ROYAL GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY with IBG
GLOBAL WARMING WHAT DO I CARE? A Symposium held at Rheged, Penrith, Cumbria Saturday 31 March 2007
Summary Statement Abstract The GLOBAL WARMING WHAT DO I CARE? symposium examined the potential effects of climate change impact on NW England and SW Scotland and considered actions that could be taken in response. It considered the latest global understanding of climate change and its likely regional consequences by looking at the possible impacts it might have on biodiversity, the water cycle, sea level and agricultural systems. The extent to which climate change affects and is affected by wider driving forces and economic issues was also discussed. The symposium’s findings are published in this SUMMARY STATEMENT and a separate printed document, CONCLUSIONS AND ACTIONS. Background The Northwest Regional Committee of the RGS-IBG first proposed the symposium early in 2006 when ‘global warming’ was becoming the hottest topic on the planet. At the Society’s AGM in June of that year in London, one of the Fellows asked what the RGS-IBG was doing to address the issue of climate change. The international and national dimensions were being much talked about, often against the sometimes baffling counter arguments of those who thought, paradoxically, that the predictions were just so much ‘hot air’. Any regional picture was, at best, embryonic. A year later things have moved on and this conference was one of the first to examine in detail the potential for climate change and its possible regional impacts as well as discuss prospective responses to a range of future possibilities. The intervening change in emphases meant that for the purposes of this conference, the assertion that climate is changing could be taken as read and the process being accelerated by human activity assumed. Hokey Bennett-Jones and Stuart Hepburn were instrumental in setting events in motion and they were joined almost from the very beginning by Sir Martin Holdgate, who steered the whole process throughout and whose input was unstinting and very much valued. About the same time, Hokey’s brother, John Ingram, became involved and it is no exaggeration to say that his contribution in accessing the main speakers could not have been more pivotal. Moreover, during the presentations on the day of the conference, he performed miracles relieving speakers of their precious memory sticks and ensuring that their powerpoint presentations followed on seamlessly, one after the other. The symposium brought together an eclectic mix of scientists, including climate experts, meteorologists, ecologists and environmentalists, as well as economists, explorers, geographers, farmers, teachers, students, forward planners and decision-makers, and was held at Rheged Centre on Saturday 31 March 2007. It was seen as an opportunity for locals living in NW England and SW Scotland to begin to communicate amongst themselves and, so, better understand climate change, its potential impacts on their region and what actions they could take, if any, to militate against possible effects. It was also a chance for lay people and scientists to mingle, obliging the latter to consider effective ways of communicating ideas not as easily understood or readily taken on board by those outside their sphere. A glossary of definitions, together with extracts from the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis, the Stern Review, The Economics of Climate Change (December 2006), and a New Scientist article, Instant Expert: Climate Change (September 2006) were handed to symposium delegates.
1
Aims of the Symposium • to examine the potential impacts of climate change on north-west England and southwest Scotland • to consider the actions that could be taken in response. In addressing these aims the conference ranged widely and recognised that climate change has to be considered in context rather than in isolation. Because it will affect almost everything that we do we have to respond by adjusting almost everything that we do. Presentations • Latest understanding of climate change and its likely regional impact Professor Brian Hoskins emphasised that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal. All the indicators point the same way, and the record of past temperature show that today’s climate is significantly warmer than at any time in the past thousand years. Projections into the future depend on models and scenarios that agree to a remarkable degree. Between now and 2030 the warming process will be hardly affected by anything the world community now does, because of the inertia of the system. But beyond then – up to the end of the century – the trend can be hugely affected by human actions. Our region, on the north-west fringe of Europe, is on the edge of a continental mass that is expected to warm very significantly, at a rate faster than the neighbouring ocean. It seems likely that in general wet areas will get wetter and dry areas drier. The Mediterranean area will have hotter summers and less rainfall than now. Just what happens in our area will depend greatly on the interplay between land and sea, and we still lack models that give a reliable local picture. The best estimate is that our overall climate will be a few degrees warmer. We can expect winters with much less frost and snow and more precipitation. Our summers may be warmer and a bit drier on average. More of the precipitation in both winter and summer is expected to occur in heavy downpours that bring a risk of flooding. Sea level is expected to rise by 20 to 60 centimetres by the end of the century. Compared with many other regions, Britain is expected to experience relatively moderate change and our part of Britain may be less affected than south-east England. The uncertainties, however, make it essential that we plan for resilience, adjusting our actions as the climate evolves. In conclusion, there is high confidence that we are interfering with the climate system in a dangerous way, leading to global warming. Even so, there is uncertainty due to: our need for more knowledge about climate our need for better models and bigger computers our ignorance about what scenario is right natural variability of the atmosphere. Uncertainty is magnified on regional and local scales. Nevertheless, there are now indications of possible local changes in climate. • Possible impact of climate change on biodiversity Professor Richard Bardgett emphasised that there are also uncertainties in any ecological predictions. But it is probable that climate change will accentuate the loss of biological diversity – of ecosystems, species and genes – world-wide. Already this diversity is being threatened by human destruction of habitats and the invasion of wild lands by farming and human settlement. Climate change could threaten a further 15% to 37% of species. As the world warms, the plant growing season will get longer and the ranges of plants and animals will shift pole-wards and upwards. Prediction is difficult because so many factors interact, but in our region the key changes are likely to be, first, a northward and upward movement of species, well illustrated by butterflies, in which we will gain species from the south but lose a smaller number characteristic of northern regions. Second, and linked, the areas occupied by species and ecosystems characteristic of high mountains will diminish and some arctic-alpine plants and animals will go altogether. Third, there is a risk that the amount of carbon stored in our upland peat mires and organic soils will decline, because warming and drying of the ground accelerates oxidation – and this, of course, adds to the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and aggravates the greenhouse effect. There is more carbon in organic and peat soils than in forests, and conserving these sinks will be particularly important. In conclusion, climate change will substantially modify the biodiversity and function of ecosystems effects will be most pronounced in cold places, such as northern England and Scotland
2
