OECD-Fao Agricultural Outlook 2005-2014

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2005-2014

2005

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2005-2014

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD) The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members.

THE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO) OF THE UNITED NATIONS The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations leads international efforts to defeat hunger. FAO’s mandate is to raise levels of nutrition, improve agricultural productivity, better the lives of rural populations and contribute to the growth of the world economy. Serving both developed and developing countries, FAO acts as a neutral forum where all nations meet as equals to negotiate agreements and debate policy. FAO is also a source of knowledge providing access to information in print and electronic format. We help developing countries and countries in transition modernize and improve agriculture, forestry and fisheries practices and ensure good nutrition for all. Since our founding in 1945, we have focused special attention on developing rural areas, home to 70 per cent of the world’s poor and hungry people. FAO’s activities comprise four main areas: putting information within reach; sharing policy expertise; providing a meeting place for nations; bringing knowledge to the field.

This work is published under the responsibilities of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the Director General of FAO. The views expressed and conclusions reached in this report do not necessarily correspond to those of the governments of OECD member countries, or the governments of the FAO member countries. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Also available in French under the title: Perspectives agricoles de l’OCDE et de la FAO 2005-2014

© OECD/FAO 2005 No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent to OECD Publishing: [email protected] or by fax (33 1) 45 24 13 91. Permission to photocopy a portion of this work should be addressed to the Centre français d'exploitation du droit de copie, 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France ([email protected]).

FOREWORD

Foreword

T

he present report on the Agricultural Outlook has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations. The report draws on the commodity, policy and country expertise of both Organisations in providing a medium term assessment of future prospects in the major world agricultural commodity markets. The report is published annually, as part of a continuing effort to promote informed discussion of emerging market and policy issues. This edition of the Agricultural Outlook offers an assessment of agricultural markets covering cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats and dairy products over the period 2005 to 2014. The assessment is based on projections, conditional on a set of specific economic and policy assumptions, which present a plausible scenario for these markets for the next decade. As such, they provide a yardstick for the analysis of agricultural market outcomes that would result from alternative assumptions. This year’s projections are set against the background of an expected recovery to steady, broad-based, world economic growth over the medium term, slowing population growth and low inflation. Consumption of agricultural products is expected to increase much faster in the non-OECD area than in the OECD area. Imports by non-OECD countries as a group are also growing, and the Outlook foresees an intensification of competition for these growing markets between traditional OECD exporting countries and emerging exporters from the developing and transitional economies. These outcomes are highly conditional on the geopolitical and global economic situation, as well as on the continuation of domestic policies and policy settings, in the various countries. For instance, further trade policy reform following from a successful conclusion to the Doha Development Agenda round of multilateral trade negotiations, revisions to US agricultural policies in the context of the next Farm Bill, or changes in the EU sugar regime, would all have impacts on the prospects for agricultural markets as contained in this assessment. The projections and assessments provided in this report are the result of close co–operation between the OECD and FAO Secretariats and national experts, and thus reflect the combined knowledge and expertise of this group of particiants. As a result of FAO participation in the Outlook, the country coverage of the projections has been considerably extended to a large number of developing countries and developing country regions. A jointly developed modeling system, based on the OECD's Aglink model, facilitated consistency in the projections. A major challenge in the generation of the joint outlook projections was the combination of different sources for market data which did not in all cases match perfectly. This led to some residual global commodity balances which were either kept constant or changed minimally over the outlook period to reduce their impact on the baseline projections. The fully documented outlook database, including historical data and projections, is available through the OECD and FAO internet sites. Within the OECD, this publication is prepared by the Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, while within FAO, preparation for this document was undertaken by staff of the Commodities and Trade Division.

OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

3

FOREWORD

Acknowledgements. This Agricultural Outlook was prepared by the following staff members of the OECD and FAO Secretariats: At the OECD, the team of economic and market analysts of the OECD Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries that contributed to this report consisted of Loek BOONEKAMP (team leader), Garry SMITH, Grégoire TALLARD, Wyatt THOMPSON, Pavel VAVRA and Martin von LAMPE. Research and statistical assistance were provided by Armelle ELASRI, Andrew DEVLIN, Gaëlle GOUARIN and Claude NENERT. Secretarial services and coordination in report preparation was provided by Christine CAMERON. Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook database was provided by Eric ESPINASSE and Serge PETITEAU. Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations furnished useful comments on earlier drafts of the report. At FAO, the team of economists and commodity officers from the Commodities and Trade Division contributing to this edition consisted of Abdolreza ABBASSIAN, Boubaker BENBELHASSEN, Concepcion CALPE, Kaison CHANG, Merritt CLUFF, Piero CONFORTI, David HALLAM (team leader), Amrouk EL MAMOUN, Cheng FANG, Nancy MORGAN, Holger MATTHEY, Adam PRAKASH, George RAPSOMANIKIS, Peter THOENES, Koji YANAGISHIMA, and Carola FABI from the Statistics Division. Research assistance and database preparation was provided by Claudio CERQUILINI, Daniela CITTI, Berardina FORZINETTI, John HEINE, Massimo IAFRATE, Marco MILO, and Barbara SENFTER. Secretarial services were provided by Gwyneth BYRD and Silvia RIPANI.

4


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9

Outlook in Brief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12

Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13

Chapter 1. Cereals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37

World market trends and prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Main market developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Key issues and uncertainties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

38 39 49

Chapter 2. Oilseeds and Oilseed Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

51


52 52 57

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

59

Chapter 3. Sugar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

61


62 63 70

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

71

Chapter 4. Meat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

73


74 77 81

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

82

Chapter 5. Dairy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

83


84 85 91

Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

95

Annex A. Statistical Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Annex B. Glossary of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177


5

TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of tables 0.1. 0.2. 0.3. 0.4. 0.5. A.1. A.2. A.3. A.4. A.5. A.6. A.7.

Where population and income is projected to grow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production and consumption average annual growth rates, 2004-14. . . . . . . . . . . Production and consumption in OECD countries as a share of world total. . . . . . Crop yield projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Per capita consumption for selected commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economic assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . World prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Main policy assumptions for cereal markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . World cereal projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . World oilseed projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Main policy assumptions for meat markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15 21 21 31 33 100 102 104 107 108 110 111

A.8. A.9. A.10. A.11. A.12. A.13. A.14. A.15. A.16. A.17. A.18. A.19. A.20. A.21. A.22. A.23. A.24. A.25. A.26. A.27. A.28. A.29. A.30. A.31. A.32.

World meat projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Main policy assumptions for dairy markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . World dairy projections (butter and cheese). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . World dairy projections (powders and casein) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . OECD trade projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wheat projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Coarse grains projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rice projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oilseed projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oilseed meal projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vegetable oil projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Beef and veal projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pig meat projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Poultry meat projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sheep meat projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Meat per capita consumption projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Milk projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Butter projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cheese projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Skim milk powder projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Whey powder and casein projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Whole milk powder projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dairy per capita consumption projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Main policy assumptions for sugar markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . World sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

113 115 118 119 120 121 124 127 130 133 136 139 142 145 148 150 153 155 158 161 164 165 167 170 172

A.33. Sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 A.34. Sugar per capita consumption projections (in raw sugar equivalent) . . . . . . . . . . 176 List of figures 0.1. 0.2. 0.3. 1.1.

6

Outlook for world crop prices to 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Outlook for world livestock product prices to 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Selected countries’ net trade positions in agricultural products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nominal cereal prices to increase – but changes are significant only for rice . . .

18 19 28 39


TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.2. Global cereal stocks to bottom out soon – wheat and coarse grain prices to continue declining in real terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3. Average cereal yields projected to grow steadily . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4. Non-OECD food use remains predominant for wheat – but feed use to grow rapidly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5. Wheat exports from major suppliers to grow as imports by developing countries expand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6. Non-OECD feed use of coarse grains to grow fastest as livestock sectors expand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7. US and Argentinean coarse grains exports to find increased markets in China and some other developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8. Increased net imports of cereals by non-OECD countries as production, fails to keep pace with consumption growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9. Among others, the Philippines, Nigeria, Thailand and Pakistan to increase rice trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1. Rising nominal world prices for oilseeds and oilseed products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2. Flat real world prices for oilseed and oilseed products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1. World sugar prices to remain under pressure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2. Real sugar prices continue to decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3. Global sugar stocks-to-use ratio to slowly decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4. Production and consumption to increase more in the non-OECD area . . . . . . . . . 3.5. Higher domestic prices in Brazil boost sugar and alcohol production and exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6. Brazil leads the group of low cost sugar exporters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1. Cyclical movements in nominal world prices for meat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2. Strong meat exports from South America lift trade of non-OECD countries . . . . 4.3. Global meat production gains are driven by non-OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4. Strong demand for poultry and pig meat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5. Beef markets: A battle for market share . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6. Poultry’s share in total OECD meat consumption is set to increase . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7. Larger poultry meat imports in China, Mexico and Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1. After an initial fall, world dairy prices show a moderate increase . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2. Dairy product prices are expected to fall in real terms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3. Outlook for milk production in major producing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4. World production trends for dairy products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5. Outlook for dairy product consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6. Informal milk sector remains significant in developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . .


40 41 41 42 44 45 45 48 53 53 62 63 64 65 65 69 75 76 76 77 78 79 80 84 85 86 87 88 92

7

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

Acronyms and Abbreviations Acronyms and abbreviations ABARE ACP AMAD AMF AI AWB BSE BST CAP CIS CPI CMO cts/lb cwe CWB DDA DR-CAFTA dw EBA ERS est. EU EU-15 EU-10 EU-25 EUROSTAT FAO FDI FMD FOB FSRI ACT FTAA GDP GM GMO HFCS HS

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics African, Caribbean and Pacific countries Agricultural Market Access Database Anhydrous milkfat Avian Influenza AWB Ltd. formerly Australian Wheat Board Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Bovine Somatotropin Common Agricultural Policy (EU) Commonwealth of Independent States Consumer Price Index Common Market Organisation for sugar (EU) Cents per pound Carcass weight equivalent Canadian Wheat Board Doha Development Agenda Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Dressed weight Everything-But-Arms Initiative (EU) Economic Research Service of the US Department for Agriculture Estimate European Union Fifteen member states of the European Union Ten new member states of the European Union from May 2004 Twenty five member states of the European Union from May 2004 Statistical Office of the European Communities Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations Foreign Direct Investment Foot and Mouth Disease Free on board (export price) Farm Security and Rural Investment Act (US) of 2002 Free Trade Area of the Americas Gross Domestic Product Genetically modified Genetically engineered or modified plant, animal, micro-organism or virus High Fructose Corn Syrup Harmonised Commodity Description and Coding System


9


IMF JFY kt LDC’s LICONSA lw MAF MAFF MERCOSUR mha MFN mn mt NAFTA NZDB OECD OIE OIS OMB PSE PSD pw rse rtc rwt SMP SP SPS STE t t/ha TRQ UK URAA US USDA VAT WMP WTO ZAR

10

International Monetary Fund Japanese fiscal year beginning 1 April Thousand tonnes Least developed countries Leche Industralizada Live weight Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (New Zealand) Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan) Common Market of the South Million hectares Most Favoured Nation Million Million tonnes North American Free Trade Agreement New Zealand Dairy Board Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development World Organisation for Animal Health Other Independent States of the former Soviet Union Office of Management and Budget (United States) Producer Support Estimate Production supply and distribution Product weight Raw sugar equivalent Ready to cook Retail weight Skim milk powder Sugar Protocol Special Preference Sugar State Trading Enterprises Tonnes Tonnes/hectare Tariff rate quota United Kingdom Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture United States United States Department of Agriculture Value added tax Whole milk powder World Trade Organisation South African rand



Symbols AUD ARS bn BRL CAD CNY EUR ha hl INR JPY kg KRW l lb MXN NZD RUR THB USD

Dollars (Australia) Pesos (Argentina) Billion Real (Brazil) Dollars (Canada) Yuan (China) Euro (Europe) Hectare Hectolitre Indian rupees Japanese yen Kilogram Korean won Litre Pound Peso (Mexico) Dollars (New Zealand) Ruble (Russia) Thai baht Dollars (United States)


11

OUTLOOK IN BRIEF

Outlook in Brief

12

●

Over the outlook period, world agricultural production is increasing at a slower pace than in the previous decade. But continued expansion is expected in global consumption, in particular due to the economic performance and population growth in developing countries. This is reflected in changing net trade positions for various countries and commodities over the next ten years.

●

However, growth in agricultural commodity trade will continue to under-perform relative to non-agricultural trade due, in large part, to the persistence of high trade barriers. At the same time, an increasing share of this trade will reflect growth in south-south trade, with larger exports both from traditional and new emerging exporters in the developing world.

●

While developing country agricultural imports are set to grow, this will partly be met by rising exports from low cost producing countries in the developing world. As a result, competition in global commodity markets will intensify in the medium term. Coupled with marked productivity gains at the world level, this will result in a further drop in real prices for most agricultural commodities.

●

Under conditions of downward pressure on real prices, farmers will have to make continued efforts to improve efficiency and productivity and would benefit from the reform of policies that stand in the way of such efforts. Lower real prices, however, will potentially benefit those countries that depend on imports to secure their food needs.

●

As the rate of expansion in agricultural production in the developing countries as a whole outpaces that of other – mostly OECD – countries, the share of these latter countries in global production falls for most products. Continued productivity gains support higher production in almost all countries, but area expansion is an additional factor in the developing world.

●

Demand changes are a key driver behind the growing importance of developing countries in shaping world agricultural markets. Population and income growth, coupled with urbanisation, and dietary diversification, are expected to generate additional demand and to lead to changes in the composition of food consumption, with a fast growing share of animal products.

●

In the mature markets of OECD countries, food demand is expected to grow only moderately. In determining demand, the role of product and process attributes regarding safety, quality, environment, animal welfare, etc., is taking on prominence relative to price and income changes.

●

The ongoing structural changes in the food industry, characterised by increasing concentration and globalisation and changes in food chain governance, such as the growing role of product standards and vertical coordination, are likely to continue over the outlook period. In addition to domestic and trade policies and policy reform, these changes are becoming of growing importance for the longer term outlook for agricultural markets and trade.

●

The Outlook is not without uncertainty. The economic and policy context will likely differ from what is assumed in this report. In particular, a favorable outcome of the Doha round of trade negotiations would improve trade prospects. Also, projected record low cereal inventories could render cereal prices more unstable and affect global food security. With the growing importance of China and India in global markets, small shocks to either demand or supply in these large countries could lead to substantial external adjustments. Animal disease outbreaks also provide for an important source of uncertainty.


ISBN 92-64-01018-1 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2005-2014 © OECD/FAO 2005

Overview Introduction For the first time, this year’s Agricultural Outlook has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations. As such, the report draws on the commodity, policy and country expertise of both Organisations. In addition, the country coverage of the projections, that envelop the 10-year period to 2014, has been much extended to include a large number of new developing countries and regions. The model that has been used in generating the projections includes, in particular, new country modules for India and South Africa that specify their commodity policies in detail. As in previous years, the assessments offered in this report are based on medium term projections for production, consumption, trade and prices for the commodities covered in the Outlook. The projections are presented in the statistical annex to this report and reflect specific assumptions concerning key macroeconomic variables as well as agricultural and trade policies. These are discussed below. The projections also assume the absence of weather shocks and related impacts on crop yields and livestock production. The possibility that reality may differ from the assumptions underlying the projections constitutes one of the important uncertainties in the Outlook.

The main underlying assumptions Rapid global economic expansion in 2004 slowed by high oil prices The Outlook assessment this year occurs against a macroeconomic background where strong world-wide economic growth and expansion has been slowed during the course of 2004, partly because of a sharp increase in oil prices. Despite the slowdown, however, the world economy still achieved growth that was faster than that achieved during the 1980s and 1990s. The above trend performance resulted from strong growth in the OECD area, particularly the United States and Japan, and rapid expansion in developing countries, notably China and India. This was accompanied by a strong upturn in global merchandise trade which is estimated to have grown at more than double the increase in world income in 2004. Global economic growth is expected to ease in 2005 and then begin to recover during the following year.


13

OVERVIEW

Sustained, broad-based economic growth expected in the medium to longer term For the period 2006-14, this Outlook assumes strong and sustained economic growth in almost all regions of the world. Growth in the OECD area is projected to be around 2.6% per year, with less expansion in the euro-area and Japan than in the United States. Economic growth in many developing and transition economies is projected to be stronger than in the OECD area, underpinning the global growth rate for the period ahead. These projections assume no major disruptions to either the world economy or to that of any particular country. In shifting the focus to particular developing and transitional countries or regions, economic growth in Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, is projected to average around 4% per year. Economic performance in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is expected to slow markedly from the rapid rate of recent years, with growth in Russia averaging just over 2% per year from 2007 onwards. Rapid economic growth is expected to continue in the dynamic economies of Asia over the period to 2014. Within this group, China’s growth is assumed to average above 7% per year; still fast, but slightly slower than during the last decade. Overall, sustained world economic growth is expected to result in robust global demand, and to lead to increased trade in agricultural products to 2014.

Despite rekindled fears, inflation expected to remain low After falling to low levels in 2003, inflation across the world has turned upwards in 2004. Earlier concerns about deflation have been replaced by fears that inflation is making a comeback. Headline inflation has increased with higher oil prices, but in a number of countries core inflation has also picked up and has resulted in some monetary tightening. Inflationary risks vary across countries within the OECD area and across other regions but, in general, are expected to be well contained over the period to 2014. Interest rates are expected to rise as recovery proceeds, with the pace and timing varying across countries, and, as a consequence, inflation rates are projected to remain low through to 2014, with an expected average of less than 2% per annum in the OECD area. Outside the OECD, higher inflation has been a feature of the CIS countries during their transition to market based economies, and in a number of developing countries as well. While inflation rates in these regions are also expected to decline, those in Latin America and Africa are assumed to remain well above those in OECD countries.

Exchange rate adjustments to influence competitiveness Foreign exchange markets were characterised in 2003 by a strong depreciation of the US dollar, the currency in which most agricultural commodity trade is denominated, against other major currencies. More recently, a moderate further depreciation of the US dollar, together with the yen, was accompanied by small appreciation of the euro and British pound. Outside Central Europe, most emerging market currencies have depreciated, notably in Asia and Latin America, partly reflecting the deterioration in external financing conditions. The currency exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar that prevailed in 2004 are assumed to be maintained over

14


OVERVIEW

the outlook period for most countries. The euro/US dollar exchange rate is assumed to remain constant, at the level prevailing in early 2005. This will make US agricultural exports more competitive, other things being equal, compared to those of other OECD exporters whose national currencies have appreciated against the US dollar, such as the euro zone countries, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. However, the opposite situation will apply for a number of developing country exporters such as Argentina and Brazil, whose national currencies are projected to depreciate further against the US dollar in the period to 2014. Likewise, China’s yuan is assumed to depreciate slightly against the US dollar over the projection period. As a major agricultural trading country, this will have some influence on the evolution of China’s trade, acting as a break on imports, while making its exports more competitive. The above assumptions on exchange rates are critical to the trade projections in the baseline and, in particular, to the relative competitiveness of countries in world markets. For instance, a reversal in recent trends of a weakening US dollar would lead to greater opportunities for competing exporters, as well as improve the EU’s potential to export without the use of export subsidies. It is noteworthy in this respect that, despite the decline that has occurred in the US dollar over the last two years from the strong level it had achieved, there remains the possibility that it could depreciate even further because of high projected US trade and budget deficits. If this were to occur, economic growth in the Unites States could be adversely affected. A weakening of economic growth in the United States would, in turn, pose a threat to world economic prospects. Consequently, a further sharp depreciation of the US dollar is another downside risk to the global economic projections for the medium term period.

Population growth rates to decline In past years, rapid population growth has accounted for the bulk of the increase in food demand for agricultural products, with a smaller effect from income changes and other factors. World population growth is expected to slow to just over 1% per year over the outlook period, compared to 1.3% over the last decade (Table 0.1). Population growth in the developing countries, whilst slowing, will remain above that of the OECD area due mainly to higher fertility rates. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by the developing countries, which now stands at over 75%, will continue to increase over the outlook period. Given robust growth in per capita incomes and declining growth in population, the relative importance of population growth in determining demand for food and agricultural products will decline over the next ten years.

Table 0.1. Where population and income is projected to grow (Average annual percentage increase over 10 year period) Population 1995-2004 World Africa

Income 2005-14

1995-2004

2005-14

1.27

1.01

2.62

3.10

2.28

1.83

3.37

3.80

America

1.36

1.04

3.02

3.24

Asia

1.29

1.02

2.61

3.56

Europe

0.01

–0.07

2.13

2.40

Oceania

1.15

0.73

3.51

3.53

Note: Income is at 1995 USD market prices. Source: World Bank, December 2004.


Statlink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/581787887881

15

OVERVIEW

Agricultural support and trade policies influence markets In addition to the macroeconomic environment, domestic agricultural policies and levels of support, as well as border measures such as tariff levels, tariff rate quotas and the use of export competition measures, also significantly influence market outcomes. The baseline scenario is conditioned by an assumption of a continuation of policies that are in place or policy changes that have been announced within existing programmes. Thus, the baseline projections assume trade policies as agreed in the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) and exclude any possible modifications that may result from the current multilateral negotiations underway in the WTO under the Doha Development Agenda. This means that the potential WTO accession of new members, such as Russia, is also not considered. However, the provisions of existing regional and bilateral trade agreements such as, for example, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Everything but Arms Initiative of the European Union, as well as other preferential trade arrangements that exist for particular commodities, are taken into account. Agricultural and trade polices play an important role in domestic and international agricultural markets because they provide support to agricultural producers and thus affect the level and location of production, consumption and prices, leading to market and trade distortions. Agricultural support and protection policies tend to play a larger role in the agricultural sectors of OECD countries than for the developing countries, although some of the latter countries also continue to protect their agricultural industries with trade barriers and other measures to limit imports. Within the OECD area, support to agricultural sectors as measured by the Producer Support Estimate (PSE) indicated that support continues to represents over 30% of gross farm receipts in 2004.* Although some changes have occurred in the composition of support towards less production and trade distorting forms, market price support continues to be the dominant form of support in many OECD countries. Moreover, as market price support is provided through measures that restrain market access, competition from world markets is either limited or non-existent for some products in certain countries. With continued use of export competition measures to dispose of domestic surpluses, this means that market price support policies will continue to distort production, trade and world prices for a number of agricultural products over the period to 2014. In the international arena, the policy environment is still in flux as multilateral negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda continue in the WTO. On 31 July 2004, a consensus was reached in the WTO on a set of framework agreements for pursuing negotiations under the Doha Round. The framework agreements present a broad outline of how trade liberalisation is to occur, leaving the details of how much and how far for later discussions. The decision to adopt the package of agreements puts the discussions back on track in that formal negotiations can resume on the specific commitments that would lead to a successful conclusion; although a new target date for concluding the negotiations has not been chosen. The framework agreement for establishing modalities in agriculture calls for, amongst other things, the elimination of export subsidies and other export competition measures, the reduction of trade distorting domestic support by 20% in the first year and substantial tariff reductions. Developing countries will continue to benefit * See OECD (2005), Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries: Monitoring and Evaluation, July.

16


OVERVIEW

from special and differential treatment. However, at the time of writing this report, (April 2005), precise modalities to liberalise trade in agricultural products were still to be decided. In relation to domestic agricultural policies, the Outlook includes the various provisions and programmes of the US Farm Security and Rural Investment (FSRI) Act of 2002, which is assumed to continue throughout the projection period even though its mandate ends after 2007. The current re-examination of the US agriculture budget by the US Administration is not considered either. For the European Union, the main elements of the 2003 reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) are included, as well as their phased implementation and application by the ten new member states that joined the Union in 2004. Agricultural and trade policies of Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa are also taken into account in the baseline projections, as well as those in other developing countries which play an important role in international markets for some specific commodities such as sugar and rice. Detailed specifications of the policies that are taken into account in this Outlook are presented in Tables A.3, A.5, A.7, A.9 and A.31 of the Statistical Annex.

A summary of the main market trends and developments Agricultural commodity prices continue their long term decline in real terms World market prices for almost all agricultural products covered in the Outlook are expected to strengthen over the projection period. The evolution of these – nominal – prices of selected commodities is shown in Figures 0.1 and 0.2. While agricultural commodity prices are on average increasing, they are expected to continue to decline in real terms, i.e. relative to movements in prices overall. This reflects the fact that underlying forces that strengthen agricultural product supply (largely productivity gains) tend to outweigh the forces that drive stronger demand for these products, such as income and population growth. This development in real prices is characteristic for all products in the Outlook, with perhaps the exception of rice. The nominal and real price developments are graphically shown in the various commodity chapters.

The resumption of imports by Indonesia underpins rice markets While world prices for wheat and coarse grains are projected to remain fairly close to the relatively high levels recently seen, rice quotations are set to increase between 2004 and 2014 in nominal terms. In real terms, rice prices should remain relatively flat, while world wheat and maize prices are expected to continue their longer-term declining trend. Increasing wheat imports by China in particular could drive wheat prices up by some 8% during the first few marketing years of the projection period, but prices are expected to fall again thereafter, ending at around USD 162/t by 2014, 6% above their 2004 levels. Starting from relatively low levels in 2004, world rice prices are projected to increase by 26%, reaching some USD 322/t in 2004 for the Thai 100% B indicator price. World rice prices increases are particularly strong in the first two years when Indonesia returns to its normal net imports of around three million tonnes.


17

OVERVIEW

Figure 0.1. Outlook for world crop prices to 2014 (Index of nominal prices, 1994 = 1) 1.8 1.6 1.4

Wheat

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

Coarse grains

1.2

1.4

Oilseed meal

1.2

1.0

1.2 Oilseed

1.0

0.8

1.0

0.8 Rice

0.6 0.4 1994

1.8

1999

2004

2014

0.4 1994

Raw sugar

0.8

0.6 2009

Refined sugar

0.6

Vegetable oil 1999

2004

Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

2009

2014

0.4 1994

1999

2004

2009

2014


Market developments for oilseeds over the projection period are driven by growing productivity, increasing area planted and rising demand as incomes and populations grow in most countries. On balance, these factors lead to a projection to 2014 of rising nominal prices of oilseeds and oilseed meals from their low levels of 2004, but with real prices flat or declining. With sustained strong demand, vegetable oil prices have been strengthening since the late 1990s, and this is expected to continue over the outlook period, albeit at a slower rate.

Sugar prices under pressure as supplies continue to outpace demand Fundamentals in the sugar market remain bearish, despite a small tightening of the supply-demand balance over the projection period as continuing consumption growth limits the pace of stock accumulation, and leads to a small decline in the global stocks-to-use ratio. However, this will not be enough to materially affect prices. Overall, the world market is expected to be well supplied with sugar with no price increases above 2004 levels justified by market fundamentals. Nominal world market prices for raw sugar are expected to remain within a band of USD 7-10 cents/lb (USD 165-195/t) over the period to 2014, with the long run pattern of falling prices in real terms set to continue.

Prices for livestock and dairy products stay mostly below recent levels Despite animal disease-related market disruptions which have helped increase Pacific beef prices, the US beef price will likely continue to be determined by the traditional beef cycle. Prices have peaked at USD 296 per 100 kg carcass weight equivalent (cwe) in 2004, but with a gradual recovery in US beef output they are expected to be on a downward trend for most of the outlook period. Pig meat prices in 2004 were supported by strong demand from the Pacific market that should lead to an increase in pork production in 2005-06, followed by a cyclical decline in pork prices. However, when compared to the 1999-2003 average, larger imports stemming from income-fuelled demand by Mexico, and to a lesser extent the Asian markets, are nevertheless expected to support Pacific pork prices at a level of about USD 20 per 100 kg cwe higher. But continued investment in integrated poultry systems, particularly in developing countries, will lead to lower poultry prices.

18


OVERVIEW

Figure 0.2. Outlook for world livestock product prices to 2014 (Index of nominal prices, 1994 = 1) 1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

Pigmeat

1.4

Poultry

1.2 1.0

Beef

0.8 0.6 0.4 1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

1.8 Butter

1.6

Cheese

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4 1994

1999

Whole milk powder

1.4

2004

2009

2014

0.4 1994

Skim milk powder

1999

2004

2009

2014


World dairy prices rose to near record levels in 2004, only two years after having collapsed to rock bottom lows comparable to those of the previous decade. Although world dairy prices are expected to remain firm in 2005, supply response to higher prices will eventually cause them to weaken again. This process may start in the second half of 2005, and as the growth of world export supplies is projected to slightly outpace that in import demand over the medium term, prices are anticipated to continue to fall further for some years. But by 2008, nominal dairy product prices should resume a modest upward trend, although by the end of the outlook period they are not anticipated to reach the heights of 2004. By 2014, cheese prices are projected to be about 15% below current levels, while butter prices should be only marginally short of those in 2004. Milk powder prices could see a small reduction, with those for whole milk powder (WMP) falling by 3% and those for skim milk powder (SMP) by 1% compared to the 2004 levels. Nevertheless, world prices are expected to remain at higher levels over the entire projection period as compared to the averages prevailing in the last decade. The relative strength in international prices is expected to stem partly from anticipated reductions of SMP and butter exports from the European Union and lower SMP exports from the United States, and partly from sustained demand for dairy products resulting from population growth, changes towards more protein based diets and rising consumer incomes in major importing developing countries.

Government policies also influence prices These world price developments will help shape agricultural production responses over the outlook period for countries whose producers face world price signals. However, in many instances, domestic agricultural and trade policies also need to be considered in the market assessment. These policies shield producers from variations in world market prices through border measures, limit their response through supply management controls such as production quotas or otherwise influence the degree of transmission of world price signals to domestic producers and consumers. Government support policies impact on domestic prices, and through trade policies, this spills over in world markets, affecting world prices and producers’ production responses globally. This has been true for OECD countries, but increasingly, policies in certain developing countries have an important impact on world markets, too. The projections assume a continuation of existing support and protection policies to 2014. However, a successful conclusion to the OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

19

OVERVIEW

Doha Round negotiations or national programme changes, could lead to policy settings that would result in market projections that could be quite different from those presented in this Outlook.

Agricultural production continues to expand, but more slowly On the assumption of normal weather conditions and continued productivity trends, production of agricultural products will continue to expand to 2014. However the projected global production growth of different commodities will vary depending on the situation in individual countries at the start of the projection period, such as larger or lower production than normal, and the contribution made by these countries and regions to world output. While production is projected to increase, some slowdown in the rate of growth is expected, matching the slowdown in population growth. The following section highlights the main developments for the different commodities.

Production growth in developing countries outpaces that in OECD countries… Global wheat production is projected to grow by 11% to reach 688 million tonnes in 2014. After a reduction from the very high levels in 2004, global coarse grain production is projected to increase at a somewhat faster rate to reach some 1 109 million tonnes in 2014. World rice production is projected to grow to 466 million tonnes, up 14% from 408 million tonnes in 2004. These output increases imply some slowdown in wheat and coarse grains annual production growth to just over 1% per year, respectively, while rice production grows faster at 1.3% per year. Cereal production growth rates in the OECD area are expected to be about half those in the developing countries, and to come mainly from yield growth. Global oilseed production is expected to post growth rates averaging 1.9% annually over the projection period, which is slower than historically. Much higher growth in oilseed production is expected in the developing world at over 3% per year compared to only 0.7% per year in OECD countries. Like the case of cereals, production growth is a result of both higher yields, but also increases in area, especially outside the OECD region. Area devoted to oilseeds is expected to expand by 1.2% per year in the non-OECD countries compared to little change elsewhere. Based on the assumption that oilseeds used directly for feed and food, as well as biofuel use of vegetable oil, are not likely to dominate the sector, most of the available oilseeds are crushed into oilseed meal for feeding animals and vegetable oil human consumption. Output of oilseed meal and vegetable oils is growing roughly in line with that of oilseeds, again with a relatively stronger expansion in the developing countries. But palm oil, drawn largely from Malaysia and Indonesia, plays an increasing part. In comparing production growth prospects for the 14 agricultural products included in the Outlook (Table 0.2), it is apparent that the rate of expansion in production in the developing countries as a whole outpaces that of the OECD area, and by a large margin for sugar, rice, beef, butter and milk powders, though to a lesser extent for cereals and meats other than beef. As a result, the OECD area’s production share in global output for these products declines considerably (Table 0.3).

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OVERVIEW

Table 0.2. Production and consumption average annual growth rates, 2004-14 (Percentage) Production Total

OECD

Consumption Non-OECD

Total

OECD

Non-OECD

Wheat

1.0

0.7

1.4

1.1

0.7

1.3

Rice

1.3

–0.1

1.6

1.0

0.4

1.0

Coarse grains Coarse grains used for feed

1.0

0.3

2.0

1.3

0.7

1.8

1.3

0.5

2.5

1.3

0.4

2.2

Oilseeds

1.9

0.7

3.1

2.4

1.6

2.9

Oilseed meal

2.6

1.9

3.6

2.7

1.7

3.9

Beef

1.6

0.7

2.6

1.6

0.6

2.3

Pig meat

1.8

0.8

2.6

1.8

0.8

2.3 2.5

Poultry meat

2.2

1.8

3.0

2.2

1.8

Milk

1.9

0.9

3.0

..

..

..

Butter

1.7

–0.3

3.4

1.8

–0.3

2.9

Cheese

1.8

1.8

2.8

1.9

1.6

2.7

Skim milk powder

–0.5

–1.3

2.5

–0.9

–2.5

1.3

Whole milk powder

2.0

1.2

3.4

2.0

–0.3

2.6

Vegetable oils

2.7

2.0

3.4

2.8

1.9

3.1

Sugar

1.9

–0.1

2.8

1.8

0.4

2.3



Table 0.3. Production and consumption in OECD countries as a share of world total (Percentage) Production

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Coarse grains used for feed

Consumption

2004

2009

2014

2004

2009

2014

42.5

41.6

41.0

33.0

32.4

31.7

5.8

5.2

5.0

5.3

5.2

5.0

54.1

51.4

50.4

49.6

48.4

46.8 50.5

55.0

52.7

50.5

55.0

52.7

Oilseeds

42.2

38.9

37.3

40.8

39.5

37.9

Oilseed meal

41.9

40.3

38.3

57.7

54.9

52.3

Beef

42.4

41.0

38.4

42.9

41.4

38.9

Pig meat

36.9

35.1

33.4

35.9

34.2

32.7 44.5

Poultry meat

48.8

47.0

46.2

46.4

45.0

Milk

46.9

44.7

42.4

..

..

..

Butter

42.5

38.4

34.8

36.8

33.2

29.7

Cheese

79.3

79.1

77.8

77.2

76.4

75.3

Skim milk powder

82.9

80.3

77.5

62.3

56.2

53.0

Whole milk powder

54.6

53.1

49.9

22.8

20.4

18.1

Vegetable oils

27.3

25.9

24.8

32.2

30.8

29.7

Sugar

28.0

25.0

23.1

28.2

26.2

24.5



… particularly so for meat and dairy products World milk production is projected to increase by just under 2% annually between 2004 and 2014, reaching 747 million tonnes in 2014. Global milk cow and buffalo inventories are expected to increase modestly, but higher average yields will contribute most to increases in output. The European Union, India, United States, Russia, Pakistan,


21

OVERVIEW

Brazil and China account for over two-thirds of total milk output. Producers in developing countries are expected to increase their world milk production shares, as a group, from 55% to 58% in 2014. The growth is expected to be especially strong in India and China. Milk production in the OECD area, on the other hand, would remain relatively stable given that the majority of it is restricted by production quotas. But rather substantial growth in milk production is projected in Oceania and the United States, where such controls do not apply. World production of WMP, cheese and butter is expected to grow by about 20%, while world SMP production is projected to fall by 5% over the Outlook period. Output is expected to increase for all dairy products outside the OECD area, where investment in processing capacities will accommodate the large increases in milk production. In the OECD area, only production of cheese and WMP is anticipated to increase, while that of butter and particularly SMP is expected to fall throughout the period to 2014. Similar to historical trends, meat production gains, while moderating, are expected to occur mainly in developing countries and to outpace those of many other commodities. Growth in global meat production will continue to be driven by rising pig meat and poultry output in developing countries. With these countries accounting for 77% of global output gains over the projection period, their share of global production is set to expand to 62% in 2014, up from 59% in 2004. The gradual reduction in the OECD share of meat production, from 41% in 1995 to a projected 38% in 2014, is in sharp contrast to projected growth in Brazil and China, which are expected to account for 33% and 10%, respectively, of the increase in global meat production to 2014. In the OECD region, North America, which accounts for nearly 60% of total OECD meat production gains, is expected to contribute most to the projected medium term growth in global meat output.

Developing countries account for all of the global production growth for sugar World production of sugar is projected to increase to 178 million tonnes (raw sugar equivalent) in 2014. With OECD sugar production relatively stable at about 40 million tonnes, all of the increase of 30 million tonnes, or 20% to 2014, will be accounted for by developing countries. Production in these countries is projected to increase by 2.8% per year, reflecting a combination of higher yields and increased area harvested for sugar cane, the dominant sugar crop. Yield growth will account for all the increase in global sugar beet production as, with lower EU output, the area harvested declines slightly over the outlook period. Brazil, the world’s largest sugarcane and sugar producer, accounts for over 30% of the global increase in sugar output to 2014. Larger production is also expected in India.

Higher incomes and larger populations lead to world-wide consumption gains Increases in population – even though more moderate than in the past – and economic growth that leads to an increase in per capita incomes, are the major factors underlying a projection of increased agricultural demand and trade to 2014. Within these global trends, the changes occurring in these basic demand drivers in different parts of the world will also be important for the location of agricultural demand growth. Population growth rates in developing countries, while declining, are expected to remain above those in the OECD

22


OVERVIEW

area and in some transition economies such as the CIS countries. However, there are significant differences in projected population and income growth rates between the different regions of the world, as shown in Table 0.1. A comparison of developments over the period to 2014 with those of the previous ten years (1995-2004), indicates that the population growth rate will fall in all regions, but will remain highest in Africa. With respect to incomes, GDP growth is expected to be above average in some Asian and Latin American countries. The projections suggest consumption increases for all products and regions covered in this report. As shown in Table 0.2, of the products destined for human consumption, the vegetable oils group has the highest total annual growth rate of 2.8% between 2004 and 2014. Poultry meat and whole milk powder consumption are also expected to increase at rates of 2% or more per annum. Consumption of all products, except skim milk powder, is expected to grow at rates greater than, or at least to match, the growth in world population, providing the potential to reduce malnutrition and hunger. The diversification of diets is also illustrated in the growth rate of oilseeds, oilseed meals and coarse grains, products used in the production of livestock for meat and milk consumption. Oil meal consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.7% while coarse grains used for livestock feeding rather than food is expected to grow at 1.3% per annum.

Consumption to grow faster in developing countries In the more mature food markets of OECD countries, where incomes are generally high and basic dietary needs have long been more than satisfied, consumers continue to look for more variety in their diets, are becoming increasingly health and diet conscious and take more of their meals outside of the home. For these countries, consumption of butter and milk powders is projected to decline over the period to 2014. On the other hand, that of beef, pig meat and sugar post moderate growth rates as preferences shift towards products such as poultry meat, vegetable oils and cheese. And this shift in orientation is also reflected in oilseed and oilseed meals used in livestock feeding. Likewise, only moderate consumption growth is projected for cereals. Food and feed consumption in the developing countries is expected to continue to post the largest gains and to grow at rates much faster than in the OECD area. These are the countries where most of the world’s people live, where most of the population gains of around an additional 700 million people will occur, and where income growth is expected to remain strong. Continuing diversification of diets in these countries leads to consumption of meat, sugar, vegetable oils and dairy products to grow faster than that in the OECD area. These changing consumption patterns tend to accelerate as populations become concentrated in large urban centres, many of which are in the vicinity of ports connecting them to the world market. In addition, high consumption growth of final meat and dairy products leads to fast projected growth in indirect demand for products used in livestock feeding, such as coarse grains and especially oilseed meals. The higher consumption growth rates in developing countries during the projection period imply that an increasing share of agricultural produce is consumed outside the OECD area. For example, due to the drop in sugar consumption in the OECD area, the OECD’s share of global sugar consumption falls from 28% in 2004 to 25% at the end of the


23

OVERVIEW

projection period. Similarly, slow consumption growth rates for meat, dairy products and vegetable oils result in falling shares of consumption of these products in the OECD region. Consequently, the consumption share accounted for by the developing countries increases for all the 14 agricultural products that are covered by this outlook assessment, including those used for animal feedstuffs (Table 0.3).

Further growth in trade of food and feed… Little increase in world wheat and coarse grains trade occurred in the 1990s due mainly to lower imports by the CIS and countries of Central and East Europe that offset import growth elsewhere. However, with continuing growth in import demand, largely from developing countries, global grain trade is set to expand to 2014. The OECD area maintains its dominant share of exports of bulk commodities such as cereals and oilseeds and these are set to increase as population growth drives larger food grain imports by developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East. Other food grain importers include China, Egypt and Brazil for wheat and Indonesia and Bangladesh for rice. Changing diets and consumption patterns will also contribute to higher food grain imports in some developing countries. Rising incomes and increased meat consumption in developing countries is expected to lead to further growth in their domestic livestock production. This, in turn, drives increased imports of coarse grains and oilseeds by those countries and regions that are unable to meet their feedstuff needs, or vegetable oil consumption requirements, from domestic sources. Within the overall growth in food imports by LDCs, financial constraints could remain a limiting factor for some of the poorer ones. China is expected to become a larger importer of coarse grains along with other developing countries of East and South East Asia, and to remain the largest importer of oilseeds. Traditional cereal and oilseed exporters such as the United States, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Argentina and Brazil, are expected to account for the bulk of cereal and oilseed trade over the projection period, albeit with some adjustments in individual country market shares with the continuing ascendance of Latin American producers. In addition, traditional exporters will likely face increased competition from some emerging countries such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In contrast to the situation for cereals and oilseeds, developing countries, and particularly Brazil, dominate the world sugar market and are expected to maintain their position as the largest sugar producers, consumers and traders over the projection period.

… but growth in meat trade slowed by disease outbreaks Following the boost to livestock product trade during the last decade given by market opening measures under trade agreements, rising per capita income is the major driving force behind higher global meat demand over the coming ten year period. However, the residual effects of trade actions taken in response to recent animal disease outbreaks such as BSE and Avian influenza, as well as food safety and exchange rate issues, will have a continuing influence on global meat trade, benefiting South American and Oceania trade in the short and medium term. The outlook for the US and Canadian beef trade with Japan and Korea, in particular, will be determined by the timing of the abolition of BSE related trade measures.

24


OVERVIEW

In the meantime, interrupted beef trade flows and the concomitant impacts on Pacific beef market prices may result in some substitution of pork for beef in consumption and imports by these countries. This favours increased pork exports, in particular by the United States and the European Union. EU enlargement and the effects of the 2003 CAP reform measures are expected to continue to lead to adjustments of EU meat trade and export availabilities. Beef exports from Australia and New Zealand are projected to rise, particularly in the short term, to meet increased foreign demand in Asia and elsewhere. Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest importer of poultry, but those by China and Mexico are growing as well. OECD poultry exporters, such as the United States and the European Union, are expected to face increased competition from some developing countries such as Brazil, but less from others, such as Thailand due to the ongoing effect of Avian influenza. However, OECD countries are expected to continue to dominate international dairy product trade. Most of that trade is between these countries themselves, although import demand from developing countries continues to increase, with Russia an important export destination for butter.

Some important uncertainties in the outlook China’s cereal policy changes will affect world markets When considering cereal market developments over the coming decade, cereal policy developments in China remain the most important question. In the past, China has followed a policy of maintaining self-sufficiency for cereals at high levels in order to limit imports and dependency on international supplies. The projections assume a substantial opening of the Chinese market for wheat and coarse grains, particularly maize for feeding, resulting in significant imports in the course of the next few years. Given the sheer size of the Chinese market, a different path of policy development could have important implications on both Chinese and international markets. The large role that China plays in global rice production means that, along with India, it has considerable power to influence world rice trade and prices in the “thin” international rice market. China has been a net rice exporter in the 1990s, but the projection results indicate that Chinese rice markets turn to be largely balanced over the next decade. Since the country has agreed to let in up to 5.3 million tonnes of rice at a low preferential tariff, the scope for larger increases in imports does exist. But this would require a strong relaxation in the import regime, which would be a radical change in the prevailing government rice policy.

Asian soyabean rust could change the outlook for oilseed markets Asian soyabean rust has been detected in nine States of the United States in November 2004. The presence of this fungal disease is a source of concern for the US soyabean industry and can imply changes for soyabean plantings and yields in the early years of the projection period with significant market implications. Obviously, if some part of production of soyabeans in the US is lost, and to the extent that this reduction is not offset by increased output in Brazil or Argentina, then the reduction in supplies will lead to higher oilseed prices. This, in turn, would reduce crush industry demand for soyabeans and production of soyabean meal, with the result that oilseed meal market prices would increase as well. Such near-term consequences would impact on consumption with OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

25

OVERVIEW

subsequent consequences for planting decisions. In the long-term, if rust prevention procedures are adopted that raise costs for soyabean production in the US, or in other countries, this will have a negative impact on soyabean area and may cause a sustained longer term increase in oilseed and oilseed meal prices. The resulting higher feed costs would also affect livestock production, in particular that of non-ruminants.

Lifting of BSE related import bans affects beef trade The projections assume a gradual rebuilding of US and Canadian beef exports beginning in 2006 as agreements are reached with Japan, Korea and other Asian destinations that will permit resumption of trade, which was suspended following the detection of BSE in North America. Japanese imports of US beef are projected to grow over the coming ten years as the US industry applies the procedures under the October 2004 framework agreement concerning beef trade between the US and Japan. However, there are still uncertainties as to how long precisely the bans on trade in cattle and beef will remain in place. Any prolongation will have implications for investments in cattle production, meat trade volumes and Pacific beef prices over the projection period, with impacts on other meat markets and meat categories as well.

New issues and challenges in agricultural commodity markets Introduction The following concluding section in this year’s Overview addresses some of the new challenges that are emerging from the rapid evolution in global food markets. In the recent past, changes in agricultural commodity markets have been almost exclusively viewed as resulting from policy changes and internationally agreed upon trading rules, particularly those under the URAA. While policies and policy reform are still key drivers for the medium term outlook, the role of market determined and regulatory incentives are growing in the context of an increasingly globalised and integrated food economy. This section discusses the growing competition in world markets, the impacts of changing diets on world trade patterns, and, finally, the challenges presented by the global food system.

Increasing competition in world markets Growing importance of non-OECD exporting countries Trade in agricultural commodities will play a greater role in meeting the food needs of both developed and developing countries during the next decade, and particularly for least developed countries (LDCs). Competition among traditional exporters, mostly OECD countries, in meeting this demand is set to intensify, but a key development is both the emergence of new non-OECD exporters and the sustained performance of existing developing country exporters, particularly for temperate-zone commodities. Many of these commodities, which include wheat, coarse grains, rice, oilseeds, sugar and livestock products are often subject to a high degree of protection in OECD countries, with the level and variability of world prices influenced by trade restrictions and, in some instances, by various measures of export support.

26


OVERVIEW

Diversity of food sources is important for food security in food importing developing countries in that the risk for sufficient availability is spread across a broader array of potential suppliers. However, the growing role of trade in agricultural commodities in providing for food needs may at the same time increase the exposure of these countries to fluctuations in world commodity prices and to fluctuations in financial conditions. An extreme case is a net food importing developing country that depends on a single exported good for much of its economic growth and the majority of its access to foreign currency. Many developing countries have a comparative advantage in producing some primary or intermediate commodities: the costs of production are relatively low compared to other activities in those countries, either because production is relatively labour intensive or because climatic conditions in such countries suit their cultivation. With difficulties in pursuing north-south trade, prospects for developing countries increasingly centre on growth in south-south trade, i.e. trade among these countries themselves. The increasingly competitive environment that the Outlook foresees is by and large the outcome of actions taken by those developing countries that have made the necessary investments to their productive sectors and marketing and transport infrastructure; especially harnessing new technology and embracing the global market place.

Trade patterns change particularly for temperate-zone commodities A comprehensive exposition of trade patterns is provided in the commodity chapters, but as a precursor, Figure 0.3 illustrates changing net trade positions of countries/regions that deserve attention. Net grain imports of temperate-zone products by developing countries are expected to rise over the next ten years in contrast to somewhat subdued levels in the preceding decade. Reflecting this development, total wheat exports from the OECD area are expected to grow 15% over the period to 2014, compared to 25% for coarse grains. Countries situated in Asia, particularly China, account for much of this growth, but when compared to the previous decade, wheat imports are also expected to grow for other developing countries, such as Algeria, Brazil, Egypt and Indonesia. While OECD grain exports are increasing, with the US projected to remain the largest supplier of wheat to world markets, they are expected to face stiffer competition in maintaining market share from potentially large export availabilities in several transitional countries. Steadfast demand for oilseeds in traditional importing countries or regions such as the European Union, Japan and Korea, and more recently in China, which is expected to consolidate its position as the world’s largest oilseed importer, would lead to a marked expansion in the global oilseed market. OECD countries are projected to make little inroads as suppliers, and exports from Brazil and Argentina virtually dominate the expanding marketplace. Part of the reason for rapid expansion of oilseed exports in the latter countries is a development in their crush industries that lags growth in domestic production. As a result, Brazil may even bypass the US as the world’s leading oilseed exporter over the projection period. Projected developments in OECD beef trade point to some growth in exports by Australia with the European Union sustaining a net import position. With the gradual lifting of BSE related import bans imposed on US and Canadian beef exports, their former


27

OVERVIEW

Figure 0.3. Selected countries’ net trade positions in agricultural products Transitional

United States

Asia and Pacific

Non-OECD

Africa

Million tonnes 150 Grains 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Argentina

Brazil

Asia and Pacific

Non-OECD

China

Million tonnes 80 60 Oilseeds 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Australia

S. America

EU25

EU25

Canada

Brazil

United States

Asia and Pacific

Non-OECD

Transitional

Japan

Non-OECD

Million tonnes 5.0 Beef 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Million tonnes 5.0 Pork 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


market shares could be slow to rebuild. Expectations of a slow recovery of the US share in Asian markets will result in increased sales of beef from other countries in the Asian region, such as Australia and New Zealand. However, as for crop products, competition in global beef markets will increase too. The share of Mercosur countries in global beef exports is set to increase, with Brazil expected to become the world’s largest beef exporter over the projection period. Likewise, while OECD countries are anticipated to remain significant pig meat exporters, additional supplies needed for a growing global pork market are expected to be met by Brazil, which, as for many other commodities, is expanding investment in the sector. Similarly, this country is positioned to maintain its role as the largest exporter of poultry meat. The outlook for poultry also foresees Thailand to remain an important net exporting country, provided that problems with avian influenza are kept in check. While international dairy markets remain thin, with only about 7% of global milk production traded, some import growth is nevertheless expected over the period to 2014, both in OECD and a number of very dispersed, non-OECD countries or regions. There is growing trade in particular in milk powders, notably WMP, to satisfy food security needs in many African countries and food processing requirements in Asia. On the export side, the situation for dairy products is somewhat different than for crops and meat products. The European Union and New Zealand continue to dominate these markets, even though export shares for the European Union are projected either to fall or to remain flat. New Zealand, on the other hand, will maintain its strong presence in particular in the butter, cheese and powdered milk markets. Nevertheless, the appearance of Argentina as a

28


OVERVIEW

Figure 0.3. Selected countries’ net trade positions in agricultural products (cont.) Brazil

United States

Russia

Transitional

Thailand

EU25

New Zealand

Non-OECD

Africa

Asia and Pacific

Million tonnes 8.0 Poultry 6.0

Million tonnes 2.0 Whole milk powder 1.5

4.0

1.0

2.0

0.5

0

0

-2.0

-0.5

-4.0

-1.0

-6.0

-1.5

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 EU25

Argentina Non-OECD

New Zealand

Asia and Pacific

Russia

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Transitional Non-OECD

Million tonnes 0.8 Butter 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Thailand

EU25

Africa

Non-OECD

China

Million tonnes 15.0 Rice 10.0

Brazil

Indonesia China

Africa

Malaysia Non-OECD

Million tonnes 50.0 Vegetable oils 40.0 30.0

5.0

20.0

0

10.0

-5.0

0

-10.0 -15.0

Argentina

-10.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-20.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014



major whole milk powder (WMP) supplier might eventually challenge New Zealand’s dominance. Argentina and some eastern European countries are also emerging as increasing exporters of SMP.

