Sustainable Development Research Advances

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH ADVANCES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH ADVANCES BARTON A. LARSON EDITOR Nova Sc...

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH ADVANCES

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH ADVANCES

BARTON A. LARSON EDITOR

Nova Science Publishers, Inc. New York

Copyright © 2007 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. (2nd Printing)

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic, tape, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise without the written permission of the Publisher. For permission to use material from this book please contact us: Telephone 631-231-7269; Fax 631-231-8175 Web Site: http://www.novapublishers.com NOTICE TO THE READER The Publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this book, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information contained in this book. The Publisher shall not be liable for any special, consequential, or exemplary damages resulting, in whole or in part, from the readers’ use of, or reliance upon, this material. Any parts of this book based on government reports are so indicated and copyright is claimed for those parts to the extent applicable to compilations of such works. Independent verification should be sought for any data, advice or recommendations contained in this book. In addition, no responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property arising from any methods, products, instructions, ideas or otherwise contained in this publication. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information with regard to the subject matter covered herein. It is sold with the clear understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering legal or any other professional services. If legal or any other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent person should be sought. FROM A DECLARATION OF PARTICIPANTS JOINTLY ADOPTED BY A COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION AND A COMMITTEE OF PUBLISHERS. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA Sustainable development research advances / Barton A. Larson (editor). p. cm. Includes index. ISBN-13: 978-1-60692-872-1 1. Sustainable development. I. Larson, Barton A. HC79.E5S8648 2007 338.9'27--dc22 2007024331

Published by Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

New York

CONTENTS Preface

vii

Expert Commentary: From Government to Governance in Spatial Planning and Information Science Walter T. de Vries

1

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Sustainable Energy Development and Climate Change Mitigation Dalia Streimikiene and Remigijus Čiegis

7

A Resource Dependency Perspective on the Sustainable Development of Local Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI’s) Walter T. De Vries

69

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone: The Example of the Humber Estuary Roger K. A. Morris and Peter Barham Sustainable Development in Oil Pipelines Industry Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process Prasanta Kumar Dey

109

139

Chapter 5

Sustainable Development of the Space Environment Mark Williamson

167

Chapter 6

Energy, Water and Sustainable Development Abdeen Mustafa Omer

189

Chapter 7

Representations and Behaviours of Farmers with Regard to Sustainable Development: A Psycho-environmental Approach Elisabeth Michel-Guillou and Karine Weiss

Chapter 8

Advances in Laser Remote Sensing of Forests Michael A. Wulder, Christopher W. Bater, Nicholas C. Coops, Yasumasa Hirata, and Tatsuo Sweda

207 223

vi Chapter 9

Chapter 10

Index

Contents Sustainable Development in Oil Extraction: The Rights of Future Generations Sabry A. Abdel Sabour Formulation and Development of Policy for Sustainable Development: Using the Life Cycle Approach for Integration of Environmental Considerations Sumiani Yusoff

235

253 267

PREFACE Sustainable development has been defined as balancing the fulfillment of human needs with the protection of the Natural environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but in the indefinite future. The term was used by the Brundtland Commission which coined what has become the most often-quoted definition of sustainable development as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own need." The field of sustainable development can be conceptually broken into four constituent parts: environmental sustainability, economic sustainability, social sustainability and political sustainability. This new book presents the latest research in the field. Chapter 1 - The objective of the article is to analyse the relationship between climate change mitigation policies and other policies targeting sustainable energy development. The analysis of sustainable energy indicators (social, economic and environmental) performed in the article indicates that Greenhouse (GHG) emissions in energy sector can be considered as a final targeted indicator of sustainable energy development because all other sustainable energy indicators and all response actions on these indicators in the end will have impact on GHG emission reduction via the chain of mutual impacts in the framework of interlinked sustainable energy indicators. The social, economic and environmental targets of sustainable energy development are interrelated and can be addressed using the framework of indicators connecting indicators with policies and measures aiming to achieve specific targets established by these indicators. The final indicator in the chain of sustainable energy indicators is GHG emission. The article seeks to show how other policies promoting sustainable energy development interact with each other and with climate change mitigation policies. From the other hand all GHG mitigation policies have impact on other sustainable energy development targets and should be assessed according these targets: energy security, energy affordability, use of renewable energy sources, improvement of energy efficiency, impact on job markets, technological innovations etc. Therefore Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis should be applied for the selection of the most suitable climate change mitigation instruments according sustainable energy development targets. Another important issue addressed in the article is discussion of possible international post-Kyoto GHG mitigation architectures and evaluation of their impact on sustainable energy development targets. The main message of the article is advocate for harmonized policies targeting sustainable energy development and climate change mitigation. The Baltic States case study was developed to illustrate the main statements of the article relevant to energy policies impact on GHG

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emission reduction and Lithuanian case study was developed for the evaluation of climate change mitigation instruments according sustainable energy development targets. Chapter 2 - In the discussion of how decentralization of government authorities and increased autonomy of local governments, can foster sustainable development, the role of information provision and exchange between stakeholders is important. Sustainable information sources for local governments depend to a large extent on spatial information. Yet, the conceptualization of spatial information provision and exchange, as provided by the ontologies of Spatial Data Infrastuctures (SDIs) are still insufficiently linked to sustainable development. Current SDI literature is offering two dominant ontologies on how national and local SDIs develop over time, and how they relate to each other: one which is posing that the local SDIs are inter-related and inter-dependent building blocks, often in hierarchical relations, leading to or derived from national SDIs (hierarchical, umbrella view). The other view is that local SDIs are mostly rooted in local socio-technical networks, which are often splintered and fragmented, and which may not necessarily have hierarchical inter-dependency relations (fragmentation view). These different views have different implications on how to sustain local SDIs. In the logic of the hierarchical view, fostering local SDI development can only be done by mirroring after national SDI policies and components, while according to the fragmentation view the development would only rely on results of independent local developments. To review and reconcile this dichotomy for the purpose of better addressing the information requirements at local level, an alternative ontology is presented here, a resourcedependency-based ontology, derived from the resource dependency theory of (Pfeffer and Salancik, 1978). This theory conceives inter-dependency of organizations a direct result of exchange of resources of organizations with each other and with their environment. The approach does not make a difference in whether organizations are building blocks or social networks making up the SDI, but examines individual organizations, which assumingly contribute to making up the SDI, in relation to each other and their environment. The resulting resource-dependency-based ontology for SDIs provides a good explanation for interorganizational behavior, and could thus be a good instrument to support local SDI development plans. The empirical casestudy on the basis of which this theory is validated concerns the local land information infrastructure of Bekasi in Indonesia. Chapter 3 - The Habitats Directive contains clear indications in its preamble that its purpose is to foster Sustainable Development. This paper discusses the implementation of the Habitats Directive in England, with particular reference to the coastal zone with special emphasis upon the Humber Estuary. It highlights examples where genuine Sustainable Development solutions have been found, and shows that habitat re-creation projects are possible in dynamic coastal environments. In these situations Sustainable Development is realistically possible. There are, however, a variety of ongoing impediments to the delivery of Sustainable Development in the coastal zone and an unrealistic expectation that Sustainable Development is achievable in all cases. In the terrestrial environment the prospects of achieving Sustainable Development solutions are far less certain. Where Sustainable Development is not achievable, policy-makers and decision-makers face the challenge of finding alternative solutions. The authors offer thoughts on the strategic planning frameworks for coastal management needed to reinforce the benefits of the Habitats Directive whilst not impeding projects that are fundamental to the national interest. As this article represents

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ix

developing thinking it does not necessarily reflect the views of our respective organisations or UK Government policy. Chapter 4 - Sustainable development is always challenge to oil pipelines industry as any failure in operations may cause catastrophic effect on environment. Researchers and practitioners address the issues of sustainability in pipelines industry by carrying out environmental impact assessment of new projects and constant environmental monitoring during entire life of the pipelines. However, there is little effort to integrate environmental management of oil pipelines with the productivity of the entire system. This study introduces a pipelines project selection framework and inspection and maintenance policy selection framework using analytic hierarchy process to integrate environmental factors and pipelines productivity factors together in order to provide sustainable development. The proposed frameworks have been applied to a newly conceived project and a nineteen years old operating pipeline in the Western part of India to demonstrate the effectiveness of the frameworks. Chapter 5 - The space environment has been part of our business and cultural realm for the past 50 years and, with the advent of space tourism, is becoming increasingly so. However, largely as a result of the financial and practical difficulties inherent in spaceflight, the concept of sustainability has yet to be fully recognised by the space community. This chapter identifies three main elements of our current and future involvement in space - scientific exploration, industrial development and space tourism – and illustrates how the success of each requires a strategy for sustainable development. It also examines the fragility of certain aspects of the space environment and explains why a delay in addressing their protection could result in their permanent degradation or loss. Chapter 6 - Globally, buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of the total world annual energy consumption. Most of this energy is for the provision of lighting, heating, cooling, and air conditioning. Increasing awareness of the environmental impact of CO2 and NOx emissions and CFCs triggered a renewed interest in environmentally friendly cooling, and heating technologies. Under the 1997 Montreal Protocol, governments agreed to phase out chemicals used as refrigerants that have the potential to destroy stratospheric ozone. It was therefore considered desirable to reduce energy consumption and decrease the rate of depletion of world energy reserves and pollution of the environment. This chapter discusses a comprehensive review of energy sources, environment and sustainable development. This includes all the renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency systems, energy conservation scenarios, energy savings and other mitigation measures necessary to reduce climate change. Chapter 7 - Agriculture is linked to specific uses of ecological resources and has a considerable impact on the evolution of the state of the environment. Consequently, it represents an essential ecological issue in the framework of sustainable development. The fertilization techniques currently employed and intensive practices which weaken the soil may lead to durable or even irreversible environmental damage. In this context, environmental psychology investigates environmental representations and farming practices, as well as their evolution, in order to identify the factors most likely to support changes towards sustainable development. In this chapter, the authors will show why farmers’ representations of the environment do not have much impact on their practices: paradoxically, although they are directly implicated in the state of their environment, their representation contains very little reference to

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ecological values. Furthermore, their perceptions of the environment do not seem to affect their behavioural choices. Indeed, whether the farmers adopt favourable practices or not towards the environment, their representation remains basically identical. Thus, their conception of the environment does not determine their choice with regard to possible changes in their practices. The authors will then stress how farmers’ representation of their own professional activities is explicative of their relationships with their environment, and consequently of their behaviours. The modification of cultural practices is commonly linked to the commitment of farmers to so-called "pro-environmental" actions. In fact, this commitment appears to be more reasoned by the need to restore a positive social image of their profession than by the need to preserve a threatened natural environment. Consequently, the representations of the profession can be used in order to implicate the farmers and thus increase awareness and personal implication towards environmental problems. Chapter 8 - Remote sensing technology increases our capacity to characterize ecological phenomena and manage the landscape in a sustainable and appropriate manner. One key technology which has seen rapid adoption, and application, is LiDAR (light detection and ranging), which provides highly accurate information on vegetation and terrain height, increasing our ability to map and monitor canopy structure. Many key LiDAR developments have been presented at a series of annual international conferences held since 2002 . In this communication the authors summarize the most recent meeting and identify and describe key trends and findings in LiDAR remote sensing with focus on four key application areas; forest inventory, monitoring for reporting and treaty compliance, attribute estimation, including digital elevation models, and data fusion. Chapter 9 - The opportunity to develop an oil reservoir and extract its oil is nonrenewable. When this opportunity is undertaken by the current generation and the oil reserves within the reservoir are depleted, the same reservoir does not provide any other investment opportunities to future generations. To meet the goals of sustainable development, future generations should be compensated for the depleted resources and the foregone investment opportunities. This compensation can be regarded as the opportunity cost of extracting the oil now, and obtaining the economic rents generated by oil-extraction projects, rather than conserving the investment opportunities for future generations. This study provides a method for estimating the intergenerational opportunity cost of developing an oil reservoir and extract its oil, based on option pricing technique. This opportunity cost represents the share rights of future generations to the economic rents generated by oilextraction projects. Also, the paper investigates the effects of some key variables on the amount of the share rights of future generations. It has been found that the amount of the share rights increases with the unit production cost, the expected growth rate of production costs, the unit development cost, the expected real growth rate of oil prices and the level of risk associated with future prices of oil. Also, it has been found that, when considering the uncertainty over future oil prices, the amount of the share rights has a value that is greater than 0 even if future oil prices are not expected to grow in real terms. Chapter 10 - With the increase in awareness on environmental issues, many organizations have begun to integrate pollution prevention into their activities and management systems. Similar integration within government in developing policies and regulations are also crucial in ensuring national objective for sustainable development. The normal measures taken by the government authorities in the area of environmental protection have focused mainly on

Preface

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selected environmental concerns, such as impacts to the air, water, or soil, as well as on single life cycle stages, such as production or waste management. Such narrow solutions have proven to be ineffective, resulting in little or no overall beneficial effect and run the risk of simply transferring environmental impacts to another stage in the life cycle. Hence, there is an urgent and growing realization for the need to consider incorporating life cycle impacts in the strategic planning and development of government policies and regulations. This paper attempt to describe the various strategies and measures that could be useful in incorporating life cycle approaches in the development of government policies and regulations with a broader frame of reference. Discussions on the barriers and suggestions on the adoption of a more holistic and integrated approaches in the development of governmental policies are also presented.

In: Sustainable Development Research Advances Editor: Barton A. Larson, pp. 1-5

ISBN: 978-1-60021-846-0 © 2007 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Expert Commentary

FROM GOVERNMENT TO GOVERNANCE IN SPATIAL PLANNING AND INFORMATION SCIENCE Walter T. de Vries International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation, Enschede, Netherlands

1. CHANGING FROM GOVERNMENT TO GOVERNANCE Since the nineties researchers in the interdisciplinary field of public administration and management have expressed concerns on the role and importance of “government”. The new public management (NPM) paradigm (Hood, 1995; Hope, 2001) included as crucial government reform issues: efficiency, privatization and commercialization of public agencies, citizens as customers and reduction of bureaucracy in the public sector. While there is empirical evidence of some improvements in this NPM direction, at the same time criticism has arisen (Bovaird and Loeffler, 2001; Mathiasen, 1999). (Thiel, 2004) describes this for a number of former public agencies in the Netherlands which were transformed into more independent and business-like organizations, as shown in the table on the next page. (Ciborra, 2005) notes in addition that casestudies show that the “transformation of citizens into customers is problematic, and the correlation between good governance and minimal state with development can hardly be demonstrated historically”. In other words, new paradigms were considered necessary to understand the impacts of former policies, and to derive to a new thinking on what is now considered “governance” as opposed to government. Both development oriented agencies and academics from political science, public administration & information systems have pushed the concepts forward to find solutions to these government concerns.

2

Walter T. de Vries NPM “government” goal

Difficulties that have arisen Structure Division of authority, There is no longer a direct coupling of policy goals and management, policy making and policy implementation. Government agencies have become policy implementation of public both supervisor and implementer of different relationships. tasks by sub-contracting and This combined, hybrid role has proven to be very complex and is often leading to overlapping and conflicting interests. privatisation Accountability towards the general public / tax payers External Reporting and auditing The public task and the generation of public goods is not on results, and being accountable necessarily in line with the interest of individual for these results stakeholders Business oriented internal Hybrid internal culture and struggle between public service culture in public organizations and market / competition orientation Operational execution & Performance measurements Use of internal performance Difficulties in relating costprice norms to outcomes; rapid indicators changes in service needs

In the development world there has been a progress from position papers (Reinicke and Deng, 2000; UNDP, 1997; van Cranenburgh and Veldhuis, 1995) and white papers (CEC, 2001) on governance objectives and definitions to more sector-based and strategic documents on global, corporate, local and e-governance (OECD, 2004; Shah, 2006). Where previously government efficiency practices were promoted, which focused on re-engineering the government agencies based on business practices, more recent publications emphasize improvement of government practices and institutional arrangements. Similarly, many scientific debates conclude that public administration, citizens, the private sector and decision/policy making entities are becoming more entangled with each other, and decisions on future developments are increasingly the result of interactions and shared decision making of the various parties. This raised new challenges and dilemma’s(Bovaird and Loeffler, 2001; Jann, 2002):. Examples of this are highlighted the below table: Government focus

Dilemma’s to be solved

Business process orientation

From hierarchical to matrix organizations; manage business processes; how and what to delegate, subcontract, privatize, etc.

Reduction of redundancy

Ensuring policy coherence across government departments

Governance focus Structure Role and place of governments within societal, commercial and decision making processes, stakeholder dialogue (Arts and Van Tatenhove, 2004) Coherence

Dilemmas to be solved

How to steer and balance interests; how to include stakeholders in decision making

How to ensuring policy coherence across organisational and sectoral borders and levels of government as well as over time (sustainable development)

From Government to Governance in Spatial Planning and Information Science

Government focus

Dilemma’s to be solved

Territorial and fixed approach to government structure

Planning and decision making related to public sector hierarchy / territory

Internal view of public sector agencies Financial accounting

Service orientation User satisfaction

Performance measurements

Governance focus

Contextual and ad hoc approach to government structures; strategic alliances between stakeholders (Fox et al., 2006) Accountability towards the public Optimize output / efficiency External / entwined of the government apparatus view of public sector agencies with society and politics Reporting systems based on Responsibility needs of public managers accounting and selfand government oversight referentiality bodies Serving the community by Ownership producing policies, services and knowledge Increasing user satisfaction Trust and of local services trustworthiness (Avgerou et al., 2005) Operation and measurement Benchmarking results, Inclusion, internal processes or involvement, organisational performance participation against other local authorities

Customer focus

Incorporate the needs of citizens as customers

Participation

ICT mainly to improve efficiency and reduce redundancy

How to optimise information (system) solutions for current processes and planning solutions

ICT as driver and enabler for change

3

Dilemmas to be solved How to incorporate the influence of the context in alternative and flexible government and authority structures

Optimize effects / outcome, relevant and appropriate for all actors Publishing of performance information based on the needs of stakeholders in the community Enabling the community to plan and manage its own affairs Building trust in local government through transparent processes and dialogue Involving stakeholder groups in the definition of performance standards and measurement of performance (social, ethical and environmental reporting) How to activate civil society (through information, consultation and participation) How to employ ICT solutions to generate new processes, new knowledge and new societal / decision making solutions

2. CONSEQUENCES FOR RESEARCH AREAS IN PLANNING AND INFORMATION Alongside with the concerns in the field of public administration and management on governance the role of information technology within public administration and within the field of spatial planning have been picked up in various interdisciplinary discussions (Bekkers et al., 2002; Homburg, 1999; Snellen and Donk, 1998). Considering that uni-sectoral and unidisciplinary approaches to governance are no longer valid, the concept of the spatial data

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Walter T. de Vries

definitions based on spatial boundaries and spatial territories (by striving for seamless databases, introduction and use of fuzzy boundaries, issues of interoperability,etc.) should also be abandoned., Paradoxically one can observe in reality e-government initiatives that show a return to spatial e-governance based on spatial territories (e-provinces, emunicipalities, e-barangays - http://www.barangay.net.ph/ , etc.). In other words, egovernance initiatives are still based on traditional, hierarchical spatial planning thinking. One would expect however e-government initiatives which are multi-sectoral, functional and integrative (such as e-spatial planning, e-land management, e-decision making). There is thus a need to formulate what e-(spatial) planning entails, and how it is different from previous paradigms. This will require a thorough rethinking of the role and impact of planning and governance processes. Relating this to the above development, the following research areas could be defined: Emerging Research Areas What do spatial policy makers do, exactly? How does scientific knowledge, Structure professional experience, political priorities, public participation, economic interests, legal aspects and cultural values become integrated in the spatial policy making process; how do the relevant social groups get involved in the process? To what extent are these processes mediated by geo-ICT and how can they be scaled up? (Wesselink, 2006) How to understand urban regions from a governance perspective, considering that the boundaries are not necessarily dichotomous, either at national, regional or local level, but are often the result of a conglomerate of trans-organizational, transvertical, and transhorizontal processes, decisions, procedures and instructions. How to develop participatory, multi-dimensional evaluation frameworks of ICTAccountability towards mediated spatial policy formulation and implementation ? How to design and foster e-spatial planning approaches, which are in line with the public the thinking on/in multi-sectoral, integrative and holistic (e-,m-,u-) governance. How to understand the role of specific local context in e-governance. This Operation requires a better insight in how the socio-technical processes in urban regions and measurement foster or complicate the emergence of information and knowledge infrastructures. How to qualify and quantify the potential impact of ICT technology on governance and related spatial planning challenges. This will require initially qualitative and interpretative approaches to evaluate critically what is changing in the interactions of institutions and civil society, and what is the role of (spatial) information in these new relations.

REFERENCES Arts, B. and Van Tatenhove, J., 2004. Policy and power: A conceptual framework between the 'old' and 'new' policy idioms. Policy Sciences, 37(3-4): 339-356.

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Avgerou, C., Ciborra, C., Cordella, A., Kallinikos, J. and Smith, M., 2005. The role of information and communication technology in building trust in governance. Towards effectiveness and results, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC. Bekkers, V., Homburg, V. and Smeekes, M., 2002. The myths of e-government policies: balancing rhetoric and reality - english version of "De mythen van de elektronische overheid, Over retoriek en realiteit" nl versie in Bestuurswetenschappen [Governance Sciences], No. 4, pp. 277-295. Bovaird, T. and Loeffler, E., 2001. Emerging trends in public management and governance. BBS Teaching and Research review(Issue 5). CEC, C.o.t.E.C., 2001. European governance. A white paper, COM(2001) 428 final, pp. 35. Ciborra, C., 2005. Interpreting e-government and development. Efficiency, transparency or governance at a distance? Information technology & People, 18,(3): 260-279. Fox, N., Ward, K. and O'Rourke, A., 2006. A sociology of technology governance for the information age: The case of pharmaceuticals, consumer advertising and the Internet. Sociology-the Journal of the British Sociological Association, 40(2): 315-334. Homburg, V.M.F., 1999. The political economy of information management. A theoretical and empirical analysis of decision making regarding interorganizational information systems. PhD Theses series on systems, organizations and management Thesis, University of Groningen. Hood, C., 1995. The "new public management" in the 90s: variations on a theme. Accounting organizations and society, 20(2/3): 93-109. Hope, K.R., 2001. The new public management: context and practice in Africa. International public management journal, 4(2): 119-134. Jann, W., 2002. Experiences with public sector reform in Europe and Germany: The shift from public management to public governance. Mathiasen, D.G., 1999. The New public management and its critics. International public management journal, 2(1): 90-111. OECD, 2004. OECD principles of corporate governance, OECD. Reinicke, W.H. and Deng, F., 2000. Critical choices : the United Nations networks, and the future of global governance. International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa etc., 141 p. pp. Shah, A., 2006. Corruption and decentralized public governance, Policy research working paper series, pp. 28. Snellen, I.T.M. and Donk, W.B.H.J.v.d., 1998. Public administration in an information age, A handbook. Informatization developments and the public sector, 6, 579 pp. Thiel, S.v., 2004. Governance van overheidsorganisaties. Nieuwe vraagstukken voor sturing in het publieke domein. Broese & Peereboom BV, Breda, 144 pp. UNDP, 1997. Governance for sustainable human development. A UNDP policy document. van Cranenburgh, O. and Veldhuis, M., 1995. Good governance : RAWOO lunchlezingen 1993. RAWOO Publication. Raad van Advies voor het Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek in het Kader van Ontwikkelingssamenwerking (RAWOO), Den Haag, 70 p. pp. Wesselink, A. (Editor), 2006. Verkenningen hoogwaterbeheer Maas: een studie naar besluitvorming als verweving van expertise en belangen. CE&M research report 2006R003/WEM-004. University of Twente, PhD Interim Report.



Chapter 1

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION Dalia Streimikiene and Remigijus Čiegis Vilnius University Kaunas Faculty of Humanities

ABSTRACT The objective of the article is to analyse the relationship between climate change mitigation policies and other policies targeting sustainable energy development. The analysis of sustainable energy indicators (social, economic and environmental) performed in the article indicates that Greenhouse (GHG) emissions in energy sector can be considered as a final targeted indicator of sustainable energy development because all other sustainable energy indicators and all response actions on these indicators in the end will have impact on GHG emission reduction via the chain of mutual impacts in the framework of interlinked sustainable energy indicators. The social, economic and environmental targets of sustainable energy development are interrelated and can be addressed using the framework of indicators connecting indicators with policies and measures aiming to achieve specific targets established by these indicators. The final indicator in the chain of sustainable energy indicators is GHG emission. The article seeks to show how other policies promoting sustainable energy development interact with each other and with climate change mitigation policies. From the other hand all GHG mitigation policies have impact on other sustainable energy development targets and should be assessed according these targets: energy security, energy affordability, use of renewable energy sources, improvement of energy efficiency, impact on job markets, technological innovations etc. Therefore Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis should be applied for the selection of the most suitable climate change mitigation instruments according sustainable energy development targets. Another important issue addressed in the article is discussion of possible international post-Kyoto GHG mitigation architectures and evaluation of their impact on sustainable energy development targets. The main message of the article is advocate for harmonized policies targeting sustainable energy development and climate change mitigation. The Baltic States case study was developed to illustrate the main statements of the article relevant to energy policies

8

Dalia Streimikiene and Remigijus Čiegis impact on GHG emission reduction and Lithuanian case study was developed for the evaluation of climate change mitigation instruments according sustainable energy development targets.

Keywords: sustainable energy development, climate change mitigation

INTRODUCTION There is a dual relationship between sustainable development (SD) and climate change (CC). On one hand, climate change influences key natural and human living conditions and thereby also the basis for social and economic development, on the other hand society’s priorities on sustainable development influence both the vulnerability and the GHG emissions that are causing climate change. A number of conceptual discussions about the relationship between SD and climate change were initiated by the Third Assessment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Forth Assessment Report. The Synthesis report of Third Assessment (IPCC, 2001) recognises the importance of understanding the relationship between sustainable development and climate change and concludes on this background that “the climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development”. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. This occurs because the impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. Conversely, the pursuit of those goals will in turn affect the opportunities for, and success of, climate policies. In particular, the socio-economic and technological characteristics of different development paths will strongly affect emissions, the rate and magnitude of climate change, climate change impacts, the capability to adapt, and the capacity to mitigate.” The major findings of IPCC at the more conceptual level accordingly were, that sustainable development can be used as a framework for understanding society’s ability to respond to climate change impacts, but more work is needed to understand and assess the capacity for policy implementation. Climate change, at the same time, influences SD since negative climate impacts on ecosystem services, human health, agricultural production and many other areas will make it more difficult to meet social and environmental goals. Climate change impacts on development prospects have been described in an interagency project on poverty and climate change as Climate Change will compound existing poverty. Its adverse impacts will be most striking in the developing nations because of their dependence on natural resources, and their limited capacity to adapt to a changing climate. Sustainable development goals for transition economies are also tightly related with CC mitigation because these countries have high energy intensities of economies, low energy efficiency in energy production and consumption sectors therefore the sustainable development goals for these countries include GHG mitigation challenges as well. Recognizing the dual relationship between SD and climate change point to a need for exploration of policies that jointly address SD and climate change. The objective of the article

Sustainable Energy Development and Climate Change Mitigation

9

is to analyse the dual relationship of sustainable energy development and climate change mitigation policies via sustainable energy indicators framework and assessment of energy policies aiming sustainable development goals impact on GHG emission reduction and the assessment of local climate change mitigation measures and post-Kyoto international climate change mitigation regimes on the main targets of sustainable energy development. This approach would help to achieve the synergy in implementing policies targeting sustainable energy development and GHG emission reduction and ensure that climate change mitigation policies help to achieve sustainable energy development targets. The main tasks to achieve the objective of the article: • • •

•

•

To analyse sustainable energy development concept and energy market failures necessary to overcome seeking to implement sustainable energy development; To develop indicators framework to address sustainable energy development and GHG reduction targets; To analyse energy policies aiming at sustainable energy development targets and assess their impact on GHG emission reduction based on three Baltic States case studies; To analyse climate change mitigation policies and assess them in terms of sustainable energy development targets following World Energy Council (WEC) and other approaches; To analyse international post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes and assess them in terms of sustainable energy development targets.

The structure of the article correspond the main tasks assigned to achieve the objective of the article.

1. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 1.1. Sustainable Development In 1987 United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) presented a report “Our Common Future”, which became a cornerstone in the sustainable development concept, related to discussion on the environment and development interface. It is noted there that there is a need to seek sustainable social-economic development, also appraising ecological factors (WECD, 1987). Sustainable development philosophy, based upon the relationship harmonisation of people, society and nature, (which should act as the future guarantee of the world’s population), agrees that the priority should be given to real income growth. But it also emphasises that the latter growth might be unsustainable, if it is achieved by the huge costs of environmental damage. By giving considerable attention to environment, the sustainable development concept – approach, enabling the on-going improvements of today’s life quality, achieved by utilising natural resources with less intensity, and reserving the scope of resources or even amplifying them for the future generations, has a better ability to disclose

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Dalia Streimikiene and Remigijus Čiegis

the comprehension of natural and artificially created functions (to people and all living-forms of the Earth). It should be noted that sustainable ecological development requires a qualitatively new economics, acknowledging biosphere evolution processes and limitations, and preserving the balance of economic and ecological systems. H. Daly (1984) was among the first to introduce the issue of permissible scope of economic activities, which was ignored by neo-classical economic theory (especially on the macro-level) in his works on the economy of steady state. The author transferred the focus of economic research from the economy of production scope, reflecting effectiveness in changing scope of company or industry’s production, to the scope of economy. His essential finding can be concluded as follows: obvious that unlimited growth is impossible in a limited system, i.e. economic growth beyond the limits of biosphere capacity would necessarily cause the environmental collapse, as there is no feedback mechanism to guarantee unregulated market economy would never exceed its ecological capacity of the environment. Though the essence of the sustainable development concept is clear enough, the exact interpretation and definition of sustainable development has caused strong discussions (Stiglitz, 1974). It is possible that the terminology problem occurs in the dual nature of the sustainable development concept, covering development as well as sustainability. Economic and environmental literature offers over 70 definitions on ecologically sustainable development, representing the variety of terminology on sustainable development. It is thought appropriate to use the definition provided in Brundtland commission’s report, which discloses the idea of sustainable development best. It postulates that “sustainable development is the kind of development, which satisfies the present-day needs without undermining the opportunities of future generations to satisfy their needs. The sustainable development concept determines boundaries – not absolute limitations, but restrains, applied to resources of the existing technological and social organisational environment and capabilities of absorbing the effects of human activity.” It is possible to distinguish three sustainable development concepts approaches: a) economic, b) ecological, c) social. a) The economic sustainability approach is based upon R. Solow’s amplified theory on capital substitutability (Solow, 1993) and Hicks-Lindahl concept of maximum income, which can be acquired by saving essential wealth (capital) resources for the benefit of future generations, (implementing the principle of fair distribution among generations). This approach is very apparent in the literature, analysing the sustainable utilisation of renewable natural resources; in fact, it is the basic theory of optimum and economic effectiveness, applied to utilisation of scarce resources. But here we face some issues, related to capital, which should be preserved, identification types and its substitutability, as well as problems of evaluation of types of wealth, including ecological resources. b) The ecological approach to sustainable development pays most attention to stability of biological and physical systems and refers to C. Holling’s scientific works (Holling, 1931). According to this approach the primary task of economic development is to determine the natural systems limits for various economic activities. In this case, the vitality of sub-systems becomes essential in the critical view of global stability of the total ecosystem. Thus, the significance of preserving


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biological diversity is emphasised here in order to secure balanced nature. Referring to biological diversity, it is worth noticing that it cannot be replaced by anything else. This fact gives us a strong argument against discount application in determining the value of biological diversity. However the discussions about environment protection leads to the main energy market failures: external costs. c) Sustainability forces limitations upon the society’s ability to exchange with the surrounding natural systems and upon the society’s structure as well. People-oriented the social-cultural sustainability concept reflects the interface between development and dominating social norms and strives to maintain the stability of social systems, considering equality among different generations and securing survival of cultural variety as well as remising the possibility of destructive conflicts. For those who pursued social justice sustainable development envisaged the long-hoped alternative for economic orthodox doctrine and neo-liberalism. Taking into consideration these three sustainable development approaches, it is possible to formulate generalised principle of management of sustainable development, which require to analyse sustainable development as the interface of three systems – ecological, economic and social. In this case, the common goal of society sustainable development would be to maximise goals from the viewpoint of all systems concerned by utilising the exchange process, exchange made among various goals of economic, social and ecological systems, and by evaluating them through the optimising process applied to individual space in individual time limit. Thus, the sustainable development concept merges two urgent goals: a) to ensure appropriate, secure, wealth life for all people – its is the goal of development, and b) to live and labour in accordance with bio-physical limits of the environment – it is the goal of sustainability. These goals might seem contradictory but, despite that, they have to be achieved in unison. It has to be noted that the definition of sustainable development used in the report “Our Common Future” was, in fact, a specific turn-point from the previously dominating attitude “growth or environment” towards a possibility of – which is the essential contribution of Brundtland Commission report – complementing each other – economic growth and environment. Most scientists admit that the ecological sustainability concept is clearer and more explicit than the sustainable development definition (Perrings, 1991). Sustainability can be defined as “interrelationship between dynamic, human economic systems, where: (1) the human existence can last infinitely, (2) human individuals can thrive and (3) human cultures can evolve. But the effects of human activity should remain restrained to a limit not to endanger the diversity, complexity and functionality of ecological life-support systems”. Therefore, to be sustainable means: 1) every process to be ecologically safe (following the ecological compatibility condition); and 2) every process should provide the society with the appropriate amount of production (following the economic compatibility condition). Though the essence of sustainable development is quite clear but the exact definition of sustainable development concept is still under discussions. There are more than 70 definitions of sustainable development that can be found in economic literature and which are mostly orientated to specific sectors for example nature, economics, civilization and expressing quite different aspects of sustainable development concept. Nevertheless the most appropriate

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definition conveying the idea of sustainable development is formulated in the communication of Brundtland commission. This definition states that sustainable development is development which satisfies demands of the current time and at the same time do not makes dangers for future generations to satisfy their needs. Traditionally sustainable development concept involves economic, ecological and social development issues or economic, environmental and social dimensions of sustainability. Whereas the definition of sustainable development was plenty criticised because of its uncertainty and openness to the various interpretations this eventually allowed to Pearce to call conception of sustainable development and sustainability as well as their derivatives such as sustainable agriculture, sustainable energy, sustainable economic development, sustainable society etc. In practise sustainable development is assumed as capability to decouple economic development from resource utilisation and environmental pollution, in other words than consumption of natural resources increases more slowly than economic growth and environmental pollution is growing more slowly than consumption of natural resources. Such type of development can be treated as sustainable development.

1.2. Sustainable Energy Development Energy produced and used in ways that support human development over the long term, in all its social, economic, and environmental dimensions, is what is meant in this report the term sustainable energy. The modern life is based on use of resources in volumes that never had occurred before. In order to maintain this flow the huge amounts of energy is needed and in such approach the development is equivalent to our growing efforts to make life feasible. Though the fossil fuel is being used just about 300-400 years the current energy supply is mainly based on fossil fuels. Therefore talking about global energy development prospects the main attentions should be devoted to the possibilities to satisfy the energy demand of people and to answer the question, can the current increase in energy use be allowable taking into account the current energy sphere which is limited by the nature of fossil fuels and environmental problems, especially those of climate change caused by energy use. Neo-classical economics, at very best, analysed nature’s utilisation as a constituent part of effective distribution of limited resources (first to mention was H. Hotelling), but not as a source of social equity. At the same time based on the precondition that use of natural resources will not cause specific problems for economists because the increasing scarcity of natural resources increase their marginal prices and consequently reduce their demand and consumption and promote development of new technologies aiming to overcome physical scarcity, creation of substitutes and the search for cheaper substitutes and increase in resources exploration. In addition most economists were sure that there is possible transfer from non-renewable to renewable resources and they believed that in market economy this process will be performed automatically than the costs of exploration of new resources will reach the point higher than costs of resource regeneration, recycling and repeated use. These optimistic conclusions about possibilities to satisfy demand for fossil fuels in current days of high pressure on oil markets leads to conclusions that in the beginning of 21 th century there are no restrictions to supply energy in 50 years future.


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But the recent years have proved that the world is transforming from the world, where the restricting issue was capital created by man, to the world, where the restricting point is the remaining nature’s capital. Restrains should be set up for the nature’s capital, such as: to maximise the current wealth without violating the prerequisite to secure and preserve the nature’s capital for future generations. As this requirement is not always being maintained the threat of non-sustainable development is still exists and the main feature of non-sustainable development of current energy systems are not equal possibilities of world population to use commercial energy and environmental, economic and geopolitical consequences of non – equal energy use which will have impact in future as well. The following fourth features of non-sustainable energy development can be emphasized: social, economic, ecological and institutional. Very important issue – the negative impact of energy production and use on environment. Though the current fossil energy resources are enough to maintain global economic growth but the increased rates of their use will have hard environmental, economic and technological consequences first of all because of the climate change problem as “the greenhouse effect” is the major problem related to modern energy sector. Trying to maximally restrict negative consequences of the “greenhouse effect”, scientists agree that the permissible temperature increase per decade is 0.1oC and no more than maximum increase of 2oC in comparison with pre-industrial level. It means that the amount of CO2 in atmosphere cannot exceed 550 ppm. Thus, the current situation should be transformed into the annual reduction of CO2 emissions at least by 1-2% on the global level. Actually, it sounds unreal that by the year 2010 the desirable level of CO2 emissions can be reached (1.7 tonnes per person), transitional goals are needed as well. It should be noted that CO2 emission reduction is quite expensive process. Seeking to maintain this process it is necessary to implement system of emission permits and other measures to reduce GHG emission reduction. The main measures seeking to mitigate negative energy impact on environment are internalization of external costs in energy prices by implementing pollution taxes or emission permits systems and removing of energy subsidies for fossil fuels in socially responsible way. Therefore the main aim of sustainable energy development – to ensure that energy production and use would guarantee long-term human development, economic growth, and ecological sustainability by protecting g stable institutions which would ensure global security (Johansonsson, Goldemberg, 2002).

1.3. Energy Market Failures In the case of sustainable energy development the most important are social and environmental dimensions. They are directly related with the phenomena of energy market failure whereas economic issues of energy sector development can be tackled in the most efficient way by liberalized energy markets, which guarantee economic efficiency of energy system functioning. Therefore in order to ensure sustainable energy development it is necessary to undertake state intervention into energy markets measures able to overcome energy market failures associated with externalities and income inequality. Here the main attention is being paid upon environmental and social dimensions of energy sector

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development or in other words for the solutions of environmental and social problems caused by energy market failures. So we can conclude that the state policy measures overcoming limitations of energy markets related to energy affordability and integration of external costs in the price of energy are necessary in order to achieve social and environmental goals of sustainable energy development. Furthermore it is necessary to stress that all dimensions of sustainable energy development are tightly interrelated and influence each other and as a result policy measures designed for the reduction of environmental impact has effect upon all dimensions of sustainable development. After all integration of external costs has an impact on economic dimensions of sustainable development (promote increase of energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources) and influence capabilities of population to acquire the more expensive energy. Hence energy policy measures designed for implementation of concrete environmental, social or economic targets should considered in complex way by applying integrated assessment of these policy measures economic, social and environmental impact. Forasmuch concrete state policy measures securing sustainable energy development are based on the elimination of concrete market failures hereinafter more detailed analysis of interrelations between energy market failures and sustainable energy development issues are presented. Speaking about market failures first of all it is necessary to discuss the concept of market by itself (Cowen, 1998). Market can be considered as totality of goods and monetary intercourses, interchanges of goods and services among sellers and buyers operating according the laws of commodity production and circulation. Market helps to coordinate activities of various economic subjects and satisfy human needs. More common market understanding involves forces responsible for clearing prices – demand and supply. The change of prices of goods and services informs owners where to use their resources, what, how and for whom to produce ensuring the highest benefit to producers and consumers. Therefore market is the most efficient system of resource allocation for the commodity production. In short-term perspective in order to select effective environmental policies the marginal pollution abatement costs should be compared with the marginal benefit of clean environment. If these costs are equal the optimal; pollution level can be set and the society should tolerate this pollution level as the pollution reduction exceeding this limit will cause higher costs to the society than benefits received because of reduced pollution. In addition as technological innovations brings additional social benefits by reducing pollution control costs and increasing environmental quality the static analysis of environmental pollution costs/benefit should be replaced by dynamic analysis. Dealing with market failures the information asymmetry should be taken into account. There are two problems related with information asymmetry: moral hazard and adverse selection. Both innovations and technological development are hampered by additional market failures – not complete information. Therefore market failures related with not complete information or information asymmetry can explain the paradox that even being economically efficient investments in energy efficiency measures are underprovided by markets. Technological innovations having positive impact on pollution reduction are underprovided by markets because of the presence of two energy market failures: negative externalities of pollution and positive externalities of new technologies. Therefore the state


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policy is needed to promote new environmentally friendly technologies as these two energy market failures cause lower investments to renewable and energy efficiency improvement technologies as the socially optimal level would require. The application just environmental policies based on integration of external costs are nor enough and the technological innovations having positive impact on pollution reduction should be additionally promoted. The social issues addressed here are based on the problem of equal distribution of resources among different social groups which was deeply investigated in traditional welfare economics. The main concern of development is the human life quality. The government is the main institution distributing welfare the welfare should be regarded as national issues. Therefore distribution of welfare differs among countries. The essential aim of welfare economics is to satisfy the demand of the most vulnerable population. However as countries have different historical experience and economic and democratic development levels, the mentality of population is different and the social support systems available in countries differ significantly. In energy markets the energy affordability is the major concern. Market based on the price levers matches demand and supply. It allocates resources in the way than some demands are satisfied and some are neglected. Each government distributes welfare in national societies. In each case distribution is very important political decision. Markets supply goods for those people who have money to buy them. Equity principle in Welfare economics demands that prices should somehow be related to affordability; hence the poor should pay less per unit of energy than the rich. This principle is directly related with social dimensions of sustainable development. Social and cultural sustainability requires at the least to keep up certain critical components of social capital. Social capital is assumed as the capability of the society to solve social, economic and environmental problems and to act as active force in forming development of total system. For those who sought for social equity sustainable development became the most hopeful alternative for economic conformity and neoliberalism. In the case of income distribution equity between different generations we inevitably face one of the market failures. In such market where meet several generations of people the situation is far from equilibrium first of all because it is impossible to characterize resource limits of such markets. It should be stressed that such type of market failures are least investigated and the most difficult to overcome. Notwithstanding in this work we will concentrate mostly on the problem of equal resource allocation between different social groups that was deeply investigated in welfare economics. So in order to help the most vulnerable groups of population and to create more humanistic society the state interventions are needed. State can use market based distribution methods or can use political power and to stop market dictate. The state can take decision that for some groups of population not capable to buy food or to pay for communal services, electricity or other types of energy these goods and services to be provided free or cheaper in other words government will pay their costs using money received from tax payers. Resources such as money, goods, services are allocated in various national societies using different ways first of all because different economic situation in countries. Rich countries have much more resources and facilities as well to be distributed. Starting the analysis of interrelations between energy markets and sustainable energy development it is necessary to distinguish between energy sector development issues and role of energy markets in safeguarding sustainable energy development. Energy sector as the branch of economy can be characterized as the complex system which is comprised from


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power, district heat, oil, gas supply systems with their infrastructure and interplay. At the same time energy markets are the way of energy sector and its components functioning and organizational manner of energy activities. The role of energy markets can be disclosed by description of their functions. First of all energy market is the intermediate between production and consumption as moments of reproduction and relate them. From this point of view energy (power, gas, heat, oil and oil products) markets has an active impact on the production patterns, size, structure and growth rates, quality and asortiment of goods and services and other indicators of energy services supply and consumption in all quantitative and qualitative aspects. Though priority here is allocated first of all to production but it should be orientated to consumption and its changes because energy consumption is the main goal of energy supply. In turn consumption should promote appropriate changes in production. Only under such conditions energy supply will meet energy demand and equilibrium will be set in the energy market. Second energy markets should ensure realization of produced energy and services and in this case acknowledgement of social utility will be provided. If the goods or services will not be bought in the market this means the social disallowance of them and creates the risk for producers to experience losses or even to go on bankruptcy. Third market is very important lever stimulating to reduce costs of energy production and supply. Energy producers and suppliers successfully compete in the market trying to spend as less as possible means for energy production and supply of course trying to keep quality requirements. Such suppliers and producers not only successfully compete in the energy market but also receive higher income enabling to extend further production. Forth through the market economic sustainability is implemented in more efficient way, dictate of producers is removed, deficits are liquidated together with others shortages typical for other non market systems. So energy markets as itself regulating mechanism is very important tool for efficient energy sector management and satisfaction of consumers needs as well as for the implementation of the main goals of sustainable energy development. So liberalization of energy markets promotes the growth of economic efficiency in energy sector and helps to implement sustainable en energy development objectives. Though markets by themselves do not provide for sustainable energy development however competition stimulates effective work energy enterprises and provides with opportunity to choose for consumers. Although energy markets guarantee the more rational allocation of resources comparing with administrative methods but energy markets do not take into account social costs of energy production and consumption and do not warrant sustainable energy development, so it is necessary to develop policy ensuring the better positions for renewable en energy sources, energy efficiency improvement measures and new technologies. The main market failures impeding sustainable energy sector development are the following (Atkinson, Tietenberg 1991): • •

•

Markets do not take into account environmental and social issues of energy sector development; Markets do not promote long-term research and development, increase of energy efficiency, development of renewable energy resources and new energy generating technologies ; Markets do not guarantee energy affordability for the low income population.


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Therefore it is necessary to implement policy warranting better positions for renewable energy sources, energy efficiency improvement measures and new technologies. So in the areas there markets can’t provide for important social benefits the purposeful state policy and efficient regulation should be undertaken. In order to reduce these market distortions associated with externalities it is necessary to implement economic policy measures such as subsidies removal for traditional energy and integration of social costs in the price of energy in the form of pollution taxes and tradable pollution permits.

1.4. State Interventions into Energy Markets Market failures require state interventions. Often interventions has negative after effect therefore before starting implementation of policy measures it is necessary carry out comprehensive integrated assessment of these measure effects. By implementing policy measures particular principles are formulated which is necessary to keep seeking to ensure that implemented policy measure will provide with the maximum benefit. The main principles of environmental policy which should be met by implementing goals of sustainable energy development are: precaution and prevention principles, “polluter pays” and “profitable not to pollute” principles, social partnership, publicity, subsidiary, switching to educative environmental impact measures and international cooperation. The most important is precaution principle. This principle should be met than implementing each environmental or other policy measure because sometimes the engagement in market failures or imperfections by carrying out interventions into energy markets can simply turn into government failures which cause even more dangerous economic or environmental consequences. Pollution prevention principle is tightly related with precaution principle. During the latest decades it was recognized that more efficient way is to deal with environmental pollution problems is to avoid as much as possible pollution instead of introducing pollution abatement technologies. The principle “polluter pays” is based on the statements of modern environmental theory which claim that shifting of environmental costs of pollution from society upon producers and consumers shoulders is the way which is able reconcile ecology and economics by directing economic development towards less polluting production methods at the same time ensuring optimal resource distribution in economy. The principle “profitable not to pollute” is based on the provision that environmental protection is economically efficient activity creating value added instead compensating negative impact of pollution as it was considered before. Meantime the main stream tendency in environmental and social policy is switching from administrative and command methods of regulation to the informative, educative and ethical political impact methods. In the Western countries administrative management methods finally yield ground for economic tools of environmental and social regulation. Economic measures are swimmingly being supplemented by the new (so called third generation) informative policy measures, such as pilot projects, training, ecological and social labelling of products, voluntary initiatives of enterprises and voluntary agreements with environmental agencies, development of international standards, normative and management systems. The main measures to overcome energy market failures associate with environmental issues is integration of external energy costs by introducing pollution taxes or pollution trading systems (Andersen, 2000). As far as these costs are not fully integrated into energy

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prices environmentally justified energy subsidies promoting use of renewable energy sources are needed. However the first and the main policy measure securing implementation of sustainable energy development is removal of subsidies for traditional energy sources. Energy subsidy reform as every policy measure should be assessed in integrated way because sometimes implementation of such measures can cause contradictionary economic, social and environmental effect. So seeking to evaluate benefit of environmental policy it is necessary to apply integrated assessment framework because sometimes one optimal solution doesn’t exist but requires some judgment between several options based on the set priorities (Markandya, Longo, 2005). The solution will be based on the scores attributed to the single dimension of sustainable development, i.e. different criteria should be matched using individual priorities. For this purpose multi-criteria analysis can be usefully applied where economic, social and environmental criteria can be together incorporated (Schulze, 1994; Roy, 1996). All analytical methods for the evaluation of economic effects of policy measures can be grouped in two main categories: equilibrium models aiming to assess income flow (goods, pollution, cash flows) changes and models aiming to assess the changes in economic, environmental and social capital stocks. General equilibrium analysis involves a complex set of calculations to solve the market prices via the set of demand and supply equations. The analysis is therefore most frequently undertaken by use of a computer. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models essentially simulate markets for production factors and goods using systems of equations specifying supply and demand behaviour across all markets. There are many examples of CGE models, each “tailor-built” with a specific purpose in mind. It is therefore not possible to present a generic methodology here. However, in all cases the main tasks for the modeller are to specify the demand and supply equations and to determine the values of the parameters of these equations; and solve the system of equations, which will almost invariably be non-linear. This exercise is first undertaken for the economy with the subsidy in place. The proposed subsidy reform is then modelled by shifting the supply and demand curves. The model is then re-solved, yielding a new vector of output and consumer prices. The overall net cost or benefit of the policy is determined by examining the difference between the pre- and postpolicy vectors of prices and outputs. The data and resource requirements for the construction of CGE models are very substantial. However, this drawback should be weighed against the gains in accuracy of simulation to actual market changes that such modelling allows. Application of these models allows analysing the macroeconomic effect of every policy measure (introduction of CO2 tax, increase of pollution taxes by integrating of external costs, energy subsidy reform by removing energy subsidies to traditional energy and implementing subsidies to renewable energy sources) by simulating of market changes caused by the implementation of this measure (Streimikiene, 2000, 2003). An alternative to CGE modelling is for the partial equilibrium analysis to be extended to several linked markets. This approach requires data on the effects of changes in prices in one market on demand and supply in others. This option may be better suited to the context of some developing countries where the development of inter-connected goods and factor markets is not as advanced as is assumed in most CGE models. In extended partial equilibrium analysis, the analyst can judge for himself which markets should be included in the study in order to capture the majority of the welfare effects.


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The economic effect assessment methodologies described can be extended by evaluating the environmental impact of implemented policy measure (Virani, Graham, 1998). For example implementation of such policy measure as subsidy removal for traditional energy sources or integration of external energy costs may have environmental impact of 2 types. First, by lowering the price of a fuel to the consumer of the cost of production to the supplier, a subsidy (or underestimated external costs) will tend to increase demand for that fuel. This will, in turn, affect the quantity of polluting emissions to the environment. The precise nature of this relationship is itself determined by the amount of substitution that occurs between highly polluting fuels and less polluting fuels. Pollution can be local, such as toxic air-borne or water-borne emissions, regional, such as acid rain, or global, such as climate change brought about by emissions of so-called greenhouse gases. We focus in this section on pollution from emissions to air. Whilst there are a number of models relating to water and land pollution, it is currently thought that these media are likely to be of secondary importance compared to air pollution when considering the environmental effects of energysubsidy reform. The second form of environmental impact is on the depletion of natural resource stocks. In the case of fossil fuels, stocks are non-renewable. Once used, they are not directly replaceable and so the long-term capacity to provide energy from this source is depleted. In the absence of a substitute, future levels of welfare will be reduced. However, as natural resource accounting methodologies make clear, as long as substitution exists between natural capital and other forms of capital, both human and man-made, then this welfare effect will be reduced. The social impact is based on evaluation of economic impact. However all these effects are closely interrelated, i. e. social effect can be easily transformed into environmental effect (Faure, Skogh, 2003). The assessment of the social effects of policy measure must address two principal concerns: •

•

How different social groups are affected by changes in energy prices. Changes in real income distribution result both from changes in the pattern of economic activity and changes in environmental conditions. The former is generally most significant. An understanding of the winners and losers from subsidy reform is essential to a full assessment of the potential welfare benefits. How implementation of policy measure affects peoples’ access to energy supplies. This in turn affects their comfort levels and their ability to generate income. For example, subsidies to promote rural electrification can have a major impact on the lifestyles and livelihoods in rural areas.

An extension of the partial and general equilibrium methodologies outlined above can be used to identify distributional effects. The price and quantity changes derived from equilibrium-based economic modelling provide a starting point for assessing changes in employment, consumption patterns and real incomes for different income groups within society. A matrix of the distribution of gains and losses can be generated in this way. This analysis can be extended by applying weights to the welfare losses identified in the different income groups. For example, lower income groups could be given higher weighting to reflect the fact that income changes affect them proportionately more than richer people. This also allows the money metric to be used and the welfare losses to be aggregated on an equityrelated basis. This method is based on converting changes in income into changes in welfare,

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assuming that an addition to the welfare of a lower income person is worth more than that of a richer person.

2. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT TARGETS AND INDICATORS FRAMEWORK 2.1. EU Sustainable Development Strategy and Sustainable Energy Priorities EU Sustainable development strategy was adopted in Goteborg in 2001. EU Sustainable development strategy review was launched European Commission in 2004. Communication from the Commission to the Council on the 2005 Review of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy: Initial Stocktaking and Future Orientations identified quite limited trends in EU which are clearly not sustainable, such as the issues of climate change and energy use, threats to public health, poverty and social exclusion, ageing societies, management of natural resources, and land use and transport. These areas can be treated as priority areas requiring specific concern and urgent advanced policy actions The renewed EU Sustainable development strategy (EC, 2006) adopted on 2006 identifies 7 key challenges and corresponding targets: climate change and clean energy, sustainable transport, sustainable consumption and sustainable production, conservation and management of natural resources, public health, social inclusion, demography and migration, global poverty and sustainable development. The climate change and clean energy are very important issues and tightly related threats to public health; natural resources management, sustainable transport and sustainable production and consumption. The EU Green paper on European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy (SEC (2006) 317) (EU, 2006) sets the main priorities for EU energy strategy: competitiveness of the EU economy, security of supply and environmental protection. These objectives should help to address central policy concerns such as job creation, boosting overall productivity of the EU economy, protection of the environment and climate change. The Commission’s Green Paper on energy efficiency COM (2005) 265 (EU, 2005) stresses the importance of energy efficiency improvement for the controlling of demand growth and security of supply. 2006/32/EC Directive on energy end-use efficiency and energy services sets the targets for EU member states to reduce final energy consumption by 9% during the nine year period until 2015. White Paper for a Community Strategy and Action Plan on renewable energy sources states that member states should formulate indicative targets contribute to the ambitious indicative target of doubling the overall share of RES in the EU by 2010 (EU, 1997). It sets an indicative target of 12% for the contribution by RES to the total primary energy consumption within EU by 2010 and contains a strategy and action plan to achieve this target. Pursuant to the White paper on Renewables the Directive 2001/77/EC on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market was passed in 2001. It adds the indicative target contribution of 22.1%. All EU member states agreed national targets for electricity produced from renewables. 2003/30/EC Directive on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels in transport sets that Member States


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must ensure by end of 2005 a 2 % minimum proportion of biofuels of all gasoline and diesel fuels sold on their market. In longer term the target is to achieve a share of 5.75 % of biofuels for transport in the total amount of fuels in Europe by 2010 and 20 % by 2020. 2002/91/EC Directive on the energy performance of buildings sets target to realize a savings potential of around 22 % by 2010 for energy used in heating, air – conditioning, hot water and lighting. 2004/8/EC Directive on the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market aims to increase energy efficiency and improve security of supply by creating a framework for promotion and development of high efficiency cogeneration of heat and power based on useful heat demand and primary energy savings taking into account the specific national circumstances especially climate and economic conditions. The strategic goal of EU-15 is to double the share of electricity produced by CHP by 2010. The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) adopted in 2001 has served as a key vehicle to take action against climate change in Europe. It covers crucial energy initiatives and the recently launched EU-wide allowance trading scheme for greenhouse gas emissions, which started operating on 1 January 2005. All these directives and policy documents have positive impact on GHG emission reduction and achieving of Kyoto target. EU has ratified Kyoto Protocol committing itself to 8% GHG emission reduction in the period 2008-2012 from the 1990. The main targets addressed in EU Sustainable development strategy are: • • • • •

To implement Kyoto protocol; To increase security of supply; By 2010 ensure 12%, and 15% by 2015 of renewable energy target in primary energy and by 2010 21% of electricity consumption; By 2010 5.75% and by 2015 8% of transport fuels should consist of biofuels; Reaching an overall saving of 9% of final energy consumption over 9 years until 2017.

All these targets are closely interrelated and measures aiming at these targets should be harmonized therefore sustainable energy indicators framework can be developed within this priority area however other priority areas addressed in EU Sustainable development strategy are also interrelated and can be integrated in sustainable energy indicators framework. Transport is one of the main sources of GHG emissions tightly related with all issues concerning energy. EU Biofuels directive is the main directive clearly indicating linkages between climate change mitigation and transport priorities in EU Sustainable development strategy. Despite the aim to decouple transport from GDP growth, the volume of transport continues to rise faster than GDP. This has impacts in a variety of areas, ranging from traffic congestion and health problems caused by air pollutants, to increased CO2 emissions affecting the EU’s targets on climate change. The EU has initiated a number of policy initiatives to limit the negative effects of this trend in the growth in transport (EC, 2005). The main targets addressed in EU Sustainable development strategy are the following: • •

Decoupling of economic growth from demand for transport; Reducing transport GHG emissions;


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Reduce other pollutants emission from transport to levels that minimize effects on human health; Shift to environmentally friendly transport modes; Reducing transport noise to minimize health impact; Modernization of EU framework for public passenger transport to increase efficiency by 2010; Ensure CO2 emissions of 140g/km (2008/2009) and 120 g/km (2012); Halving road transport deaths by 2010 compared to 2000.

The targets for sustainable transport set by EU Sustainable development strategy are closely interrelated: decoupling of economic growth from demand for transport has positive impact on energy intensity and GHG emission and other pollutants emissions reduction from transport. The modernization of EU framework for public transport and increase of efficiency, shift to environmentally friendly transport modes have positive impact on decoupling of economic growth from demand for transport, GHG and other pollutants emission, transport noise reduction and human health impact mitigation. All these issues are related with energy use in transport and can be integrated in sustainable energy indicators framework. Energy production and consumption can be considered as the most important scope seeking to implement sustainable production and consumption patterns as energy is consumed in all sectors of economy and increase in energy use efficiency has significant important impact on GHG emission reduction. Besides that implementation of sustainable energy production principles would have the most important impact on GHG emission and other atmospheric emissions reduction, human health impact mitigation. The use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency improvement measures are the main environmentally advanced technologies in economy. The main targets addressed in EU Sustainable development strategy are: • • • •

Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation; Improving environmental and social performance for products and processes encouraging their uptake by business and consumers; To achieve by 2010 an EU average level of green procurement equal to that of currently achieved by the best performing member states; To increase global market shares in the field of environmental technologies and ecoinnovations.

The targets for sustainable production and consumption are relevant to energy sector and can be addressed in the framework of sustainable energy indicators. Measures to enhance resource efficiency are tightly related with climate change mitigation issues and include the EU Directive on waste electrical and electronic equipment, Landfill directive, Nitrates directive, Commission Communications on integrated product policy etc. Directive 1999/31/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on landfill of waste requires a 50% reduction in bio-degradable waste by 2005 and a further reduction of 25% by 2010 (as compared to the level of biodegradable waste in 1993). Methane in all new and existing waste landfills and shall be collected and used or burnt. After implementing


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these requirements the methane gas emissions in waste landfills will be reduced and GHG emission avoided. Directive 91/676/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council requires that manure is stored in a proper manner and the amount ant time of application of organic fertilisers be properly regulated. This reduces evaporation of nitrogen suboxide from organic and liquid mineral fertilisers. Reports shall be submitted every four years and shall detail issues related to the implementation of the action programme that also covers measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Directives 2002/95/EC on the restriction of the use of certain hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment and 2003/108/EC amending directive 2002/96/EC on waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) are designed to tackle the fast increasing waste stream of electrical and electronic equipment and complements European Union measures on landfill and incineration of waste. Increased recycling of electrical and electronic equipment will limit the total quantity of waste going to final disposal. Producers will be responsible for taking back and recycling electrical and electronic equipment. In order to prevent the generation of hazardous waste, Directive 2002/95/EC requires the substitution of various heavy metals (and brominated flame retardants in new electrical and electronic equipment put on the market from 1 July 2006. This also have positive impact on GHG emission reduction. On 7th February 2001, the European Commission adopted a Green Paper on integrated product policy. The Green Paper presents ideas for strengthening product-focused environmental policies and assisting the growth of a market for greener products. An integrated policy for products will probably need to be based on a mixture of the instruments and will have positive impact on GHG emission reduction as greener products include products having the least impact on environment including low GHG emissions etc. The main targets addressed in EU Sustainable development strategy: • • • • • •

Improving resource efficiency to reduce the overall use of non renewable resources; Improving resource efficiency through promotion of eco-efficient innovations; Avoiding overexploiting of renewable natural resources; Halting the loss of biodiversity; Contributing to achieving the four UN global objectives on forests by 2015; Enhancing efficient use of natural resources by applying the concept of life-cycle thinking.

Targets for conservation and management of natural resources relevant to energy are: increase of use of renewable energy sources and increase of energy use and production efficiency. The threats to public health in the EU have continued to increase since 2001. Lifestylerelated and chronic diseases increase rapidly worldwide with obesity showing the most alarming developments. Examples of policy measures taken since 2001 include the adoption of a proposal for a new EU regulatory framework for chemicals; the adoption of the European Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-2010 etc. (EC, 2005). Climate change has significant impact on public health through the vulnerability to climate change issues. The third countries are mostly vulnerable to climate change however the impact of climate change


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on human health is being investigated in EU as well. The relationship between climate change and sustainable development clearly is addressed in IPCC reports (IPCC, 2001). Energy production and use has significant on human health because of atmospheric emissions having negative impact on human health: NOx, SO2, CO, particulates, benzopyrene etc. Improving information on environmental pollution and adverse impact on human health is one of the main targets addressed in EU sustainable development strategy. The EU financed projects ExternE, ExternE-POL, NEEDS, CASES are aiming at providing external costs estimates of pollution caused by fuel cycles, electricity generation, transport etc. Poverty, social exclusion and ageing represent a growing problem in EU. In the EU, around 15% of the population lives at risk of income poverty. The situation in some of the new Member States is of particular concern. EU Member States have agreed to co-ordinate their policies for combating poverty and social exclusion by setting common objectives, designing national action plans and evaluating these using common indicators to monitor progress. The European Commission is supporting this co-ordination process (EU, 2005). • • • • • •

The main operational objectives and targets set by Sustainable development strategy (EC, 2006) are: Reduction of the number of people at risk of poverty and social exclusion by 2010; Ensuring a high level of social cohesion at EU level; Modernization of social protection; Increasing employment of migrants by 2010; Increasing the labour market participation of young people, woman, older people and disabled persons;

Very important social issues are related with energy affordability. The modernization of social protection include issues of new support schemes development for low income population enable to increase of energy affordability for the most vulnerable groups of population.

2.2. Indicators Addressing Climate Change and Clean Energy Targets EU sustainable development targets in priority area: climate change and clean energy can be monitored using sustainable energy indicators framework. All sustainable energy indicators in the framework are linked among themselves and have positive impact on GHG emission reduction (Streimikiene, 2004a, 2005). The other priority areas addressed in EU Sustainable development strategy can be also integrated in this sustainable energy indicators framework (Streimikiene, 2004b). As it was mentioned above implementation of EU directives targeting EE and RES have the positive impact on GHG emission reduction. Implementation of these directives requires regular monitoring of impacts of selected policies and strategies to see if they are furthering EE, RES and GHG emission reductions or if they should be adjusted. In this sense it is important to measure a country’s state of implementation of EU directives targeting EE, RES and GHG reduction and to monitor progress or lack of progress achieved by country towards


25

the main targets set by these directives. In the first step it is necessary to evaluate the country’s current status concerning the established targets, what should be improved and how these improvements can be achieved. In the next step, policy makers should understand the implications of selected directives, energy, environmental and economic programmes, policies and plans and their impacts on the achieving the main targets and goals set by these documents. For this purpose a simple policy tool - energy indicators establishing the aforementioned targets can be used. There are a several frameworks of indicators developed by various international organizations. The most appropriate tool in this case would be the indicators for sustainable energy development (EISD) framework developed by IAEA, UNDECA, IEA, EEA and EUROSTAT (IAEA, 2005). The EISD is a comprehensive analytical tool helping energy policy-makers at all levels to incorporate the concept of sustainable development into energy policy. The aim of this article is to show how the EISD approach can be used in analyzing trends in terms of energy sustainability, setting goals for sustainable energy development according to national and EU priorities, assessing progress made towards sustainable development and identifying new policy actions necessary to achieve these goals. The EISD set is used to present energy, economic, environmental and social data for policymakers in a coherent and consistent form, showing their linkages and their usefulness for making comparisons, trend analyses and policy assessments. Some indicators from EISD set can be selected and applied for the analysis of the EU energy policies in Member States and for the assessing their success towards implementation of the main targets set by directives and other policies establishing goals for energy efficiency improvements, use of RES and GHG reduction. Therefore, indicators relevant to EU and Lithuanian energy policies will be selected from the EISD core list and additional indicators will be developed to address missing targets in EISD core set. EISD core set is organized following the conceptual framework used by United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD). There are 30 indicators, classified into three dimensions: social, economic and environmental. These are further classified into 7 themes and 19 sub-themes. Some indicators can be classified in more than one dimension, theme or sub-theme, given the numerous interlink ages among these categories. Also, each indicator might represent a group of related indicators needed to asses’ particular issues. There are 4 social dimension indicators, 3 of them represent equity (accessibility, affordability, disparities) and one - health theme (safety). The set of energy indicators of economic dimension consists of 16 indicators. 14 of these indicators represent use and production theme and are divided according sub-themes into: overall use, overall productivity, supply efficiency, production, end use, and diversification and price sub-themes. 2 indicators (net energy import dependency, fuel stocks) define the security theme. In our analysis almost all economic dimension indicators will be used because they represent very clearly the priorities of EU energy policy. There are 9 environmental dimension indicators in the EISD core list. They are divided according atmosphere, water and land themes. For atmosphere theme 2 sub-themes (climate change and air quality) were defined. Air quality sub-theme includes ambient concentrations of pollutants in atmosphere, which are state indicator and air pollutants emissions into atmosphere from energy sector (direct driving force indicator). The scheme of core EISD is presented in Figure 2.1.


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SOCIAL Equity Accessibility SOC1 Affordability SOC2 Disparities SOC3 ECONOMIC Use and production patterns Overall use ECO1 Overall productivity ECO2 Supply efficiency ECO3 Production ECO4 and ECO5 End use ECO6-EC10 Diversification ECO11-ECO14 Air Climate change ENV1 Air quality ENV2-ENV3

Health Safety SOC4

Security Import dependency ECO15 Strategic fuel stocks ECO16

ENVIRONMENTAL Water Water quality ENV4

Land Soil quality ENV5 Forests ENV6 Solid waste ENV7-ENV9

Figure 2.1. The core EISD.

Trends in overall energy use including overall energy productivity, supply efficiency, end-use productivity, fuel mix and energy security will be analysed using economic dimension indicators. Environmental dimension indicators will address climate change mitigation issues. The appropriate EISD were selected to address requirements of EU directives targeting energy efficiency improvements and promotion of RES (IAEA, 2005; Streimikiene, 2005). For selection of indicators relevant to monitoring progress in climate change and clean energy priority area the analysis of the main EU energy and environmental directives was conducted (Streimikiene, 2004a). Based on this analysis the set of the main sustainable energy indicators was established. The headline indicators were selected from ISED list (IAEA, 2005; Streimikiene, 2005) to address requirements of EU directives and other EU policy documents targeting security of supply (SS1), energy efficiency improvements (EE1, EE2, EE3) (Markandya, Pedroso, Streimikiene, 2006), promotion of RES (RES1, RES2, RES3), GHG and other pollutant emission reduction (GHG1, OTH) and energy affordability (EA). The selected sustainable energy indicators were grouped by 5 priority areas of EU energy policy: increase of energy efficiency (EE), use of Renewable energy sources (RES), increase security of supply (SS), GHG and other pollutants emission reduction (GHG, OTH), increase in energy affordability (EA). The sustainable energy indicators framework for EU energy policy analysis and monitoring of EU sustainable development targets in priority area climate change mitigation and clean energy as well as integration of other areas (sustainable transport, sustainable consumption and production, conservation of natural resources, mitigation of human health impact and social issues are presented in Table 2.1.


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Table 2.1. Indicators selected for monitoring unsustainable trends in climate change and clean energy (Streimikiene, 2005) Indicators

Acronym

End-use energy intensity of GDP

EE1

Energy saved in buildings

EE2

Savings of primary energy supply

EE3

The share of CHP in electricity production

EE4

The share of RES in primary energy supply The share of RES in electricity generation

RES1

The share of RES in heat production

RES3

RES2

Sub-theme

Directive or policy document

Target

Energy efficiency (EE) To reduce final Energy Directive energy efficiency 2006/32/EC on end-use efficiency consumption by 9% the current and energy level (2006) services To save 22% of Energy 2002/91/EC energy used in efficiency Directive on the buildings energy performance of buildings To save 20% of Energy The TPES from year efficiency Commission’s 2005 level new Green Paper on energy efficiency COM (2005) 265 Double the Energy 2004/8/EC current share of efficiency Directive on the CHP promotion of cogeneration Use of Renewable energy sources (RES) Renewables The White Paper Share of RES in on renewable TPES- 2% sources Share of RES in Renewables Directive electricity 2001/77/EC on consumption the promotion of 22,1% (7% for electricity Lithuania) produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market Renewables Proposal for Double the Directive current level of promoting the use RES in heat of heat from production renewable energy sources

Date for achievement 2015

2010

2020

2010

2010

2010

2010


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Table 2.1. Continued Indicators

Acronym

The share of RES in fuel used in transport

RES4

Energy independency

Sub-theme

Directive or policy Target document

Date for achievement 2005 2010 2020

2% 2003/30/EC 5.75% Directive on the 20% promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels in transport Energy Supply (SS) To maintain 2030 SS1 Security of The EU Green Supply paper on European current energy independency Strategy for ratio (50%) Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy GHG and pollutants emission mitigation (GHG) GHG1 Climate Kyoto protocol Reduction by 8% 2008change of year 1990 level 2012

GHG emissions: ( total; energy production; transport; industry etc.) Emissions of other OTH (SO2, NOx, Voc, NH3, CO, particulates, benzapyrene, etc.) pollutants: (total; from energy production; from transport; other sectors) EA1 The ratio of real income spent on energy (electricity, natural gas, heat) to prices of energy (electricity, natural gas, heat) by low income and average population

Renewables

Emission of pollutants

Gothenburg protocol, Directive 2001/81/EC on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants

Energy affordability (EA) Energy affordability

2010 The national emission ceilings for SO2 – 145 thou t, for NOX – 110 thou t, for VOC – 92 thou t and for NH3 – 84 thou t.

-

-

Sustainable Energy Development and Climate Change Mitigation Capacities markets Reliability of contracts

Tradable white certificates

Increase efficiency of energy supply and use of CHP by implementing Tradable green certificates on CHP

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EE1 EE2

EE3 EE4

Security of supply SS1

GHG emission trading Flexible Kyoto mechanisms: JI and CDM Green budget reform

EA1 GHG and other pollutants emission mitigation GHG 1 OTH

RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4

Support schemes for low income population

Flue gas desulphurization equipment; Electrostatic precipitators; ect.

TGC schemes for RES-E, and energy used in transport Feed-in prices Subsidies for RES

Priority areas:

Direct driving force

Indirect driving force

State indicator

Response action

Energy and GHG mitigation Social issues

Figure 2.2. Framework of indicators for monitoring sustainable development priorities (Streimikiene at al, 2007).

2.3. Methodological Framework for Monitoring Sustainable Energy Development Targets All indicators presented in Table 2.1 can be connected to ach other via the chain of mutual impacts seeking to develop comprehensive policy framework for monitoring implementation of policies targeting sustainable development and tracking various interacting policy measures targeting relevant indicators. The methodological framework for monitoring sustainable development in EU is presented in Figure 2.2. Based on sustainable energy indicators framework for monitoring climate change and clean energy priority of sustainable development the other priorities (energy affordability, human health impact) relevant to energy sector were integrated. As one can see from Table 1 just priority area Energy affordability does not have the clear target expressed by sustainable energy indicator. The deadline for achievement of target for energy affordability is also not available as there are no EU directives or other policy documents establishing targets for energy affordability. In general energy affordability is lower in new member states comparing with old member states because real income of population is significant lower in new member states at the same time energy prices are converging between member states at significantly higher rates comparing to real income per capita convergence.

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The response actions based on the targeted indicators define the possible policy measures and actions to be implemented in order to achieve progress towards primary targets. The policies targeting headline indicators should be developed seeking to maximize positive synergies and reduce trade-offs between measures targeting different goals of sustainable development.

3. POLICIES TARGETING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR IMPACT ON GHG EMISSION REDUCTION Based on example of 3 Baltic States new EU member states since 2004 the impact of policies and measures aiming EU sustainable development targets on GHG emission reduction will be assessed. Baltic States have successfully implemented the EU directives targeting sustainable energy development issues (promotion of renewables and energy efficiency improvements), however, the decision makers are not aware that the main aim of directives, policies and measures is not the distortion of market equilibrium, but overcoming of market failures seeking to create the opportunities for the sustainable energy development. The main guide and criteria for the evaluation of energy policies is sustainable development strategy because market forces fail to solve the problems of sustainable energy development strategies, state policies, financing measures from the EU structural funds and implementing bodies are needed. The Baltic States have very similar policies in measures in place to promote the use of renewable energy sources or having impact on the utilisation of renewable energy sources: pollution taxes, fuel taxes, VAT and excise tax allowances for biomass and biofuel, feed-in prices for electricity produced from renewable energy sources, GHG emission trading schemes to be implemented since January 2005. Estonia distinguishes from the Baltic States with a voluntary green certificate trading system and CO2 tax implemented recently.

3.1. Value Added Tax (VAT) Since 2004 Lithuania and Estonia have the same VAT rate applied for households district heating. Latvia has no VAT applied for district heat for households. Before 2004 Lithuania had the highest VAT rate being applied for district heating - 8%. Latvia is planning to introduce VAT (18%) from 01.07.2005. This reduced tax rate for district heating can be treated as subsidy, which in general is environmentally harmful because district heat can be produced from carbon intensive fuels, for example HFO, orimulsion or oil-shale. In general, reduced VAT rate for district heating causes distortions in energy market because it puts into worse position decentralized heat supply. The best solution is to reduce subsidies for fossil fuel based energy sources and provide social support directly to the most vulnerable groups of population, because in current situation all people receive subsidy but not only the poorest ones. Lithuania is the only country from the Baltic States which apply VAT exemptions from biofuels. This has a positive impact on the promotion of biofuels use in transport sector and on the implementation of requirements of Directive 2003/30/EC, and on the promotion of the


31

use of biofuels or other renewable fuels in transport. Estonia applies the reduced VAT for peat and briquette, coal and wood sold to private consumers.

3.2. Pollution Taxes The Baltic States have quite different pollution tax rates applied for stationary pollution sources. Pollution taxes have impact on the enhanced use of renewable energy sources because renewable energy sources do not emit such pollutants like SO2, CO2, etc. into the atmosphere, and high taxes on the emissions of these pollutants increase the competitiveness of renewables in electricity, heat and transport fuel markets. The highest pollution tax rate is being applied in Lithuania. Lithuania has pollution taxes exemptions for biofules used in mobile pollution sources. Estonia has implemented CO2 tax in 2002. CO2 tax in Estonia is being applied for the combustion installations involved in GHG emission trading scheme. Latvia has introduced this tax since July 2005 on those combustion sources which are not included in the emission trading scheme; additionally, a high CO2 tax will be introduced for those combustion sources, which emitted CO2 emissions, but not included them in the emissions’ quota, which has to be annually reported by the facility to the national authority (it will work like a penalty for facilities which will exceed their allowances) (Table 3.1). In Lithuania there are attempts to implement the CO2 tax in sectors not covered by emission trading, namely, in transport sector. Table 3.1. CO2 taxes in the Baltic States, EUR/t Country

2005

2006

2007

2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

0.72 0.15 -

1.0 0.15 -

1.5 0.15 -

2.00 0.15 -

3.3. Excise Taxes 2003/96/EC Directive restructuring the community framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity aims to impose the taxation of energy products and electricity since January 1 2004 based on the minimum levels established by the directive. The Baltic States have a transition period for the harmonization of their excise taxes according to the requirements of 2003/96/EC Directive restructuring the community framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity. In general, excise taxes are very similar in the Baltic States. For example, excise tax for unleaded petrol in Estonia is 288 EUR/100 litres, in Latvia – 268 EUR/1000 litres and in Lithuania - 287.04 EUR/1000 litres respectively (Table 3.2). All Baltic States have transition periods to achieve a minimal requirement – 359 EUR/1000 litres set by Directive 2003/96/EC.


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Table 3.2. Excise taxes in the Baltic States in 2004 (in Euros) Type of energy Gasoline leaded Gasoline unleaded HFO Kerosene, diesel Heating oil Liquefied petroleum gas and gaseous hydrocarbons

Unit €/1000 litres €/1000 litres € /t € /1000 litres € /1000 litres €/t

Latvia 392 268 14 228 20 117

Estonia 340 290 10 250 26.84 100

Lithuania 421.2 287.04 15 292 21.02 126

3.4. Feed in Prices for Electricity Produced from RES The Baltic States have feed-in prices for renewables, but schemes operate in quite different ways. In Latvia and Estonia feed-in prices for renewables are based on the average price of electricity sold in previous years and the same coefficients being applied for purchasing price increase for all types of renewables, although Latvia applies higher coefficient (2) than Estonia (1.8). It has to be noted that Latvia has stated the restrictions on power plant’s capacity and its commencing time to receive such a support. Latvia has stated this doubled tariff only for small scale hydro and wind plants (with capacity less than 2 MW) in case the operation of these plants and their equipment is commenced prior to 1 January 2003 (hydro plants) or 1 June 2001 (wind plants), and such support is available for eight years from the commencement of the operation of each respective power plant. After this period the Regulator shall determine a purchase price. Also the Regulator is determining the purchase price for stations, which are put into operation after the data mentioned before. For the small scale power plants with capacity less 7 MW, using as a fuel municipal waste or the products of it processing (biogas), which will be commenced before 01.01.2008, the purchase price corresponds to the average electricity sales tariff. For any other types and capacities of power plants using renewable, different from those described before, the electricity purchase tariff is determined by Latvian Regulator. Table 3.3. Feed-in prices in the Baltic States in 2001, EURcents/kWh RES Source

Latvia (1996)

Hydro Power Plants

9.316 (for plants < 2MW, commenced before 01.01.2003) 9.316 (for plants < 2MW, commenced before 01.06.2001) 1) 4.658 (for plants < 7MW using municipal waste or biogas commenced before 01.01.2008) 2) determined by the Regulator 4.7

Wind Power Plants Power Plants, using biofuel Average electricity prices in 2003

Estonia (2003) 4.86

Lithuania (2000) 5.8

4.86

6.4

4.86

5.8

3.1

4.5


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Lithuania has fixed feed in prices set for different types of renewables. The highest price is applied for wind energy. For small hydro and biomass the same tariff is used. The summary of feed-in prices for the Baltic States is presented in Table (3.3). Higher feed in prices being applied in Latvia since 1996 have given a boost to Latvia’s share of renewables in recent years. The share of wind energy has increased from 0.05% in 1997 to 1.2% in 2003. The share of hydro was fluctuating during the same period because of weather conditions. In comparison, in Lithuania, the share of wind energy increased from 0% in 2001 to 0.8% in 2003 and in Estonia (where the feed in prices are the lowest ones) from 0.01% to 0.06% during the same period.

3.5. GHG Emission Trading Scheme Directive 2003/87/EC on establishing a scheme for GHG emission allowance trading within the Community foresees that Member States shall start CO2 emission trading among combusting installations with a rated thermal input exceeding 20 MW, mineral oil refineries, coke ovens, ferrous metals processing installations, mineral industry, pulp and paper producing installations by issuing a certain amount of tradable emission permits free for period of 2005-2007 according to the National allocation plans to be adopted by the Commission. The implementation of this directive will have a positive impact on the enhanced use of renewable energy sources because electricity and heat production from renewables does not require tradable GHG emission permits.

3.6. Voluntary Measures Estonia is the only country among the Baltic States having a voluntary green tradable certificate (TGC) system. The system of green certificate trading implemented in Estonia has some differences comparing with the schemes implemented in other EU Member States. The main difference is that the scheme is voluntary and there are no legal binding obligations for consumers to buy the established amount of Green certificates. The system is quite simple, transparent and easy to implement. The voluntary TGC scheme can also be implemented in Latvia and Lithuania, but since Latvia has a quite huge share of hydro in electricity generation, the implementation of voluntary green certificate trading is more important for Lithuania because of its current low share of electricity produced from renewables (3.1% in 2002). European-wide TGC scheme might be also implemented in 19982010, following a report and proposal from the European Commission in 2005. High efficiency cogeneration can also be enhanced via TGC scheme.

3.7. The Impacts of Policies Targeting EU Sustainable Energy Development Targets Assessment of the effect of GHG mitigation policies is the main tool to define the effectiveness of already implemented measures. Parties of UNFCCC convention have to report in their National Communications (NC) to UNFCCC on their climate change

34


mitigation policies and have to present the evaluation of impact of implemented policies and measures. Lithuania and Estonia haven’t presented in their NC the evaluations of policies’ impact. The impact of policies in Latvia’s third national communication was also incomplete and more descriptive than quantitative. Table 3.4. The impact of Climate change mitigation policies on GHG emission reduction in the Baltic States, Mt of CO2e Policies Estonia Total in energy generation Implementation of RES-E directive 2001/77/EC by guaranteed purchase, feedin prices, VAT exemptions on electricity from RES, TGC, CO2 taxes Implementation of White paper on RES strategy by tax allowances for biofuels, Feed-in prices, CO2 taxes, Implementation of Large combustion directive 2001/80/EC by renovation of Narva power plants Total in transport Implementation of National development plan for transport sector by increasing the share of public transport and new cars Implementation of biofuels directive 2003/30/EC by excise exemptions for biofuels Total in industry Implementation of Energy conservation programme measures in cement and lime production Total in households by implementing Energy conservation programme, Buildings directive (2002/91/EC) Total impact Lithuania Total in energy generation Implementation of RES-E directive 2001/77/EC by guaranteed purchase and feed-in prices Implementation of White paper on RES strategy by VAT, Excise tax exemptions for biofuels, Feed-in prices Implementation of CHP directive 2004/8/EC Total in transport

2005

2010

2015

2020

0.66 0.052

1.074 0.368

1.209 0.500

1.39 0.680

0.0034

0.006

0.0087

0.01

0.600

0.700

0.700

0.700

0.02 0.0027

0.065 0.0061

0.071 0.009

0.077 0.012

0.017

0.059

0.062

0.065

0.0002 0.0002

0.0008 0.0008

0.0012 0.0012

0.0014 0.0014

0.0008

0.0012

0.0015

0.0019

0.676

1.141

1.147

1.471

3.306 0.322

3.846 0.302

4.279 0.376

4.734 0.451

2.77

3.20

3.50

3.80

0.304

0.344

0.403

0.483

0.52

0.697

0.723

0.8


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Table 3.4. Continued Policies Implementation of energy efficiency programme Implementation of biofuels directive 2003/30/EC by VAT, excise and pollution tax exemptions for biofuels Total in industry Implementation of energy efficiency programme Total in households Implementation of energy efficiency programme, Buildings directive (2002/91/EC) Total impact Latvia Total in energy generation Implementation of RES-E directive 2001/77/EC by guaranteed purchase of electricity and feed-in prices Implementation of CHP directive 2004/8/EC by guaranteed purchase of electricity, feed-in tariffs for small producers Total in transport Implementation of biofuels directive 2003/30/EC by excise tax exemptions for biofuels Creation of optimal transport by implementing Riga city air quality improvement programme etc. Decrease of energy intensity of economy by implementing National energy efficiency programme in all sectors of economy Reduction of CO2 quotas for public utilities defined by NAP New building standards, financing schemes for multiflat dwellings renovation, implementation of Buildings directive (2002/91/EC). Total in households Total impact

2005 0.442

2010 0.442

2015 0.41

2020 0.41

0.078

0.255

0.313

0.39

0.51 0.51

0.48 0.48

0.44 0.44

0.42 0.42

0.12 0.12

0.12 0.12

0.12 0.12

0.12 0.12

4.456

5.143

5.562

6.074

0.266 0.12

0.572 0.307

0.806 0.475

1.017 0.686

0.146

0.265

0.331

0.331

0.143 0.073

0.367 0.273

0.469 0.313

0.675 0.338

0.07

0.094

0.156

0.337

1.091

2.838

4.966

7.661

0.027

0.126

0.36

0.36

0.36

0.36

0.43 1.500

0.486 3.777

0.36 6.241

0.36 9.353

The requirements for the EU integration are the key driver for the implementation of climate change mitigation policies and measures in the Baltic States. Climate Change

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mitigation was only a secondary benefit of these implemented measures. The main measures, the effect of which on GHG emission was evaluated, are the following: 1. Increased use of renewable energy sources: White Paper on Renewable Energy (1997); Renewable electricity Directive (2001/77/EC); Biofuels Directive (2003/30/EC) 2. Increased energy supply and transformation efficiency: promotion of CHP (2004/8/EC), rehabilitation of centralized heat system; 3. Increased energy use efficiency: Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (2002/91/EC); Energy efficiency programmes; 4. Promotion of low carbon intensive, cleaner fuels: GHG emission trading Directive (2003/87/EC); Directive on taxation of energy products (2003/96/EC). All Baltic States have implemented these EU directives. These measures can be treated as already implemented measures than the scenario „with measures“, which is being developed for GHG emissions projections. In Table 3.4 the summary effects on the same policies, implemented in the Baltic States, are presented for each country. As one can see from Table 3.4, though countries implemented the same GHG emission reduction tools, the effect on GHG emission reductions was very different. Of course, this is related to the size of the country, especially, primary energy supply and final energy consumption levels. The most sensitive issue is the expected decrease of energy intensity of national economies assumed in GHG emissions forecast for each country.

4. CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICIES AND THEIR IMPACT ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT TARGETS 4.1. Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Measures There is a range of measure according to the type of policy instrument employed, following the categorisation used by the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This involves distinguishing between: Economic and fiscal instruments; Regulations and standards; Voluntary agreements; Information and awareness; Research and development. The first category in the UNFCCC classification is that of economic and fiscal instruments and in turn this covers three main classes of instrument: subsidies, taxes and emissions trading. These instruments are the most commonly used (along with regulation) in Annex 1 countries and are found in all sectors, accounting for over one third of the reported policy instruments in the energy and transport sectors. They are less commonly reported by developing countries though, as discussed below, subsidy removal is an important tool in some countries. In many ways, the first and most effective step in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective manner is the removal of subsidies on fossil fuels. But the main forms of subsidy used in a climate change context are those designed directly either to lower energy intensity or to reduce carbon intensity. Thus many measures aim directly at


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subsidising non-fossil fuels, particularly renewables (to reduce carbon intensity), or energy efficiency measures (to reduce energy intensity). Energy taxes are in many ways the mirror image of subsidies. Fuel taxes have always been common in OECD countries, as noted above, particularly in relation to motor fuels. In Europe and Japan in particular, motor fuel taxes are very high indeed, amounting in many cases to around 70-80% of the final consumer price. Increasingly, OECD countries are also introducing wider fuel or carbon taxes – for instance, Japan has imposed an energy tax and is exploring carbon tax options. The European Union has set a framework for the taxation of energy products which sets out minimum levels of taxation for energy products and electricity but allows for exemptions or reductions to promote renewable sources. In practice, many EU countries have gone beyond this and have imposed higher levels of taxation, or specific carbon taxes (Malaman, Pavan, 2002). An emission trading is best regarded not as a way of reducing GHG emissions but as a way of ensuring that a desired level of GHG emissions reduction is met efficiently. In principle, emissions trading should ensure that a given level of emissions reduction is met in a way which ensures flexibility and reduces the costs of compliance, because participants have an incentive to identify and implement the least cost solutions (Hogg, 2000). Because they are based on defined levels of emissions, they provide additional certainty – unlike fuel taxes and subsidies, which also influence behaviour through economic signals but whose impact can be difficult to predict and may (as with motor fuels) be relatively limited. EU GHG emission trading scheme implemented in 2005 is the first international emission trading scheme implemented all over the world. There are 3 flexible GHG mitigation tools under Kyoto protocol: emission trading, Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM). Under the terms of the Kyoto protocol, Annex 1 countries can invest in either JI or CDM Projects and can also host JI projects. They cannot, however, host CDM projects, which must be implemented in non Annex 1 countries. JI is a relatively straightforward way of transferring the credits from emissions reducing projects between countries which are subject to caps. CDM is more complicated, both conceptually and administratively. First, it has two objectives: not just to enable one party to meet its emissions reduction objectives, but also to promote sustainable development in the other (non Annex 1) country. Second, because the non Annex 1 country by definition has no emissions cap, strict criteria are needed to ensure that the emissions reductions are additional – i.e. that they would not have occurred in the absence of the CDM measure concerned. The key difference, as compared with the ETS, is that these mechanisms are project-based (Streimikiene, Bubniene, 2004). Regulations and standards are a very common approach, particularly in the OECD, where they account for about one quarter of the policy instruments reported. It is difficult to generalise about regulatory approaches since they apply across so many sectors and in such a variety of ways. However, common approaches include: building standards, appliance standards, vehicles regulations and other environmental regulations. Regulatory approaches are widespread in OECD countries, all of which report a range of such measures. They undoubtedly have an important place in promoting efficiency and in overcoming market failures – not only the failure to internalise environmental costs but also some of the well recognised barriers to greater energy efficiency, such as consumer indifference, incomplete incentives in landlord/tenant relationships etc.

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Voluntary agreements are often more effective when combined with other measures (eg taxes) or backed up by sanctions. Examples include the UK Climate Change Agreements, which are voluntary agreements but offer the carrot of relief from the Climate Change Levy. Voluntary agreements have also been used extensively in the Netherlands, for many years. These agreements are long term and integrated into the environmental permit-setting process. They are also backed up by sanctions – those who do not join up to the agreements incur direct obligations to undertake cost-effective voluntary measures. However they do not apply directly to energy intensive industrial sectors. A major example of a voluntary agreement, designed to improve vehicle standards, is the agreement the EU has reached with a number of car manufacturing associations in Europe, Japan and Korea. Many studies have identified a huge range of cost-effective opportunities available across the economy but which are not currently being implemented. One of the barriers to exploiting these opportunities is often seen to be a lack of consumer information and awareness. If this can be overcome by the provision of better information, it may be possible for consumers to make their own decisions in a way which promotes improved energy efficiency and lower emissions without the need for further intervention. Most governments, in both developed and developing world, have therefore introduced information measures; education and awareness campaigns and the promotion of consumer-relevant energy efficiency information are particularly common. Measures such as energy labelling of appliances or buildings are also fairly widespread. Sometimes such measures are combined with subsidies (for instance, subsidies for energy efficiency surveys in industry or for the installation of energy monitoring and targeting systems) or regulation (as with some labelling schemes, or the requirement in some countries for the documentation for a house sale to include an energy audit). Research and development is the fifth of the UNFCCC’s categories. In principle, it is probably better to take the category widely to include research, development, demonstration, technology choice and deployment and technology transfer, because of the importance of all these aspects of the technology issue to the longer term emissions picture.

4.2. Assessment of GHG Mitigation Policies Impact on Sustainable Energy Development Goals Considering the likely impacts of their energy policy measures, governments should give more attention to monitoring their effects in practice. There is evidence that many measures are not in practice meeting the objectives they are aimed at, like lowering emissions. Very few policy measures have been assessed in a holistic way against all three energy sustainability dimensions identified by World Energy Council (WEC, 2007). In 2000, the World Energy Council published a Statement “Energy for Tomorrow’s World – Acting Now” which looked at the challenges the world faced in meeting its energy needs in the 21st Century. The following description of the three WEC energy goals is extracted from that document. WEC considers economic growth together with national and international institutional reforms essential to energy accessibility for everyone, including the poorest two billion people in the world. When only some individuals or regions of the world benefit from energy development and others are left behind, the ensuing political and social instability can pose a significant threat to world peace and, in turn, to energy availability through supply


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disruptions. In addition to the impact of accessibility on energy availability, it is also linked closely to energy acceptability. Investment partnerships to achieve energy accessibility and availability could also address social and environmental issues. Accessibility is the provision of reliable and affordable modern energy services for which a payment is made. It depends on policies specifically targeted to meeting the needs of the poor, in the context of increasing reliance on market signals. The best way to ensure that a growing number of people will be able to afford commercial energy in line with their needs is to accelerate economic growth and pursue more equitable income distribution. This requires increasing reliance on the market, while addressing cases of market "failure" with special policies. An energy tariff reflecting all costs, including external costs such as emissions or waste management, is necessary to secure adequate investment and encourage energy efficiency and environmentally preferred technologies, but such a tariff would be unaffordable for many people. At the same time, a tariff subsidised down to a socially affordable price would not attract sufficient investment, consequently in the long-run working against the interests of those who are in need of commercial energy infrastructure. There may be a need, in some cases, to subsidise energy technology and delivery for a period of time without creating price distortions or at least by keeping them to a minimum. Variable, maintenance and extension costs need to be reflected in the price paid for energy, but sunk costs might be handled differently in some circumstances. Availability covers both quality and reliability of delivered energy. The continuity of energy supply, particularly electricity, is essential in the 21st Century. While short-term interruptible supply may be feasible in certain circumstances as long as the conditions are known and understood by customers, unexpected power cuts bear a high cost for society that cannot be ignored. The world’s growing reliance on information technologies makes reliability even more critical …. Energy availability requires a diversified energy portfolio consistent with particular national circumstances together with the means to harness potential new energy sources. Most WEC Member Committees agree that all energy resources will be needed over the next fifty years and there is no case for the arbitrary exclusion of any source of energy. Acceptability addresses environmental goals and public attitudes. Local pollution is a cause of harm to billions of people, especially in developing countries. Global climate change has become an important concern. Mindful of these two facts, developing countries are concerned about both the potential impact of climate-change-related response measures on their economies, and the rising levels of consumer-based household emissions which create local (urban) and regional pollution (e.g. such as acid rain’s impact on crops and forests). The energy sector is one area in which new and readily available technologies have already reduced emissions and hold out prospects for future improvement. Of course, environmentally friendly technologies have to be developed, diffused, maintained and expanded in all parts of the world. Hence, there is a need to foster adequate local capacity to ensure that the technologies can be used and maintained by local people. Energy resources must be produced and used in a manner that protects and preserves the local and global environment now and in the future. The main climate change mitigation policies including local and international consists of energy and carbon taxes, removal of subsidies on fossil fuels, emission trading schemes, subsidies to low carbon energy options including renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures, regulations and standards, voluntary agreements and information and


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awareness. Based on results of WEC “Energy and climate change study” the evaluation of these climate change mitigation measures according tree dimensions of sustainable energy development (Acceptability, availability and Accessibility) was performed. The evaluation was carried out on 5 star rating system where: ***** **** *** ** *

The impact of climate change mitigation instrument on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is very positive; The impact of climate change mitigation instrument on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is good for the group of countries; The impact of climate change mitigation instrument on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is poor for the group of countries; The impact of climate change mitigation instrument on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is week for the group of countries; The impact of l climate change mitigation instrument on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is negative for the group of countries.

The results of this holistic exercise are presented in Table 4.1. Table 4.1. Assessment of climate change mitigation measures according three A’s Criteria

Assess ment

Acceptability Availability

**** ***

Accessibility

*

Remarks Energy and Carbon Taxes Strong theoretical advantages, but many problems in practice. Impact varies a lot according to circumstances and there are often both positive and negative effects. Taxes usually have adverse impacts on accessibility unless carefully designed and accompanied by offsetting measures.

Total score: 8 Acceptability Availability Accessibility

***** ***** **

Removal of subsidies on fossil fuels An important first step in combating climate change. Removing market distortions should improve availability. Provided consideration is given to meeting the social needs which the subsidy was designed to meet, it should be possible to offset any adverse impact from subsidy removal.

Total score: 12 Acceptability Availability

**** ***

Accessibility

***

Total score: 10

Emissions Trading Very useful in principle, but complicated in practice. It may take time for trading schemes to become credible enough to promote appropriate investment. Trading schemes at present do little for accessibility. In principle, they could be a powerful tool, but there are formidable practical difficulties.


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Table 4.1. Continued Criteria

Assess ment

Acceptability Availability

**** ****

Accessibility

***

Remarks Impact of Subsidies to RES and EE Subsidies can be used to promote low carbon options directly. Subsidies normally go to indigenous sources or to demand reduction, so should tend to promote availability. However, they reflect government rather than market choices, which may not be efficient. Subsidies for low carbon sources are not usually designed specifically to promote accessibility and in many cases fail to do so.

Total score: 11 Acceptability

****

Availability

***

Accessibility

***

Regulations and standards Can be effective if well-judged, but often fail to achieve as much as expected. By and large, these measures are not aimed at improving availability, though they may reduce demand pressures. Regulations tend to increase costs so may create problems for accessibility unless carefully designed, with offsetting measures.


****

Availability

***

Accessibility

***

Voluntary Agreements VAs can improve acceptability, but probably only to a limited extent Most VAs are not primarily aimed at availability and probably have marginal impact in this area VAs should avoid the problem of excess cost and may have a generally positive effect on accessibility, but do not have a major impact on their own.


***

Availability Accessibility Total score: 7

** **

Information and awareness Information and awareness measures are desirable and unobjectionable, but insufficient on their own to deliver major improvements in acceptability. Unlikely to have much impact Unlikely to have much impact

The following conclusions presented bellow can be developed in assessing climate change mitigation measures according three dimensions of sustainable energy development. Energy taxation has an important part to play. Energy or carbon taxes score relatively highly against the criterion of environmental acceptability, which is probably why they have been widely adopted in OECD countries. They have strong theoretical advantages. Some economic activities lead to results which impose costs (or create benefits) for others who are not directly involved in the activity concerned (these costs and benefits for outsiders are called “externalities”). Burning fossil fuel is an example – it creates emissions of various

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sorts, which impose costs on the rest of society. Where activities involve externalities which cannot be traded in the market, the best way of reflecting these wider social costs is usually to incorporate them directly in the cost of the economic activity concerned – to “internalise” the costs, via taxes. In the present case, this can in principle be done via an energy or carbon tax. If this succeeds in internalising the environmental costs of energy use, they should lead to a socially optimum result, with minimum economic distortion – for instance, it should encourage greater energy efficiency and the choice of lower carbon fuels, without the need for additional subsidies or regulations. The impact of taxes on availability is complex. On the one hand, consumer taxes may serve to reduce demand and therefore relieve the tightness of the energy supply/demand balance worldwide. On the other hand, their effectiveness in reducing demand is uncertain – they may divert economic activity (from a high tax country to a low tax country) rather than curtailing it, or they may simply raise revenue, as discussed above. Furthermore, tax rates are not usually fixed for years in advance – both the taxes themselves and the relativities between taxes are normally treated as sovereign matters for governments to decide as they wish. This uncertainty about the long term stability of tax regimes means that they are not generally seen as a firm basis for investment decisions – for instance, countries with carbon taxes rarely guarantee them for years ahead, so the taxes are not normally of themselves enough to justify investment in low carbon sources such as renewables, which in most cases receive additional forms of support. Energy taxes do not score well against this heading. They have a strong tendency to be highly regressive – ie to impose higher burdens on the poor than the rich. Clearly, this depends on the fuel and the country involved. It applies particularly strongly to fuels used for home heating and cooking and (in some countries) home cooling. As regards motor fuel the position varies between countries – in many countries, private road transportation is a possibility for richer citizens only, so motor fuel taxation (especially if public transport is exempted) need not of itself be regressive (though it may still be highly controversial). In some countries, much the same applies to electricity – poorer consumers either lack access to electricity or consume very small quantities. Nonetheless, overall the general rule is that energy taxation affects poorer consumers more than the wealthy. This applies both within and between countries. Therefore, it is not in practice feasible to implement theoretically ideal tax regimes, and higher taxes have social consequences. Taxes can therefore not be relied on as the whole solution and often therefore need to be supplemented by other measures, particularly to offset the social impacts. The message here is that if governments want taxation to be effective in relation to the three A’s, they should be properly justified in terms of externalities, stable and predictable, and imposed with due regard to the social consequences (which will often imply accompanying social measures). Tax measures meeting these criteria might score well against the WEC criteria but existing tax measures score only moderately. Total score of the scheme is 8. Subsidies for fossil fuels removal scores well, in nearly all cases, on the criterion of acceptability. Subsidies encourage excessive energy use and mean that consumers receive distorted price signals; they also promote the wrong sort of investment in energy using equipment (eg large cars) and thus create a new interest group with a reason to lobby for what is essentially unsustainable behaviour. Removing subsidies on fossil fuels may involve political problems but in nearly all cases it tends to promote environmental improvement. In the same way, subsidy removal will tend to promote availability, by reducing excess demand and (in some cases) increasing producer returns. Much the same considerations apply as with


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taxes – removal of subsidies tends to create social problems. The difference is that the continuation of subsidies is often itself highly distortive and may indeed be unsustainable. In some cases it diverts money from socially more useful expenditure – which could include expenditure to promote access to energy. For instance, in countries where electricity is subsidised, it would often be more effective to subsidise the electricity connection (thus promoting access) rather than electricity itself (which may help only those already privileged to have access to power, and encourage them to over-consume, and reducing the funds available within the electricity system for expanding the network). So while it should be recognised that subsidy removal may create social problems there may be relatively straightforward means of reducing any impact on accessibility. The overall message here is that, while there may be problems, subsidy removal has such strong benefits that it is a key measure for consideration in any country where significant subsidies currently exist on fossil fuel use. Where the subsidy has been meeting an important social need, alternative means of dealing with the problem should (and generally can) be identified. In general subsidies to fossil fuels should be closely scrutinized. Often subsidy removal will be an effective first step in combating climate change in a sustainable manner. Where subsidies meet social needs, it will often be possible to identify alternative measures for satisfying those needs. The total score of the scheme is 12. Emissions trading suffer from some of the same problems as taxation – they tend to increase consumer prices and may thus be regressive in their impact. In principle, however, many of these problems could be mitigated by a global trading scheme, or even a more effective and responsive version of the present Kyoto mechanisms. Despite the recent fall in prices under the ETS, the cost of carbon remains much higher than for credits under the CDM or JI arrangements. More liquid trading could lead to larger transfers to developing countries, without imposing extra costs on developed country consumers. If combined with Green Investment Schemes, the revenues could be used to improve access, so providing further benefits to the developing countries involved. Thus in principle trading schemes could make a strong contribution to accessibility worldwide. However, the contribution at present is limited, and there are some inherent problems. Trading schemes are complex and require a capacity for effective monitoring and enforcement; if they are to meet all the criteria of sustainable development, this almost certainly adds to the necessary administrative complexity, as has happened with the CDM. To enable trading to make its full potential contribution to climate change reduction of trading would require not only a global consensus on a longer term regime, as discussed above, but also simpler and more credible rules, enabling a liquid global market to develop. This is a major challenge and unlikely to be achieved in the shorter term. Therefore emission trading and other economic instruments have great potential but there is a lot to learn in practice. The ultimate aim must be to develop an effective global scheme which would encourage clean technology projects in the developing world, but we have not yet progressed far down this road. The total score of the scheme is 10. Subsidies to RES and EE and for other low carbon energy forms come in so many varieties that it is impossible to give an overall assessment. Clearly, if well designed, they should improve the acceptability of the energy mix by reducing its carbon intensity. They may also improve availability by encouraging indigenous and non-fossil sources like renewables and nuclear – though on the other hand, they may create market uncertainty and discourage other investment. In addition, by promoting policy driven rather than market driven investment, they may result in lower efficiency and less reliable supply overall.

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Subsidies can in principle accessibility eg by supporting energy efficiency measures – though this may create conflicts. Energy efficiency support for low income consumers often results in higher comfort levels rather than lower consumption, a worthwhile result in itself but not significant in terms of emissions reduction. Subsidies for climate change supply measures may in some cases promote accessibility – eg by encouraging the development of off-grid applications – but this may not always be a consumer’s desired choice (since off-grid supply is often of lower quantity or lower reliability than grid supply). It also depends on what precisely is being subsidised and how; the issues are looked at in more detail under the headings relating to the particular policy areas concerned. There is an underlying problem – with subsidies, unlike most other economic instruments, government support usually involves picking winners, that is supporting particular projects or technologies, rather than supporting carbon reductions as such (as with taxation or trading). This raises the risk of pressure from interest groups, loss of market efficiencies or simply ill-informed decision-making undermining the ability to reach the objectives nominally being aimed at. The total score of the scheme is 11. Regulations and standards are also important and will form part of any policy package but they need to be designed and monitored more carefully than in the past to be really effective. it depends on what is being regulated and what standard is being aimed at. However there are major additional problems of monitoring and enforcement. While regulations and standards will form a major part of the policy armoury, they should not be relied on their own as a way of meeting emissions targets, unless extremely draconian approaches (which are unlikely to prove publicly acceptable) are adopted. Voluntary agreements have generally operated in the same general area as regulations and standards – ie in improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions intensity – so similar considerations apply. The main difference is that they are clearly not guaranteed to achieve results; on the other hand, they may be more efficient and lower cost in relation to the results they actually achieve. They are probably best seen as acting in complement with other measures, so it may not be appropriate to assess them in isolation. Information and awareness are an important part of any climate change strategy – they should at the least help to gain public support for other policy measure and may of themselves have some impact in promoting lower carbon approaches. But, as with voluntary agreements, they are unlikely on their own to have a major effect. Their importance lies in the way they fit into a wider package of measures. Therefore information and awareness and other noninterventionist approaches are important in promoting flexibility and acceptance, but insufficient on their own to make a major difference. As one can see from information provided in Table 4.1 the best scheme according total score is Removal of subsidies to fossil fuels. The second best option is subsidies to renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures. The following options are emission trading and voluntary schemes. The worst schemes according our evaluation is carbon tax and Information and awareness.