we need to better understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and carbon storage. Possible impact of climate change on the water cycle and sea level Dr Simon Dadson, speaking on behalf also of Dr Nick Reynard, joined the other speakers in emphasising uncertainty – in this case of river flow, which is difficult to predict. British rainfall records between 1766 and 1997 suggest that there has been no overall trend in precipitation. However, if winter and summer rainfall are separated, the former has clearly increased and the latter declined. Flood records indicate that recent events are not exceptional, although floods today may affect more people than a flood of the same magnitude years ago because development has encroached onto flood plains. There is also evidence that river flows have become higher in the north and west. Modelling of such flow is now well developed and can link flows to precipitation, and again there are pointers towards particular risk in the northwest. Policy resilience is clearly needed, and it is obviously foolish to erode further the capacity of flood plains to receive short-term peaks in water flow. • Possible impact of climate change on agricultural systems Dr Adrian Newton, like Professor Bardgett, emphasised that a longer growing season, with a longer period of warm soil, will have significant effects. Looking world-wide, areas like Arctic Russia, Canada and northern Europe (including northern Britain) may gain agricultural potential while southern Europe and Asia lose. But the situation is complex, for there are many interacting pressures on the environment and they are changing in different ways. If snow cover and frost decline and the growing season expands, first cuts of grass can be made earlier and last cuts later. But the increased winter rains may hamper field operations sowing, cultivating, spraying, fertiliser applications, etc - because of waterlogged ground, more prone to poaching. Harvesting, on the other hand, might prove easier in the drier parts of the year. Plant roots will also be affected by soil water regime and wind stress, which could increase. The pattern of growth of crops will alter - and if there are no marked winter cold spells to hold back growth, ripening may be less synchronous, for example in soft fruits, making mechanised harvesting of a uniform product more difficult. The longer growing season in pastures will in theory allow livestock to remain outside longer - but again, winter wet will bring the risk of greater soil damage through poaching. Pests and diseases may also flourish in a warmer climate with no significant winter cold spells. The overall point is that agriculture is affected by many factors, that a longer growing season is not an unmixed blessing, and that as in other sectors of activity resilience and adaptability will be essential. Given that projected climate change for northern Britain is for warmer and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters with less snow, and more extreme and variable rainfall and temperature events, carbon dioxide and ultra violet radiation levels will also be greater. These changes will affect crop production and quality, disease susceptibility and resource (water, nutrients and radiation) acquisition and distribution by plants. Pragmatically, more extreme and variable weather, and changes in winter precipitation, will mean agronomic and cropping pattern changes too. The requirement for more resilient / adaptable crop genotypes with durable resistance coupled with functionally resilient soil and crop environments is, therefore, paramount. • Wider driving forces Sir Martin Holdgate emphasised that our choices and actions here are bound to be influenced by what happens far away, in regions more severely affected by climate change. North-west England and south-west Scotland may escape fairly lightly, retaining a temperate and wellwatered environment, but if there is a large movement of environmental refugees from areas suffering a harsher change we may receive part of the influx. If areas now exporting food become less productive, areas like ours that retain their fertility may come under pressure to maximise production. There may be no scope for ‘set aside’ in the European Union. We may also come under pressure to grow energy crops and supply water to drier regions. Our local policies will need to take account of these large-scale events. • Economic Issues Lord Chorley concentrated on the Lake District where the dominant economic activity is tourism. This in turn depended, he suggested, on two factors, the natural topography and the traditional farming in the dales. It was hard to predict the future of farming which for many years had been uneconomic. Nevertheless he thought, on balance, that farming and, therefore, tourism would survive if the regional forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change turned out to be right. The real problem for NW England and SW Scotland, he thought, would be different: the danger of population migration from abroad. This was
3
already a major international issue and with climate change it would be accentuated. We would not be able to insulate ourselves and the question would be whether the Lake District had the ‘carrying capacity’ to absorb more people while retaining it attractiveness. Turning briefly to the Stern Report, he said the important message was that we should start now on measures to mitigate climate change. Adaptation, while essential, was only part of the answer. Both were essential. Stern’s critics, who perhaps had the better of the technical argument, by emphasising adaptation as being more efficient, missed the point. This was not a technical, economic investment issue; it was about survival and stewardship. We should spend now, on a ‘what we can afford’ basis, on mitigating measures. Workshops Summaries The workshops were deliberately given overlapping mandates, and we expected that some would propose different, and even contradictory, responses. In practice there was a considerable degree of harmony – at least when the raw debate became filtered through the rapporteurs. • Environment The environment workshops tackled the interlinked topics of flora and fauna, upland land use and farming as well as aspects of rural life and tourism. Health issues were also considered. How would these be affected by climate change in our region and how should we adapt? 1 Uplands There was agreement that upland habitats will inevitably change as warming shifts the zones of tolerance of individual species upwards. Human choices will be influenced by interlinked considerations of farming, tourism and the wider public good. Farming economics may improve if the uplands become more productive, but what farmers do will continue to be greatly affected by their role in creating a landscape attractive to tourists, and in providing for visitors as part of the diversification of farm businesses. Hill farming will also continue to depend on subsidy, and this in turn will continue to be justified by public good. But what constitutes that public good? Is it the maintenance of a cherished cultural landscape? If so, what features will determine the level of support? The landscape will continue to be a mosaic of heathlands, grasslands and woodlands, but this pattern will change – in ways difficult to predict when the time horizon extends beyond 2050. The debate about policies for the uplands will continue regardless of climate change, but climate change will add importance to resilience and adaptability. 2 Nature Biodiversity will be affected in both semi-natural and managed landscapes. Wetlands may expand due to the wetter winters and to deliberate policy to conserve carbon sinks, but montane heaths are likely to decline and salt marshes may be lost to rising sea level. Woodlands are likely to be slow to adapt, and specialist species will come under pressure. All habitats and species will be affected to some extent, and in many ways. Decisions will be needed on what to manage, and what for. Habitat networks may be needed to aid relocation of species. But should nature be managed for tourism, sustaining the landscapes people want to visit? If biofuels are grown, their effects on biodiversity will need evaluation. Nature conservation is likely to benefit if grazing pressures are reduced and nitrogen inputs controlled – and incentives will be needed to promote good management. Ecosystems need to be supported because of the services they provide, as a public good. Again, climate change is best considered as an overlay, affecting a public debate about biodiversity policy that is going on anyway. Maybe the regional Biodiversity Action Plans should be reviewed with this in mind? 3 Farming and Health Farming should benefit from its location in a region that may not suffer too much from climate change. Soil management is likely to be a key in future. Carbon sinks need to be conserved by blocking grips in upland and lowland peat mires. There may be an interest in new crops, including energy crops, but there is unlikely to be enough land for a substantial investment in the latter. The priority is likely to be production of food for people and the maintenance of livestock. Climate change may make some traditional land management systems harder to maintain in future, for example because of soil poaching in wetter winters. Tourism is another factor: people visit the region to see a landscape maintained by low-intensity land use. Turning to the much-publicised question of disease, the workshop was not deeply concerned over contagions but considered that vector-borne diseases may be of increasing concern in a
