Can we shift to the Solar Future? Beverley Thorpe, Clean Production Action presentation to Conamara Sea Week, Ireland 2006
Recognizing the Problem: Our economy based on coal, oil and gas responsible for CO2 build up
Burgeoning economies of China and India building new coal plants
• Planet‟s overall temperature warmest in 12,000 years • Gloal temperature has gone up by 0.7 degrees C in a hundred years • Precipitation has increased globally • Sea levels have risen • 2003 was the hottest summer in Europe for 500 years
• “Global temperature today is about six degrees warmer than it was during the last ice age. The projections for this century are for a warming of a third to a half of that again. But instead of the increase taking place over thousands of years it is set to take place over a hundred years. This will impact climate extremes such as the intensity of cyclones, storms, floods and droughts. ” » Dave Griggs, Director, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK
Species will need to adapt or…. • The last half of the 20th century, 1,700 plant, animal and insect species are moving pole-ward at an average rate of about 4 miles per decade to seek the lower temperatures they are accustomed to.
Arctic sea ice reduced by 40% since the 1960s • Canadian Arctic could be ice-free in the summer months by 2050 (give or take 30 years) • Polar bears are 15% thinner than 30 years ago; population drop of 27% in the last ten years • Permafrost melting
Sea levels rising
How high could sea levels rise? If all of Greenland‟s ice were to melt sea levels would rise by about 7 metres. If West Antarctica‟s were to go that would add another 6 metres. Even a 1 metre rise would cause serious problems for coastal cities such as London and New York, not to mention the milions of people living by the coast in countries such as Bangladesh. - The Economist
Gulf Stream prediction: 2 in 3 chance of „shut down‟ over the next 200 years
“it‟s unlikely to switch off within the next 100 years but how unlikely we‟re not sure” – D Griggs, Hadley Research Centre
• 8,000 years ago the Gulf Stream „packed up‟ possibly caused when melting Canadian icesheets drained into the North Atlantic diluting its salinity and thus weakening its flow. • Climate approached ice age conditions for 400 years before returning to conditions similar to today • Hadley Research Centre anticipates 50% slow down over the next century
Stopping the Current Harm
Carbon Capture and Storage
Oil industry and profits • US Commuters spent $60 billion on gasoline in 2004. • Combined profits of Exxon-Mobil, Chevron-Texaco, Conoco-Phillips increased from $33 Billion in 2003 to $64 Billion two years later
“Who killed the electric car?” • California‟s Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate:10% of all cars emission free by 2003 • EV1cars: 120 miles per charge • 2003 the Bush administration joined automakers in lawsuit against ZEV mandate
October 2006: Green paper released By 2020: energy efficiency boosted by 20% Ban on nuclear will remain 2020 goal: 30% renewables generation capacity (2004: only 4%) GOVERNMENT SEEKING COMMENTS WITHIN NEXT TWO MONTHS
Sources of bio-energy • • • • •
methane gas (landfills, sewage plants) Wet wastes (abbatoirs, food processing) Dry agricultural by-products (corn stover) Municipal mixed wastes (digestors) Forestry byproducts (sawmills, forestry) » Wood pellet stoves, combined heat and power plants
• Energy generation via gassification, biorefineries, burning
Bio-energy feeding into municipal grid • Organic waste > anaerobic digestion > compost + biogas • = 2,500 kw electricity + 60,000 tonnes compost • Power utility buys electricity as part of green power programme
Bio-energy for transport • Ethanol and bio-diesel • EU target of 5.75% by 2010 from renewables for transport • Sources need scrutiny: eg imports of soy and corn from Brazil not sustainable • Diversity needs protection – land use issues – could EU supply demand?
Biofuels Priority: --should we not be reducing consumption first? • A 20% increase in fuel-efficiency standards is feasible using current technology and would save far more energy than Europe‟s biomass could produce. • World Conservation Union Sept 22, 2006
Mitsubishi (left) and Subaru (right) announced in 2005 that they would be manufacturing lithium ion-powered cars before 2010.