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4.3. Application of Multiply Criteria Decision Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation Policies Assessment Policy appraisal involves the consideration of alternative courses of action along multiple decision aspects, such as their cost of implementation and their cost of implementation and their positive and negative effects on the social and environmental indicators representing the main dimensions of sustainable development. In order to provide basis for selecting among the alternative policies, all these effects need to be expressed in comparable value terms. For non-traded goods such as environmental quality and human health values do not exists in the market and have to be elicited through appropriate value elicitation techniques., i.e. Contingent valuation, Hedonic pricing methods, travel cost methods, averting expenditures, cost of illness and other methods. It is possible to distinguish two main valuation approaches, which in turn specify different assessment frameworks applicable in environmental policy decision making. The first valuation method is based on neoclassical economics and provides the value information needed in Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). The main assumption is that market guided by individual preferences is the best indicator for environmental values, while social preferences resulting as the sum of individual preferences secure optimal allocation of resources and social welfare (Pearce et al., 2006; Belton, Stewart, 2002). In the case of non traded environmental and social goods, where stated preferences are missing in the markets the survey-based techniques can be used to find social preferences or these preferences can be revealed by analyzing human behaviour in relevant or surrogate markets. The values obtained from these methods can be straightforwardly used in CBA by translating each effect in monetary terms (Schulze, 1994). Therefore in CBA policy makers can make their choice on the basis of the total net cost or benefit of the considered alternative policies. CBA is routinely used in environmental policy analysis in order to secure the policy choices that are cost-effective as possible. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is aiming at providing a formal approach helping decision makers to effectively handle complex decision situations in which the level of conflict between criteria is such that intuitive solutions can not be satisfactory. MCDA is particularly suited if in addition to the conflict between criteria is significant ambiguity in measuring performances and/or in articulating preferences. Both CBA and MCDA aim at broadening the decision making perspective beyond the limits set by the market mechanism, while both rely on values attached by people with multiply points of view. In traditional CBA human values are either reflected in existing market prices or are produced by aggregating individual preferences drawn from methods of welfare economics, such as the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). MCDA values reflect human preferences and in particular the preferences of the stakeholders involved in the specific decision context. MCDA has undergone an extensive development during the last 30 years as it was for handling today’s complex problems, in which the level of conflict between multiple evaluation criteria is such that intuitive solutions are not satisfactory. MCDA is not a tool for providing the right solution in a decision problem, since no such solution exists. The solution provided might be considered best only for the stakeholders who provided their values in the form of weighting factors, while other stakeholder’s values may indicate another alternative solution. Instead, it is an aid to decision-making that helps stakeholders organize available information, think on the consequences, explore their own wishes and tolerances and minimize the possibility for a post-decision disappointment (Hobbs, Meier, 2000).

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The decision type based on MCDA method can be the following: choice, ranking, sorting and portfolio. Choice is the simplest decision – selecting the one alternative among several alternative options. Ranking – placing alternatives in a preference order for selecting those ranked at the highest places. Sorting – grouping alternatives into broad hierarchical categories, each one including a number of non-distinctive alternatives. Portfolio – the most complex decision, identifying the best combination of alternative actions by taking into account not only the alternatives individual characteristics but also their interactions and synergies. MCDA methods are classified into 2 categories based on completely different approach in preference elicitation and in the aggregation of criteria information. The first category is Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) use a compensatory approach assuming that it is possible to completely offset a disadvantage on one evaluation dimension by an advantage in another dimension. The second approach Outranking follows a non-compensatory approach denying such possibility. Weights in MAVT play the important role. They are measures of the degree each criterion influences a final statement or can be described as the voting strength. Weighting techniques are developed in the MCDA framework and are divided in two broad categories following the classification of MCDA methods: compensatory weighting techniques and non-compensatory ones. Non- compensatory weighting techniques include: direct point allocation or fixed point scoring techniques, ratio weighting techniques, resistance to change and analytical hierarchy process. Compensatory weighting techniques are: Trade-off method, Wing method, Smart method, and MACBETH and Conjoint choice method. The useful and simple tool to compare the climate change mitigation policy instruments is conjoint choice analysis techniques. The choice of climate change mitigation instrument has to carefully consider the consequences that such instruments will have on the economy, environment and social issues, i. e. three dimensions of sustainability. The climate change mitigation instrument implemented in energy sector should be evaluated in terms of the main dimensions of sustainable energy development. The optimal instrument will be one that internalizes the externalities of GHG emissions and creates no distortions in the market. Ideally such an instrument should be efficient, fair, minimize costs and uncertainty, have low administrative costs, stimulate technological innovation, have a positive effect on the job market, and guarantee the security of the supply of energy. This is not an easy task. It is likely that the solution will emerge as a compromise for the instrument, or the mix of instruments, that will guarantee the best acceptable outcome to consumers, producers, policy-makers and stakeholders in general. When policy-makers and stakeholders are asked to choose the climate change mitigation instrument(s) they have to find a solution that gives the best outcome in terms of the criteria of sustainable energy development. However, it is difficult to identify one single instrument that outperforms the others in terms of efficiency, GHG emission reduction, impact on the job market, security of energy supply, equity or energy affordability, technological innovation etc. The choice of the instrument will require some trade-offs among these criteria. Conjoint choice analysis can help investigating how policy-makers and stakeholders trade-off the criteria when designing a policy for the internalization of the externalities. In this section we first describe the conjoint choice methodology and then show how it can be applied in the energy market to highlight the criteria that are considered more important in the choice of the climate change mitigation instruments in energy sector.


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In a typical conjoint choice survey, respondents are shown various alternative representations of a good, which are described by a set of attributes, and are asked to choose the most preferred. The alternatives differ from one another in the levels taken by two or more of the attributes. This approach has the advantage of simulating real market situations, where consumers face two or more goods characterized by similar attributes, but different levels of these attributes, and are asked to choose whether to buy one of the goods or none of them. The criteria which can be considered for climate change mitigation instruments in energy sector: efficiency in terms of GHG emission reduction, equity or energy affordability, impact on the job market, technological innovation, security of energy supply etc. All these criteria represent priorities of sustainable energy development policies. In typical conjoint choice survey, respondents are shown various alternative representations of a good, which are described by a set of attributes and are asked to choose the most preferred (Markandya, Longo 2005). The policy alternatives differ from one another in the levels taken by two or more attributes. This approach has the advantage of simulating real market situations where consumers face two or more goods characterized by similar attributes, but different levels of these attributes, and are asked to choose whether to buy one of the goods or none of them. Application of Conjoint choice analysis for the selection of climate change mitigation policies in Lithuania would allow the choice of the instruments based on how the instruments performs in terms of sustainability criteria. For sustainability criteria the goals of EU sustainable development policies can be applied. Table 4.2. Criteria for selection of GHG mitigation tools in MCDA Indicators

Theme

Savings of primary energy supply

Energy efficiency

Increase in end-use energy efficiency

Energy efficiency

The share of CHP in electricity production The share of RES in primary energy supply

Energy efficiency

The share of RES in electricity generation

Renewables

Renewables

Directive or policy document The Commission’s new Green Paper on energy efficiency COM (2005) 265 2006/32/EC Directive on energy end-use efficiency and energy services 2004/8/EC Directive on the promotion of cogeneration The White Paper on renewable sources Lithuanian National energy strategy Directive 2001/77/EC on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market

Target

Date

20% from 2005 year level to reduce by 9% since 2006 Double the current share (13%) 35% 12%

2020

22,1% (7% for Lithuania)

2010

2015

2010

2010

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Dalia Streimikiene and Remigijus Čiegis Table 4.2. Continued

Indicators

Theme

The share of RES in heat production

Renewables

The share of RES in fuel used in transport

Renewables

Energy independency

Energy Security

GHG emissions

Climate change

Directive or policy document Proposal for Directive promoting the use of heat from renewable energy sources 2003/30/EC Directive on the promotion of the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels in transport The EU Green paper on European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy Kyoto protocol

Target

Date

Double the current level (11.2%) 22.4% 2% 5.75% 20%

2010

70%

2030

Reduction by 8% of year 1990 level

20082012

2005 2010 2020

4.4. EU Sustainable Development Policies Goals for Conjoint Choice Analysis The EU has established the ambitious targets for renewables, energy efficiency and GHG emission reduction (Table 4.2). Based on these targets criteria for GHG mitigation policies ranking can be selected. These main EU targets for renewables, energy efficiency and GHG mitigation can be applied as criteria for selection of GHG mitigation tools (Streimikiene, 2005). The cost efficiency indicator for multiply criteria decision analysis will be the increase of electricity costs in case of implemented GHG mitigation policies. The levels of attributes were derived based on results provided by energy modelling tools. The running of energy system modelling tools (Balance, Message, Markal etc.) allows to defined the impact of different climate change mitigation policies on the main EU energy and environmental policies targets presented in Table 4.1 (Streimikiene, 2003). The scenarios analysis was used to define the impacts of different GHG mitigation tools: CO2 emission benchmarks, GHG emission trading scheme, CO2 tax, Green tradable certificate, Feed-in prices for electricity produced from renewable energy sources, subsides to research and development. During the conjoint choice experiment 20 respondents were surveyed seeking to define their preferences for climate change mitigation tools selection in Lithuania. The questionnaire was prepared which was divided into three parts. The firs part of the questionnaire comprises six choice questions. Each choice question presents respondents with two hypothetical policies (Policy A and Policy B). Each policy is described by the attributes described above. In each choice exercise Policy A differs from Policy B in the level of two or more attributes. For each pair respondents are asked to choose the policy they found more attractive and to choose among two policies and the option of not implementing any policy. The answering the conjoint choice question requires trading off the attributes of the alternatives under


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consideration. The second part of the questionnaire asks debriefing questions in order to flag those respondents that did not fully understand the choice exercises. Respondents are further asked to rank the importance of the attributes presented in the choice exercises in order to compare the results from the choice exercises. The last part of survey instrument asks respondents to state which policy instruments they would prefer.

5. POST-KYOTO CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION APPROACH AND IMPACT ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 5.1. Review of Post-Kyoto Climate Change Mitigation Approaches The Kyoto Protocol to United nation Framework Convention on Climate Change came into force on 16 February 2005. The current world’s greatest GHG emission source (USA) and the anticipated larger sources of GHG emission in the future (China and India) are not parties of Kyoto protocol. These omissions and the Kyoto Protocol termination in 2012 have given rise to a large number of proposed international climate policy architectures. We assume that the 2°C target agreed by the European Council in 1996 should be kept within reach. It roughly corresponds to stabilization of CO2 concentrations below 450 ppmv. This means that developed country emission reductions would need to be in the range of roughly 20% below 1990 levels in 2020. Therefore EU post-Kyoto GHGs mitigation target is to cut the greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, shifting to 30 percent if other major world polluters join in. The probable EU target for 2050 would make reduction of GHG emission by 60-80% percent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. For instance, the EU needs to avoid that it is seen as pushing developing countries into commitments, as it unintentionally was the case at COP8 in New Delhi. At that meeting, the EU called for a "dialogue to kick off a process for future action" stating explicitly that such dialogue would not be about developing country commitments. Still, some developing countries interpreted this (intentionally or inadvertently) as a call for developing country commitments and rejected inclusion of any reference to future actions in the political declaration of that conference. This incident had negative impact on the relationship between the EU and developing countries. In our article we will use phrase “climate policy architectures” to refer to overarching policy frameworks for addressing global climate change through international agreements. More than 50 proposals can be find in literature and policy documents. The climate policy architectures can be classified according to policy mechanism or the key avenue through which the architecture would achieve reductions in global GHG emissions. Three main policy mechanism can be applied: emission targets and timetables by which those targets must be attained; harmonized domestic policies and measures, financial and technological transfers from industrialized to developing countries. In many cases proposed policy architectures involve more than one policy mechanism. For example Kyoto protocol seeks to achieve GHG emission reductions primarily through the international targets and timetables but it includes a CDM that facilitates financial and technological transfers from industrialized to developing countries.


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Therefore the main post-Kyoto architectures can be described in the following way (Bodansky 2004): •

•

•

Targets and Timetables: Specific emissions targets are imposed on each participating country over a certain period. These proposals almost always include flexibility mechanisms, such as emissions trading. Harmonized Domestic Policies and Measures: The focus is on specific national level policy actions, without defining emissions targets. A coordinated carbon tax collected by each national government would be an example of this. Resource Transfer: Technology and financial flows are mobilized from industrialized to developing countries. The Clean Development Mechanism within the Kyoto Protocol exemplifies this category.

A comprehensive package of commitments can be formulated choosing from these options (Table 5.1). Table 5.1. Summary of future types of commitments (German Federal Environmental Agency, 2005) Quantified emission reduction commitments Action oriented commitment

Actions by industrialized countries aimed at avoiding future developing country emissions Actions taken by developing countries

1.Binding absolute emission reduction targets 2. Flexible emission targets (non binding, positively binding, dual targets, price caps, intensity targets) 3. Enhanced coordinated technology R&D efforts 4. Coordinated policies and measures (technology standards, taxes, menu of policies and measures) 5. Mandatory financial contributions to funds, technology transfers 6. Greening of investment flows 7. Sustainable development policies and measures 8. Enhanced participation in an extended CDM

Anticipated post-Kyoto climate policy architectures include wide range of quantified emission commitments. The most prominent type of commitment is the binding absolute emission reduction targets as included in the Kyoto Protocol for Annex I countries. Such targets provide certainty about future emission levels of the participating countries (assuming targets will be met). The target can be reached in a flexible manner across greenhouse gases and sectors as well as across borders through emission trading and/or project based mechanisms (Joint Implementation and the clean development mechanism). These targets could be applied for Annex I as well as Non-Annex I countries in the future. Alternatively, countries could take on flexible emission targets, including the following options (German Federal Environmental Agency, 2005): •

Non-binding emission targets, meaning that not reaching them has no consequences. Here emission trading could not be applied.

Sustainable Energy Development and Climate Change Mitigation •

•

• •

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"Positively binding" emission targets, meaning that additional emission rights can be sold, if the target is reached, but no additional emission rights have to be bought, if no rights have been sold and the target is still not met. "Dual" targets, meaning that two targets are defined, a "selling target", below which emission rights can be sold, and a "buying target", above which emission rights have to be bought (Winkler at la, 2002). "Price cap", meaning that an unlimited number of additional emission rights is provided at a given maximum price. Dynamic targets, meaning that targets are expressed as dynamic variables as a function of the GDP ("intensity targets") or variables of physical production (e.g. emissions per tonne of steel produced).

All of these options aim at providing more flexibility to the countries, to avoid extremely high costs, if the economic development and therefore emission development is different than expected at the time of setting the target. However, providing this flexibility reduces the certainty that a given emission level is really reached. The increased certainty in costs is traded against an increased uncertainty in the total resulting emissions. Another option would be to enhance and coordinate technology research, development and deployment efforts. Such activities would influence the development of new technology that will be needed to reduce emissions in the long-term. But such activities would have less measurable effects on short-term emission levels. As another alternative, countries could agree on coordinated policies and measures such as technology standards or taxes on the emission of greenhouse gases. In the negotiations toward Kyoto, policies and measures were rejected by many countries, because they were seen as prescriptive and leaving less flexibility to the countries compared to emission reduction targets. To overcome this barrier, a menu of the best practice policies and measures could be provided, of which countries have to choose those that best fit their national circumstances. In such a system, it would be difficult to compare the stringency of the measures between countries. A system solely based on policies and measures would also not allow using the flexibility mechanisms such as emissions trading. Two options for commitments for developed countries aim at limiting emissions in developing countries (German Federal Environmental Agency, 2005). One would be mandatory contributions to funds and technology transfer. Such funds would finance emissions reduction projects or adaptation activities. The current system of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol already includes some funds and project activities, but contributions to and participation in those are mostly voluntary. It also includes provisions for technology transfer, but volumes of financial flows are not defined. A second option for commitments for developed countries that aim at limiting emissions in developing countries would be the "greening of investment flows". These are those flows of resources that are currently transferred from developed to developing countries through development banks and export credit agencies. An option particularly for developing countries, would be the commitment to adopt sustainable development policies and measures. In this approach, development objectives are formulated first. In a second step, it is considered how climate policies can support these development goals. This approach is very attractive to developing


52

countries as it focuses on their main concern of (sustainable) development. The major difficulty lies in the assessment of whether these activities are additional to what would have happened otherwise, whether the country is showing action. This approach is seen as a possible first step for Non-Annex I countries into more comprehensive action. Another option for developing countries could be to participate in an enhanced CDM, which would allow sectoral government programmes to be eligible CDM projects. Comprehensive climate change action would be rewarded (in part) as emission reduction credits that can be sold on the market. It remains to be seen how such an enlarged CDM can be monitored and how the baselines would be set. The future climate architectures include five basic degrees of developing country participation: •

• • • •

None: No policy requirements and no emission reductions are imposed on developing countries, although they may receive low-carbon technology or financial aid from industrialized countries. The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is an example. Voluntary: Developing countries can choose whether to undertake commitments or not, with the expectation that some might do so. Differentiated: Developing countries have requirements, but they are different from those of industrialized nations over the entire time frame of the proposal. Conditional: Countries take on graduated requirements as they meet certain conditions, such as a level of per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) or emissions. Full: The proposal does not have different requirements for countries classified as developing or industrialized. These proposals may have facets that depend on GDP, however.

Of the 50 proposed policy architectures reviewed here, 38 rely primarily on targets and timetables to achieve GHG emissions reductions. Far fewer architectures center on harmonized domestic policies and measures (8), and even fewer on technology and/or financial transfers from industrialized to developing countries (4). Anticipated developing country participation also varies among proposed architectures. Most of the proposals envision developing country participation that is either differentiated (25) or conditional (11). Fewer would fall within the other categories defined here: none (8); voluntary (1); and full (5). The overview of the main approaches on how to design a post Kyoto commitments is provided below. The term "Approach" or architecture encompasses in principle the conceptual idea of how a post –Kyoto international climate policy can be designed. Currently, a number of such approaches are developed by different organisations. The most popular approach in scientific literature and UNFCCC documents is continuing the Kyoto approach. It includes many different architectures based on targets and timetables. The most known are: Dasgupta Two-Part Commitment for industrialized countries, Aldy Hybrid International Emission Trading, Gupta KISS, Agarwal Per Capita Allocation, Depledge Extending Emission Caps to Developing countries etc.. Continuing Kyoto: (Bodansky, 2004). The Kyoto Protocol provides a very flexible structure, which could incorporate many of the approaches described above. For example,


53

the converging per capita emissions or intensity targets could be included in a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Essentially, most other approaches could be called "Continuing Kyoto". When referring to "Continuing Kyoto" or "increasing participation", often the key features of the Kyoto Protocol are meant, which include: • • • •

Maintaining two groups of countries, Annex I and Non-Annex I, assuming that gradually countries move into Annex I Binding absolute emissions reduction targets for Annex I countries for a basket of greenhouse gases Flexibility through Kyoto Mechanisms, such as emissions trading (ET), Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development mechanism (CDM) Some also refer to a "Kyoto Plus" approach, where the main features are kept and only minor additional changes are made. Intensity targets instead of absolute targets or other minor adjustments such as "price caps" or only "positively binding targets" can be introduced as an interim measure for some or all developing countries.

Multistage Approach: (Halsnes, Olhoff, 2005). The "multistage approach" assumes that countries gradually move through several stages in between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries with respect to increasing stringency, as opposed to the current system of two stages (Annex I and Non-Annex I). This approach would reflect that countries today have different levels of economic development and therefore have different obligations under a future climate treaty. This approach was developed by German company ECOFYS (Hohne et al, 2004) and in literature is called Germany multistage approach. The starting point for grouping countries is to assess their characteristics and to define, to what stage they best correspond. Usually a country "graduates" into the next stage, when it exceeds a certain threshold expressed in, e.g., emissions per capita or GDP per capita. Such multistage approaches are developed by a number of organizations. One option would be to define four such stages e.g.: • • • •

No Commitments Stage, where countries have no binding emission obligations (as the current Non-Annex I) Decarbonisation Stage, where countries will have GHG intensity targets expressed as emissions per GDP Stabilization Stage, where countries stabilize their absolute emissions Reduction Stage, where countries need to reduce their absolute emissions

The critical issue about this approach is to ensure that a sufficient number of countries move to higher stages. Regular review of each country's situation and assessment whether it graduates into the next stage would be necessary. Contraction and Convergence: (Claussen, McNeilly, 1998; GCI, 1996). This approach was developed by Global Commons Institute (GCI). With the "Contraction and Convergence" approach, all countries would agree on a global target of, e.g., 450 ppmv stable concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. They would also agree on a path of yearly global emissions that lead to that concentration level (contraction). In a second step, the global emission limit for each year would be shared among all countries, including

54


developing countries, so that per-capita emissions converge by a specific date, e.g. 2050 (convergence). The defined targets for each country can be reviewed and revised when new scientific findings require it. This approach allows for full emissions trading. As all countries participate, those countries with less allowances than needed (e.g. industrialized countries) can buy allowances from other countries that receive excess allowances (e.g. least developed countries). If stringent stabilization levels such as 450 ppmv CO2 are to be reached, convergence to a per capita emission level below current Non-Annex I average is needed. Consequently, benefits from transfer of resources will be limited to the least developed countries and to the first decades of operation of the system. This approach has very simple rules. Two major issues need to be negotiated and agreed upon: the target atmospheric concentration of CO2 and the date, at which the entitlements would converge at equal per capita allocations. Multi-Sector Convergence: (Sijm et al, 2001). The "multi-sector convergence" approach applies the principle of converging per-capita emissions to emissions of individual sectors and not on the national level (as the contraction and convergence approach). High-emission countries have sectoral level convergence in allocations and developing country participation conditional on becoming high-emission country. The convergence level for each sector and the date when convergence should be achieved are defined beforehand based on technical potential. They are also open to political negotiations. This approach can in principle be applied on a global scale. It can include all greenhouse emissions gases currently covered under the Kyoto Protocol. The multi-sector convergence approach takes into consideration the different emissions structures of the countries. It can take into account that emissions from some sectors, e.g. transport, are difficult to reduce (resulting in a high sector per-capita convergence level), while emissions in other sectors, e.g. from landfills, are relatively easy to reduce (resulting in low sector per-capita convergence levels). Under the multi-sector convergence approach, a country with high landfill emissions has to reduce emissions more than a country with high transport emissions. Brazilian Proposal: (Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology, 2000). In the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol, the Brazilian government suggested a method to share emission reductions amongst countries. It was proposed to attribute responsibilities to countries according to the impact of their historical emissions on the surface temperature change and to share emission reduction efforts proportional to their historical contribution. The approach requires a complex analysis to identify historic emissions and attribute country's contributions to temperature change, which is subject to further research. In general, countries with a longer process of industrialization and thus a longer record of greenhouse gas emissions will have a greater share of responsibility for emission reductions than countries where industrialization started later. The proposal was originally designed for covering Annex I countries. However, it could theoretically be applied to other countries as well. Triptych Approach: (Hohne et al, 2004). The Triptych approach developed by University of Utrecht and is based on a method to share emission allowances among a group of countries, based on sectoral considerations. The approach can theoretically be applied to any group of countries. The Triptych approach originally distinguished three broad emission sectors: the power sector, the sector of energy-intensive industries and the 'domestic' sectors (e.g. residential and transport emissions). The selection of these sectors was based on a number of differences in national circumstances raised in the negotiations that


55

are relevant to emissions and emission reduction potentials: differences in standard of living, in fuel mix for the generation of electricity, in economic structure and the competitiveness of internationally-oriented industries. The approach was later extended to include also include deforestation and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The emissions of the sectors are treated differently: For electricity production and industrial production, a growth in the physical production is assumed together with an improvement in production efficiency. This takes into account the need for economic development. For the 'domestic' sectors, convergence of per-capita emissions is assumed. This takes into account the converging living standard of the countries. The allowances of the sectors are added up to a fixed national allowance for each country. Only one national target per country is proposed, no sectoral targets, to allow countries the flexibility to pursue any cost-effective emission reduction strategy. Commitment to Human Development with Low Emissions: (Pan, 2003). The "commitment to human development with low emissions" approach draws a line between basic and luxury goods of human beings and associated emissions. Having a decent living standard and meeting human being basic needs would not result in taking on commitments to reduce greenhouse gases. The problem with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions lies within the consumption of luxury goods that go beyond the basic needs and thus generate GHG emissions that are not necessary. Unresolved in this approach is the line between basic and luxury consumption and thus basic and luxury GHG emissions. In addition, those products and services need to be identified, that would be acceptable under a decent living standard and which would not.

5.2. The Main Criteria for Selecting the Future International Climate Change Mitigation Regimes There are different expectations of countries or country groups towards a future international climate regime. First a detailed list of criteria was developed against which various approaches can be checked (German Federal Environmental Agency, 2005; Bodansky, 2004). The checklist developed differentiates between the main criteria of sustainable energy development: Acceptability or environmental criteria, Availability or economic criteria, Accessibility or social (political from international perspective) criteria. Starting from the identified criteria, selected country perspectives (EU, USA, Advanced Developing Countries & Least Developed Countries) were then summarized (Table 5.2) and possible areas of conflict between different groups of countries were identified (German Federal Environmental Agency, 2005) based on the 5 star rating. Where: ***** **** *** ** *

"Fulfilment of the criterion is very important for the player" "Fulfilment of the criterion is quite important for the player" "Fulfilment of the criterion important for the player" "Player is indifferent towards this criterion" "Fulfilment of the criterion is not desired by the player"

As one can see from Table 5.2 general points of agreement can be observed. Several criteria seem to be important for all major players considered here. Such criteria should be

56


fulfilled by any future regime; they are uncontroversial. The uncontroversial environmental criteria include the comprehensiveness of the systems, and the less important avoiding leakage effects and unintentional "hot air". Many countries would also subscribe to most of the economic criteria such as minimizing negative economic effects, generating positive economic side effects, stimulating technological change and providing incentives for technology spillover, accounting for structural differences of countries and certainty about costs. The equity principles "capability" and "comparable efforts" are also generally accepted. As long as these criteria are formulated in such general way, they are generally acceptable. But it depends on the details of the future regime, whether countries will view these criteria as fulfilled or not. Potential conflicts lie in other criteria. Countries or country groups have different potential expectations of a future commitments regime and for some criteria views strongly oppose. From the assessment presented, the four major conflicts that need to be addressed with care in future climate negotiations. They are: economic efficiency versus environmental effectiveness, involvement of developing countries, mitigation versus adaptation and extension of Kyoto or development of new Protocol. The most prominent conflict lies within the fundamental approach to the problem of climate change: Some players, most prominently the USA, approach it as an economic problem. To keep the costs for reducing GHG emissions at a minimum bearable level has highest priority. Emphasis is given to short-term economic considerations rather than to longterm environmental objectives. Hence, emission reductions are not treated with urgency, one is preparing to act later through, e.g. technology development. Some other players, in particular the EU and LDCs, put instead high priority to the environmental aspect of the problem and stress the urgency to act. For these groups of countries, keeping global emissions low has the highest priority. Those countries would prefer to work towards defining a joint long-term goal. This fundamental conflict is between the USA and advanced developing countries on the one side and the EU and least developed countries on the other side. The UNFCCC states that Parties should protect the climate system "in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof." With the Kyoto Protocol, such a first step for Annex I countries was negotiated. Since the Kyoto Protocol still has not entered into force, two fundamentally different positions still exist: On the one hand, the group of developing countries is of the view that industrialized countries have not yet "taken the lead" and should commit to further reductions due to the fact that they started emitting greenhouse gases many decades ago and therefore carry most historic responsibility. Developing countries will only commit to act, once proven progress has been made by Annex I countries to reduce emissions. On this conflicting issue, which is essentially between the USA (and to a lesser extent the EU) and advanced developing countries, a compromise has to be found.


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Table 5.2. Assessment of countries' perceived emphasis on three As criteria for future climate regimes Category of criteria Sub-criteria

EU27

USA

Advanced developing countries (ADCs)

Least developed countries (LDCs0

Putting emphasis on environmental effectiveness

*****

*

**

***

Participation of industrialized countries

****

**

*****

*****

Encouraging Early Action

***

****

**

**

Involvement of developing countries

****

****** *

*

Avoiding leakage effects

****

***

-

-

Avoiding unintentional "hot air"

**

**

**

**

Integrating adaptation and sustainable development Economic criteria (Availability) Minimizing negative economic effects

**

**

*****

*****

****

***** *****

*****

****

**

*****

Stimulating technological change and providing incentives for technology spillover

****

***** ****

****

Accounting for structural differences between countries

*****

***** *****

*****

Certainty about costs

****

***** ****

**

Meeting own equity principle "Needs"

****

***** *****

*****

Meeting equity principle "Capability"

****

**

*****

*****

*****

**

*****

*****

Meeting equity principle "Equal rights"

**

*

***

****

Meeting equity principle "Comparable efforts"

*****

**

****

****

Environmental criteria (Acceptability)

Promoting growth of developing countries

*****

Social or political criteria (Accessibility)

Meeting equity principle "Responsibility"


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Another conflict area is the relation between mitigation and adaptation. Some countries are more vulnerable than others to climate change, e.g. countries with low lying coastal areas. In most cases, these countries do not have the financial resources to cope with the effects of climate change themselves such as sea level rise, accelerated soil erosion and increased risks of storm flooding. They therefore need considerable financial assistance today or in the very near future. These most vulnerable and affected countries therefore call for early and effective adaptation measures as part of their sustainable development and argue a future climate change regime should support their sustainable development in general. For another group of countries, mitigation, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, is of priority rather than adaptation. They argue that mitigation measures are the best means to adapt to climate change, thus a future regime should focus on further reducing emissions. Those countries are not completely against adaptation measures but the immediate need for adaptation with its immediate effects needs to be balanced with mitigation efforts, which show an effect only with some time delay. Attention on adaptation should not distract from the need to reduce emissions. This fundamental conflict is between the USA and the EU on the one side and the developing countries on the other. Some countries, lead by the EU, clearly stated that a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is the only way forward in international climate policy. Building upon the existing elements and the institutional structure would avoid time-consuming and costly future negotiations on a completely new institutional setup. One should make use of as many elements (technical and institutional structures) of the Kyoto Protocol as possible when strengthening the overall mitigation efforts. Some other countries, lead by the USA, have taken a very different position, arguing that the Kyoto Protocol includes too many flaws and does not provide a good basis for a continued discussion on future actions to mitigate climate change. Abandoning the Kyoto Protocol, setting up some other mechanism is therefore favoured by those countries. Strong, almost emotional sentiments are brought forward in favour or against the Kyoto Protocol. Yet it is unclear, exactly which elements are to be rejected and which could possibly be kept. The main conflict is between USA and EU. As these conflicts exists between group of countries seeking to evaluate post-Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures the aforementioned criteria will be applied to different architectures and rating according 3 As will be provided for groups of countries following the same methodology described in Chapter 4 on evaluation of local climate change mitigation policies. The 5 star rating will be applied following the methodology developed in WEC study (WEC, 2007).

5.3. Assessment of Post-Kyoto Climate Change Mitigation Regimes Based on Sustainability Criteria The main approaches of post-Kyoto commitment scheme discussed in scientific literature and political documents can be grouped into several sets: •

Continuing Kyoto by accepting biding absolute emission reduction targets and flexible targets foe developing countries including non-biding targets, positively


• •

• •

•

•

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binding or no lose targets, dual targets, price caps, hybrid approach of cap and price restrictions, dynamic targets, intensity targets etc. Multistage approach assuming that countries gradually move through several stages in between Annex I and non-Annex I countries with respect of increasing stringency. Contraction and Convergence approach meaning that all countries would agree on a global target of stable concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and they would also agree on a path of yearly global emissions that lead to that concentration level and the global emission limit will be shared among all countries so that per capita emissions converge by a specific date. Multi-Sector Convergence approach applies the principle of converging per capita emissions to emissions of individual sectors and not on the national level. Brazilian proposal is based on the method to share emission reductions amongst countries according to the impact of their historical emissions on the surface temperature change and to share responsibilities proportionally to their historical contributions. Triptych Approach is a method to share emission allowances among group of countries based on sectoral considerations including the power sector, energyintensive industries and the domestic sectors. Commitment to Human Development with Low Emissions approach draws a line between basic and luxury goods of human beings basic needs and associated emissions.

Further the evaluation of post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes will be evaluated according three A’s (Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility) for 3 groups of countries (EU27, USA, Advanced developing countries and Least developed countries). The main subcriteria for Environmental, economic and social criteria are provided in Table 5.2. The evaluation was carried out on 5 star rating system introduced by WEC and applied for national climate change mitigation policies evaluation in study “ Energy and Climate Change Study” where: ***** The impact of international climate change mitigation regime on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is very positive for the group of countries; **** The impact of international climate change mitigation regime on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is good for the group of countries; *** The impact of international climate change mitigation regime on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is poor for the group of countries; ** The impact of international climate change mitigation regime on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is week for the group of countries; * The impact of international climate change mitigation regime on Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility is negative for the group of countries. The evaluation have been made based on the position of group of countries and possible conflicts described in previous chapter. The Continuing Kyoto is the approach widely accepted by EU 27 and some developed and least developed countries. Some other countries mainly lead by USA are arguing that

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Kyoto Protocol includes too many flaws and does not provide good basis for negotiation. USA is treating Kyoto Protocol and continuing Kyoto negatively because of negative impact on economic development, energy affordability and accessibility because of energy price increase in case of Kyoto Protocol restrictions implemented in USA economy. Also official opinion in USA is negative regarding environmental acceptability of Kyoto protocol process therefore the scoring provided in Table 5.3 indicates very low rating according all As for USA. Completely different situation is obtained for scoring this architecture for EU 27 according sustainable energy development criteria. The EU 27 clearly stated that a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is the best way forward in international climate policy from environmental, economic and social-political point of view. For the Least Developed Countries the score is quite high as continuing Kyoto approach involve nonbinding, no-lose or conditional targets in extended Kyoto protocol climate architecture. The situation with Advanced Developing Countries is different as for these countries the requirement to take commitments for GHG emission reduction is foreseen therefore the impact of this climate change mitigation regime will have negative impact of economic growth of these countries as well on energy price increase and would cause problems of energy accessibility and affordability. The total score of the scheme for all groups of countries according all criteria is 40. Multistage approach is scored badly for USA and Advanced Developing Countries but for different reasons. For USA the multistage approach is evaluated poorly because the GHG emission per capita or GDP per capita are the main characteristics to group countries and impose the commitments of different stringency. According this approach USA commitments should be the most stringent one. For ADC the economic growth would put them from nonAnnex I to Annex I and the GHG emission commitments would be imposed on these countries consequently having negative impact on economic growth and increase in energy price, therefore according Availability and Accessibility criteria this scheme is scored badly for this group of countries. For LDCs the Multistage approach has received quite high scores as they will not be forced to take commitments for GHG emission reductions because of low GDP or GHG emissions per capita. For EU 27 this approach is scored similarly like for LDCs but of course because of different reasons. The EU 27 is not sure that this approach is able to ensure that sufficient number of countries move to knew higher stages and additional costs would be needed to maintain this scheme because of monitoring and assessment of countries required to transfer them to new higher stages. The total score of the scheme for all groups of countries according all criteria is 24.


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Table 5.3. Assessment of countries' perceived emphasis on criteria for future climate regimes Category of criteria EU27 USA Advanced Least developed Continuing Kyoto or introducing binding absolute, flexible emission reduction targets Acceptability ***** * *** ***** Availability ***** * ** ***** Accessibility ***** * ** ***** Total score: 40 15 3 7 15 Multistage approach Acceptability *** * * *** Availability *** * * *** Accessibility *** * * *** Total score: 24 9 3 3 9 Contraction and Convergence Acceptability ** * * ** Availability ** * * ** Accessibility ** * * * Total score: 17 6 3 3 5 Brazilian Proposal Acceptability * ** ***** **** Availability * ** ***** **** Accessibility * ** ***** **** Total score: 18 3 6 5 4 Triptych Approach Acceptability *** * ** *** Availability *** * ** *** Accessibility *** * ** ** Total score: 26 9 3 6 8 Multi-Sector Convergence Acceptability *** * ** *** Availability *** * ** *** Accessibility *** * ** ** Total score: 26 9 3 6 8 Commitment to Human Development with Low Emissions Acceptability ** * *** ***** Availability ** * *** ***** Accessibility ** * **** ***** Total score: 34 6 3 10 15

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Contraction and Convergence approach based on an equal per capita allocation in schemes based on entitlements does not favour industrialized countries. This scheme for example would call for the USA to reduce its present emissions by over 90% (KuntsiReunanen, Luukkanen, 2006). In this respect , USA fares worse than other industrialized countries which currently have lower per capita emissions. Therefore this scheme scores badly for USA according all criteria. According Contraction and Convergence approach some advanced developing countries (Thailand, Venezuela, China etc) with their relatively high per capita emissions are required to start reducing their emission intensities immediately. A western type of industrialization based on heavy industry fossil fuel use and rapidly increasing motorized private transport is not compatible with contraction and convergence approach therefore for ADC this scheme scores poorly. For LDCs as this model does not support a development path for developing countries similar to that taken by many industrialized countries it does not fulfil the social and political criteria especially equity one. For EU 27 this approach would require EU member states to follow their current downward trend which can be achieved by continues structural change in the production system. Economic growth has to continue its shifts towards lighter sectors of economy such as services and information and communication technologies however more strict and expensive measures for energy saving needs to be introduced having impact on economic growth and competitiveness of EU economy. The total score of the scheme for all groups of countries according all criteria is 17. According Brazilian proposal countries with longer process of industrialization and longer record of industrialization will have a greater share of responsibility for emission reductions than countries where industrialization started later. This approach receives the highest score for ADCs group and LDCs. The lowest score is for EU 27 as the industrialization was started in Europe firstly. The total score of the scheme is 18. The Triptych approach is the most sophisticated approach to share emission allowances between countries base on sectoral considerations. An earlier version of Triptych approach have been implemented in EU successfully when sharing the Kyoto targets and can be successfully applied globally. Due to sectoral detail it accommodates many national circumstances and concerns of many countries. Countries that rely on coal (like China or India) may further use coal but have to increase their efficiency. Countries that rely on the export of energy intensive goods may continue to produce those but have to improve their efficiency. The general standard of living and individual consumption would converge. The Triptych parameters have to be set in a relatively stringent way to leave room for production growth. Applying this approach leads to substantial reduction requirements for industrialized countries, in particular those countries with carbon intensive industries including USA and new EU member states. Therefore the scheme is scored at low score for USA and LDCs. For EU this approach though previously successfully applied within EU is not very welcomed because of complexity and high implementation costs including data collection, analysis, evaluation, verification and monitoring therefore the rating is lower than continuing Kyoto approach. For LDCs the Triptych approach allows for incorporating economic growth and improving efficiency and allows substantial emission increase for LDCs however mostly below their reference scenario. The total score of the scheme for all groups of countries according all criteria is 26. Multi-Sector convergence approach takes into account different emission structures of the countries and is quite similar to Triptych approach which is more sophisticated. This


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approach is favourable to LDCs and least favourable for USA. The total score of the scheme for all groups of countries according all criteria is the same as for Triptych approach - 26. Commitment to Human Development with Low Emissions approach implies the requirement to reduce consumption of luxury goods that go beyond the basic needs this approached is scored especially badly for USA and very well for LDCs. For ADCs this approach is also scored well as these countries do not need to take strict GHG emission obligation now. For EU 27 this scheme does not seem very attractive because of problems related with requirements to draw the line between basic and luxury consumption and to collect not transparent data and to identify those products and services that would be acceptable under a decent living standards etc. The total score of the scheme for all groups of countries according all criteria is quite high – 34 however the implementation of this scheme seems not realistic because of technical issues. As one can see from data presented in Table 5.3 Continuing Kyoto or introduction of legally binding targets for Annex I countries and non-binding targets for Annex I countries is the best option for all group of countries according three dimensions of sustainable energy development (Acceptability, Availability and Accessibility) as the total score is 40. The lowest score received Contraction and Convergence approach. The results of evaluation for Multistage, Triptych and Multi-sector schemes are similar. The high scoring of Commitment to Human Development with Low Emissions approach was received because of very high scoring for LDCs and ADCs.

CONCLUSION 1. The core tenet of sustainable energy development is the integration of economic, social and environmental concerns in energy policy making. Applying this mode of thinking – seeing climate change through a sustainable energy development lens could help in tackling the climate change mitigation in harmonized way with other policies targeting sustainable energy development targets, achieve synergies in these policies and ensure that proposed climate change mitigation regimes would have positive impact on sustainable energy development. 2. The framework of sustainable energy indicators developed for climate change and clean energy priority area within EU sustainable development strategy was extended by integrating other priority areas of EU sustainable development strategy relevant to energy sector. The indicators framework developed in the article allows to indicate the interlinkages between the indicators and consequently between priority areas in EU Sustainable development strategy and to develop policy actions or response actions on targeted indicators (addressing priority targets) and to define the interaction between policies aiming at different goals established by EU sustainable development strategy. 3. The proposed framework of indicators can be extended further by integrating the other priority targets in the comprehensive framework of EU sustainable development indicators. The initial set of indicators proposed in the article is indicators of sustainable energy development. The energy is the main connecting chain in EU sustainable development strategy between priorities as energy


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4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

production and use cause the significant impact on environment, climate change, human health, use of natural resources, sustainable production and consumption patterns and social welfare therefore is crucial for achievement of EU sustainable development goals. The comprehensive framework of indicators would help to maximize positive synergies and reduce trade-offs between policies targeting different goals of sustainable development and GHG emission reduction. Climate change mitigation policies and measures implemented in Baltic States are mainly driven by EU accession. The measures implemented to increase use of renewable energy sources and promote energy efficiency have significant impact on GHG emission reduction in Baltic States therefore the synergy effect of implementing EU sustainable energy development targets was achieved for GHG emission reduction. The policy makers need to select the best climate change mitigation tool based on several criteria of sustainable energy development encompassing economic, social and environmental one. When policy-makers are asked to choose the instruments for climate change mitigation they have to find a solution that gives the best outcome in terms of sustainability and EU sustainable energy policy priorities. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis applied for elicitation of decision makers preferences allow to achieve the synergy in policies aiming energy and environmental targets applying the harmonized policy approach. The EU sustainable energy policy targets (promotion of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures, increase of energy security) are closely interrelated with EU environmental policies aiming at GHG emission reduction therefore one of the Multiply decision aiding tools (Conjoint choice experiment) was successfully applied in selecting climate change mitigation policies in Lithuania. The most important criteria for selection of GHG mitigation instruments were the increase in electricity prices. The second most important instrument is GHG emission reduction. The following criteria according importance are security of supply and energy efficiency. The increase in use of renewable energy sources is the least criteria according importance for selection of climate change mitigation tool. Though the respondents revealed their preferences for policy tools having the least impact on energy price increase all respondents revealed the preference to choose climate change mitigation tool instead of doing nothing alternative available in conjoint choice experiment. The results reported here are preliminary and should be considered with great caution by the reader. The further surveys will be performed including more respondents. At present most assessments of climate change measures are partial and incomplete. A more holistic assessment – against all three As approach developed by WEC would not only ensure that the measures were likely to be more effective in a wider sense in promoting sustainable development, but would also help make them more viable in a narrower sense – that is, more acceptable to those affected and therefore easier to introduce and get supported – and thus more likely to achieve their environmental goals. A range of different types of measure, affecting different areas and applied in different ways has been used. There are significant differences between countries,


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explained in many cases by their particular national circumstances. Broadly speaking, the main considerations are relevant to the choice of policy are economic development; national resources; geography; and policy preferences. However, it is also clear that the measures may vary significantly in their overall impact on the three A’s and it is not always clear that countries have given their measures full consideration and analysis against these criteria. 12. The analysis of possible post-Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures was performed based on criteria of sustainable energy development. Several criteria are perceived important by all major countries or country groups. These uncontroversial criteria should always be satisfied when designing a future international climate regime and their include economic, environmental, social and environmental criteria. 13. Based on our analysis of international post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes according 3 As the most suitable future regime would be flexible emission reduction targets via continuing Kyoto approach. Among flexible emission reduction targets – the hybrid approach looks the most attractive according three A. This approach would not force policy makers to choose between caps on emissions or coordinating emission taxes. Governments would only set targets for emissions quantities and also agree on a maximum price for the tradable permits. In effect, the target price would cap the cost of acquiring permits and thus also give private corporations greater surety about the cost of compliance. In practice, this approach provides advantages relative to the critical criteria of sustainable energy development: acceptability, accessibility and availability.

REFERENCES Andersen, M. S. (2000). Designing and introducing green taxes: institutional dimensions. In M. S. Andersen, & R. U. Sprenger (Eds.), Market-based instruments for environmental management. Politics and Institutions. (pp. 27-39). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Atkinson, S. E., & Tietenberg, T. H. (1991). Market failure in incentive-based regulations: The case of emission trading. Journl of Environmental Economics and Management, 21, 17–31. Belton, V., & Stewart, T. J. (2002). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An integrated approach. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publisher. Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology. (2000). Technical note on the time-dependent relationship between emissions of greenhouse gases and climate change. Rio. Bodansky, D. (2004). International efforts beyond 2012: a survey of approaches. Arlington: Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Claussen, E., & McNeilly, L. (1998). Equity and global climate change. The complex elements of global fairness. Arlington: Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Cowen, T. (1988). The theory of market failure. Fairfax, Virginia. Daly, H. E. (1984). Alternative Strategies for Integration Economics and Ecology. In: A. M. Janson (Ed), Integration of Economy and Ecology. An outlook for Eightien Proceedings from Wallenburg Symposium (pp.32-46). Stockholm.

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European Union (EU). (1997). Energy for the Future: Renewable Sources of Energy, White paper for a Community Strategy and action Plan, COM (97) 599 final. Brussels. European Union (EU). ( 2005). Green Paper on Energy Efficiency or Doing More with Less, COM (2005), 265 final. Brussels. European Union (EU). (2006). Green paper on an energy strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy, COM (2006) 0105. Brussels. Faure, M., & Skogh, G. (2003). The economic analysis of environmental policy and law. An introduction. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. German Federal Environmental Agency. (2005). Options for second commitment period of the Kyoto protocol. Bonn. Global Commons Institute (GCI). (1996). Draft proposals for the climate change Protocol based on contraction and convergence. London. Halsnes, K., & Olhoff, A. (2005). International markets on greenhouse gas emission reduction policies – possibilities for integrating developing countries. Energy policy, 33, 23132325. Hobbs, B., & Meier P. (2000). Energy decision and environment: a guide to the use of multicriteria methods. Dordreht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Hohne, N., Phylipsen, D., Ullrich, S., & Blok, K. (2004). Options for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Cologne, Germany: ECOFYS. Hogg, D. (2000). The limitations of economic instruments as stimuli for technical change, technological change and innovation. In Andersen, M. S., & R. U. Sprenger (Eds.), Market-based instruments for environmental management. Politics and Institutions. (pp. 87-92). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Hotteling, H. (1931). Economics of exhaustible resources. Journal of Political Economy, 39, 137-175. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2005). Energy indicators for sustainable development: guidelines and methodologies. Vienna. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC). (2001). Climate Change. IPCC Third Assessment Report. Mitigation. Geneva: UNEP. Johansson, T., & J. Goldemberg (Eds). (2002). Energy for sustainable development. New York: UNDP. Sijm, J., Jansen J., & Torvanger, A. (2001). Differentiation of mitigation commitments: the multi-sector convergence approach. Climate policy, 1, 481-497. Kuntsi-Reunanen, E., & Luukkanen, J. (2006). Greenhouse gas emission reductions inn the post-Kyoto period: emission intensity changes required under the contraction and convergence approach. Natural resource Forum, 30, 272-279. Malaman, R., & Pavan, M. (2002). Market-based policy approaches for end-use energy efficiency promotion. In Proceedings of the IEECB’02 Conference. Nice: ADEME. Markandya, A, & Longo, A. (2005). Identification of Options and Policy Instruments for the internalization of external costs of electricity generation. International energy markets. Markandya, A., Pedroso, S., & Štreimikienė, D. (2006). Energy Efficiency in Transition Economies. Energy Economics, 28, 121-145. Pan, J. (2003). Commitment to human development goals with low emissions. Peking: Research Center for Sustainable Development, the Chinese Academy of Science. Pearce, D., Atkinson ,G., & Murato, S. (2006) Cost-benefit Analysis and the Environment: recent developments. Paris: OECD Publ.


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Perrings, C. (1991). Ecological sustainability and environmental control. Struct. Change Econ. Dynam. 2, 275–295. Roy, B. (1996). Multi-criteria methodology for decision aiding. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Schulze, P. C. (1994). Cost-Benefit Analysis and Environmental Policy. Ecological Economics, 9, 197-199. Streimikiene, D., & Bubniene, R. (2004). The challenges of Kyoto commitments for Lithuanian energy sector. In ECEMEI. 3rd European congress Economics and management of energy in industry (pp. 49-59). Lisbon: CENERTEC. Streimikiene, D. Ciegis, R., & Grundey, D. (2007). Energy indicators for sustainable development in Baltic States. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11, 877-893. Streimikiene, D. (2000).Towards Sustainability: Integrating Environmental Policy with Energy Policy. Environmental Research, Engineering and Management, 2 (12), 43-50. Streimikiene, D. (2003). Policy measures to achieve sustainable energy development. Integration of market economy countries: problems and prospects. In Materials of scientific International Scientific Conference (pp. 198-204). Riga: Higher school of economics and culture. Streimikiene, D. (2004a). Implementation of EU environmental directives and Kyoto protocol requirements in Lithuanian power and district heating sectors. Power Engineering, 3, 30– 39. Streimikiene, D. (2004b). Integration of ISED in Sustainable Development Strategy for Lithuania. In Sustainable development indicators for the countries in transition. International Seminar Materials (pp. 24-32). Almaty: The Network of Experts for Sustainable Development of Central Asia. Streimikiene, D. (2005). Indicators for sustainable energy development in Lithuania. Natural Resources Forum, 29, 322-333. Stiglitz, J. A. (1974). Growth with exhaustible natural resources. Efficient and optimal growth paths. Rev. Econ. Studies, 41, 123–138. Virani S., & Graham S. (1998). Economic Evaluation of Environmental Policies and Legislation. Final Report prepared for the EC (DG III). Norfolk, UK: Risk and Policy Analysts Ltd. World Commission on Environment and Development. (WCED) (1987). Our Common Future. New York: UN. Winkler, H., Spalding-Fecher, R., Mwakasonda S., & Davidson, O. (2002). Sustainable Development Policies and Measures. Building on the Kyoto protocol. World Resource Institute. World Energy Council (WEC). (2007). Energy and climate change study. London: Washington: WEC.



Chapter 2

A RESOURCE DEPENDENCY PERSPECTIVE ON THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL SPATIAL DATA INFRASTRUCTURES (SDI’S) Walter T. De Vries* Dep. Urban-Regional Planning and Geoinformation Management (PGM) International Institute for Geoinformation science and Earth Observation (ITC)

ABSTRACT In the discussion of how decentralization of government authorities and increased autonomy of local governments, can foster sustainable development, the role of information provision and exchange between stakeholders is important. Sustainable information sources for local governments depend to a large extent on spatial information. Yet, the conceptualization of spatial information provision and exchange, as provided by the ontologies of Spatial Data Infrastuctures (SDIs) are still insufficiently linked to sustainable development. Current SDI literature is offering two dominant ontologies on how national and local SDIs develop over time, and how they relate to each other: one which is posing that the local SDIs are inter-related and inter-dependent building blocks, often in hierarchical relations, leading to or derived from national SDIs (hierarchical, umbrella view). The other view is that local SDIs are mostly rooted in local socio-technical networks, which are often splintered and fragmented, and which may not necessarily have hierarchical inter-dependency relations (fragmentation view). These different views have different implications on how to sustain local SDIs. In the logic of the hierarchical view, fostering local SDI development can only be done by mirroring after national SDI policies and components, while according to the fragmentation view the development would only rely on results of independent local developments. To review and reconcile this dichotomy for the purpose of better addressing the information requirements at local level, an alternative ontology is presented here, a resource-dependency-based ontology, derived from the resource dependency theory of *

[email protected]

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Walter T. De Vries (Pfeffer and Salancik, 1978). This theory conceives inter-dependency of organizations a direct result of exchange of resources of organizations with each other and with their environment. The approach does not make a difference in whether organizations are building blocks or social networks making up the SDI, but examines individual organizations, which assumingly contribute to making up the SDI, in relation to each other and their environment. The resulting resource-dependency-based ontology for SDIs provides a good explanation for inter-organizational behavior, and could thus be a good instrument to support local SDI development plans. The empirical casestudy on the basis of which this theory is validated concerns the local land information infrastructure of Bekasi in Indonesia.

Keywords: Resource dependency, spatial information infrastructures

1. INTRODUCTION The discussion of sustainable information sources is in particular prominent in the dilemmas and the transformation process which local governments are facing, including decentralization of authority over local resources. (Olowu, 2003) notes that: It is important to underscore the point that not all decentralization programs involve top-down policy making. Some decentralization has taken place by default - local actors have moved in to provide services which the central state could not provide - thereby forcing national governments to acknowledge the fait accompli by granting them the institutional and legal cover. It is also important to note that the conditions that sustain DD [democratic decentralization] are different from the ones that bring it about. Sustenance is conditional on a combination of contextual and design issues at the national and local levels.