4
warmer climate. There needs to be education and information about climate change as it affects farming and land use, and about how farming methods may need to adapt. Once again, consideration of climate change will re-tune a debate that is proceeding anyway, but because climate change has gripped popular imagination it may be a way of re-involving people in the wider discussion of land use priorities. • Economy and Planning The economy and planning workshops looked variously at rural and urban communities and tourism as well as considering various agricultural and migration issues. 4 Rural Communities and Tourism Rural communities and tourism were discussed together, in one large and lively group. Members likened their situation to a lookout in the crow’s nest of a ship, who sees a storm approaching and has to judge how severe it is likely to be and convince those on deck to take appropriate action. The severity of the climate change storm will depend in part on how well people are persuaded to prepare for it. But what changes should be prepared for? Our region may be relatively favoured, so long as its resources are not over-stressed by environmental refugees, whose influx would need to be managed. Farming and tourism are likely to remain the dominant socio-economic activities in future, and farming may even benefit (though there is concern that ruminant animals may be incriminated as a source of methane, a more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide). Tourism should benefit if the summers are hotter and drier, and if foreign travel becomes less attractive. However, if summers are stormier that could work the other way. The central goal has to be the maintenance of sustainable communities in which farming, tourism and other activities flourish. The workshop emphasised that ‘technofix’ solutions to the problem of climate change were unlikely to suffice on their own. Fundamental changes in global policy were needed, so that overall change was kept at the lower end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change spectra. Adaptation will be no good without mitigation and communities need to take the initiative (as was happening at State level in the USA) without waiting for Governments. But people should keep up the pressure on national politicians, demanding that the United Kingdom led in international action to avert climate change, especially through preventing emissions of greenhouse gases. They should campaign for both mitigation and adaptation as a foundation for sustainable communities. 5 Urban Communities Urban communities will also be affected by climate change, which will have environmental, social and economic consequences. The United Kingdom, and north-west England and south-west Scotland within it, will inevitably be affected by wider forces including those driving in- and out-migration. It is crucially important that the Stern Report’s proposals for substantial investment in mitigation now are adopted world-wide. At local level a wide range of choices is possible, but the test of sustainability is crucial. At the level of detail, both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ options for flood control and coastal defences are possible, depending on circumstances. Population growth needs to be managed through sensible planning strategies. Town expansion must be accompanied by protection against flooding. Village expansion in many areas will be limited by geography. Reservoirs must also be considered in a geographical and social context. In planning to manage an influx of people a distinction must be made between people in lower income groups, who will both provide and use community services, and wealthier people from further south who could aggravate social differentials by their impact on house prices. Planners need to build options into forward plans and be robust in implementing them. The essential thing is to have plans and controls that conserve the environmental values of the region and ensure that urban communities are developed sustainably. • Water The workshops concerned with water considered precipitation, run-off and consequent river flooding, the demand for water supplies (including in parts of the country likely to be affected by drought) and the linked issue of coastal floods and defences. 6 Flooding Flooding can be controlled in several ways, in both long and short term. Coastal barrages could be an energy source as well as giving protection against surges, and there has already been a study of a possible one in Morecambe Bay. If Cumbria becomes a unitary authority this might make it easier to plan for such a structure (although when last examined, the economics and environmental impact were unattractive). More generally, the workshop commended catchment management plans as a good approach, allowing the pattern of runoff to be predicted and flood plain development to be constrained. The workshop also
5
discussed the prospects for water export to a thirsty south-east and the water demand of local agriculture in dry summers. It is clear that many factors will affect the pattern of water flow and water use in a catchment, and research that will enhance problem-solving needs to be supported. 7 Coasts The workshop on coastal flooding reaffirmed that there is a great deal of knowledge and understanding in the region, as reflected in the group itself. The first essential is to avoid complacency, as even with the modest sea level rise predicted for the north west, surges are liable to cause flooding and erosion on low-lying soft coasts. Some places – including Barrow in Furness – may be particularly threatened by erosion and surges. Measures to protect one vulnerable coastal area can readily threaten another, for example by preventing the erosion of material that naturally replenishes beaches elsewhere. Joined-up thinking and planning are therefore needed, and an overall coastal zone strategy is essential. For each area of threatened coast there are three broad options: defence, managed retreat and abandonment. Education and information are needed, to enhance public understanding, and the young people who, when adult, will have to take the lead in coping with these problems need to be taught about them now. 8 Supply Demands for water supply are likely to change dramatically as the climate alters. The workshop considered a number of aspects of the subject. It first emphasised that demand needs to be controlled, and the best way of doing that is through insisting that all consumption is metered and that prices are high enough to make people value the water they use. The workshop considered that water movement from north to south, through pipes and transfers between river basins, was a likely consequence of climate change. Some would be used to re-charge aquifers. New reservoirs might be proposed, but these raise serious environmental issues especially in a cherished region like the Lake District. Desalination of sea water is possible but it has a high energy cost: it might be possible if linked to a nuclear power station. There are complex interfaces between water supply and the environment and the central need is to make sure water resources are properly used. People