South-south trade flows dominate rice, vegetable oil and sugar markets Global trade flows for rice, sugar and vegetable oils are dominated by developing countries. For rice, a considerable expansion in the international market is expected. By the end of the projection period, prospects for sub-Saharan Africa point to it being the largest rice net importing region, with imports in Central America and the Caribbean and OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

29

OVERVIEW

countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Bangladesh also increasing. Asia, and in particular Thailand and Vietnam, is sustaining its role as the largest rice net-exporting region. OECD countries, as a group, are set to retain their net export status for rice, but this disguises some marked trends within this group. For example, rice exports by the United States are projected to rise sharply, but the European Union is anticipated to become an increasingly significant net importer of the commodity, following recent rice policy changes. Likewise, the international market for vegetable oils is projected to expand, with South America, Asia and Africa again weighing heavily on trade flows. Utilisation of vegetable oil is varied. In Africa, it constitutes an important source of food calories, while in Asia, industrial usage is relatively more important. Buoyant demand in China would lead the country to become the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, followed by India which is projected to maintain imports roughly at current levels. South America, driven by Argentina and Brazil, features as a major exporting region of vegetable oils, but in terms of trade shares, the region is dwarfed by exports from the palm oil producers of Indonesia and Malaysia. Brazil remains the largest world sugar exporter, with combined sales of both raw and white sugar projected to increase by nearly 44% over the ten years of the projection period. Despite expectations of continuing low world prices, moderately larger sugar exports are projected for Thailand, Cuba, South Africa and Australia as these countries seek to improve their efficiency and productivity. Lower exports are projected over the projection period for African, Caribbean and Pacific developing countries, despite the fact that they benefit from market access to the high priced EU and US markets. This development does not consider yet the potential impact of lower EU prices due to the reform of its sugar regime; proposals for which were still under discussion at the time of writing this report. Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest sugar importer, but imports by the EU under the Everything But Arms (EBA) initiative are expected to expand also, by about 2 million tonnes by 2014.

Greater competition and continued productivity gains in agriculture mean lower prices On the whole, competition in global commodity markets is expected to intensify over the coming ten years, with growing supplies to world markets from lower cost, and sometimes non-traditional, exporting countries. At the same time, global productivity growth for many commodities is expected to maintain a similar momentum over the period as during the previous decade. Current yield differentials between OECD and non-OECD countries are large. While they are expected to remain high, projections nevertheless suggest that yield growth in the latter group of countries will be considerably faster, particularly for rice, wheat and oilseeds, as illustrated in Table 0.4. Such advances in productivity reduce marginal costs, enabling exporting countries, at given prices, to increase production at a rate that outpaces both population growth and expanding demand fuelled by rising incomes. It is this decline in marginal costs, coupled with an increase in the share of low cost producers in world trade, which explains the continued fall in real world market prices that is foreseen for most commodities over the medium term.

30


OVERVIEW

Table 0.4. Crop yield projections (t/ha) Annual growth (%)a Average 2002-04

2014 1995-04

2005-14

World Wheat

2.7

3.049

1.16

1.04

Coarse grains

3.1

3.4

2.00

0.90

Rice

2.7

3.0

0.60

0.93

Oilseeds

2.0

2.3

1.80

1.26

0.96

OECD Wheat

3.2

3.5

0.92

Coarse grains

5.3

6.2

1.60

1.34

Rice

4.9

5.3

0.69

0.56

Oilseeds

2.4

2.7

0.84

1.02

Wheat

2.4

2.8

1.28

1.08

Coarse grains

2.1

2.4

1.80

0.98

Rice

2.6

2.9

0.75

0.96

Oilseeds

1.8

2.1

2.47

1.49

Non-OECD

a) The least squares growth rate, r is estimated by fitting a linear regression trend line as follows: Ln(xt) = a + r * t Econometrics and models and Econometrics forecasts, Robert S. Pindyck, Daniel L. Rubinfeld, p. 469. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


But policies continue to matter Despite the above presented structural changes in world commodity markets, the influence of agricultural and trade polices should not be underplayed. These policies, and their reforms, continue to play an important role both in the case of particular country outcomes and in influencing world price and trade prospects. For instance, greater competition in the global wheat market, coupled with lower world prices expressed in euros, could see some recourse to the use of export subsidies again in the European Union. The EU sugar regime is under review and depending on what reforms are eventually adopted could make it less attractive for EBA and ACP sugar exporters. Likewise, the marketing loan program and payment provisions under the present US Farm Bill continue to impact on crop markets. The incidence of a bumper cereal crop and a recovery of sugar production in India could see the country once again dispose of its surpluses on the international market through the use of export subsidies. Domestic policy reform in the grain sectors of transition economies, especially Ukraine and Russia, could result in further inroads to OECD export shares. In addition, the slow growth in trade of processed food products since the mid-1990s has often been attributed to existing multilateral trade rules that favour trade in raw or bulk commodities at the expense of processed products. However, as discussed below, the relative importance of bulk commodities in global trade may well decline over the outlook period.


31

OVERVIEW

Trade is affected by changing diets More competitive markets, changes in the pattern of production, advances in technology and changes in domestic and trade policies play an important role in determining the structure of international trade. However, changes in the commodity markets that are covered in the Outlook are arguably, for an increasing part, demand driven. Despite substantial differences in the trade and dietary profiles of OECD and non-OECD countries, there are nevertheless also certain similarities for particular food commodities. For instance, among the four broad food commodity groups covered by the Outlook – cereals, edible oils, animal products and sugar – cereals once dominated international trade. Now, however, the share of cereals in total agricultural imports has fallen below 50% in non-OECD countries and below one-third in OECD countries. While the share of cereal imports has declined, both developed and developing countries are importing greater quantities of highervalue and processed agricultural goods, such as dairy and livestock products. This development in the composition of trade is a reflection of income growth, relative price changes, urbanisation and shifts in consumer preferences, which have altered dietary patterns in both OECD and non-OECD countries. With rising incomes, consumers add more variety and more expensive and higher-value foods to their diets. These changes are reflected in both the projected volume and the composition of world trade in agricultural commodities. Expenditures on foodstuffs and responses to income changes differ between developed and developing countries. In OECD countries, most consumers can readily afford the foods they prefer. When incomes rise, changes in diets and food purchases in these mature markets are therefore relatively small. In developing countries, on the other hand, rising incomes have an immediate and pronounced impact on diets, which evolve to include more protein and higher value food items. And these changes are then reflected both in bulk commodity trade as in trade in processed agricultural products. Declining real food prices, at existing income levels, will have similar effects. As a result of these changes, per capita meat consumption in non-OECD countries, for example, has more than doubled since the mid 1970s. The projections show that over the next decade consumers in developing countries will continue to increase the quantity of meat and vegetable oils in their diets, while that of rice will decline (Table 0.5). Per capita consumption of cereals in these countries is not expected to change, although total cereal utilisation will continue to rise owing to population growth and the greater use of coarse grains as feed. In addition to rising incomes, rapid urbanisation has also contributed to changes in lifestyles and food preferences and thereby impacted on the structure of commodity trade. In recent years, these developments have been particularly noticeable in developing countries. As their numbers and purchasing power have grown, city dwellers have increased demand not only for more dietary diversity, but also for convenience products that require less time to prepare. Imports of high-value and processed food products have risen to meet this demand. According to United Nations estimates, the world’s urban population is expected to increase by almost 25% by 2015 – a phenomenon affecting most developing countries in Africa and Asia. By that time, well over half of the world’s population is expected to live in cities. Coupled with higher incomes, the distinct lifestyles of urban habitants is likely to contribute to the acceleration of the trend towards a growing share of high-value and processed foodstuffs in global trade.

32


OVERVIEW

Table 0.5. Per capita consumption for selected commodities Annual growth (%)a Average 2002-04

2014 1995-04

2005-14

0.27

World Wheat

81.6

82.4

–0.36

Coarse grains

56.4

59.9

1.07

0.33

Rice

69.9

69.4

0.08

0.02

Meat

31.2

34.5

3.38

0.88

Vegetable oils

13.1

16.4

3.62

1.73

0.58

OECD Wheat

107.3

112.4

0.52

Coarse grains

114.5

131.6

3.30

0.70

19.6

19.0

0.42

–0.17

Rice Meat

64.5

69.9

7.03

0.73

Vegetable oils

21.6

26.1

1.62

1.56

Wheat

75.5

75.7

–0.37

0.22

Coarse grains

42.4

43.8

–0.40

0.32

Rice

82.0

80.7

0.10

–0.06

Non-OECD

Meat

23.2

26.5

1.64

1.18

Vegetable oils

11.0

14.3

4.64

1.91

a) The least squares growth rate, r is estimated by fitting a linear regression trend line as follows: Ln(xt) = a + r * t Econometrics and models and Econometrics forecasts, Robert S. Pindyck, Daniel L. Rubinfeld, p. 469. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


The challenges presented by the global food system In addition to the demand factors mentioned above, the increasing concentration and globalisation of the food industry are also among the key drivers of shifting trade patterns of agricultural commodities. Globalisation, or the dynamic process of rapid economic integration, through reductions in trade and investment barriers and lower transport and transactions costs, is manifest in the emergence of multinational corporations. The food industry is no exception to this and a rapid rise is occurring in globally operating and more and more concentrated supermarket chains. But the increasingly integrated global trade environment also leads to convergence in dietary preferences and patterns across countries, and this, in turn, is stimulating the ongoing structural changes in food processing and retailing. Thus, to a large degree, multinational food companies are the cause and the consequence of the evolving global food system. By their nature, these multinational food companies transcend national borders and give rise to greater interdependence of economies and larger trade flows. To manage and harmonise product flows along the food chain, they also are at the basis of vertically co-ordinated marketing systems. The purpose of these systems is to ensure that product and process requirements for food products are met at all stages of the supply chain, thereby reducing transactions costs. Thus, evolving globalised systems of food production and retailing are becoming an element of increasing importance with respect to the integration of developing countries into global food markets. Not without controversy, globalisation has brought about gains for those who have participated in the process, by increasing the returns on investment for producers and providing consumers with greater product variety at lower prices. OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

33

OVERVIEW

Industry requirements must be met to participate in the global value chain To the extent that developments in the global food economy are determined by multinational companies, it is these firms that determine product sourcing and trade flows. For producers of farm produce, therefore, to become part of the global food value chain, it is imperative that they meet the requirements of these companies, which in turn reflect consumer preferences, civil society concerns as well as industry efforts to improve the efficiency of moving produce along the food chain. And this counts for producers in developed and developing countries alike. However, in particular for developing countries, there is growing concern that even if further progress is made in reducing restrictive border measures in OECD countries (such as for instance under the EBA initiative of the European Union), market access to these countries is also hindered by the fact that producers in developing countries may not always be able to meet food company requirements. Participation in the global food system, or the ability to access the global value chain, will require that farmers’ production methods are not only efficient and competitive, but also such that produce meets required specifications. These specifications can relate to product attributes that reflect greater demands by modern consumers for food safety, product quality or year-round availability, for instance. But they can also translate in equally strict process attributes, e.g. with respect to the use or not of chemicals, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) or pesticides in the production of vegetal foodstuffs, whether animal welfare has been respected in the production of meat and dairy products or whether environmental requirements have been met. Within this overall development, there is a role for markets where certain requirements are less strict and prices proportionally lower. Where food is available at standards that exceed the minimum legal requirements, consumers that have full information should be able to make the decision whether they wish to pay a lower price for items that meet these minimum requirements, or to pay a premium for food offered by producers and processors who choose to supply at a higher standard. Farmers who are unable or unwilling to meet the highest standards could compete efficiently in these markets where standards are less exacting. In the context of the ongoing structural and organisational changes in the food economy, globally operating food processors and retailers increasingly take recourse to their own private product and process standards to ensure that produce has the attributes required by final consumers. Agents wishing to participate in the global value chain will thus be increasingly required to demonstrate that these standards are met. This can necessitate large-scale investments and adjustment, in particular for farmers in developing countries.

Policies play a role in this The question of access to protected markets, not just in OECD countries but also in a number of developing countries, is one of the key issues in ongoing multilateral trade negotiations. While market access is not uniquely a developing country interest, for many of these countries there is more at stake, as freer trade in agricultural products is an element in their economic development, given the much larger share that agriculture represents in these countries’ total GDP. Economic growth in developing countries stands

34


OVERVIEW

to gain from greater access to markets in OECD countries, as well as from improved possibilities to export to other developing countries in the event that they, too, reduce border protection. But, as argued above, the removal of barriers to capital flows and the removal of trade and competition restrictions may not be sufficient to obtain that objective. In a developed economy, the market should be counted upon to provide the required incentives to those sectors that need to change. In a developing country context, concerted action may be useful to enable farmers to adjust to the requirements of modern food processors and retailers, so that small-scale agriculture in these countries can co-exist with globally operating multinational food companies and reap the benefits accruing to globalisation. That numerous developed and developing countries have already successfully put in place a framework to reap these benefits is visible in the Outlook. For those other developing countries that can take advantage of the opportunities provided by the changing and increasingly globalising food trade system, this system has the potential to be an engine of development.


35


Chapter 1

Cereals


37

1. CEREALS

World market trends and prospects* Key market drivers After four consecutive years of global cereal production lower than total use, world cereal markets in the 2004 marketing year saw a record harvest with a total production quantity of wheat, coarse grains and rice at more than two billion tonnes. This reflected increased wheat and rice plantings due to higher prices following the poor crops in 2002 and 2003 and above average yields in major producing regions. Wheat production jumped by more than 11%, while that of coarse grains and rice increased by 8% and 4%, respectively. World cereal stocks, which declined by more than 250 mt between 1999 and 2003 (mostly due to huge stock draw-downs in China), increased by almost 20 mt in 2004. International rice quotations continued their increasing trend after their low in 2002 as, despite the 4% rise, global production was still insufficient to cover total consumption. While world prices for wheat and coarse grains dropped from their latest peaks reached in 2002 and 2003, respectively, they remained nevertheless at levels significantly above the lows seen in the late 1990s (Figure 1.1). Assuming normal weather conditions and a continuation of current agricultural policies, much of the cereal outlook is driven by the relative performance of income growth versus technical progress. Increased purchasing power in many of the developing countries results in growing demand for higher-value food, especially meat and dairy products. The anticipated growth of the livestock industry gives rise to higher demand for feed grains in particular. On the supply side, yield growth is expected to be a major factor driving up cereal supplies, even though expansion of the area planted to cereals will also play an important role in some countries. Already among the main players in world cereal markets, China’s role is likely to become even more important in future years. Having reduced its large stocks dramatically over the past five years, it will have to source its growing demand for cereals either from a rebounding domestic production or from substantial purchases on international markets. Even though wheat import quotas agreed with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) still remain unfilled, China’s imports of wheat have already increased to their highest levels since 1995. India is another major player in global cereal markets, particularly for rice. In recent years successive record crops resulted in large replenishments of cereal inventories in India, well above Government targets. As a result, India has been scaling down its burdensome stockpiles since last year, mostly through sales onto the world market at subsidised prices, thereby putting the brunt of the adjustment on external market players. Finally, some of the former Soviet Republics, most notably Russia and Ukraine, could establish themselves as important grain exporters if improvements in land legislation, infrastructure and capital endowment were achieved.

* All dates are on a marketing year basis (e.g. 2004 represents the 2004/05 marketing year) unless stated otherwise.

38


1. CEREALS

Figure 1.1. Nominal cereal prices to increase – but changes are significant only for rice USD/tonne 240

USD/tonne 200

USD/tonne 400

Wheata 180

150

300

120

100

200

60 1984

89

94

Ricec

Maizeb

99

2004

09

14

50 1984

89

94

99

2004

09

14

100 1984

89

94

99

2004

09

14

a) No. 2 hard red winter, ordinary protein, wheat, USA, f.o.b. Gulf Ports. b) No. 2 yellow corn, USA, f.o.b., Gulf Ports. c) Milled, 100% B rice, f.o.b. Thailand. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


Given the importance of rice for food security, social stability and income generation, governments in developing countries are anticipated to maintain considerable discretionary power to influence the sector in the coming decade. Self-sufficiency should remain a primary objective in the major rice importing countries, in particular Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Nigeria. All these countries, however, face severe physical and resource constraints. Resource constraints will likely also influence production strategies in traditional net exporters in the developing world, with the rice land base staying fairly stable in countries such as Egypt, Vietnam or China. As for OECD countries, further reforms to their rice policies have been implemented in the past two years, which consolidated the shift away from commodity market support towards direct payments to farmers.

Main market developments Yield developments are key to growth in global grain production World cereal production is expected to grow mainly due to rising yields, while area expansion is largely limited to certain areas, most notably Latin America. Total cereal output is projected to grow by some 11% between 2004 and 2014, with most of the growth occurring outside the OECD area. The projected growth is expected to be particularly strong in non-OECD countries, mostly driven by faster advancements in yields among the transitional countries and stronger expansion in plantings in Asia. The rise in total cereal utilization is likely to keep pace with the projected increase in production, mostly on account of growth in developing countries where feed usage, in particular, is projected to increase in response to stronger demand for livestock products. World cereal stocks are projected to remain close to their levels at the base period with small increases in the OECD area compensating for a decline in other countries, mainly in China and India. With global stocks mostly unchanged and utilization rising, the cereal stocks-to-use ratio is projected to decline even below the historical low levels of the base period. For grains, this may result in higher price volatility in world markets but not necessarily in much higher prices because of the anticipated subdued world import demand in the face of large exportable supplies. For rice, prices are projected to increase in view of a tighter supply and demand perspective. In real terms, rice prices should remain relatively flat, while world wheat and maize prices are expected to continue their longer-term declining trend (Figure 1.2). OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

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Figure 1.2. Global cereal stocks to bottom out soon – wheat and coarse grain prices to continue declining in real terms Non-OECD wheat stocks OECD wheat stocks Real world wheat pricea USD/tonne 300

Non-OECD coarse grains stocks OECD coarse grain stocks Real world maize priceb USD/tonne million tonnes 180 300

a

Wheat

160

250

150

100

80

100

60

80

60 40

50 0 1999

120 200 80

100

20 2004

09

14

Coarse grains

USD/tonne million tonnes 140 180 120 160 140 100 120

140

200

b

Non-OECD rice stocks OECD rice stocks Real world rice pricec

0

250

150 100

40

50 0 1999

20 2004

09

14

0

USD/tonne 300

c

Rice

200

100

60 40 20 0 1999

2004

09

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0

a) No. 2 hard red winter, ordinary protein, wheat, USA, f.o.b. Gulf Ports. b) No. 2 yellow corn, USA, f.o.b., Gulf Ports. c) Milled, 100% B rice, f.o.b. Thailand. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


The overall trade structure in terms of major exporters and importers may see little change over the projection period. For grains, the top five major exporters are expected to confront stiffer competition in world markets because of the projected large exportable supplies in transitional countries. On the import side, with a few exceptions, little change is expected in the trade position of the traditional large grain importing countries, which are likely to continue to rely on foreign purchases to meet their growing domestic requirements.

A moderate increase in world wheat production Comparing 2014 to the high production level in 2004, global wheat output is projected to grow at a modest rate from 621 mt to 688 mt. Average yields are set to slow down in a number of OECD regions, including the US, the EU, Mexico, Turkey and New Zealand. In Australia, yield growth is expected to recover somewhat relative to the poor performance in 2004 and particularly 2002. Wheat yields in Brazil where very high in 2003 and 2004, and assuming normal weather conditions, 2014 yields are expected not to reach the 2003 peak again. In Argentina, productivity growth is expected to continue its upward path. In Asia, water scarcity remains a major challenge, constraining output potential in several major producing countries such as China. Among other producers, higher plantings and yields are expected to result in larger outputs in Egypt and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Productivity gains in most of the African continent are expected to remain relatively small, but could be supplemented by increased plantings to maintain output growth over the projection period. At the same time, the scope for a number of transition countries to advance on productivity gains remains strong. Despite the higher growth rates for feed use in most countries, wheat primarily remains a food grain. World wheat utilisation is projected to rise at about the same rate as in the previous decade, slowing down somewhat within the OECD but accelerating in the developing world. In the developing countries, the projected growth is expected to keep pace

40


1. CEREALS

Figure 1.3. Average cereal yields projected to grow steadily Wheat

t/ha 4

Coarse grains

t/ha 7

OECD

OECD

6

3

5

OECD

5 Non-OECD

4

4

2

3

3

Non-OECD

2

1

2

Non-OECD

1

1 0 1998

2002

2006

2010

0 1998

2014

Rice

t/ha 6

2002

2006

2010


2014

0 1998

2002

2006

2010

2014


Figure 1.4. Non-OECD food use remains predominant for wheat – but feed use to grow rapidly Kt 700 600 500 400

62.2%

Non-OECD food

62.0%

5.4%

Non-OECD feed

6.6%

20.9%

OECD food

20.3%

11.4%

OECD feed

11.1%

300 200 100 0

2004

2014

Note: Food includes all uses except feed. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


with the growth in population, and overall per capita consumption is seen to remain stable among most of them. However, for some higher income countries, wheat consumption is projected to decline slightly with higher value food products taking its place. Global wheat stocks are projected to slowly rise to about 190 mt by 2014, some 11% higher than in 2004. Higher stocks are mostly the result of a likely build-up of inventories among the major wheat exporters and the countries in transition while stocks held in the two leading wheat producing countries of China and India are projected to remain close to their 2004 levels. The share of the five big wheat exporters, Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the US, in global wheat stocks is thus expected to increase from 28% to 30%. Despite increasing stocks, global stock-to-use ratios are projected to remain around 28% throughout the projection period, down from more than 43% in the late 1990s. Lower inventories in China, which represented 50% of world wheat stocks in the mid-1990s, compared to less than 30% projected for 2014, account for most of this projected decline.


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Wheat prices continue to fall in real terms Nominal world prices for wheat are projected to increase only slightly in the medium term. Increasing wheat imports by several countries in Asia, including China, could drive wheat prices up by some 10% during the first few marketing years of the projection period, but prices are expected to fall again somewhat thereafter, ending at around USD 160/t by 2014, 6% above their 2004 levels. In real terms, wheat prices are projected to fall by some 11% over the same period. International trade in wheat is projected to expand, mostly because of higher import demand in a number of developing countries (Figure 1.5). In China, limited area and modest yield potentials are expected to keep production well below total domestic use for the next years. With stocks already much reduced, imports are expected to reach the TRQ level this decade before the supply-demand gap starts to sufficiently narrow down to reduce imports somewhat. Higher imports compared to the previous decade are expected also for Algeria, Brazil, Egypt and Indonesia. In contrast, government support in pursue of wheat self-sufficiency is expected to drive up domestic production in Iran, causing imports to stay relatively low as compared to the previous 10 years.

Figure 1.5. Wheat exports from major suppliers to grow as imports by developing countries expand Wheat major importers

Wheat major exporters USA EU25

Australia Argentina

China EU25

Canada Russia

mt 120

mt 60

100

50

80

40

60

30

40

20

20

10

0 1996

2000

2005


2010

2014

0 1996

Egypt Japan

2000

2005

Brazil Indonesia

2010

2014


Russia and Ukraine are known to have a significant export potential for wheat. Provided normal weather conditions to prevail and progress in domestic reforms to continue, this potential should be able to materialise to some degree. These two countries are expected to maintain combined wheat net exports at between 11 mt and 13 mt per year, slightly more than in 2004 but substantially less than in 2002 when they collected a record harvest. Other former Soviet Republics, most notably Kazakhstan, are expected to establish themselves as significant wheat exporters, and could, with normal weather conditions, provide up to 9 mt per year to the international market. Developments in currency markets and exchange rates will continue to be an important determinant of the size of wheat exports from the EU. With an exchange rate assumed to remain at EUR/USD 0.77, or just under USD/EUR 1.30, the EU is projected to be able to export a significant share of its wheat surplus only with refunds. Domestic wheat

42


1. CEREALS

prices are expected to change very little in nominal terms, resulting in fluctuating, though moderate, intervention stocks. Higher world wheat prices should, however, also allow for some unsubsidised exports as well in certain periods, highlighting the importance of the exchange rate assumption. Reflecting the escalating freight rates and overall transport costs, unsubsidised shipments could take place especially to nearby markets in Africa and the near East. As a whole, the OECD area is projected to remain an important supplier of wheat to developing countries. Net-imports of developing countries are projected to increase by 8 mt to about 56 mt in 2014; this represents some 12% of these countries’ total wheat use. The US remains the largest supplier to international wheat markets with exports projected to expand even further, by 27% between 2004 and 2014.

Growth in coarse grain production due to more area planted as well as higher yields For the second consecutive year, world coarse grain markets have seen a record crop with more than 1 billion tonnes harvested in 2004. Despite some reduction in area harvested, higher yields resulted in an 8% increase in global production. Assuming a return to average yields, production is projected to decline by 35 mt in 2005, reflecting lower output mostly in North America and Europe where yields were exceptionally high in 2004. Global coarse grain production is projected to increase somewhat faster thereafter compared to wheat, and to reach some 1 109 mt in 2014 – about 11% above the 2004 level. This growth is likely to be achieved by an increase in plantings and also a slight gain in productivity through advancement in yields, especially among the developing countries and the countries in transition. The growth in land used for coarse grains in the developing countries is likely to accelerate in China, several countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Productivity gains are likely to prove most pronounced among the countries in transition. Almost two-thirds of all coarse grains are used for feed in the livestock sector, and feed use remains an important driving force in consumption growth. With the livestock industries expanding particularly in many developing countries, feed use is expected to increase strongly in these regions. Particularly high growth rates are expected for India, Africa and Latin America. Less growth is projected for most OECD countries as meat and dairy markets are closer to saturation. Lower grain prices in the EU due to the reduction of price support in the recent CAP reform could stimulate feed use, but growth remains weak (Figure 1.6). Food consumption growth of coarse grains is projected to slow down significantly compared to past trends and per capita food use should decline slightly among those regions where coarse grains (such as white maize) traditionally constitute an important staple, namely in Africa and Latin America. A significant share of coarse grains, mainly maize, is also used for the production of fuel ethanol, and the ethanol industry is expected to continue to expand, particularly in the US. World stocks of coarse grains are projected to fall significantly in the early years of the outlook before following a more stable path. After the increase in 2004, mostly due to the very good harvests in the US and the EU, stocks are expected to stabilise assuming a return to more normal yields in the following years. Global coarse grains stocks in 2014 are projected to be almost 15% or 28 million tonnes below their 2004 levels and hence close to those seen in 2003. These stock draw-downs are almost entirely due to sometimes substantial reductions in the US and China.


43

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Figure 1.6. Non-OECD feed use of coarse grains to grow fastest as livestock sectors expand Kt 1 200 1 000 20.6%

Non-OECD food

19.0%

28.5%

Non-OECD feed

32.6%

12.09%

OECD food

13.0%

38.0%

OECD feed

35.4%

800 600 400 200 0

2004

2014

Note: Food includes all uses except feed. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


Better price prospects for coarse grains than for wheat Lower stocks, increasing import demand in most developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and diminishing export availabilities in several countries (including China, Brazil and the Republic of South Africa) should lift world coarse grains prices above current levels, with most of the changes expected in the early years of the outlook. The US export price of maize could increase by 16% in nominal terms between 2004 and 2006, but change only very little thereafter. Adjusted for inflation, world coarse grain prices in 2014 should approach current levels. Relative to wheat, coarse grain prices are therefore projected to catch up somewhat relative to 2004.

Developing countries are the predominant source of global import demand With increased demand from several developing countries, global trade in coarse grains is expected to expand. The US remains the predominant supplier to world markets, increasing their coarse grains exports by more than one fourth over the outlook period (Figure 1.7). Coarse grain exports by Argentina, another major – though smaller – exporter, are projected to grow by almost two-thirds. On the other hand, assuming a fairly unfavourable exchange rate, the EU is not expected to export significant amounts of coarse grains without subsidies, with the exception of malting barley. Coarse grain exports other than malting barley are therefore likely to be bound by the WTO limits on subsidised exports. Nevertheless, relative to the lows in 2004, total EU exports are projected to increase by 15% over the projection period. Russia has moved back and forth, from a net exporter to a net importer in recent years. With an emerging livestock industry consuming substantial amounts of feed grains, however, domestic production is not expected to keep pace with the growth in demand. Consequently, Russia is projected to become a moderate importer of foreign coarse grains, although net imports are expected to remain below 5% of domestic consumption. In contrast, Ukraine has developed a persistent export capacity not only for wheat, but equally for coarse grains, and is expected to further expand exports, to around 5 million tonnes per year. Further improvements in land legislation and infrastructure could result in even larger exportable supplies.

44


1. CEREALS

Figure 1.7. US and Argentinean coarse grains exports to find increased markets in China and some other developing countries Coarse grains major importers

Coarse grains major exporters USA Australia

Argentina Ukraine

Japan Saudi Arabia

EU25 Canada

mt 120

mt 70

100

60

Mexico China

Korea Egypt

50

80

40

60

30

40

20

20

10

0 1996

2000

2005

2010

0 1996

2014

2000


2005

2010

2014


China is expected to become a significant net importer of coarse grains as supplies from stock sales decline, demand from livestock industries increases, and the traditional self-sufficiency policy is relaxed, particularly for feed grains (Figure 1.7). Substantially larger imports are also projected for Egypt, Brazil, Mexico and Saudi Arabia (Figure 1.8). Japan is expected to remain the largest importer of coarse grains, but as imports are set to fall slightly, its share in global imports is projected to decline. Likewise, Korean imports are projected to change very little as wheat is increasingly used instead of coarse grains in the Korean feed mix. Overall, and mostly due to the US dominance in the coarse grains market, the OECD export share in world trade is expected to grow. Net trade between OECD and non-OECD

Figure 1.8. Increased net imports of cereals by non-OECD countries as production, fails to keep pace with consumption growth Consumption

Production

Net imports (right scale)

Million tonnes 1 500

Million tonnes 150

1 500 1 300 100

1 200 1 100 1 000

50

900 800 700

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

0

Note: Consumption includes all uses. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



45

1. CEREALS

countries is projected to expand by almost 70% over the ten-year projection period to reach 44 million tonnes in 2014. This would represent almost 8% of total consumption outside the OECD area by 2014.

Modest projected growth in rice production, mainly a reflection of productivity gains Assuming a normal weather pattern, rice production is projected to grow to 466 million tonnes by 2014, up from 408 million tonnes in 2004, partly reflecting a recovery of the rice land base to levels witnessed in the late 1990s. However, most of the production gain should arise from yield improvements, often associated with the granting of government subsidies on high quality seeds, irrigation and extension. According to the projections, average rice yields are set to rebound somewhat but still remain on a modest growth path over the coming decade. Much of the observed gains in the 1990s have been associated with the dissemination of high-yielding or hybrid rice varieties, especially in Asia where government programmes have been established to that end in all the major producing countries. In China, where hybrid rice cultivation is already entrenched, further increases in yields will largely hinge on the introduction of the genetically modified “super rice” strain, which boosts productivity by up to 35%. In 2004, the country reported to have planted 2.5 million hectares with super rice varieties, an area set to expand to 4 million hectares in 2005. Countries in South America may also choose to rely increasingly on GM rice. In Argentina, for instance, twenty modified rice varieties were released for field-testing in 2003, up from only four in 2002. In Africa, the creation of Nerica (an hybrid of African and Asian rice) also raised the hope of a belated “green revolution” in the region. Facilitated by the mapping of the rice genome in 2001, new strains of rice have been developed, which enhanced the nutritional value of rice, the plant resistance to pest and diseases or its tolerance to extreme growing conditions, such as soil salinity or acidity. However, although the impacts of such technological breakthroughs on rice production, consumption and trade are potentially huge, much will depend on the acceptance of the new strains by farmers and consumers alike and, in most developing countries, on continuing institutional support to facilitate their adoption.

Global rice production growth concentrated in developing countries In Asia, the area under rice, which was heavily curtailed in the early 2000s in the wake of very low market prices, is anticipated to rebound, but rising yields should remain the major factor underlying the projected 1% annual growth in production. Output increases are anticipated in all the major producing countries in the region, but especially in Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia and Thailand, where the sector should continue to benefit from strong institutional support. Significant production gains are also foreseen in Africa, in particular in Nigeria, which substantially raised border protection in the past few years and launched the “President Rice Initiative” to assist paddy farmers. Egypt is also projected to record steady production growth, despite severe land and water constraints. The sector should recover in South America, underpinned in Argentina and Uruguay by rising demand for export. Rice production in OECD countries, representing less than 6% of the world total, is projected to remain almost unchanged, with strongly rising yields compensating for a continued fall in plantings. While rice output is expected to keep a positive trend in the United States, it is projected to fall in Japan and the Republic of Korea, consistent with on-going land diversion programmes in the two countries. Rice production in Australia, which was

46


1. CEREALS

negatively affected by three years of consecutive droughts, is projected to recover by 2014. In the European Union, the shift of support from market incentives to direct income support through the Single Farm Payment may stall growth in the sector. Moreover, the new policy regime is foreseen to encourage some producers to shift land out of rice, either to other crops or to fallow, as plantings are projected to fall short of the overall national guaranteed base area.

Population growth drives rice consumption Although the utilization of rice for feed increased in recent years, rice remains essentially a grain for human consumption and a staple food for about half of the world population. World-wide, per capita rice consumption stagnated in the past decade, reflecting changes in dietary patterns away from rice in Southeast Asia, while large increases were witnessed in Africa and in Central America and the Caribbean. Over the next ten years, average per capita rice consumption is expected to rise slightly until 2008, as rice demand still responds positively to income growth in many poor Asian countries and in Africa. Per capita consumption starts falling thereafter reaching 69.4 kg in 2014, marginally lower than in 2004. As a result, population growth will be the major force underpinning rice demand over the projection period, giving rise to a quantum jump of only 44 million tonnes in aggregate consumption between 2004 and 2014. Much of the gain should originate in Asian countries, with a sizeable increase also foreseen in Africa, driven by a shift in tastes away from the traditional cassava, maize or millet staples, largely associated with the process of urbanization. Consumption of rice is expected to grow little in the OECD area. While in Japan and Korea, the main rice consuming OECD countries, demand for rice is declining (in Korea only after rebounding from its drop in 2004), continued growth is projected for North America, Australia and, stimulated by lower domestic prices, the EU.

Trade patterns in the coming 10 years largely influenced by on-going policies Relatively low levels of protection together with surging consumption in Africa and the Near East might sustain a further rise of imports to those regions. This is also likely to be case in Central America and the Caribbean, following the opening of markets under the recent DR-CAFTA regional agreement. In Asia, Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines are projected to remain key net rice buyers over the period. However, imports to Africa which have been a major engine for trade growth in the past two decades, might increase at a much slower pace, since several countries, in particular Nigeria, have engaged in programmes to sustain production and have raised tariffs. In the OECD area, the recent reform of the rice regime and the Everything but Arms (EBA) initiative are expected to give rise to an expansion of rice net imports by the EU. Similarly these should also rise in the Republic of Korea, which recently agreed to widen its minimum import access quota. With per capita consumption slowly declining and continued yield growth, Brazilian rice imports should stabilize at levels below one million tonnes per year.

China to maintain its self-sufficiency policy for rice China is projected to turn into a small net importer, after having acted mostly as a net supplier of rice to international markets. With higher domestic prices, this shift mainly reflects expectations of higher imports and reduced exports of lower quality rice. While the projections suggest production levels well above the low 112 million tonne out-turn in 2003, China’s consumption is expected to follow a modest growth path, remaining


47

1. CEREALS

however slightly below production levels. Rice stocks, which supplied more than 63 million tonnes of rice between 1999 and 2004, are expected to stop falling by 2005 and to slowly rebound thereafter, although never returning to the high levels of the 1990s.

Thailand and India to be the world’s largest rice exporters Thailand is anticipated to remain the leading rice exporter in 2014, drawing on substantial productivity gains over the period. Strong institutional support to the sector should enable India to consolidate itself as the second largest net rice exporter. Shipments from Pakistan are also expected to increase, boosted by rising demand in the Near East and the EU. By contrast, land constraints and limited scope for large productivity gains may restrain Vietnam’s ability to raise exports beyond current levels. Despite its proximity to expanding markets in Africa and the Near East, Egypt might have to cut exports, as a growing share of production will be needed to meet domestic consumption. Shipments from the United States are projected to increase somewhat, while sales from Argentina and Uruguay may surge. This, however, would require the two countries to make inroads in markets outside of Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 1.9).

Figure 1.9. Among others, the Philippines, Nigeria, Thailand and Pakistan to increase rice trade Rice major importers

Rice major exporters Thailand USA

Vietnam Pakistan

Indonesia Philippines

India Uruguay

mt 30

mt 12

25

10

20

8

15

6

10

4

5

2

0 1996

2000

2005


2010

2014

0 1996

2000

Nigeria South Africa

2005

EU25 Japan

2010

2014


In the late 1990s and early 2000s, global rice stocks were heavily depleted, as several countries either faced severe production setbacks or engaged in policies to reduce the financial burden associated with large stock holding. The downward stock adjustment appears to be ending in 2005, and is expected to be followed by a moderate rebuilding in the next ten years. As a result, rice inventories might reach 84 million tonnes in 2014, well below the levels witnessed in the late 1990s.

Contrary to other grains, world rice prices expected to increase in real terms Starting from relatively low levels in 2004, world rice prices are projected to increase by 26% reaching some USD 322/t in 2014 for the Thai 100% B. As a result, and in contrast to prices for wheat and coarse grains, international rice prices could increase even in real terms, which would mean a change in the negative trend prevailing over the past 30 years.

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Key issues and uncertainties Uncertainty on the projected market developments arise from a broad set of issues. Some of them are of a more general nature and directly related to the principal baseline assumptions: agricultural policies are unlikely to remain constant over the outlook period, and macroeconomic settings and weather conditions will change. Important implications can be expected from technical progress (yields, production costs) to develop faster or slower than assumed here. In particular, the spread and effects of modern breeding techniques, notably the use of genetically modified (GM) seeds, are difficult to assess, and much will depend on the acceptance of the new strains by farmers and consumers alike. This issue is certainly of interest to the markets of maize and rice, but could become more relevant in other markets as well. Higher yields and/or lower production costs would likely result in larger supplies, putting pressure on market prices. Beyond these, there are other factors that need to be kept in mind when thinking about cereal market developments over the next decade. The most important ones are likely to include the self-sufficiency policy in China, developments in infrastructure, availability of production inputs and legal frameworks for grain producers in the countries of the former Soviet Union, most notably Russia and Ukraine, developments in markets for renewable energies, and the multilateral policy framework.

Cereal markets and policies in China and India are key factors in the Outlook In the past, China has maintained a policy to keep self-sufficiency rates for cereals at high levels and hence to limit imports and the dependency from international supplies. The outlook projections assume a substantial opening of the Chinese market for wheat and coarse grains, particularly maize for animal feed, resulting in significant imports in the course of the next years. Given the sheer size, a different policy development could have important implications on both Chinese and international markets. Given the thinness of the world rice market and because they contribute over half of global paddy production, China and India have considerable power to influence, if not disrupt, world rice trade and prices. The two countries have been net rice exporters in the 1990s, but while the projections results suggest that India will remain an important external rice supplier, China turns into a small net rice importer. Since the country has agreed to let in up to 5.3 million tonnes of rice at a preferential 1% tariff, the scope for stronger increases in imports does exist, but would require a radical change from the prevailing government rice policy.

Export supplies from Russia and Ukraine could well be larger than expected Russia and Ukraine, the two largest countries of the former USSR, have been mentioned in passing in the discussion of the market projections. The substantial dependency on weather conditions in these countries has caused huge changes in the net trade positions in the past, and productivity growth remained slow. Both weather dependency and low productivity growth, however, may be altered through increased investments in farm capital, better functioning input markets, and most importantly the development of the legal framework for cereal farmers. From the onset of transition to market economies, the pace of reform has proven too weak a stimulus to increase farm investment and to enhance productivity. Recent signs from the young Ukrainian government point to more emphasis on reform, however, and both countries certainly have the capacity to supply international grain markets with significant quantities of wheat and coarse grains.


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Biofuel production could become a significant source of demand for coarse grains Improving air quality, rising petroleum prices and supporting rural economies are among the main factors contributing to the recent worldwide rise in demand for biofuels, especially fuel ethanol which can be blended with petrol to form a renewable transport fuel. The rising demand for fuel ethanol is expected to accelerate even further over the medium-term as more countries begin to comply with the Kyoto Protocol limits on greenhouse gas emissions; this is already evidenced by new investments to increase production of fuel ethanol across several countries, in the Far East Asia, in Australia and in Europe. With high crude oil prices, relatively low maize prices and strong government support, the US production of grain-based ethanol could continue on an even steeper upward trend than currently projected; developments in other countries could accelerate as well. Prospects for more rapid expansion particularly in maize use for ethanol production raise questions about their possible impacts on world trade and subsequently on international prices. Finally, the uncertainties with respect to the global policy settings need to be mentioned here. As noted, the projections discussed here are based on the assumption of unchanged policies with the exception of already announced reforms, such as the EU reform of the CAP. Persisting high levels of support in a number of large producing and consuming areas, the forthcoming revision in US farm policies and the ongoing negotiations for a new agreement in the context of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), however, could argue for alternative policy settings that would result in market projections that could be quite different from those presented in this Outlook Report.

50



Chapter 2

Oilseeds and Oilseed Products


51

2. OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS

World market trends and prospects1 Key market drivers The world oilseed and oilseed meal markets begin the projection period from an unsettled state: poor growing conditions in key regions having caused a run-up in prices in the 2003 crop year, the combination of increased area induced by these high prices and yield recovery caused a leap in 2004 production. Market prices have dropped from their recent peaks to accommodate the increased availability, leading to higher consumption and a sharp rise in stocks. Vegetable oil markets offered less drama. Apart from a sustained rise at the start of the present decade, the prices have been less volatile, likely owing to the greater diversity of demand and supply, which depends on many sources of which oil from multiple oilseeds and also palm oil are included in the outlook. The projection period assumptions of average weather, unchanging policy and a macroeconomic setting that is both strong and stable all point to a rather unexciting evolution in commodity markets. Oilseeds, oilseed meal and vegetable oil markets are no exceptions. As such, market developments over the projection period are driven by increasing productivity, changes in area planted to oilseeds and, at a much reduced pace, rising demand as incomes and populations grow in most countries. On balance, these factors lead to the expectation that nominal prices of oilseeds, oilseed meals and vegetable oils will rise from their low levels of 2004 over the projection period, but real prices will be flat or falling (Figures 2.1 and 2.2). The story of these markets revolves around long-standing questions: the potential for further expansion in South America, on the one hand, and the rising demand in China and other developing countries on the other. There are other interesting questions, such as the potential for new suppliers, of oilseeds or vegetable oils, or the cross effects from other commodity markets. OECD sellers and buyers continue to be critical to the markets over-all, accounting for large shares of global supply and demand, but they also tend to be stable, rather than a source of uncertainty.

Main market developments Rising nominal oilseed prices due to growing demand Oilseed production growth is expected to sputter somewhat at the start of the outlook period, owing to the large decrease in oilseed prices, but then to resume its upward path. The projections show oilseed production rising by about a fifth relative to the 2004 level, or two-fifths as compared to the 1999-2003 average. As stocks accumulated during the 2004 production spike – stocks amounting to about 12% of consumption at end 2004 – and are partially released over the years, availabilities of oilseeds are growing by over a quarter to meet increasing demand. And demand does indeed rise not only as a reflection of strong growth in oilseeds crush, but also as oilseed uses as food and feed show some growth over the period.

52


2.

OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS

Figure 2.1. Rising nominal world prices for oilseeds and oilseed products USD/tonne 400

USD/tonne 300

350 300

USD/tonne 700

Vegetable oilc

b

250

Oilseedsa

250

Oilseed meal

600

200

500

150

400

200 150 100 1984

1994

2004

2014

100 1984

1994

2004

2014

300 1984

1994

2004

2014

a) Weighted average oilseed import price, Europe. b) Weighted average oilseed meal import price, Europe. c) Weighted average export price of oilseed oils and palm oil, Europe. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


Figure 2.2. Flat real world prices for oilseed and oilseed products USD/tonne 400

USD/tonne 400

350

300

250

250

200

200

150

150 1994

2004

900

350

Oilseedsa

300

100 1984

USD/tonne 1 000

2014

100 1984

800 b

Oilseed meal

Vegetable oilc

700 600 500 400

1994

2004

2014

300 1984

1994

2004

2014

a) Weighted average oilseed import price, Europe, deflated by USA GDP deflator 2002 = 1. b) Weighted average oilseed meal import price, Europe, deflated by USA GDP deflator 2002 = 1. c) Weighted average export price of oilseed oils and palm oil, deflated by USA GDP deflator 2002 = 1. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


Crushing demand for oilseeds depends on oilseed meal and vegetable oil markets. Rising income and population lead to higher world demand for livestock products which, in turn, raises feed demand. Thus, oilseed meal demand is anticipated to continue to rise in the projection period. By 2014, oilseed meal consumption is expected to be over a quarter higher than in 2004 and more than two-fifths above the 1999-2003 average. The same factors that stimulate oilseed meal demand also lead to an even stronger increase in global demand for vegetable oils, propelling consumption higher by about 30% relative to 2004, 50% as compared to 1999-2003, even as nominal prices rise steadily. Nevertheless, growth rates of consumption of these meals and oils are expected to fall short of their historical rates.

Latin America remains the main source of larger oilseed supplies The OECD region accounts for a significant but decreasing share of world oilseed production. Much of the global increase in production in 2004 takes place here, as growing conditions that depressed production in 2003 mostly improve and, moreover, extra area OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

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has been allocated to oilseeds. Canada, the EU, Turkey and the US all see production rise substantially in 2004; depending on the country, output rises by 15% to more than 25%, whereas only Australia and Mexico post production decreases of any magnitude. From this base, the expectations for further expansion of production over the outlook period are limited mostly to yield improvements in these countries, since relative returns generally discourage increases in oilseed area which consequently exhibits no trend for growth in any of these regions. Limited as it must therefore be to a rather stable area, OECD oilseed production grows by only 7% by 2014 as compared to 2004, although this amounts to a more substantial increase relative to the 1999-2003 average. The engine of growth in world oilseed production has been South America and, given the assumptions of the baseline projections, there is little reason to expect this engine to shut down. True, the baseline projections foresee limits to total land in agriculture in Argentina, but a gradual shift from pasture area into crops is anticipated to continue, with much of this land being planted to oilseeds. Thus, the area expansion continues, if at a more moderate pace, and this combines with higher yields to generate 3-4% more production per year. Brazil posts a similar rate of increase, but could do significantly better in view of the large reservoir of underutilised land: the baseline assumes a slower pace of oilseed area expansion in response to recent low prices – at least as compared to the strong growth rate of the 1990s and, in particular, the booming increases at the start of the present decade. Elsewhere in Latin American, Paraguay also plays a part, posting strong gains in oilseed production. And outside that region, the same applies to India, where incentives to grow oilseeds have been very limited in recent years, with producer prices basically stagnating even in nominal terms. A reversal of this trend is expected in the coming years and production is anticipated to expand markedly as a result. However, this expectation is accompanied by a considerable degree of uncertainty as the country’s commodity specific production support policies, as well as import measures, tend to change over time, strongly affecting the relative economics of crop production and thus the allocation of resources across different crops. Demand for oilseeds is almost entirely either for the domestic crushing industry or for exports. Exports from Canada and the US are expected to expand over the period. Strong export growth also continues in Argentina and Brazil, and by 2014 these countries are expected to export at least half again as much as in 2004 and well over double the average amount of the 1999-2003 period. This reflects developments in the domestic crush industries in these countries, which, though growing, lag the increase in production. Other, smaller oilseed exporters of note include Paraguay, which follows the trend of neighbouring Brazil and Argentina, and Australia, the shipments of which are projected to stabilize at levels well below the 1999-2003 period of booming shipments.

Developments in China are critical for the outlook for global oilseed markets Importers in the OECD region are likely to continue trading at similar levels as observed in the recent past. Unsurprisingly, the European Union, Japan, Korea, Mexico and Turkey are anticipated to continue importing oilseeds to meet the needs of their domestic crush industries. Of these importers, only Japan imports less at the end of the baseline period than before, owing to limited demand for domestic crushing, to supply food or feed industries in light of decreasing population and diminishing output of many livestock products. Turkey, conversely, is likely to show a strong increase in imports over the period as poor productivity of land handicaps production in the race against income-fuelled demand.

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China has developed into the world’s largest importer of oilseeds, accounting for about 30% of global oilseeds trade in the last few years. Therefore, oilseed imports into China are critical to the projections for oilseed markets. As the historical trend of strong growth continues on the basis of the baseline assumptions, the country is expected to reach import levels by 2014 which are between two and three times greater than the 1999-2003 average and nearly double the 2004 amount. Imports grow despite the expectations that the growth in oilseed consumption in China is expected to ease up in coming years, as slightly lower income growth, if not lower income elasticities, and marginally slower population growth than in the past decade take a toll that is not fully offset by falling real prices. On the other hand, such prices and the absence of specific public measures to support production, discourage any expansion in Chinese oilseed plantings, leaving yield growth as the only factor pushing higher domestic production. In this context, the potential for uncertainty concerning oilseed imports should be recognised: domestic demand or supply could easily differ from the projection levels, even given the stable macroeconomic assumptions of the baseline, leading to the possibility of Chinese imports being either higher or lower than projected in this report. Latest indications are that the government is considering to introduce some new crop specific measures to raise producers’ incomes. Such steps could lead to a re-allocation of resources among crops which, in turn, would have implications for the country’s import behaviour and, thus, for the world market for oilseed crops and derived products as a whole. China may be the largest importer of oilseeds during the projection period, but it is not the only source of growth or uncertainty with respect to oilseed buyers. Traditional importers of oilseeds whose import volumes are anticipated to rise further include Mexico, Thailand and other, smaller buyers in South America and Asia.

Oilseed meal markets in the OECD region are large, but the action may be elsewhere Oilseed meal production is a result of oilseed crush and oilseed meal demand is linked to livestock production through feed markets. Given that the greater share of livestock production is in the OECD region, most of the factors impacting on this market are found there, particularly in the European Union and the US which together accounted for almost half of global oilseed meal consumption in 1999-2003. The baseline assumptions, which include a continuation of livestock cycles where appropriate but no further incidences of animal diseases, do not lend themselves to any dramatic perturbations in these developed markets. On average, EU and US oilseed meal consumption continues to grow, although at a slower pace due to the reduced rate of growth in livestock product output. The projections for Australia and Canada can be summarised in much the same way. Mexico is likely to post higher growth in oilseed meal use due to strong growth in livestock output during the baseline period. In Korea, feed demand for oilseed meal rises more slowly and, in Japan, it is sustained briefly by the short-lived surge in pork and poultry production owing to favourable meat-to-feed price ratios before tailing off by the end of the period. Under the baseline assumptions and with projected falling real oilseed meal prices, consumption expands quickly in certain Asian countries, notably India – provided that the anticipated rise in domestic production materializes – and China, based on the assumption of continued strong expansion in the crush of imported seeds. Both countries are also expected to consolidate their position as exporters of oilseed meal, thereby securing for themselves a rising share of the Asian import market. Sustained growth in the livestock sector is expected to continue driving up meal demand also in the Philippines, Malaysia,


55


Pakistan and Thailand as well as in several developing countries in Africa and Latin America. When domestic meal availability is expressed in per caput terms, the average projected consumption levels in developing countries – particularly in least developed countries – remain very low compared to those expected among developed countries. A similar situation also applies to countries in transition. The CIS is anticipated to loose its recently acquired status of net exporter, reverting back to a net import position of oilseed meals towards the end of the projection period. For world oilseed meal, however, the increase in aggregate demand is insufficiently strong to pull up prices given the greater supplies from the slowly rising soyabean production in the US and the expanding oilseed area in Brazil and Argentina. Indeed, the continuation of rising production in South America, in particular, leads to rising quantities of oilseed meal on the market despite falling real prices. However, it needs to be recognised that area and yield expansion on the supply side and income assumptions on the demand side are critical uncertainties in this respect.

Indonesia and Malaysia are key to vegetable oil supplies Whereas oilseed meal is tightly bound to oilseed crush, oilseed oil produced by this process represents less than two-thirds of the vegetable oils represented in this outlook and the underlying model, with palm oil comprising the rest of the aggregate. Even so, the EU and US together account for a significant share of total vegetable oil production – a fifth, but falling. Still, the total production of the OECD region is barely over a quarter of global vegetable oil output and, though expanding by 1-2% per year during the period, is anticipated to comprise a smaller share of world production by 2014. The main reason why leading oilseed producers and crushers are not as critical to vegetable oil supply is, again, the role of palm oil producers – and that means Indonesia and Malaysia. Currently, palm oil produced in these two countries accounts for almost one third of global vegetable oil output. During the last decade, palm oil has become the most widely traded vegetable oil and its dominant position is expected to be consolidated further over the coming years. While today palm oil is the second most consumed oil after soyabean oil, the order could be reversed by the year 2014. However, projections for Malaysia and Indonesia are characterized by a considerable degree of uncertainty. Difficult to predict, longer term economic growth, macroeconomic policies and changes in climatic conditions are going to be key determinants for the future development of area expansion and production in each of the two countries, as well as for their exports. Depending on the underlying assumptions, the competitive position of the two nations can change, with important repercussions on the global market. Furthermore, recent experience has shown that the pattern of global vegetable oil trade, and in particular trade in palm oil, is highly susceptible to changes in the import policies (e.g. tariff rates, import quotas and tariff escalation) of major buyers such as India or China. As to consumption levels, the divergence in average per caput availabilities between the developed countries on one side and developing nations (in particular least developed ones in Africa) as well as transitional economies on the other, remains important during the projection period.

