casts a different light on some of the difficulties with defining it. Take the matter of stakes. The question I raised earlier was whether it ever makes sense to treat minor gaffes and world-altering errors-the car keys and the WMDs-as com­ parable phenomena. In their causes and consequences, these errors are so unalike that including them in the same category seems at best unhelpful and at worst unconscionable. But if we're interested in the human experi­ ence of error, such comparisons become viable-in fact, invaluable. For

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example, we are usually much more willing to entertain the possibility that we are wrong about insignificant matters than about weighty ones. This has a certain emotional logic, but it is deeply lacking in garden-variety logic. In high-stakes situations, we should want to do everything possible to ensure that we are right-which, as we will see, we can only do by imagining all the ways we could be wrong. That we are able to do this when it hardly matters, yet unable to do so when the stakes are huge, suggests that we might learn something important by comparing these otherwise very different experi­ ences. The same can be said of comparing our verifiable and unverifiable beliefs-say, the name of that Mets player versus a contested memory. By examining our sense of certainty and our reaction to error in cases where we turn out to be objectively wrong, we can learn to think differently about our convictions in situations where no one will ever have the final say. This attention to the experience of being wrong resolves some potential objections to my everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach to error. But two important things remain to be said about the scope and method of this project. And they are two important big things: one concerns morality and the other concerns truth. Take morality first. In daily life, we use "wrong" to refer to both error and iniquity: it is wrong to think that the earth is flat, and it is also wrong to push your little brother down the stairs. I'm concerned here only with the former kind of wrongness, but for several reasons, moral issues will be a constant presence in these pages. One such reason is that moral and intellectual wrongness are connected not by mere linguistic coincidence but by a long history of associating error with evil-and, conversely, rightness with righteousness. (We'll hear more about that history in the next chapter.) Another reason is that some of our most significant experiences of error involve reversing moral course. Some­ times, we conclude that we were wrong about the substance of our ethical convictions: that premarital sex actually isn't morally abhorrent, say, or that vegetarianism isn't morally requisite. At other times, we conclude that we were right about our ethics but wrong about the people or institutions we trusted to uphold them. Thus some Communists abandoned their faith in Stalin (but not in Communism) when he signed his nonaggression pact with Hitler, and some Catholics abandoned their church (but not its teach-

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BEING WRONG

ings) after revelations that it had sought to cover up widespread child abuse by priests. These experiences of being wrong about moral issues are distinct from the other errors in this book in content, but not in form. In every case, we place our faith in an idea (or a policy, or a person) only to realize, either by process or by crisis, that it has failed us. A third reason morality will crop up in this book is that many moral wrongs are supported and legitimized by factual errors. To take an obvious example, consider phrenology, the now-discredited "science" of determin­ ing intelligence and personality through the shape of the skull. Through­ out the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, phrenology was used to defend discrimination against foreigners, Jews, Blacks, and other maligned minorities (to say nothing of women, that maligned majority). Here, as in so many cases, intellectual errors enabled moral wrongs. Of course, the opposite is true, too: preexisting prejudices shaped and sustained phrenol­ ogy as much as phrenology shaped and sustained those prejudices. But that's the point. Often, our beliefs about what is factually right and our beliefs about what is morally right are entirely inextricable. There is one final way in which morality is relevant-central, in fact­ to this book. This concerns the moral implications of wrongness itself. As I've already noted, the relationship we cultivate with error affects how we think about and treat our fellow human beings-and how we think about and treat our fellow human beings is the alpha and omega of ethics. Do we have an obligation to others to contemplate the possibility that we are wrong? What responsibility do we bear for the consequences of our mis­ takes? How should we behave toward people when we think that they are wrong? The writer and philosopher Iris Murdoch once observed that no system of ethics can be complete without a mechanism for bringing about moral change. We don't usually think of mistakes as a means to an end, let alone a positive end-and yet, depending on how we answer these ques­ tions, error has the potential to be just such a mechanism. In other words, erring is not only (although it is sometimes) a moral problem. It is also a moral solution: an opportunity, as I said earlier, to rethink our relationship to ourselves, other people, and the world. This sketch of the relationship between moral wrongness and error

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15

brings us almost to the end of our definitional quagmire. But I confess I have saved the swampiest step for last. This is the truth question: whether "right" and "wrong" reflect the real state of the world or are simply subjec­ tive human designations. The conundrum of whether truth exists, how we can arrive at it, and who gets to adjudicate it has preoccupied some of the best thinkers of every culture and era since time immemorial. This obses­ sion has yielded tremendous intellectual and artistic returns, but very little that could truly be called progress, let alone resolution. Safe to say, then, that we aren't going to get to the bottom of these issues here. But we can't just ignore them, either. Socrates was right: no theory of error can exist entirely outside a theory of truth. It's easy to spot the theory of truth implicit in the traditional philo­ sophical definition of wrongness. If we believe that error involves taking something false to be true, then we are also signing on to a belief in truth. In other words, this definition of wrongness assumes the existence of ab­ solute rightness-a fixed and knowable reality against which our mistakes can be measured. Sometimes, that assumption serves us well. There are, after all, plenty of broadly accepted standards of truth; even a committed relativist will likely concede that we can be just plain wrong about, say, the outcome of an election or the paternity of a child. The trouble with this definition is that the opposite is true, too. Even a committed realist will concede that there are many situations where an absolute standard of truth is unavailable. And yet, confronted with such situations, we often continue to act as if right and wrong are the relevant yardsticks. Take the issue of aesthetics. We all know that matters of taste are dif­ ferent from matters of fact-that standards of right and wrong apply to facts but not to preferences. Indeed, we are somehow able to sort this out very early in life. Even young children understand that it's not okay if you think the sky is blue and I think the sky is green, but totally okay if your favorite color is blue and my favorite color is green. Yet it is comically easy to find examples of full-grown adults acting like their own taste is the gospel truth. Mac fanatics are famous for treating PC users like the vic­ tims of a mass delusion. People who swoon over hardwood floors regard wall-to-wall carpeting in Victorian homes as objectively appalling. Neigh-

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BEING WRONG

bors fulminate-or litigate-over one another's exterior paint colors or inflatable lawn ornaments. It is barely an exaggeration to say that I once almost broke up with someone over the question of whether rhubarb pie qualifies as a great dessert (obviously not) and whether The Co"ections qual­ ifies as a great novel (obviously so). Granted, most of us are a bit wry about our tendency to treat our own predilections as the transcendent truth. Still, knowing that this behavior is ridiculous seldom stops us from engaging in it. The late novelist and critic john Updike once noted that the trouble with writing book reviews is that it is "almost impossible to . . . avoid the tone of being wonderfully right." The same goes for our informal reviews of almost everything. It's as if l believe, in some deep-down part of myself, that rhubarb pie radiates a kind of universal ickiness, while The Co"ections, in some intrinsic way, just is brilliant. (And you, my rhubarb pie loving reader, are marveling at how wrong I am.) It follows, then, that anyone sufficiently perceptive and intelligent would respond to these things-to everything-the same way I do. If this is how we act when we know that right and wrong are irrelevant, you can imagine what happens when there really is a fact of the matter, whether or not we ourselves can ever arrive at it. Forget, for a moment, the obvious but treacherous terrain of religion or politics. You can provoke a deep-seated sense of rightness just as swiftly by, say, asking a bunch of scholars of Elizabethan literature who really wrote Hamlet. It's almost im­ possible to imagine any finding that would settle that question to everyone's satisfaction, just as it is almost impossible to imagine how you would get all parties to agree on the origins of human life, or on the necessity of U. S . intervention i n Iraq. Yet i t i s often precisely these irresolvable issues that arouse our most impassioned certainty that we are right and our adversar­ ies are wrong. To my mind, then, any definition of error we choose must be flexible enough to accommodate the way we talk about wrongness when there is no obvious benchmark for being right. To find such a definition, we might return to the experience of error. Rather than thinking of being wrong as believing something is true when

W R O N G O LOGY

17

it is objectively false, we could define it as the experience of rejecting as false a belief we ourselves once thought was true-regardless of that belief's actual relationship to reality, or whether such a relationship can ever be determined. This is a tempting fix, for two reasons. First, with a slight tweak to an established definition of error, it puts PAID to any irksome ques­ tions about truth. Second, it shines the spotlight on an important and often overlooked corner of human experience, one that is central to this book: the hinge moment when we swing from believing one thing to believing its antithesis. Still, as an overall definition, this one seems unsatisfactory as well, since it fails to capture our everyday notion of error. When we accuse someone of being wrong, we don't mean that she is in the throes of reject­ ing one of her own beliefs. We mean that her beliefs are at odds with the real state of the world. In the end, then, neither of these definitions of being wrong-as a de­ viation from external reality, or an internal upheaval in what we believe­ will completely suffice for our purposes. Although I will draw on both ideas, the full human experience of error is too multiform and chameleon to stay put inside either one. In writing about comedy, the French philoso­ pher Henri Bergson argued against "imprisoning the comic spirit within a definition." Instead, he wrote, he hoped to provide his readers with "some­ thing more flexible than an abstract definition-a practical, intimate ac­ quaintance, such as springs from a long companionship." This strikes me as an admirable goal, and one that will serve as well for wrongness as for funniness. For better and worse, error is already our lifelong companion. Surely, then, it's time we got to know it.

Most of the rest of this book-into which I promise to release you very soon-is built around stories of people screwing up. These stories involve, among other things, illusions, magicians, comedians, drug trips, love af­ fairs, misadventures on the high !ieas, bizarre neurological phenomena, medical catastrophes, legal fiascos, some possible consequences of marry­ ing a prostitute, the lamentable failure of the world to end, and Alan Green-

18

BEING WRONG

span. But before we can plunge into the experience of being wrong, we must pause to make an important if somewhat perverse point: there is no experi­ ence of being wrong. There is an experience of realizing that we are wrong, of course. In fact, there is a stunning diversity of such experiences. As we'll see in the pages to come, recognizing our mistakes can be shocking, confusing, funny, embar­ rassing, traumatic, pleasurable, illuminating, and life-altering, sometimes for ill and sometimes for good. But by definition, there can't be any par­ ticular feeling associated with simply being wrong. Indeed, the whole reason it's possible to be wrong is that, while it is happening, you are oblivious to it. When you are simply going about your business in a state you will later decide was delusional, you have no idea of it whatsoever. You are like the coyote in the Road Runner cartoons, after he has gone off the cliff but before he has looked down. Literally in his case and figuratively in yours, you are already in trouble when you feel like you're still on solid ground. So I should revise myself: it does feel like something to be wrong. It feels like being right. This is the problem of error-blindness. Whatever falsehoods each of us currently believes are necessarily invisible to us. Think about the telling fact that error literally doesn't exist in the first person present tense: the sentence "I am wrong" describes a logical impossibility. As soon as we know that we are wrong, we aren't wrong anymore, since to recognize a belief as false is to stop believing it. Thus we can only say "I was wrong." Call it the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of Error: we can be wrong, or we can know it, but we can't do both at the same time. Error-blindness goes some way toward explaining our persistent dif­ ficulty with imagining that we could be wrong. It's easy to ascribe this difficulty to various psychological factors-arrogance, insecurity, and so forth-and these plainly play a role. But error-blindness suggests that an­ other, more structural issue might be at work as well. If it is literally im­ possible to feel wrong-if our current mistakes remain imperceptible to us even when we scrutinize our innermost being for signs of them-then it makes sense for us to conclude that we are right. Similarly, error-blindness helps explain why we accept fallibility as a universal phenomenon yet are

W R O N G O LO GY

19

constantly startled by our own mistakes. The psychologist Marc Green has observed that an error, from the point of view of the person who makes it, is essentially "a Mental Act of God." Although we understand in the abstract that errors happen, our specific mistakes are just as unforeseeable to us as specific tornadoes or specific lightning strikes. (And, as a result, we seldom feel that we should be held accountable for them. By law, after all, no one is answerable for an Act of God.) If our current mistakes are necessarily invisible to us, our past errors have an oddly slippery status as well. Generally speaking, they are either impossible to remember or impossible to forget. This wouldn't be par­ ticularly strange if we consistently forgot our trivial mistakes and consis­ tently remembered the momentous ones, but the situation isn't quite that simple. I can never come across the name of the German writer Goethe without remembering the kindly but amused correction delivered to me by a college professor the first time I said it out loud, as Go-eth. As in pride goeth before a fall. (For readers in my erstwhile boat, it comes closer to rhyming with the name Bertha, minus the H. And the R.) This was a trivial and understandable mistake, yet I seem destined to go to my grave remembering it. Compare that to an experience recounted by Sigmund Freud in The Psy­

chopathology ofEveryday Life (itself a book about erring). Once, while settling his monthly accounts, Freud came upon the name of a patient whose case history he couldn't recall, even though he could see that he had visited her every day for many weeks, scarcely six months previously. He tried for a long time to bring the patient to mind, but for the life of him was unable to do so. When the memory finally came back to him, Freud was astonished by his "almost incredible instance of forgetting." The patient in question was a young woman whose parents brought her in because she complained inces­ santly of stomach pains. Freud diagnosed her with hysteria. A few months later, she died of abdominal cancer. It's hard to say which is stranger: the complete amnesia for the massive error, or the perfect recall for the trivial one. On the whole, though, our ability to forget our mistakes seems keener than our ability to remember them. Over the course of working on this book, when I had occasion to ex-

20

BEING WRONG

plain its .subject matter to strangers, a certain percentage would inevitably respond by saying, "You should interview me, I'm wrong all the time." I would then ask for an example and, almost as inevitably, their brows would furrow, they would fall silent, and after a while, with some puzzlement, they would admit to drawing a blank. As one such would-be interviewee observed, "It's funny; I can sort of picture many times where I've said, 'oh, no, I'm so wrong, this is so bad or so embarrassing,' and I can even sort of recall losing sleep and missing dinners and being all uptight, but I can't actually remember a single specific instance of being wrong." Part of what's going on here is, in essence, a database-design flaw. Most of us don't have a mental category called "Mistakes I Have Made." A close friend of mine, one who knew about this book from its earliest stages, wrote to me two years into the process to say that it had suddenly dawned on her that one of the formative events of her childhood was an experience of dra­ matic wrongness. My friend hadn't forgotten about this event during the previous two years, but it was mentally filed away under other labels (in this case, "times I've been lonely" and "times I've been angry"). As a result­ and despite all the vicarious thinking about wrongness she had done on my behalf-the memory hadn't been accessible to her as a story about error. Like our inability to say "I was wrong,'' this lack of a category called "error" is a communal as well as an individual problem. As someone who tried to review the literature on wrongness, I can tell you that, first, it is vast; and, second, almost none of it is filed under classifications having anything to do with error. Instead, it is distributed across an extremely diverse set of disciplines: philosophy, psychology, behavioral economics, law, medicine, technology, neuroscience, political science, and the history of science, to name just a few. So too with the errors in our own lives. We file them under a range of headings-"embarrassing moments,'' "lessons I've learned," "stuff I used to believe"-but very seldom does an event live inside us with the simple designation "wrong." This category problem is only one reason why our past mistakes can be so elusive. Another is that (as we'll see in more detail later) realizing that we are wrong about a belief almost always involves acquiring a replacement belief at the same time: something else instantly becomes the new right. In

W R O N G O LOGY

21

light of this new belief, the discarded one can quickly come to seem remote, indistinct, and irrelevant, as if we never took it all that seriously in the first place. This convenient erasure of past errors happens on a societal level as well. Doctors don't teach medical students the theory of bodily humors, and astronomy professors don't teach their students to calculate the velocity of the fifty-five concentric spheres Aristotle thought composed the universe. This is practical and efficient pedagogy, but it shores up our tacit assump­ tion that current belief is identical with true belief, and it reinforces our generaliz�d sense of rightness. What with error-blindness, our amnesia for our mistakes, the lack of a category called "error," and our tendency to instantly overwrite rejected beliefs, it's no wonder we have so much trouble accepting that wrongness is a part of who we are. Because we don't experience, remember, track, or retain mistakes as a feature of our inner landscape, wrongness always seems to come at us from left field-that is, from outside ourselves. But the real­ ity could hardly be more different. Error is the ultimate inside job. Yes, the world can be profoundly confusing; and yes, other people can mislead or deceive you. In the end, though, nobody but you can choose to believe your own beliefs. That's part of why recognizing our errors is such a strange experience: accustomed to disagreeing with other people, we suddenly find ourselves at odds with ourselves. Error, in that moment, is less an intellectual problem than an existential one-a crisis not in what we know, but in who we are. We hear something of that identity crisis in the questions we ask ourselves in the aftermath of error: What was I thinking? How could I have

done that? These private questions about the origins of error echo a broader public inquiry that has been under way since time immemorial. If wrongness both haunts and eludes us, we can take comfort from the fact that it has done the same for countless generations of theologians, philosophers, psycholo­ gists, sociologists, and scientists. Many of the religious thinkers who tried to understand why we err found their answer at the gates of the Garden of Eden. Thus Thomas Aquinas, the thirteenth-century scholastic, held that we make mistakes because, when we were banished from paradise, we were cut off forever from direct access to divine truth. To Aquinas and many of

22

BEING WRONG

his fellow theologians, our errors arise from the gap between our own lim­ ited and blemished minds and God's unlimited and perfect omniscience. This same basic idea has received countless secular treatments as well. Plato thought that our primordial soul was at one with the universe, and that we only began to err when we took on our current physical form and forgot those cosmic truths. The Enlightenment philosopher John Locke thought that error seeped into our lives from the gap between the artificial­ ity of words and the reality of the things they name-from the distance be­ tween an indescribable essence and the nearest sayable thing. The German philosopher Martin Heidegger thought that error could be explained by the fact that we live in time and space; because we are bound to a particu­ lar set of coordinates, we can't rise above them and see reality as a whole, from a bird's-eye (or God's-eye) view. As different as these explanations seem, all these thinkers and many more conceived of error as arising from a gap: sometimes between the particular and the general, sometimes be­ tween words and things, sometimes between the present and the primeval, sometimes between the mortal and the divine-but in every case, and fun­ damentally, between our own mind and the rest of the world. For the most part, we spend our lives blithely ignoring this gap. And with good reason. Who wants to be reminded of the fall from grace, the separation from truth, the particular and limited nature of our existence? When we get things wrong, however, this rift between internal and exter­ nal realities suddenly reveals itself. That's one reason why erring can be so disquieting. But another, oddly paradoxical reason is our failure to spot this rift earlier. Our mistakes show us that the contents of our minds can be as convincing as reality. That's a dismaying discovery, because it is precisely this quality of convincing-ness, of verisimilitude, that we rely on as our guide to what is right and real. Yet if we find this mental trickery troubling, we should also find it com­ forting. The miracle of the human mind, after all, is that it can show us the world not only as it is, but also as it is not : as we remember it from the past, as we hope or fear it will be in the future, as we imagine it might be in some other place or for some other person. We already saw that "see-

W R O N G O LOGY

23

ing the world as it is not" is pretty much the definition of erring-but it is also the essence of imagination, invention, and hope. As that suggests, our errors sometimes bear far sweeter fruits than the failure and shame we associate with them. True, they represent a moment of alienation, both from ourselves and from a previously convincing vision of the world. But what's wrong with that? "To alienate" means to make unfamiliar; and to see things-including ourselves-as unfamiliar is an opportunity to see them anew. For error to help us see things differently, however, we have to see it differently first. That is the goal of this book: to foster an intimacy with our own fallibility, to expand our vocabulary for and interest in talking about our mistakes, and to linger for a while inside the normally elusive and ephemeral experience of being wrong. There's an obvious practical reason to do this, which is that our mistakes can be disastrous. They can cost us time and money, sabotage our self-confidence, and erode the trust and esteem extended to us by others. They can land us in the emergency room, or in the dog house, or in a lifetime's worth of therapy. They can hurt and humiliate us; worse, they can hurt and humiliate other people. In short, to the degree that we can prevent them, we probably should. And to do that, we need to understand why we err in the first place. That said, it should be clear by now that this book isn't intended as a self-help guide for the chronically wrong-How To Error-Proof Your Life, say, or Thirty Days to a Righter You. On the contrary, it is far more a defense

of wrongness than a defense against it. This book takes seriously Augus­ tine's suggestion that error is somehow essential to who we are, and sets out to explore just how this is so. In Part One, I trace the history of how we think about wrongness and the emergence of two opposing models of error-models that also reflect our ideas about what kind of creatures we are and what kind of universe we live in. In Part Two, I explore the many factors that can cause us to screw up, from our senses to our higher cogni­ tive processes to our social conventions. In Part Three, I move from why we get things wrong to how we feel when we do so. This part of the book traces the emotional arc of erring, from the experience of realizing we went

24

BEING WRONG

astray to how that experience can transform our worldviews, our relation­ ships, and-most profoundly-ourselves. The last part of this book turns from the origins and experience of error to its avoidable hazards and unexpected pleasures. Here, I look at how embracing our fallibility not only lessens our likelihood of erring, but also helps us think more creatively, treat each other more thoughtfully, and construct freer and fairer societies. In the final chapter, I encourage us to see error as a gift in itself-a rich and irreplaceable source of humor, art, illumination, individuality, and change. This book opened with the plea­ sure of being right, but it will conclude with the more complicated, more interesting, and ultimately more revelatory pleasure of being wrong.

2.

Two M o d els of W rong n e s s

Our errors are surely not such awfully solemn things. In a world where we are so certain to incur them in spite of all our caution, a certain lightness of heart seems healthier than this excessive nervousness on their behalf.

-WILLIAM }AMES, "THE WILL

TO

BELIEVE"

Ross Gelbspan is a colleague of mine, a fellow journalist who has been writing about environmental issues for forty-odd years. Back in 1972, when he was working for the Village Voice, he covered a press conference about

The Limits to Growth, a study of the impact of economic development and population pressures on natural resources. The Limits to Growth made head­ lines all over the world when it was published, and is still the best-selling environmental book of all time. "It was very interesting, very frightening stuff," Ross recalled. "The press conference was about how all these various factors-increasing popu­ lation, increasing pollution, diminishing resources-were going to hit a

26

BEING WRONG

point of exponential takeoff." One of the speakers at the conference was Donella Meadows, a coauthor of the book and a pioneering environmental scientist. Sitting in the audience during her presentation, Ross was struck by the contrast between the grim predictions she was describing and the fact that she was pregnant-that, as he put it, "she had somehow found per­ sonal hopefulness in the midst of this really massive gloom and doom." He saw it as a small grace note, a reminder about the possibility of optimism and renewal in even the hardest of times, and he used it as the kicker to his story. The Voice printed the article on the front page. That would have been nice for Ross-except that Donella Meadows wasn't pregnant. Certain mistakes can actually kill us, but many, many more of them just make us want to die. That's why the word "mortify" comes up so often when people talk about their errors. Here is Ross, verbatim: "I was mortified. I mean, mortified mortified. I was not a rookie. I'd been a reporter since 1961. I'd worked for the Philadelphia Bulletin, I'd worked for the Washington Post. But I'd never made an error like that, and I cannot begin to describe the embarrassment. Truth is, I'm still mortified when I talk about it." Nearly forty years have elapsed since Ross's article was published. The world has, in varying degrees, ignored, learned from, and defied the predictions in The

Limits to Growth. Donella Meadows died in 2001. Even journalism as we know it is on its way out. Ross's embarrassment has outlived it all. When I told him the expected publication date for this book, he said, "Good-with luck I'll be dead by then." Granted, Ross's mistake was particularly awkward. But it was not par­ ticularly consequential-not for Meadows, who was gracious about it; not for Ross; not even for Ross's career. So wasn't wanting to die something of an extreme reaction? Maybe. But if so, it is an extreme reaction to which we all sometimes succumb. Indeed, one of our recurrent responses to error is to wish ourselves out of existence. Describing the moment of realizing certain mistakes, we say that we wanted to crawl into a cave, or fall through a hole in the floor, or simply disappear. And we talk about "losing face," as if our mistakes really did cause us to disappear-as if our identity was rubbed out by the experience of being wrong. In addition to this death-wish response to error, we have another reac-

TWO MODELS O F WRONGN ESS

27

tion that is less drastic. But more gastric: sometimes, instead of wanting to die, we just want to vomit. Or so one might assume from the strangely culinary vocabulary we use to talk about being wrong. In the aftermath of our mistakes, we eat crow, eat humble pie, eat our hat, or, at the other end of the sartorial menu, eat our shoe. And, of course, we eat our words. These sayings differ in their origins, but the overall implication is clear: error is both extremely unappetizing and very tough to digest. If being right is succulent, being wrong runs a narrow, unhappy gamut from nauseating to worse than death. This is the received wisdom about error: that it is dangerous, humiliat­ ing, distasteful, and, all told, un-fun in the extreme. This view of error­ let's call it the pessimistic model-has some merit. As I acknowledged earlier (and as everyone knows), our mistakes really can be irritating or humiliating or harmful, to ourselves as well as to others. To dismiss that fact would be disingenuous, but as an overall outlook on wron gness, the pessimistic one is radically incomplete. To begin with, it obscures the fact that whatever damage can arise from erring pales in comparison to the damage that arises from our fear, dislike, and denial of erring. This fear acts as a kind of om­ nipurpose coagulant, hardening heart and mind, chilling our relationships with other people, and cooling our curiosity about the world. Like many fears, the fear of being wrong stems partly from a lack of understanding. The pessimistic model of error tells us that wrongness is unpleasant, but it doesn't tell us why, and it has nothing at all to say about errors that don't turn out to be disagreeable. To account for the breadth of our real-life experiences with wrongness, we need to pair the pessimistic outlook with another one. In this second, optimistic model of error, the ex­ perience of being wrong isn't limited to humiliation and defeat. Actually, in this model, the experience of being wrong is hardly limited at all. Surprise, bafflement,-fascination, excitement, hilarity, delight: all these and more are a part of the optimistic understanding of error. This model is harder to rec­ ognize around us, since it is forever being crowded out by the noisier notion that error is dangerous, demoralizing, and shameful. But it exists nonethe­ less, and it exerts a subtle yet important pull both on our ideas about error and on our ideas about ourselves.

28

BEING WRONG

These two models of error, optimistic and pessimistic, are i n perpetual tension with each other. We could try to study them in isolation-the dis­ comforts and dangers of being wrong over here, its delights and dividends over there-and we could try to adjudicate between them. But it is when we take these two models together, not when we take them apart, that we begin to understand the forces that shape how we think and feel about being wrong.

"Our errors are surely not such awfully solemn things." That cheery quote, which heads this chapter, could be the motto of the optimistic model of wrongness; and its author, the nineteenth-century philosopher and psy­ chologist William James, could serve as its foremost spokesperson. For a representative of the pessimistic model, we might return to Thomas Aqui­ nas, the medieval monk who tipped his hand in the last chapter by associat­ ing error with original sin. "The mind being the faculty of truth," wrote the philosopher Leo Keeler, both summarizing and quoting Aquinas, "error cannot be its normal fruit, but will necessarily have the character of a defective byproduct, an accidental disorder, a miscarriage comparable to 'monstrous births' in nature." Defective, accidental, monstrous, a miscarriage: the message is clear enough. For Aquinas, error was not merely abhorrent but also abnormal, a perversion of the prescribed order of things. William James, had he been around, would have had none of it-none of the revulsion (this was a man whose prescription for error was "a certain lightness of heart"), and none of the business about abnormality, either. Given that all of us get things wrong again and again, how abnormal, he might have asked, can error pos­ sibly be? This debate over whether error is normal or abnormal is central to the history of how we think about wrongness. What's most interesting about the debate isn't what it tells us about wrongness per se, but what it tells us about the kind of creatures we think we are and the kind of world we think we live in. Take Aquinas and James: they fundamentally disagreed, but their disagreement was only secondarily about error. The real issue was Aquinas's

TWO MODELS O F WRO N G N ESS

29

claim about "the mind being the faculty of truth." If you believe, as he did, that there is a truth and that (to borrow James's formulation) "our minds and it are made for each other," then error is both deplorable and difficult to explain. On the other hand, if you believe that truth is not necessarily fixed or knowable, and that the human mind, while a dazzling entity in its own right (in fact, because it is a dazzling entity in its own right), is not reality's looking glass-if you believe all of that, as James did, then error is both explicable and acceptable. These competing ideas of error crop up in efforts to define the term, as we saw when we tried to do so ourselves. In the 1600s, France's Larousse dictionary defined error, rather beautifully, as "a vagabondage of the imagi­ nation, of the mind that is not subject to any rule." Scarcely a hundred years later, in the same country, Denis Diderot's famed Encyclopidie defined it, instead, as endemic to every human mind, that "magic mirror" in which the real world is distorted into "shadows and monsters." These two definitions suggest two markedly different understandings of human nature. As error goes from being a hallmark of the lawless mind to our native condition, people cease to be fundamentally perfectible and become fundamentally imperfect. Meanwhile, truth goes from being a prize that can be achieved through spiritual or intellectual discipline to a fugitive that forever eludes the human mind. The history of error is not an account of the shift from one of these frameworks to the other. Instead, it is an ongoing, millennia-long argu­ ment between the two. Over that time, this argument has come to be de­ fined by several other questions, in addition and closely related to whether screwing up is basically aberrant or basically normal. One of these ques­ tions is whether error is with us to stay or if it can somehow be eradicated. James Sully, a British psychologist whose 1881 Illusions constitutes perhaps the most thoroughgoing early investigation of human error, thought that most forms of it would eventually be overcome. Observing that "the power of introspection is a comparatively new acquisition of the human race," Sully concluded that "as it improves, the amount of error connected with its operation may reasonably be expected to become infinitesimal." A similar sentiment was expressed a half-century later by Joseph Jas-

30

BEING WRONG

trow, a n American psychologist who conceived and edited a n anthology of folly across the ages that he titled The Story of Human Error. A story, it might be observed, traditionally has a beginning, a middle, and an end, and Jastrow clearly thought we were approaching the final chapter in the history of wrongness. Praising "the present peak of scientific achievement," he predicted that "such advances in the uses of mind . . . mark the deci­ sive stages in the elimination of error." Jastrow was inspired to write his book by a visit to the 1933 World's Fair, which was appropriate since such events are themselves often paeans to the perfectibility of the human race. At the 1939 fair in New York, for example, the literature at the "World of Tomorrow" exhibit reproved its visitors for "still grant[ing] to belief or opinion the loyalty which should go only to fact," while prophesying that in the future, "we will behave as the trained scientist behaves today. We will welcome the new, test it thoroughly, and accept it joyously, in truly scientific fashion." Inevitably, from the present vantage point, these rosy predictions sound hopelessly dated and naive. But the idea that we can eradicate error­ through evolutionary advancement, technological innovation, establishing an ideal society, or spreading the word of God-has a timeless hold on the human imagination. Implicit in this idea is the belief that we should want to eradicate error. And, sometimes, we should: we'd all be happy to see mistakes permanently disappear from, say, the nuclear power industry. But eradicating the entirety of error is another matter. Practicality aside, such an objective presents three problems. The first is that, to believe we can eradicate error, we must also believe that we can consistently distinguish between it and the truth-a faith squarely at odds with remembering that we ourselves could be wrong. Thus the catch-22 of wrongology: in order to get rid of error, we would already need to be infallible. The second problem with this goal is that virtually all efforts at eradication-even genuinely well-intentioned ones-succumb to the law of unintended consequences. Take the pests out of their ecological niche, and pretty soon you won't have any hummingbirds or marmots or moun­ tain lions, either. Even if you can't be brought to believe that error itself

TWO MODELS OF WRO N G N ESS

31

is a good thing, I hope to convince you by the end of this book that it is inseparably linked to other good things, things we definitely do not want to eliminate-like, say, our intelligence. The final problem with seeking to eradicate error is that many such efforts are not well intentioned-or if they are, they tend in the direction for which good intentions are infamous. Here, for instance, is Sully, aver­ ring that error's "grosser forms manifest themselves most conspicuously in the undisciplined mind of the savage and the rustic." And here is the an­ thropologist Ralph Linton, a contributor to Jastrow's anthology, observing (critically) that at one time, "all heathen cultures were [regarded as] at best examples of human error, while at worst they were devices of Satan, devised to keep damned souls securely in his net. In either case it was the duty of Christians to destroy them." As these quotations make clear, it is alarm­ ingly easy to impute error to those whose beliefs and backgrounds differ from our own. And, as they also show, there is a slippery slope between ad­ vocating the elimination of putatively erroneous beliefs, and advocating the elimination of the institutions, cultures, and-most alarmingly-people who hold them. The idea that error can be eradicated, then, contains within it a fright­ eningly reactionary impulse. And yet, at heart, it is an idea about progress: a belief that there is an apex of human achievement, and that the way to reach it is through the steady reduction and eventual elimination of mis­ takes. But we have another, competing idea of progress as well-one that rests not on the elimination of error but, surprisingly, on its perpetuation. This idea began to emerge during the Scientific Revolution, through that era's hallmark development, the scientific method. It is a measure of the method's success (and its simplicity, in theory if not in practice) that, some 400 years later, virtually every reader of this book will have learned it in junior high school. The gist of the scientific method is that observations lead to hypotheses (which must be testable), which are then subjected to experiments (whose results must be reproducible). If all goes well, the out­ come is a theory, a logically consistent, empirically tested explanation for a natural phenomenon.

32

BEING WRONG

As an ideal of intellectual inquiry and a strategy for the advancement of knowledge, the scientific method is essentially a monument to the utility of error. Most of us gravitate toward trying to verify our beliefs, to the extent that we bother investigating their validity at all. But scientists gravitate toward falsification; as a community if not as individuals, they seek to disprove their beliefs. Thus, the defining feature of a hypothesis is that it has the potential to be proven wrong (which is why it must be both testable and tested), and the defining feature of a theory is that it hasn't been proven wrong yet. But the important part is that it can be-no matter how much evidence appears to confirm it, no matter how many experts endorse it, no matter how much popular support it enjoys. In fact, not only can any given theory be proven wrong; as we saw in the last chapter, sooner or later, it probably will be. And when it is, the occasion will mark the success of science, not its failure. This was the pivotal insight of the Scientific Revolution: that the advancement of knowledge depends on current theories collapsing in the face of new insights and discoveries. In this model of progress, errors do not lead us away from the truth. Instead, they edge us incrementally toward it. During and after the Scientific Revolution, the leading minds of West­ ern Europe took this principle and generalized it. As they saw it, not only scientific theories but also political, social, and even aesthetic ideas were subject to this same pattern of collapse, replacement, and advancement. In essence, these thinkers identified the problem of error-blindness on a gen­ erational and communal scale. We can no more spot the collective errors of our culture than we can spot our own private ones, but we can be sure that they are lurking somewhere. The thinkers responsible for this insight came by it honestly. They lived at a time when fifteen centuries of foundational truths had lately been dis­ proved or displaced by a staggering influx of new information: about previ­ ously unknown plants and animals, about geology and geography, about the structure of the universe, about the breadth and diversity of human culture. In our own globally intimate, Google-mapped era, it is almost impossible to fathom the degree of intellectual and emotional disruption all that new in­ formation must have occasioned. I suppose that if tomorrow a UFO landed in Pittsburgh, I might experience a comparable combination of stunning

TWO MODELS O F WRON G N ESS

33

error and thrilling possibility. Certainly I would have to rebuild my under­ standing of the cosmos from the ground up. Faced with that task, many of these thinkers concluded that the best and safest tool for this sweeping intellectual reconstruction was doubt: deep, systematic, abiding, all-encompassing doubt. Thus Michel de Montaigne, the great Renaissance philosopher and essayist, inscribed above the door of his study que sais-je?-what do I know? And thus Descartes set himself the task of doubting everything, up to and including his own existence (a proj­ ect we'll hear more about later). These thinkers weren't nihilists, nor even skeptics. They believed in truth, and they wanted to discover it. But they were chastened by the still-palpable possibility of drastic error, and they understood that, from a sufficiently distant vantage point, even their most cherished convictions might come to look like mistakes. What was new and radical about this perspective wasn't the recognition of how difficult it is to distinguish error from truth. That idea is at least as old as Plato. It appears in the Bible as well-for instance, as the question of how to tell false prophets from true. ("For Satan himself masquerades as an angel of light," we read in 2 Corinthians.) Renaissance and Enlightenment thinkers would also have been familiar with this idea from the work of their medieval counterparts, who often characterized errors as ignes fatui-liter­ ally fool's fires, although often translated as false or phantom fires. Today we know these false fires as will o' the wisps: mysterious wandering lights that, in folklore, lead unwary travelers astray, typically into the depths of a swamp or over the edge of a cliff. Less romantically, false fires also referred to the ones lit by bandits to fool travelers into thinking they were approach­ ing an inn or town. In either case, the metaphor says it all: error, disguised as the light of truth, leads directly into trouble. But Enlightenment thinkers mined a previously unnoticed aspect of this image. Error, they observed, wasn't simply darkness, the absolute absence of the light of truth. Instead, it shed a light of its own. True, that light might be flickering or phantasma­ goric, but it was still a source of illumination. In this model, error is not the opposite of truth so much as asymptotic to it-a kind of human approxima­ tion of truth, a truth-for-now. This is another important dispute in the history of how we think about

34

BEING WRONG

being wrong: whether error represents a n obstacle i n the path toward truth, or the path itself. The former idea is the conventional one. The latter, as we have seen, emerged during the Scientific Revolution and continued to evolve throughout the Enlightenment. But it didn't really reach its zenith until the early nineteenth century, when the French mathematician and astronomer Pierre-Simon Laplace refined the theory of the distribution of errors, illustrated by the now-familiar bell curve. Also known as the error curve or the normal distribution, the bell curve is a way of aggregating individually meaningless, idiosyncratic, or inaccurate data points in order to generate a meaningful and accurate big picture. Laplace, for instance, used the bell curve to determine the precise orbit of the planets. Such movements had been recorded since virtually the beginning of history, but those records were unreliable, afflicted by the distortion intrinsic to all human observation. By using the normal distribution to graph these individually imperfect data points, Laplace was able to generate a far more precise picture of the galaxy. Unlike earlier thinkers, who had sought to improve their accuracy by getting rid of error, Laplace realized that you should try to get more error: aggregate enough flawed data, and you get a glimpse of the truth. "The genius of statistics, as Laplace defined it, was that it did not ignore errors; it quantified them," the writer Louis Menand observed. " . . . The right answer is, in a sense, a function of the mistakes." For thinkers of that particular historical mo­ ment, who believed in the existence of an ordained truth while simultane­ ously recognizing the omnipresence of error, the bell curve represented a kind of holy grail: wrongness contained, curtailed, and coaxed into reveal­ ing its opposite:

*

If Laplace helped catapult the bell curve into fame, another astronomer, the Belgian

Adolphe Quetelet, helped it achieve something closer to infamy. Quetelet gathered data about people-about our heights and criminal records and number of children and age at death-and graphed them the way Laplace had graphed the stars. In the theory of the distribution of errors, he realized, the particular quirks and characteristics of any given human represented the errors: deviations from a norm that only became visible when all those quirks were aggregated. This innovation solidified an association, implicit since antiquity, between being deviant and being wrong-and, conversely, between being

TWO M O D E L S O F WRO N G N ESS

35

A century later, the idea that errors reveal rather than obscure the truth gained a powerful new proponent in Freud. But while earlier think­ ers had been interested primarily in external truths-in the facts of the world as ordained by nature or God-Freud's domain was the internal. The truths he cared about are the ones we stash away in our unconscious. By definition, those truths are inaccessible to the reasoning mind-but, Freud argued in The Psychopathology of Everyday Life, we can catch occa­ sional glimpses of them, and one way we do so is through error. Today, we know these truth-revealing errors as Freudian slips-as the old saw goes, saying one thing and meaning your mother. According to Freud, these seemingly trivial mistakes are neither trivial nor even, in any stan­ dard sense, mistakes. That is, they aren't the result of accident or absent­ mindedness or the misfiring of a stray neuron or any such mundane cause. Instead, they arise from-and therefore illuminate-a submerged but sig­ nificant psychic truth. In this view, such errors are envoys from our own innermost universe; and, however garbled their messages may be, they contain valuable information about what's really going on in there. In addition to these slips, Freud also thought there were a few other avenues by which the secret truths of the unconscious could seep out. One of these, dreams, is relevant to us all. Another, relevant only to the unfor­ tunate few, is insanity. At first, dreams and madness might not seem terribly germane to this book. But what these two conditions have in common with each other is the misperception of reality-which, you'll recall, is also one definition (indeed, the earliest and most pervasive one) of being wrong. To better understand our mundane misperceptions, it pays to look closely at our extreme ones. So that is where I want to turn now-to dreams, drug trips, hallucinations, and madness; and, by way of those examples, to a closer look at the notion that, through error, we perceive the truth. •

•

•

normal and being right. (It was Quetelet who came up with that stock character of sta­ tistics, the "average man.") For more on the potential insidiousness of this innovation, I refer the reader to the notes.