need to be made to pay a proper price for their water, and to adjust their life styles so as to use it more efficiently. Plenary Discussion The general discussion ranged widely. Several people demanded an action plan for the region, setting out how the adverse impact of climate change could be minimised. There is clearly a wealth of local knowledge and concern, which needs to be harnessed. It was pointed out that a Cumbria Futures Forum already exists, and this is engaging with communities, but such analyses need to be translated into action. Cooperation between the sectors of society is essential and education has a major role (the new University of Cumbria should be centrally involved). But action in the community needs to go beyond education, embracing personal relations, health care provision, and social and business dimensions. Several participants stressed the need for strategic planning and development control so that cities are not permitted to sprawl onto adjacent green fields (and, particularly, are prevented from encroaching on flood plains) and that the natural environment, the foundation of Cumbrian tourism, is safeguarded. It was pointed out that this would be obligatory for the Lake District, if this becomes a World Heritage site. It was emphasised that people need to change their behaviour and values, adapting their life styles to future conditions. Economists needed to change their valuation systems so that their models give proper weight to environmental assets. Economic incentives should be offered as a means of promoting adaptive change in farming, for example through the conservation of peat mires. General Conclusions and Recommendations • Climate change will be superimposed on a highly complex, dynamic environmental and socio-economic system and will affect almost all aspects of that system; • Climate change must not be treated as a subject in isolation, but as a major factor to be taken into account in the discussion of environmental, social and economic priorities; • Action to control the processes causing climate change is essential, but since some change in inevitable, adaptation is also crucial;
6
•
• • • • • • • •
Policies for environmental conservation, farming and other forms of land use, town and country planning, business, industry and commerce and social and community development must incorporate explicit measures for minimising the impact of climate change; There is still a considerable need for science, including a better understanding of environmental processes like the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and for better modelling and predictive capacity; Because prediction will never be perfect we also need to monitor change in the environment and to adjust policies accordingly; Major driving forces outside north-west England and south-west Scotland will inevitably influence the region, so that we need to monitor these also and be prepared for their impacts; The further we look into the century the greater the margins of uncertainty: it follows that there must be flexibility in long-term forward planning and a capacity to adjust as events unfold; There must be an Action Plan which adopts a coherent, ‘joined-up’ approach to climate change; All sectors of the community must be involved in the development of the Action Plan, which must take full account of local knowledge; Because of the open, participatory nature of plan development, people should feel ‘ownership’ of the product and confidence that its provisions are informed and equitable; Education and information are essential, not least because climate change will affect future generations even more than those now involved in decision-taking.
Chairman’s Closing Remarks In summarising the day’s deliberations, Sir Martin Holdgate stressed that climate change threatens to transform the systems of the natural world on which all human societies and human activities depend. He referred to the role of societies like the Royal Geographical Society (with The Institute of British Geographers) and the Royal Scottish Geographical Society and their capacity to serve as crucibles for debate about the world we inhabit, fusing knowledge and concern and casting them into sound foundations for action. He expressed the view that the role is surely an essential one as the world faces the greatest challenge collective humanity has ever posed to its environment. The need to bring climatologists, ecologists, agriculturalists, planners, social scientists, health professionals, engineers, teachers, students and politicians to the same table, and harness all the skills and insights of the wider community so as to ensure a sustainable future for the earth and all its peoples he regarded as absolutely crucial. Delegates • Speakers Prof Richard Bardgett Lord Chorley Dr Simon Dadson Sir Martin Holdgate Prof Brian Hoskins Dr David Munro Dr Adrian Newton The Earl of Selborne • Workshop Leaders The Very Rev Mark Boyling Mr Bob Cartwright Mr John Dunning Prof Mike Hornung Lord Inglewood
Soil Ecologist, Professor of Biological Sciences, University of Lancaster Economist, Past President, RGS-IBG Risk Analysis and Modelling Group, NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Environmental Scientist, Conservationist Royal Society Research Professor of Meteorology Director, Royal Scottish Geographical Society Co-ordinator, Climate Change Work, Scottish Crop Research Institute Environmentalist, Past President, RGS-IBG Dean, Carlisle Cathedral Lake District National Park Authority Farmer, Entrepreneur Soil Ecologist, Former Director, Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Merlewood Cumbrian Landowner, Former MEP
7
Mr John Ingram Mr Chris Loynes Sir Malcolm MacGregor Dr Kate Rawles Dr Hugh Reid Mr Jonathan Renouf Mr Paul Rose Ms Helen Shaw Mr Ian Soane • Correspondents Dr Richard Baker Dr Phil Barker Mrs Hokey Bennett-Jones Mr David Black Mr Steve Brace Dr Paul Bramley Dr Nigel Calvert Sir Gordon Conway Mr Nick Crane The Earl of Dalkeith Dr Rita Gardner Prof Andrew Goudie Prof Peter Gregory Mr Stuart Hepburn Miss Kari Herbert Dr Robert Hutchinson Dr Julie Ingram Mr William Ingram Dr Sarah Jones Lord Lindsay Dr Jolyon Medlock Dr Nick Reynard
Global Environmental Change and Food Systems, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Outdoor Philosophy Photographer Outdoor Philosophy Senior Veterinary Scientist, Moredun Research Institute, Scotland BBC Science Series Producer Broadcaster, Past Vice-President RGS-IBG International Centre for Uplands (ICU) Director, ICU, Cumbria Campus, University of Central Lancashire Plant Pathologist, Plant Health Group, Central Science Laboratory Climatologist, University of Lancaster Chair, Northwest Region, RGS-IBG Paragon Veterinary Group, Cumbria Head, Education & Outdoor Learning, RGS-IBG Chair, Moredun Scientific Public Health Doctor, Health Protection Agency Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Development, President, RGS-IBG Author, Broadcaster Scottish Landowner, Past President, RSGS Director & Secretary, RGS-IBG Professor of Geography, Oxford University Director, Scottish Crop Research Institute Council Member, RGS-IBG, Chair, Regions Committee Travel Writer, Polar Photographer Medical Entomologist, Institute of Ecosystems Science, University of Durham Countryside & Community Unit Research Fellow, Gloucester University Mathematician, Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office Programmes Officer, RGS-IBG President, RSGS Senior Scientist, Health Protection Agency, Centre for Emergency Preparedness & Response, Porton Down Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Chairman, Lake District Tourist Board, Broadcaster, Author Mountaineer, Helper of Himalayan People Impact Development Training Group Head, Veterinary Surveillance, Central Science Laboratory Geography Textbooks Author United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
Mr Eric Robson Mr Doug Scott Mr Jonathan Stevens Prof Mike Taylor Mr David Waugh Mr Richard Westaway • Delegates Conference comprised speakers, workshop leaders, correspondents and a broad mix of 150 interested individuals and representatives of organisations wishing to hear about the latest climate change impact estimates and comment on emerging regional issues through workshop discussions and a subsequent plenary session.