Sustained demand for vegetable oils in OECD countries Vegetable oil trade is widespread and is driven higher during the projections, even at rising nominal prices. In fact, consumption rises in all countries as underlying trends,

56


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typically rising population and good income growth favour oil consumption. Within the OECD region, total vegetable oil use grows at 1.5-2% per year, with Mexico and the US tending to raise that average. Given this pace of growth in consumption, it is not altogether surprising that net imports into the OECD are expected to be a quarter higher in 2014 as compared to the 1999-2003 period. In the case of Mexico, the imports are expected to be half again higher. Consumption in the European Union grows only somewhat slower, but is about half the quick pace of well over 3% per year set in the preceding ten years. This reflects easing demand in the fifteen countries that comprised the European Union prior to the most recent accession and a dramatic slowdown expected in vegetable oil demand growth in the newly acceded countries. The future strength of demand in the European Union is one of the main uncertainties with respect to the EU trade position for vegetable oils in the years to come.

China’s imports of vegetable oils continue to grow China has in recent years been the world’s largest vegetable oil consuming country and is expected to be so through the end of the projection period. Indeed, China’s burgeoning demand for oils has represented a constant pull on vegetable oil markets over the last ten years. This rapid increase has been the result of domestic consumption exploding at 10% growth per year, on average. Even at more modest trends, Chinese oil imports are expected to continue to grow, if in steps rather smaller than leaps or bounds seen recently. But this depends heavily on the assumptions of continuing economic growth, an assumed modest slow-down in trends towards rising demand and a less extreme, but still strong emphasis on the purchase of whole oilseeds for domestic crushing as opposed to importing vegetable oil for direct consumption. Other important changes in vegetable oil trade include rising palm exports from Indonesia and Malaysia and sustained expansion in purchases by traditional buyers in Asia (Iran and Pakistan), as well as Africa (Egypt and West African coastal nations) and Latin America (Mexico, Venezuela, Chile). Purchases in India have increased considerably in recent years, thus strongly raising the country’s dependence on imported vegetable oils. Over the coming years the volume of imports is anticipated to grow only marginally, based on the expectation of a marked acceleration in the growth of domestic oilseed production. However, the current baseline projections imply a slowdown – compared to the last decade – in the annual expansion of total vegetable oil availability, and India’s average per caput consumption level is expected to stay behind that of most other developing countries in Asia.

Key issues and uncertainties Soyabean rust may lower yields and affect the market outlook Some key uncertainties to these projections have been noted in passing above, such as the macroeconomic environment, policies and weather, but there are other factors to keep in mind when considering the evolution of world oilseed, oilseed meal and vegetable oil markets. Soyabean rust is a source of error in these projections, at least for the near term. Current yield prospects in the US have been cast into doubt, and if some part of production of soyabeans in this country is lost, then the reduction in supplies will lead to higher oilseed prices. A crush industry driven to ration soyabean use by higher prices would decrease their through-put of these meal-heavy seeds, so oilseed meal market prices would increase. Such near-term consequences would impact on consumption and have consequences for planting OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

57


decisions as well. In the long-term, if rust prevention procedures are adopted that raise marginal costs for soyabean production in the US, or in other countries, then the consequent increase in marginal production costs will have a negative impact on soyabean area and likely cause a sustained increase in oilseed and oilseed meal prices, yet the effects would probably be small as long as the prevention techniques were not too costly. The resulting higher feed costs would also affect livestock production, in particular that of non-ruminants.

A conclusion to ongoing negotiations in the WTO is not considered Uncertainties relating to policies cannot be ignored. The baseline assumes that present policies extend unchanged throughout the outlook period, without major reforms that are not already announced. Of course, a conclusion to DDA negotiations would likely have an impact, but the projections make no assumptions about that possibility. Given the role of agricultural support in OECD countries, an alternative assumption about domestic policies or international trade agreements could have direct impacts on oilseed producer returns and indirect impacts through other commodity markets. For the EU, Japan and the US, for example, direct payments are assumed to continue and, in the last of these, marketing loan payments effectively provide a floor to producer returns per unit that proves binding in the first several years of the projections. Tariffs and export taxes affect markets for oilseeds, oilseed meal and vegetable oils, as well. Also, although not driving factors at present, the introduction over the last few years of tariff rate quota systems in several countries importing oilseeds, oils and meals has the potential to affect trade in these markets.

Growth in demand for non-food use may impact oilseed markets Furthermore, it appears that in recent years the sector started reacting to somewhat falling global growth rates in the use of oilseed products for food and feed purposes by devoting increased attention to industrial applications, especially of vegetable oils.2 The two subsectors of particular relevance are the oleochemical industry and, more recently, vegetable oil-based biodiesel production. For these branches, the pace and direction of development are very difficult to predict, mainly because of the strong influence of external variables such as international prices for petroleum, environmental policies or technological advances. Several major oilcrop producing countries are exploring possibilities for a partial shift of resources into alternative uses. If such shifts were to occur, which however remains impossible to predict, related changes in prices and repercussions on the overall pattern of oilcrop production, consumption and trade could be significant.

Consumer preferences are changing Another source of uncertainty relates to changing consumer preferences – for individual vegetable oils – based on health considerations. Research efforts on and consumer awareness about nutritional and related health properties of individual oils have increased in recent years. Some governments have modified the relevant legislation on product labelling and others are considering to do so. As a result, the demand for certain oils and products derived from them can undergo significant and sudden changes, thus potentially affecting the global pattern of oilcrop production and trade. As these are newly emerging trends, their possible implications are not reflected in the baseline projections.

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Future government policies with respect to GMOs are not anticipated Finally, the advent and fast spread of genetically modified varieties for certain oilseeds as well as some competing crops has the potential to affect markets significantly. Policy makers and traders in many countries need to address calls for complete GMO and GMO-free product segregation and for clear product certification. Once more countries are going to introduce binding regulations in this regard, a series of economic adjustments (notably concerning production and handling costs and final product prices) is likely to be triggered. Possible changes in relative costs and prices could alter the competitive position of individual crops, thus affecting the world market pattern for oilcrops and derived products. Again, however, future government policies in this area are not anticipated in this analysis and the likely multiple economic repercussions of alternative policy scenarios on commodity markets are only mentioned here as an important factor generating uncertainty in the outlook for oilseed and oilseed product markets.

Notes 1. All dates are on a marketing year basis (as defined in the glossary) unless stated otherwise. A description of the model underlying these projections is available elsewhere, but it is important to note that this discussion focuses on the following aggregates: oilseeds are rapeseed, soyabean and sunflower; oilseed meals are rapeseed meal, soyabean meal and sunflower meal; and vegetable oils are rapeseed oil, soyabean oil, sunflower oil and palm oil. 2. For an analysis of the impacts of biodiesel and ethanol initiatives on world commodity markets on the basis of certain necessary assumptions regarding their implementation, see the Agricultural Outlook, 2002-2007.


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Chapter 3

Sugar


61

3. SUGAR

World market trends and prospects Key market drivers In spite of a continuing surplus in the global sugar market, world prices increased over the course of 2004, with raw sugar prices rising to a 21 month high of nearly USD 9 cents/lb (USD 198.4/t), before stabilising at USD 8 cents/lb (USD 179.3/t). White sugar prices have followed a similar pattern to raw prices. These higher prices reflected expectations of some tightening of the global supply and demand balance for sugar – with anticipated imports by India, the world largest sugar consumer, following two consecutive years of large production shortfalls as well as some switch of sugarcane use to ethanol production in Brazil, the largest sugar exporter, as oil prices increased. Over the longer term, however, the global market is expected to remain well supplied with sugar, with no substantive increase in prices above current levels justified by market fundamentals (Figure 3.1). International sugar markets over coming years will be increasingly shaped by market developments occurring in the developing countries and transition economies which collectively account for over 70% of world sugar production and consumption and the largest share of global raw and white sugar trade. Despite having only a minority, and declining, share of the world sugar market, the advanced economies within the OECD area continue to have a major influence on the global sugar market through their sugar policies. These policies, in some instances, facilitate sugar trade and resource transfers to some of the poorest of the developing countries under preferential access arrangements, whilst at the same time, contributing to distortions in production, trade and world sugar prices. In the context of these overarching structural features, the outlook for the world sugar market reflects the confluence of a number of basic market drivers, such as higher world economic growth, a continuation of current policy settings or announced policy changes, average weather conditions and longer term productivity trends in the main producing and sugar trading countries.

Figure 3.1. World sugar prices to remain under pressure USD/tonne 350

USD/tonne 450 400

300

Raw sugara

250

300

200

250

150

200

100 50 1984

White sugarb

350

150 1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

100 1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

a) Raw sugar world price, New York No. 11, f.o.b., bulk spot price, September/August. b) Refined sugar price, London No. 5, f.o.b. Europe, spot price, September/August. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

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SUGAR

On the production side, Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, has demonstrated rapid production and export growth over the last decade, despite lower world prices. This growth has contributed to a structural surplus of sugar that overhangs the market. The main issues for the sugar outlook would appear to revolve around questions of whether underlying demand for sugar will be sufficient to sustain global consumption growth over the period to 2014 and what the potential is for further production growth in Brazil. Furthermore, will Brazil’s expansion of cane production and processing capacity be sufficient to allow simultaneous growth in sugar production and exports, as well as increased cane use for alcohol production to meet rising demand for ethanol as a transport fuel.

Main market developments The global picture World sugar production is projected to increase in 2005/061 with expected recovery in production in India, Thailand and Cuba and a larger crop in Brazil. Global sugar consumption should also increase in 2005/06, albeit at a slower rate as high oil prices and falling consumer and business confidence impact of economic growth in the near term. By 2014, world sugar production is projected to expand to 178 million tonnes, some 38 million tonnes or 27% above the average for 1999-2003. Most of the growth in sugar production is accounted for by a larger area harvested and higher yields of sugar cane, which continues to be the dominant source of sugar. While world sugar beet yields are expected to increase the area harvested is projected to decline slightly over the period to 2014. For the world sugar economy, the most fundamental economic driver is steady, year-on-year consumption growth. World sugar consumption has averaged over 2% growth per year over the last decade, driven by population increase that explains around 85% of all growth, per capita incomes and changes in dietary preferences. As noted, some slowdown in consumption growth may be expected in the near term with some dampening of global and regional economic growth. However, consumption should resume its historical expansion as economic growth around the world rebounds over the outlook period. Countries outside of the OECD area are expected to account for over 91% of the increase in sugar consumption of around 40.4 million tonnes projected for 2014, when compared with the 1999-2003 average. Developing countries, and particularly those in Asia, currently account for around 65% of global sugar consumption and are expected to continue to be the major source of growth over the outlook period.

Figure 3.2. Real sugar prices continue to decline USD/tonne 400

USD/tonne 550 500

350

450

Raw sugara

300 250

350

200

300 250

150

200

100 50 1984

White sugarb

400

150 1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

100 1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

a) Raw sugar world price, New York No. 11, f.o.b., bulk spot price, September/August. b) Refined sugar price, London No. 5, f.o.b. Europe, spot price, September/August. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



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3. SUGAR

World production is expected to expand faster than global consumption in most years of the outlook, and this mismatch leads to some further accumulation of global sugar stocks. Despite a higher absolute level of stocks, the global stocks-to-use ratio is set to decline from an estimated 45.7% in 2004/05 to 42% in 2014 (Figure 3.3). OECD area stocks also decline slightly over the outlook horizon. The small degree of global market tightening implied by this change in stocks is not expected to have much effect on world prices. In general, the global market will remain well supplied with sugar, with no increase in prices above current levels justified by market fundamentals. As a consequence, world raw sugar prices are expected to stay within a band of USD 7-10 cents/lb (USD 165-195/t).2 And white sugar prices remain within a band USD 9-10.5 cents/lb (USD 198-229/t)3 over the outlook period to 2014.

Figure 3.3. Global sugar stocks-to-use ratio to slowly decline Production

Consumption

Stock to use (right-hand scale) % 55

Million tonnes 180

50

160

45 140 40 120

100

35

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

30

Note: Data are in raw sugar equivalent. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


Production shares to increase for developing countries and particularly for Brazil Sugar production in the developing countries and transition economies that make up the non-OECD area, is projected to expand to 137 million tonnes in 2014, some 39 million tonnes or 40% above the 1999-2003 average. OECD area production, which represents a minority share of global sugar output, is projected to total 40 million tonnes in 2014, which is slightly below the average of the 1999-2003 period (Figure 3.4). This suggests that the OECD area’s market share will continue to shrink over the outlook period. Over time, world production of sugar that is destined for export markets has become concentrated in a smaller number of countries, generally those sugar cane producers with the lowest costs of production. A large share of this additional low cost production is accounted for by Brazil, the world’s leading sugar producer and exporting country. The size of the Brazilian sugarcane crop and, by extension, the change in the global sugar market balance has become a leading indicator of world sugar market prospects. Higher prices, in domestic currency terms, during the projection period should encourage some further expansion in sugar cane areas and along with yield increases through varietal improvement, lead to higher production (Figure 3.5). Sugar output in Brazil is projected to increase at 3% per year, on average, during the outlook period, which is somewhat lower than the rapid rate of

64


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SUGAR

Figure 3.4. Production and consumption to increase more in the non-OECD area Production

Consumption

Millions tonnes 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2014

2004

2004

OECD countries

2014 Non-OECD countries



Figure 3.5. Higher domestic prices in Brazil boost sugar and alcohol production and exports Sugar production

Sugar exports

Sugar production

World sugar price, raw in reals (right-hand scale) Million tonnes 40

Production of alcohol (right-hand scale) BRL/t 800

35

700

30

600

25

500

20

400

15

300

10

Million tonnes 40 35 30

20

25 20 15

15

10

5

200

5

0

100

0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Million litres 25

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

10

Note: Data are in raw sugar equivalent. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


growth over the last decade from 1995 to 2004. If the sugarcane crop continues to be split equally between sugar and alcohol production, the larger cane crop will imply a more than doubling of alcohol output by 2014. Brazil’s sugar situation is further complicated by developments taking place in its huge ethanol sector. As Brazil produces both raw sugar and alcohol from sugarcane, this gives the industry flexibility in responding to the changing profitability of sugar and ethanol production. In 2004/05 slightly less than 50% of the sugarcane crop was used for ethanol production. Two main types of ethanol are produced, hydrous ethanol that is utilised in the pure form as a petrol substitute or anhydrous ethanol that can be blended with petrol as a fuel extender. The development of flex-fuel engines, which can run on either pure hydrous ethanol or a blend of anhydrous ethanol with petrol, has lead to a


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3. SUGAR

strong growth in sales of cars equipped with these engines in Brazil and, in turn, a surge in demand for ethanol. The blending ratio for mixing anhydrous ethanol with petrol is set by government decree. In earlier years the blending ratio was set at between 20-24% depending largely on petrol prices in order to conserve supplies. However, in the last couple of years the ratio has been increased to 25%. The increase in ethanol demand over the outlook period is not expected to substantially affect the growth in sugar production which is projected to reach 39 million tonnes in 2014, nearly 10 million tonnes above the 2004/05 crop. This is equivalent to over 33% of the projected increase in global production by 2014. The apparent abundance of suitable land in Brazil for sugarcane production, additional investment in processing facilities and transport infrastructure as well as the projected continuing depreciation of the Brazilian real over the outlook period can be expected to encourage the production of sugar for export, and maintain the international competitiveness of the Brazilian sugar industry.

But production growth to be slower in Thailand, Cuba and Australia In looking forward at the prospects of the other low cost sugar exporters, sugar production is projected to rise in Thailand in 2005/06, following poor crop conditions of the previous year, but to increase at a slower rate over the projection period in response to the limited increase in world prices. Domestic sales are regulated by a quota system that maintains domestic prices above world levels and so lessen the impact of low world sugar prices Thailand is expected to move towards more product diversification in order to lessen reliance on international sugar markets characterised by low sugar prices. Diversification into ethanol production is already an option that is being seriously pursued. The government hopes to produce 1 billion litres of ethanol by 2010, all of which would be used domestically in fuel blends. Sugar consumption will continue to expand over the projection period at annual rate of less than 2%, in line with population and income growth and the continuation of higher domestic prices. The downsizing of the Cuban sugar industry is expected to come to end once the rationalisation process is completed and inefficient sugar processing factories are taken out of operation. Future growth in production from a lower base will rely mainly on the achievement of efficiency gains and productivity improvements to further lower costs. In like fashion, the key to the future growth of the Australian sugar industry lies in its ability to increase productivity, efficiency and maintain competitiveness in a world market where prices remain relatively low and where there is increasing dominance by Brazil. Like Thailand, Australia is expected to move towards further product diversification in order to exploit available market opportunities in an environment of weak international sugar prices. The projections assume that the Australian industry will be successful in adopting the required changes and to grow slowly over the outlook period. Sugar production from the African, Caribbean and Pacific Island States (ACP countries) that hold quotas under the EU/ACP Sugar Protocol (SP) and Special Preference Sugar (SPS), as well as under the United States import TRQ, is not expected to change significantly during the projections period. Overall growth in sugar output from these countries is projected to be less than 0.5% per year, due to higher costs, rising domestic demand and declining sales to the European Union under the SPS Protocol.

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Oversupply from high cost producers will continue The inducement provided by high sugar support prices is expected to encourage additional production in some high cost, protected markets of OECD countries. For the United States, some increase in sugar production in a context of only low growth in domestic consumption is essentially held in check by the operation of the marketing allotments program that leads to restrictions on processed sugar sales (“blocked stocks”), and adjustments in planted acreage for sugar crops. For the European Union, another highly protected sugar market, the accession of ten new member states in 2004 has lead to increase in production quotas and output of sugar from the enlarged Union. With quotas in place, sugar production under the stimulus of high, but falling real, producer prices is projected to be relatively stable up to 2009. The “Everything But Arms” (EBA) Initiative of the European Union to assist trade of the least developed countries (LDCs) is expected to have an impact on EU sugar production when quotas on these imports are totally suspended from 2009. With no duty or quantity restrictions on trade, sugar imports from the LDCs are expected to increase from mid-2009 to over 2 million tonnes in 2014.4 Under existing market stabilisation arrangements, these additional supplies lead to downward adjustments in quota production within the European Union so that the domestic supply and demand situation remains in balance and there is no accumulation of excessive intervention stocks.

Steady demand growth will only eat up some of the surplus Sugar consumption is the main driver of the world sugar economy. Sugar consumption, however, has displayed different growth patterns in the various regions of the world, with the Asia region showing the fastest growth in recent years. Despite higher growth overall, there remain substantial variations in levels of per capita sugar consumption amongst countries in the Asian region. The largest consuming nation is India which accounts for around 30% of the region’s sugar demand. Indian sugar consumption has been growing rapidly in recent years led by strong economic growth. Sugar consumption growth slowed in 2004 in response to high domestic prices and reduced availability as a result of sharply lower production. While Indian production is expected to take some years to fully recover from consecutive poor seasons at the beginning of the outlook period, consumption of sugar is projected to continue to expand over the coming years to reach around 24.9 million tonnes in 2014. In China, sugar demand is being fuelled by the strong rise in per capita incomes and the limitations imposed by government controls on artificial sweetener use. The major users of sugar in China are the food processing, beverage and pharmaceutical industries where demand has been boosted by rapid economic growth. Direct household use of sugar still accounts for a small proportion of consumption with per capita use less than half the world average and below that of the rest of Asia. Household use of sugar is expected to increase gradually over the projection period as diets continue to adjust. The other major sugar consumer in the region is Indonesia, where consumption is projected to increase by around 2.7% per year to 2014. Brazil is the major sugar consumer in Latin America and is ranked fifth amongst the world’s leading sugar consuming nations. Sugar consumption is projected to grow by 2.5% per year, on average, over the outlook period and to be driven by increasing population and rising incomes, as the economy continues to develop. Sugar consumption is projected to grow less rapidly in Argentina, as some consumption growth is taken by higher use of artificial sweeteners in the domestic beverage industry. In Russia, which accounts for about


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half the consumption of non-EU countries in Europe, direct sugar consumption by households is slowing from already high per capita levels, while that of processed foods is on the increase. This has led to rising demand for sugar by the processing industry. Overall, sugar demand is projected to increase by 2 % per year on average to 2014. Sugar consumption in the ACP countries is expected to grow at about 2% per annum and to be underpinned by demand growth in Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Jamaica and Zimbabwe.

With some exceptions, sugar consumption mostly stable in the OECD area In the OECD area, sugar consumption is stable to slightly declining in many member countries. These markets are mature and mostly saturated, and with per capita consumption high by international standards. Low population growth, increasing health awareness and inroads made by artificial sweeteners are expected to limit any further growth in sugar consumption in many of the advanced economies. Demand in the 10 new member states of the European Union will also be adversely affected by the adoption of higher prices under the EU sugar regime. Industrial use of sugar now accounts for 70-80% of total sugar demand in the European Union and the United States.5 Direct sugar consumption in the United States has faltered in recent years, following a long period of growth averaging 1.5% per year. This slowdown is expected to continue over the outlook period, reducing the growth in total consumption. Sugar consumption in Australia, Canada and Japan is expected to be little changed. Mexican sugar consumption has shown strong growth in recent years, boosted in part by the 20% tax imposed in 2002 on soft drinks that use high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) as a sweetener. This caused soft drink manufacturers to switch from HFCS back to sugar, lifting sugar consumption by an additional 1.6 million tonnes and reversing Mexico’s traditional trade position from an exporter to a small importer of sugar. Under the NAFTA agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, continuing restrictions on sweeteners trade between the first two countries are required to be eliminated by 2008, when the three national markets should operate as a single unified market. Normally this market consolidation might be expected to lead to some cross trade in sugar from Mexico (and maize-based sweeteners from the United States), putting pressure on US domestic production and the loan rate based price support program. However, as the consumption tax applied by Mexico is assumed to remain in place throughout the entire projection period, this effectively eliminates any sugar surplus for export to the United States.

Sugar exports to expand from low cost producers Sugar exports from Brazil exceeded 14 million tonnes representing about 30% of world exports in 2003, having grown from less than 2 million tonnes at the beginning of the decade. Exports are expected to increase over the projection period by a similar amount, underpinned by higher world prices in domestic currency terms (with a further depreciation of the real) and rising demand in the world market, particularly from Russia and a number of developing countries. Sugar exports are expected to continue to favour raw sugar shipments, although white sugar sales will also increase, in part to fill some of the gap in the market left by lower shipments from the European Union. Exports of white sugar by the European Union, the second largest exporter are projected to decline by 43% in 2014, when compared with average exports for 1999-2003. This reflects a combination of a lower export subsidy limit under the URAA provisions with continuing low world prices and lower C sugar production and exports as production quotas are reduced with higher EBA imports after 2009. Thailand, Australia and South Africa are expected to show only moderate increases in exports over the

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outlook period in the context of a weak world price environment. Any substantial increases in exports from this group of countries would have to be prompted by a significant rise in the world sugar price or increased efficiency and cost reductions in sugar production, distribution and sales. For the ACP countries, where the bulk of export sales take place under preferential access arrangements to the European Union and United States, a slower growth in production along with declining stocks and reduced sales to the EU is expected to contribute to a moderate fall in raw sugar exports by 2014.

Figure 3.6. Brazil leads the group of low cost sugar exporters 2004

2014

Million tonnes 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0

Brazil

Australia

Cuba


Thailand

South Africa


Border measures slow sugar imports For a number of developing and transition economies, protection to domestic sugar industries is provided by border measures such as tariffs and tariff rate quotas and regulations. This is the case for India where imports are controlled by relatively high tariffs.6 Through a system of levies and monthly releases, the Government controls the supply on the domestic market. Exports are encouraged through a transport subsidy and by granting larger domestic free market sales quotas to producers who export large quantities. However, domestic prices are usually higher than world prices, implying exports are made at a loss which is then recovered from sugar mills. Following two consecutive years of sharply lower sugar cane crops at the beginning of the outlook period, India switched from being a small, periodic, exporter to becoming a large scale importer of sugar to cover its consumption needs during the period of production disruption. These imports are expected to decline as production recovers gradually to reach around 25 million tonnes in 2014. Sugar stocks in India are also forecast to decline by 2014 to levels below those of the previous decade when excessive stocks were accumulated. With lower stocks, exports are not forecast to expand significantly beyond India’s quota access to the United States and the EU.7 The financial situation of the Russian sugar beet sector has improved in recent years partly due to a high level of border protection. Russia is expected to remain the largest sugar importer, mainly of raw sugar, although some import replacement is expected with further expansion in domestic sugar beet production to 2014. Since 2001, when China joined the WTO and established a tariff rate quota for sugar imports, it has never filled the agreed import quota as most of the increases in consumption were covered by growing domestic production rather than purchases from the world market. However, with continued OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

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rapid economic growth over the outlook period and increasing domestic demand, sugar imports by China are projected to increase five fold by 2014. This would make China a leading global sugar importer, second only to Russia, by the end of the projection period.

Key issues and uncertainties Reform of the EU sugar regime in prospect The sugar projections discussed in this chapter are a conditional scenario based on specific assumptions regarding the macroeconomic environment, a continuation of existing agricultural and trade policies, average weather conditions, longer term productivity trends and the absence of market shocks. Should any of these assumptions change, the resulting set of sugar projections would also be different. As a case in point, the projections for the European Union are based on a continuation of the common market organisation (CMO) for sugar which was introduced in 1968 and whose primary provisions covering production quotas, declassification and carryover mechanisms as well as intervention and minimum sugar beet prices are applicable only up to the 30 June 2006. In response to the mandated review of the CMO for sugar, the European Commission released proposals in September 2003 for discussion by member states of possible arrangements to replace the existing CMO at its expiration. Three options were advanced for discussion ranging from a continuation of the status quo, a price support reduction and possible elimination of production quotas to full market and trade liberalisation. The Commission has followed up these proposals with a communication to the EU Council and European Parliament in July 2004 of its preferred reform option. This involves, inter alia, a reduction in the support price in two steps (by 33% from EUR 631 to EUR 421 per tonne), establishing a new reference price for sugar, partial compensation to producers for the price cut in the form of a direct payment, the simplification of the A and B production quota system into a single but lower total quota (down 2.8 million tonnes, from 17.4 to 14.6 million tonnes), allowing transferability of quotas between member states to facilitate restructuring of the industry, modification of the import regime (introducing a tariff-rate quota on imports from the western Balkans) and an increase in the isoglucose quota over three years. A review of the reform is proposed by the Commission in 2008. These proposals are currently under discussion in the EU Council, with the Commission intent on submitting a concrete proposal for legislation in the summer of 2005. Should the preferred option of the Commission of a domestic price reduction be adopted, it has estimated that sugar production within the Union would decline to around 14 million tonnes, imports would rise to 2.5 million tonnes and subsidised exports would disappear.8 The reform could also have implications for the sustainability of the sugar industry and potentially for exports of some of the ACP sugar producing countries, as discussed below.

Trade reforms to affect developing countries in different ways Small developing countries have been the focus of recent WTO negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda, with market access a high priority. There will be continued focus on reform of administration rules of TRQ to reduce transaction costs of market access. While most developing countries would potentially gain access to more markets from trade liberalisation, these gains would be partly offset by quota rent losses from preference erosion (particularly to the EU and United States markets) for ACP members and higher prices faced by some importing countries as export subsidies are eliminated.

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The ACP countries face challenges to their current situation, particularly if the recent WTO panel ruling on complaints lodged by Australia, Brazil and Thailand against export subsidy aspects of the EU sugar regime is upheld following appeal by the European Commission, and from reform of the common market organisation (CMO) for sugar to replace the current regime that runs until 30 June 2006. In addition, some adjustment to the baseline projections for the developing countries within the ACP group could also occur with an expected expansion in sugar shipments from LDC countries under the EBA Initiative, from July 2009, when quotas will be totally suspended. However, for other lower cost LDC countries which are also members of the ACP group, but not currently signatories to the Sugar Protocol (SP) and Special Preference Sugar (SPS) protocol, namely Sudan and several countries in southern Africa, production and exports could rise in response to the improved market access opportunities to the higher priced EU market. For some of these countries, there exists the capacity to increase areas under sugar production. Other countries within the developing world have much to gain from trade liberalisation, with Brazil in particular likely to be a big winner. While some countries will gain from further multilateral trade liberalisation, those counties who currently benefit from the present US TRQ system and the EU sugar regime, may stand to loose.

Increased sugar supply potential of Brazil tied to infrastructure developments The supply response of Brazil is a key determinant of future global sugar market conditions. A recent analysis by FAO examined the reason why Brazil had not expanded exports significantly in the face of previous price increases (previous estimates of supply elasticities have been low, at or about 0.1). A question that arises is why Brazil now has the capacity to expand production and export levels. One reason is that Brazilian infrastructure has developed to a sufficient level. The historical pattern of agricultural expansion in Brazil has been that cattle production is the first to expand into new land as it needs limited infrastructure investment. As infrastructure improves, soyabeans take over the land. At a later stage, sugar production replaces soyabeans as it needs even greater investment in infrastructure. In many parts of Brazil, the level of infrastructural development is now sufficient to allow transition to sugar production. Former sectoral and macroeconomic policies in Brazil also explain the limited past expansion of sugar production. In the mid-1990s, an over-valued exchange rate made the sector uncompetitive. This has been corrected since 1999 and Brazil’s share of the world market has since increased. The emphasis on efficiency gains in all aspects of the sugar value chain, driven, in part, by a trend decline in real prices over the past decade, means that Brazil has the capacity to supply the world market even at prices below USD 6 cents per pound.

Notes 1. All data is for a crop year beginning 1 September and ending 31 August. 2. Raw world sugar indicator price, No. 11 contract New York, f.o.b. stowed Caribbean ports, bulk spot price. 3. Refined world sugar indicator price, London No. 5, f.o.b. Europe, spot market. 4. The European Commission has estimated that between 1 million tonnes and 2.4 million tonnes of additional sugar imports could enter the European Union from LDC countries under the EBA initiative. 5. Jennifer Nyberg “Consumption growth reconsidered. Implications for sugar and other caloric sweeteners”, F.O. Licht World Sugar Conference, September 2003.


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6. An applied tariff of 60% for raw sugar; 150% WTO-bound rate for both raw and refined plus a countervailing duty on imported raw sugar. 7. India’s quota to the United States is 8 450 tonnes of raw sugar, and to the EU its quota is 10 000 tonnes of raw sugar. 8. Commission of the European Communities, Staff Working Paper, Reforming the European Union’s sugar policy, Summary of impact assessment work, SEC (2003), Brussels.

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Chapter 4

Meat


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World market trends and prospects Key market drivers Global meat markets have been characterised since 2001 by the pervasive and disruptive effects of animal health crises, including Foot and Mouth disease, Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) and Avian Influenza (AI). Response by governments and consumers to food safety concerns have pushed up prices of meat from disease-free markets and of alternative protein sources. Trade disruptions resulting from import bans reinforce this market segmentation, resulting in diverging meat prices within and between countries, and among products. The increasing complexity of global markets, the uncertain nature of consumer demand, and the often prolonged and capricious imposition of market access conditions make it difficult to assess how significant and long lasting the impact is of a short term market shock. Meat demand in developing countries continues to be driven by income and population growth, strengthened by demographic trends including urbanisation, changing dietary preferences, and eating habits. A base scenario of continued strong economic growth in developing countries will maintain this steady shift towards higher protein content in national diets, and thus, a higher level of meat consumption. Therefore, driven by this trend in developing countries, the Outlook projects further, but moderating, growth in world meat consumption, production and trade over the period to 2014, resulting in a generally buoyant meat market. The main assumptions conditioning these meat projections include the easing by 2006 of the various Asian trade bans imposed on North American beef, a continuation of the Russian Tariff Rate Quota’s (TRQ’s) for meat until the year 2010, and a continued weak US dollar exchange rate against other major currencies that will keep US meat export prices competitive. Other assumptions supporting the meat outlook are a relatively stable macroeconomic environment, an unchanging policy setting, average weather conditions that result in improved pasture and relatively low feed prices. Finally, higher oil and energy prices have not specifically been taken into account in the projections. Despite many national regulatory reforms initiated in response to recent animal health crises, the baseline projections assume no increase in relative costs of production. Some of these standards include regulations on animal transport, implementation and administration of national traceability and labelling systems, BSE-related technologies introduced to eliminate specified risk materials, and complicated and expensive feed safety regulations. While short-term market disruptions have affected meat prices, the underlying livestock cycles that reflect past investment decisions are assumed to persist (Figure 4.1).

Animal diseases rock global meat markets The pervasive effects of animal diseases are increasingly affecting global meat supplies and prices. Since late 2003, BSE concerns have restricted North American beef exports and outbreaks of AI have blocked trade from the 10 Asian-afflicted countries, as

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Figure 4.1. Cyclical movements in nominal world prices for meat USD/100 kg 350

USD/100 kg 175

NZD/100 kg 500

Beefa

325

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300

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400

150

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Choice steers, USA, dress weight Nebraska. Prices deflated by USA GDP deflator 2002 = 1. Barrows and gilts, No. 1-3 Iowa/South Minnesota, USA dress weight. Prices deflated by USA GDP deflator 2002 = 1. Wholesale weighted average broiler price, ready to cook, 12 cities, USA. Prices deflated by USA GDP deflator 2002 = 1. New Zealand lamb schedule price all grade average, dressed weight. Prices deflated by NZ GDP deflator 2002 = 1.



well as from the United States and Canada. While constrained export supplies in 2004 put upward pressure on meat prices, the long-term ability of some of these countries to access key meat markets remains uncertain. This effect is likely to linger through the initial part of the projection period. Some 18 months after the discovery of one BSE-infected cow in North America, the major high value Asian beef markets remain closed to Canadian and US exports. The resumption of Canadian and US beef exports to these markets hinges on progress being made on a scientific-based system of documentation, to show that exported beef comes from animals less than 21 months of age. The projections assume that North American shipments to Asian markets will resume in 2006. Nevertheless, despite a relatively weak US dollar exchange rate, high domestic US prices and inroads made by competitors, such as Australia, would preclude an immediate recovery in trade and market share. Despite preferences in many Asian markets for grain-fed beef, North American exports are only expected to reach pre-BSE levels by 2008. Canada should regain access to its major beef export market, the United States, in 2005. This is a direct benefit from a new rule allowing Canada to export cattle under thirty months of age to the United States. However, implementation of the rule has been recently delayed by a US federal court ruling. In poultry markets, the endemic nature of AI in Asia will likely preclude a recovery in Asian exports, prompting a composition shift in global trading patterns to more heat-treated product. However, a recovery in poultry consumption in 2005 will stimulate a return to faster growing demand for poultry meat imports. Price competition from poultry will put pressure on the pigmeat sector which benefited over the 2003-05 period from strong export demand and a relatively disease free status. It is clear that animal disease outbreaks, as well as food safety and exchange rate issues will continue to drive trade diversion in global meat industries. It is expected that in this context South American shares of global meat markets will further grow in the short and medium term, supporting the net meat trade position of developing countries (Figure 4.2). Long-term export prospects for individual exporting countries and their


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Figure 4.2. Strong meat exports from South America lift net trade of non-OECD countries Non-OECD

Kt 8 000

South America

Non-OECD less South America

6 000 4 000 2 000 0 -2 000 -4 000 -6 000 -8 000 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008


2010

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corresponding market share, however, will depend on how the persistent market penetration by disease free supplies over the short term translates into long-term trading relationships and changing consumer preferences.

Meat output grows mostly in developing countries As the dietary shifts from grains to meat loose some of their initial momentum in many developing countries and growth in OECD meat consumption slows, growth in global meat production is expected to moderate, from 3.7% to less than 2% per year. In line with historical trends, growth in global meat production and consumption will continue to be driven by rising pigmeat and poultry output in developing countries (Figures 4.3 and 4.4). With non-OECD countries accounting for 77 of global output gains over the projection period, their share of global output is set to expand to 62%, up from 59% in the base period. The corresponding gradual reduction in the OECD share of meat production is in direct contrast to projected growth in Brazil and China, which are expected to account for 10

Figure 4.3. Global meat production gains are driven by non-OECD countries OECD

Non OECD

Million tonnes 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

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1998

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76

2002

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4. MEAT

Figure 4.4. Strong demand for poultry and pig meat Sheepmeat

Pigmeat

Poultry

Beef

Million tonnes 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006


2008

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and 33% of global meat output gains. In the OECD region, North America, which accounts for 15% of global meat production, is expected to contribute nearly 60% of total OECD growth in meat output. The role of least developed countries will continue to be minor in the global meat economy, as they account for only 3% of global meat production and consumption. Ovine meat currently averages 25% of meat production in these countries, but over the projections period, the strongest production gains are expected in the poultry meat sector, contributing 41% to their meat output gains. Meat consumption gains in non-OECD countries are expected to be double those in OECD countries where it is expected to grow only by 1% annually. While per capita meat consumption in non-OECD countries is poised to expand from 24 kg to 27 kg over the projection period, there are big differences between regions and countries. Per capita meat consumption for consumers in the least developed countries will likely increase 1 kg to 10.7 kg by 2014; this is in stark contrast to the expected growth in meat intake of consumers in countries such as Brazil (+10 kg), China (+7 kg), Russia (+10 kg) or South Africa (+9.5 kg) or in the OECD, where it is set to increase by 5 kg over the projection period to 71 kg in 2014.

Main market developments A declining OECD share in global beef production and trade Increasing competition in global markets and the emergence of exporting countries outside the OECD has resulted in a declining (though still significant) OECD share of world bovine meat production. Investment decisions, the traditional cattle cycle and policy developments, particularly in the EU, will limit growth in OECD production of beef and veal to less than 3 % over the projection period. Despite animal disease-related market disruptions which have pushed up Pacific beef prices, US beef supply and prices will likely remain cyclical. Prices have peaked in 2004, but a gradual recovery in US output will trigger a downward trend in Pacific beef prices in the following years. While global beef and veal trade is expected to recover in the context of higher consumption in Japan and Korea, two factors are expected to influence the net export position of the OECD region. First, a growing net import position is likely to develop in the


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EU as structural changes in dairy cattle numbers and policy driven production declines lead to higher beef imports1 and lower exports; and second, the recovery in beef export shares by the United States and Canada are hampered due to BSE-concerns. In the short term, and against a background of high North American beef prices, exports from Australia and New Zealand should benefit from the sluggish recovery in beef exports by the United States and Canada. A short-term slow down in Japanese beef imports could result from any imposition of safeguard measures on beef in Japan, which, if imposed, raise tariffs from 38% to 50%. Support for US exports of high quality beef will originate from Mexico, in the context of a strong economic outlook and a growing population. Developing countries, supported by expected large exports from South America, will retain, and possibly even further increase, their net export position in global markets over the projection period. Favourable beef prices, the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) recognition in January 2005 of Argentina as FMD-free without vaccination, and continued industry investment in Brazil, will maintain the competitive position of South American beef exporters in world markets and lead, over the years to 2014, to considerable competition in global beef markets (Figure 4.5). Meanwhile, strong regional import demand in Asian markets, particularly in Chinese Taipei, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines will also support growth in India’s exports of buffalo meat. Growing demand for Indian product is also expected from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other North African countries.

Figure 4.5. Beef markets: A battle for market share Brazil

Kt 2 000

United States

Australia

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1 000

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0

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2000

2002

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2008

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The pigmeat sector to face strong competition Benefiting from reduced export supplies of beef and poultry early on in the projection period, pork consumption profited from the substitution effect that BSE and AI initially triggered on Asian countries. Pork prices in 2004 were supported by strong demand from the Pacific market. This triggered an increase in pork production in 2005-06, followed by a cyclical decline in pork prices. Strong competition from beef and poultry will likely preclude major consumption and trade gains over the projection period. Trade growth will come from income fuelled-demand from Mexico, and to a lesser extent Asian markets. Despite increased competition in pigmeat markets, this will help to keep the projected Pacific pork prices about USD 20 per 100 kg cwe on average above the 1999-2003 average of USD 122 per 100 kg cwe. Environmental constraints in Japan will prevent a dramatic recovery in the local industry, so imports will continue to play an important role in the domestic market.

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The OECD region will maintain its position as a significant net exporter of pork. Aided by a weak USD dollar throughout the projection period, the United States is expected to increase its net exports of pigmeat by 2014. However, the imposition of anti-dumping duties by the United States on Canadian hogs may influence this outlook. A slowdown in the long term increase in the Canadian hog industry is expected, with the growth of Canadian pork exports set to decrease. This is due to a relative decline in hog slaughter margins in the US when compared to those in Canada, reflecting a relatively stronger increase in wages in the former country. In the EU-25, low costs of production as a result of growing industry concentration and cross-border investment in accession countries will allow the Union to increase its exports and maintain its position as the largest exporting region. This outlook is supported by expected strong pork prices, reduced feed costs as well as the allocation of half (236 kt) of the announced Russian TRQ on pigmeat to the EU. With the exception of Brazil and China, most developing countries are net pigmeat importers. Despite lower tariffs in China resulting from WTO accession and importer concerns about the reliability of animal disease surveillance, the Outlook assumes that China, the producer of 40 % of global pigmeat, will retain a net export position as a result of higher world prices. Brazil’s share of global markets is expected to continue to increase, supported by steady feed prices and an expanding and competitive industry. Improvement in product quality and the signing of bilateral trade agreements2 will support gains made by selected non-traditional developing country exporters, such as Chile and Mexico. Increased investment in the hog industry in Vietnam, strengthened by higher pork prices in the wake of AI, should also underpin growing exports to Asian markets.

Poultry markets to recover from AI-related food safety concerns Supported by moderate feed prices and continued industry integration and concentration global poultry production is set to expand 2.5% annually over the project period. As poultry prices decline relative to other meats, poultry is expected, as depicted in Figure 4.6, to become the most consumed meat in OECD countries, accounting for 37% of all meat consumed by 2014. Similarly, in developing countries, poultry will account for nearly 30% of meat consumption gains.

Figure 4.6. Poultry’s share in total OECD meat consumption is set to increase Beef

Pork

Poultry

Per cent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1984

1989

1994

1999



2004

2009

2014


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Traditional importing countries will continue to expand their regional dominance of poultry trade with the majority of export supplies originating from the United States and Brazil. In addition, despite limited export restitutions and strong competition from Brazil in its major export markets of Russia and the Middle East, the European Union is expected to maintain its shipments. In view of the endemic AI in Asia, the shift in global trading patterns to more cooked and processed poultry product, particularly from Thailand and China, should allow imports of these products to continue to grow over the projection period. Despite concerns about tariff rate quotas and import certification issues, import gains by China, Mexico and Russia (Figure 4.7), will largely contribute to the growth in trade of poultry cuts over the projection period. The imposition by Russia of a TRQ on poultry, set in response to a safeguard investigation that claims injury to domestic production development from imports, is expected to be renegotiated. The Outlook assumes that a two-tier TRQ structure, similar to one for the beef and pork, will be imposed thus ensuring Russian producers some degree of protection against imported poultry products until 2010. Meanwhile, in Mexico, the elimination of TRQs on leg quarters in 2007 is expected to stimulate a stronger import pace. Developing countries will become net poultry importers of growing importance as world prices decline and local industries struggle to compete against low priced imported chicken cuts.

Figure 4.7. Larger poultry meat imports in China, Mexico and Russia China Kt 2 400 2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0

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Despite high prices, the outlook for sheep meat is favourable Similar to the poultry sector, global sheep meat production is expected to grow by 2.1% annually over the project period with nearly all gains housed in developing countries. Structural declines, partly related to recent policy changes, are expected to continue in many OECD countries. This is reflected in a strengthening of the region’s net import position. Oceania production is now picking up following the drought and recent increases in sheep meat prices, despite the gradual fall in projected wool prices as competition from alternative fibres strengthens. However, sheep production in both Australia and New Zealand should grow in the context of steady domestic consumption, growing export demand and an assumed resumption of live sheep trade with Saudi Arabia. Government support for the sector in Uruguay, through enhanced pasture management programmes, is strengthening the outlook for both production and exports.

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Growing ethnic diversity in developed countries, and increased appreciation for de-boned products should strengthen trade over the projection period. Higher import demand in North America, Europe and the Middle East are expected to strengthen exports from Oceania. Meanwhile, the resumption in the live sheep trade with Saudi Arabia is likely to help maintain Australian prices above the 1999-2003 average for most of the projection period.

Key issues and uncertainties Animal disease outbreaks pervasive The pervasiveness and magnitude of animal disease outbreaks has shaped the long-term outlook for global meat markets, and will likely continue to do so over the medium term. The market impacts of disease outbreaks depend in particular on the ability of disease-affected exporting countries to apply risk-based regulatory measures which effectively address the meat safety concerns of importing countries. The harmonisation of Japanese-US testing requirements for cattle remains an outstanding issue, as is the ability of developing countries, such as Thailand, to address the endemic nature of AI through regulatory measures. The increased imposition of anti-dumping measures in OECD countries, in the NAFTA region in particular, combined with trade sanctions on live animal movements (particularly in North America) have long-term implications for investments in the livestock sector.

Changing competitiveness to play a role Issues of competitiveness, partly due to exchange rate movements, industry integration and innovation and policy developments, will also shape agricultural investment decisions; and their impacts may vary across different agricultural industries over the long term. In Europe, the implementation of the CAP in accession countries may influence production decisions and affect both intra-EU trade and meat trade with third countries. In South America, increased investment in livestock production and processing, combined with growth in domestic demand, will support long-term production prospects, product diversification, and export growth.

International agreements can influence outcomes Increased imports from Latin America, especially of beef and poultry meat, are posing a challenge to EU meat producers. The negotiations for the creation of the largest free trade area in the world between the EU and the MERCOSUR began in 1999, and if they are successfully concluded, it should boost EU farm trade with the MERCOSUR region, especially Brazil. However, the attribution of greater quotas, particularly for meats, should also make it easier for Latin American products to access the EU market. No agreement has yet been signed, but the negotiations are expected to resume in 2005. The timing and outcome of the ongoing WTO multilateral agricultural trade negotiations remain uncertain. While no assumptions have been made in this respect, agricultural policy reforms arising from these negotiations could have important implications for the outlook for meat trade and prices over the projection period.


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Notes 1. Most of these imports are expected to originate from South America which have been able, as a result of exchange rate differentials, to enter at full duties (see Analysis of Beef Imports by the European Union, OECD Agricultural Outlook 2004-2013). 2. The Japan-Mexico trade agreement, which went into effect January 2005, allows Mexico to export 80 000 tonnes of pork to Japan per year. In anticipation of an agreement with Japan, supported by recent plant approvals, Chilean pigmeat exporters have increased their shipments to this market as well.

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Chapter 5

Dairy


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5. DAIRY

World market trends and prospects Key market drivers World dairy prices approached or reached record high levels in 2004. These high levels come only two years after a dramatic collapse of prices to the rock bottom lows of the previous decade. Such a price rollercoaster is common as the cyclical pattern of international dairy prices (Figure 5.1). International dairy markets are thin and only about 7% of global milk production is traded. This is partly a natural phenomenon as bulkiness and perishability of milk suggest that the majority of milk consumed in fluid form is produced and processed near the point of consumption. In addition, limited market access substantially constrains trade and the use of export support measures aggravates the volatility of international dairy markets. It follows that a relatively small change in the supply-demand balance of milk has a substantial impact on traded dairy product markets with corresponding consequences for world dairy prices. Moreover, the presence of only few global exporters increases the sensitivity to market perturbations.

Figure 5.1. After an initial fall, world dairy prices show a moderate increase USD/100 kg 300 250

USD/100 kg 300 250

Cheesea

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Skim Milk Powderd

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F.o.b. export price, cheddar cheese, 40 lb blocks, Northern Europe. F.o.b. export price, butter 82% butterfat, Northern Europe. F.o.b. export price, WMP 26%, Northern Europe. F.o.b. export price, not fat dry milk, extra grade, Northern Europe.



In this market context, weather and economic conditions in the few main dairy exporting regions together with the strength of world aggregate demand continue to be the key influences on world dairy prices. The recent price rise can be partly attributed to adverse weather conditions which negatively affected milk production in Oceania, the world’s main dairy product exporting region. Exports from the European Union were also down as EU milk production slipped slightly and domestic use remained strong. On the demand side, good economic performance in Eastern Asia has fuelled strong demand from that region, while higher oil prices have boosted income and, hence, demand in the Middle

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East, North Africa and other oil producing areas. The increase in US dollar denominated world dairy prices was also stimulated by the rapidly devaluing US currency as in several key dairy exporting countries, the strong appreciation against the US dollar has significantly tempered domestic price increases thus limiting their supply response.

Main market developments After falling from record high levels, world dairy prices to slowly increase in nominal terms Although world dairy prices are expected to remain firm in 2005, the resulting supply response will eventually cause these world prices to weaken. This process may start in the second half of 2005, and as the growth of world export supplies is projected to slightly outpace that in import demand over the medium term, prices are anticipated to fall further. While from 2008, nominal prices should resume a modest upward trend again, they are not anticipated to reach the heights of 2004 by the end of the outlook period (Figure 5.1). By 2014, cheese prices are projected to be about 16% below current levels, while butter prices should be only marginally short of the level of 2004. Milk powder prices would see a small reduction with whole milk powder (WMP) falling by 3% and skim milk powder (SMP) by 1% compared to the 2004 levels. Nevertheless, world prices are expected to remain at higher levels over the entire projection period as compared to levels seen in the last decade. The relative strength in international prices is expected to prevail partly as a result of anticipated reductions of SMP and butter exports from the European Union, lower SMP exports from the United States, and sustained demand for dairy products resulting from population growth, changes towards more protein based diets and rising consumer incomes in major importing developing countries. Such price projections reflect the usual assumptions of stability in weather as well as in economic and policy conditions. History shows, however, that actual price outcomes can exhibit significant annual variations about their average trend in any one year. Furthermore, in real terms, world prices are expected to decline, generally following the long time trend (Figure 5.2).

Figure 5.2. Dairy product prices are expected to fall in real terms USD/100 kg 300 250

USD/100 kg 300 Cheesea

250

USD/100 kg 300 Butterb

250

200

200

200

150

150

150

100

100

100

50 1984 a) b) c) d)

1994

2004

2014

50 1984

1994

2004

2014

50 1984

Whole Milk Powderc

Skim Milk Powderd

1994

2004

2014

F.o.b. export price, cheddar cheese, 40 lb blocks, Northern Europe, deflated by US GDP 2002 = 1. F.o.b. export price, butter 82% butterfat, Northern Europe, deflated by US GDP 2002 = 1. F.o.b. export price, WMP 26%, Northern Europe, deflated by US GDP 2002 = 1. F.o.b. export price, not fat dry milk, extra grade, Northern Europe, deflated by US GDP 2002 = 1.

Source: OECD Secretariat and FAO Secretariats.



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Milk output to grow mainly in developing countries, Oceania and the United States World milk production is projected to increase by 1.9% over the course of the next decade reaching 747 million tonnes in 2014. Global milk cow and buffalo inventories are expected to grow modestly, but higher average yields will contribute most to increases in output. The EU, India, the United States, Russia, Pakistan, Brazil, and China account for over two thirds of total output. The biggest producer is the EU, while India is the world’s largest single milk producing country. Producers in developing countries are expected to increase their world milk production shares, as a group, from 53% to 58%. The growth is expected to be strong, especially in India and China. Milk production in the OECD area, on the other hand, would remain relatively stable given that the majority of production is guarded by production control schemes, although milk production in Oceania and US, where such controls do not apply, is expected to trend higher (Figure 5.3).

Figure 5.3. Outlook for milk production in major producing countries 2004

2014

European Union India United States Russia Pakistan Brazil China New Zealand Central America Australia Argentina 0

20


40

60

80

100

120

140 160 Million tonnes


World production to increase mainly for cheese, WMP and butter World production of WMP, cheese and butter is expected to grow by about 20%, while world SMP production is projected to fall by 4% (Figure 5.4) over the outlook period. Production is expected to increase for all dairy products outside the OECD area, reflecting investment into processing capacities which will enable transformation of the large milk production gains. In the OECD area, only cheese and WMP production is anticipated to increase while that for butter and particularly SMP is expected to fall throughout the outlook period. The main driving force for whole milk powder production is its use for reconstitution in milk production deficit areas and in low-production seasons. About half of all WMP production is traded and WMP is expected to remain the most important dairy product in the international trade. New Zealand and the EU are expected to dominate export markets, although Australia and, in particular, Argentina could play a role of growing importance. Imports of dairy products are highly dispersed among countries. Imports by countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and North Africa are projected to increase substantially over the outlook period, while import growth elsewhere, e.g. in China and Brazil, would be offset in part by increased domestic supply.