Solar advantages… • The sun is „free‟ • Systems are modular and can be installed anywhere • Market grown by >40% each year for almost one decade now • Solar panels pay back their embedded energy between 19-56 months and deliver 5-18 times this amount of energy over their lifetimes
Potential of solar • Globally could supply 20 % of EU consumption within 20 years • 2025 - could see 41 million people in EU receiving supply from solar electricity • 2025 - Up to 1 billion people in developing countries could be using solar electricity
Promoting Solar: eg.
Germany‟s 100,000 roofs project • Germany‟s Renewable Energy Law providing secure medium-term planning base for investment • Connecting domestic system to the grid for net metering needs grid infrastructure/ cost also a factor
Note: Ireland on same scale as Germany which is successfully developing solar
EU target: 1 millon solar roofs by 2010 • Active solar heating (solar thermal) systems more attractive financially • Heating water for domestic use = pay back in 6-8 years • Subsidies given by many governments
Wind energy could provide 29% world demand by 2030 if serious energy efficiency measures implemented at the same time
Modern wind turbines annually produces 180 times more electricity at less than half the cost per unit than its equivalent 20 years ago
• 2003 North Hoyle United Kingdom - UK's first wind farm in the Irish Sea to supply 50,000 homes with power • Noise level at 250 metres can be as low as 42 decibels (less . than average background level of noise in city residential areas) • Siting outside bird migration paths/multi use in agricultural areas
“Ambitious scenarios are predicting a substantial share of total electricity generation in the EU for wind power (12% by 2020) Wind energy penetration levels in the electricity sector have reached 20% in Denmark and about 5% in both Germany and Spain. The north German state of Schleswig-Holstein has capacity to meet 30 % of the region‟s total electricity demand, while in Navarra, in Spain, 50% of consumption is met by wind power.
Different sizes; different ownership • In Ireland Airtricity purchased $500 million wind turbines from GE for delivery June 2008 • co-operative ownership of wind farms happening in EU and now North America (Canadian farmer co-ops) • Individuals purchasing smaller consumer-size wind turbines
“renewable energy island” • 2004: wind was the second largest renewable contributor to total primary energy requirement surpassing hydro for the first time • Investments in grid infrastructure are necessary to enable the full exploitation of wind resources.
Wind energy R&D capacity set to increase in EU
•
under the „advanced scenario‟ wind energy‟s contribution to world electricity demand would range from 29% to 34% by 2050 – Assumes growing markets in South America, China, Pacific and South Asia
Tidal and wave energy
No divers are needed at any point. Servicing would be by sliding the collar holding the power train up the pile and out of the water using a lifting mechanism integral to the machine. The pile weighs 80 tonnes and 42.5 m long
Artists impression of a future farm of twin-rotor marine current turbines.
Other types of tidal energy generation
systems
World‟s first commercial wave farm by Ocean Power Delivery – Portugal 2006
The Pelamis stores energy in hydraulic accumulators
The hydraulic motors drive electrical generators to produce electricity. Power from all the joints is fed down a single umbilical cable to a junction on the sea bed. Several could be linked together.
A typical 30MW installation would occupy a square kilometre of ocean and provide sufficient electricity for 20,000 homes. Twenty of these farms could power a city such as Edinburgh.
In the UK the total wave resource is equivalent to 2-3 times current electricity demand.
Just 5% of wave energy in the UK could provide a similar generation capacity to that of the nuclear industry.
What plans for Ireland? • “Full delivery of the National Ocean Energy Strategy launched in April 2006 will enable Ireland to utilise its ocean energy resource within a decade.”
The EU aims for 22% of electricity consumption from renewable sources in 2010.
• • • • • •
Solar Wind Bio-based Tidal Wave Energy efficiency (buildings, products) • New transport designs
• How can consumers support the development of renewables? • What kind of subsidies and economic incentives? • Where can more information be found? • GET INVOLVED!
Thank you for listening Beverley Thorpe Clean Production Action www.cleanproduction.org Tel: +1 514 933 4596
[email protected] 