Sponsorship The event was funded by financial donations and contributions in kind from the following agencies, organisations and businesses. Our thanks are gratefully extended to each for their invaluable support. Special thanks go to DEFRA for its timely donation, to the Impact Training Group for their administrative support and to Rheged for their generous staging of the event. DEFRA Climate Change Programme UKCIP United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme
8
IMPACT
rheged NME ICU RSGS RGS-IBG
Development Training Group Discover Cumbria Centre National Mountaineering Exhibition International Centre for Uplands Royal Scottish Geographical Society Royal Geographical Society (with The Institute of British Geographers) Changing Climate: Changing Lives Project
Delegate Folders Each delegate was handed a ‘recycled’ information folder on registering. The contents of these folders were as follows: RGS-IBG GLOBAL WARMING WHAT DO I CARE? leaflet Information broadsheet – speakers, correspondents, organisational staffing, programme, keynote addresses abstracts, workshops, questions, literature list, art exhibitors, glossary, climate change reports extracts Join us Ordinary Membership What is geography? Who are we? What do we do? Flyer Bulletin Summer 2007 What’s on? DEFRA/UKCIP Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom – The UKCIP02 Briefing Report (April 2002) A changing climate for business – business planning for the impacts of climate change UKCIP A Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) for your community IMPACT Creating and Leading Sustainable Enterprises Community Action Learning LIFE IS A JOURNEY notebook + pen
The Royal Geographical Society (with The Institute of British Geographers) The RGS-IBG contributes insight to key social, economic and environmental challenges facing Britain and the world. It does this by bringing together the business, research, academic, educational, non-governmental and policy-making communities within a neutral and respected forum. Many of the issues currently placed high on government agendas have important geographical dimensions, and geographers, with their knowledge of both social and environmental processes are well placed to contribute to solutions. These areas include, for example, social exclusion, urban regeneration, sustainable development, cultural diversity, energy and water resources, environmental degradation and global change. This symposium aimed, through the keynote addresses, to increase public awareness of the issues for a non-specialist audience; through the workshops, to promote stimulating debate; through the plenary session, to offer knowledge sharing; and, through the event as a whole, to provide networking opportunity among the wider professional community. Informal discussion factored into the proceedings, encouraged focused high level debate for scientists, decision-makers and delegate members of the voting population and provided another mechanism to engage and inform those tasked with policy formulation and implementation. The purpose of this SUMMARY STATEMENT and CONCLUSIONS AND ACTIONS is to disseminate symposium findings to freelance champions of the environment, elected representatives of international, crown and non-crown national bodies, NGOs, regional and local government politicians and executive officers, policy makers and decision takers at all levels, key commercial players from multinationals to local business groups, education sector practitioners and academics, medical and veterinary sector authorities, the scientific and research community in general, political lobbyists and grassroots activists. Both publications can be downloaded from the RGS-IBG website under Our work/Policy & advocacy/Policy reports/Documents and a printed version of CONCLUSIONS AND ACTIONS is available from the Society on request. For further information please contact: Dr Sarah Jones E
[email protected] T 020 7591 3006
9
Royal Geographical Society with IBG 1 Kensington Gore London SW7 2AR T +44 (0)20 7591 3100 F +44 (0)20 7591 3001 E
[email protected] W www.rgs.org
10
ROYAL GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY with IBG
GLOBAL WARMING WHAT DO I CARE? A Symposium held at Rheged, Penrith, Cumbria Saturday 31 March 2007
Conclusions and Actions Unless stated otherwise, the responses specifically relate to NW England and SW Scotland. The broader picture is covered under the section headed Climate and some general observations are made under the section headed Economics and Planning. Apart from the opening responses in the Climate and Inland Flooding sections, observations and comments, estimates and projections are limited to the current century. Climate • Today’s climate is significantly warmer than at any time in the past thousand years. • Between now and 2030 the warming process will be hardly affected by anything the world community now does, because of the inertia of the system. • Beyond 2030 up to the end of the century the trend can be hugely affected by human actions. • On the north-west fringe of Europe it seems likely that wet areas will get wetter and dry areas drier. • In our area the best guess is that our overall climate will be a degree or a degree and a half warmer. • We can expect winters with much less frost and snow and perhaps 20% more precipitation, some of it in heavy downpours that bring a risk of flooding. • Our summers may be a bit warmer and a bit drier. • Britain will experience only moderate change and our part of Britain may be less affected than south-east England. Inland Flooding • British rainfall records between 1766 and 1997 suggest that there has been no overall trend in precipitation. However, if winter and summer rainfall are separated, the former has clearly increased and the latter declined. • River flows may increase by 20% and sea level rise by 20 to 30 centimetres by the end of the century. • Flood records indicate that recent events are not exceptional, although floods today may affect more people than a flood of the same magnitude years ago because development has encroached onto flood plains. • Town expansion must be accompanied by protection against flooding. • There is also evidence that river flows have become higher in the north and west. • Both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ options for flood control are possible, depending on circumstances. • Catchment management planning is a good approach, allowing the pattern of run-off to be predicted and flood plain development to be constrained. • Policy resilience is clearly needed, and it is obviously foolish to erode further the capacity of flood plains to receive short-term peaks in water flow. Coastal Change • Even with the modest sea level rise predicted for the north west, surges are liable to cause flooding and erosion on low-lying soft coasts. • Some places – including Barrow in Furness – may be particularly threatened by erosion and surges. • Measures to protect one vulnerable coastal area can readily threaten another, for example by preventing the erosion of material that naturally replenishes beaches elsewhere. • For each area of threatened coast there are three broad options: defence, managed retreat and abandonment. • Coastal barrages could be an energy source as well as giving protection against surges. • Both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ options for coastal defences are possible, depending on circumstances. • Joined-up thinking and planning are therefore needed, and an overall coastal zone strategy is essential. Water Supply • There is a central need to make sure water resources are properly used. • Reservoirs must be considered in a geographical and social context. • Demands for water supply are likely to change dramatically as the climate alters. • We may come under pressure to supply water to drier regions • Water movement from north to south, through pipes and transfers between river basins, is a likely consequence of climate change. • New reservoirs might be proposed, but these raise serious environmental issues especially in a cherished region like the Lake District.