36

BEING WRONG

However far-fetched this connection between wrongness and whacked­ outness might seem, you yourself invoke it routinely. I say this with some confidence, because our everyday ways of thinking and talking about error borrow heavily from the argot of altered states. For starters, we commonly (if crudely) compare being wrong to being high. Try saying something pa­ tently erroneous to a member of my generation, and you'd better be pre­ pared to hear "what are you smoking?" or "are you on crack? " Likewise, we seldom hesitate to impute insanity to people who strongly hold beliefs that we strongly reject. (Witness all the mudslinging about "liberal luna­ tics" and "right-wing wingnuts.") Finally, we talk about snapping out of our false beliefs as if they were trances and waking up from them as if they were dreams. Of all these analogies, the association between erring and dreaming is the most persistent and explicit. "Do you not see," asked the eleventh­ century Islamic philosopher and theologian Abu Hamid Muhammad al­ Ghazali, "that while asleep you assume your dreams to be indisputably real? Once awake, you recognize them for what they are-baseless chime­ ras." The same could be said, he observed, of our waking beliefs. "In rela­ tion to your present state they may be real; but it is possible also that you may enter upon another state of being"-and from the vantage point of that future state, he continued, your present one will seem as self-evidently false as your dreams do when you awake. Although we treat errors and altered states as analogous in certain ways, there is one important respect in which we treat them very differently. As I began this chapter by noting, mistakes, even minor ones, often make us feel like we're going to be sick, or like we want to die. But altered states-some of which really can sicken or kill us-frequently enthrall us. We keep jour­ nals of our dreams and recount them to our friends and family (to say noth­ ing of our therapists). We feel that our lives are illuminated and enriched by them, and we regard those who seldom remember theirs as, in some small but important way, impoverished. We are highly motivated to seek out the reality-altering power of drugs, despite the danger of overdose, addiction, or arrest. The delirium of extreme illness is arguably even riskier, not to mention harder to come by and all-around less desirable. Yet I will say this:

TWO M O D ELS O F WRO N G N ESS

37

once, while running a very high fever in a tropical rainforest, I carried on a long conversation with the poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge, who was sitting on the end of my bed, knitting. Coleridge, of course, was long dead, and as for me, I've never been sicker. But I've almost never been so mesmerized or elated, either-and, since then, I haven't once taken medicine to reduce a fever. If, on those occasions when I'm already sick anyway, I could take a pill to increase my temperature instead, to nudge it up just into the zone of hal­ lucination, I would seriously consider doing so. Granted, it's not what the doctor ordered-in fact, it's plainly idiotic-but that's the point. Altered states are so compelling that we often do what we can, wisely or otherwise, to produce, reproduce, and prolong them. The attraction of an altered state is not, as one might initially imagine, just its pure weirdness-how far it diverges from everyday life. Instead, it is the combination of this weirdness and its proximity to everyday life. What is altered, in an altered state, are the elements of the world, the rela­ tions among them, and the rules that govern them. But the way we experi­ ence these states remains essentially unchanged. The tools we use to gauge and understand the sober world-our reason, our emotions, and above all our senses-are largely unimpaired and sometimes even enhanced in the trippy one. As a result, these false worlds have all the intimacy, intensity, and physicality-in short, all the indicators of reality-of the true one. What does it mean about the realness of reality if it is so susceptible to alteration-by a dream, a drug, a difference of just a few degrees in body temperature? And, conversely, what does it mean about the supposedly un­ real if it is so easy to conjure and so intensely convincing? These questions have haunted our collective imagination from A Midsummer Night 's Dream to The Matrix (both of which, incidentally, hinge on drug trips). One of the most consistent answers-and the crucial one, for my purposes-is that the false and the true are reversed: that the unreal is, so to speak, the real real. Freud, as I've already noted, believed that the false worlds of our dreams reveal deep and hidden truths about ourselves. So did the writer Artemido­ rus Daldianus, who, almost two thousand years earlier, penned the Oneiro­

critica-a Greek Interpretation ofDreams. And they weren't alone. Virtually every culture in every era has believed that dreams express otherwise inac-

38

BEING WRONG

cessible truths about the dreamer: about her forgotten or unknown past, her secret beliefs and desires, her destiny. In the same vein, virtually every culture in every era (with the halfway exception of the industrialized West) has regarded visions and hallucinations as revealing the otherwise inacces­ sible truths of the universe. From Siberian shamans to Aztec priests to the Merry Pranksters to spiritually inclined potheads the world over (ancient Christians, early Jews, Scythians, Sikhs, Sufis, and Rastafarians, to name just a few), we have regarded our drugs as entheogens-substances that can lay bare the truth of the cosmos and show us the face of God. If dreams and drug states create acute but temporary alterations in our understanding of reality, the acute and ongoing version is insanity. You might think (and hope) that insanity would take us even further away from everyday error, but instead it brings us full circle. Diderot's Encyclopidie defined madness as the act of departing from reason "with confidence and in the firm conviction that one is following it." Maybe so, but if that's how we go crazy, it is also how we go wrong. The more recent French philoso­ pher and historian Michel Foucault called insanity "the purest and most complete form of quid pro quo"-of taking one thing for another. To take something for something it is not: If that's not error, what is? Ultimately, only three factors seem to distinguish the false reality of madness from the false reality of wrongness. The first is purity, as in Fou­ cault's "purest form": insanity is error undiluted. The second is consistency: one noted early classifier of disease, the eighteenth-century physician Fran­ �ois Boissier de Sauvages, described the insane as those "who persist in some notable error." The third factor concerns substance: which quid you take for which quo. We can be wrong about all manner of things, even per­ sistently and purely wrong about them, while still retaining our claim to sanity-just so long as enough other people are wrong about them, too. This point is made by the medical definition of delusion ("a false belief not

shared by others"), but not nearly as well as it was made by the Renaissance scholar Desiderius Erasmus in The Praise ofFolly. "The reason a person who believes he sees a woman when in reality he is looking at a gourd is called crazy is because this is something beyond usual experience," he wrote.

TWO M O D ELS O F W RO N G N E S S

39

"However, when a person thinks his wife, who is enjoyed by many, to be an ever-faithful Penelope, he is not called insane at all''-although he is called wrong-"because people know that this is a common thing in marriage." In other words, error in extremis-extremely pure, extremely persistent, or extremely peculiar-becomes insanity. Madness is radical wrongness. Like all equations, this one is reversible. If madness is radical wrong­ ness, being wrong is minor madness. Thus Sully, the author of Illusions, conceived of error as a "border-land between perfectly sane and vigorous mental life and dementia." Something of the same attitude is reflected in the Romance languages, in which being right is rendered as being sane: in French,j�i raison; in Spanish, tengo razon. Translation: I have reason on my side, I'm in possession of my senses-whereas you, my errant friend, are straying near the borders of crazy. Minor madness can also be an apt de­ scription of how being wrong actually feels. We will meet more than one person in this book who characterizes his or her experience of error as scar­ ily similar to insanity. We already saw that hallucinations and dreams are widely regarded as revealing greater truths. So too with madness. Societies throughout the ages have nurtured the belief that the insane among us illuminate things as they truly are, despite their own ostensibly deranged relationship to re­ ality. That's why, in literature, it is always the fools (those who never had any sense in the first place) and the madmen (those who lost it) who speak truth to power. (Children-i.e., those who have not yet reached the age of reason-sometimes play this role as well.) This narrative of wrongness as rightness might have achieved its apotheosis in King Lear, a play that fea­ tures a real madman (Lear, after he loses it), a sane man disguised as a mad­ man (Edgar), a blind man (Gloucester), and a fool (the Fool). I don't know where else so many characters have been set in orbit around the idea of truth, or where else truth itself has been so set on its head. Here, wisdom is folly ("for wise men are grown foppish," observes the Fool), and folly is wis­ dom ("This [Fool] is not altogether fool, my lord," the king's courtier dryly notes). Blindness is insight: "I stumbled when I saw," says Gloucester, who perceives the truth only after he has lost his eyes. And insanity is intellec-

40

BEING WRONG

tual and moral clarity: it is only after Lear loses his daughters and his senses that he understands what he has done and can feel both loss and love. This idea-that from error springs insight-is a hallmark of the opti­ mistic model of wrongness. It holds even for mundane mistakes, which is why proponents of this model (myself included) see erring as vital to any process of invention and creation. The example of altered states simply throws this faith into relief: make the error extreme enough, depart not a little way but all the way from agreed-upon reality, and suddenly the humdrum of human fallibility gives way to an ecstasy of understanding. In place of humiliation and falsehood, we find fulfillment and illumination. We hear this strangely intimate relationship between error and truth in the double meaning of the word "vision," which conveys both delusion and revelation. Unfortunately, as proponents of the pessimistic model of wrongness will be quick to point out, the reassuring notion that error yields insight does not always comport with experience. Sometimes, being wrong feels like the death of insight-the moment when a great idea or a grounding belief collapses out from under us. And sometimes, too, our mistakes take too great a toll to be redeemed by easy assurances of lessons learned. Here, as everywhere, the pessimistic and optimistic models part ways on the fun­ damental meaning of wrongness. Our errors expose the real nature of the universe-or they obscure it. They lead us toward the truth, or they lead us astray. They are the opposite of reality, or its almost indistinguishable approximation-certainly as close as we mere mortals can ever hope to get. They are abnormalities we should work to eliminate, or inevitabilities we should strive to accept. They are essentially "monstrous." They are quintes­ sentially human. Together, these two conflicting models form the backbone of our un­ derstanding of error. Even if we've never contemplated them before, they account for the contradictions in how we think about being wrong, and for the varying ways we experience it. Before we turn to those experiences, I want to introduce two figures who vividly embody these different models of wrongness. Unlike the various error-stricken individuals we'll meet in the rest of this book, these figures do not actually exist. They are creatures of

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41

mythology, and they do not so much err as animate-and illuminate-the ways we think about error.

In ancient Indo-European, the ancestral language of nearly half of today's global population, the word er meant "to move," "to set in motion," or simply "to go." (Spanish speakers will recognize it as ir.) That root gave rise to the Latin verb errare, meaning to wander or, more rakishly, to roam. The Latin, in turn, gave us the English word "erratic," used to describe movement that is unpredictable or aimless. And, of course, it gave us "error." From the beginning, then, the idea of error has contained a sense of motion: of wan­ dering, seeking, going astray. Implicitly, what we are seeking-and what we have strayed from-is the truth: In the two archetypal wanderers of Western culture, we see clearly the contrasting ideas that shape our understanding of error. One of these is the knight errant and the other is the juif errant-the wandering Jew. The latter figure, a staple of anti-Semitic propaganda, derives from a medieval Christian legend in which a Jew, encountering Jesus on the road to the crucifixion, taunts him for moving so slowly under the weight of the cross. In response, Jesus condemns the man to roam the earth until the end of time. As the historian David Bates has observed, the wandering Jew "liter­ ally embodied, for Christian Europeans, the individual separated from the truth." In this model, erring is inextricably linked to both sin and exile. To err is to experience estrangement from God and alienation among men. The knight errant is also a staple of medieval legend, but otherwise he could scarcely be more different. Where the wandering Jew is defined by his sin, the knight errant is distinguished by his virtue; he is explicitly and unfailingly on the side of good. His most famous representatives include Galahad, Gawain, and Lancelot, those most burnished of knights in shin­ ing armor. (A bit further afield, they also include Don Quixote, who, as

•

Here, too, we can detect the intertwined histories of wrongness and madness. The

word "hallucinate" comes from the Latin meaning to wander mentally, while "raving" comes from "roving."

42

BEING WRONG

both knight errant and utter lunatic, deserves his own special place i n the pantheon of wrongology.) Although far from home, the knight is hardly in exile, and still less in disgrace. Unlike thejuiferrant, who is commanded to wander and does so aimlessly and in misery, the knight errant is on a quest: he wanders on purpose and with purpose, as well as with pleasure. He is driven, like all travelers, by curiosity, by the desire to experience something more of the world. It will be clear, I hope, that I am not invoking these archetypes to endorse their obvious prejudices. Instead, I'm interested in the way those prejudices lend meaning to our two main models of wrongness. As em­ bodied by the wandering Jew, erring is both loathsome and agonizing-a deviation from the true and the good, a public spectacle, and a private mis­ ery. This image of wrongness is disturbing, especially given the all-too­ frequent fate of the non-mythological Jews: abhorred, exiled, very nearly eradicated. Yet it far more closely resembles our everyday understanding of wrongness than do the virtue and heroism of the knight errant. If this bleak idea of error speaks to us, it is because we recognize in the wander­ ing Jew something of our own soul when we have erred. Sometimes, being wrong really does feel like being exiled: from our community, from our God, even-and perhaps most painfully-from our own best-known self. So we should acknowledge the figure of the wandering Jew as a good description of how it can feel to be wrong. But that doesn't mean we need to accept it as the final word on error's essential meaning and moral status. For one thing, it's hard to claim any fixed meaning or moral status for error when we have such radically competing ideas about it. In light of that, why cleave any more closely than necessary to the most disagreeable vision of wrongness around? We have, after all, a better alternative. In fact, the idea of erring embodied by the wandering knight is not just preferable to the one embodied by the wandering Jew. It is also, and somewhat remarkably, preferable to not erring at all. To err is to wander, and wandering is the way we discover the world; and, lost in thought, it is also the way we discover ourselves. Being right might be gratifying, but in the end it is static, a mere statement. Being wrong is hard and humbling, and sometimes even dan­ gerous, but in the end it is a journey, and a story. Who really wants to stay

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home and be right when you can don your armor, spring up on your steed and go forth to explore the world? True, you might get lost along the way, get stranded in a swamp, have a scare at the edge of a cliff; thieves might steal your gold, brigands might imprison you in a cave, sorcerers might turn you into a toad-but what of that? To fuck up is to find adventure: it is in that spirit that this book is written.

PA R T

II

TH E ORIGI N S OF ERROR

3.

O u r Senses

A lady once asked me if l believed in ghosts and apparitions. I answered with truth and simplicity, No, madam, I have seen far too many myself.

- SAMUEL TAYLOR C OLER I D GE

In April of 1 8 18, the Scottish explorer John Ross sailed west from London with two ships, thirty years of naval experience, and a mandate from the British Admiralty to find the Northwest Passage-the much sought-after water route across or around North America. The existence of such a route was an open question, but its potential economic significance was beyond dispute. Because virtually all commercial goods were transported by water at the time, faster transit between Europe and Asia would fuel a surge in global trade. Small wonder, then, that the quest for the Northwest Passage had become an international obsession-a spur to exploration, a screen for the projection of wild fantasies about the New World, and the crucible in

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which men's fortunes and reputations were made or broken. By the time the 1818 expedition set sail, explorers and fortune seekers had been looking for the route for more than 300 years. For the last seventy-five of those, the British government had offered a standing prize of £20,000-about $2 million in today's money-to anyone who could find it. A decade or so before Ross left port, Meriwether Lewis and William Clark's celebrated trek across the United States had shown that there were no navigable rivers connecting the two coasts, so subsequent explorers looked north, to the waters of the Canadian Arctic. This was a place Ross had never been. Although he had joined the navy at the age of nine, his northernmost service prior to 1 8 1 8 had been in Sweden; the rest had been in the English Channel, the West Indies, and the Mediterranean. It might seem odd to select a man with no regional experience to captain such a pivotal expedition, but as it happened, John Barrow, the subsecretary of the British Admiralty who sponsored the voyage, had little choice. Virtu­ ally no explorers had sailed to the Arctic from England since William Baffin, fully 200 years earlier, making Ross's journey the inaugural Arctic expedition of the modern Royal Navy. From Baffin's maps and reports, Ross knew of the eponymous Baffin Bay and of three large sounds-Smith, Jones, and Lancaster-in its north­ western reaches. Given wide latitude by Barrow to conduct the expedition as he saw fit, Ross determined to explore those sounds to see if any of them gave out onto the hoped for Northwest Passage. In July, after three months at sea, he and his crew reached Baffin Bay-something of a triumph itself, since Barrow, for one, had openly doubted its existence. After concluding that Smith Sound and Jones Sound were impassable, they turned their at­ tention to Lancaster, which Ross had considered the most promising of the three. When they arrived there at the end of August, however, the sound was socked in by thick fog, and there was nothing to do but wait. Finally, at three o'clock on the afternoon of August 3 1 , an officer knocked on Ross's cabin door to report that the skies were clearing, and the captain immedi­ ately headed for the deck. Shortly thereafter, the fog lifted completely and, Ross wrote in his account of the voyage:

OUR SENSES

49

I distinctly saw the land, round the bottom of the bay, forming a chain of mountains connected with those which extended along the north and south sides. This land appeared to be at the dis­ tance of eight leagues [about 27 miles] ; and Mr. Lewis, the master, and James Haig, leading man, being sent for, they took its bear­ ings, which were inserted in the log . . . . The mountains, which occupied the centre, in a north and south direction, were named Croker's Mountains, after the Secretary to the Admiralty.

So Lancaster "sound" was only an inlet. Instead of opening westward onto a waterway out of Baffin Bay and onward to the Pacific, it ended in Iand-a vast expanse of ice and high peaks. It also ended Ross's voyage to the Arctic. Disappointed, but having fulfilled the terms of his naval man­ date, the commander returned to England. But something odd had happened. Ross's second-in-command, one Wil­ liam Parry, had been following at a � istance in the other ship, and he hadn't seen the mountains that Ross claimed blocked the way out of Lancaster Sound. When he got home, he made this fact known to John Barrow. As the backer of the trip and England's leading champion of the quest for the Northwest Passage, Barrow naturally preferred the idea of the mountains not existing to the idea of their existing. Trusting Parry's word, he con­ cluded that the commander had been wrong. A cloud of mistrust and deri­ sion began to gather around Ross, even though, by most measures, he had achieved the extraordinary. Chief among his accomplishments was navigat­ ing a British ship through the treacherous waters of the eastern Arctic and returning it safely home. At the same time, he had verified William Baf­ fin's previously disputed travel report, opened up Baffin Bay for the British whaling industry, documented the first known encounter between West­ erners and the regional Inuit population, gathered important information about tides, ice, and magnetism, and brought back any number of biological and geological specimens. But in the face of the fervor over the Northwest Passage, none of that carried much weight. Ross's reputation was tarnished, and it was soon to tank. Less than a year after the 1 8 1 8 expedition returned,

SO

BEING WRONG

Barrow sent Parry back to Lancaster Sound for a second look. This time, Parry did see the Croker range-and then he sailed right through it. The mountains were a mirage. John Ross had fallen victim to one of the stranger and more fascinat­ ing optical phenomena on earth. Anyone who has been in a car on a hot day is familiar with the mirage in which a pool of water seems to cover the highway in the distance but disappears as you approach. This is called an inferior mirage, or sometimes a desert mirage, since the same phenomenon causes nonexistent oases to appear to travelers in hot, sandy lands. But very few of us are familiar with mirages of the kind Ross saw, because the con­ ditions necessary to produce them are usually found only near the earth's poles. This type of mirage is known as a superior (or arctic) mirage. Inferior mirages show us things that don't exist�puddles on the road or pools in the desert. But superior mirages show us things that do exist. The mountains that Ross saw were real. The trouble is, they weren't twenty-five miles west of him in Lancaster Sound. They were two hundred miles west of him, on a distant island in the Canadian Arctic. Needless to say, under normal circumstances, we don't see mountains from 200 miles away and conclude that they are nearby. In fact, barring optimal conditions, we don't see mountains from 200 miles away, period. But by bending light rays from beyond the horizon up toward us, superior mirages lift objects into our field of vision that are usually obscured by the curvature of the earth. Such mirages begin with a temperature inversion. Normally, air temperatures are warmest near the surface of the earth and start dropping as you go up. (Think about how much colder it is on top of a mountain than in the valley below.) But in a temperature inversion, this arrangement reverses. A cold layer of air close to the earth-say, directly above the polar land or sea-meets a higher, warmer layer of air created by atypical atmospheric conditions. This inverted situation dramatically increases the degree to which light can bend. In the Arctic or Antarctic, where surface air temperatures are extremely cold, light sometimes bends so much that the photons that eventually strike any available human retinas can be reflected from objects up to several hundred miles away. The result

OUR SENSES

51

The i l l u s o r y C ro k e r M o u nt a i n s , as d raw n by J o h n Ross in h i s trave l j o u rn a l .

is, in essence, another kind of false fire-a trick of the light that leads un­ wary travelers astray. Ross was by no means the first or last seafarer to be fooled by an Arctic mirage. The Celts, who sailed from the Norwegian Sea's Faroe Islands in the eighth century and made landfall on what is now Iceland, were prob­ ably tempted into their boats by mirages that made the distant land appear far closer than it was. Likewise, historians speculate that the Vikings ven­ tured to North America (where they landed sometime around AD 1000) after spotting a superior mirage of the mountains of Baffin Island from the coast of Greenland. As these examples suggest, superior mirages are particularly likely to consist of mountains and other- large land masses. But because such mirages can show us anything that actually exists, rather than the shimmering illusion of water that is the inferior mirage's only trick, their subject matter is, in theory, almost unlimited. Accordingly, sailors have also reported seeing arctic mirages of relatively small objects, including icebergs, pack ice, and-most hauntingly-other ships.'

* History's largest recorded mirage is of an entire continent. In 1906, the American explorer Robert Peary was exploring far northern Canada on foot when he looked out to sea and saw, at a distance he estimated to be 120 miles, a land mass that spanned so much of the horizon that he concluded that it must be a continent. The nomenclature of

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To get a sense o f just how compelling such mirages can be, consider the comparatively recent experience of the Canadian captain Robert Bar­ tlett. On July 1 7, 1939, while sailing between Greenland and Iceland, Bartlett suddenly spotted the coast of the latter country, looming so large that he could easily make out many familiar landmarks. Like John Ross, Bartlett estimated the apparent distance of the coast at twenty­ five or thirty miles away. But he knew its actual distance was more than ten times that, since his ship was positioned roughly 350 miles from the Icelandic coast. That he could see land at all is astonishing-akin to seeing the Washington Monument from Ohio. And yet, Bartlett wrote, "If I hadn't been sure of my position and had been bound for Reykjavik, I would have expected to arrive within a few hours. The contours of the land and the snow-covered summit of the Snaefells Jokull [glacier] showed up unbelievably near." Only 1 2 5 years' worth of improvements in navigational tools and geo­ graphic knowledge prevented Bartlett from making virtually the same mistake as Ross. Thanks to those advances in technology, including in­ formation technology, Bartlett was able to override his own judgment. His resources may have been better, but his senses were equally, spectacularly deceived.

polar exploration gets rather confusing at this point, because Peary (not to be confused with Parry, John Ross's second-in-command) named the place he saw Crocker Land (not to be confused with Ross's Croker Mountains). Peary reported the discovery upon his return to the United States, and, seven years later, one of his former lieutenants, Donald MacMillan, set forth to explore the new continent. MacMillan made camp in the Canadian Arctic, and, once the Polar Sea had frozen, set across it. After slogging almost 600 miles by foot and dogsled, he and his men spotted a vast terrain that per­ fectly matched Peary's description. But as they continued toward it, the land seemed to change, and when the sun dropped down in the night sky, it disappeared entirely. The men pressed on anyway, past the point where they should have reached the mysterious continent, but they never encountered land. Since, as we now know, no vast continent lurked a few hundred miles further on, this was not precisely an arctic mirage, but rather a fata morgana-an illusion of magnification and distortion. The explorers were actually seeing only the corrugated surface of the frozen sea itself, thrown radically out of proportion by the capricious polar light.

OUR SENSES

•

•

53

•

Of the very long list of reasons we can get things wrong, the most elemen­ tary of them all is that our senses fail us. Although these failures sometimes have grave consequences (just ask Captain Ross), we usually think of sen­ sory mistakes as relatively trivial. In fact, we often don't think of them as mistakes at all. And yet, in many respects, failures of perception capture the essential nature of error. There's a reason that James Sully, that early chronicler of wrongness, took Illusions as both the title of his book and the template for all other forms of error. The rest of us do this, too, albeit mostly without realizing it. When we discover that we have been wrong, we say that we were under an illusion, and when we no longer believe in something, we say that we are disillusioned. More generally, analogies to vision are ubiquitous in the way we think about knowledge and error. People who possess the truth are perceptive, insightful,

observant, illuminated, enlightened, and visionary; by contrast, the ignorant are in the dark. When we comprehend something, we say I see. And we say, too, that the scales have fallen from our eyes; that once we were blind, but now we see. This link between seeing and knowing is not just metaphorical. For the most part, we accept as true anything that we see with our own eyes, or reg­ ister with any of our other senses. We take it on faith that blue is blue, that hot is hot, that we are seeing a palm tree sway in the breeze because there is a breeze blowing and a palm tree growing. As I've already suggested, and as we'll see in more detail in the upcoming chapters, we are all prone to regarding the ideas in our own heads as direct reflections of reality, and this is particularly true in the domain of perception. Heat, palm trees, blueness, breeziness: we take these to be attributes of the world that our senses simply and passively absorb. If that were the case, however, it is unclear how our senses could ever deceive us-which, as we've just seen, they are eminently capable of doing. Moreover, they are capable of doing so under entirely normal circumstances, not just under exceptional ones like those John Ross experienced. Consider what happens when you step outside on a cloudless night. For the purpose

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" La n d i n g t h e Tre a su res, o r R e s u l t s of t h e P o l a r E x p e d i t i o n ! ! ! , " a

1819

cartoon by G e o r g e

C r u i k s h a n k r i d i c u l i n g t h e R o s s voya g e . T h e m a n o n t h e far l eft i s s ay i n g , " I t h i n k as how we have b e a r s , g u l l s , sava g e s , c h u m p wood, sto n e s , and p u p p i e s e n o u g h w i t h o u t g o i n g to t h e N o rth Po le f o r t h e m . " Ross a n d h i s c r e w a re d e p i cted w i t h o u t n o s e s , a refe rence to a n I n u it p ra c t i c e of p u l l i n g noses i n p l a ce of s h a k i n g h a n d s . ( T h e m a n c a r r y i n g t h e rear e n d of t h e p o l a r b e a r i s say i n g , " I t ' s a good t h i n g I ' ve l o s t my n o s e . " )

of this thought experiment, imagine that you step outside not in Chicago or Houston, but in someplace truly dark: the Himalayas, say, or Patagonia, or the north rim of the Grand Canyon. If you look up in such a place, you will observe that the sky above you is vast and vaulted, its darkness pulled taut from horizon to horizon and perforated by innumerable stars. Stand there long enough and you'll see this whole vault turning overhead, like the slowest of tumblers in the most mysterious of locks. Stand there even longer and it will dawn on you that your own position in this spectacle is curiously central. The apex of the heavens is directly above you. And the land you are standing on-land that unlike the firmament is quite flat, and unlike the stars is quite stationary-stretches out in all directions from a midpoint that is you. Occasional bad weather and a hundred-odd years of artificial illumina­ tion aside, this is the view that we as a species have been looking at for 73 million nighttimes. It is also, of course, an illusion: almost everything we see and feel out there on our imaginary Patagonian porch is misleading. The sky is neither vaulted nor revolving around us, the land is neither flat nor stationary, and, sad to say, we ourselves are not the center of the cosmos.

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Not only are these things wrong, they are canonically wrong. They are to the intellect what the Titanic is to the ego: a permanent puncture wound, a reminder of the sheer scope at which we can err. What is strange, and not a little disconcerting, is that we can commit such fundamental mistakes by doing nothing more than stepping outside and looking up. No byzantine theorizing was necessary to arrive at the notion that the stars move and we do not. (In fact, it's the byzantine theorizing that is gradually nudging us toward a more accurate understanding of the universe.) We simply saw the former, and felt the latter. The fallibility of perception was a thorn in the side of early philoso­ phers, because most of them took the senses to be the main source of our knowledge about the world. This raised an obvious question: if we can't trust our senses, how can we trust our knowledge? One early and clever solution to this problem was to deny that there was a problem. That was the fix favored by Protagoras, the leader of a group of philosophers known as the Sophists, who held forth in ancient Greece around the fifth century BC. Protagoras agreed that the senses were the source of all knowledge, but he categorically denied that they could be wrong. You might imagine that this conviction would lead to a kind of absolute realism: the world is precisely as we perceive it. But that only works if we all perceive the world exactly the same way. Since we don't, Protagoras wound up espousing radi­ cal relativism instead. To borrow an example from Plato (whose extensive rebuttal of the Sophists is the chief reason we know what they believed): if a breeze is blowing and I think it is balmy and you think it is chilly, then what temperature is it really? Protagoras would say it is warm to me and cold to you, and that's that. There is no reality "out there" for the senses to perceive or misperceive; the information provided by our senses is real­ ity. And if my senses happen to contradict yours-well, then our realities must differ. In matters of perception, Protagoras argued, everyone was always right. Protagoras deserves recognition for being the first philosopher in West­ ern history to explicitly address the problem of error, if only by denying its existence. For most of us, though, his position on perception is intrinsi­ cally unsatisfying (much as relativism more generally can seem frustrat-

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ingly flaccid in the face of certain hard truths about the world). Plato, for one, thought it was nonsense. He noted that even a breeze must have its own internal essence, quite apart from whoever it blows on, and essentially advised Protagoras to get a thermometer. But Plato also rejected the whole notion that our senses are the original source of knowledge. Since, as I mentioned earlier, he thought our primordial souls were at one with the universe, he believed that we come to know the basic truths about the world through a form of memory. Other philosophers agreed with Protagoras that the senses are a crucial conduit of information, but, unlike him, they acknowledged that perception can fail. This seems like a reasonable posi­ tion, and one we are likely to share, but it raises two related and thorny questions. First, how exactly do our senses go about acquiring information about the world? And second, how can we determine when that informa­ tion is accurate and when it is not? Early philosophers regarded the first question as, essentially, a spatial­ relations problem. The world is outside us; our senses are within us. How, then, do the two come together so that we can know something? Obviously our senses can't go forth and drag an actual chunk of the world back to their internal lair, intact and as is, for the benefit of the rest of the brain. But­ outside of dreams, hallucinations, and madness-most perceptions aren't produced solely by our minds either. Instead, our senses must somehow bridge the gap I described in Chapter One: the rift between our own minds and everything else. One way to understand how they do this is to think of sensing as two different (although not normally separable) operations. The first is sensation, in which our nervous system responds to a piece of information from our environment. The second is perception, in which we process that information and make it meaningful. Perception, in other words, is the interpretation of sensation. Interpretation implies wiggle room-space to deviate from a literal reading, whether of a book or of the world. As that suggests, this model of perception (unlike the one in which our senses just passively reflect our surroundings) has no trouble accommodating the problem of error. Every step in the interpretative process represents a point of potential divergence

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between our minds and the world-a breach where mistakes can sneak in. This model also answers the second question I asked about perception: How can we determine when it is accurate and when it is not? Unfortu­ nately, the answer is that we cannot. Since we generally have no access to the objects of our sensory impressions other than through our senses, we have no independent means of verifying their accuracy. True, we can seek confirmation from other people's senses, but there's no way to be sure that theirs aren't failing them in the same way. As a result, there is no guarantee that we aren't as wrong about a basic perception right now as most people were for most of history about the nature of the night sky. This isn't to say that every act of interpretation is an act of misinterpre­ tation. In perception, as in so many things in life, departing from literalism often serves us uncommonly well-serves, even, a deeper truth. Consider a mundane visual phenomenon: when objects recede into the distance, they appear to get smaller. If we had sensation without interpretation, we would assume that those objects were actually shrinking, or perhaps that we were growing-either way, a bewildering, Alice-in-Wonderland-esque conclu­ sion. Instead, we are able to preserve what is known as size constancy by au­ tomatically recalibrating scale in accordance with distance. We know that planes don't get smaller after they take off, and that the buildings in our rearview mirror don't sink into the earth as we drive away. For a different example of the utility of interpretation, consider your blind spot-the literal one, I mean. The blind spot is that part of the eye where the optic nerve passes through the retina, preventing any visual pro­ cessing from taking place. If perception were just unembellished sensation, we would experience a chronic lacuna where this nerve interrupts our visual field. But we do not, because our brain automatically corrects the problem through a process known as coherencing. If the blind spot is surrounded by blue sky, we will "see" blue sky there as well; if it is surrounded by Times Square, we will "see" tourists and taxis. These, then, are instances-just two of many-in which the interpretative processes of perception sharpen rather than distort our picture of the world. No matter what these processes do, though, one thing remains the

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same: we have no idea that they are doing it. The mechanisms that form our perceptions operate almost entirely below the level of conscious aware­ ness; ironically, we cannot sense how we sense. And here another bit of meta-wrongness arises. Because we can't perceive these processes in action, and thereby take note of the places where error could enter the picture, we feel that we cannot be wrong. Or, more precisely, we cannot feel that we could be wrong. Our obliviousness to the act of interpretation leaves us insensitive-literally-to the possibility of error. And that is how you and I and everybody else in the world occasionally winds up in (you will pardon the expression) Captain John Ross's boat.

I can't whisk you off to the Arctic to see a superior mirage, but I can easily get you to think you see something you don't. Look:

This is one of my favorite optical illusions, not because it is particu­ larly dazzling but because it is particularly maddening. The trick is that the square labeled A and the square labeled B are identical shades of gray. No, really. In fact, if you think of this image as a checkerboard, then all the "white" squares that fall within the shadow of the cylinder (like B) are the same color as all the "black" squares that fall outside the shadow (like A). You don't believe me, for the very good reason that you do believe your eyes, and your eyes are telling you that these squares look completely dif­ ferent. Actually, it's not your eyes that are telling you this; it's a handful of

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interpretative processes of the kind I just described. These processes are in play because, when it comes to determining the color of objects around us, our visual system can't afford to be too literal. If it were, it would do noth­ ing but measure the wavelength of light reflecting off a given object. In that case, as the psychologist Steven Pinker has pointed out, we would think that a lump of coal sitting in bright sunlight was white, and that a lump of snow inside a dark house was black. Instead, we're able to correct for the presence of light and shadow so that the coal still appears fundamentally black and the snow still appears fundamentally white. One way we do this is through local contrast. In nature, if something is lighter than its immediate surroundings, it's probably light in an absolute sense, rather than just because of the way the sun is or isn't striking it. That's one reason why, in this illusion, we read Square B (which is lighter than the dark checks around it) as light, period. The same phenomenon ap­ plies in reverse, so that we read Square A (which is darker than the squares around it) as dark, period. This interpretation is reinforced by several other interpretative processes, including the fact that we automatically adjust for cast shadows, mentally lightening whatever objects they fall on-in this case, Square B . The net effect o f these visual "corrections" i s a n illusion that i s abso­ lutely unshakeable. When I first saw it, I was so incredulous that I finally took a pair of scissors and cut the picture apart-whereupon, lo and behold, the A and B squares became indistinguishable from each other. In an effort to discourage you from mutilating this book, I offer a second image:

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Not quite a s convincing as slicing and dicing, perhaps, but a good start. (If you must cut it apart yourself to be persuaded, the original image-and a lot of other fun stuff-is available on the website of its creator, Edward Adelson, a professor of vision science at MIT.) What makes this illusion both irksome and fascinating is that knowing how it works does not prevent it from working. No matter how many times you read the above explanation (or how many copies of the image you cut to pieces), the two shades of gray will still look strikingly different to you. Likewise, Robert Bartlett's knowledge that he was 350 miles from Iceland could keep him from getting lost, but it was powerless to prevent him from seeing the Icelandic coast looming up before him. This is one of the defin­ ing features of illusions: they are robust, meaning that our eyes fall for them even when our higher cognitive functions are aware that we are being de­ ceived. A second defining feature is that they are consistent: we misperceive them every time we come across them. Finally, they are universal: all of us misperceive them in precisely the same way: These characteristics make sense when you recall that illusions are the product of unconscious and universal perceptual processes. But here's the important part: those same processes-the ones that cause us to screw up when we encounter illusions-serve us extremely well in everyday life. This helps explain why a scientist at one of the most respected academic institutions in the world is paid to sit around developing optical illusions.

*

I'm focusing here on universal perceptual mistakes, but our senses can also err in

individual, idiosyncratic ways. One person who thought seriously about this was the eighteenth-century German philosopher Immanuel Kant. Most of the ancient philoso­ phers who studied perception (Plato and Protagoras, et al.) were concerned primarily with physical operations: with how the mechanisms of touch, taste, vision, olfaction, and audition interact with the properties of the world. But Kant was interested primar­ ily in psychological processes, and he argued that our beliefs, desires, thoughts, and feelings also influence the way we perceive our environment. This contribution to the philosophy of perception was crucial, because it explained how we could get not just universal errors like mirages, but also individual sensory mistakes-how two people who see or hear the same thing can walk away with two entirely different impressions of it. Protagoras explained this by saying that reality varied. Kant said no, it is people who vary, right down to our ways of perceiving the world.

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The real object of study is not the illusions themselves but the processes that give rise to them-processes that would be far harder to study (or even know about) if they didn't occasionally produce surprising and erro­ neous results. Moreover, because illusions trick all of us (rather than, say, only stroke victims or only children), they help us understand how visual perception operates in a healthy, mature brain. In studying illusions, sci­ entists aren't learning how our visual system fails. They are learning how it works. This point merits some emphasis: being wrong is often a side effect of a system that is functioning exactly right. Remember size constancy, our automatic ability to recalibrate scale according to distance? This is a handy trick 99.99 percent of the time. The other 0.01 percent occurs when, say, you find yourself on a ship in the Arctic looking at very large mountains, which you therefore conclude are very nearby. In this case (and in many others, as we'll see), mistakes arise when a basically reliable system leads us astray. That's part of what makes optical illusions, and errors more gener­ ally, so unforeseeable and surprising: not only do they arise from processes we can't feel, they arise from processes that, under normal circumstances, work to our advantage. Illusions, then, are the misleading outcomes of normal (and nor� ally beneficial) perceptual processes. This isn't just true of the visual kind. If you've ever seen a ventriloquist, you've been duped by another of these processes-in this case, one that automatically integrates information from your visual and auditory systems. (Thus if you hear speech and see a mov­ ing mouth, you'll register the speech as coming from that mouth-even if it belongs to a three-foot tall wooden puppet.) Other auditory illusions are even more common. If you have either a cell phone or a baby, you are familiar with the experience of hearing your particular phone ringing, or your particular baby crying, when in fact it is (for once) quiet. Then there are tactile illusions, of which by far the most famous is that of the phantom limb: the amputee's persistent, unshakable sense of experiencing sensation in his or her missing body part. Those of us fortunate enough to have all our limbs sometimes experience a similar if sillier feeling known as-no joke-the phantom hat. In this illusion, we continue to feel the presence of

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a tightly worn accessory, bandage, or article of clothing for some time after it has been removed: As this brief catalogue makes clear, and as I suggested earlier, most sen­ sory illusions are not terribly important. Unless you are a vision scientist or an amputee or Captain John Ross, they have pretty much the status of par­ lor tricks. Occasionally, though, the quirks of our perceptual system leave us vulnerable to more serious errors. Take, for instance, a phenomenon known as inattentional blindness. There is a rather amazing experiment­ which I'm about to ruin for you-in which subjects are shown a video of a group of people playing a fast-paced ball game and are asked to count how many times the ball is passed back and forth. At some point during the video, a gorilla (more precisely, a person in a gorilla costume) wanders into the middle of the group of players, stands around for a bit, beats its chest a few times, and then wanders off again. Here's the amazing part: between 33 and 50 percent of subjects don't see this happen. Perhaps this bears repeat­ ing: one-third to one-half of people instructed to pay close attention to a video fail to see a gorilla beating its chest in the middle of it. This is inattentional blindness in action. It turns out that when we ask people to look for something specific, they develop a startling inability to see things in general. This cognitive peculiarity has been recorded since at least the 1970s, but you have to hand it to the designers of this study­ the psychologists Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris-for going well beyond what less inspired thinkers might have imagined was the logical extreme in order to demonstrate its potency. (The video is available on the website of the Visual Cognition Lab of the University of Illinois. But be warned: having read this paragraph, you will not fail to see the gorilla. It's as if, rather than asking you to count the number of basketball passes, I've asked you to count the number of great apes. However, close to half your friends can still be duped.)

•

The phantom limb and the phantom hat illustrate an important point, which is that

we react to and interpret not just information from the outside world, but from our in­ terior world as well. And sometimes-as in these phantom sensations-we misinterpret it. We will see another, even more dramatic example of this in the next chapter.