Part of the transformation process towards more local autonomy is the issue of how the utilization of the information resources has been improved in the public organizations and for the public services. Answering this question needs further understanding of how information resources support local governance (Snellen and Donk, 1998). Furthermore, decentralization policies require an increased understanding of how governance can be improved at local level (Wisner et al., 2005; Worldbank, 2005), and how decentralization is actually implemented. This chapter investigates how local spatial data information resources are developing within local spatial data infrastructures (SDIs). I address the issue of sustainability by examining SDIs as a basis for information resources. In literature there are two different views on local SDIs. The first view puts local SDIs in a hierarchical dependency context. (Rajabifard et al., 2002; Williamson et al., 2003) based on earlier work of (Masser, 1998) and (Chan and Williamson, 1999) and using the hierarchal spatial reasoning of (Car, 1997) provide two main metaphors for the relation of national to sub-national and supra-national SDIs: the umbrella view and the building block view. In both views local SDIs are regarded as a framework of basic elements, which are connected and inter-dependent, due to the legal and institutional structures of each of these SDIs. Moreover, these SDI elements are connected through hierarchical dependency relations, in which decision makers working at any level can draw on data from other levels. Additional to these

A Resource Dependency Perspective

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vertical relationships, (Rajabifard et al., 2000) note that there are horizontal relationships within single administrative levels, although it is recognized that these horizontal relationships have been less well explored within the theory of hierarchical spatial reasoning. These horizontal relationships are the core of the argumentation in other views on relationships within SDIs. This argumentation starts from the evidence of changes that take place at local level. Although the dynamic nature of SDIs is recognized within the above view, this dynamic nature especially refers to the people’s needs in terms of data and services, and the development of technology with its associated access rights. It is however not explicitly including changes in local society (institutions) and in how local public administration acts and works. Yet, at the local level actors are affected by various developments: the increase of decentralization policies, increase of autonomy of public agencies, urbanisation and the fragmentation of the geographic functionality of cities. With regards to the latter, (Burgers, 2002) notes that cities and metropoles are no longer clear geographic entities, but are often the collection of high density fragments and clusters of “urban” processes. These urban processes are often imbedded in economic and technological processes, and relate to geographical social networks. (de Man, 2004) suggests that local spatial data infrastructures “are embedded within broader societal systems (or contexts) – be it at national or at local level – in which they facilitate communication and sharing of data and information almost as takenfor-granted between wide variety of actors. When GDIs [=SDIs] are embedded within social groups or within society at large then they must fit within existing cultures and institutions”.

This implies that local SDIs are thought of as being dependent on locally accepted social networks, rather than on nationally coordinated or nationally derived institutions. Local SDIs are in this perception intrinsically fragmented and “splintered”, and not necessarily hierarchically related or hierarchically steered and controlled. Sustainable development of this resource is thus only possible if local institutions –rather than national institutions - are supported. This is obviously a different view than that of the hierarchical approach. A number of efforts were made to reconcile the two approaches. (Harvey and Tulloch, 2006) amongst others note that the issue of power relationships [ in SDIs] calls for more attention. The ‘innocent activity of data sharing’ involves significant issues of ownership and control, ultimately involving questions of power. Promotion of technology in second-generation SDI to support data sharing at the local level should take local-government mandates, legislation, and political discretion into consideration, unless it also is constrained by limited local-government adoption. Policy development should also recognize that local governments share data to fulfill legislated and mandated responsibilities, not for the goal of improving data sharing

This chapter aims to find empirical evidence for either of these views on local SDIs. It will do so by taking a casestudy and using an alternative theoretical framework, namely that of resource dependency theory. The main case was the land information infrastructure of Bekasi, which is a part of the metropolitan area in and around Jakarta in Indonesia. The case is considered representative for many other urban information infrastructures around the world, which are heterogeneous and diverse in nature. As such, the casestudy aims at contributing to theory building of local SDIs.

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The discussion hereafter consists of 4 main parts. First I describe in section 2 the case of Bekasi. Section 3 includes an explanation and justification for the use of the resource dependency theory, followed by a description of the operationalization of this theory through a casestudy research approach in section 4. Section 5 provides an overview of the results obtained in Bekasi, differentiated in five main parts, each dealing with different operational variables : the degree to which information is homogeneous, the degree to which internal resources are available at each organization, the degree to which resources need to be exchanged and are mutually dependent, the degree to which hierarchical and fragmented exchange of resources takes place, and, the degree to which non-hierarchical and nonfragmented forces influence the generation and access to local information. Finally, the conclusions provide a review of the implications of this resource dependency-based ontology.

2. DESCRIPTION OF THE CASE – DECENTRALIZATION IN INDONESIA The quality of local public administration services is largely dependent on how information and information infrastructures are constructed (technically, socially and historically).To verify how local information infrastructures develop and what elements are fostering or hindering development a case area was chosen which was clearly affected by decentralization policies, but where at the same time nationally guided institutions were responsible for the formulation of information policies and strategies. The decentralization process in Indonesia appeared a representative case. National policies are aiming to decentralise, and to make local governments and their administrations more autonomous, leading to rapidly changing institutional space. This policy was started in 1999 (Republik Indonesia, 1999), but was adapted again in 2004 (Republik Indonesia, 2004). Worldbank reports and communication (such as http://www.worldbank.org/ eapdecentralizes.) notes that In the most comprehensive survey to date of the impact of decentralization on public service delivery in Indonesia, the new Governance and Decentralization Survey 2004, a partnership between Center for Population and Policy Studies - Gajah Mada University and the World Bank, shows that a large majority of Indonesians see improvements in public health, public education and local administrative services in the aftermath of decentralization. But most people believe the quality of police services has stayed the same or deteriorated.

On the boundary of central and decentral public administration organizations are cities close to Jakarta as the seat of the central government. Bekasi is such an example. It is part of the metropolitan area of Jakarta, which is a region that consists of a conglomeration of a number of cities, often referred to as Jabotabek (JAkarta, Bogor, TAngerang, BEKasi). Although the area of Bekasi is administratively in province West Java, it is physically directly adjacent to the special province area Jakarta without any visible boundaries. It had an increase of more than 1 million people in 10 years to reach some 3.2 million in 2000 (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2000). Bekasi can thus be considered an urban region that can no longer physically expand, but that it is experiencing rapid changes in land use within its boundaries, mostly from rural land to urban land use (Kitamura and Rustiadi, 1997), which is either residential or industrial. These changes coincide with a large unplanned and uncontrolled


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influx of residents and workers from both Jakarta and the rural areas of Java (Silas, 2002). Pressure on land is large, causing a rapid change in spatial relations between land, spatial objects and rights/claims on land and these objects. Such a situation would require rapidly updated spatial information for any local government to monitor change and intervene where necessary. In other words, an efficient spatial data infrastructure would seem crucial for any sort of information-based spatial planning, management and decision making in Bekasi. At the same time, however, the local public organizations of Bekasi are operating in a changing institutional environment. The municipality of Bekasi was split into two separate municipalities for the sake of better manageability, Bekasi city (Kota) and Bekasi region (Kabupaten). Spatial management regulations were changed several times in the past decade, partly in line with the above decentralization policies, but also partly in line with public sector reform policies aiming at more efficiency and cost reductions of the public sector. The result is that Bekasi as a region relies on heterogeneous and hybrid rationalities from both a socioeconomic and institutional point of view. As a consequence the efficacy and sustainability of decentralization policies seem to conflict with the common centrally regulated processes of public information collections and provision.

Figure 1. New residential housing developments.

3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK – RESOURCE DEPENDENCY THEORY The use of economic and organizational theories in the SDI literature is scarce. (Georgiadou and Blakemore, 2006) indicate in this context that: “The mainstream GIS journals continue a primarily technological theme, with some of them showing limited engagement in potential implications of software systems and enabling information technologies on the human, organisational and social world.”

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(Harvey, 2003) addresses some of the inter-organizational issues, and indicates that trust is important issue to consider. (Wehn de Montalvo, 2003) takes this as a starting point and notes that “Regarding the intention of key individuals within organizations to share spatial data, the results suggest that willingness cannot be taken for granted”. From both the last two publications one can conclude that the human perspective must be added to the organizational and the economic perspectives to understand how long-term, sustainable relations develop and how thus information resources may become more sustainable. One theory which could relate these different perspective is the resource dependency theory of (Pfeffer and Salancik, 1978). This resource dependency theory was incorporated for information management in publications of (Homburg, 1999) and (Brandsen, 2004), amongst others. The latter summarizes the basic beliefs of resource dependency theory ((Brandsen, 2004), p.31) as: a) Organizational action is shaped in interaction with the environment b) The interaction with the environment is conceived of in terms of resource exchange c) An organization’s need for particular resources forces it to maintain relationships of mutual dependence with other actors d) When relationships are asymmetric, one actor may exercise influence over the actions of another e) The relationship between an organization and its environment is not one-way. The organization’s actions are influenced by its relationships of dependence with the environment, but it may try to manipulate those relationships. f) Organizational goals and actions represent the interests of actors inside as well as outside the organization. They are not of neutral or technical nature. This notion of resource dependence is useful for an empirical analysis of local SDIs. Statement a) recognizes that the behavior of individual SDI related organizations can only be understood within their environment, while at the same time it recognizes that these organizations may pursuit goals which are multiple and could be contradictory. I decided therefore to use this resource dependency theory for the refining of the local SDI concept, in particular using the above statements b), c) and e) for the operationalization of this research, and using statements a) and d) for the analysis of the results. (Pfeffer and Salancik, 1978) conceive the inter-dependency of organizations a direct result of exchange of resources of organizations with each other and with their environment. This approach does not make a difference in whether organizations are building blocks or social networks making up the SDI, but examines individual organizations, which assumingly contribute to making up the SDI, in relation to each other and its environment. It is based on the degree of dependency that individual organizations have in relation to their environment. The dependency relations are either formal (institutional) relations or informal relations. In a way, this is similar to in transaction cost theory which looks at asset specifity in the sense that one looks for asymmetrical relations, but the focus in dependency relations is wider than the economic value of assets only. The resources on which organizations may be dependent from other organizations in the context of SDI are various. First of all, within SDIs information can be considered an important resource. (Kap et al., 2004) note that “shared use of geoinformation (between organizations or in a national or cross-border SDI) can take a number of forms, and all of


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these pose their own requirements and call for other solutions”. (Trung and Grant, 2005) note specifically for land information and related land information systems (LIS) that LIS are a specific resources which may however have different kinds of interfaces. (Moon, 2002) on the other hand acknowledges the importance of the information resource but stresses that incorporation of information technologies at municipal level still faces “lack of financial, technical, and personnel capacities”. (Lance et al., 2006) add on the financial resource that: For most SDI evaluations, the costs, at best, are estimated with a broad stroke, or are overlooked entirely, either because many SDI costs are sunk, indirect, or concealed in program budgets. (…) SDI costs span multiple agencies, each having different budgeting and accounting practices, resulting in a lack of budgetary interoperability. And, finally, for the people making up the human resources there is an interesting discussion by (Rieger et al., 2001) who note that: Many professionals, especially those aspiring to climb up somewhat on the career ladder, worry about reduced career opportunities for land administration staff under decentralization, as it may not only become difficult to rotate to a higher rank in another area, but there may also be increased competition for managerial positions from civil servants of other local government agencies. Such a development could also worsen the quality problem in the field of human resources by blocking the road to exchange of experience and personal development for professionals and managerial staff.

The discussion of resources needs therefore a decision on which resources to look at. I decided to restrict this research to three main resources: information as a resource, human resources and financial resources. An important remark is necessary here. ICT (the technology) in general is also a resource, but with the use and spreading of internet and lowcost software and hardware, it is often no longer considered specific to a particular organization (see also discussions of (Rasheed and Geiger, 2000) on this issue). In this research the resources are: the information that is derived using this technology, the human capacity to use the technology, and the financial means to benefit from the technology are the main resources needed to evaluate inter-organizational resource dependencies.

Figure 2. Resource dependency relations.

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To examine individual organizations I constructed the following triangle of the availability of resources within an organization and of their resources dependency (Figure 2). In this figure I added a number of dimensions to be able to distinct between the degree of dependency relations:

Figure 3. Degree of resources dependency of an organization.

As mentioned, the main resources under consideration within an SDI are considered the human resources, the finances and the information. Some organizations may be richer in such resources, and some may have lower capabilities and capacities. This is explained by the 3 separate axes. This notion of high and low is not necessarily quantitative, but can be considered a perceived value, qualitative. For this reason the description of an organization is not necessarily the combination of 3 values along independent, orthogonal axes, but more a relative importance of an internal resource as a compared to another -often external resource. The location of any organization within the triangle would than explain what sort of behavior – in terms of seeking relations – an organization would theoretically pursue. An organization may for example have a high degree of postgraduate staff, but if such formal knowledge is not properly employed, it is likely that most employees will perceive the human resource in comparison to other organizations as low. This has an effect on interorganizational relations. The more abundant a resource is perceived to be within an organization, the more such an organization will exploit this resource and internalize it for their relations with the environment. If human resources are for example perceived to be high within an organization, an organization would benefit for example from internal rotation of


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these human resources within the organization, which may result in the perception of other organizations in the environment that they cannot rely on personal – informal - relations at a certain level of the humanly skilled organization. In such a case, the theory would expect that the environment would invest in long term, formal relations, if such an environment is dependent on the knowledge from that particular organization. Alternatively, if an organization is lacking one resource, one would expect that it would seek relations that exchange their own abundance in exchange for this lack. In both cases, a structure of dependency relations emerges, which could explain current or intended behavior of organizations, and ultimately existing or lacking SDI structures.

4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 4.1. Organizations Researched A total of 42 formal interviews were held in a period of 7 weeks. In addition, on a daily basis informal conversations were held during those 7 weeks and documentation was collected from the National Library and the World Bank documentation centre in Jakarta, daily newspapers - notably Kompas - , local newspapers, websites of local institutions - as far as they had these -, bookshops and information stands - mostly land and housing developers at shopping malls. Various observations were made and collected through digital photographs, short video and audio recordings. The type of organizations and sectors were interviewed are displayed in Table 1.

4.2. Formulation of Pre-understanding and Propositions Literature on casestudy research (Yin, 1997; Yin, 2003) indicates that pre-understanding can be made tangible through formulation of propositions. These propositions determine the boundaries of the research and the dimensions which will be investigated (see (Yin, 2003). The use of propositions seems somewhat contradictory to the objectives of qualitative research, in particular to that of grounded theory, which should essentially derive new concepts and ideas regardless of existing theoretical frameworks. On the other hand, a selected number of publications already provided some first insight into the dependency relations of local governments with information collections, and it seemed useful - despite the fact that I wanted to get an as broad insight as possible into current problems, practices and perceptions - to limit this research in the given time. Statement c) of (Brandsen, 2004) predicts that an organization’s need for particular resources forces it to maintain relationships of mutual dependence with other actors. Some of the SDI related literature is already pointed to this direction (Harvey, 2003). Yet, the factor of mutual dependency as a motivator for SDI development has not yet been established. This has led to the formulation of 3 propositions:

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Other / NGO

Private sector

Government / Public sector agencies

Table 1. Organizations and sectors interviewed Type of organization Bappeda - Urban / regional planning office BPN – land office BPN – section land survey and measuring BPN – section land use BPN – section land information (former local land agency – Dinas Pertanahan) PBB – land and building tax Land survey offices Kecamatans – district (sub-municipality) government BPS – statistical office PU – public works Land use and building permit offices Public sector information agencies (PSIs) Notaries, land transaction officers, law firms Land developers Property brokers / agents Land, IT and public management Consultants and academics National (professional) Associations Academic institutions Libraries

Various sources of evidence were used as displayed in Table 2. Table 2. Sources of evidence were used (following (Yin, 2003) 1) Documentation

2) Archival records:

agendas, meetings - e.g. logbook of correspondence at Bappeda administrative documents - progress reports of BPN; documents for national associations (local government, notaries) formal studies - study from COMO consultants newspaper clippings - from Kompas, from local newspaper (fall of Bupati) service records - no. of clients organizational records - organizational charts of all organizations; work flow charts BPN maps lists - staff names, survey data - census data - from BPS personal records - not used - records from association of local governments


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Table 2. Continued 3) Interviews

4) Direct observations 5) Participantobservation:

6) Physical artifacts

The responses to questions were interpreted in the context in which they are given, and in the context of by whom they were given. It is clear that when a technical staff responds, he or she will be very careful answering possibly sensitive questions on corruption, or long-term strategies of the office. Also higher echelon staff may be very careful to give out information which may possibly affect placement to a next position, or replacement to another office. This is "taken care of" by asking additional questions on the private status of each of the respondents/ interviewees. where are they coming from, are they happy with current developments, where do they we want to be in a few years, where is their family staying, where did they work before, do they feel more technical or managerial staff, etc.. With such a context, one can also better place the answers which they are given. A context by also be the current drafting of new policies and regulations (like BPN - new structure 2006 - people are hesitant to respond to future organizational structures), recent events which took place (note the complaints of the people on the recruitment of new public sector staff on the website; note also the toppling of the Bupati of Bekasi Kabupaten - a former head to BPN) Photo's of organizations, offices, banners and particular road signs stand of real estate brokers at every mall, Being a resident in the neighborhood provided daily interaction with local residents- example: strong feeling / influence of pribumi cikarang people towards newcomers or any private building activity; type of people in malls; experienced the reactions on the toppling of the bupati and the reactions in general to government officials; experienced the transportation problems; experienced the problems when it rains; experienced the distance to Jakarta and central offices; experienced the difference between the town of Bekasi and the region of Bekasi etc.) taking some functional role in a neighborhood Photo's of the area;

Proposition 1: Information resources may be sustainable when they part of a practice of mutual dependences. For the case of the land information infrastructure these mutual dependence relationships may be both vertical and horizontal, and may be within the (land) sector or outside the sector. urthermore, statement d) of (Brandsen, 2004) implies that organizations may create a new environment of relationships by manipulating their dependency relationships with their environment. This would explain to what (Pendit, 2003) for the Indonesian context notes : “IT-based public information services in Indonesia is characterized as spurious and uncoordinated, resisting innovation, more concerned with automating the work process, without direct relationships between government and the equipment industry, impaired by tension as changes in some practices are resisted, and by uncoordinated efforts to resolve the problem.”. As a result, new mutual dependencies may determine behavior, but

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Walter T. De Vries several practices and legacies may exist next to each other. This leads to my second proposition: Proposition 2: The current land-information based SDI is not yet sustainable, because the information asymmetry is leading to frequent changes in resources. nally, it these propositions are validated, there seems a clear conclusion to the question of the most appropriate concept to explain local SDI structures: Proposition 3: It would be better to use an information resource based ontology to describe and monitor the development of SDIs, in which both hierarchy and fragmentation elements exist to explain the development of local SDIs, but in which additional elements and policy effects may also be predicted and explained. e operationalisation of these 3 propositions was done through evaluating the resource dependencies and the various degree to which these are developed and related to each other. Schematically (Figure 4):

Figure 4. Operationalisation of Research strategy.


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Table 3. Principles of validity checks and tactics (Yin, 2003) Tests Construct validity

Internal validity

External validity Reliability

Case study tactic Use multiple sources of evidence Establish chain of evidence Have key informants review draft of case study Do pattern-matching by comparing responses. Do explanation-building Address rival explanations Use theory and generate theoretical frameworks in single-case studies Use case study protocols in collecting data Develop a case study database

The results were checked on validity and reliability given the principles of (Yin, 2003) , as given in Table 3. The interpretation was done by comparing the empirical findings with the original propositions. If there was any indication that a possible rival explanation (compared to the original proposition) for the empirical findings was necessary, the findings were compared again to both the original and the rival propositions. The interpretation provided a hermeneutic result.

5. DATA ANALYSIS The results are discussed based on Figure 4.

5.1. Degree to which Information was Homogeneous It was found that the concept of land and spatial information was interpreted differently by each of the respondents. In open discussions people were asked what land information they were working with. While the unit of study was confined to “land information” as a fairly homogeneous concept, the term itself appeared multi-interpretable by the local respondents. Some associated land information only with the static spatial component of land ownership or land value information, sometimes called parcel information. Land information is than simply a parcel identifier, or better a single number. Even though a single number would than be most appropriate, in Bekasi the land registration (BPN) and the land taxation (PBB) office were each using their own parcel identifier, while often referring to the same area, and using each others spatial data. Private or semi-private companies such as electricity and Telcom providers did not base their registration on either of these and each had their own system of land information, often based on addresses, rather than parcel identifiers. Most spatial monitoring and spatial plan making actors on the other hand referred to land use planning information in a dynamic way, described for example by one of the land and real estate developers as how to transfer “green” to “yellow”. Apparently, the only relevant information was its outcome after a change, namely how to change land use from rural to residential areas which would result in opportunities to invest.

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When asked with which other organization one would like to seek relations for the (exchange of) information resources, this differed per respondent, but the most common responses were: • • •

with PBB – if one look for the most complete coverage of spatial data. PBB is perceived to have information for every parcel. with BPN – if one looks for the most accurate spatial data. BPN is known for standard surveying procedures with high accuracy. with Bappeda – if one needs aggregated spatial data, i.e. a combination of different datasets leading to a reliable new dataset for a particular purpose.

This heterogeneity of maps and information systems can easily be seen from a number of pictures (Figure 5, 6,7): Finally, the last picture shows the land use and building permit office (Dinas Tata Ruang dan Pemukiman) in Kota Bekasi. It was viewed that many paper maps available, but few people integrate the various source of maps or actively apply GIS to integrate.

Figure 5. Storage of paper maps at BPN Kab. Bekasi.

Figure 6. Physical planning in Kab. Bekasi versus physical plan at Kecamatan level (in front of the Kecamatan’s office).


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Figure 7. Internally displayed maps at Bappeda office.

In general, one can conclude that land information is available at various scales, in various forms, and based on different identifiers. This makes land information, or information in general, by definition a heterogeneous concept within the organizations.

5.2. Degree to which Internal Resource are Available at Each Organization 5.2.1. Information Resources As a result of the heterogeneity of the information as described above, both public and private public organizations and citizens need to acquire separate pieces of their own puzzle of separate public counters. The following figures 8 and 9 describe such circumstances:

Figure 8. Digital public information service at PBB – Kab. Bekasi. / public counter of land and housing tax office – PBB – Kab. Bekasi.

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Figure 9. Front desk / public counter of BPN offices in Kab. Bekasi and Kota Bekasi.

Exchange of information was perhaps not considered an issue by any of the organizations. Many of the information and information products were in practice considered singular sector information, disregarding the multisectoral nature of citizens and private companies. Yet, most of the respondents of the visited organizations view information as a valuable resource, for which they need to engage with other organizations to make their internal resource more valuable. From a resource perspective one could say that information remains sector-based and is not interoperable, and local organizations are often not in a position to make it interoperable at local level. Organizations such as BPN and PBB have made their information a valuable resource, which is required by other organizations. The implication of this is that while many organizations depend on the land information from PBB and BPN, this value has become too high a price to find internal equivalents for the exchange. The external environment of PBB and BPN therefore equally looks for alternatives, in the form of aggregate data of Bappeda, or data supplied / offered by the private sector.

5.2.2. Financial Resources The extent and the kind of financial problems related to information exchange of local government organizations could be derived from both interviews and in literature such as (Rieger et al., 2001). During the discussions with respondents the emphasis was often not placed on the exact figures of the budget, but more on the degree of authority on the budgets and the dependency relations. The following Table 4 summarizes the findings at the local offices with regards to financial resources:


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Table 4. A summary of the empirical findings on financial resources Issue

Empirical findings

Implications for finance as a resource

Origin of financial resources

Despite the fact that the policy of local autonomy has made local funds available, in most cases the budgets related to land information are determined at national level. The degree of authority on the budget is clearly reflected in a difference of perception that national level offices have as compared to local level offices. Staff does not seem to know or to perceive how much funds are used for which activity. Most organizations indicated not having enough budgets to buy data or resources, not having structural budget provisions to access information from external agencies, and having limited or varying financial possibilities to subcontract. While local authorities have larger financial allocation powers than before, there remains a feeling of insecurity and dependence being on new policies and budget decisions by higher or external authorities (such as local governments)

In practice, the budget authority does not seem to exclude financial dependence.

Capability of generating own resource

Changes emerging in financial regime

Dependency relations as bottlenecks or opportunities

Various dependencies were explicitly mentioned: on results of subcontracts; many data acquisition projects are subcontracted to a limited pool of geoinformation companies (“they are all from Bandung” was a commonly used phrase by different persons). on local politics for local project funds on ownership of data by other agencies, this not having the freedom to use the data on initiatives by local developers and foreign investors. In particular in Bekasi region most of the economic activities are determined by either one of these categories.

Limited space to use financial resources automatically creates dependencies. The new autonomy of local government is still creating many unknowns for financial possibilities of the environment. The effect is that the financial resource is not allocated optimally. Local politics play a major role in defining financial resource dependencies. The influence of the private sector in public affairs implies that much of the information bypasses governmental agencies at local level.

5.2.3. Human Resources Producing and Providing Information New public management theories have been dealing with reorganizing public agencies for efficiency and effectiveness reasons, which is having a tremendous impact for those who have to work within those new contours. Under decentralization policies, management practices related to human resources have been focused on devolution of management responsibilities (Boston, 2000) and enhanced flexibility of personnel (Tolofari, 2005), for example. Before the fieldwork, indications were that neither really happened in Indonesia (Bennington and Habir, 2003). In addition, the problem of rotation of staff of public agencies in Indonesia has been reported by (Rohdewohld, 2004). During the fieldwork I found that all government agencies reported that rotation is staff is taking place quite regularly, i.e. every 2 to 3 years, especially for staff in management positions. At local offices a couple of difficulties were reported:

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Walter T. De Vries • •

•

Staff living in one area and working in another. A main problem of this could be a lower affinity with the area of work, and lower incentives to invest in local contacts. The technical staff moving around from office to office. In particular for the geo-ict staff or those dependent of this technology, this is difficult, because very few people can take over. The facilities and staff capacities in the new workplace may be very different from the previous one. This was especially reported by staff who had been shifted from Bekasi city to Bekasi region. Where the city had a lot of support from national agencies – many staff was shifted from a national agency to this city – they also had access to the technically skilled or political (financial) influential people at higher levels. In Bekasi region – which was newly proclaimed some ten years ago – the facilities were not yet optimal, and the staff was not always attached to this.

In general, the non-government customers did not find the government rotation a problem for their own businesses. The argumentation during interviews was often that the offices and local practices stayed the same and their own businesses were not hindered by the government rotation. Although this argument is not directly related to information exchange as such, it indicates that most private organizations, including offices such as local notaries, work very independently from local government. Both notaries and developers only work in and for a particular city & region, and especially the developers invest in their own data collection for that region. Data exchange between local private sector and local government is not happening, and it is not unlikely that the frequent changes in government staff may be a reason for that. One of the indications to support the idea that informal networks of human resources would play a different role in local SDIs as compared to national SDIs concerns the example of the construction of a provincial NSDI. The provincial SDI resulted in almost no transvertical information exchange. Although at provincial level guidelines had been developed how to develop information exchange (personal communication), none of the staff who were interviewed at local level was aware that the initiative existed. Transvertical human resource exchange could perhaps solve this problem partly, however, the role and the financing of the provinces may prevent this possibility. With the autonomy laws (Republik Indonesia, 1999; Republik Indonesia, 2004) the new role that the provinces could play has remained unclear up till now. An immediate reaction was however that many interviewed staff indicated to opt for working for the provincial offices, as there their salaries and appointments could be guaranteed through government budgets. A possible role of provincial offices could be to coordinate human resource development and short term upgrading of staff. Many staff at local level indicated however that any possibilities for short term training had decreased since the government reform. As long as this role of provinces remains unclear it is not likely that transvertical, or even vertical, information exchange is accelerated. An indication that strong vertical rotation structures were not conducive to internalization of the human resources was the fact that the local BPN office of Bekasi city had collected all kinds of geo-information in digital format of areas which were physically outside their territory (for example, because the satellite images were beyond their physical territory, but the landscape obviously continues), but it was however not possible to provide this information to the adjacent Bekasi region agencies, because of procedural reasons.


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A summary of the findings and the implications as shown in Table 5: Table 5. Summary of empirical findings on human resources Issue Stability of human resources

Rotation of staff

Upgrading of staff as a means to internalize the human resources Subcontracting and externalization of human resources

Empirical findings Especially within BPN and PBB the human resource capacity is internalized over the whole organization. Many staff is replaced / rotated from top to down and vice versa. During the fieldwork there was an online recruitment process of public sector staff in Bekasi City. Many citizens complained about the process, and were not convinced that it was conducted properly. There is regular rotation of staff among offices, especially at BPN and at local government offices. While at the former this is mainly vertical, at the latter it is horizontal from office to office at the local level there. Surprisingly this does not seem to foster informal networks of people. The private sector did not seem to find rotation of public sector staff a problem for their daily work processes and their long term relations.. It was mentioned various public officers – both in vertically structured as well as in local organizations – that opportunities for upgrading of staff at local level used to be easier before decentralization. There does not seem to be long-term investments in local staff any more, and if opportunities at national of provincial level emerge, than local level staff is often less involved than before. Subcontracting of technical work takes place especially in organizations which have received increasing funds after decentralization policies, and which were previously largely information dependent.

The implications of these findings for the issue of human resources can be summarized as follows: •

•

•

•

For career opportunities most local public staff has a tendency to prefer to work for national or provincial offices. This severely weakens the possibilities to rely on human resources for long-term relations at local level. Private organizations invest in relations with local public organizations, but not necessarily in individuals. The human resource within the local public sector is thus not considered a valuable resource to base relations on. As evidenced by the subcontracting behavior at local level the dependency on human resource capacity is most apparent in newly established public organizations after the autonomy laws. While the internal experience is shared within the larger - vertically structured – organizations such as BPN and PBB, meaning that the human resources are internalized, there was no evidence that this has lead to any increase of information

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Walter T. De Vries exchange between local offices of these organizations, or in other words, to an improvement of a local SDIs, or emerging SDI building blocks.

5.3. Degree to which Resources Need to be Exchanged and Are Mutually Dependent As far as the information resources are concerned mutual dependency seems evident. The importance of the information is immediately attached to the various organizations, and the actions of individuals and organizations do not seem to force those organizations to speak with one voice. The results of this is that the information resource has been internalized at organizations such BPN and PBB. For most other organizations it is clearly externalized (notaries, land use planning offices for example). Table 6. results of type of resource dependencies per organization Type of organization

Bappeda - Urban / regional planning offices BPN – land office PBB – land and building tax Land survey offices Kecamatans – district (submunicipality) government BPS – statistical office PU – public works Land use and building permit offices Public sector information agencies Notaries, land transaction officers, law firms Land developers Property brokers / agents Land, IT and public management Consultants and academics Academic institutions National (professional) Associations Libraries

Type of resource dependencies Information Financial Human resource resource high low low low high high high

high low high high

low low low high

low high high

high high high

high low low

low High

high low

high low

Low low high

low high high

high High Low

high high

high high

Low Low

low

high

high

Part of the problem with this internalization of the information resource is however that there is no clear idea of the different customers of land information. There is generally no need perceived at local level for customization, or functional adaptation. Interoperability objectives are leading to an objective in itself and often to data collections which are not


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completely functional. As a result, formalized information resource dependencies have been created for a specific external environment (land ownership and tax). In addition, local – more horizontal - dependencies are established with the private sector. For the other resources – financial resources and human resources – it is such that decentralization policies have somewhat changed the authorities and allocations. Sector based organizations such as BPN have become largely dependent on national allocations of both people and funds, while local organizations such as Bappeda have gotten more access to local funds and people. The dependencies are this heterogeneous. It is recognized that there some differences between the Bekasi region and the Bekasi City. In general, though, based on the above, the resource dependencies per type of organization at local level could be summarized in the following Figure 9 and Table 6. In figure form this would become the following Figure 10:

Figure 10. Organizations and resources in Bekasi.

Remarkable about this picture is that there are no organizations within the field of local land information, which seem to be relying on all resources externally (lower right corner). This confirms the idea that there are mutual dependencies, and that resources are exchanged.

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5.4. Degree to which Hierarchical and Fragmented Exchange of Resources Takes Place The inter-organizational dependency relations were classified as in the following Table 7. Table 7. Relation of spatial and organizational dimensions Organizational dimension Spatial dimension in one administrative region (kabupaten) in more than one administrative region (between kabupatens) between vertical administrative entities (pusatprovince-kabupaten kecamatan - desa)

in one organization (e.g. national land office) hierarchical

one sector (e.g. land, real estate, planning)

between sectors

fragmented

fragmented

hierarchical

fragmented

fragmented

hierarchical

hierarchical

Hierarchical & fragmented

Using these qualifications, I looked at institutional (formal) relations, informal relations, and the influence of the local environment. The regulations which seem to have had the most impact on both the institutional change and the internal reform of the organizations are the different regulations that dealt with a new organization for land administration and land registration. The Guidelines for the organizational structure of regional /local government institutions (Republik Indonesia, 2000) initiated new local land administration organizations in the form of “Dinas’s ”, which is the organizational form for sector-based institutions directly under the responsibility of provincial or local governments. As a result, in Bekasi a Dinas Pertanahan (Land Service) instead of a local office of Badan Pertanahan (BPN, the National Land Agency) was established, operating directly under the authority of the local government. Yet, in 2004 these Dinas’s (one for each of the two Bekasi’s) were abolished again, and -awaiting a new institutional structure- activities of these offices were distributed over the former BPN and the local planning offices. (Rieger et al., 2001) note that: “while public demand presses for increased legal security of land rights and transparent, timely, affordable and reliable land administration services (by local land offices / local governments), the current system’s ability to meet that demand in quantity and quality is quite limited”. (Antima, 2003) also indicates that local land information collections to support local governments must be made in line with central prescriptions, despite the fact that the relation between a central land agency and local land agency is not clear. It seems therefore that a large part of the problem why local governments cannot effectively rely on local (spatial) data collections is the fact that the local spatial data infrastructures resulting from these centrally guided policies and regulations can not be developed and enhanced by uniform copying of national spatial data infrastructure designs. These issues were verified during the fieldwork.


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The interviews provided a first simplified glance (Figure 11) on how the organizations dealing with land information are currently organizing their land information towards the local level (the lines indicating the information flows – thick lot of information exchange – thin or dashed line – little information exchange):

Figure 11. Main land information flows.

Most organizations are structured to carry out single-sectoral work flows. Work processes of spatial data acquisition and distribution are often defined vertically in vertical organizations, and are defined ad hoc or on project basis in horizontal organizations.

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It became evident during the interviews with local public sector staff that most public information production processes are determined at national level, and simply implemented at local level according to the guidelines provided by the national level agencies. The most prominent of such guidelines were the SPOPP 2005 guidelines of the national land office (BPN, 2005), and the land use planning guidelines of the national BAPPENAS office. The impact for such hierarchical work relations is that there is little attention for the coordination of work processes (such as joined spatial data acquisition) at local level. It would seem beneficial to local organizations for example that once a parcel is measured by a local BPN office, that such parcel information is directly used and stored at the local PBB office as well. While this was acknowledged during interviews, local staff did not want to take large initiatives to cross organizational boundaries. This was also apparent in the use and interpretation of an Ikonos1 image of the area, which was available at all local offices. Rather than setting up information exchange channels, all individual organizations preferred to use the image in their own way, even if this meant that it appeared that the spatial projection of the Ikonos image was different than their own maps, or maps obtained from the national offices of Bakosurtanal. In other words, problems with the locally available data were not shared or discussed across organizational boundaries. Furthermore, most interviewees responded that the new autonomy laws have created a feeling among most organizations that the institutional changes and changes in organizations are not yet over. As a result, most organizations are still relying strongly vertical orders and relying on vertical links, or are largely focusing their attention on new policies by the new local government. As a result, there exists a feeling of having to choose between the two options, and because of this most respondents indicated having limited insight in the cooperation possibilities with other local organizations. The local BPN offices for example indicated that after all the turbulent changes of the past 4 years, they preferred to wait for a new central directive on BPN, which was scheduled to be established in 2006. The local land use planning offices (Dinas Tata Ruang) gave a similar answer but than referring to new directives from the local government. The effect of such hesitation to act is that newly established offices , such as the Dinas Tata Ruang, was hardly known (in terms of available information) outside the local government structure PEMDA, and was certainly not yet included as a potential partners for exchange of any resources. This is also the most recorded complaint at most organizations. The information is not complete; the scale is not appropriate, etc. This is partly because the information products have been defined at levels where there is no direct relation with customers / citizens (such as province or central level). The local autonomy has however given incentives to start developing products at local level which address these complaints more directly. BPN is thinking of developing overview maps of aggregated parcel information. PBB has developed screens with aggregated information. Still, however, there is little or no sporadic or systematic trans-horizontal information distribution, and as a whole none of the local agencies seem to have implemented an approach to more diversified customers and citizens. Customers are defined as unisectoral, non-holistic customers with non-complex information needs, instead of multi-sectoral and trans-sectoral citizens with diversified information needs. The perception of a uniform customer can also be derived from the reports on the lack of use of spatial information such as in (NES, 2006). The question why nationally produced 1

Ikonos and Quickbird are high resolution satellite-based images.


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information was not used was answered by stating that local communities did not understand the information products. However, the fact that local communities may be different and may have specific information needs was not addressed. On the question why such a situation exists, the majority of public staff at local level responded that they were following instructions and business processes predominantly set-up in a vertical way. Loyalty lies primarily within the organization itself, and incentives to cooperate at local –despite increasing local autonomy - has less priority. Most were aware that this is resulting in heterogeneity of technical descriptions of spatial information at local level, and all also confirmed that while the need for horizontal and fragmented information exchange seemed obvious. Yet, the following reasons were given why this didn’t take place: • • •

fear for repercussions – not following vertical instructions, bureaucratic procedures to contact other agencies; has to go upwards first and than downwards, question of authority is not always clear.

The explanation of this within the resource context is thus that the asymmetry of resources in a vertical way is bigger than the asymmetry in a horizontal way. However, having noticed that most public organizations are exchanging information in a vertical way, prescribed by vertical institutional arrangements, the most prominent exception concerns the local planning office, where some transhorizontal information exchange took place. Part of the reason was that these offices had acquired high-accuracy satellite images: Ikonos (in Bekasi city) and Quickbird (in Bekasi ), These images were considered beneficial for each office, if applied as a base map behind their other geo-data. Most offices obtained these images informally, through private exchanges. On the other hand, most private agencies were almost all exclusively working at horizontal level and dealing with transhorizontal information exchange. It was also noticed that transvertical information exchange hardly ever occurred. This is especially surprising because the national mapping coordination office and national disaster mitigation offices could play a role here. (NES, 2006) notes that while much of the spatial information is produced and is available at national level, local governments and civil society at local level are not capable of using it, or are not involved in the creation of it. Also, most local agencies indicated never to use or obtain data from the National Mapping Agency (Bakosurtanal) because of the reasons: • •

there is no internet available (yet) to download the data, no funds are structurally prepared to obtain the data.

The initial assumption of ICT being a similar resource for all organizations apparently does not seem to apply here, although this may only be a matter of time. More importantly, the dependency of local offices on external financial resources may be a longer term barrier to more cooperation. This is disadvantageous to both sides of such cooperation, but perhaps it could also be explained by a lack of strategic behavior from national organizations. National agencies are perceived at local level to work and to communicate in a single sector, providing data at too high a cost, and to be too far away from the local agencies. This structurally

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prevents local offices to invest in transsectoral and transvertical relations, because the return would simply be too low.Additionally, a difficult role is that of the intermediary administrative levels of provinces and kecamatans. One would expect that having a coordinating role these levels would lead in transhorizontal and transvertical relations, especially for information resources. However, the only example of such information exchange efforts was found at the province of West Java – directly responsible for Bekasi – where a plan for a provincial SDI was formulated. Still, none of the respondents at local level knew about this, neither were they involved in any of the operational details of this plan or policy. This proved that the coordination did not effectively take place. Essentially, the information at sub-local level (kecamatan, desa’s, RW/RT) is often very limited, as shown by Figure 12:

Figure 12. The only land use plan map in the Kecamatan Serang.

In other words, the institutional structures related to the information resource are mainly directed to vertical organizational structures and not so much on the functionality of the information or the users or beneficiaries of that information. The newspaper article by (YNT/BAY/D09/NAW, 2006) reports in this context that the administrative hierarchy within the metropolitan area of Jabotabek is preventing cooperation between provinces and local governments to conduct spatial planning. Solutions to planning problems are generated at each public administrative level, without any transvertical and transhorizontal exchange or any trans-horizontal sharing of problems with spatial information. From the point of view of structural information collection and management, there is clearly a clash between the provincial governments of DKI Jakarta and West Jawa, at the expense of the local governments of East Jakarta, Bekasi City and Bekasi region. A number of additional problems which would require an inter-organizational approach are also reported:

A Resource Dependency Perspective •

•

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waste problem – see also article(PIN, 2006) ; much of the waste of the Jakarta province being “dumped” in the Bekasi area. During the discussions in Bekasi it was also noted that many of the spatial information related to this remains in Jakarta province and is not brought forward to a Metropolitan forum consisting of various governments, transportation problem – see also articles (PIN/NAW, 2006; YNT/BAY/D09/NAW, 2006). It is obvious that the transportation to and from Jakarta needs to be related to the surrounding territories, while the spatial information needed for this planning crosses the territorial boundaries. Still, however, the cases described in newspapers show that the information lies at the separate public administration offices and that very little information is exchanged or integrated for a functional purpose.

One way out suggested by one of the respondents would be to create a functional body which could operate largely independently from “territorial” government agencies, and which could deal with spatial information for the whole metropolitan area. Such a body would not have institutional links to either province or local municipalities, and as such no asymmetric dependency relations. There are some examples of such more functional institutional structures in Indonesia, and some are already exist in the area of Bekasi: The Badan Infokom in Bekasi city for example. Although mainly set-up to provide information to the public on government procedures and general information, it has the mandate to operate between the various agencies of the local government. As a direct consequence, it has the authority to request for information produced by each agency, and it may publish all information in aggregated form. In other words, it would only be a small step to include spatial information, if only the spatial information providers were institutionally linked to the local government. From a resource perspective, the Badan InfoKom has set up mutual dependency relations with all public agencies: funding in exchange for information. Similarly, the land agency Dinas Pertanahan – only in existence for some two years - was based on this. In Bekasi city it assembled all spatial data and produced an atlas of the whole region containing many layers of information. The Dinas Pertanahan ceased however to exist, and the potential for transhorizontal information exchange therefore as well. A particular institutional set-up for information resource exchange found was that of a laboratory. The Agency of Survey and mapping of the Jakarta special provincial area used to be such a laboratory. As a laboratory it had the possibility to focus on spatial data collection and provision without any structural links to the local government agencies. Such a unit would have the advantage that it could operate independently, outside the "bureaucracy", yet with a functional focus on spatial information with a singular functional task needed in local governance. This would be similar to what was described by (Korsten et al., 2002) for the Netherlands municipalities, for example. A technical unit or laboratory, acting as an agent of various local governments, financed by both local governments and private consulting activities, and dealing purely with information services for public purposes. Finally, an alternative could be privatization of the public information providing agencies. Technically, this could be possible in Indonesia via the so-called BUMN – Badan Usaha Milik Negara – State owned enterprises. For Indonesia these have been recently researched by (Irwanto, 2006a; Irwanto, 2006b) from a financial performance perspective, although none of the researched agencies was dealing specifically with spatial information collections or provision. Furthermore, during the interviews few government staff appeared

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very supportive of possible privatization plans. The main reason was that the final information and effects of the information have a public character. These findings can be summarized by Table 8: Table 8. Findings related to institutional arrangements Issue Institutional structures

Formal - informal Interorganizational exchange Alternative institutional structures

Empirical findings In the creation of local autonomous structures most of the attention is paid to the structures itself rather than on the functionality of the structures. Mirroring local SDI’s to national institutions will not be conducive. Objectives of national SDI’s can be used, but with slight adaptations While formalized exchange mechanisms are apparent in organizations, the inter-organizational exchange happens mostly through informal local networks. Alternative public-private institutional structures - such as the laboratory structure - seem to be conducive to information exchange. Some publicprivate partnerships exist, and there are a number of public enterprises. As a result, the local SDIs seems to rely on a heterogeneous set of nonterritorial public-private relationships.

The findings need to be placed in the context in which they were found. Being a temporary resident in the area provided daily interaction with local residents, and a feeling of how the institutions were perceived. Issues that clearly influenced the perception of the institutions included: •

•

The Head of the local government in Bekasi was forced to resign during the fieldwork period. The issue even got national media attention, and was also widely reported in local media (Peta, 2006). Institutionally, it was the first Bupati who was ever elected, so one would expect a lot of support from the public. At the same time, frequently it was mentioned that the previous position of the Bupati had been with the national land agency, and that the reputation of this agency was not good in terms of transparency. The perception was thus that there might a relation between these two issues. From a resource perspective, and especially looking at the interface between the public administration and the public, one could derive that the major information providers are not sufficiently perceived as transparent. In general, there were a lot of adverts and campaigns for new real estate residential areas, mostly in shopping malls and other commercial areas where the citizens would regularly go. Such consistent advertising campaigns induce a strong idea among residents that most of the land and real estate, and the associated information is actually influenced by real estate developers. This is a strong argument against the feasibility that formalization of institutional structures will solve the interchange problem.


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5.5. Degree to which non-hierarchical and Non-fragmented Forces Influence the Generation of Access to Land Information 5.5.1. Degree to which Relations are Rooted in Local Economical and Non Formal Networks Given the high amount of changes and development in the satellite cities of the Jabotabek metropole, one can expect many economic forces influence the organizations dealing with managing and maintaining the space and its associated information. Among the most apparent influences in the field of land use and land information in the area of Bekasi are: •

•

The creation of many residential areas in the form of compounds and small towns by large land developer companies, often with direct relations to banks and insurance companies, The creation of large industrial complexes, mostly from foreign companies.

The figures 13 and 14 just provide a glance of the artifacts which prove the rapid developments. Large companies are buying up land and rapidly developing it towards residential and industrial use. Both of these developments seem to be largely driven by financially strong organizations, outside the public sector. Yet, since there are both public and (the change of) private land at stake here, the public sector is involved in the process, and (resource) dependency relations – formal and informal – are created along with time.

Figure 13. Caption: “Land owned by Lippo real estate company”.

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Figure 14. Signs pointing to industrial areas in Bekasi.

With regards to information exchange it was reported by a number of respondents that very little information from these larger companies is shared with the local agencies. Often the local decision makers do not have the information at hand, while the larger companies may not necessarily have any benefits to share their information. A mutually beneficial relation is to cater for the lack of information resource at the local government by some form of financial resource. This mutually beneficial relation has led to situations where: • •

“entertainment” fees are provided to obtain and “manipulate” information, Internal costs are used to revise and/or create information according to own needs.

The underlying reasons for information scarcity were investigated further. The economic explanation why organizations didn’t want to exchange information can be discussed from various perspectives. The most easy/evident argument is that it would not be in their -private or corporate - interest. There is value - opportunity cost and potential income - attached to the information. It is not so much the intrinsic value, because often the information is not of high quality, is not complete, etc., but the potential income involved in making the data useful is of interest. Some developers manipulate therefore the information indirectly to their own advantage, by voluntarily transferring "entertainment fees". Yet, the economic argumentation cannot be the only valid one. Because, the reverse question, under which circumstances were organizations and individuals within these organizations willing (voluntarily or with force) to exchange, or stronger, why organizations would want to exchange, offers different possibilities. One can observe that the satellite images, Ikonos in Kabupaten, Quickbird in Bekasi, were easily copied and exchanged transhorizontally. This would suggest that either:

1) Insufficient human capacity to assess the economic interest or extra economic interest;


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2) Wrong assessment of the internal information resource; 3) An “easy” opportunity to seek externalization of human resources upgrade. For each one could give the following reasons and observations: 1) Insufficient human capacity to assess the economic interest or extra economic interest: The technology to capture this and the cost related to capture the data is perhaps not yet understood. In different departments/offices one could not explain exactly what sort of image it was with which projection, coordinate system, whether it was rectified, etc. At higher echelons, one did not even speak about it. Or, it is realized that the cost is so incredibly high, that one can understand that it is best to exchange at the lowest cost possible, and to share wherever possible. Furthermore, it was observed that none of the information users - notaries/developers - were aware / interested in the ikonos image, available at horizontal kabupaten level. They were not expecting a significant lower percentage of "entertainment costs" with newer technologies/ processes applied at BPN or Bappeda , for instance. 2) Wrong assessment of the internal information resource The common response for why exchange was easy was: “it could be used as an internal base map”. This seems to indicate that there is foremost an internal - operational interest, and no external opportunity cost- seen. At BPN one technical person spoke of building a spatial info domain, a mini SDI. The need for sharing was thus understood at technical level. At the central BPN office the management was advocating and stimulating more complete and accessible data sets at the local level. This included having a complete base map (peta tunggal / lengkap), and information counters where customers can see the status of their requests. The first trials were in the special province area (DKI) of Jakarta, and Bekasi city. Yet, as long as there are no dedicated electronic networks between offices, extranets, or internet connections used for operational purposes to automatically update and/or exchange information, there may really not be any economic advantage of a common base map. In other words, there may not be any economic interest, benefit to stop exchanging or to promote exchanging. 3) Externalization of human resources upgrade Rather than for economic reasons, the main reason for the willingness to exchange satellite imagery freely is probably a human resource one: • Capacity upgrade of individual staff. It is realized among younger technical staff that in other kabupatens / kota's more sophisticated technology is used. Aware of the rotational system of staff, voluntarily working and exploring new technologies may be a major incentive, so that one can be transferred to such a more technological oriented place, which would provide a higher status and more career opportunities • Social reasons – some staff indicated to fear vertical repercussions if they were to do things wrong. It was perceived that there was insufficient

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•

technical know-how at local level, because this expertise was very centralized at national and provincial level. Historical coincidence. One could argue that the use and exchange of satellite imagery at local level could have not happened earlier, beucase many of the images were already available. Yet, the occurrence of Ikonos images being available somewhat coincided with the establishment of local autonomy. It was only around this time that individual organizations at local level started to look for possibilities of acquiring spatial information. Ikonos is now considered the state of the art by many local organizations, while before organizations were not aware of other possibilities, such as Landsat or Spot, or other RS products (NOAA, Indian images, etc.). As a result, only now informal exchange of human resources and information takes place horizontally at a very low profile level.

5.5.2. Influence of External processes And / or Influences An aspect of non-institutional relations is the influence, or better, the perception of the influence, of the private sector in the government affairs. If we mention again that influence of one actor over another can be explained by asymmetric relations, than this asymmetry became most apparent by a number of observations of physical artifacts, depicted in Figures 15 to :

Figure 15. Banner of local government Bekasi.

Figure 15 shows banners by the sublocal government of South Cikarang under the local government of Bekasi. It is a notice which translates as “when you have problems with building permits please contact the local government of South Cikarang”. This is quite remarkable because the banner was placed in front of the Lippo (Real Estate developer) information office. This developer made its own building rules in the Lippo area, and apparently these rules were considered contradictory with local government regulations. The question this emerges which organization has more authority over the building regulations, if the local government find themselves forced to influence local resident by these sorts of banners. It suggests that the local government does not have sufficient authority in large real estate complexes.


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Figure 16. Directional road signs of Lippo Cikarang and Cikarang.

The road signs depicted in Figure 16 appear some 200m after each other. They refer to the same off-ramp, and to the same area, but they are different in the name that they refer to. When asked about their area of residence the most common name among resident of the area was the first – Lippo Cikarang. This refers however to the use of real estate name rather than the use of the local government name. This preference for the real estate developers’ names of the areas over the official government names of the geographic areas suggests a larger perceived influence of the real estate developer in the area, which may suggest an asymmetry of resources. Figure 17 shows a number of billboards, when leaving the toll road in Cikarang. Notice the specific bill board refering to Jababeka City, which is the name given by another developer, and the one to the industrial area EJIP (“Cikarang Selatan”). Remarkable is that there is no specific reference to the official public administrative names (official name of the local administration is called “Cikarang Pusat”), but only to the private developer’s names. Again, the argument here is that public awareness is strongly influenced by resource dependencies of larger private companies.

Figure 17. Billboards when entering Cikarang.

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Figure 18. Entrance to Delta Mas City.

Figure 18 shows the entrance to Delta Mas City. This is actually part of Cikarang city, but the area is again named after its developer Sinar Mas. Notice here the contrast between the Hollywood-like entrance “Kota Delta Mas” and the simple (official) reference to “Cikarang Timur” – East Cikarang above the toll road gates. All examples show the influence on the perception of citizens of spatial territory, or in other words, on how spatial reality is perceived. Most citizens are referring to the real estate agency names of space rather than the public spatial territories. From an information perspective, these commercial names would than also provide better reference to citizens, which can also be seen in most available spatial databases at local level. Economically one can conclude that private spatial interference is than dominant for information exchange, while from an institutional perspective one could conclude that the private developers are more of an institution than the local authorities. From a resource dependency perspective one could argue that individual citizens are willing to trade in their information resource - the name of a city as commonly known and utilized - for a financial resource – the access and use of economic facilities. This trade obviously creates mutual dependency relations at local – horizontal - level only, and not so much in a vertical way.