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5. DAIRY

Figure 5.4. World production trends for dairy products Butter

Cheese

SMP

WMP

Millions tonnes 25

20

15

10

5

0

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994


1998

2002

2006

2010

2014


Cheese is expected to remain the most important dairy commodity overall, accounting for about 40% of milk processed worldwide. By 2014, more than 40% of world cheese production would take place in the European Union, while a quarter would be produced in North America. Although a relatively small supplier of cheese from a global perspective, non-OECD countries are expected to register a 29% growth over the outlook period. Oceania and the EU are projected to remain the dominant players on the export markets, capturing a combined export share of 80%. Japan, the United States, Saudi Arabia and especially Russia are expected to be among the most significant cheese importing countries. The additional world butter production over the outlook period is expected to come entirely from the non-OECD area, where it is projected to grow by 35% (3% p.a.). In India, the world’s largest producer (butter and ghee), production is projected to grow by 3.6% annually. In the OECD countries, with an increase in the use of milk for fresh dairy products, cheese and whole milk powder, butter production is expected to decline by 3% over the outlook period. Russia is to remain one the most important butter importer, together with countries in the Middle East and North Africa. EU butter imports, which largely reflect New Zealand access under the existing quota, should also remain important, although flat over the years to 2014. The fall in world production of SMP over the medium term is primarily due to significantly lower SMP production in the EU and the USA, down by 25% and 33%, respectively. In the non-OECD area, a significant portion of skimmed milk is consumed in its liquid form, and SMP is relatively less important in dairy processing. Correspondingly, trade in SMP is projected to remain relatively weak and to decline over the next ten years. The rapidly declining SMP export shares of the EU and the US are expected to be partly taken up by Oceania, Argentina and eastern European countries. Leche Industializada (LICONSA), the Mexican parastatal company distributing milk to the poor, is expected to increase its usage of domestically produced milk, thus dampening that country’s additional imports of SMP.


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Global demand for dairy products is pulled by the non-OECD area The main driver for milk and dairy product consumption remains population and income growth. Demand is also to be stimulated by a range of new products, expansion of cold storage facilities, improved shelf life and product marketing and packaging. Nevertheless, per capita consumption growth is expected to remain limited and confined to certain products and regions. In the OECD area, consumption is anticipated to decline for all dairy products, with the exception of cheese where it is projected to grow by 17% to 2014. But consumption in the non-OECD area is expected to increase for all dairy products (Figure 5.5). Strong growth, about 3% annually, is expected for butter, cheese and WMP while SMP would see consumption growth of more than 1% per annum. The fastest growth is expected in China, where milk and dairy product consumption is projected to increase by 50-70% to the end of the forecast period.

Figure 5.5. Outlook for dairy product consumption OECD

Non-OECD

Million tonnes 25

20

15

10

5

0

2014

2004 Butter


2004

2014 Cheese

2004

2014 SMP

2004

2014 WMP


Key demand drivers in the non-OECD and OECD regions are expected to converge somewhat. Consumers’ concerns, which are currently prevalent in the more affluent markets, are expected to become gradually more important determinants for demand in non-OECD countries also. That is, over the projection period, consumers in the latter group of countries, too, would demand safer, more functional and convenient food. These trends are stimulated by income growth, ageing populations, changes in lifestyles and a growing food service sector.

Recovery in Oceania’s milk production from current tight supplies Floods and an unusually cold spring have negatively influenced milk production in New Zealand. Milk output in the current marketing year is expected to reach noticeably lower levels compared to the previous year, which contributes to the generally tight international supply situation. Assuming weather conditions return to normal, milk production is expected to increase by 34% (2.9% p.a.) over the outlook period as a result of growing cow inventories and gains in productivity. Nevertheless, the pace of expansion in milk production is expected to slow down when compared to previous years. A strongly

88


5. DAIRY

appreciating New Zealand currency limits export revenues, although the Fonterra exchange rate hedging policy is expected to delay the negative impact of exchange rate appreciation on New Zealand producer prices. New Zealand is anticipated to place a greater emphasis on production of milk powders to satisfy growing demand for this product in emerging markets. Milk production in Australia is still struggling to recover fully from the drought of two years ago. Nevertheless, production has stabilised, despite the fact that feed grain supplies and irrigation water reserves have not yet reached pre-drought levels. Assuming normal weather conditions, it is expected that milk output will gradually increase as a result of improved yields and larger cow inventories. The growth rate of Australia’s milk output, however, is not expected to reach the levels seen in the 1990s. By 2014, milk production is expected to increase by 18% with an annual average growth of about 1.7%.

US output picking up after recent stagnation In the United States, milk production growth has stagnated during the last two years. Poor forage quality and reduced availability of Bovine Somatotropin (BST) held milk production in 2004 to levels barely exceeding that of the previous year. US milk production is expected to pick up in 2005 due to improved returns coming from strong product prices, low feed costs and supplies of BST returning to normal. From the 2004 base year, milk production is projected to grow annually by 1.4%, reaching 89 mt in 2014. This long term growth is achieved through increased productivity, as reduced cow numbers are more than offset by higher yields. A gradual reduction of SMP stocks and exports is anticipated over the outlook period, with domestic product prices relatively firm and above their respective support prices.

EU milk production to follow quota reference quantities In the European Union, the largest milk producing region in the world, supplying a quarter of global milk output, production is expected to broadly follow the evolution in milk quotas. These reference quantities will be increased by 1.5% from 2006 to 2008, as agreed under the CAP 2003 reform. In the EU-15, quota increases are expected to moderate somewhat the long-term decline of the dairy herds. In the EU-10, market availabilities of milk are expected to grow due to quota increases and gradually falling on farm use of milk, which currently accounts for more than 20% of total production. This decline in subsistence production reflects growth in the availability of viable economic alternatives for subsistence farmers due to rural development following entry into the EU. Production and exports of SMP and butter are expected to decline rapidly as more and more milk is anticipated to be used to satisfy fresh dairy product demand and strongly growing cheese production. EU production and exports of WMP are projected to decline moderately over the projection period.

Strong milk production growth in much of Latin America In South America, where ample low cost pasture production systems exist, and under the assumption of more stable economic growth and re-valued currencies, an improved competitive position should support growth in milk output and trade. Production has been shown to be competitive when compared to other low cost suppliers. High international prices and very good milk returns in Argentina halted the steep decline in domestic milk production of the last several years. Milk production in 2004 has rapidly increased and is expected by 2006 to surpass the record high levels of the OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005-2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005

89

5. DAIRY

late 1990s. The recovery is anticipated to continue, with milk production increasing to 2014 by 50% (4% p.a.), a growth rate seen in Argentina prior to its recent economic turmoil. This rapid expansion is primarily due to increased profitability of milk production and the fact that the best cow herds and the most efficient milk producers remained in business after the “dairy crisis” of 2000-02. Brazil has for several years been one of the larger importers of dairy products, particularly whole milk powder. However, in the context of the recent broad based growth in agriculture in the country, milk and dairy product production has also grown significantly and imports have been reduced accordingly. Milk production should grow by over 2% per year, and this may well offset increases in consumption, which has grown considerably as a result of government sponsored school feeding programmes. Consequently, Brazil has the potential to export into international markets in the next ten years. Similarly in smaller countries, such as Uruguay and Paraguay, which have significant available pasture land, the potential for production growth is large, and with small populations, these countries can be expected to increase their role in international markets. However, growth in the dairy sectors of these countries has been relatively slow in recent years, and this trend is assumed to continue.

In Asia, strong demand growth is encouraging dairy sector development Milk production in China continues its spectacular growth. Milk and milk products are largely considered new products, with both production and consumption growing from a small per capita base. Production growth will result mainly from dairy herd expansion. The recent trend is expected to continue over the outlook period, with Chinese milk production growing by 6.5% annually. Yields per cow have not improved much over the last decade and China continues to face constraints related to deterioration of natural grassland, limited water resources, lack of feed and few high quality cows. Production in China will also remain regionally unbalanced with most of the milk produced in the western surplus areas, whereas the eastern, most populated part, would remain a milk shortage area. The growing demand for dairy products in China is expected to be satisfied largely by domestic milk production. However, the milk production constraints mentioned above might push China to import in order to meet consumption needs, further strengthening international dairy prices over the medium term. In India, milk production is projected to grow 3.8% annually over the next decade, after growing at over 4% in the previous one. As the largest producing country, it will also contribute most to increasing global supplies of milk in the coming ten years. About 57% of milk is supplied by the buffalo herd, and the remainder by milk cows. Milk yields are very low in India, but milk cow productivity growth is expected to be very high with yields growing at about 3% per year in the coming decade. Such growth has been the result of concerted policy action, starting with successive programs called “Operation Flood” from 1970 to 1996 which were designed to modernize India’s dairy sector, and in particular to increase the benefits of improved marketing and distribution of milk products to the Indian population. However, despite being the largest milk producing nation, over 70% of milk production is still derived from farms with 2 cows or buffaloes. Despite growth in production, India is not assumed to enter significantly into world dairy markets, as this growth will be absorbed by increased consumption of milk and of milk products as a result of both higher incomes and population growth.

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5. DAIRY

Key issues and uncertainties As with other agricultural products, there are many uncertainties surrounding this medium term market assessment for milk and dairy markets. Weather, economic conditions and the evolution in policies have been and remain among the key factors influencing dairy markets. In addition, exchange rate developments could have an important influence on markets also, as world dairy trade is typically denominated in US dollars, whereas the supplies of world exports depend mostly on the currencies of Oceania, Europe and South America.

Dairy policies play a key role Developments in domestic dairy policies are expected to have an important bearing on the market, as milk production is heavily supported in almost every OECD country and in many other countries as well. Dairy trade is currently characterised by average bound tariffs that are among the highest of all agricultural commodities, by a large number of tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), low minimum access requirements and the use of export subsidies and other trade support measures. Hence, the final outcome of ongoing trade negotiations in the WTO is likely to influence the future of dairy markets. Moreover, the dairy industry could also face gradually more environmental and animal welfare constraints. Deterioration of natural grasslands, limited water resources, water pollution and methane-gas emissions are among the important issues for the future.

Globalisation also characterises the dairy sector Globalisation of the dairy industry, an on-going development, represents another force likely to influence dairy markets over the outlook period. The dairy processing sector is undergoing rapid structural changes characterised by mergers, strategic alliances, joint-ventures with foreign partners, foreign direct investment and acquisitions. Acquisitions remain the dominant form, although alliances are becoming more popular. The ability to expand, reduce costs and secure milk supplies are among the drivers behind this industry consolidation. The push to get bigger also comes from the fact that the dairy industry faces an even faster consolidating – and increasingly powerful – retail sector. The development of discount stores and private labels put additional pressure on milk processors, forcing them to look for further cuts in costs. In addition, in many developed countries, milk output is limited by production quotas, so processors have to battle for constrained domestic milk supplies. As a result, the dairy processing industry is becoming increasingly globalised as many companies are seeking to expand outside their domestic markets. This trend is further reinforced as the presence of trade barriers provides incentives for foreign companies to circumvent national border measures through investment in protected markets.

Informal markets affect trade participation in developing countries In developing countries, the increasing presence of foreign direct investment and multinational dairy companies, together with government efforts to promote milk production, is gradually improving milk productivity, product quality and collection of supplies. However, milk and milk products in developing countries continue to be extensively produced and marketed under dual conditions, one being the formal (commercial) sector, and the other the informal sector. The size of this informal sector remains very important. These two sectors are distinctly different in structure, conduct


91

5. DAIRY

and performance. The formal sector faces rising product standards and increasing competition from trade, and is affected mostly by growing urban markets. On the other hand, the informal sector produces low cost traditional products of varying standards, and supplies largely rural markets. By and large, the more important the informal sector, the less important is trade activity. As Figure 5.6 notes, the informal sector dominates in many developing countries and its share is high in many African countries, as well as in India and Pakistan. Over the medium term, growing urbanisation, decreasing infrastructural costs and improving information technologies will increase exposure of the informal markets and pressure them to change. The question is how quickly and to what extent the informal sector would be assimilated into the more formal one. The answer likely depends on a myriad of factors: economic development that would create viable alternatives to rural populations; the extent of foreign direct investment and adoption of new technologies; change in consumer preferences and diet; and trade opportunities for processed products.

Figure 5.6. Informal milk sector remains significant in developing countries % 100

75

50

Sub-Saharan Africa Source: ILRI.

Latin America

Sri Lanka

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

Mexico

Ethiopia

Uganda

Kenya

0

Tanzania

25

South Asia


Government intervention in dairy markets has been declining and this trend will likely continue. As a result, dairy co-operatives and processing firms will need to adopt increasingly a competitive market strategy. The traditional government policies of bulk surplus disposal, such as public stocks and subsidised exports of butter and SMP, can be expected to be progressively replaced by large dairy firms meeting specific demands from consumers across various, often extremely different, markets. Recent rapid growth of ingredient markets and quickly developing new products, based on milk components, give a notion of the shape of the dairy industry of the future. The ability to draw revenues from various product markets allows a co-operative or a firm to reduce commercial risks and limit price fluctuations for raw milk suppliers. This might be yet another impetus for

92


5. DAIRY

consolidation as large companies might be able to diversify and channel milk to various products to maximise their market returns. On the other hand, small niche firms, specialising in the lucrative dairy component market, are also likely to develop.1

Meeting quality and safety standards becomes the norm The capability to assure quality and safety of food is expected to become one of the key requirements for producers in the future. In a context of consumer-driven food safety and health concerns, traceability becomes the norm and this will require the adoption of new technologies. Of paramount importance for future dairy markets is the ability to attract new consumers and still appeal to existing ones. The share of milk and dairy products in consumers’ diets may suffer in a battle that is expected to intensify. In order to stay ahead of the competition, the dairy industry needs to remain pro-active and innovative in order to maintain the image of milk. In developing countries, with increasing incomes, consumers are gradually changing from cereals to protein products, so the image of dairy products will play a crucial role as these new consumers develop their habits and dietary patters.

1. These opportunities are partly driven by developments such as micro and ultra filtration of milk, enabling the separation of milk into its basic components. These components, especially those of the protein chain, are seen as multi-purpose nutraceuticals, cosmeceuticals and pharmaceuticals offering lucrative returns.


93


Methodology


95

METHODOLOGY

T

he projections presented and analysed in this document are the result of a process that brings together information from a large number of sources. The use of a model, based on the OECD’s Aglink model, and jointly developed by the OECD and FAO Secretariats, ensures consistency in this process. A large amount of expert judgement, however, is applied at various stages of the Outlook process. The Agricultural Outlook presents a single, unified assessment, judged by the OECD and FAO Secretariats to be plausible given the underlying assumptions, the procedure of information exchange outlined below and the information to which they had access to as of mid-April 2005. The starting point of the Outlook process is the reply by OECD member countries (and some non-member economies) to an annual questionnaire circulated at mid-year. Through these questionnaires, the OECD Secretariat obtains information from these countries on future commodity market developments and on the evolution of their agricultural policies. This information is supplemented by the FAO Secretariat for its members which are not part of the OECD. External sources, such as the World Bank and the IMF, are also used to complete the view of the main economic forces determining market developments. This part of the process is aimed at creating a first insight into possible market developments and at establishing the key assumptions which condition the Outlook. The main economic and policy assumptions are summarised in the Overview chapter and in specific commodity tables of the present report. The main macroeconomic variables assumed for the outlook period are based on the December 2004 medium term projections of the OECD’s Economics Department for OECD member countries, and on the Global Economic Prospects 2005 of the World Bank for other countries. While sometimes different from the macroeconomic assumptions provided through the questionnaire replies, it has been judged preferable to use just two consistent sources for these variables.

As a next step, the modelling framework jointly developed by the OECD and FAO Secretariats is used to facilitate a consistent integration of this information and to derive an initial set of global market projections (baseline). In addition to quantities produced, consumed and traded, the baseline also includes projections for nominal prices (in local currency units) for the commodities concerned. Unless otherwise stated, prices referred to in the text are also in nominal terms. The data series for the projections is drawn from OECD and FAO databases. For the most part information in these databases has been taken from national statistical sources. For further details on particular series, enquiries should be directed to the OECD and FAO Secretariats. The model provides a comprehensive dynamic economic and policy specific representation of major world producing and trading countries for the main temperate-zone commodities as well as rice and vegetable oils. A revised standalone sugar model has also been developed to produce a set of long term baseline projections for world and OECD sugar markets, covering raw and white (or refined) sugar. The modules are all developed by the OECD and FAO Secretariats in conjunction with country experts and, in some cases, with assistance from other national administrations. The initial baseline results are compared

96


METHODOLOGY

with those obtained from the questionnaire replies and issues arising are discussed in bilateral exchanges with country experts. On the basis of these discussions and of updated information, a second baseline is produced. The information generated is used to prepare market assessments for cereals, oilseeds, meats, dairy products and sugar over the course of the outlook period, which are normally discussed at the annual meetings of the Working Group on Meat and Dairy Products and the Working Group on Cereals, Animal Feeds and Sugar of the OECD Committee for Agriculture. Due to scheduling difficulties, these commodity meetings were not held in 2005. Instead, the commodity market assessments were reviewed by member countries under a written procedure. Following the receipt of comments under the written procedure and final data revisions, a last revision is made to the baseline projections. The revised projections form the basis of a draft of the present Agricultural Outlook publication, which is discussed by the Working Party on Agricultural Policies and Markets of the Committee for Agriculture, in April 2005, prior to publication. In addition, the Outlook will be used as a basis for analysis presented to the FAO’s Committee on Commodity Problems and its various Intergovernmental Commodity Groups. The Outlook process implies that the baseline projections presented in this report are conditioned by those developed by OECD member countries and other participating economies. It also reconciles inconsistencies between individual country projections through the use of a formal modelling framework. The review process ensures that judgement of country experts is brought to bear on the projections and related analyses. However, the final responsibility for the projections and their interpretation rests with the OECD and FAO Secretariats.


97


ANNEX A

Statistical Tables


99

ANNEX A

Table A.1. Economic assumptions Average 2004 1999-2003 est.

Calendar yeara

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

REAL GDPb Australia

%

3.4

3.6

3.8

3.6

3.3

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

Canada

%

3.6

3.0

3.3

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

EU-15

%

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

Japan

%

1.1

4.0

2.1

2.3

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Korea

%

6.4

5.0

4.5

5.0

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

Mexico

%

2.4

4.2

3.9

4.2

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

New Zealand

%

3.8

4.8

2.1

2.6

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

Norway

%

1.9

3.2

3.2

2.9

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

Switzerland

%

1.2

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Turkey

%

1.8

8.0

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

United States

%

2.8

4.4

3.3

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

OECDc, d

%

2.3

3.3

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

Argentina

%

–1.8

8.2

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

Brazil

%

2.0

1.8

2.9

4.9

4.5

4.4

3.8

3.6

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

China

%

8.0

11.3

9.0

8.6

8.3

8.2

7.2

7.0

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.4

India

%

5.8

6.0

6.5

6.0

6.0

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

Russia

%

8.1

6.6

9.4

4.9

2.5

2.6

2.3

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

South Africa

%

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

2.3

CPIb Australia

%

3.2

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

Canada

%

3.6

1.9

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

EU-15

%

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Japan

%

–0.6

–0.1

0.1

0.6

0.9

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

Korea

%

2.7

3.7

3.5

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

Mexico

%

8.4

4.6

4.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

New Zealand

%

1.9

2.3

3.0

2.8

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

Norway

%

2.4

0.5

1.9

2.1

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

Switzerland

%

0.9

0.8

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Turkey

%

58.8

25.3

11.1

10.3

7.1

6.8

5.0

5.8

3.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

United States

%

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.1

2.2

2.2

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

OECDc, d

%

3.0

2.4

2.2

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Argentina

%

6.8

4.8

7.1

7.9

6.3

5.2

4.2

3.9

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

Brazil

%

9.7

7.8

6.7

5.3

5.5

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

China

%

–0.1

4.2

3.1

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.9

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

India

%

5.0

4.0

5.0

5.9

4.1

2.9

2.3

3.2

2.0

2.5

2.5

2.5

Russia

%

8.1

10.8

9.6

7.1

3.8

3.1

3.5

2.3

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

South Africa

%

2.7

5.7

5.6

4.7

4.7

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.3

5.1

5.1

5.1

For notes, see end of the table. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

100


ANNEX A

Table A.1. Economic assumptions (cont.) Average 2004 1999-2003 est.

Calendar yeara

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

POPULATION Australia

million

19.4

20.1

20.3

20.5

20.7

20.8

21.0

21.1

21.3

21.4

21.5

21.7

Canada

million

31.0

31.9

32.1

32.3

32.5

32.7

32.9

33.0

33.1

33.2

33.3

33.4

EU-25

million

453.3

455.8

456.6

457.3

457.9

458.5

459.1

459.6

460.0

460.4

460.7

460.9

Japan

million

127.2

127.6

127.6

127.6

127.6

127.4

127.2

127.0

126.6

126.3

125.9

125.5

Korea

million

47.3

48.2

48.5

48.7

48.9

49.1

49.3

49.5

49.6

49.8

49.9

50.0

Mexico

million

99.1

103.2

104.7

106.2

107.7

109.2

110.7

112.2

113.7

115.2

116.8

118.3

New Zealand

million

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.3

Norway

million

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

Switzerland

million

7.2

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

Turkey

million

68.5

71.7

72.6

73.6

74.5

75.4

76.3

77.2

78.0

78.8

79.7

80.5

United States

million

285.5

294.1

296.6

299.1

301.5

303.8

306.2

308.5

310.8

313.1

315.3

317.6

OECDc

million

Argentina

million

37.5

38.8

39.2

39.5

39.9

40.2

40.6

40.9

41.3

41.7

42.0

42.4

Brazil

million

172.3

178.4

180.4

182.5

184.5

186.5

188.5

190.5

192.4

194.4

196.3

198.2

China

million

1 269.5 1 297.0 1 305.6 1 313.8 1 322.0 1 330.4 1 338.7 1 347.1 1 355.4 1 363.8 1 372.1 1 380.3

India

million

1 031.9 1 079.5 1 094.6 1 109.4 1 124.1 1 138.5 1 152.6 1 166.5 1 180.2 1 193.5 1 206.4 1 219.2

Russia

million

145.7

144.3

143.8

143.2

142.6

142.1

141.5

140.8

140.2

139.6

138.9

South Africa

million

44.2

45.0

45.2

45.3

45.5

45.6

45.8

46.0

46.2

46.4

46.6

46.8

Other Africa

million

690.7

735.8

750.6

765.1

780.0

795.1

810.5

826.1

841.7

857.6

873.8

890.1

1 147.0 1 168.7 1 175.1 1 181.4 1 187.5 1 193.3 1 198.9 1 204.4 1 209.6 1 214.7 1 219.7 1 224.5

138.3

Other Asia

million

Other Europe

million

1 054.9 1 106.6 1 124.1 1 141.7 1 159.1 1 176.3 1 193.4 1 210.3 1 227.1 1 243.8 1 260.5 1 277.2 87.7

86.4

85.9

85.5

85.1

84.7

84.3

83.9

83.4

83.0

82.6

82.2

Other Latin America

million

198.1

208.2

211.4

214.6

217.6

220.7

223.8

226.8

229.9

233.0

236.0

239.0

1.33

EXCHANGE RATE Australia

AUD/USD

1.72

1.36

1.33

1.33

1.33

1.33

1.33

1.33

1.33

1.33

1.33

Canada

CAD/USD

1.50

1.30

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

1.20

European Union

EUR/USD

1.02

0.81

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.77

Japan

JPY/USD

116.7

108.4

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

Korea

'000 KRW/USD

1.21

1.15

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

1.11

Mexico

MXN/USD

9.75

11.30

11.43

11.43

11.43

11.43

11.43

11.43

11.43

11.43

11.43

11.43 1.45

New Zealand

NZD/USD

2.07

1.51

1.45

1.45

1.45

1.45

1.45

1.45

1.45

1.45

1.45

Argentina

ARS/USD

1.83

2.94

3.13

3.24

3.31

3.36

3.39

3.39

3.40

3.40

3.41

3.41

Brazil

BRL/USD

2.40

2.99

3.13

3.27

3.38

3.49

3.59

3.72

3.84

3.97

4.09

4.23

China

CNY/USD

8.28

8.28

7.93

7.72

7.75

7.72

7.93

8.05

8.16

8.26

8.37

8.48

India

INR/USD

46.21

45.83

47.32

48.27

49.13

49.87

51.63

52.46

53.61

54.80

56.00

57.24

Russia

RUR/USD

28.8

29.1

28.4

28.0

28.7

29.4

30.5

31.1

31.9

32.8

33.7

34.6

South Africa

ZAR/USD

7.95

6.79

7.65

8.11

8.15

8.24

8.33

8.52

8.65

8.78

8.92

9.05

a) For OECD member countries, historical data for real GDP, population and exchange rate were obtained from the OECD Economic Outlook No. 76, December 2004, and for CPI from the OECD Main Economic Indicators, December 2004. For non-member economies, historical macroeconomic data were obtained from the World Bank, September 2004. Assumptions for the projection period draw on the recent medium term macroeconomic projections of the OECD Economics Department, projections of the World Bank and responses to a questionnaire sent to member country agricultural experts. Data for the European Union are for the euro area aggregates. b) Annual per cent change. For non-member economies the price index used is the private consumption expenditure deflator. c) Excludes Iceland. d) Annual weighted average real GDP and CPI growth rates in OECD countries are based on weights using 1995 GDP and purchasing power parities (PPPs). est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



101

ANNEX A

Table A.2. World pricesa Average 99/0003/04

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

USD/t

133.7

151.9

157.4

163.7

162.9

161.8

162.2

162.8

163.3

162.9

162.3

161.6

USD/t

98.8

101.3

109.9

117.2

118.6

118.8

119.1

120.1

120.6

120.9

120.6

120.6

USD/t

205.4

256.4

273.7

275.4

277.8

283.3

289.3

297.2

305.5

312.2

317.9

321.8

USD/t

234.3

234.6

228.5

235.5

236.6

242.5

246.3

251.3

253.7

257.3

260.4

264.3

USD/t

180.7

151.1

145.8

151.0

150.4

152.2

154.8

158.3

159.5

161.5

163.4

166.0

USD/t

437.2

532.2

523.0

529.8

544.3

563.3

570.6

580.1

590.8

601.4

610.4

618.5

WHEAT Priceb COARSE GRAINS Pricec RICE Priced OILSEEDS Pricee OILSEED MEALS Pricef VEGETABLE OILS Priceg SUGAR Price, raw sugarh

USD/t

179.0

219.1

188.6

182.3

179.3

195.7

174.2

172.0

169.8

185.2

172.0

165.3

Price, refined sugari

USD/t

225.4

251.9

222.2

215.6

212.5

229.3

207.2

205.0

202.8

218.3

205.0

198.4

257.3

BEEF AND VEAL Price, EUj

EUR/100 kg dw

243.4

241.6

240.1

241.6

246.0

247.8

249.7

253.3

255.5

255.0

256.4

Price, USAk

USD/100 kg dw

255.8

295.9

284.6

270.4

264.4

252.1

253.7

254.4

252.4

249.8

255.3

265.8

Price, Argentinal

ARS/100 kg dw

240.9

318.1

345.0

386.1

423.2

439.5

448.8

476.8

491.0

508.3

523.9

536.7

135.0

PIG MEAT Price, EUm

EUR/100 kg dw

128.6

123.1

125.9

133.0

135.7

132.0

128.9

129.7

132.3

131.7

133.9

Price, USAn

USD/100 kg dw

121.8

157.7

146.0

128.2

129.6

134.2

139.6

146.1

144.0

140.7

145.8

147.6

Price, Brazilo

BRL/100 kg dw

142.1

205.5

191.5

190.4

202.7

210.6

220.3

220.5

234.1

241.1

255.1

258.7

POULTRY MEAT Price, EUp

EUR/100 kg rtc

99.8

90.8

90.0

90.6

90.4

90.5

90.9

91.1

91.1

91.3

91.5

91.8

Price, USAq

USD/100 kg rtc

128.3

164.1

163.2

170.1

158.2

151.2

149.4

149.3

147.6

145.5

143.4

142.6

NZD/100 kg dw

350.2

374.1

372.3

374.9

391.6

395.7

397.8

401.4

403.3

404.5

405.0

405.5

USD/100 kg

135.2

186.7

186.4

182.8

176.4

180.4

181.9

182.5

183.0

184.3

185.0

186.2

USD/100 kg

188.2

270.6

247.9

237.9

229.4

221.6

222.6

224.1

225.4

226.3

227.4

228.7

SHEEP MEAT Price, New Zealandr BUTTER Prices CHEESE Pricet


102


ANNEX A

Table A.2. World pricesa (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

USD/100 kg

165.0

202.6

199.5

197.6

192.4

195.5

197.5

198.3

198.8

199.5

200.0

200.2

USD/100 kg

169.1

211.0

207.2

200.9

193.5

197.3

199.9

201.6

202.7

203.4

204.2

204.5

Wholesale price, USAw USD/100 kg

44.0

40.3

39.4

39.8

40.5

41.9

42.7

42.8

42.2

41.7

42.3

42.3

424.1

495.4

443.0

437.7

466.8

473.2

480.5

485.0

487.5

489.3

491.3

491.2

SKIM MILK POWDER Priceu WHOLE MILK POWDER Pricev WHEY POWDER

CASEIN Pricex

USD/100 kg

a) This table is a compilation of price information presented in the detailed commodity tables further in this annex. Prices for crops are on marketing year basis and those for meat and dairy products on calendar year basis (e.g. 04/05 is calendar year 2004). b) No. 2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, USA f.o.b. Gulf Ports (June/May). c) No. 2 yellow corn, US f.o.b. Gulf Ports (September/August). d) Milled, 100%, grade b, Nominal Price Quote, NPQ, f.o.b. Bangkok (August/July). e) Weighted average oilseed price, European port. f) Weighted average meal price, European port. g) Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port. h) Raw sugar world price, New York No. 11, f.o.b. stowed Caribbean port (including Brazil), bulk spot price. i) Refined sugar price, London No. 5 , f.o.b. Europe, spot. j) Producer price. k) Choice steers, 1 100-1 300 lb lw, Nebraska – lw to dw conversion factor 0.63. l) Buenos Aires wholesale price linier, young bulls. m) Pig producer price. n) Barrows and gilts, No. 1-3, 230-250 lb lw, Iowa/South Minnesota – lw to dw conversion factor 0.74. o) Producer price. p) Weighted average farm gate live chickens, first choice, lw to rtc conversion of 0.75, EU-15 starting in 1995. q) Wholesale weighted average broiler price 12 cities. r) Lamb schedule price, all grade average. s) F.o.b. export price, butter, 82% butterfat, northern Europe. t) F.o.b. export price, cheddar cheese, 40 lb blocks, Northern Europe. u) F.o.b. export price, non-fat dry milk, extra grade, Northern Europe. v) F.o.b. export price, WMP 26% butterfat, Northern Europe. w) Edible dry whey, Wisconsin, plant. x) Export price, New Zealand. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



103

ANNEX A

Table A.3. Main policy assumptions for cereal markets Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

ARGENTINA Crops export tax

%

8

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Rice export tax

%

4

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

CANADA Tariff-quotasb Wheat

kt

346

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

350

In-quota tariff

%

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

Out-of-quota tariff

%

63

62

62

62

62

62

62

62

62

62

62

62

kt

393

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

In-quota tariff

%

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Out-of-quota tariff

%

58

58

58

58

58

58

58

58

58

58

58

58

101

Barley

EUROPEAN UNIONc, d Cereal support pricee

EUR/t

107

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

Cereal compensationf, g

EUR/ha

284

290

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Rice support priceh

EUR/t

298

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

Compulsory set-aside rate

%

10

5

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Set-aside paymentg

EUR/ha

291

290

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Direct payment for rice

EUR/ha

329

1 120

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

475

EU-15

kt

946

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

3 332

EU-10

kt

..

448

448

448

448

448

448

448

448

448

448

448

EU-15

kt

2 782

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

3 122

EU-10

kt

..

347

347

347

347

347

347

347

347

347

347

347

Wheat tariff-quotab

Coarse grain tariff-quotab

Subsidised export limitsb Wheat

mt

15.8

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

EU-15

mt

14.7

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

14.4

EU-10

mt

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

mt

10.9

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

EU-15

mt

10.6

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

EU-10

mt

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

1 020

Coarse grainsi

JAPAN Rice land diversion program

’000 ha

985

1 020

1 020

1 020

1 020

1 020

1 020

1 020

1 020

1 020

1 020

Wheat support pricej

’000 JPY/t

146

138

138

138

138

138

138

138

138

138

138

138

Barley support pricek

’000 JPY/t

125

119

119

119

119

119

119

119

119

119

119

119

Wheat tariff-quota

5 740

kt

5 733

5 740

5 740

5 740

5 740

5 740

5 740

5 740

5 740

5 740

5 740

In-quota tariff

%

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

Out-of-quota tariff

%

502

488

488

488

488

488

488

488

488

488

488

488 1 369

Barley tariff-quota

kt

1 367

1 369

1 369

1 369

1 369

1 369

1 369

1 369

1 369

1 369

1 369

In-quota tariff

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Out-of-quota tariff

%

350

352

352

352

352

352

352

352

352

352

352

352

Rice tariff-quotal

kt

675

682

682

682

682

682

682

682

682

682

682

682

In-quota tariff

%

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Out-of-quota tariff

%

1 623

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689

1 689


104


ANNEX A

Table A.3. Main policy assumptions for cereal markets (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

KOREA Wheat tariff

%

8.0

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

Maize tariff-quota

kt

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

6 102

In-quota tariff

%

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

Out-of-quota tariff

%

417

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

404

Barley tariff-quota

kt

50

54

54

54

54

54

54

54

54

54

54

54

In-quota tariff

%

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

23

Out-of-quota tariff

%

372

359

359

359

359

359

359

359

359

359

359

359

kt

154

205

205

205

205

205

205

205

205

205

205

205

%

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Wheat tariff

%

12

12

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Coarse grain tariff

%

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Rice tariff

%

12

12

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Rice quotal In-quota tariff MERCOSUR

MEXICO Cereal income paymentm

MXN/ha

819

946

989

1 023

1 056

1 090

1 129

1 168

1 208

1 249

1 292

1 336

Wheat NAFTA tariff

%

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Fidelist social program

MXN mn

1 080

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tortilla consumption subsidy

MXN mn

84

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Maize tariff-quota

kt

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

2 501

In-quota tariff

%

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Out-of-quota tariff

%

200

194

194

194

194

194

194

194

194

194

194

194

Barley tariff-quota

kt

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

In-quota tariff

%

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Out-of-quota tariff

%

119

115

115

115

115

115

115

115

115

115

115

115

USD/t USD/t

98.0 75.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

101.0 76.8

USD/t USD/t mha mha mha

19.3 11.7 5.8 2.7 3.0

16.9 10.3 6.9 3.6 3.3

16.9 10.3 6.7 3.4 3.3

16.9 10.3 7.1 3.6 3.5

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

16.9 10.3 7.5 3.8 3.7

mt mt USD/t

14.7 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

14.5 1.6 0.0

UNITED STATES Wheat loan rate Maize loan rate Prod. flex. contract payment Wheat Maize CRP areasn Wheat Coarse grains Subsidised export limitsb Wheat Coarse grains Wheat EEP paymento CHINA Wheat support price

CNY/t

397

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Coarse grains support price

CNY/t

341

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Rice support price

CNY/t

1 301

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Wheat tariff-quota

kt

..

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

9 636

In-quota tariff

%

0.9

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

Out-of-quota tariff

%

62.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

65.0

Coarse grains tariff

%

8

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Maize tariff-quota

kt

3 510

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

7 200

In-quota tariff

%

1.5

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

Out-of-quota tariff

%

46.1

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.7

Rice tariff-quota

%

2 394

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

5 320

In-quota tariff

%

0.9

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

Out-of-quota tariff

%

53.1

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7

51.7



105

ANNEX A

Table A.3. Main policy assumptions for cereal markets (cont.) Crop yeara

Average 99/0003/04

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

1 427

INDIA Input subsidy rate coarse grainsp

INR/t

1 598

1 427

1 427

1 427

1 427

1 427

1 427

1 427

1 427

1 427

1 427

Input subsidy rate ricep

INR/t

741

732

732

732

732

732

732

732

732

732

732

732

Input subsidy rate wheatp

INR/t

1 842

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

2 017

Minimum support price Maize

INR/t

4 630

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

4 850

Rice

INR/t

4 630

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

5 500

Wheat

INR/t

5 960

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

6 200

Rice export subsidy

INR/t

1 969

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

3 132

Wheat export subsidy

INR/t

1 199

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

1 940

Wheat tariff

%

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

Maize tariff

%

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Rice tariff

%

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

Barley tariff

%

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

a) b) c) d)

Beginning crop marketing year – see Glossary of Terms for definitions. Year beginning 1 July. Prices and payments in market euro – see Glossary of Terms. EU farmers also benefit from the Single Farm Payment (SFP) Scheme, which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. The total amount spent under the SFP scheme, before modulation, is assumed to increase from 26.9 billion euro in 2005 to 28.4 billion euro in 2008 for the total of the 15 former member States. The final number is equivalent to 233 euro per hectare of eligible farm land on average. For the accession countries, payments are phased in with the assumption of maximum top-ups from national budgets. Due to modulation, between 2.7% and 4.6% of the total SFP will go to rural development spending rather than directly to the farmers. e) Common intervention price for soft wheat, barley, maize and sorghum. f) Compensatory area payments. g) Actual payments made per hectare based on program yields. h) Subject to a purchase limit of 75 000 tonnes per year. i) The export volume excludes 0.4 mt of exported potato starch. The original limit on subsidised exports is 10.8 mt. j) Government purchase price, domestic wheat. k) Government purchase price, barley, 2nd grade, 1st class. l) Husked rice basis. m) Applies to producers of wheat, maize and sorghum. n) Includes wheat, barley, maize, oats and sorghum. o) Average per tonne of total exports. p) Indian input subsidies consist of those for electricty, fertiliser and irrigation. Note: The source for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas is AMAD (Agricultural Market Access Database). The tariff and TRQ data are based on Most Favoured Nation rates scheduled with the WTO and exclude those under preferential or regional agreements, which may be substantially different. Tariffs are simple averages of several product lines. Specific rates are converted to ad valorem rates using world prices in the Outlook. Import quotas are based on global commitments scheduled in the WTO rather than those allocated to preferential partners under regional or other agreements. For Mexico, the NAFTA in-quota tariff on maize and barley is zero, while the tariff-rate quota becomes unlimited in 2003 for barley and 2008 for maize. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

106



ANNEX A

Table A.4. World cereal projections Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

WHEAT OECDb Production Consumption Feed use Closing stocks NON-OECD Production Consumption Feed use Net traded Closing stocks WORLDc Production Consumption Feed use Closing stocks Pricee COARSE GRAINS OECDb Production Consumption Feed use Closing stocks NON-OECD Production Consumption Feed use Net traded Closing stocks WORLDc Production Consumption Feed use Closing stocks Pricef RICE OECDb Production Consumption Closing stocks NON-OECD Production Consumption Net traded Closing stocks WORLDc Production Consumption Closing stocks Priceg

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

mt mt mt mt

241.9 194.0 67.8 56.1

263.9 199.5 70.9 53.4

257.9 199.1 69.9 53.8

262.3 200.8 70.5 55.4

265.8 202.6 70.9 57.4

269.0 204.9 72.2 58.9

270.2 206.6 72.7 58.9

273.5 208.3 73.2 59.2

275.6 209.7 73.6 59.6

278.2 211.3 74.3 60.2

280.1 212.9 75.1 60.9

281.8 214.5 75.9 61.6

mt mt mt mt mt

336.2 401.1 40.1 –50.8 167.6

357.2 405.7 36.7 –47.7 116.9

356.8 408.2 35.9 –47.8 113.3

358.9 408.7 36.1 –49.3 112.8

367.7 415.0 36.8 –50.6 116.0

374.1 423.5 37.8 –52.0 118.6

379.2 430.3 38.8 –53.0 120.5

384.2 436.9 40.0 –54.3 122.2

389.6 443.2 41.0 –55.0 123.6

395.1 449.3 42.1 –55.7 125.1

400.7 455.3 43.2 –55.9 126.4

406.3 461.3 44.4 –56.0 127.4

mt mt mt mt USD/t

578.1 595.2 107.9 223.7 133.7

621.1 605.2 107.6 170.3 151.9

614.7 607.3 105.7 167.1 157.4

621.2 609.5 106.6 168.2 163.7

633.4 617.6 107.6 173.5 162.9

643.1 628.4 110.0 177.5 161.8

649.3 636.9 111.5 179.4 162.2

657.7 645.2 113.1 181.4 162.8

665.2 652.9 114.7 183.1 163.3

673.4 660.6 116.4 185.3 162.9

680.8 668.2 118.4 187.3 162.3

688.1 675.8 120.3 189.1 161.6

mt mt mt mt

471.6 453.6 332.0 91.4

542.7 485.9 345.9 110.9

508.1 488.2 341.0 106.2

516.2 489.3 340.6 103.5

522.8 494.1 342.9 102.5

527.7 499.7 346.1 102.2

532.3 503.9 349.0 100.7

538.8 507.6 351.5 99.3

544.7 510.9 353.8 98.0

550.0 514.1 355.9 96.7

554.8 517.4 358.1 95.6

559.2 520.7 360.5 94.0

mt mt mt mt mt

422.3 461.0 262.4 –22.8 122.9

460.3 494.6 283.5 –26.4 75.8

458.7 498.7 286.6 –28.9 64.6

468.2 505.8 292.6 –34.0 61.0

481.2 515.6 299.2 –34.1 60.7

493.3 525.6 305.5 –32.6 61.0

503.4 537.1 313.6 –34.3 61.6

512.3 548.7 321.9 –36.8 62.0

520.7 560.0 330.0 –39.5 62.1

530.3 571.0 337.6 –41.4 62.8

539.9 582.0 345.2 –42.8 63.6

549.4 593.1 352.9 –44.5 64.4

mt mt mt mt USD/t

893.9 914.6 594.4 214.3 98.8

1 002.9 980.4 629.3 186.6 101.3

966.8 987.0 627.6 170.8 109.9

984.5 995.1 633.2 164.5 117.2

mt mt mt

23.2 23.2 7.6

23.7 22.5 7.3

23.0 22.7 7.2

23.1 22.8 7.1

23.1 22.9 7.0

23.1 23.0 7.1

23.1 23.1 7.2

23.2 23.1 7.2

23.3 23.2 7.2

23.3 23.2 7.3

23.4 23.3 7.5

23.4 23.4 7.6

mt mt mt mt

376.7 388.7 –1.4 126.0

384.4 399.5 –0.9 70.2

398.4 401.3 –1.3 68.5

409.5 407.5 –1.1 71.6

413.0 413.1 –1.1 72.6

416.4 417.4 –0.9 72.5

421.0 421.2 –0.7 73.0

425.9 425.9 –0.9 73.9

430.0 430.2 –0.9 74.5

434.2 434.4 –0.8 75.1

438.6 438.7 –0.7 75.7

442.7 442.6 –0.6 76.3

mt mt mt USD/t

399.9 411.9 133.7 205.4

408.1 422.1 77.5 256.4

421.4 424.0 75.7 273.7

432.5 430.3 78.8 275.4

436.1 436.0 79.7 277.8

439.5 440.4 79.6 283.3

444.1 444.3 80.2 289.3

449.2 449.0 81.1 297.2

453.3 453.4 81.7 305.5

457.6 457.7 82.4 312.2

461.9 462.0 83.2 317.9

466.1 466.0 84.0 321.8

1 004.0 1 021.0 1 035.7 1 051.0 1 065.4 1 080.3 1 094.7 1 108.6 1 009.7 1 025.3 1 041.0 1 056.3 1 070.9 1 085.1 1 099.4 1 113.8 642.0 651.6 662.6 673.4 683.7 693.5 703.3 713.3 163.2 163.2 162.3 161.3 160.1 159.6 159.2 158.4 118.6 118.8 119.1 120.1 120.6 120.9 120.6 120.6

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Excludes Iceland but includes Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovenia. c) Source of historic data is USDA. d) Non-OECD net exports (imports) equal OECD net imports (exports). e) No. 2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, USA f.o.b. Gulf Ports (June/May). f) No. 2 yellow corn, US f.o.b. Gulf Ports (September/August). g) Milled, 100%, grade b, Nominal Price Quote, NPQ, f.o.b. Bangkok (August/July). est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



107

ANNEX A

Table A.5. Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

ARGENTINA Oilseed export tax

%

12.2

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

23.5

Oilseed meal export tax

%

8.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

Oilseed oil export tax

%

8.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

AUSTRALIA Tariffs Soyabean oil

%

9.8

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

Rapeseed oil

%

9.8

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

%

8.0

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

CANADA Tariffs Rapeseed oil EUROPEAN

UNIONc, d

Oilseed compensatione, f

EUR/ha

338

290

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Compulsory set-aside rate

%

12.0

5

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Set-aside paymentf

EUR/ha

354.9

290

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tariffs Soyabean oil

%

7.6

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

Rapeseed oil

%

7.6

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

..

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

139.2

JAPAN Deficiency payments Soyabeans

bn JPY

Tariffs Soyabean oil

%

13.7

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

Rapeseed oil

%

33.3

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.4

1 032

KOREA Soyabean tariff-quota

kt

1 238

1 032

1 032

1 032

1 032

1 032

1 032

1 032

1 032

1 032

1 032

In-quota tariff

%

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Out-of-quota tariff

%

607

487

487

487

487

487

487

487

487

487

487

487

199

137

131

131

126

124

120

117

113

110

107

104

944

946

989

1 023

1 056

1 090

1 129

1 168

1 208

1 249

1 292

1 336 33.0

Soyabean (for food) mark up ’000 KRW/t MEXICO Soyabeans income paymentg MXN/ha Tariffs Soyabeans

%

41.1

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

Soyabean meal

%

34.3

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

23.8

Soyabean oil

%

56.1

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

228.1

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

183.7

2.3

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5 3.0

UNITED STATES Soyabeans loan rate

USD/t

CRP area Soyabeans

mha

Tariffs Rapeseed

%

3.6

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

Soyabean meal

%

2.8

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

Rapeseed meal

%

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Soyabean oil

%

15.5

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.7

Rapeseed oil

%

3.9

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

kt

223.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

141.0

Subsidised export limitsb Oilseed oils


108


ANNEX A

Table A.5. Main policy assumptions for oilseed markets (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

CHINA Soyabeans support price

CNY/t

749.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tariffsb Soyabeans

%

59.8

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

Soyabean meal

%

14.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

Soyabean oil in-quota tariff % Vegetable oil tariff-quota

kt

.. 3 438.1

6 944.6 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1 7 998.1

INDIA Input subsidy rate, oilseedsh INR/t

4 026

3 841

3 841

3 841

3 841

3 841

3 841

3 841

3 841

3 841

3 841

Soyabean tariff

%

120

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

3 841 100

Rapeseed tariff

%

120

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Sunflower tariff

%

120

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Oilseed tariff

%

120

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Soyabean meal tariff

%

150

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

Rapeseed meal tariff

%

120

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Sunflower meal tariff

%

120

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Soyabean oil tariff

%

54

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

Rapeseed oil tariff

%

54

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

Sunflower oil tariff

%

360

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

Palm oil tariff

%

360

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

Vegetables oil tariff

%

238

198

198

198

198

198

198

198

198

198

198

198

a) b) c) d)

Beginning crop marketing year – see Glossary of Terms for definitions. Calendar year, except for China and subsidised export limit in USA, beginning 1 July. Prices and payments in market euro – see Glossary of Terms. EU farmers also benefit from the Single Farm Payment (SFP) Scheme, which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. The total amount spent under the SFP scheme, before modulation, is assumed to increase from 26.9 billion euro in 2005 to 28.4 billion euro in 2008 for the total of the 15 former member States. The final number is equivalent to 233 euro per hectare of eligible farm land on average. For the accession countries, payments are phased in with the assumption of maximum top-ups from national budgets. Due to modulation, between 2.7% and 4.6% of the total SFP will go to rural development spending rather than directly to the farmers. e) Compensatory area payments, before penalties. f) Payments made per hectare based on regional yields. g) Weighted average of autumn/winter and spring/summer. h) Indian input subsidies consist of those for electricty, fertiliser and irrigation. Note: The source for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas is AMAD (Agricultural Market Access Database). The tariff and TRQ data are based on Most Favoured Nation rates scheduled with the WTO and exclude those under preferential or regional agreements, which may be substantially different. Tariffs are simple averages of several product lines. Specific rates are converted to ad valorem rates using world prices in the Outlook. Import quotas are based on global commitments scheduled in the WTO rather than those allocated to preferential partners under regional or other agreements. For Mexico, the NAFTA tariffs on soyabeans, oil meals and soyabean oil are zero after 2003. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



109

ANNEX A

ANNEX A

Table A.6. World oilseed projections Average 99/0003/04

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

mt mt mt mt

104.9 107.9 96.9 14.9

119.5 110.3 99.0 22.1

111.4 113.3 101.5 22.5

111.5 115.2 103.5 19.6

115.0 117.7 105.8 17.8

116.6 119.1 107.1 16.6

119.0 120.9 108.9 16.3

120.4 122.6 110.5 16.1

122.3 124.5 112.3 16.3

123.7 126.3 114.0 16.5

125.7 128.0 115.6 16.8

127.6 129.6 117.1 17.0

mt mt mt mt mt

132.7 133.3 112.1 –1.1 8.1

163.7 159.9 136.4 1.6 10.8

169.1 166.3 142.2 2.3 11.2

170.8 170.4 146.0 0.8 10.8

176.3 175.2 150.4 0.8 11.1

181.4 180.0 155.0 1.2 11.3

186.8 185.0 159.7 1.6 11.5

192.6 190.2 164.6 2.1 11.7

198.4 195.6 169.7 2.4 12.1

204.0 201.0 174.8 2.7 12.3

209.6 206.7 180.1 2.7 12.5

214.9 212.3 185.5 2.3 12.7

mt mt mt mt USD/t

237.7 241.2 209.1 23.0 234.3

283.2 270.2 235.3 32.8 234.6

280.5 279.6 243.7 33.7 228.5

282.3 285.7 249.4 30.4 235.5

291.3 292.8 256.1 28.9 236.6

298.1 299.1 262.1 27.8 242.5

305.8 305.9 268.6 27.7 246.3

313.0 312.8 275.1 27.9 251.3

320.7 320.1 282.0 28.4 253.7

327.7 327.3 288.8 28.8 257.3

335.2 334.7 295.7 29.3 260.4

342.4 342.0 302.6 29.7 264.3

mt mt mt

70.8 90.9 2.8

71.2 97.5 2.9

73.2 100.7 2.6

74.6 101.9 2.6

76.3 103.6 2.7

77.3 105.3 2.7

78.6 107.0 2.7

79.7 108.6 2.7

81.0 110.2 2.8

82.2 111.8 2.8

83.3 113.6 2.9

84.4 115.2 2.9

mt mt mt mt

80.5 60.3 20.1 3.0

98.7 71.6 26.4 4.0

103.2 75.9 27.2 4.1

106.2 79.0 27.2 4.1

109.6 82.1 27.3 4.2

113.0 84.9 28.1 4.2

116.6 88.1 28.5 4.3

120.3 91.4 28.9 4.3

124.2 94.8 29.3 4.4

128.0 98.3 29.7 4.4

132.0 101.7 30.3 4.5

136.1 105.2 30.8 4.5

151.3 151.2 5.8 180.7

169.9 169.1 6.9 151.1

176.4 176.6 6.8 145.8

180.8 180.9 6.7 151.0

185.9 185.7 6.8 150.4

190.3 190.3 6.9 152.2

195.2 195.1 7.0 154.8

200.0 199.9 7.0 158.3

205.1 205.0 7.1 159.5

210.2 210.1 7.2 161.5

215.4 215.3 7.3 163.4

220.5 220.4 7.4 166.0

mt mt mt

23.1 25.6 2.2

23.4 27.4 1.8

23.9 28.1 1.8

24.4 28.7 1.9

25.0 29.2 1.9

25.3 29.6 1.9

25.7 30.2 1.9

26.1 30.7 2.0

26.6 31.3 2.0

27.0 31.8 2.0

27.5 32.4 2.1

27.9 33.0 2.1

mt mt mt mt

52.2 47.2 5.0 4.7

62.5 57.5 5.0 4.5

65.0 60.0 5.0 4.5

66.9 61.7 5.2 4.5

69.0 63.7 5.2 4.6

71.2 65.8 5.3 4.7

73.4 67.8 5.4 4.8

75.6 70.0 5.5 4.9

77.9 72.1 5.6 5.0

80.1 74.2 5.8 5.1

82.4 76.3 5.9 5.2

84.6 78.4 6.1 5.3

75.3 25.8 72.8 6.8 437.2

85.9 30.8 84.8 6.4 532.2

88.9 32.0 88.0 6.3 523.0

91.3 33.2 90.4 6.3 529.8

94.0 34.4 92.9 6.4 544.3

96.5 35.6 95.5 6.6 563.3

99.1 36.7 98.0 6.8 570.6

101.8 37.8 100.7 6.9 580.1

104.5 38.9 103.4 7.0 590.8

107.1 40.0 106.0 7.1 601.4

109.8 41.0 108.7 7.3 610.4

112.5 42.1 111.4 7.4 618.5

Marketing yeara

OILSEEDS OECDb Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks NON-OECD Production Consumption Crush Net tradec Closing stocks WORLDd Production Consumption Crush Closing stocks Pricee OILSEED MEALS OECDb Production Consumption Closing stocks NON-OECD Production Consumption Net tradec Closing stocks WORLDd Production Consumption Closing stocks Pricef VEGETABLE OILS OECDb Production Consumption Closing stocks NON-OECD Production Consumption Net tradec Closing stocks WORLDd Production of which: Palm oil Consumption Closing stocks Oil priceg

mt mt mt USD/t

mt mt mt mt USD/t

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Excludes Iceland but includes Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovenia. c) Non-OECD net exports (imports) equal OECD net imports (exports). d) Source of historic data is USDA. e) Weighted average oilseed price, European port. f) Weighted average meal price, European port. g) Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

110



ANNEX A

Table A.7. Main policy assumptions for meat markets Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5 76

ARGENTINA Beef export tax

%

CANADA Beef tariff-quota

76

76

76

76

76

76

76

76

76

76

76

In-quota tariff

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Out-of-quota tariff

%

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

kt pw

45

Poultry meat tariff-quota

kt pw

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

In-quota tariff

%

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Out-of-quota tariff

%

199

197

197

197

197

197

197

197

197

197

197

197

Beef basic pricec, d, e

EUR/kg dw

2.84

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

2.22

Beef buy-in pricec, f

EUR/kg dw

..