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Like other automatic perceptual processes, inattentional blindness is generally quite useful. Without it, we wouldn't be able to tune out the noise in our environment and focus on the task at hand. But when this process works against us, the consequences can be grave. In 1972 , Eastern Airlines Flight 401 was preparing to land in Miami when a light on the control panel failed to illuminate. The three crewmembers in the cockpit became so focused on the problem that they didn't notice that the plane was con­ tinuing its descent on autopilot. The flight crashed in the Everglades, kill­ ing a hundred people. Analysis of the cockpit voice recorder showed that none of the crew noticed the impending crisis until just seconds before the crash. Similarly, inattentional blindness is thought to be a culprit in many car accidents, especially those involving pedestrians and cyclists-who, no matter how visible they make themselves, are less likely to be anticipated by drivers, and thus less. likely to be seen. On a less frightening but still frustrating note, inattentional blindness is commonly exploited by thieves who work in pairs or groups to create a distraction, thereby drawing their target's attention away from what would otherwise be the obvious pilfering of his or her possessions. This deliberate exploitation of systemic perceptual glitches has a long and occasionally disreputable history, especially within religion and politics. One early account of the use of illusions for such purposes comes from David Brewster, a Scottish polymath and the author of the 1833 Letters on Natural

.\1agic. Brewster was interested in "the means by which [ancient govern­ ments] maintained their influence over the human mind-of the assistance which they derived from the arts and the sciences, and from a knowledge of the powers and phenomena of nature." If you've ever wondered about the origins of the phrase "smoke and mirrors," Brewster provides a detailed description of how to use pieces of concave silver to throw human images against a background of smoke, thereby making gods (or rulers, or enemies) seem to dance and writhe in the center of a fire. His catalog of auditory illusions includes, among others, explanations of the mechanisms behind "the golden virgins whose ravishing voices resounded through the temple of Delphos; the stone from the river Pactolus, whose trumpet notes scared the robber from the treasure which it guarded; the speaking head which

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uttered its oracular responses at Lesbos; and the vocal statue of Memnon, which began at the break of day to accost the rising sun." As these examples suggest, dominion over perception is power. This is not a truth limited to ancient times. In fact, the most crystalline example of it might come from Brewster's own era, in the form of a footnote to the history of colonial Africa. In the mid-nineteenth century, France was ex­ periencing difficulty in Algeria. The region's Islamic holy men were using their status-and supposedly their supernatural powers-to encourage re­ sistance to colonial rule, and the resulting rebellion was proving difficult to quell. Deciding to fight fire with fire, Napoleon III turned to one Jean Eugene Robert-Houdin, an erstwhile watchmaker who had become an ex­ traordinarily inventive and convincing illusionist. (Today Robert-Houdin is recognized as the father of modern magic, an honor that comes complete with a kind of figurative primogeniture. In 1 890, an aspiring young magi­ cian named Ehrich Weiss, seeking to pay homage to his hero, changed his name to Houdini.) Napoleon sent Robert-Houdin to Algeria with instruc­ tions to out-holy the holy men, and so he did. Wielding the full panoply of contemporary illusions-plucking cannon balls from hats, catching bullets between his teeth, causing perfectly incarnate chieftains to vanish without a trace-the magician convinced his audience that the more powerful gods were on the side of the empire, and that the French, accordingly, were not to be trifled with: Our perceptual glitches, then, can leave us vulnerable to exploitation, whether by politicians or pickpockets. They can make us dangerous unto ourselves and others, as in the crash of Eastern Airlines Flight 401 . They ·

can be disruptive, whether slightly (as when we realize that our eyes are misprocessing an image of a checkerboard) or massively (as when we dis­ cover that the sun does not revolve around the earth). They can be con* Robert-Houdin's work in Algeria is essentially an antecedent to modern military psy­ chological operations, or psy-ops. Not all psy-ops involve the manipulation of percep­ tion, but many do. The Iraq War provides (at least) two memorable examples: the highly choreographed toppling of the statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad, and the much­ publicized distortion and dramatization of the "saving" of Private Jessica Lynch.

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sequential (as when an imaginary mountain chain scuttles your career) or trivial (as when a puddle on the road evanesces as you approach). And they can be pleasurable, as when we gape at optical illusions or flock to magic shows. Dangerous, disruptive, consequential, trivial, pleasurable: as tangential to error as they initially seem, perceptual failures turn out to showcase vir­ tually the entire practical and emotional range of our mistakes. That's one reason why I claimed earlier that they are the paradigmatic form of wrong­ ness. But another and more important reason is this: illusions teach us how to think about error. Intellectually, they show us how even the most con­ vincing vision of reality can diverge from reality itself, and how cognitive processes that we can't detect-and that typically serve us quite well-leave us vulnerable to mistakes. Emotionally, illusions are a gateway drug to hu­ mility. If we have trouble acknowledging our own errors and forgiving those of others, at least we can begin by contemplating the kind of mistakes to which we all succumb. Illusions make this possible, but they also make it palatable. In defiance of the pessimistic model of error-which can't account for illusions, and therefore claims that they don't count-we experience these sensory errors as fun, and pleasurable, and just about endlessly fascinating. This fascina­ tion begins very young (optical illusions, like knock-knock jokes, are a particular passion of elementary school kids) and doesn't appear to dimin­ ish with age. In other words, illusions are not just universally experienced. They are universally loved. This attraction to illusions upends our conventional relationship to wrongness. We are usually happiest when we think that we understand and have mastery over our environment. Yet with illusions such as mi­ rages, we take pleasure in the ability of the world to outfox us, to remind us that its bag of tricks is not yet empty. We usually like to be right. Yet in illusions such as Edward Adelson's checkerboard (where we can neither see the image correctly nor fathom how we could be seeing it wrong), we experience an agreeable astonishment that there was room for error after all. We usually dislike the experience of being stuck between two

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conflicting theories. Yet in another class of illusions-including the fa­ mous vases/faces and old woman/young woman images"-our pleasure lies precisely in being able to toggle back and forth between two differ­ ent and equally convincing visions of reality. Finally, we usually do not care to dwell on our mistakes after they happen, even if it would behoove us to do so. Yet illusions command our attention and inspire us to try to understand them-and to understand, too, the workings and failings of our own minds. Granted, it is easy, at least comparatively, to find pleasure in error when there's nothing at stake. But that can't be the whole story, since all of us have been known to throw tantrums over totally trivial mistakes. What makes illusions different is that, for the most part, we enter into them by consent. We might not know exactly how we are going to err, but we know that the error is coming, and we say yes to the experience anyway. In a sense, much the same thing could be said of life in general. We can't know where our next error lurks or what form it will take, but we can be very sure that it is waiting for us. With illusions, we look forward to this en­ counter, since whatever minor price we pay in pride is handily outweighed by curiosity at first and by pleasure afterward. The same will not always be true as we venture past these simple perceptual failures to more complex and consequential mistakes. But nor is the willing embrace of error always beyond us. In fact, this might be the most important thing illusions can teach us: that it is possible, at least some of the time, to find in being wrong a deeper satisfaction than we would have found in being right.

* Both of these illusions feature a single image that can be interpreted in two different ways. In the first, focusing on the (white) foreground reveals a vase, while focusing on the (black) background reveals two faces; in the second, focusing on certain details reveals the profile of a beautiful young woman, while focusing on others reveals a dis­ tinctly less attractive older woman. I've reproduced both illusions in the endnotes.

4.

O u r M i n d s , Pa rt O n e : K n ow i n g , N ot K n ow i n g , a n d M a k i n g I t U p

"I know" seems to describe a state of affairs which

guarantees what is known, guarantees it as a fact. One always forgets the expression, "I thought I knew." - L U D W I G WI T T G E N S T E I N , ON CER TA INTY

In 1992 , a forty-six-year-old woman whom I'll call Hannah underwent a neurological examination at a hospital in Vienna, Austria. The neurologist, Georg Goldenberg, began by asking Hannah to describe his own face. It was an odd question, but Hannah complied. The doctor had short hair and was clean shaven, she said; he wasn't wearing glasses, and he looked like he had a bit of a tan. Goldenberg next asked Hannah about an object in front of her. It was a notebook, she answered, like the kind schoolchildren use, with a brown cover and some writing in Latin script that she couldn't quite make out. And where exactly was the book located, the doctor asked her. He

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was holding it up in his left hand, Hannah replied, at just about eye level. The trouble was this: Goldenberg's face was concealed behind a screen, the object in front of his patient was a comb, and before asking about its location, he'd hidden it beneath the table in front of him. Hannah was blind. One month earlier, she had suffered a stroke that destroyed virtually her entire visual cortex and left her all but unable to move, owing to loss of muscle coordination and chronic, epilepsy-like contractions, especially on the left side of her body. All that was bad enough. But Hannah was also left with a rarer and stranger problem: she didn't know that she was blind. To be blind without realizing our blindness is, figuratively, the situa­ tion of all of us when we are in error. As a literal predicament, however, it is all but impossible to fathom. It is weird enough to see a mountain when there is no mountain, as Captain John Ross did. But it is really weird to see a mountain when you cannot see. And yet, this blind-to-our-own-blindness condition exists. It is called Anton's Syndrome, and it belongs to a group of similar neurological problems collectively known as anosognosia, or the denial of disease. The most common form of anosognosia-far more com­ mon than Anton's Syndrome, although equally hard to imagine-is the denial of paralysis. Like denial of blindness, denial of paralysis typically (although not exclusively) occurs in stroke victims. Just as Hannah unhesi­ tatingly described people and objects she couldn't see, these patients will confidently tell their doctors or family members that of course they are able to move-or that they just did move, or even that they are currently doing so. One illustrious (and illustrative) victim of this strange syndrome, the late Supreme Court Justice William Douglas, claimed that he had no physical problems and cheerfully invited a reporter covering his stroke to join him for a hike. Anton's Syndrome and denial of paralysis are, to put it mildly, bizarre. There are plenty of physical conditions that can afflict us without our knowl­ edge: heart disease, cancer, autoimmune disorders-all the terrible sleeper cells of the body. But blindness and paralysis are not normally among them. Whether or not we can see, whether or not we can move: this kind of in­ timate knowledge of our own body isn't usually subject to uncertainty, let alone error. In fact, it doesn't even sound quite right to describe these things

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as knowledge of our body. Noticing that we have a sore throat or recog­ nizing that our knees aren't quite as reliable as they used to be are clearly instances of bodily knowledge. But sore throats and bum knees are pretty much only about our bodies. They don't bear very deeply on our sense of who we are, whereas the abilities to see and to move definitely do. Moreover, these abilities bear on the most basic kind of selfhood there is-not the complex, striated, narrative identity we build up over time, but the one we have from birth: the unspoken but profoundly central sense that we are this kind of being, with this kind of relationship to the world. In a sense, then, people with anosognosia are as wrong as it is possible to be. Other errors might be more sweeping in their consequences or more emotionally devastating: being wrong about your family history, say, or committing wholeheartedly to a theology, ideology, or person you later wholeheartedly reject. But no other error requires us to concede quite so much ground to the sheer possibility of being wrong. If mistakes arise from the gap between our inner picture of the world and the world as it really is, anosognosia shows us that this gap never fully closes, even when we can least fathom its existence. It is all but impossible to imagine that, for instance, my belief that I'm moving my arm could be at odds with what my arm is actually doing. There seems to be no room for doubt, no plausible way I could be wrong. Indeed, we use our certainty about our own bodies to emphasize the depths of our other convictions: we say that we know some­ thing like the back of our hands, or that it's as plain as the nose on our face. Yet neurologists suspect that precisely what goes awry in denial of paralysis and Anton's syndrome is that the brain mistakes an idea in the mind (in the former case, thinking about moving a limb; in the latter, remember­ ing or imagining a visual landscape) for a feature of the real world. What anosognosia shows us, then, is that wrongness knows no limits-that there is no form of knowledge, however central or unassailable it may seem, that cannot, under certain circumstances, fail us. This fallibility of knowledge is gravely disappointing, because we re­ ally, really love to know things. One of my nieces, who is not yet eighteen months old, recently uttered her first sentence. It was "I know." To have such scanty experience of the world and so much implacable assurance is

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pretty impressive-but my niece, a s much a s I adore her, is not exceptional in this regard. From the time we learn to talk until death finally silences us, we all toss around claims to knowledge with profligate enthusiasm. We know, or think we know, innumerable things, and we enjoy the feeling of mastery and confidence our knowledge gives us. Unfortunately, as we just saw, this knowledge is always at risk of failing. Moreover (as we'll see next) the barometer we use to determine whether we do or don't know something is deeply, unfixably flawed. By contrast­ although not reassuringly-our capacity to ignore the fact that we don't know things works wonderfully. In sum: we love to know things, but ulti­ mately we can't know for sure that we know them; we are bad at recognizing when we don't know something; and we are very, very good at making stuff up. All this serves to render the category of "knowledge" unreliable-so much so that this chapter exists largely to convince you to abandon it (if only temporarily, for the purpose of understanding wrongness) in favor of the category of belief. We'll look at that category more closely in the next chapter, but for now, suffice it to say that it includes just about every idea you have about the world-whether or not you know you have it, and whether or not it is true. For several millennia, philosophers have tried to identify criteria by which some of those beliefs could be elevated into the loftier category of knowledge: things we can reasonably claim to know beyond a shadow of a doubt. The most enduring suggestion was offered by Plato, who defined knowledge as "justified true belief." To his mind, you could only claim to know something if A) it was true; and B) you could come up with a good explanation for why it was true. That ruled out false beliefs with strong explanations (such as the claim that the sun revolved around the earth), as well as true beliefs with weak explanation (such as my claim that I'm hold­ ing the winning raffle ticket-which it turns out that I am-because "I can feel it in my bones"). Plato's definition kicked off 2 , 500 years of debates about the nature of knowledge. The earliest objection to it came from the Skeptics, who argued that no beliefs are verifiably true, and that therefore (my niece notwith­ standing) we can't rightly claim to know anything. Other philosophers, by

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contrast, feel that we can claim to know some things, but argue that Plato didn't go far enough in specifying which ones. For these thinkers, knowl­ edge is belief with a bunch of backup: belief that is not only justified and true, but also necessarily true, impossible to disprove, arrived at in a certain fashion, and so forth. For my purposes, there are two important things to be learned from these debates. The first is that knowledge is conventionally viewed as belief plus a bunch of credentials, an idea we'll return to at the end of this chapter. The second is that even if you happen to be a professional philosopher, it is very difficult to figure out what, if anything, you can rightly claim to know. This isn't an issue that particularly troubles the rest of us, not because we are such brilliant natural philosophers but because the experience of know­ ing something seems relatively straightforward. For most of us, whether or not we know a particular fact isn't something we think about; it is some­ thing we feel. As William James wrote, "Of some things we feel that we are certain: we know, and we know that we do know. There is something that gives a click inside of us, a bell that strikes twelve, when the hands of our mental clock have swept the dial and meet over the meridian hour." James did not mean this as a compliment. The feeling of knowing some­ thing is incredibly convincing and inordinately satisfying, but it is not a very good way to gauge the accuracy of our knowledge. Blind Hannah presumably "knew" that she could see, but we know that she was wrong. That's the problem with the feeling of knowing: it fills us with the convic­ tion of rightness whether we're right or not. Perhaps the most vivid way to see this problem in action is within the domain of memory, where all of us have experienced the sensation of a powerful inner certainty, and where the feeling of knowing has received some of the most extensive attention. In this domain, the "knowledge" in question is knowledge of what happened in the past-except when it turns out not to be knowledge at all.

On December 7, 1941 , a thirteen-year-old boy named Ulric Neisser was listening to the radio when he learned that the Japanese had just attacked Pearl Harbor. The experience made a huge impression on the child. For

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decades to come, he would carry around the memory of a radio announcer interrupting the baseball game he'd been listening to with a bulletin about the bombing. In its vividness, intensity, and longevity, Neisser's recollection was typi­ cal of how our minds react to unusually shocking events. Think about your own memories of a different national tragedy-the terrorist attacks of Sep­ tember 1 1 , 2001 . If you are American, I will bet my bank account that you know what you were doing that day: how you learned the news, where you were at the time, how you felt, who you talked to, what you thought about what had happened. I will further bet that those memories are unusually vivid and detailed (certainly far more so than your memories of, say, Sep­ tember 5, 2001 , which probably don't even exist), and that you have a high degree of confidence in their accuracy. But-one last wager-I will also bet that, to one degree or another, you're wrong. Neisser certainly was. Forty years after the fact, something suddenly dawned on him: professional base­ ball isn't played in December. By then, as fate would have it, the thirteen-year-old baseball fan had become a psychology professor at Emory University, and, in 1989, he pub­ lished a groundbreaking study on memory failures like the one he had ex­ perienced. Before Neisser's work, the going theory was that we are able to remember surprising and traumatic events far more accurately than we can recall their more mundane counterparts-a theory that accords with how it feels to remember them. Such recollections are called "flashbulb memo­ ries," since they seem to have the perfect fidelity of photography. Psycholo­ gists speculated that these memories stemmed from unique evolutionary imperatives and were formed through different neurological processes than we use to recall everyday life. But while the unusual vividness and specific­ ity of such memories were well established (thanks largely to a 1977 study of people's recollections of the assassination of John F. Kennedy), no one had ever put their accuracy to the test. National tragedy is good to memory researchers. In 1986, when the space shuttle Challenger exploded, Neisser saw an opportunity to remedy this gap in the memory literature, and to find out whether his own mis­ taken Pearl Harbor recollection was an anomaly. He surveyed his students

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about their memories of the disaster the day after it happened, and then again three years later. The results spelled the end of conventional flash­ bulb memory theory. Less than 7 percent of the second reports matched the initial ones, 50 percent were wrong in two-thirds of their assertions, and 2 5 percent were wrong in every major detail. Subsequent work by other researchers only confirmed the conclusion. Our flashbulb memories might remain stunningly vivid, but research suggests that their accuracy erodes over time at the same rate as our everyday recollections-a decline so pre­ cise and predictable that it can be plotted on a graph in what is known, evocatively, as the Ebbinghaus curve of forgetting. (For the record, a group of cognitive scientists and psychologists working together as the 9/1 1 Mem­ ory Consortium repeated and expanded on Neisser's study after September 1 1 , with roughly the same results.) There is a vast body of literature, most of it in neuroscience and psy­ chology, about how our memories come to be riddled with errors. But what interests me is why these wrong memories continue to feel so right-or, put differently, why they produce such a strong feeling of knowing. The subjects in the 1977 study of the Kennedy assassination described their recollections of that event as "burned on their brain," and as vivid "as if it happened yesterday." More strikingly, when Neisser showed one of his sub­ jects her initial report of the Challenger disaster-a report that didn't match her memory of it-she responded by saying, "I know that's my handwriting, but I couldn't possibly have written that." Likewise, despite everything you just read, you probably remain powerfully confident in your memories of September 1 1 . You might be wrong, but you are not alone. None of us capture our memories in perfect, strobe-like detail, but almost all of us believe in them with blinding conviction. This conviction is most pronounced with respect to flashbulb memories, but it isn't limited to them: Even with comparaAs that suggests, memories don't need to be traumatic to induce the feeling of know­ ing. In fact, they don't even need to be real. That's the startling and provocative conclu­ •

sion of false memory studies. In these studies, subjects are convinced, over a series of meetings with a psychologist, and with the consent and participation of their families, that they experienced something as a child which they did not: getting lost in a store,

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tively trivial matters, we believe i n our recollections with touching sincer­ ity and defend them with astounding tenacity. We squabble with our sister over who shrank the sweater back in 1984, we disagree with our lover of fifteen years about the location of our third date, and we simply can't let it go. We might drop the subject, but-barring clear-cut evidence against us-we retain the deep inner certainty that we are right. How can we square this feeling of rightness with the very real possibil­ ity that we are wrong? This is a question that haunts all of wrongology, not just errors of memory. The problem is suggested by the very phrase "the feeling of knowing." In life, as in language, we begin with a psychologi­ cal state (the "feeling" part) and end up with a claim about the truth (the "knowing" part). In other words, we feel that we are right because we feel that we are right: we take our own certainty as an indicator of accuracy. This isn't completely foolish of us, since studies show that there is some cor­ relation between confidence and correctness. But it isn't completely fool­ proof, either. As the case of flashbulb memories makes clear, our certainty reflects the existence of a particularly vivid inner picture. But nothing in life guarantees that this picture reflects the real state of affairs. This reliance on a vivid inner picture helps explain why memories are particularly apt to trigger the feeling of knowing. Two thousand years ago,

say, or taking a hot-air balloon ride. Overall, about one in four subjects will accept a false memory. (Among young children, the figure is significantly higher, ranging from 30 to 60 percent.) For these participants, the implante d "memories" become largely indistinguishable from reality-so much so that it can be difficult to convince them later that the event never happened. One fourteen-year-old subject named Chris, who was led to believe that he had gotten lost in a shopping mall as a child, responded to the debriefing of the experiment with incredulity. "I thought I remembered being lost . . . and looking around for you guys. I do remember that," he insisted. "And then crying, and Mom coming up and saying 'Where were you? Don't you-don't you ever do that again.' " Although the event was fabricated, when Chris searched his mind, he somehow encountered the affirmative feeling that he had been lost. In a sense, these false memo­ ries are no different from errors in flashbulb memories; Ulric Neisser "remembered" something that hadn't happened to him, too. But most of us find them more disturbing, since they suggest just how baseless the feeling of knowing can be-and, accordingly, how radically our memories can be manipulated, deliberately or otherwise.

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Plato proposed a model of how memory works that is both radically out­ dated and remarkably timeless. Imagine, he suggested, that you have in your mind a wax tablet-"a gift of Memory, the mother of the Muses." Ev­ erything you experience, from your own thoughts and sensory impressions to interactions with others, creates an imprint in that wax, like an insignia pressed into the seal on a letter. In this model, our memories are the marks in the wax: an unchanging mental replica of the events of the past, captured at the moment they occurred. If Plato's medium has fallen into obsolescence, his metaphor has en­ dured. Every generation's cutting-edge recording technology has been pressed into service to symbolize the workings of memory. Flashbulb memories are part of this tradition, as are books, gramophones, movies, and, most recently, computers. (This last analogy is in many ways the most explicit, not least because it is bidirectional: we speak of our memories as being like computers, but also of our computers as having memory-a locu­ tion that's become so natural that we forget it is a metaphor.) Within this recording-technology model of memory, the vividness of an inner picture really does vouchsafe its accuracy. We don't question the integrity of stored . data if the photos aren't faded or missing and the book hasn't fallen apart at the seams. The trouble is, this model of memory is simply wrong. Plato knew it was philosophically unsound, and, in his inimitable fashion, he proposed it only in order to genially eviscerate it. Later thinkers saw that it was sci­ entifically flawed as well, and suggested successively more sophisticated (if still tentative) descriptions of how the brain remembers and forgets. Most contemporary neuroscientists agree that memory is not a single function but multiple distinct processes: remembering people, facts, particular times and places, how to perform physical actions, and so on. Similarly, they agree that these tasks are not accomplished by a single structure-the wax tablet or Polaroid or PC in the brain-but rather by many different ones, whose responsibilities range from face recognition to emotional processing. Per­ haps most tellingly, they also agree that a memory is not so much stored in­ tact in one part of the brain as reassembled by all these different structures each time we call it to mind.

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S o much for the recording-device model of memory. But once we dis­ pense with the model, we also have to dispense with the idea that vividness is a good indicator of accuracy. If, instead of pulling our memories out of storage when we need them, we rebuild them afresh every time, then vividness could just be a feature that we build into some but not others. Alternatively, it could be a side effect of the building process itself. The neuroscientist William Hirst (one of the co-chairs of the 9/1 1 Memory Consortium) explained that some memories might strike us as convincing not because they are necessarily accurate but because of how often we call them to mind (i.e., reassemble them) and how easy it is do so. Hirst also suggests that some memories might feel particularly persuasive because of what he calls our "meta-theories about the kind of things we will or will not remember." That is, some memories might feel "burned on our brain" be­ cause it is psychologically or culturally unacceptable to forget them. Think about all those "Never Forget" bumper stickers that appeared after 9/ 1 1 . As Hirst points out, "sometimes, remembering becomes a moral imperative." This newer model of memory is imperfect. There are still many things we don't understand about how our minds store, retrieve, and reconstruct information from the past. But the real question about this model might simply be whether the nonscientists among us can be brought to believe in it. There's a reason that Plato's wax tablet remains our most pervasive and intuitive model of memory: although it is a bad description of how remem­ bering works, it is an excellent description of how remembering feels. Since we can't sense our minds reconstructing memories from across multiple regions of our brain, we run into the same problem with memory that we had with perception. We can't feel the process, so we can't feel the places in that process where distortions and errors can creep in. This tendency to conflate feeling we know with actually knowing is not limited to the domain of memory. It can be evoked by any sufficiently powerful belief-and, as we'll see in the next chapter, we have powerful beliefs about many, many things. We'll also see in subsequent chapters how the feeling of knowing is reinforced by other factors, ranging from who we hang out with to how our brains work. For now, though, I want to look at what happens when this feeling of knowing collides with the reality of not

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knowing. And for that, we need to go back to where we started-to blind Hannah, who "knows" that she can see.

No doubt about it: it's weird for a blind person to think that she can see. As it turns out, though, this particular problem-Anton's Syndrome-is just the beginning of the weird things going on for Hannah. What's even stranger is that she goes on to confidently describe her doctor's clean shave and fetching tan, not to mention the location and characteristics of a non­ existent notebook. Likewise, as Justice Douglas demonstrated, many people who deny their paralysis do not stop there. If they have somehow accom­ plished a tricky task with one hand-say, buttoning their shirt-they will report that they did it with both. If you invite them to get up and stroll around the room with you, they'll decline, but not by saying they can't move. Instead, they'll say that they would love to but their arthritis is acting up, or they slept poorly the night before, or they are a bit tired because they just returned from a round of golf. These responses are patently untrue, not to mention crazy-sounding, and yet the patients themselves are neither dishonest nor insane. They don't set out to deceive anyone, and they don't have any awareness that what they are saying is false. Furthermore, many of them are lucid, intelligent, articulate, and, right up until the subject of their disability arises, entirely in touch with reality. So what is going on with these people? The answer is that they are confabulating. To confabulate means, basi­ cally, to make stuff up; the most relevant etymological ghost is the word "fable." The confabulations that arise from brain damage are spontane­ ous fables. They explain things, as many fables do, but they are manifestly works of fiction. Like many works of fiction-the magical realism of Gabriel Garcia Marquez, say, or the novels of Haruki Murakami-confabulations seamlessly blend the mundane with the incredible. And confabulation has another thing in common with literature as well: both are manifestations of our unstoppable drive to tell stories that make sense of our world. We'll hear a lot more about that drive in the next chapter. For the mo­ ment, though, the important point is that, under normal circumstances, the

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stories we generate are subject to a fairly extensive process of verification. But not so with confabulators. "The creative ability to construct plausible­ sounding responses and some ability to verify those responses seem to be separate in the human brain," wrote the philosopher William Hirstein (not to be confused with the memory scientist William Hirst) in his 2005 book on confabulation, Brain Fiction. "Confabulatory patients retain the first ability, but brain damage has compromised the second." Imagine, by way of analogy, that each of us possesses an inner writer and an inner fact-checker. As soon as the writer begins devising a story, the fact­ checker gets busy comparing it with the input from our senses, checking it against our memory, examining it for internal inconsistencies, thinking through its logical consequences, determining if it contradicts anything in our database of facts about the world, and, once we utter it, gauging other people's reactions to assess its credibility. True, our stories can still wind up being inaccurate-sometimes even outlandish-but they are nonetheless constrained in certain crucial ways. When the fact-checker falls asleep on the job, however, our theories about the world can become wholly unmoored from reality. All of us have experienced this, because the one time our fact-checkers reliably fall asleep is when we do, too. Think about dreams again for a moment, and about how weird even just the averagely weird ones can be: you are in the house you grew up in, say, only it's in Copenhagen instead of Cleveland, and for some reason there's an Olympic-sized pool in the backyard, where your current boss (who is also sort of your second-grade teacher) is teaching you to swim. Now, two bizarre things are going on here. The first is that your brain is generating representations of the world that are only lightly tethered to the real, or even to the possible. The second is that you are completely untroubled by this fact. This inexplicable nonchalance is nicely captured in Gilbert and Sullivan's comic opera Iolanthe, which features a character re­ counting a convoluted dream about crossing the English Channel. "Bound on that journey," he sings, "you find your attorney, who started that morn­ ing from Devon. I He's a bit undersized and you don't feel surprised when he tells you he's only eleven."

You don 'tfeel su rprised: this is the defining emotional absence in dreams.

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Surprise is a response to the violation of our expectations, an emotional indicator that our theories were in error. But we have no intimation of error in dreams, because we are cut off from all the usual ways to assess the plausibility of our beliefs. Asleep, we have minimal input from our senses, minimal logical processing, no reality-monitoring functions, and no one else around to look at us like we're crazy. Thus no matter how askew or improbable things get (swimming lessons from our boss, prepubescent at­ torneys), we remain unfazed; the erroneous and the impossible simply have no meaning in the dreamscape. (In our dreams, too, we are paralyzed but think we can move, and blind but think we can see.) It's only when we wake up-when our inner fact-checker jolts back into consciousness, and asks our inner writer what on earth she has been up to-that we are able to recog­ nize the implausibility of what we've just experienced. The fact that we abandon reality when we sleep is not a problem. On the contrary: as I pointed out in Chapter Two, it is an anti-problem, one of our species' consistent sources of fascination, inspiration, and pleasure. The difficulty commences when our inner writer operates in a similarly uncon­ strained fashion when we are awake. This is what happens to confabulators. As Hirstein put it in Brain Fiction, "One of the characters involved in an inner dialogue has fallen silent, and the other rambles on unchecked." One of the clearest examples of the confabulation that occurs when this inner dialogue is disrupted comes not from anosognosics but from people with a different neurological problem: epilepsy. In the 1960s, the neurosci­ entist Michael Gazzaniga and his colleagues conducted a series of experi­ ments on split-brain patients-people whose epilepsy is so severe that the two hemispheres of their brain have been surgically separated to control life­ threatening seizures. Using a special process to display images to one side of the brain but not the other, the scientists flashed commands to the right hemisphere of these patients. When the patients obeyed the commands, they were asked to explain their behavior. The resulting answers were bi­ zarre. When a subject who had been commanded to laugh was asked why he was doing so, he told the experimenters, "Oh, you guys are too much." When another subject who had been told to walk was asked why she had stood up, she replied that she was thirsty and was going to get a drink.

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These confabulatory answers were the left brain's solution to a strange problem. That side of the brain is heavily linguistic, and as such it is respon­ sible for crafting our narratives about the world. The right brain, by con­ trast, is only minimally linguistic; it can understand commands and initiate actions, but it can't generate explanations. In healthy human beings, this division of labor isn't a problem, because information is constantly shuttled back and forth between the two hemispheres. In split-brain patients, how­ ever, the two sides have no way to communicate with each other. As a result, when Gazzaniga's subjects were asked to account for their behavior, the right side of the brain (which had seen and responded to the commands) lacked the ability to explain what was going on, while the left side of the brain (which was able to generate explanations) lacked the requisite infor­ mation. In other words, the left hemisphere literally had no idea why its own self was acting as it was. All it could do was theorize backwards from the subject's behavior, and it proved extremely adept at doing so. With no apparent befuddlement, no noticeable time lag, and no appearance of doubt or intent to deceive, the left side of the brain consistently generated com­ pletely plausible-although, of course, completely wrong-explanations. If confabulation occurred only as the result of brain damage or drastic surgical intervention, it would just be a freakish footnote to neuroscience: In fact, though, it's strikingly easy to get healthy people to confabulate. In 1977, the psychologists Richard Nisbett and Timothy Wilson set up shop in a department store in Michigan, where they asked people to compare * Two far more common neurological problems, Alzheimer's disease and dementia in general, are also associated with confabulation. Older adults who suffer from these conditions often seem to confabulate in response to memory loss, as when your ninety­ two-year-old mother fabricates her medical history for her doctor, or claims that some­ one has stolen the purse whose location she has forgotten. In fact, memory deficits are neither necessary nor sufficient to produce confabulation, but the two conditions are correlated. We know, for instance, that amnesiacs (people with severe, short-term memory loss) often generate fictitious narratives to fill iri the gaping holes in their past. Hirstein tells the story of one such patient who replied to a doctor's inquiry about his weekend by recounting the details of a professional conference he had attended in New York. In reality, the patient had been in the hospital not merely throughout the weekend but for the previous three months.

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what they claimed were four different varieties of pantyhose. In reality, all the hose were the same, but that didn't prevent shoppers from showing a preference for one of them. Moreover, it didn't stop them from explaining their preference, by claiming that (for instance) this color was just a little more appealing or that fabric was a little less scratchy. In a sense, this is blind Hannah all over again. It's weird enough that these shoppers chose between identical pantyhose in the first place, but it is even weirder that they generated explanations for those choices. After all, they could have just shrugged and declined to explain their decisions. We are expected to be able to justify our beliefs, but not so our taste. "I just like that one; I couldn't tell you why" is a perfectly acceptable explanation for why we're attracted to a particular pair of pantyhose (or a particular shade of blue, or a particular flavor of ice cream). In fact, it might be the only accept­ able explanation: as we say, there's no accounting for taste. Yet these shop­ pers insisted on providing accounts anyway. Since there were no differences among the pantyhose, these accounts couldn't have been the real reasons behind the shoppers' choices; they could only be post-hoc justifications. Their real motivations remain mysterious. The one factor the researchers could identify was the influence of position, since almost four out of five shoppers preferred the hose on the far right-hand side of the display over those on the far left-hand side. But of course, none of the shoppers explained their choice by reference to location. Instead, like split-brain patients, they confabulated explanations for a decision whose actual origins was buried in an unreachable part of the brain. At first, this experiment seems to demonstrate a strange but basically benign quirk of human cognition: we like to explain things, even when the real explanation eludes us. But it has a sobering epilogue. When Nisbett and Wilson revealed the nature of the experiment to its unwitting subjects, many of them refused to believe that the pantyhose were identical. They argued that they could detect differences, and they stuck by their original preferences. Likewise, people who work with clinical confabulators report that the most striking thing about them isn't the strangeness of their er­ roneous beliefs, nor even the weirdness of the confabulations they generate to cover them, but rather the fact that these confabulations are uttered as if

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they were God's word. A hundred years ago, the German psychiatrist Emil Kraepelin marveled at the "rocklike certitude" with which confabulators delivered their untruths. Hirstein, the author of Brain Fiction, echoed that sentiment. "Perhaps what is most troubling about witnessing such con­ fabulations," he wrote, "is the rock-jawed certainty with which they are offered up." Hirstein noted something else peculiar about confabulators as well. Whenever any of us is asked a question, we can respond in one of three ways (assuming that we are not out to deceive anyone). If we know the answer, we will respond correctly. If we don't know the answer, and we realize that we don't know it, we will admit to being stumped. Finally, if we think we know the answer when we do not, we will respond confidently but incorrectly. For anosognosic confabulators, the first possibility is ruled out: they are neurologically unable to provide the right answers to questions about their impairment. But, Hirstein observed, they are also unable to recognize that they don't know the right answers. "Apparently," he wrote, "admit­ ting ignorance in response to a question, rather than being an indication of glibness and a low level of function, is a high-level cognitive ability, one that confabulators have lost. 'I don't know,' can be an intelligent answer to a question, or at least an answer indicative of good cognitive health." Maybe so, but this same inability to say "I don't know" also afflicted the majority of participants in Nisbett and Wilson's study-confabulators who, to all appearances, enjoyed perfectly fine cognitive health. It's not exactly news that most people are reluctant to admit their igno­ rance. But the point here is not that we are bad at saying "I don't know." The point is that we are bad at knowing we don't know. The feeling of not knowing is, to invert James's formulation, the bell that fails to chime-or, at any rate, the one whose chime we fail to hear. The problem, I suspect, is that we are confused about what ignorance actually feels like. At first blush, it seems that the feeling should be one of blankness, of nothing coming to mind when an answer is required. And sometimes, as when the question we face is a simple matter of fact, this is how ignorance feels: if you ask me who the prime minster of Kyrgyzstan is, I will have no trouble recognizing that I

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haven't the foggiest idea. For the most part, though, the feeling of blankness is a lousy guide to ignorance-because, thanks to our aptitude for generat­ ing stories, stuff is almost always coming to mind. As a result, to know that we don't know, we can't just passively wait around to see if our mind comes up empty. Instead, we need to actively identify and reject all the incorrect or ill-grounded hypotheses our inner writer is madly generating. How good we are at doing this varies significantly from person to per­ son. Some of us have voluble and inventive inner writers, some of us have meticulous inner fact-checkers, and a lucky few have both. Most of us, how­ ever, are noticeably better at generating theories than at registering our own ignorance. Hirstein says that once he began studying confabulation, he started seeing sub-clinical versions of it everywhere he looked, in the form of neurologically normal people "who seem unable to say the words, 'I don't know,' and will quickly produce some sort of plausible-sounding response to whatever they are asked." Such people, he says, "have a sort of mildly confabulatory personality."' Actually, all of us have mildly confabulatory personalities. Take (just for example) me. Not long ago, I found myself participating in a lively discus­ sion about the likely accuracy of string theory. The contributors to this conversation included a lawyer, a labor organizer, an environmental con­ sultant, a graduate student in philosophy, and a journalist (me). One of us (me again) had a friend who was a real-live string theorist. All of us had read a recent New York Times piece describing some recent disputes among theoretical physicists about the future of the field. All of us had also read or heard something else on the subject, at some point, by someone or other­ or at least so we claimed in the course of the conversation. None of us had taken a physics course since high school. I sincerely doubt that any of us were capable of solving so much as a quadratic equation. * There's some evidence that mildly confabulatory people are at risk of becoming ma­ jorly confabulatory people. In a 1996 study, the psychologist E. A. Weinstein asked the family members of anosognosics-some of them also confabulators, some of them not-to describe their afflicted relative's personality before the onset of disease. He found that the confabulators in the group were consistently characterized as having previously been "stubborn, with an emphasis on being right."

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This was a conversation to give the phrase "theoretical physics" a whole new meaning. My friends and I were the most outrageously unqualified group of string theorists ever assembled. In fact, we could far more aptly have been called shoestring theorists: virtuosos of developing elaborate hy­ potheses based on vanishingly small amounts of information. The Chicago Public Radio show This American Life once dedicated an entire episode to this kind of mild confabulation, in the course of which they did us all a favor by coining a vastly better term for it. Actually, it's more accurate to say that they launched an imaginary magazine devoted to covering it-a magazine they called Modern Jackass. Modern Jackass: once you learn the phrase, it's easy to find yourself using it all the time, which says everything you need to know about the per­ vasiveness of mild confabulation. One of the producers of the show, Nancy Updike, joked that she herself is a frequent contributor to Modern Jackass:

Medical Edition-you know, the one where you bullshit your way through an explanation of the merits of antioxidants or the evils of partially hydroge­ nated vegetable oil. I introduced the Modern Jackass concept to my family and within a matter of hours they were turning around and congratulating me on my cover story for the magazine. (It was about the origins of ethnic tension in the former Yugoslavia, about which I know only slightly more than I do about string theory.) And I recently offered a friend a position as a staff writer, after he tried to explain the difference between alternating and direct current, and, immediately thereafter, why the Americans and the British drive on different sides of the road. As ill-informed as these ad hoc, out-loud musings can be, such Modern Jackass moments can play a useful role in our lives. Assuming we have the internal flexibility (and the communal permission) to backtrack and revise, they can help us solve problems, arrive at answers, and figure out what we really believe. But, much like the pantyhose experiment, these intellec­ tual improvisations can have a troublesome outcome. For us, as for those shoppers, something in the alchemy of the interaction often causes our half-baked hypotheses to congeal on the spot. Thus one extremely good way to become wedded to a theory you've just idly expressed is to have it contradicted by, say, your mother. I myself have gone from noncommittal

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to evangelical in a matter of milliseconds using this technique. Likewise, an acquaintance once confessed to me that when his spouse contradicts a theory he's just hatched, he begins spontaneously generating "facts" to support it-even when he realizes that she is right and he is wrong. In cases like these, we actually do know the limits of our knowledge; we just can't stop ourselves from barreling right past them. As with our individual and collective difficulty with saying "I was wrong," we aren't very good at say­ ing, "I don't know." This ineptitude creates all kinds of friction that should, in theory, be avoidable. Imagine how many unnecessary conflicts we'd all have to endure if we didn't have the ability to say "excuse me" when we needed to get past someone in a crowded space, and "I'm sorry" when we accidentally bumped into them instead. These are simple tools, but it is precisely their simplicity that makes them so valuable, since it makes them easy to remember and deploy when we need them. An equally convenient way to acknowledge our ignorance would improve our lives on three fronts. First, it would give us a relatively humiliation-free means to rescue ourselves from our own ridiculousness. Second, it would help us de-escalate all those unwinnable battles over crumb cake. Finally, and perhaps most important, it would give us a new category for a common experience. In providing a way to notice and classify all those moments when we wander out onto shaky limbs, a handy rhetorical device-calling ourselves a Modern Jackass, slapping ourselves on the head, anything­ would give us a sense of just how common this behavior is, in ourselves as well as in others. As such, it could help us get better at exactly the thing we're so bad at: recognizing the limits of our own knowledge. This is an admirable goal. After all, knowing what we don't know is the beginning (and, in some religious and intellectual traditions, the entirety and end) of wisdom. Unfortunately, as we have seen, recognizing the lim­ its of our knowledge is extremely difficult. The philosophical options­ vetting our beliefs to figure out if they are justified, true, necessary, and so forth-are controversial even among philosophers, and impractical as a way to get through life. And the lay option-relying on the feeling of knowing, and trusting the theories that so constantly come to mind-leads us too

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easily into error. In other words, we have no sound method for knowing what we know-which means that, strictly speaking, we don't know much of anything. This doesn't mean that we are dumb, or that all our ideas about the world are useless, or that the only honorable course of action is to throw up our hands and throw in our lots with the Skeptics. "When one admits that nothing is certain," proposed the philosopher Bertrand Russell, "one must, I think, also add that some things are much more nearly certain than others." Those are sound words to live by. And yet, as the example of blind Hannah reminds us, we must also accept that we can't ascertain in advance which of the things we think we know will turn out not to be knowledge after all-will turn out, instead, to be wrong. As that suggests, the idea of knowledge and the idea of error are fun­ damentally incompatible. When we claim to know something, we are es­ sentially saying that we can't be wrong. If we want to contend with the possibility that we could be wrong, then the idea of knowledge won't serve us; we need to embrace the idea of belief instead. This might feel like an unwelcome move, since all of us prefer to think that we know things rather than "merely" believing them. That preference accords with the conven­ tional view of knowledge and belief, in which the former is the loftier of the two concepts. In that view, knowledge is, you will recall, belief plus: plus all the conditions the philosophers put on it, and all the faith that we ourselves put in it. In the end, though, it is belief that is by far the broader, more complex, and more interesting category. It is, I will argue, the atomic unit of our intelligence-the thing that differentiates us from machines, and that lets us navigate the world as deftly as we do. But it is true (and not coinciderttal) that belief is also the atomic unit of error. Whether we wrongly think we can see or wrongly remember what we did on September 1 1 , whether we are mistaken about pantyhose or mistaken about string theory, what we are ultimately wrong about is always a belief. If we want to understand how we err, we need to look to how we believe.