5.4.3. Summary of Dependency Relations The findings described above can be summarized in the following Table 9, showing the behavior of seeking relations of the organizations included in this survey:


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Table 9. Degree of resource dependency

Type of organization Bappeda - Urban / regional planning offices BPN – land office PBB – land and building tax Land survey offices Kecamatans – district (submunicipality) government BPS – statistical office PU – public works

Land use and building permit offices

Public sector information agencies Notaries, land transaction officers, law firms Land developers

Property brokers / agents Land, IT and public management Consultants and academics Academic institutions National (professional) Associations Libraries

Type of behavior found towards resources Internalise Externalise Fragmented staff rotation Hierarchical and fragmented information collection Hierarchical information Little collection Hierarchical finance collection Fragmented information collection Transsectoral expertise Hierarchical funding and information exchange Transhorizontal and Little capacity to undertake transvertical relations actions Hierarchical information No cooperation sought collection Horizontal cooperation in Hierarchical and projects Fragmented information resources Internal work procedures Non-Fragmented information collection and Non Hierarchical resource exchange with private sector Fragmented information Fragmented information acquisition delivery in exchange for information Horizontal relations within Fragmented informationprofessional organization based relations Security arrangements on Non-hierarchical and Nontheir plans and investments fragmented information acquisition Information acquisition and Little maintenance Little Little

Fragmented Human capacity Shared knowledge and expertise Internal information resources

Hierarchical Long term projects Little Little

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6. CONCLUSIONS Going back to the starting point of which model would best describe the relations between local SDIs, the conclusions with regards to each of the propositions are in figure 4: The Proposition 1 seems to be true: In most of the cases, the mutual resources dependencies can explain current behaviour of local organizations. The results in figure 10 seem to highlight these mutual dependencies, although it must be acknowledged that figure 10 only shows a snapshot in time. It is clear that dependencies are changing with the new decentralization practices and the resulting changes in authorities over financial allocations. These changes are currently the main barrier towards more sustainable information exchange. In that sense proposition 2 also seems validated. The lack of financial resources at local offices of BPN for example would predict seeking strategic relations with the local governments which would have these financial resources. Such an attempt happened partly by the constitution of local land offices - the Dinas Pertanahan – but was quickly abolished by the re-installation of local BPN offices. Instead, BPN is now seeking more long-term relations with information users such as notaries and land developers in exchange for financial resources. Finally, if the structure of local SDIs and the relation of local SDIs with national SDIs can be explained by resource dependency, than the policy to develop an “optimal” structure is one where such dependencies are mutually beneficial. This is different from the other views (hierarchical and fragmentation). In the hierarchical view national SDIs often exercise more influence over the local SDIs, for example by creating funding dependencies or by regulating information collections. The resource dependency theory predicts however that this would create asymmetric relations, leading to strategic behaviour to reduce the asymmetry. This behaviour could be such that dependency relations with other actors – including those outside the SDI community - would be initialised, leading to fragmentation of local SDIs. The resource-dependency theory can thus sufficiently predict and explain the existence of both hierarchical and fragmented SDIs views, but also understands that the initial conceptions of how an SDI behaves may influence the way that SDIs are developing in reality. The resource dependency theory proves therefore a good vehicle to synthesize the understanding derived from both earlier approaches, and adds an instrument to influence policies and strategies. Based on these results, one can conclude that the resource-dependency-based ontology of SDIs explains more elements than the other two views do individually. The major advantage of the resource-dependency-based ontology of SDIs over the other two views is thus that it can be better used for local SDI development plans. These conclusions also provide a scope for supplementary research: • •

•

A longitudinal research in the same area, to observe which current behavior of the organizations is only temporary and which is more structural Research on comparative cases of local SDIs in similar regions, in and outside Indonesia, and in similar sectors, such as water resources information exchange, forestry information exchange. Further evaluation of the vertical relations and the existence or non-existence of vertical dependency links. This could be studied in more depth by specifically looking at the intermediary administrative role of provinces and kecamatans. Such a


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study could better highlight the vertical government-to-government information resource dependencies. A study which would include knowledge as a resource for horizontal government–togovernment relations could possibly reveal more about the role of knowledge of local traditions, local social structures, local perceptions on spatial dimensions and identification of local people and organizations with local cities and environments.

7. REFERENCES Antima, 2003. DPRD Kota Bekasi Pertanyakan Kejelasan Status BPN., Kompas Cyber Media. Bennington, L. and Habir, A.D., 2003. Human resource management in Indonesia. Human Resource Management Review, 13(3): 373-392. Boston, J., 2000. The challenge of evaluating systemic change: the case of public management reform. International Public Management Journal, 3(1): 23-46. BPN, 2005. BPN Standar Prosedur Operasi Pengaturan Dan Pelayanan (Spopp -2005). Brandsen, T., 2004. Quasi-market governance. An anatomy of innovation. Lemma Publishers, Utrecht. Burgers, J., 2002. De gefragmenteerde stad, Oratie hoogleraar grootstedelijke vraagstukken. EUR, Boom, Amsterdam. Car, A., 1997. Hierarchical spatial reasoning: Theoretical consideration and its application to modelling wayfinding. PhD thesis Thesis, Technical University Vienna. Central Bureau of Statistics, 2000. Penduduk Indonesia, Hasil Sensus Penduduk 2000. seri RBL1.2. Chan, T.O. and Williamson, I.P., 1999. Spatial data infrastructure management: Lessons from corporate GIS development. . , AURISA’99. Blue Mountains NSW, AURISA’99: CD-ROM. de Man, W.H.E., 2004. And if geospatial data infrastructures were fragmented and splintering?, GISDECO 2004 , 7th international seminar on GIS for developing countries : GIS capacity building and infrastructure, Johor, Malaysia, pp. 10 p. Georgiadou, P.Y. and Blakemore, M., 2006. A journey through GIS discourses. . URISA journal : journal of the Urban and Regional Information Systems Association, (2006)In Press: 17 p. [last date of access November 2006] Harvey, F., 2003. Developing geographic information infrastructures for local government: the role of trust. The Canadian Geographer, 47( (1)): 28-36. Harvey, F. and Tulloch, D., 2006. Local-government data sharing: Evaluating the foundations of spatial data infrastructures. International Journal of Geographic Information Science, 20(7): 743 - 768. Homburg, V.M.F., 1999. The political economy of information management. A theoretical and empirical analysis of decision making regarding interorganizational information systems. PhD Theses series on systems, organizations and management Thesis, University of Groningen. Irwanto, F., 2006a. Masalah privatisasi BUMN. Kompas, 1 Februari 2006: 33.

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Irwanto, F., 2006b. State owned enterprises performance after privatization: Evidence of Republic of Indonesia. MSc Thesis, Rijks Universiteit Groningen - University Uppsala University Florida, Groningen. Kap, A., Loenen, B.v. and Vries, M.d., 2004. Harmonized access to heterogeneous content: Towards a european SDI, AGILE Conference, Heraklion, Greece, pp. 27-32. Kitamura, T. and Rustiadi, E., 1997. Basic trends in land use /cover change in Indonesia. Korsten, A.F.A. et al., 2002. Samen en toch apart. Naar een facilitar bedrijf van gemeenteambtenaren voor contracterende gemeenten als vorm van vernieuwing, Open Universiteit Nederland, Heerlen. Lance, K.T., Georgiadou, Y. and Bregt, A., 2006. Understanding how and why practitioners evaluate SDI performance. Article under review for the International Journal of Spatial Data Infrastructure Research, submitted 2006-08-16. Masser, I., 1998. The First Generation of National Geographic Information Strategies, GSDI. Moon, M.J., 2002. The Evolution of E-Government among Municipalities: Rhetoric or Reality? Public Administration Review, Volume 62( Issue 4- July/August 2002): Page 424. NES, 2006. Mengajak Masyarakat Memetakan Sendiri -, Kompas, pp. 55. Olowu, D., 2003. Challenge of multi-level governance in developing countries and possible GIS applications. Habitat International, 27(4): 501-522. Pendit, P.L., 2003. The use of information technology in public information services : an interpretative study of structural change via technology in the Indonesian Civil Service. In ,"Proceedings CONSAL XII "Information Resources Empowerment : Enhancing Knowledge Heritage", Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei Darussalam). Peta, 2006. Pencopotan Bupati Bekasi. Antara Leliru kop surat hingga dendam politik. Peta, Tahun 2(51): 21. Pfeffer, J. and Salancik, G.R., 1978. The external control of organizations: a resource dependency perspective. Harper and Row, New York. PIN, 2006. Bojong Mungkin ditinggalkan DKI. Jakarta Gandeng Bekasi dan investor. KOMPAS(Rabu, 15 Februari 2006): 27. PIN/NAW, 2006. Keuntungan Megapolitan. Busway diperpanjang ke Tangerang, Monorel ke Bekasi. Kompas(10 Februari 2006): 26. Rajabifard, A., Escobar, F. and Williamson, I.P., 2000. Hierarchical spatial reasoning applied to spatial data infrastructures. Australian Cartography Journal, 29(2): 41-50. Rajabifard, A., Feeney, M. and Williamson, I., 2002. Future directions for SDI development. International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation, vol. 4(no. 1): pp. 11-22 Rasheed, H.S. and Geiger, S., 2000. Determinants of governance structure fort he electronic value chain: Resource dependency and transaction costs perspectives. Republik Indonesia, 1999. Undang-undang no. 22 Tahun 1999 tentang Pemerintah Daerah. Republik Indonesia, 2000. Keputusan Menteri Dalam Negeri dan Otonomi Daerah (Minister of Home Affairs and Regional Autonomy's degree). Guidelines for the organizational structure of regional /local government institutions. No. 50 / 2000. Republik Indonesia, 2004. Undang-undang no. 25 Tahun 2004 tentang sistem perencanaan pembangunan nasional.


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Rieger, T., Djalal, F., St.Pamuncak, E., Ramon, R. and Soewardi, B., 2001. Decentralizing Indonesia's Land Administration System:Are local governments and land offices ready? Evidence from 27 districts., COMO GmbH/PT COMO Konsultindo, Jakarta. Rohdewohld, R., 2004. Building capacity to support decentralisation - The case of Indonesia (1999-2004). In: T. The Institute for International Cooperation (IFIC), Japan, http:// www.capacitywhoiswho.net/index.cfm?module=Events&page=EventBackgroundInf o&EventID=7 (Editor), Tokyo International Symposium on Capacity Development, Tokyo, pp. 12. Silas, J., 2002. Mega Urbanization: new town and city setting, Mega Urbanization seminar at University of Leiden, University of Leiden. Snellen, I.T.M. and Donk, W.B.H.J.v.d., 1998. Public administration in an information age, A handbook. Informatization developments and the public sector, 6, 579 pp. Tolofari, S., 2005. New public management and education. Policy futures in education, 3(1): 75-89. Trung, T.N. and Grant, D., 2005. Why copying LIS from a developed country does not work for a developing country?, GSDI-8, Cairo, pp. 16. Wehn de Montalvo, U., 2003. In search of rigourous models for policy-oriented research: A behavioral approach to spatial data sharing. URISA Journal, 15(1): 19-28. Williamson, I.P., Rajabifard, A. and M.-E., F., 2003. Developing Spatial Data Infrastructures: From Concept to Reality. Taylor & Francis, 352 pp pp. Wisner, B., Toulmin, C. and Chitiga, R., 2005. Towards a new map of Africa. Earthscan, London etc., 352 p. pp. Worldbank, 2005. Making Decentralization work, Worldbank. Yin, R.K., 1997. The abridged version of case study research, design and methods. In: I.L.B.D.G.R. (Eds) (Editor), Handbook of applied social research methods. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp. 229-259. Yin, R.K., 2003. Case study research : design and methods /. Applied social research methods series ; vol. 5. Thousand Oaks, CA [etc.] : Sage, XVI, 181 p pp. YNT/BAY/D09/NAW, 2006. Sutiyoso: Megapolitan bukan pencaplokan, Kompas, pp. 26.



Chapter 3

THE HABITATS DIRECTIVE AS A DRIVER FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL ZONE: THE EXAMPLE OF THE HUMBER ESTUARY Roger K. A. Morris Policy Team, Natural England, Northminster House, Peterborough PE1 1UA, United Kingdom

Peter Barham Sustainable Development Unit, Associated British Ports, 150 Holborn, London EC1N 2LR, United Kingdom

SUMMARY The Habitats Directive contains clear indications in its preamble that its purpose is to foster Sustainable Development. This paper discusses the implementation of the Habitats Directive in England, with particular reference to the coastal zone with special emphasis upon the Humber Estuary. It highlights examples where genuine Sustainable Development solutions have been found, and shows that habitat re-creation projects are possible in dynamic coastal environments. In these situations Sustainable Development is realistically possible. There are, however, a variety of ongoing impediments to the delivery of Sustainable Development in the coastal zone and an unrealistic expectation that Sustainable Development is achievable in all cases. In the terrestrial environment the prospects of achieving Sustainable Development solutions are far less certain. Where Sustainable Development is not achievable, policy-makers and decision-makers face the challenge of finding alternative solutions. We offer thoughts on the strategic planning frameworks for coastal management needed to reinforce the benefits of the Habitats Directive whilst not impeding projects that are fundamental to the national interest. As this article represents developing thinking it does not necessarily reflect the views of our respective organisations or UK Government policy.

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INTRODUCTION The EC Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC is approaching its fifteenth year and as the European Community enlarges, and original signatories enjoy continued economic prosperity, pressure grows for review of the Habitats Directive in advance of scheduled review in 2010 [1]. This pressure has reached such a level that the German Government is reportedly intent on seeking early review in of the Directive in 2007 [2]. Many issues have emerged but widespread failure to understand that the Directive’s objectives, and what these mean in real terms, is particularly relevant to any discussion about Sustainable Development. Contrary to some popular beliefs [3] the Directive was designed as a contribution to Sustainable Development as described in the opening recitals: “Whereas the preservation, protection and improvement of the quality of the environment, including the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora, are an essential objective of general interest pursued by the Community, as stated in Article 130r of the Treaty; Whereas the European Community policy and action programme on the environment (1987 to 1992)(4) makes provision for measures regarding the conservation of nature and natural resources; Whereas, the main aim of this Directive being to promote the maintenance of biodiversity, taking account of economic, social, cultural and regional requirements, this Directive makes a contribution to the general objective of sustainable development; whereas the maintenance of such biodiversity may in certain cases require the maintenance, or indeed the encouragement, of human activities.”

The wording of the Habitats Directive confirms that it was not the intention of the signatories to preclude all development proposals within or affecting Natura 2000 sites (Special Protection Areas and Special Areas of Conservation). It is equally clear that this Directive was intended to secure sufficiency of habitat to safeguard the wildlife interest of Europe. The aspirations are sound, but during implementation phases there have been numerous difficulties arising from misinterpretations and sectoral positioning to reinforce or counter its objectives. It is therefore important to establish some basic points to emphasise the contribution of the Directive to Sustainable Development: 1. Sustainable Development does not equate solely to sustainable economic growth. Economic growth is reliant upon many parameters, but importantly resource availability, labour market pressures, money supply and a plethora of additional economic and political drivers govern it. The key pinch points relate to supply and demand, and if demand outstrips supply then inflationary pressures will create readjustments until the market cannot absorb further price rises – typical boom and bust cycles with wealth at its pinnacle and poverty and company failure at the base. In a growth environment, pressure is exerted upon the natural environment as cheap unoccupied land is sought out for development. This pressure is very clearly apparent in a recent review of the land use planning system for the UK treasury [4] where, for example, concerns have been raised about the nature conservation designations and their potential to “unduly constrain sustainable economic development”.

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 111 2. Land is a finite resource and one that is likely to diminish if climate change predictions are correct. It is required for, inter-alia, food production and harvesting, raw materials, housing, transport infrastructure, industry and recreation. Unoccupied land (i.e. wildlife sites) is to a large extent that land that has been least suited to agriculture and as a consequence it is this land that is often the focus for development opportunities. 3. In developed countries, the amount of unoccupied land allocated to wildlife is a social decision, based upon values. In the Third World, the drive for economic prosperity over-rides social values, and consequently habitat destruction continues either until it is too late or until the economic well-being of people gives them time to reflect and develop values. This is emphasised by Bruntland [5] who stresses that “poverty is a major cause and effect of global economic problems”. This is best illustrated by deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia to feed demand for land to support cattle, soya and palm oil production. In the developed world we place a higher social value upon wildlife, but only now that the majority has been lost. The drainage of the fens of East Anglia and the Upper Humber equate in many ways to modern-day deforestation, but are beyond societal memory because they were largely lost in the 17th and 18th Centuries. Now so little is left, we seek to safeguard what remains. 4. Sustainable Development is a concept, based on values and aspirations. Bruntland [5] emphasises this in her references to the natural world; for example “but utility aside, there are also moral, ethical, cultural aesthetic and purely scientific reasons for conserving wild beings”. It also recognises the potential for compromise to benefit all interests and Bruntland continually stresses the importance of technological progress. But, a framework for Sustainable Development that does not arrest the loss of resources available to wildlife will inevitably lead to imbalances where extinctions at local, national or international levels continue unabated. Equally, a framework that fails to find solutions that allow commerce to prosper will ultimately lead to economic collapse and less capacity to develop values beyond those of socioeconomics (i.e. a shift towards Third World economics). 5. Thus, a Sustainable Development framework needs to make appropriate provisions for all parties (economic, social and environmental) that creates a market and checks and balances that lead to wise use of resources and measures to husband those resources that are valued. The Habitats Directive is an important contribution that needs to be seen in this context. 6. The Habitats Directive essentially creates the environmental and economic conditions for wildlife and human activity to be considered on equal terms. The market is set such that wildlife areas should no longer be seen as the point of least resistance for expansion in economic activity and such areas need to be seen in this context. The tests are strict and include a strong precautionary element that is intended to ensure that the impact on wildlife is properly considered, bearing in mind the comparatively small proportion of Europe’s surface area allocated to wildlife. The tests of the Directive are described in Figure 1, a decision tree that explains the sequence of tests that create the audit trail leading to a particular decision. 7. Wildlife conservation has direct parallels to economic performance: increase availability of habitat (resources) and wildlife suited to that habitat will flourish

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Roger K. A. Morris and Peter Barham (growth), but decrease its availability and organisms (companies) will die out (fail). Some wildlife is unselective (i.e. unskilled) and some is highly specialised (highly skilled), and in the modern world the specialised wildlife is suffering the equivalent of a skills shortage. Sites designated as Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) and Special Protection Areas (SPA) represent the same critical capital as the skill base that is required to maintain a high technology industry.

Art. 6.3. Is the plan or project directly related and necessary to the management of the site?

Yes The proposal may proceed

Note: in the UK management is largely regarded as traditional land management activities.

No Art. 6.3. Is the plan or project likely to have a significant effect on the Natura 2000 site?

No

The plan or project may proceed subject to any other relevant considerations.

Yes Art. 6.3. Can it be concluded that the proposals will not have an adverse affect on the Natura 2000 interest?

Yes

The plan or project may proceed subject to any other relevant considerations.

No

Art. 6.4. Could the plan or project be achieved by alternative solutions?

Likely significant effect is a coarse filter. It does not mean that there will be an effect, but seeks to establish the risk that there will be an effect that requires consideration i.e. it is the screening stage.

Case law is clear that the judgement must establish no adverse affect. It is at this stage that mitigation measures designed to avoid any adverse affects need to be taken into account. If it cannot be ascertained that there will be no adverse affect, Article 6.4. applies.

The proposals may not proceed.

Alternatives include the possibility of achieving the same result at an alternative location.

Art. 6.4. Is the plan or project justifiable on imperative reasons of over-riding public interest (IROPI), which may include those of a socio-economic nature?

IROPI is not defined but there are a wide variety of examples that provide some indication of what might constitute IROPI.

Yes

No

Art. 6.4. Does the site support a priority habitat or species?

No

Yes Art. 6.4. Are there imperative reasons relating to human health and safety or beneficial consequences to the environment?

Yes Yes

Art. 6.4. The proposal may proceed providing appropriate compensatory measures are secured.

No

Compensatory measures must be capable of replacing habitat lost. This may mean that some habitats cannot be replaced and possibly means that some developments may not proceed. This has yet to be tested.

The proposal may only proceed following consultation between Government and the European Commission.

Figure 1. Decision Tree for Implementation of Habitats Directive.

An important advance arising from the introduction of the Habitats and Birds Directives is that social and economic issues cannot be used as a reason for non-designation, as confirmed by European Court Judgement in relation to site selection and submission of Member States’ lists [6]. This is the right approach if nature conservation and wildlife is not to take a subservient position to social and economic considerations. This represents a

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 113 paradigm shift in modern thinking even though many primitive societies revered and valued the natural world for the role it played in providing food and shelter. Such a shift requires clear rules of engagement to ensure that historic approaches to prioritisation are not continued. This is where the Habitats Directive is particularly strong because it is a framework for decision-making and in other words is an audit trail. If it works properly the end of the trail should place wildlife in as strong a position as other influences. The Directive recognises that there will be localised gains and losses and that wildlife may have to be displaced; it also ensures that commercial development looks for alternative locations before settling on what would formerly have been regarded as the point of least resistance. This changed approach is proving to be painful to some who seek revision of the Habitats Directive, and the procedural complications influence others to argue that it is too onerous. In this account we aim to show that neither of the major objections need apply provided there is clarity about the Directives’ objectives across the political spectrum, and there is commitment to make the Directive work rather than trying to find a way around its provisions. Our examples are drawn from the development of a modern ports industry in England where there are numerous examples of good practice and clear pointers as to the most appropriate way forward to secure Sustainable Development solutions for essential projects.

THE PROVISIONS OF THE HABITATS DIRECTIVE IN RELATION TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Article 6 of the Directive has four sub-clauses, which form the basis for decision-making in relation to development control. These are: “6.1. For special areas of conservation, Member States shall establish the necessary conservation measures involving, if need be, appropriate management plans specifically designed for the sites or integrated into other development plans, and appropriate statutory, administrative or contractual measures which correspond to the ecological requirements of the natural habitat types in Annex I and the species in Annex II present on the sites. 6.2. Member States shall take appropriate steps to avoid, in the special areas of conservation, the deterioration of natural habitats and the habitats of species as well as disturbance of the species for which the areas have been designated, in so far as such disturbance could be significant in relation to the objectives of this Directive. 6.3. Any plan or project not directly connected with or necessary to the management of the site but likely to have a significant effect thereon, either individually or in combination with other plans or projects, shall be subject to appropriate assessment of its implications for the site in view of the site's conservation objectives. In the light of the conclusions of the assessment of the implications for the site and subject to the provisions of paragraph 4, the competent national authorities shall agree to the plan or project only after having ascertained that it will not adversely affect the integrity of the site concerned and, if appropriate, after having obtained the opinion of the general public. 6.4. If, in spite of a negative assessment of the implications for the site and in the absence of alternative solutions, a plan or project must nevertheless be carried out for imperative reasons of overriding public interest, including those of a social or economic nature, the

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Roger K. A. Morris and Peter Barham Member State shall take all compensatory measures necessary to ensure that the overall coherence of Natura 2000 is protected. It shall inform the Commission of the compensatory measures adopted. Where the site concerned hosts a priority natural habitat type and/or a priority species, the only considerations which may be raised are those relating to human health or public safety, to beneficial consequences of primary importance for the environment or, further to an opinion from the Commission, to other imperative reasons of overriding public interest.”

Articles 6.3 and 6.4 hold the key to the audit trail, which follows the decision-tree depicted in Figure 1. This audit trail depends upon some fundamental judgements and changes in thinking within the commercial and political worlds that have yet to become fully embedded: •

•

•

•

•

Designation of a site as a Natura 2000 site (Special Protection Area or Special Area of Conservation) should be recognised as an indication that development proposals are likely to undergo particularly rigorous scrutiny. As we show in our introductory section, designations are there to give nature conservation an equal say at the table of Sustainable Development. Nature conservation designations cover remarkably little of the total surface area of Europe and in England amount to just 8.12% of total land area to mean low water with the greatest proportions in upland locations (see Table 1). As a consequence they need to be seen for what they are – a finite and everdiminishing resource. Sustainable Development does mean that one must expect there to be further development, some of which will affect nature conservation sites. But, equally, it also means that some development proposals will fail because the case has not been proven that there are no alternatives and that it should not take priority over nature conservation. In this respect, the decision to reject proposals for the Dibden Bay port development reinforces this message. The developer must therefore be clear why the location is essential and must realise that interaction with nature conservation interests is likely. If there is a likely detrimental impact on the wildlife interest and it can be avoided by relocation it should be. It is not acceptable simply to seek a change in the provisions of the Directive because they are excluding non-essential proposals from important wildlife sites. There is also an onus on environmental consultants to steer their clients away from designated sites and for the developer to recognise that if his proposal is consented it is likely to depend upon offsetting measures that need to be built into the initial business case. In the early days of port interaction with the Habitats Directive in England this was not always the case and consequently efforts were made to follow the traditional approach of trying to prove that there would not be adverse impacts. Subsequent cases proved that this was an unwise approach that was likely to incur huge costs and end in failure. Guidance is needed so that developers are clear about the types of project that are likely to be judged as meeting the tests of Imperative Reasons of Over-riding Public Interest. This may come from outright statements by Member States in relation to particular industries or proposals, or may be established through broader policy

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 115

•

•

statements that recognise national, regional and local factors that might make a project or sector particularly important. There are inevitably some projects that require unusual parameters (e.g. a coastal location) and where new infrastructure complements existing infrastructure whose consequences would be lower than at a green-field site. Key issues in the coastal zone relate to the provision of new transport links and dredged channels, together with proximity to markets. Existing policy frameworks may therefore require adjustment. The wise developer will make sure that the competent authorities can be satisfied that the business case is sound, that market predictions are available, that they have been analysed for a detailed “needs case”, and that alternative solutions have been adequately evaluated and rejected for justifiable reasons. The need to provide compensatory measures is important in this respect. The developer must be satisfied that his case is sufficiently robust to justify investment in the site investigations, environmental statement and passage through the consenting processes. The project budget must also take adequate account of the costs of compensatory provisions and if they make the project uneconomic then the project should justifiably fail to proceed, as there is almost certainly an alternative to habitat loss. There is nothing to be gained by trying to argue that nature conservation losses to development proposals should be accepted because the project will benefit the built environment. This contention is not infrequently proposed by developers who suggest that wildlife losses are environmentally acceptable because they will lead to some other form of environmental gain. Regarding the environment as a landscape or built environment overlooks the fundamental services provided by the natural environment, ranging from nursery areas for fish, to carbon and nutrient sequestration and places of tranquillity in an ever-faster world. The absence of checks and balances will lead to the inevitable loss of key ecosystem services that maintain human society, and will ultimately mean the failure of Sustainable Development. Table 1. Nature conservation designations in England

Habitats

SSSI* ha

Uplands Lowland s Coastal (to MLW) Totals

450,500 370,640 255,300 1,076,440

% England as SSSI* 3.39% 2.80% 1.97% 8.12%

Natura 2000 ha 378,670 215,180 233,690 827,500

% England as Natura 2000 2.86% 1.62% 1.76% 6.25%

* Sites of Special Scientific Interest, designated under the Wildlife & Countryside Act, 1981.

Whilst changes are sought from the commercial world, NGOs and statutory bodies responsible for nature conservation need to be alert to the drivers that may make proposals attractive to decision-makers. Experience of the ports industry in England has shown that they must have a clear understanding of the market economics that drive particular industries. Political sensitivity is also needed to adequately judge where the best effort is expended in finding Sustainable Development solutions and where opposition to a proposal is necessary to ensure wise husbandry of resources. Promotion of a centrally planned approach to

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development is unlikely to meet with success in a market-led economy, such as that of the United Kingdom, but may work where key infrastructure projects are promoted and funded by the Government. The UK Government’s recent Select Committee report on the ports industry [7] reinforces this message but does make clear Government’s possible role in manipulating regional market share. Table 2. Habitats Directive Priority Habitats and Species in the UK Habitat 1150 Coastal lagoons

Species 1390 Western rustwort Marsupella profunda

1340 Inland salt meadows 2130 Fixed dunes with herbaceous vegetation (`grey dunes`) 2140 Decalcified fixed dunes with Empetrum nigrum 2150 Atlantic decalcified fixed dunes (CallunoUlicetea) 2250 Coastal dunes with Juniperus spp. 3170 Mediterranean temporary ponds 3180 Turloughs 4020 Temperate Atlantic wet heaths with Erica ciliaris and Erica tetralix 4040 Dry Atlantic coastal heaths with Erica vagans 6211 Semi-natural dry grasslands and scrubland facies: on calcareous substrates (Festuco-Brometalia) (important orchid sites) 6230 Species-rich Nardus grassland, on siliceous substrates in mountain areas (and submountain areas in continental Europe) 7110 Active raised bogs 7130 Blanket bogs 7210 Calcareous fens with Cladium mariscus and species of the Caricion davallianae 7220 Petrifying springs with tufa formation (Cratoneurion) 7240 Alpine pioneer formations of the Caricion bicoloris-atrofuscae 8240 Limestone pavements 9180 Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes and ravines 91C0 Caledonian forest 91D0 Bog woodland 91E0 Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (Alno-Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae) 91J0 Taxus baccata woods of the British Isles Source: JNCC. http://www.jncc.gov.uk/ProtectedSites/SACselection/SAC_habitats.asp


WHERE IS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE? It is clear from the recitals within the Habitats Directive and the provisions of Article 6 of the Directive, that the signatories expected there to be an element of loss and gain. The Directive departs from traditional approaches, however, because it introduces the strict application of a precautionary approach where lack of impact on wildlife must be proven rather than relying on a “balancing judgement” between a negative impact on wildlife and presumed economic or social imperatives. The risk of permanent loss of critical habitat and vulnerable species was also recognised by the creation of priority habitats and species (table 2). These equate to the most vulnerable, and arguably the least re-creatable habitats, and the species most in need of attention. The composition of the list of priority habitats is open to debate, and may be narrower than evidence on habitat re-creatability would support. If decision-makers are to judge the merits of a particular proposal there is a need to take into account the potential for replacing lost habitat. Importantly, there is a difference between habitat re-creation and the development of ecosystem function within a habitat. So, for example, it might be argued that the visible components of a grassland may be re-created over a relatively short time-frame (say 50 years), but the functional components comprising soil chemistry, microbiology and mycology may take much longer to establish. In essence, the most readily re-creatable habitats are those associated with dynamic conditions [8] and the least re-creatable reflect the time-scale over which the habitat has developed (see table 3). It is also important to take account of significant changes in agricultural practice in the past 60 years. Artificial nutrient input, application of pesticides and deep ploughing have combined to change soil biology to such an extent that past evidence of habitat re-creatability cannot be taken as indicative of what is now possible. Experience to date relates largely to terrestrial and inter-tidal habitats and we have comparatively little knowledge of time-scales required for re-establishment of functional ecosystems in the sub-tidal environment. For the purposes of this paper we therefore avoid consideration of Sustainable Development in the subtidal marine environment. Although there may be circumstances on land where Sustainable Development solutions can be found, the coastal zone provides an insight into what is possible and also into the measures needed to improve certainty of success. Port development projects in England and across northern Europe are amongst the best examples of Sustainable Development solutions [9]. In these cases there is robust evidence of the re-creatability of a variety of habitats ranging from saline mudflats and saltmarshes to freshwater inter-tidal riverine habitats and ruderal habitats favoured by breeding terns (Sterna sp.) and ringed plovers (Charadrius hiaticula). It would therefore be a logical extension of this argument to recognise that certain types of Sustainable Development solutions may be more practical to implement, and that as a consequence the intensity of testing the acceptability of a proposal may ultimately relate to the re-creatability of the habitat. There are a number of estuaries in England where Sustainable Development solutions have been found. These include compensatory habitat creation and sediment management on the Stour and Orwell Estuary (home to the ports of Felixstowe, Harwich and Ipswich), sediment management within Poole Harbour and compensatory habitat creation measures on the Thames Estuary. Each offers a useful insight into particular aspects of Sustainable Development. For the purposes of this paper we have opted to consider in more detail the

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Humber Estuary. This is where we both have had an intimate involvement in the development of a strategic approach to port development. It highlights many of the issues that have informed the development of convergent thinking on ways of making a next step into strategic planning for essential development whilst working to secure improved wildlife management. Table 3. Relative time-scales for re-creation of a selection of habitats (non-exhaustive) Habitat Temporary pools Eutrophic ponds

Time-scale 1-5 years

Mudflats Eutrophic grasslands Reedbeds Saltmarshes

1-10 years 1-20 years

Oligotrophic grasslands Chalk grasslands Yellow Dunes

20-100 years +

Heathlands

50-100 years +

Grey dunes and dune slacks Ancient Woodlands

100-500 years

Vegetated shingle structures Blanket Bogs

500 – 5000 years

Raised Bogs Limestone Pavements Pingoes Turloughs

1-5 years

10-100 years 10-100 years

50-100 years + 50-100 years +

500 – 2000 years

Notes May never support some faunas e.g. Triops and Cheirocephalus, but rapidly colonised by water beetles. Creatable provided adequate water supply. Readily colonised by water beetles and dragonflies but faunas restricted to those with limited specialisms. Include ponds created for Great Crested Newts Triturus vulgatus. Dependent upon position in tidal frame and sediment supply. Dependent upon availability of propagules. Will readily develop under appropriate water conditions. Dependent upon availability of propagules, position in tidal frame and sediment supply. Dependent upon availability of propagules and limitation of nutrient input. Dependent upon availability of propagules and limitation of nutrient input. Dependent upon sediment supply and availability of propagules. More likely to be restored than re-created. Dependent upon nutrient loading, soil structure and availability of propagules. No certainty that vertebrate and invertebrate assemblages will arrive without assistance. More likely to be restored than re-created. Probably not recreatable but potentially restorable.

No certainty of success if ecosystem function is sought – dependent upon soil chemistry and mycology plus availability of propagules. Restoration a possibility for plant assemblages but questionable for rarer invertebrates. Dependent upon sediment supply and coastal processes. Essentially un-recreatable.

1,000 – 5,000 years 1,000 – 5,000 years 10,000 years

Probably un-recreatable but will form in these timescales.

10,000 years 10,000 years

Un-recreatable but will form if a glaciation occurs. Un-recreatable but will form if a glaciation occurs.

Probably un-recreatable but will form in these timescales. Un-recreatable but will form if a glaciation occurs.


THE HUMBER ESTUARY – SETTING THE SCENE The Humber Estuary drains roughly a fifth of England [10] and ranks alongside the Severn and Thames Estuaries in size. Situated on the East Coast of England (Figure 2), it drains the rivers Aire, Ancholme, Derwent, Don, Hull, Ouse and Trent, into the North Sea. It is a typical trumpet-shaped estuary but is constrained at the Humber Bridge where it cuts through the Chalk ridges of the Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Wolds. West of this constriction lie the open flatlands of the Humberhead Levels [11] which were formerly peatlands drained by the Dutch in the 17th Century and refined during the 18th and 19th Centuries [12]. To the east lie the boulder clays of Holderness and the sand dunes and saltmarshes of the Lincolnshire coast. The estuary’s form is completed by the sand and shingle structure at Spurn, which comprises sands overlying glacial till [13] and is gradually moving westwards as the Holderness coast recedes. The floodplain of this estuary was once vast (Figure 3) but drainage and sea walls have restricted the estuary to a deep channel with shifting sandbanks and a relatively narrow fringe of saltmarsh in the few sheltered locations where such habitat can develop. Today, the Humber Estuary supports disproportionately little saltmarsh [14] and the mudflats in front of sea walls are eroding to create significant problems for the flood defence engineers. Despite these factors, the Humber is important for its wildlife interest, especially for the populations of over-wintering waterfowl [15], for its mudflats and saltmarshes, reedbeds and sand dunes, and as a conduit for migratory fish, especially for lampreys that breed in the upper reaches of the River Derwent. The wildlife importance of the Humber is recognised in its designation as a Special Protection Area under the EC Birds Directive [16], as a Ramsar Site (under the Ramsar Convention on the Protection of wetlands of International Importance) and as a possible Special Area of Conservation under the Habitats Directive [17]. The interest features for which the estuary is held to be internationally important for wildlife are listed in Table 4. There are further points of interest that qualify for inclusion under national legislation and the designation of Sites of Special Scientific Importance under UK domestic legislation (Wildlife and Countryside Act, 1981 as amended). Details of the scientific case for designation of the estuary are provided in a review by a team based at Hull University [18]. The Humber is also a working estuary with four major ports (Grimsby, Immingham, Hull and Goole), together with a number of smaller facilities (North Killingholme Haven, Keadby and Selby amongst others). Its importance was formerly derived from the fishing fleets based at Hull and Grimsby, but has latterly grown around petrochemicals, coal and iron ore, timber products, steel and paper. The port of Immingham tops the table of UK port throughput [19], contributing around 9% of total port throughput, and the other ports and wharves around the estuary makes the Humber of immense importance to the UK economy. In addition, three key coal-powered power stations (Drax, Eggborough and Ferrybridge) are mainly fuelled by coal imported at Immingham. The importance of the Humber and its tributaries for power generation is completed by the various gas-fired power stations including key capacity at Killingholme, South Humber Bank and Keadby.

Figure 2. The Humber Estuary.

Huddersfield

Halifax

Bradford

Chesterfield

Sheffield

River Don

Mansfield

Doncaster

River Aire

River Ouse

York

River Swale

Rotherham

Wakefield

Leeds

River Wharf

Harrogate

River Trent

Lincoln

Lincolnshire Wolds

0

Grimsby

Kingston upon Hull

River Hull

River Humber

Scunthorpe

Yorkshire Wolds

4

8

16

24

32 km

1:800,000

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River Wharf

River Aire

River Swale

Scunthorpe

River Don

River Ouse

River Trent

Yorkshire Wolds

Figure 3. Historic Floodplain of the River Humberand and Major Tributaries.

Rotherham

Doncaster

York

Lincolnshire Wolds

River Humber

Kingston upon Hull

River Hull

0 2.5 5

Grimsby

10

15

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Floodplain based on EA data and report The Humber Flood Risk Management Strategy (August 2004).

Floodplain

Figure 4. Manufacturing around the Humber Estuary.

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 123 Table 4. International wildlife interest of the Humber Estuary possible SAC Estuaries Coastal Lagoons Atlantic Salt Meadows Salicornia and other annuals colonising mud and sand Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at all times Sandflats which are slightly covered by seawter at all times Lampetra fluviatilis (river lamprey) Petromyzon marinus (sea lamprey)

Special Protection Area Breeding birds marsh harrier Circus aeruginosus avocet Recurvirostra avosetta little tern Sternus albifrons

Over wintering birds bittern Botarus stellaris hen harrier Circus cyaneus golden plover Pluvialis apicaria bar-tailed godwit Limosa lapponica Internationally important regularly occurring migratory species (passage) ringed plover Charadrius horticula sanderling Calidris alba redshank Tringa tetanus tetanus Internationally important regularly occurring migratory species (overwintering) shelduck Tadorna tadorna

grey plover Pluvialis squatarola lapwing Vanellus vanellus knot Calidris canutus islandica dunlin Calidris alpine alpina redshank Tringa tetanus totanus

Ramsar Site Criterion 2 an assemblage of threatened coastal and wetland invertebrates: scarce pug moth Eupithecia extensaria occidua lagoon sand shrimp Gammarus insensibilis muscid fly Spilogona biseriata ground beetle Pogonus luridipennis Criterion 3 – Internationally important wetland supporting a breeding colony of grey seals Halichoerus grypus Criterion 5 Regularly supports more than 20,000 or more waterfowl – five year peak mean 175,768 (1993-4 – 1997/8) Criterion 6 Regularly supports 1% or more of a biogeographic population of waterfowl species See SPA migratory waterfowl

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The key to the Humber’s importance as an international crossroads and transport node lies in the location of the deepwater channel, which passes close to the south shore at Immingham before shifting to the north where it coincides with the City of Hull. This channel is to a very great extent self-scouring, but there is a section between Immingham and Hull that requires frequent maintenance: the Sunk Dredged Channel. Upstream of Hull, there is little or no dredging and vessels making this journey are considerably smaller than the leviathans that regularly berth at Immingham in particular. Within the Humber floodplain, the section between Killingholme and Immingham is particularly important, supporting a range of industries with requirements for coastal locations, including the petrochemical works at Immingham, and major chemical producers Tioxide and Novartis. This area is therefore the focus for much economic activity and is regarded as a key asset in the context of Yorkshire and Humberside. A map of these various key assets is provided in Figure 4.

THE START OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OF THE HUMBER ESTUARY Before the Habitats Directive was enacted concerns had grown about the level of habitat loss on estuaries and what appeared to be a tidal wave of development proposals. This was first highlighted by Davidson et al. [20] whose report underpinned the thinking behind an initiative by English Nature (latterly the UK Government’s nature conservation adviser for England) to promote Estuary Management Plans as a possible approach to improved strategic planning for Sustainable Development. The resulting “Estuaries Initiative” set as its objective the development of Estuary Management Plans for 50% of English estuaries and thereby for 80% of estuarine habitat [21]. Given its size, it is not surprising that an Estuary Management Plan was proposed for the Humber at an early stage. This led to the establishment of the Humber Estuary Management Strategy (HEMS) with a project officer funded by English Nature. The project was run by a steering group that comprised representatives of the four Local Authorities (Local Government), the National Rivers Authority (now the Environment Agency), The Countryside Commission, nature conservation NGOs and industry (including Associated British Ports, British Aerospace and Novartis). HEMS was a brave but unsuccessful attempt at achieving an integrated plan for management of the Humber Estuary. The resulting consultation and strategy documents [22, 23] provide a first indication of the issues affecting the estuary and strategic aspirations for better management. Some important progress followed and the Environment Agency prepared a document which outlined its commitment to HEMS and set out in detail the actions that it would take to meet the objectives of HEMS [24]. All actions identified were included in the Area Management Plans and included timescales for delivery. Elsewhere, the project suffered from many problems, and was particularly challenged because it was nonstatutory and led to tension between sectoral interests that could not be resolved at any level apart from overall strategic objectives. Subsequent implementation of the strategy through the development of a management plan proved impossible and the project was disbanded in 2001. By this time, however, the legal frameworks provided by the Birds and Habitats Directives changed the rules of engagement in project planning. It is important to note, however, that not

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 125 all estuary partnerships developed out of estuary management planning suffered the same fate and some proved to be of subsequent importance in the development of Management Schemes for Marine SACs [25]. During this same period, strategic planning for flood and coastal risk management was being established. Initially the concept was confined to the open coast where Shoreline Management Planning was initiated [26]. However, large estuaries such as the Humber, Thames and Severn were clear candidates for a similar approach. Thus, in 1996, the Environment Agency embarked upon the development of the Humber Estuary Shoreline Management Plan with a dedicated project manager and a clear programme based upon the development of a clear understanding of the geomorphology of the estuary. Morphological modelling made it possible to test the sensitivity of the estuary to changes of various scales arising from readjustments to the position of flood defences. The Environment Agency put great emphasis on working with all stakeholders to ensure that the resulting scientific understanding could be used as the basis for making decisions about the future of flood defences in the estuary. This process involved helping stakeholders to understand that their own aspirations for the estuary must be influenced by a greater understanding of what estuary morphology was trying to achieve [27]; that is that the management of the estuary would move more towards a position of ‘working with nature’. The consultation process associated with this recognised that stakeholders needed informing, involving and influencing. Of possibly greater importance was the recognition that the process worked both ways [28]. Outputs from morphological modelling led to the publication of a first strategy in 2000 [29]. This was a fundamental change to strategic planning, and although it is not a statutory document it does provide clear guidance for flood risk managers, industry and nature conservation on what needs to be done, and what the possibilities are for improved management of wildlife resources. This in turn has important implications for key commercial interests: notably the ports because it shows where there are potential opportunities for threefold benefits from realignments of flood banks to create new habitat. These benefits include accommodation space for rising seas, development of mudflats and saltmarshes that provide improved flood defences as well as new wildlife habitat, and a means of offsetting habitat loss elsewhere (through new port development).

THE PORTS INDUSTRY AND ITS RELEVANCE TO THE HUMBER ESTUARY In the past forty years, ports have changed considerably. They bear little resemblance to the labour-intensive operations that serviced a fleet comprising a mixture of bulk carriers, oil tankers and general-purpose cargo vessels. An obvious difference in the business has been the shift towards specialised and efficient cargo handling, which in turn has led to the introduction of much bigger vessels. Today, in addition to general-purpose carriers, ships are confined to the carriage of particular commodities or to the use of specialised handling systems. The most significant change has been the introduction of unitised cargoes packed into the containers that feed modern distribution systems. Some containers arrive unaccompanied and are loaded onto

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lorries (so-called load-on load-off or lo-lo); others arrive on wheels, with or without tractor units (roll-on roll-off or ro-ro). These changes demand efficient handling facilities and rapid turn-around to secure the highest utilisation of expensive equipment that is only meeting its bills when on the move (a big container carrier can cost in excess of $100,000 per day to run). An important consequence of these changes has been the shift in port design. Traditional locked systems involved ships entering the port on a high tide and leaving on a later tide and contained within a restricted body of water whilst being loaded and unloaded. Cargo handling may have taken a number of days or even weeks, whereas in today’s port environment handling time adds so significantly to costs that it has to be kept to an absolute minimum. Today’s ports involve riverside terminals with deepwater dredged pockets that allow extremely rapid turnaround. Thus, historic port capacity is less well suited to many new forms of shipping and cargo handling and new infrastructure has been sought at many locations. It is not only changes in cargoes and cargo handling, but also changes in volumes imported and exported that fuel demand for new port capacity. This is best illustrated by the growth in unitised goods (containers) measures in twenty foot equivalent units (TEU) arising from the original twenty foot containers, but which are now significantly replaced by boxes 40 feet in length. Growth in this sector has been in the order of 5% pa-1 according to a wide variety of analysts [30, 31, 32] (Figure 5), although there are now indications of a slowdown and market instabilities [33]. In the UK, growth of imports has considerably outstripped exports and today the economy has shifted towards financial and service sectors in place of its traditional manufacturing base. As a result, 41% of boxes arrive full and depart empty (2002 data) [34]. Growth in other sectors is lower but in the process has shifted from a large number of small ports to a comparatively small number of bigger ports.

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000

TEU

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1992 1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year

Figure 5. Growth in UK Container throughput 1992 to 2004.

In this changing port environment, the Humber ports have undergone a major evolution. Historically, the majority of port activity was centred upon the locked ports at Goole, Hull and Immingham. Petrochemical production led to the establishment of major jetties and

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 127 facilities at Hull and Immingham. Imports from much richer iron ores from South American deposits also started to replace domestic and northern European sources and again arrived in much bigger volumes to gain the economies of scale that make them viable. But, it was not until the 1990s that the biggest changes started to emerge. At this time domestic coal production was in decline and coal consumption shifted to imported foreign opencast sources. Also, trade in cars from overseas manufacturers also led to major shifts in the nature of trade passing through ports, and especially the port of Immingham. Thus, by the early 1990’s port expansion proposals started to emerge, coincident upon port privatisation and improved confidence in an industry that had been beset with poor labour relations in the 1970s and 1980s. The first significant changes on the Humber came at the port of Hull where new port capacity was proposed at Saltend (the eastern end of Hull docks). This proposal involved the loss of 9 ha of mudflat that at the time was outside the boundary of the Humber Estuary Special Protection Area (SPA). A proposed new riverside terminal at Immingham (Humber International Terminal) and new ro-ro facilities at North Killingholme adjacent to a former oil storage depot followed shortly afterwards. These three developments were significant because they took place in the period between the introduction of the Habitats Directive and its subsequent impact upon site selection for Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) and, therefore, although the Directive was implemented its full implications had not become clear. The Hull and Immingham proposals together led to the loss of some 31 ha of undesignated habitat and full offsetting measures were not secured (some land was allocated for new habitat creation but did not involve the development of new mudflats). It would be difficult to describe the outcome of these developments as sustainable when taking account of natural environment implications, but they were a first step in the transition. Judgements made by the European Court of Justice in the 1990s led to the development of a framework of case law that made previously adopted approaches to port development untenable as an approach for the future. It is against this background that subsequent developments in the Humber Estuary have evolved. These approaches developed in parallel with others where Sustainable Development principles were being introduced and which have also been seminal in shaping the approach that is now adopted across much of England (provided in further detail by Morris and Gibson [9] and Morris, Hill, Moffat & Ramsay [35]).

PROGRESS TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SOLUTIONS The developments at Hull and Immingham tell an important story about working with the Habitats Directive and, more importantly, working through the process it establishes. With the exception of Hull Quay 2005 (originally named Quay 2000), which had been under discussion for some while, the various port development proposals emerged in the late 1990s, shortly after phase 1 of the Humber International Terminal at Immingham had been constructed. These proposals coincided with proposals by English Nature to extend the boundaries of the Humber Estuary SPA and Ramsar Site (in UK law, Ramsar Sites are afforded the same levels of protection as those afforded to Natura 2000). In addition, the possible designation of the Humber as a SAC was proposed in response to the Kilkee

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moderation meeting at which the UK was found to have a deficiency of estuary habitat on the east coast of England [36]. The initial response of Associated British Ports (ABP) was to object to proposed designations. This led to withdrawal of site designation proposals in 2000 following identification of further scientific questions that needed to be resolved. English Nature therefore undertook more than two years research and compilation of a new scientific case [18] before it was in a position to progress the designation. Meanwhile, Associated British Ports (ABP) were keen to proceed with both Hull and Immingham projects. This episode was coincident upon the arrival of a new Environment Manager who immediately recognised the dangers of proceeding without designating the area as an SPA. A decision by the European Court of Justice in relation to a site in France – Basses Corbieres – was fundamental in this respect. The Basses Corbieres decision (ECJ 374/98) [37] established that where a site should have been classified as a SPA but had not been, the effect of development proposals on that area must be considered against the site protection provisions of the Birds Directive. This is a stricter regime than that provided for in the Habitats Directive which allows for socioeconomic reasons of over-riding public interest to be taken into account in the decisionmaking process. The Habitats Directive regime will only apply if and when the site is a classified SPA. As parts of the Humber were already a SPA and there was ample evidence that mudflats around Immingham and Hull were of considerable importance for the key waterfowl populations, the development proposals clearly could not proceed until the SPA designation had been resolved. Thus, an important change in philosophy emerged within ABP. Instead of maintaining concerns about site designation, the company moved to a position of support for the proposed designations and was keen to see them in place as soon as possible (a similar approach was taken by the Port of Felixstowe in relation to Bathside Bay at Harwich). Furthermore, ABP made an important change in its policy towards assessment of impacts and necessary offsetting measures. Instead of following the traditional industrial approach that sought to try to argue down the wildlife impact assessment, ABP recognised the benefits of concentrating on securing agreement on offsetting measures from the onset. This changed approach avoids many of the additional legal and consultancy costs and the potential for a costly and slow Public Inquiry (highlighted in the Barker Review [4] quoting in particular the Dibden Bay port development proposals) followed by the need to create compensatory habitat anyway. There are important commercial benefits to this approach in terms of time savings and an ability to meet customer needs. Of course it does not preclude wider public disquiet about a particular project, but it does minimise the degree to which nature conservation issues need to be challenged at Public Inquiry. The subsequent impact of this approach was seen at the developments at Immingham Outer Harbour and Hull Quay 2005. In both of these cases a legal agreement was drawn up and ABP committed to the development of compensatory habitat, and the statutory and non statutory conservation organisations withdrew their objections to the developments. This resulted in a considerably reduced Public Inquiry for Quay 2005 and no Public Inquiry for Immingham Outer Harbour as the conservation bodies were the only objectors. Such an approach does not come cheaply, but the overall costs still amount to less than 10% of the overall project budget. There is a net gain in habitat area (ratio close to 2:1) but this is because there is uncertainty about the time scale in which the newly created habitat will

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 129 provide for the specific elements of the bird interest affected (in particular Black Tailed Godwits (Limosa limosa). A key to the production of compensatory measures for the Hull and Immingham proposals lies in the information provided by the Environment Agency’s Estuary Shoreline Management Plan and resulting flood risk strategy. Two sites were secured. One was at Welwick in the outer estuary where realignments were not expected to have significant impacts on the hydrodynamic regime but were ideally sited for new habitat creation. The other was at Chowderness where realignment was proposed as a viable option to secure overall flood management options in the middle and upper estuary. Thus although not directly a component of the flood defence strategy, ABPs realignment sites actually make an important contribution to the overall progress of the strategy. Today, the Humber is a very different place to the estuary when the Humber Estuary Management Strategy was launched in 1997. There are now four realignment sites (Figure 6) with more planned. The significance of these realignment sites is reinforced by the biggest project at Alkborough where a site of 400ha has been breached to create around 170 ha of permanent inter-tidal habitat. The remainder of this site is designed to act as an over-spill on surge tides, thus reducing water volumes further upstream and making important savings in the flood defence costs upstream. Funding for the Alkborough project came from a variety of sources including the Regional Development Agency whose contribution was made because the project helped to gain assurance that the defences fronting the key industrial zone between Immingham and Killingholme could be maintained.

Figure 6. Managed realignment sites on the Humber.

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From the ports’ perspective, Alkborough is also important because the company owns land at the site which it contributed to the realignment scheme as a full partner in the project. In addition, ABP also secured an understanding with English Nature that the newly created habitat within the Alkborough scheme would comprise compensation for future developments at the port of Goole if appropriate. This understanding was backed by a legal agreement and indicates an important step change in the relationship between industry and conservation. In addition, ABP developed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with English Nature (now Natural England) which sets out thresholds for light, noise and disturbance for routine operational work. Below these thresholds ABP can carry out work without the need to seek any further approval from EN, but above these thresholds ABP still needs to consult EN formally. This approach resolves much of the confusion which existed about the day to day management of many routine operations.