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

1.56

Pig meat basic priced

EUR/kg dw

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

1.51

Sheep meat basic price

EUR/kg dw

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

5.04

Sheep basic rateg

EUR/head

..

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

21.0

Male bovine premiumh

EUR/head

198

229

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

EUROPEAN UNIONa, b

Adult bovine slaughter premiumi

EUR/head

65

102

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Calf slaughter premium

EUR/head

30

50

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Suckler cow premium

EUR/head

178

200

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

EU-15

kt pw

164

164

164

164

164

164

164

164

164

164

164

164

EU-10

kt pw

..

52

52

52

52

52

52

52

52

52

52

52

EU-15

kt pw

62

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

EU-10

kt pw

..

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

101

EU-15

kt pw

29

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

EU-10

kt pw

..

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

Beef tariff-quota

Pig meat tariff-quota

Poultry meat tariff-quota

Sheep meat tariff-quota EU-15

kt cwe

285

285

285

285

285

285

285

285

285

285

285

285

EU-10

kt cwe

..

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

EU-15

kt cwe

834

822

822

822

822

822

822

822

822

822

822

822

EU-10

kt pw

..

106

106

106

106

106

106

106

106

106

106

106

Subsidised export limitsd Beefj

Pig meatj EU-15

kt cwe

EU-10

kt pw

448

444

444

444

444

444

444

444

444

444

444

444

..

142

142

142

142

142

142

142

142

142

142

142

292

286

286

286

286

286

286

286

286

286

286

286

..

158

158

158

158

158

158

158

158

158

158

158

Poultry meat EU-15

kt cwe

EU-10

kt pw

JAPANk Beef stabilisation prices Upper price

JPY/kg dw

1 017

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

1 010

Lower price

JPY/kg dw

784

780

780

780

780

780

780

780

780

780

780

780

..

41

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

39

Beef tariff

%

Pig meat stabilisation prices Upper price

JPY/kg dw

484

480

480

480

480

480

480

480

480

480

480

480

Lower price

JPY/kg dw

366

365

365

365

365

365

365

365

365

365

365

365

Pig meat import systeml Tariff

%

Standard import price

JPY/kg dw

Poultry meat tariff

%

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

412

410

410

410

410

410

410

410

410

410

410

410

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7



111

ANNEX A

Table A.7. Main policy assumptions for meat markets (cont.) Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

41 2 24 22

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

40 0 22 21

KOREA Beef tariff Beef mark-up Pig meat tariff Poultry meat tariff

% % % %

MEXICO Pig meat tariff Pig meat NAFTA tariff Poultry meat tariff-quota In-quota tariff Out-of-quota tariff

% % kt pw % %

47 4 41 50 235

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

45 0 41 50 228

RUSSIA Beef tariff-quota In-quota tariff Out-of-quota tariff Pig meat tariff-quota In-quota tariff Out-of-quota tariff Poultry meat tariff-quota In-quota tariff

kt pw % % kt pw % % kt pw %

.. 15 .. .. 15 .. .. 27

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

420 15 60 450 15 80 1 050 25

UNITED STATES Beef tariff-quota In-quota tariff Out-of-quota tariff

kt pw % %

665 5 27

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

697 5 26

CHINA Beef tariff Pig meat tariff Sheep meat tariff Poultry meat tariff

% % % %

35 19 20 20

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 15 19

16 16 16 19

INDIA Beef tariff Pig meat tariff Sheep meat tariff Poultry meat tariff Eggs tariff

% % % % %

112 112 102 103 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

100 100 92 87 150

SOUTH AFRICA Sheepmeat tariff-quota In-quota tariff Out-of-quota tariff

kt pw % %

6 20 132

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

6 20 96

a) Prices and payments in market euro's – see Glossary of Terms. b) EU farmers also benefit from the Single Farm Payment (SFP) Scheme, which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. The total amount spent under the SFP scheme, before modulation, is assumed to increase from 26.9 billion euro in 2005 to 28.4 billion euro in 2008 for the total of the 15 former member States. The final number is equivalent to 233 euro per hectare of eligible farm land on average. For the accession countries, payments are phased in with the assumption of maximum top-ups from national budgets. Due to modulation, between 2.7% and 4.6% of the total SFP will go to rural development spending rather than directly to the farmers. c) Price for R3 grade male cattle. d) Year beginning 1 July, except for E10 which is calendar year. Poland has a commitment on export subsidies on unspecified meat. e) Ending 1 July 2002, replaced by basic price for storage. f) Starting 1 July 2002. g) A supplementary payment of 7 euro per head is provided for Less Favoured Areas. h) Weighted average of all bull and steers payments. i) Includes national envelopes for beef. j) Includes live trade. k) Year beginning 1 April. l) Pig carcass imports. Emergency import procedures triggered from November 1995 to March 1996, from July 1996 to June 1997, from August 2001 to March 2002, from August 2002 to March 2003 and from August 2003 to March 2004. Note: The source for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas (excluding Russia) is AMAD (Agricultural Market Access Database). The tariff and TRQ data are based on Most Favoured Nation rates scheduled with the WTO and exclude those under preferential or regional agreements, which may be substantially different. Tariffs are simple averages of several product lines. Specific rates are converted to ad valorem rates using world prices in the Outlook. Import quotas are based on global commitments scheduled in the WTO rather than those allocated to preferential partners under regional or other agreements. For Mexico, the NAFTA in-quota tariff on poultry meat is zero and the tariff-rate quota is unlimited from 2003. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats. Statlink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/155720532367

112


ANNEX A

Table A.8. World meat projections Average 1999-03

Calendar year

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

OECDa BEEF AND VEALb Production

kt cwe

26 770

26 197 26 816 27 006 27 165 27 386 27 327 27 438 27 463 27 539 27 600 27 603

Consumption

kt cwe

26 368

26 614 27 300 27 451 27 590 27 778 27 784 27 951 28 035 28 137 28 250 28 292

Ending stocks

kt cwe

1 021

894

846

823

800

778

759

759

759

759

759

759

Per capita consumption kg rwt

16.1

15.9

16.3

16.3

16.3

16.3

16.2

16.2

16.2

16.2

16.2

16.2 226

Price, Australiac

AUD/100 kg dw

258

280

261

230

225

216

217

217

216

214

218

Price, EUd

EUR/100 kg dw

243

242

240

242

246

248

250

253

255

255

256

257

Price, USAe

USD/100 kg dw

256

296

285

270

264

252

254

254

252

250

255

266

Price, Argentinaf

ARS/100 kg dw

241

318

345

386

423

439

449

477

491

508

524

537

PIG MEATg Production

kt cwe

35 595

36 522 36 917 37 151 37 411 37 786 38 190 38 412 38 692 38 941 39 107 39 376

Consumption

kt cwe

34 531

35 244 35 724 36 029 36 351 36 663 37 042 37 315 37 599 37 850 38 033 38 312

Ending stocks

kt cwe

692

587

610

605

558

542

550

542

552

551

545

554


23.5

23.5

23.7

23.8

23.9

24.0

24.1

24.2

24.2

24.3

24.3

24.4

Price, EUh

EUR/100 kg dw

129

123

126

133

136

132

129

130

132

132

134

135

Price, USAi

USD/100 kg dw

122

158

146

128

130

134

140

146

144

141

146

148

POULTRY MEAT Production

kt rtc

33 648

35 457 36 116 36 058 36 703 37 262 37 939 38 677 39 291 39 952 40 896 41 678

Consumption

kt rtc

31 569

33 474 34 161 34 101 34 772 35 366 36 094 36 849 37 475 38 134 39 085 39 870

Stock changes

kt rtc

2

4

–44

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2


24.2

25.2

25.6

25.4

25.8

26.1

26.5

26.9

27.3

27.6

28.2

28.7

Price, EUj

EUR/100 kg rtc

100

91

90

91

90

90

91

91

91

91

91

92

Price, USAk

USD/100 kg rtc

128

164

163

170

158

151

149

149

148

145

143

143

SHEEP MEAT Production

kt cwe

2 801

2 592

2 622

2 634

2 620

2 618

2 612

2 620

2 629

2 646

2 666

2 690

Consumption

kt cwe

2 454

2 391

2 397

2 401

2 410

2 422

2 436

2 453

2 464

2 475

2 490

2 508

Stock changes

kt cwe

16

–16

17

16

16

16

16

16

16

14

13

13


1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Price, Australial

AUD/100 kg dw

271

365

340

329

319

309

299

290

281

272

263

254

Price, Australiam

AUD/100 kg dw

130

211

196

190

184

178

173

167

162

157

152

147

Price, New Zealandn

NZD/100 kg dw

350

374

372

375

392

396

398

401

403

404

405

406

65.7

66.5

67.4

67.2

67.7

68.1

68.6

69.1

69.5

69.9

70.5

71.0

TOTAL MEAT Per capita consumption kg rwt For notes, see end of the table. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.


113

ANNEX A

Table A.8. World meat projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar year

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

NON-OECD BEEF AND VEAL Productiono

kt cwe

32 733

Net trade

kt cwe

173

Consumption

kt cwe

32 900


4.9

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.6

Stock changes

kt cwe

17

–5

–3

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

35 936 36 370 37 141 37 918 38 926 39 899 41 006 42 002 43 055 44 092 45 187 985

620

640

716

881

889

963

1 024

1 057

1 120

1 181

35 379 36 080 36 858 37 571 38 420 39 398 40 437 41 383 42 429 43 429 44 496

PIG MEAT Productiono

kt cwe

56 579

Net trade

kt cwe

–148

Consumption

kt cwe

57 533


9.5

10.0

10.1

10.3

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.8

10.9

11.0

11.0

11.2

Stock changes

–2

–4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

kt cwe

62 339 64 015 66 107 68 281 69 112 70 599 72 299 73 780 75 209 76 649 78 422 346

323

364

435

399

395

474

498

497

510

537

62 982 64 680 66 754 68 976 69 863 71 359 72 939 74 426 75 838 77 270 79 004

POULTRY MEAT Production

kt rtc

33 848

Net trade

kt rtc

–2 077

–1 979 –1 999 –1 957 –1 930 –1 895 –1 844 –1 827 –1 815 –1 817 –1 810 –1 807

Consumption

kt rtc

35 881

38 658 39 803 41 090 41 971 42 945 44 097 45 250 46 347 47 376 48 555 49 695

Per capita consumption kg rwt Stock changes

kt rtc

37 205 38 590 39 822 40 496 41 570 42 807 44 003 45 109 46 219 47 356 48 559

6.7

6.9

7.0

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

2

–140

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

SHEEP MEAT Productionp

kt cwe

8 014

8 675

8 915

9 101

9 321

9 574

9 845 10 089 10 341 10 600 10 866 11 135

Net trade

kt cwe

–330

–217

–207

–216

–194

–180

–159

Consumptionp

kt cwe

8 312

8 941

9 085

9 262

9 515

9 801 10 076 10 343 10 602 10 870 11 145 11 422

Per capita consumptionp

kg rwt

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

Stock changes

kt cwe

3

–1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


22.6

23.5

23.8

24.2

24.6

24.8

25.1

25.4

25.7

26.0

26.3

26.6

–152

–149

–157

–163

–170

TOTAL MEAT

a) Excludes Iceland but includes Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovenia. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pig meat and 0.88 for sheep meat. Rtc to retail weight conversion factor 0.88 for poultry meat. b) Do not balance due to statistical differences in New Zealand. c) Weighted average price of cows 201-260 kg, steers 301-400 kg, yearling < 200 kg dw. d) Producer price. e) Choice steers, 1 100-1 300 lb lw, Nebraska – lw to dw conversion factor 0.63. f) Buenos Aires wholesale price linier, young bulls. g) Do not balance due to consumption in Canada which excludes non-food parts. h) Pig producer price. i) Barrows and gilts, No. 1-3, 230-250 lb lw, Iowa/South Minnesota – lw to dw conversion factor 0.74. j) Weighted average farmgate live fowls, top quality (lw to rtc conversion of 0.75), EU-15 starting in 1995. k) Wholesale weighted average broiler price 12 cities. l) Saleyard price, lamb, 16-20 kg dw. m) Saleyard price, wethers, < 22 kg dw. n) Lamb schedule price, all grade average. o) Includes trade of live animals. p) Excludes Argentina, Brazil and Russia. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

114



ANNEX A

Table A.9. Main policy assumptions for dairy markets Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

ARGENTINA Dairy export tax

%

CANADA Milk target priceb

CADc/litre

58

63

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

81

83

85

Butter support price

CAD/t

5 745

6 371

6 689

6 924

7 159

7 393

7 628

7 862

8 097

8 331

8 566

8 800

SMP support price

CAD/t

4 827

5 239

5 737

5 913

6 037

6 175

6 311

6 443

6 562

6 689

6 810

6 941

Dairy subsidy

CAD c/hl

1.15

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Cheese tariff-quota

kt pw

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

In-quota tariff

%

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Out-of-quota tariff

%

247

246

246

246

246

246

246

246

246

246

246

246

Subsidised export limitsc Cheese

kt pw

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

SMP

kt pw

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

45

EUROPEAN UNIONd, e, f Milk quotag

mt pw

137 813

139

139

140

140

141

141

141

141

141

141

141

Butter intervention price

EUR/t

3 282

3 167

2 938

2 708

2 528

2 462

2 462

2 462

2 464

2 464

2 464

2 464

SMP intervention price

EUR/t

2 055

2 004

1 901

1 798

1 747

1 747

1 747

1 747

1 747

1 747

1 747

1 747

EU-15

kt pw

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

EU-10

kt pw

..

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

EU-15

kt pw

97

102

102

102

102

102

102

102

102

102

102

102

EU-10

kt pw

..

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

EU-15

kt pw

66

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

EU-10

kt pw

..

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

kt pw

403

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

399

EU-15

kt pw

325

321

321

321

321

321

321

321

321

321

321

321

EU-10

kt pw

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

EU-15

kt pw

275

273

273

273

273

273

273

273

273

273

273

273

EU-10

kt pw

96

95

95

95

95

95

95

95

95

95

95

95

Butter tariff-quotas

Cheese tariff-quotah

SMP tariff-quota

Subsidised export limitsa Butter EU-25 Cheese

SMP

JAPAN

d

Direct paymentsi

JPY/kg

..

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

Cheese tariffj

%

32

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

Tariff-quotas Butter

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

In-quota tariff

%

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

Out-of-quota tariff

%

717

733

733

733

733

733

733

733

733

733

733

733

kt pw

116

116

116

116

116

116

116

116

116

116

116

116

SMP

kt pw

In-quota tariff

%

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

Out-of-quota tariff

%

225

210

210

210

210

210

210

210

210

210

210

210

WMP

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

In-quota tariff

t pw %

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Out-of-quota tariff

%

327

316

316

316

316

316

316

316

316

316

316

316



115

ANNEX A

Table A.9. Main policy assumptions for dairy markets (cont.) Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0.4

KOREA Tariff-qotas Butter

kt pw

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

In-quota tariff

%

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

Out-of-quota tariff

%

89

89

89

89

89

89

89

89

89

89

89

89 1.0

SMP

kt pw

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

In-quota tariff

%

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Out-of-quota tariff

%

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176 0.6

WMP

kt pw

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

In-quota tariff

%

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

Out-of-quota tariff

%

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

176

%

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

MEXICO Butter tariff Tariff-quotas Cheese In-quota tariff Out-of-quota tariff SMP

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

%

kt pw

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

%

129

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

90

kt pw

In-quota tariff

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Out-of-quota tariff

%

129

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

1 426

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

400

Liconsa social program

MXN mn

RUSSIA Butter tariff

%

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Cheese tariff

%

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

Milk support priceb

USDc/litre

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

Target pricel

USDc/litre

..

38.5

38.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Butter support price

USD/t

1 772

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 315

2 316

SMP support price

USD/t

2 049

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

1 764

Butter tariff-quota

UNITED STATESk

kt pw

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

In-quota tariff

%

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Out-of-quota tariff

%

111

112

112

112

112

112

112

112

112

112

112

112

kt pw

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

Cheese tariff-quota In-quota tariff

%

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

Out-of-quota tariff

%

89

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

87

Subsidised export limitsa Butter

kt pw

22

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

SMP

kt pw

70

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68

68


116


ANNEX A

Table A.9. Main policy assumptions for dairy markets (cont.) Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

INDIA Milk tariff

%

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

Butter tariff

%

58

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

Cheese tariff

%

44

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

Whole milk powder tariff

%

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

SOUTH AFRICA Milk powder tariff-quota

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

In-quota tariff

%

kt pw

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Out-of-quota tariff

%

102

81

81

81

81

81

81

81

81

81

81

81

a) Year ending 30 June. b) For manufacturing milk. c) The effective volume of cheese and SMP subsidized exports will be lower reflecting the binding nature of subsidized export limits in value terms. d) Year beginning 1 April. e) Prices and payments in market euro's – see Glossary of Terms. f) EU farmers also benefit from the Single Farm Payment (SFP) Scheme, which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. The total amount spent under the SFP scheme, before modulation, is assumed to increase from 26.9 billion euro in 2005 to 28.4 billion euro in 2008 for the total of the 15 former member States. The final number is equivalent to 233 euro per hectare of eligible farm land on average. For the accession countries, payments are phased in with the assumption of maximum top-ups from national budgets. Due to modulation, between 2.7% and 4.6% of the total SFP will go to rural development spending rather than directly to the farmers. g) Total quota, EU-25 starting in 1999. h) Calendar year minimum access for Australia, New Zealand and Canada before 1995. i) In addition to direct payments, a further payment is provided – equal to 80% difference between the market price and the base price (the average price of the past three years). j) Excludes processed cheese. k) Year beginning 1 January. l) The counter-cyclical payment is determined as a 45% difference between the target price and the Boston class I price. Note: The source for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas (except Russia) is AMAD (Agricultural Market Access Database). The tariff and TRQ data are based on Most Favoured Nation rates scheduled with the WTO and exclude those under preferential or regional agreements, which may be substantially different. Tariffs are simple averages of several product lines. Specific rates are converted to ad valorem rates using world prices in the Outlook. Import quotas are based on global commitments scheduled in the WTO rather than those allocated to preferential partners under regional or other agreements. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



117

ANNEX A

Table A.10. World dairy projections (butter and cheese) Calendar yeara

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

BUTTER OECDb, c Production

kt pw

3 608

3 492

3 410

3 417

3 400

3 392

3 380

3 384

3 386

3 388

3 385

3 388

Consumption

kt pw

3 053

2 968

2 991

2 964

2 942

2 924

2 921

2 917

2 910

2 898

2 881

2 869

Stock changes

kt pw

39

–53

–63

–48

–39

–8

–9

–2

–1

3

7

10

NON-OECD Production

kt pw

3 994

4 717

4 921

4 998

5 045

5 220

5 426

5 588

5 775

5 965

6 159

6 351

Consumption

kt pw

4 384

5 088

5 259

5 385

5 485

5 661

5 869

6 041

6 230

6 417

6 610

6 804

Net traded

kt pw

–382

–370

–339

–388

–438

–439

–441

–451

–452

–450

–448

–451

WORLDc Production

kt pw

7 602

8 209

8 331

8 415

8 445

8 612

8 806

8 972

9 162

9 353

9 544

9 739

Consumption

kt pw

7 437

8 057

8 251

8 350

8 427

8 585

8 790

8 958

9 139

9 315

9 491

9 673

Stock changes

kt pw

31

–51

–58

–44

–37

–6

–7

0

1

5

9

12

Pricee

USD/100 kg

135

187

186

183

176

180

182

183

183

184

185

186

CHEESE OECDb Production

kt pw

13 268

13 873 14 201 14 508 14 778 15 017 15 289 15 530 15 730 15 941 16 128 16 314

Consumption

kt pw

12 853

13 488 13 802 14 074 14 332 14 562 14 824 15 062 15 260 15 465 15 645 15 826

Stock changes

kt pw

9

–12

–1

0

0

–1

1

0

1

0

2

–1

NON-OECD Production

kt pw

3 459

3 625

3 709

3 762

3 853

3 922

4 039

4 163

4 294

4 415

4 544

4 667

Consumption

kt pw

3 803

3 975

4 079

4 187

4 311

4 452

4 578

4 709

4 829

4 943

5 061

5 178

Net traded

kt pw

–339

–333

–363

–418

–451

–523

–532

–539

–527

–521

–510

–504

WORLD Production

kt pw

16 728

17 498 17 910 18 270 18 631 18 939 19 328 19 694 20 025 20 356 20 672 20 981

Consumption

kt pw

16 655

17 462 17 881 18 261 18 643 19 013 19 401 19 772 20 089 20 409 20 706 21 004

Stock changes

kt pw

4

–14

6

7

7

6

8

7

8

7

9

6

Pricef

USD/100 kg

188

271

248

238

229

222

223

224

225

226

227

229

a) Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand in OECD aggregate. b) Excludes Iceland but includes Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovenia. c) Do not balance due to statistical differences in New Zealand. d) Non-OECD net exports (imports) equals OECD net imports (exports). e) F.o.b. export price, butter, 82% butterfat, northern Europe. f) F.o.b. export price, cheddar cheese, 40 lb blocks, Northern Europe. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

118



ANNEX A

ANNEX A

Table A.11. World dairy projections (powders and casein) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

SKIM MILK POWDER OECDb, c Production

kt pw

2 921

2 817

2 782

2 756

2 701

2 633

2 570

2 544

2 539

2 531

2 513

2 510

Consumption

kt pw

2 020

2 328

2 186

2 098

2 030

1 964

1 902

1 872

1 856

1 849

1 836

1 814

Stock changes

kt pw

120

–374

–127

–49

–11

–6

–6

–6

–1

–1

–1

–1

NON-OECD Production

kt pw

573

582

582

590

600

615

629

648

666

685

709

730

Consumption

kt pw

1 337

1 409

1 421

1 427

1 445

1 465

1 483

1 507

1 530

1 554

1 581

1 608

Net traded

kt pw

–758

–832

–844

–841

–850

–855

–858

–865

–869

–873

–876

–884

WORLDc Production

kt pw

3 494

3 399

3 364

3 347

3 301

3 248

3 199

3 192

3 205

3 216

3 222

3 240

Consumption

kt pw

3 356

3 737

3 608

3 525

3 475

3 429

3 385

3 379

3 387

3 403

3 417

3 423

Stock changes

kt pw

115

–379

–133

–54

–15

–11

–11

–10

–6

–6

–6

–6

Pricee

USD/100 kg

165

203

200

198

192

195

197

198

199

199

200

200

WHOLE MILK POWDER OECDb Production

kt pw

1 838

1 970

1 982

2 024

2 036

2 057

2 086

2 107

2 129

2 153

2 176

2 202

Consumption

kt pw

786

822

807

807

805

801

801

797

795

796

797

797

NON-OECD Production

kt pw

1 423

1 641

1 726

1 720

1 743

1 793

1 845

1 903

1 972

2 045

2 132

2 213

Consumption

kt pw

2 270

2 784

2 896

2 933

2 968

3 043

3 125

3 208

3 300

3 397

3 507

3 613

Net traded

kt pw

–809

–873

–859

–916

–967

–983

–1 009 –1 039 –1 064 –1 098 –1 126 –1 158

WORLD Production

kt pw

3 261

3 611

3 708

3 744

3 779

3 850

3 930

4 010

4 100

4 198

4 309

4 415

Consumption

kt pw

3 056

3 606

3 703

3 739

3 774

3 844

3 925

4 005

4 095

4 193

4 304

4 411

Pricef

USD/100 kg

169

211

207

201

193

197

200

202

203

203

204

205

–224

–329

–315

–306

–301

–296

–292

–286

–279

–273

–265

–257

44

40

39

40

41

42

43

43

42

42

42

42

424

495

443

438

467

473

481

485

488

489

491

491

WHEY POWDER NON-OECD Net trade

kt pw

Wholesale price, USAg USD/100 kg CASEIN Priceh

USD/100 kg

a) Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand in OECD aggregate. b) Excludes Iceland but includes Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovenia. c) Do not balance due to statistical differences in New Zealand. d) Non-OECD net exports (imports) equal OECD net imports (exports). e) F.o.b. export price, non-fat dry milk, extra grade, Northern Europe. f) F.o.b. export price, WMP 26% butterfat, Northern Europe. g) Edible dry whey, Wisconsin, plant. h) Export price, New Zealand. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2005/2014 – ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – © OECD/FAO 2005


119

ANNEX A

Table A.12. OECD trade projectionsa Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

EXPORTS Wheatb

kt

75 255

78 946

80 232

81 379

82 990

84 723

86 079

87 769

88 712

89 731

90 163

90 648

Coarse grainsb

kt

76 599

73 896

75 355

80 441

80 471

80 256

82 001

84 505

87 185

88 953

90 237

92 109

Riceb

kt

Sugar

kt rse

Beefc

kt

4 952

3 613

4 281

4 653

4 923

5 079

5 119

5 068

5 061

5 116

5 160

5 194

Pig meatc

kt

3 188

4 263

4 125

4 155

4 179

4 229

4 270

4 395

4 526

4 620

4 669

4 778

Poultry meate

kt

2 077

1 979

1 999

1 957

1 930

1 895

1 844

1 827

1 815

1 817

1 810

1 807

Sheep meatc, e

kt

442

319

310

322

302

289

271

265

265

274

282

292

Butter

kt

678

817

722

732

734

717

714

714

719

722

726

732

Cheese

kt

1 141

1 193

1 211

1 263

1 293

1 327

1 354

1 374

1 392

1 415

1 435

1 459

Skim milk powder

kt

1 012

1 049

936

920

897

892

896

903

911

913

911

934

Whole milk powder

kt

1 151

1 243

1 269

1 308

1 319

1 341

1 368

1 390

1 411

1 432

1 452

1 475

Whey powdere

kt

224

329

315

306

301

296

292

286

279

273

265

257

Wheatb

kt

23 882

21 466

21 824

21 480

21 804

22 165

22 534

22 859

23 138

23 410

23 700

24 079

Coarse grainsb

kt

53 028

49 993

48 967

48 935

49 493

50 840

51 105

50 952

50 858

50 473

50 039

50 063

Riceb

kt

3 857

3 369

3 213

3 613

3 731

4 005

4 186

4 084

4 151

4 239

4 426

4 573

Oilseedsd

kt

1 623

1 646

2 343

807

831

1 214

1 584

2 116

2 413

2 724

2 664

2 313

Oilseed mealsd

kt

20 091

26 421

27 219

27 218

27 338

28 056

28 501

28 884

29 254

29 707

30 278

30 845

Vegetable oilsd

kt

2 459

4 033

4 101

4 297

4 236

4 370

4 497

4 604

4 693

4 813

4 978

5 198

Sugar

kt rse

8 951

9 201

9 356

9 243

9 302

9 498

10 380

10 489

10 800

11 007

11 286

11 728

4 141

4 170

4 361

4 622

4 751

4 819

4 856

4 891

4 950

5 017

5 063

5 112

11 242

9 502

10 813

10 467

10 292

10 165

9 044

9 087

9 120

9 173

9 211

9 256

IMPORTS

Beefc

kt

4 173

3 680

4 332

4 669

4 902

5 011

5 099

5 113

5 155

5 231

5 324

5 407

Pig meatc

kt

2 258

3 082

3 138

3 213

3 264

3 282

3 321

3 478

3 636

3 733

3 801

3 938

Butter

kt

179

197

193

196

200

204

210

216

219

222

224

227

Cheese

kt

734

796

811

828

848

870

889

905

923

939

954

970

Skim milk powder

kt

230

233

239

243

245

247

250

253

256

259

262

265

Whole milk powder

kt

98

95

93

91

88

85

83

80

78

75

73

71

a) Excludes Iceland but includes Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovenia. For meats, year are calendar year; for grains, meal and oil products, year are crop or marketing year; for dairy products, year are calendar year but year ends 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand in the OECD aggregate. b) Includes Turkish net exports for wheat, and Turkish net imports for coarse grains and rice. c) Includes trade of live animals. d) Net imports. e) Net exports. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

120



ANNEX A

Table A.13. Wheat projections Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

28.4

AUSTRALIA Production

mt

21.2

20.4

22.6

23.8

24.5

25.2

25.8

26.4

27.0

27.5

28.0

Consumption

mt

4.9

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

Exports

mt

15.4

19.6

18.6

18.1

19.1

19.9

20.5

21.0

21.5

21.9

22.3

22.6

Priceb

AUD/t

239

212

218

226

225

224

225

226

227

227

226

225

27.2

CANADA Production

mt

22.8

25.8

23.9

25.6

25.9

26.0

26.0

26.3

26.5

26.8

27.0

Consumption

mt

7.8

8.7

7.8

8.2

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.4

8.6

8.7

8.9

9.0

Exports

mt

15.3

16.0

16.7

16.3

17.6

17.7

17.7

17.9

18.0

18.1

18.1

18.2

Closing stocks

mt

7.2

7.2

6.6

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.9

7.9

Pricec

CAD/t

200

180

184

195

194

192

193

194

194

194

193

192

EU-25 Production

mt

116.7

133.7

127.7

128.6

129.9

130.9

130.7

132.0

132.3

133.2

133.4

133.6

EU-15

mt

97.2

110.0

105.8

106.8

108.0

108.8

108.4

109.2

109.2

109.8

109.9

110.1

EU-10

mt

19.5

23.7

21.9

21.8

21.8

22.1

22.3

22.8

23.1

23.3

23.4

23.4

Consumption

mt

110.4

115.5

116.4

117.0

118.0

119.2

119.9

120.6

121.0

121.5

122.0

122.5 101.1

EU-15

mt

91.6

95.9

97.0

97.5

98.2

99.1

99.6

100.0

100.2

100.5

100.8

EU-10

mt

18.7

19.6

19.4

19.5

19.7

20.1

20.3

20.5

20.7

21.0

21.2

21.5

Exportsd

mt

15.0

15.7

17.0

18.2

17.1

16.6

16.4

16.5

16.6

16.5

16.2

15.9

Closing stocks

mt

17.6

22.3

22.8

21.6

22.0

22.6

22.7

23.1

23.3

23.9

24.4

24.8

Pricee

EUR/t

117

104

103

104

104

104

104

104

105

105

104

104

0.8

JAPAN Production

mt

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Consumption

mt

6.4

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.2

Imports

mt

5.7

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

Closing stocks

mt

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Pricef

’000 JPY/t

22

25

25

26

26

25

24

24

23

23

22

22

5.0

KOREA Consumption

mt

3.6

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

Imports

mt

3.6

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.1

Priceg

’000 KRW/t

172

182

188

196

195

193

194

194

195

195

194

193

2.0

MEXICO Production

mt

3.1

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.1

Consumption

mt

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.3

6.5

6.6

6.8

7.1

Imports

mt

3.1

3.3

3.4

3.7

3.7

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.7

4.9

5.2

5.5

Priceh

MXN/t

1 339

1 324

1 359

1 409

1 512

1 544

1 574

1 639

1 684

1 743

1 780

1 822

NEW ZEALAND Production

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

Consumption

mt

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

Imports

mt

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Pricei

NZD/t

267

251

255

265

264

262

263

264

265

264

263

262

0.3

NORWAY Production

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Consumption

mt

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Net trade

mt

–0.2

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3



121

ANNEX A

Table A.13. Wheat projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

SWITZERLAND Production

mt

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Consumption

mt

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Net trade

mt

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

TURKEY Production

mt

19.4

20.5

20.3

20.4

20.5

20.7

20.9

21.2

21.5

21.8

22.1

22.4

Consumption

mt

19.7

20.7

20.8

20.9

21.1

21.4

21.7

22.1

22.5

22.8

23.1

23.4

Net trade

mt

0.0

0.0

–0.1

–0.6

–0.6

–0.8

–0.8

–1.0

–1.0

–1.1

–1.1

–1.1

UNITED STATES Production

mt

56.7

58.7

58.6

59.3

60.4

61.7

62.4

63.2

64.1

64.8

65.6

66.2

Consumption

mt

33.4

32.3

31.3

31.5

31.8

32.2

32.4

32.6

32.8

33.0

33.2

33.4

Imports

mt

2.4

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Exports

mt

27.9

27.2

27.5

29.0

29.3

30.9

31.9

32.9

33.3

33.9

34.2

34.6

Closing stocks

mt

19.8

15.9

17.4

18.2

19.4

20.0

19.9

19.6

19.6

19.5

19.7

19.8

Pricej

USD/t

109

123

126

131

131

130

130

131

131

131

130

130

20.0

ARGENTINA Production

mt

14.6

14.4

15.2

16.1

16.8

17.3

17.7

18.2

18.6

19.1

19.5

Consumption

mt

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

Exports

mt

9.2

9.0

9.7

10.7

11.3

11.7

12.1

12.5

12.9

13.4

13.8

14.2

Pricek

ARS/t

227

404

425

456

462

460

468

467

471

469

468

466

BRAZIL Production

mt

3.3

5.7

5.8

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.9

Consumption

mt

10.0

10.2

10.4

11.4

11.7

12.0

12.3

12.5

12.8

13.1

13.3

13.5

Net trade

mt

–6.6

–4.5

–4.7

–5.4

–5.8

–6.2

–6.6

–6.8

–7.1

–7.3

–7.5

–7.7

Price

BRL/t

299

429

446

484

509

522

536

557

577

596

613

630

CHINA Production

mt

96.8

89.8

87.3

87.0

88.6

89.6

90.3

90.5

90.7

91.2

91.9

92.3

Consumption

mt

107.6

101.4

100.5

96.7

96.5

97.7

98.6

99.1

99.3

99.3

99.0

98.6

Imports

mt

1.3

8.1

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.3

8.5

7.5

Closing stocks

mt

95.0

58.8

54.2

53.1

53.9

54.4

54.8

54.8

54.9

55.1

55.4

55.6

Pricel

CNY/t

753

854

871

961

957

911

887

875

868

866

867

867

INDIA Production

mt

70.9

72.7

77.4

77.1

79.0

81.1

82.6

84.1

85.8

87.3

88.9

90.5

Consumption

mt

69.8

71.8

75.6

76.5

78.3

80.3

82.0

83.7

85.3

87.0

88.7

90.4

Net trade

mt

3.0

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

RUSSIA Production

mt

39.4

44.5

44.2

44.4

45.4

45.6

45.7

46.1

46.6

47.1

47.7

48.2

Consumption

mt

36.7

36.9

36.7

36.8

37.1

37.8

38.3

38.7

39.1

39.6

40.2

40.8

Net trade

mt

2.4

5.1

7.2

7.5

8.0

7.6

7.2

7.1

7.3

7.3

7.3

7.2

Price

RUR/t

1 831

2 539

2 446

2 507

2 615

2 664

2 763

2 828

2 916

2 998

3 073

3 147

SOUTH AFRICA Production

mt

2.1

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Consumption

mt

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

Net trade

mt

–0.6

–0.6

–0.8

–1.0

–0.9

–0.9

–1.0

–1.0

–1.0

–1.1

–1.1

–1.2


122


ANNEX A

Table A.13. Wheat projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

OTHER EUROPE Production

mt

25.8

32.1

29.2

28.6

30.3

31.0

31.5

31.8

32.0

32.1

32.2

32.3

Consumption

mt

25.2

25.0

24.3

24.6

25.1

25.6

26.0

26.6

26.9

27.4

27.9

28.4

Net trade

mt

1.1

4.1

4.4

4.0

4.8

5.3

5.4

5.2

5.0

4.6

4.3

3.9

OTHER AFRICA Production

mt

15.1

19.5

18.7

19.0

19.5

20.1

20.7

21.3

21.8

22.4

22.9

23.5

Consumption

mt

40.7

43.4

43.5

44.3

45.8

47.2

48.5

49.7

51.0

52.1

53.3

54.6

Net trade

mt

–25.0

–24.1

–24.3

–25.2

–26.6

–27.6

–28.3

–28.8

–29.5

–29.9

–30.5

–31.2

OTHER ASIA Production

mt

65.5

73.7

74.1

75.7

77.1

78.4

79.8

81.3

83.0

84.6

86.4

88.1

Consumption

mt

91.8

97.2

97.2

98.4

100.2

102.2

103.8

105.6

107.5

109.4

111.2

113.1

Net trade

mt

–25.9

–21.9

–23.1

–23.3

–24.6

–24.9

–24.8

–25.2

–25.3

–25.6

–25.5

–25.5

OTHER LATIN AMERICA Production

mt

2.7

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

Consumption

mt

11.3

11.7

11.9

12.0

12.2

12.4

12.5

12.6

12.7

12.9

13.0

13.1

Net trade

mt

–8.6

–8.7

–8.8

–8.9

–9.0

–9.0

–9.1

–9.2

–9.2

–9.3

–9.3

–9.4

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) AWB net pool return, ASW 10. c) CWB final producer price, No. 1 Canada Western Red Spring, in store Thunder Bay or Vancouver. From 1995 in store St. Lawrence or Vancouver. d) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. e) Weighted average producer price, common and durum wheat, year ended 31 December. f) Average import price c.i.f., all wheat, year ended 31 December. g) Import price. h) Average producer price. i) Indicative wheat price. j) Average price received by farmers. k) Export price f.o.b., Argentinean ports. l) Free market price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



123

ANNEX A

Table A.14. Coarse grains projections Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

10.7

10.4

11.1

11.3

11.5

11.7

11.9

12.2

12.4

12.7

12.9

13.2

Consumption

mt

5.8

6.2

6.3

6.2

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.8

Exports

mt

5.0

3.9

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.3

5.5

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

Priceb

AUD/t

205

190

185

192

193

193

194

195

195

195

195

195

CANADA Production

mt

23.9

26.4

25.1

26.4

26.5

26.7

26.9

27.2

27.5

28.0

28.2

28.6

Consumption

mt

23.1

24.0

25.4

25.1

25.1

25.1

25.1

25.5

26.2

26.7

26.9

27.3

Exports

mt

3.9

4.5

2.4

3.7

3.5

4.0

4.2

4.2

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.9

Closing stocks

mt

4.1

4.2

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.6

Pricec

CAD/t

158

163

149

158

160

160

161

162

163

163

163

163

EU-25 Production

mt

134.3

147.4

140.7

143.9

144.6

144.8

144.2

145.2

145.6

145.4

145.3

145.0

EU-15

mt

103.3

110.3

105.6

108.3

109.2

109.2

108.8

109.5

109.9

109.7

109.5

109.3

EU-10

mt

30.9

37.1

35.1

35.6

35.4

35.6

35.4

35.6

35.7

35.7

35.7

35.7

Consumption

mt

126.7

132.4

134.0

134.8

135.3

135.8

135.9

135.7

135.8

135.7

135.6

135.5 98.0

EU-15

mt

96.0

100.3

100.3

100.4

100.4

100.1

99.8

99.2

99.0

98.7

98.3

EU-10

mt

30.6

32.1

33.8

34.4

34.8

35.7

36.1

36.5

36.8

37.0

37.2

37.5

Exportsd

mt

13.8

11.5

11.9

12.1

12.8

12.8

12.6

12.9

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

Closing stocks

mt

27.3

32.6

31.0

31.8

31.9

32.2

31.7

31.9

32.4

32.5

32.6

32.5

Pricee

EUR/t

107

101

100

100

100

99

100

99

99

99

99

99

JAPAN Production

mt

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

Consumption

mt

21.1

21.4

21.2

21.1

20.9

20.9

20.9

20.9

20.9

20.8

20.7

20.7 20.3

Imports

mt

21.2

21.2

21.0

20.5

20.3

20.5

20.5

20.5

20.4

20.3

20.3

Closing stocks

mt

9.8

10.4

10.4

10.1

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.3

9.1

8.9

8.8

8.7

Pricef

'000 JPY/t

14.3

19.4

19.4

20.7

21.3

21.4

21.1

20.9

20.8

20.5

20.1

19.7

KOREA Production

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Consumption

mt

9.5

10.2

10.1

10.2

10.2

10.2

10.3

10.3

10.4

10.4

10.5

10.6 10.3

Imports

mt

9.4

10.0

9.8

9.9

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.1

10.1

10.2

Closing stocks

mt

1.3

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Priceg

'000 KRW/t

152.9

138.9

146.2

153.1

154.4

154.6

154.8

155.8

156.2

156.5

156.2

156.2

29.8

MEXICO Production

mt

25.9

25.6

26.2

26.5

26.6

27.0

27.4

27.7

28.2

28.7

29.2

Consumption

mt

36.4

36.2

36.8

37.0

37.8

38.5

39.2

39.6

40.0

40.3

40.4

41.0

Imports

mt

10.5

10.6

10.6

10.6

11.1

11.6

11.9

12.0

11.8

11.6

11.3

11.2

Priceh

MXN/t

1 496

1 755

1 771

1 801

1 833

1 875

1 888

1 914

1 950

1 984

2 008

2 028


kt

576.6

560.3

533.3

535.3

537.3

544.5

541.3

542.0

542.6

544.6

546.7

548.8

Consumption

kt

691.9

703.2

668.8

671.0

669.0

674.0

666.4

662.9

660.7

661.1

662.0

665.6

Imports

kt

114.7

143.0

135.7

135.2

132.1

130.3

125.3

120.8

118.1

116.6

115.5

116.9

Pricei

NZD/t

240

246

236

245

247

247

247

249

249

250

249

250

1.1

NORWAY Production

mt

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

Consumption

mt

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Net trade

mt

–0.1

–0.1

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2


124


ANNEX A

Table A.14. Coarse grains projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Consumption

mt

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Net trade

mt

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

TURKEY Production

mt

10.6

11.3

11.1

11.0

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.9

12.1

12.2

12.3

12.4

Consumption

mt

11.5

12.2

12.0

11.7

11.7

11.9

12.2

12.4

12.7

12.9

13.2

13.4

Net trade

mt

–0.8

–0.9

–0.9

–0.9

–0.6

–0.6

–0.5

–0.5

–0.6

–0.7

–0.8

–0.9


mt

263.4

318.7

291.1

294.4

299.7

303.3

307.5

311.9

316.1

320.3

324.1

327.4

Consumption

mt

216.7

240.5

239.7

240.5

244.1

248.2

251.2

254.0

255.8

258.0

260.7

262.7

Exports

mt

53.5

53.8

56.2

59.6

58.8

58.0

59.7

61.8

64.3

65.8

66.9

68.5

Closing stocks

mt

41.3

55.2

52.6

49.2

48.2

47.5

46.4

44.8

43.1

41.9

40.8

39.3

Pricej

USD/t

82

76

82

87

88

88

89

89

90

90

90

90


mt

19.1

17.4

18.0

19.1

20.4

21.3

22.0

22.7

23.4

24.1

24.7

25.4

Consumption

mt

8.5

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

9.0

9.3

9.5

9.6

9.8

10.0

Exports

mt

10.6

9.0

9.5

10.5

11.7

12.5

13.0

13.3

13.9

14.4

14.9

15.3

Closing stocks

mt

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Pricek

ARS/t

173

304

322

341

346

345

346

349

354

355

360

361

BRAZIL Production

mt

39.6

49.0

47.1

47.6

49.0

50.9

52.3

53.5

54.7

55.9

57.3

58.3

Consumption

mt

40.5

47.0

48.2

49.2

50.5

52.1

53.7

55.3

56.8

57.8

58.4

58.9

Net trade

mt

–0.9

–0.5

–1.1

–1.6

–1.5

–1.2

–1.4

–1.8

–2.1

–1.9

–1.1

–0.6

Closing stocks

mt

4.0

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

CHINA Production

mt

125.8

134.7

138.2

141.1

144.6

146.9

149.1

150.6

152.2

154.5

157.0

159.5

Consumption

mt

133.9

143.9

145.2

147.9

150.8

152.1

154.1

156.3

158.0

160.1

162.1

164.3

Imports

mt

2.0

2.2

3.5

5.8

7.2

6.8

7.2

7.4

7.2

7.3

6.8

6.6

Closing stocks

mt

84.3

32.6

26.1

22.9

21.8

21.5

21.8

21.9

21.6

21.9

22.3

22.7

Pricel

CNY/t

1 187

1 236

1 310

1 363

1 358

1 357

1 380

1 408

1 429

1 445

1 453

1 452

INDIA Production

mt

31.2

33.4

34.0

34.0

34.5

35.2

35.6

36.0

36.5

37.0

37.4

37.9

Consumption

mt

31.1

32.7

33.3

33.4

33.8

34.5

35.0

35.4

35.8

36.3

36.8

37.2

Net trade

mt

0.0

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

31.3

RUSSIA Production

mt

29.8

30.3

29.8

30.4

29.7

30.0

30.4

30.6

30.8

30.9

31.1

Consumption

mt

28.8

29.0

30.0

30.5

30.8

31.0

31.4

31.7

32.0

32.3

32.6

32.7

Net trade

mt

0.9

0.9

–0.2

–0.1

–1.1

–1.0

–1.0

–1.0

–1.2

–1.3

–1.4

–1.4

Pricem

RUR/t

1 511

1 929

1 802

1 796

1 887

1 939

2 020

2 067

2 134

2 198

2 261

2 323


mt

9.6

10.4

9.5

9.3

9.8

9.9

10.0

10.1

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.7

Consumption

mt

8.9

9.3

9.8

9.5

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.7

9.7

9.8

9.8

9.9

Net trade

mt

0.4

1.0

–0.1

0.0

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9



125

ANNEX A

Table A.14. Coarse grains projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

35.9

42.1

39.1

40.4

42.2

43.6

44.4

45.3

46.1

47.0

47.8

48.6

Consumption

mt

33.6

36.2

35.0

34.8

35.0

35.5

36.2

36.9

37.7

38.4

39.3

40.1

Net trade

mt

2.8

5.0

4.7

5.4

6.8

7.8

8.1

8.2

8.2

8.4

8.4

8.4


mt

73.8

79.3

79.4

81.0

83.6

86.0

88.3

90.7

92.9

95.2

97.5

99.8

Consumption

mt

86.9

92.5

93.0

94.8

97.4

100.4

103.5

106.6

109.7

112.8

116.1

119.4

Net trade

mt

–12.8

–12.8

–11.5

–13.7

–13.9

–14.5

–15.3

–16.0

–17.0

–17.7

–18.8

–19.7


mt

44.8

49.9

49.1

50.1

51.7

53.4

54.7

55.8

56.7

57.7

58.8

59.9

Consumption

mt

68.0

73.1

73.1

74.0

75.6

77.6

79.9

82.3

84.9

87.3

90.0

92.7

Net trade

mt

–23.5

–23.2

–22.6

–23.6

–24.1

–24.5

–25.5

–26.7

–28.4

–29.9

–31.5

–33.0


mt

12.8

13.7

14.5

15.2

15.6

16.2

16.6

16.9

17.2

17.5

17.8

18.0

Consumption

mt

20.9

22.3

22.6

23.1

23.5

24.1

24.7

25.3

25.9

26.5

27.1

27.8

Net trade

mt

–8.0

–8.4

–7.8

–8.0

–7.9

–8.0

–8.1

–8.4

–8.7

–9.1

–9.4

–9.8

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Cash price, bulk feed barley, Sydney. c) CWB final price, No. 1 CW barley, St. Lawrence since 1995, Thunder Bay before. d) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. e) Weighted average producer price, barley, year ended 31 December. f) Farm gate price. g) Average import price c.i.f., maize, year ended 31 December. h) Average producer price, maize. i) Indicative price, feed barley. j) Maize average producer price. k) Export price, f.o.b., Argentinean Ports. l) Maize free market price. m) Barley average producer price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

126



ANNEX A

Table A.15. Rice projections Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

Consumption

mt

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

Exports

mt

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

Priceb

AUD/t

235

225

232

233

235

238

242

247

252

256

259

262

1.6

EU-25 Production

mt

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

EU-15

mt

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

EU-10

mt

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Consumption

mt

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

EU-15

mt

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

EU-10

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Net trade

mt

–0.8

–0.8

–0.5

–0.8

–0.9

–1.1

–1.2

–1.0

–1.0

–1.0

–1.1

–1.1

Closing stocks

mt

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

Pricec

EUR/t

283

143

143

143

143

143

143

143

143

143

143

143

Priced

EUR/t

..