1
• • •
Some would be used to re-charge aquifers. Desalination of sea water is possible but it has a high energy cost: it might be possible if linked to a nuclear power station. Demand needs to be controlled and the best way of doing that is through insisting that all consumption is metered and that prices are high enough to make people value the water they use.
Natural Environment • It is probable that climate change will accentuate the loss of biological diversity – of ecosystems, species and genes – world-wide. Already this diversity is being threatened by human destruction of habitats and the invasion of wild lands by farming and human settlement. • Climate change could threaten a further 15% to 37% of species. • As the world warms, the plant growing season will get longer and the ranges of plants and animals will shift pole-wards and upwards. • In our region one of the key changes is likely to be a northward and upward movement of species. • Biodiversity will be affected in both semi-natural and managed landscapes. • Wetlands may expand due to the wetter winters and to deliberate policy to conserve carbon sinks, but montane heaths are likely to decline and salt marshes may be lost to rising sea level. • Woodlands are likely to be slow to adapt, and specialist species will come under pressure. • Habitat networks may be needed to aid relocation of species. • Nature conservation is likely to benefit if grazing pressures are reduced and nitrogen inputs controlled – and incentives will be needed to promote good management. • Ecosystems need to be supported because of the services they provide, as a public good. Upland Management • The areas occupied by species and ecosystems characteristic of high mountains will diminish and some arctic-alpine plants and animals will go altogether. • There is a risk that the amount of carbon stored in our upland peat mires and organic soils will decline, • There is more carbon in organic and peat soils than in forests, and conserving these sinks will be particularly important. • Carbon sinks need to be conserved by blocking grips in upland and lowland peat mires. • Upland habitats will inevitably change as warming shifts the zones of tolerance of individual species upwards. • The landscape will continue to be a mosaic of heathlands, grasslands and woodlands, but this pattern will change – in ways difficult to predict when the time horizon extends beyond 2050. Agriculture • A longer growing season, with a longer period of warm soil, will have significant effects. • Northern Europe (including northern Britain) may gain agricultural potential while southern Europe and Asia lose. • If snow cover and frost decline and the growing season expands, first cuts of grass can be made earlier and last cuts later. • But the increased winter rains may hamper harvesting because of waterlogged ground, more prone to poaching. • Plant roots will also be affected by soil water regime and wind stress, which could increase. • The pattern of growth of crops will alter – and if there are no marked winter cold spells to hold back growth, ripening may be less synchronous, making mechanised harvesting of a uniform product more difficult. • The longer growing season in pastures will in theory allow livestock to remain outside longer – but winter wet will bring the risk of greater soil damage through poaching. • If areas now exporting food become less productive, areas like ours that retain their fertility may come under pressure to maximise production. There may be no scope for ‘set aside’ in the European Union. • There may be an interest in new crops, including energy crops, but there is unlikely to be enough land for a substantial investment in the latter. We may come under pressure to grow energy crops. • If biofuels are grown, their effects on biodiversity will need evaluation. Because the benefits of growing biofuels cannot automatically be assumed to be favourable, the carbon footprint energy balance needs to be assessed as well. • Hill farming will also continue to depend on subsidy, and this in turn will continue to be justified by public good. • Farming should benefit from its location in a region that will not suffer too much from climate change. • Soil management is likely to be a key in future. • The priority is likely to be production of food for people and the maintenance of livestock. • Climate change may make some traditional land management systems harder to maintain in future. • Agriculture is affected by many factors, a longer growing season is not an unmixed blessing, and resilience and adaptability will be essential. Tourism • Tourism should benefit if the summers are hotter and drier, and if foreign travel becomes less attractive. • Tourists visit the region to see a landscape maintained by low-intensity land use. • Farming economics may improve if the uplands become more productive, but what farmers do will continue to be greatly affected by their role in creating a landscape attractive to tourists, and in providing for visitors as part of the diversification of farm businesses. • Farming and tourism are likely to remain the dominant socio-economic activities in future, and farming may even benefit.