A FORWARD LOOK: LINKING COMMERCIAL ASPIRATIONS TO NATURE CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT Although there are a number of positive messages to be drawn from the changing experiences on the Humber Estuary, there are also some important pointers to areas of concern and the potential for improved decision-making. In this last section we will explore developing thinking and the possibility of developing a strategic approach to long-term aspirations for key port capacity. In the UK, management of inter-tidal and sub-tidal Natura 2000 is depends upon the development of a package of advice under Regulation 33 of the Nature Conservation (Natural Habitats &c) Regulations 1994 [e.g. 15]. This advice package relates to the interest features of the site, their location and other relevant information such as definitions of favourable condition and key attributes that make up the overall nature conservation interest to be safeguarded and monitored. This, together with the formation of a management group who jointly and severally implement their respective powers to secure favourable condition, provides an important structure for local management decisions. One important link between the Management Scheme and commercial activity is established through a protocol for determination of consents for maintenance dredging that is being developed in England. This protocol places emphasis on the development of a baseline document that describes overall dredging activity within an estuary by all ports. The baseline is also expected to capture information available about the estuary’s geomorphology and the outputs of any relevant modelling exercises (which are available for most estuaries where there are larger ports with development proposals). The baseline document also includes an overall assessment of the impact of dredging against the provisions of the Habitats Directive; the purpose of this is to consider the cumulative effects of dredging activity and therefore to place individual maintenance events into context. A link is made in which monitoring outputs for the SAC (or SPA) are reviewed and considered in relation to the possible impacts of dredging. As a consequence, much greater assurance can be gained by decision-makers who then need to make far fewer investigations into the impacts of individual maintenance events and consequently consent time should be much reduced. This approach is consistent with advice recently given by the

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 131 European Commission to the Port of Hamburg [38] on the integration of maintenance dredging into management plans for Natura 2000. An important caveat arises, however, in so far as this approach also raises questions about the possibility of developing a far more strategic link between port development, flood risk management and nature conservation in line with some of the experiences outlined earlier. Both ports and flood defences are major investments. A new container port may cost in the region of £500m and heavily engineered flood defences may cost in the region of £5m km-1. They therefore require careful and advanced planning, with the broad-scale impacts likely to be identified at a relatively early stage, drawing upon knowledge of potential footprints and previous experience of resulting geomorphological perturbations. As a consequence there is scope for strategic planning of possible losses together with identification of potential offsetting measures. At a strategic level it might therefore be possible to set up a package of measures based upon the following key tests: 1. What are the broad-scale implications of the proposals and their implications for the Natura 2000 interest? 2. Are there mitigating measures that can be built in at an early stage and if so are the residual impacts likely to have an adverse affect on the Natura interest? 3. Are there sound economic or social grounds for the project to proceed in some shape or form and are there alternative means of achieving the desired outcome? Clear links to national policy are required, as highlighted in the recent Barker Review [4]. In which case a decision in favour of the project is potentially likely on imperative reasons of over-riding public interest. 4. What broad-scale compensatory measures are required and can these be accommodated within the estuary concerned? If they can, where would such measures best fit with the need to offset the nature conservation impacts and meet flood risk management objectives? 5. Depending upon the outcomes above, a site might not only be identified, but the habitat creation measures might commence, thereby reducing the risks associated with parallel development of new habitat as it is lost. In theory there would appear to be nothing in the Habitats Directive that would preclude the development of strategic habitat creation to offset the impacts of key infrastructure development. In practice, however, there are a variety of complications that need to be satisfied before any strategic process could be implemented. Strategic development of compensatory measures does not fit with existing legal frameworks for a several reasons. A leading issue is that without a defined project there is no legal framework to link a habitat creation project to future developments. A further complication is that newly created habitat is likely to reach the threshold for Natura designation before it is required, and once designated it cannot be then used as compensation. It is difficult to see how a Member State could avoid designation, at least for bird-related interest, once the threshold was passed and relevant members of the voluntary sector exerted pressure for site designation. The most crucial aspect of strategic habitat creation or “habitat banking” is the need to secure measures that resolve the negative aspects of a particular proposal upon specific interest features (e.g. an internationally important population of a particular waterbird).

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One approach is to follow the North American line of “mitigation banking” but there are many complications with this approach and developing evidence that mitigation banks are highly variable in their quality and in the degree to which they offset particular impacts [39]. The Commission letter to the Port of Hamburg [38] does however raise the intriguing possibility of linking port development plans to Natura Management Plans. It is not impossible to anticipate the development of a legal framework that promotes such a strategic approach for known capacity requirements, tested along similar lines to existing consents but concentrating on a worst case scenario that can be derived from a strong body of past experience. There are some important caveats to such an approach that would need to be secured before what might otherwise be construed as a loosening of the constraints of the Habitats Directive: •

•

•

Such a strategic approach should be confined to those industries that genuinely require a coastal location and can demonstrate through a strong body of evidence that predicted requirements can be expected to materialise in a realistic time-frame of, say, 20 years. This would be consistent with UK Government guidance on development in the coastal zone [40]. Clear separation is made between strategic economic or infrastructure requirements that affect re-creatable habitats and those that would affect a habitat where its recreation as a fully functional entity is uncertain. This would rule out the majority of terrestrial habitats but might extend to the habitats of protected species known to favour ruderal habitats. (Evidence from Europe suggests this might be the case for certain tern (Sterna) species [9]). The broad-scale proposals should be subject to a rigorous consents regime that exerts the same level of scrutiny as imposed on individual projects today.

A POSSIBLE MODEL FOR STRATEGIC HABITAT CREATION If strategic habitat creation is to be considered, it is important to be certain that the model developed conforms to the requirements of the Habitats Directive, especially those issues relating to needs and alternatives cases. In Figure 7 we suggest a possible framework for development of a strategic approach to port and flood risk management. There are likely to be very few scenarios where alternatives do not exist, but a complicating factor is the philosophical question over the degree to which Member States are expected to exert the sort of centrally planned model for industry that consideration of every alternative seems to demand. In a free market economy, there would for example be serious questions asked of the Government that decided that a company that had an existing customer base and business plan should be prevented from progressing and having to relinquish particular business interests to a rival. Thus Governments must have a clear policy framework that clearly explains the strategic line it proposes.


Figure 7. Schematic process for development of strategic compensation for loss of Natura 2000 in relation to flood risk management and port development.

There are a number of avenues for dissemination of this policy framework. In the UK, this would include Local Development Frameworks [41], Regional Spatial Strategies [42] and sectoral policy positions such as its ports policy. A policy that states, in effect, that Government has no policy towards particular developments such as ports [43] is clearly inadequate in this respect. Thus, the first precondition for any strategic approach to habitat

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recreation is clearly established – the policy framework that defines needs and establishes the alternatives at local, regional and national levels. If the policy framework clearly identifies the conditions under which loss of Natura 2000 habitat is recognised, there also needs to be a project, or series of projects against which impacts can be judged. National, regional or local project plans are potentially possible, but the bigger they become, the more complex they also become in terms of evaluating impacts. Thus, for simplicity, a master plan probably ought to centre upon a particular Natura 2000 site (i.e. conforming to the model set out in the DG Environment letter to the Port of Hamburg [38]). This might be achieved by zonation within a Regional Development Strategy but also might be arranged sectorally. The latter makes more sense if the provisions of the Habitats Directive are to be followed properly. This is because there are few commercial developments that really require specific locations and efforts should be made to provide assurance that there are genuine and unavoidable demands upon the Natura interest. In the case of estuarine habitats, there are just a few possibilities for essential development with the main emphasis upon port capacity and flood risk management. A further possibility is power generation and, potentially, desalination. Recent case law [44] has shown that the UK Government has further work to do in relation to applying the Habitats Directive to plans (e.g. flood risk management strategies, local development strategies and regional development strategies). This will be rectified and with these changes the possibility arises for scrutiny of strategic development allocations and of long-term business plans against the Habitats Directive. Such scrutiny should, in theory, allow the development of strategic allocations for new habitat creation, based upon an assessment of the likely impact of the combined programmes. In the case of estuaries, it is possible that certain strategic programmes could be evaluated together, in particular port development and flood risk management. There are some obvious synergies as the majority of offsetting measures are likely to involve realignment of flood defences to create new inter-tidal. The fusion of two interest groups therefore improves potential to deliver projects at improved value for money for both parties. There may be similar synergies in fluvial systems but beyond this it is difficult to identify examples where the question of alternatives does not emerge as a serious issue that should be duly acknowledged.

CONCLUDING REMARKS In this account we have argued that the Habitats Directive does make a significant contribution to Sustainable Development. There is sound evidence to reinforce this message based on the experience of port development and site designation in England between 1994 and 2006. Experiences on the Humber in particular have shown that in certain dynamic environments genuine win-win solutions are possible and that the Habitats Directive need not be a serious impediment to infrastructure improvements. That experience has also shown, however, that the lead-in times to solutions are slow and involve levels of uncertainty that make a positive approach to the Habitats Directive dependent upon potentially un-necessary commercial and ecological risks.

The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 135 Many of the perceived problems associated with the Habitats Directive lie in the need for further shifts in understanding amongst the business community and amongst politicians. We have shown that commercial imperatives can change attitudes and this is an example of the positive benefits of the Directive for wildlife and the delivery of Sustainable Development. Problems will continue, however, where major projects are felt to be politically desirable in the face of quantifiable nature conservation concerns that cannot obviously be offset. It is not possible to predict many of these issues, but clearly infrastructure deemed necessary to meet energy shortfalls holds numerous potential pitfalls. There is a need for an open debate on the acceptability of linking key strategic needs to Natura 2000 management plans. This may already depend upon the way in which the Habitats Directive dovetails with the domestic legislation of individual Member States; in which case it may be a question of examining the known options and shaping provisions accordingly.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS During the development of this paper we have drawn upon advice from a variety of colleagues and informed commentators. Their input has been invaluable in refining the work, but we make no claims that the ideas expressed here conform to their views. We thank in particular, Rob Cooke, David Harrison, James Marsden, Jonathan Price (Natural England) and Duncan Huggett (Environment Agency) for helpful comments on the text. We also thank George Hinton (Natural England) who supplied designated sites statistics. Special thanks are due to Lucy Adams at ABPmer who prepared the maps and figures.

AUTHOR PROFILE Roger Morris is a policy specialist for Natural England (the UK Government’s statutory advisor on nature conservation and landscape issues in England) with particular interests in management of nature conservation assets around and within estuaries. He takes a close interest in issues relating to development of new port capacity and infrastructure and has been involved in the majority of port development proposals since 1998. His past experience includes representing English Nature (the predecessor of Natural England) during the development of the Humber Estuary Shoreline Management Plan, leading the later stages of the development of the Humber Estuary Management Strategy and the development of position statements relating to the ports industry and habitat banking. Peter Barham is Sustainable Development Manager for Associated British Ports. ABP operates 21 ports in the UK, including Hull, Goole and Grimsby and Immingham in the Humber Estuary. Since joining the company in 2001 he has emphasised the need for industry to work closely with Government and regulators to identify and achieve shared environmental objectives which allow Sustainable Development, enhance the environment and comply with the wide range of environment regulation . Prior to joining ABP he worked for the UK Environment Agency leading on the development of the long term flood management strategy for the Humber Estuary, developing and adopting the same principles mentioned earlier.

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The Habitats Directive as a Driver for Sustainable Development in the Coastal Zone 137 [17] EEC. Council Directive 92/43/EEC On the conservation of natural habitats and of wild flora and fauna. Office for Official Publication of the European Communities, Luxemburg. 1992. [18] Allen, J., Boyes, S., Burdon, D., Cutts, N., Hawthorne, E., Hemmingway, K., Jarvis, S., Jennings, K., Mander, L., Murby, P., Proctor, N., Thompson, S., & Waters. R. The Humber Estuary: A comprehensive review of its nature conservation interest. English Nature Research Report 547. 493pp. [19] Department for Transport. Focus on Ports: 2006 Edition. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2006. 96pp. http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_transstats/ documents/downloadable/dft_transstats_611028.pdf [20] Davidson NC, Laffoley D d’A, Doody JP, Way LS, Gordon J, Key R, Drake, CM, Pienkowski MW, Mitchell R & Duff KL. Nature Conservation and Estuaries in Great Britain. Nature Conservancy Council, Peterborough, 1991 (422 pp). [21] Morris, R.K.A. English Nature’s Estuaries Initiative: A Review of its Contribution to Integrated Coastal Zone Management. Ocean and Coastal Management (in press) [22] HEMS Partnership. Humber Estuary Management Strategy: Consultation Document. 1996. 186 pages. [23] HEMS Partnership. Humber Estuary Management Strategy. 1997. 51pages. [24] Environment Agency. The Humber Estuary Action Plan – Our Commitment. Environment Agency 1999. [25] UK Marine SACs Life Project. http://www.english-nature.org.uk/ukmarine/reports/reports.htm [26] MAFF & Welsh Office. Shoreline Management Plans: a guide for coastal defence authorities. MAFF Publications. 1995. (Superseded by: Defra. Shoreline Management Plan Guidance: Volume 1 aims and requirements. Defra, London, 2006. 54pp. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/policy/smpgvol1.pdf [27] Barham, P. Humber Estuary Flood Defences – A Strategic Approach. Proceedings of 32nd MAFF Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, Keele University Wednesday 2 to Friday 4 July 1997. Pages F3-F10. [28] Barham, P., Young, R. & Winn, P. The Consultation Process – Purpose and Practice. Proceedings of 36th DEFRA Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, Keele University Wednesday 20 to Friday 22 June 2001. Pages 02.11- 02.1.10. [29] Environment Agency. Planning for the Rising Tides: The Humber Estuary Shoreline Management Plan. Environment Agency, Leeds, 2000. 32pp. http://www.hull.ac. uk/coastalobs/media/pdf/humberestuarysmp.pdf [30] RSPB, English Nature and MDS Transmodal. Supply and demand in the UK ports industry. RSPB, Sandy. 2002. 81 pages. [31] MDS Transmodal. UK Port Demand Forecasts to 2030. Department for Transport, London. 2006. 217pp. http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_shipping/documents/ page/dft_shipping_611699.pdf [32] Penfold, A. Bathside Bay Container Terminal Proof of Evidence: The need for deepwater container capacity. Ocean Shipping. 2004. http://www.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/bathsidebay/Transcripts.htm [33] Drewry Shipping Consultants. Drewry Annual Container Market Review & Forecast 2006/2007. 251pp.

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Chapter 4

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN OIL PIPELINES INDUSTRY USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS Prasanta Kumar Dey* Aston Business School, Aston University, Birmingham B4 7ET, UK

ABSTRACT Sustainable development is always challenge to oil pipelines industry as any failure in operations may cause catastrophic effect on environment. Researchers and practitioners address the issues of sustainability in pipelines industry by carrying out environmental impact assessment of new projects and constant environmental monitoring during entire life of the pipelines. However, there is little effort to integrate environmental management of oil pipelines with the productivity of the entire system. This study introduces a pipelines project selection framework and inspection and maintenance policy selection framework using analytic hierarchy process to integrate environmental factors and pipelines productivity factors together in order to provide sustainable development. The proposed frameworks have been applied to a newly conceived project and a nineteen years old operating pipeline in the Western part of India to demonstrate the effectiveness of the frameworks.

Keywords: Sustainable development, oil pipeline industry, analytic hierarchy process

*

Email: [email protected]

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I. INTRODUCTION Cross-country oil pipelines are the most energy-efficient, safe, environmentally friendly, and economic way to ship hydrocarbons (gas, crude oil, and finished products) over long distances, either within the geographical boundary of A country or beyond it. A significant portion of many nations’ energy requirements is now transported through pipelines (Dey et al 1996a). The economies of many countries depend on the smooth and uninterrupted operation of these lines, so it is increasingly importance to ensure the safe and failure-free operation of pipelines. While pipelines are one of the safest modes of transporting bulk energy, and have failure rates much lower than the railroads or highway transportation, failures do occur, and sometimes with catastrophic consequences. A number of pipelines have failed in the recent past, with tragic consequences (Dey et al 1996b). In 1993 in Venezuela, 51 people were burnt to death when a gas pipeline failed and the escaping gas ignited. Again in 1994, a 36 inches (914 mm) pipeline in New Jersey failed, resulting in the death of one person and more than 50 injuries. Similar failures also have occurred in the UK, Russia, Canada, Pakistan, and India (Hopkins, 1994). While pipeline failure rarely cause fatalities, disruptions in operation lead to large business losses. Failures can be very expensive and cause considerable damage to the environment (Dey and Gupta, 2000). Traditionally, all pipelines projects undergo strict environmental impact assessment before approval of the competent authority and most pipeline operators ensure that during the design stage, safety provisions are created to provide a theoretical minimum failure rate for the life of the pipeline. Safety provisions are considered when selecting pipes and other fittings. To prevent corrosion, a pipeline is electrically isolated by providing a high resistance external coating materials. As a secondary protective measure, a low-voltage direct current is impressed in the pipe at pre-calculated distance to transfer any corrosion that occurs due to breaks in the coating caused by a heap of buried iron junk, rails, etc. This is called impressed current cathodic protection. The quality of the commodity that is being transported through the line is also ensured, and sometimes corrosion-preventing chemicals (corrosion inhibitors) are mixed with the commodity. To avoid deliberate damage of the pipeline in isolated locations, regular patrolling of the right-of-way from the air as well as on foot is carried out, and all third party activities near the route are monitored. Various techniques are routinely used to monitor the status of a pipeline. Any deterioration in the line may cause a leak or rupture. Modern methodologies can ensure the structural integrity of an operating pipeline without taking it out of service (Jamieson, 1986). Conventional project management practices do not ensure sustainability of oil pipelines as environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out after the most economic option is derived, which doesn’t allow to select most economically feasible environment and social friendly option (Dey and Gupta, 1999). Pipeline route selection with the consideration of technical parameters along with environmental and social factors ensures sustainability of pipeline projects. A failure free operation is another critical consideration for sustainable development. Although integrated approach to pipeline route selection ensures environment friendly facilities, but fail to guarantee zero failure. A risk-based inspection and maintenance with the involvement of the pipelines operators improves sustainability of the

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pipelines by optimising cost and benefits. The present practices are more reactive than proactive (Dey et al 1998, Dey, 2004 and Khan et al. 2006). The main objective of this paper is to develop a framework for sustainable development of oil pipelines industry covering entire service life (project and operations).

II. CURRENT APPROACH TO PROJECT FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS AND INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PRACTICES IN OIL PIPELINES INDUSTRY Figure 1 shows the customary cross-country petroleum pipeline feasibility analysis processes. Rapid industrial growth calls for the study of many potential pipeline projects, which are scrutinized to identify a few feasible projects for detailed analysis. Market and demand analysis determines the pipeline route and supply-demand points. The technical analysis assesses a few alternatives with respect to pipe diameter and the number of intermediate stations. The optimum alternative is selected on the basis of financial evaluation criteria, like pay back period, net present value, and internal rate of return. The environmental and socio-economic impact assessment is then conducted out on a single selected project to identify means to mitigate negative environmental impacts (Dey and Gupta, 2001).

Needs Analysis

Initial Screening

Market and Demand Analysis

Technical Analysis Alternative Projects Analysis Financial and Economic Analysis

Impact Assessment

Figure 1. Customary project evaluation and selection processes.

Project Change Require

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Prasanta Kumar Dey The pipeline planners who follow above the steps encounter the following problems: 1. A long study time frame because studies are completed sequentially. 2. Only one alternative is addressed during impact assessment, which is called upon to justify this alternative generated from financial analysis. 3. Impact assessment findings often demand alteration of the project site (pipeline route) and use of a different technology, necessitating revision of the technical and financial analysis. 4. Although sometimes projects get statutory approval from the regulatory authorities based on impact assessment reports, there are evidences of project abandonment at later stage or delayed because of public protest. 5. Project approval takes time because approving authorities often ask for additional information, necessitating further detailed analysis. 6. Sometimes, the selected projects prove to be not fully effective in the operations stage because of large operating and maintenance costs and lack of expansion opportunities. 7. The likelihood of failure and its impact is very high, as this is not emphasized in design stage.

The above problems can be resolved by incorporating the feasibility analyses and impact assessments into an integrated framework with active involvement of all the stakeholders. The existing inspection and maintenance practices commonly followed by most pipeline operators are formulated mainly on the basis of experience. However, operators are developing an organized maintenance policy based on data analysis and other in-house studies to replace rule-of-thumb based policies. The primary reasons for this are stringent environmental protection laws (US department of transport, 1995), scarce resources, and excessive inspection costs. Existing policies are not sharply focused from the point of view of the greatest damage/defect risk to a pipeline. The basis for selecting pipeline health monitoring and inspection techniques is not very clear to many operators. In many cases, a survey is conducted over an entire pipeline or on a particular segment, when another segment needs its more. Avoidable expenditures are thus incurred. A strong reason exists, therefore, to derive a technique that will help pipeline operators select the right type of inspection/monitoring technique for segments that need it. A more clearly focused inspection and maintenance policy that has a low investment-to-benefit ratio should be formulated. This would ensure sustainable development.

III. METHODOLOGY This study develops an integrated approach to project feasibility analysis (pipeline route selection) with simultaneous consideration of technical, environmental and social factors and a risk-based inspection and maintenance method with the involvement of the concerned stakeholders using analytic hierarchy process.


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Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) developed by Saaty (1980) provides a flexible and easily understood way of analyzing complicated problems. It is a multiple criteria decision making technique that allows subjective as well as objective factors to be considered in a decision making process. AHP allows the active participation of stakeholders and gives managers a rational basis on which to make decisions (Saaty, 1983). AHP is based on the following three principles: decomposition, comparative judgement, and synthesis of priorities. AHP is a theory of measurement for dealing with quantifiable and intangible criteria that has been applied to numerous areas, such as decision theory and conflict resolution (Vargas, 1990). Oil pipeline route selection and inspection and maintenance policy selection are usually a team effort, and AHP is one available method for forming a systematic framework for group interaction and group decision-making (Saaty, 1982). Dyer and Forman (1992) describe the advantages of AHP in a group setting as follows: 1) both tangibles and intangibles, individual values and shared values can be included in an AHP-based group decision process, 2) the discussion in a group can be focused on objectives rather than alternatives, 3) the discussion can be structured so that every factor relevant to the discussion is considered in turn, and 4) in a structured analysis, the discussion continues until all relevant information from each individual member in a group has been considered and a consensus choice of the decision alternative is achieved. Further detailed discussion for conducting AHP-based group decision making sessions are given by Saaty (1982) and Golden et al. (1989); these include: suggestions for assembling the group; constructing the hierarchy; getting the group to minimize inequalities of power, concealed or distorted preferences; and how to implement any results. Problems using AHP in group decision making are discussed further by Islie et al. (1991). The researchers have applied AHP in various decision making problems across the industries including environmental impact assessment (Ramanathan and Geetha, 1998, Calvin and Dey, 2002), risk analysis (Dey 2004) and project selection (Mian and Christine, 1999; Partovi et al 1990; Shpak and Zaporojan, 1996 and Chu et al 2002). However, according to the authors knowledge there is no application of AHP for sustainable development in oil pipeline industry. The reminder of the article demonstrates pipeline route selection framework and riskbased inspection and maintenance framework using AHP.

IV. PIPELINE ROUTE SELECTION USING AHP The project under study is a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in western India. Its length is 1,300 kilometers plus a 123-kilometer branch line. The pipeline is designed carry 5 million metric tons per annum (MMTPA) of throughput. The project includes three pump stations, one pumping/delivery station, two scraper stations, four delivery stations, and two terminal stations. The project cost was estimated as 600 million US $. Potential projects are first identified through both top-down and bottom-up approaches that involve different levels of executives. They consider the supply and demand of petroleum

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products and crude, the organization’s strategic plans, and productivity improvement. Brainstorming and/or the Delphi technique are employed to screening the feasible projects. Next, a project analysis team is formed. A project analysis team consists of representatives of a design (civil, electrical, mechanical, and telecommunication) group, a planning group, an implementation group, an operations group, and a finance group. They are selected based on their experience and past performance. They form the feasibility study’s core working group. They identify the project stakeholders, determine their concerns, and involve them in the analysis. The project analysis team establishes environmental and social impact assessment requirements, based in part on the results of interaction with environmental regulators and project-affected people. Project stakeholders are active during the identification of alternatives and project selection criteria. Stakeholders also take part in decision-making, including the development of comparison matrices. A feasibility report, thus results, is used by the owner’s management to decide whether a recommended project has potential for implementation and organization’s growth. The feasibility report is submitted to Ministry of Environment and Forest for environmental clearance. The ministry examines the project with respect to sustainable development and use of clean technology. Considering environmental requirements at this early stage permits quick approval from the ministry. A quick response can be made to the ministry’s queries since an environmental analysis is complete and available. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas is the ultimate authority for approving the project in principle and allocating funds for implementation. Figure 2 shows the model for feasibility analysis of a cross-country petroleum pipeline used for the pipeline project under study. The technical analysis (TA), the environmental impact assessment (EIA) and the socio-economic impact assessment (SEIA) is conducted concurrently. These studies solve site selection (pipeline route) problems, as well as a few technological considerations. The least cost option is then identified through a financial and economic analysis of a few feasible alternative projects. For the project under study, the decision-makers were petroleum executives having more than 15 years of working experience. They established a common consensus for the AHP hierarchy through group decision-making. Disagreements were resolved by reasoning and collecting more information. Their hierarchy contained the details necessary to project selection. It gave insight into the whole process and a basis for selection to the approving authority. A joint meeting (decision-makers and approving authority) could further facilitate the approval process. The sensitivity utility of AHP provided decision-makers with an opportunity to understand the implications of their decision. The following steps were undertaken for selecting an optimal project: • • • •

Identification of alternative pipeline routes and creation of a data base for each route using a geographical information system (GIS) (Montemurro and Barnett, 1998); Identification of factors and sub-factors needed to select an optimal project; Creation of the project selection model in an AHP framework, taking into account TA, EIA and SEIA; Analyzing each factor and sub-factor by comparing them in pairs and analyzing each alternative using available data with respect to each sub-factor; and

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Synthesizing the results across the hierarchy to identify the optimal project. Market Analysis

Preliminary Design

Environmental Impact Assessment

Technical Analysis

Social Impact Assessment

Survey Financial Analysis

Economic Analysis

Project Selection

Feasibility Report

Project Approval

Statutory Approval

Figure 2. Integrated Project Analysis Model.

The following factors were considered for the analysis and the factors are described in the sections that follow.

Technical Factors The technical factors important to selection of pipeline route include length, operability, maintainability, approachability, and constructability.

Pipeline Length Pipeline length governs the capacity requirement of almost all equipment for entire pipeline project, as pipeline head loss is directly proportional to the length of the pipeline. Hence, the shorter the length of a pipeline lesser is the capital cost of the project and vice versa. Operability The hydraulic gradient is a major factor in selecting prime mover power for pipeline operations as negative hydraulic gradient demands for higher prime mover power. Similarly, more route diversion causes more friction loss, resulting in higher prime mover power for the same throughput. These cause more capital investment. A pipeline is designed for specific

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throughput in line with demand; a pipeline may need to be augmented in the future to cope with the demand for maximizing profit. Therefore, expansion/ augmentation capability is one attribute of properly designed pipeline. In addition to improving the existing prime mover capacity, a pipeline can also be augmented by installing more pumping stations along the route and laying loop lines/parallel lines.

Maintainability Though pipelines are designed with adequate safety factors, they are subjected to failure due to various reasons. Pipeline corrosion, pilferage and third party activities are the factors that may create quantum throughput loss along with chances of disaster. Therefore, these factors should be carefully considered during the feasibility study. In a decision model, these factors may influence the selection of a specific route. One of the major causes of pipeline failure is corrosion (Annual report of CONCAWE, 1994), an electro-chemical process that changes metal back to ore. Corrosion generally takes place when there is a difference of potential between two areas having a path for the flow of current. Due to this flow, one of the areas loses metal. External interference is another leading cause of pipeline failure (Pipes and pipelines international, 1993). It can be malicious (sabotage or pilferage) or be caused by other agencies sharing the same utility corridor. The latter is known as third-party activity. In both cases, a pipeline can be damaged severely. External interference with malicious intent is more common in socio-economically-backward areas, while in regions with more industrial activity, third-party damage is common. Poor construction, combined with inadequate inspections and low quality materials, also contributes to pipeline failure. Other reasons include human and operational error and equipment malfunctions (US department of transportation, 1995). Computerized control systems considerably reduce the chance of failure from these factors. All activities, industrial or otherwise, are prone to natural calamities, but pipelines are especially vulnerable. A pipeline passes through all types of terrain, including geologically sensitive areas. Earthquakes, landslides, floods, and other natural disasters are common reasons for pipeline failures. Approachability Although a cross-country petroleum pipeline is buried underground, the right of way should allow uninterrupted construction activities as well as operation, inspection, and maintenance. The ideal pipeline route should be along a railway track or a major highway. This is not always possible due to the long length of pipelines, which may require river crossings and travelling through forests, deserts, etc. Therefore, pipeline route with better approachability gets an edge over other routes. Constructability Laying pipeline across states/province or national boundaries requires permission from statutory Government authorities. Stringent safety and environmental stipulations sometimes are hindrances to project activities. Mobilization is a major construction activity. One factor in pipeline routing is the provision for effective mobilization by the contractor. Distance to


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market, the availability of power and water, and the number of skilled and unskilled laborers are typical requirements for starting effective construction activities. Pipeline construction methods vary greatly with terrain conditions. For example, laying pipeline across a river requires horizontal direction drilling (HDD), while laying across rocky area requires rock trenching techniques. Therefore, location characteristics are a major cost component of pipeline construction. Inappropriate route selection can cause major time and cost overruns.

Environmental factors Pipelines handle hazardous petroleum products. Although pipelines are designed with safety features, failure is not uncommon. Sometimes failures result in a release of large quantities of petroleum products into the environment. If this should happen, a pipeline located in a remote area is less of a safety concern. The following factors are to be considered to assess environmental impact • • • • •

effect on environment during failure of pipelines effect on environment during failure of pipeline stations effect on environment during normal pipelines operations effect on environment during normal station operations effect on environment during pipeline construction

The above factors considerably affect the selection pipeline route.

Socio-economic Factors Planning Stage At this stage, pipeline route is finalized. Owner requires acquiring land for pipe laying across various terrains. Acquisition of agricultural land for industrial purposes involves several issues. Some of the important ones are payment of compensation for the land, and provision of employment, alternative accommodation and other rehabilitation measures to the PAP. Construction Stage The socio-economic issues, which need to be addressed during the construction stage of a pipeline project, are mainly the effect of employment generation and a new construction activity leading to an additional burden on local infrastructure facilities. These are only shortterm impacts lasting during the construction phase of the project. Effect of Employment Generation During the construction phase, the major positive socio-economic impact will be in the sphere of generation of temporary employment of very substantial numbers. This additional employment generation may lead to an influx of people into the impact area.

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Effect of Construction Activity Construction activity involves movement of heavy vehicles, leading to disruption of other agriculture activities. Pipeline construction sometimes leads to local transport disruption also. Operation Stage The operational stage of the project covers the entire life span of the pipelines. Hence, the impacts of the operational phase extend over a long period time. However, pipeline projects seldom generate employment opportunity in this stage and provide fewer burdens to existing infrastructure as the pipelines remain buried under the earth. However, agricultural activities remain restricted on ROW through out the life span of the pipelines.

Project Selection Model The figure 3 shows the project evaluation and selection model in AHP framework. Level I is the goal - selecting the best cross-country petroleum pipeline project. Levels II and III are the factors and sub-factors considered for selection. Level IV is the alternative projects, various feasible pipeline routes. The table 1 shows the database used for each alternative route for the project under study. These data along with the experience of pipeline operators were utilized to apply the AHP model to select the best pipeline project. The data were analyzed by using Expert Choice software package. Table 1. Pipelines Database Description Throughput (MMTPA*) Length (Km) No. of Stations ** Terrain detail (Km) a) Normal Terrain b) Slushy Terrain c) Rocky Terrain d) Forest Terrain e) River Crossing f) Populated area g) Coal belt area Soil conditions

Third Party activity

Chances of Pilferage

Route I 3 780 3

Route II 3 1,000 3

Route III 3 750 3

Route IV 3 800 3

430 2 ----3 330 15 Less corrosive soil

785 5 1 5 4 200 --Less corrosive soil

570 45 3 7 5 120 --Corrosive soil for slushy terrain

More because of coal belt and populated area Higher because of populated area

More because of populated area Higher because of populated area

More because of populated area

770 15 2 2 1 10 --Less corrosive soil ---

Higher because of populated area

---

* MMTPA = million metric tons per annum. ** 1 – originating pumping station, 1 – intermediate pump station, 1 – Terminal delivery station.

Technical Analysis

Length

Route characteristics

Operability

Augmentation Possibility

Maintainability

Approachability Constructability

Expansion capability Corrosion Pilferage

Route 1

Third party activities Effect during failure in pipelines Selecting the est cross-country etroleum pipeline project


Effect during failure in stations

Route 2

Effect during normal operations of pipelines Effect during normal operations of stations Effect during construction

Route 3 Compensation Employment & rehabilitation

Socio-economic Assessment

Effect during planning Employment Effect during construction

Effect of construction activities

Effect during Operations

Burden on existing infrastructure Employment

Figure 3. AHP model for project evaluation and selection.

Route 4

Table 2. Project Selection Data Analysis

Factors (i)

Weights (ii)

Sub-factors (iii)

Weights (iv)

Technical Analysis

0.45

Length Operability

0.31 0.20


0.25

Sub-factors (v)

Route characteristics Augmentation possibility Expansion capability Corrosion Pilferage Third party activities

Route 1 (weights) (viii)

Route 2 (weights) (ix)

Route 3 (weights) (x)

Route 4 (weights) (xi)

0.21

Normalize weights of sub-factors (vii) 0.1400 0.0190

0.27 0.2

0.1 0.22

0.37 0.3

0.26 0.28

0.44

0.0400

0.25

0.36

0.12

0.27

0.35

0.03100

0.26

0.37

0.08

0.29

0.6 0.25 0.15

0.0650 0.0270 0.0160

0.23 0.21 0.21

0.3 0.24 0.28

0.15 0.25 0.25

0.32 0.3 0.26

Weights (vi)

Maintainability

0.24

Approachability Constructability During failure of pipelines During failure of stations During normal pipelines operations During normal station operations During pipeline construction

0.1 0.15 0.41

0.0450 0.0675 0.1020

0.23 0.21 0.23

0.33 0.28 0.3

0.13 0.17 0.15

0.31 0.34 0.32

0.33

0.0820

0.21

0.28

0.25

0.26

0.07

0.0175

0.22

0.32

0.18

0.28

0.08

0.0200

0.18

0.32

0.15

0.35

0.11

0.0270

0.20

0.28

0.22

0.3

Table 2. Continued

Factors (i)

Weights (ii)

Socio-economic 0.30 Impact Assessment

Overall weights Ranking

Route 1 (weights) (viii)

Route 2 (weights) (ix)

Route 3 (weights) (x)

Route 4 (weights) (xi)

0.7 0.3

Normalize weights of sub-factors (vii) 0.0900 0.0387

0.21 0.14

0.16 0.24

0.33 0.28

0.3 0.34

0.5 0.5

0.0540 0.0540

0.25 0.12

0.25 0.18

0.15 0.27

0.35 0.43

0.2 0.8

0.0126 0.0500

0.25 0.17

0.25 0.18

0.25 0.3

0.25 0.35

0.218

0.241

0.232

0.309

IV

II

III

I

Sub-factors (iii)

Weights (iv)

Sub-factors (v)

Weights (vi)

Effect during planning

0.43

Effect during construction

0.36

Effect during operations

0.21

Compensation Employment & rehabilitation Employment Effect of construction activities Employment Burden on existing infrastructure

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Prasanta Kumar Dey Table 3. Life Cycle Cost Estimate for Pipelines (millions of US$)

SN 1. 2.

3.

Description Capital cost Operating cost: First 5 years Second 5 years Third 5 years Fourth 5 years Net Present Value (NPV) MARR = 10% (assumed)

Shortest Route 37.7

Optimal Route 39.5

1.1 each year* 1.5 each year* + 2.1** 2 each year* + 6** 2 each year*

0.75 each year* 0.75 each year* 1 each year* + 1.1*** 1 each year*

1.70#

5.05#

* Normal operation and maintenance cost. ** Major inspection and maintenance cost in subsequent five years that includes additional patrolling, special arrangement for failure, a water logged area, water pollution control and special coating/ CP Surveillance, intelligent pigging cost, including cost for loss of production for not being able to augment the pipeline. *** Additional capital cost for augmentation. # For deriving NPV, positive cash flow has been determined with the following assumptions: 15% return on capital for first and last 5 years 20% return on capital for second and third 5 years US $1 million cost to be incurred for abandoning the project

Results and Findings The table 2 shows the final analysis results and selection. The analysis of the data indicates that alternative 4 is the best pipeline route for the project under study, although it is not the shortest route. Alternative 4 outranks the other alternatives with respect to its operability, maintainability, environment friendliness, and impact on society.

Validation of the Model The table 3 shows the life cycle cost estimate of the project with the shortest route and the with route alternative 4, the optimal route. The table 4 and 5 show capital and operating costs respectively. The present value (PV) of the project with shortest route is much less than the selected project using AHP. Therefore, the life cycle costing (LCC) model also favors alternative 4. Collecting the information for LCC, however, is time consuming and expensive. In addition, an estimate of LCC is generally based on many assumptions. On the other hand, the decision support system (DSS) using AHP provides a model for project selection that relies on the experience of project staff as well as concerned stakeholders. It also considers the project life cycle when selecting the project.


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Table 4. Capital Cost of Pipelines Construction ( figures in millions US$) Item Description Pipes Survey Coating Laying Cathodic protection Building Pumping units Telecommunication Others Total

Optimal Route (800 km) 3.25 1 2 15 1.25 2.25 5.75 8 1 39.5

Shortest Route (750 km) 3 0.9 1.8 14 1 2.25 5.75 8 1 37.7

Financial Analysis The financial analysis was then conducted, considering only a few alternative pipeline diameters. The least cost option was selected. Table 5. Operating Cost (millions US $)

Item Description Energy Routine inspection Overhead Purchase of equipment spares and other sundry items Additional inspection Cost of failure Total Cost of augmentation

Optimum Route 0-5 5-10 years years 0.20 0.20 0.05 0.05 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

10-15 years 0.25 0.15 0.30 0.30

15-20 years 0.25 0.15 0.30 0.30

0.75 -

1 1.1

1

0.75 -

Shortest Route 0-5 5-10 years years 0.05 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.40

10-15 years 0.25 0.15 0.30 0.30

15-20 years 0.25 0.15 0.30 0.30

0.25 1.1 -

0.40 0.60 2.0 -

0.40 0.60 2.0 -

0.30 0.20 1.5 -

V. RISK-BASED INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE MODEL FOR OIL PIPELINES USING AHP The proposed framework has the following steps: Step 1.

Cross-country petroleum pipeline passes through various terrain and requires originating and a few intermediates pumping stations for transporting petroleum products or crude oil. Therefore, the entire pipeline is classified into a few

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Prasanta Kumar Dey stretches (preferably in line with its natural stretch i.e. pipeline sections in between two stations). Step 2. All information related to the pipeline including the terrain detail under study is prepared and documented section wise. Step 3. Step 3 is the identification of the risk factors that can cause failures. Generally, pipelines fail because of one of these reasons: • corrosion; • external interference; • construction and materials defects; • acts of God; or • human and operational error. Step 4. The next step of this methodology is the formation of a risk structure model in the AHP framework. Based on the identified risk factors, a hierarchical risk structure is formed (see figure 1). In the context of our study, the goal is to determine the relative the likelihood of pipeline failures. Level II is criteria (risk factors), level III is sub-factors, and level IV is alternatives (the pipeline stretches). Figure 5 shows the AHP model for analyzing risk from a failure perspective. Step 5. This is a comparison by pairs of risk factors and sub-factors to determine the likelihood of pipeline failure due to each factors and sub-factors. Step 6. Step 6 is a pair wise comparison of alternative pipeline stretches, with respect to each risk factor, to determine the likelihood of failure for each pipeline stretch due to each factor. Step 7. This step includes synthesizing the results across the hierarchy to determine the likelihood of failure of a pipeline stretch and relative comparison with other stretches from failure perspectives. Step 8. In this step, you determine specific inspection/maintenance requirements for specific segments, to mitigate risk. Step 9. Here, you determine the expected failure cost of each line by a Monte Carlo simulation. Step 10. The last step is to establish a cost-benefit analysis to justify the proposed investment, to suggest design, construction and operation improvement of future pipelines and to formulate a cost-effective insurance plan for pipeline.

The above steps have been illustrated by a case study application. A crude oil pipeline (length 1500 km) in the western part of India was studied. The throughput of the pipeline is 9 million metric ton per annum (MMTPA) with augmentation capability of 12 MMTPA, having three intermediate booster stations and a offshore terminal. This pipeline is 19 years old and history of corrosion failure. The poor condition of the coating, as revealed during various surveys and an unreliable power supply to cathodic protection stations are the reasons for this. The line passes through long stretches of socio-economically backward areas and is vulnerable to pilferage and sabotage. In some regions, the right-of-way is shared with other agencies, so the chance of external interference is high. Failure data revealed numerous precommissioning failures, raising doubts about the quality of construction.

Determining the probability of failure of pipeline stretches

Goal

Factors Corrosion

Sub-factors

Alternatives

External interference

Construction and materials defect

Acts of God

Others

•External corrosion

•Third party activities

•Construction defect

•Human error

•Internal corrosion

•Pilferage

•Poor materials

•Operational error

Pipeline stretch 1

Pipeline stretch 2

Pipeline stretch 3

Figure 4. Risk structure to determine failure probability of various pipelines stretches.

Pipeline stretch 4

Pipeline stretch 5

Table 6. Database of pipeline stretches (figures in km) Descriptions Length Terrain detail: Normal Slushy Rocky (hilly) River & canal crossings Populated Offshore Coal belt Forest Desert Soil condition 3rd party activities Chances of pilferage Construction complexity Operational complexity

Pipeline stretches 1 260





170 36

95

35

169

7

115 4 50

2 88

20 6 35 18

25 30 corrosive Higher due to populated area

corrosive More due to coal belt Higher due to populated area

Less corrosive

Less corrosive

More due to rocky and forest

Higher due to populated area More due to river crossing

Less corrosive

More due to offshore piping More due to offshore terminal


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The risk analysis model for the pipeline is formulated by applying the methodology described above. The entire pipeline was classified into five stretches. The risk structure and pair wise comparisons were established through a workshop of the executives who operate various pipelines. About 30 executives participated. They have more than 15 years of experience in pipeline operations. Before formulating the model, they were given full knowledge of pipeline conditions through the database of various pipeline stretches (Table 6). A decision-maker can express a preference between each pair as equal, moderate, strong, very strong, and extremely preferable (important). These judgements can be translated into numerical values on a scale of 1 to 9 (Saaty, 1980). Elements at each level of hierarchy are compared with each other in pairs, with their respective “parents” at the next higher level. With the hierarchy used here, matrices of judgements are formed. A brainstorming session was held to compare the risk factors. The pipeline executives established a common consensus for the AHP hierarchy, pair wise comparison in factors, sub-factors and alternative levels through group decision making. Disagreements were resolved by reasoning and collecting more information. Their hierarchy contained the detail necessary for risk analysis. The final outcomes of each of the pipeline stretch against the risk factors are summarized in table 7. Both local probability and global probability for each of the five stretches are summed up to derive the probability of a pipeline stretch failure and its position with respect to other stretches. The results of the analysis (table 7) reveal that the chances of pipeline failure due to corrosion and external interference are greater than other factors. The following additional observations were made from the risk analysis study: The pipeline stretches 1 and 2 are vulnerable from external corrosion due to slushy terrain, whereas pipeline stretches 4 and 5 are vulnerable to internal corrosion due to long submerged pipe sections. Table 7. Likelihood of failure of various pipeline stretches Factors

Likeli- Sub-factors hood Corrosion 0.40 External Internal External 0.29 3rd party activities Interference Malicious Construction & 0.14 Construction mat. defect defects Poor mats. Acts of God 0.05

Likelihood 0.221 0.181 0.186 0.100 0.072

PLS1

PLS2

PLS3

PLS4

PLS5

0.108 0.038 0.030 0.033 0.012

0.064 0.022 0.078 0.039 0.007

0.007 0.020 0.011 0.005 0.028

0.011 0.042 0.061 0.018 0.007

0.031 0.060 0.006 0.005 0.018

0.072 0.05

0.006 0.006

0.007 0.001

0.027 0.014

0.016 0.006

0.017 0.020

Human error 0.048 Operational error 0.072 Likelihood of failure of various pipeline stretches Ranking

0.001 0.001 0.236 2

0.005 0.003 0.227 3

0.003 0.009 0.123 5

0.008 0.003 0.172 4

0.030 0.056 0.242 1

Others

0.12

PLS – Pipeline stretch.

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Prasanta Kumar Dey

External interference due to the third party activities are major problem in pipeline stretch 2 because of coal mining activities, whereas in stretch 4, it is due to major river crossings and canal crossing. External interference due to malicious reasons are prevailing in stretches 1 and 2 because it passes through a long and highly populated industrial areas. The pipeline stretch 3 is passing through mostly rocky terrain, exposing the pipe to various types of failure due to construction and poor materials. As this stretch is vulnerable to subsidence problem, the likelihood of pipeline failure from acts of God is quite high along with high chance of failure due to construction defect and poor materials. The stretch 5, i.e. the offshore pipeline is very sensitive to operational and human errors as well as failure due to various natural calamities. All pipeline stretches are ranked with respect to their failure chances, the pipeline stretch 5 comes first, pipeline stretch 1 comes second and pipeline stretch 2, 4, and 3 come third, forth and fifth respectively.

Selection of Inspection and Maintenance Strategy The output of the above analysis helps in deciding specific inspection and maintenance programs for each pipeline stretch. Instrument pig survey has been suggested for pipeline stretches 4 and 5 to detect internal corrosion. A survey technique chosen to reveal areas effected by external corrosion. One technique is a current attenuation survey or pearson survey (these surveys detect breaks in pipeline coating, i.e. areas where the pipeline is exposed to soil). Survey techniques that can identify both internal and external corrosion are not needed and are not cost effective. Pipeline stretches 1, 2, and 3 are prone to external interference (pilferage and sabotage), so they require frequent patrolling. Stretch 2 and 4 are susceptible to third party damage. Therefore, more publicity about the route among agencies working near it could be a solution. Cooperation with these agencies needs to be improved. However, a few contingency plans for handling the situations of failure incidents are to be kept ready for the above two stretches. Pipeline stretches 3 and 5 are vulnerable from normal and abnormal natural calamities. Although various measures were taken in designing and constructing the pipelines in both the stretches for minimizing failure, a few contingency plans are also to be formulated in line with the anticipated incidents. Table 8 indicates the inspection and maintenance programs for pipeline under study visà-vis cost for each program. Table 9 indicates the conventional inspection and maintenance programs vis-à-vis cost in absence of the proposed risk-based model. This establishes the advantage of using the risk-based model in designing inspection and maintenance of crosscountry petroleum pipeline. The inspection and maintenance cost has two components – fixed cost and variable cost. The variable cost depends on the length of pipeline. However, the fixed cost depends on design and consulting charge and apportionment of the overhead cost for the inspection tools. The fixed cost for specific inspection is very high compared to the variable cost. Therefore, the inspection cost for all most all pipeline section is approximated as same. The following calculations show the computation for inspection and maintenance of pipelines:


159

Table 8. Inspection and maintenance cost* (figures are in Rupees in million) with the application of risk based inspection model US$ 1 = Rupees 47 Inspection and maintenance strategy Instrument pig survey Cathodic protection survey Contingency plans More patrolling

Problems

PLS1

PLS2

Internal corrosion External corrosion

4

4

3rd party activities Malicious

2

1 2

Contingency plans Improved instrumentation Pipe coating

Acts of God

External corrosion

Construction defect and poor pipe materials Total cost (Rupees 61 million for five years)

PLS3

PLS4

PLS5

25

5

1 2 1

3

1 5

2

Pipe replacement

3

9

9

4

28

11

* The Cost figures are estimated from the budgetary offers of the vendors.

Table 9. Inspection and maintenance cost* (figures are in Rupees in million) without use of risk based inspection model US$ 1 = Rupees 47 Inspection and maintenance strategy Instrument pig survey Cathodic protection survey Contingency plans More patrolling

Problems

PLS1

PLS2

PLS3

PLS4

PLS5

Internal corrosion External corrosion

25 4

25 4

25 4

25 4

5 1

3rd party activities Malicious

1 2

1 2

1 2

1 2

1

Contingency plans Improved instrumentation Pipe coating

Acts of God

1

1

1

1

1 5

External corrosion

3

2

33

13

Construction defect and poor pipe materials Total cost (Rupees 153 million for 5 years)

3

Pipe replacement

36

35

* The Cost figures are estimated from the budgetary offers of the vendors.

36

160

Prasanta Kumar Dey

Instrument Pig Survey Consulting charge (fixed cost) =5 Design (fixed cost) =7 Overhead charge for tools (fixed cost) = 10 Survey (variable cost) =3 Total =25 (Rupees in million) Cathodic Protection Survey Consulting charge (fixed cost) = 0.5 Design (fixed cost) = 1.0 Overhead charge for tools (fixed cost)= 2.0 Survey (variable cost) = 0.5 Total =4 (Rupees in million) Pipe Coating for Stretch 1 Coating materials and application Overhead Total

= 2.5 = 0.5 = 3.0 (Rupees in million)

Pipe Replacement in Stretch 3 Pipe materials Pipe laying Overhead Total

= 2.0 = 0.4 = 0.6 = 3.0 (Rupees in million)

Selection of a particular inspection technique depends on the owner’s experience. However, this approach will give a rational basis to the owner when selecting the most appropriate survey technique as well as the pipeline stretch where the survey is most needed. Table. 10 The Cost of a pipeline Failure Result

Cost (in million Rupees)

Loss of production

10

Loss of commodity

5

Loss of life and property

10

Loss of image

30

Environmental damage

50

Total

105

* The costs are estimated by simulating various situations of pipeline failure in Indian context. US$ 1 = Rupees 47.


161

Expected Failure Cost Generally, a pipeline failure involves various costs that are difficult to compute. Each cost component is unique to specific failure and depends upon factors such as the magnitude, area, and time of the failure, where it happens, and others. A broad classification involving the factors shown in table 10 is possible. The amounts shown in each of these categories are the estimated maximum failure costs. These factors depend on various sub-factors and parameters. For the purpose of this article, a typical pipeline was considered. The cost encountered in this case (maximum) was estimated for India. An analysis of 20 years of failure expenditure data for the pipeline was conducted, and suitable escalation was applied wherever necessary, on the basis of published literature and increases in the cost of various commodities. The failure are classified (on the basis of cost incurred) into four categories: small failures: up to 25 million Rupees; medium failures: between 25 and 40 million Rupees; large failures: between 40 and 70 million Rupees; and very large failures: up to 105 million Rupees. The probability of failure in each of these four categories is taken into consideration, along with the cost of failure. The severity of failure of various pipeline stretches was estimated in brainstorming session by the executives. The outcomes are tabulated along with the likelihood of occurrences of various risk factors (previously determined) as shown in table 11. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed using the PC-based software Micro-Manager. The expected cost of failure of each stretch has been shown in table 11. Skilled personnel are needed to compute costs against each of the factors shown in table 10. The cost of environmental damage varies from place to place, so readers are cautioned to use their own experience and expertise when estimating the cost of a pipeline failure. Table 9 shows the conventional inspection and maintenance cost without using risk-based model. Our proposed method has the potential to reduce costs and is thus preferred over conventional method.

Pipeline Insurance Plan This study establishes a cost-effective insurance plan for the pipeline under study. The basis of the insurance premium depends on likelihood of its failure, expected failure cost in a given period, risk perception of the management/organization and inspection/maintenance programs undertaken. In this case study, the maximum amount of insurance premium for the pipeline under study would be the expected failure cost per year i.e. Rupees 66 million without any inspection and maintenance as indicated in table 11. If the pipeline operators undertake the inspection and maintenance program in line with as indicated in table 5, the likelihood and severity both decreases considerably. The expected cost of failure would reduce to Rupees13 million as shown in table 12. Hence, the annual insurance premium would lie between Rupees 66 and 13 million in line with management risk perception.

162

Prasanta Kumar Dey Table 11. Severity of failure of various pipeline stretches

Risk factors

PLS1 PLS2 PLS3 Likeli- Severity Likeli- Severity Likelihood * hood * hood

PLS4 Severity Likeli* hood

PLS5 Severity Likeli* hood

Severity *

External Internal 3rd party activities Malicious Constn. defects Poor mats.