5.

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'Tis with our judgments as our watches, none Go just alike, yet each believes his own. -A L E X A N D E R PoPE, "AN Es sAY ON C R I T I C i s M "

O n October 2 3 , 2008, Alan Greenspan, the former chair o f the Federal Reserve, appeared before a committee of the U. S. House of Representatives to testify about the financial crisis that had lately engulfed more or less the entire planet. Not surprisingly, the atmosphere was somber, and Henry Waxman, the California Democrat who chaired the committee, was not in the mood to pull his punches. "The Federal Reserve had the authority to stop the irresponsible lending practices" that had fueled the crisis, Wax­ man reminded those in attendance. But, he continued, "its long-time chair­ man, Alan Greenspan, rejected pleas that he intervene." Then he addressed Greenspan directly, and reproachfully: "those who trusted the market to regulate itself, yourself included, made a serious mistake."

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This was hardly the kind of congressional welcome to which Greenspan was accustomed. Throughout his five terms as Fed chief, Greenspan had regularly been referred to as "the greatest central banker in history," "the most powerful man in the world," and, simply, "the maestro." His fame ex­ tended beyond the United States (France awarded him the Legion ofHonor; Great Britain made him an honorary knight), as well as beyond financial and political circles. In the words of the Economist magazine, Greenspan en­ joyed "almost rock-star status" among ordinary Americans-a remarkable and somewhat baffling achievement for a famously tight-lipped financier in charge of a blindingly complex aspect of government. His autobiography, presciently titled The Age of Turbulence, reportedly sold for $8.5 million dollars, second only to Bill Clinton's memoir and tied with Pope John Paul II's. When the book came out, in the summer of 2007-right around the time when the financial fault lines began to tremble-it topped both the

New York Times and the Amazon.com bestseller lists. By October 2 3 , though, all that was in the past. The economy had been in bad shape for over a year, and in the spring of 2008, with the collapse of the global investment giant Bear Stearns, it had entered a virtual freefall. What began as a subprime mortgage crisis (triggered by the now-infamous practice of offering mortgages to people with limited or troubled credit his­ tories) had broadened into a liquidity crisis, a credit crisis, a banking crisis, a currency crisis, a trade crisis-just about every kind of economic crisis you could name. In the United States, the stock market had fallen 37 percent since the start of the year. The American economy had lost 1 . 5 million jobs (a figure that would rise to over 5 million by early 2009), and the unem­ ployment rate was marching toward double digits in the worst-hit states and sectors. Globally, the situation was even grimmer. The International Labor Organization predicted that, worldwide, between 18 and 50 million jobs would vanish into the maw of the crisis. Six months after Greenspan spoke, the Blackstone Group, a financial services company, reported that between 40 and 45 percent of global wealth had evaporated in under a year and a half. For anyone with so much as a toe in the global economy, the crisis came as a massive financial and emotional shock-disturbing if you were lucky,

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devastating if you weren't. But for those who were charged with actually understanding and directing that economy, the collapse occasioned a mas­ sive ideological crisis as well. One of the primary jobs of economists is to create models of how financial systems work, and while those models are, by definition, simplifications and estimations as compared to the real thing, they are nonetheless supposed to be useful for making predictions, not to mention policy. (That's why economists create them, after all.) As Wax­ man pointed out, Greenspan's economic model was based on the premise that markets could be trusted to regulate themselves-and, as a corollary, that governments should not do so instead. Since Greenspan's model had essentially been the global model for close to twenty years, the doctrine of market self-regulation had become all but holy writ. As Waxman put it, "trust in the wisdom of the markets was infinite." Then the markets imploded-and, with them, the model. As Greenspan told the committee, "the whole intellectual edifice collapsed." He had, he continued, "found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical func­ tioning structure that defines how the world works." If that wasn't clear enough, Waxman offered a blunt translation: "you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right." It is a measure of how completely and publically Greenspan's model had failed that he was forced to concur. "Precisely," he replied. "That's precisely the reason I was shocked, because I had been going for forty years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well." The demise of his doctrine that the market would always protect investors had left him, he said, "in a state of shocked disbelief." In that, Greenspan was hardly alone. One of the most striking features of the economic catastrophe was the sheer number of financiers wandering around in a state of stunned bewilderment, trying to grasp how their under­ standing of the world had served them so poorly. As the hedge fund man­ ager Steve Eisman told the financial writer Michael Lewis (he of Moneyball and Liar's Poker fame), being an investment banker in the early twenty­ first century was "like being a Scholastic, prior to Newton. Newton comes along, and one morning you wake up: 'Holy shit, I'm wrong! ' " Still, one could argue-and many did-that Greenspan, at least, had

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no business being quite s o shocked. Over the years, countless people had challenged his deregulatory dogma, including (to name just a few) Jo­ seph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman, both Nobel Prize-winning economists, and Brooksley Born, who was head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from 1996 to 1999. Born eventually became something of a Cassandra figure for the crisis, since she repeatedly called for regulat­ ing the market for derivatives, those ultracomplex financial products that eventually helped bring down the economy. Those calls were silenced when Greenspan, along with then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and then-Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Arthur Levitt, took the extraordinary step of convincing Congress to pass legislation forbidding Born's agency from taking any action for the duration of her term. In a joint statement issued at the time, Greenspan defended the move on the grounds of "grave concern about this [proposed regulatory] action and its possible consequences." Merely discussing the option of government regulation, he asserte d , could destabilize the markets and send capital surging out of the United States. If Greenspan was reduced to "shocked disbelief" when the markets failed to regulate themselves and slid into chaos, it was not because he'd never been warned of the possibility. Nor was it because his own model had never been criticized (it had), or because alternative models had never been floated (they had). The problem, instead, was that his faith in the ability of markets to regulate themselves was, in Born's word, "absolutist." Greenspan was as figuratively invested in unregulated markets as the rest of us were literally invested in them. He had a model of how the world worked, and his confidence in it was all but immoveable. Actually, Greenspan had many thousands of models of how the world worked. He must have, because we all do. These models are our beliefs, and they cover everything from how we should invest our money to where we left our wallet. We believe in some of these models only tentatively­ personally, I'm only about 50 percent sure of the whereabouts of my wallet right now-and some of them absolutely. But no matter how unshakably we believe in them, the models themselves can be shaken; that is what dif­ ferentiates belief from the imaginary ideal of knowledge. Knowledge, as

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we have seen, cannot make room for error, and therefore could not have failed Greenspan. But beliefs can, and his did. In fact, it failed us all.

This book is about our Greenspan moments: about what happens when our beliefs, including our most fundamental, convincing, and important ones, fail us. To understand how beliefs fail, though, we first need to understand how they work. And to understand that, we need to start with the most basic question of all: just what is a belief, anyway? When we talk about beliefs in casual conversation, we usually mean our overt convictions about important matters: about religion or morality or pro­ priety, politics or economics, ourselves or other people. These beliefs are explicit, in the sense that we are aware of having them, and can articulate and defend them if called upon to do so. Put differently, there is an experience as­ sociated with holding them. It felt like something for Alan Greenspan to be­ lieve in market self-regulation, just as it feels like something for you to believe in God, or in universal healthcare, or that your father-in-law dislikes you. By contrast, when philosophers talk about belief (which they do often; it is an occupational hazard), they mean something markedly different. Or rather, they mean something more: they agree that our overt convictions about financial markets and so forth deserve to be called beliefs, but they think a lot of other things merit the term as well. Suppose you are reading this book in bed at midnight with the blinds drawn. Philosophers would say that your set of beliefs right now includes the following: that it is dark outside; that the sun will not rise for many more hours; that when it does, it will do so in the east; that the mattress underneath you is a solid object; that a flying saucer is not about to crash through your bedroom window; that you will wake up tomorrow as the same person you are today, and so on.' * And on and on: one implication of the philosophical definition of belief is that, techni­ cally, the set of beliefs each of us holds is infinite. (If you believe there isn't a monster under your toddler's bed, you also believe there aren't two monsters under her bed, or three monsters, or . . . et cetera.) Needless to say, no one actually holds an infinite number of beliefs in the conscious mind. But the point of this definition of belief is that consciousness doesn't matter. What matters is that our everyday actions are grounded

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What makes these additional beliefs seem s o strange-what makes them seem, in fact, so unbelief-like-is that there is no experience associ­ ated with holding them. Believing that my mattress is solid doesn't feel like believing in God, largely because believing that my mattress is solid doesn't feel like anything. I am completely unaware of believing it. Left to my own devices, I'm extremely unlikely to characterize it as a belief, and, if I'm called upon to defend it, I will be both baffled as to why I should do so and at a loss as. to how to go about it. In other words, almost everything we normally associate with the experience of believing-consciousness, conviction, emotion, explanation-is absent from these other, implicit beliefs. Psychologically, then, the everyday concept of belief and the philo­ sophical one differ from each other in the most salient way imaginable: in how we experience them. Functionally, however, they are virtually indis­ tinguishable. Whether we are aware of our beliefs or not, they are all, like Greenspan's free-market philosophy, models of the world. In the literal sense, a model of the world is a map, and that's basically what beliefs are, too: mental representations of our physical, social, emotional, spiritual, and political landscapes. My explicit belief that my father-in-law dislikes me is crucial to my mental representation of my family, just as my implicit belief that my mattress is solid is crucial to my mental representation of my bedroom. Both serve the same maplike function of helping me figure out where I might or might not want to sit when I enter a certain room. Both, in other words, are necessary pixels in my picture of the world. Whether or not I can feel that pixel light up in my head is irrelevant. Think about what happens when I walk into an unfamiliar hotel room at night: in order to decide where to lie down, I need a mental image of the kind of things on which I can sleep, but I don't need to know that I have t hat image. The model of the world-the belief-is vital, but awareness of the belief is dispensable. In fact, lack of awareness is the norm. From the anticipated behavior of inanimate objects to the presumed identity of our parents to whether we can see a mountain chain or see at all, the vast in an essentially limitless number of implicit convictions.

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majority of our mental models are implicit: entirely unfelt, yet essential to how we make sense of ourselves and the world. Just as implicit and explicit beliefs function in the same way, they also fail in the same way. However different they might seem to us under normal circumstances, in the moment of error, they are identical. Or rather, they

become identical: the instant an implicit assumption is violated, it turns into an explicit one. Imagine for a moment a scene worthy of a Marx Brothers movie. It's nighttime, I emerge from the bathroom in my pajamas, pick up my book, lie down on my bed-and, wham, fall straight through the mat­ tress onto the floor. Should this exceedingly unlikely scenario somehow transpire, three things will have collapsed. The first is my mattress. The second is my belief in the solidity of that mattress. The third-and here is the point I am trying to make-is the implicitness of that belief. If I find myself sprawled on the floor, all of my previously unconscious convictions about mattresses will suddenly surge into consciousness. In the moment of error, our implicit beliefs are simultaneously contravened and revealed. Once we acknowledge that implicit assumptions and explicit convic­ tions are just subsets of the single category of belief, we can go further and acknowledge that even the distinction between them is suspect. All of us have plenty of beliefs that we are somewhat aware of holding, or that we can become aware of holding when necessary. (I don't believe anything about the location of my sunglasses in December, but come June, when I can't find them, I believe that my sister borrowed them.) Still, however tenuous th is distinction might be, it is relevant to this book in at least one respect. While many of our beliefs fall somewhere in the middle of the implicit­ explicit spectrum, it is those that lie at the extreme ends that collapse most spectacularly in the event of error. If anything can rival for sheer drama the demise of a belief that we have adamantly espoused, it is the demise of a be­ lief so fundamental to our lives that we never even registered its existence.

Our beliefs, then, are models of the world-but they aren't just models for models' sake. Like economic models, our mental ones exist to help us make predictions and policies. In the words of William James, beliefs "are re-

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ally rules for action." One obvious corollary to this i s that our beliefs have consequences. I don't mean that being wrong about them has consequences, although that's also true: as we just saw, a flawed belief helped eradicate nearly half the world's wealth. I mean that simply holding a belief can have consequences. Consider another financial example. Since 1992 , CalTech and MIT have been collaborating on a project known as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory. The observatory is the single most ex­ pensive project ever funded by the National Science Foundation. It took ten years and $300 million to build, and costs $30 million per year to operate. Its mission is to find gravitational waves ("ripples in the fabric of space-time [that] are produced by violent events throughout the universe," says the NSF, if that helps), and it had better succeed, because the existence of those waves is posited by nothing less than the general theory of relativity. As the science writer Margaret Wertheim has noted, this is an instance where "belief has brought into being a half-billion-dollar machine." A half-billion dollars is a bundle of money, but pricey machines are just the tip of the iceberg. Housing bubbles, holy wars, the 1964 Civil Rights Act, the lunar landing: all of these came about as the result of be­ lief. Plainly, then, our beliefs don't just have financial and material con­ sequences. They also have political, legal, intellectual, cultural, and even corporeal ones. And, crucially, they have emotional and psychological con­ sequences as well. Again, I'm not talking about the emotional consequences of being wrong about a belief, a topic we'll get into later. I'm talking about the emotional consequences of merely believing it-the way that building a gravitational-wave observatory is a consequence of believing in general relativity (whether or not it is correct), and investing in the stock market is a consequence of believing that it is sound (whether or not it is). Some of the emotional consequences of our beliefs are pretty straight­ forward. If you believe that your true love is nervous during dinner because he plans to propose to you over dessert, you will be excited and happy; if you believe that he is nervous because he plans to break up with you, you will be anxious and upset. But examples like that don't get at either the scope or the significance of the psychological repercussions of our beliefs. To grasp that

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scope, you have t o grasp the scope o f belief itself. Our models o f the world extend beyond markets and mattresses and the general theory of relativity, into a kind of General Theory of Us: whether we think we are attractive and intelligent, competent or inept, better or worse off than other people; whether we think our parents loved us; whether we think a God is watching over us; whether we think we are basically safe and cared for in the world. Convictions like these organize our idea of who we are, as well as how we relate to our environment. As that suggests, and as we'll see through­ out this book, our beliefs are inextricable from our identities. That's one reason why being wrong can so easily wound our sense of self. And it's also why psychotherapy often focuses on helping people to examine-and, when necessary, change-their beliefs about themselves and others. Regardless of whether those beliefs are conscious or unconscious, regardless of whether they are right or wrong, they determine how we feel and how we behave every day of our lives.

Here is what we have learned so far in our quest to understand beliefs: they are models of the world; they help us take action; and accordingly, they incur consequences. Good enough-except why, then, do we have so many beliefs that we will never be able to act on? This is sometimes known as the problem of distal beliefs. "Distal," in this case, means far from the self; a distal belief is one that pertains to things remote from us in time or space or relevance. If we believe in the soundness of markets, the solidity of mattresses, or the existence of God, those beliefs will guide our actions in the world. But what about the belief that string theory is right, that South Africa's AIDS policy is wrong, and that Alpha Centauri C is the closest star to the earth? As we'll see in Chapter Seven, merely espousing such beliefs might be socially prudent or advantageous, regardless of whether they are relevant, or even right. But unless you are a physicist or a public health ex­ pert or an interstellar traveler, they will not enable you to take any action in the world. Why, then, do we bother having distal beliefs? One way to answer this question-certainly the most fun way-is to think about sex. The reason

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we have a sex drive i s to ensure that we reproduce, but the vast majority of our sexual activity does not result in offspring. We simply have an in­ stinct to copulate, with the consequence that we have enough babies and (evolutionarily speaking) way more than enough sex. For at least a century, psychologists and philosophers have suggested that our urge to explain the world is analogous to our urge to populate it. Like making babies, they argue, making theories is so crucial to our survival that we have a natural drive to do so-what William James called a "theoretic instinct." · This is the impulse I gestured toward in the last chapter: the one that compels us to generate stories and explanations all the time, even at the risk of being featured in a magazine called Modern Jackass. It's easy to see why a theory drive would be evolutionarily advantageous. Imagine that you are your own earliest ancestor, trying to make your way in the world some 200,000 years ago. Somehow, you have to figure out that shaking a certain kind of tree will make edible fruit fall to the ground. You have to learn that berries of specific shapes and colors are nourishing, while other very similar berries can kill you. Upon hearing a rustling in the bushes, you have to be able to infer-pretty damn quickly-the presence of a predator, or of dinner. In other words, you must be extraordinarily adept at guessing what's going on in your erlVironment and why. This is precisely the skill set covered by theorizing, and its utility has not diminished over time. While my concerns about predators might be greatly diminished these days, I now need to be able to determine whether the stranger striding toward me wants to ask me for a light or relieve me of my wallet, whether the explosions • At the risk of further muddying some already murky lexical waters, I use the words "belief' and "theory" almost interchangeably in this book. Some thinkers have called for a distinction between the two terms, arguing that theories are more explicit, more developed, or more explanatory than beliefs. But such distinctions are largely unten­ able, or at any rate extremely slippery. For instance, try applying them to the statement "I believe in God." If you are a five-year-old, that statement almost certainly represents a belief: a not very developed, probably not very explanatory, and possibly not even very explicit conviction. On the other hand, if you are the pope, it is clearly a theory. Moreover-and more important for my purposes-none of the differences we can posit between beliefs and theories have any bearing on their function. Theories, like beliefs, exist to represent the world around us.

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outside are a threat to my life or merely a fireworks display, and whether or not my two-year-old just ate the Lego that is suddenly nowhere to be seen. Theorizing, like fornicating, is of timeless use to our species. The evolutionary utility of theorizing helps explain why we have such a hyper-abundance of beliefs-including those, like distal beliefs, that serve no obvious purpose. Just as our reproductive instinct somehow produced Paris Hilton videos and our language instinct somehow produced Proust, our theorizing instinct has long since exceeded the barebones requirements of survival. Because we needed to be able to theorize about some things (unfamiliar berries, rustling bushes), we wound up able to theorize about everything. And we do. How supernovas are formed, why autism is on the rise, what was going on with that married couple at the cocktail party, why we like one pair of pantyhose more than another: there is virtually no subject-no matter what domain of life it concerns, how pressing or trivial it may be, and how much or little we know about it-that is not suitable fodder for our theory-happy minds. The evolutionary urgency of theorizing also helps explain why we form beliefs both constantly and unconsciously. Of course, we are capable of theorizing intentionally, too, and we do so all the time-both informally (as when we spend happy hour trying to figure out why our boss was in such a foul temper that afternoon) and formally (as when we spend our career trying to figure out what causes cancer). What we aren't capable of doing is

not theorizing. Like breathing, we can ignore the belief-formation process or control it-or even refine it-but whatever we do, it will keep on going for as long as we keep on living. And with good reason: if we want to eat dinner rather than be dinner, we are well served by a process so rapid and automatic that we don't need to waste time deliberately engaging it. As with our perceptual processes, this automatic theorizing generally careens into consciousness only when something goes wrong. For instance: not long ago, I arranged to meet an interview subject for coffee in Manhat­ tan. When I walked into the cafe and she stood up to introduce herself, I had the common yet always somewhat startling experience of realizing that she looked nothing like what I had expected. What was strange about this experience-what is always strange about such experiences-is that, prior

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to meeting this woman, I had no idea that I had any mental image of her at all. And yet, somewhere in the back of my mind, I had generated a picture of her, without any conscious awareness of doing so. Moreover, this process must have been quite sophisticated, since when I went back and thought about it, I realized that not only could I describe the person I had expected to see, I could pinpoint some of the factors that led me to draw my mistaken portrait: a name I associated with a certain era and ethnicity, a scrap of information that suggested a certain aesthetic, and so forth. In short, some very sophisticated theory making was going on in my mind, entirely with­ out my awareness. This is true for all of us, all the time. Below the level of conscious thought, we are always amassing information from our environ­ ment and using it to add to or rearrange our model of the world. As with the much-debated language instinct, the theorizing instinct is, itself, just a theory. No one knows if our capacity to generate hypotheses about the world is truly hard-wired. We do know, though, that it kicks in very early. For instance, there is suggestive evidence that babies as young as seven months are already theorizing about basic physical properties such as gravity. That might seem hard to believe, but tack on a few more months and you've got a toddler-and toddlers are infamous theorizers. Armed with not much more than an insatiable drive for physical exploration and an enthusiasm for the word "why," the average two-year-old seems determined to take on the whole world. And that's exactly what he or she is doing. It is in childhood, after all, that our environment is most mysterious to us, and most urgently in need of mapping. The Berkeley psychologist Alison Gopnik has even posited that the theory drive exists specifically for early childhood, although it operates throughout our lives-just as the sex drive exists specifically for our fertile years, even though we are sexual long be­ fore and long after. Whether the idea of a theory instinct turns out to be sound biology or just apt analogy, belief formation is clearly central to our species. Its sur­ vival value aside (as if survival were the kind of thing we could set aside), it defines the way we inhabit our environment, inarguably for the better. I invoke again the analogy to sex and language: it is good to make babies and shout warnings, but it is really good to make love and read Shakespeare.

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So too with theorizing: the instinct is about staying alive, but the excess is about living. It enriches our everyday life (those happy-hour debriefs about the boss) and enables our most extraordinary achievements (that hoped-for cure for cancer). Without it, we would be bereft of virtually all our hallmark human endeavors: religion, science, and storytelling; curiosity, exploration, and discovery. With it, we are able to venture beyond the known world and toward the terrain of all that is hidden from us-the past and the future and the far-flung, the cloaked machinery of nature, other people's inner lives. It is the gift that beckons us beyond the eked-out existence of mere survival.

There is, predictably, a problem. Although we are highly adept at making models of the world, we are distinctly less adept at realizing that we have made them. As I suggested in my discussion of perception, our beliefs often seem to us not so much constructed as reflected, as if our minds were simply mirrors in which the truth of the world passively appeared. Psychologists refer to this conviction as naive realism. Naive realism is an automatic tendency, not an intentional philosophical position. If you actually believed that the world was precisely as you experienced it, you would be an intentional naive realist, but as far as I know, no one has seri­ ously subscribed to this position in the entire history of humanity. Even the most impassioned realist, the kind that regards relativists as dangerous loons from Planet France, recognizes that our experience of the world is not identical with the world itself. To take only the simplest examples: there is no such thing as red if you are a bat, and no such thing as loud if you are a rock, and (so far as we currently know) no such thing as triumph or regret if you are a Shetland pony. Color and sound and emotion are all central to how we experience and make sense of the world, but they can't inhere in the world itself, because they cease to exist the moment you take minds out of the picture. Conversely, plenty of things exist in the world that the human mind cannot experience directly: the infrared spectrum, the structure of molecules, and very possibly a dozen or so extra dimensions. With good reason, then, there are no proponents of naive realism. But that doesn't mean there are no naive realists. On the contrary, there are

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tons of them-starting, research suggests, with everyone under the age of four. Very young children seem to believe, truly and ardently, that our minds and the world never diverge from each other. As a result-and this is why naive realism matters so much to this book-they think we can't believe things that are wrong. We know this about little kids courtesy of one of the classic experi­ ments of developmental psychology. The experiment is known as the false belief test, or, informally, as the Sally-Ann task, after the most famous of its many variations. If you count among your acquaintances a child under the age of four, you can replicate it yourself-and you should, because until you've seen the results firsthand, it's hard to grasp their weirdness, and harder still to believe them. All you need to do is stage a simple puppet show. One character (Sally, in the classic version) takes a candy bar, puts it in a basket, closes the lid, and leaves the room. As soon as she disappears, another character (Ann) takes the candy bar out of the basket and hides it in a cupboard. Now ask the child this: when Sally returns, where will she look for her candy bar? If the child you've enlisted for this experiment is your own, you already know that kids of this age are stupendous thinkers. They speak and under­ stand their native language (or languages) with ease, and add words and concepts with a rapidity that is the envy of every adult. They are insatiably curious, highly attentive to the world around them, and capable of impres­ sive feats of memory and concentration. They understand cause and ef­ fect and can reason about when, why, and how things happen. They make inferences about the world around them that, even when wrong, display a remarkable attentiveness to their environment. They play games, not to mention invent them. They negotiate complex social interactions, and they understand that different people can have different needs, desires, and emo­ tions. Depending on the family they were born into, they may already be reading about star-bellied sneetches or learning to play hockey or studying the violin. And yet, without fail, these same brilliant children will confi­ dently report that Sally will look for her candy bar not in the basket where she put it, but where it actually is: in the cupboard where it was hidden while she was out of the room.

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To adults (or, for that matter, six-year-olds), this answer is baffling. We understand that there is no way Sally could know the real whereabouts of her candy bar-literally no mechanism by which she could acquire that knowledge-because she wasn't around to witness Ann relocating it. But this experiment suggests that young children don't care about such mecha­ nisms. For them, it seems, the world and the mind enjoy an automatic cor­ respondence: Sally thinks the candy bar is in the cupboard because the candy bar is in the cupboard. Adults, whether they are realists or relativists, recognize that the mind contains a kind of personalized representation of reality-the world as rendered by you or me or Sally. Kids, by contrast, seem to think the mind contains a replica of reality: the world as rendered by Xerox. Apparently, they don't yet understand that beliefs about the world can be at variance with the world itself.' If the Sally-Ann test doesn't seem like conclusive proof of this claim, consider the following, even more astonishing variant of it. In this version, children are shown a box with a picture of candy on the front and asked what they think is inside. Reasonably enough, they say "candy." When they open it, however, they find (presumably to their disappointment) that it is full of pencils. Here's the astonishing part: if you then ask the children what they thought was in the box before they opened it-that is, about twenty seconds earlier-they will insist that they thought it contained pen­ cils. What children maintain about the imaginary Sally they also maintain about themselves: that their beliefs about the world cannot deviate from the world as it really is. This faith in the perfect accuracy of our beliefs is fleeting. By the age of five, virtually all children can pass the Sally-Ann test with ease. In coming

•

Remember the Pessimistic Meta-Induction from the History of Science? Here it is

in action. While I was writing this book, the once uncontroversial claim that young children can't grasp the existence of a gap between the mind and the world suddenly came up for debate. Recent evidence from infancy experiments (where eye gaze is used as a measure of babies' beliefs) suggests that children might understand more about false beliefs than psychologists previously thought. Although three- and four-year-olds still reliably fail the Sally-Ann task, it now appears that fourteen-month-olds can pass it. It remains to be seen how these findings will be reconciled.

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to d o so, these children have acquired what developmental psychologists call "representational theory of mind." That is, they've figured out what a mind is, at least in general terms-not a photocopy of reality but a private and somewhat idiosyncratic means for making sense of the world-and they've figured out that everybody has one. This changed understanding leads to striking new insights: that beliefs about the world can be at odds with the world itself; that my beliefs can be at odds with yours; that other people don't necessarily know everything I know; and, conversely, that I don't necessarily know everything other people know. These insights seem so obvious to adults that it is easy to overlook their importance. The ability to grasp what minds do, to understand that people can hold beliefs that are mistaken or different from our own, subtends a vast swath of mature thinking. It allows us to "read minds," not as psychics use the term but as psychologists do-to infer people's thoughts and feelings based on their words, actions, or circumstances. Rebecca Saxe, a neurosci­ entist at MIT and one of the leading contributors to our understanding of the brain structures underlying theory of mind, offers the example of Romeo

and Juliet. As audience members, we know that the seemingly lifeless Juliet is not actually dead, as Romeo believes, but has merely taken a sleeping po­ tion. But if we didn't have theory of mind, we wouldn't be able to set aside our own knowledge and see the scene as Romeo does-and so we wouldn't understand why he kills himself. The false belief on which the whole tragedy turns would be completely lost on us. So, too, would entire expanses of the social landscape. Without theory of mind, we wouldn't be able to register the subtleties of a flirtation, recog­ nize our accidental offenses against a friend, or foresee that coming home two hours late might alarm and anger our family. As these examples sug­ gest, theory of mind is vital to our emotional, intellectual, and moral de­ velopment. (Tragically, we have some idea of how compromised we would be without it, because its absence or diminution is characteristic of people with autism and Asperger's syndrome.)

Another variant of the Sally-Ann task provides a particularly poignant illustration of the difference between healthy and autistic children's ability to understand other •

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Once you acquire theory of mind, there is no going back; barring serious brain injury, you will never fail the Sally-Ann test again. But the attraction of naive realism never wholly fades. Granted, we come to understand, in the abstract, that our beliefs can be skewed by any number of factors, ranging from the silent nudgings of self-interest to the limits of omniscience-the fact that, like Sally, sometimes we just aren't in the right room at the right time. When it comes to our specific convictions about the world, however, we all too easily lapse back into the condition of toddlers, serenely con­ vinced that our own beliefs are simply, necessarily true.t Why do we do this? The most obvious answer is that we're so emotion­ ally invested in our beliefs that we are unable or unwilling to recognize people's minds. In this version, the experimenter shows the child a Polaroid camera, explains what it does, takes some sample pictures, and allows the child to play with it until he or she is familiar with how it works. Then the puppet show proceeds as in the original experiment-except that, when Sally puts the candy bar in the basket, the experimenter takes a picture of it there. At the end of the show, after Sally has left the room and Ann has moved the candy bar to the cupboard, the child is asked not where Sally thinks the candy bar is, but where it will appear in the photograph. Although this test and the original Sally-Ann experiment seem identical in the determination that children are asked to make, neuroscientists have shown that we use different parts of the brain to reason about minds than about objects. Healthy children find the Polaroid version of the false-belief task harder than the original one: they continue to fail it for some months after they've begun to reason correctly about other people's beliefs. Autistic children, by contrast, can pass the false-belief test when it involves Polaroid pictures, but not when it involves other people's minds. The workings of the former, a mechanical object, are transparent to them. It is the latter that is the black box.

t Our habit of treating many of our beliefs like facts can be seen, in somewhat sidelong fashion, in the specialized way we use the expression "I believe." When I flag a state­ ment as a belief, I'm not emphasizing the depths of my conviction; I'm taking pains to convey my doubt. Imagine that you and I are at a party when a distant acquaintance walks through the door. You nudge me and ask me to remind you of his name. If I say, "His name is Victor," there's a good chance that you'll exclaim, "Victor! Good to see you again." But if l say, "I believe his name is Victor," you will probably have the sense to hold back. You will rightly hear, in that "I believe," an implicit caveat: "this is just a belief; I could be wrong." We attach no such caveats when we feel no uncertainty, which is why we say "Rudy Giuliani is a reactionary control freak," not "I believe that Rudy Giuliani is a reactionary control freak."

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them a s anything but the inviolable truth. (The very word "believe" comes from an Old English verb meaning "to hold dear," which suggests, cor­ rectly, that we have a habit of falling in love with our beliefs once we've formed them.) There's a lot to be said for that answer, and much of it will get said in the coming pages. For now, though, I want to propose another, less obvious theory about why we act like our beliefs are necessarily true­ which is that we are logically obliged to do so. Philosophers have a name for this theory, but, unfortunately, it's a name that only a philosopher could love: the First Person Constraint on Doxastic Explanation. "Doxas­ tic" means "pertaining to beliefs"; that strange syllable, dox, is the same one that shows up in words like "orthodox" ("believing correctly") and "para­ dox" ("contrary beliefs"). In lay terminology, the phrase means that each of us has limited options for how to explain why we believe the things we do. I'm going to jettison this cumbersome name and (for reasons that will become obvious in a moment) call this idea the 'Cuz It's True Constraint. Here's how it works. Let's say I believe that drinking green tea is good for my health. Let's also say that I've been drinking three cups of green tea a day for twenty years, that I come from a long line of green tea drinkers, and that I'm the CEO of a family-owned corporation, Green Tea Interna­ tional. An impartial observer would instantly recognize that I have three very compelling reasons to believe in the salubrious effects of green tea, none of which have anything to do with whether those effects are real. First, having ingested vast quantities of it, at least partially in the convic­ tion that I was boosting my chances at a long and healthy life, I'm going to be resistant to any suggestion that all that tea had zero effect on me (or, worse, a deleterious one). Second, because my allegiance to green tea is part of an entrenched and presumably sacrosanct family tradition, questioning it could seriously damage my most intimate relationships, not to mention my share of the family fortune. Finally, I have staked my financial and profes­ sional status on the belief that green tea is good for one's health. In short, I have powerful social, psychological, and practical reasons to believe in the merits of green tea. The gist of the 'Cuz It's True Constraint is that I myself can't believe that these reasons contribute in any significant way to my conviction that green tea is good for me. Instead, I must believe

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that this conviction is based on the facts: in this case, on the physical (rather than emotional, financial, or familial) benefits of green tea. In other words, I must believe that I believe it

'cuz it's true. As the philosopher Ward Jones

said, "It simply does not make sense to see myself as both believing that P is true"-where "P" stands for any proposition-"and being convinced that I do so for reasons having nothing to do with P's being true."

Viewed in a certain light, the 'Cuz It's True Constraint can appear self­ evident, or even circular. Of course we have to think our beliefs are true: that's what it means to believe them. Fair enough. But one of the strengths of philosophy lies in looking closely at the self-evident-and when you look closely at the 'Cuz It's True Constraint, you see the origins of some of the most important aspects of our relationship to wrongness. Specifically, you begin to see why we are so convinced that our own beliefs must be right, and why we feel no need to extend that assumption to other people. So let's look closely. The 'Cuz It's True Constraint has several stipula­ tions, the first of which is that it applies only to beliefs I currently hold. I can readily concede that beliefs I used to hold weren't based on the facts­ that, say, my conviction about adulterers burning in eternal hellfire was just a product of my evangelical upbringing, or that my stint with the In­ ternational Socialist Organization was just a way to rebel against my con­ servative parents. What's more, once I've rejected a belief, I can often only perceive the self-serving reasons I believed it, and can no longer recognize any evidence for it as rationally; compelling. The second stipulation of the 'Cuz It's True Constraint is that it applies only to specific beliefs-not to my entire set of beliefs, nor to how I feel about the nature of believing in general. As I already mentioned, most of us can acknowledge, in the abstract, that beliefs are influenced by all kinds of non-objective factors. We can even go further and admit that, at this very moment, some of our own beliefs are doubtless swayed by such factors as well. It is only when we are confronted about a specific and active belief that the constraint kicks in. Ask me whether I think my beliefs in general are affected by personal biases and I'll say sure. Ask me about the fidelity of my girlfriend or the safety of my health regimen or the accuracy of the data I just published in that prominent journal, and-ah, well, I assure you that I

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believe i n those things not because they are comforting or convenient, but because, by God, they are true. Finally, consider the most important stipulation of the 'Cuz It's True Constraint. This is the one suggested by the "first person" part of its proper name: it applies only to our own beliefs, not to those of other people. Noth­ ing about the constraint prevents me from thinking that Ellen believes in God to ameliorate her fear of death, or that Rudolf opposes gun control because his father sits on the board of the NRA, or that you believe be­ haviorism is baloney because your entire tenure committee does, too. On the contrary, we impute biased and self-serving motives to other people's beliefs all the time. And, significantly, we almost always do so pejoratively. If l suggest that the CEO of Green Tea Incorporated stands to gain finan­ cially by believing in the benefits of green tea, I'm at the very least implying that she isn't qualified to judge the truth of her belief-and, more likely, I am implying that there is no truth to her belief: In other words, if we want to discredit a belief, we will argue that it is advantageous, whereas if we want to champion it, we will argue that it is true. That's why we downplay or dismiss the self-serving aspects of our own convictions, even as we are quick to detect them in other people's beliefs. Psychologists refer to this asymmetry as "the bias blind spot." The bias blind spot can be partly explained by the Lake Wobegon Effect, that end­ lessly entertaining statistical debacle whereby we all think that we are above average in every respect-including, amusingly, impartiality. But a second factor is that we can look into our own minds, yet not into anyone else's. This produces a methodological asymmetry: we draw conclusions about other people's biases based on external appearances-on whether their be­ liefs seem to serve their interests-whereas we draw conclusions about our own biases based on introspection. Since, as we've seen, much of belief­ formation neither takes place in nor leaves traces in conscious thought, our conclusions about our own biases are almost always exculpatory. At most,

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This is a logical fallacy. The fact that I benefit from a given belief might raise ques­

tions about my capacity to assess it objectively, but it doesn't bear on the truth of the belief itself. After all, people benefit from true beliefs as well as false ones.

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we might acknowledge the existence of factors that could have prejudiced us, while determining that, in the end, they did not. Unsurprisingly, this method of assessing bias is singularly unconvincing to anyone but ourselves. As the Princeton psychologist Emily Pronin and her colleagues observed in a study of the bias blind spot, "we are not particularly comforted when others assure us that they have looked into their own hearts and minds and concluded that they have been fair and objective." So we look into our hearts and see objectivity; we look into our minds and see rationality; we look at our beliefs and see reality. This is the essence of the 'Cuz It's True Constraint: every one of us confuses our models of the world with the world itself-not occasionally or accidentally but necessarily. This is a powerful phenomenon, and it sets in motion a cascade of corollar­ ies that determines how we deal with challenges to our belief systems-not, alas, for the better. The first such corollary is the Ignorance Assumption. Since we think our own beliefs are based on the facts, we conclude that people who disagree with us just haven't been exposed to the right information, and that such exposure would inevitably bring them over to our team. This assumption is extraordinarily widespread. To cite only the most obvious examples, all religious evangelism and a good deal of political activism (especially grass­ roots activism) is premised on the conviction that you can change people's beliefs by educating them on the issues. The Ignorance Assumption isn't always wrong; sometimes our ideo­ logical adversaries don 't know the facts. But it isn't always right, either. For starters, ignorance isn't necessarily a vacuum waiting to be filled; just as often, it is a wall, actively maintained. More to the point, though, the Igno­ rance Assumption can be wrong because we can be wrong: the facts might contradict our own beliefs, not those of our adversaries. Alternatively, the facts might be sufficiently ambiguous to support multiple interpretations. That we generally ignore this possibility speaks to the powerful asymmetry of the Ignorance Assumption. When other people reject our beliefs, we think they lack good information. When we reject their beliefs, we think we possess good judgment. When the Ignorance Assumption fails us-when people stubbornly

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persist i n disagreeing with us even after we've tried to enlighten them­ we move on to the Idiocy Assumption. Here, we concede that our oppo­ nents know the facts, but deny that they have the brains to comprehend them. This assumption can be a narrow judgment, applied to a specific person on a specific issue, or it can be a sweeping assessment of any indi­ vidual or group we regard as the opposition. In the course of working on this book, I spoke with a left-wing lawyer who described growing up in a politically progressive environment and then attending a liberal (in every sense) arts college. As a consequence, she told me, "it wasn't until I went to Yale Law School that I met people I disagreed with, ideologically, who were incredibly smart. This is going to sound ridiculous, but it wasn't until then that I realized that conservatives could be intelligent." It would be nice if that statement did sound ridiculous, but we hear variations on it so often that this one scarcely registers as surprising (except, perhaps, in its forthrightness). Think, for instance, of the countless times we say things like "what kind of idiot could actually believe . . . " One of the most common answers to that question is: the wicked kind. This is the Evil Assumption-the idea that people who disagree with us are not ignorant of the truth, and not unable to comprehend it, but have willfully turned their backs on it. The Evil Assumption has a longstand­ ing relationship with religion, where "unbeliever" is all but synonymous with "evildoer." But it is almost equally common in politics. In The Prelude, the poet William Wordsworth acidly described the French Revolution as a cause that, ostensibly, "no one could stand up against, I who was not lost, abandoned, selfish, proud, I mean, miserable, willfully depraved, I hater per­ verse of equity and truth." (Wordsworth was largely condemning his own doctrinaire past; the poem is subtitled Growth ofa Poet's Mind.) As those lines suggest, clashes of belief that engender violent conflict are especially good at provoking the Evil Assumption. And, conversely, the Evil Assumption is especially good at provoking violent conflict. (If beliefs have consequences, consider the likely consequences of believing that those who disagree with you are wicked.) But those who disagree with you don't have to reject your God or threaten your life for you to conclude that they are depraved. These

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days, you can't punch the scan button o n your radio without coming across an invocation of the Evil Assumption: hosts or guests or callers describing their ideological opponents as morally depraved reprobates bent on the de­ struction of civilization as we know it. That's quite a charge to lay at the feet of people who don't agree with us. And yet it has a certain dark logic, given our tendency to confuse our models of reality with reality itself. Think about the accusation that people who disagree with us "don't live in the real world." What we really mean is that they don't live in our model of the world; they don't share our vision of how things are. By failing to see the world as we do, they actually are un­ dermining its reality and threatening its destruction-at least, unto us. But, of course, we are doing the same to them. Implicitly or explicitly, we are denying that they possess the same intellectual and moral faculties that we do-and denying, too, the significance and value of their life experiences, from which, inevitably, many of their beliefs arise. Of these three assumptions-the Ignorance Assumption, the Idiocy As­ sumption, and the Evil Assumption-the last is the most disturbing. But the first is the most decisive. We assume that other people are ignorant because we assume that we are not; we think we know the facts, and (as the 'Cuz It's True Constraint mandates) we think those facts determine our beliefs. Put differently, we think the evidence is on our side. It is almost impossible to overstate the centrality of that conviction to everything this book is about, which is why we are going to turn next to the topic of evi­ dence. Our faith in our own reading of the facts undergirds our certainty that we are right, our shock when we turn out to be wrong, and our will­ ingness to deny the perspicacity, intelligence, and moral worth of everyone who disagrees with us. What is alarming is how naturally this cascade of assumptions comes to us-and not just to the extremists in our midst. I wouldn't character­ ize Alan Greenspan as a rabid ideologue, and I'd venture to guess that he doesn't routinely use the word "evil" to describe people who disagree with him about economic policy. But he did regard such people as dangerous, and (as countless real extremists have likewise done) he did seek to silence them.