2
Economics and Planning • Climate change will be superimposed on a highly complex, dynamic environmental and socio-economic system and will affect almost all aspects of that system. • We should not think of our region as a socio-economic island. • Climate change must not be treated as a subject in isolation, but as a major factor to be taken into account in the discussion of environmental, social and economic priorities. • Action to control the processes causing climate change is essential, but since some change is inevitable, adaptation is also crucial. • Our choices and actions are bound to be influenced by what happens far away, in regions more severely affected by climate change. • Fundamental changes in global policy are needed, so that overall change is kept at the lower end of the IPCC spectrum. • People should keep up the pressure on national politicians, demanding that the United Kingdom take the lead in international action to avert climate change. • The Stern Report posed the question of how much money and effort we devote to mitigation, and how much to adaptation. • Adaptation will be no good without mitigation and communities need to take the initiative (as was happening at State level in the USA) without waiting for Governments. • Steps should be taken now, even at considerable cost, because of our duty to future generations. • Human choices will be influenced by interlinked considerations of farming, tourism and the wider public good. • The central goal has to be the maintenance of sustainable communities in which farming, tourism and other activities flourish. • Planners need to ensure that plans and controls conserve the environmental values of the region and ensure that urban communities are developed sustainably. • An action plan for the region, setting out how the adverse impact of climate change could be minimised and engaging communities in such a way that analyses are translated into action, is needed. • Strategic planning and development control should ensure that cities are not permitted to sprawl onto adjacent green fields (and, particularly, are prevented from encroaching on flood plains) and that the natural environment, the foundation of Cumbrian tourism, is safeguarded. • Economic incentives should be offered as a means of promoting adaptive change in farming, for example through the conservation of peat mires. • Policies for environmental conservation, farming and other forms of land use, town and country planning, business, industry and commerce and social and community development must incorporate explicit measures for minimising the impact of climate change. • The uncertainties, however, make it essential that we plan for resilience, adjusting our actions as the climate evolves. • Because climate change has gripped popular imagination it may be a way of re-involving people in the wider discussion of land use priorities. • The severity of the climate change storm will depend in part on how well people are persuaded to prepare for it. • Economists need to change their valuation systems so that their models give proper weight to environmental assets. Migration • North-west England and south-west Scotland will inevitably be affected by wider forces including those driving in- and out-migration. • The region may escape fairly lightly from climate change, retaining a temperate and well-watered environment, but if there is a large movement of environmental refugees from areas suffering a harsher change we may receive part of the influx. • Our region may be relatively favoured, so long as its resources are not over-stressed by environmental refugees, whose influx would need to be managed. • Population growth needs to be managed through sensible planning strategies. • In planning to manage an influx of people a distinction must be made between people in lower income groups, who will both provide and use community services, and well-to-do people from further south who may bring wealth but could aggravate social differentials by their impact on house prices. Health • Pests and diseases may flourish in a warmer climate with no significant winter cold spells. • Vector-borne diseases may be of increasing concern in a warmer climate. • Radical changes to local lifestyles and livelihoods may impact mental health • Local health services will need to be tuned to emerging issues and population changes Lifestyle • People need to change their behaviour and values, adapting their life styles to future conditions. • People need to be made to pay a proper price for their water, and to adjust their life styles so as to use it more efficiently.
3
Education • Education and information are needed, to enhance public understanding, • Young people, in particular, who, when adult, will have to take the lead in coping with these problems, need to be taught about them now. • Cooperation between the sectors of society is essential and education has a major, central role to play. • But action in the community has to go beyond education; embracing personal relations, health care provision, and social and business dimensions. • There needs to be education and information about climate change as it affects farming and land use, and about how farming methods may need to adapt. Technology • It is crucially important that the Stern Report’s proposals for immediate substantial investment in action to mitigate climate change are adopted world-wide. • ‘Technofix’ solutions to the problem of climate change are unlikely to suffice on their own. Research and Development • Prospects for water export to a thirsty south-east and the water demand of local agriculture in dry summers are affected by many factors, such as the pattern of water flow and water use in a catchment, and research that will enhance problem-solving needs to be supported. • There is still a considerable need for science, including a better understanding of environmental processes like the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and for better modelling and predictive capacity. • Because prediction will never be perfect we also need to monitor change in the environment and to adjust policies accordingly. • Major driving forces outside north-west England and south-west Scotland will inevitably influence our region, so that we need to monitor these also and be prepared for their impacts Future Considerations • The further we look into the century the greater the margins of uncertainty: it follows that there must be flexibility in long-term forward planning and a capacity to adjust as events unfold; • There must be an Action Plan which adopts a coherent, ‘joined-up’ approach to climate change; • All sectors of the community must be involved in the development of the Action Plan, which must take full account of local knowledge; • Because of the open, participatory nature of plan development people should feel ‘ownership’ of the product, and confidence that its provisions are informed and equitable; • Education and information are essential, not least because climate change will affect future generations even more than those now involved in decision-taking.
4
“Latest understanding of climate change and its likely regional impact” Professor Brian Hoskins Royal Society Research Professor of Meteorology
Estimates of Northern Hemisphere Temperature for the Past 1000 Years
IPCC (2007) Drawn by Tim Osborn using published data
Projections of Future Changes in Temperature
IPCC (2007)
Changes in Temperature Extremes
Average ∆T° Average ∆preip (%) Model agreement
A1B: 1980–1999 and 2080–2099
Regional examples of robust messages 1. Warming greater than global mean, greatest in winter in northern Europe, and greatest in summer in southern Europe 2. Annual precipitation is very likely to increase in most of northern Europe and decrease in most of the Mediterranean area. 3. Extremes will very likely increase in northern Europe. 4. The annual number of precipitation days is very likely to decrease in the Mediterranean area. 5. Risk of summer drought is likely to increase in central Europe and in the Mediterranean area.
IPCC (2007) projections of sea level rise
“Possible impact on biodiversity”
Professor Richard Bardgett Professor of Ecology, Lancaster University
Why is climate change research important? Threats to global biodiversity
12% birds, 23% mammals, 25% conifers, 32% amphibians threatened extinction. Climate change commit further 15-to-37% species to extinction within next 50 yrs
Invasions of new species
Homogenization of the Earth’s communities
Changes in ecosystem properties
Reduced biodiversity and loss of species impair ecosystem functions/services?