0.108 40 0.038 25 0.030 105

0.064 25 0.022 25 0.078 105

0.007 0.020 0.011

40 40 105

0.011 0.042 0.061

40 40 105

0.031 0.060 0.006

105 105 105

0.033 25 0.012 25

0.039 25 0.007 25

0.005 0.028

40 40

0.018 0.007

40 40

0.005 0.018

105 105

0.006 25 0.006 105 0.001 25

0.007 25 0.001 105 0.005 25

0.027 0.014 0.003

40 105 40

0.016 0.006 0.008

40 105 40

0.017 0.020 0.030

105 105 105

0.056

105

0.758

0

Human error Operational 0.001 25 0.003 25 0.009 40 0.003 40 error 0.773 0 0.877 0 0.828 0 Likelihood 0.764 0 of no failure Expected 10.35 12.04 6.56 11.28 failure cost Total expected cost of pipeline failure = Rupees 66 million per year

25.44

* Severity figures are in Rupees in million; PLS – Pipeline stretch US$ 1 = Rupees 47 Assumptions: • The pipeline failure in each stretch is an independent event. • With one failure in specific pipeline stretch and subsequent maintenance, the pipeline stretch will be vulnerable for failure in the subsequent years with equal likelihood. • Each risk factor causes failure of pipeline system upon occurrence, the degree of which is measured by small, medium, large and very large failures. Accordingly, cost is incurred for its rectification. As for example, external corrosion will cause medium to large failure. In order to rectify the failure, 40 million Rupees is required to be spent.

VI. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Evaluation of pipeline projects is presently conducted within a fragmented framework with many studies occurring prior to impact assessment. Because of stronger environmental laws and regulations, impact assessment quite often either suggests substantial changes in the project or abandonment of the project on environmental grounds. Such findings can result in substantial revisions to the project proposal, including new site studies; use of alternate technologies; and alternate implementation methodologies. This not only increases project feasibility study time considerably but also increases the cost and effort of the project’s proponent.


163

Table 12. Computation of expected failure cost of pipeline in the event of proposed inspection and maintenance program Risk factors

PLS1 Likelihood 0.118

PLS2 Severity Likeli* hood 25 0.114



Likelihood of failure Likelihood 0.882 0 0.887 0 0.939 0 0.914 of no failure Expected 2.95 2.85 1.55 failure cost Total expected cost of pipeline failure = Rupees 13 million per year


Severity * 25

0

0

2.2

0.879

3.1

* Severity figures are in Rupees in million; PLS – Pipeline stretch US$ 1 = Rupees 47 Assumptions: • With the implementation of proposed inspection and maintenance program the probability of failure of each pipeline stretch would reduce to half of the previously computed figure. • Severity of the failure would be the minimum computed failure cost i.e. Rupees 25 million.

This article presents an integrated framework of technical, environmental impact, and social impact assessment for project evaluation and selection. This model uses an AHP framework that considers both subjective and objective factors. The model has the following advantages: • • • •

• • • • •

It allows incorporation of interactive input from the executives of related functional areas. It integrates technical, financial, and impacts assessment with benefits to both the project owner and affected populations. Its aids objective decision-making by quantifying many subjective factors. Both tangible and intangible elements can be included in the AHP hierarchy. Qualitative judgment and quantitative data can be included in the priority setting process. AHP is an effective tool for conducting group planning sessions in an analytical and systematic manner. It demands collection of information that is ultimately of use during the detailed engineering stage. The sensitivity analysis utility of AHP provides the decision-makers a sense of effects of their decisions. It improves communication among project stakeholders and allows consideration of the concerns of project stakeholders in a structured way. It not only helps in managing project effectively, but also helps develop a quality project with a potential for desired outputs.

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The model suffers from the limitation of not completely removing subjectivity from the decision model. However, it is an improvement over the present practice. Petroleum pipelines are the nervous system of oil industry, as this transports crude oil from sources to refineries and petroleum products from refineries to demand points. Therefore, the efficient operations of these pipelines determine the effectiveness of the entire business. As pipelines pass through varied terrain, the condition of pipelines varies widely across their entire length and throughout their life-cycle. However, inspecting the entire pipelines through specific inspection methodology / tool cannot detect pipeline problems for the entire length as inspection tools are designed to detect specific problems only. On the other hand, inspecting the entire pipeline by various tools to detect the entire associate problems are not cost effective. This study presents a decision support system (DSS) model in AHP framework, which determines the likely problems associated with each stretch with the involvement of the experienced pipeline operators. This leads to the development of a cost-effective inspection and maintenance strategy for the pipelines. The same methodology can be used for any operating unit to develop strategic DSS for inspection and maintenance. Advantages of this method of analysis described here include the following: • • • • • • • •

reducing subjectivity in the decision making process when selecting an inspection technique, identify the right pipeline or segment for inspection and maintenance, formulating an inspection and maintenance policy, deriving the budget allocation for inspection and maintenance, providing guidance to deploy the right mix of labor in inspection and maintenance, enhancing emergency preparations, assessing risk and fixing an insurance premium; and forming a basis for demonstrating the risk level to governments and other regulatory agencies.

The technique does have limitations, because subjectivity is not totally eliminated. For instance, the weightage against each of the failure factors is based upon experience, available data and perception of the pipeline executives and decision-makers. Despite these limitations, a cross-country petroleum pipeline inspection and maintenance policy formed on the basis of our methodology is an effective tool to mitigate risk. It is cost effective and environmentally friendly. The established decision support system will help the pipeline operators to dynamically evaluate pipeline health and to make decision on types of inspection and maintenance program for specific stretch any time they desire. Therefore, all the pipeline sections will get attention with respect to health, although inspection and maintenance may be exempted for specific sections during a given period because of better condition of pipeline during risk analysis study. Application of AHP in both pipelines project selection and inspection and maintenance policy selection using environmental factors ensures sustainable development in entire oil industry.


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REFERENCE Annual Report of CONCAWE. 1994, Brussels (Conservation of Clean Air and Water, Europe). Calvin H and Dey, P K, 2002. Social Impact Assessment of a sewerage project in Barbados, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, Vol. 20. No.2, 215 – 223. Chu, Pin-Yu V., Hsu Yeh-Liang and Fehling, M., 1996. A decision support system for project portfolio selection. Computer in Industry, 32(2), 141 – 149. Dey, P. K. and Gupta, S. S., 2000, ‘Decision support system yields better pipeline route’, Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 98.22. 10, 68-73, May 29, 2000. Dey, P K, Mario T Tabucanon, Stephen O Ogunlana, 1996a, Hierarchical Approach to Project Planning, Applied Math. Modelling, Vol.20, No. 683-698. Dey, P.K., M.T. Tabucanon and S.O. Ogunlana, 1996b. Petroleum pipeline construction planning: a conceptual framework, International Journal of Project Management Vol. 14, no. 4. 231-240. Dey, P.K., S.O. Ogunlana, S. S. Gupta and M.T. Tabucanon, 1998. A risk based maintenance model for cross-country pipelines, Cost Engineering Vol. 40, No. 4. 24-31. Dey, P. K. and Gupta, S. S., 1999. Decision support system for pipeline route selection, Cost Engineering, Vol. 41 No. 10 29-35. Dey, P K and Gupta, S S., 2001. Feasibility Analysis of Cross-country Pipeline Projects: A Quantitative Approach, Project Management Journal, Vol. 32, No. 4. 50 – 58. Dey P K, 2004. Decision Support System for Inspection and maintenance of Cross-country Petroleum Pipeline, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 51 No. 1. 47 56. Dyer, R. F. and E. H. Forman, 1992, Group decision support with the analytic hierarchy process,” Decision Support System, no. 8, 99 – 124. Golden, B. L., E A Wasli and P T Harker, 1989. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Applications and Studies. New York: Springer Verlag,. Hopkins, P. 1994, Ensuring the Safe Operation of Older Pipelines. International Pipelines and offshore Contractors Association, 28th Convention. September. Islei, G., G. Lockett, B. Cox and M. Stratford, 1991. A decision support system using judgmental modeling: A case of R&D in the pharmaceutical industry, IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management, vol. 38, 202-209. Jamieson, R. M. 1986, Pipeline Integrity Monitoring. Pipeline Integrity Conference Aberdeen, Scotland. October 29-30. Khan, F I, Haddaa, M M, Bhattacharya, S K, (2006), “Risk-based integrity and inspection modelling (RBIIM) of process component system”, Risk analysis, Vol. 26 (1),203 Mian S A and Christine N D, 1999, ‘Decision-making over the project life cycle: an analytical hierarchy approach’, Project Management Journal, Vol. 30, No. 1. 40-52. Montemurro, D., and S. Barnett, 1998. GIS-based process helps trans Canada select best route for Expansion Line, Oil and Gas Journal 63 - 69. Partovi, F Y, J Burton, and A Banerjee, 1990, ‘Application analytic hierarchy process in operations management’, International Journal of Operations and Production Management, Vol. 10 No. 3, 5-19.

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Pipes and Pipelines International, 1993, Oil Industry Pipeline Leakage Survey. JanuaryFebruary 1993. Ramanathan, R and S Geetha, 1998. Socio-economic impact assessment of industrial projects in India, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, Vol. 16, no. 1, 27-32. Saaty, T.L, 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, New York: McGraw Hill. Saaty, T. L., 1982. Decision Making for Leaders. New York: Lifetime Learning, Saaty, T. L., 1983. Priority setting in complex problems, IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management, vol. EM-30, 140-155. Shpak, A. and Zaporojan, D., 1996. Working Out R&D Program via Multicriteria Analysis. Computer Science of Moldova, 4, no. 2 (11) 239 - 259. US Department of Transportation. 1995, Pipeline Safety Regulations. October 1. Vargas, L. G., 1990. An overview of the analytic hierarchy process and its applications," Europe Journal of Operatonal Reserch, vol. 48, no. 1. 2-8.



Chapter 5

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT Mark Williamson* The Glebe House, Kirkby Thore, Cumbria, CA10 1UR, UK

ABSTRACT The space environment has been part of our business and cultural realm for the past 50 years and, with the advent of space tourism, is becoming increasingly so. However, largely as a result of the financial and practical difficulties inherent in spaceflight, the concept of sustainability has yet to be fully recognised by the space community. This chapter identifies three main elements of our current and future involvement in space - scientific exploration, industrial development and space tourism – and illustrates how the success of each requires a strategy for sustainable development. It also examines the fragility of certain aspects of the space environment and explains why a delay in addressing their protection could result in their permanent degradation or loss.

INTRODUCTION Although the concept of ‘the environment’ - the Earth’s environment - is one with which most thinking people feel some affinity, many would find it difficult to identify with ‘the space environment’, because it is beyond their personal experience. Indeed, to say that the space environment is not well understood is an understatement. Serious scientific investigation of space has been underway for less than 50 years and only a few hundred people have visited the shallow sphere of space we call low Earth orbit. Just 27

*

BSc, CEng MIEE, CPhys MInstP, FBIS; Space Technology Consultant; The Glebe House; Kirkby Thore; Cumbria, CA10 1UR, UK. Tel/fax: +44 1768 361040; [email protected]

168

Mark Williamson

men have ventured beyond Earth orbit to the Moon1, a mere 300,000km distant, and only four unmanned spacecraft have left the confines of the solar system. Nevertheless, the space environment is increasingly part of our business and cultural realm. Hundreds of thousands of people around the world earn a living from the exploration and exploitation of space, while millions more benefit from the applications of space technology, often without realising it. Since the 1960s, the continuous development of the space industry has seen thousands of satellites launched into space. Today, several hundred of the latest models supply communications and broadcasting services (from disaster relief communications to satellite TV); weather observation and forecasting (which has saved thousands of lives); high-resolution Earth imaging (for use in anything from media reports to Google Earth); and navigation via the Global Positioning System (GPS). Table 1 gives a summary of selected ‘Space Firsts’. Table 1. Summary of Selected ‘Space Firsts’

1

Launch Date

Spacecraft

Nation

Event

4 October 1957 3 November 1957

Sputnik 1 Sputnik 2

USSR USSR

2 January 1959

Luna 1

USSR

7 August 1959 12 September 1959

Explorer 6 Luna 2

USA USSR

4 October 1959 1 April 1960 12 August 1960

Luna 3 Tiros 1 Echo 1

USSR USA USA

4 October 1960

Courier 1B

USA

12 February 1961 12 April 1961

Venera 1 Vostok 1

USSR USSR

7 March 1962

OSO-1

USA

10 July 1962

Telstar 1

USA

27 August 1962

Mariner 2

USA

1 November 1962 16 June 1963

Mars 1 Vostok 6

USSR USSR

First satellite in space (Earth orbit) First animal in space (Dog ‘Laika’, Earth orbit) First spacecraft to escape Earth’s gravitational field First photograph of Earth from orbit First spacecraft to impact Moon (13 September 1959) First image of lunar farside First weather satellite First passive communications satellite (reflective balloon) First active communications satellite (radio repeater) First spacecraft to reach Venus (inactive) First man in space (Yuri Gagarin, Earth orbit) First astronomical observatory in space (Orbiting Solar Observatory) First privately owned communications satellite (low Earth orbit) First successful fly-by of Venus (14 December 1962) First spacecraft to reach Mars (inactive) First woman in space (Valentina Tereshkova, Earth orbit)

Note that, in careful usage, Earth and Moon are given initial capitals: Earth in recognition of its status as a named planet and Moon to differentiate it from the moons of other planets.

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Table 1. Continued Launch Date

Spacecraft

Nation

Event

19 August 1964

Syncom 3

USA

12 October 1964

Voskhod 1

USSR

28 November 1964

Mariner 4

USA

18 March 1965 31 January 1966

Voskhod 2 Luna 9

USSR USSR

31 March 1966

Luna 10

USSR

30 May 1966

Surveyor 1

USA

21 December 1968 16 July 1969

Apollo 8 Apollo 11

USA USA

16 July 1969

Apollo 11

USA

17 August 1970

Venera 7

USSR

12 September 1970

Luna 16

USSR

10 November 1970

Luna 17

USSR

19 April 1971 2 March 1972

Salyut 1 Pioneer 10

USSR USA

20 August 1975

Viking 1

USA

12 April 1981

USA

2 July 1985

Columbia (STS-1 mission) Giotto

First spacecraft to attain geostationary orbit (communications satellite) First multi-person crew (three cosmonauts on 24-hour mission) First successful fly-by of Mars (14 July 1965) First EVA in Earth orbit (Alexei Leonov) First spacecraft to land on Moon (‘hardlanding’ on 3 February 1966) First spacecraft in lunar orbit (3 April 1966) First spacecraft to soft-land on Moon (2 June 1966) First manned spacecraft in lunar orbit First manned spacecraft on the Moon (Eagle lunar module, touchdown 8:17pm GMT 20 July 1969) First EVA on the Moon (Neil Armstrong, ‘boot down’ 2:56am GMT 21 July) First radio transmission from surface of another planet – Venus (landed 15 December 1970) First return of lunar samples to Earth (24 September 1970) First teleoperated rover on Moon (Lunokhod 1, landed 17 November 1970) First space station (Earth orbit) First spacecraft to escape solar system (passed orbit of Pluto 13 June 1983) First spacecraft to soft land on Mars (20 July 1976) First space shuttle/partially reusable launch vehicle First close encounter of a comet (Comet Halley, 13 March 1986)

4 December 1996

Mars Pathfinder

European Space Agency USA

First teleoperated rover on Mars (Sojourner, touchdown 4 July 1997) 28 April 2001 Soyuz to ISS USSR First space tourist (Dennis Tito to International Space Station) 4 October 2004 SpaceShipOne USA First privately-built spacecraft to exceed an altitude of 100km twice in succession [From: Williamson, M. (2006), Space: The Fragile Frontier, Reston: AIAA, pp8-9]

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The history of mankind’s exploration and development of the space environment is a relatively short one in the context of human history - only half a century - but its influence on our species and its culture has been considerable. For this reason alone, the term describing the period in which space exploration has been possible - the Space Age - deserves its initial capitals, to signify its importance alongside the other ‘ages of man’, such as the Stone Age and the Iron Age. The Space Age began with the launch of Sputnik 1, on 4 October 1957, and will continue, one could argue, for as long as we continue to explore space. But how should we define the space environment? In simple terms, the space environment can be defined as that part of the Universe beyond the Earth’s atmosphere (since the atmosphere is considered part of the Earth’s environment). Perhaps surprisingly, however, there is no categorical agreement on where ‘space’ begins, no internationally agreed, or legally binding, definition regarding the boundary between Earth and space. In the early years of the Space Age, 50 miles (80.5km) was a convenient figure to use, and it was this definition that allowed many of the X-15 rocket-plane pilots to earn their astronaut wings. In 2004, however, the legitimacy of a 100km limit was supported by the completion of the Ansari X-Prize competition to launch a privately-built spacecraft above this altitude twice in succession. As a result, it seems likely that this figure, which is recognised by the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) for record-certification purposes, will become the de facto boundary to the space environment. A more scientific reason for choosing 100km is that spacecraft cannot complete an orbit below this altitude, because friction with the atmosphere causes them to re-enter almost immediately. By contrast, satellites at an altitude of 600km will remain in orbit for about 15 years, while the majority, above 850km, have orbital decay periods measured in centuries. However, the Earth’s orbital environment is simply our ‘back yard’ in the context of the space environment, which also includes the orbital and surface environments of the other planetary bodies, as well as asteroids, comets and other minor astronomical bodies. Although unmanned spacecraft have been placed in orbit around Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn (and soft-landed on Venus, Mars and Saturn’s moon Titan), we have yet to extend our influence much beyond Earth orbit, let alone conduct what might be termed a development programme. But things are about to change. In 2004, US President Bush announced plans to return astronauts to the Moon, perhaps by 2020, and to develop the technology to send others to Mars. Other lunar exploration plans announced separately by Europe, India and China have since reinforced the impression that mankind is embarking on a new phase of space exploration and development, which could open what many see as a new frontier. By analogy with terrestrial exploration and development, the international space community of scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs expect initial exploratory missions to lead to industrial development and other commercial exploitation, but have so far given little consideration to the sustainability of their efforts. Since the launch of Sputnik 1 in October 1957, the Earth’s orbital environment has been explored and developed largely for the good of mankind, but those first 50 years of the Space Age have also seen an increase in manmade orbital debris that threatens the sustainability of all scientific and commercial pursuits in near-Earth space. This debris includes satellites that have reached the end of their lives, spent launch vehicle stages, hardware accidentally released by astronauts (including bolts, lens caps and the almost legendary astronaut’s glove


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which floated out of the hatch of a Gemini capsule), as well as the remnants of spacecraft and launch vehicles which have exploded or been hit by other debris. Although the volume of space is large, the damaging effect of orbital debris relates to its relatively high velocity, and thus kinetic energy. The average collision velocity between two objects in low Earth orbit is about 10 kilometres per second, which gives a 1 gram particle the same energy as a 1 tonne car travelling at 10m/s (about 36km/h). The effects have been illustrated countless times by the examination of space hardware returned from orbit by the Space Shuttle. Indeed, some of the most compelling evidence comes from the Shuttle itself, which has suffered damage from the tiniest samples of space debris, believed to have originated from orbiting satellites. In June 1983, for example, a window of the Challenger orbiter was cratered by an object which chemical analysis later revealed to be a particle of spacecraft paint. Calculations showed that a 0.2mm paint fleck, travelling at a relative velocity of between three and six kilometres per second, produced the 4mm-diameter crater [1]. One needs little imagination to estimate the result of a larger impact.

Figure 1. Computer generated graphic of tracked debris objects in low Earth orbit. [NASA]

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Figure 2. Debris crater in Space Shuttle window on STS-7 mission. [NASA]

Unfortunately, discarded rocket stages and some satellites too old to have been ‘made safe’ under current industrial good practice continue to explode in orbit, further increasing the debris population. Although much of this debris will eventually re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere and burn up, as long as it is in space it remains a threat to the viability of operational satellites and the sustainability of commercial applications. Indeed, the vulnerability of the orbital environment was highlighted as recently as January 2007 by the intentional destruction, by China, of one of its defunct weather satellites. On 11 January 2007, China launched a medium range ballistic missile - characterised by Western observers as an anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) - at the Fengyun-1C satellite, creating thousands of new debris objects. Apart from inciting international condemnation, it caused


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concern among the commercial Earth imaging industry, whose satellites orbit at similar altitudes. Some research into the evolution of the debris population has suggested a potential disaster scenario known as the ‘cascade effect’, whereby debris collisions produce large numbers of objects, which undergo further collisions producing even more debris. First mooted in the 1980s, this chain reaction could lead to the closure of some of the more popular orbits within a relatively short time [2]. If the production of debris continues as it has in the past, a critical population - which is thought to be only two to three times the current population - could be reached before the middle of the century. All predictions of the future are open to interpretation, but the suggestion that such an effect is even possible should start alarm bells ringing in the space community, since it directly affects the sustainability of the most popular orbits. However, the history of space exploration and development has shown that a strategy or policy of sustainability is unlikely to emerge automatically as a by-product of further exploration or development, largely because of financial and political pressures. Selfevidently, the budgets of individual space agencies and industrial organisations are limited, which tends to mean that they do only as much as they need to do in order to meet technical specifications, government policy or other defined requirements. If sustainability is not identified as a requirement, it is unlikely to be provided for. Thus a concerted effort to develop a strategy for sustainability is required. In the terrestrial context, ‘sustainability’ is understood to mean ‘capable of being maintained without exhausting natural resources or causing severe environmental damage’, but there is no need to confine this definition to Earth. The concept and culture of environmental sustainability is directly transferable to the space environment and, moreover, should be a prerequisite for future space exploration and development as part of a long term, sustainable strategy [3]. Based on an appreciation of current space applications and those planned for the near future, it is possible to identify three main aspects of the new era in space: scientific exploration, industrial development and space tourism. The success of each of these aspects requires a strategy for sustainable development.

SCIENTIFIC EXPLORATION Although, in general usage, the term ‘space exploration’ covers almost any space-related endeavour, to those more closely involved with the subject, it is confined to the scientific and physical exploration of space by either unmanned or manned spacecraft (and their occupants) and does not include commercial endeavours. Space missions dedicated to prospecting for resources, and perhaps laying claim to real estate, are as yet in the future, and will be covered here under the heading of ‘industrial development’. Apart from the obvious factors of finance and political will, the key requirement for sustainability of scientific exploration of the space environment is the protection of that environment (which includes the surfaces, sub-surfaces and atmospheres of the planetary bodies as well as interplanetary space). This is because space science is predicated on discovering what there is in the natural space environment, not the effect we have had on it.

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Lunar Surface Once the early spacecraft had been launched into orbit around the Earth, the next most obvious target of scientific interest was the Moon, simply because of its relative proximity to the Earth. While most spacecraft take many months to reach the nearest planets - Mars and Venus - the Moon is only three days away. In the early Space Age, however, the primitive nature of guidance and navigation technology made placing a spacecraft in orbit around the Moon impossible and ‘successful’ photographic missions ended with crashing the spacecraft onto its surface. It was difficult to argue, in the 1960s, that this was detrimental to the local environment, especially one that exhibits a history of meteor impacts. Moreover, the Moon was considered a barren body, devoid of life and therefore only of limited scientific interest. It was even acceptable, later on, that 11-tonne Saturn rocket stages should be targeted at the Moon to act as thumpers for the Apollo seismometers, allowing lunar geologists to determine the overall physical structure of the body. But there have now been more than 80 spacecraft impacts and over 100 tonnes of debris deposited on the Moon [4] in the name of science and some concerned individuals believe that that is enough [5].

Figure 3. Earthrise from the Moon, which is 400,000km and three days away. [NASA]


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Latitude

90

60

30

Longitude 0 -180

-150

-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

-30

-60

-90

Figure 4. Known landing and impact sites on the Moon. [Nicholas Johnson/ NASA]

The impact that excited the most criticism was that of Lunar Prospector, which was targeted at the Moon’s south pole in 1999 in an attempt to create a plume of water molecules from suspected polar ice deposits. Not only was it not sterilised or actively decontaminated, it carried within it the cremated remains of lunar geologist Eugene Shoemaker – hardly consistent, some have argued, with the search for potable water [6]. The European Space Agency’s SMART-1 lunar orbiter was de-orbited onto the Moon’s ‘Lake of Excellence’ in September 2006. No doubt in recognition of the potential criticism attached to larger impacts, ESA drew attention to its “relatively low” impact speed of 2km/s that would create “a small crater of three to 10m in diameter…no larger than that created by a 1kg meteorite on a surface already heavily affected by natural impacts” [7]. While it remains difficult to criticise current spacecraft impact practices on grounds of environmental damage, crashing spacecraft onto the lunar surface is not consistent with a sustainable policy for lunar exploration, not least because it could prove dangerous for future lunar inhabitants. Most manned lunar exploration scenarios predict the development of permanent bases or outposts, but continuing to impact spacecraft on the surface could threaten their sustainability. Not only is it incompatible with the risk-averse nature of manned space missions; it would also make financing and insurance more difficult for any commercial endeavour or private finance initiative (PFI). From an engineering point of view, the most obvious solution to sustainability of lunar surface operations is the development of the requisite infrastructure, which would include vehicles, transport nodes and bases. This was not available to the Apollo lunar programme of the 1960s and 70s and, for that reason as much as any other, the lunar exploration programme was unsustainable. However, the sustainability of lunar surface science itself also relies on the preservation of the natural aspects of the lunar surface and, not unimportantly, the safety of future lunar scientists.

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It has been suggested that damage to the lunar surface environment could be minimised by designating special regions along the lunar equator as “satellite dumping grounds”, a policy that would also concentrate potentially valuable materials for subsequent salvage and use [8]. However, this ignores the potential disadvantages of debris ‘re-orbiting’, as discussed below.

Lunar Orbit If a sustainable lunar base is to be developed, for science or any other application, it will also be necessary to install an orbital infrastructure around the Moon, consisting, at the very least, of communications and GPS-type satellites to enable safe and reliable surface operations. Long term developments might also see the installation of manned orbital stations, similar in concept to the International Space Station now in orbit around the Earth. For this reason, lunar orbit must be kept as clear as possible of manmade debris. Unfortunately, a debris generation mechanism not experienced in Earth orbit may operate in lunar orbit. As a result of the Moon’s relatively low surface gravity and the absence of an atmosphere, debris hitting the surface at great speeds can potentially be thrown onto high altitude trajectories, or ‘re-orbited’. Observations made by the Galileo spacecraft in orbit around Jupiter have indicated that small pieces of natural debris produced in this manner may be in orbit around the Jovian moons Ganymede, Callisto and Europa [9]. If lunar re-orbiting does, indeed, occur, the practice of crashing spacecraft on the surface, and particularly the high energy impacts of the Apollo Saturn stages, may already have contributed to the lunar orbital debris population. In the absence of Moon-based radar systems similar to those of the Space Surveillance Network on Earth, we have no way of knowing. The sustainability of a future orbital infrastructure depends on a more complete understanding of the issues. So, while the surface of the Moon might well be described as desolate and resilient to impact – whether natural or manmade – lunar orbit is a far more fragile environment in terms of keeping it safe for orbiting spacecraft. It has also been argued that the lunar atmosphere is a fragile and tenuous medium. Though it may comprise, in total, only a few tonnes of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and other trace gases [10], to a planetary scientist all atmospheres are unique and worthy of study. Considering the estimate that a single Apollo mission temporarily doubled the total atmospheric mass of the Moon – as a result of rocket engine emissions - it takes little imagination to predict the environmental impact of sustained lunar exploration and development. This is not an argument for somehow banning future exploration, simply a call for recognition that our actions have an effect - sometimes an irreversible impact - on the space environment.

Planetary Protection Although planetary missions have confirmed that the Moon is a desolate place – albeit “magnificent desolation” in Buzz Aldrin’s words – the planet Mars is quite another matter. Recent missions have detected deposits of water ice and indications that liquid water may


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have flowed on the surface in the recent geological past…and where there is water, there is usually life (at least on our planet). However, some observers worry that planned missions are in danger of damaging the environment they seek to explore, contaminating the surface before potential life-forms have been discovered. It was realised as early as 1964 that planetary spacecraft should be sterilised as part of a ‘planetary protection’ regime, but requirements were relaxed in the late 1970s, effectively eliminating the need for any decontamination of spacecraft destined for the outer planets (beyond Mars). Although the situation has improved since then, estimates suggest that the Mars Exploration Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, each carried some 200,000 bacterial spores to the planet’s surface. As life-detecting payloads become more sensitive, this so-called ‘bioload’ becomes more critical, since the last thing scientists want to detect on Mars is something deposited in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory cleanroom. Indeed, false positives planted by poor sterilisation techniques could damage the course of scientific exploration, not only giving false hope to those who search for signs of extraterrestrial life, but also potentially closing a region to further investigation (and thus affecting the sustainability of scientific exploration). The potential for confusion is illustrated by the case of Surveyor 3, which landed on the Moon in April 1967. In November 1969, as an interesting adjunct to the Apollo 12 lunar mission, astronauts Conrad and Bean were able to visit the Surveyor 3 spacecraft, remove selected hardware and return it to Earth for analysis. When a camera returned by the crew was dismantled, technicians reportedly discovered streptococcus mitis bacteria on a sample of foam inside the camera housing [11,12]. According to one author, the surface wrappings of certain electrical cables had been “contaminated with several thousand Bacillus Subtilis spores” [13]. Whatever the biological identity of the stowaways, and however they got there, they had seemingly not only survived the journey to the Moon, but also two years and seven months on the lunar surface. However, as with much of science, it is difficult to obtain definitive proof. Other authors have suggested that the contamination may have been introduced in NASA’s Lunar Receiving Laboratory. It is reported, for example, that no other components of the Apollo 12 camera contained bacteria, and none were found in the test camera that remained on Earth [14]. The truth may never be known, but the streptococcus controversy illustrates the potential for confusion in analysing planetary sample-return payloads and the need to take planetary contamination seriously. Any relaxation of planetary protection policies risks the sustainability of this aspect of scientific exploration.

INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT The pursuit of science is, of course, only one of the reasons to venture into space. Another is the industrial development of the space environment, otherwise termed space commerce.

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Figure 5. The Apollo 12 astronauts visited Surveyor 3 in November 1969; an accurate landing allowed them to return parts of the probe to Earth. [NASA]

Earth Orbits Earth orbit has been used for more than four decades for space commerce. The most important orbit for the leading commercial space application - satellite communications - is geostationary orbit. It is a unique orbit - in the plane of the Earth’s equator, at an altitude of about 36,000km - in which satellites revolve at the same rate as the Earth itself. As a result, they appear to be stationary from the ground and can occupy an ‘orbital position’ related to a line of longitude (e.g. 5°E, 28°W). These orbital positions, and the radio frequencies used by the satellites, are coordinated by the International Telecommunication Union, a specialised agency of the United Nations.


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Figure 6. Geostationary orbital positions are an important and valuable resource for the satellite communications industry. [Mark Williamson/Willis Inspace]

In engineering terms, the need for sustainability has already been recognised, in that satellites are designed to operate for relatively long periods (typically 15 years) without physical intervention, and can be replaced when necessary (largely thanks to a commercial launch industry). However, from an environmental perspective, the threat to the sustainability of satellite communications is still not widely appreciated. Although the problem of orbital debris has been recognised for some time by the academic community, largely in the employ of space agencies and similar governmental bodies, it has taken a considerable time for the knowledge to filter down to the business community (and in some cases may still not have done so). Put simply, satellite communications depends mainly on a natural asset of the space environment - a position in geostationary orbit (GEO) – so in business terms, this aspect of the space environment has an ‘asset value’. History has shown that too little has been done to protect this asset and many defunct satellites remaining in GEO continue to pose a risk to operational satellites (should their propellant tanks or batteries explode, for example). Even the now widely accepted policy of removing defunct satellites to a graveyard orbit (around 300km above GEO) can be seen only as a temporary measure, since collisions or explosions in the graveyard could endanger operational satellites in GEO. The graveyard orbit is the space-based equivalent of the landfill site, since it moves rather than eliminates the problem. Moreover, as space commerce develops, the asset value of other orbits - sun synchronous orbits for imaging satellites and medium Earth orbits for navigation systems – increases, as does the threat of debris. Even science missions based in low Earth orbit, not to mention

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manned space stations, remain at the mercy of space debris. Indeed, the first validated collision between two catalogued objects has already occurred - when debris from the third stage of an Ariane rocket hit the Cerise microsatellite in 1996. Recent research by NASA’s Johnson Space Center shows that even if all future launches were cancelled, the debris count in certain orbits would continue to increase as a result of upper stage explosions and subsequent collisions [15]. The current constitution of Earth’s orbital environment and its future viability are far more fragile than most people seem willing to admit.

Moon and Mars Orbits Although policies and debris mitigation measures for Earth orbit have been agreed at international level, no similar measures have been agreed for orbits around other planetary bodies such as the Moon and Mars. The extension of the issue of space debris in Earth orbit to the orbital environment of the Moon and Mars is, admittedly, somewhat forward–looking, but with governments intent on sending astronauts to these destinations, it is time to consider the protection of their orbital environments. If the exploration and development of the Moon and Mars is pursued without regard to these issues, it will not be sustainable in the medium term (of decades), let alone the long term (of centuries).

Figure 7. Will lunar orbit develop a debris problem like the Earth’s? [Mark Williamson]


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While self-supporting, off-world colonies may seem, at present, better suited to the realms of science fiction, it is important to remember that handheld satellite phones and GPS receivers were fictional less than 20 years ago, as was the concept of a reusable suborbital spacecraft (soon to became reality thanks to Virgin Galactic and its contractor Scaled Composites). As mentioned above, a lunar orbit station or surface colony will be dependent on a transportation and communications infrastructure which uses lunar orbit, so if the orbital environment becomes unusable, then so will the colony. Obviously, the greater the scope of development, the greater the chance for the creation of orbital debris. The space community is already familiar with computer-generated plots of orbital debris around the Earth and must do all it can to avoid the necessity for similar plots for Moon and Mars orbits. Like Earth orbit, these orbits have an asset value which must be protected.

Surface Environments As for surface environments, they too have an undeniable value depending on the user. While scientists characterise chemical compositions or search for traces of life, prospective developers might wish to strip-mine a surface or build a leisure resort. The problem is that the lunar environment is far more fragile than the Earth’s, because it has no atmosphere, no weather and no self-repair capability, and any change to its barren surface is practically irreversible. The example most often written about is the mining of mineral and other resources from the Moon, Mars or asteroidal bodies [16,17,18]. Helium-3, which is deposited on the planetary bodies by the solar wind, is seen as one of the most important potential products of extraterrestrial mining, because of its use in still-to-be-developed nuclear fusion reactors, here on Earth or elsewhere. On the Moon, for example, it could be found in the first three metres of lunar regolith across the whole lunar surface. The low concentrations of only several parts per billion mean that it would have to be collected by extensive strip mining techniques, which would have a significant and visible effect on the lunar surface. It has been suggested that to mine a single kilogram of helium 3 would require the collection and processing of 250 tonnes of lunar regolith [19]. Although it is more of an environmental protection issue than pure, pragmatic sustainability, the environmental impact of such a mine from an aesthetic and cultural point of view could be considerable, since the Moon is easily visible from Earth [20]. The lunar crater Plato, well known to amateur astronomers because of its flat, dark floor, provides a useful example. Could the crater that 17th century German astronomer Johannes Hevelius called The Great Black Lake become a great black scratch pad? [21] This is not to say that strip mining of the nearside should necessarily be banned; it is more a matter of determining to what extent it should be limited. For example, if mines are to be established, should their size be limited so as not to be visible with the average naked eye, thus protecting the cultural heritage of ‘the man in the Moon’? Or should they be small enough to remain invisible through the average amateur telescope (a far more difficult requirement). These and other questions will one day be asked, not out of academic interest as they are now, but because answers are required by governments or regulatory bodies.

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Figure 8. The potential result of strip-mining the crater Plato. [Mark Williamson]

So if lunar surface development (or its equivalent on Mars) is to be sustainable in the broadest sense, it will have to adhere to certain internationally agreed guidelines (possibly even laws). This is a far more difficult problem than the protection of lunar orbit, which is governed by pragmatic considerations. At worst case, a helium-3 mining company could strip-mine the entire lunar surface before it considered its business plan to be at risk, but by then the Moon’s surface would be ‘scarred for life’. Individual developments could ignore the interests - and arguably rights - of other lunar users. For example, heavy industrial development could interfere with lunar surface science; orbital communications relays could interfere with radio astronomy; and any form of sustained exploration or development would create a lunar ‘atmosphere’ of engine exhaust products. A balance between unregulated development and protectionism will have to be struck, and one of the first steps towards this balance is the development of a strategy, probably as a stepping stone to an internationally agreed policy.

SPACE TOURISM The fast-paced development of the space tourism industry in the past decade or so has made the requirement for a sustainable development policy even more urgent. The successful launch of a privately-built spacecraft on a sub-orbital trajectory in late 2004, which marked the completion of the Ansari X-Prize competition, was a sign that the floodgates of space tourism may be about to open.


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Figure 9. When Virgin Galactic begins transporting tourists into space, this may become a familiar sight. [Scaled Composites]

While no-one can reliably predict the pace or trajectory of space tourism, developments such as Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic venture suggest that the advent of commercial space tourism is only a matter of years away. Although Virgin Galactic is the recognised frontrunner, several other companies are now developing private spaceflight initiatives and several US states are developing spaceports from which to operate the resulting vehicles. In addition, though less well publicised, hotel chain entrepreneur Robert Bigelow has already launched an inflatable orbital module designed as the test vehicle for a future space hotel and Space Adventures (the company that arranges trips to the International Space Station for wealthy tourists) has announced plans for tourist flights around the Moon. These and other developments suggest that private initiatives might soon overtake government programmes in their bid to develop space. This opens a Pandora’s box of potential problems for those with the interests of the space environment at heart. While governments can usually be expected to toe the environmental line eventually (as shown by decades of terrestrial experience), private companies will typically only do so when self-interest or legislation intervenes. The question is, if tourism opens the space frontier for a new class of traveller, what is to stop those adventure tourists degrading the environment that attracted them in the first place? There are many cases where this has happened on Earth, from the transformation of Spanish fishing villages into high-rise tourist destinations, to the littering of Mount Everest with discarded oxygen cylinders and, of course, dead bodies. And although global air tourism has undeniable cultural and economic benefits, it also contributes to atmospheric pollution. A similar balance between pros and cons must be made for space tourism.

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Figure 10. The ultimate iconic image of the 20th century - but how long will Aldrin’s boot print survive once the lunar tourists arrive? [NASA]

Beyond Earth orbit, the most likely tourist destination is the Moon, and the Apollo 11 landing site will undoubtedly be a key attraction. With no wind or rain to erode them, the Apollo astronauts’ footprints could remain as they are today for millennia, but how long will it be before the first lunar tourists place their own, clumsy boots in the historic footprints of Armstrong and Aldrin, erasing them forever? Perhaps even before the first regular tourists arrive, those historic landing sites could be visited by well-heeled adventurers and trophy-hunters, eager to remove the science equipment for sale to private collectors (it happened in Egypt, so it could happen on the Moon!). This may well be a ‘worst case scenario’, but such matters should be considered because they have a pragmatic impact on the sustainability of lunar tourism. If there is nothing to see, no-one will go. We are familiar with the protection and preservation of our culture here on Earth, but what about the important cultural heritage represented by our exploration of the space environment? At the very least, the most important landing sites should be preserved as historic international monuments or sites of special scientific interest. If space tourism - initially suborbital, later orbital, and eventually encompassing trips to the Moon - is to become a sustainable industry, aspects of the space environment must be preserved and protected. If we wait until the next generation of explorers is making footprints on the lunar surface, it may be too late.


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Figure 11. Is mindless vandalism an inevitable consequence of lunar tourism? [Mark Williamson/NASA]

CONCLUSION Although space is now firmly part of our business environment, it is generally not recognised as an environment worth protecting. Even seasoned space professionals tend to view the space environment (including the planetary bodies) in the same way the early explorers viewed the American West: wild, untamed and ripe for exploitation. Moreover,

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with missions planned largely on a one-off basis, the concept of sustainable development has yet to enter the space vernacular. This is short-sighted to say the least. Even discounting the opinion that the space environment has a value in its own right - because it is strange, unique and beautiful –anyone running a business that depends on that environment should recognise its ‘asset value’. The asset might be a geostationary orbital position for communications, a sun-synchronous orbit for Earth imaging or a lunar orbit for tourism. Whatever its nature, the sustainability of a key asset is fundamental to the future of a business. Moreover, certain aspects of the space environment exhibit a fragility that makes damage irreversible. Thus protection of the space environment is not an option in a sustainable strategy; it is a central theme [22]. If the space community is serious about the exploration and development of what has been termed ‘the fragile frontier’, it needs to address the sustainability issue now.

REFERENCES [1] Ailor, W. (1998), ‘Meteoroids, Space Debris, and Related Space Hazards’, Analytical Graphics Insurance Symposium: ‘How Safe Are Your Space Vehicle Investments?’, 12 Nov 1998. [2] Eichler, P. & Rex, D. (1989), ‘Chain Reaction of Debris Generation by Collisions in Space - A Final Threat to Spaceflight?’, IAA-89-628, 40th IAF Congress, Malaga, 1989. [3] Williamson, M. (2006), Space: The Fragile Frontier, Reston: AIAA, ISBN 1-56347776-9. [4] Johnson, N. (2000), ‘Man-Made Debris in and from Lunar Orbit’, Earth Space Review, Vol.9 No.4, 57-65. [5] Williamson, M. (2006), ‘Sustainable Development of “The Fragile Frontier”’, IAC-06D4.1.06, 57th IAF Congress, Valencia, 2006. [6] Sterns, P. (1999), ‘The Scientific/Legal Implications of Planetary Protection and Exobiology’, IAA-99-IAA.7.1.06 (IAA/IISL Scientific-Legal Round Table on Protection of the Space Environment), 50th IAF Congress, Amsterdam, 1999. [7] European Space Agency press release, No.30-2006, Paris, 17 August 2006. [8] Johnson, N. (1999), ‘Man-Made Debris in and from Lunar Orbit’, IAA-99-IAA.7.1.03 (IAA/IISL Scientific-Legal Round Table on Protection of the Space Environment), 50th IAF Congress, Amsterdam, 1999. [9] Kruger, H et al (1999), ‘Detection of an Impact-Generated Dust Cloud Around Ganymede’, Nature, Vol. 399, 10 June 1999, 558-560. [10] Vondrak, R. R. (1989), ‘Environmental Modification by Lunar Base Activities’, IAA89-633, 40th IAF Congress, Malaga, 1989. [11] Noever, D. (1998), ‘Earth Microbes on the Moon’, Science@ NASA/Space Science News website (http//:science.nasa.gov/default.htm), Sept 1, 1998. [12] Harland, D. M. (1999), Exploring the Moon, Chichester: Springer-Praxis, p45. [13] Phillips, C. R. (1975), ‘The Planetary Quarantine Program: Origins and Achievements’, Washington: NASA SP-4902, US GPO stock no 3300-00578, 1974/5 (quoted in Sterns, P. M. & Tennen, L. I. (1989), ‘Recent Developments in the Planetary Protection Policy:


[14]

[15] [16] [17] [18] [19]

[20] [21] [22]

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is the Outer Space Environment at Risk?’, IISL-89-040, 40th IAF Congress, Malaga, 1989). Rummel, J. D. (2004), ‘Strep, Lies (?), and 16mm Film: Did S. Mitis Survive on the Moon? Should Humans be Allowed on Mars?’ , Int. Journal of Astrobiology, x:xx (Abstract for 2004 Astrobiology Science Conference). De Selding, P. B. (2006), ‘Orbital Debris a Growing Problem with No End in Sight’, Space News, July 31, 2006, p8. Blair, B. R. (2001), ‘The Commercial Development of Lunar Mineral Resources’, Earth Space Review, Volume 10, No.1, 76-84. Shrunk, D. G. (2001), ‘The Planet Moon: Stepping Stone to Space’, Earth Space Review, Volume 10, No.1, 70-75. Lewis, J. S. (1996), Mining the Sky: Untold Riches from the Asteroids, Comets, and Planets, Reading: Addison-Wesley. Wade, D. (2004/5), ‘Directions in Space: a Possible Future for the Space Industry’, International Space Review (www.dsairpublications/ISR.com), December 2004, 6-8 (Part I); January 2005, 8-9 (Part II). Williamson, M. (1997), ‘Protection of the Space Environment Under the Outer Space Treaty’, IISL-97-IISL.4.02, 48th IAF Congress, Turin, 1997. Williamson, M. (2006), Space: The Fragile Frontier, Reston: AIAA, p212. Williamson, M. (2005), ‘Lunar Exploration and Development—A Sustainable Model’, Acta Astronautica, Volume 57, Issues 2-8, July-October 2005, 161-166.



Chapter 6

ENERGY, WATER AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Abdeen Mustafa Omer 17 Juniper Court, Forest Road West, Nottingham NG7 4EU, UK

ABSTRACT Globally, buildings are responsible for approximately 40% of the total world annual energy consumption. Most of this energy is for the provision of lighting, heating, cooling, and air conditioning. Increasing awareness of the environmental impact of CO2 and NOx emissions and CFCs triggered a renewed interest in environmentally friendly cooling, and heating technologies. Under the 1997 Montreal Protocol, governments agreed to phase out chemicals used as refrigerants that have the potential to destroy stratospheric ozone. It was therefore considered desirable to reduce energy consumption and decrease the rate of depletion of world energy reserves and pollution of the environment. This chapter discusses a comprehensive review of energy sources, environment and sustainable development. This includes all the renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency systems, energy conservation scenarios, energy savings and other mitigation measures necessary to reduce climate change.

Keywords: green energy technologies, sustainable development, mitigation measurements

1. INTRODUCTION Over millions of years ago plants covered the earth, converting the energy of sunlight into living tissue, some of which was buried in the depths of the earth to produce deposits of coal, oil and natural gas. During the past few decades has found many valuable uses for these complex chemical substances, manufacturing from them plastics, textiles, fertilisers and the various end products of the petrochemical industry. Each decade sees increasing uses for these products. Coal, oil and gas are non-renewable natural resources, which will certainly be of great value to future generations, as they are to ours. The rapid depletion of non-renewable fossil resources need not continue, since it is now or soon will be technically and

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economically feasible to supply all of man’s need from the most abundant energy source of all, the sun. The sunlight is not only inexhaustible; it is the only energy source, which is completely non-polluting [1]. The World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002 committed itself to ‘‘encourage and promote the development of renewable energy sources to accelerate the shift towards sustainable consumption and production’’. Aimed at breaking the link between resource use and productivity. It is about: • • • • •

Trying to ensure economic growth doesn’t cause environmental pollution. Improving resource efficiency. Examining the whole life-cycle of a product. Enabling consumers to receive more information on products and services. Examining how taxes, voluntary agreements, subsidies, regulation and information campaigns, can best stimulate innovation and investment to provide cleaner technology.

Examining how taxes, voluntary agreements, subsidies, regulation and information campaigns, can best stimulate innovation and investment to provide cleaner technology. Sustainability has been defined as the extent to which progress and development should meet the need of the present without compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs [2]. This encompasses a variety of levels and scales ranging from economic development and agriculture, to the management of human settlements and building practices. This general definition was further developed to include sustainable building practices and management of human settlements. The following issues were addressed during the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 [3]: • • • •

•

The use of local materials and indigenous building sources. Incentive to promote the continuation of traditional techniques, with regional resources and self-help strategies. Regulation of energy-efficient design principles. International information exchange on all aspects of construction related to the environment, among architects and contractors, particularly non-conventional resources. Exploration of methods to encourage and facilitate the recycling and reuse of building materials, especially those requiring intensive energy use during manufacturing, and the use of clean technologies.

Action areas for producers: • •

Management and measurement tools- adopting environmental management systems appropriate for the business. Performance assessment tools- making use of benchmarking to identify scope for impact reduction and greater eco-efficiency in all aspects of the business.

Energy, Water and Sustainable Development •

•

•

•

•

•

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Best practice tools- making use of free help and advice from government best practice programmes (energy efficiency, environmental technology, resource savings). Innovation and ecodesign- rethinking the delivery of ‘value added’ by the business, so that impact reduction and resource efficiency are firmly built in at the design stage. Cleaner, leaner production processes- pursuing improvements and savings in waste minimisation, energy and water consumption, transport and distribution, as well as reduced emissions. Tables (1-3) indicate energy conservation, sustainable development and environment. Supply chain management- specifying more demanding standards of sustainability from ‘upstream’ suppliers, while supporting smaller firms to meet those higher standards. Product stewardship- taking the broadest view of ‘producer responsibility’ and working to reduce all the ‘downstream’ effects of products after they have been sold on to customers. Openness and transparency- publicly reporting on environmental performance against meaningful targets; actively using clear labels and declarations so that customers are fully informed; building stakeholder confidence by communicating sustainability aims to the workforce, the shareholders and the local community (Figure 1).

With the debate on climate change, the preference for real measured data has been changed. The analyses of climate scenarios needs an hourly weather data series that allows for realistic changes in various weather parameters. By adapting parameters in a proper way, data series can be generated for the site. Weather generators should be useful for: • • •

Calculation of energy consumption (no extreme conditions are required) Design purposes (extremes are essential), and Predicting the effect of climate change such as increasing annually average of temperature.

This results in the following requirements: •

• •

Relevant climate variables should be generated (solar radiation: global, diffuse, direct solar direction, temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction) according to the statistics of the real climate. The average behaviour should be in accordance with the real climate. Extremes should occur in the generated series in the way it will happen in a real warm period. This means that the generated series should be long enough to assure these extremes, and series based on average values from nearby stations.

Growing concerns about social and environmental sustainability have led to increased interest in planning for the energy utility sector because of its large resource requirements and production of emissions. A number of conflicting trends combine to make the energy sector a

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major concern, even though a clear definition of how to measure progress toward sustainability is lacking. These trends include imminent competition in the electricity industry, global climate change, expected long-term growth in population and pressure to balance living standards (including per capital energy consumption). Designing and implementing a sustainable energy sector will be a key element of defining and creating a sustainable society. In the electricity industry, the question of strategic planning for sustainability seems to conflict with the shorter time horizons associated with market forces as deregulation replaces vertical integration. Sustainable low-carbon energy scenarios for the new century emphasise the untapped potential of renewable resources. Rural areas can benefit from this transition. The increased availability of reliable and efficient energy services stimulates new development alternatives. It is concluded that renewable environmentally friendly energy must be encouraged, promoted, implemented, and demonstrated by full-scale plant especially for use in remote rural areas. Table 1. Energy and sustainable environment Technological criteria Primary energy saving in regional scale

Technical maturity, reliability Consistence of installation and maintenance requirements with local technical known-how Continuity and predictability of performance

Energy and environment criteria Sustainability according to greenhouse gas pollutant emissions Sustainable according to other pollutant emissions Land requirement

Sustainability according to other environmental impacts

Social and economic criteria Labour impact

Market maturity Compatibility with political, legislative and administrative situation Cost of saved primary energy

Table 2. Classification of key variables defining facility sustainability Criteria Stakeholder satisfaction Resource base impacts

Intra-system impacts Standard expectations met Relative importance of standard expectations Change in intra-system resource bases Significance of change

Ecosystem impacts

Change in intra-system ecosystems Significance of change

Extra-system impacts Covered by attending to extra-system resource base and ecosystem impacts Resource flow into/out of facility system Unit impact exerted by flow on source/sink system Significance of unit impact Resource flows into/out of facility system Unit impact exerted by how on source/sink system Significance of unit impact

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Table 3. Positive impact of durability, adaptability and energy conservation on economic, social and environment systems Economic system Durability Meeting changing needs of economic development Energy conservation and saving

Social system Preservation of cultural values Meeting changing needs of individuals and society Savings directed to meet other social needs

Environmental system Preservation of resources Reuse, recycling and preservation of resources Preservation of resources, reduction of pollution and global warming

This is the step in a long journey to encourage a progressive economy, which continues to provide us with high living standards, but at the same time helps reduce pollution, waste mountains, other environmental degradation, and environmental rationale for future policymaking and intervention to improve market mechanisms. This vision will be accomplished by: •

• •

•

‘Decoupling’ economic growth and environmental degradation. The basket of indicators illustrated shows the progress being made (Table 4). Decoupling air and water pollution from growth, making good headway with CO2 emissions from energy, and transport. The environmental impact of our own individual behaviour is more closely linked to consumption expenditure than the economy as a whole. Focusing policy on the most important environmental impacts associated with the use of particular resources, rather than on the total level of all resource use. Increasing the productivity of material and energy use that are economically efficient by encouraging patterns of supply and demand, which are more efficient in the use of natural resources. The aim is to promote innovation and competitiveness. Investment in areas like energy efficiency, water efficiency and waste minimisation. Encouraging and enabling active and informed individual and corporate consumers.

Sustainable production polices – primarily targeted at producers

Structural change and innovation polices – designed to change the market conditions

Figure 1. Link between resources and productivity.