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Those are not the actions of a man who has contemplated the possibility that his own model could be in error-or that, this time, his beliefs could be the dangerous ones. This is the grim flip side of our passion for inventing theories. Like toddlers and tyrants, we are quick to take our own stories for the infallible truth, and to dismiss as wrongheaded or wicked anyone who disagrees. These tendencies are most troubling for the way they fuel animosity and conflict. But they are also troubling because they make it extremely dif­ ficult to accept our own fallibility. If we assume that people who are wrong are ignorant, or idiotic, or evil-well, small wonder that we prefer not to confront the possibility of error in ourselves.

6.

O u r M i n d s , P a rt T h re e : Ev i d e n ce

RosENCRANTZ: That must be east, then. I think we can assume that. GuiLDENSTERN: I'm assuming nothing. RosENCRANTZ: No, it's all right. That's the sun. East. GuiLDENSTERN (looks up): Where? RosENCRANTZ: I watched it come up. GuiLDENSTERN: No . . . it was light all the time, you see, and you opened your eyes very, very slowly. If you'd been facing back there, you'd be swearing that was east. -To M SToPPARD, RosENCRANTZ A ND G uJL DENSTERN A R E DEA D

In 1692 , Judge William Stoughton, one of the most venerable lawmakers in Colonial America, found himself facing an unusual procedural question: Should visitations by evil spirits be admitted as evidence in a court of law? Stoughton was presiding over the Salem witch trials and-unfortunately for the 1 $0 people who were imprisoned and the nineteen who were hanged by

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the end of the ordeal-he determined that such evidence was permissible. If you had been alive at the time, and dreamed one night that the ill-fated Goody Proctor was in your bedroom attempting to throttle you, you could have presented your dream as evidence before the court-"as though there was no real difference between G. Proctor and the shape of G. Proctor," in the disapproving words of a contemporary observer. It is a testament to how far the legal profession has come that few things seem more antithetical to the spirit of justice today than the admission of so-called spectral evidence. Yet the questions Stoughton faced remain cen­ tral to the practice of law. What counts as evidence? How must it be gath­ ered? Under what circumstances is it admissible? How do certain kinds of evidence compare to other kinds? How much weight should be given to each? How we answer these questions goes a long way toward determining whether justice will be served. Indeed, the fair and consistent practice oflaw hinges, to a huge degree, on developing a fair and consistent relationship to evidence. (We have names for situations where that relationship doesn't exist or is disregarded, and one of them is "witch trial.") What is true within the law is also true far beyond it. Although we seldom think of it this way, evidence is immensely central to our lives. We rely on it in science to expand our technological capacity and advance our understanding of the world. We rely on it in journalism to keep us accu­ rately informed and to hold individuals and institutions accountable for their actions. We rely on it in politics to determine which laws to pass, which policies to implement, and which wars to fight. And we rely on it in medicine to sustain our health and save our lives. These are all public institutions, and, like the law, they have all devel­ oped specific and formal ideas about evidence-what kind of information qualifies, how to gather it, how to evaluate it. But evidence is also central to the private, non-institutional entity that is each of us. We know .from the last chapter that we can't function without our beliefs, that they tell us where we are, who we are, and what to do next. But these beliefs don't come to us willy-nilly. We form them, as judges form their ,opinions and juries reach their decisions, based on the evidence. Of course, we don't necessarily form accurate beliefs based on good evidence. As we've already

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seen, I'm perfectly capable o f forming very iffy notions about string theory based on very scanty secondhand information, and Hannah was perfectly capable of concluding that she could see based on faulty signals from her own brain. In other words, the same goes for us as for the law: how well we gather and evaluate evidence determines how fair or unfair, right or wrong our theories will be. An article in the paper, a weird smell in the basement, the look on your mother's face, your own gut intuition-everything that registers on the sensitive machinery of your brain must be counted in favor of or against your beliefs. In a perfect world, how would we go about evaluating all this evidence? As it turns out, we have fairly strong and uniform opinions about this. By rough consensus, the ideal thinker approaches a subject with a neutral mind, gathers as much evidence as possible, assesses it coolly, and draws conclusions accordingly. By a further rough consensus, this is not only how we should form our beliefs, but how we actually do so. To quote Rebecca Saxe, the neuroscientist from the previous chapter, "we share the convic­ tion that, in general, beliefs follow from relatively dispassionate assessment of facts-of-the-matter and logical reasoning." This model of how our minds work is a significant step up from naive realism. Instead of thinking, as toddlers do, that the world is exactly as we perceive it, we recognize that we only perceive certain bits of it-pieces of evidence-and that therefore our understanding might be incomplete or misleading. Unlike naive realism, then, this model of cognition makes room for error. At the same time, it contains an implicit corrective: the more evi­ dence we compile, and the more thoroughly and objectively we evaluate it, the more accurate our beliefs will be. In this vein, Descartes defined error not as believing something that isn't true, but as believing something based on insufficient evidence. That definition of error has, at first glance, the virtue of being practical. You can't very well caution people against believing things that aren't true, since, as we've seen, all of us necessarily think our beliefs are true. By com­ parison, it seems both easy and advisable to caution people against ·b elieving things without sufficient evidence. But this idea quickly runs into trouble. First, how are we supposed to know when a body of evidence crosses the

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threshold from "insufficient" to "sufficient"? Second, what are we supposed to do in situations where additional evidence is not necessarily forthcom­ ing? Augustine, who arrived at Descartes' idea of error some 1 ,200 years earlier, rejected it when he perceived these problems, and in particular their theological implications. If you encourage people to withhold assent from any proposition that lacks sufficient evidence, he realized, you are inevitably encouraging them to withhold assent from God: Augustine needn't have worried. You can urge people not to believe anything based on meager evidence until you are blue in the face, but you will never succeed-because, as it turns out, believing things based on meager evidence is what people do. I don't mean that we do this occasion­ ally: only when we are thinking sloppily, say, or only if we don't know any better, or only en route to screwing up. I mean that believing things based on paltry evidence is the engine that drives the entire miraculous machin­ ery of human cognition. Descartes was right to fear that this way of thinking would cause us to make mistakes; it does. Since he was interested in knowing the truth, and knowing that he knew it, he tried to develop a model of thinking that could curtail the possibility of error. (We'll hear more about his model later.) In fact, curtailing error was the goal of most models of optimal human cogni­ tion proposed by most thinkers throughout most of history, and it is the goal behind our own broadly shared image of the ideal thinker. Some of * Monotheistic religions have a particularly interesting and troubled relationship to the idea of evidence. Belief in God is explicitly supposed to be based on faith, not proof: "Blessed are they who have not seen and yet have believed," Jesus says to doubting Thomas inJohn 2 0 : 2 9. Yet the devout have tried to muster evidence for their beliefs since time immemorial. The shroud of Turin is cited as proof of]esus' crucifixion, weeping statues of the Virgin Mary serve to substantiate her holiness, the Catholic Church has a formal process for verifying miracles as evidence of God's work, and-before modern science made the claim untenable-volcanoes, hot springs, and geothermal vents were cited as evidence of the existence of hell. More generally, the whole remarkable sweep of creation, from the human eye to the shells on a beach, is often cited as evidence of God the creator. This religious relationship to evidence might be inconsistent, but it isn't surprising. As I suggest at the end of this chapter, we all recognize the value of evidence in grounding our beliefs, and we'd all just as soon have it on our side.

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these models, like Descartes', sought to curtail error through radical doubt. Others sought to curtail it through formal logic-using valid premises to derive necessarily valid conclusions. Others, including our shared one of the ideal thinker, seek to curtail it through a kind of general due diligence: careful attention to evidence and counterevidence, coupled with a prudent avoidance of preconceived notions. By these standards, the cognitive operating system we actually come with is suboptimal. It has no use for radical doubt. It does not rely on formal logic. It isn't diligent about amassing evidence, still less so about counterevidence, and it couldn't function without preconceived notions. It is eminently capable of getting things wrong. In short, our mind, in its de­ fault mode, doesn't work anything like any of these models. And yet-not despite but because of its aptitude for error-it works better than them all.

Here, I'm going to prove it to you. Actually, I'm going to getyou to prove it to me. Below you will find a very brief multiple-choice test. Please take it. If you still have that four-year-old handy from the last chapter, have her take it, too. You can reassure her that these aren't meant to be trick questions, so neither of you should overthink anything. Here goes:

1.

W h a t i s be h i n d t h e s h a d e d recta n g l e?

B. I have no i d e a .

2.

You a re t rave l i n g i n the c o u n t ry o f Q u i n e . A speaker of Q u i n e a n s h ows you t h i s p i c t u re a n d says, " T h i s i s a Gava g a i ." W h a t i s a Gava g a i ?

A. A ra b b i t .

B . H ow s h o u l d I k n ow?

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3.

C o m p l ete t h e fo l l o w i n g sentence: "The g i raffe had a v e r y l o n g

A. N e c k

.

___ "

B. I ' m stumped.

Congratulations; you got all three answers right. You also found this quiz so easy that you don't think congratulations are called for. But here's the thing: this quiz is not easy. At least, it is not intrinsically easy. True, you could do it, and so can I, and so can any reasonably attentive four-year-old. Yet computers-which can calculate pi out to a thousand digits while you sneeze-are completely stymied by problems like these. So here is a non­ easy question for you: Why is something that is so effortless for a person all but impossible for a machine? To get a sense of the answer, consider just a tiny fraction of the possibili­ ties a computer has to contemplate when taking this quiz":

1.

W h a t i s b e h i n d t h e s h a d ed recta n g l e?

B.

� ,.

C. n u d e p i c t u res of L i ndsay Lohan

* The overall concept of this quiz and its second question come from the philosopher Willard Van Orman Quine, who worked on, among other things, language and episte­ mology. Imagine that a field linguist who is trying to translate an unknown language watches as a native speaker points to a rabbit and says "gavagai." The natural conclusion would be that "gavagai" means "rabbit"-but, Quine pointed out, it could also mean, "let's go hunting" or "there's a storm coming" or any number of other things. Quine called this problem "the indeterminacy of translation."

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2.

P7

You a re t rave l i n g i n t h e co u n t ry o f Q u i ne. A speaker of Q u i n e a n s h ows you t h i s p i c t u re a n d says, "Th i s i s a Gavaga i . " W h a t i s a Gavag a i ?

A. g rass

3.

B. ra b b i t plus g rass

C . d i n n er

Com p l ete t h e fol l ow i n g sentence: "The g i raffe h a d a very long

A. t o n g u e

B. fl i g h t from Kenya

.

___ "

C . h i story of d ru g a b u s e

These answers strike us as patently absurd. But computers don't have a patent-absurdity monitoring function; they can't rule out these answers (or millions of others like them) because nothing in logic prevents such answers from being right. For that matter, nothing in life prevents such answers from being right, either. It is perfectly possible that someone, somewhere­ a zookeeper, a veterinarian, a children's book author, someone enjoying a long history of drug abuse-has uttered a sentence about a giraffe's long flight from Kenya. Likewise, it is perfectly possible (although perhaps less probable than some readers would like) that there are naked pictures of Lindsay Lohan behind that shaded rectangle. For that matter, it's perfectly possible that there is a naked picture of you behind that rectangle-or of one of the other 7 billion people on the planet, or two pictures of three people, or ten pictures of seven people, or . . . you get the point: there are an infinite number of logically valid, theoretically possible answers to all these questions. Computers recognize this, and therefore can't answer the questions at all. Human beings, on the other hand, have no trouble answering these questions, because we don't care about what is logically valid and theoreti­ cally possible. We care about what is probable. We determine what is prob­ able based on our prior experience of the world, which is where evidence comes in: we choose the most likely answer to any given question based on

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the kinds of things we have (and haven't) experienced in comparable situa­ tions before. Over the course of our lifetimes, we've observed some things about giraffes, sentences, and sentences about giraffes, and based on those observations, we make an educated guess about this particular sentence concerning this particular giraffe. Significantly, it doesn't matter how much we've observed about sentences and giraffes. Unlike Descartes, we aren't in­ terested in whether we have ample evidence to support a given conclusion­ which is just as well, since, as the computer's conundrum shows, we almost certainly do not. All we're interested in is whether whatever evidence we do have supports one conclusion better than another. That's why four-year­ aids can answer this question, despite their comparatively limited experi­ ence with sentences and (one assumes) even more limited experience with giraffes. This strategy of guessing based on past experience is known as induc­ tive reasoning. As we've seen, inductive reasoning makes us vastly better than computers at solving problems like the ones in this quiz. But it also makes people like Descartes nervous, because it means that our beliefs are not necessarily true. Instead, they are probabilistically true. This point was made (and made famous) by the philosopher David Hume, who was argu­ ably the first thinker to fully grasp both the import and the limitation of inductive reasoning. To borrow his much-cited example: How can I be sure that all swans are white if I myself have seen only a tiny fraction of all the swans that have ever existed? If the world were always uniform, consistent, and predictable, I could trust that I am right about this induction (and about all inductions). Unfortunately, as Hume noted, nothing in logic requires the world to be that way, and we know from experience that it isn't always so. I can keep my eyes open for more white swans, but no matter how many I spot, I'll only be adding to my body of evidence, rather than actually prov­ ing something about the necessary color scheme of swans. In other words, inductions are necessarily impossible to substantiate. We can know that they are wrong-as Hume's example turned out to be, when a species of black swan was discovered in Australia after his death-but we can't know that they are right. All we know is that they are at least somewhat more likely to be right than the next best guess we could make.

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When it comes to multiple-choice quizzes, we are all comfortable with the idea that we make the best guess we can based on whatever evidence we already have. We ought to be, since we've been doing so since grade school. But our use of inductive reasoning isn't limited to that kind of low-stakes situation. On the contrary: psychologists and neuroscientists increasingly think that inductive reasoning undergirds virtually all of human cognition. You make best guesses based on your cumulative exposure to the evidence every day, both unconsciously (as when the motor fibers in your arm esti­ mate where to swing for a baseball) and consciously (as when you bet against the Red Sox, and on the best time to tell your partner how much you lost on that bet). This kind of guesswork is also how you learned almost everything you know about the world. Take language. Your parents didn't teach you to talk by sitting you down and explaining that English is a subject-verb-object language, that most verbs are converted to the past tense by adding the suffix "-ed," that adjectives generally go before the nouns they modify, and so forth. Mercifully for everyone involved, they didn't have to. All they had to do was keep on chatting about how Mommy poured the milk and Laura painted a pretty picture, and you figured it out by yourself-where "it" is, amazingly, the entire complex grammatical infrastructure of the English language. Not only that, but you did the bulk of this work between birth and four years of age, and you did it despite having heard only the tiniest fraction of all the possible words and combinations of words our language permits.' If there is a better rebuttal to Descartes' claim that we should *

One reason the great linguist Noam Chomsky thought language learning must be

innate is that the entire corpus of spoken language (never mind the subset spoken to children under four) doesn't seem to contain enough evidence to learn all of gram­ mar. He called this problem "the poverty of the stimulus." In particular, he pointed out, children never hear examples of grammatical structures that aren't permissible in their language, such as "Mommy milk poured" or "picture pretty painted Laura." This raises the question of how kids know such structures aren't permissible, since, in formal logic, never hearing such sentences wouldn't mean that they don't exist. (As logicians say, lack of evidence is not evidence of a lack.) But if we learn language inductively, the poverty of the stimulus might not be a problem after all. It's a good bet that if you've been paying attention to language for four years and you've never heard a certain

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avoid drawing sweeping conclusions from scanty evidence, I'm not sure what it is. There are certainly other rebuttals, though, because language isn't the only crucial skill you learned this way. You also used inductive reasoning to learn how to divide the world into categories and kinds-which is why you were somehow able to grasp the concept of "dog" based on a sample popu­ lation consisting solely of, say, a golden retriever, a shih tzu, and Scooby Doo. Likewise, you used inductive reasoning to learn about the relation­ ships between causes and effects. Just as no one had to teach you the general principles of grammar or the general principles of dogginess, no one had to teach you that, say, lights are usually turned on by flipping switches. You just saw it happen a few times, and in very short order, the relationship be­ tween switches and lights was cemented in your mind. (As an adult, if you're standing around indoors and a light suddenly goes on, you'll immediately look around to see who flipped the switch.) What is true of physical causes and effects is also true of biological and emotional causation. Thanks to inductive reasoning, we are able to deter­ mine very quickly that experiencing a strange itchy sensation in our nose means that we are about to sneeze, and that using the F word makes Mom angry. As the latter example suggests, induction is central to how we learn about people, including ourselves. Indeed, much of psychoanalytic theory is based on the belief that our earliest interactions with a tiny number of people permanently shape our theories about who we are, what other people are like, and what kind of treatment we can expect to receive throughout our lives. Language, categorization, causality, psychology: without expertise in these domains, we would be sunk. And without inductive reasoning-the capacity to reach very big conclusions based on very little data-we would never gain that expertise. However slapdash it might initially seem, this best-guess style of reasoning is critical to human intelligence. In fact, these

grammatical form before, you are never going to hear it. Inductively, lack of evidence actually is evidence of a lack.

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days, inductive reasoning is the leading candidate for actually being human intelligence. But score a point for Descartes: inductive reasoning also makes us fun­ damentally, unavoidably fallible. As I said, the distinctive thing about the conclusions we draw through induction is that they are probabilistically true-which means that they are possibly false. The theory that you should add the suffix "-ed" in order to form a past-tense verb is a brilliant induc­ tive inference. It is largely correct, it teaches you a huge number of words in one fell swoop, and it's a lot less painful (not to mention a lot more pos­ sible) than separately memorizing the past tense of every single verb in the English language. But it also means that sooner or later you are going to say things like drinked and thinked and bringed and runned. Those are trivial errors, and eventually overcome. As we are about to see, however, inductive reasoning is also responsible for some very non-trivial, deeply entrenched mistakes. Before we look at those specific errors, I want to return briefly to error in general. If the goal of this book is to urge us to rethink our relationship to wrongness, inductive reasoning makes it plain why we should do so. We tend to think of mistakes as the consequence of cognitive sloppiness-of taking shortcuts, cutting corners, jumping to conclusions. And, in fact, we

do take shortcuts, cut corners, and jump to conclusions. But thinking of these tendencies as problems suggests that there are solutions: a better way to evaluate the evidence, some viable method for reaching airtight verdicts about the world. Yet we've already seen what it takes to thoroughly evaluate evidence and reach airtight verdicts. It takes memorizing tens of thousands of separate past-tense verbs. It takes sitting around wondering about the giraffe's long something-or-other until you've run out of time on the test­ and on all of life's other, figurative tests, too. So, yes, there are other ways to reason about the world, but those other ways aren't better. The system we have is better. The system we have is astonishing. This is the lesson we learned with optical illusions, and it is the funda­ mental lesson of inductive reasoning as well: our mistakes are part and parcel of our brilliance, not the regrettable consequences of a separate and deplor-

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able process. Our options in life are not careful logical reasoning, through which we get things right, versus shoddy inductive reasoning, through which we get things wrong. Our options are inductive reasoning, which probably gets things right, and inductive reasoning, which-because it probably gets things right-sometimes gets things wrong. In other words, and appropri­ ately enough, Descartes was half right. Believing something on the basis of messy, sparse, limited information really is how we err. But it is also how we think. What makes us right is what makes us wrong.

That's the good news. The bad news is that inductive reasoning doesn't just sometimes make us wrong. It makes us wrong in ways that are a complete embarrassment to our self-image as clear-eyed, fair-minded, conscientious, reasonable thinkers. Take a story that was told to me by a man named Donald Leka. Back in 1978, when his two children were in elementary school, Don volunteered to help out at a PTA fundraiser. In the interest of earning a laugh as well as some money, he set up a booth advertising legal advice for 25 cents-a sort of lawyerly version of Lucy's advice booth in Peanuts. The booth was obvi­ ously something of a jest, but as a responsible lawyer, Don was careful to staff it with practicing members of the bar. So he was alarmed to learn that a guest had gotten legal advice about a healthcare issue not from a colleague who was among those appointed to give such advice, a man named Jim, but from Jim's wife. "I grew quite concerned," Don recollected, "because even though this was lighthearted, I didn't want people's wives just going around giving advice. As soon as I could, I located Jim and told him what his wife was doing"-at which point, Jim informed Don that his wife was general counsel of the largest HMO in the city. Needless to say, this story is cringe inducing. Also needless to say, the person who has cringed the most is Don, who chalked up his mistake to "ignorant sexism" and still winces about it today. But the reason we make mistakes like this isn't just ignorant sexism. It is also because of the pitfalls of inductive reasoning. Even in 2007, when Don told me this story, only a quarter of the lawyers in the United States were women. In the 1970s, the

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figure was in the low single digits, and Dan's experiences bore that out. When he graduated from Harvard Law in 1967, twenty-six of his 525 class­ mates were women-just over 5 percent. When he took his first job, he had one female colleague out of twenty-three lawyers-just under 5 percent. In Dan's experience, 95 percent of lawyers were male. Most of us would be willing to put some money on 95 percent odds, and in essence that's what happened at the PTA event. Unbeknownst to Don, his brain crunched the numbers and made a bet. As it happened, that bet bit him in the butt. But, for good or for ill, it wasn't a bad bet-just a wrong one. This is the problem with the guesswork that underlies our cognitive system. When it works well (and, as we've seen, overall it works better than anything else around), it makes us fast, efficient thinkers capable of re­ markable intellectual feats. But, as with so many systems, the strengths of inductive reasoning are also its weaknesses. For every way that induction I

serves us admirably, it also creates a series of predictable biases in the way we think. It was Donald Leka's misfortune to illustrate one of these inductive biases: leaping to conclusions. Actually, as I noted above, leaping to conclu­ sions is what we always do in inductive reasoning, but we generally only call it that when the process fails us-that is, when we leap to wrong conclu­ sions. In those instances, our habit of relying on meager evidence, normally so clever, suddenly looks foolish (and makes us look foolish, too). That's bad enough, but Dan's story also showcases a more specific and disturb­ ing aspect of this bias. Since the whole point of inductive reasoning is to draw sweeping assumptions based on limited evidence, it is an outstanding machine for generating stereotypes. Think about the magnitude of the ex­ trapolation involved in going from "This swan is white" to "All swans are white." In context, it seems unproblematic, but now try this: "This Mus­ lim is a terrorist"; "All Muslims are terrorists." Suddenly, induction doesn't seem so benign. If the stereotypes we generate based on small amounts of evidence could be overturned by equally small amounts of counterevidence, this particular feature of inductive reasoning wouldn't be terribly worrisome. A counterexample or two would give the lie to false and pernicious gener-

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alizations, and we would amend or reject our beliefs accordingly. But this is the paradox of inductive reasoning: although small amounts of evidence are sufficient to make us draw conclusions, they are seldom sufficient to make us revise them. Consider, for instance, a second story, this one told to me by a woman named Elizabeth O'Donovan. Once, many years ago, Elizabeth got into an argument with a friend about whether Orion is a winter constellation. (Because of the annual rotation of the earth around the sun, most constel­ lations are visible only at certain times of the year.) Elizabeth emphatically insisted that it was not. "The embarrassing part," she told me, "is that at the time that I was doing all this insisting, my friend and I were standing in a parking lot in December and I had just pointed to the sky and said, 'That's weird. Orion shouldn't be out now; it's a summer constellation."' You might think that gazing directly at evidence that contradicted her claim would have given Elizabeth pause, but it did not. Instead, the ar­ gument escalated until she bet her friend that he was wrong. The loser, they agreed, would take the winner out to dinner once a week for four weeks. "I was so damn determined," she recalled, "that I figured it was some sort of crazy astronomical phenomenon. My logic was something like, 'Well, everyone knows that every fifty-two years, Orion appears for eighteen months straight.' " As we'll see later, this kind of tortured theo­ rizing is typical of the crisis that ensues when new evidence challenges an entrenched theory. It's also a decent indicator that you are about to lose a bet. (For the record, Orion is visible in the night sky from roughly October through March, in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Elizabeth treated her friend to four weeks of fried chicken.) Elizabeth's story illustrates another of our inductive biases. This one is famous enough to have earned its own separate name in the psychological literature: confirmation bias. As you might guess, confirmation bias is the tendency to give more weight to evidence that confirms our beliefs than to evidence that challenges them. On the face of it, this sounds irrational (and sometimes looks it, as Elizabeth unwittingly demonstrated). In fact, though, confirmation bias is often entirely sensible. We hold our beliefs for a reason, after all-specifically, because we've already encountered other,

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earlier evidence that suggests that they are true. And, although this, too, can seem pigheaded, it's smart to put more stock in that earlier evidence than in whatever counterevidence we come across later. Remember how our beliefs are probabilistic? Probability theory tells us that the more com­ mon something is-long-necked giraffes, white swans, subject-verb-object sentences-the earlier and more often we will encounter it. As a result, it makes sense to treat early evidence preferentially. Still, however defensible confirmation bias might be, it deals another blow to our ideal thinker. That's the admirable soul we met earlier in this chapter, the one who gathers as much evidence as possible and assesses it neutrally before reaching a conclusion. We already saw inductive reasoning upend the first half of this ideal. We don't gather the maximum possible evidence in order to reach a conclusion; we reach the maximum possible conclusion based on the barest minimum of evidence. Now it turns out that inductive reasoning upends the second half as well. We don't assess evidence neutrally; we assess it in light of whatever theories we've already formed on the basis of whatever other, earlier evidence we have encountered. This idea was given its most influential treatment by Thomas Kuhn, the historian and philosopher of science, in his 1962 work The Structure of

Scientific Revolutions. Before Kuhn, scientists were generally regarded as the apotheosis of the above-mentioned ideal thinker. These epistemologically prudent souls were thought to opt for logic over guesswork, reject verifica­ tion (looking for white swans) in favor of falsification (looking for black swans), test their hypotheses extensively, collect and analyze evidence neu­ trally, and only then arrive at their theories. Kuhn challenged this notion, arguing that-among other problems with this model-it is impossible to do science in the absence of a preexisting theory. Kuhn didn't mean this as a criticism, or at least not only as a criticism. Without some kind of belief system in place, he posited, we wouldn't even know what kinds of questions to ask, let alone how to make sense of the answers. Far from freeing us up to regard the evidence neutrally, the ab­ sence of theories would render us unable to figure out what even counted as evidence, or what it should be counted as evidence for. Kuhn's great insight was that preexisting theories are necessary to the kind of inquiry that is the

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very essence of science. And the history of the field bears this out: science is full of examples of how faith in a theory has led people to the evidence, rather than evidence leading them to the theory. In the early nineteenth century, for instance, astronomers were puzzled by perturbations in the orbit of Uranus that seemed to contradict Newtonian mechanics. Because they weren't prepared to jettison Newton, they posited the existence of an unknown planet whose gravitational pull was affecting Uranus's path, and calculated that planet's necessary orbit around the sun. Guided by this work, later astronomers with better telescopes took a second look at the sky and, sure enough, discovered Neptune-less than one degree away from where the theorists had predicted it would be.' The discovery of Neptune is a crystalline illustration of Kuhn's point that theories represent the beginning of science as much as its endpoint. Theories tell us what questions to ask ("Why is Uranus's orbit out of whack?"), what kind of answers to look for ("Something really big must be exerting a gravitational pull on it.") and where to find them ("According to Newtonian calculations, that big thing must be over there."). They also tell us what not to look for and what questions not to ask, which is why those astronomers didn't bother looking for a giant intergalactic battleship warp­ ing Uranus's orbit instead. These are invaluable directives, prerequisite to doing science-or, for that matter, to doing much of anything. As Alan

*

This story about Neptune presents something of a challenge to my earlier claim that

tortured theorizing is often a sign of being on the losing end of a bet. Specifically, it suggests that tortured theories only seem tortured when they turn out to be wrong. If Neptune didn't exist, explaining away deviations in Uranus's orbit by positing a giant undiscovered planet in the outer reaches of the solar system would seem like a pretty desperate move. Or consider a still unresolved example: physicists currently think that 96 percent of all the matter and energy in the universe is invisible-so-called dark mat­ ter and dark energy. The virtue of this highly counterintuitive (not to say cockamamie) proposal is that it makes sense of scientific findings that would otherwise call into ques­ tion the theory of gravity. This is a classic example of extremely strong prior beliefs (we

really believe in gravity) trumping extremely strong counterevidence. It remains to be seen whether the dark-matter theory will ultimately seem as foolish as proposing that Orion loiters in the sky every fifty-two years or as prescient as predicting the existence of Neptune.

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Greenspan pointed out, during a moment in his congressional testimony when he seemed to be coming under fire for merely possessing a political ideology, "An ideology is a conceptual framework, the way people deal with reality. Everyone has one. You have to. To exist, you need an ideology." Greenspan was right. To exist, to deal with reality, we need a conceptual framework: theories that tell us which questions to ask and which ones not to, where to look and where not to bother. When that framework serves us well-when, say, it spares us the effort of asking what other kinds of long things a giraffe might possess, or taking seriously the proposition that behind a certain shaded rectangle we might encounter a certain naked movie star-we call it brilliant, and call it inductive reasoning. When it serves us poorly, we call it idiotic, and call it confirmation bias. As Elizabeth O'Donovan demonstrated, the effect of that bias-of viewing all evidence in light of the theories we already hold-is that we sometimes view the evidence very strangely indeed. Actually, Elizabeth showed us only one of the many faces of confirma­ tion bias. To see another one in action, consider a different story about astronomy, this one borrowed from Kuhn. In the West, until the mid­ fifteenth century, the heavens were thought to be immutable. This theory was part of a belief system that reigned far beyond the borders of science; the idea that the heavens were eternal and unchanging (in contrast to the inconsistency and impermanence of life on earth) was a cornerstone of pre-modern Christianity. But then Copernicus came along with his idea about the earth revolving around the sun, and the Church went reeling, and suddenly much of astronomy was up for grabs. In the fifty years imme­ diately following the Copernican revolution, Western astronomers began to observe changes in the heavens they had failed to notice for centuries: new stars appearing, others disappearing, sunspots flaring and fading out. In China, meanwhile, where the sky overhead was identical but the ideol­ ogy on the ground was different, astronomers had been recording such phenomena for at least 500 years. These early Western astronomers did Elizabeth O'Donovan one better. Instead of failing to believe the counter­ evidence, they literally failed to see it. Sometimes, by contrast, we see the counterevidence just fine-but,

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thanks to confirmation bias, we decide that it has no bearing on the valid­ ity of our beliefs. In logic, this tendency is known, rather charmingly, as the No True Scotsman fallacy. Let's say you believe that no Scotsman puts sugar in his porridge. I protest that my uncle, Angus McGregor of Glasgow, puts sugar in his porridge every day. "Aye," you reply, "but no true Scotsman puts sugar in his porridge." So much for my counterevidence-and so much the better for your belief. This is an evergreen rhetorical trick, especially in religion and politics. As everyone knows, no true Christian supports legalized abortion (or opposes it), no true follower of the Qur'an supports suicide bombings (or opposes them), no true Democrat supported the Iraq War (or opposed it) . . . et cetera. The Iraq War also provides a nice example of another form of confirma­ tion bias. At a point when conditions on the ground were plainly deterio­ rating, then-President George W. Bush argued otherwise by, in the words of the journalist George Packer, "interpreting increased violence in Iraq as a token of the enemy's frustration with American success." Sometimes, as Bush showed, we look straight at the counterevidence yet conclude that it supports our beliefs instead. The NASA higher-ups responsible for the space shuttle Columbia-which disintegrated upon reentry in 2003 , killing all seven astronauts onboard-demonstrated this as well: before the disas­ ter, they consistently claimed that previous damage to the space shuttle was proof of the aircraft's strength rather than evidence of a fatal design flaw. More generally, we all demonstrate it every time we insist that "the excep­ tion proves the rule." Think about the claim this adage is making: that a piece of acknowledged counterevidence weighs in favor of the hypothesis it appears to weigh against. The final form of confirmation bias I want to introduce is by far the most pervasive-and, partly for that reason, by far the most troubling. On the face of it, though, it seems like the most benign, because it requires no active shenanigans on our part-no refusal to believe the evidence, like Elizabeth O'Donovan, no dismissal of its relevance, like the stubborn Scotsman, no co-opting of it, like George Bush. Instead, this form of confirmation bias is entirely passive: we simply fail to look for any information that could contra­ dict our beliefs. The sixteenth-century scientist, philosopher, and statesman

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Francis Bacon called this failure "the greatest impediment and aberration of the human understanding," and it's easy to see why. As we know, only the black swans can tell us anything definitive about our beliefs-and yet, we persistently fail to seek them out. Two of my favorite examples of this form of confirmation bias come from the wonderfully evidence-resistant realm of early anatomy and physi­ ology. The first is the traditional Judea-Christian belief that women had one more rib than men (Adam having furnished one for the making of Eve). This belief somehow survived until 1 543 , when the Flemish anatomist An­ dreas Vesalius finally showed otherwise-by, you know, counting. The sec­ ond includes just about every claim ever made by Pliny the Elder, a Roman scientist and author who lived in the first century AD. Pliny was, arguably, the most influential misinformed man in history, a veritable Johnny Apple­ seed of bad ideas. Consider his thoughts on menstruation, as recorded in his supposed masterpiece, the scientific omnibus Natura/is Historia: On the approach of a woman in this state, milk will become sour, seeds which are touched by her become sterile, grafts wither away, garden plants are parched up, and the fruit will fall from the tree beneath which she sits. Her very look, even, will dim the brightness of mirrors, blunt the edge of steel, and take away the polish from ivory. A swarm of bees, if looked upon by her, will die immediately; . . . while dogs which may have tasted of the matter so discharged are seized with madness, and their bite is venomous and incurable.

Surely it wouldn't have been hard to run a quick experiment on that one. And yet, until the stirrings of the S cientific Revolution, no one thought to go looking for evidence that might contradict the prevailing medical beliefs of 1 ,500 years. As perverse as they may seem, these many forms of creatively dodg­ ing the counterevidence represent a backhanded tribute to its importance. However much we ignore, deny, distort, or misconstrue it, evidence con­ tinues to matter to us, enormously. In fact, we ignore, deny, distort, and

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misconstrue evidence because it matters to us. We know that it i s the coin of the epistemological realm: that if we expect our beliefs to seem credible, we will have to furnish their grounds. In a sense, this is the positive side of the 'Cuz It's True Constraint. If we think we hold our beliefs because they comport with the evidence, we must also think that we will revise them when new evidence arises. As a consequence, every proposition, no matter how much we might initially resist it, must have an evidentiary threshold somewhere, a line beyond which disbelief passes over into belief. If you show up on my doorstep with a spaceship and a small green friend and we all fly off to Pluto together, I will commence believing in UFOs. Closer to home, we see evidentiary thresholds being crossed all the time. That's how belief in geocentrism-once the most radical of conjectures-came to be taken for granted, and how a global consensus is emerging on climate change, and how Elizabeth O'Donovan eventually accepted that Orion is a winter constellation. But we also see evidentiary thresholds not being crossed-sometimes for centuries, as in the case of Pliny's medical theories. As powerful as confir­ mation bias is, it cannot fully account for this: for the persistence and dura­ tion with which we sometimes fail to accept evidence that could alter our theories. Another factor is the claim, implicit or explicit in many belief sys­ tems, that attending to counterevidence can be dangerous-to your health or family or nation, to your moral fiber or your mortal soul. (As a European Communist once said in response to the question of whether he had read any of the criticisms of Communism, "A man does not sip a bottle of cya­ nide just to find out what it tastes like.") Confirmation bias is also bolstered by the fact that looking for counterevidence often requires time, energy, learning, liberty, and sufficient social capital to weather the suspicion and derision of defenders of the status quo. If the dominant theory works to your detriment, odds are those are resources you don't possess. (Imagine the average medieval woman trying to take on Pliny.) And if the dominant theory works to your advantage, or at least leaves you unscathed-well, why bother challenging it? As all this suggests, our relationship to evidence is seldom purely a cog-

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nitive one. Vilifying menstruating women, bolstering anti-Muslim stereo­ types, murdering innocent citizens of Salem: plainly, evidence is almost invariably a political, social, and moral issue as well. To take a particularly stark example, consider the case of Albert Speer, minister of armaments and war production during the Third Reich, close friend to Adolf Hitler, and the highest-ranking Nazi official ever to express remorse for his actions. In his memoir, Inside the Third Reich, Speer candidly addressed his failure to look for evidence of what was happening around him. "I did not query [a friend who told him not to visit Auschwitz] , I did not query Rimmler, I did not query Hitler," he wrote. "I did not speak with personal friends. I did not investigate-for I did not want to know what was happening there . . . for fear of discovering something which might have made me turn away from my course. I had closed my eyes." Judge William Stoughton of Salem, Massachusetts, became complicit in injustice and murder by accepting evidence he should have ignored. Albert Speer became complicit by ignoring evidence he should have accepted. To­ gether, they show us some of the gravest possible consequences of misman­ aging the data around us-and the vital importance of learning to manage it better. It is possible to do this: like the U. S. legal system, we as individu­ als can develop a fairer and more consistent relationship to evidence over time. By indirection, Speer himself shows us how to begin. I did not query, he wrote. I did not speak. I did not investigate. I closed my eyes. These are sins of omission, sins of passivity; and they suggest, correctly, that if we want to improve our relationship to evidence, we must take a more active role in how we think-must, in a sense, take the reins of our own minds. To do this, we must query and speak and investigate and open our eyes. Specifically, and crucially, we must learn to actively combat our inductive biases: to deliberately seek out evidence that challenges our beliefs, and to take seriously such evidence when we come across it. One person who rec­ ognized the value of doing this was Charles Darwin. In his autobiography, he recalled that, "I had, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of

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it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from the memory than favorable ones." You don't need to be one of history's greatest scientists to combat your inductive biases. Remembering to attend to counterevidence isn't difficult; it is simply a habit of mind. But, like all habits of mind, it requires conscious cultivation. Without that, the first evidence we encounter will remain the last word on the truth. That's why, as we are about to see, so many of our strongest beliefs are de�ermined by mere accidents of fate: where we were born, what our parents believed, what other information shaped us from our earliest days. Once that initial evidence takes hold, we are off and run­ ning. No matter how skewed or scanty it may be, it will form the basis for all our future beliefs. Inductive reasoning guarantees as much. And it guarantees, too, that we will find plenty of data to support us, and precious little to contradict us. And that, in turn, all but guarantees that our theories will be very, very difficult to fell.

7.