Global indicators climate change (1) Growing season lengthened 1-to-4 days per decade over last 40 yrs in northern hemisphere (snowmelt advanced ~ ½ day yr-1 since 1950’s) (2) Plant and animal ranges shifted polewards and up in elevation (e.g., Canadian tundra replaced at a rapid rate by boreal forests) (3) Earlier plant flowering, bird arrival, emergence of insects (e.g., average first flowering 385 British plants advanced by 4.5 days last decade)
Major uncertainties - impact of climate change on biodiversity (i) Biodiversity is complicated – controlled by myriad factors (ii) Biodiversity influenced by multiple global changes (land use, N deposition, invasive species , climate change) (iii) Multiple effects of climate change: direct (temp, precipitation, extreme events); indirect (fertilising effect elevated CO2)
KEY ISSUES FOR THE NORTH
1. Gains and loss of species 2. Alter fragile ecosystems of high conservation value high mountains 3. Feedbacks with the carbon cycle – the northern carbon store
Butterfly species richness in Britain 1970-1982
1995-1999 Number of species Excluded squares ≤ 15 15-25 > 25
Number of species/square 21.92 ± 0.37
23.59 ± 0.32
8 % increase
Threats to mountain biodiversity from global warming (i) Loss of available land area for cold-adapted species no escape routes from upward shift of lowland species (ii) Reduced snow cover affect insulation and nutrient cycles (iii) Amplify existing effects of grazing and nitrogen deposition
Costs of loosing mountain biodiversity Mountain biodiversity and Ecosystem services Plants as functional tools
NORTHERN CARBON STORE 30% Global Terrestrial Carbon in Peatland
Positive feedback
Warmer conditions
Atmospheric CO2
+ CO2 Source C
+ Activity soil decomposers
+ Decomposition organic matter
Sink-to-source
“Possible impact of climate change on the water cycle and sea level”
Dr Simon Dadsen, Speaking on behalf of Dr Nick Reynard
Annual Rainfall Totals - E&W England & W ales Annual Rainfa ll Totals 1300 1200 Millimetres
1100 1000 900 800 700 600 1766-1997
E & W Winter and Summer rainfall England & W ales Rainfall
500
Nov-A pr 10yr May-Oct 10yr
400
88
19
71
19
54
19
37
19
20
19
03
19
86
18
69
18
52
18
35
18
18
18
01
18
84
17
67
300 17
Millimetres
600
“Climate Change – Possible Impacts on Agricultural Systems”
Adrian Newton Scottish Crop Research Institute
Climate Change – Possible Impacts on Agricultural Systems Adrian Newton Scottish Crop Research Institute
Change in length of growing season in Scotland: 1961-2004
(Barnett et al., 2006)
310
270
E Scotland 250
N Scotland W Scotland
230
210
190
19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03
Growing Season Length (days)
290
Projected winners/losers in cereals production 2050
(IASA, 2002)
2020s
2050s
2080s
UK TEMPERATURE RISE by the 2080s predicted by the coupled carbon-cycle climate model (A2)
Low
Med-low
Med-high
High
Change in precipitation totals 1961 2004
Temperature change 1961-2004 (Barnett et al., 2006)
Change in snow and frost days in Scotland: 1961 - 2004
(Barnett et al., 2006)
Earlier Flowering 1978-2001
3 weeks early Snowdrop
Wild Daffodil
Winter aconite
2 weeks early Bluebell
Dog violet
Lesser celandine Courtesy: Prof. Fred Last, Longniddry
1 week early Broom
Wild cherry
Over the next 75 years, if gaseous emissions continue unabated, the climate of northern Britain is likely to become up to:
• • • • • •
3.5°C warmer in summer 50% drier in summer 40% wetter in winter 90% less snow 4 weeks earlier spring more extreme temperature and rainfall events • 90% higher CO2 levels • higher UV-B and reduced ozone
Climate Change – Possible Impacts on Agricultural Systems Implications for current agriculture: Drought/water-logging – effects on plant roots Wind, extreme and variable weather Pests and Diseases Changed crops and cropping patterns Æ operational problems – crop / rotation / agronomy How research will help create new opportunities: Durable pest and disease resistance and tolerance Flowering time – later to control to avoid late frost damage Flowering time – earlier to avoid summer drought Drought / stress tolerance: root biology… Reduced winter chill Æ erratic bud-break Æ uneven ripening New crops – biofuels etc Functionally resilient soils: carbon and nitrogen cycling
Climate Change – Possible Impacts on Agricultural Systems Grassland and livestock: Longer season (earlier start, later finish) Potential yields increase IF nitrogen and water not limiting Out-of-season use change – poaching on saturated soils Summer drought mean requirement for other fodder crops? Changes in weed, pest and disease problems – animal welfare issues
Climate Change – Possible Impacts on Agricultural Systems Arable crops: • Crop growth checked less by frost and snow
• Easier and earlier harvest and less drying costs • But weeds grow more too • Reduced pests and pathogens kill by sharp frosts • Pesticides and herbicides break down faster – more needed • More flooding and waterlogging in winter – erosion • More wind and rain – operational difficulties • Build in resilience – e.g. variety mixtures
Scenarios: •
CO2 increase may increase plant yield, but associated temperature increase may counteract this. Increased water usage / stress may further limit yield. Affect quality.
•
Pathogens and pests can adapt faster than plants (population size and mobility)
•
Pests may increase disproportionately, e.g. Myzus persicae 2 Æ 8 aphids/leaf 350 cf 700 ppm CO2 AND less parasitised
•
Winter cereals – sow late to avoid excess winter growth, early spring growth, early harvest, more N and water required, more or different pests and diseases
•
Potatoes – plant earlier, earlier blight and more aphid and wireworm problems, double cropping?
•
Forage maize – further north, western corn rootworm problem, Fusarium Æ BIG disease problems for subsequent cereal crops
Diversity in wild potatoes:
Extensive: diverse populations of cultivated potatoes which will capture much of the diversity found in Andean potatoes
…and includes types adapted to very dry conditions
Solanum lignicaule
New Cereal Diseases problems Brown Rust
2°C = x18 increase in winter barley
Ramularia
Stress-induced symptom expression
New Disease - Erwinia chrysanthemi A new threat to potato production in Scotland (BPC review 2007). Its arrival from continental Europe - linked to climate change? Broad spectrum resistance to this and other warm climate pathogens required e.g. Ralstonia solanacearum (brown rot)
Increased WRKY expression limits disease
Genomics: identified a potato defence gene called “WRKY”.
Transgenic plants expressing high levels of WRKY show full resistance to the closely related pathogen Erwinia carotovora.
Desiree control
Transgenic WRKY plant
WRKY resistance and the breeding programme WRKY expression level
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
phureja S. phureja
Estima
es tim a con
Desiree
des untr
WRKY appears to be a major component of resistance expressed by S. phureja – a cultivar used in the SCRI breeding programme May give resistance to E. chrysanthemi, Ralstonia and other bacterial pathogens
Better exploitation of the CPC Neo-tuberosum: adapted diverse potato germplasm
Linkage disequilibrium explained Association genetics: a tool for assessing collections allele tending to be associated with surrounding sequence
* mutation event
crossing and recombination
*
* *
Opportunities for New Crops
Summary • Growing season getting longer • Climate getting more variable • Stresses CHANGING – pests, pathogens, water, temperature, wind etc • Crops CAN be adapted to respond • Agricultural system needs to change to adapt • Opportunities for new crops, not just biofuels