Sustainable consumption policies – primarily targeted at consumers

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Abdeen Mustafa Omer Table 4. The basket of indicators for sustainable consumption and production

Economy-wide decoupling indicators 1. Greenhouse gas emissions 2. Air pollution 3. Water pollution (river water quality) 4. Commercial and industrial waste arisings and household waste not cycled Resource use indicators 5. Material use 6. Water abstraction 7. Homes built on land not previously developed, and number of households Decoupling indicators for specific sectors 8. Emissions from electricity generation 9. Motor vehicle kilometres and related emissions 10. Agricultural output, fertiliser use, methane emissions and farmland bird populations 11. Manufacturing output, energy consumption and related emissions 12. Household consumption, expenditure energy, water consumption and waste generated

2. ENERGY RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Climate change is a hot issue in world politics. The use of fossil fuel is seen as a cause of critical global warming. Long-term energy options currently considered include the petroleum, electricity, and biomass. Sustainability is increasingly becoming an element of world politics, although there is not yet agreement on a clear definition and indicators are still not yet fully agreed upon that would effectively enable the establishment of the sustainable development, which is so eagerly sought. However, the snowball is rolling: the process of designing sustainable development has started, and it is only a matter of political will, negotiations and time for it to accelerate, hopefully in the right direction. The job is tough, and the variety of stakeholders involved in today’s globalisation process makes the whole story even more interesting and challenging. And yet, globalisation and sustainable development are bound to become tautological. The goal of sustainability has different meanings and measures specific to various regions of the planet, each with their own economics, histories, and cultures. A pathway to sustainable development that is reasonable, achievable and hence natural in one country. In developed countries, most investments in electricity generation have paid back their initial capital costs. Research and development of new electricity generation technologies are well under way, and these technologies hold good promise of achieving commercial feasibility. New investments in electricity generation have not been aggressively pursued in recent years. Rather, policies for existing energy infrastructures have included improved options for more sustainable electricity generation e.g., less pollution, higher fuel efficiency and life extension. However, are, at best, only interim solutions. Stakeholders interaction is essential to create a culture of sustainability, with educational, regulatory, economic, environmental and ethical dimensions that can have an impact on society overall. Such a


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culture of sustainability must be designed, managed and measured in ways compatible with societal attitudes towards risk, including changes in perspective over medium and long-term time horizons. Risk-related concepts play a large part in what technologies the public views as sustainable, whether it concerns potentially large accidents from electric generation technologies, greenhouse gas emissions, vulnerability to natural disasters, or decommissioning and site reclamation problems. Research and development costs and expected lead times related to electricity generation, also play a role in stakeholder positions and public attitudes [4]. There are increasing concerns but the sustainability of the energy sector, ranging from impacts of current operation to the choice of future options for system development. These concerns include such issues as health and safety, environmental emissions, use of energy and materials resources, regulated versus competitive markets, vulnerability of electrical energy networks, cost and equity issues among users of diverse size, and appropriate technology for the development and commercialisation of improved supply and end-use equipment. Such concerns span the geographic spectrum from local issues such as cost and siting, to regional issues like acid rain [5], state and national issues such as deregulation and social acceptance of competing technologies, and global issues such as climate change [6]. Decision-makers and planners in the energy sector must address these issues, and fit them into a broader framework of national and world energy and develop policies. The methodological framework needed to assist decision-makers can be generalised in part, because most of these problems share common elements, and can be characterised by their combination of: (1) Complexity (2) dispersed solutions (3) finite resources, and (4) societal impacts. In the areas of power systems planning, one of the most pressing problems that exemplifiers this combination of characteristics is the intersection between: a) The rapid liberalisation of energy industries driving short-term actions to maximise stakeholder values, and b) The possible restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions proposed to meet the problem of global climate change.

3. ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS Environmental pollution is a major problem facing all nations of the world. People have caused air pollution since they learned to how to use fire, but man-made air pollution anthropogenic air pollution) has rapidly increased since industrialisation began. Many volatile organic compounds and trace metals are emitted into the atmosphere by human activities. The pollutants emitted into the atmosphere do not remain confined to the area near the source of emission or to the local environment, and can be transported over long distances, and create regional and global environmental problems. The privatisation, and price liberalisation in energy fields has to some secured (but not fully). Availability and adequate energy supplies to the major productive sectors is needed. The result is that, the present situation of energy supplies is for better than ten years ago (Table 5).

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Abdeen Mustafa Omer Table 5. Classifications of data requirements

Existing data

Future data

Plant data Size Life Cost (fixed and var. O&M) Forced outage Maintenance Efficiency Fuel Emissions All of above, plus Capital costs Construction trajectory Date in service

System data Peak load Load shape Capital costs Fuel costs Depreciation Rate of return Taxes System lead growth Fuel price growth Fuel import limits Inflation

A great challenge facing the global community today is to make the industrial economy more like the biosphere, that is, to make it a more closed system. This would save energy, reduce waste and pollution, and reduce costs. In short, it would enhance sustainability. Often, it is technically feasible to recycle waste in one of several different ways. For some wastes there are powerful arguments for incineration with energy recovery, rather than material recycling. Cleaner production approach and pollution control measures are needed in the recycling sector as much as in another. The industrial sector world widely is responsible for about one third of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas. Industry is also an important emitter of several other greenhouse gases. And many of industry’s products emit greenhouse gases as well, either during use or after they become waste. Opportunities exist for substantial reducing industrial emissions through more efficient production and use of energy. Fuel substitutions, the use of alternative energy technologies, process modification, and by revising materials strategies to make use of less energy and greenhouse gas intensive materials. Industry has an additional role to play through the design of products that use less energy and materials and produce lower greenhouse gas emissions. Development in the environmental sense is a rather recent concern relating to the need to manage scarce natural resources in a prudent manner-because human welfare ultimately depends on ecological services. The environmental interpretation of sustainability focuses on the overall viability and health of ecological systems- defined in terms of a comprehensive, multiscale, dynamic, hierarchical measure of resilience, vigour and organisation. Natural resource degradation, pollution and loss of biodiversity are detrimental because they increase vulnerability, undermine system health, and reduce resilience. The environmental issues include: • • • • • •

Global and transnational (climate change, ozone layer depletion). Natural habitats (forests and other ecosystems). Land (agricultural zones). Water resources (river basin, aquifer, water shed). Urban-industrial (metropolitan area, air-shed). Environmental sustainability depends on several factors, including:

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Climate change (magnitude and frequency of shocks). Systems vulnerability (extent of impact damage). System resilience (ability to recover from impacts).

Economic importance of environmental issue is increasing, and new technologies are expected to reduce pollution derived both from productive processes and products, with costs that are still unknown. This is due to market uncertainty, weak appropriability regime, lack of a dominant design, and difficulties in reconfiguring organisational routines. The degradation of the global environment is one of the most serious energy issues. Various options are proposed and investigated to mitigate climate change, acid rain or other environmental problems. Additionally, the following aspects play a fundamental role in developing environmental technologies, pointing out how technological trajectories depend both on exogenous market conditions and endogenous firm competencies: (1) Regulations concerning introduction of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV), create market demand and business development for new technologies. (2) Each stage of technology development requires alternative forms of division and coordination of innovative labour, upstream and downstream industries are involved in new forms of inter-firm relationships, causing a reconfiguration of product architectures and reducing effects of path dependency. (3) Product differentiation increases firm capabilities to plan at the same time technology reduction and customer selection, while meeting requirements concerning network externalities. (4) It is necessary to find and/or create alternative funding sources for each research, development and design stage of the new technologies.

4. SUSTAINABILITY Absolute sustainability of electricity supply is a simple concept: no depletion of world resources and no ongoing accumulation of residues. Relative sustainability is a useful concept in comparing the sustainability of two or more generation technologies. Therefore, only renewables are absolutely sustainable, and nuclear is more sustainable than fossil. However, any discussion about sustainability must not neglect the ability or otherwise of the new technologies to support the satisfactory operation of the electricity supply infrastructure. The electricity supply system has been developed to have a high degree of resilience against the loss of transmission circuits and major generators, as well as unusually large and rapid load changes. It is unlikely that consumers would tolerate any reduction in the quality of the service, even if this were the result of the adoption of otherwise benign generation technologies. Renewables are generally weather-dependent and as such their likely output can be predicted but not controlled. The only control possible is to reduce the output below that available from the resource at any given time. Therefore, to safeguard system stability and security, renewables must be used in conjunction with other, controllable, generation and with large-scale energy storage. There is a substantial cost associated with this provision.

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It is useful to codify all aspects of sustainability, thus ensuring that all factors are taken into account for each and every development proposal. Therefore, with the intention of promoting debate, a sustainability matrix is presented (Table 6). The following considerations are proposed: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Long-term availability of the energy source or fuel. Price stability of energy source or fuel. Acceptability or otherwise of by-products of the generation process. Grid services, particularly controllability of real and reactive power output. Technological stability, likelihood of rapid technical obsolescence. Knowledge base of applying the technology. Life of the installation – a dam may last more than 100 years, but a gas turbine probably will not. (8) Maintenance requirement of the plant. Table 6. Sustainability matrixes Power categories Conventional coal fired stream plant Oil fired stream plant Combined cycle gas turbine Micro combined heat and power Nuclear Hydropower Tidal power Onshore wind Offshore wind Land-fill gases Municipal incineration Biomass, field and forest crops plus waste straw Import Hydro pumped storage Electrochemical storage Diesel 1* fuel availability 2* price stability of fuel 3* by-product acceptability 4* grid services 5* technological obsolescence 6* knowledge base 7* life of the installation 8* maintenance requirement 9* infrastructure requirements

1* 3 2 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 3 5 5

2* 1 1 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

3* 1 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 3 4 4

4* 5 5 4 4 5 3 2 2 2 1 3 3

5* 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 3 4 4

6* 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4

7* 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 4 3 4 4 4

8* 3 3 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 3

9* 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 2 4 4

Index 22 25 29 29 32 39 38 38 38 28 36 36

1 2

1 1

5 5 4 1

1 5 4 1

5 5 4 4

5 5 4 5

5 5 4 3

5 5 4 4

5 2 5 4

33 32 29 25


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5. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES AND INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVES The industrial development strategy gives priority to the rehabilitation of the major industrial areas with respect to improvement of infrastructure such as roads, water supply, power supply, sewer systems and other factors. This strategy also takes into consideration the importance of incorporating the environmental dimension into economic development plans. However, the relationship between environmental policies and industrial competitiveness has not been adequately examined. For the near future, the real issue concerns the effectiveness of environmental expenditures in terms of reduction of pollution emissions per unit of output. A number of issues relevant to this central concern are presented as follows:

(1) Implementing Ecologically Sustainable Industrial Development Strategies Agenda 21 for achieving sustainable development in the 21st century calls on governments to adopt National Strategies (NS) for sustainable development that ‘‘build on and harmonise the various sectoral, social and environmental policies that are operating in the country’’ [7]. NS focuses almost exclusively on development issues and does not integrate industrial and environmental concerns. It does not consider industrial specific environmental objectives or time frames for achieving them. Moreover, it does not specify how specific industrial subsectors and plants will meet environmental objectives. Finally, it is formulated with minimal involvement of industrial institutions and private sector associations. To bring together industrial development and environmental objectives it is necessary to: • • •

Establish environmental goals and action plans for the industrial sector. Develop an appropriate mix of policy instruments that support the goals of those plans. Design appropriate monitoring and enforcement measurements to realise those goals.

(2) Applying Cleaner Production Processes and Techniques Traditional approaches to pollution reduction have been based on the application of end of pipe technologies in order to meet discharge standards. However, the growing recognition that reduction at source is a potentially more cost effective method of abatement is resulting in replacing end of pipe technologies with cleaner production processes. Major constraints in adopting cleaner production methods relate to: • • •

Lack of awareness about the environmental and financial benefits of cleaner production activities. Lack of information about techniques and technologies. Inadequate financial resources to purchase imported technologies.

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A coordinated effect by industry, government and international organisations can go a long way in overcoming these constraints. In this context key questions that need to be addressed are as follows: (a) Need for local capacity building, information dissemination, training and education. (b) Need for subsectoral demonstration projects. (c) Need for increased cooperation with environmental market sectors in developed countries. (d) Need for life cycle analysis and research on environmentally compatible products.

(3) Implementing Environmental Management Systems Environmental management systems (EMSs) are necessary to enable plant to achieve and demonstrate sound environmental performance by controlling the environmental impact of their activities, products and services. The basic tools to ensure compliance with national and/or international requirements and continually improve its environmental performance include: • • •

Environmental auditing. Environmental reporting, and Environmental impact assessments.

In addition, the adoption of EMS may require extensive training of corporate staff. A practical and effective means of doing this is through the design and support of joint capacity strengthening programmes by industry association and bilateral and multilateral agencies.

(4) Managing and Conserving Water Resources It is estimated that by year 2025, there will be a global crisis in water resources. Accelerated growth of industry will lead to increase in industrial water use. Moreover, major industrial water pollutant load is expected to increase considerably in the near future. Therefore, to better manage water resources by industry, there is a real need for integrating demand trend and use patterns. The main elements of an industrial management strategy can be identified as follows: • • •

Analytical services. Promotional services. Services for the development of industry and water supply infrastructure.


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(5) Using Market Based Instruments (MBIs) to Internalise Environmental Costs As complements to command and control measures for resource conservation and pollution prevention in industry. MBIs represent a useful and efficient cost effective policy measures that internalise environmental costs. A plant’s decision to invest in clean production depends primarily on the following factors: (a) Relative costs of pollution control in overall production costs. (b) Price elasticities of supply and demand for intermediary and final goods, and (c) Competitive position of plant in a particular industrial sector.

(6) Counteracting Threats from Eco-labelling Requirements The increasing export orientation of production makes it necessary to maintain competitive position in world markets. The emergence of a wide variety of eco-labelling requirements and lack of timely information on multitude of scheme may adversely affect certain export sectors. Needed initiatives to counteracting perceived threats could be presented as follows: • • • •

Information dissemination. Life cycle analysis. Establishing certification centres. Infrastructure support.

(7) Implementing the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change The UN climate change convention entered into force on 21st March 1994. The convention objective is the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at safe levels. For industry, responding to this convention will undoubtedly be a major challenge. Industry will be directly affected. Anyone has to contribute to the common goal of reducing greenhouse gases emissions by taking precautionary measures to mitigate causes and anticipate impacts of climate change. However, there may not be adequate means to do so, and this will therefore require international assistance. The main requirements are: •

• •

Access to best energy-efficient technologies available on the world market, where such technologies are relevant to our natural resources endowments, our industrial requirements and are cost effective. Building an energy-efficient capital stock by accelerating the development of low energy intensity processes and equipment. Strengthening national capabilities for energy-efficient design and manufacturing.

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Abdeen Mustafa Omer Areas where technical expertise to implement the convention is necessary include: •

• • •

•

Preparing national communications on greenhouse gas emissions. The communications are supported to contain an assessment of the magnitudes and sources of greenhouse gases as well as identification of reduction methods. Supporting technology transfer for improvement in the efficiency of fuel based power generation. Promotion technology transfer for the use of renewable sources of energy such as biomass, wind, solar, hydro, etc. Developing and implementing technology transfer for energy efficiency programmes in industry, in complementarities with cleaner production/pollution prevention measures. Analysing the impact of climate change response measures on the economic and industrial development of the country, with the view to identifying economically viable technology options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the production and consumption of energy.

(8) Addressing Concerns of Small and Medium Scale Industry (SMI) Small and medium scale enterprises not only contribute to productivity growth and employment but are also important as collective sources of localised pollution loading such as organic wastes in water effluent, as well as hazardous wastes, heavy metal sludge, solvents, waste oils, acidic and alkaline wastes, photo wastes, etc. Often, these wastes are disposed of in unsafe manure and are extremely difficult to monitor. The cost of control in relation to output is too high, so even a modest increase in the costs (of environmental regulations) may threaten prevention and control may be well known and easily available, there is no guarantee that they will be adopted. Moreover, even when policy measures are in place, their enforcement and monitoring is a real problem for SMI sector on account of their large numbers and diversity. It is clear that environment problems of SMIs require special attention and special measures to address their particular problems.

6. POLICY DEVELOPMENT The non-technical issues, which have recently gained attention include: • • • •

Environmental and ecological factors e.g., carbon sequestration, reforestation and revegetation. Biomass as CO2 neutral replacement for fossil fuels. Greater recognition of the importance of renewable energy, particularly modern biomass energy carriers, at the policy and planning levels. Greater recognition of the difficulties of gathering good and reliable renewable energy data, and efforts to improve it.

Energy, Water and Sustainable Development • •

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Studies on the detrimental health efforts of renewable energy particularly from traditional energy users. Greater awareness of the need to internalise the externality cost of conventional energy carriers to place them on more equal terms with alternative energy sources.

7. WATER AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTS The limited water resources and increased demands to cope with the rapid development, it is paramount to inaugurate strategies that control this valuable resource through augmentation and conservation measures. Such measures essentially include rationalisation of water use, minimising losses, quality protection, exploration, artificial recharge and water harvesting techniques. A schematic technological advancement of low cost water supply systems such as dug wells, roof top catchments, haffirs and small dams combined with development of guidelines for settlement policy will hopefully lead to an improvement of water supply systems, water quality and reduction of the distance to the supply points. In the past decade, sustainability has increasingly become a key concept and ultimate global for socio-economic development in the modern world. Without a doubt, the sustainable development and management of natural resources fundamentally control the survival and welfare of human society. Water is an indispensable component and resource for life and essentially all human activities rely on water in a direct or in direct way. Yet supplying water of sufficient quantity and safe quality has seldom been an easy task. Although sustainability is still a loosely defined and evolving concept, researchers and policy-makers have made tremendous efforts to develop a working paradigm and measurement system for applying this concept in the exploitation, utilisation and management of various natural resources. In water resources arena, recent development has been synthesised and presented in two important documents published by ASCE [8] and UNESCO [9], which attempt to give a specific definition and a set of criteria for sustainable water resource systems. When considering the long-term future as well as the present, sustainability is concept and goal that can only be specified and implemented over a range of spatial scales, of which urban water supply is a local problem with great reliance on the characteristics and availability of regional water resources. Water resources plans are developed to guide future decisions and are to be developed for each river basin and state, as well as the country. The objective is to coordinate efforts and establish guidelines and priorities for water allocation and water pricing. The priorities established for water allocation will be used in critical drought conditions. Water pricing is the single most controversial instrument of the law. The pricing system is also the most difficult step to implement. The pricing system recognises the economic value of water, as stated in the principles of the policy. The development of a new, modern, and complete water resources information system is one of the basic needs for the implementation of the water resources management system. The decision process in drought or flood conditions, and also in overexploitation cases, can only be correct if based on a reliable information system. A complete and comprehensive database on water availability, users, water quality monitoring, current technologies (like geographical information systems), is certainly the way to produce an efficient framework for decision-making. Lack of information is one of the most critical

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points regarding the development and implementation of the new management system. The institutional framework provides the basis by which all actions are taken, and an assessment of its functional character helps determine the collaborative potential. The resulting criteria for measuring a given community’s institutional capacity can be found in Table 7. Table 7. Capacity assessment for flood management: institutional factors High capacity (plans etc., in places)

• • • • • •

Medium capacity (evidence of activity ongoing)

• • • • • •

Low capacity (no formalisation in place nor apparently evolving)

• • • • • •

Basin-wide management plan has been drafted. Natural mitigation strategy in place. Basin-wide coordination and communications strategy instituted. Trained emergency management staff coordinating at the regional level. Effective regulatory policies that address floodplain occupancy. Decentralised decision-making with a high degree of local autonomy. Evidence of an updated national response plan. Bilateral response agreements. Evidence of regional preparedness and response training. Some trained emergency management staff at the local and/or national level. Evidence of some regulatory policies designed to address floodplain occupancy. Attempts to decentralise decision-making, moderate local discretion. No existing flood response plan. No evidence of mitigation-related activities. Poor local-and national- level coordination and communications. Little or no evidence of flood preparedness and response training. No regulatory policies addressing floodplain occupancy. Centralised decision-making, no evidence of local autonomy.

8. CONCLUSIONS There is strong scientific evidence that the average temperature of the earth’s surface is rising. This was a result of the increased concentration of carbon dioxide and other GHGs in the atmosphere as released by burning fossil fuels. This global warming will eventually lead to substantial changes in the world’s climate, which will, in turn, have a major impact on human life and the built environment. Therefore, effort has to be made to reduce fossil energy use and to promote green energies, particularly in the building sector. Energy use reductions can be achieved by minimising the energy demand, by rational energy use, by recovering heat and the use of more green energies. The study was a step towards achieving this goal. The adoption of green or sustainable approaches to the way in which society is run is seen as an important strategy in finding a solution to the energy problem. The key factors to reducing and controlling CO2, which is the major contributor to global warming, are the use of


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alternative approaches to energy generation and the exploration of how these alternatives are used today and may be used in the future as green energy sources. Even with modest assumptions about the availability of land, comprehensive fuel-wood farming programmes offer significant energy, economic and environmental benefits. These benefits would be dispersed in rural areas where they are greatly needed and can serve as linkages for further rural economic development. The nations as a whole would benefit from savings in foreign exchange, improved energy security, and socio-economic improvements. With a nine-fold increase in forest – plantation cover, the nation’s resource base would be greatly improved. The international community would benefit from pollution reduction, climate mitigation, and the increased trading opportunities that arise from new income sources. The non-technical issues, which have recently gained attention, include: (1) Environmental and ecological factors e.g., carbon sequestration, reforestation and revegetation. (2) Renewables as a CO2 neutral replacement for fossil fuels. (3) Greater recognition of the importance of renewable energy, particularly modern biomass energy carriers, at the policy and planning levels. (4) Greater recognition of the difficulties of gathering good and reliable renewable energy data, and efforts to improve it. (5) Studies on the detrimental health efforts of biomass energy particularly from traditional energy users.

REFERENCES [1] [2] [3] [4]

[5] [6] [7] [8] [9]

United Nations. World urbanisation project: the 1999 revision. New York: The United Nations Population Division. 2001. Steele J. Sustainable architecture: principles, paradigms, and case studies. New York: McGraw-Hill Inc; 1997. Sitarz D, editor. Agenda 21: The Earth Summit Strategy to save our planet. Boulder, CO: Earth Press; 1992. Commission of the European Communities. Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply. Green Paper, COM (2000) 769, Brussels, 29 November 2000. Gheorghe A., and Nicolet-Monnier M. Integrated regional risk assessment. Vols I and II, Kluwer academic, Dordrecht. 1995. DECADES Project on comparative assessment of various energy systems. IAEA, Vienna. 1997. UNIDO. Changing courses sustainable industrial development, as a response to Agenda 21, Vienna. 1997. ASCE Task Committee on sustainability criteria, Sustainability criteria for water resource systems, Reston, Virginia, USA: ASCE, 1998. UNESCO Working Group M.IV, Sustainability criteria for water resource systems, Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 1999.



Chapter 7

REPRESENTATIONS AND BEHAVIOURS OF FARMERS WITH REGARD TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: A PSYCHO-ENVIRONMENTAL APPROACH Elisabeth Michel-Guillou1* and Karine Weiss2† 1

Center for Psychological Research, University of Bretagne Occidentale, Brest (France) 2 Laboratory of Environmental Psychology, University of Paris-Descartes, BoulogneBillancourt (France)

ABSTRACT Agriculture is linked to specific uses of ecological resources and has a considerable impact on the evolution of the state of the environment. Consequently, it represents an essential ecological issue in the framework of sustainable development. The fertilization techniques currently employed and intensive practices which weaken the soil may lead to durable or even irreversible environmental damage. In this context, environmental psychology investigates environmental representations and farming practices, as well as their evolution, in order to identify the factors most likely to support changes towards sustainable development. In this chapter, we will show why farmers’ representations of the environment do not have much impact on their practices: paradoxically, although they are directly implicated in the state of their environment, their representation contains very little reference to ecological values. Furthermore, their perceptions of the environment do not seem to affect their behavioural choices. Indeed, whether the farmers adopt favourable practices or not towards the environment, their representation remains basically identical. Thus, their conception of the environment does not determine their choice with regard to possible changes in their practices. We will then stress how farmers’ representation of their own professional activities is explicative of their relationships with their environment, and consequently of their * †

[email protected] [email protected]

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Elisabeth Michel-Guillou and Karine Weiss behaviours. The modification of cultural practices is commonly linked to the commitment of farmers to so-called "pro-environmental" actions. In fact, this commitment appears to be more reasoned by the need to restore a positive social image of their profession than by the need to preserve a threatened natural environment. Consequently, the representations of the profession can be used in order to implicate the farmers and thus increase awareness and personal implication towards environmental problems.

INTRODUCTION Since the Brundtland report (1987), followed by the Rio conference (1992), people refer more and more to the concept of sustainable development. This is the expression of an increasing concern for the environment, as well as for economic and social questions linked to globalization and to development inequalities. “A sustainable environment involves the protection of natural wealth, the controlled consumption of non-renewable resources, the controlled emission of contaminant agents, the maintenance of biological diversity, the health of the inhabitants, and the preservation of flora and fauna” (Uzzell, Pol & Badenas, 2002, p. 27). The objectives of thinking and planning in terms of sustainability are to allow the development of human activities while reconciling this with the preservation of the environment, economic effectiveness and social equity. Public and institutional preoccupations, in addition to numerous other circumstances, including environmental alerts, have enhanced the social value of sustainable development (Pol, 2003). However, even if this concept has gained the support of the main part of the population, it appears that individual behaviours are difficult to obtain. An inadequacy between institutional efforts and the desired answers is observed, because the immediate objectives, the strategies and the orientation of the actions are specific to places and to populations (Pol, 2003). Thus, people can be aware of environmental concerns and be positive with regard to associated programs, but they won’t necessarily provide the expected efforts in terms of environmental preservation. Environmental psychology points out these difficulties and seeks to identify and understand the factors that can influence the motivations or, on the contrary, the reluctance to adopt new behaviours, and more specifically new behaviours related to environmental protection. In this chapter, after a short presentation of the environmental psychology approach to sustainable development, we will focus on environmental representations and farming practices, as well as their evolution, in order to identify the factors most likely to support changes towards sustainable development.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY FRAMEWORK Environmental psychology is defined through the study of well-being and human behaviour linked to physical and social environments, in its spatial and temporal dimensions (Legendre, 2005; Moser, 2003; Stokols & Altman, 1987). In order to explain peopleenvironment transactions or interrelations, environmental psychology takes into account the physical and objective characteristics of places, as well as the influence of individual and

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social factors such as representations, values, attitudes or group membership (Canter & Craik, 1981). It aims to identify the processes that regulate this relationship. Moser & Uzzell (2003) summarize the definition of environmental psychology as follows: it “studies individuals and groups in their physical and social context, by giving a prominent place to environmental perceptions, attitudes, evaluations and representations, and accompanying behaviour. Environmental psychology focuses on both the effects of environmental conditions on behaviour and how the individual perceives and acts on the environment” (ibid., p.4).

The Complexity of People-environment Relationships In a “psychology of sustainable development” perspective (Schultz & Schmuck, 2002), various models have attempted to highlight factors which could influence the motivation or the reluctance to adopt new behaviours. However, the different areas of analysis, such as the many tools used to measure the factors which might play a role in the commitment with regard to actions to preserve the environment, show that ecological behaviours do not depend on simple deterministic reasoning (Ratiu, 2003). The difficulty in explaining behavioural changes or resistance to change is linked to the complexity of people-environment interactions. The environmental psychology approach, in taking into account peopleenvironment transactions, reveals this complexity through the study of social and cultural dimensions which mediate the perception, the evaluation and the attitude of individuals with regard to their physical environment (Moch & Moser, 1997). Some factors, such as individual and social competencies and resources (e.g., level of development, financial resources), environmental and social uncertainty (e.g., perception of others’ behaviours, presence of active minorities, possibilities of actions) interact and are linked to specific relationships with the environment. Uncertainty is also linked to the local/global dichotomy, which causes real difficulties for the comprehension of perceptions and attitudes linked to environmental phenomena and subsequent individual behaviours. Graumann & Kruse (1990) demonstrate, for example, how difficult or even impossible it is for people to directly perceive the state of the environment and its evolution: it is generally characterized by uncertainty, both from a perceptive and a cognitive point of view. On one hand, humans are physiologically unable to identify some kinds of pollutions (e.g., nuclear, ozone), and on the other hand, the perception of some environmental transformations (e.g., climatic changes) is impossible at a human scale, because of the slow rate of change. This is why most of the studies focus on local individual behaviours, forsaking a more global level (Bonnes & Bonaiuto, 2002). This is one of the paradoxes of the research on sustainable development: it reveals local and limited behaviours and the conditions of their appearance, when what is at stake is the future of the world. This paradox reflects precisely the difficulty, for people, to link these two levels, local and global, as well as the immediate and long-term consequences of their behaviours. However, it seems that people are more concerned by global environmental problems than by local ones (Uzzell, 2000). Even at a local level, an important uncertainty exists, concerning the quantity and the quality of the available resources. For instance, people’s beliefs about the state of the environment have a greater influence on their perception of water quality than objective features (Moser, 1984). In the same way, farmers are more aware of pollution if the level is shown to be low or very high, but they deny it exits if the level is average (Michel-Guillou, 2005).

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Uncertainty is often linked to a lack of knowledge, but also to a perceptive illusion, the “big pool illusion”: people tend to perceive resources as everlasting, or at least as more available than they really are (Gärling, Biel & Gustafson, 2002). This illusion of the invariability of resources appears to be true because most of the time, individuals cannot experience for themselves the consequences of their behaviours on the scarcity of resources: these consequences are non-direct, uncertain, unclear, and/or at spatial and local distance scales (Geller, 2002). In addition, it has been shown (de Vanssay et al., 1997) that in a situation of economic precariousness, people do not consider the environment as a whole and thus they cannot think about it at a global level. This localized view of environmental questions also corresponds to a limited time scale, and makes it difficult to think and act for the future. Moreover, the time scale is culturally determined: to every social form of life corresponds a specific structure of time (Douglas & Wildavsky, 1983). The more the history of a society is ancient, the more its level of cohesion is high, and the more its members can envisage their life in the long-term: “the social past and the social future are like a balance: if one is long, the other must be just as long; if the future is to be heavy, the past must be equally so” (ibid., p.87). The perception of the future is thus socially differentiated and influences perceptions of the environment. Precariousness would not allow people to think about future generations, and on the contrary, people are more capable of considering future environmental issues when they live with material and economic security, which would ensure them of some serenity for their future. Indeed, the perception of the consequences of behaviours for future generations seems to play a role in individual decisions and practices. The distance from the environmental problem plays a similar role and these two sets of variables act together to moderate the perception of environmental problems. These differences in the perception of the future are linked to environmental conceptions which are sometimes at opposite poles. Institutional authorities have to take these differences into account because if they are acting within a long-term perspective, from a sustainable development point of view, this would sometimes not be adapted to the environmental perception of the population. To summarize, the comprehension of how people perceive and judge environmental problems can facilitate the decisions and planning strategies concerning sustainable development.

The Social Representations Approach People-environment relationships can be considered not only in terms of direct and mutual influences but also in terms of indirect influences. These indirect influences result from representations which are linked to these relationships beyond physical and objective aspects of environment. Social representations do not correspond to an objective representation of reality but to a social construct of a common reality (Jodelet, 1999; Moscovici, 1988, 1998, 2001). They are social because they are the product and the reflection of a social process, and they are shared by individuals belonging to the same group. Thus, social representations constitute the public image of the members of a specific group. They provide the group members with their specificity and identity. They correspond to a specific form of knowledge conveyed by society which allows individuals to understand their environment and construct a meaningful reality (Abric, 2001b). According to Moscovici (1976), two main functions are linked to social representations: they contribute both “to the


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processes of formation of behaviours, and to the orientation of social communications” (ibid., p.75). Furthermore, the representational process develops in a particular context of social interaction (Doise, 1985). Therefore, the representations are highly linked to context: their signification depends on the context in which they occur, i.e. the immediate context, and their elaboration depends on the context in which they circulate, i.e. the social and ideological context (Abric, 2001a). Thus, the analysis of these representations consitutes on one hand a necessary basis to apprehend the norms, beliefs and values of groups and, on the other hand, a useful tool in order to understand the practices linked to the environment. According to the cultural theory (Douglas & Wildavsky, 1983), values and beliefs are at the root of conceptions of nature and the environment, which, in turn, generate some preferences for a strategy with regard to environmental problems. So, this link between practices and representations depends on the context in which individuals evolve in so far as society influences their ways of thinking. In this sense, representations can be subjected to individual variability (Doise, 1985). Thus, social representations provide individuals with common points of reference. But according to the importance of the object of representation for people, and according to their social integration, individual standpoints towards the object will vary. Consequently, understanding the various representations between the given actors allows us to identify the different ways of managing and reacting to environmental issues, and the subsequent potential conflicts.

AGRICULTURE, AN IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sustainable development involves a transformation of the current means of environmental exploitation, ecosystems management, and goods production. Through its intensive modes of production, through its function of providing food, and through its specific use of ecological resources, agriculture is one of the main fields concerned by the question of sustainable development. In Europe, since the end of World War II, the necessities of feeding the population and of remaining competitive at an international level have encouraged farmers to produce more and at a lower cost. Agriculture has had to provide for society and has expanded in consequence. The use of treatment and fertilization products for plants and animals has developed. Furthermore, at the beginning of the 60’s, a Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was introduced (1962) to ensure food security and to modernize agriculture at the European level (Perraud, 2003). The increase in productivity has led to a rise in overproduction problems. These problems have consequences in terms of competition between farmers (i.e., each farmer has to continuously produce more in order to become more competitive than his neighbour) and in terms of selection of farms (i.e., productivity forces farmers to extend the land suitable for cultivation; the farms increase in size to the detriment of small family farms) (Lémery, 2003). Agriculture also has an impact on the environment. The increase in productivity has led to physical alterations of the countryside, such as the levelling of banks, the removal of hedges and the draining of wet zones which, twenty years later, have proved to be dramatic

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for the ecosystem. In France, we had to wait until the 90s to see environmental issues and questions about the system of agricultural production raised. At the same time, while various pro-environmental actions spread, agriculture had to face a major problem which would entail an irreversible mutation of the relationship between agriculture and society: in March 1996, the transmissibility of BSE1 (« Mad cow » disease) to humans was announced by the media. This phenomenon triggered a process of doubts and controversies regarding the system of agricultural production. Since the “mad cow crisis”, media pressure has increased and has continuously denounced the consequences of unscrupulous agricultural practices (e.g., foot-and-mouth disease, water and soil pollution, GMO). These controversies have significantly changed the context of agricultural activity. The image of agriculture has been tarnished and intensive production has been definitively called into question. French consumers have become mistrustful and demand more openness in agricultural practices. Although farming is only one cause among many of certain environmental problems, its role and responsibilities have clearly come to the forefront of public debate (Kalaora, 1997; Katerji, Bruckler, & Debaeke, 2002). The identity crisis has triggered a split in the profession which is now divided between a negative vision and an optimistic one, between a modern agriculture and a traditional one (Lémery, 2003). The aim of this review is to show the consequences and the issues of agricultural development during the last fifty years. This development has triggered problems at a social level (e.g., fall in the numbers of farmers), at an economic level (e.g., grants instead of income), and at an ecological level regarding the degradation of natural resources. Consequently, agriculture is indeed directly concerned by sustainable development. Applied to the agriculture field, this concept supposes a transformation of the modes of production in order to ensure economic viability of farms and, at the same time, to protect the environment and to preserve social equity. But there is a gap between what is recommended and what is really observed in terms of farming practices: if a genuine awareness of environmental issues is undeniable among the farming population, evolutions in individual behaviours seem difficult. In the following sections, we will show why farmers’ representations of the environment do not have much impact on their practices.We will then underline the importance of farmers’ representations of their own professional activity which seems to be more related to the adoption of pro-environmental practices than their representations of the environment, particularly with regard to perceptions of the need to preserve a threatened natural environment. Finally, we will consider other aspects which could play a role in the ecological commitment of these environmental actors, and the adoption of practices in favour of sustainable development. Within this framework, the question of the relevance of an individual approach in comparison with a collective approach will be discussed.

1

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy.


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SOCIAL REPRESENTATIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES Agriculture is based on a continuous process of intervention and modification of nature; its functioning depends on the environment and the preservation of its quality, while at the same time this functioning leads to transformations of the environment and inevitably damages it. This is why the study of social representations of the environment can be a relevant approach to understanding the people-environment relationships in the framework of farming. The social representation of the environment is in complete evolution. For farmers, the environment has always been a part of their day-to-day practices but nowadays, the relationships between agriculture and environment are evolving2. Farmers, who are seen as “nature’s gardeners” (Thiébaut, 1994), are held more and more responsible for the environment. Agricultural practices towards landscape management or the protection of natural resources have been very controversial for a number of years; they were called into question with the CAP in 1992, and consequently, they have sometimes changed in favour of a greater respect for the environment. This has led to a progressive transformation of the social representation. In this context, we can distinguish two kinds of practices according to the voluntary proenvironmental commitment or non commitment of farmers, in other words, according to the farmers’ adherence or non adherence to officially referenced and checked actions in favour of the environment. This categorization allowed us to distinguish farmers who adopt “proenvironmental practices” from farmers who maintain “traditional practices”. The traditional farmers may in fact adopt certain environmentally respectful behaviours but, in contrast with pro-environmental farmers, they do not commit to actions that promote a sustainable development perspective, as defined by the actions that are officially indexed and socially recognized. For example, the following actions are taken into account : “Organic farming”, consisting of avoiding chemical substances and using organic animal feed almost exclusively; “Integrated farming”, guaranteeing product quality while reducing quantities of chemical substances used; “Charter quality systems”, in which farmers undertake to conform to set standards protective of the environment and of the health quality of their products; “Local groups”, focusing on locally targeted actions of environmental protection (e.g., protection of the wildlife, group of cynegetic interests, etc.). The social representation of the environment in agriculture is linked to the question of the respect of the natural environment (Michel-Guillou, 2006; Michel-Guillou & Moser, 2006), and particularly to the shared belief of the need to protect a threatened natural environment. This consensus amongst farmers concerning their representation makes it difficult to conclude that the adoption of pro-environmental farming practices is specifically related to ideologies that promote respect for the environment. This universe of the social representation acts on an organizing principle which gives farmers some common points of reference. But, as farmers have various practices, this system generates differences between individuals (Clémence, Doise, & Lorenzi-Cioldi, 1994). Thus 2

In the pragmatic relationship between agriculture and the environment, or in the view that the society has of this relationship which involves an evolution of agricultural practices and attitudes (Thiébaut, 1994).

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according to their actual farming practices, farmers define the environment either as a necessary element of their profession oras a link with the quality of production, which is declared to be the main function of their profession. In the first case, farmers are principally committed to pro-environmental action, and they stress that their work consists in looking after the natural surroundings and preserving the environment for future generations. In the second case, they are more involved in traditional practices, and they point out that the environment is linked to the quality of the production, in other words to the need to provide products which meet consumers’ requirements. Furthermore, farmers committed to pro-environmental action evoke more often the expression “Integrated agriculture”3 in relation to the environment than farmers who maintain traditional practices. Instead of “integrated agriculture”, the latter prefer to talk about the notion of “protection”, a term with a more general, pragmatic connotation. Moreover, the evocation of “pollution” seems more important in the representation of “pro-environmental” farmers than in the representation of “traditional” farmers. Quite obviously, awareness of all forms of pollution appears to be more prevalent for farmers who adopt pro-environmental practices than for farmers who are still engaged in traditional practices. Each type of practice (pro-environmental vs. traditional) infers different references, specific for some farmers and conversely, normative or of common sense for the others. In the group which has a specific practice towards the environment; a functional dimension of the representation is more particularly activated; in the group without specific practices towards the environment, a normative dimension, referring to norms or ideological positions, is predominant (Abric, 2001b). However, we cannot say that a more important environmental awareness exists for some farmers which could explain the commitment to pro-environmental action. Conversely, this awareness might be conceived as a rationalization of their action (Joule & Beauvois, 1998). Most of the farmers justify their commitment by strictly egocentric reasons such as improving their economic profitability or their public image. Indeed, enhancing their public image seems to act as a powerful determinant of pro-environmental commitment (Michel-Guillou & Moser, 2006). Farmers suppose that if they commit themselves to these actions, they will be perceived less as “polluters”. Consequently, this can explain why the farmers who maintain traditional practices seem more deeply affected by the image of “farmer-polluter” than the farmers committed to pro-environmental action. This image is mainly due to the particular relationship that exists between farming and the environment, especially with water, and the impact that farming has on this resource. The media coverage of the problems of water pollution and the attribution of a major responsibility to farmers are important (Katerji et al., 2002). The mass media want to inform and to heighten public awareness of environmental problems. But for farmers, the converse effect is observed. Most of the farmers recognize that there is a problem of water pollution, and 64% think it is a really worrying question. However, this percentage is not as high as it should because some farmers deny the existence of this kind of problem. This attitude of denial is a strategy that aims to protect a positive image of their profession: these farmers do

3

In this case, this expression does not refer to the pro-environmental action (Integrated agriculture) but to an expression in fashion which indicates the new practices which take into account the needs of the environment and its natural resources.


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not identify with or do not want to be identified with the question of water and soil pollutions4. Even so, they feel denounced by the media and public opinion as polluters or people disrespectful towards the environment. This then makes them accuse other social groups, for instance professionals from the industrial sector, and on the other hand, justify their own behaviours by the necessity to make a profit. Thus, the farmers unanimously declare that the quality of the environment around their cultivated area (i.e., at a local level) is satisfactory. They consider that it is more deteriorated at a more global level: the further away from their area, the worse it would be (Weiss, Moser & Germann, 2006). This diagnosis is justified by a set of positive characteristics of the surroundings. By denying the question of water pollution, the farmers protect themselves from uncomfortable feelings of anxiety (Gardner & Stern, 1996) with regard to a social and environmental situation judged hard to control. And it is not really the question of the preservation of the water resource which is judged difficult to control, but it is more the social and media situation with which they are confronted (for example,, 70% of the farmers questioned consider that the issue is given bad coverage). Thus, conversely to some studies (Kaiser & Shimoda, 1999), the attribution of responsibility cannot explain the attitudes of farmers towards water. Furthermore, the relationships between individuals and water take place at a level of inter-group relationships or at an ideological level (Doise, 1980, 1982); so the explanation in terms of responsibility can not be sufficient. As we pointed out before, the representation of the environment also refers to the definition of the profession. Consequently, the problem is not only the question of the denunciation of “bad agricultural practices”; the definition and the role of the farming profession are also called into question. As a reaction against this, farmers quite obviously act more for the protection and the defence of their profession than for the preservation of the environment. In this case, the environment is not only perceived as natural surroundings to be respected but also as a personal and economic resource to be preserved (Weiss, Moser & Germann, 2006).

THE PROFESSIONAL REPRESENTATION AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT If knowledge about environmental representations and perceptions is crucial for the comprehension of pro-environmental behaviours, other kinds of representations have to be taken into account. For instance, people who are working directly in relation with the environment consider the ecological question as highly related to the representation of their profession and its evolution. Recent research (Michel-Guillou, 2006; Michel-Guillou & Moser, 2006; Weiss et al., 2006) has shown that the representation that farmers have of their profession determines their behaviours and the acceptance of new practices more than their representation of the environment. Subsequently, the evolution of their profession constitutes for them an important motivation. Taking this factor into account allows us to understand behavioural responses and their immediate consequences, which is more concrete than 4

Quotation from a farmer who replied to a question about the main worrying matters for him: “I would like to say “water pollution” to you, but immediately, you are going to think: “it is agriculture which pollutes”. So, I’m sorry, but I shall not say it. Certainly, it is a problem, and I am quite aware of it”.

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reactions in terms of environmental consciousness. In the same way, the cohesion and social identity of local actors can also prove to be useful motivations in order to accept environmental politics and to act in favour of sustainable development (Uzzell et al., 2002). Professional characteristics seem to constitute a key factor in order to understand the relationships between farmers and their environment. When they are questioned about the ecological future, most of them actually answer about the future of their profession (Weiss et al., 2006). The professional representation is mainly centred around three referents that reflect a common knowledge of their own group (the farmers) concerning their occupation: its productive function, its necessary link with nature, and the current social context in which they find the expression of an unappreciated activity. These three dimensions seem to act as generative rules of the professional representation, which, in this way, would give farmers some common references, constituting their way of thinking about their work. On the basis of these generative rules, individual attitudes would be a function of the gravity of what was at stake and of the social insertion of the individuals (Clémence et al., 1994; Doise, 1985). These diverse attitudes towards the profession could be explained by the fact that the differences in terms of social insertion are more and more significant. Indeed, the modification of cultural practices is commonly related to the commitment of the farmers to “pro-environmental” efforts. As we pointed out before, this commitment appears to be more motivated by the necessity to regain a positive social image than by the need to preserve a threatened natural environment. The personal consciousness and implication towards environmental problems would then be a consequence, and not the cause, of this commitment to pro-environmental action. The farmers who maintain their traditional practices can accept the possibility of new behaviours in favour of sustainable development, but they are not committed to specific actions towards the environment. This is the main difference with the “pro-environmental” farmers, who are really aware of the effects of their own actions on the environment. These distinctive subgroups among the farmers could provide some explanations about the fact that they have different points of view and attitudes about their own profession. One reason is that belonging to these subgroups is related to various behaviours, which can be socially valued or not (Flament, 2001). The consecutive social image of the group can then be modified. For instance, it has been shown that the social image of agriculture could locally depend on the professional practices of the farmers. The interest that the farmers show for environmental efforts seems to be linked to this search for social approbation (Michel-Guillou & Moser, 2006). It might be thought that economic factors, such as income improvements, could play a key role in the farmers’ pro-environmental commitment, but this is not the case: they do not really pay attention to this aspect in the choice of their professional practices, whatever this choice is. On the contrary, the improvement of their social image, even more than environmental consciousness, could be perceived as a powerful determinant of the commitment. The possibilities of being able to defend their profession and to offer a positive image to the public constitute important motivations. This information has to be taken into account in order to get behavioural responses with more immediate and concrete consequences than the actions that could be obtained if we only focus on environmental consciousness. The modification of their practices has an impact on the control of their professional situation, and not on the control of the ecological one. The different possibilities of action which are linked to these attitudes, for instance immobility or individual behaviours, are then associated with the protection of the profession.


217

Because the relationships between farmers and their environment are determined by the demands of the profession, this professional dimension is predominant, and the environment then constitutes a personal and economic resource to be preserved and maintained, before constituting a natural space to be protected. Consequently, the actions concerning the defence of the profession, and in particular the preservation of social identity and cohesion, can have much more impact on the farmers’ choices than those concerning sustainable development (Weiss, Moser & Germann, 2006). Moreover, Stern and colleagues (Stern, 2000; Stern & Dietz, 1994) have shown that the attachment to egocentric values which are related to personal interests can generate a positive attitude towards the environment. This positive attitude can appear because the ecological behaviour finds its source in individual values as well as in specific beliefs about the consequences of environmental problems. The egocentric justification of the pro-environmental efforts of the farmers can not be denied: 43.5% of the farmers justify their efforts with some personal reasons like the improvement of their social image, the support of agricultural advisers, or economic profit. This proportion goes up to 61% if we add people who justify their behaviour at the same time with eco-centred reasons (i.e., protection of the environment and of natural resources) and human-centred ones (i.e., to allow the transmission of fertile land to future generations). It then seems that the interest people have for themselves as well as for the biosphere depends on a general attitude for the objects they value. In this case, the protection of a positive social image seems to be more important than the protection of the environment. Finally, the uncertainty which is linked to the professional future of farmers is widely linked to their perception of the uncertainty of the results of pro-environmental practices: those who are pessimistic for their professional future show a tendency to judge proenvironmental efforts as uncertain or not useful. On the contrary, those who have a more optimistic point of view consider that these efforts can be useful… for the future of their profession (and not for the environment)! The optimistic farmer is thus the most active and the only one who really considers new possibilities for action for his profession. He conceives pro-environmental practices as means for enhancing the value of his profession and defending his job by giving a positive image of agriculture. This image would be an essential element for the continuity of its economic development (Weiss, Moser & Germann, 2006).

CONCLUSION: WHICH OTHER FACTORS FOR AN ECOLOGICAL COMMITMENT? As a conclusion, we consider other aspects which could be taken into account in order to understand the ecological commitment of the various professions which act directly towards the ecosystems, and of the adoption of behaviours in favour of sustainable development. In this framework, we can have some doubts about the pertinence of an individual approach, because the study of personal factors (i.e., emotions, responsibility, values and individual knowledge, etc.) gives contradictory results in the field of sustainable development. Also, the comprehension of why people can modify or not their behaviours is often difficult because these changes call into question social values or even ideologies. A collective approach could be more adequate for the study of these complex questions.

218


Behaviours with regard to an environmental problem raise the question of a divergence between individual and collective behaviours: people can consider their own action as inefficient or insufficient regarding the intensity of the environmental problem, and this would limit the adoption of new behaviours (Uzzell, 1996). The difficulty of articulating private and collective interests on a large spatial and temporal scale has been patterned with the dilemma of common goods (Hardin, 1968; Thompson & Stoutemyer, 1991). The sense of community and the sense of responsibilities then play a primordial role in the decision process, particularly in a local context. We can hypothesize that pro-environmental commitment depends on ideological conceptions, which give value to both personal interests and the environment. This commitment would depend mainly on social pressures and its consequence would be an awareness of the gravity of environmental problems. As a result, farmers would evaluate better the impact of their practices and the possibilities of their actions. Furthermore, the integration of reasoned practices in farmers’ conception of the environment really shows that there is a strong effort to change their relationships with the environment. However, despite this social pressure, we can hypothesize that these actions in favour of sustainable development also depend on different ideologies. This would explain why some farmers decide to act with respect to the environment with diverse degrees of implication, while others do not. This could be related to the various ideological conceptions of nature (Poortinga, Steg, Vlek, 2002; Steg & Sievers, 2000). Consequently, a radical, moderate or weak commitment towards actions in favour of the environment would depend on the lifestyle of the farmers, in association with their conceptions of nature and of its resources (Douglas & Wildavsky, 1983). A conception of nature as epheremal, i.e. with degraded and precarious resources, would suppose both a high interest and a high environmental commitment. Conversely, a conception of nature as benign or capricious, corresponding to an under-evaluation or a denial of environmental problems, would lead to a very weak environmental commitment. The application of the cultural theory would help explain some differences which sometimes distinguish some farmers who belong to the same group, but who act in various ways (Michel-Guillou, 2006).

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Chapter 8

ADVANCES IN LASER REMOTE SENSING OF FORESTS Michael A. Wulder1, Christopher W. Bater2, Nicholas C. Coops2, Yasumasa Hirata3, and Tatsuo Sweda4 1

Canadian Forest Service (Pacific Forestry Center), Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada 2 Integrated Remote Sensing Studio, Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia. Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 3 Forest Conservation and Management Group, Shikoku Research Center Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute 2-915, Asakura-Nishimachi, Kochi, 780-8077, Japan 4 Department of Forest Resources Planning, Faculty of Agriculture, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Ehime Prefecture, Japan

ABSTRACT Remote sensing technology increases our capacity to characterize ecological phenomena and manage the landscape in a sustainable and appropriate manner. One key technology which has seen rapid adoption, and application, is LiDAR (light detection and ranging), which provides highly accurate information on vegetation and terrain height, increasing our ability to map and monitor canopy structure. Many key LiDAR developments have been presented at a series of annual international conferences held since 2002 . In this communication we summarize the most recent meeting and identify and describe key trends and findings in LiDAR remote sensing with focus on four key application areas; forest inventory, monitoring for reporting and treaty compliance, attribute estimation, including digital elevation models, and data fusion.

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Michael A. Wulder, Christopher W. Bater, Nicholas C. Coops et al.

INTRODUCTION Advances in the development of remote sensing systems are increasing our capacity to characterize ecological phenomena. Space-borne satellite systems are being launched with increasing regularity by a diversity of nations, consortia, and industrial agents, with high spatial resolution applications previously only possible using airborne imagery now routinely undertaken using commercially available image data. Concurrently airborne remote sensing systems have been refined to offer an increasing number of spectral channels to be collected over increasing swath widths, and digital camera technology has matured to enable increased predictability in radiometry and geometry, improving consistency for applications efforts, particularly in land management areas such as forestry. McGraw et al. (1998) described the state of high spatial resolution remote sensing of forests, capturing a breakthrough moment in the field with increasing scientific and operational interest combined with burgeoning capacity. The applications developments described a wide-range of approaches to understanding the information present and extractable from high spatial resolution imagery possible at that time (Hill and Leckie 1998). Since that meeting, developments have continued apace with ecological applications increasingly undertaken using high spatial resolution data (Wulder et al. 2004). In 2007 we believe we face a similar seminal time, with another critical remote sensing technology, LiDAR (light detection and ranging), which is increasingly being used by resource managers and remote sensing scientists alike, enhancing our ability to characterize forests with significantly increased levels of accuracy using airborne remote sensing platforms, and with the potential of extrapolating over large areas using sampling approaches. Conceptually similar to radar, lidar systems estimate distances between a sensor and a target based on half the elapsed time between a laser pulse emission and the detection of a reflected return. Lidar systems can be separated into two basic types: discrete return and waveform-recording (Lefsky et al. 2002; Lim et al. 2003). Discrete return sensors record single or multiple returns from a given laser pulse. As the laser signal is reflected back to the sensor, large peaks are interpreted to represent discrete objects in the path of the beam (e.g. the forest canopy, understorey, and ground). The sensor then records these peaks as discrete points in three-dimensional space. Alternatively, full waveform instruments have a higher sampling rate and record the full height distribution of the surfaces illuminated by the laser. Thus, within a forest canopy, discrete return instruments produce clouds of points representing intercepted surfaces, while full waveform sensors record the entire reflected signal for analysis (Lefsky et al. 2002). Generally, discrete return sensors use a small footprint (e.g. the laser’s circle of illumination on the ground) several decimetres in diameter, while waveform recording sensors employ a large footprint typically greater than 10 m in diameter (Table 1). Regardless of the type of system employed, lidar is capable of simultaneously mapping both vegetation height and vertical structure, and the underlying terrain’s morphology with high accuracy.

Advances in Laser Remote Sensing of Forests

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Table 1. An example of the specifications for the Optech ALTM 3100AE discrete return sensor, the Portable Airborne Laser System (PALS) laser profiler, the Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) airborne full waveform sensor, and the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) space-borne full waveform sensor GLAS Spaceborne Full Waveform Sensor ~600,0000

Specification

Optech 3100EA Airborne Discrete Return Scanner

PALS Airborne Laser Profiler

LVIS Airborne Full Waveform Sensor

Operating altitude (m)

80-3,500

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