O u r S o c i et y

Our faith is faith in some one else's faith, and in the greatest matters this is most the case. -WI L L I A M ]A M E S , " TH E WI L L

TO

B E L I EV E "

Here is Switzerland-that bastion of political stability, military neutral­ ity, excellent chocolate, and hyper-accurate clocks-and here is a startling fact about it. Although it is one of the world's oldest and most established democracies, women there were not allowed to vote until 197 1 . By the standards o f other democratic nations, this is, needless to say, stunningly retrograde. Women were enfranchised in New Zealand in 1 893, in Finland in 1906, in Austria, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, and Po­ land in 1918, and in the United States in 1920. Even France and Italy, al­ though rather late to the party themselves, extended the vote to women by the end of the Second World War. Within a few years, Argentina, Japan, Mexico, and Pakistan had followed suit. By 197 1 , Switzerland was one of

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just a tiny handful of nations where women remained disenfranchised; the others included Bangladesh, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Samoa, and Iraq. Unlike those countries, Switzerland has long been a world leader with respect to other global benchmarks: per capita income and employment, political stability and personal liberties, healthcare, education, and literacy (including for girls and women), and overall quality of life. How, then, did it come to be an island of dissent on the issue of women's suffrage? More broadly, how does membership in a community-whether it is as large as a nation or as small as a neighborhood-influence our beliefs about the world? And why does sharing a beliefwith others sometimes make us virtu­ ally immune to outside opinion that we are wrong? Switzerland didn't start off seeming particularly exceptional on the issue of women's rights. As in most developed nations, the struggle for suffrage there began in the late 1800s and gained momentum after the turn of the century. But somewhere along the line, while suffragists elsewhere were chalking up a steady stream of victories, Switzerland started drifting away from the emerging Western consensus on the political equality of women. This was evident as early as 1929, when the prominent U. S. suffragist Carrie Chapman Catt chided her friends across the Atlantic for being "behind the times." She could not understand, she said, "why the men and the women of Switzerland do not follow the example of all the rest of the world." Catt, who died in 1947, would be left wondering for the rest of her days. A proposal for women's suffrage didn't even make it onto the national ballot in Switzerland until 1959, thirty years after her remarks, and it was soundly defeated-67 percent to 3 1 percent. There was, however, a glim­ mer of hope amid that trouncing: for the first time, a Swiss canton-Vaud, in the southwest part of the country-extended local voting rights to its female citizens. Within a few years, other cantons (there are twenty-six in all) began to follow suit. This was a welcome development for suffragists, but also one that led to a certain amount of absurdity. In Switzerland, the cantons determine who can vote in local and cantonal elections, while the federal govern­ ment decides who can vote on national initiatives and referendums. That power-sharing arrangement worked just fine until significant discrepancies

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started to develop between national and cantonal voting rights-such that, for instance, Lise Girardin, who became the first female mayor of Geneva in 1968, was allowed to run the nation's second largest city but not allowed

to vote in national elections. The same year that Girardin took office, another event galvanized the long-suffering Swiss suffrage movement. For the first time, Switzerland in­ dicated its willingness to sign the eighteen-year-old European Convention on Human Rights-but only if the nation was granted an exemption from those sections that extended political rights to women. Outrage over this proposed caveat led suffragists to organize the March on Bern, one of the very few large-scale national protests in the history of the Swiss suffrage movement. Whether because of the momentum created by the Human Rights Con­ vention kerfuffle, because of the increasingly untenable disparity between cantonal and federal voting rights, or simply because of the times-even famously neutral, isolationist Switzerland wasn't immune to the social revo­ lutions taking place around the world in the 1960s and '70s-the days of an all-male Swiss electorate were numbered. On February 7, 197 1 , the matter was put to vote again, and this time, the men of Switzerland decided that their female compatriots deserved the ballot. The final tally was 66 per­ cent in favor to 34 percent against-a near-exact reversal of the outcome in 1959. But the story doesn't end there. Communities come in all sizes, and if the collective national community of Switzerland decided in 197 1 that it was wrong to exclude women from the vote, the same could not be said of all the smaller communities that together comprise the nation. After the federal referendum passed, most of the cantons that still barred women from voting at the local and cantonal levels amended their laws as well. But two cantons held out. One of these was Appenzell Ausserrhoden, whose male citizens didn't extend the vote to women until 1989. The other was Appenzell Innerrhoden, whose male citizens never did so. Women there gained the right to vote only when the Swiss Supreme Court finally forced the issue-ironically, to comply with a federal Equal Rights Amendment that was by then on the books. That was in 1990. On average across the

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Lasst uns aus dem Spiel !

Frauenstimmrecht

Nein Abii nderung des Gesetzes Ober das Gemeindewesen im Kanton Bem Aktionskomitee gegen das Frauenstimmrecht

A 1968

poster o p p o s i n g w o m e n ' s r i g h t to vote i n Sw itze r l a n d . T h e text a bove t h e i m a g e

r e a d s " Leave u s ou t of i t ! " T h e t e x t b e l o w s a y s " Wo m e n ' s S u ffra g e N o . "

globe, the women of any given nation have had to wait forty-seven years longer for the right to vote than their male compatriots. In Switzerland, where male citizens began gathering in town squares for public balloting in 1291, universal suffrage took exactly seven centuries." Today in the developed world, the idea that women should be allowed

*

Even by a far more conservative estimate, dating only to the establishment of Swit­

zerland's modern federal constitution in 1 848, the nation smashes the global average at 143 years. The only women in the world who waited longer for the right to vote than those of the Appenzells were those of Kazakhstan (1992) and Kuwait (2005), and the black women of South Africa (1994). Then there are the women of Saudi Arabia, who are still waiting.

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to vote is about as uncontroversial a political claim as you can make. The fact that resistance to it lingered for so long anywhere in the West-let alone in prosperous, educated, democratic Switzerland-serves as a striking reminder that even those beliefs we take to be self-evident can vary aston­ ishingly from one community to the next. That, in turn, raises a troubling question about the very nature of belief. All of us like to think that our ideas about the world are, if not necessarily right, at least fundamentally striving toward rightness. What does it mean, then, that those ideas so often shift not with the available evidence but, like language or currency or speed limits, with the mere crossing of a border?

In 1267, a quarter-century before those first members of the Swiss confed­ eracy began casting their ballots, the English philosopher and friar Roger Bacon sent Pope Clement IV a book about error. Actually, the book was about nearly everything (appropriately titled Opus Majus, its subject matter ranged from theology and philosophy to linguistics, optics, and the manu­ facture of gunpowder), but it opened with a discussion about why people get things wrong. To Bacon's mind, all error could be chalked up to just four problems, which he called (rather charmingly, to English speakers)

offendicula: impediments or obstacles to truth. One of those obstacles was a kind of thirteenth-century version of Modern Jackass: the tendency to cover up one's own ignorance with the pretense of knowledge. Another was the persuasive power of authority. A third was blind adherence to custom, and the last was the influence of popular opinion. I have been writing, up until now, as if both our beliefs and our errors were the products of individual minds interacting independently with the external world-through perception, inductive reasoning, and so forth. But of Roger Bacon's four offendicula, three pertain unambiguously not to cognitive processes but to social ones: to the riot of wrongness that can ensue when a whole bunch of minds get together. This assessment of why we make mistakes was echoed, three hundred-odd years later, by Francis Bacon (something of a spiritual heir to Roger, but otherwise no relation). For Francis Bacon, too, there were four major sources of human error,

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which he called the four idols. The idol of the Tribe roughly corresponds to the terrain I covered in the last three chapters: universal, species-wide cognitive habits that can lead us into error. The idol of the Cave refers to chauvinism-the tendency to distrust or dismiss all peoples and beliefs foreign to our own clan. The idol of the Marketplace is analogous to what the earlier Bacon called the influence of public opinion, and includes the potentially misleading effects of language and rhetoric. The last idol, that of the Theater, concerns false doctrine that are propagated by religious, scientific, or philosophical authorities, and that are so basic to a society's worldview that they are no longer questioned. Like the earlier Bacon, then, the later one saw most errors as stemming from collective social forces rather than individual cognitive ones. This is a recurring theme in the history of wrongness. Or, more precisely, it is a recurring question in the history of wrongness: whether we are more error­ prone when we follow the masses or strike out on our own. I think of this as the Fifty Million Frenchmen question, after the expression "fifty million Frenchmen can't be wrong." The saying comes from a 192 7 hit song that poked fun at American prudery:

All of our fashions come from gay Par-ee And if they come above the knee Fifty million Frenchmen can't be wrong. . . . If they prefer to see their women dressed With more or less ofless and less, Fifty million Frenchmen can't be wrong. . . . And when we brag about our liberty And they laugh at you and me Fifty million Frenchmen can't be wrong. In short, if everybody's doing it, it must be a good idea. This is a no­ tion that has received considerable support well outside the domain of pop songs. The Cornell psychologist and behavioral economist Thomas Gilovich has observed that, "Other things being equal, the greater the number of people who believe something, the more likely it is to be true."

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And the legal scholar Cass Sunstein has pointed out that, "Conformity of this kind is not stupid or senseless," since "the decisions of other people convey information about what really should be done." The financial writer James Surowiecki calls this notion "social proof"-the idea that "if lots of people are doing something or believe something, there must be a good reason why."· The other side of the Fifty Million Frenchmen coin is the one your mother loves: if all your friends were jumping off the roof, would you jump, too? This injunction not to be a lemming-to think for oneself instead of following the masses-was the point Roger Bacon and Francis Bacon were trying to make as well. (Two esteemed Englishmen and your mother can't be wrong.) Some philosophers, including John Locke and David Hume, have formalized this idea, arguing that secondhand information, no mat­ ter how compelling or pervasive, never constitutes sufficient grounds for knowledge. According to these thinkers, we can only claim to know some­ thing if we ourselves have directly observed or experienced it. Thinking for oneself is, beyond a doubt, a laudable goal. But there are three problems with the idea that it is a good way to ward off error. The first is that the glorification of independent thought can easily become a refuge for holders of utterly oddball beliefs. You can dismiss any quantity of informed and intelligent adversaries if you choose to regard them as victims of a collective, crowd-driven madness, while casting yourself as the lone voice of truth. The second problem is that (as we have seen), our own direct observations and experiences are not necessarily more trustwor-

*

To be clear, Gilovich, Surowiecki, and Sunstein all acknowledge serious limitations

to this follow-the-crowd logic. Among other problems, Gilovich points out, we tend to assume that most rational people believe what we believe, so our sense of the consensus of the crowd might itself be in error. Surowiecki believes strongly in the wisdom of crowds-he is the author of a 2004 book by that name-but only if their decisions re­ flect the aggregation of many independently developed beliefs, rather than the belief of a few people snowballing into the belief of the masses. Sunstein, meanwhile, acknowl­ edges the potential utility of conformity largely as a preamble to exposing its dangers, and especially its political dangers-which is the central theme of his own book, Why

Societies Need Dissent.

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thy than secondhand knowledge. I f Captain Robert Bartlett, the man who spotted the glaciers of Iceland from 350 miles away, had trusted his own senses over his nautical charts-a clear case of firsthand versus second­ hand information-he would have come to the wrong conclusion about his whereabouts. The last and most significant problem with the idea that we should al­ ways think for ourselves is that, bluntly put, we can't. Every one of us is pro­ foundly dependent on other people's minds-so profoundly that if we took seriously the charge to think for ourselves, we would have to relinquish our faith in the vast majority of the things we think we know. In his Confessions, Augustine wrote that, I began to realize that I believed countless things which I had never seen or which had taken place when I was not there to see-so many events in the history of the world, so many facts about places and towns which I had never seen, and so much that I believed on the word of friends or doctors or various other people. Unless we took these things on trust, we should accom­ plish absolutely nothing in this life.

And that, mind you, was 1 , 600 years ago, before the mad proliferation of data and ideas that began in the Age of Exploration, sped up during the Industrial Revolution, and hit warp speed with the advent of modern infor­ mation technology. Today, each of us takes vast quantities of information on faith, in ways both ancient and new. That's what we're doing every time we read a newspaper, board an airplane, look something up on Wikipedia, vaccinate our children (or don't), and assume that our parents really are our parents (which, as Augustine went on to note, is the consummate example of a fact that most of us take for granted yet none of us know firsthand). Even specialists and experts rely on other people's knowledge constantly­ far more than you might imagine, and possibly enough to make you nervous. My sister-in-law, for instance, recently had the experience of watching her doctor Google the correct dosage of a medicine she was about to prescribe. Or take the example of Leonard Susskind, who is a professor of theoretical

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physics at Stanford University, a member of the National Academy of Sci­ ences, and one of the founders of string theory. All of that makes him about as expert as you can get in the domain of science, yet here he is on one of its fundamental principles: "If I were to flip a coin a million times, I'd be damn sure I wasn't going to get all heads," he once wrote. "I'm not a betting man, but I'd be so sure that I'd bet my life or my soul on it . . . . I'm absolutely certain that the laws of large numbers-probability theory-will work and protect me. All of science is based on it." And yet, he concluded, "I can't prove it, and I don't really know why it works." In other words, one of the world's leading scientists is obliged to take on faith one of the most basic precepts of his own field. Presumably, Susskind is even more at sea when it comes to matters outside his domain-whether salty foods really increase your blood pressure, say, or whether turnips re­ ally grow best in loamy soil. And what's true for him is true for all of us. The vast majority of our beliefs are really beliefs once removed. Our faith that we are right is faith that someone else is right. This reliance on other people's knowledge-those around us as well as those who came before us-is, on balance, a very good thing. Life is short, and most of us don't want to spend any more of it than absolutely necessary trying to independently verify the facts about turnips. Relying on other people to do that work buys us all a lot of time. It also buys us, in essence, many billions of prosthetic brains. Thanks to other people's knowledge, I know a bit about what Thomas Jefferson was like in person, how it feels to climb Mount Everest, and what kind of creatures live in the depths of the Mariana Trench. Depending on secondhand information makes our lives both much more efficient and much more interesting than they would otherwise be. That said, this dependence raises an important question about the na­ ture of belief. The world around us positively bristles with secondhand sources, from the White House press secretary to The Weekly World News, from Tom and Ray Magliozzi to Rabbi Moses ben Nachman (1 194-1270). Obviously, we don't believe all such sources indiscriminately. So how do we determine which ones to trust? One option-the one that harks back to the ideal thinker of the last chapter-would be to consciously evaluate each

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source on the basis of multiple rational criteria: whether and how often it has proved trustworthy in the past; whether it has a transparent and seem­ ingly sound method for assessing the information it promulgates; whether it appears to be impartial or biased with respect to that information; and whether other people (especially authorities in the field) regard it as reli­ able. All of us do engage in this kind of deliberate and thorough source evalu­ ation from time to time. And, as an ideal of intellectual inquiry, we both teach it to and expect it from other people, especially students, scholars, and professionals in data-driven fields. In our day-to-day life, however, de­ parture from this ideal process is the norm. Instead of trusting a piece of information because we have vetted its source, we trust a source, and therefore accept its information. The philosopher Avishai Marga lit put this nicely. "It is not the case that I am caught in a web of beliefs," he wrote. " . . . Rather, I am caught in a network of witnesses." Our relationships to these "witnesses"-the people and institutions that attest to the truth of various beliefs-predate and determine our reaction to whatever information they supply. As Margalit said, "my belief in [one of these witnesses] is prior to my belief that (what she says is true)." Belief in is prior: however far this might be from our sense of how we should form our ideas about the world, it is the first principle of how we actually do so. All of us are caught in Margalit's "networks of witnesses"­ not just in one but in many, and not just from time to time but all the time, from the moment we are born until the day we die. As countless commen­ tators have observed, this lends to our beliefs an element of the arbitrary. Montaigne, for instance, remarked that people "are swept [into a belief]­ either by the custom of their country or by their parental upbringing, or by chance-as by a tempest, without judgment or choice, indeed most often before the age of discretion." ' This claim is at once obvious and irksome, not least because it is directly at odds with the 'Cuz It's True Constraint. If we think we believe our beliefs based on the facts, we aren't likely to appre-

• A case in point: the single best predictor of someone's political ideology is their parents' political ideology.

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ciate the alternative theory that we actually believe them because we were born in Tuscaloosa instead of Dubai. This relationship between communities and beliefs is a two-way street. If we often form our beliefs on the basis of our communities, we also form our communities on the basis of our beliefs. There may be no better con­ temporary example of this than the Internet, which has enabled far-flung strangers to form confederacies around their common convictions, what­ ever those may be. But people have been bonding together on the basis of belief since long before search engines made it so easy. Ancient Epicureans, Orthodox Jews, socialists, suffragists, indie rockers in skinny jeans: all of them, like all of us, sought out (and, when possible, settled among) the like­ minded. Sociologists call this predilection "homophily": the tendency to like people who are like us. Homophily isn't necessarily the kind of thing we explicitly espouse. Here in the United States, with our ethos of melting­ pot multiculturalism, two-thirds of us claim to want to share a community with those whose beliefs and backgrounds differ from our own. In reality, though, most of us live around people who look, earn, worship, and vote a whole lot like we do. (As the Washington Post pointed out after the 2008 presidential election, "Nearly half of all Americans live in 'landslide coun­ ties' where Democrats or Republicans regularly win in a rout"-just one example of our tendency to hang out with our own.) Whether we spend so much time with these people because we agree with them, or agree with them because we spend so much time with them, the crucial point remains the same. We do not just hold a belief; we hold a membership in a com­ munity of believers. That membership confers on us some very significant advantages. Some of these are practical, as I've already noted. Since communal beliefs are familiar, established, and supported (socially if not factually), hewing to them is both comfortable and efficient. It is also remunerative: typically, the goods a community has on offer-from professional opportunities to po­ litical power-are awarded to those who share its beliefs and withheld from those who don't. But the most important advantages we gain from mem­ bership in a community are the emotional ones: the comfort, pleasure, and

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security of being surrounded by people who agree with and understand us. Taken together with more practical and material factors, these psychologi­ cal benefits provide a powerful incentive to keep faith with those around us. And keep faith we do-even, as we are about to see, when doing so leads us into error, folly, and travesty.

In the 1950s, the social psychologist Solomon Asch conducted what has be­ come one of the most famous experiments in the history of his field. Asch brought groups of five to eight people into a classroom and showed them two flashcards at a time-one with a single vertical line on it, the other with three vertical lines. He then asked the people to tell him, one at a time and out loud, which line on the second card was the same length as the line on the first card.

I

A

B

C

As you can see from the above images, this is not a terribly challeng­ ing task. Young children can do it correctly, and in control experiments designed to determine baseline success rates, Asch's subjects sailed through the flashcards without any difficulty. In the actual experiment, however, there was a hitch: only one of the people in the room was really a subject. The others were working for Asch ("stooges," in psych-experiment parlance), and, per his instructions, after the first few flashcards, they all began to give the same wrong answer. The consequences for the lone authentic subject were striking. Three-quarters of them gave the wrong answer at least once, and one-quarter gave the wrong answer for half or more of the flashcards. On average, the subjects' error rate rose from under 1 percent when acting independently to almost 37 percent when influenced by the group.

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The Asch line studies tend to make people queasy, and with good reason. None of us like to think that we are unduly influenced by peer pressure, and all of us want to believe that we call things as we see them, regardless of what those around us say. So it is disturbing to imagine that we so readily forsake the evidence of our own senses just to go along with a group. Even more disturbing, though, is the possibility that we do this unconsciously. That possibility was suggested by Gregory Berns, a psychiatrist and neu­ roscientist at Emory University, who conducted a modified version of the Asch studies in 2005. Berns got roughly" the same results as Asch (the wrong answers given by his stooges held sway 41 percent of the time), but his subjects participated from within functional magnetic resonance imaging machines, devices that measure activity in the brain. As the subjects were giving their wrong answers, those measurements showed increased activ­ ity in the part of the brain responsible for spatial awareness, but not in the parts responsible for higher-level cognition, such as conscious decision­ making and conflict-resolution. Berns concluded that his subjects were call­ ing it like they saw it. They weren't knowingly suppressing a correct answer to conform with the judgment of the group. Instead, the judgment of the group actually changed how they saw the lines. The Asch studies and their recent high-tech replication provide a par­ ticularly stark example of a universal phenomenon: like pre-Copernican Western astronomers, we see things as those around us see them. In fact, as these studies show, we do so even when the people around us aren't neigh­ bors or relatives or friends, but just an ad hoc community of strangers. And we do so even when this "community" is tiny; in subsequent studies, Asch found that the social-conformity effect kicked in with the use of just three fake subjects. Moreover, we do so even when the judgment in question concerns a straightforward matter of fact, such as the comparative length of a series of lines. How much more susceptible to peer pressure must we be, then, when it comes from large groups of people with whom we share a place, a history, and a culture-and when it is brought to bear on far more complicated and ambiguous evidence? In other words, how much more must our real communities influence our real beliefs? To answer this question, I want to return to the Appenzells, the two

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cantons i n Switzerland where women couldn't vote until 1989 and 1990. To understand these two cantons in specific, you have to understand some­ thing about the cantons in general, which is that their independence is a sacrosanct pillar of Swiss political culture-a kind of state's rights senti­ ment on steroids. There's a joke in Switzerland that illustrates the point: a German kid, an American kid, and a Swiss kid are sitting around talking about how babies are made. The German kid claims that they are brought to their parents by storks. The American kid describes the mechanics of sex. Then the Swiss kid pipes up and says, "In Switzerland, it varies by canton." The point is that in Switzerland, virtually everything varies by canton. One of these variables is communication. The country recognizes four national languages-German, French, Italian, and Romansch-and the differences between and loyalties within these language groups and their associated cultures run deep. (If Switzerland has an analogue to America's red state/ blue state divide, it is between the country's German-speaking population, which is more conservative and isolationist, and its French-speaking popula­ tion, which is more liberal and internationalist.) Another variable is geogra­ phy. The more mountainous southern cantons have smaller populations and heavily agrarian economies, while the northern cantons are more populous and urbanized. Then there is religion. The country is almost evenly split between Catholics and Protestants-and, in 1847, it almost did split between them, when a civil war broke out between the predominantly Catholic and predominantly Protestant cantons. This Protestant/Catholic divide also created Appenzell lnnerrhoden and Appenzell Ausserrhoden. The two cantons were one until 1 597, at which point they separated along religious lines. Today, Innerrhoden is largely Catholic, Ausserrhoden largely Protestant. Otherwise, though, the two are very similar. Both are tiny, rural, mountainous, sparsely populated, and almost entirely German-speaking. And, as you might infer from the suffrage situation, both are deeply conservative. The extremely apt motto of the tourist department for Appenzellerland-the collective name for the two cantons-is "As If Time Had Stood Still." Until recently, voting practices ranked high among the frozen-in-amber

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aspects of life in the Appenzells. Beginning at least as early as the 1 3 00s, mting there was conducted through an institution known as the Landsge­

meinde, possibly the oldest continuous form of direct democracy on earth. On voting days, every eligible male citizen gathered in an appointed town square, bearing either a sword or a bayonet. These weapons, often handed down from father to son for generations on end, served as a kind of voter­ registration card; no other proof of citizenship was necessary-or, for that matter, admissible. (To this day in Innerrhoden, where the practice persists, women must present official voting cards, while men need only bring their swords.) Voting was conducted openly, via voice vote or a show of hands. There were no ballot boxes, no electronic voting machines, and most as­ suredly no women. How did the men of the Appenzells defend this exclusion? To some extent-and especially during the early years of the battle over women's suffrage-they relied on the same arguments that were used all over the world: that political participation rendered women unfeminine ("there is nothing so unpleasant as a superintellectual woman," opined one Swiss anti­ suffragist); that most Swiss women didn't really want the vote anyway (be­ cause "they can influence their men and are happy with their condition"); that the domestic sphere would be destroyed if women were "forced" into the public one; that Switzerland had been at peace for over a hundred years, stayed out of two world wars, and cultivated immense prosperity, all with­ out women voting-so best not to fix what wasn't broken; that politics is a man's business and women could not be trusted to safeguard the interests of the nation. All these arguments, however, paled in comparison to the strongest, most enduring, and most uniquely Swiss objection to women's suffrage: that it would annihilate the all-male tradition of the Landsgemeinde and everything it stood for. Ironically, one of the things it stood for was Swit­ zerland's unusually long and rich relationship to democracy. The feeling among antisuffragists, said Lee Ann Banaszak, a political science professor at Pennsylvania State University who studied the Swiss suffrage movement, was that "there was this unique political and historical institution that was very important, that represented the origins of direct democracy, and that

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would b e destroyed by giving women the right to vote." Antisuffragists even commissioned studies showing that the town squares where voting was traditionally held were not large enough to accommodate the entire adult population-meaning that either the Landsgemeinde had to go, or male-only suffrage had to stay. But the Landsgemeinde represented something else, too. In Switzerland, the right to vote had always been linked with military service (hence the swords and bayonets)-and, like the military, the Landsgemeinde fostered both a no-girls-allowed clubhouse mentality and a distinctly masculine sense of honor and duty. "By the 1960s, communal voting was one of the last strongholds for men," said Regina Wecker, a professor of women's history in Basel. "It's not just that you vote; it's that you go there, you vote, and afterwards you go to the pub. So what was involved was their entire sense of community, their entire sense of who they were and the influence they held." Letting women vote threatened to undermine all that-terminating centuries of tradition, destroying community bonds, and robbing men and women alike of their unique place in society. Or so the argument went: women's suffrage would obliterate the very character­ istics that made Appenzellerland unique. From the vantage point of our own era and culture, in which opposi­ tion to women's suffrage strikes most people as Paleolithic·, it's tempt­ ing to mock the antisuffrage Appenzellerites, in the boys-and-their-toys tradition of justified feminist disgust. This is, after all, a group of people who passionately believed that the right to vote was contingent on the pos­ session, passed down from father to son, of a . . . well, let's call it a sword. I'll talk more about this temptation toward mockery at the end of this chapter-about our instinct to despise and differentiate ourselves from the likes of these antisuffragists. For the moment, though, I want to focus instead on something we have in common with them. This isn't their belief in the political inferiority of women (which I trust most readers will find

• But not everyone. Here's the right-wing gadfly Ann Coulter: "If we took away women's right to vote, we'd never have to worry about another Democrat president. It's kind of a pipe dream, it's a personal fantasy of mine, but I don't think it's going to happen."

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risible), nor their desire to honor their community's history and traditions (which I trust most readers will find reasonable). It is, instead, a problem that bedevils all of us as members of communities of believers. I call this problem our disagreement deficit, and it comes in four parts. Boiled down to their barest essence (we will unboil them in a moment), these parts are as follows. First, our communities expose us to dispropor­ tionate support for our own ideas. Second, they shield us from the dis­ agreement of outsiders. Third, they cause us to disregard whatever outside disagreement we do encounter. Finally, they quash the development of dis­ agreement from within. These factors create a kind of societal counter­ part to cognition's confirmation bias, and they provoke the same problem. Whatever the other virtues of our communities, they are dangerously ef­ fective at bolstering our conviction that we are right and shielding us from the possibility that we are wrong. Of the four parts of our disagreement deficit, the first is the most self­ explanatory. Since, as we have seen, communities often either form around or foster shared beliefs, they leave us overexposed to people who second our opinions. (Consider that, in 1959, when women's suffrage was increasingly the global norm, opposition to it in Innerrhoden was running at upwards of 95 percent.) Inevitably, this constant and disproportionate affirmation of our own convictions makes them seem both more warranted and more widely held than they really are. This is our disagreement deficit, inverted: an agreement surplus. The flip side of all that affirmation-and the second reason for our dis­ agreement deficit-is that we are underexposed to sources that challenge our ideas. All of us believe in getting second opinions when it comes to medical issues, but when it comes to most other matters, we are perfectly content to stick with the opinion we already have. As Thomas Gilovich ob­ served, religious fundamentalists generally don't read Darwin in their free time. Likewise, most of us are supremely unmotivated to educate ourselves about beliefs with which we disagree. This underexposure is easy to maintain, since most of us don't spend much time with people whose belief systems differ dramatically from our own. Moreover, even when we do spend time with such people, we sel-

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dom discuss our differences. We talk about the weather, not about climate change; about our recent vacation, not our recent abortion. We can hardly be blamed for this behavior, since it is widely socially endorsed: I'm call­ ing it part of our disagre ement deficit, but most people just call it good manners. "Try to do and say those things only which will be agreeable to others," advised Emily Post, that doyenne of American etiquette. However apt this advice might be for socially awkward dinner guests, it does nothing to help alert us to possible flaws in our belief systems. For that, we're better off taking some not-very-mannerly advice from a not­ very-mannerly source: the magician and comedian PennJillette, who would have appalled the genteel Post, and who once dismissed most conventional etiquette as "bullshit" on his TV show of that name. In an interview for AskMen.com, Jillette attacked the notion that "shutting up about what you believe is showing tolerance to other people." On the contrary, he said, "I believe shutting up about what you believe is a way to stay close-minded, a way not to be busted. If you have some crazy thought and keep it in your head, there is much less chance that someone will say, 'what are you, fuck­ ing nuts?' " In other words, he argued, "One of the quickest ways to find out if you are wrong is to state what you believe." Jillette might be right, but it is Post and her many progeny in the po­ liteness business who rule the day. Most of us hesitate to state our beliefs directly to those who disagree, and, conversely, to openly disagree with other people's beliefs. A friend of mine-who is not known for her retiring personality when she is among her own-confessed to me that she has all but given up on confronting people with whom she disagrees. "No matter how important an issue is to me, and how scary it is to think that the vast majority of Americans disagree with me on it-even in those cases where my life could be much the worse because of that disagreement-! still, 99.9 percent of the time, don't argue with people who disagree with me," she said. Not everyone feels this way, of course. Evangelists, for instance, regard it as their bounden duty to share their own beliefs and correct the errors of others. And, too, there are the Jerry Springers of the world, unafraid to (as Jillette might say) call bullshit on everything that runs counter to their own

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high-pitched convictions. But my friend's suspicion that it is impossible to change other people's minds is widespread. And it is not unfounded, which brings us to the third reason for our disagreement deficit: even when we do encounter outside challenges to our beliefs, we usually disregard them. In fact, much as we tend to automatically accept information from people we trust, we tend to automatically reject information from unfamiliar or disagreeable sources. The antisuffragists of the Appenzells are a case in point. As women's suffrage became more established in Switzerland and more common the world over, outside pressure increased on the cantons to extend the vote to women. But the Appenzellerites remained unmoved-precisely because this pressure came from outside. As Banaszak wrote in a book comparing the Swiss and American suffrage movements, Swiss opponents of suffrage regarded women's voting rights as an "unwanted reform" that "was being forced upon them by the national government, politicians, the press, and foreign influences." In fact, if outside pressure moved the men of Appenzell at all, it moved them toward a more extreme position. Banaszak quotes a suf­ fragist who recalled meeting a man from the Appenzells who was inclined to support women's suffrage until "he was at the Landsgemeinde and saw the ring of people, people from outside Appenzell, who screamed out so loud [in protest] that the members had to ask for silence."· Far from making us reevaluate our beliefs, external opposition-especially opposition that we perceive as threatening or insulting-tends to make us dig our heels in even more. This leads to something of a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't predicament-because, as it turns out, not being exposed to external op-

• This man's reaction is an example of what psychologists call the insult effect. Studies have shown that if you and another person are debating the merits of a particular idea and the other person suddenly insults you, you will instantly retreat further into your own position, and your conviction that the other person is wrong will intensify. This seems like a natural reaction-but, of course, your interlocutor's manners have nothing to do with how right or wrong he is. (On the other hand, his manners might have a lot to do with whether or not you want to be a member of his community.) This suggests an annoying but immovable fact of life: sometimes, disagreeable people are right.

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position can also make us grow more adamant about our beliefs. This is the infamous phenomenon known as groupthink. In 1972 , the psycholo­ gist Irving Janis defined groupthink as, "a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members' strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action." Groupthink most commonly affects homogenous, close-knit communities that are overly insulated from inter­ nal and external criticism, and that perceive themselves as different from or under attack by outsiders. Its symptoms include censorship of dissent, rejection or rationalization of criticisms, the conviction of moral .superior­ ity, and the demonization of those who hold opposing beliefs. It typically leads to the incomplete or inaccurate assessment of information, the failure to seriously consider other possible options, a tendency to make rash deci­ sions, and the refusal to reevaluate or alter those decisions once they've been made. Shall I even bother naming names? Janis cited as victims of groupthink the Kennedy Administration during the Bay of Pigs disaster and the John­ son Administration in Vietnam, and plenty of readers are no doubt mentally adding the latest Bush Administration and its prosecution of the Iraq War. Plainly, the consequences of groupthink can be catastrophic. But even the mere existence of the phenomenon is troubling. It seems that participation in communities of believers-which, as I've already noted, is both inevi­ table, pleasurable, and psychologically indispensable-can drive us toward a degree of conviction, and a degree of extremity, that we might not oth­ erwise feel. It's as if our own inner world is oddly more capacious than the outer one, able to accommodate a degree of ambiguity that is all too often foreclosed by the boosterism of our cohort or the skepticism of outsiders. This suggests that our communities can be dangerous for our intellectual and moral health. And that, in turn, suggests that we all live, perpetually, on the horns of a dilemma-because if it is intellectually and morally cor­ rosive to always think with others, it is also (as we have seen) impossible to always think for ourselves. It is not impossible, however, to deliberately stave off the dangers of

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groupthink. Irving Janis proposed a list o fways to d o so, including explicitly encouraging disagreement, assigning someone the role of devil's advocate, and actively seeking outside input. Many people cite President Kennedy's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis as a successful effort to counteract groupthink (it seems he learned something from the Bay of Pigs), and oth­ ers see reason for optimism in President Obama's stated commitment to "vigorous debate inside the White House." My favorite example, however, comes from the Talmud, the rabbinical writings that serve as a commen­ tary on the Torah and the basis of Orthodox Judaism. According to these writings, if there is a unanimous guilty verdict in a death penalty case, the defendant must be allowed to go free-a provision intended to ensure that, in matters so serious that someone's life is on the line, at least one person has prevented groupthink by providing a dissenting opinion. Groupthink arises from the parts of our disagreement deficit that I've already introduced: disproportionate exposure to support for our beliefs, underexposure to the opposition, and a tendency to discount that opposi­ tion even if we do encounter it. But it also hints at the fourth and final part: the suppression of doubt or differences of opinion within a community. Sometimes, this suppression is subtle, or even self-imposed-just an in­ stinctive shying away from anything that could disturb a group to which we are loyal, or disrupt the material and psychological infrastructure of our lives. This kind of self-censorship almost certainly played a role in the widespread opposition to women's suffrage in the Appenzells. Not only did 95 percent of male citizens there vote against the initial suffrage ref­ erendum, they did so publicly, by a show of hands. Think about trying to raise your own hand when 95 percent of your neighbors aren't raising their own-and then think about the Asch line studies. Sometimes, though, the suppression of dissent within a community is deliberate and overt. As Joseph Jastrow observed in The Story of Human

Error, group conformity has long been enforced through ostracism, exile, and violence. "The laboratory is a latecomer on the human scene," he wrote. "The scepter, the battlefield, the arena, the mob, tribunals for heresy, the stake, are far older as moulding instruments of belief, and more direct

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and effective." His point was the old familiar one: might makes right. In countless communities, historically as well as today, the accuracy of a belief is essentially established by fiat; and community members are dissuaded from dissent by the threat of force. This kind of suasion was not a factor in the battle over suffrage in the Appenzells. To see it in its full-blown form, we need to make a brief layover in a very different part of the globe.

In 1990, an Afghan man named Abdul Rahman converted to Christian­ ity. Such conversions are extremely rare in Afghanistan-the country is 99 percent Islamic-but Rahman had been working for a Catholic charity that provided medical assistance to refugees, and he came to believe in the religion of his colleagues. In the aftermath of his conversion, Rahman's life as he had known it collapsed around him. His wife, who remained a devout Muslim, divorced him on the grounds that he was an infidel. He lost the ensuing custody battle over his two daughters for the same reason. His parents disowned him, stating that, "Because he has converted from Islam to another religion we don't want him in our house." All that was bad enough. But then, in 2006, Rahman was arrested by the Afghan police on charges of apostasy and imprisoned. In accordance with the Hanafi school of shari a law, the prosecutors asked for the death penalty. One of them, Abdul Wasi, said that Rahman "should be cut off and removed from the rest of Muslim society and should be killed." The Afghan attorney general seconded that opinion, urging that the prisoner be hanged. Only after tremendous international pressure was brought to bear on the case was Rahman released from prison. Under threat of ex­ trajudicial (if not judicial) death, he was granted asylum by Italy and fled

*

One notorious example of this is lysenkoism, the practice of establishing scientific

truths via political diktat. It was named for Trofim Denisovich Lysenko, a national ag­ riculture director in the former Soviet Union whose erroneous theories about agricul­ ture, biology, and heritability enjoyed the imprimatur of Stalin and therefore reigned supreme in the Soviet Union from the late 1930s until 1964. At Lysenko's urging, the state famously decreed genetics "a bourgeois pseudoscience," and many legitimate sci­ entists were sent to labor camps or executed.

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his native country. Banished from his home, cut off from his loved ones, and condemned to wander among strangers, Abdul Rahman, the Muslim­ turned-Christian, became, in essence, a juif errant. Rahman's case is extreme by any standards. But being criticized, ostra­ cized, and threatened, suffering the loss of family, friends, property, and opportunity-these are all-too-common consequences of breaking with the prevailing beliefs of our communities. Even Rahman's exile, while par­ ticularly explicit, isn't particularly unusual. Given that each of our beliefs represents a kind of membership card to a group of believers, it's not sur­ prising that relinquishing the belief often involves relinquishing access to the group-or, at the very least, severely diminishing our status and wel­ come within it. (Reducing the sting slightly is the fact that the feeling is often mutual. Once a belief ceases to be attractive to us, those who hold it sometimes become notably less appealing as well.) Rahman's case also illustrates another important point about the re­ lationship between beliefs and communities. What really gets you into trouble with a community isn't holding a belief it scorns; it is abandoning a belief it cherishes. However difficult life might be for non-Muslims liv­ ing in Afghanistan, the Afghan judiciary is not in the habit of sentencing born-and-bred Christians to death. It was Abdul Rahman's rejection of Islam, not his embrace of Christianity per se, that landed him in so much hot water. Given everything we've seen so far about how communities work, this makes sense. While insular groups are relatively immune to outside opin­ ion, they are highly dependent on reinforcement of their belief system from within. As a result, internal dissent, unlike outside opposition, can be deeply destabilizing. Consider one of the striking findings of the Asch line studies: if just one of the fake subjects begins giving the right answers, all the real subjects start doing so as well. Seen from one angle, this finding is heartening, since it suggests that a single person speaking freely suffices to break the stranglehold of conformity-like the little boy pointing out that the emperor has no clothes. Seen from a different angle, however, it suggests that a lone dissident can destroy the cohesiveness of an entire com­ munity. From this latter perspective, doubt and dissent represent a kind of

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contagion, capable of spreading and destroying the health of the communal body. Accordingly, many communities act quickly to cure, quarantine, or expel (or, in extreme cases, eliminate) any nonconformists among them. If a single person breaking ranks on a single belief can threaten the co­ hesion of an entire community, it can also-and perhaps even more alarm­ ingly-threaten the entire nature of believing. This is the point I gestured toward at the beginning of this chapter: if our beliefs can change when we cross a border (or meet a Catholic aid worker), then truth comes to seem like nothing more than a local perspective. That's disturbing, because the whole point of truth is that it is supposed to be universal. Shahnawaz Faroo­ qui, a Muslim journalist and commentator who supported the death penalty for Abdul Rahman, put the matter plainly. "He will have to be executed," Farooqui said, because "if somebody at one point affirms the truth and then rejects it or denies it, it would jeopardize the whole paradigm of truth." Farooqui was right-not about Rahman and the death penalty, but about the fact that affirming and later rejecting a belief jeopardizes the whole paradigm of truth. As I argue throughout this book, our mistakes disturb us in part because they call into question not just our confidence in a single belief, but our confidence in the entire act of believing. When we come to see one of our own past beliefs as false, we also glimpse, for a moment, the persistent structural possibility of error: our minds, the world, the gap be­ tween them-the whole unsettling shebang. As important and life-altering (and even gratifying) as this revelation can be, it runs contrary to what I've described here as one of the chief functions of a community: to buttress our sense that we are right, and protect us from constantly contending with the possibility that we are wrong. Small wonder that such revelations are so unwelcome within communi­ ties of believers, and bring down so much trouble on the individual member who abandons his or her faith. When we realize that we were wrong about a private belief, the chief thing we stand to lose is our pride. But when we share a belief with others, the stakes of rejecting it escalate astronomi­ cally. They include, as we've seen, the practical and emotional advantages of conforming with a community. But they also include the community itself-the trust, esteem, companionship, and love of the people we know

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best. Even more gravely, they include the stability and familiarity of our identities (for instance, as a devout Muslim), and our faith in the very exis­ tence of truth. Short of life and limb (which are occasionally on the line as well), the price of being wrong could scarcely be higher, and the experience could scarcely be more destabilizing. Given these stakes, it makes sense that we are inclined to keep faith with those around us, to insist on the accuracy of our shared convictions, and to condemn those who reject or betray them. Left unchecked, how­ ever, this kind of rigid community loyalty is not benign. As the examples in this chapter and the course of history both show, blind adherence to our communities can produce results so appalling that it's easy to respond with undiluted moral revulsion. And yet, while I don't want to discourage anyone from being appalled by injustice, moral revulsion takes us only so far. No one plans to wind up on the wrong side of history, after all-yet very few of us ever pause to ask ourselves whether, this time, we might not be the good guys. So the question, for my purposes, isn't whether the communities in these examples perpetrated moral wrongs. They did. The question is how they managed, while doing so, to feel so unshakably right. And it is also this: Can you and I be certain that we would have acted differently? All of us would like to think so, of course. But then, 100 percent of us would also like to think we would have been among the 25 percent of Asch subjects who kept on giving the right answers even in the face of a group consensus to the contrary. I think of this as the French Resistance fantasy. We would all like to believe that, had we lived in France during World War II, we would have been among those heroic souls fighting the Nazi occupa­ tion and helping ferry the persecuted to safety. The reality, though, is that only about 2 percent of French citizens actively participated in the Resis­ tance. Maybe you and I would have been among them, but the odds are not on our side. None of us can say for sure that we would have acted differently from the silent masses of occupied France. For that matter, none of us can say for sure how we would have acted if we had been a German citizen of the same era-or a male citizen of the Appenzells in 197 1 , or a devout Muslim in the Afghanistan of today. Just as disturbing, and more important, we also

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can't be sure that some of the beliefs we hold today won't appear grievously unjust in the future. This is error-blindness as a moral problem: we can't always know, today, which of our current beliefs will someday come to seem ethically indefensible-to us, or to history. As we've seen, the bonds of a community are just too powerful, and the aperture of its lens too narrow, for any of us to know with certainty that we are acting more freely and see­ ing more clearly than those whom history has now condemned as wrong. That isn't to say that a certain stubborn liberty of mind is beyond us. None of us are automatons, after all, and, outside of science fiction, not even the strictest community can fully brainwash us. Granted, our friends, families, churches, neighbors, and nations have a powerful-indeed an incomparable-influence on us. But beliefs, like mules and centaurs, are fundamentally hybrid creatures: we experience them half in public society, half in the private heart. In the best outcome, these two domains keep each other in check. The people around us prevent us from believing things that are (as Penn Jillette put it) "fucking nuts," while our own inner voice keeps rising up and breaking the surface tension that could otherwise turn a com­ munity into a bubble. Keep that balance intact, and all of us can experience the pleasures of communal life without fear of sacrificing our autonomy (to say nothing of our soul). Throw all the weight to one side or the other, though, and you unleash either the danger of an individual unrestrained by society, or the far greater danger of a society unrestrained by its individuals. To keep this balance, we must understand what can foil it. This is where I want to turn now: to the attractions of certainty, and the temptations that can convert a group of like-minded individuals into a community of zealots.