216

216

216

200

158

132

135

139

141

144

146

JAPAN Production

mt

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.0

8.0

7.9

Consumption

mt

9.7

9.3

9.2

9.2

9.1

9.0

8.9

8.9

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.6

Imports

mt

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Closing stocks

mt

3.9

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

Pricee

'000 JPY/t

248

296

299

299

297

295

295

293

292

290

288

286

KOREA Production

mt

5.1

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

Consumption

mt

5.2

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

Imports

mt

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

Closing stocks

mt

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.2

Pricef

'000 KRW/t

2 055

2 125

2 113

2 110

2 110

2 109

2 107

2 104

2 098

2 090

2 079

2 065

MEXICO Production

mt

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Consumption

mt

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

Imports

mt

Priceb

MXN/t

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

1 605

1 579

1 603

1 645

1 634

1 605

1 599

1 606

1 609

1 616

1 615

1 613

0.0


mt

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Consumption

mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Net trade

mt

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

0.3

TURKEY Production

mt

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Consumption

mt

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Net trade

mt

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

7.8


mt

6.5

7.3

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

Consumption

mt

3.7

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

Exports

mt

3.1

3.3

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

Closing stocks

mt

0.9

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

Priceb

USD/t

122

163

169

174

179

183

193

200

207

213

217

222



127

ANNEX A

Table A.15. Rice projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

Consumption

mt

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Exports

mt

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

Closing stocks

mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Priceg

ARS/t

329

482

532

552

556

551

558

558

567

565

564

562

BRAZIL Production

mt

7.2

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.7

Consumption

mt

7.8

7.0

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.5

Net trade

mt

–0.6

–0.8

–0.9

–1.0

–1.0

–1.1

–1.0

–1.0

–0.9

–0.8

–0.8

–0.7

Closing stocks

mt

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

CHINA Production

mt

125.9

126.4

132.9

135.1

135.8

135.8

135.3

135.4

135.7

136.1

136.4

136.4

Consumption

mt

134.6

135.4

135.4

134.9

135.2

135.4

135.1

135.1

135.4

135.7

136.1

136.2

of which: Feed

mt

27.2

20.5

20.1

19.4

19.3

19.2

18.9

18.6

18.3

18.0

17.7

17.4

Imports

mt

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

Closing stocks

mt

77.3

35.1

32.3

32.4

33.0

33.3

33.5

33.8

34.0

34.4

34.8

35.1

Priceh

CNY/t

2 161

2 867

2 976

3 016

3 046

3 025

3 140

3 295

3 443

3 609

3 758

3 863

INDIA Production

mt

85.5

84.9

86.6

91.2

92.0

92.7

94.5

96.4

97.9

99.4

101.0

102.6

Consumption

mt

83.7

85.0

84.7

87.9

89.5

90.4

91.5

92.8

93.9

95.0

96.0

97.0

Closing stocks

mt

20.1

10.5

10.8

12.2

12.6

12.2

12.2

12.2

12.2

12.1

12.0

11.9

Pricei

INR/t

5 808

5 824

6 648

6 141

6 104

6 242

6 301

6 331

6 367

6 423

6 486

6 542

0.3

RUSSIA Production

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Consumption

mt

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Net trade

mt

–0.3

–0.4

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

0.0


mt

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Consumption

mt

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

Net trade

mt

–0.6

–0.8

–0.8

–0.9

–0.9

–0.9

–1.0

–1.0

–1.0

–1.1

–1.1

–1.1


128


ANNEX A

Table A.15. Rice projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Consumption

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Net trade

mt

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2


mt

11.5

12.1

13.0

13.8

14.1

14.4

14.7

15.1

15.4

15.8

16.1

16.5

Consumption

mt

18.2

19.0

19.7

20.4

21.2

21.8

22.5

23.2

23.9

24.6

25.3

26.0

Net trade

mt

–6.6

–6.7

–6.8

–6.7

–7.1

–7.4

–7.8

–8.1

–8.5

–8.8

–9.2

–9.6


mt

138.5

146.7

151.1

154.2

155.7

157.8

160.4

162.7

164.3

166.0

167.7

169.6

Consumption

mt

135.0

143.1

144.2

146.5

149.2

151.6

153.6

155.9

158.0

159.8

161.7

163.5

Net trade

mt

2.4

6.0

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.5

6.3

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.8


mt

7.1

7.4

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.1

9.2

9.4

Consumption

mt

7.6

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.3

9.5

9.7

9.9

Net trade

mt

–0.5

–0.4

–0.5

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.4

–0.5

–0.5

–0.6

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Producer price. c) Producer price, paddy rice. d) Market price (consumers), paddy equivalent. e) Market price, husked rice. f) Producer price, native king, polished grade b. g) Export price. h) Free market price, weighted average of japonica and indica. i) Farm harvest price, rough basis. j) Paddy, farm harvest price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



129

ANNEX A

ANNEX A

Table A.16. Oilseed projections Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

Consumption

mt

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Crush

mt

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Exports

mt

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

Priceb

AUD/t

390

375

360

366

369

377

380

385

387

391

393

397

CANADA Production

mt

8.9

10.7

10.6

10.3

10.6

10.8

11.3

11.5

11.8

12.0

12.3

12.5

Consumption

mt

5.5

5.7

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.6

6.7

6.9

7.0

7.2

Crush

mt

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.5

Exports

mt

4.2

4.1

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

Pricec

CAD/t

347

313

294

300

303

311

314

318

321

324

327

330

EU-25 Production

mt

17.1

19.0

17.1

16.7

17.6

18.2

19.2

19.1

19.4

19.6

20.0

20.4

EU-15

mt

13.7

15.1

12.8

12.4

13.2

13.8

14.8

14.7

14.9

15.1

15.4

15.7

EU-10

mt

3.4

3.9

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.6

Consumption

mt

35.3

37.7

37.7

38.3

39.0

39.3

40.1

40.9

41.8

42.6

43.4

44.2

EU-15

mt

31.9

34.0

34.1

34.7

35.3

35.6

36.3

37.1

37.8

38.6

39.3

40.0

EU-10

mt

3.4

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.1

Crush

mt

32.6

34.3

34.1

34.7

35.4

35.6

36.3

37.2

38.0

38.7

39.5

40.2 –24.1

Net traded

mt

–18.1

–20.4

–20.7

–21.3

–21.3

–21.1

–21.2

–22.1

–22.8

–23.3

–23.7

Closing stocks

mt

5.4

6.5

6.6

6.2

6.1

6.0

6.3

6.6

6.9

7.2

7.6

7.8

Pricee

EUR/t

235

168

162

166

167

171

174

176

178

180

182

185

0.3

JAPANf Production

mt

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Consumption

mt

7.4

7.8

8.0

8.0

8.1

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

Crush

mt

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

Imports

mt

7.2

7.5

7.7

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.2

Closing stocks

mt

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Priceg

’000 JPY/t

30

46

36

36

37

38

39

39

40

41

41

42

KOREA Production

mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Consumption

mt

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

Crush

mt

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Imports

mt

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

Priceh

'000 KRW/t

2 792

2 621

2 696

2 771

2 856

2 941

3 025

3 113

3 202

3 292

3 384

3 479

MEXICO Production

mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Consumption

mt

5.3

5.5

5.8

5.8

6.1

6.2

6.4

6.5

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.3

Crush

mt

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.2

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.8

6.0

Imports

mt

5.2

5.4

5.7

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.1

Pricei

MXN/t

2 229

2 476

2 407

2 459

2 445

2 480

2 492

2 517

2 512

2 519

2 519

2 527

NORWAY Production

mt

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Consumption

mt

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Crush

mt

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Net trade

mt

–0.4

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.5

–0.6

–0.6


130


ANNEX A

Table A.16. Oilseed projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Consumption

mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Crush

mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Net trade

mt

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

0.5

TURKEY Production

mt

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Consumption

mt

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.9

Crush

mt

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

Net trade

mt

–0.8

–0.7

–0.8

–0.9

–1.0

–1.0

–1.1

–1.1

–1.1

–1.2

–1.3

–1.3


mt

75.8

87.0

80.8

81.6

83.9

84.6

85.5

86.6

87.9

88.8

90.1

91.3

Consumption

mt

50.1

49.1

51.3

52.4

53.7

54.5

55.3

55.8

56.5

57.2

57.8

58.3

Crush

mt

45.3

45.4

47.6

48.7

50.0

50.8

51.6

52.1

52.8

53.5

54.1

54.6

Exports

mt

27.4

30.5

29.7

32.1

32.2

31.9

31.4

31.7

32.1

32.3

32.8

33.5

Closing stocks

mt

5.9

11.3

11.6

9.2

7.8

6.6

6.0

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

Pricej

USD/t

194

190

186

193

195

201

205

211

214

218

222

226

56.0


mt

33.4

39.3

40.4

41.9

43.6

45.3

47.1

48.9

50.7

52.4

54.3

Consumption

mt

25.5

29.9

30.7

31.4

32.5

33.2

34.0

34.8

35.7

36.6

37.4

38.2

Crush

mt

24.8

29.3

30.0

30.7

31.7

32.4

33.2

34.0

34.9

35.7

36.5

37.3

Exports

mt

8.0

9.7

9.9

10.9

11.4

12.5

13.6

14.5

15.4

16.3

17.3

18.3

Closing stocks

mt

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Price (soyabeans)k

ARS/t

360

637

632

668

674

690

693

699

695

696

693

694

Price (sunflower)k

ARS/t

397

776

768

798

796

802

798

792

780

772

763

756

79.6

BRAZIL Production

mt

39.2

57.0

59.7

60.0

62.8

64.9

67.1

69.7

72.4

75.0

77.4

Consumption

mt

25.2

33.5

34.4

35.4

36.4

37.4

38.4

39.4

40.3

41.4

42.4

43.4

Crush

mt

24.6

32.8

33.7

34.6

35.6

36.6

37.6

38.6

39.5

40.6

41.5

42.5

Net trade

mt

13.6

23.4

24.9

24.8

26.3

27.4

28.6

30.2

31.8

33.5

34.9

36.1

Closing stocks

mt

2.7

4.0

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

30.7

CHINA Production

mt

28.1

30.2

30.0

29.6

29.7

29.9

30.2

30.4

30.5

30.6

30.6

Consumption

mt

43.7

51.3

53.9

55.7

57.5

59.6

62.0

64.3

66.9

69.4

72.1

75.0

Crush

mt

33.7

40.2

42.5

44.0

45.6

47.5

49.7

51.8

54.2

56.5

59.0

61.7

Exports

mt

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Imports

mt

15.9

23.4

24.2

26.2

28.1

30.0

32.1

34.2

36.7

39.0

41.7

44.5

Pricel

CNY/t

2 352

2 286

2 180

2 187

2 200

2 231

2 296

2 353

2 390

2 434

2 476

2 523

INDIA Production

mt

11.1

13.1

15.0

15.4

16.0

16.5

16.9

17.4

17.8

18.3

18.9

19.5

Consumption

mt

11.0

12.9

14.9

15.4

15.9

16.5

16.9

17.3

17.8

18.2

18.6

19.0

Crush

mt

10.1

11.9

13.9

14.4

14.9

15.4

15.8

16.3

16.7

17.1

17.5

18.0

Net trade

mt

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

6.0

RUSSIA Production

mt

4.4

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

Consumption

mt

3.9

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.8

Crush

mt

3.6

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.6

Net trade

mt

–0.2

–0.2

–0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Priceb

RUR/t

0.4

0.0

–0.1

–0.1

8 301

9 180

8 964

8 971

9 629 10 465 11 486 11 978 12 398 12 824 13 181 13 531



131

ANNEX A

Table A.16. Oilseed projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

Consumption

mt

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

Crush

mt

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

Net trade

mt

0.0

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.2

–0.2

–0.2

6.7


mt

5.6

6.1

6.7

6.3

6.3

6.2

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

Consumption

mt

4.6

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

Crush

mt

3.7

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.1

Net trade

mt

0.9

0.5

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4


mt

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

Consumption

mt

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.2

Crush

mt

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.7

Net trade

mt

–0.7

–0.8

–0.8

–0.9

–0.9

–0.9

–1.0

–1.0

–1.0

–1.1

–1.1

–1.1


mt

3.7

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

Consumption

mt

12.1

13.1

13.3

13.4

13.5

13.7

13.8

13.9

14.0

14.1

14.2

14.2

Crush

mt

6.3

7.0

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.7

7.7

Net trade

mt

–8.5

–9.2

–9.4

–9.5

–9.6

–9.6

–9.6

–9.6

–9.6

–9.6

–9.6

–9.5


mt

5.6

6.9

6.3

6.6

7.0

7.3

7.6

8.0

8.3

8.6

9.0

9.4

Consumption

mt

4.4

5.0

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

6.0

6.2

6.5

6.8

7.2

7.5

Crush

mt

3.3

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.1

5.4

5.7

Net trade

mt

1.2

1.8

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Producer price, rapeseed. c) Canola price, stored in Vancouver. d) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. e) Import price, rapeseed c.i.f. Hamburg. f) Excludes sunflower seed. g) Import price c.i.f., soyabeans, year ended 31 December. h) Producer price, soyabeans. i) Average producer price, soyabeans. j) Average price received by farmers, soyabeans. k) Export price, f.o.b., Argentinean Ports. l) Soyabean free market price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

132



ANNEX A

Table A.17. Oilseed meal projections Average 99/0003/04

Marketing yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

Consumption

mt

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Imports

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Priceb

AUD/t

299

223

207

208

209

210

212

214

215

215

216

217

3.8

CANADA Production

mt

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

Consumption

mt

2.9

2.8

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

Imports

mt

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Exports

mt

1.2

1.2

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

Pricec

CAD/t

208

180

168

174

173

175

178

182

184

186

188

191

EU-25 Production

mt

21.9

22.3

22.2

22.6

23.1

23.2

23.7

24.2

24.8

25.3

25.8

26.2

EU-15

mt

20.3

20.6

20.5

20.9

21.3

21.5

21.9

22.4

22.9

23.4

23.9

24.3

EU-10

mt

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

Consumption

mt

42.8

46.6

47.8

48.3

49.2

50.1

51.1

51.8

52.7

53.6

54.6

55.5

EU-15

mt

38.8

42.3

43.4

43.9

44.7

45.5

46.3

46.9

47.6

48.4

49.2

50.0

EU-10

mt

4.0

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.4

5.6

Net traded

mt

–20.9

–24.3

–25.4

–25.7

–26.2

–26.9

–27.4

–27.6

–28.0

–28.4

–28.8

–29.3

Closing stocks

mt

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

JAPANe Production

mt

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

Consumption

mt

5.5

5.7

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

Imports

mt

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Pricef

’000 JPY/t

27

38

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

1.2

KOREA Production

mt

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Consumption

mt

2.8

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

Imports

mt

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

4.3

MEXICO Production

mt

3.4

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.0

4.1

4.2

Consumption

mt

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.8

5.0

5.1

5.2

Imports

mt

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Priceg

MXN/t

2 055

2 028

1 978

2 043

2 047

2 083

2 121

2 160

2 172

2 195

2 210

2 238

NORWAY Production

mt

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Consumption

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

Net trade

mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0


mt

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Consumption

mt

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Net trade

mt

–0.2

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

TURKEY Production

mt

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

Consumption

mt

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

Net trade

mt

–0.6

–1.0

–1.1

–1.0

–1.1

–1.1

–1.1

–1.1

–1.2

–1.2

–1.2

–1.2



133

ANNEX A

Table A.17. Oilseed meal projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Marketing yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

35.6

35.7

37.4

38.3

39.3

39.9

40.6

41.0

41.5

42.1

42.5

42.9

Consumption

mt

30.8

32.5

33.6

33.9

34.6

35.3

35.9

36.5

37.0

37.5

38.1

38.6

Imports

mt

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Exports

mt

6.0

4.4

5.0

5.4

5.8

5.9

6.1

5.9

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.0

Priceh

USD/t

209

179

173

179

179

182

186

189

190

192

193

196

Production

mt

18.3

22.2

22.7

23.2

23.9

24.5

25.1

25.7

26.4

27.0

27.6

28.2

Consumption

mt

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

Exports

mt

17.6

21.3

21.7

22.3

22.8

23.4

23.9

24.5

25.0

25.7

26.2

26.7

ARGENTINA

Closing stocks

mt

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Price (soy meal)i

ARS/t

279

463

456

491

492

499

506

517

516

520

522

527

Price (sun meal)i

ARS/t

151

330

287

304

299

300

301

306

297

293

288

286

32.0

BRAZIL Production

mt

18.5

24.7

25.3

26.0

26.7

27.5

28.2

29.0

29.7

30.5

31.2

Consumption

mt

7.3

9

9

9

10

10

10

11

11

11

12

12

Net trade

mt

11.4

16

16

17

17

18

18

18

19

19

20

20

CHINA Production

mt

24.6

29.7

31.6

32.8

34.1

35.6

37.2

38.9

40.7

42.5

44.5

46.5

Consumption

mt

23.9

28.7

30.8

32.6

34.3

35.6

37.2

38.9

40.6

42.2

43.8

45.4

Net trade

mt

0.8

1.1

0.8

0.2

–0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.7

1.1

Pricej

CNY/t

1 655

1 330

1 229

1 240

1 240

1 249

1 305

1 356

1 383

1 419

1 454

1 496

INDIA Production

mt

7.2

8.4

9.8

10.1

10.5

10.9

11.2

11.5

11.8

12.1

12.4

12.7

Consumption

mt

4.3

4.5

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.4

6.7

6.9

Net trade

mt

2.9

3.8

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

RUSSIA Production

mt

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

Consumption

mt

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

Net trade

mt

Price

RUR/t

–0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

–0.1

–0.1

–0.1

–0.2

–0.2

–0.3

–0.3

–0.3

4 447

5 180

4 902

5 109

5 213

5 436

5 687

5 952

6 156

6 403

6 649

6 935

0.6


mt

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Consumption

mt

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

Net trade

mt

–0.5

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.7

–0.7

–0.7

–0.7

–0.8

–0.8

–0.8


134


ANNEX A

Table A.17. Oilseed meal projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Marketing yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

1.6

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

Consumption

mt

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

Net trade

mt

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3


mt

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

Consumption

mt

2.6

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.2

4.3

4.4

Net trade

mt

–1.8

–2.3

–2.5

–2.6

–2.6

–2.7

–2.8

–2.8

–2.9

–3.0

–3.1

–3.1


mt

4.5

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

Consumption

mt

13.0

15.6

16.3

16.7

17.2

17.6

18.1

18.6

19.2

19.8

20.4

21.0

Net trade

mt

–8.6

–10.8

–11.2

–11.5

–11.9

–12.3

–12.8

–13.2

–13.8

–14.4

–14.9

–15.5


mt

2.8

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

5.0

Consumption

mt

4.8

5.6

5.9

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.1

7.3

7.6

7.9

8.2

Net trade

mt

–1.9

–2.5

–2.7

–2.8

–2.9

–2.9

–3.0

–3.0

–3.1

–3.1

–3.1

–3.2

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Average import price c.i.f., soyabean and other oilseed meals, year beginning 1 July. c) Canola meal price, f.o.b. Vancouver (prior 2002, f.o.b plant). d) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. e) Excludes sunflower seed. f) Average import price c.i.f., soyabean cake, year ended 31 December. g) Calculated import price of soyabean meal. h) Wholesale price, soyabean meal, 48% solvent, Decatur. i) Export price, f.o.b., Argentinean Ports. j) Calculated import price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



135

ANNEX A

Table A.18. Vegetable oil projections Average 99/0003/04

Marketing yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

0.18

0.14

0.16

0.17

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.19

0.20

0.21

0.21

0.22

Consumption

mt

0.27

0.20

0.22

0.23

0.23

0.23

0.24

0.24

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.26

Imports

mt

0.13

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.11

0.11

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.09

0.09

Priceb

AUD/t

322

232

213

215

220

226

229

233

237

241

244

248

1.90

CANADA Production

mt

1.45

1.45

1.51

1.58

1.61

1.64

1.67

1.71

1.76

1.80

1.86

Consumption

mt

0.88

0.87

0.84

0.83

0.84

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.91

0.92

0.93

Imports

mt

0.16

0.06

0.05

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

Exports

mt

0.74

0.66

0.72

0.77

0.79

0.80

0.83

0.85

0.88

0.92

0.96

1.00

Pricec

CAD/t

639

539

512

519

533

552

559

568

579

589

598

606

EU-25 Production

mt

9.26

9.59

9.53

9.69

9.86

9.94

10.13

10.36

10.58

10.79

11.01

11.21

EU-15

mt

8.37

8.63

8.60

8.77

8.94

9.00

9.18

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.19

EU-10

mt

0.89

0.96

0.93

0.91

0.92

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.01

1.03

Consumption

mt

10.78

12.05

12.23

12.52

12.72

12.93

13.18

13.42

13.67

13.93

14.21

14.50 12.76

EU-15

mt

9.62

10.66

10.76

11.01

11.18

11.36

11.57

11.78

12.01

12.24

12.49

EU-10

mt

1.16

1.39

1.47

1.51

1.54

1.57

1.61

1.64

1.66

1.69

1.72

1.75

Net traded

mt

–1.49

–2.47

–2.66

–2.83

–2.86

–2.99

–3.06

–3.06

–3.10

–3.14

–3.21

–3.30

Closing stocks

mt

0.75

0.72

0.68

0.68

0.68

0.68

0.70

0.70

0.71

0.72

0.72

0.73

JAPANe Production

mt

1.61

1.64

1.67

1.69

1.70

1.69

1.68

1.66

1.64

1.62

1.59

1.56

Consumption

mt

2.02

2.13

2.17

2.21

2.23

2.24

2.25

2.27

2.28

2.30

2.31

2.32

Imports

mt

0.41

0.51

0.52

0.53

0.53

0.55

0.58

0.61

0.65

0.68

0.72

0.76

Closing stocks

mt

0.22

0.28

0.30

0.30

0.30

0.30

0.31

0.31

0.31

0.32

0.32

0.32

Pricef

’000 JPY/t

61

70

67

67

68

69

71

72

73

74

75

76

KOREA Production

mt

0.23

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.27

0.28

0.28

0.28

0.28

0.29

Consumption

mt

0.45

0.47

0.49

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.51

0.52

0.52

0.53

0.54

0.54

Imports

mt

0.22

0.21

0.23

0.24

0.24

0.24

0.25

0.26

0.26

0.27

0.27

0.28

Pricef

’000 KRW/t

540

613

599

607

623

645

653

664

676

689

699

708

1.28

MEXICO Production

mt

0.93

0.95

0.97

0.98

1.02

1.06

1.10

1.13

1.17

1.21

1.24

Consumption

mt

1.42

1.47

1.63

1.70

1.73

1.77

1.83

1.88

1.92

1.97

2.03

2.09

Imports

mt

0.52

0.57

0.72

0.77

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.80

0.81

0.82

0.84

0.87

0.11

NORWAY Production

mt

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.11

0.11

Consumption

mt

0.09

0.10

0.10

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.12

0.12

0.12

Net trade

mt

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

–0.01

0.04


mt

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

Consumption

mt

0.12

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

Net trade

mt

–0.08

–0.09

–0.09

–0.09

–0.10

–0.10

–0.10

–0.10

–0.10

–0.10

–0.11

–0.11

0.58

TURKEY Production

mt

0.46

0.45

0.45

0.45

0.46

0.47

0.48

0.50

0.51

0.53

0.56

Consumption

mt

0.98

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.08

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.20

1.22

Net trade

mt

–0.51

–0.57

–0.59

–0.63

–0.62

–0.63

–0.64

–0.65

–0.65

–0.65

–0.65

–0.64


136


ANNEX A

Table A.18. Vegetable oil projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Marketing yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

8.81

8.79

9.24

9.46

9.72

9.88

10.04

10.16

10.31

10.44

10.57

10.68

Consumption

mt

8.59

8.88

9.17

9.39

9.57

9.73

9.92

10.10

10.29

10.49

10.69

10.91

Imports

mt

0.79

0.82

0.82

0.86

0.89

0.91

0.94

0.97

1.01

1.04

1.08

1.12

Exports

mt

1.06

0.63

0.86

0.91

1.01

1.05

1.04

1.01

1.00

0.98

0.94

0.87

Closing stocks

mt

0.99

0.67

0.70

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.80

0.82

0.83

0.85

0.87

Priceg

USD/t

433

526

522

529

541

557

564

573

583

593

601

610

8.02


mt

5.53

6.28

6.44

6.58

6.80

6.95

7.12

7.30

7.49

7.67

7.85

Consumption

mt

0.66

0.64

0.69

0.72

0.74

0.75

0.78

0.82

0.85

0.89

0.94

0.98

Exports

mt

4.88

5.65

5.74

5.86

6.06

6.20

6.33

6.48

6.63

6.78

6.91

7.03

Closing stocks

mt

0.25

0.21

0.22

0.22

0.23

0.23

0.24

0.25

0.25

0.26

0.27

0.27

Price (soy oil)h

ARS/t

663

1 200

1 229

1 293

1 372

1 453

1 481

1 518

1 559

1 600

1 635

1 667

Price (sunflower oil)h

ARS/t

860

1 585

1 644

1 675

1 718

1 755

1 746

1 733

1 730

1 725

1 717

1 704

BRAZIL Production

mt

4.60

6.13

6.29

6.48

6.65

6.84

7.02

7.21

7.39

7.58

7.77

7.96

Consumption

mt

2.93

2.80

2.98

3.09

3.17

3.23

3.28

3.34

3.41

3.48

3.56

3.64

Net trade

mt

1.67

3.35

3.30

3.38

3.48

3.61

3.74

3.86

3.97

4.09

4.21

4.32

CHINA Production

mt

8.01

9.60

10.02

10.27

10.59

11.05

11.57

12.08

12.62

13.17

13.77

14.40

Consumption

mt

11.01

16.55

17.70

17.98

18.86

19.84

20.57

21.34

22.14

22.83

23.46

23.99

Imports

mt

3.11

6.89

7.71

7.73

8.29

8.83

9.03

9.30

9.55

9.70

9.73

9.63

Closing stocks

mt

0.27

0.24

0.25

0.26

0.26

0.28

0.29

0.30

0.31

0.33

0.34

0.36

Pricei

CNY/t

3 779

5 424

5 106

5 040

5 196

5 357

5 571

5 755

5 936

6 120

6 292

6 458

INDIA Production

mt

2.71

3.16

3.68

3.81

3.95

4.08

4.19

4.32

4.43

4.53

4.64

4.75

Consumption

mt

7.91

8.29

8.40

8.66

8.87

9.02

9.20

9.43

9.62

9.82

10.03

10.24

Net trade

mt

–5.10

–5.08

–4.72

–4.85

–4.92

–4.94

–5.01

–5.12

–5.19

–5.29

–5.39

–5.49

RUSSIA Production

mt

1.37

1.77

1.76

1.77

1.81

1.87

1.90

1.95

1.98

2.02

2.05

2.08

Consumption

mt

2.05

2.54

2.71

2.85

2.92

2.94

3.00

3.07

3.18

3.29

3.42

3.55

Net trade

mt

–0.68

–0.79

–0.95

–1.07

–1.11

–1.07

–1.09

–1.13

–1.20

–1.28

–1.37

–1.47


mt

0.26

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.30

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.35

0.35

Consumption

mt

0.66

0.77

0.73

0.77

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.80

0.81

0.82

0.84

0.85

Net trade

mt

–0.40

–0.50

–0.46

–0.49

–0.48

–0.48

–0.48

–0.48

–0.49

–0.49

–0.49

–0.50



137

ANNEX A

Table A.18. Vegetable oil projections (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Marketing yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


mt

1.56

1.86

1.79

1.74

1.71

1.69

1.67

1.67

1.67

1.67

1.68

1.69

Consumption

mt

1.05

1.21

1.26

1.31

1.34

1.37

1.41

1.46

1.49

1.53

1.57

1.61

Net trade

mt

0.50

0.66

0.54

0.43

0.37

0.31

0.26

0.21

0.18

0.14

0.11

0.08


mt

1.97

2.02

2.02

2.03

2.05

2.09

2.12

2.16

2.20

2.24

2.29

2.33

Consumption

mt

5.33

5.96

6.17

6.38

6.59

6.84

7.09

7.34

7.57

7.81

8.07

8.34

Net trade

mt

–3.35

–3.96

–4.17

–4.36

–4.54

–4.75

–4.97

–5.18

–5.37

–5.57

–5.78

–6.01


mt

24.24

29.28

30.57

31.76

32.92

34.05

35.10

36.11

37.09

38.04

38.97

39.89

Consumption

mt

12.73

15.64

16.11

16.59

17.05

17.50

18.03

18.58

19.11

19.66

20.23

20.82

Net trade

mt

11.44

13.47

14.51

15.21

15.81

16.47

16.95

17.47

17.91

18.32

18.68

19.01


mt

1.97

2.13

2.14

2.17

2.23

2.32

2.42

2.53

2.66

2.81

2.97

3.15

Consumption

mt

2.86

3.10

3.20

3.32

3.43

3.55

3.68

3.81

3.94

4.07

4.21

4.36

Net trade

mt

–0.89

–0.94

–1.06

–1.14

–1.20

–1.24

–1.26

–1.28

–1.28

–1.27

–1.25

–1.22

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Average import price c.i.f., soyabean, sunflower and other oilseed oils, year beginning 1 July. c) Canola oil price, f.o.b. Vancouver (prior 2002, f.o.b. plant). d) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. e) Excludes sunflower seeds. f) Calculated import price. g) Wholesale price, crude soyabean oil, Decatur. h) Export price, f.o.b., Argentinean Ports. i) Calculated import price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

138



ANNEX A

Table A.19. Beef and veal projectionsa Calendar yearb

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1 804

PACIFIC MARKET AUSTRALIA Production

kt cwe

2 035

2 049

2 146

2 155

2 106

2 067

2 021

1 979

1 940

1 896

1 849

Consumption

kt cwe

719

712

761

770

769

776

770

768

770

770

762

758

Exports

kt cwe

1 318

1 338

1 386

1 387

1 338

1 293

1 252

1 213

1 172

1 128

1 088

1 048

Pricec

AUD/100 kg dw

258

280

261

230

225

216

217

217

216

214

218

226

CANADA Production

kt cwe

1 255

1 495

1 530

1 529

1 618

1 570

1 424

1 395

1 419

1 448

1 483

1 479

Consumption

kt cwe

1 016

989

1 039

1 058

1 051

1 063

1 073

1 080

1 082

1 078

1 076

1 069

Imports

kt cwe

287

100

150

163

173

184

193

202

210

218

225

232

Exports

kt cwe

520

611

641

634

741

690

544

517

547

588

633

641

Priced

CAD/100 kg dw

363

277

310

307

303

290

293

297

296

294

301

316

JAPAN Production

kt cwe

512

513

514

521

523

524

525

522

519

514

512

511

Consumption

kt cwe

1 411

1 149

1 201

1 356

1 413

1 446

1 458

1 482

1 521

1 569

1 614

1 661

Imports

kt cwe

896

611

687

835

890

922

933

960

1 002

1 055

1 102

1 150

Pricee

’000 JPY/100 kg dw

98

117

114

107

105

101

102

102

100

97

95

93

213

KOREA Production

kt cwe

255

230

228

225

218

214

211

210

211

213

213

Consumption

kt cwe

563

568

598

642

660

670

690

709

722

740

753

766

Imports

kt cwe

325

313

370

417

443

455

479

498

511

527

540

553

Pricef

’000 KRW/100 kg dw

653

725

603

471

466

455

456

457

455

453

458

467

MEXICO Production

kt cwe

1 271

1 240

1 235

1 222

1 229

1 250

1 262

1 260

1 260

1 258

1 256

1 252

Consumption

kt cwe

1 541

1 545

1 484

1 576

1 586

1 613

1 647

1 680

1 694

1 708

1 720

1 727

Imports

kt cwe

Priceg

MXN/100 kg dw

272

309

253

358

361

366

389

423

438

454

468

479

2 230

2 099

2 066

1 997

1 999

1 896

1 814

1 758

1 765

1 790

1 906

1 994

579


kt cwe

592

709

601

624

617

614

612

607

601

593

585

Consumption

kt cwe

110

109

111

115

115

113

114

114

114

115

114

113

Exports

kt cwe

479

609

496

513

505

503

501

496

493

488

485

477

Priceh

NZD/100 kg dw

259

201

181

165

170

177

175

176

175

173

176

183


kt cwe

12 173

11 248 11 896 12 005 12 180 12 538 12 732 12 980 13 056 13 167 13 264 13 345

Consumption

kt cwe

12 454

12 676 13 241 12 985 13 046 13 186 13 160 13 275 13 285 13 318 13 364 13 357

Imports

kt cwe

1 387

1 602

1 638

1 637

1 774

1 763

1 715

1 632

1 584

1 559

1 547

1 524

Exports

kt cwe

1 099

130

312

657

909

1 116

1 287

1 337

1 355

1 408

1 447

1 511

Pricei

USD/100 kg dw

256

296

285

270

264

252

254

254

252

250

255

266

MERCOSUR MARKET ARGENTINA Production

kt cwe

2 603

2 964

2 790

2 841

2 871

2 929

2 979

3 032

3 068

3 101

3 114

3 135

Consumption

kt cwe

2 293

2 321

2 168

2 210

2 230

2 244

2 279

2 326

2 359

2 404

2 428

2 454

Exports

kt cwe

316

649

628

637

647

691

707

712

714

703

692

687

Pricej

ARS/100 kg dw

241

318

345

386

423

439

449

477

491

508

524

537

BRAZIL Production

kt cwe

6 900

7 845

8 170

8 213

8 260

8 412

8 581

8 752

8 888

9 037

9 172

9 342

Consumption

kt cwe

6 112

6 495

6 781

6 851

6 863

6 997

7 138

7 298

7 397

7 516

7 612

7 754

Exports

kt cwe

834

1 386

1 427

1 399

1 434

1 452

1 480

1 492

1 527

1 558

1 597

1 625

Price

BRL/100kg dw

273

284

286

313

339

334

335

319

325

317

332

346



139

ANNEX A

Table A.19. Beef and veal projectionsa (cont.) Calendar yearb

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

OTHER MARKETS EU-25 Production

kt cwe

8 096

8 120

8 086

8 145

8 096

8 029

7 960

7 896

7 860

7 839

7 812

7 778

EU-15k

kt cwe

7 456

7 437

7 433

7 545

7 503

7 443

7 376

7 314

7 281

7 264

7 240

7 209

EU-10k

kt cwe

738

771

740

688

680

673

671

669

666

663

660

656

Consumption

kt cwe

7 971

8 261

8 246

8 324

8 326

8 287

8 245

8 211

8 209

8 197

8 199

8 188

EU-15

kt cwe

7 347

7 639

7 624

7 697

7 698

7 660

7 620

7 587

7 586

7 575

7 578

7 569

EU-10

kt cwe

623

623

623

627

628

628

625

624

623

623

621

619

Importsl

kt cwe

384

481

520

530

536

546

557

568

581

595

609

623

Exportsl

kt cwe

580

374

389

374

329

310

291

253

231

236

222

213

Closing stocks

kt cwe

400

286

257

234

211

189

170

170

170

170

170

170

Pricem

EUR/100 kg cwe

243

242

240

242

246

248

250

253

255

255

256

257

NORWAY Production

kt cwe

88

82

82

83

83

83

83

83

83

83

83

83

Consumption

kt cwe

87

82

82

83

83

83

83

83

83

83

83

83

Net trade

kt cwe

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


kt cwe

140

136

135

134

133

132

131

130

129

129

128

127

Consumption

kt cwe

142

137

136

135

134

133

132

131

130

129

128

127

Net trade

kt cwe

–3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

TURKEY Production

kt cwe

353

374

363

363

363

365

367

375

386

400

416

433

Consumption

kt cwe

353

386

400

408

408

408

413

419

425

431

437

443

Net trade

kt cwe

0

–2

–38

–45

–44

–43

–46

–44

–39

–31

–21

–9

Productionk

kt cwe

5 604

6 691

6 937

7 209

7 501

7 797

8 120

8 461

8 757

9 094

9 433

9 782

Consumption

kt cwe

5 563

6 656

6 904

7 179

7 473

7 772

8 099

8 442

8 741

9 080

9 421

9 772

Pricem

CNY/100 kg

1 203

1 273

1 225

1 193

1 214

1 240

1 246

1 254

1 279

1 304

1 330

1 355

Productionk

kt cwe

2 886

3 200

3 211

3 304

3 374

3 481

3 577

3 681

3 777

3 874

3 972

4 068

Consumption

kt cwe

2 617

2 830

2 869

2 942

3 002

3 067

3 133

3 205

3 273

3 346

3 421

3 497

Net trade

kt cwe

269

370

341

362

373

414

445

476

504

528

551

572

Production

kt cwe

2 175

2 223

2 108

2 048

2 041

2 116

2 166

2 233

2 303

2 347

2 390

2 424

Consumption

kt cwe

2 408

2 462

2 371

2 344

2 319

2 374

2 430

2 505

2 586

2 643

2 696

2 739

Importsn

kt cwe

516

528

460

460

460

460

460

483

516

543

565

582

Pricem

RUR/100 kg

351

472

485

564

615

635

666

709

729

751

765

793

642

CHINA

INDIA

RUSSIA


kt cwe

567

583

593

602

609

613

616

622

627

632

637

Consumption

kt cwe

598

680

658

663

663

670

678

680

685

691

697

705

Net trade

kt cwe

–59

–130

–99

–95

–87

–90

–96

–92

–92

–92

–93

–96


140


ANNEX A

Table A.19. Beef and veal projectionsa (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yearb

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

OTHER AFRICA Productionk

kt cwe

3 676

3 912

3 846

3 982

4 144

4 315

4 431

4 590

4 756

4 936

5 113

5 302

Consumption

kt cwe

3 911

4 166

4 305

4 428

4 579

4 685

4 829

4 972

5 121

5 286

5 454

5 632

Net trade

kt cwe

–228

–264

–469

–455

–445

–380

–407

–392

–375

–360

–351

–339

Productionk

kt cwe

4 580

4 833

4 786

4 901

5 034

5 162

5 277

5 428

5 582

5 740

5 906

6 069

Consumption

kt cwe

5 523

5 919

6 085

6 239

6 371

6 481

6 626

6 776

6 931

7 111

7 288

7 470

Net trade

kt cwe

–944

Productionk

kt cwe

1 002

848

919

909

907

905

902

907

915

926

940

955

Consumption

kt cwe

940

876

929

953

951

934

928

926

917

920

920

925

Net trade

kt cwe

74

–29

–10

–44

–44

–29

–26

–19

–2

6

20

30

Productionk

kt cwe

3 046

3 151

3 232

3 320

3 382

3 422

3 470

3 536

3 587

3 639

3 699

3 759

Consumption

kt cwe

2 936

2 973

3 010

3 050

3 119

3 195

3 259

3 308

3 371

3 431

3 492

3 550

Net trade

kt cwe

114

172

220

268

263

226

211

227

215

208

206

209

OTHER ASIA

–1 087 –1 299 –1 337 –1 337 –1 319 –1 350 –1 348 –1 349 –1 372 –1 383 –1 401

OTHER EUROPE

OTHER LATIN AMERICA

a) Excludes trade of live animals. b) Year ended 30 September for New Zealand. c) Weighted average price of cows 201-260 kg, steers 301-400 kg, yearling < 200 kg dw. d) Grade A slaughter steers > 1251 lb lw, Ontario – lw to dw conversion factor 0.6. e) Wholesale carcass price B2-B3 steers, Tokyo. f) Farm price of native cattle male 500 kg. g) Huasteco steers grade 1A, 400 kg lw. h) Schedule price M grade cow, 145.5-170 kg dw. i) Choice steers, 1 100-1 300 lb lw, Nebraska – lw to dw conversion factor 0.63. j) Buenos Aires wholesale liner, young bull, lw to dw conversion factor 0.55. k) Includes trade of live animals. l) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. m) Producer price. n) Includes trade of live animals. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



141

ANNEX A

Table A.20. Pig meat projectionsa Calendar yearb

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1 925

PACIFIC MARKET CANADA Production

kt cwe

1 735

1 900

1 944

1 960

1 947

1 903

1 872

1 813

1 843

1 911

1 940

Consumptionc

kt cwe

878

820

864

901

907

903

906

908

918

929

934

947

Exports

kt cwe

761

982

953

944

940

910

876

834

837

890

915

890

Priced

CAD/100 kg dw

146

160

135

112

114

121

128

137

136

134

141

145

JAPAN Production

kt cwe

1 259

1 276

1 251

1 235

1 198

1 198

1 205

1 199

1 180

1 150

1 118

1 103

Consumption

kt cwe

2 234

2 510

2 482

2 497

2 506

2 480

2 473

2 463

2 471

2 479

2 468

2 468

Imports

kt cwe

997

1 234

1 231

1 262

1 308

1 282

1 268

1 265

1 291

1 331

1 352

1 367

Pricee

'000 JPY/100kg dw

45

46

46

42

41

41

40

40

38

36

36

35

KOREA Production

kt cwe

953

1 010

1 053

1 092

1 120

1 145

1 171

1 201

1 230

1 267

1 310

1 357

Consumption

kt cwe

1 022

1 031

1 076

1 096

1 128

1 149

1 178

1 207

1 231

1 256

1 285

1 319

Imports

kt cwe

121

90

77

45

62

80

93

96

90

79

65

51

Exports

kt cwe

46

50

57

65

72

79

87

90

90

90

90

90

Pricef

’000 KRW/100kg dw

177

200

203

208

215

222

227

233

238

243

250

255

MEXICO Production

kt cwe

1 037

1 048

1 075

1 103

1 116

1 136

1 167

1 208

1 252

1 290

1 324

1 357

Consumption

kt cwe

1 206

1 277

1 296

1 355

1 401

1 417

1 451

1 498

1 544

1 582

1 636

1 695

Imports

kt cwe

198

257

254

290

329

331

337

349

354

359

383

414

Priceg

MXN/100 kg dw

2 026

2 201

2 328

2 011

2 122

2 367

2 550

2 448

2 468

2 604

2 722

2 570

Production

kt cwe

8 806

9 319

9 409

9 592

9 688

9 795

9 941

Consumption

kt cwe

8 588

8 871

8 988

9 182

9 303

9 367

9 451

9 586

9 707

9 806

9 868

Imports

kt cwe

454

509

542

542

540

556

554

572

619

676

713

735

Exports

kt cwe

676

963

958

942

951

988

1 032

1 080

1 120

1 159

1 183

1 244

Priceh

USD/100 kg dw

122

158

146

128

130

134

140

146

144

141

146

148

348

UNITED STATES 10 098 10 215 10 288 10 331 10 483 9 965

OCEANIA AUSTRALIA Production

kt cwe

386

409

399

388

378

372

366

362

358

354

351

Consumption

kt cwe

392

454

453

477

465

453

452

450

459

470

474

488

Exports

kt cwe

71

76

67

21

26

33

30

29

16

2

–5

–23

Pricei

AUD/100 kg dw

248

158

146

128

130

134

140

146

144

141

146

148


kt cwe

47

53

55

56

57

57

57

56

56

55

55

54

Consumption

kt cwe

68

78

82

88

90

90

92

93

94

95

96

97

Imports

kt cwe

Pricej

NZD/100 kg dw

21

25

27

28

29

31

32

34

36

37

39

41

310

292

282

266

269

280

285

288

288

287

289

293


142


ANNEX A

Table A.20. Pig meat projectionsa (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yearb

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

OTHER MARKETS EU-25 Production

kt cwe

21 030

21 164 21 390 21 382 21 563 21 837 22 066 22 130 22 212 22 281 22 332 22 403

EU-15k

kt cwe

17 729

17 883 18 008 17 960 18 037 18 181 18 336 18 371 18 431 18 488 18 532 18 590

EU-10k

kt cwe

3 322

Consumption

kt cwe

19 789

19 846 20 126 20 073 20 193 20 444 20 679 20 750 20 815 20 871 20 909 20 971

EU-15

kt cwe

16 522

16 588 16 852 16 804 16 917 17 152 17 367 17 432 17 495 17 545 17 581 17 641

EU-10

kt cwe

3 267

3 258

3 274

3 270

3 276

3 292

3 312

3 317

3 320

3 326

3 328

3 330

Importsl

kt cwe

22

13

14

19

24

28

32

35

38

39

40

41

Exports to Pacific markets

kt cwe

542

618

598

658

734

751

738

724

734

737

740

738

Exports to other marketsl

kt cwe

802

824

700

690

680

690

701

711

722

733

744

755

Pricem

EUR/100 kg dw

129

123

126

133

136

132

129

130

132

132

134

135

Production

kt cwe

108

108

110

111

113

115

117

120

122

124

126

128

Consumption

kt cwe

107

109

111

113

115

117

119

121

123

125

128

130

Net trade

kt cwe

1

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

Production

kt cwe

232

234

232

231

229

228

226

225

223

222

220

219

Consumption

kt cwe

246

248

247

245

244

242

241

239

238

236

235

234

Net trade

kt cwe

–15

–16

–16

–16

–16

–16

–16

–16

–16

–16

–16

–16

Production

kt cwe

198

173

180

179

182

201

215

228

233

247

259

271

Consumption

kt cwe

248

208

211

215

212

226

230

238

237

245

249

255

Net trade

kt cwe

–51

–35

–32

–36

–30

–25

–16

–10

–4

2

10

17

Productionk

kt cwe

2 523

2 371

2 603

2 798

2 908

3 000

3 088

3 221

3 305

3 399

3 480

3 632

Consumption

kt cwe

2 210

1 858

2 016

2 184

2 268

2 332

2 401

2 514

2 581

2 668

2 754

2 910

Net trade

kt cwe

314

513

588

614

640

668

687

706

724

731

726

722

Productionk

kt cwe

42 133

47 194 48 455 50 084 51 837 52 403 53 526 54 792 55 766 56 760 57 759 58 982

Consumption

kt cwe

42 093

46 958 48 194 49 851 51 584 52 139 53 236 54 480 55 458 56 455 57 450 58 669

Exports

kt cwe

157

327

347

338

355

367

386

405

408

411

418

425

Pricen

CNY/100 kg

803

832

815

814

838

860

878

905

933

961

990

1 019

3 301

3 402

3 443

3 546

3 677

3 750

3 779

3 801

3 813

3 820

3 833

NORWAY

SWITZERLAND

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

CHINA

INDIA Productionk

kt cwe

594

639

680

680

679

705

715

729

738

761

773

791

Consumption

kt cwe

594

641

660

666

683

695

706

718

733

745

759

771

Net trade

kt cwe

0

–2

19

14

–3

11

8

11

4

17

14

20

RUSSIA Production

kt cwe

1 693

1 779

1 788

1 837

1 887

1 913

1 947

1 973

2 013

2 070

2 110

2 167

Consumption

kt cwe

2 040

1 943

1 975

2 024

2 073

2 100

2 134

2 163

2 208

2 270

2 315

2 377

Imports

kt cwe

476

411

467

467

467

467

467

470

475

480

485

490

Priceo

RUR/100 kg

383

460

508

557

599

639

683

733

799

857

929

998



143

ANNEX A

Table A.20. Pig meat projectionsa (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yearb

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

SOUTH AFRICA Productionk

kt cwe

113

115

116

117

118

117

117

118

118

118

118

118

Consumption

kt cwe

123

133

132

134

139

139

142

142

147

147

151

153

Net trade

kt cwe

–10

–18

–16

–17

–22

–22

–25

–24

–29

–29

–32

–34

OTHER AFRICA Productionk

kt cwe

621

671

685

709

750

767

790

811

843

862

888

911

Consumption

kt cwe

665

724

746

757

781

801

833

844

873

890

917

939

Net trade

kt cwe

–44

–52

–61

–49

–35

–39

–50

–43

–43

–43

–47

–49

Productionk

kt cwe

5 986

6 816

6 956

7 099

7 284

7 358

7 522

7 709

7 996

8 184

8 407

8 639

Consumption

kt cwe

6 508

7 458

7 636

7 791

8 023

8 179

8 371

8 500

8 772

8 959

9 167

9 365

Net trade

kt cwe

–522

–642

–680

–691

–739

–821

–848

–792

–776

–775

–759

–726

Productionk

kt cwe

1 525

1 341

1 268

1 252

1 263

1 251

1 255

1 260

1 285

1 292

1 309

1 324

Consumption

kt cwe

1 682

1 592

1 576

1 534

1 579

1 587

1 614

1 603

1 647

1 647

1 668

1 678

Net trade

kt cwe

–144

–251

–307

–282

–316

–336

–358

–343

–362

–355

–359

–355

Productionk

kt cwe

1 325

1 474

1 552

1 619

1 641

1 663

1 690

1 725

1 750

1 782

1 811

1 852

Consumption

kt cwe

1 369

1 467

1 534

1 600

1 633

1 666

1 692

1 737

1 770

1 812

1 841

1 887

Net trade

kt cwe

–44

3

18

20

8

–3

–2

–12

–20

–29

–30

–34

OTHER ASIA

OTHER EUROPE

OTHER LATIN AMERICA

a) Excludes trade of live animals. b) Year ended 30 September for New Zealand. c) Excluding non-food parts. d) Carcass price, index 100, Ontario. e) Wholesale carcass price, excellent grade, Tokyo. f) Farm price of pigs 100 kg. g) Supreme grade. h) Barrows and gilts, No. 1-3, 230-250 lb lw, Iowa/South Minnesota – lw to dw conversion factor 0.72. i) Weighted average price, pigs 60-73 kg dw. j) Schedule price, pigs > 50 kg dw, Canterbury. k) Includes trade of live animals. l) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. m) Pig producer price. n) Producer price. o) Pig meat reference price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

144



ANNEX A

ANNEX A

Table A.21. Poultry meat projections Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt rtc

677

748

740

747

754

761

774

782

791

797

804

814

Consumption

kt rtc

651

725

715

717

724

731

744

752

761

767

774

784

Exports

kt rtc

Priceb

AUD/100 kg rtc

26

23

25

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

369

317

332

346

359

374

385

399

412

426

442

455

CANADA Production

kt rtc

1 074

1 101

1 171

1 171

1 204

1 221

1 245

1 269

1 285

1 300

1 315

1 334

Consumption

kt rtc

1 109

1 184

1 217

1 225

1 257

1 278

1 304

1 329

1 348

1 363

1 381

1 403

Imports

kt rtc

153

171

157

165

167

171

174

178

182

185

188

192

Pricec

CAD/100 kg rtc

154

169

149

152

153

155

157

159

161

163

166

168

EU-25 Production

kt rtc

10 613

EU-15

kt rtc

9 000

11 050 11 220 11 421 11 509 11 528 11 582 11 662 11 744 11 835 11 910 12 007 9 201

9 227

9 399

9 457

9 429

9 450

9 515

9 575

9 620

9 672

9 733

EU-10

kt rtc

1 616

1 849

1 993

2 021

2 052

2 099

2 132

2 147

2 169

2 215

2 238

2 274

Consumption

kt rtc

10 052

EU-15

kt rtc

8 529

8 763

8 941

9 107

9 196

9 215

9 277

9 355

9 428

9 510

9 570

9 651

EU-10

kt rtc

1 523

1 766

1 778

1 820

1 836

1 855

1 868

1 891

1 918

1 941

1 967

1 991

Importsd

kt rtc

480

489

534

581

616

651

679

696

715

732

750

768

Exportsd

kt rtc

1 040

1 008

1 035

1 075

1 093

1 109

1 116

1 112

1 113

1 117

1 123

1 134

Pricee

EUR/100 kg rtc

100

91

90

91

90

90

91

91

91

91

91

92

10 529 10 719 10 927 11 032 11 071 11 145 11 246 11 346 11 450 11 537 11 642

JAPAN Production

kt rtc

1 215

1 248

1 228

1 182

1 132

1 092

1 072

1 061

1 058

1 060

1 061

1 056

Consumption

kt rtc

1 750

1 596

1 705

1 715

1 763

1 775

1 779

1 776

1 773

1 767

1 773

1 766

Imports

kt rtc

541

332

481

536

634

687

711

719

719

710

715

714

Pricef

’000 JPY/100 kg rwt

120

123

121

118

114

109

106

104

101

98

95

92

671

KOREA Production

kt rtc

495

591

598

588

595

605

616

626

637

644

654

Consumption

kt rtc

601

705

701

694

703

714

728

739

753

762

774

793

Imports

kt rtc

109

116

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

Priceg

’000 KRW/100 kg rtc

176

155

195

207

208

209

210

211

212

213

214

215

MEXICO Production

kt rtc

1 943

2 253

2 343

2 402

2 550

2 665

2 733

2 767

2 825

2 893

2 934

2 979

Consumption

kt rtc

2 242

2 564

2 664

2 738

2 866

2 986

3 099

3 148

3 221

3 304

3 361

3 425

Imports

kt rtc

Priceh

MXN/100 kg rtc

300

315

325

340

320

325

370

386

401

416

431

450

1 450

1 530

1 534

1 549

1 545

1 531

1 523

1 534

1 542

1 548

1 555

1 563


kt rtc

122

155

163

162

164

168

168

171

173

175

176

178

Consumption

kt rtc

122

155

163

162

164

168

168

171

173

175

176

178

NORWAY Production

kt rtc

43

48

48

48

48

48

49

49

49

49

49

49

Consumption

kt rtc

43

48

48

49

49

49

49

49

49

49

49

49

Net trade

kt rtc

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


kt rtc

51

58

58

58

59

59

59

59

60

60

60

60

Consumption

kt rtc

96

105

105

106

106

106

107

107

107

107

107

107

Net trade

kt rtc

–45

–47

–47

–47

–47

–47

–47

–47

–47

–47

–47

–47



145

ANNEX A

Table A.21. Poultry meat projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TURKEY Production

kt rtc

646

628

629

606

628

640

660

668

684

698

713

728

Consumption

kt rtc

670

685

684

680

679

687

703

715

733

747

760

771

Net trade

kt rtc

–24

–57

–55

–74

–51

–47

–43

–47

–50

–49

–47

–43

Production

kt rtc

16 767

17 578 17 919 17 673 18 059 18 474 18 981 19 563 19 986 20 443 21 220 21 801

Consumption

kt rtc

14 234

15 179 15 439 15 090 15 429 15 801 16 269 16 816 17 211 17 643 18 393 18 952

Exports

kt rtc

2 544

2 397

2 532

2 590

2 638

2 680

2 719

2 754

2 782

2 807

2 834

2 856

Pricei

USD/100 kg rtc

128

164

163

170

158

151

149

149

148

145

143

143

1 225

UNITED STATES


kt rtc

823

856

872

914

942

964

1 008

1 061

1 108

1 144

1 184

Consumption

kt rtc

815

816

819

843

846

843

858

884

905

917

936

955

Exports

kt rtc

27

53

66

84

110

134

163

191

217

241

261

283

Pricej

ARS/100 kg rtc

148

273

294

312

318

321

324

328

331

334

338

342

BRAZIL Production

kt rtc

6 619

8 283

8 528

8 758

8 958

9 164

9 359

9 539

9 741

9 947 10 172 10 454

Consumption

kt rtc

5 284

5 789

5 841

6 086

6 269

6 391

6 558

6 705

6 896

7 008

7 249

7 458

Net trade

kt rtc

1 336

2 494

2 687

2 673

2 689

2 773

2 801

2 834

2 846

2 939

2 924

2 996

Production

kt rtc

9 311

9 700 10 015 10 178

Consumption

kt rtc

9 376

9 670 10 017 10 255 10 262 10 345 10 498 10 587 10 661 10 684 10 690 10 661

Imports

kt rtc

496

220

260

362

566

581

595

612

631

643

652

654

Exports

kt rtc

431

250

257

285

303

312

358

402

447

481

505

534

Pricek

CNY/100 kg rtc

885

917

889

870

888

912

922

950

961

922

910

891

CHINA 9 998 10 076 10 261 10 377 10 477 10 522 10 543 10 541

INDIA Production

kt rtc

1 235

1 640

1 727

1 807

1 915

1 999

2 092

2 199

2 302

2 404

2 510

2 624

Consumption

kt rtc

1 230

1 656

1 746

1 802

1 866

1 937

2 003

2 085

2 163

2 246

2 332

2 421

Net trade

kt rtc

5

–15

–19

5

49

62

89

114

140

158

178

204

RUSSIA Production

kt rtc

453

657

763

798

822

872

954

1 011

1 031

1 052

1 098

1 135

Consumption

kt rtc

1 675

1 686

1 767

1 806

1 871

1 921

2 004

2 111

2 189

2 268

2 376

2 466

Imports

kt rtc

1 242

1 000

1 004

1 010

1 050

1 050

1 050

1 100

1 158

1 217

1 278

1 332

Pricek

RUR/100 kg rtc

393

635

602

627

652

671

683

694

705

715

722

728


kt rtc

801

873

916

932

992

1 031

1 074

1 118

1 167

1 216

1 268

1 322

Consumption

kt rtc

885

980

1 035

1 104

1 150

1 194

1 243

1 288

1 334

1 379

1 429

1 478

Net trade

kt rtc

–84

–107

–118

–172

–158

–163

–170

–170

–167

–163

–161

–156


146


ANNEX A

Table A.21. Poultry meat projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt rtc