8.

T h e Allu re of Ce r t a i n t y

Properly speaking, there is no certainty; there are only people who are certain. - C H A R L E S R E N O U V I E R , ESSA IS DE CRITIQ UE GENERALE

The trouble began, as it so often does, with taxes. In AD 6, the Roman Empire, ramping up its policy of territorial expansion and control, decided to impose a tariff on the Jews of the province of Judaea, in what is now Israel and the West Bank. By then, the local Jews had been living under a capricious and often cruel Roman rule for seventy years, so the tax issue was hardly their only grievance. Still, it rankled, and the question of what to do about it caused a schism in the community. The majority heeded the counsel of the high priest J oazar and reluctantly agreed to pay up in the interest of keeping the peace. But a handful, led by one Judas of Galilee, rebelled. Disgusted by what he saw as Joazar's complicity with Roman rule, Judas vowed to establish a new sect ofJews whose members, in the words of

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the first-century Jewish historian Josephus, "have a n inviolable attachment to liberty, and say that God is to be their only Ruler and Lord."" That sounds like an honorable attitude. And a courageous one: Judas and his followers, a small and marginalized minority, took on one of history's most formidable imperial states. As such, they seem like good candidates for hero status in the eyes of their fellow Jews, ancient and modern-and some people view them that way. But to Josephus, and to many others before and since, they were little better than villains and murderers. Judas's sect practiced a scorched-earth policy (including against other Jews, to deprive them of food and shelter and thereby force them to join the sectarian fight), advocated the outright murder not only of Romans but also ofJewish "col­ laborators" (essentially, anyone with less single-minded politics than their own), and contributed to the destruction of Jerusalem and the ferocity of Roman reprisals through their own extreme violence and unwillingness to negotiate. Josephus records a characteristic raid-the sacking of the Jewish enclave of Ein-Gedi, where the able-bodied men apparently fled, and, "As for such that could not run away, being women and children, they slew of them above seven hundred." The historian sums up the sect and its legacy this way: All sorts of misfortunes also sprang from these men, and the na­ tion was infected with this doctrine to an incredible degree; one violent war came upon us after another, and we lost our friends which used to alleviate our pains; there were also very great rob­ beries and murder of our principal men . . . . Such a change was made, as added a mighty weight toward bringing all to destruc­ tion, which these men occasioned by their thus conspiring to­ gether; for Judas and Sadduc [another leader of the rebellion] , who excited a fourth philosophic sect among us, and had a great Josephus is not an unproblematic source, since he is variously accused of being an apologist for the Romans and an apologist for the Jews. Still, his writings constitute

*

the most extensive extant account ofJudas of Galilee and his followers, and even those historians with different interpretations of this era of Jewish life generally take him as their point of departure.

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many followers therein, filled our civil government with tumults at present, and laid the foundations of our future miseries. Who were the members of this "fourth philosophic sect," in all their unphilosophical brutality? These were the original, capital-Z Zealots. His­ tory doesn't record the fate of]udas, but most of the other Zealots peris hed in the first Jewish-Roman war, which began in AD 66 and ended four years later, with the destruction of the temple in Jerusalem and the defeat of the Jews. A small band of survivors retreated to a fort at Masada, near the Dead Sea, where they held off a Roman siege for three years. When the Romans finally breached the fort, they discovered that its 960 inhabitants had orga­ nized a mass self-slaughter, murdering one another (suicide being forbidden in Hebrew law) rather than letting themselves be captured or killed by the Rornans.t As the generic use of their name suggests, the legacy of the Zealots was not ideological but methodological. Murdering in the name of faith, religious or otherwise, was hardly unheard of before they carne along, but they clarified and epitomized it as a practice. In the two millennia since the last ofJudas of Galilee's Zealots perished, a thousand lowercase zealots have kept that legacy alive-meaning, they have killed in its name. These latter­ day zealots have hailed from many different backgrounds and held many different beliefs. At heart, though, and paradoxically, they have all shared a single conviction: that they and they alone are in possession of the truth. (The very word "zealot" comes from a Greek root meaning to be jealous of the truth-to guard it as your own.) What zealots have in common, then, is the absolute conviction that they are right. In fact, of all the symbolic ones and zeros that extremists use to write their ideological binary codes­ us/them, same/different, good/evil-the fundamental one is right/wrong. Zealotry demands a complete rejection of the possibility of error. The conviction that we cannot possibly be wrong: this is certainty.

t The Masada holdouts might actually have been Sicarii, a splinter group of the Zealots that was even more zealous. Josephus distinguishes between the two, but inconsistently, and other reports are conflicting.

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We've seen a lot of this conviction already, i n the form of people who are sure they can see, or sure of what they do see (mountain chains, pregnant women), or sure of what they believe or predict or recall. Most of the time, this garden-variety certainty seems far removed from zealotry-and in a sense, it is. There's a very big difference between, say, insisting that you are right about Orion and, say, murdering the Protestants, Muslims, Jews, bigamists, blasphemers, sodomites, and witches who are defiling your coun­ try. Not everyone who is filled with passionate certitude is Torquemada. In another sense, though, certainty and zealotry are not far removed from each other at all. We got a glimpse of the close association between them, briefly, in the form of the Evil Assumption. If I believe unshakably in the rightness of my own convictions, it follows that those who hold opposing views are denying the truth and luring others into falsehood. From there, it is a short step to thinking that I am morally entitled­ or even morally obliged-to silence such people any way I can, including through conversion, coercion, and, if necessary, murder. It is such a short step, in fact, that history is rife with instances where absolute convictions fomented and rationalized violence. We typically associate these spasms of ideologically motivated bloodshed with certain institutions: extrem­ ist religions (the Crusades, the Inquisition), superiority-minded racial or ethnic clans (the Rwandan genocide, the Third Reich), and totalitarian states (Stalinism, the Khmer Rouge): But institutions are not suprahuman entities, manipulating people to serve their own ends. Institutions have no ends. Top to bottom, they are conceived, created, and maintained by human beings. The certainty they exploit is the certainty-or the longing for it-already present inside each of us. Zealotry, in other words, begins at home. The certainty that we some* I am not trying to suggest a moral equivalence among these events, or between an enslaved minority fighting to liberate its people (e.g., the original Zealots) and a ruling class fighting to promulgate its own power (e.g., the Third Reich). The roots of vio­ lent conflict are invariably complex, manifold, and, above all, specific; and differences between the strength of various zealous groups and the merits of their causes are, of course, salient. However, I am interested here not in how these groups differ but in what they have in common: an unshakable sense of rightness.

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times see channeled toward malevolent ends is not, in its essence, different from the flare of righteous anger that causes each of us to think, mid­ argument, that it is only the other person who is irrational, unyielding, and wrong. We might not see ourselves in the marauding Zealots that laid waste to Ein-Gedi. We might never-let us hope we do not-use violence to impose our worldview on other people. But we, too, are jealous of the truth. This unshakable conviction of rightness represents the logical outcome of everything we've read about so far. Our sense of certainty is kindled by the feeling of knowing-that inner sensation that something just is, with all of the solidity and self-evidence suggested by that most basic of verbs. Viewed in some lights, in fact, the idea of knowledge and the idea of cer­ tainty seem indistinguishable. But to most of us, certainty suggests some­ thing bigger and more forceful than knowledge. The great American satirist Ambrose Bierce defined it as "being mistaken at the top of one's voice," and it is this shouted-from-the-rooftops quality that makes certainty distinc­ tive. Compared to the feeling of knowing (which is, by definition, a feeling, an inner state), certainty seems both amped up and externalized. It is, we might say, a more public, action-oriented analogue to knowledge. The feeling of knowing, then, is less a synonym for certainty than a precondition for it. And we have encountered other preconditions as well. There are our sensory perceptions, so immediate and convincing that they seem beyond dispute. There is the logical necessity, captured by the 'Cuz It's True Constraint, of thinking that our beliefs are grounded in the facts. There are the biases we bring to bear when we assess the evidence for and against those beliefs. And there is the fact that our convictions and our communities are mutually reinforcing, so that we can't question our beliefs without running the risk of losing the support, status, and sense of identity that comes with belonging to a particular society. All of these factors conduce to the condition of certainty-even as they should caution us against it. We have seen, after all, that knowledge is a bankrupt category and that the feeling of knowing is not a reliable indica­ tor of accuracy. We have seen that our senses can fail us, our minds mislead us, our communities blind us. And we have seen, too, that certainty can

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b e a moral catastrophe waiting to happen. Moreover, we often recoil from the certainty of others even when they aren't using it to excuse injustice or violence. The certainty of those with whom we disagree-whether the disagreement concerns who should run the country or who should run the dishwasher-never looks justified to us, and frequently looks odious. As often as not, we regard it as a sign of excessive emotional attachment to an idea, or an indicator of a narrow, fearful, or stubborn frame of mind. By contrast, we experience our own certainty as simply a side-effect of our rightness, justifiable because our cause is just. And, remarkably, despite our generally supple, imaginative, extrapolation-happy minds, we cannot transpose this scene. We cannot imagine, or do not care, that our own certainty, when seen from the outside, must look just as unbecoming and ill-grounded as the certainty we abhor in others. This is one of the most defining and dangerous characteristics of cer­ tainty: it is toxic to a shift in a perspective. If imagination is what enables us to conceive of and enjoy stories other than our own, and if empathy is the act of taking other people's stories seriously, certainty deadens or de­ stroys both qualities. When we are caught up in our own convictions, other people's stories-which is to say, other people-cease to matter to us. This happens on the scale of history (a specific person's story is always irrelevant to zealots, unless it serves the ends of the group), but it also happens to each of us as individuals. If you doubt it, listen to yourself the next time you argue with a family member. Leaving behind our more thoughtful and generous selves, we become smug, or patronizing, or scornful, or downright bellicose. And that's when we are fighting with people we love. So certainty is lethal to two of our most redeeming and humane qualities, imagination and empathy. It is ridiculed by philosophers as intellectually indefensible. (Voltaire called it "absurd," and Bertrand Russell disparaged it as "an intellectual vice.") It is widely excoriated as (in the words of the writer Will Durant) "murderous." When we ourselves observe it in others, we find it laughable at best, despicable at worst. This is a singularly ugly portrait. So why do we continue to find certainty so attractive?

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Imagine for a moment that a man is hiking in the Alps when he suddenly finds his progress blocked by a narrow but terrifyingly deep crevasse. There's no safe passage around it, and he cannot retreat the way he came. The ques­ tion, then, isn't what the man should do; his only option is to leap over the chasm. The question is how he should feel about doing it. This hypothetical scenario was devised by William James to help us think about the merits of certainty. While most of his fellow philosophers were criticizing it as intellectually untenable or morally repugnant or both, James decided to come to its defense. Or rather, to its partial defense: he, too, worried about the potential moral consequences of certainty-but, ever the pragmatist, he argued that it had also some distinct practical advantages. However intellectually honorable doubt might be, he pointed out, it would clearly serve our hypothetical hiker poorly. The better option would be for him to believe absolutely in his ability to leap over the crevasse.' James meant by this that shaky ground should not always deter us from unshakable faith. There are countless instances when our own lives or the larger world have been changed for the better by a passionate conviction: that you can lower your cholesterol or get into medical school or secure a better future for your children; that polio can be eradicated or that the wilderness can be protected or that people with disabilities should not be prevented

* One implication of James's argument is that doubt, like certainty, can be dangerous in sufficiently large doses. There's a nice illustration of this in the realm of mental health. William Hirstein, the psychologist who studied confabulation, described it as "pathological certainty": no matter how wild confabulators' beliefs might be, they cannot be shaken. Hirstein saw a counterpoint to confabulation in obsessive compul­ sive disorder, which he called "pathological doubt." Unlike confabulators, people with OCD want to "raise [the] standards of certainty to absurdly high levels." Thus your partner reassuring you that he locked the door before coming upstairs is not sufficient proof that your door is really locked; nor, for that matter, is the fact that you yourself locked it five minutes ago. Doubt keeps creeping back in, even where it has no rightful or useful place. The psychiatrist Thomas Szasz didn't write about confabulation, but he, too, saw unshakable conviction and chronic uncertainty as the two poles of mental illness. "Doubt is to certainty," he wrote, "as neurosis is to psychosis. The neurotic is in doubt and has fears about persons and things; the psychotic has convictions and makes claims about them."

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from rich and full participation i n public life. As James put it, sometimes unswerving beliefs "help to make the truth which they declare." In these situations, certainty is the best choice because doubt is a bad one-counterproductive at best, dangerous at worst. But there are also oc­ casions where certainty is the best option because doubt isn't really an op­ tion at all. This was the (again, partial) defense of certainty offered by the philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein. In the face of those of his colleagues who believed that certainty was intrinsically absurd, Wittgenstein argued that, sometimes, it is uncertainty that doesn't make any sense. If we want to get through life in a functional fashion, he noted, we have no choice but to treat some of our beliefs as absolutely certain. These beliefs serve as a kind of bedrock on which to build the rest of our worldview; instead of question­ ing them, we use them to ask and answer all our other questions. "At the foundation of well-founded belief," Wittgenstein wrote, "lies belief that is not founded." Not ill-founded, mind you: just not founded at all.' As an example of such a belief, Wittgenstein takes his conviction that he has two hands. This was the most extreme example he could have chosen, for the same reason that anosognosia is the most extreme example of error: because beliefs about our bodies are essentially immune to doubt. For this and other bedrock beliefs, he argued, we literally can't provide any convinc­ ing grounds, because the belief itself is "as certain as anything that I could produce in evidence for it." If someone were to ask him how many hands he had, Wittgenstein pointed out, "I should not make sure by looking. If I were to have any doubt of it, then I don't know why I should trust my eyes. For why shouldn't I test my eyes by looking to find out whether I see my two hands?" In this case and many others like it, he argued, it is doubt that is the absurdity, and certainty that is the only reasonable option. * My favorite description of this unfounded-belief conundrum comes not from Wit­ tgenstein but (in second- or third-hand fashion) from the anthropologist Clifford Geertz. In his book The Interpretation of Cultures, Geertz tells us of "an Indian story­ at least, I heard it as an Indian story-about an Englishman who, having been told that the world rested on a platform which rested on the back of an elephant which rested in turn on the back of a turtle, asked . . . what did the turtle rest on? Another turtle. And that turtle? 'Ah, Sahib, after that it is turtles all the way down.' "

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Wittgenstein, then, defended certainty on the grounds that it is some­ times logically necessary-that without being sure of some things, we can't even begin to think about everything else. (This is an echo, in a deeper register, of Kuhn's point that we can't make sense of the world without theories.) James, meanwhile, defended certainty on the grounds that it is sometimes an aid to action, necessary to our survival and success. Each of these defenses points to a third, which is that certainty is evolutionarily advantageous. As I said earlier, taking the time to interrogate a belief re­ quires more cognitive resources-and, potentially, poses a greater risk­ than simply accepting it. For this reason, William Hirstein (the author of Brain Fiction) calls doubt "a cognitive luxury," one that "occurs only in highly developed nervous systems." Hirstein has a point; you will be hard-pressed to find a skeptical mol­ lusk. And what goes for our collective evolutionary past also goes for our individual developmental trajectory-which is why you will also be hard­ pressed to find a skeptical one-year-old. "The child learns by believing the adult," Wittgenstein observed. "Doubt comes after belief." It also comes in different forms and stages. It's one thing to doubt the existence of Santa Claus, another thing to doubt the accuracy of a news story, and a third thing to doubt the accuracy of a news story you yourself wrote. How adept we are at these different degrees of doubt depends on a variety of factors, including how emotionally capable we are of tolerating uncertainty (more on that in a moment) and how much we have been exposed to and explicitly trained in skeptical inquiry. Doubt, it seems, is a skill-and one that, as we saw earlier, needs to be learned and honed. Credulity, by contrast, appears to be something very like an instinct. So doubt post-dates belief, both in the long haul of evolution and in the shorter haul of our own emotional and intellectual development. And we can shrink the time frame even further: doubt also seems to come after belief in many individual instances in which we process information about the world. That, at any rate, was the finding of the psychologist Daniel Gilbert and his colleagues, in a 1990 study designed to test an assertion by the Dutch philosopher Baruch Spinoza. Spinoza claimed that when we encounter a new piece of information, we automatically accept it as true, and only reject

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it as false (if we do so at all) through a separate and subsequent process. This claim ran counter to a more intuitive and-at least according to Descartes­ more optimal model of cognition, in which we first weigh the likelihood that a new piece of information is true, and then accept or reject it accordingly. To borrow Gilbert's example (because who wouldn't?), consider the follow­ ing sentence: "armadillos may be lured from a thicket with soft cheese." If Spinoza is right, then merely by reading this sentence, you are also, however fleetingly, believing it. In this model, belief is our default cognitive setting, while doubt or disbelief requires a second, super-added act. All of us have experienced something like what Spinoza was getting at. As Gilbert and his colleagues point out, if I'm driving along and I suddenly see a dachshund in the middle of the road, I will swerve my car long before I can decide whether the proposition at hand ("there is a dachshund in the middle of the road") is true or false. One could take matters a step further and suppose that I would also swerve my car if I saw a unicorn in the middle of the road-even though, if l took the time to contemplate the situation, I would surely conclude that unicorns do not exist, in the middle of the road or anywhere else. In fact, most of us really have swerved in response to imagi­ nary entities. Not long ago I was walking under a scaffolding in Manhattan, when in a flash I found myself jumping aside and covering my head with my arms. Some fluctuation in the light or a trick of my peripheral vision or­ who knows?-a random misfiring of my synapses had created the false but alarming impression that a section of the scaffolding was falling toward me. This wasn't true, thankfully, but I acted as if it were-for very good reasons, and ones that underscore the evolutionary utility of certainty. In a practical sense, then, it's clear that we sometimes behave as if a proposition is true before we have had a chance to evaluate it. Gilbert and his colleagues wanted to find out if this is only how we behave, or if it is actually how we believe. They reasoned that if disbelieving a proposition consists of not one process but two-initially accepting and only subse­ quently rejecting it-then people should be more likely to believe untrue things if they are interrupted immediately after exposure to them. And that's exactly what they found. In a series of experiments, subjects who were distracted immediately after learning new information were more likely to

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believe that false statements were true, but not more likely to believe that true statements were false. It was as if merely creating a mental image of a statement (the armadillo creeping toward the camembert) was sufficient to make the subjects believe it-another instance of confusing the ideas in our mind with realities about the world. Aside from scoring a point for Spinoza, this research sheds some light on the cognitive basis for why certainty comes so much easier to us than doubt. But if this is a neurological truth, it is also, and more self-evidently, an emotional one. Certainty might be a practical, logical, and evolutionary necessity, but the simplest truth about it is that it feels good. It gives us the comforting illusion that our _environment is stable and knowable, and that therefore we are safe within it. Just as important, it makes us feel informed, intelligent, and powerful. When we are certain, we are lords of our maps: the outer limits of our knowledge and the outer limits of the world are one and the same. Seen in this light, our dislike of doubt is a kind of emotional agorapho­ bia. Uncertainty leaves us stranded in a universe that is too big, too open, too ill-defined. Even Voltaire, the one who dismissed certainty as absurd, acknowledged in the same breath that doubt is "uncomfortable." The word is understated yet oddly precise: the open space of doubt leaves us ill at ease, unable to relax or feel secure. Where certainty reassures us with answers, doubt confronts us with questions, not only about our future but also about our past: about the decisions we made, the beliefs we held, the people and groups to whom we offered our allegiance, the very way we lived our lives. To make matters worse, facing our own private uncertainty can also compel us to face the existence of uncertainty in general-the unconsoling fact that nothing in the world can be perfectly known by any mere mortal, and that therefore we can't shield ourselves and our loved ones from error, accident, and disaster. No wonder we gravitate toward certainty instead. It's not that we are oblivious to its intellectual and moral dangers; it's that those dangers seem pretty abstract when compared with the immediate practical, emotional, and existential perils of doubt. In fact, just as our love of being right is best understood as a fear of being wrong, our attraction to certainty is best un-

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derstood as an aversion to uncertainty. To explore that aversion, I want to turn now to three representatives of the domain of chronic doubt: Hamlet, the famously indecisive prince of the Danes; John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate who rescued the term "waffle" from the breakfast table; and that most baffling and maddening figure of modern American politics, the Undecided Voter.

Appropriately enough, the world's most famous play about doubt opens with a question. The setting is Denmark, the time is shortly after the death of the king (Hamlet's father) and the question that reverberates across the stage manages to be at once banal and chilling: "Who's there?" Who is there, is among others, the dead king's ghost, who wants to have one last talk with his son. When Hamlet appears, the ghost explains that he, the king, did not die a natural death but was murdered by his own brother, Claudius, who has since married Hamlet's widowed mother and assumed the throne. The ghost implores Hamlet to avenge this murder by killing Claudius. This Hamlet does-but only after agonizing over the matter for five long acts, and only with, literally, his dying breath. By then, the majority of the other significant characters are dead, too, including Hamlet's mother and (by his own doing) three of his friends-all lives that might have been spared if Hamlet's "native hue of resolution" had not been "sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought." So much has been made of Hamlet's indecisiveness-even seventh grad­ ers routinely write term papers on the topic-that it is widely regarded as his defining trait. But this wasn't always the case. As the critic Harold Jen­ kins has observed, for at least the first 1 50 years of his literary life, Hamlet was generally viewed as "vigorous, bold and heroic"-a victim of his cir­ cumstances, not his psyche. But then, in the eighteenth century, the writer James Boswell remarked on "that irresolution which forms so marked a part of [Hamlet's] character," and the description stuck. Over the next hundred years, and with help from additional commentary by the likes of Goethe and Coleridge, the Hamlet we know today was born: a man so paralyzed by indecision that he is unable to take action.

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If it's true that every generation gets the Hamlet it deserves, it would be interesting to figure out why eighteenth-century British theatergoers suddenly required such a paralyzed and doubt-ridden prince. What was it in the political and cultural climate of the moment that suddenly made ac­ tion and conviction, thought and doubt such transfixing issues? Whatever it was, it is with us still-just as Boswell's characterization of Hamlet has yet to be convincingly supplanted by any other. The prince who lives in our modern consciousness, the one who fascinates us and drives us crazy, is the man of (in Coleridge's words) "everlasting broodings." In this now-standard reading, doubt is Hamlet's tragic flaw, respon­ sible for both his inner anguish and the external calamities of the play. But there's something strange about this interpretation of Hamlet, and of Ham­ let. For starters, the prince tries to kill Claudius two acts earlier than he succeeds. That he accidentally kills Claudius's trusted counselor Polonius instead is a failure of execution, not a failure of conviction. Nor did Hamlet hesitate to arrange for the murder of his two school friends, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, when he learned that they were spying on him-hardly the action of the man one critic deemed "Prince Pussyfoot." Still, Hamlet does struggle with doubt. Even if he is more a man of action than we generally allow, he is also clearly a man of contemplation-alive to contradiction and complexity, and troubled by the possibility of error. We know that he believes that our powers of reflection are not meant to "fust in us unus'd," and we watch him bring those powers to bear not only on the question of whether to murder his uncle but also on the merits of ending his own life ("to be, or not to be"), and on the meaning of life and afterlife more generally. Clearly, then, that the capacity to doubt is part of Hamlet's disposition. What is less clear is why that characteristic has struck so many critics as such a profound defect. It's not as if the prince dillydallies for fourteen scenes over whether to order the BLT or the chicken salad. This is someone who has been asked to commit murder. And not just any murder, but one that is both a regicide and a virtual parricide: the deliberate assassination of a man who is at once his sovereign, his uncle, his stepfather, and his mother's husband. One assumes that any reasonable person would be given

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pause by such a situation. (And such was the interpretation of Hamlet pre­ Boswell: that of a reasonable man in an unreasonable position). As if this ethical, political, and familial predicament weren't enough, Hamlet also has another problem on his hands. This one is evidentiary: he has no firsthand knowledge of the killing he's been asked to avenge. Put yourself in his shoes for a moment. You have been commanded to commit a terrible crime-by a ghost. What if it was a mendacious ghost? What if it wants you to take an innocent man's life for its own inscrutable and possibly devious purposes? What if your senses deceived you and there was no ghost at all? If we reviled the prosecutors of the Salem witch trials for their blithe acceptance of spectral evidence, surely we should commend Hamlet for his skepticism about the same. Surely, in other words, his doubt is commensu­ rate with the genuine uncertainty of his situation, and with the magnitude and gravity of the action he is contemplating. Why, then, does Hamlet's doubt strike us as so problematic? Shouldn't we encourage-in fact, demand-serious deliberation before the taking of anyone's life? Furthermore, do we really believe that, had the prince slain his uncle in Act One, everyone would have lived happily ever after? And if so, what are we thinking? Very little in literature or life supports the notion that crimes of passion produce happy endings, or that hasty actions yield fruitful returns, or that hot-blooded world leaders excel at restoring and maintaining the peace: So why do we persist in feeling that doubt is Ham­ let's problem, and that a greater degree of certainty would be the solution? * Shakespeare's own work notably fails to support this conclusion. The two most an­ guished men in his oeuvre (and possibly in all of literary history) are Prince Hamlet and King Lear-and if you think the former was destroyed by doubt, you should see what certainty did to the latter. Like Hamlet, Lear ends in a bloodbath, with the king, all three of his daughters, and most of the other major characters dead. Here, though, the agent of tragedy is Lear's unshakable conviction and the haste with which he puts it into action. As leadership styles go, his more closely resembles the off-with-their­ heads! recklessness of the Queen of Hearts than the contemplativeness of the Prince of the Danes. For Lear, as the critic Maynard Mack put it, "action comes as naturally as breathing and twice as quick." This swiftness of action is what was so wanting in Hamlet-and, to hear the critics talk, so wanted-yet Lear shows us that such convic­ tion can easily be as deadly as doubt.

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One answer to this question lies not in Hamlet's character but in his sta­ tion. No one cares whether, say, Reynaldo, the servant to Polonius, is a fig­ ure of towering certainty or trembling doubt-but Hamlet is a prince, and we do care, deeply, about the conviction of our leaders (even, apparently, our fictional ones). And not without reason. For starters, we recognize that the practical merits of certainty are particularly useful to politicians, who must make dozens of consequential decisions while the rest of us are just trying to figure out our Friday night plans. Hesitate over each of them for five acts, and your ship of state is going to list alarmingly. But practicality alone can't explain why we find certainty so desirable in our leaders, and doubt so intolerable. On the contrary: pure pragmatism would dictate that we embrace a measure of doubt in the political sphere, since even the most cursory acquaintance with history shows us that im­ movable certainty can be a disastrous quality in a leader. Obviously, though, pure pragmatism is not what we are dealing with. In politics as everywhere, it is joined by (and often trumped by) emotion. And emotionally, as we have already seen, our allegiances lie strongly with certainty. When I mentioned this earlier, I was talking about our own certainty and doubt-about how it feels safe and pleasurable to be steadfast in our convictions. But we also find other people's certainty deeply attractive. We have all experienced this pull, in ways both large and small. I have a pretty decent sense of direction, but I've been known to follow a friend along entirely the wrong road (and entirely without thinking about it), simply be­ cause she strode down it with such confidence. Likewise, we tend to follow the highly assured down figurative roads of all kinds, without necessarily questioning where they (or we) are going. As with our own certainty, so too with theirs: we mistake it for a sign that they are right. Like most of the behaviors that can lead us into error, following a confi­ dent leader is not intrinsically irrational. Much of the time, in fact, it creates a perfectly sensible distribution of labor. The leaders in a group are spared the hassle of having too many cooks in the kitchen-a relief for them, since, even as they embody certainty, they also yearn for it right along with the rest of us. (A choice example: frustrated by the on-the-one-hand, on-the­ other-hand advice of his monetary advisors, Harry Truman once jokingly

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threatened to appoint a one-armed economist.) Meanwhile, we followers are relieved of the burden of decision making, not to mention freed up to focus on other things. Better still, some of our own doubt is alleviated by following a confident leader-because, as it happens, other people's certainty makes us feel cer­ tain. As social psychologists can tell you, both doubt and certainty are as contagious as the common cold: all else being equal, our own confidence increases around people who radiate assurance, and our own doubts flare up around the hesitant. It's no surprise, then, that in politics (as in busi­ ness, the military, and the sixth-grade student council), we typically anoint the ultraconfident to lead us. William Hirstein even suggests that, when it comes to those in power, we often feel that "an answer that is possibly (or even probably) wrong is better than none at all." Translation: we are more alarmed by leaders who waver than by those who screw up.' This brings us, of course, to John Kerry. Specifically, it brings us to the 2004 election, which pitted Kerry against then-incumbent George W. Bush-truly one of history's finer examples of a contest between a man who wavered and a man who screwed up. On the one side was Kerry, who fought a war he subsequently repudiated and funded a war he previously denounced­ two reasons, although not the only two, that the right painted him as a tergi­ versator. On the other side was Bush, who framed complex geopolitical issues in black and white and brooked no challenges to his opinions-two reasons, although not the only two, that the left painted him as autocratic and danger­ ously unsophisticated. In a sense, the infamous polarization of the 2004 elec­ torate could be boiled down to this: voters who were disquieted by changes of mind versus voters who were disquieted by impermeable conviction.

• This is true not just in politics but in any realm that requires swift, frequent, and firm decision making. Take sports: in a New York Times article on umpiring, the writer Joseph Berger observed that, "With baseballs flying at speeds faster than cars on a high­ way, umpires sometimes make mistakes-what referee hasn't? But they must remain unflinching. Admit you're wrong and chaos-or, worse, ridicule-can ensue." Berger quotes one umpire who notes that, "A good official always comes strong with his calls. He's always able to sell it, even if he realizes he's made a mistake."

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Accusing your opponent of changing his mind is, I will grant, a standard move in the playbook of American politics. But in John Kerry's case, that ac­ cusation was the playbook. It wasn't just his altered stances on Vietnam and Iraq that attracted criticism. Kerry's detractors also charged him with vacil­ lating on the death penalty, welfare reform, social security, gay marriage, affirmative action, the Patriot Act, and No Child Left Behind, among oth­ ers. To give you a sense of the tenor of the election season, William Satire, the "On Language" columnist for the New York Times Magazine, took on the phrases "wishy-washy," "waffle," and "flip-flop," all between March and Oc­ tober of 2004.t Jay Leno proposed two possible slogans for the Kerry cam­ paign: "A mind is a terrible thing to make up," and "Undecided voters-I'm just like you!" During the Republican Convention, delegates took to doing a kind of side-to-side stadium wave whenever Kerry's name was mentioned: a visual waffle (or call it a waver). For ten bucks, you could purchase a pair of actual flip-flops-the footwear, I mean-with Kerry's face on them. Or you could sport anti-Kerry campaign buttons featuring pictures of waffles or of Heinz ketchup bottles-the latter being an oblique reference to his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, and a direct reference to his supposed indecisiveness: "57 positions on every issue." Some of the allegations of waffling leveled against Kerry were bogus­ such as the suggestion that serving in Vietnam is incompatible with view­ ing it as a moral and political disaster. Others were legitimate-such as the claim that he changed his mind on mandatory minimum sentences not out of a principled reconsideration of the issues but because of standard "tough on crime" political pressure. But the validity (or lack thereof) of these charges isn't the point. It never was. In our political culture, whether or not a leader has good reasons for changing his mind is generally less important than the fact that he changed it in the first place. t Sa fire would want me to point out that these terms are not interchangeable. Accusing someone of flip-flopping (changing positions on an issue) is not the same as accusing him of waffling (being indecisive) or of being wishy-washy (seeming weak). Still, these terms are often deployed together in service of a larger accusation: that their target has too many thoughts and too few convictions.

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Take John Kerry's much-ridiculed assertion that he was for the Iraq War before he was against it. Now, there is a case to be made. that this was a perfectly legitimate political trajectory to traverse. Almost all of us know people who underwent a comparable change of heart. And many of us are such people: of the 76 percent of Americans who supported the war at its outset in 2003, fully half had withdrawn that support by 2007. In the inter­ vening years, after all, new information had become available to the public, the on-the-ground situation in Iraq had changed, and the credibility of the Bush Administration had waned. The hope that we were bringing a better life to the Iraqi people had grown increasingly difficult to sustain. And the cost of the war-in literal dollars, human lives, and America's diminished moral status in the international community-had far exceeded anything anyone could have imagined on the day in 2003 that Bush declared "Mis­ sion Accomplished." Surely, then, this was a situation that merited the high­ minded if somewhat sneering riposte ofJohn Maynard Keynes: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir? " Keynes's policy is a good one. But, like Kerry's U-turns, it is at odds with an enduring and troubling feature of our political culture. In poli­ tics, staying the course is admired (and changing direction is denigrated) intrinsically-that is, without regard to where the course itself might lead. As the late renowned military historian Barbara Tuchman observed, "to recognize error, to cut losses, to alter course, is the most repugnant op­ tion in government." This is Hamlet all over again: we notice the uncer­ tainty, hesitations, and reversals without noticing (or caring) what inspired them. No matter how merited doubt and admissions of error might be, we loathe them in our political leaders, and associate them-inaccurately, but indissolubly-with weakness. Before some readers take umbrage, let me acknowledge that this is an excessively broad use of the word "we." It's true that the allure of cer­ tainty is potent and, in one form or another, near-universal. And it's also true that, in the mass marketplace of attraction, the crowds tend to form around those who exude conviction. But it doesn't follow that all of us admire certainty and abhor doubt (or that any of us have a straightforward relationship to either of them). On the contrary, and as the Bush-Kerry

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contest suggests, some people are rendered a s acutely uncomfortable by ardent conviction as others are by indecision. Still, even the doubt-tolerant have their breaking point. Public opinion might have been divided about George Bush and John Kerry in 2004, and about John McCain and Barack Obama in 2008, but on one issue, at least, we enjoyed almost complete unanimity: we all despised the undecided voter. Even the treatment the far left and far right accorded to their respective nemeses seemed positively respectful compared to the hatred, contempt, and mockery aimed at the undecideds. Two examples, both culled from the 2008 election, will suffice to illustrate the point. On the Daily Show, Jon Stewart presented a pie chart that divided undecided voters into four equally unflattering categories: "attention seekers; racist Democrats; the chronically insecure; and the stupid." A few weeks later, the humorist David Sedaris wrote what became an instantly famous New Yorker article in which he imagined the following situation transpiring on an airplane. "The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. 'Can I interest you in the chicken? ' she asks. 'Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it? ' To be undecided in this election," Sedaris wrote, "is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked." This is the undecided voter in the popular consciousness: needy, in­ secure, ideologically unpalatable, moronic, and incapable of choosing be­ tween chicken and shit-i.e., a chickenshit. Just what is it, exactly, that gets us so worked up about these people? One possibility-a reasonable and, I think, partially accurate one-is that we fear and despise uncertainty in the electorate for the same reason we fear and despise it in the elected. If we rely on our political leaders to make important decisions every day, we rely on our fellow voters to make a particularly important decision at the polls, and we are appalled and alarmed by those who seem unable to do so. And, although these indecisive voters don't have the same kind of power as the president, they do have a power disproportionate to their numbers. Part of what gets us riled up, then, is the sense that the entire electoral process, and our own political future, is held hostage by the tiny fraction of voters who can't make up their minds.

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Still, something tells me that even i f we ameliorated this problem­ say, by abolishing the electoral college, which would significantly dimin­ ish the influence of undecided voters-we would still react to such people with outrage and scorn. After all, if the only thing we cared about was the outcome of the election, we should get far more worked up about the mil­ lions of voters who flatly disagree with us than about the slim percentage that isn't sure. Instead, when push comes to shove, we generally have more fellow-feeling for our political opponents. Those people might want the plate of shit, but at l�ast they agree with us on this much: some things are so important that everyone should take a definite stand on them. This is why undecided voters drive us crazy. They think hard about something that most of us don't have to think about at all. Confronted by a choice that we find patently obvious, they are unsure what to believe, and so they hesitate, vacillate, wait for more information. In other contexts, such actions seem reasonable, even laudable. In fact, they comport pretty closely with the ideal thinker I introduced back in our discussion of evi­ dence. This isn't to say that the average undecided voter represents some kind of optimal philosopher-citizen whom we should all seek to emulate. (For starters, as we saw earlier, that ideal thinker isn't so ideal in the first place.) What these voters do represent, however, are possibilities the rest of us often foreclose: the ability to experience uncertainty about even hugely important beliefs; the ability to wonder, right up until the moment that the die is cast, if we might be wrong. If the undecided voter has a strong suit, that is it: she knows that she could be wrong. If the rest of us have a strong suit, it is that we care, pas­ sionately, about our beliefs. As conflicting as these two strengths might initially seem, they can, in theory, be reconciled. The psychologist Rollo May once wrote about the "seeming contradiction that we must be fully

committed, but we must also be aware at the same time that we might possibly be wrong." Note that this is not an argument for centrism, or for abandoning the courage of our convictions. May's point was precisely that we can retain our convictions-and our conviction-while jettisoning the barricade of certainty that surrounds them. Our commitment to an idea, he concluded, "is healthiest when it is not without doubt, but in spite of doubt."

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Most of us do not want to be doctrinaire. Most of us do not want to be zealots. And yet it is bitterly hard to put May's maxim into practice. Even with the best of intentions, we are often unable to relinquish certainty about our beliefs. One obstacle to doing so is the feeling of being right, shored up as it is by everything from our sensory impressions to our social relations to the structure of human cognition. But a second and paradoxical obstacle is our fear of being wrong. True, certainty cannot protect us from error, any more than shouting a belief can make it true. But it can and does shield us, at least temporarily, from facing our fallibility. The psychologist Leon Festinger documented this protective effect of certainty in the 1950s, in the study that gave us the now-famous term "cog­ nitive dissonance." Along with several colleagues and hired observers, Fest­ inger infiltrated a group of people who believed in the doomsday prophecies of a suburban housewife named (actually, pseudonymed) Marian Keech. Keech claimed that she was in touch with a Jesuslike figure from outer space who sent her messages about alien visits, spaceship landings, and the im­ pending destruction of the world by flood. When none of these prophecies came to pass, Festinger found, the staunchest believers in the group grew

more fervent in their faith, not less.' The beliefs held by Keech and her cohort were unusual. But their be­ havior when those beliefs were disproved was not. Whether you believe in flying saucers or the free market or just about anything else, you are (if you are human) prone to using certainty to avoid facing up to the fact that * As Festinger described it, cognitive dissonance is the uncomfortable feeling that results from simultaneously holding two contradictory ideas. This dissonance can arise from a conflict between a belief and its disconfirmation ("the spaceship will land on Tuesday," "no spaceship landed on Tuesday"), or between a belief and a behavior ("smoking is bad for you"; "I'm on my second pack of the day"). Festinger proposed that there are two ways to ameliorate this uncomfortable feeling. The most direct way is to change your mind or your actions, but this can be difficult if you are heavily invested in the disproved belief or heavily dependent on the contraindicated behavior. The other option-more contorted, but sometimes more comfortable-is to convince yourself and others that the false belief isn't really false, or that the harmful behavior isn't all that harmful. This is why heightened adamancy and evangelism are not uncommon in the face of discon­ firmed beliefs-as we will soon see.