2 339

2 537

2 638

2 759

2 842

2 927

3 021

3 123

3 226

3 335

3 432

3 548

Consumption

kt rtc

2 661

2 959

3 071

3 177

3 245

3 354

3 472

3 569

3 641

3 741

3 829

3 935

Net trade

kt rtc

–318

–416

–430

–419

–403

–429

–454

–449

–419

–412

–404

–394

Production

kt rtc

7 843

7 832

8 168

8 461

8 612

8 852

9 096

9 353

9 578

9 837 10 105 10 379

Consumption

kt rtc

8 971

9 395

9 597

9 876 10 089 10 321 10 554 10 815 11 061 11 324 11 576 11 837

Net trade

kt rtc

–1 146

Production

kt rtc

688

892

882

891

909

937

967

991

1 015

1 041

1 069

1 098

Consumption

kt rtc

935

1 379

1 392

1 444

1 467

1 517

1 565

1 630

1 670

1 725

1 775

1 828

Net trade

kt rtc

–248

–488

–510

–553

–558

–581

–599

–639

–655

–684

–706

–730

Production

kt rtc

3 737

3 934

4 081

4 324

4 506

4 748

4 975

5 230

5 463

5 720

5 975

6 234

Consumption

kt rtc

4 051

4 327

4 520

4 697

4 908

5 122

5 342

5 577

5 829

6 084

6 364

6 657

Net trade

kt rtc

–327

–343

–438

–373

–402

–374

–366

–347

–366

–364

–389

–423

OTHER ASIA

–1 592 –1 429 –1 415 –1 477 –1 469 –1 457 –1 462 –1 483 –1 487 –1 471 –1 458

OTHER EUROPE

OTHER LATIN AMERICA

a) Year ended 30 September for New Zealand. b) Average retail price of chicken. c) Weighted average producer price of broilers < 2 kg, Ontario – lw to rtc conversion factor 0.75. d) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. e) Weighted average farm gate live fowls, top quality, lw to rtc conversion of 0.75, EU-15 starting in 1995. f) Consumer price. Young boneless broilers. g) Farm price of hi-broiler 1 kg. h) Average producer price, chicken. i) Wholesale weighted average broiler price 12 cities. j) Brazil export price. k) Producer price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



147

ANNEX A

Table A.22. Sheep meat projectionsa Average 1999-03

Calendar yearb

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt cwe

636

522

529

531

538

545

553

564

579

596

616

638

Consumption

kt cwe

295

256

256

250

252

253

259

264

266

267

270

272

Exports

kt cwe

340

264

271

281

286

291

294

300

313

328

346

367

Pricec (lamb)

AUD/100 kg dw

271

365

340

329

319

309

299

290

281

272

263

254

Priced (mutton)

AUD/100 kg dw

130

211

196

190

184

178

173

167

162

157

152

147

CANADA Production

kt cwe

14

17

17

18

18

18

19

19

20

20

21

21

Consumption

kt cwe

31

37

39

42

46

50

56

61

68

76

86

98

Imports

kt cwe

Pricee (lamb)

CAD/100 kg dw

17

20

22

24

28

32

37

42

48

55

65

77

544

541

483

455

445

431

433

436

430

423

427

435

EU-25 Production

kt cwe

1 084

1 048

1 034

1 029

1 021

1 017

1 005

999

986

975

964

954

EU-15f

kt cwe

1 052

1 017

1 003

998

990

985

973

968

956

945

934

923

EU-10f

kt cwe

32

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

30

30

30

Consumption

kt cwe

1 346

1 336

1 342

1 347

1 345

1 344

1 342

1 339

1 335

1 330

1 326

1 321

EU-15

kt cwe

1 317

1 308

1 314

1 319

1 317

1 316

1 314

1 311

1 307

1 302

1 298

1 293

EU-10

kt cwe

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

Net tradeg

kt cwe

–262

–288

–308

–318

–324

–327

–338

–340

–348

–355

–361

–368

Priceh

EUR/100 kg dw

386

381

387

387

389

392

395

398

401

404

407

409

MEXICO Production

kt cwe

47

48

49

50

52

53

55

56

58

60

61

63

Consumption

kt cwe

90

89

91

93

95

97

100

102

105

107

109

112

Imports

kt cwe

Pricei

MXN/100 kg dw

42

41

42

43

43

44

45

46

46

47

48

49

3 359

4 332

4 233

3 992

3 907

3 780

3 794

3 825

3 775

3 713

3 749

3 819

567


kt cwe

536

518

545

561

567

571

572

572

572

572

571

Consumption

kt cwe

93

97

92

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

99

Exports

kt cwe

434

445

444

463

467

470

471

470

469

470

467

461

Pricej (lamb)

NZD/100 kg dw

350

374

372

375

392

396

398

401

403

404

405

406

Pricej (mutton)

NZD/100 kg dw

162

186

193

196

208

215

220

224

227

231

235

239

306

TURKEY Production

kt cwe

350

320

326

320

298

285

278

276

279

286

295

Consumption

kt cwe

349

318

317

321

321

324

326

331

334

337

339

340

Net trade

kt cwe

4

3

10

1

–21

–37

–46

–53

–53

–49

–43

–33


kt cwe

103

89

92

93

95

98

99

102

104

106

108

110

Consumption

kt cwe

166

173

175

176

178

180

181

183

184

186

187

189

Imports

kt cwe

65

86

85

85

84

84

83

83

82

82

81

81

Pricek (lamb)

USD/100 kg dw

345

445

430

406

397

384

385

389

383

377

381

388


148


ANNEX A

Table A.22. Sheep meat projectionsa (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yearb

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

INDIA Productionf

kt cwe

700

704

727

755

776

792

809

827

845

862

880

898

Consumption

kt cwe

690

687

710

739

761

777

795

814

832

850

868

886

Net trade

kt cwe

10

17

17

16

15

15

14

14

13

13

12

12

Productionf

kt cwe

130

131

141

144

144

145

146

148

150

151

153

155

Consumption

kt cwe

174

157

159

170

173

176

179

184

187

191

195

199

Net trade

kt cwe

–44

–26

–19

–26

–28

–31

–33

–36

–38

–40

–42

–43

Productionf

kt cwe

1 814

1 902

1 942

2 004

2 067

2 123

2 181

2 239

2 302

2 362

2 424

2 483

Consumption

kt cwe

1 772

1 861

1 848

1 892

1 976

2 045

2 106

2 171

2 243

2 307

2 378

2 445

Net trade

kt cwe

45

37

91

109

88

74

72

64

56

51

43

34

Productionf

kt cwe

2 270

2 459

2 531

2 589

2 641

2 697

2 757

2 820

2 883

2 948

3 013

3 080

Consumption

kt cwe

2 604

2 788

2 831

2 883

2 938

3 005

3 062

3 131

3 189

3 254

3 315

3 378

Net trade

kt cwe

–334

–329

–300

–294

–297

–307

–305

–311

–306

–306

–302

–298

Productionf

kt cwe

189

201

196

189

185

183

181

180

179

179

179

180

Consumption

kt cwe

164

173

166

168

170

173

173

176

175

176

176

177

Net trade

kt cwe

25

27

30

21

15

10

8

4

4

3

3

3

Productionf

kt cwe

184

192

197

200

204

207

209

211

212

213

214

215

Consumption

kt cwe

179

189

186

186

186

187

188

188

188

189

189

190

Net trade

kt cwe

5

3

11

15

18

20

22

23

24

24

25

25

SOUTH AFRICA

OTHER AFRICA

OTHER ASIA

OTHER EUROPE

OTHER LATIN AMERICA

a) Excludes trade of live animal. b) Year ended 30 September for New Zealand. c) Sale yard price, lamb, 16-20 kg dw. d) Sale yard price, wethers, < 22 kg dw. e) A/B grade slaughter lambs, 80-94 lb lw, Toronto – lw to dw conversion factor 0.5. f) Includes trade of live animals. g) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. h) Market price for sheep meat, EU-15 starting in 1995. i) Average producer price, sheep. j) Schedule price, all grade average. k) Choice grade slaughter lamb, 95-115 lb lw, San Angelo – lw to dw conversion factor 0.5. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



149

ANNEX A

Table A.23. Meat per capita consumption projections Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

AUSTRALIA Total meat

kg/person

84.6

85.4

85.8

86.0

85.2

84.6

84.5

84.3

84.6

84.8

84.6

85.0

Beef and veal

kg/person

25.9

24.8

26.3

26.3

26.1

26.1

25.7

25.4

25.3

25.2

24.8

24.5

Pig meat

kg/person

15.8

17.6

17.4

18.2

17.6

17.0

16.8

16.6

16.8

17.1

17.2

17.6

Poultry meat

kg/person

29.5

31.8

31.0

30.8

30.8

30.9

31.2

31.3

31.5

31.5

31.6

31.9

Sheep meat

kg/person

13.4

11.2

11.1

10.8

10.7

10.7

10.8

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.0

CANADA Total meatb

kg/person

77.3

75.4

78.0

79.1

79.6

80.1

80.8

81.5

82.1

82.6

83.2

84.0

Beef and veal

kg/person

22.9

21.7

22.6

22.9

22.6

22.8

22.9

22.9

22.9

22.7

22.6

22.4

Pig meat

kg/person

22.1

20.0

21.0

21.7

21.7

21.5

21.5

21.5

21.6

21.8

21.9

22.1

Poultry meat

kg/person

31.4

32.7

33.3

33.3

34.0

34.4

34.9

35.4

35.8

36.1

36.5

36.9

72.7

EU-25 Total meat

kg/person

68.5

69.5

70.3

70.6

70.9

71.3

71.6

71.8

72.0

72.3

72.4

Beef and veal

kg/person

12.3

12.7

12.6

12.7

12.7

12.7

12.6

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.4

Pig meat

kg/person

34.1

34.0

34.4

34.2

34.4

34.8

35.1

35.2

35.3

35.4

35.4

35.5

Poultry meat

kg/person

19.5

20.3

20.7

21.0

21.2

21.2

21.4

21.5

21.7

21.9

22.0

22.2

Sheep meatc

kg/person

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

72.5

EU-15 Total meat

kg/person

70.5

70.9

71.6

71.8

72.0

72.2

72.5

72.5

72.5

72.5

72.5

Beef and veal

kg/person

13.6

14.0

13.9

14.0

13.9

13.8

13.7

13.6

13.6

13.5

13.4

13.4

Pig meat

kg/person

34.0

33.8

34.2

34.0

34.1

34.5

34.8

34.8

34.8

34.8

34.8

34.8

Poultry meat

kg/person

19.8

20.1

20.5

20.8

20.9

20.9

21.0

21.1

21.2

21.3

21.3

21.5

Sheep meatc

kg/person

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

73.9

EU-10 Total meat

kg/person

58.4

62.7

63.5

64.4

65.2

66.1

67.0

68.0

69.3

70.7

72.3

Beef and veal

kg/person

5.8

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

Pig meat

kg/person

34.2

34.9

35.4

35.6

35.9

36.4

36.9

37.3

37.9

38.5

39.2

39.9

Poultry meat

kg/person

18.0

21.4

21.7

22.4

22.7

23.1

23.5

24.0

24.7

25.4

26.1

26.9

Sheep meatc

kg/person

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Total meatb

kg/person

33.9

33.0

33.8

34.8

35.5

35.7

35.8

35.9

36.2

36.6

36.9

37.3

Beef and veal

kg/person

7.8

6.3

6.6

7.4

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.7

9.0

9.3

Pig meat

kg/person

13.7

15.3

15.2

15.3

15.3

15.2

15.2

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.3

15.3

Poultry meat

kg/person

12.1

11.0

11.8

11.8

12.2

12.3

12.3

12.3

12.3

12.3

12.4

12.4

Total meatb

kg/person

36.4

37.8

38.7

39.3

40.1

40.6

41.4

42.2

42.9

43.6

44.3

45.3

Beef and veal

kg/person

8.3

8.3

8.6

9.2

9.4

9.5

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.7

Pig meat

kg/person

16.9

16.7

17.3

17.6

18.0

18.2

18.6

19.0

19.3

19.7

20.1

20.6

Poultry meat

kg/person

11.2

12.9

12.7

12.5

12.6

12.8

13.0

13.1

13.3

13.5

13.7

14.0

47.7

JAPAN

KOREA

MEXICO Total meatb

kg/person

41.0

42.8

42.7

43.8

44.7

45.3

46.1

46.4

46.8

47.1

47.4

Beef and veal

kg/person

10.9

10.5

9.9

10.4

10.3

10.3

10.4

10.5

10.4

10.4

10.3

10.2

Pig meat

kg/person

9.5

9.7

9.7

10.0

10.1

10.1

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.7

10.9

11.2

Poultry meat

kg/person

19.9

21.9

22.4

22.7

23.4

24.1

24.6

24.7

24.9

25.2

25.3

25.5

NEW ZEALAND Total meat

kg/person

81.8

89.2

90.2

90.2

90.5

90.8

90.7

91.0

91.2

91.7

91.6

91.8

Beef and veal

kg/person

19.8

19.0

19.2

19.7

19.5

19.1

19.0

18.9

18.8

18.8

18.6

18.2

Pig meat

kg/person

13.6

15.2

15.7

16.7

17.0

16.9

17.1

17.1

17.2

17.3

17.3

17.4

Poultry meat

kg/person

27.5

33.9

35.4

34.8

34.9

35.5

35.3

35.7

35.8

36.0

35.9

36.1

Sheep meat

kg/person

20.9

21.2

19.9

19.0

19.1

19.3

19.2

19.4

19.5

19.5

19.7

20.1


150


ANNEX A

Table A.23. Meat per capita consumption projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

NORWAY Total meatb

kg/person

45.2

45.3

45.5

45.7

45.9

46.1

46.4

46.7

46.9

47.2

47.4

47.7

Beef and veal

kg/person

13.5

12.6

12.6

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.4

12.4

12.4

12.4

12.3

Pig meat

kg/person

18.5

18.6

18.9

19.1

19.4

19.7

20.0

20.3

20.6

20.9

21.2

21.5

Poultry meat

kg/person

8.4

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

9.3

50.1

SWITZERLAND Total meatb

kg/person

53.5

53.3

52.9

52.4

52.1

51.7

51.4

51.1

50.8

50.6

50.3

Beef and veal

kg/person

13.7

13.0

12.8

12.7

12.5

12.4

12.3

12.2

12.1

12.0

11.9

11.8

Pig meat

kg/person

26.5

26.3

26.0

25.7

25.5

25.3

25.1

24.9

24.7

24.5

24.4

24.2

Poultry meat

kg/person

11.7

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

12.5

Total meatb

kg/person

16.7

16.1

16.0

15.8

15.6

15.6

15.7

15.7

15.9

15.9

16.0

16.0

Beef and veal

kg/person

3.6

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

Pig meat

kg/person

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Poultry meat

kg/person

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.1

8.0

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.3

8.4

8.4

106.9

TURKEY

UNITED STATES Total meatb

kg/person

98.4

99.6

101.2

99.3

99.9

100.7

101.4

102.9

103.5

104.3

105.9

Beef and veal

kg/person

30.5

30.2

31.2

30.4

30.3

30.4

30.1

30.1

29.9

29.8

29.7

29.4

Pig meat

kg/person

23.5

23.5

23.6

23.9

24.1

24.0

24.1

24.2

24.4

24.4

24.4

24.5

Poultry meat

kg/person

43.9

45.4

45.8

44.4

45.0

45.8

46.8

48.0

48.7

49.6

51.3

52.5

ARGENTINA Total meatb

kg/person

67.2

64.5

61.3

62.1

62.0

61.9

62.3

63.3

63.7

64.3

64.6

65.0

Beef and veal

kg/person

42.8

41.9

38.7

39.1

39.1

39.0

39.3

39.8

40.0

40.4

40.4

40.5

Pig meat

kg/person

5.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

Poultry meat

kg/person

19.2

18.5

18.4

18.8

18.7

18.4

18.6

19.0

19.3

19.4

19.6

19.8

72.0

BRAZIL Total meatb

kg/person

61.8

62.2

63.5

65.0

65.5

66.2

67.1

68.1

68.9

69.5

70.6

Beef and veal

kg/person

24.8

25.5

26.3

26.3

26.0

26.3

26.5

26.8

26.9

27.1

27.1

27.4

Pig meat

kg/person

10.0

8.1

8.7

9.3

9.6

9.8

9.9

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.9

11.5

Poultry meat

kg/person

27.0

28.6

28.5

29.4

29.9

30.2

30.6

31.0

31.5

31.7

32.5

33.1

Total meatb

kg/person

37.3

40.5

41.4

42.4

43.4

43.8

44.5

45.3

45.8

46.4

46.9

47.5

Beef and veal

kg/person

3.1

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.8

5.0

Pig meat

kg/person

25.9

28.2

28.8

29.6

30.4

30.6

31.0

31.5

31.9

32.3

32.7

33.2

Poultry meat

kg/person

6.5

6.6

6.8

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.8

4.9

CHINA

INDIA Total meatb

kg/person

3.9

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

Beef and veal

kg/person

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

Pig meat

kg/person

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Poultry meat

kg/person

1.0

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

RUSSIA Total meatb

kg/person

33.3

33.4

33.7

34.2

34.9

35.8

36.9

38.3

39.6

40.9

42.3

43.6

Beef and veal

kg/person

11.6

11.9

11.5

11.5

11.4

11.7

12.0

12.5

12.9

13.3

13.6

13.9

Pig meat

kg/person

10.9

10.5

10.7

11.0

11.3

11.5

11.8

12.0

12.3

12.7

13.0

13.4

Poultry meat

kg/person

10.1

10.3

10.8

11.1

11.5

11.9

12.5

13.2

13.7

14.3

15.0

15.7

Total meatb

kg/person

32.7

35.1

35.7

37.3

38.2

39.1

40.1

40.9

41.9

42.7

43.7

44.6

Beef and veal

kg/person

9.5

10.6

10.2

10.2

10.2

10.3

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.4

10.5

10.5

Pig meat

kg/person

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

Poultry meat

kg/person

17.6

19.2

20.1

21.4

22.2

23.0

23.9

24.7

25.4

26.2

27.0

27.8

SOUTH AFRICA



151

ANNEX A

Table A.23. Meat per capita consumption projections (cont.) Calendar yeara

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

OTHER AFRICA Total meatb

kg/person

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.7

10.8

10.9

11.0

11.1

11.2

11.3

11.4

11.6

Beef and veal

kg/person

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

Pig meat

kg/person

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Poultry meat

kg/person

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

20.3

OTHER ASIA Total meatb

kg/person

18.1

18.7

18.8

19.0

19.1

19.2

19.4

19.5

19.7

19.9

20.1

Beef and veal

kg/person

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.1

Pig meat

kg/person

4.8

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

Poultry meat

kg/person

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.7

7.8

7.9

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

Total meatb

kg/person

33.5

37.3

37.8

38.4

39.2

39.9

40.8

41.6

42.5

43.4

44.3

45.2

Beef and veal

kg/person

7.5

7.1

7.6

7.8

7.8

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.8

7.8

7.9

Pig meat

kg/person

15.0

14.4

14.3

14.0

14.5

14.6

14.9

14.9

15.4

15.5

15.7

15.9

Poultry meat

kg/person

9.4

14.1

14.3

14.9

15.2

15.8

16.3

17.1

17.6

18.3

18.9

19.6

OTHER EUROPE

OTHER LATIN AMERICA Total meatb

kg/person

34.5

34.6

35.2

35.8

36.5

37.2

37.8

38.5

39.3

40.1

40.9

41.8

Beef and veal

kg/person

10.4

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.1

10.2

10.2

10.3

10.3

10.4

10.4

Pig meat

kg/person

5.4

5.5

5.7

5.8

5.9

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.1

6.2

Poultry meat

kg/person

18.0

18.3

18.8

19.3

19.9

20.4

21.0

21.6

22.3

23.0

23.7

24.5

a) Year ended 30 September for New Zealand. Consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pig meat and 0.88 for sheep meat. Rtc to retail weight conversion factor 0.88 for poultry meat. b) Excludes sheep meat. c) Includes goat meat. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

152



ANNEX A

Table A.24. Milk projections Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

12.3


mt pw

11.0

10.4

10.3

10.6

10.8

11.1

11.3

11.5

11.7

11.9

12.1

Liquid sales

mt pw

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Industrial use

mt pw

9.0

8.4

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.1

9.3

9.5

9.7

9.9

10.1

10.3

Priceb

AUDc/litre

28.8

26.7

27.8

28.4

29.2

29.9

30.4

30.9

31.4

32.0

32.6

33.2

8.7

CANADA Production

mt pw

8.2

8.1

8.2

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.6

8.7

Liquid sales

mt pw

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.4

Industrial use

mt pw

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

Pricec

CADc/litre

65.9

72.4

76.7

79.1

80.5

82.0

83.5

84.6

85.9

87.3

88.8

90.3

Priced

CADc/litre

58.1

63.4

68.3

70.5

72.3

74.1

76.0

77.8

79.6

81.4

83.2

85.0

EU-25 Production

mt pw

143.6

143.4

143.8

144.3

144.7

145.1

145.0

144.9

144.9

144.9

144.9

144.8

EU-15

mt pw

121.6

121.4

121.8

122.2

122.6

123.0

122.9

122.9

122.9

122.9

122.9

122.9

EU-10

mt pw

22.0

22.0

22.0

22.1

22.1

22.1

22.1

22.0

22.0

22.0

22.0

22.0

Liquid sales

mt pw

31.5

33.1

33.2

33.4

33.5

33.6

33.7

33.9

34.0

34.1

34.3

34.4

Industrial use

mt pw

83.4

82.0

82.3

82.7

83.0

83.3

83.1

83.0

82.9

82.9

82.8

82.7

Pricee

EUR/litre

0.321

0.291

0.288

0.278

0.270

0.270

0.271

0.272

0.273

0.274

0.274

0.275

JAPAN Production

mt pw

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

8.3

Liquid sales

mt pw

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

Industrial use

mt pw

Pricef

JPY/litre

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

84.7

85.2

84.6

84.8

84.7

84.0

83.7

83.2

82.5

82.0

81.3

80.7

3.1

KOREA Production

mt pw

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

Liquid sales

mt pw

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Industrial use

mt pw

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

Priceg

KRW/litre

625.7

652.8

662.9

661.9

680.0

686.8

692.2

699.5

710.1

715.3

726.6

733.2

MEXICO Production

mt pw

9.5

10.6

10.6

11.3

11.4

11.6

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.9

11.8

11.9

On farm use

mt pw

2.7

3.2

3.1

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

Liquid sales

mt pw

3.3

3.7

3.8

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.2

Industrial use

mt pw

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.3

Priceh

MXN/litre

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.4

20.5


mt pw

13.0

15.3

15.0

16.1

16.6

17.2

17.7

18.3

19.0

19.5

20.1

Liquid sales

mt pw

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Industrial use

mt pw

12.6

14.9

14.6

15.8

16.3

16.8

17.3

17.9

18.6

19.1

19.7

20.1

Pricei

NZDc/litre

37.0

36.1

35.7

33.8

33.0

33.1

33.6

33.6

33.6

33.8

33.9

34.0

1.6

NORWAY Production

mt pw

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

On farm use

mt pw

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Liquid sales

mt pw

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Industrial use

mt pw

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1


mt pw

3.9

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.7

On farm use

mt pw

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Liquid sales

mt pw

0.5

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

Industrial use

mt pw

2.7

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4



153

ANNEX A

Table A.24. Milk projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TURKEY Production

mt pw

9.7

9.5

9.5

9.6

9.7

10.0

10.3

10.6

11.0

11.4

11.8

12.2


mt pw

75.8

77.5

79.0

80.4

82.0

83.4

84.4

85.5

86.5

87.5

88.2

88.9

Liquid sales

mt pw

25.0

26.2

26.3

26.4

26.5

26.6

26.7

26.8

26.8

26.9

27.0

27.1

Industrial use

mt pw

49.1

50.8

52.2

53.6

55.1

56.4

57.3

58.3

59.3

60.2

60.8

61.5

Pricej

USDc/litre

27.5

34.9

31.2

32.3

33.4

33.7

34.3

34.4

35.2

35.4

35.3

35.6

Pricek

USDc/litre

30.2

36.5

32.7

33.8

34.9

35.3

35.9

36.0

36.8

37.1

37.0

37.3

14.0


mt pw

9.2

9.3

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.6

11.9

12.3

12.7

13.1

13.5

Liquid sales

mt pw

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

Industrial use

mt pw

7.5

7.5

8.2

8.7

9.2

9.8

10.1

10.5

10.9

11.3

11.7

12.1

Priceb

ARSc/litre

24.0

44.0

42.7

42.7

42.5

42.0

41.4

40.9

40.3

39.9

39.4

38.9

mt pw

21.4

23.8

24.1

24.7

25.1

25.7

26.2

26.9

27.5

28.2

28.9

29.6

34.7

BRAZIL Production CHINA Production

mt pw

13.0

18.4

20.1

21.7

23.4

25.0

26.7

28.3

29.8

31.4

33.1

Industrial use

mt pw

3.6

4.3

4.7

5.1

5.5

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.0

7.3

7.7

8.1

Other uses

mt pw

7.6

14.1

15.4

16.7

17.9

19.2

20.4

21.7

22.9

24.1

25.3

26.6

Pricel

CNY/litre

2 778.2

2 996.0 3 084.1 3 162.0 3 251.9 3 341.7 3 431.2 3 520.8 3 610.9 3 702.8 3 792.7 3 848.1

INDIA Production

mt pw

84.4

92.8

101.2

104.9

108.0

111.8

115.7

119.5

123.3

127.3

131.4

135.5

33.9

34.1

RUSSIA Production

mt pw

Price

RUR/100 kg

32.5

32.3

31.8

32.0

32.1

32.4

32.7

32.9

33.2

33.5

430.1

681.1

741.1

758.1

769.4

800.6

828.9

870.9

909.9

950.6

994.7 1 041.2


mt pw

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

On farm use

mt pw

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

2.7 1.0

Industrial use

mt pw

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

mt pw

38.4

39.2

39.7

39.2

38.9

38.9

39.1

39.4

39.6

39.8

40.0

40.2

mt pw

24.7

25.6

27.1

28.0

28.6

29.4

30.5

31.5

32.6

33.6

34.7

35.8

mt pw

63.5

66.3

68.4

69.3

70.6

72.2

74.1

75.9

77.9

79.8

81.7

83.6

mt pw

18.7

19.0

19.2

19.1

19.2

19.3

19.4

19.6

19.8

20.0

20.2

20.3

mt pw

595.4

620.8

637.4

649.5

660.0

672.5

684.9

697.2

709.9

722.4

735.1

747.4

OTHER EUROPE Production OTHER AFRICA Production OTHER ASIA Production OTHER LATIN AMERICA Production WORLD Production

a) Year ended 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. b) Price of milk to producers. c) Fluid milk price, class 1, Ontario. d) Industrial milk target return. e) Weighted average farm price, raw cow's milk. f) Average producer price, all milk. g) Producer price, 4th grade raw milk. h) Average producer price. i) Average farm price, all milk, milk to milk fat conversion factor 0.043. j) Average farm price, manufacturing milk, 3.5% fat, Minnesota-Wisconsin. k) Average received by farmers for all milk. l) Producer price. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

154



ANNEX A

Table A.25. Butter projections Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

133


kt pw

174

130

125

124

127

132

134

135

135

134

134

Consumption

kt pw

76

59

71

66

67

69

70

71

72

74

75

76

Exports

kt pw

109

77

59

64

66

69

70

70

68

67

65

64

Priceb

AUD/100 kg

258

239

251

246

241

240

243

244

245

245

246

247

CANADA Production

kt pw

82

83

86

84

82

82

82

82

83

83

84

84

Consumption

kt pw

87

90

91

91

90

90

89

90

90

90

90

91

Exports

kt pw

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pricec

CAD/100 kg

575

637

669

692

716

739

763

786

810

833

857

880

EU-25 Production

kt pw

2 139

2 095

2 014

1 968

1 922

1 896

1 873

1 854

1 827

1 806

1 783

1 761

EU-15

kt pw

1 857

1 810

1 727

1 684

1 646

1 631

1 615

1 596

1 571

1 550

1 528

1 506

EU-10

kt pw

282

285

288

284

276

265

258

257

256

255

255

254

Consumption

kt pw

1 958

1 909

1 908

1 886

1 846

1 820

1 809

1 788

1 764

1 742

1 719

1 697

EU-15

kt pw

1 713

1 656

1 660

1 640

1 603

1 578

1 570

1 552

1 530

1 510

1 490

1 470

EU-10

kt pw

245

253

248

246

244

242

239

237

234

232

229

226

Net traded

kt pw

138

239

167

128

114

84

73

68

66

62

59

55

Closing stocks

kt pw

344

381

320

274

236

228

219

216

213

215

221

229

Intervention stocks

kt pw

156

170

110

64

25

17

8

5

3

0

0

0

Pricee

EUR/100 kg

323

296

290

275

260

259

261

262

262

263

263

264

JAPAN Production

kt pw

83

81

83

85

85

85

85

85

86

86

86

86

Consumption

kt pw

88

83

85

87

87

86

86

86

86

87

86

86

Imports

kt pw

4

4

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Pricef

’000 JPY/100 kg

96

96

96

97

97

97

97

97

96

96

95

95

KOREA Production

kt pw

4

5

5

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

Consumption

kt pw

5

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

8

8

Imports

kt pw

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

MEXICO Production

kt pw

15

16

16

16

16

16

16

17

17

17

17

17

Consumption

kt pw

50

52

57

56

58

63

68

72

75

78

82

86

Imports

kt pw

Priceg

MXN/100 kg

35

36

41

40

43

47

51

55

58

61

65

68

2 624

2 718

2 779

2 900

2 962

2 974

2 966

2 964

2 986

3 016

3 048

3 071

512

NEW ZEALAND Productionh

kt pw

370

376

364

399

411

421

429

443

458

475

492

Consumption

kt pw

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

Exportsi, j

kt pw

329

387

380

403

417

427

434

440

448

456

466

477

Priceb, j

NZD/100 kg

290

277

316

291

301

319

323

322

322

323

324

326

NORWAY Production

kt pw

16

15

15

15

16

16

16

17

17

17

18

18

Consumption

kt pw

14

14

14

15

15

16

16

16

17

17

18

18

Net trade

kt pw

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


kt pw

39

43

43

43

43

43

43

43

43

43

43

43

Consumption

kt pw

43

44

44

44

44

44

44

44

44

44

44

44

Net trade

kt pw

–4

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1



155

ANNEX A

Table A.25. Butter projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TURKEY Production

kt pw

109

97

97

95

93

94

96

97

100

102

104

106

Consumption

kt pw

113

101

100

100

101

101

104

105

108

109

111

112

Net trade

kt pw

–4

–3

–4

–5

–8

–8

–8

–8

–8

–7

–7

–6


kt pw

577

551

562

583

600

602

599

606

615

619

618

621

Consumption

kt pw

586

578

582

582

595

597

597

605

615

618

617

620

Exports

kt pw

4

0

0

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Imports

kt pw

20

22

15

15

15

15

17

19

19

19

19

19

Closing stocks

kt pw

33

40

35

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

31

Pricek

USD/100 kg

280

385

353

389

378

383

383

380

379

380

380

378


kt pw

44

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

Consumption

kt pw

41

39

40

40

41

41

42

42

43

43

44

44

Net trade

kt pw

4

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

8

8

Pricel

ARS/100 kg

512

822

840

862

874

885

888

895

898

911

919

928

BRAZIL Production

kt pw

72

80

82

84

87

89

91

94

96

98

100

103

Consumption

kt pw

77

81

85

89

93

96

100

103

106

108

111

113

Net trade

kt pw

–5

–1

–3

–5

–6

–7

–8

–9

–10

–10

–10

–11

CHINA Production

kt pw

85

101

110

119

128

137

146

154

163

172

181

190

Consumption

kt pw

106

130

139

148

158

167

177

186

195

204

214

223

Imports

kt pw

21

29

29

30

30

31

31

32

32

33

33

34

INDIA Production

kt pw

2 174

2 736

2 860

2 916

2 943

3 070

3 222

3 333

3 464

3 599

3 739

3 881

Consumption

kt pw

2 179

2 722

2 841

2 908

2 947

3 071

3 219

3 330

3 459

3 592

3 730

3 868

Net trade

kt pw

–5

14

19

8

–4

0

4

3

4

7

9

12

RUSSIA Production

kt pw

271

279

281

282

279

282

283

283

287

288

293

293

Consumption

kt pw

369

405

415

424

435

445

457

469

481

493

505

517

Imports

kt pw

96

131

142

150

161

168

180

191

199

210

217

228


kt pw

13

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

10

10

10

10

Consumption

kt pw

14

12

12

12

13

13

13

13

13

14

14

14

Net trade

kt pw

–1

–1

–1

–1

–2

–2

–2

–3

–3

–3

–4

–4


156


ANNEX A

Table A.25. Butter projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt pw

200

233

235

230

226

227

229

232

235

238

240

242

Consumption

kt pw

167

193

190

189

186

184

183

182

180

178

177

175

Net trade

kt pw

33

40

44

41

40

43

47

50

55

60

64

67


kt pw

198

216

232

236

244

251

262

273

283

292

300

308

Consumption

kt pw

306

323

330

338

348

358

369

379

388

394

401

409

Net trade

kt pw

–110

–107

–98

–101

–105

–107

–107

–106

–105

–102

–101

–101


kt pw

866

938

983

993

1 002

1 024

1 051

1 076

1 103

1 131

1 157

1 183

Consumption

kt pw

1 043

1 098

1 122

1 153

1 181

1 202

1 226

1 254

1 280

1 305

1 331

1 356

Net trade

kt pw

–177

–158

–138

–158

–177

–176

–173

–175

–175

–173

–172

–171


kt pw

73

80

84

83

82

83

84

84

85

86

88

89

Consumption

kt pw

83

86

83

84

84

84

84

84

84

84

84

84

Net trade

kt pw

–9

–5

1

–1

–2

–1

0

1

1

2

4

5

a) Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. b) Average export price, f.o.b. c) Wholesale support price. d) Excludes intra-EU-25. e) Producer price. f) Average wholesale price for major users. g) Value of production divided by volume of production. h) Includes AMF measured in butter equivalent. i) Includes AMF measured in product weight. j) Year ended 30 June. k) Average wholesale price, grade A butter, Chicago. l) Wholesale price (precios mayoristas). est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



157

ANNEX A

ANNEX A

Table A.26. Cheese projections Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt pw

375

363

342

356

361

374

386

397

406

415

423

433

Consumption

kt pw

206

190

168

168

168

169

175

182

189

195

201

208

Exports

kt pw

208

210

214

230

238

253

262

268

273

279

284

290

Priceb

AUD/100 kg

411

387

405

381

370

360

356

357

359

360

361

363

CANADA Production

kt pw

334

331

333

333

338

343

347

350

353

356

360

364

Consumption

kt pw

339

347

350

349

354

358

362

366

369

372

376

380

Imports

kt pw

23

21

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

Exports

kt pw

17

7

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Pricec

CAD/100 kg

751

816

848

877

906

936

966

998

1 029

1 061

1 093

1 126

9 324

EU-25 Production

kt pw

7 946

8 323

8 528

8 667

8 770

8 819

8 924

9 013

9 082

9 164

9 244

EU-15

kt pw

7 079

7 410

7 608

7 741

7 831

7 847

7 931

7 995

8 039

8 097

8 152

8 208

EU-10

kt pw

867

914

920

926

939

972

994

1 018

1 043

1 067

1 092

1 116

Consumption

kt pw

7 560

7 884

8 085

8 214

8 314

8 362

8 467

8 557

8 631

8 715

8 798

8 881

EU-15

kt pw

6 773

7 079

7 281

7 401

7 487

7 499

7 563

7 605

7 632

7 669

7 705

7 741

EU-10

kt pw

788

805

804

813

827

863

905

952

999

1 046

1 093

1 140

Net traded

kt pw

383

440

443

454

456

457

457

456

451

449

446

443

Pricee

EUR/100 kg

414

422

407

397

379

369

374

378

381

384

387

390

Productionf

kt pw

124

140

144

146

147

150

153

155

158

160

162

164

of which: Domestic

kt pw

35

35

35

34

35

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

Consumption

kt pw

233

253

259

262

264

267

272

276

280

283

286

290

Importsg

kt pw

198

218

225

227

229

233

238

242

245

249

252

256

Priceh

’000 JPY/100 kg

32

33

33

33

34

33

33

33

33

33

34

34

JAPAN

KOREA Production

kt pw

18

26

29

32

35

38

41

44

47

50

53

56

Consumption

kt pw

48

65

72

78

82

86

90

93

97

101

105

109

Imports

kt pw

31

39

43

47

48

48

49

50

50

51

52

53

MEXICO Production

kt pw

132

132

135

138

142

146

150

154

158

162

167

170

Consumption

kt pw

196

222

224

226

236

248

258

266

273

280

288

295

Imports

kt pw

Pricei

MXN/100 kg

64

90

89

89

95

103

108

111

115

118

122

126

4 384

4 366

4 502

4 618

4 757

4 831

4 907

4 985

5 064

5 139

5 233

5 380

428


kt pw

280

284

294

318

336

349

363

375

387

401

416

Consumption

kt pw

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

Exportsj

kt pw

264

256

266

290

308

321

335

346

359

372

385

400

Priceb, j

NZD/100 kg

424

317

359

334

329

344

350

351

353

354

356

357

NORWAY Production

kt pw

83

83

83

83

83

83

84

84

84

84

84

84

Consumption

kt pw

68

71

72

72

73

73

74

75

75

76

77

77

Net trade

kt pw

16

12

12

11

11

10

9

9

8

8

7

7


kt pw

172

167

167

168

168

169

170

170

170

170

170

170

Consumption

kt pw

150

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

135

Net trade

kt pw

22

32

32

33

33

34

35

35

35

35

35

35


158


ANNEX A

Table A.26. Cheese projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TURKEY Production

kt pw

122

111

112

111

110

112

116

119

124

128

132

137

Consumption

kt pw

121

109

110

111

113

116

120

123

126

130

133

135

Net trade

kt pw

2

3

3

0

–2

–3

–3

–2

–2

–1

0

2


kt pw

3 770

4 019

4 144

4 268

4 400

4 551

4 675

4 791

4 885

4 977

5 046

5 114

Consumption

kt pw

3 902

4 184

4 300

4 430

4 565

4 718

4 842

4 962

5 056

5 150

5 218

5 289

Imports

kt pw

202

215

218

220

223

226

229

232

234

237

239

242

Exports

kt pw

49

57

59

55

55

57

58

59

60

62

64

66

Pricek

USD/100 kg

286

366

316

322

333

342

347

351

358

356

354

360


kt pw

410

382

394

412

425

439

453

471

486

502

518

532

Consumption

kt pw

395

357

370

380

390

401

413

428

441

452

464

474

Net trade

kt pw

Pricel

ARS/100 kg

18

25

23

32

35

38

39

43

45

50

54

58

369

606

617

640

652

661

664

668

670

680

685

690

BRAZIL Production

kt pw

454

498

506

519

534

546

560

577

594

609

625

642

Consumption

kt pw

465

507

519

525

537

549

564

582

601

615

632

648

Net trade

kt pw

–11

–9

–13

–6

–3

–3

–4

–6

–7

–7

–7

–6

CHINA Production

kt pw

213

252

274

297

319

341

363

385

407

429

451

473

Consumption

kt pw

225

270

293

315

338

361

383

405

427

449

472

494

Imports

kt pw

13

18

19

19

19

20

20

20

21

21

21

22

357

RUSSIA Production

kt pw

268

334

324

327

338

343

345

346

350

352

357

Consumption

kt pw

375

506

510

511

529

553

573

595

615

635

655

675

Imports

kt pw

113

171

197

194

201

219

239

258

275

293

308

328

34


kt pw

36

36

36

36

35

35

34

34

34

34

34

Consumption

kt pw

37

37

37

38

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Net trade

kt pw

–1

–1

–1

–2

–3

–5

–6

–7

–8

–9

–10

–10



159

ANNEX A

Table A.26. Cheese projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt pw

365

395

388

363

353

340

344

347

355

359

364

369

Consumption

kt pw

310

311

303

306

305

308

304

303

297

294

289

285

Net trade

kt pw

55

84

84

57

49

33

39

44

57

65

75

84


kt pw

736

690

732

753

786

813

850

888

925

958

994

1 032

Consumption

kt pw

781

733

774

801

832

869

910

948

981

1 014

1 050

1 087

Net trade

kt pw

–46

–43

–42

–48

–45

–56

–60

–60

–56

–56

–57

–56


kt pw

651

685

700

711

723

731

753

774

796

818

838

859

Consumption

kt pw

845

863

889

922

948

975

991

1 009

1 025

1 042

1 057

1 072

Net trade

kt pw

–195

–178

–189

–211

–225

–243

–238

–235

–229

–224

–219

–214


kt pw

327

352

356

345

340

333

336

340

347

354

362

370

Consumption

kt pw

369

392

383

389

393

398

398

398

398

398

397

397

Net trade

kt pw

–38

–33

–20

–36

–46

–58

–54

–50

–44

–37

–28

–19

a) Year ended 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. b) Average export price, f.o.b. c) Industry price of cheddar cheese. d) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. e) Producer price. f) Includes cheese produced from natural cheese imports. g) Includes natural cheese imports. h) Average import price, natural cheese, c.i.f. i) Value of production divided by volume of production. j) Year ended 30 June. k) Average wholesale price, American cheese, 40 lb blocks, f.o.b., Winconsin. l) Wholesale price (precios mayoristas). est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

160



ANNEX A

Table A.27. Skim milk powder projections Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

259


kt pw

242

199

213

222

230

241

247

250

252

254

257

Consumption

kt pw

43

37

48

49

51

53

56

58

60

63

65

68

Exports

kt pw

206

165

168

176

182

191

194

195

195

195

195

195

Priceb

AUD/100 kg

269

249

249

242

238

237

240

242

242

243

244

244

CANADA Production

kt pw

83

98

107

100

95

94

94

94

94

94

93

93

Consumption

kt pw

44

91

102

91

87

86

86

86

86

86

86

86

Exports

kt pw

41

12

9

9

8

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

Pricec

CAD/100 kg

483

524

574

591

604

617

631

644

656

669

681

694

EU-25 Production

kt pw

1 340

1 165

1 153

1 081

1 024

980

955

937

921

904

887

870

EU-15

kt pw

1 111

887

864

800

747

707

687

676

672

663

655

647

EU-10

kt pw

228

278

289

282

277

273

267

261

249

241

232

223

Consumption

kt pw

1 023

1 093

974

955

920

881

860

845

832

817

803

789

EU-15

kt pw

939

983

866

850

816

781

762

752

740

729

717

705

EU-10

kt pw

85

110

108

105

104

100

98

93

92

89

86

83

Net traded

kt pw

290

247

189

136

103

99

95

91

89

86

84

81

Closing stocks

kt pw

200

145

135

125

126

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

Intervention stocks

kt pw

105

20

10

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pricee

EUR/100 kg

223

190

189

187

186

187

187

188

188

188

189

189

JAPAN Production

kt pw

184

185

185

185

185

186

186

186

186

187

187

187

Consumption

kt pw

223

210

217

222

224

223

222

221

221

221

220

220

Imports

kt pw

47

38

38

37

36

35

34

33

33

32

31

31

Pricef

’000 JPY/100 kg

17

19

20

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

KOREA Production

kt pw

23

27

28

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

Consumption

kt pw

27

32

33

34

35

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

Imports

kt pw

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

MEXICO Production

kt pw

28

31

32

33

33

34

35

35

36

37

37

38

Consumption

kt pw

142

148

152

155

159

163

168

172

177

181

185

190

Imports

kt pw

Priceg

MXN/100 kg

114

120

124

126

129

133

136

140

144

148

151

155

2 010

3 020

3 008

2 980

2 900

2 947

2 977

2 990

2 998

3 007

3 016

3 018

546


kt pw

316

407

393

439

445

444

444

461

481

500

520

Consumption

kt pw

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

35

Exportsh

kt pw

267

343

333

376

382

381

382

400

419

439

459

485

Priceb, h

NZD/100 kg

355

278

294

284

291

303

308

309

310

311

312

312

NORWAY Production

kt pw

7

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Consumption

kt pw

7

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Net trade

kt pw

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


kt pw

26

22

23

22

20

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

Consumption

kt pw

15

16

15

15

14

14

14

13

13

13

13

12

Net trade

kt pw

11

6

8

7

6

5

5

7

7

7

7

8



161

ANNEX A

Table A.27. Skim milk powder projections (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yeara

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

TURKEY Production

kt pw

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption

kt pw

4

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Net trade

kt pw

–4

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5

–5


kt pw

672

676

642

639

632

597

553

522

509

495

470

454

Consumptioni

kt pw

457

657

600

532

495

463

415

393

384

384

378

364

Exports

kt pw

144

212

166

151

151

143

146

138

128

114

94

93

Closing stocks

kt pw

354

250

129

88

77

72

67

62

62

62

62

62

Pricej

USD/100 kg

213

198

201

200

195

197

195

195

201

204

208

211


kt pw

39

35

36

39

42

45

49

53

57

62

67

71

Consumption

kt pw

21

14

13

13

13

12

12

11

11

11

10

10

Net trade

kt pw

Pricek

ARS/100 kg

20

21

23

26

30

33

38

41

46

51

57

61

385

714

728

753

775

785

791

798

803

814

819

823

70

BRAZIL Production

kt pw

65

74

69

66

66

66

67

70

70

70

70

Consumption

kt pw

88

84

79

75

73

73

74

76

77

76

76

77

Net trade

kt pw

–23

–10

–11

–9

–7

–7

–7

–7

–6

–6

–6

–7

CHINA Production

kt pw

64

75

79

82

86

92

97

103

111

120

130

141

Consumption

kt pw

93

140

144

146

149

156

162

169

178

187

198

210

Imports

kt pw

29

65

65

63

63

64

65

66

67

68

68

69

149

RUSSIA Production

kt pw

134

141

141

142

141

142

143

144

145

146

148

Consumption

kt pw

173

180

184

188

191

196

200

205

210

215

220

225

Imports

kt pw

60

64

68

71

75

79

82

86

90

93

97

101

Exports

kt pw

22

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25


kt pw

22

19

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

17

17

17

Consumption

kt pw

26

25

25

26

26

27

27

27

28

28

28

29

Net trade

kt pw

–4

–6

–6

–7

–8

–8

–9

–10

–10

–11

–11

–12


162


ANNEX A

Table A.27. Skim milk powder projections (cont.) Calendar yeara

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt pw

167

144

143

146

149

152

155

158

161

164

168

172

Consumption

kt pw

110

93

94

96

98

98

99

100

100

101

101

102

Net trade

kt pw

57

51

49

50

51

54

56

58

61

64

67

70


kt pw

9

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Consumption

kt pw

178

173

173

168

167

165

164

164

164

165

165

166

Net trade

kt pw

–175

–165

–164

–160

–159

–157

–156

–156

–156

–156

–157

–158


kt pw

50

45

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

Consumption

kt pw

559

618

628

635

647

656

664

674

683

691

700

710

Net trade

kt pw

–512

–576

–586

–592

–603

–611

–618

–627

–635

–642

–650

–659


kt pw

31

40

42

42

42

43

44

45

45

46

47

48

Consumption

kt pw

94

81

81

81

81

81

81

80

80

80

80

80

Net trade

kt pw

–59

–43

–41

–41

–41

–40

–39

–38

–37

–36

–35

–34

a) Year ended 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. b) Average export price, f.o.b. c) Average wholesale price. d) Excludes intra EU-25 trade. e) Producer price. f) Unit import price for feed use. g) Average import price c.i.f., SMP and WMP. h) Year ended 31 June. i) Excludes domestic feed use. j) Average wholesale price, non-fat dry milk, f.o.b., Central States. k) Wholesale price (precios mayoristas). est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



163

ANNEX A

Table A.28. Whey powder and casein projections Average 1999-03

Calendar year

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

AUSTRALIA Net trade, whey

kt pw

46.4

77.3

74.9

76.2

78.0

79.9

81.2

82.0

82.7

83.5

84.6

85.6

Exports, casein

kt pw

10.5

7.8

8.0

9.6

10.9

12.6

14.1

15.4

16.6

17.8

19.0

20.2

kt pw

–5.3

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

–0.6

kt pw

146.9

234.0

240.2

235.6

235.5

232.4

231.4

229.8

228.2

226.7

225.2

223.7

CANADA Net trade, whey EU-25 Net trade, whey Casein EU-15 Production

kt pw

158.8

176.7

183.7

188.5

195.8

201.8

208.7

215.4

222.1

229.0

235.5

242.1

Consumption

kt pw

147.4

163.5

170.1

177.6

182.0

188.8

193.8

199.2

204.6

209.8

215.4

220.9

Net trade

kt pw

11.8

13.3

13.5

10.9

13.8

13.0

14.9

16.2

17.5

19.1

20.1

21.2

JAPAN Net trade, whey

kt pw

–42.6

–49.5

–54.0

–58.9

–64.2

–69.5

–75.7

–82.3

–89.3

Imports, casein

kt pw

9.0

8.1

7.6

7.2

6.7

5.9

5.4

4.9

4.4

–97.1 –105.5 –114.6 4.0

3.6

3.3

Import price, casein

’000 JPY/100 kg

53.7

56.6

56.5

52.1

52.3

48.4

47.1

45.2

43.2

41.6

39.8

38.0

kt pw

–36.6

–38.5

–37.4

–36.4

–36.7

–37.0

–37.3

–37.6

–38.0

–38.3

–38.6

–38.9

kt pw

–55.3

–54.0

–54.5

–51.0

–54.0

–54.8

–55.4

–55.9

–57.6

–58.7

–59.7

–60.7

KOREA Net trade, whey MEXICO Net trade, whey NEW ZEALAND Net trade, whey

kt pw

7.9

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

9.6

Exports, casein

kt pw

114.6

127.0

122.0

133.0

136.3

142.1

147.2

152.9

159.0

165.2

171.0

176.5

Export price, casein

USD/100 kg

424.1

495.4

443.0

437.7

466.8

473.2

480.5

485.0

487.5

489.3

491.3

491.2

UNITED STATES Whey Production

kt pw

509.3

492.8

527.9

556.7

578.7

603.2

627.7

651.9

675.9

699.4

722.6

745.8

Consumption

kt pw

346.6

342.2

391.0

425.0

445.1

467.0

489.1

510.6

531.4

551.9

572.2

592.6

Exports

kt pw

171.0

159.2

145.5

140.3

142.2

144.8

147.2

149.8

152.9

156.0

158.9

161.7

Pricea

USD/100 kg

44.0

40.3

39.4

39.8

40.5

41.9

42.7

42.8

42.2

41.7

42.3

42.3

kt pw

69.9

70.2

68.6

68.9

68.2

68.1

67.4

66.6

65.8

65.1

64.4

63.7

kt pw

1.9

6.2

7.2

7.9

8.7

9.6

10.6

11.1

11.7

12.2

12.8

13.5

kt pw

–35.6

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

–32.3

kt pw

–124.9

kt pw

–9.9

Imports, casein ARGENTINA Net trade, whey BRAZIL Net trade, whey CHINA Net trade, whey

–172.2 –184.9 –195.5 –206.4 –214.7 –225.1 –236.4 –247.4 –258.9 –270.9 –284.0

RUSSIA Net trade, whey

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

–23.8

a) Wholesale price, edible dry whey, Wisconsin, plant. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

164



ANNEX A

Table A.29. Whole milk powder projections Calendar yeara

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

218


kt pw

189

187

208

209

210

213

215

216

215

216

217

Consumption

kt pw

44

75

72

70

66

62

58

53

49

47

45

43

Exports

kt pw

151

117

142

143

149

156

162

167

171

174

176

179

EU-25 Production

kt pw

945

933

933

932

932

931

931

930

930

929

928

927

EU-15

kt pw

862

839

837

835

833

831

830

828

826

824

822

820

EU-10

kt pw

83

94

96

97

99

100

101

103

104

105

106

107

Consumption

kt pw

408

412

398

397

400

397

398

398

398

398

399

399

EU-15

kt pw

360

354

339

338

341

339

340

340

341

341

341

342

EU-10

kt pw

48

58

59

59

59

58

58

58

58

57

57

57

Exportsb

kt pw

557

542

555

555

551

552

549

547

546

544

542

540

JAPAN Production

kt pw

52

49

48

46

45

43

42

40

39

38

37

35

Consumption

kt pw

52

49

48

46

45

43

42

40

39

38

37

35

MEXICO Production

kt pw

146

156

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

194

199

203

Consumption

kt pw

189

198

202

205

208

212

215

218

222

225

228

230

Imports

kt pw

45

46

44

43

41

39

38

36

35

33

31

30

Pricec

MXN/100 kg

5 056

5 576

5 758

5 932

6 148

6 295

6 456

6 632

6 817

7 008

7 233

7 532

752


kt pw

433

580

569

609

616

631

654

671

690

710

730

Consumption

kt pw

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Exportsd

kt pw

431

576

565

606

613

628

650

667

686

706

726

749

Pricee

NZD/100 kg

374

292

315

289

293

310

316

318

318

318

318

318

1

NORWAY Production

kt pw

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Consumption

kt pw

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Net trade

kt pw

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


kt pw

16

18

16

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

Consumption

kt pw

15

15

14

14

12

12

12

10

10

10

10

10

Net trade

kt pw

2

3

2

–1

2

2

2

4

4

4

4

4

0

TURKEY Production

kt pw

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption

kt pw

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Net trade

kt pw

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3


kt pw

32

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

Consumption

kt pw

32

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

Exports

kt pw

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Closing stocks

kt pw

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1



165

ANNEX A

Table A.29. Whole milk powder projections (cont.) Calendar yeara

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014


kt pw

210

248

261

274

286

299

313

327

341

356

370

384

Consumption

kt pw

92

102

106

109

112

115

118

121

124

127

130

133

Net trade

kt pw

118

146

156

164

173

184

195

206

217

228

240

250

Pricef

ARS/100 kg

432

716

732

746

760

772

778

784

789

800

806

813

381

BRAZIL Production

kt pw

279

318

319

321

325

331

339

349

358

365

373

Consumption

kt pw

351

355

359

366

373

380

389

401

412

421

431

440

Net trade

kt pw

–72

–37

–40

–45

–48

–49

–50

–52

–54

–56

–57

–59

CHINA Production

kt pw

553

640

672

671

688

714

742

776

817

866

927

985

Consumption

kt pw

602

769

805

805

823

848

879

915

959

1 011

1 074

1 133

Exports

kt pw

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

Imports

kt pw

70

150

154

155

156

155

157

160

163

166

168

169

RUSSIA Production

kt pw

94

102

103

103

101

103

104

105

106

107

108

108

Consumption

kt pw

111

119

122

125

128

132

135

139

142

146

149

153

Imports

kt pw

22

23

25

28

33

35

37

40

42

45

47

50

Production

kt pw

15

15

17

15

15

15

14

14

14

13

13

13

Consumption

kt pw

7

9

8

9

9

9

9

10

10

10

10

10

Net trade

kt pw

8

7

9

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

SOUTH AFRICA


kt pw

36

49

53

50

49

49

50

51

51

52

52

53

Consumption

kt pw

28

38

38

39

40

40

41

41

41

41

41

42

Net trade

kt pw

8

11

14

11

9

9

10

10

10

11

11

11


kt pw

14

12

11

11

12

12

11

12

12

12

12

12

Consumption

kt pw

258

311

320

335

353

363

375

388

400

419

433

449

Net trade

kt pw

–251

–301

–310

–325

–342

–352

–364

–377

–390

–408

–423

–438


kt pw

44

45

46

46

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Consumption

kt pw

443

453

468

484

500

514

527

542

556

572

587

604

Net trade

kt pw

–400

–407

–422

–437

–454

–466

–478

–492

–506

–520

–535

–551


kt pw

185

212

244

230

222

223

223

222

222

223

224

225

Consumption

kt pw

337

353

353

359

365

370

376

381

386

392

397

403

Net trade

kt pw

–154

–145

–114

–134

–148

–153

–158

–164

–169

–173

–178

–183

a) Year ended 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. b) Excludes intra-EU-25 trade. c) Value of production divided by volume of production. d) Including exports of other dairy products made from WMP. e) Export price. f) Wholesale price (precios mayoristas). est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

166



ANNEX A

Table A.30. Dairy per capita consumption projectionsa Calendar yearb

Average 1999-03

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

AUSTRALIA Milk

l/person

99.3

94.9

94.8

94.3

93.0

92.2

91.6

91.4

91.2

91.0

90.6

90.4

Butter

kg/person

3.9

2.9

3.5

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

Cheese

kg/person

10.6

9.5

8.3

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.3

8.6

8.9

9.1

9.4

9.6

SMP

kg/person

2.2

1.8

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

WMP

kg/person

2.3

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

99.2

CANADA Milk

l/person

90.7

92.2

92.5

92.5

93.9

95.1

96.1

96.9

97.6

98.3

98.8

Butter

kg/person

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

Cheese

kg/person

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.8

10.9

11.0

11.0

11.1

11.2

11.2

11.3

11.4

SMP

kg/person

1.4

2.8

3.2

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

83.3

EU-25 Milk

l/person

79.1

81.2

81.3

81.7

81.8

82.1

82.3

82.5

82.8

83.1

83.2

Butter

kg/person

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

Cheese

kg/person

16.7

17.3

17.7

18.0

18.2

18.2

18.4

18.6

18.8

18.9

19.1

19.3

SMP

kg/person

2.3

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

WMP

kg/person

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

84.4

EU-15 Milk

l/person

80.7

83.8

83.9

84.0

84.0

84.1

84.2

84.3

84.3

84.3

84.4

Butter

kg/person

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

Cheese

kg/person

17.9

18.5

18.9

19.2

19.4

19.3

19.4

19.5

19.5

19.5

19.5

19.6

SMP

kg/person

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

WMP

kg/person

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

76.8

EU-10 Milk

l/person

71.1

67.2

67.6

69.3

69.9

70.7

71.3

72.4

73.9

75.7

75.9

Butter

kg/person

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

Cheese

kg/person

10.6

11.1

11.1

11.3

11.6

12.2

12.9

13.7

14.6

15.5

16.5

17.5

SMP

kg/person

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

WMP

kg/person

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

41.0

JAPAN Milk

l/person

37.9

37.3

37.6

37.9

38.1

38.5

38.8

39.2

39.6

40.1

40.5

Butter

kg/person

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Cheese

kg/person

1.8

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

SMP

kg/person

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

WMP

kg/person

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

28.8

KOREA Milk

l/person

27.9

28.0

28.0

28.0

27.9

28.0

28.2

28.3

28.4

28.5

28.6

Butter

kg/person

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

Cheese

kg/person

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

SMP

kg/person

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

MEXICO Milkc

l/person

31.9

34.5

35.3

36.2

37.1

38.0

38.8

39.6

40.4

41.2

41.9

42.7

Butter

kg/person

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Cheese

kg/person

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

SMP

kg/person

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

WMP

kg/person

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.9



167

ANNEX A

Table A.30. Dairy per capita consumption projectionsa (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yearb

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

NEW ZEALAND Milk

l/person

84.7

82.2

81.3

80.6

79.8

79.2

78.7

78.1

77.5

76.9

76.3

75.8

Butter

kg/person

8.1

7.8

7.7

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.3

7.2

Cheese

kg/person

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.5

SMP

kg/person

9.0

8.7

8.7

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.2

8.1

8.1

WMP

kg/person

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

78.0

NORWAY Milkc

l/person

103.5

96.4

94.3

92.2

90.3

88.5

86.6

84.9

83.1

81.4

79.7

Butter

kg/person

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

Cheese

kg/person

15.0

15.5

15.6

15.7

15.8

15.9

16.0

16.1

16.2

16.3

16.4

16.5

SMP

kg/person

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

WMP

kg/person

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

167.6

SWITZERLAND Milkc

l/person

61.6

158.0

157.3

156.6

156.1

142.8

142.5

142.3

142.1

142.0

154.8

Butter

kg/person

5.9

6.0

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

Cheese

kg/person

20.7

18.3

18.2

18.1

18.1

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

17.9

17.9

SMP

kg/person

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

WMP

kg/person

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

TURKEY Butter

kg/person

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

Cheese

kg/person

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

SMP

kg/person

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

WMP

kg/person

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

82.7

UNITED STATES Milk

l/person

89.1

86.6

86.2

85.7

85.3

84.9

84.5

84.2

83.8

83.5

83.1

Butter

kg/person

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Cheese

kg/person

13.7

14.2

14.5

14.8

15.1

15.5

15.8

16.1

16.3

16.4

16.5

16.7

SMPd

kg/person

1.6

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

WMP

kg/person

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

42.5

ARGENTINA Milk

l/person

45.7

44.8

44.5

44.2

43.9

43.6

43.4

43.2

43.0

42.9

42.7

Butter

kg/person

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Cheese

kg/person

10.5

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.5

10.7

10.8

11.0

11.2

SMP

kg/person

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

WMP

kg/person

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

0.6

BRAZIL Butter

kg/person

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

Cheese

kg/person

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

SMP

kg/person

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

WMP

kg/person

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

CHINA Milke

l/person

5.8

10.6

11.4

12.3

13.2

14.0

14.8

15.6

16.4

17.2

17.9

18.7

Butter

kg/person

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

Cheese

kg/person

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

SMP

kg/person

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

WMP

kg/person

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

INDIA Butter

kg/person

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

Cheese

kg/person

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0


168


ANNEX A

Table A.30. Dairy per capita consumption projectionsa (cont.) Average 1999-03

Calendar yearb

2004 est.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

RUSSIA Butter

kg/person

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

Cheese

kg/person

2.6

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.9

SMP

kg/person

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

WMP

kg/person

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.3

SOUTH AFRICA Butter

kg/person

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Cheese

kg/person

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

SMP

kg/person

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

WMP

kg/person

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

OTHER EUROPE Butter

kg/person

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

Cheese

kg/person

3.5

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

SMP

kg/person

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

WMP

kg/person

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

OTHER AFRICA Butter

kg/person

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Cheese

kg/person

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

SMP

kg/person

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

WMP

kg/person

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

OTHER ASIA Butter

kg/person

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

Cheese

kg/person

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

SMP

kg/person

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

WMP

kg/person

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

OTHER LATIN AMERICA Butter

kg/person

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Cheese

kg/person

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

SMP

kg/person

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

WMP

kg/person

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

a) Milk excludes on farm use. b) Year ended 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand. c) In Mexico, Switzerland and Turkey on farm use is large. d) Excludes feed use. e) Fluid milk and other dairy products not specified. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



169

ANNEX A

ANNEX A

Table A.31. Main policy assumptions for sugar markets Average 1999-03

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

ARGENTINA Tariff, sugar

ARS/t

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

Tariff, raw sugar

%

41.7

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

Tariff, white sugar

%

51.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

35.0

BRAZIL

CANADA Tariff, raw sugar

CAD/t

24.3

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

24.1

Tariff, white sugar

CAD/t

35.6

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

35.4

CHINA TRQ sugar

kt

1 731

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

1 954

Tariff, in-quota, raw sugar

%

20.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

15.0

Tariff, in-quota, white sugar

%

30.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

20.0

Tariff, over-quota

%

75.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

50.0

EUR/t

632

632

632

632

632

632

632

632

632

632

632

632

Total quota, white sugarc kt rse

..

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957

18 957 16 003

EUROPEAN UNION Intervention price, white sugar From A quota

kt rse

..

16 003

16 003

16 003

16 003

16 003

16 003

16 003

16 003

16 003

16 003

From B quota

kt rse

..

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

2 954

kt rse

18 462

18 753

18 079

18 206

18 206

18 254

17 376

17 191

16 987

16 789

16 518

16 203

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

1 274

Effective quotad Subsidised export limits EU-15

kt rse

EU-15

000 EUR

EU-10

kt rse

EU-10

000 EUR

1 285 508 460

499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100 499 100

164

157

157

157

157

157

157

157

157

157

157

157

34 220

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

32 560

Tariff, raw sugar

EUR/t

342

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

Tariff, white sugarb

EUR/t

423

419

419

419

419

419

419

419

419

419

419

419

INR/t

634

750

750

750

750

750

750

750

750

750

750

750

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

20

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

INDIA Intervention price, sugar cane

Applied tariff, raw sugar % INDONESIA Tariff, white sugar

%

JAPAN Minimum stabilisation price, raw sugar

JPY/kg

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

152

Tariff, raw sugar

JPY/kg

72.2

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

71.8

Tariff, white sugar

JPY/kg

103.7

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

103.1

19.7

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

Mexico common external MXN/t tariff, raw sugar

3 659

4 465

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

Mexico common external tariff, white sugar MXN/t

3 730

4 465

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

4 514

KOREA Tariff

%

MEXICO


170


ANNEX A

Table A.31. Main policy assumptions for sugar markets (cont.) Average 1999-03

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

RUSSIA Tariff, raw sugare

%

29

69

69

67

65

64

62

61

59

58

57

57

Tariff, white sugar

%

49.6

89.6

112.4

118.2

121.0

106.5

126.1

128.2

130.4

115.8

128.2

135.0

TRQ, raw sugar

kt rse

3 725

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

b

UNITED STATES

Loan rate, cane sugar

USD/t

397

397

397

397

397

397

397

397

397

397

397

397

Loan rate, beet sugar

USD/t

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

504.9

TRQ, raw sugar

kt rse

1 116

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

1 117

TRQ, refined sugar

kt rse

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

22

Raw sugar high tier tariff, over quota USD/t

341

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

339

White sugar high tier tariff, over quota

USD/t

359

357

357

357

357

357

357

357

357

357

357

357

%

105

105

105

105

105

105

105

105

105

105

105

105

SOUTH AFRICA Tariff, raw sugar

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Price based special safeguard actions apply. c) Includes the 10 new member countries from May 2004. d) Production that receives official support. e) Assumes a wholesale price target of USD 470 per tonne as the basis for setting the floating tariff duty. The source for tariffs (except United States and Russia) is AMAD (Agricultural Market Access Database). The source for Russia and United States tariffs is ERS, USDA. rse: Raw sugar equivalent. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



171

ANNEX A

Table A.32. World sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

OECD Production

kt rse

42 232

41 499

43 092

42 829

42 606

42 688

41 118

41 187

41 228

41 293

41 304

41 069

Consumption

kt rse

40 071

41 796

41 538

41 734

41 982

42 272

42 496

42 738

42 989

43 212

43 435

43 579

Closing stocks

kt rse

12 715

11 691

11 789

11 659

11 293

11 042

11 001

10 852

10 771

10 686

10 629

10 592

NON-OECD Production

kt rse

97 317

106 532 107 825 112 062 113 546 116 276 123 065 125 645 127 648 129 274 135 394 137 000

Consumption

kt rse

97 351

106 635 109 344 111 599 114 571 117 583 119 790 122 189 124 990 127 308 131 345 134 316

Net tradeb

kt rse

–2 291

–302

–1 457

–1 224

–990

–667

1 337

1 402

1 680

1 834

2 074

2 472

Closing stocks

kt rse

52 435

56 142

56 081

57 769

57 734

57 095

59 033

61 086

62 064

62 196

64 171

64 382

WORLD Production

kt rse

139 549

148 032 150 918 154 891 156 152 158 964 164 183 166 832 168 876 170 567 176 698 178 069

Consumption

kt rse

137 422

148 431 150 882 153 332 156 553 159 855 162 286 164 928 167 979 170 521 174 780 177 895

Closing stocks

kt rse

65 149

67 834

67 869

69 428

69 027

68 137

70 034

71 938

72 835

72 882

74 800

Price, raw sugarc

USD/t

179.0

219.1

188.6

182.3

179.3

195.7

174.2

172.0

169.8

185.2

172.0

165.3

Price, white sugard USD/t

225.4

251.9

222.2

215.6

212.5

229.3

207.2

205.0

202.8

218.3

205.0

198.4

74 974

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Non-OECD net exports (imports) equal OECD net imports (exports). c) Raw sugar world price, New York No. 11, f.o.b. stowed Caribbean port (including Brazil), bulk spot price, September/August. d) Refined sugar price, London No. 5 , f.o.b. Europe, spot, September/August. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

172



ANNEX A

Table A.33. Sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15


kt rse

5 120

5 456

5 443

5 437

5 432

5 529

5 645

5 550

5 627

5 642

5 746

5 702

Consumption

kt rse

1 084

1 190

1 201

1 207

1 217

1 225

1 235

1 245

1 254

1 259

1 268

1 275

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

3 592

4 079

4 116

4 153

4 179

4 204

4 224

4 256

4 282

4 309

4 336

4 363

Exports, white sugar

kt rse

123

126

133

140

148

157

166

175

185

196

207

218

Closing stocks

kt rse

2 385

3 037

3 035

2 976

2 869

2 816

2 841

2 721

2 632

2 516

2 457

2 310

Price, raw sugarb

AUD/t

315.7

303.5

255.7

247.6

243.7

265.1

236.7

234.1

231.0

251.3

233.9

225.2

CANADA Production

kt rse

96

109

108

102

109

106

105

105

104

104

103

103

Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

1 214

1 323

1 325

1 360

1 353

1 383

1 391

1 388

1 390

1 404

1 396

1 402

Imports, white sugar

kt rse

42

30

36

29

33

26

28

29

31

32

34

35

Consumption

kt rse

1 311

1 446

1 460

1 471

1 481

1 490

1 498

1 506

1 513

1 519

1 526

1 532

Closing stocks

kt rse

200

290

286

292

291

302

313

315

313

319

312

305

20 920

19 957

21 142

20 796

20 603

20 457

18 561

18 371

18 162

17 942

17 670

17 350

EU-15

kt rse

17 557

16 498

17 763

17 522

17 378

17 291

15 470

15 342

15 197

15 041

14 833

14 578

EU-10

kt rse

3 362

3 459

3 378

3 275

3 225

3 166

3 091

3 028

2 965

2 901

2 837

2 772

kt rse

2 671

2 386

2 631

2 431

2 430

2 429

3 125

3 278

3 457

3 667

3 912

4 199

17 792

18 380

17 995

17 932

17 948

17 975

17 955

17 948

17 948

17 950

17 952

17 940

EU-25 Production

Imports, sugarc Consumption EU-15

kt rse

14 546

15 074

14 746

14 762

14 778

14 791

14 803

14 820

14 843

14 867

14 891

14 916

EU-10

kt rse

3 246

3 306

3 250

3 170

3 170

3 184

3 151

3 128

3 106

3 083

3 060

3 024

Exports, white sugarc

kt rse

6 275

4 491

5 740

5 337

5 086

4 898

3 715

3 685

3 649

3 632

3 600

3 574

Closing stocks

kt rse

4 220

2 268

2 302

2 253

2 241

2 241

2 240

2 233

2 228

2 224

2 220

2 216

JAPAN Production

kt rse

877

933

947

949

940

936

941

941

941

941

941

941

Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

1 510

1 512

1 529

1 555

1 591

1 622

1 644

1 672

1 700

1 727

1 753

1 780

Consumption

kt rse

2 391

2 437

2 469

2 498

2 526

2 552

2 580

2 607

2 635

2 662

2 689

2 716

Price, whited

’000 JPY/t

121.3

113.2

111.8

111.5

112.2

113.3

114.7

116.3

117.7

119.1

120.6

122.1

KOREA Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

1 530

1 628

1 607

1 650

1 702

1 847

1 812

1 951

1 898

2 021

2 043

2 025

Consumption

kt rse

1 135

1 292

1 325

1 366

1 408

1 457

1 504

1 541

1 581

1 598

1 612

1 625


kt rse

333

335

344

348

355

362

368

374

381

387

394

400

Closing stocks

kt rse

591

743

683

622

564

594

536

574

512

550

589

591

MEXICO Production

kt rse

5 237

5 640

5 408

5 583

5 686

5 770

5 857

5 944

6 032

6 119

6 205

6 228

Consumption

kt rse

5 008

5 717

5 678

5 766

5 833

5 900

5 966

6 033

6 099

6 166

6 231

6 233

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

70

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Closing stocks

kt rse

1 739

1 941

1 863

1 873

1 883

1 893

1 903

1 913

1 923

1 933

1 943

1 953


kt rse

7 785

7 402

7 988

7 889

7 704

7 721

7 793

8 018

8 062

8 202

8 253

8 316

Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

1 373

1 492

1 469

1 442

1 442

1 442

1 645

1 442

1 603

1 442

1 442

1 591

Consumption

kt rse

9 038

8 959

8 996

9 048

9 107

9 173

9 246

9 319

9 393

9 467

9 541

9 615


kt rse

101

231

231

231

231

231

231

231

231

231

231

231

Closing stocks

kt rse

2 086

2 097

2 364

2 455

2 301

2 099

2 098

2 046

2 125

2 110

2 072

2 171

Price, rawe

USD/t

451.6

454.8

465.2

467.6

467.5

467.4

465.4

473.5

465.4

472.1

474.7

465.0

Price, whitef

USD/t

529.7

537.4

547.8

550.1

550.1

549.9

548.0

556.1

548.0

554.7

557.3

547.6



173

ANNEX A

Table A.33. Sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent) (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

OTHER OECDg Production

kt rse

2 459

2 245

2 289

2 307

2 367

2 404

2 441

2 481

2 520

2 560

2 599

2 639

Consumption

kt rse

2 705

2 802

2 829

2 860

2 877

2 912

2 924

2 950

2 975

3 000

3 026

3 051

Net trade, raw sugar

kt rse

–233

–252

–256

–274

–268

–276

–284

–290

–296

–302

–308

–314

Net trade, white sugar

kt rse

51

–233

–221

–208

–195

–182

–169

–157

–144

–131

–118

–105

3 756

ACP COUNTRIESh Production

kt rse

3 526

3 656

3 662

3 688

3 691

3 707

3 708

3 724

3 730

3 739

3 747

Consumption

kt rse

1 655

1 709

1 749

1 790

1 831

1 873

1 915

1 958

2 001

2 045

2 076

2 106

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

2 192

2 201

2 242

2 226

2 233

2 213

2 187

2 151

2 168

2 135

2 129

2 123

Closing stocks

kt rse

1 134

1 263

1 263

1 258

1 230

1 194

1 178

1 181

1 146

1 125

1 105

1 084


kt rse

1 712

1 770

1 845

1 904

1 951

1 997

2 041

2 080

2 117

2 155

2 194

2 233

Consumption

kt rse

1 531

1 608

1 631

1 652

1 673

1 695

1 717

1 740

1 762

1 785

1 809

1 832

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

65

65

66

71

71

88

95

101

113

121

129

137


kt rse

132

186

186

181

183

195

196

213

225

237

258

273

Closing stocks

kt rse

1 186

1 166

1 131

1 136

1 162

1 184

1 219

1 247

1 266

1 279

1 279

1 270

39 376

BRAZIL Production Sugar

kt rse

21 895

29 426

30 186

30 821

31 560

32 002

33 241

33 683

35 321

36 331

37 990

Alcohol

mn L

12 259

14 826

15 211

15 845

16 540

17 329

18 180

19 628

21 179

22 416

24 118

25 723

Consumption

kt rse

9 712

10 395

10 659

10 926

11 196

11 469

11 743

12 021

12 300

12 581

12 956

13 268

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

7 270

10 879

11 245

11 193

11 537

11 664

12 494

12 430

13 590

14 151

14 772

15 517


kt rse

4 783

7 488

8 066

8 258

8 427

8 675

8 903

9 163

9 462

9 779

10 396

10 843

Closing stocks

kt rse

5 293

6 414

6 630

7 074

7 473

7 668

7 769

7 838

7 807

7 627

7 493

7 241

Price, raw sugarb

BRL/t

426.5

655.3

589.7

595.3

606.8

683.2

625.8

640.2

652.3

734.6

704.1

698.8

Price, white sugarb

BRL/t

541.4

753.4

695.0

704.2

719.4

800.3

744.6

763.3

779.4

865.7

839.5

838.6

Production

kt rse

9 185

11 260

11 429

11 600

11 774

11 951

12 130

12 312

12 497

12 684

12 875

13 068

Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

842

1 081

1 503

1 883

2 391

2 872

3 292

3 789

4 098

4 587

4 889

5 197


kt rse

143

219

229

253

271

306

306

307

308

308

309

309

Consumption

kt rse

9 927

12 500

13 316

13 795

14 396

14 955

15 537

16 161

16 742

17 362

17 819

18 328


kt rse

224

37

22

138

69

159

143

154

165

175

185

195

Closing stocks

kt rse

2 164

3 238

3 058

2 859

2 827

2 840

2 885

2 975

2 967

3 007

3 071

3 119

1 902

CHINA

CUBA Production

kt rse

3 240

1 700

1 746

1 777

1 802

1 823

1 842

1 860

1 877

1 894

1 911

Consumption

kt rse

686

689

709

729

742

756

781

794

815

835

850

868

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

2 611

1 082

1 155

1 120

1 140

1 135

1 139

1 142

1 138

1 136

1 138

1 109


kt rse

29

69

69

67

65

64

62

61

59

58

57

57

Closing stocks

kt rse

394

406

356

356

347

349

343

339

336

332

328

324

INDIA Production

kt rse

19 353

12 968

17 195

20 012

20 356

22 106

21 611

23 236

23 675

24 187

24 475

24 883

Consumption

kt rse

18 239

19 250

19 989

20 729

21 468

21 774

22 299

22 824

23 250

23 876

24 402

24 927

Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

132

3 620

2 103

525

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Closing stocks

kt rse

13 204

8 075

7 276

6 970

5 738

5 945

5 127

5 403

5 687

5 851

5 773

5 572


174


ANNEX A

Table A.33. Sugar projections (in raw sugar equivalent) (cont.) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

INDONESIA Production

kt rse

1 814

2 130

2 055

2 089

2 098

2 110

2 147

2 197

2 256

2 301

2 358

Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

533

569

676

522

544

581

586

611

636

674

694

2 346 719


kt rse

1 398

1 327

1 405

1 490

1 650

1 569

1 662

1 648

1 598

1 556

1 510

1 474

Consumption

kt rse

3 693

3 853

3 959

4 042

4 158

4 252

4 381

4 509

4 630

4 762

4 880

5 007

Closing stocks

kt rse

2 158

2 756

2 931

2 989

3 121

3 128

3 142

3 088

2 947

2 715

2 396

1 926

OIS Production

kt rse

1 704

1 630

1 696

1 745

1 763

1 769

1 789

1 814

1 838

1 860

1 884

1 911

Consumption

kt rse

2 233

2 300

2 351

2 251

2 344

2 198

2 242

2 260

2 291

2 323

2 352

2 387

Net trade

kt rse

–806

–1 040

–1 309

–1 012

–1 164

–858

–907

–892

–907

–926

–936

–952

RUSSIA Production

kt rse

1 793

2 065

2 149

2 211

2 233

2 242

2 266

2 298

2 328

2 357

2 387

2 421

Imports, raw sugar

kt rse

4 794

5 044

5 244

5 181

5 331

5 428

5 606

5 630

5 724

5 832

5 913

6 012


kt rse

148

156

162

160

165

168

173

174

177

180

183

186

Consumption

kt rse

6 577

6 860

7 419

7 372

7 563

7 616

7 820

7 872

7 996

8 131

8 242

8 373

Closing stocks

kt rse

2 412

2 272

2 274

2 277

2 279

2 281

2 282

2 283

2 284

2 286

2 287

2 288


kt rse

2 497

2 377

2 359

2 482

2 420

2 544

2 495

2 475

2 554

2 632

2 684

2 736

Consumption

kt rse

1 602

1 638

1 671

1 704

1 736

1 770

1 804

1 838

1 874

1 909

1 946

1 983

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

961

781

804

841

859

870

871

757

756

842

885

899


kt rse

269

247

215

201

192

183

180

172

164

156

148

152

Closing stocks

kt rse

1 037

960

905

915

819

809

716

688

710

694

656

613

Price, raw sugarb

ZAR/t

1 420.9

1 487.7 1 442.6 1 478.1 1 461.0 1 613.1 1 450.0 1 465.9 1 469.0 1 626.8 1 533.5 1 496.8

Price, white sugarb

ZAR/t

1 797.3

1 710.5 1 700.0 1 748.6 1 731.9 1 889.4 1 725.3 1 747.9 1 755.2 1 917.4 1 828.4 1 796.2

THAILAND Production

kt rse

6 543

5 650

5 800

6 021

6 215

6 255

6 190

6 340

6 461

6 723

6 872

7 037

Consumption

kt rse

2 009

2 278

2 321

2 361

2 401

2 441

2 480

2 520

2 559

2 599

2 638

2 678

Exports, raw sugar

kt rse

2 309

1 690

1 722

1 997

2 138

2 260

2 197

2 130

2 336

2 415

2 474

2 505


kt rse

2 090

2 114

1 973

1 807

1 690

1 592

1 607

1 715

1 628

1 614

1 673

1 683

Closing stocks

kt rse

1 636

1 613

1 397

1 253

1 240

1 203

1 109

1 084

1 022

1 118

1 205

1 375

Price, raw sugarb

THB/t

7 398

8 827

7 554

7 305

7 184

7 822

6 946

6 868

6 773

7 380

6 845

6 575

Price, white sugarb

THB/t

9 342

10 149

8 903

8 642

8 517

9 162

8 265

8 189

8 092

8 698

8 162

7 890

REST OF WORLD Production

kt rse

23 794

31 659

27 471

27 476

27 449

27 536

33 379

33 404

32 774

32 194

35 804

35 124

Consumption

kt rse

39 095

43 129

43 155

43 834

44 648

46 371

46 659

47 281

48 359

48 690

50 967

52 150

Net trade, raw sugar

kt rse

–4 352

–1 906

–3 072

–4 847

–5 199

–4 667

–3 934

–3 033

–3 710

–3 589

–3 656

–3 565

Net trade, white sugar

kt rse

–12 573

Closing stocks

kt rse

21 086

–12 087 –13 490 –13 336 –12 814 –13 167 –12 114 –12 539 –12 807 –13 178 –13 924 –14 453 27 495

28 374

30 198

31 012

30 010

32 778

34 473

35 406

35 676

38 093

39 084

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. b) Export price, f.o.b. c) Excludes intra-EU trade. d) White sugar, refined, lower price; Tokyo market. e) Raw sugar price, September-August New York No. 14. f) Refined beet sugar price (Midwest), September-August. g) Includes New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey. h) The subset of African, Caribbean and Pacific countries that export sugar to both the European Union and the United States. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.



175

ANNEX A

Table A.34. Sugar per capita consumption projections (in raw sugar equivalent) Average 99/0003/04

Crop yeara

04/05 est.

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

58.9

Australia

kg/person

55.9

59.3

59.2

58.9

58.9

58.8

58.8

58.9

58.9

58.8

58.9

Canada

kg/person

42.2

45.3

45.4

45.5

45.5

45.6

45.6

45.7

45.7

45.7

45.8

45.8

EU-15

kg/person

38.4

39.3

38.4

38.3

38.2

38.1

38.1

38.0

37.9

37.8

37.7

37.7

EU-25

kg/person

39.3

40.3

39.4

39.2

39.2

39.2

39.1

39.1

39.0

39.0

39.0

38.9

Japan

kg/person

18.8

19.1

19.3

19.6

19.8

20.0

20.3

20.5

20.8

21.1

21.4

21.6

Korea

kg/person

24.0

26.8

27.3

28.0

28.8

29.7

30.5

31.1

31.9

32.1

32.3

32.5

Mexico

kg/person

50.5

55.4

54.2

54.3

54.2

54.0

53.9

53.8

53.6

53.5

53.4

52.7

United States

kg/person

31.7

30.4

30.3

30.2

30.1

30.1

30.1

30.1

30.1

30.1

30.1

30.1

Argentina

kg/person

40.8

41.4

41.6

41.8

41.9

42.1

42.3

42.5

42.7

42.8

43.0

43.2

Brazil

kg/person

56.4

58.3

59.1

59.9

60.7

61.5

62.3

63.1

63.9

64.7

66.0

67.0

China

kg/person

7.8

9.6

10.2

10.5

10.9

11.2

11.6

12.0

12.4

12.7

13.0

13.3

Cuba

kg/person

60.9

60.4

61.9

63.3

64.2

65.2

67.0

67.9

69.4

70.7

71.7

72.9

India

kg/person

17.7

17.8

18.3

18.7

19.1

19.1

19.3

19.6

19.7

20.0

20.2

20.4

Indonesia

kg/person

17.7

17.7

17.9

18.1

18.4

18.6

18.9

19.2

19.5

19.9

20.2

20.5

Russia

kg/person

45.2

47.5

51.6

51.5

53.1

53.6

55.3

55.8

56.9

58.0

59.0

60.1

South Africa

kg/person

36.3

36.4

37.0

37.6

38.2

38.8

39.4

40.0

40.6

41.2

41.8

42.4

Thailand

kg/person

32.9

36.5

37.0

37.4

37.8

38.2

38.6

39.0

39.4

39.8

40.2

40.6

Rest of World

kg/person

20.9

21.7

21.3

21.3

21.3

21.8

21.5

21.5

21.6

21.5

22.2

22.3

a) Beginning crop marketing year – see the Glossary of Terms for definitions. est.: Estimate. Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

176



ANNEX B

ANNEX B

Glossary of Terms Agenda 2000 A CAP reform package proposed by the European Commission in 1998. After a number of modifications, the European Union Heads of State agreed to a package of reforms in March 1999. Beginning in 2000, the package reduces price supports and increases direct payments for cereals and beef, while lowering oilseed direct payments (by harmonising them with cereals) and raising the milk quota. Dairy support price reductions and the introduction of new dairy direct payments are delayed until 2005, along with a second round of milk quota increase. The package is sometimes referred to as the “Berlin Agreement” to distinguish the agreement from the initial European Commission proposals.

AMAD Agricultural Market Access Database. A co-operative effort between Agriculture and Agrifood Canada, EU Commission-Agriculture Directorate-General, FAO, OECD, The World Bank, UNCTAD and the United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Data in the database is obtained from countries' schedules and notifications submitted to the WTO.

Avian influenza Avian influenza is an infectious disease of birds caused by type A strains of the influenza virus. The disease, which was first identified in Italy more than 100 years ago, occurs worldwide. The quarantining of infected farms and destruction of infected or potentially exposed flocks are standard control measures.

Atlantic beef market World beef market excluding the Pacific Rim beef trade.

Baseline The set of market projections used for the outlook analysis in this report and as a benchmark for the analysis of the impact of different economic and policy scenarios. A detailed description of the generation of the baseline is provided in the chapter on Methodology in this report.


177

ANNEX B

Berlin Agreement This is an alternative term used to describe the Agenda 2000 CAP reform package of the European Union agreed by European Union Heads of State in March 1999.

Biomass Biomass is defined as any plant matter used directly as fuel or converted into other forms before combustion. Included are wood, vegetal waste (including wood waste and crops used for energy production), animal materials/wastes and other solid biomass.

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) A fatal disease of the central nervous system of cattle, first identified in the United Kingdom in 1986. On 20 March 1996 the UK Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (SEAC) announced the discovery of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jacob Disease (vCJD), a fatal disease of the central nervous system in humans, which might be linked to consumption of beef affected by exposure to BSE.

Cereals Defined as wheat, coarse grains and rice.

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) The European Union’s agricultural policy, first defined in Article 39 of the Treaty of Rome signed in 1957.

CAP reform The EU Commission has published a Communication on the Mid-Term Review on the Common Agricultural Policy in July 2002, in January 2003 the Commission adopted a formal proposal. A formal decision on the “CAP reform – a long-term perspective for sustainable agriculture” was taken by the EU farm ministers. The reform includes far-reaching amendments of current policies, including further reductions in support prices, partly offset by direct payments, and a further decoupling of most direct payments from current production.

Coarse grains Defined as barley, maize, oats, sorghum and other coarse grains in all countries except Australia, where it includes triticale and in the European Union where it includes rye and other mixed grains.

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) A major provision of the United States' Food Security Act of 1985 and extended under the Food and Agriculture Conservation and Trade Act of 1990, the Food and Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996, and the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 is designed to reduce erosion on 40 to 45 million acres (16 to 18 million hectares) of farm land. Under the programme, producers who sign contracts agree to convert erodable crop land to approved conservation uses for ten years. Participating producers receive

178


ANNEX B

annual rental payments and cash or payment in kind to share up to 50% of the cost of establishing permanent vegetative cover. The CRP is part of the Environmental Conservation Acreage Reserve Program. The 1996 FAIR Act authorised a 36.4 million acre (14.7 million hectares) maximum under CRP, its 1995 level. The maximum area enrolled in the CRP was increased to 39.2 million acres in the 2002 FSRI Act.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) The heads of twelve sovereign states (except the Baltic states) have signed the Treaty on establishment of the Economic Union, in which they stressed that the Azerbaijan Republic, Republic of Armenia, Republic of Belarus, Republic of Georgia, Republic of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Republic of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Republic of Uzbekistan and Ukraine on equality basis established the Commonwealth of Independent States. OIS is used in the Outlook tables to refer to all these states excluding the Russian Federation.

Common Market Organisation (CMO) for sugar The common organisation of the sugar market (CMO) in the European Union was established in 1968 to ensure a fair income to community sugar producers and self-supply of the Community market. At present the CMO is governed by Council Regulation (EC) No. 1260/2001 (the basic regulation) which are applicable until 30 June 2006.

Crop year, coarse grains Refers to the crop marketing year beginning 1 April for Japan, 1 July for the European Union and New Zealand, 1 August for Canada and 1 October for Australia. The US crop year begins 1 June for barley and oats and 1 September for maize and sorghum.

Crop year, oilseeds Refers to the crop marketing year beginning 1 April for Japan, 1 July for the European Union and New Zealand, 1 August for Canada and 1 October for Australia. The US crop year begins 1 June for rapeseed, 1 September for soyabeans and for sunflower seed.

Crop year, rice Refers to the crop marketing year beginning 1 April for Japan, Australia, 1 August for the United States, 1 September for the European Union, 1 October for Mexico, 1 November for Korea and 1 January for other countries.

Crop year, sugar A common crop marketing year beginning 1 September and extending to 31 August, used by FO Licht, the primary data source for sugar supply and demand balances for the OECD’s World Sugar Model.


179

ANNEX B

Crop year, wheat Refers to the crop marketing year beginning 1 April for Japan, 1 June for the United States, 1 July for the European Union and New Zealand, 1 August for Canada and 1 October for Australia.

Decoupled payments Budgetary payments paid to eligible recipients who are not linked to current production of specific commodities or livestock numbers or the use of specific factors of production.

Direct payments Payments made directly by governments to producers.

Doha Development Agenda The current round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organisation that were initiated in November 2001, in Doha, Qatar

Domestic support Refers to the annual level of support, expressed in monetary terms, provided to agricultural production. It is one of the three pillars of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture targeted for reduction.

Double-zero agreement In the double zero agreements, the EU and the CEEC typically agree to offer duty free quotas for a specific quantity of a given agricultural product, while anything above the quota is subject to duty. Further the EU and the CEEC agree not to use any export subsidies for the given agricultural product. Every agreement has been concluded bilaterally between the EU and each CEEC country and that, consequently, the contents of the agreements vary from one case to another.

Ethanol A bio-fuel that can be used as a fuel substitute (hydrous ethanol) or a fuel extender (anhydrous ethanol) in mixes with petroleum, and which is produced from agricultural feed-stocks such as sugar cane and maize

Everything-But-Arms (EBA) The Everything-But-Arms (EBA) Initiative eliminates EU import tariffs for numerous goods, including agricultural products, from the least developed countries. The tariff elimination is scheduled in four steps from 2006/07 to 2009/10.

Export credits (with official support) Government financial support, direct financing, guarantees, insurance or interest rate support provided to foreign buyers to assist in the financing of the purchase of goods from national exporters.

180


ANNEX B

Export restitutions (refunds) EU export subsidies provided to cover the difference between internal prices and world market prices for particular commodities.

Export subsidies Subsidies given to traders to cover the difference between internal market prices and world market prices, such as for example the EU export restitutions and the US Export Enhancement Program (see above). Export subsidies are now subject to value and volume restrictions under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture.

FAIR Act, 1996 Officially known as the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996. This US legislation replaces the 1990 Farm Act and governs almost all aspects of food and agriculture policy during the period 1996-2002.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Foot and mouth disease is a highly contagious disease, which chiefly affects cloven-hoofed animal species (cattle, sheep, goats and pigs). Its symptoms are the appearance of vesicles (aphthae) on the animals’ mouths (with a consequent reduction in appetite) and feet. It is caused by a virus which may be found in the animals’ blood, saliva and milk. The virus is transmitted in a number of ways, via humans, insects, most meat products, urine and faeces, feed, water or soil. Although the mortality rate in adult animals from this disease is generally low and the disease presents no risk for humans, because it is highly contagious, infected animals in a given country are generally put down and other countries place an embargo on imports of live animals and fresh, chilled or frozen meat from the country of infection; in that case, only smoked, salted or dried meat and meat preserves may be imported from the country concerned. In addition, given the possibility of contagion between different species of cloven-hoofed animals, when foot and mouth disease breaks out in one species in a given country, exports of meat from all four types of animal are suspended.

FSRI Act, 2002 Officially known as the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002. This US farm legislation replaces the FAIR Act of 1996, covering a wide range of commodity programs and policies for US agriculture for the period 2002-07.

Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) HACCP describes a system of control for assuring food safety and provides a more structured and critical approach to the control of identified hazards than that achievable by traditional inspection and quality control procedures.

Industrial oilseeds A category of oilseed production in the European Union for industrial use (i.e. bio-fuels).


181

ANNEX B

Intervention purchases Purchases by the EC Commission of certain commodities to support internal market prices.

Intervention purchase price Price at which the European Commission will purchase produce to support internal market prices. It usually is below 100% of the intervention price, which is an annually decided policy price.

Intervention stocks Stocks held by national intervention agencies in the European Union as a result of intervention buying of commodities subject to market price support. Intervention stocks may be released onto the internal markets if internal prices exceed intervention prices; otherwise, they may be sold on the world market with the aid of export restitutions.

Inulin Inulin syrups are extracted from chicory through a process commercially developed in the 1980s. They usually contain 83 per cent fructose. Inulin syrup production in the European Union is covered by the sugar regime and subject to a production quota.

Isoglucose Isoglucose is a starch-based fructose sweetener, produced by the action of glucose isomerase enzyme on dextrose. This isomerisation process can be used to produce glucose/fructose blends containing up to 42% fructose. Application of a further process can raise the fructose content to 55%. Where the fructose content is 42%, isoglucose is equivalent in sweetness to sugar. Isoglucose production in the European Union is covered by the sugar regime and subject to a production quota.

Loan deficiency payments (United States) Loan deficiency payments are a type of support whereby, for wheat, feed grain, upland cotton, rice and oilseeds, a producer may agree to forgo loan eligibility and receive an output subsidy, the rate of payment of which is the amount by which the applicable county's loan rate exceeds the marketing loan repayment rate. Producers may elect to apply for this payment during the loan availability period on a quantity of the programme crop not exceeding their loan-eligible production. This, combined with marketing loan gains, represent the benefits made available to US farmers when commodity prices fall relative to loan rates.

Loan rate The commodity price at which the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) offers non-recourse loans to participating farmers. The crops covered by the programme are used as collateral for these loans. The loan rate serves as a floor price, with the effective level lying somewhat above the announced rate, for participating farmers in the sense that they can default on their loan and forfeit their crop to the CCC rather than sell it in the open market at a lower price.

182


ANNEX B

Luxembourg agreement A formal decision on further “CAP reform – a long-term perspective for sustainable agriculture” was taken by the EU Council of farm ministers meeting in Luxembourg on 26 June 2003. The reform includes far-reaching amendments of current policies, including further reductions in support prices, partly offset by direct payments and a further decoupling of most direct payments, such as the new single farm payment from current production. The different elements of the reform will enter into force in 2004 and 2005. A single farm payment will enter into force in 2005. If a member State needs a transitional period due to its specific agricultural conditions, it may apply the single farm payment from 2007 at the latest.

Market access Governed by provisions of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture which refer to concessions contained in the country schedules with respect to bindings and reductions of tariffs and to other minimum import commitments.

Marketing Assistance Loan Programme US loan programme, in operation since 1986 and designed to provide producers of certain crops with financial assistance when prices are low while avoiding a disadvantage of the traditional loan programme (see loan rate), i.e. the accumulation of government stocks that depress prices when disposed of. The programme effectively guarantees farmers a minimum price. Farmers can obtain payments in two ways. They can sell the crop and repay the loan at the posted county price (a USDA estimate of the local market price) and keep the difference known as “marketing gain”. They can also obtain a payment without taking out a loan – see loan deficiency payments.

Marketing year, oilseed meal Refers to the production year beginning 1 October for the United States.

Marketing year, oilseed oil Refers to the production year beginning 1 October for the United States.

MERCOSUR A multilateral agreement on trade, including agricultural trade between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The agreement was signed in 1991 and came into effect on 1 January 1995. Its main goal is to create a customs union between the four countries by 2006.

Market Price Support (MPS) Payment Indicator of the annual monetary value of gross transfers from consumers and taxpayers to agricultural producers arising from policy measures creating a gap between domestic market prices and border prices of a specific agricultural commodity, measured at the farm gate level. Conditional on the production of a specific commodity, MPS includes the transfer to producers associated with both production for domestic use and exports, and is


183

ANNEX B

measured by the price gap applied to current production. The MPS is net of financial contributions from individual producers through producer levies on sales of the specific commodity or penalties for not respecting regulations such as production quotas (Price levies), and in the case of livestock production is net of the market price support on domestically produced coarse grains and oilseeds used as animal feed (Excess feed cost).

Mid-Term Review See Luxembourg agreement on CAP reform.

Milk quota scheme A supply control measure to limit the volume of milk produced or supplied. Quantities up to a specified quota amount benefit from full market price support. Over-quota volumes may be penalised by a levy (as in the European Union, where the “super levy” is 115% of the target price) or may receive a lower price. Allocations are usually fixed at individual producer level. Other features, including arrangements for quota reallocation, differ according to scheme.

Modulation A partial transfer of support from the first (support to agriculture) to the second pillar (support to other rural activities) of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). With the latest reform of the CAP, modulation was made compulsory, resulting in a gradual reduction of payments directly to farmers with the aim of boosting rural development.

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) A trilateral agreement on trade, including agricultural trade, between Canada, Mexico and the United States, phasing out tariffs and revising other trade rules between the three countries over a 15-year period. The agreement was signed in December 1992 and came into effect on 1 January 1994.

Oilseed meal Defined as rapeseed meal (canola), soyabean meal, and sunflower meal in all countries, except in Japan where it excludes sunflower meal.

Oilseeds Defined as rapeseed (canola), soyabeans, and sunflower seed in all countries, except in Japan where it excludes sunflower seed.

Over Thirty Months Scheme (OTMS) The purpose of the Scheme is to provide cattle producers with an alternative market for cattle aged over thirty months which have come to the end of their productive lives and can no longer be entered into the human or animal food chain as a result of the Over Thirty Month Rule. The OTM Rule bans meat from most cattle aged over 30 months at slaughter from being sold for human consumption. This is to remove older animals, which are more likely to have developed a significant amount of BSE agent in any tissue, from the human food chain. It applies equally to home-produced and imported meat.

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Pacific beef market Beef trade between countries in the Pacific Rim where foot and mouth disease is not endemic.

PROCAMPO A programme of direct support to farmers in Mexico. It provides for direct payments per hectare on a historical basis.

Producer Support Estimate (PSE) Indicator of the annual monetary value of gross transfers from consumers and taxpayers to agricultural producers, measured at farm gate level, arising from policy measure, regardless of their nature, objectives or impacts on farm production or income. The PSE measure support arising from policies targeted to agriculture relative to a situation without such policies, i.e. when producers are subject only to general policies (including economic, social, environmental and tax policies) of the country. The PSE is a gross notion implying that any costs associated with those policies and incurred by individual producers are not deducted. It is also a nominal assistance notion meaning that increased costs associated with import duties on inputs are not deducted. But it is an indicator net of producer contributions to help finance the policy measure (e.g. producer levies) providing a given transfer to producers. The PSE includes implicit and explicit payments. The percentage PSE is the ration of the PSE to the value of total gross farm receipts, measured by the value of total production (at farm gate prices), plus budgetary support. The nomenclature and definitions of this indicator replaced the former Producer Subsidy Equivalent in 1999.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are the rates of currency conversion that eliminate the differences in price levels between countries. The PPPs are given in national currency units per US dollar.

Recourse loan programme Programme to be implemented under the US FAIR Act of 1996 for butter, non-fat dry milk and cheese after 1999 in which loans must be repaid with interest to processors to assist them in the management of dairy product inventories.

Scenario A model-generated set of market projections based on alternative assumptions than those used in the baseline. Used to provide quantitative information on the impact of changes in assumptions on the outlook.

Set-aside programme European Union programme for cereal, oilseed and protein crops that both requires and allows producers to set-aside a portion of their historical base acreage from current production. Mandatory set-aside rates for commercial producers are set at 10% until 2006.


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Single Farm Payment With the 2003 CAP reform, the EU introduced a farm-based payment largely independent of current production decisions and market developments, but based on the level of former payments received by farmers. To facilitate land transfers, entitlements are calculated by dividing the reference amount of payment by the number of eligible hectares (incl. forage area) in the reference year. Farmers receiving the new SFP are obliged to keep their land in good agricultural and environmental condition and have the flexibility to produce any commodity on their land except fruits, vegetables and table potatoes.

SPS Agreement WTO Agreement on Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary measures, including standards used to protect human, animal or plant life and health.

Special Preferential Sugar (SPS) An agreement for six years to 2006 under which certain quantities of raw sugar for processing can be imported into the EU from the group of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in addition to that covered by the Sugar Protocol. Under the sugar terms of the Everything But Arms initiative, import quota arrangements apply to sugar imports from LDC countries over a transition period from 2006 to 2009. During this period, increasing EBA sugar imports are directly offset by reduced SPS imports until 2009 when free or unrestricted sugar trade from LDC countries to the EU is to apply.

Sugar Protocol (SP) A Protocol (SP) covering 19 signatory countries within the group of 77 African, Caribbean and Pacific countries and India and representing the largest volume of sugar imported under a tariff rate quota by the European Union from the ACP countries under preferential access arrangements of zero in-quota duty. Under this protocol, the EU has a nonreciprocal obligation to the signatory countries to purchase a fixed amount of ACP raw cane sugar at the EU intervention price for sugar.

Support price Prices fixed by government policy makers in order to determine, directly or indirectly, domestic market or producer prices. All administered price schemes set a minimum guaranteed support price or a target price for the commodity, which is maintained by associated policy measures, such as quantitative restrictions on production and imports; taxes, levies and tariffs on imports; export subsidies; and public stockholding.

Tariff-rate quota (TRQ) Resulted from the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture. Certain countries agreed to provide minimum import opportunities for products previously protected by non-tariff barriers. This import system established a quota and a two-tier tariff regime for affected commodities. Imports within the quota enter at a lower (in-quota) tariff rate while a higher (out-of-quota) tariff rate is used for imports above the concessionary access level.

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Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) The terms of the URAA are contained in the section entitled the “Agreement on Agriculture” of the Final Act Embodying the Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. This text contains commitments in the areas of market access, domestic support (see AMS), and export subsidies, and general provisions concerning monitoring and continuation. In addition, each country’s schedule is an integral part of its contractual commitment under the URAA. There is a separate agreement entitled the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary Measures. This agreement seeks establishing a multilateral framework of rules and disciplines to guide the adoption, development and the enforcement of sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures in order to minimise their negative effects on trade. See also Phyto-sanitary regulations and Sanitary regulations.

Vegetable oil Defined as rapeseed oil (canola), soyabean oil, sunflower seed oil and palm oil, except in Japan where it excludes sunflower seed oil.

WTO World Trade Organisation created by the Uruguay Round agreement.


187

OECD PUBLICATIONS, 2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16 PRINTED IN FRANCE (51 2005 06 1 P) ISBN 92-64-01018-1 – No. 54035 2005

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2005-2014 For the first time, the Agricultural Outlook has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and thus draws on the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations. This annual publication analyses world commodity market trends and long-run prospects for the main agricultural products. It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies. Each edition highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the agricultural outlook. In this edition, the projections have been extended to cover a larger number of developing countries, including for the first time India and South Africa, in addition to Argentina, Brazil, China and Russia. This eleventh edition of the Agricultural Outlook provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on medium-term projections that extend to 2014 for production, consumption, trade and prices of included commodities. The projections presented in the report are based on specific assumptions regarding macroeconomic conditions, agricultural and trade policies and average weather conditions, and thus are one representative scenario for agricultural markets over the next decade. World agricultural production is projected to continue to grow to 2014 but at a slower pace than in the last decade. Broad-based economic growth in both OECD and non-member economies, and moderate population growth will lead to higher per capita incomes and consumption gains world-wide, but particularly in developing countries. Rising demand will provide the foundation for an increase in agricultural trade over the projection period. However, competition in global commodity markets is expected to intensify as production expands in many countries.

The full text of this book is available on line via these links: http://new.sourceoecd.org/agriculture/9264010181 http://new.sourceoecd.org/industrytrade/9264010181 Those with access to all OECD books on line should use this link: http://new.sourceoecd.org/9264010181 SourceOECD is the OECD's online library of books, periodicals and statistical databases. For more information about this award-winning service and free trials ask your librarian, or write to us at [email protected].

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ISBN 92-64-01018-1 51 2005 06 1 P

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