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you could b e wrong. That's why, when we feel ourselves losing ground i n a fight, we often grow more rather than less adamant about our claims-not because we are so sure that we are right, but because we fear that we are not. Remember the Warner Brothers coyote, the one who runs off the cliff but doesn't fall until he looks down? Certainty is our way of not looking down. All of which begs the question: What's so scary down there, anyway? Like most fears, our fear of wrongness is half real, half spectral. It's not exactly true that there is nothing to fear but fear itself, since wrongness re­ ally can have clifflike consequences for our lives. But it is true that the fear of wrongness does nothing but hurt us. It makes it harder to avoid errors (you can't skirt a cliff you can't see), and harder to forgive ourselves and others for making them. For everyone involved, then, looking closely at the experience of wrongness is far better than refusing to look at all. So this is where we are headed now: over the cliff, if you will-to find out how it feels to fall, and what awaits us at the bottom.

PA R T I l l

TH E EXPERI E N C E O F ERROR

9.

B e i n g W ro n g

Now that my ladder's gone I must lie down where all the ladders start In the foul rag and bone shop of the heart. -W. B . YEAT S , " TH E C I RC U S A N I M A L S ' D E S E R T I O N "

So far, this book has been about how we get things wrong-about how our senses, our minds, and our allegiances can all lead us into error. The chap­ ters to come are about what happens once we recognize those errors: about how we react when our convictions collapse out from under us, and how we are changed by that experience. These sections of the book describe, respectively, the "before" and "after" stages of wrongness. This chapter is about something different. It is about what happens during wrongness-about the moment when the feeling of being right seroconverts to the feeling of being wrong. Psychologically as well as structurally, this

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moment forms the central experience of error. It is here that some part of our past self gives up the ghost, and some part of the person we will become begins to stir. As that suggests, this moment is crucial to our moral and intellectual development. It is crucial to why we fear and despise error. It is crucial to helping us understand and move beyond those emotions. And it is almost impossible to describe. I gestured toward this difficulty in Chapter One, when I noted that we can't talk about error in the first person present tense. The moment in which we can logically say "I am wrong" simply doesn't exist; in becoming aware that a belief is false, we simultaneously cease to believe it. Still, something has to transpire between thinking that we are right and knowing that we were wrong. Yet the nature of that "something" is remarkably elusive. For the most part, our beliefs change either too quickly or too slowly to isolate the actual encounter with error. Consider slow belief change first. Many of our beliefs simply erode over time, eventually vanishing altogether or reconfiguring beyond recognition without ever passing through an obvious crisis. A broad range of beliefs can succumb to this kind of tectonic drift, from the trivial (belief that you look great in bellbottoms) to the momentous (belief in God). By its very nature, this kind of long, gradual change is extremely difficult to track. Who can say when mountains become meadows, or glaciers become grassland? The comparable human changes happen on a far smaller time scale, but they can be almost as hard to perceive. A friend says: "It's like I skip from the part where I'm very strident about a particular point ofview to the cocktail party ten years later where I'm wittily mocking my former stridency. I guess there has to be a process in there, a gradual letting-go-first of stridency, then of the point of view altogether. But I don't have the experience in present time of admitting to wrongness." When it comes to observing imperceptibly slow natural processes­ flowers blooming, weather systems forming, stars moving across the sky­ we rely on time-lapse photography. If we wanted to isolate the wrongness implicit in our own gradual changes, we would need a kind of internal equivalent to that-which, as it happens, we have. Unfortunately, it is called memory, and as we have seen, it is notoriously unreliable. Moreover, it is

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most unreliable precisely with respect to accurately recalling past beliefs. This effect is widely documented. For instance, in 1973, the psychologist Greg Markus asked over 3 ,000 people to rate their stances (along one of those seven-point "strongly disagree I strongly agree" scales) on a range of social issues, including affirmative action, the legalization of marijuana, and equal rights for women. A decade later, he asked these same people to assess their positions again-and also to recall how they had felt about the issues a decade earlier. Across the board, these "what I used to think" ratings far more closely reflected the subjects' current beliefs than those they had actu­ ally held in 1973 . Here, it wasn't just the wrongness that disappeared from the process of belief change. It was the change itself. This is the kind of revisionist political history that George Orwell described-and decried-in 1984. The novel's protagonist, Winston Smith, works in the Records Department of the Ministry of Truth, changing the facts and forecasts in old newspaper articles to bring them in line with present-day realities. These changes help create the illusion of absolute infallibility, which in turn helps maintain absolute power: Winston is a servant (and ultimately a victim) of a fascist state. Of course, the fact that our memories can serve the same function as a dystopian Ministry of Truth doesn't mean that we are all protofascists. Unlike the deliberate distortions imagined by Orwell, our own constant revising of memory is largely un­ conscious, and usually innocuous. But as with the Records Department, our memories often serve the quasi-magical function of causing our mistakes to quietly disappear. One person who has seen this happen is Philip Tetlock. Tetlock is a psychology professor and political scientist who has conducted longitudinal studies of the accuracy of political forecasts by so-called experts-academics, pundits, policy wonks, and the like. As a matter of course, Tetlock would get back in touch with his subjects after the events they had predicted did or did not come to pass. In doing so, he discovered that these experts sys­ tematically misremembered their forecasts, believing them to have been far more accurate than his records showed. This, Tetlock said, created "a methodological nuisance: it is hard to ask someone why they got it wrong when they think they got it right." This could be said of the rest of us, too.

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I n updating the past to accord with the present, we eliminate the necessity (and the possibility) of confronting our mistakes. If we think we've always believed what we believe right now, there is no friction, no change, no error, and above all no uncomfortably different past self to account for. If gradual belief change protects us from the experience of error by attenuating it virtually out of existence, sudden belief change does the op­ posite: it condenses that experience almost to the vanishing point. In these abrupt belief changes, the revelation that we were wrong is simultaneously a revelation of a new truth. Here, our experience of error is like one of those particles in high-energy physics that is so short-lived and un�table that it flashes into and out of existence at virtually the same time. For the most part, physicists can detect the presence of such particles (or rather, the past presence of such particles) only indirectly, by observing a change in the amount of matter and energy in a closed system. The same goes for our high-speed errors. We vault over the actual experience of wrongness so quickly that the only evidence that we erred is that something inside us has changed. This tendency to skip straight from Right A to Right B illuminates an important fact about how we change our beliefs-and also how we don 't change them. Here is Thomas Kuhn, the philosopher of science, describ­ ing the way scientists react when their pet theories are unraveling: "What scientists never do when confronted by even severe and prolonged anoma­ lies," Kuhn wrote, " . . . . [is] renounce the paradigm that led them into crisis." Instead, he concluded, "A scientific theory is declared invalid only if an alternate candidate is available to take its place." That is, scientific theories very seldom collapse under the weight of their own inadequacy. They topple only when a new and seemingly better belief turns up to re­ place it. As with scientists, so too with the rest of us. Sometimes in life we find ourselves between jobs, and sometimes we find ourselves between lovers, and sometimes we find ourselves between homes. But we almost never find ourselves between theories. Rather than assess a belief on its own merits, we choose among beliefs, clinging to our current ones until something better comes along. There's nothing intrinsically wrong with this strategy-in

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fact, it might be the only truly viable one·-but it does narrow the moment of wrongness to mere nanoseconds. We are absolutely right about some­ thing up until the very instant that, lo and behold, we are absolutely right about something else. Occasionally, though we stumble. There we are, trying to leapfrog from before to after, from the solid ground of Right A to the solid ground of Right B, and instead we fall into the chasm between them. This is the ter­ rain of pure wrongness-the abyss we find ourselves in when a belief of ours has fallen apart and we have nothing on hand to replace it. This is not an easy or a comfortable place. It is not (despite my general enthusiasm for error and my effort to rehabilitate its reputation) a place I suggest you spend much time. The condition of having been wrong about something might irk us or confuse us or deflate our ego. But the condition of being wrong-of being stuck in real-time wrongness with no obvious way out-absolutely levels us. Fortunately, we don't get stuck in this place of pure wrongness very often. And we don't get stuck there via the collapse of small or medium­ size beliefs. We get stuck there when we are really wrong about really big things-beliefs so important and far-reaching that we can neither easily replace them nor easily live without them. If our trivial beliefs sometimes burst as lightly as bubbles-just a quick pop of surprise and they're gone­ these gigantic beliefs collapse like stars, leaving only us and a black hole behind. If you mortgaged your family's future on your faith in Bernie Ma­ doff; if you hitched your whole wagon to a doctrine or a deity you no longer believe in; if you were wrong about someone you loved and the kind of life you thought the two of you would live together; if you have betrayed your own principles in any of the countless dark ways we can surprise ourselves over the course of a lifetime: if any of this or anything like this has hap­ pened to you, then you have suffered in the space of pure wrongness. * As Kuhn observed, "All historically significant theories have agreed with the facts, but only more or less. There is no more precise answer to the question whether or how well an individual theory fits the facts. But . . . [i)t makes a great deal of sense to ask which of two actual and competing theories fits the facts better." Kuhn was talking about formal scientific theories, but the same generally goes for lay beliefs as well.

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One person who knows all about this space is Anita Wilson.' When I met Anita, she was a thirty-one-year-old special-education teacher living in New York City. Talking to her, it occurred to me that she must excel at her job. She struck me as calm, empathetic, sane, and kind, and I liked her im­ mediately. But the road she had taken to all these places-to her career, to New York, to serenity and happiness-was both tortuous and torturous. When Anita was eight years old, her family moved from Chicago to the central valley of California and went from being, in her words, "aver­ age, church-going Christians" to "crazy evangelicals." As a child and young adult, Anita's faith was deep and sincere. She spent her free time handing out religious tracts to strangers and participating in the various youth pro­ grams run by her church. She worried that her friends back in Chicago would go to hell. For that matter, she worried that she would go to hell. "I remember very clearly thinking that I wouldn't live past thirty because the Rapture would come by then," she told me. "And I can remember having moments of terror: What if it came and they took my mom but not me? I'd get concerned about whether I was really saved: Did I really, really believe that Jesus existed? But I pushed it aside, because to not believe meant that I would go to hell-and I definitely did believe in that." Anita was a talented artist, and when she was twenty, she was accepted into art school in New York. Surprisingly, her parents let her go. ("I think they worried that if they opposed it, they'd lose me entirely," she recalled. "I also think they figured I'd be back in six months.") Shortly before she was to leave, a fellow church member-one who had been beloved by the congrega­ tion and had served as a kind of older sister and second mother to Anita-was killed in a car accident. For Anita, it opened up the first conscious fissure in her faith. "Here was a woman who embodied the essence of what Jesus was trying to teach. And she finally had everything she wanted: a husband, three young children-she was thirty when she died. I was really sad and really angry, and I remember in church there was all this singing and clapping, and no room at all for grief. Everyone was like, 'Oh, now she is where she's sup­ posed to be.' That's the first time I can remember thinking: this is bullshit."

*

At her request, I have changed her name and some of her biographical details.

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Anita went ahead and moved to New York, where she met a man who was, for lack of a better term, a practicing atheist. Like other people's belief, his nonbelief shaped his ethics and his understanding of the world-and also his community, since his family and many of his friends were simi­ larly nonreligious. Improbably or otherwise, Anita and the man fell in love. Through dating him, she came to reject the evangelical Christianity of her upbringing and adopt his worldview instead. As dramatic as that transition might seem, it was, she recalled, "relatively easy. I had the support of all these people who didn't believe in God, and they were smart and sophis­ ticated. And it was so refreshing to be around people who were actually curious about the world and unafraid to ask questions." Then Anita and her boyfriend broke up-and here is where her story of wrongness really begins. In meeting the atheist and his community, she had encountered a whole different belief system than the one she had grown up with. Faced with two different and incompatible theories about the world-an almost Kuhnian conflict of paradigms-she chose his. But when the relationship fell apart, the support structure that had made that choice both tenable and desirable collapsed as well, and it took the belief system with it. By then, though, it was too late to return to the faith of her family. It had sprung too many holes, was too much at odds with both the world she saw around her and the voice she heard within her. A thousand years before her birth, al-Ghazali, the Persian philosopher, meditated on precisely this problem. Of the irreversibility of breaking with past beliefs, he wrote, "There can be no desire to return to servile conformism once it has been abandoned, since a prerequisite for being a servile conformist is that one does not know [oneself] to be such." But when someone rec­ ognizes his former beliefs as false, al-Ghazali continued, "the glass of his servile conformism is shattered-an irreparable fragmentation and a mess which cannot be mended by patching and piecing together." Instead, he concluded, "it can only be melted by fire and newly reshaped."t

t A different and somewhat less acerbic translation of this passage renders "servile con­ formism" as "blind belief." In either case, ai-Ghazali's argument is essentially a restate­ ment of the 'Cuz It's True Constraint. Once we come to feel that we believed something

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Melted by fire: that is the crucial phrase. Raised to b e afraid of a literal hell, Anita suddenly found herself plunged into a figurative one instead. After the breakup, she said, "I plummeted into a pit of awfulness." She no longer believed in her childhood religion, but she had no idea how to live without it, and she had no idea what to believe instead. Without meaning to, she had broken with one conviction-one really enormous, important, all-encompassing conviction-without having a replacement belief at the ready: the preconditions for pure wrongness. And that is where she found herself. Not just wrong about Christianity, not just wrong about atheism, not just wrong in the past. Just-wrong. Wrong right now, wrong in this moment and still wrong in the next. What is it like, this normally elusive space of unresolved, ongoing wrongness? "The first word that comes to mind," Anita told me, "is ter­ ror. Chronic terror. And I mean, day in and day out. I remember having this revelation at one point that I could be totally, viscerally terrified and do my laundry." Lending credence to the notion that wrongness can be indistinguishable from madness, she said, "I know this sounds extreme, but I got about as close to insane as you can get. When you're talking about religion, you're talking about your whole understanding of the world. And when you start to question that, when the certainty starts to slide, you face inner chaos-an absolutely bitter battle for your life. It was just so massively disorienting. I had no idea who I was, what I believed, what I didn't believe. I felt like a toddler lost in the middle of Manhattan." A tiny child alone in one of the most overwhelming places on earth: I've thought about this image often while working on this book-and, for that matter, while going about my life. What keeps me coming back to it is the way that it captures so much of the otherwise fugitive experience of wrongness. There is the sudden awareness of the immensity of the world, and of our own extreme smallness, vulnerability, and confusion within it. There is the utterly primal nature of our emotional response in such situa­ tions: panic, anguish, rage. There is the fear that we don't have the ability

for reasons other than the truth of that belief, we have all but destroyed our ability to keep believing it.

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or resources to find our way again in the world. And, somewhere in the mix, there is also the wronged and outraged and grieving sense that we shouldn't be there in the first place-that some cruel or careless being, more power­ ful than we are, has abandoned us to our fate. (And how much worse that feeling must be when what you've lost is your faith in God, whose job is precisely to be the grown-up for grown-ups: Our Father, who art in heaven.) Anita's image of the lost child also captures another part of the ex­ perience of pure wrongness. In the face of radical error, it isn't just the world that suddenly seems uncertain, unknown, and new; it is also the self. Thus James Sully, that original wrongologist, wrote in 1 8 8 1 that, "any great transformation of our environment may lead to a partial confusion with respect to self. For not only do great and violent changes in our surround­ ings beget profound changes in our feelings and ideas, but since the idea of self is under one of its aspects essentially that of a relation to not-self, any great revolution in the one term, will confuse the recognition of the other." Eighty years later, the sociologist Helen Merrell Lynd made virtually the same point. "As trust in oneself and in the outer world develop together," she wrote, "so doubt of oneself and of the outer world are also intermeshed." Anita understood all this: she described her own experience of breaking with her past as, in part, "an intense mourning of identity." When we are stuck inside the space of error, then, we are lost twice over: once in the world, and again in ourselves. As painful as that sounds, it can also be redemptive. This, too, is suggested by the image of the toddler alone in New York. Drastic error makes us young again, in both the hardest and the best of ways. I've already touched on the hard ways: we grow small and scared, sacrifice some of our self-knowledge, lose our sense of where we be­ long in the world. Still, put a kid in the middle of Times Square, and, lost or not, sooner or later he'll look up in awe. Likewise, most of us eventually man­ age to look up from the despair of wrongness and feel something of a child's wonder at the vastness and mystery of the world. Eventually, too, we get our act together and go explore that big new space-the one outside us, but also the one within us. In fact, perhaps the chief thing we learn &om being wrong is how much growing up we still have to do. "The time after my boyfriend and I broke up was incredibly dark, black, bleak," Anita Wilson recalled. "But

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ultimately it was also this kind of fantastic experience of searching and learn­ ing. Before then, I was always immersed in someone else's identity. Now, I really feel like me. It sounds like such a cliche, but I really did have to go to this terrifying place of losing myself in order to truly find myself." This is the thing about fully experiencing wrongness. It strips us of all our theories, including our theories about ourselves. This isn't fun while it's happening-it leaves us feeling flayed, laid bare to the bone and the world-but it does make possible that rarest of occurrences: real change. As we'll see toward the end of this book, if we could somehow observe the moment of error every time it happens-slow it down and expand it when we normally condense it to mere instants, speed it up and compress it when we attenuate it to years or decades-change is what we would see at its core every time. This helps explain our dislike of error, since most of us are at least somewhat averse to change. And it also explains why the place of pure wrongness is so hard, so heated, so full of emotional drama. It is, in essence, a psychological construction site, all pits and wrecking balls and cranes: the place where we destroy and rebuild ourselves, where all the ground gives way, and all the ladders start.

So we can suffer inside the experience of error, or hurdle over it, or dilute it with time. One way or another, though, the outcome is the same: we move from belief to disbelief. Given what we've seen so far about how much we dislike being wrong and how many forces conspire to make us feel right, it's something of a miracle that we ever manage to make this transition. And yet, with reasonable frequency, we do make it: somehow, something man­ ages to nudge us out of our sublime confidence that we are right and into the realization that we were wrong. One of the fundamental challenges of wrongology is to figure out what that something is, and how it works-and why, very often, it doesn't. We know one thing for sure: mere exposure to the idea that we are in error is seldom sufficient to budge us. As we saw earlier, we receive in­ formation that we are wrong fairly frequently-and, almost as frequently, we cheerily disregard it. Recently, for example, while spending some time

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in Oregon, my home away from home, I took a break from work to go for a bike ride. My destination was a certain alpine lake, and, along the way, I chatted briefly with a somewhat crotchety older man who had been fly-fishing in a nearby river. He asked where I was headed, and when I an­ swered, he told me that I was on the wrong road. I thanked him pleasantly and continued on my way. I figured he thought I should be on the main thoroughfare, which would have gotten me to my destination faster, while I was opting for a more scenic and roundabout route. I also suspected him of trying to steer me, a young female cyclist, toward an easier option, since the road I had chosen was steep and challenging. Eight miles later, when I rounded a corner and dead-ended into barbed wire and private property, I realized the guy had simply told me the facts. I had taken a wrong turn, and the road I was on wasn't going to get me any­ where near a lake. I could have saved myself sixteen miles of fairly arduous alpine cycling if I had bothered to have a longer conversation with him, or to take him a bit more seriously. And quite possibly I would have done so-if, say, he had been a little friendlier, or a fellow cyclist, or someone I recognized from town, or a woman. Whatever might have made me pay more attention to this man, in other words, had nothing at all to do with how right he was. This is, unfortunately, a universal truth. Sometimes people succeed in showing us our errors and sometimes they fail, but only rarely does that success or failure hinge on the accuracy of their information. Instead, as we saw in our discussion of community, it has almost everything to do with the interpersonal forces at work: trust or mistrust, attraction or repulsion, identification or alienation. It's no surprise, then, that other people's input is often insufficient to make us recognize our mistakes. Here, though, is something more surprising. Although I finally admitted my own error on the basis of a barbed-wire fence, we are often equally reluc­ tant to accept the suggestion that we are wrong when it comes to us from the physical world-a far more impartial and therefore (one might imagine) far more palatable source of feedback. These red flags in our environment are, in essence, a kind of forcing function-the engineer's term of art for features of the physical world that alert us to the fact that we are making a mistake. If

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you've just emerged from the grocery store and are trying to get into a black Ford F-1 5 0 that happens to be someone else's black Ford F-1 50, the key will not turn in the lock�one of a great many car-related forcing functions that have long been standard protocol in the automotive industry. Forcing functions are, on the whole, quite effective. But they can't stop you from, say, jiggling your key in the lock, twisting it almost to the break­ ing point, taking it out, looking at it, inserting it upside down, and finally giving up and heading over to try the passenger door-at which point, you note the presence of an unfamiliar diaper bag and the absence of your coffee mug, and the light dawns. As this example suggests, environmental feedback is not all that different from human feedback: it can draw attention to our errors, but it cannot force us to acknowledge them: The fact is, with the exception of our own minds, no power on earth has the consistent and absolute ability to convince us that we are wrong. However much we might be prompted by cues from other people or our environment, the choice to face up to error is ultimately ours alone. Why can we do this sometimes but not others? For one thing, as we saw earlier, it's a lot harder to let go of a belief if we don't have a new one to replace it. For another, as Leon Festinger observed in his study of cognitive dissonance, it's a lot harder if we are heavily invested in that belief-if, to borrow a term from economics, we have accrued significant sunk costs. Tra­ ditionally, sunk costs refer to money that is already spent and can't be recov­ ered. Let's say you shelled out five grand for a used car, and three weeks later it got a flat tire. When you take it to the mechanic, he tells you that you need

*

For another example of ignoring input from our physical environment, consider my

sister, who is one of those otherwise brilliant people who, for some reason, can't find her way out of a paper bag. (I can recall her getting lost in a restaurant and a shoe store, and I strongly suspect that she could become disoriented in a mid-sized airplane.) Once, after returning from a meeting in her own building, she rounded a corner expecting to come across the door to her office, but instead found herself facing a corridor with a window at the end. That's a pretty straightforward example of our environment giving us information that we are wrong-but, my sister said, "the first thing that came to mind wasn't, I'm lost. It was, Who put that window there?" As always, the possibility that we ourselves have fucked up is the hypothesis of last resort.

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both rear tires replaced and the alignment adjusted. Bang: you've just added 250 bucks to your ticket price. A month later, the clutch gives out. You get it fixed-for a cool $900-but pretty soon you start having trouble with the ignition. Turns out you need the fuel pump repaired. There goes another $350. Now you've spent $ 1 ,500 to keep your $5,000 lemon running. So should you ditch the car and buy another one, or should you hope for the best and stick with the one you've got? An economist would say that, whatever you decide, you shouldn't factor in the $6,500 you've already spent. That's your sunk cost, and since the money is gone either way, a ra­ tional actor would ignore it. But human beings are famously bad at ignoring sunk costs, because we are not really rational actors. We are quasi-rational actors, in whom reason is forever sharing the stage with ego and hope and stubbornness and loathing and loyalty. The upshot is that we are woefully bad at cutting our losses-and not just when it comes to money. We are also seduced by the sunk costs of our actions: think about those mountain climb­ ers who keep making their way up Everest when conditions clearly dictate that they should turn around. And, of course, we are seduced by the sunk costs of our beliefs. These belief investments can be very light-the sliver of ego we stake on a friendly bet-or they can be the figurative equivalent of our life's savings. Take Anita Wilson's one-time belief in the literal truth of the Bible. Just for starters, her sunk costs included her trust in her parents, her standing in and connections to her community, her public identity, her private sense of self, and, arguably, twenty years of her life. That's a formidable list, and we haven't even gotten to innumerable ancillary beliefs (such as the merits of evolutionary theory and the morality of abortion), or to not-so-ancillary ideas about the nature and meaning of life. Does the world and everything in it exist for a divine purpose? Is a loving God watching over me? Will I be saved on Judgment Day? Will there be a Judgment Day? Fundamentally: am I, in the biggest of big pictures, safe, smart, worthy, righteous, right? To have a belief that answers all these questions is to be sunk into it at a psychological cost considerably beyond calculation. The problem is that, as with the feeling of rightness, our investment in a belief (or conversely, our indifference to it) has no necessary relationship to

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its truth. No amount of sunk costs can make an erroneous belief accurate, just as fixing the flat on a junky car can't make it un-junky. But our sunk costs do have a keen relationship to our loyalty. The more we spend on a belief, the harder it is to extricate ourselves from it. As Anita put it, "there's a continuum of things you can be wrong about, and some of them are bear­ able, and some of them are not. I can't really accept the possibility that I'm wrong about hell now. But you know, in part that's because if I'm wrong about that one, I'm fucked." This brings us back to the main point: given the power of sunk costs and our capacity to ignore negative feedback about our beliefs, it's a won­ der any of us ever manages to acknowledge that we were wrong. That we sometimes do so is a testament to the human mind-but to what part of it is anybody's guess. If it is hard to isolate the moment of pure error, it is even harder to isolate what's going on inside us when we do or don't face up to our mistakes. We can surmise from our own experience, however, that it has a lot to do with context. Or rather, with contexts: with what is going on both around us and within us. What's going on around us comes down to two questions. The first is how much we are sheltered from or exposed to challenges to our beliefs. When we claim that people who disagree with us "live in a bubble," we mean that their environment is not forcing them (or enabling them) to face the flaws in their beliefs. The second is whether the people around us make it easy or hard to accept our errors. The cult members studied by Leon Fest­ inger faced public ridicule when their prophecies (some of which had been printed in the local newspaper) failed to come true. As Festinger pointed out, that ridicule was not merely mean-spirited but also, as we saw with the Swiss antisuffragists, counterproductive. "The jeering of nonbelievers," he wrote, "simply makes it far more difficult for the adherents to withdraw from the movement and admit that they were wrong." However much we might enjoy crowing at other people's errors, it gives those people little rea­ son to change their minds and consider sharing our beliefs instead:

*In a 2008 post to the blog she writes for The Atlantic, Megan McArdle, the magazine's business and economics editor, chided her fellow opponents to the Iraq War for falling

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If the workings of this outer context are relatively straightforward, the workings of the inner one are hopelessly complex. Like all dynamic sys­ tems, our inner universes are governed by a kind of chaos theory: sensitive in unpredictable ways to minor fluctuations, easily perturbed, oftentimes seemingly random. In such a system, it's hard to explain why humility and humor sometimes win out over pride and touchiness, and even tougher to predict the outcome in advance. As a consequence, our ability to own up to our mistakes will always be partway mysterious-determined, as much as anything, by our moment-to-moment mood. But if our attitude toward error is sometimes a product of the time of day, it is also a product of our time of life. Acknowledging our mistakes is an in­ tellectual and (especially) an emotional skill, and as such it evolves in tandem with our cognitive and psychological development. For instance, the intoler­ ance we routinely impute to adolescents and the wisdom we often ascribe to the elderly are, in part, reflections of different developmental stages in our relationship to wrongness. The hallmark of teenagers is that they think they know everything, and are therefore happy to point out other people's errors-but woe betide the adult who tries to suggest that the kids could be wrong. (These teenage tendencies can help as well as hinder the process of belief change. When I asked Anita Wilson how she had been able to change her mind about something as fundamental as her faith, she said that it was partly about age: "The one thing I had going for me was that I was still basi­ cally a teenager, so disagreeing with my parents was natural.")t

into this trap. "With every 'I told you so' and demand that they apologize to you, per­ sonally, for the sin of being wrong, you are hardening the hawks against the possibility of changing their minds," she wrote. "I know you may feel that you cannot be happy until they apologize, admit that they were wrong, that they were stupid, that everything they ever believed about war was in error. They know it too. Indeed, after all the snip­ ing, many people will refuse to say they are wrong because it would make you happy. They don't want to make you happy. Frankly, you haven't given them any reason to."

t Teenagers make for an interesting case study in the annals of error, since their re­ lationship to wrongness amounts to the familiar one with the volume turned all the way up. Regardless of age, almost all of us are far more alert to other people's errors than to our own. But young adults are the unsurpassed masters of this asymmetry,

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By contrast, the wisdom we perceive i n the elderly often stems from their hard-earned knowledge that no one knows everything. In the long haul, they recognize, all of us screw up, misunderstand ideas, misjudge situations, un­ derestimate other people, overestimate ourselves-and all of this over and over again. In this respect, their sagacity is a form of humility, one that en­ ables a less rigid relationship to the world. (Sadly, the developmental curve sometimes comes full circle. The other cliche about old age, that it makes people cantankerous and set in their ways, is also a product of cognitive development-or rather, of cognitive degeneration. Thus the elderly can sometimes come to seem a lot like adolescents: hawklike in their keenness for other people's shortcomings, steadfast in defense of their own rightness.) Our capacity to acknowledge error, then, has something to do with where we are in life, both immediately and overall. But it has nearly everything to do with who we are in life. It would be easy to observe that people who are arrogant, obstinate, and close minded have difficulty admitting error, whereas those who are more humble, curious, and open to change fare bet­ ter. But there's something unsatisfying about this. For one thing, as I've already noted, all of us contain an admixture of these elements. For another, this explanation verges on the circular: saying that people who are stubborn and narrow-minded can't admit to being wrong sounds a lot like saying that people who can't admit to being wrong can't admit to being wrong. It's true enough, but it doesn't tell us why each of us feels about error the particular way we do. often combining a positively savage disdain for the perceived errors of others with a sublime confidence in their own rightness. I say this with affection, and even admira­ tion. Sometimes the world needs the unblinking conviction of youth: Joan of Arc was a teenager (although not quite in the modern sense), Bob Dylan was in his early twen­ ties when he forged the de facto soundtrack of the civil rights movement, and many of the organizers of and participants in the democratic revolutions of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries have been high school and college students. But I also say it with a twinge of rueful identification, and with belated apologies to my parents-and I'm not alone. Almost every adult I talked to about this book made wry acknowledgment of the blistering intensity of their teenage beliefs-beliefs that, in most cases, they softened or simply rejected later in life. It only underscores the main point to observe that teenag­ ers generally regard these later admissions of error as hopeless acts of selling out.

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A better answer was suggested by Irna Gadd, a psychoanalyst in New York. "Our capacity to tolerate error," Gadd said, "depends on our capacity to tolerate emotion." Most of our mistakes are nowhere near as emotionally leveling as the pure wrongness experienced by Anita Wilson, but virtu­ ally all of them require us to feel something: a wash of dismay, a moment of foolishness, guilt over our dismissive treatment of someone else who turned out to be right-I could go on. (And I will in the next chapters, where we'll look more closely at the range of emotions that wrongness can provoke.) It is the presentiment of these feelings, and the recoil from them, that renders us so defensive in the face of possible error. In this respect, the experience of pure wrongness, although rare, is the telling one: our resistance to error is, in no small part, a resistance to being left alone with too few certainties and too many emotions. For some people, this experience is essentially unbearable. When I spoke with Anita Wilson, I asked whether her parents (with whom she remains close) had questioned their faith at all after she renounced it. "Quietly, be­ hind the scenes, my mom can bend a little," she told me. "But my father is more rigid. He once said to me, 'If I don't believe that every word in the Bible is true, I don't know what I believe.' And I'm like: come on. There are all kinds of passages in the Bible that can't be literally true, there are things that can't be true if other things are true, and there are things my dad plainly doesn't believe-about menstruating women and so forth. But he has to hold on to that certainty. Without it, his whole world would fall apart. He'd go insane. I honestly don't know that he's strong enough to handle it.'' All of us know people like this-people whose rigidity serves to protect a certain inner fragility, who cannot bend precisely because they are at risk of breaking. For that matter, all of us are people like this sometimes. No matter how psychologically resilient we may be, facing up to our own errors time and again is tough. And sometimes we just can't. Sometimes we are too exhausted or too sad or too far out of our element to risk feel­ ing worse (or even just feeling more), and so instead we wax stubborn, or defensive, or downright mean. The irony, of course, is that none of these feelings are all that great, either-and nor do they engender particularly

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comforting interactions with others. True, we will have succeeded i n pull­ ing up the drawbridge, manning the battlements, and skirting a confronta­ tion with our fallibility. But we will also have succeeded (if that is the word) at creating conflict with another person-not infrequently, with someone we love. And, too, we will have succeeded in stranding ourselves inside the particular and unpleasant kind of loneliness occasioned by one's own poor behavior. Then there is the other, less obvious problem with failing to face up to wrongness: we miss out on the wrongness itself. If the ability to admit that we are wrong depends on the ability to tolerate emotion, it is because being wrong, like grieving or falling in love, is fundamentally an emotional experience. Such experiences can be agonizing, but the corny truism about them is true: if you haven't experienced them, you haven't fully lived. As with love and loss, so too with error. Sure, it can hurt you, but the only way to protect yourself from that potential is by closing yourself off to new �xperiences and other people. And to do that is to throw your life out with the bathwater. Happily, we don't need to do this. If our ability to accept error is mercu­ rial and mysterious, we do know this much: it is also mutable. Like all abili­ ties, it comes from inside us, and as such it is ours to cultivate or neglect. For the most part, we opt for neglect, which is why the typical relationship to error is characterized by distance and defensiveness. But if you have ever tried those out in a real relationship (meaning, with a human being), you know that they are the short road to disaster. The only way to counter them is to act counter to them: to substitute openness for defensiveness and inti­ macy for distance. I said earlier that this is not a self-help book, since (for reasons both practical and philosophical) my primary goal isn't to help us avoid error. But when it comes to the opposite task-not avoiding error­ we can use all the help we can get. The aim of the rest of this book, then, is to get closer to error: close enough to examine other people's real-life experiences of it, and, in the end, close enough to live with our own.

10.

H ow Wrong?

Once you have missed the first buttonhole you'll never manage to button up. -JoHANN WoLFGANG v oN GoETHE

On the morning of October 22, 1 844, a group of people gathered to await the end of the world. They met in homes, in churches, and in outdoor re­ vival meetings, primarily in New York and New England but also through­ out the United States and Canada, and as far away as England, Australia, and South America. Nobody knows how numerous they were. Some schol­ ars put the number at 25,000 and some put it at over a million, while most believe it was in the hundreds of thousands. Whatever the figure, the as­ sembled group was too large to be dismissed as a cult and too diverse to be described as a sect. The believers included Baptists, Methodists, Epis­ copalians, Lutherans, and members of various other Christian denomina­ tions, plus a handful of unaffiliated former atheists. They also included an

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almost perfect cross section of mid-nineteenth-century society. Sociolo­ gists often argue that apocalyptic creeds appeal primarily to the poor and the disenfranchised-those for whom the afterlife promises more than life itself has ever offered. But on that day in 1 844, judges, lawyers and doc­ tors, farmers and factory workers and freed slaves, the educated and the ignorant, the wealthy and the impoverished: all of them gathered as one to await the Rapture. What this otherwise diverse group of people had in common was faith in the teachings of one William Miller, a do-it-yourself preacher who had analyzed the Bible and determined the date of the Second Coming. Miller was born in Massachusetts in 1782, the eldest of sixteen children and the grandson of a Baptist minister. When he was four, his family moved to up­ state New York, where the nationwide religious revival that would become known as the Second Great Awakening was just beginning to stir. In later years, the part of the state near Miller's home would be called the Burned­ Over District, because it was so ablaze with religious conviction that there was scarcely anyone left to convert. The time, the place, and the lineage suggest an auspicious beginning for a future religious leader-but as a young man, Miller renounced his faith in Christianity. He was troubled, he later wrote, by "inconsistencies and con­ tradictions in the Bible," and at the suggestion of some friends in Vermont, where he had recently moved with his new wife, he began reading Voltaire, Hume, and Thomas Paine. All three thinkers rejected the authority of re­ ligious doctrine in favor of independent rational thought, and Miller grew to share their convictions. Then came the War of 1 8 1 2. Many a man has reunited with God on the battlefield, and Miller was one of them. As captain of the Thirtieth Infantry, Miller fought in the Battle of Plattsburgh, where outnumbered American troops defeated the British and helped turn the course of the war. To Miller, the improbable victory was evidence of the hand of God: "so surprising a result against such odds, did seem to me like the work of a mightier power than man." Or so he wrote later. But it's hard not to won­ der if what really got to Miller was the close encounter with mortality. He had long worried that rationalism, for all its virtues, was "inseparably con-

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nected with, and did tend to, the denial of a future existence [i.e., life after death] "-a shortcoming that must have seemed more acute after witnessing the ravages of battle. (And, too, after losing his father and sister, both of whom died around the time of the war.) Rather than accept the possibility of annihilation, Miller wrote, "I should prefer the heaven and hell of the Scriptures, and take my chance respecting them." Thus did the wayward Baptist return to the Bible. Yet the contradictions in Christianity that had vexed Miller in the past vexed him still. In 1 8 16, a friend from his Voltaire days challenged him to reconcile those contradictions or abandon the Bible altogether, and Miller took up the gauntlet. For the next several years, he dedicated himself to creating a system, consisting of fourteen rules, intended to render all of scripture internally consistent. He would forever after advertise this sys­ tem as simple and infallible, but an outsider could be forgiven for strug­ gling to discern these qualities. (Rule #8: "Figures always have a figurative meaning . . . such as mountains, meaning governments; beasts, meaning kingdoms, waters, meaning people." Rule #10: "Figures sometimes have two or more different significations, as day is used in a figurative sense to represent three different periods of time. 1 . Indefinite. 2. Definite, a day for a year. 3 . Day for a thousand years." Rule # 1 1 : "How to know when a word is used figuratively. If it makes good sense as it stands, and does no violence to the simple laws of nature, then it must be understood literally; if not, figuratively.") It was these rules of interpretation that led Miller to conclude that the end of the world was at hand. Thus was it written in the Bible, and thus must it be. Plenty of people draw their own dramatic conclusions about the fate of the earth-or, for that matter, about perpetual motion, the health risks of microwaves, and what really happened at Waco-but very few achieve international stature and throngs of followers. In all probability, Miller would have spent his days preaching about the Advent in obscurity if he hadn't chanced to team up with one Joshua Himes. Himes was Rasputin, Warren Buffet, Karl Rove, and William Randolph Hearst rolled into one: a canny advisor, a formidable fundraiser, a brilliant politician, and a public relations genius. The two met in 1839, when Miller, who had been a low-

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key figure on the itinerant-preacher circuit for some years, was modestly describing his doctrine to a small crowd in Exeter, New Hampshire. Himes came to believe in the tiny Millerite movement, and then to transform it. He promptly launched two newspapers, Signs of the Times and The Mid­

night Cry, which soon achieved a combined weekly circulation of 60,000. (Other papers would follow.) He issued millions of copies of pamphlets, hymnbooks, and illustrated posters explaining the timeline of the end of the world, and then established book depots around the country to make these publications available. He pushed Miller to take his message beyond small towns and farming communities and into the big cities of the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time, he ordered the construction of a giant tent to house massive Millerite revival meetings in rural areas. He focused on recruiting other ministers (some 400, by his own estimate) rather than just congregation members, in order to amplify the impact of each new convert. Then he developed a preaching schedule for each of them so punishing that it makes American presidential campaigns look like a walk in the park. These efforts, combined with a zeitgeist that was particularly conducive to religious fervor, quickly turned Millerism into a household word. At first, Millerite doctrine did not specify the exact date of the Second Coming. Its timing was contingent on the fulfillment of a series of other prophecies, arcane in their details, and Millerites argued among themselves at length about whether those prophecies had already come to pass. Miller himself had long held only that the Rapture would probably occur "about the year 1 843 "; when pressed, he finally stated that he thought the world would end sometime between March 2 1 , 1843 , and March 2 1 , 1 844. When the latter date passed without incident, Miller's followers began to be anx­ ious, but also to believe the Judgment Day must be increasingly near at hand. (Recall Leon Festinger, who found that failed prophecies often lead to an upsurge in faith.) Ultimately it was not Miller but one of his adher­ ents, the preacher Samuel Snow, who proposed the date of October 22 and presented the calculations to justify it. Perhaps because of the climate of anxiety and expectation, Snow's sug­ gestion caught on like wildfire. In short order, Advent in October became an article of faith among rank-and-file Millerites. Whether because they

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45 l335•